Flooding in counter-current two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragland, W.A.; Ganic, E.N.

1982-01-01

Flooding is a phenomenon which is best described as the transition from counter-current to co-current flow. Early notice was taken of this phenomenon in the chemical engineering industry. Flooding also plays an important role in the field of two-phase heat transfer since it is a limit for many systems involving counter-current flow. Practical applications of flooding limited processes include wickless thermosyphons and the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) of pressurized water nuclear reactors. The phenomenon of flooding also is involved in the behavior of nuclear reactor core materials during severe accident conditions where flooding is one of the mechanisms governing the motion of the molten fuel pin cladding

Flooding in counter-current two-phase flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ragland, W.A.; Ganic, E.N.

1982-01-01

Flooding is a phenomenon which is best described as the transition from counter-current to co-current flow. Early notice was taken of this phenomenon in the chemical engineering industry. Flooding also plays an important role in the field of two-phase heat transfer since it is a limit for many systems involving counter-current flow. Practical applications of flooding limited processes include wickless thermosyphons and the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) of pressurized water nuclear reactors. The phenomenon of flooding also is involved in the behavior of nuclear reactor core materials during severe accident conditions where flooding is one of the mechanisms governing the motion of the molten fuel pin cladding.

Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

Science.gov (United States)

Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

2016-04-01

Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

2016-06-01

Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood early warning system : Design, implementation and computational modules

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.

2011-01-01

We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates

Next Generation Surfactants for Improved Chemical Flooding Technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laura Wesson; Prapas Lohateeraparp; Jeffrey Harwell; Bor-Jier Shiau

2012-05-31

The principle objective of this project was to characterize and test current and next generation high performance surfactants for improved chemical flooding technology, focused on reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian-aged (Penn) sands. In order to meet this objective the characteristic curvatures (Cc) of twenty-eight anionic surfactants selected for evaluation for use in chemical flooding formulations were determined. The Cc values ranged from -6.90 to 2.55 with the majority having negative values. Crude oil samples from nine Penn sand reservoirs were analyzed for several properties pertinent to surfactant formulation for EOR application. These properties included equivalent alkane carbon numbers, total acid numbers, and viscosity. The brine samples from these same reservoirs were analyzed for several cations and for total dissolved solids. Surfactant formulations were successfully developed for eight reservoirs by the end of the project period. These formulations were comprised of a tertiary mixture of anionic surfactants. The identities of these surfactants are considered proprietary, but suffice to say the surfactants in each mixture were comprised of varying chemical structures. In addition to the successful development of surfactant formulations for EOR, there were also two successful single-well field tests conducted. There are many aspects that must be considered in the development and implementation of effective surfactant formulations. Taking into account these other aspects, there were four additional studies conducted during this project. These studies focused on the effect of the stability of surfactant formulations in the presence of polymers with an associated examination of polymer rheology, the effect of the presence of iron complexes in the brine on surfactant stability, the potential use of sacrificial agents in order to minimize the loss of surfactant to adsorption, and the effect of electrolytes on surfactant adsorption. In these last four studies

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

Science.gov (United States)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

Global Rapid Flood Mapping System with Spaceborne SAR Data

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Fattahi, H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Fielding, E. J.; Rosen, P. A.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.

2017-12-01

As part of the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, we have developed an automated system that produces derived products for flood extent map generation using spaceborne SAR data. The system takes user's input of area of interest polygons and time window for SAR data search (pre- and post-event). Then the system automatically searches and downloads SAR data, processes them to produce coregistered SAR image pairs, and generates log amplitude ratio images from each pair. Currently the system is automated to support SAR data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A/B satellites. We have used the system to produce flood extent maps from Sentinel-1 SAR data for the May 2017 Sri Lanka floods, which killed more than 200 people and displaced about 600,000 people. Our flood extent maps were delivered to the Red Cross to support response efforts. Earlier we also responded to the historic August 2016 Louisiana floods in the United States, which claimed 13 people's lives and caused over $10 billion property damage. For this event, we made synchronized observations from space, air, and ground in close collaboration with USGS and NOAA. The USGS field crews acquired ground observation data, and NOAA acquired high-resolution airborne optical imagery within the time window of +/-2 hours of the SAR data acquisition by JAXA's ALOS-2 satellite. The USGS coordinates of flood water boundaries were used to calibrate our flood extent map derived from the ALOS-2 SAR data, and the map was delivered to FEMA for estimating the number of households affected. Based on the lessons learned from this response effort, we customized the ARIA system automation for rapid flood mapping and developed a mobile friendly web app that can easily be used in the field for data collection. Rapid automatic generation of SAR-based global flood maps calibrated with independent observations from

Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

2013-01-01

The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

The effect of the 2011 flood on agricultural chemical and sediment movement in the lower Mississippi River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, H.; Coupe, R.; Aulenbach, B.

2012-04-01

Extreme hydrologic events, such as floods, can overwhelm a surface water system's ability to process chemicals and can move large amounts of material downstream to larger surface water bodies. The Mississippi River is the 3rd largest River in the world behind the Amazon in South America and the Congo in Africa. The Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin grows much of the country's corn, soybean, rice, cotton, pigs, and chickens. This is large-scale modern day agriculture with large inputs of nutrients to increase yields and large applied amounts of crop protection chemicals, such as pesticides. The basin drains approximately 41% of the conterminous United States and is the largest contributor of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico each spring. The amount of water and nutrients discharged from the Mississippi River has been related to the size of the low dissolved oxygen area that forms off of the coast of Louisiana and Texas each summer. From March through April 2011, the upper Mississippi River basin received more than five times more precipitation than normal, which combined with snow melt from the Missouri River basin, created a historic flood event that lasted from April through July. The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of the National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN), collected samples from six sites located in the lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin, as well as, samples from the three flow-diversion structures or floodways: the Birds Point-New Madrid in Missouri and the Morganza and Bonnet Carré in Louisiana, from April through July. Samples were analyzed for nutrients, pesticides, suspended sediments, and particle size; results were used to determine the water quality of the river during the 2011 flood. Monthly loads for nitrate, phosphorus, pesticides (atrazine, glyphosate, fluometuron, and metolachlor), and sediment were calculated to quantify the movement of agricultural chemicals and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. Nutrient loads were

Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D

2013-01-01

Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

2010-01-01

The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Robert

2007-01-01

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of

Flood early warning system in I.R. of Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila

2004-01-01

At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in

Signal Processing Methods for Flood Early Warning Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.

2012-01-01

We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in

Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

Efficient Scheme for Chemical Flooding Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Braconnier Benjamin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate an efficient implicit scheme for the numerical simulation of chemical enhanced oil recovery technique for oil fields. For the sake of brevity, we only focus on flows with polymer to describe the physical and numerical models. In this framework, we consider a black oil model upgraded with the polymer modeling. We assume the polymer only transported in the water phase or adsorbed on the rock following a Langmuir isotherm. The polymer reduces the water phase mobility which can change drastically the behavior of water oil interfaces. Then, we propose a fractional step technique to resolve implicitly the system. The first step is devoted to the resolution of the black oil subsystem and the second to the polymer mass conservation. In such a way, jacobian matrices coming from the implicit formulation have a moderate size and preserve solvers efficiency. Nevertheless, the coupling between the black-oil subsystem and the polymer is not fully resolved. For efficiency and accuracy comparison, we propose an explicit scheme for the polymer for which large time step is prohibited due to its CFL (Courant-Friedrichs-Levy criterion and consequently approximates accurately the coupling. Numerical experiments with polymer are simulated : a core flood, a 5-spot reservoir with surfactant and ions and a 3D real case. Comparisons are performed between the polymer explicit and implicit scheme. They prove that our polymer implicit scheme is efficient, robust and resolves accurately the coupling physics. The development and the simulations have been performed with the software PumaFlow [PumaFlow (2013 Reference manual, release V600, Beicip Franlab].

Radar-based Flood Warning System for Houston, Texas and Its Performance Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2009-12-01

Houston has a long history of flooding problems as a serious nature. For instance, Houstonians suffered from severe flood inundation during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Radar-based flood warning systems as non-structural tools to provide accurate and timely warnings to the public and private entities are greatly needed for urban areas prone to flash floods. Fortunately, the advent of GIS, radar-based rainfall estimation using NEXRAD, and real-time delivery systems on the internet have allowed flood alert systems to provide important advanced warning of impending flood conditions. Thus, emergency personnel can take proper steps to mitigate against catastrophic losses. The Rice and Texas Medical Center (TMC) Flood Alert System (FAS2) has been delivering warning information with 2 to 3 hours of lead time to facility personnel in a readily understood format for more than 40 events since 1997. The system performed well during these major rainfall events with R square value of 93%. The current system has been improved by incorporating a new hydraulic prediction tool - FloodPlain Map Library (FPML). The FPML module aims to provide visualized information such as floodplain maps and water surface elevations instead of just showing hydrographs in real time based on NEXRAD radar rainfall data. During Hurricane Ike (September, 2008), FAS2 successfully provided precise and timely flood warning information to TMC with the peak flow difference of 3.6% and the volume difference of 5.6%; timing was excellent for this double-peaked event. With the funding from the Texas Department of Transportation, a similar flood warning system has been developed at a critical transportation pass along Highway 288 in Houston, Texas. In order to enable emergency personnel to begin flood preparation with as much lead time as possible, FAS2 is being used as a prototype to develop warning system for other flood-prone areas such as City of Sugar Land.

Improved recovery potential in mature heavy oil fields by Alkali-surfactant flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bryan, J.; Kantzas, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Tomographic Imaging and Porous Media Laboratory

2008-10-15

Primary and secondary alkali surfactant (AS) chemical flooding techniques were optimized in this study. Core flooding experiments were conducted in order to investigate the formation of emulsions in bulk liquid system due to flow through rock pores. Cores were dried and then saturated with water or brine in order to measure permeability. The floods were then performed at various injection rates followed by the AS solution. Solutions were also injected without previous waterflooding. Individual oil and water mobilities were then calculated using the experimental data. Individual phase mobilities were calculated using the total pressure gradient measured across the core. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies were conducted in order to determine emulsion formation within porous media from in situ flooding tests at 4 different locations. Data from the NMR studies were used to calculate fluid distributions and measurements of in situ emulsification during the chemical floods. The study demonstrated that the use of the surfactants resulted in the in situ formation of oil-water and water-oil emulsions. Responses from de-ionized alkali and brine AS systems were similar. The recovery mechanism blocked off water channels and provided improved sweep efficiency in the core. It was concluded that injection rates and pressure gradients for chemical floods should be lowered in order to optimize their efficiency. 26 refs., 6 tabs., 15 figs.

Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Lettenmaier, D. P.

2013-12-01

Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

Field Testing of Energy-Efficient Flood-Damage-Resistant Residential Envelope Systems Summary Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aglan, H.

2005-08-04

The primary purpose of the project was to identify materials and methods that will make the envelope of a house flood damage resistant. Flood damage resistant materials and systems are intended to be used to repair houses subsequent to flooding. This project was also intended to develop methods of restoring the envelopes of houses that have been flooded but are repairable and may be subject to future flooding. Then if the house floods again, damage will not be as extensive as in previous flood events and restoration costs and efforts will be minimized. The purpose of the first pair of field tests was to establish a baseline for typical current residential construction practice. The first test modules used materials and systems that were commonly found in residential envelopes throughout the U.S. The purpose of the second pair of field tests was to begin evaluating potential residential envelope materials and systems that were projected to be more flood-damage resistant and restorable than the conventional materials and systems tested in the first pair of tests. The purpose of testing the third slab-on-grade module was to attempt to dry flood proof the module (no floodwater within the structure). If the module could be sealed well enough to prevent water from entering, then this would be an effective method of making the interior materials and systems flood damage resistant. The third crawl space module was tested in the same manner as the previous modules and provided an opportunity to do flood tests of additional residential materials and systems. Another purpose of the project was to develop the methodology to collect representative, measured, reproducible (i.e. scientific) data on how various residential materials and systems respond to flooding conditions so that future recommendations for repairing flood damaged houses could be based on scientific data. An additional benefit of collecting this data is that it will be used in the development of a standard test

Investigation of Chemical-Foam Design as a Novel Approach toward Immiscible Foam Flooding for Enhanced Oil Recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini-Nasab, S M; Zitha, P L J

2017-10-19

Strong foam can be generated in porous media containing oil, resulting in incremental oil recovery; however, oil recovery factor is restricted. A large fraction of oil recovered by foam flooding forms an oil-in-water emulsion, so that costly methods may need to be used to separate the oil. Moreover, strong foam could create a large pressure gradient, which may cause fractures in the reservoir. This study presents a novel chemical-foam flooding process for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) from water-flooded reservoirs. The presented method involved the use of chemically designed foam to mobilize the remaining oil after water flooding and then to displace the mobilized oil to the production well. A blend of two anionic surfactant formulations was formulated for this method: (a) IOS, for achieving ultralow interfacial tension (IFT), and (b) AOS, for generating a strong foam. Experiments were performed using Bentheimer sandstone cores, where X-ray CT images were taken during foam generation to find the stability of the advancing front of foam propagation and to map the gas saturation for both the transient and the steady-state flow regimes. Then the proposed chemical-foam strategy for incremental oil recovery was tested through the coinjection of immiscible nitrogen gas and surfactant solutions with three different formulation properties in terms of IFT reduction and foaming strength capability. The discovered optimal formulation contains a foaming agent surfactant, a low IFT surfactant, and a cosolvent, which has a high foam stability and a considerably low IFT (1.6 × 10 -2 mN/m). Coinjection resulted in higher oil recovery and much less MRF than the same process with only using a foaming agent. The oil displacement experiment revealed that coinjection of gas with a blend of surfactants, containing a cosolvent, can recover a significant amount of oil (33% OIIP) over water flooding with a larger amount of clean oil and less emulsion.

Real-time flood monitoring and warning system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jirapon Sunkpho

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Flooding is one of the major disasters occurring in various parts of the world. The system for real-time monitoring ofwater conditions: water level; flow; and precipitation level, was developed to be employed in monitoring flood in Nakhon SiThammarat, a southern province in Thailand. The two main objectives of the developed system is to serve 1 as informationchannel for flooding between the involved authorities and experts to enhance their responsibilities and collaboration and2 as a web based information source for the public, responding to their need for information on water condition and flooding.The developed system is composed of three major components: sensor network, processing/transmission unit, and database/application server. These real-time data of water condition can be monitored remotely by utilizing wireless sensors networkthat utilizes the mobile General Packet Radio Service (GPRS communication in order to transmit measured data to theapplication server. We implemented a so-called VirtualCOM, a middleware that enables application server to communicatewith the remote sensors connected to a GPRS data unit (GDU. With VirtualCOM, a GDU behaves as if it is a cable directlyconnected the remote sensors to the application server. The application server is a web-based system implemented usingPHP and JAVA as the web application and MySQL as its relational database. Users can view real-time water conditionas well as the forecasting of the water condition directly from the web via web browser or via WAP. The developed systemhas demonstrated the applicability of today’s sensors in wirelessly monitor real-time water conditions.

Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

Science.gov (United States)

Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

A dimension reduction method for flood compensation operation of multi-reservoir system

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, B.; Wu, S.; Fan, Z.

2017-12-01

Multiple reservoirs cooperation compensation operations coping with uncontrolled flood play vital role in real-time flood mitigation. This paper come up with a reservoir flood compensation operation index (ResFCOI), which formed by elements of flood control storage, flood inflow volume, flood transmission time and cooperation operations period, then establish a flood cooperation compensation operations model of multi-reservoir system, according to the ResFCOI to determine a computational order of each reservoir, and lastly the differential evolution algorithm is implemented for computing single reservoir flood compensation optimization in turn, so that a dimension reduction method is formed to reduce computational complexity. Shiguan River Basin with two large reservoirs and an extensive uncontrolled flood area, is used as a case study, results show that (a) reservoirs' flood discharges and the uncontrolled flood are superimposed at Jiangjiaji Station, while the formed flood peak flow is as small as possible; (b) cooperation compensation operations slightly increase in usage of flood storage capacity in reservoirs, when comparing to rule-based operations; (c) it takes 50 seconds in average when computing a cooperation compensation operations scheme. The dimension reduction method to guide flood compensation operations of multi-reservoir system, can make each reservoir adjust its flood discharge strategy dynamically according to the uncontrolled flood magnitude and pattern, so as to mitigate the downstream flood disaster.

Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

GSM and web-based flood monitoring system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pagatpat, J C; Arellano, A C; Gerasta, O J

2015-01-01

The purpose of this project is to develop a local real-time river flood monitoring and warning system for the selected communities near Mandulog River. This study focuses only on the detection and early warning alert system (via website and/or cell phone text messages) that alerts local subscribers of potential flood events. Furthermore, this system is interactive wherein all non-registered subscribers could inquire the actual water level of the desired area location they want to monitor. An estimated time a particular river waterway will overflow is also included in the analyses. The hardware used in the design is split into several parts namely: the water level detector, GSM module, and microcontroller development board. (paper)

Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

Science.gov (United States)

Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

Evaluation of the wind pumped hydropower storage integrated flood mitigation system

Science.gov (United States)

Safi, Aishah; Basrawi, Firdaus

2018-04-01

As Wind Pumped Hydropower Storage (WPHS) need high cost to construct, it is important to study their impacts on economic and environmental aspects. Thus, this research aims to evaluate their economic and environmental performances. First, Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) was used to simulate power generation system with and without the flood reservoir. Next, the total amount of emitted air pollutant was used to evaluate the environmental impacts. It was found the wind-diesel with reservoir storage system (A-III) will have much lower NPC than other systems that do not include reservoir for flood mitigation when the cost of flood losses are included in the total Net Present Cost (NPC). The NPC for system A-III was RM 1.52 million and for diesel standalone system (A-I) is RM 10.8 million when the cost of flood losses are included in the total NPC. Between both energy systems, the amount of pollutants emitted by the A-III system was only 408 kg-CO2/year which is much less than the A-I system which is 99, 754 kg of carbon dioxide per year. To conclude, the WPHS integrated with flood mitigation system seems promising in the aspects of economic and environment.

Flood forecasting within urban drainage systems using NARX neural network.

Science.gov (United States)

Abou Rjeily, Yves; Abbas, Oras; Sadek, Marwan; Shahrour, Isam; Hage Chehade, Fadi

2017-11-01

Urbanization activity and climate change increase the runoff volumes, and consequently the surcharge of the urban drainage systems (UDS). In addition, age and structural failures of these utilities limit their capacities, and thus generate hydraulic operation shortages, leading to flooding events. The large increase in floods within urban areas requires rapid actions from the UDS operators. The proactivity in taking the appropriate actions is a key element in applying efficient management and flood mitigation. Therefore, this work focuses on developing a flooding forecast system (FFS), able to alert in advance the UDS managers for possible flooding. For a forecasted storm event, a quick estimation of the water depth variation within critical manholes allows a reliable evaluation of the flood risk. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network was chosen to develop the FFS as due to its calculation nature it is capable of relating water depth variation in manholes to rainfall intensities. The campus of the University of Lille is used as an experimental site to test and evaluate the FFS proposed in this paper.

Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

2017-12-01

Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

Flood scour monitoring system using fiber Bragg grating sensors

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yung Bin; Lai, Jihn Sung; Chang, Kuo Chun; Li, Lu Sheng

2006-12-01

The exposure and subsequent undermining of pier/abutment foundations through the scouring action of a flood can result in the structural failure of a bridge. Bridge scour is one of the leading causes of bridge failure. Bridges subject to periods of flood/high flow require monitoring during those times in order to protect the traveling public. In this study, an innovative scour monitoring system using button-like fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors was developed and applied successfully in the field during the Aere typhoon period in 2004. The in situ FBG scour monitoring system has been demonstrated to be robust and reliable for real-time scour-depth measurements, and to be valid for indicating depositional depth at the Dadu Bridge. The field results show that this system can function well and survive a typhoon flood.

Geographical information system (GIS) application for flood prediction at Sungai Sembrong

Science.gov (United States)

Kamin, Masiri; Ahmad, Nor Farah Atiqah; Razali, Siti Nooraiin Mohd; Hilaham, Mashuda Mohamad; Rahman, Mohamad Abdul; Ngadiman, Norhayati; Sahat, Suhaila

2017-10-01

The occurrence of flood is one of natural disaster that often beset Malaysia. The latest incident that happened in 2007 was the worst occurrence of floods ever be set in Johor. Reporting floods mainly focused on rising water rising levels, so about once a focus on the area of flood delineation. A study focused on the effectiveness of using Geographic Information System (GIS) to predict the flood by taking Sg. Sembrong, Batu Pahat, Johor as study area. This study combined hydrological model and water balance model in the display to show the expected flood area for future reference. The minimum, maximum and average rainfall data for January 2007 at Sg Sembrong were used in this study. The data shows that flood does not occurs at the minimum and average rainfall of 17.2mm and 2mm respectively. At maximum rainfall, 203mm, shows the flood area was 9983 hectares with the highest level of the water depth was 2m. The result showed that the combination of hydrological models and water balance model in GIS is very suitable to be used as a tool to obtain preliminary information on flood immediately. Besides that, GIS system is a very powerful tool used in hydrology engineering to help the engineer and planner to imagine the real situation of flood events, doing flood analysis, problem solving and provide a rational, accurate and efficient decision making.

Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

Science.gov (United States)

Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

2017-11-01

Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

2016-02-01

Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data

Understanding the geomorphology of macrochannel systems for flood risk management in Queensland, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky

2016-04-01

The year 2010-2011 was the wettest on record for the state of Queensland, Australia producing catastrophic floods. A tropical low pressure system in 2013 delivered further extreme flood events across South East Queensland (SEQ) which prompted state and local governments to conduct studies into flood magnitude and frequency in the region and catchment factors contributing to flood hazards. The floods in the region are strongly influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, but also modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) which leads to flood and drought dominated regimes and high hydrological variability. One geomorphic feature in particular exerted a significant control on the transmission speed, the magnitude of flood inundation and resultant landscape resilience. This feature was referred to as a 'macrochannel', a term used to describe a 'large-channel' which has bankfull recurrence intervals generally greater than 10 years. The macrochannels display non-linear downstream hydraulic geometry which leads to zones of flood expansion (when hydraulic geometry decreases) and zones of flood contraction (when hydraulic geometry increases). The pattern of contraction and expansion zones determines flood hazard zones. The floods caused significant wet flow bank mass failures that mobilised over 1,000,000 m3 of sediment in one subcatchment. Results suggest that the wetflow bank mass failures are a stage in a cyclical evolution process which maintains the macrochannel morphology, hence channel resilience to floods. Chronological investigations further show the macrochannels are laterally stable and identify periods of heightened flood activity over the past millennium and upper limits on flood magnitude. This paper elaborates on the results of the geomorphic investigations on Lockyer Creek in SEQ and how the results have alerted managers and policy makers to the different flood responses of these systems and how flood risk management plans can

Prototypes of risk-based flood forecasting systems in the Netherlands and Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bachmann D.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood forecasting, warning and emergency response are important components of flood management. Currently, the model-based prediction of discharge and/or water level in a river is common practice for operational flood forecasting. Based on the prediction of these values decisions about specific emergency measures are made within emergency response. However, the information provided for decision support is often restricted to pure hydrological or hydraulic aspects of a flood. Information about weak sections within the flood defences, flood prone areas and assets at risk in the protected areas are rarely used in current early warning and response systems. This information is often available for strategic planning, but is not in an appropriate format for operational purposes. This paper presents the extension of existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, such as probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the first results from two prototype applications of the new developed concept: The first prototype is applied to the Rotterdam area situated in the western part of the Netherlands. The second pilot study focusses on a rural area between the cities of Mantua and Ferrara along the Po river (Italy.

Vulnerability assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Liu; Ouyang, Min; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Yan, Yongze

2015-01-01

The economy of China and the travel needs of its citizens depend significantly on the continuous and reliable services provided by its railway system. However, this system is subject to frequent natural hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, and debris flow. A mechanism to assess the railway system vulnerability under these hazards and the design of effective vulnerability mitigation strategies are essential to the reliable functioning of the railway system. This article proposes a comprehensive methodology to quantitatively assess the railway system vulnerability under floods using historical data and GIS technology. The proposed methodology includes a network representation of the railway system, the generation of flood event scenarios, a method to estimate railway link vulnerability, and a quantitative vulnerability value computation approach. The railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption related to the number of interrupted trains and the durations of interruption. A maintenance strategy to mitigate vulnerability is proposed that simultaneously considers link vulnerability and number of trains using it. Numerical experiments show that the flood-induced vulnerability of the proposed representation of the Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly value in July, and the proposed vulnerability mitigation strategy is more effective compared to other strategies. - Highlights: • We propose a methodology to assess flood-induced railway system vulnerability. • Railway system vulnerability is evaluated in terms of its service disruption. • Chinese railway system reaches its maximum monthly vulnerability in July. • We propose an effective maintenance strategy considering link vulnerability and burden

Flood risk and economically optimal safety targets for coastal flood defense systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dupuits, E.J.C.; Schweckendiek, T.

2015-01-01

A front defense can improve the reliability of a rear defense in a coastal flood defense system. The influence of this interdependency on the accompanying economically optimal safety targets of both front and rear defense is investigated. The results preliminary suggest that the optimal safety level

Information support systems for cultural heritage protection against flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Nedvedova

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The goal of this paper is to present use of different kind of software applications to create complex support system for protection of cultural heritage against flooding. The project is very complex and it tries to cover the whole area of the problem from prevention to liquidation of aftermath effects. We used GIS for mapping the risk areas, ontology systems for vulnerability assessment application and the BORM method (Business Object Relation Modelling for flood protection system planning guide. Those modern technologies helped us to gather a lot of information in one place and provide the knowledge to the broad audience.

A Conceptual Flash Flood Early Warning System for Africa, Based on Terrestrial Microwave Links and Flash Flood Guidance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joost C. B. Hoedjes

2014-04-01

Full Text Available A conceptual flash flood early warning system for developing countries is described. The system uses rainfall intensity data from terrestrial microwave communication links and the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite, i.e., two systems that are already in place and operational. Flash flood early warnings are based on a combination of the Flash Flood Guidance method and a hydrological model. The system will be maintained and operated through a public-private partnership, which includes a mobile telephone operator, a national meteorological service and an emergency relief service. The mobile telephone operator acts as both the supplier of raw input data and the disseminator of early warnings. The early warning system could significantly reduce the number of fatalities due to flash floods, improve the efficiency of disaster risk reduction efforts and play an important role in strengthening the resilience to climate change of developing countries in Africa. This paper describes the system that is currently being developed for Kenya.

Chemical Flooding in Heavy-Oil Reservoirs: From Technical Investigation to Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Si Le Van

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Heavy-oil resources represent a large percentage of global oil and gas reserves, however, owing to the high viscosity, enhanced oil recovery (EOR techniques are critical issues for extracting this type of crude oil from the reservoir. According to the survey data in Oil & Gas Journal, thermal methods are the most widely utilized in EOR projects in heavy oil fields in the US and Canada, and there are not many successful chemical flooding projects for heavy oil reported elsewhere in the world. However, thermal methods such as steam injection might be restricted in cases of thin formations, overlying permafrost, or reservoir depths over 4500 ft, for which chemical flooding becomes a better option for recovering crude oil. Moreover, owing to the considerable fluctuations in the oil price, chemical injection plans should be employed consistently in terms of either technical or economic viewpoints. The numerical studies in this work aim to clarify the predominant chemical injection schemes among the various combinations of chemical agents involving alkali (A, surfactant (S and polymer (P for specific heavy-oil reservoir conditions. The feasibilities of all potential injection sequences are evaluated in the pre-evaluation stage in order to select the most efficient injection scheme according to the variation in the oil price which is based on practical market values. Finally, optimization procedures in the post-evaluation stage are carried out for the most economic injection plan by an effective mathematic tool with the purpose of gaining highest Net Present Value (NPV of the project. In technical terms, the numerical studies confirm the predominant performances of sequences in which alkali-surfactant-polymer (ASP solution is injected after the first preflushing water whereby the recovery factor can be higher than 47%. In particular, the oil production performances are improved by injecting a buffering viscous fluid right after the first chemical slug

Early Warning System of Flood Disaster Based on Ultrasonic Sensors and Wireless Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Indrasari, W.; Iswanto, B. H.; Andayani, M.

2018-04-01

A flood disaster provides considerable losses to the people who live around the river. To mitigate losses of material due to flood disaster required an early warning system of flood disaster. For that reason, it necessary to design a system that provide alert to the people prior the flood disaster. And this paper describes development of a device for early detection system of flood disasters. This device consists of two ultrasonic sensors as a water level detector, and a water flow sensor as a water flow velocity sensor. The wireless technology and GSM is used as an information medium. The system is designed based on water level conditions in the Katulampa Dam, Bogor. Characterization of water level detector showed that the device effectively works in a range of water level of 14-250 cm, with a maximum relative error of 4.3%. Meanwhile the wireless works properly as far as 75 m, and the SMS transmission time is 8.20 second.

Iowa Flood Information System: Towards Integrated Data Management, Analysis and Visualization

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities

The state of the art of flood forecasting - Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Pappenberger, F.; Salamon, P.; Bogner, K.; Burek, P.; de Roo, A.

2010-09-01

Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Because of the specific characteristics of each catchment, varying data availability and end-user demands, the design of the best flood forecasting system may differ from catchment to catchment. However, despite the differences in concept and data needs, there is one underlying issue that spans across all systems. There has been an growing awareness and acceptance that uncertainty is a fundamental issue of flood forecasting and needs to be dealt with at the different spatial and temporal scales as well as the different stages of the flood generating processes. Today, operational flood forecasting centres change increasingly from single deterministic forecasts to probabilistic forecasts with various representations of the different contributions of uncertainty. The move towards these so-called Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in flood forecasting represents the state of the art in forecasting science, following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting (Buizza et al., 2005) and paralleling the move towards ensemble forecasting in other related disciplines such as climate change predictions. The use of HEPS has been internationally fostered by initiatives such as "The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), created with the aim to investigate how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes. The advantages of quantifying the different contributions of uncertainty as well as the overall uncertainty to obtain reliable and useful flood forecasts also for extreme events

Health protection and risks for rescuers in cases of floods.

Science.gov (United States)

Janev Holcer, Nataša; Jeličić, Pavle; Grba Bujević, Maja; Važanić, Damir

2015-03-01

Floods can pose a number of safety and health hazards for flood-affected populations and rescuers and bring risk of injuries, infections, and diseases due to exposure to pathogenic microorganisms and different biological and chemical contaminants. The risk factors and possible health consequences for the rescuers involved in evacuation and rescuing operations during the May 2014 flood crisis in Croatia are shown, as well as measures for the prevention of injuries and illnesses. In cases of extreme floods, divers play a particularly important role in rescuing and first-response activities. Rescuing in contaminated floodwaters means that the used equipment such as diving suits should be disinfected afterwards. The need for securing the implementation of minimal health and safety measures for involved rescuers is paramount. Data regarding injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers are relatively scarce, indicating the need for medical surveillance systems that would monitor and record all injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers in order to ensure sound epidemiological data. The harmful effects of flooding can be reduced by legislation, improvement of flood forecasting, establishing early warning systems, and appropriate planning and education.

Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Arduino

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

OpenAIRE

Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

2011-01-01

Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

Science.gov (United States)

Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then

Performance of vapor compression systems with compressor oil flooding and regeneration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bell, Ian H.; Groll, Eckhard A.; Braun, James E. [Purdue University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 140 S. Martin Jischke Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47906 (United States)

2011-01-15

Vapor compression refrigeration technology has seen great improvement over the last several decades in terms of cycle efficiency through a concerted effort of manufacturers, regulators, and research engineers. As the standard vapor compression systems approach practical limits, cycle modifications should be investigated to increase system efficiency and capacity. One possible means of increasing cycle efficiency is to flood the compressor with a large quantity of oil to achieve a quasi-isothermal compression process, in addition to using a regenerator to increase refrigerant subcooling. In theory, compressor flooding and regeneration can provide a significant increase in system efficiency over the standard vapor compression system. The effectiveness of compressor flooding and regeneration increases as the temperature lift of the system increases. Therefore, this technology is particularly well suited towards lower evaporating temperatures and high ambient temperatures as seen in supermarket refrigeration applications. While predicted increases in cycle efficiency are over 40% for supermarket refrigeration applications, this technology is still very beneficial for typical air-conditioning applications, for which improvements in cycle efficiency greater than 5% are predicted. It has to be noted though that the beneficial effects of compressor flooding can only be realized if a regenerator is used to exchange heat between the refrigerant vapor exiting the evaporator and the liquid exiting the condenser. (author)

Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

Science.gov (United States)

Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

2010-05-01

Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

Return period assessment of urban pluvial floods through modelling of rainfall–flood response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tuyls, Damian Murla; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

2018-01-01

Intense rainfall in urban areas can often generate severe flood impacts. Consequently, it is crucial to design systems to minimize potential flood damages. Traditional, simple design of urban drainage systems assumes agreement between rainfall return period and its consequent flood return period......; however, this does not always apply. Hydraulic infrastructures found in urban drainage systems can increase system heterogeneity and perturb the impact of severe rainfall response. In this study, a surface flood return period assessment was carried out at Lystrup (Denmark), which has received the impact...... of flooding in recent years. A 35 years' rainfall dataset together with a coupled 1D/2D surface and network model was used to analyse and assess flood return period response. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall and flood return periods indicating that linear rainfall–runoff relationships will...

Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness

Science.gov (United States)

Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

Science.gov (United States)

Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

2010-12-01

During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Revilla Romero, B.

2016-01-01

Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

Towards modelling flood protection investment as a coupled human and natural system

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, P. E.; O'Donnell, G.

2014-01-01

Due to a number of recent high-profile flood events and the apparent threat from global warming, governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains. However, adopting a proactive approach as a universal strategy is not affordable. It has been argued that delaying expensive and essentially irreversible capital decisions could be a prudent strategy in situations with high future uncertainty. This paper firstly uses Monte Carlo simulation to explore the performance of proactive and reactive investment strategies using a rational cost-benefit approach in a natural system with varying levels of persistence/interannual variability in annual maximum floods. It is found that, as persistence increases, there is a change in investment strategy optimality from proactive to reactive. This could have implications for investment strategies under the increasingly variable climate that is expected with global warming. As part of the emerging holistic approaches to flood risk management, there is increasing emphasis on stakeholder participation in determining where and when flood protection investments are made, and so flood risk management is becoming more people-centred. As a consequence, multiple actors are involved in the decision-making process, and the social sciences are assuming an increasingly important role in flood risk management. There is a need for modelling approaches which can couple the natural and human system elements. It is proposed that coupled human and natural system (CHANS) modelling could play an important role in understanding the motivations, actions and influence of citizens and institutions and how these impact on the effective delivery of flood protection investment. A framework for using agent-based modelling of human activities leading to flood investments is outlined, and some of the challenges associated with implementation are discussed.

Risk-Based Evaluation of Flood Warning and Preparedness Systems. Volume 2 - Technical

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Haimes, Yacov Y

1996-01-01

... for both structural and nonstructural measures. The unifing theme of these results is that the design and evaluation of structural and nonstructural measures for flood mitigation, including flood warning and preparedness systems, is an integrative...

Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

2018-04-01

A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

Numerical approach for enhanced oil recovery with surfactant flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadegh Keshtkar

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The remained oil in the reservoir after conventional water-flooding processes, forms a dispersed phase in the form of oil drops which is trapped by capillary forces and is almost about 70% of the original oil in the place (OOIP. To reduce oil residual saturation in laboratory experiments and field projects, surfactant flooding is effective via decreasing the interfacial tension mobility ratio between oil and water phases. Estimation of the role of design variables, like chemical concentrations, partition coefficient and injection rate in different performance quantities, considering a heterogeneous and multiphase oil reservoir is a critical stage for optimal design. Increasing demand for oil production from water-flooded reservoirs has caused an increasing interest in surfactant-polymer (SP and alkali-surfactant-polymer (ASP. Modeling minimizes the risk of high cost of chemicals by improving our insight of process. In the present paper, a surfactant compositional flood model for a three-component (water, petroleum and surfactant, two phase (aqueous and oleic system is studied. A homogeneous, two-dimensional, isothermal reservoir with no free gas or alkali is assumed. The governing equations are in three categories: the continuity equations for the transport of each component, Darcy's equation for the transport of each phase and other auxiliary equations. The equations are solved by finite-differences using a procedure implicit in pressure and explicit in saturation. The validation of the model is achieved through comparing the modeling results with CMG simulators and Buckley–Leverett theory. The results of modeling showed good agreement with CMG results, and the comparison with Buckley–Leverett theory is explained according to different assumptions. After validation of the model, in order to investigate sensitivity analysis, the effects of system variables (partition coefficient, surface tension, oil viscosity and surface injection

Development of Real-Time System for Urban Flooding by Surcharge of Storm Drainge and River Inundation

Science.gov (United States)

Shim, J. B.; Won, C. Y.; Park, J.; Lee, K.

2017-12-01

Korea experiences frequent flood disasters, which cause considerable economic losses and damages to towns and farms. Especially, a regional torrential storm is about 98.5mm/hr on September 21, 2010 in Seoul. The storm exceeds the capacity of urban drainage system of 75mm/hr, and 9,419 houses. How to monitor and control the urban flood disasters is an important issue in Korea. To mitigate the flood damage, a customizing system was developed to estimate urban floods and inundation using by integrating drainage system data and river information database which are managed by local governments and national agencies. In the case of Korean urban city, there are a lot of detention ponds and drainage pumping stations on end of drainage system and flow is going into river. The drainage pumping station, it is very important hydraulic facility for flood control between river and drainage system. So, it is possible to occur different patterns of flood inundation according to operation rule of drainage pumping station. A flood disaster is different damage as how to operate drainage pumping station and plan operation rule.

Aquatic chemistry of flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

2015-04-01

During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and

A Real-Time Measurement System for Long-Life Flood Monitoring and Warning Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Skarmeta Gómez

2012-03-01

Full Text Available A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data inmany sparse locations during flood events.

Flood Protection Decision Making Within a Coupled Human and Natural System

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donnell, Greg; O'Connell, Enda

2013-04-01

Due to the perceived threat from climate change, prediction under changing climatic and hydrological conditions has become a dominant theme of hydrological research. Much of this research has been climate model-centric, in which GCM/RCM climate projections have been used to drive hydrological system models to explore potential impacts that should inform adaptation decision-making. However, adaptation fundamentally involves how humans may respond to increasing flood and drought hazards by changing their strategies, activities and behaviours which are coupled in complex ways to the natural systems within which they live and work. Humans are major agents of change in hydrological systems, and representing human activities and behaviours in coupled human and natural hydrological system models is needed to gain insight into the complex interactions that take place, and to inform adaptation decision-making. Governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains from the perceived increasing flood hazard. However, adopting this as a universal strategy everywhere is not affordable, particularly in times of economic stringency and given uncertainty about future climatic conditions. It has been suggested that the assumption of stationarity, which has traditionally been invoked in making hydrological risk assessments, is no longer tenable. However, before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted, the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. Much can be learned by focussing on natural climate variability and its inherent changes in assessing alternative adaptation strategies. A stationary stochastic multisite flood hazard model has been developed that can exhibit increasing variability/persistence in annual maximum floods, starting with the traditional assumption of

Innovative solutions in monitoring systems in flood protection

Science.gov (United States)

Sekuła, Klaudia; Połeć, Marzena; Borecka, Aleksandra

2018-02-01

The article presents the possibilities of ISMOP - IT System of Levee Monitoring. This system is able to collecting data from the reference and experimental control and measurement network. The experimental levee is build in a 1:1 scale and located in the village of Czernichow, near Cracow. The innovation is the utilization of a series of sensors monitoring the changes in the body of levee. It can be done by comparing the results of numerical simulations with results from installed two groups of sensors: reference sensors and experimental sensors. The reference control and measurement sensors create network based on pore pressure and temperature sensors. Additionally, it contains the fiber-optic technology. The second network include design experimental sensors, constructed for the development of solutions that can be used in existing flood embankments. The results are important to create the comprehensive and inexpensive monitoring system, which could be helpful for state authorities and local governments in flood protection.

Flood AI: An Intelligent Systems for Discovery and Communication of Disaster Knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

2017-12-01

Communities are not immune from extreme events or natural disasters that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. Improving resilience to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters is critical to reduce the impacts of extreme events. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This project presents an intelligent system, Flood AI, for flooding to improve societal preparedness by providing a knowledge engine using voice recognition, artificial intelligence, and natural language processing based on a generalized ontology for disasters with a primary focus on flooding. The knowledge engine utilizes the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery channels on flooding by developing a data acquisition and processing framework utilizing environmental observations, forecast models, and knowledge bases. Communication channels of the framework includes web-based systems, agent-based chat bots, smartphone applications, automated web workflows, and smart home devices, opening the knowledge discovery for flooding to many unique use cases.

System robustness analysis in support of flood and drought risk management

CERN Document Server

Mens, MJP

2015-01-01

Floods and droughts have an increasing impact on societies worldwide. It is unlikely that the provision of flood protection infrastructure and reservoirs will eliminate this problem, especially as extreme events are expected to increase in probability and magnitude as a result of climate change. For this reason, the focus of water management has shifted to a risk-based approach in recent years; but this also has its limitations.This book examines system robustness as a new perspective on flood and drought risk management. The concept of robustness is familiar from other areas, such as engineer

Investigation of certain physical–chemical features of oil recovery by an optimized alkali–surfactant–foam (ASF) system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hosseini Nasab, S.M.; Zitha, P.L.J.

2017-01-01

The objective of this study is to discover a synergistic effect between foam stability in bulk and micro-emulsion phase behaviour to design a high-performance chemical system for an optimized alkaline–surfactant–foam (ASF) flooding for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The focus is on the interaction

A critical approach to some new ideas about the Dutch flood risk system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijcken, T.

2015-01-01

Decisions on measures to improve a flood risk system are in part supported by general ideas about how the system works and should work. After the completion of the Dutch Delta Works around 1990, such new ideas regarding flood risk emerged. Some of these may be appealing at first, but appear

On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beatriz Revilla-Romero

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012–2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS. Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors. Results reveal that: (1 general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2 large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3 the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.

Flooding and Flood Management

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

2016-01-01

Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

Urban pluvial flood prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2016-01-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

Numerical simulation of in-situ DNAPL remediation by alcohol flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Falta, R.W.; Brame, S.E. [Earth Science Department, Clemson, SC (United States)

1995-03-01

The removal of residual saturations of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) from below the water table using alcohol solutions is under investigation as a potential remediation tool. Alcohol flooding reduces the interfacial tension (IFT) an density difference between the aqueous and DNAPL phases, and increases the chemical solubility in the aqueous phase. Depending on the partitioning behavior of the alcohol/chemical system, DNAPL can be removed by either mobilization as a separate phase or through enhanced dissolution. A new three dimensional multiphase numerical simulator has been developed for modeling this process. The code is based on the general TOUGH2 Integral Finite Difference formulation for multiphase transport with modifications to account for the complex behavior of an alcohol/water/DNAPL system. The alcohol flood code uses a special equation of state module for computing phase compositions, IFT, saturations, densities, viscosities, relative permeabilities, and capillary pressures during each time step. This equation of state is based on a numerical interpolation of experimentally determined ternary phase data. The code was designed so that it can readily be applied to other three-component, two-phase problems such as surfactant and solvent floods given appropriate ternary data. Comparisons of simulation results with column experiments performed at Clemson University were used to validate the simulator.

Experimental study of the passive flooding system in the WWER-1000 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malyshev, A.B.; Efanov, A.D.; Kalyakin, S.G.

2002-01-01

The design solution of the passive flooding system in the WWER-1000 reactor core with the V-392 reactor facility and the scheme of the GE-2 large-scale thermohydraulic stand for substantiation of its functions are presented. The proposals, improving the efficiency of the system are developed on the basis of the experimental studies on the equipment input-output operational characteristics and the recommendations on the substantiation of the function of the reactor core flooding system are given [ru

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Murla, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS......), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g.DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may...... cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized...

The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

Science.gov (United States)

Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert

2012-01-01

Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

Flood and Traffic Wireless Monitoring System for Smart Cities

KAUST Repository

Moussa, Mustafa

2016-10-01

The convergence of computation, communication and sensing has led to the emergence of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), which allow distributed monitoring of physical phenomena over extended areas. In this thesis, we focus on a dual flood and traffic flow WSN applicable to urban environments. This fixed sensing system is based on the combination of ultrasonic range-finding with remote temperature sensing, and can sense both phenomena with a high degree of accuracy. This enables the monitoring of urban areas to lessen the impact of catastrophic flood events, by monitoring flood parameters and traffic flow to enable public evacuation and early warning, allocate the resources efficiently or control the traffic to make cities more productive and smarter. We present an implementation of the device, and illustrate its performance in water level estimation and rain detection using a novel combination of L1 regularized reconstruction and machine learning algorithms on a 6-month dataset involving four different sensors. Our results show that water level can be estimated with an uncertainty of 1 cm using a combination of thermal sensing and ultrasonic distance measurements. The demonstration of the performance included the detection of an actual flash flood event using two sensors located in Umm Al Qura University (Mecca). Finally, we show that Lagrangian (mobile) sensors can be used to inexpensively increase the performance of the system with respect to traffic sensing. These sensors are based on Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs), which have never been investigated in the context of traffic ow monitoring before. We investigate the divergence of the speed estimation process, the lack of the calibration parameters of the system, and the problem of reconstructing vehicle trajectories evolving in a given transportation network. To address these problems, we propose an automatic calibration algorithm applicable to IMU-equipped ground vehicles, and an L1 regularized least squares

An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

2012-02-01

An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

Development of alkaline/surfactant/polymer (ASP flooding technology for recovery of Karazhanbas oil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Birzhan Zhappasbaev

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The tertiary oil recovery methods like alkaline, surfactant and polymer (ASP flooding are very perspective in order to achieve the synergetic effect out of the different impacts which are caused by these chemicals, which affect oil and water filtration in the reservoir and increase oil recovery. In this communication, we consider the applicability of hydrophobically modified polyampholyte – poly(hexadecylaminocrotonatebetaine (PHDACB as ASP flooding agent for recovery of oil from Karazhanbas oilfield. As “polysoap”, the aqueous solution of PHDACB dissolved in aqueous KOH was used. This system combines the advantages of alkaline, surfactant and polymer and exhibits the synergistic effect. The laboratory results showed that the ASP flooding considerably increases the oil recovery in addition to water flooding. In perspective, the ASP flooding may substitute the steam injection and other thermal enhanced oil recovery (EOR technologies.

Estimation of Internal Flooding Frequency for Screening Analysis of Flooding PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Jun Eon

2005-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the internal frequency for the quantitative screening analysis of the flooding PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) with the appropriate data and estimation method. In the case of the existing flood PSA for domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plant), the screening analysis was performed firstly and then detailed analysis was performed for the area not screened out. For the quantitative screening analysis, the plant area based flood frequency by MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimation) method was used, while the component based flood frequency is used for the detailed analysis. The existing quantitative screening analysis for domestic NPPs have used data from all LWRs (Light Water Reactor), namely PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) and BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) for the internal flood frequency of the auxiliary building and turbine building. However, in the case of the primary auxiliary building, the applicability of the data from all LWRs needs to be examined carefully because of the significant difference in equipments between the PWR and BWR structure. NUREG/CR-5750 suggested the Bayesian update method with Jeffrey's noninformative prior to estimate the initiating event frequency for the flood. It, however, did not describe any procedure of the flood PSA. Recently, Fleming and Lydell suggested the internal flooding frequency in the unit of the plant operation year-pipe length (in meter) by pipe size of each specific system which is susceptible to the flooding such as the service water system and the circulating water system. They used the failure rate, the rupture conditional probability given the failure to estimate the internal flooding frequency, and the Bayesian update to reduce uncertainties. To perform the quantitative screening analysis with the method, it requires pipe length by each pipe size of the specific system per each divided area to change the concept of the component based frequency to the concept of the plant area

Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: Developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Yew

2018-04-26

The effects of urbanization and climate change impact to the flood risk of two governorates in Egypt were analyzed. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to the annual rainfall, rainfall anomaly, and temperature anomaly of both study sites. Next, change points and trends of the annual and monthly surface runoff data generated by the Curve Number method over 1948-2014 were also analyzed to detect the effects of urbanization on the surface runoff. Lastly, a GIS decision support system was developed to delineate flood susceptibility zones for the two governorates. The significant decline in annual rainfall and rainfall anomaly after 1994 at 8.96 and 15.3 mm/decade respectively was likely due to climate change impact, especially significant warming trend since 1976 at 0.16 °C/decade, though that could partly be attributed to rapid urbanization. Since 1970, effects of urbanization to flood risk are clear, because despite a decline in rainfall, the annual surface runoff and runoff anomaly show positive trends of 12.7 and of 14.39 mm/decade, respectively. Eleven flood contributing factors have been identified and used in mapping flood susceptibility zones of both sites. In the El-Beheira governorate, 9.2%, 17.9%, 32.3%, 28.3% and 12.3% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Similarly, in Alexandria governorate, 15.9%, 33.5%, 41%, 8.8% and 0.8% of its area are categorized as very high, high, moderate, low and very low susceptibility to flooding, respectively. Very high and high susceptible zones are located in the northern, northwestern and northeastern parts of the Beheira governorates, and in the northeastern and northwestern parts of Alexandria. The flood related information obtained in this study will be useful to assist mitigating potential flood damages and future land use planning of both governorates of Egypt. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

A Bayesian-Based System to Assess Wave-Driven Flooding Hazards on Coral Reef-Lined Coasts

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, S. G.; Storlazzi, C. D.; van Dongeren, A. R.; Tissier, M. F. S.; Reniers, A. J. H. M.

2017-12-01

Many low-elevation, coral reef-lined, tropical coasts are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and wave-induced flooding. The considerable morphological diversity of these coasts and the variability of the hydrodynamic forcing that they are exposed to make predicting wave-induced flooding a challenge. A process-based wave-resolving hydrodynamic model (XBeach Non-Hydrostatic, "XBNH") was used to create a large synthetic database for use in a "Bayesian Estimator for Wave Attack in Reef Environments" (BEWARE), relating incident hydrodynamics and coral reef geomorphology to coastal flooding hazards on reef-lined coasts. Building on previous work, BEWARE improves system understanding of reef hydrodynamics by examining the intrinsic reef and extrinsic forcing factors controlling runup and flooding on reef-lined coasts. The Bayesian estimator has high predictive skill for the XBNH model outputs that are flooding indicators, and was validated for a number of available field cases. It was found that, in order to accurately predict flooding hazards, water depth over the reef flat, incident wave conditions, and reef flat width are the most essential factors, whereas other factors such as beach slope and bed friction due to the presence or absence of corals are less important. BEWARE is a potentially powerful tool for use in early warning systems or risk assessment studies, and can be used to make projections about how wave-induced flooding on coral reef-lined coasts may change due to climate change.Plain Language SummaryLow-lying tropical coasts fronted by coral reefs are threatened by the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and flooding caused by waves. However, the reefs on these coasts differ widely in their shape, size, and physical characteristics; the wave and water level conditions affecting these coastlines also vary in space and time. These factors make it difficult to predict flooding caused by waves along coral reef-lined coasts. We

A Multi-Scale Flood Monitoring System Based on Fully Automatic MODIS and TerraSAR-X Processing Chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrico Stein

2013-10-01

Full Text Available A two-component fully automated flood monitoring system is described and evaluated. This is a result of combining two individual flood services that are currently under development at DLR’s (German Aerospace Center Center for Satellite based Crisis Information (ZKI to rapidly support disaster management activities. A first-phase monitoring component of the system systematically detects potential flood events on a continental scale using daily-acquired medium spatial resolution optical data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. A threshold set controls the activation of the second-phase crisis component of the system, which derives flood information at higher spatial detail using a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR based satellite mission (TerraSAR-X. The proposed activation procedure finds use in the identification of flood situations in different spatial resolutions and in the time-critical and on demand programming of SAR satellite acquisitions at an early stage of an evolving flood situation. The automated processing chains of the MODIS (MFS and the TerraSAR-X Flood Service (TFS include data pre-processing, the computation and adaptation of global auxiliary data, thematic classification, and the subsequent dissemination of flood maps using an interactive web-client. The system is operationally demonstrated and evaluated via the monitoring two recent flood events in Russia 2013 and Albania/Montenegro 2013.

Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

2017-04-01

Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

Operational flood forecasting system of Umbria Region "Functional Centre

Science.gov (United States)

Berni, N.; Pandolfo, C.; Stelluti, M.; Ponziani, F.; Viterbo, A.

2009-04-01

The hydrometeorological alert office (called "Decentrate Functional Centre" - CFD) of Umbria Region, in central Italy, is the office that provides technical tools able to support decisions when significant flood/landslide events occur, furnishing 24h support for the whole duration of the emergency period, according to the national directive DPCM 27 February 2004 concerning the "Operating concepts for functional management of national and regional alert system during flooding and landslide events for civil protection activities purposes" that designs, within the Italian Civil Defence Emergency Management System, a network of 21 regional Functional Centres coordinated by a central office at the National Civil Protection Department in Rome. Due to its "linking" role between Civil Protection "real time" activities and environmental/planning "deferred time" ones, the Centre is in charge to acquire and collect both real time and quasi-static data: quantitative data from monitoring networks (hydrometeorological stations, meteo radar, ...), meteorological forecasting models output, Earth Observation data, hydraulic and hydrological simulation models, cartographic and thematic GIS data (vectorial and raster type), planning studies related to flooding areas mapping, dam managing plans during flood events, non instrumental information from direct control of "territorial presidium". A detailed procedure for the management of critical events was planned, also in order to define the different role of various authorities and institutions involved. Tiber River catchment, of which Umbria region represents the main upper-medium portion, includes also regional trans-boundary issues very important to cope with, especially for what concerns large dam behavior and management during heavy rainfall. The alert system is referred to 6 different warning areas in which the territory has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels according

A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang

2016-04-01

Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms

Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2014-01-01

context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical......, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand......Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction...

Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

Science.gov (United States)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

Chemical Method to Improve CO{sub 2} Flooding Sweep Efficiency for Oil Recovery Using SPI-CO{sub 2} Gels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burns, Lyle D.

2009-04-14

The problem in CO{sub 2} flooding lies with its higher mobility causing low conformance or sweep efficiency. This is an issue in oilfield applications where an injected fluid or gas used to mobilize and produce the oil in a marginal field has substantially higher mobility (function of viscosity and density and relative permeability) relative to the crude oil promoting fingering and early breakthrough. Conformance is particularly critical in CO{sub 2} oilfield floods where the end result is less oil recovered and substantially higher costs related to the CO{sub 2}. The SPI-CO{sub 2} (here after called “SPI”) gel system is a unique silicate based gel system that offers a technically effective solution to the conformance problem with CO{sub 2} floods. This SPI gel system remains a low viscosity fluid until an external initiator (CO{sub 2}) triggers gelation. This is a clear improvement over current technologies where the gels set up as a function of time, regardless of where it is placed in the reservoir. In those current systems, the internal initiator is included in the injected fluid for water shut off applications. In this new research effort, the CO{sub 2} is an external initiator contacted after SPI gel solution placement. This concept ensures in the proper water wet reservoir environment that the SPI gel sets up in the precise high permeability path followed by the CO{sub 2}, therefore improving sweep efficiency to a greater degree than conventional systems. In addition, the final SPI product in commercial quantities is expected to be low cost over the competing systems. This Phase I research effort provided “proof of concept” that SPI gels possess strength and may be formed in a sand pack reducing the permeability to brine and CO{sub 2} flow. This SPI technology is a natural extension of prior R & D and the Phase I effort that together show a high potential for success in a Phase II follow-on project. Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is a major by-product of

A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

Science.gov (United States)

Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

2014-03-01

A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

Systems and method for lagrangian monitoring of flooding conditions

KAUST Repository

Claudel, Christian G.

2015-12-17

A traffic monitoring system and method for mapping traffic speed and density while preserving privacy. The system can include fixed stations that make up a network and mobile probes that are associated with vehicles. The system and method do not gather, store, or transmit any unique or identifying information, and thereby preserves the privacy of members of traffic. The system and method provide real-time traffic density and speed mapping. The system and method can further be integrated with a complementary flood monitoring system and method.

Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

READY: a web-based geographical information system for enhanced flood resilience through raising awareness in citizens

Science.gov (United States)

Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J.

2015-07-01

As evidenced by the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood management strategies in Europe have undergone a shift in focus in recent years. The goal of flood prevention using structural measures has been replaced by an emphasis on the management of flood risks using non-structural measures. One implication of this is that public authorities alone not only take responsibility for flood management. A broader range of stakeholders, who may personally experience the negative effects of flooding, also take on responsibility for protecting themselves. Therefore, it is vital that information concerning flood risks is conveyed to those who may be affected in order to facilitate the self-protection of citizens. Experience shows that problems persist even where efforts have been made to communicate flood risks. There is a need for the development of new tools that are able to rapidly disseminate flood-risk information to the general public. To be useful these tools must be able to present information relevant to the location of the user. Moreover, the content and design of the tool need to be adjusted to laypeople's needs. Dissemination and communication influence both people's access to and understanding of natural risk information. Such a tool could be a useful aid to effective management of flood risks. To address this gap, a web-based geographical information system (WebGIS) has been developed through the collaborative efforts of a group of scientists, hazard and risk analysts and managers, GIS analysts, system developers and communication designers. This tool, called "READY: Risk, Extreme Events, Adaptation, Defend Yourself", aims to enhance the general public knowledge of flood risk, making citizens more capable of responding appropriately during a flood event. The READY WebGIS has allowed for the visualization and easy querying of a complex hazard and risk database thanks to a high degree of interactivity and easily read maps. In this way, READY has enabled fast

Flood Hazards - A National Threat

Science.gov (United States)

,

2006-01-01

In the late summer of 2005, the remarkable flooding brought by Hurricane Katrina, which caused more than $200 billion in losses, constituted the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history. However, even in typical years, flooding causes billions of dollars in damage and threatens lives and property in every State. Natural processes, such as hurricanes, weather systems, and snowmelt, can cause floods. Failure of levees and dams and inadequate drainage in urban areas can also result in flooding. On average, floods kill about 140 people each year and cause $6 billion in property damage. Although loss of life to floods during the past half-century has declined, mostly because of improved warning systems, economic losses have continued to rise due to increased urbanization and coastal development.

Flood Hazard Mapping by Using Geographic Information System and Hydraulic Model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahdettin Demir

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, flood hazard maps were prepared for the Mert River Basin, Samsun, Turkey, by using GIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS. In this river basin, human life losses and a significant amount of property damages were experienced in 2012 flood. The preparation of flood risk maps employed in the study includes the following steps: (1 digitization of topographical data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS, (2 simulation of flood lows of different return periods using a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS, and (3 preparation of flood risk maps by integrating the results of (1 and (2.

Flood management: prediction of microbial contamination in large-scale floods in urban environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jonathon; Lai, Ka Man; Davies, Mike; Clifton, David; Ridley, Ian; Biddulph, Phillip

2011-07-01

With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities

Internal flooding analyses results of Slovak NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sopira, Vladimir

2000-01-01

The assessment of the flood risk was the objective of the internal flooding analysis for NPPs Bohunice V1, V2 and Mochovce. All important flooding sources were identified. The rooms containing safety important components were analyzed from the point of view of: Integrity of flood boundaries; Capability for drainage; Flood signalisation; Flood localization and liquidation; Vulnerability of safety system component. The redundancies of safety systems are located mostly separately and no flood can endanger more than single train. It can be concluded that NPPs with WWER-440 are very safe against the flooding initiating event

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Floods and Flash Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

Flooding, flood risks and coping strategies in urban informal residential areas: The case of Keko Machungwa, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tumpale Sakijege

2012-08-01

Full Text Available This article presents findings from a study carried out in Keko Machungwa informal settlement in Dar es Salaam under the auspices of the Disaster Management Training Centre of Ardhi University, Tanzania. The settlement has experienced frequent flooding in the past five years, and this study explores the causes, risks, extent of flooding and coping strategies of residents as well as municipality and city officials. Key methods employed in capturing empirical evidence included mapping of zones by severity of flooding, interviews with households, sub-ward leaders, and municipal and city officials. Non-participant observation, primarily taking photographs, complemented these methods. Laboratory tests of water samples taken from shallow wells in the settlement were performed to establish the level of pollution. In addition, records of prevalence of water-borne diseases were gathered from a dispensary within the settlement to corroborate flooding events, water pollution and occurrence of such diseases. Findings show that flooding is contributed to by the lack of a coordinated stormwater drainage system; haphazard housing development within the valley; and blocking of the water stream by haphazard dumping of solid waste and construction. Risks associated with flooding include water and air pollution, diseases, waterlogging and blocked accessibility. The most common coping strategies at household level are use of sandbags and tree logs; raised pit latrines and doorsteps; provision of water outlet pipes above plinth level; construction of embankments, protection walls and elevation of house foundations; seasonal displacement; and boiling and chemical treatment of water. Recommendations for future action at household, community and city level are made.

Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

2017-04-01

Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

2009-09-01

This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

Modelling of ammonia volatilisation in fertilised and flooded rice systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khairudin, Nurulhuda

2017-01-01

In flooded rice systems that are broadcast with urea, significant amounts of nitrogen (N) may be lost to the atmosphere in the form of ammonia (NH3). Many models with different complexities with regards to describing the process of NH3 volatilisation and the overall N dynamics in the systems are

Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Dietrich

2009-08-01

Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Kick, Edward L; Fraser, James C; Fulkerson, Gregory M; McKinney, Laura A; De Vries, Daniel H

2011-07-01

Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Modeling and simulation of surfactant-polymer flooding using a new hybrid method

Science.gov (United States)

Daripa, Prabir; Dutta, Sourav

2017-04-01

Chemical enhanced oil recovery by surfactant-polymer (SP) flooding has been studied in two space dimensions. A new global pressure for incompressible, immiscible, multicomponent two-phase porous media flow has been derived in the context of SP flooding. This has been used to formulate a system of flow equations that incorporates the effect of capillary pressure and also the effect of polymer and surfactant on viscosity, interfacial tension and relative permeabilities of the two phases. The coupled system of equations for pressure, water saturation, polymer concentration and surfactant concentration has been solved using a new hybrid method in which the elliptic global pressure equation is solved using a discontinuous finite element method and the transport equations for water saturation and concentrations of the components are solved by a Modified Method Of Characteristics (MMOC) in the multicomponent setting. Numerical simulations have been performed to validate the method, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and to evaluate the relative performance of the various flooding schemes for several different heterogeneous reservoirs.

Integrated Urban Flood Analysis considering Optimal Operation of Flood Control Facilities in Urban Drainage Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, M. S.; Choi, J. H.; Yuk, G. M.

2017-12-01

eavy rainfall has become a recent major cause of urban area flooding due to the climate change and urbanization. To prevent property damage along with casualties, a system which can alert and forecast urban flooding must be developed. Optimal performance of reducing flood damage can be expected of urban drainage facilities when operated in smaller rainfall events over extreme ones. Thus, the purpose of this study is to execute: A) flood forecasting system using runoff analysis based on short term rainfall; and B) flood warning system which operates based on the data from pump stations and rainwater storage in urban basins. In result of the analysis, it is shown that urban drainage facilities using short term rainfall forecasting data by radar will be more effective to reduce urban flood damage than using only the inflow data of the facility. Keywords: Heavy Rainfall, Urban Flood, Short-term Rainfall Forecasting, Optimal operating of urban drainage facilities. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B066744-05) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Quality of drinking water from rural water supply after the may flood 2014 in the area of Kraljevo

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Marinović Dragan D.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The May floods in 2014 affected a large number of rural households in the vicinity of the town of Kraljevo. The flood affected a large number of villages that are located along the river West Morava and villages along the river Godačica. It was necessary to analyze the microbiological and physical chemical quality of drinking water, in order to see the impact of the May floods on the quality of drinking water rural water flooded the city, for the protection of human health, water supply and the ecosystem in general. This paper presents the results of a project which was implemented by the city of Kraljevo and funded humanitarian organization ADRA (Adventist Development and humanitarian organizations. The results of microbiological and physical chemical analysis of drinking water are shown, whose maximum allowable values are given in Regulation on hygienic quality of drinking water Fig. FRY, No.42 / 98 and 44/99 [1]. Upon the approval of funds for drinking water samples, which were tested in the laboratories of the Institute of Public Health of Kraljevo, were sampled in September and October 2014 in eight flooded villages around the town of Kraljevo. The tests were based on the analysis of microbial load of the water system and the physical and chemical parameters and the preservation of water quality.

Operational flood forecasting, warning and response for multi-scale flood risks in developing cities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rogelis Prada, M.C.

2016-01-01

Flood early warning systems are recognized as one of the most effective flood risk management instruments when correctly embedded in comprehensive flood risk management strategies and policies. Many efforts around the world are being put in place to advance the components that determine the

An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Roland

1Department of Geography, Benue State University, Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria. 2National Agency for the Control of AIDS (NACA), Central Area, Abuja, Nigeria. Accepted 20 May, 2013. This study deals with the application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in mapping flood risk zones in Makurdi Town. This study ...

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding: Spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1992--September 30, 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somasundaran, P.

1994-07-01

The aim of this research project is to investigate mechanisms underlying adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effects of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, various inorganic and polymeric species, and solids mineralogy will be determined. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro & nano spectroscopy, microcalorimetry, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability; is used in this study. The results obtained should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the first year of this three year contract, adsorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures was studied at the solid-liquid and gas-liquid interfaces. Surfactants studied include alkyl xylene sulfonates, polyethoxylated alkyl phenols, octaethylene glycol mono n-decyl ether, and tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride. Adsorption of surfactant mixtures of varying composition was also investigated. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer was characterized using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes interfacial properties such as wettability, electrokinetics and stability of reservoir minerals were correlated with the amount of reagent adsorbed. Strong effects of the structure of the surfactant and position of functional groups were revealed.

Pump Hydro Energy Storage systems (PHES) in groundwater flooded quarries

Science.gov (United States)

Poulain, Angélique; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Goderniaux, Pascal

2018-04-01

Pump storage hydroelectricity is an efficient way to temporarily store energy. This technique requires to store temporarily a large volume of water in an upper reservoir, and to release it through turbines to the lower reservoir, to produce electricity. Recently, the idea of using old flooded quarries as a lower reservoir has been evoked. However, these flooded quarries are generally connected to unconfined aquifers. Consequently, pumping or injecting large volumes of water, within short time intervals, will have an impact on the adjacent aquifers. Conversely, water exchanges between the quarry and the aquifer may also influence the water level fluctuations in the lower reservoir. Using numerical modelling, this study investigates the interactions between generic flooded open pit quarries and adjacent unconfined aquifers, during various pump-storage cyclic stresses. The propagation of sinusoidal stresses in the adjacent porous media and the amplitude of water level fluctuations in the quarry are studied. Homogeneous rock media and the presence of fractures in the vicinity of the quarry are considered. Results show that hydrological quarry - rock interactions must be considered with caution, when implementing pump - storage systems. For rock media characterized by high hydraulic conductivity and porosity values, water volumes exchanges during cycles may affect significantly the amplitude of the water level fluctuations in the quarry, and as a consequence, the instantaneous electricity production. Regarding the impact of the pump - storage cyclic stresses on the surrounding environment, the distance of influence is potentially high under specific conditions, and is enhanced with the occurrence of rock heterogeneities, such as fractures. The impact around the quarry used as a lower reservoir thus appears as an important constraining factor regarding the feasibility of pump - storage systems, to be assessed carefully if groundwater level fluctuations around the quarry

System of prediction and warning of floods in the water basin of Struma/ Strymonas River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mimides, Theologos; Rizos, Spyros; Soulis, Kostas; Dimitrov, Dobri

2004-01-01

Struma is collecting waters from four countries: Bulgaria, Serbia, FYROM and Greece. Most of its basin area is located in Bulgaria and Greece, while the upper part of its basin is in Bulgaria. There are important hydro technical structures just below the Bulgarian-Greek border, and the floods generated in the Bulgarian part of the basin could significantly affect the security of those structures and their operational rules. That is why several years ago a project related to flood warning at Struma/ Strymonas river basin was formulated and its first phase was completed in 2000. The main objective of the project was to demonstrate the principal possibility for issuing reliable warnings for hazardous flood events with sufficient lead-time to organize flood mitigation measures. The project implementation team included various scientists from the Agricultural University of Athens-Greece (leader), from the Center of Remote Sensing, Bristol University-UK, and from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Sofia - Bulgaria. The work program of the first project phase included a range of activities implemented by the Bulgarian and Greek team members, coordinated by the Agricultural University of Athens. Among the activities of the Project are included: a) a preliminary model for peak flood hydrographs and specifications of an early warning system, b) a real time flood forecasting by routing flood hydrographs through the system of the river and Kerkini lake, c) thematic maps of vegetation and land cover derived by satellite remote sensing, d) satellite snow monitoring in the basin, e) an adaptation of the Alladin Weather Forecast Model at the hydrological basin and scaling of the Crocus Snow Model at a preliminary stage, and f) development of a geo environmental recording system.(Author)

Flood control design requirements and flood evaluation methods of inland nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ailing; Wang Ping; Zhu Jingxing

2011-01-01

Effect of flooding is one of the key safety factors and environmental factors in inland nuclear power plant sitting. Up to now, the rule of law and standard systems are established for the selection of nuclear power plant location and flood control requirements in China. In this paper flood control standards of China and other countries are introduced. Several inland nuclear power plants are taken as examples to thoroughly discuss the related flood evaluation methods. The suggestions are also put forward in the paper. (authors)

Lessons learned from international flood PSAS in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Myungro; Lee, Beomsu; Kang, Sunkoo

1998-01-01

Risk due to internal flooding has been one of the major concerns for the design and operation of nuclear power plants. To reduce the risk from internal flooding, two design approaches for flood protection systems, active and passive, can be considered. The approaches to flood protection design are different for each plant design, and they are highly dependent on the plant type. The flood PSA revealed that the potential plant risk due to a flooding event is highly dependent on the flood design. The major design characteristics are 1) the location of systems that utilize sea water and their impact to other safety related systems, and 2) the existence of emergency overflow paths and an emergency sump which can transfer and accommodate flood water to prevent a significant flooding event. To identify and compare the effectiveness and potential vulnerability of various Korean nuclear power plants' flood designs, the flood PSAs have been performed for three plant designs, such as existing Korean PWR plants, CANDU type PHWR plants, and Korean Standard Nuclear Plants. Based on the evaluation, several design changes were recommended. (author)

Evaluation of Flooding Risk and Engineering Protection Against Floods for Ulan-Ude

Science.gov (United States)

Borisova, T. A.

2017-11-01

The report presents the results of the study on analysis and risk assessment in relation to floods for Ulan-Ude and provides the developed recommendations of the activities for engineering protection of the population and economic installations. The current situation is reviewed and the results of the site survey are shown to identify the challenges and areas of negative water influence along with the existing security system. The report presents a summary of floods and index risk assessment. The articles describes the scope of eventual flooding, underflooding and enumerates the economic installations inside the urban areas’ research-based zones of flooding at the rated levels of water to identify the likeliness of exceedance. The assessment of damage from flood equal to 1% is shown.

Can we predict the next urban flood?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2015-01-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numericallyboth...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 hours leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model with the purpose to investigate the potential for predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been recently flooded. Results show that it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution...

A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

Science.gov (United States)

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

2015-04-01

Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

Flood Early Warning in Bridge Management System: from idea to implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Kerin, Igor; Bekić, Damir; Michalis, Panagiotis; Šolman, Hrvoje; Cahill, Paul; Gilja, Gordon; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; McKeogh, Eamon

2017-04-01

Recent advances in computational speed, cloud systems and GPRS data are some of the factors that have resulted in an increased number of operational and fully automatized Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Flood forecasting is becoming a well-recognised solution for flood management as an indirect measure for minimising the risk should preventive or defence measures prove ineffective or are not feasible for implementation. Public acceptance of FEWS as a standalone solution is still considered to be at low level. Further public engagement regarding engineering risks and providing timely notifications and warnings can, however, establish the true value of such a system to the society in general. Flood risks can be direct, resulting in damage to buildings, infrastructure and natural resources, or indirect, which can be related to disaster losses leading to declines in commercial output or revenue and impact on wellbeing of people, typically from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. Flood risk and structural risks are closely related, thereby impacting the maintenance and management of bridges assets over watercourses. Many studies indicate that most bridge collapses are related to hydraulic effects and consequently scour issues (i.e. the removal of riverbed around bridge foundations due to flowing water). Consequently, hydraulic, hydrologic and geotechnical expertise and knowledge can lead to introducing FEWS as a key tool for Bridge Scour Management System (BSMS), forming a part of a BMS. The implementation of this concept was initiated with the EU/FP7 funded project BRIDGE SMS. The project introduces BSMS into the overall BMS to develop a reliable decision support tool which would efficiently manage bridge failure risks in a cost-effective way. This is accomplished through the development of FEWS, alongside monitoring systems that can provide important information about environmental and structural conditions at the catchment area and bridge site

Best Practice for Rainfall Measurement, Torrential Flood Monitoring and Real Time Alerting System in Serbia

Science.gov (United States)

Stefanovic, Milutin; Milojevic, Mileta; Zlatanovic, Nikola

2014-05-01

Serbia occupies 88.000 km2 and its confined zone menaced with torrent flood occupies 50.000km2. Floods on large rivers and torrents are the most frequent natural disasters in Serbia. This is the result of a geographic position and relief of Serbia. Therefore, defense from these natural disasters has been institutionalized since the 19th century. Through its specialized bodies and public companies, the State organized defense from floods on large rivers and protection of international and other main roads. The Topčiderska River is one of a number of rivers in Serbia that is a threat to both urban and rural environments. In this text, general characteristics of this river will be illustrated, as well as the historical natural hazards that have occurred in the part of Belgrade near Topčiderska River. Belgrade is the capital of Serbia, its political, administrative and financial center, which means that there are significant financial capacities and human resources for investments in all sectors, and specially in the water resources sector. Along the Topčiderska catchment there are many industrial, traffic and residential structures that are in danger of floods and flood protection is more difficult with rapid high flows. The goal is to use monitoring on the Topčiderska River basin to set up a modern system for monitoring in real time and forecast of torrential floods. This paper represents a system of remote detection and monitoring of torrential floods and rain measurements in real time on Topciderka river and ready for a quick response.

Decision Support for Flood Event Prediction and Monitoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Liang, Gengsheng

2007-01-01

In this paper the development of Web GIS based decision support system for flood events is presented. To improve flood prediction we developed the decision support system for flood prediction and monitoring that integrates hydrological modelling and CARIS GIS. We present the methodology for data...... integration, floodplain delineation, and online map interfaces. Our Web-based GIS model can dynamically display observed and predicted flood extents for decision makers and the general public. The users can access Web-based GIS that models current flood events and displays satellite imagery and digital...... elevation model integrated with flood plain area. The system can show how the flooding prediction based on the output from hydrological modeling for the next 48 hours along the lower Saint John River Valley....

Improving Flood Risk Management for California's Central Valley: How the State Developed a Toolbox for Large, System-wide Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Pingel, N.; Liang, Y.; Bindra, A.

2016-12-01

More than 1 million Californians live and work in the floodplains of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley where flood risks are among the highest in the nation. In response to this threat to people, property and the environment, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been called to action to improve flood risk management. This has transpired through significant advances in development of flood information and tools, analysis, and planning. Senate Bill 5 directed DWR to prepare the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) and update it every 5 years. A key component of this aggressive planning approach is answering the question: What is the current flood risk, and how would proposed improvements change flood risk throughout the system? Answering this question is a substantial challenge due to the size and complexity of the watershed and flood control system. The watershed is roughly 42,000 sq mi, and flows are controlled by numerous reservoirs, bypasses, and levees. To overcome this challenge, the State invested in development of a comprehensive analysis "tool box" through various DWR programs. Development of the tool box included: collection of hydro-meteorological, topographic, geotechnical, and economic data; development of rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydraulic routing, and flood risk analysis models; and development of specialized applications and computing schemes to accelerate the analysis. With this toolbox, DWR is analyzing flood hazard, flood control system performance, exposure and vulnerability of people and property to flooding, consequence of flooding for specific events, and finally flood risk for a range of CVFPP alternatives. Based on the results, DWR will put forward a State Recommended Plan in the 2017 CVFPP. Further, the value of the analysis tool box extends beyond the CVFPP. It will serve as a foundation for other flood studies for years to come and has already been successfully applied for inundation mapping to support emergency

Nuclear reactor equipped with a flooding tank and a residual heat removal and emergency cooling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schabert, H.P.; Winkler, F.

1975-01-01

A description is given of a nuclear reactor such as a pressurized-water reactor or the like which is equipped with a flooding tank and a residual heat removal and emergency cooling system. The flooding tank is arranged within the containment shell at an elevation above the upper edge of the reactor core and contains a liquid for flooding the reactor core in the event of a loss of coolant

Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2015-04-01

Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Mass and energy analysis of the ions in a plasma flood system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wooding, A.C.; Armour, D.G.; Berg, J.A. van den; Holmes, A.J.T.; Burgess, C.; Goldberg, R.D.

2005-01-01

Plasma flood systems, capable of providing a copious supply of electrons are used in ion implanters to control wafer charging and provide effective space charge neutralisation of the ion beam in the post-analysis/post-deceleration section of the beamline. Under appropriate conditions the plasma from the flood system interacts with the ion beam and this bridging leads to an enhanced beam transport efficiency in the final critical stage of the beamline. The effectiveness of this process depends on the properties of the plasma emanating from the system. In this study, a plasma analyser comprising a double hemi-spherical electrostatic energy analyser and a quadrupole mass spectrometer, was used to measure the energy distributions of all the ion species leaving a magnetically confined argon plasma, generated in the discharge chamber of a conventional flood neutraliser. The energy distributions extended to surprisingly high energies and the peak structures depended strongly on discharge voltage, discharge current and gas pressure. The nature of these dependencies was complex with both the pressure and arc current affecting the way in which the ion energy distributions depended on arc voltage. In all cases, multiply charged ions played a significant role in determining the nature of the ion energy distributions

Mass and energy analysis of the ions in a plasma flood system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wooding, A.C. [Institute of Materials Research, University of Salford, Salford M54WT (United Kingdom); Armour, D.G. [Institute of Materials Research, University of Salford, Salford M54WT (United Kingdom); Berg, J.A. van den [Institute of Materials Research, University of Salford, Salford M54WT (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: j.a.vandenberg@salford.ac.uk; Holmes, A.J.T. [Marcham Scientific, Hungerford, Berks RG17 0LH (United Kingdom); Burgess, C. [Applied Materials UK Ltd., Foundry Lane, Horsham, West Sussex RH13 5PX (United Kingdom); Goldberg, R.D. [Applied Materials UK Ltd., Foundry Lane, Horsham, West Sussex RH13 5PX (United Kingdom)

2005-08-01

Plasma flood systems, capable of providing a copious supply of electrons are used in ion implanters to control wafer charging and provide effective space charge neutralisation of the ion beam in the post-analysis/post-deceleration section of the beamline. Under appropriate conditions the plasma from the flood system interacts with the ion beam and this bridging leads to an enhanced beam transport efficiency in the final critical stage of the beamline. The effectiveness of this process depends on the properties of the plasma emanating from the system. In this study, a plasma analyser comprising a double hemi-spherical electrostatic energy analyser and a quadrupole mass spectrometer, was used to measure the energy distributions of all the ion species leaving a magnetically confined argon plasma, generated in the discharge chamber of a conventional flood neutraliser. The energy distributions extended to surprisingly high energies and the peak structures depended strongly on discharge voltage, discharge current and gas pressure. The nature of these dependencies was complex with both the pressure and arc current affecting the way in which the ion energy distributions depended on arc voltage. In all cases, multiply charged ions played a significant role in determining the nature of the ion energy distributions.

Flood Risk Mapping Using Flow Energy Equation and Geographic Information System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

pourya Javan

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Flooding and its damages are not only found uplift water level in a region. In other words, the depth and speed parameters together have determining the level of flood risk at each point. This subject is visible in flooded plain with low height and high speed of 2 meters per second, which damages are extensive. According to the criteria of having both velocity and flow depth in the governing equation to the flows energy, this equation seems appropriate to analysis in this study. Various methods have been proposed for increase accuracy in flood zoning with different return periods and risks associated with it in land border of river. For example, some of these methods are considered factors such as analysis of past flooding in the area affected by floods, hydrological factors and consideration of hydraulic elements affecting in flood zoning (such as flow velocity. This paper investigates the effect of flood zoning by the energy flow in the areas affected by floods. Also risk due to flood based on energy flow in each section of the river is compared by the proposed graphs of hazard interval and other done flood zoning in this field. In this study, the FORDO river has been selected as the case study. This river is part of the rivers located in the city of QOM KAHAK. The characteristics of river in upstream and downstream are mountain, young and stable and adult, respectively. Also this river in different seasons is exposed the flood damage. The proposed method in this study can be improving recognition accuracy of flood risk in areas affected by flood. Also, this method facilitate the identify parts of the river bed, that is affected by severe flooding, for decision making to improve rivers organizing.

Impacts of adaptive flood management strategies on the Socio-Hydrological system in Ganges - Brahmaputra river basin, Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, K.; Jeong, H.; Sangwan, N.; Yu, D. J.

2017-12-01

Human societies have tried to prevent floods by building robust infrastructure such as levees or dams. However, some scholars raise a doubt to this approach because of a lack of adaptiveness to environmental and societal changes in a long-term. Thus, a growing number of studies now suggest adopting new strategies in flood management to reinforce an adapt capacity to the long-term flood risk. This study addresses this issue by developing a conceptual mathematical model exploring how flood management strategies effect to the dynamics human-flood interaction, ultimately the flood resilience in a long-term. Especially, our model is motivated by the community-based flood protection system in southwest coastal area in Bangladesh. We developed several conceptual flood management strategies and investigated the interplay between those strategies and community's capacity to cope with floods. We additionally analyzed how external disturbances (sea level rise, water tide level change, and outside economic development) alter the adaptive capacity to flood risks. The results of this study reveal that the conventional flood management has potential vulnerabilities as external disturbances increase. Our results also highlight the needs of the adaptive strategy as a new paradigm in flood management which is able to feedback to the social and hydrological conditions. These findings provide insights on the resilience-based, adaptive strategies which can build flood resilience under global change.

Origin, enzymatic response and fate of dissolved organic matter during flood and non-flood conditions in a river-floodplain system of the Danube (Austria).

Science.gov (United States)

Sieczko, Anna; Peduzzi, Peter

2014-01-01

Spectroscopic techniques and extracellular enzyme activity measurements were combined with assessments of bacterial secondary production (BSP) to elucidate flood-pulse-linked differences in carbon (C) sources and related microbial processes in a river-floodplain system near Vienna (Austria). Surface connection with the main channel significantly influenced the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in floodplain backwaters. The highest values of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) were observed during the peak of the flood, when DOC increased from 1.36 to 4.37 mg l -1 and CDOM from 2.94 to 14.32 m -1 . The flood introduced DOC which consisted of more allochthonously-derived, aromatic compounds. Bacterial enzymatic activity, as a proxy to track the response to changes in DOM, indicated elevated utilization of imported allochthonous material. Based on the enzyme measurements, new parameters were calculated: metabolic effort and enzymatic indices (EEA 1 and EEA 2). During connection, bacterial glucosidase and protease activity were dominant, whereas during disconnected phases a switch to lignin degradation (phenol oxidase) occurred. The enzymatic activity analysis revealed that flooding mobilized reactive DOM, which then supported bacterial metabolism. No significant differences in overall BSP between the two phases were detected, indicating that heterogeneous sources of C sufficiently support BSP. The study demonstrates that floods are important for delivering DOM, which, despite its allochthonous origin, is reactive and can be effectively utilized by aquatic bacteria in this river-floodplain systems. The presence of active floodplains, characterized by hydrological connectivity with the main channel, creates the opportunity to process allochthonous DOC. This has potential consequences for carbon flux, enhancing C sequestration and mineralization processes in this river-floodplain system.

Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Di Baldassarre

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Over history, humankind has tended to settle near streams because of the role of rivers as transportation corridors and the fertility of riparian areas. However, human settlements in floodplains have been threatened by the risk of flooding. Possible responses have been to resettle away and/or modify the river system by building flood control structures. This has led to a complex web of interactions and feedback mechanisms between hydrological and social processes in settled floodplains. This paper is an attempt to conceptualise these interplays for hypothetical human-flood systems. We develop a simple, dynamic model to represent the interactions and feedback loops between hydrological and social processes. The model is then used to explore the dynamics of the human-flood system and the effect of changing individual characteristics, including external forcing such as technological development. The results show that the conceptual model is able to reproduce reciprocal effects between floods and people as well as the emergence of typical patterns. For instance, when levees are built or raised to protect floodplain areas, their presence not only reduces the frequency of flooding, but also exacerbates high water levels. Then, because of this exacerbation, higher flood protection levels are required by society. As a result, more and more flooding events are avoided, but rare and catastrophic events take place.

Sex-specific responses to winter flooding, spring waterlogging and post-flooding recovery in Populus deltoides.

Science.gov (United States)

Miao, Ling-Feng; Yang, Fan; Han, Chun-Yu; Pu, Yu-Jin; Ding, Yang; Zhang, Li-Jia

2017-05-31

Winter flooding events are common in some rivers and streams due to dam constructions, and flooding and waterlogging inhibit the growth of trees in riparian zones. This study investigated sex-specific morphological, physiological and ultrastructural responses to various durations of winter flooding and spring waterlogging stresses, and post-flooding recovery characteristics in Populus deltoides. There were no significant differences in the morphological, ultrastructural and the majority of physiological traits in trees subjected to medium and severe winter flooding stresses, suggesting that males and females of P. deltoides were winter flooding tolerant, and insensitive to winter flooding duration. Males were more tolerant to winter flooding stress in terms of photosynthesis and chlorophyll fluorescence than females. Females displayed greater oxidative damage due to flooding stress than males. Males developed more efficient antioxidant enzymatic systems to control reactive oxygen species. Both sexes had similarly strong post-flooding recovery capabilities in terms of plant growth, and physiological and ultrastructural parameters. However, Males had better recovery capabilities in terms of pigment content. These results increase the understanding of poplars's adaptation to winter flooding stress. They also elucidate sex-specific differences in response to flooding stress during the dormant season, and during post-flooding recovery periods.

Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

2008-01-01

Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

May flood-poor periods be more dangerous than flood-rich periods?

Science.gov (United States)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Kuil, Linda; Bloeschl, Guenter

2014-05-01

perception of risk and, consequently, people preparedness remains high. Conversely, long periods without floods will serve to diminish awareness, since the memory of floods tends to be short (i.e., people tend to forget quickly), finally leading communities to take too high risks. Di Baldassarre, G., A. Viglione, G. Carr, L. Kuil, J.L. Salinas and G. Blöschl (2013) Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 3295-3303, doi:10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013. Viglione, A., G. Di Baldassarre, L. Brandimarte, L. Kuil, G. Carr, J.L. Salinas, A. Scolobig and G. Blöschl (2013) Insights from socio-hydrology modelling on dealing with flood risk: roles of collective memory, risk-taking attitude and trust, Journal of Hydrology, accepted.

Dynamics of water and nutrients for potted plants induced by flooded bench fertigation : experiments and simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Otten, W.

1994-01-01

Dynamics of water and nutrients as affected by physical and chemical characteristics of a substrate, fertigation method and schedule, and plant uptake were studied for a flooded bench fertigation system for potted plants, through a detailed experimental study of the root environment and a

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Ootegem, Luc; Verhofstadt, Elsy; Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom

2015-01-01

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks

Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

2015-09-15

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rue, Garrett P. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Rock, Nathan D. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Gabor, Rachel S. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Pitlick, John [Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Tfaily, Malak [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; McKnight, Diane M. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA

2017-07-01

During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

Developing an Approach to Prioritize River Restoration using Data Extracted from Flood Risk Information System Databases.

Science.gov (United States)

Vimal, S.; Tarboton, D. G.; Band, L. E.; Duncan, J. M.; Lovette, J. P.; Corzo, G.; Miles, B.

2015-12-01

Prioritizing river restoration requires information on river geometry. In many states in the US detailed river geometry has been collected for floodplain mapping and is available in Flood Risk Information Systems (FRIS). In particular, North Carolina has, for its 100 Counties, developed a database of numerous HEC-RAS models which are available through its Flood Risk Information System (FRIS). These models that include over 260 variables were developed and updated by numerous contractors. They contain detailed surveyed or LiDAR derived cross-sections and modeled flood extents for different extreme event return periods. In this work, over 4700 HEC-RAS models' data was integrated and upscaled to utilize detailed cross-section information and 100-year modelled flood extent information to enable river restoration prioritization for the entire state of North Carolina. We developed procedures to extract geomorphic properties such as entrenchment ratio, incision ratio, etc. from these models. Entrenchment ratio quantifies the vertical containment of rivers and thereby their vulnerability to flooding and incision ratio quantifies the depth per unit width. A map of entrenchment ratio for the whole state was derived by linking these model results to a geodatabase. A ranking of highly entrenched counties enabling prioritization for flood allowance and mitigation was obtained. The results were shared through HydroShare and web maps developed for their visualization using Google Maps Engine API.

EMERGO : The Dutch flood risk system since 1986

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijcken, T.

2017-01-01

PART I | A RESEARCH AND DESIGN PROJECT ABOUT FLOOD RISK POLICY SINCE 1986 The period between the Dutch flood disaster of 1953 and the year 2016 can be divided into two eras, separated by the year 1986, when the famous Eastern Scheldt barrier was completed. The perspective of water professionals on

Columbia River System Operation Review final environmental impact statement. Appendix E: Flood control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

The System Operation Review (SOR) is a study and environmental compliance process being used by the three Federal agencies to analyze future operations of the system and river use issues. The goal of the SOR is to achieve a coordinated system operation strategy for the river that better meets the needs of all river users. This technical appendix addresses only the effects of alternative system operating strategies for managing the Columbia River system. The Corps of Engineers, Bonneville Power Administration, and Bureau of Reclamation conducted a scoping process consisting of a series of regionwide public meetings and solicitation of written comments in the summer of 1990. Comments on flood control issues were received from all parts of the Columbia river basin. This appendix includes issues raised in the public scoping process, as well as those brought for consideration by members of the Flood Control Work Group

Flood Response System—A Case Study

OpenAIRE

Yogesh Kumar Singh; Upasana Dutta; T. S. Murugesh Prabhu; I. Prabu; Jitendra Mhatre; Manoj Khare; Sandeep Srivastava; Subasisha Dutta

2017-01-01

Flood Response System (FRS) is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the critica...

Study of CT Scan Flooding System at High Temperature and Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X. Y.

2017-12-01

CT scan flooding experiment can scan micro-pore in different flooding stages by the use of CT scan technology, without changing the external morphology and internal structure of the core, and observe the distribution characterization in pore medium of different flooding fluid under different pressure.thus,it can rebuilt the distribution images of oil-water distribution in different flooding stages. However,under extreme high pressure and temperature conditions,the CT scan system can not meet the requirements. Container of low density materials or thin shell can not resist high pressure,while high density materials or thick shell will cause attenuation and scattering of X-ray. The experiment uses a simple Ct scanning systems.X ray from a point light source passing trough a micro beryllium shell on High pressure stainless steal container,continuously irradiates the core holder that can continuously 360° rotate along the core axis. A rare earth intensifying screen behind the core holder emitting light when irradiated with X ray can show the core X ray section image. An optical camera record the core X ray images through a transparency high pressure glazing that placed on the High pressure stainless steal container.Thus,multiple core X ray section images can reconstruct the 3D core reconstruction after a series of data processing.The experiment shows that both the micro beryllium shell and rare earth intensifying screen can work in high temperature and high pressure environment in the stainless steal container. This way that X-ray passes through a thin layer of micro beryllium shell , not high pressure stainless steal shell,avoid the attenuation and scattering of X-ray from the container shell,while improving the high-pressure experiment requirements.

Natural disaster management in India with focus on floods and cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Thattai, Deeptha V.; Sathyanathan, R.; Dinesh, R.; Harshit Kumar, L.

2017-07-01

Disasters are of two major kinds, natural and manmade, and affect the community. Natural disasters are caused by natural earth processes like floods, droughts, cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and epidemics. Manmade disasters occur due to chemical spills, accidents, terrorism activities etc. India is prone to almost all the major natural disasters. The high population density combined with poor preparedness, planning and management, and rescue and relief measures inevitably lead to huge losses of lives and property every year in the country. This paper analyses the disaster management policy of India and its implementation using two recent case studies - one where a relative degree of success has been achieved (cyclones) and the other where we are still struggling to have even a basic preparedness system in place (floods).

Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

George E. Dzyacky

2010-11-23

/vapor traffic that produce increased contact area and lead to substantial increases in separation efficiency – which translates to a 10% increase in energy efficiency on a BTU/bbl basis. The Flooding Predictor™ operates on the principle that between five to sixty minutes in advance of a flooding event, certain column variables experience an oscillation, a pre-flood pattern. The pattern recognition system of the Flooding Predictor™ utilizes the mathematical first derivative of certain column variables to identify the column’s pre-flood pattern(s). This pattern is a very brief, highly repeatable, simultaneous movement among the derivative values of certain column variables. While all column variables experience negligible random noise generated from the natural frequency of the process, subtle pre-flood patterns are revealed among sub-sets of the derivative values of column variables as the column approaches its hydraulic limit. The sub-set of column variables that comprise the pre-flood pattern is identified empirically through in a two-step process. First, 2ndpoint’s proprietary off-line analysis tool is used to mine historical data for pre-flood patterns. Second, the column is flood-tested to fine-tune the pattern recognition for commissioning. Then the Flooding Predictor™ is implemented as closed-loop advanced control strategy on the plant’s distributed control system (DCS), thus automating control of the column at its hydraulic limit.

46 CFR 62.35-10 - Flooding safety.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flooding safety. 62.35-10 Section 62.35-10 Shipping... Requirements for Specific Types of Automated Vital Systems § 62.35-10 Flooding safety. (a) Automatic bilge.... (b) Remote controls for flooding safety equipment must remain functional under flooding conditions to...

Lessons Learned from Missing Flooding Barriers Operating Experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simic, Z.; Veira, M. P.

2016-01-01

Flooding hazard is highly significant for nuclear power plant safety because of its potential for common cause impact on safety related systems, and because operating experience reviews regularly identify flooding as a cause of concern. Source of the flooding could be external (location) or internal (plant design). The amount of flooding water could vary but even small amount might suffice to affect redundant trains of safety related systems for power supply and cooling. The protection from the flooding is related to the design-basis flood level (DBFL) and it consists of three elements: structural, organizational and accessibility. Determination of the DBFL is critical, as Fukushima Daiichi accident terribly proved. However, as the topic of flooding is very broad, the scope of this paper is focused only on the issues related to the missing flood barriers. Structural measures are physically preventing flooding water to reach or damage safety related system, and they could be permanent or temporary. For temporary measures it is important to have necessary material, equipment and organizational capacity for the timely implementation. Maintenance is important for permanent protection and periodical review is important for assuring readiness and feasibility of temporary flooding protection. Final flooding protection element is assured accessibility to safety related systems during the flooding. Appropriate flooding protection is based on the right implementation of design requirements, proper maintenance and periodic reviews. Operating experience is constantly proving how numerous water sources and systems interactions make flooding protection challenging. This paper is presenting recent related operating experience feedback involving equipment, procedures and analysis. Most frequent deficiencies are: inadequate, degraded or missing seals that would allow floodwaters into safety related spaces. Procedures are inadequate typically because they underestimate necessary

A UAV based system for real time flash flood monitoring in desert environments using Lagrangian microsensors

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed

2013-05-01

Floods are the most common natural disasters, causing thousands of casualties every year in the world. In particular, flash flood events are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur. Most casualties could be avoided with advance warning, for which real time monitoring is critical. While satellite-based high resolution weather forecasts can help predict floods to a certain extent, they are not reliable enough, as flood models depend on a large number of parameters that cannot be estimated beforehand. In this article, we present a novel flood sensing architecture to monitor large scale desert hydrological basins surrounding metropolitan areas, based on unmanned air vehicles. The system relies on Lagrangian (mobile) microsensors, that are released by a swarm of UAVs. A preliminary testbed implementing this technology is briefly described, and future research directions and problems are discussed. © 2013 IEEE.

Impact of a flood disaster on sediment toxicity in a major river system - the Elbe flood 2002 as a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oetken, Matthias; Stachel, Burkhard; Pfenninger, Markus; Oehlmann, Joerg

2005-01-01

The ecotoxicological implications of a flooding disaster were investigated with the exceptional Elbe flood in August 2002 as an example. Sediment samples were taken shortly after the flood at 37 sites. For toxicity assessment the midge Chironomus riparius (Insecta) and the mudsnail Potamopyrgus antipodarum (Gastropoda) were exposed to the sediment samples for 28 days. For a subset of 19 sampling sites, the contamination level and the biological response of both species were also recorded before the flood in 2000. The direct comparison of biological responses at identical sites revealed significant differences for samples taken before and immediately after the flood. After flood sediments of the river Elbe caused both higher emergence rates in the midge and higher numbers of embryos in the mudsnail. Contrary to expectations the toxicity of the sediments decreased after the flood, probably because of a dilution of toxic substances along the river Elbe and a reduction in bioavailability of pollutants as a result of increasing TOC values after the flood. - The extraordinary Elbe flood in August 2002 did not result in an overall increase of environmental contamination

How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

Science.gov (United States)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2015-04-01

The databases of Swiss flood insurance companies build a valuable but to date rarely used source of information on physical flood vulnerability. Detailed insights into the Swiss flood insurance system are crucial for using the full potential of the different databases for research on flood vulnerability. Insurance against floods in Switzerland is a federal system, the modalities are manly regulated on cantonal level. However there are some common principles that apply throughout Switzerland. First of all coverage against floods (and other particular natural hazards) is an integral part of every fire insurance policy for buildings or contents. This coupling of insurance as well as the statutory obligation to insure buildings in most of the cantons and movables in some of the cantons lead to a very high penetration. Second, in case of damage, the reinstatement costs (value as new) are compensated and third there are no (or little) deductible and co-pay. High penetration and the fact that the compensations represent a large share of the direct, tangible losses of the individual policy holders make the databases of the flood insurance companies a comprehensive and therefore valuable data source for flood vulnerability research. Insurance companies not only store electronically data about losses (typically date, amount of claims payment, cause of damage, identity of the insured object or policyholder) but also about insured objects. For insured objects the (insured) value and the details on the policy and its holder are the main feature to record. On buildings the insurance companies usually computerize additional information such as location, volume, year of construction or purpose of use. For the 19 (of total 26) cantons with a cantonal monopoly insurer the data of these insurance establishments have the additional value to represent (almost) the entire building stock of the respective canton. Spatial referenced insurance data can be used for many aspects of

IoT-based flood embankments monitoring system

Science.gov (United States)

Michta, E.; Szulim, R.; Sojka-Piotrowska, A.; Piotrowski, K.

2017-08-01

In the paper a concept of flood embankments monitoring system based on using Internet of Things approach and Cloud Computing technologies will be presented. The proposed system consists of sensors, IoT nodes, Gateways and Cloud based services. Nodes communicates with the sensors measuring certain physical parameters describing the state of the embankments and communicates with the Gateways. Gateways are specialized active devices responsible for direct communication with the nodes, collecting sensor data, preprocess the data, applying local rules and communicate with the Cloud Services using communication API delivered by cloud services providers. Architecture of all of the system components will be proposed consisting IoT devices functionalities description, their communication model, software modules and services bases on using a public cloud computing platform like Microsoft Azure will be proposed. The most important aspects of maintaining the communication in a secure way will be shown.

State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a radioactive waste repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-01-01

This report is a review of the state-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a deep radioactive-waste repository, namely, for predicting the future occurrence of catastrophic flooding and for estimating the effect of such flooding on waste containment characteristics. Several detrimental effects are identified: flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities through a repository within the framework of the existing hydrologic system and thus increase the rate of radioactive-waste leakage to the biosphere; flooding may alter repository hydrology by reversing flow gradients, relocating sources of groundwater recharge and discharge, or shortening seepage paths, thereby producing unpredictable leakage; saturation of a vadose-zone repository during flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities by several orders of magnitude; and flooding can damage repository-media containment properties by inducing seismic or chemical instability or increasing fracture permeability in relatively shallow repository rock as a result of redistributing in-situ stresses. Short-term flooding frequency and magnitude can be predicted statistically by analyzing historical records of flooding. However, long-term flooding events that could damage a permanent repository cannot be predicted with confidence because the geologic record is neither unique nor sufficienly complete for statistical analysis. It is more important to identify parameters characterizing containment properties (such as permeability, groundwater gradient, and shortest seepage path length to the biosphere) that could be affected by future flooding, estimate the maximum magnitude of flooding that could occur within the life of the repository by examining the geologic record, and determine the impact such flooding could have on the parameter values

Flood Response System—A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yogesh Kumar Singh

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Flood Response System (FRS is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of damage. The inputs to FRS are provided using two components: (1 a semi-automated application developed indigenously, to delineate inundated areas for Near-Real Time Flood Monitoring using Active Microwave Remote Sensing data and (2 a two-dimensional (2D hydrodynamic river model generated outputs for water depth and velocity in flooded areas for an embankment breach scenario. The 2D Hydrodynamic model, CCHE2D (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering Two-Dimensional model, was used to simulate an area of 600 km2 in the flood-prone zone of the Brahmaputra basin. The resultant inundated area from the model was found to be 85% accurate when validated with post-flood optical satellite data.

FloodProBE: technologies for improved safety of the built environment in relation to flood events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ree, C.C.D.F. van; Van, M.A.; Heilemann, K.; Morris, M.W.; Royet, P.; Zevenbergen, C.

2011-01-01

The FloodProBE project started as a FP7 research project in November 2009. Floods, together with wind related storms, are considered the major natural hazard in the EU in terms of risk to people and assets. In order to adapt urban areas (in river and coastal zones) to prevent flooding or to be better prepared for floods, decision makers need to determine how to upgrade flood defences and increasing flood resilience of protected buildings and critical infrastructure (power supplies, communications, water, transport, etc.) and assess the expected risk reduction from these measures. The aim of the FloodProBE-project is to improve knowledge on flood resilience and flood protection performance for balancing investments in flood risk management in urban areas. To this end, technologies, methods and tools for assessment purposes and for the adaptation of new and existing buildings and critical infrastructure are developed, tested and disseminated. Three priority areas are addressed by FloodProBE. These are: (i) vulnerability of critical infrastructure and high-density value assets including direct and indirect damage, (ii) the assessment and reliability of urban flood defences including the use of geophysical methods and remote sensing techniques and (iii) concepts and technologies for upgrading weak links in flood defences as well as construction technologies for flood proofing buildings and infrastructure networks to increase the flood resilience of the urban system. The primary impact of FloodProBE in advancing knowledge in these areas is an increase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. performance) of new and existing flood protection structures and flood resilience measures.

Life and Death of a Flood Basalt: Evolution of a Magma Plumbing System in the Ethiopian Low-Ti Flood Basalt Province

Science.gov (United States)

Krans, S. R.; Rooney, T. O.; Kappelman, J. W.; Yirgu, G.; Ayalew, D.

2017-12-01

Continental flood basalt provinces (CFBPs), which are thought to preserve the magmatic record of an impinging mantle plume head, offer spatial and temporal insight into melt generation processes in Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs). Despite the utility of CFBPs in probing the composition of mantle plumes, these basalts typically erupt fractionated compositions, suggestive of significant residence time in the continental lithosphere. The location and duration of this residence within the continental lithosphere provides additional insights into the flux of plume-related magmas. The NW Ethiopian plateau offers a well preserved stratigraphic section from flood basalt initiation to termination, and is thus an important target for study of CFBPs. We examine petrographic and whole rock geochemical variation within a stratigraphic framework and place these observations within the context of the magmatic evolution of the Ethiopian CFBP. We observe multiple pulses of magma recharge punctuated by brief shut-down events and an overall shallowing of the magmatic plumbing system over time. Initial flows are fed by magmas that have experienced deeper fractionation (clinopyroxene dominated and lower CaO/Al2O3 for a given MgO value), likely near the crust-mantle boundary. Subsequent flows are fed by magmas that have experienced shallower fractionation (plagioclase dominated and higher CaO/Al2O3 for a given MgO value) in addition to deeper fractionated magmas. Broad changes in flow thickness and modal mineralogy are consistent with fluctuating changes in magmatic flux through a complex plumbing system and indicate pulsed magma flux and an overall shallowing of the magmatic plumbing system over time. Pulses of less differentiated magmas (MgO > 8 wt%) and high-An composition of plagioclase megacrysts (labradorite to bytownite) suggest a constant replenishing of new primitive magma recharging the shallow plumbing system during the main phase of flood volcanism, though the magnitude of

Water mobility key to improved floods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pamenter, C B

1967-03-01

The use of polymer floods in the U.S. and Canada is discussed. A 2-yr laboratory study conducted by Dow Chemical Co. early in the life of polymer flooding showed that polymers improved the mobility ratio without damage to porosity or permeability of reservoir rock. A pilot test was made in the Niagara Field, Ky., and the results of this pilot compared to the performance of a waterflood that had been operating in this field for about 4 yr. The results showed that polymer flooding was superior to conventional waterflooding and had a distinct behavior. Another pilot flood conducted by Dow in the Albrecht Field, Starr County, Tex., showed similar results. Union Oil Co. of California also conducted pilot tests in 4 of their California reservoirs. Additional recoverable reserves resulting from polymer flooding for 2 of these reservoirs were estimated at 95,000 and 70,000 bbl. The other 2 tests were not as satisfactory, but this behavior is thought to be the result of not using enough polymer. Two other projects discussed are the NE. Hallsville Field unit in East Texas and the Squirrel sand reservoir in Woodson County, Kans., which were conducted by Hunt Oil Co. and Brazos Oil and Gas Co., respectively.

A system for generating long streamflow records for study of floods of long return period: Phase 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franz, D.D.; Kraeger, B.A.; Linsley, R.K.

1989-02-01

Knowledge of the return periods of large floods is required to make risk analyses for nuclear power plants subject to flooding from rivers. The system reported here combined the stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall data and daily pan evaporation data with the deterministic simulation of streamflow by using the synthetic rainfall and evaporation data as input to a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The sequence of annual maximum flood peaks from a synthetic record of 10,000 years or more was then analyzed to obtain estimates of flood frequency. The reasonableness of the flood frequency results must be evaluated on the degree of mimicry of the key characteristics of the observed rainfall data and the ability of the rainfall-runoff model to mimic the observed flood frequency during the calibration period. On this basis, the flood frequency results appeared to be a reasonable extrapolation of the data used in defining the model parameters. There is a need to develop regional parameters for the stochastic models and to conduct research on the relationship between the stochastic structure of rainfall and stochastic structure of flood frequency. The methodology is applicable, assuming a highly skilled analyst, to watersheds similar to those already tested

The use of a flood index to characterise flooding in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhattacharya B.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flooding in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh is presented in this paper. A haor is a saucershaped depression, which is used during the dry period (Dec to mid-May for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (Jun-Nov. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss. The area is bordering India, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly by the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the flood propagation. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 from DHI and a two-dimensional model for the haors (based on MIKE 21 from DHI were developed. In order to characterize flooding in the large area a flood index is proposed, which is computed based on the hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient, flood magnitude ratio and time to peak. The index was used in characterising flooding in the Haor region. In general, two groups of rivers were identified. The study enabled identifying the hot-spots in the study area with risks from flooding.

Measuring flood footprint of a regional economy - A case study for the UK flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, D.

2013-12-01

Analysis of the urban economy and society is central to understanding the broad impacts of flooding and to identify cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Assessments of the flooding impacts on cities have traditionally focused on the initial impact on people and assets. These initial estimates (so-called ';direct damage') are useful both in understanding the immediate implications of damage, and in marshalling the pools of capital and supplies required for re-building after an event. Since different economies as well as societies are coupled, especially under the current economic crisis, any small-scale damage may be multiplied and cascaded throughout wider economic systems and social networks. The direct and indirect damage is currently not evaluated well and could be captured by quantification of what we call the flood footprint. Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e. the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to that. Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total socioeconomic impact that is directly and indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems and social networks. We adopt the UK 2012 flooding. An input-output basic dynamic inequalities (BDI) model is used to assess the impact of the floodings on the level of a Yorkshire economy, accounting for interactions between industries through demand and supply of intermediate consumption goods with a circular flow. After the disaster the economy will be unbalanced. The recovery process finishes when the economy is completely balance, i.e., when labour production capacity equals demands and production and all the variables reach pre-disaster levels. The analysis is carried out

Chemical systems, chemical contiguity and the emergence of life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kee, Terrence P.; Monnard, Pierre Alain

2017-01-01

to complex chemical systems over specific isolated functional apparatuses. We will summarize the recent advances in system chemistry and show that chemical systems in the geochemical context imply a form of chemical contiguity in the syntheses of the various molecules that precede modern biomolecules....

Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

2017-04-01

The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

Assessing infrastructure vulnerability to major floods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jenssen, Lars

1998-12-31

This thesis proposes a method for assessing the direct effects of serious floods on a physical infrastructure or utility. This method should be useful in contingency planning and in the design of structures likely to be damaged by flooding. A review is given of (1) methods of floodplain management and strategies for mitigating floods, (2) methods of risk analysis that will become increasingly important in flood management, (3) methods for hydraulic computations, (4) a variety of scour assessment methods and (5) applications of geographic information systems (GIS) to the analysis of flood vulnerability. Three computer codes were developed: CULVCAP computes the headwater level for circular and box culverts, SCOUR for assessing riprap stability and scour depths, and FASTFLOOD prepares input rainfall series and input files for the rainfall-runoff model used in the case study. A road system in central Norway was chosen to study how to analyse the flood vulnerability of an infrastructure. Finally, the thesis proposes a method for analysing the flood vulnerability of physical infrastructure. The method involves a general stage that will provide data on which parts of the infrastructure are potentially vulnerable to flooding and how to analyse them, and a specific stage which is concerned with analysing one particular kind of physical infrastructure in a study area. 123 refs., 59 figs., 17 tabs= .

Application of the "Behind the Barriers" resilience conceptual model to a flooded rail transport system

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzva, Michael; Barroca, Bruno

2017-04-01

The vulnerability of guided transport systems facing natural hazards is a burning issue for the urban risks management. Experience feedbacks on guided transport systems show they are particularly vulnerable to natural risks, especially flood risks. Besides, the resilience concept is used as a systemic approach for making an accurate analysis of the effect of these natural risks on rail guided transport systems. In this context, several conceptual models of resilience are elaborated for presenting the various possible resilience strategies applied to urban technical systems. One of this resilience conceptual model is the so-called "Behind The Barriers" model based on the identification of four complementary types of resilience: (i) cognitive resilience, linked to knowledge of the risk and the potential failures; (ii) functional resilience, representing the capacity of a system to protect itself from damage while continuing to provide services; (iii) correlative resilience, that characterises the relationship between service demand and the capacity of the system to respond; (iv) organisational resilience, expressing the capacity to mobilise an area much wider than the one affected. In addition to the work already published during the 7th Resilience Engineering Symposium, the purpose of this paper is to offer an application of a resilience conceptual model, the "Behind the Barriers" model, relating to a specific urban technical system, the public guided transport system, and facing a particular risk, a flood hazard. To do that, the paper is focused on a past incident on a French Intercity railway line as a studied case. Indeed, on June 18th and 19th 2013, the rise of the level of the "Gave de Pau" river, located in the municipality of Coarraze, caused many disorders on the intercity line serving the cities of Tarbes, Pau and Lourdes . Among the disorders caused by the flooding, about 100 meters of railway embankments were collapsed. With a constraint to reopen the

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

A methodology for urban flood resilience assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lhomme, Serge; Serre, Damien; Diab, Youssef; Laganier, Richard

2010-05-01

In Europe, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity [Szöllösi-Nagy and Zevenbergen, 2005]. Moreover, climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of hydro meteorological disaster [IPCC, 2007]. Despite efforts made to maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe levee failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although benefiting continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties arising all along data calculation processes. In the same time, the year 2007 marks a turning point in history: half of the world population now lives in cities (UN-Habitat, 2007). Moreover, the total urban population is expected to double from two to four billion over the next 30 to 35 years (United Nations, 2006). This growing rate is equivalent to the creation of a new city of one million inhabitants every week, and this during the next four decades [Flood resilience Group]. So, this quick urban development coupled with technical failures and climate change have increased flood risk and corresponding challenges to urban flood risk management [Ashley et al., 2007], [Nie et al., 2009]. These circumstances oblige to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like urban resilience. In recent years, resilience has become a central concept for risk management. This concept has emerged because a more resilient system is less vulnerable to risk and, therefore, more sustainable [Serre et al., 2010]. But urban flood resilience is a concept that has not yet been directly assessed. Therefore, when decision makers decide to use the resilience concept to manage urban flood, they have no tool to help them. That is why this paper proposes a methodology to assess urban flood resilience in order to make this concept operational. Networks affect the well-being of the people and the smooth functioning of services and, more generally, of economical activities. Yet

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Geochemical discrimination of five pleistocene Lava-Dam outburst-flood deposits, western Grand Canyon, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, C.R.; Poreda, R.J.; Nash, B.P.; Webb, R.H.; Cerling, T.E.

2004-01-01

Pleistocene basaltic lava dams and outburst-flood deposits in the western Grand Canyon, Arizona, have been correlated by means of cosmogenic 3He (3Hec) ages and concentrations of SiO2, Na2O, K2O, and rare earth elements. These data indicate that basalt clasts and vitroclasts in a given outburst-flood deposit came from a common source, a lava dam. With these data, it is possible to distinguish individual dam-flood events and improve our understanding of the interrelations of volcanism and river processes. At least five lava dams on the Colorado River failed catastrophically between 100 and 525 ka; subsequent outburst floods emplaced basalt-rich deposits preserved on benches as high as 200 m above the current river and up to 53 km downstream of dam sites. Chemical data also distinguishes individual lava flows that were collectively mapped in the past as large long-lasting dam complexes. These chemical data, in combination with age constraints, increase our ability to correlate lava dams and outburst-flood deposits and increase our understanding of the longevity of lava dams. Bases of correlated lava dams and flood deposits approximate the elevation of the ancestral river during each flood event. Water surface profiles are reconstructed and can be used in future hydraulic models to estimate the magnitude of these large-scale floods.

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1993--September 30, 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somasundaran, P.

1995-06-01

The aim of this project is to elucidate the mechanisms underlying adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effect of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, other inorganic and polymeric species is being studied. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro and nano spectroscopy, microcalorimetry, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability is used to achieve the goals. The results of this study should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and also in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the second year of this three year contract, adsorption/desorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures on alumina and silica was studied. Surfactants studied include the anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), cationic tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride (TTAC), nonionic pentadecylethoxylated nonyl phenol (NP-15) and the nonionic octaethylene glycol n-dodecyl ether (C{sub 12}EO{sub 8}) of varying hydrocarbon chain length. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer in terms of micropolarity and aggregation numbers was probed using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes of microstructure upon dilution (desorption) were also studied. Presence of the nonionic surfactant in the mixed aggregate led to shielding of the charge of the ionic surfactant which in-turn promoted aggregation but reduced electrostatic attraction between the charged surfactant and the mineral surface. Strong consequences of surfactant interactions in solution upon adsorption as well as correlations between monomer concentrations in mixtures and adsorption were revealed.

On the reliable use of satellite-derived surface water products for global flood monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Hirpa, F. A.; Revilla-Romero, B.; Thielen, J.; Salamon, P.; Brakenridge, R.; Pappenberger, F.; de Groeve, T.

2015-12-01

Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response management. To this end, real-time flood forecasting and satellite-based detection systems have been developed at global scale. However, due to the limited availability of up-to-date ground observations, the reliability of these systems for real-time applications have not been assessed in large parts of the globe. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of the commonly used satellite-based global flood detections and operational flood forecasting system using 10 major flood cases reported over three years (2012-2014). Specially, we assessed the flood detection capabilities of the near real-time global flood maps from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS), and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the operational forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) for the major flood events recorded in global flood databases. We present the evaluation results of the global flood detection and forecasting systems in terms of correctly indicating the reported flood events and highlight the exiting limitations of each system. Finally, we propose possible ways forward to improve the reliability of large scale flood monitoring tools.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?

Science.gov (United States)

Wiesenegger, H.

2003-04-01

On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for

Cyber Surveillance for Flood Disasters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi-Wei Lo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective.

Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tsimopoulou, V.; Kok, M.; Vrijling, J.K.

2015-01-01

After the flood disaster of 1953, the Netherlands adopted a rational approach to flood risk management with the use of protection standards determined by means of cost-benefit analysis. Due to scientific and political developments that have recently taken place, an update of the Dutch protection

The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mens, M.J.P.; Klijn, F.

2014-01-01

Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated

Application of RUNTA code in flood analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Martin, F.; Benitez Fonzalez, F.

1994-01-01

Flood probability analyses carried out to date indicate the need to evaluate a large number of flood scenarios. This necessity is due to a variety of reasons, the most important of which include: - Large number of potential flood sources - Wide variety of characteristics of flood sources - Large possibility of flood-affected areas becoming inter linked, depending on the location of the potential flood sources - Diversity of flood flows from one flood source, depending on the size of the rupture and mode of operation - Isolation times applicable - Uncertainties in respect of the structural resistance of doors, penetration seals and floors - Applicable degrees of obstruction of floor drainage system Consequently, a tool which carries out the large number of calculations usually required in flood analyses, with speed and flexibility, is considered necessary. The RUNTA Code enables the range of possible scenarios to be calculated numerically, in accordance with all those parameters which, as a result of previous flood analyses, it is necessary to take into account in order to cover all the possible floods associated with each flood area

The land use potential of flood-prone rice fields using floating rice system in Bojonegoro regency in East Java

Science.gov (United States)

Irianto, H.; Mujiyo; Riptanti, E. W.; Qonita, A.

2018-03-01

Bojonegoro regency occupies the largest flood-prone rice fields of about 14,198 hectares, in East Java province. Floods commonly occur due to Bengawan Solo river over-burst, particularly in rainy season. The fields are potential for cultivating rice, but floods lasting for months causing these areas to be unproductive. The objective of this article is to examine the potential land use of flood prone rice fields in Bojonegoro regency using floating rice system as an effort to maintain productivity in rainy season. The method of this study is referential study about the rice production using floating cultivation system in other regions, which are later compared with the physical condition of the fields in Bojonegoro. The results of analysis show that rice cultivation using floating system can maintain rice production in flood prone areas during rainy season. The potential production of rice is 5-6 tons/ha. However, technical problems for cultivating rice cannot be ignored since farmers are not familiar with cultivating flooded fields. This article also explains alternatives of floating rice cultivation technique, which can be implemented effectively and efficiently. Pioneer work of developing floating rice in Bojonegoro that has been done by the Team of Faculty of Agriculture of UNS, Surakarta, is expected to serve as a medium for accelerating the adoption of cultivation technology innovation to farmers.

Definition of Pluviometric Thresholds For A Real Time Flood Forecasting System In The Arno Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Amadio, P.; Mancini, M.; Mazzetti, P.; Menduni, G.; Nativi, S.; Rabuffetti, D.; Ravazzani, G.; Rosso, R.

The pluviometric flood forecasting thresholds are an easy method that helps river flood emergency management collecting data from limited area meteorologic model or telemetric raingauges. The thresholds represent the cumulated rainfall depth which generate critic discharge for a particular section. The thresholds were calculated for different sections of Arno river and for different antecedent moisture condition using the flood event distributed hydrologic model FEST. The model inputs were syntethic hietographs with different shape and duration. The system realibility has been verified by generating 500 year syntethic rainfall for 3 important subwatersheds of the studied area. A new technique to consider spatial variability of rainfall and soil properties effects on hydrograph has been investigated. The "Geomorphologic Weights" were so calculated. The alarm system has been implemented in a dedicated software (MIMI) that gets measured and forecast rainfall data from Autorità di Bacino and defines the state of the alert of the river sections.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

2015-04-01

perception and understanding of risk in the population. • Residual risk and the levee shadow effect - why the population "felt safe." • What is the overload case and how to implement it in flood protection systems? • Decision-making for the future under uncertainty - how to design to acceptable flood protection levels if we haven't seen yet what's physically possible. 3. How to protect - practical examples Finally, we outline practical examples for reducing the loss burden and risk over time. • "Flood protection hierarchy" - from location choice under a hazard perspective to mobile flood protection. • Risk-based approach and identification of critical infrastructure. • Integrated flood risk management in theory and practical application. • Role of insurance.

Pluvial, urban flood mechanisms and characteristics - Assessment based on insurance claims

Science.gov (United States)

Sörensen, Johanna; Mobini, Shifteh

2017-12-01

Pluvial flooding is a problem in many cities and for city planning purpose the mechanisms behind pluvial flooding are of interest. Previous studies seldom use insurance claim data to analyse city scale characteristics that lead to flooding. In the present study, two long time series (∼20 years) of flood claims from property owners have been collected and analysed in detail to investigate the mechanisms and characteristics leading to urban flooding. The flood claim data come from the municipal water utility company and property owners with insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls and flooding from the drainage system. These data are used as a proxy for flood severity for several events in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is discussed which rainfall characteristics give most flooding and why some rainfall events do not lead to severe flooding, how city scale topography and sewerage system type influence spatial distribution of flood claims, and which impact high sea level has on flooding in Malmö. Three severe flood events are described in detail and compared with a number of smaller flood events. It was found that the main mechanisms and characteristics of flood extent and its spatial distribution in Malmö are intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall, distance to the main sewer system as well as overland flow paths, and type of drainage system, while high sea level has little impact on the flood extent. Finally, measures that could be taken to lower the flood risk in Malmö, and other cities with similar characteristics, are discussed.

Flood risk analysis for flood control and sediment transportation in sandy regions: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Aijun; Chang, Jianxia; Wang, Yimin; Huang, Qiang; Zhou, Shuai

2018-05-01

Traditional flood risk analysis focuses on the probability of flood events exceeding the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures while neglecting the influence of sedimentation in river channels on regional flood control systems. This work advances traditional flood risk analysis by proposing a univariate and copula-based bivariate hydrological risk framework which incorporates both flood control and sediment transport. In developing the framework, the conditional probabilities of different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated by exploiting the copula-based model. Moreover, a Monte Carlo-based algorithm is designed to quantify the sampling uncertainty associated with univariate and bivariate hydrological risk analyses. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions: the upper catchments of the Xianyang and Huaxian stations (denoted as UCX and UCH, respectively). The univariate and bivariate return periods, risk and reliability in the context of uncertainty for the purposes of flood control and sediment transport are assessed for the study regions. The results indicate that sedimentation triggers higher risks of damaging the safety of local flood control systems compared with the event that AMF exceeds the design flood of downstream hydraulic structures in the UCX and UCH. Moreover, there is considerable sampling uncertainty affecting the univariate and bivariate hydrologic risk evaluation, which greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. In addition, results also confirm that the developed framework can estimate conditional probabilities associated with different flood events under various extreme precipitation scenarios aiming for flood control and sediment transport. The proposed hydrological risk framework offers a promising technical reference for flood risk analysis in sandy regions worldwide.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

Science.gov (United States)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

The European Flood Risk Directive and Ethics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mostert, E.; Doorn, N.

2012-01-01

The European Flood risk directive (2007/60/EC) requires EU Member States to review their system of flood risk management. In doing so, they will have to face ethical issues inherent in flood risk management. This paper discusses three such issues, using examples from the Netherlands. These issues

Policy learning for flood mitigation: a longitudinal assessment of the community rating system in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Brody, Samuel D; Zahran, Sammy; Highfield, Wesley E; Bernhardt, Sarah P; Vedlitz, Arnold

2009-06-01

Floods continue to inflict the most damage upon human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. Because localized flooding tends to be spatially repetitive over time, local decisionmakers often have an opportunity to learn from previous events and make proactive policy adjustments to reduce the adverse effects of a subsequent storm. Despite the importance of understanding the degree to which local jurisdictions learn from flood risks and under what circumstances, little if any empirical, longitudinal research has been conducted along these lines. This article addresses the research gap by examining the change in local flood mitigation policies in Florida from 1999 to 2005. We track 18 different mitigation activities organized into four series of activities under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) for every local jurisdiction in Florida participating in the FEMA program on a yearly time step. We then identify the major factors contributing to policy changes based on CRS scores over the seven-year study period. Using multivariate statistical models to analyze both natural and social science data, we isolate the effects of several variables categorized into the following groups: hydrologic conditions, flood disaster history, socioeconomic and human capital controls. Results indicate that local jurisdictions do in fact learn from histories of flood risk and this process is expedited under specific conditions.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

Science.gov (United States)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

The Calculation of Flooding Level using CFX Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Seo Bin; Kim, Keon Yeop; Lee, Hyung Ho

2015-01-01

The plant design should consider internal flooding by postulated pipe ruptures, component failures, actuation of spray systems, and improper system alignment. The flooding causes failure of safety-related equipment and affects the integrity of the structure. The safety-related equipment should be installed above the flood level for protection against flooding effects. Conservative estimates of the flood level are important when a DBA occurs. The flooding level can be calculated simply applying Bernoulli's equation. However, in this study, a realistic calculation is performed with ANSYS CFX code. In calculation with CFX, air-core vortex phenomena, and turbulent flow can be simulated, which cannot be calculated analytically. The flooding level is evaluated by analytical calculation and CFX analysis for an assumed condition. The flood level is calculated as 0.71m and 1.1m analytically and with CFX simulation, respectively. Comparing the analytical calculation and simulation, they are similar, but the analytical calculation is not conservative. There are many factors reducing the drainage capacity such as air-core vortex, intake of air, and turbulent flow. Therefore, in case of flood level evaluation by analytical calculation, a sufficient safety margin should be considered

Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

2015-05-01

In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javelle Pierre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2. It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014. This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr. It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories. The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate. Furthermore, specific

Distributed Simulation of City Inundation by Coupled Surface and Subsurface Porous Flow for Urban Flood Decision Support System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Chirkin, A.M.; Ivanov, S.V.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.; Sloot, P.M.A.

2013-01-01

We present a decision support system for flood early warning and disaster management. It includes the models for data- driven meteorological predictions, for simulation of atmospheric pressure, wind, long sea waves and seiches; a module for optimization of flood barrier gates operation; models for

The development of flood map in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

Water and chemical budgets in an urbanized river system under various hydrological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.

2017-04-01

Since historical times, riversides are preferential settlement places for human life and activities, ultimately leading to the development of Cities. Available water resources are not only essential to ensure human's vital functions, they are also used for the production of food, goods, and energy, as transport routes and as evacuation ways for domestic and industrial waste products. All these activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. An extreme example of strongly modified river system is the river Zenne crossing the city of Brussels. In and around the city, the river together with its connected navigation canal, determine a small vertical urbanized area (800 km2) combining extreme land-use landscapes. While the southern upstream part of this area lies in a region of intensive agricultural activities, the central part is occupied by a dense cityscape including a forested area, and the downstream part is mainly under industrial influence. In this context, we established a box-model representation of water and selected polluting chemicals (N and P, biological oxygen demand, and a selection of metals, pesticides and PAHs) budgets for the studied area under variable hydrological conditions. We first have identified the general distribution of water and pollutant tracers in the various background sources of the system: waters in streams located in the very upstream parts of the catchment, and untreated and treated sewage. Secondly we have assessed the distribution of water flows, and pollutant tracer concentrations at the boundaries of the studied water systems for different stable hydrological conditions and during flood events. Finally we will discuss water budgets and pollution tracer budgets for a yearly average hydrological situation and for dry and wet weather conditions in order

Early physiological flood tolerance is followed by slow post-flooding root recovery in the dryland riparian tree Eucalyptus camaldulensis subsp. refulgens.

Science.gov (United States)

Argus, R E; Colmer, T D; Grierson, P F

2015-06-01

We investigated physiological and morphological responses to flooding and recovery in Eucalyptus camaldulensis subsp. refulgens, a riparian tree species from a dryland region prone to intense episodic floods. Seedlings in soil flooded for 88 d produced extensive adventitious roots, displayed stem hypertrophy (stem diameter increased by 93%) and increased root porosity owing to aerenchyma formation. Net photosynthesis (Pn) and stomatal conductance (gs) were maintained for at least 2 weeks of soil flooding, contrasting with previous studies of other subspecies of E. camaldulensis. Gradual declines followed in both gs (30% less than controls) and Pn (19% less). Total leaf soluble sugars did not differ between flooded and control plants. Root mass did not recover 32 d after flooding ceased, but gs was not lower than controls, suggesting the root system was able to functionally compensate. However, the limited root growth during recovery after flooding was surprising given the importance of extensive root systems in dryland environments. We conclude that early flood tolerance could be an adaptation to capitalize on scarce water resources in a water-limited environment. Overall, our findings highlight the need to assess flooding responses in relation to a species' fitness for particular flood regimes or ecological niches. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of

Impact of contaminants on aquatic systems and inundated sites with respect to flood events - In vitro biotests, chemical target analysis and fractionation methods

OpenAIRE

Wölz, Jan

2009-01-01

Scope of the present study is the development and application of aquatic in vitro bioassays and methods of effect-directed analysis (EDA). It aims at investigating contamination of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and pollution of inundated sites and riparian aquifer, respectively. In the first part of this study, SPM was sampled during flood events and toxicological activities were determined. The second part of the study dealt with possible conflict of interests between flood management (...

[Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

Science.gov (United States)

Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

2014-02-01

In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

Technical evaluation of the susceptibility of safety-related systems to flooding caused by the failure of non-Category I systems for Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant, Units 3 and 4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, E.K.

1979-08-01

Three separate reviews of the Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 were conducted by the FPLCO between 1972 and 1975. Initially, at the request of NBC in 1972, the FPLCO reviewed several water systems as sources of flooding. Subsequently, as a result of an abnormal occurrence, the drainage system was reviewed. Finally, the facilities were again reviewed at NRC's request and both the potential sources of flooding and safety-related equipment which could be damaged by flooding were identified. The sources of flooding and the appropriate safety equipment are discussed. An evaluation is presented of measures that were taken by FPLCO to minimize the danger of flooding and to protect safety-related equipment

Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

2017-10-01

Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable

Towards a Flood Severity Index

Science.gov (United States)

Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

Prediction of flood abnormalities for improved public safety using a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

Science.gov (United States)

Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S

2006-01-01

It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other

Drivers of flood damage on event level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

2016-01-01

example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number......-level mitigation measures, 3) more effective early warning and improved coordination of disaster response and 4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defence systems and their deliberate relocation. Thus, despite higher hydrological severity damage due to the 2013 flood was significantly lower than in 2002. In our...

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1992--September 30 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casteel, J. [Bartlesville Project Office, OK (United States)

1996-07-01

The aim of this research project was to investigate mechanisms governing adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effects of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, various inorganic and polymeric species, and solids mineralogy have been determined. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro & nano spectroscopy, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability is used in this study. The results obtained should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the three years contract period, adsorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures was studied at the solid-liquid and gas-liquid interfaces. Alkyl xylene sulfonates, polyethoxylated alkyl phenols, octaethylene glycol mono n-decyl ether, and tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride were the surfactants studied. Adsorption of surfactant mixtures of varying composition was also investigated. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer was characterized using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes in interfacial properties such as wettability, electrokinetics and stability of reservoir minerals were correlated with the amounts of reagent adsorbed. Strong effects of the structure of the surfactant and position of functional groups were revealed. Changes of microstructure upon dilution (desorption) were also studied. Presence of the nonionic surfactants in mixed aggregate leads to shielding of the charge of ionic surfactants which in turn promotes aggregation but reduced electrostatic attraction between the charged surfactant and the mineral surface. Strong consequences of surfactant interactions in solution on adsorption as well as correlations between monomer concentration in mixtures and adsorption were revealed.

Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Rözer

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.

The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eui Hoon Lee

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

Science.gov (United States)

Aksoy, Hafzullah; Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Veysel; Burgan, Halil Ibrahim; Kellecioglu, Dorukhan

2016-05-01

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Aksoy

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Geographic Information Systems (GIS are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

Methodology for flood risk analysis for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Casada, M.L.; Fussell, J.B.

1984-01-01

The methodology for flood risk analysis described here addresses the effects of a flood on nuclear power plant safety systems. Combining the results of this method with the probability of a flood allows the effects of flooding to be included in a probabilistic risk assessment. The five-step methodology includes accident sequence screening to focus the detailed analysis efforts on the accident sequences that are significantly affected by a flood event. The quantitative results include the flood's contribution to system failure probability, accident sequence occurrence frequency and consequence category occurrence frequency. The analysis can be added to existing risk assessments without a significant loss in efficiency. The results of two example applications show the usefulness of the methodology. Both examples rely on the Reactor Safety Study for the required risk assessment inputs and present changes in the Reactor Safety Study results as a function of flood probability

Evaluation of internal flooding in a BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiu, K.; Papazoglou, I.A.; Sun, Y.H.; Anavim, E.; Ilberg, D.

1985-01-01

Flooding inside a nuclear power station is capable of concurrently disabling redundant safety systems. This paper presents the results of a recent review study performed on internally-generated floods inside a boiling water reactor (BWR) reactor building. The study evaluated the flood initiator frequency due to either maintenance or ruptures using Markovian models. A time phased event tree approach was adopted to quantify the core damage frequency based on the flood initiator frequency. It is found in the study that the contribution to the total core damage due to internal flooding events is not insignificant and is comparable to other transient contributors. The findings also indicate that the operator plays an important role in the prevention as well as the mitigation of a flooding event

Passive pH adjustment of nuclear reactor containment flood water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerlowski, T.J.

1986-01-01

A method is described of automatically and passively adjusting the pH of the recirculating liquid used to flood the containment structure of a nuclear reactor upon the occurence of an accident in order to cool the reactor core, wherein the containment structure has a concrete floor which is provided with at least one sump from which the liquid is withdrawn for recirculation via at least one outlet pipe. The method consists of: prior to flooding and during or prior to normal operation of the reactor, providing at least one perforated basket within at least one sump with the basket containing crystals of a pH adjusting chemical which is soluble in the liquid, and covering each basket with a plastic coating which is likewise soluble in the liquid, whereby upon flooding of the containment structure the liquid in the sump will reach the level of the baskets, causing the coating and the crystals to be dissolved and the chemical to mix with the recirculating liquid to adjust the pH

An assessment of flood vulnerability on physical development along ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mohammad

Key words: Drainage channel, flood, risk assessment, vulnerability. INTRODUCTION ... hydraulic and other control structures.” The effects of floods are always ..... An application of Geographic Information System in mapping flood risk zones in ...

Risk assessment of urban flood disaster in Jingdezhen City based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, D. C.; Huang, J.; Wang, H. M.; Wang, Z. Q.; Wang, W. Q.

2017-08-01

The research of urban flood risk assessment and management are of great academic and practical importance, which has become a widespread concern throughout the world. It’s significant to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of the flood risk before making the risk response measures. In this study, the urban region of Jingdezhen City is selected as the study area. The assessment indicators are selected from four aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-bearing body and the prevention and mitigation ability, by consideration of the formation process of urban flood risk. And then, a small-scale flood disaster risk assessment model is developed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Geographic Information System(GIS), and the spatial-temporal distribution of flood risk in Jingdezhen City is analysed. The results show that the risk decreases gradually from the centre line of Changjiang River to the surrounding, and the areas of high flood disaster risk is decreasing from 2010 to 2013 while the risk areas are more concentred. The flood risk of the areas along the Changjiang River is the largest, followed by the low-lying areas in Changjiang District. And the risk is also large in Zhushan District where the population, the industries and commerce are concentrated. The flood risk in the western part of Changjiang District and the north-eastern part of the study area is relatively low. The results can provide scientific support for flood control construction and land development planning in Jingdezhen City.

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

2008-01-01

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Association between Floods and Acute Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Cohort Study Using a Geographic Information System Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanasse, Alain; Cohen, Alan; Courteau, Josiane; Bergeron, Patrick; Dault, Roxanne; Gosselin, Pierre; Blais, Claudia; Bélanger, Diane; Rochette, Louis; Chebana, Fateh

2016-01-28

Floods represent a serious threat to human health beyond the immediate risk of drowning. There is few data on the potential link between floods and direct consequences on health such as on cardiovascular health. This study aimed to explore the impact of one of the worst floods in the history of Quebec, Canada on acute cardiovascular diseases (CVD). A cohort study with a time series design with multiple control groups was built with the adult population identified in the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. A geographic information system approach was used to define the study areas. Logistic regressions were performed to compare the occurrence of CVD between groups. The results showed a 25%-27% increase in the odds in the flooded population in spring 2011 when compared with the population in the same area in springs 2010 and 2012. Besides, an increase up to 69% was observed in individuals with a medical history of CVD. Despite interesting results, the association was not statistically significant. A possible explanation to this result can be that the population affected by the flood was probably too small to provide the statistical power to answer the question, and leaves open a substantial possibility for a real and large effect.

Two modelling approaches to water-quality simulation in a flooded iron-ore mine (Saizerais, Lorraine, France): a semi-distributed chemical reactor model and a physically based distributed reactive transport pipe network model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamm, V; Collon-Drouaillet, P; Fabriol, R

2008-02-19

The flooding of abandoned mines in the Lorraine Iron Basin (LIB) over the past 25 years has degraded the quality of the groundwater tapped for drinking water. High concentrations of dissolved sulphate have made the water unsuitable for human consumption. This problematic issue has led to the development of numerical tools to support water-resource management in mining contexts. Here we examine two modelling approaches using different numerical tools that we tested on the Saizerais flooded iron-ore mine (Lorraine, France). A first approach considers the Saizerais Mine as a network of two chemical reactors (NCR). The second approach is based on a physically distributed pipe network model (PNM) built with EPANET 2 software. This approach considers the mine as a network of pipes defined by their geometric and chemical parameters. Each reactor in the NCR model includes a detailed chemical model built to simulate quality evolution in the flooded mine water. However, in order to obtain a robust PNM, we simplified the detailed chemical model into a specific sulphate dissolution-precipitation model that is included as sulphate source/sink in both a NCR model and a pipe network model. Both the NCR model and the PNM, based on different numerical techniques, give good post-calibration agreement between the simulated and measured sulphate concentrations in the drinking-water well and overflow drift. The NCR model incorporating the detailed chemical model is useful when a detailed chemical behaviour at the overflow is needed. The PNM incorporating the simplified sulphate dissolution-precipitation model provides better information of the physics controlling the effect of flow and low flow zones, and the time of solid sulphate removal whereas the NCR model will underestimate clean-up time due to the complete mixing assumption. In conclusion, the detailed NCR model will give a first assessment of chemical processes at overflow, and in a second time, the PNM model will provide more

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

Science.gov (United States)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

Two-dimensional Model of Ciliwung River Flood in DKI Jakarta for Development of the Regional Flood Index Map

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Formánek

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to present a sophisticated method of developing supporting material for flood control implementation in DKI Jakarta. High flow rates in the Ciliwung River flowing through Jakarta regularly causes extensive flooding in the rainy season. The affected area comprises highly densely populated villages. For developing an efficient early warning system in view of decreasing the vulnerability of the locations a flood index map has to be available. This study analyses the development of a flood risk map of the inundation area based on a two-dimensional modeling using FESWMS. The reference event used for the model was the most recent significant flood in 2007. The resulting solution represents flood characteristics such as inundation area, inundation depth and flow velocity. Model verification was performed by confrontation of the results with survey data. The model solution was overlaid with a street map of Jakarta. Finally, alternatives for flood mitigation measures are discussed.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buijs, F.A.; Hall, J.W.; Sayers, P.B.; Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. van

2009-01-01

This paper describes the underlying theory and a practical process for establishing time-dependent reliability models for components in a realistic and complex flood defence system. Though time-dependent reliability models have been applied frequently in, for example, the offshore, structural safety and nuclear industry, application in the safety-critical field of flood defence has to date been limited. The modelling methodology involves identifying relevant variables and processes, characterisation of those processes in appropriate mathematical terms, numerical implementation, parameter estimation and prediction. A combination of stochastic, hierarchical and parametric processes is employed. The approach is demonstrated for selected deterioration mechanisms in the context of a flood defence system. The paper demonstrates that this structured methodology enables the definition of credible statistical models for time-dependence of flood defences in data scarce situations. In the application of those models one of the main findings is that the time variability in the deterioration process tends to be governed the time-dependence of one or a small number of critical attributes. It is demonstrated how the need for further data collection depends upon the relevance of the time-dependence in the performance of the flood defence system.

Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

Application of the Unbounded Probability Distribution of the Johnson System for Floods Estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Floods designs constitute a key to estimate the sizing of new water works and to review the hydrological security of existing ones. The most reliable method for estimating their magnitudes associated with certain return periods is to fit a probabilistic model to available records of maximum annual flows. Since such model is at first unknown, several models need to be tested in order to select the most appropriate one according to an arbitrary statistical index, commonly the standard error of fit. Several probability distributions have shown versatility and consistency of results when processing floods records and therefore, its application has been established as a norm or precept. The Johnson System has three families of distributions, one of which is the Log–Normal model with three parameters of fit, which is also the border between the bounded distributions and those with no upper limit. These families of distributions have four adjustment parameters and converge to the standard normal distribution, so that their predictions are obtained with such a model. Having contrasted the three probability distributions established by precept in 31 historical records of hydrological events, the Johnson system is applied to such data. The results of the unbounded distribution of the Johnson system (SJU are compared to the optimal results from the three distributions. It was found that the predictions of the SJU distribution are similar to those obtained with the other models in the low return periods ( 1000 years. Because of its theoretical support, the SJU model is recommended in flood estimation.

A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

KAUST Repository

Mousa, Mustafa

2015-10-19

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

A Novel Dual Traffic/Flash Flood Monitoring System Using Passive Infrared/Ultrasonic Sensors

KAUST Repository

Mousa, Mustafa; Odat, Enas M.; Claudel, Christian

2015-01-01

Floods are the most common type of natural disaster, causing thousands of casualties every year. Among these events, urban flash floods are particularly deadly because of the short timescales on which they occur, and because of the high concentration of population in cities. Since most flash flood casualties are caused by a lack of information, it is critical to generate accurate and detailed warnings of flash floods. However, deploying an infrastructure that solely monitor flash floods makes little economic sense, since the average periodicity of catastrophic flash floods exceeds the lifetime of a typical sensor network. To address this issue, we propose a new sensing device that can simultaneously monitor urban flash floods and another phenomenon of interest (traffic congestion on the present case). This sensing device is based on the combination of an ultrasonic rangefinder with one or multiple remote temperature sensors. We show an implementation of this device, and illustrate its performance in both traffic flow and flash flood sensing. Field data shows that the sensor can detect vehicles with a 99% accuracy, in addition to estimating their speed and classifying them in function of their length. The same sensor can also monitor urban water levels with an accuracy of less than 2 cm. Two of the sensors have been deployed in a flood prone area, where they captured the only (minor) flash flood that occurred over the one-year test period, with no false detection, and an agreement in the estimated water level estimate (during the flash flood event) of about 2 cm.

System for chemical decontamination of nuclear reactor primary systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schlonski, J.S.; McGiure, M.F.; Corpora, G.J.

1992-01-01

This patent describes a method of chemically decontaminating a nuclear reactor primary system, having a residual heat removal system with one or more residual heat removal heat exchangers, each having an upstream and a downstream side, at or above ambient pressure. It comprises: injecting decontamination chemicals using an injection means; circulating the injected decontamination chemicals throughout the primary system; directing the circulated decontamination chemicals and process fluids to a means for removing suspended solids and dissolved materials after the circulated chemicals and process fluids have passed through the residual heat removal heat exchanger; decontaminating the process fluids; and feeding the decontaminated process fluids to the injection means. This patent also describes a chemical decontamination system for use at, or above, ambient pressure in a nuclear reactor primary system having a residual heat removal system. It comprises: means for injecting decontamination chemicals into the primary system; means for removing dissolved and suspended materials and decontamination chemicals from the primary system; one or more residual heat removal pumps; means located downstream of one of the residual heat removal heat exchangers; and a return line connecting the means

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slobodan Kolaković

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

Flood susceptibility mapping using novel ensembles of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Razavi Termeh, Seyed Vahid; Kornejady, Aiding; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Keesstra, Saskia

2018-02-15

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters which cause great financial and life losses per year. Therefore, producing susceptibility maps for flood management are necessary in order to reduce its harmful effects. The aim of the present study is to map flood hazard over the Jahrom Township in Fars Province using a combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) with different metaheuristics algorithms such as ant colony optimization (ACO), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) and comparing their accuracy. A total number of 53 flood locations areas were identified, 35 locations of which were randomly selected in order to model flood susceptibility and the remaining 16 locations were used to validate the models. Learning vector quantization (LVQ), as one of the supervised neural network methods, was employed in order to estimate factors' importance. Nine flood conditioning factors namely: slope degree, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance from river, land use/land cover, rainfall, and lithology were selected and the corresponding maps were prepared in ArcGIS. The frequency ratio (FR) model was used to assign weights to each class within particular controlling factor, then the weights was transferred into MATLAB software for further analyses and to combine with metaheuristic models. The ANFIS-PSO was found to be the most practical model in term of producing the highly focused flood susceptibility map with lesser spatial distribution related to highly susceptible classes. The chi-square result attests the same, where the ANFIS-PSO had the highest spatial differentiation within flood susceptibility classes over the study area. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from ROC curve indicated the accuracy of 91.4%, 91.8%, 92.6% and 94.5% for the respective models of FR, ANFIS-ACO, ANFIS-GA, and ANFIS-PSO ensembles. So, the ensemble of ANFIS-PSO was introduced as the

Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slomp Robert

2016-01-01

Rijkswaterstaat. Other organisations use these forecasts to define the consequences of the forecast, to take measures (as the evacuation of camping places on rivers banks or lake shores or to estimate the conditional probability of failure of a flood defence. Increasing the resilience of the population by disseminating information from both policy studies (flood scenarios and flood forecasts has been the project goal of the MEGO project “Module Evacuatie Grote Overstromingen”, an information tool for large scale evacuation due to floods. This information is available on a national website. The MEGO project has focussed on making the information from two major policy studies on flood risk available, the first sturdy determined new risk-based standards for flood defences (WV21. The second study determined the current flood risk (VNK-2. The MEGO database contains a selection of verified flood scenario’s. For each scenario the hydraulic loads which will cause a flood are known as are the probabilities of flooding and predicted casualties and damages. Overland flow maps are available. MEGO combines this data with the flood forecast, open data of the “Cadastre” (national Registry, the national digital terrain model (AHN and the main infrastructure (local, regional and national. The site offers prepared and real time maps for professionals during a crisis, and tools to increase risk awareness for citizens. The software was recently renamed national water and flood information system, “Landelijk Informatiesysteem Water en Overstromingen (LIWO ’ when it went live in 2016. In LIWO the second goal of MEGO was realized, by adding the information from flood forecasts. It is an open source model.

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Computational Systems Chemical Biology

OpenAIRE

Oprea, Tudor I.; May, Elebeoba E.; Leitão, Andrei; Tropsha, Alexander

2011-01-01

There is a critical need for improving the level of chemistry awareness in systems biology. The data and information related to modulation of genes and proteins by small molecules continue to accumulate at the same time as simulation tools in systems biology and whole body physiologically-based pharmacokinetics (PBPK) continue to evolve. We called this emerging area at the interface between chemical biology and systems biology systems chemical biology, SCB (Oprea et al., 2007).

Knowledge Discovery, Integration and Communication for Extreme Weather and Flood Resilience Using Artificial Intelligence: Flood AI Alpha

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

2016-12-01

Nobody is immune from extreme events or natural hazards that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. One of the solutions to reduce the impacts of extreme events is to invest in improving resilience with the ability to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This abstracts presents our project on developing a resilience framework for flooding to improve societal preparedness with objectives; (a) develop a generalized ontology for extreme events with primary focus on flooding; (b) develop a knowledge engine with voice recognition, artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and inference engine. The knowledge engine will utilize the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery outputs on flooding; (c) develop a data acquisition and processing framework from existing environmental observations, forecast models, and social networks. The system will utilize the framework, capabilities and user base of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) to populate and test the system; (d) develop a communication framework to support user interaction and delivery of information to users. The interaction and delivery channels will include voice and text input via web-based system (e.g. IFIS), agent-based bots (e.g. Microsoft Skype, Facebook Messenger), smartphone and augmented reality applications (e.g. smart assistant), and automated web workflows (e.g. IFTTT, CloudWork) to open the knowledge discovery for flooding to thousands of community extensible web workflows.

Modeling urban coastal flood severity from crowd-sourced flood reports using Poisson regression and Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2018-04-01

Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Brilly

2005-01-01

Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

Added value of online satellite data transmission for flood forecasting: warning systems in medium-size catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruch, C; Stadler, H

2009-01-01

The present paper deals with the implementation of online data transferred via LEO satellite communication in a flood forecasting system. Although the project is ongoing, it is already recognised that the information chain: "measurement-transmission-forecast-alert" can be shortened, i.e., the flood danger can be more rapidly communicated to the population at risk. This gain is particularly valuable for medium size catchments where the concentration time (basin time of response to rainfall) is short.

Emotional engagement with participatory simulations as a tool for learning and decision-support for coupled human-natural systems: Flood hazards and urban development

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, J. M.; Corey, B.; Camp, J. V.; John, N. J.; Sengupta, P.

2015-12-01

The complex interactions between land use and natural hazards pose serious challenges in education, research, and public policy. Where complex nonlinear interactions produce unintuitive results, interactive computer simulations can be useful tools for education and decision support. Emotions play important roles in cognition and learning, especially where risks are concerned. Interactive simulations have the potential to harness emotional engagement to enhance learning and understanding of risks in coupled human-natural systems. We developed a participatory agent-based simulation of cities at risk of river flooding. Participants play the role of managers of neighboring cities along a flood-prone river and make choices about building flood walls to protect their inhabitants. Simulated agents participate in dynamic real estate markets in which demand for property, and thus values and decisions to build, respond to experience with flooding over time. By reducing high-frequency low-magnitude flooding, flood walls may stimulate development, thus increasing tax revenues but also increasing vulnerability to uncommon floods that overtop the walls. Flood waves are launched stochastically and propagate downstream. Flood walls that restrict overbank flow at one city can increase the amplitude of a flood wave at neighboring cities, both up and downstream. We conducted a pilot experiment with a group of three pre-service teachers. The subjects successfully learned key concepts of risk tradeoffs and unintended consequences that can accompany flood-control measures. We also observed strong emotional responses, including hope, fear, and sense of loss. This emotional engagement with a model of coupled human-natural systems was very different from previous experiments on participatory simulations of purely natural systems for physics pedagogy. We conducted a second session in which the participants were expert engineers. We will present the results of these experiments and the

Sinkhole flooding in Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee, 2001-02

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Michael W.; Hileman, Gregg Edward

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Murfreesboro, Tennessee, conducted an investigation from January 2001 through April 2002 to delineate sinkholes and sinkhole watersheds in the Murfreesboro area and to characterize the hydrologic response of sinkholes to major rainfall events. Terrain analysis was used to define sinkholes and delineate the sinkhole drainage areas. Flooding in 78 sinkholes in three focus areas was identified and tracked using aerial photography following three major storms in February 2001, January 2002, and March 2002. The three focus areas are located to the east, north, and northwest of Murfreesboro and are underlain primarily by the Ridley Limestone with some outcrops of the underlying Pierce Limestone. The observed sinkhole flooding is controlled by water inflow, water outflow, and the degree of the hydraulic connection (connectivity) to a ground-water conduit system. The observed sinkholes in the focus areas are grouped into three categories based on the sinkhole morphology and the connectivity to the ground-water system as indicated by their response to flooding. The three types of sinkholes described for these focus areas are pan sinkholes with low connectivity, deep sinkholes with high connectivity, and deep sinkholes with low connectivity to the ground-water conduit system. Shallow, broad pan sinkholes flood as water inflow from a storm inundates the depression at land surface. Water overflow from one pan sinkhole can flow downgradient and become inflow to a sinkhole at a lower altitude. Land-surface modifications that direct more water into a pan sinkhole could increase peak-flood altitudes and extend flood durations. Land-surface modifications that increase the outflow by overland drainage could decrease the flood durations. Road construction or alterations that reduce flow within or between pan sinkholes could result in increased flood durations. Flood levels and durations in the deeper sinkholes observed in

Global and Regional Real-time Systems for Flood and Drought Monitoring and Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Xue, X.; Flamig, Z.

2015-12-01

A Hydrometeorological Extreme Mapping and Prediction System (HyXtreme-MaP), initially built upon the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, is driven by real-time quasi-global TRMM/GPM satellites and by the US Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar network with dual-polarimetric upgrade to simulate streamflow, actual ET, soil moisture and other hydrologic variables at 1/8th degree resolution quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) and at 250-meter 2.5-mintue resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS: http://flash.ou.edu).­ Multifaceted and collaborative by-design, this end-to-end research framework aims to not only integrate data, models, and applications but also brings people together (i.e., NOAA, NASA, University researchers, and end-users). This presentation will review the progresses, challenges and opportunities of such HyXTREME-MaP System used to monitor global floods and droughts, and also to predict flash floods over the CONUS.

Flood risk analysis procedure for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a methodology and procedure for determining the impact of floods on nuclear power plant risk. The procedures are based on techniques of fault tree and event tree analysis and use the logic of these techniques to determine the effects of a flood on system failure probability and accident sequence occurrence frequency. The methodology can be applied independently or as an add-on analysis for an existing risk assessment. Each stage of the analysis yields useful results such as the critical flood level, failure flood level, and the flood's contribution to accident sequence occurrence frequency. The results of applications show the effects of floods on the risk from nuclear power plants analyzed in the Reactor Safety Study

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed

OpenAIRE

Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Bates, Paul D.; de Bruijn, Karin; Castellarin, Attilio; Kreibich, Heidi; Priest, Sally J.; Schröter, Kai; Bagli, Stefano; Blöschl, Günter; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gouldby, Ben; Klijn, Frans; Lammersen, Rita; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Ridder, Nina

2018-01-01

Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insura...

Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkade, J.S.; Werner, M.G.F.

2011-01-01

Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed floods, or surprises. This forecasting

Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

Flood characteristics of the Haor area in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Suman, Asadusjjaman; Bhattacharya, Biswa

2013-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Bangladesh is a country, which is frequently suffering from flooding. The current research is conducted in the framework of a project, which focuses on the flooding issues in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh. A haor is a saucer-shaped depression, which is used during the dry period (December to mid-May) for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (June-November), and thereby presents a very interesting socio-economic perspective of flood risk management. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss and lot of distress whereas monsoon flooding brings benefits. The area is bordering India, thereby presenting trans-boundary issues as well, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly through the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the impact of climate changes. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 modelling tool from Danish Hydraulic Institute) and a two

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

A Methodology to Define Flood Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Tourbier, J.

2012-04-01

Flood resilience has become an internationally used term with an ever-increasing number of entries on the Internet. The SMARTeST Project is looking at approaches to flood resilience through case studies at cities in various countries, including Washington D.C. in the United States. In light of U.S. experiences a methodology is being proposed by the author that is intended to meet ecologic, spatial, structural, social, disaster relief and flood risk aspects. It concludes that: "Flood resilience combines (1) spatial, (2) structural, (3) social, and (4) risk management levels of flood preparedness." Flood resilience should incorporate all four levels, but not necessarily with equal emphasis. Stakeholders can assign priorities within different flood resilience levels and the considerations they contain, dividing 100% emphasis into four levels. This evaluation would be applied to planned and completed projects, considering existing conditions, goals and concepts. We have long known that the "road to market" for the implementation of flood resilience is linked to capacity building of stakeholders. It is a multidisciplinary enterprise, involving the integration of all the above aspects into the decision-making process. Traditional flood management has largely been influenced by what in the UK has been called "Silo Thinking", involving constituent organizations that are responsible for different elements, and are interested only in their defined part of the system. This barrier to innovation also has been called the "entrapment effect". Flood resilience is being defined as (1) SPATIAL FLOOD RESILIENCE implying the management of land by floodplain zoning, urban greening and management to reduce storm runoff through depression storage and by practicing Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUD's), Best Management Practices (BMP's, or Low Impact Development (LID). Ecologic processes and cultural elements are included. (2) STRUCTURAL FLOOD RESILIENCE referring to permanent flood defense

Comparative experiments on polymer degradation technique of produced water of polymer flooding oilfield

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Rong; Qi, Mei; Zhang, Guohui; Yi, Chenggao

2018-02-01

The application of polymer flooding technology in oilfields can result in polymer content increased in produced water. This increasing made produced water quality become poor. The efficiency of produced water processing decreased significantly. Processed water quality seriously exceeded criterion’s stipulation. The presence of the polymer in produced water is the main reason for more difficulties in processing of produced water, therefore the polymer degradation technology is a key coefficient in produced water processing for polymer flooding oilfields. We evaluated several physical and chemical polymer degradation methods with the solution of separated water from polymer flooding oilfields and hydrolyzed polyacrylamide. The experiment results can provide a basis for produced water processing technologies application in polymer flooding oilfields.

Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borga, M.; Anagnostou, E.N.; Bloeschl, G.; Creutin, J.-D.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We characterize flash flood events in various regions of Europe. → We provide guidance to improve observations and monitoring of flash floods. → Flash floods are associated to orography and are influenced by initial soil moisture conditions. → Models for flash flood forecasting and flash flood hazard assessment are illustrated and discussed. → We examine implications for flood risk policy and discuss recommendations received from end users. - Abstract: The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

The 2014 Karnali River Floods in Western Nepal: Making Community Based Early Warning Systems Work When Data Is Lacking

Science.gov (United States)

Dugar, S.; MacClune, K.; Venkateswaran, K.; Yadav, S.; Szoenyi, M.

2015-12-01

Implementing Community Based Flood Early Warning System (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal is challenging. Complex topography and geology combined with a sparse network of river and rainfall gauges and little predictive meteorological capacity both nationally and regionally dramatically constrain EWS options. This paper provides a synopsis of the hydrological and meteorological conditions that led to flooding in the Karnali River, West Nepal during mid-August 2014, and analyses the effectiveness of flood EWS in the region. On August 14-15, 2014, a large, slow moving weather system deposited record breaking rainfall in the foothills of the Karnali River catchment. Precipitation depths of 200 to 500 mm were recorded over a 24-hour period, which led to rapid rise of river heights. At the Chisapani river gauge station used for the existing EWS, where the Karnali River exits the Himalaya onto the Indo-Gangetic Plain, water levels rapidly exceeded the 11 meter danger level. Between 3 to 6 am, water levels rose from 11 to 16. 1 meters, well beyond the design height of 15 meters. Analysis suggests that 2014 floods may have been a one-in-1000 year event. Starting with the onset of intense rainfall, the Chisapani gauge reader was in regular communication with downstream stakeholders and communities providing them with timely information regarding rising water level. This provided people just enough time to move to safe places with their livestock and key assets. Though households still lost substantial assets, without the EWS, floodwaters would have caught communities completely unaware and damage would almost certainly have been much worse. In particular, despite the complications associated with access to the Chisapani gauge and failure of critical communication nodes during the floods, EWS was instrumental in saving lives. This study explores both the details of the flood event and performance of the early warning system, and identifies lessons learned to help

Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

Global Near Real-Time Satellite-based Flood Monitoring and Product Dissemination

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, M.; Slayback, D. A.; Policelli, F.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Tokay, M.

2012-12-01

Flooding is among the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disasters faced by modern society, with several major events occurring each year. In the past few years, major floods have devastated parts of China, Thailand, Pakistan, Australia, and the Philippines, among others. The toll of these events, in financial costs, displacement of individuals, and deaths, is substantial and continues to rise as climate change generates more extreme weather events. When these events do occur, the disaster management community requires frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and better coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we have developed, and are now operating, a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide critical flood extent information within 24-48 hours after flooding events. The system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery received from the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard. The LANCE system typically processes imagery in less than 3 hours after satellite overpass, and our flood mapping system can output flood products within ½ hour of acquiring the LANCE products. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows an initial assessment of flooding extent by late afternoon, every day, and more robust assessments after accumulating imagery over a longer period; the MODIS sensors are optical, so cloud cover remains an issue, which is partly overcome by using multiple looks over one or more days. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters), the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extents. We have made progress on some of these issues

Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Custer, Rocco

protection structures in the hierarchical flood protection system - is identified. To optimise the design of protection structures, fragility and vulnerability models must allow for consideration of decision alternatives. While such vulnerability models are available for large protection structures (e...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...... and robust. Traditional risk management solutions, e.g. dike construction, are not particularly flexible, as they are difficult to adapt to changing risk. Conversely, the recent concept of integrated flood risk management, entailing a combination of several structural and non-structural risk management...

Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

Science.gov (United States)

Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

A complete CFD tool for flooding forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, V.T.; Eberl, H.

2004-01-01

Every year, flooding does not only cause property damage of billions of dollars, but also threats to millions of human life around the world. The ability to accurately predict the extreme flooding in urban areas is of obvious importance in order to reduce flooding risks and to improve public safety. In this paper, a complete computational tool is presented that includes pre-processing, meshing, calculating and post-processing modules. The pre-processing procedure is used to interpolate the geometry of the river and floodplains where the data can not be obtained directly from measurements. The meshing procedure is implemented by a triangle mesh generator. The computational procedure is based on a Finite Element Method to discretize the two-dimensional depth-averaged equations for shallow water flow. The post-processing procedure, finally, is interfaced with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can serve as a tool for monitoring and as an early warning system. The numerical model is verified and calibrated through many practical projects of flood protection for rivers in Germany. The numerical results show a very good agreement with data from the field survey, as well as data from past flood events. Thus the numerical model can be used as an important tool for flood prediction. (author)

Winter flooding of California rice fields reduces immature populations of Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in the spring.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghaee, Mohammad-Amir; Godfrey, Larry D

2017-07-01

In California, rice fields are flooded over the winter months (November to March) to facilitate degradation of post-harvest rice straw and to provide temporary habitat for migratory waterfowl. Prior research showed that winter flood rice fields had fewer rice water weevil (Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus), larvae and pupae during the rice production season than fields that were left unflooded in the winter. A series of experiments were conducted to provide further support for these trends under controlled conditions and to find a mechanism for this phenomenon. Under winter flooded conditions there was a 50% reduction in populations of weevil immatures compared with the untreated control (no straw or winter flood). These same conditions corresponded to a 20% increase in the amount of silicon found in plant tissues in 2014 and a 39 to 90% decrease in methane production in the soil from 2013 to 2014, respectively. Evidence from previous field research and these controlled studies supports winter flooding as an appropriate tactic for controlling L. oryzophilus populations in the spring. However, the mechanism that would explain why winter flooding adversely affects L. oryzophilus immatures remains unclear. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Deciphering flood frequency curves from a coupled human-nature system perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Li, H. Y.; Abeshu, G. W.; Wang, W.; Ye, S.; Guo, J.; Bloeschl, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Most previous studies and applications in deriving or applying FFC are underpinned by the stationarity assumption. To examine the theoretical robustness of this basic assumption, we analyzed the observed FFCs at hundreds of catchments in the contiguous United States along the gradients of climate conditions and human influences. The shape of FFCs is described using three similarity indices: mean annual floods (MAF), coefficient of variance (CV), and a seasonality index defined using circular statistics. The characteristics of catchments are quantified with a small number of dimensionless indices, including particularly: 1) the climatic aridity index, AI, which is a measure of the competition between energy and water availability; 2) reservoir impact index, defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume. The linkages between these two sets of indices are then explored based on a combination of mathematical derivations of the Budyko formula, simple but physically based reservoir operation models, and other auxiliary data. It is found that the shape of FFCs shifts from arid to humid climate, and from periods with weak human influences to periods with strong influences. The seasonality of floods is found to be largely controlled by the synchronization between the seasonal cycles of precipitation and solar radiation in pristine catchments, but also by the reservoir regulation capacity in managed catchments. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in both natural and regulated river systems across various climate gradients.

An Assessment of Capacity, Gaps and Opportunities toward Building a Global Early Warning System for Flood Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.

2007-12-01

Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing

Increasing Maize Tolerance to Drought and Flood with Seed Coating Treatments

OpenAIRE

Bennett, Jacob E; Sanghi, Achint; Kingsly Ambrose, R. P.

2016-01-01

The lack of irrigation in regions prone to drought, and flooding due to high rainfall or lack of drainage affects seed viability and the subsequent germination and crop establishment. Seed treatment in the form of coatings shows promise as an effective method to preserve the viability of corn (Zea mays) seeds in drought and flood conditions. Chemical formulations may help improve the seed corn vigor under these stressed conditions. This study examined the efficacy of β-aminobutyric acid [BABA...

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

Flood Risk Management In Europe: European flood regulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hegger, D.L.T.; Bakker, M.H.; Green, C.; Driessen, Peter; Delvaux, B.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Suykens, C.; Beyers, J-C.; Deketelaere, K.; Doorn-Hoekveld, W. van; Dieperink, C.

2013-01-01

In Europe, water management is moving from flood defense to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. In this report, we will look at Directives and (non-)EU- initiatives in place to deal with flood risk in Europe indirectly

Technical note: River modelling to infer flood management framework

African Journals Online (AJOL)

River hydraulic models have successfully identified the weaknesses and areas for improvement with respect to flooding in the Sarawak River system, and can also be used to support decisions on flood management measures. Often, the big question is 'how'. This paper demonstrates a theoretical flood management ...

Citizen involvement in flood risk governance: flood groups and networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Twigger-Ross Clare

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past decade has been a policy shift withinUK flood risk management towards localism with an emphasis on communities taking ownership of flood risk. There is also an increased focus on resilience and, more specifically, on community resilience to flooding. This paper draws on research carried out for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs to evaluate the Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder (FRCP scheme in England. Resilience is conceptualised as multidimensional and linked to exisiting capacities within a community. Creating resilience to flooding is an ongoing process of adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future risks. This paper focusses on the development of formal and informal institutions to support improved flood risk management: institutional resilience capacity. It includes new institutions: e.g. flood groups, as well as activities that help to build inter- and intra- institutional resilience capacity e.g. community flood planning. The pathfinder scheme consisted of 13 projects across England led by local authorities aimed at developing community resilience to flood risk between 2013 – 2015. This paper discusses the nature and structure of flood groups, the process of their development, and the extent of their linkages with formal institutions, drawing out the barriers and facilitators to developing institutional resilience at the local level.

Decision support system emergency planning, creating evacuation strategies in the event of flooding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Windhouwer, C.J.; Klunder, G.A.; Sanders, F.M.

2005-01-01

The Decision Support System (DSS) Emergency Planning is designed for use in the event of sea or river flooding. It makes accessible all the information related to the decision whether to evacuate an area. An important factor in this decision is the time required for the evacuation. The model used by

Morphological records of storm floods exemplified by the impact of the 1872 Baltic storm on a sandy spit system in south-eastern Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clemmensen, Lars B; Bendixen, Mette; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

2014-01-01

Beach-ridge systems are important geo-archives providing evidence for past wave climate including catastrophic storm flood events. This study investigates the morphological impacts of the 1872 Baltic storm flood on a beach-ridge system (sandy spit) in south-eastern Denmark and evaluates the frequ...

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood Risk Management: Exploring the Impacts of the Community Rating System Program on Poverty and Income Inequality.

Science.gov (United States)

Noonan, Douglas S; Sadiq, Abdul-Akeem A

2018-03-01

Flooding remains a major problem for the United States, causing numerous deaths and damaging countless properties. To reduce the impact of flooding on communities, the U.S. government established the Community Rating System (CRS) in 1990 to reduce flood damages by incentivizing communities to engage in flood risk management initiatives that surpass those required by the National Flood Insurance Program. In return, communities enjoy discounted flood insurance premiums. Despite the fact that the CRS raises concerns about the potential for unevenly distributed impacts across different income groups, no study has examined the equity implications of the CRS. This study thus investigates the possibility of unintended consequences of the CRS by answering the question: What is the effect of the CRS on poverty and income inequality? Understanding the impacts of the CRS on poverty and income inequality is useful in fully assessing the unintended consequences of the CRS. The study estimates four fixed-effects regression models using a panel data set of neighborhood-level observations from 1970 to 2010. The results indicate that median incomes are lower in CRS communities, but rise in floodplains. Also, the CRS attracts poor residents, but relocates them away from floodplains. Additionally, the CRS attracts top earners, including in floodplains. Finally, the CRS encourages income inequality, but discourages income inequality in floodplains. A better understanding of these unintended consequences of the CRS on poverty and income inequality can help to improve the design and performance of the CRS and, ultimately, increase community resilience to flood disasters. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of detection techniques for monitoring and optimizing biocide dosing in seawater flooding systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Al-Moniee, M.A.; Al-Abeedi, F.N.; Koopal, C.G.J.; Akmal, N.; Sanders, P.F.; Veen, S. van

2013-01-01

Anaerobic microorganisms which are frequently associated with corrosion fail Control of bacterial activity are posing major challenge in Saudi Arabia's massive seawater flooding systems. Biocides are used to control bacteria throughout the oil industry. A study to explore the feasibility to develop

Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: An overview on concepts and performance of models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khairudin, Nurul; Gaydon, Donald S.; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P.; Struik, Paul C.; Keesman, Karel J.

2018-01-01

Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multi-disciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding

Chemical composition and antioxidant activity of geopropolis produced by Melipona fasciculata (Meliponinae) in flooded fields and cerrado areas of Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil

OpenAIRE

BATISTA,Marisa Cristina Aranha; ABREU,Bruno Vinicius de Barros; DUTRA,Richard Pereira; CUNHA,Mayara Soares; AMARAL,Flavia Maria Mendonça do; TORRES,Luce Maria Brandão; RIBEIRO,Maria Nilce de Sousa

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Geopropolis, a mixture of plant resin, wax, soil and salivary secretion, is produced by the stingless bee Melipona fasciculata. This aim of this study was to investigate the chemical composition and antioxidant activity of geopropolis collected from beehives in two phytogeographical regions, flooded fields and cerrado, in the municipalities of Palmeirândia and Fernando Falcão, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. The geopropolis compounds were identified by gas chromatography-mass sp...

LiDAR and IFSAR-Based Flood Inundation Model Estimates for Flood-Prone Areas of Afghanistan

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, W. C.; Goldade, M. M.; Kastens, J.; Dobbs, K. E.; Macpherson, G. L.

2014-12-01

Extreme flood events are not unusual in semi-arid to hyper-arid regions of the world, and Afghanistan is no exception. Recent flashfloods and flashflood-induced landslides took nearly 100 lives and destroyed or damaged nearly 2000 homes in 12 villages within Guzargah-e-Nur district of Baghlan province in northeastern Afghanistan. With available satellite imagery, flood-water inundation estimation can be accomplished remotely, thereby providing a means to reduce the impact of such flood events by improving shared situational awareness during major flood events. Satellite orbital considerations, weather, cost, data licensing restrictions, and other issues can often complicate the acquisition of appropriately timed imagery. Given the need for tools to supplement imagery where not available, complement imagery when it is available, and bridge the gap between imagery based flood mapping and traditional hydrodynamic modeling approaches, we have developed a topographic floodplain model (FLDPLN), which has been used to identify and map river valley floodplains with elevation data ranging from 90-m SRTM to 1-m LiDAR. Floodplain "depth to flood" (DTF) databases generated by FLDPLN are completely seamless and modular. FLDPLN has been applied in Afghanistan to flood-prone areas along the northern and southern flanks of the Hindu Kush mountain range to generate a continuum of 1-m increment flood-event models up to 10 m in depth. Elevation data used in this application of FLDPLN included high-resolution, drone-acquired LiDAR (~1 m) and IFSAR (5 m; INTERMAP). Validation of the model has been accomplished using the best available satellite-derived flood inundation maps, such as those issued by Unitar's Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). Results provide a quantitative approach to evaluating the potential risk to urban/village infrastructure as well as to irrigation systems, agricultural fields and archaeological sites.

Proteins involved in biophoton emission and flooding-stress responses in soybean under light and dark conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamal, Abu Hena Mostafa; Komatsu, Setsuko

2016-02-01

To know the molecular systems basically flooding conditions in soybean, biophoton emission measurements and proteomic analyses were carried out for flooding-stressed roots under light and dark conditions. Photon emission was analyzed using a photon counter. Gel-free quantitative proteomics were performed to identify significant changes proteins using the nano LC-MS along with SIEVE software. Biophoton emissions were significantly increased in both light and dark conditions after flooding stress, but gradually decreased with continued flooding exposure compared to the control plants. Among the 120 significantly identified proteins in the roots of soybean plants, 73 and 19 proteins were decreased and increased in the light condition, respectively, and 4 and 24 proteins were increased and decreased, respectively, in the dark condition. The proteins were mainly functionally grouped into cell organization, protein degradation/synthesis, and glycolysis. The highly abundant lactate/malate dehydrogenase proteins were decreased in flooding-stressed roots exposed to light, whereas the lysine ketoglutarate reductase/saccharopine dehydrogenase bifunctional enzyme was increased in both light and dark conditions. Notably, however, specific enzyme assays revealed that the activities of these enzymes and biophoton emission were sharply increased after 3 days of flooding stress. This finding suggests that the source of biophoton emission in roots might involve the chemical excitation of electron or proton through enzymatic or non-enzymatic oxidation and reduction reactions. Moreover, the lysine ketoglutarate reductase/saccharopine dehydrogenase bifunctional enzyme may play important roles in responses in flooding stress of soybean under the light condition and as a contributing factor to biophoton emission.

Investigation of Flood Risk Assessment in Inaccessible Regions using Multiple Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, J.; Lee, K. S.

2017-12-01

Flooding is extremely dangerous when a river overflows to inundate an urban area. From 1995 to 2016, North Korea (NK) experienced annual extensive damage to life and property almost each year due to a levee breach resulting from typhoons and heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon season. Recently, Hoeryeong City (2016) experienced heavy rainfall during typhoon Lionrock and the resulting flood killed and injured many people (68,900) and destroyed numerous buildings and settlements (11,600). The NK state media described it as the biggest national disaster since 1945. Thus, almost all annual repeat occurrences of floods in NK have had a serious impact, which makes it necessary to figure out the extent of floods in restoring the damaged environment. In addition, traditional hydrological model is impractical to delineate Flood Damaged Areas (FDAs) in NK due to the inaccessibility. Under such a situation, multiple optical Remote Sensing (RS) and radar RS along with a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis were utilized in this study (1) to develop modelling FDA delineation using multiple RS and GIS methods and (2) to conduct flood risk assessment in NK. Interpreting high-resolution web-based satellite imagery were also implemented to confirm the results of the study. From the study result, it was found that (1) on August 30th, 2016, an area of 117.2 km2 (8.6%) at Hoeryeong City was inundated. Most floods occurred in flat areas with a lower and middle stream order. (2) In the binary logistic regression model applied in this study, the distance from the nearest stream map and landform map variables are important factors to delineate FDAs because these two factors reflect heterogeneous mountainous NK topography. (3) Total annual flood risk of study area is estimated to be ₩454.13 million NKW ($504,417.24 USD, and ₩576.53 million SKW). The risk of the confluence of the Tumen River and Hoeryeong stream appears to be the highest. (4) High resolution

A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. L. V. Martina

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyses using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.

Flood-rich and flood-poor periods in Spain in 1942-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2016-04-01

Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Mediero et al. (2015) studied flood trends by using the longest streamflow records available in Europe. They found a decreasing trend in the Atlantic, Continental and Scandinavian regions. More specifically, Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in Spain in the period 1959-2009. Trends in flood series are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test applied to a given period. However, the result of the Mann-Kendall test can change in terms of the starting and ending year of the series. Flood oscillations can occur and flood-rich and flood-poor periods could condition the results, especially when they are located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to the longest series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. A flood-rich period in 1950-1970 and a flood-poor period in 1970-1990 are identified in most of the selected sites. The generalised decreasing trend in flood series found by Mediero et al. (2014) could be explained by a flood-rich period placed at the beginning of the series and a flood-poor period located at the end of the series. References: Mediero, L., Kjeldsen, T.R., Macdonald, N., Kohnova, S., Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Wilson, D., Alburquerque, T., Blöschl, G., Bogdanowicz, E., Castellarin, A., Hall, J., Kobold, M., Kriauciuniene, J., Lang, M., Madsen, H., Onuşluel Gül, G., Perdigão, R.A.P., Roald, L.A., Salinas, J.L., Toumazis, A.D., Veijalainen, N., Óðinn Þórarinsson. Identification of coherent flood

Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

Science.gov (United States)

Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

2017-04-01

Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

Science.gov (United States)

Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

2015-04-01

Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK

Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

2015-10-01

This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

Science.gov (United States)

Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

2014-04-15

Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flooding of the root system in soybean: biochemical and molecular aspects of N metabolism in the nodule during stress and recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, Sarah C R; Mazzafera, Paulo; Sodek, Ladaslav

2016-05-01

Nitrogen fixation of the nodule of soybean is highly sensitive to oxygen deficiency such as provoked by waterlogging of the root system. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of flooding on N metabolism in nodules of soybean. Flooding resulted in a marked decrease of asparagine (the most abundant amino acid) and a concomitant accumulation of γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA). Flooding also resulted in a strong reduction of the incorporation of (15)N2 in amino acids. Nodule amino acids labelled before flooding rapidly lost (15)N during flooding, except for GABA, which initially increased and declined slowly thereafter. Both nitrogenase activity and the expression of nifH and nifD genes were strongly decreased on flooding. Expression of the asparagine synthetase genes SAS1 and SAS2 was reduced, especially the former. Expression of genes encoding the enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD1, GAD4, GAD5) was also strongly suppressed except for GAD2 which increased. Almost all changes observed during flooding were reversible after draining. Possible changes in asparagine and GABA metabolism that may explain the marked fluctuations of these amino acids during flooding are discussed. It is suggested that the accumulation of GABA has a storage role during flooding stress.

FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN BODVA RIVER BASIN IN SLOVAKIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ZELENAKOVA MARTINA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to generate a composite map for decision makers using selected factors, mainly of natural character, causing floods. In the analyses, some of the causative factors for flooding in a catchment area are taken into account, such as soil type, precipitation, land use, size of catchment and basin slope. A case study of flood vulnerability identification in the Bodva river basin in eastern Slovakia is employed to illustrate the different approaches. A geographical information system (GIS is integrated with multicriteria analysis (MCA in the paper. The identification of flood vulnerability consists of two basic phases. Firstly, the effective factors causing floods are identified. Secondly several approaches to MCA in a GIS environment are applied and these approaches are evaluated in order to prepared flood vulnerability map.

Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

2012-12-01

Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

A Location Intelligence System for the Assessment of Pluvial Flooding Risk and the Identification of Storm Water Pollutant Sources from Roads in Suburbanised Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szymon Szewrański

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The interplay of an ever-growing number of inhabitants, sprawl development, soil sealing, changes in urban traffic characteristics, as well as observed climate trends gives rise to more frequent pluvial flooding in cities, a higher run-off of water, and an increasing pollution of surface water. The aim of this research is to develop a location intelligence system for the assessment of pluvial flooding risks and the identification of storm water pollutant sources from roads in newly-developed areas. The system combines geographic information systems and business intelligence software, and it is based on the original Pluvial Flood Risk Assessment tool. The location intelligence system effectively identifies the spatial and temporal distribution of pluvial flood risks, allows to preliminarily evaluate the total run-off from roads, and helps localise potential places for new water management infrastructure. Further improvements concern the modelling of a flow accumulation and drainage system, the application of weather radar precipitation data, and traffic monitoring and modelling.

Floods in a changing climate: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, J C R

2002-07-15

This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.

Unexpected flood loss correlations across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, Naomi; Boyd, Jessica

2017-04-01

Floods don't observe country borders, as highlighted by major events across Europe that resulted in heavy economic and insured losses in 1999, 2002, 2009 and 2013. Flood loss correlations between some countries occur along multi-country river systems or between neighbouring nations affected by the same weather systems. However, correlations are not so obvious and whilst flooding in multiple locations across Europe may appear independent, for a re/insurer providing cover across the continent, these unexpected correlations can lead to high loss accumulations. A consistent, continental-scale method that allows quantification and comparison of losses, and identifies correlations in loss between European countries is therefore essential. A probabilistic model for European river flooding was developed that allows estimation of potential losses to pan-European property portfolios. By combining flood hazard and exposure information in a catastrophe modelling platform, we can consider correlations between river basins across Europe rather than being restricted to country boundaries. A key feature of the model is its statistical event set based on extreme value theory. Using historical river flow data, the event set captures spatial and temporal patterns of flooding across Europe and simulates thousands of events representing a full range of possible scenarios. Some known correlations were identified, such as between neighbouring Belgium and Luxembourg where 28% of events that affect either country produce a loss in both. However, our model identified some unexpected correlations including between Austria and Poland, and Poland and France, which are geographically distant. These correlations in flood loss may be missed by traditional methods and are key for re/insurers with risks in multiple countries. The model also identified that 46% of European river flood events affect more than one country. For more extreme events with a return period higher than 200 years, all events

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

Science.gov (United States)

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital

Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

Science.gov (United States)

Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

2016-04-01

Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

Methane Exchange in a Coastal Fen in the First Year after Flooding - A Systems Shift

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Juliane; Köhler, Stefan; Glatzel, Stephan; Jurasinski, Gerald

2015-01-01

Background Peatland restoration can have several objectives, for example re-establishing the natural habitat, supporting unique biodiversity attributes or re-initiating key biogeochemical processes, which can ultimately lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Every restoration measure, however, is itself a disturbance to the ecosystem. Methods Here, we examine an ecosystem shift in a coastal fen at the southern Baltic Sea which was rewetted by flooding. The analyses are based on one year of bi-weekly closed chamber measurements of methane fluxes gathered at spots located in different vegetation stands. During measurement campaigns, we recorded data on water levels, peat temperatures, and chemical properties of peat water. In addition we analyzed the first 20 cm of peat before and after flooding for dry bulk density (DBD), content of organic matter and total amounts of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), sulfur (S), and other nutrients. Results Rewetting turned the site from a summer dry fen into a shallow lake with water levels up to 0.60 m. We observed a substantial die-back of vegetation, especially in stands of sedges (Carex acutiformis Ehrh). Concentrations of total organic carbon and nitrogen in the peat water, as well as dry bulk density and concentrations of C, N and S in the peat increased. In the first year after rewetting, the average annual exchange of methane amounted to 0.26 ± 0.06 kg m-2. This is equivalent to a 190-times increase in methane compared to pre-flooding conditions. Highest methane fluxes occurred in sedge stands which suffered from the heaviest die-back. None of the recorded environmental variables showed consistent relationships with the amounts of methane exchanged. Conclusions Our results suggest that rewetting projects should be monitored not only with regard to vegetation development but also with respect to biogeochemical conditions. Further, high methane emissions that likely occur directly after rewetting by flooding should

Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2017-01-01

The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from

Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2017-01-01

The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, creates a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. This research focussed on creating flood maps using user generated content from Twitter. Twitter data has

ICMPv6 RA Flooding Vulnerability Research

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linas Jočys

2016-06-01

Full Text Available ICMPv6 is the newest version of internet control message protocol, whose main purpose is to send error message indicating packet processing failure. It is know that ICMPv6 is technologically vulnerable. One of those vulnerabilities is the ICMPv6 RA flooding vulnerability, which can lead to systems in Local Area Network slow down or full stop. This paper will discuss Windows (XP, 7, 8.1 and Linux Ubuntu 14 operating systems resistance to RA flooding attack research and countermeasures to minimize this vulnerability.

Introduction to the Chemical Management System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawyer, J.G.

1993-01-01

The CMS, a Laboratory-wide electronic chemical inventory tracking system, will assist PNL by establishing comprehensive, integrated, Laboratory-wide databases supported by consistent and standardized procedures for chemical inventory management. It will provide PNL with the information needed to meet its current chemical management responsibilities and regulatory requirements. Its objectives are to provide an inventory of all chemicals being held at PNL facilities, to provide a specific location for all chemical containers, to ensure that health and safety regulatory codes are being upheld, and to provide PNL staff and managers with hazardous-chemical information for better inventory management. It is composed of 5 modules: chemical purchasing; chemical inventory; chemical names, properties, and hazardous groups; reporting; and system manager

Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

2018-03-01

This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

Hazardous chemical tracking system (HAZ-TRAC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bramlette, J.D.; Ewart, S.M.; Jones, C.E.

1990-07-01

Westinghouse Idaho Nuclear Company, Inc. (WINCO) developed and implemented a computerized hazardous chemical tracking system, referred to as Haz-Trac, for use at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). Haz-Trac is designed to provide a means to improve the accuracy and reliability of chemical information, which enhances the overall quality and safety of ICPP operations. The system tracks all chemicals and chemical components from the time they enter the ICPP until the chemical changes form, is used, or becomes a waste. The system runs on a Hewlett-Packard (HP) 3000 Series 70 computer. The system is written in COBOL and uses VIEW/3000, TurboIMAGE/DBMS 3000, OMNIDEX, and SPEEDWARE. The HP 3000 may be accessed throughout the ICPP, and from remote locations, using data communication lines. Haz-Trac went into production in October, 1989. Currently, over 1910 chemicals and chemical components are tracked on the system. More than 2500 personnel hours were saved during the first six months of operation. Cost savings have been realized by reducing the time needed to collect and compile reporting information, identifying and disposing of unneeded chemicals, and eliminating duplicate inventories. Haz-Trac maintains information required by the Superfund Amendment Reauthorization Act (SARA), the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)

Hazardous chemical tracking system (HAZ-TRAC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bramlette, J D; Ewart, S M; Jones, C E

1990-07-01

Westinghouse Idaho Nuclear Company, Inc. (WINCO) developed and implemented a computerized hazardous chemical tracking system, referred to as Haz-Trac, for use at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). Haz-Trac is designed to provide a means to improve the accuracy and reliability of chemical information, which enhances the overall quality and safety of ICPP operations. The system tracks all chemicals and chemical components from the time they enter the ICPP until the chemical changes form, is used, or becomes a waste. The system runs on a Hewlett-Packard (HP) 3000 Series 70 computer. The system is written in COBOL and uses VIEW/3000, TurboIMAGE/DBMS 3000, OMNIDEX, and SPEEDWARE. The HP 3000 may be accessed throughout the ICPP, and from remote locations, using data communication lines. Haz-Trac went into production in October, 1989. Currently, over 1910 chemicals and chemical components are tracked on the system. More than 2500 personnel hours were saved during the first six months of operation. Cost savings have been realized by reducing the time needed to collect and compile reporting information, identifying and disposing of unneeded chemicals, and eliminating duplicate inventories. Haz-Trac maintains information required by the Superfund Amendment Reauthorization Act (SARA), the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA).

Metabolism of 14C-lindane in flooded alluvial soil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddaramappa, R.; Sethunathan, N.

1975-01-01

The effect of rice straw on the persistence of uniformly ring labelled 14 C-lindane in an alluvial soil was investigated under flooded conditions. The residues in the soil were extracted with chloroform-diethyl ether and the radioactivity was measured by liquid scintillation. The radioactivity in the solvent phase decreased more rapidly in amended soil than in unamended soil. Radioautograph of thin layer chromatograms of solvent phase indicated that lindane was readily converted to a breakdown product in both amended and unamended soils. This breakdown product was also formed in both autoclaved and nonautoclaved soils. Rice straw amendment enhanced further decomposition of lindane and its breakdown product. Heat treatment retarded further decomposition of lindane and its breakdown product whereas they were rapidly decomposed in nonautoclaved soil. These studies indicated that in flooded alluvial soil tested, lindane was initially decomposed by a chemical reaction and soil microorganisms appeared to attack the products of the chemical reaction. (author)

Hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecasting constrained by remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Grimaldi, S.; Pauwels, V. R. N.; Walker, J. P.; Wright, A. J.

2017-12-01

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural disasters, resulting in many deaths and billions of dollars of damages each year. An indispensable tool to mitigate the effect of floods is to provide accurate and timely forecasts. An operational flood forecasting system typically consists of a hydrologic model, converting rainfall data into flood volumes entering the river system, and a hydraulic model, converting these flood volumes into water levels and flood extents. Such a system is prone to various sources of uncertainties from the initial conditions, meteorological forcing, topographic data, model parameters and model structure. To reduce those uncertainties, current forecasting systems are typically calibrated and/or updated using ground-based streamflow measurements, and such applications are limited to well-gauged areas. The recent increasing availability of spatially distributed remote sensing (RS) data offers new opportunities to improve flood forecasting skill. Based on an Australian case study, this presentation will discuss the use of 1) RS soil moisture to constrain a hydrologic model, and 2) RS flood extent and level to constrain a hydraulic model.The GRKAL hydrological model is calibrated through a joint calibration scheme using both ground-based streamflow and RS soil moisture observations. A lag-aware data assimilation approach is tested through a set of synthetic experiments to integrate RS soil moisture to constrain the streamflow forecasting in real-time.The hydraulic model is LISFLOOD-FP which solves the 2-dimensional inertial approximation of the Shallow Water Equations. Gauged water level time series and RS-derived flood extent and levels are used to apply a multi-objective calibration protocol. The effectiveness with which each data source or combination of data sources constrained the parameter space will be discussed.

Flood Label for buildings : a tool for more flood-resilient cities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartmann, T.; Scheibel, Marc

2016-01-01

River floods are among the most expensive natural disasters in Europe. Traditional flood protection methods are not sufficient anymore. It is widely acknowledged in the scholarly debate and in practice of flood risk management that traditional flood protection measures such as dikes need to be

Pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system: an adventure game!

Science.gov (United States)

Arnal, Louise; Pappenberger, Florian; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Crochemore, Louise; Giuliani, Matteo; Aalbers, Emma

2017-04-01

In the design and building of an operational flood forecasting system, a large number of decisions have to be taken. These include technical decisions related to the choice of the meteorological forecasts to be used as input to the hydrological model, the choice of the hydrological model itself (its structure and parameters), the selection of a data assimilation procedure to run in real-time, the use (or not) of a post-processor, and the computing environment to run the models and display the outputs. Additionally, a number of trans-disciplinary decisions are also involved in the process, such as the way the needs of the users will be considered in the modelling setup and how the forecasts (and their quality) will be efficiently communicated to ensure usefulness and build confidence in the forecasting system. We propose to reflect on the numerous, alternative pathways to designing and running an operational flood forecasting system through an adventure game. In this game, the player is the protagonist of an interactive story driven by challenges, exploration and problem-solving. For this presentation, you will have a chance to play this game, acting as the leader of a forecasting team at an operational centre. Your role is to manage the actions of your team and make sequential decisions that impact the design and running of the system in preparation to and during a flood event, and that deal with the consequences of the forecasts issued. Your actions are evaluated by how much they cost you in time, money and credibility. Your aim is to take decisions that will ultimately lead to a good balance between time and money spent, while keeping your credibility high over the whole process. This game was designed to highlight the complexities behind decision-making in an operational forecasting and emergency response context, in terms of the variety of pathways that can be selected as well as the timescale, cost and timing of effective actions.

Realistic modelling of external flooding scenarios - A multi-disciplinary approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brinkman, J.L.

2014-01-01

Extreme phenomena, such as storm surges or high river water levels, may endanger the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) by inundation of the plant site with subsequent damage on safety-related buildings. Flooding may result in simultaneous failures of safety-related components, such as service water pumps and electrical equipment. In addition, the accessibility of the plant may be impeded due to flooding of the plant environment. These consequences are so severe that, (re)assessments of flood risk and flood protection measures should be based on accurate state-of-the-art methods. Dutch nuclear regulations require that a nuclear power plant shall withstand all external initiating events with a return period lower than one million years. For external flooding, this requirement is the basis of the so-called nuclear design level (nucleair ontwerp peil, NOP) of the buildings for external flooding, i.e. the water level at which a system - among others, the nuclear island and the ultimate heat sink - should still function properly. In determining the NOP, the mean water level, wave height and wave behaviour during storm surges are taken into account. This concept could also be used to implement external flooding in a PSA, by assuming that floods exceeding NOP levels directly lead to core damage. However, this straightforward modelling ignores some important aspects: the first is the mitigating effect of the external flood protection as dikes or dunes; the second aspect is that although water levels lower than NOP will not directly lead to core damage, they could do so indirectly as a result of combinations of system loss by flooding and random failure of required safety systems that have to bring the plant in a safe, stable state. Time is a third aspect: failure mechanisms need time to develop and time (via duration of the flood) determines the amount of water on site. This paper describes a PSA approach that takes the (structural) reliability of the external defences

Flooding in imagination vs flooding in vivo: A comparison with agoraphobics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Emmelkamp, Paul M.G.; Wessels, Hemmy

In this investigation of agoraphobic patients, 3 different flooding procedures were compared: (1) prolonged exposure in vivo, (2) flooding in the imagination by a ‘live’ therapist and (3) a combination of flooding in the imagination and flooding in vivo. After an intermediate-test all clients were

Urban flooding and Resilience: concepts and needs

Science.gov (United States)

Gourbesville, Ph.

2012-04-01

During the recent years, a growing interest for resilience has been expressed in the natural disaster mitigation area and especially in the flood related events. The European Union, under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), has initiated several research initiatives in order to explore this concept especially for the urban environments. Under urban resilience is underlined the ability of system potentially exposed to hazard to resist, respond, recover and reflect up to stage which is enough to preserve level of functioning and structure. Urban system can be resilient to lot of different hazards. Urban resilience is defined as the degree to which cities are able to tolerate some disturbance before reorganizing around a new set of structures and processes (Holling 1973, De Bruijn 2005). The United Nation's International strategy for Disaster Reductions has defined resilience as "the capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure. This is determined by the degree to which the social system is capable of organizing itself to increase this capacity for learning from past disasters for better future protection and to improve risk reduction measures."(UN/ISDR 2004). According to that, system should be able to accept the hazard and be able to recover up to condition that provides acceptable operational level of city structure and population during and after hazard event. Main elements of urban system are built environment and population. Physical characteristic of built environment and social characteristic of population have to be examined in order to evaluate resilience. Therefore presenting methodology for assessing flood resilience in urban areas has to be one of the focal points for the exposed cities. Strategies under flood management planning related to resilience of urban systems are usually regarding controlling runoff

Introduction to flood control science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Dong U; Ha, Jin Uk; Kim, Dong Ha; Shin, Hong Ryeol; Song, Seok Hwan; Kim, Jin Gyu; Moon, Heon Cheol

2003-01-01

This book covers introduction, industrialization disaster such as Bhopal and Chernobyl disaster, earthquake disaster, volcano disaster, avalanche disaster including loss allocation and prevention measures, and natural fire by showing California, Yellowstone park and similarity between fire and flood. It also introduces climate change and disaster, Earth's greenhouse effect and disaster due to current sea level rise, flood damage, drought disaster, famine and drought, prediction of drought, population problems, outlook of world population, and disaster prevention administration system of Korea.

Prepared to react? Assessing the functional capacity of the primary health care system in rural Orissa, India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Marx

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Early detection of an impending flood and the availability of countermeasures to deal with it can significantly reduce its health impacts. In developing countries like India, public primary health care facilities are frontline organizations that deal with disasters particularly in rural settings. For developing robust counter reacting systems evaluating preparedness capacities within existing systems becomes necessary. Objective: The objective of the study is to assess the functional capacity of the primary health care system in Jagatsinghpur district of rural Orissa in India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008. Methods: An onsite survey was conducted in all 29 primary and secondary facilities in five rural blocks (administrative units of Jagatsinghpur district in Orissa state. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was administered face to face in the facilities. The data was entered, processed and analyzed using STATA® 10. Results: Data from our primary survey clearly shows that the healthcare facilities are ill prepared to handle the flood despite being faced by them annually. Basic utilities like electricity backup and essential medical supplies are lacking during floods. Lack of human resources along with missing standard operating procedures; pre-identified communication and incident command systems; effective leadership; and weak financial structures are the main hindering factors in mounting an adequate response to the floods. Conclusion: The 2008 flood challenged the primary curative and preventive health care services in Jagatsinghpur. Simple steps like developing facility specific preparedness plans which detail out standard operating procedures during floods and identify clear lines of command will go a long way in strengthening the response to future floods. Performance critiques provided by the grass roots workers, like this one, should be used for institutional learning and effective preparedness

Identification and classification of Serbia's historic floods

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Prohaska Stevan

2009-01-01

Full Text Available River flooding in Serbia is a natural phenomenon which largely exceeds the scope of water management and hydraulic engineering, and has considerable impact on the development of Serbian society. Today, the importance and value of areas threatened by floods are among the key considerations of sustainable development. As a result, flood protection techniques and procedures need to be continually refined and updated, following innovations in the fields of science and technology. Knowledge of high flows is key for sizing hydraulic structures and for gauging the cost-effectiveness and safety of the component structures of flood protection systems. However, sizing of hydraulic structures based on computed high flows does not ensure absolute safety; there is a residual flood risk and a risk of structural failure, if a flood exceeds computed levels. In hydrological practice, such floods are often referred to as historic/loads. The goal of this paper is to present a calculation procedure for the objective identification of historic floods, using long, multiple-year series of data on high flows of natural watercourses in Serbia. At its current stage of development, the calculation procedure is based on maximum annual discharges recorded at key monitoring stations of the Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (HMS Serbia. When applied, the procedure results in the identification of specific historic maximum stages/floods (if any at all gauge sites included in the analysis. The probabilistic theory is then applied to assess the statistical significance of each identified historic flood and to classify the historic flood, as appropriate. At the end of the paper, the results of the applied methodology are shown in tabular and graphic form for various Serbian rivers. All identified historic floods are ranked based on their probability of occurrence (i.e., return period.

Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

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Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo

2010-11-01

Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

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Muhammad Aris Marfai

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

Flooding and Schools

Science.gov (United States)

National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

2011-01-01

According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

Investigating flood susceptible areas in inaccessible regions using remote sensing and geographic information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Joongbin; Lee, Kyoo-Seock

2017-03-01

Every summer, North Korea (NK) suffers from floods, resulting in decreased agricultural production and huge economic loss. Besides meteorological reasons, several factors can accelerate flood damage. Environmental studies about NK are difficult because NK is inaccessible due to the division of Korea. Remote sensing (RS) can be used to delineate flood inundated areas in inaccessible regions such as NK. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial characteristics of flood susceptible areas (FSAs) using multi-temporal RS data and digital elevation model data. Such study will provide basic information to restore FSAs after reunification. Defining FSAs at the study site revealed that rice paddies with low elevation and low slope were the most susceptible areas to flood in NK. Numerous sediments from upper streams, especially streams through crop field areas on steeply sloped hills, might have been transported and deposited into stream channels, thus disturbing water flow. In conclusion, NK floods may have occurred not only due to meteorological factors but also due to inappropriate land use for flood management. In order to mitigate NK flood damage, reforestation is needed for terraced crop fields. In addition, drainage capacity for middle stream channel near rice paddies should be improved.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Effect of Urban Green Spaces and Flooded Area Type on Flooding Probability

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Hyomin Kim

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Countermeasures to urban flooding should consider long-term perspectives, because climate change impacts are unpredictable and complex. Urban green spaces have emerged as a potential option to reduce urban flood risks, and their effectiveness has been highlighted in notable urban water management studies. In this study, flooded areas in Seoul, Korea, were divided into four flooded area types by cluster analysis based on topographic and physical characteristics and verified using discriminant analysis. After division by flooded area type, logistic regression analysis was performed to determine how the flooding probability changes with variations in green space area. Type 1 included regions where flooding occurred in a drainage basin that had a flood risk management infrastructure (FRMI. In Type 2, the slope was steep; the TWI (Topographic Wetness Index was relatively low; and soil drainage was favorable. Type 3 represented the gentlest sloping areas, and these were associated with the highest TWI values. In addition, these areas had the worst soil drainage. Type 4 had moderate slopes, imperfect soil drainage and lower than average TWI values. We found that green spaces exerted a considerable influence on urban flooding probabilities in Seoul, and flooding probabilities could be reduced by over 50% depending on the green space area and the locations where green spaces were introduced. Increasing the area of green spaces was the most effective method of decreasing flooding probability in Type 3 areas. In Type 2 areas, the maximum hourly precipitation affected the flooding probability significantly, and the flooding probability in these areas was high despite the extensive green space area. These findings can contribute towards establishing guidelines for urban spatial planning to respond to urban flooding.

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

Simulating Catchment Scale Afforestation for Mitigating Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, M. S.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.; Birkinshaw, S.

2016-12-01

After the 2013-14, and the more recent 2015-16, winter floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management practice remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. This project aims to improve the understanding of the impacts of upland afforestation on flood risk at the sub-catchment and full catchment scales. This will be achieved through an integrated fieldwork and modelling approach, with the use of a series of process based hydrological models to scale up and examine the effects forestry can have on flooding. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, catchment system engineering and the installation of runoff attenuation features (RAFs), such as engineered log jams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. Additionally, the proportion of a catchment or riparian reach that would need to be forested in order to achieve a significant impact on reducing downstream flooding will be defined. The consequential impacts of a corresponding reduction in agriculturally productive farmland and the potential decline of water resource availability will also be considered in order to safeguard the UK's food security and satisfy the global demand on water resources.

Effects of changes along the risk chain on flood risk

Science.gov (United States)

Duha Metin, Ayse; Apel, Heiko; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Interactions of hydrological and socio-economic factors shape flood disaster risk. For this reason, assessment of flood risk ideally takes into account the whole flood risk chain from atmospheric processes, through the catchment and river system processes to the damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Since very different processes at various scales are interacting along the flood risk, the impact of the single components is rather unclear. However for flood risk management, it is required to know the controlling factor of flood damages. The present study, using the flood-prone Mulde catchment in Germany, discusses the sensitivity of flood risk to disturbances along the risk chain: How do disturbances propagate through the risk chain? How do different disturbances combine or conflict and affect flood risk? In this sensitivity analysis, the five components of the flood risk change are included. These are climate, catchment, river system, exposure and vulnerability. A model framework representing the complete risk chain is combined with observational data to understand how the sensitivities evolve along the risk chain by considering three plausible change scenarios for each of five components. The flood risk is calculated by using the Regional Flood Model (RFM) which is based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, 1D river network, 2D hinterland inundation and damage estimation models. The sensitivity analysis covers more than 240 scenarios with different combinations of the five components. It is investigated how changes in different components affect risk indicators, such as the risk curve and expected annual damage (EAD). In conclusion, it seems that changes in exposure and vulnerability seem to outweigh changes in hazard.

Controlling flooding and water pollution with upland and streamside vegetation systems

Science.gov (United States)

Michael Dosskey

2003-01-01

Substantial research and development effort in the U.S. is being spent on developing strategies that address flooding and water pollution problems in agricultural areas. Concerns have been raised about the costs of flood damage, degradation of productive farm land, and declining water quality that are now recognized as unintended consequences of intensive, high-yield...

Scales of Natural Flood Management

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; Hetherington, David; Piedra Lara, Miguel; O'Donnell, Greg

2016-04-01

The scientific field of Natural flood Management (NFM) is receiving much attention and is now widely seen as a valid solution to sustainably manage flood risk whilst offering significant multiple benefits. However, few examples exist looking at NFM on a large scale (>10km2). Well-implemented NFM has the effect of restoring more natural catchment hydrological and sedimentological processes, which in turn can have significant flood risk and WFD benefits for catchment waterbodies. These catchment scale improvements in-turn allow more 'natural' processes to be returned to rivers and streams, creating a more resilient system. Although certain NFM interventions may appear distant and disconnected from main stem waterbodies, they will undoubtedly be contributing to WFD at the catchment waterbody scale. This paper offers examples of NFM, and explains how they can be maximised through practical design across many scales (from feature up to the whole catchment). New tools to assist in the selection of measures and their location, and to appreciate firstly, the flooding benefit at the local catchment scale and then show a Flood Impact Model that can best reflect the impacts of local changes further downstream. The tools will be discussed in the context of our most recent experiences on NFM projects including river catchments in the north east of England and in Scotland. This work has encouraged a more integrated approach to flood management planning that can use both traditional and novel NFM strategies in an effective and convincing way.

A Socio-hydrological Flood Model for the Elbe

Science.gov (United States)

Barendrecht, M.; Viglione, A.; Kreibich, H.; Vorogushyn, S.; Merz, B.; Bloeschl, G.

2017-12-01

Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Dynamic coupled human-flood models are a promising tool to represent such phenomena and the feedbacks leading to them. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management when they are applied to real world case studies. They can help develop hypotheses about the phenomena that have been observed in the case study of interest, by describing the interactions between the social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, that play a role in the system. We discuss the case of Dresden where the 2002 flood, which was preceded by a period without floods but was less severe, resulted in a higher damage than the 2013 flood, which was preceded by the 2002 flood and a couple of less severe floods. The lower damage in 2013 may be explained by the fact that society has become aware of the flood risk and has adapted to it. Developing and applying a socio-hydrological flood model to the case of Dresden can help discover whether it is possible that the lower damage is caused by an adaptation effect, or if there are other feedbacks that can explain the observed phenomenon.

The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Toonen, W.H.J.; Middelkoop, H.; Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.; Macklin, M.G.; Cohen, K.M.

Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk

Flood risk control of dams and dykes in middle reach of Huaihe River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhen-kun MA

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that (1 the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; (2 considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and (3 under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.

Spatio-temporal variation of fish taxonomic composition in a South-East Asian flood-pulse system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kong, Heng; Chevalier, Mathieu; Laffaille, Pascal; Lek, Sovan

2017-01-01

The Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) is a flood-pulse system. It is the largest natural lake in South-East Asia and constitutes one of the largest fisheries over the world, supporting the livelihood of million peoples. Nonetheless, the Mekong River Basin is changing rapidly due to accelerating water infrastructure development (hydropower, irrigation, flood control, and water supply) and climate change, bringing considerable modifications to the annual flood-pulse of the TSL. Such modifications are expected to have strong impacts on fish biodiversity and abundance. This paper aims to characterize the spatio-temporal variations of fish taxonomic composition and to highlights the underlying determinants of these variations. For this purpose, we used data collected from a community catch monitoring program conducted at six sites during 141 weeks, covering two full hydrological cycles. For each week, we estimated beta diversity as the total variance of the site-by-species community matrix and partitioned it into Local Contribution to Beta Diversity (LCBD) and Species Contribution to Beta Diversity (SCBD). We then performed multiple linear regressions to determine whether species richness, species abundances and water level explained the temporal variation in the contribution of site and species to beta diversity. Our results indicate strong temporal variation of beta diversity due to differential contributions of sites and species to the spatial variation of fish taxonomic composition. We further found that the direction, the shape and the relative effect of species richness, abundances and water level on temporal variation in LCBD and SCBD values greatly varied among sites, thus suggesting spatial variation in the processes leading to temporal variation in community composition. Overall, our results suggest that fish taxonomic composition is not homogeneously distributed over space and time and is likely to be impacted in the future if the flood-pulse dynamic of the system is

Model of Ciliwung River Flood Diversion Tunnel Using HEC-RAS Software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nugroho Joko

2018-01-01

Full Text Available As a coastal city which lies in lowland area, Jakarta is prone to flooding. One major river which flow through Jakarta is Ciliwung River. There are alternatives to reduce flood risk, such as: river capacity improvement, existing natural reservoir and polder system improvement, upstream reservoir construction, city drainage improvement, flood channel construction and flood diversion. This paper presents capacity analysis of a proposed flood diversion of Ciliwung River to Cipinang River. Cipinang River has its downstream end at Eastern Flood Canal (Kanal Banjir Timur, KBT. This diversion is based on the available capacity of KBT. A 1-D numerical hydraulic model using HEC-RAS based on a proposed design is used to assess the performance of the diversion system in any combination of upstream and downstream boundary condition. Simulations were done for steady condition. The results show that capacity of the system can be achieved for certain condition at upstream and downstream boundary. The effects at the downstream reach of Ciliwung and Cipinang River due to the diversion are also obtained.

Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

Science.gov (United States)

Manukalo, V.

2012-12-01

Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

Rapid Flood Map Generation from Spaceborne SAR Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Yun, S. H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Jung, J.; Gurrola, E. M.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Webb, F.; Sacco, G. F.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.

2016-12-01

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team has responded to the January 2016 US Midwest Floods along the Mississippi River. Daily teleconferences with FEMA, NOAA, NGA, and USGS, provided information on precipitation and flood crest migration, based on which we coordinated with the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) through NASA headquarters for JAXA's ALOS-2 timely tasking over two paths. We produced flood extent maps using ALOS-2 SM3 mode Level 1.5 data that were provided through the International Charter and stored at the US Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) archive. On January 6, the first four frames (70 km x 240 km) were acquired, which included the City of Memphis. We registered post-event SAR images to pre-event images, applied radiometric calibration, took a logarithm of the ratio of the two images. Two thresholds were applied to represent flooded areas that became open water (colored in blue) and flooded areas with tall vegetation (colored in red). The second path was acquired on January 11 further down along the Mississippi River. Seven frames (70 km x 420 km) were acquired and flood maps were created in the similar fashion. The maps were delivered to the FEMA as well as posted on ARIA's public website. The FEMA stated that SAR provides inspection priority for optical imagery and ground response. The ALOS-2 data and the products have been a very important source of information during this response as the flood crest has moved down stream. The SAR data continue to be an important resource during times when optical observations are often not useful. In close collaboration with FEMA and USGS, we also work on other flood events including June 2016 China Floods using European Space Agency's (ESA's) Sentienl-1 data, to produce flood extent maps and identify algorithmic needs and ARIA system's requirements to automate and rapidly produce and deliver flood maps for future events. With the addition of Sentinel-1B

River flooding due to intense precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, James C.

2014-01-01

River stage can rise and cause site flooding due to local intense precipitation (LIP), dam failures, snow melt in conjunction with precipitation or dam failures, etc. As part of the re-evaluation of the design basis as well as the PRA analysis of other external events, the likelihood and consequence of river flooding leading to the site flooding need to be examined more rigorously. To evaluate the effects of intense precipitation on site structures, the site watershed hydrology and pond storage are calculated. To determine if river flooding can cause damage to risk-significant systems, structures, and components (SSC), water surface elevations are analyzed. Typically, the amount and rate of the input water is determined first. For intense precipitation, the fraction of the rainfall in the watershed drainage area not infiltrated into the ground is collected in the river and contributes to the rise of river water elevation. For design basis analysis, the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) is evaluated using the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) based on the site topography/configuration. The peak runoff flow rate and water surface elevations resulting from the precipitation induced flooding can then be estimated. The runoff flow hydrograph and peak discharge flows can be developed using the synthetic hydrograph method. The standard step method can then be used to determine the water surface elevations along the river channel. Thus, the flood water from the local intense precipitation storm and excess runoff from the nearby river can be evaluated to calculate the water surface elevations, which can be compared with the station grade floor elevation to determine the effects of site flooding on risk-significant SSCs. The analysis needs to consider any possible diversion flow and the effects of changes to the site configurations. Typically, the analysis is performed based on conservative peak rainfall intensity and the assumptions of failure of the site drainage facilities

Social media for disaster response during floods

Science.gov (United States)

Eilander, D.; van de Vries, C.; Baart, F.; van Swol, R.; Wagemaker, J.; van Loenen, A.

2015-12-01

During floods it is difficult to obtain real-time accurate information about the extent and severity of the hazard. This information is very important for disaster risk reduction management and crisis relief organizations. Currently, real-time information is derived from few sources such as field reports, traffic camera's, satellite images and areal images. However, getting a real-time and accurate picture of the situation on the ground remains difficult. At the same time, people affected by natural hazards increasingly share their observations and their needs through digital media. Unlike conventional monitoring systems, Twitter data contains a relatively large number of real-time ground truth observations representing both physical hazard characteristics and hazard impacts. In the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, the intensity of unique flood related tweets during a flood event, peaked at almost 900 tweets per minute during floods in early 2015. Flood events around the world in 2014/2015 yielded large numbers of flood related tweets: from Philippines (85.000) to Pakistan (82.000) to South-Korea (50.000) to Detroit (20.000). The challenge here is to filter out useful content from this cloud of data, validate these observations and convert them to readily usable information. In Jakarta, flood related tweets often contain information about the flood depth. In a pilot we showed that this type of information can be used for real-time mapping of the flood extent by plotting these observations on a Digital Elevation Model. Uncertainties in the observations were taken into account by assigning a probability to each observation indicating its likelihood to be correct based on statistical analysis of the total population of tweets. The resulting flood maps proved to be correct for about 75% of the neighborhoods in Jakarta. Further cross-validation of flood related tweets against (hydro-) meteorological data is to likely improve the skill of the method.

Propagation and composition of the flood wave on the upper Mississippi River, 1993

Science.gov (United States)

Moody, John A.

1995-01-01

During spring and summer 1993, record flooding inundated much of the upper Mississippi River Basin. The magnitude of the damages-in terms of property, disrupted business, and personal trauma was unmatched by any other flood disaster in United States history. Property damage alone is expected to exceed $10 billion. Damaged highways and submerged roads disrupted overland transportation throughout the flooded region. The Mississippi and the Missouri Rivers were closed to navigation before, during, and after the flooding. Millions of acres of productive farmland remained under water for weeks during the growing season. Rills and gullies in many tilled fields are the result of the severe erosion that occurred throughout the Midwestern United States farmbelt. The hydrologic effects of extended rainfall throughout the upper Midwestern United States were severe and widespread. The banks and channels of many rivers were severely eroded, and sediment was deposited over large areas of the basin's flood plain. Record flows submerged many areas that had not been affected by previous floods. Industrial and agricultural areas were inundated, which caused concern about the transport and fate of industrial chemicals, sewage effluent, and agricultural chemicals in the floodwaters. The extent and duration of the flooding caused numerous levees to fail. One failed levee on the Raccoon River in Des Moines, Iowa, led to flooding of the city's water treatment plant. As a result, the city was without drinking water for 19 days.As the Nation's principal water-science agency, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is in a unique position to provide an immediate assessment of some of the hydrological effects of the 1993 flood. The USGS maintains a hydrologic data network and conducts extensive water-resources investigations nationwide. Long-term data from this network and information on local and regional hydrology provide the basis for identifying and documenting the effects of the flooding

Analysis and GIS Mapping of Flooding Hazards on 10 May 2016, Guangzhou, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hai-Min Lyu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available On 10 May 2016, Guangdong Province, China, suffered a heavy rainstorm. This rainstorm flooded the whole city of Guangzhou. More than 100,000 people were affected by the flooding, in which eight people lost their lives. Subway stations, cars, and buses were submerged. In order to analyse the influential factors of this flooding, topographical characteristics were mapped using Digital Elevation Model (DEM by the Geographical Information System (GIS and meteorological conditions were statistically summarised at both the whole city level and the district level. To analyse the relationship between flood risk and urbanization, GIS was also adopted to map the effect of the subway system using the Multiple Buffer operator over the flooding distribution area. Based on the analyses, one of the significant influential factors of flooding was identified as the urbanization degree, e.g., construction of a subway system, which forms along flood-prone areas. The total economic loss due to flooding in city centers with high urbanization has become very serious. Based on the analyses, the traditional standard of severity of flooding hazards (rainfall intensity grade was modified. Rainfall intensity for severity flooding was decreased from 50 mm to 30 mm in urbanized city centers. In order to protect cities from flooding, a “Sponge City” planning approach is recommended to increase the temporary water storage capacity during heavy rainstorms. In addition, for future city management, the combined use of GIS and Building Information Modelling (BIM is recommended to evaluate flooding hazards.

Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

Science.gov (United States)

David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

2010-05-01

Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

Keep Children Safe From Drowning in Flooded Areas

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2006-08-10

As the cleanup process begins after a natural disaster, there may be areas of flooding. Watch your children to prevent them from playing in or around flood water.  Created: 8/10/2006 by Emergency Communications System.   Date Released: 10/22/2007.

Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot

Science.gov (United States)

Mandl, Daniel; Policelli, Fritz; Frye, Stuart; Cappelare, Pat; Langenhove, Guido Van; Szarzynski, Joerg; Sohlberg, Rob

2010-01-01

The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

Voice-enabled Knowledge Engine using Flood Ontology and Natural Language Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2015-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The IFIS is designed for use by general public, often people with no domain knowledge and limited general science background. To improve effective communication with such audience, we have introduced a voice-enabled knowledge engine on flood related issues in IFIS. Instead of navigating within many features and interfaces of the information system and web-based sources, the system provides dynamic computations based on a collection of built-in data, analysis, and methods. The IFIS Knowledge Engine connects to real-time stream gauges, in-house data sources, analysis and visualization tools to answer natural language questions. Our goal is the systematization of data and modeling results on flood related issues in Iowa, and to provide an interface for definitive answers to factual queries. The goal of the knowledge engine is to make all flood related knowledge in Iowa easily accessible to everyone, and support voice-enabled natural language input. We aim to integrate and curate all flood related data, implement analytical and visualization tools, and make it possible to compute answers from questions. The IFIS explicitly implements analytical methods and models, as algorithms, and curates all flood related data and resources so that all these resources are computable. The IFIS Knowledge Engine computes the answer by deriving it from its computational knowledge base. The knowledge engine processes the statement, access data warehouse, run complex database queries on the server-side and return outputs in various formats. This presentation provides an overview of IFIS Knowledge Engine, its unique information interface and functionality as an educational tool, and discusses the future plans

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2015-01-01

Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.