WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing hydrologic conditions

  1. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  2. Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Verdecchia, Marco; Giorgi, Filippo; Colaiuda, Valentina; Tomassetti, Barbara; Lombardi, Annalina

    2014-09-15

    The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  4. Optimizing Use of Water Management Systems during Changes of Hydrological Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Výleta, Roman; Škrinár, Andrej; Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter

    2017-10-01

    When designing the water management systems and their components, there is a need of more detail research on hydrological conditions of the river basin, runoff of which creates the main source of water in the reservoir. Over the lifetime of the water management systems the hydrological time series are never repeated in the same form which served as the input for the design of the system components. The design assumes the observed time series to be representative at the time of the system use. However, it is rather unrealistic assumption, because the hydrological past will not be exactly repeated over the design lifetime. When designing the water management systems, the specialists may occasionally face the insufficient or oversized capacity design, possibly wrong specification of the management rules which may lead to their non-optimal use. It is therefore necessary to establish a comprehensive approach to simulate the fluctuations in the interannual runoff (taking into account the current dry and wet periods) in the form of stochastic modelling techniques in water management practice. The paper deals with the methodological procedure of modelling the mean monthly flows using the stochastic Thomas-Fiering model, while modification of this model by Wilson-Hilferty transformation of independent random number has been applied. This transformation usually applies in the event of significant asymmetry in the observed time series. The methodological procedure was applied on the data acquired at the gauging station of Horné Orešany in the Parná Stream. Observed mean monthly flows for the period of 1.11.1980 - 31.10.2012 served as the model input information. After extrapolation the model parameters and Wilson-Hilferty transformation parameters the synthetic time series of mean monthly flows were simulated. Those have been compared with the observed hydrological time series using basic statistical characteristics (e. g. mean, standard deviation and skewness) for testing

  5. Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiticar, M. J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N. [Northern Forestry Centre, St Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2013-07-15

    Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH{sub 4} production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

  6. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  7. Hydrological Responses of Weather Conditions and Crop Change of Agricultural Area in the Rincon Valley, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, S.; Sheng, Z.; Abudu, S.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic cycle of agricultural area has been changing due to the impacts of climate and land use changes (crop coverage changes) in an arid region of Rincon Valley, New Mexico. This study is to evaluate the impacts of weather condition and crop coverage change on hydrologic behavior of agricultural area in Rincon Valley (2,466km2) for agricultural watershed management using a watershed-scale hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT model was developed to incorporate irrigation of different crops using auto irrigation function. For the weather condition and crop coverage change evaluation, three spatial crop coverages including a normal (2008), wet (2009), and dry (2011) years were prepared using USDA crop data layer (CDL) for fourteen different crops. The SWAT model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2003 and validated for the period of 2004-2006 using daily-observed streamflow data. Scenario analysis was performed for wet and dry years based on the unique combinations of crop coverages and releases from Caballo Reservoir. The SWAT model simulated the present vertical water budget and horizontal water transfer considering irrigation practices in the Rincon Valley. Simulation results indicated the temporal and spatial variability for irrigation and non-irrigation seasons of hydrologic cycle in agricultural area in terms of surface runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, percolation, baseflow, soil moisture, and groundwater recharge. The water supply of the dry year could not fully cover whole irrigation period due to dry weather conditions, resulting in reduction of crop acreage. For extreme weather conditions, the temporal variation of water budget became robust, which requires careful irrigation management of the agricultural area. The results could provide guidelines for farmers to decide crop patterns in response to different weather conditions and water availability.

  8. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

  9. Assessing River Low-Flow Uncertainties Related to Hydrological Model Calibration and Structure under Climate Change Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Trudel

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.

  10. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  11. Differentiated spring behavior under changing hydrological conditions in an alpine karst aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippini, Maria; Squarzoni, Gabriela; De Waele, Jo; Fiorucci, Adriano; Vigna, Bartolomeo; Grillo, Barbara; Riva, Alberto; Rossetti, Stefano; Zini, Luca; Casagrande, Giacomo; Stumpp, Christine; Gargini, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    Limestone massifs with a high density of dolines form important karst aquifers in most of the Alps, often with groundwater circulating through deep karst conduits and water coming out of closely spaced springs with flow rates of over some cubic meters per second. Although several hydrogeological studies and tracing experiments were carried out in many of these carbonate mountains in the past, the hydrogeology of most of these karst aquifers is still poorly known. Geological, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical investigations have been carried out in one of the most representative of these areas (Cansiglio-Monte Cavallo, NE Italy) since spring 2015, in order to enhance the knowledge on this important type of aquifer system. Additionally, a cave-to-spring multitracer test was carried out in late spring 2016 by using three different fluorescent tracers. This hydrogeological study allowed: 1) gathering new detailed information on the geological and tectonic structure of such alpine karst plateau; 2) defining discharge rates of the three main springs (Gorgazzo, Santissima, and Molinetto) by constructing rating curves; 3) understanding the discharging behavior of the system with respect to different recharge conditions; 4) better defining the recharge areas of the three springs. The three nearby springs (the spring front stretches over 5 km), that drain the investigated karst aquifer system, show different behaviors with respect to changing discharge conditions, demonstrating this aquifer to be divided in partially independent drainage systems under low-flow conditions, when their chemistry is clearly differentiated. Under high-flow conditions, waters discharging at all springs show more similar geochemical characteristics. The combination of geochemistry, hydrodynamic monitoring and dye tracing tests has shown that the three springs have different recharge areas. The study points out that even closely spaced karst springs, that apparently drain the same karst mountain, can

  12. The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

    2017-04-01

    Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

  13. Hydrology for a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    To support critical decisions related to water quantity, quality, and hazard mitigation, surface water hydrologists and water resources engineers have historically invoked the assumption that hydrologic systems are stationary; variables such as discharge or solute fluxes were assumed to have a mean, a variance, and other statistical properties that did not change over time. Today, the drivers of non-stationarity such as urbanization, groundwater depletion, engineered land-drainage systems, application of nutrients at the land surface, new farming technologies, and changes in greenhouse gas forcing of the global atmosphere have perturbed hydrologic systems enough so that this assumption must be challenged. Understanding of the non-stationarity in hydrologic systems is important for at least two major reasons: (1) Society needs insights on the hydrologic conditions of the future as a basis for planning, operating, and regulating water resources in the future. Water resources engineers cannot depend solely on records of the past to design and operate in the future. However, simply substituting model projections for historic records, without evaluation of the ability of those models to produce realistic projections, is not acceptable. (2) Non-stationarity provides a framework to identify emerging water resource issues and evaluate our society's success in achieving its environmental goals. The study of hydrologic change is our greatest challenge. We must learn how best to blend our knowledge of the past with our projections of the future. In this non-stationary world, observing systems and networks become even more critically important and our models must be tested using historical records to ensure that they produce useful projections of our future. In the words of Ralph Keeling, "The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking the changes decade after decade, and poring over the records." Walter Langbein knew the

  14. The need of the change of the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes under extreme conditions – taking reference evapotranspiration as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available What a hydrological model displays is the relationships between the output and input in daily, monthly, yearly and other temporal scales. In the case of climate change or other environment changes, the input of the hydrological model may show a gradual or abrupt change. There have been numerous documented studies to explore the response of output of the hydrological models to the change of the input with scenario simulation. Most of the studies assumed that the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes will remain, which may be true for the gradual change of the input. However, under extreme conditions the conceptualisation of hydrologic processes may be completely changed. Taking an example of the Allen's formula to calculate crop reference evapotranspiration (ET0 as a simple hydrological model, we analyze the alternation of the extreme in ET0 from 1955 to 2012 at the Chongling Experimental Station located in Hebei Province, China. The relationships between ET0 and the meteorological factors for the average values, minimum (maximum values at daily, monthly and annual scales are revealed. It is found the extreme of the output can follow the extreme of the input better when their relationship is more linear. For non-liner relationship, the extreme of the input cannot at all be reflected from the extreme of the output. Relatively, extreme event at daily scale is harder to be shown than that at monthly scale. The result implicates that a routine model may not be able to catch the response to extreme events and it is even more so as we extrapolate models to higher temperature/CO2 conditions in the future. Some possible choices for the improvements are suggested for predicting hydrological extremes.

  15. Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  16. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  17. Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streletskiy, Dmitry A; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I; Nyland, Kelsey E; Tananaev, Nikita I; Opel, Thomas; Streletskaya, Irina D; Tokarev, Igor’; Shiklomanov, Alexandr I

    2015-01-01

    Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months. (letter)

  18. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  19. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-08-01

    Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. CHANGES OF WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS OF MIDFOREST POND IN A HYDROLOGICAL YEARS OF A DIFFERENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION COURSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariusz Korytowski

    2014-10-01

    years. Evaporation from pond surface which was from 408 mm (2009/2010 to 835 mm (2002/2003 was the dominant factor of outgoing part of water balance. Outflow from the pond to neighboring areas had significant participation – about 44% of precipitation, in water balance in wet 2009/2010 hydrological year.

  1. Northern hydrology and water resources in a changing environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, D.L.

    1993-01-01

    The role that climatic change may play in altering various components of the hydrologic cycle in Arctic regions is discussed. The hydrologic setting of these regions is first described, noting the importance of subsurface freezing and thawing on hydrologic pathways and the lack of incorporation of soil freezing and thawing into climate models. Major processes of interest in the relation between climate change and hydrology are the timing and magnitude of fluxes entering and leaving a basin: precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, and runoff. The active layer of the soil could be drastically increased by only a few degrees of surface warming. The natural hydrologic cycle has considerable yearly variation, tending to mask any hydrologic changes caused by climatic change. There are too many unknowns at present for an adequate prediction of the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle. The biggest uncertainty is how the timing and quantity of precipitation is going to change. This quantity could be altered by any major changes in vegetation, which would be closely related to the amount of warming. In hydrologic scenarios where air temperature rises 4 degree C over 50 y, under stable, high, and low precipitation conditions, there are no significant changes in hydrologic response. 24 refs., 6 figs

  2. CHANGES OF WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS OF MIDFOREST POND IN A HYDROLOGICAL YEARS OF A DIFFERENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITION COURSE

    OpenAIRE

    Mariusz Korytowski; Czesław Szafrański

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the results of the researches carried out at the catchment of water pond number one, located at Wielosławice Forestry of Siemianice Experimental Farm. The researches were carried out in three hydrological years 2002/2003, 2003/2004 i 2009/2010 of a different precipitation sums. The area of investigated catchment of pond number one is about 7,5 ha and its forestation totals 100 % and it is situated in a part of Niesób catchment - left-side tributary of Prosna River. Fresh ha...

  3. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  4. Relations between precipitation, groundwater withdrawals, and changes in hydrologic conditions at selected monitoring sites in Volusia County, Florida, 1995--2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Louis C.

    2012-01-01

    precipitation conditions than during wetter than average conditions. For precipitation-averaged hydrologic conditions, water-level changes in the surficial aquifer system were statistically correlated solely with precipitation or were more highly correlated with precipitation than with groundwater withdrawals. Changes in Upper Floridan aquifer water levels and in water-surface stage (stage) at Indian and Scoggin Lakes tended to be highly correlated with both precipitation and withdrawals. The greater influence of withdrawals on stage changes, relative to changes in nearby surficial aquifer system water levels, indicates that these karstic lakes may be better connected hydraulically with the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer than is the surficial aquifer system at the other monitoring sites. At most sites, and for both aquifers, the 2-month moving average of precipitation or groundwater withdrawals included as an explanatory variable in the regression models indicates that water-level changes are not only influenced by stressor conditions across the current month, but also by those of the previous month. The relations between changes in water levels, precipitation, and groundwater withdrawals varied seasonally and in response to a period of drought. Water-level changes tended to be most highly correlated with withdrawals during the spring, when relatively large increases contributed to water-level declines, and during the fall when reduced withdrawal rates contributed to water-level recovery. Water-level changes tended to be most highly (or solely) correlated with precipitation in the winter, when withdrawals are minimal, and in the summer when precipitation is greatest. Water-level changes measured during the drought of October 2005 to June 2008 tended to be more highly correlated with groundwater withdrawals at Upper Floridan aquifer sites than at surficial aquifer system sites, results that were similar to those for precipitation-averaged conditions. Also, changes in stage at

  5. Detection of Hydrological changes of Wujiang River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, L.; Chen, Y.

    2016-12-01

    In the century our earth experienced a rapid environment changes due to strong human activities, which impactedthe earth'shydrology and water resources systems negatively, and causedsevere problems to the society, such as increased flood and drought risk, water pollution and ecosystem degradation. Understanding the variations of hydrological characteristics has important meaning to solve the problem of hydrology and water resources and maintain sustainable development of river basin water resources.This paper takesWujiangriveras an example,which is a typical medium watershedaffected by human activities seriously in southern China.Using the methods of Mann-Kendall test and serial cluster analysis, this paper studies the characteristics and laws of historical hydrological process inWujiang river, detectsthe impact of changing environment to watershed hydrological processes, based on the observed hydrological data of 36 years from 1980 to 2015 in three representative hydrological stationsnamedFenshi,Chixi and Pingshi. The results show that the annual runoffandannual precipitation has some kind of changes.

  6. Ocena zmiany warunków hydrologicznych na terenach zurbanizowanych z wykorzystaniem technik GIS = GIS-based assessment of changes related to hydrological conditions in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danuta Szumińska

    2015-05-01

    email: dszum@ukw.edu.pl1   Streszczenie   W artykule zaprezentowano możliwości wykorzystania technik GIS do przeprowadzenia analizy zmiany warunków hydrologicznych. Badania przeprowadzono na terenie zurbanizowanym, na którym dokonano zmian rzeźby oraz sposobu użytkowania terenu. Spowodowało to pojawieniem się problemów z odwodnieniem terenu, przede wszystkim w czasie wzmożonego zasilania z opadów deszczu i roztopów śniegu. W celu określenia przyczyn występujących problemów porównano rzeźbę terenu oraz wyznaczono kierunki odpływu wód powierzchniowych przed i po zagospodarowaniu działki d (Ryc. 1. Czasochłonne i kosztochłonne badania geologiczne wykonano w minimalnym zakresie (Tab. 1 i zostały one wykorzystane jako informacja uzupełniająca, pozwalająca na ocenę możliwości infiltracji wody w podłoże. Na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań stwierdzono, że główne przyczyny problemów z odwodnieniem terenu związane są ze stworzeniem barier w postaci podmurówek ogrodzeń zlokalizowanych prostopadle do kierunków odpływu wody (Fot. 1, Fot. 2. Zmiany rzeźby były w analizowanym przypadku czynnikiem mniej istotnym.   Słowa kluczowe: warunki hydrologiczne, infiltracja, model rzeźby terenu, kierunki odpływu, użytkowanie terenu, tereny zurbanizowane.   Abstract   The paper discusses the possibilities of employing GIS for conducting analysis of changes in hydrological conditions. The study was carried out in an urban area featuring altered relief and use of land. This caused problems with draining the terrain, particularly at times of increased rainwater and meltwater supply. In order to identify the causes of the occurring problems, we compared land relief prior and after the plot was developed, as well as indicated the directions of surface water runoff (Fig. 1. Time-consuming and expensive geological research activities were restricted to minimum (Tab. 2 and the data thus obtained were used as supplementary information to

  7. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wada, Yoshi|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; van Lanen, H.A.J

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that

  8. The changing hydrology of a dammed Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpe, Kelsie; Kaplan, David

    2017-01-01

    Developing countries around the world are expanding hydropower to meet growing energy demand. In the Brazilian Amazon, >200 dams are planned over the next 30 years, and questions about the impacts of current and future hydropower in this globally important watershed remain unanswered. In this context, we applied a hydrologic indicator method to quantify how existing Amazon dams have altered the natural flow regime and to identify predictors of alteration. The type and magnitude of hydrologic alteration varied widely by dam, but the largest changes were to critical characteristics of the flood pulse. Impacts were largest for low-elevation, large-reservoir dams; however, small dams had enormous impacts relative to electricity production. Finally, the “cumulative” effect of multiple dams was significant but only for some aspects of the flow regime. This analysis is a first step toward the development of environmental flows plans and policies relevant to the Amazon and other megadiverse river basins. PMID:29109972

  9. Ensemble catchment hydrological modelling for climate change impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    It is vital to investigate how the hydrological model structure affects the climate change impact given that future changes not in the range for which the models were calibrated or validated are likely. Thus an ensemble modelling approach which involves a diversity of models with different structures such as spatial resolutions and process descriptions is crucial. The ensemble modelling approach was applied to a set of models: from the lumped conceptual models NAM, PDM and VHM, an intermediate detailed and distributed model WetSpa, to the highly detailed and fully distributed model MIKE-SHE. Explicit focus was given to the high and low flow extremes. All models were calibrated for sub flows and quick flows derived from rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) time series. In general, all models were able to produce reliable estimates of the flow regimes under the current climate for extreme peak and low flows. An intercomparison of the low and high flow changes under changed climatic conditions was made using climate scenarios tailored for extremes. Tailoring was important for two reasons. First, since the use of many scenarios was not feasible it was necessary to construct few scenarios that would reasonably represent the range of extreme impacts. Second, scenarios would be more informative as changes in high and low flows would be easily traced to changes of ETo and rainfall; the tailored scenarios are constructed using seasonal changes that are defined using different levels of magnitude (high, mean and low) for rainfall and ETo. After simulation of these climate scenarios in the five hydrological models, close agreement was found among the models. The different models predicted similar range of peak flow changes. For the low flows, however, the differences in the projected impact range by different hydrological models was larger, particularly for the drier scenarios. This suggests that the hydrological model structure is critical in low flow predictions

  10. HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Schymanski

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.

  11. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  12. Multiple Changes in the Hydrologic Regime of the Yangtze River and the Possible Impact of Reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Huang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates hydrologic changes in the Yangtze River using long-term daily stream flow records (1955–2013 collected from four flow gauging stations located from the upper to the lower reaches of the river. The hydrologic regime is quantified using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, which statistically characterize hydrologic variation within each year. Scanning t-test is applied to analyze multiple changes in the hydrologic regime at different time scales. Then, coherency analysis is applied to identify common changes among different hydrologic indicators and across different reaches of the Yangtze River. The results point to various change patterns in the five components of hydrologic regime, including the magnitude of monthly water conditions, magnitude and duration of annual extreme water conditions, timing of annual extreme water conditions, frequency and duration of high and low pulses, and rate and frequency of water condition changes. The 32 hydrologic indicators feature multiple temporal-scale changes. Spatial variations can be observed in the hydrologic changes of the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the river. Common changes in different reaches consist of hydrologic indicators including the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators. The monthly flow in October is dominated by decreasing trends, while the monthly flows between January and March, the annual minimum 1/3/7/30/90-day flows, and the base flow index are characterized by increasing trends. Low pulse duration and total days of low pulses feature downward trends. The coherency analysis reveals significant relationships between the monthly flow in October and the low-flow indicators, indicating that reservoir regulation is an important factor behind the hydrologic changes.

  13. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  14. From Site Data to Safety Assessment: Analysis of Present and Future Hydrological Conditions at a Coastal Site in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berglund, Sten; Bosson, Emma; Sassner, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 ad), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances

  15. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

    2016-06-01

    The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

  16. Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

  17. Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

    2012-10-01

    A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

  18. Characterizing fate and transport properties in karst aquifers under different hydrologic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Padilla, I. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Karst landscapes contain very productive aquifers. The hydraulic and hydrogeological characteristics of karst aquifers make these systems capable of storing and transporting large amount of water, but also highly vulnerable to contamination. Their extremely heterogeneous nature prevents accurate prediction in contaminant fate and transport. Even more challenging is to understand the impact of hydrologic conditions changes on fate and transport processes. This studies aims at characterizing fate and transport processes in the karst groundwater system of northern Puerto Rico under different hydrologic conditions. The study involves injecting rhodamine and uranine dyes into a sinkhole, and monitoring concentrations at a spring. Results show incomplete recovery of tracers, but breaking curves can be used to estimate advective, dispersive and mass transfer characteristic of the karst system. Preliminary results suggest significant differences in fate and transport characteristics under different hydrologic conditions.

  19. Impact of dam-induced hydrological changes on riparian vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tealdi, Stefano; Camporeale, Carlo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2010-05-01

    Hydrological disturbances are a key factor for the riparian vegetation, which is a highly dynamic ecosystem prone to external forcing. Random fluctuations of water stages drive in fact the alternation of periods of floods and exposure of the vegetated plots. During flooding, the plots are submerged and vegetation is damaged by burial, uprooting and anoxia, while during exposure periods vegetation grows according to the soil moisture content and the phreatic water table depth. The distribution of vegetation along the riparian transect is then directly connected to the stochasticity of river discharges. River damming can have remarkable impacts on the hydrology of a river and, consequently, on the riparian vegetation. Several field studies show how the river regulation induced by artificial reservoirs can greatly modify the statistical moments and the autocorrelation of the discharge time series. The vegetation responds to these changes reducing its overall heterogeneity, declining - substituted by exotic species - and shifting its starting position nearer or far away from the channel center. These latter processes are known as narrowing and widening, respectively. In our work we explore the effects of dam-induced hydrological changes on the narrowing/widening process and on the total biomass along the transect. To this aim we use an eco-hydrological stochastic model developed by Camporeale and Ridolfi [2006], which is able to give a realistic distribution of the biomass along the transect as a function of a few hydrologic, hydraulic and vegetation parameters. We apply the model to an exemplifying case, by investigating the vegetation response to a set of changes in mean discharge and coefficient of variation. The range of these changes is deduced from the analysis of field data in pre- and post-dam conditions. Firstly, we analyze the narrowing/widening process. In particular, we analyze two percentage differences of the starting transversal position with respect to

  20. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

  1. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Wanders

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that considers adaptation to future changes in hydrological regime. The global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was used to simulate daily discharge at 0.5° globally for 1971–2099. The model was forced with CMIP5 climate projections taken from five global circulation models (GCMs and four emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs, from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Drought events occur when discharge is below a threshold. The conventional variable threshold (VTM was calculated by deriving the threshold from the period 1971–2000. The transient variable threshold (VTMt is a non-stationary approach, where the threshold is based on the discharge values of the previous 30 years implying the threshold to vary every year during the 21st century. The VTMt adjusts to gradual changes in the hydrological regime as response to climate change. Results show a significant negative trend in the low flow regime over the 21st century for large parts of South America, southern Africa, Australia and the Mediterranean. In 40–52% of the world reduced low flows are projected, while increased low flows are found in the snow-dominated climates. In 27% of the global area both the drought duration and the deficit volume are expected to increase when applying the VTMt. However, this area will significantly increase to 62% when the VTM is applied. The mean global area in drought, with the VTMt, remains rather constant (11.7 to 13.4%, compared to the substantial increase when the VTM is applied (11.7 to 20%. The study illustrates that an alternative drought identification that considers adaptation to an altered hydrological regime has a

  2. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  3. Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Fokko Hattermann

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions.

  4. Changing Hydrology in Glacier-fed High Altitude Andean Peatbogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slayback, D. A.; Yager, K.; Baraer, M.; Mohr, K. I.; Argollo, J.; Wigmore, O.; Meneses, R. I.; Mark, B. G.

    2012-12-01

    Montane peatbogs in the glacierized Andean highlands of Peru and Bolivia provide critical forage for camelids (llama and alpaca) in regionally extensive pastoral agriculture systems. During the long dry season, these wetlands often provide the only available green forage. A key question for the future of these peatbog systems, and the livelihoods they support, is the impact of climate change and glacier recession on their hydrology, and thus forage production. We have already documented substantial regional glacier recession, of, on average, approximately 30% of surface area over the past two decades. As glaciers begin to retreat under climate change, there is initially a period of increased meltwater outflow, culminating in a period of "peak water", and followed by a continual decline in outflows. Based on previous work, we know that some glaciers in the region have already passed peak water conditions, and are now declining. To better understand the impacts of these processes on peatbog hydrology and productivity, we have begun collecting a variety of surface data at several study sites in both Bolivia and Peru. These include precipitation, stream flow, water levels, water chemistry and isotope analyses, and peatbog biodiversity and biomass. These measurements will be used in conjunction with a regional model driven by satellite data to predict likely future impacts. We will present the results from these initial surface measurements, and an overview of satellite datasets to be used in the regional model.

  5. Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Brian A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.

  6. Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Phillip D.; Knierim, Katherine J.; Breaker, Brian K.; Westerman, Drew A.; Clark, Brian R.

    2016-11-23

    The hydrogeology and hydrologic characteristics of the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system were characterized as part of ongoing U.S. Geological Survey efforts to assess groundwater availability across the Nation. The need for such a study in the Ozark Plateaus physiographic province (Ozark Plateaus) is highlighted by increasing demand on groundwater resources by the 5.3 million people of the Ozark Plateaus, water-level declines in some areas, and potential impacts of climate change on groundwater availability. The subject study integrates knowledge gained through local investigation within a regional perspective to develop a regional conceptual model of groundwater flow in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (Ozark system), a key phase of groundwater availability assessment. The Ozark system extends across much of southern Missouri and northwestern and north-central Arkansas and smaller areas of southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. The region is one of the major karst landscapes in the United States, and karst aquifers are predominant in the Ozark system. Groundwater flow is ultimately controlled by aquifer and confining unit lithologies and stratigraphic relations, geologic structure, karst development, and the character of surficial lithologies and regolith mantle. The regolith mantle is a defining element of Ozark Plateaus karst, affecting recharge, karst development, and vulnerability to surface-derived contaminants. Karst development is more advanced—as evidenced by larger springs, hydraulic characteristics, and higher well yields—in the Salem Plateau and in the northern part of the Springfield Plateau (generally north of the Arkansas-Missouri border) as compared with the southern part of the Springfield Plateau in Arkansas, largely due to thinner, less extensive regolith and purer carbonate lithology.Precipitation is the ultimate source of all water to the Ozark system, and the hydrologic budget for the Ozark system includes inputs from recharge

  7. Hydrologic Futures: Using Scenario Analysis to Evaluate Impacts of Forecasted Land Use Change on Hydrologic Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Land cover and land use changes can substantially alter hydrologic ecosystem services. Water availability and quality can change with modifications to the type or amount of surface vegetation, the permeability of soil and other surfaces, and the introduction of contaminants throu...

  8. When Everything Changes: Mountaintop Mining Effects on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nippgen, F.; Ross, M. R.; McGlynn, B. L.; Bernhardt, E. S.

    2015-12-01

    Mountaintop removal coal mining (MTM) in the Central Appalachians has expanded over the last 40 years to cover ~7% of this mountainous landscape. MTM operations remove mountaintops and ridges with explosives and machinery to access underlying coal seams. Much of this crushed rock overburden is subsequently deposited into nearby valleys, creating valley fills that often bury headwater streams. In contrast to other disturbances such as forest clear-cutting, perturbations from MTM can extend hundreds of meters deep into the critical zone and completely reshape landscapes. Despite the expansiveness and intensity of the disturbance, MTM has only recently begun to receive focused attention from the hydrologic community and the effect of MTM on the hydrology of impacted watersheds is still not well understood. We are using a two-pronged approach consisting of GIS analysis to quantify spoil volumes and landscape change, together with empirical analysis and modeling of rainfall and runoff data collected in two sets of paired watersheds. We seek to investigate how MTM affects basic hydrologic metrics, including storm peakflows, runoff response times, baseflow, statistics of flow duration curves, and longer-term water balances. Each pair consists of a mined and an unmined watershed; the first set contains headwater streams (size ~100ha), the second set consists of 3rd order streams, draining ~3500ha. Mining covers ~ 95% of the headwater watershed, and 40% of the 3rd-order watershed. Initial GIS analysis indicates that the overburden moved during the mining process could be up to three times greater than previously estimated. Storm runoff peaks in the mined watersheds were muted as compared to the unmined watersheds and runoff ratios were reduced by up to 75% during both wet and dry antecedent conditions. The natural reference watersheds were highly responsive while the additional storage in the mined watersheds led to decreased peak flows during storms and enhanced baseflow

  9. Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar M; Yakir, Dan; Osem, Yagil

    2017-07-01

    More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006-2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280-820 mm yr -1 ) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17-0.56). We use a satellite-based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less-than-expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco-physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological

  10. Hydrological Changes of the Irtysh River and the Possible Causes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, F.; Xia, Z.; Li, F.; Guo, L.; Yang, F.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological changes of the Irtysh River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the

  11. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    2016-01-29

    Jan 29, 2016 ... The programme focuses on hydrology of mountains, which provide water around 40 % of the world population. Changes in temperature and precipitation have in recent years led to the retreat of glaciers in mountains. Climatic changes do not only affect glaciers or the nival zone; a change in climatic ...

  12. Realizing ecosystem services: wetland hydrologic function along a gradient of ecosystem condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Daniel L; Cohen, Matthew J

    2013-10-01

    Wetlands provide numerous ecosystem services, from habitat provision to pollutant removal, floodwater storage, and microclimate regulation. Delivery of particular services relies on specific ecological functions, and thus to varying degree on wetland ecological condition, commonly quantified as departure from minimally impacted reference sites. Condition assessments are widely adopted as regulatory indicators of ecosystem function, and for some services (e.g., habitat) links between condition and function are often direct. For others, however, links are more tenuous, and using condition alone to enumerate ecosystem value (e.g., for compensatory mitigation) may underestimate important services. Hydrologic function affects many services cited in support of wetland protection both directly (floodwater retention, microclimate regulation) and indirectly (biogeochemical cycling, pollutant removal). We investigated links between condition and hydrologic function to test the hypothesis, embedded in regulatory assessment of wetland value, that condition predicts function. Condition was assessed using rapid and intensive approaches, including Florida's official wetland assessment tool, in 11 isolated forested wetlands in north Florida (USA) spanning a land use intensity gradient. Hydrologic function was assessed using hydrologic regime (mean, variance, and rates of change of water depth), and measurements of groundwater exchange and evapotranspiration (ET). Despite a wide range in condition, no systematic variation in hydrologic regime was observed; indeed reference sites spanned the full range of variation. In contrast, ET was affected by land use, with higher rates in intensive (agriculture and urban) landscapes in response to higher leaf area. ET determines latent heat exchange, which regulates microclimate, a valuable service in urban heat islands. Higher ET also indicates higher productivity and thus carbon cycling. Groundwater exchange regularly reversed flow direction

  13. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... use scenarios. The results revealed that even though the hydrological models all showed similar performance during calibration, the mean discharge response to climate change varied up to 30%, and the variations were even higher for extreme events (1th and 99th percentile). Land use changes appeared...... to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice...

  14. Variability of Bed Load Components in Different Hydrological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Kheirfam

    2017-04-01

    New hydrological insights: We found that the amount of the minimum, the mean and the maximum bed load were 3 × 10−8, 6.15 × 10−4± 7.17 × 10−4 and 4.38 × 10−3 kg s−1, respectively. The minimum, the mean, and the maximum discharge were also 60, 334 ± 215.56 and 780 l s−1, respectively. In low discharge conditions during summer, the fine grain sediments had the largest amount of bed load sediment. Coarse and medium-grained sediment transportation was higher in autumn and the early winter consistent with the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood flows.

  15. “Black Swans” of Hydrology: Can our Models Address the Science of Hydrologic Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, P.

    2009-12-01

    Coupled models of terrestrial hydrology and climate have grown in complexity leading to better understanding of the coupling between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and the climate system. During the past two decades, these models have evolved through generational changes as they have grown in sophistication in their ability to resolve spatial heterogeneity as well as vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry. These developments have, in part, been driven by data collection efforts ranging from focused field campaigns to long-term observational networks, advances in remote sensing and other measurement technologies, along with sophisticated estimation and assimilation methods. However, the hydrologic cycle is changing leading to unexpected and unanticipated behavior through emergent dynamics and patterns that are not part of the historical milieu. Is there a new thinking that is needed to address this challenge? The goal of this talk is to draw from the modeling developments in the past two decades to foster a debate for moving forward.

  16. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 21; Issue 1. Refresher Course on Mountain Hydrology and Climate Change. Information and Announcements Volume 21 Issue 1 January 2016 pp 106-107. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  17. Estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veijalainen, N.

    2012-07-01

    Climate scenarios project increases in air temperature and precipitation in Finland during the 21st century and these will results in changes in hydrology. In this thesis climate change impacts on hydrology and floods in Finland were estimated with hydrological modelling and several climate scenarios. One of the goals was to understand the influence of different processes and catchment characteristics on the hydrological response to climate change in boreal conditions. The tool of the climate change impact assessment was the conceptual hydrological model WSFS (Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System). The studies employed and compared two methods of transferring the climate change signal from climate models to the WSFS hydrological model (delta change approach and direct bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) data). Direct RCM data was used to simulate transient hydrological scenarios for 1951- 2100 and the simulation results were analysed to detect changes in water balance components and trends in discharge series. The results revealed that seasonal changes in discharges in Finland were the clearest impacts of climate change. Air temperature increase will affect snow accumulation and melt, increase winter discharge and decrease spring snowmelt discharge. The impacts of climate change on floods in Finland by 2070-2099 varied considerably depending on the location, catchment characteristics, timing of the floods and climate scenario. Floods caused by spring snowmelt decreased or remained unchanged, whereas autumn and winter floods caused by precipitation increased especially in large lakes and their outflow rivers. Since estimation of climate change impacts includes uncertainties in every step of the long modelling process, the accumulated uncertainties by the end of the process become large. The large differences between results from different climate scenarios highlight the need to use several climate scenarios in climate change impact studies

  18. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  19. assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    71

    model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate. 24 change on rainfall ... to project future climate data based on the CO2 emission scenarios.The RCMs are of finer ..... Springer Science+Business. 2.

  20. Hydrologic conditions in New Hampshire and Vermont, water year 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiah, Richard G.; Jarvis, Jason D.; Hegemann, Robert F.; Hilgendorf, Gregory S.; Ward, Sanborn L.

    2013-01-01

    Record-high hydrologic conditions in New Hampshire and Vermont occurred during water year 2011, according to data from 125 streamgages and lake gaging stations, 27 creststage gages, and 41 groundwater wells. Annual runoff for the 2011 water year was the sixth highest on record for New Hampshire and the highest on record for Vermont on the basis of a 111-year reference period (water years 1901–2011). Groundwater levels for the 2011 water year were generally normal in New Hampshire and normal to above normal in Vermont. Record flooding occurred in April, May, and August of water year 2011. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 38 streamgages, 25 of which had more than 10 years of record. Flooding in April 2011 was widespread in parts of northern New Hampshire and Vermont; peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine streamgages. Flash flooding in May 2011 was isolated to central and northeastern Vermont; peakof- record streamflows were recorded at five streamgages. Devastating flooding in August 2011 occurred throughout most of Vermont and in parts of New Hampshire as a result of the heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Irene. Peak-ofrecord streamflows were recorded at 24 streamgages.

  1. Summary of hydrologic conditions of the Louisville area of Kentucky

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Edwin Allen

    1966-01-01

    Water problems and their solutions have been associated with the growth and development of the Louisville area for more than a century. Many hydrologic data that aided water users in the past can be applied to present water problems and will be helpful for solving many similar problems in the future. Most of the water problems of Louisville, a water-rich area, concern management and are associated with the distribution of supplies, the quality of water, drainage, and waste disposal. The local hydrologic system at Louisville is dominated by the Ohio River and the glacial-outwash deposits beneath its flood plain. The water-bearing limestones in the uplands are ,secondary sources of water. The average flow of the Ohio River at Louisville, 73 billion gallons per day, and the potential availability of 370 million gallons per day of ground water suitable for industrial cooling purposes minimize the chance of acute water shortage in the area. Under current development, use of water averages about 211 million gallons per day, excluding about 392 million gallons of Ohio River water circulated daily through steampower plants and returned directly to the river. Optimum use and control of the water resources will be dependent on solving several water problems. The principal sources of water are in the Ohio River bottom land, whereas the new and potential centers of use are in the uplands. Either water must be piped to these new centers from the present sources or new supplies must be developed. Available data on streamflow and ground water are adequate to plan for the development of small local supplies. Since the completion of floodwalls and levees in 1953, widespread damage from flooding is a thing of the past in the Louisville area. Some local flooding of unprotected areas and of lowlands along tributary streams still takes place. The analyses of streamflow data are useful in planning for protection of these areas, but additional streamflow records and flood-area mapping

  2. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, John M.

    1977-01-01

    Lists many recent research projects in hydrology, including flow in fractured media, improvements in remote-sensing techniques, effects of urbanization on water resources, and developments in drainage basins. (MLH)

  3. Hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obando G, E.

    1989-01-01

    Isotopical techniques are used in hydrology area for exploration, evaluation and exploration of water investigation. These techniques have been used successfully and are often the best or only means for providing certain hydrogeological parameters

  4. Regionalisation of Hydrological Indices to Assess Land-Use Change Impacts in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, W.; Ochoa Tocachi, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Andean ecosystems are major water sources for cities and communities located in the Tropical Andes; however, there is a considerable lack of knowledge about their hydrology. Two problems are especially important: (i) the lack of monitoring to assess the impacts of historical land-use and cover change and degradation (LUCCD) at catchment scale, and (ii) the high variability in climatic and hydrological conditions that complicate the evaluation of land management practices. This study analyses how a reliable LUCCD impacts assessment can be performed in an environment of high variability combined with data-scarcity and low-quality records. We use data from participatory hydrological monitoring activities in 20 catchments distributed along the tropical Andes. A set of 46 hydrological indices is calculated and regionalized by relating them to 42 physical catchment properties. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is performed to maximise available data while minimising redundancy in the sets of variables. Hydrological model parameters are constrained by estimated indices, and different behavioural predictions are assembled to provide a generalised response on which we assess LUCCD impacts. Results from this methodology show that the attributed effects of LUCCD in pair-wise catchment comparisons may be overstated or hidden by different sources of uncertainty, including measurement inaccuracies and model structural errors. We propose extrapolation and evaluation in ungauged catchments as a way to regionalize LUCCD predictions and to provide statistically significant conclusions in the Andean region. These estimations may deliver reliable knowledge to evaluate the hydrological impact of different watershed management practices.

  5. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  6. Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brutsaert, Wilfried

    2005-08-01

    Water in its different forms has always been a source of wonder, curiosity and practical concern for humans everywhere. Hydrology - An Introduction presents a coherent introduction to the fundamental principles of hydrology, based on the course that Wilfried Brutsaert has taught at Cornell University for the last thirty years. Hydrologic phenomena are dealt with at spatial and temporal scales at which they occur in nature. The physics and mathematics necessary to describe these phenomena are introduced and developed, and readers will require a working knowledge of calculus and basic fluid mechanics. The book will be invaluable as a textbook for entry-level courses in hydrology directed at advanced seniors and graduate students in physical science and engineering. In addition, the book will be more broadly of interest to professional scientists and engineers in hydrology, environmental science, meteorology, agronomy, geology, climatology, oceanology, glaciology and other earth sciences. Emphasis on fundamentals Clarification of the underlying physical processes Applications of fluid mechanics in the natural environment

  7. Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pundsack, J. W.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    There are several notable gaps in our current level of understanding of Arctic hydrological systems. At the same time, rapidly emerging data sets, technologies, and modeling resources provide us with an unprecedented opportunity to move substantially forward. The Arctic Community-Wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program (Arctic-CHAMP), funded by NSF/ARCSS, was established to initiate a major effort to improve our current monitoring of water cycle variables, and to foster collaboration with the many relevant U.S. and international arctic research initiatives. These projects, funded under ARCSS through the ‘Freshwater Integration (FWI) study’, links CHAMP, the Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes (ASOF) Programme, and SEARCH. As part of the overall synthesis and integration efforts of the NSF-ARCSS Freshwater Integration (FWI) study, the program carried-out a major International Synthesis Capstone Workshop in Fall 2009 as an International Polar Year (IPY) affiliated meeting. The workshop, "Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System,” was held 30 September to 4 October 2009 in Stockholm at the Beijer Auditorium of the Royal Swedish Academy. The workshop was sponsored by the NSF-ARCSS Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office (City College of New York / Univ. of New Hampshire), the International Study of Arctic Change (ISAC), and the International Arctic Research Center (IARC; Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks). The overarching goals of the meeting were to stage a post-IPY lessons-learned workshop with co-equal numbers of FWI, IPY, and ICARP-II researchers, using insights from recent scientific findings, data, and strategies to afford synthesis. The workshop aimed to: (1) take stock of recent advances in our understanding of changes in the Arctic hydrological system; (2) identify key remaining research gaps / unanswered questions; and (3) gather insight on where to focus future research efforts/initiatives (nationally and

  8. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  9. Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2010-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

  10. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  11. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  12. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  13. Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 10, Basic Principles of Incorporating Adaptation Science into Hydrologic Planning and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  14. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 9, Water System Resilience and Security under Hydrologic Variability and Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  15. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  16. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  17. Hydrological change: reaping prosperity and pain in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The adage: “There is no such thing as a free lunch”, is relevant to land-use hydrology in Australia. Changes in land use to achieve greater productivity of food and fibre may have an adverse effect on the water balance and hence on the natural resource capital of a catchment. An altered regime of catchment outflow accompanies those land-use changes which, together with land degradation, impairs available water resources in quantity and quality and threatens enterprise sustainability, notwithstanding the initial improvement in productivity. Central to any hydrological change is an altered pattern of seasonal and annual water use by vegetation that has become modified in function with an amended transpiration fraction of daily evapotranspiration. In Australia, since measurement of evapotranspiration became feasible, the hydrological consequences of changes in land use have been determined, allowing the benefits in terms of plant productivity achieved through enhanced water use efficiency to be weighed against changed catchment outflows, diminished in either quantity or quality. Four case studies are presented as examples of ecological and hydrological changes: two deal with the upland forest environment and two with arable lowlands. In an upland eucalypt forest, following wildfire with subsequent regeneration from natural seedling establishment, substantial reduction in water yield occurred throughout a 50-year period of succession in the even-aged stand. In comparison, the effect of converting eucalypt forest to pine plantations was less detrimental to the yield of water from the catchments, with substantial growth increases over 30 years. In the lowlands, agricultural productivity, both as annual pasture and as crop, far exceeds that of natural perennial grassland and woodland. This increase in productivity comes not so much from any change to the yield of total water outflow but at the expense of water quality, compromised with increased

  18. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic...

  19. Which key properties controls the preferential transport in the vadose zone under transient hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groh, J.; Vanderborght, J.; Puetz, T.; Gerke, H. H.; Rupp, H.; Wollschlaeger, U.; Stumpp, C.; Priesack, E.; Vereecken, H.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated zone is of great importance for an appropriate land use management strategy. The quantification and prediction of water and solute fluxes through the vadose zone can help to improve management practices in order to limit potential risk on our fresh water resources. Water related solute transport and residence time is strongly affected by preferential flow paths in the soil. Water flow in soils depends on soil properties and site factors (climate or experiment conditions, land use) and are therefore important factors to understand preferential solute transport in the unsaturated zone. However our understanding and knowledge of which on-site properties or conditions define and enhance preferential flow and transport is still poor and mostly limited onto laboratory experimental conditions (small column length and steady state boundary conditions). Within the TERENO SOILCan lysimeter network, which was designed to study the effects of climate change on soil functions, a bromide tracer was applied on 62 lysimeter at eight different test sites between Dec. 2013 and Jan. 2014. The TERENO SOILCan infrastructure offers the unique possibility to study the occurrence of preferential flow and transport of various soil types under different natural transient hydrological conditions and land use (crop, bare and grassland) at eight TERENO SOILCan observatories. Working with lysimeter replicates at each observatory allows defining the spatial variability of preferential transport and flow. Additionally lysimeters in the network were transferred within and between observatories in order to subject them to different rainfall and temperature regimes and enable us to relate the soil type susceptibility of preferential flow and transport not only to site specific physical and land use properties, but also to different transient boundary conditions. Comparison and statistical analysis between preferential flow indicators 5

  20. Hydrological Appraisal of Climate Change Impacts on the Water Resources of the Xijiang Basin, South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Zhu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the impact of climate change on streamflow is critical to understanding the changes to water resources and to improve water resource management. The use of hydrological models is a common practice to quantify and assess water resources in such situations. In this study, two hydrological models with different structures, e.g., a physically-based distributed model Liuxihe (LXH and a lumped conceptual model Xinanjiang (XAJ are employed to simulate the daily runoff in the Xijiang basin in South China, under historical (1964–2013 and future (2014–2099 climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (Beijing Climate Centre-Climate System Model, BCC-CSM version 1.1 by a high-resolution regional climate model under two representative concentration pathways—RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrological responses to climate change via the two rainfall–runoff models with different mathematical structures are compared, in relation to the uncertainties in hydrology and meteorology. It is found that the two rainfall–runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the Xijiang basin, with a daily runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.80 for the LXH model and 0.89 for the XAJ model. The characteristics of high flow in the future are also analysed including their frequency (magnitude–return-period relationship. It shows that the distributed model could produce more streamflow and peak flow than the lumped model under the climate change scenarios. However the difference of the impact from the two climate scenarios is marginal on median monthly streamflow. The flood frequency analysis under climate change suggests that flood magnitudes in the future will be more severe than the historical floods with the same return period. Overall, the study reveals how uncertain it can be to quantify water resources with two different but well calibrated hydrological models.

  1. Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

    2013-04-01

    climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

  2. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States : recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.; Richardson, A.D.; McGuire, K.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study reviewed previous and projected changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States. While climatic warming and increases in precipitation, snow, and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last 100 years, the most pronounced changes have occurred since 1970. However, trends in climatic and hydrological variables have differed both spatially and temporally in different regions. Decadal-scale climatic variations have also altered long-term trends. Climate models predict continued increases in both temperature and precipitation over the next century. Increases in growing season length are expected to increase evapotranspiration and the frequency of droughts. An increase in the frequency of droughts is also expected to increase the risk of fires and other disturbances. Forest productivity and maple syrup production will be impacted, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration will be diminished. It was concluded that climate and hydrological changes will have a profound impact on forest structure, composition and ecological functioning. 131 refs., 5 figs

  3. Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kaisheng; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Xiao, Dengpan

    2016-01-01

    The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. PMID:27647454

  4. Hydrological Conditions Affect the Interspecific Interaction between Two Emergent Wetland Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Zhou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological conditions determine the distribution of plant species in wetlands, where conditions such as water depth and hydrological fluctuations are expected to affect the interspecific interactions among emergent wetland species. To test such effects, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with three treatment categories, interspecific interaction (mixed culture or monoculture, water depth (10 or 30 cm depth, and hydrological fluctuation (static or fluctuating water level, and two common emergent wetland plant species, Scirpus planiculumis Fr. (Cyperaceae and Phragmites australis var. baiyangdiansis (Gramineae. An increase in the water depth significantly restrained the growth of both S. planiculumis and P. australis, while hydrological fluctuations did not obviously alter the growth of either species. In addition, both water depth and hydrological fluctuations significantly affected the interspecific interaction between these two wetland species. P. australis benefited from interspecific interaction under increasing water depth and hydrological fluctuations, and the RII values were clearly positive for plants grown at a water depth that fluctuated around 30 cm. The results may have some implications for understanding how S. planiculumis and P. australis, as well as wetland communities, respond to the natural variation or human modification of hydrological conditions.

  5. Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

  6. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hagemann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three and hydrological models (eight were used to systematically assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia.

  7. Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

  8. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Guo-Yi; Wei, Xiaohua; Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Huang, Yuhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhang, Deqiang; Zhang, Qianmei; Liu, Juxiu; Meng, Ze; Wang, Chunlin; Chu, Guowei; Liu, Shizhong; Tang, Xu-Li; Liu, Xiaodong

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible.

  9. Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Yan, J.; Zhang, Dongxiao; Zhang, Q.; Liu, J.; Meng, Z.; Wang, C.; Chu, G.; Liu, S.; Tang, X.; Liu, Xiuying

    2011-01-01

    Responses of hydrological processes to climate change are key components in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. Understanding these responses is critical for developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for sustainable water resources management and protection of public safety. However, these responses are not well understood and little long-term evidence exists. Herein, we show how climate change, specifically increased air temperature and storm intensity, can affect soil moisture dynamics and hydrological variables based on both long-term observation and model simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in an intact forested watershed (the Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve) in Southern China. Our results show that, although total annual precipitation changed little from 1950 to 2009, soil moisture decreased significantly. A significant decline was also found in the monthly 7-day low flow from 2000 to 2009. However, the maximum daily streamflow in the wet season and unconfined groundwater tables have significantly increased during the same 10-year period. The significant decreasing trends on soil moisture and low flow variables suggest that the study watershed is moving towards drought-like condition. Our analysis indicates that the intensification of rainfall storms and the increasing number of annual no-rain days were responsible for the increasing chance of both droughts and floods. We conclude that climate change has indeed induced more extreme hydrological events (e.g. droughts and floods) in this watershed and perhaps other areas of Southern China. This study also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on quantifying the impacts of climate change on hydrology in any other watersheds where long-term data are available and human disturbance is negligible. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB. The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.

  11. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  12. Impact of physical permafrost processes on hydrological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Beer, Christian; Ekici, Altug

    2015-04-01

    Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact projected hydrological changes over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Observed SST and sea ice for 1979-1999 are used to consider induced changes in the simulated hydrological cycle. In addition, simulated SST and sea ice are taken from a MPI-ESM simulation conducted for CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The

  13. Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, C.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    With increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns associated with global climate change, the future of hydrologic resources related to snowmelt is less certain than ever. Most existing snowmelt hydrology research focuses on mountainous regions such as the western United States, where snowpack is a primary reservoir of available freshwater. Less research has been done on snowmelt hydrology in non-mountainous, temperate middle to upper latitude regions such as the Midwestern US, where snowmelt is still an important contributor to water budgets (and critically summer water supplies). This study examines the changes to watershed hydrology due to changing snowmelt patterns in Michigan, which has a tension line between seasonally-persistent snowpacks in the north, and episodic snowpacks in the south. This transition varies in space and time, and is likely moving northward as a consequence of climate change. Changes to snow and winter weather were statistically determined from output of the NOAA's Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) model along with historical weather data from the Global Historical Climatology Network. Stream data from the USGS, combined with in-house monitoring data from groundwater and soil moisture networks provide insight into the hydrologic changes. Snowmelt in years with warmer winter temperatures tend to end earlier in the year, resulting in earlier peak stream flows. These changes become more noticeable in the northern regions of the state, where snowfall amounts can be amongst the largest in the country. This study also examines the changing spatial transition zone between regions with snow lasting throughout the season and regions with a more episodic snow presence. In an area with some of the largest freshwater resources in the world, significant changes to streamflow and groundwater recharge could impact already stressed ecosystems and local water supplies.

  14. Hydrologic conditions in the South Coast aquifer, Puerto Rico, 2010–15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Gonzalez, Sigfredo; Rodriguez, Jose M.

    2016-01-15

    In 1958, the U.S. Geological Survey began documenting hydrologic conditions, including groundwater levels, groundwater withdrawals for agricultural irrigation and public water supply, and water quality, in the South Coast aquifer, Puerto Rico. This information has improved the understanding of the water resources of the region. The hydrologic data indicate that (1) groundwater levels declined as much as 40 feet in the Salinas area and 11 feet in the Guayama area during 2012–14; (2) groundwater withdrawals for agricultural irrigation increased from 6.0 to 10.5 million gallons per day, or 75 percent, from 2010 to 2012; and (3) total groundwater withdrawals decreased from 29.3 to 23.8 million gallons per day from 2010 to 2014. The quantity and quality of water in the aquifer is primarily affected by variations in aquifer recharge as a result of changing rainfall or modes of irrigation; however, the spatial patterns and magnitude of water withdrawals for all uses have a secondary impact on the quantity and quality of water in the aquifer.

  15. Hydrologic Responses to Land Use Change in the Loess Plateau: Case Study in the Upper Fenhe River Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhixiang Lu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We applied an integrated approach to investigate the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC changes on hydrology at different scales in the Loess Plateau of China. Hydrological modeling was conducted for the LULC maps from remote sensing images at two times in the Upper Fenhe River watershed using the SWAT model. The main LULC changes in this watershed from 1995 to 2010 were the transformation of farmland into forests, grassland, and built-up land. The simulation results showed that forested land contributed more than any other LULC class to water yield, but built-up land had most impact due to small initial loss and infiltration. At basin scale, a comparison of the simulated hydrological components of two LULC maps showed that there were slight increases in average annual potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water yield, but soil water decreased, between the two intervals. In subbasins, obvious LULC changes did not have clear impacts on hydrology, and the impacts may be affected by precipitation conditions. By linking a hydrological model to remote sensing image analysis, our approach of quantifying the impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at different scales provide quantitative information for stakeholders in making decisions for land and water resource management.

  16. The role of climate change in regulating Arctic permafrost peatland hydrological and vegetation change over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hui; Piilo, Sanna R.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Väliranta, Minna M.

    2018-02-01

    Climate warming has inevitable impacts on the vegetation and hydrological dynamics of high-latitude permafrost peatlands. These impacts in turn determine the role of these peatlands in the global biogeochemical cycle. Here, we used six active layer peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in Northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland to investigate permafrost peatland dynamics over the last millennium. Testate amoeba and plant macrofossils were used as proxies for hydrological and vegetation changes. Our results show that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Russian sites experienced short-term permafrost thawing and this induced alternating dry-wet habitat changes eventually followed by desiccation. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) both sites generally supported dry-hummock habitats, at least partly driven by permafrost aggradation. However, proxy data suggest that occasionally, MCA habitat conditions were drier than during the LIA, implying that evapotranspiration may create important additional eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms under warm conditions. All sites showed a tendency towards dry conditions as inferred from both proxies starting either from ca. 100 years ago or in the past few decades after slight permafrost thawing, suggesting that recent warming has stimulated surface desiccation rather than deeper permafrost thawing. This study shows links between two important controls over hydrology and vegetation changes in high-latitude peatlands: direct temperature-induced surface layer response and deeper permafrost layer-related dynamics. These data provide important backgrounds for predictions of Arctic permafrost peatlands and related feedback mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of increased evapotranspiration and thus provide an additional perspective to understanding of peatland-climate feedback mechanisms.

  17. Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available As China's economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.

  18. CONDITIONS FOR IMPLEMENTING ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Winkler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes are one of the most typical phenomena experienced by contemporary organizations and are an inherent element of their functioning. The change introduction process is complex and it is often accompanied by a phenomenon of resistance to change on the part of the employees in an organization, which is considered as the main cause of failure in the change implementation process. The purpose of the article is to discuss the basic conditions for implementing changes related both to their adequate defining and overcoming resistance to change.

  19. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  20. Predicting hydrological response to forest changes by simple statistical models: the selection of the best indicator of forest changes with a hydrological perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, D.; Zhang, M.; Ren, S.; Hou, Y.; Yu, L.; Meng, Z.

    2017-01-01

    Forest plays an important role in hydrological cycle, and forest changes will inevitably affect runoff across multiple spatial scales. The selection of a suitable indicator for forest changes is essential for predicting forest-related hydrological response. This study used the Meijiang River, one of the headwaters of the Poyang Lake as an example to identify the best indicator of forest changes for predicting forest change-induced hydrological responses. Correlation analysis was conducted first to detect the relationships between monthly runoff and its predictive variables including antecedent monthly precipitation and indicators for forest changes (forest coverage, vegetation indices including EVI, NDVI, and NDWI), and by use of the identified predictive variables that were most correlated with monthly runoff, multiple linear regression models were then developed. The model with best performance identified in this study included two independent variables -antecedent monthly precipitation and NDWI. It indicates that NDWI is the best indicator of forest change in hydrological prediction while forest coverage, the most commonly used indicator of forest change is insignificantly related to monthly runoff. This highlights the use of vegetation index such as NDWI to indicate forest changes in hydrological studies. This study will provide us with an efficient way to quantify the hydrological impact of large-scale forest changes in the Meijiang River watershed, which is crucial for downstream water resource management and ecological protection in the Poyang Lake basin.

  1. Impacts of climate and land-use changes on the hydrological dynamics in the upper Citarum River basin based on the J2000 hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magenika Julian, Miga; Fink, Manfred; Fischer, Christian; Krause, Peter; Flügel, Wolfgang-Albert

    2015-04-01

    Changes of land-use and climate will most likely result in changes of the hydrological dynamics in river basins. Such changes can be noticed in the upper Citarum River basin (UCB), Java Island, Indonesia. This basin covers 1821km2 and is located in a hilly area of the backcountry of Jakarta. Between 2005 and 2009, the basin's forest cover has been reduced by 5.0%, residential areas grew around 8.2% expanding around the existing residential areas, and 3.9% of shrubland was converted into agricultural areas. From 1985 through 2009, the mean annual air temperature increased by 0.01° C/year; whereas, precipitation slightly decreased by 6.8mm/year. The process-oriented hydrological model JAMS/J2000 was adapted and implemented to assess the impact of land-use change and climate variability on the hydrological dynamics of this basin, including consideration of the temporal and spatial distributions. For this assessment, three scenarios based on realistic events were investigated; these consisted of the following (i) land-use changes in 2005 versus 2009; (ii) temperature increase from 1984 to 2009, while keeping a precipitation constant from year 1984; and (iii) variability of precipitation from 1984 to 2009, while keeping temperature constant from year 1984. The model-input conditions of land-use, precipitation, and temperature changes where applied individually, holding the other factors constant. Model simulations were conducted for the UCB. The J2000 model for the UCB was calibrated and validated using a split-sample approach. For model calibration and validation, fairly good objective functions were achieved: i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (E) by 0.79 and 0.76, log E of 0.89 and 0.84, coefficient of determination of 0.79 and 0.77, and a percent bias of -1.4% and -1.1%. From the model-simulation results, it was concluded that the land-use changes resulted in a slight increase in stream discharge (4.6%) and a decrease of evaporation of 3.7%. The analysis of the

  2. An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

    2012-06-01

    Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

  3. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  4. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauri, H.; de Moel, H.; Ward, P.J.; Räsänen, T.A.; Keskinen, M.; Kummu, M.S.

    2012-01-01

    The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected

  5. Impacts of changing hydrology on permanent gully growth: experimental results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Stephanie S.; Gran, Karen B.; Paola, Chris

    2018-06-01

    Permanent gullies grow through head cut propagation in response to overland flow coupled with incision and widening in the channel bottom leading to hillslope failures. Altered hydrology can impact the rate at which permanent gullies grow by changing head cut propagation, channel incision, and channel widening rates. Using a set of small physical experiments, we tested how changing overland flow rates and flow volumes alter the total volume of erosion and resulting gully morphology. Permanent gullies were modeled as both detachment-limited and transport-limited systems, using two different substrates with varying cohesion. In both cases, the erosion rate varied linearly with water discharge, such that the volume of sediment eroded was a function not of flow rate, but of total water volume. This implies that efforts to reduce peak flow rates alone without addressing flow volumes entering gully systems may not reduce erosion. The documented response in these experiments is not typical when compared to larger preexisting channels where higher flow rates result in greater erosion through nonlinear relationships between water discharge and sediment discharge. Permanent gullies do not respond like preexisting channels because channel slope remains a free parameter and can adjust relatively quickly in response to changing flows.

  6. Modeling urbanized watershed flood response changes with distributed hydrological model: key hydrological processes, parameterization and case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization is the world development trend for the past century, and the developing countries have been experiencing much rapider urbanization in the past decades. Urbanization brings many benefits to human beings, but also causes negative impacts, such as increasing flood risk. Impact of urbanization on flood response has long been observed, but quantitatively studying this effect still faces great challenges. For example, setting up an appropriate hydrological model representing the changed flood responses and determining accurate model parameters are very difficult in the urbanized or urbanizing watershed. In the Pearl River Delta area, rapidest urbanization has been observed in China for the past decades, and dozens of highly urbanized watersheds have been appeared. In this study, a physically based distributed watershed hydrological model, the Liuxihe model is employed and revised to simulate the hydrological processes of the highly urbanized watershed flood in the Pearl River Delta area. A virtual soil type is then defined in the terrain properties dataset, and its runoff production and routing algorithms are added to the Liuxihe model. Based on a parameter sensitive analysis, the key hydrological processes of a highly urbanized watershed is proposed, that provides insight into the hydrological processes and for parameter optimization. Based on the above analysis, the model is set up in the Songmushan watershed where there is hydrological data observation. A model parameter optimization and updating strategy is proposed based on the remotely sensed LUC types, which optimizes model parameters with PSO algorithm and updates them based on the changed LUC types. The model parameters in Songmushan watershed are regionalized at the Pearl River Delta area watersheds based on the LUC types of the other watersheds. A dozen watersheds in the highly urbanized area of Dongguan City in the Pearl River Delta area were studied for the flood response changes due to

  7. Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2014-05-01

    Most of the climate models projections for the Mediterranean basin have showed that the region will likely to experience a general tendency towards drier climate conditions with decreases in total precipitation, increases in temperature, alterations in the rainfall extreme events and droughts frequency (IPCC, 2007; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008; López-Moreno et al., 2011). The region is already suffering from water resources scarcity and vulnerability which are expected to amplify in the next century (Ludwig et al., 2011; Schneider et al., 2013). Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of Mediterranean catchments is with a major concern not only to scientist but also to water resources policy makers and general public. However, most of the climate change impact studies focus on the flow regime on global or regional scale rather than on the catchment scale which is more useful and more appropriate to guide practical mitigation and adaptation policy. This is because hydro-climate modeling at the local scale is confronted to the variability in climate, topography, geology, lack of observations and anthropogenic activities within the catchment. Furthermore, it is well recognized that hydrological and climate models forecasts are always affected with uncertainty making the assessment of climate change impact on Mediterranean catchment hydrology more challenging. This work aims to assess the impact of climate change on a Mediterranean catchment located in North Africa (the Chiba catchment in northeast Tunisia) through a conjunctive use of physically based hydrological model (SWAT) driven with four climate models*. Quantification of the impact of climate change has been conducted by means of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (Richter et al., 1996) which are also ecologically meaningful. By comparing changes in these indicators in the reference period (1971-2000) to the projected ones in the future (2041-2070), it was possible to draw

  8. SWAT-simulated hydrological impact of land-use change in the Zanjanrood basin, Northwest Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghaffari, G.; Ghodousi, J.; Ahmadi, H.; Keesstra, S.D.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of land-use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land-use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and

  9. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pumo, Dario, E-mail: dario.pumo@unipa.it; Caracciolo, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.caracciolo@unipa.it; Viola, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Noto, Leonardo V., E-mail: leonardo.noto@unipa.it

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  10. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  11. Return to normal streamflows and water levels: summary of hydrologic conditions in Georgia, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaak, Andrew E.; Caslow, Kerry; Peck, Michael F.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) South Atlantic Water Science Center (SAWSC) Georgia office, in cooperation with local, State, and other Federal agencies, maintains a long-term hydrologic monitoring network of more than 340 real-time continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages), including 10 real-time lake-level monitoring stations, 67 real-time surface-water-quality monitors, and several water-quality sampling programs. Additionally, the SAWSC Georgia office operates more than 180 groundwater monitoring wells, 39 of which are real-time. The wide-ranging coverage of streamflow, reservoir, and groundwater monitoring sites allows for a comprehensive view of hydrologic conditions across the State. One of the many benefits of this monitoring network is that the analyses of the data provide a spatially distributed overview of the hydrologic conditions of creeks, rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers in Georgia.

  12. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lauri

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia between the baseline (1982–1992 and projected time period (2032–2042 ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will

  13. Effects of hydrologic conditions on biogeochemical processes and organic pollutant degradation in salt marsh sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    W. James Catallo

    2000-01-01

    This work addressed the influence of tidal vs. static hydrologic conditions on biogeochemical processes and the transformation of pollutant organic chemicals (eight representative N-, O-, and S-heterocycles (NOSHs) from coal chemicals, crude oils, and pyrogenic mixtures) in salt marsh sediments. The goals were to: (1) determine the effects of static (flooded, drained)...

  14. HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE TROPOSPHERIC FLUX OF VINCLOZOLIN AND ITS DEGRADATION PRODUCTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A laboratory chamber was used to determine hydrologic conditions that lead to the tropospheric flux of a suspected anti-androgenic dicarboximide fungicide, vinclozolin (3-(3,5-dichlorophenyl)-5-methyl-5-vinyl-oxzoli-dine-2,4-dione) and three degradation products from sterilized...

  15. Technical note: Representing glacier geometry changes in a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Seibert

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers play an important role in high-mountain hydrology. While changing glacier areas are considered of highest importance for the understanding of future changes in runoff, glaciers are often only poorly represented in hydrological models. Most importantly, the direct coupling between the simulated glacier mass balances and changing glacier areas needs feasible solutions. The use of a complex glacier model is often not possible due to data and computational limitations. The Δh parameterization is a simple approach to consider the spatial variation of glacier thickness and area changes. Here, we describe a conceptual implementation of the Δh parameterization in the semi-distributed hydrological model HBV-light, which also allows for the representation of glacier advance phases and for comparison between the different versions of the implementation. The coupled glacio-hydrological simulation approach, which could also be implemented in many other semi-distributed hydrological models, is illustrated based on an example application.

  16. The role of vegetated areas on fish assemblage of the Paraná River floodplain: effects of different hydrological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan José Neiff

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the changes in composition and abundance of fish assemblages in seven vegetated floodplain wetlands with different connectivity across different hydrologic conditions: after a prolonged connection of the floodplain with the main channel, during receding water, and after a prolonged isolation. We also investigated the size and abundance of large-sized migratory species found in these wetlands and the food resources exploited by the dominant fish. Fishes were captured by diurnal seining (8.0 m x 1.50 m, 5 mm mesh along macrophyte banks. Despite the high total number of species registered (100, sample species richness varied between 7 and 31, depending on the sampling site and the sampling date. Cluster analysis indicated low similarity between sites during both the isolation and the prolonged connection. Species turnover decreased from high water (β = 40.33 to low water (β = 33.83, with the minimum value of beta diversity index obtained during the isolation of the floodplain wetlands (β = 26.83. Our results indicated that different dominant populations of fish occur in different hydrological conditions, even though high water and isolation phases occur in the same season of different years. The ordination (NMDS indicated the importance of hydrologic conditions in structuring fish assemblages in the studied floodplain. Small-sized characids, typically associated with macrophytes, dominated the fish assemblages, whereas the younger stages of large sized migratory species were found in low abundance. The maximum standard length of the fish captured was 28 cm and for large migratory fish, standard length varied between 1.6 and 25.0 cm. The dominant fish used several food resources, but littoral macrophytes-associated organisms had a high frequency of occurrence in the three hydrologic conditions. The high species richness of fish in the small, vegetated lakes was related to the high spatial heterogeneity during different

  17. Analysis on hydrological condition for uranium ore formation in Wuerhe district, Junggar Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Quanqing; Zhang Xinke; Ren Manchuan

    2009-01-01

    Wuerhe district is located in the northwestern part of Junggar Basin, Xinjiang. It belongs to a relative quiet area without the obvious tectonic activities and obvious subsequent tectonic activization. Through the regional uranium resources evaluation on this area, the inter-bedded oxidation zone and uranium mineralization are discovered in Cretaceous. The wall rock, the recharge-runoff-discharge mechanism of groundwater, palaeo-hydrological condition, hydrological and hydrogeochemical features of groundwater are introduced briefly, the favorable uranium ore-forming segment is summarized to be located in the fore-mountain area to the west of Ke-Xia fault terrace zone. (authors)

  18. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

    2017-08-01

    Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management

  19. Quantifying the changes in the High Mountain Asia snow hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Y.; Kumar, S.; Mocko, D. M.; Rosenberg, R. I.; Kwon, Y.; Forman, B. A.; Zaitchik, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    The melting of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) provides the water needs of approximately 1.3 billion people in the region. Increasing temperatures have large effects on the hydrologic cycle, influencing snowmelt, snowpack, stream flow, and water runoff, which can impact all aspects of water security, such as water allocation, conservation, efficiency and land-use planning. Most mountain regions, however, remain ungauged without in-situ measurement of precipitation or snowpack due to the complex terrain, and thus it is difficult to understand the regional water balance and assess how it might change in the future. In this study, we focus on characterizing the spatiotemporal patterns of snowpack states and fluxes over the last 30+ years (1980 - present) and assessing the relationship between snowmelt and runoff. The Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options, version 3.6 (Noah-MP.3.6) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is used to establish a high resolution (1 km) modeling environment over the HMA. Combining information from satellite observations and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to provide an effective way to develop spatially and temporally continuous estimates of changes. To improve the spatial representativeness of the precipitation field for modeling at 1km resolution, the input field is downscaled using a stochastic downscaling method with the monthly WorldClim data. The other meteorological inputs (e.g., air temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, and downward shortwave and longwave) are corrected for elevation through lapse-rate and slope-aspect methods. Evaluation of the model estimates is presented using satellite-derived data (e.g., MODIS and GRACE) and reanalysis products (e.g., CMC and ERA-interim).

  20. Modeling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

    OpenAIRE

    Guan, M; Sillanpää, N; Koivusalo, H

    2015-01-01

    Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium-density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of sc...

  1. Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds.

  2. Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

    2015-06-01

    In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains

  3. Modelling the effect of hydrological change on estuarine health: An Australian Perspective. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, L. C.; Adiyanti, S.; Ruibal, A. L.; Hipsey, M. R.

    2013-12-01

    relevant estuarine health indicators. In general terms, the greatest threat identified was an increasing trend towards low flow conditions, both during winter and summer months beyond the usual pattern of flow variability. Minimum flows required to maintain estuarine health were determined using the models. In order to support management decisions related to environmental flow allocation and other interventions, examples of how the high frequency model output can be used to develop simple ';reduced' models that relate parameters of estuarine health to hydrological variability are described. Areas where further research is required to improve our understanding of estuarine response to hydrological change are discussed.

  4. Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

    2018-06-01

    Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

  5. Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2009-01-01

    We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

  6. The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arkin, Phillip A; Janowiak, John; Smith, Thomas M; Sapiano, Mathew R P

    2010-01-01

    Climate models project large changes in global surface temperature in coming decades that are expected to be accompanied by significant changes in the global hydrological cycle. Validation of model simulations is essential to support their use in decision making, but observing the elements of the hydrological cycle is challenging, and model-independent global data sets exist only for precipitation. We compute the sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature using available global precipitation data sets and compare the results against the sensitivities derived from model simulations of 20th century climate. The implications of the results for the global climate observing system are discussed.

  7. Analysis of interrelation between water quality and hydrologic conditions on a small karst catchment area of sinking watercourse Trbuhovica

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinic, V; Grzetic, A; Ljubotina, M; Rubinic, J; Ruzic, I; Volf, G; Vuckovic, I; Kvas, N

    2008-01-01

    Sinking watercourse Trbuhovica is located at the topping karst of Gorski Kotar in Croatia, near the Slovenian border. About 900 inhabitants live in Trbuhovica catchment area. Sewage system had not been built. The project KEEP WATERS CLEAN (INTERREG III A project) was approved by EU commission and has a purpose of investigating water resources of that area, their appropriate protection and improving management of those resources. This paper presents project's 1st phase investigation results: hydrologic conditions and water quality at several locations on stream and at the springs of Trbuhovica, Mlake and Obrh. Climatologic (precipitation, air temperature and snow cover), basic hydrologic characteristics (flow and water temperature), water quality parameters (pH, electric conductivity, alkalinity, oxygen regime, nutrients and mineral oils) and microbiology indicators have been monitored. Samples of micro invertebrates and samples of periphyton have been collected in the field. Biological results have been elaborated via Saprobial Index according to Pantle-Buck. Analyses results showed a strong connection between hydrologic condition and selected water quality parameters. The groundwater quality changes are very quick. Maximum pollutions occur during the period of intensive rain. Water at the spring of Mlaka is very clean and is classified in the first to second water category, while Trbuhovica shows higher organic pollution.

  8. Analysis of interrelation between water quality and hydrologic conditions on a small karst catchment area of sinking watercourse Trbuhovica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinić, V.; Rubinić, J.; Vučković, I.; Ružić, I.; Gržetić, A.; Volf, G.; Ljubotina, M.; Kvas, N.

    2008-11-01

    Sinking watercourse Trbuhovica is located at the topping karst of Gorski Kotar in Croatia, near the Slovenian border. About 900 inhabitants live in Trbuhovica catchment area. Sewage system had not been built. The project KEEP WATERS CLEAN (INTERREG III A project) was approved by EU commission and has a purpose of investigating water resources of that area, their appropriate protection and improving management of those resources. This paper presents project's 1st phase investigation results: hydrologic conditions and water quality at several locations on stream and at the springs of Trbuhovica, Mlake and Obrh. Climatologic (precipitation, air temperature and snow cover), basic hydrologic characteristics (flow and water temperature), water quality parameters (pH, electric conductivity, alkalinity, oxygen regime, nutrients and mineral oils) and microbiology indicators have been monitored. Samples of micro invertebrates and samples of periphyton have been collected in the field. Biological results have been elaborated via Saprobial Index according to Pantle-Buck. Analyses results showed a strong connection between hydrologic condition and selected water quality parameters. The groundwater quality changes are very quick. Maximum pollutions occur during the period of intensive rain. Water at the spring of Mlaka is very clean and is classified in the first to second water category, while Trbuhovica shows higher organic pollution.

  9. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of Semiarid Basins in Arizona: A Platform for Land Cover and Climate Change Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, G. A.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2011-12-01

    Watershed management is challenged by rising concerns over climate change and its potential to interact with land cover alterations to impact regional water supplies and hydrologic processes. The inability to conduct experimental manipulations that address climate and land cover change at watershed scales limits the capacity of water managers to make decisions to protect future supplies. As a result, spatially-explicit, physically-based models possess value for predicting the possible consequences on watershed hydrology. In this study, we apply a distributed watershed model, the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to the Beaver Creek basin in Arizona. This sub-basin of the Verde River is representative of the regional topography, land cover, soils distribution and availability of hydrologic data in forested regions of northern Arizona. As such, it can serve as a demonstration study in the broader region to illustrate the utility of distributed models for change assessment studies. Through a model application to summertime conditions, we compare the hydrologic response from three sources of meteorological input: (1) an available network of ground-based stations, (2) weather radar rainfall estimates, and (3) the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Comparisons focus on analysis of spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff generation, evapotranspiration and recharge from the root zone at high resolution for an assessment of sustainable water supplies for agricultural and domestic purposes. We also present a preliminary analysis of the impact of vegetation change arising from historical treatments in the Beaver Creek to inform the hydrologic consequences in the form of soil moisture and evapotranspiration patterns with differing degrees of proposed forest thinning. Our results are discussed in the context of improved hydrologic predictions for sustainability and decision

  10. A Comprehensive Hydrologic Projections Resource to support Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments in the Western U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Raff, D. A.

    2010-12-01

    The SECURE Water Act § 9503(b)(2) authorizes the U.S. Department of Interior's Bureau of Reclamation to assess climate change risks for water and environmental resources in eight "major Reclamation river basins" in the Western United States (i.e. Colorado, Columbia, Klamath, Missouri, Rio Grande, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Truckee basins). The legislation calls for Reclamation to provide periodic reports on implications for water supplies, water deliveries, hydropower generation, fish and wildlife, water quality, flood control, ecological resiliency, and recreation. Reclamation's is developing a framework for consistently characterizing risks in Western U.S. river basins through the West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments, part of the Basin Study Program. One initial activity within this framework is focused on characterizing hydrologic and water supply implications of climate change. The centerpiece of this activity is the development of a west-wide ensemble of hydrologic projections, tiering from information in the online archive "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html) and utilizing a network of hydrologic model applications featured in the University of Washington and Princeton University's "Experimental National Hydrologic Prediction System" (http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide/index.shtml). The resulting hydrologic information has the same space and time attributes as the underlying downscaled climate information: 112 projections of monthly downscaled CMIP3 conditions from 1950-2099 at 1/8° resolution over the Western U.S. (nested within the underlying archive’s contiguous U.S. domain). Such attributes permit a time evolving risk-based portrayal of hydrologic conditions, which is useful for climate change adaptation discussions where the timing of impacts matters in relation the initiation and investment of adaptation or mitigation measures

  11. Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of a Small Agricultural Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Mehan

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Weather extremes and climate variability directly impact the hydrological cycle influencing agricultural productivity. The issues related to climate change are of prime concern for every nation as its implications are posing negative impacts on society. In this study, we used three climate change scenarios to simulate the impact on local hydrology of a small agricultural watershed. The three emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007 analyzed in this study were A2 (high emission, A1B (medium emission, and B1 (low emission. A process based hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and validated for the Skunk Creek Watershed located in eastern South Dakota. The model performance coefficients revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed stream flow at both monthly and daily time step. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency for monthly model performace was 0.87 for the calibration period and 0.76 for validation period. The future climate scenarios were built for the mid-21st century time period ranging from 2046 to 2065. The future climate data analysis showed an increase in temperatures between 2.2 °C to 3.3 °C and a decrease in precipitation from 1.8% to 4.5% expected under three different climate change scenarios. A sharp decline in stream flow (95.92%–96.32%, run-off (83.46%–87.00%, total water yield (90.67%–91.60%, soil water storage (89.99%–92.47%, and seasonal snow melt (37.64%–43.06% are predicted to occur by the mid-21st century. In addition, an increase in evapotranspirative losses (2%–3% is expected to occur within the watershed when compared with the baseline period. Overall, these results indicate that the watershed is highly susceptible to hydrological and agricultural drought due to limited water availability. These results are limited to the available climate projections, and future refinement in

  12. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

  13. Attenuation of organic micropollutants in an urban lowland stream under varying seasonal and hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaeger, Anna; Posselt, Malte; Schaper, Jonas; Lewandowski, Jörg

    2017-04-01

    Transport and fate of polar organic micropollutants in urban streams are of increasing concern for urban water management. Appropriate river management techniques may support a river's ability to self-purify. The river Erpe, an urban lowland stream located in Berlin, Germany, receives treated wastewater which increases its discharge up to 4-fold. Numerous micropollutants (e.g. pharmaceuticals, personal care products, performance chemicals) which survive the treatment process are released into the river and threaten ecosystems and aquatic groundwater quality. In the present work the transport of 57 substances was investigated along a 4.7 km stretch of the river with the aim of understanding the influence of varying seasonal and hydrological conditions on micropollutant fate. We hypothesized that particularly transient storage is a main driver of micropollutant attenuation. A Lagrangian sampling scheme was applied to follow water parcels down the river using the diurnal fluctuations of conservative solute concentrations as an intrinsic tracer. Water samples were collected at two (April) and three (June) stations along a 4.7 km reach downstream of the wastewater inflow. In June the experiment was conducted twice, before and after the first stretch was cleared of macrophytes. Each experiment comprised of hourly sample collection for 48 hours, accompanied by discharge measurements and continuous data logging of water-level, -temperature and electric conductivity. The set of micropollutants, which included both parent compounds and transformation products, was analysed by a newly developed direct injection-UHPLC-MS/MS method. The behaviour of individual micropollutants was compound-specific. Carbamazepine and benzotriazole were persistent along the river stretch while substances such as valsartan and metoprolol were attenuated by up to 15% of their original concentration. Interestingly, some transformation products, such as valsartan acid increased in concentration

  14. Differential soil respiration responses to changing hydrologic regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent J. Pacific; Brian L. McGlynn; Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Howard E. Epstein; Daniel L. Welsch

    2009-01-01

    Soil respiration is tightly coupled to the hydrologic cycle (i.e., snowmelt and precipitation timing and magnitude). We examined riparian and hillslope soil respiration across a wet (2005) and a dry (2006) growing season in a subalpine catchment. When comparing the riparian zones, cumulative CO2 efflux was 33% higher, and peak efflux occurred 17 days earlier during the...

  15. Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

    2015-10-01

    Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

  16. Natural and induced endoreic hydrological conditions in the Alta Murgia karstic region (Apulia, Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canora, F.; Fidelibus, M. D.; Spilotro, G.

    2009-04-01

    A study aimed at understanding the hydrological processes in karst areas related to the presence of natural and artificial endoreic basins and their modification due to land use change, as well as the influence of above factors on the infiltration rate has been carried out in the Alta Murgia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The region is a Cretaceous limestone plateau of the Apulian platform, characterized by a mature karstic landscape: due to its elevation, climatic conditions and lithology, the plateau constitutes the main recharge area of the Murgia aquifer. The typical karst topography is essentially related to the subterranean drainage (sinkholes, caves, conduit): surface and subsurface karst geomorphology is strictly interrelated with hydrology. The morphological features of the karstic plateau are defined by the high density of surface karstic forms (mainly dolines), the presence of exposed karst and karren fields, as well as by the extensive outcrop of fractured rocks. Karst surface shows, on the bottom of the morpho-structural depressions called "lame", natural distribution of modest deposits of "terra rossa" and regolith. The "lame" work as streams during and after intense rainfall events, often outlining a primordial ephemeral hydrographical network, frequently convergent towards dolines, poljes or endoreic basins. Alta Murgia shows many natural endoreic basin conditions in a quite flat morphology. In this environment, when intense rainfall events cover large areas and rainfall intensity exceeds the infiltration capacity of soils and/or sinkholes, significant runoff amounts are produced and stored in the basins causing floods. Most of the natural endoreic basins are small and independent: while the majority of them continue functioning as endoreic even in presence of extreme events of high return time, others (quasi-endoreic), under the same circumstances can start contributing to other basins, due to exceeding their water storage capability. This way

  17. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 8, Regulatory Framework Intersections: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  18. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 7, Adaptation Principles and Considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  19. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 11, Methods and Tools: Computational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  20. Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

    2013-01-01

    In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

  1. Catchment coevolution: A useful framework for improving predictions of hydrological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troch, Peter A.

    2017-04-01

    The notion that landscape features have co-evolved over time is well known in the Earth sciences. Hydrologists have recently called for a more rigorous connection between emerging spatial patterns of landscape features and the hydrological response of catchments, and have termed this concept catchment coevolution. In this presentation we present a general framework of catchment coevolution that could improve predictions of hydrologic change. We first present empirical evidence of the interaction and feedback of landscape evolution and changes in hydrological response. From this review it is clear that the independent drivers of catchment coevolution are climate, geology, and tectonics. We identify common currency that allows comparing the levels of activity of these independent drivers, such that, at least conceptually, we can quantify the rate of evolution or aging. Knowing the hydrologic age of a catchment by itself is not very meaningful without linking age to hydrologic response. Two avenues of investigation have been used to understand the relationship between (differences in) age and hydrological response: (i) one that is based on relating present landscape features to runoff processes that are hypothesized to be responsible for the current fingerprints in the landscape; and (ii) one that takes advantage of an experimental design known as space-for-time substitution. Both methods have yielded significant insights in the hydrologic response of landscapes with different histories. If we want to make accurate predictions of hydrologic change, we will also need to be able to predict how the catchment will further coevolve in association with changes in the activity levels of the drivers (e.g., climate). There is ample evidence in the literature that suggests that whole-system prediction of catchment coevolution is, at least in principle, plausible. With this imperative we outline a research agenda that implements the concepts of catchment coevolution for building

  2. Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, R.

    2017-12-01

    current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

  3. Modelling spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts under climate changes over the Nenjiang River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hao; Zhang, Wanchang

    2017-10-01

    The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model was adopted for investigating spatial and temporal variability of hydrologic impacts of climate change over the Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) based on a set of gridded forcing dataset at 1/12th degree resolution from 1970 to 2013. Basin-scale changes in the input forcing data and the simulated hydrological variables of the NRB, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major hydrometric stations were examined, which suggested that the model was performed fairly satisfactory in reproducing the observed discharges, meanwhile, the snow cover and evapotranspiration in temporal and spatial patterns were simulated reasonably corresponded to the remotely sensed ones. Wetland maps produced by multi-sources satellite images covering the entire basin between 1978 and 2008 were also utilized for investigating the responses and feedbacks of hydrological regimes on wetland dynamics. Results revealed that significant decreasing trends appeared in annual, spring and autumn streamflow demonstrated strong affection of precipitation and temperature changes over the study watershed, and the effects of climate change on the runoff reduction varied in the sub-basin area over different time scales. The proportion of evapotranspiration to precipitation characterized several severe fluctuations in droughts and floods took place in the region, which implied the enhanced sensitiveness and vulnerability of hydrologic regimes to changing environment of the region. Furthermore, it was found that the different types of wetlands undergone quite unique variation features with the varied hydro-meteorological conditions over the region, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This study provided effective scientific basis for water resource managers to develop effective eco-environment management plans and strategies that address the consequences of climate changes.

  4. Uncertainty in future water supplies from forests: hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J. A.; Achterman, G. L.; Alexander, L. E.; Brooks, K. N.; Creed, I. F.; Ffolliott, P. F.; MacDonald, L.; Wemple, B. C.

    2008-12-01

    Forests account for 33 percent of the U.S. land area, process nearly two-thirds of the fresh water supply, and provide water to 40 percent of all municipalities or about 180 million people. Water supply management is becoming more difficult given the increasing demand for water, climate change, increasing development, changing forest ownership, and increasingly fragmented laws governing forest and watershed management. In 2006, the US National Research Council convened a study on the present understanding of forest hydrology, the hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape, and research and management needs for sustaining water resources from forested landscapes. The committee concluded that while it is possible to generate short-term water yield increases by timber harvesting, there are a variety of reasons why active forest management has only limited potential to sustainably increase water supplies. These include the short-term nature of the increases in most environments, the timing of the increases, the need for downstream storage, and that continuing ground- based timber harvest can reduce water quality. At the same time, past and continuing changes in forest structure and management may be altering water supplies at the larger time and space scales that are of most interest to forest and water managers. These changes include the legacy of past forest management practices, particularly fire suppression and clearcutting; exurban sprawl, which permanently converts forest land to nonforest uses; effects of climate change on wildfires, insect outbreaks, forest structure, forest species composition, snowpack depth and snowmelt; road networks; and changes in forest land ownership. All of these changes have the potential to alter water quantity and quality from forests. Hence, the baseline conditions that have been used to estimate sustained water yields from forested watersheds may no longer be applicable. Stationarity also can no longer be assumed for the

  5. Application of bivariate mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal change and scale effects in Switzerland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Speich, Matthias J.R.; Bernhard, Luzi; Teuling, Ryan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-01-01

    Hydrological classification schemes are important tools for assessing the impacts of a changing climate on the hydrology of a region. In this paper, we present bivariate mapping as a simple means of classifying hydrological data for a quantitative and qualitative assessment of temporal change.

  6. Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, S. E.; Sivapalan, M.; Harman, C. J.; Srinivasan, V.; Hipsey, M. R.; Reed, P.; Montanari, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2013-12-01

    Globally, many different kinds of water resources management issues call for policy- and infrastructure-based responses. Yet responsible decision-making about water resources management raises a fundamental challenge for hydrologists: making predictions about water resources on decadal- to century-long timescales. Obtaining insight into hydrologic futures over 100 yr timescales forces researchers to address internal and exogenous changes in the properties of hydrologic systems. To do this, new hydrologic research must identify, describe and model feedbacks between water and other changing, coupled environmental subsystems. These models must be constrained to yield useful insights, despite the many likely sources of uncertainty in their predictions. Chief among these uncertainties are the impacts of the increasing role of human intervention in the global water cycle - a defining challenge for hydrology in the Anthropocene. Here we present a research agenda that proposes a suite of strategies to address these challenges from the perspectives of hydrologic science research. The research agenda focuses on the development of co-evolutionary hydrologic modeling to explore coupling across systems, and to address the implications of this coupling on the long-time behavior of the coupled systems. Three research directions support the development of these models: hydrologic reconstruction, comparative hydrology and model-data learning. These strategies focus on understanding hydrologic processes and feedbacks over long timescales, across many locations, and through strategic coupling of observational and model data in specific systems. We highlight the value of use-inspired and team-based science that is motivated by real-world hydrologic problems but targets improvements in fundamental understanding to support decision-making and management. Fully realizing the potential of this approach will ultimately require detailed integration of social science and physical science

  7. Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

    2015-01-01

    The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

  8. Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofan Zeng

    Full Text Available The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

  9. Spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on hydrology from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism using SWAT model with evolving parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Chang, J.; Luo, L.

    2017-12-01

    It is of great importance for water resources management to model the truly hydrological process under changing environment, especially under significant changes of underlying surfaces like the Wei River Bain (WRB) where the subsurface hydrology is highly influenced by human activities, and to systematically investigate the interactions among LULC change, streamflow variation and changes in runoff generation process. Therefore, we proposed the idea of evolving parameters in hydrological model (SWAT) to reflect the changes in physical environment with different LULC conditions. Then with these evolving parameters, the spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on streamflow were quantified, and qualitative analysis was conducted to further explore how LULC changes affect the streamflow from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism. Results indicate the following: 1) evolving parameter calibration is not only effective but necessary to ensure the validity of the model when dealing with significant changes in underlying surfaces due to human activities. 2) compared to the baseline period, the streamflow in wet seasons increased in the 1990s but decreased in the 2000s. While at yearly and dry seasonal scales, the streamflow decreased in both two decades; 3) the expansion of cropland is the major contributor to the reduction of surface water component, thus causing the decline in streamflow at yearly and dry seasonal scales. While compared to the 1990s, the expansions of woodland in the middle stream and grassland in the downstream are the main stressors that increased the soil water component, thus leading to the more decline of the streamflow in the 2000s.

  10. RESPONSE OF LANDUSE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF WAY BETUNG WATERSHED - LAMPUNG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaenal Mubarok

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Change in landuse caused by a population increase from 114,973 people in 2007 to 134,792 people in 2012 (14.70% increased has influenced the hydrological characteristics of Way Betung watershed. The Soil and Water Assesment Tools (SWAT hydrological model could predict the hydrological characteristics influenced by the change in landuse. The aims of this study were: 1 to assess the impact of landuse change on hydrological characteristics; and, 2 to recommend the best landuse of Way Betung Watershed.The SWAT model was applied to simulate the change of landuse in Way Betung watershed. The effects of landuse change on the hydrological characteristics of Way Betung Watershed in 2001, 2006, and 2010 showed  the water yield of 874.66, 1047.70, and 774.04 mm respectively. The coefficient of surface runoff (C for those three years were 0.16, 0.31, and 0.23, whereas the coeficient of river regime were 30.65, 66.25, and 53.57 respectively. The application of agrotechnology on agricultural land and in line with the functions of forest area (scenario 4 gave the best response towards hydrological characteristics in the form of 709.69 mm of water yield with C being 0.14, whereas the coeficient of river regime value was 3.66. 

  11. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mondal

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  12. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

  13. Hydrological impacts of land use change in three diverse South African catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, Michele L.; Schulze, Roland E.; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryIn order to meet society's needs for water, food, fuel and fibre, the earth's natural land cover and land use have been significantly changed. These changes have impacted on the hydrological responses and thus available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. The degree of anthropogenic modification of the land cover, the intensity of the land use changes and location of land uses within a catchment determines the extent to which land uses influences hydrological response of a catchment. The objective of the study was to improve understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological response and land use to aid in water resources planning. To achieve this, a hydrological model, viz. the ACRU agrohydrological model, which adequately represents hydrological processes and is sensitive to land use changes, was used to generate hydrological responses from three diverse, complex and operational South African catchments under both current land use and a baseline land cover. The selected catchments vary with respect to both land use and climate. The semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, whereas in the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards. The sub-humid Mgeni catchment is dominated by commercial plantation forestry in the upper reaches, commercial sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, with the lower reaches dominated by urban areas. The hydrological responses of the selected catchments to land use change were complex. Results showed that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the mean annual rainfall of the catchment. Furthermore

  14. Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

    2006-01-01

    A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

  15. Water and chemical budgets in an urbanized river system under various hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brion, Natacha; Carbonnel, Vincent; Elskens, Marc; Claeys, Philippe; Verbanck, Michel A.

    2017-04-01

    Since historical times, riversides are preferential settlement places for human life and activities, ultimately leading to the development of Cities. Available water resources are not only essential to ensure human's vital functions, they are also used for the production of food, goods, and energy, as transport routes and as evacuation ways for domestic and industrial waste products. All these activities profoundly modify natural water circulation as well as water quality, with increased hydrological risks (floods, droughts,…) and chemical hazards (untreated sewage releases, industrial pollution,…) as consequence. An extreme example of strongly modified river system is the river Zenne crossing the city of Brussels. In and around the city, the river together with its connected navigation canal, determine a small vertical urbanized area (800 km2) combining extreme land-use landscapes. While the southern upstream part of this area lies in a region of intensive agricultural activities, the central part is occupied by a dense cityscape including a forested area, and the downstream part is mainly under industrial influence. In this context, we established a box-model representation of water and selected polluting chemicals (N and P, biological oxygen demand, and a selection of metals, pesticides and PAHs) budgets for the studied area under variable hydrological conditions. We first have identified the general distribution of water and pollutant tracers in the various background sources of the system: waters in streams located in the very upstream parts of the catchment, and untreated and treated sewage. Secondly we have assessed the distribution of water flows, and pollutant tracer concentrations at the boundaries of the studied water systems for different stable hydrological conditions and during flood events. Finally we will discuss water budgets and pollution tracer budgets for a yearly average hydrological situation and for dry and wet weather conditions in order

  16. Response of terrestrial hydrology to climate and permafrost change for the 21st century as simulated by JSBACH offline experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Tanja; Hagemann, Stefan; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Permafrost (PF) or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. In terms of hydrology, changes in permafrost characteristics may lead to contradicting effects. E.g., observations show that the deepening of the Active Layer (AL) can both decrease and increase soil moisture, depending on the specific conditions. For the investigation of hydrological changes in response to climatic and thus PF change, it is therefore necessary to use a model. To address this response of the terrestrial hydrology to projected changes for the 21st century, the global land surface model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, was used to simulate several future climate scenarios. JSBACH recently has been equipped with important physical PF processes, such as the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In order to identify hydrological impacts originating solely in the physical forcing, experiments were conducted in an offline mode and with fixed vegetation cover. Feedback mechanisms, e.g. via the carbon cycle, were thus excluded. The uncertainty range arising through different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as through different

  17. Effects of climate change on hydrology, water resources, and soil [Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Muir; Charles H. Luce; Joseph T. Gurrieri; Marek Matyjasik; Jeffrey L. Bruggink; Stacey L. Weems; James C. Hurja; David B. Marr; Sarah D. Leahy

    2018-01-01

    Water is critical to life, and many of the effects of climate change on ecosystems are mediated through altered hydrology. Snow accumulation and melt are consistently cited as the most important changes to water in the western United States (Barnett et al. 2005; Service 2004), affecting when water will be available for forests, fish, and people. Changes in summer...

  18. HESS Opinions: A conceptual framework for assessing socio-hydrological resilience under change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Feng; Clark, Julian; Karpouzoglou, Timothy; Dewulf, Art; Buytaert, Wouter; Hannah, David

    2017-07-01

    facilitate the design of bespoke strategies for enhancing resilience in the socio-hydrological context. The resilience canvas is constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as two axes. At the corners of the resulting two-dimensional space are four quadrants which we conceptualise as representing resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, we recommend that efforts now be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. In sum, the novel framework proposed here clarifies the ambiguity inherent in socio-hydrological resilience, and provides a viable basis for further theoretical and practical development.

  19. Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Its Response to Hydrological Characteristics in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Kai; Huang, Xiaorong; Guo, Biying; Wang, Yanqiu; Gao, Linyun

    2018-06-01

    Land use changes alter the hydrological characteristics of the land surface, and have significant impacts on hydrological cycle and water balance, the analysis of complex effects on natural systems has become one of the main concerns. In this study, we generated the land use conversion matrixes using ArcGIS and selected several landscape indexes (contagion index, CONTAG, Shannon's diversity index, SHDI, etc.) to evaluate the impact of land use/cover changes on hydrological process in the upper reaches of Minjiang River. We also used a statistical regression model which was established based on hydrology and precipitation data during the period of 1959-2008 to simulate the impacts of different land use conditions on rainfall and runoff in different periods. Our results showed that the simulated annual mean flow from 1985 to 1995 and 1995 to 2008 are 9.19 and 1.04 m3 s-1 lower than the measured values, respectively, which implied that the ecological protection measures should be strengthened in the study area. Our study could provide a scientific basis for water resource management and proper land use planning of upper reaches of Minjiang River.

  20. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  1. Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

  2. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose an approach to reduce a comprehensive set of 186 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland to fewer response types to climate change and to name sensitive regions as well as catchment characteristics that govern hydrological change. We classified the hydrological responses of our study catchments through an agglomerative-hierarchical cluster analysis, and we related the dominant explanatory variables, i.e. the determining catchment properties and climate change signals, to the catchments' hydrological responses by means of redundancy analysis. All clusters except for one exhibit clearly decreasing summer runoff and increasing winter runoff. This seasonal shift was observed for the near future period (2025–2046 but is particularly obvious in the far future period (2074–2095. Within a certain elevation range (between 1000 and 2500 m a.s.l., the hydrological change is basically a function of elevation, because the latter governs the dominant hydro-climatological processes associated with temperature, e.g. the ratio of liquid to solid precipitation and snow melt processes. For catchments below the stated range, hydrological change is mainly a function of precipitation change, which is not as pronounced as the temperature signal is. Future impact studies in Switzerland can be conducted on a reduced sample of catchments representing the sensitive regions or covering a range of altitudes.

  3. Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

    2018-01-01

    Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

  4. Changes of hydrological conditions in the Curonian Lagoon

    OpenAIRE

    Dailidienė, Inga

    2007-01-01

    Klimato pokyčių studijos yra susijusios su geofizinių procesų, įskaitant hidrologinių ir meteorologinių elementų kaitą, analize. Pagrindinis šios studijos tikslas yra ištirti ilgalaikių hidrogeologinių sąlygų pokyčių Kuršių mariose ypatumus. Remiantis 1961–2005 m. sukauptais matavimų ir stebėjimų duomenimis, buvo atlikti Kuršių marių hidrologinio režimo ypatumų tyrimai, kurie padėtų sukurti prielaidas racionalesniam šio vandens telkinio tvarkymui ir išsaugojimui, parengti išankstinius gamtosa...

  5. Uncertainty in projected point precipitation extremes for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Uytven, Els; Willems, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Current trends in the hydro-meteorological variables indicate the potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes. Therefore, they trigger an increased importance climate adaptation strategies in water management. The impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological and hydrological extremes is, however, highly uncertain. This is due to uncertainties introduced by the climate models, the internal variability inherent to the climate system, the greenhouse gas scenarios and the statistical downscaling methods. In view of the need to define sustainable climate adaptation strategies, there is a need to assess these uncertainties. This is commonly done by means of ensemble approaches. Because more and more climate models and statistical downscaling methods become available, there is a need to facilitate the climate impact and uncertainty analysis. A Climate Perturbation Tool has been developed for that purpose, which combines a set of statistical downscaling methods including weather typing, weather generator, transfer function and advanced perturbation based approaches. By use of an interactive interface, climate impact modelers can apply these statistical downscaling methods in a semi-automatic way to an ensemble of climate model runs. The tool is applicable to any region, but has been demonstrated so far to cases in Belgium, Suriname, Vietnam and Bangladesh. Time series representing future local-scale precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) conditions were obtained, starting from time series of historical observations. Uncertainties on the future meteorological conditions are represented in two different ways: through an ensemble of time series, and a reduced set of synthetic scenarios. The both aim to span the full uncertainty range as assessed from the ensemble of climate model runs and downscaling methods. For Belgium, for instance, use was made of 100-year time series of 10-minutes precipitation observations and daily

  6. A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

    2017-01-01

    For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

  7. Understanding The Individual Impacts Of Human Interventions And Climate Change On Hydrologic Variables In India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, T.; Chhabra, S., Jr.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    We have quantified the historical climate change and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change impacts on the hydrologic variables of Indian subcontinent by using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) mesoscale model at 0.5° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution. The results indicate that the climate change in India has predominating effects on the basic water balance components such as water yield, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. This analysis is with the assumption of naturalised hydrologic cycle, i.e., the impacts of human interventions like construction of controlled (primarily dams, diversions and reservoirs) and water withdrawals structures are not taken into account. The assumption is unrealistic since there are numerous anthropogenic disturbances which result in large changes on vegetation composition and distribution patterns. These activities can directly or indirectly influence the dynamics of water cycle; subsequently affecting the hydrologic processes like plant transpiration, infiltration, evaporation, runoff and sublimation. Here, we have quantified the human interventions by using the reservoir and irrigation module of VIC model which incorporates the irrigation schemes, reservoir characteristics and water withdrawals. The impact of human interventions on hydrologic variables in many grids are found more predominant than climate change and might be detrimental to water resources at regional level. This spatial pattern of impacts will facilitate water manager and planners to design and station hydrologic structures for a sustainable water resources management.

  8. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  9. Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.

    2017-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate

  10. High-resolution numerical modeling of meteorological and hydrological conditions during May 2014 floods in Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Pejanovic, Goran; Nickovic, Slobodan; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Rajkovic, Borivoj; Djordjevic, Marija

    2015-04-01

    -scale precipitation patterns. Hydrological component of the system is the Hydrology Prediction Model HYPROM which calculates overland flow and river discharge using full dynamic governing equations integrated over a regular grid. This paper was realized as a part of the projects "Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation" (43007) and "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Serbia" (37005) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for the period 2011-2015.

  11. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  12. Modelling hydrological conditions in the maritime forest region of south-western Nova Scotia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanni, Shelagh; Keys, Kevin; Meng, Fan-Rui; Yin, Xiwei; Clair, Tom; Arp, Paul A.

    2000-02-01

    Hydrological processes and conditions were quantified for the Mersey River Basin (two basins: one exiting below Mill Falls, and one exiting below George Lake), the Roger's Brook Basin, Moosepit Brook, and for other selected locations at and near Kejimkujik National Park in Nova Scotia, Canada, from 1967 to 1990. Addressed variables included precipitation (rain, snow, fog), air temperature, stream discharge, snowpack accumulations, throughfall, soil and subsoil moisture, soil temperature and soil frost, at a monthly resolution. It was found that monthly per hectare stream discharge was essentially independent of catchment area from interception and soil percolation.

  13. Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2014-05-01

    Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

  14. Hydrological response to climate change in a glaciated catchment in the Himalayas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Immerzeel, W.W.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Konz, M.; Shresta, A.B.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of climate change impact on the hydrology of high altitude glacierized catchments in the Himalayas is complex due to the high variability in climate, lack of data, large uncertainties in climate change projection and uncertainty about the response of glaciers. Therefore a high

  15. Modeling of Andean Páramo Ecosystems’ Hydrological Response to Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Flores-López

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the Peruvian Andes, water infiltration from tropical wetlands, called páramo, generates headwaters for downstream rivers. The hydrological processes of these wetlands are not well understood within the larger hydrological system, impeding efforts to mitigate the rapid environmental changes anticipated due to regional population growth and climate change. This study constructed and calibrated a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP system model for ecosystems with sparse data in the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed in the Piura region of Peru. The model simulates the impacts of possible changes within the hydrological system to assist decision-makers in strategizing about sustainable development for the region, especially the páramo. Using scenarios designed with stakeholder participation, the WEAP model for the Quiroz-Chipillico watershed examines river headflow production, reservoir water levels, and demand coverage for downstream users when the upstream páramo and its environs are subjected to changes of temperature, precipitation, and land use. The model reveals that while temperature and precipitation changes can be expected to impact páramo water production, the anticipated land use changes will be a primary driver of hydrological responses in the páramo and subsequent changes downstream.

  16. Resilience canvas: a heuristic tool for socio-hydrological management under change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, F.; Clark, J.; Buytaert, W.; Karpouzoglou, T.; Dewulf, A.; Hannah, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    Although resilience thinking has been gaining interest in managing socio-hydrological systems in a changing world, there are still gaps between the resilience theory and its applications in policy making and management. This research introduces the notion of the "resilience canvas" as a heuristic tool to support social-hydrological water management under change. We argue that resilience is a set of three systematic properties including absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities. For socio-hydrological systems, each capacity type arises from different sources and can be managed in different ways. The "resilience canvas" can be constructed by combining absorptive and adaptive capacities as the x and y axes. At the corners of the two-dimensional space, four resulting quadrates are found, including most resilient, vulnerable, susceptible, and resistant system states. The resilience canvas can be used not only to understand the development trajectories of socio-hydrological systems at different scales from single river basin to global level, but also to design bespoke interventions and strategies to maintain or enhance resilience. To address projected change-induced uncertainties, this research recommends that future efforts should be focused on shifting socio-hydrological systems from resistant towards resilient status. This implies that interventions including ecosystem restoration, technological innovations and developments in institutional arrangements and management practices, such as polycentric governance and public participation, may play important roles to address future uncertainties and enhance resilience.

  17. Hydrologic controls on DOC, As and Pb export from a polluted peatland - the importance of heavy rain events, antecedent moisture conditions and hydrological connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder, T.; Biester, H.

    2015-08-01

    Bogs can store large amounts of lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) from atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic emissions. Pb and As are exported along with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from these organic-rich systems, but it is not yet clear which hydrological (pre)conditions favor their export. This study combines a 1-year monitoring of precipitation, bog water level and pore water concentration changes with bog discharge and DOC, iron, As and Pb stream concentrations. From these data, annual DOC, As, and Pb exports were calculated. Concentrations ranged from 5 to 30 mg L-1 for DOC, 0.2 to 1.9 μg L-1 for As, and 1.3 to 12 μg L-1 for Pb, with highest concentrations in late summer. As and Pb concentrations significantly correlated with DOC concentrations. Fluxes depended strongly on discharge, as 40 % of As and 43 % of Pb were exported during 10 % of the time with the highest discharge, pointing out the over-proportional contribution of short-time, high-discharge events to annual As, Pb and DOC export. Exponential increase in element export from the bog is explained by connection of additional DOC, As and Pb pools in the acrotelm during water table rise, which is most pronounced after drought. Pb, As and DOC concentrations in pore water provide evidence of an increase in the soluble Pb pool as soon as the peat layer becomes hydrologically connected, while DOC and As peak concentrations in runoff lag behind in comparison to Pb. Our data indicate a distinct bog-specific discharge threshold of 8 L s-1, which is thought to depend mainly on the bogs size and drainage conditions. Above this threshold, element concentrations do not further increase and discharge becomes diluted. Combining pore water and discharge data shows that As and Pb exports are dependent on not only the amount of precipitation and discharge but also on the frequency and depth of water table fluctuations. Comparing the annual bog As and Pb export with element inventories indicates that As is much more

  18. Organic priority substances and microbial processes in river sediments subject to contrasting hydrological conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoppini, Annamaria; Ademollo, Nicoletta; Amalfitano, Stefano; Casella, Patrizia; Patrolecco, Luisa; Polesello, Stefano

    2014-06-15

    Flood and drought events of higher intensity and frequency are expected to increase in arid and semi-arid regions, in which temporary rivers represent both a water resource and an aquatic ecosystem to be preserved. In this study, we explored the variation of two classes of hazardous substances (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Nonylphenols) and the functioning of the microbial community in river sediments subject to hydrological fluctuations (Candelaro river basin, Italy). Overall, the concentration of pollutants (∑PAHs range 8-275ngg(-1); ∑NPs range 299-4858ngg(-1)) suggests a moderate degree of contamination. The conditions in which the sediments were tested, flow (high/low) and no flow (wet/dry/arid), were associated to significant differences in the chemical and microbial properties. The total organic carbon contribution decreased together with the stream flow reduction, while the contribution of C-PAHs and C-NPs tended to increase. NPs were relatively more concentrated in sediments under high flow, while the more hydrophobic PAHs accumulated under low and no flow conditions. Passing from high to no flow conditions, a gradual reduction of microbial processes was observed, to reach the lowest specific bacterial carbon production rates (0.06fmolCh(-1)cell(-1)), extracellular enzyme activities, and the highest doubling time (40h) in arid sediments. In conclusion, different scenarios for the mobilization of pollutants and microbial processes can be identified under contrasting hydrological conditions: (i) the mobilization of pollutants under high flow and a relatively higher probability for biodegradation; (ii) the accumulation of pollutants during low flow and lower probability for biodegradation; (iii) the drastic reduction of pollutant concentrations under dry and arid conditions, probably independently from the microbial activity (abiotic processes). Our findings let us infer that a multiple approach has to be considered for an appropriate water

  19. Implications of climate change on hydrological extremes in the Blue Nile basin: A review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meron Teferi Taye

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The review illustrates some discrepancy among research outputs. For the historical context, this is partially related to the period and length of data analyzed and the failure to consider the influence of multi-decadal oscillations. Consequently, we show that annual cycle of Blue Nile flow has not changed in the past five decades. For the future context, discrepancy is partially attributable to the various and differing climate and hydrological models included and the downscaling techniques applied. The need to prudently consider sources of uncertainty and potential causes of bias in historical trend and climate change impact research is highlighted.

  20. Modelling the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water quality in a mediterranean limno-reservoir

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina-Navarro, Euginio; Trolle, Dennis; Martinez-Pérez, Silvia

    Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...... and recreational purposes. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. All the scenarios predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions...

  1. Quantifying the effects of climate and post-fire landscape change on hydrologic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steimke, A.; Han, B.; Brandt, J.; Som Castellano, R.; Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonally snow-dominated, forested mountain watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as the climate warms. Changes in vegetation also affect the runoff response of watersheds. The largest driver of vegetation change in many mountainous regions is wildfire, whose occurrence is affected by both climate and land management decisions. Here, we quantify how direct (i.e. changes in precipitation and temperature) and indirect (i.e. changing fire regimes) effects of climate change influence hydrologic parameters such as dates of peak streamflow, annual discharge, and snowpack levels. We used the Boise River Basin, ID as a model laboratory to calculate the relative magnitude of change stemming from direct and indirect effects of climate change. This basin is relevant to study as it is well-instrumented and major drainages have experienced burning at different spatial and temporal intervals, aiding in model calibration. We built a hydrology-based integrated model of the region using a multiagent simulation framework, Envision. We used a modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model and calibrated it to historic streamflow and snowpack observations. We combined a diverse set of climate projections with wildfire scenarios (low vs. high) representing two distinct intervals in the regional historic fire record. In fire simulations, we altered land cover coefficients to reflect a burned state post-fire, which decreased overall evapotranspiration rates and increased water yields. However, direct climate effects had a larger signal on annual variations of hydrologic parameters. By comparing and analyzing scenario outputs, we identified links and sensitivities between land cover and regional hydrology in the context of a changing climate, with potential implications for local land and water managers. In future

  2. Climate change impacts utilizing regional models for agriculture, hydrology and natural ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Smith, E.; Stack, D. H.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts the entire Earth but with crucial and often catastrophic impacts at local and regional levels. Extreme phenomena such as fires, dust storms, droughts and other natural hazards present immediate risks and challenges. Such phenomena will become more extreme as climate change and anthropogenic activities accelerate in the future. We describe a major project funded by NIFA (Grant # 2011-67004-30224), under the joint NSF-DOE-USDA Earth System Models (EaSM) program, to investigate the impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural and natural (i.e. rangeland) ecosystems in the Southwest USA using a combination of historical and present observations together with climate, and ecosystem models, both in hind-cast and forecast modes. The applicability of the methodology to other regions is relevant (for similar geographic regions as well as other parts of the world with different agriculture and ecosystems) and should advance the state of knowledge for regional impacts of climate change. A combination of multi-model global climate projections from the decadal predictability simulations, to downscale dynamically these projections using three regional climate models, combined with remote sensing MODIS and other data, in order to obtain high-resolution climate data that can be used with hydrological and ecosystem models for impacts analysis, is described in this presentation. Such analysis is needed to assess the future risks and potential impacts of projected changes on these natural and managed ecosystems. The results from our analysis can be used by scientists to assist extended communities to determine agricultural coping strategies, and is, therefore, of interest to wide communities of stakeholders. In future work we will be including surface hydrologic modeling and water resources, extend modeling to higher resolutions and include significantly more crops and geographical regions with different weather and climate conditions

  3. Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, N.; Cayan, D.R.

    2004-01-01

    California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300-2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300-2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply.

  4. Spatial characterization of long-term hydrological change in the Arkavathy watershed adjacent to Bangalore, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penny, Gopal; Srinivasan, Veena; Dronova, Iryna; Lele, Sharachchandra; Thompson, Sally

    2018-01-01

    The complexity and heterogeneity of human water use over large spatial areas and decadal timescales can impede the understanding of hydrological change, particularly in regions with sparse monitoring of the water cycle. In the Arkavathy watershed in southern India, surface water inflows to major reservoirs decreased over a 40-year period during which urbanization, groundwater depletion, modification of the river network, and changes in agricultural practices also occurred. These multiple, interacting drivers combined with limited hydrological monitoring make attribution of the causes of diminishing water resources in the watershed challenging and impede effective policy responses. To mitigate these challenges, we developed a novel, spatially distributed dataset to understand hydrological change by characterizing the residual trends in surface water extent that remain after controlling for precipitation variations and comparing the trends with historical land use maps to assess human drivers of change. Using an automated classification approach with subpixel unmixing, we classified water extent in nearly 1700 man-made lakes, or tanks, in Landsat images from 1973 to 2010. The classification results compared well with a reference dataset of water extent of tanks (R2 = 0.95). We modeled the water extent of 42 clusters of tanks in a multiple regression on simple hydrological covariates (including precipitation) and time. Inter-annual variability in precipitation accounted for 63 % of the predicted variability in water extent. However, precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends in any part of the watershed. After controlling for precipitation variability, we found statistically significant temporal trends in water extent, both positive and negative, in 13 of the clusters. Based on a water balance argument, we inferred that these trends likely reflect a non-stationary relationship between precipitation and watershed runoff. Independently of

  5. Spatial characterization of long-term hydrological change in the Arkavathy watershed adjacent to Bangalore, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Penny

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The complexity and heterogeneity of human water use over large spatial areas and decadal timescales can impede the understanding of hydrological change, particularly in regions with sparse monitoring of the water cycle. In the Arkavathy watershed in southern India, surface water inflows to major reservoirs decreased over a 40-year period during which urbanization, groundwater depletion, modification of the river network, and changes in agricultural practices also occurred. These multiple, interacting drivers combined with limited hydrological monitoring make attribution of the causes of diminishing water resources in the watershed challenging and impede effective policy responses. To mitigate these challenges, we developed a novel, spatially distributed dataset to understand hydrological change by characterizing the residual trends in surface water extent that remain after controlling for precipitation variations and comparing the trends with historical land use maps to assess human drivers of change. Using an automated classification approach with subpixel unmixing, we classified water extent in nearly 1700 man-made lakes, or tanks, in Landsat images from 1973 to 2010. The classification results compared well with a reference dataset of water extent of tanks (R2  =  0.95. We modeled the water extent of 42 clusters of tanks in a multiple regression on simple hydrological covariates (including precipitation and time. Inter-annual variability in precipitation accounted for 63 % of the predicted variability in water extent. However, precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends in any part of the watershed. After controlling for precipitation variability, we found statistically significant temporal trends in water extent, both positive and negative, in 13 of the clusters. Based on a water balance argument, we inferred that these trends likely reflect a non-stationary relationship between precipitation and watershed

  6. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  7. An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shulei; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Dawen

    2018-01-01

    Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost-benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982-2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average -8.5% in 1990s and -11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large-scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

  8. Occurrence and modeling of pharmaceuticals on a sewage-impacted Mediterranean river and their dynamics under different hydrological conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osorio, Victoria [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona (Spain); Marce, Rafael [Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Scientific and Technological Park of the University of Girona, Emili Grahit 101, Girona (Spain); Perez, Sandra [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona (Spain); Ginebreda, Antoni, E-mail: agmqam@idaea.csic.es [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona (Spain); Cortina, Jose Luis [Cetaqua, Water Technology Centre, UPC North Campus, Paseo de los Tilos, 3, Barcelona (Spain); Barcelo, Damia [IDAEA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, Barcelona (Spain); Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), Scientific and Technological Park of the University of Girona, Emili Grahit 101, Girona (Spain)

    2012-12-01

    The occurrence of 73 representative pharmacologically active compounds (PhACs) was assessed in a sewage-impacted section of the Llobregat River (NE Catalonia, Spain). This Mediterranean river is characterized by flow rate fluctuations strongly influenced by seasonal rainfall. River flow variations increase the potential environmental risk posed by organic micro-pollutants as their concentrations may increase substantially under low flow conditions. Little is known about the transport behavior of emerging contaminants in surface waters once they are discharged from waste water treatment plants (WWTP) into rivers. This research aimed to study the presence and fate of emerging contaminants under different hydrological conditions by sampling two different sites along the river in different seasons. The highest levels of pharmaceuticals were determined during cold and dry periods. The impact of the flow changes on the concentration of the pharmaceuticals in the river was assessed with the relative sensitive coefficients. Due to expected dilution effects, the response of pharmaceuticals to river flow was negative. Only in a few cases, positive relationships between drug concentrations and flow were detected, suggesting an important role of other hydrological phenomena like sediment re-suspension as well as the source of pollutants. To evaluate the role of other factors influencing PhAC concentrations, a plug-flow model was applied to obtain disappearance constants 'k' for a set of selected compounds. Erythromycin presented k values of - 0.15 h{sup -1} in both sites being the compound more efficiently removed from the water column. The k values for ibuprofen, furosemide, enrofloxacin, enalapril, acetaminophen, diclofenac and Ketoprofen were between - 0.04 and - 0.10 h{sup -1} showing less disappearance than erythromycin in the water column. However, other compounds presented k values < 0.06, which suggested conservative behavior of these compounds in the water

  9. Occurrence and modeling of pharmaceuticals on a sewage-impacted Mediterranean river and their dynamics under different hydrological conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osorio, Victoria; Marcé, Rafael; Pérez, Sandra; Ginebreda, Antoni; Cortina, Jose Luís; Barceló, Damià

    2012-01-01

    The occurrence of 73 representative pharmacologically active compounds (PhACs) was assessed in a sewage-impacted section of the Llobregat River (NE Catalonia, Spain). This Mediterranean river is characterized by flow rate fluctuations strongly influenced by seasonal rainfall. River flow variations increase the potential environmental risk posed by organic micro-pollutants as their concentrations may increase substantially under low flow conditions. Little is known about the transport behavior of emerging contaminants in surface waters once they are discharged from waste water treatment plants (WWTP) into rivers. This research aimed to study the presence and fate of emerging contaminants under different hydrological conditions by sampling two different sites along the river in different seasons. The highest levels of pharmaceuticals were determined during cold and dry periods. The impact of the flow changes on the concentration of the pharmaceuticals in the river was assessed with the relative sensitive coefficients. Due to expected dilution effects, the response of pharmaceuticals to river flow was negative. Only in a few cases, positive relationships between drug concentrations and flow were detected, suggesting an important role of other hydrological phenomena like sediment re-suspension as well as the source of pollutants. To evaluate the role of other factors influencing PhAC concentrations, a plug-flow model was applied to obtain disappearance constants “k” for a set of selected compounds. Erythromycin presented k values of − 0.15 h −1 in both sites being the compound more efficiently removed from the water column. The k values for ibuprofen, furosemide, enrofloxacin, enalapril, acetaminophen, diclofenac and Ketoprofen were between − 0.04 and − 0.10 h −1 showing less disappearance than erythromycin in the water column. However, other compounds presented k values < 0.06, which suggested conservative behavior of these compounds in the water column

  10. Changing climatic conditions in the Upper Thames River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonovic, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    'Full text:' Many climate change impact studies have been conducted using a top-down approach. First, outputs from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered which are downscaled in a second step to the river basin scale using either a statistical/empirical or a dynamic approach. The local climatic signal that is obtained is then used as input into a hydrological model to assess the direct consequences in the basin. Problems related to this approach include: a high degree of uncertainty associated with GCM outputs; and an increase in uncertainty due to the downscaling approach. An original inverse approach is developed in this work in order to improve the understanding of the processes leading to hydrological hazards, including both flood and drought events. The developed approach starts with the analysis of existing guidelines and management practices in a river basin with respect to critical hydrological exposures that may lead to failure of the water resources system or parts thereof. This implies that vulnerable components of the river basin have to be identified together with the risk exposure. In the next step the critical hydrologic exposures (flood levels for example) are transformed into corresponding critical meteorological conditions (extreme precipitation events for example). These local weather scenarios are then be statistically linked to possible large-scale climate conditions that are available from the GCMs. The developed procedure allows for the assessment of the vulnerability of river basins with respect to climate forcing. It also provides a tool for identifying the spatial distribution of the vulnerability and risk. Vulnerability is here characterized by the incremental losses, expressed either quantitatively or qualitatively, due to a change in the probability and magnitude of hazard events driven by climatic forcing. Vulnerability is seen as the basis for risk mitigation measures for hydrologic extremes at the basin level. The

  11. Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx

  12. Towards a conceptual model of hydrological change on an abandoned cutover bog, Quebec

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Seters, Tim E.; Price, Jonathan S.

    2002-07-01

    Cutover bogs do not return to functional peatland ecosystems after abandonment because re-establishment of peat-forming mosses is poor. This paper presents a conceptual model of bog disturbance caused by peat harvesting (1942-1972), and the hydrological evolution that occurred after abandonment (1973-1998). Two adjacent bogs of similar size and origin, one harvested and the other essentially undisturbed, provide the basis for understanding what changes occurred. The model is based on historical trends evident from previous surveys of land-use, bog ecology and resource mapping; and from recent hydrological and ecological data that characterize the current condition. Water balance data and historical information suggest that runoff increased and evapotranspiration decreased following drainage, but tended towards pre-disturbance levels following abandonment, as vegetation recolonized the surface and drainage became less efficient over time. Dewatering of soil pores after drainage caused shrinkage and oxidation of the peat and surface subsidence of approximately 80 cm over 57 years. Comparisons with a nearby natural bog suggest that bulk density in the upper 50 cm of cutover peat increased from 0·07 to 0·13 g cm-3, specific yield declined from 0·14 to 0·07, water table fluctuations were 67% greater, and mean saturated hydraulic conductivity declined from 4·1 × 10-5 to 1·3 × 10-5 cm s-1. More than 25 years after abandonment, Sphagnum mosses were distributed over broad areas but covered less than 15% of the surface. Areas with good Sphagnum regeneration (>10% cover) were strongly correlated with high water tables (mean -22 cm), especially in zones of seasonal groundwater discharge, artefacts of the extraction history. Forest cover expanded from 5 to 20% of the study area following abandonment. The effect of forest growth (transpiration and interception) and drainage on lowering water levels eventually will be countered by slower water movement through the

  13. Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

  14. Water System Adaptation to Hydrological Changes: Module 1, Introduction to Water System Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contemporary water management requires resilience, the ability to meet ever increasing water needs, and capacity to adapt to abrupt or transient changes in water quality and availability. For this purpose, effective adaptation to extreme hydrological events (e.g. intense storms, ...

  15. Climate change impacts on freshwater wetland hydrology and vegetation cover cycling along a regional aridity gradient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global mean temperature may increase up to 6°C by the end of this century and together with precipitation change may steepen regional aridity gradients, impacting the hydrology, productivity, diversity, and ecosystem goods and services from freshwater wetlands, where the water balance is tightly cou...

  16. Sensitivity of pine flatwoods hydrology to climate change and forest management in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Nicholas B. Comerford

    2009-01-01

    Pine flatwoods (a mixture of cypress wetlands and managed pine uplands) is an important ecosystem in the southeastern U.S. However, long-term hydrologic impacts of forest management and climate change on this heterogeneous landscape are not well understood. Therefore, this study examined the sensitivity of cypress-pine flatwoods...

  17. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosmans, J.H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.; Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or

  18. Impact of climate change on the streamflow hydrology of the Yangtze River in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuotuo River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area, where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six global climate models (GCMs) under three Respectively ...

  19. Projected impact of climate change on hydrological regimes in the Philippines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tolentino, Pamela Louise M.; Poortinga, Ate; Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces

  20. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  1. Remote Sensing of Hydrological Changes in Tian-e-Zhou Oxbow Lake, an Ungauged Area of the Yangtze River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological pattern changes have a great influence on the wetland environment. However, some important wetland areas often lack historical observations due to economic and physical conditions. The Tian-e-Zhou oxbow lake wetland is an important habitat for two endangered species and also has very little historical hydrological data. Remote sensing images can be used to explore the historical water area fluctuation of lakes. In addition, remote sensing can also be used to obtain historical water levels based on the water boundary elevation integrated with a topographic data (WBET method or the level-surface area relationship curve (LRC method. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the derived results, both methods were introduced in the extraction of the water level of Tian-e-Zhou during 1992–2015. The results reveal that the hydrological regime of the oxbow lake has experienced a significant change after the Shatanzi Levee construction in 1998. With the impact of the levee, the mean annual water surface area of the lake was reduced by 5.8 km2 during the flood season, but, during the non-flood season, it was increased by 1.35 km2. For the same period, the water level of the lake during the flood season also showed a 1.47 m (WBET method or 3.21 m (LRC method decrease. The mean annual water level increased by 1.12 m (WBET method or 0.75 m (LRC method. Both results had a good accuracy with RMSE (root-mean-square errors of less than 0.4 m. Furthermore, the water level differences between the Yangtze River channel and the oxbow lake increased by at least 0.5 m. It is found that the hydrological pattern of the oxbow lake changed significantly after the levee construction, which could bring some disadvantages to the habitats of the two endangered species.

  2. Do invasive riparian Tamarix alter hydrology of riparian areas of arid and semi-arid regions under climate change scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, M. P.; Acharya, K.; Chen, L.

    2012-12-01

    Competitiveness of riparian invasive species, Tamarix, in arid and semi-arid riparian areas of the southwestern United States under climate change scenario (SRES A2) was investigated. Tamarix has been replacing native vegetation along the riparian corridors of these areas for the past several decades and is thought to alter water balance. Changes in depth to groundwater, soil moisture distribution and flood frequency are critical in survival and growth of a facultative phreatophyte such as Tamarix. In this study, a fully coupled 2d surface flow and 3d subsurface flow hydrologic model, HydroGeoSphere, was used to simulate surface-subsurface hydrology of the lower Virgin River basin (4500 sq. km), located in Nevada, Utah and Arizona. The hydrologic model results, depth to groundwater and soil saturation, were then applied to the species distribution model, Maxent, along with other bioclimatic parameters to asses future Tamarix distribution probability. Simulations were made for the climate scenarios of the end of 21st centry conditions. Depth to groundwater is found to be the most important predictor variable to the Maxent model. Future Tamarix distribution range is not uniform across the basin. It is likely to decrease at lower elevations and increase in some higher elevation areas.

  3. Changes in Soil Quality and Hydrological Connectivity Caused by the Abandonment of Terraces in a Mediterranean Burned Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleix Calsamiglia

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires and agricultural activities are relevant factors affecting soil quality, hydrological cycle and sedimentary dynamics. Land abandonment leads to afforestation, which increases fire risk and land degradation. However, no studies have yet evaluated the effect of combining the two factors, which occur frequently in Mediterranean ecosystems. This study assessed the changes in soil quality caused by the abandonment of terraces in two microcatchments (<2.5 ha affected distinctly by wildfires (once and twice burned and in an unburned control microcatchment by analyzing soil quality parameters, biochemical indices and spatial patterns of hydrological and sediment connectivity. Soil samples were collected in thirty-six plots (25 m2 representing terraced and non-terraced areas within these microcatchments. Unburned non-terraced plots had higher organic matter content and higher microbiological and enzymatic activities than other plots. Plots in abandoned terraces had lower soil quality indices, regardless of the fire effect. Land abandonment induced changes in the spatial patterns of hydrological connectivity, leading to concentrated runoff, enhanced erosion and soil degradation. Fire also negatively affected soil quality in both terraced and non-terraced plots. However, microbiological communities had different positive post-fire recovery strategies (growth and activity, depending on the previous soil conditions and land uses, which is indicative of the resilience of Mediterranean soil ecosystems.

  4. The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Ronald G.; Farr, Tom G.; Feynmann, Joan; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Paillou, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

  5. Influence of hydrological conditions on the Escherichia coli population structure in the water of a creek on a rural watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratajczak Mehdy

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Escherichia coli is a commensal bacterium of the gastro-intestinal tract of human and vertebrate animals, although the aquatic environment could be a secondary habitat. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of hydrological conditions on the structure of the E. coli population in the water of a creek on a small rural watershed in France composed of pasture and with human occupation. Results It became apparent, after studying the distribution in the four main E. coli phylo-groups (A, B1, B2, D, the presence of the hly (hemolysin gene and the antibiotic resistance pattern, that the E. coli population structure was modified not only by the hydrological conditions (dry versus wet periods, rainfall events, but also by how the watershed was used (presence or absence of cattle. Isolates of the B1 phylo-group devoid of hly and sensitive to antibiotics were particularly abundant during the dry period. During the wet period and the rainfall events, contamination from human sources was predominantly characterized by strains of the A phylo-group, whereas contamination by cattle mainly involved B1 phylo-group strains resistant to antibiotics and exhibiting hly. As E. coli B1 was the main phylo-group isolated in water, the diversity of 112 E. coli B1 isolates was further investigated by studying uidA alleles (beta-D-glucuronidase, the presence of hly, the O-type, and antibiotic resistance. Among the forty epidemiolgical types (ETs identified, five E. coli B1 ETs were more abundant in slightly contaminated water. Conclusions The structure of an E. coli population in water is not stable, but depends on the hydrological conditions and on current use of the land on the watershed. In our study it was the ratio of A to B1 phylo-groups that changed. However, a set of B1 phylo-group isolates seems to be persistent in water, strengthening the hypothesis that they may correspond to specifically adapted strains.

  6. Estimating impact of rainfall change on hydrological processes in Jianfengling rainforest watershed, China using BASINS-HSPF-CAT modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang Zhou; Ying Ouyang; Yide Li; Zhijun Qiu; Matt Moran

    2017-01-01

    Climate change over the past several decades has resulted in shifting rainfall pattern and modifying rain-fall intensity, which has exacerbated hydrological processes and added the uncertainty and instability tothese processes. This study ascertained impacts of potential future rainfall change on hydrological pro-cesses at the Jianfengling (JFL) tropical mountain...

  7. Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be

  8. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  9. Appropriate hydrological modelling of climate change on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Rizzoli, A.E.; Jakeman, A.J.

    2002-01-01

    How good should a river basin model be to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding for a specific geographical area? The determination of such an appropriate model should reveal which physical processes should be incorporated and which data and mathematical process descriptions should

  10. Evaluation of potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-05-16

    May 16, 2009 ... projected along the west coast and the adjacent interior, with the possibility of a slight increase in inter-annual variability. If correct, this would ... drying, but did report an increase in inter-annual rainfall vari- ability during the 20th ... CSM projections were similar to HadCM with changes rang- ing between a ...

  11. An investigation of the mechanical and hydrologic behavior of tuff fractures under saturated conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, C.F.; Shotwell, L.R.

    1990-04-01

    The mechanical and hydrologic behavior of natural fractures in a partially welded tuff rock were investigated. Tuff cores, each containing part of the same natural fracture oriented subparallel to the core axis, were subjected a range of stress and hydraulic gradients while simultaneously monitoring changes in the fracture aperture and volumetric flow rate. The fractures were tested in three configurations: intact, mated, and offset. Fracture deformation was nonlinear over the stress range tested with permanent deformation and hysteresis occurring with each loading cycle. The offset samples had larger permanent deformation and significantly reduced normal stiffness at lower stress levels. The cubic flow law appears to be valid for the relatively undisturbed tuff fractures at the scale tested. The cubic law did not explain the observed hydraulic behavior of the offset fractures. 6 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs

  12. Sediment cores as archives of historical changes in floodplain lake hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lintern, Anna; Leahy, Paul J; Zawadzki, Atun; Gadd, Patricia; Heijnis, Henk; Jacobsen, Geraldine; Connor, Simon; Deletic, Ana; McCarthy, David T

    2016-02-15

    Anthropogenic activities are contributing to the changing hydrology of rivers, often resulting in their degradation. Understanding the drivers and nature of these changes is critical for the design and implementation of effective mitigation strategies for these systems. However, this can be hindered by gaps in historical measured flow data. This study therefore aims to use sediment cores to identify historical hydrological changes within a river catchment. Sediment cores from two floodplain lakes (billabongs) in the urbanised Yarra River catchment (Melbourne, South-East Australia) were collected and high resolution images, trends in magnetic susceptibility and trends in elemental composition through the sedimentary records were obtained. These were used to infer historical changes in river hydrology to determine both average trends in hydrology (i.e., coarse temporal resolution) as well as discrete flood layers in the sediment cores (i.e., fine temporal resolution). Through the 20th century, both billabongs became increasingly disconnected from the river, as demonstrated by the decreasing trends in magnetic susceptibility, particle size and inorganic matter in the cores. Additionally the number of discrete flood layers decreased up the cores. These reconstructed trends correlate with measured flow records of the river through the 20th century, which validates the methodology that has been used in this study. Not only does this study provide evidence on how natural catchments can be affected by land-use intensification and urbanisation, but it also introduces a general analytical framework that could be applied to other river systems to assist in the design of hydrological management strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

  14. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sapriza-Azuri

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs, which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme, as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology modelling system, to (1 characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2 assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3 develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to

  15. Climate change impact assessment on various components of the hydrological regime of the Malše river basin

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Němečková, Soňa; Slámová, Romana; Šípek, Václav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 59, č. 2 (2011), s. 131-143 ISSN 0042-790X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : climate change * hydrological modelling * hydrological cycle Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2011

  16. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  17. Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2008-05-01

    The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

  18. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A F Lutz

    Full Text Available The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

  19. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Immerzeel, W. W.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Shrestha, A. B.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members. PMID:27828994

  20. Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, A F; Immerzeel, W W; Kraaijenbrink, P D A; Shrestha, A B; Bierkens, M F P

    2016-01-01

    The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin's water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

  1. Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

    1998-09-01

    Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

  2. Understanding the Hydrologic Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed to Forest Management and Climate Change in South Carolina, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Lu; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; S. V. Harder; Steve G. McNulty

    2006-01-01

    The hydrologic processes in wetland ecosystems are not well understood. There are also great concerns and uncertainties about the hydrologic response of wetlands to forest management and climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a hydrologic model to better understand the hydrologic processes of a low relief coastal forested watershed and its responses to...

  3. Impacts of Biofuel-Induced Agricultural Land Use Changes on Watershed Hydrology and Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Z.; Zheng, H.

    2015-12-01

    The US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 has contributed to widespread changes in agricultural land uses. The impact of these land use changes on regional water resources could also be significant. Agricultural land use changes were evaluated for the Red River of the North Basin (RRNB), an international river basin shared by the US and Canada. The influence of the land use changes on spring snowmelt flooding and downstream water quality was also assessed using watershed modeling. The planting areas for corn and soybean in the basin increased by 62% and 18%, while those for spring wheat, forest, and pasture decreased by 30%, 18%, and 50%, from 2006 to 2013. Although the magnitude of spring snowmelt peak flows in the Red River did not change from pre-EISA to post-EISA, our uncertainty analysis of the normalized hydrographs revealed that the downstream streamflows had a greater variability under the post-EISA land use scenario, which may lead to greater uncertainty in predicting spring snowmelt floods in the Red River. Hydrological simulation also showed that the sediment and nutrient loads at the basin's outlet in the US and Canada border increased under the post-EISA land use scenario, on average sediment increasing by 2.6%, TP by 14.1%, nitrate nitrogen by 5.9%, and TN by 9.1%. Potential impacts of the future biofuel crop scenarios on watershed hydrology and water quality in the RRNB were also simulated through integrated economic-hydrologic modeling.

  4. Tibetan Plateau glacier and hydrological change under stratospheric aerosol injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, D.

    2017-12-01

    As an important inland freshwater resource, mountain glaciers are highly related to human life, they provide water for many large rivers and play a very important role in regional water cycles. The response of mountain glaciers to future climate change is a topic of concern especially to the many people who rely on glacier-fed rivers for purposes such as irrigation. Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection is a method of offsetting the global temperature rise from greenhouse gases. How the geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection affects the mass balance of mountain glaciers and adjacent river discharge is little understood. In this study, we use regional climate model WRF and catchment-based river model CaMa-Flood to study the impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection to Tibetan Plateau glacier mass balance and adjacent river discharge. To facilitate mountain glacier mass balance study, we improve the description of mountain glacier in the land surface scheme of WRF. The improvements include: (1) a fine mesh nested in WRF horizontal grid to match the highly non-uniform spatial distribution of the mountain glaciers, (2) revising the radiation flux at the glacier surface considering the surrounding terrain. We use the projections of five Earth system models for CMIP5 rcp45 and GeoMIP G4 scenarios to drive the WRF and CaMa-Flood models. The G4 scenario, which uses stratospheric aerosols to reduce the incoming shortwave while applying the rcp4.5 greenhouse gas forcing, starts stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection at a rate of 5 Tg per year over the period 2020-2069. The ensemble projections suggest relatively slower glacier mass loss rates and reduced river discharge at Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions under geoengineering scenario by stratospheric aerosol injection.

  5. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosling, S. N.; Taylor, R. G.; Arnell, N. W.; Todd, M. C.

    2011-01-01

    We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM) and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM). Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada), Mekong (SE Asia), Okavango (SW Africa), Rio Grande (Brazil), Xiangxi (China) and Harper's Brook (UK). A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09) is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard), SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong), Pitman (Okavango), MGB-IPH (Rio Grande), AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi) and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook). The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5) and low (Q95) monthly runoff under baseline (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1) prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2) a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%), and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff. However

  6. A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Gosling

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from two types of distributed hydrological model, a global hydrological model (GHM and catchment-scale hydrological models (CHM. Analyses are conducted for six catchments that are global in coverage and feature strong contrasts in spatial scale as well as climatic and developmental conditions. These include the Liard (Canada, Mekong (SE Asia, Okavango (SW Africa, Rio Grande (Brazil, Xiangxi (China and Harper's Brook (UK. A single GHM (Mac-PDM.09 is applied to all catchments whilst different CHMs are applied for each catchment. The CHMs include SLURP v. 12.2 (Liard, SLURP v. 12.7 (Mekong, Pitman (Okavango, MGB-IPH (Rio Grande, AV-SWAT-X 2005 (Xiangxi and Cat-PDM (Harper's Brook. The CHMs typically simulate water resource impacts based on a more explicit representation of catchment water resources than that available from the GHM and the CHMs include river routing, whereas the GHM does not. Simulations of mean annual runoff, mean monthly runoff and high (Q5 and low (Q95 monthly runoff under baseline (1961–1990 and climate change scenarios are presented. We compare the simulated runoff response of each hydrological model to (1 prescribed increases in global-mean air temperature of 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 °C relative to baseline from the UKMO HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM to explore response to different amounts of climate forcing, and (2 a prescribed increase in global-mean air temperature of 2.0 °C relative to baseline for seven GCMs to explore response to climate model structural uncertainty.

    We find that the differences in projected changes of mean annual runoff between the two types of hydrological model can be substantial for a given GCM (e.g. an absolute GHM-CHM difference in mean annual runoff percentage change for UKMO HadCM3 2 °C warming of up to 25%, and they are generally larger for indicators of high and low monthly runoff

  7. Monitoring and Assessment of Hydrological and Ecological Changes in Lake Manyas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curebal, Isa; Efe, Recep; Soykan, Abdullah; Sonmez, Suleyman

    2014-05-01

    Manyas Lake in the northwest of Turkey occupies an area of 165 square kilometers. The surface area of the lake is continuously changing due to human activities, hydrologic and climatic conditions. The objective of this study is to examine the changes in water level and the area of lake and the effects of these changes on the lake's ecosystem and human economic activities. In order to determine the changes lake level measurement data, 1/25000 scale topography maps, rainfall and temperature data and bathymetry maps were used and elevation models were made. During the study period the water level fluctuated between 14.0 and 17.8 meters, and surface area changed between 124,8 km2 and 170,6 km2 respectively. Prior to the construction of a flood barrier at the southern end of the lake in 1992 the maximum surface area of the lake was calculated at 209 km2. Lake Manyas is an important wetland on the route of migration of birds from/to Europe and Africa. 64 ha of the lake and its surroundings along with the entire National Park is a Ramsar site. Irrigated and dry farming is practiced around the lake and fishing is important economic activity. The changes in the water level as result of natural and human factors brought about negative effects on the lake's ecosystem in last ten years. Result of these effects, natural fluctuation of the lake changed and the marshes around the lake destroyed and the bird population decreased. Lowering the water level in the lake is also significantly reduced the number of fish and number of migratory birds. The construction of the flood barrier destroyed vegetation and bird life in about a 25% of area of the lake on the south. The natural ecosystem in this area has been adversely affected. Moreover, when the water level is low due to low rain fall and irrigation, vegetation on the lake's shore line dies and some areas turn to swamp. The fauna and flora are negatively affected by water level changes particularly in the protected National Park

  8. Tracking climate change in oligotrophic mountain lakes: Recent hydrology and productivity synergies in Lago de Sanabria (NW Iberian Peninsula).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Recio, Clemente; Vega, José Carlos; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-07-15

    Mountain lakes are particularly sensitive to global change as their oligotrophic conditions may be rapidly altered after reaching an ecological threshold, due to increasing human impact and climate change. Sanabria Lake, the largest mountain lake in the Iberian Peninsula and with a recent history of increased human impact in its watershed, provides an opportunity to investigate recent trends in an oligotrophic, hydrologically-open mountain lake, and their relationship with climate, hydrological variability and human pressure. We conducted the first systematic and detailed survey of stable isotope compositions of Sanabria Lake and Tera River together with limnological analyses during 2009-2011. δ 18 O lakewater and δD lakewater seasonal fluctuations are strongly linked to river discharges, and follow the monthly mean isotopic composition of precipitation, which is controlled by NAO dynamics. δ 13 C POM and δ 13 C DIC revealed higher contribution of allochthonous organic matter in winter and spring due to higher river inflow and lower primary productivity. Increased phytoplankton biomass in late summer correlated significantly with higher pH and Chl-a, and higher nutrient input and lower river inflow. However, the small δ 13 C POM seasonal amplitude underlines the stability of the oligotrophic conditions and the isotopic variation in POM and DIC reflect small seasonal fluctuations mostly as a consequence of strong throughflow. The stability of hydrology and productivity patterns is consistent with Holocene and last millennium reconstructions of past limnological changes in Sanabria Lake. The results of this study indicate that trophic state in this hydrologically-open mountain lake is strongly controlled by climate variability, but recent changes in human-land uses have increased sediment delivery and nutrients supply to the lake and have to be considered for management policies. Monitoring surveys including isotope techniques provide snapshots of modern isotope

  9. Mechanical and Hydrologic Effects of Riparian Vegetation on Critical Conditions for Streambank Stability: Upper Truckee River, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, A.; Pollen, N. L.; Langendoen, E. J.

    2005-05-01

    The Upper Truckee River is the single largest contributor of sediment to Lake Tahoe with a large proportion of the suspended-sediment load coming from eroding streambanks. Recent advances in quantifying streambank processes highlight the combined effects of hydraulic erosion at the bank toe with geotechnical stability of the upper part of the bank and resulted in the development of a deterministic model of bank-toe erosion and streambank stability (Simon et al., 1999). The use of riparian vegetation in schemes of bank stabilization and stream restoration have become popular but are often implemented on a trial and error basis because of a lack of quantifiable information on the mechanical and hydrologic effects of vegetation on bank stability. This study, conducted along an unstable reach of the Upper Truckee River, combines field data with numerical modeling to quantify (1) hydraulic and geotechnical driving and resisting forces that control bank failures, (2) the mechanical and hydrologic effects of vegetation on shear strength, and (3) the critical conditions for bank stability with and without indigenous riparian species. Tests were conducted using three top-bank treatments: bare (control), Lemmon's willow, and young Lodgepole pine. The susceptibility of the bank toe to erosion by hydraulic forces was quantified by conducting submerged jet tests of in situ material to determine the erodibility coefficient (k) and the critical shear stress of the material. Drained, shear-strength parameters (cohesion and friction angle) of the banks were determined from borehole shear tests at various depths. Pore-water pressure and matric suction were monitored at three depths (30, 100, and 150 cm) with digital tensiometers to calculate changes in apparent cohesion for the period (September 2003 - May 2004) and to differentiate between the hydrologic effects of the two species. Root reinforcement of the two species was quantified by determining the relation between root

  10. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-01-01

    The scope of the research program and the continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. (RBOSC) through a separate cooperative agreement with the University of Wyoming (UW) to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was filled in the lysimeter cells

  11. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turner, J.P.; Reeves, T.L.; Skinner, Q.D.; Hasfurther, V.

    1992-11-01

    The scope of the original research program and of its continuation is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large-scale testing sufficient to describe commercial-scale embankment behavior. The large-scale testing was accomplished by constructing five lysimeters, each 7.3x3.0x3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process (Schmalfield 1975). Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Co., Inc. to carry out this study. Three of the lysimeters were established at the RBOSC Tract C-a in the Piceance Basin near Rifle, Colorado. Two lysimeters were established in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL) at UW. The ESL was specifically designed and constructed so that a large range of climatic conditions could be physically applied to the processed oil shale which was placed in the lysimeter cells. This report discusses and summarizes results from scientific efforts conducted between October 1991 and September 1992 for Fiscal Year 1992

  12. Climate and Hydrological Change Characteristics and Applicability of GLDAS Data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological cycle is particularly sensitive to and is greatly affected by global climate change. In addition, runoff change has a strong influence on the hydrological cycle and migration of biogenic substances. The Yarlung Zangbo River basin in China is a typical basin for which climate and hydrological data are lacking. Land surface models can provide data for studying land surface substance and energy circulation, which are meaningful to face climate change. The midstream region of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin, which is strongly affected by climate change, was selected as the study area. First, the observed mean temperature, precipitation and runoff characteristics were analysed. Second, after combining the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS and the water balance equation, we simulated climate and hydrological processes for the same time period. Finally, the correlation and error between GLDAS and observed data were analysed to verify applicability of the GLDAS data, and the impacts of climate factors on runoff were discussed. The results revealed that under the background of global warming, precipitation, temperature, and runoff changed significantly and showed strong consistency during the research period. Mean monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff exhibited clear cyclical fluctuations of approximately 12 months, and they all tended to increase. GLDAS is not a good system to describe the land surface conditions of the Yarlung Zangbo River basin all the time. However, within a certain time period, GLDAS data have a good applicability in the basin. Thereinto, the GLDAS mean monthly precipitation was moderately correlated with observed precipitation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75. GLDAS mean monthly temperature was highly correlated with observed data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94. Based on the Brunke ranking method, it indicates that GLDAS-Noah-based runoff data were closer to observed runoff data

  13. Pre-"peak water" time in the southwest Yukon: when cryospheric changes trigger hydrological regime shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baraer, M.; Chesnokova, A.; Huh, K. I.; Laperriere-Robillard, T.

    2017-12-01

    Saint-Elias Mountains host numerous cryospheric systems such as glaciers, seasonal and perennial snow cover, permafrost, aufeis, and different forms of buried ice. Those systems are very sensitive to climate changes and exhibit ongoing reduction in extent and/or changes in formation/ablation times. Because they highly influence the hydrological regimes of rivers, cryospheric changes raise concerns about consequences for regional water resources and ecosystems. The present study combines historical data analysis and hydrological modeling in order to estimate how cryospheric changes impact hydrological regimes at eight watersheds of different glacier cover (0- 30%) in the southwest Yukon. Methods combine traditional hydrograph analysis techniques and more advance techniques such as Fast Fourier Transform filters used to isolate significant trends in discharge properties from noise or climatic oscillations. Measured trends in discharge variables are connected to cryospheric changes by using a water balance / peak water model (Baraer et al., 2012), here adapted to the main cryospheric systems that characterize the southwest Yukon.Results show three distinct hydrological regimes for (1) non glacierized, (2) glacierized, and (3) major lakes hosting catchments. The studied glacierized catchments have not passed the "peak water" yet and still exhibit increases in yearly and late summer discharges and a decrease in runoff variability. All watersheds show an increase in winter discharge and a snowmelt-driven shift of yearly peak discharge toward earlier in the season. The study suggests that, in a couple of decades, water resources and dependent ecosystems will face the combined effects of (A) a shift in the contribution trend from declining perennial cryospheric systems and (B) continuing alteration of the contribution from the seasonal cryospheric systems.

  14. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land Use/Cover Changes in the Olifants Basin, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Gyamfi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the hydrological impacts of land use changes on the Olifants Basin in South Africa using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. A three-phase land use scenario (2000, 2007 and 2013 employing the “fix-changing” method was used to simulate the hydrology of the Olifants Basin. Changes in land uses were related to different hydrological responses through a multi-regression analysis to quantify the effects of land use changes. Results reveal that from 2000 to 2013, a 31.6% decrease in rangeland with concomitant increases in agriculture lands (20.1%, urban areas (10.5% and forest (0.7% led to a 46.97% increase in surface runoff generation. Further, urbanization was revealed as the strongest contributor to increases in surface runoff generation, water yield and evapotranspiration (ET. ET was found to be a key water availability determinant as it has a high negative impact on surface runoff and water yield. Urbanization and agriculture were the most essential environmental factors influencing water resources of the basin with ET playing a dominant role. The output of the paper provides a simplistic approach of evaluating the impacts of land use changes on water resources. The tools and methods used are relevant for policy directions on water resources planning and adaptation of strategies.

  16. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  17. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

  18. Evaluation of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes at the watershed scale is needed by land managers and policy makers to properly assess potential adaptation strategies. While numerous studies have been conducted on hydrologic processes in the Midwest, only a few have analyzed the l...

  19. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions

  20. Historical trends and the long-term changes of the hydrological cycle components in a Mediterranean river basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentzafou, A; Wagner, S; Dimitriou, E

    2018-04-29

    Identifying the historical hydrometeorological trends in a river basin is necessary for understanding the dominant interactions between climate, human activities and local hydromorphological conditions. Estimating the hydrological reference conditions in a river is also crucial for estimating accurately the impacts from human water related activities and design appropriate water management schemes. In this effort, the output of a regional past climate model was used, covering the period from 1660 to 1990, in combination with a dynamic, spatially distributed, hydrologic model to estimate the past and recent trends in the main hydrologic parameters such as overland flow, water storages and evapotranspiration, in a Mediterranean river basin. The simulated past hydrologic conditions (1660-1960) were compared with the current hydrologic regime (1960-1990), to assess the magnitude of human and natural impacts on the identified hydrologic trends. The hydrological components of the recent period of 2008-2016 were also examined in relation to the impact of human activities. The estimated long-term trends of the hydrologic parameters were partially assigned to varying atmospheric forcing due to volcanic activity combined with spontaneous meteorological fluctuations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Hydrological impacts of global land cover change and human water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. C. Bosmans

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human impacts on global terrestrial hydrology have been accelerating during the 20th century. These human impacts include the effects of reservoir building and human water use, as well as land cover change. To date, many global studies have focussed on human water use, but only a few focus on or include the impact of land cover change. Here we use PCR-GLOBWB, a combined global hydrological and water resources model, to assess the impacts of land cover change as well as human water use globally in different climatic zones. Our results show that land cover change has a strong effect on the global hydrological cycle, on the same order of magnitude as the effect of human water use (applying irrigation, abstracting water, for industrial use for example, including reservoirs, etc.. When globally averaged, changing the land cover from that of 1850 to that of 2000 increases discharge through reduced evapotranspiration. The effect of land cover change shows large spatial variability in magnitude and sign of change depending on, for example, the specific land cover change and climate zone. Overall, land cover effects on evapotranspiration are largest for the transition of tall natural vegetation to crops in energy-limited equatorial and warm temperate regions. In contrast, the inclusion of irrigation, water abstraction and reservoirs reduces global discharge through enhanced evaporation over irrigated areas and reservoirs as well as through water consumption. Hence, in some areas land cover change and water distribution both reduce discharge, while in other areas the effects may partly cancel out. The relative importance of both types of impacts varies spatially across climatic zones. From this study we conclude that land cover change needs to be considered when studying anthropogenic impacts on water resources.

  2. ClimEx - Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf; Baese, Frank; Braun, Marco; Brietzke, Gilbert; Brissette, Francois; Frigon, Anne; Giguère, Michel; Komischke, Holger; Kranzlmueller, Dieter; Leduc, Martin; Martel, Jean-Luc; Ricard, Simon; Schmid, Josef; von Trentini, Fabian; Turcotte, Richard; Weismueller, Jens; Willkofer, Florian; Wood, Raul

    2017-04-01

    on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change. [The authors acknowledge funding for the project from the Bavarian State Ministry for the Environment and Consumer Protection].

  3. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Éric; Gailhard, Joël

    2018-05-01

    This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.

  4. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  5. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study on the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Bellin, A.; Majone, B.; Bovolo, C. I.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2009-12-01

    Uncertainty in projections from climate models limits the understanding of future hydrological impacts and complicates the assessment of mitigation policies. This work presents hydrological simulations of the Ebro River Basin (Spain), using both control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate scenarios, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the water availability of the basin. Using the SWAT model, hydrological simulations were carried out for four catchments with different climatological regimes. Sets of model parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, long-term calibration and uncertainty analysis procedures, which enabled the historical behaviour of the catchments to be reproduced. Following validation, the parameters were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflow. Bias-corrected daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), using the SRES A2 emissions scenario, were used as drivers of the hydrological simulations during the future scenarios. Important annual and seasonal differences in the projected future precipitation and temperature fields were observed among the RCMs. However, a general decrease in annual mean precipitation and an increase in annual mean temperature relative to the control period were observed, with the strongest differences during the summer season. When these changes were used to project future streamflows, a general decrease was observed at the outlet of the catchments. Changes in streamflows were in general agreement with the projections of daily precipitation and temperature fields, with a larger drop in predicted monthly streamflows for catchments with more semi-arid climatological regimes, and seasonal differences that are related to the elevation range of the catchments.

  6. Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajracharya, Ajay Ratna; Bajracharya, Sagar Ratna; Shrestha, Arun Bhakta; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

    2018-06-01

    The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region is an important global freshwater resource. The hydrological regime of the region is vulnerable to climatic variations, especially precipitation and temperature. In our study, we modelled the impact of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the snow dominated Kaligandaki Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of ensemble downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. It is predicted to be a rise in the average annual temperature of over 4°C, and an increase in the average annual precipitation of over 26% by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. Modeling results show these will lead to significant changes in the basin's water balance and hydrological regime. In particular, a 50% increase in discharge is expected at the outlet of the basin. Snowmelt contribution will largely be affected by climate change, and it is projected to increase by 90% by 2090.Water availability in the basin is not likely to decrease during the 21st century. The study demonstrates that the important water balance components of snowmelt, evapotranspiration, and water yield at higher elevations in the upper and middle sub-basins of the Kaligandaki Basin will be most affected by the increasing temperatures and precipitation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. On the utilization of hydrological modelling for road drainage design under climate and land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Briel, Annemarie; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

    2014-03-15

    Road drainage structures are often designed using methods that do not consider process-based representations of a landscape's hydrological response. This may create inadequately sized structures as coupled land cover and climate changes can lead to an amplified hydrological response. This study aims to quantify potential increases of runoff in response to future extreme rain events in a 61 km(2) catchment (40% forested) in southwest Sweden using a physically-based hydrological modelling approach. We simulate peak discharge and water level (stage) at two types of pipe bridges and one culvert, both of which are commonly used at Swedish road/stream intersections, under combined forest clear-cutting and future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The frequency of changes in peak flow and water level varies with time (seasonality) and storm size. These changes indicate that the magnitude of peak flow and the runoff response are highly correlated to season rather than storm size. In all scenarios considered, the dimensions of the current culvert are insufficient to handle the increase in water level estimated using a physically-based modelling approach. It also appears that the water level at the pipe bridges changes differently depending on the size and timing of the storm events. The findings of the present study and the approach put forward should be considered when planning investigations on and maintenance for areas at risk of high water flows. In addition, the research highlights the utility of physically-based hydrological models to identify the appropriateness of road drainage structure dimensioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Contrasting responses of millipedes and terrestrial isopods to hydrologic regime changes in forested montane wetlands

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sterzyńska, M.; Tajovský, Karel; Nicia, P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 68, May-June (2015), s. 33-41 ISSN 1164-5563 Grant - others:National Centre of Sciences(PL) NN304 156240; National Centre of Sciences(PL) NN305 107540 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : wetlands * hydrologic change s * disturbances * mountain fens * soil macro-decomposers Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.951, year: 2015

  9. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  10. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  11. Potential effects of climate change on hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biftu, G.F.; Beersing, A.; Kalinga, O.A.; Pandit, K.N.

    2007-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change must be incorporated within environmental assessments of oil and gas developments. This paper evaluated the findings of a study examining the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta. Components of the study included a review of trends in climate parameters and their effect on hydrology, as well as statistical analyses of precipitation, temperature and stream flow data of the Athabasca River at both the local and regional scale. The influences of tributary streams were also examined. Results of the study demonstrated that air temperatures have been steadily rising over the past few decades. Recorded annual precipitation also increased during the spring and summer months, and decreased during the winter and fall. Annual mean flows decreased. Results suggested that wet and dry cycles tended to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles were analyzed. The analysis of flows in the tributary streams indicated a that mean and peak flows were also decreasing. However, an increase in peak winter flows was observed. It was concluded that there is a large degree of uncertainty in the predictions of the hydrologic effects of climate change. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  12. Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functio...

  13. Impact of oil shale mining and mine closures on hydrological conditions of North-East Estonian rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raetsep, A.; Liblik, V.

    2004-01-01

    The attention is focused on the formation of hydrological and hydrogeological interconnections between the catchment areas of Purtse, Rannapungerja, Puhajoe and Vasavere rivers after closing (in 1997-2002) and flooding the Ahtme, Tammiku, Sompa and Kohtla oil shale underground mines. The multivariate relationship between the changes in mine water amounts directed into the rivers, annual runoff due to mine water inlets, groundwater underground flow, outflow module and other factors (as variables) were studied. A complex of linear regression formulas was derived to calculate the amounts of mine water outputs into the rivers and water distribution in order to regulate the hydrological regime of investigated rivers. (author)

  14. Changing living conditions, life style and health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Curtis, Tine; Kvernmo, Siv; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2005-01-01

    . The aim of the paper is to illustrate the influence of environmental change on living conditions and life style and some of the mechanisms through which such changes affect physical and mental health. The interrelationship between environmental and societal change is illustrated by an example from a small......Human health is the result of the interaction of genetic, nutritional, socio-cultural, economic, physical infrastructure and ecosystem factors. All of the individual, social, cultural and socioeconomic factors are influenced by the environment they are embedded in and by changes in this environment...... community in Greenland, where changing environmental conditions have influenced fishing and employment opportunities to the extent that the size of the population has changed dramatically. The link between social change and health is shown with reference to studies on education, housing and occupation...

  15. Economic valuation of the downstream hydrological effects of land use change: Large hydroelectric reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Bruce Allan

    1998-12-01

    Land use change that accompanies economic development and population growth is intended to raise the economic productivity of land. An inevitable by product of this process is the alteration of natural vegetation and downstream hydrological function. This dissertation explores hydrological externalities of land use change in detail, particularly with regard to their economic impact on large hydroelectric reservoirs (LHRs). A review of the linkages between land use, hydrological function and downstream economic activity suggests that on theoretical grounds the net welfare effect of land use change on hydrological function will be indeterminate. Review of the literature suggests that, though the effects of downstream sedimentation will typically be negative, they may often be of little practical significance. The literature on water quantity impacts is sparse at best. This is most surprising in the case of the literature on LHRs where the potentially important and positive effects of increased water yield are typically ignored in favor of simplistic efforts to document the negative effects of reservoir sedimentation. In order to improve the methodological basis for the economic valuation of hydrological externalities, the dissertation considers existing techniques for the evaluation of non-marketed goods and services, clarifying the manner in which they have been and, in the future, may be applied to the topic at hand. A deterministic simulation model is then constructed for the case of LHRs. The model incorporates the effect of changes in water yield, the seasonal pattern of water yield and sedimentation of live and dead storage volumes as they affect reservoir operation and the production of hydroelectricity. The welfare effects of changes in the productivity of the LHR in the short run and changes to the power system expansion plan in the long run are evaluated using the marginal opportunity costs of alternative power sources and power plants, respectively. A case

  16. CLIMB - Climate induced changes on the hydrology of mediterranean basins - Reducing uncertainties and quantifying risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2010-05-01

    According to future climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources. Threats include severe droughts and extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and desertification due to poor and unsustainable water management practices. It can be foreseen that, unless appropriate adaptation measures are undertaken, the changes in the hydrologic cycle will give rise to an increasing potential for tension and conflict among the political and economic actors in this vulnerable region. The presented project initiative CLIMB, funded under EC's 7th Framework Program (FP7-ENV-2009-1), has started in January 2010. In its 4-year design, it shall analyze ongoing and future climate induced changes in hydrological budgets and extremes across the Mediterranean and neighboring regions. This is undertaken in study sites located in Sardinia, Northern Italy, Southern France, Tunisia, Egypt and the Palestinian-administered area Gaza. The work plan is targeted to selected river or aquifer catchments, where the consortium will employ a combination of novel field monitoring and remote sensing concepts, data assimilation, integrated hydrologic (and biophysical) modeling and socioeconomic factor analyses to reduce existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. Advanced climate scenario analysis will be employed and available ensembles of regional climate model simulations will be downscaling. This process will provide the drivers for an ensemble of hydro(-geo)logical models with different degrees of complexity in terms of process description and level of integration. The results of hydrological modeling and socio-economic factor analysis will enable the development of a GIS-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. This tool will serve as a platform

  17. Assessment of dam construction impact on hydrological regime changes in lowland river – A case of study: the Stare Miasto reservoir located on the Powa River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sojka Mariusz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the presented research is analysis and assessment of the Stare Miasto reservoir impact on the hydrological regime changes of the Powa River. The reservoir was built in 2006 and is located in the central part of Poland. The total area of inundation in normal conditions is 90.68 ha and its capacity is 2.159 mln m3. Hydrological regime alteration of the Powa River is analysed on the basis of daily flows from the Posoka gauge station observed during period 1974–2014. Assessment of hydrological regime changes is carried out on the basis of Range of Variability Approach (RVA method. All calculations are made by means of Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA software version 7.1.0.10. The analysis shows that the Stare Miasto reservoir has a moderate impact on hydrological regime of the Powa River. Construction of the reservoir has positive effect on stability of minimal flows, which are important for protection of river ecosystems. The results obtained indicate that the Stare Miasto reservoir reduces a spring peak flow and enables to moderate control of floods.

  18. Evaluation on uncertainty sources in projecting hydrological changes over the Xijiang River basin in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Fei; Zhao, Chongxu; Jiang, Yong; Ren, Liliang; Shan, Hongcui; Zhang, Limin; Zhu, Yonghua; Chen, Tao; Jiang, Shanhu; Yang, Xiaoli; Shen, Hongren

    2017-11-01

    Projections of hydrological changes are associated with large uncertainties from different sources, which should be quantified for an effective implementation of water management policies adaptive to future climate change. In this study, a modeling chain framework to project future hydrological changes and the associated uncertainties in the Xijiang River basin, South China, was established. The framework consists of three emission scenarios (ESs), four climate models (CMs), four statistical downscaling (SD) methods, four hydrological modeling (HM) schemes, and four probability distributions (PDs) for extreme flow frequency analyses. Direct variance method was adopted to analyze the manner by which uncertainty sources such as ES, CM, SD, and HM affect the estimates of future evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow, and to quantify the uncertainties of PDs in future flood and drought risk assessment. Results show that ES is one of the least important uncertainty sources in most situations. CM, in general, is the dominant uncertainty source for the projections of monthly ET and monthly streamflow during most of the annual cycle, daily streamflow below the 99.6% quantile level, and extreme low flow. SD is the most predominant uncertainty source in the projections of extreme high flow, and has a considerable percentage of uncertainty contribution in monthly streamflow projections in July-September. The effects of SD in other cases are negligible. HM is a non-ignorable uncertainty source that has the potential to produce much larger uncertainties for the projections of low flow and ET in warm and wet seasons than for the projections of high flow. PD contributes a larger percentage of uncertainty in extreme flood projections than it does in extreme low flow estimates. Despite the large uncertainties in hydrological projections, this work found that future extreme low flow would undergo a considerable reduction, and a noticeable increase in drought risk in the Xijiang

  19. A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomer, M.D.; Schilling, K.E.

    2009-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology are subtle compared to cycles of drought and surplus precipitation (PPT), and difficult to separate from effects of land-use change. In the US Midwest, increasing baseflow has been more attributed to increased annual cropping than climate change. The agricultural changes have led to increased fertilizer use and nutrient losses, contributing to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. In a 25-yr, small-watershed experiment in Iowa, when annual hydrologic budgets were accrued between droughts, a coupled water-energy budget (ecohydrologic) analysis showed effects of tillage and climate on hydrology could be distinguished. The fraction of PPT discharged increased with conservation tillage and time. However, unsatisfied evaporative demand (PET - Hargreaves method) increased under conservation tillage, but decreased with time. A conceptual model was developed and a similar analysis conducted on long-term (>1920s) records from four large, agricultural Midwest watersheds underlain by fine-grained tills. At least three of four watersheds showed decreases in PET, and increases in PPT, discharge, baseflow and PPT:PET ratios (p analysis of covariance showed the fraction of precipitation discharged increased, while unsatisfied evaporative demand decreased with time among the four watersheds (p agricultural changes were associated with ecohydrologic shifts that affected timing and significance, but not direction, of these trends. Thus, an ecohydrologic concept derived from small-watershed research, when regionally applied, suggests climate change has increased discharge from Midwest watersheds, especially since the 1970s. By inference, climate change has increased susceptibility of nutrients to water transport, exacerbating Gulf of Mexico hypoxia.

  20. A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

    1998-01-01

    Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

  1. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  2. Changes in northeast African hydrology and vegetation associated with Pliocene–Pleistocene sapropel cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Cassaundra; Polissar, Pratigya J.; Tierney, Jessica E.; Filley, Timothy

    2016-01-01

    East African climate change since the Late Miocene consisted of persistent shorter-term, orbital-scale wet–dry cycles superimposed upon a long-term trend towards more open, grassy landscapes. Either or both of these modes of palaeoclimate variability may have influenced East African mammalian evolution, yet the interrelationship between these secular and orbital palaeoclimate signals remains poorly understood. Here, we explore whether the long-term secular climate change was also accompanied by significant changes at the orbital-scale. We develop northeast African hydroclimate and vegetation proxy data for two 100 kyr-duration windows near 3.05 and 1.75 Ma at ODP Site 967 in the eastern Mediterranean basin, where sedimentation is dominated by eastern Sahara dust input and Nile River run-off. These two windows were selected because they have comparable orbital configurations and bracket an important increase in East African C4 grasslands. We conducted high-resolution (2.5 kyr sampling) multiproxy biomarker, H- and C-isotopic analyses of plant waxes and lignin phenols to document orbital-scale changes in hydrology, vegetation and woody cover for these two intervals. Both intervals are dominated by large-amplitude, precession-scale (approx. 20 kyr) changes in northeast African vegetation and rainfall/run-off. The δ13Cwax values and lignin phenol composition record a variable but consistently C4 grass-dominated ecosystem for both intervals (50–80% C4). Precessional δDwax cycles were approximately 20–30‰ in peak-to-peak amplitude, comparable with other δDwax records of the Early Holocene African Humid Period. There were no significant differences in the means or variances of the δDwax or δ13Cwax data for the 3.05 and 1.75 Ma intervals studied, suggesting that the palaeohydrology and palaeovegetation responses to precessional forcing were similar for these two periods. Data for these two windows suggest that the eastern Sahara did not experience the

  3. Applying Topographic Classification, Based on the Hydrological Process, to Design Habitat Linkages for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongwon Mo

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The use of biodiversity surrogates has been discussed in the context of designing habitat linkages to support the migration of species affected by climate change. Topography has been proposed as a useful surrogate in the coarse-filter approach, as the hydrological process caused by topography such as erosion and accumulation is the basis of ecological processes. However, some studies that have designed topographic linkages as habitat linkages, so far have focused much on the shape of the topography (morphometric topographic classification with little emphasis on the hydrological processes (generic topographic classification to find such topographic linkages. We aimed to understand whether generic classification was valid for designing these linkages. First, we evaluated whether topographic classification is more appropriate for describing actual (coniferous and deciduous and potential (mammals and amphibians habitat distributions. Second, we analyzed the difference in the linkages between the morphometric and generic topographic classifications. The results showed that the generic classification represented the actual distribution of the trees, but neither the morphometric nor the generic classification could represent the potential animal distributions adequately. Our study demonstrated that the topographic classes, according to the generic classification, were arranged successively according to the flow of water, nutrients, and sediment; therefore, it would be advantageous to secure linkages with a width of 1 km or more. In addition, the edge effect would be smaller than with the morphometric classification. Accordingly, we suggest that topographic characteristics, based on the hydrological process, are required to design topographic linkages for climate change.

  4. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  5. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies. Vol. I. Proceedings of an International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by theWater Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the P rincipality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  6. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by the Water Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the Principality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  7. A vertical hydroclimatology of the Upper Indus Basin and initial insights to potential hydrological change in the region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Kilsby, Chris G.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Archer, David R.

    2010-05-01

    The water resources of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are of the utmost importance to the economic wellbeing of Pakistan. The irrigated agriculture made possible by Indus river runoff underpins the food security for Pakistan's nearly 200 million people. Contributions from hydropower account for more than one fifth of peak installed electrical generating capacity in a country where widespread, prolonged load-shedding handicaps business activity and industrial development. Pakistan's further socio-economic development thus depends largely on optimisation of its precious water resources. Confident, accurate projections of future water resource availability and variability are urgent insights needed by development planners and infrastructure managers at all levels. Correctly projecting future hydrological conditions depends first and foremost on a thorough understanding of the underlying mechanisms and processes of present hydroclimatology. The vertical and horizontal spatial variations in key climate parameters (temperature, precipitation) govern the contributions of the various elevation zones and subcatchments comprising the UIB. Trends in this complex mountainous region are highly varied by season and parameter. Observed changes here often do not match general global trends or even necessarily those found in neighbouring regions. This study considers data from a variety sources in order to compose the most complete picture possible of the vertical hydroclimatology of the UIB. The study presents the observed climatology and trends for precipitation and temperature from local observations at long-record meteorological stations (Pakistan Meteorological Department). These data are compared to characterisations of additional water cycle parameters (humidity, cloud, snow cover and snow-water-equivalent) derived from local short-record automatic weather stations, the ECMWF ‘ERA' reanalysis projects and satellite based observations (AVHRR, MODIS, etc). The potential

  8. Climate change, land use and land cover change detection and its impact on hydrological hazards and sustainable development: a case study of Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand, India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ABHAY SHANKAR PRASAD

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Extreme climatic events impact on the natural ecosystems of Alaknanda river basin which affect the socio-economic condition of the rural communities, loss of life, livelihood and natural resources. They pose a serious threat to normal life as well as the process of sustainable development. Rivers are fragile ecosystems which are globally important as water tower of the earth, reservoirs of rich biodiversity, and a popular destination for recreation, tourism and culture heritage. Rivers provides direct life support base for humankind. The unique Geo-climatic condition of Garhwal Himalaya, Alaknanda River basin, Uttarakhand makes it one of the most vulnerable regions in the India. Hydrological hazards are sudden calamities, which involve loss of life, property and livelihood. This paper presents a methodological approach for the integration of extreme events, climatic vulnerability, land use scenario, and flood risk assessment. Anthropogenic activities are continuously disturbing the natural system of the Garhwal Himalaya and its impact on extreme hydrological events. Factors causing these changes have been attempted to be understood through the use of GIS and Geospatial techniques. Human interference, unscientific developmental activities, agriculture extension, tourism activity and road construction are creating the hydrological hazards. Soil erosion and landslide have been recognised as major hazards in the high altitude region of Himalaya. This paper has analysed and evaluates the climate and livelihood vulnerability assessment and its adaptation for sustainable development in the near district headquarter (NDH away district headquarter (ADH determined mainly by a weighted matrix index. The Geospatial technique is used to find out the land use/cover change detection and secondary data is taken to carry out the analysis work. Primary data from each hotspot has been collected through a questionnaire survey and a Participatory Research Approach

  9. Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a review and synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, Chris M.; Wheater, Howard S.; Carey, Sean K.; Chun, Kwok P.

    2016-04-01

    It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 °C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken

  10. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 12, Models and Tools for Stormwater and Wastewater System Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  11. Water System Adaptation To Hydrological Changes: Module 14, Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and Prioritization Tools in Water System Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course will introduce students to the fundamental principles of water system adaptation to hydrological changes, with emphasis on data analysis and interpretation, technical planning, and computational modeling. Starting with real-world scenarios and adaptation needs, the co...

  12. Isotope hydrological evidence of geomorphological changes in North-Eastern Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hertelendi, E.; Marton, L.; Miko, L.

    1991-01-01

    Stable isotope and radiocarbon data of groundwater stored in Quaternary aquifers in North-Eastern Hungary can not be explained by climatic changes alone. More than two hundred δD, δ 18 O and radiocarbon ages of waters from 79 wells show that the recharge are changed during the time of upper pleniglacial and late glacial. Groundwaters of the studied are can be divided into three categories, which can explain their origin. The data are consistent with geomorphological results giving isotope evidence of hydrology for a geodynamical event during the mentioned periods. (R.P.) 3 refs.; 2 figs

  13. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  14. Functional integrity of freshwater forested wetlands, hydrologic alteration, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.; Souter, Nicholas J.;

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will challenge managers to balance the freshwater needs of humans and wetlands. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that most regions of the world will be exposed to higher temperatures, CO2, and more erratic precipitation, with some regions likely to have alternating episodes of intense flooding and mega-drought. Coastal areas will be exposed to more frequent saltwater inundation as sea levels rise. Local land managers desperately need intra-regional climate information for site-specific planning, management, and restoration activities. Managers will be challenged to deliver freshwater to floodplains during climate change-induced drought, particularly within hydrologically altered and developed landscapes. Assessment of forest health, both by field and remote sensing techniques, will be essential to signal the need for hydrologic remediation. Studies of the utility of the release of freshwater to remediate stressed forested floodplains along the Murray and Mississippi Rivers suggest that brief episodes of freshwater remediation for trees can have positive health benefits for these forests. The challenges of climate change in forests of the developing world will be considered using the Tonle Sap of Cambodia as an example. With little ecological knowledge of the impacts, managing climate change will add to environmental problems already faced in the developing world with new river engineering projects. These emerging approaches to remediate stressed trees will be of utmost importance for managing worldwide floodplain forests with predicted climate changes.

  15. Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions: a study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Hammond, Michael; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2012-12-01

    River Francolí is a small river in Catalonia (northeastern Spain) with an average annual low flow (~2 m(3)/s). The purpose of the River Francolí watershed assessments is to support and inform region-wide planning efforts from the perspective of water protection, climate change and water allocation. In this study, a hydrological model of the Francolí River watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, water resource assessment, and ultimately, water allocation purposes using hydrological data from 2002 to 2006 inclusive. The modeling package selected for this application is DHI's MIKE BASIN. This model is a strategic scale water resource management simulation model, which includes modeling of both land surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Topographic, land use, hydrological, rainfall, and meteorological data were used to develop the model segmentation and input. Due to the unavailability of required catchment runoff data, the NAM rainfall-runoff model was used to calculate runoff of all the sub-watersheds. The results reveal a potential pressure on the availability of groundwater and surface water in the lower part of River Francolí as was expected by the IPCC for Mediterranean river basins. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area and data scarcity, a comprehensive physically based method was required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined ArcGIS/MIKE BASIN models appear as a useful tool to assess the hydrological cycle and to better understand water allocation to different sectors in the Francolí River watershed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

    2018-01-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other

  17. Farmers’ Responses to Changing Hydrological Trends in the Niger Basin Parts of Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ganiyu Titilope Oyerinde

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change given its low capacities of resilience to the enormous challenges climate change will pose. Research aimed at evaluating changes in hydrological trends and methods of adaptation was conducted in the Niger Basin parts of Benin at the peak of the rainy season in the year 2012. Rainfall and river discharge were analyzed from 1950–2010 in order to generate patterns of changes in the region. Structured questionnaires were used to evaluate the perceptions of 14 farming communities on climate-related issues and their methods of adaptations. Mann-Kendall and Pettit trend analyses were conducted for rainfall and river discharge. The findings indicated that significant decreases characterized rainfall and river discharge in the period of study. Flash flood was considered the major challenge faced in the region according to more than 90% of crop, animal, and fish farmers. Aside from that, decrease in water availability was identified as an additional challenge. Irrigation, diversification, water treatment, drainage, small dams, and dikes were reported as the common adaptation mechanisms in the catchments. This study will help in designing sustainable adaptation mechanisms to abrupt changes in the hydrology of the region.

  18. Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

  19. Assessment of climate change impact on hydrological extremes in two source regions of the Nile River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Taye

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of climate change was investigated on the hydrological extremes of Nyando River and Lake Tana catchments, which are located in two source regions of the Nile River basin. Climate change scenarios were developed for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (ETo, considering 17 General Circulation Model (GCM simulations to better understand the range of possible future change. They were constructed by transferring the extracted climate change signals to the observed series using a frequency perturbation downscaling approach, which accounts for the changes in rainfall extremes. Projected changes under two future SRES emission scenarios A1B and B1 for the 2050s were considered. Two conceptual hydrological models were calibrated and used for the impact assessment. Their difference in simulating the flows under future climate scenarios was also investigated.

    The results reveal increasing mean runoff and extreme peak flows for Nyando catchment for the 2050s while unclear trend is observed for Lake Tana catchment for mean volumes and high/low flows. The hydrological models for Lake Tana catchment, however, performed better in simulating the hydrological regimes than for Nyando, which obviously also induces a difference in the reliability of the extreme future projections for both catchments. The unclear impact result for Lake Tana catchment implies that the GCM uncertainty is more important for explaining the unclear trend than the hydrological models uncertainty. Nevertheless, to have a better understanding of future impact, hydrological models need to be verified for their credibility of simulating extreme flows.

  20. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

  1. Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

    2016-01-01

    Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

  2. Modeling effects of hydrological changes on the carbon and nitrogen balance of oak in floodplains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Stephan A; Hasenauer, Hubert; Kucera, Jiŕi; Cermák, Jan

    2003-08-01

    We extended the applicability of the ecosystem model BIOME-BGC to floodplain ecosystems to study effects of hydrological changes on Quercus robur L. stands. The extended model assesses floodplain peculiarities, i.e., seasonal flooding and water infiltration from the groundwater table. Our interest was the tradeoff between (a). maintaining regional applicability with respect to available model input information, (b). incorporating the necessary mechanistic detail and (c). keeping the computational effort at an acceptable level. An evaluation based on observed transpiration, timber volume, soil carbon and soil nitrogen content showed that the extended model produced unbiased results. We also investigated the impact of hydrological changes on our oak stands as a result of the completion of an artificial canal network in 1971, which has stopped regular springtime flooding. A comparison of the 11 years before versus the 11 years after 1971 demonstrated that the hydrological changes affected mainly the annual variation across years in leaf area index (LAI) and soil carbon and nitrogen sequestration, leading to stagnation of carbon and nitrogen stocks, but to an increase in the variance across years. However, carbon sequestration to timber was unaffected and exhibited no significant change in cross-year variation. Finally, we investigated how drawdown of the water table, a general problem in the region, affects modeled ecosystem behavior. We found a further amplification of cross-year LAI fluctuations, but the variance in soil carbon and nitrogen stocks decreased. Volume increment was unaffected, suggesting a stabilization of the ecosystem two decades after implementation of water management measures.

  3. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

    2004-01-01

    Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

  4. The Change in Black Sea Water Composition and Hydrology during Deglaciation from Multiproxy Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanchilina, A.; Ryan, W. B. F.; McManus, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    This study presents a reconstruction of changes in the water column from the last glacial into the early Holocene using stable isotope, 87Sr/86Sr, 14C, and trace element ratios from mollusks from the shelf area and ostracods from the basin of the Black Sea. The stable isotope record is compared to a thoroughly U/Th dated terrestrial stable isotope record of a nearby cave, Sofular cave in northwestern Turkey. The combination of deep, surface, and terrestrial signals gives valuable insight towards the behavior of the lake water during the deglaciation in multiple dimensions, specifically the water column stratification and hydrological dynamics. The comparison of the stable isotope records of two independent proxies allows to make inferences on the changes in the 14C reservoir of the Black Sea-Lake. Results show that during the glacial period, water from the Black Sea-Lake was outflowing to the Sea of Marmara but the ventilation of the water column was weak as old 14C was not removed and allowed to accumulate giving the lake a large 14C reservoir age. A deglacial pulse of meltwater released from the Eurasian Fennoscandian pro-glacial lakes increased ventilation of the water column. This is seen in lighter δ18O and a spike in radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr in both deep and shallow parts of the water column. The dynamic ventilation and outflow of water into the Sea of Marmara continued until the onset of the Bolling/Allerod as the radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr was almost completely flushed out in a couple hundred years time. During the Bolling/Allerod and Preboreal warming, δ18O got heavier whereas the 87Sr/86Sr stayed constant and the 14C again accumulated and contributed to an older reservoir age. The Younger Dryas period, sandwiched in between the two warming periods, shows a return to glacial conditions in the δ13C and that the water outflowed to the Sea of Marmara as the δ18O only showed a slight change towards a more heavy value.

  5. The role of the antecedent soil moisture condition on the distributed hydrologic modelling of the Toce alpine basin floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, G.; Montaldo, N.; Mancini, M.; Rosso, R.

    2003-04-01

    Event-based hydrologic models need the antecedent soil moisture condition, as critical boundary initial condition for flood simulation. Land-surface models (LSMs) have been developed to simulate mass and energy transfers, and to update the soil moisture condition through time from the solution of water and energy balance equations. They are recently used in distributed hydrologic modeling for flood prediction systems. Recent developments have made LSMs more complex by inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing parameter number and uncertainty of their estimates. This also led to increasing of computational burden and parameterization of the distributed hydrologic models. In this study we investigate: 1) the role of soil moisture initial conditions in the modeling of Alpine basin floods; 2) the adequate complexity level of LSMs for the distributed hydrologic modeling of Alpine basin floods. The Toce basin is the case study; it is located in the North Piedmont (Italian Alps), and it has a total drainage area of 1534 km2 at Candoglia section. Three distributed hydrologic models of different level of complexity are developed and compared: two (TDLSM and SDLSM) are continuous models, one (FEST02) is an event model based on the simplified SCS-CN method for rainfall abstractions. In the TDLSM model a two-layer LSM computes both saturation and infiltration excess runoff, and simulates the evolution of the water table spatial distribution using the topographic index; in the SDLSM model a simplified one-layer distributed LSM only computes hortonian runoff, and doesn’t simulate the water table dynamic. All the three hydrologic models simulate the surface runoff propagation through the Muskingum-Cunge method. TDLSM and SDLSM models have been applied for the two-year (1996 and 1997) simulation period, during which two major floods occurred in the November 1996 and in the June 1997. The models have been calibrated and tested comparing simulated and

  6. Hydrologic budget and conditions of Permian, Pennsylvanian, and Mississippian aquifers in the Appalachian Plateaus physiographic province

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Kurt J.; Yager, Richard M.; Nelms, David L.; Ladd, David E.; Monti,, Jack; Kozar, Mark D.

    2015-08-13

    In response to challenges to groundwater availability posed by historic land-use practices, expanding development of hydrocarbon resources, and drought, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program began a regional assessment of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers in 2013 that incorporated a hydrologic landscape approach to estimate all components of the hydrologic system: surface runoff, base flow from groundwater, and interaction with atmospheric water (precipitation and evapotranspiration). This assessment was intended to complement other Federal and State investigations and provide foundational groundwater-related datasets in the Appalachian Plateaus.

  7. Hydrological conditions in the straits of the Ryukyu archipelago and adjacent basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moroz, V. V.; Bogdanov, K. T.

    2007-10-01

    The structure and dynamics of the water are studied on the basis of hydrological and meteorological long-term data combined with the materials of field observations over a period longer than half a century in the region of the Ryukyu archipelago. New data about the hydrological characteristics of the waters were obtained. Characteristic differences of waters of various modifications in the main straits between the islands are demonstrated. The dependence of the water structure formation in the straits on the seasonal variability of the water exchange through the straits is distinguished.

  8. Impact of Cryosphere Hydrological Changes on the River Runoff in the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Yang, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is the headwaters of many major rivers in Asia, the change in streamflow is significant for social and economic development and natural ecology in the middle and lower reaches. Located in the alpine region, streamflow in the plateau is mainly affected by the cryosphere hydrological processes. Due to global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau is experiencing glaciers shrinking and permafrost degradation. Accelerated glacier melt led to the increasing meltwater, thus affecting the streamflow. Permafrost is an important factor in stabilizing the water cycle and streamflow, the ecological degradation and the significant changes of rivers, lakes, swamps, wetlands and other hydrological environment in recent decades in the Tibetan plateau is closely related to permafrost degradation. Therefore, it is important to explore the impact of cryosphere hydrological changes on the streamflow for the future water management. This study uses a method of base flow separation and a stepwise multiple regression model to investigate the reasons for the runoff changes in different regions of the Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2000. The contribution of glacier melt to annual runoff is particularly estimated to explore the possible influences of soil freezing and thawing on annual runoff changes. The results show an increasing trend of the annual runoff in the upstream of Nujiang River, Lancang River and Qilian Mountains, dominated by the increasing of base flow; and a decreasing trend of the runoff in the upper reach of the Yarlung Zangbo River, Yellow River and Yangtze River, dominated by the reduction of quick flow. Change in the amount of runoff was mainly due to change in precipitation. Rising temperature accelerates the melting of glaciers and increases the summer quick flow. In addition, rising temperature may reduce the quick flow and increase the base flow due to change of the active permafrost layers, which leads to the increase of soil water storage

  9. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  10. Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2018-05-01

    This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

  11. Revealing, Reducing, and Representing Uncertainties in New Hydrologic Projections for Climate-changed Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Jeffrey; Clark, Martyn; Gutmann, Ethan; Wood, Andy; Nijssen, Bart; Rasmussen, Roy

    2016-04-01

    The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for multi-purpose water resource operations on most of the major river systems in the U.S. for more than 200 years. In that time, the USACE projects and programs making up those operations have proved mostly robust against the range of natural climate variability encountered over their operating life spans. However, in some watersheds and for some variables, climate change now is known to be shifting the hydroclimatic baseline around which that natural variability occurs and changing the range of that variability as well. This makes historical stationarity an inappropriate basis for assessing continued project operations under climate-changed futures. That means new hydroclimatic projections are required at multiple scales to inform decisions about specific threats and impacts, and for possible adaptation responses to limit water-resource vulnerabilities and enhance operational resilience. However, projections of possible future hydroclimatologies have myriad complex uncertainties that require explicit guidance for interpreting and using them to inform those decisions about climate vulnerabilities and resilience. Moreover, many of these uncertainties overlap and interact. Recent work, for example, has shown the importance of assessing the uncertainties from multiple sources including: global model structure [Meehl et al., 2005; Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013]; internal climate variability [Deser et al., 2012; Kay et al., 2014]; climate downscaling methods [Gutmann et al., 2012; Mearns et al., 2013]; and hydrologic models [Addor et al., 2014; Vano et al., 2014; Mendoza et al., 2015]. Revealing, reducing, and representing these uncertainties is essential for defining the plausible quantitative climate change narratives required to inform water-resource decision-making. And to be useful, such quantitative narratives, or storylines, of climate change threats and hydrologic impacts must sample

  12. Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Rheannon M.; Green, W. Reed; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; DeLanois, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    -use changes for scenarios 1 and 3 resulted in little (generally less than 10 percent) overall effect on the simulated water quality in the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model. The land-use change of scenario 2 affected subwatersheds that include Bringle, Reece, and Yount Creek tributaries and most other subwatersheds that drain into the northern side of Lake Maumelle; large percent increases in loading rates (generally between 10 and 25 percent) included dissolved nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria. For scenario 1, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, and total organic carbon loads from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model resulted in very slight (generally less than 10 percent) changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition. Following lake mixing in the falls of 2006 and 2007, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations were higher than the baseline condition and chlorophyll a responded accordingly. The increased nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations in late October and into 2007 were enough to increase concentrations, on average, for the entire simulation period (2004–10). For scenario 2, the simulated changes in nutrient, suspended sediment, total organic carbon, and fecal coliform bacteria loads from the Lake Maumelle watershed resulted in slight changes in simulated water quality for Lake Maumelle, relative to the baseline condition (total nitrogen decreased by 0.01 milligram per liter; dissolved orthophosphate increased by 0.001 milligram per liter; chlorophyll a decreased by 0.1 microgram per liter). The differences in these concentrations are approximately an order of magnitude less than the error between measured and simulated concentrations in the baseline model. During the driest summer in the simulation period (2006), phosphorus and nitrogen

  13. Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, Jens C.; Sonnenborg, Torben; Butts, Michael

    2016-01-01

    This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts with particular focus on groundwater aspects for a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. We find results similar...... to surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we find uncertainties related to geological conceptualisation and hydrological model discretisation to be dominating for projections of well field...... climate-hydrology models....

  14. Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Johnson, Henry M.

    2018-01-01

    Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with

  15. Water Cycle Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Advancing Hydrologic Science through Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.; Kumar, P.; Rhoads, B. L.; Wuebbles, D.

    2007-12-01

    As one ponders a changing environment -- climate, hydrology, land use, biogeochemical cycles, human dynamics -- there is an increasing need to understand the long term evolution of the linked component systems (e.g., climatic, hydrologic and ecological) through conceptual and quantitative models. The most challenging problem toward this goal is to understand and incorporate the rich dynamics of multiple linked systems with weak and strong coupling, and with many internal variables that exhibit multi-scale interactions. The richness of these interactions leads to fluctuations in one variable that in turn drive the dynamics of other related variables. The key question then becomes: Do these complexities lend an inherently stochastic character to the system, rendering deterministic prediction and modeling of limited value, or do they translate into constrained self- organization through which emerges order, and a limited group of "active" processes (that may change from time to time) that determine the general evolution of the system through a series of structured states with a distinct signature? This is a grand challenge for predictability and therefore requires community effort. The interconnectivity and hence synthesis of knowledge across the fields should be natural for hydrologists since the global water cycle and its regional manifestations directly correspond to the information flows for mass and energy transformations across the media, and across the disciplines. Further, the rich history of numerical, conceptual and stochastic modeling in hydrology provides the training and breadth for addressing the multi- scale, complex system dynamics challenges posed by the evolution question. Theory and observational analyses that necessitate stepping back from the existing knowledge paradigms and looking at the integrated system are needed. In this talk we will present the outlines of a new NSF-funded community effort that attempts to forge inter- disciplinary

  16. Conditioned Reinforcement Value and Resistance to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahan, Timothy A.; Podlesnik, Christopher A.

    2008-01-01

    Three experiments examined the effects of conditioned reinforcement value and primary reinforcement rate on resistance to change using a multiple schedule of observing-response procedures with pigeons. In the absence of observing responses in both components, unsignaled periods of variable-interval (VI) schedule food reinforcement alternated with…

  17. Evaluative conditioning induces changes in sound valence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. Bolders

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Evaluative Conditioning (EC has hardly been tested in the auditory domain, but it is a potentially valuable research tool. In Experiment 1 we investigated whether the affective evaluation of short environmental sounds can be changed using affective words as unconditioned stimuli (US. Congruence effects on an affective priming task (APT for conditioned sounds demonstrated successful EC. Subjective ratings for sounds paired with negative words changed accordingly. In Experiment 2 we investigated whether the acquired valence remains stable after repeated presentation of the conditioned sound without the US or whether extinction occurs. The acquired affective value remained present, albeit weaker, even after 40 extinction trials. These results warrant the use of EC to study processing of short environmental sounds with acquired valence, even if this requires repeated stimulus presentations. This paves the way for studying processing of affective environmental sounds while effectively controlling low level-stimulus properties.

  18. Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, L.

    2017-12-01

    Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging

  19. Western Tropical Atlantic Hydrologic change during the last 130,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrath, S. M.; Lavoie, N.; Oppo, D.

    2016-12-01

    Abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic during the last 130,000 years are associated with hydrologic changes in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies on marine sediment cores from between 4°S and the equator have documented pulses of terrigenous sediment recording increased precipitation and weathering on the Brazilian Nordeste associated with Heinrich events. We worked on cores KNR197-3-11CDH (7°40'N, 53°49'W, water depth 550 m) and KNR 197-3-46CDH (7°50.1621'N, 53°39.8051'W, 947m water depth) located farther north along the South American continental slope, where sediment derives from the Amazon river basin and is transported by the North Brazilian Current. Preliminary stratigraphy based on magnetic susceptibility shows a possible correlation with the Greenland ice core δ18O stratigraphy. We use sediment elemental composition, determined by x-ray fluorescence (XRF) to evaluate variations in terrigenous sediment runoff and δ18O of the planktonic foraminifers Globierinoides ruber to evaluate variations in western tropical North Atlantic surface hydrography across North Atlantic abrupt climate events. Similarities and differences among our records and the records from the more southerly cores will help understand the mechanisms of hydrologic changes in the regions on abrupt climate time scales.

  20. Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Montanari

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long-term fluctuations. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and persistence properties, to gain a better understanding of natural patterns, and in particular long-term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

  1. Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, A.

    2012-05-01

    Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long term cycles. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and memory properties to better understand natural patterns and in particular long term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

  2. Seasonal changes in the European gravity field from GRACE: A comparison with superconducting gravimeters and hydrology model predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hinderer, J.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Lemoine, F.

    2006-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the investigation of seasonal changes of the Earth's gravity field from GRACE satellites and the comparison with surface gravity measurements in Europe from the Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) sub-network, as well as with recent hydrology models for continental soil...... moisture and snow. We used gravity maps in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 21 -month duration from April 2002 to December 2003 for various truncation levels of the initial spherical harmonic decomposition of the field. The transfer function between satellite......-derived and ground gravity changes due to continental hydrology is studied and we also compute the theoretical ratio of gravity versus radial displacement (in mu Gal/mm) involved in the hydrological loading process. The 'mean' value (averaged in time and in space over Europe) from hydrologic forward modeling...

  3. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viola, F., E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

    2016-02-15

    ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

  4. Co-evolution of hydrological components under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viola, F.; Francipane, A.; Caracciolo, D.; Pumo, D.; La Loggia, G.; Noto, L.V.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is historically characterized by high human pressure on water resources. Today, while climate is projected to be modified in the future, through precipitation decrease and temperature increase, that jointly and non-linearly may affect runoff, concerns about water availability are increasing. For these reasons, quantitative assessment of future modifications in the mean annual water availability are important; likewise, the description of the future interannual variability of some hydrological components such as runoff and evapotranspiration are highly wished for water management and ecosystems dynamics analyses. This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration, exploring their probability density functions and their interdependence as functions of climatic changes. In order to do that, a parsimonious conceptual lumped model is here used. The model is forced by different future climate scenarios, generated through a weather generator based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) realizations. The use of the adopted hydrological model, under reliable stochastic future climate scenarios, allows to project future values of evapotranspiration and runoff in a probabilistic framework and, at the same time, the evaluation of their bivariate frequency distributions for changes through the Multivariate Kernel Density Estimation method. As a case study, a benchmark Mediterranean watershed has been proposed (Imera Meridionale, Italy). Results suggest a radical shift and shape modification of the annual runoff and evapotranspiration probability density functions. Possible implications and impacts on water resources management are here addressed and discussed. - Highlights: • This study investigates at basin spatial scale future runoff and evapotranspiration. • A simple conceptual hydrological model and GCMs realizations have been coupled. • Radical shift and shape

  5. Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijgevoort, van M.H.J.; Lanen, van H.A.J.; Teuling, A.J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-01-01

    Drought severity and related socio-economic impacts are expected to increase due to climate change. To better adapt to these impacts, more knowledge on changes in future hydrological drought characteristics (e.g. frequency, duration) is needed rather than only knowledge on changes in meteorological

  6. Hydrologic conditions, recharge, and baseline water quality of the surficial aquifer system at Jekyll Island, Georgia, 2012-13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Debbie W.; Torak, Lynn J.

    2016-03-08

    An increase of groundwater withdrawals from the surficial aquifer system on Jekyll Island, Georgia, prompted an investigation of hydrologic conditions and water quality by the U.S. Geological Survey during October 2012 through December 2013. The study demonstrated the importance of rainfall as the island’s main source of recharge to maintain freshwater resources by replenishing the water table from the effects of hydrologic stresses, primarily evapotranspiration and pumping. Groundwater-flow directions, recharge, and water quality of the water-table zone on the island were investigated by installing 26 shallow wells and three pond staff gages to monitor groundwater levels and water quality in the water-table zone. Climatic data from Brunswick, Georgia, were used to calculate potential maximum recharge to the water-table zone on Jekyll Island. A weather station located on the island provided only precipitation data. Additional meteorological data from the island would enhance potential evapotranspiration estimates for recharge calculations.

  7. Impacts of Changing Climate, Hydrology and Land Use on the Stormwater Runoff of Urbanizing Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2017-12-01

    We computed the historical and future storm runoff scenarios for the Shingle Creek Basin, including the growing urban centers of central Florida (e.g., City of Orlando). Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1) of US EPA was used to develop a mechanistic hydrologic model for the basin by incorporating components of urban hydrology, hydroclimatological variables, and land use/cover features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow of 2004-2013 near the outlet of the Shingle Creek. The calibrated model was used to compute the sensitivities of stormwater budget to reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and land use/cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Basin stormwater budgets for the historical (2010s = 2004-2013) and future periods (2050s = 2030-2059; 2080s = 2070-2099) were also computed based on downscaled climatic projections of 20 GCMs-RCMs representing the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), and anticipated changes in land use/cover. The sensitivity analyses indicated the dominant drivers of urban runoff in the basin. Comparative assessment of the historical and future stormwater runoff scenarios helped to locate basin areas that would be at a higher risk of future stormwater flooding. Importance of the study lies in providing valuable guidelines for managing stormwater flooding in central Florida and similar growing urban centers around the world.

  8. Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

    2017-12-01

    The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through

  9. Seasonal changes in the European gravity field from GRACE: A comparison with superconducting gravimeters and hydrology model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinderer, Jacques; Andersen, Ole; Lemoine, Frank; Crossley, David; Boy, Jean-Paul

    2006-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the investigation of seasonal changes of the Earth's gravity field from GRACE satellites and the comparison with surface gravity measurements in Europe from the Global Geodynamics Project (GGP) sub-network, as well as with recent hydrology models for continental soil moisture and snow. We used gravity maps in Europe retrieved from the initial GRACE monthly solutions spanning a 21-month duration from April 2002 to December 2003 for various truncation levels of the initial spherical harmonic decomposition of the field. The transfer function between satellite-derived and ground gravity changes due to continental hydrology is studied and we also compute the theoretical ratio of gravity versus radial displacement (in μGal/mm) involved in the hydrological loading process. The 'mean' value (averaged in time and in space over Europe) from hydrologic forward modeling is found to be close to -1.0 μGal/mm and we show that this value can be explained by a strong low degree ( n = 5-6) peak in the hydrology amplitude spectrum. The dominant time-variable signal from GRACE is found to be annual with an amplitude and a phase both of which are in fair agreement with predictions in Europe from recent hydrology models. Initial results suggest that all three data sets (GRACE, hydrology and GGP) respond to annual changes in near-surface water in Europe of a few μGal (at length scales of ˜1000 km) that show a high value in winter and a summer minimum. Despite the limited time span of our analysis and the uncertainties in separating purely local effects from regional ones in superconducting gravimeter data, the calibration and validation aspects of the GRACE data processing based on the annual hydrology cycle in Europe are in progress.

  10. Xenon changes under power-burst conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    Under ordinary operating conditions the xenon concentration in a reactor core can change significantly in times on the order of hours. Core transients of safety significance are much more rapid and hence calculations are done with xenon concentration held constant. However, in certain transients (such as reactivity initiated accidents) there is a very large power surge and the question arises as to whether under these circumstances the xenon concentration could change. This would be particularly important if the xenon were reduced thereby tending to make the accident autocatalytic. The objective of the present study is to quantify this effect to see if it could be important

  11. Modeling Pre- and Post- Wildfire Hydrologic Response to Vegetation Change in the Valles Caldera National Preserve, NM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, A. E.; Benedict, K. K.; Zhang, S.; Savickas, J.

    2017-12-01

    Large scale, high severity wildfires in forests have become increasingly prevalent in the western United States due to fire exclusion. Although past work has focused on the immediate consequences of wildfire (ie. runoff magnitude and debris flow), little has been done to understand the post wildfire hydrologic consequences of vegetation regrowth. Furthermore, vegetation is often characterized by static parameterizations within hydrological models. In order to understand the temporal relationship between hydrologic processes and revegetation, we modularized and partially automated the hydrologic modeling process to increase connectivity between remotely sensed data, the Virtual Watershed Platform (a data management resource, called the VWP), input meteorological data, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). This process was used to run simulations in the Valles Caldera of NM, an area impacted by the 2011 Las Conchas Fire, in PRMS before and after the Las Conchas to evaluate hydrologic process changes. The modeling environment addressed some of the existing challenges faced by hydrological modelers. At present, modelers are somewhat limited in their ability to push the boundaries of hydrologic understanding. Specific issues faced by modelers include limited computational resources to model processes at large spatial and temporal scales, data storage capacity and accessibility from the modeling platform, computational and time contraints for experimental modeling, and the skills to integrate modeling software in ways that have not been explored. By taking an interdisciplinary approach, we were able to address some of these challenges by leveraging the skills of hydrologic, data, and computer scientists; and the technical capabilities provided by a combination of on-demand/high-performance computing, distributed data, and cloud services. The hydrologic modeling process was modularized to include options for distributing meteorological data, parameter space

  12. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Zhi; Fan, Yuting; Wang, Huaijun; Deng, Haijun

    2015-05-01

    The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Numerical analysis of thermal-hydrological conditions in the single heater test at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, Jens T.; Tsang, Yvonne W.

    1998-01-01

    The Single Heater Test (SHT) is one of two in-situ thermal tests included in the site characterization program for the potential underground nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The heating phase of the SHT started in August 1996, and was completed in May 1997 after 9 months of heating. The coupled processes in the unsaturated fractured rock mass around the heater were monitored by numerous sensors for thermal, hydrological, mechanical and chemical data. In addition to passive monitoring, active testing of the rock mass moisture content was performed using geophysical methods and air injection testing. The extensive data set available from this test gives a unique opportunity to improve the understanding of the thermal-hydrological situation in the natural setting of the repository rocks. The present paper focuses on the 3-D numerical simulation of the thermal-hydrological processes in the SHT using TOUGH2. In the comparative analysis, they are particularly interested in the accuracy of different fracture-matrix-interaction concepts such as the Effective Continuum (ECM), the Dual Continuum (DKM), and the Multiple Interacting Continua (MINC) method

  14. Artificial intelligence techniques coupled with seasonality measures for hydrological regionalization of Q90 under Brazilian conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beskow, Samuel; de Mello, Carlos Rogério; Vargas, Marcelle M.; Corrêa, Leonardo de L.; Caldeira, Tamara L.; Durães, Matheus F.; de Aguiar, Marilton S.

    2016-10-01

    Information on stream flows is essential for water resources management. The stream flow that is equaled or exceeded 90% of the time (Q90) is one the most used low stream flow indicators in many countries, and its determination is made from the frequency analysis of stream flows considering a historical series. However, stream flow gauging network is generally not spatially sufficient to meet the necessary demands of technicians, thus the most plausible alternative is the use of hydrological regionalization. The objective of this study was to couple the artificial intelligence techniques (AI) K-means, Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), K-harmonic means (KHM), Fuzzy C-means (FCM) and Genetic K-means (GKA), with measures of low stream flow seasonality, for verification of its potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions for the regionalization of Q90. For the performance analysis of the proposed methodology, location attributes from 108 watersheds situated in southern Brazil, and attributes associated with their seasonality of low stream flows were considered in this study. It was concluded that: (i) AI techniques have the potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions in the context of Q90 in the study region, especially the FCM method based on fuzzy logic, and GKA, based on genetic algorithms; (ii) the attributes related to seasonality of low stream flows added important information that increased the accuracy of the grouping; and (iii) the adjusted mathematical models have excellent performance and can be used to estimate Q90 in locations lacking monitoring.

  15. An Analysis of Land Use Change Dynamics and Its Impacts on Hydrological Processes in the Jialing River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use changes are important aspects of global change and affect regional water cycles, environmental quality, biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems. To understand the temporal and spatial land use change in the Jialing River Basin and its impacts on the hydrological cycle, land use change models and the variable infiltration capacity (VIC model were applied separately to the Jialing River Basin. Real change and final change were analyzed to determine the consequences of land use changes and their hydrological consequences. Real change is defined as the total variation during a fixed period, including increases and decreases. Thus, real change is the sum of the absolute values of the decrease and the increase. Final change is defined as the difference between the beginning and end of a given period for a specific factor. Overall, the amounts of settlement and shrub land area changed significantly in the entire Jialing River (with final change rates of 20.77% and −16.07%, respectively, and real change rates of 34.2% and 30.1%, respectively, from 1985 to 1995, as well as final and real change rates of 29.37%, 12.40%, 39.9% and 32.8%, respectively, from 1995 to 2000. Compared with the final change, the real change highlighted the rate of change and the change in woodland area. The land use changes in the Lueyang (LY, Shehong (SH and Fengtan (FT subcatchments were more dynamic than in the other subcatchments. The economy, population and macro-policy were the main factors responsible for driving the land use changes. The decrease in woodland area in the LY subcatchment corresponded with an increase in evapotranspiration (ET and with decreases in the other hydrological elements. Overall, the final changes in the hydrological elements in the LY, SH and FT subcatchments were not significant due to the average and compensation effects. The LY subcatchment was mainly affected by the average effect, whereas the SH and FT subcatchments were affected

  16. Changes of hydrological environment and their influences on coastal wetlands in the southern Laizhou Bay, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuliang; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Sun, Hongxia; Xia, Dongxing

    2006-08-01

    The structure and function of the coastal wetland ecosystem in the southern Laizhou Bay have been changed greatly and influenced by regional hydrological changes. The coastal wetlands have degraded significantly during the latest 30 years due to successive drought, decreasing of runoff, pollution, underground saline water intrusion, and aggravating marine disasters such as storm tides and sea level rising. Most archaic lakes have vanished, while artificial wetlands have been extending since natural coastal wetlands replaced by salt areas and ponds of shrimps and crabs. The pollution of sediments in inter-tidal wetlands and the pollution of water quality in sub-tidal wetlands are getting worse and therefore "red tides" happen more often than before. The biodiversity in the study area has been decreased. Further studies are still needed to protect the degraded coastal wetlands in the area.

  17. Direct versus indirect effects of tropospheric humidity changes on the hydrologic cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherwood, S C

    2010-01-01

    Abundant evidence indicates that tropospheric specific humidity increases in a warmer atmosphere, at rates roughly comparable to those at constant relative humidity. While the implications for the planetary energy budget and global warming are well recognized, it is the net atmospheric cooling (or surface heating) that controls the hydrologic cycle. Relative humidity influences this directly through gas-phase radiative transfer, and indirectly by affecting cloud cover (and its radiative effects) and convective heating. Simple calculations show that the two indirect impacts are larger than the direct impact by roughly one and two orders of magnitude respectively. Global or regional relative humidity changes could therefore have significant indirect impacts on energy and water cycles, especially by altering deep convection, even if they are too small to significantly affect global temperature. Studies of climate change should place greater emphasis on these indirect links, which may not be adequately represented in models.

  18. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle in Tana river basin to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutua, F.M.

    1998-01-01

    The Tana River basin in Kenya has four distinct climates along it's gradient from cool humid in mount Kenya region through arid and semi arid in the lower plains to semi humid coastal climate. From the highlands of mount Kenya to the plateau on the lowlands, the river traverses some sections which have high potential for hydro-electric power generation. The government has constructed water reovirus to collect water for electricity generation. The influence of the reovirus have also caused climate modification. The aim of the study was to investigate the sensitivity of the river flows in the Tana river to climate change. The study indicates that, as long as temperature increment of up to 2 degrees centigrade are accompanied by positive changes (greater than 10%) in rainfall over the basin, then the hydrologic cycle adjust itself accordingly to give a positive response (increased runoff) in terms of the river at the outlet

  19. Assessing land use and cover change effects on hydrological response in the river C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunes, A.

    2009-04-01

    Assessing the impacts of land use change, especially the role of vegetation, on hydrological response from the plot to the catchment scale has become one of the widespread issues of scientific concern,in recent decades. The continuous expansion of urban areas, the dramatic changes in land-cover and land-use patterns and the climate change which have taken place on a global scale explain this increasing interest. Although scientists have long recognized that changes in land use and land cover are important factors affecting water circulation and the spatial-temporal variations in the distribution of water resources, little is known about the quantitative relation between land use/coverage characteristics and runoff generation or processes. Therefore, a better understanding of how land-use changes impact watershed hydrological processes will become a crucial issue for the planning, management, and sustainable development of water resources. In the past decades, abandonment of marginal agricultural land has been a widespread phenomenon in Portugal, as well as in many other countries of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean countries. The abandonment of arable land typically leads to natural succession and to the development of shrub and woodland. Shrubs like Cytisus spp.usually establish in study area. A Quercus pyrenaica Willd. wood generally appears after a long time, about 3 or 4 decades. The general aim of this work is to analyse the temporal evolution of water supplies in a Côa basins (located between 41°00'' N and 40°15'' N and 7°15'' W and 6°55'' W Greenwich)and relate its behaviour with changes undergone by the plant cover and by the main climatic variables (temperatures and precipitation). To achieve this goal, dynamics on the land use and land cover were estimated after the second half of the 20th century. The hydrological response under different land uses and plant covers were monitored during 2005 and 2006, using small permanently establish bounded

  20. Land change in the Central Corn Belt Plains Ecoregion and hydrologic consequences in developed areas: 1939-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karstensen, Krista; Shaver, David; Alexander, Randal; Over, Thomas; Soong, David T.

    2013-01-01

    This report emphasizes the importance of a multi-disciplinary understanding of how land use and land cover can affect regional hydrology by collaboratively investigating how increases in developed land area may affect stream discharge by evaluating land-cover change from 1939 to 2000, urban housing density data from 1940 to 2010, and changes in annual peak streamflow from water years 1945 to 2009. The results and methods crosscut two mission areas of the U.S. Geological Survey (Climate and Land Use, Water) and can be used to better assess developed land change and hydrologic consequences, which can be used to better assess future management and mitigation strategies.

  1. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  2. Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustonen, Kaisa-Riikka; Mykrä, Heikki; Marttila, Hannu; Sarremejane, Romain; Veijalainen, Noora; Sippel, Kalle; Muotka, Timo; Hawkins, Charles P

    2018-06-01

    Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070-2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species' distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The hydrological function of upland swamps in eastern Australia: The role of geomorphic condition in regulating water storage and discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowley, Kirsten L.; Fryirs, Kirstie A.; Hose, Grant C.

    2018-06-01

    Temperate Highland Peat Swamps on Sandstone (THPSS) are a type of wetland found in low-order streams on the plateaus of eastern Australia. They are sediment and organic matter accumulation zones, which combined with a climate of high rainfall and low evaporation function as water storage systems. Changes to the geomorphic structure of these systems via incision and channelisation can have profound impacts on their hydrological function. The aim of this study was to develop an understanding of how changes to the geomorphic structure of these systems alter their hydrological function, measured as changes and variability in swamp water table levels and discharge. We monitored the water table levels and discharges of three intact and three channelised THPSS in the Blue Mountains between March 2015 and June 2016. We found that water levels in intact swamps were largely stable over the monitoring period. Water levels rose only in high rainfall events, returned quickly to antecedent levels after rain, and drawdown during dry periods was not significant. In contrast, the water table levels in channelised THPSS were highly variable. Water levels rose quickly after almost all rainfall events and declined significantly during dry periods. Discharge also showed marked differences with the channelised THPSS discharging 13 times more water than intact swamps, even during dry periods. Channelised THPSS also had flashier storm hydrographs than intact swamps. These results have profound implications for the capacity of these swamps to act as water storage reservoirs in the headwaters of catchments and for their ability to maintain base flow to downstream catchments during dry times. Changes to geomorphic structure and hydrological function also have important implications for a range of other swamp functions such as carbon storage, emission and exports, contaminant sorption, downstream water quality and biodiversity, as well as the overall fate of these swamps under a changing

  4. Channel evolution under changing hydrological regimes in anabranching reaches downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jianqiao; Zhang, Wei; Yuan, Jing; Fan, Yongyang

    2018-03-01

    Elucidating the influence of dams on fluvial processes can benefit river protection and basin management. Based on hydrological and topographical data, we analyzed channel evolution in anabranching reaches under changing hydrological regimes influenced by the Three Gorges Dam. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the channels of specific anabranching reaches were defined as flood trend channels or low-flow trend channels according to the distribution of their flow characteristics. The anabranching reaches were classified as T1 or T2. The former is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and branch channels, and the latter is characterized by the correspondence between the flood trend and main channels; 2) on the basis of the new classification, the discrepant patterns of channel evolution seen in anabranching reaches were unified into a pattern that showed flood trend channels shrinking and low-flow trend channels expanding; 3) flood abatement and the increased duration of moderate flow discharges are the main factors that affect channel adjustments in anabranching reaches after dam construction; and 4) in the next few decades, the pattern of channel evolution will remain the same as that of the Three Gorges Dam operation. That is, the morphology will fully adapt to a flow with a low coefficient of variation. Our results are of interest in the management of the Yangtze River and other rivers influenced by dams.

  5. Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

    2018-02-15

    The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Frozen Soil and Eco-hydrology in the Source Region of Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Y.; Yang, D.; Gao, B.

    2016-12-01

    The source region of Yellow River, located in the transition zone of discontinuous and continuous permafrost on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, has experienced dramatic climate change during the past decades. The long-term changes in the seasonally frozen ground remarkably affected the eco-hydrological processes in the source region and the water availability in the middle and lower reaches. In this study, we employed a geomorphology-based eco-hydrological model (GBEHM) to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change on the frozen soil and regional eco-hydrology. It was found that the air temperature has increased by 2.1 °C since the 1960s and most significantly during the recent decade (0.67 °C /10a), while there was no significant trend of the precipitation. Based on a 34-year (1981-2014) simulation, the maximum frozen soil depth was in the range of 0.7-2.1 m and decreased by 1.5-7.9 cm/10a because of the warming climate. The model simulation adequately reproduced the observed streamflow changes, including the drought period in the 1990s and wet period in the 2000s, and the variability in hydrological behavior was closely associated with the climate and landscape conditions. The vegetation responses to climate changes manifested as advancing green-up dates and increasing leaf area index at the initial stage of growing season. Our study shows that the ecohydrological processes are changing along with the frozen soil degradation in headwater areas on the Tibetan Plateau, which could influence the availability of water resources in the middle and lower reaches.

  7. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droogers, P.; Loon, van A.F.; Immerzeel, W.W.

    2008-01-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario

  8. Thresholds of glacier hydrologic change and emergent vulnerabilities in a tropical Andean waterscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, B. G.; Bury, J.; Carey, M.; McKenzie, J. M.; Huh, K. I.; Baraer, M.; Eddy, A.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past 50+ years, dramatic glacier mass loss in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, has been causing downstream hydrologic transformations, with implications for domestic, agricultural and industrial water resources. Coincidental expansion of social and economic development throughout the Santa River watershed, which drains into the Pacific Ocean, raises concerns about sustaining future water supplies. Hydrologic models predict water shortages decades in the future, but conflicts have already arisen in the watershed due to either real or perceived shortages. Moreover, increased water usage since 1950 suggests resilience to presumed thresholds given a concomitant decrease in supply. Therefore modeled thresholds do not align well with historical realities. Our collaborative research couples multiscalar observations of changes in glacier volume, hydrology, and land usage with social and economic data about perceptions of and responses to environmental change. We also examine various water withdrawal mechanisms and institutions transecting the entire watershed: agriculture, land use, irrigation, hydroelectricity generation, and mining. We quantify glacier volume loss using multi-temporal surface elevation maps of selected valley glaciers based on state-of-the-art laser altimetry (LIDAR), ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photogrammetry spanning 1962 to 2008. Results show glacier surface area loss is between 30% and 86%, while measured volume loss is 2 to 12 times greater than empirically derived scaling relationships predict. Based on historical runoff and glacier data, the upper Santa River watershed is found to be on the descending limb of a conceptual multi-decadal hydrograph. The actual distribution of dry season water supply is illustrated based on a 2011 synoptic survey of Santa River discharge from the coastal effluent to headwaters. Our results suggest that critical changes in glacier volume and water supply are not perceived or acknowledged consistently

  9. Hydrologic Responses to Projected Climate Change in Ecologically-Vulnerable Watersheds of the Gulf Coast, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the water cycle of the Gulf Coast watersheds in the United States, which contain some of the highest levels of biodiversity of all freshwater systems in North America. Understanding potential hydrologic responses to continued climate change in these watersheds is important for management of water resources and to sustain ecological diversity. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrologic processes and estimate the potential hydrological changes for the mid-21st century (2050s) and the late-21st century (2080s) in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds located in the Gulf Coast, USA. These estimates were based on downscaled future climate projections from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Models were calibrated and validated using observed data from 58, 19, and 14 streamflow gauges in the Mobile River, Apalachicola River, and Suwannee River watersheds, respectively. Evaluation indices including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and refined index of agreement (dr) were used to assess model quality. The mean values derived during calibration (NSE=0.68, R2=0.77, and dr=0.73) and validation (NSE=0.70, R2=0.78, and dr=0.74) of all watersheds indicated that the models performed well at simulating monthly streamflow. Our simulation results indicated an overall increase in mean annual streamflow for all the watersheds with a maximum increase in discharge of 28.6% for the Suwannee River watershed for RCP 4.5 during the 2080s, which is associated with a 6.8% increase in precipitation during the same time period. We observed an overall warming (4.2oC) with an increase in future precipitation (3.8%) in all watersheds during the 2080s under the worst-case RCP 8.5 scenario compared to the historical time period. Despite an increase in future precipitation, surface

  10. Changing seasonality of Arctic hydrology disrupts key biotic linkages in Arctic aquatic ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, L.; MacKenzie, C.; Peterson, B. J.; Fishscape Project

    2011-12-01

    Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) is an important circumpolar species that provide a model system for understanding the impacts of changing seasonality on arctic ecosystem function. Grayling serve as food for other biota, including lake trout, birds and humans, and act as top-down controls in stream ecosystems. In Arctic tundra streams, grayling spend their summers in streams but are obligated to move back into deep overwintering lakes in the fall. Climatic change that affects the seasonality of river hydrology could have a significant impact on grayling populations: grayling may leave overwintering lakes sooner in the spring and return later in the fall due to a longer open water season, but the migration could be disrupted by drought due to increased variability in discharge. In turn, a shorter overwintering season may impact lake trout dynamics in the lakes, which may rely on the seasonal inputs of stream nutrients in the form of migrating grayling into these oligotrophic lakes. To assess how shifting seasonality of Arctic river hydrology may disrupt key trophic linkages within and between lake and stream components of watersheds on the North Slope of the Brooks Mountain Range, Alaska, we have undertaken new work on grayling and lake trout population and food web dynamics. We use Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags coupled with stream-width antenna units to monitor grayling movement across Arctic tundra watersheds during the summer, and into overwintering habitat in the fall. Results indicate that day length may prime grayling migration readiness, but that flooding events are likely the cue grayling use to initiate migration in to overwintering lakes. Many fish used high discharge events in the stream as an opportunity to move into lakes. Stream and lake derived stable isotopes also indicate that lake trout rely on these seasonally transported inputs of stream nutrients for growth. Thus, changes in the seasonality of river hydrology may have broader

  11. Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

    2014-05-01

    Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy

  12. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  13. Hydrologic impacts of changes in climate and glacier extent in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; McGrath, D.; Arendt, A.; Kienholz, C.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution regional-scale hydrologic models were used to quantify the response of late 21st century runoff from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) watershed to changes in regional climate and glacier extent. NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data were combined with five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs) for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) to develop meteorological forcing for the period 2070-2099. A hypsographic model was used to estimate future glacier extent given assumed equilibrium line altitude (ELA) increases of 200 and 400 m. GCM predictions show an increase in annual precipitation of 12% for RCP 4.5 and 21% for RCP 8.5, and an increase in annual temperature of 2.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C for RCP 8.5, averaged across the GOA. Scenarios with perturbed climate and glaciers predict annual GOA-wide runoff to increase by 9% for RCP4.5/ELA200 case and 14% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. The glacier runoff decreased by 14% for RCP4.5/ELA200 and by 34% for the RCP8.5/ELA400 case. Intermodel variability in annual runoff was found to be approximately twice the variability in precipitation input. Additionally, there are significant changes in runoff partitioning and increases in snowpack runoff are dominated by increases in rain-on-snow events. We present results aggregated across the entire GOA and also for individual watersheds to illustrate the range in hydrologic regime changes and explore the sensitivities of these results by independently perturbing only climate forcings and only glacier cover.

  14. Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

    2017-12-01

    Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

  15. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano

    2015-04-01

    making and in hydraulic design. The obtained results highlight the relevant impact of uncertainty in regional estimates of hydrological signatures on posterior parameters distribution and on uncertainty bounds of simulated peak discharges. The results of the continuous simulation, generally, better matched those of the statistical flood frequency analysis, thus this approach is recommended for the flood frequency analysis in the study area. REFERENCES Biondi D, Claps P, Cruscomagno F, De Luca DL, Fiorentino M, Ganora D, Gioia A, Iacobellis V, Laio F, Manfreda S, Versace P (2012). Dopo il VAPI: la valutazione delle massime portate al colmo di piena nell'esperienza del POR Calabria (in Italian). Proceedings of XXXIII Italian National Conference on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Engineering, Brescia - Italy, 10-15 September 2012. Bulygina N, McIntyre N, Wheater HS (2009). Conditioning rainfall- runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:893-904. doi:10.5194/hess-13-893-2009. Bulygina N, McIntyre N, Wheater H (2011). Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall-runoff model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes. Water Resour Res 47: W02503. doi:10.1029/2010WR009240. Gupta HV, Wagener T, Liu Y (2008). Reconciling theory with observations: elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation. Hydrol Process 22: 3802-3813. doi:10.1002/hyp.6989. Laio F, Ganora D, Claps P, Galeati G (2011). Spatially smooth regional estimation of the flood frequency curve (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 408: 67-77.

  16. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions. Final report, November 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-12-31

    A study is described on the hydrological and geotechnical behavior of an oil shale solid waste. The objective was to obtain information which can be used to assess the environmental impacts of oil shale solid waste disposal in the Green River Basin. The spent shale used in this study was combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas process by Rio Blanco Oil Shale Company, Inc. Laboratory bench-scale testing included index properties, such as grain size distribution and Atterberg limits, and tests for engineering properties including hydraulic conductivity and shear strength. Large-scale tests were conducted on model spent shale waste embankments to evaluate hydrological response, including infiltration, runoff, and seepage. Large-scale tests were conducted at a field site in western Colorado and in the Environmental Simulation Laboratory (ESL)at the University of Wyoming. The ESL tests allowed the investigators to control rainfall and temperature, providing information on the hydrological response of spent shale under simulated severe climatic conditions. All experimental methods, materials, facilities, and instrumentation are described in detail, and results are given and discussed. 34 refs.

  17. Future Flows Climate: an ensemble of 1-km climate change projections for hydrological application in Great Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The dataset Future Flows Climate was developed as part of the project ''Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications, and to enable climate change uncertainty and climate variability to be accounted for in the assessment of their possible impacts on the environment.

    Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE that is part of the basis of UKCP09 and includes projections in available precipitation (water available to hydrological processes after snow and ice storages have been accounted for and potential evapotranspiration. It corresponds to an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1950 to December 2098, each a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3. Data are provided on a 1-km grid over the HadRM3 land areas at a daily (available precipitation and monthly (PE time step as netCDF files.

    Because systematic biases in temperature and precipitation were found between HadRM3-PPE and gridded temperature and precipitation observations for the 1962–1991 period, a monthly bias correction procedure was undertaken, based on a linear correction for temperature and a quantile-mapping correction (using the gamma distribution for precipitation followed by a spatial downscaling. Available precipitation was derived from the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature time series using a simple elevation-dependant snow-melt model. Potential evapotranspiration time series were calculated for each month using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equations and bias-corrected temperature, cloud cover, relative humidity and wind speed from HadRM3-PPE along with latitude of the grid and the day of the year.

    Future Flows Climate is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. It is the

  18. Acoustics Reveals the Presence of a Macrozooplankton Biocline in the Bay of Biscay in Response to Hydrological Conditions and Predator-Prey Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lezama-Ochoa, Ainhoa; Irigoien, Xabier; Chaigneau, Alexis; Quiroz, Zaida; Lebourges-Dhaussy, Anne; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    Bifrequency acoustic data, hydrological measurements and satellite data were used to study the vertical distribution of macrozooplankton in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the hydrological conditions and fish distribution during spring 2009. The most noticeable result was the observation of a ‘biocline’ during the day i.e., the interface where zooplankton biomass changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. The biocline separated the surface layer, almost devoid of macrozooplankton, from the macrozooplankton-rich deeper layers. It is a specific vertical feature which ties in with the classic diel vertical migration pattern. Spatiotemporal correlations between macrozooplankton and environmental variables (photic depth, thermohaline vertical structure, stratification index and chlorophyll-a) indicate that no single factor explains the macrozooplankton vertical distribution. Rather a set of factors, the respective influence of which varies from region to region depending on the habitat characteristics and the progress of the spring stratification, jointly influence the distribution. In this context, the macrozooplankton biocline is potentially a biophysical response to the search for a particular depth range where light attenuation, thermohaline vertical structure and stratification conditions together provide a suitable alternative to the need for expending energy in reaching deeper water without the risk of being eaten. PMID:24505374

  19. Acoustics reveals the presence of a macrozooplankton biocline in the Bay of Biscay in response to hydrological conditions and predator-prey relationships.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainhoa Lezama-Ochoa

    Full Text Available Bifrequency acoustic data, hydrological measurements and satellite data were used to study the vertical distribution of macrozooplankton in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the hydrological conditions and fish distribution during spring 2009. The most noticeable result was the observation of a 'biocline' during the day i.e., the interface where zooplankton biomass changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. The biocline separated the surface layer, almost devoid of macrozooplankton, from the macrozooplankton-rich deeper layers. It is a specific vertical feature which ties in with the classic diel vertical migration pattern. Spatiotemporal correlations between macrozooplankton and environmental variables (photic depth, thermohaline vertical structure, stratification index and chlorophyll-a indicate that no single factor explains the macrozooplankton vertical distribution. Rather a set of factors, the respective influence of which varies from region to region depending on the habitat characteristics and the progress of the spring stratification, jointly influence the distribution. In this context, the macrozooplankton biocline is potentially a biophysical response to the search for a particular depth range where light attenuation, thermohaline vertical structure and stratification conditions together provide a suitable alternative to the need for expending energy in reaching deeper water without the risk of being eaten.

  20. Acoustics reveals the presence of a macrozooplankton biocline in the Bay of Biscay in response to hydrological conditions and predator-prey relationships.

    KAUST Repository

    Lezama-Ochoa, Ainhoa; Irigoien, Xabier; Chaigneau, Alexis; Quiroz, Zaida; Lebourges-Dhaussy, Anne; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2014-01-01

    Bifrequency acoustic data, hydrological measurements and satellite data were used to study the vertical distribution of macrozooplankton in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the hydrological conditions and fish distribution during spring 2009. The most noticeable result was the observation of a 'biocline' during the day i.e., the interface where zooplankton biomass changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. The biocline separated the surface layer, almost devoid of macrozooplankton, from the macrozooplankton-rich deeper layers. It is a specific vertical feature which ties in with the classic diel vertical migration pattern. Spatiotemporal correlations between macrozooplankton and environmental variables (photic depth, thermohaline vertical structure, stratification index and chlorophyll-a) indicate that no single factor explains the macrozooplankton vertical distribution. Rather a set of factors, the respective influence of which varies from region to region depending on the habitat characteristics and the progress of the spring stratification, jointly influence the distribution. In this context, the macrozooplankton biocline is potentially a biophysical response to the search for a particular depth range where light attenuation, thermohaline vertical structure and stratification conditions together provide a suitable alternative to the need for expending energy in reaching deeper water without the risk of being eaten.

  1. Acoustics reveals the presence of a macrozooplankton biocline in the Bay of Biscay in response to hydrological conditions and predator-prey relationships.

    KAUST Repository

    Lezama-Ochoa, Ainhoa

    2014-02-04

    Bifrequency acoustic data, hydrological measurements and satellite data were used to study the vertical distribution of macrozooplankton in the Bay of Biscay in relation to the hydrological conditions and fish distribution during spring 2009. The most noticeable result was the observation of a \\'biocline\\' during the day i.e., the interface where zooplankton biomass changes more rapidly with depth than it does in the layers above or below. The biocline separated the surface layer, almost devoid of macrozooplankton, from the macrozooplankton-rich deeper layers. It is a specific vertical feature which ties in with the classic diel vertical migration pattern. Spatiotemporal correlations between macrozooplankton and environmental variables (photic depth, thermohaline vertical structure, stratification index and chlorophyll-a) indicate that no single factor explains the macrozooplankton vertical distribution. Rather a set of factors, the respective influence of which varies from region to region depending on the habitat characteristics and the progress of the spring stratification, jointly influence the distribution. In this context, the macrozooplankton biocline is potentially a biophysical response to the search for a particular depth range where light attenuation, thermohaline vertical structure and stratification conditions together provide a suitable alternative to the need for expending energy in reaching deeper water without the risk of being eaten.

  2. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, Ian M; Maxwell, Reed M

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices. (letter)

  3. Identifying hydrological pre-conditions and rainfall triggers of slope failures for 2014 storm events in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Zenaida; Bogaard, Thom; Busuioc, Aristita; Burcea, Sorin; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Sandric, Ionut

    2015-04-01

    Like in many parts of the world, in Romania, landslides represent recurrent phenomena that produce numerous damages to infrastructure every few years. Various studies on landslide occurrence in the Curvature Subcarpathians reveal that rainfall represents the most important triggering factor for landslides. Depending on rainfall characteristics and environmental factors different types of landslides were recorded in the Ialomita Subcarpathians: slumps, earthflows and complex landslides. This area, located in the western part of Curvature Subcarpathians, is characterized by a very complex geology whose main features are represented by the nappes system, the post tectonic covers, the diapirism phenomena and vertical faults. This work aims to investigate hydrological pre-conditions and rainfall characteristics which triggered slope failures in 2014 in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania. Hydrological pre-conditions were investigated by means of water balance analysis and low flow techniques, while spatial and temporal patterns of rainfalls were estimated using radar data and six rain gauges. Additionally, six soil moisture stations that are fitted with volumetric soil moisture sensors and temperature soil sensors were used to estimate the antecedent soil moisture conditions.

  4. Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin, NE-Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Baumhauer, Roland; Schütt, Brigitta

    2011-02-01

    The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. In the Gallocanta Basin, climate change and the distinct and continuing land use change since Spain joined the EU in 1986 have created an environment that is in a more or less constant state of transition. This highlights two challenges faced by hydrologists and climatologists involved in developing water management tools for the Gallocanta Basin in particular, but also other areas with sensitive and rapidly changing environments. Hydrologists have to understand the processes and the spatial and temporal patterns of surface-climate interaction in a watershed to assess the impact of climate change on its hydrology. Climatologists, on the other hand, have to develop climate models

  5. Summary of hydrologic conditions in the Reedy Creek Improvement District, central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    German, Edward R.

    1986-01-01

    The Reedy Creek Improvement is an area of about 43 square miles in southwestern Orange and northwestern Osceola Counties, Florida. A systematic program of hydrologic data collection in the Reedy Creek Improvement District and vicinity provided data for assessing the impact of development, mostly the Walt Disney World Theme Park and related development on the hydrology. Data collected include stream discharge, water quality, groundwater levels, lakes levels, and climatological. Rainfall has been less than the long-term average in the Reedy Creek Improvement District since development began in 1968. The deficient rainfall has reduced stream discharge, lowered groundwater and lake levels, and possibly affected water quality in the area. Groundwater levels and lake levels have declined since 1970. However, the coincidence of below-average rainfall with the period of development makes it impossible to assess the effect of pumping on declines. Occurrence of toxic metals does not relate to development, but distribution of insecticides and herbicides does appear to relate to development. Specific conductance, phosphorous, and nitrate concentrations have increased in Reedy Creek since 1970, probably due to disposal of treated wastes. (USGS)

  6. Recent climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological changes over the interior of western Canada: a synthesis and review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Carey, S. K.; Chun, K. P.

    2015-08-01

    It is well-established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid to high-latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological Earth system components in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve predictive capacity. This paper provides an integrated review of the observed changes in these Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid or late-20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and datasets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Systematic warming and significant changes to precipitation, snow and ice regimes are unambiguous. However, integrated effects on streamflow are complex. It is argued that further diagnosis is required before predictions of future change can be made with confidence.

  7. Biomass Burning, Land-Cover Change, and the Hydrological Cycle in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ichoku, Charles; Ellison, Luke T.; Willmot, K. Elena; Matsui, Toshihisa; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Gatebe, Charles K.; Wang, Jun; Wilcox, Eric M.; Lee, Jejung; Adegoke, Jimmy; hide

    2016-01-01

    The Northern Sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, which accounts for 20%-25%of the global carbon emissions from biomass burning, also suffers from frequent drought episodes and other disruptions to the hydrological cycle whose adverse societal impacts have been widely reported during the last several decades. This paper presents a conceptual framework of the NSSA regional climate system components that may be linked to biomass burning, as well as detailed analyses of a variety of satellite data for 2001-2014 in conjunction with relevant model-assimilated variables. Satellite fire detections in NSSA show that the vast majority (greater than 75%) occurs in the savanna and woody savanna land-cover types. Starting in the 2006-2007 burning season through the end of the analyzed data in 2014, peak burning activity showed a net decrease of 2-7% /yr in different parts of NSSA, especially in the savanna regions. However, fire distribution shows appreciable coincidence with land-cover change. Although there is variable mutual exchange of different land cover types, during 2003-2013, cropland increased at an estimated rate of 0.28% /yr of the total NSSA land area, with most of it (0.18% /yr) coming from savanna.During the last decade, conversion to croplands increased in some areas classified as forests and wetlands, posing a threat to these vital and vulnerable ecosystems. Seasonal peak burning is anti-correlated with annual water-cycle indicators such as precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation greenness, and evapotranspiration, except in humid West Africa (5 deg-10 deg latitude),where this anti-correlation occurs exclusively in the dry season and burning virtually stops when monthly mean precipitation reaches 4 mm/d. These results provide observational evidence of changes in land-cover and hydrological variables that are consistent with feedbacks from biomass burning in NSSA, and encourage more synergistic modeling and observational studies that can elaborate this feedback

  8. Hydrologic and landscape changes in the Middle Ebro River (NE Spain: implications for restoration and management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cabezas

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The changes of landscape (1927–2003, discharge regime and anthropic activities with the river-floodplain of one reach at the Middle Ebro River (NE Spain were investigated with the objective to identify the factors that best explain the natural ecotope succession and propose a realistic restoration option with consideration of the landscape dynamics during the last century and the socio-economic context. Our results indicate that hydrological and landscape patterns have been dramatically changed during the last century as a consequence of human alteration of the fluvial dynamics within the studied reach. The magnitude and variability of river discharge events have decreased at the end of the last century, and flood protection structures have disrupted the river floodplain connectivity. As a result, the succesional pathways of riparian ecotopes have been heavily modified because natural rejuvenation no longer takes place, resulting in decreased landscape diversity. It is apparent from these data that floodplain restoration must be incorporated as a significant factor into river management plans if a more natural functioning wants to be retrieved. The ecotope structure and dynamics of the 1927–1957 period should be adopted as the guiding image, whereas current hydrologic and landscape (dykes, raised surfaces patterns should be considered. Under the current socio-economic context, the more realistic option seems to create a dynamic river corridor reallocating dykes and lowering floodplain heights. The extent of this river corridor should adapt to the restored flow regime, although periodic economic investments could be an option if the desired self-sustained dynamism is not reached.

  9. Detecting and taking into account possible impacts of climate change on hydrological extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renard, B.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is widely considered as a reality by scientists. Nevertheless, impacts on hydrological extremes are more difficult to observe and to forecast. The aim of this thesis is to answer the following questions: How to detect changes in hydro-climatic series? What are the observed changes for extreme discharges in France? How to take into account possible changes in frequency analysis? These objectives refer to both local and regional scales. This paper describes the developments related to the third question. In a first step, the concept of return period is revisited in a non-stationary context. Frequency analysis methods are then updated in order to account for evolutions in time. This is achieved by modelling trends affecting the distribution parameters. Parameter estimation uses the Bayesian formalism, which is a convenient tool for quantifying the uncertainty related to the stationarity hypothesis. This approach can be generalized at the regional scale, by means of non-stationary regional models. Such models are more general than the model underlying the index flood method. However, results of such a regional analysis are affected by the spatial dependence existing between studied sites. Impacts of this dependence on quantile estimates are highlighted, and a first approach is proposed in order to explicitly model spatial dependence. (author)

  10. Hydrologic Conditions that Influence Streamflow Losses in a Karst Region of the Upper Peace River, Polk County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metz, P.A.; Lewelling, B.R.

    2009-01-01

    The upper Peace River from Bartow to Fort Meade, Florida, is described as a groundwater recharge area, reflecting a reversal from historical groundwater discharge patterns that existed prior to the 1950s. The upper Peace River channel and floodplain are characterized by extensive karst development, with numerous fractures, crevasses, and sinks that have been eroded in the near-surface and underlying carbonate bedrock. With the reversal in groundwater head gradients, river water is lost to the underlying groundwater system through these karst features. An investigation was conducted to evaluate the hydrologic conditions that influence streamflow losses in the karst region of the upper Peace River. The upper Peace River is located in a basin that has been altered substantially by phosphate mining and increases in groundwater use. These alterations have changed groundwater flow patterns and caused streamflow declines through time. Hydrologic factors that have had the greatest influence on streamflow declines in the upper Peace River include the lowering of the potentiometric surfaces of the intermediate aquifer system and Upper Floridan aquifer beneath the riverbed elevation due to below-average rainfall (droughts), increases in groundwater use, and the presence of numerous karst features in the low-water channel and floodplain that enhance the loss of streamflow. Seepage runs conducted along the upper Peace River, from Bartow to Fort Meade, indicate that the greatest streamflow losses occurred along an approximate 2-mile section of the river beginning about 1 mile south of the Peace River at Bartow gaging station. Along the low-water and floodplain channel of this 2-mile section, there are about 10 prominent karst features that influence streamflow losses. Losses from the individual karst features ranged from 0.22 to 16 cubic feet per second based on measurements made between 2002 and 2007. The largest measured flow loss for all the karst features was about 50 cubic

  11. Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masood, M.; Yeh, P. J.-F.; Hanasaki, N.; Takeuchi, K.

    2014-06-01

    The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basins and might ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on basin-scale hydrology by using well-constrained hydrologic modelling has rarely been conducted for GBM basins due to the lack of data for model calibration and validation. In this study, a macro-scale hydrologic model H08 has been applied regionally over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution (~0.5 km) DEM data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via analyzing model parameter sensitivity and validated based on a long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impact of climate change on not only the runoff, but also the basin-scale hydrology including evapotranspiration, soil moisture and net radiation have been assessed in this study through three time-slice experiments; present-day (1979-2003), near-future (2015-2039) and far-future (2075-2099) periods. Results shows that, by the end of 21st century (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~3°C (b) the changes of mean precipitation are projected to be +14.0, +10.4, and +15.2%, and the changes of mean runoff to be +14, +15, and +18% in the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna basin respectively (c) evapotranspiration is predicted to increase significantly for the entire GBM basins (Brahmaputra: +14.4%, Ganges: +9.4%, Meghna: +8.8%) due to increased net radiation (Brahmaputra: +6%, Ganges: +5.9%, Meghna: +3.3%) as well as warmer air temperature. Changes of hydrologic variables will be larger in dry season (November-April) than that in wet season (May-October). Amongst three basins, Meghna shows the largest hydrological

  12. Prediction of hydrological responds to climate changes in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Ren, L.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, M.; Liu, Y.; Jiang, S.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Climate changes have direct effects on hydrological cycle, with the increasing temperature and seasonal shift of precipitation. Therefore, understanding of how climate change may affect the population and water resources and economic development is critical to the water and food security for China. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate changes on water resources of the upper basin of Yangtze River (the area controlled by the Yichang hydrological station) using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model driven by composite observations (1961-2005) and projections of eight CMIP5 models under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The raw eight CMIP5 models have been downscaled by the equidistant cumulative distribution functions (EDCDF) statistical downscaling approach from 1961 to 2099. The assessment of the performance of model simulated precipitation and temperature were calculated by comparing to the observations during the historical period (1961-2005). For the same variables, eight CMIP5 models for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 downscaled by EDCDF method were generated during the future period (2006-2099). Overall, the VIC model performed well in monthly streamflow simulation, with the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSCE) 0.92 and 0.97 for calibration and validation, respectively. The annual precipitation is projected to increase by 6.3mm and 8.6mm per decade and the annual temperature will increase by 0.22 °C and 0.53°C per decade (2006-2099) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In the future period, The total runoff of the study basins would either remain stable or moderately increase by 2.7% and 22.4% per decade, the evapotranspiration increase by 2mm and 13mm per decade, and the soil moisture will reduce by -0.1% and -7.4% per decade under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The changes of model-simulated soil moisture, runoff, and evapotranspiration suggest that there probably be an increasing risk of drought in

  13. Assessment of 21st century change of climate drivers to hydrological change across the Appalachian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, R.; Zegre, N.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric water supply and demand largely drives the available water in the land surface. Precipitation (P) is the main supply of water to the land surface, while water demand largely depends on energy supply. Most frameworks that analyze climate change have limit their scope to changes in P and temperature as an indicator of energy. However, atmospheric water demand is not only dependent on temperature but also on variables such as solar radiation, air humidity and wind. For this study, we use the downscaled GCM outputs of (P) and calculate atmospheric water demand by aggregating solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind as potential evapotranspiration (EP) using the Penman-Monteith equation across the Appalachian Region. We investigate absolute changes in P and EP and changes in their relation or aridity index (AI=EP/P) to spatially determine places becoming wetter or drier. Moreover, we explore how their changes are distributed throughout the year, i.e. changes in the seasonality for P and widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP. The changes in seasonality can act as a further indicator of the partition of precipitation into evaporation or land surface water. Changes of precipitation that occur during summer are likely to be partitioned towards evapotranspiration whereas changes in winter are likely to be absorbed by land surface components of storage and runoff. Furthermore, widening of the intra-annual cycle of EP means that there will be water demand for a longer part of the year (earlier in spring and later in autumn). Our results show that places with lower mean annual temperature are likely to experience larger temperature changes. Regarding the AI, the Eastern Coasts of North and South Carolina, and Georgia as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to get drier. The states of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and inland North and South Carolina and Alabama are likely to become wetter, with West Virginia

  14. Effects of Land Cover Changes to the Quantity of Water Supply and Hydrologic Cycle using Water Balance Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caja CC

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydrologic cycle is a recurring consequence of different forms of movement of water and changes of its physical state on a given area of the earth. The land cover of a certain area is a significant factor affecting the watershed hydrology. This also affects the quantity of water supply within the watershed. This study assessed the impacts of the changing land cover of the Ipo watershed, a part of the Angat-Ipo-La Mesa water system which is the main source of Metro Manila’s water supply. The environmental impacts were assessed using the interaction of vegetation cover changes and the output flow rates in Ipo watershed. Using hydrologic modelling system, the hydrological balance using rainfall, vegetation and terrain data of the watershed was simulated. Over the years, there has been a decreasing land cover within the watershed caused mostly by deforestation and other human activities. This significant change in the land cover resulted to extreme increase in water discharge at all streams and rivers in the watershed and the water balance of the area were affected as saturation and shape of the land terrain changes.

  15. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  16. A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadu Pokhrel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

  17. Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; hide

    2018-01-01

    We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

  18. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  19. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Aloysius

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016–2035 and mid-century (2046–2065. We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean – min and max – across model ensembles over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5 are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  20. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

    2017-08-01

    Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  1. Hydrologic connections between environmental and societal change at the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, B. B.; Harman, C. J.; Kipnis, E. L.; Liu, T.; Bernau, J. A.; Horel, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Bonneville Salt Flats (BSF) is an ephemeral and valued salt pan in northwestern Utah where a century of land speed racing and potash mining have created a complex and intertwined social and hydrologic system. The character of BSF changes on daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and geologic time scales in response to fluctuations in water balance, solute flux, and groundwater flow which is impacted by both local meteorology and water management associated with potash mining. In addition, the texture of the salt surface is changed by land use including racing activities, which impacts water fluxes through the crust. Ongoing research is focused on characterizing physical changes in the BSF environment and attributing observed changes in the landscape to specific processes and drivers. Five years of field observations and sampling, analyses of satellite imagery dating back the 1980s, and geochemical analysis of surface brines have shown that spatiotemporal changes in surface water and fluctuations in the surface salt footprint are linked to both climate and land use. Climate data over the last 30 years are examined to identify annual patterns in surface water balance at BSF to identify annual and seasonal climate constraints on flooding, evaporation, and desiccation cycles. A new weather station installed in the Fall of 2016 in the middle of BSF allows for unprecedented analyses of halite surface dynamics. Spatiotemporally dispersed stable isotope analyses of BSF surface brine samples constrain brine sources and evolution. An understanding of the processes that change the surface composition and texture through time inform interpretation of subsurface saline deposits at BSF. The wide range of temporal and spatial scales of observation help to guide to best management practices of this iconic natural resource.

  2. Change in frozen soils and its effect on regional hydrology, upper Heihe basin, northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Bing; Yang, Dawen; Qin, Yue; Wang, Yuhan; Li, Hongyi; Zhang, Yanlin; Zhang, Tingjun

    2018-02-01

    Frozen ground has an important role in regional hydrological cycles and ecosystems, particularly on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which is characterized by high elevations and a dry climate. This study modified a distributed, physically based hydrological model and applied it to simulate long-term (1971-2013) changes in frozen ground its the effects on hydrology in the upper Heihe basin, northeastern QTP. The model was validated against data obtained from multiple ground-based observations. Based on model simulations, we analyzed spatio-temporal changes in frozen soils and their effects on hydrology. Our results show that the area with permafrost shrank by 8.8 % (approximately 500 km2), predominantly in areas with elevations between 3500 and 3900 m. The maximum depth of seasonally frozen ground decreased at a rate of approximately 0.032 m decade-1, and the active layer thickness over the permafrost increased by approximately 0.043 m decade-1. Runoff increased significantly during the cold season (November-March) due to an increase in liquid soil moisture caused by rising soil temperatures. Areas in which permafrost changed into seasonally frozen ground at high elevations showed especially large increases in runoff. Annual runoff increased due to increased precipitation, the base flow increased due to changes in frozen soils, and the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly due to increased precipitation and soil warming. The groundwater storage showed an increasing trend, indicating that a reduction in permafrost extent enhanced the groundwater recharge.

  3. Understanding Nutrient Processing Under Similar Hydrologic Conditions Along a River Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garayburu-Caruso, V. A.; Mortensen, J.; Van Horn, D. J.; Gonzalez-Pinzon, R.

    2015-12-01

    Eutrophication is one of the main causes of water impairment across the US. The fate of nutrients in streams is typically described by the dynamic coupling of physical processes and biochemical processes. However, isolating each of these processes and determining its contribution to the whole system is challenging due to the complexity of the physical, chemical and biological domains. We conducted column experiments seeking to understand nutrient processing in shallow sediment-water interactions along representative sites of the Jemez River-Rio Grande continuum (eight stream orders), in New Mexico (USA). For each stream order, we used a set of 6 columns packed with 3 different sediments, i.e., Silica Cone Density Sand ASTM D 1556 (0.075-2.00 mm), gravel (> 2mm) and native sediments from each site. We incubated the sediments for three months and performed tracer experiments in the laboratory under identical flow conditions, seeking to normalize the physical processes along the river continuum. We added a short-term pulse injection of NO3, resazurin and NaCl to each column and determined metabolism and NO3 processing using the Tracer Additions for Spiraling Curve Characterization method (TASCC). Our methods allowed us to study how changes in bacterial communities and sediment composition along the river continuum define nutrient processing.

  4. Assessing the hydrological impacts of agricultural changes upstream of the Tunisian World Heritage sea-connected Ichkeul Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aouissi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in agricultural land use and practices as a controlling driver of hydrologic response and as a source of diffuse pollution, are studied in the Joumine River basin, discharging into the Ichkeul Lake, northern Tunisia, a UNESCO World Heritage site since 1979. The lake is characterized by a very specific hydrological functioning based on a seasonal alternation of water levels and salinity through its link to the Mediterranean Sea. Three Landsat images, in situ surveys and SWAT modelling were used to simulate and assess streamflows and nitrate loads under retrospective land uses.

  5. Using hydrologic landscape classification to assess streamflow vulnerability to changes in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Identifying regions with similar hydrology is useful for assessing water quality and quantity across the U.S., especially areas that are difficult or costly to monitor. For example, hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have been used to map streamflow variability and assess the spatial di...

  6. Assessment of the effect of climate change on the hydrological cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt

    , implying that when doing a future impact study, hydrological predictions could be compromised when using hydrological models calibrated on present time series. The hydrological response to a future high-end emission scenario was also explored. The hydrological model simulations and drought indices analyses...... showed longer and dryer periods leading to enhanced root zone dryness, lowered river discharge, and decreasing groundwater head elevation increasing the risk of stream flow drought and crop failure. In contrast, wetter winters will lead to increased flood risks. Finally, the influence of choosing...... a specific impact study setup was also investigated by simulating and analysing results from three factors; four climate models in combinations with three hydrological models and four land use scenarios. Results showed that the climate model was the dominant uncertainty factor on stream flow and hydraulic...

  7. Changes in the hydrological status of the basin due to the application of erosion control works

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radonjić Jasmina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Protection of land with vegetation is the primary factor in the fight against water erosion with necessary application of biotechnical, technical, administrative and planning measures. One of the first basins to be treated with works for the protection against erosion and torrent control is the Gradasnica River basin. The basic parameters to display the changes of the hydrological status of the land are the state of erosion, the change of erosion-coefficient, annual sediment yield, specific annual sediment discharge through the hydrographic network, the value of the runoff curve number and value of the maximal discharge. Works on protection from erosion and regulations of torrents have influenced the decrease in erosion coefficient values from strong erosion (Z=0.99 to the value of weak erosion (Z=0.40, as well as the reduction of the maximum discharge value from Qmax(1956=108,12m3/s to the value of Qmax(2014=87.2 m3/s.

  8. Assessment on Hydrologic Response by Climate Change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayzonee Ligaray

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The Chao Phraya River in Thailand has been greatly affected by climate change and the occurrence of extreme flood events, hindering its economic development. This study assessed the hydrological responses of the Chao Phraya River basin under several climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to simulate the streamflow using meteorological and observed data over a nine-year period from 2003 to 2011. The SWAT model produced an acceptable performance for calibration and validation, yielding Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE values greater than 0.5. Precipitation scenarios yielded streamflow variations that corresponded to the change of rainfall intensity and amount of rainfall, while scenarios with increased air temperatures predicted future water shortages. High CO2 concentration scenarios incorporated plant responses that led to a dramatic increase in streamflow. The greenhouse gas emission scenarios increased the streamflow variations to 6.8%, 41.9%, and 38.4% from the reference period (2003–2011. This study also provided a framework upon which the peak flow can be managed to control the nonpoint sources during wet season. We hope that the future climate scenarios presented in this study could provide predictive information for the river basin.

  9. What will be the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology in France by 2070?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauveau, Mathilde; Chazot, Sebastien; David, Julian; Norotte, Thomas; Perrin, Charles; Bourgin, Pierre-Yves; Sauquet, Eric; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Rouchy, Nathalie; Martin, Eric; Maugis, Pascal; De Lacaze, Xavier

    2013-01-01

    Within the Explore 2070 project, an evaluation of the possible impacts of climate change on surface water between the 1961-1990 reference period and the 2046-2065 period was carried out in continental France and i n overseas departments on the basis of the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, seven general circulation models an d two hydrological models (Isba-Modcou and GR4J). In continental France, results indicate: (1) a possible increase in ai r temperature between +1.4 deg. C and +3 deg. C; (2) an uncertain evolution of precipitation, most models however agreeing on a decreasing trend in summer precipitation; (3) a significant decrease (10% to 40%) of mean annual flows at the country scale, especially pronounced in the Seine-Normandie and Adour-Garonne districts; (4) a strong decrease in summer lo w flows in most basins; (5) more heterogeneous and less significant evolutions for floods. A special care was given to the quantification of the uncertainties linked to these results. They provide an indication of the significance of projected changes. The evolutions calculated in the overseas zones can be considered non-significant given the level of uncertainty linked to the hydro-climatic modelling chain. These results urge to implement adaptation strategies based on a better management of water resources, among others. (authors)

  10. Investigating the Effects of Land Cover Change on the Hydrology of the Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twine, T. E.; Coe, M. T.; Lenters, J. D.; Kucharik, C. J.; Donner, S.; Foley, J. A.

    2001-12-01

    Humans have greatly altered the Earth's landscape since the beginning of sedentary agriculture. Through the conversion of forests and grasslands to croplands and pasture, human land use activities have changed biogeochemical cycles including the water cycle. Using IBIS, a global land surface model with 0.5-degree resolution (Foley et al., 1996; Kucharik et al., 2000), and HYDRA, a runoff-routing algorithm with 5-minute resolution (Coe, 2000), we have studied how land cover change may affect the hydrology of the Mississippi River Basin. The IBIS model describes physical, physiological, and ecological processes occurring in vegetative canopies and soils. Through forcing from climate data and vegetation and soil properties, IBIS simulates energy, water, and biogeochemical cycles at small time-steps (30-60 minutes). Lenters et al. (2000) have validated the IBIS-modeled water budget over the Mississippi River Basin at several scales and HYDRA-modeled discharge has been compared favorably to United States Geological Survey stream gauge data (Donner et al., 2001). This work extends those studies through use of an improved version of IBIS. The IBIS model has been calibrated for use over the continental United States through an improved phenology routine and the inclusion of corn and soybeans as land cover types. Results from a comparison of a control run of natural vegetation with experimental runs of corn and soybean cover will be shown.

  11. Carbon Monoxide Photoproduction from Particles and Solutes in the Delaware Estuary under Contrasting Hydrological Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guisheng; Richardson, John D; Werner, James P; Xie, Huixiang; Kieber, David J

    2015-12-15

    Full-spectrum, ultraviolet (UV), and visible broadband apparent quantum yields (AQYs) for carbon monoxide (CO) photoproduction from chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) were determined in the Delaware Estuary in two hydrologically contrasting seasons in 2012: an unusually low flow in August and a storm-driven high flow in November. Average AQYs for CDOM and POM in November were 10 and 16 times the corresponding AQYs in August. Maximum AQYs in November occurred in a midestuary particle absorption maximum zone. Although POM AQYs were generally smaller than CDOM AQYs, the ratio of the former to the latter increased substantially from the UV to the visible. In both seasons, UV solar radiation was the primary driver for CO photoproduction from CDOM whereas visible light was the principal contributor to POM-based CO photoproduction. CDOM dominated CO photoproduction in the uppermost water layer while POM prevailed at deeper depths. On a depth-integrated basis, the Delaware Estuary shifted from a CDOM-dominated system in August to a POM-dominated system in November with respect to CO photoproduction. This study reveals that flood events may enhance photochemical cycling of terrigenous organic matter and switch the primary photochemical driver from CDOM to POM.

  12. Hydrological consequences of land-use change from forest to pasture in the Atlantic rain forest region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Antonio Martinelli

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The Atlantic rain forest is the most endangered ecosystem in Brazil. Its degradation has started since 1500 when the European settlers arrived. Despite of all land use changes that have occurred, hydrological studies carried out in this biome have been limited to hydrological functioning of rain forests only. In order to understand the hydrological consequences of land-use change from forest to pasture, we described the hydrological functioning of a pasture catchment that was previously covered by tropical rain forest. To reach this goal we measured the precipitation, soil matric potential, discharge, surface runoff and water table levels during one year. The results indicated that there is a decrease in surface soil saturated hydraulic conductivity. However, as low intensity rainfall prevails, the lower water conductivity does not necessarily leads to a substantially higher surface runoff generation. Regarding soil water matric potential, the pasture presented higher moisture levels than forest during the dry season. This increase in soil moisture implies in higher water table recharge that, in turn, explain the higher runoff ratio. This way, land-use change conversion from forest to pasture implies a higher annual streamflow in pasture catchments. Nonetheless, this increase in runoff due to forest conversion to pasture implies in losses of biological diversity as well as lower soil protection.

  13. Dynamics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter influenced by hydrological conditions in a large, shallow, and eutrophic lake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yongqiang; Zhang, Yunlin; Shi, Kun; Liu, Xiaohan; Niu, Cheng

    2015-09-01

    High concentrations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) are terrestrially derived from upstream tributaries to Lake Taihu, China, and are influenced by hydrological conditions of the upstream watershed. To investigate how the dynamics of CDOM in Lake Taihu are influenced by upstream inflow runoff, four sampling cruises, differing in hydrological conditions, were undertaken in the lake and its three major tributaries, rivers Yincun, Dapu, and Changdou. CDOM absorption, fluorescence spectroscopy, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and stable isotope δ(13)C and δ(15)N measurements were conducted to characterize the dynamics of CDOM. The mean absorption coefficient a(350) collected from the three river profiles (5.15 ± 1.92 m(-1)) was significantly higher than that of the lake (2.95 ± 1.88 m(-1)), indicating that the upstream rivers carried a substantial load of CDOM to the lake. This finding was substantiated by the exclusively terrestrial signal exhibited by the level of δ(13)C (-26.23 ± 0.49‰) of CDOM samples collected from the rivers. Mean a(350) and COD in Lake Taihu were significantly higher in the wet season than in the dry season (t test, p CDOM in the lake is strongly influenced by hydrological conditions of the watershed. Four components were identified by parallel factor analysis, including two protein-like components (C1 and C2), a terrestrial humic-like component (C3), and a microbial humic-like (C4) component. The contribution percentage of the two humic-like components relative to the summed fluorescence intensity of the four components (C humic) increased significantly from the dry to the wet season. This seasonal difference in contribution further substantiated that an enhanced rainfall followed by an elevated inflow runoff in the lake watershed in the wet season may result in an increase in humic-like substances being discharged into the lake compared to that in the dry season. This finding was further supported by an

  14. Changes in hydrological connectivity due to vegetation recovery and wall collapse in abandoned terraced fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana-Renault, Noemí; López-Vicente, Manuel; Oranjuren, Rafael; Ángel Llorente, José; Ruiz-Flaño, Purificación; Arnáez, José

    2017-04-01

    Agricultural terraces have been built in mountain regions worldwide in order to provide a larger surface for cultivation, improve water availability and reduce soil erosion, as they favour infiltration and reduce runoff and sediment connectivity from hillslopes to streams. In many Mediterranean countries, farmland abandonment has led to progressive natural revegetation and, in terraced slopes, due to a lack of maintenance, to a collapse of the water conservation structures, often followed by small mass movements and gullying. Little is known about the effect of such failures on the hydrological system, especially at catchment scale. The aim of this study is to contributing to fill in this gap by exploring the effect of vegetation recovery and terrace failure on hydrological connectivity in a small catchment (192 ha) in northern Spain mostly occupied by abandoned terraced fields. For this purpose, we applied a modified version of the Borselli's index of runoff and sediment connectivity (IC). Besides using the C-RUSLE factor, as used by many authors, we tested the inclusion of an infiltration component (Kf) to assess the landscape-weighting factor. The Kf factor accounted for the high infiltration rates observed in the terraced soils and was estimated using the permeability classes of the K-RUSLE factor. A 2x2 m resolution DEM was used to capture the terraced fields and run the IC model. Following the recommendation of Cavalli et al. (2015), we used the D-infinity flow accumulation algorithm (Tarboton, 1997) to represent the real flow paths, especially on hillslopes, where divergent flow predominates, and on stream channels. To ensure the continuity of the flow path lines, local sinks were filled in with the algorithm of Planchon & Darboux (2001) that preserved a minimum slope gradient of 0.01 degrees. Finally, linear landscape elements such as stonewalls, rock outcrops, and trails and forest roads were also considered. The IC was calculated for the current scenario

  15. Physiological condition of juvenile wading birds in relation to multiple landscape stressors in the Florida Everglades: effects of hydrology, prey availability, and mercury bioaccumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, Garth; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Gawlik, Dale E.; Beerens, James M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.

    2014-01-01

    The physiological condition of juvenile birds can be influenced by multiple ecological stressors, and few studies have concurrently considered the effects of environmental contaminants in combination with ecological attributes that can influence foraging conditions and prey availability. Using three temporally distinct indices of physiological condition, we compared the physiological response of nestling great egrets (Ardea alba) and white ibises (Eudocimus albus) to changing prey availability, hydrology (water depth, recession rate), and mercury exposure in the Florida Everglades. We found that the physiological response of chicks varied between species and among environmental variables. Chick body condition (short-term index) and fecal corticosterone levels (medium-term) were influenced by wetland water depth, prey availability, region, and age, but not by mercury contamination. However, mercury exposure did influence heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in egret chicks, indicating a longer-term physiological response to contamination. Our results indicate that the physiological condition of egret and ibis chicks were influenced by several environmental stressors, and the time frame of the effect may depend on the specialized foraging behavior of the adults provisioning the chicks.

  16. Physiological condition of juvenile wading birds in relation to multiple landscape stressors in the Florida Everglades: effects of hydrology, prey availability, and mercury bioaccumulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garth Herring

    Full Text Available The physiological condition of juvenile birds can be influenced by multiple ecological stressors, and few studies have concurrently considered the effects of environmental contaminants in combination with ecological attributes that can influence foraging conditions and prey availability. Using three temporally distinct indices of physiological condition, we compared the physiological response of nestling great egrets (Ardea alba and white ibises (Eudocimus albus to changing prey availability, hydrology (water depth, recession rate, and mercury exposure in the Florida Everglades. We found that the physiological response of chicks varied between species and among environmental variables. Chick body condition (short-term index and fecal corticosterone levels (medium-term were influenced by wetland water depth, prey availability, region, and age, but not by mercury contamination. However, mercury exposure did influence heat shock protein 70 (HSP70 in egret chicks, indicating a longer-term physiological response to contamination. Our results indicate that the physiological condition of egret and ibis chicks were influenced by several environmental stressors, and the time frame of the effect may depend on the specialized foraging behavior of the adults provisioning the chicks.

  17. Physiological condition of juvenile wading birds in relation to multiple landscape stressors in the Florida Everglades: effects of hydrology, prey availability, and mercury bioaccumulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, Garth; Eagles-Smith, Collin A; Gawlik, Dale E; Beerens, James M; Ackerman, Joshua T

    2014-01-01

    The physiological condition of juvenile birds can be influenced by multiple ecological stressors, and few studies have concurrently considered the effects of environmental contaminants in combination with ecological attributes that can influence foraging conditions and prey availability. Using three temporally distinct indices of physiological condition, we compared the physiological response of nestling great egrets (Ardea alba) and white ibises (Eudocimus albus) to changing prey availability, hydrology (water depth, recession rate), and mercury exposure in the Florida Everglades. We found that the physiological response of chicks varied between species and among environmental variables. Chick body condition (short-term index) and fecal corticosterone levels (medium-term) were influenced by wetland water depth, prey availability, region, and age, but not by mercury contamination. However, mercury exposure did influence heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) in egret chicks, indicating a longer-term physiological response to contamination. Our results indicate that the physiological condition of egret and ibis chicks were influenced by several environmental stressors, and the time frame of the effect may depend on the specialized foraging behavior of the adults provisioning the chicks.

  18. Modeling correlated information change: from conditional beliefs to quantum conditionals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baltag, A.; Smets, S.

    In this paper, we propose a unified logical framework for representing and analyzing various forms of correlated information change. Our main thesis is that “logical dynamics,” in the sense of van Benthem (Exploring logical dynamics. CSLI Publications, Stanford, 1996; Logical dynamics of information

  19. The response of vegetation to rising CO2 concentrations plays an important role in future changes in the hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Tao; Dong, Wenjie; Ji, Dong; Dai, Tanlong; Yang, Shili; Wei, Ting

    2018-04-01

    The effects of increasing CO2 concentrations on plant and carbon cycle have been extensively investigated; however, the effects of changes in plants on the hydrological cycle are still not fully understood. Increases in CO2 modify the stomatal conductance and water use of plants, which may have a considerable effect on the hydrological cycle. Using the carbon-climate feedback experiments from CMIP5, we estimated the responses of plants and hydrological cycle to rising CO2 concentrations to double of pre-industrial levels without climate change forcing. The mode results show that rising CO2 concentrations had a significant influence on the hydrological cycle by changing the evaporation and transpiration of plants and soils. The increases in the area covered by plant leaves result in the increases in vegetation evaporation. Besides, the physiological effects of stomatal closure were stronger than the opposite effects of changes in plant structure caused by the increases in LAI (leaf area index), which results in the decrease of transpiration. These two processes lead to overall decreases in evaporation, and then contribute to increases in soil moisture and total runoff. In the dry areas, the stronger increase in LAI caused the stronger increases in vegetation evaporation and then lead to the overall decreases in P - E (precipitation minus evaporation) and soil moisture. However, the soil moisture in sub-arid and wet areas would increase, and this may lead to the soil moisture deficit worse in the future in the dry areas. This study highlights the need to consider the different responses of plants and the hydrological cycle to rising CO2 in dry and wet areas in future water resources management, especially in water-limited areas.

  20. Changes In Growth Culture FDA Activity Under Changing Growth Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Per Elberg; Eriksen, Thomas Juul; Jensen, Bjørn K.

    1992-01-01

    The FDA hydrolysis capacities and bacterial biomass concentrations (estimated by determination of ATP content) of growth cultures prepared from activated sludge and wastewater, were measured to find out whether the FDA activity would reflect bacterial biomass under different physiological states...... of the bacteria. The FDA activity/ATP ratio was calculated for different concentrations of autoclaved sludge. A faster decay rate of ATP relative to FDA hydrolysis activity was observed, thus causing changes in the ratio. Furthermore, comparison between values obtained from pure cultures and different soils...... revealed differences up to two orders of magnitude of the ratio. Based on these results it was concluded that the FDA activity should not be applied for measurements of viable biomass in environments in which different physiological conditions occur....

  1. Should anticipated impacts of climate change on hydrology modify water management practices?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    St-Jean, R. [Energie Renouvelable Brookfield, Gatineau, Quebec (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    , electric system operators, governments, and investors want reliable projections to meet future load and energy demand and to properly plan for upgrades of existing assets; they therefore are starting to require hydrological and energy capability assessments to consider potential climate change impacts. To date, however, while climate models have provided indications of global and continental-scale changes in precipitation patterns, they have supplied very little quantitative, probabilistic, or seasonal information at the regional or watershed scales. The presentation will conclude by asking the following question for open discussion: is there sufficient information available to allow hydrologists to add a climate change factor to their assessments, on top of annual variability and cyclical meteorological events implicitly included in historical series? (author)

  2. Should anticipated impacts of climate change on hydrology modify water management practices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    St-Jean, R.

    2008-01-01

    , governments, and investors want reliable projections to meet future load and energy demand and to properly plan for upgrades of existing assets; they therefore are starting to require hydrological and energy capability assessments to consider potential climate change impacts. To date, however, while climate models have provided indications of global and continental-scale changes in precipitation patterns, they have supplied very little quantitative, probabilistic, or seasonal information at the regional or watershed scales. The presentation will conclude by asking the following question for open discussion: is there sufficient information available to allow hydrologists to add a climate change factor to their assessments, on top of annual variability and cyclical meteorological events implicitly included in historical series? (author)

  3. Evaluation of post fire changes in soil properties and influence on the hydrological and erosive dynamics in a Mediterranean watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz, Inés; Aguilar, Cristina; Millares, Agustín

    2013-04-01

    In the last fifty years, forest fires and changes in land use and management practices have had a significant influenceon the evolution of soil loss processes in the Mediterranean area. Forest fires have immediate effects in hydrological processes mainly due to sudden changes in soil properties and vegetation cover. After a fire there is an increase in runoff processes and peak flows and thus in the amount and composition of the sediments produced. Silting in dams downstream is often reported so the description of the post-fire hydrological processes is crucial in order to optimize decision making. This study analyzes a micro-watershed of 25 ha in the south of Spain that suffered a fire in October 2010 burning around a 2 km2 area. As the erosive processes in this area are directly related to concentrated overland flow, an indirect assessment of soil loss is presented in this work based on evaluating changes in runoff in Mediterranean post-fire situations. For this, the study is divided into two main parts. Firstly, changes in soil properties and vegetation cover are evaluated. Secondly, the effects of these changes in the hydrological and erosive dynamics are assessed.The watershed had been monitored in previous studies so soil properties and the vegetation cover before the fire took place were already characterized. Besides, the hydrological response was also available through an already calibrated and validated physically-based distributed hydrological model. For the evaluation of soil properties, field measurement campaigns were designed. Philip Dunne's tests for the determination of saturated hydraulic conductivity, as well as moisture content and bulk density measurements were carried out in both unaltered and burned soil samples. Changes in the vegetation cover fraction were assessed through desktop analysis of Landsat-TM5 platform satellite images as well as through visual inspection in the field campaigns. The analysis of the hydraulic conductivity revealed

  4. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  5. Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Di; Yang, Yuting; Yoshihide, Wada; Hong, Yang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yaning; Yong, Bin; Hou, Aizhong; Wei, Jiangfeng; Chen, Lu

    2015-01-01

    This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive.

  6. Hydrologic Alterations from Climate Change Inform Assessment of Ecological Risk to Pacific Salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cameron Wobus

    Full Text Available We developed an integrated hydrologic model of the upper Nushagak and Kvichak watersheds in the Bristol Bay region of southwestern Alaska, a region under substantial development pressure from large-scale copper mining. We incorporated climate change scenarios into this model to evaluate how hydrologic regimes and stream temperatures might change in a future climate, and to summarize indicators of hydrologic alteration that are relevant to salmon habitat ecology and life history. Model simulations project substantial changes in mean winter flow, peak flow dates, and water temperature by 2100. In particular, we find that annual hydrographs will no longer be dominated by a single spring thaw event, but will instead be characterized by numerous high flow events throughout the winter. Stream temperatures increase in all future scenarios, although these temperature increases are moderated relative to air temperatures by cool baseflow inputs during the summer months. Projected changes to flow and stream temperature could influence salmon through alterations in the suitability of spawning gravels, changes in the duration of incubation, increased growth during juvenile stages, and increased exposure to chronic and acute temperature stress. These climate-modulated changes represent a shifting baseline in salmon habitat quality and quantity in the future, and an important consideration to adequately assess the types and magnitude of risks associated with proposed large-scale mining in the region.

  7. Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, I.

    2006-01-01

    Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  8. Water towers of the Great Basin: climatic and hydrologic change at watershed scales in a mountainous arid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, S. B.

    2017-12-01

    Impacts of climate change in the Great Basin will manifest through changes in the hydrologic cycle. Downscaled climate data and projections run through the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) produce time series of hydrologic response - recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) - that directly affect water resources and vegetation. More than 50 climate projections from CMIP5 were screened using a cluster analysis of end-century (2077-2099) seasonal precipitation and annual temperature to produce a reduced subset of 12 climate futures that cover a wide range of macroclimate response. Importantly, variations among GCMs in summer precipitation produced by the SW monsoon are captured. Data were averaged within 84 HUC8 watersheds with widley varying climate, topography, and geology. Resultant time series allow for multivariate analysis of hydrologic response, especially partitioning between snowpack, recharge, runoff, and actual evapotranspiration. Because the bulk of snowpack accumulation is restricted to small areas of isolated mountain ranges, losses of snowpack can be extreme as snowline moves up the mountains with warming. Loss of snowpack also affects recharge and runoff rates, and importantly, the recharge/runoff ratio - as snowpacks fade, recharge tends to increase relative to runoff. Thresholds for regime shifts can be identified, but the unique topography and geology of each basin must be considered in assessing hydrologic response.

  9. Human-induced Terrestrial Water Storage Change: A Global Analysis using Hydrological Models and GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felfelani, F.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological models and data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage (TWS) change; however, both have disadvantages that necessitate the integrated use of them. While GRACE doesn't disintegrate the vertical storage into its components, most models do not account for human activities. Here we use two Land Surface Models (LSMs), i.e., HiGW-MAT and PCRGLOBWB that fully couple natural and human drivers of changes in water cycle, explicitly simulating the changes in various TWS compartments. We first evaluate the models performance with GRACE observations. Then, we quantify the human footprint over global river basins located in different geographic and climate regions. To quantify human impacts, a new framework is proposed based on the GRACE observations (representing both climate variability and human activities) together with the natural simulation of LSMs using water budget equation (P-ET-R; P for precipitation, ET for evapotranspiration, and R for runoff). Finally, we examine the uncertainty in TWS simulations arising from the uncertainties in forcing data. Results indicate that, in snow-dominated regions, PCRGLOBWB generally fails to reproduce neither the interannual variability of observed TWS nor the seasonal cycle, while HiGW-MAT model shows significantly better results. In basins with human signatures, PCRGLOBWB generally shows better agreement with GRACE compared to HiGW-MAT. It is found that HiGW-MAT tends to overestimate groundwater depletion in basins with human impacts (e.g., Amudarya, Colorado, Euphrates and Indus), which results in larger negative interannual TWS trend compared to GRACE. Euphrates and Ganges river basins experience the highest human-induced TWS deficit rates (2.08 cm/yr and 1.94 cm/yr, respectively) during the simulation period of 2002-2010. Uncertainty analysis of results from the same model but with different forcing data suggests a high standard

  10. On the changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dery, S. J.; Kang, D.; Shi, X.; Gao, H.

    2013-12-01

    This talk will present an application of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada over the latter half of the 20th century. The Fraser River is the longest waterway in BC and supports the world's most abundant Pacific Ocean salmon populations. Previous modeling and observational studies have demonstrated that the FRB is a snow-dominated system but with climate change it may evolve to a pluvial regime. Thus the goal of this study is to evaluate the changing contribution of snow to the hydrology of the watershed over the latter half of the 20th century. To this end, a 0.25° atmospheric forcing dataset is used to drive the VIC model from 1948 to 2006 at a daily time step over a domain covering the entire FRB. A model evaluation is first conducted over 11 major sub-watersheds of the FRB to quantitatively assess the spatial variations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. The ratio of the spatially averaged maximum SWE to runoff (RSR) is used to quantify the contribution of snow to the runoff in the 11 sub-watersheds of interest. From 1948 to 2006, RSR exhibits a significant decreasing trend in 9 of the 11 sub-watersheds (at a 0.05 of p-value according to the Mann-Kendall Test statistics). Changes in snow accumulation and melt lead to significant advances of the spring freshet throughout the basin. As the climate continues to warm, ecological processes and human usage of natural resources in the FRB may be substantially affected by its transition from a snow to a hybrid (nival/pluvial) and even a rain-dominated watershed.

  11. Human-induced landscape changes and geo-hydrological risk: the Rupinaro catchment, Liguria, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giostrella, Paola; Faccini, Francesco; Maggi, Roberto; Cesare Mondini, Alessandro; Tarolli, Paolo; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2015-04-01

    Small and steep watersheds are typical of Liguria, northern Italy. In these small watersheds, geo-hydrological hazards, including flash floods and shallow landslides, caused by high intensity rainfall are frequent and abundant. In the coastal valleys of Liguria, narrow flood plains have hosted human settlements and communication lines since the protohistoric period. Since then, a variety of human activities have modified the natural landscape significantly, and chiefly through land-use changes first in the flood-plains, and next along the slopes. We have studied the 11-square km Rupinaro catchment, west of Chiavari, which has been inhabited since the 8th century BC. Progressive human actions have modified the main river and its tributaries, which have become narrower and canalized, and locally they were covered completely. Human actions have also contributed to the increase in the runoff coefficients, and to the progradation of the main river into the Ligurian Sea. Demographic growth, socio-economic development and urbanization are the main drivers for the land use changes occurred in the Rupinaro catchment. Through a combined analysis of archaeological and palynologycal data, and the multi-temporal analysis of historical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imagery of different vintages, we have reconstructed phases of modifications of the river and the tributaries. We determined the land use changes calculating the loss of soil, analyzing statistics of buildings and demography for the last 150 years, and interpreting historical maps and aerial and satellite imagery. We found that land reclamations, the construction of embankments, and the rectification of rivers are the main human actions performed to obtain building areas along the main river course. Expansion of urban settlements in flood prone areas, and even in the main riverbed, have reached a critical limit has shown by the destructive flood event that has affected the Rupinaro catchment, and chiefly the

  12. Why understanding the impacts of the changing environment on river basin hydrology matters in Texas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H.; Zhao, G.; Lee, K.; Zhang, S.; Shen, X.; Shao, M.; Nickelson, C.

    2017-12-01

    The State of Texas is prone to floods and droughts—both of which are expected to become more frequent, and more intensified, under a changing climate. This has a direct negative effect on agricultural productivity, which is a major revenue source for the state. Meanwhile, with the rapid population growth and economic development, the burden to Texas water resources is exacerbated by the ever increasing demands from users. From a hydrological processes perspective, the direct consequence of the increased impervious area due to urbanization is greater surface runoff and higher flood peaks. Although many reservoirs have been built during the past several decades to regulate river flows and increase water supply, the role of these reservoirs in the context of different future climate change and urbanization scenarios needs to be explored. Furthermore, phytoplankton productivity—an important indicator of coastal ecosystem health— is significantly affected by river discharge. The objective of this presentation is to reveal the importance of understanding the impacts of climate change, urbanization, and flow regulation on Texas river flows, water resources, and coastal water quality. Using state-of-the-art modeling and remote sensing techniques, we will showcase our results over representative Texas river basins and bay areas. A few examples include modeling peak flows in the San Antonio River Basin, evaluating water supply resilience under future drought and urbanization over the Dallas metropolitan area, projecting future crop yields from Texas agricultural lands, and monitoring and forecasting Chlorophyll-a concentrations over Galveston Bay. Results from these studies are expected to provide information relevant to decision making, both with regard to water resources management and to ecosystem protection.

  13. Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

    2016-01-01

    The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

  14. Holocene Millennial Time Scale Hydrological Changes In Central-east Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, D.; Bonnefille, R.; Beaufort, L.

    The Holocene hydrological changes of a tropical swamp is reconstructed using a high resolution pollen record (ca 50 yrs) from the Kuruyange valley (Burundi, Africa, 3°35'S, 29°41'E), at 2000 m elevation. The sequence was dated by 10 radiocarbon dates, allowing reconstruction between ca 12 500 and 1000 cal yr B.P. In the Kuruyange swamp, peat accumulated rapidly at a sedimentation rate varying from 0.73 (prior to 6200 cal yr B.P.) to 1.51 mm/yr (during the late Holocene). A pollen index of water table, based on a ratio of aquatic versus non-aquatic plants has been used in order to test the hypothesis of hydrological constraints on the swampy ecosystem. Eight arid phases are evidenced by the index minima at 12 200, 11 200, 9900, 8600, 6500, 5000, 3400, 1600 cal yr B.P. The good agreement existing between this index and independent data such as (i) low-resolution East-African lake level reconstruct ions (Gillespie et al., 1983) and (ii) ?18O analyses from Arabian Sea (Sirocko et al., 1993) suggests the water table level responds to the monsoon dynamic. The Index varies periodically with a combination of 1/1515, 1/880 and 1/431 years-1 frequencies, revealed by time series analyses (Blackman-Tukey and Maximum Entropy). The extrapolation of the composite curve based on these 3 periodicities show that two major climatic events defined in the high latitudes between 1000 and 660 cal yr B.P. (Medieval Warm Period) and between 500 and 100 cal yr B.P. (Little Ice Age) are recorded in our data and show respectively high and low stands of the water table. Our results support some previous pollen-derived climate estimates in Ethiopia done by Bonnefille and Umer (1994). Moreover, the "1500 year" cycle registered in our data from the tropics, already evidenced in higher latitudes (Wijmstra et al., 1984; Bondet al., 1997; Schulz et al., 1999; Bond et al., 2001) support the hypothesis of strong teleconnections between tropical/subtropical and polar climates during the deglaciation

  15. Assessing hydrological changes in a regulated river system over the last 90 years in Rimac Basin (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega-Jácome, Fiorella; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven; Felipe-Obando, Oscar Gustavo

    2018-04-01

    Hydrological changes were assessed considering possible changes in precipitation and regulation or hydraulic diversion projects developed in the basin since 1960s in terms of improving water supply of the Rimac River, which is the main source of fresh water of Peru's capital. To achieve this objective, a trend analysis of precipitation and flow series was assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Subsequently, the Eco-flow and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methods were applied for the characterization and quantification of the hydrological change in the basin, considering for the analysis, a natural period (1920-1960) and an altered period (1961-2012). Under this focus, daily hydrologic information of the "Chosica R-2" station (from 1920 to 2013) and monthly rainfall information related to 14 stations (from 1964 to 2013) were collected. The results show variations in the flow seasonality of the altered period in relation to the natural period and a significant trend to increase (decrease) minimum flows (maximum flows) during the analyzed period. The Eco-flow assessment shows a predominance of Eco-deficit from December to May (rainy season), strongly related to negative anomalies of precipitation. In addition, a predominance of Eco-surplus was found from June to November (dry season) with a behavior opposite to precipitation, attributed to the regulations and diversion in the basin during that period. In terms of magnitude, the IHA assessment identified an increase of 51% in the average flows during the dry season and a reduction of 10% in the average flows during the rainy season (except December and May). Furthermore, the minimum flows increased by 35% with shorter duration and frequency, and maximum flows decreased by 29% with more frequency but less duration. Although there are benefits of regulation and diversion for developing anthropic activities, the fact that hydrologic alterations may result in significant modifications in the Rimac River ecosystem

  16. Climate Change and Hydrology of a Snow-fed Watershed in Western Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, V. P.; Bharati, L.; Dhaubanjar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Many river basins across the globe are experiencing varying degrees of impacts from climate change. Snow-fed watersheds are expected to be affected even more. Chamelia, a tributary of Mahakali river basin, is a snow-fed river in the western Nepal with catchment area of 1,603 km2above the confluence with Mahakali River. Forest cover (40%) and rainfed agriculture (28%) covers more than two-third of the watershed. Topography varies from 505 to 7,090 m. According to the data from Department of Electricity Development (DoED) this watershed contains 14 licensed hydropower projects of varying capacities. Climate change may affect various aspects of the hydropower project, all of which are hinged around hydrology. This study simulated hydrological response of Chamelia watershed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as an input for a hydro-economic model to analyze the water-energy-food nexus. The model was calibrated for the period of 2001-2007 and validated for 2008-2013 and then used to examine the streamflow response to climate change. Future climates for near-future (2020-2045), mid-future (2046-2070) and far-future (2071-2095) were considered based on CSIRO-CCAM Regional Circulation Model (RCM), derived from ACCESS1, downloaded from South Asia Cordex for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and then bias corrected using linear scaling method. Results, based on climate date at Station-103 showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 1.2°C (1.4°C), 1.5°C (2.8°C), and 2.3°C (2.6°C), respectively, from the baseline. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods, in the same order, are projected to increase by 1.1°C (1.5°C), 2.1°C (3.6°C), and 2.5°C (4.7°C), respectively, from the baseline. Precipitation in the other hand under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10.2% (10.4%), 7.6% (13.6%), and 3.1% (12

  17. Assessing the Climate Change Impact on Snow-Glacier Melting Dominated Basins in the Greater Himalaya Region Using a Distributed Glacio-Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Khalil, A.

    2014-12-01

    Glacier and snow melting is main source of water supply making a large contribution to streamflow of major river basins in the Greater Himalaya region including the Syr Darya, the Amu Darya, the Indus, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra basins. Due to the critical role of glacier and snow melting as water supply for both food production and hydropower generation in the region (especially during the low flow season), it is important to evaluate the vulnerability of snow and glacier melting streamflow to different climate conditions. In this study, a distributed glacio-hydrologic model with high resolution climate input is developed and calibrated that explicitly simulates all major hydrological processes and the glacier and snow dynamics for area further discretized by elevation bands. The distributed modeling structure and the glacier and snow modules provide a better understanding about how temperature and precipitation alterations are likely to affect current glacier ice reserves. Climate stress test is used to explore changes in the total streamflow change, snow/glacier melting contribution and glacier accumulation and ablation under a variety of different temperature and precipitation conditions. The latest future climate projections provided from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is used to inform the possibility of different climate conditions.

  18. Modeling SST gradient changes, the hydrological cycle response, and deep water formation in the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, N.; Ford, H. L.; Fedorov, A. V.; Jahn, A.; Jacobs, P.

    2017-12-01

    The absence of deep-water formation and a deep meridional overturning cell in the modern North Pacific has been attributed to the relatively fresh surface conditions in the subarctic. These conditions are, in turn, best explained by the local excess of precipitation over evaporation in the northern Pacific due to net moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific and/or moisture transport associated with the Asian monsoon. Some studies link the lack of deep-water formation in the Pacific directly to its occurrence in the Atlantic via the Atlantic-Pacific seesaw effect and idealized experiments indicate that the smaller width of the Atlantic predisposes it to higher salinity and deep-water formation. We have conducted a series of coupled model experiments across which global mean temperatures and large-scale meridional SST gradients are varied. We perturb either atmospheric CO2 concentrations or the meridional gradient in cloud radiative forcing and run each experiment out to 3000 years so that the deep ocean has equilibrated. As the strength of the meridional temperature gradient decreases across our experiments, a Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation develops. The strength of this Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation generally increases as the gradient weakens. In one of these experiments where the meridional SST gradient most closely resembles Pliocene reconstructions, a PMOC exists of comparable in strength to the modern AMOC. We will describe how the hydrological cycle response to reduced meridional SST gradients acts to increase the strength of the PMOC across our sensitivity experiments. Additionally, we will discuss our effort to include carbon isotopes in our Pliocene-like simulation for data-model comparisons. Calcium carbonate accumulation data from Subarctic North Pacific Site 882 and new and previously published carbon isotope records from the Pacific appear to support our modelling results suggesting that weaker meridonal SST gradients

  19. Hydrogeology and hydrologic conditions of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer System from Long Island, New York, to North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Monti, Jack; Nardi, Mark R.; Finkelstein, Jason S.; McCoy, Kurt J.

    2013-11-14

    The seaward-dipping sedimentary wedge that underlies the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain forms a complex groundwater system. This major source of water provides for public and domestic supply and serves as a vital source of freshwater for industrial and agricultural uses throughout the region. Population increases and land-use and climate changes, however, have led to competing demands for water. The regional response of the aquifer system to these stresses poses regional challenges for water-resources management at the State level because hydrologic effects often extend beyond State boundaries. In response to these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Resources Program began a regional assessment of the groundwater availability of the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system in 2010.

  20. Differential response of carbon cycling to long-term nutrient input and altered hydrological conditions in a continental Canadian peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Sina; Praetzel, Leandra S. E.; Goebel, Marie; Blodau, Christian; Knorr, Klaus-Holger

    2018-02-01

    Peatlands play an important role in global carbon cycling, but their responses to long-term anthropogenically changed hydrologic conditions and nutrient infiltration are not well known. While experimental manipulation studies, e.g., fertilization or water table manipulations, exist on the plot scale, only few studies have addressed such factors under in situ conditions. Therefore, an ecological gradient from the center to the periphery of a continental Canadian peatland bordering a eutrophic water reservoir, as reflected by increasing nutrient input, enhanced water level fluctuations, and increasing coverage of vascular plants, was used for a case study of carbon cycling along a sequence of four differently altered sites. We monitored carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) surface fluxes and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and CH4 concentrations in peat profiles from April 2014 through September 2015. Moreover, we studied bulk peat and pore-water quality and we applied δ13C-CH4 and δ13C-CO2 stable isotope abundance analyses to examine dominant CH4 production and emission pathways during the growing season of 2015. We observed differential responses of carbon cycling at the four sites, presumably driven by abundances of plant functional types and vicinity to the reservoir. A shrub-dominated site in close vicinity to the reservoir was a comparably weak sink for CO2 (in 1.5 years: -1093 ± 794, in 1 year: +135 ± 281 g CO2 m-2; a net release) as compared to two graminoid-moss-dominated sites and a moss-dominated site (in 1.5 years: -1552 to -2260 g CO2 m-2, in 1 year: -896 to -1282 g CO2 m-2). Also, the shrub-dominated site featured notably low DIC pore-water concentrations and comparably 13C-enriched CH4 (δ13C- CH4: -57.81 ± 7.03 ‰) and depleted CO2 (δ13C-CO2: -15.85 ± 3.61 ‰) in a more decomposed peat, suggesting a higher share of CH4 oxidation and differences in predominant methanogenic pathways. In comparison to all other sites, the graminoid

  1. Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons

  2. An Alternative Approach to Overcome the Limitation of HRUs in Analyzing Hydrological Processes Based on Land Use/Cover Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanhao Meng

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Since the concept of hydrological response units (HRUs is used widely in hydrological modeling, the land use change scenarios analysis based on HRU may have direct influence on hydrological processes due to its simplified flow routing and HRU spatial distribution. This paper intends to overcome this issue based on a new analysis approach to explain what impacts for the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes (LUCCIHP, and compare whether differences exist between the conventional approach and the improved approach. Therefore, we proposed a sub-basin segmentation approach to obtain more reasonable impact assessment of LUCC scenario by re-discretizing the HRUs and prolonging the flow path in which the LUCC occurs. As a scenario study, the SWAT model is used in the Aksu River Basin, China, to simulate the response of hydrological processes to LUCC over ten years. Moreover, the impacts of LUCC on hydrological processes before and after model modification are compared and analyzed at three levels (catchment scale, sub-basin scale and HRU scale. Comparative analysis of Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE, RSR and Pbias, model simulations before and after model improvement shows that NSE increased by up to 2%, RSR decreased from 0.73 to 0.72, and Pbias decreased from 0.13 to 0.05. The major LUCCs affecting hydrological elements in this basin are related to the degradation of grassland and snow/ice and expansion of farmland and bare land. Model simulations before and after model improvement show that the average variation of flow components in typical sub-basins (surface runoff, lateral flow and groundwater flow are changed by +11.09%, −4.51%, and −6.58%, and +10.53%, −1.55%, and −8.98% from the base period model scenario, respectively. Moreover, the spatial response of surface runoff at the HRU level reveals clear spatial differences between before and after model improvement. This alternative approach illustrates the potential

  3. GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markert, Kel N.; Griffin, Robert; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; McNider, Richard T.; Anderson, Eric R.

    2016-01-01

    The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

  4. Southern ocean warming, sea level and hydrological change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sluijs

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A brief (~150 kyr period of widespread global average surface warming marks the transition between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, ~56 million years ago. This so-called "Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum" (PETM is associated with the massive injection of 13C-depleted carbon, reflected in a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE. Biotic responses include a global abundance peak (acme of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium. Here we identify the PETM in a marine sedimentary sequence deposited on the East Tasman Plateau at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP Site 1172 and show, based on the organic paleothermometer TEX86, that southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures increased from ~26 °C to ~33°C during the PETM. Such temperatures before, during and after the PETM are >10 °C warmer than predicted by paleoclimate model simulations for this latitude. In part, this discrepancy may be explained by potential seasonal biases in the TEX86 proxy in polar oceans. Additionally, the data suggest that not only Arctic, but also Antarctic temperatures may be underestimated in simulations of ancient greenhouse climates by current generation fully coupled climate models. An early influx of abundant Apectodinium confirms that environmental change preceded the CIE on a global scale. Organic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest a local decrease in the amount of river run off reaching the core site during the PETM, possibly in concert with eustatic rise. Moreover, the assemblages suggest changes in seasonality of the regional hydrological system and storm activity. Finally, significant variation in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages during the PETM indicates that southwest Pacific climates varied significantly over time scales of 103 – 104 years during this event, a finding comparable to similar studies of PETM successions from the New Jersey Shelf.

  5. Stream network geomorphology mediates predicted vulnerability of anadromous fish habitat to hydrologic change in southeast Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloat, Matthew R; Reeves, Gordon H; Christiansen, Kelly R

    2017-02-01

    networks will hamper efforts to understand and mitigate the vulnerability of anadromous fish habitat to climate-induced hydrologic change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Leaf area index estimation in a pine plantation with LAI-2000 under direct sunlight conditions: relationship with inventory and hydrologic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina, A.; Campo, A. D. del

    2011-01-01

    LAI is a key factor in light and rainfall interception processes in forest stands and, for this reason, is called to play an important role in global change adaptive silviculture. Therefore, it is necessary to develop practical and operative methodologies to measure this parameter as well as simple relationships with other silviculture variables. This work has studied 1) the feasibility of LAI-2000 sensor in estimating LAI-stand when readings are taken under direct sunlight conditions; and 2) the ability of LAI in studying rainfall partitioned into throughfall (T) in an Aleppo pine stand after different thinning intensities, as well as its relationships to basal area, (G), cover (FCC), and tree density (D). Results showed that the angular correction scheme applied to LAI-2000 direct-sunlight readings stabilized them for different solar angles, allowing a better operational use of LAI-2000 in Mediterranean areas, where uniform overcast conditions are difficult to meet and predict. Forest cover showed the highest predictive ability of LAI (R 2 = 0.98; S = 0.28), then G (R 2 = 0.96; S = 0.43) and D (R 2 = 0.50; S = 0.28). In the hydrological plane, T increased with thinning intensity, being G the most explanatory variable (R 2 = 0.81; S = 3.07) and LAI the one that showed the poorest relation with it (R 2 = 0.69; S = 3.95). These results open a way for forest hydrologic modeling taking LAI as an input variable either estimated form LAI-2000 or deducted from inventory data. (Author) 36 refs.

  7. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  8. Gene expression reaction norms unravel the molecular and cellular processes underpinning the plastic phenotypes of Alternanthera philoxeroides in contrasting hydrological conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lexuan eGao

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Alternanthera philoxeroides is an amphibious invasive weed that can colonize both aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Individuals growing in different habitats exhibit extensive phenotypic variation but little genetic differentiation. Little is known about the molecular basis underlying environment-induced phenotypic changes. Variation in transcript abundance in A. philoxeroides was characterized throughout the time-courses of pond and upland treatments using RNA-Sequencing. 7,805 genes demonstrated variable expression in response to different treatments,forming 11 transcriptionally coordinated gene groups. Functional enrichment analysis of plastically expressed genes revealed pathway changes in hormone-mediated signaling, osmotic adjustment, cell wall remodeling and programmed cell death, providing a mechanistic understanding of the biological processes underlying the phenotypic changes in A. philoxeroides. Both transcriptional modulation of environmentally sensitive loci and environmentally dependent control of regulatory loci influenced the plastic responses to the environment. Phenotypic responses and gene expression patterns to contrasting hydrological conditions were compared between A. philoxeroides and its alien congener A. pungens. The terricolous A. pungens displayed limited phenotypic plasticity to different treatments. It was postulated based on gene expression comparison that the interspecific variation in plasticity between A. philoxeroides and A. pungens was not due to environmentally-mediated changes in hormone levels but to variations in the type and relative abundance of different signal transducers and receptors expressed in the target tissue.

  9. Analysis of spatio-temporal land cover changes for hydrological impact assessment within the Nyando River Basin of Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olang, Luke Omondi; Kundu, Peter; Bauer, Thomas; Fürst, Josef

    2011-08-01

    The spatio-temporal changes in the land cover states of the Nyando Basin were investigated for auxiliary hydrological impact assessment. The predominant land cover types whose conversions could influence the hydrological response of the region were selected. Six Landsat images for 1973, 1986, and 2000 were processed to discern the changes based on a methodology that employs a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised classification schemes. The accuracy of the classifications were assessed using reference datasets processed in a GIS with the help of ground-based information obtained through participatory mapping techniques. To assess the possible hydrological effect of the detected changes during storm events, a physically based lumped approach for infiltration loss estimation was employed within five selected sub-basins. The results obtained indicated that forests in the basin declined by 20% while agricultural fields expanded by 16% during the entire period of study. Apparent from the land cover conversion matrices was that the majority of the forest decline was a consequence of agricultural expansion. The model results revealed decreased infiltration amounts by between 6% and 15%. The headwater regions with the vast deforestation were noted to be more vulnerable to the land cover change effects. Despite the haphazard land use patterns and uncertainties related to poor data quality for environmental monitoring and assessment, the study exposed the vast degradation and hence the need for sustainable land use planning for enhanced catchment management purposes.

  10. Evaluating Hydrological Response of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban gro...

  11. Dental Usage Under Changing Economic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manski, Richard J.; Moeller, John F.; Chen, Haiyan; Schimmel, Jody; St Clair, Patricia A.; Pepper, John V.

    2012-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between changes in household finances (wealth and income) and changes in dental utilization at the onset of the recent recession in a population of older Americans. Methods Data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) were analyzed for U.S. individuals aged 51 years and older during the 2006 and 2008 waves of the HRS. We estimated logistic models of (1) starting and (2) stopping dental use between 2006 and 2008 survey periods as a function of changes in household wealth and income, controlling for other potentially confounding covariates. Results We found that only when household wealth falls by 50 percent or more were older adults less likely to seek dental care. Changes in household income and other changes in household wealth were not associated with changes in dental utilization among this population. Conclusions Older Americans’ dental care utilization appeared to be fairly resilient to changes in household finances; only when wealth fell by 50 percent or more did individuals decrease dental use. This finding might extend to other health care services that are preventive, routine, and relatively inexpensive. PMID:22994647

  12. Structural and functional responses of plant communities to climate change-mediated alterations in the hydrology of riparian areas in temperate Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baattrup-Pedersen, Annette; Garssen, Annemarie; Göthe, Emma; Hoffmann, Carl Christian; Oddershede, Andrea; Riis, Tenna; van Bodegom, Peter M; Larsen, Søren E; Soons, Merel

    2018-04-01

    The hydrology of riparian areas changes rapidly these years because of climate change-mediated alterations in precipitation patterns. In this study, we used a large-scale in situ experimental approach to explore effects of drought and flooding on plant taxonomic diversity and functional trait composition in riparian areas in temperate Europe. We found significant effects of flooding and drought in all study areas, the effects being most pronounced under flooded conditions. In near-stream areas, taxonomic diversity initially declined in response to both drought and flooding (although not significantly so in all years) and remained stable under drought conditions, whereas the decline continued under flooded conditions. For most traits, we found clear indications that the functional diversity also declined under flooded conditions, particularly in near-stream areas, indicating that fewer strategies succeeded under flooded conditions. Consistent changes in community mean trait values were also identified, but fewer than expected. This can have several, not mutually exclusive, explanations. First, different adaptive strategies may coexist in a community. Second, intraspecific variability was not considered for any of the traits. For example, many species can elongate shoots and petioles that enable them to survive shallow, prolonged flooding but such abilities will not be captured when applying mean trait values. Third, we only followed the communities for 3 years. Flooding excludes species intolerant of the altered hydrology, whereas the establishment of new species relies on time-dependent processes, for instance the dispersal and establishment of species within the areas. We expect that altered precipitation patterns will have profound consequences for riparian vegetation in temperate Europe. Riparian areas will experience loss of taxonomic and functional diversity and, over time, possibly also alterations in community trait responses that may have cascading effects

  13. Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guimberteau, Matthieu; Ciais, Philippe; Pablo Boisier, Juan; Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ana; Biemans, Hester; Deurwaerder, De Hannes; Galbraith, David; Kruijt, Bart; Langerwisch, Fanny; Poveda, German; Rammig, Anja; Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Tejada, Graciela; Thonicke, Kirsten; Randow, Von Celso; Randow, Rita; Zhang, Ke; Verbeeck, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change

  14. Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wei-Xing; Huang, Ting-Lin; Li, Xuan; Zhang, Hai-Han; Ju, Tuo

    2015-12-01

    Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

  15. Combining satellite radar altimetry, SAR surface soil moisture and GRACE total storage changes for hydrological model calibration in a large poorly gauged catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Milzow

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The availability of data is a major challenge for hydrological modelling in large parts of the world. Remote sensing data can be exploited to improve models of ungauged or poorly gauged catchments. In this study we combine three datasets for calibration of a rainfall-runoff model of the poorly gauged Okavango catchment in Southern Africa: (i surface soil moisture (SSM estimates derived from radar measurements onboard the Envisat satellite; (ii radar altimetry measurements by Envisat providing river stages in the tributaries of the Okavango catchment, down to a minimum river width of about one hundred meters; and (iii temporal changes of the Earth's gravity field recorded by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE caused by total water storage changes in the catchment. The SSM data are shown to be helpful in identifying periods with over-respectively underestimation of the precipitation input. The accuracy of the radar altimetry data is validated on gauged subbasins of the catchment and altimetry data of an ungauged subbasin is used for model calibration. The radar altimetry data are important to condition model parameters related to channel morphology such as Manning's roughness. GRACE data are used to validate the model and to condition model parameters related to various storage compartments in the hydrological model (e.g. soil, groundwater, bank storage etc.. As precipitation input the FEWS-Net RFE, TRMM 3B42 and ECMWF ERA-Interim datasets are considered and compared.

  16. Explanation of climate and human impacts on sediment discharge change in Darwinian hydrology: Derivation of a differential equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianjun; Gao, Guangyao; Fu, Bojie; Zhang, Lu

    2018-04-01

    The assessment for impacts of climate variability and human activities on suspended sediment yield (SSY) change has long been a question of great interest. However, the sediment generation processes are sophisticated with high nonlinearity and great uncertainty, which give rise to extreme complexity for SSY change assessment in Newtonian approach. Consequently, few approaches can be simply but widely applied to decompose impacts of climatic variability and human activities on SSY change. Thus, it is an urgent need to develop advanced methods that are simple and robust. Since that the Newtonian approach is hardly achievable due to limitation of either observations or knowledge of mechanisms, there have been repeated calls to capture the hydrologic system in Darwinian approach for hydrological change prediction or explanation. As streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, SSY change are thus documented in changes of sediment concentrated flow and suspended sediment concentration - water discharge (C-Q) relationships. By deduced corollaries, a differential equation of sediment discharge change was derived to explicitly decompose impacts of climate variability and human activities in Darwinian hydrology. Besides, a new form of sediment rating curves was proposed and curved as C-Q relationships and probability distribution of sediment concentrated flow. River sediment flux can be revealed by this representation, which simply elucidates mechanism of SSY generation covering a range of time scales from finer than rainfall-event to long term. By the new sediment rating curves, the differential equation was partly solved using a segmentation algorithm proposed and validated in this paper, and then was submitted to water balance framework expressed by Budyko-type equation. Thus, for catchment management, hydrologists can obtain explicit explanation of how climate variation and human activities propagate through landscape and result in sediment discharge change. The

  17. Changes in hydrology and salinity accompanying a century of agricultural conversion in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayawickreme, Dushmantha H; Santoni, Celina S; Kim, John H; Jobbágy, Esteban G; Jackson, Robert B

    2011-10-01

    Conversions of natural woodlands to agriculture can alter the hydrologic balance, aquifer recharge, and salinity of soils and groundwater in ways that influence productivity and sustainable land use. Using a land-use change chronosequence in semiarid woodlands of Argentina's Espinal province, we examined the distribution of moisture and solutes and estimated recharge rates on adjacent plots of native woodlands and rain-fed agriculture converted 6-90 years previously. Soil coring and geoelectrical profiling confirmed the presence of spatially extensive salt accumulations in dry woodlands and pervasive salt losses in areas converted to agriculture. A 1.1-km-long electrical resistivity transect traversing woodland, 70-year-old agriculture, and woodland, for instance, revealed a low-resistivity (high-salinity) horizon between approximately 3 m and 13 m depth in the woodlands that was virtually absent in the agricultural site because of leaching. Nine-meter-deep soil profiles indicated a 53% increase in soil water storage after 30 or more years of cultivation. Conservative groundwater-recharge estimates based on chloride tracer methods in agricultural plots ranged from approximately 12 to 45 mm/yr, a substantial increase from the led to >95% loss of sulfate and chloride ions from the shallow vadose zone in most agriculture plots. These losses correspond to over 100 Mg of sulfate and chloride salts potentially released to the region's groundwater aquifers through time with each hectare of deforestation, including a capacity to increase groundwater salinity to >4000 mg/L from these ions alone. Similarities between our findings and those of the dryland salinity problems of deforested woodlands in Australia suggest an important warning about the potential ecohydrological risks brought by the current wave of deforestation in the Espinal and other regions of South America and the world.

  18. Assessing Climate Change Impact on Gilgel Abbay and Gumara Watershed Hydrology, the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailu Sheferaw Ayele

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability have significant influences on hydrological cycles and the availability of water in the Horn of Africa. Projections of six General Circulation Models (GCMs in association with high (A2 and low (B1 emission scenarios were adopted in this study from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES for the period 2020 - 2039 to assess the impacts of climate changes on the Gilgel Abbay and Gumara watershed hydrology, the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were screened in accordance with baseline climate statistics of study areas. A weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation to drive the General Water Loading Function (GWLF hydrological model for simulating runoffs. Projected changes in temperature differences and precipitation ratios relative to the baseline were analyzed to explain the variations in evapotranspiration and the influences on runoff. Despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among GCMs, increasing runoff in both wet and dry seasons was observed for both watersheds, attributable mainly to the increase in precipitation projected by most GCMs. In contrast to the great increases in runoff, variations in evapotranspiration are less significant. The projected runoff in both watersheds implies increased potential for promoting agricultural irrigation in the dry season. Furthermore, it would allow greater inflow to Lake Tana, the largest contributor to the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Therefore, concerned local, state, and federal government organizations shall be prepared to harness opportunities from the projected increase in runoff.

  19. Stable water isotope patterns in a climate change hotspot: the isotope hydrology framework of Corsica (western Mediterranean).

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geldern, Robert; Kuhlemann, Joachim; Schiebel, Ralf; Taubald, Heinrich; Barth, Johannes A C

    2014-06-01

    The Mediterranean is regarded as a region of intense climate change. To better understand future climate change, this area has been the target of several palaeoclimate studies which also studied stable isotope proxies that are directly linked to the stable isotope composition of water, such as tree rings, tooth enamel or speleothems. For such work, it is also essential to establish an isotope hydrology framework of the region of interest. Surface waters from streams and lakes as well as groundwater from springs on the island of Corsica were sampled between 2003 and 2009 for their oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions. Isotope values from lake waters were enriched in heavier isotopes and define a local evaporation line (LEL). On the other hand, stream and spring waters reflect the isotope composition of local precipitation in the catchment. The intersection of the LEL and the linear fit of the spring and stream waters reflect the mean isotope composition of the annual precipitation (δP) with values of-8.6(± 0.2) ‰ for δ(18)O and-58(± 2) ‰ for δ(2)H. This value is also a good indicator of the average isotope composition of the local groundwater in the island. Surface water samples reflect the altitude isotope effect with a value of-0.17(± 0.02) ‰ per 100 m elevation for oxygen isotopes. At Vizzavona Pass in central Corsica, water samples from two catchments within a lateral distance of only a few hundred metres showed unexpected but systematic differences in their stable isotope composition. At this specific location, the direction of exposure seems to be an important factor. The differences were likely caused by isotopic enrichment during recharge in warm weather conditions in south-exposed valley flanks compared to the opposite, north-exposed valley flanks.

  20. Impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and water resources management of the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laxmi Prasad Devkota

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The study found that climate change does not pose major threat on average water availability. However, temporal flow variations are expected to increase in the future. The magnitude of projected flow for given return periods, however, strongly depends on the climate model run considered. The ECHAM05 results show higher flow changes than those estimated from the HADCM3 outputs. A relation was derived to estimate projected flood flow as a function of return period and flow estimated from historical series. Amidst the uncertainties, these predictions provide reasonable insight for re-consideration of design standards or design values of hydraulic structures under climate change.

  1. Long-term changes in flood event patterns due to changes in hydrological distribution parameters in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

    2011-07-01

    This article describes the principal control parameters of flood events and precipitation and the relationships between corresponding hydrologic and climatologic parameters. The long-term generation of runoff and associated processes is important in understanding floods and droughts under changes in climate and land use. This study presents detailed analyses of flood events in a coastal amphitheatre catchment with a total area of 445 km 2 in western Japan, followed by analyses of flood events in both urban and forest areas. Using long-term (1962 to 2002) hydrological and climatological data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, the contributions of precipitation, river discharge, temperature, and relative humidity to flood events were analysed. Flood events could be divided into three types with respect to hydrologic and climatologic principal control parameters: the long-term tendency; medium-term changes as revealed by hydrographs and hyetographs of high-intensity events such as the relative precipitation, river discharge, and temperature; and large events, as shown by the flow-duration curve, with each cluster having particular characteristics. River discharge showed a decreasing tendency of flow quantity during small rainfall events of less than 100 mm/event from the 1980s to the present. An approximately 7% decrease from 44.8 to 37.3% occurred in the percentage of river water supplied by precipitation in the years after the 1980s. For the medium-term changes, no marked change occurred in the flow quantity of the peak point over time in event hydrographs. However, flow quantities before and after the peak tended to decrease by 1 to 2 m 3/s after the 1980s. Theoretical considerations with regard to the influence of hydrologic and climatologic parameters on flood discharge are discussed and examined in terms of observational data. These findings provide a sound foundation for use in hydrological catchment modelling.

  2. HSE under ever-changing conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiborg, R.

    1996-01-01

    The paper relates to the health, safety and environment (HSE) area on the Ekofisk field on the Norwegian continental shelf. Experience from the first twenty years operation indicated that rapid forced change to introduce new technology and work methods had a tendency to increase the number of negative events in HSE. In 1991/92 significant changes had to be initiated in order to continue safe operations, reduce downtime, deliver the service expected by third parties and secure economically viable operations into the next century. The last 4-5 years prove that a motivated work force, with solid well planned programs and the right tools, can achieve both improved HSE performance and reduce shut-downs in the middle of accelerated change programs. 14 figs

  3. Changing living conditions, life style and health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Curtis, Tine; Kvernmo, Siv; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2005-01-01

    Human health is the result of the interaction of genetic, nutritional, socio-cultural, economic, physical infrastructure and ecosystem factors. All of the individual, social, cultural and socioeconomic factors are influenced by the environment they are embedded in and by changes in this environme...

  4. Quantitative reconstruction of cross-sectional dimensions and hydrological parameters of gravelly fluvial channels developed in a forearc basin setting under a temperate climatic condition, central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibata, Kenichiro; Adhiperdana, Billy G.; Ito, Makoto

    2018-01-01

    Reconstructions of the dimensions and hydrological features of ancient fluvial channels, such as bankfull depth, bankfull width, and water discharges, have used empirical equations developed from compiled data-sets, mainly from modern meandering rivers, in various tectonic and climatic settings. However, the application of the proposed empirical equations to an ancient fluvial succession should be carefully examined with respect to the tectonic and climatic settings of the objective deposits. In this study, we developed empirical relationships among the mean bankfull channel depth, bankfull channel depth, drainage area, bankfull channel width, mean discharge, and bankfull discharge using data from 24 observation sites of modern gravelly rivers in the Kanto region, central Japan. Some of the equations among these parameters are different from those proposed by previous studies. The discrepancies are considered to reflect tectonic and climatic settings of the present river systems, which are characterized by relatively steeper valley slope, active supply of volcaniclastic sediments, and seasonal precipitation in the Kanto region. The empirical relationships derived from the present study can be applied to modern and ancient gravelly fluvial channels with multiple and alternate bars, developed in convergent margin settings under a temperate climatic condition. The developed empirical equations were applied to a transgressive gravelly fluvial succession of the Paleogene Iwaki Formation, Northeast Japan as a case study. Stratigraphic thicknesses of bar deposits were used for estimation of the bankfull channel depth. In addition, some other geomorphological and hydrological parameters were calculated using the empirical equations developed by the present study. The results indicate that the Iwaki Formation fluvial deposits were formed by a fluvial system that was represented by the dimensions and discharges of channels similar to those of the middle to lower reaches of

  5. Georgian climate change under global warming conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Elizbarashvili

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Georgian Climate change has been considered comprehensively, taking into account World Meteorological Organization recommendations and recent observation data. On the basis of mean temperature and precipitation decadal trend geo-information maps for 1936–2012 years period, Georgian territory zoning has been carried out and for each areas climate indices main trends have been studied, that best characterize climate change - cold and hot days, tropical nights, vegetation period duration, diurnal maximum precipitation, maximum five-day total precipitation, precipitation intensity simple index, precipitation days number of at least 10 mm, 20 mm and 50 mm, rainy and rainless periods duration. Trends of temperature indices are statistically significant. On the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland at high confidence level cold and hot days and tropical nights number changes are statistically significant. On eastern Georgia plains at high level of statistical significance, the change of all considered temperature indices has been fixed except for the number of hot days. In mountainous areas only hot day number increasing is significant. Trends of most moisture indices are statistically insignificant. While keeping Georgian climate change current trends, precipitation amount on the Black Sea coastline and Colchis lowland, as well as in some parts of Western Caucasus to the end of the century will increase by 50% and amounts to 3000 and 6000 mm, respectively this will strengthen humidity of those areas. Besides increasing of rainy period duration may constitute the risk for flooding and high waters. On eastern Georgia plains, in particular Kvemo Kartli, annual precipitation amount will decrease by 50% or more, and will be only 150–200 mm and the precipitation daily maximum will decrease by about 20 mm and be only 10–15 mm, which of course will increase the intensity of desertification of steppe and semi-desert landscapes.

  6. Hydrological behaviour of sealing under different soil management conditions in the Center South Cordoba, Argentina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bricchi, E.

    2004-01-01

    The susceptibility of soils to form seals induced by rain depends on a combination of physical, chemical and biological processes, which are, indeed, affected by climatic characteristics and the type of soil. If we consider the weather factors, the energy of rain, as a function of quantity and intensity, is the most important one. The soil properties that favor the formation of sealing are texture, organic matter content, structural stability and sodium adsorption relationship. Regarding texture, silt is the particle, which is most highly involved. In central Argentina, specifically in the central southern region of Cordoba Province, the most representative soils show a low content of clays and a high content of silt and fine sand. This land has undergone different production systems, not only agricultural ones but also combined systems, as summer crops, with intense labouring and scarce, even lacking, stubble supply. Therefore these soils have had important loss in organic matter, degradation of the structure of the superficial horizons. It became necessary, then, to look for a combination of technologies leading to an energy input throughout conservation tillage systems, soil covering and agrochemicals which tend to improve soil quality in order to obtain a sustainable production. The trial was conducted by using a simple at-random design with two repetitions for each treatment. Only in F the initial saturated hydraulic conductivity (K si ) (non-sealing condition) and the final hydraulic conductivity (K sf ) (sealing conditions) were determined in the superficial of soil in 2000, by means of a rain simulator using an intensity up to 50 mm/h for 60 minutes (kinetic energy of 0.1336 J.cm -2 ). The K s values obtained by applying Darcy's equation were used to fit the Horton type exponential decay function which describes Ks as a function of the time of exposure to a simulated rain. It can be concluded that the removal of natural vegetation and crop systems have

  7. Hydrologic connectivity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica: System function and changes over two decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wlostowski, A. N.; Gooseff, M. N.; Bernzott, E. D.; McKnight, D. M.; Jaros, C.; Lyons, W.

    2013-12-01

    The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is one of the coldest (average annual air temperature of -18°C) and driest (ecological connections in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Intermittent glacial meltwater streams connect glaciers to closed basin lakes and compose the most prominent hydrologic nexus in the valleys. This study uses of 20+ years of stream temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), and discharge data to en