WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing security dynamics

  1. MANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES IN DYNAMICALLY CHANGING SECURITY ENVRIONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sevdalina Dimitrova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The monograph recommends integration between science and practice, experts from national bodies and scientific research potential of academic community of military universities in the field of management of resources of security and defence in accordance to the challenges in security environment caused by its dynamic and often unpredictable changes.

  2. Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olumide D. Onafeso

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Decadal variability in African rainfall is projected from General Circulation Models (GCMs to continue under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. Effects on rain intensity, spatio-temporal variability of growing seasons, flooding, drought, and land-use change impose feedbacks at regional-local scales. Yet, empirical knowledge of associated impacts on crop yield is limited; thus, we examined the imperatives for food security in Nigeria. Bivariate correlation and multiple regression suggests impending drought in the northern region where livestock farming is predominant. Relative contributions of climate independent variables in determining crop yield by backward selection procedures with stepwise approach indexed the impacts of annual climate variability by a parameter computed as annual yield minus mean annual yield divided by the standard deviation. Results show Z-distribution approximately 5 to + 5, when 3 indicate impacts significant at 95% confidence levels. In conclusion, we established the interwoven relationship between climatic change and food security.

  3. Profiles of Food Security for US Farmworker Households and Factors Related to Dynamic of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ip, Edward H; Saldana, Santiago; Arcury, Thomas A; Grzywacz, Joseph G; Trejo, Grisel; Quandt, Sara A

    2015-10-01

    We recruited 248 farmworker families with preschool-aged children in North Carolina and examined food security indicators over 24 months to identify food security patterns and examine the dynamic of change over time. Participants in the Niños Sanos study, conducted 2011 to 2014, completed quarterly food security assessments. Based on responses to items in the US Household Food Security Survey Module, we identified different states of food security by using hidden Markov model analysis, and examined factors associated with different states. We delineated factors associated with changes in state by using mixed-effect ordinal logistic regression. About half of the households (51%) consistently stayed in the most food-secure state. The least food-secure state was transient, with only 29% probability of this state for 2 consecutive quarters. Seasonal (vs migrant) work status, having immigration documents (vs not documented), and season predicted higher levels of food security. Heterogeneity in food security among farmworker households calls for tailoring intervention strategies. The transiency and unpredictability of low food security suggest that access to safety-net programs could reduce low food security risk in this population.

  4. Dynamic secrets in communication security

    CERN Document Server

    Xiao, Sheng; Towsley, Donald

    2013-01-01

    Dynamic secrets are constantly generated and updated from messages exchanged between two communication users. When dynamic secrets are used as a complement to existing secure communication systems, a stolen key or password can be quickly and automatically reverted to its secret status without disrupting communication. 'Dynamic Secrets in Communication Security' presents unique security properties and application studies for this technology. Password theft and key theft no longer pose serious security threats when parties frequently use dynamic secrets. This book also illustrates that a dynamic

  5. Climate change and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, P.J; Ingram, J.S.I; Brklacich, M

    2005-01-01

    Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their

  6. Secure Dynamic Program Repartitioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rene Rydhoff; Probst, Christian

    2005-01-01

    Secure program partitioning has been introduced as a language-based technique to allow the distribution of data and computation across mutualy untrusted hosts, while at the same time guaranteeing the protection of confidential data. Programs that have been annotated with security types......, but the partitioning compiler becomes a part of the network and can recompile applications, thus alowing hosts to enter or leave the framework. We contend that this setting is superior to static partitioning, since it allows redistribution of data and computations. This is especialy beneficial if the new host alows...... data and computations to better fulfil the trust requirements of the users. Erasure Policies ensure that the original host of the redistributed data or computation does not store the data any longer....

  7. A Dynamic Framework for Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Veena; Konar, Megan; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2017-04-01

    Water security is a multi-faceted problem, going beyond mere balancing of supply and demand. Conventional attempts to quantify water security starting rely on static indices at a particular place and point in time. While these are simple and scalable, they lack predictive or explanatory power. 1) Most static indices focus on specific spatial scales and largely ignore cross-scale feedbacks between human and water systems. 2) They fail to account for the increasing spatial specialization in the modern world - some regions are cities others are agricultural breadbaskets; so water security means different things in different places. Human adaptation to environmental change necessitates a dynamic view of water security. We present a framework that defines water security as an emergent outcome of a coupled socio-hydrologic system. Over the medium term (5-25 years), water security models might hold governance, culture and infrastructure constant, but allow humans to respond to changes and thus predict how water security would evolve. But over very long time-frames (25-100 years), a society's values, norms and beliefs themselves may themselves evolve; these in turn may prompt changes in policy, governance and infrastructure. Predictions of water security in the long term involve accounting for such regime shifts in the cultural and political context of a watershed by allowing the governing equations of the models to change.

  8. Complex networks: Dynamics and security

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents a perspective in the study of complex networks by focusing on how dynamics may affect network security under attacks. ... Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA; Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil ...

  9. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.; Hallegatte, St.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  10. Security Dynamics of Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Khaled M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores various dimensions of cloud computing security. It argues that security concerns of cloud computing need to be addressed from the perspective of individual stakeholder. Security focuses of cloud computing are essentially different in terms of its characteristics and business model. Conventional way of viewing as well as addressing security such as ‘bolting-in’ on the top of cloud computing may not work well. The paper attempts to portray the security spectrum necessary for...

  11. Enabling Dynamic Security Management of Networked Systems via Device-Embedded Security (Self-Securing Devices)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ganger, Gregory R

    2007-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of the work on the AFOSR's Critical Infrastructure Protection Program project, entitled Enabling Dynamic Security Management of Networked Systems via Device-Embedded Security...

  12. CHANGES IN THE SECURITY AGENDA: CRITICAL SECURITY STUDIES AND HUMAN SECURITY. THE CASE OF CHINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen THI THUY HANG

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the end of the Cold War the meaning of security has fundamentally changed. Issues which are labeled as non-traditional security namely human development, economic crises, environmental degradation, natural disaster, poverty, epidemics… have become a crucial part of the security agenda. These changes have been intensified with the development of the two approaches: Critical Security Studies and Human Security. This article explores how the meaning of security has changed and how the boundaries between traditional and non-traditional security have become blurred. The case of China is taken as empirical evidence to support the assertion that security has evolved beyond its traditional focus on the state.

  13. Changing Homeland Security: In 2010, Was Homeland Security Useful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Education Consortium, September 2007). 8 James Ramsay , Daniel Cutrer, and Robert Raffel, “Development of an Outcomes-Based Undergraduate Curriculum in... Gordon , “Changing Homeland Security: Teaching the Core,” Homeland Security Affairs II, no. 1 (April 2006) http://www.hsaj.org/?article=2.1.1. 13 Kuhn

  14. Anticipating the unintended consequences of security dynamics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Overfelt, James Robert; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Saltiel, David H.; Simon Paul Moulton

    2010-01-01

    In a globalized world, dramatic changes within any one nation causes ripple or even tsunamic effects within neighbor nations and nations geographically far removed. Multinational interventions to prevent or mitigate detrimental changes can easily cause secondary unintended consequences more detrimental and enduring than the feared change instigating the intervention. This LDRD research developed the foundations for a flexible geopolitical and socioeconomic simulation capability that focuses on the dynamic national security implications of natural and man-made trauma for a nation-state and the states linked to it through trade or treaty. The model developed contains a database for simulating all 229 recognized nation-states and sovereignties with the detail of 30 economic sectors including consumers and natural resources. The model explicitly simulates the interactions among the countries and their governments. Decisions among governments and populations is based on expectation formation. In the simulation model, failed expectations are used as a key metric for tension across states, among ethnic groups, and between population factions. This document provides the foundational documentation for the model.

  15. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III (.; ); Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  16. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  17. Climate Change and Risks to National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titley, D.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

  18. Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

  19. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  20. Food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

    2012-01-01

    By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

  1. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  2. Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2011-12-01

    Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

  3. An Encryption Key for Secure Authentication: The Dynamic Solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zubayr Khalid

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In modern day technology, the Information Society is at risk. Passwords are a multi-user computer systems usual first line of defence against intrusion. A password may be textual with any combination of alphanumeric characters or biometric or 3-D. But no authentication protocol is fully secured against todays hackers as all of them are Static in type. Dynamic authentication protocol is still a theoretical concept. In this paper, we are focusing on a concept of authentication technique which is actually dynamic in genre, i.e. the password here will change in t time (where t is as small as possible. This technique comprises of both hardware and software part. In this paper, we have covered the idea of generating an efficient algorithm that can work as the final in the Dynamic Password Authentication system. We have used standard deviation within statistics to generalize the possible password which is further secured by Feistel Block Cipher and Advanced Encryption Standard technique (AES, leading and following the said mathematics respectively. In order to allow the system to create variable password in the least time interval possible, we must make sure our process is not much complex.

  4. Changing Homeland Security: Ten Essential Homeland Security Books

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bellavita, Christopher

    2007-01-01

    .... The list is personal and provisional. The discipline is too new to have a canon. We need to continuously examine what is signal and what is background noise in homeland security's academic environment...

  5. Security infrastructure for dynamically provisioned cloud infrastructure services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demchenko, Y.; Ngo, C.; de Laat, C.; Lopez, D.R.; Morales, A.; García-Espín, J.A.; Pearson, S.; Yee, G.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter discusses conceptual issues, basic requirements and practical suggestions for designing dynamically configured security infrastructure provisioned on demand as part of the cloud-based infrastructure. This chapter describes general use cases for provisioning cloud infrastructure services

  6. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the last century and predictions show a further 2.6 °C increase by 2050. The yearly amount of precipitation significantly decreased from 640 mm to 560 mm with a more uneven temporal distribution. The following aspects can be considered in the correlation between climate change and agriculture: a) impact of agriculture on climate, b) future impact of climate change on agriculture and food supply, c) impact of climate change on food security. The reason for the significant change of climate is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) which results from anthropological activities. Between 2008 and 2012, Hungary had to reduce its GHG emission by 6% compared to the base period between 1985-1987. At the end of 2011, Hungarian GHG emission was 43.1% lower than that of the base period. The total gross emission was 66.2 million CO2 equivalent, while the net emission which also includes land use, land use change and forestry was 62.8 million tons. The emission of agriculture was 8.8 million tons (OMSZ, 2013). The greatest opportunity to reduce agricultural GHG emission is dinitrogen oxides which can be significantly mitigated by the smaller extent and more efficient use of nitrogen-based fertilisers (precision farming) and by using biomanures produced from utilised waste materials. Plant and animal species which better adapt to extreme weather circumstances should be bred and maintained, thereby making an investment in food security. Climate

  7. Airline Security and a Strategy for Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Welch, Timothy J

    2006-01-01

    .... Obligated to secure the Homeland the United States Government scrambled to develop measures that would uphold societal values while providing an in-depth defense capable of ensuring a more secure society...

  8. Understanding human factors in cyber security as a dynamic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Young, H.J.; Vliet, A.J. van; Ven, J.G.S. van de; Jol, S.C.; Broekman, C.C.M.T.

    2018-01-01

    The perspective of human factors is largely missing from the wider cyber security dialogue and its scope is often limited. We propose a framework in which we consider cyber security as a state of a system. System change is brought on by an entity’s behavior. Interventions are ways of changing

  9. Household Food Security Policy Analysis A System Dynamics Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isdore Paterson Guma

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Household food security FS is complex and requires multiple stakeholder intervention. Systemic approach aids stakeholders to understand the mechanisms and feedback between complexities in food security providing effective decision making as global resource consumption continues to grow. The study investigated food security challenges and a system dynamics model was developed for evaluating policies and intervention strategies for better livelihood at household level. Dynamic synthesis methodology questionnaires and interview guide were used to unearth food security challenges faced by households. A causal loop diagram was drawn. The model demonstrates a balance between food stock seeds preserved seeds for sale and consumption from crop harvest throughout the food cycles. This research makes contribution to the literature by evaluating dynamic synthesis methodology and FS policy discussions from a feedback point of view.

  10. Embedding security messages in existing processes: a pragmatic and effective approach to information security culture change

    CERN Document Server

    Lopienski, Sebastian

    Companies and organizations world-wide depend more and more on IT infrastructure and operations. Computer systems store vital information and sensitive data; computing services are essential for main business processes. This high dependency comes with a number of security risks, which have to be managed correctly on technological, organizational and human levels. Addressing the human aspects of information security often boils down just to procedures, training and awareness raising. On the other hand, employees and collaborators do not adopt security attitude and habits simply when told to do so – a real change in behaviour requires an established security culture. But how to introduce a security culture? This thesis outlines the need of developing or improving security culture, and discusses how this can be done. The proposed approach is to gradually build security knowledge and awareness, and influence behaviours. The way to achieve this is to make security communication pervasive by embedding security me...

  11. Secure Group Communications for Large Dynamic Multicast Group

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Jing; Zhou Mingtian

    2003-01-01

    As the major problem in multicast security, the group key management has been the focus of research But few results are satisfactory. In this paper, the problems of group key management and access control for large dynamic multicast group have been researched and a solution based on SubGroup Secure Controllers (SGSCs) is presented, which solves many problems in IOLUS system and WGL scheme.

  12. DYNAMICS OF FOOD SECURITY IN RECENT DECADES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florea Adrian

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available By food security we understand the people's access, at all time, to food, needed for a healthy and active life. It can be thought at global, regional, state or local level, but only as a strategy with relevance only to the family, to be able to buy, thanks to its own production or purchase, sufficient food to meet the needs of all its members. Diet must be quantity sufficient, variety and of good enough quality and each family member should be healthy to take full advantage of consumed foods.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security and Poverty Reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic interactions between bio-geophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of foods, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability, utilization and access, so that food security is diminished when ...

  14. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  15. Security Situation in China’s Neighboring Regions: New Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU FENG

    2016-01-01

    Recent Development of Security Structure in East Asia Region:Alliance Politics Has Entered a New Strategic Active Stage Since the end of the Cold War in1991,the East Asia Region has witnessed quite a number of changes in security situation.However,there have been no decisive changes in regional security order,power distribution or the strategic choices of major states in the region.The Obama Adminis-

  16. Climate change and food security in Tanzania: analysis of current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A review of literature was conducted in order to identify knowledge gaps in climate change and food security research in Tanzania. The review focused on published literature covering the past 20 years addressing climate change effects on various components of the food security. The review of literature reveals, among ...

  17. Security Analysis of Dynamic SDN Architectures Based on Game Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Qi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Security evaluation of SDN architectures is of critical importance to develop robust systems and address attacks. Focused on a novel-proposed dynamic SDN framework, a game-theoretic model is presented to analyze its security performance. This model can represent several kinds of players’ information, simulate approximate attack scenarios, and quantitatively estimate systems’ reliability. And we explore several typical game instances defined by system’s capability, players’ objects, and strategies. Experimental results illustrate that the system’s detection capability is not a decisive element to security enhancement as introduction of dynamism and redundancy into SDN can significantly improve security gain and compensate for its detection weakness. Moreover, we observe a range of common strategic actions across environmental conditions. And analysis reveals diverse defense mechanisms adopted in dynamic systems have different effect on security improvement. Besides, the existence of equilibrium in particular situations further proves the novel structure’s feasibility, flexibility, and its persistent ability against long-term attacks.

  18. Logistics Dynamics and Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klumpp, Matthias; Abidi, Hella; Bioly, Sascha; Buchkremer, Rüdiger; Ebener, Stefan; Sandhaus, Gregor; Freitag, Michael; Kotzab, Herbert; Pannek, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Change and dynamics in logistics are interestingly driven at the same time by external as well as internal forces. This contribution outlines a big data literature review methodology to overview recognizable external changes and analyzes the interaction of one major trend—demographic change—further

  19. Dynamic reconfiguration of security policies in wireless sensor networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Mónica; Gámez, Nadia; Fuentes, Lidia; Amor, Mercedes; Horcas, José Miguel; Ayala, Inmaculada

    2015-03-04

    Providing security and privacy to wireless sensor nodes (WSNs) is very challenging, due to the heterogeneity of sensor nodes and their limited capabilities in terms of energy, processing power and memory. The applications for these systems run in a myriad of sensors with different low-level programming abstractions, limited capabilities and different routing protocols. This means that applications for WSNs need mechanisms for self-adaptation and for self-protection based on the dynamic adaptation of the algorithms used to provide security. Dynamic software product lines (DSPLs) allow managing both variability and dynamic software adaptation, so they can be considered a key technology in successfully developing self-protected WSN applications. In this paper, we propose a self-protection solution for WSNs based on the combination of the INTER-TRUST security framework (a solution for the dynamic negotiation and deployment of security policies) and the FamiWare middleware (a DSPL approach to automatically configure and reconfigure instances of a middleware for WSNs).We evaluate our approach using a case study from the intelligent transportation system domain.

  20. Using VO Concept for Managing Dynamic Security Associations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demchenko, Y.; Gommans, L.; de Laat, C.T.A.M.

    2006-01-01

    This research paper presents results of the analysis how the Virtual Organisation (VO) concept can be used for managing dynamic security associations in collaborative applications and for complex resource provisioning. The paper provides an overview of the current practice in VO management at the

  1. Dynamic Reconfiguration of Security Policies in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mónica Pinto

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Providing security and privacy to wireless sensor nodes (WSNs is very challenging, due to the heterogeneity of sensor nodes and their limited capabilities in terms of energy, processing power and memory. The applications for these systems run in a myriad of sensors with different low-level programming abstractions, limited capabilities and different routing protocols. This means that applications for WSNs need mechanisms for self-adaptation and for self-protection based on the dynamic adaptation of the algorithms used to provide security. Dynamic software product lines (DSPLs allow managing both variability and dynamic software adaptation, so they can be considered a key technology in successfully developing self-protected WSN applications. In this paper, we propose a self-protection solution for WSNs based on the combination of the INTER-TRUST security framework (a solution for the dynamic negotiation and deployment of security policies and the FamiWare middleware (a DSPL approach to automatically configure and reconfigure instances of a middleware for WSNs.We evaluate our approach using a case study from the intelligent transportation system domain.

  2. Climate Change and Food In/Security: A Critical Nexus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Saidul Islam

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of climate change has been gaining widespread attention and concern as it has the ability to directly/indirectly affect our standard of living and quality of life. It has often been postulated that changes in climate would have a vast effect on food production systems and that food security might be threatened due to increasing climate change. However, it seems that research on climate change and food in/security has often been one-sided; with climate change being identified as the cause of food insecurity and not how the systems in place to ensure food security have exacerbated the issue of climate change. This paper thus seeks to give a more balanced view and thus understanding of the complex relationship between climate change and food security by critically examining both systems.

  3. A deeper look at climate change and national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Arnold Barry; Backus, George A.; Romig, Alton Dale, Jr.

    2010-03-01

    Climate change is a long-term process that will trigger a range of multi-dimensional demographic, economic, geopolitical, and national security issues with many unknowns and significant uncertainties. At first glance, climate-change-related national security dimensions seem far removed from today's major national security threats. Yet climate change has already set in motion forces that will require U.S. attention and preparedness. The extent and uncertainty associated with these situations necessitate a move away from conventional security practices, toward a small but flexible portfolio of assets to maintain U.S. interests. Thoughtful action is required now if we are to acquire the capabilities, tools, systems, and institutions needed to meet U.S. national security requirements as they evolve with the emerging stresses and shifts of climate change.

  4. Changing principles in European social security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oorschot, W.J.H.; Clasen, J.J.

    2002-01-01

    The provision of social security benefits rests on normative principles of social justice. Most strongly manifest in earnings-related social insurance, the principle of reciprocity has been increasingly questioned on grounds of equity, adequacy and fiscal viability, in the wake of socio-economic

  5. Secure physical layer using dynamic permutations in cognitive OFDMA systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meucci, F.; Wardana, Satya Ardhy; Prasad, Neeli R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a novel lightweight mechanism for a secure Physical (PHY) layer in Cognitive Radio Network (CRN) using Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM). User's data symbols are mapped over the physical subcarriers with a permutation formula. The PHY layer is secured...... with a random and dynamic subcarrier permutation which is based on a single pre-shared information and depends on Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). The dynamic subcarrier permutation is varying over time, geographical location and environment status, resulting in a very robust protection that ensures...... confidentiality. The method is shown to be effective also for existing non-cognitive systems. The proposed mechanism is effective against eavesdropping even if the eavesdropper adopts a long-time patterns analysis, thus protecting cryptography techniques of higher layers. The correlation properties...

  6. Reducing risks to food security from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Vermeulen, Sonja Joy; Aggarwal, Pramod

    2016-01-01

    , with very little attention paid to more systems components of cropping, let alone other dimensions of food security. Given the serious threats to food security, attention should shift to an action-oriented research agenda, where we see four key challenges: (a) changing the culture of research; (b) deriving...

  7. Behavior Change Support Systems for Privacy and Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kegel, Roeland Hendrik,Pieter; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Kulyk, Olga Anatoliyivna; Kelders, S.; van Gemert-Pijnen, L.; Oinas-Kukkonen, H

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes to use Behavior Change Support Systems (BCSSs) to improve the security of IT applications and the privacy of its users. We discuss challenges specific to BCSSs applied to information security, list research questions to be answered in order to meet these challenges, and propose

  8. Framework for optimal power flow incorporating dynamic system security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kady, M.A.; Owayedh, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper introduces a novel framework and methodologies which are capable of tackling the complex issue of power system economy versus security in a practical and effective manner. At heart of achieving such a challenging and far-reaching objective is the incorporation of the Dyanamic Security Assessment (DSA) into production optimization techniques using the Transient Energy Function (TEF) method. In addition, and in parallel with the already well established concept of the system security, two new concepts pertaining to power system performance will be introduced in this paper, namely the concept of system dynamic susceptibility, which measures the level of systems weakness to a particular contingency and the concept of system consequent restorability, which measures the extent of contingency severity in terms of the required subsequent system restoration work should a particular contingency occur. (author)

  9. Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ... those living in the Indus floodplains or on the edges of its deserts - received little attention. ... farmers' decision-making in water stressed regions, and the wider political and ...

  10. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia ... Eleven world-class research teams set to improve livestock vaccine development and production to benefit farmers across the ... Building resilience through socially equitable climate action.

  11. Assessment of the Technological Changes Impact on the Sustainability of State Security System of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olexandr Yemelyanov

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the governments of many countries are facing with a lack of funds for financing programs for social protection of population. Among the causes of this problem, we can indicate the high unemployment rate, which, among other things, is due to implementation of labor-saving technologies. The purpose of this work is to study the impact of technological changes on the sustainability of the state social security system in Ukraine. The general approaches to the assessment of the stability of the state social security system are described. The simulation of the effect of economically efficient technological changes on the company’s income and expenses was carried out. Some patterns of such changes are established. The group of productive technological changes types is presented. The model is developed, and an indicator of the impact estimation of efficiently effective technological changes on the stability of the state social security system is proposed. The analysis of the main indicators of the state social security system functioning of Ukraine is carried out. The dynamics of indicators characterizing the labor market of Ukraine is analyzed. The influence of changes in labor productivity on costs and profits by industries of Ukraine is estimated. The evaluation of the impact of economically efficient technological changes in the industries of Ukraine on the stability of its state social security system is carried out. The different state authorities can use the obtained results for developing measures to manage the sustainability of the state social security system.

  12. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Agriculture and Food Security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verschuuren, Jonathan

    Climate change has a profound impact on agriculture and on food security. At the same time agriculture contributes to climate change to a considerable extent. Fortunately there is also much to gain since the agricultural sector holds significant climate change mitigation potential through reductions

  13. Food Security, Land and Territorial Dynamics in Bolivia | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... national food supply, in favour of large agro-industrial producers in the East. These changes have affected the food security of more than 70% of the rural population. ... resulting in decreased food production and increased illegal imports of food. Recently the government abandoned its policy of selling food below market ...

  14. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pumphrey, Carolyn

    2008-01-01

    .... But this notion was generally scoffed at. Over the course of the 20th century, the scientific community gradually came to terms with this theory and began to regard climate change even rapid climate change as more than a distant possibility...

  15. Secure Dynamic access control scheme of PHR in cloud computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tzer-Shyong; Liu, Chia-Hui; Chen, Tzer-Long; Chen, Chin-Sheng; Bau, Jian-Guo; Lin, Tzu-Ching

    2012-12-01

    With the development of information technology and medical technology, medical information has been developed from traditional paper records into electronic medical records, which have now been widely applied. The new-style medical information exchange system "personal health records (PHR)" is gradually developed. PHR is a kind of health records maintained and recorded by individuals. An ideal personal health record could integrate personal medical information from different sources and provide complete and correct personal health and medical summary through the Internet or portable media under the requirements of security and privacy. A lot of personal health records are being utilized. The patient-centered PHR information exchange system allows the public autonomously maintain and manage personal health records. Such management is convenient for storing, accessing, and sharing personal medical records. With the emergence of Cloud computing, PHR service has been transferred to storing data into Cloud servers that the resources could be flexibly utilized and the operation cost can be reduced. Nevertheless, patients would face privacy problem when storing PHR data into Cloud. Besides, it requires a secure protection scheme to encrypt the medical records of each patient for storing PHR into Cloud server. In the encryption process, it would be a challenge to achieve accurately accessing to medical records and corresponding to flexibility and efficiency. A new PHR access control scheme under Cloud computing environments is proposed in this study. With Lagrange interpolation polynomial to establish a secure and effective PHR information access scheme, it allows to accurately access to PHR with security and is suitable for enormous multi-users. Moreover, this scheme also dynamically supports multi-users in Cloud computing environments with personal privacy and offers legal authorities to access to PHR. From security and effectiveness analyses, the proposed PHR access

  16. Demographics and the Changing National Security Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    .... Long- term fertility trends, urbanization, migration, and changes in the ethnic composition and age profile of populations can influence the likelihood and nature of conflict among and within nations...

  17. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth

    2012-01-01

    Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used...... as the channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across...

  18. Optimal dispatch in dynamic security constrained open power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, S.N.; David, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    Power system security is a new concern in the competitive power market operation, because the integration of the system controller and the generation owner has been broken. This paper presents an approach for dynamic security constrained optimal dispatch in restructured power market environment. The transient energy margin using transient energy function (TEF) approach has been used to calculate the stability margin of the system and a hybrid method is applied to calculate the approximate unstable equilibrium point (UEP) that is used to calculate the exact UEP and thus, the energy margin using TEF. The case study results illustrated on two systems shows that the operating mechanisms are compatible with the new business environment. (author)

  19. Agroforestry, climate change, and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Successfully addressing global climate change effects on agriculture will require a holistic, sustained approach incorporating a suite of strategies at multiple spatial scales and time horizons. In the USA of the 1930’s, bold and innovative leadership at high levels of government was needed to enact...

  20. Water Security and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuula Honkonen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will bring about unprecedented economic, social and environmental effects, which require both the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to its adverse effects. Water is the main element through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Climate change results in increased uncertainties, complexities, stress and potential for conflicts within water management, both among and within states. New forms of governance are needed if the world is to respond to the need to adapt to changes in freshwater supply and to manage water security risks. This paper suggests that adaptive governance should to be main-streamed into all water regulation to ensure the availability of and access to safe water resources and to prevent water-related conflicts. The paper discusses the concept of water security in the context of climate change, the threats that climate change poses to water security, and the concept and implications of adaptive governance as a possible solution. The application of adaptive governance requires a certain degree of institutional and normative flexibility, instruments and institutions that can respond and adapt to changes and manage the level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The governance institutions, methods and instruments should be responsive to new information and different kinds of uncertainties, while reflecting the vulnerabilities, capacities, needs and priorities of both societies and ecosystems in the face of climate change. Water security risks could be reduced by increased hydrosolidarity among states, which would present the challenges posed by climate change on water governance and security as primarily an opportunity for new forms of cooperation.

  1. Energy security and climate change protection: Complementarity or tradeoff?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Stephen P.A.; Huntington, Hillard G.

    2008-01-01

    Energy security and climate change protection have risen to the forefront of energy policy - linked in time and a perception that both goals can be achieved through the same or similar policies. Although such complementarity can exist for individual technologies, policymakers face a tradeoff between these two policy objectives. The tradeoff arises when policymakers choose the mix of individual technologies with which to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security. Optimal policy is achieved when the cost of the additional use of each technology equals the value of the additional energy security and reduction in greenhouse gas emission that it provides. Such an approach may draw more heavily on conventional technologies that provide benefits in only one dimension than on more costly technologies that both increase energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (author)

  2. Arctic security in an age of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraska, James (ed.)

    2013-03-01

    Publisher review: This book examines Arctic defense policy and military security from the perspective of all eight Arctic states. In light of climate change and melting ice in the Arctic Ocean, Canada, Russia, Denmark (Greenland), Norway and the United States, as well as Iceland, Sweden and Finland, are grappling with an emerging Arctic security paradigm. This volume brings together the world's most seasoned Arctic political-military experts from Europe and North America to analyze how Arctic nations are adapting their security postures to accommodate increased shipping, expanding naval presence, and energy and mineral development in the polar region. The book analyzes the ascent of Russia as the first 'Arctic superpower', the growing importance of polar security for NATO and the Nordic states, and the increasing role of Canada and the United States in the region.(Author)

  3. National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    there would be too much. Over the coming decades, projected climate change likely will cause Australia, portions of India , and much of inland China...significant potential water , food, and energy insecurity; political instability; extreme weather events; and other manifestations of climate change ...production, and human sustenance. In light of projected climate change , stresses on the water -food-energy nexus are a mounting security concern

  4. Taking Up the Security Challenge of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-05-26

    Climate change , in which man-made global warming is a major factor, will likely have dramatic and long-lasting consequences with profound security...effects of climate change are greatest, particularly in weak states that are already vulnerable to environmental destabilization. Two things are vitally...important: stemming the tide of climate change and adapting to its far-reaching consequences. This project examines the destabilizing effects of climate

  5. Food Security and Climate Change in Cambodia | CRDI - Centre de ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Given the country's dependence on agriculture and natural resources, tackling climate change and food security together is essential. ... L'honorable Chrystia Freeland, ministre du Commerce international, a annoncé le lancement d'un nouveau projet financé par le Centre de recherches pour le développement international ...

  6. The Intersection of National Security and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hund, Gretchen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fankhauser, Jana G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kurzrok, Andrew J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sandusky, Jessica A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-07-29

    On June 4, 2014, the Henry M. Jackson Foundation and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory hosted a groundbreaking symposium in Seattle, Washington, that brought together 36 leaders from federal agencies, state and local governments, NGOs, business, and academia. The participants examined approaches and tools to help decision makers make informed choices about the climate and security risks they face. The following executive summary is based on the day’s discussions and examines the problem of climate change and its impact on national security, the responses to date, and future considerations.

  7. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

  8. Nuclear safeguards and security in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badolato, E.V.

    1986-01-01

    Two major crises of 1986 - the Chernobyl nuclear accident and international terrorism have had the effect of making what everyone does even more critically important for U.S. national security and for the security of the world. Chernobyl can be a starting point for efforts to make nuclear power systems safer and more benign. It also poses very basic questions for nuclear arms control activities. A fundamental objective of the Administration's arms control policy is to achieve substantial and equitable reductions in U.S. and Soviet nuclear forces with effective verification. However, Chernobyl served to remind the U.S. once again of the obsessive secretiveness of the Soviet Union and the difficulties of obtaining information on Soviet nuclear weapon activities. All of this points to the importance of developing improved monitoring technologies and obtaining Soviet agreement on on-site inspection. Nuclear safeguards and security developments in response to a changing world are the topic of discussion in this paper

  9. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  10. On-line Dynamic Security Assessment in Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel

    and solar radiation. Moreover, ongoing research suggests that demand response will be introduced to maintain power balance between generation and consumption at all times. Due to these changes the operating point of the power system will be less predictable and today’s stability and security assessment...... for early prediction of critical voltage sags is described. The method’s performance is compared to other prediction approaches. The results show that the proposed method succeeds in early, accurately and consistently predicting critically low voltage sags. An efficient on-line DSA not only identifies...

  11. THE FACTOR OF ENERGY-INFORMATION SECURITY IN THE FRAMEWORK OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION-RELATED CHANGES

    OpenAIRE

    Alexey Viktorovich SUHORUKHIH

    2015-01-01

    The paper examined the grounds having involved global social and cultural changes, and emphasized the precedence taken by an energy-information component to the geopolitical dynamics of the civilization continuum. The study emphasized the relevance of new facets in social and cultural insight urged to respond to challenges of direct mental hazards emerging over the world, and requirement of energy-information security the civilization has sought for, assumed to be the framework for considerin...

  12. Analysing Security Subcomplexes in a Changing Middle East

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a theoretical framework for a collection of articles (“special issue”), which aims at discussing the role of non-Arab state actors and non-state actors in a changing Middle East. The articles in the collection offer perspectives that have been overlooked in recent research......, namely those focusing on the role of non-Arab state actors and non-state actors in connection with the changing security environment in the region. Furthermore, these articles discuss how changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are appearing in different and shifting contexts...... in the creation of new local, sub-regional, or regional security subcomplexes in which Arab states, non-Arab states and non-state actors enter into new conflicts, alliances and other political relations with and against each other. The role of international actors interfering in the region is also analyzed...

  13. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yator, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    This study sought to address the existing gap on the impact of climate change on food security in support of policy measures to avert famine catastrophes. Fixed and random effects regressions for crop food security were estimated. The study simulated the expected impact of future climate change on food insecurity based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenario (RCPs). The study makes use of county-level yields estimates (beans, maize, millet and sorghum) and daily climate data (1971 to 2010). Climate variability affects food security irrespective of how food security is defined. Rainfall during October-November-December (OND), as well as during March-April-May (MAM) exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with most food crops; the effects are most pronounced for maize and sorghum. Beans and Millet are found to be largely unresponsive to climate variability and also to time-invariant factors. OND rains and fall and summer temperature exhibit a U-shaped relationship with yields for most crops, while MAM rains temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship. However, winter temperatures exhibit a hill-shaped relationship with most crops. Project future climate change scenarios on crop productivity show that climate change will adversely affect food security, with up to 69% decline in yields by the year 2100. Climate variables have a non-linear relationship with food insecurity. Temperature exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with food insecurity, suggesting that increased temperatures will increase crop food insecurity. However, maize and millet, benefit from increased summer and winter temperatures. The simulated effects of different climate change scenarios on food insecurity suggest that adverse climate change will increase food insecurity in Kenya. The largest increases in food insecurity are predicted for the RCP 8.5Wm2, compared to RCP 4.5Wm2. Climate change is likely to have the greatest effects on maize insecurity, which is likely

  14. Information Security: A Scientometric Study of the Profile, Structure, and Dynamics of an Emerging Scholarly Specialty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olijnyk, Nicholas Victor

    2014-01-01

    The central aim of the current research is to explore and describe the profile, dynamics, and structure of the information security specialty. This study's objectives are guided by four research questions: 1. What are the salient features of information security as a specialty? 2. How has the information security specialty emerged and evolved from…

  15. Precision Security: Integrating Video Surveillance with Surrounding Environment Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfeng Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Video surveillance plays a vital role in maintaining the social security although, until now, large uncertainty still exists in danger understanding and recognition, which can be partly attributed to intractable environment changes in the backgrounds. This article presents a brain-inspired computing of attention value of surrounding environment changes (EC with a processes-based cognition model by introducing a ratio value λ of EC-implications within considered periods. Theoretical models for computation of warning level of EC-implications to the universal video recognition efficiency (quantified as time cost of implication-ratio variations from λk to λk+1, k=1,2,… are further established. Imbedding proposed models into the online algorithms is suggested as a future research priority towards precision security for critical applications and, furthermore, schemes for a practical implementation of such integration are also preliminarily discussed.

  16. The Arctic: between climatic change, economic development and security issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Degeorges, Damien

    2016-01-01

    The Arctic is a perfect illustration of how climate change is impacting international relations, in particular because it triggers new economic and safety issues. Since every major economic power has interests in the region, it has now become the stage of many rivalries, including between China and the United-States. Whether it is because its extreme climate conditions or the growing international pressure, the Arctic sets a new challenge for investors: securing a sustainable economic growth in the region

  17. Dynamic Security Assessment of Danish Power System Based on Decision Trees: Today and Tomorrow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rather, Zakir Hussain; Liu, Leo; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    The research work presented in this paper analyzes the impact of wind energy, phasing out of central power plants and cross border power exchange on dynamic security of Danish Power System. Contingency based decision tree (DT) approach is used to assess the dynamic security of present and future...

  18. Energy security and climate change : a Canadian primer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonick, C.

    2007-01-01

    This book addresses the reality of climate change and peak oil, and emphasizes the need to make the transition from carbon energies to renewable energies. The book is a compilation of 18 leading authorities' work on energy use and its impact on the environment. Various solutions and sustainable alternatives to carbon energy are proposed. The book links fossil fuels, including oil sands, as a major cause of climate change. The book also addresses other topical issues, such as the nuclear revival, the U.S. energy act and electricity, carbon trading, and energy security in Canada. The authors emphasize the need to act in a proactive way to ensure a sustainable future. refs.

  19. Enabling Dynamic Security Management of Networked Systems via Device-Embedded Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ganger, Gregory

    2000-01-01

    This report contains the technical content of a recent funding proposal. In it, we propose a new approach to network security in which each individual device erects its own security perimeter and defends its own critical resources...

  20. Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Social Security Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilal Bagis

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Turkish social insurance system has been feverishly debated for years, particularly through its burden on the economy. The most recent reform is an attempt to neutralize the deterioration within the social security system and its effects on the economy. After the recent reform, ‘the way that retirement benefits are calculated’ is changed unfavorably for workers and the minimum age for retirement is increased. In particular, for an agent with 25 years of social security tax payments, the replacement rate is down from 65 percent to 50 percent. On the other hand, retirement age is up from 60 to 65. The aim of this paper is to investigate the macroeconomic effects of these changes using an OLG model. The author’s findings indicate that labor supply, output and capital stock increase when changes above are applied to the benchmark economy calibrated to the Turkish economy data in 2005. A critical change with the current reform is that the marginal benefit of working has become uniform over ages. In a simulation exercise, the marginal retirement benefit in the benchmark economy is changed to be uniform over ages while keeping the size of social security system unchanged. As a result, the benefit of retiring at a later period increases. However, uniform distribution of the marginal benefits itself decreases both the capital stock and output of the economy. Increasing the retirement age, on the other hand, has positive effects on the economy since agents obtain retirement benefits for fewer years and at an older age. Age increase has substantial positive effects on the labor supply, the capital stock, and the output.

  1. Markets, Climate Change and Food Security in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Hintermann, Beat; Higgins, Nathaniel

    2009-01-01

    West Africa is one of the most food insecure regions of the world. Sharply increased food and energy prices in 2008 brought the role of markets in food access and availability around the world into the spotlight, particularly in urban areas. The period of high prices had the immediate consequence of sharply increasing the number of hungry people in the region without boosting farmer incomes significantly. In this article, the interaction between markets, food prices, agricultural technology and development is explored in the context of West Africa. To improve food security in West Africa, sustained commitment to investment in the agriculture sector will be needed to provide some protection against global swings in both production and world markets. Climate change mitigation programs are likely to force global energy and commodity price increases in the coming decades, putting pressure on regions like West Africa to produce more food locally to ensure stability in food security for the most vulnerable.

  2. Climate Change after the International : Rethinking Security, Territory and Authority

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripple, Johannes

    2005-01-01

    What does a politics after the international mean? Many strands of contemporary scholarship converge on the image of the international as obsolete, but strongly diverge on the contours of the kinds of politics that are superseding it. The modern state has been pivotal to the meaning of security, territory and authority - concepts central to the idea of the international - but they do not necessarily have to be tied to the state. This thesis offers a critique of International Relations theory combined with a study of climate change. A departure in 'process philosophy' facilitate a rethinking of security, territory and authority as activities rather than things, as verbs rather than nouns. The author shows that a multiplicity of practices of securitization, territorialization, and authorization are visible in the climate issue. The book goes beyond, and reflects upon, the traditional study of 'International Environmental Politics' as a particular subfield of International Relations

  3. National security and the accelerating risk of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Gunn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Since 2006, retired U.S. admirals and generals have been examining our changing physical world and assessing the impact of those changes on the security of the nation. A Military Advisory Board (MAB, convened by the CNA Corporation, a non-profit research and analysis institution that operates the Center for Naval Analyses and Institute for Public Research has issued two reports on the changing climate’s national security implications. The first report, published in 2007, stated that the changing climate would be destabilizing in many parts of the world. Climate change, in fact, would be a “threat multiplier”, the report claimed, and result in new and more urgent calls for the American military to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR as well as help sustain order and ensure conditions that would permit trade and prosperity worldwide. The MAB recommended urgent action by the Defense Department to prepare for new missions in new places; and that the Defense Department explicitly recognize missions stemming from the changing climate. CNA’s MAB then published three reports on energy, relating to climate change, one each on: the coming age of renewables, the nation’s energy dependence, and the future of energy in terms of America’s international competitiveness (CNA-MAB, 2009; CNA-MAB, 2010; CNA-MAB, 2011. In 2014, the Military Advisory Board noted that the climate was changing more quickly than had been forecast in 2007. Undertaking a new climate study, the board concluded that more needed to be done, and done quickly, to prepare for and confront the “catalyst for conflict” that the board now saw in climate change. Guest Editors’ Note: The following commentary derives from a presentation by Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, U.S. Navy (Ret., delivered by invitation at the American Association for the Advancement of Science Meeting, San Jose, California, February 13, 2015. Prior to his advisory role for the U.S. Military and

  4. Contributing to Food Security in the Context of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    Since the laboratories of the IAEA Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications were established in Seibersdorf in 1962, the world’s population has grown from 3.14 billion to 7.15 billion, which, combined with continuously increasing industrialization and economic development, has led to greater global food demand. This has placed substantial stress on natural resources as well as the agricultural production chain. The challenges to food safety and security have also been amplified by the impacts of climate change, which have global ramifications, as noted in the March 2014 report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change impacts include higher temperatures, drought, more frequent extreme weather events and increased soil salinity which can have severe effects on agricultural production. Helping Member States adapt to and mitigate these impacts is a main focus of the five laboratories of the Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture in Seibersdorf. These laboratories are dedicated to increasing food security and safety using nuclear science and technology

  5. Dynamic Security Assessment Of Computer Networks In Siem-Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vladimirovna Doynikova

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper suggests an approach to the security assessment of computer networks. The approach is based on attack graphs and intended for Security Information and Events Management systems (SIEM-systems. Key feature of the approach consists in the application of the multilevel security metrics taxonomy. The taxonomy allows definition of the system profile according to the input data used for the metrics calculation and techniques of security metrics calculation. This allows specification of the security assessment in near real time, identification of previous and future attacker steps, identification of attackers goals and characteristics. A security assessment system prototype is implemented for the suggested approach. Analysis of its operation is conducted for several attack scenarios.

  6. Changes in attachment security and mindfulness as predictors of changes in depression and general anxiety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martin, David; Gillath, Omri; Deboeck, Pascal; Lang, K.M.; Kerr, Barb

    2017-01-01

    Two studies examined the role short-term changes in adult attachment and mindfulness play in depression and general anxiety. Study 1, using a sample of college students (n = 121) who were not engaged in any clinical intervention, showed that changes in attachment anxiety and security, but not in

  7. 10 CFR 95.19 - Changes to security practices and procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Changes to security practices and procedures. 95.19 Section 95.19 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) FACILITY SECURITY CLEARANCE AND..., also to the Director, Division of Security Operations, Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response...

  8. Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Lu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

  9. Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Guri, E-mail: guri.bang@cicero.uio.n [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

    2010-04-15

    Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.

  10. Energy security and climate change concerns. Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Guri [CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, P.O. Box 1129, 0318 Oslo (Norway)

    2010-04-15

    Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress - the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo. (author)

  11. Energy security and climate change concerns: Triggers for energy policy change in the United States?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Guri

    2010-01-01

    Why is it so difficult to change the energy policy status quo away from dependence on fossil fuels when the need to become less dependent on imported oil seems to be generally accepted by US politicians? In recent energy debates in the House and Senate, references to climate change and energy security were frequently used as a rationale for the need for energy policy change. But policymakers were not in agreement about what policy programs would be the best alternative or what goals the programs were to achieve in terms of addressing energy security or climate change, or both at the same time. The paper explores whether putting energy security and climate change on the decision making agenda simultaneously helped craft a political compromise in the 110th Congress-the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and points out how the political institutions of the US structured interaction and affected policy outcome, and ultimately the chance of changing the energy policy status quo.

  12. A Secure Dynamic Identity and Chaotic Maps Based User Authentication and Key Agreement Scheme for e-Healthcare Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-Ta; Lee, Cheng-Chi; Weng, Chi-Yao; Chen, Song-Jhih

    2016-11-01

    Secure user authentication schemes in many e-Healthcare applications try to prevent unauthorized users from intruding the e-Healthcare systems and a remote user and a medical server can establish session keys for securing the subsequent communications. However, many schemes does not mask the users' identity information while constructing a login session between two or more parties, even though personal privacy of users is a significant topic for e-Healthcare systems. In order to preserve personal privacy of users, dynamic identity based authentication schemes are hiding user's real identity during the process of network communications and only the medical server knows login user's identity. In addition, most of the existing dynamic identity based authentication schemes ignore the inputs verification during login condition and this flaw may subject to inefficiency in the case of incorrect inputs in the login phase. Regarding the use of secure authentication mechanisms for e-Healthcare systems, this paper presents a new dynamic identity and chaotic maps based authentication scheme and a secure data protection approach is employed in every session to prevent illegal intrusions. The proposed scheme can not only quickly detect incorrect inputs during the phases of login and password change but also can invalidate the future use of a lost/stolen smart card. Compared the functionality and efficiency with other authentication schemes recently, the proposed scheme satisfies desirable security attributes and maintains acceptable efficiency in terms of the computational overheads for e-Healthcare systems.

  13. Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

    2012-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and

  14. Resistance as Organizational Change Dynamic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plotnikof, Mie

    2017-01-01

    A current political concern in many OECD countries is the co-creation of new welfare policy and practice through collaboration between multiple stakeholders in order to innovate public services with fewer resources (Ansell & Torfing, 2014; Christensen & Lægreid, 2011). Research on such changing...... collaborative governance processes explores both potentials and problems, when different stakeholders such as politicians, administrators, frontline staff and citizens are engaged in welfare innovation (Osborne, 2009; Ansell & Gash, 2008; Griggs & Sullivan, 2014). Whereas the potential of public innovation...... and value-creation are intriguing to democratic ideals, the challenges include cultural diversity, conflicts, misunderstandings and inefficiency. Nonetheless, the literature stresses that despite the challenges, the demand for collaborative governance in welfare policy is needed now more than ever (Bryson...

  15. Analysis of Dynamic Complexity of the Cyber Security Ecosystem of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angélica Flórez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two proposals for the analysis of the complexity of the Cyber security Ecosystem of Colombia (CEC. This analysis shows the available knowledge about entities engaged in cyber security in Colombia and the relationships between them, which allow an understanding of the synergy between the different existing components. The complexity of the CEC is detailed from the view of the Influence Diagram of System Dynamics and the Domain Diagram of Software Engineering. The resulting model makes cyber security evident as a strategic component of national security.

  16. Dynamic Construction Scheme for Virtualization Security Service in Software-Defined Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhaowen; Tao, Dan; Wang, Zhenji

    2017-04-21

    For a Software Defined Network (SDN), security is an important factor affecting its large-scale deployment. The existing security solutions for SDN mainly focus on the controller itself, which has to handle all the security protection tasks by using the programmability of the network. This will undoubtedly involve a heavy burden for the controller. More devastatingly, once the controller itself is attacked, the entire network will be paralyzed. Motivated by this, this paper proposes a novel security protection architecture for SDN. We design a security service orchestration center in the control plane of SDN, and this center physically decouples from the SDN controller and constructs SDN security services. We adopt virtualization technology to construct a security meta-function library, and propose a dynamic security service composition construction algorithm based on web service composition technology. The rule-combining method is used to combine security meta-functions to construct security services which meet the requirements of users. Moreover, the RETE algorithm is introduced to improve the efficiency of the rule-combining method. We evaluate our solutions in a realistic scenario based on OpenStack. Substantial experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our solutions that contribute to achieve the effective security protection with a small burden of the SDN controller.

  17. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  18. Institutional Change, Strategic Orientation and Dynamic Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Ming Hua

    2012-01-01

    research streams including the resource-based view, institutional and organizational theory frameworks, as well as the dynamic capabilities perspective, we suggest that institutional change in China serves a formative role in the development of firm strategic orientation and dynamic capabilities leading......The phenomenon of systematic institutional change in many developing countries can produce enduring transformations in the strategic orientation and organization of domestic firms. Such changes may impact the formation of their dynamic capabilities and adaptive learning which can translate...... into visible differences in their internationalization strategies and pathways. Using China as an illustrative example of a transitioning economy experiencing upsurges in outward FDI, this study develops a theoretical framework to explain how institutional transformation at various levels of government led...

  19. Water security, risk, and economic growth: Insights from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim W.; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2017-08-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been noteworthy in the development of most civilizations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple economic sectors, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy and (ii) by reducing acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate risks and promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior conceptual work on the relationship between water-related investments and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical systems model of water-related investment, risk, and growth. In cases where initial water security is low, initial investment in water-related assets enables growth. Without such investment, losses due to water-related hazards exert a drag on economic growth and may create a poverty trap. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the exposure of productive water-related assets to water-related risk. Exogenous changes in water-related risk can potentially push an economy away from a growth path toward a poverty trap. Our investigation shows that an inverted-U-shaped investment relation between the level of investment in water security and the current level of water security leads to faster rates of growth than the alternatives that we consider here, and that this relation is responsible for the "S"-curve that is posited in the literature. These results illustrate the importance of accounting for environmental and health risks in economic models and offer insights for the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, in the face

  20. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  1. Social security, dynamic efficiency and self-control problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bucciol, A.

    2008-01-01

    We develop an OLG model with uncertainty on labor income and death age to study the welfare implications of unfunded Social Security programs in an economy where agents are affected by temptation à la Gul and Pesendorfer (2001, Econometrica 69, 1403). Tempted agents give additional value to the

  2. Social security in developing countries : operation and dynamics of social security mechanisms in rural Swaziland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leliveld, A.H.M.

    1994-01-01

    This study, which is based on field research carried out in Swaziland from October 1989 to December 1990, starts with an introductory chapter followed by three theoretical chapters on social security in developing countries. The content of these chapters is illustrated with an extensive case study

  3. Debt security market in lithuania: changes and tendencies

    OpenAIRE

    Zumaraitė, Birutė

    2007-01-01

    Security market in economically strong countries has deep developing traditions and acts strong role in financial system. Debt securities market helps to allocate the financial recourses between separate institutions. Also the strong role in financial system plays debts securities market, especially government bonds that help to form the lending resources effectively. Interest rate of government bonds is the main point, which turns rates of lending and borrowing. The incomes, which are gained...

  4. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

    2007-01-01

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

  5. Cyber security in the workplace: Understanding and \\ud promoting behaviour change

    OpenAIRE

    Blythe, John

    2013-01-01

    Cyber security and the role employees play in securing information are major concerns for businesses. The aim of this research is to explore employee security behaviours and design interventions that can motivate behaviour change. Previous research has focused on exploring factors that influence information security policy compliance; however there are several limitations with this approach. Our work-to-date has explored the behaviours that constitute ‘information security’ and potential infl...

  6. PLANNING INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES IN A DYNAMIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca Pavel

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The hypothesis introduced by this article is that, in order to perform intelligence missions and to obtain valuable intelligence for the consumers it is necessary to implement processes and tools to support planning activities. Today's challenges consist rather in the ability of intelligence organizations to identify and initiate new connections, processes and communication flows with other partners operating in the security environment than to plan in their own name secret operations. From this point of view, planning activities should focus on new procedures, at a much more extensive level in order to align institutional efforts beyond the boundaries of their own organization and the national community of information. Also, in order to coordinate intelligence activities, strategic planning must be anchored into a complex analysis of the potential impact of existing and possible future global phenomena that shape the security environment and thus identify better ways of improving results.

  7. The Social Dynamics of Changing Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Jenny; Forde, Christine

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we develop a socio-dynamic account for the impact of continuing professional development (CPD) on practice. The model we propose for changing practice challenges the essentially individualised explanation of practical learning offered by a number of writers and researchers in the field of CPD such as Joyce and Showers (1988), Eraut…

  8. Food security, irrigation, climate change, and water scarcity in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, T. W.; Taheripour, F.; Gopalakrishnan, B. N.; Sahin, S.; Escurra, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper uses an advanced CGE model (Taheripour et al., 2013) coupled with hydrological projections of future water scarcity and biophysical data on likely crop yields under climate change to examine how water scarcity, climate change, and trade jointly alter land use changes across the Indian subcontinent. Climate shocks to rainfed and irrigated yields in 2030 are based on the p-DSSAT crop model, RCP 2.6, as reported under the AgMIP project (Rosenzweig et al., 2013), accessed through GEOSHARE (Villoria et al, 2014). Results show that, when water scarcity is ignored, irrigated areas grow in the wake of climate change as the returns to irrigation rise faster than for rainfed uses of land within a given agro-ecological zone. When non-agricultural competition for future water use, as well as anticipated supply side limitations are brought into play (Rosegrant et al., 2013), the opportunity cost of water rises across all river basins, with the increase ranging from 12% (Luni) to 44% (Brahmaputra). As a consequence, irrigated crop production is curtailed in most regions (Figure 1), with the largest reductions coming in the most water intensive crops, namely rice and wheat. By reducing irrigated area, which tends to have much higher yields, the combined effects of water scarcity and climate impacts require an increase in total cropped area, which rises by about 240,000 ha. The majority of this area expansion occurs in the Ganges, Indus, and Brahmari river basins. Overall crop output falls by about 2 billion, relative to the 2030 baseline, with imports rising by about 570 million. The combined effects of climate change and water scarcity for irrigation also have macro-economic consequences, resulting in a 0.28% reduction in GDP and an increase in the consumer price index by about 0.4% in 2030, compared the baseline. The national welfare impact on India amounts to roughly 3 billion (at 2007 prices) in 2030. Assuming a 3% social discount rate, the net present value of the

  9. Food and water security in a changing arctic climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Daniel M; Gerlach, S Craig; Loring, Philip; Tidwell, Amy C; Chambers, Molly C

    2007-01-01

    In the Arctic, permafrost extends up to 500 m below the ground surface, and it is generally just the top metre that thaws in summer. Lakes, rivers, and wetlands on the arctic landscape are normally not connected with groundwater in the same way that they are in temperate regions. When the surface is frozen in winter, only lakes deeper than 2 m and rivers with significant flow retain liquid water. Surface water is largely abundant in summer, when it serves as a breeding ground for fish, birds, and mammals. In winter, many mammals and birds are forced to migrate out of the Arctic. Fish must seek out lakes or rivers deep enough to provide good overwintering habitat. Humans in the Arctic rely on surface water in many ways. Surface water meets domestic needs such as drinking, cooking, and cleaning as well as subsistence and industrial demands. Indigenous communities depend on sea ice and waterways for transportation across the landscape and access to traditional country foods. The minerals, mining, and oil and gas industries also use large quantities of surface water during winter to build ice roads and maintain infrastructure. As demand for this limited, but heavily-relied-upon resource continues to increase, it is now more critical than ever to understand the impacts of climate change on food and water security in the Arctic

  10. A dynamically weighted multi-modal biometric security system

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Brown, Dane

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The face, fingerprint and palmprint feature vectors are automatically extracted and dynamically selected for fusion at the feature-level, toward an improved human identification accuracy. The feature-level has a higher potential accuracy than...

  11. The Dynamics of the Option-Adjusted Spread of Brady Bond Securities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Otavio Calôba

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Brady bond securities represent a substantial fraction of emerging markets countries internationally tradable sovereign debt. The credit risk spread above and beyond the U.S. treasury curve for these securities is usually large in size and volatility. Moreover, most Brady bonds carry embedded options that lead to the existence of an Option-Adjusted Spread, OAS, which increase their risk profiles. In this paper we present an empirical study of the dynamics of Brady bonds OAS using a heath, Jarrow and Morton term structure pricing model. The dynamics of the spread shows that the proper risk management and pricing of these securities require the consideration of volatility in addition to the magnitude of the sovereign risk spread. That is, the proper risk measure for these securities would be the pair (OAS, OAS Volatility. A study of implied default probabilities is also presented. Our analysis is illustrated with bonds from Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Poland, Bulgaria and the Philippines.

  12. Food-web dynamics under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, L.; Takahashi, M.; Hartvig, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Climate change affects ecological communities through its impact on the physiological performance of individuals. However, the population dynamic of species well inside their thermal niche is also determined by competitors, prey and predators, in addition to being influenced by temperature changes....... We use a trait-based food-web model to examine how the interplay between the direct physiological effects from temperature and the indirect effects due to changing interactions between populations shapes the ecological consequences of climate change for populations and for entire communities. Our...... climatically well-adapted species may be brought to extinction by the changed food-web topology. Our results highlight that the impact of climate change on specific populations is largely unpredictable, and apparently well-adapted species may be severely impacted...

  13. The changing face of Hanford security 1990--1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thielman, J.

    1995-01-01

    The meltdown of the Cold War was a shock to the systems built to cope with it. At the DOE's Hanford Site in Washington State, a world-class safeguards and security system was suddenly out of step with the times. The level of protection for nuclear and classified materials was exceptional. But the cost was high and the defense facilities that funded security were closing down. The defense mission had created an umbrella of security over the sprawling Hanford Site. Helicopters designed to ferry special response teams to any trouble spot on the 1,456 square-kilometer site made the umbrella analogy almost literally true. Facilities were grouped into areas, fenced off like a military base, and entrance required a badge check for everyone. Within the fence, additional rings of protection were set up around security interests or targets. The security was effective, but costly to operate and inconvenient for employees and visitors alike. Moreover, the umbrella meant that virtually all employees needed a security clearance just to get to work, whether they worked on classified or unclassified projects. Clearly, some fundamental rethinking of safeguards and security was needed. The effort to meet that challenge is the story of transition at Hanford and documented here

  14. Dynamically Reconfigurable Metadevice Employing Nanostructured Phase-Change Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhihua; Evans, Philip G; Haglund, Richard F; Valentine, Jason G

    2017-08-09

    Mastering dynamic free-space spectral control and modulation in the near-infrared (NIR) and optical regimes remains a challenging task that is hindered by the available functional materials at high frequencies. In this work, we have realized an efficient metadevice capable of spectral control by minimizing the thermal mass of a vanadium dioxide phase-change material (PCM) and placing the PCM at the feed gap of a bow-tie field antenna. The device has an experimentally measured tuning range of up to 360 nm in the NIR and a modulation depth of 33% at the resonant wavelength. The metadevice is configured for integrated and local heating, leading to faster switching and more precise spatial control compared with devices based on phase-change thin films. We envisage that the combined advantages of this device will open new opportunities for signal processing, memory, security, and holography at optical frequencies.

  15. Dynamic Security Assessment of Western Danish Power System Based on Ensemble Decision Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Leo; Bak, Claus Leth; Chen, Zhe

    2014-01-01

    With the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources and other forms of dispersed generation, more and more uncertainties will be brought to the dynamic security assessment (DSA) of power systems. This paper proposes an approach that uses ensemble decision trees (EDT) for online DSA. Fed...... with online wide-area measurement data, it is capable of not only predicting the security states of current operating conditions (OC) with high accuracy, but also indicating the confidence of the security states 1 minute ahead of the real time by an outlier identification method. The results of EDT together...

  16. Dynamic Model of Islamic Hybrid Securities: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia Islamic Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaafar Pyeman

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital structure selection is fundamentally important in corporate financial management as it influence on mutually return and risk to stakeholders. Despite of Malaysia’s position as one of the major players of Islamic Financial Market, there are still lack of studies has been conducted on the capital structure of shariah compliant firms especially related to hybrid securities. The objective of this study is to determine the hybrid securities issuance model among the shariah compliant firms in Malaysia. As such, this study is to expand the literature review by providing comprehensive analysis on the hybrid capital structure and to develop dynamic Islamic hybrid securities model for shariah compliant firms. We use panel data of 50 companies that have been issuing the hybrid securities from the year of 2004- 2012. The outcomes of the studies are based on the dynamic model GMM estimation for the determinants of hybrid securities. Based on our model, risk and growth are considered as the most determinant factors for issuing convertible bond and loan stock. These results suggest that, the firms that have high risk but having good growth prospect will choose hybrid securities of convertible bond. The model also support the backdoor equity listing hypothesis by Stein (1992 where the hybrid securities enable the profitable firms to venture into positive NPV project by issuing convertible bond as it offer lower coupon rate as compare to the normal debt rate

  17. The role of grasslands in food security and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Mara, F P

    2012-11-01

    Grasslands are a major part of the global ecosystem, covering 37 % of the earth's terrestrial area. For a variety of reasons, mostly related to overgrazing and the resulting problems of soil erosion and weed encroachment, many of the world's natural grasslands are in poor condition and showing signs of degradation. This review examines their contribution to global food supply and to combating climate change. Grasslands make a significant contribution to food security through providing part of the feed requirements of ruminants used for meat and milk production. Globally, this is more important in food energy terms than pig meat and poultry meat. Grasslands are considered to have the potential to play a key role in greenhouse gas mitigation, particularly in terms of global carbon storage and further carbon sequestration. It is estimated that grazing land management and pasture improvement (e.g. through managing grazing intensity, improved productivity, etc) have a global technical mitigation potential of almost 1·5 Gt CO(2) equivalent in 2030, with additional mitigation possible from restoration of degraded lands. Milk and meat production from grassland systems in temperate regions has similar emissions of carbon dioxide per kilogram of product as mixed farming systems in temperate regions, and, if carbon sinks in grasslands are taken into account, grassland-based production systems can be as efficient as high-input systems from a greenhouse gas perspective. Grasslands are important for global food supply, contributing to ruminant milk and meat production. Extra food will need to come from the world's existing agricultural land base (including grasslands) as the total area of agricultural land has remained static since 1991. Ruminants are efficient converters of grass into humanly edible energy and protein and grassland-based food production can produce food with a comparable carbon footprint as mixed systems. Grasslands are a very important store of carbon, and

  18. Spatio-temporal dynamics of security investments in an interdependent risk environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafi, Kamran; Bender, Axel; Zhong, Weicai; Abbass, Hussein A.

    2012-10-01

    In a globalised world where risks spread through contagion, the decision of an entity to invest in securing its premises from stochastic risks no longer depends solely on its own actions but also on the actions of other interacting entities in the system. This phenomenon is commonly seen in many domains including airline, logistics and computer security and is referred to as Interdependent Security (IDS). An IDS game models this decision problem from a game-theoretic perspective and deals with the behavioural dynamics of risk-reduction investments in such settings. This paper enhances this model and investigates the spatio-temporal aspects of the IDS games. The spatio-temporal dynamics are studied using simple replicator dynamics on a variety of network structures and for various security cost tradeoffs that lead to different Nash equilibria in an IDS game. The simulation results show that the neighbourhood configuration has a greater effect on the IDS game dynamics than network structure. An in-depth empirical analysis of game dynamics is carried out on regular graphs, which leads to the articulation of necessary and sufficient conditions for dominance in IDS games under spatial constraints.

  19. The Dynamics Of Food Security In Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Degye Goshu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the dynamics of food supply per capita and undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa SSA for a panel of 42 countries. The dataset was constructed from the FAO and the World Bank global databases for four rounds in five-year intervals. Ordinal measures of national food supply status were generated from daily calorie supply per capita of SSA countries. Regional and inter-temporal dynamics of food supply status very low low medium transition rates and the associated forces underpinning this dynamic process were analyzed and stylized by parametric and non-parametric measures. Economic and socio-demographic factors and regional heterogeneities determining the dynamics of food supply situation in SSA were identified by random-effects ordered probit model. The empirical findings indicate that the food supply level of SSA countries was enhanced by agricultural production and industrial value added as a proxy for structural transformation. However it was adversely affected by military expenditure inflation level of consumer prices proportion of rural population age dependency ratio and regional heterogeneities. The likelihood of SSA countries to face incidence of very low low and medium calorie per capita supply was 23 percent 61 percent and 16 percent respectively. To improve the level of food supply per capita and thereby to reduce food poverty situation SSA countries and other stakeholders need to focus on policies designed to enhance economic growth through agricultural production creation of employment opportunities with structural transformation enhancing health care services improving their demographic structure through family planning and controlling national and regional shocks and instabilities.

  20. Security of material. The changing context of the IAEA's programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, Anita

    2001-01-01

    When the IAEA established its programme on the Security of Material about five years ago, the prospect that nuclear or other radioactive materials could fall into the wrong hands was a main concern. Among the major driving forces behind the Agency's action then was an alarming increase in reported cases of illicit nuclear trafficking in the early and mid-1990s, and the recognition that States needed better and more coordinated assistance in their efforts to combat the problem. Today, the dimensions and perceptions of nuclear security are being shaped by additional driving forces, specifically the spectre of nuclear terrorism. The terrorist attacks on the United States in September 2001 have elevated issues of security to unprecedented heights of international concern and they have prompted a broad-based global response. The attacks made it clear that terrorism has new and far-reaching international dimensions and that its aim of inflicting mass casualties is a serious threat for all States. In the nuclear sphere, the IAEA has taken a leading role in international efforts directed at combating nuclear terrorism. Initiatives taken by the Agency aim to upgrade levels of security for nuclear facilities and the protection of nuclear and other radioactive materials. Toward these ends, the IAEA Board of Governors is considering proposed measures for strengthening the Agency's activities relevant to preventing nuclear terrorism. In this new and challenging context, it is worth reviewing some fundamental aspects of the IAEA programme on Security of Material as it has been developed over the years. The programme is part of a wider framework of Agency activities related to nuclear security, safety, and safeguards. In reviewing the programme's evolution, this article principally focuses on the major components and elements of the planned 2002-2003 programme, while pointing to directions ahead in light of additional measures being considered for prevention of nuclear terrorism

  1. An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Juneseuk; Shin, Wan-Seon; Lee, Changyong

    2013-01-01

    An energy security management model using quality function deployment (QFD) and system dynamics (SD) is suggested for application in public policymaking in developing economies. Through QFD, experts are guided toward identifying key energy security components, including indicators and policies, and in making these components consistent, focused, and customized for a particular country. Using these components as inputs, we construct an intermediate complex system dynamics model with a minimal number of crucial interactions. Key policies are simulated and evaluated in terms of the improvement of key indicators. Even with little data, our approach provides a coherent, useful, and customized energy security management model to help policymakers more effectively manage national energy security. To demonstrate its advantages, the model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example. - Highlights: ► We suggest an energy security management model for developing economies. ► We identify a consistent set of key components, indicators and policies by using QFD. ► A coherent and practical system dynamics model based on QFD's output is constructed. ► The model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example

  2. Landuse change identification using SPOT 6 for food security analysis of Denpasar City, Bali Province, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supardan, N.; Panularsih, M.; Darmawan, M.

    2018-05-01

    Land use change was common in Indonesia, including Bali, especially land conversion from paddy field to other uses. Based on statistics data of Bali 2015, the area of rice fields continues to decline every year, both irrigated and rain-fed rice fields. This study was conducted to analyze land use change and its impact on food security in Denpasar. Land use change dynamics can be observed by multi-temporal land use changes. GIS analysis was performed to obtain spatial land use changes in the study area by using topographic map 1: 25,000 with data sources 2002 and land cover classification of SPOT 6 image acquisition 2015. The results of GIS analysis indicate that settlement and built-up area increased by 1,736 hectares and the area of rice field decreased by 1,695 hectares during 13 years. The increasing of settlement rate was 133,5 ha / year and the decreasing of rice field was 130 ha / year. Meanwhile, the result of food availability analysis shows that the Denpasar City still deficit of rice amount 48,997 tons in 2014, and 69,175 tons in 2015 or only fulfill about 45% of food requirement.

  3. A secure and efficient audit mechanism for dynamic shared data in cloud storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Ohmin; Koo, Dongyoung; Shin, Yongjoo; Yoon, Hyunsoo

    2014-01-01

    With popularization of cloud services, multiple users easily share and update their data through cloud storage. For data integrity and consistency in the cloud storage, the audit mechanisms were proposed. However, existing approaches have some security vulnerabilities and require a lot of computational overheads. This paper proposes a secure and efficient audit mechanism for dynamic shared data in cloud storage. The proposed scheme prevents a malicious cloud service provider from deceiving an auditor. Moreover, it devises a new index table management method and reduces the auditing cost by employing less complex operations. We prove the resistance against some attacks and show less computation cost and shorter time for auditing when compared with conventional approaches. The results present that the proposed scheme is secure and efficient for cloud storage services managing dynamic shared data.

  4. A Secure and Efficient Audit Mechanism for Dynamic Shared Data in Cloud Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    With popularization of cloud services, multiple users easily share and update their data through cloud storage. For data integrity and consistency in the cloud storage, the audit mechanisms were proposed. However, existing approaches have some security vulnerabilities and require a lot of computational overheads. This paper proposes a secure and efficient audit mechanism for dynamic shared data in cloud storage. The proposed scheme prevents a malicious cloud service provider from deceiving an auditor. Moreover, it devises a new index table management method and reduces the auditing cost by employing less complex operations. We prove the resistance against some attacks and show less computation cost and shorter time for auditing when compared with conventional approaches. The results present that the proposed scheme is secure and efficient for cloud storage services managing dynamic shared data. PMID:24959630

  5. The design of a dynamic security system at the XXIII Summer Olympics at Los Angeles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruckner, D.G.

    1985-01-01

    The security requirements of the XXIII Summer Olympic Games at Los Angeles provided a challenge unparalleled in the history of the modern games. This paper discusses the dynamics involved and suggests that the principles used are applicable to many of today's security environments. The success of the Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) employed at each of the three Olympic villages and at the Piper Technical Center is a known fact. How it was accomplished is addressed in a straightforward, systematic way. The paper also recognizes the contributions made by the security community, law enforcement agencies, the government, military, the security industry and RandD organizations. It was a team effort that reflected the spirit of the games and the American ''can-do'' attitude

  6. Technology transfer of dynamic IT outsourcing requires security measures in SLAs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Dickmann (Frank); M. Brodhun (Maximilian); J. Falkner (Jürgen); T.A. Knoch (Tobias); U. Sax (Ulrich)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractFor the present efforts in dynamic IT outsourcing environments like Grid or Cloud computing security and trust are ongoing issues. SLAs are a proved remedy to build up trust in outsourcing relations. Therefore, it is necessary to determine whether SLAs can improve trust from the

  7. Global change, urban livelihoods and food security; presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murambadoro, M

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Food security research and policy have focused more on the rural poor where the incidence and depth of poverty is more pronounced. Urban livelihoods are based on cash income and many people in urban areas are employed in the informal sector which...

  8. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  9. Changing Homeland Security: What Should Homeland Security Leaders Be Talking About?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-07-01

    constructionism , middle-of-the-road moderation, and radical reconstructionism.14 BELLA VIT A, CH A NGI NG HOMELA ND SECU R ITY 6...nation by paying more attention to the social and economic conditions that give rise to and support “premeditated, politically motivated violence...threat.24 Left and right wing domestic terrorists are still active.25 Homeland security needs both short- and long-term perspectives. From a social

  10. Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

    2012-03-01

    Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Soil Overconsolidation Changes Caused by Dynamic Replacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotr, Kanty; Sławomir, Kwiecień; Jerzy, Sękowski

    2017-10-01

    In the dynamic replacement method (DR) the soil is improved by initially dropping a large weight (typically 8-20 t) pounder from a significant height up to 25 m. The created crater is filled with a stronger material (gravel, rubble, stone aggregate, debris), and the pounder is dropped once or multiple times again. The construction of dynamic replacement pillars influences the parameters of the adjacent soil. It results from the energy generated by dropping a pounder into the soil. In the current practice, these changes are not taken into the account during the design. This paper focuses on the changes of overconsolidation ratio (OCR) and in situ coefficient of lateral earth pressure (K) values estimated base on cone penetration test (CPTU) and Dilatometric test (DMT) performed at a test site. A single column was constructed and the ground around the column was examined using CPTU and DMT, performed at different distances from the column centre (2, 3, 4 and 6 m) and at different time intervals (during construction and 1, 8, 30 days later). The column was constructed in so-called transition soils (between cohesive and non-cohesive). While interpreting the results of the research, the authors addressed the matter of choosing the procedure of OCR and K indication for transition soils (in this case described as silts and/or sandy silts). Overconsolidation changes may differ depending on the chosen analysis procedure (for cohesive or non-cohesive soils). On the basis of the analysis presented in the paper and the observation of soil (acknowledged as cohesive according to macroscopic observations) during column excavation, it was decided that for more detailed analyses methods dedicated to cohesive soils should be applied. Generally, it can be stated that although the changes were complex, DR pillar formation process resulted in the increase of these parameters. The average increases of OCR and K values were 25% and 10% respectively. The post installation values are not

  12. An adaptive cryptographic accelerator for network storage security on dynamically reconfigurable platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Li; Liu, Jing-Ning; Feng, Dan; Tong, Wei

    2008-12-01

    Existing security solutions in network storage environment perform poorly because cryptographic operations (encryption and decryption) implemented in software can dramatically reduce system performance. In this paper we propose a cryptographic hardware accelerator on dynamically reconfigurable platform for the security of high performance network storage system. We employ a dynamic reconfigurable platform based on a FPGA to implement a PowerPCbased embedded system, which executes cryptographic algorithms. To reduce the reconfiguration latency, we apply prefetch scheduling. Moreover, the processing elements could be dynamically configured to support different cryptographic algorithms according to the request received by the accelerator. In the experiment, we have implemented AES (Rijndael) and 3DES cryptographic algorithms in the reconfigurable accelerator. Our proposed reconfigurable cryptographic accelerator could dramatically increase the performance comparing with the traditional software-based network storage systems.

  13. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  14. A New KFOR: Changes for International Security in Kosovo

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-15

    Prime Minister Rexhepi plunged into the crowd at Veterinik to urge an end, and PDK leader Thaci made a strong television appeal. The hysterical energy of...particular -- actually feel less secure. Ibid, 12. 16 Prime Minister Rexhepi joined a delegation from the World Bank for lunch at a North Mitrovica...restaurant from both sides. Neither the local police nor KFOR came to the rescue. Rexhepi escaped, but the melee continued, with the World Bank delegation

  15. Germania Quo Vadis?: Dynamics of Change in German Security Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-06-01

    Keohane, Robert O., Michael Brecher and Frank Harveys, eds. Institutional Theory in international Relations. In: Millennial Reflections on International...Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, (Princeton University Press, 1984), pp. 78-109; Robert O. Keohane, “ Institutional ... Theory in international Relations,” in Michael Brecher and Frank Harveys, eds., Millennial Reflections on International Studies (University of Michigan

  16. The contemporary dynamics of Sino-Indian relations: Examining maritime security, economics, energy and elite dialogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athwal, Amardeep

    This dissertation examines the modern-day dynamics of the Sino-Indian relationship---with a particular focus on issues relating to maritime security, economics, energy and elite bilateral dialogue. In exploring the contemporary nature of the Sino-Indian relationship, the dissertation also seeks to assess the accuracy of predominant neorealist accounts of the Sino-Indian relationship. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian War, most analysts have continued to emphasize the conflictual and competitive elements within the Sino-Indian relationship. The dissertation first explores the crucial post-independence history of Sino-Indian relations to provide the appropriate contextual background (chapter one). Thereafter, the dissertation explores the geopolitical significance of the Indian Ocean in light of soaring (global) energy demands. This then leads into an analysis of China and India's naval modernization and China's strategic partnership with Pakistan and Myanmar (chapter two). While acknowledging the credibility of neorealist insights in the realm of maritime security by detailing China and India's naval buildup and naval strategy, overall, it is found that the security dilemma argument is overstated. There is both a lack of threat perception and the existence of alternate explanations for both Chinese and Indian activities in Southern Asia. The dissertation then moves on to explore the positive elements within the Sino-Indian relationship---growing economic interdependence, energy convergence and elite consensus. In the economic realm (chapter three) it is found that Sino-Indian bilateral trade is increasingly being framed institutionally and rapidly expanding every year. The areas where the Sino-Indian economic relationship could be fruitfully expanded are traced and the great potential of bilateral trade is discussed. Thereafter, the dissertation highlights how China and India are beginning to coordinate energy policy (chapter four) as well as the growing political will

  17. Servitization in a Security Business: Changing the Logic of Value Creation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arto Rajala

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available How can a firm change its value-creation logic from providing technology to selling technology-based services? This is a question many security companies face today when trying to apply a solutions-based business model in response to recent macro- and microeconomic trends. The fact that customers increasingly demand security as a service, rather than technical equipment, challenges the basis of a security firm's value provision and alters the logic of its operation. In this article, we investigate a technology- and product-oriented security business that is now rapidly transforming into a service business. We use data from a case study to propose a 4C model (conceptualization, calculation, communication, and co-creation of value that can help security providers to objectify their service offerings and succeed in the servitization of their security businesses.

  18. Party politics and Greek security policy from 1974 to 1984: change and continuity

    OpenAIRE

    Haines, John L.

    1984-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis explores the effects of political change on Greek security policy during the period 1974 to 1984. This period encompasses significant change in Greece's foreign relations including those with the United States. The central question is: Are the elements of Greek security policy based on long-term basic interests which find consistent expression, or are they a function of domestic political factors, more ideologicall...

  19. The economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Chuen Khee, Pek; Yet Mee, Lim; Chee Keong, Choong

    2011-01-01

    This study estimates the economic impact of climate change on food security in Malaysia. The contingent valuation technique is employed on 456 randomly selected households in the vicinities of Selangor Darul Ehsan. The study finds that climate change mitigation programmes to ensure food security are important. The public is willing to pay extra rice price in substitution of a rice subsidy reduction impact for the mitigation programmes. More specifically, the study ascertains that households o...

  20. The dynamics of security provision in the aftermath of war : How international efforts to contribute to security in post-settlement countries relate to national and local perceptions and practices of security

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, R.C.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis is based on field research in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi and South Sudan and looks at the dynamics of security provisioning in post-settlement contexts. A particular focus is on international security interventions, which are constituted by Disarmament,

  1. Water Security in Times of Climate Change and Intractability: Reconciling Conflict by Transforming Security Concerns into Equity Concerns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neil Powell

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers how to achieve equitable water governance and the flow-on effects it has in terms of supporting sustainable development, drawing on case studies from the international climate change adaptation and governance project (CADWAGO. Water governance, like many other global issues, is becoming increasingly intractable (wicked with climate change and is, by the international community, being linked to instances of threats to human security, the war in the Sudanese Darfur and more recently the acts of terrorism perpetuated by ISIS. In this paper, we ask the question: how can situations characterized by water controversy (exacerbated by the uncertainties posed by climate change be reconciled? The main argument is based on a critique of the way the water security discourse appropriates expert (normal claims about human-biophysical relationships. When water challenges become increasingly securitized by the climate change discourse it becomes permissible to enact processes that legitimately transgress normative positions through post-normal actions. In contrast, the water equity discourse offers an alternative reading of wicked and post-normal water governance situations. We contend that by infusing norm critical considerations into the process of securitization, new sub-national constellations of agents will be empowered to enact changes; thereby bypassing vicious cycles of power brokering that characterize contemporary processes intended to address controversies.

  2. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security. Threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; UNU-EHS, Bonn (DE). College of Associated Scientists and Advisors (CASA); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico, Cuernavaca (MX). Regional Multidisciplinary Research Centre (CRIM); Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Exonomics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Dept. of Political Science; Dutch Knowledge network for Systems Innovations and Transitions (KSI), Amsterdam (Netherlands); Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Strathmore Univ., Nairobi (Kenya). Dept. of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Chourou, Bechir [Univ. of Tunis-Carthage, Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Dunay, Pal [Geneva Centre for Security Policy (Switzerland). International Training Course in Security Policy; Birkmann, Joern (eds.) [United Nations Univ. (UNU), Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (EHS)

    2011-07-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10 parts concepts of military and political hard security and economic, social, environmental soft security with a regional focus on the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and Asia and on hazards in urban centres. The major focus is on coping with global environmental change: climate change, desertification, water, food and health and with hazards and strategies on social vulnerability and resilience building and scientific, international, regional and national political strategies, policies and measures including early warning of conflicts and hazards. The book proposes a political geo-ecology and discusses a 'Fourth Green Revolution' for the Anthropocene era of earth history. (orig.)

  3. Facing global environmental change. Environmental, human, energy, food, health and water security concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brauch, Hans Guenter [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Political and Social Sciences; United Nations Univ., Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS); AFES-Press, Mosbach (Germany); Oswald Spring, Ursula [National Univ. of Mexico (UNAM), Cuernavaca, MOR (MX). Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidiscipinarias (CRIM); United Nations Univ., Bonn (DE). Inst. for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS); Grin, John [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Amsterdam School for Social Science Research; Mesjasz, Czeslaw [Cracow Univ. of Economics (Poland). Faculty of Management; Kameri-Mbote, Patricia [Nairobi Univ. (Kenya). School of Law; International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi (Kenya); Behera, Navnita Chadha [Jamia Millia Islamia Univ., New Delhi (India). Nelson Mandela Center for Peace and Conflict Resolution; Chourou, Bechir [Tunis-Carthage Univ., Hammam-Chatt (Tunisia); Krummenacher, Heinz (eds.) [swisspeace, Bern (Switzerland). FAST International

    2009-07-01

    This policy-focused, global and multidisciplinary security handbook on Facing Global Environmental Change addresses new security threats of the 21st century posed by climate change, desertification, water stress, population growth and urbanization. These security dangers and concerns lead to migration, crises and conflicts. They are on the agenda of the UN, OECD, OSCE, NATO and EU. In 100 chapters, 132 authors from 49 countries analyze the global debate on environmental, human and gender, energy, food, livelihood, health and water security concepts and policy problems. In 10 parts they discuss the context and the securitization of global environmental change and of extreme natural and societal outcomes. They suggest a new research programme to move from knowledge to action, from reactive to proactive policies and to explore the opportunities of environ-mental cooperation for a new peace policy. (orig.)

  4. Dynamic security issues in autonomous power systems with increasing wind power penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Margaris, I.D.; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2011-01-01

    Asynchronous Generator (DFAG) and Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) – are applied and issues regarding interaction with the power system are investigated. This paper provides conclusions about the dynamic security of non-interconnected power systems with high wind power penetration based...... on a complete model representation of the individual components of the system; three different types of conventional generators are included in the model, while the protection system is also incorporated. The load shedding following faults is finally discussed....

  5. Dynamic Auditing Protocol for Efficient and Secure Data Storage in Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    J. Noorul Ameen; J. Jamal Mohamed; N. Nilofer Begam

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing, where the data has been stored on cloud servers and retrieved by users (data consumers) the data from cloud servers. However, there are some security challenges which are in need of independent auditing services to verify the data integrity and safety in the cloud. Until now a numerous methods has been developed for remote integrity checking whichever only serve for static archive data and cannot be implemented to the auditing service if the data in the cloud is being dynamic...

  6. Security Enhancement for Multicast over Internet of Things by Dynamically Constructed Fountain Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinghe Du

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Internet of Things (IoT is expected to accommodate every object which exists in this world or likely to exist in the near future. The enormous scale of the objects is challenged by big security concerns, especially for common information dissemination via multicast services, where the reliability assurance for multiple multicast users at the cost of increasing redundancy and/or retransmissions also benefits eavesdroppers in successfully decoding the overheard signals. The objective of this work is to address the security challenge present in IoT multicast applications. Specifically, with the presence of the eavesdropper, an adaptive fountain code design is proposed in this paper to enhance the security for multicast in IoT. The main novel features of the proposed scheme include two folds: (i dynamical encoding scheme which can effectively decrease intercept probability at the eavesdropper; (ii increasing the transmission efficiency compared with the conventional nondynamical design. The analysis and simulation results show that the proposed scheme can effectively enhance information security while achieving higher transmission efficiency with a little accredited complexity, thus facilitating the secured wireless multicast transmissions over IoT.

  7. Communications and Information: Emission Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    The Air Force EMSEC process has experienced many changes. Although these changes were attempts to meet the variances of a dynamic world, they require security protection measures far beyond the needs of the average user...

  8. Climate Change and Water Security in South Africa; Assessing Conflict and Coping Strategies in KwaZulu-Natal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosea, P. O.

    2017-12-01

    The focus on the security implication of climate change was intensified after the 2007 United Nations Security Council debate on climate change as a threat multiplier. In the light of this, Africa is identified as the continent highly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its high dependence on climate sensitive economy, high poverty prevalence rate, weak institutional coping capacity as well as poor social infrastructure. In the past decades, the peculiarity of South Africa vis-à-vis climate change vulnerability, especially water scarcity, has become an issue of political and economic concern. The country is water stressed due to its arid and semi-arid conditions. In light of this, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) (2010) assert that while global temperature increased by 0.80C over the last century, the surface temperature around the Southern Africa region increased by 2.00C over the same period. This connotes that climate change and its impact is inevitable for the region. This will further exacerbate the already stress water resources within South Africa. Owing to Cilliers (2009) and the Council on Foreign Relations (2016) argument that most conflict in Africa are largely driven by resource competition which are masqueraded as issues based on politics, religion or ethnicity, this study investigates the propensity of conflict dynamics in relation to climate change and water security. Using eco-violence theory as a theoretical framework and on the premises of human security, the study assess the security implications triggered by the impact of climate change on water security of rural communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. It focused on the extent to which this might trigger conflict as a coping mechanism among rural dwellers to water insecurity in order to inform policy options. Data for the were sourced using a mixed method paradigm where 385 survey questionnaire were distributed using

  9. Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Nigeria | Osuafor ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Climate change is brought about by natural as well as man-made factors. Climate change or global warming has negative impact on the global environment. Some of these devastating effects include volcano, landslide, erosion, flooding, drought, pests and diseases. These factors in turn impact on agriculture and ...

  10. Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodo, Mahamat K

    2014-01-01

    Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

  11. Climate Change and Food Security in Tanzania: Analysis of Current ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Food systems in Tanzania are highly vulnerable to climate change and variability due to poor adaptive capacity of ... available GCMs and downscaling techniques ... water for hydroelectric power generation ... for farm-level decision making.

  12. Climate Change and Food Security: the role of Biotechnology

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Robert M. Yawson

    2012-08-05

    Aug 5, 2012 ... rainfall patterns and outbreak of pests and diseases negatively affect ... Potential effects of changes in climate on crop yields have been assessed by ... supply programs, and the capacity of emerging technologies to deal with ...

  13. Definition of the "economic security of strategic changes at an enterprise" notion

    OpenAIRE

    Otenko Iryna Pavlivna; Iartym Irina A.

    2014-01-01

    Availability of a multitude of approaches to management of economic security of an enterprise and systemisation of their provisions allow development of a conceptual framework by means of identification of the essence of the “enterprise economic security” notion in the context of development processes management. The article shows that essence and composition of the “economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise” notion should not only take into account the set of views and methods ...

  14. A changing European Security and defense architecture and its impact on Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Yikilkan, Orhan.

    2001-01-01

    Since the 1991 Maastricht Treaty, the European Union countries have been trying to form a common security and defense identity as one facet of the European Union unification process. The efforts to create "separable but not separate" European forces within NATO have accelerated in the last three years and changed direction toward creating an autonomous "European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP)" within the framework of the EU. This policy concerns some non-EU European NATO allies, such as T...

  15. Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Walsh, Margaret; Hauser, Rachel; Murray, Anthony; Jadin, Jenna; Baklund, Peter; Robinson, Paula

    2013-01-01

    Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.

  16. Climate change, environmental security and displacement in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    LUKE AMADI

    Technology. Full Length ... support artisanal and industrial fisheries accounting for ... impact of wave breakers and the full force of storms and ... to internal conflict between competing ethnic groups or .... general information about climate change in the Niger Delta and ...... Flood control in the region needs collaborative efforts.

  17. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  18. Definition of the “economic security of strategic changes at an enterprise” notion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otenko Iryna Pavlivna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Availability of a multitude of approaches to management of economic security of an enterprise and systemisation of their provisions allow development of a conceptual framework by means of identification of the essence of the “enterprise economic security” notion in the context of development processes management. The article shows that essence and composition of the “economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise” notion should not only take into account the set of views and methods of understanding and their interpretation in various aspects, but also form the basic idea and tasks of ensuring economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise, which is reflected in results of its activity through prevention and assessment of threats and formation of the state of protection and qualitative changes. The presented provision that the economic security management system should be integrated into the processes of strategic changes of an enterprise allows forming methodical provision of management of economic security of strategic changes of an enterprise and instruments of management, directions of forming of which correspond with the enterprise strategic goals.

  19. 10 CFR 72.186 - Change to physical security and safeguards contingency plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Change to physical security and safeguards contingency... contingency plans. (a) The licensee shall make no change that would decrease the safeguards effectiveness of... licensee safeguards contingency plan without prior approval of the Commission. A licensee desiring to make...

  20. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  1. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grubler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Victor, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  2. Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-01

    Philip Meade, Mr. Michael Nash, Ms. Vanessa Pena, Mr. Ronald Rolph, Dr. Jocelyn Seng, Mr. Mark Tillman, Dr. Richard Van Atta, Mr. Ryan Wagner, Gen...DeRiggi, Dr. Tony Fainberg, Mr. Keith Green, Mr. Frederick Hartman, Mr. Edward Kenschaft, Dr. Gregory Larsen, Dr. Jamie Link, Mr. Frank Mahncke, Mr...Worst-case Scenario of Climate Change in the South-west Pacific, study by Edwards . Study   Appendix B:   Recommendations for DoD – Response to

  3. Two Stage Secure Dynamic Load Balancing Architecture for SIP Server Clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vennila

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Session Initiation Protocol (SIP is a signaling protocol emerged with an aim to enhance the IP network capabilities in terms of complex service provision. SIP server scalability with load balancing has a greater concern due to the dramatic increase in SIP service demand. Load balancing of session method (request/response and security measures optimizes the SIP server to regulate of network traffic in Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP. Establishing a honeywall prior to the load balancer significantly reduces SIP traffic and drops inbound malicious load. In this paper, we propose Active Least Call in SIP Server (ALC_Server algorithm fulfills objectives like congestion avoidance, improved response times, throughput, resource utilization, reducing server faults, scalability and protection of SIP call from DoS attacks. From the test bed, the proposed two-tier architecture demonstrates that the ALC_Server method dynamically controls the overload and provides robust security, uniform load distribution for SIP servers.

  4. A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Eddie C. M.; Zheng, Xian; Wang, Hui

    2010-04-01

    This study investigates property securities bubbles and crashes by using a dynamic mathematical methodology developed from the previous research (Watanabe et al. 2007a, b [31,32]). The improved model is used to detect the bubble and crash periods in five international countries/cities (namely, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore) from Jan, 2000 to Oct, 2008. By this model definition, we are able to detect the beginning of each bubble period even before it bursts. Meanwhile, the empirical results show that most of property securities markets experienced bubble periods between 2003 and 2007, and crashes happened in Apr 2008 triggered by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of US. In contrast, Japan suffered the shortest bubble period and no evidence has documented the existence of crash there.

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ESSENTIAL ANNUAL CROP PRODUCTION. A VIEW FROM FOOD SECURITY IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS MÉNDEZ NOTARI

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This research has the objective of analyzing whether the public policies that today define the rules for productive development in agriculture can mitigate the effects related to global warming and if these are sufficient to prevent the pressing of climate change over the difficulties already existing in the agricultural sector or, to prevent the emergence of new risk factors or threats that affect the country’s food security. It also seeks to propose some recommendations for the design of public policies to minimize the risks and threats related to the adaptation of agricultural production to climate change and, therefore, to ensure physical, social and economic access to sufficient food and nutritious foods that meet the needs of the national population and mitigate its effects on the multidimensional sphere of the security. In this sense, we try to answer the following question: What challenges does climate change pose to Chilean agriculture in terms of food security?

  6. Dynamic Group Management Scheme for Sustainable and Secure Information Sensing in IoT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyungjoo Kim

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The services provided to users in the environment associated with the Internet of Things (hereinafter referred to as IoT begin with the information collected from sensors. It is imperative to transmit high-quality sensor data for providing better services. It is also required to collect data only from those authenticated sensors. Moreover, it is imperative to collect high-quality data on a sustainable and continuous basis in order to provide services anytime and anywhere in the IoT environment. Therefore, high-quality, authenticated sensor networks should be constructed. The most prominent routing protocol to enhance the energy consumption efficiency for the sustainable data collection in a sensor network is the LEACH routing protocol. The LEACH routing protocol transmits sensor data by measuring the energy of sensors and allocating sensor groups dynamically. However, these sensor networks have vulnerabilities such as key leakage, eavesdropping, replay attack and relay attack, given the nature of wireless network communication. A large number of security techniques have been studied in order to solve these vulnerabilities. Nonetheless, these studies still cannot support the dynamic sensor group allocation of the LEACH routing protocol. Furthermore, they are not suitable for the sensor nodes whose hardware computing ability and energy resources are limited. Therefore, this paper proposed a group sensor communication protocol that utilizes only the four fundamental arithmetic operations and logical operation for the sensor node authentication and secure data transmission. Through the security analysis, this paper verified that the proposed scheme was secure to the vulnerabilities resulting from the nature of wireless network communication. Moreover, this paper verified through the performance analysis that the proposed scheme could be utilized efficiently.

  7. Dynamic Outsourced Proofs of Retrievability Enabling Auditing Migration for Remote Storage Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Rao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Remote data auditing service is important for mobile clients to guarantee the intactness of their outsourced data stored at cloud side. To relieve mobile client from the nonnegligible burden incurred by performing the frequent data auditing, more and more literatures propose that the execution of such data auditing should be migrated from mobile client to third-party auditor (TPA. However, existing public auditing schemes always assume that TPA is reliable, which is the potential risk for outsourced data security. Although Outsourced Proofs of Retrievability (OPOR have been proposed to further protect against the malicious TPA and collusion among any two entities, the original OPOR scheme applies only to the static data, which is the limitation that should be solved for enabling data dynamics. In this paper, we design a novel authenticated data structure called bv23Tree, which enables client to batch-verify the indices and values of any number of appointed leaves all at once for efficiency. By utilizing bv23Tree and a hierarchical storage structure, we present the first solution for Dynamic OPOR (DOPOR, which extends the OPOR model to support dynamic updates of the outsourced data. Extensive security and performance analyses show the reliability and effectiveness of our proposed scheme.

  8. Strategic information security

    CERN Document Server

    Wylder, John

    2003-01-01

    Introduction to Strategic Information SecurityWhat Does It Mean to Be Strategic? Information Security Defined The Security Professional's View of Information Security The Business View of Information SecurityChanges Affecting Business and Risk Management Strategic Security Strategic Security or Security Strategy?Monitoring and MeasurementMoving Forward ORGANIZATIONAL ISSUESThe Life Cycles of Security ManagersIntroductionThe Information Security Manager's Responsibilities The Evolution of Data Security to Information SecurityThe Repository Concept Changing Job Requirements Business Life Cycles

  9. An efficient and secure dynamic ID-based authentication scheme for telecare medical information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hung-Ming; Lo, Jung-Wen; Yeh, Chang-Kuo

    2012-12-01

    The rapidly increased availability of always-on broadband telecommunication environments and lower-cost vital signs monitoring devices bring the advantages of telemedicine directly into the patient's home. Hence, the control of access to remote medical servers' resources has become a crucial challenge. A secure authentication scheme between the medical server and remote users is therefore needed to safeguard data integrity, confidentiality and to ensure availability. Recently, many authentication schemes that use low-cost mobile devices have been proposed to meet these requirements. In contrast to previous schemes, Khan et al. proposed a dynamic ID-based remote user authentication scheme that reduces computational complexity and includes features such as a provision for the revocation of lost or stolen smart cards and a time expiry check for the authentication process. However, Khan et al.'s scheme has some security drawbacks. To remedy theses, this study proposes an enhanced authentication scheme that overcomes the weaknesses inherent in Khan et al.'s scheme and demonstrated this scheme is more secure and robust for use in a telecare medical information system.

  10. Agroforestry solutions to address climate change and food security challenges in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mbow, C.; Neufeldt, H.; Noordwijk, van M.; Minang, P.A.; Kowero, G.; Luedeling, E.

    2014-01-01

    Trees inside and outside forests contribute to food security in Africa in the face of climate variability and change. They also provide environmental and social benefits as part of farming livelihoods. Varied ecological and socio-economic conditions have given rise to specific forms of agroforestry

  11. Macintosh Computer Classroom and Laboratory Security: Preventing Unwanted Changes to the System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senn, Gary J.; Smyth, Thomas J. C.

    Because of the graphical interface and "openness" of the operating system, Macintosh computers are susceptible to undesirable changes by the user. This presentation discusses the advantages and disadvantages of software packages that offer protection for the Macintosh system. The two basic forms of software security packages include a…

  12. A coherency-based method to increase dynamic security in power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Tuglie, E. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Ambiente e per lo Sviluppo Sostenibile - DIASS, Politecnico di Bari, Viale del Turismo 8, 74100 Taranto (Italy); Iannone, S.M.; Torelli, F. [Dipartimento di Elettrotecnica ed Elettronica - DEE, Politecnico di Bari, Via Re David 200, 70125 Bari (Italy)

    2008-08-15

    Dynamic security analysis is the evaluation of the ability of a system to withstand contingencies by surviving transient conditions to acceptable steady-state operative states. When potential instability due to contingency is detected, preventive action may be desired to improve the system security. This is very important in the on-line operation of a power system, especially when the system is stability-limited. The method proposed in this paper is based on the idea that increasing coherency between generators in the transient behaviour following a system perturbation gives rise to a more stable system. In this paper, we suggest the use of the ''input-output feedback-linearization'' with a reference trajectory obtained using a system dynamic equivalent based on the centre of inertia. To quantify coherency levels a new coherency indicator has been assumed for the given reference trajectory. The result is an increasing level in coherency, critical clearing time and system stability. The method is tested on the IEEE 30 bus test system. (author)

  13. Dynamical complexity changes during two forms of meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin; Hu, Jing; Zhang, Yinhong; Zhang, Xiaofeng

    2011-06-01

    Detection of dynamical complexity changes in natural and man-made systems has deep scientific and practical meaning. We use the base-scale entropy method to analyze dynamical complexity changes for heart rate variability (HRV) series during specific traditional forms of Chinese Chi and Kundalini Yoga meditation techniques in healthy young adults. The results show that dynamical complexity decreases in meditation states for two forms of meditation. Meanwhile, we detected changes in probability distribution of m-words during meditation and explained this changes using probability distribution of sine function. The base-scale entropy method may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals.

  14. Youth transitioning out of foster care: an evaluation of a Supplemental Security Income policy change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Laura; Rukh-Kamaa, Aneer

    2013-01-01

    Youths with disabilities face numerous challenges when they transition to adulthood. Those who are aging out of foster care face the additional challenge of losing their foster care benefits, although some will be eligible for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments after foster care ceases. However, the time needed to process SSI applications exposes those youths to a potential gap in the receipt of benefits as they move between foster care and SSI. We evaluate the effects of a 2010 Social Security Administration policy change that allows such youths to apply for SSI payments 60 days earlier than the previous policy allowed. The change provides additional time for processing claims before the applicant ages out of the foster care system. We examine administrative records on SSI applications from before and after the policy change to determine if the change has decreased the gap between benefits for the target population.

  15. Intraspecific Genetic dynamics under Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Florez Rodriguez, Alexander

    Climate change has a deep influence on the maintenance and generation of global biodiversity. Past contractions, expansions and shifts in species’ ranges drove to changes in species genetic diversity. Noteworthy, the interaction among: climate change, range, population size and extinction is often...

  16. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheffran, Juergen [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Research Group Climate Change and Security

    2009-07-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  17. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheffran, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  18. Nuclear power, climate change and energy security: Exploring British public attitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corner, Adam; Venables, Dan; Spence, Alexa; Poortinga, Wouter; Demski, Christina; Pidgeon, Nick

    2011-01-01

    Public attitudes towards nuclear power in the UK have historically been deeply divided, but as concern about climate change and energy security has exerted an increasing influence on British energy policy, nuclear power has been reframed as a low-carbon technology. Previous research has suggested that a significant proportion of people may 'reluctantly accept' nuclear power as a means of addressing the greater threat of climate change. Drawing on the results of a national British survey (n=1822), the current study found that attitudes towards nuclear remain divided, with only a minority expressing unconditional acceptance. In general, people who expressed greater concern about climate change and energy security and possessed higher environmental values were less likely to favour nuclear power. However, when nuclear power was given an explicit 'reluctant acceptance' framing - allowing people to express their dislike for nuclear power alongside their conditional support - concerns about climate change and energy security became positive predictors of support for nuclear power. These findings suggest that concern about climate change and energy security will only increase acceptance of nuclear power under limited circumstances-specifically once other (preferred) options have been exhausted. - Highlights: → We report data from 2005 to 2010 of British attitudes towards nuclear power and climate change. → Changes in attitudes over the time period were relatively modest. → British population remained relatively divided on nuclear power in 2010. → Concern about climate change was negatively related to evaluations of nuclear power. → Different framings of the issue alter the balance of support for nuclear power.

  19. Nuclear power, climate change and energy security: Exploring British public attitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corner, Adam; Venables, Dan [School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Tower Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT (United Kingdom); Spence, Alexa [School of Psychology/Horizon Digital Economy Research, University of Nottingham (United Kingdom); Poortinga, Wouter [Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University (United Kingdom); School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Tower Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT (United Kingdom); Demski, Christina [School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Tower Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT (United Kingdom); Pidgeon, Nick, E-mail: pidgeonn@cardiff.ac.uk [School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Tower Building, Park Place, Cardiff CF10 3AT (United Kingdom)

    2011-09-15

    Public attitudes towards nuclear power in the UK have historically been deeply divided, but as concern about climate change and energy security has exerted an increasing influence on British energy policy, nuclear power has been reframed as a low-carbon technology. Previous research has suggested that a significant proportion of people may 'reluctantly accept' nuclear power as a means of addressing the greater threat of climate change. Drawing on the results of a national British survey (n=1822), the current study found that attitudes towards nuclear remain divided, with only a minority expressing unconditional acceptance. In general, people who expressed greater concern about climate change and energy security and possessed higher environmental values were less likely to favour nuclear power. However, when nuclear power was given an explicit 'reluctant acceptance' framing - allowing people to express their dislike for nuclear power alongside their conditional support - concerns about climate change and energy security became positive predictors of support for nuclear power. These findings suggest that concern about climate change and energy security will only increase acceptance of nuclear power under limited circumstances-specifically once other (preferred) options have been exhausted. - Highlights: > We report data from 2005 to 2010 of British attitudes towards nuclear power and climate change. > Changes in attitudes over the time period were relatively modest. > British population remained relatively divided on nuclear power in 2010. > Concern about climate change was negatively related to evaluations of nuclear power. > Different framings of the issue alter the balance of support for nuclear power.

  20. The Roles of Seaweed on Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Product

    OpenAIRE

    A. Niarthiningsih; Wahyudin, Elly

    2013-01-01

    This paper gives an overview of the potential role of seaweed in reducing global warming and climate change, contributing to food security and producing natural products. The role of seaweed on controlling climate change is through reducing carbon dioxide and converting seaweed into the bio fuel. The use of bio-fuel could reduce the traditional hydrocarbon as energy that produces carbon emission. Fresh and processed seaweed are commonly used as a food. This may contribute significantly to ...

  1. Asynchronous anti-noise hyper chaotic secure communication system based on dynamic delay and state variables switching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Hongjun [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Weifang Vocational College, Weifang 261041 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhu, Quanlong [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2011-07-18

    This Letter designs an asynchronous hyper chaotic secure communication system, which possesses high stability against noise, using dynamic delay and state variables switching to ensure the high security. The relationship between the bit error ratio (BER) and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is analyzed by simulation tests, the results show that the BER can be ensured to reach zero by proportionally adjusting the amplitudes of the state variables and the noise figure. The modules of the transmitter and receiver are implemented, and numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the system. -- Highlights: → Asynchronous anti-noise hyper chaotic secure communication system. → Dynamic delay and state switching to ensure the high security. → BER can reach zero by adjusting the amplitudes of state variables and noise figure.

  2. Methods for Calculating Frequency of Maintenance of Complex Information Security System Based on Dynamics of Its Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.

    2017-11-01

    This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.

  3. 区域生态安全动态变化及空间差异定量分析:以陕北黄土高原为例%Quantitative analysis of the dynamic change and spatial differences of the ecological security:a case study of Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李晶; 任志远; 周自翔

    2006-01-01

    Using the theory and method of the ecological footprint, and combining the changes of regional land use, resource environment, population, society and economy, this paper calculated the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus/loss in 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province. What is more, this paper has put forward the concept of ecological pressure index, set up ecological pressure index models, and ecological security grading systems, and the prediction models of different ecological footprints, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus and ecological safety change, and also has assessed the ecological footprint demands of 10,000 yuan GDP.The results of this study are as follows: (1) the ecological carrying capacity in northern Shaanxi shows a decreasing trend, the difference of reducing range is the fastest; (2) the ecological footprint appears an increasing trend; (3) ecological pressure index rose to 0.91 from 0.44 during 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi with an increase of 47%; and (4) the ecological security in the study area is in a critical state, and the ecological pressure index has been increasing rapidly.

  4. An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, Johannes; Hers, Sebastiaan; Van der Zwaan, Bob

    2010-01-01

    This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO 2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (author)

  5. Improving food security? Setting indicators and observing change of rural household in Central Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephan Klasen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Household food security is a critical issue for Indonesia, which is investigated in this study. Many of rural household in Indonesia depends on agricultural sectors and facing challenges of global warming that threatening food security and poverty alleviation in the country. We use panel data at the household level for a sample of households living in Central Sulawesi at the rainforest margin in Indonesia. For the purpose of this study, we apply principal component analysis to develop an indicator of food security and used the index in determining the household’s condition to be persistent food secure or insecure. The findings present the fact that over the period the household’s food security in the study area has changed to better food condition. The number of people who are food insecure has declined by 23.73 % over the year. However, the results suggest that public services on health, education and infrastructure need to be strengthened, investments in access to credit and off-farm employment policies, as well as insurance programs on social protection and disaster management, need to be developed.

  6. The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo S. Masipa

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to examine the impact of climate change on food security in South Africa. For this purpose, the article adopted a desktop study approach. Previous studies, reports, surveys and policies on climate change and food (insecurity. From this paper’s analysis, climate change presents a high risk to food security in sub-Saharan countries from crop production to food distribution and consumption. In light of this, it is found that climate change, particularly global warming, affects food security through food availability, accessibility, utilisation and affordability. To mitigate these risks, there is a need for an integrated policy approach to protect the arable land against global warming. The argument advanced in this article is that South Africa’s ability to adapt and protect its food items depends on the understanding of risks and the vulnerability of various food items to climate change. However, this poses a challenge in developing countries, including South Africa, because such countries have weak institutions and limited access to technology. Another concern is a wide gap between the cost of adapting and the necessary financial support from the government. There is also a need to invest in technologies that will resist risks on food systems.

  7. Impacts of the Climate Change on Agricultural Food Security, Traditional Knowledge and Agroecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Türkeş

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses mainly on both impacts of the climate change on agriculture and food security, and multidisciplinary scientific assessment and recommendations for sustainable agro ecological solutions including traditional knowledge responding to these impacts. The climate change will very likely affect four key dimensions of the food security including availability, accessibility, utilization and sustainability of the food, due to close linkage between food and water security and climate change. In one of the most comprehensive model studies simulating impacts of global climate change on agriculture to date, it was estimated that by 2080, in a business-as-usual scenario, climate change will reduce the potential output of global agriculture by more than 3.2 per cent. Furthermore, developing countries will suffer the most with a potential 9.1 per cent decline in agricultural output, for example with a considerable decrease of 16.6 per cent in Africa. Some comprehensive studies pointed out also that all regions may experience significant decreases in crop yields as well as significant increases, depending on emission scenarios and the assumptions on effectiveness of carbon dioxide (CO2 fertilization. One of the tools that would ensure the food security by making use of local sources and traditional knowledge is agroecology. Agroecology would contribute to mitigation of the anthropogenic climate change and cooling down the Earth’s increasing surface and lower atmospheric air temperatures, because it is mainly labour-intensive and requires little uses of fossil fuels, energy and artificial fertilisers. It is also necessary to understand the ecological mechanisms underlying sustainability of traditional farming systems, and to translate them into ecological principles that make locally available and appropriate approaches and techniques applicable to a large number of farmers.

  8. The role of space in the security and defence policy of Turkey. A change in outlook: Security in space versus security from space

    OpenAIRE

    Ercan, C.; Kale, I.

    2017-01-01

    Space and security domains are strongly related with each other. Nowadays, space is an indispensable part of security and defence policy, and it is increasingly becoming a critical infrastructure for strategic Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) systems. However, space is vulnerable itself to the new space threats. This study reviews the current and near future space role in Turkey's security and defence policy and aims to address...

  9. Food Security Hotspots in India under Changing Climate and Growing Populatio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global climate change, unprecedented population growth, and rapid urbanization have elevated the possibility of food and water shortages in many regions across the world. The likelihood of such shortages in the future is further exacerbated by the fact that increased greenhouse forcing and rapid growth in human population will continue for at least the next several decades. These socio-environmental changes will likely put some regions under enormous economic and environmental stress by forcing them to adapt to new conditions. India with its rapidly growing population and high rates of urbanization and industrialization is one such region whose agricultural resources will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of these changes. This study collectively reviews and analyses the possible impacts of climate change, population growth and resulting land use change on the availability of food and water in the coming decades for India. By analyzing and fusing a wide variety of existing data and research on the impact of land use change, population, and climate change, on water and food resources this study develops an understanding of the broader implications of each of the changes on food security in the region. In addition, the study focuses on the need to assess and quantify the combination of such impacts at a regional level and identify food security hotspots spatially across India that will help to narrow down regions in the country which will be severely affected and need priority adaptation and mitigation measures.

  10. Cloud Radar: Near Real-Time Detection of Security Failures in Dynamic Virtualized Infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleikertz, Sören; Vogel, Carsten; Groß, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Cloud infrastructures are designed to share physical resources among many different tenants while ensuring overall secu- rity and tenant isolation. The complexity of dynamically changing and growing cloud environments, as well as insider attacks, can lead to misconfigurations that ultimately result

  11. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture's mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.

  12. The RAppArmor Package: Enforcing Security Policies in R Using Dynamic Sandboxing on Linux

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen Ooms

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The increasing availability of cloud computing and scientific super computers brings great potential for making R accessible through public or shared resources. This allows us to efficiently run code requiring lots of cycles and memory, or embed R functionality into, e.g., systems and web services. However some important security concerns need to be addressed before this can be put in production. The prime use case in the design of R has always been a single statistician running R on the local machine through the interactive console. Therefore the execution environment of R is entirely unrestricted, which could result in malicious behavior or excessive use of hardware resources in a shared environment. Properly securing an R process turns out to be a complex problem. We describe various approaches and illustrate potential issues using some of our personal experiences in hosting public web services. Finally we introduce the RAppArmor package: a Linux based reference implementation for dynamic sandboxing in R on the level of the operating system.

  13. Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

  14. Functional connectivity change as shared signal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Michael W.; Yang, Genevieve J.; Murray, John D.; Repovš, Grega; Anticevic, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Background An increasing number of neuroscientific studies gain insights by focusing on differences in functional connectivity – between groups, individuals, temporal windows, or task conditions. We found using simulations that additional insights into such differences can be gained by forgoing variance normalization, a procedure used by most functional connectivity measures. Simulations indicated that these functional connectivity measures are sensitive to increases in independent fluctuations (unshared signal) in time series, consistently reducing functional connectivity estimates (e.g., correlations) even though such changes are unrelated to corresponding fluctuations (shared signal) between those time series. This is inconsistent with the common notion of functional connectivity as the amount of inter-region interaction. New Method Simulations revealed that a version of correlation without variance normalization – covariance – was able to isolate differences in shared signal, increasing interpretability of observed functional connectivity change. Simulations also revealed cases problematic for non-normalized methods, leading to a “covariance conjunction” method combining the benefits of both normalized and non-normalized approaches. Results We found that covariance and covariance conjunction methods can detect functional connectivity changes across a variety of tasks and rest in both clinical and non-clinical functional MRI datasets. Comparison with Existing Method(s) We verified using a variety of tasks and rest in both clinical and non-clinical functional MRI datasets that it matters in practice whether correlation, covariance, or covariance conjunction methods are used. Conclusions These results demonstrate the practical and theoretical utility of isolating changes in shared signal, improving the ability to interpret observed functional connectivity change. PMID:26642966

  15. Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2010-01-01

    Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Colombia’s National and Regional Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    Peru, and Chile have relatively diverse, industrialized economies and greater domestic resources and state capaci- ties for adaptation. Bolivia...Change on Colombia’s National and Regional Security References 1 Colombia, Sistema de Informacion sobre el Uso del Agua en la Agricultura y el Medio...Jul 2009. "El cambio climatico en Colombia." Unpublished report shared with authors. IDEAM. 26 "El agua para 40 millones de personas esta en riesgo

  17. Effects of Climate Change on Volcanic Emissions and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    who are physically active outdoors are most likely to experience the health effects of SO2. The main effect, even with a short exposure, is a... Health Security in Hawaii by 2050 Canyon DV, Campbell JR Abstract While it is commonly understood that climate change will modify the weather, it is...wind, humidity and precipitation, and the height of the inversion layer. Health effects from vog exposure vary greatly among individuals. People with

  18. Use of Persuasive Technology to Change End-Users- IT Security Aware Behaviour: A Pilot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Ai Cheo Yeo; Md. Mahbubur Rahim; Yin Ying Ren

    2008-01-01

    Persuasive technology has been applied in marketing, health, environmental conservation, safety and other domains and is found to be quite effective in changing people-s attitude and behaviours. This research extends the application domains of persuasive technology to information security awareness and uses a theory-driven approach to evaluate the effectiveness of a web-based program developed based on the principles of persuasive technology to improve the information sec...

  19. Dynamical Analysis, Synchronization, Circuit Design, and Secure Communication of a Novel Hyperchaotic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Xiong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is devoted to introduce a novel fourth-order hyperchaotic system. The hyperchaotic system is constructed by adding a linear feedback control level based on a modified Lorenz-like chaotic circuit with reduced number of amplifiers. The local dynamical entities, such as the basic dynamical behavior, the divergence, the eigenvalue, and the Lyapunov exponents of the new hyperchaotic system, are all investigated analytically and numerically. Then, an active control method is derived to achieve global chaotic synchronization of the novel hyperchaotic system through making the synchronization error system asymptotically stable at the origin based on Lyapunov stability theory. Next, the proposed novel hyperchaotic system is applied to construct another new hyperchaotic system with circuit deformation and design a new hyperchaotic secure communication circuit. Furthermore, the implementation of two novel electronic circuits of the proposed hyperchaotic systems is presented, examined, and realized using physical components. A good qualitative agreement is shown between the simulations and the experimental results around 500 kHz and below 1 MHz.

  20. Security Enhancement of Knowledge-based User Authentication through Keystroke Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy Soumen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Keystroke Dynamics is a behavioural biometrics characteristic in Biometric science, which solve the issues in user identification or verification. In Knowledge-based user authentication technique, we compromise with PIN or password which is unsafe due to different type of attacks. It is good to choose password with the combination of upper and lower case letter with some digits and symbols, but which is very hard to remember or generally we forget to distinguish those passwords for different access control systems. Our system not only takes the users’ entered texts but their typing style is also account for. In our experiment, we have not taken hard password type texts, we have chosen some daily used words where users are habituated and comfortable at typing and we obtained the consisting typing pattern. Different distance-based and data mining algorithms we have applied on collected typing pattern and obtained impressive results. As per our experiment, if we use keystroke dynamics in existing knowledge based user authentication system with minimum of five daily used common texts then it increases the security level up to 97.6% to 98.2% (if we remove some of the irrelevant feature sets.

  1. The complexity of an investment competition dynamical model with imperfect information in a security market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xin Baogui; Ma Junhai; Gao Qin

    2009-01-01

    We present a nonlinear discrete dynamical model of investment competition with imperfect information for N heterogeneous oligopolists in a security market. In this paper, our focus is on a given three-dimensional model which exhibits highly rich dynamical behaviors. Based on Wen's Hopf bifurcation criterion [Wen GL. Criterion to identify Hopf bifurcations in maps of arbitrary dimension. Phys Rev E 2005;72:026201-3; Wen GL, Xu DL, Han X. On creation of Hopf bifurcations in discrete-time nonlinear systems. Chaos 2002;12(2):350-5] and Kuznetsov's normal form theory [Kuznetsov YA. Elements of applied bifurcation theory. New York: Springer-Verlag; 1998. p. 125-37], we study the model's stability, criterion and direction of Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. Moreover, we numerically simulate a complexity evolution route: fixed point, closed invariant curve, double closed invariant curves, fourfold closed invariant curves, strange attractor, period-3 closed invariant curve, period-3 2-tours, period-4 closed invariant curve, period-4 2-tours.

  2. Global climate change and international security. Report on a conference held at Argonne National Laboratory, May 8--10, 1991

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-12-31

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  3. Evaluation of surface water dynamics for water-food security in seasonal wetlands, north-central Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Hiyama

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural use of wetlands is important for food security in various regions. However, land-use changes in wetland areas could alter the water cycle and the ecosystem. To conserve the water environments of wetlands, care is needed when introducing new cropping systems. This study is the first attempt to evaluate the water dynamics in the case of the introduction of rice-millet mixed-cropping systems to the Cuvelai system seasonal wetlands (CSSWs in north-central Namibia. We first investigated seasonal changes in surface water coverage by using satellite remote sensing data. We also assessed the effect of the introduction of rice-millet mixed-cropping systems on evapotranspiration in the CSSWs region. For the former investigation, we used MODIS and AMSR-E satellite remote sensing data. These data showed that at the beginning of the wet season, surface water appears from the southern (lower part and then expands to the northern (higher part of the CSSWs. For the latter investigation, we used data obtained by the classical Bowen ratio-energy balance (BREB method at an experimental field site established in September 2012 on the Ogongo campus, University of Namibia. This analysis showed the importance of water and vegetation conditions when introducing mixed-cropping to the region.

  4. SAInt – A novel quasi-dynamic model for assessing security of supply in coupled gas and electricity transmission networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pambour, Kwabena Addo; Cakir Erdener, Burcin; Bolado-Lavin, Ricardo; Dijkema, Gerhard P.J.

    2017-01-01

    The integration of renewable energy sources into existing electric power systems is connected with an increased interdependence between natural gas and electricity transmission networks. To analyse this interdependence and its impact on security of supply, we developed a novel quasi-dynamic

  5. Dynamic Personal Identity and the Dynamic Identity Grid: How Theory and Concept Can Transform Information into Knowledge and Secure the American Homeland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    80 Figure 12. Dynamic Identity Grid Strategy Canvas ..........................................................81 Figure 13. Hurdles to...GIG Global Information Grid HSPD Homeland Security Presidential Directive IAFIS Integrated Automated Fingerprint Identification System IP...recognizing a person based on a physiological or behavioral characteristic. Biometric features that can be measured include: facial, fingerprint , hand

  6. Development and Application of a New Grey Dynamic Hierarchy Analysis System (GDHAS) for Evaluating Urban Ecological Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Chaofeng; Tian, Xiaogang; Guan, Yang; Ju, Meiting; Xie, Qiang

    2013-01-01

    Selecting indicators based on the characteristics and development trends of a given study area is essential for building a framework for assessing urban ecological security. However, few studies have focused on how to select the representative indicators systematically, and quantitative research is lacking. We developed an innovative quantitative modeling approach called the grey dynamic hierarchy analytic system (GDHAS) for both the procedures of indicator selection and quantitative assessment of urban ecological security. Next, a systematic methodology based on the GDHAS is developed to assess urban ecological security comprehensively and dynamically. This assessment includes indicator selection, driving force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework building, and quantitative evaluation. We applied this systematic methodology to assess the urban ecological security of Tianjin, which is a typical coastal super megalopolis and the industry base in China. This case study highlights the key features of our approach. First, 39 representative indicators are selected for the evaluation index system from 62 alternative ones available through the GDHAS. Second, the DPSIR framework is established based on the indicators selected, and the quantitative assessment of the eco-security of Tianjin is conducted. The results illustrate the following: urban ecological security of Tianjin in 2008 was in alert level but not very stable; the driving force and pressure subsystems were in good condition, but the eco-security levels of the remainder of the subsystems were relatively low; the pressure subsystem was the key to urban ecological security; and 10 indicators are defined as the key indicators for five subsystems. These results can be used as the basis for urban eco-environmental management. PMID:23698700

  7. A secure effective dynamic group password-based authenticated key agreement scheme for the integrated EPR information system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanga Odelu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid growth of the Internet, a lot of electronic patient records (EPRs have been developed for e-medicine systems. The security and privacy issues of EPRs are important for the patients in order to understand how the hospitals control the use of their personal information, such as name, address, e-mail, medical records, etc. of a particular patient. Recently, Lee et al. proposed a simple group password-based authenticated key agreement protocol for the integrated EPR information system (SGPAKE. However, in this paper, we show that Lee et al.’s protocol is vulnerable to the off-line weak password guessing attack and as a result, their scheme does not provide users’ privacy. To withstand this security weakness found in Lee et al.’s scheme, we aim to propose an effective dynamic group password-based authenticated key exchange scheme for the integrated EPR information system, which retains the original merits of Lee et al.’s scheme. Through the informal and formal security analysis, we show that our scheme provides users’ privacy, perfect forward security and known-key security, and also protects online and offline password guessing attacks. Furthermore, our scheme efficiently supports the dynamic group password-based authenticated key agreement for the integrated EPR information system. In addition, we simulate our scheme for the formal security verification using the widely-accepted AVISPA (Automated Validation of Internet Security Protocols and Applications tool and show that our scheme is secure against passive and active attacks.

  8. The Political Dynamics of Educational Changes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhongjing; Wang, Ting; Li, Xiaojun

    2016-01-01

    This article explores the trajectory of educational changes in China over the past three decades in the context of globalization and social and economic transformation. It addresses three research questions: what educational changes occurred in China, why some educational policies worked well but others failed, how the political dynamics of…

  9. Monitoring land Cover Changes and Fragmentation dynamics in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Monitoring land Cover Changes and Fragmentation dynamics in the subtropical thicket of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. ... Baseline land use/cover maps and fragmentation analyses in a temporal framework are valuable for gaining insights into, among other things, carbon stock change trends. Keywords: Land ...

  10. Reconnection production-consumption: change to achieve food and nutritional security, as well as rural development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shirley Rodríguez-González

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze the importance of changing the conventional food system to achieve food and nutritional security, as well as rural development. This text was divided into three sections. In the first one, the conventional food system and its consequences were characterized, showing the need for a change that seeks the integration of social, environmental, and health dimensions. The second part addressed the interventions related to the food supply system made by the Government, which are fundamental to achieve food and nutrition security, as well as to promote development processes in rural areas. Finally, the experience of Brazil’s National School Feeding Programme was presented. That program links food produced by small producers with the National School Feeding Program, allowing the reconnection of production and consumers through institutional markets. That link created incentives for food and nutrition security of small farmers and, at the same time, improved the availability of higher- quality food for vulnerable populations and promotedeating patterns that allow the preservation of food culture.

  11. Ecosystem Management: Tomorrow’s Approach to Enhancing Food Security under a Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Rivington

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that a sustainable ecosystem management approach is vital to ensure the delivery of essential ‘life support’ ecosystem services and must be mainstreamed into societal conscience, political thinking and economic processes. Feeding the world at a time of climate change, environmental degradation, increasing human population and demand for finite resources requires sustainable ecosystem management and equitable governance. Ecosystem degradation undermines food production and the availability of clean water, hence threatening human health, livelihoods and ultimately societal stability. Degradation also increases the vulnerability of populations to the consequences of natural disasters and climate change impacts. With 10 million people dying from hunger each year, the linkages between ecosystems and food security are important to recognize. Though we all depend on ecosystems for our food and water, about seventy per cent of the estimated 1.1 billion people in poverty around the world live in rural areas and depend directly on the productivity of ecosystems for their livelihoods. Healthy ecosystems provide a diverse range of food sources and support entire agricultural systems, but their value to food security and sustainable livelihoods are often undervalued or ignored. There is an urgent need for increased financial investment for integrating ecosystem management with food security and poverty alleviation priorities. As the world’s leaders worked towards a new international climate change agenda in Cancun, Mexico, 29 November–10 December 2010 (UNFCCC COP16, it was clear that without a deep and decisive post-2012 agreement and major concerted effort to reduce the food crisis, the Millennium Development Goals will not be attained. Political commitment at the highest level will be needed to raise the profile of ecosystems on the global food agenda. It is recommended that full recognition and promotion be given of the linkages

  12. Household Perceptions about the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shobha Poudel

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study tried to understand the mountainous households’ perception of climate change and its impacts on food security in the Lamjung district of Nepal. The study attempted to find out changes in households food security and daily activities in the face of climate change for the last twenty years. The study started with the 150 household surveys along with participatory rural appraisal to understand the climate change perception of local people and its impact on dimensions of food security. Households expressed different levels of perception in terms of climate change on food security. The result shows that most of the mountainous households experienced increased temperature, less rainfall in winter, an increasing number of natural disasters and the emergence of insects for the last twenty years. They perceived the role of climate change in decreased crop production, decreased dairy products and increased household work. The situation of food security is likely to be more vulnerable to climate change in the future. It was also observed that households have been using different autonomous adaptation measures, such as high yielding crop varieties, enhanced irrigation systems and fertilizers, to cope with the changing climate. Finally, the study recommended policy instruments to enhance food security in the mountainous region amidst changing climate.

  13. A new algorithm for combined dynamic economic emission dispatch with security constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arul, R.; Velusami, S.; Ravi, G.

    2015-01-01

    The primary objective of CDEED (combined dynamic economic emission dispatch) problem is to determine the optimal power generation schedule for the online generating units over a time horizon considered and simultaneously minimizing the emission level and satisfying the generators and system constraints. The CDEED problem is bi-objective optimization problem, where generation cost and emission are considered as two competing objective functions. This bi-objective CDEED problem is represented as a single objective optimization problem by assigning different weights for each objective functions. The weights are varied in steps and for each variation one compromise solution are generated and finally fuzzy based selection method is used to select the best compromise solution from the set of compromise solutions obtained. In order to reflect the test systems considered as real power system model, the security constraints are also taken into account. Three new versions of DHS (differential harmony search) algorithms have been proposed to solve the CDEED problems. The feasibility of the proposed algorithms is demonstrated on IEEE-26 and IEEE-39 bus systems. The result obtained by the proposed CSADHS (chaotic self-adaptive differential harmony search) algorithm is found to be better than EP (evolutionary programming), DHS, and the other proposed algorithms in terms of solution quality, convergence speed and computation time. - Highlights: • In this paper, three new algorithms CDHS, SADHS and CSADHS are proposed. • To solve DED with emission, poz's, spinning reserve and security constraints. • Results obtained by the proposed CSADHS algorithm are better than others. • The proposed CSADHS algorithm has fast convergence characteristic than others

  14. 75 FR 75711 - Securities Investor Protection Corporation; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Bylaw Change Relating...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-06

    ... Securities Investor Protection Corporation (``SIPC'') filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission... Members, Rel. No. SIPA-156, 56 FR 51952 (Oct. 16, 1991). \\6\\ Securities Investor Protection Corporation... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. SIPA-169; File No. SIPC-2010-01] Securities...

  15. US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact

  16. Impacts of multiple global environmental changes on African crop yield and water use efficiency: Implications to food and water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, S.; Yang, J.; Zhang, J.; Xu, R.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, H.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change and climate variability. Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and other environmental factors on water resource and food security through the climate-water-food nexus. Understanding the responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to environmental changes is particularly important because Africa is well known for widespread poverty, slow economic growth and agricultural systems particularly sensitive to frequent and persistent droughts. However, the lack of integrated understanding has limited our ability to quantify and predict the potential of Africa's agricultural sustainability and freshwater supply, and to better manage the system for meeting an increasing food demand in a way that is socially and environmentally or ecologically sustainable. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across entire Africa in the past 35 years (1980-2015) and the rest of the 21st century (2016-2099). Our preliminary results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion (about 50%), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions. Our results indicate that N fertilizer could be a major driver to improve food security in Africa. Future climate warming could reduce crop yield and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land

  17. Lane-changing model with dynamic consideration of driver's propensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Jianqiang; Zhang, Jinglei; Ban, Xuegang Jeff

    2015-07-01

    Lane-changing is the driver's selection result of the satisfaction degree in different lane driving conditions. There are many different factors influencing lane-changing behavior, such as diversity, randomicity and difficulty of measurement. So it is hard to accurately reflect the uncertainty of drivers' lane-changing behavior. As a result, the research of lane-changing models is behind that of car-following models. Driver's propensity is her/his emotion state or the corresponding preference of a decision or action toward the real objective traffic situations under the influence of various dynamic factors. It represents the psychological characteristics of the driver in the process of vehicle operation and movement. It is an important factor to influence lane-changing. In this paper, dynamic recognition of driver's propensity is considered during simulation based on its time-varying discipline and the analysis of the driver's psycho-physic characteristics. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to quantify the hierarchy of driver's dynamic lane-changing decision-making process, especially the influence of the propensity. The model is validated using real data. Test results show that the developed lane-changing model with the dynamic consideration of a driver's time-varying propensity and the AHP method are feasible and with improved accuracy.

  18. The Dynamic VPN Controller. Secure Information Sharing in a Coalition Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-03-01

    coalitionName=" COALA "> <Security>Class A</Security> <Site siteName="SITE1"> <Remote> <Hostname>dvc.site1.com</Hostname> <IPAddress...34 COALA "> <Security>Class A</Security> <Site siteName="SITE1"> <Remote> <Hostname>dvc.site1.com</Hostname> <IPAddress>10.1.1.1

  19. Arresting Strategy Based on Dynamic Criminal Networks Changing over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junqing Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate a sequence of dynamic criminal networks on a time series based on the dynamic network analysis (DNA. According to the change of networks’ structure, networks’ variation trend is analyzed to forecast its future structure. Finally, an optimal arresting time and priority list are designed based on our analysis. Better results can be expected than that based on social network analysis (SNA.

  20. Shipment security update - 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patterson, John; Anne, Catherine

    2003-01-01

    At the 2002 RERTR, NAC reported on the interim measures taken by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to enhance the security afforded to shipments of spent nuclear fuel. Since that time, there have been a number of additional actions focused on shipment security including training programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Electric Power Research Council, investigation by the Government Accounting Office, and individual measures taken by shippers and transportation agents. The paper will present a status update regarding this dynamic set of events and provide an objective assessment of the cost, schedule and technical implications of the changing security landscape. (author)

  1. The Policy Trade-off Between Energy Security and Climate Change in the GCC States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahbek, Shaikha Ali

    Developing policies for energy security and climate change simultaneously can be very challenging as there is a trade-off. This research project strives to analyze the policies regarding the same that should be developed in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) States which are; Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman. Energy security is important in these countries because it is the prominent sector of their economies. Yet, the environment is being negatively impacted because of the energy production. There has been lot of international pressure on the GCC to divert its production and move towards clean energy production. It needs more research and development, as well as better economic diversification to maintain and improve the economic growth. Along with the literature review that has been used to study the cases and impacts of the GCC states, six in-depth interviews were conducted with professors, scholars and specialists in the environment and natural science fields to discuss about the GCC's situation. It has been alluded that the GCC states cannot be held solely responsible about the climate change because they are not the only energy producing nations in the world. Based on OPEC, there are 14 countries including the United States and China that also have prominent energy sectors. They should also be held accountable for the causes of environmental and climate change. This research provides recommendations for the GCC states to follow and apply in order to move forward with clean energy production, economic diversification and develop better policies.

  2. Adaptative synchronization in multi-output fractional-order complex dynamical networks and secure communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata-Machuca, Juan L.; Aguilar-López, Ricardo

    2018-01-01

    This work deals with the adaptative synchronization of complex dynamical networks with fractional-order nodes and its application in secure communications employing chaotic parameter modulation. The complex network is composed of multiple fractional-order systems with mismatch parameters and the coupling functions are given to realize the network synchronization. We introduce a fractional algebraic synchronizability condition (FASC) and a fractional algebraic identifiability condition (FAIC) which are used to know if the synchronization and parameters estimation problems can be solved. To overcome these problems, an adaptative synchronization methodology is designed; the strategy consists in proposing multiple receiver systems which tend to follow asymptotically the uncertain transmitters systems. The coupling functions and parameters of the receiver systems are adjusted continually according to a convenient sigmoid-like adaptative controller (SLAC), until the measurable output errors converge to zero, hence, synchronization between transmitter and receivers is achieved and message signals are recovered. Indeed, the stability analysis of the synchronization error is based on the fractional Lyapunov direct method. Finally, numerical results corroborate the satisfactory performance of the proposed scheme by means of the synchronization of a complex network consisting of several fractional-order unified chaotic systems.

  3. Dynamic (2, 3) Threshold Quantum Secret Sharing of Secure Direct Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai Hong; Xiao Jing-Hua; Mehmet, Orgun A.; Josef, Pieprzyk; Xue Li-Yin

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we show that a (2, 3) discrete variable threshold quantum secret sharing scheme of secure direct communication can be achieved based on recurrence using the same devices as in BB84. The scheme is devised by first placing the shares of smaller secret pieces into the shares of the largest secret piece, converting the shares of the largest secret piece into corresponding quantum state sequences, inserting nonorthogonal state particles into the quantum state sequences with the purpose of detecting eavesdropping, and finally sending the new quantum state sequences to the three participants respectively. Consequently, every particle can on average carry up to 1.5-bit messages due to the use of recurrence. The control codes are randomly prepared using the way to generate fountain codes with pre-shared source codes between Alice and Bob, making three participants can detect eavesdropping by themselves without sending classical messages to Alice. Due to the flexible encoding, our scheme is also dynamic, which means that it allows the participants to join and leave freely. (paper)

  4. Strengthening Sovereignty: Security and Sustainability in an Era of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rymn J. Parsons

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Using Pakistan and the Arctic as examples, this article examines security challenges arising from climate change. Pakistan is in crisis, and climate change, a transnational phenomenon perhaps better characterized as radical enviro-transformation, is an important reason. Its survival as a state may depend to great extent on how it responds to 2010’s devastating floods. In the Arctic, the ice cap is melting faster than predicted, as temperatures there rise faster than in almost any other region. Unmanaged, a complex interplay of climate-related conditions, including large-scale “ecomigration”, may turn resource competition into resource conflict. Radical enviro-transformation has repeatedly overborne the resilience of societies. War is not an inevitable by-product of such transformation, but in the 21st Century climate-related instability, from resource scarcity and “ecomigration”, will likely create increasingly undesirable conditions of insecurity. Weak and failing states are one of today’s greatest security challenges. The pace of radical enviro-transformation, unprecedented in human history, is accelerating, especially in the Arctic, where a new, open, rich, and accessible maritime environment is coming into being. The international community must work together to enhance security and stability, promote sustainability, and strengthen sovereignty. Radical enviro-transformation provides ample reason and plentiful opportunity for preventative, collaborative solutions focused broadly on adaptation to climate change, most particularly the effects of “ecomigration”. Nations must work together across the whole of government and with all instruments of national power to create conditions for human transformation—social, political, and economic—to occur stably and sustainably, so as to avoid or lessen the prospects for and consequences of conflict. Collaborative international solutions to environmental issues, i.e., solutions that

  5. Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

    2017-11-01

    The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

  6. Exploring the nexus between climate change, food security, and deforestation in Q'eqchi' Maya communities, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, I.; Harbor, J.

    2013-12-01

    The challenges of food security in the central Highlands of Guatemala are linked to deforestation, land degradation, and climate change. The Q'eqchi' Maya people that inhabit this region are smallholder farmers who rely on subsistence agriculture for survival. The Q'eqchi' support themselves with timber products and ecosystem services provided by the cloud forest, a unique ecosystem where a substantial portion of water is obtained through the condensation of water droplets onto vegetation via cloud filtration. Over the past 30 years, small-scale deforestation of the cloud forest in the Sierra Yalijux and Sacranix has increased as demand for agricultural land has risen. A link between the decline of cloud forest cover and an increase in severe precipitation events that drive soil erosion has been observed in the study area. As a result, land degradation poses a serious threat to the long-term food security of Q'eqchi' communities. We have examined the social, cultural, and land tenure dynamics that impact the ability of the Q'eqchi' to adapt to the rapidly changing climate, as well as to implement recommendations for grassroots initiatives to enhance these adaptations. Using remote-sensing we constructed three land use change maps that show that deforestation rates have increased by over 200% between 1986-2006 in the Sierra Yaljux and Sacranix mountain ranges, largely due to slash and burn agriculture. Using these land use change maps as an input into the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation we show that implementation of agroecological techniques to counter the impacts of land use change drastically reduces soil erosion and is the best management practice. Surveys and focus groups in several Q'eqchi' villages revealed that precipitation events have become less frequent and more intense over the past 30 years, and temperatures have generally been increasing as well. Q'eqchi' people have observed that increasing severe precipitation events have accelerated soil

  7. Genetic Contributions to Continuity and Change in Attachment Security: A Prospective, Longitudinal Investigation from Infancy to Young Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raby, K. Lee; Cicchetti, Dante; Carlson, Elizabeth A.; Egeland, Byron; Collins, W. Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Background Longitudinal research has demonstrated that individual differences in attachment security show only modest continuity from infancy to adulthood. Recent findings based on retrospective reports suggest that individuals’ genetic variation may moderate the developmental associations between early attachment-relevant relationship experiences and adult attachment security. The purpose of this study was to use a prospective, longitudinal design to investigate genetic contributions to continuity and changes in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood in a higher risk sample. Methods Infant attachment security was assessed using the Strange Situation Procedure at 12 and 18 months. Adults’ general attachment representations were assessed using the Adult Attachment Interview at age 19 and age 26. Romantic attachment representations were assessed with the Current Relationship Interview at ages 20–21 and ages 26–28. Individuals were genotyped for variants within the oxytocin receptor (OXTR), dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4), and serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). Results The continuity of attachment security from infancy into young adulthood was consistently moderated by OXTR genetic variation. Infant attachment security predicted the security of adults’ general and romantic attachment representations only for individuals with the OXTR G/G genotype. This interaction was significant when predicting adult attachment security as measured by the Adult Attachment Interview at age 19 and 26 and the Current Relationship Interview at ages 26–28. DRD4 and 5-HTTLPR genetic variation did not consistently moderate the longitudinal associations between attachment security during infancy and adulthood. Conclusions This study provides initial longitudinal evidence for genetic contributions to continuity and change in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood. Genetic variation related to the oxytocin system may moderate the

  8. Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk

  9. 76 FR 2728 - Securities Investor Protection Corporation; Order Approving a Proposed Bylaw Change Relating to...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-14

    ... on SIPC Members January 10, 2011. On October 8, 2010, the Securities Investor Protection Corporation... pursuant to Section 3(e)(1) of the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970 (``SIPA''), 15 U.S.C. 78ccc(e... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. SIPA-170; File No. SIPC-2010-01] Securities...

  10. Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vliet, Oscar van; Krey, Volker; McCollum, David; Pachauri, Shonali; Nagai, Yu; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan

    2012-01-01

    We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

  11. Security force-adversary engagement simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, H.A.

    1975-01-01

    A dynamic simulation of a security force-adversary engagement has been developed to obtain a better understanding of the complexities involved in security systems. Factors affecting engagement outcomes were identified and interrelated to represent an ambush of an escorted nuclear fuel truck convoy by an adversary group. Other forms of engagement such as assault and skirmish also can be simulated through suitable parameter changes. The dynamic model can provide a relative evaluation of changes in security force levels, equipment, training, and tactics. Continued application and subsequent refinements of the model are expected to augment the understanding of component interaction within a guard-based security system

  12. A Dynamic Linear Modeling Approach to Public Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loftis, Matthew; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre

    2017-01-01

    Theories of public policy change, despite their differences, converge on one point of strong agreement. The relationship between policy and its causes can and does change over time. This consensus yields numerous empirical implications, but our standard analytical tools are inadequate for testing...... them. As a result, the dynamic and transformative relationships predicted by policy theories have been left largely unexplored in time-series analysis of public policy. This paper introduces dynamic linear modeling (DLM) as a useful statistical tool for exploring time-varying relationships in public...... policy. The paper offers a detailed exposition of the DLM approach and illustrates its usefulness with a time series analysis of U.S. defense policy from 1957-2010. The results point the way for a new attention to dynamics in the policy process and the paper concludes with a discussion of how...

  13. Dynamic context logic and its application to norm change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aucher, G.; Grossi, D.; Herzig, A.; Lorini, E.

    2009-01-01

    Building on a simple modal logic of context, the paper presents a dynamic logic characterizing operations of contraction and expansion on theories. We investigate the mathematical properties of the logic, and use it to develop an axiomatic and semantic analysis of norm change in normative systems.

  14. The Feldenkrais Method: A Dynamic Approach to Changing Motor Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Patricia A.; Ulrich, Beverly D.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Feldenkrais Method of somatic education, noting parallels with a dynamic systems theory (DST) approach to motor behavior. Feldenkrais uses movement and perception to foster individualized improvement in function. DST explains that a human-environment system continually adapts to changing conditions and assembles behaviors…

  15. Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wheeler, Timothy A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, R. A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities. iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.

  16. The Influence of Globalization on the Change and Convergence of Social Security Transfer: An Empirical Analysis for OECD Counties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyoung Hwang

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Using a cross-section of OECD countries, this paper examines the relationship between globalization and the change and convergence of social security transfer. Globalization has arguably had a profound impact on the use of social protection in states, since it is normally accompanied with increases in income inequality, polarization, and unemployment. In addition, globalization may lead to socio- economic policy harmonization across countries. The empirical results show that there exists a significant and positive relationship between social security transfer in GDP and the globalization index based on political, economic, and social integrations. Also, we found the convergence phenomenon of social security transfer in OECD countries, applying the traditional methodology of convergence and convergence. Therefore, there is evidence in OECD countries that globalization indirectly affects the convergence of social security transfer in addition to direct relation to social security transfer in GDP.

  17. Institutional change in European natural gas markets and implications for energy security: Lessons from the German case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westphal, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on institutional change in the German gas market driven by EU internal market and climate policies. It argues that institutional change has functional externalities for energy security. The German gas market provides a useful case study, as Germany is the biggest continental gas market, a major hub and transport country which has largely privatised, unbundled and separated its natural gas undertakings. Transition is ongoing, tending towards an internal market. Inter/national natural gas economics is in flux. Institutional evolution has repercussions for corporate and market structures, the operating of the system and the realization of transactions. Changes in the institutional framework crucially affect energy security, which is often associated with institutional stability. On the basis of this case study, it is argued herein that the security of natural gas supplies should be reexamined in the context of the developments described above, since overall the institutional changes in natural gas security lag behind the EU’s internal natural gas market development. - Highlights: • EU natural gas market regulation primarily aims to establish competitive markets. • German/EU regulatory approach has externalities for supply security. • Institutional changes and breaks with path dependencies take place in Germany/the EU. • Institutional change results in increasing uncertainty and complexity. • Subsequent change in perceptions and expectations may destabilise trade relations

  18. Fundamental limits on quantum dynamics based on entropy change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Siddhartha; Khatri, Sumeet; Siopsis, George; Wilde, Mark M.

    2018-01-01

    It is well known in the realm of quantum mechanics and information theory that the entropy is non-decreasing for the class of unital physical processes. However, in general, the entropy does not exhibit monotonic behavior. This has restricted the use of entropy change in characterizing evolution processes. Recently, a lower bound on the entropy change was provided in the work of Buscemi, Das, and Wilde [Phys. Rev. A 93(6), 062314 (2016)]. We explore the limit that this bound places on the physical evolution of a quantum system and discuss how these limits can be used as witnesses to characterize quantum dynamics. In particular, we derive a lower limit on the rate of entropy change for memoryless quantum dynamics, and we argue that it provides a witness of non-unitality. This limit on the rate of entropy change leads to definitions of several witnesses for testing memory effects in quantum dynamics. Furthermore, from the aforementioned lower bound on entropy change, we obtain a measure of non-unitarity for unital evolutions.

  19. Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

    2015-03-01

    System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

  20. Indonesian CPO availability analysis to support food and energy security: a system dynamic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, T.; Arkeman, Y.; Setyaningsih, D.; Saparita, R.

    2017-05-01

    The development of biofuels could be a solution to overcome the energy problem. One of biofuel that has the potential to be developed, namely palm oil biodiesel that is also the raw material for food. As a provider of CPO raw materials, the production of palm biodiesel could trigger competitions, from biofuels demand growth and utilization of agricultural resources. Thus, it needs to be analyzed to determine the adequency of CPO supply to fulfill the need of food and policy recomendation which sets the development of palm oil biodiesel can be synergies with food need especially for the supply of raw material CPO. To obtain the optimal policy in the synergy between the raw material of CPO for food and energy is a need to establish some policy scenarios that allow to be applied and then chosen the best policy alternative of all scenarios. The purpose of this research were to : 1) analysis the availability of CPO to meet the needs of food and energy, 2) provide policy recommendation with regard biodiesel development of food security. The model made used system dynamic method. Several scenarios that used in the model are: 1) existing condition, 2) The scenario increase biodiesel production capacity and increase land productivity, 3) reduction scenario CPO export by 30%, 4) scenario use othe raw material for biodiesel by 20%. The simulation results showed the availability of CPO raw materials would answer all needs of both food and biodiesel when there was an increase in productivity, diversification of raw materials, and also a reduction in palm oil exports. It was needed an integrated policy from upstream to downstream along with the consistency of implementation. Policy suggestions that could be considered were increased productivity through agricultural intensification, enforcement disincentive policies of CPO to exports, and development of non-CPO biodiesel raw materials and development of renewable energy.

  1. Discrete-Event Simulation with Agents for Modeling of Dynamic Asymmetric Threats in Maritime Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ng, Chee W

    2007-01-01

    .... Discrete-event simulation (DES) was used to simulate a typical port-security, local, waterside-threat response model and to test the adaptive response of asymmetric threats in reaction to port-security procedures, while a multi-agent system (MAS...

  2. A Secure, Scalable and Elastic Autonomic Computing Systems Paradigm: Supporting Dynamic Adaptation of Self-* Services from an Autonomic Cloud

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Jaleel

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Autonomic computing embeds self-management features in software systems using external feedback control loops, i.e., autonomic managers. In existing models of autonomic computing, adaptive behaviors are defined at the design time, autonomic managers are statically configured, and the running system has a fixed set of self-* capabilities. An autonomic computing design should accommodate autonomic capability growth by allowing the dynamic configuration of self-* services, but this causes security and integrity issues. A secure, scalable and elastic autonomic computing system (SSE-ACS paradigm is proposed to address the runtime inclusion of autonomic managers, ensuring secure communication between autonomic managers and managed resources. Applying the SSE-ACS concept, a layered approach for the dynamic adaptation of self-* services is presented with an online ‘Autonomic_Cloud’ working as the middleware between Autonomic Managers (offering the self-* services and Autonomic Computing System (requiring the self-* services. A stock trading and forecasting system is used for simulation purposes. The security impact of the SSE-ACS paradigm is verified by testing possible attack cases over the autonomic computing system with single and multiple autonomic managers running on the same and different machines. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS metric shows a decrease in the vulnerability severity score from high (8.8 for existing ACS to low (3.9 for SSE-ACS. Autonomic managers are introduced into the system at runtime from the Autonomic_Cloud to test the scalability and elasticity. With elastic AMs, the system optimizes the Central Processing Unit (CPU share resulting in an improved execution time for business logic. For computing systems requiring the continuous support of self-management services, the proposed system achieves a significant improvement in security, scalability, elasticity, autonomic efficiency, and issue resolving time

  3. Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

    2010-01-01

    Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

  4. Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

    2017-10-01

    Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

  5. Dynamics and life histories of northern ungulates in changing environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrichsen, D. K.

    2011-12-01

    Regional climate and local weather conditions can profoundly influence life history parameters (growth, survival, fecundity) and population dynamics in northern ungulates (Post and Stenseth 1999, Coulson et al. 2001). The influence is both direct, for example through reduced growth or survival (Aanes et al. 2000, Tyler et al. 2008), and indirect, for example through changes in resource distribution, phenology and quality, changes which subsequently influence consumer dynamics (Post et al. 2008). By comparing and contrasting data from three spatially independent populations of ungulates, I discuss how variation in local weather parameters and vegetation growth influence spatial and temporal dynamics through changes in life history parameters and/or behavioural dynamics. The data originate from long term (11-15 years) monitoring data from three populations of ungulates in one subarctic and two high Arctic sites; semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in northern Norway, Svalbard reindeer (R. t. platyrhynchus) on Spitsbergen and muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in Northeast Greenland. The results show that juvenile animals can be particularly vulnerable to changes in their environment, and that this is mirrored to different degrees in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the three populations. Adverse weather conditions, acting either directly or mediated through access to and quality of vegetation, experienced by young early in life, or even by their dams during pregnancy, can lead to reduced growth, lower survival and reduced reproductive performance later in life. The influence of current climatic variation, and the predictions of how local weather conditions may change over time, differs between the three sites, resulting in potentially different responses in the three populations. Aanes R, Saether BE and Øritsland NA. 2000. Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation. Ecography

  6. Climate change is about the future of our land, our resilience and our security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbut, Monique

    2014-04-01

    While the IPCC report focuses on the impacts of climate change and warns of the possibility of increased floods, drought, conflict and economic losses if carbon emissions continue unabated, it fails to capture the key role of adaptation; that is, ecosystem-based solutions for managing climate risks. According to the author, these solutions are at hand without additional finance; all that is required is a realignment of investment flows. This should not be seen as a threat to vested interests but rather as an opportunity for more equitable development. Investing in practical solutions that transform lives and increase adaptive capacity would be cheaper and work better than investing in walls, wars and relief. Improving the resilience and well-being of the rural poor and other land-dependent communities will improve our own well-being, our national security, and help ensure international stability today and in the future

  7. Glacial cycles: exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, K.

    2010-04-01

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

  8. Application of learning from examples methods for on-line dynamic security assessment of electric power systems - state of the art

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pecas Lopes, J.A. [Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal). Faculdade de Engenharia] Hatziargyriou, Nikos D. [National Technical University of Athens, Athens (Greece)

    1994-12-31

    This paper provides an overview of the application of `learning from examples` techniques like pattern recognition, artificial neural networks and decision trees, when used for fast dynamic security assessment. Problems concerning the system security evaluation relatively to transient stability and voltage stability are addressed with more details and references to research works in this field are briefly described. (author) 44 refs., 3 tabs.

  9. EDITORIAL: Changes to Fluid Dynamics Research in 2009 Changes to Fluid Dynamics Research in 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funakoshi, Mitsuaki

    2009-02-01

    Welcome to the first issue of the modified Fluid Dynamics Research (FDR) journal, which is now being published by IOP Publishing on behalf of the Japan Society of Fluid Mechanics. Since its launch in 1986, FDR has become a well-established international journal that publishes theoretical, numerical and experimental studies contributing to the fundamental understanding and application of fluid phenomena. It has also been an invaluable resource for physicists and researchers in engineering interested in problems relevant to the motion of fluids. From 2009, FDR will be edited by a new international Editorial Board, with the strong intention of establishing the journal further and bringing it to a wider audience. In this new-look FDR, which will be published six times per year, readers will find several special sections containing high quality invited reviews and papers written by leading researchers who have been selected by the international Editorial Board. This is in addition to the regular papers on a variety of topical subjects by active researchers in the field. As before, there are no publication charges for standard articles, and now article numbering has been adopted, enabling accepted papers to be published online more quickly, ahead of print publication. In order to maintain a balanced and up-to-date perspective, we welcome feedback from our readers regarding the content of the journal, as well as suggestions for topics to cover and areas to highlight. Finally, I would like to thank our authors, members of the international Editorial Board, and the staff at IOP Publishing for producing this first issue. We hope you will enjoy reading this renewed and exciting journal for the international fluid dynamics community.

  10. A Facile Synthesis of Dynamic, Shape Changing Polymer Particles

    OpenAIRE

    Klinger, Daniel; Wang, Cynthia; Connal, Luke A.; Audus, Debra J.; Jang, Se Gyu; Kraemer, Stephan; Killops, Kato L.; Fredrickson, Glenn H.; Kramer, Edward J.; Hawker, Craig J.

    2014-01-01

    We herein report a new facile strategy to ellipsoidal block copolymer nanoparticles exhibiting a pH-triggered anistropic swelling profile. In a first step, elongated particles with an axially stacked lamellae structure are selectively prepared by utilizing functional surfactants to control the phase separation of symmetric PS-b-P2VP in dispersed droplets. In a second step, the dynamic shape change is realized by crosslinking the P2VP domains, hereby connecting glassy PS discs with pH-sensitiv...

  11. Dynamics of systems and change in the accounting paradigm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Luis Juliao Rossi

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this document is to demonstrate the potential of the dynamics of systems as a thinking trend which may help in the understanding process and the construction of an accounting paradigm change. This objective is framed inside a wider purpose: to propase interdisciplinary encounters that contribute to the necessary paradigm change. The described problem is studied from the «System Thinking», which is an approach with theoretical framework and representation and simulation tools related to the tapie.

  12. Dynamic Changes in Sarcoplasmic Reticulum Structure in Ventricular Myocytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda L. Vega

    2011-01-01

    sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR and the sarcolemma where Ca2+ release is activated. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the SR is a structurally inert organelle in ventricular myocytes. Our data suggest that rather than being static, the SR undergoes frequent dynamic structural changes. SR boutons expressing functional ryanodine receptors moved throughout the cell, approaching or moving away from the sarcolemma of ventricular myocytes. These changes in SR structure occurred in the absence of changes in [Ca2+] during EC coupling. Microtubules and the molecular motors dynein and kinesin 1(Kif5b were important regulators of SR motility. These findings support a model in which the SR is a motile organelle capable of molecular motor protein-driven structural changes.

  13. Impact of climate change on food security in southwest coastal region of bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, S.; Rahman, A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of climate change on food security of the population residing in the coastal area of Bangladesh. Based on multistage random sampling technique, a survey was conducted to collect socioeconomic and food datasets of the people affected by extreme climate events in the country. The study found that climate change caused food insecurity in the region; it led to greater dependence on pond and rain water for cooking food and water intake. Catastrophe due to extreme weather events adversely affected the livelihoods and level of income. The severe cyclonic storms, Sidr (November 2007) and Alia (May 2009) severely affected the vulnerable people of this region, especially the extremely poor. The study came out with several coping strategies to address adverse effects of climate change, including rehabilitation with income and employment generating activities and development training; alternative livelihood adaptation practices; access to subsidized inputs and credits; introduction of crop calendar; conservation of arable and fellow land; and innovation of saline-tolerant, heat-resistant, moderate water consuming and short-rotation crops for the coastal people. (author)

  14. Climate change and water security with a focus on the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengard

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Water is of fundamental importance for human life; access to water of good quality is of vital concern for mankind. Currently however, the situation is under severe pressure due to several stressors that have a clear impact on access to water. In the Arctic, climate change is having an impact on water availability by melting glaciers, decreasing seasonal rates of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration, and drying lakes and rivers existing in permafrost grounds. Water quality is also being impacted as manmade pollutants stored in the environment are released, lowland areas are flooded with salty ocean water during storms, turbidity from permafrost-driven thaw and erosion is increased, and the growth or emergence of natural pollutants are increased. By 2030 it is estimated that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy which means a continuous increase in demand for water. Decisionmakers will have to very clearly include life quality aspects of future generations in the work as impact of ongoing changes will be noticeable, in many cases, in the future. This article will focus on effects of climate-change on water security with an Arctic perspective giving some examples from different countries how arising problems are being addressed.

  15. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Arturo Orjuela Castro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC. This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  16. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Javier Arturo Orjuela; Jaimes, Wilson Adarme

    2017-07-01

    Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  17. Dynamic impact of the structure of the supply chain of perishable foods on logistics performance and food security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro, Javier Arturo Orjuela; Jaimes, Wilson Adarme

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how the structure affects logistical performance and food security is critical in the supply chains of perishable foods (PFSC). This research proposes a system dynamics model to analyze the effects of structures: lean, agile, flexible, responsive and resilient, in the overall performance and of each agent of the PFSC. Design/methodology/approach: Using a system dynamics model and design of experiments it is studied how the different structures and their combination, affect the behavior of inventory, transportation, responsiveness, efficiency, availability and quality-safety of the fresh fruits supply chain and each echelon. Findings: The studies of supply chains have been done for each structure in an independent way; investigations are scarce in supply chains of perishable foods. The structures modeled in this research do not show the better performance in all the metrics of the chain, neither in all agents for each structure. The above implies the presence of trade-offs. Research limitations/implications: The results show the need to investigate mixed structures with the FPSC´s own characteristics; the model can be applied in other supply chains of perishable foods. Practical implications: Management by combining structures in the FFSC, improves logistics performance and contributes to food security. Social implications: The agents of the FFSC can apply the structures found in this study, to improve their logistics performance and the food security. Originality/value: The dynamics of individual and combined structures were identified, which constitutes a contribution to the discussion in the literature of such problems for FFSC. The model includes six echelons: farmers, wholesalers, agro-industry, third-party logistics operators and retailers. The dynamic contemplates deterioration rate to model perishability and others losses.

  18. Methodology for evaluation of economic security of industrial enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Kopytko Marta Ivanovna

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the features of evaluation of ensuring economic security of industrial enterprises and the algorithm of complex evaluation of the economic security of industrial enterprises over time and the system of criteria and their limit values ​​and the dynamics of change to determine the level of economic security industrial enterprise in terms of its components.

  19. Dynamics of energy systems: Methods of analysing technology change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neij, Lena

    1999-05-01

    Technology change will have a central role in achieving a sustainable energy system. This calls for methods of analysing the dynamics of energy systems in view of technology change and policy instruments for effecting and accelerating technology change. In this thesis, such methods have been developed, applied, and assessed. Two types of methods have been considered, methods of analysing and projecting the dynamics of future technology change and methods of evaluating policy instruments effecting technology change, i.e. market transformation programmes. Two methods are focused on analysing the dynamics of future technology change; vintage models and experience curves. Vintage models, which allow for complex analysis of annual streams of energy and technological investments, are applied to the analysis of the time dynamics of electricity demand for lighting and air-distribution in Sweden. The results of the analyses show that the Swedish electricity demand for these purposes could decrease over time, relative to a reference scenario, if policy instruments are used. Experience curves are used to provide insight into the prospects of diffusion of wind turbines and photo voltaic (PV) modules due to cost reduction. The results show potential for considerable cost reduction for wind-generated electricity, which, in turn, could lead to major diffusion of wind turbines. The results also show that major diffusion of PV modules, and a reduction of PV generated electricity down to the level of conventional base-load electricity, will depend on large investments in bringing the costs down (through R D and D, market incentives and investments in niche markets) or the introduction of new generations of PV modules (e.g. high-efficiency mass-produced thin-film cells). Moreover, a model has been developed for the evaluation of market transformation programmes, i.e. policy instruments that effect technology change and the introduction and commercialisation of energy

  20. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  1. Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: implications for Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Islam M; Parveen, Saila

    2004-10-01

    Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm3, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.

  2. The impacts of climate change and carbon emissions reductions on energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahinpey, N.; Asghari, K.; Wilson, M.

    2007-01-01

    The changes occurring in the energy sector were discussed with particular reference to the potential impacts of climate change and responses to climate change on an electrical system in Saskatchewan, a northern sub-humid to semi-arid environment in a continental interior. Grid electricity is supplied primarily by fossil fuels and is made up of a mix of coal, natural gas, water and imports, with some minor wind power and diesel delivery. Most of this power is coal generated along the southern border with the United States. The public utility SaskPower generates, transmits and delivers the electricity. Although electrical supply in the province is not deregulated, the utility is influenced by the changes that are occurring in other jurisdictions. The effects on power generation resulting from climate change will include water quality and availability as well as changing the time of peak electrical loads on the system. From the perspective of hydroelectricity, the utility will be required to rely more on water from the spring snow melt in the mountains to the west. This is an unreliable source of water in that quantities could vary greatly from year to year. This paper also discussed the constraints faced by SaskPower in maintaining competitive energy prices and a reliable system without significantly increasing energy imports. These constraints include dealing with the impacts of climate change on the system; facing the threat of carbon constraints in a Kyoto or post-Kyoto world; assessing the risk of reduced surplus capacity beyond provincial boundaries; and, dealing with fuel supply issues. It was determined that the combination of a changing electricity market in North America along with the physical impacts of climate change on electrical generation and regulations that impose a reduction in the level of greenhouse gas emissions from utilities will result in significant issues for security of supply. It was suggested that the utility will need to evaluate supply

  3. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  4. A Systematic Approach for Dynamic Security Assessment and the Corresponding Preventive Control Scheme Based on Decision Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Leo; Sun, Kai; Rather, Zakir Hussain

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a decision tree (DT)-based systematic approach for cooperative online power system dynamic security assessment (DSA) and preventive control. This approach adopts a new methodology that trains two contingency-oriented DTs on a daily basis by the databases generated from power...... system simulations. Fed with real-time wide-area measurements, one DT of measurable variables is employed for online DSA to identify potential security issues, and the other DT of controllable variables provides online decision support on preventive control strategies against those issues. A cost......-effective algorithm is adopted in this proposed approach to optimize the trajectory of preventive control. The paper also proposes an importance sampling algorithm on database preparation for efficient DT training for power systems with high penetration of wind power and distributed generation. The performance...

  5. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Hall, Jim; Garrick, Dustin; Sadoff, Claudia; Grey, David; Whittington, Dale

    2016-04-01

    Investments in the physical infrastructure, human capital, and institutions needed for water resources management have been a noteworthy feature in the development of most civilisations. These investments affect the economy in two distinct ways: (i) by improving the factor productivity of water in multiple sectors of the economy, especially those that are water intensive such as agriculture and energy; and (ii) by reducing the acute and chronic harmful effects of water-related hazards like floods, droughts, and water-related diseases. The need for capital investment to mitigate these risks in order to promote economic growth is widely acknowledged, but prior work to conceptualise the relationship between water-related risks and economic growth has focused on the productive and harmful roles of water in the economy independently. Here the two influences are combined using a simple, dynamical model of water-related investment, risk, and growth at the national level. The model suggests the existence of a context-specific threshold above which growth proceeds along an 'S'-curve. In many cases there is a requirement for initial investment in water-related assets to enable growth. Below the threshold it is possible for a poverty trap to arise. The presence and location of the poverty trap is context-specific and depends on the relative exposure of productive water-related assets to risk, compared with risks faced by assets in the wider economy. Exogenous changes in the level of water-related risk (through, for example, climate and land cover change) can potentially push an economy away from a growth path towards a poverty trap. These results illustrate the value of accounting for environmental risk in models of economic growth and may offer guidance in the design of robust policies for investment in water-related productive assets to manage risk, particularly in the face of global and regional environmental change.

  6. The Mathematics of Psychotherapy: A Nonlinear Model of Change Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiepek, Gunter; Aas, Benjamin; Viol, Kathrin

    2016-07-01

    Psychotherapy is a dynamic process produced by a complex system of interacting variables. Even though there are qualitative models of such systems the link between structure and function, between network and network dynamics is still missing. The aim of this study is to realize these links. The proposed model is composed of five state variables (P: problem severity, S: success and therapeutic progress, M: motivation to change, E: emotions, I: insight and new perspectives) interconnected by 16 functions. The shape of each function is modified by four parameters (a: capability to form a trustful working alliance, c: mentalization and emotion regulation, r: behavioral resources and skills, m: self-efficacy and reward expectation). Psychologically, the parameters play the role of competencies or traits, which translate into the concept of control parameters in synergetics. The qualitative model was transferred into five coupled, deterministic, nonlinear difference equations generating the dynamics of each variable as a function of other variables. The mathematical model is able to reproduce important features of psychotherapy processes. Examples of parameter-dependent bifurcation diagrams are given. Beyond the illustrated similarities between simulated and empirical dynamics, the model has to be further developed, systematically tested by simulated experiments, and compared to empirical data.

  7. Functional coordination of muscles underlying changes in behavioural dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernooij, Carlijn A; Rao, Guillaume; Perdikis, Dionysios; Huys, Raoul; Jirsa, Viktor K; Temprado, Jean-Jacques

    2016-06-10

    The dynamical systems approach addresses Bernstein's degrees of freedom problem by assuming that the neuro-musculo-skeletal system transiently assembles and dismantles its components into functional units (or synergies) to meet task demands. Strikingly, little is known from a dynamical point of view about the functioning of the muscular sub-system in this process. To investigate the interaction between the dynamical organisation at muscular and behavioural levels, we searched for specific signatures of a phase transition in muscular coordination when a transition is displayed at the behavioural level. Our results provide evidence that, during Fitts' task when behaviour switches to a different dynamical regime, muscular activation displays typical signatures of a phase transition; a reorganisation in muscular coordination patterns accompanied by a peak in the variability of muscle activation. This suggests that consistent changes occur in coordination processes across the different levels of description (i.e., behaviour and muscles). Specifically, in Fitts' task, target size acts as a control parameter that induces a destabilisation and a reorganisation of coordination patterns at different levels of the neuro-musculo-skeletal system.

  8. Optimization of airport security process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jianan

    2017-05-01

    In order to facilitate passenger travel, on the basis of ensuring public safety, the airport security process and scheduling to optimize. The stochastic Petri net is used to simulate the single channel security process, draw the reachable graph, construct the homogeneous Markov chain to realize the performance analysis of the security process network, and find the bottleneck to limit the passenger throughput. Curve changes in the flow of passengers to open a security channel for the initial state. When the passenger arrives at a rate that exceeds the processing capacity of the security channel, it is queued. The passenger reaches the acceptable threshold of the queuing time as the time to open or close the next channel, simulate the number of dynamic security channel scheduling to reduce the passenger queuing time.

  9. Linking human health, climate change, and food security through ecological-based sanitation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryals, R.; Kramer, S.; Porder, S.; Andersen, G. L.

    2015-12-01

    effective at achieving multiple sustainability goals including the provision of sanitation, mitigating climate change, and increasing food security.

  10. Phase change energy storage for solar dynamic power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiaramonte, F. P.; Taylor, J. D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a transient computer simulation that was developed to study phase change energy storage techniques for Space Station Freedom (SSF) solar dynamic (SD) power systems. Such SD systems may be used in future growth SSF configurations. Two solar dynamic options are considered in this paper: Brayton and Rankine. Model elements consist of a single node receiver and concentrator, and takes into account overall heat engine efficiency and power distribution characteristics. The simulation not only computes the energy stored in the receiver phase change material (PCM), but also the amount of the PCM required for various combinations of load demands and power system mission constraints. For a solar dynamic power system in low earth orbit, the amount of stored PCM energy is calculated by balancing the solar energy input and the energy consumed by the loads corrected by an overall system efficiency. The model assumes an average 75 kW SD power system load profile which is connected to user loads via dedicated power distribution channels. The model then calculates the stored energy in the receiver and subsequently estimates the quantity of PCM necessary to meet peaking and contingency requirements. The model can also be used to conduct trade studies on the performance of SD power systems using different storage materials.

  11. Distributed UAV-Swarm Real-Time Geomatic Data Collection Under Dynamically Changing Resolution Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Miguel; Hildmann, Hanno; Solmaz, Gürkan

    2017-08-01

    Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been used for reconnaissance and surveillance missions as far back as the Vietnam War, but with the recent rapid increase in autonomy, precision and performance capabilities - and due to the massive reduction in cost and size - UAVs have become pervasive products, available and affordable for the general public. The use cases for UAVs are in the areas of disaster recovery, environmental mapping & protection and increasingly also as extended eyes and ears of civil security forces such as fire-fighters and emergency response units. In this paper we present a swarm algorithm that enables a fleet of autonomous UAVs to collectively perform sensing tasks related to environmental and rescue operations and to dynamically adapt to e.g. changing resolution requirements. We discuss the hardware used to build our own drones and the settings under which we validate the proposed approach.

  12. Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.

  13. Study of Dynamic Characteristics of Slow-Changing Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinong Li

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A vibration system with slow-changing parameters is a typical nonlinear system. Such systems often occur in the working and controlled process of some intelligent structures when vibration and deformation exist synchronously. In this paper, a system with slow-changing stiffness, damping and mass is analyzed in an intelligent structure. The relationship between the amplitude and the frequency of the system is studied, and its dynamic characteristic is also discussed. Finally, a piecewise linear method is developed on the basis of the asymptotic method. The simulation and the experiment show that a suitable slow-changing stiffness can restrain the amplitude of the system when the system passes through the resonant region.

  14. Energy security and climate change: How oil endowment influences alternative vehicle innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Eun

    2014-01-01

    Fast growing global energy needs raise concerns on energy supply security and climate change. Although policies addressing the two issues sometimes benefit one at the expense of the other, technology innovation, especially in alternative energy, provides a win–win solution to tackle both issues. This paper examines the effect of oil endowment on the patterns of technology innovation in the transportation sector, attempting to identify drivers of technology innovation in alternative energy. The analysis employs panel data constructed from patent data on five different types of automobile-related technologies from 1990 to 2002: oil extraction, petroleum refining, fuel cells, electric and hybrid vehicles (EHV) and vehicle energy efficiency. I find that countries with larger oil endowments perform less innovation on refining and alternative technologies. Conversely, higher gasoline prices positively impact the patent counts of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. The findings highlight the challenges and importance of policy designs in international climate change agreements. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of oil endowment on technology innovation in the transportation sector. • An empirical model was developed for a cross-country analysis of oil endowments. • A country's oil endowment is a negative driver of alternative technologies. • Energy price is a positive driver of alternative technologies and energy efficiency technology. • Implications for domestic and international climate policy are discussed

  15. The Firewall and Security of Information Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Radut Carmen; Albici Mihaela; Tenovici Cristina Otilia

    2010-01-01

    Information security is a broader concept which refers to ensuring the integrity, confidentiality and availability of information. The dynamics of information technology to induce new risks to which organizations must implement new measures of control. Technological development has been accompanied by security solutions, equipment manufacturers and applications including technical methods of protection performance. However, while in information technology change is exponential, the human comp...

  16. The Change in The Activity of The American Intelligence Services in The Security Context of the Last 24 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgescu - Stefan

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The security events dynamics poses an overwhelming challenge for the decision makers’political agenda, priorities. The wide range of risks and rhythm of significant security events determine a difficult enterprise for security theories. A scientific analysis of the security evolutions entails a profound historical introspection and an appropriate understanding of the security events with significant impact over the global evolutions. Probably in the next period of time, hundreds of papers will be written regarding the period since 9/11. The aim of this paper is to provide a perspective over the security context, and the intelligence services activity of the last 15 years, period of time dramatically divided by the unprecedented shock and suffering in the history of the from 9/11. The reorganization of the Western Intelligence Community was ordered as a result of the September 11th attacks and with future counterterrorism efforts in mind. Specifically, the 9/11 terrorists exploited the wall between the U.S.’s foreign and domestic intelligence collection efforts, and yet the IRTPA and EO 12333 avoid the issue of how to best integrate foreign and domestic intelligence while minimizing the threat to civil liberties. This manner in which the Western Countries separates its foreign and domestic intelligence collection is particularly exploitable by terrorists and non-state actors–those currently posing one of the most serious threats to international security. To ensure both the best intelligence integration possible as well as the defense of civil liberties, clear and sensible rules should be formed which dictate how intelligence from these two spheres is collected and in what way and at what level it is integrated and disseminated.

  17. Predicting Mood Changes in Bipolar Disorder through Heartbeat Nonlinear Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenza, Gaetano; Nardelli, Mimma; Lanata', Antonio; Gentili, Claudio; Bertschy, Gilles; Kosel, Markus; Scilingo, Enzo Pasquale

    2016-04-20

    Bipolar Disorder (BD) is characterized by an alternation of mood states from depression to (hypo)mania. Mixed states, i.e., a combination of depression and mania symptoms at the same time, can also be present. The diagnosis of this disorder in the current clinical practice is based only on subjective interviews and questionnaires, while no reliable objective psychophysiological markers are available. Furthermore, there are no biological markers predicting BD outcomes, or providing information about the future clinical course of the phenomenon. To overcome this limitation, here we propose a methodology predicting mood changes in BD using heartbeat nonlinear dynamics exclusively, derived from the ECG. Mood changes are here intended as transitioning between two mental states: euthymic state (EUT), i.e., the good affective balance, and non-euthymic (non-EUT) states. Heart Rate Variability (HRV) series from 14 bipolar spectrum patients (age: 33.439.76, age range: 23-54; 6 females) involved in the European project PSYCHE, undergoing whole night ECG monitoring were analyzed. Data were gathered from a wearable system comprised of a comfortable t-shirt with integrated fabric electrodes and sensors able to acquire ECGs. Each patient was monitored twice a week, for 14 weeks, being able to perform normal (unstructured) activities. From each acquisition, the longest artifact-free segment of heartbeat dynamics was selected for further analyses. Sub-segments of 5 minutes of this segment were used to estimate trends of HRV linear and nonlinear dynamics. Considering data from a current observation at day t0, and past observations at days (t1, t2,...,), personalized prediction accuracies in forecasting a mood state (EUT/non-EUT) at day t+1 were 69% on average, reaching values as high as 83.3%. This approach opens to the possibility of predicting mood states in bipolar patients through heartbeat nonlinear dynamics exclusively.

  18. Urbanization Changes the Temporal Dynamics of Nutrients and Water Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, M.; Badgley, B.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies find that urban development alters the seasonal dynamics of nutrient concentrations, where the highest concentrations of nitrogen occurred during the winter in urban watersheds, rather than the summer. However, the effects of urbanization on the seasonal concentrations of other nutrients and chemical components is unknown. Therefore, to determine how urbanization changes the seasonal dynamics, once a week we measured concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nutrients (NO3, DON, TN, PO4), base cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K), anions (F, Cl, SO4), pH, sediment, temperature, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen (DO) of nine urban, agricultural, and minimally developed watersheds in southwest Virginia, USA. We found that urbanization disrupted the seasonal dynamics of all metrics, except DON, PO4, Ca, sediment, and DO, where some shifted to high concentrations during the winter (Cl, conductivity), highs during late winter or spring (DOC, Na), a season low (TN, SO4, NO3) or high (NH4) during the summer, or remained more constant throughout the year compared to the reference watersheds (Mg, K, pH). The complex changes in seasonal dynamics coincide with a decoupling of common correlations between constituents; for example, DO and NO3 are negatively correlated in reference watersheds (NO3 increases, DO decreases), but positively correlated in urban watersheds. These results suggest that as watersheds become more intensely developed, the influence of natural drivers like temperature and vegetation become steadily overcome by the influence of urban drivers like deicing salts and wastewater leakage, which exert increasing control of seasonal water quality and aquatic habitat.

  19. Synaptic vesicle dynamic changes in a model of fragile X.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broek, Jantine A C; Lin, Zhanmin; de Gruiter, H Martijn; van 't Spijker, Heleen; Haasdijk, Elize D; Cox, David; Ozcan, Sureyya; van Cappellen, Gert W A; Houtsmuller, Adriaan B; Willemsen, Rob; de Zeeuw, Chris I; Bahn, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is a single-gene disorder that is the most common heritable cause of intellectual disability and the most frequent monogenic cause of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). FXS is caused by an expansion of trinucleotide repeats in the promoter region of the fragile X mental retardation gene (Fmr1). This leads to a lack of fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP), which regulates translation of a wide range of messenger RNAs (mRNAs). The extent of expression level alterations of synaptic proteins affected by FMRP loss and their consequences on synaptic dynamics in FXS has not been fully investigated. Here, we used an Fmr1 knockout (KO) mouse model to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying FXS by monitoring protein expression changes using shotgun label-free liquid-chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS(E)) in brain tissue and synaptosome fractions. FXS-associated candidate proteins were validated using selected reaction monitoring (SRM) in synaptosome fractions for targeted protein quantification. Furthermore, functional alterations in synaptic release and dynamics were evaluated using live-cell imaging, and interpretation of synaptic dynamics differences was investigated using electron microscopy. Key findings relate to altered levels of proteins involved in GABA-signalling, especially in the cerebellum. Further exploration using microscopy studies found reduced synaptic vesicle unloading of hippocampal neurons and increased vesicle unloading in cerebellar neurons, which suggests a general decrease of synaptic transmission. Our findings suggest that FMRP is a regulator of synaptic vesicle dynamics, which supports the role of FMRP in presynaptic functions. Taken together, these studies provide novel insights into the molecular changes associated with FXS.

  20. The evolution of central securities depositaries in Europe: stable functions in a changing environment

    OpenAIRE

    Dominique Chabert; Gisèle Chanel-Reynaud

    2006-01-01

    National audience; Settlement-delivery (S&D) operations of CSDs or ICSDs are the second last stage of the securities treatment procedure, the last stage being the delivery of securities into the accounts of the final holders by their account managers/custodians. As for national transfers, the organisation is fairly simple since regional depositors are directly connected to the central securities depositary which fulfils two overriding functions on their behalf:- ensuring the final custody of ...

  1. Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong [Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing (China)

    2007-03-15

    Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered.

  2. Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo, S.

    2012-04-01

    I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire

  3. A Facile Synthesis of Dynamic, Shape Changing Polymer Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Daniel; Wang, Cynthia; Connal, Luke A.; Audus, Debra J.; Jang, Se Gyu; Kraemer, Stephan; Killops, Kato L.; Fredrickson, Glenn H.; Kramer, Edward J.; Hawker, Craig J.

    2014-01-01

    We herein report a new facile strategy to ellipsoidal block copolymer nanoparticles exhibiting a pH-triggered anistropic swelling profile. In a first step, elongated particles with an axially stacked lamellae structure are selectively prepared by utilizing functional surfactants to control the phase separation of symmetric PS-b-P2VP in dispersed droplets. In a second step, the dynamic shape change is realized by crosslinking the P2VP domains, hereby connecting glassy PS discs with pH-sensitive hydrogel actuators. PMID:24700705

  4. A facile synthesis of dynamic, shape-changing polymer particles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klinger, Daniel; Wang, Cynthia X; Connal, Luke A; Audus, Debra J; Jang, Se Gyu; Kraemer, Stephan; Killops, Kato L; Fredrickson, Glenn H; Kramer, Edward J; Hawker, Craig J

    2014-07-01

    We herein report a new facile strategy to ellipsoidal block copolymer nanoparticles that exhibit a pH-triggered anistropic swelling profile. In a first step, elongated particles with an axially stacked lamellae structure are selectively prepared by utilizing functional surfactants to control the phase separation of symmetric polystyrene-b-poly(2-vinylpyridine) (PS-b-P2VP) in dispersed droplets. In a second step, the dynamic shape change is realized by cross-linking the P2VP domains, thereby connecting glassy PS discs with pH-sensitive hydrogel actuators. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability: Increasing Climate Literacy in Urban Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Three higher education institutions, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, are working together to share expertise and resources to expand climate change topics offered to undergraduate and graduate students in New York City (NYC). This collaboration combines existing UNL educational learning resources and infrastructure in virtual coursework. It will supply global climate change education and locally-based research experiences to the highly diverse undergraduate students of Brooklyn and Lehman Colleges and to middle and high school teachers in NYC. Through the university partnership, UNL materials are being adapted and augmented to include authentic research experiences for undergraduates and teachers using NASA satellite data, geographic information system (GIS) tools, and/or locally collected microclimate data from urban gardens. Learners download NASA data, apply an Earth system approach, and employ GIS in the analysis of food production landscapes in a dynamically changing climate system. The resulting course will be offered via Blackboard courseware, supported by Web 2.0 technologies designed specifically to support dialogue, data, and web publication sharing between partners, teachers and middle school, high school and undergraduate student researchers. NYC is in the center of the urban farming movement. By exploring water and food topics of direct relevance to students' lives and community, we anticipate that students will be motivated and more empowered to make connections between climate change and potential impacts on the health and happiness of people in their community, in the United States and around the world. Final course will be piloted in 2012.

  6. Assessing Political Dynamics in Contemporary Malaysia: Implications for Democratic Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surain Subramaniam

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines political dynamics in Malaysia and assesses the prospects for change in the direction of greater political liberalization. It focuses on the 12th General Election of 2008 and its implications for opportunities and challenges for liberal democratic change in Malaysia. It discusses the role of the internet-based new media in shaping an emerging public sphere, and some factors affecting the changing role of non-Malay voters in the political process. This article argues that democratization in Malaysia is already occurring, albeit at a gradual pace; it is being pushed by the new political forces of civil society actors, newly empowered opposition parties, and the internet-based media. The boundaries of this emerging democratic space is simultaneously being shaped and contested by the political competition between status-quo and reformist forces in this society. Some institutional changes have expanded the parameters of democratic space, although the entrenched dominant institutions of the ruling regime continue to wield sufficient amounts of institutional capacity to subvert any consolidation of these democratic changes for now.

  7. Climate change impact on landscape fire and forest biomass dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study was to improve current understandings of fire regimes. The estimation of biomass dynamics at the stand scale is essential for understanding landscape scale biomass dynamics, particularly in order to understand the potential effects of fire regimes. This study presented a synthesis of research results obtained from stand scale studies together with fire behaviour and weather variables. Landscape structure, topography and climate conditions were also considered. Integration of the data was conducted with the SEM-LAND model, a spatially explicit model for landscape dynamics. Equations for the model were presented, including fire initiation and spread, as well as a lightning fire process and simulated fire suppression. Results indicated that fire suppression could alter the distribution of fire sizes. The effect of tree and stand mortality on forest biomass estimates was also discussed along with the impact of climate change on fire regimes. Results indicate that fire activities are likely to increase. Results also demonstrate that fire frequency and size distribution are correlated without human intervention. Theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution is not always supported by empirical observations. Point-based fire frequency and fire cycle definitions are special cases from a computational perspective. Detection of quantitative interrelationships may simplify preconditions for estimating fire regimes, and serve as a means to address incomplete empirical observations. 12 refs., 3 figs

  8. Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang Yimin; Peterson, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate. (letter)

  9. Treeline dynamics with climate change at Central Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaire, N. P.; Koirala, M.; Bhuju, D. R.; Borgaonkar, H. P.

    2013-10-01

    Global climate change has multidimensional impacts with several biological fingerprints, and treeline shifting in tandem with climate change is a widely observed phenomenon in various parts of the world. In Nepal several impacts of climate change on physical environments have been observed. However, studies on the biological impacts are lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline ecotone (3750-4003 m a.s.l.) in the Kalchuman Lake (Kal Tal) area of the Manaslu Conservation Area in central Nepal Himalaya with the aim to study the dynamic impact of climate change at the treeline. The study provides an insight into regeneration and treeline dynamics over the past 200 yr. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, >250 m long) were laid covering forest line, treeline as well as tree species Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree-cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 yr old) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 yr). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. Thus, two species presented species-specific responses to climate change and much wider differences anticipated in their population status as climate continues to cha spectabilis correlated negatively with the mean monthly temperature of May-August of the current year and with September of the previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively related with May-August precipitation and January-April temperature of the current year. The reconstructed average summer temperature (May-August) using tree ring data revealed alternate period of cool and warm period with warming in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Further palynological and geochronological studies of sediments of the Kalchuman Lake would advance our understanding

  10. Complex agro-ecosystems for food security in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khumairoh, Uma; Groot, Jeroen CJ; Lantinga, Egbert A

    2012-01-01

    Attempts to increase food crop yields by intensifying agricultural systems using high inputs of nonrenewable resources and chemicals frequently lead to de-gradation of natural resources, whereas most technological innovations are not accessible for smallholders that represent the majority of farmers world wide. Alternatively, cocultures consisting of assemblages of plant and animal species can support ecological processes of nutrient cycling and pest control, which may lead to increasing yields and declining susceptibility to extreme weather conditions with increasing complexity of the systems. Here we show that enhancing the complexity of a rice production system by adding combinations of compost, azolla, ducks, and fish resulted in strongly increased grain yields and revenues in a season with extremely adverse weather conditions on East Java, Indonesia. We found that azolla, duck, and fish increased plant nutrient content, tillering and leaf area expansion, and strongly reduced the density of six different pests. In the most complex system comprising all components the highest grain yield was obtained. The net revenues of this system from sales of rice grain, fish, and ducks, after correction for extra costs, were 114% higher than rice cultivation with only compost as fertilizer. These results provide more insight in the agro-ecological processes and demonstrate how complex agricultural systems can contribute to food security in a changing climate. If smallholders can be trained to manage these systems and are supported for initial investments by credits, their livelihoods can be improved while producing in an ecologically benign way. PMID:22957173

  11. Untying the Energy Knot of Supply Security, Climate Change, Economic Competitiveness: The Role of Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulteel, Paul; Capros, Pantelis

    2007-07-01

    In energy terms, the following decades will be dominated by the challenge of developing a low-carbon, energy-secure and competitive economy. EURELECTRIC launched a study, horizon 2030-2050, to develop a qualified vision about the role of electricity in responding to these challenges. The resulting message is a positive one: with the right policies that include a long-term visibility of carbon pricing to allow integration of climate change impacts in investments and business strategies, it is possible to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions without unreasonable costs to the economy, and at the same time to reduce oil and gas dependency. A focus on demand side energy-efficiency is a prerequisite. The development of renewables, of clean fossil fuel technology with carbon capture and storage, and of nuclear energy can make a low-carbon and largely oil-independent power generation mix a reality. This allows for formidable synergies with energy-efficient electro-technologies at the demand side. Two sectors are especially meaningful in this respect: the heating and cooling and road transport sectors, where heat pumps and plug-in hybrid cars respectively can make energy-efficient, oil-independent and low-carbon homes and cars a reality. Although the analysis is based on European conditions, the authors believe that it has worldwide relevance. (auth)

  12. Dynamic cerebral autoregulation changes during sub-maximal handgrip maneuver.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo C Nogueira

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: We investigated the effect of handgrip (HG maneuver on time-varying estimates of dynamic cerebral autoregulation (CA using the autoregressive moving average technique. METHODS: Twelve healthy subjects were recruited to perform HG maneuver during 3 minutes with 30% of maximum contraction force. Cerebral blood flow velocity, end-tidal CO₂ pressure (PETCO₂, and noninvasive arterial blood pressure (ABP were continuously recorded during baseline, HG and recovery. Critical closing pressure (CrCP, resistance area-product (RAP, and time-varying autoregulation index (ARI were obtained. RESULTS: PETCO₂ did not show significant changes during HG maneuver. Whilst ABP increased continuously during the maneuver, to 27% above its baseline value, CBFV raised to a plateau approximately 15% above baseline. This was sustained by a parallel increase in RAP, suggestive of myogenic vasoconstriction, and a reduction in CrCP that could be associated with metabolic vasodilation. The time-varying ARI index dropped at the beginning and end of the maneuver (p<0.005, which could be related to corresponding alert reactions or to different time constants of the myogenic, metabolic and/or neurogenic mechanisms. CONCLUSION: Changes in dynamic CA during HG suggest a complex interplay of regulatory mechanisms during static exercise that should be considered when assessing the determinants of cerebral blood flow and metabolism.

  13. Dynamic Cerebral Autoregulation Changes during Sub-Maximal Handgrip Maneuver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Ricardo C.; Bor-Seng-Shu, Edson; Santos, Marcelo R.; Negrão, Carlos E.; Teixeira, Manoel J.; Panerai, Ronney B.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We investigated the effect of handgrip (HG) maneuver on time-varying estimates of dynamic cerebral autoregulation (CA) using the autoregressive moving average technique. Methods Twelve healthy subjects were recruited to perform HG maneuver during 3 minutes with 30% of maximum contraction force. Cerebral blood flow velocity, end-tidal CO2 pressure (PETCO2), and noninvasive arterial blood pressure (ABP) were continuously recorded during baseline, HG and recovery. Critical closing pressure (CrCP), resistance area-product (RAP), and time-varying autoregulation index (ARI) were obtained. Results PETCO2 did not show significant changes during HG maneuver. Whilst ABP increased continuously during the maneuver, to 27% above its baseline value, CBFV raised to a plateau approximately 15% above baseline. This was sustained by a parallel increase in RAP, suggestive of myogenic vasoconstriction, and a reduction in CrCP that could be associated with metabolic vasodilation. The time-varying ARI index dropped at the beginning and end of the maneuver (p<0.005), which could be related to corresponding alert reactions or to different time constants of the myogenic, metabolic and/or neurogenic mechanisms. Conclusion Changes in dynamic CA during HG suggest a complex interplay of regulatory mechanisms during static exercise that should be considered when assessing the determinants of cerebral blood flow and metabolism. PMID:23967113

  14. Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Gill, Philip G.

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

  15. Geophysical Tools, Challenges and Perspectives Related to Natural Hazards, Climate Change and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fucugauchi, J. U.

    2013-05-01

    In the coming decades a changing climate and natural hazards will likely increase the vulnerability of agricultural and other food production infrastructures, posing increasing treats to industrialized and developing economies. While food security concerns affect us globally, the huge differences among countries in stocks, population size, poverty levels, economy, technologic development, transportation, health care systems and basic infrastructure will pose a much larger burden on populations in the developing and less developed world. In these economies, increase in the magnitude, duration and frequency of droughts, floods, hurricanes, rising sea levels, heat waves, thunderstorms, freezing events and other phenomena will pose severe costs on the population. For this presentation, we concentrate on a geophysical perspective of the problems, tools available, challenges and short and long-term perspectives. In many instances, a range of natural hazards are considered as unforeseen catastrophes, which suddenly affect without warning, resulting in major losses. Although the forecasting capacity in the different situations arising from climate change and natural hazards is still limited, there are a range of tools available to assess scenarios and forecast models for developing and implementing better mitigation strategies and prevention programs. Earth observation systems, geophysical instrumental networks, satellite observatories, improved understanding of phenomena, expanded global and regional databases, geographic information systems, higher capacity for computer modeling, numerical simulations, etc provide a scientific-technical framework for developing strategies. Hazard prevention and mitigation programs will result in high costs globally, however major costs and challenges concentrate on the less developed economies already affected by poverty, famines, health problems, social inequalities, poor infrastructure, low life expectancy, high population growth

  16. Soil erosion, climate change and global food security: challenges and strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Christopher J

    2014-01-01

    An overview is presented of the determined degree of global land degradation (principally occurring through soil erosion), with some consideration of its possible impact on global food security. Most determinations of the extent of land degradation (e.g. GLASOD) have been made on the basis of "expert judgement" and perceptions, as opposed to direct measurements of this multifactorial phenomenon. More recently, remote sensing measurements have been made which indicate that while some regions of the Earth are "browning" others are "greening". The latter effect is thought to be due to fertilisation of the growth of biomass by increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, and indeed the total amount of global biomass was observed to increase by 3.8% during the years 1981-2003. Nonetheless, 24% of the Earth's surface had occasioned some degree of degradation in the same time period. It appears that while long-term trends in NDVI (normalised difference vegetation index) derivatives are only broad indicators of land degradation, taken as a proxy, the NDVI/NPP (net primary productivity) trend is able to yield a benchmark that is globally consistent and to illuminate regions in which biologically significant changes are occurring. Thus, attention may be directed to where investigation and action at the ground level is required, i.e. to potential "hot spots" of land degradation and/or erosion. The severity of land degradation through soil erosion, and an according catastrophic threat to the survival of humanity may in part have been overstated, although the rising human population will impose inexorable demands for what the soil can provide. However the present system of industrialised agriculture would not be possible without plentiful provisions of cheap crude oil and natural gas to supply fuels, pesticides, herbicides and fertilisers. It is only on the basis of these inputs that it has been possible for the human population to rise above 7 billion. Hence, if the cheap oil and gas

  17. Organizational change in the Ministry of Justice and Public Security after the terrorist attacks on 22 July 2011

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Susan Bahia

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines changes in the Ministry of Justice and Public Security (MJ) after the terrorist attacks in Norway 22 July 2011 until 2016. The focus is on the MJ’s internal and external formal organization, internal and external procedures, and demographic profile. A main finding is that the MJ has been subject to several small incremental changes, which collectively have resulted in a considerable development of the Ministry’s governance capacity in the field of societal s...

  18. Towards Dynamic Authentication in the Grid — Secure and Mobile Business Workflows Using GSet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangler, Jürgen; Schikuta, Erich; Witzany, Christoph; Jorns, Oliver; Ul Haq, Irfan; Wanek, Helmut

    Until now, the research community mainly focused on the technical aspects of Grid computing and neglected commercial issues. However, recently the community tends to accept that the success of the Grid is crucially based on commercial exploitation. In our vision Foster's and Kesselman's statement "The Grid is all about sharing." has to be extended by "... and making money out of it!". To allow for the realization of this vision the trust-worthyness of the underlying technology needs to be ensured. This can be achieved by the use of gSET (Gridified Secure Electronic Transaction) as a basic technology for trust management and secure accounting in the presented Grid based workflow. We present a framework, conceptually and technically, from the area of the Mobile-Grid, which justifies the Grid infrastructure as a viable platform to enable commercially successful business workflows.

  19. Hot spots, weak links: Strengthening nuclear security in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Tomihiro; Nilsson, Anita

    2004-01-01

    Protection against nuclear terrorism is one of the critical issues facing the international community today. New and challenging security dimensions must be met. During the Cold War, the main international security concern was the fear of a nuclear war and the spread of nuclear weapons. The post-Cold War era presented new security challenges, which recognized the need to strengthen the international regime of physical protection of nuclear materials. In the post-9/11 period, threat perceptions include the potential terrorist use of an improvised nuclear explosive device, the use of a radiological dispersal device (RDD) and attacks against nuclear facilities, i.e. sabotage. These threats point to the need for an overall strengthening of the global nuclear security regime with attention to 'weak links' that may offer soft targets for terrorists or criminals. This article discusses some of the basic concepts and developments in the field of nuclear security; the legacy of the Cold War and the rise of new challenges to the global nuclear security agenda in the post-Cold War and post-9/11 periods; and efforts of the IAEA to strengthen the global nuclear security regime. The IAEA is filling an important and expanding role, yet more measures are needed

  20. An Integrated Intranet and Dynamic Database Application for the Security Manager at Naval Postgraduate School

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-09-01

    Basic for Applications ( VBA ) 6.0 as macros may not be supported in 8 future versions of Access. Access 2000 offers Internet- related features for...security features from Microsoft’s SQL Server. [1] 3. System Requirements Access 2000 is a resource-intensive application as are all Office 2000...1] • Modules – Functions and procedures written in the Visual Basic for Applications ( VBA ) programming language. The capabilities of modules

  1. Political Dynamics and Security in the Arabian Peninsula Through the 1990s,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Moreover, not only were historical and ideological differences between Syria and Iraq present, but Dam- ascus had supported Iran throughout the Iran...Iraq wanted to rebuild its war-dam- aged facilities as well as expand its industrial capacity., The need to show something for the war, coupled with a...outlooks, Gulf shaykhdoms articulated na- tional security policies through age -old political survival techniques. By 1992, however, and in large

  2. What to change and what to keep? Values and dynamics of adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Wessels

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a complex systems theory framework to clarify what adaptation to climate change means in practice, which is to make targeted changes to a society's functioning in order to avoid changes happening to that which is of value to the members of that society. It is shown that the question what is to be changed and what to be preserved is not prescribed by the facts of climate change and technology, but a contingent one to be made by society. Discussing four important domains of adaptation and the respective narratives found in academia and politics, it is investigated how these decisions are formed, giving special consideration to the case of Germany. This leads to the finding that the generally defensive framings that characterizes common notions of adaptation reinforce predominant cultural paradigms and social dynamics that arguably have contributed considerably to the need for adaptation to climate change in the first place and will most likely create further need for adaptation in the future. A paradoxical tendency to accelerate predominant social dynamics in attempts to keep current states of affairs unchanged is identified. It is concluded that the concept of adaptation is a regression behind the concept of sustainability which can easily accommodate adaptation needs but avoids the identified pitfalls of adaptation by its future orientation and oft-criticized openness.

  3. Understanding complexities in coupled dynamics of human-water and food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usmani, M.; Kondal, A.; Lin, L.; Colwell, R. R.; Jutla, A.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional premise of food security is associated with satisfying human hunger by providing sufficient calories to population. Water is the key variable associated with the growth of crops, which is then used as a metric of success for abundance of food across globe. The current framework often negates complex coupled interaction between availability of food nutrients and human well-being (such as productivity, work efficiency, low birth weight, physical and mental growth). Our analysis suggests that 1 in 3 humans suffer from malnutrition across the globe. In last five decades, most of the countries have a decreasing availability trend in at least one of the twenty-three essential food nutrients required for human well-being. We argue that food security can only be achieved if information on use of water for crops and consumption of food must include availability of nutrients for humans. Here, we propose a new concept of "consumptive nutrients" that include constant feedback mechanism between water-human and societal processes- essential for growth, distribution and consumption of food nutrients. Using Ethiopia as a signature rain-fed agricultural region, we will show how decreasing precipitation has led to an increase in crop productivity, but decreased availability of nutrients for humans. This in turn has destabilizing impact on overall regional economy. We will demonstrate why inclusion of nutrients must be a part of discussion for ensuring food security to human population.

  4. Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

    2002-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size

  5. "Sub-axis" : the Changing Japanese Role in the U.S. Asia-Pacific Security Layout

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xin; Qiang

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, in order to effectively respond to the rapid rise of China, the Obama Administration has energetically implemented the "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" strategy, and actively encouraged Japan to play a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific geo-security affairs. Under promotion of the Obama Administration and the active operation by several Japanese administrations, over the years the Asia-Pacific security pattern with the United States as the "single axis" shows a more obvious change, i.e. gradually evolving to a pattern with "the United States playing core role and Japan secondary role". Firstly, through continuously strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance, and using the opportunity to promote development of its military strength, Japan constantly strengthens its "Strategic Autonomy" in the alliance. Secondly, through strengthening bilateral or trilateral security interactions with the United States and other Asia-Pacific allies, making "the U.S. and Japan +1" an important mechanism and platform for the United States and its Asia- Pacific allies to carry out security cooperation. Finally, Japan also takes the initiative to launch strategic security cooperation in various forms with the U.S. "strategic partners", such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam and others in the Asia-Pacific region. These measures not only upgrade Japan’s function and status in the alliance, but also steadily elevate the level of strategic cooperation with a series of important countries in Asia-Pacific and has further played an increasingly important connecting, supplementing and coordinating role in the Asia Pacific traditional "hub-spoke security structure", so its influence in regional security system also grows increasingly, thus, suddenly having become the "sub-axis", next to the United States, in the Asia-Pacific geosecurity pattern.

  6. 17 CFR 249.104 - Form 4, statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... can use the information in investigations or litigation involving the federal securities laws or other... citations affecting Form 4, see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section...

  7. New fire and security rules change USA nuclear power plant emergency plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrou, A.L.

    1978-01-01

    New safety and security rules for nuclear power plants have resulted from the Energy Reorganisation Act and also from a review following the Browns Ferry fire. The content of the emergency plan which covers personnel, plant, site, as well as a general emergency, is outlined. New fire protection rules, the plan for security, local and state government assistance are also discussed, with a brief reference to the impact of the new rules on continuity of operations. (author)

  8. Improving barley culm robustness for secured crop yield in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dockter, Christoph; Hansson, Mats

    2015-06-01

    The Green Revolution combined advancements in breeding and agricultural practice, and provided food security to millions of people. Daily food supply is still a major issue in many parts of the world and is further challenged by future climate change. Fortunately, life science research is currently making huge progress, and the development of future crop plants will be explored. Today, plant breeding typically follows one gene per trait. However, new scientific achievements have revealed that many of these traits depend on different genes and complex interactions of proteins reacting to various external stimuli. These findings open up new possibilities for breeding where variations in several genes can be combined to enhance productivity and quality. In this review we present an overview of genes determining plant architecture in barley, with a special focus on culm length. Many genes are currently known only through their mutant phenotypes, but emerging genomic sequence information will accelerate their identification. More than 1000 different short-culm barley mutants have been isolated and classified in different phenotypic groups according to culm length and additional pleiotropic characters. Some mutants have been connected to deficiencies in biosynthesis and reception of brassinosteroids and gibberellic acids. Still other mutants are unlikely to be connected to these hormones. The genes and corresponding mutations are of potential interest for development of stiff-straw crop plants tolerant to lodging, which occurs in extreme weather conditions with strong winds and heavy precipitation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Impacts of Base-Case and Post-Contingency Constraint Relaxations on Static and Dynamic Operational Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salloum, Ahmed

    Constraint relaxation by definition means that certain security, operational, or financial constraints are allowed to be violated in the energy market model for a predetermined penalty price. System operators utilize this mechanism in an effort to impose a price-cap on shadow prices throughout the market. In addition, constraint relaxations can serve as corrective approximations that help in reducing the occurrence of infeasible or extreme solutions in the day-ahead markets. This work aims to capture the impact constraint relaxations have on system operational security. Moreover, this analysis also provides a better understanding of the correlation between DC market models and AC real-time systems and analyzes how relaxations in market models propagate to real-time systems. This information can be used not only to assess the criticality of constraint relaxations, but also as a basis for determining penalty prices more accurately. Constraint relaxations practice was replicated in this work using a test case and a real-life large-scale system, while capturing both energy market aspects and AC real-time system performance. System performance investigation included static and dynamic security analysis for base-case and post-contingency operating conditions. PJM peak hour loads were dynamically modeled in order to capture delayed voltage recovery and sustained depressed voltage profiles as a result of reactive power deficiency caused by constraint relaxations. Moreover, impacts of constraint relaxations on operational system security were investigated when risk based penalty prices are used. Transmission lines in the PJM system were categorized according to their risk index and each category was as-signed a different penalty price accordingly in order to avoid real-time overloads on high risk lines. This work also extends the investigation of constraint relaxations to post-contingency relaxations, where emergency limits are allowed to be relaxed in energy market models

  10. The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maljkovic-berry, Irina [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Athreya, Gayathri [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Daniels, Marcus [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruno, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kuiken, Carla [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ribeiro, Ruy M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

  11. [Dynamic changes of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem service value].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Yun; Lü, Xian-Guo; Shen, Song-Ping

    2009-05-01

    Based on the satellite remote sensing data acquired in 1975 and 2006, and by using the assessment method of ecosystem service value, the dynamic changes of physical production value, gas regulation value, and water storage value of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem in 1975-2006 were studied. During study period, the total value of the three services decreased from 19.59 billion RMB Yuan to 12.38 billion Yuan RMB, among which, physical production value increased by 0.302 billion RMB Yuan, while the gas regulation and water storage value decreased by 7.507 billion RMB Yuan. The benefit from the increase of physical production was much less than the loss of ecosystem degradation. Overgrazing induced the biomass reduction and soil deterioration, resulting in the decline of Ruoergai Plateau wetland ecosystem service value and service capacity.

  12. [Changes in workers' rehabilitation procedures under the Brazilian social security system: modernization or undermining of social protection?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Mara Alice Batista Conti; Iguti, Aparecida Mari

    2008-11-01

    This article describes the changes in workers' rehabilitation practices under the Brazilian National Social Security Institute (INSS) in the 1990s, in the context of neoliberal economic adjustment measures, based on an analysis of INSS documents from 1992 to 1997. The INSS plan for "modernization" of workers' rehabilitation led to: (1) dismantling of multidisciplinary teams; (2) induction of workers to accept proportional retirement pensions and voluntary layoffs; (3) under-utilization of the remaining INSS professional staff; (4) elimination of treatment programs for workers' rehabilitation; and (5) dismantling of INSS rehabilitation centers and clinics. The changes in the Brazilian social security system undermined the county's social security project and hegemony and reduced social security reform to a mere management and fiscal issue. Current "rehabilitation" falls far short of the institution's original purpose of social protection for workers, while aiming at economic regulation of the system to contain costs of workers' benefits. Workers that suffer work-related accidents are denied occupational rehabilitation, which aggravates their social disadvantage when they return to work.

  13. Using dynamical downscaling to close the gap between global change scenarios and local permafrost dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stendel, Martin; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Christensen, Jens H.

    2007-01-01

    Even though we can estimate the zonation of present-day permafrost from deep-soil temperatures obtained from global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) by accounting for heat conduction in the frozen soil, it is impossible to explicitly resolve soil properties, vegetation......, in particular in mountainous regions. By using global climate change scenarios as driving fields, one can obtain permafrost dynamics in high temporal resolution on the order of years. For the 21st century under the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, we find an increase of mean annual ground temperature by up to 6 K...

  14. Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

    2010-09-01

    This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

  15. The Changing Dynamics of Military Advantage in the Information Age

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mulcahey, Sean

    2004-01-01

    .... national security, particularly from a new form of global insurgency. The continued development and proliferation of information technology impacts the very nature of conflict and military competitive advantage. Can the U.S...

  16. Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Ali

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is set to be particularly disruptive in poor agricultural communities. We assess the factors influencing farmers’ choice of climate change adaptation practices and associated impacts on household food security and poverty in Pakistan using comprehensive data from 950 farmers from its major provinces. A probit model was used to investigate the factors influencing the use of climate-change adaptation practices; the censored least absolute deviation (CLAD was used to analyze the determinants of the number of adaptation practices used; and a propensity score matching (PSM approach was employed to evaluate the impact of adaptation practices on food security and poverty levels. Adjustment in sowing time (22% households, use of drought tolerant varieties (15% and shifting to new crops (25% were the three major adaptation practices used by farmers in the study area. Results show that younger farmers and farmers with higher levels of education are more likely to use these adaptation practices, as do farmers that are wealthier, farm more land and have joint families. The number of adaptation practices used was found to be positively associated with education, male household heads, land size, household size, extension services, access to credit and wealth. Farmers adopting more adaptation practices had higher food security levels (8–13% than those who did not, and experienced lower levels of poverty (3–6%. Climate change adaptation practices at farm level can thereby have significant development outcomes in addition to reducing exposure to weather risks.

  17. Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyao Xu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, and the resulting land use/cover change, is a primary cause of the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems. Reclamation projects are seen as a way to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and maintenance of coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the ecological changes to Jiangsu’s coastal wetland resulting from land use change since 1977 by using remote sensing and spatial analyses. The results indicate that: (1 The area of artificial land use expanded while natural land use was reduced, which emphasized an increase in production-orientated land uses at the expense of ecologically important wetlands; (2 It took 34 years for landscape ecological security and 39 years for ecosystem services to regain equilibrium. The coastal reclamation area would recover ecological equilibrium only after a minimum of 30 years; (3 The total ecosystem service value decreased significantly from $2.98 billion per year to $2.31 billion per year from 1977 to 2014. Food production was the only one ecosystem service function that consistently increased, mainly because of government policy; (4 The relationship between landscape ecological security and ecosystem services is complicated, mainly because of the scale effect of landscape ecology. Spatial analysis of changing gravity centers showed that landscape ecological security and ecosystem service quality became better in the north than the south over the study period.

  18. The Dynamics of Good Governance in Promoting Energy Security: The Case of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakib B. Amin

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the modern era, energy and its sustainability have emerged as one of the most important economic issues worldwide. It is widely believed that no country has managed to embrace development without ensuring a sustainable energy supply that could be accessed by a large portion of the population. Thus, this concept of energy sufficiency is of greater importance for the underdeveloped countries those, historically, had not been able to match their local energy demand. Apart from the inefficiencies and resource constraints associated with the energy sector, lack of good governance within an economy is believed to be a critical issue in aggravating energy crisis in those countries. However, following strategic impotence, political unwillingness and inefficient governance of the energy sector, the underdeveloped countries have failed to mitigate the energy deficits which in turn have hampered the development prospects in those countries. This paper highlights the potential roles good governance can play to promote energy security considering the case of Bangladesh, a developing country that is leaving no stones unturned in becoming a middle-income country by 2021. Besides, the role of good governance in complementing fuel diversification as a tool for ensuring energy security has also been put forward. Thus, the government of Bangladesh should reinstate good governance within the economy creating a favourable environment for investment in the energy sector which would enhance competition and mitigate inefficiencies in energy generation, transmission, and distribution.

  19. Foundational aspects of security

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chatzikokolakis, Konstantinos; Mödersheim, Sebastian Alexander; Palamidessi, Catuscia

    2014-01-01

    This Special Issue of the Journal of Computer Security focuses on foundational aspects of security, which in recent years have helped change much of the way we think about and approach system security.......This Special Issue of the Journal of Computer Security focuses on foundational aspects of security, which in recent years have helped change much of the way we think about and approach system security....

  20. Secure Hashing of Dynamic Hand Signatures Using Wavelet-Fourier Compression with BioPhasor Mixing and Discretization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai Kuan Yip

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a novel method for secure computation of biometric hash on dynamic hand signatures using BioPhasor mixing and discretization. The use of BioPhasor as the mixing process provides a one-way transformation that precludes exact recovery of the biometric vector from compromised hashes and stolen tokens. In addition, our user-specific discretization acts both as an error correction step as well as a real-to-binary space converter. We also propose a new method of extracting compressed representation of dynamic hand signatures using discrete wavelet transform (DWT and discrete fourier transform (DFT. Without the conventional use of dynamic time warping, the proposed method avoids storage of user's hand signature template. This is an important consideration for protecting the privacy of the biometric owner. Our results show that the proposed method could produce stable and distinguishable bit strings with equal error rates (EERs of and for random and skilled forgeries for stolen token (worst case scenario, and for both forgeries in the genuine token (optimal scenario.

  1. Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackenzie, Brian R; Meier, H E Markus; Lindegren, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics...... and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated...... to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass...

  2. Dynamical evolution of star clusters with a changing gravitational constant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angeletti, L.; Giannone, P.

    1978-01-01

    The dynamical evolution of massive star clusters was studied, taking into account variations with time of the gravitional constant. The rates of change of G were adopted according to theoretical and observational indications. Various conditions concerning the number of star groups, star masses, mass loss from stars, and initial star concentration were tested for the clusters. The comparison with analogous evolutionary sequences computed with a constant value of G showed that the effects of changes of G may be conspicuous. The analytical dependence of basic structural functions on the law of variation of G with time was determined from the numerical results. They allow an estimate of the consequences of G in a large range of cases. The effects of a decrease of G tended to prevent the formation of dense cores, which is a specific feature of the evolution of 'standard' models of star clusters. The expansion of the whole cluster structure was noteworthy. However, there was not a significant increase of escape of stars from cluster compared with the cases computed with constant G. Although detailed comparison with observations was beyond our present aims, it appears that a varaition of G according to the Brans-Dicke theory is not in conflict with observational data, as is the case for an exponential decrease of G consistent with Van Flandern's result. (orig.) [de

  3. Imidacloprid application changes microbial dynamics and enzymes in rice soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahapatra, Bibhab; Adak, Totan; Patil, Naveen K B; Pandi G, Guru P; Gowda, G Basana; Jambhulkar, N N; Yadav, Manoj Kumar; Panneerselvam, P; Kumar, Upendra; Munda, Sushmita; Jena, Mayabini

    2017-10-01

    Extensive use of imidacloprid in rice ecosystem may alter dynamics of microorganisms and can change soil biochemical properties. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of imidacloprid on growth and activities of microbes in tropical rice soil ecosystem. Four treatments, namely, recommended dose (at 25g a.i. ha -1 , RD), double the recommended dose (at 50g a.i. ha -1 , 2RD), five times the recommended dose (at 125g a.i. ha -1 , 5RD) & ten times the recommended dose (at 250g a.i. ha -1 , 10RD) along with control were imposed under controlled condition. Dissipation half lives of imidacloprid in soil were 19.25, 20.38, 21.65 and 33.00 days for RD, 2RD, 5RD and 10RD, respectively. In general bacteria, actinomycetes, fungi and phosphate solubilising bacteria population were disturbed due to imidacloprid application. Changes in diversity indices within bacterial community confirmed that imidacloprid application significantly affected distribution of bacteria. Total soil microbial biomass carbon content was reduced on imidacloprid application. Except dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase activities, all other soil enzymes namely, β-glycosidase, fluorescien diacetate hydrolase, acid phosphatase and urease responded negatively to imidacloprid application. The extent of negative effect of imidacloprid depends on dose and exposure time. This study concludes imidacloprid application had transient negative effects on soil microbes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Dynamic changes in brain activity during prism adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luauté, Jacques; Schwartz, Sophie; Rossetti, Yves; Spiridon, Mona; Rode, Gilles; Boisson, Dominique; Vuilleumier, Patrik

    2009-01-07

    Prism adaptation does not only induce short-term sensorimotor plasticity, but also longer-term reorganization in the neural representation of space. We used event-related fMRI to study dynamic changes in brain activity during both early and prolonged exposure to visual prisms. Participants performed a pointing task before, during, and after prism exposure. Measures of trial-by-trial pointing errors and corrections allowed parametric analyses of brain activity as a function of performance. We show that during the earliest phase of prism exposure, anterior intraparietal sulcus was primarily implicated in error detection, whereas parieto-occipital sulcus was implicated in error correction. Cerebellum activity showed progressive increases during prism exposure, in accordance with a key role for spatial realignment. This time course further suggests that the cerebellum might promote neural changes in superior temporal cortex, which was selectively activated during the later phase of prism exposure and could mediate the effects of prism adaptation on cognitive spatial representations.

  5. Surviving in Changing Seascapes: Sediment Dynamics as Bottleneck for Long-Term Seagrass Presence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suykerbuyk, W.; Bouma, T.J.; Govers, L.L.; Giesen, K.; de Jong, D.J.; Herman, P.M.J.; Hendriks, J.; van Katwijk, M.M.

    2016-01-01

    Changes in the seascape often result in altered hydrodynamics that lead to coinciding changes in sediment dynamics. Little is known on how altered sediment dynamics affect long-term seagrass persistence. We studied the thresholds of sediment dynamics in relation to seagrass presence by comparing

  6. Changes in Arable Land Demand for Food in India and China: A Potential Threat to Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reshmita Nath

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available India and China are two similar developing countries with huge populations, rapid economic growth and limited natural resources, therefore facing the massive pressure of ensuring food security. In this paper, we will discuss the food security situations in these two countries by studying the historical changes of food supply-demand balance with the concept of agricultural land requirements for food (LRF from 1963–2009. LRF of a country is a function of population, per capita consumption/diet, cropping yield and cropping intensity. We have attempted to discuss and compare our results in a framework which links consumption of different groups of food items to diet patterns; then, to the total land requirement for food in a scenario when population is growing rapidly and diet diversification and urbanization due to economic reform impose excessive pressure on food security of both countries. We also elaborate on the role of technology dissemination and critically analyze the achievements and drawbacks of government policies to ensure food self-sufficiency and food security of nations. Our results show that the total LRF increases approximately by 42% and 40%, whereas per capita LRF decreases significantly by about 48% and 30% from 1963–2009, for India and China, respectively. Furthermore, our studies reveal that population growth dominates most of the increase in total LRF for India; whereas diet pattern change induced by income growth drives the major increase in LRF for China. Therefore, sustainable management of agricultural land resource is an urgent need both for India and China as there will be demand for more food to meet the diet requirement for the entire population. We also demonstrate the role of India and China in future global food security programs and the challenges to implement the new land reform policies domestically.

  7. Understanding dynamic changes in live cell adhesion with neutron reflectometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghans, Ann

    Understanding the structure and functionality of biological systems on a nanometer-resolution and short temporal scales is important for solving complex biological problems, developing innovative treatment, and advancing the design of highly functionalized biomimetic materials. For example, adhesion of cells to an underlying substrate plays a crucial role in physiology and disease development, and has been investigated with great interest for several decades. In the talk, we would like to highlight recent advances in utilizing neutron scattering to study bio-related structures in dynamic conditions (e . g . under the shear flow) including in-situ investigations of the interfacial properties of living cells. The strength of neutron reflectometry is its non-pertubative nature, the ability to probe buried interfaces with nanometer resolution and its sensitivity to light elements like hydrogen and carbon. That allows us to study details of cell - substrate interfaces that are not accessible with any other standard techniques. We studied the adhesion of human brain tumor cells (U251) to quartz substrates and their responses to the external mechanical forces. Such cells are isolated within the central nervous system which makes them difficult to reach with conventional therapies and therefore making them highly invasive. Our results reveal changes in the thickness and composition of the adhesion layer (a layer between the cell lipid membrane and the quartz substrate), largely composed of hyaluronic acid and associated proteoglycans, when the cells were subjected to shear stress. Further studies will allow us to determine more conditions triggering changes in the composition of the bio-material in the adhesion layer. This, in turn, can help to identify changes that correlate with tumor invasiveness, which can have significant medical impact for the development of targeted anti-invasive therapies.

  8. Changes in dynamic resting state network connectivity following aphasia therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, E Susan; Small, Steven L

    2017-10-24

    Resting state magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) permits observation of intrinsic neural networks produced by task-independent correlations in low frequency brain activity. Various resting state networks have been described, with each thought to reflect common engagement in some shared function. There has been limited investigation of the plasticity in these network relationships after stroke or induced by therapy. Twelve individuals with language disorders after stroke (aphasia) were imaged at multiple time points before (baseline) and after an imitation-based aphasia therapy. Language assessment using a narrative production task was performed at the same time points. Group independent component analysis (ICA) was performed on the rsfMRI data to identify resting state networks. A sliding window approach was then applied to assess the dynamic nature of the correlations among these networks. Network correlations during each 30-second window were used to cluster the data into ten states for each window at each time point for each subject. Correlation was performed between changes in time spent in each state and therapeutic gains on the narrative task. The amount of time spent in a single one of the (ten overall) dynamic states was positively associated with behavioral improvement on the narrative task at the 6-week post-therapy maintenance interval, when compared with either baseline or assessment immediately following therapy. This particular state was characterized by minimal correlation among the task-independent resting state networks. Increased functional independence and segregation of resting state networks underlies improvement on a narrative production task following imitation-based aphasia treatment. This has important clinical implications for the targeting of noninvasive brain stimulation in post-stroke remediation.

  9. Security Analysis of a Block Encryption Algorithm Based on Dynamic Sequences of Multiple Chaotic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Mao-Kang; He, Bo; Wang, Yong

    2011-01-01

    Recently, the cryptosystem based on chaos has attracted much attention. Wang and Yu (Commun. Nonlin. Sci. Numer. Simulat. 14 (2009) 574) proposed a block encryption algorithm based on dynamic sequences of multiple chaotic systems. We analyze the potential flaws in the algorithm. Then, a chosen-plaintext attack is presented. Some remedial measures are suggested to avoid the flaws effectively. Furthermore, an improved encryption algorithm is proposed to resist the attacks and to keep all the merits of the original cryptosystem.

  10. Changes in Personality Disorder Traits Following 2 Years of Treatment in a Secure Therapeutic Community Milieu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrissey, Catrin; Taylor, Jon

    2014-01-01

    Therapeutic community treatment models have not previously been applied to forensic patients with mild intellectual disabilities (IDs) with a comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder. Thirteen patients with mild IDs were allocated to a unit within a high secure psychiatric service operating a model of treatment based on the principles and…

  11. Changing Roles of the United States and Japan in the Security of Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-03-01

    Mahatir Mohamad invoked the Internal Security Act (ISA) in 1981, which enabled him to detain his opponents without trial. He applied the ISA liberally and...since World War II, the reaction of Southeast Asian leaders was positive. Prime Minister Mahatir of Malaysia had "no problems whatsoever" with the

  12. Changing Napoleonic Leadership In The Department Of Homeland Security: The Identification Of Toxic Leadership Behaviors And How To Facilitate Change To Those Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-06

    when the subject of emotional intelligence is brought up, some leaders take a “ machismo ” attitude towards it, in an attempt to discount, ignore, or...Eisenhower School for national Security and Resource StrategyNational Defense University, 2013, 101. 5 Ibid, 101. 6 “ Machismo | an Attitude, Quality, or...webster.com/dictionary/ machismo . 7 McFarland, Walter, and Susan Goldsworthy. Choosing Change: How Leaders and Organizations Drive Results One Person at a

  13. Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blitvich, Bradley J

    2008-06-01

    West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

  14. Climate Change Impact on the Southeastern Europe Security Environment and the Increasing Role of the Bulgarian Army as the World Warms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT AND THE INCREASING ROLE OF THE BULGARIAN ARMY AS THE WORLD WARMS...DD-MM-YYYY) 10-06-2016 2. REPORT TYPE Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) AUG 2015 – JUN 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change ...14. ABSTRACT Climate change impacts on the security environment are real and have the potential to create unprecedented levels of risk through

  15. A Catalyst for Change: Drought and Food Security in the Near East Region (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, C. L.

    2010-12-01

    In the Near East, drought at the turn of the 21st century was reported to be the worst in 50 years, affecting millions of people across the region. The drought caused a wide range of effects, including widespread crop failures and livestock losses, increased drinking water shortages and disease stress, additional debt, and forced mass migrations to urban areas and other countries, all of which affected food security. As devastating as the drought was for people and the environment, the event created a “policy window” - a time during which the public’s and policy makers’ attention was directed toward a particular issue, creating an advantageous political environment for addressing the problem. In this case, the drought revealed the need for enhanced mitigation and drought relief coordination. It has served as the impetus for several countries and international organizations to work together to foster new policies and training activities to reduce drought risk and enhance food security in the region.

  16. Security management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, H.W.

    1990-01-01

    Technical progress is moving more and more quickly and the systems thus produced are so complex and have become so unclear to the individual that he can no longer estimate the consequences: Faith in progress has given way to deep mistrust. Companies have adjusted to this change in consciousness. An interesting tendency can be identified: technical security is already available - now the organization of security has become an important objective for companies. The key message of the book is: If outworn technical systems are no longer adequate, the organization must be thoroughly overhauled. Five chapters deal with the following themes: organization as an aspect of society; risk control; aspects of security; is there security in ADP; the broader concept of security. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    consider political, military, and ethical implications of attempting to manage the world’s climate.” Advocates of such projects seldom consider the...national security threats.183 Second, the DoD must accomplish a holistic, futuristic, threat-based, causation-oriented, proactive, and ethical examination...human-made capital. Importantly, the eq- uitable, effective, and sustainable application of the Kantian principles represent the best hope for countering

  18. Quinoa biodiversity and sustainability for food security under climate change. A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruiz, Karina B.; Biondi, Stefania; Oses, Rómulo

    2014-01-01

    . Although the crop is still mainly produced in Bolivia and Peru, agronomic trials and cultivation are spreading to many other countries. Quinoa maintains productivity on rather poor soils and under conditions of water shortage and high salinity. Moreover, quinoa seeds are an exceptionally nutritious food...... propose a schematic model integrating the fundamental factors that should determine the future utilization of quinoa, in terms of food security, biodiversity conservation, and cultural identity....

  19. Changing Mindsets to Transform Security: Leader Development for an Unpredictable and Complex World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    referred to a rubber device to secure or tie things together that just happened to be wide. There were no magnetic resonance imaging ( MRI ) machines...and asyn- chronous courses. For example, tablet computers, while not new, have become an educational phenomenon with the iPad, Kindle Fire, Nook...and content of their choosing making the tablet itself a portable personalized learning environment.”18 These de- vices have been enabled through an

  20. New security and privacy laws require basic changes in professional practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sykes, David M.

    2005-09-01

    Everybody knows about HIPAA-but what about GLBA? FIPA? The Patriot Act? Homeland Security? NCLB? FCRA? CASB1? PIPEDA? All of these are recent laws that impact acoustical design. Throw in the American Hospital Association/ASHE and AIA's about-to-be-released ``Guidelines for the Design of Healthcare Facilities'' as well as the redrafting of DCID 6/9 and it looks like time for careful examination of some professional practices relating to security and privacy. Should INCE members join with and endorse the ASA's recently formed Joint TCAA/TCN Subcommittee which aims to fill a policy vacuum in Washington and Ottawa relating to the fundamental protection of citizens' rights to privacy? This group will formulate consistent guidelines to enable federal and state agencies in the US and Canada to enforce and monitor their laws-will their guidelines affect INCE members? Those who advise or give expert testimony to government agencies, defense/security organizations, courts, and large institutions in financial services, healthcare or education likely find themselves in a rapidly shifting landscape and recognize the need to respond with new research and professional practices.

  1. INFORMATION SYSTEM SECURITY (CYBER SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Siddique Ansari

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - Business Organizations and Government unequivocally relies on upon data to deal with their business operations. The most unfavorable impact on association is disappointment of friendship, goodness, trustworthiness, legitimacy and probability of data and administrations. There is an approach to ensure data and to deal with the IT framework's Security inside association. Each time the new innovation is made, it presents some new difficulties for the insurance of information and data. To secure the information and data in association is imperative on the grounds that association nowadays inside and remotely joined with systems of IT frameworks. IT structures are inclined to dissatisfaction and security infringement because of slips and vulnerabilities. These slips and vulnerabilities can be brought on by different variables, for example, quickly creating headway, human slip, poor key particulars, poor movement schedules or censuring the threat. Likewise, framework changes, new deserts and new strikes are a huge piece of the time displayed, which helpers augmented vulnerabilities, disappointments and security infringement all through the IT structure life cycle. The business went to the confirmation that it is essentially difficult to ensure a slip free, risk free and secure IT structure in perspective of the disfigurement of the disavowing security parts, human pass or oversight, and part or supplies frustration. Totally secure IT frameworks don't exist; just those in which the holders may have changing degrees of certainty that security needs of a framework are fulfilled do. The key viewpoints identified with security of data outlining are examined in this paper. From the start, the paper recommends pertinent legitimate structure and their duties including open association obligation, and afterward it returns to present and future time, system limits, structure security in business division. At long last, two key inadequacy markers

  2. Motivational Dynamics in Language Learning: Change, Stability, and Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waninge, Freerkien; Dörnyei, Zoltán; De Bot, Kees

    2014-01-01

    Motivation as a variable in L2 development is no longer seen as the stable individual difference factor it was once believed to be: Influenced by process-oriented models and principles, and especially by the growing understanding of how complex dynamic systems work, researchers have been focusing increasingly on the dynamic and changeable nature…

  3. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; Defries, Ruth S.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Anderson, Liana O.; Arai, Egidio; Del Bon Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Freitas, Ramon; Morisette, Jeff

    2006-09-01

    Intensive mechanized agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon grew by >3.6 million hectares (ha) during 2001-2004. Whether this cropland expansion resulted from intensified use of land previously cleared for cattle ranching or new deforestation has not been quantified and has major implications for future deforestation dynamics, carbon fluxes, forest fragmentation, and other ecosystem services. We combine deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25-ha) clearings as cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since 2001. Statewide, direct conversion of forest to cropland totaled >540,000 ha during 2001-2004, peaking at 23% of 2003 annual deforestation. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of clearings for pasture (mean sizes, 333 and 143 ha, respectively), and conversion occurred rapidly; >90% of clearings for cropland were planted in the first year after deforestation. Area deforested for cropland and mean annual soybean price in the year of forest clearing were directly correlated (R2 = 0.72), suggesting that deforestation rates could return to higher levels seen in 2003-2004 with a rebound of crop prices in international markets. Pasture remains the dominant land use after forest clearing in Mato Grosso, but the growing importance of larger and faster conversion of forest to cropland defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation. agriculture | carbon | land use change | soybean

  4. Climatic Change and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Storm-tracks: Changes in Transient Eddies Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    An evidence of our understanding of the general circulation is whether we can predict changes in the general circulation that might be associated with past or future climate changes. Changes in the location, intensity or seasonality of major climatological features of the general circulation could be more important than average temperature changes, particularly where these changes could affect local hydrology, energy balances, etc. Under these major climatological features we assume the poleward expansion of the tropical circulation (Hadley circulation), static stability (changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere), role of SST forcing, sea ice extension, extratropical eddies behavior. We have a question: would the climate change significantly affect the location and intensity of midlatitude storm-tracks and associated jets? Mean-flow interaction in midlatitudes produces low-frequency variations in the latitude of the jets. It is reasonable to think that a modest climate change might significantly affects the jets location and their associated storm tracks. The storm-tracks are defined as the region of strong baroclinicity (maximum meridional temperature gradient), which are determined on the basis of eddy statistics like eddy fluxes of angular momentum, energy, and water (with the use of high-bandpass filter). In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two major storms: in the region of Atlantic and Pacific. The storm-tracks play important role in the dynamics of weather and climate. They affect the global energy cycle and the hydrological cycle, and as a result they bring heavy rains and other hazardous weather phenomena in the middle latitudes. The recent increase in global tropopause heights is closely associated with systematic temperature changes below and above the tropopause. Temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere. The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind structure in the region of

  5. Secure PVM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunigan, T.H.; Venugopal, N.

    1996-09-01

    This research investigates techniques for providing privacy, authentication, and data integrity to PVM (Parallel Virtual Machine). PVM is extended to provide secure message passing with no changes to the user`s PVM application, or, optionally, security can be provided on a message-by message basis. Diffe-Hellman is used for key distribution of a single session key for n-party communication. Keyed MD5 is used for message authentication, and the user may select from various secret-key encryption algorithms for message privacy. The modifications to PVM are described, and the performance of secure PVM is evaluated.

  6. Implosion lessons from national security, high reliability spacecraft, electronics, and the forces which changed them

    CERN Document Server

    Temple, L Parker

    2012-01-01

    Implosion is a focused study of the history and uses of high-reliability, solid-state electronics, military standards, and space systems that support our national security and defense. This book is unique in combining the interdependent evolution of and interrelationships among military standards, solid-state electronics, and very high-reliability space systems. Starting with a brief description of the physics that enabled the development of the first transistor, Implosion covers the need for standardizing military electronics, which began during World War II and continu

  7. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Land-Use Changes, and Regional Carbon Dynamics in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, J. E.; Sleeter, B. M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    The fact that climate change is likely to accelerate throughout this century means that climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will need to adapt increasingly to climate change. This fact also means that understanding the potential for agricultural adaptation, and how it could come about, is important for ongoing technology investments in the public and private sectors, for infrastructure investments, and for the various policies that address agriculture directly or indirectly. This paper is an interdisciplinary study by collaborating with climate scientist, agronomists, economists, and ecologists. We first use statistical models to estimate impacts of climate change on major crop yields (wheat, corn, soybeans, sorghum, and cotton) and predict changes in crop yields under future climate condition using downscaled climate projections from CMIP5. Then, we feed the predicted yield changes to a partial equilibrium economic model (FASOM-GHG) to evaluate economic and environmental outcomes including changes in land uses (i.e., cropland, pastureland, forest land, urban land and land for conservation) in United States. Finally, we use outputs from FASOM-GHG as inputs for the ST-SIM ecological model to simulate future carbon dynamics through changes in land use under future climate conditions and discuss the rate of adaptation through land-use changes. Findings in this paper have several merits compared to previous findings in the literature. First, we add economic components to the carbon calculation. It is important to include socio-economic conditions when calculating carbon emission and/or carbon sequestration because human activities are the major contribution to atmosphere GHG emissions. Second, we use the most recent downscaled climate projections from CMIP5 to capture uncertainties from climate model projections. Instead of using all GCMs, we select five GCMs to represent the ensemble. Third, we use a bottom-up approach because we start from micro-level data

  8. Land use change and human systems dynamics: Cotacachi Ecuador 1963-2000

    OpenAIRE

    Rhoades, Robert E.

    2004-01-01

    This presentation reports on a study to analyze land-use change over 40 years in Cotacachi, Ecuador, link land-use change to human system dynamics, and discuss implications for sustainability. BA-2 (SANREM-Andes Research)

  9. Gender Perspectives on Climate Change & Human Security in India: An Analysis of National Missions on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyoti K Parikh

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Women play a crucial role in many activities essential for coping with climate change. Indian women appear to be more vulnerable than men to differential impacts of climate change because they share most of the household managing responsibilities but have limited access to participation in decision making and governance. Most of the policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation do not specifically address the vulnerability of women. The National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC, formulated to shape future discourse of climate change adaptation and development, recognizes the differential impacts of climate change on society, but incorporates merely a few gender specific measures. The paper suggests gender specific measures for each mission of the NAPCC to make the adaptation and development process more inclusive and sustainable in India.

  10. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  11. Architecting security with Paradigm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andova, S.; Groenewegen, L.P.J.; Verschuren, J.H.S.; Vink, de E.P.; Lemos, de R.; Fabre, J.C.; Gacek, C.; Gadducci, F.; Beek, ter M.

    2009-01-01

    For large security systems a clear separation of concerns is achieved through architecting. Particularly the dynamic consistency between the architectural components should be addressed, in addition to individual component behaviour. In this paper, relevant dynamic consistency is specified through

  12. Carter, Reagan, and Congress: The Changing Dynamics of Security Assistance and Arms Sales

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    only enumerated power given to the President in the Constitution is the title of Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces. As part of the separation of powers , Congress...constitutional separation of powers and the law was struck down on the grounds that this type of resolution fails the test of presentment to the

  13. Network destabilization and transition in depression : New methods for studying the dynamics of therapeutic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hayes, A. M.; Yasinski, C.; Ben Barnes, J.; Bockting, C. L. H.

    2015-01-01

    The science of dynamic systems is the study of pattern formation and system change. Dynamic systems theory can provide a useful framework for understanding the chronicity of depression and its treatment. We propose a working model of therapeutic change with potential to organize findings from

  14. Biodiversity, climate change and complexity: An opportunity for securing co-benefits?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roe, Dilys

    2006-10-15

    Climate change and biodiversity loss are both major environmental concerns, yet the links between them often go unrecognised. Not only does the science of climate change and biodiversity share similar characteristics, but climate change both affects, and is affected by biodiversity. Diversity confers far greater resilience on natural systems, thus reducing their vulnerability – and the vulnerability of the people that depend upon them – to climate change. Yet climate adaptation and mitigation strategies that are blind to biodiversity can undermine this natural and social resilience. Ignoring the links between biodiversity and climate risks exacerbates the problems associated with climate change and represents a missed opportunity for maximising co-benefits.

  15. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  16. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  17. Dynamic model of minimax control over economic security state of the region in the presence of risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Fedorovich Shorikov

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Investigation and solution of management of economic security state in the region (MESSR requires development of a dynamic economic-mathematical model that takes into account the presence of control actions, uncontrolled parameters (risk modeling errors, etc. and availability of information deficit. At the same time, the existing approaches to solving such problems are based primarily on static models and the use of stochastic modeling of the device, which is required for the application of knowledge of the probability characteristics of the main model parameters and special conditions for the realization of the process. We should note that to use the apparatus of stochastic modeling, very strict conditions are required, which in practice are usually not feasible in advance In this paper, we propose to use a deterministic approach for modeling and solving the original problem in the form of a dynamic programming problem of minimax control (optimization of a guaranteed result MESSR at the determined point of time, taking into account the availability of risks of deterministic and stochastic nature (combined risks model. At thesametime, under therisks in thesocial and economic system we understand thefactors that negatively catastrophically affect the results of the reviewed processes inside it. For an effective use, a technique of prediction and assessment of time rows and stochastic risks in MESSR optimization process is presented, which can serve as a basis for the development of appropriate computer software. To solve the problem of program minimax control MESSR in the presence of risks, we propose a method which is reduced to the realization of a finite number of solutions of linear and convex mathematical programming and discrete optimization problem. The proposed method makes it possible to develop efficient numerical procedures to implement computer simulation of the dynamics of the problem, build program minimax control and gain optimal

  18. One Health, One World—The Intersecting Legal Regimes of Trade, Climate Change, Food Security, Humanitarian Crises, and Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelli K. Garcia

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Today’s global health challenges require a multi-sectoral approach in which health is a fundamental value within global governance and international law. “One Health, One World” provides a unified, harmonious vision of global health governance that supports the wellbeing of humans and animals living in a clean and temperate environment. This article focuses on five legal regimes—trade law, food security law, environmental law, humanitarian law, and refugee law—that play a pivotal role in influencing health outcomes and are integral to achieving the One Health, One World vision. International trade, for example, opens markets not only to life-saving products such as vaccines, medicines, and medical equipment, but also to life-threatening products such as tobacco and asbestos. If strengthened and enforced, environmental law can decrease air and water pollution, major causes of death and disability. World hunger has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis and climate change, increasing the urgency for international law to enhance food security. Humanitarian law must similarly be strengthened to protect civilians adequately as the nature of warfare continues to change. Refugee law plays a pivotal role in protecting the health of deeply vulnerable people who lack food, shelter, and social stability. Higher standards and more effective compliance are necessary for international law to realize its full potential to safeguard the world's population.

  19. Demographics and Volatile Social Security Wealth: Political Risks of Benefit Rule Changes in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Christoph Borgmann; Matthias Heidler

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we address the question how the generosity of the benefit rule of the German public pension system has changed during the past three decades and how this development can be explained by demographic changes. Firstly, we illustrate the political risk of benefit rule changes for individuals. We find that depending on the birth year and the considered scenario the relative losses vary between 30 and nearly 60 percent. Secondly, we estimate how demographic developments have triggered...

  20. Chinese and Russian Policies on Climate Change: Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    crop productivity in China by 2030 as a result of climate change, and a decline of up to 37 percent in rice, maize , and wheat yields after 2050...against global warming. Comparing and contrasting China’s and Russia’s climate change policies and programs may also help to identify gaps in...adequate measures to adapt agriculture to climate change, the annual economic loss from a decrease in climate-determined crop yield in Russia is

  1. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  2. Dynamic Computation of Change Operations in Version Management of Business Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Küster, Jochen Malte; Gerth, Christian; Engels, Gregor

    Version management of business process models requires that changes can be resolved by applying change operations. In order to give a user maximal freedom concerning the application order of change operations, position parameters of change operations must be computed dynamically during change resolution. In such an approach, change operations with computed position parameters must be applicable on the model and dependencies and conflicts of change operations must be taken into account because otherwise invalid models can be constructed. In this paper, we study the concept of partially specified change operations where parameters are computed dynamically. We provide a formalization for partially specified change operations using graph transformation and provide a concept for their applicability. Based on this, we study potential dependencies and conflicts of change operations and show how these can be taken into account within change resolution. Using our approach, a user can resolve changes of business process models without being unnecessarily restricted to a certain order.

  3. Electrons in Great Britain: Could a Change of Government Affect Security Policy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    ...) party that has been in power for 18 years. Despite a fairly solid economic performance it is 25 points behind in the polls as of March March 16th. Labor's young and dynamic leader, Mr. Tony Blair, is trying to create a new Labor Party which is not controlled by the unions. But, despite some useful party reforms, some shadow cabinet members, MPs and union backers still express strong socialist views.

  4. Cannabis changes: Understanding dynamics of use and dependence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liebregts, N.

    2015-01-01

    Cannabis is the most widely used illicit drug. Part of ever-users become frequent users and continue to use over a longer period. 600 frequent users (18-30 years) were enrolled in a 3-year longitudinal study. Trajectories of frequent cannabis use and cannabis dependence appeared very dynamic.

  5. Security system signal supervision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chritton, M.R.; Matter, J.C.

    1991-09-01

    This purpose of this NUREG is to present technical information that should be useful to NRC licensees for understanding and applying line supervision techniques to security communication links. A review of security communication links is followed by detailed discussions of link physical protection and DC/AC static supervision and dynamic supervision techniques. Material is also presented on security for atmospheric transmission and video line supervision. A glossary of security communication line supervision terms is appended. 16 figs

  6. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  7. The Household Economy Approach. Managing the impact of climate change on poverty and food security in developing countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Seaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have severe effects on the populations of developing countries because many of these depend heavily on agriculture for income, have large impoverished rural populations which rely on agriculture for subsistence, and are financially and technically least equipped to adapt to changing conditions. Planning to target measures to support adaptation to reduce the impact of climate change on poverty and food insecurity requires methods of identifying vulnerable households. This paper describes an established approach to vulnerability assessment, the ‘Household Economy Approach’ (HEA and its potential application to the management of climate change in developing countries. The HEA is widely used by Governments and others, chiefly in Africa, for the assessment of household vulnerability to poverty and food security. HEA uses a model based on Amartya Sen’s entitlement theory and detailed social and economic data to simulate the impact of weather related, price, policy and other shocks on household income and food access, to provide information for decision making. In developing countries climate change will be experienced in terms of increased climate variability and an increased frequency of extreme events. HEA provides a way of managing the effects of year to year shocks to prevent impoverishment and the erosion of household resilience. It also provides the information needed to develop scenarios to support the design of policies to support longer term adaptation. HEA data has already been collected for large areas of Africa.

  8. ATTACHMENT IN INFANTS WITH CLEFT LIP AND/OR PALATE: MARGINAL SECURITY AND ITS CHANGES OVER TIME.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghini, Ayala; Despars, Josée; Habersaat, Stéphanie; Turpin, Hélène; Monnier, Maryline; Ansermet, François; Hohlfeld, Judith; Muller-Nix, Carole

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the attachment quality and how this changed over time among infants who had cleft lip and palate (CLP), by conducting a prospective longitudinal study addressing the effects of this type of perinatal event on the parent-infant relationship and the emotional development of the infants. At 12 months of age, the Strange Situation Paradigm (SSP; M. Ainsworth, M.C. Blehar, E. Waters, & T. Wall, 1978) was administered to a sample of 38 CLP infants (born between 2003 and 2010) and 17 healthy controls. At 4 years of age, the Attachment Story Completion Task (ASCT; I. Bretherton, D. Ridgeway, & J. Cassidy, 1990) was administered to 32 individuals from the CLP sample and 14 from the control group. As reported in the literature, CLP infants display secure attachment behaviors as frequently as do control infants (55%). However, a more detailed analysis of the attachment scales revealed that CLP infants show more avoidance and less proximity seeking. In addition, a closer examination of the subcategories of attachment styles revealed that most CLP infants (71%) displayed distal attachment strategies such as the B1/B2 or A1/A2 subcategories. At 4 years old, CLP infants clearly displayed more deactivation and less security than did the control sample. Moreover, when detailing the evolution of attachment individually, almost 60% of the CLP children showing distal strategies at 12 months became deactivated or disorganized when they reached 4 years. Indeed, subtle differences in attachment behaviors at 12 months old-which can be considered marginally secure at that age-may reveal attachment vulnerabilities, which seem to be more apparent over the course of development. © 2018 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  9. Exploring the elements and dynamics of transformational change

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    D.Phil. (Leadership in Performance and Change) The desire for organisational competitiveness as a result of factors such as the changing and increasing needs of customers, deregulation, the globalisation of the economy and work, the increasing competition due to globalisation, the need to control costs and increase efficiency, as well as the fast pace of technological advancement, has compelled organisations to embark on changes that take place at a fast and ever-increasing rate. However, ...

  10. Changing Gender Norms and Marriage Dynamics in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessin, Léa

    2018-02-01

    Using a regional measure of gender norms from the General Social Surveys together with marital histories from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study explored how gender norms were associated with women's marriage dynamics between 1968 and 2012. Results suggested that a higher prevalence of egalitarian gender norms predicted a decline in marriage formation. This decline was, however, only true for women without a college degree. For college-educated women, the association between gender norms and marriage formation became positive when gender egalitarianism prevailed. The findings also revealed an inverted U-shaped relationship between gender norms and divorce: an initial increase in divorce was observed when gender norms were predominantly traditional. The association, however, reversed as gender norms became egalitarian. No differences by education were found for divorce. The findings partially support the gender revolution framework but also highlight greater barriers to marriage for low-educated women as societies embrace gender equality.

  11. The dynamics of change in decision making under risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milićević Aleksandar

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to investigate the dynamics of decision making under risk. In three experiments this dynamics have been explored with respect to probability of outcome and with respect to frame, i.e. the way the outcomes of the alternatives have been specified. The process of decision making was explored within a framework of expected utility and Prospect theory. The outcomes of alternatives as well as their probabilities were quantitatively specified (so that the expected value of a risk alternative was equal to the value of a non-risk alternative. The results of experiments indicate that the attitude towards risk (risk-proneness vs. risk-averseness depends on the outcome probability and the way the outcomes were specified (i.e. positive/negative frame. It was also demonstrated that content strongly affects the choices made in decision making. This outcome is somewhat unexpected and requires additional empirical evaluation.

  12. Adaptive contact networks change effective disease infectiousness and dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Segbroeck, Sven; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

    2010-08-19

    Human societies are organized in complex webs that are constantly reshaped by a social dynamic which is influenced by the information individuals have about others. Similarly, epidemic spreading may be affected by local information that makes individuals aware of the health status of their social contacts, allowing them to avoid contact with those infected and to remain in touch with the healthy. Here we study disease dynamics in finite populations in which infection occurs along the links of a dynamical contact network whose reshaping may be biased based on each individual's health status. We adopt some of the most widely used epidemiological models, investigating the impact of the reshaping of the contact network on the disease dynamics. We derive analytical results in the limit where network reshaping occurs much faster than disease spreading and demonstrate numerically that this limit extends to a much wider range of time scales than one might anticipate. Specifically, we show that from a population-level description, disease propagation in a quickly adapting network can be formulated equivalently as disease spreading on a well-mixed population but with a rescaled infectiousness. We find that for all models studied here--SI, SIS and SIR--the effective infectiousness of a disease depends on the population size, the number of infected in the population, and the capacity of healthy individuals to sever contacts with the infected. Importantly, we indicate how the use of available information hinders disease progression, either by reducing the average time required to eradicate a disease (in case recovery is possible), or by increasing the average time needed for a disease to spread to the entire population (in case recovery or immunity is impossible).

  13. EMG-Torque Dynamics Change With Contraction Bandwidth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golkar, Mahsa A; Jalaleddini, Kian; Kearney, Robert E

    2018-04-01

    An accurate model for ElectroMyoGram (EMG)-torque dynamics has many uses. One of its applications which has gained high attention among researchers is its use, in estimating the muscle contraction level for the efficient control of prosthesis. In this paper, the dynamic relationship between the surface EMG and torque during isometric contractions at the human ankle was studied using system identification techniques. Subjects voluntarily modulated their ankle torque in dorsiflexion direction, by activating their tibialis anterior muscle, while tracking a pseudo-random binary sequence in a torque matching task. The effects of contraction bandwidth, described by torque spectrum, on EMG-torque dynamics were evaluated by varying the visual command switching time. Nonparametric impulse response functions (IRF) were estimated between the processed surface EMG and torque. It was demonstrated that: 1) at low contraction bandwidths, the identified IRFs had unphysiological anticipatory (i.e., non-causal) components, whose amplitude decreased as the contraction bandwidth increased. We hypothesized that this non-causal behavior arose, because the EMG input contained a component due to feedback from the output torque, i.e., it was recorded from within a closed-loop. Vision was not the feedback source since the non-causal behavior persisted when visual feedback was removed. Repeating the identification using a nonparametric closed-loop identification algorithm yielded causal IRFs at all bandwidths, supporting this hypothesis. 2) EMG-torque dynamics became faster and the bandwidth of system increased as contraction modulation rate increased. Thus, accurate prediction of torque from EMG signals must take into account the contraction bandwidth sensitivity of this system.

  14. Glacial cycles:exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kaufmann, R. K.; Juselius, Katarina

    2010-01-01

    We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduc...

  15. Dynamic changes in biochemical markers of renal function with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thyroid dysfunction is known to cause significant changes in glomerular filtration rate. The present cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate the changes in biochemical markers of renal function in hypothyroid subjects before and after treatment. Thyroid function tests (T3, T4 and TSH levels) were assayed in 385 ...

  16. Dynamics in Responsible Land Administration; Change at Five Levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zevenbergen, Jaap; de Vries, W.T.; Bennett, Rohan

    2018-01-01

    Fundamentally, the term 'administration' suggests bureaucratic, controlled and steady, if not slow, paces of change. However the relations between people and land, that land administration attempts to capture, are the very opposite and are changing rapidly. At all levels of abstraction, land

  17. Carbon Dynamics in Heathlands in Response to a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Pia Lund

    Climate is changing, and more adverse changes are expected in the future. Changes, caused by continuously rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses as CO2, will affect ecosystem processes and functions in the future and hence the cycling of carbon. The vaste amount of studies have...... layers showed much slower decomposition than fine root from top layer. Higher roots biomass and allocation of carbon deeper down in the soil profile in response to elevated CO2 combined with the slower decomposition of deep roots could affect future carbon cycling, but soil carbon sequestration depends...... focused on effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, less have been conducted on belowground biomass, and the thesis is one of few studies comprising both above- and belowground biomass and take interactions of climate change factors into account. To follow the fate of carbon in the ecosystem we...

  18. Envisioning Urban Farming for Food Security during the Climate Change Era. Vertical Farm within Highly Urbanized Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Januszkiewicz, Krystyna; Jarmusz, Małgorzata

    2017-10-01

    Global climate change constitutes a serious threat to global security including food production in the following decades. This paper is focused on a new possibility and advisability of creating a systemic solution to resolve the problem of food security in highly-urbanized areas. The first part of the paper deal with historical development vertical farms ideas and defines the main environmental and spatial constrains also it indicates that vertical farms are going to be part of the future horticultural production. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by authors. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights an integrating large-scale horticultural production directly into the cities, where the most of the food consumption takes place. In conclusions emphasizes, that the design will force architects, engineers and urban planners to completely revise and redefine contemporary design process and understanding of the idea-fix of sustainable design. To successfully migrate food production from extensive rural areas to dense environment of city centres, a new holistic approach, integrating knowledge and advances of multiple fields of science, have to develop.

  19. A Dynamic Security Framework for Ambient Intelligent Systems: A Smart-Home Based eHealth Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compagna, Luca; El Khoury, Paul; Massacci, Fabio; Saidane, Ayda

    Providing context-dependent security services is an important challenge for ambient intelligent systems. The complexity and the unbounded nature of such systems make it difficult even for the most experienced and knowledgeable security engineers, to foresee all possible situations and interactions when developing the system. In order to solve this problem context based self- diagnosis and reconfiguration at runtime should be provided.

  20. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  1. Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatuase, A. I.

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.

  2. Research on early warning of food security using a system dynamics model: evidence from Jiangsu province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianling; Ding, Yi

    2015-01-01

    Analyzing the early warning of food security, this paper sets the self-sufficiency rate as the principal indicator in a standpoint of supplement. It is common to use the quantitative methods to forecast and warning the insecurity. However, this paper considers more about the probable outcome when the government intervenes. By constructing the causal feedbacks among grain supplement, demand, productive input, and the policy factors to simulate the future food security in Jiangsu province, conclusions can be drawn as the following: (1) The situation of food security is insecure if the self-sufficiency rate is under 68.3% according to the development of system inertia. (2) it is difficult to guarantee the food security in Jiangsu just depending on the increase of grain sown area. (3) The valid solution to ensure the food security in Jiangsu is to improve the productivity. © 2015 Institute of Food Technologists®

  3. Security Engine Management of Router based on Security Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Su Hyung Jo; Ki Young Kim; Sang Ho Lee

    2007-01-01

    Security management has changed from the management of security equipments and useful interface to manager. It analyzes the whole security conditions of network and preserves the network services from attacks. Secure router technology has security functions, such as intrusion detection, IPsec(IP Security) and access control, are applied to legacy router for secure networking. It controls an unauthorized router access and detects an illegal network intrusion. This paper re...

  4. Effect of Climate and Agricultural Land Use Changes on UK Feed Barley Production and Food Security to the 2050s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O. Yawson

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the UK has a high self-sufficiency rate in barley production. This paper assessed the effects of projected climate and land use changes on feed barley production and, consequently, on meat supply in the UK from the 2030s to the 2050s. Total barley production under projected land use and climate changes ranged from 4.6 million tons in the 2030s to 9.0 million tons in the 2050s. From these, the projected feed barley supply ranged from approximately 2.3 to 4.6 million tons from the 2030s to the 2050s, respectively. The results indicate that while UK spring barley production will thrive under, and benefit from climate change, total land area allocated to barley production will ultimately determine self-sufficiency. Without expansion in the area of land and/or further significant increases in yields, the UK may face large deficits in domestic feed barley production and, for that matter, meat supply in the future. Hence, agricultural and food security policy needs to consider, principally, the effect of agricultural land use change on key crops, such as barley. Even though the UK can import feed barley or meat to address the deficits observed in this study, the question that needs to be addressed is where all that import will come from.

  5. Cortical dynamics of visual change detection based on sensory memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urakawa, Tomokazu; Inui, Koji; Yamashiro, Koya; Tanaka, Emi; Kakigi, Ryusuke

    2010-08-01

    Detecting a visual change was suggested to relate closely to the visual sensory memory formed by visual stimuli before the occurrence of the change, because change detection involves identifying a difference between ongoing and preceding sensory conditions. Previous neuroimaging studies showed that an abrupt visual change activates the middle occipital gyrus (MOG). However, it still remains to be elucidated whether the MOG is related to visual change detection based on sensory memory. Here we tried to settle this issue using a new method of stimulation with blue and red LEDs to emphasize a memory-based change detection process. There were two stimuli, a standard trial stimulus and a deviant trial stimulus. The former was a red light lasting 500 ms, and the latter was a red light lasting 250 ms immediately followed by a blue light lasting 250 ms. Effects of the trial-trial interval, 250 approximately 2000 ms, were investigated to know how cortical responses to the abrupt change (from red to blue) were affected by preceding conditions. The brain response to the deviant trial stimulus was recorded by magnetoencephalography. Results of a multi-dipole analysis showed that the activity in the MOG, peaking at around 150 ms after the change onset, decreased in amplitude as the interval increased, but the earlier activity in BA 17/18 was not affected by the interval. These results suggested that the MOG is an important cortical area relating to the sensory memory-based visual change-detecting system. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

    2012-10-01

    A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

  7. Implications of policies and prevent climate change for future food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Scott, M.J.

    1993-07-01

    Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), afforestation, and geoengineering ``fixes`` have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will impact agriculture and other sectors of the economy. this report discusses the above impacts.

  8. Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taithe, Alexandre

    2007-01-01

    The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

  9. School Psychologists: Leaders for Change Building a Secure Future for Children. CASS Digest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Carol

    This digest examines the role of school psychologists in improving educational opportunities for children and adolescents. A variety of issues that affect children and their ability to learn are discussed: widening social class differences and increases in the number of children living in poverty; changing value systems; family disintegration;…

  10. Changing Gender Role: Women’s Livelihoods, Conflict and Post-conflict Security in Nepal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luna, K.C.; Haar, van der Gemma; Hilhorst, Dorothea

    2017-01-01

    This article examines how the Maoist conflict in Nepal affected women ex-combatants and non-combatants, looking at shifts in gender roles during and after the conflict particularly from the standpoint of current livelihood challenges. We argue changing gender roles largely depends upon everyday

  11. Family Size, Looming Demographic Changes and the Efficiency of Social Security Reform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Leers, T.; Meijdam, A.C.

    2000-01-01

    This paper analyses the eeffects of ageing and child support in a model with endogenous fertility and Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions. First, we show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and changes in life expectancy. In particular, we show that the

  12. Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazaris, Antonios D; Germond, Basil

    2018-09-01

    For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. The dynamics of CRM attitude change: Attitude stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregorich, Steven E.

    1993-01-01

    Special training seminars in cockpit resource management (CRM) are designed to enhance crew effectiveness in multicrew air-transport cockpits. In terms of CRM, crew effectiveness is defined by teamwork rather than technical proficiency. These seminars are designed to promote factual learning, alter aviator attitudes, and motivate aviators to make use of what they have learned. However, measures of attitude change resulting from CRM seminars have been the most common seminar evaluation technique. The current investigation explores a broader range of attitude change parameters with specific emphasis on the stability of change between recurrent visits to the training center. This allows for a comparison of training program strengths in terms of seminar ability to effect lasting change.

  14. Climate induced changes in beach morphology and sediment dynamics, Machilipatnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.

    The wave climate, littoral current patterns, monthly and seasonal longshore drift rates, beach profile changes, and sediment budget of the beach sediments were determined along Machilipatnam, Andhra Pradesh (India) for the NE, SW monsoons...

  15. Waves of change - the dynamics of institutional pressures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Woolthuis, R.J.A.; Taminiau, Yvette

    2017-01-01

    This article coins additional explanations for organizations’ room for agency and institutional change by bringing all institutional and competitive pressures back into institutional theory, and by introducing theory on how the interaction between these pressures leads to novelty, contradictions,

  16. Urban Dynamics: Analyzing Land Use Change in Urban Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acevedo, William; Richards, Lora R.; Buchanan, Janis T.; Wegener, Whitney R.

    2000-01-01

    In FY99, the Earth Resource Observation System (EROS) staff at Ames continued managing the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Urban Dynamics Research program, which has mapping and analysis activities at five USGS mapping centers. Historic land use reconstruction work continued while activities in geographic analysis and modeling were expanded. Retrospective geographic information system (GIS) development - the spatial reconstruction of a region's urban land-use history - focused on the Detroit River Corridor, California's Central Valley, and the city of Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

  17. Experimental analysis and simulation of the dynamic response of a propeller pitch change actuator

    OpenAIRE

    LECLERCQ, Maxime; MALBURET, François; VERON, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses specifically on the control of the propeller pitch change mechanisms and their associated dynamics. The subject of this article is restricted to the mechanisms using a hydraulic single acting actuator. They function asymmetrically and are subject to important varying external loads under the full flight envelope. This phenomenon has an impact on their dynamic response.The question of the dynamics of these systems is rarely dealt with because, usually for aircraft applicatio...

  18. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiqi Luo; Jerry Melillo; Shuli Niu; Claus Beier; James S. Clark; Aime E.T. Classen; Eric Dividson; Jeffrey S. Dukes; R. Dave Evans; Christopher B. Field; Claudia I. Czimczik; Michael Keller; Bruce A. Kimball; Lara M. Kueppers; Richard J. Norby; Shannon L. Pelini; Elise Pendall; Edward Rastetter; Johan Six; Melinda Smith; Mark G. Tjoelker; Margaret S. Torn

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes...

  19. Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

    2017-06-01

    In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

  20. Unavailability Analysis of Dynamic Systems of which the Configuration Changes with Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic system has a state at any given time which can be represented by a point in an appropriate state space and it is much more difficult to estimate the reliability or availability than a static system. As the classic fault tree cannot be used to model the time requirements, dynamic fault tree methods have been developed for the analysis of dynamic systems. They are time-dependent fault trees, so they can capture the dynamic behaviors of the system failure mechanisms. There exist two types of dynamic fault trees to analyze various dynamic properties of the system failure mechanisms. One dynamic fault tree handles failure mechanisms composed of sequence-dependent events using dynamic gates and the other one handles failure mechanisms of which the system configuration changes with time using house event matrix. In this paper, the second dynamic failure mechanism is assessed using a reliability graph with general gates (RGGG) which is an extended reliability graph model and allows more intuitive modeling of target systems compared to the fault tree. In order for the RGGG method to analyze such dynamic failure mechanism, a novel concept of reliability matrix for the RGGG is introduced and Bayesian Networks are used to quantify the modeled RGGG. The proposed method provides much easier way to model dynamic systems and understand the actual structure of the system compared to the dynamic fault tree with house events

  1. Authentication and Data Security in ITS Telecommunications Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Zelinka

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Paper presents telecommunications security issues with dynamically changing networking. Paper also presents performance indicators of authentication as an integral part of the approach to non-public information. Expected level of security depend on relevant ITS services requirements, different solutions require different levels of quality. Data volumes transferred both in private data vehicle on board networks as well as between vehicles and infrastructure or other vehicles significantly and progressively grow. This trend leads to increase of the fatal problems if security of the wide area networks is not relevantly treated. Relevant communications security treatment becomes crucial part of the ITS telecommunications solution because probability of hazards appearances grow if vehicles networks are integrated in the dynamically organized wide area networks. Besides of available "off shelf" security tools solution based on non-public universal identifier with dynamical extension and data selection according to actor role or category is presented including performances indicators for the authentication process.

  2. 21st Century Security Manager

    OpenAIRE

    Stelian ARION

    2010-01-01

    We live in world of uncertainty that generates major paradigms changing that affect security risk management. Modern organization’s security risks management can’t be done without a profound knowlegde and daily practice for security governance, security risk management and resilience. 21st Century security manager need to deal with several areas of konwledge in order to succesfully manage security risks. The document presents the advantages, disadvantages and challenges for security managers ...

  3. Climate change, energy security, and risk-debating nuclear new build in Finland, France and the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teraevaeinen, Tuula; Lehtonen, Markku; Martiskainen, Mari

    2011-01-01

    Concerns about climate change and energy security have been major arguments used to justify the recent return of nuclear power as a serious electricity generation option in various parts of the world. This article examines the recent public discussion in Finland, France, and the UK - three countries currently in the process of constructing or planning new nuclear power stations. To place the public discussion on nuclear power within the relationship between policy discourses and contexts, the article addresses three interrelated themes: the justifications and discursive strategies employed by nuclear advocates and critics, the similarities and differences in debates between the three countries, and the interaction between the country-specific state orientations and the argumentation concerning nuclear power. Drawing from documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews, the article identifies and analyses key discursive strategies and their use in the context of the respective state orientations: 'technology-and-industry-know-best' in Finland, 'government-knows-best' in France, and 'markets-know-best' in the UK. The nuclear debates illustrate subtle ongoing transformations in these orientations, notably in the ways in which the relations between markets, the state, and civil society are portrayed in the nuclear debates. - Highlights: → Focus on argumentation on new nuclear power in Finland, France, and the UK. → Nuclear power is justified by climate change, energy security, and independence. → The credibility of discursive strategies varies across countries. → Country-specific state orientations shape the success of discursive strategies. → Discursive strategies contain normative claims about state-society relations.

  4. Earthquake related dynamic groundwater pressure changes observed at the Kamaishi Mine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasaki, Shunji; Yasuike, Shinji; Komada, Hiroya; Kobayashi, Yoshimasa; Kawamura, Makoto; Aoki, Kazuhiro

    1999-01-01

    From 342 seismic records observed at the Kamaishi Mine form 1990 to 1998, a total of 92 data whose acceleration is greater than 1 gal or ground water pressure is greater than 1 kPa were selected and dynamic ground water pressure changes associated with earthquakes were studied. The results obtained are as follows: (1) A total of 27 earthquakes accompanied by static ground water pressure changes were observed. Earthquake-related static ground water pressure changes are smaller than 1/10 of the annual range of ground water pressure changes. There is also a tendency that the ground water pressure changes recovers to its original trend in several weeks after earthquakes. (2) Dynamic ground water pressure changes associated with earthquakes occur when P-waves arrive. However, the largest dynamic ground water pressure changes occur on S-wave part arrivals where the amplitude of seismic wave is the largest. A positive correlation is recognized between the maximum value of velocity wave form and that of dynamic ground water pressure changes. (3) The characteristic of dynamic change in ground water pressure due to earthquakes can be explained qualitatively by mechanism in which the P-wave converted from an incident SV wave propagates along the borehole. (author)

  5. Around the Fishing Net: Leadership Dynamics for Change in an American International School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami-Ramalho, Elizabeth; Benham, Maenette

    2010-01-01

    This study explored the active involvement of school and community members investing in leadership dynamics for change, especially considering the increasingly globalized world and the importance of preparing globally minded citizens. To explore how educators and leaders work to foster dynamic learning experiences in a highly mobile global…

  6. The Implications of Changing Power Generation Mix on Energy Pricing and Security in Ghana

    OpenAIRE

    Acheampong, Theophilus

    2016-01-01

    Despite almost a decade of strong economic growth, Ghana still lags behind in its ability to generate enough power to catalyse this growth. The rapid deceleration in economic activity over the past three years has been primarily due to persistent energy supply constraints and rising energy-related input costs to production. This article analyses the implications of the changing power generation mix for electricity pricing in Ghana taking into account new capacity additions to the generation m...

  7. Climate change: The need for a human rights agenda within a framework of shared human security

    OpenAIRE

    Gasper, Des

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis edited volume publishes as a special issue of the quarterly social science journal Social Research, a collection of articles on Human Rights and the Global Economy. The topics addressed are Human Rights and Economy Policy; Global Poverty and the Obligations of Rich Countries; Human Rights, Climate Change and Global Justice; and Corporations and Human Rights Obligations. This issue contains the edited proceedings of the November 2011 conference at the New School, where experts...

  8. Climate Change and Poor Water Resource Management Will Have Serious Security Implications in the Balkan Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-12

    climate change on water resources. Many of these areas (e.g., Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa, northeast Brazil , southern...urbanizing, more affluent populations, and substantial economic growth in India, China, Brazil , and other nations, will devastate homes, land, and...portion (90%) came from Europe and 70% from EU countries. In 2003, the accommodation capacity was approximately 650,000 beds in more than 8,500 hotels

  9. Climate Change Implications to the Global Security Environment, U.S. Interests, and Future Naval Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-14

    Central and South America . Reactive HA/DR, on the other hand is a crisis response operation which employs naval expeditionary capabilities to meet...have a wide spectrum of adverse effects on global health, particularly in developing nations. Increased rates and extended ranges of malaria, dengue ...scope of our response when the time comes. " Vice Admiral Richard Truly, Director, Department of Energy National Renewable En ~rgy Lab22 Climate Change

  10. The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-01

    latitudes because of stronger extratropical storm systems, including severe winter storms . General Patterns of Projected Climate Change This section...tropical cyclones, including typhoons and hurri- canes, and extratropical cyclones (i.e., mid-latitude storms ). Tropical storms may become less fre...recorded history.138 Similarly, it is unusual for tropical storms to make landfall in Europe , yet in 2005 the remnants of Hurricane Vince became the

  11. National Security Implications of Climate-related Risks and a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-23

    with military experts from Chile, Colombia, El Salvador , and Trinidad & Tobago, and presented the outcomes to the Inter- American Defense Board...in use for humanitarian assistance following the earthquakes in Nepal in 2015. The main source of funding for the GCCs’ HA/DR programs is the...although not necessarily climate change planning per se, for the last three years (after the Haiti earthquake in 2010) USSOUTHCOM has requested

  12. Climate Change in Central and West Asia. Routes to a More Secure, Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-11-15

    ADB's Central and West Asian countries are Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Geoclimatic and environmental factors make this region highly vulnerable to the risks and hazards of climate change. For example, accelerated glacial melt has serious implications for agriculture, water supply, and energy generation - problems exacerbated by overexploitation of natural resources. Countries may find it difficult to shift to low-carbon growth, since many have abundant fossil fuel and tend to use energy inefficiently. ADB is responding to these climate hazards and low-carbon pathways with a comprehensive strategy that strengthens policies, governance, and capacity support; expands the use of clean and renewable energy; encourages sustainable transport and urban development; promotes development that will be more resilient to climate change, especially in water-dependent sectors; and manages land use and forests for carbon sequestration. ADB's support is helping its developing member countries face the challenges of climate change and, with partners, is providing innovative solutions, while continuing to work to reduce poverty.

  13. A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new model of dynamic of plant biodiversity in changing farmlands: Implications for the management of plant biodiversity along differential environmental gradient in the Yellow River of Henan Province in the spring.

  14. The response of sediment source and transfer dynamics to land use (change) in the Lake Manyara catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynants, Maarten; Munishi, Linus; Solomon, Henok; Grenfell, Michael; Taylor, Alex; Millward, Geoff; Boeckx, Pascal; Ndakidemi, Patrick; Gilvear, David; Blake, William

    2017-04-01

    The Lake Manyara basin in the East African Rift Region of Tanzania is considered to be an important driver for sustainable development in northern Tanzania in terms of biodiversity conservation, ecotourism, fisheries, pastoralism and (irrigation) agriculture. Besides local conservation, Lake Manyara National Park and its surroundings also have a vital function as a wildlife corridor connecting the Tarangire and Maasai steppe ecosystem with the entire northern Tanzania and Southern Kenya collective of national parks and ecosystems. However, driven by population pressure, increasing number of farmers are establishing agricultural operations in the catchment, causing a shift of the natural vegetation towards agricultural land. Furthermore, pastoralists with ever growing cattle stocks are roaming the grasslands, causing a decrease in soil structure due to overgrazing and compaction of the soil. We hypothesize that these processes increase the vulnerability to erosion, which presents a credible threat to ecosystem service provision, on the one hand the agricultural- and rangelands where loss of this finite resource threatens food security and people's livelihoods and on the other hand the water bodies, where siltation and eutrophication threatens the water quality and biodiversity. Knowledge of sediment source and transfer dynamics in the main tributaries of Lake Manyara and the response of these dynamics to land use (change) is critical to inform sustainable management policy decisions to maintain and enhance future food and water security. Using geochemical tracing techniques and Bayesian unmixing models we were able to attribute the lake sediment proportionally to its contributing tributaries. Furthermore, we were able to identify differences in erosion processes in different tributary systems using gamma spectrometry measurements of surface-elevated fallout radionuclides (137Cs and 210Pb). In our results we found that almost half of the sediment in the lake could be

  15. RGB-NDVI colour composites for visualizing forest change dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sader, S. A.; Winne, J. C.

    1992-01-01

    The study presents a simple and logical technique to display and quantify forest change using three dates of satellite imagery. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was computed for each date of imagery to define high and low vegetation biomass. Color composites were generated by combining each date of NDVI with either the red, green, or blue (RGB) image planes in an image display monitor. Harvest and regeneration areas were quantified by applying a modified parallelepiped classification creating an RGB-NDVI image with 27 classes that were grouped into nine major forest change categories. Aerial photographs and stand history maps are compared with the forest changes indicated by the RGB-NDVI image. The utility of the RGB-NDVI technique for supporting forest inventories and updating forest resource information systems are presented and discussed.

  16. Local understanding of forest conservation in land use change dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaleh, Muhammad Adha; Guth, Miriam Karen; Rahman, Syed Ajijur

    2016-01-01

    Forest (SEPPSF), Malaysia. Nine in-depth interviews were conducted with Orang Asli Jakun living in SEPPSF using open-ended questions. Local communities have positive perspectives toward the forest conservation program, despite massive environmental changes in their living landscape. This study suggests......The success of local forest conservation program depends on a critical appreciation of local communities. Based on this understanding, the present study aims to explore people’s perspective of forest conservation in a context of changes in their living landscape at South East Pahang Peat Swamp...

  17. Impact of Dynamics of Planned Change on Employees Quality of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, we determined the impact of organizational planned change programmes on the quality of worklife (QWL) of employees. The study involved four organizations selected from both the private and public sector establishments in Port Harcourt. Two organizations were randomly selected from each sector.

  18. Loudness Change in Response to Dynamic Acoustic Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Kirk N.; Stevens, Catherine J.; Tardieu, Julien

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments investigate psychological, methodological, and domain-specific characteristics of loudness change in response to sounds that continuously increase in intensity (up-ramps), relative to sounds that decrease (down-ramps). Timbre (vowel, violin), layer (monotone, chord), and duration (1.8 s, 3.6 s) were manipulated in Experiment 1.…

  19. Understanding the dynamic changes in India's peri-urban regions ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Peri-urban areas, which are beyond a city's administrative limits but adjacent to it, are ... where there are resource constraints, and where access to services such as water, ... The project is funded through the Opportunity Fund of the Think Tank ... IDRC congratulates first cohort of Women in Climate Change Science Fellows.

  20. Changes in Fisheries and Social Dynamics in Tanzanian Coastal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    now being integrated into the communities. Approaches ... critical challenges, including global climate change ... economy and level of technology in Tanzania have led to a fast ... disintegration of the communal protection of resources. ... It also used to be the main fish-trading centre, especially for ..... Increased production.

  1. Gendering Change? Management, Masculinity and the Dynamics of Incorporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Pauline

    1998-01-01

    Explores the effect that recent changes in the management of the tertiary education sector have had on gender relations within further education organizations in the United Kingdom. Masculinity is perceived as an essential element of efficient management, a fact that has favored the marginalization of women. How women are responding is explored.…

  2. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  3. Nonexplicit change detection in complex dynamic settings: what eye movements reveal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, François; Vallières, Benoît R; Jones, Dylan M; Tremblay, Sébastien

    2012-12-01

    We employed a computer-controlled command-and-control (C2) simulation and recorded eye movements to examine the extent and nature of the inability to detect critical changes in dynamic displays when change detection is implicit (i.e., requires no explicit report) to the operator's task. Change blindness-the failure to notice significant changes to a visual scene-may have dire consequences on performance in C2 and surveillance operations. Participants performed a radar-based risk-assessment task involving multiple subtasks. Although participants were not required to explicitly report critical changes to the operational display, change detection was critical in informing decision making. Participants' eye movements were used as an index of visual attention across the display. Nonfixated (i.e., unattended) changes were more likely to be missed than were fixated (i.e., attended) changes, supporting the idea that focused attention is necessary for conscious change detection. The finding of significant pupil dilation for changes undetected but fixated suggests that attended changes can nonetheless be missed because of a failure of attentional processes. Change blindness in complex dynamic displays takes the form of failures in establishing task-appropriate patterns of attentional allocation. These findings have implications in the design of change-detection support tools for dynamic displays and work procedure in C2 and surveillance.

  4. System Dynamics of Polysilicon for Solar Photovoltaics: A Framework for Investigating the Energy Security of Renewable Energy Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Sandor

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy, produced with widely available low-cost energy resources, is often included as a component of national strategies to address energy security and sustainability. Market and political forces cannot disrupt the sun or wind, unlike oil and gas supplies. However, the cost of renewable energy is highly dependent on technologies manufactured through global supply chains in leading manufacturing countries. The countries that contribute to the global supply chains may take actions that, directly or indirectly, influence global access to materials and components. For example, high-purity polysilicon, a key material in solar photovoltaics, has experienced significant price fluctuations, affecting the manufacturing capacity and cost of both polysilicon and solar panels. This study developed and validated an initial system dynamics framework to gain insights into global trade in polysilicon. The model represents an initial framework for exploration. Three regions were modeled—China, the United States, and the rest of the world—for a range of trade scenarios to understand the impacts of import duties and non-price drivers on the relative volumes of imports and domestic supply. The model was validated with the historical case of China imposing an import duty on polysilicon from the United States, the European Union, and South Korea, which altered the regional flows of polysilicon—in terms of imports, exports, and domestic production—to varying degrees. As expected, the model tracked how regional demand shares and influx volumes decrease as a duty on a region increases. Using 2016 as a reference point, in the scenarios examined for U.S. exports to China, each 10% increase in the import duty results in a 40% decrease in import volume. The model also indicates that, under the scenarios investigated, once a duty has been imposed on a region, the demand share from that region declines and does not achieve pre-duty levels, even as global

  5. Ecological Land Fragmentation Evaluation and Dynamic Change of a Typical Black Soil Farming Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhan Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is a land use category provided with considerable ecological value and a vital indicator reflecting regional eco-environmental quality. However, it has experienced severe fragmentation during the rapid urbanization in China which strongly threatened the regional ecological security, land use pattern and human living environment. Therefore, analysis of spatiotemporal change of ecological land use and ecological landscape pattern is particularly essential. In this paper, a case study was made in Nong’an County, which is a typical black soil farming area located in northeast China facing severe conflicts among cultivated land protection, urban expansion and ecological security. A landscape fragmentation evaluation model was proposed to measure the degree of regional ecological land fragmentation. We also determined the land use change features through the methods of dynamic change information exploration and by performing transfer trajectory analysis during the period from 1996 to 2014. The results showed that the ecological land in Nong’an County has experienced increasing fragmentation during the past 18 years. The statistical results showed that the land transition between ecological land and other land categories was quite frequent, and it especially appeared as a dramatic decline of grassland and severe increase of saline-alkali land. In addition, human interferences especially construction activities and cultivated land occupation were still the dominant factors to the fragmentation of ecological land and the frequent transition among the land use categories. The fragmentation degree showed a downward tendency at the end of the study, which indicated noticeable benefits of land use regulation and land protection policies directed towards land ecological value. This study aims to provide a scientific evaluation model for measuring ecological land fragmentation degree, and figure out the regional land use transition

  6. Thermal radiation and nonthermal radiation of the slowly changing dynamic Kerr–Newman black hole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Qingmiao; Wang Shuai; Jiang Jijian; Deng Deli

    2008-01-01

    Using the related formula of dynamic black hole, we have calculated the instantaneous radiation energy density of the slowly changing dynamic Kerr–Newman black hole. It is found that the instantaneous radiation energy density of a black hole is always proportional to the quartic of the temperature of the event horizon in the same direction. By using the Hamilton–Jacobin equation of scalar particles in the curved spacetime, the spontaneous radiation of the slowly changing dynamic Kerr–Newman black hole is studied. The energy condition for the occurrence of the spontaneous radiation is obtained. (general)

  7. Adressing optimality principles in DGVMs: Dynamics of Carbon allocation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Stephan

    2017-04-01

    DGVMs are designed to reproduce and quantify ecosystem processes. Based on plant functions or species specific parameter sets, the energy, carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of different ecosystems are assessed. These models have been proven to be important tools to investigate ecosystem fluxes as they are derived by plant, site and environmental factors. The general model approach assumes steady state conditions and constant model parameters. Both assumptions, however, are wrong, since: (i) No given ecosystem ever is at steady state! (ii) Ecosystems have the capability to adapt to changes in growth conditions, e.g. via changes in allocation patterns! This presentation will give examples how these general failures within current DGVMs may be addressed.

  8. Dynamics of energy storage in phase change drywall systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darkwa, K.; Kim, J.-S. [Nottingham Trent University (United Kingdom). School of the Built Environment

    2005-07-01

    Experimental evaluations of manufactured samples of laminated and randomly mixed phase change material (PCM) drywalls have been carried out and compared with numerical results. The analysis showed that the laminated PCM drywall performed thermally better. Even though there was a maximum 3% deviation of the average experimental result from the numerical values, the laminated PCM board achieved about 55% of the phase change process as against 48% for the randomly distributed drywall sample. The laminated board sample also released about 27% more latent heat than the randomly distributed type at the optimum time of 90 min thus validating previous simulation study. Given the experimental conditions and assumptions the experiment has proved that it is feasible to develop the laminated PCM technique for enhancing and minimising multi-dimensional heat transfers in drywall systems. Further practical developments are however encouraged to improve the overall level of heat transfer. (author)

  9. Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegoke, J. O.

    2015-12-01

    Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

  10. Remaking nuclear politics? The dynamics of subgovernment change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, R.J.

    1991-01-01

    Changes in the politics of commercial nuclear power in the 1970s are examined. United by a conviction that the generation of electricity from fission was both necessary and desirable, the Atomic Energy Commission, the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy, and the nuclear power industry formed a classic subgovernment. Although such policy subsystems are presumed to be relatively autonomous and resistant to change, the convergence of several factors caused this subgovernment to collapse in the 1970s. It is shown that the scope of the conflict over nuclear power expanded as it became a highly visible and controversial issue that attracted the attention of a broad range of interest groups and government officials. The nuclear power issue became more visible because it was redefined as an environmental issue and then as an issue of public health and safety. It is also shown that the increasing salience of energy issues and the emergence of expert critics played a critical role in socializing the conflict and introducing new actors to the policy arena. It is further shown that changes in the institutions and processes of nuclear policy making help explain the collapse of the atomic subgovernment

  11. International Conference on Land Use / Cover Change Dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Organized by: Beijing Normal University, National Natural Science Foundation of China Hosted by: Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China Topics: 1) Detecting and monitoring LUCC 2) Temporal-spatial characteristics in LUCC 3) Driving model for LUCC 4) Forecasting and modeling LUCC 5) Phenological and biochemical response on LUCC 6) Regional LUCC and microclimate 7) LUCC in the context of global change 8) Impact of global change on the sustainable land-use modeling Abstract submission: The official language of this conference is English. We invite papers written in English and an abstract of less than one page of standard A4 size to the Conference Secretariat by Apr 15, 2001. Registration Fee: 280 US$ (300 US$ after July 15, 2001) Add:No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, 100875, Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China Tel:86-10-62207656 or 62209024 Fax:010-62208178 http:// 202.112.93.50/LUCCD2001/index.html E-mail: Pwang@bnu.edu.cn Cyh@bnu.edu.cn

  12. Smart Kirigami open honeycombs in shape changing actuation and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, R. M.; Scarpa, F.; Leng, J.

    2017-04-01

    Kirigami is the ancient Japanese art of cutting and folding paper, widespread in Asia since the 17th century. Kirigami offers a broader set of geometries and topologies than classical fold/valleys Origami, because of the presence of cuts. Moreover, Kirigami can be readily applied to a large set of composite and smart 2D materials, and can be used to up-scaled productions with modular molding. We describe the manufacturing and testing of a topology of Kirigami cellular structures defined as Open Honeycombs. Open Honeycombs (OHs) can assume fully closed shape and be alike classical hexagonal centresymmetric honeycombs, or can vary their morphology by tuning the opening angle and rotational stiffness of the folds. We show the performance of experimental PEEK OHs with cable actuation and morphing shape characteristics, and the analogous morphing behavior of styrene SMPs under combined mechanical and thermal loading. We also show the dynamic (modal analysis) behavior of OHs configurations parameterized against their geometry characteristics, and the controllable modal density characteristics that one could obtain by tuning the topology and folding properties.

  13. Optimal spectral tracking--adapting to dynamic regime change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brittain, John-Stuart; Halliday, David M

    2011-01-30

    Real world data do not always obey the statistical restraints imposed upon them by sophisticated analysis techniques. In spectral analysis for instance, an ergodic process--the interchangeability of temporal for spatial averaging--is assumed for a repeat-trial design. Many evolutionary scenarios, such as learning and motor consolidation, do not conform to such linear behaviour and should be approached from a more flexible perspective. To this end we previously introduced the method of optimal spectral tracking (OST) in the study of trial-varying parameters. In this extension to our work we modify the OST routines to provide an adaptive implementation capable of reacting to dynamic transitions in the underlying system state. In so doing, we generalise our approach to characterise both slow-varying and rapid fluctuations in time-series, simultaneously providing a metric of system stability. The approach is first applied to a surrogate dataset and compared to both our original non-adaptive solution and spectrogram approaches. The adaptive OST is seen to display fast convergence and desirable statistical properties. All three approaches are then applied to a neurophysiological recording obtained during a study on anaesthetic monitoring. Local field potentials acquired from the posterior hypothalamic region of a deep brain stimulation patient undergoing anaesthesia were analysed. The characterisation of features such as response delay, time-to-peak and modulation brevity are considered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Water–Soil–Vegetation Dynamic Interactions in Changing Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixi Wang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies of land degradation, topsoil erosion, and hydrologic alteration typically focus on these subjects individually, missing important interrelationships among these important aspects of the Earth’s system. However, an understanding of water–soil–vegetation dynamic interactions is needed to develop practical and effective solutions to sustain the globe’s eco-environment and grassland agriculture, which depends on grasses, legumes, and other fodder or soil-building crops. This special issue is intended to be a platform for a discussion of the relevant scientific findings based on experimental and/or modeling studies. Its 12 peer-reviewed articles present data, novel analysis/modeling approaches, and convincing results of water–soil–vegetation interactions under historical and future climates. Two of the articles examine how lake/pond water quality is related to human activity and climate. Overall, these articles can serve as important references for future studies to further advance our understanding of how water, soil, and vegetation interactively affect the health and productivity of the Earth’s ecosystem.

  15. Strategic planning for organizational effectiveness during dynamic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Susan L; Harris, Melodee; McLeskey, Nanci

    2013-01-01

    The leadership of a professional association is charged with developing a strategic plan to operationalize the organization's goals, tactics, and progress. Within the context of its values and goals, a strategic plan steers the organization toward its mission. While there are a variety of models and approaches used in strategic planning, the National Gerontological Nursing Association (NGNA) has historically used goal-based methodology. This method is congruent with the organization's leadership preferences, consistent with the mission-driven culture of the organization, and collaborative in its approach. In 2009 the NGNA Board of Directors initiated a plan for the organization's transformation to a more dynamic and member-driven association through a deliberate process. This article addresses the process used to arrive at the 2010–2011 NGNA strategic initiatives, including a discussion of pertinent data revealed in the 2011 needs assessment survey and NGNA's future initiatives focused on networking, communication, and membership benefits. This process is relevant for all organizations and groups seeking improvement in serving their constituents.

  16. Alternative security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weston, B.H.

    1990-01-01

    This book contains the following chapters: The Military and Alternative Security: New Missions for Stable Conventional Security; Technology and Alternative Security: A Cherished Myth Expires; Law and Alternative Security: Toward a Just World Peace; Politics and Alternative Security: Toward a More Democratic, Therefore More Peaceful, World; Economics and Alternative Security: Toward a Peacekeeping International Economy; Psychology and Alternative Security: Needs, Perceptions, and Misperceptions; Religion and Alternative Security: A Prophetic Vision; and Toward Post-Nuclear Global Security: An Overview

  17. Resilience in Change: Positive Perspectives on the Dynamics of Change in Early Childhood Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglass, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Change is a central feature of the early care and education landscape today. Much of the research on educational change focuses on the negative or challenging aspects of change. This study employed a critical theory framework from the organizational sciences field, positive organizational scholarship, to offer a new way of thinking about change in…

  18. Homeland Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provides an overview of EPA's homeland security roles and responsibilities, and links to specific homeland security issues: water security, research, emergency response, recovery, and waste management.

  19. Smart grids: Another step towards competition, energy security and climate change objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clastres, Cedric

    2011-01-01

    The deployment of smart grids in electricity systems has given rise to much interdisciplinary research. The new technology is seen as an additional instrument available to States to achieve targets for promoting competition, increasing the safety of electricity systems and combating climate change. But the boom in smart grids also raises many economic questions. Public policies will need to be adapted, firstly to make allowance for the potential gains from smart grids and the associated information flow, and secondly to regulate the new networks and act as an incentive for investors. The new competitive offerings and end-user pricing systems will contribute to improving allocative and productive efficiency, while minimizing the risks of market power. With real-time data on output and consumption, generators and consumers will be able to adapt to market conditions. Lastly smart grids will boost the development of renewable energy sources and new technologies, by assisting their integration and optimal use. - Highlights: → Smart grids could promote competition with new offerings and end-user pricing. → New information could induce demand response and demand-side management. → New regulatory policies are needed to favour the deployment of smart grids. → Development of new technologies could be improved.

  20. The Dynamics of Hadley Circulation Variability and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nicholas Alexander

    The Hadley circulation exerts a dominant control on the surface climate of earth's tropical belt. Its converging surface winds fuel the tropical rains, while subsidence in the subtropics dries and stabilizes the atmosphere, creating deserts on land and stratocumulus decks over the oceans. Because of the strong meridional gradients in temperature and precipitation in the subtropics, any shift in the Hadley circulation edge could project as major changes in surface climate. While climate model simulations predict an expansion of the Hadley cells in response to greenhouse gas forcings, the mechanisms remain elusive. An analysis of the climatology, variability, and response of the Hadley circulation to radiative forcings in climate models and reanalyses illuminates the broader landscape in which Hadley cell expansion is realized. The expansion is a fundamental response of the atmosphere to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as it scales with other key climate system changes, including polar amplification, increasing static stability, stratospheric cooling, and increasing global-mean surface temperatures. Multiple measures of the Hadley circulation edge latitudes co-vary with the latitudes of the eddy-driven jets on all timescales, and both exhibit a robust poleward shift in response to forcings. Further, across models there is a robust coupling between the eddy-driving on the Hadley cells and their width. On the other hand, the subtropical jet and tropopause break latitudes, two common observational proxies for the tropical belt edges, lack a strong statistical relationship with the Hadley cell edges and have no coherent response to forcings. This undermines theories for the Hadley cell width predicated on angular momentum conservation and calls for a new framework for understanding Hadley cell expansion. A numerical framework is developed within an idealized general circulation model to isolate the mean flow and eddy responses of the global atmosphere to

  1. Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

    2017-01-01

    As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction. PMID:29165365

  2. Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Ji; Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

    2017-11-22

    As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction.

  3. Leveraging organizational dynamics in buildings to change behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Elizabeth L.

    Buildings may be stationary, but they are not static; they are dynamic and active collectives of agents and actors, and play an important cultural and social role in shaping norms and influencing outcomes in the built environment. This research develops and applies a unique framework that conceptualizes the urban multifamily residential building as an organization, and seeks to use this lens to better understand the role of organizational characteristics in influencing energy efficiency in buildings. This work finds that an organizational analogy is a fruitful approach for understanding buildings, and that buildings in many ways can and do function successfully as organizations. In particular, eight organizational characteristics are explored here that extend well to buildings. These eight organizational characteristics are also explored more deeply to support an argument that some buildings have an organizational advantage that well positions them to undertake energy efficiency initiatives. One organizational characteristic -- the ownership type of the building -- is determined to be particularly important in driving energy outcomes in multifamily buildings in New York City. In particular, it was found that cooperative buildings in the New York City housing market consume less energy citywide than other types of multifamily properties, holding all else equal. Conversely, it was also found that rental buildings tend to consume more energy citywide. Subsequent qualitative case study work in a small Brooklyn cooperative building offers a deeper understanding of organizational decentralization and its role in driving decision-making and outcomes in the building. Additional comparative work in two rental properties -- one high-income and one low-income -- adds additional context and understanding to economic considerations such as the influence of income in overriding centralized efforts to operate the building efficiently. Ultimately, this research develops an analogy

  4. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Anderson, Liana O.; Arai, Egidio; del Bon Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Freitas, Ramon; Morisette, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Intensive mechanized agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon grew by >3.6 million hectares (ha) during 2001–2004. Whether this cropland expansion resulted from intensified use of land previously cleared for cattle ranching or new deforestation has not been quantified and has major implications for future deforestation dynamics, carbon fluxes, forest fragmentation, and other ecosystem services. We combine deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25-ha) clearings as cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since 2001. Statewide, direct conversion of forest to cropland totaled >540,000 ha during 2001–2004, peaking at 23% of 2003 annual deforestation. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of clearings for pasture (mean sizes, 333 and 143 ha, respectively), and conversion occurred rapidly; >90% of clearings for cropland were planted in the first year after deforestation. Area deforested for cropland and mean annual soybean price in the year of forest clearing were directly correlated (R2 = 0.72), suggesting that deforestation rates could return to higher levels seen in 2003–2004 with a rebound of crop prices in international markets. Pasture remains the dominant land use after forest clearing in Mato Grosso, but the growing importance of larger and faster conversion of forest to cropland defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation. PMID:16973742

  5. Estimation of changes in dynamic hydraulic force in a magnetically suspended centrifugal blood pump with transient computational fluid dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuzawa, Toru; Ohta, Akiko; Tanaka, Nobuatu; Qian, Yi; Tsukiya, Tomonori

    2009-01-01

    The effect of the hydraulic force on magnetically levitated (maglev) pumps should be studied carefully to improve the suspension performance and the reliability of the pumps. A maglev centrifugal pump, developed at Ibaraki University, was modeled with 926 376 hexahedral elements for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. The pump has a fully open six-vane impeller with a diameter of 72.5 mm. A self-bearing motor suspends the impeller in the radial direction. The maximum pressure head and flow rate were 250 mmHg and 14 l/min, respectively. First, a steady-state analysis was performed using commercial code STAR-CD to confirm the model's suitability by comparing the results with the real pump performance. Second, transient analysis was performed to estimate the hydraulic force on the levitated impeller. The impeller was rotated in steps of 1 degrees using a sliding mesh. The force around the impeller was integrated at every step. The transient analysis revealed that the direction of the radial force changed dynamically as the vane's position changed relative to the outlet port during one circulation, and the magnitude of this force was about 1 N. The current maglev pump has sufficient performance to counteract this hydraulic force. Transient CFD analysis is not only useful for observing dynamic flow conditions in a centrifugal pump but is also effective for obtaining information about the levitation dynamics of a maglev pump.

  6. The impact of static stress change, dynamic stress change, and the background stress on aftershock focal mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2014-01-01

    The focal mechanisms of earthquakes in Southern California before and after four M ≥ 6.7 main shocks provide insight into how fault systems respond to stress and changes in stress. The main shock static stress changes have two observed impacts on the seismicity: changing the focal mechanisms in a given location to favor those aligned with the static stress change and changing the spatial distribution of seismicity to favor locations where the static stress change aligns with the background stress. The aftershock focal mechanisms are significantly aligned with the static stress changes for absolute stress changes of ≥ 0.02 MPa, for up to ~20 years following the main shock. The dynamic stress changes have similar, although smaller, effects on the local focal mechanisms and the spatial seismicity distribution. Dynamic stress effects are best observed at long periods (30–60 s) and for metrics based on repeated stress cycling in the same direction. This implies that dynamic triggering operates, at least in part, through cyclic shear stress loading in the direction of fault slip. The background stress also strongly controls both the preshock and aftershock mechanisms. While most aftershock mechanisms are well oriented in the background stress field, 10% of aftershocks are identified as poorly oriented outliers, which may indicate limited heterogeneity in the postmain shock stress field. The fault plane orientations of the outliers are well oriented in the background stress, while their slip directions are not, implying that the background stress restricts the distribution of available fault planes.

  7. DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL SAFETY OF THE ENTERPRISE AS A COMPLEX ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE STATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetiana Ganushchak

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to the performance of the evaluation of the financial safety of the enterprise. To achieve the stated aim it has been necessary to solve the following tasks: to use the approaches as to the evaluation of the financial safety of the enterprise, to introduce the analysis system of the financial safety of the enterprise, to consider the structural logical scheme of the analysis procedure of the financial safety of the enterprise, to give the description of the integral indicator of the financial safety of the enterprise; to evaluate and compare companies in the paltry industry according to the level of their financial safety. Methodology. Methodologial basis of the research are the scientific methods, such as : method of logical generalization, dialectical method of recognition of the economic phenomena – to give the definitions of «economic security of the enterprise», «financial security of the enterprise», grouping method, analysis which were used to estimate indicator position of the financial security of the poultry company, graph method which was applied to compare integral estimation of the enterprise;methods of synthesis, deduction, induction, method of the expert estimation to calculate and implement integral marker of the financial security of the poultry company;method of the correlation analysis which was used to identify weight coefficients of the all sided figures of the solvency , business activity, profitability, financial steadiness, pay ability. The priority in methods using was defined by the particular tasks and goals. Results of the research showned into a wide set of the ways of financial enterprise safety as a component of economic security of the state. There is an evaluation of enterprise financial safety on the basis of calculations of integral indicator, including combined indices of profitability (unprofitability, pay ability or the lack of that, business activity (fading, financial

  8. Trivariate Modeling of Interparental Conflict and Adolescent Emotional Security: An Examination of Mother-Father-Child Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Rebecca Y M; Cummings, E Mark; Zhang, Zhiyong; Davies, Patrick T

    2016-11-01

    Recognizing the significance of interacting family subsystems, the present study addresses how interparental conflict is linked to adolescent emotional security as a function of parental gender. A total of 272 families with a child at 12.60 years of age (133 boys, 139 girls) were invited to participate each year for three consecutive years. A multi-informant method was used, along with trivariate models to test the associations among mothers, fathers, and their adolescent children's behaviors. The findings from separate models of destructive and constructive interparental conflict revealed intricate linkages among family members. In the model of destructive interparental conflict, mothers and fathers predicted each other's conflict behaviors over time. Moreover, adolescents' exposure to negativity expressed by either parent dampened their emotional security. Consistent with child effects models, adolescent emotional insecurity predicted fathers' destructive conflict behaviors. As for the model of constructive interparental conflict, fathers predicted mothers' conflict behaviors over time. Adolescents' exposure to fathers' constructive conflict behaviors also enhanced their sense of emotional security. Consistent with child effects models, adolescent emotional security predicted mothers' and fathers' constructive conflict behaviors. These findings extended the family and the adolescent literature by indicating that family processes are multiidirectional, involving multiple dyads in the study of parents' and adolescents' functioning. Contributions of these findings to the understanding of interparental conflict and emotional security in adolescence are discussed.

  9. Tracking Ionic Rearrangements and Interpreting Dynamic Volumetric Changes in Two-Dimensional Metal Carbide Supercapacitors: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Lin, Zifeng; Merlet, Céline; Taberna, Pierre-Louis; Miao, Ling; Jiang, Jianjun; Simon, Patrice

    2017-12-06

    We present a molecular dynamics simulation study achieved on two-dimensional (2D) Ti 3 C 2 T x MXenes in the ionic liquid 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([EMIM] + [TFSI] - ) electrolyte. Our simulations reproduce the different patterns of volumetric change observed experimentally for both the negative and positive electrodes. The analysis of ionic fluxes and structure rearrangements in the 2D material provide an atomic scale insight into the charge and discharge processes in the layer pore and confirm the existence of two different charge-storage mechanisms at the negative and positive electrodes. The ionic number variation and the structure rearrangement contribute to the dynamic volumetric changes of both electrodes: negative electrode expansion and positive electrode contraction. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. "Back to the Future:" The UH-1Y Utility Helicopter; A Multi-Role Solution for a Changing Security Environment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Tres C

    2008-01-01

    .... The transition of upgraded type model series aircraft within the existing force structure coupled with the constraints of a bureaucratic acquisitions process and the security challenges associated...

  11. Dynamics of personality changes in prisoners as a result of the social work with them

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Benkova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the dynamics of personality changes in people serving a prison sentence whereas these changes are as result of the social work performed in prisons. Analyzed are some personality characteristics displayed in the context of emotional intelligence and social empathy in people with delinquent behavior of different age and of different social, educational, psychosomatic and family status.

  12. [Dynamics of hormonal parameters changes in workers affected by noise nuisance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizarev, A V

    2008-01-01

    The dynamics of hormonal parameters changes in workers of noise dangerous occupations was studied over 5 year period. It was shown that with extension of length of service the content of hormones in peripheral blood of patients with sensorineural deafness has not changed significantly.

  13. Securing the Continuity of Medical Competence in Times of Demographic Change: A Proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasebrook, Joachim Paul; Hinkelmann, Jürgen; Volkert, Thomas; Rodde, Sibyll; Hahnenkamp, Klaus

    2016-12-21

    University hospitals make up the backbone of medical and economic services of hospitals in Germany: they qualify specialist physicians, ensure medical research, and provide highly specialized maximum medical care, which other hospitals cannot undertake. In addition to this assignment, medical research and academic teaching must be managed despite a growing shortage of specialist physicians. By the year 2020, the need for the replacement of retired physicians and increased demand will total 30,000 positions. The situation will become more difficult because, on the whole, patients are becoming older and sicker and because specialist physicians are able to find more attractive working conditions in smaller hospitals, abroad, or outside of curative medicine. In order to retain sufficient qualified employees, major improvements in quality are required in terms of working and training conditions. For this purpose, a sustainable innovation process is necessary, which incorporates solutions from outside of the health care sector in order to be able to learn from experiences and mistakes from other industries. The FacharztPlus project aims to find suitable measures in order to retain specialist physicians for more years after the completion of 5 years of professional training. This should determine the suitability of additional qualifications alongside the professional career and an expertise-related work organization oriented to different stages of life. Structured interviews, surveys, and repertory grids are used as preparation for cross-industry expert panels to create future work scenarios for university hospitals. Industries involved are harbor logistics (container terminal), airports, and digitized industrial production ("industry 4.0") because these industries are also facing a shortage of qualified staff and have to respond to rapidly changing demands. Based on the experts' scenarios, consensus groups will be established in each university hospital trying to reach

  14. Leaf Dynamics of Panicum maximum under Future Climatic Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britto de Assis Prado, Carlos Henrique; Haik Guedes de Camargo-Bortolin, Lívia; Castro, Érique; Martinez, Carlos Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Panicum maximum Jacq. 'Mombaça' (C4) was grown in field conditions with sufficient water and nutrients to examine the effects of warming and elevated CO2 concentrations during the winter. Plants were exposed to either the ambient temperature and regular atmospheric CO2 (Control); elevated CO2 (600 ppm, eC); canopy warming (+2°C above regular canopy temperature, eT); or elevated CO2 and canopy warming (eC+eT). The temperatures and CO2 in the field were controlled by temperature free-air controlled enhancement (T-FACE) and mini free-air CO2 enrichment (miniFACE) facilities. The most green, expanding, and expanded leaves and the highest leaf appearance rate (LAR, leaves day(-1)) and leaf elongation rate (LER, cm day(-1)) were observed under eT. Leaf area and leaf biomass were higher in the eT and eC+eT treatments. The higher LER and LAR without significant differences in the number of senescent leaves could explain why tillers had higher foliage area and leaf biomass in the eT treatment. The eC treatment had the lowest LER and the fewest expanded and green leaves, similar to Control. The inhibitory effect of eC on foliage development in winter was indicated by the fewer green, expanded, and expanding leaves under eC+eT than eT. The stimulatory and inhibitory effects of the eT and eC treatments, respectively, on foliage raised and lowered, respectively, the foliar nitrogen concentration. The inhibition of foliage by eC was confirmed by the eC treatment having the lowest leaf/stem biomass ratio and by the change in leaf biomass-area relationships from linear or exponential growth to rectangular hyperbolic growth under eC. Besides, eC+eT had a synergist effect, speeding up leaf maturation. Therefore, with sufficient water and nutrients in winter, the inhibitory effect of elevated CO2 on foliage could be partially offset by elevated temperatures and relatively high P. maximum foliage production could be achieved under future climatic change.

  15. Security Dilemma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wivel, Anders

    2011-01-01

    What is a security dilemma? What are the consequences of security dilemmas in international politics?......What is a security dilemma? What are the consequences of security dilemmas in international politics?...

  16. Gravitational collapse and topology change in spherically symmetric dynamical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Csizmadia, Peter; Racz, Istvan, E-mail: cspeter@rmki.kfki.h, E-mail: iracz@rmki.kfki.h [RMKI H-1121 Budapest, Konkoly Thege Miklos ut 29-33 (Hungary)

    2010-01-07

    A new numerical framework, based on the use of a simple first-order strongly hyperbolic evolution equations, is introduced and tested in the case of four-dimensional spherically symmetric gravitating systems. The analytic setup is chosen such that our numerical method is capable of following the time evolution even after the appearance of trapped surfaces, more importantly, until the true physical singularities are reached. Using this framework, the gravitational collapse of various gravity-matter systems is investigated, with particular attention to the evolution in trapped regions. It is verified that, in advance of the formation of these curvature singularities, trapped regions develop in all cases, thereby supporting the validity of the weak cosmic censor hypothesis of Penrose. Various upper bounds on the rate of blow-up of the Ricci and Kretschmann scalars and the Misner-Sharp mass are provided. In spite of the unboundedness of the Ricci scalar, the Einstein-Hilbert action was found to remain finite in all the investigated cases. In addition, important conceptual issues related to the phenomenon of topology changes are discussed.

  17. Dynamic modeling of temperature change in outdoor operated tubular photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Androga, Dominic Deo; Uyar, Basar; Koku, Harun; Eroglu, Inci

    2017-07-01

    In this study, a one-dimensional transient model was developed to analyze the temperature variation of tubular photobioreactors operated outdoors and the validity of the model was tested by comparing the predictions of the model with the experimental data. The model included the effects of convection and radiative heat exchange on the reactor temperature throughout the day. The temperatures in the reactors increased with increasing solar radiation and air temperatures, and the predicted reactor temperatures corresponded well to the measured experimental values. The heat transferred to the reactor was mainly through radiation: the radiative heat absorbed by the reactor medium, ground radiation, air radiation, and solar (direct and diffuse) radiation, while heat loss was mainly through the heat transfer to the cooling water and forced convection. The amount of heat transferred by reflected radiation and metabolic activities of the bacteria and pump work was negligible. Counter-current cooling was more effective in controlling reactor temperature than co-current cooling. The model developed identifies major heat transfer mechanisms in outdoor operated tubular photobioreactors, and accurately predicts temperature changes in these systems. This is useful in determining cooling duty under transient conditions and scaling up photobioreactors. The photobioreactor design and the thermal modeling were carried out and experimental results obtained for the case study of photofermentative hydrogen production by Rhodobacter capsulatus, but the approach is applicable to photobiological systems that are to be operated under outdoor conditions with significant cooling demands.

  18. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.

    2011-01-01

    a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain......Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....

  19. The Role of Neuromuscular Changes in Aging and Knee Osteoarthritis on Dynamic Postural Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takacs, Judit; Carpenter, Mark G.; Garland, S. Jayne; Hunt, Michael A.

    2013-01-01

    Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic joint condition, with 30% of those over the age of 75 exhibiting severe radiographic disease. Nearly 50% of those with knee OA have experienced a fall in the past year. Falls are a considerable public health concern, with a high risk of serious injury and a significant socioeconomic impact. The ability to defend against a fall relies on adequate dynamic postural control, and alterations in dynamic postural control are seen with normal aging. Neuromuscular changes associated with aging may be responsible for some of these alterations in dynamic postural control. Even greater neuromuscular deficits, which may impact dynamic postural control and the ability to defend against a fall, are seen in people with knee OA. There is little evidence to date on how knee OA affects the ability to respond to and defend against falls and the neuromuscular changes that contribute to balance deficits. As a result, this review will: summarize the key characteristics of postural responses to an external perturbation, highlight the changes in dynamic postural control seen with normal aging, review the neuromuscular changes associated with aging that have known and possible effects on dynamic postural control, and summarize the neuromuscular changes and balance problems in knee OA. Future research to better understand the role of neuromuscular changes in knee OA and their effect on dynamic postural control will be suggested. Such an understanding is critical to the successful creation and implementation of fall prevention and treatment programs, in order to reduce the excessive risk of falling in knee OA. PMID:23696951

  20. Capturing Context-Related Change in Emotional Dynamics via Fixed Moderated Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolf, Janne K; Voelkle, Manuel C; Brose, Annette; Schmiedek, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Much of recent affect research relies on intensive longitudinal studies to assess daily emotional experiences. The resulting data are analyzed with dynamic models to capture regulatory processes involved in emotional functioning. Daily contexts, however, are commonly ignored. This may not only result in biased parameter estimates and wrong conclusions, but also ignores the opportunity to investigate contextual effects on emotional dynamics. With fixed moderated time series analysis, we present an approach that resolves this problem by estimating context-dependent change in dynamic parameters in single-subject time series models. The approach examines parameter changes of known shape and thus addresses the problem of observed intra-individual heterogeneity (e.g., changes in emotional dynamics due to observed changes in daily stress). In comparison to existing approaches to unobserved heterogeneity, model estimation is facilitated and different forms of change can readily be accommodated. We demonstrate the approach's viability given relatively short time series by means of a simulation study. In addition, we present an empirical application, targeting the joint dynamics of affect and stress and how these co-vary with daily events. We discuss potentials and limitations of the approach and close with an outlook on the broader implications for understanding emotional adaption and development.

  1. Effectiveness of Using a Change Management Approach to Convey the Benefits of an Information Security Implementation to Technology Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Jeannine B.

    2012-01-01

    This study addressed the problems associated with users' understanding, accepting, and complying with requirements of security-oriented solutions. The goal of the research was not to dispute existing theory on IT project implementations, but rather to further the knowledge on the topic of technology user acceptance of security-oriented IT…

  2. Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamacher, K.

    2012-09-01

    We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

  3. Functional mental capacity, treatment as usual and time: magnitude of change in secure hospital patients with major mental illness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dornan, Julieanne; Kennedy, Miriam; Garland, Jackie; Rutledge, Emer; Kennedy, Harry G

    2015-10-14

    Decision making ability can change with time, depending on mental or physical health. Little is known about the factors that determine this change and the relationship of capacity to time. As a pilot for studies using functional mental capacities as an outcome measure, we sought to quantify this relationship measuring change over time using competence assessment tools, and rating scales for symptoms and global function. We assessed 37 inpatients in a secure psychiatric hospital. All patients met the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders-fourth edition and International classification of diseases, 10th edition criteria for an Axis 1 mental illness, all with psychosis. Patients were interviewed twice a mean of 323 days apart (median 176 days range 17-1221 days). The MacArthur competence assessment tools for consent to treatment (MacCAT-T) and fitness to plead (MacCAT-FP) were used to quantify functional capacity along with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and global assessment of function (GAF) scale. A comparison was also made between those patients prescribed clozapine in comparison to other antipsychotics. The number judged by treating psychiatrists to lack capacity either to make a treatment choice or to plead in court fell from 35 to 8%. Change was greatest for those admitted within the previous 9 months. The measures of capacity improved between time 1 and time 2 for both consent to treatment and fitness to plead. The measures of capacity improved with positive symptoms within the PANSS and with GAF scores. Those with shorter lengths of stay at baseline had the greatest improvements in the MacCAT-FP scores. Effect sizes were medium or large (0.3-0.7+). As expected, patients prescribed clozapine had larger changes in functional mental capacities and larger effect sizes than those prescribed other psychotropics. The results show a strong relationship between the clinicians' assessment of capacity and structured rating scales. We

  4. A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

    2011-01-01

    A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. - Research highlights: → Plant community changes can be used to estimate critical loads of nitrogen. → Climate change is decisive for future changes of geochemistry and plant communities. → Climate change cannot be ignored in estimates of critical loads. → The model ForSAFE-Veg was successfully used to set critical loads of nitrogen. - Plant community composition can be used in dynamic modelling to estimate critical loads of nitrogen deposition, provided the appropriate reference deposition, future climate and target plant communities are defined.

  5. Società sicure e mutamento sociale: possibili sfide per il futuro/Secure societies and social changes: possible challenges in the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sette Raffaella

    2014-06-01

    érents territoires ; les phénomènes d’immigration et du vieillissement de la population ; les questions relatives à la justice, notamment la réinsertion sociale des détenus. Enfin, l’auteur propose certaines interventions pour développer de nouvelles formes de dialogue local et de solidarité dans le but de reconnaître la pluralité des identités culturelles. The aim of this article is to focus on possible intervention strategies in the domain of urban security. It starts by the impact of social changes on urban space which is closely related to urban security. This is one of the key topics of the European Union policies and research from today to 2020. The author analyses some of the most important factors playing at present a major role in the dynamics of security/insecurity, particularly: the global economic crisis, producing a large series of changes not only in economic structures of contemporary societies, but also in political, social and cultural ones; mafia organised crime’s infiltration in socio-economic structure of various territories; the phenomena of immigration and population ageing; justice issues, in particular the social reintegration of prison inmates. Finally, the author proposes some kinds of interventions in order to develop forms of territorial interaction and solidarity with the aim to recognise the plurality of cultural and personal identities.

  6. Database Security: A Historical Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Lesov, Paul

    2010-01-01

    The importance of security in database research has greatly increased over the years as most of critical functionality of the business and military enterprises became digitized. Database is an integral part of any information system and they often hold sensitive data. The security of the data depends on physical security, OS security and DBMS security. Database security can be compromised by obtaining sensitive data, changing data or degrading availability of the database. Over the last 30 ye...

  7. Vortex, ULF wave and Aurora Observation after Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Here we will summarize our recent study and show some new results on the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere Response to Dynamic Pressure Change/disturbances in the Solar Wind and foreshock regions. We study the step function type solar wind dynamic pressure change (increase/decrease) interaction with the magnetosphere using THEMIS satellites at both dayside and nightside in different geocentric distances. Vortices generated by the dynamic pressure change passing along the magnetopause are found and compared with model predictions. ULF waves and vortices are excited in the dayside and nightside plasma sheet when dynamic pressure change hit the magnetotail. The related ionospheric responses, such as aurora and TCVs, are also investigated. We compare Global MHD simulations with the observations. We will also show some new results that dayside magnetospheric FLRs might be caused by foreshock structures.Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2013), THEMIS observations of ULF wave excitation in the nightside plasma sheet during sudden impulse events, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 118, doi:10.1029/2012JA017984. Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2014), Solar wind pressure pulse-driven magnetospheric vortices and their global consequences, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JA019551. Tian, A.M. et al.(2016), Dayside magnetospheric and ionospheric responses to solar wind pressure increase: Multispacecraft and ground observations, J. Geophys. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JA022459. Shen, X.C. et al.(2015), Magnetospheric ULF waves with increasing amplitude related to solar wind dynamic pressure changes: THEMIS observations, J. Geophys. Res., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JA020913Zhao, H. Y. et al. (2016), Magnetospheric vortices and their global effect after a solar wind dynamic pressure decrease, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JA021646. Shen, X. C., et al. (2017), Dayside magnetospheric ULF wave frequency modulated by a solar wind dynamic pressure negative impulse, J. Geophys. Res

  8. Dynamic Predictions of Crop Yield and Irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa Due to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster-Wittig, T.

    2012-12-01

    The highest damages from climate change are predicted to be in the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculture is predicted to be especially vulnerable in this region because of its current state of high temperature and low precipitation and because it is usually rain-fed or relies on relatively basic technologies which therefore limit its ability to sustain in increased poor climatic conditions [1]. The goal of this research is to quantify the vulnerability of this ecosystem by projecting future changes in agriculture due to IPCC predicted climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature. This research will provide a better understanding of the relationship between precipitation and rain-fed agriculture in savannas. In order to quantify the effects of climate change on agriculture, the impacts of climate change are modeled through the use of a land surface vegetation dynamics model previously developed combined with a crop model [2,4]. In this project, it will be used to model yield for point cropland locations within sub-Saharan Africa between Kenya and Botswana with a range of annual rainfall. With this model, future projections are developed for what can be anticipated for the crop yield based on two precipitation climate change scenarios; (1) decreased depth and (2) decreased frequency as well as temperature change scenarios; (3) only temperature increased, (4) temperature increase dand decreased precipitation depth, and (5) temperature increased and decreased precipitation frequency. Therefore, this will allow conclusions to be drawn about how mean precipitation and a changing climate effect food security in sub-Saharan Africa. As an additional analysis, irrigation is added to the model as it is thought to be the solution to protect food security by maximizing on the potential of food production. In water-limited areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, it is important to consider water efficient irrigation techniques such as demand-based micro

  9. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Uiterkamp, A.J.M. Schoot

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand. This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days. (author)

  10. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jawad Taleb Al-Bakri

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of climate change and land use change on water resources and food security in Jordan. The country is dominated by arid climate with limited arable land and water resources, where the per capita share of water is less than 145 m3/year. The study focused on crop production and water resources under trends of anticipated climate change and population growth in the country. Remote sensing data were used to determine land use/cover changes and rates of urbanization, which took place at the cost of the cultivable land. Recession of irrigated areas led to lesser food production and food security. Outputs from crop production and water requirements models, in addition to regression analysis, were used to estimate the projected increase in agricultural water demand under the scenarios of increased air temperature and reduced rainfall by the years 2030 and 2050. Results indicated that problems of water scarcity and food insecurity would be exacerbated by climate change and increased population growth. To move from the tragedy of the commons towards transcendence, the study emphasized the need for adaptive measures to reduce the impacts of climate change on water resources and food security. The challenge, however, would remain the development and the efficient use of new water resources as a means for future sustainable development.

  11. [Application of optical flow dynamic texture in land use/cover change detection].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Li; Gong, Yi-Long; Zhang, Yi; Duan, Wei

    2014-11-01

    In the present study, a novel change detection approach for high resolution remote sensing images is proposed based on the optical flow dynamic texture (OFDT), which could achieve the land use & land cover change information automatically with a dynamic description of ground-object changes. This paper describes the ground-object gradual change process from the principle using optical flow theory, which breaks the ground-object sudden change hypothesis in remote sensing change detection methods in the past. As the steps of this method are simple, it could be integrated in the systems and software such as Land Resource Management and Urban Planning software that needs to find ground-object changes. This method takes into account the temporal dimension feature between remote sensing images, which provides a richer set of information for remote sensing change detection, thereby improving the status that most of the change detection methods are mainly dependent on the spatial dimension information. In this article, optical flow dynamic texture is the basic reflection of changes, and it is used in high resolution remote sensing image support vector machine post-classification change detection, combined with spectral information. The texture in the temporal dimension which is considered in this article has a smaller amount of data than most of the textures in the spatial dimensions. The highly automated texture computing has only one parameter to set, which could relax the onerous manual evaluation present status. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated with the 2011 and 2012 QuickBird datasets covering Duerbert Mongolian Autonomous County of Daqing City, China. Then, the effects of different optical flow smooth coefficient and the impact on the description of the ground-object changes in the method are deeply analyzed: The experiment result is satisfactory, with an 87.29% overall accuracy and an 0.850 7 Kappa index, and the method achieves better

  12. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2018-01-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  13. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-11-01

    Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased

  14. Late Miocene Pacific plate kinematic change explained with coupled global models of mantle and lithosphere dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stotz, Ingo Leonardo; Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Davies, DR

    2017-01-01

    and the consequent subduction polarity reversal. The uncertainties associated with the timing of this event, however, make it difficult to quantitatively demonstrate a dynamical association. Here, we first reconstruct the Pacific plate's absolute motion since the mid-Miocene (15 Ma), at high-temporal resolution....../lithosphere system to test hypotheses on the dynamics driving this change. These indicate that the arrival of the OJP at the Melanesian arc, between 10 and 5 Ma, followed by a subduction polarity reversal that marked the initiation of subduction of the Australian plate underneath the Pacific realm, were the key...... drivers of this kinematic change....

  15. Mapping the concentration changes during the dynamic processes of crevice corrosion by digital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HENGLEI JIA

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic process of crevice corrosion during anodic dissolution of a crevice electrode in a 5.0 mmol dm-3 NaCl solution has been studied by digital holographic reconstruction. Digital holographic reconstruction has been proved to be an effective and in situ technique to detect the changes in the solution concentration because useful and direct information can be obtained from the three-dimensional images. It provides a valuable method for a better understanding of the mechanism of crevice corrosion by studying the dynamic processes of changes in the solution concentration at the interface of crevice corrosion.

  16. Modeling effects of environmental change on wolf population dynamics, trait evolution, and life history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Tim; MacNulty, Daniel R; Stahler, Daniel R; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Wayne, Robert K; Smith, Douglas W

    2011-12-02

    Environmental change has been observed to generate simultaneous responses in population dynamics, life history, gene frequencies, and morphology in a number of species. But how common are such eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change likely to be? Are they inevitable, or do they require a specific type of change? Can we accurately predict eco-evolutionary responses? We address these questions using theory and data from the study of Yellowstone wolves. We show that environmental change is expected to generate eco-evolutionary change, that changes in the average environment will affect wolves to a greater extent than changes in how variable it is, and that accurate prediction of the consequences of environmental change will probably prove elusive.

  17. Dynamics of births and juvenile recruitment in Mara-Serengeti ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Dublin, Holly T.; Bhola, Nina; Reid, Robin S.

    Natality and recruitment govern animal population dynamics, but their responses to fluctuating resources, competition, predation, shifting habitat conditions, density feedback and diseases are poorly understood. To understand the influences of climatic and land use changes on population dynamics, we

  18. A Comparison Between a Dynamic and Static Approach to Asset Management Using CAPM Models on the Australian Securities Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionigi Gerace

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the capital asset pricing model being one of the most influential mod¬els in modern portfolio theory, it has also been a victim of criticism in numerous academic papers. Its assumptions which seem to be rather unre¬alistic, have caused many academics to improve the model by relaxing some of its restrictive statements. In this journal article, we compare the performance of an optimal portfolio of securities in the Australian securities market by constructing two theoretical portfolios; one using the capital asset pricing model which uses a single beta throughout a static investment horizon; and another, which allows the op¬timal portfolio to be rebalanced each week with an adjusted beta. The performance of the two theoretical portfolios is compared to determine the superior model. Overall, findings showed that due to rebalancing of the portfolio, the multiple period model was the superior model based on before and after transaction cost returns.

  19. Change detection in the dynamics of an intracellular protein synthesis model using nonlinear Kalman filtering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, Gerasimos G; Rigatou, Efthymia G; Djida, Jean Daniel

    2015-10-01

    A method for early diagnosis of parametric changes in intracellular protein synthesis models (e.g. the p53 protein - mdm2 inhibitor model) is developed with the use of a nonlinear Kalman Filtering approach (Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter) and of statistical change detection methods. The intracellular protein synthesis dynamic model is described by a set of coupled nonlinear differential equations. It is shown that such a dynamical system satisfies differential flatness properties and this allows to transform it, through a change of variables (diffeomorphism), to the so-called linear canonical form. For the linearized equivalent of the dynamical system, state estimation can be performed using the Kalman Filter recursion. Moreover, by applying an inverse transformation based on the previous diffeomorphism it becomes also possible to obtain estimates of the state variables of the initial nonlinear model. By comparing the output of the Kalman Filter (which is assumed to correspond to the undistorted dynamical model) with measurements obtained from the monitored protein synthesis system, a sequence of differences (residuals) is obtained. The statistical processing of the residuals with the use of x2 change detection tests, can provide indication within specific confidence intervals about parametric changes in the considered biological system and consequently indications about the appearance of specific diseases (e.g. malignancies).

  20. Political-Security, Economy, and Culture within the Dynamics of Geopolitics and Migration: On Philippine Territory and the Filipino People

    OpenAIRE

    John X. LAMBINO

    2015-01-01

    The paper considers the interaction of the dual elements of the nation-state: territory and people. Particularly, it discusses the interaction of geopolitics and migration, i.e. the non-mobile territory and the mobile people, from the perspectives of political-security, economy, and culture, and how the interactions influence government policy focusing on the case of the Philippines.The paper ferrets-out the major factors in the geopolitical transformation of the Philippine Is-lands into the ...

  1. Changes in discharge dynamics under the constraints of local and global changes in the Chao Lake basin (China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Y.; Salles, C.; Rodier, C.; Crès, F.-N.; Huang, L.; Tournoud, M.-G.

    2012-04-01

    Located on the Yangtze basin, the Chao Lake is the fifth largest freshwater lake in China and of great importance in terms of water resources and aquaculture. Its catchment (9130 km2) includes the city of Hefei and large extends of agricultural and rural areas. Fast changes are expected in land uses and agricultural practices for the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. The consequences of these changes on the sustainability of the water inflows into the lake are a major issue for the economical development of the Chao Lake area even though they are little-known. Our study aims to give tools for estimating such consequences, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and model parameters. The dynamics of rivers flowing into the Chao Lake is not very well-known, except for the Fengle River. The Fengle catchment (1480 km2) is mainly rural. River discharges are recorded at Taoxi station, upstream its outlet into the lake. 20-year records of daily discharges are available. Nine rain gauges, with daily data, daily temperature and evapotranspiration data are also available. The current dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized in terms of flood frequencies on discharge-duration-frequency curves. The ATHYS freely available hydrological tool (www.athys-soft.org) is used to calibrate and validate a distributed model of the Fengle catchment. Four calibration runs are done on four independent 5-year discharge records. Four different sets of model parameters are discussed. The model is then run for validation. The uncertainties in model predictions are evaluated in terms of errors in the simulated discharges during the validation period, with regards to the 5-year period used for calibration. The model is then applied on scenarios of changes in land uses and climate. Uncertainties in scenarios of changes are estimated

  2. Iran's Relations to the East: Nonproliferation and Regional Security in a Changing Southwest Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tehsin, Muhammad [Quaid-I-Azam Univ., Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2014-11-01

    This study attempts to answer the following questions: would a successful JPOA result in nuclear nonproliferation and regional security in Southwest Asia; and could the Middle East and South Asia work together to contain the threat of Salafi jihadism?

  3. The dynamics of belief in climate change and its risks in business organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleda, Mercedes; Shackley, Simon

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a simulation model of the formation of the belief in climate change of a business organisation using a systems dynamics approach. Understanding how businesses form their belief on the issue of climate change is of paramount importance given the key role of beliefs and cognitive characteristics in the triggering and shaping of organisational adaptation processes. The main assumption of the model is that the dynamics of belief is driven by the perceived actual and potential changes in competitiveness as a consequence of climate impacts rather than by the growth of an ecological 'business conscience'. The model has been built using the STELLA software program, and it is based upon theoretical hypotheses drawn from behavioural studies of organisations and evolutionary theories of economic change. (author)

  4. A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

    2018-05-01

    The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for

  5. Does Climate Change Mitigation Activity Affect Crude Oil Prices? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dike, Jude C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates how climate change mitigation affects crude oil prices while using carbon intensity as the indicator for climate change mitigation. The relationship between crude oil prices and carbon intensity is estimated using an Arellano and Bond GMM dynamic panel model. This study undertakes a regional-level analysis because of the geographical similarities among the countries in a region. Regions considered for the study are Africa, Asia and Oceania, Central and Sout...

  6. Information security management handbook

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    The Information Security Management Handbook continues its tradition of consistently communicating the fundamental concepts of security needed to be a true CISSP. In response to new developments, Volume 4 supplements the previous volumes with new information covering topics such as wireless, HIPAA, the latest hacker attacks and defenses, intrusion detection, and provides expanded coverage on security management issues and applications security. Even those that don't plan on sitting for the CISSP exam will find that this handbook is a great information security reference.The changes in the tech

  7. Security Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Patta, Joe

    2003-01-01

    Examines how to evaluate school security, begin making schools safe, secure schools without turning them into fortresses, and secure schools easily and affordably; the evolution of security systems into information technology systems; using schools' high-speed network lines; how one specific security system was developed; pros and cons of the…

  8. Mechanical Spectroscopy: Some Applications On Structural Changes And Relaxation Dynamics In Soft Matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Xuebang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The general trend in soft matter is to study systems of increasing complexity covering a wide range in time and frequency. Mechanical spectroscopy is a powerful tool for understanding the structure and relaxation dynamics of these materials over a large temperature range and frequency scale. In this work, we collect a few recent applications using low-frequency mechanical spectroscopy for elucidating the structural changes and relaxation dynamics in soft matter, largely based on the author’s group. We illustrate the potential of mechanical spectroscopy with three kinds of soft materials: colloids, polymers and granular systems. Examples include structural changes in colloids, segmental relaxations in amorphous polymers, and resonant dissipation of grain chains in three-dimensional media. The present work shows that mechanical spectroscopy has been applied as a necessary and complementary tool to study the dynamics of such complex systems.

  9. Holographic control of information and dynamical topology change for composite open quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aref'eva, I. Ya.; Volovich, I. V.; Inozemcev, O. V.

    2017-12-01

    We analyze how the compositeness of a system affects the characteristic time of equilibration. We study the dynamics of open composite quantum systems strongly coupled to the environment after a quantum perturbation accompanied by nonequilibrium heating. We use a holographic description of the evolution of entanglement entropy. The nonsmooth character of the evolution with holographic entanglement is a general feature of composite systems, which demonstrate a dynamical change of topology in the bulk space and a jumplike velocity change of entanglement entropy propagation. Moreover, the number of jumps depends on the system configuration and especially on the number of composite parts. The evolution of the mutual information of two composite systems inherits these jumps. We present a detailed study of the mutual information for two subsystems with one of them being bipartite. We find five qualitatively different types of behavior of the mutual information dynamics and indicate the corresponding regions of the system parameters.

  10. Changes in cytoskeletal dynamics and nonlinear rheology with metastatic ability in cancer cell lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coughlin, Mark F; Fredberg, Jeffrey J

    2013-01-01

    Metastatic outcome is impacted by the biophysical state of the primary tumor cell. To determine if changes in cancer cell biophysical properties facilitate metastasis, we quantified cytoskeletal biophysics in well-characterized human skin, bladder, prostate and kidney cell line pairs that differ in metastatic ability. Using magnetic twisting cytometry with optical detection, cytoskeletal dynamics was observed through spontaneous motion of surface bound marker beads and nonlinear rheology was characterized through large amplitude forced oscillations of probe beads. Measurements of cytoskeletal dynamics and nonlinear rheology differed between strongly and weakly metastatic cells. However, no set of biophysical parameters changed systematically with metastatic ability across all cell lines. Compared to their weakly metastatic counterparts, the strongly metastatic kidney cancer cells exhibited both increased cytoskeletal dynamics and stiffness at large deformation which are thought to facilitate the process of vascular invasion. (paper)

  11. Detecting dynamical changes in time series by using the Jensen Shannon divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, D. M.; Riveaud, L. E.; Lamberti, P. W.

    2017-08-01

    Most of the time series in nature are a mixture of signals with deterministic and random dynamics. Thus the distinction between these two characteristics becomes important. Distinguishing between chaotic and aleatory signals is difficult because they have a common wide band power spectrum, a delta like autocorrelation function, and share other features as well. In general, signals are presented as continuous records and require to be discretized for being analyzed. In this work, we introduce different schemes for discretizing and for detecting dynamical changes in time series. One of the main motivations is to detect transitions between the chaotic and random regime. The tools here used here originate from the Information Theory. The schemes proposed are applied to simulated and real life signals, showing in all cases a high proficiency for detecting changes in the dynamics of the associated time series.

  12. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shepherd, T.G.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop's University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database

  13. The role of large-scale, extratropical dynamics in climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, T.G. [ed.

    1994-02-01

    The climate modeling community has focused recently on improving our understanding of certain processes, such as cloud feedbacks and ocean circulation, that are deemed critical to climate-change prediction. Although attention to such processes is warranted, emphasis on these areas has diminished a general appreciation of the role played by the large-scale dynamics of the extratropical atmosphere. Lack of interest in extratropical dynamics may reflect the assumption that these dynamical processes are a non-problem as far as climate modeling is concerned, since general circulation models (GCMs) calculate motions on this scale from first principles. Nevertheless, serious shortcomings in our ability to understand and simulate large-scale dynamics exist. Partly due to a paucity of standard GCM diagnostic calculations of large-scale motions and their transports of heat, momentum, potential vorticity, and moisture, a comprehensive understanding of the role of large-scale dynamics in GCM climate simulations has not been developed. Uncertainties remain in our understanding and simulation of large-scale extratropical dynamics and their interaction with other climatic processes, such as cloud feedbacks, large-scale ocean circulation, moist convection, air-sea interaction and land-surface processes. To address some of these issues, the 17th Stanstead Seminar was convened at Bishop`s University in Lennoxville, Quebec. The purpose of the Seminar was to promote discussion of the role of large-scale extratropical dynamics in global climate change. Abstracts of the talks are included in this volume. On the basis of these talks, several key issues emerged concerning large-scale extratropical dynamics and their climatic role. Individual records are indexed separately for the database.

  14. Supporting dynamic change detection: using the right tool for the task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallières, Benoît R; Hodgetts, Helen M; Vachon, François; Tremblay, Sébastien

    2016-01-01

    Detecting task-relevant changes in a visual scene is necessary for successfully monitoring and managing dynamic command and control situations. Change blindness-the failure to notice visual changes-is an important source of human error. Change History EXplicit (CHEX) is a tool developed to aid change detection and maintain situation awareness; and in the current study we test the generality of its ability to facilitate the detection of changes when this subtask is embedded within a broader dynamic decision-making task. A multitasking air-warfare simulation required participants to perform radar-based subtasks, for which change detection was a necessary aspect of the higher-order goal of protecting one's own ship. In this task, however, CHEX rendered the operator even more vulnerable to attentional failures in change detection and increased perceived workload. Such support was only effective when participants performed a change detection task without concurrent subtasks. Results are interpreted in terms of the NSEEV model of attention behavior (Steelman, McCarley, & Wickens, Hum. Factors 53:142-153, 2011; J. Exp. Psychol. Appl. 19:403-419, 2013), and suggest that decision aids for use in multitasking contexts must be designed to fit within the available workload capacity of the user so that they may truly augment cognition.

  15. Dynamic changes of plasma acylcarnitine levels induced by fasting and sunflower oil challenge test in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa, C. C.; de Almeida, I. T.; Jakobs, C.; Poll-The, B. T.; Duran, M.

    1999-01-01

    The dynamic changes of plasma acylcarnitine levels in 1- to 7-y-old children during fasting and after the ingestion of sunflower oil were studied. Glucose, 3-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, FFA, and individual plasma acylcarnitine levels were monitored in both conditions. Fasting experiments lasted

  16. Changes in dynamics processes of the muscles’ traction under influence of stress-factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Nozdrenko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Change of fibers’ dynamic parameters of the frog Rana temporaria skeletal muscle m. tibialis traction under influence of modulated stimulation and aluminium chloride solutions was studied. At 10-4,5·10-4 and 10‑3 M·l-1 concentrations of aluminium chloride the nonlinear decrease of the muscle fibers’ traction parameters was observed.

  17. Dynamics of Context-Dependent Recall: An Examination of Internal and External Context Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Nash; Spillers, Gregory J.; Brewer, Gene A.

    2012-01-01

    Retrieval dynamics in context-dependent recall were explored via manipulations of external and internal context in two experiments. Participants were tested in either the same or different context as the material was learned in and correct recalls, errors, and recall latency measures were examined. In both experiments changes in context resulted…

  18. Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Shea

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change, Glacier Response, and Vegetation Dynamics in the Himalaya: Contributions Toward Future Earth Initiatives. Edited by R. B. Singh, Udo Schickhoff, and Suraj Mal. Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2016. xvi + 399 pp. Hardcover: US$ 179.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28975-5. E-book: US$ 139.00, ISBN 978-3-319-28977-9.

  19. The Interactions between Problem Solving and Conceptual Change: System Dynamic Modelling as a Platform for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chwee Beng

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the interactions between problem solving and conceptual change in an elementary science class where students build system dynamic models as a form of problem representations. Through mostly qualitative findings, we illustrate the interplay of three emerging intervening conditions (epistemological belief, structural knowledge…

  20. Managing of the baking bread process based on mathematical model of change crust color dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Bitjukov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article a support system of making decision about control of baking process of bread on the basis of estimating the quality ( the colors of the product surface and the mathematical model of the dynamics of change in this indicator is offered.