WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing global essential

  1. Global Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    A review of the year’s international political and security situation In 2010, despite the generally stable international environment, significant changes occurred seen in international relations. This is due largely

  2. Technology and Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grübler, Arnulf

    2003-10-01

    Technology and Global Change describes how technology has shaped society and the environment over the last 200 years. Technology has led us from the farm to the factory to the internet, and its impacts are now global. Technology has eliminated many problems, but has added many others (ranging from urban smog to the ozone hole to global warming). This book is the first to give a comprehensive description of the causes and impacts of technological change and how they relate to global environmental change. Written for specialists and nonspecialists alike, it will be useful for researchers and professors, as a textbook for graduate students, for people engaged in long-term policy planning in industry (strategic planning departments) and government (R & D and technology ministries, environment ministries), for environmental activists (NGOs), and for the wider public interested in history, technology, or environmental issues.

  3. Why understanding history is essential for global business success

    OpenAIRE

    Dunung, S.

    2012-01-01

    The academic disciplines of business and history have not traditionally been connected in a meaningful way until the past half century. Increasingly it is clear that that understanding global, regional, national history is essential for global business success.

  4. Global Governance, Educational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundy, Karen

    2007-01-01

    In the last half decade, a rising literature has focused on the idea that processes of economic, political and social globalization require analysis in terms of governance at the global level. It is argued in this article that emerging forms of global governance have produced significant challenges to conventional conceptions of international…

  5. Global atmospheric changes.

    OpenAIRE

    Piver, W T

    1991-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be directly related to global warming. In terms of human health, because a major cause of increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 is the increased combustion of fossil fuels, global warming also may result in increases in air pollutants, acid deposition, and exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To understand better the impacts of global warming phenomena on human health, this review emphasizes the proces...

  6. Foreign Direct Investments Expansion – Essential Globalization Factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălin Emilian HUIDUMAC PETRESCU

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We live in a time when the world economy is constantly changing. Foreign direct investments is one of the most dynamic part of the world economy and in a continuous globalization, those international financial flows determining the traders to know their defining elements and to adopt a specific management in the international affairs field. We are viewers of an unprecedented expansion of foreign direct investments, essential factor of the globalization development process. The paper analyzes the evolution of FDI so far, along with a brief illustration as the main trends of international financial flows for 2010 and 2011. In the context of economic globalization, it is absolutely necessary to clear out a study on the various economic activities, especially on the differences between countries. The analysis of these differences is particularly important as it helps improve and optimize the strategies adopted by foreign transnational companies. In the past 15 years, one observes that most companies in emerging countries, characterized by a great expansion, have adopted in the first phase of their existence, corporate strategies that gave them the opportunity to become global companies. According to surveys, after reaching the first goal, becoming a multinational or a transnational company, they have developed new business models beyond the classical principles and strategies. It is anticipated that in the coming decades, the strategies of emerging companies will be influenced by functional specialization, which, according to experts, influence the process of globalization. The analysis of strategies adopted by companies in emerging countries is absolutely necessary because the results cannot be overlooked. For example, until 2004, only five Asian companies were part of the top 100 transnational companies. The study was carried out by UNCTAD and the identification criterion was the size of foreign assets. In 2006, 14% of world total FDI came from

  7. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  8. Soil bacterial community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergmark, Lasse

    /change the microbial community towards a higher fungal dominance. That could lead to a change in the carbon and nutrient flow in soil. In Manuscript 2 the impact of climate change manipulations and the seasonal dynamics of soil fungi and bacterial communities are investigated. Our results show that the soil fungal......Soil bacteria and archaea are essential for ecosystem functioning and plant growth through their degradation of organic matter and turnover of nutrients. But since the majority of soil bacteria and archaea are unclassified and “nonculturable” the functionality of the microbial community and its...... overall importance for ecosystem function in soil is poorly understood. Global change factors may affect the diversity and functioning of soil prokaryotes and thereby ecosystem functioning. To gain a better understanding of the effects of global changes it is of fundamental importance to classify...

  9. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  10. Global change: Acronyms and abbreviations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodard, C.T. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Stoss, F.W. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Energy, Environment and Resources Center

    1995-05-01

    This list of acronyms and abbreviations is compiled to provide the user with a ready reference to dicipher the linguistic initialisms and abridgements for the study of global change. The terms included in this first edition were selected from a wide variety of sources: technical reports, policy documents, global change program announcements, newsletters, and other periodicals. The disciplinary interests covered by this document include agriculture, atmospheric science, ecology, environmental science, oceanography, policy science, and other fields. In addition to its availability in hard copy, the list of acronyms and abbreviations is available in DOS-formatted diskettes and through CDIAC`s anonymous File Transfer Protocol (FTP) area on the Internet.

  11. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  12. Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) is dedicated to understanding the problems of global climate change and their potential solutions. The Institute...

  13. Global Change in the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alverson, Keith

    2004-05-01

    Many people, even perhaps the occasional Eos reader, associate the term ``global change'' with warming caused by mankind's recent addiction to fossil fuels. Some may also be well aware of enormous global changes in the distant past uninfluenced by humans; for example, Pleistocene ice ages. But was there any ``global change'' between the end of the last ice age and the onset of industrialization? The answer to this question is addressed early-in the title, even-in the new book Global Change in the Holocene. I don't suggest anyone stop reading after the title, though; the rest of the book is both highly informative and a real pleasure to read. The opening chapter tells us that the Holocene is certainly not, as sometimes charged, a ``bland, pastoral coda to the contrasted movements of a stirring Pleistocene symphony.'' Rather, it is a ``period of continuous change.'' Melodious language aside, the combination of sustained and high-amplitude climatic variability and a wealth of well-preserved, precisely datable paleoclimate archives make the Holocene unique. Only by studying the Holocene can we hope to unravel the low-frequency workings of the Earth system and the degree to which humans have changed our world. This book sets out to teach the reader how to obtain the relevant data and how to use it to do much more than showing static analogues of possible future climate states. It challenges researchers to discern in their data the effects of the dynamic processes underlying coupled variability in the Earth's climate and ecosystems. These processes continue to act today, and it is through providing an understanding of these system dynamics in the Holocene that paleo-environmental studies can make the greatest contribution to future-oriented concerns.

  14. Ecological effects of global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, A.

    2010-03-01

    Mankind actually puts manifolds loads on our earth including stratospheric ozone depletion, rising freshwater use, changes of land cover and land use. For several of these threats, critical loads and thresholds may be already exceeded, e.g. nitrogen input, climate change and biodiversity loss (Röckström et al. 2009). The working group on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the last IPCC report (AR4, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic warming over the last three decades has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems, thus global fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change was detectable on all continents and almost all ocean areas (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). 90% of the significant temperature related changes in 29000 records analysed were consistent with climate warming, e.g. in warming climates earlier spring events, distributional shifts pole wards and to higher altitudes, or community changes with reduced cold adapted species were observed. These impacts, already visible and only related to less than 1°C global warming, allow a limited glance at future changes and pressures on our ecosystems, as the rate of warming may accelerate and will be linked to stronger and more frequent extreme events. Vegetation is an important component of the climate system, part of biogeochemical cycles and the lower boundary of GCMs characterised by certain albedo and roughness. Thus, climate change impacts on vegetation exert feedbacks. The most striking and challenging problems in analysing climate change impacts on ecosystems are related to cases where one would expect major changes due to warming however there is reduced, limited or no reaction in the observed systems. This feature is known as divergence problem in tree ring research, called resilience in ecosystem dynamics or might be simply a time-lag or environmental monitoring problem. However, there are various other pressures by global change, e.g. land use change or pollution, leading

  15. Global biodiversity monitoring: from data sources to essential biodiversity variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proenca, Vania; Martin, Laura J.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Fernandez, Miguel; McRae, Louise; Belnap, Jayne; Böhm, Monika; Brummitt, Neil; Garcia-Moreno, Jaime; Gregory, Richard D.; Honrado, Joao P; Jürgens, Norbert; Opige, Michael; Schmeller, Dirk S.; Tiago, Patricia; van Sway, Chris A

    2016-01-01

    Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) consolidate information from varied biodiversity observation sources. Here we demonstrate the links between data sources, EBVs and indicators and discuss how different sources of biodiversity observations can be harnessed to inform EBVs. We classify sources of primary observations into four types: extensive and intensive monitoring schemes, ecological field studies and satellite remote sensing. We characterize their geographic, taxonomic and temporal coverage. Ecological field studies and intensive monitoring schemes inform a wide range of EBVs, but the former tend to deliver short-term data, while the geographic coverage of the latter is limited. In contrast, extensive monitoring schemes mostly inform the population abundance EBV, but deliver long-term data across an extensive network of sites. Satellite remote sensing is particularly suited to providing information on ecosystem function and structure EBVs. Biases behind data sources may affect the representativeness of global biodiversity datasets. To improve them, researchers must assess data sources and then develop strategies to compensate for identified gaps. We draw on the population abundance dataset informing the Living Planet Index (LPI) to illustrate the effects of data sources on EBV representativeness. We find that long-term monitoring schemes informing the LPI are still scarce outside of Europe and North America and that ecological field studies play a key role in covering that gap. Achieving representative EBV datasets will depend both on the ability to integrate available data, through data harmonization and modeling efforts, and on the establishment of new monitoring programs to address critical data gaps.

  16. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt

    2012-01-01

    The program: a) Coordinates Federal research to better understand and prepare the nation for global change. b) Priori4zes and supports cutting edge scientific work in global change. c) Assesses the state of scientific knowledge and the Nation s readiness to respond to global change. d) Communicates research findings to inform, educate, and engage the global community.

  17. Global change research: Science and policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1993-05-01

    This report characterizes certain aspects of the Global Change Research Program of the US Government, and its relevance to the short and medium term needs of policy makers in the public and private sectors. It addresses some of the difficulties inherent in the science and policy interface on the issues of global change. Finally, this report offers some proposals for improving the science for policy process in the context of global environmental change.

  18. Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoda, Haruhisa

    In order to meet the requirements of Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as to continue the ADEOS and ADEOS2 missions, JAXA is now planning the GCOM mission which is composed of a series of satellites. There are two series of satellites, and they are now called GCOM-W and GCOM-C satellites. Both series are composed of 3 satellites with 5 years lifetime. Hence, 13 years of continuous observation can be assured with 1 year overlaps. The first satellite of GCOM-W will be launched in fiscal 2011 while the first one of GCOM-C will be launched in fiscal 2013. In regard to global warming, the GCOM intends the measurement of most factors involved in the energy and water cycle and material cycle, which are the main mechanisms determining climate change, and also analysis of the relevant processes. Within the material cycle, measurement of the carbon cycle is a key subject. In this particular field, the GCOM aims at estimating the primary production as well as carbon flux based on measurement data on land vegetation and phytoplankton. In regard to changes of the land environment, the measuring subjects are tropical forests and the global distribution of vegetation and its changes. In regard to the cryosphere, the sea ice concentration and snow coverage are measured and their interaction with the climate is analyzed. GCOM-W1 will carry AMSR2 (AMSR F/O). AMSR2 will be very similar to AMSR on ADEOS2 and AMSR-E on EOS-Aqua with some modifications. The aperture of AMSR2 is 2m, and AMSR2 will have more accurate hot load than AMSR. Two kinds of modification are intro-duced. One is to use an actively controlled thermal reflector over the hot load. This reflector is called a temperature controlled plate (TCP). Another modification is to shield the ambient emissions. GCOM-C1 will carry GLI F/O (called the second generation GLI : SGLI). The SGLI will be rather different from GLI on ADEOS2. The main targets of SGLI are atmospheric aerosols, coastal zone and land

  19. What are the Essential Success Strategies for Global CIOs?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jay Crotts

    2010-01-01

    @@ As a CIO in the global environment,my biggest challenge is to understand the dynamics of how my company operates in each country.Acquiring an understanding of how market maturity affects business strategy helps me develop an IT strategy that supports local markets while enhancing them with the global resources,processes and efficiencies at our disposal.

  20. How Will Climate Change Affect Globalization?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dilyard, John Raymond; Bals, Lydia; Zhuplev, Anatoly;

    2011-01-01

    , it will effect globalization. Businesses, if they want to be sustained, will have to adjust to climate change. This panel will examine two topics within which the relationship between climate change and globalization can be assessed - the sourcing of resources and services when the location of those resources...

  1. Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Janet; Serra-Diaz, Josep M; Syphard, Alexandra D; Regan, Helen M

    2016-04-05

    Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

  2. International law and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Churchill, R.; Freestone, D. (eds.)

    1991-01-01

    If climatic change is a global problem, it can only have a global solution, which must be brought about through the development of appropriate international law. This book tackles the legal problems that are at the heart of the matter. It has chapters on the following: international law and the protection of the global atmosphere; the precautionary principle; international equity and global warming; tropical forests; development issues; the role of international non-governmental organisations; international law and sea level rise; the international legal protection of wildlife; controlling emissions of greenhouse gases; institutional and legal reponses to global warming; and the negotiation and drafting of the climate change convention. There are a number of appendices containing documents on global climate change. Seven chapters are abstracted separately.

  3. FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND GLOBAL CHANGE: THE CASE STUDY OF INSUBRIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pautasso

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems face multiple challenges due to climate change, invasive species, urbanization, land use change and the interactions between these global change drivers. This review provides an overview of such challenges for the case study of Insubria. Insubria is a region on the Southern side of the European Alps, famous for its stunning lakes (e.g., Como, Garda, Lugano, Maggiore, blessed by a relatively mild and humid climate, and shaped by the geologic fault line between the African and European plates. Global change impacts in Insubria pose a threat to its biodiversity and chestnut woodlands, particularly through modified winter forest fire regimes. Insubric biodiversity conservation, in turn, is essential to counteract the effects of climate change. Sustainable management of Insubric forests is made more difficult by rural abandonment, air pollution and invasive exotic species. There is a need to develop reliable long-term bio-indicators and to predict the shift of Insubric species, ecosystems and tree-lines due to rapid climate changes. Insubric studies on forests and global change call for enhanced international collaboration in forest management and research. Interdisciplinary approaches are needed to move from studies of single global change drivers to experiments, scenarios and models taking into account their combination and our responses to global change.

  4. New Views on Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xiaoying; Yang Xuexiang; Du Xinwei

    2000-01-01

    Many cosmic facts , such as the earth orbit, the activity of the sun, the moon and the planet orbits and so on,may effect on geological processes on the earth including precipitation. It is a serious problem that the human being is facing with water deficiency. Global cooling and tectonic activity are the major factors of desertification and human action aggravates this process. It is time to do something to prevent the acceleration in the mature and artificial hazards. We must keep the balance of nature for sustainable development.

  5. Soil fungal community responses to global changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugwitz, Merian Skouw

    Global change will affect the functioning and structure of terrestrial ecosystems and since soil fungi are key players in organic matter decomposition and nutrient turnover, shifts in fungal community composition might have a strong impact on soil functioning. The main focus of this thesis...... composition of fungi, but the effects were generally limited to the litter layer and the uppermost humus layer (0-5 cm), which was unexpected considering the ecosystem had been manipulated for 18 years. Taken together the global change experiments altered the soil fungal communities and thereby highlight...... was therefore to investigate the impact of global environmental changes on soil fungal communities in a temperate and subartic heath ecosystem. The objective was further to determine global change effects on major functional groups of fungi and analyze the influence of fungal community changes on soil carbon...

  6. Phenology as global change bioindicator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menzel, A. [Muenchen Univ., Freising (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Bioklimatologie und Immissionsforschung

    1999-07-01

    The increases in air temperature due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be detected easily in the phenological data of Europe and Germany within the last four decades. Results of phenological model studies reveal that the vegetation period of trees in Central Europe could be further lengthened without an increase in late spring frost risk. The models furthermore clearly attribute the changes in springtime to changes in air temperature. (orig.)

  7. Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

    1993-01-01

    Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

  8. Climate Effects of Global Land Cover Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbard, S G; Caldeira, K; Bala, G; Phillips, T; Wickett, M

    2005-08-24

    There are two competing effects of global land cover change on climate: an albedo effect which leads to heating when changing from grass/croplands to forest, and an evapotranspiration effect which tends to produce cooling. It is not clear which effect would dominate in a global land cover change scenario. We have performed coupled land/ocean/atmosphere simulations of global land cover change using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model. We find that replacement of current vegetation by trees on a global basis would lead to a global annual mean warming of 1.6 C, nearly 75% of the warming produced under a doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, while global replacement by grasslands would result in a cooling of 0.4 C. These results suggest that more research is necessary before forest carbon storage should be deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming. In particular, high latitude forests probably have a net warming effect on the Earth's climate.

  9. Is global warming already changing ocean productivity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  10. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  11. USGCRP's Geocuration of Global Change Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Goldstein, J.; Newman, B.; Akamine, B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program's (USGCRP's) developed the Global Change Information System (GCIS) to provide specialists and the general public with accessible and usable global change information. GCIS focus is on the cross-cutting theme of Global Change Information that is spread across federal government repositories and the broader research community. An open source web-based resource, the GCIS provides human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various resources. GCIS's capabilities demonstrated with the release of the NCA have been extended to support a set of USGCRP Global Change Indicators and will support future USGCRP scientific reports and assessments such as the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment. GCIS provides named sources and contacts for figures, images and data sources, with the provenance continuing to the platforms and instruments or other observations on which the these documents are based. The GCIS team has been working with the U. S. Climate Data and Tools (CDAT) teams to demonstrate that by extending the GCIS ontology links can be provided between assessments, data and tools, as well as, help curate climate sub-themes such as those focused on a specific societal benefit area (e.g. health) or region (e.g. Arctic).

  12. International business and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinkse, J.; Kolk, A.

    2008-01-01

    Climate change has become an important topic on the business agenda with strong pressure being placed on companies to respond and contribute to finding solutions to this urgent problem. This text provides a comprehensive analysis of international business responses to global climate change and clima

  13. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  14. Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

  15. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  16. Decadal Changes in Global Ocean Chlorophyll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Conkright, Margarita E.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The global ocean chlorophyll archive produced by the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) was revised using compatible algorithms with the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWIFS), and both were blended with in situ data. This methodology permitted a quantitative comparison of decadal changes in global ocean chlorophyll from the CZCS (1979-1986) and SeaWiFS (Sep. 1997-Dec. 2000) records. Global seasonal means of ocean chlorophyll decreased over the two observational segments, by 8% in winter to 16% in autumn. Chlorophyll in the high latitudes was responsible for most of the decadal change. Conversely, chlorophyll concentrations in the low latitudes increased. The differences and similarities of the two data records provide evidence of how the Earth's climate may be changing and how ocean biota respond. Furthermore, the results have implications for the ocean carbon cycle.

  17. Deep solar minimum and global climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed A. Hady

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the deep minimum of solar cycle 23 and its potential impact on climate change. In addition, a source region of the solar winds at solar activity minimum, especially in the solar cycle 23, the deepest during the last 500 years, has been studied. Solar activities have had notable effect on palaeoclimatic changes. Contemporary solar activity are so weak and hence expected to cause global cooling. Prevalent global warming, caused by building-up of green-house gases in the troposphere, seems to exceed this solar effect. This paper discusses this issue.

  18. Open access: changing global science publishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparyan, Armen Yuri; Ayvazyan, Lilit; Kitas, George D

    2013-08-01

    The article reflects on open access as a strategy of changing the quality of science communication globally. Successful examples of open-access journals are presented to highlight implications of archiving in open digital repositories for the quality and citability of research output. Advantages and downsides of gold, green, and hybrid models of open access operating in diverse scientific environments are described. It is assumed that open access is a global trend which influences the workflow in scholarly journals, changing their quality, credibility, and indexability.

  19. Pedosphere and Its Effect on Global Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    With development of modern geoscience, particularly development of environmental sciences, the con temporary soil science is undergoing great changes in both research contents and scope. Soil is not only a certain substance or a certain independent natural historical body but also a spheric layer with peculiar structure and functions in the earth system. From the viewpoint of the geo-biosphere system of earth, soil science does deal not only with the soil substances per se but also more importantly with the relationships among soil, the other spheres and the human survival environment in view of the “pedosphere”. This is the new orientation of soil science today and will affect profoundly the studies on the human survival environment and global changes. To throw more light on this subject, the present paper intends to address the conception of pedosphere and its role in global changes. Also addressed are series of environmental issues in China and their relations to the global changes. Moreover, research orientation and priorities are indicated, including exploitation and protection of the soil resources, soil fertility and sustainable agricultural development, con struction of the ecological environment, and the material cycling in pedosphere and its relation to global changes.

  20. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  1. Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard

    2016-11-01

    Global environmental changes such as climate change result from the interaction of human and natural systems. Research to understand these changes and options for addressing them requires the physical, environmental, and social sciences, as well as engineering and other applied fields. In this essay, we describe how the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) has provided leadership in global change science over the past 25 years—in particular how it has contributed to the integration of the natural and social sciences needed to research the drivers of change, Earth system response, natural and human system impacts, and options for risk management. We illustrate the ways the history of AGCI has been intertwined with the evolution of global change science as it has become an increasingly interdisciplinary endeavor.

  2. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  3. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warmin...

  4. Biological approaches to global environment change mitigation and remediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, F Ian; Bardgett, Richard D; Raven, John A; Hetherington, Alistair M

    2009-07-28

    One of the most pressing and globally recognized challenges is how to mitigate the effects of global environment change brought about by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, especially CO(2). In this review we evaluate the potential contribution of four biological approaches to mitigating global environment change: reducing atmospheric CO(2) concentrations through soil carbon sequestration and afforestation; reducing predicted increases in global surface temperatures through increasing the albedo of crop plants; and fertilizing the oceans to increase primary productivity and CO(2) drawdown. We conclude that none of these biological approaches are 'magic bullets' capable of reversing environmental changes brought about by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. However, it is possible that increasing crop albedo and soil carbon sequestration might contribute towards mitigation on a regional scale. In the absence of legally binding international agreements to reduce CO(2) emissions, we propose that: increased efforts are made to identify novel biological mitigatory strategies; further research is conducted to minimise the uncertainties present in all four of the biological approaches described; and pilot-level field work is conducted to examine the feasibility of the most promising strategies. Finally, it is essential to engage with the public concerning strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change because the majority of the biological approaches have effects, quite possibly of a negative nature, on ecosystem services and land usage.

  5. Aspen Global Change Institute Summer Science Sessions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katzenberger, John; Kaye, Jack A

    2006-10-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) successfully organized and convened six interdisciplinary meetings over the course of award NNG04GA21G. The topics of the meetings were consistent with a range of issues, goals and objectives as described within the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Strategic Plan and more broadly by the US Global Change Research Program/Our Changing Planet, the more recent Climate Change Program Strategic Plan and the NSF Pathways report. The meetings were chaired by two or more leaders from within the disciplinary focus of each session. 222 scholars for a total of 1097 participants-days were convened under the auspices of this award. The overall goal of each AGCI session is to further the understanding of Earth system science and global environmental change through interdisciplinary dialog. The format and structure of the meetings allows for presentation by each participant, in-depth discussion by the whole group, and smaller working group and synthesis activities. The size of the group is important in terms of the group dynamics and interaction, and the ability for each participant's work to be adequately presented and discussed within the duration of the meeting, while still allowing time for synthesis

  6. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  7. Changing Foundations for Global Business Systems Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slepniov, Dmitrij; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum; Gubi, Ebbe

    2011-01-01

    Companies are actively seeking new competitive advantages by changing the location and ownership of their manufacturing processes. This process results in increasing fragmentation and dispersion of global business systems of companies. The purpose of this paper is to identify how companies may...... improve the integration of such business systems. The paper draws on a case study of a Danish industrial equipment firm. The paper describes and analyzes the company’s operations network configurations, which lay at the foundations of the company’s global business system. It is demonstrated how...... the operations configurations have been changing over time and affecting the overall business system. The paper identifies the key determinants and outcomes of this change. Moreover, it proposes how the design of operations configurations can be improved through the development of a distinct systemic approach...

  8. Seagrass meadows in a globally changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unsworth, Richard K F; van Keulen, Mike; Coles, Rob G

    2014-06-30

    Seagrass meadows are valuable ecosystem service providers that are now being lost globally at an unprecedented rate, with water quality and other localised stressors putting their future viability in doubt. It is therefore critical that we learn more about the interactions between seagrass meadows and future environmental change in the anthropocene. This needs to be with particular reference to the consequences of poor water quality on ecosystem resilience and the effects of change on trophic interactions within the food web. Understanding and predicting the response of seagrass meadows to future environmental change requires an understanding of the natural long-term drivers of change and how these are currently influenced by anthropogenic stress. Conservation management of coastal and marine ecosystems now and in the future requires increased knowledge of how seagrass meadows respond to environmental change, and how they can be managed to be resilient to these changes. Finding solutions to such issues also requires recognising people as part of the social-ecological system. This special issue aims to further enhance this knowledge by bringing together global expertise across this field. The special issues considers issues such as ecosystem service delivery of seagrass meadows, the drivers of long-term seagrass change and the socio-economic consequences of environmental change to seagrass.

  9. Engineering paradigms and anthropogenic global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohle, Martin

    2016-04-01

    This essay discusses 'paradigms' as means to conceive anthropogenic global change. Humankind alters earth-systems because of the number of people, the patterns of consumption of resources, and the alterations of environments. This process of anthropogenic global change is a composite consisting of societal (in the 'noosphere') and natural (in the 'bio-geosphere') features. Engineering intercedes these features; e.g. observing stratospheric ozone depletion has led to understanding it as a collateral artefact of a particular set of engineering choices. Beyond any specific use-case, engineering works have a common function; e.g. civil-engineering intersects economic activity and geosphere. People conceive their actions in the noosphere including giving purpose to their engineering. The 'noosphere' is the ensemble of social, cultural or political concepts ('shared subjective mental insights') of people. Among people's concepts are the paradigms how to shape environments, production systems and consumption patterns given their societal preferences. In that context, engineering is a means to implement a given development path. Four paradigms currently are distinguishable how to make anthropogenic global change happening. Among the 'engineering paradigms' for anthropogenic global change, 'adaptation' is a paradigm for a business-as-usual scenario and steady development paths of societies. Applying this paradigm implies to forecast the change to come, to appropriately design engineering works, and to maintain as far as possible the current production and consumption patterns. An alternative would be to adjust incrementally development paths of societies, namely to 'dovetail' anthropogenic and natural fluxes of matter and energy. To apply that paradigm research has to identify 'natural boundaries', how to modify production and consumption patterns, and how to tackle process in the noosphere to render alterations of common development paths acceptable. A further alternative

  10. Validity Evidence for the Interpretation and Use of Essential Elements of Communication Global Rating Scale Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Nancy Rhoda

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. Clinical communication influences health outcomes, so medical schools are charged to prepare future physicians with the skills they need to interact effectively with patients. Communication leaders at The University of New Mexico School of Medicine (UNMSOM) developed The Essential Elements of Communication-Global Rating Scale (EEC-GRS) to…

  11. A Pioneer of Global Change Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ One summer's day in 1984, a meteorologist came all the way from the United States to Prof. Ye Duzheng, a CAS atmospheric scientist in Beijing, in the hope of establishing cooperative research into global climate change, a field unfamiliar to most scientists in the world at that time. His proposal immediately caught the interest of Ye, who was then president of the Chinese Meteorological Society and vice-president of CAS. Prof. Ye believed it to be an extremely important issue requiring sustained and collaborative attention. Already in his seventies, he found some young researchers to work with him in the field. Two decades later, global change is now recognized as a major science branch. As a pioneer of this branch, Prof. Ye was awarded the prestigious Prize of the World Meteorological Organization in 2003, and honored with China's National Supreme S&T Award in 2005.

  12. Global change and climate-vegetation classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of "global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)" which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (ⅰ) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (ⅱ) characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (ⅲ) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

  13. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Probably long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community.” Cited in sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ prometheus /archives/climate_ change...Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 73, No. 1, 2005, pp...1950,” Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol. 7, No. 8, pp. 657-677, August 2002. 9. Price-Smith, Contagion and Chaos. 10. E. Worral et

  14. Technologies for global change earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Gordon I.; Hudson, Wayne R.

    1990-01-01

    Advances in the areas of space-based observations, data/information analysis, and spacecraft/operations for the studying of global changes are discussed. Research involving systems analysis, observation technologies, information technologies, and spacecraft technologies is examined. Consideration is given to cryogenic coolers, IR arrays, laser and submillimeter sensing, large array CCD, information visualization, design knowledge capture, optical communications, multiinstrument pointing, propulsion, space environmental effects, and platform thermal systems.

  15. Global environmental change and sustainable development

    OpenAIRE

    Pardo Buendía, Mercedes

    2008-01-01

    The UC3M group of “Global environmental change and sustainable development: social trends and emerging policies” offers its experience on the following fields: • Sustainable Development. • Environmental Education. • Agenda 21. • Sustainable Cities and Sustainable Land Planning. • Environmental Impact Evaluation. • Sustainable Transport and Mobility. • Social Management and Saving Policies (energy, waste, water, noise). Within this framework, the work of this research g...

  16. National Institute for Global Environmental Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Werth, G.C.

    1992-04-01

    This document is the Semi-Annual Report of the National Institute for Global Environmental Change for the reporting period July 1 to December 31, 1991. The report is in two parts. Part I presents the mission of the Institute, examples of progress toward that mission, a brief description of the revised management plan, and the financial report. Part II presents the statements of the Regional Center Directors along with progress reports of the projects written by the researchers themselves.

  17. A DBMS architecture for global change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachem, Nabil I.; Gennert, Michael A.; Ward, Matthew O.

    1993-08-01

    The goal of this research is the design and development of an integrated system for the management of very large scientific databases, cartographic/geographic information processing, and exploratory scientific data analysis for global change research. The system will represent both spatial and temporal knowledge about natural and man-made entities on the eath's surface, following an object-oriented paradigm. A user will be able to derive, modify, and apply, procedures to perform operations on the data, including comparison, derivation, prediction, validation, and visualization. This work represents an effort to extend the database technology with an intrinsic class of operators, which is extensible and responds to the growing needs of scientific research. Of significance is the integration of many diverse forms of data into the database, including cartography, geography, hydrography, hypsography, images, and urban planning data. Equally important is the maintenance of metadata, that is, data about the data, such as coordinate transformation parameters, map scales, and audit trails of previous processing operations. This project will impact the fields of geographical information systems and global change research as well as the database community. It will provide an integrated database management testbed for scientific research, and a testbed for the development of analysis tools to understand and predict global change.

  18. Understanding Global Change: Tools for exploring Earth processes and biotic change through time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; White, L. D.; Berbeco, M.

    2014-12-01

    Teaching global change is one of the great pedagogical challenges of our day because real understanding entails integrating a variety of concepts from different scientific subject areas, including chemistry, physics, and biology, with a variety of causes and impacts in the past, present, and future. With the adoption of the Next Generation Science Standards, which emphasize climate change and other human impacts on natural systems, there has never been a better time to provide instructional support to educators on these topics. In response to this clear need, the University of California Museum of Paleontology, in collaboration with the National Center for Science Education, developed a new web resource for teachers and students titled "Understanding Global Change" (UGC) that introduces the drivers and impacts of global change. This website clarifies the connections among deep time, modern Earth system processes, and anthropogenic influences, and provides K-16 instructors with a wide range of easy-to-use tools, strategies, and lesson plans for communicating these important concepts regarding global change and the basic Earth systems processes. In summer 2014, the UGC website was field-tested during a workshop with 25 K-12 teachers and science educators. Feedback from participants helped the UGC team develop and identify pedagogically sound lesson plans and instructional tools on global change. These resources are accessible through UGC's searchable database, are aligned with NGSS and Common Core, and are categorized by grade level, subject, and level of inquiry-based instruction (confirmation, structured, guided, open). Providing a range of content and tools at levels appropriate for teachers is essential because our initial needs assessment found that educators often feel that they lack the content knowledge and expertise to address complex, but relevant global change issues, such as ocean acidification and deforestation. Ongoing needs assessments and surveys of

  19. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  20. Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use

  1. Northern peatlands in global climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laiho, R.; Laine, J.; Vasander, H. [eds.] [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Forest Ecology

    1996-12-31

    Northern peatlands are important in regulating the global climate. While sequestering carbon dioxide, these peatlands release ca. 24-39 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere. This is 5-20 % of the annual anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere. The greenhouse gas balance of peatlands may change as a consequence of water level draw-down after land-use change, or if summers become warmer and drier, as has been predicted for high latitudes after climatic warming. Subsequent emissions of methane would decrease, whereas emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide would increase. Within the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU), the research project `Carbon Balance of Peatlands and Climate Change` (SUOSILMU) has been under progress since 1990. It is a co-operative research project, with research groups from the Universities of Helsinki and Joensuu, the Finnish Forest Research Institute, the National Public Health Institute and the Finnish Environment Agency. The research consortium of this project organised a workshop entitled `Northern Peatlands in Global Climatic Change - Hyytiaelae Revisited` October 8-12, 1995. The main objective of the workshop was to review the state of the art of the carbon cycling research in natural and managed peatlands. The role of peatlands in the greenhouse effect, their response and feedback to the predicted climate change, and the consequences of land-use changes were assessed, and the future research needs were evaluated. The latest information on the role of peatlands in the atmospheric change was given in 50 posters and 4 key lectures. Results of SUOSILMU projects were demonstrated during a 1-day field excursion to one of the intensive study sites, Lakkasuo near Hyytiaelae

  2. Projections of global changes in precipitation extremes from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toreti, A.; Naveau, P.; Zampieri, M.; Schindler, A.; Scoccimarro, E.; Xoplaki, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gualdi, S.; Luterbacher, J.

    2013-01-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate; thus, it is essential to characterize their potential future changes. Here we evaluate eight high-resolution global climate model simulations in the twentieth century and provide new evidence on projected global precipitation extr

  3. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  4. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  5. Global Climate Change: Role of Livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.K. Naqvi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is seen as a major threat to the survival of many species, ecosystems and the sustainability of livestock production systems in many parts of the world. Green house gases (GHG are released in the atmosphere both by natural sources and anthropogenic (human related activities. An attempt has been made in this article to understand the contribution of ruminant livestock to climate change and to identify the mitigation strategies to reduce enteric methane emission in livestock. The GHG emissions from the agriculture sector account for about 25.5% of total global radiative forcing and over 60% of anthropogenic sources. Animal husbandry accounts for 18% of GHG emissions that cause global warming. Reducing the increase of GHG emissions from agriculture, especially livestock production should therefore be a top priority, because it could curb warming fairly rapidly. Among the GHGs, CH4 is considered to be the largest potential contributor to the global warming phenomenon. Ruminant livestock such as cattle, buffalo, sheep and goats contributes the major proportion of total agricultural emission of methane. Indian livestock system is a large contributor to GHGs and therefore also to the global warming phenomenon. Methane emission from enteric fermentation from Indian livestock ranged from 7.26 to 10.4 MT/year. In India more than 90% of the total methane emission from enteric fermentation is being contributed by the large ruminants (cattle and buffalo and rest from small ruminants and others. Generally CH4 reduction strategies can be grouped under two broad categories such as management and nutritional strategies. Although the reduction in GHG emissions from livestock industries are seen as high priorities, strategies for reducing emissions should not reduce the economic viability of enterprises if they are to find industry acceptability.

  6. Marine ecosystem responses to Cenozoic global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, R D; Turner, S Kirtland; Hull, P M; Ridgwell, A

    2013-08-02

    The future impacts of anthropogenic global change on marine ecosystems are highly uncertain, but insights can be gained from past intervals of high atmospheric carbon dioxide partial pressure. The long-term geological record reveals an early Cenozoic warm climate that supported smaller polar ecosystems, few coral-algal reefs, expanded shallow-water platforms, longer food chains with less energy for top predators, and a less oxygenated ocean than today. The closest analogs for our likely future are climate transients, 10,000 to 200,000 years in duration, that occurred during the long early Cenozoic interval of elevated warmth. Although the future ocean will begin to resemble the past greenhouse world, it will retain elements of the present "icehouse" world long into the future. Changing temperatures and ocean acidification, together with rising sea level and shifts in ocean productivity, will keep marine ecosystems in a state of continuous change for 100,000 years.

  7. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  8. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  9. The political economy of emergency and essential surgery in global health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedges, Jeremy P; Mock, Charles N; Cherian, Meena N

    2010-09-01

    Emergency and essential surgery (EES) remains a low priority on global health agendas even though a growing body of evidence demonstrates that EES is a cost-effective public health intervention and that it holds the potential to prevent a sizable number of deaths and disabilities. The inferior status of EES should be considered, in part, a political problem and subject to political analysis. This type of political economy examination has been used for other important global health issues but has not been applied to EES. By addressing political concerns and prospects, EES can be better positioned on international agendas, thus improving surgical care delivered to the poor.

  10. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  11. Global climate change economics and opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parrino, C.L.

    1996-12-31

    Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary for Global Affairs, recently stated that climate change is probably the most complicated scientific, environmental, economic, and political challenge in history. Developing an effective, flexible climate change policy with over 150 nations, diverse stakeholders and less-than-certain scientific understanding is indeed difficult with so much at stake. Specifically, what the author would like to address are some of the issues states are beginning to consider in response to the national and international discussions. The decisions at the national and international level, starting with the conference in Rio, and most recently in Geneva, will impact regulators directly. On July 17, 1996, the US negotiating team to the Framework Convention on Climate Change stated for the first time that it supports a {open_quotes}verifiable and binding post-2000 emissions target.{close_quotes} This, indeed, caught the authors attention. Until now, as you know, climate change negotiation was based on the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, whereby industrialized countries agreed to a nonbinding aim of reducing green house gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. It now appears that we may soon be committed to a legally binding emission`s reduction strategy.

  12. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  13. Global fish production and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brander, K M

    2007-12-11

    Current global fisheries production of approximately 160 million tons is rising as a result of increases in aquaculture production. A number of climate-related threats to both capture fisheries and aquaculture are identified, but we have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of this production through the food chain to human consumption. Recent changes in the distribution and productivity of a number of fish species can be ascribed with high confidence to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Future production may increase in some high-latitude regions because of warming and decreased ice cover, but the dynamics in low-latitude regions are governed by different processes, and production may decline as a result of reduced vertical mixing of the water column and, hence, reduced recycling of nutrients. There are strong interactions between the effects of fishing and the effects of climate because fishing reduces the age, size, and geographic diversity of populations and the biodiversity of marine ecosystems, making both more sensitive to additional stresses such as climate change. Inland fisheries are additionally threatened by changes in precipitation and water management. The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems. Reducing fishing mortality in the majority of fisheries, which are currently fully exploited or overexploited, is the principal feasible means of reducing the impacts of climate change.

  14. Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yongfei

    2003-01-01

    Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification. These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and low-18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1) did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.

  15. Global Sea Level Change and Thermal Contribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2009-01-01

    The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

  16. Global Change. Teaching Activities on Global Change for Grades 4-6.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geological Survey (Dept. of Interior), Reston, VA.

    This packet contains a series of teaching guides on global change. The series includes lessons on dendrochronology; land, air, and water; and island living. Included is information such as : laws of straws; where land, air, and water meet; and Earth as home. Each section provides an introductory description of the activity, the purpose of the…

  17. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined. PMID:26418127

  18. White House Conference on Global Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    President Clinton has directed the White House office on Environmental Policy to coordinate an interagency process to develop a plan to fulfill the commitment he made in his Earth Day address on April 21, 1993. This plan will become the cornerstone of the Climate Change Plan that will be completed shortly after the Rio Accord enters into force. The Office on Environmental Policy established the Interagency Climate Change Mitigation Group to draw on the expertise of federal agencies including the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisors; the Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Office of Management and Budget; the National Security Council; the Domestic Policy Council; the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Departments of Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Interior, Treasury, Commerce, and State. Working groups have been established to examine six key policy areas: energy demand, energy supply, joint implementation, methane and other gases, sinks, and transportation. The purpose of the White House Conference on Global Climate Change was to ``tap the real-world experiences`` of diverse participants and seek ideas and information for meeting the President`s goals. During the opening session, senior administration officials defined the challenge ahead and encouraged open and frank conversation about the best possible ways to meet it.

  19. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  20. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lineman, Maurice; Do, Yuno; Kim, Ji Yoon; Joo, Gea-Jae

    2015-01-01

    The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV) patterns for global warming (GW) and Climate change (CC) to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  1. Talking about Climate Change and Global Warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice Lineman

    Full Text Available The increasing prevalence of social networks provides researchers greater opportunities to evaluate and assess changes in public opinion and public sentiment towards issues of social consequence. Using trend and sentiment analysis is one method whereby researchers can identify changes in public perception that can be used to enhance the development of a social consciousness towards a specific public interest. The following study assessed Relative search volume (RSV patterns for global warming (GW and Climate change (CC to determine public knowledge and awareness of these terms. In conjunction with this, the researchers looked at the sentiment connected to these terms in social media networks. It was found that there was a relationship between the awareness of the information and the amount of publicity generated around the terminology. Furthermore, the primary driver for the increase in awareness was an increase in publicity in either a positive or a negative light. Sentiment analysis further confirmed that the primary emotive connections to the words were derived from the original context in which the word was framed. Thus having awareness or knowledge of a topic is strongly related to its public exposure in the media, and the emotional context of this relationship is dependent on the context in which the relationship was originally established. This has value in fields like conservation, law enforcement, or other fields where the practice can and often does have two very strong emotive responses based on the context of the problems being examined.

  2. The Changing Global Context of Virtual Workforce

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A. Ejiwale

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The technological revolution occurring in today’s market place has made it possible for many companies to be innovative about the way and where work is done. To get the job done, due to digital revolution, companies have turned to virtual workforce to harness the benefits of connectivity and effective information sharing among stakeholders to get the job done. More important, the success of coordinating work among a virtual workforce for profitability in a rapidly changing global environment depends on “effective indirect communication” between the leadership and the virtual workforce. This article will address the importance of effective communication as a necessary tool for the success of e-leadership, productivity improvement in virtual work environment.

  3. Global change - Geoengineering and space exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Lyle M.

    1992-01-01

    Geoengineering options and alternatives are proposed for mitigating the effects of global climate change and depletion of the ozone layer. Geoengineering options were discussed by the National Academy of Science Panel on the Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming. Several of the ideas conveyed in their published report are space-based or depend on space systems for implementation. Among the geoengineering options using space that are discussed include the use of space power systems as an alternative to fossil fuels for generating electricity, the use of lunar He-3 to aid in the development of fusion energy, and the establishment of a lunar power system for solar energy conversion and electric power beaming back to earth. Other geoengineering options are discussed. They include the space-based modulation of hurricane forces and two space-based approaches in dealing with ozone layer depletion. The engineering challenges and policy implementation issues are discussed for these geongineering options.

  4. Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Xuexiang; Chen Dianyou

    2000-01-01

    Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.

  5. Global change and marine communities: Alien species and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna [DET - Dip. di Ecologia del Territorio, Sezione di Ecologia, Universita degli Studi di Pavia, Via S. Epifanio 14, I-27100 Pavia (Italy)]. E-mail: occhipin@unipv.it

    2007-07-01

    Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special

  6. Feedbacks and Acceleration of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, William

    2014-05-01

    The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the Industrial revolution has increased the level of atmospheric CO2 by about 45 % over that of earlier times. The increasing greenhouse effect is augmented by a series of feedbacks; most have been positive, but a few are negative. The most important are 1) Slowing of the thermohaline circulation system; 2) Decreasing Atlantic to Pacific vapor transport; 3) Increasing Arctic river runoff; 4) Melting of Arctic sea ice; 5) Periodic replacement of the Arctic atmospheric high by a cyclonic low pressure system; 6) Increased exchange of waters between the Arctic and North Atlantic; 7) Lessening of the Northern Hemisphere ice-albedo feedback effect; 8) Addition of methane from melting permafrost; 9) Overall changes in the rate of ocean mixing; 10) Overall changes in vegetation cover of land; 11) Increase in the area covered by C4 vegetation; 12) Addition of nitrous oxide from agricultural practices; 13) Changes in insect populations and their effect on vegetation; 14) Wildfires; 15) Soot accumulation on snow and ice; 16) Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet; 17) Changes in the East Antarctic Ice Sheet; 18) Closing of the ozone hole over Antarctica; 19) Decay of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet; 20) Expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice; 21) Slowing of the rate of organic matter sinking into the deep ocean; 22) Decrease in insolation reaching the surface of the Earth as a result of introduction of aerosols into the atmosphere; 23) Depletion of stratospheric ozone by nitrous oxide. The global and regional effects and relative importance of many of these feedbacks are uncertain, and they may change both in magnitude and sign with time. New and unexpected mechanisms are constantly being discovered. The uncertainties and complexity associated with climate system feedbacks are responsible for the acceleration of climate change beyond the rates predicted by numerical modeling. To add to the difficulties inherent in

  7. Coordinated approaches to quantify long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Y.; Melillo, J.; Niu, S.;

    2011-01-01

    Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long-term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long-lived plants, and accumulation...... to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long-term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change....... a coordinated approach that combines long-term, large-scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long-term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high-priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high-latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain...

  8. Trends and responses to global change of China's arid regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Weixi YANG

    2009-01-01

    Ⅰ analyzed and elaborated the trends in and responses to global change in arid regions of China, from the perspective of nine variables, i.e., temperature, precipitation, river runoff, melting glaciers, water level of lakes, wind power and evaporation, vegetation, oases, and desertification. The climate and hydrology data Ⅰ citedrepresent many years of observations. Ⅰ conclude that, since the 1980s, the climate in arid regions of China has clearly changed with rising temperatures and precipitation in most areas. Wind power and the number of galestorm days have continuously decreased, which resulted in an improvement of humid conditions and increases in river discharge and water levels of lakes. Simultaneously, vegetation also has improved and the process of deserti-fication has essentially been arrested. Although there are some unfavorable developments, such as decreased river flows or flow interruptions and downstream oases have suffered from degradation, these incidental cases should not distract our attention from the generally favorable trends during the middle and late 20th century. These discordant phenomena are not consequences of climate change but rather of unsuitable human activities. Despitea substantial increase in precipitation, the level of the original precipitation was so small that any increase in precipitation was still small. As a result, none of the fundamental conditions such as a scarcity of water resources and precipitation nor the landscape of drought-ridden deserts in the arid regions will change. The vulnerability of the eco-environmental system in the arid regions will not change fundamentally either in the near future.

  9. Environmental health implications of global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Robert T.; Patz, Jonathan; Gubler, Duane J.; Parson, Edward A.; Vincent, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This paper reviews the background that has led to the now almost-universally held opinion in the scientific community that global climate change is occurring and is inescapably linked with anthropogenic activity. The potential implications to human health are considerable and very diverse. These include, for example, the increased direct impacts of heat and of rises in sea level, exacerbated air and water-borne harmful agents, and - associated with all the preceding - the emergence of environmental refugees. Vector-borne diseases, in particular those associated with blood-sucking arthropods such as mosquitoes, may be significantly impacted, including redistribution of some of those diseases to areas not previously affected. Responses to possible impending environmental and public health crises must involve political and socio-economic considerations, adding even greater complexity to what is already a difficult challenge. In some areas, adjustments to national and international public health practices and policies may be effective, at least in the short and medium terms. But in others, more drastic measures will be required. Environmental monitoring, in its widest sense, will play a significant role in the future management of the problem. (Author)

  10. Fungal symbionts alter plant responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivlin, Stephanie N; Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-07-01

    While direct plant responses to global change have been well characterized, indirect plant responses to global change, via altered species interactions, have received less attention. Here, we examined how plants associated with four classes of fungal symbionts (class I leaf endophytes [EF], arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi [AMF], ectomycorrhizal fungi [ECM], and dark septate endophytes [DSE]) responded to four global change factors (enriched CO2, drought, N deposition, and warming). We performed a meta-analysis of 434 studies spanning 174 publications to search for generalizable trends in responses of plant-fungal symbioses to future environments. Specifically, we addressed the following questions: (1) Can fungal symbionts ameliorate responses of plants to global change? (2) Do fungal symbiont groups differ in the degree to which they modify plant response to global change? (3) Do particular global change factors affect plant-fungal symbioses more than others? In all global change scenarios, except elevated CO2, fungal symbionts significantly altered plant responses to global change. In most cases, fungal symbionts increased plant biomass in response to global change. However, increased N deposition reduced the benefits of symbiosis. Of the global change factors we considered, drought and N deposition resulted in the strongest fungal mediation of plant responses. Our analysis highlighted gaps in current knowledge for responses of particular fungal groups and revealed the importance of considering not only the nonadditive effects of multiple global change factors, but also the interactive effects of multiple fungal symbioses. Our results show that considering plant-fungal symbioses is critical to predicting ecosystem response to global change.

  11. Data management and global change research: Technology and infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrissey, W.A. (Technical Information Specialist, Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC (United States))

    1993-01-01

    There is a consensus among many scientists who would perform global change research that global-scale scientific data management programs and enabling policies need to be developed and implemented concomitantly with, if not in advance of, global change research programs. They are hopeful that US Federal government policies for scientific and technical data and information management will provide timely archival, analysis, and dissemination of global change research data and will enable them to share that data with colleagues, internationally. Federal data managers believe that data management technology and infrastructure requirements for global change research programs can be met through existing or planned enhancements to systems in operation used for scientific data gathering, processing, and dissemination. Scientists are concerned, however, that because of the scope and diversity of global change research programs entirely new systems and approaches to data management may need to be devised.

  12. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  13. Atmospheric General Circulation Changes under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palipane, Erool

    The work in this thesis is mainly two-fold. First we study the internal variability of the general circulation and focus our study on the annular modes and how important it is to simulate the subsynoptic scales in the circulation. In the next major section we will try to understand the mechanisms of the forced response and the mechanisms leading towards the jet shift from transient evolution in Atmospheric general circulation models. In the first part, in an attempt to assess the benefit of resolving the sub-synoptic to mesoscale processes, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Annular Modes (AMs), in particular those related to the troposphere-stratosphere interaction, are evaluated for moderate- and high-horizontal resolution simulations with a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in comparison with the ERA40 re- analysis. Relative to the CMIP-type climate models, the IFS AGCM demonstrates notable improvement in capturing the key characteristics of the AMs. Notably, the performance with the high horizontal resolution version of the model is systematically superior to the moderate resolution on all metrics examined, including the variance of the AMs at different seasons of the year, the intrinsic e-folding time scales of the AMs, and the downward influence from the stratosphere to troposphere in the AMs. Moreover, the high-resolution simulation with a greater persistence in the intrinsic variability of the SAM projects an appreciably larger shift of the surface westerly wind during the Southern Hemisphere summer under climate change. In the second part, the response of the atmospheric circulation to greenhouse gas-induced SST warming is investigated using large ensemble experiments with two AGCMs, with a focus on the robust feature of the poleward shift of the eddy driven jet. In these experiments, large ensembles of simulations are conducted by abruptly switching the SST forcing on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation

  14. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    CERN Document Server

    Magliocca, N R; Oates, T; Schmill, M

    2013-01-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goal...

  15. U.S. Global Change Research Program Budget Crosscut

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President — U.S. Global Change Research Program budget authority for Agency activities in which the primary focus is on:Observations, research, and analysis of climate change...

  16. Managing Labor Market Changes: Essential Skills for Entrepreneurs and Intrapreneurs

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Barbara

    2014-01-01

    The United States labor market has undergone a dramatic sea change with increasing numbers of permanent freelancers and temporary workers. One in three workers has a temporary freelance job. It is estimated that, by 2020, more than 40% of the American labor force-60 million people-will be self-employed. This article discusses labor force trends,…

  17. Educational Marketing: An Essential Tool for Managing Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimun, Bonnie

    This paper focuses on the changes affecting the management, leadership, and effectiveness of community colleges. In order to create a comprehensive plan that avoids complacency and demonstrates a new vision for administering higher education, institutions must develop an entrepreneurial spirit in its mission, research the marketplace, and manage…

  18. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, P A; Graham, J B; Rosenblatt, R H; Somero, G N

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  19. Changing global capitalism and the growth of the Indian economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jørgen Dige

    The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes.......The paper argues that one of the reasons for India's continued growth is that India's economy increasingly fall in line with recent global economic changes....

  20. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE--THE TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, have led to increasing atmospheric concentrations which are at least partly responsible for the roughly 0.7% degree C global warming earth has experienced since the industrial revolution. With industrial activit...

  1. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus eConci

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed – a phenomenon referred to as ‘change blindness’. This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical layouts or as global-incongruent (random arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts. Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of global precedence in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  2. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  3. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON POVERTY AND SOLUTION SUGGESTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sermin Atak, Melike Erdogan, Asli Yoenten

    2008-09-30

    Most environmental risks including global warming are accepted as ''manufactured risks'' as well. Climate change, as manufactured risk, occurs due to human activities such as energy usage, industrialization, agricultural activities, pollination and forest damage which broke down the combination of global atmosphere in addition to nature sourced climate change which can be stated as external risk. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, has environmental and socio-economic effects in the subjects like water shortage, drought, highness in water levels, decrease in biological diversity, nutrition and food shortage. The effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on society's poverty has been classified as horizontal and vertical effect in this study. It's possible to say that horizontal effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty will come out in the way ''expansion of poverty''. It's possible to state the vertical effect of global climate change, as manufactured risk, on poverty as the ''deepening of poverty'' and ''intensifying of poverty''. Horizontal and vertical effects of climate change on poverty can not be evaluated interdependently. The multiplier effect and the cross interaction that these two effects form together bring along the process of increasing of poverty and the solution's getting difficult. Global climate change, as manufactured risk, affects all parts but the most powerful effect of it is over the poor. The studies in the direction of decreasing the poverty effect of global climate change necessitate global cooperation. National and international solutions should be considered together. In addition to global cooperation, individual, institutional, domestic and regional applications must have complementary qualities in decreasing the effects of global climate change. Global and individual studies made for

  4. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-06

    Vaclav Klaus , President of the Czech Republic, as quoted in Notes for the speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change...63 Vaclav Klaus , UN Climate Change Conference, 2. 64 Ibid., 1. 65 Aaron T. Wolf, and Annika Kramer, and Alexander...2007). Klaus , Vaclav , President of the Czech Republic. Notes for the Speech of the President of the Czech Republic at the UN Climate Change

  5. Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Riedy

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.

  6. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultu

  7. Marine viruses and global climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Danovaro, R.; Corinaldesi, C.; Dell'Anno, A.; Fuhrman, J.A.; Middelburg, J.J.; Noble, R.T.; Suttle, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface

  8. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  9. Global climate change attitudes and perceptions among south American zoo visitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luebke, Jerry F; Clayton, Susan; Kelly, Lisa-Anne DeGregoria; Grajal, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    There is a substantial gap between the scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change and the human response to this evidence. Perceptions of and responses to climate change can differ among regions of the world, as well as within countries. Therefore, information about the public's attitudes and perceptions related to climate change is essential to the development of relevant educational resources. In the present study, zoo visitors in four South American countries responded to a questionnaire regarding their attitudes and perceptions toward global climate change. Results indicated that most respondents are already highly concerned about global climate change and are interested in greater engagement in pro-environmental behaviors. Visitors also perceive various obstacles to engagement in climate change mitigation behaviors. We discuss the results of our study in terms of addressing visitors' climate change attitudes and perceptions within the social and emotional context of zoo settings.

  10. The Worldviews Network: Transformative Global Change Education in Immersive Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H.; Yu, K. C.; Gardiner, N.; McConville, D.; Connolly, R.; "Irving, Lindsay", L. S.

    2011-12-01

    own research to develop a library of immersive visualization stories and templates that explore ecological relationships across time at cosmic, global, and bioregional scales, with learning goals aligned to climate and earth science literacy principles. These experiential narratives are used to increase participants' awareness of global change issues as well as to engage them in dialogues and design processes focused on steps they can take within their own communities to systemically address these interconnected challenges. More than 600 digital planetariums in the U.S. collectively represent a pioneering opportunity for distributing Earth systems messages over large geographic areas. By placing the viewer-and Earth itself-within the context of the rest of the universe, digital planetariums can uniquely provide essential transcalar perspectives on the complex interdependencies of Earth's interacting physical and biological systems. The Worldviews Network is creating innovative, data-driven approaches for engaging the American public in dialogues about human-induced global changes.

  11. Expanding the Role of FurA as Essential Global Regulator in Cyanobacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés González

    Full Text Available In the nitrogen-fixing heterocyst-forming cyanobacterium Anabaena sp. PCC 7120, the ferric uptake regulator FurA plays a global regulatory role. Failures to eliminate wild-type copies of furA gene from the polyploid genome suggest essential functions. In the present study, we developed a selectively regulated furA expression system by the replacement of furA promoter in the Anabaena sp. chromosomes with the Co2+/Zn2+ inducible coaT promoter from Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. By removing Co2+ and Zn2+ from the medium and shutting off furA expression, we showed that FurA was absolutely required for cyanobacterial growth. RNA-seq based comparative transcriptome analyses of the furA-turning off strain and its parental wild-type in conjunction with subsequent electrophoretic mobility shift assays and semi-quantitative RT-PCR were carried out in order to identify direct transcriptional targets and unravel new biological roles of FurA. The results of such approaches led us to identify 15 novel direct iron-dependent transcriptional targets belonging to different functional categories including detoxification and defences against oxidative stress, phycobilisome degradation, chlorophyll catabolism and programmed cell death, light sensing and response, heterocyst differentiation, exopolysaccharide biosynthesis, among others. Our analyses evidence novel interactions in the complex regulatory network orchestrated by FurA in cyanobacteria.

  12. Botanic gardens science for conservation and global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donaldson, John S

    2009-11-01

    The contributions of botanic gardens to conservation biology and global-change research need to be understood within the context of the traditional strengths of such gardens in herbarium collections, living collections and interactions with the public. Here, I propose that research in conservation planning, modelling species responses to climate change, conservation of threatened species and experimental tests of global change build on the core strengths of botanic gardens. However, there are limits to what can be achieved through traditional gardens-based programs, and some botanic gardens have adapted their research to include studies of threatening processes and to monitor and verify global-change impacts. There is an opportunity for botanic gardens to use their living collections more effectively in global-change research and for them to have a role in linking biodiversity conservation with benefits derived from ecosystem services.

  13. Thermohaline circulations and global climate change. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, H.P.

    1996-10-01

    This report discusses results from the project entitled Thermohaline Circulations and Global Climate Change. Results are discussed in three sections related to the development of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), surface forcing of the ocean by the atmosphere, and experiments with the MICOM related to the problem of the ocean`s response to global climate change. It will require the use of a global, coupled ocean-atmospheric climate model to quantify the feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere associated with climate changes. The results presented here do provide guidance for such studies in the future.

  14. Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEI XiangDong; PENG ChangHui; TIAN DaLun; SUN JianFeng

    2007-01-01

    Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from individual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodologies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of disturbances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthesis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments' decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.

  15. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  16. Illinois task force on global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffin, B.S. [Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources, Springfield, IL (United States)

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to document progress in the areas of national policy development, emissions reduction, research and education, and adaptation, and to identify specific actions that will be undertaken to implement the Illinois state action plan. The task force has been tracking national and international climate change policy, and helping shape national policy agenda. Identification and implementation of cost-effective mitigation measures has been performed for emissions reduction. In the area of research and education, the task force is developing the capacity to measure climate change indicators, maintaining and enhancing Illinois relevant research, and strengthening climate change education. Activities relevant to adaptation to new policy include strengthening water laws and planning for adaptation. 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  17. International Peer Collaboration to Learn about Global Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsager, Majken; Slotta, James D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is not local; it is global. This means that many environmental issues related to climate change are not geographically limited and hence concern humans in more than one location. There is a growing body of research indicating that today's increased climate change is caused by human activities and our modern lifestyle. Consequently,…

  18. Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

  19. Technological Change, Globalization, and the Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romano, Richard M.; Dellow, Donald A.

    2009-01-01

    In early nineteenth-century England, workers now known as Luddites roamed the countryside destroying machinery that they saw as creating unemployment and upsetting their traditional way of life. They believed that the growing mechanization of production, what people would now call technological change, and the expanding volume of trade ushered in…

  20. Global warming: China’s contribution to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2016-03-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use in China have grown dramatically in the past few decades, yet it emerges that the country's relative contribution to global climate change has remained surprisingly constant. See Letter p.357

  1. Joint science academies' statement:Global response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    @@ Climate change is real There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world's climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring1.

  2. Contextualizing the global relevance of local land change observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Ellis, E. C.; Oates, T.; Schmill, M.

    2014-02-01

    To understand global changes in the Earth system, scientists must generalize globally from observations made locally and regionally. In land change science (LCS), local field-based observations are costly and time consuming, and generally obtained by researchers working at disparate local and regional case-study sites chosen for different reasons. As a result, global synthesis efforts in LCS tend to be based on non-statistical inferences subject to geographic biases stemming from data limitations and fragmentation. Thus, a fundamental challenge is the production of generalized knowledge that links evidence of the causes and consequences of local land change to global patterns and vice versa. The GLOBE system was designed to meet this challenge. GLOBE aims to transform global change science by enabling new scientific workflows based on statistically robust, globally relevant integration of local and regional observations using an online social-computational and geovisualization system. Consistent with the goals of Digital Earth, GLOBE has the capability to assess the global relevance of local case-study findings within the context of over 50 global biophysical, land-use, climate, and socio-economic datasets. We demonstrate the implementation of one such assessment - a representativeness analysis - with a recently published meta-study of changes in swidden agriculture in tropical forests. The analysis provides a standardized indicator to judge the global representativeness of the trends reported in the meta-study, and a geovisualization is presented that highlights areas for which sampling efforts can be reduced and those in need of further study. GLOBE will enable researchers and institutions to rapidly share, compare, and synthesize local and regional studies within the global context, as well as contributing to the larger goal of creating a Digital Earth.

  3. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  4. Natural resources management in an era of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sommers, W.T. [USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1993-12-31

    The international science community has issued a series of predictions of global atmospheric change that, if they verify, will have heretofore unexperienced impact on our forests. Convincing the public and their natural resource managers to respond to these effects must be high on the agenda of the science community. Mitigative and adapative responses we examine and propose, however, should stem from an understanding of the evolving role of the natural resource manager and how that role might be affected by global change.

  5. Global Connectedness and Global Migration: Insights from the International Changing Academic Profession Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGinn, Michelle K.; Ratkovic, Snežana; Wolhunter, Charl C.

    2013-01-01

    The Changing Academic Profession (CAP) international survey was designed in part to consider the effects of globalization on the work context and activities of academics in 19 countries or regions around the world. This paper draws from a subset of these data to explore the extent to which academics are globally connected in their research and…

  6. Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in

  7. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since...... and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. The report has been produced by a writing team comprised of members of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU Congress and individuals invited to give the writing team academic...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs...

  8. Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, L.; Henson, R.

    2004-05-01

    Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

  9. French space programmes related to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellous, J. L.; Ratier, A.

    The guidelines of the national and cooperative environmental programmes conducted by CNES are complementarity with third agencies' programmes, synergism between scientific and application projects, and promotion of innovative concepts likely to meet the requirements of the World Climate Research and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmes. While the on-going SPOT series is to provide imagery of land surfaces until 2000, the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric mission is being developed by NASA and CNES for launch in mid-1992 in phase with the WOCE intensive field experiments. The design study of the AVISO ocean data system, and the development on behalf of ESA of the ERS-1-dedicated CERSAT facility are consolidating the French effort in space oceanography. Two other research space missions are studied by CNES and French laboratories. BEST, whose phase A study is nearing completion, is a low-altitude, low-inclination, GEWEX-dedicated mission for the investigation of the water and energy cycle in the tropics, with a target launch date in the late 1990's. The phase A study of GLOBSAT, a more IGBP-oriented mission concept, has just been initiated. The first objective of this mission in polar orbit considered for launch around 1997, is to collect comprehensive data sets needed to document key processes related to cloud/radiation interaction, stratospheric/tropospheric chemistry and dynamics of continental and marine ecosystems. The second objective is to start monitoring long-term trends of parameters required to close global budgets of carbon and ozone. The analysis of this space mission concept is conducted in parallel with the development of instruments of opportunity to be flown onboard foreign satellites, and of airborne sensors, either precursor to space instruments or designed for process studies and validation of space data.

  10. Gardening and urban landscaping: significant players in global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niinemets, Ulo; Peñuelas, Josep

    2008-02-01

    Global warming leads to shifts in vegetation types in given temperate environments. The fastest species movement is due to the globalized supply and use of exotic plants in gardening and urban landscaping. These standard practices circumvent dispersal limitations and biological and environmental stresses; they have three major global impacts: (i) the enhancement of biological invasions, (ii) the elevation of volatile organic compound emissions and the resulting increase in photochemical smog formation, and (iii) the enhancement of CO(2) fixation and water use by gardened plants. These global effects, none of which are currently considered in global-change scenarios, are increasingly amplified with further warming and urbanization. We urge for quantitative assessment of the global effects of gardening and urban landscaping.

  11. Global Change and Regional Landscape Response and Desertification in Siberia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    V.M. PLYUSNIN; L.V. DANKO

    2011-01-01

    Climate changes and associated natural and anthropogenic processes have manifested themselves particularly clearly during the last two decades.The study of consequences of these changes has become one of the central scientific,social and political issues of our time (Pilot 2000;UNEP 2007).The study of the regional response of landscapes of Siberia to global changes is one of the fundamental tasks,aimed at ensuring the sustainable development of Siberian regions both at present time and in the future.Because in the 21 st century we should expect strong changes the humidity regime,accompanying the global warming (CCD 1994).

  12. Global imprint of climate change on marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.;

    2013-01-01

    Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available...... studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a metadatabase of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected...

  13. Effects of expected global climate change on marine faunas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fields, P.A.; Graham, J.B.; Rosenblatt, R.H.; Somero, G.N. (University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Institute of Oceanography)

    1993-10-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change is likely to have a major impact on marine ecosystems, affecting both biodiversity and productivity. These changes will, in turn, have a large impact on humankind's interactions with the sea. By examining the effects of past climate changes on the ocean, as well as by determining how shifts in physical parameters of the ocean may affect physiology, biochemistry and community interactions, scientists are beginning to explore the possible effects of global climate change on marine biota.

  14. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    Global change is expected to increasingly affect composition and functioning of soil communities. In terrestrial ecosystems, the plant-soil interactions will be of particular importance for the ecosystem response, including feed-back responses that may further increase climate change. The aim...... are able to determine effects of global change on the plant-soil system. By extraction and microscopy of nematode communities, we are able to characterize the trophic structure of a significant part of the rhizosphere community. The work compiled for this dissertation is based on field experiments...... effects. Furthermore, the plant functional type (shrub or grass) is more strongly determining the rhizosphere community structure than any global change factor. Frequent burning of prairie vegetation changes the soil community to an extent that alters the decomposition rate. Together, these results...

  15. Space-based Observation for sensitive Factors of Global Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Huadong

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global change refers to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, pedosphere and lithosphere over the past century. It is a long process with large dimensions. Factors sensitive to these changes mainly include performance factors (such as temperature and precipitation), response factors (such as eco-system, natural disasters, water resources, variations in snow and ice), and driving factors (greenhouse gases and reflection rates). Global change has caught the attention of the world. China is one of the countries exerting a profound impact on this process. In addition, it has typical and unique zones vulnerable to global change: high-altitude regions (such as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau), arid and semi-arid areas (such as farming-grazing transitional zones), long coastal zones and regions for intensive human activities.

  16. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. The report has been produced by a writing team comprised of members of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU Congress and individuals invited to give the writing team academic...... and geographic breadth. It is based on the 16 plenary talks given at the Congress as well as input from over 80 chairs and cochairs of the 58 parallel sessions held at the Congress. The names of the plenary speakers and the chairs and co-chairs of the parallel sessions can be found on the inside cover...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs...

  17. Processing and analysis of Global snow cover time series for climate change assessment

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Remote sensing data offer the opportunity to detect terrestrial snow cover in high temporal and spatial resolution. Such information is essential for various applications – ranging from small scale predictions of runoff or floods, ground water recharge and hydro power generation to large scale planetary processes connected to climate change. The processing of globally available time series of remote sensing data constitutes a challenging task due to the huge data volume and computational dema...

  18. Plant invaders, global change and landscape restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyke, D.A.; Knick, S.T.

    2005-01-01

    Modifications in land uses, technology, transportation and biogeochemical cycles currently influence the spread of organisms by reducing the barriers that once restricted their movements. We provide an overview of the spatial and temporal extent for agents of environmental change (land and disturbance transformations, biogeochemical modifications, biotic additions and losses) and highlight those that strongly influence rangeland ecosystems. Restoration may provide a mechanism for ameliorating the impacts of invasive species, but applications of restoration practices over large scales, e.g. ecoregions, will yield benefits earlier when the landscape is prioritised by criteria that identify locations where critical restoration species can grow and where success will be high. We used the Great Basin, USA as our region of interest where the invasive annual grass, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), dominates millions of hectares. A landscape-level restoration model for sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. tridentata and ssp. wyomingensis) was developed to meet the goal of establishing priority habitat for wildlife. This approach could be used in long-range planning of rangeland ecosystems where funds and labour for restoration projects may vary annually. Copyright ?? NISC Pty Ltd.

  19. A Tale of Two Minds: Psychology and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, George S.

    2010-01-01

    The American Psychological Association recently released its Presidential Task Force report on Psychology and Global Climate Change. Its principles and proposals would inaugurate a long and productive program of psychological research on climate change. But is it too little, too late? Climatologists have been growing progressively gloomier over…

  20. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I.; Bustamante, Mercedes; Kuikman, Peter; Pugh, Thomas A.M.

    2016-01-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land

  1. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  2. Globalization and post-Islamic revolution: a changing Iranian woman

    OpenAIRE

    KHAKI G.N.; MIR GOUSIA

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and its core components like modernization, secularization, democracy etc. have become most debatable issues in the post-Revolution Iran. There has been a significant impact of globalization over the changing socio-religious milieu of contemporary Iranian society. Iranian women''s position has also come under its profound influence. In the last three decades, the position of Iranian women has come through different development perspectives. While resisting the Islamization polic...

  3. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  4. Global change and terrestrial hydrology — a review

    OpenAIRE

    Robert E. Dickinson

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models are considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.DOI: 10.103...

  5. Global change and terrestrial hydrology–a review

    OpenAIRE

    Robert E. Dickinson

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models are considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.DOI: 10.103...

  6. Globalization at Risk: The Changing Preferences of States and Societies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M. Quirk

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available After long, wide trends toward freer and more integratedmarkets, peoples and ideas, reluctance to subordinate the ideals of globalization to state interests shows signs of serious erosion. Recent examples include the breakdown of international institutions, the rise in state control over energy resources and their use as diplomatic leverage, and US abandonment of the principles of globalization. The sources of these changing preferences are both ideological and utilitarian. The result is that key elements of globalization are at risk, but with unpredictable consequences.

  7. Global Monsoon and Long-Term climate Changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Pinxian

    2009-01-01

    @@ The core in the current "Global Warming" debate is how to discriminate the anthropogenic from natural warming. To answer this question, we have to know the natural trend of climate changes, an issue on which scientists' opinions diverge incredibly. Some scientists tell us that the next ice age will not come in some 50 thousands years (Berger & Loutre, 2002), but others believe that new glaciation would have been upon us several thousands years ago, should it be not postponed by early human impact (Ruddiman, 2003). Climatologists now talking on "global warming" warned about "global cooling" over 30 years ago.

  8. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  9. Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilmes, Curt A.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase

  10. Global change and biodiversity loss: Some impediments to response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borza, Karen; Jamieson, Dale

    1991-01-01

    Discussed here are the effects of anthropogenic global climate change on biodiversity. The focus is on human responses to the problem. Greenhouse warming-induced climate change may shift agricultural growing belts, reduce forests of the Northern Hemisphere and drive many species to extinction, among other effects. If these changes occur together with the mass extinctions already occurring, we may suffer a profound loss of biological diversity.

  11. Mission to Planet Earth: A program to understand global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    A description of Mission to Planet Earth, a program to understand global environmental change, is presented. Topics discussed include: changes in the environment; global warming; ozone depletion; deforestation; and NASA's role in global change research.

  12. Agile Data Management with the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Goldstein, J.

    2013-12-01

    We describe experiences applying agile software development techniques to the realm of data management during the development of the Global Change Information System (GCIS), a web service and API for authoritative global change information under development by the US Global Change Research Program. Some of the challenges during system design and implementation have been : (1) balancing the need for a rigorous mechanism for ensuring information quality with the realities of large data sets whose contents are often in flux, (2) utilizing existing data to inform decisions about the scope and nature of new data, and (3) continuously incorporating new knowledge and concepts into a relational data model. The workflow for managing the content of the system has much in common with the development of the system itself. We examine various aspects of agile software development and discuss whether or how we have been able to use them for data curation as well as software development.

  13. Global climate change: A strategic issue facing Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Womeldorff, P.J.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses global climate change, summarizes activities related to climate change, and identifies possible outcomes of the current debate on the subject. Aspects of climate change related to economic issues are very briefly summarized; it is suggested that the end result will be a change in lifestyle in developed countries. International activities, with an emphasis on the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and U.S. activities are outlined. It is recommended that the minimum action required is to work to understand the issue and prepare for possible action.

  14. Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

    2005-01-01

    with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

  15. Critical perspectives on changing media environments in the Global South

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik

    the changes in the media landscape continuously alter the power balance between state, civil society and market. At the meso level, these changes will be discussed in relation to the development of the different media and of a variety of new locally specific media environments, which create new spaces......The main aim of this article is to give a general overview and theoretically discuss how significant changes in the media landscapes in Global South countries alter existing spaces and create new spaces for political and socio-cultural exchange, thus changing the complex interrelationship between...... media and society. Knowing that media is only one of many aspects in current societal changes, the focus will be more on the interrelationship between media and society and less on other aspects like globalization, education and political reforms. At the macro level, the article will discuss how...

  16. Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milan, A.; Gioli, G.; Afifi, T.

    2015-06-01

    The relationship between migration and environmental and climatic changes is a crucial yet understudied factor influencing mountain livelihoods in the global South. These livelihoods are often characterized by high prevalence of family farming, widespread dependence on natural resources, and high sensitivity to climatic changes. Except for a limited number of empirical case studies, the literature on migration and global environmental change has not yet moved beyond case study results to address and explain global patterns and specificities of migration in mountain areas of the global South. After an introduction to the topic, the authors present a new synthesis of three field studies combining household surveys, participatory research approach (PRA) tools and key informant interviews in Pakistan, Peru, and Tanzania. This article suggests that the systematic use of transdisciplinary approaches, with a combination of quantitative and qualitative empirical methods, is the key to understanding global migration patterns in rural mountain areas of the global South. The results of our synthesis suggests that survey data should be triangulated with PRA results as well as secondary data in order to build household profiles connecting vulnerability (measured through a multidimensional index) with human mobility patterns. Such profiles can be conducive to better understand the feedback processes between livelihoods and mobility patterns both within each case study and across case studies, helping researchers to draw general lessons.

  17. Delivering Global Environmental Change Science Through Documentary Film

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodgson, K.; Byrne, J. M.; Graham, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    Communicating authentic science to society presents a significant challenge to researchers. This challenge stems from unfortunate misrepresentation and misunderstanding in the mainstream media, particularly in relation to science on global environmental change. This has resulted in a lower level of confidence and interest amongst audiences in regards to global environmental change and anthropogenic climate change discussions. This project describes a new form of documentary film that aspires to break this trend and increase audiences’ interest, reinvigorating discussion about global environmental change. The documentary film adopts a form that marries traditional scientific presentation with the high entertainment value of narrative storytelling. This format maintains the authenticity of the scientific message and ensures audience engagement throughout the entire presentation due to the fact that a sense of equality and intimacy between the audience and the scientists is achieved. The film features interviews with scientists studying global environmental change and opens with a comparison of authentic scientific information and the mainstream media’s presentation, and subsequent public opinion. This enables an analysis of the growing disconnect between society and the scientific community. Topics investigated include: Arctic ice melt, coastal zone hypoxia, tropical cyclones and acidification. Upon completion of the film, public and private screenings with predetermined audience demographics will be conducted using a short, standardized survey to gain feedback regarding the audience’s overall review of the presentation. In addition to the poster, this presentation features an extended trailer for the documentary film.

  18. Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E.

    1994-12-31

    The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey, renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.

  19. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, A.

    2009-07-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO{sub 2} uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10{sup 15} kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  20. Domestic change in the face of European Integration and Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2011-01-01

    Before the early 2000s, research on Europeanization and globalization developed largely independently of each other. Since then a limited, yet increasing, number of studies have shown an interest in investigating and differentiating between the domestic implications of European integration - known...... as Europeanization - and trends which are usually seen as having a broader global application including market liberalization, the construction of global institutions and policies. While research concerned with domestic change in the face of European integration and globalization in itself is a reaction to pressing...... epistemological concerns within the Europeanization literature, this in-the-making research agenda is also faced with a number of methodological challenges. This article deals with some of the most pressing methodological challenges we face when conducting empirical research and moving towards more comprehensive...

  1. Global Governance for Health: how to motivate political change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, D; Ottersen, O P

    2015-07-01

    In this article, we address a central theme that was discussed at the Durham Health Summit: how can politics be brought back into global health governance and figure much more prominently in discussions around policy? We begin by briefly summarizing the report of the Lancet - University of Oslo Commission on Global Governance for Health: 'The Political Origins of Health Inequity' Ottersen et al. In order to provide compelling evidence of the central argument, the Commission selected seven case studies relating to, inter alia, economic and fiscal policy, food security, and foreign trade and investment agreements. Based on an analysis of these studies, the report concludes that the problems identified are often due to political choices: an unwillingness to change the global system of governance. This raises the question: what is the most effective way that a report of this kind can be used to motivate policy-makers, and the public at large, to demand change? What kind of moral or rational argument is most likely to lead to action? In this paper we assess the merits of various alternative perspectives: health as an investment; health as a global public good; health and human security; health and human development; health as a human right; health and global justice. We conclude that what is required in order to motivate change is a more explicitly political and moral perspective - favouring the later rather than the earlier alternatives just listed.

  2. Global climate change is confounding species conservation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopowitz, Harold; Hawkins, Bradford A

    2012-06-01

    Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

  3. Environmental variation and population responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Callum R; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-07-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long-term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.

  4. Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jing X

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.

  5. From global change to Future Earth in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU; Wen-Ling; JIN; Nan; LIN; Zheng; WU; Guo-Xiong

    2015-01-01

    Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China.As a new international research initiative,Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability.The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth,the consultation project Develop ‘Future Earth in China’ for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China.To help promote the sustainability movement in China,Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences,policymakers,and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design,co-produce,and co-delivery.

  6. Global climate change: Social and economic research issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.; Snow, J.; Jacobson, H. [eds.

    1992-05-01

    This workshop was designed to bring together a group of scholars, primarily from the social sciences, to explore research that might help in dealing with global climate change. To illustrate the state of present understanding, it seemed useful to focus this workshop on three broad questions that are involved in coping with climate change. These are: (1) How can the anticipated economic costs and benefits of climate change be identified; (2) How can the impacts of climate change be adjusted to or avoided; (3) What previously studied models are available for institutional management of the global environment? The resulting discussions may (1) identify worthwhile avenues for further social science research, (2) help develop feedback for natural scientists about research information from this domain needed by social scientists, and (3) provide policymakers with the sort of relevant research information from the social science community that is currently available. Individual papers are processed separately for the database.

  7. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  8. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  9. Contemporary Grandparenting: Changing Family Relationships in Global Contexts

    OpenAIRE

    Arber, S; Timonen, V

    2012-01-01

    Grandparenting in the 21st century is at the heart of profound family and societal changes. It is of increasing social and economic significance yet many dimensions of grandparenting are still poorly understood. Contemporary Grandparenting is the first book to take a sociological approach to grandparenting across diverse country contexts and combines new theorising with up-to-date empirical findings to document the changing nature of grandparenting across global contexts. In this highly origi...

  10. Structural Changes and Global Trends in European Union Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Ishak Mesic

    2009-01-01

    The article aims at researching and presenting structural changes and global trends in distributive trade of European Union, resulted from liberalization of economic activities within the EU. During the last decades, EU trade went through deep transformation and structural changes. Traditional distributive trade has been replaced by organized and concentrated distribution. Even though, there are many developing trends which unify the EU trade, still there are some differences specific for par...

  11. Changing roles of academic societies due to globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehara, Shigeru; Aoki, Shigeki; Honda, Hiroshi

    2016-10-01

    Because of the globalization of environment around the academic society, the expected roles have changed significantly. In this short communication, we present the current situation in our international activities of the Japan Radiological Society, particularly in the academic activities and clinical practice. Establishing and reinforcing international network is one process of their promotion.

  12. Global and gene specific DNA methylation changes during zebrafish development

    Science.gov (United States)

    DNA methylation is dynamic through the life of an organism. In this study, we measured the global and gene specific DNA methylation changes in zebrafish at different developmental stages. We found that the methylation percentage of cytosines was 11.75 ± 0.96% in 3.3 hour post fertilization (hpf) zeb...

  13. Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

  14. Do global change experiments overestimate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuzinger, Sebastian; Luo, Yiqi; Beier, Claus

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades, many climate manipulation experiments have investigated biosphere responses to global change. These experiments typically examined effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, warming or drought (driver variables) on ecosystem processes such as the carbon and water cycle (response vari...

  15. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corals and coral reefs of the Caribbean and through the world are deteriorating at an accelerated rate. Several stressors are believed to contrbute to this decline, including global changes in atmospheric gases and land use patterns. In particular, warmer water temperatures and...

  16. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in or

  17. Knowledge of Global Climate Change: View of Iranian University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, Sadegh; Nejad, Zahra Pazuki; Mahmoudi, Hossein; Burkart, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses students' understanding of global climate change (GCC) and social factors affecting it. It was hypothesized that students who demonstrate pro-environmental attitudes are more likely to possess higher knowledge of GCC. It was further hypothesized that trust and personal efficiency would have a positive effect on the knowledge…

  18. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.;

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes a...

  19. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

  20. Socio-economic data for global environmental change research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Ilona; Biewald, Anne; Coumou, Dim;

    2015-01-01

    Subnational socio-economic datasets are required if we are to assess the impacts of global environmental changes and to improve adaptation responses. Institutional and community efforts should concentrate on standardization of data collection methodologies, free public access, and geo-referencing....

  1. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

    2014-03-04

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

  2. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101–606,104 Stat. 3096–3104)—“Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life”—with a focus on climate and land-use change.There are three major characteristics of this science strategy. First, it addresses the science required to broadly inform global change policy, while emphasizing the needs of natural-resource managers and reflecting the role of the USGS as the science provider for the Department of the Interior and other resource-management agencies. Second, the strategy identifies core competencies, noting 10 critical capabilities and strengths the USGS uses to overcome key problem areas. We highlight those areas in which the USGS is a science leader, recognizing the strong partnerships and effective collaboration that are essential to address complex global environmental challenges. Third, it uses a query-based approach listing key research questions that need to be addressed to create an agenda for hypothesis-driven global change science organized under six strategic goals. Overall, the strategy starts from where we are, provides a vision for where we want to go, and then describes high-priority strategic actions, including outcomes, products, and partnerships that can get us there. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystems, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy

  3. National inventory of Global Change relevant research in Norway; Nasjonal kartlegging av global change-relevant forskning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-05-01

    The Norwegian Global Change Committee has made an inventory of global change research (GCR) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2001. In lack of a rigid definition, GCR was defined as research that can be considered relevant to the science agenda of the four major international global change programmes DIVERSITAS, IGBP, IHDP and WCRP. Relevance was judged based on the objectives stated for each of the international programmes and their core projects. It was not attempted to check whether the projects had any kind of link to the programmes they were considered relevant for. The grants provided by the RCN in 2001 to GCR as defined above amounts to about 77 mill. NOK. Based on a recent survey on climate change research it is reasonable to estimate that the RCN finances between 30 and 40 % of all GCR in Norway. Accordingly, the total value of Norwegian research relevant to the four international global change programmes in 2001 can be estimated to 192 - 254 mill. NOK.

  4. Global change pressures on soils from land use and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Pete; House, Joanna I; Bustamante, Mercedes; Sobocká, Jaroslava; Harper, Richard; Pan, Genxing; West, Paul C; Clark, Joanna M; Adhya, Tapan; Rumpel, Cornelia; Paustian, Keith; Kuikman, Peter; Cotrufo, M Francesca; Elliott, Jane A; McDowell, Richard; Griffiths, Robert I; Asakawa, Susumu; Bondeau, Alberte; Jain, Atul K; Meersmans, Jeroen; Pugh, Thomas A M

    2016-03-01

    Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

  5. Psychopharmacological Treatment Options for Global Child and Adolescent Mental Health: The WHO Essential Medicines Lists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutcher, Stan; Murphy, Andrea; Gardner, David

    2008-01-01

    The article examines the World Health Organization's Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) and suggests modification for appropriate psychopharmacological treatment of child- and adolescent-onset mental disorders. The EML enlists few of the psychotropic medicines that are useful for the treatment of young people thereby limiting the…

  6. The essential toxin: The changing perception of selenium in environmental sciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenz, M.; Lens, P.N.L.

    2009-01-01

    During the last decades, the perception of selenium has undergone substantial changes. While its toxic effects were recognized causing hair and hoof loss in animals during the 1930s, its essential role in microbial, animal and human metabolism has been recognized later, i.e. with the discovery of se

  7. The essential role of expertise on natural resources in climate change Master's education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, P.; Kroeze, C.; Löhr, A.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change may critically affect natural resources that are essential for basic human needs. Water resources are undoubtedly among the most important resources in this respect. Moreover, water plays an important role in the climate system. These examples illustrate why it is important to

  8. Conceptual design of a measurement network of the global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, P.; Petäjä, T.; Bäck, J.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lappalainen, H. K.; Vihma, T.; Laurila, T.; Viisanen, Y.; Vesala, T.; Kulmala, M.

    2016-01-01

    The global environment is changing rapidly due to anthropogenic emissions and actions. Such activities modify aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, leading to regional and global climate change and affecting, e.g., food and fresh-water security, sustainable use of natural resources and even demography. Here we present a conceptual design of a global, hierarchical observation network that can provide tools and increased understanding to tackle the inter-connected environmental and societal challenges that we will face in the coming decades. The philosophy behind the conceptual design relies on physical conservation laws of mass, energy and momentum, as well as on concentration gradients that act as driving forces for the atmosphere-biosphere exchange. The network is composed of standard, flux and/or advanced and flagship stations, each of which having specific and identified tasks. Each ecosystem type on the globe has its own characteristic features that have to be taken into consideration. The hierarchical network as a whole is able to tackle problems related to large spatial scales, heterogeneity of ecosystems and their complexity. The most comprehensive observations are envisioned to occur in flagship stations, with which the process-level understanding can be expanded to continental and global scales together with advanced data analysis, Earth system modelling and satellite remote sensing. The denser network of the flux and standard stations allows application and up-scaling of the results obtained from flagship stations to the global level.

  9. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  10. Exploring Global Change In Place-Based Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosavi, S. C.

    2011-12-01

    The complexity of global climate change makes the subject challenging for the average student, particularly given the nuanced feedbacks and exceptions to the general "warming" or "drying" trend that may be experienced at the local and regional level at which most people experience geologic processes. Geoscience educators can reduce these barriers and draw in student learners by adopting a place-based approach to teaching and researching geologic principles that relate to global change. Assisting students in recognizing and understanding the geologic environment in which they live and study has the side benefit of making the potential effect of climate change tangible. This presentation will review several approaches for using place-based case studies to explore global climate change issues in large lecture, small seminar, field research and service learning environments. The special place project used in large introductory physical geology courses requires each student to select a place familiar and unique to them for an in depth study of the common course content as the semester progresses. Students are specifically tasked with identifying how their site came to be, the geologic processes that act upon it today, how the site may have been different during the last glacial advance and how global climate change (specifically warming of 3OC over 50 years) might impact the site. The concept that change has occurred at the student's site in the past, even far from glacial environments, opens students to the scale of potential anthropogenic climate change. A freshman seminar Global Warming & Climate Change - Service in Preparation for Climate Change: The Second Battle of New Orleans focused on the environmental threats to New Orleans and southeastern Louisiana resulting from regional land use decisions in the centuries before Hurricane Katrina, and the threat that global change relating to sea level rise, acceleration of the hydrologic cycle and intensification of

  11. Increasing Diversity in Global Climate Change Research for Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Rosenzweig, C.; Druyan, L. M.; Fulakeza, M.; Gaffin, S.; Austin, S. A.; Cheung, T. D.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Prince, T.; Ng, C.; Frost, J.

    2014-12-01

    Global Climate Change and the ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate are critical to the survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to climate change. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in global climate change research. This Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) initiative is based at the City University of New York (CUNY) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and is supported by NASA and NSF. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences include CUNY faculty and GISS scientists. Research topics include the Wetland Carbon Project, The Cooling Power Of Urban Vegetation, Internal Ocean Mixing, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pollution Transport and Tropospheric Ozone. Students are recruited from CUNY colleges and other colleges and universities. The program maintains an emphasis on under-represented minorities and females. Approximately sixty percent of the undergraduate students are under-represented minorities and forty percent are female. The project is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research.

  12. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

    2017-02-01

    The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

  13. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  14. Global change and carrying capacity: Implications for life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Paul R.; Daily, Gretchen C.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Matson, Pamela; Vitousek, Peter

    1989-01-01

    Determining the long-term number of people that the planet can support without irreversibly reducing its ability to support people in the future, i.e., the carrying capacity of the Earth, is an exceedingly complex problem. About all that is known for certain is that, with present and foreseeable technologies, the human population has already exceeded the capacity. The reduction in carrying capacity that can be expected to result from direct human impacts on resources and the environment and from our indirect impacts of the climate system is discussed. Global warming and modeling global change and food security are also discussed with respect to carrying capacity.

  15. Oceans-land-atmosphere interactions and global change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DileepKumar, M.

    Content-Type text/plain; charset=UTF-8 94 Oceans-Land-Atmosphere interactions and Global Change M. Dileep Kumar National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403 004. dileep@nio.org We live on land, feel the breeze and enjoy... the global climate under pressure. This has become a cause for concern internationally, but should be more to us since our monsoons could be threatened. In order to appreciate the interactions among the Earth’s surface reservoirs in relation to climate...

  16. TRENDS '90: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.); Boden, T.A.; Kanciruk, P.; Farrell, M.P.

    1990-08-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global change data. This first issue includes estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and from the production of cement, historical and modern records of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and methane concentrations, and several long-term temperature records. Included are tabular and graphical presentations of the data, discussions of trends in the data, and references to publications that provide further information. Data are presented in a two-page format, each dealing with a different data set. All data are available in digital form from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  17. Speculative Fictions for Understanding Global Change Environments: Two Thought Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Gough

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of a thought experiment, as the term was used by quantum and relativity physicists in the early part of the twentieth century, was not prediction (as is the goal of classical experimental science, but more defensible representations of present ‘realities’. Speculative fictions, from Mary Shelley's Frankenstein to the Star Wars cinema saga, can be read as sociotechnical thought experiments that produce alternative representations of present circumstances and uncertainties, and anticipate and critique possible futures. In this essay I demonstrate how two examples of popular speculative fictions, Frank Herbert's Dune (1965 and Ursula Le Guin's The Telling (2000, function as thought experiments that problematise global transitions in their respective eras. I argue that critical readings of such stories can help us to anticipate, critique, and respond constructively to social and cultural changes and change environments within nation-states that constitute, and are constituted by, global change processes and their effects.

  18. Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John K Senior

    Full Text Available In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

  19. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A; Li, Yue

    2016-05-31

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2-71.2% during 1982-2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms.

  20. Clinical significance of changes in β-adrenoreceptors in peripheral lymphocytes in patients with essential hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Methods In the present study, 69 male patients with essential hypertension at different stages were compared with a group of age-matched normotensive controls. β-adrenoreceptor maximum bound volume (Bmax) in pedpheml lymphocytes was measured by 3H-dihydroalprenolol(3 H-DHA) radio ligand binding.β-adrenoreoeptor responsiveness was determined by Salbutamol(injection). Results In patients with essential hypertension at stages Ⅰ and Ⅱ, Bmax was significantly higher (P<0.01 and P<0.001, respectively) and the chronotropic doses of Salbutamol reqaired to increase the heart rate by 30 beats/min (CD30) were significantly lower(P<0.01 and P<0.001,respectively) than in age-matched normotensive control subjects.In patients with essential hypertension at stage Ⅲ, Bmax was significantly lower and CD30 was significantly higher (both P<0.01) than those in the age-matched normotensive control subjects.Bmax was significantly higher and CD30 was significantly lower (both P<0.001) in patients with essential hypertension and with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) than that in patients with essential hypertension but without LVH. In patients with essential hypertension and heart failure, Bmax was significantly lower and CD30 was significantly higher (both P<0.001) than those in patients with essential hypertension without heart failure.Conclusions The changes of β-adrenoreceptor density and function were related to hypertension,hypertension complicated with ventricular hypertrophy,and heart failure. They may be viewed as indexes of the condition in the patients with essential hypertension.

  1. Space Superiority, Down to the Nanosecond: Why the Global Positioning System Remains Essential to Modern Warfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    fuel consumption by 5.4 billion gallons Aircraft fuel reduction Reduction of CO2 emissions by 54 million metric tons/year Disaster Relief Rescue...Colonel Gruber (BSME, North Dakota State University; MSBA, Central Michi- gan University) is the director of the Global Positioning Systems

  2. Changes in Terrestrial Water Availability under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    Under global warming, the annual range of precipitation is widening (Chou and Lan, 2012; Chou et al., 2013) and the frequency of precipitation extreme events also increases. Due to nonlinear responses of land hydrological process to precipitation extremes, runoff can increase exponentially, and on the hard hand, soil water storage may decline. In addition, IPCC AR5 indicates that soil moisture decreases in most areas under the global warming scenario. In this study, we use NCAR Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to simulate changes in terrestrial available water (TAW, defined as the precipitation minus evaporation minus runoff, and then divided by the precipitation) under global warming. Preliminary results show that the TAW has clear seasonal variations. Compared to previous studies, which do not include the runoff in the calculations of the available water, our estimates on the TAW has much less available water in high latitudes through out the year, especially under extreme precipitation events.

  3. Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

    Science.gov (United States)

    To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

  4. Global land-use change hidden behind nickel consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Nansai, Keisuke; Matsubae, Kazuyo; Tomita, Makoto; Takayanagi, Wataru; Nagasaka, Tetsuya

    2017-05-15

    Economic growth is associated with a rapid rise in the use of natural resources within the economy, and has potential environmental impacts at local and/or global scales. In today's globalized economy, each country has indirect flows supporting its economic activities, and natural resource consumption through supply chains influences environmental impacts far removed from the place of consumption. One way to control environmental impacts associated with consumption of natural resources is to identify the consumption of natural resources and the associated environmental impacts through the global supply chain. In this study, we used a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional input-output model) to detect the linkages between national nickel consumption and mining-associated global land-use changes. We focused on nickel, whose global demand has risen rapidly in recent years, as a case study. The estimated area of land-use change around the world caused by nickel mining in 2005 was 1.9km(2), and that induced by Japanese final demand for nickel was 0.38km(2). Our modeling also revealed that the areas of greatest land-use change associated with nickel mining were concentrated in only a few countries and regions far removed from the place of consumption. For example, 57.7% of the world's land-use changes caused by nickel mining were concentrated in five countries in 2005: Australia, 13.7%; Russia, 12.9%; Indonesia, 12.5%; New Caledonia, 10.4%; and Colombia, 8.2%. The mining-associated land-use change induced by Japanese final demand accounted for 19.5% of the total area affected by land-use change caused by nickel mining. The top three countries accounted for 70.6% (Indonesia: 47.0%, New Caledonia: 16.0%, and Australia: 7.7%), and the top five accounted for 82.4% (the Philippines: 7.5%, and Canada: 4.3%, in addition to the top three countries and regions).

  5. The economics of long-term global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    This report is intended to provide an overview of economic issues and research relevant to possible, long-term global climate change. It is primarily a critical survey, not a statement of Administration or Department policy. This report should serve to indicate that economic analysis of global change is in its infancy few assertions about costs or benefits can be made with confidence. The state of the literature precludes any attempt to produce anything like a comprehensive benefit-cost analysis. Moreover, almost all the quantitative estimates regarding physical and economic effects in this report, as well as many of the qualitative assertions, are controversial. Section I provides background on greenhouse gas emissions and their likely climatic effects and on available policy instruments. Section II considers the costs of living with global change, assuming no substantial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Section III considers costs of reducing these emissions, though the available literature does not contain estimates of the costs of policies that would, on the assumptions of current climate models, prevent climate change altogether. The individual sections are not entirely compartmentalized, but can be read independently if necessary.

  6. Terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change: A research strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere.

  7. Global Change Effects on Plant Chemical Defenses against Insect Herbivores

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    M. Gabriela Bidart-Bouzat; Adebobola Imeh-Nathaniel

    2008-01-01

    This review focuses on individual effects of major global change factors, such as elevated CO2, Oa, UV light and temperature,on plant secondary chemistry. These secondary metabolites are well-known for their role in plant defense against insect herbivory. Global change effects on secondary chemicals appear to be plant species-specific and dependent on the chemical type. Even though plant chemical responses induced by these factors are highly variable, there seems to be some specificity in the response to different environmental stressors. For example, even though the production of phenolic compounds is enhanced by both elevated CO2 and UV light levels, the latter appears to primarily increase the concentrations of fiavonoids. Likewise, specific phenolic metabolites seem to be induced by O3 but not by other factors, and an increase in volatile organic compounds has been particularly detected under elevated temperature. More information is needed regarding how global change factors influence inducibility of plant chemical defenses as well as how their indirect and direct effects impact insect performance and behavior, herbivory rates and pathogen attack. This knowledge is crucial to better understand how plants and their associated natural enemies will be affected in future changing environments.

  8. Shifting global invasive potential of European plants with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Townsend Peterson

    Full Text Available Global climate change and invasions by nonnative species rank among the top concerns for agents of biological loss in coming decades. Although each of these themes has seen considerable attention in the modeling and forecasting communities, their joint effects remain little explored and poorly understood. We developed ecological niche models for 1804 species from the European flora, which we projected globally to identify areas of potential distribution, both at present and across 4 scenarios of future (2055 climates. As expected from previous studies, projections based on the CGCM1 climate model were more extreme than those based on the HadCM3 model, and projections based on the a2 emissions scenario were more extreme than those based on the b2 emissions scenario. However, less expected were the highly nonlinear and contrasting projected changes in distributional areas among continents: increases in distributional potential in Europe often corresponded with decreases on other continents, and species seeing expanding potential on one continent often saw contracting potential on others. In conclusion, global climate change will have complex effects on invasive potential of plant species. The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species.

  9. Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansson, Roland

    2003-03-22

    I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

  10. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  11. Structural Change, Globalization and Economic Growth in China and India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Valli

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In their period of rapid economic growth China and India have experienced profound structural transformations. The aim of the paper is to analyze the relation between structural change, the process of globalization and economic growth in the two great Asian countries, using a highly disaggregated dataset for the 1987-2009 period. While China had a longer and more intensive productivity growth than India, the latter had a somewhat more balanced growth. Both countries registered higher within-sectors gains in productivity than between-sectors ones. Our analysis also shows that there exist important feedbacks between structural change, globalization and economic growth over time. When the reallocation of labor is large, it may positively impact on the future rates of economic growth. At the same time, however, it seems that a too rapid economic growth may hinder a smooth reallocation of labor. In both countries, new policies should be designed to favor labor movement across sectors and areas, to reduce the wage-productivity differentials and to integrate the informal sector in formal markets in India, in order to foster structural changes and enhance economic growth. If a too unbalanced economic growth has somewhat limited the extent of structural change, globalization has on the contrary promoted it. High level of export, import and FDI not only has been related to higher rates of economic growth, but also to a deeper reallocation of resources across sectors, modifying the comparative advantage and reorganizing the production.

  12. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This reveals in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that have a high likelihood and are consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of notable consistent changes calculated relative to the GCM specific natural variability. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions the likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases strongly for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube while discharge of monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  13. Global patterns of change in discharge regimes for 2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study makes a thorough global assessment of the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes and their accompanying uncertainties. Meteorological data from twelve GCMs (SRES scenarios A1B, and control experiment 20C3M are used to drive the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We reveal in which regions of the world changes in hydrology can be detected that are significant and consistent amongst the ensemble of GCMs. New compared to existing studies is: (1 the comparison of spatial patterns of regime changes and (2 the quantification of consistent significant change calculatesd relative to both the natural variability and the inter-model spread. The resulting consistency maps indicate in which regions likelihood of hydrological change is large.

    Projections of different GCMs diverge widely. This underscores the need of using a multi-model ensemble. Despite discrepancies amongst models, consistent results are revealed: by 2100 the GCMs project consistent decreases in discharge for southern Europe, southern Australia, parts of Africa and southwestern South-America. Discharge decreases are large for most African rivers, the Murray and the Danube. While discharge of Monsoon influenced rivers slightly increases. In the Arctic regions river discharge increases and a phase-shift towards earlier peaks is observed. Results are comparable to previous global studies, with a few exceptions. Globally we calculated an ensemble mean discharge increase of more than ten percent. This increase contradicts previously estimated decreases, which is amongst others caused by the use of smaller GCM ensembles and different reference periods.

  14. Preparing for Change: Challenges and Opportunities in a Global World

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Sabine

    2009-03-01

    Our world is becoming increasingly global. This may sound like a clich'e, yet it is true nonetheless, and poses unprecedented challenges for graduate education. For the new generation of researchers, teachers and professionals to be successful they must be prepared in more than the content area of their chosen field. They must also acquire proficiency in global awareness, cultural literacy, multicultural teamwork and language facility. These global skill sets form the basis for effective multicultural collaboration and will become increasingly important even for those who do not intend to study or work abroad. Knowledge has become more portable in the internet age; large data bases and reports can be accessed in real time from various locations around the globe; information is exchanged in multifaceted knowledge networks; collaborative research takes place within and outside of the traditional venue of the research university in the private sector, research institutes, and associations; research networks span multiple disciplines as progress invariably occurs at the intersection of previously discrete fields of inquiry. Global collaboration thus is no longer dependent on the physical proximity of collaborators but can take place anywhere any time. This then requires yet another set of skills, namely the ability to adapt to change, exhibit flexibility and transfer skills to a range of contexts and applications. Effective graduate education must address these realities and expose students to learning opportunities that will enable them to acquire these much needed global skills sets.

  15. Governing Global Climate Change: Past Achievements, Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ella Kokotsis

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The cumulative effects of a significantly changing climate are projected to have disastrous implications on the world’s natural habitats, and along with that, are projected to drastically increase the rate and likelihood of violent conflict globally, particularly in high-density, urban, poverty hotspots. Limiting the effects of a changing climate is thus critical in influencing multiple societal goals including equitable sustainable development, human health, biodiversity, food security and access to reliable energy sources. This paper argues that the G7/8 has led global climate governance in ways other international environmental institu­tions have largely failed to do. It has done so largely by placing climate protection at the forefront of its policy objectives, alongside economic, health, energy and security goals, and reaching consensus repeatedly amongst its leaders on the impor­tance of stabilizing emissions through energy efficiency, conservation, investment and technological innovation. Moreover, this chapter argues that the summit’s predominant capability, its constricted participation, democratic convergence and political cohesion – as well as the combined effects of global shocks – have all had positive impacts on the G7/8’s success in mitigating climate change. Following a detailed process-tracing exercise over the summit’s 40-year history in which clear surges and retreats on global climate governance are outlined, this paper concludes by assessing the G7/8’s accountability record on climate mitigation and outlines a set of prescriptive recommendations, allowing for the delivery of a more tangible, coherent, results-driven accountability process for global climate governance.

  16. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerten, Dieter; Rost, Stefanie; von Bloh, Werner; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2008-10-01

    A global vegetation and hydrology model (LPJmL) was applied to quantify the contributions of changing precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO2 content, land use and irrigation to worldwide trends in 20th century river discharge (Q). Consistently with observations, Q decreased in parts of Africa, central/southern Asia and south-eastern Europe, and increased especially in parts of North America and western Asia. Based on the CRU TS2.1 climatology, total global Q rose over 1901-2002 (trend, 30.8 km3 a-2, equaling 7.7%), due primarily to increasing precipitation (individual effect, +24.7 km3 a-2). Global warming (-3.1), rising CO2 (+4.4), land cover changes (+5.9) and irrigation (-1.1) also had discernible effects. However, sign and magnitude of trends exhibited pronounced decadal variability and differed among precipitation forcing datasets. Since recent trends in these and other drivers of Q are mainly anthropogenic, we conclude that humans exert an increasing influence on the global water cycle.

  17. The Effects of Globalization on Lifestyle Changes in Rural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sojasi Qeidari

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has different effects on human life, which are more noticeable in rural areas than in cities. Thus, the present article aims to study the effects of globalization on lifestyle in rural areas. The methodology in this research is descriptive-analytical; and to collect data in the theoretical section of the study the library method has been used and in the field study questionnaires have been employed. In the present study, the residents of Roshanabad in Gorgan, composed of 24 villages, are included; using Cochran sampling method, 265 families were selected as sample. The results of the study show that the effects of globalization can be detected in all aspects and indexes of lifestyle, and according to participants in the study, some changes are occurring in lifestyle in the rural society. The regression testing indicated a Beta coefficient of 0.328 for most changes happening in lifestyle as a result of globalization. It can be said that since Iranian villages are experiencing a transition from tradition to modernity or even postmodernity, different aspects of lifestyle are somehow mingled; young people in rural areas show a tendency toward urban lifestyle while older people prefer local rural lifestyle.

  18. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  19. Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2006-01-01

    Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

  20. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  1. Impact of global seismicity on sea level change assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Melini, D

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effect of seismic activity on sealevel variations, by computing the time-dependent vertical crustal movement and geoid change due to coseismic deformations and postseismic relaxation effects. Seismic activity can affect both the absolute sealevel, by changing the Earth gravity field and hence the geoid height, and the relative sealevel, i.e. the radial distance between seafloor and geoid level. By using comprehensive seismic catalogues we assess the net effect of seismicity on tidal relative sealevel measurements as well as on the global oceanic surfaces, and we obtain an estimate of absolute sealevel variations of seismic origin. Our results confirm that, on a global scale, most of the signal is associated with few giant thrust events, and that RSL estimates obtained using tide-gauge data can be sensibly affected by the seismic driven sealevel signal. The recent measures of sealevel obtained by satellite altimetry show a wide regional variation of sealevel trends over the oceanic surfaces, wit...

  2. How essential are Argo observations to constrain a global ocean data assimilation system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turpin, V.; Remy, E.; Le Traon, P. Y.

    2016-02-01

    Observing system experiments (OSEs) are carried out over a 1-year period to quantify the impact of Argo observations on the Mercator Ocean 0.25° global ocean analysis and forecasting system. The reference simulation assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), SSALTO/DUACS (Segment Sol multi-missions dALTimetrie, d'orbitographie et de localisation précise/Data unification and Altimeter combination system) altimeter data and Argo and other in situ observations from the Coriolis data center. Two other simulations are carried out where all Argo and half of the Argo data are withheld. Assimilating Argo observations has a significant impact on analyzed and forecast temperature and salinity fields at different depths. Without Argo data assimilation, large errors occur in analyzed fields as estimated from the differences when compared with in situ observations. For example, in the 0-300 m layer RMS (root mean square) differences between analyzed fields and observations reach 0.25 psu and 1.25 °C in the western boundary currents and 0.1 psu and 0.75 °C in the open ocean. The impact of the Argo data in reducing observation-model forecast differences is also significant from the surface down to a depth of 2000 m. Differences between in situ observations and forecast fields are thus reduced by 20 % in the upper layers and by up to 40 % at a depth of 2000 m when Argo data are assimilated. At depth, the most impacted regions in the global ocean are the Mediterranean outflow, the Gulf Stream region and the Labrador Sea. A significant degradation can be observed when only half of the data are assimilated. Therefore, Argo observations matter to constrain the model solution, even for an eddy-permitting model configuration. The impact of the Argo floats' data assimilation on other model variables is briefly assessed: the improvement of the fit to Argo profiles do not lead globally to unphysical corrections on the sea surface temperature and sea surface height. The main conclusion

  3. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  4. Global Climate Change: Federal Research on Possible Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-02-10

    conditioning systems.”20 A recent rise in one measure of poverty in the United States is argued by some to suggest that there may be more poor ...conclusions are common to several studies on possible health effects of climate change: the infirm, the elderly, and the poor may be disproportionately...Global Change Research Program, op. cit. 20 Ibid. 21 Madrick, Jeff. A Rise in Child Poverty Rates Is At Risk In U.S., the New York Times on the Web, June

  5. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  6. Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armsworth, Paul R.; Larson, Eric R.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Sax, Dov F.; Simonin, Paul W.; Blossey, Bernd; Green, Nancy; Lester, Liza; Klein, Mary L.; Ricketts, Taylor H.; Runge, Michael C.; Shaw, M. Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridor development) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.

  7. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  8. Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, C.; Lan, C.

    2011-12-01

    The annual range of precipitation, which is the difference between maximum and minimum precipitation within a year, is examined in climate model simulations under global warming. For global averages, the annual range of precipitation tends to increase as the globe warms. On a regional basis, this enhancement is found over most areas of the world, except for the bands along 30°S and 30N°, respectively. The enhancement in the annual range of precipitation is mainly associated with larger upward trends of maximum precipitation and smaller upward trends or downward trends of minimum precipitation. Based on the moisture budget analysis, the dominant mechanism is vertical moisture advection, both on a global average and on a regional scale. The vertical moisture advection, moisture convergence induced by vertical motion, includes the thermodynamic component, which is associated with increased water vapor, and the dynamic component, which is associated with changes in circulation. Generally, the thermodynamic component enhances the annual range of precipitation, while the dynamic component tends to reduce it. Evaporation has a positive contribution to both maximum and minimum precipitation, but very little to the annual range of precipitation. Even though evaporation and horizontal moisture advection are small for a global average, they could be important on a regional basis.

  9. Global microRNA expression is essential for murine mast cell development in vivo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Sun Young; Brandal, Stephanie; Kapur, Reuben; Zhu, Zhou; Takemoto, Clifford M

    2014-10-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small, noncoding RNAs that have been shown to play a critical role in normal physiology and disease, such as hematopoietic development and cancer. However, their role in mast-cell function and development is poorly understood. The major objective of this study was to determine how global miRNA expression affects mast-cell physiology. The RNase III endonuclease, Dicer, is required for the processing of pre-miRNAs into mature miRNAs. To investigate the effect of global miRNA depletion on mast cells in vivo, we generated a mast-cell-specific knock out of Dicer in mice. Transgenic mice (Mcpt5-Cre) that express Cre selectively in connective tissue mast cells were crossed with mice carrying the floxed conditional Dicer allele (Dicer fl/fl). Mcpt5-Cre × Dicer fl/fl mice with homozygous Dicer gene deletion in mast cells were found to have a profound mast-cell deficiency with near complete loss of peritoneal, gastrointestinal, and skin mast cells. We examined the in vivo functional consequence of mast-cell-specific Dicer deletion using an immunoglobulin-E-dependent passive systemic anaphylaxis murine model. Immunoglobulin-E-sensitized wild type Mcpt5-Cre × Dicer +/+ and heterozygous Mcpt5-Cre × Dicer fl/+ mice show marked hypothermia with antigen; however, homozygous Mcpt5-Cre × Dicer fl/fl mice were completely unresponsive to antigen challenge. These studies suggest a critical role for Dicer and miRNA expression for establishment of tissue compartments of functional mast cells in vivo.

  10. Mycotoxins in a changing global environment--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marroquín-Cardona, A G; Johnson, N M; Phillips, T D; Hayes, A W

    2014-07-01

    Mycotoxins are toxic metabolites produced by fungal species that commonly contaminate staple foods and feeds. They represent an unavoidable problem due to their presence in globally consumed cereals such as rice, maize and wheat. Most mycotoxins are immunosuppressive agents and some are carcinogens, hepatotoxins, nephrotoxins, and neurotoxins. Worldwide trends envision a stricter control of mycotoxins, however, the changing global environment may not be the ideal setting to control and reduce the exposure to these toxins. Although new technologies allow us to inspect the multi-mycotoxin presence in foods, new sources of exposure, gaps in knowledge of mycotoxins interactions, appearance of "emergent" mycotoxins and elucidation of consequent health effects can complicate their control even more. While humans are adapting to cope with environmental changes, such as food scarcity, decreased food quality, mycotoxin regulations, crop production and seasonality, and other climate related modifications, fungal species are also adapting and increased cases of mycotoxin adverse health effects are likely to occur in the future. To guarantee access to quality food for all, we need a way to balance global mycotoxin standards with the realistic feasibility of reaching them, considering limitations of producers and designing strategies to reduce mycotoxin exposure based on sound research.

  11. International regime formation: Ozone depletion and global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busmann, N.E.

    1994-03-01

    Two theoretical perspectives, neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, dominate in international relations. An assessment is made of whether these perspectives provide compelling explanations of why a regime with specific targets and timetables was formed for ozone depletion, while a regime with such specificity was not formed for global climate change. In so doing, the assumptions underlying neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism are examined. A preliminary assessment is offered of the policymaking and institutional bargaining process. Patterns of interstate behavior are evolving toward broader forms of cooperation, at least with regard to global environmental issues, although this process is both slow and cautious. State coalitions on specific issues are not yet powerful enough to create a strong community of states in which states are willing to devolve power to international institutions. It is shown that regime analysis is a useful analytic framework, but it should not be mistaken for theory. Regime analysis provides an organizational framework offering a set of questions regarding the principles and norms that govern cooperation and conflict in an issue area, and whether forces independent of states exist which affect the scope of state behavior. An examination of both neorealism and neoliberal institutionalism, embodied by four approaches to regime formation, demonstrates that neither has sufficient scope to account for contextual dynamics in either the ozone depletion or global climate change regime formation processes. 261 refs.

  12. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  13. Application of transition metal isotope tracers in global change research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Jinming; Thomas F. Pedersen

    2005-01-01

    High-precision isotope composition determinations using multicollector, magnetic-sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) have recently revealed that some transition metal isotopes such as those of Mo, Fe, Cu, Zn etc. can be used as biogeochemical tracers in global change research.The Mo isotope system may be useful in paleoredox investigations indicating that δ 97/95Mo in seawater may co-vary with changes in the relative proportions of anoxic and oxic sedimentation in the ocean, and that this variation may be recorded in δ 97/95Mo of anoxic sediments. The Mo continental flux into the oceans and the global Mo isotope budget can be estimated fromδ 97/95MO values. The Fe isotope composition in seawater is an important issue because Fe plays a controlling role in biological productivity in the oceans and its abundance in seawater may have substantial effect on climate changes. Iron isotope fractionations could result from bio- and abio-processes and have about 0.1% variation (δ 56/54Fe), so Fe isotopes considered alone cannot be used to distinguish the products of abiotic and biotic Fe processing in geological records. Cu and Zn isotopes are also used as biogeochemical tracers, but the researches are relatively less. This review mainly focuses on the methods for preparation, purification and determination of new isotope tracer samples, and on isotope applications in marine environmental changes.

  14. Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

  15. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  16. Change In Strategy - The Answer To Overcome Global Downturn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddhartha Ghosh

    Full Text Available In terms of overcoming the global downturn, innovative business strategy has three major dimensions namely, ‘Innovative Promotional Practices’, ‘Social and Organizational welfare’, and ‘Ethical behavior’. Fortunately most strategic dimensions in business and management are measurable so as to facilitate development ratings in order to compare and highlight the different levels of overcoming the global downturn. My research paper on the role of innovativebusiness strategy in overcoming the recession and succeeding in the postrecessionary period basically focus on the different categorical elements of business strategies and its direct or indirect impact on the medium and small scale organizations. For the better understanding of the term ‘INNOVATION’ I have carried out a letter by letter scrutinization of this golden term. It goes like this:I-IdeasN-New Plan or DesignN-Noticeable changesO-Optimum change valuationV-VarietyA-Adaptation to the New Environment/New BusinessT-Thought Process for Planned ChangesI-Ideological Developments in BusinessO-Optimization of the changesN-Numero Uno (How Innovation helps in Securing the topmostposition.In order to understand the impact of innovative business strategies n combating the downturn I have formulated four important and innovative strategies. Thesestrategies are:1. HBS Strategy (Holistic Business Strategy.2. PBS Strategy (Polymorphic Business Strategy.3. GBS Strategy (Green Business Strategy.4. CCBS Strategy. (Country-club Business Strategy.By following these innovative strategies an enterprise can reach the zeniths of success and successfully combat the global downturn.

  17. Antarctic Pliocene Biotic and Environmental Change in a Global Context Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, P. G.; Whitehead, J.

    2005-12-01

    The Pliocene was globally an interval of dramatic climate change and often compared with the environment evolving through human-induced global change. Antarctic history needs to be integrated into global patterns. The Prydz Bay-Prince Charles Mountains region of East Antarctica is a major source of data on Late Paleozoic-Recent changes in Antarctic biota and environment. This paper reviews what is known of 13 marine transgressions in the Late Neogene of the region and attempts to compare the Antarctic pattern with global patterns, such as those identified through global sequence stratigraphic analysis. Although temporal resolution in Antarctic sections is not always as good as for sections elsewhere, enough data exist to indicate that many events can be construed as part of global changes. It is expected that further correlation will be effected. During much of the Pliocene, there was less continental ice, reduced sea-ice cover, probably higher sea-level, penetration of marine conditions deep into the hinterland, and independent evidence to indicate that this was due to warmth. The Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone probably was much farther south than currently. There have been major changes in the marine fauna, and distribution of surviving species since the mid-Pliocene. Antarctic fish faunas underwent major changes during this interval with evolution of a major new Subfamily and diversification in at least two subfamilies. No palynological evidence of terrestrial vegetation has been recovered from the Prydz Bay - Prince Charles Mountain region. Analysis of origin and extinction data for two global planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphic zonations shows that the interval Late Miocene-Pliocene was an interval of enhanced extinction and evolution, consistent with an interval of more rapid and high amplitude fluctuating environments.

  18. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  19. (Meeting on human dimensions of global environmental change)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.

    1990-12-18

    Traveler attended the meeting of the Standing Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and the Scientific Symposium organized by the Standing Committee. The purpose of the meeting and symposium was to discuss the Draft Framework and the Workplan of the Standing Committee prior to its presentation to the 1990 Congress of the ISSC on November 28--30, 1990. The meetings indicate that ORNL Global Environmental Studies Center is on the international leading edge of human dimensions research, except in the area of human dimensions data systems. This weakness could be rectified by close collaboration with the efforts of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in Michigan.

  20. The Effect of Tide on the Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Xuexiang; CHEN Zhen; CHEN Dianyou; Qiao Qiyuan

    2002-01-01

    The differential rotation between the solid and fluid spheres caused by tidal force could explain the 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the world's temperature. Strong tide increases the vertical and horizontal mixing of water in the oceans, drawing the cold Pacific water from the depths to the surface and the warm water from the west to the east, where it cools or warms the atmosphere above, absorbs or releases CO2 to decrease or increase greenhouse effect and to make La Nina or El Nino occur in the global. The moon's declination and obliquity of the ecliptic affect the tidal intensity. The exchange of tidal energy and tide-generating force caused by the sun, moon and major planets makes the earth's layers rotate in different speeds. The differenti-al rotation between solid and fluid of the earth is the basic reason for El Nino and global climate change.

  1. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-04

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

  2. Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

    2013-01-31

    As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

  3. Assessing historical rate changes in global tsunami occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E.L.; Parsons, T.

    2011-01-01

    The global catalogue of tsunami events is examined to determine if transient variations in tsunami rates are consistent with a Poisson process commonly assumed for tsunami hazard assessments. The primary data analyzed are tsunamis with maximum sizes >1m. The record of these tsunamis appears to be complete since approximately 1890. A secondary data set of tsunamis >0.1m is also analyzed that appears to be complete since approximately 1960. Various kernel density estimates used to determine the rate distribution with time indicate a prominent rate change in global tsunamis during the mid-1990s. Less prominent rate changes occur in the early- and mid-20th century. To determine whether these rate fluctuations are anomalous, the distribution of annual event numbers for the tsunami catalogue is compared to Poisson and negative binomial distributions, the latter of which includes the effects of temporal clustering. Compared to a Poisson distribution, the negative binomial distribution model provides a consistent fit to tsunami event numbers for the >1m data set, but the Poisson null hypothesis cannot be falsified for the shorter duration >0.1m data set. Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is also indicated by the distribution of interevent times for both data sets. Tsunami event clusters consist only of two to four events, in contrast to protracted sequences of earthquakes that make up foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequences. From past studies of seismicity, it is likely that there is a physical triggering mechanism responsible for events within the tsunami source 'mini-clusters'. In conclusion, prominent transient rate increases in the occurrence of global tsunamis appear to be caused by temporal grouping of geographically distinct mini-clusters, in addition to the random preferential location of global M >7 earthquakes along offshore fault zones.

  4. Biodiversity and global change. Adaptative responses to global change: results and prospective. IFB-GICC restitution colloquium; Biodiversite et changement global. Reponses adaptatives au changement global: resultats et prospective. Colloque de restitution IFB-GICC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Despres, L.; Hossaert-Mckey, M.; Martin, J.F.; Pont, D.; Valero, M.; Chave, J.; Benizri, E.; Amiaud, B.; Boury-Esnault, N.; Fritz, H.; Lavelle, P.; Martin, F.; Poulet, S.; Blanchard, F.; Cheddadi, R.; Dupouey, J.L.; Hulle, M.; Michaux, J.; Souissi, S.; Bridault, A.; Dambrine, E.; Gomez, B.; Thevenard, F.; Legendre, S.; Suc, J.P.; Zeitoun, V.; Bezancon, G.; Frascaria-Lacoste, N.; Ponsard, S.; Bourguet, D.; Vigne, J.D.; Doyen, L.; Joly, P.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Garnier, E.; Lebaron, Ph.; Boulinier, Th.; Chuine, I.; Jiguet, F.; Couvet, D.; Soussana, J.F.; Weimerskirsch, H.; Grosbois, V.; Bretagnolle, V

    2006-07-01

    Global change is the consequence of the worldwide human print on ecology. The uncontrolled use of fossil fuels, the urbanization, the intensifying of agriculture, the homogenization of life styles and cultures, the homogenization of fauna and vegetation, the commercial trades, the bio-invasions, the over-exploitation of resources and the emergence of new economic powers (China, India, Brazil..) represent an adaptative dynamics of interactions which affects the overall biosphere and the adaptative capacities and the future of all species. Biodiversity is an ecological and societal insurance against the risks and uncertainties linked with global change. The French institute of biodiversity (IFB) has created a working group in charge of a study on global change and biodiversity, in particular in terms of: speed and acceleration of processes, interaction between the different organization levels of the world of living, scale changes, and adaptative capacities. 38 projects with an interdisciplinary approach have been retained by the IFB and the Ministry of ecology and sustainable development. The conclusion of these projects were presented at this restitution colloquium and are summarized in this document. The presentations are organized in 7 sessions dealing with: global changes and adaptation mechanisms; functional responses to global changes; spatial responses to global changes; temporal responses to global changes; selective answers to global changes; available tools and ecological services; scenarios and projections. (J.S.)

  5. The New Phase of the Global Policy on Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Calanter

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, a phenomenon that occurs worldwide, is one of the great challenges of our times.The scientific community has repeatedly drawn policy makers attention to the imperative need to adopt ofpreventive, mitigation and adaptation measures to what constitutes a threat to the normal course of life onEarth. Adoption and entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, with its ratification by Russia, in February 2005represented a major step forward in the global struggle against climate change. In this moment, however, theconclusion in 2012 of the commitment period for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases provided by theProtocol, and the brokenness of this period, put in front of the international community the need for furtherpolicy measures to prevent and combating climate change and its effects.

  6. Adjusting to global change through clonal growth and epigenetic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Dodd

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The earth is experiencing major changes in global and regional climates and changes are predicted to accelerate in the future. Many species will be under considerable pressure to evolve, to migrate, or be faced with extinction. Clonal plants would appear to be at a particular disadvantage due to their limited mobility and limited capacity for adaptation. However, they have outlived previous environmental shifts and clonal species have persisted for millenia. Clonal spread offers unique ecological advantages, such as resource sharing, risk sharing, and economies of scale among ramets within genotypes. We suggest that ecological attributes of clonal plants, in tandem with variation in gene regulation through epigenetic mechanisms that facilitate and optimize phenotype variation in response to environmental change may permit them to be well suited to projected conditions.

  7. Global Monitoring of Martian Surface Albedo Changes from Orbital Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geissler, P.; Enga, M.; Mukherjee, P.

    2013-12-01

    Martian surface changes were first observed from orbit during the Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter missions. They were found to be caused by eolian processes, produced by deposition of dust during regional and global dust storms and subsequent darkening of the surface through erosion and transportation of dust and sand. The albedo changes accumulated in the 20 years between Viking and Mars Global Surveyor were sufficient to alter the global circulation of winds and the climate of Mars according to model calculations (Fenton et al., Nature 2007), but little was known about the timing or frequency of the changes. Since 1999, we have had the benefit of continuous monitoring by a series of orbiting spacecraft that continues today with Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express. Daily synoptic observations enable us to determine whether the surface albedo changes are gradual or episodic in nature and to record the seasons that the changes take place. High resolution images of surface morphology and atmospheric phenomena help identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the changes. From these data, we hope to learn the combinations of atmospheric conditions and sediment properties that produce surface changes on Mars and possibly predict when they will take place in the future. Martian surface changes are particularly conspicuous in low albedo terrain, where even a thin layer of bright dust brightens the surface drastically. Equatorial dark areas are repeatedly coated and recoated by dust, which is later shed from the surface by a variety of mechanisms. An example is Syrtis Major, suddenly buried in bright dust by the global dust storm of 2001. Persistent easterly winds blew much of the dust cover away over the course of the next Martian year, but episodic changes continue today, particularly during southern summer when regional dust storms are rife. Another such region is Solis Planum, south of the Valles Marineris, where changes take place

  8. Changes in the Essential Oil Components during the Development of Fennel Plants from Somatic Embryoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, Y; Ogawa, K; Fukui, H; Tabata, M

    1987-02-01

    Quantitative and qualitative changes of essential oils during the development of clonal plants of fennel propagated through somatic embryogenesis were investigated. Although no essential oil could be detected either in cultured cells or in somatic embryoids, monoter-penes such as alpha-phellandrene and alpha-pinene were found in radical leaves of regenerated plantlets cultured on a hormone-free agar medium. The regenerated plants cultivated in the field for about one month accumulated phenylpropanoids such as estragole, anethole, and fenchone in addition to the two monoterpenes described above in radical leaves. Rich accumulations of phenylpropanoids and monoterpenes were observed in the fruits; especially the contents of estragole and anethole were much higher than in radical leaves.

  9. European network for research in global change (ENRICH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghazi, A. [European Commission, Bruxelles (Belgium). DG XII/JRC

    1995-12-31

    While approaching the beginning of the twenty first century, the scientific community is faced with the formidable tasks of monitoring and detecting, understanding and predicting changes in the Earth System and its interactions with human beings. A crucial challenge is to make scientific research results accessible and usable for those involved in the decision making process related to the concept of Sustainable Development. Major international scientific programmes under the umbrella of ICSU, such as the IGBP and WCRP, are dealing with these issues. Although there exist many well developed global change research programmes in several European countries and effective collaboration networks between research institutes, there is an urgent need for overall communication with a view to promoting wider international links ensuring complementarity, synergy and coherence. Recognizing the importance of promoting coherence in research and utilising research results for various European Union (EU) policies, the European Commissioner responsible for Science, Research and Development wrote in March 1992 to all the EU Research Ministers to propose an initiative in this domain. In a rapid response, a group of Senior Experts from the EU Member States was set up in April 1992. This Group established a Task Force to develop the concept of the European Network for Research In Global CHange (ENRICH) which was approved in July 1993

  10. Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T B; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

    2016-04-01

    Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.

  11. Andean Uplift in the Context of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffery, Louise; Poulsen, Chris; Ehlers, Todd; Insel, Nadja

    2010-05-01

    The two primary causes of South American climate change over the last 40 million years are global climate change and the uplift of the Andes Mountains. Quantifying spatial and temporal variations in climate over the duration of Andean surface uplift is necessary for interpreting palaeoclimate, erosion and palaeoelevation records from the region. This study utilises an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) to investigate the magnitude and relative importance of 1) global climate and 2) Andean surface uplift to South American climate during the last 40Ma. Combined with knowledge from the geologic record, the results constrain the controls on, and timing of, landscape development. Three different atmospheric CO2 levels (1, 2 and 4x pre-industrial levels - 280ppm) are used to simulate the range of global climate since the early Cenozoic. Surface uplift of the Andes is examined with simulations at three different Andean elevations (100%, 50% and 5% of modern heights). The importance of feedbacks associated with global climate change is assessed with additional simulations incorporating 1) no Antarctic Ice Sheet and 2) an equilibrium vegetation model coupled to the climate model. Initial results show that the elevation of the Andes exerts a much stronger control on South American precipitation than does the atmospheric CO2 level. The presence of the Andes leads to an increase in annual average precipitation rates of up to 8 mm/day at 20⁰S on the eastern flanks of the mountain range. An increase in CO2 levels from 1x to 4x pre-industrial levels increases the intensity of the global hydrological cycle with annual average precipitation rates increasing by up to 5mm/day. At 50% and 5% Andean elevation, precipitation patterns over South America are independent of atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, at 100% Andean elevation South American precipitation is sensitive to high (4x) CO2 levels. Most large-scale circulation patterns over South America are consistent

  12. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  13. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to 1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  14. Integrating comparative functional response experiments into global change research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Eoin J

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing appreciation for the importance of non-consumptive effects in predator-prey interaction research, which can often outweigh the importance of direct feeding. Barrios-O'Neill et al. (2014) report a novel method to characterize such effects by comparing the functional response of native and introduced intermediate consumers in the presence and absence of a higher predator. The invader exhibited stronger direct feeding and was also more resistant to intimidation by the higher predator. This experimental framework may be incorporated into mainstream global change research, for example, to quantify the importance of non-consumptive effects for the success or failure of biological invasions.

  15. A Decade on the Global Change EPO Trail

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzenberger, J. W.; Somerville, R. C.

    2002-12-01

    The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) offers a variety of approaches to enhance K-12 Earth systems science education through pre- and in-service educator professional development workshops, materials development, and experiences for scientists on roles they can play in education and outreach. Partnering institutions have included the Space Science Institute, NASA Earth Science Enterprise, and NSF Geosciences. Here we review approaches and lessons learned from three projects. 1) The Ground Truth Studies teacher workshops and the development of the Ground Truth Studies Teacher Handbook, funded as a cooperative agreement with NASA and other sources. This project was developed with Earth system scientists, environmental education curriculum developers, K-12 teachers and was piloted in several states. The project culminated in the development of the teacher handbook which includes primers on global change, remote sensing, elementary and secondary level hands-on activities, and resources. This publication has been utilized in conjunction with other teacher training programs or as a stand-alone resource for teachers. 2) PESTO (Pre- and In-Service Earth Science Training Opportunity) funded by NASA, a residential week-long intensive experience for pre- and in-service teachers offered for graduate and undergraduate credit. The PESTO faculty included a senior research scientist, an environmental educator/curriculum developer, and an EPO specialist. Content included an overview of global environmental change with an emphasis on climate and atmospheric chemistry and a review of online and CD resources relevant to elementary and secondary Earth systems topics. Visiting scientists engaged the group in the process of science and issues associated with science in society. 3) Workshop on K-12 Education for Geoscientists, a NSF/Geosciences sponsored project was a mini-workshop embedded within one of AGCI's interdisciplinary science meetings on a topic in global change. The

  16. Global Change Simulations Affect Potential Methane Oxidation in Upland Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankinship, J. C.; Hungate, B. A.

    2004-12-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) are higher now than they have ever been during the past 420,000 years. However, concentrations have remained stable since 1999. Emissions associated with livestock husbandry are unlikely to have changed, so some combination of reduced production in wetlands, more efficient capture by landfills, or increased consumption by biological CH4 oxidation in upland soils may be responsible. Methane oxidizing bacteria are ubiquitous in upland soils and little is known about how these bacteria respond to anthropogenic global change, and how they will influence - or already are influencing - the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Might ongoing and future global changes increase biological CH4 oxidation? Soils were sampled from two field experiments to assess changes in rates of CH4 oxidation in response to global change simulations. Potential activities of CH4 oxidizing bacterial communities were measured through laboratory incubations under optimal temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CH4 concentrations (~18 ppm, or 10x ambient). The ongoing 6-year multifactorial Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated atmospheric N deposition, and increased wildfire frequency in an annual grassland in a Mediterranean-type climate in central California. The ongoing 1-year multifactorial Merriam Climate Change Experiment (MCCE) simulates warming, elevated precipitation, and reduced precipitation in four different types of ecosystems along an elevational gradient in a semi-arid climate in northern Arizona. The high desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest ecosystems range in annual precipitation from 100 to 1000 mm yr-1, and from productivity being strongly water limited to strongly temperature limited. Among JRGCE soils, elevated atmospheric CO2 increased potential CH4 oxidation rates (p=0.052) and wildfire

  17. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2007-03-01

    There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data

  18. The GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coldewey-Egbers

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available We present the new GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV data record which has been created within the framework of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI. Total ozone column observations – based on the GOME-type Direct Fitting version 3 algorithm – from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY, and GOME-2 have been combined into one homogeneous time series, thereby taking advantage of the high inter-sensor consistency. The data record spans the 15-year period from March 1996 to June 2011 and it contains global monthly mean total ozone columns on a 1° × 1° grid. Geophysical ground-based validation using Brewer, Dobson, and UV-visible instruments has shown that the GTO-ECV level 3 data record is of the same high quality as the equivalent individual level 2 data products that constitute it. Both absolute agreement and long-term stability are excellent with respect to the ground-based data, for almost all latitudes apart from a few outliers which are mostly due to sampling differences between the level 2 and level 3 data. We conclude that the GTO-ECV data record is valuable for a variety of climate applications such as the long-term monitoring of the past evolution of the ozone layer, trend analysis and the evaluation of Chemistry–Climate Model simulations.

  19. Global Change Research: Summaries of research in FY 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This document describes the activities and products of the Global Research Program in FY 1993. This publication describes all of the projects funded by the Environmental Sciences Division of DOE under annual contracts, grants, and interagency agreements in FY 1993. Each description contains the project`s title; its 3-year funding history (in thousands of dollars); the period over which the funding applies; the name(s) of the principal investigator(s); the institution(s) conducting the projects; and the project`s objectives, products, approach, and results to date (for most projects older than 1 year). Project descriptions are categorized within the report according to program areas: climate modeling, quantitative links, global carbon cycle, vegetation research, ocean research, economics of global climate change, education, information and integration, and NIGEC. Within these categories, the descriptions are grouped alphabetically by principal investigator. Each program area is preceded by a brief text that defines the program area, states its goals and objectives, lists principal research questions, and identifies program managers.

  20. Lifespan changes in global and selective stopping and performance adjustments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Christina Van De Laar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examined stopping and performance adjustments in four age groups (M ages: 8, 12, 21, and 76 years. All participants performed on three tasks, a standard two-choice task and the same task in which stop-signal trials were inserted requiring either the suppression of the response activated by the choice stimulus (global stop task or the suppression of the response when one stop signal was presented but not when the other stop signal occurred (selective stop task. The results showed that global stopping was faster than selective stopping in all age groups. Global stopping matured more rapidly than selective stopping. The developmental gain in stopping was considerably more pronounced compared to the loss observed during senescence. All age groups slowed the response on trials without a stop signal in the stop task compared to trials in the choice task, the elderly in particular. In addition, all age groups slowed on trials following stop-signal trials, except the elderly who did not slow following successful inhibits. By contrast, the slowing following failed inhibits was disproportionally larger in the elderly compared to young adults. Finally, sequential effects did not alter the pattern of performance adjustments. The results were interpreted in terms of developmental change in the balance between proactive and reactive control.

  1. TRENDS 1991: A compendium of data on global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boden, T.A.; Sepanski, R.J.; Stoss, F.W. (eds.)

    1991-12-01

    This document is a source of frequently used global-change data. This second issue of the Trends series expands the coverage of sites recording atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) and methane (CH{sub 4}), and it updates records reported in the first issue. New data for other trace atmospheric gases have been included in this issue; historical data on nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}) from ice cores, modern records of atmospheric concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12) and N{sub 2}O, and estimates of global estimates of CFC-11 and CFC-12. The estimates for global and national CO{sub 2} emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, the production of cement, and gas flaring have been revised and updated. Regional CO{sub 2} emission estimates have been added, and long-term temperature records have been updated and expanded. Data records are presented in four- to six-page formats, each dealing with a specific site, region, or emissions species. The data records include tables and graphs; discussion of methods for collecting, measuring, and reporting the data; trends in the data; and references to literature that provides further information. All data appearing in the document are available on digital media from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

  2. Hurricanes and Climate Change: Global Systems and Local Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, J.

    2011-12-01

    With funding from NOAA, the Miami Science Museum has been working with exhibit software developer Ideum to create an interactive exhibit exploring the global dimensions and local impacts of climate change. A particular focus is on climate-related impacts on coastal communities, including the potential effects on South Florida of ocean acidification, rising sea level, and the possibility of more intense hurricanes. The exhibit is using a 4-foot spherical display system in conjunction with a series of touchscreen kiosks and accompanying flat screens to create a user-controlled, multi-user interface that lets visitors control the sphere and choose from a range of global and local content they wish to explore. The exhibit has been designed to promote engagement of diverse, multigenerational audiences through development of a fully bilingual user interface that promotes social interaction and conversation among visitors as they trade off control of global content on the sphere and related local content on the flat screens. The open-source learning module will be adaptable by other museums, to explore climate impacts specific to their region.

  3. An essay on global carbon budget approaches-Are we ready to deal with global climate changes now?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qian YE

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,a simple analysis is conducted for the purpose of addressing a simple but fundamental question,i.e.,does the world have the capability in sciences,economics and governance to deal with the global climate change today and what should we do? By pointing out that although understanding of multidimensionality and nonlinearity of global changes from both natural and social sciences has been advanced significantly,it is extremely difficult,if not impossible,to find a single solution for global climate change because of the multi-dimensionality of social components and the nonlinearity of natural elements inherent in the global climate systems.

  4. The organization of global negotiations: constructing the climate change regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Depledge, Joanna

    2005-02-15

    The basic assumption of this book is that the organization of a negotiation process matters. The global negotiations on climate change involve over 180 countries and innumerable observers and other participants, addressing enormously complex and economically vital issues with conflicting agendas. For the UN to create an effective and well-supported international regime has required enormous and very skilful organization: factors such as the role of the Chair, the choice of negotiating arenas, the rules for the conduct of business and the approach of negotiating texts are usually taken for granted, and rarely attract attention until something goes wrong. This book explores how the negotiations were organized to produce the Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Change Convention and the subsequent Bonn Agreements and Marrakesh Accords. The author draws out the lessons and implications for other intricate and far-reaching negotiations, not all of which have succeeded so far, such as the WTO trade negotiations at Seattle and Cancun. (Author)

  5. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellard, C; Leclerc, C; Courchamp, F

    2015-07-07

    Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080  . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.

  6. Estimating global chlorophyll changes over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Daniel G.; Dowd, Michael; Lewis, Marlon R.; Worm, Boris

    2014-03-01

    Marine phytoplankton account for approximately half of the production of organic matter on earth, support virtually all marine ecosystems, constrain fisheries yields, and influence climate and weather. Despite this importance, long-term trajectories of phytoplankton abundance or biomass are difficult to estimate, and the extent of changes is unresolved. Here, we use a new, publicly-available database of historical shipboard oceanographic measurements to estimate long-term changes in chlorophyll concentration (Chl; a widely used proxy for phytoplankton biomass) from 1890 to 2010. This work builds upon an earlier analysis (Boyce et al., 2010) by taking published criticisms into account, and by using recalibrated data, and novel analysis methods. Rates of long-term chlorophyll change were estimated using generalized additive models within a multi-model inference framework, and post hoc sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of results. Our analysis revealed statistically significant Chl declines over 62% of the global ocean surface area where data were present, and in 8 of 11 large ocean regions. While Chl increases have occurred in many locations, weighted syntheses of local- and regional-scale estimates confirmed that average chlorophyll concentrations have declined across the majority of the global ocean area over the past century. Sensitivity analyses indicate that these changes do not arise from any bias between data types, nor do they depend upon the method of spatial or temporal aggregation, nor the use of a particular statistical model. The wider consequences of this long-term decline of marine phytoplankton are presently unresolved, but will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystem structure, geochemical cycling, and fishery yields.

  7. Sports, Global Politics, and Social Value Change: A Research Agenda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Rensmann

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite their important role in forging, constructing and self-ascribing social identities and shaping popular culture, sports have long been a marginalized subject of social science inquiry, cultural studies, and research on international politics. Only in recent years this has begun to change. The article seeks to advance the still nascent but emerging cross-disciplinary field of research on sports and global politics in two ways: first, by addressing largely unexplored issues of sports, politics, and social conflicts, putting the spotlight on sociopolitical arenas beyond commercialized sports mega events, which have attracted most scholarly attention in contemporary research; and second, by generating hypotheses on the indirect political effects of sports cultures, in particular on the relationship between local social identities—reinforced through sports—and cosmopolitan value change. These interlinked spatial and substantive claims ground a new critical research framework and agenda: it examines sports as profoundly embedded in socioeconomic, cultural and political forms of rule and domination but also seeks to disclose sports’ emancipatory and subversive potential in advancing globalization from below.

  8. Global-Change research in Norway. National inventory of Global Change research in Norway i 2011; Global Change-forskning i Norge. En kartlegging av norsk Global change-forskning i 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    From the preface: The Norwegian Global Change (GC) Committee is appointed by the Research Council and works to strengthen the association of Norwegian researchers and research to the international GC programs and IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). As part of this effort, the Committee wanted a survey of Norwegian research activities linked to these programs. CICERO was engaged to carry out survey work in dialogue with the Research and GC Committee. The results of the survey are presented in this report. The GC programs are: World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International geosphere-biosphere program (IGBP), International program of biodiversity science (DIVERSITAS), International Human Dimension Programme Wed Global Environmental Change (IHDP). In addition to IIASA. The results of the survey will be, and is, used as a basis for further activities of the Committee in terms of incentives that can increase the internationalization of Norwegian research. Furthermore, it help to ensure good coupling to these programs in their transition to a common platform in the international Future Earth Initiative (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth).(eb)

  9. The real ecological fallacy: epidemiology and global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, Nancy

    2015-08-01

    Prompted by my participation in the People's Climate March held in New York City on 21 September 2014, as part of the 'Harvard Divest' contingent, in this brief essay I reflect on the late 20th century development of--and debates over--the necessity of ecological thinking in epidemiology, and also the still limited engagement of our field with work on the health impact of global climate change. Revisiting critiques about the damaging influence of methodological individualism on our field, I extend critique of the still influential notion of 'ecological fallacy,' including its wilful disregard for ecology itself as being pertinent to people's ways of living--and dying. Indeed, the real 'ecological fallacy' is to think epidemiologists or others could ever understand the people's health except in societal and ecological, and hence historical, context. I conclude by urging all of us, as members of the broader scientific community, whether or not we directly study the health impacts of the planetary emergency of global climate change, to step up by joining the call for universities to divest from fossil fuels.

  10. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phelan, Patrick [Arizona State University; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Otanicar, Todd [University of Tulsa; Phelan, Bernadette [Phelan Research Solutions, Inc.; Prasher, Ravi [Arizona State University; Taylor, Robert [University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Tyagi, Himanshu [Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, India

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  11. Changes in Global Silicate Weathering Feedbacks over Phanerozoic Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    The release of carbon from the solid Earth exerts a first-order control on the evolution of the planetary environment. This basic climate forcing is modulated by a host of chemical reactions at the Earth's surface, the pace of which are in turn regulated by tectonic forces. Together, these various pieces in the puzzle of the global carbon cycle have been identified for decades, but understanding of how they fit together has remained elusive and continues to be much debated. In particular, we now know the climate-dependence of silicate mineral weathering may vary as a function of denudation rate, which is related to tectonic drivers. This variation suggests that the strength of the weathering feedback may have varied in the past, with consequent implications for the past state of global climate. This work will survey and synthesize approaches to representing changes in the weathering feedback, showing that relatively simple parameterizations yield similar results as recently developed reactive transport approaches. This similarity gives confidence in applying the simple parameterizations to reconstructing changes in feedback strength in the geologic past, at least over Phanerozoic timescales, and allows inclusion of this effect explicitly in carbon cycle models.

  12. Conceptual framework for research on global change 1992-1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    For a better overall understanding of the Earth system scientists have initiated extensive international research programs dealing with the dynamics of the Earth system. These activities are characterized by their interdisciplinary, border crossing, and system orientated approach. For a long time scientists from the Federal Republic of Germany participate significantly in the conception and completion of such programs. The more and more urgent questions from politics and from the public have prompted the Federal Government under the leadership of the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology to increase these efforts. In this the Federal Government will also be supported by the Scientific Advisory Committee appointed by it, which annually presents a report on the state of global changes and their consequences. In this brochure the Conceptual Framework for Research on Global Changes is presented, which was passed by the Federal Cabinet in April 1992. It is documenting the advanced state of research, which has already been achieved in this country. At the same time, however, it is made clear that significant further steps have to be taken to contribute to the solution of the most urgent problems of the world. (orig.)

  13. Assessment of Left Ventricular Global Twist in Essential Hypertensive Heart by Speckle Tracking Imaging

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei HAN; Mingxing XIE; Xinfang WANG; Qing LU

    2008-01-01

    The left ventdcular twist was evaluated by 2-dimensional ultrasound speckle-tracking imaging (STI) in 50 patients with hypertension with normal geometric left ventricle (LV) and 45 normal subjects as control group. The mean value of LV rotation was obtained at each plane using STI. LV twist and twist velocity were defined as apical rotation/rotation rate relative to the base re- spectively. To adjust the intersubject differences in heart rates, the time sequence were normalized. The results showed that peak twist developed near the end of systole. Peak LV twist was significantly higher in patients with hypertension than normal controls (P<0.001). The diastolic untwisting mainly occurred in early diastole (≈38%). Compared with normal controls, untwisting rate (Untw R) in pa- tients with hypertension was significantly reduced (P<0.001), and untwisting half-time (UHT) was significantly delayed (P<0.05). This study demonstrated that STI has a potential ability to evaluate the early change of heart function in patients with hypertension by measuring the twist of LV.

  14. Earth's changing global atmospheric energy cycle in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yefeng; Li, Liming; Jiang, Xun; Li, Gan; Zhang, Wentao; Wang, Xinyue; Ingersoll, Andrew P

    2017-01-24

    The Lorenz energy cycle is widely used to investigate atmospheres and climates on planets. However, the long-term temporal variations of such an energy cycle have not yet been explored. Here we use three independent meteorological data sets from the modern satellite era, to examine the temporal characteristics of the Lorenz energy cycle of Earth's global atmosphere in response to climate change. The total mechanical energy of the global atmosphere basically remains constant with time, but the global-average eddy energies show significant positive trends. The spatial investigations suggest that these positive trends are concentrated in the Southern Hemisphere. Significant positive trends are also found in the conversion, generation and dissipation rates of energies. The positive trends in the dissipation rates of kinetic energies suggest that the efficiency of the global atmosphere as a heat engine increased during the modern satellite era.

  15. Self-Organizing Global Gene Expression Regulated through Criticality: Mechanism of the Cell-Fate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuchiya, Masa; Giuliani, Alessandro; Hashimoto, Midori; Erenpreisa, Jekaterina; Yoshikawa, Kenichi

    2016-01-01

    Background A fundamental issue in bioscience is to understand the mechanism that underlies the dynamic control of genome-wide expression through the complex temporal-spatial self-organization of the genome to regulate the change in cell fate. We address this issue by elucidating a physically motivated mechanism of self-organization. Principal Findings Building upon transcriptome experimental data for seven distinct cell fates, including early embryonic development, we demonstrate that self-organized criticality (SOC) plays an essential role in the dynamic control of global gene expression regulation at both the population and single-cell levels. The novel findings are as follows: i) Mechanism of cell-fate changes: A sandpile-type critical transition self-organizes overall expression into a few transcription response domains (critical states). A cell-fate change occurs by means of a dissipative pulse-like global perturbation in self-organization through the erasure of initial-state critical behaviors (criticality). Most notably, the reprogramming of early embryo cells destroys the zygote SOC control to initiate self-organization in the new embryonal genome, which passes through a stochastic overall expression pattern. ii) Mechanism of perturbation of SOC controls: Global perturbations in self-organization involve the temporal regulation of critical states. Quantitative evaluation of this perturbation in terminal cell fates reveals that dynamic interactions between critical states determine the critical-state coherent regulation. The occurrence of a temporal change in criticality perturbs this between-states interaction, which directly affects the entire genomic system. Surprisingly, a sub-critical state, corresponding to an ensemble of genes that shows only marginal changes in expression and consequently are considered to be devoid of any interest, plays an essential role in generating a global perturbation in self-organization directed toward the cell-fate change

  16. Global Change and Helminth Infections in Grazing Ruminants in Europe: Impacts, Trends and Sustainable Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hubertus Hertzberg

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Infections with parasitic helminths (nematodes and trematodes represent a significant economic and welfare burden to the global ruminant livestock industry. The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic resistance means that current control programmes are costly and unsustainable in the long term. Recent changes in the epidemiology, seasonality and geographic distribution of helminth infections have been attributed to climate change. However, other changes in environment (e.g., land use and in livestock farming, such as intensification and altered management practices, will also have an impact on helminth infections. Sustainable control of helminth infections in a changing world requires detailed knowledge of these interactions. In particular, there is a need to devise new, sustainable strategies for the effective control of ruminant helminthoses in the face of global change. In this paper, we consider the impact of helminth infections in grazing ruminants, taking a European perspective, and identify scientific and applied priorities to mitigate these impacts. These include the development and deployment of efficient, high-throughput diagnostic tests to support targeted intervention, modelling of geographic and seasonal trends in infection, more thorough economic data and analysis of the impact of helminth infections and greater translation and involvement of end-users in devising and disseminating best practices. Complex changes in helminth epidemiology will require innovative solutions. By developing and using new technologies and models, the use of anthelmintics can be optimised to limit the development and spread of drug resistance and to reduce the overall economic impact of helminth infections. This will be essential to the continued productivity and profitability of livestock farming in Europe and its contribution to regional and global food security.

  17. Defining functional biomes and monitoring their change globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgins, Steven I; Buitenwerf, Robert; Moncrieff, Glenn R

    2016-11-01

    Biomes are important constructs for organizing understanding of how the worlds' major terrestrial ecosystems differ from one another and for monitoring change in these ecosystems. Yet existing biome classification schemes have been criticized for being overly subjective and for explicitly or implicitly invoking climate. We propose a new biome map and classification scheme that uses information on (i) an index of vegetation productivity, (ii) whether the minimum of vegetation activity is in the driest or coldest part of the year, and (iii) vegetation height. Although biomes produced on the basis of this classification show a strong spatial coherence, they show little congruence with existing biome classification schemes. Our biome map provides an alternative classification scheme for comparing the biogeochemical rates of terrestrial ecosystems. We use this new biome classification scheme to analyse the patterns of biome change observed over recent decades. Overall, 13% to 14% of analysed pixels shifted in biome state over the 30-year study period. A wide range of biome transitions were observed. For example, biomes with tall vegetation and minimum vegetation activity in the cold season shifted to higher productivity biome states. Biomes with short vegetation and low seasonality shifted to seasonally moisture-limited biome states. Our findings and method provide a new source of data for rigorously monitoring global vegetation change, analysing drivers of vegetation change and for benchmarking models of terrestrial ecosystem function.

  18. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richardson, Andrew D. [Harvard College, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  19. Global perceived stress predicts cognitive change among older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz, Elizabeth; Sliwinski, Martin J; Scott, Stacey B; Hofer, Scott

    2015-09-01

    Research on stress and cognitive aging has primarily focused on examining the effects of biological and psychosocial indicators of stress, with little attention provided to examining the association between perceived stress and cognitive aging. We examined the longitudinal association between global perceived stress (GPS) and cognitive change among 116 older adults (M(age) = 80, SD = 6.40, range = 67-96) in a repeated measurement burst design. Bursts of 6 daily cognitive assessments were repeated every 6 months over a 2-year period, with self-reported GPS assessed at the start of every burst. Using a double-exponential learning model, 2 parameters were estimated: (a) asymptotic level (peak performance), and (b) asymptotic change (the rate at which peak performance changed across bursts). We hypothesized that greater GPS would predict slowed performance in tasks of attention, working memory, and speed of processing and that increases in GPS across time would predict cognitive slowing. Results from latent growth curve analyses were consistent with our first hypothesis and indicated that level of GPS predicted cognitive slowing across time. Changes in GPS did not predict cognitive slowing. This study extends previous findings by demonstrating a prospective association between level of GPS and cognitive slowing across a 2-year period, highlighting the role of psychological stress as a risk factor for poor cognitive function.

  20. Challenges to professionalism: Social accountability and global environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, David; Walpole, Sarah; Barna, Stefi

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the concept of professionalism as it relates to social change and social accountability, and expands on them in the light of global environmental changes. Professionalism in medicine includes concepts of altruism, service, professional knowledge, self-regulation and autonomy. Current dialogues around social accountability suggest that medical schools should re-orientate their strategy and desired education, research and service outcomes to the health needs of the communities they serve.This article addresses the following questions: • How do we reconcile ideas of medical professionalism with the demands of creating a more equal, just, sustainable and socially inclusive society? • What new challenges do or will we face in relation to environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, ecosystem health and climate change? • How can medical schools best teach social and environmental responsiveness within a framework of professionalism? • How do medical schools ensure that tomorrow's doctors possess the knowledge, skills and attitude to adapt to the challenges they will face in future roles?We offer ideas about why and how medical educators can change, recommendations to strengthen the teaching of professionalism and social accountability and suggestions about the contribution of an emerging concept, that of "environmental accountability".

  1. Learning English as an L2 in the Global Context: Changing English, Changing Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, Chit Cheung Matthew

    2013-01-01

    As the English language has become a global lingua franca today, it is not surprising that changes in attitudes and perceptions towards learning English in the international context have taken place at the same time. In this paper, I critically examine the notion of "integrative motivation" in the literature of second language (L2)…

  2. The role of plant functional trade-offs for biodiversity changes and biome shifts under scenarios of global climatic change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reu

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The global geographic distribution of biodiversity and biomes is determined by species-specific physiological tolerances to climatic constraints. Current models implement empirical bioclimatic relationships to predict present-day vegetation patterns and to forecast biodiversity changes and biome shifts under climatic change. In this paper, we consider plant functional trade-offs and their interactions with climatic changes to forecast and explain biodiversity changes and biome shifts.

    The Jena Diversity model (JeDi simulates plant survival according to essential plant functional trade-offs, including eco-physiological processes such as water uptake, photosynthesis, allocation, reproduction and phenology. We apply JeDi to quantify biodiversity changes and biome shifts between present-day and a range of possible future climates from two scenarios (A2 and B1 and seven global climate models using metrics of plant functional richness and functional identity.

    Our results show (i a significant biodiversity loss in the tropics, (ii an increase in biodiversity at mid and high latitudes, and (iii a poleward shift of biomes. While these results are consistent with the findings of empirical approaches, we are able to explain them in terms of the plant functional trade-offs involved in the allocation, metabolic and reproduction strategies of plants.

    We conclude that general aspects of plant physiological tolerances can be derived from plant functional trade-offs, which may provide a useful process- and trait-based alternative to bioclimatic relationships in order to address questions about the causes of biodiversity changes and biome shifts.

  3. Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

    2006-01-01

    Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

  4. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  5. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-01-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

  6. Ways to Include Global Climate Change in Courses for Prospective Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zee, Emily; Grobart, Emma; Roberts-Harris, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    What responsibility do science teacher educators have for engaging students in learning about global climate change in courses? How can the topic of global climate change be added to an already packed course curriculum? The authors have begun assembling instructional resources and learning ways others have incorporated global climate change in…

  7. Global compilation of coastline change at river mouths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aadland, Tore; Helland-Hansen, William

    2016-04-01

    We are using Google Earth Engine to analyze Landsat images to create a global compilation of coastline change at river mouths in order to develop scaling relationships between catchment properties and shoreline behaviour. Our main motivation for doing this is to better understand the rates at which shallowing upward successions of deltaic successions are formed. We are also interested in getting an insight into the impact of climate change and human activity on modern shorelines. Google Earth Engine is a platform that offers simple selection of relevant data from an extensive catalog of geospatial data and the tools to analyse it efficiently. We have used Google Earth Engine to select and analyze temporally and geographically bounded sets of Landsat images covering modern deltas included in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database. The part of the shoreline sampled for each delta has been manually defined. The areas depicted in these image sets have been classified as land or water by thresholding a calibrated Modified Normalized Water Index. By representing land and water as 1.0 and 0 respectively and averaging image sets of sufficient size we have generated rasters quantifying the probability of an area being classified as land. The calculated probabilities reflect variation in the shoreline position; in particular, it minimizes the impact of short term-variations produced by tides. The net change in the land area of deltas can be estimated by comparing how the probability changes between image sets spanning different time periods. We have estimated the land area change that occurred from 2000 to 2014 at more than 130 deltas with catchment areas ranging from 470 to 6300000 sqkm. Log-log plots of the land area change of these deltas against their respective catchment properties in the Milliman and Farnsworth 2010 database indicate that the rate of land area change correlates with catchment size and discharge. Useful interpretation of the data requires that we

  8. Modeling the biophysical impacts of global change in mountain biosphere reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugmann, H.K.M.; Bjornsen, F. Ewert; Haeberli, W.; Guisan, A.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Kaab, A.

    2007-01-01

    Mountains and mountain societies provide a wide range of goods and services to humanity, but they are particularly sensitive to the effects of global environmental change. Thus, the definition of appropriate management regimes that maintain the multiple functions of mountain regions in a time of greatly changing climatic, economic, and societal drivers constitutes a significant challenge. Management decisions must be based on a sound understanding of the future dynamics of these systems. The present article reviews the elements required for an integrated effort to project the impacts of global change on mountain regions, and recommends tools that can be used at 3 scientific levels (essential, improved, and optimum). The proposed strategy is evaluated with respect to UNESCO's network of Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs), with the intention of implementing it in other mountain regions as well. First, methods for generating scenarios of key drivers of global change are reviewed, including land use/land cover and climate change. This is followed by a brief review of the models available for projecting the impacts of these scenarios on (1) cryospheric systems, (2) ecosystem structure and diversity, and (3) ecosystem functions such as carbon and water relations. Finally, the cross-cutting role of remote sensing techniques is evaluated with respect to both monitoring and modeling efforts. We conclude that a broad range of techniques is available for both scenario generation and impact assessments, many of which can be implemented without much capacity building across many or even most MBRs. However, to foster implementation of the proposed strategy, further efforts are required to establish partnerships between scientists and resource managers in mountain areas.

  9. European network infrastructures of observatories for terrestrial Global Change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H.; Lehning, M.

    2009-04-01

    The earth's climate is significantly changing (e.g. IPCC, 2007) and thus directly affecting the terrestrial systems. The number and intensity hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are continually increasing, resulting in major economical and social impacts. Furthermore, the land cover in Europe has been modified fundamentally by conversions for agriculture, forest and for other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Additionally, water resources are more than ever used for human development, especially as a key resource for agricultural and industrial activities. As a special case, the mountains of the world are of significant importance in terms of water resources supply, biodiversity, economy, agriculture, traffic and recreation but particularly vulnerable to environmental change. The Alps are unique because of the pronounced small scale variability they contain, the high population density they support and their central position in Europe. The Alps build a single coherent physical and natural environment, artificially cut by national borders. The scientific community and governmental bodies have responded to these environmental changes by performing dedicated experiments and by establishing environmental research networks to monitor, analyse and predict the impact of Global Change on different terrestrial systems of the Earths' environment. Several European network infrastructures for terrestrial Global Change research are presently immerging or upgrading, such as ICOS, ANAEE, LifeWatch or LTER-Europe. However, the strongest existing networks are still operating on a regional or national level and the historical growth of such networks resulted in a very heterogeneous landscape of observation networks. We propose therefore the establishment of two complementary networks: The NetwOrk of Hydrological observAtories, NOHA. NOHA aims to promote the sustainable management of water resources in Europe, to support the prediction of

  10. Global change accelerates carbon assimilation by a wetland ecosystem engineer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S.; Hager, Rachel N.; Megonigal, J. Patrick; Mozdzer, Thomas J.

    2015-11-01

    The primary productivity of coastal wetlands is changing dramatically in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and invasions by novel species, potentially altering their ecosystem services and resilience to sea level rise. In order to determine how these interacting global change factors will affect coastal wetland productivity, we quantified growing-season carbon assimilation (≈gross primary productivity, or GPP) and carbon retained in living plant biomass (≈net primary productivity, or NPP) of North American mid-Atlantic saltmarshes invaded by Phragmites australis (common reed) under four treatment conditions: two levels of CO2 (ambient and +300 ppm) crossed with two levels of N (0 and 25 g N added m-2 yr-1). For GPP, we combined descriptions of canopy structure and leaf-level photosynthesis in a simulation model, using empirical data from an open-top chamber field study. Under ambient CO2 and low N loading (i.e., the Control), we determined GPP to be 1.66 ± 0.05 kg C m-2 yr-1 at a typical Phragmites stand density. Individually, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 44 and 60%, respectively. Changes under N enrichment came largely from stimulation to carbon assimilation early and late in the growing season, while changes from CO2 came from stimulation during the early and mid-growing season. In combination, elevated CO2 and N enrichment increased GPP by 95% over the Control, yielding 3.24 ± 0.08 kg C m-2 yr-1. We used biomass data to calculate NPP, and determined that it represented 44%-60% of GPP, with global change conditions decreasing carbon retention compared to the Control. Our results indicate that Phragmites invasions in eutrophied saltmarshes are driven, in part, by extended phenology yielding 3.1× greater NPP than native marsh. Further, we can expect elevated CO2 to amplify Phragmites productivity throughout the growing season, with potential implications including accelerated spread

  11. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell; McMahon, Gerard; Raye Nilius,; Mike Bryant,; Dave Case,; Martin, Julien; Wood, Nathan J.; Laura Taylor,

    2015-01-01

    National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge). The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1) efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2) develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of scale and suggested

  12. Global change and conservation triage on National Wildlife Refuges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred A. Johnson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a values-focused approach to base management decisions on the resource objectives of land managers, as well as those of stakeholders who may benefit from the goods and services produced by a refuge. Two insights that emerged from our workshops were a conspicuous mismatch between the scale at which management can influence outcomes and the scale of environmental processes, and the need to consider objectives related to ecosystem goods and services that traditionally have not been explicitly considered by refuges (e.g., protection from storm surge. The broadening of objectives complicates the decision-making process, but also provides opportunities for collaboration with stakeholders who may have agendas different from those of the refuge, as well as an opportunity for addressing problems across scales. From a practical perspective, we recognized the need to (1 efficiently allocate limited staff time and budgets for short-term management of existing programs and resources under the current refuge design and (2 develop long-term priorities for acquiring or protecting new land/habitat to supplement or replace the existing refuge footprint and thus sustain refuge values as the system evolves over time. Structuring the decision-making problem in this manner facilitated a better understanding of the issues of

  13. Time for a reality check on global climate change policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Keefe, W.F.

    1995-12-31

    Right now no one knows enough about global warming to advocate with certainty the kinds of actions that could jeopardize our economic well being -- and the economic aspirations of developing countries. That doesn`t mean no action, which is usually described perjoratively and erroneously as business as usual. It does mean actions must be based on facts, not misperceptions and myths. It does mean a mindset that reexamines, rethinks and changes course based on new knowledge. In short, I am advocating a reality check on the process based on the political, scientific and economic realities. Each of these realities has an important role in determining how we respond to the global warming threat. Our goal should be to identify actions that do the least damage to material well-being and that preserve the path to a better way of life, especially for the developing nations. What we have instead is a process driven by political gamesmanship that will devolve into beggar the neighbor policies reminiscent of 18th century mercantilism.

  14. B\\"o\\"ogg Bang drives global climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Brennwald, M S; Kipfer, R

    2011-01-01

    The B\\"o\\"ogg is a large model of a snowman, constructed of inflammable materials and filled with explosives. During the traditional festival of Sechsel\\"auten, which takes place each spring in Zurich, Switzerland, the B\\"o\\"ogg is placed atop a wooden pyre, which is set alight. According to popular legend, the time that elapses until the B\\"o\\"ogg's head explodes (the "head-bang" time) is said to give a rough forecast of local weather conditions prevailing during the following summer. However, recent research has questioned the validity of this prediction. To study the B\\"o\\"ogg's predictive powers, we analyzed the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time record from 1965-2010 within the context of global climate change. Our analysis shows that the B\\"o\\"ogg head-bang time is a good predictor not of short-term local weather, as might be expected from the legend, but of the behavior of the entire global climate system.

  15. Food security in the context of global environmental change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.

    1993-11-01

    United Nations predictions and other sources indicate that world population could grow to 8.5 billion by 2025 (Keyfitz 1989) and 11 billion by the end of the coming century (UNFPA 1990). As new information becomes available on the effectiveness of population control programs, the rise of virulent diseases and other factors, these numbers change--sometimes smaller, sometimes larger still. Whatever the numbers actually turn out to be, global agricultural production will have to increase several-fold from present levels to feed and clothe the growing population and to improve worldwide standards of nutrition. The capacity of global agriculture to ensure food security through increased and sustained agricultural production depends on our ability to manage, conserve and in some cases increase the resource base available to the industry of agriculture. The resources that underpin agriculture are land, water and genetic diversity. The first two of these are the subject of this paper. Genetic diversity is the subject of another paper in this volume.

  16. Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boag, Brian; Ellison, Amy R.; Morgan, Eric R.; Murray, Kris; Pascoe, Emily L.; Sait, Steven M.; Booth, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of ‘system changes’ (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host–parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’. PMID:28289256

  17. Buffer Capacity, Ecosystem Feedbacks, and Seawater Chemistry under Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert J. Toonen

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification (OA results in reduced seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag, but also reduced seawater buffer capacity. As buffer capacity decreases, diel variation in seawater chemistry increases. However, a variety of ecosystem feedbacks can modulate changes in both average seawater chemistry and diel seawater chemistry variation. Here we model these effects for a coastal, reef flat ecosystem. We show that an increase in offshore pCO2 and temperature (to 900 µatm and + 3 °C can increase diel pH variation by as much as a factor of 2.5 and can increase diel pCO2 variation by a factor of 4.6, depending on ecosystem feedbacks and seawater residence time. Importantly, these effects are different between day and night. With increasing seawater residence time and increasing feedback intensity, daytime seawater chemistry becomes more similar to present-day conditions while nighttime seawater chemistry becomes less similar to present-day conditions. Recent studies suggest that carbonate chemistry variation itself, independent of the average chemistry conditions, can have important effects on marine organisms and ecosystem processes. Better constraining ecosystem feedbacks under global change will improve projections of coastal water chemistry, but this study shows the importance of considering changes in both average carbonate chemistry and diel chemistry variation for organisms and ecosystems.

  18. Buffer capacity, ecosystem feedbacks, and seawater chemistry under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, C. P.; Thomas, F. I.; Atkinson, M. J.; Jokiel, P. L.; Onuma, M. A.; Kaku, N.; Toonen, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    Ocean acidification (OA) results in reduced seawater pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), but also reduced seawater buffer capacity. As buffer capacity decreases, diel variation in seawater chemistry increases. However, a variety of ecosystem feedbacks can modulate changes in both average seawater chemistry and diel seawater chemistry variation. Here we model these effects for a coastal, reef flat ecosystem. We show that an increase in offshore pCO2 and temperature (to 900 μatm and +3°C) can increase diel pH variation by as much as a factor of 2.5 and can increase diel pCO2 variation by a factor of 4.6, depending on ecosystem feedbacks and seawater residence time. Importantly, these effects are different between day and night. With increasing seawater residence time and increasing feedback intensity, daytime seawater chemistry becomes more similar to present-day conditions while nighttime seawater chemistry becomes less similar to present-day conditions. Better constraining ecosystem feedbacks under global change will improve projections of coastal water chemistry, but this study shows the importance of considering changes in both average carbonate chemistry and diel chemistry variation for organisms and ecosystems. Further, we will discuss our recent work examining the effects of diel seawater chemistry variation on coral calcification rates.

  19. The International Opportunities Fund for global change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killeen, Tim; Uhle, Maria; van der Pluijm, Ben

    2012-07-01

    Earthquakes, floods, and weather extremes are among a range of societal hazards that are increasingly studied by national and international researchers, but the absence of international collaboration and coordination is increasingly leading to inefficiencies and lost opportunities. The world's major funders of global change research are considering how best to align financial and human capital toward delivering the relevant knowledge that society will need in the 21st century. The Belmont Forum (named after the group's first meeting venue in Maryland in 2009) meets twice a year and is composed of funding executives from Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Norway, South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Commission, together with the executive directors of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and International Social Sciences Council (ISSC); a full list of members is on the Belmont Forum Web site, http://igfagcr.org/index.php/belmont-forum.

  20. Geomagnetism, volcanoes, global climate change, and predictability. A progress report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. Gregori

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A model is investigated, by which the encounters of the solar system with dense interstellar clouds ought to trigger either geomagnetic field reversals or excursions, that produce extra electric currents within the Earth dynamo, that cause extra Joule's heating, that supplies volcanoes and endogenous processes. Volcanoes increase the Earth degassing into the atmosphere, hence the concentration of the minor atmospheric constituents, including the greenhouse gases, hence they affect climate temperature, glacier melting, sea level and global change. This investigation implies both theoretical studies and observational data handling on different time scales, including present day phenomena, instrumental data series, historical records, proxy data, and geological and palaeontological evidences. The state of the art is briefly outlined, mentioning some already completed achievements, investigations in progress, and future perspectives.

  1. Addressing global change challenges for Central Asian socio-ecosystems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiaguo QI; Temirbek S.BOBUSHEV; Rashid KULMATOV; Pavel GROISMAN; Garik GUTMAN

    2012-01-01

    Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions on the planet earth to global climate change,depending on very fragile natural resources.The Soviet legacy has left the five countries (Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan) with a highly integrated system but they are facing great challenges with tensions that hinder regional coordination of food and water resources.With increasing climate variability and warming trend in the region,food and water security issues become even more crucial now and,if not addressed properly,could affect the regional stability.The long-term drivers of these two most critical elements,food and water,are climate change; the immediate and probably more drastic factors affecting the food and water security are land uses driven by institutional change and economic incentives.As a feedback,changes in land use and land cover have directly implications on water uses,food production,and lifestyles of the rural community in the region.Regional and international efforts have been made to holistically understand the cause,extent,rate and societal implications of land use changes in the region.Much of these have been understood,or under investigation by various projects,but solutions or research effort to develop solutions,to these urgent regional issues are lacking.This article,serves as an introduction to the special issue,provides a brief overview of the challenges facing the Central Asian countries and various international efforts in place that resulted in the publications of this special issue.

  2. Global environmental change: local perceptions, understandings, and explanations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyhälä, Aili; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Lehvävirta, Hertta; Byg, Anja; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; Salpeteur, Matthieu; Thornton, Thomas F.

    2016-01-01

    Global environmental change (GEC) is an increasingly discussed phenomenon in the scientific literature as evidence of its presence and impacts continues to grow. Yet, while the documentation of GEC is becoming more readily available, local perceptions of GEC— particularly in small-scale societies—and preferences about how to deal with it, are still largely overlooked. Local knowledge and perceptions of GEC are important in that agents make decisions (including on natural resource management) based on individual perceptions. We carried out a systematic literature review that aims to provide an exhaustive state-of-the-art of the degree to and manner in which the study of local perceptions of change are being addressed in GEC research. We reviewed 126 articles found in peer-reviewed journals (between 1998 and 2014) that address local perceptions of GEC. We used three particular lenses of analysis that are known to influence local perceptions, namely (i) cognition, (ii) culture and knowledge, and (iii) possibilities for adaptation.We present our findings on the geographical distribution of the current research, the most common changes reported, perceived drivers and impacts of change, and local explanations and evaluations of change and impacts. Overall, we found the studies to be geographically biased, lacking methodological reporting, mostly theory based with little primary data, and lacking of indepth analysis of the psychological and ontological influences in perception and implications for adaptation. We provide recommendations for future GEC research and propose the development of a “meta-language” around adaptation, perception, and mediation to encourage a greater appreciation and understanding of the diversity around these phenomena across multiple scales, and improved codesign and facilitation of locally relevant adaptation and mitigation strategies. PMID:27695479

  3. Water security, global change and land-atmosphere feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadson, Simon; Acreman, Michael; Harding, Richard

    2013-11-13

    Understanding the competing pressures on water resources requires a detailed knowledge of the future water balance under uncertain environmental change. The need for a robust, scientifically rigorous evidence base for effective policy planning and practice has never been greater. Environmental change includes, but is not limited to, climate change; it also includes land-use and land-cover change, including deforestation for agriculture, and occurs alongside changes in anthropogenic interventions that are used in natural resource management such as the regulation of river flows using dams, which can have impacts that frequently exceed those arising in the natural system. In this paper, we examine the role that land surface models can play in providing a robust scientific basis for making resource management decisions against a background of environmental change. We provide some perspectives on recent developments in modelling in land surface hydrology. Among the range of current land surface and hydrology models, there is a large range of variability, which indicates that the specification and parametrization of several basic processes in the models can be improved. Key areas that require improvement in order to address hydrological applications include (i) the representation of groundwater in models, particularly at the scales relevant to land surface modelling, (ii) the representation of human interventions such as dams and irrigation in the hydrological system, (iii) the quantification and communication of uncertainty, and (iv) improved understanding of the impact on water resources availability of multiple use through treatment, recycling and return flows (and the balance of consumptive and conservative uses). Through a series of examples, we demonstrate that changes in water use could have important reciprocal impacts on climate over a wide area. The effects of water management decisions on climate feedbacks are only beginning to be investigated-they are

  4. The Potential Radiative Forcing of Global Land Use and Land Cover Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

    2014-12-01

    Given the expected increase in pressure on land resources over the next century, there is a need to understand the total impacts of activities associated with land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify these impacts using the radiative forcing metric, including forcings from changes in long-lived greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We estimate radiative forcings from the different agents for historical LULCC and for six future projections using simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model and Community Atmosphere Models and additional offline analyses. When all forcing agents are considered together we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day (2010) anthropogenic radiative forcing can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC radiative forcing by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the forcing from CO2 alone. In contrast, the non-CO2 forcings from fossil fuel burning are roughly neutral, due largely to the negative (cooling) impact of aerosols from these sources. We partition the global LULCC radiative forcing into three major sources: direct modification of land cover (e.g. deforestation), agricultural activities, and fire regime changes. Contributions from deforestation and agriculture are roughly equal in the present day, while changes to wildfire activity impose a small negative forcing globally. In 2100, deforestation activities comprise the majority of the LULCC radiative forcing for all projections except one (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5). This suggests that realistic scenarios of future forest area change are essential for projecting the contribution of LULCC to climate change. However, the commonly used RCP land cover change projections all include decreases in global deforestation rates over the next 85 years. To place an upper bound on the potential

  5. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turner II, B.L.; Lambin, E.F.; Reenberg, Anette

    2007-01-01

      Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research.  This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land-cover and land-use as a coupled human-environment system in order to address theory, concepts, models......, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two.  The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues.  The six articles...

  6. The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, B L; Lambin, Eric F; Reenberg, Anette

    2007-12-26

    Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land cover and land use as a coupled human-environment system to address theory, concepts, models, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two. The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues. The six articles of the special feature are introduced and situated within these components of study.

  7. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  8. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramakrishnan, P S

    2001-11-01

    In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. 'Global change' covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and 'globalization' in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the 'traditional' with the 'modern', in a location-specific way.

  9. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  10. Passionate Perspectives: Global Change Emersion in Southwestern Dust and Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    "Tell me, and I'll forget. Show me, and I may remember. But involve me, and I'll understand" (attributed to various philosophers). How many professors have shared 20-30 days traveling, hiking, camping, and Coleman stove cooking with 25-50 young adults? Sixteen times! Way over a year on a field trip…holy sh*t! Tired… but happy. We have offered an extended camping field trip that feature the highlands and deserts of Utah, Arizona, Mexico and California; with side trips to Colorado and New Mexico. Two science and one social science courses focus on global environmental change, water and human development. The discussion will center on the short and long term evolution(s) that have occurred: who, what, where, when and why, and perhaps most important, HOW! These tours are amazing learning experiences that go way beyond any classroom. Many of our students have found the expedition to be life changing - or life awakening. Hopefully we can squeeze the essence into our few minutes of fame :) "Once more I am roaring drunk with the lust of life and adventure and unbearable beauty... Adventure seems to beset me on all quarters without my even searching for it... Though not all my days are as wild as this, each one holds its surprises, and I have seen almost more beauty than I can bear." - Everett Reuss

  11. Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.

  12. Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ecosystems Working Group,

    1998-09-23

    Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water

  13. Botswana's Beef Global Commodity Chain: Explaining the Resistance to Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    In an era of increasing global agricultural trade, many firms and farms seek to upgrade their agricultural commodity chains to become better integrated into global markets. Utilizing a global commodity chain (GCC) approach, this analysis unravels the challenges to and the potential consequences of upgrading Botswana's beef commodity chain.…

  14. Pharmaceutical expenditure changes in Serbia and Greece during the global economic recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlo Jakovljevic

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Clarity on health expenditures is essential for the timely identification of risks that jeopardize the democratic provision of health services and the credibility of health insurance systems. Furthermore, observing health outcomes with geographical scope is essential for making multilateral associations. This study aimed at conveying information on the variability of important economic parameters of the health sector of Serbia and Greece from 2007 to 2012, when the most serious financial crisis in the post-war economic history hit the global economy. Methods: Exchange rates, purchase-power-parities (PPP and price indices were used for the bilateral review of health and pharmaceutical expenditure dynamics during 2007-2012. Prescription and dispensing changes were also studied taking into account the anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC structure of drugs consumed. Results: Greece was forced to cut down its total health care and pharmaceutical expenditure and mainly its out-of-pocket payments were more seriously affected by the recession. Surprisingly, emerging market of Serbia, although severely damaged by global recession, succeeded to maintain 19% growth of its per capita health expenditure and even 25% increase of its per capita spending on pharmaceuticals. Innovative pharmaceuticals showed an upward trend in both countries. Conclusions: These two countries might serve as an example of two distinct pathways of mature and emerging health care markets during financial constraints caused by global recession. Our findings show that producing disease-based feedback, in the long run, may empower the assessment of the return on investment on medical technology and healthcare systems’ cost-effectiveness.

  15. Ecotones in a changing environment: Workshop on ecotones and global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Risser, P.G.

    1990-02-01

    The Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) has organized an international project to synthesize and advance current theory on the influence of ecotones, or transition zones between ecosystems, on biodiversity and flows of energy, nutrients, water, and project is other materials between ecosystems. In particular, the entire project is designed to evaluate the influence of global climate change and land-use practices on biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones, and will assess the feasibility of monitoring ecotones as early indicators of global change. The later stages of the project will recommend landscape management strategies for ecotones that produce desirable patterns of biodiversity and ecological flows. The result of the project--a comprehensive body of information on the theory and management of biodiversity and ecological flows associated with ecotones--will be part of the planning for research to be carried out under the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program.

  16. Analysis of global sumoylation changes occurring during keratinocyte differentiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phillip R Heaton

    Full Text Available Sumoylation is a highly dynamic process that plays a role in a multitude of processes ranging from cell cycle progression to mRNA processing and cancer. A previous study from our lab demonstrated that SUMO plays an important role in keratinocyte differentiation. Here we present a new method of tracking the sumoylation state of proteins by creating a stably transfected HaCaT keratinocyte cell line expressing an inducible SNAP-SUMO3 protein. The SNAP-tag allows covalent fluorescent labeling that is denaturation resistant. When combined with two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, the SNAP-tag technology provides direct visualization of sumoylated targets and can be used to follow temporal changes in the global cohort of sumoylated proteins during dynamic processes such as differentiation. HaCaT keratinocyte cells expressing SNAP-SUMO3 displayed normal morphological and biochemical features that are consistent with typical keratinocyte differentiation. SNAP-SUMO3 also localized normally in these cells with a predominantly nuclear signal and some minor cytoplasmic staining, consistent with previous reports for untagged SUMO2/3. During keratinocyte differentiation the total number of proteins modified by SNAP-SUMO3 was highest in basal cells, decreased abruptly after induction of differentiation, and slowly rebounded beginning between 48 and 72 hours as differentiation progressed. However, within this overall trend the pattern of change for individual sumoylated proteins was highly variable with both increases and decreases in amount over time. From these results we conclude that sumoylation of proteins during keratinocyte differentiation is a complex process which likely reflects and contributes to the biochemical changes that drive differentiation.

  17. Global warning : an ethnography of the encounter between global and local climate-change discourses in the Bamenda Grassfields, Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de S.

    2015-01-01

    Moving beyond existing approaches that largely deal with the biophysical consequences of climate change realities in Africa, this book explores an alternative perspective that traces climate change as a travelling idea. It focuses on how globally constructed discourses on climate change find their w

  18. If You Change Yourself, the World Changes: The Effect of Exhibition on Preservice Science Teachers' Views about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksüt, Pelin; Dogan, Nihal; Bahar, Mehmet

    2016-01-01

    Although learning can occur in many environments e.g. science museum or zoo, some studies reported that teachers are prone to avoid outdoor activities since they lack of field trip training. For that reason; this study aims to explore the effect of the exhibition on preservice science teachers' views about global climate change (GCC) as well as…

  19. Oxidative Stress State Is Associated with Left Ventricular Mechanics Changes, Measured by Speckle Tracking in Essential Hypertensive Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Antonio Moreno-Ruíz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The oxidative stress state is characterized by an increase in oxygen reactive species that overwhelms the antioxidant defense; we do not know if these pathological changes are correlated with alterations in left ventricular mechanics. The aim was correlating the oxidative stress state with the left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS and the left ventricular end diastolic pressure (LVEDP. Twenty-five patients with essential hypertension and 25 controls paired by age and gender were studied. All of the participants were subjected to echocardiography and biochemical determination of oxidative stress markers. The hypertensive patients, compared with control subjects, had significantly (p<0.05 higher levels of oxidized proteins (5.03±1.05 versus 4.06±0.63 nmol/mg, lower levels of extracellular superoxide dismutase (EC-SOD activity (0.045±0.02 versus 0.082±0.02 U/mg, higher LVEDP (16.2±4.5 versus 11.3±1.6 mm Hg, and lower GLS (−12% versus −16%. Both groups had preserved ejection fraction and the results showed a positive correlation of oxidized proteins with GLS (r=0.386, p=0.006 and LVEDP (r=0.389, p=0.005; we also found a negative correlation of EC-SOD activity with GLS (r=-0.404, p=0.004 and LVEDP (r=-0.347, p=0.014.

  20. Oxidative Stress State Is Associated with Left Ventricular Mechanics Changes, Measured by Speckle Tracking in Essential Hypertensive Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Ruíz, Luis Antonio; Ibarra-Quevedo, David; Rodríguez-Martínez, Erika; Maldonado, Perla D.; Sarabia-Ortega, Benito; Hernández-Martínez, José Gustavo; Espinosa-Caleti, Beda; Mendoza-Pérez, Beatriz; Rivas-Arancibia, Selva

    2015-01-01

    The oxidative stress state is characterized by an increase in oxygen reactive species that overwhelms the antioxidant defense; we do not know if these pathological changes are correlated with alterations in left ventricular mechanics. The aim was correlating the oxidative stress state with the left ventricular global longitudinal strain (GLS) and the left ventricular end diastolic pressure (LVEDP). Twenty-five patients with essential hypertension and 25 controls paired by age and gender were studied. All of the participants were subjected to echocardiography and biochemical determination of oxidative stress markers. The hypertensive patients, compared with control subjects, had significantly (p < 0.05) higher levels of oxidized proteins (5.03 ± 1.05 versus 4.06 ± 0.63 nmol/mg), lower levels of extracellular superoxide dismutase (EC-SOD) activity (0.045 ± 0.02 versus 0.082 ± 0.02 U/mg), higher LVEDP (16.2 ± 4.5 versus 11.3 ± 1.6 mm Hg), and lower GLS (−12% versus −16%). Both groups had preserved ejection fraction and the results showed a positive correlation of oxidized proteins with GLS (r = 0.386, p = 0.006) and LVEDP (r = 0.389, p = 0.005); we also found a negative correlation of EC-SOD activity with GLS (r = −0.404, p = 0.004) and LVEDP (r = −0.347, p = 0.014). PMID:26504504

  1. Coralline algae (Rhodophyta) in a changing world: integrating ecological, physiological, and geochemical responses to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Sophie J; Kamenos, Nicholas A

    2015-02-01

    Coralline algae are globally distributed benthic primary producers that secrete calcium carbonate skeletons. In the context of ocean acidification, they have received much recent attention due to the potential vulnerability of their high-Mg calcite skeletons and their many important ecological roles. Herein, we summarize what is known about coralline algal ecology and physiology, providing context to understand their responses to global climate change. We review the impacts of these changes, including ocean acidification, rising temperatures, and pollution, on coralline algal growth and calcification. We also assess the ongoing use of coralline algae as marine climate proxies via calibration of skeletal morphology and geochemistry to environmental conditions. Finally, we indicate critical gaps in our understanding of coralline algal calcification and physiology and highlight key areas for future research. These include analytical areas that recently have become more accessible, such as resolving phylogenetic relationships at all taxonomic ranks, elucidating the genes regulating algal photosynthesis and calcification, and calibrating skeletal geochemical metrics, as well as research directions that are broadly applicable to global change ecology, such as the importance of community-scale and long-term experiments in stress response.

  2. Effects of insecticidal essential oil fumigations on physiological changes in cut Dendrobium Sonia orchid flower

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarongsak Pumnuan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated essential oil (EO formulas with high insecticidal properties, but low physiological impacts on cut Dendrobium Sonia orchid flower. Fumigation toxicities of EOs from 18 medicinal plants at 2.0 and 3.0 µl/L air were examined against adults of thrips (Frankliniella schultzei and larvae of mealybug (Pseudococcus jackbeardsleyi. The effective EO mixtures, optimal concentrations fumigation and air circulation periods were investigated. Then, field experiments were conducted, and changes in L*, a* and b* values, percentages of weight loss and anthocyanin contents of the EOfumigated flower were observed and compared to the methyl bromide and control fumigations. The results showed that clove and cinnamon demonstrated high insecticidal properties against the insects (>85% mortality and low physiological changes in the flower. In particular, fumigations with 2.0 µl/L air of a mixture between clove and cinnamon EOs (1:3 for 3 hr with 15- min air circulation demonstrated the highest thrips and mealybug mortalities (92.2 and 74.6%, respectively. The EO fumigation formula presented less impact on color change and anthocyanin content than methyl bromide fumigation which showed higher reduction of anthocyanin content (22.9 mg/100g FW when compared to the control (13.6 mg/100g FW. The percentages of weight loss in the flower fumigated with EO, control and methyl bromide were about 10.4, 7.9 and 14.8%, respectively. In general, applications of EO at higher concentrations resulted in higher insect mortalities and more impacts on physiological changes which involved anthocyanin degradation and higher percentages of weight loss. Further studies might consider applications of clove and cinnamon EO formulas via other methods. In addition, revisions of the EO mixture can also be examined in order to obtain the most effective and environment friendly insect management approach.

  3. Educating About Global Climate Change With A Cultural Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdez, C.; Fessenden, J.; Kanjorski, N.; Hall, M. K.

    2004-12-01

    Predominantly minority populated schools in Northern New Mexico are plagued by low standardized test scores and high drop-out rates. The school system is currently failing students, and success in science is reliant on self-motivation among students. In order for students to gain momentum in a system where exposure to science is not prevalent, it is important for them to get outside support that catalyzes their interest. Collaboration between Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Science Education Solutions (SES), and local schools has been established to identify student needs and provide them with the opportunity to engage in science through hands-on experience with world-class scientists. Students are being introduced to the prospects of a scientific career while getting the unique chance to explore different aspects of several LANL scientists' research. This initiative also incorporates cultural awareness efforts to promote parent and community involvement. In the past year, two pilot projects were carried out to test the concepts, goals, and methods of the collaboration. One pilot project used plant growth studies in predominantly Hispanic fifth-grade classrooms to stimulate student interest. Students explored tree ring cores and tested water-use efficiency with sponges. The other pilot project included a two-day workshop for Native American students from Jemez Pueblo focusing on global climate change. This project combined a class component and hands-on field research. Samples were taken from LANL research sites with in-field lessons from scientists who monitor the sites. In addition, Jemez Pueblo officials were able to tie the sites to the student's lives with a historical and cultural overview. The most successful elements from these pilot projects are being used to develop a long-term project that will pique student interest in the science disciplines. Field activities garnered the most enthusiastic response from students, while in-class lessons were less

  4. An Essential Role for Pediatricians: Becoming Child Poverty Change Agents for a Lifetime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plax, Katie; Donnelly, Jeanine; Federico, Steven G; Brock, Leonard; Kaczorowski, Jeffrey M

    2016-04-01

    Poverty has profound and enduring effects on the health and well-being of children, as well as their subsequent adult health and success. It is essential for pediatricians to work to reduce child poverty and to ameliorate its effects on children. Pediatricians have important and needed tools to do this work: authority/power as physicians, understanding of science and evidence-based approaches, and first-hand, real-life knowledge and love of children and families. These tools need to be applied in partnership with community-based organizations/leaders, educators, human service providers, business leaders, philanthropists, and policymakers. Examples of the effects of pediatricians on the issue of child poverty are seen in Ferguson, Missouri; Denver, Colorado; and Rochester, New York. In addition, national models exist such as the American Academy of Pediatrics Community Pediatrics Training Initiative, which engages numerous pediatric faculty to learn and work together to make changes for children and families who live in poverty and to teach these skills to pediatric trainees. Some key themes/lessons for a pediatrician working to make changes in a community are to bear witness to and recognize injustice for children and families; identify an area of passion; review the evidence and gain expertise on the issue; build relationships and partnerships with community leaders and organizations; and advocate for effective solutions.

  5. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  6. Insensitivity of Global Neolithic Transition Patterns On Climatic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirtz, K. W.

    Aiming to assess the relative importance of climate events on human history through- out the Holocene here a recently build model is employed. In the model 196 world regions are resolved which mainly differ in their food extraction potential (FEP) and potential number of agricultures. Both regional features are estimated using exist- ing vegetation maps. An array of state variables describes farming to foraging ratio, domestication success, technological and organizational development and population density. Deterministic rules for their time evolution are derived from a growth func- tion, an adaptation principle and a diffusion submodel. Overall model validity can be demonstrated by a striking similarity of simulated patterns and archaeological evi- dence. It is demonstrated that abrupt as well as smooth climatic changes, induced by FEP modifications, do not significantly affect development trajectories of Neolithic communities or global transition patterns. The stability of this result is tested through conducting numerical experiments based on massive parameter variation. However, population density always reacts sensitively, leading to the emergence of distinct mi- gration waves. An in-depth analysis of the differential model behavior provides new arguments in the face of recent or established theories linking climatic factors with human development.

  7. Global CALIPSO Observations of Aerosol Changes Near Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varnai, Tamas; Marshak, Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Several recent studies have found that clouds are surrounded by a transition zone of rapidly changing aerosol optical properties and particle size. Characterizing this transition zone is important for better understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects, and also for improving satellite retrievals of aerosol properties. This letter presents a statistical analysis of a monthlong global data set of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) lidar observations over oceans. The results show that the transition zone is ubiquitous over all oceans and extends up to 15 km away from clouds. They also show that near-cloud enhancements in backscatter and particle size are strongest at low altitudes, slightly below the top of the nearest clouds. Also, the enhancements are similar near illuminated and shadowy cloud sides, which confirms that the asymmetry of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer reflectances found in an earlier study comes from 3-D radiative processes and not from differences in aerosol properties. Finally, the effects of CALIPSO aerosol detection and cloud identification uncertainties are discussed. The findings underline the importance of accounting for the transition zone to avoid potential biases in studies of satellite aerosol products, aerosol-cloud interactions, and aerosol direct radiative effects.

  8. Global Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Associated Surface Temperature Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2016-06-01

    The trends in the sea ice cover in the two hemispheres have been observed to be asymmetric with the rate of change in the Arctic being negative at -3.8 % per decade while that of the Antarctic is positive at 1.7 % per decade. These observations are confirmed in this study through analyses of a more robust data set that has been enhanced for better consistency and updated for improved statistics. With reports of anthropogenic global warming such phenomenon appears physically counter intuitive but trend studies of surface temperature over the same time period show the occurrence of a similar asymmetry. Satellite surface temperature data show that while global warming is strong and dominant in the Arctic, it is relatively minor in the Antarctic with the trends in sea ice covered areas and surrounding ice free regions observed to be even negative. A strong correlation of ice extent with surface temperature is observed, especially during the growth season, and the observed trends in the sea ice cover are coherent with the trends in surface temperature. The trend of global averages of the ice cover is negative but modest and is consistent and compatible with the positive but modest trend in global surface temperature. A continuation of the trend would mean the disappearance of summer ice by the end of the century but modelling projections indicate that the summer ice could be salvaged if anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are kept constant at the current level.

  9. Morphometric and functional MRI changes in essential tremor with and without resting tremor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoletti, Valentina; Cecchi, Paolo; Frosini, Daniela; Pesaresi, Ilaria; Fabbri, Serena; Diciotti, Stefano; Bonuccelli, Ubaldo; Cosottini, Mirco; Ceravolo, Roberto

    2015-03-01

    The etiopathogenesis of essential tremor (ET) is still debated, since the predominant role of circuit dysfunction or brain degenerative changes has not been clearly established. The relationship with Parkinson's Disease (PD) is also controversial and resting tremor occurs in up to 20 % of ET. We investigated the morphological and functional changes associated with ET and we assessed potential differences related to the presence (ET+R) or absence (ET-R) of resting tremor. 32 ET patients (18 ET+R; 14 ET-R) and 12 healthy controls (HC) underwent 3T-MRI protocol including Spoiled Gradient T1-weighted sequence for Voxel-Based Morphometry (VBM) analysis and functional MRI during continuous writing of "8" with right dominant hand. VBM analysis revealed no gray and white matter atrophy comparing ET patients to HC and ET+R to ET-R patients. HC showed a higher BOLD response with respect to ET patients in cerebellum and other brain areas pertaining to cerebello-thalamo-cortical circuit. Between-group activation maps showed higher activation in precentral gyrus bilaterally, right superior and inferior frontal gyri, left postcentral gyrus, superior and inferior parietal gyri, mid temporal and supramarginal gyri, cerebellum and internal globus pallidus in ET-R compared to ET+R patients. Our findings support that the dysfunction of cerebello-thalamo-cortical network is associated with ET in absence of any morphometric changes. The dysfunction of GPi in ET+R patients, consistently with data reported in PD resting tremor, might suggest a potential role of this structure in this type of tremor.

  10. TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD BANKING SYSTEM IN CHANGING GLOBAL IMBALANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shestopalova O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the processes of transformation in the global banking system amid the global financial and monetary crisis. The author argues that the globalization of the world economy has a significant impact on the development of the banking system as an important integral part of the financial system. The author comes to the conclusion that the crisis state of the U.S. economy and individual countries in Western Europe led to the transformation of the monetary and banking sector globally. Banking system world's leading economies are now in “at risk” because the instability of the U.S. dollar and the euro continues to make chaotic

  11. Greenhouse gas emission response to global change may be limited by vegetation community shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coastal marshes experience a confluence of global changes including climate change, sea level rise, exotic species invasion, and eutrophication. These changes are likely to exert new abiotic stressors and affect interspecific interactions that influence vegetation community stru...

  12. Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Claire L.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

  13. Climate change denial, freedom of speech and global justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trygve Lavik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I claim that there are moral reasons for making climate denialism illegal . First I define climate denialism, and then I discuss its impact on society and its reception in the media.  I build my philosophical arguments mainly on John Stuart Mill and Thomas M. Scanlon.  According to Mill’s utilitarian justification of free speech, even untrue opinions are valuable in society’s pursuit of more truth. Consequently one might think that Mill’s philosophy would justify climate denialists’ right to free speech.  A major section of the paper argues against that view. The main arguments are: Climate denialism is not beneficial because its main goal is to produce doubt, and not truth. Climate denialism is not sincerely meant, which is a necessary condition for Mill to accept utterances. Climate denialists bring harm, by blocking necessary action on climate change.  Primarily they harm future generations and people in developing countries. Hence the case can be made in terms of global justice: Would future generations and people in developing countries support my claim? I think so, or so I argue. My argument from global justice is built on Scanlon’s distinction between the interests of participants, the interests of audiences, and the interests of bystanders.  The climate denialists have participant interests ‘in being able to call something to the attention of a wide audience’. Audience interests consist in ‘having access to expressions that we wish to hear or read, and even in being exposed to some degree to expressions we have not chosen’. Future generations and people in poor countries are bystanders to the climate debate. If the debate postpones necessary actions, it is the bystanders who must pay the price. I argue that bystanders’ costs outweigh participants’ and audiences’ interests, and that this is an argument for a statutory ban on climate denialism.Article first published online: 21 DEC 2015 

  14. The ecology of saprophagous macroarthropods (millipedes, woodlice) in the context of global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Jean-François; Handa, Ira Tanya

    2010-11-01

    Millipedes (Diplopoda) and woodlice (Crustacea, Isopoda), with a total of about 15000 described species worldwide, contribute substantially to invertebrate biodiversity. These saprophagous macroarthropods, which are key regulators of plant litter decomposition, play an important role in the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems in tropical and temperate areas. Herein we review current knowledge on the effects of climate, food quality and land cover on millipede and woodlouse species to explore their potential responses to global change. Essentially similar trends are observed in the two taxa. Experiments have shown that climate warming could result in higher rates of population growth and have positive effects on the abundance of some temperate species. This is consistent with signs of northward expansion in Europe, although the mechanisms of dispersal remain unclear. The generality of this finding is evaluated in relation to the life histories and geographical distributions of species. At low latitudes, interactions with more severe droughts are likely and could affect community composition. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ levels and changes in plant community composition are expected to alter leaf litter quality, a major determinant of macroarthropod fertility via the link with female adult body size. Although food quality changes have been shown to influence population growth rates significantly, it is proposed that the effects of warming will be probably more important during the coming decades. Land cover changes, mainly due to deforestation in the tropics and land abandonment in Europe, are critical to habitat specialists and could override any other effect of global change. Habitat destruction by man may be the main threat to macroarthropod species, many of which are narrow endemics. At the landscape scale, habitat heterogeneity could be a good option for conservation, even at the cost of some fragmentation. Two principal areas are identified which require

  15. Global warming and climate change with reference to South Africa. Some perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawie de Villiers

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available According to the geological history of the earth, climate change is an integral part of environmental changes that occurred over time. Sufficient evidence is provided of recurrent wet and dry and cold and hot periods due to natural circumstances. Since the industrial revolution human activities increasingly contribute to air pollution by releasing huge volumes of carbon dioxide and other gasses into the atmosphere, so much so that it is generally accepted that increase in global warming the past decades is directly linked to human activities. Observable signs of human induced climate change include increasing average temperatures at many places, melting ice caps in polar areas, rising sea levels on a global scale and coastal disturbances and damages due to storm surges on coastal areas in various countries, also in South Africa. Consensus from a number of hydrological-meteorological circulation models show, for South Africa, a rise in average annual winter and summer temperatures of between 1.5 and 3.0 degrees Centigrade the following number of decades with a strong possibility of an increase in rainfall in the eastern parts and a decrease in rainfall in the western parts. Bigger floods and longer droughts should occur more frequently as well as severe sea onslaught activities along the eastern and south-eastern coastal areas. The net impact of the predictions on the community is negative. There is though other scientists who indicate that no concrete proof of climate change in South Africa exists; including changes with regard to river floods and droughts. According to more beneficial than detrimental. Despite the differences in opinion about the relative contribution of natural and human activities to the present global warming, changes in hydrological and characteristics of floods in several parts of South Africa in the immediate past, necessitate modifications to available models and approaches to flood damage management and control. Flood

  16. Locating Biodiversity Data Through The Global Change Master Directory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Lola M.

    1998-01-01

    The Global Change Master Directory (GCMD) presently holds descriptions for almost 7000 data sets held worldwide. The directory's primary purpose is for data discovery. The information provided through the GCMD's Directory Interchange Format (DIF) is the set of information that a researcher would need to determine if a particular data set could be of value. By offering data set descriptions worldwide in many scientific disciplines - including meteorology, oceanography, ecology, geology, hydrology, geophysics, remote sensing, paleoclimate, solar-terrestrial physics, and human dimensions of climate change - the GCMD simplifies the discovery of data sources. Direct linkages to many of the data sets are also provided. In addition, several data set registration tools are offered for populating the directory. To search the directory, one may choose the Guided Search or Free-Text Search. Two experimental interfaces were also made available with the latest software release - one based on a keyword search and another based on a graphical interface. The graphical interface was designed in collaboration with the Human Computer Interaction Laboratory at the University of Maryland. The latest version of the software, Version 6, was released in April, 1998. It features the implementation of a scheme to handle hierarchical data set collections (parent-child relationships); a hierarchical geospatial location search scheme; a Java-based geographic map for conducting geospatial searches; a Related-URL field for project-related data set collections, metadata extensions (such as more detailed inventory information), etc.; a new implementation of the Isite software; a new dataset language field; hyperlinked email addresses, and more. The key to the continued evolution of the GCMD is in the flexibility of the GCMD database, allowing modifications and additions to made relatively easily to maintain currency, thus providing the ability to capitalize on current technology while importing

  17. Future global ethics: environmental change, embedded ethics, evolving human identity.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Work on global ethics looks at ethical connections on a global scale. It should link closely to environmental ethics, recognizing that we live in unified social-ecological systems, and to development ethics, attending systematically to the lives and interests of contemp

  18. Global change and biogeochemical cycles: The south Asia region

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mitra, A.P.; DileepKumar, M.; Kumar, K.R.; Abrol, Y.P.; Kalra, N.; Velayutham, M.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    stream_size 33 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt stream_source_info Global-Region_Linkage_Earth_Syst_2002_75.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text...

  19. Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Asselen, Sanneke; Verburg, Peter H

    2013-12-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970-2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.

  20. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  1. Sustainable Land Use in Mountain Regions Under Global Change: Synthesis Across Scales and Disciplines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Huber

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1 more integrative approaches, (2 a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3 enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.

  2. Structural and functional changes of the coronary arteries in elderly senile patients with essential hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jun; Zhu, Fu; Xie, Jun; Cheng, Xinhai; Chen, Guiyu; Tai, Haifen; Fan, Shaohua

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of aging on the changes to the structure and function of coronary arteries in senile elderly patients with essential hypertension. Patients (aged 60-80 years) were divided into three groups. The 195 hypertensive patients were divided into four sub-groups according to the duration of hypertension. The changes to the coronary arteries (left and right) of all those patients were tested using the following index by 64 coronary computed tomography (CT) scans. The 24 h systolic blood pressure (SBP) and other blood biochemical parameters were assayed for all patients. We found that the value of the body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol (TC) and low density lipoproteins (LDL) were lower, but age and high density lipoproteins (HDL) were higher in the group of very elderly patients with hypertension (Group I; Phypertension (Group III). The left anterior descending branch calcification score (CSLAD), total calcification score (CST), pulse pressure (PP), the left main branch calcification score (CSLM), the left circumflex branch calcification score (CSLCX) were significantly increased in Group I compared with Group III (Phypertension' group (Group II). Hence, in elderly patients, a decrease in the levels of BMI, HDL, TC and LDL accompanies aging. Furthermore, the decline of arterial compliance and increase in arterial stiffness develops with age. Aging is more likely to lead to atherosclerosis in the coronary arteries, particularly in the left main coronary artery and its main branches. Aging is an uncontrollable risk factor, which plays a crucial role in coronary artery atherosclerosis.

  3. The changing world of global navigation satellite systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dow, John M.; Neilan, Ruth E.; Higgins, Matt; Arias, Felicitas

    The world of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) has been changing very rapidly during the last years. New constellations are being developed in Europe (Galileo), India (IRNSS), Japan (QZNSS) and China (Compass), while both the US GPS and the Russian GLONASS programmes are engaged in very significant mediumto long-term improvements, which will make them even more valuable in the coming years to an ever wider range of civilian users. In addition, powerful regional augmentation systems are becoming (or have already become) operational, providing users with important real time information concerning the integrity of the signals being broadcast by those two systems: these include the US WAAS, the European EGNOS, the Japanese MSAS, the Indian GAGAN and others. Following a number of United Nations sponsored regional workshops, a report by an ad hoc UN "GNSS Action Team" and several preparatory meetings, the International Committee on GNSS (ICG) was established in December 2005 in Vienna, Austria. The ICG is an informal body with the main objective of promoting cooperation on matters of mutual interest related to civil satellite-based positioning, navigation, timing, and value-added services, as well as compatibility and interoperability among the GNSS systems. A further important objective is to encourage the use of GNSS to support sustainable development, particularly in the developing countries. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) plays a key role in facilitating the work of the ICG. The members of the Committee are GNSS system providers, while international organisations representing users of GNSS can qualify for participation in the work of the Committee as associate members or observers. The interests of the space geodetic, mapping and timing communities are represented in particular through ICG associate membership of the IGS, IAG, FIG, IERS, while BIPM is an ICG observer. This paper will highlight the background of these developments

  4. Evolutionary history of lagomorphs in response to global environmental change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyan Ge

    Full Text Available Although species within Lagomorpha are derived from a common ancestor, the distribution range and body size of its two extant groups, ochotonids and leporids, are quite differentiated. It is unclear what has driven their disparate evolutionary history. In this study, we compile and update all fossil records of Lagomorpha for the first time, to trace the evolutionary processes and infer their evolutionary history using mitochondrial genes, body length and distribution of extant species. We also compare the forage selection of extant species, which offers an insight into their future prospects. The earliest lagomorphs originated in Asia and later diversified in different continents. Within ochotonids, more than 20 genera occupied the period from the early Miocene to middle Miocene, whereas most of them became extinct during the transition from the Miocene to Pliocene. The peak diversity of the leporids occurred during the Miocene to Pliocene transition, while their diversity dramatically decreased in the late Quaternary. Mantel tests identified a positive correlation between body length and phylogenetic distance of lagomorphs. The body length of extant ochotonids shows a normal distribution, while the body length of extant leporids displays a non-normal pattern. We also find that the forage selection of extant pikas features a strong preference for C(3 plants, while for the diet of leporids, more than 16% of plant species are identified as C(4 (31% species are from Poaceae. The ability of several leporid species to consume C(4 plants is likely to result in their size increase and range expansion, most notably in Lepus. Expansion of C(4 plants in the late Miocene, the so-called 'nature's green revolution', induced by global environmental change, is suggested to be one of the major 'ecological opportunities', which probably drove large-scale extinction and range contraction of ochotonids, but inversely promoted diversification and range expansion of

  5. Attribution of projected changes in US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avise, J.; Chen, J.; Lamb, B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Guenther, A.; Salathé, E.; Mass, C.

    2008-08-01

    The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM) output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4) global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM). For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv) on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (-2.6 ppbv). Changes in average 24-h (A24-h) PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m-3), while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2.5 concentrations by -0.9 μg m-3, but this reduction is more than tripled in the Southeastern US due to

  6. Attribution of projected changes in US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Guenther

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4 global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS, and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM. For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv. Changes in average 24-h (A24-h PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3, while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2.5 concentrations by −0.9 μg m−3, but this reduction is more than tripled in the

  7. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Taylor, Ione L.; Belnap, Jayne; Cronin, Thomas M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Frazier, Eldrich L.; Haines, John W.; Kirtland, David A.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C.D.; O'Malley, Robin; Thompson, Robert S.

    2011-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global Change Science Strategy expands on the Climate Variability and Change science component of the USGS 2007 Science Strategy, 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges: USGS Science in the Coming Decade' (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Here we embrace the broad definition of global change provided in the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-606, 104 Stat. 3096-3104)-'Changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of Earth to sustain life'-with a focus on climate and land-use change. Global change science is a well-defined research field with strong linkages to the ecosystem, water, energy and minerals, natural hazards, and environmental health components of the USGS Science Strategy (2007). When science strategies that cover these other components are developed, coordinated implementation will be necessary to achieve Bureau-level synergies and optimize capabilities and expertise. In October 2010, USGS realigned its management and budget structure to implement its 2007 Science Strategy. The new organizational structure, in which 'Global Change' is one of seven key mission areas, lends itself to the advancement of the established six strategic goals. USGS global change science is formally represented by the 'Climate and Land-Use Change' Mission Area in the FY 2012 budge (USGS, 2011). This plan was developed by the USGS Global Change Science Strategy Planning Team (SSPT) appointed by the USGS Director on March 4, 2010 and charged with developing a Global Change Science Strategy for the coming decade (McNutt, 2010). USGS managers and science staff are the main audience for this science strategy. This document is also intended to serve as the foundation for consistent USGS collaboration and ccations with partners and stakeholders.

  8. The Japanese business model, and how globalization is changing it. Is change necessary for Japanese companies?

    OpenAIRE

    Daníel Jón Guðjónsson 1985

    2009-01-01

    The Japanese business model is one of the most intriguing aspects of Japanese society in my view due to its ability to export high quality products at low prices. The model’s success after the Second World War meant that Japan was the first Asian country to become a first world nation where living standards and longevity were among the highest in the world. Recently however, it can be said that the model has been changing in order to fit into the emerging global business environment wher...

  9. Changing Schools in an Era of Globalization. Routledge Research in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, John Chi-Kin; Caldwell, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    Much has been written about globalization and the challenge of preparing young people for the new world of work and life in times of complexity and continuous change. However, few works have examined how globalization has and will continue to shape education in the East. This volume discusses education within the context of globalization and…

  10. Land-use change and global climate policies; Usage des terres et politiques climatiques globales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gitz, V

    2004-03-15

    This PhD thesis assess the role of land-use dynamics and carbon sequestration within climate policies. First, it describes the emergence, from the Rio-1992 to the Marrakech Accords (2001), of diplomatic controversies upon carbon sinks, in the context of the progressive constitution of a scientific basis on terrestrial carbon sinks. It questions the ability of the actual form of international climate regime to generate the appropriate incentives to sequester within the forestry sector in developed countries, or to control tropical deforestation. Second, the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise is quantified using a newly designed model of the global carbon cycle and regional land-use (OSCAR). We show that carbon emitted via land-use is not equivalent to fossil carbon emission in respect to atmospheric CO{sub 2} rise. This effect, all the more than land-use emissions are increasing, requires a greater mitigation effort to stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2}. Finally, optimal timing of mixed climate policies involving fossil emissions mitigation and biological sequestration is assessed within an inter temporal cost-benefit framework. We show that the social value of sequestered carbon depends on anticipating future climate damages. Within optimal control models, this links the timing of sequestration to fossil effort and to the evolution of climate damages; if the latter are uncertain, but might be revealed at a later date, then it might be optimal to reserve part of the limited sequestration potential to cut off an eventual future abatement cost peak, were a climate surprise to finally imply stringent concentration ceilings. (author)

  11. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Nicolas

    2011-05-28

    In the coming decades and centuries, the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems will become increasingly stressed by at least three independent factors. Rising temperatures, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation will cause substantial changes in the physical, chemical and biological environment, which will then affect the ocean's biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems in ways that we are only beginning to fathom. Ocean warming will not only affect organisms and biogeochemical cycles directly, but will also increase upper ocean stratification. The changes in the ocean's carbonate chemistry induced by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) (i.e. ocean acidification) will probably affect many organisms and processes, although in ways that are currently not well understood. Ocean deoxygenation, i.e. the loss of dissolved oxygen (O(2)) from the ocean, is bound to occur in a warming and more stratified ocean, causing stress to macro-organisms that critically depend on sufficient levels of oxygen. These three stressors-warming, acidification and deoxygenation-will tend to operate globally, although with distinct regional differences. The impacts of ocean acidification tend to be strongest in the high latitudes, whereas the low-oxygen regions of the low latitudes are most vulnerable to ocean deoxygenation. Specific regions, such as the eastern boundary upwelling systems, will be strongly affected by all three stressors, making them potential hotspots for change. Of additional concern are synergistic effects, such as ocean acidification-induced changes in the type and magnitude of the organic matter exported to the ocean's interior, which then might cause substantial changes in the oxygen concentration there. Ocean warming, acidification and deoxygenation are essentially irreversible on centennial time scales, i.e. once these changes have occurred, it will take centuries for the ocean to recover. With the emission of CO(2) being the primary driver

  12. Global mean temperature changes during the last millennium

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A synthetic study is made on the global or hemispheric mean temperature series for the last millennium worked out by Mann et al., Jones et al., Crowley and Lowery, and Briffa. The global mean temperature series reconstructed by using proxy data at 30 sites by Wang et al. and simulations from AD 1000 to 2000 by energy balance model are described and compared with the series of others. Wang's series gives greater variability and shows the highest correlation coefficient (0.83) with the simulation results. Uncertainties in the reconstructions and simulations are discussed. The errors in reconstructing a global mean temperature series according to 30 sites as used in the research are estimated. Wang's series indicate that temperature average for the 11th century is higher than the mean of the last millennium. It infers that the Medieval Warm Period predominated to some extent over the globe. However, the 20th century is no doubt the warmest century during the last millennium.

  13. Sustaining Breakthrough Research in a Changing Global Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feist, Thomas

    2006-03-01

    As companies face ever-increasing economic and competitive pressures, the imperative to deliver real, sustained growth through innovation is clear. Corporations need to develop and maintain a research and development portfolio that recognizes this reality. This talk examines how General Electric's Global Research Center is implementing a technology portfolio that balances long- and shorter-term R&D across four global facilities. Examples from medical imaging and energy business segments will be used to illustrate strategies for delivering growth through sustained investment in technology.

  14. Self-organizing change? On drivers, causes and global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Elverfeldt, Kirsten; Embleton-Hamann, Christine; Slaymaker, Olav

    2016-01-01

    Within global environmental change research, certain external drivers generally are assumed to cause the environmental system to change. The most commonly considered drivers are relief, sea level, hydroclimate, and/or people. However, complexity theory and self-organizing systems provide a very different framework and means of explanation. Self-organization - understood as the aggregate processes internal to an environmental system that lead to a distinctive spatial, temporal, or other organization - reduces the possibility of implicating a specific process as being causal. The principle of equifinality, whereby two or more different drivers can generate the same form, has long been recognized within a process-response framework, as well as the concept of divergence, which states that similar causes or processes result in different effects. Both ideas differ from self-organization in that they (i) deal with drivers external to the system and (ii) imply concrete cause-and-effect relations that might be difficult to discern. The assumption is, however, that careful study will eventually lead to the true causes and processes. Studies of self-organization deal with the ways in which internal processes interact and may drive a system toward an instability threshold, the so-called bifurcation point. At this point, the system develops by chance and no single external or internal cause for the change can be defined. For research into environmental change this is a crucial theory for two reasons:

  15. Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review

    OpenAIRE

    Toth, F.L.; Hizsnyik, E.; Clark, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    This study (1) critically reviews existing studies of global trends in population, agriculture, and energy with a view toward showing which studies are most useful for which sorts of studies of global environmental change and sustainable development. (2) Synthesizes a single, internally consistent scenario of global changes in population, agriculture, and energy over the next century for use as a "conventional wisdom" reference case for such studies. (3) Creates a number of "surprise-rich" sc...

  16. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Ishtiaq Hassan; Abdul Razzaq Ghumman; Hashim Nisar Hashmi

    2011-01-01

    Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end o...

  17. Deforestation: Can We Balance Resource Conservation with Economic Growth? Global Environmental Change Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

    This book is the second installment in the Global Environmental Change Series that links the ecology and biology of global environmental changes with insights and information from other disciplines. This series teaches students how to gather a wide range of information from pertinent areas of study and encourages them to develop their own opinions…

  18. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #2: MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT (MARA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of this National Assessment effort mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, EPA's Global Change Research Program is sponsoring the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA). With EPA sponsorship, a multi-disciplinary team of faculty members is leading the first a...

  19. Biodiversity: Can We Balance Resource Conservation with Economic Growth? Global Environmental Change Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC.

    This book is the first installment in the Global Environmental Change Series that links the ecology and biology of global environmental changes with insights and information from other disciplines. It encourages students to weigh a wide range of information from pertinent disciplines and to develop their own opinions in order to make their own…

  20. Re-Examining the Relationship between Tillage Regime and Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammons, Sarah K.

    2009-01-01

    It is known that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are a major contributor to global climate change and that reducing our emissions will stem its acceleration (Baker et al., 2007). Aside from emission reductions, another method for stemming global climate change is to reduce the levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere by storing…

  1. Acting locally, developing knowledge globally: a transitions perspective on designing climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grin, J.; Driessen, J.; Leroy, P.; van Vierssen, W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change, from many perspectives and for many reasons, is a complex issue: scientifically, politically, and in terms of global justice. As such, climate change might be the global societal and political challenge of the 21st century. Dealing with it, either via mitigation or via adaptation, wi

  2. Middle school students' conceptual change in global climate change: Using argumentation to foster knowledge construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry W.

    This research examined middle school student conceptions about global climate change (GCC) and the change these conceptions undergo during an argument driven instructional unit. The theoretical framework invoked for this study is the framework theory of conceptual change (Vosniadou, 2007a). This theory posits that students do not simply correct incorrect ideas with correct ones, but instead weigh incoming ideas against already existing explanatory frameworks, which have likely served the learner well to this point. The research questions were as follows: (1) What are the patterns of students' conceptual change in GCC? (a) What conceptions are invoked in student learning in this arena? (b) What conceptions are most influential? (c) What are the extra-rational factors influencing conceptual change in GCC? This research took place in an urban public school in a medium sized city in the southeastern United States. A sixth grade science teacher at Central Middle school, Ms. Octane, taught a course titled "Research Methods I., which was an elective science course that students took as part of a science magnet program. A unit was designed for 6th grade instruction that incorporated an Argument-Driven Inquiry (ADI) approach, centered on the subject matter of Global Climate change and Global Warming. Students were immersed in three separate lessons within the unit, each of which featured an emphasis upon creating scientific explanations based upon evidence. Additionally, each of the lessons placed a premium on students working towards the development of such explanations as a part of a group, with an emphasis on peer review of the robustness of the explanations proposed. The students were involved in approximately a two week unit emphasizing global climate change. This unit was based on an argumentation model that provided data to students and asked them to develop explanations that accounted for the data. The students then underwent a peer-review process to determine if

  3. Global change during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluijs, A.

    2006-01-01

    Proxy data indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations expected for the next centuries have not been equaled since the early Paleogene, approximately 66 to 45 Million years (Ma) ago. The early Paleogene global climate appears to have been substantially warmer than that of present day, likely in re

  4. Global Demographic Change and Its Implications for Military Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    119 APPENDIXES A. Delayed Maternity and Fertility Rates...some during the past decade. The consequence of what has already taken place in the world’s maternity wards (so to speak) will unfold over the next 20...bathing, and dressing . See Spillman, 2004, p. 160. 31 Spillman, 2004, Table 2, pp. 167–168. 32 Bloom, Canning, and Fink, 2008. 74 Global Demographic

  5. Global Climate Change:A Monumental Mitigation Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    A holistic view of long-term sustainability cannot ignore humanity’s ever-growing demands on fossil fuels, water, and other finite geological resources. Figure 1 (Princiotta et. al., 2014) illustrates the key factors that are responsible for potentially unsustainable global impac...

  6. Local Action for Global Change. World Education Reports, Number 29.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Gillian, Ed.; Baltz, Davis, Ed.

    1991-01-01

    This issue contains five articles that address environmental concerns. "Poverty and Environmental Decline" (Alan Durning) analyzes accelerating environmental decline and discusses the need for action at every level to reverse global deterioration. "Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Made Easy" (Cesar Galvan, Peter Kenmore)…

  7. Global warming and contemporary climatic changes in Poland; Globalne ocieplenie a wspolczesne zmiany klimatyczne w Polsce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-12-31

    The conference on global warming took place in Szczecin, Poland, on May 31 to Jun 1, 1993, organized by the national committee of IGBP Global Change, the Szczecin University and the Szczecin Academy of Agriculture. Twenty papers were published. Topics covered climatic changes in geological history, microclimates in Poland, contributions of natural changes to recent global warming, scenarios for climatic change in Poland, sensitivity of the water balance to climatic change, effects of global warming on surface water temperatures, evapotranspiration in the Balkans, droughts in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Poland, precipitation patterns in Poland, temperatures and salinity in the Baltic Sea, changes in water supply of the Baltic sea, the atmospheric circulation over the Baltic sea and in Poland, cold and heat waves in Poznan during 1911-1990 and climatic changes observed in Southern Poland.

  8. Integrated earth system studies. Joint research efforts of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKeown, R.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Schimel, D.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)] [and others

    1995-06-01

    Analysis of changes to ecosystem C and N pools and fluxes from different natural and managed ecosystems across the continental US was conducted using the CENTURY ecosystem model. Ecosystem dynamics in responses to climate or land use changes do not immediately equilibrate to new environmental conditions. A variety of inherent properties of a biological system has built-in resistance to change in the environment. This includes pools of soil organic matter that resist changes in short-term climate signals, plant components related to ecosystem structure or biogeochemical properties. As climate changes, these pools serve as buffers against immediate changes in the biogeochemical response of the system. Our analysis indicate that certain of the managed ecosystems are more buffered to changes in the climate system than the natural systems; while others appear to be equally sensitive to these changes in rainfall and temperature.

  9. World environmental policy. Conceptual approaches of German political science in response to the challenges of Global Change; Weltumweltpolitik - Global Change als Herausforderung fuer die deutsche Politikwissenschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biermann, F. [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Dingwerth, K. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften

    2001-12-01

    This paper describes, first, the international community of social scientists working on global change, and elaborates on possible contributions to this community by German political scientists. Second, the paper examines three new conceptual approaches to analysing global change, namely the Syndromes of Global Change approach, Earth System Analysis, and Sustainability Science. The paper then elaborates on a number of ways in which German political science could respond to the academic and political challenges posed by global change. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a new approach, focusing on 'world environmental policy analysis' that would bridge traditional (environmental) policy analysis, international relations research, and comparative politics. (orig.) [German] Der Aufsatz beschreibt die Wissenschaftslandschaft der internationalen sozialwissenschaftlichen Global-Change-Forschung mit besonderem Augenmerk auf moegliche Beitraege der deutschen Politologie. Mit den 'Syndromen des Globalen Wandels', der 'Erdsystemanalyse' und der 'Nachhaltigkeitswissenschaft' werden drei neuere konzeptionelle Innovationen vorgestellt, mit denen der Herausforderung des Globalen Wandels begegnet werden soll. Anschliessend werden Wege skizziert, wie die Politikwissenschaft auf die neuen gesellschaftlichen und wissenschaftlichen Probleme des Globalen Wandels reagieren koennte. Eine Schlussfolgerung ist ein Plaedoyer fuer die Entwicklung einer eigenstaendigen Weltumweltpolitik-Analyse an der Schnittstelle von traditioneller Policy-Analyse, Internationalen Beziehungen/Aussenpolitik sowie Komparatistik. (orig./CB)

  10. International wood trade and forest change : A global analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kastner, Thomas; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Nonhebel, Sanderine

    2011-01-01

    Throughout history, humans have transformed natural forests into agricultural land, settlement areas and managed forests. Studies on the dynamics of forest change are one of the mainstays in land change science. The forest transition theory offers a powerful tool to analyze changes in human interfer

  11. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Schewe, J.; Stacke, T.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  12. Global water resources affected by human interventionss and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haddeland, I.; Heinke, J.; Biemans, H.; Eisner, S.; Florke, M.F.; Hanasaki, N.; Konzmann, M.; Ludwig, F.

    2014-01-01

    Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct

  13. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2014-10-22

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.

  14. Effect of camphor essential oil on rat cerebral cortex activity as manifested by fractal dimension changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grbić G.

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to investigate the effect of camphor essential oil on rat cerebral cortex activity by fractal analysis. Fractal dimension (FD values of the parietal electrocortical activity were calculated before and after intra-peritoneal administration of camphor essential oil (450-675 μl/kg in anesthetized rats. Camphor oil induced seizure-like activity with single and multiple spiking of high amplitudes in the parietal electrocorticogram and occasional clonic limb convulsions. The FD values of cortical activity after camphor oil administration increased on the average. Only FD values of cortical ECoG sequences were lower than those before camphor oil administration.

  15. Remote Sensing and halocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Antoni, Hector L.; Schaebitz, Frank

    1995-01-01

    Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCMs) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are short-term records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCMs must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. Unfortunately different parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe.

  16. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambin, Eric F; Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2011-03-01

    A central challenge for sustainability is how to preserve forest ecosystems and the services that they provide us while enhancing food production. This challenge for developing countries confronts the force of economic globalization, which seeks cropland that is shrinking in availability and triggers deforestation. Four mechanisms-the displacement, rebound, cascade, and remittance effects-that are amplified by economic globalization accelerate land conversion. A few developing countries have managed a land use transition over the recent decades that simultaneously increased their forest cover and agricultural production. These countries have relied on various mixes of agricultural intensification, land use zoning, forest protection, increased reliance on imported food and wood products, the creation of off-farm jobs, foreign capital investments, and remittances. Sound policies and innovations can therefore reconcile forest preservation with food production. Globalization can be harnessed to increase land use efficiency rather than leading to uncontrolled land use expansion. To do so, land systems should be understood and modeled as open systems with large flows of goods, people, and capital that connect local land use with global-scale factors.

  17. Climate Change, Global Food Markets, and Urban Unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    stability in Kenya , they typically focus on climatic conditions in Kenya . Yet just as El Niño in the tropical Pacific can lead to colder and wetter...global food prices in constant dollar terms, as well as the proportion of cereal staples (maize, rice , wheat, etc.) traded as a percent of total...populous countries run large rice trade surpluses – such as Thailand and Vietnam – the region as a whole is import dependent.18 Over time, Africa and

  18. Fracking in the face of global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, P.; Gautier, C.

    2015-12-01

    Until recently, "peak oil" was regarded as imminent. Now, however, the recent rapid increase in US oil and gas production from shale exploitation has delayed peak oil. This delay raises grave climate concerns. The development of new technologies (such as horizontal drilling) means that enormous unconventional reserves distributed worldwide may be readily recoverable, with large negative consequences on the global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory. If even a small portion of these unconventional reserves were exploited, it is highly likely that limiting global Earth warming to 2ºC, a goal being discussed for COP 21, will be impossible. Instead, tipping points in the climate system will likely be reached, with serious effects, including greatly accelerated ice melting, leading to large and unstoppable global sea level rise. The enthusiasm for shale gas stems in part from its potential role as a bridge fuel to wean the country from coal until low-carbon alternatives come into full play. However, shale gas and oil production entail direct adverse environmental impacts (air and water pollution, induced earthquakes and public health risks) that are only now coming to light. Gas production through fracking also has severe impacts on climate through the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that leaks from production sites. In intensive fracking regions, high methane concentrations are measured on the ground and are now detectable in satellite data. Proponents of gas fracking argue that with the right policies to protect communities and the environment, natural gas can be harnessed as part of a broad climate strategy. But opponents of gas fracking believe that no regulation will be adequate to protect communities and the local environment. They also fear that natural gas produced through fracking will delay progress toward a carbon-free future. We will explore the consequences for the global climate of exploiting these very large oil and gas resources.

  19. Global climate change: Mitigation opportunities high efficiency large chiller technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanga, M.V.

    1997-12-31

    This paper, comprised of presentation viewgraphs, examines the impact of high efficiency large chiller technology on world electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Background data are summarized, and sample calculations are presented. Calculations show that presently available high energy efficiency chiller technology has the ability to substantially reduce energy consumption from large chillers. If this technology is widely implemented on a global basis, it could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65 million tons by 2010.

  20. Seasonal Changes in the Incidence of Transient Global Amnesia

    OpenAIRE

    Keret, Ophir; Lev, Nirit; Shochat, Tzippy; Steiner, Israel

    2016-01-01

    Background and Purpose Transient global amnesia (TGA) is a stereotypic condition characterized by anterograde and retrograde amnesia that typically resolves within 24 hours. The pathophysiology of TGA is still unclear. We noted that patients hospitalized with TGA tend to appear in seasonal clusters, and decided to investigate this phenomenon. Methods Every patient with acute presentation of amnesia at our medical center is hospitalized for observation and evaluation. We reviewed the monthly o...

  1. Global changes in biogeochemical cycles in response to human activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Melillo, Jerry

    1994-01-01

    The main objective of our research was to characterize biogeochemical cycles at continental and global scales in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This characterization applied to both natural ecosystems and those disturbed by human activity. The primary elements of interest were carbon and nitrogen and the analysis sought to quantify standing stocks and dynamic cycling processes. The translocation of major nutrients from the terrestrial landscape to the atmosphere (via trace gases) and to fluvial systems (via leaching, erosional losses, and point source pollution) were of particular importance to this study. Our aim was to develop the first generation of Earth System Models. Our research was organized around the construction and testing of component biogeochemical models which treated terrestrial ecosystem processes, aquatic nutrient transport through drainage basins, and trace gas exchanges at the continental and global scale. A suite of three complementary models were defined within this construct. The models were organized to operate at a 1/2 degree latitude by longitude level of spatial resolution and to execute at a monthly time step. This discretization afforded us the opportunity to understand the dynamics of the biosphere down to subregional scales, while simultaneously placing these dynamics into a global context.

  2. A Global Change in Higher Education: Entrepreneurial University Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Süreyya SAKINÇ

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Universities are affected by the social and economic diversity stemmed from globalization and internationalization, and its functions, area of responsibility, organizational structure, funding capability respond this diversity. In today's knowledge society, different new concepts regarding the university education system such as Entrepreneur University, Corporation University, virtual university etc. have been emerged with wave of globalization effect. The rising competition in academic education and the mass demands for education prompt to universities to get seeking new funds for fixing their financial situation, and hit them transforming into entrepreneurial identity. The reflections of neoliberal approach in education have transformed the universities into the corporations which are much more focused on entrepreneurial, student-oriented and aimed to appropriate education and producing creative human resources for global development. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation will be carried on regarding the entrepreneur university model through the litterateur research to investigate its causes and factors that impact and improve it. The aim of the paper is to generate a framework that identifies dynamic processes of entrepreneur university model, dependently the litterateur syntheses. The contribution of the paper will depend on its consequent argument that entrepreneur university model is viable for Turkey. In this paper, the entrepreneur university model will be analyzed by Triple Helix phenomenon with the comparative approach.

  3. The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2015-09-23

    Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth\\'s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet\\'s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.

  4. Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, K. B.; Ma, Y.; Tan, X. L.; Shen, X. Y.; Liu, G.; Li, Z. L.; Chen, J. M.; Xia, L.

    2017-01-01

    Global surface temperature change is one of the most important aspects in global climate change research. In this study, in order to overcome shortcomings of traditional observation methods in meteorology, a new method is proposed to calculate global mean surface temperature based on remote sensing data. We found that (1) the global mean surface temperature was close to 14.35 °C from 2001 to 2012, and the warmest and coldest surface temperatures of the global in the recent twelve years occurred in 2005 and 2008, respectively; (2) the warmest and coldest surface temperatures on the global land surface occurred in 2005 and 2001, respectively, and on the global ocean surface in 2010 and 2008, respectively; and (3) in recent twelve years, although most regions (especially the Southern Hemisphere) are warming, global warming is yet controversial because it is cooling in the central and eastern regions of Pacific Ocean, northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, northern regions of China, Mongolia, southern regions of Russia, western regions of Canada and America, the eastern and northern regions of Australia, and the southern tip of Africa. The analysis of daily and seasonal temperature change indicates that the temperature change is mainly caused by the variation of orbit of celestial body. A big data model based on orbit position and gravitational-magmatic change of celestial body with the solar or the galactic system should be built and taken into account for climate and ecosystems change at a large spatial-temporal scale.

  5. Drought and Carbon Cycling of Grassland Ecosystems under Global Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianjie Lei

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the increased intensity and duration of droughts have dramatically altered the structure and function of grassland ecosystems, which have been forced to adapt to this change in climate. Combinations of global change drivers such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, nitrogen (N deposition, grazing, and land-use change have influenced the impact that droughts have on grassland C cycling. This influence, to some extent, can modify the relationship between droughts and grassland carbon (C cycling in the multi-factor world. Unfortunately, prior reviews have been primarily anecdotal from the 1930s to the 2010s. We investigated the current state of the study on the interactive impacts of multiple factors under drought scenarios in grassland C cycling and provided scientific advice for dealing with droughts and managing grassland C cycling in a multi-factor world. Currently, adequate information is not available on the interaction between droughts and global change drivers, which would advance our understanding of grassland C cycling responses. It was determined that future experiments and models should specifically test how droughts regulate grassland C cycling under global changes. Previous multi-factor experiments of current and future global change conditions have studied various drought scenarios poorly, including changes in precipitation frequency and amplitude, timing, and interactions with other global change drivers. Multi-factor experiments have contributed to quantifying these potential changes and have provided important information on how water affects ecosystem processes under global change. There is an urgent need to establish a systematic framework that can assess ecosystem dynamic responses to droughts under current and future global change and human activity, with a focus on the combined effects of droughts, global change drivers, and the corresponding hierarchical responses of an ecosystem.

  6. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs)

    OpenAIRE

    Wajeeha Malik; Hajra Shahid; Rabeea Zafar; Zaheer Uddin; Zafar Wazir; Zubair Anwar; Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak; Syed Shahid Ali

    2012-01-01

    The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to ...

  7. The impact of climate change on the global wine industry: Challenges & solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Renée Mozell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the impact of climate change upon the global production of winegrapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of winegrapes and wine. More importantly, this paper provides some practical solutions that industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries.

  8. Impacts of Global Change Scenarios on Ecosystem Services from the World's Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2012-12-01

    Water is an essential building block of the Earth system and is critical to human prosperity. At the same time, humans are rapidly embedding themselves into the basic character of the water cycle without full knowledge of the consequences. Major sources of water system change include mismanagement and overuse, river flow distortion, pollution, watershed disturbance, invasive species, and greenhouse warming. A pandemic syndrome of risk to rivers-the chief renewable water supply supporting humans and aquatic biodiversity—is evident at the fully global scale, with a costly price-tag ($0.5Tr/yr) required for engineering-based management solutions aimed at fixing rather than preventing problems before they arise. A new project funded under the NSF's Coupled Natural-Human Systems program aims to improve our current understanding of the geography of water-related ecosystem services, accounting for both biophysical and economic controls on these services, and assessing how new management strategies could enhance the resiliency of the global water system over a 100-year time horizon. Within the context of the many sources of threat summarized above, we see the coupling of human-natural systems to be intrinsic to the science at hand, through which we have formulated our central hypothesis: Human-derived stresses imposed on the global water system will intensify over the 21st century, reducing water-related freshwater ecosystem provisioning and supporting services, increasing the costs of their remediation, limiting and shifting the geography of key economic sector outputs, and threatening biodiversity. Addressing this hypothesis has forced a substantial advancement in current capabilities, namely to (i) extend analysis into the 21st century through scenarios, (ii) develop explicit links to freshwater ecosystem services, (iii) assess how the condition of ecosystem services influences the world economy through individual sectors (food, energy, domestic water supply

  9. Climate change at the coast: from global to local; Impact du changement climatique sur la cote: de global a local

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watkinson, A.R. [Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (United Kingdom); East Anglia Univ., School of East Science, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

  10. Change in global aerosol composition since preindustrial times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsigaridis, K.; Krol, M.C.; Dentener, F.; Balkanski, Y.; Lathiere, J.; Metzger, S.; Hauglustaine, D.; Kanakidou, M.

    2006-01-01

    To elucidate human induced changes of aerosol load and composition in the atmosphere, a coupled aerosol and gas-phase chemistry transport model of the troposphere and lower stratosphere has been used. The present 3-D modeling study focuses on aerosol chemical composition change since preindustrial t

  11. Teaching about Climate Change: Cool Schools Tackle Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Tim, Ed.; Littlejohn, Gail, Ed.

    Within the last couple of decades, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased significantly due to human activities. Today climate change is an important issue for humankind. This book provides a starting point for educators to teach about climate change, although there are obstacles caused by the industrialized…

  12. A Global Carbon Levy for Climate Change Adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leuenberger, Moritz [President of the Swiss Confederation (Switzerland)

    2006-11-15

    Climate change is happening, here and now. We are tied together by melting glaciers in Africa and in Europe, by floods in America and in Asia, and by droughts and shortages of fresh water in Australia and Africa. And we are tied by a joint responsibility to combat climate change around the world and help those affected by it.

  13. Global change alters the stability of food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmerson, M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Hunter, M.D.; Jones, T.H.

    2005-01-01

    Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However `change¿ is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties

  14. Global change alters the stability of food webs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emmerson, M.; Bezemer, T.M.; Hunter, M.D.; Jones, T.H.

    2005-01-01

    Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties

  15. ADVANCED ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN ANALYSIS USING THE GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENT MODEL (GCAM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J. A.; Wise, M. A.; MacCracken, C. N.

    1994-05-01

    We report results from a "top down" energy-economy model employing "bottom up" assumptions embedded in an integrated assessment framework, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The analys~s shows that from the perspective of long-term energy system development, differences. in results from the "top down" and "bottom up" research communities would appear to be more closely linked to differences in assumptions regarding the economic cost associated with advanced technologies than to differences In modeling approach. The adoption of assumptions regarding advanced energy technologies were shown to have a profound effect on the future rate of anthropogenic climate change. The cumulative effect of the five sets of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv, the point at which atmospheric concentrations are double those that existed in the m~ddleo f the eighteenth century. While all energy technologies play roles in reducing future fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology plays a particularly important role. If biomass energy can be made available at $2.40/GJ or less in quantities sufficient to make it the core energy supply technology in the middle of the next century, then emissions can be cut dramatically relative to the reference case. The problem of emiss~ons reduction becomes one of technology development and deployment in this case, and not one of fiscal and regulatory intervention.

  16. Changes of Peel Essential Oil Composition of Four Tunisian Citrus during Fruit Maturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumaya Bourgou

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present work investigates the effect of ripening stage on the chemical composition of essential oil extracted from peel of four citrus: bitter orange (Citrus aurantium, lemon (Citrus limon, orange maltaise (Citrus sinensis, and mandarin (Citrus reticulate and on their antibacterial activity. Essential oils yields varied during ripening from 0.46 to 2.70%, where mandarin was found to be the richest. Forty volatile compounds were identified. Limonene (67.90–90.95% and 1,8-cineole (tr-14.72% were the most represented compounds in bitter orange oil while limonene (37.63–69.71%, β-pinene (0.63–31.49%, γ-terpinene (0.04–9.96%, and p-cymene (0.23–9.84% were the highest ones in lemon. In the case of mandarin, the predominant compounds were limonene (51.81–69.00%, 1,8-cineole (0.01–26.43%, and γ-terpinene (2.53–14.06%. However, results showed that orange peel oil was dominated mainly by limonene (81.52–86.43% during ripening. The results showed that ripening stage influenced significantly the antibacterial activity of the oils against Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This knowledge could help establish the optimum harvest date ensuring the maximum essential oil, limonene, as well as antibacterial compounds yields of citrus.

  17. Geospatial studies of global change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity in China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nüchel, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    Global change is affecting a substantial part of the globe and its many impacts, such as deforestation, are the main drivers of ecosystems degradation and loss of biodiversity. This thesis investigates different aspect of how global change has impacted ecosystems and biodiversity in China. China...... constitutes an important region for studying the impacts of global change on ecosystems and biodiversity as the country is both rich in biodiversity, has experienced extensively anthropogenic impacts, and suffers from some of the worst environmental problems in the world. This thesis provides new insights...... into the factors that determine the changes and distribution of tree cover in China, along with the factors that determine the changes and distribution of the genus of threatened mammals Rhinopithecus. Furthermore, it provides deeper understanding of the role of anthropogenic factor’s direct influence on global...

  18. Integrating global energy and climate governance: The changing role of the International Energy Agency

    OpenAIRE

    Heubaum, Harald; Biermann, Frank

    2015-01-01

    Despite the long-recognized interlinkages between global energy consumption and climate change, there has historically been only limited policy interaction, let alone integration, between the two fields. This compartmentalization is mirrored in scholarship, where much research has focused on the fragmentation of, respectively, global energy and global climate governance, but only little has been said about how these fields might be integrated. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s...

  19. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  20. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Kanae, Shinjiro; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Handmer, John; Nicholls, Neville; Peduzzi, Pascal; Mechler, Reinhard; Laurens M. Bouwer; Arnell, Nigel; Mach, Katharine; Muir-Wood, Robert; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kron, Wolfgang; Benito, Gerardo; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increase...

  1. Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

  2. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper;

    2016-01-01

    Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...... foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach...

  3. Remote Sensing and Holocene Vegetation: History of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    DAntoni, Hector; Schaebitz, Frank

    1995-01-01

    Predictions of the future evolution of the earth's atmospheric chemistry and its impact on global circulation patterns are based on Global Climate Models (GCM's) that integrate the complex interactions of the biosphere, atmosphere and the oceans. Most of the available records of climate and environment are shortterm records (from decades to a few hundred years) with convolved information of real trends and short-term fluctuations. GCM's must be tested beyond the short-term record of climate and environment to insure that predictions are based on trends and therefore are appropriate to support long term policy making. An appropriate timeframe should extend over the Holocene period (the last 10,000 years) when most contemporary climate and environmental processes began. Since its inception in 1916, pollen analysis has successfully reconstructed the paleoecology of the last 10,000 years for many sites around the world, thus providing a powerful time-link between short- and long-term processes in the biosphere. However, pollen analytic results cannot be used in physiological models driven by remotely sensed data. Further, modern ecology and climate data are necessary to calibrate pollen analytical models. These are available for extensive regions in the northern hemisphere, particularly for eastern United States and Canada, and western Europe. In other parts of the world, weather stations are scattered, records extend over a period of only few years, and there are no systematic climate records for large portions of the globe. This is the case of Patagonia in Argentina where a few weather stations are located close to the Atlantic seaports, fewer stations are in towns located near the eastern Andean foothill, and fewer still are scattered on the extensive Patagonian plateau. This problem became evident after completion of the Argentine-German Program of Palynology (PROPAL), a cooperative effort of National University of Mar del Plata (Argentina) and University Bamberg

  4. Globalization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    范玮丽

    2008-01-01

    This paper mainly talks about the currently hot topic-globalization. Firstly, it brings out the general trend about globalization and how to better understand its implication. Secondly, it largely focuses on how to deal with it properly, especially for international marketers. Then, facing with the overwhelming trend, it is time for us to think about seriously what has globalization brought to us. Last but not least, it summarized the author's personal view about the future of globalization and how should we go.

  5. Globalization and Institutional Change : Are Emerging Market Economies in Europe and Asia Converging?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoen, Herman

    2014-01-01

    It is often stated that globalization leads to a smaller world by institutional convergence. Politico-economic orders become alike across the world. The article analyzes institutional change triggered by the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 and compares developments in emerging markets in Europe

  6. Coping with global environmental change, disasters and security: threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauch, H.G.; Oswald Spring, Ú.; Mesjasz, C.; Grin, J.; Kameri-Mbote, P.; Chourou, B.; Dunay, P.; Birkmann, J.

    2011-01-01

    This policy-focused Global Environmental and Human Security Handbook for the Anthropo-cene (GEHSHA) addresses new security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks posed by global environmental change and disasters. In 6 forewords, 5 preface essays 95 peer reviewed chapcountries analyse in 10

  7. A New Way for Students and Colleges to Bring about Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, William Jefferson

    2008-01-01

    Over the course of history, students and universities have played important, often transformative roles in guiding all people toward a healthier, more equitable, sustainable, and prosperous global community. Today they face unprecedented global challenges relating to climate change, extreme poverty, malnutrition and disease, and equitable…

  8. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  9. Correlation Factor Analysis of Retinal Microvascular Changes in Patients With Essential Hypertension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Duru; Huang Zhongning

    2006-01-01

    Objectives To investigate correlation between retinal microvascular signs and essential hypertension classification. Methods The retinal microvascular signs in patients with essential hypertension were assessed with the indirect biomicroscopy lens, the direct and the indirect ophthalmoscopes were used to determine the hypertensive retinopathy grades and retinal arteriosclerosis grades.The rank correlation analysis was used to analysis the correlation these grades with the risk factors concerned with hypertension. Results Of 72 cases with essential hypertension, 28 cases complicated with coronary disease, 20 cases diabetes, 41 cases stroke,17 cases renal malfunction. Varying extent retinal arterioscleroses were found in 71 cases, 1 case with retinal hemorrhage, 2 cases with retina edema, 4 cases with retinal hard exudation, 5 cases with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation, 2 cases with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation and cotton wool spot, 1 case with retinal hemorrhage complicated by hard exudation and microaneurysms,1 case with retinal edema and hard exudation, 1 case with retinal microaneurysms, 1 case with branch retinal vein occlusion. The rank correlation analysis showed that either hypertensive retinopathy grades or retinal arteriosclerosis grades were correlated with risk factor lamination of hypertension (r=0.25 or 0.31, P<0.05), other correlation factors included age and blood high density lipoprotein concerned about hypertensive retinopathy grades or retinal arteriosclerosis grades, but other parameters, namely systolic or diastolic pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting blood glucose,blood urea nitrogen and blood creatinine were not confirmed in this correlation analysis (P > 0.05).Conclusions Either hypertensive retinopathy grade or retinal arteriosclerosis grade is close with the hypertension risk factor lamination, suggesting that the fundus examination of patients with

  10. Leading Culture Change in Global Organizations Aligning Culture and Strategy

    CERN Document Server

    Denison, Daniel; Lane, Nancy; Lief, Colleen

    2012-01-01

    Filled with case studies from firms such as GT Automotive, GE Healthcare China, Vale, Dominos, Swiss Re Americas Division, and Polar Bank, among others, this book (written by Dan Denison and his co-authors) combines twenty years of research and survey results to illustrate a critical set of cultural dynamics that firms need to manage in order to remain competitive. Each chapter uses a case as a means to illustrate an important aspect of culture change focusing on seven common culture-change dilemmas including creating a strategic alignment, keeping strategy simple, and more.

  11. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  12. Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Metcalfe

    2011-03-01

    , ecosystem level effects of individual plant traits, and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting feedbacks to R across terrestrial ecosystems and the earth-climate system.

  13. 1.2 million years of climate change, globally and in the Mediterranean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Konijnendijk, T.Y.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis we make a detailed reconstruction of climate changes based on materials from the Mediterranean Sea. Not only does this provide new insights in climate changes in the Mediterranean region, the aim is to improve our understanding of global climate changes as well. We created a single re

  14. Insight to Global Change: EOS/SAR Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    This video presentation describes the methods and instrumentation used to help in determining future climate changes on Earth and explains the benefits of experimentation with synthetic aperture radar (SAR). It also gives a better understanding of the burning of fossil fuels, deterioration of the biosphere and deforestation of the rain forest which causes the greenhouse effect.

  15. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  16. Effects of three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P stoichiometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Kai; Fornara, Dario A; Yang, Wanqin

    2017-01-01

    Over the last few decades there has been an increasing number of controlled-manipulative experiments to investigate how plants and soils might respond to global change. These experiments typically examined the effects of each of three global change drivers (i.e. nitrogen (N) deposition, warming, ...... multifactor effects on plants and soils are urgently required across different world regions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved........ Our study is one of the first to compare individual vs. combined effects of the three global change drivers on terrestrial C:N:P ratios using a large set of data. To further improve our understanding of how ecosystems might respond to future global change, long-term ecosystem-scale studies testing...

  17. 76 FR 55060 - Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-06

    ... AGENCY Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor... of Availability. SUMMARY: EPA is releasing a final report entitled, Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality... with identifying, calculating, and mapping indicators of the relative vulnerability of water...

  18. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

  19. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oriana Ovalle-Rivera

    Full Text Available Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

  20. International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

    1991-12-01

    The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

  1. CTFS-ForestGEO: A worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderson-Teixeira, K.J.; Davies, S.J.; Bennett, A.C.; Gonzalez-Akre, E.B.; Muller-Landau, H.C.; Wright, S.J.; Abu Salim, K.; Almeyda Zambrano, A.M.; Jansen, P.A.; Ouden, den J.

    2015-01-01

    Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics rese

  2. Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    In this study,the characteristics and changing trends of temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin.Further,in this study,the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination.The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming,and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years.Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing.Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously,whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely;the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow,glacier,and frozen soils in future several decades.

  3. Understanding coupled climatic and ecosystem responses to global climate change in the Central Grasslands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Falkner, M.B.; Detling, J.; Ojima, D.; Pielke, R.A.; Stohlgren, T.J. (Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins (United States)); Kittel, T.G.F. (Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins (United States) UCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)); Lenihan, J.; Neilson, R. (Oregon State Univ., Corvallis (United States)); Reiners, W. (Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie (United States))

    1993-06-01

    A long-term National Park Service research program to assess the potential effect of global climate change on the Central Grasslands Biogeographic Area is underway. The program consists of two integrated projects: Projecting climate and vegetation change at regional to landscape scales; and Predicting the effect of global change on vegetation in park landscapes at the plot to landscape scales. Together, these integrated field and modeling studies establish a means to validate mesoscale and landscape vegetation models, a central goal of the NPS Global Change Research Program. Vegetation life form modeling suggests that under climate change scenarios the distribution of grassland vegetation zones will undergo major shifts. Results indicate that climate change impacts that reduce water availability will more severely depress productivity of C[sub 3] grass communities relative to C[sub 4] grass communities.

  4. Re-emergence of Chikungunya and other scourges: the role of globalization and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezza, Giovanni

    2008-01-01

    Globalization and climate change are important phenomena in a changing world. To date, only the effect of globalisation on infectious diseases, from vector-borne to respiratory infections, has been well established. The influence of cyclic natural climatic events and local variations in temperature and precipitation has also been recognised; however, there is still no conclusive evidence of an effect of global warming on infectious disease patterns.

  5. US Global Change Research Program Distributed Cost Budget Interagency Funds Transfer from DOE to NSF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhle, Maria [National Science Foundation (NSF), Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-09-22

    These funds were transferred from DOE to NSF as DOE's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program in support of 4 internationalnactivities/programs as approved by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on 14 March 2014. The programs are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the DIVERSITAS programme, and the World Climate Research Program. All program awards ended as of 09-23-2015.

  6. Phytoplankton niches, traits and eco-evolutionary responses to global environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litchman, Elena; Edwards, Kyle F.; Klausmeier, Christopher A.;

    2012-01-01

    Phytoplankton are major primary producers in aquatic ecosystems and are sensitive to various aspects of global environmental change. They can respond through phenotypic plasticity, species sorting, genetic adaptation, or a combination of these processes. Here we present conceptual, experimental a...... be investigated simultaneously. Novel models of trait evolution in a community context should provide additional insights into potential adaptation trajectories under diverse global change scenarios...

  7. Omega-3: A Link between Global Climate Change and Human Health

    OpenAIRE

    Kang, Jing X.

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are ess...

  8. Global Change and Human Consumption of Freshwater Driven by Flow Regulation and Irrigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, F.; Destouni, G.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies show major uncertainties about the magnitude and key drivers of global freshwater change, historically and projected for the future. The tackling of these uncertainties should be a societal priority to understand: 1) the role of human change drivers for freshwater availability changes, 2) the global water footprint of humanity and 3) the relation of human freshwater consumption to a proposed planetary boundary. This study analyses worldwide hydroclimatic changes, as observed during 1900-2009 in 99 large hydrological basins across all continents. We test whether global freshwater change may be driven by major developments of flow regulation and irrigation (FRI) occurring over this period. Independent categorization of the variability of FRI-impact strength among the studied basins is used to identify statistical basin differences in occurrence and strength of characteristic hydroclimatic signals of FRI. Our results show dominant signals of increasing relative evapotranspiration in basins affected by flow regulation and/or irrigation, in conjunction with decreasing relative intra-annual variability of runoff in basins affected by flow regulation. The FRI-related increase in relative evapotranspiration implies an increase of 4,688 km3/yr in global annual average water flow from land to the atmosphere. This observation-based estimate extends considerably the upper quantification limits of both FRI-driven and total global human consumption of freshwater, as well as the global water footprint of humanity. Our worldwide analysis shows clear FRI-related change signals emerging directly from observations, in spite of large change variability among basins and many other coexisting change drivers in both the atmosphere and the landscape. These results highlight the importance of considering local water use as a key change driver in Earth system studies and modelling, of relevance for global change and human consumption of freshwater.

  9. "The gate-keepers in a changing world: integrating microbial diversity and dynamics with global change biology."

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jessica L.M. Gutknecht and Kathryn M. Docherty

    2011-11-01

    Microorganisms (Bacteria, Archaea and Fungi) are the gate-keepers of many ecosystem-scale biogeochemical cycles. Although there have been measurable changes in ecosystem function due to human activities such as greenhouse gas production, nutrient loading, land-use change, and water consumption, few studies have connected microbial community dynamics with these changes in ecosystem function. Specifically, very little is known about how global changes will induce important functional changes in microbial biodiversity. Even less is known about how microbial functional changes could alter rates of nutrient cycling or whether microbial communities have enough functional redundancy that changes will have little impact on overall process rates. The proposed symposium will provide an overview of this emerging research area, with emphasis on linking the microorganisms directly to important ecological functions under the influence of global change dynamics. The session will include both broad overviews as well as specific case-studies by researchers who examine microbial communities from a variety of taxonomic levels and from various environments. The session will begin broadly, with speakers discussing how microbial communities may inform ecosystem-scale global change studies, and help to make microbial ecological knowledge more tangible for a broad range of ecologists. The session will continue with case studies of microbial community information informing process in global change experiments. Finally, the session will close with speakers discussing how microbial community information might fit into global change models, and what types of information are useful for future studies. We have requested that speakers particularly incorporate their views on what types of microbial data is useful and informative in the context of larger ecosystem processes. We foresee that this session could serve as a focal point for global change microbial ecologists to meet and discuss their

  10. Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calfapietra, C; Gielen, B; Karnosky, D; Ceulemans, R; Scarascia Mugnozza, G

    2010-04-01

    The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level.

  11. Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

  12. Global analysis of induced transcription factors and cofactors identifies Tfdp2 as an essential coregulator during terminal erythropoiesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cynthia; Lodish, Harvey F

    2014-06-01

    Key transcriptional regulators of terminal erythropoiesis, such as GATA-binding factor 1 (GATA1) and T-cell acute lymphocytic leukemia protein 1 (TAL1), have been well characterized, but transcription factors and cofactors and their expression modulations have not yet been explored on a global scale. Here, we use global gene expression analysis to identify 28 transcription factors and 19 transcriptional cofactors induced during terminal erythroid differentiation whose promoters are enriched for binding by GATA1 and TAL1. Utilizing protein-protein interaction databases to identify cofactors for each transcription factor, we pinpoint several co-induced pairs, of which E2f2 and its cofactor transcription factor Dp-2 (Tfdp2) were the most highly induced. TFDP2 is a critical cofactor required for proper cell cycle control and gene expression. GATA1 and TAL1 are bound to the regulatory regions of Tfdp2 and upregulate its expression and knockdown of Tfdp2 results in significantly reduced rates of proliferation as well as reduced upregulation of many erythroid-important genes. Loss of Tfdp2 also globally inhibits the normal downregulation of many E2F2 target genes, including those that regulate the cell cycle, causing cells to accumulate in S phase and resulting in increased erythrocyte size. Our findings highlight the importance of TFDP2 in coupling the erythroid cell cycle with terminal differentiation and validate this study as a resource for future work on elucidating the role of diverse transcription factors and coregulators in erythropoiesis.

  13. Aquatic Ecosystems, Water Quality, and Global Change: Challenges of Conducting Multi-Stressor Vulnerability Assessments (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Change: The Challenges of conducting Multi-Stressor Global Change Vulnerability Assessments. This report investigates the issues and challenges associated with identifying, calculating, and ...

  14. Basin Management under the Global Climate Change (Take North-East Asia Heilongjiang -Amur Basin and Taihu Basin For Example)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S.; Zhou, Z.; Zhong, G.; Zhang, X.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of global climate change on environment and society causes increasingly concern in different countries around the world. The main climate characteristic values, such as precipitation and temperature, have been changed, which leads to the variation of water resources, especially in large basins. Heilongjiang-Amur Basin and Taihu Basin are two large and important basins in China with large area and population. As global climate change and human activities have siganificant impacts on hydrology and water resources in two basins, the analysis of climate change are of great value. In this study, in Heilongjiang-Amur Basin, precipitation and temperature are investigated and their variation are predicted. And in Taihu Basin, precipitation including plum rain and typhoon, are studied and the variation trend of precipitation is predicted. Hence, the impacts of global climate change are assessed. From the result, it shows that the average temperature will continue to increase, and the precipitation will reduce first and then turn to increase in these two basins. It demonstrates that the water resources have been affected a lot by climate change as well as human activities. And these conclusions are provided as reference for policy makers and basin authorities in water resources management and natural hazards mitigation. Meanwhile, according to basins' particualr characters, the suggestions to future water resources management in two basins are given, and more scientific, comprehensive and sustained managements are required. Especially, in Heilongjiang-Amur River, which is a boundary river between China and Russia, it is very essential to enhance the cooperation between two countries.

  15. Basic Info | Energy and Global Climate Change in New ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    Beginning late in the 18th Century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere and began influencing the Earth's climate: the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, along with deforestation, has caused concentrations of heat-trapping 'greenhouse gases' to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases act to prevent heat from escaping into space, like the glass panels of a greenhouse.

  16. Global and Local Discourses on Climate Change: A Perspective from the Concept of Embeddedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jailab Kumar Rai

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has been becoming a major order of business of all including researchers and academics. This is known that global, national and local organizations, institutions and even the individuals are partaking into the issues with their own perspectives and skills of negotiations. Despite the series of international efforts and attempts, there are also a series of national concerns, efforts and attempts in combating against the effects of global climate change. This paper is an attempt to draw on the overview of contexts and concerns of international communities for combating global climate change and its discursive influence in national policy discourses. Moreover, the paper attempts to assess the local socio-cultural discourses and dynamics of climate change in relation to global and national discourses. Finally the paper highlights on how global and local climate change knowledge networks and epistemic communities either from political processes or the socio-economic fabrics are interrelated and determinant to each other. Keywords: climate change; discourses; embeddeness; dynamics; global; local DOI: 10.3126/dsaj.v4i0.4518 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol.4 2010 pp.143-180

  17. Global change in marine ecosystems: implications for semi-enclosed Arabian seas

    KAUST Repository

    Duarte, Carlos M.

    2015-12-07

    Global Change has been defined as the impact of human activities on the key processes that determine the functioning of the Biosphere. Global Change is a major threat for marine ecosystems and includes climate change as well as other global impacts such as inputs of pollutants, overfishing and coastal sprawl. The Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas, including the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, have supported human livelihoods in the Arabian Peninsula over centuries and continue to do so, but are also threatened by Global Change. These threats are particularly severe as Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas already present rather extreme conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and oxygen concentration. The vulnerability of the unique marine ecosystems of the Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors is largely unknown, but predictions based on first principles suggest that they may be at or near the tipping point for many pressures, such as warming and hypoxia. There is an urgent need to implement international collaborative research programs to accelerate our understanding of the vulnerability of Semi-enclosed Arabian Seas to Global Change vectors in order to inform conservation and management plans to ensure these Seas continue to support the livelihoods and well-being of the Arab nations.

  18. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  19. Participant attributions for global change ratings in unexplained chronic fatigue and chronic fatigue syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedberg, Fred; Coronel, Janna; Seva, Viktoria; Adamowicz, Jenna L; Napoli, Anthony

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to identify participants' attributions for their global impression of change ratings in a behavioral intervention for unexplained chronic fatigue and chronic fatigue syndrome. At 3-month follow-up, participants (N = 67) were asked "Why do you think you are (improved, unchanged, worse)?" Improved patients pointed to specific behavioral changes, unchanged patients referred to a lack of change in lifestyle, and worsened patients invoked stress and/or specific life events. Identifying patient perceptions of behaviors associated with patient global impression of change-rated improvement and non-improvement may assist in developing more effective management strategies in clinical care.

  20. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  1. Use of Digital Image Technology to 'Clearly' Depict Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnia, B. F.; Carbo, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is dynamic and beautiful. Understanding why, when, how, and how fast its surface changes yields information and serves as a source of inspiration. The artistic use of geoscience information can inform the public about what is happening to their planet in a non-confrontational and apolitical way. While individual images may clearly depict a landscape, photographic comparisons are necessary to clearly capture and display annual, decadal, or century-scale impacts of climate and environmental change on Earth's landscapes. After years of effort to artistically communicate geoscience concepts with unenhanced individual photographs or pairs of images, the authors have partnered to maximize this process by using digital image enhancement technology. This is done, not to manipulate the inherent artistic content or information content of the photographs, but to insure that the comparative photo pairs produced are geometrically correct and unambiguous. For comparative photography, information-rich historical photographs are selected from archives, websites, and other sources. After determining the geographic location from which the historical photograph was made, the original site is identified and eventually revisited. There, the historical photos field of view is again photographed, ideally from the original location. From nearly 250 locations revisited, about 175 pairs have been produced. Every effort is made to reoccupy the original historical site. However, vegetation growth, visibility reduction, and co-seismic level change may make this impossible. Also, inherent differences in lens optics, camera construction, and image format may result in differences in the geometry of the new photograph when compared to the old. Upon selection, historical photos are cleaned, contrast stretched, brightness adjusted, and sharpened to maximize site identification and information extraction. To facilitate matching historical and new images, digital files of each are overlain in

  2. Scientific aspects of climate change; Fundamentos cientificos del calentamiento global

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, G.

    2007-07-01

    For the last 35 years, the average temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing- Are the greenhouse gases emitted by human beings the cause? What will the consequences be? What can we do? The fourth report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate change tries to answer these questions. There are clear signs of thawing that primary affect Greenland and the Antarctic, but there are still many doubts what the consequences will be throughout the century. In any case, it seems obvious that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not substantially reduced very soon, the rising temperature trend and its associated consequences will persist beyond the 21st century. (Author)

  3. Increasing population and declining biological resources in the context of global change and globalization

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P S Ramakrishnan

    2001-11-01

    In the context of over-consumption of natural resources in the name of development and rapid industrialization by a small section of the human population that is rapidly growing, the world is currently faced with a variety of environmental uncertainties. `Global change’ covering a whole variety of ecological issues, and `globalization’ in an economic sense, are two major phenomena that are responsible for these uncertainties. There is increasing evidence to suggest that the developing countries more than the developed, particularly the marginalized traditional (those living close to nature and natural resources) societies would be the worst sufferers. In order to cope with this problem in a situation where the traditional societies have to cope with rapidly depleting biodiversity on which they are dependant for their livelihood, there is an urgent need to explore additional pathways for sustainable management of natural resources and societal development. Such pathways should be based on a landscape management strategy, that takes into consideration the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) that these societies have. This is critical because TEK is the connecting link between conservation and sustainable development. This paper explores the possibilities in this direction through a balanced approach to development, that links the `traditional’ with the `modern’, in a location-specific way.

  4. Global Change in Earth's Atmosphere: Natural and Anthropogenic Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lean, J.

    2013-12-01

    To what extent is human activity, such as the emission of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse' gases, influencing Earth's atmosphere, compared with natural variations driven by, for example, the Sun or volcanoes? Why has Earth's surface warmed barely, if at all, in the last decade? Why is the atmosphere at just 20 km above the surface cooling instead of warming? When - and will - the ozone layer recover from its two-decade decline due to chlorofluorocarbon depletion? Natural and anthropogenic factors are changing Earth's atmosphere, each with distinct temporal, geographical and altitudinal signatures. Increasing greenhouse gases, for example, warm the surface but cool the stratosphere and upper atmosphere. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during a volcanic eruption warm the stratosphere but cool the surface. Increases in the Sun's brightness warm Earth's atmosphere, throughout. This talk will quantify and compare a variety of natural and human influences on the Earth's atmosphere, extracted statistically from multiple datasets with the goal of understanding how and why Earth's atmosphere is changing. The extent to which responses to natural influences are presently masking or exacerbating ongoing responses to human activity is examined. Scenarios for future levels of anthropogenic gases and solar activity are then used to speculate how Earth's atmosphere might evolve in future decades, according to both statistical models of the databases and physical general circulation models.

  5. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  6. Disturbances, organisms and ecosystems: a global change perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponge, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    The present text exposes a theory of the role of disturbances in the assemblage and evolution of species within ecosystems, based principally, but not exclusively, on terrestrial ecosystems. Two groups of organisms, doted of contrasted strategies when faced with environmental disturbances, are presented, based on the classical r-K dichotomy, but enriched with more modern concepts from community and evolutionary ecology. Both groups participate in the assembly of known animal, plant, and microbial communities, but with different requirements about environmental fluctuations. The so-called "civilized" organisms are doted with efficient anticipatory mechanisms, allowing them to optimize from an energetic point of view their performances in a predictable environment (stable or fluctuating cyclically at the scale of life expectancy), and they developed advanced specializations in the course of evolutionary time. On the opposite side, the so-called "barbarians" are weakly efficient in a stable environment because they waste energy for foraging, growth, and reproduction, but they are well adapted to unpredictably changing conditions, in particular during major ecological crises. Both groups of organisms succeed or alternate each other in the course of spontaneous or geared successional processes, as well as in the course of evolution. The balance of "barbarians" against "civilized" strategies within communities is predicted to shift in favor of the first type under present-day anthropic pressure, exemplified among others by climate warming, land use change, pollution, and biological invasions.

  7. Understanding global climate change: paleoclimate perspective from the world's highest mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Lonnie G

    2010-06-01

    Glaciers are among the world's best recorders of, and first responders to, natural and anthropogenic climate change and provide a time perspective for current climatic and environmental variations. Over the last 50 years such records have been recovered from the polar regions as well as low-latitude, high-elevation ice fields. Analyses of these ice cores and of the glaciers from which they have been drilled have yielded three lines of evidence for past and present abrupt climate change: (1) the temperature and precipitation histories recorded in the glaciers as revealed by the climate records extracted from the ice cores; (2) the accelerating loss of the glaciers themselves; and (3) the uncovering of ancient fauna and flora from the margins of the glaciers as a result of their recent melting, thus illustrating the significance of the current ice loss. The current melting of high-altitude, low-latitude ice fields is consistent with model predictions for a vertical amplification of temperature in the tropics. The ongoing rapid retreat of the world's mountain glaciers, as well as the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, is not only contributing to global sea level rise, but also threatening fresh-water supplies in many of the most populous regions. More recently, strong evidence has appeared for the acceleration of the rate of ice loss in the tropics, which especially presents a clear and present danger to water supplies for at-risk populations in South America and Asia. The human response to this issue, however, is not so clear, for although the evidence from both data and models becomes more compelling, the rate of global CO2 emissions continues to accelerate. Climatologically, we are in unfamiliar territory, and the world's ice cover is responding dramatically. The loss of glaciers, which can be viewed as the world's water towers, threatens water resources that are essential for hydroelectric power, crop irrigation, municipal water supplies, and even

  8. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M.C.; Potapov, P.V.; Moore, R.; Hancher, M.; Turubanova, S.A.; Tyukavina, A.; Thau, D.; Stehman, S.V.; Goetz, S.J.; Loveland, T.R.; Kommareddy, A.; Egorov, A.; Chini, L.; Justice, C.O.; Townshend, J.R.G.

    2013-01-01

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil’s well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  9. Health, fairness and New Zealand's contribution to global post-2020 climate change action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Hayley; Macmillan, Alex; Jones, Rhys

    2015-05-29

    Health and wellbeing have been largely ignored in discussions around climate change targets and action to date. The current public consultation around New Zealand's post-2020 climate target is an opportunity for health professionals to highlight the health implications of climate change. Without urgent global efforts to bring down global GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, the world is heading towards high levels of global warming, which will have devastating impacts on human health and wellbeing. New Zealand's action to bring down GHG emissions (as part of the global effort) has potential to improve health and reduce costs on the health sector, if health and fairness are put at the centre of policies to address climate change. New Zealand should commit to at least 40 % reductions in GHG emissions by 2030, and zero carbon emissions before 2050, with healthy and fair policies across sectors to enable reaching these targets.

  10. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, M C; Potapov, P V; Moore, R; Hancher, M; Turubanova, S A; Tyukavina, A; Thau, D; Stehman, S V; Goetz, S J; Loveland, T R; Kommareddy, A; Egorov, A; Chini, L; Justice, C O; Townshend, J R G

    2013-11-15

    Quantification of global forest change has been lacking despite the recognized importance of forest ecosystem services. In this study, Earth observation satellite data were used to map global forest loss (2.3 million square kilometers) and gain (0.8 million square kilometers) from 2000 to 2012 at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The tropics were the only climate domain to exhibit a trend, with forest loss increasing by 2101 square kilometers per year. Brazil's well-documented reduction in deforestation was offset by increasing forest loss in Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Bolivia, Zambia, Angola, and elsewhere. Intensive forestry practiced within subtropical forests resulted in the highest rates of forest change globally. Boreal forest loss due largely to fire and forestry was second to that in the tropics in absolute and proportional terms. These results depict a globally consistent and locally relevant record of forest change.

  11. Processionary Moths and Associated Urtication Risk: Global Change-Driven Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, Andrea; Larsson, Stig; Roques, Alain

    2017-01-31

    Processionary moths carry urticating setae, which cause health problems in humans and other warm-blooded animals. The pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa has responded to global change (climate warming and increased global trade) by extending its distribution range. The subfamily Thaumetopoeinae consists of approximately 100 species. An important question is whether other processionary moth species will similarly respond to these specific dimensions of global change and thus introduce health hazards into new areas. We describe, for the first time, how setae are distributed on different life stages (adult, larva) of major groups within the subfamily. Using the available data, we conclude that there is little evidence that processionary moths as a group will behave like T. pityocampa and expand their distributional range. The health problems caused by setae strongly relate to population density, which may, or may not, be connected to global change.

  12. Advances on the Responses of Root Dynamics to Increased Atmospheric CO2 and Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Plant roots dynamics responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, increased temperature and changed precipitation can be a key link between plant growth and long-term changes in soil organic matter and ecosystem carbon balance. This paper reviews some experiments and hypotheses developed in this area, which mainly include plant fine roots growth, root turnover, root respiration and other root dynamics responses to elevated CO2 and global climate change. Some recent new methods of studying root systems were also discussed and summarized. It holds herein that the assemblage of information about root turnover patterns, root respiration and other dynamic responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 and global climatic change can help to better understand and explore some new research areas. In this paper, some research challenges in the plant root responses to the elevated CO2 and other environmental factors during global climate change were also demonstrated.

  13. Global change impact on water resources at the regional scale - a reflection on participatory modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, Roland; Büttner, Hannah; Nickel, Darla; Seidl, Roman

    2015-04-01

    Participatory modeling (PM) has become an essential part of environmental impact assessment and planning in the field of water resources research and management. This is mainly because of the notion that models developed by scientists for scientific purposes are often not suitable for practical management for several reasons, such as (too) high complexity, low user-friendliness and lack of problem/solution orientation. Participation is seen as a key concept for bridging the gap between modelers and stakeholders. In this submission we focus on the PM-process in the GLOWA-Danube (GD) project (German Ministry of Education and Research, 2001-2011). GD was carried out by an interdisciplinary consortium of 17 research organizations. The main goal was to develop and to use the integrated modelling system DANUBIA as a tool to evaluate the impact of global change on the Upper Danube Catchment (Southern Germany, 77,000 km^2) and to discuss the implications with relevant stakeholders. An intensive stakeholder dialoged was carried out to include the perspective of stakeholders and end-users in the model and scenario development - with the final goal of facilitating implementation of DANUBIA in practical management after termination of the scientific project. This contribution looks at the specific conditions for PM in the field of global change scenarios and complex integrated models. The different phases of the PM process in GD are presented along with a discussion of the respective results. Overall, the impact of stakeholder interaction on the model development was much lower than expected. The ultimate goal of using the PM process to develop DANUBIA as a tool used in practical management after termination of the scientific project was not reached. However, implications of climate change and modelling could be discussed with the stakeholders involved and relevant learning processes on both sides (scientists and stakeholders) were facilitated in the final phase. In the

  14. Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Childers, Katelin

    2015-04-01

    An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have

  15. Changes in the essential oil content and terpene composition of rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L. by using plant biostimulants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir FOROUTAN NIA

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Plant biostimulants can stimulate the increase of growth, metabolism and the biosynthesis of metabolites in plants. This study investigated the changes of rosemary essential oil and its components composition under use of biostimulants for the possible reduction in use of chemical fertilizers. Treatments included biostimulants based on amino acids in four formulations, Aminolforte, Kadostim, Humiforte, and Fosnutren (each of them at 0.75 and 1.5 L ha-1, and application of N.P.K fertilizer as a control treatment (by applied complete fertilizer at 100 kg per hectar with proportion of 15:8:15 percentage of N:P:K in the fertilizer. Results showed that the essential oil content and its components were significantly affected by biostimulants application. The maximum content of essential oil was obtained at 1.5 L ha-1 Humiforte and both concentrations of Aminolforte. While, the highest content of α-pinene, 1,8-cineole, and camphor as major components of rosemary essential oil were obtained at 1.5 L ha-1 Fosnutren. In addition, the maximum content of linalool, z-pinocamphone, bornyl acetate, and caryophyllene oxide were observed at 1.5 L ha-1 Fosnutren.Although, the highest content of myrcene and verbenone was obtained in the treatment with N.P.K fertilizer, but the maximum contents of β-pinene, camphene, borneol, and α-terpineol were related to the both concentrations of Aminolforte.We can conclude that biostimulants based on amino acids can be an effective alternative in reducing the use of chemical fertilizer and increasing the quantity and quality of rosemary essential oil.

  16. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots thro...

  17. Toward a Quantitative Estimate of Future Heat Wave Mortality under Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Peng, Roger D.; Tebaldi, Claudia; McDaniel, Larry; Bobb, Jennifer; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle D.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Climate change is anticipated to affect human health by changing the distribution of known risk factors. Heat waves have had debilitating effects on human mortality, and global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. The extent to which climate change will harm human health through changes in the distribution of heat waves and the sources of uncertainty in estimating these effects have not been studied extensively. Objectives: We estimated t...

  18. Changes in the Essential Oil Composition in the Needles of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L. Under Anthropogenic Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asta Judzentiene

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable anthropogenic factors, such as air pollution, lead to biochemical responses in trees. Changes in the amounts of secondary metabolites may be early indicators of invisible injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate composition of the essential oils in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. growing in the areas affected by pollutant emissions of main factories in Lithuania: a nitrogen fertilizer factory (NFF, a cement factory (CF, and an oil refinery (OR. Totally, 14 pine stands were examined along transects from the factories (July 2005. Volatile components of the needles were extracted and analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Over 70 components of the essential oils were identified in current-year and 1-year-old needles.

  19. Photosynthesis: ancient, essential, complex, diverse .. and in need of improvement in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    A challenge to crop improvement is the fact that the photosynthetic process has been fine tuned by billions of years of natural selection, and is subject to deeply rooted genetic controls shaped in the native environments of the crop ancestors. These may be difficult to change and may not be optima...

  20. Bringing Climate Change into the Life Science Classroom: Essentials, Impacts on Life, and Addressing Misconceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Amy J.; Stark, Louisa A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is at the forefront of our cultural conversation about science, influencing everything from presidential debates to Leonardo DiCaprio's 2016 Oscar acceptance speech. The topic is becoming increasingly socially and scientifically relevant but is no closer to being resolved. Most high school students take a life science course but…

  1. Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard P; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G; Palmer, Matthew D; Roberts, Malcolm; Smith, Doug; Vidale, Pier-Luigi

    2014-01-01

    Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985–1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm−2) is lower than for the 2000–2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm−2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r∼0.6) over the 1985–2012 period. PMID:25821270

  2. Strengthening CERN and particle physics in a changing global environment

    CERN Multimedia

    2016-01-01

    As we welcome Romania as our 22nd Member State in late July, now is a good time to reflect on the geographical enlargement process that was initiated in 2010.   Let me begin by setting the context. CERN operates in an increasingly complex and globalised world. Political and economic developments in the European neighbourhood and well beyond can have an impact on our work – directly or indirectly, in the short term or in a much longer perspective. We need to anticipate that change as far as we can, while also being agile enough to meet the challenges that we do not expect. The UK’s EU referendum on 23 June is a case in point. Because CERN is an organisation founded to facilitate cooperation across borders, Brexit is an uncomfortable truth to many of us. It is, nevertheless, the outcome of the political processes of one of our founding Member States, and is something we must respect. Whatever direction the UK now takes, we will be working with the country’s particle ph...

  3. The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Historical and 21st century global precipitation changes are investigated using data from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmosphere-Ocean-General-Circulation-Models (AOGCMs) and a simple energy-balance model. In the simple model, precipitation change in response to a given top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is calculated as the sum of a response to the surface warming and a direct ‘adjustment’ response to the atmospheric radiative forcing. This simple model allows the adjustment in global mean precipitation to atmospheric radiative forcing from different forcing agents to be examined separately and emulates the AOGCMs well. During the historical period the AOGCMs simulate little global precipitation change despite an increase in global temperature—at the end of the historical period, global multi-model mean precipitation has increased by about 0.03 mm day-1, while the global multi-model mean surface temperature has warmed by about 1 K, both relative to the pre-industrial control means. This is because there is a large direct effect from CO2 and black carbon atmospheric forcing that opposes the increase in precipitation from surface warming. In the 21st century scenarios, the opposing effect from black carbon declines and the increase in global precipitation due to surface warming dominates. The cause of the spread between models in the global precipitation projections (which can be up to 0.25 mm day-1) is examined and found to come mainly from uncertainty in the climate sensitivity. The spatial distribution of precipitation change is found to be dominated by the response to surface warming. It is concluded that AOGCM global precipitation projections are in line with expectations based on our understanding of how the energy and water cycles are physically linked.

  4. Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

    2015-04-01

    Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

  5. Global health governance: commission on social determinants of health and the imperative for change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Ruth; Taylor, Sebastian; Marmot, Michael

    2010-01-01

    In May 2009 the World Health Assembly passed a resolution on reducing health inequities through action on the social determinants of health, based on the work of the global Commission on Social Determinants of Health, 2005-2008. The Commission's genesis and findings raise some important questions for global health governance. We draw out some of the essential elements, themes, and mechanisms that shaped the Commission. We start by examining the evolving nature of global health and the Commission's foundational inspiration--the universal pattern of health inequity and the imperative, driven by a sense of social justice, to make better and more equal health a global goal. We look at how the Commission was established, how it was structured internally, and how it developed external relationships--with the World Health Organization, with global networks of academics and practitioners, with country governments eager to spearhead action on health equity, and with civil society. We outline the Commission's recommendations as they relate to the architecture of global health governance. Finally, we look at how the Commission is catalyzing a movement to bring social determinants of health to the forefront of international and national policy discourse.

  6. Soil Microbial Community Responses to Long-Term Global Change Factors in a California Grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, K.; Peay, K.

    2015-12-01

    Soil fungal and bacterial communities act as mediators of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling, and interact with the aboveground plant community as both pathogens and mutualists. However, these soil microbial communities are sensitive to changes in their environment. A better understanding of the response of soil microbial communities to global change may help to predict future soil microbial diversity, and assist in creating more comprehensive models of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles. This study examines the effects of four global change factors (increased temperature, increased variability in precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and CO2 enrichment) on soil microbial communities at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), a full-factorial global change manipulative experiment on three hectares of California grassland. While similar studies have examined the effects of global change on soil microbial communities, few have manipulated more factors or been longer in duration than the JRGCE, which began field treatments in 1998. We find that nitrogen deposition, CO2 enrichment, and increased variability in precipitation significantly affect the structure of both fungal and bacterial communities, and explain more of the variation in the community structures than do local soil chemistry or aboveground plant community. Fungal richness is correlated positively with soil nitrogen content and negatively with soil water content. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), which associate closely with herbaceous plants' roots and assist in nutrient uptake, decrease in both richness and relative abundance in elevated CO2 treatments.

  7. Will Global Change Effect Primary Productivity in Coastal Ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothschild, Lynn J.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    Algae are the base of coastal food webs because they provide the source of organic carbon for the remaining members of the community. Thus, the rate that they produce organic carbon to a large extent controls the productivity of the entire ecosystem. Factors that control algal productivity range from the physical (e.g., temperature, light), chemical (e.g., nutrient levels) to the biological (e.g., grazing). Currently, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide surficial fluxes of ultraviolet radiation are rising. Both of these environmental variables can have a profound effect on algal productivity. Atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase surficial levels of dissolved inorganic carbon. Our laboratory and field studies of algal mats and phytoplankton cultures under ambient and elevated levels of pCO2 show that elevated levels of inorganic carbon can cause an increase in photosynthetic rates. In some cases, this increase will cause an increase in phytoplankton numbers. There may be an increase in the excretion of fixed carbon, which in turn may enhance bacterial productivity. Alternatively, in analogy with studies on the effect of elevated pCO2 on plants, the phytoplankton could change their carbon to nitrogen ratios, which will effect the feeding of the planktonic grazers. The seasonal depletion of stratospheric ozone has resulted in elevated fluxes of UVB radiation superimposed on the normal seasonal variation. Present surface UV fluxes have a significant impact on phytoplankton physiology, including the inhibition of the light and dark reactions of photosynthesis, inhibition of nitrogenase activity, inhibition of heterocyst formation, reduction in motility, increased synthesis of the UV-screening pigment scytonemin, and mutation. After reviewing these issues, recent work in our lab on measuring the effect of UV radiation on phytoplankton in the San Francisco Bay Estuary will be presented.

  8. [Changes in serum immunoglobulins in subjects with acute myocardial infarct and essential hypertension].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campisi, D; Paterna, S; Bivona, A; Cricchio, I; Cilluffo, P; Cannistraro, F; Furitano, G

    1983-12-30

    20 (12 men and 8 women) acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients and 17 (14 men and 3 women) patients with arterial hypertension (II degrees stage according to OMS) in comparison to controls age and sex matched, were studied, serum IgA, IgG, IgM were evaluated with radial immunodiffusion and serum IgE with RIA. Ho significant changes ef immunoglobulins were observed between hypertensive patients and controls; whereas a significant increase of IgM, IgG and IgE, with out changes of IgA, were shown in AMI patients. Serum Ig and IgM were significantly augmented in AMI patients in comparison to hypertensive patients.

  9. Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, van Hans; Vliet, van Jasper; Verburg, Peter H.

    2016-01-01

    Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms

  10. Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

  11. Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

    2015-01-01

    Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

  12. Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Lanen, Van H.A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change very likely impacts future hydrological drought characteristics across the world. Here, we quantify the impact of climate change on future low flows and associated hydrological drought characteristics on a global scale using an alternative drought identification approach that consi

  13. Citizenship for a Changing Global Climate: Learning from New Zealand and Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayward, Bronwyn; Selboe, Elin; Plew, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Young citizens under the age of 25?years make up just under half of the world's population. Globally, they face new, interrelated problems of dangerous environmental change, including increasing incidence of severe storms associated with a changing climate, and related new threats to human security. Addressing the complex challenge of climate…

  14. Quantifying biodiversity impacts of climate change and bioenergy: the role of integrated global scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meller, L.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Cabeza, M.

    2015-01-01

    The role of bioenergy in climate change mitigation is a topic of heated debate, as the demand for land may result in social and ecological conflicts. Biodiversity impacts are a key controversy, given that biodiversity conservation is a globally agreed goal under pressure due to both climate change a

  15. Enhancing Participation in the U.S. Global Change Research Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Washington, Warren; Lee, Kai; Arent, Doug; Avery, Susan; Chakos, Arrietta; Daszak, Peter; Dietz, Thomas; Ebi, Kristie L.; Fischhoff, Baruch; Grimm, Nancy B.; Jacoby, Henry; Janetos, Anthony C.; Kheshgi, Haroon S.; Moss, Richard H.; Noble, Ian; Oge, Margo; Segerson, Kathleen; Tierney, Kathleen; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

    2016-02-29

    The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a collection of 13 Federal entities charged by law to assist the United States and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change. As the understanding of global change has evolved over the past decades and as demand for scientific information on global change has increased, the USGCRP has increasingly focused on research that can inform decisions to cope with current climate variability and change, to reduce the magnitude of future changes, and to prepare for changes projected over coming decades. Overall, the current breadth and depth of research in these agencies is insufficient to meet the country's needs, particularly to support decision makers. This report provides a rationale for evaluating current program membership and capabilities and identifying potential new agencies and departments in the hopes that these changes will enable the program to more effectively inform the public and prepare for the future. It also offers actionable recommendations for adjustments to the methods and procedures that will allow the program to better meet its stated goals.

  16. Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagemann, S.; Chen, Cui; Clark, D.B.; Folwell, S.; Gosling, S.; Haddeland, I.; Hanasaki, N.; Heinke, J.; Ludwig, F.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global climate (three) and hydrological 5 models (eight) were used to systematically

  17. Threshold responses to interacting global changes in a California grassland ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Christopher [Carnegie Inst. of Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Mooney, Harold [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Vitousek, Peter [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-02-02

    Building on the history and infrastructure of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment, we conducted experiments to explore the potential for single and combined global changes to stimulate fundamental type changes in ecosystems that start the experiment as California annual grassland. Using a carefully orchestrated set of seedling introductions, followed by careful study and later removal, the grassland was poised to enable two major kinds of transitions that occur in real life and that have major implications for ecosystem structure, function, and services. These are transitions from grassland to shrubland/forest and grassland to thistle patch. The experiment took place in the context of 4 global change factors – warming, elevated CO2, N deposition, and increased precipitation – in a full-factorial array, present as all possible 1, 2, 3, and 4-factor combinations, with each combination replicated 8 times.

  18. Spatial Patterns and Temperature Predictions of Tuna Fatty Acids: Tracing Essential Nutrients and Changes in Primary Producers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pethybridge, Heidi R; Parrish, Christopher C; Morrongiello, John; Young, Jock W; Farley, Jessica H; Gunasekera, Rasanthi M; Nichols, Peter D

    2015-01-01

    Fatty acids are among the least understood nutrients in marine environments, despite their profile as key energy components of food webs and that they are essential to all life forms. Presented here is a novel approach to predict the spatial-temporal distributions of fatty acids in marine resources using generalized additive mixed models. Fatty acid tracers (FAT) of key primary producers, nutritional condition indices and concentrations of two essential long-chain (≥C20) omega-3 fatty acids (EFA) measured in muscle of albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, sampled in the south-west Pacific Ocean were response variables. Predictive variables were: location, time, sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla), and phytoplankton biomass at time of catch and curved fork length. The best model fit for all fatty acid parameters included fish length and SST. The first oceanographic contour maps of EFA and FAT (FATscapes) were produced and demonstrated clear geographical gradients in the study region. Predicted changes in all fatty acid parameters reflected shifts in the size-structure of dominant primary producers. Model projections show that the supply and availability of EFA are likely to be negatively affected by increases in SST especially in temperate waters where a 12% reduction in both total fatty acid content and EFA proportions are predicted. Such changes will have large implications for the availability of energy and associated health benefits to high-order consumers. Results convey new concerns on impacts of projected climate change on fish-derived EFA in marine systems.

  19. CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

    2015-06-26

    Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature.

  20. Transient carbon isotope changes in complex systems: Finding the global signal, embracing the local signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, G. J.; Schneider-Mor, A.; Filley, T. R.

    2008-12-01

    Global, transient carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) in the geological record are increasingly invoked as evidence of short-lived changes in carbon fluxes to/from the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere (exogenic) system. Reconstructing the dynamics of carbon cycle perturbation and response during such events requires that the global extent, magnitude, and temporal pattern of carbon isotope change are well understood. Unfortunately, no simple, globally integrated measure of exogenic δ13C change exists in the geological record: during major global perturbations even the best-case candidates such as deep-ocean carbonate δ13C values likely respond to a complex of factors including ocean carbonate chemistry and circulation. Here we consider the utility of organic carbon isotope records from two complex depositional systems common in the geological record, fossil soils and continental margin sediments, which are of interest in terms of their relationship to organic carbon cycling and records of past ecological change. Within both systems changes in ecology, climate, carbon source, residence time, and molecular composition have clear potential to modulate the preserved record of global exogenic δ13C change, compromising 1st-order interpretations of bulk or compound-specific isotopic records. Process-explicit eco- geochemical models, ideally combined with multi-substrate data, provide one approach to the isolation of global δ13C change and identification of local or regional processes reflected in such records. Examples from both systems drawn from ongoing work on the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum illustrate the potential pitfalls, as well as opportunities, afforded by coupled data/model assessment of transient δ13C changes in complex systems.

  1. Global warming and ice ages: I. prospects for physics based modulation of global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Hyde, R.

    1996-08-15

    It has been suggested that large-scale climate changes, mostly due to atmospheric injection of greenhouse gases connected with fossil-fired energy production, should be forestalled by internationally-agreed reductions in, e.g., electricity generation. The potential economic impacts of such limitations are obviously large: greater than or equal to $10{sup 11}/year. We propose that for far smaller - less than 1% - the mean thermal effects of greenhouse gases may be obviated in any of several distinct ways, some of them novel. These suggestions are all based on scatterers that prevent a small fraction of solar radiation from reaching all or part of the Earth. We propose research directed to quite near-term realization of one or more of these inexpensive approaches to cancel the effects of the greenhouse gas injection. While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable. The proposals in this paper may lead to quite practical methods to reduce or eliminate all climate failures.

  2. Global Warming and Ice Ages: I. Prospects For Physics Based Modulation of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teller, E.; Wood, L.; Hyde, R.

    1996-08-15

    It has been suggested that large-scale climate changes, mostly due to atmospheric injection of greenhouse gases connected with fossil-fired energy production, should be forestalled by internationally-agreed reductions in, e.g., electricity generation. The potential economic impacts of such limitations are obviously large: greater than or equal to $10{sup 11}/year. We propose that for far smaller - less than 1% - the mean thermal effects of greenhouse gases may be obviated in any of several distinct ways, some of them novel. These suggestions are all based on scatterers that prevent a small fraction of solar radiation from reaching all or part of the Earth. We propose research directed to quite near-term realization of one or more of these inexpensive approaches to cancel the effects of the greenhouse gas injection. While the magnitude of the climatic impact of greenhouse gases is currently uncertain, the prospect of severe failure of the climate, for instance at the onset of the next Ice Age, is undeniable. The proposals in this paper may lead to quite practical methods to reduce or eliminate all climate failures.

  3. Attribution of interminimum changes in global and hemispheric total electron content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmert, J. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; McDonald, S. E.; Vergados, P.

    2017-02-01

    We use a new data product of electron column density (total electron content, or TEC) maps to estimate and attribute the interminimum changes (the differences between annual averages centered on the 2008 and 1996 solar minima) in TEC global and hemispheric averages (dividing the globe in three different ways). We attribute the observed changes to corresponding changes in solar and geomagnetic activity. The new TEC map product was constructed with temporally consistent processing, and it resolves some of the apparent inconsistencies of earlier studies. The estimated global average TEC interminimum change is -19.3% ± 1.0% (2σ uncertainty), of which -9.1% is attributable to the interminimum change in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance (as represented by the F10.7 index), -2.2% is attributable to the change in geomagnetic activity (Kp index), and -9.3% remains unattributed. The hemispheric results are very similar to the global results, but the values tend to be slightly larger in the Southern Hemisphere, at low latitudes, and at night, compared to the opposing respective hemispheres. The interminimum changes and temporal variations of thermospheric mass density anomalies (i.e., the difference between the data and the empirical model) are very similar to those of the global and hemispheric TEC residuals, suggesting that they are driven by a common, globally distributed mechanism. Thermospheric composition changes and additional (unobserved) decreases in solar EUV irradiance are possible mechanisms behind the TEC and mass density unattributed changes; we estimate a plausible range of -6% to -13% for the solar EUV irradiance interminimum change.

  4. Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krumhansl, Kira A.; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J.; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus, Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.; Salomon, Anne K.; Shears, Nick T.; Wernberg, Thomas; Anderson, Robert J.; Barrett, Nevell S.; Buschmann, Alejandro H.; Carr, Mark H.; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Derrien-Courtel, Sandrine; Edgar, Graham J.; Edwards, Matt; Estes, James A.; Goodwin, Claire; Kenner, Michael C.; Kushner, David J.; Nunn, Julia; Steneck, Robert S.; Vásquez, Julio; Watson, Jane; Witman, Jon D.

    2016-01-01

    Kelp forests (Order Laminariales) form key biogenic habitats in coastal regions of temperate and Arctic seas worldwide, providing ecosystem services valued in the range of billions of dollars annually. Although local evidence suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of stressors, no comprehensive global analysis of change in kelp abundances currently exists. Here, we build and analyze a global database of kelp time series spanning the past half-century to assess regional and global trends in kelp abundances. We detected a high degree of geographic variation in trends, with regional variability in the direction and magnitude of change far exceeding a small global average decline (instantaneous rate of change = −0.018 y−1). Our analysis identified declines in 38% of ecoregions for which there are data (−0.015 to −0.18 y−1), increases in 27% of ecoregions (0.015 to 0.11 y−1), and no detectable change in 35% of ecoregions. These spatially variable trajectories reflected regional differences in the drivers of change, uncertainty in some regions owing to poor spatial and temporal data coverage, and the dynamic nature of kelp populations. We conclude that although global drivers could be affecting kelp forests at multiple scales, local stressors and regional variation in the effects of these drivers dominate kelp dynamics, in contrast to many other marine and terrestrial foundation species. PMID:27849580

  5. Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, L.

    2014-12-01

    Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust

  6. Partnering for change in chains : on the capacity of partnerships to promote sustainable change in global agricultural commodity chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bitzer, V.C.

    2011-01-01

    Partnerships mirror the changing nature of the relationships among state, business and civil society organizations, and are often considered as innovative mechanisms to overcome single actor failure in the context of globalization. This thesis analyzes the capacity of partnerships to promote sustain

  7. Partnering for Change in Chains: the capacity of Partnerships to Promote Sustainable Change in Global Agrifood Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bitzer, V.C.

    2012-01-01

    Intersectoral partnerships mirror the changing nature of the relationships among state, business and civil society organizations, and are often considered innovative mechanisms to overcome single actor failure in the context of globalization. This article analyzes the capacity of partnerships to pro

  8. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, NE

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive numerical modeling framework was developed to estimate the effects of collective global changes upon ozone pollution in the US in 2050. The framework consists of the global climate and chemistry models, PCM (Parallel Climate Model) and MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers v.2), coupled with regional meteorology and chemistry models, MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model) and CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model). The modeling system was applied for two...

  9. Now what do people know about global climate change? Survey studies of educated laypeople.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Travis William; Bostrom, Ann; Read, Daniel; Morgan, M Granger

    2010-10-01

    In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general "good environmental practices" and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.

  10. A quantitative analysis of the causes of the global climate change research distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasgaard, Maya; Strange, Niels

    2013-01-01

    During the last decades of growing scientific, political and public attention to global climate change, it has become increasingly clear that the present and projected impacts from climate change, and the ability adapt to the these changes, are not evenly distributed across the globe. This paper...... is biased toward richer countries, which are more stable and less corrupt, have higher school enrolment and expenditures on research and development, emit more carbon and are less vulnerable to climate change. Similarly, the production of knowledge, analyzed by author affiliations, is skewed away from...... the poorer, fragile and more vulnerable regions of the world. A quantitative keywords analysis of all publications shows that different knowledge domains and research themes dominate across regions, reflecting the divergent global concerns in relation to climate change. In general, research on climate change...

  11. Characteristics and laws of MODS coupling relation in arid zone under global change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ranghui; ZHANG Huizhi; HUANG Qing

    2006-01-01

    Global change has influenced the distribution pattern and spatio-temporal changes of resources in arid zone, and has restrained the land use and land cover change, which is shown by water-heat state, landscape structure, climate effect, and human activities. The above-mentioned characteristics have a close coupling relation with the mountain-oasisdesert system (MODS). The climate in Central Asia arid zone is warm and wet, which is different from that in northern China which takes a tendency of aridity, and the mechanism has restricted the characteristics and laws of MODS. Systematic interface characteristics and process, especially the formation,transformation and consumption laws of water resource reflect directly MODS's response to global change in arid zone. Spatio-temporal pattern, dynamic change, scale change and coupling mode of MODS reflect the ecology mechanism between the systems and within the systems.

  12. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-07

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  13. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  14. Global patterns of kelp forest change over the past half-century

    OpenAIRE

    Kira A. Krumhansl; Okamoto, Daniel K.; Rassweiler, Andrew; Novak, Mark; Bolton, John J; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Connell, Sean D.; Johnson, Craig R.; Konar, Brenda; Ling, Scott D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Norderhaug, Kjell M.; Pérez-Matus,Alejandro; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Reed, Daniel C.

    2016-01-01

    Kelp forests support diverse and productive ecological communities throughout temperate and arctic regions worldwide, providing numerous ecosystem services to humans. Literature suggests that kelp forests are increasingly threatened by a variety of human impacts, including climate change, overfishing, and direct harvest. We provide the first globally comprehensive analysis of kelp forest change over the past 50 y, identifying a high degree of variation in the magnitude and direction of change...

  15. European vulnerability to global change: a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Metzger, M.J.

    2005-01-01

    Many aspects of our planet are changing rapidly because of to human activities and these changes are expected to accelerate during the next decades. For example, forest area in the tropics is declining, many species are threatened with extinction, and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide results in global warming. Many of these changes will have an immediate and strong effect on agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, human health and well-being, and on amenities such as traditional landscapes. Fur...

  16. Policies, Actions and Effects for China s Forestry Response to Global Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a great concern of various countries, the public and science community, and forest plays an important role in mitigating climate change. The paper made a comprehensive analysis regarding the policy selections of China to promote forestry response to the global climate change, and elaborated the concrete actions and achievements in this regard. Policy selections include: 1) Reinforce tree planting and afforestation, increase the forested area and enhance the capacity of carbon sequestration...

  17. Molecular and structural changes induced by essential oil treatments in Vicia faba roots detected by FTIR and FTNIR spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecozzi, Mauro; Sturchio, Elena; Boccia, Priscilla; Zanellato, Miriam; Meconi, Claudia; Peleggi, Francesco

    2016-12-24

    Essential oils have recognized antimicrobial and antifungal properties which allow their utilization in agriculture like an alternative to pesticides, but their utilization requires the knowledge of all the potential structural changes and damages produced by the interaction with the vegetal organisms. In this paper, we investigated the effects of two essential oils, the tea tree oil (TTO) and the mixture of clove and rosemary oils (C + R), on the molecular structure of Vicia faba roots by Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and Fourier near infrared transform (FTNIR) spectroscopy. FTIR spectroscopy showed structural modifications of the absorption bands related to DNA (1100 and 1050 cm(-1), carbohydrate backbones, and nucleotide bands within 900 and 850 cm(-1)), proteins (1700 and 1600 cm(-1) amide I band, 1580 and 1520 cm(-1) amide II band), and lipids (methylene group of aliphatic chains between 2950 and 2800 cm(-1)). The changes in the secondary structures of proteins consisted of a denaturation depending on increased presence of random coil structures. In addition, in the samples treated with TTO oils, we observed the presence of protein oxidation, an effect negligible instead for the C + R-treated samples. The modified shapes of the infrared methyl bands of aliphatic chains suggested an increased lipid disorder which could also determine lipid peroxidation. The changes observed for the DNA structures at the highest concentration of the above essential oils can be related to the genotoxic effect of eugenol, an important constituent of both TTO and C + R mixture oils. FTNIR spectroscopy showed the modified shape of the second overtone bands belonging to methyl and methylene groups, between 8500 and 8000 cm(-1). This confirmed the increased lipid disorders already observed by FTIR spectroscopy. The results obtained on the probe organism V. faba show that FTIR and FTNIR spectroscopy can become a useful support to the conventional cytogenetic tests used

  18. Changes in the essential oil composition in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) under anthropogenic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judzentiene, Asta; Stikliene, Aida; Kupcinskiene, Eugenija

    2007-03-21

    Unfavorable anthropogenic factors, such as air pollution, lead to biochemical responses in trees. Changes in the amounts of secondary metabolites may be early indicators of invisible injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate composition of the essential oils in the needles of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in the areas affected by pollutant emissions of main factories in Lithuania: a nitrogen fertilizer factory (NFF), a cement factory (CF), and an oil refinery (OR). Totally, 14 pine stands were examined along transects from the factories (July 2005). Volatile components of the needles were extracted and analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Over 70 components of the essential oils were identified in current-year and 1-year-old needles. Along the CF transect for current-year needles, the percentage of diterpenes was decreasing with the increasing pH of the pine bark (r = -0.582; p us to distinguish the most contrasting stands according to the concentration of air pollutants. Current-year needles were more effective as indicators of the effects of pollution than 1-year-old needles in the case of the NFF and the OR transects, and both-aged needles were equally valuable in the case of the CF transect. The changes detected in the proportions of components of the essential oils in the needles of the trees affected by the industrial emissions may play a significant role in modifying the susceptibility of the pine stands to the biotic factors, and also may alter emissions of terpenes from the stands to the atmosphere.

  19. Coastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its prevention

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Cai; Xianze Su; Jianhui Liu; Bing Li; Gang Lei

    2009-01-01

    The general characteristics of coastal erosion in China are described in terms of the regional geography,the form of erosion,the causes of erosion,and the challenges we are facing.The paper highlights the relationship between coastal erosion and sea level rises,storm waves and tides,and the influence of global climate changes on coastal erosion along the coastal zone of China.The response of the risk of coastal erosion in China to climate changes has obvious regional diversity.Research into and the forecasting of the effects of climate changes on coastal erosion are systemic work involving the natural environment,social economy,and alongshore engineering projects in the global system.Facing global warming and continual enhancement of coastal erosion,suggestions for basic theoretical study,prevention technology,management system assurance,and strengthening the legal system are presented here.

  20. Investigation on the Patterns of Global Vegetation Change Using a Satellite-Sensed Vegetation Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainong Li

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The pattern of vegetation change in response to global change still remains a controversial issue. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset compiled by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS was used for analysis. For the period 1982–2006, GIMMS-NDVI analysis indicated that monthly NDVI changes show homogenous trends in middle and high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere and within, or near, the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn; with obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity on a global scale over the past two decades. The former areas featured increasing vegetation activity during growth seasons, and the latter areas experienced an even greater amplitude in places where precipitation is adequate. The discussion suggests that one should be cautious of using the NDVI time-series to analyze local vegetation dynamics because of its coarse resolution and uncertainties.