WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing global essential

  1. Prioritizing Global Observations Along Essential Climate Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojinski, Stephan; Richter, Carolin

    2010-12-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Secretariat, housed within the World Meteorological Organization, released in August 2010 updated guidance for priority actions worldwide in support of observations of GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). This guidance states that full achievement of the recommendations in the 2010 Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/Publications/gcos­138.pdf) is required to ensure that countries are able to understand and predict climate change and its impacts and manage their response throughout the 21st century and beyond. GCOS is sponsored by the United Nations and the International Council for Science (ICSU) and is an internationally coordinated network of observing systems and a program of activities that support and improve the network, which is designed to meet evolving national and international requirements for climate observations. One of the main objectives of GCOS is to sustain observations into the future to allow evaluation of how climate is changing, so that informed decisions can be made on prevention, mitigation, and adaptation strategies. GCOS priorities are based on the belief that observations are crucial to supporting the research needed to refine understanding of the climate system and its changes, to initialize predictions on time scales out to decades, and to develop the models used to make these predictions and longer­term scenario-based projections. Observations are also needed to assess social and economic vulnerabilities and to support related actions needed across a broad range of societal sectors by underpinning emerging climate services.

  2. Foreign Direct Investments Expansion – Essential Globalization Factor

    OpenAIRE

    Cătălin Emilian HUIDUMAC PETRESCU; JOIA Radu-Marcel; Gheorghe HURDUZEU; Liviu Bogdan VLAD

    2011-01-01

    We live in a time when the world economy is constantly changing. Foreign direct investments is one of the most dynamic part of the world economy and in a continuous globalization, those international financial flows determining the traders to know their defining elements and to adopt a specific management in the international affairs field.    We are viewers of an unprecedented expansion of foreign direct investments, essential factor of the globalization developm...

  3. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  4. Technology and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  5. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  6. Amazonia and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Michael; Bustamante, Mercedes; Gash, John; Silva Dias, Pedro

    Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as • Wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis • Increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle • Drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments • The net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere • Floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere • The impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. The book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists.

  7. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  8. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  9. CHANGE MANAGEMENT ESSENTIALS TO MANAGE BUSINESS FLEXIBILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Cãtãlin Cristian BABALÂC; Mihaela UDÃ

    2014-01-01

    The present paper has as objective to introduce essential concepts that stand as basis for change and risk management, having a direct influence on flexibility. The competitive advantage represented by the company flexibility either if it is achieved by technology or with the help of human factor follows a path characterized by risk and possible resistance to what is the normal state.

  10. Global atmospheric changes.

    OpenAIRE

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

  11. Foreign Direct Investments Expansion – Essential Globalization Factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin Emilian HUIDUMAC PETRESCU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We live in a time when the world economy is constantly changing. Foreign direct investments is one of the most dynamic part of the world economy and in a continuous globalization, those international financial flows determining the traders to know their defining elements and to adopt a specific management in the international affairs field. We are viewers of an unprecedented expansion of foreign direct investments, essential factor of the globalization development process. The paper analyzes the evolution of FDI so far, along with a brief illustration as the main trends of international financial flows for 2010 and 2011. In the context of economic globalization, it is absolutely necessary to clear out a study on the various economic activities, especially on the differences between countries. The analysis of these differences is particularly important as it helps improve and optimize the strategies adopted by foreign transnational companies. In the past 15 years, one observes that most companies in emerging countries, characterized by a great expansion, have adopted in the first phase of their existence, corporate strategies that gave them the opportunity to become global companies. According to surveys, after reaching the first goal, becoming a multinational or a transnational company, they have developed new business models beyond the classical principles and strategies. It is anticipated that in the coming decades, the strategies of emerging companies will be influenced by functional specialization, which, according to experts, influence the process of globalization. The analysis of strategies adopted by companies in emerging countries is absolutely necessary because the results cannot be overlooked. For example, until 2004, only five Asian companies were part of the top 100 transnational companies. The study was carried out by UNCTAD and the identification criterion was the size of foreign assets. In 2006, 14% of world total FDI came from

  12. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  13. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  14. Perspectives on global change theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human-caused global changes in ecological drivers, such as carbon dioxide concentrations, climate, and nitrogen deposition, as well as direct human impacts (land use change, species movements and extinctions, etc.) are increasingly recognized as key to understanding contemporary ecosystem dynamics, ...

  15. Future Global Change and Cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2016-01-01

    The 11 articles in this issue explore how people respond to climate change and other global challenges. The articles pursue three broad strands of enquiry that relate (1) to the effects and causes of "skepticism" about climate change, (2) the purely cognitive challenges that are posed by a complex scientific issue, and (3) the ways in which climate change can be communicated to a wider audience. Cognitive science can contribute to understanding people's responses to global challenges in many ways, and it may also contribute to implementing solutions to those problems. PMID:26749304

  16. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  17. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  18. Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

  19. Symposium on Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Schmalensee

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change, and policies to slow it or adapt to it, may be among the primary forces shaping the world's economy throughout the next century and beyond. Nonetheless, popular treatments of this issue commonly ignore economics. This introductory essay sketches some of the uncertainties and research questions.

  20. Rust fungi and global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfer, Stephan

    2014-02-01

    Rust fungi are important components of ecological communities and in ecosystem function. Their unique life strategies as biotrophic pathogens with complicated life cycles could make them vulnerable to global environmental change. While there are gaps in our knowledge, especially in natural plant–rust systems, this review of the exposure of rust fungi to global change parameters revealed that some host–rust relationships would decline under predicted environmental change scenarios, whereas others would either remain unchanged or become more prevalent. Notably, some graminicolous rusts are negatively affected by higher temperatures and increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2. An increase of atmospheric O3 appears to favour rust diseases on trees but not those on grasses. Combined effects of CO2 and O3 are intermediary. The most important global drivers for the geographical and host plant range expansion and prevalence of rusts, however, are global plant trade, host plant genetic homogenization and the regular occurrence of conducive environmental conditions, especially the availability of moisture. However, while rusts thrive in high-humidity environments, they can also survive in desert habitats, and as a group their environmental tolerance is large, with no conclusive change in their overall prevalence predictable to date.

  1. Global climate change : greenhouse effect

    OpenAIRE

    Attard, David

    1992-01-01

    One of the main problems caused by climate change is the greenhouse effect. Human activities emit so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide which is produced through fossil fuel burning. These gases absorb the earth‘s radiation, forcing the earth‘s temperature, like that of in greenhouse, to rise. Global warming would lead to a rise in the global mean sea-level due to thermal expansion of the waters, and glaciers will melt at a fast rate, as will the Greenland ice...

  2. Ecological effects of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  3. Human response to global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alertness of the global climate and environment change triggered by the effects of the economy of waste of industrial modern society has been raised to governments and populations. World-wide agreements and protocols have been established; they will be improved for action in two major issues: limitation (elimination of CFC's use, reductions of CO2 emissions, increasing energy efficiency, etc.) and adaptation (socio economic impacts, human behaviour, enhancement of predictive models, etc.)

  4. Global biodiversity monitoring: from data sources to essential biodiversity variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proenca, Vania; Martin, Laura J.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Fernandez, Miguel; McRae, Louise; Belnap, Jayne; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Garcia-Moreno, Jaime; Gregory, Richard D.; Honrado, Joao P; Jürgens, Norbert; Opige, Michael; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Tiago, Patricia; van Sway, Chris A

    2016-01-01

    Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

  5. What are the Essential Success Strategies for Global CIOs?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jay Crotts

    2010-01-01

    @@ As a CIO in the global environment,my biggest challenge is to understand the dynamics of how my company operates in each country.Acquiring an understanding of how market maturity affects business strategy helps me develop an IT strategy that supports local markets while enhancing them with the global resources,processes and efficiencies at our disposal.

  6. Essential Web Sites to Research the Globalization Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Thomas J.; O'Sullivan, Michael

    2002-01-01

    The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, brought a stark reality to social studies classrooms throughout the United States. Globalism and the expansion of world trade relations created optimism about enhanced cultural understanding, peace, and economic prosperity. However, it is clear that globalization also has a dark side. Suddenly…

  7. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    OpenAIRE

    Anja Marunović; Tomislav Prokopec

    2016-01-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles ...

  8. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  9. Global Environmental change: Understanding the Human Dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is from the National Research Council's Committee on the Human dimensions of Global Change. The object is to examine what is known about human dimensions of global environmental change, identify the major immediate needs for knowledge, and recommend a strategy over the next 5-10 years. Case studies are used in human causes of global change. issues related to theory, methods, and data are covered, as well as institutional needs for interdicipinary approaches

  10. Global change research: Science and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  11. Global change research: Science and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change

  12. Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoda, Haruhisa

    In order to meet the requirements of Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as to continue the ADEOS and ADEOS2 missions, JAXA is now planning the GCOM mission which is composed of a series of satellites. There are two series of satellites, and they are now called GCOM-W and GCOM-C satellites. Both series are composed of 3 satellites with 5 years lifetime. Hence, 13 years of continuous observation can be assured with 1 year overlaps. The first satellite of GCOM-W will be launched in fiscal 2011 while the first one of GCOM-C will be launched in fiscal 2013. In regard to global warming, the GCOM intends the measurement of most factors involved in the energy and water cycle and material cycle, which are the main mechanisms determining climate change, and also analysis of the relevant processes. Within the material cycle, measurement of the carbon cycle is a key subject. In this particular field, the GCOM aims at estimating the primary production as well as carbon flux based on measurement data on land vegetation and phytoplankton. In regard to changes of the land environment, the measuring subjects are tropical forests and the global distribution of vegetation and its changes. In regard to the cryosphere, the sea ice concentration and snow coverage are measured and their interaction with the climate is analyzed. GCOM-W1 will carry AMSR2 (AMSR F/O). AMSR2 will be very similar to AMSR on ADEOS2 and AMSR-E on EOS-Aqua with some modifications. The aperture of AMSR2 is 2m, and AMSR2 will have more accurate hot load than AMSR. Two kinds of modification are intro-duced. One is to use an actively controlled thermal reflector over the hot load. This reflector is called a temperature controlled plate (TCP). Another modification is to shield the ambient emissions. GCOM-C1 will carry GLI F/O (called the second generation GLI : SGLI). The SGLI will be rather different from GLI on ADEOS2. The main targets of SGLI are atmospheric aerosols, coastal zone and land

  13. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Science.gov (United States)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  14. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis, Fred [Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison, NJ 07940 (United States)

    2009-12-15

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  15. Peak globalization. Climate change, oil depletion and global trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The global trade in goods depends upon reliable, inexpensive transportation of freight along complex and long-distance supply chains. Global warming and peak oil undermine globalization by their effects on both transportation costs and the reliable movement of freight. Countering the current geographic pattern of comparative advantage with higher transportation costs, climate change and peak oil will thus result in peak globalization, after which the volume of exports will decline as measured by ton-miles of freight. Policies designed to mitigate climate change and peak oil are very unlikely to change this result due to their late implementation, contradictory effects and insufficient magnitude. The implication is that supply chains will become shorter for most products and that production of goods will be located closer to where they are consumed. (author)

  16. International law and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Churchill, R.; Freestone, D. (eds.)

    1991-01-01

    If climatic change is a global problem, it can only have a global solution, which must be brought about through the development of appropriate international law. This book tackles the legal problems that are at the heart of the matter. It has chapters on the following: international law and the protection of the global atmosphere; the precautionary principle; international equity and global warming; tropical forests; development issues; the role of international non-governmental organisations; international law and sea level rise; the international legal protection of wildlife; controlling emissions of greenhouse gases; institutional and legal reponses to global warming; and the negotiation and drafting of the climate change convention. There are a number of appendices containing documents on global climate change. Seven chapters are abstracted separately.

  17. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marunović, Anja; Prokopec, Tomislav

    2016-05-01

    If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed). Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  18. Global monopoles can change Universe's topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Marunović

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available If the Universe undergoes a phase transition, at which global monopoles are created or destroyed, topology of its spatial sections can change. More specifically, by making use of Myers' theorem, we show that, after a transition in which global monopoles form, spatial sections of a spatially flat, infinite Universe becomes finite and closed. This implies that global monopoles can change the topology of Universe's spatial sections (from infinite and open to finite and closed. Global monopoles cannot alter the topology of the space-time manifold.

  19. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly;

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...... is subject to change and the nature of competition in agriculture-based business, focusing on wine....

  20. New Views on Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xiaoying; Yang Xuexiang; Du Xinwei

    2000-01-01

    Many cosmic facts , such as the earth orbit, the activity of the sun, the moon and the planet orbits and so on,may effect on geological processes on the earth including precipitation. It is a serious problem that the human being is facing with water deficiency. Global cooling and tectonic activity are the major factors of desertification and human action aggravates this process. It is time to do something to prevent the acceleration in the mature and artificial hazards. We must keep the balance of nature for sustainable development.

  1. Editorial—Global Climate Change and Contaminants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Sanderson

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This Special Issue in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health focuses on the inter-linkage between the global distribution of contaminants and climate change. [...

  2. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    the bacterial soil population. The thesis addresses the effects of different global change manipulations on the soil microbial community composition (climate change in Manuscript 1-4 and unconventional urban fertilizers in Manuscript 5-6). A special emphasis was put on combining molecular techniques like 454......’ of climate change manipulations on soil microorganisms and nutrient availability in a Danish heathland, where the samples were taken shortly after a prolonged pre-summer drought. The major findings in the study are that warming increased measures of fungi and bacteria and drought might shift/change...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

  3. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    OpenAIRE

    EK Shuman

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengu...

  4. Globalization and Climate Change Regulations in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Yanti Sulistiawati

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Globalization is rampant in every aspect of human life. Climate change is a global issue and hence Indonesia must equip itself with sufficient national laws and regulations that are easily implemented. Securing funds from the international community is also a strategy to prepare the nation to face climate change. Globalisasi terjadi di setiap aspek kehidupan manusia. Perubahan iklim adalah isu global sehingga Indonesia harus mempersiapkan diri dengan cara menyusun peraturan perundang-undangan nasional yang dapat diterapkan dengan mudah. Mendapatkan dana bantuan internasional juga merupakan strategi yang dapat diambil untuk mempersiapkan diri menghadapi perubahan iklim.

  5. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  6. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  7. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  8. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Pinkse; A. Kolk

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  9. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  10. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  11. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  12. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  13. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  14. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed A. Hady

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  15. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed A. Hady

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the trop...

  16. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hady, Ahmed A

    2013-05-01

    This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue. PMID:25685420

  17. Global climate change and California's water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This chapter records the deliberations of a group of California water experts about answers to these and other questions related to the impact of global warming on California's water resources. For the most part, those participating in the deliberations believe that the current state of scientific knowledge about global warming and its impacts on water resources is insufficient to permit hard distinctions to be made between short- and long-term changes. consequently, the ideas discussed here are based on a number of assumptions about specific climatic manifestations of global warming in California, as described earlier in this volume. Ultimately, however, effective public responses to forestall the potentially costly impacts of global climate change will probably depend upon the credible validation of the prospects of global climate warming. This chapter contains several sections. First, the likely effects of global warming on California's water resources and water-supply systems are identified and analyzed. Second, possible responses to mitigate these effects are enumerated and discussed. Third, the major policy issues are identified. A final section lists recommendations for action and major needs for information

  18. Pedosphere and Its Effect on Global Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    With development of modern geoscience, particularly development of environmental sciences, the con temporary soil science is undergoing great changes in both research contents and scope. Soil is not only a certain substance or a certain independent natural historical body but also a spheric layer with peculiar structure and functions in the earth system. From the viewpoint of the geo-biosphere system of earth, soil science does deal not only with the soil substances per se but also more importantly with the relationships among soil, the other spheres and the human survival environment in view of the “pedosphere”. This is the new orientation of soil science today and will affect profoundly the studies on the human survival environment and global changes. To throw more light on this subject, the present paper intends to address the conception of pedosphere and its role in global changes. Also addressed are series of environmental issues in China and their relations to the global changes. Moreover, research orientation and priorities are indicated, including exploitation and protection of the soil resources, soil fertility and sustainable agricultural development, con struction of the ecological environment, and the material cycling in pedosphere and its relation to global changes.

  19. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  20. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  1. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  2. Global change: state of the science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, D J; Jain, A; Edmonds, J; Harvey, D; Hayhoe, K

    1999-01-01

    Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations. PMID:15093113

  3. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    composition of fungi, but the effects were generally limited to the litter layer and the uppermost humus layer (0-5 cm), which was unexpected considering the ecosystem had been manipulated for 18 years. Taken together the global change experiments altered the soil fungal communities and thereby highlight...

  4. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  5. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  6. Satellite Contributions to Global Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2009-01-01

    By providing a global view with a level playing field (no region missed because of unfavorable surface conditions or political boundaries), satellites have made major contributions to improved monitoring and understanding of our constantly changing planet. The global view has allowed surprising realizations like the relative sparsity of lightning strikes over oceans and the large-scale undulations on the massive Antarctic ice sheet. It has allowed the tracking of all sorts of phenomena, including aerosols, both natural and anthropogenic, as they move with the atmospheric circulation and impact weather and human health. But probably nothing that the global view allows is more important in the long term than its provision. of unbiased data sets to address the issue of global change, considered by many to be among the most important issues facing humankind today. With satellites we can monitor atmospheric temperatures at all latitudes and longitudes, and obtain a global average that lessens the likelihood of becoming endlessly mired in the confusions brought about by the certainty of regional differences. With satellites we can monitor greenhouse gases such as CO2 not just above individual research stations but around the globe. With satellites we can monitor the polar sea ice covers, as we have done since the late 1970s, determining and quantifying the significant reduction in Arctic sea ice and the slight growth in Antarctic sea ice over that period, With satellites we can map the full extent and changes in the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletions that were first identified from using a single ground station; and through satellite data we have witnessed from afar land surface changes brought about by humans both intentionally, as with wide-scale deforestation, and unintentionally, as with the decay of the Aral Sea. The satellite data are far from sufficient for all that we need in order to understand the global system and forecast its changes, as we also need

  7. Biological approaches to global environment change mitigation and remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, F Ian; Bardgett, Richard D; Raven, John A; Hetherington, Alistair M

    2009-07-28

    One of the most pressing and globally recognized challenges is how to mitigate the effects of global environment change brought about by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, especially CO(2). In this review we evaluate the potential contribution of four biological approaches to mitigating global environment change: reducing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations through soil carbon sequestration and afforestation; reducing predicted increases in global surface temperatures through increasing the albedo of crop plants; and fertilizing the oceans to increase primary productivity and CO(2) drawdown. We conclude that none of these biological approaches are 'magic bullets' capable of reversing environmental changes brought about by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. However, it is possible that increasing crop albedo and soil carbon sequestration might contribute towards mitigation on a regional scale. In the absence of legally binding international agreements to reduce CO(2) emissions, we propose that: increased efforts are made to identify novel biological mitigatory strategies; further research is conducted to minimise the uncertainties present in all four of the biological approaches described; and pilot-level field work is conducted to examine the feasibility of the most promising strategies. Finally, it is essential to engage with the public concerning strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change because the majority of the biological approaches have effects, quite possibly of a negative nature, on ecosystem services and land usage.

  8. International Business and Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2008-11-15

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance.

  9. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  10. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  11. International Business and Global Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and climate change policy. Embedded in relevant management literature, this book gives a concise treatment of developments in policy and business activity on global, regional and national levels, using examples and systematic data from a large number of international companies. The first part outlines the international climate policy landscape and voluntary initiatives taken by companies, both alone and together with others. The second part examines companies' strategies, covering innovation for climate change, as well as compensation via emissions trading and carbon offsetting. Written by well-known experts in the field, International Business and Global Climate Change illustrates how an environmental topic becomes strategically important in a mainstream sense, affecting corporate decision-making, business processes, products, reputation, advertising, communication, accounting and finance

  12. The changing global context of public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Beaglehole, R

    2000-08-01

    Future health prospects depend increasingly on globalisation processes and on the impact of global environmental change. Economic globalisation--entailng deregulated trade and investment--is a mixed blessing for health. Economic growth and the dissemination of technologies have widely enhanced life expectancy. However, aspects of globalisation are jeopardising health by eroding social and environmental conditions, exacerbating the rich-poor gap, and disseminating consumerism. Global environmental changes reflect the growth of populations and the intensity of economic activity. These changes include altered composition of the atmosphere, land degradation, depletion of terrestrial aquifers and ocean fisheries, and loss of biodiversity. This weakening of life-supporting systems poses health risks. Contemporary public health must therefore encompass the interrelated tasks of reducing social and health inequalities and achieving health-sustaining environments. PMID:10981904

  13. Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

    2011-01-01

    Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

  14. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  15. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  16. Global climate change: Is global warming a health warning?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rainham, D.

    1999-12-01

    Consequences to the health of human populations of ignoring various signs that global climate change is a large and qualitatively distinct environmental health hazard are discussed. Evidence is cited to illustrate how even low ambient concentrations of air pollution can have deleterious and harmful impacts on human health, and a warning is issued about the dangers of conducting an unpredictable rather massive experiment with the earth's atmosphere. Opportunities for adaptation such as conservation of freshwater and agricultural land, combined with education, technological development and individual behavioral change, and drastic reduction of anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases to lessen the effects of impending climatic change have been much talked about, but action has been non-existent, or tentative at best. Part of the reason for the apparent lack of willingness to act is largely economic, aided by the many remaining uncertainties regarding the impact of climate change, especially in so far as human health is concerned. However, this author's view is that our limited understanding of the relationship among the growing list of atmospheric pollutants and their effect on the ecosystems on which we depend, is no reason not to take action until it becomes too late.

  17. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britten, Gregory L; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  18. A Pioneer of Global Change Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ One summer's day in 1984, a meteorologist came all the way from the United States to Prof. Ye Duzheng, a CAS atmospheric scientist in Beijing, in the hope of establishing cooperative research into global climate change, a field unfamiliar to most scientists in the world at that time. His proposal immediately caught the interest of Ye, who was then president of the Chinese Meteorological Society and vice-president of CAS. Prof. Ye believed it to be an extremely important issue requiring sustained and collaborative attention. Already in his seventies, he found some young researchers to work with him in the field. Two decades later, global change is now recognized as a major science branch. As a pioneer of this branch, Prof. Ye was awarded the prestigious Prize of the World Meteorological Organization in 2003, and honored with China's National Supreme S&T Award in 2005.

  19. Global change and climate-vegetation classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of "global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)" which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (ⅰ) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (ⅱ) characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (ⅲ) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

  20. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  1. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    OpenAIRE

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-01-01

    The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the ...

  2. Technologies for global change earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  3. Biological diversity, ecology, and global climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Jutro, P R

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Unlike classical public health issues and many environmental issues, their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat that may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of th...

  4. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  5. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves

  6. Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, L.; Solomon, S. C.; Lastovicka, J.; Roble, R. G.

    2011-12-01

    Anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases warm the troposphere but have a cooling effect in the middle and upper atmosphere. The steady increase of CO2 is the dominant cause of upper atmosphere trends. Long-term changes of other radiatively active trace gases such as CH4, O3, and H2O, long-term changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, and other possible drivers also play a role. Observational and model studies have confirmed that in the past several decades, global cooling has occurred in the mesosphere and thermosphere; the cooling and contraction of the upper atmosphere has lowered the ionosphere, increased electron density in the lower ionosphere, but slightly decreased electron density in the upper ionosphere. Limited observations have suggested long-term changes in the occurrence rate of major stratospheric warming, mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, wave activities and turbulence in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, and occurrence of noctilucent clouds or polar mesospheric clouds. However, possible long-term changes of these parameters remain to be open questions due to lack of measurements. We will review recent progress in observations and simulations of global change in the upper atmosphere, and discuss future investigations with a focus on how measurements by commercial reusable suborbital vehicles can help resolve the open questions.

  7. Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

    2014-12-01

    Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

  8. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  9. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  10. Can air pollutant controls change global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Air pollution policies do not affect long-term climate targets. • Reduction of aerosols counteracts a fraction of the reduction of Kyoto forcing. • Air pollution policies may affect the rate of climate change in the short term. • There is no tradeoff between clean air and climate policies. - Abstract: In this paper we analyze the interaction between climate and air pollution policies using the integrated assessment model REMIND coupled to the reduced-form climate model MAGICC. Since overall, aerosols tend to cool the atmosphere, there is a concern that a reduction of pollutant emissions could accelerate global warming and offset the climate benefits of carbon dioxide emission reductions. We investigate scenarios which independently reduce emissions from either large-scale sources, such as power plants, or small-scale sources, such as cooking and heating stoves. Large-scale sources are likely to be easier to control, but their aerosol emissions are characterized by a relatively high sulfur content, which tends to result in atmospheric cooling. Pollution from small-scale sources, by contrast, is characterized by a high share of carbonaceous aerosol, which is an important contributor to global warming. We find that air pollution policies can significantly reduce aerosol emissions when no climate policies are in place. Stringent climate policies lead to a large reduction of fossil fuel use, and therefore result in a concurrent reduction of air pollutant emissions. These reductions partly reduce aerosol masking, thus initially counteracting the reduction of greenhouse gas forcing, however not overcompensating it. If climate policies are in place, air pollution policies have almost no impacts on medium- and long-term radiative forcing. Therefore there is no conflict of objectives between clean air and limiting global warming. We find that the stringency of air pollution policies may influence the rate of global temperature change in the first decade

  11. How Will Changes in Globalization Impact Growth in South Asia?

    OpenAIRE

    Ghani, Ejaz; Anand, Rahul

    2009-01-01

    The current global crisis may change globalization itself, as both developed and developing countries adjust to global imbalances that contributed to the crisis. Will these changes help or hinder economic recovery and growth in South Asia? This is the focus of this paper. The three models of globalization--trade, capital, and economic management--may not be the same in the future. Changes ...

  12. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  13. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  14. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  15. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

  16. Global climate change and children's health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, Katherine M

    2007-11-01

    There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. The nature and extent of these changes will be greatly affected by actions taken or not taken now at the global level. Physicians have written on the projected effects of climate change on public health, but little has been written specifically on anticipated effects of climate change on children's health. Children represent a particularly vulnerable group that is likely to suffer disproportionately from both direct and indirect adverse health effects of climate change. Pediatric health care professionals should understand these threats, anticipate their effects on children's health, and participate as children's advocates for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies now. Any solutions that address climate change must be developed within the context of overall sustainability (the use of resources by the current generation to meet current needs while ensuring that future generations will be able to meet their needs). Pediatric health care professionals can be leaders in a move away from a traditional focus on disease prevention to a broad, integrated focus on sustainability as synonymous with health. This policy statement is supported by a technical report that examines in some depth the nature of the problem of climate change, likely effects on children's health as a result of climate change, and the critical importance of responding promptly and aggressively to reduce activities that are contributing to

  17. Global Climate Change: Role of Livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.K. Naqvi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is seen as a major threat to the survival of many species, ecosystems and the sustainability of livestock production systems in many parts of the world. Green house gases (GHG are released in the atmosphere both by natural sources and anthropogenic (human related activities. An attempt has been made in this article to understand the contribution of ruminant livestock to climate change and to identify the mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emission in livestock. The GHG emissions from the agriculture sector account for about 25.5% of total global radiative forcing and over 60% of anthropogenic sources. Animal husbandry accounts for 18% of GHG emissions that cause global warming. Reducing the increase of GHG emissions from agriculture, especially livestock production should therefore be a top priority, because it could curb warming fairly rapidly. Among the GHGs, CH4 is considered to be the largest potential contributor to the global warming phenomenon. Ruminant livestock such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats contributes the major proportion of total agricultural emission of methane. Indian livestock system is a large contributor to GHGs and therefore also to the global warming phenomenon. Methane emission from enteric fermentation from Indian livestock ranged from 7.26 to 10.4 MT/year. In India more than 90% of the total methane emission from enteric fermentation is being contributed by the large ruminants (cattle and buffalo and rest from small ruminants and others. Generally CH4 reduction strategies can be grouped under two broad categories such as management and nutritional strategies. Although the reduction in GHG emissions from livestock industries are seen as high priorities, strategies for reducing emissions should not reduce the economic viability of enterprises if they are to find industry acceptability.

  18. Global warming and changes in ocean circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, P.B.; Caldeira, K.C.

    1998-02-01

    This final report provides an overview of the goals and accomplishments of this project. Modeling and observational work has raised the possibility that global warming may cause changes in the circulation of the ocean. If such changes would occur they could have important climatic consequences. The first technical goal of this project was to investigate some of these possible changes in ocean circulation in a quantitative way, using a state-of -the-art numerical model of the ocean. Another goal was to develop our ocean model, a detailed three-dimensional numerical model of the ocean circulation and ocean carbon cycles. A major non-technical goal was to establish LLNL as a center of excellence in modelling the ocean circulation and carbon cycle.

  19. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  20. Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

  1. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  2. Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

  3. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic 'learning rates' that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. These simple observations allow three improvements to modeling of technological change and its consequences for global environmental change. One is that the replacement of long-lived infrastructures over time has also replaced the fuels that power the economy to yield progressively more energy per unit of carbon pollution - from coal to oil to gas. Such replacement has 'decarbonized' the global primary energy supply 0.3% per year. In contrast, most baseline projections for emissions of carbon, the chief cause of global warming, ignore this robust historical trend and show Iittle or no decarbonization. A second improvement is that by incorporating learning curves and

  4. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  5. Global coccolithophore diversity: Drivers and future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Colleen J.; Vogt, Meike; Gruber, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    We use the MAREDAT global compilation of coccolithophore species distribution and combine them with observations of climatological environmental conditions to determine the global-scale distribution of coccolithophore species diversity, its underlying drivers, and potential future changes. To this end, we developed a feed-forward neural network, which predicts 78% of the observed variance in coccolithophore diversity from environmental input variables (temperature, PAR, nitrate, silicic acid, mixed layer depth, excess phosphate (P∗) and chlorophyll). Light and temperature are the strongest predictors of coccolithophore diversity. Coccolithophore diversity is highest in the low latitudes, where coccolithophores are a relatively dominant component of the total phytoplankton community. Particularly high diversity is predicted in the western equatorial Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean, with additional peaks at approximately 30°N and 30°S. The global, zonal mean pattern is dominated by the Pacific Ocean, which shows a clear latitudinal gradient with diversity peaking at the equator, whereas in the Atlantic Ocean diversity is highest in the subtropics. We find a unimodal relationship between coccolithophore diversity and biomass, as has previously been observed for total phytoplankton assemblages. In contrast, diversity shows a negative relationship with total chlorophyll. Applying our diversity model to projections from the CMIP5 climate models, we project an increase in the diversity of coccolithophore assemblages by the end of this century.

  6. Global change. Impacts on water and food security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringler, Claudia [International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Biswas, Asit K. [Third World Centre for Water Management, Los Clubes, Atizapan (Mexico); Cline, Sarah A. (eds.) [United States Department of Agriculture, Riverdale, MD (US). Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS)

    2010-07-01

    This volume examines the various drivers of global change, including climate change, and the use of agricultural knowledge, science, and technology, as well as the outcomes of global change processes, including impacts on water quality and human well-being. Several authors examine potential policy and institutional solutions afforded by globalization to the challenges ahead, particularly the role of trade policy. Financing water development in a more globalized world and adapting to global warming are also examined. (orig.)

  7. Stable isotopes in global change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a globally changing world the composition of the atmosphere, in particular the abundance of the trace gases plays an important role for life on earth as a whole. All organic matter is synthesized from water and CO2, which contributes only 0.037 % to the gas volume of the atmosphere. This quantity, while seemingly small, is at the heart of our concern because the earth has seen an unprecedented rise of CO2 in the last 200 years. An important property of CO2 and other trace gases in the atmosphere is the ability to absorb infrared photons and thus retain some of the heat of the sun scattered at the surface of the earth that would otherwise be lost to open space. As a consequence the earth has become warmer in the past. For mankind and life on earth as a whole the question is, how much more the average global temperature can increase before the consequences my become unbearable. High precision concentration measurements of CO2 were started in 1958 by C.D. Keeling in Hawaii and shortly after the South Pole. These measurements have proven to be an invaluable tool, almost like an earth clinical thermometer, by tightly monitoring the continuous increase and inter- and intraannual variability of CO2 as well as the phase difference of these properties between the hemispheres. Other trace gases like CH4 and N2O have since proven their importance as greenhouse gases or in connection with the ozone chemistry and today are closely observed in a large number of stations around the globe. Because of the small differences from year to year or inside functioning ecosystems quantification of the trace gases must be made with utmost precision, stretching the physical limits of existing analytical instrumentation. CO2 in the atmosphere is only a small fraction of the global CO2 (most of it is dissolved in the world oceans) and carbon in CO2 is only a small fraction of the global carbon cycle. In order to quantitatively understand the processes involved in the rise (and possible

  8. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  9. Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yongfei

    2003-01-01

    Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification. These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and low-18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1) did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.

  10. Malaysia's contributions towards global climate change concerns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Concerns about Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change were voiced by the scientific community as far back as the International Geophysical year in 1957 when climate changes scenarios and impacts were analysed. More recently, the United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992, renewing a global acknowledgement and commitment towards curbing GHG emissions. Little progress was made until the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in December 1997, over 5 years later. Basically, developed countries would not commit to strong measures if there were no global effort (i. e. corresponding efforts by developing countries) while developing countries are waiting for developed countries to show concrete results first. Since 1950, developed countries cumulatively produced more than 80% of worldwide GHG emissions. Between 1950 and 1990, North America alone contributed 40 billion tons of carbon while Western and Eastern Europe contributed 57 billion tons. Developing countries produced only 24 billion tons of carbon emissions during the same period. At present, per capita emission in developed countries are also about ten times higher than those of developing countries. This imbalance has caused most developing countries to adopt a wait till others do it stance and justifiably so. Nonetheless, curbing GHG emissions should be a larger community effort (which includes business and the public) and not just the efforts of Governments and officials. Thus, the deciding factors should make more business or economic sense. It is likely that business and the general public would listen and contribute positively if they are made aware of potential cost savings and international competitiveness to be derived from these efforts. During the current economic slowdown, especially in East Asia, it makes business sense to defer the capital investment in new electricity generating capacity and related energy supply infrastructure. Pusat Tenaga Malaysia

  11. Global Sea Level Change and Thermal Contribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2009-01-01

    The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

  12. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  13. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  14. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice Lineman

    Full Text Available The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV patterns for global warming (GW and Climate change (CC to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  15. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  16. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  17. The Changing Global Context of Virtual Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Ejiwale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The technological revolution occurring in today’s market place has made it possible for many companies to be innovative about the way and where work is done. To get the job done, due to digital revolution, companies have turned to virtual workforce to harness the benefits of connectivity and effective information sharing among stakeholders to get the job done. More important, the success of coordinating work among a virtual workforce for profitability in a rapidly changing global environment depends on “effective indirect communication” between the leadership and the virtual workforce. This article will address the importance of effective communication as a necessary tool for the success of e-leadership, productivity improvement in virtual work environment.

  18. National action to mitigate global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Over 170 participants from 60 countries met for three days in Copenhagen from 7 to 9 June 1994 to discuss howe the aims of the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change can be translated into practical action. The Conference was organised by the UNEP collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE), with financial support from the Danish International Development Agency (Danida), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark. The main objective of the conference was to identify common approaches to national mitigation analysis for countries to use in meeting their commitments under the FCCC, and in setting priorities for national actions. Although addressing a broader theme, the conference marked the completion and publication of the second phase on UNEP Greenhouse Gas Abatement Costing Study. (au)

  19. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desbois, M. (ed.) (Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique); Desalmand, F. (ed.) (Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique)

    1994-01-01

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: (1) Paleoclimatology, (2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, (3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, (4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, (5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  20. Global precipitations and climate change. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The workshop reviewed the present status of knowledge concerning the past and present evolution of the distribution of precipitations at global scale, related to climate evolution at different time scales. This review was intended to assess the availability and quality of data which could help, through validation and initialization of model studies, to improve our understanding of the processes determining these precipitation changes. On another hand, the modelling specialists presented their actual use of precipitation data. Exchanges of views between the modelling and observing communities were thus made possible, leading to a set of recommendations for future studies. Sessions were then devoted to specific themes: 1) Paleoclimatology, 2) data collection, history and statistics, programmes, 3) methodologies and accuracy of large scale estimation of precipitation from conventional data, 4) estimation of precipitation from satellite data, 5) modelling studies. (orig.)

  1. Boreal forest health and global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauthier, S; Bernier, P; Kuuluvainen, T; Shvidenko, A Z; Schepaschenko, D G

    2015-08-21

    The boreal forest, one of the largest biomes on Earth, provides ecosystem services that benefit society at levels ranging from local to global. Currently, about two-thirds of the area covered by this biome is under some form of management, mostly for wood production. Services such as climate regulation are also provided by both the unmanaged and managed boreal forests. Although most of the boreal forests have retained the resilience to cope with current disturbances, projected environmental changes of unprecedented speed and amplitude pose a substantial threat to their health. Management options to reduce these threats are available and could be implemented, but economic incentives and a greater focus on the boreal biome in international fora are needed to support further adaptation and mitigation actions. PMID:26293953

  2. Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xuexiang; Chen Dianyou

    2000-01-01

    Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.

  3. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  4. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.;

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain...... concerning future states of the earth system. The long-term experiments should be conducted in tandem with complementary process studies, such as those using model ecosystems, species replacements, laboratory incubations, isotope tracers, and greenhouse facilities. Models are essential to assimilate data...

  5. Nitrogen Deposition: A Component of Global Change Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norby, Richard J.

    1997-12-31

    The global cycles of carbon and nitrogen are being perturbed by human activities that increase the transfer from large pools of nonreactive forms of the elements to reactive forms that are essential to the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere. The cycles are closely linked at all scales, and global change analyses must consider carbon and nitrogen cycles together. The increasing amount of nitrogen originating from fossil fuel combustion and deposited to terrestrial ecosystems as nitrogen oxides could increase the capacity of ecosystems to sequester carbon thereby removing some of the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slowing the development of greenhouse warming. Several global and ecosystem models have calculated the amount of carbon sequestration that can be attributed to nitrogen deposition based on assumptions about the allocation of nitrogen among ecosystem components with different carbon-nitrogen ratios. They support the premise that nitrogen deposition is responsible for a an increasing terrestrial carbon sink since industrialization began, but there are large uncertainties related to the continued capacity of ecosystems to retain exogenous nitrogen. Whether terrestrial ecosystems continue to sequester additional carbon will depend in part on their response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which is widely thought to be constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Ecosystem models generally support the conclusion that the responses of ecosystems to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide will be larger, and the range of possible responses will be wider, in ecosystems with increased nitrogen inputs originating as atmospheric deposition.

  6. The greenhouse effect and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ongoing increase in the concentration of infrared-absorbing gases in the atmosphere is already causing and will continue to cause a growing unbalance in the radiation budget of the earth, and consequent warming of the lower atmosphere and earth surface. This climate phenomenon is the manifestation of the greenhouse or blanketing effect of absorbing gases (also known as ''greenhouse gases'') in the earth atmosphere. The main chemical species responsible for the build-up of the greenhouse effect are carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or freons. Despite new regulatory efforts made by governments to slow down the emission of these gases, the combined atmospheric burden could be equivalent to doubling the pre-industrial concentration of carbon dioxide (2xCO2) by the middle of next century. The global warming of the earth surface would eventually reach about 4 deg. C if the 2xCO2 concentration then was maintained constant for a long period. As it is, the transient response of climate to an increasing greenhouse effect is delayed by 50 to 100 years. For this reason, we observe now a much smaller climate warming than would occur for climate equilibrium with the present atmospheric composition, i.e. 125% the pre-industrial concentration of CO2. Impacts of this phenomenon will range from disturbances of the existing hydrological regime of the planet to rise of the global mean sea-level. A warmer atmosphere means more rain but also faster evaporation: consequences in terms of the availability of water resources are unclear at temperate and high latitudes, but an aggravation of aridity in sub-tropical latitudes is probable. Sea-level rise may reach 50 cm by 2100. In general, the rate of climate warming when the climate system starts responding to the greenhouse effect could be 0.3 deg. C per decade, far exceeding the ability of natural ecosystems to adapt effectively to the change. (author). 5 refs, 2 figs

  7. Trends and responses to global change of China's arid regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixi YANG

    2009-01-01

    Ⅰ analyzed and elaborated the trends in and responses to global change in arid regions of China, from the perspective of nine variables, i.e., temperature, precipitation, river runoff, melting glaciers, water level of lakes, wind power and evaporation, vegetation, oases, and desertification. The climate and hydrology data Ⅰ citedrepresent many years of observations. Ⅰ conclude that, since the 1980s, the climate in arid regions of China has clearly changed with rising temperatures and precipitation in most areas. Wind power and the number of galestorm days have continuously decreased, which resulted in an improvement of humid conditions and increases in river discharge and water levels of lakes. Simultaneously, vegetation also has improved and the process of deserti-fication has essentially been arrested. Although there are some unfavorable developments, such as decreased river flows or flow interruptions and downstream oases have suffered from degradation, these incidental cases should not distract our attention from the generally favorable trends during the middle and late 20th century. These discordant phenomena are not consequences of climate change but rather of unsuitable human activities. Despitea substantial increase in precipitation, the level of the original precipitation was so small that any increase in precipitation was still small. As a result, none of the fundamental conditions such as a scarcity of water resources and precipitation nor the landscape of drought-ridden deserts in the arid regions will change. The vulnerability of the eco-environmental system in the arid regions will not change fundamentally either in the near future.

  8. Global change and the groundwater management challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorelick, Steven M.; Zheng, Chunmiao

    2015-05-01

    With rivers in critical regions already exploited to capacity throughout the world and groundwater overdraft as well as large-scale contamination occurring in many areas, we have entered an era in which multiple simultaneous stresses will drive water management. Increasingly, groundwater resources are taking a more prominent role in providing freshwater supplies. We discuss the competing fresh groundwater needs for human consumption, food production, energy, and the environment, as well as physical hazards, and conflicts due to transboundary overexploitation. During the past 50 years, groundwater management modeling has focused on combining simulation with optimization methods to inspect important problems ranging from contaminant remediation to agricultural irrigation management. The compound challenges now faced by water planners require a new generation of aquifer management models that address the broad impacts of global change on aquifer storage and depletion trajectory management, land subsidence, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, seawater intrusion, anthropogenic and geogenic contamination, supply vulnerability, and long-term sustainability. The scope of research efforts is only beginning to address complex interactions using multiagent system models that are not readily formulated as optimization problems and that consider a suite of human behavioral responses.

  9. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  10. Science priorities for the human dimensions of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    The topics covered include the following: defining research needs; understanding land use change; improving policy analysis -- research on the decision-making process; designing policy instruments and institutions to address energy-related environmental problems; assessing impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to global changes; and understanding population dynamics and global change.

  11. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  12. Problem free nuclear power and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuclear fission power reactors represent a solution-in-principle to all aspects of global change possibly induced by inputting of either particulate or carbon or sulfur oxides into the Earth's atmosphere. Of proven technological feasibility, they presently produce high- grade heat for electricity generation, space heating and industrial process-driving around the world, without emitting greenhouse gases or atmospheric particulates. However, a substantial number of major issues currently stand between nuclear power implemented with light- water reactors and widespread substitution for large stationary fossil fuel-fired systems, including long-term fuel supply, adverse public perceptions regarding both long-term and acute operational safety, plant decommissioning, fuel reprocessing, radwaste disposal, fissile materials diversion to military purposes and - perhaps more seriously - cost. We describe a GW-scale, high-temperature nuclear reactor heat source that can operate with no human intervention for a few decades and that may be widely acceptable, since its safety features are simple, inexpensive and easily understood. We provide first-level details of a reactor system designed to satisfy these requirements. Such a back-solving approach to realizing large-scale nuclear fission power systems potentially leads to an energy source capable of meeting all large-scale stationary demands for high- temperature heat. If widely employed to support such demands, it could, for example, directly reduce present-day world-wide CO2 emissions by two-fold; by using it to produce non-carbonaceous fuels for small mobile demands, a second two-fold reduction could be attained. Even the first such reduction would permit continued slow power-demand growth in the First World and rapid development of the Third World, both without any governmental suppression of fossil fuel usage

  13. Managing Labor Market Changes: Essential Skills for Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    The United States labor market has undergone a dramatic sea change with increasing numbers of permanent freelancers and temporary workers. One in three workers has a temporary freelance job. It is estimated that, by 2020, more than 40% of the American labor force-60 million people-will be self-employed. This article discusses labor force trends,…

  14. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  15. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  16. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    CERN Document Server

    Magliocca, N R; Oates, T; Schmill, M

    2013-01-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goal...

  17. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  18. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  19. Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Sutherst, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes ar...

  20. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, P A; Graham, J B; Rosenblatt, R H; Somero, G N

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  1. The US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) requires massive quantities of highly diverse data and information to improve our understanding of global change processes. The Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES) comprises Federal agencies that need to provide reliable data and information for this purpose from existing programs and archives and from new activities designed to improve upon the data and information. This US Global Change Data and Information Management Program Plan commits the participating Federal agencies to work with each other, with academia, and with the international community to make it as easy as possible for researchers and others to access and use global change data and information. Toward this end, the agencies are organizing a Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS), which takes advantage of the mission resources and responsibilities of each agency. Sources for global change data and information are national and international agency programs, including those focused on the USGCRP, such as NASA's Earth Observing System [EOS] and other agency global change initiatives and those contributing to the USGCRP from other agency programs not focused on global change. Data and information include raw data from observation systems, value-added data from data assembly activities, and derived data and information from models and other investigations. Additional data and information are identified from appropriate sources including academia and the international community

  2. Changing global capitalism and the growth of the Indian economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Dige

    The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes.......The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes....

  3. Predicting plant invasion in an era of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Previous studies have indicated that ongoing global change will promote the spread of invasive plants. Recent research points to a more complex response. The components of global change that increase plant resources (e.g., rising CO2, N deposition) most consistently favor invasive species, but, chan...

  4. Botany and a changing world: introduction to the special issue on global biological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Stephen G; Suding, Katharine; Sakai, Ann K

    2013-07-01

    The impacts of global change have heightened the need to understand how organisms respond to and influence these changes. Can we forecast how change at the global scale may lead to biological change? Can we identify systems, processes, and organisms that are most vulnerable to global changes? Can we use this understanding to enhance resilience to global changes? This special issue on global biological change emphasizes the integration of botanical information at different biological levels to gain perspective on the direct and indirect effects of global change. Contributions span a range of spatial scales and include both ecological and evolutionary timescales and highlight work across levels of organization, including cellular and physiological processes, individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Integrative botanical approaches to global change are critical for the ecological and evolutionary insights they provide and for the implications these studies have for species conservation and ecosystem management. PMID:23825138

  5. Ecological response to global climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, G.P.; Butler, D.R.; Walsh, S. J.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change and ecological change go hand in hand. Because we value our ecological environment, any change has the potential to be a problem. Geographers have been drawn to this challenge, and have been successful in addressing it, because the primary ecological response to climate changes in the past — the waxing and waning of the great ice sheets over the past 2 million years – was the changing geographic range of the biota. Plants and animals changed their location. Geographers have been deeply involved in documenting the changing biota of the past, and today we are called upon to help assess the possible responses to ongoing and future climatic change and, thus, their impacts. Assessing the potential responses is important for policy makers to judge the outcomes of action or inaction and also sets the stage for preparation for and mitigation of change.

  6. Changing environments: Coping with diversity and globalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is not surprising that the nuclear community as we know it is becoming more globalized, given that nuclear power has its roots in international cooperation. One only has to go back to the early days, when just over 50 years ago the 'Atoms for Peace' programme was first announced at a plenary meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, to realize that nuclear power really was always a global community. In the years since 1953, we have witnessed the growth of the nuclear industry, which brought with it, among other things: competition between manufacturers from different countries with different design and operating philosophies; individual national cultures and regulatory practices and unique legal systems; and different safety and industrial standards and approaches to technology transfer. Today, the stagnation, or slowdown in construction programmes for nuclear facilities in many countries, combined with the rising costs of R and D, has provided new impetus for the nuclear community to return to a more global outlook. But this new global outlook must grapple with the diversity that grew out of the competition, the individual national cultures, and the unique legal requirements, as well as with the needs of national nuclear industries with different levels of maturity and means. This session will address the new challenges for governments, regulatory authorities, operators, nuclear suppliers, and contractors in facing these and other issues

  7. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  8. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  9. Expanding the Role of FurA as Essential Global Regulator in Cyanobacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés González

    Full Text Available In the nitrogen-fixing heterocyst-forming cyanobacterium Anabaena sp. PCC 7120, the ferric uptake regulator FurA plays a global regulatory role. Failures to eliminate wild-type copies of furA gene from the polyploid genome suggest essential functions. In the present study, we developed a selectively regulated furA expression system by the replacement of furA promoter in the Anabaena sp. chromosomes with the Co2+/Zn2+ inducible coaT promoter from Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. By removing Co2+ and Zn2+ from the medium and shutting off furA expression, we showed that FurA was absolutely required for cyanobacterial growth. RNA-seq based comparative transcriptome analyses of the furA-turning off strain and its parental wild-type in conjunction with subsequent electrophoretic mobility shift assays and semi-quantitative RT-PCR were carried out in order to identify direct transcriptional targets and unravel new biological roles of FurA. The results of such approaches led us to identify 15 novel direct iron-dependent transcriptional targets belonging to different functional categories including detoxification and defences against oxidative stress, phycobilisome degradation, chlorophyll catabolism and programmed cell death, light sensing and response, heterocyst differentiation, exopolysaccharide biosynthesis, among others. Our analyses evidence novel interactions in the complex regulatory network orchestrated by FurA in cyanobacteria.

  10. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  11. Oceans, microbes, and global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Danovaro, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine life and on microbial components. Prokaryotes (Bacteria and Archaea), viruses and other microbial life forms are impacted by ...

  12. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  13. Global climate change attitudes and perceptions among south American zoo visitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebke, Jerry F; Clayton, Susan; Kelly, Lisa-Anne DeGregoria; Grajal, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    There is a substantial gap between the scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change and the human response to this evidence. Perceptions of and responses to climate change can differ among regions of the world, as well as within countries. Therefore, information about the public's attitudes and perceptions related to climate change is essential to the development of relevant educational resources. In the present study, zoo visitors in four South American countries responded to a questionnaire regarding their attitudes and perceptions toward global climate change. Results indicated that most respondents are already highly concerned about global climate change and are interested in greater engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Visitors also perceive various obstacles to engagement in climate change mitigation behaviors. We discuss the results of our study in terms of addressing visitors' climate change attitudes and perceptions within the social and emotional context of zoo settings.

  14. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  15. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  16. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  17. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  18. The Worldviews Network: Transformative Global Change Education in Immersive Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H.; Yu, K. C.; Gardiner, N.; McConville, D.; Connolly, R.; "Irving, Lindsay", L. S.

    2011-12-01

    own research to develop a library of immersive visualization stories and templates that explore ecological relationships across time at cosmic, global, and bioregional scales, with learning goals aligned to climate and earth science literacy principles. These experiential narratives are used to increase participants' awareness of global change issues as well as to engage them in dialogues and design processes focused on steps they can take within their own communities to systemically address these interconnected challenges. More than 600 digital planetariums in the U.S. collectively represent a pioneering opportunity for distributing Earth systems messages over large geographic areas. By placing the viewer-and Earth itself-within the context of the rest of the universe, digital planetariums can uniquely provide essential transcalar perspectives on the complex interdependencies of Earth's interacting physical and biological systems. The Worldviews Network is creating innovative, data-driven approaches for engaging the American public in dialogues about human-induced global changes.

  19. Applying Historic Science Communication Lessons to Today's Global Change Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchio, L. E.

    2009-12-01

    As global population surges towards seven billion and anthropogenic impacts ricochet throughout Earth’s environment, effective science communication has become essential. In today’s digital world where science communication must contend with stiff competition for audience attention, it is crucial to understand the lessons gleaned from a century worth of science communication research. Starting in the early part of the twentieth century a cadre of American scientists began to advocate for better public understanding of science, arguing that better understanding of science meant a better quality of life, better public affairs deliberations, and the elevation of democracy and culture. To improve science communication, many models of the communication process have been developed since then. Starting in the 1940s, science communication researchers adopted the linear communication model of electrical engineering. Over time, the one-way scientific communication of the linear model came to be identified with the deficit model approach—which assumes little prior scientific knowledge on the part of the receiver. A major failure of the deficit model was witnessed during the Mad Cow Disease outbreak in the UK: beef safety was over-simplified in the communication process, people were given a false sense of security, many ended up sick, and public trust in government plummeted. Of the many lessons learned from failures of the deficit model, arguably, the most significant lesson is that the public’s prior knowledge and life experience is always brought to bear on the message, i.e. the message must be contextualized. Here, we examine the major science communication lessons of the past century and discuss how they can inform more effective global change communication.

  20. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  1. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, are ...

  2. International business and global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Sarianna M. Lundan

    2011-01-01

    Approaches to climate change: Technology and institutionsClimate change represents the ultimate trade-off between human wellbeing and the burden placed on the natural environment. The criticality of this trade-off appears in stark relief when the UN's Human Development Index is graphed against the earth's current bio-capacity. The earth's bio-capacity is characterized by the ecological footprint, the ratio of the demand for products divided by the availability of resources. In 1980, a few cou...

  3. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J.; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  4. Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI XiangDong; PENG ChangHui; TIAN DaLun; SUN JianFeng

    2007-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from individual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodologies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of disturbances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthesis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments' decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.

  5. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  6. Illinois task force on global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, B.S. [Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Springfield, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  7. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  8. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  9. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  10. GEOLAND2 global LAI, FAPAR Essential Climate Variables for terrestrial carbon modeling: principles and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baret, F.; Weiss, M.; Lacaze, R.; Camacho, F.; Smets, B.; Pacholczyk, P.; Makhmara, H.

    2010-12-01

    LAI and fAPAR are recognized as Essential Climate Variables providing key information for the understanding and modeling of canopy functioning. Global remote sensing observations at medium resolution are routinely acquired since the 80’s mainly with AVHRR, SEAWIFS, VEGETATION, MODIS and MERIS sensors. Several operational products have been derived and provide global maps of LAI and fAPAR at daily to monthly time steps. Inter-comparison between MODIS, CYCLOPES, GLOBCARBON and JRC-FAPAR products showed generally consistent seasonality, while large differences in magnitude and smoothness may be observed. One of the objectives of the GEOLAND2 European project is to develop such core products to be used in a range of application services including the carbon monitoring. Rather than generating an additional product from scratch, the version 1 of GEOLAND2 products was capitalizing on the existing products by combining them to retain their pros and limit their cons. For these reasons, MODIS and CYCLOPES products were selected since they both include LAI and fAPAR while having relatively close temporal sampling intervals (8 to 10 days). GLOBCARBON products were not used here because of the too long monthly time step inducing large uncertainties in the seasonality description. JRC-FAPAR was not selected as well to preserve better consistency between LAI and fAPAR products. MODIS and CYCLOPES products were then linearly combined to take advantage of the good performances of CYCLOPES products for low to medium values of LAI and fAPAR while benefiting from the better MODIS performances for the highest LAI values. A training database representative of the global variability of vegetation type and conditions was thus built. A back-propagation neural network was then calibrated to estimate the new LAI and fAPAR products from VEGETATION preprocessed observations. Similarly, the vegetation cover fraction (fCover) was also derived by scaling the original CYCLOPES fCover products

  11. Twenty-Five Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2014-12-01

    An interdisciplinary approach to global change research is required for scientific advances that are both fundamental and relevant to real-world problems. The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI), under the leadership of director John Katzenberger, has provided global leadership for such interdisciplinary science over the past 25 years. From its first workshop, AGCI has brought together physical and social scientists researching the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. The sessions are small (usually around 30 participants), held in a retreat-like setting (recently in a tent near a stream), and long enough (a week or more) to allow communication, reflection, and planning. Landmark AGCI science sessions have frequently set the course of future global change research.

  12. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  13. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  14. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment – a representativeness analysis – with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth

  15. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus;

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response...... of the responses to decline with higher-order interactions, longer time periods and larger spatial scales. This means that on average, both positive and negative global change impacts on the biosphere might be dampened more than previously assumed....

  16. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  17. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  18. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping. PMID:18262823

  19. Global Change and Regional Landscape Response and Desertification in Siberia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    V.M. PLYUSNIN; L.V. DANKO

    2011-01-01

    Climate changes and associated natural and anthropogenic processes have manifested themselves particularly clearly during the last two decades.The study of consequences of these changes has become one of the central scientific,social and political issues of our time (Pilot 2000;UNEP 2007).The study of the regional response of landscapes of Siberia to global changes is one of the fundamental tasks,aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of Siberian regions both at present time and in the future.Because in the 21 st century we should expect strong changes the humidity regime,accompanying the global warming (CCD 1994).

  20. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, P.A.; Graham, J.B.; Rosenblatt, R.H.; Somero, G.N. (University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  1. Global warming: a changing climate for hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper quantifies the benefits attributable to hydroelectric power generation in preventing carbon dioxide emissions from the use of thermal plants. It proposes that utilities and funding agencies consider the societal costs associated with the emission of CO2 in power system planning. It also suggests that the industrialized countries should consider changing their funding practice and give more appropriate credits for the construction of hydro plants in developing countries, with a view to avoiding the construction and operation of fossil fuelled powerplants. (author)

  2. Torrential activity facing global change in Southern French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lissak, Candide; Cossart, Etienne; Viel, Vincent; Fort, Monique; Arnaud-Fassetta, Gilles; Carlier, Benoit

    2016-04-01

    Geomorphic activity in a torrential catchment may be highly sporadic, erratic, especially because it depends on the sediment transfers. For a better flood risk management in large river catchments, where torrential tributaries provide significant sediment supply, it is essential to assess the amount of sediment transfers and deposition of such tributaries so that hazard assessment can be apprehended globally. This is one major issue of the SAMCO project (ANR 12 SENV-0004 SAMCO), which was designed for mountain hazard mitigation in a context of Global Change. Here, our objective is to understand how sediment cascades are coupled (or not) with climatic parameters. Here we focus on the Guil River catchment (Queyras, Southern French Alps - 317 km²). This catchment is prone to devastating summer floods (19 events since 1918: June 1957 (> R.I. 100 yr), June 2000 (R.I. 30 yr)...) characterized by considerable sediment transport from tributaries down to the Guil valley, highly facilitated by strong hillslope-channel coupling (≈ 12,000 m3 volume of sediment aggraded during the June 2000 flood event). During the last flood events several infrastructures and buildings were seriously damaged because the Guil River was carrying a large volume of sediments. For risk mitigation some protection equipments were built after the 1957 flood event, but most of them are now poorly maintained and might be not very effective in case of forthcoming flood events, especially if tributaries provide large volumes of sediment. Geomorphic data acquired through fieldwork and archives investigations were carried out to formalize the overall functioning of the sediment cascade. The initial phase of our study consists in identifying sediment sources and storage grounded on geomorphological analysis and mapping. The volumes of the sediment stores were then estimated and sedimentary transfers assessed using Terrestrial Laser Scanning survey (fine grained sediment inputs in the cascade), and the

  3. Large-river delta-front estuaries as natural "recorders" of global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Thomas S; Allison, Mead A

    2009-05-19

    Large-river delta-front estuaries (LDE) are important interfaces between continents and the oceans for material fluxes that have a global impact on marine biogeochemistry. In this article, we propose that more emphasis should be placed on LDE in future global climate change research. We will use some of the most anthropogenically altered LDE systems in the world, the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River and the Chinese rivers that enter the Yellow Sea (e.g., Huanghe and Changjiang) as case-studies, to posit that these systems are both "drivers" and "recorders" of natural and anthropogenic environmental change. Specifically, the processes in the LDE can influence ("drive") the flux of particulate and dissolved materials from the continents to the global ocean that can have profound impact on issues such as coastal eutrophication and the development of hypoxic zones. LDE also record in their rapidly accumulating subaerial and subaqueous deltaic sediment deposits environmental changes such as continental-scale trends in climate and land-use in watersheds, frequency and magnitude of cyclonic storms, and sea-level change. The processes that control the transport and transformation of carbon in the active LDE and in the deltaic sediment deposit are also essential to our understanding of carbon sequestration and exchange with the world ocean--an important objective in global change research. U.S. efforts in global change science including the vital role of deltaic systems are emphasized in the North American Carbon Plan (www.carboncyclescience.gov). PMID:19435849

  4. The physiology of global change: linking patterns to mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somero, George N

    2012-01-01

    Global change includes alterations in ocean temperature, oxygen availability, salinity, and pH, abiotic variables with strong and interacting influences on the physiology of all taxa. Physiological stresses resulting from changes in these four variables may cause broad biogeographic shifts as well as localized changes in distribution in mosaic habitats. To elucidate these causal linkages, I address the following questions: What types of physiological limitations can alter species' distributions and, in cases of extreme stress, cause extinctions? Which species are most threatened by these physiological challenges--and why? How do contents of genomes establish capacities to respond to global change, notably in the case of species that have evolved in highly stable habitats? How fully can phenotypic acclimatization offset abiotic stress? Can physiological measurements, including new molecular ("-omic") approaches, provide indices of the degree of sublethal stress an organism experiences? And can physiological evolution keep pace with global change? PMID:22457968

  5. Space-based Observation for sensitive Factors of Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Huadong

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global change refers to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, pedosphere and lithosphere over the past century. It is a long process with large dimensions. Factors sensitive to these changes mainly include performance factors (such as temperature and precipitation), response factors (such as eco-system, natural disasters, water resources, variations in snow and ice), and driving factors (greenhouse gases and reflection rates). Global change has caught the attention of the world. China is one of the countries exerting a profound impact on this process. In addition, it has typical and unique zones vulnerable to global change: high-altitude regions (such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau), arid and semi-arid areas (such as farming-grazing transitional zones), long coastal zones and regions for intensive human activities.

  6. Understanding change in global health policy: ideas, discourse and networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmer, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    How is radical change in global health policy possible? Material factors such as economics or human resources are important, but ideational factors such as ideas and discourse play an important role as well. In this paper, I apply a theoretical framework to show how discourse made it possible for public and private actors to fundamentally change their way of working together--to shift from international public and private interactions to global health partnerships (GHPs)--and in the process create a new institutional mechanism for governing global health. Drawing on insights from constructivist analysis, I demonstrate how discourse justified, legitimised, communicated and coordinated ideas about the practice of GHPs through a concentrated network of partnership pioneers. As attention from health policy analysts turns increasingly to ideational explanations for answers to global health problems, this paper contributes to the debate by showing how, precisely, discourse makes change possible. PMID:20924870

  7. Anthropogenic influence on multidecadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douville, H.; Ribes, A.; Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Sheffield, J.

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle, with an increase of both evapotranspiration (EVT) and precipitation. Yet, the magnitude and spatial distribution of this global and annual mean response remains highly uncertain. Better constraining land EVT in twenty-first-century climate scenarios is critical for predicting changes in surface climate, including heatwaves and droughts, evaluating impacts on ecosystems and water resources, and designing adaptation policies. Continental scale EVT changes may already be underway, but have never been attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Here we provide global gridded estimates of annual EVT and demonstrate that the latitudinal and decadal differentiation of recent EVT variations cannot be understood without invoking the anthropogenic radiative forcings. In the mid-latitudes, the emerging picture of enhanced EVT confirms the end of the dimming decades and highlights the possible threat posed by increasing drought frequency to managing water resources and achieving food security in a changing climate.

  8. Purkinje cell axonal anatomy: quantifying morphometric changes in essential tremor versus control brains

    OpenAIRE

    Babij, Rachel; Lee, Michelle; Cortés, Etty; Vonsattel, Jean-Paul G.; Faust, Phyllis L.; Louis, Elan D.

    2013-01-01

    Growing clinical, neuro-imaging and post-mortem data have implicated the cerebellum as playing an important role in the pathogenesis of essential tremor. Aside from a modest reduction of Purkinje cells in some post-mortem studies, Purkinje cell axonal swellings (torpedoes) are present to a greater degree in essential tremor cases than controls. Yet a detailed study of more subtle morphometric changes in the Purkinje cell axonal compartment has not been undertaken. We performed a detailed morp...

  9. Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests.

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Phillips, Oliver L.

    2004-01-01

    Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, ch...

  10. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.;

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available ...

  11. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  12. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  13. Changing environments: Coping with diversity and globalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    nuclear industry representatives such as WANO and the OECD/NEA should develop a strategic plan to correct this issue. How regulatory authorities should be informed and/or responsible for approving significant organizational change in utilities should be considered by the IAEA and other nuclear organizations to provide consensus guidance in this area

  14. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...

  15. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  16. The hybrid outcome of urban change: global city, polarized city?

    OpenAIRE

    Ayat Ismail

    2013-01-01

    A wide range of studies supports the assumption that levels of socio-spatial polarization, segregation, and exclusion are rising in global cities over the past decades as a direct outcome of certain global processes, such as the deindustrialization process, its associated changes in division of labor, and declined redistributive power of the welfare state. However, that assumption – known as the polarization thesis – is criticized based on several contentions, including the oversimplification...

  17. Global Monsoon and Long-Term climate Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Pinxian

    2009-01-01

    @@ The core in the current "Global Warming" debate is how to discriminate the anthropogenic from natural warming. To answer this question, we have to know the natural trend of climate changes, an issue on which scientists' opinions diverge incredibly. Some scientists tell us that the next ice age will not come in some 50 thousands years (Berger & Loutre, 2002), but others believe that new glaciation would have been upon us several thousands years ago, should it be not postponed by early human impact (Ruddiman, 2003). Climatologists now talking on "global warming" warned about "global cooling" over 30 years ago.

  18. Globalization at Risk: The Changing Preferences of States and Societies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Quirk

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available After long, wide trends toward freer and more integratedmarkets, peoples and ideas, reluctance to subordinate the ideals of globalization to state interests shows signs of serious erosion. Recent examples include the breakdown of international institutions, the rise in state control over energy resources and their use as diplomatic leverage, and US abandonment of the principles of globalization. The sources of these changing preferences are both ideological and utilitarian. The result is that key elements of globalization are at risk, but with unpredictable consequences.

  19. Remote sensing for global change, climate change and atmosphere and ocean forecasting. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume is separated in three sessions. First part is on remote sensing for global change (with global modelling, land cover change on global scale, ocean colour studies of marine biosphere, biological and hydrological interactions and large scale experiments). Second part is on remote sensing for climate change (with earth radiation and clouds, sea ice, global climate research programme). Third part is on remote sensing for atmosphere and ocean forecasting (with temperatures and humidity, winds, data assimilation, cloud imagery, sea surface temperature, ocean waves and topography). (A.B.). refs., figs., tabs

  20. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  1. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  2. Global environmental change and extreme weathers. How much does the change cost?; Globale Umweltveraenderungen und Wetterextreme. Was kostet der Wandel?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hiller, B.; Lange, M.A. (eds.)

    2007-07-01

    Global environmental changes and extreme weathers are a challenge of the 21st century. The climatic change only can be described insufficiently with respect to extent, timeframe and consequences. First consequences of climatic changes are extreme weather events with storms, continuous drynesses or heavy rainfalls and the drop of snow and ice in polar regions. The extent and the consequences of global environmental changes as well as strategies for avoidance and adjustment to the change are discussed extensively and controversially in science, politics and society. Within the 16th ZUFO environmental symposium, held at 6th and 7th November, 2006, at the Zentrum fuer Umweltforschung (Muenster, Federal Republic of Germany), the following lectures were held: (a) Global environmental changes and extreme weathers - How much does the change cost? (Bettina Hiller, Manfred A. Lange); (b) the global climatic change (Stefan Rahmstorf); (c) Does the climate become more extreme? Definitions and findings from the global to the regional level (Christian-D. Schoenwiese); (d) Climate models and climate simulations (Ulrich Cubasch and Heike Huebener); (e) Ecosystem consequences of climate change in aquatic environments: pelagic systems of the temperature zones (Ulrich Sommer, Kathrin Lengfellner); (f) Climatic changes in polar regions: State of the art and perspectives for the future (Manfred A. Lange); (g) Emissions trading - review and outlook (Walter Frenz); (h) Climatic change in Europe: Effects on the availability of water (Daniela Jacob); (i) Katrina, Michaela and the hockey stick - Why do journalists use icons in order to report on the climatic change (Christopher Schader); (j) Is there any ethical obligation to act? The climatic change as a question of justice (Andreas Lienkamp); (k) The human being influences the climate - What does one have to pay for it? The economic costs of climatic change (Claudia Kemfert); (l) Adjustment strategies to the pretended climatic change

  3. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    OpenAIRE

    Qingzhu Gao; Wenquan Zhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Hasbagan Ganjurjav; Yunfan Wan; Xiaobo Qin; Xin Ma; Williamson, Matthew A.; Yue Li

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with ...

  4. Global climate change will affect air, water in California

    OpenAIRE

    WEARE, BRYAN C.

    2002-01-01

    As we enter the 21st century, it is possible to reach beyond the headlines to describe what is now known about climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change evaluated the scientific aspects of global climate change; the current consensus is described in a recent series of reports. Since the 19th century, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol dust have increased significantly. While there is scientific agreement that warming is...

  5. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  6. Climate Change, Globalization and Geopolitics in the New Maritime Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Early in the 21st century a confluence of climate change, globalization and geopolitics is shaping the future of the maritime Arctic. This nexus is also fostering greater linkage of the Arctic to the rest of the planet. Arctic sea ice is undergoing a historic transformation of thinning, extent reduction in all seasons, and reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central Arctic Ocean. Global Climate Model simulations of Arctic sea ice indicate multiyear ice could disappear by 2030 for a short period of time each summer. These physical changes invite greater marine access, longer seasons of navigation, and potential, summer trans-Arctic voyages. As a result, enhanced marine safety, environmental protection, and maritime security measures are under development. Coupled with climate change as a key driver of regional change is the current and future integration of the Arctic's natural wealth with global markets (oil, gas and hard minerals). Abundant freshwater in the Arctic could also be a future commodity of value. Recent events such as drilling for hydrocarbons off Greenland's west coast and the summer marine transport of natural resources from the Russian Arctic to China across the top of Eurasia are indicators of greater global economic ties to the Arctic. Plausible Arctic futures indicate continued integration with global issues and increased complexity of a range of regional economic, security and environmental challenges.

  7. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  8. The hybrid outcome of urban change: global city, polarized city?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayat Ismail

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of studies supports the assumption that levels of socio-spatial polarization, segregation, and exclusion are rising in global cities over the past decades as a direct outcome of certain global processes, such as the deindustrialization process, its associated changes in division of labor, and declined redistributive power of the welfare state. However, that assumption – known as the polarization thesis – is criticized based on several contentions, including the oversimplification of the global/local interplay by overlooking the role of local contingent factors that may modify, intensify, or reverse the expected socio-spatial outcome in individual cities. This study aims to capture the hybrid nature of the socio-spatial outcomes of global cities by proving that the complex process of restructuring of cities is a form of structural and chronological hybridity. Through providing a solid empirical ground for investigating the general applicability of the socio-spatial polarization thesis, as well as evaluating the influence of local contexts of cities on the outcomes of urban change. The research offers a theoretical review of the multifaceted restructuring of global cities. Then, the macro trends of global economy are linked to their micro outcomes (segregation patterns within cities, through understanding the implications of cities’ economic functions on local urban policies and housing markets. Finally, the changes in socioeconomic segregation over the past decades are calculated for a large dataset of 66 global cities. The collective result of the analysis shows the downfalls of the generalized hypothesis. While the discussion of individual cities highlights certain contextual particularities, that are contributing to the production of unique socio-spatial configurations in different global cities.

  9. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Chris Riedy; Jade Herriman

    2011-01-01

    On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews). WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15) in December 2009. In this paper, we examine t...

  10. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

  11. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...... with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...

  12. The essential role of expertise on natural resources in climate change Master's education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, P.; Kroeze, C.; Löhr, A.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change may critically affect natural resources that are essential for basic human needs. Water resources are undoubtedly among the most important resources in this respect. Moreover, water plays an important role in the climate system. These examples illustrate why it is important to

  13. Global changes in marine systems: A social-ecological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R. Ian; Barange, Manuel; Ommer, Rosemary E.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents the case for the adoption of a social-ecological approach to marine systems, which recognises the interdependence of biophysical and human social components. It discusses the management and governance challenges that arise when biophysical marine systems and fishing-dependent human communities, considered as interdependent marine social-ecological systems, are stressed by global changes. Drivers of change in marine biophysical systems include processes such as climate variability and change, human processes such as fishing, habitat degradation, and contaminants, and their interactions. Fishing makes marine populations, marine communities, and ecosystems more sensitive to climate forcing. Human communities’ responses to marine ecosystem variability can ameliorate or exacerbate these changes. Drivers of change in fishing-dependent human communities include environmental and resource changes, human social changes relating to demographics, health issues, and shifting societal values, and their interactions at local and global scales. This multi-faceted interdependence means that fisheries management needs to develop approaches which maintain the capacities of both fish and fishing communities, acting as interactive social-ecological systems, to adapt to the impacts of globalization and environmental change. In general, a less-heavily fished marine system managed on an ecosystem basis is likely to provide more stable catches under normal conditions than would a heavily fished system. However, under climate change the whole ecosystem may alter in ways that cannot yet be predicted. Issues of scale are crucial, and fisheries governance needs a concerted effort to contrast and compare multiple local management ‘experiments’, since the exposure, susceptibility, and adaptive capacities of biophysical and human social marine systems varies immensely. These ‘experiments’ should be conducted in developed and developing nations so as to understand

  14. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  15. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  16. Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

  17. Clinical significance of changes in β-adrenoreceptors in peripheral lymphocytes in patients with essential hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Methods In the present study, 69 male patients with essential hypertension at different stages were compared with a group of age-matched normotensive controls. β-adrenoreceptor maximum bound volume (Bmax) in pedpheml lymphocytes was measured by 3H-dihydroalprenolol(3 H-DHA) radio ligand binding.β-adrenoreoeptor responsiveness was determined by Salbutamol(injection). Results In patients with essential hypertension at stages Ⅰ and Ⅱ, Bmax was significantly higher (P<0.01 and P<0.001, respectively) and the chronotropic doses of Salbutamol reqaired to increase the heart rate by 30 beats/min (CD30) were significantly lower(P<0.01 and P<0.001,respectively) than in age-matched normotensive control subjects.In patients with essential hypertension at stage Ⅲ, Bmax was significantly lower and CD30 was significantly higher (both P<0.01) than those in the age-matched normotensive control subjects.Bmax was significantly higher and CD30 was significantly lower (both P<0.001) in patients with essential hypertension and with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) than that in patients with essential hypertension but without LVH. In patients with essential hypertension and heart failure, Bmax was significantly lower and CD30 was significantly higher (both P<0.001) than those in patients with essential hypertension without heart failure.Conclusions The changes of β-adrenoreceptor density and function were related to hypertension,hypertension complicated with ventricular hypertrophy,and heart failure. They may be viewed as indexes of the condition in the patients with essential hypertension.

  18. Voicing as an Essential Problem of Communication: Language and Education of Chinese Immigrant Children in Globalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Jie; Dong, Yan

    2013-01-01

    This article explores voicing processes of identity construction among labor immigrants both inside China and in the Dutch Chinese Diaspora. We provide ethnographically grounded data oriented toward a theoretical point: voicing is an essential problem in communication. Whether one is able to achieve his voice--an outcome of a communicative…

  19. Interactive Sectoring and Animation of Global Change Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Paul J.; Guillory, Anthony; Atkinson, R. J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    1999-01-01

    In order to analyze and share results of global change climate data sets, scientists require a venue in which to exchange their results. The perfect medium for these collaborative efforts is the world wide web. Intuitive and efficient user interfaces, and background processes were developed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center to interactively view weather satellite, radar, global temperature anomaly, and model output data using the world wide web. These tools combine scripts, Java, and C code, which allows the end user to easily interact with data, to create high resolution sector images, and sectored animation sequences. This paper examines the architecture and interfaces which were designed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center and how they are used for collaborative research.

  20. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  1. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    epistemological concerns within the Europeanization literature, this in-the-making research agenda is also faced with a number of methodological challenges. This article deals with some of the most pressing methodological challenges we face when conducting empirical research and moving towards more comprehensive......Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...... as Europeanization - and trends which are usually seen as having a broader global application including market liberalization, the construction of global institutions and policies. While research concerned with domestic change in the face of European integration and globalization in itself is a reaction to pressing...

  2. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed. PMID:26112127

  3. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed.

  4. Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jing X

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.

  5. Global Change Encyclopedia - A project for the international space year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cihlar, J.; Simard, R.; Manore, M.; Baker, R.; Clark, D.; Kineman, J.; Allen, J.; Ruzek, M.

    1991-01-01

    'Global Change Encyclopedia' is a project for the International Space Year in 1992. The project will produce a comprehensive set of satellite and other global data with relevance to studies of global change and of the earth as a system. These data will be packaged on CD-ROMs, accompanied by appropriate software for access, display and manipulation. On behalf of the Canadian Space Agency, the project is being carried out by the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration as major contributors. This paper highlights the background leading to the project, the concept and principal characteristics of the Encyclopedia itself, and the current status and plans.

  6. From global change to Future Earth in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU; Wen-Ling; JIN; Nan; LIN; Zheng; WU; Guo-Xiong

    2015-01-01

    Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China.As a new international research initiative,Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability.The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth,the consultation project Develop ‘Future Earth in China’ for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China.To help promote the sustainability movement in China,Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences,policymakers,and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design,co-produce,and co-delivery.

  7. The role of lidars in global change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological, and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land, and marine terrestrial living organisms. An important aspect of Earth System Science studies in the future is the need to observe simultaneously the physical, chemical, biological, and dynamical processes involved in highly coupled phenomena such as those mentioned. Lidars operating from the surface, aircraft, and satellites provide a powerful observational technique to study the processes and observe trends important to global change. Lidar observations have already played important roles in helping understand processes controlling stratospheric ozone and aerosols, tropospheric clouds, water vapor, ozone, gaseous pollutants, and aerosols, and winds and temperatures throughout the atmosphere. In this paper the author reviews the science of global change and highlights the potential roles for lidar in studying the Earth system

  8. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  9. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  10. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  11. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available

  12. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  13. Structural Changes and Global Trends in European Union Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Ishak Mesic

    2009-01-01

    The article aims at researching and presenting structural changes and global trends in distributive trade of European Union, resulted from liberalization of economic activities within the EU. During the last decades, EU trade went through deep transformation and structural changes. Traditional distributive trade has been replaced by organized and concentrated distribution. Even though, there are many developing trends which unify the EU trade, still there are some differences specific for par...

  14. Modify and Adapt: Global Higher Education in a Changing Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth E. Lane; Pamela Lemoine; Tina M. Tinney; Michael D. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The combinations of global networking and digital delivery have intense repercussions for higher education administrators who confront a magnitude of opportunities and challenges as the result of the digital revolution. Much of the reaction to technological change comes from those with a vested interest in either wholesale change or maintaining the status quo. Taking the resilience metaphor from ecology, the authors propose a framework for analyzing an institution's ability to adapt to digita...

  15. INTRODUCTION: Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard P.; Liepert, Beate G.

    2010-06-01

    The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth's total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation are presented by O'Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an

  16. The influence of greenhouse gases on global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present article is devoted to influence of greenhouse gases on global climate change. Thus, the impacts associated with increasing of CO2 concentration are considered. The impacts associated with decreasing of ozone layer are considered as well. The influence of air temperature on agriculture is studied.

  17. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.;

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes a...

  18. Global climate change: a framework for nursing action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVIN J. ANDREWS

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent research papers and commentaries have articulated the considerable effects that global climate change has had, and will have, on human health. Arguing that nursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation and response efforts, this paper develops a framework for professional consideration and action. Four core components of the framework are common tactics, maximizing specialties, prioritizing places and public scholarship.

  19. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  20. Global climate change--The technology challenge: China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Population growth and developmental pressures, spawned by an increasing demand for resource intensive goods, foods and services, are altering the planet in ways that threaten the long-term well-being of humans and other species. Global climate change and its associated impacts is...

  1. Global and gene specific DNA methylation changes during zebrafish development

    Science.gov (United States)

    DNA methylation is dynamic through the life of an organism. In this study, we measured the global and gene specific DNA methylation changes in zebrafish at different developmental stages. We found that the methylation percentage of cytosines was 11.75 ± 0.96% in 3.3 hour post fertilization (hpf) zeb...

  2. Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

  3. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim;

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  4. National inventory of Global Change relevant research in Norway; Nasjonal kartlegging av global change-relevant forskning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-05-01

    The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.

  5. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

  6. Conceptual design of a measurement network of the global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, P.; Petäjä, T.; Bäck, J.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lappalainen, H. K.; Vihma, T.; Laurila, T.; Viisanen, Y.; Vesala, T.; Kulmala, M.

    2016-01-01

    The global environment is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic emissions and actions. Such activities modify aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to regional and global climate change and affecting, e.g., food and fresh-water security, sustainable use of natural resources and even demography. Here we present a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network that can provide tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. The philosophy behind the conceptual design relies on physical conservation laws of mass, energy and momentum, as well as on concentration gradients that act as driving forces for the atmosphere-biosphere exchange. The network is composed of standard, flux and/or advanced and flagship stations, each of which having specific and identified tasks. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that have to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network as a whole is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity. The most comprehensive observations are envisioned to occur in flagship stations, with which the process-level understanding can be expanded to continental and global scales together with advanced data analysis, Earth system modelling and satellite remote sensing. The denser network of the flux and standard stations allows application and up-scaling of the results obtained from flagship stations to the global level.

  7. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  8. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D; Marti, Eugenia

    2016-07-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream-terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream-riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream-terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  9. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  10. Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

    2008-01-01

    Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

  11. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-05-31

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  12. Climate change at the coast: from global to local

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  13. Speculative Fictions for Understanding Global Change Environments: Two Thought Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Gough

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of a thought experiment, as the term was used by quantum and relativity physicists in the early part of the twentieth century, was not prediction (as is the goal of classical experimental science, but more defensible representations of present ‘realities’. Speculative fictions, from Mary Shelley's Frankenstein to the Star Wars cinema saga, can be read as sociotechnical thought experiments that produce alternative representations of present circumstances and uncertainties, and anticipate and critique possible futures. In this essay I demonstrate how two examples of popular speculative fictions, Frank Herbert's Dune (1965 and Ursula Le Guin's The Telling (2000, function as thought experiments that problematise global transitions in their respective eras. I argue that critical readings of such stories can help us to anticipate, critique, and respond constructively to social and cultural changes and change environments within nation-states that constitute, and are constituted by, global change processes and their effects.

  14. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John K Senior

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  15. A global optimization paradigm based on change of measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Saikat; Roy, Debasish; Vasu, Ram Mohan

    2015-07-01

    A global optimization framework, COMBEO (Change Of Measure Based Evolutionary Optimization), is proposed. An important aspect in the development is a set of derivative-free additive directional terms, obtainable through a change of measures en route to the imposition of any stipulated conditions aimed at driving the realized design variables (particles) to the global optimum. The generalized setting offered by the new approach also enables several basic ideas, used with other global search methods such as the particle swarm or the differential evolution, to be rationally incorporated in the proposed set-up via a change of measures. The global search may be further aided by imparting to the directional update terms additional layers of random perturbations such as 'scrambling' and 'selection'. Depending on the precise choice of the optimality conditions and the extent of random perturbation, the search can be readily rendered either greedy or more exploratory. As numerically demonstrated, the new proposal appears to provide for a more rational, more accurate and, in some cases, a faster alternative to many available evolutionary optimization schemes. PMID:26587268

  16. Global precipitation response to changing external forcings since 1870

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bichet

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and adapting to changes in the hydrological cycle is one of the major challenges for the twenty-first century. To better estimate how it will respond to future changes in climate forcings, it is crucial to understand how it has evolved in the past and why. In our study, we use an atmospheric global climate model with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs to investigate how changing external climate forcings have affected global land temperature and precipitation in the period 1870–2005. We show that prescribed SSTs (encapsulating other forcings are the dominant forcing driving the decadal variability of land temperature and precipitation since 1870. On top of this SSTs forcing, we also find that the atmosphere-only response to increasing aerosol emissions is a reduction in global land temperature and precipitation by up to 0.4 °C and 30 mm year−1, respectively, between about 1930 and 2000. Similarly, the atmosphere-only response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is an increase in global land temperature and precipitation by up to 0.25 °C and 10 mm year−1, respectively, between about 1950 and 2000. Finally, our results also suggest that between about 1950 and 1970, increasing aerosol emissions had a larger impact on the hydrological cycle than increasing greenhouse gases concentrations.

  17. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Jerry M.; Mcguire, A. D.; Kicklighter, David W.; Moore, Berrien, III; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; Schloss, Annette L.

    1993-01-01

    A process-based model was used to estimate global patterns of net primary production and soil nitrogen cycling for contemporary climate conditions and current atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over half of the global annual net primary production was estimated to occur in the tropics, with most of the production attributable to tropical evergreen forest. The effects of CO2 doubling and associated climate changes were also explored. The responses in tropical and dry temperate ecosystems were dominated by CO2, but those in northern and moist temperate ecosystems reflected the effects of temperature on nitrogen availability.

  18. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  19. Assessing In-service Secondary School Science Teachers knowledge base about global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, D.; Roehrig, G. H.; Karahan, E.; Liu, S.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change (GCC) is a crucial environmental issue that is challenging all Americans. With an effective collaboration between researchers, scientists and teachers, conceptual frameworks and methods can be developed for creating climate change content for classroom implementation. In this paper, we describe how teachers' conceptualize and understand global climate change. The information generated by this study can further be used to develop theme based, structured curricula to enhance teachers' understanding of the phenomenon of global climate change. Recent national documents concerning science education have focused on an Earth System approach and concentrate on the fundamental concepts and big ideas in earth science and climate change (e.g., The Earth Science Literacy Initiative (ESLI) (National Science Foundation (NSF), 2009) and Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), 2009)). Unfortunately, research related to teachers' earth science content knowledge has not focused on an earth systems approach rather researchers have examined teachers' misconceptions about isolated earth science concepts, such as moon phases and plate tectonics. While such research implies teachers' lack of knowledge and awareness of earth as a system, it does not provide direct information about teachers' earth system knowledge. Similarly, research on teachers' and students' knowledge of climate change has focused on isolated topics, such as the greenhouse effect and global warming. Our study focused on eliciting secondary school science teachers' understanding of global climate change using a multifaceted and integrated approach. We do so in the context of a 3-year teacher professional development program where the climate science content provided to the teachers was aligned with essential principles of climate science (EPCS-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), 2009). Our study was guided

  20. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

    2015-11-01

    To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to

  1. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  2. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  3. Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper utilizes the predictions of several Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models and the Global Impact Model to create forecasts of the global market impacts from climate change. The forecasts of market impacts in 2100 vary considerably depending on climate scenarios and climate impact sensitivity. The models do concur that tropical nations will be hurt, temperate nations will be barely affected, and high latitude nations will benefit. Although the size of these effects varies a great deal across models, the beneficial and harmful effects are offsetting, so that the net impact on the globe is relatively small in almost all outcomes. Looking only at market impacts, the forecasts suggest that while the global net benefits of abatement are small, the distribution of damages suggests a large equity problem that could be addressed through a compensation program. The large uncertainty surrounding these forecasts further suggests that continued monitoring of both the climate and impacts is worthwhile

  4. How essential are Argo observations to constrain a global ocean data assimilation system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turpin, V.; Remy, E.; Le Traon, P. Y.

    2016-02-01

    Observing system experiments (OSEs) are carried out over a 1-year period to quantify the impact of Argo observations on the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global ocean analysis and forecasting system. The reference simulation assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), SSALTO/DUACS (Segment Sol multi-missions dALTimetrie, d'orbitographie et de localisation précise/Data unification and Altimeter combination system) altimeter data and Argo and other in situ observations from the Coriolis data center. Two other simulations are carried out where all Argo and half of the Argo data are withheld. Assimilating Argo observations has a significant impact on analyzed and forecast temperature and salinity fields at different depths. Without Argo data assimilation, large errors occur in analyzed fields as estimated from the differences when compared with in situ observations. For example, in the 0-300 m layer RMS (root mean square) differences between analyzed fields and observations reach 0.25 psu and 1.25 °C in the western boundary currents and 0.1 psu and 0.75 °C in the open ocean. The impact of the Argo data in reducing observation-model forecast differences is also significant from the surface down to a depth of 2000 m. Differences between in situ observations and forecast fields are thus reduced by 20 % in the upper layers and by up to 40 % at a depth of 2000 m when Argo data are assimilated. At depth, the most impacted regions in the global ocean are the Mediterranean outflow, the Gulf Stream region and the Labrador Sea. A significant degradation can be observed when only half of the data are assimilated. Therefore, Argo observations matter to constrain the model solution, even for an eddy-permitting model configuration. The impact of the Argo floats' data assimilation on other model variables is briefly assessed: the improvement of the fit to Argo profiles do not lead globally to unphysical corrections on the sea surface temperature and sea surface height. The main conclusion

  5. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Townsend Peterson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055 climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  6. Global Change Effects on Plant Chemical Defenses against Insect Herbivores

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    M. Gabriela Bidart-Bouzat; Adebobola Imeh-Nathaniel

    2008-01-01

    This review focuses on individual effects of major global change factors, such as elevated CO2, Oa, UV light and temperature,on plant secondary chemistry. These secondary metabolites are well-known for their role in plant defense against insect herbivory. Global change effects on secondary chemicals appear to be plant species-specific and dependent on the chemical type. Even though plant chemical responses induced by these factors are highly variable, there seems to be some specificity in the response to different environmental stressors. For example, even though the production of phenolic compounds is enhanced by both elevated CO2 and UV light levels, the latter appears to primarily increase the concentrations of fiavonoids. Likewise, specific phenolic metabolites seem to be induced by O3 but not by other factors, and an increase in volatile organic compounds has been particularly detected under elevated temperature. More information is needed regarding how global change factors influence inducibility of plant chemical defenses as well as how their indirect and direct effects impact insect performance and behavior, herbivory rates and pathogen attack. This knowledge is crucial to better understand how plants and their associated natural enemies will be affected in future changing environments.

  7. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  8. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  9. Structural Change, Globalization and Economic Growth in China and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Valli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In their period of rapid economic growth China and India have experienced profound structural transformations. The aim of the paper is to analyze the relation between structural change, the process of globalization and economic growth in the two great Asian countries, using a highly disaggregated dataset for the 1987-2009 period. While China had a longer and more intensive productivity growth than India, the latter had a somewhat more balanced growth. Both countries registered higher within-sectors gains in productivity than between-sectors ones. Our analysis also shows that there exist important feedbacks between structural change, globalization and economic growth over time. When the reallocation of labor is large, it may positively impact on the future rates of economic growth. At the same time, however, it seems that a too rapid economic growth may hinder a smooth reallocation of labor. In both countries, new policies should be designed to favor labor movement across sectors and areas, to reduce the wage-productivity differentials and to integrate the informal sector in formal markets in India, in order to foster structural changes and enhance economic growth. If a too unbalanced economic growth has somewhat limited the extent of structural change, globalization has on the contrary promoted it. High level of export, import and FDI not only has been related to higher rates of economic growth, but also to a deeper reallocation of resources across sectors, modifying the comparative advantage and reorganizing the production.

  10. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  11. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  12. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that are significant and consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of consistent significant change calculatesd relative to both the natural variability and the inter-model spread. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases are large for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube. While discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  13. Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia

    2009-01-01

    Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

  14. Global changes and the air-sea exchange of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Present and potential future changes to the global environment have important implications for marine pollution and for the air-sea exchange of both anthropogenic and natural substances. This report addresses three issues related to the potential impact of global change on the air-sea exchange of chemicals: Global change and the air-sea transfer of the nutrients nitrogen and iron. Global change and the air-sea exchange of gases. Oceanic responses to radiative and oxidative changes in the atmosphere. The deposition of atmospheric anthropogenic nitrogen has probably increased biological productivity in coastal regions along many continental margins. Atmospheric deposition of new nitrogen may also have increased productivity somewhat in mid-ocean regions. The projected future increases of nitrogen oxide emissions from Asia, Africa and South America will provide significant increases in the rate of deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the central North Pacific, the equatorial Atlantic, and the equatorial and central South Indian Oceans. Atmospheric iron may be an important nutrient in certain open regions. Future changes will likely occur if there are changing patterns of aridity and wind speed as a result of climate change. The most important future effects on surface ocean pCO2 will likely be caused by changes in ocean circulation. The pH of the ocean would decrease by ∼0.3 units for a doubling of pCO2, reducing the capacity of the ocean to take up CO2. There is increasing evidence that dimethyl sulfide from the ocean is a source of cloud condensation nuclei and thus a factor controlling cloud albedo. By 2060 in the southern hemisphere reduction in total column stratospheric ozone from recent levels could reach 2 to 5% in the tropics, 10% at mid latitudes, and over 20% at 60 deg C. S. In this same time frame increases in ground-level effective UV-B radiation could reach 5%, 26% and 66%, at low, mid, and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere. Changes in

  15. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  16. Coping with global environmental change -- role of science and democracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, M G

    The world's population increased form about 3 billion in 1960 to 4 billion in 1974, to 5 billion in 1987, and it is projected to grow to 6 billion by 1991 and to 8 billion by 1992. Finite, nonrenewable resources have to satisfy the increased need for sustenance of this population excess in a sustainable economic development mold. Human activity has upset natural processes with negative environmental effects: Minamata disease in Japan caused by heavy metal pollution, global deforestation, and acid rain. The 1972 Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm dealt with industrial pollution. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) was established subsequently. The theory of global warming caused by emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, and halogens as predicted by a Swedish scientist decades ago is accumulating a body of evidence. The International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions attempt to explore the Earth's physical, chemical, and biological processes to predict global environmental changes. Success mandates data availability. Paleoclimatic evidence indicates previous cataclysms caused by climate change, thus agriculture could be affected massively by global warming. Improved scientific analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and crop simulation models for major agricultural areas are needed. The North-South dialogue in UN forums has been acrimonious without much success, although international cooperation has been fruitful with the adoption of the Montreal Protocol on phasing out ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons. Such cooperation is needed on energy consumption and sources. PMID:12285904

  17. The Effects of Globalization on Lifestyle Changes in Rural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sojasi Qeidari

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has different effects on human life, which are more noticeable in rural areas than in cities. Thus, the present article aims to study the effects of globalization on lifestyle in rural areas. The methodology in this research is descriptive-analytical; and to collect data in the theoretical section of the study the library method has been used and in the field study questionnaires have been employed. In the present study, the residents of Roshanabad in Gorgan, composed of 24 villages, are included; using Cochran sampling method, 265 families were selected as sample. The results of the study show that the effects of globalization can be detected in all aspects and indexes of lifestyle, and according to participants in the study, some changes are occurring in lifestyle in the rural society. The regression testing indicated a Beta coefficient of 0.328 for most changes happening in lifestyle as a result of globalization. It can be said that since Iranian villages are experiencing a transition from tradition to modernity or even postmodernity, different aspects of lifestyle are somehow mingled; young people in rural areas show a tendency toward urban lifestyle while older people prefer local rural lifestyle.

  18. Science requirements for a global change technology architecture trade study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suttles, John T.; Harrison, Edwin F.; Gibson, Gary G.; Campbell, Thomas G.

    1991-01-01

    Science requirements for a global change technology initiative (GCTI) Architecture Trade Study were established by reviewing and synthesizing results from recent studies. A scientific rationale was adopted and used to identify a comprehensive set of measureables and their priorities. Spatial and temporal requirements for a number of measurement parameters were evaluated based on results from several working group studies. Science requirements were defined using these study results in conjunction with the guidelines for investigating global changes over a time scale of decades to centuries. Requirements are given separately for global studies and regional process studies. For global studies, temporal requirements are for sampling every 1 to 12 hours for atmospheric and radiation parameters and 1 day or more for most earth surface measurements. Therefore, the atmospheric measureables provide the most critical drivers for temporal sampling. Spatial sampling requirements vary from 1 km for land and ocean surface characteristics to 50 km for some atmospheric parameters. Thus, the land and ocean surface parameters have the more significant spatial variations and provide the most challenging spatial sampling requirements.

  19. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  20. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world. PMID:17107430

  1. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  2. Global Environments through the Quaternary – Exploring Environmental Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josie Rose Mills

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Born from a series of volumes titled Environmental Change, first printed in 1976, this book is the second edition of a revised history of the global environment published in 2013. It is the collaborative work of David Anderson, Andrew Goudie, and Adrian Parker, all experts in the field of geography, with Parker also having a background in anthropology. Global Environments through the Quaternary provides a general scientific guide to interpreting environmental change. It is aimed at a wide audience and has a full glossary of less well known terms for added clarity. It would be a good accompaniment to a geoarchaeology course or for those interested in the history of environmental fluctuation, with its particular strengths lying in the concise and accessible presentation of scientific data. This enables it to work well as a reference guide that can be used alongside more in-depth research as it provides a key knowledge base with which to formulate personal theories.

  3. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  4. Global DNA methylation changes in Cucurbitaceae inter-species grafting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelia Avramidou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Grafting has been used to improve yield, fruit quality and disease resistance in a range of tree and vegetable species. The molecular mechanisms underpinning grafting responses have only recently started to be delineated. One of those mechanisms involves long distance transfer of genetic material from rootstock to scion alluding to an epigenetic component to the grafting process. In the research presented herein we extended published work on heritable changes in the DNA methylation pattern of Solanaceae scion genomes, in Cucurbitaceae inter-species grafting. Specifically, we examined global DNA methylation changes in scions of cucumber, melon and watermelon heterografted onto pumpkin rootstocks using MSAP analysis. We observed a significant increase of global DNA methylation in cucumber and melon scions pointing to an epigenetic effect in Cucurbitaceae heterografting. Exploitation of differential epigenetic marking in different rootstock-scion combinations could lead to development of epi-molecular markers for generation and selection of superior quality grafted vegetables.

  5. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  6. Sulfur dioxide initiates global climate change in four ways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change, prior to the 20th century, appears to have been initiated primarily by major changes in volcanic activity. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is the most voluminous chemically active gas emitted by volcanoes and is readily oxidized to sulfuric acid normally within weeks. But trace amounts of SO2 exert significant influence on climate. All major historic volcanic eruptions have formed sulfuric acid aerosols in the lower stratosphere that cooled the earth's surface ∼ 0.5 oC for typically three years. While such events are currently happening once every 80 years, there are times in geologic history when they occurred every few to a dozen years. These were times when the earth was cooled incrementally into major ice ages. There have also been two dozen times during the past 46,000 years when major volcanic eruptions occurred every year or two or even several times per year for decades. Each of these times was contemporaneous with very rapid global warming. Large volumes of SO2 erupted frequently appear to overdrive the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere resulting in very rapid warming. Such warming and associated acid rain becomes extreme when millions of cubic kilometers of basalt are erupted in much less than one million years. These are the times of the greatest mass extinctions. When major volcanic eruptions do not occur for decades to hundreds of years, the atmosphere can oxidize all pollutants, leading to a very thin atmosphere, global cooling and decadal drought. Prior to the 20th century, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) followed increases in temperature initiated by changes in SO2. By 1962, man burning fossil fuels was adding SO2 to the atmosphere at a rate equivalent to one 'large' volcanic eruption each 1.7 years. Global temperatures increased slowly from 1890 to 1950 as anthropogenic sulfur increased slowly. Global temperatures increased more rapidly after 1950 as the rate of anthropogenic sulfur emissions increased. By 1980

  7. Plant responses to soil heterogeneity and global environmental change

    OpenAIRE

    García-Palacios, Pablo; Maestre, Fernando T.; Bardgett, Richard D.; de Kroon, Hans

    2012-01-01

    Recent evidence suggests that soil nutrient heterogeneity, a ubiquitous feature of terrestrial ecosystems, modulates plant responses to ongoing global change (GC). However, we know little about the overall trends of such responses, the GC drivers involved, and the plant attributes affected.We synthesized literature to answer the question: Does soil heterogeneity significantly affect plant responses to main GC drivers, such as elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2), nitrogen (...

  8. Ecotourism and Climates changes: the ecolodge contribution in global warming mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Lukman Hakim; Nobukazu Nakagoshi

    2014-01-01

    Global attention to the global warming reduction has invite numerous strategy implemented with the objectives is mitigating greenhouse gasses emission which threats to the future of living in biosphere. Essentially, absorbing CO2 from atmosphere and sequestering in terrestrial ecosystem is one of the significant strategy. While in developing countries it is become essential, support for forest conservation, afforestation and effort to increase te...

  9. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  10. The effects of global change upon United States air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gonzalez-Abraham

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5 in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s and future (2050s biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN. For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002 and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature

  11. Changes in the Essential Oil Components during the Development of Fennel Plants from Somatic Embryoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Y; Ogawa, K; Fukui, H; Tabata, M

    1987-02-01

    Quantitative and qualitative changes of essential oils during the development of clonal plants of fennel propagated through somatic embryogenesis were investigated. Although no essential oil could be detected either in cultured cells or in somatic embryoids, monoter-penes such as alpha-phellandrene and alpha-pinene were found in radical leaves of regenerated plantlets cultured on a hormone-free agar medium. The regenerated plants cultivated in the field for about one month accumulated phenylpropanoids such as estragole, anethole, and fenchone in addition to the two monoterpenes described above in radical leaves. Rich accumulations of phenylpropanoids and monoterpenes were observed in the fruits; especially the contents of estragole and anethole were much higher than in radical leaves. PMID:17268973

  12. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  13. Engaging Undergraduates in Methods of Communicating Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, C.; Colgan, M. W.; Humphreys, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Global Climate Change has become a politically contentious issue in large part because of the failure of scientists to effectively communicate this complex subject to the general public. In a Global Change class, offered within a science department and therefore focused primarily on the underlying science, we have incorporated a citizen science module into the course to raise awareness among future scientists to the importance of communicating information to a broad and diverse audience. The citizen science component of this course focuses on how the predicted climate changes will alter the ecologic and economic landscape of the southeastern region. Helping potential scientists to learn to effectively communicate with the general public is particularly poignant for this predominate southern student body. A Pew Research Center for the People and the Press study found that less than 50% of Southerners surveyed felt that global warming is a very serious problem and over 30% of Southerners did not believe that there was any credible evidence that the Earth is warming. This interdisciplinary and topical nature of the course attracts student from a variety of disciplines, which provides the class with a cross section of students not typically found in most geology classes. This mixture provides a diversity of skills and interest that leads to success of the Citizen Science component. This learning approach was adapted from an education module developed through the Earth System Science Education Alliance and a newly developed component to that program on citizen science. Student teams developed several citizen science-related public service announcements concerning projected global change effects on Charleston and the South Carolina area. The scenario concerned the development of an information campaign for the City of Charleston, culminating with the student presentations on their findings to City officials. Through this real-life process, the students developed new

  14. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO2, CH4 and N2O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO2 is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH4 and N2O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO2, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH4 and N2O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO2 decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH4 would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N2O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  15. Including Cities in Projections of Global Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, M.; Best, M.; Betts, R.

    2010-12-01

    The impact of land use change through urbanisation has long been recognised as an important driver of localised climate change, resulting from the thermal and aerodynamic properties of the built environment that impact heat, moisture and momentum exchange at the atmosphere-surface interface. Urban areas contain a majority of the global population, and account for approximately 70% of primary energy demand. Therefore urban areas are focal points of vulnerability and exposure to climate change, but also potentially powerful focal points for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Urban areas occupy only a tiny fraction of the available land surface of the globe, and therefore have generally been ignored in the context of global climate change simulation. Rapid advances in recent decades have lead to the development of numerical urban models suitable for coupling to weather prediction and climate models. While the urban micro-climate and greenhouse gas induced climate change operate over very different space and time-scales we should not assume that their evolution will be independent. In this paper we demonstrate the use of an urban land surface exchange scheme nested in Hadley Centre climate models contributing to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC. This has been used to quantify the development of urban heat islands in response to both radiatively forced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions, and local forcing from anthropogenic heat release associated with energy use within the urban environment. Urban citizens will be exposed to the cumulative impacts of urbanisation and climate change trends through the 21st Century, and here we demonstrate that these would be much greater than climate change alone. We also find that those areas of the world expected to undergo large urbanisation over the 21st Century are within climate zones that are among those most sensitive to the nocturnal urban heat island effect.

  16. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  17. Changes in tropospheric and stratospheric global temperatures, 1958-1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a network of 63 radiosonde stations distributed fairly evenly around the world, the global tropospheric temperature in 1988 was the maximum observed since the beginning of the record in 1958, 0.02 C warmer than 1983, 0.06 C warmer than 1987, and about 0.16 C warmer than 1980 and 1981. The global tropospheric temperature is indicated to have increased by a significant 0.2 C between 1958-72 and 1974-88, but with most of the warming in the Southern hemisphere and the north temperate zone even cooling slightly. Between these two intervals there was cooling in all climatic zones in the tropopause layer, the cooling of 0.2-0.3 C being significant in both hemispheres. The global low stratosphere cooled by more than 1.5 C following the 0.5 C warming occasioned by the El Chichon volcanic eruption, with most of the cooling in the Southern hemisphere and, in particular, in the south polar zone (Antarctic ozone hole phenomenon). Emphasized is the strong influence of El Nino on global tropospheric temperatures about two seasons later, and because of the El Nino in 1987, the need for caution in relating the record warmth of 1988 to any greenhouse effect. Discussed is the extent to which these tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes support the presumption that a greenhouse effect is already being observed. 35 refs.; 10 figs.; 2 tabs

  18. Changes in tropospheric and stratospheric global temperatures, 1958-1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on a network of 63 radiosonde stations distributed fairly evenly around the world, the global tropospheric temperature in 1988 was the maximum observed since the beginning of the record in 1958, 0.02 C warmer than 1983, 0.06 C warmer than 1987, and about 0.16 C warmer than 1980 and 1981. The global tropospheric temperature is indicated to have increased by a significant 0.2 C between 1958-72 and 1974-88, but with most of the warming in the Southern hemisphere and the north temperate zone even cooling slightly. Between these two intervals there was cooling in all climatic zones in the tropopause layer, the cooling of 0.2-0.3 C being significant in both hemispheres. The global low stratosphere cooled by more than 1.5 C following the 0.5 C warming occasioned by the El Chichon volcanic eruption, with most of the cooling in the Southern hemisphere and, in particular, in the south polar zone (Antarctic ozone hole phenomenon). Emphasized is the strong influence of El Nino on global tropospheric temperatures about two seasons later, and because of the El Nino in 1987, the need for caution in relating the record warmth of 1988 to any greenhouse effect. Discussed is the extent to which these tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes support the presumption that a greenhouse effect is already being observed

  19. The GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coldewey-Egbers

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We present the new GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record which has been created within the framework of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI. Total ozone column observations – based on the GOME-type Direct Fitting version 3 algorithm – from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY, and GOME-2 have been combined into one homogeneous time series, thereby taking advantage of the high inter-sensor consistency. The data record spans the 15-year period from March 1996 to June 2011 and it contains global monthly mean total ozone columns on a 1° × 1° grid. Geophysical ground-based validation using Brewer, Dobson, and UV-visible instruments has shown that the GTO-ECV level 3 data record is of the same high quality as the equivalent individual level 2 data products that constitute it. Both absolute agreement and long-term stability are excellent with respect to the ground-based data, for almost all latitudes apart from a few outliers which are mostly due to sampling differences between the level 2 and level 3 data. We conclude that the GTO-ECV data record is valuable for a variety of climate applications such as the long-term monitoring of the past evolution of the ozone layer, trend analysis and the evaluation of Chemistry–Climate Model simulations.

  20. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs.

  1. Teaching global and local environmental change through Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauri, Emanuela Paola; Rossi, Giovanni

    2013-04-01

    Human beings perceive the world primarily through their sense of sight. This can explain why the use of images is so important and common in educational materials, in particular for scientific subjects. The development of modern technologies for visualizing the scientific features of the Earth has provided new opportunities for communicating the increasing complexity of science both to the public and in school education. In particular, the use of Earth observation satellites for civil purposes, which started in the 70s, has opened new perspectives in the study of natural phenomena and human impact on the environment; this is particularly relevant for those processes developing on a long term period and on a global scale. Instruments for Remote Sensing increase the power of human sight, giving access to additional information about the physical world, which the human eye could not otherwise perceive. The possibility to observe from a remote perspective significant processes like climate change, ozone depletion, desertification, urban development, makes it possible for observers to better appreciate and experience the complexity of environment. Remote Sensing reveals the impact of human activities on ecosystems: this allows students to understand important concepts like global and local change in much more depth. This poster describes the role and effectiveness of Remote Sensing imagery in scientific education, and its importance towards a better global environmental awareness.

  2. Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

    2014-07-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research.

  3. A contemporary decennial global sample of changing agricultural field sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, E.; Roy, D. P.

    2011-12-01

    In the last several hundred years agriculture has caused significant human induced Land Cover Land Use Change (LCLUC) with dramatic cropland expansion and a marked increase in agricultural productivity. The size of agricultural fields is a fundamental description of rural landscapes and provides an insight into the drivers of rural LCLUC. Increasing field sizes cause a subsequent decrease in the number of fields and therefore decreased landscape spatial complexity with impacts on biodiversity, habitat, soil erosion, plant-pollinator interactions, diffusion of disease pathogens and pests, and loss or degradation in buffers to nutrient, herbicide and pesticide flows. In this study, globally distributed locations with significant contemporary field size change were selected guided by a global map of agricultural yield and literature review and were selected to be representative of different driving forces of field size change (associated with technological innovation, socio-economic conditions, government policy, historic patterns of land cover land use, and environmental setting). Seasonal Landsat data acquired on a decadal basis (for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) were used to extract field boundaries and the temporal changes in field size quantified and their causes discussed.

  4. Application of transition metal isotope tracers in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Jinming; Thomas F. Pedersen

    2005-01-01

    High-precision isotope composition determinations using multicollector, magnetic-sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) have recently revealed that some transition metal isotopes such as those of Mo, Fe, Cu, Zn etc. can be used as biogeochemical tracers in global change research.The Mo isotope system may be useful in paleoredox investigations indicating that δ 97/95Mo in seawater may co-vary with changes in the relative proportions of anoxic and oxic sedimentation in the ocean, and that this variation may be recorded in δ 97/95Mo of anoxic sediments. The Mo continental flux into the oceans and the global Mo isotope budget can be estimated fromδ 97/95MO values. The Fe isotope composition in seawater is an important issue because Fe plays a controlling role in biological productivity in the oceans and its abundance in seawater may have substantial effect on climate changes. Iron isotope fractionations could result from bio- and abio-processes and have about 0.1% variation (δ 56/54Fe), so Fe isotopes considered alone cannot be used to distinguish the products of abiotic and biotic Fe processing in geological records. Cu and Zn isotopes are also used as biogeochemical tracers, but the researches are relatively less. This review mainly focuses on the methods for preparation, purification and determination of new isotope tracer samples, and on isotope applications in marine environmental changes.

  5. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  6. Irrigation in a changing world: a global systems analysis perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doell, P.

    2003-04-01

    The global issues of water security and food security are closely linked. Sustainable plant production requires a sustained provisioning of water, either in the form of "green" or of "blue" water (as introduced by Malin Falkenmark in 1993). Green water is defined as the fraction of water that is evapotranspirated, i.e. the water supply for all non-irrigated vegetation. Blue water refers to the water flows in groundwater and surface water. It represents the water that can be withdrawn, e.g. for irrigation. In areas without enough green water in the soil to achieve satisfactory crop growth, crops can be irrigated with blue water. The distinction between green and blue water helps to understand the linkages between rainfall, soil, land productivity and water availability for irrigation and other human uses. Today, about 67% of the current global water withdrawals and about 87% of the consumptive water use (withdrawal minus return flow) is for irrigation purposes. Irrigated land comprises less than one-fifth of all cropped area but produces about two-fifth of the world's cereals. Due to the high and reliable productivity of irrigated land, an extension of irrigation appears to be an appropriate strategy to feed the world's growing population However, will there be enough water available for the necessary extension? To assess this question, both water availability and demand must be analyzed. At the global scale, such an assessment is supported by the global model of water resources and use model WaterGAP 2, which, with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees, computes both water resources and water use by irrigation, livestock, households, manufacturing and thermal power plants. WaterGAP is applied to derive scenarios that show the impact of climate change as well as demographic, economic and technological changes. The Global Irrigation Model of WaterGAP computes, for example, the impact of climate change on irrigation requirements on net irrigation requirements. This is

  7. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  8. Antarctic Pliocene Biotic and Environmental Change in a Global Context Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, P. G.; Whitehead, J.

    2005-12-01

    The Pliocene was globally an interval of dramatic climate change and often compared with the environment evolving through human-induced global change. Antarctic history needs to be integrated into global patterns. The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region of East Antarctica is a major source of data on Late Paleozoic-Recent changes in Antarctic biota and environment. This paper reviews what is known of 13 marine transgressions in the Late Neogene of the region and attempts to compare the Antarctic pattern with global patterns, such as those identified through global sequence stratigraphic analysis. Although temporal resolution in Antarctic sections is not always as good as for sections elsewhere, enough data exist to indicate that many events can be construed as part of global changes. It is expected that further correlation will be effected. During much of the Pliocene, there was less continental ice, reduced sea-ice cover, probably higher sea-level, penetration of marine conditions deep into the hinterland, and independent evidence to indicate that this was due to warmth. The Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone probably was much farther south than currently. There have been major changes in the marine fauna, and distribution of surviving species since the mid-Pliocene. Antarctic fish faunas underwent major changes during this interval with evolution of a major new Subfamily and diversification in at least two subfamilies. No palynological evidence of terrestrial vegetation has been recovered from the Prydz Bay - Prince Charles Mountain region. Analysis of origin and extinction data for two global planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphic zonations shows that the interval Late Miocene-Pliocene was an interval of enhanced extinction and evolution, consistent with an interval of more rapid and high amplitude fluctuating environments.

  9. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  10. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  11. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  12. The Effect of Tide on the Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Xuexiang; CHEN Zhen; CHEN Dianyou; Qiao Qiyuan

    2002-01-01

    The differential rotation between the solid and fluid spheres caused by tidal force could explain the 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the world's temperature. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the oceans, drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface and the warm water from the west to the east, where it cools or warms the atmosphere above, absorbs or releases CO2 to decrease or increase greenhouse effect and to make La Nina or El Nino occur in the global. The moon's declination and obliquity of the ecliptic affect the tidal intensity. The exchange of tidal energy and tide-generating force caused by the sun, moon and major planets makes the earth's layers rotate in different speeds. The differenti-al rotation between solid and fluid of the earth is the basic reason for El Nino and global climate change.

  13. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

    2011-10-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1 m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1 m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1 m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1 m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  14. Adjusting to global change through clonal growth and epigenetic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Dodd

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The earth is experiencing major changes in global and regional climates and changes are predicted to accelerate in the future. Many species will be under considerable pressure to evolve, to migrate, or be faced with extinction. Clonal plants would appear to be at a particular disadvantage due to their limited mobility and limited capacity for adaptation. However, they have outlived previous environmental shifts and clonal species have persisted for millenia. Clonal spread offers unique ecological advantages, such as resource sharing, risk sharing, and economies of scale among ramets within genotypes. We suggest that ecological attributes of clonal plants, in tandem with variation in gene regulation through epigenetic mechanisms that facilitate and optimize phenotype variation in response to environmental change may permit them to be well suited to projected conditions.

  15. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  16. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V

    2006-07-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  17. Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2005-05-01

    Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From

  18. Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate extremes have profound implications for urban infrastructure and human society, but studies of observed changes in climate extremes over the global urban areas are few, even though more than half of the global population now resides in urban areas. Here, using observed station data for 217 urban areas across the globe, we show that these urban areas have experienced significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the number of heat waves during the period 1973–2012, while the frequency of cold waves has declined. Almost half of the urban areas experienced significant increases in the number of extreme hot days, while almost 2/3 showed significant increases in the frequency of extreme hot nights. Extreme windy days declined substantially during the last four decades with statistically significant declines in about 60% in the urban areas. Significant increases (p-value <0.05) in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes and in annual maximum precipitation occurred at smaller fractions (17 and 10% respectively) of the total urban areas, with about half as many urban areas showing statistically significant downtrends as uptrends. Changes in temperature and wind extremes, estimated as the result of a 40 year linear trend, differed for urban and non-urban pairs, while changes in indices of extreme precipitation showed no clear differentiation for urban and selected non-urban stations. (letter)

  19. Implications for human health of global atmospheric changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The possible impacts of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and ultraviolet irradiation, acid precipitation, and resulting demographic changes are reviewed, along with the implications of global ecological changes on society and sustainable development. Some manifestations of global warming caused by the greenhouse effect could include more frequently extreme weather conditions, rises in sea level, disruption of ocean currents, and changes in composition and distribution of vegetation. Consequences of these manifestations on human health include an increase in the frequency of droughts and heat waves, migration of disease carrying vectors to other areas, submergence of coastal areas and disruption of water supplies, destruction of tropical species potentially useful for medicinal purposes, and impaired production of crops leading to food shortages. Consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion due to chlorofluorocarbon pollution are thought to be a direct result of increased exposure to ultraviolet light; these consequences include higher risks of non-melanoma skin cancer. The effects of acid precipitation are thought to be primarily ecological and indirect. 61 refs,

  20. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A. [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1995-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  1. E-Infrastructure and Data Management for Global Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, M. L.; Gurney, R. J.; Cesar, R.; Cossu, R.; Gemeinholzer, B.; Koike, T.; Mokrane, M.; Peters, D.; Nativi, S.; Samors, R.; Treloar, A.; Vilotte, J. P.; Visbeck, M.; Waldmann, H. C.

    2014-12-01

    The Belmont Forum, a coalition of science funding agencies from 15 countries, is supporting an 18-month effort to assess the state of international of e-infrastructures and data management so that global change data and information can be more easily and efficiently exchanged internationally and across domains. Ultimately, this project aims to address the Belmont "Challenge" to deliver knowledge needed for action to avoid and adapt to detrimental environmental change, including extreme hazardous events. This effort emerged from conclusions by the Belmont Forum that transformative approaches and innovative technologies are needed for heterogeneous data/information to be integrated and made interoperable for researchers in disparate fields, and for myriad uses across international, institutional, disciplinary, spatial and temporal boundaries. The project will deliver a Community Strategy and Implementation Plan to prioritize international funding opportunities and long-term policy recommendations on how the Belmont Forum can implement a more coordinated, holistic, and sustainable approach to funding and supporting global change research. The Plan is expected to serve as the foundation of future Belmont Forum funding calls for proposals in support of research science goals as well as to establish long term e-infrastructure. More than 120 scientists, technologists, legal experts, social scientists, and other experts are participating in six Work Packages to develop the Plan by spring, 2015, under the broad rubrics of Architecture/Interoperability and Governance: Data Integration for Multidisciplinary Research; Improved Interface between Computation & Data Infrastructures; Harmonization of Global Data Infrastructure; Data Sharing; Open Data; and Capacity Building. Recommendations could lead to a more coordinated approach to policies, procedures and funding mechanisms to support e-infrastructures in a more sustainable way.

  2. Global Climate Change and China's Green Development

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hu Angang

    2011-01-01

    For China, green industrial revolution induced by global climate change poses not only the greatest challenge, but also the greatest opportunity. In the perspective of China's basic national conditions, and especially its natural conditions, China's green development is the inevitable path of choice for the realization of sustainable development and scientific development. The essence of China's modernization 2050 is green modernization, taking the three-step strategy towards China's own green development and energy conservation and emission reduction. In combination with the 12th Five Year Plan, its innovative positioning is "green development plan".

  3. Collaborative decision process support tools from global change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, D.G. [Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO (United States). Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station; Faber, B.G. [CIESIN/TERRA, Fort Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Global change research attempts to develop a predictive understanding of ecosystems, especially their response to a host of anthropogenic stressors. In particular, the forest Service component of this program is concerned with how forest and related ecosystems should be managed in view of this understanding. Collaboration among scientists, managers and resource stakeholders is a key requirement for achieving improved management. This paper discusses a set of tools currently under development, that are capable of assisting people in conducting collaborative decision processes. It reviews recent advances in collaborative GIS techniques, describes an application of collaborative GIS with the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest, and discusses future development efforts.

  4. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO2-induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO2-induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  5. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  6. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  7. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  8. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  9. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N2) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N2O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO2 emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

  10. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10–90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the

  11. Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities

  12. Our changing planet: The FY 1994 US Global Change Research Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-09-01

    The approach of the US Global Change Research Program recognizes the profound economic and social implications of responding to global envirorunental changes and advances US leadership on this issue. The report outlines a careful blend of ground- and space-based efforts in research, data gathering, and modeling activities, as well as economic research, with both near- and long-term scientific and public policy benefits. In FY 1994, the Program will add an explicit focus on assessment, seeking to improve our understanding of the state of scientific knowledge and the implications of that knowledge for national and international policymaking activities.

  13. An essay on global carbon budget approaches-Are we ready to deal with global climate changes now?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian YE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,a simple analysis is conducted for the purpose of addressing a simple but fundamental question,i.e.,does the world have the capability in sciences,economics and governance to deal with the global climate change today and what should we do? By pointing out that although understanding of multidimensionality and nonlinearity of global changes from both natural and social sciences has been advanced significantly,it is extremely difficult,if not impossible,to find a single solution for global climate change because of the multi-dimensionality of social components and the nonlinearity of natural elements inherent in the global climate systems.

  14. Τhe attitude of nurses on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavrianopoulos Τ.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change has had and will have considerable effects on human health.Νursing must become more centrally involved in mitigation, reducing the acidity and response efforts of the problem. Aim The presentation based on international literature review, of a framework for nursing action on climate change. Material and Methods Method was used is to search electronic databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL for a review of international literature to 2009 and became selection of books, articles and studies from libraries. Results Given the climate change, developed a working framework for serious professional thinking and action on community nursing. Like many other professions, so the nursing world should now raise the question of how it could contribute, and that could perhaps be better focused individual and collective efforts. The four main components of the framework for action are: the usual tactics, to maximize the skills, the right of priority sites and public grants. Conclusions The nursing should be linked closely with other professions and sectors in order to maximize national and international efforts to mitigate and combat climate change. The profession's response to climate change should be as varied and as the sector itself, and from all countries.

  15. The organization of global negotiations: constructing the climate change regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Depledge, Joanna

    2005-02-15

    The basic assumption of this book is that the organization of a negotiation process matters. The global negotiations on climate change involve over 180 countries and innumerable observers and other participants, addressing enormously complex and economically vital issues with conflicting agendas. For the UN to create an effective and well-supported international regime has required enormous and very skilful organization: factors such as the role of the Chair, the choice of negotiating arenas, the rules for the conduct of business and the approach of negotiating texts are usually taken for granted, and rarely attract attention until something goes wrong. This book explores how the negotiations were organized to produce the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Change Convention and the subsequent Bonn Agreements and Marrakesh Accords. The author draws out the lessons and implications for other intricate and far-reaching negotiations, not all of which have succeeded so far, such as the WTO trade negotiations at Seattle and Cancun. (Author)

  16. The role of natural gas hydrates in global changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The main features of gas hydrates which produce global changes are: structure and composition of hydrates, heat of the phase transition and of accumulation and decomposition (about 420 kJ kg-1), the change of the water specific volume (26-32%) under its transition to the hydrate state, and the electric impulse formation between the two phases during the phase transitions of systems. One volume of water contains 70-200 volumes of gas in hydrate state. Gas pressure in the crystal lattice of hydrate is hundreds, even thousands MPa. The hydrate formation zone is associated with frigid areas of Earth sedimentary rocks; on the land, near the polar regions, in the sea, at any latitude at depths >200-500 m. Methane hydrate resources make up about 104 Gt, 99% of them under the sea. The explored resources are 500 Gt. Hydrate methane is, undoubtedly, the energy potential of mankind for the next century, but the rates of the free methane outflow into the atmosphere and their influence on the global climate, ecology, geography, etc. need to be taken into account. The current amount of methane in the atmosphere is about 4.8 Gt. Thus, the average Earth surface temperature is increased by 1.3 K. The annual increase of methane in the atmosphere is 1%. Natural gas hydrates, their spreading and features may cause blowouts of free methane to the atmosphere, much greater than the current biochemical and technogenic sources. Methane may flow from the top and from the bottom of the layer as well under changing thermodynamic conditions, such as decreasing pressure, increase of the geothermal gradient, neotectonic shifts, changing of the hydrate deposits, electric potential. The free methane provides for an increase of CO2, H2O, O3 concentration. The heating effect of methane can be equal to or exceed that of CO2

  17. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels.

  18. Global-Change research in Norway. National inventory of Global Change research in Norway i 2011; Global Change-forskning i Norge. En kartlegging av norsk Global change-forskning i 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    From the preface: The Norwegian Global Change (GC) Committee is appointed by the Research Council and works to strengthen the association of Norwegian researchers and research to the international GC programs and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). As part of this effort, the Committee wanted a survey of Norwegian research activities linked to these programs. CICERO was engaged to carry out survey work in dialogue with the Research and GC Committee. The results of the survey are presented in this report. The GC programs are: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International geosphere-biosphere program (IGBP), International program of biodiversity science (DIVERSITAS), International Human Dimension Programme Wed Global Environmental Change (IHDP). In addition to IIASA. The results of the survey will be, and is, used as a basis for further activities of the Committee in terms of incentives that can increase the internationalization of Norwegian research. Furthermore, it help to ensure good coupling to these programs in their transition to a common platform in the international Future Earth Initiative (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth).(eb)

  19. Global Change and Helminth Infections in Grazing Ruminants in Europe: Impacts, Trends and Sustainable Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hubertus Hertzberg

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Infections with parasitic helminths (nematodes and trematodes represent a significant economic and welfare burden to the global ruminant livestock industry. The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic resistance means that current control programmes are costly and unsustainable in the long term. Recent changes in the epidemiology, seasonality and geographic distribution of helminth infections have been attributed to climate change. However, other changes in environment (e.g., land use and in livestock farming, such as intensification and altered management practices, will also have an impact on helminth infections. Sustainable control of helminth infections in a changing world requires detailed knowledge of these interactions. In particular, there is a need to devise new, sustainable strategies for the effective control of ruminant helminthoses in the face of global change. In this paper, we consider the impact of helminth infections in grazing ruminants, taking a European perspective, and identify scientific and applied priorities to mitigate these impacts. These include the development and deployment of efficient, high-throughput diagnostic tests to support targeted intervention, modelling of geographic and seasonal trends in infection, more thorough economic data and analysis of the impact of helminth infections and greater translation and involvement of end-users in devising and disseminating best practices. Complex changes in helminth epidemiology will require innovative solutions. By developing and using new technologies and models, the use of anthelmintics can be optimised to limit the development and spread of drug resistance and to reduce the overall economic impact of helminth infections. This will be essential to the continued productivity and profitability of livestock farming in Europe and its contribution to regional and global food security.

  20. The gender perspective in climate change and global health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgitta Evengård

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Population health is a primary goal of sustainable development. United Nations international conferences like the Beijing Platform for Action have highlighted the key role of women in ensuring sustainable development. In the context of climate change, women are affected the most while they display knowledge and skills to orient themselves toward climate adaptation activities within their societies. Objective: To investigate how the gender perspective is addressed as an issue in research and policy-making concerning climate change and global health. Methods: A broad literature search was undertaken using the databases Pubmed and Web of Science to explore the terms ‘climate change,’ ‘health,’ ‘gender,’ and ‘policy.’ Climate change and health-related policy documents of the World Health Organization (WHO and National Communications and National Adaptation Programs of Action reports submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change of selected countries were studied. Assessment guidelines to review these reports were developed from this study's viewpoint. Results: The database search results showed almost no articles when the four terms were searched together. The WHO documents lacked a gender perspective in their approach and future recommendations on climate policies. The reviewed UN reports were also neutral to gender perspective except one of the studied documents. Conclusion: Despite recognizing the differential effects of climate change on health of women and men as a consequence of complex social contexts and adaptive capacities, the study finds gender to be an underrepresented or non-existing variable both in research and studied policy documents in the field of climate change and health.

  1. Understand Changes of the Tropical Tropopause Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, P.; Paynter, D.; Ming, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.

    2014-12-01

    Previous model studies has predicted a warmer and higher tropical tropopause as greenhouse gases increases, but the mechanisms of such changes have not been investigated fully. Here we examine changes the tropical tropopause in two idealized experiments simulated by GFDL global climate model AM3: (1) 4xCO2 with fixed sea surface temperature; and (2) an uniform 4K increase of the sea surface temperature with fixed greenhouse gases concentrations. The tropical tropopause becomes warmer in both experiments, but a higher tropopause is only seen in the second case. By examining the heat budget of the tropical tropoapuse, we diagnose the physical processes that are responsible for these changes and quantify their contributions. For the 4xCO2 experiment, the direct radiative effect of CO2 increase contributes the most. For the SST warming experiment, the radiative effect of a warmer troposphere and convection-related processes lead to a warming at 100 hPa, while a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation and associated changes in ozone lead to a cooling at 60 hPa. This warming-cooling pattern results in a significant upward shift of the tropopause.

  2. Detection and Attribution of Global Mean Thermosteric Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slangen, A.; Church, J. A.; Zhang, X.; Monselesan, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are driven by a range of natural and anthropogenic forcings. To better understand the response of global mean thermosteric sea-level change to these forcings, we compare three observational datasets to experiments of 28 climate models with up to five different forcing scenarios for 1957-2005. We use the pre-industrial control runs to determine the internal climate variability. Our analysis shows that anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing is required to explain the magnitude of the observed changes, while natural forcing drives most of the externally-forced decadal variability. The experiments that include anthropogenic and natural forcings capture the observed increased trend towards the end of the 20th century. The observed changes can be best explained by scaling the natural-only experiment by 0.70±0.30 and the anthropogenic-only experiment (including opposing forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols) by 1.08±0.13 (+/-2σ).

  3. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  4. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability".

  5. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability". PMID:26030377

  6. Learning English as an L2 in the Global Context: Changing English, Changing Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Chit Cheung Matthew

    2013-01-01

    As the English language has become a global lingua franca today, it is not surprising that changes in attitudes and perceptions towards learning English in the international context have taken place at the same time. In this paper, I critically examine the notion of "integrative motivation" in the literature of second language (L2)…

  7. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  8. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  9. Policy framework for the management of global climate change issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riedel, D. [Health Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environmental Health Directorate

    2001-03-01

    Pollution has resulted in a variety of environmental problems which give rise to concerns about the ecosystem and human health. There is a need for collaboration at many levels to address the problems associated with acid rain, smog, ozone-destroying chemicals and the long-range transport of toxic substances. The author noted that the vulnerability of ecosystems and of human population groups must be assessed along with the full range of implications (including costs and benefits) of mitigation and adaptation measures. Health implications are generally difficult to assess because a wide range of information, skills, and databases are required. In addition, there are no standard methods for undertaking the assessment, but the World Health Organization is currently developing guidelines for assessing climate change health impacts. Climate change is determined by natural mechanisms that affect the distribution and intensity of environmental health change risk factors, including insects and chemicals. The Canadian government has drafted a framework entitled The Policy Framework for Managing Global Climate Change Issues. It was developed by external experts and is based on the U.S. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management. The six interactive stages of the framework are to: (1) define the health, socioeconomic, technical and political context and problems and assess the relevance to affected stakeholders, (2) characterize hazards and possible health impacts from environmental change, (3) develop mitigation options based on precautionary and equity principles, (4) assess risk predictions and uncertainties, socioeconomic inputs and public inputs, (5) implement national and international risk management strategies for mitigation and adaptation, and (6) evaluate the progress of actions by monitoring changes in risk through a broad range of indicators of heath. It was also noted that policies and strategies should be revised as needed.

  10. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  11. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  12. Global compilation of coastline change at river mouths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadland, Tore; Helland-Hansen, William

    2016-04-01

    We are using Google Earth Engine to analyze Landsat images to create a global compilation of coastline change at river mouths in order to develop scaling relationships between catchment properties and shoreline behaviour. Our main motivation for doing this is to better understand the rates at which shallowing upward successions of deltaic successions are formed. We are also interested in getting an insight into the impact of climate change and human activity on modern shorelines. Google Earth Engine is a platform that offers simple selection of relevant data from an extensive catalog of geospatial data and the tools to analyse it efficiently. We have used Google Earth Engine to select and analyze temporally and geographically bounded sets of Landsat images covering modern deltas included in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database. The part of the shoreline sampled for each delta has been manually defined. The areas depicted in these image sets have been classified as land or water by thresholding a calibrated Modified Normalized Water Index. By representing land and water as 1.0 and 0 respectively and averaging image sets of sufficient size we have generated rasters quantifying the probability of an area being classified as land. The calculated probabilities reflect variation in the shoreline position; in particular, it minimizes the impact of short term-variations produced by tides. The net change in the land area of deltas can be estimated by comparing how the probability changes between image sets spanning different time periods. We have estimated the land area change that occurred from 2000 to 2014 at more than 130 deltas with catchment areas ranging from 470 to 6300000 sqkm. Log-log plots of the land area change of these deltas against their respective catchment properties in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database indicate that the rate of land area change correlates with catchment size and discharge. Useful interpretation of the data requires that we

  13. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, A.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  14. European network infrastructures of observatories for terrestrial Global Change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H.; Lehning, M.

    2009-04-01

    The earth's climate is significantly changing (e.g. IPCC, 2007) and thus directly affecting the terrestrial systems. The number and intensity hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are continually increasing, resulting in major economical and social impacts. Furthermore, the land cover in Europe has been modified fundamentally by conversions for agriculture, forest and for other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Additionally, water resources are more than ever used for human development, especially as a key resource for agricultural and industrial activities. As a special case, the mountains of the world are of significant importance in terms of water resources supply, biodiversity, economy, agriculture, traffic and recreation but particularly vulnerable to environmental change. The Alps are unique because of the pronounced small scale variability they contain, the high population density they support and their central position in Europe. The Alps build a single coherent physical and natural environment, artificially cut by national borders. The scientific community and governmental bodies have responded to these environmental changes by performing dedicated experiments and by establishing environmental research networks to monitor, analyse and predict the impact of Global Change on different terrestrial systems of the Earths' environment. Several European network infrastructures for terrestrial Global Change research are presently immerging or upgrading, such as ICOS, ANAEE, LifeWatch or LTER-Europe. However, the strongest existing networks are still operating on a regional or national level and the historical growth of such networks resulted in a very heterogeneous landscape of observation networks. We propose therefore the establishment of two complementary networks: The NetwOrk of Hydrological observAtories, NOHA. NOHA aims to promote the sustainable management of water resources in Europe, to support the prediction of

  15. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred A. Johnson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge. The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1 efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2 develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of

  16. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell; McMahon, Gerard; Raye Nilius,; Mike Bryant,; Dave Case,; Martin, Julien; Wood, Nathan J.; Laura Taylor,

    2015-01-01

    National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested

  17. Global change accelerates carbon assimilation by a wetland ecosystem engineer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S.; Hager, Rachel N.; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Mozdzer, Thomas J.

    2015-11-01

    The primary productivity of coastal wetlands is changing dramatically in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and invasions by novel species, potentially altering their ecosystem services and resilience to sea level rise. In order to determine how these interacting global change factors will affect coastal wetland productivity, we quantified growing-season carbon assimilation (≈gross primary productivity, or GPP) and carbon retained in living plant biomass (≈net primary productivity, or NPP) of North American mid-Atlantic saltmarshes invaded by Phragmites australis (common reed) under four treatment conditions: two levels of CO2 (ambient and +300 ppm) crossed with two levels of N (0 and 25 g N added m-2 yr-1). For GPP, we combined descriptions of canopy structure and leaf-level photosynthesis in a simulation model, using empirical data from an open-top chamber field study. Under ambient CO2 and low N loading (i.e., the Control), we determined GPP to be 1.66 ± 0.05 kg C m-2 yr-1 at a typical Phragmites stand density. Individually, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 44 and 60%, respectively. Changes under N enrichment came largely from stimulation to carbon assimilation early and late in the growing season, while changes from CO2 came from stimulation during the early and mid-growing season. In combination, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 95% over the Control, yielding 3.24 ± 0.08 kg C m-2 yr-1. We used biomass data to calculate NPP, and determined that it represented 44%-60% of GPP, with global change conditions decreasing carbon retention compared to the Control. Our results indicate that Phragmites invasions in eutrophied saltmarshes are driven, in part, by extended phenology yielding 3.1× greater NPP than native marsh. Further, we can expect elevated CO2 to amplify Phragmites productivity throughout the growing season, with potential implications including accelerated spread

  18. Time for a reality check on global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Keefe, W.F.

    1995-12-31

    Right now no one knows enough about global warming to advocate with certainty the kinds of actions that could jeopardize our economic well being -- and the economic aspirations of developing countries. That doesn`t mean no action, which is usually described perjoratively and erroneously as business as usual. It does mean actions must be based on facts, not misperceptions and myths. It does mean a mindset that reexamines, rethinks and changes course based on new knowledge. In short, I am advocating a reality check on the process based on the political, scientific and economic realities. Each of these realities has an important role in determining how we respond to the global warming threat. Our goal should be to identify actions that do the least damage to material well-being and that preserve the path to a better way of life, especially for the developing nations. What we have instead is a process driven by political gamesmanship that will devolve into beggar the neighbor policies reminiscent of 18th century mercantilism.

  19. B\\"o\\"ogg Bang drives global climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Brennwald, M S; Kipfer, R

    2011-01-01

    The B\\"o\\"ogg is a large model of a snowman, constructed of inflammable materials and filled with explosives. During the traditional festival of Sechsel\\"auten, which takes place each spring in Zurich, Switzerland, the B\\"o\\"ogg is placed atop a wooden pyre, which is set alight. According to popular legend, the time that elapses until the B\\"o\\"ogg's head explodes (the "head-bang" time) is said to give a rough forecast of local weather conditions prevailing during the following summer. However, recent research has questioned the validity of this prediction. To study the B\\"o\\"ogg's predictive powers, we analyzed the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time record from 1965-2010 within the context of global climate change. Our analysis shows that the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time is a good predictor not of short-term local weather, as might be expected from the legend, but of the behavior of the entire global climate system.

  20. Global climate change: A U.S. business community's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientists from all over the world are currently attempting to evaluate the impact of both manmade and natural phenomena on climate change, including such issues as the role of oceans as sinks in absorbing CO2, the role of sunspots, the absorptive capacity of different tree species, the impact of nitrous oxide and non- CO2 greenhouse gases, the length of time carbon remains in the atmosphere, the impact of ocean currents and innumerable other issues. Understanding these phenomena, and their interaction will be critical to properly addressing the issue which has tremendous importance for both the US and the world economic future development. The climate change issue has the potential to become the vehicle which will link developing countries to the rest of the world, since, embodies in the global climate debate are several of the social issues that the U.N. has attempted to address over the last two decades: hunger, overpopulation, environment, technology, and development. The climate change issue has the potential to test new international institutions, relationships between developed and developing counties and between traditional trading partners

  1. Buffer Capacity, Ecosystem Feedbacks, and Seawater Chemistry under Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J. Toonen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification (OA results in reduced seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag, but also reduced seawater buffer capacity. As buffer capacity decreases, diel variation in seawater chemistry increases. However, a variety of ecosystem feedbacks can modulate changes in both average seawater chemistry and diel seawater chemistry variation. Here we model these effects for a coastal, reef flat ecosystem. We show that an increase in offshore pCO2 and temperature (to 900 µatm and + 3 °C can increase diel pH variation by as much as a factor of 2.5 and can increase diel pCO2 variation by a factor of 4.6, depending on ecosystem feedbacks and seawater residence time. Importantly, these effects are different between day and night. With increasing seawater residence time and increasing feedback intensity, daytime seawater chemistry becomes more similar to present-day conditions while nighttime seawater chemistry becomes less similar to present-day conditions. Recent studies suggest that carbonate chemistry variation itself, independent of the average chemistry conditions, can have important effects on marine organisms and ecosystem processes. Better constraining ecosystem feedbacks under global change will improve projections of coastal water chemistry, but this study shows the importance of considering changes in both average carbonate chemistry and diel chemistry variation for organisms and ecosystems.

  2. Addressing global change challenges for Central Asian socio-ecosystems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiaguo QI; Temirbek S.BOBUSHEV; Rashid KULMATOV; Pavel GROISMAN; Garik GUTMAN

    2012-01-01

    Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions on the planet earth to global climate change,depending on very fragile natural resources.The Soviet legacy has left the five countries (Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan) with a highly integrated system but they are facing great challenges with tensions that hinder regional coordination of food and water resources.With increasing climate variability and warming trend in the region,food and water security issues become even more crucial now and,if not addressed properly,could affect the regional stability.The long-term drivers of these two most critical elements,food and water,are climate change; the immediate and probably more drastic factors affecting the food and water security are land uses driven by institutional change and economic incentives.As a feedback,changes in land use and land cover have directly implications on water uses,food production,and lifestyles of the rural community in the region.Regional and international efforts have been made to holistically understand the cause,extent,rate and societal implications of land use changes in the region.Much of these have been understood,or under investigation by various projects,but solutions or research effort to develop solutions,to these urgent regional issues are lacking.This article,serves as an introduction to the special issue,provides a brief overview of the challenges facing the Central Asian countries and various international efforts in place that resulted in the publications of this special issue.

  3. Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyhälä, Aili; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Lehvävirta, Hertta; Byg, Anja; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Salpeteur, Matthieu; Thornton, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC) is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC— particularly in small-scale societies—and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management) based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We reviewed 126 articles found in peer-reviewed journals (between 1998 and 2014) that address local perceptions of GEC. We used three particular lenses of analysis that are known to influence local perceptions, namely (i) cognition, (ii) culture and knowledge, and (iii) possibilities for adaptation.We present our findings on the geographical distribution of the current research, the most common changes reported, perceived drivers and impacts of change, and local explanations and evaluations of change and impacts. Overall, we found the studies to be geographically biased, lacking methodological reporting, mostly theory based with little primary data, and lacking of indepth analysis of the psychological and ontological influences in perception and implications for adaptation. We provide recommendations for future GEC research and propose the development of a “meta-language” around adaptation, perception, and mediation to encourage a greater appreciation and understanding of the diversity around these phenomena across multiple scales, and improved codesign and facilitation of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation strategies.

  4. Changes of plasma ET and BNP contents in patients suffering from essential hypertension with atrial fibrillation (AF)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To study the changes of plasma ET and BNP contents in patients suffering from essential hypertension with atrial fibrillation. Methods: Plasma ET and BNP contents were measured with IRMA in 130 patients with essential hypertension (48 with AF and 82 with out AF) and 56 controls. Results: The plasma contents of ET and BNP in patients with AF were significantly higher than those in controls (p<0.001). Conclusion: Further study in the changes of plasma ET and BNP contents in patients suffering from essential hypertension would be of great clinical importance in the prevention and treatment of the disease

  5. Explaining international co-authorship in global environmental change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jappe, A.

    2006-04-15

    This paper maps the domain of earth and environmental sciences (EES) and investigates the relationship between cognitive problem structures and internationalisation patterns, drawing on the concepts of systemic versus cumulative global environmental change (GEC) and mutual task dependence in scientific fields. We find that scientific output concentration and internationalisation are significantly higher in the systemic GEC fields of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences and Oceanography than in the cumulative GEC fields Ecology and Water Resources. The relationship is explained by stronger mutual task dependence in systemic GEC fields. In contrast, the portion of co-authorships with developing, emerging and transition countries among all international publications is larger for Water Resources than for the three other fields, consistent with the most pressing needs for STI capacity development in these countries. (orig.)

  6. Global warming calls for changes in public climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As an environmental management problem, the greenhouse issue will require fundamentally different approaches if the US is to do its part to limit global warming. Preventive measures must be used to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and reforestation and vegetative processes must help capture future carbon-dioxide emissions. In turn, these approaches will require changes in environmental and institutional management. There must be a close integration of energy and environmental policy with coordinated efforts among environmental agencies, energy agencies, and public service commissions to promote and evaluate energy conservation and energy efficiency. A creative policy mix of regulation, economic incentives, and penalties will be required, with specific policies targeted towards specific segments of the economy. Finally, energy R and D priorities must be broadened to promote utilization of existing and new energy-conservation and alternate-energy technologies that have not reached their market potential due to economic, institutional, and behavioral barriers

  7. Earth system science: A program for global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    The Earth System Sciences Committee (ESSC) was appointed to consider directions for the NASA Earth-sciences program, with the following charge: review the science of the Earth as a system of interacting components; recommend an implementation strategy for Earth studies; and define the role of NASA in such a program. The challenge to the Earth system science is to develop the capability to predict those changes that will occur in the next decade to century, both naturally and in response to human activity. Sustained, long-term measurements of global variables; fundamental descriptions of the Earth and its history; research foci and process studies; development of Earth system models; an information system for Earth system science; coordination of Federal agencies; and international cooperation are examined.

  8. Mycorrhizas and global environmental change: Research at different scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staddon, P.L.; Heinemeyer, A.; Fitter, A.H.

    2002-01-01

    conclude that the laboratory evidence to date shows that the effect of elevated CO2 on mycorrhizal fungi is dependent on plant growth and that temperature effects seen in the past might have reflected a similar dependence. Therefore, how temperature directly affects mycorrhizal fungi remains unknown......Global environmental change (GEC), in particular rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, will affect most ecosystems. The varied responses of plants to these aspects of GEC are well documented. As with other key below-ground components of terrestrial ecosystems, the response...... fungi are independent of the effects on their plant hosts. We evaluate the current knowledge on the effects of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on mycorrhizal fungi and focus on the few available field examples. The value of using long-term and large-scale field experiments is emphasised. We...

  9. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  10. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but also promotes directly a ''wet-gets-wetter'' trend pattern and indirectly a ''dry-gets-drier'' trend pattern through coupling with deserts and trade winds. The mechanisms recognized in this study suggest a way forward for understanding past and future changes of the GM in terms of its driven mechanisms. (orig.)

  11. Water security, global change and land-atmosphere feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Acreman, Michael; Harding, Richard

    2013-11-13

    Understanding the competing pressures on water resources requires a detailed knowledge of the future water balance under uncertain environmental change. The need for a robust, scientifically rigorous evidence base for effective policy planning and practice has never been greater. Environmental change includes, but is not limited to, climate change; it also includes land-use and land-cover change, including deforestation for agriculture, and occurs alongside changes in anthropogenic interventions that are used in natural resource management such as the regulation of river flows using dams, which can have impacts that frequently exceed those arising in the natural system. In this paper, we examine the role that land surface models can play in providing a robust scientific basis for making resource management decisions against a background of environmental change. We provide some perspectives on recent developments in modelling in land surface hydrology. Among the range of current land surface and hydrology models, there is a large range of variability, which indicates that the specification and parametrization of several basic processes in the models can be improved. Key areas that require improvement in order to address hydrological applications include (i) the representation of groundwater in models, particularly at the scales relevant to land surface modelling, (ii) the representation of human interventions such as dams and irrigation in the hydrological system, (iii) the quantification and communication of uncertainty, and (iv) improved understanding of the impact on water resources availability of multiple use through treatment, recycling and return flows (and the balance of consumptive and conservative uses). Through a series of examples, we demonstrate that changes in water use could have important reciprocal impacts on climate over a wide area. The effects of water management decisions on climate feedbacks are only beginning to be investigated-they are

  12. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turner II, B.L.; Lambin, E.F.; Reenberg, Anette

    2007-01-01

      Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research.  This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land-cover and land-use as a coupled human-environment system in order to address theory, concepts, models......, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two.  The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues.  The six articles...

  13. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, B L; Lambin, Eric F; Reenberg, Anette

    2007-12-26

    Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land cover and land use as a coupled human-environment system to address theory, concepts, models, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two. The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues. The six articles of the special feature are introduced and situated within these components of study.

  14. Effects of insecticidal essential oil fumigations on physiological changes in cut Dendrobium Sonia orchid flower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarongsak Pumnuan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated essential oil (EO formulas with high insecticidal properties, but low physiological impacts on cut Dendrobium Sonia orchid flower. Fumigation toxicities of EOs from 18 medicinal plants at 2.0 and 3.0 µl/L air were examined against adults of thrips (Frankliniella schultzei and larvae of mealybug (Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi. The effective EO mixtures, optimal concentrations fumigation and air circulation periods were investigated. Then, field experiments were conducted, and changes in L*, a* and b* values, percentages of weight loss and anthocyanin contents of the EOfumigated flower were observed and compared to the methyl bromide and control fumigations. The results showed that clove and cinnamon demonstrated high insecticidal properties against the insects (>85% mortality and low physiological changes in the flower. In particular, fumigations with 2.0 µl/L air of a mixture between clove and cinnamon EOs (1:3 for 3 hr with 15- min air circulation demonstrated the highest thrips and mealybug mortalities (92.2 and 74.6%, respectively. The EO fumigation formula presented less impact on color change and anthocyanin content than methyl bromide fumigation which showed higher reduction of anthocyanin content (22.9 mg/100g FW when compared to the control (13.6 mg/100g FW. The percentages of weight loss in the flower fumigated with EO, control and methyl bromide were about 10.4, 7.9 and 14.8%, respectively. In general, applications of EO at higher concentrations resulted in higher insect mortalities and more impacts on physiological changes which involved anthocyanin degradation and higher percentages of weight loss. Further studies might consider applications of clove and cinnamon EO formulas via other methods. In addition, revisions of the EO mixture can also be examined in order to obtain the most effective and environment friendly insect management approach.

  15. Oxidative Stress State Is Associated with Left Ventricular Mechanics Changes, Measured by Speckle Tracking in Essential Hypertensive Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Antonio Moreno-Ruíz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The oxidative stress state is characterized by an increase in oxygen reactive species that overwhelms the antioxidant defense; we do not know if these pathological changes are correlated with alterations in left ventricular mechanics. The aim was correlating the oxidative stress state with the left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS and the left ventricular end diastolic pressure (LVEDP. Twenty-five patients with essential hypertension and 25 controls paired by age and gender were studied. All of the participants were subjected to echocardiography and biochemical determination of oxidative stress markers. The hypertensive patients, compared with control subjects, had significantly (p<0.05 higher levels of oxidized proteins (5.03±1.05 versus 4.06±0.63 nmol/mg, lower levels of extracellular superoxide dismutase (EC-SOD activity (0.045±0.02 versus 0.082±0.02 U/mg, higher LVEDP (16.2±4.5 versus 11.3±1.6 mm Hg, and lower GLS (−12% versus −16%. Both groups had preserved ejection fraction and the results showed a positive correlation of oxidized proteins with GLS (r=0.386, p=0.006 and LVEDP (r=0.389, p=0.005; we also found a negative correlation of EC-SOD activity with GLS (r=-0.404, p=0.004 and LVEDP (r=-0.347, p=0.014.

  16. Oxidative Stress State Is Associated with Left Ventricular Mechanics Changes, Measured by Speckle Tracking in Essential Hypertensive Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Ruíz, Luis Antonio; Ibarra-Quevedo, David; Rodríguez-Martínez, Erika; Maldonado, Perla D.; Sarabia-Ortega, Benito; Hernández-Martínez, José Gustavo; Espinosa-Caleti, Beda; Mendoza-Pérez, Beatriz; Rivas-Arancibia, Selva

    2015-01-01

    The oxidative stress state is characterized by an increase in oxygen reactive species that overwhelms the antioxidant defense; we do not know if these pathological changes are correlated with alterations in left ventricular mechanics. The aim was correlating the oxidative stress state with the left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) and the left ventricular end diastolic pressure (LVEDP). Twenty-five patients with essential hypertension and 25 controls paired by age and gender were studied. All of the participants were subjected to echocardiography and biochemical determination of oxidative stress markers. The hypertensive patients, compared with control subjects, had significantly (p < 0.05) higher levels of oxidized proteins (5.03 ± 1.05 versus 4.06 ± 0.63 nmol/mg), lower levels of extracellular superoxide dismutase (EC-SOD) activity (0.045 ± 0.02 versus 0.082 ± 0.02 U/mg), higher LVEDP (16.2 ± 4.5 versus 11.3 ± 1.6 mm Hg), and lower GLS (−12% versus −16%). Both groups had preserved ejection fraction and the results showed a positive correlation of oxidized proteins with GLS (r = 0.386, p = 0.006) and LVEDP (r = 0.389, p = 0.005); we also found a negative correlation of EC-SOD activity with GLS (r = −0.404, p = 0.004) and LVEDP (r = −0.347, p = 0.014). PMID:26504504

  17. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  18. An Essential Role for Pediatricians: Becoming Child Poverty Change Agents for a Lifetime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plax, Katie; Donnelly, Jeanine; Federico, Steven G; Brock, Leonard; Kaczorowski, Jeffrey M

    2016-04-01

    Poverty has profound and enduring effects on the health and well-being of children, as well as their subsequent adult health and success. It is essential for pediatricians to work to reduce child poverty and to ameliorate its effects on children. Pediatricians have important and needed tools to do this work: authority/power as physicians, understanding of science and evidence-based approaches, and first-hand, real-life knowledge and love of children and families. These tools need to be applied in partnership with community-based organizations/leaders, educators, human service providers, business leaders, philanthropists, and policymakers. Examples of the effects of pediatricians on the issue of child poverty are seen in Ferguson, Missouri; Denver, Colorado; and Rochester, New York. In addition, national models exist such as the American Academy of Pediatrics Community Pediatrics Training Initiative, which engages numerous pediatric faculty to learn and work together to make changes for children and families who live in poverty and to teach these skills to pediatric trainees. Some key themes/lessons for a pediatrician working to make changes in a community are to bear witness to and recognize injustice for children and families; identify an area of passion; review the evidence and gain expertise on the issue; build relationships and partnerships with community leaders and organizations; and advocate for effective solutions. PMID:27044693

  19. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  20. Science and User Needs for Observing Global Mass Transport to Understand Global Change and to Benefit Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pail, Roland; Bingham, Rory; Braitenberg, Carla; Dobslaw, Henryk; Eicker, Annette; Güntner, Andreas; Horwath, Martin; Ivins, Eric; Longuevergne, Laurent; Panet, Isabelle; Wouters, Bert

    2015-11-01

    Satellite gravimetry is a unique measurement technique for observing mass transport processes in the Earth system on a global scale, providing essential indicators of both subtle and dramatic global change. Although past and current satellite gravity missions have achieved spectacular science results, due to their limited spatial and temporal resolution as well as limited length of the available time series numerous important questions are still unresolved. Therefore, it is important to move from current demonstration capabilities to sustained observation of the Earth's gravity field. In an international initiative performed under the umbrella of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, consensus on the science and user needs for a future satellite gravity observing system has been derived by an international panel of scientists representing the main fields of application, i.e., continental hydrology, cryosphere, ocean, atmosphere and solid Earth. In this paper the main results and findings of this initiative are summarized. The required target performance in terms of equivalent water height has been identified as 5 cm for monthly fields and 0.5 cm/year for long-term trends at a spatial resolution of 150 km. The benefits to meet the main scientific and societal objectives are investigated, and the added value is demonstrated for selected case studies covering the main fields of application. The resulting consolidated view on the required performance of a future sustained satellite gravity observing system represents a solid basis for the definition of technological and mission requirements, and is a prerequisite for mission design studies of future mission concepts and constellations.

  1. Arctic climate change with a 2C global warming. Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The signatories to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are charged with stabilizing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system. A number of nations, organizations and scientists have suggested that global mean temperature should not rise over 2C above preindustrial levels. However, even a relatively moderate target of 2C has serious implications for the Arctic, where temperatures are predicted to increase at least 1.5 to 2 times as fast as global temperatures. High latitude vegetation plays a significant role in the lives of humans and animals, and in the global energy balance and carbon budget. These ecosystems are expected to be among the most strongly impacted by climate change over the next century. To investigate the potential impact of stabilization of global temperature at 2C, we performed a study using data from six Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, the BIOME4 biogeochemistry-biogeography model, and remote sensing data. GCM data were used to predict the timing and patterns of Arctic climate change under a global mean warming of 2C. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra and six forest biomes was used to develop a map of observed Arctic vegetation. BIOME4 was used to simulate the vegetation distributions over the Arctic at the present and for a range of 2C global warming scenarios. The GCMs simulations indicate that the earth will have warmed by 2C relative to preindustrial temperatures by between 2026 and 2060, by which stage the area-mean annual temperature over the Arctic (60-90N) will have increased by between 3.2 and 6.6C. Forest extent is predicted by BIOME4 to increase in the Arctic on the order of 3 x 106 km2 or 55% with a corresponding 42% reduction in tundra area. Tundra types generally also shift north with the largest reductions in the prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra

  2. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.

  3. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  4. Pharmaceutical expenditure changes in Serbia and Greece during the global economic recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlo Jakovljevic

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Clarity on health expenditures is essential for the timely identification of risks that jeopardize the democratic provision of health services and the credibility of health insurance systems. Furthermore, observing health outcomes with geographical scope is essential for making multilateral associations. This study aimed at conveying information on the variability of important economic parameters of the health sector of Serbia and Greece from 2007 to 2012, when the most serious financial crisis in the post-war economic history hit the global economy. Methods: Exchange rates, purchase-power-parities (PPP and price indices were used for the bilateral review of health and pharmaceutical expenditure dynamics during 2007-2012. Prescription and dispensing changes were also studied taking into account the anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC structure of drugs consumed. Results: Greece was forced to cut down its total health care and pharmaceutical expenditure and mainly its out-of-pocket payments were more seriously affected by the recession. Surprisingly, emerging market of Serbia, although severely damaged by global recession, succeeded to maintain 19% growth of its per capita health expenditure and even 25% increase of its per capita spending on pharmaceuticals. Innovative pharmaceuticals showed an upward trend in both countries. Conclusions: These two countries might serve as an example of two distinct pathways of mature and emerging health care markets during financial constraints caused by global recession. Our findings show that producing disease-based feedback, in the long run, may empower the assessment of the return on investment on medical technology and healthcare systems’ cost-effectiveness.

  5. Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Risser, P.G.

    1990-02-01

    The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

  6. Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Lucas, P.L.; Hilderink, H.

    2007-01-01

    Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial detail. This paper presents a set of algorithms that aim to fill this gap by providing downscaled scenario data for populati

  7. Rates of global temperature change during the past millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Shen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available We examine the characteristics (amplitude and phase of the temporal variation in the rates of global-mean surface temperature change during the past millennium. The study was conducted by applying 20-, 30-, and 50-yr sliding windows to the observations of recent century and reconstructions of earlier times. The analysis focuses on the characteristics of the 20th century within the context of the millennium as well as their sensitivity to the low frequency variability of sea surface temperature (SST and time scales. On 20-yr time scale, comparable rates to that of the 20th century in both amplitude and phase occur in earlier nine centuries. The peak in the amplitude of rates in the 20th century on 30-yr time scale, although is not the largest during the past millennium, but is the most persistent. On 50-yr time scale, the 20th century warming rates are the highest and the most persistent during the past millennium. The results also indicate that although the SST variability does not affect much the amplitude of the rates, but the phases is quite different, thus highlighting the importance of the role of oceans in affecting the rates. We also analyzed the characteristics from global climate model (1000–1999 AD simulations with different climate (solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases forcing. Except for the one driven by the solar forcing, other forcing simulates similar amplitudes as the observed ones. However, only greenhouse gases (GHG forcing can reproduce the persistent high warming rates of the 20th century.

  8. Changing patterns in global lead supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, H.

    The past decade has seen some very significant changes in the supply and the demand for lead. One of the most obvious developments is the emergence of China—both as the world's largest producer of primary lead and as a very significant consumer. Perhaps less obvious have been the increasing role of secondary lead in meeting demand for refined metal and the rapid growth in demand for industrial batteries, which have helped to sustain an annual average growth rate in Western World consumption of 3.4% between 1993 and 2000. Patchy knowledge about the lead industry in China has made it difficult to anticipate developments there and has created uncertainty in the global market. This uncertainty, and lead's poor environmental image, largely undeserved as it may be today, has meant few companies outside the lead business want to be seen participating in it. This is just one factor accounting for the very limited increase in lead mine production for the foreseeable future. With around 75% of lead now being used in batteries and a very high global scrap recycling rate, it is probable that most, if not all, growth in lead demand can be met without an overall increase in mine production. The challenge for the lead industry will be to ensure that sufficient recycling capacity is in place in the right parts of the world to process an increasing quantity of battery and other lead-bearing scrap. Huge investment in the world's telecommunications infrastructure and IT networks in the second half of the 1990s created a major market for industrial lead-acid batteries. With the collapse of the market for telecommunications equipment in 2001, lead consumption has fallen sharply and has revealed the extent to which demand growth in recent years has been dependent on this sector.

  9. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark; Spek, Teun; van den Brink, Adri

    2015-01-01

    Context: Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  10. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Alam, S.J.; Dijk, van J.; Rounsevell, T.; Spek, T.; Brink, van den A.

    2015-01-01

    Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  11. Volatile constituents and behavioral change induced by Cymbopogon winterianus leaf essential oil in rodents

    OpenAIRE

    Leite, Bárbara Lima Simioni; Souza, Thaís Teles de; Antoniolli, Angelo Roberto; Guimarães, Adriana Gibara; Barreto, Rosana Souza Siqueira; QUINTANS, Jullyana de Souza Siqueira; Bonjardim, Leonardo Rogoldi; Alves, Péricles Barreto; Blank, Arie Fitzgerald; Almeida, Jackson Roberto Guedes da Silva; de Lima, Julianeli Tolentino; Quintans-Júnior, Lucindo José; Araújo, Adriano Antunes Souza

    2011-01-01

    Cymbopogon winterianus Jowitt (‘Java citronella’) is an important essential oil yielding aromatic grass cultivated in India and Brazil and its volatile essential oils extracted from its leaves are used in perfumery, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and flavoring industries. However, there is no report on any psychopharmacological study of C. winterianus leaf essential oil (LEO) available to date. In this study, the pharmacological effects of the LEO were investigated in animal models and its phy...

  12. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  13. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  14. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ Ts), future Δ Ts through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ Ts that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ Ts). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ Ts from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO2-equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ Ts evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ Ts attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  15. Model studies of the effects of global warming and Antarctic sea ice changes on Antarctic and global climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors discuss the results obtained in three experiments by changing the global ocean temperatures and the concentration and distribution of Antarctic sea ice in a General Circulation Model of July climate, with a view to determining the local and global impacts of Antarctic sea ice variations alone, as distinct with those coupled with global scale temperature changes which may be associated with global warming. In all cases there were significant changes in the upward flux of sensible heat over the sea ice zone associated with the reductions of sea ice. The response of weaker westerlies between 40 and 65 degree S was common to all three experiments. Their analyses suggest that a significant proportion of this is a response to the change in sea ice concentration alone. (Not surprisingly, further north of this region most of the changes induced in the wind structure in the global forcing experiment can be seen as due unambiguously to the differential changes in ocean temperatures.). This weakening of the westerlies means there is less mechanical forcing of the ocean in this region. From this they suggest that when consideration is given to the possible impact of feedbacks not considered in these experiments, sea ice changes alone, and particularly those in the Southern Hemisphere, have the potential to induce changes on a hemispheric scale

  16. Insensitivity of Global Neolithic Transition Patterns On Climatic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, K. W.

    Aiming to assess the relative importance of climate events on human history through- out the Holocene here a recently build model is employed. In the model 196 world regions are resolved which mainly differ in their food extraction potential (FEP) and potential number of agricultures. Both regional features are estimated using exist- ing vegetation maps. An array of state variables describes farming to foraging ratio, domestication success, technological and organizational development and population density. Deterministic rules for their time evolution are derived from a growth func- tion, an adaptation principle and a diffusion submodel. Overall model validity can be demonstrated by a striking similarity of simulated patterns and archaeological evi- dence. It is demonstrated that abrupt as well as smooth climatic changes, induced by FEP modifications, do not significantly affect development trajectories of Neolithic communities or global transition patterns. The stability of this result is tested through conducting numerical experiments based on massive parameter variation. However, population density always reacts sensitively, leading to the emergence of distinct mi- gration waves. An in-depth analysis of the differential model behavior provides new arguments in the face of recent or established theories linking climatic factors with human development.

  17. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  18. Greenhouse gas emission response to global change may be limited by vegetation community shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coastal marshes experience a confluence of global changes including climate change, sea level rise, exotic species invasion, and eutrophication. These changes are likely to exert new abiotic stressors and affect interspecific interactions that influence vegetation community stru...

  19. TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD BANKING SYSTEM IN CHANGING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shestopalova O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the processes of transformation in the global banking system amid the global financial and monetary crisis. The author argues that the globalization of the world economy has a significant impact on the development of the banking system as an important integral part of the financial system. The author comes to the conclusion that the crisis state of the U.S. economy and individual countries in Western Europe led to the transformation of the monetary and banking sector globally. Banking system world's leading economies are now in “at risk” because the instability of the U.S. dollar and the euro continues to make chaotic

  20. Global warming and climate change with reference to South Africa. Some perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawie de Villiers

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available According to the geological history of the earth, climate change is an integral part of environmental changes that occurred over time. Sufficient evidence is provided of recurrent wet and dry and cold and hot periods due to natural circumstances. Since the industrial revolution human activities increasingly contribute to air pollution by releasing huge volumes of carbon dioxide and other gasses into the atmosphere, so much so that it is generally accepted that increase in global warming the past decades is directly linked to human activities. Observable signs of human induced climate change include increasing average temperatures at many places, melting ice caps in polar areas, rising sea levels on a global scale and coastal disturbances and damages due to storm surges on coastal areas in various countries, also in South Africa. Consensus from a number of hydrological-meteorological circulation models show, for South Africa, a rise in average annual winter and summer temperatures of between 1.5 and 3.0 degrees Centigrade the following number of decades with a strong possibility of an increase in rainfall in the eastern parts and a decrease in rainfall in the western parts. Bigger floods and longer droughts should occur more frequently as well as severe sea onslaught activities along the eastern and south-eastern coastal areas. The net impact of the predictions on the community is negative. There is though other scientists who indicate that no concrete proof of climate change in South Africa exists; including changes with regard to river floods and droughts. According to more beneficial than detrimental. Despite the differences in opinion about the relative contribution of natural and human activities to the present global warming, changes in hydrological and characteristics of floods in several parts of South Africa in the immediate past, necessitate modifications to available models and approaches to flood damage management and control. Flood

  1. Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trygve Lavik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

  2. Locating Biodiversity Data Through The Global Change Master Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Lola M.

    1998-01-01

    The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) presently holds descriptions for almost 7000 data sets held worldwide. The directory's primary purpose is for data discovery. The information provided through the GCMD's Directory Interchange Format (DIF) is the set of information that a researcher would need to determine if a particular data set could be of value. By offering data set descriptions worldwide in many scientific disciplines - including meteorology, oceanography, ecology, geology, hydrology, geophysics, remote sensing, paleoclimate, solar-terrestrial physics, and human dimensions of climate change - the GCMD simplifies the discovery of data sources. Direct linkages to many of the data sets are also provided. In addition, several data set registration tools are offered for populating the directory. To search the directory, one may choose the Guided Search or Free-Text Search. Two experimental interfaces were also made available with the latest software release - one based on a keyword search and another based on a graphical interface. The graphical interface was designed in collaboration with the Human Computer Interaction Laboratory at the University of Maryland. The latest version of the software, Version 6, was released in April, 1998. It features the implementation of a scheme to handle hierarchical data set collections (parent-child relationships); a hierarchical geospatial location search scheme; a Java-based geographic map for conducting geospatial searches; a Related-URL field for project-related data set collections, metadata extensions (such as more detailed inventory information), etc.; a new implementation of the Isite software; a new dataset language field; hyperlinked email addresses, and more. The key to the continued evolution of the GCMD is in the flexibility of the GCMD database, allowing modifications and additions to made relatively easily to maintain currency, thus providing the ability to capitalize on current technology while importing

  3. Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.

  4. Antarctica and Global Environmental Change - Lessons from the Past Inform Climate Change Policy Today

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team

    2011-12-01

    Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts

  5. Future global ethics: environmental change, embedded ethics, evolving human identity.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Work on global ethics looks at ethical connections on a global scale. It should link closely to environmental ethics, recognizing that we live in unified social-ecological systems, and to development ethics, attending systematically to the lives and interests of contemp

  6. Global change and biogeochemical cycles: The south Asia region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mitra, A.P.; DileepKumar, M.; Kumar, K.R.; Abrol, Y.P.; Kalra, N.; Velayutham, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    stream_size 33 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt stream_source_info Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  7. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  8. To assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated into geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The transfer of ENEA PBDM (physiologically based demographic models) GIS technology, represents an opportunity to address global change in agriculture on an ecological basis in a local context, be able to provide European governmental agencies the necessary scientific basis for developing effective policies for adaptation to global change, including climate change

  9. Collaboration between the natural, social and human sciences in Global Change Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holm, P.; Goodsite, M.E.; Cloetingh, S.; Agnoletti, M.; Moldan, B.; Lang, D.J.; Leemans, R.; Oerstroem Moeller, J.; Pardo Buendía, M.; Pohl, W.; Scholz, R.W.; Sors, A.; Vanheusden, B.; Yusoff, K.; Zondervan, R.

    2013-01-01

    In nearly all domains of Global Change Research (GCR), the role of humans is a key factor as a driving force, a subject of impacts, or an agent in mitigating impacts and adapting to change. While advances have been made in the conceptualisation and practice of interdisciplinary Global Change Researc

  10. Changes in essential oil during enzyme-assisted ensiling of lemongrass (Cymbopogon citratus Stapf.) and lemon eucalyptus (Eucalyptus citriodora Hook).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudai, N; Weinberg, Z G; Larkov, O; Ravid, U; Ashbell, G; Putievsky, E

    2001-05-01

    Changes in essential oil during ensiling of lemongrass and lemon eucalyptus were studied. Wilted lemongrass and eucalyptus leaves were ensiled in 0.25-L anaerobic jars. Samples consisted of a control (no additives) and a treated sample (0.5% glucose and lactic acid bacteria and 1% cellulase plus 1% hemicellulase plus pectinase). Three jars per treatment were sampled on days 2, 6, 10, and 36 for analysis of essential oil. Essential oil was obtained by extraction and by hydrodistillation. Extraction efficacy of essential oil from the lemongrass was improved by the enzyme treatment, but it was much lower than the amount obtained by distillation. The major components of the essential oil were neral and geranial. In the eucalyptus, total essential oils obtained by distillation decreased during ensiling, and the amount was similar to the amount obtained by extraction. Citronellal, which was the major component of the essential oil in the fresh eucalyptus leaves, decreased, whereas isopulegol and 3,8-terpinolhydrate increased during ensiling. PMID:11368586

  11. Changes in the essential oil composition of Majorana hortensis Moench. cultivated in India during plant ontogeny

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RAM S. VERMA

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The essential oil content and composition of “sweet marjoram” (Majorana hortensis Moench. cultivated in the Kumaon region of the western Himalayas was studied at different ages of the crop. The samples were taken after 60, 90, 120 and 150 days of transplanting. The essential oil contents varied from 0.20 to 0.70 %. The essential oil was analyzed by GC and GC–MS. Twenty eight components, representing 96.53–98.44 % of the oil, were identified. The major essential oil constituents, viz., cis-sabinene hydrate (37.05–47.49 %, terpinen-4-ol (14.45–16.22 % and trans-sabinene hydrate (5.81–6.97 % showed considerable variation in their concentrations in relation to crop age.

  12. Land-use change and global climate policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO2 rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO2 rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO2. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  13. Evolutionary history of lagomorphs in response to global environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyan Ge

    Full Text Available Although species within Lagomorpha are derived from a common ancestor, the distribution range and body size of its two extant groups, ochotonids and leporids, are quite differentiated. It is unclear what has driven their disparate evolutionary history. In this study, we compile and update all fossil records of Lagomorpha for the first time, to trace the evolutionary processes and infer their evolutionary history using mitochondrial genes, body length and distribution of extant species. We also compare the forage selection of extant species, which offers an insight into their future prospects. The earliest lagomorphs originated in Asia and later diversified in different continents. Within ochotonids, more than 20 genera occupied the period from the early Miocene to middle Miocene, whereas most of them became extinct during the transition from the Miocene to Pliocene. The peak diversity of the leporids occurred during the Miocene to Pliocene transition, while their diversity dramatically decreased in the late Quaternary. Mantel tests identified a positive correlation between body length and phylogenetic distance of lagomorphs. The body length of extant ochotonids shows a normal distribution, while the body length of extant leporids displays a non-normal pattern. We also find that the forage selection of extant pikas features a strong preference for C(3 plants, while for the diet of leporids, more than 16% of plant species are identified as C(4 (31% species are from Poaceae. The ability of several leporid species to consume C(4 plants is likely to result in their size increase and range expansion, most notably in Lepus. Expansion of C(4 plants in the late Miocene, the so-called 'nature's green revolution', induced by global environmental change, is suggested to be one of the major 'ecological opportunities', which probably drove large-scale extinction and range contraction of ochotonids, but inversely promoted diversification and range expansion of

  14. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade' (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104)-'Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of Earth to sustain life'-with a focus on climate and land-use change. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystem, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy (2007). When science strategies that cover these other components are developed, coordinated implementation will be necessary to achieve Bureau-level synergies and optimize capabilities and expertise. In October 2010, USGS realigned its management and budget structure to implement its 2007 Science Strategy. The new organizational structure, in which 'Global Change' is one of seven key mission areas, lends itself to the advancement of the established six strategic goals. USGS global change science is formally represented by the 'Climate and Land-Use Change' Mission Area in the FY 2012 budge (USGS, 2011). This plan was developed by the USGS Global Change Science Strategy Planning Team (SSPT) appointed by the USGS Director on March 4, 2010 and charged with developing a Global Change Science Strategy for the coming decade (McNutt, 2010). USGS managers and science staff are the main audience for this science strategy. This document is also intended to serve as the foundation for consistent USGS collaboration and ccations with partners and stakeholders.

  15. The Japanese business model, and how globalization is changing it. Is change necessary for Japanese companies?

    OpenAIRE

    Daníel Jón Guðjónsson 1985

    2009-01-01

    The Japanese business model is one of the most intriguing aspects of Japanese society in my view due to its ability to export high quality products at low prices. The model’s success after the Second World War meant that Japan was the first Asian country to become a first world nation where living standards and longevity were among the highest in the world. Recently however, it can be said that the model has been changing in order to fit into the emerging global business environment wher...

  16. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; Russell, J. L.; Fanrong Zeng

    2007-01-01

    International audience Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, No...

  17. Anticipated public health consequences of global climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Longstreth, J

    1991-01-01

    Human activities are placing enormous pressures on the biosphere. The introduction of new chemicals and the increasing ambient levels of existing chemicals have resulted in atmospheric degradation. This paper reviews some of the adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming. Because the atmospheric effects of ozone depletion are fairly well characterized, quantitative risk estimates have been developed. However, because the atmospheric effects of global warming are less ...

  18. Changing Schools in an Era of Globalization. Routledge Research in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, John Chi-Kin; Caldwell, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    Much has been written about globalization and the challenge of preparing young people for the new world of work and life in times of complexity and continuous change. However, few works have examined how globalization has and will continue to shape education in the East. This volume discusses education within the context of globalization and…

  19. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  20. Effect of camphor essential oil on rat cerebral cortex activity as manifested by fractal dimension changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grbić G.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to investigate the effect of camphor essential oil on rat cerebral cortex activity by fractal analysis. Fractal dimension (FD values of the parietal electrocortical activity were calculated before and after intra-peritoneal administration of camphor essential oil (450-675 μl/kg in anesthetized rats. Camphor oil induced seizure-like activity with single and multiple spiking of high amplitudes in the parietal electrocorticogram and occasional clonic limb convulsions. The FD values of cortical activity after camphor oil administration increased on the average. Only FD values of cortical ECoG sequences were lower than those before camphor oil administration.

  1. A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

    OpenAIRE

    Simon N. Gosling; Arnell, Nigel W.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are es...

  2. Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al., Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang's series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0.83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang's series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.

  3. Self-organizing change? On drivers, causes and global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Elverfeldt, Kirsten; Embleton-Hamann, Christine; Slaymaker, Olav

    2016-01-01

    Within global environmental change research, certain external drivers generally are assumed to cause the environmental system to change. The most commonly considered drivers are relief, sea level, hydroclimate, and/or people. However, complexity theory and self-organizing systems provide a very different framework and means of explanation. Self-organization - understood as the aggregate processes internal to an environmental system that lead to a distinctive spatial, temporal, or other organization - reduces the possibility of implicating a specific process as being causal. The principle of equifinality, whereby two or more different drivers can generate the same form, has long been recognized within a process-response framework, as well as the concept of divergence, which states that similar causes or processes result in different effects. Both ideas differ from self-organization in that they (i) deal with drivers external to the system and (ii) imply concrete cause-and-effect relations that might be difficult to discern. The assumption is, however, that careful study will eventually lead to the true causes and processes. Studies of self-organization deal with the ways in which internal processes interact and may drive a system toward an instability threshold, the so-called bifurcation point. At this point, the system develops by chance and no single external or internal cause for the change can be defined. For research into environmental change this is a crucial theory for two reasons:

  4. Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.; Hizsnyik, E.; Clark, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    This study (1) critically reviews existing studies of global trends in population, agriculture, and energy with a view toward showing which studies are most useful for which sorts of studies of global environmental change and sustainable development. (2) Synthesizes a single, internally consistent scenario of global changes in population, agriculture, and energy over the next century for use as a "conventional wisdom" reference case for such studies. (3) Creates a number of "surprise-rich" sc...

  5. Middle school students' conceptual change in global climate change: Using argumentation to foster knowledge construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry W.

    This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the framework theory of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not simply correct incorrect ideas with correct ones, but instead weigh incoming ideas against already existing explanatory frameworks, which have likely served the learner well to this point. The research questions were as follows: (1) What are the patterns of students' conceptual change in GCC? (a) What conceptions are invoked in student learning in this arena? (b) What conceptions are most influential? (c) What are the extra-rational factors influencing conceptual change in GCC? This research took place in an urban public school in a medium sized city in the southeastern United States. A sixth grade science teacher at Central Middle school, Ms. Octane, taught a course titled "Research Methods I., which was an elective science course that students took as part of a science magnet program. A unit was designed for 6th grade instruction that incorporated an Argument-Driven Inquiry (ADI) approach, centered on the subject matter of Global Climate change and Global Warming. Students were immersed in three separate lessons within the unit, each of which featured an emphasis upon creating scientific explanations based upon evidence. Additionally, each of the lessons placed a premium on students working towards the development of such explanations as a part of a group, with an emphasis on peer review of the robustness of the explanations proposed. The students were involved in approximately a two week unit emphasizing global climate change. This unit was based on an argumentation model that provided data to students and asked them to develop explanations that accounted for the data. The students then underwent a peer-review process to determine if

  6. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera; Peter Läderach; Christian Bunn; Michael Obersteiner; Götz Schroth

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee ('Coffea arabica') within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s...

  7. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Ishtiaq Hassan; Abdul Razzaq Ghumman; Hashim Nisar Hashmi

    2011-01-01

    Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end o...

  8. Deforestation: Can We Balance Resource Conservation with Economic Growth? Global Environmental Change Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

    This book is the second installment in the Global Environmental Change Series that links the ecology and biology of global environmental changes with insights and information from other disciplines. This series teaches students how to gather a wide range of information from pertinent areas of study and encourages them to develop their own opinions…

  9. Total land water storage change over 2003-2013 estimated from a global mass budget approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieng, H. B.; Champollion, N.; Cazenave, A.; Wada, Y.; Schrama, E.; Meyssignac, B.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the total land water storage (LWS) change between 2003 and 2013 using a global water mass budget approach. Hereby we compare the ocean mass change (estimated from GRACE space gravimetry on the one hand, and from the satellite altimetry-based global mean sea level corrected for steric eff

  10. Re-Examining the Relationship between Tillage Regime and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammons, Sarah K.

    2009-01-01

    It is known that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global climate change and that reducing our emissions will stem its acceleration (Baker et al., 2007). Aside from emission reductions, another method for stemming global climate change is to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere by storing…

  11. Biodiversity: Can We Balance Resource Conservation with Economic Growth? Global Environmental Change Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

    This book is the first installment in the Global Environmental Change Series that links the ecology and biology of global environmental changes with insights and information from other disciplines. It encourages students to weigh a wide range of information from pertinent disciplines and to develop their own opinions in order to make their own…

  12. Modeling the climate change impacts on global coffee production

    OpenAIRE

    Bunn, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die globale Kaffeeproduktion in einem integriertem Modell war das Ziel dieser Arbeit. Der vorwiegende Teil der globalen Kaffeeproduktion stammt von zwei Arten: dem hitzeempfindlichen Coffea arabica (Arabica) Strauch und vom frostempfindlichen Coffea canephora (Robusta). Eine zunehmende Zahl Studien zeigt, dass der Klimawandel bereits heute die Produktion mindert. Maschinenlernklassifizierung wurde hier genutzt um ein Modell der globalen...

  13. Global Climate Change:A Monumental Mitigation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    A holistic view of long-term sustainability cannot ignore humanity’s ever-growing demands on fossil fuels, water, and other finite geological resources. Figure 1 (Princiotta et. al., 2014) illustrates the key factors that are responsible for potentially unsustainable global impac...

  14. Glacier fluctuations, global temperature and sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leclercq, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    The current world-wide glacier retreat is a clear sign of global warming. In addition, glaciers contribute to sea-level rise as a consequence of the current retreat. In this thesis we use records of past glacier fluctuations to reconstruct past climate variations and the glacier contribution to sea-

  15. Global change and water resources in the next 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. C.; Hirsch, R. M.

    2010-03-01

    in the first half of the 20th century. Decreased summer runoff affects water supply for agriculture, domestic water supply, cooling needs for thermoelectric power generation, and ecosystem needs. In addition to the reduced volume of streamflow during warm summer months, less water results in elevated stream temperature, which also has significant effects on cooling of power generating facilities and on aquatic ecosystem needs. We are now required to include fish and other aquatic species in negotiation over how much water to leave in the river, rather than, as in the past, how much water we could remove from a river. Additionally, we must pay attention to the quality of that water, including its temperature. This is driven in the US by the Endangered Species Act and the Clean Water Act. Furthermore, we must now better understand and manage the whole hydrograph and the influence of hydrologic variability on aquatic ecosystems. Man has trimmed the tails off the probability distribution of flows. We need to understand how to put the tails back on but can’t do that without improved understanding of aquatic ecosystems. Sea level rise presents challenges for fresh water extraction from coastal aquifers as they are compromised by increased saline intrusion. A related problem faces users of ‘run-of-the-river’ water-supply intakes that are threatened by a salt front that migrates further upstream because of higher sea level. We face significant challenges with water infrastructure. The U.S. has among the highest quality drinking water in the world piped to our homes. However, our water and sewage treatment plants and water and sewer pipelines have not had adequate maintenance or investment for decades. The US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that there are up to 3.5M illnesses per year from recreational contact with sewage from sanitary sewage overflows. Infrastructure investment needs have been put at 5 trillion nationally. Global change and water resources

  16. The human dimensions of global environmental change: Ecosystem services, resilience, and governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rechkemmer, A.; von Falkenhayn, L.

    2009-02-01

    Global environmental change affects all societies and their environments at various spatial and temporal scales. The linking of natural ecosystems to social ones is of central importance for the analysis, mitigation of and adaptation to any action or issue related to sustainability and global change. When examining the human dimensions of environmental change, the study of ecosystem services illustrates the strong interlinkages existing between both socio-ecological systems and global change. Ecosystem services are inextricably linked to human well-being and play a central role in sustainable adaptation strategies. Environmental impact of global change can both add to social vulnerability and change resilience by altering the supply of ecosystem services and the trade-offs which can occur. It is when examining such phenomena that the importance and abilities of governance systems to shape change and responses are seen.

  17. Changes of Peel Essential Oil Composition of Four Tunisian Citrus during Fruit Maturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumaya Bourgou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work investigates the effect of ripening stage on the chemical composition of essential oil extracted from peel of four citrus: bitter orange (Citrus aurantium, lemon (Citrus limon, orange maltaise (Citrus sinensis, and mandarin (Citrus reticulate and on their antibacterial activity. Essential oils yields varied during ripening from 0.46 to 2.70%, where mandarin was found to be the richest. Forty volatile compounds were identified. Limonene (67.90–90.95% and 1,8-cineole (tr-14.72% were the most represented compounds in bitter orange oil while limonene (37.63–69.71%, β-pinene (0.63–31.49%, γ-terpinene (0.04–9.96%, and p-cymene (0.23–9.84% were the highest ones in lemon. In the case of mandarin, the predominant compounds were limonene (51.81–69.00%, 1,8-cineole (0.01–26.43%, and γ-terpinene (2.53–14.06%. However, results showed that orange peel oil was dominated mainly by limonene (81.52–86.43% during ripening. The results showed that ripening stage influenced significantly the antibacterial activity of the oils against Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This knowledge could help establish the optimum harvest date ensuring the maximum essential oil, limonene, as well as antibacterial compounds yields of citrus.

  18. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  19. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  20. International wood trade and forest change : A global analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kastner, Thomas; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Nonhebel, Sanderine

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, humans have transformed natural forests into agricultural land, settlement areas and managed forests. Studies on the dynamics of forest change are one of the mainstays in land change science. The forest transition theory offers a powerful tool to analyze changes in human interfer

  1. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2014-10-22

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.

  2. World environmental policy. Conceptual approaches of German political science in response to the challenges of Global Change; Weltumweltpolitik - Global Change als Herausforderung fuer die deutsche Politikwissenschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biermann, F. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Dingwerth, K. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften

    2001-12-01

    This paper describes, first, the international community of social scientists working on global change, and elaborates on possible contributions to this community by German political scientists. Second, the paper examines three new conceptual approaches to analysing global change, namely the Syndromes of Global Change approach, Earth System Analysis, and Sustainability Science. The paper then elaborates on a number of ways in which German political science could respond to the academic and political challenges posed by global change. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a new approach, focusing on 'world environmental policy analysis' that would bridge traditional (environmental) policy analysis, international relations research, and comparative politics. (orig.) [German] Der Aufsatz beschreibt die Wissenschaftslandschaft der internationalen sozialwissenschaftlichen Global-Change-Forschung mit besonderem Augenmerk auf moegliche Beitraege der deutschen Politologie. Mit den 'Syndromen des Globalen Wandels', der 'Erdsystemanalyse' und der 'Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaft' werden drei neuere konzeptionelle Innovationen vorgestellt, mit denen der Herausforderung des Globalen Wandels begegnet werden soll. Anschliessend werden Wege skizziert, wie die Politikwissenschaft auf die neuen gesellschaftlichen und wissenschaftlichen Probleme des Globalen Wandels reagieren koennte. Eine Schlussfolgerung ist ein Plaedoyer fuer die Entwicklung einer eigenstaendigen Weltumweltpolitik-Analyse an der Schnittstelle von traditioneller Policy-Analyse, Internationalen Beziehungen/Aussenpolitik sowie Komparatistik. (orig./CB)

  3. Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Wada, Y.; Moel, de H.; Kummu, M.S.; Eisner, S.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    79%) of the yearly changes in global water scarcity, whilst only after six to ten years, socioeconomic developments become the largest driver of change. Moreover, our results showed that the growth in the relative contribution of socioeconomic developments to changing water scarcity conditions stabi

  4. A global change data base using Thematic Mapper data - Earth Monitoring Educational System (EMES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Antoni, Hector L.; Peterson, David L.

    1992-01-01

    Some of the main directions in creating an education program in earth system science aimed at combining top science and technology with high academic performance are presented. The creation of an Earth Monitoring Educational System (EMES) integrated with the research interests of the NASA Ames Research Center and one or more universities is proposed. Based on the integration of a global network of cooperators to build a global data base for assessments of global change, EMES would promote degrees at all levels in global ecology at associated universities and colleges, and extracurricular courses for multilevel audiences. EMES objectives are to: train specialists; establish a tradition of solving regional problems concerning global change in a systemic manner, using remote sensing technology as the monitoring tool; and transfer knowledge on global change to the national and world communities. South America is proposed as the pilot continent for the project.

  5. SIGNAL DETECTION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTERNAL FORCING FACTORS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李晓东; 王在文; 侯章栓

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, we displayed one-dimensional climate signals, such as global temperature variation, Southern Oscillation Index and variation of external forcing factors, on a two-dimensional time-scale plane using compactly supported wavelet decomposition. Using the lag-correlation analysis method, and interpretative variance analysis method, and phase comparison method to the wavelet analysis result, we not only gained the variation on different scales to the global temperature and El Nino signals, the location of the jump point and intrinsic scale of these series, but also indicated the magnitude, extent and time of the effect of external forcing factors on them. We also put forward reasonable explanation to the main variation of recent 140 years.

  6. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  7. Fracking in the face of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

    2015-12-01

    Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

  8. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  9. Global changes in biogeochemical cycles in response to human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Melillo, Jerry

    1994-01-01

    The main objective of our research was to characterize biogeochemical cycles at continental and global scales in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This characterization applied to both natural ecosystems and those disturbed by human activity. The primary elements of interest were carbon and nitrogen and the analysis sought to quantify standing stocks and dynamic cycling processes. The translocation of major nutrients from the terrestrial landscape to the atmosphere (via trace gases) and to fluvial systems (via leaching, erosional losses, and point source pollution) were of particular importance to this study. Our aim was to develop the first generation of Earth System Models. Our research was organized around the construction and testing of component biogeochemical models which treated terrestrial ecosystem processes, aquatic nutrient transport through drainage basins, and trace gas exchanges at the continental and global scale. A suite of three complementary models were defined within this construct. The models were organized to operate at a 1/2 degree latitude by longitude level of spatial resolution and to execute at a monthly time step. This discretization afforded us the opportunity to understand the dynamics of the biosphere down to subregional scales, while simultaneously placing these dynamics into a global context.

  10. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambin, Eric F; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2011-03-01

    A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms-the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects-that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.

  11. Building Inter-hemispheric Climate and Global Change Education Programs for Students, Teachers, and the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R.; Lagrave, M.; Bergman, J.; Carbone, L.; Foster, S.; Gardiner, L.; Genyuk, J.; Henderson, S.; Russell, R.; Ward, D.

    2007-05-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado is a leading research institution in the area of global and climate change research worldwide. As a component of NCAR's mission in research, education, and service, NCAR supports numerous programs designed to bring this science to different audiences in order to promote better understanding of climate and global change research as well as its relevance in learning contexts. Our climate and global change education and outreach effort targets several audiences, including online and in-person professional development for middle and high school educators, exhibits, tours, websites, and development of educational resources on climate and global change topics. The design of our program intentionally leverages resources in support of multiple audiences (including Spanish-speakers) in different settings. Beginning in 2006, building on relationships developed through the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO) campaign, we began to expand our collaborations with scientists and educators in Latin America, including Mexico and Chile.

  12. Correlation Factor Analysis of Retinal Microvascular Changes in Patients With Essential Hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Duru; Huang Zhongning

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To investigate correlation between retinal microvascular signs and essential hypertension classification. Methods The retinal microvascular signs in patients with essential hypertension were assessed with the indirect biomicroscopy lens, the direct and the indirect ophthalmoscopes were used to determine the hypertensive retinopathy grades and retinal arteriosclerosis grades.The rank correlation analysis was used to analysis the correlation these grades with the risk factors concerned with hypertension. Results Of 72 cases with essential hypertension, 28 cases complicated with coronary disease, 20 cases diabetes, 41 cases stroke,17 cases renal malfunction. Varying extent retinal arterioscleroses were found in 71 cases, 1 case with retinal hemorrhage, 2 cases with retina edema, 4 cases with retinal hard exudation, 5 cases with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation, 2 cases with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation and cotton wool spot, 1 case with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation and microaneurysms,1 case with retinal edema and hard exudation, 1 case with retinal microaneurysms, 1 case with branch retinal vein occlusion. The rank correlation analysis showed that either hypertensive retinopathy grades or retinal arteriosclerosis grades were correlated with risk factor lamination of hypertension (r=0.25 or 0.31, P<0.05), other correlation factors included age and blood high density lipoprotein concerned about hypertensive retinopathy grades or retinal arteriosclerosis grades, but other parameters, namely systolic or diastolic pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose,blood urea nitrogen and blood creatinine were not confirmed in this correlation analysis (P > 0.05).Conclusions Either hypertensive retinopathy grade or retinal arteriosclerosis grade is close with the hypertension risk factor lamination, suggesting that the fundus examination of patients with

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC STATUS. PRESENT AND PERSPECTIVES

    OpenAIRE

    Scientific researcher III Ph.D Surugiu Camelia; Scientific researcher III Ph.D Surugiu Marius-Razvan

    2009-01-01

    Climate change, currently affecting the entire planet, is considered by the specialists the result of the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Sectors such as agriculture, transport, energy, tourism and also food security, population health, water resources, and ecosystems become vulnerable to the changes in climate. The climate change could generate costs and benefits for the Romanian seaside and mountain tourism, the multiple linear regression models proving that the tourism demand...

  14. Providing Context for Complexity: Using Infographics and Conceptual Models to Teach Global Change Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding modern and historical global changes requires interdisciplinary knowledge of the physical and life sciences. The Understanding Global Change website from the UC Museum of Paleontology will use a focal infographic that unifies diverse content often taught in separate K-12 science units. This visualization tool provides scientists with a structure for presenting research within the broad context of global change, and supports educators with a framework for teaching and assessing student understanding of complex global change processes. This new approach to teaching the science of global change is currently being piloted and refined based on feedback from educators and scientists in anticipation of a 2016 website launch. Global change concepts are categorized within the infographic as causes of global change (e.g., burning of fossil fuels, volcanism), ongoing Earth system processes (e.g., ocean circulation, the greenhouse effect), and the changes scientists measure in Earth's physical and biological systems (e.g., temperature, extinctions/radiations). The infographic will appear on all website content pages and provides a template for the creation of flowcharts, which are conceptual models that allow teachers and students to visualize the interdependencies and feedbacks among processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The development of this resource is timely given that the newly adopted Next Generation Science Standards emphasize cross-cutting concepts, including model building, and Earth system science. Flowchart activities will be available on the website to scaffold inquiry-based lessons, determine student preconceptions, and assess student content knowledge. The infographic has already served as a learning and evaluation tool during professional development workshops at UC Berkeley, Stanford University, and the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History. At these workshops, scientists and educators used the infographic

  15. A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher W Woodall; Grant M Domke; Riley, Karin L.; Christopher M Oswalt; Crocker, Susan J.; Yohe, Gary W.

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the c...

  16. The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Renée Mozell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

  17. Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

    OpenAIRE

    Sommer, Jan Henning; Kreft, Holger; Kier, Gerold; Jetz, Walter; Mutke, Jens; Barthlott, Wilhelm

    2010-01-01

    Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Cli...

  18. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs)

    OpenAIRE

    Wajeeha Malik; Hajra Shahid; Rabeea Zafar; Zaheer Uddin; Zafar Wazir; Zubair Anwar; Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak; Syed Shahid Ali

    2012-01-01

    The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to ...

  19. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  20. Developing priority variables ("ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables" — eEOVs) for observing dynamics and change in Southern Ocean ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Constable, Andrew J.; Costa, Daniel P; Schofield, Oscar; Newman, Louise; Urban, Edward R.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Ballerini, Tosca; Boyd, Philip W.; Brandt, Angelika; de la Mare, Bill; Edwards, Martin; Eléaume, Marc; Emmerson, Louise; Fennel, Katja

    2016-01-01

    Reliable statements about variability and change in marine ecosystems and their underlying causes are needed to report on their status and to guide management. Here we use the Framework on Ocean Observing (FOO) to begin developing ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables (eEOVs) for the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). An eEOV is a defined biological or ecological quantity, which is derived from field observations, and which contributes significantly to assessments of Southern Ocean ecosyst...

  1. Impacts of Global Change Scenarios on Ecosystem Services from the World's Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    Water is an essential building block of the Earth system and is critical to human prosperity. At the same time, humans are rapidly embedding themselves into the basic character of the water cycle without full knowledge of the consequences. Major sources of water system change include mismanagement and overuse, river flow distortion, pollution, watershed disturbance, invasive species, and greenhouse warming. A pandemic syndrome of risk to rivers-the chief renewable water supply supporting humans and aquatic biodiversity—is evident at the fully global scale, with a costly price-tag ($0.5Tr/yr) required for engineering-based management solutions aimed at fixing rather than preventing problems before they arise. A new project funded under the NSF's Coupled Natural-Human Systems program aims to improve our current understanding of the geography of water-related ecosystem services, accounting for both biophysical and economic controls on these services, and assessing how new management strategies could enhance the resiliency of the global water system over a 100-year time horizon. Within the context of the many sources of threat summarized above, we see the coupling of human-natural systems to be intrinsic to the science at hand, through which we have formulated our central hypothesis: Human-derived stresses imposed on the global water system will intensify over the 21st century, reducing water-related freshwater ecosystem provisioning and supporting services, increasing the costs of their remediation, limiting and shifting the geography of key economic sector outputs, and threatening biodiversity. Addressing this hypothesis has forced a substantial advancement in current capabilities, namely to (i) extend analysis into the 21st century through scenarios, (ii) develop explicit links to freshwater ecosystem services, (iii) assess how the condition of ecosystem services influences the world economy through individual sectors (food, energy, domestic water supply

  2. A new world natural vegetation map for global change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Lapola

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available We developed a new world natural vegetation map at 1 degree horizontal resolution for use in global climate models. We used the Dorman and Sellers vegetation classification with inclusion of a new biome: tropical seasonal forest, which refers to both deciduous and semi-deciduous tropical forests. SSiB biogeophysical parameters values for this new biome type are presented. Under this new vegetation classification we obtained a consensus map between two global natural vegetation maps widely used in climate studies. We found that these two maps assign different biomes in ca. 1/3 of the continental grid points. To obtain a new global natural vegetation map, non-consensus areas were filled according to regional consensus based on more than 100 regional maps available on the internet. To minimize the risk of using poor quality information, the regional maps were obtained from reliable internet sources, and the filling procedure was based on the consensus among several regional maps obtained from independent sources. The new map was designed to reproduce accurately both the large-scale distribution of the main vegetation types (as it builds on two reliable global natural vegetation maps and the regional details (as it is based on the consensus of regional maps.Elaborou-se um novo mapa global de vegetação natural naresolução horizontal de 1 grau para uso em modelos climáticos de circulação geral. Utilizou-se a classificação de vegetação de Dorman e Sellers com a inclusão de um novo bioma: floresta tropical estacional, que compreende as florestas tropicais decíduas e semidecíduas. Para este novo tipo de bioma, apresentaram-se os valores de parâmetros biogeofísicos domodelo de processos à superfície SSiB. Sob essa nova classificação de vegetação, obteve-se um mapa de consenso entre dois mapas globais de vegetação natural amplamente utilizados em estudos climáticos. Mostrou-se que esses dois mapas alocam biomas diferentes em cerca

  3. Communication Risks and Best Practices in Global Software Development during Requirements Change Management: A Systematic Literature Review Protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Ali Khan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, software systems are becoming an essential part of business in the world. The majority of the software production companies are adopting Global Software Development (GSD and it is incessantly getting faster. Most of the software development organisations are trying to globalize their study worldwide in order to get the different benefits. However, GSD is not a simple task and the organizations face various challenges. But communication is a major issue and it becomes more complicated during the Requirements Change Management (RCM in the context of GSD. This research will explore communication risks, their causes, negative effects and those mitigation practices which can be used to allay communication risks during the RCM process. A Systematic Literature Review (SLR protocol has been developed and the implementation of the protocol is in process. The SLR protocol provides in depth and more comprehensive results than common literature review.

  4. How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmerson, M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Hunter, M.D.; Jones, T.H.; Masters, G.J.; Dam, van N.M.

    2004-01-01

    Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However `change` is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties

  5. Change in global aerosol composition since preindustrial times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsigaridis, K.; Krol, M.C.; Dentener, F.; Balkanski, Y.; Lathiere, J.; Metzger, S.; Hauglustaine, D.; Kanakidou, M.

    2006-01-01

    To elucidate human induced changes of aerosol load and composition in the atmosphere, a coupled aerosol and gas-phase chemistry transport model of the troposphere and lower stratosphere has been used. The present 3-D modeling study focuses on aerosol chemical composition change since preindustrial t

  6. A Global Carbon Levy for Climate Change Adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leuenberger, Moritz [President of the Swiss Confederation (Switzerland)

    2006-11-15

    Climate change is happening, here and now. We are tied together by melting glaciers in Africa and in Europe, by floods in America and in Asia, and by droughts and shortages of fresh water in Australia and Africa. And we are tied by a joint responsibility to combat climate change around the world and help those affected by it.

  7. Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E. Allen (David); R.J. Powell (Robert); A.K. Singh (Abhay)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents an application of a recently developed approach by Matteson and James (2012) for the analysis of change points in a data set, namely major financial market indices converted to financial return series. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in the dist

  8. ADVANCED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ANALYSIS USING THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENT MODEL (GCAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J. A.; Wise, M. A.; MacCracken, C. N.

    1994-05-01

    We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analys~s shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences. in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences In modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the m~ddleo f the eighteenth century. While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emiss~ons reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

  9. Environmental changes in perspective: The global response to challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As we approach the end of the second millennium, a series of major problems seems to threaten the world's rapidly expanding population: the consequences of global warming, the hole in the ozone layer, pollution of the Earth's oceans, fresh waters, soil and atmosphere, the declining biodiversity, and the degradation of land and soil quality. Concerns appear to be justified, at least as long as the world's main development goals continue to be the economic levels of its wealthiest nations and their high consumption and waste production patterns

  10. Climate change at the coast: from global to local; Impact du changement climatique sur la cote: de global a local

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watkinson, A.R. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (United Kingdom); East Anglia Univ., School of East Science, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  11. Global, long-term Earth Science Data Records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation from Landsat: the Global Forest Cover Change Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, J.; Huang, C.; Channan, S.; Feng, M.; Song, X.; Kim, D.; Song, D.; Vermote, E.; Masek, J.; Townshend, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    Monitoring, analysis, and management of forests require measurements of forest cover that are both spatio-temporally consistent and resolved globally at sub-hectare resolution. The Global Forest Cover Change project, a cooperation between the University of Maryland Global Land Cover Facility and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, is providing the first long-term, sub-hectare, globally consistent data records of forest cover, change, and fragmentation in circa-1975, -1990, -2000, and -2005 epochs. These data are derived from the Global Land Survey collection of Landsat images in the respective epochs, atmospherically corrected to surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 using the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) implementation of the 6S radiative transfer algorithm, with ancillary information from MODIS Land products, ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM), and climatological data layers. Forest cover and change were estimated by a novel continuous-field approach, which produced for the 2000 and 2005 epochs the world's first global, 30-m resolution database of tree cover. Surface reflectance estimates were validated against coincident MODIS measurements, the results of which have been corroborated by subsequent, independent validations against measurements from AERONET sites. Uncertainties in tree- and forest-cover values were estimated in each pixel as a compounding of within-sample uncertainty and accuracy relative to a sample of independent measurements from small-footprint lidar. Accuracy of forest cover and change estimates was further validated relative to expert-interpreted high-resolution imagery, from which unbiased estimates of forest cover and change have been produced at national and eco-regional scales. These first-of-kind Earth Science Data Records--surface reflectance in 1990, 2000, and 2005 and forest cover, change, and fragmentation in and between 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005--are hosted at native, Landsat

  12. Patterns of change: whose fingerprint is seen in global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences, for example, greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation, taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time–space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well, evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone, and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects, and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations.

  13. The North Atlantic Region and Socio-Economic impacts of Global Change: Tracking Change using Arctic Social Indicators

    OpenAIRE

    Sölmundur Karl Pálsson

    2009-01-01

    The interest of social scientists on the arctic has increased steadily in recent years, because of the climate change and its impacts on resources. Scientists have predicted some environmental and social change in the arctic. The focus of this paper will be on the north Atlantic region and possible impacts of global changes. The possible impacts of climate change on Greenland and Iceland is shift in commercial species, especially on cod and shrimp. The main interest of social scientists o...

  14. Assess and control global change in agriculture through ecosystem models integrated in geographic information systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ENEA has created, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley, the Global Change Biology project that, for the first time, has made available in Europe a technology that can be It used to interpret and effectively manage change Global agriculture. The aim of the project was to provide tools to summarize, manage and analyze data Ecological on the effects of global change in agricultural systems, using traditional Mediterranean crops (Eg. Vineyards and olive) as model systems (http: // cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/89728_en.html).

  15. Global Climate Change Leads to Mistimed Avian Reproduction

    OpenAIRE

    Visser, Marcel E; Both, Christiaan; Lambrechts, Marcel M.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change is apparent as an advancement of spring phenology. However, there is no a priori reason to expect that all components of food chains will shift their phenology at the same rate. This differential shift will lead to mistimed reproduction in many species, including seasonally breeding birds. We argue that climate change induced mistiming in avian reproduction occurs because there is a substantial period between the moment of decision making on when to reproduce and the moment at ...

  16. WATCH IP. Water and Global Change. Third year Activity report to the European Commission.

    OpenAIRE

    Warnaars, Tanya; Harding, Richard; Blyth, Eleanor; Weedon, Graham; Hagemann, Stefan; Tallaksen, Lena; Van Lanen, Henny; Ludwig, Fulco

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Project (WATCH) brings together the hydrological, water resources and climate communities to analyse, quantify and predict the components of the current and future global water cycles and related water resources, evaluate their uncertainties and clarify the overall vulnerability of global water resources related to the main societal and economic sectors. The WATCH project will analyse and describe the current global water cycle, especially changes in extremes (droughts...

  17. Re evaluation of the temperature limit for UHS is technical specification against global environment change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sea water for all Korean Nuclear Power Plants plays the most important roll of providing an ultimate heat sink for heat removal from safety related components during a transient or accident as well non safety related components during normal operation. Generally, the heat removal function through UHS is done by essential service water system and the component cooling water system. In recent years, as the UHS(Ultimate Heat Sink) temperature is gradually increasing due to global environment change, it is also becoming a threat for the enough operating margin of nuclear plants against uncontrolled plant shutdown from violation of technical specification, which can be described as a difference between the Limiting Conditions for Operation(LCO) and the actual maximum temperature of sea water during the hot summer. KOPEC has been performing the engineering work with closing cooperation with KHNP and KEPRI for relaxation of LCO limit by re evaluation of the more realistic heat loads to UHS and in depth review of the existing design margins of the related systems for the operating plants. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the engineering experience with typical results that has been applied for the Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plant, OPR 1000 during the couple of years. It is believed that the methodology used to increase LCO limit for sea water temperature as the UHS would be helpful to resolve an environmentally induced threat for nuclear power plant operation

  18. Changing environments: Coping with diversity and globalization [Session summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: This session explored issues and challenges arising from the globalization of the nuclear industry. There was recognition that the industry has moved towards a smaller number of vendors and nuclear safety standards needed to evolve towards more harmonized international requirements. Also, in the future, nuclear regulatory systems need to approach common, harmonized approaches to deliver consistent nuclear safety regulations. There was also recognition that to support new nuclear design concepts, and new regulatory approaches, new research and development is needed. There was also a need for R and D to be widely shared. New approaches based upon international design certification processes were proposed as a way of providing effective and efficient harmonization of regulatory standards for new reactor systems. The key issues to emerge were: (1) Globalization calls for more harmonization of regulatory requirements, where appropriate. Efforts in this direction are pursued at the regional levels, acknowledging that harmonization does not mean uniformity. The role of the IAEA safety standards in building an international nuclear safety regime has also increased. (2) The regulatory community will benefit strongly from cross-fertilization between regional and multinational efforts, and the international developments of more user friendly safety standards that take into account the feedback from different users. Consideration should also be given to mapping the coverage and identifying differences and gaps between IAEA and industrial safety standards. (3) There is a need to build on the IAEA safety standards to provide vendors, operators and regulators with international standards for design and operation of nuclear installations: - There is a need to develop a process whereby regulatory bodies can get together to assess and agree on a design so that the design can be accepted in any country; - There was disagreement as to whether design certification was an

  19. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  20. Global change and the dark of the moon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We have considered the possibility of using earthshine to measure the reflectance properties of the earth (albedo and phase function). Measurements of earthshine carried out by Danjon in 1926--33 show that even then the average albedo could be determined with a precision of ±0.01 and that both synoptic and seasonal variations could be observed clearly. We show that, after correction for wavelength dependence and the opposition effect in the lunar reflectance properties, Danjon's visual albedo of 0.40 can be reconciled with the ERBE satellite Bond albedo of 0.30. We recommend a modern earthshine monitoring program (advantages include global integration, continuous coverage, ground basing, and low cost) as a complement to present and planned satellite measurements

  1. Global analysis of induced transcription factors and cofactors identifies Tfdp2 as an essential coregulator during terminal erythropoiesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cynthia; Lodish, Harvey F

    2014-06-01

    Key transcriptional regulators of terminal erythropoiesis, such as GATA-binding factor 1 (GATA1) and T-cell acute lymphocytic leukemia protein 1 (TAL1), have been well characterized, but transcription factors and cofactors and their expression modulations have not yet been explored on a global scale. Here, we use global gene expression analysis to identify 28 transcription factors and 19 transcriptional cofactors induced during terminal erythroid differentiation whose promoters are enriched for binding by GATA1 and TAL1. Utilizing protein-protein interaction databases to identify cofactors for each transcription factor, we pinpoint several co-induced pairs, of which E2f2 and its cofactor transcription factor Dp-2 (Tfdp2) were the most highly induced. TFDP2 is a critical cofactor required for proper cell cycle control and gene expression. GATA1 and TAL1 are bound to the regulatory regions of Tfdp2 and upregulate its expression and knockdown of Tfdp2 results in significantly reduced rates of proliferation as well as reduced upregulation of many erythroid-important genes. Loss of Tfdp2 also globally inhibits the normal downregulation of many E2F2 target genes, including those that regulate the cell cycle, causing cells to accumulate in S phase and resulting in increased erythrocyte size. Our findings highlight the importance of TFDP2 in coupling the erythroid cell cycle with terminal differentiation and validate this study as a resource for future work on elucidating the role of diverse transcription factors and coregulators in erythropoiesis.

  2. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.G. Brauch; Ú. Oswald Spring; C. Mesjasz; J. Grin; P. Kameri-Mbote; B. Chourou; P. Dunay; J. Birkmann

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  3. A New Way for Students and Colleges to Bring about Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, William Jefferson

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of history, students and universities have played important, often transformative roles in guiding all people toward a healthier, more equitable, sustainable, and prosperous global community. Today they face unprecedented global challenges relating to climate change, extreme poverty, malnutrition and disease, and equitable…

  4. NASA Scientific Forum on Climate Variability and Global Change: UNISPACE 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Robert A.; Unninayar, Sushel

    1999-01-01

    The Forum on Climate Variability and Global Change is intended to provide a glimpse into some of the advances made in our understanding of key scientific and environmental issues resulting primarily from improved observations and modeling on a global basis. This publication contains the papers presented at the forum.

  5. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calfapietra, C., E-mail: carlo.calfapietra@ibaf.cnr.i [Institute of Agro-Environmental and Forest Biology (IBAF), National Research Council (CNR), Via Salaria km 29300, 00015 Monterotondo Scalo, Roma (Italy); Gielen, B. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Karnosky, D. [Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931 (United States); Ceulemans, R. [University of Antwerpen, Campus Drie Eiken, Department of Biology, Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Universiteitsplein 1, B-2610 Wilrijk (Belgium); Scarascia Mugnozza, G. [Department of Agronomy, Forestry and Land Use (DAF), Agricultural Research Council of Italy (CRA), Via del Caravita 7/a 00186 Roma (Italy)

    2010-04-15

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level. - Growth and management of agroforestry plantations will be influenced by climate change.

  6. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  7. Leading Culture Change in Global Organizations Aligning Culture and Strategy

    CERN Document Server

    Denison, Daniel; Lane, Nancy; Lief, Colleen

    2012-01-01

    Filled with case studies from firms such as GT Automotive, GE Healthcare China, Vale, Dominos, Swiss Re Americas Division, and Polar Bank, among others, this book (written by Dan Denison and his co-authors) combines twenty years of research and survey results to illustrate a critical set of cultural dynamics that firms need to manage in order to remain competitive. Each chapter uses a case as a means to illustrate an important aspect of culture change focusing on seven common culture-change dilemmas including creating a strategic alignment, keeping strategy simple, and more.

  8. Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, D. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Wardle, D. A.

    2011-03-01

    , and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting feedbacks to R across terrestrial ecosystems and the earth-climate system.

  9. Changes in the Essential Oil Composition in the Needles of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L. Under Anthropogenic Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asta Judzentiene

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable anthropogenic factors, such as air pollution, lead to biochemical responses in trees. Changes in the amounts of secondary metabolites may be early indicators of invisible injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate composition of the essential oils in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. growing in the areas affected by pollutant emissions of main factories in Lithuania: a nitrogen fertilizer factory (NFF, a cement factory (CF, and an oil refinery (OR. Totally, 14 pine stands were examined along transects from the factories (July 2005. Volatile components of the needles were extracted and analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Over 70 components of the essential oils were identified in current-year and 1-year-old needles.

  10. How does global change affect the strength of trophic interactions?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmerson, M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Hunter, M.D.; Jones, T.H.; Masters, G.J.; Van Dam, N.M.

    2004-01-01

    Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However ‘change’ is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties

  11. RESPONSE AND FEEDBACKS OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. Climate Change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response, and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. Forests play a major role in the Eart...

  12. RESPONSES AND FEEDBACK TO GLOBAL FORESTS TO CLIMATE CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past century is projected to cause a warming of the Earth. limate change predictions vary by region and terrestrial biosphere response and feedbacks will be ecosystem specific. orests play a major role in the earth's...

  13. Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades.

  14. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ovalle-Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee. PMID:25875230

  15. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera

    Full Text Available Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  16. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  17. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases

  18. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  19. Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lousma, Jack R.

    1992-01-01

    Activities and accomplishments of the first six months of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN's) 1992 technical program have focused on four main missions: (1) the development and implementation of plans for initiation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) as part of the EOSDIS Program; (2) the pursuit and development of a broad-based global change information cooperative by providing systems analysis and integration between natural science and social science data bases held by numerous federal agencies and other sources; (3) the fostering of scientific research into the human dimensions of global change and providing integration between natural science and social science data and information; and (4) the serving of CIESIN as a gateway for global change data and information distribution through development of the Global Change Research Information Office and other comprehensive knowledge sharing systems.

  20. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases