WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing ecological conditions

  1. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  2. Metrics to assess ecological condition, change, and impacts in sandy beach ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlacher, Thomas A; Schoeman, David S; Jones, Alan R; Dugan, Jenifer E; Hubbard, David M; Defeo, Omar; Peterson, Charles H; Weston, Michael A; Maslo, Brooke; Olds, Andrew D; Scapini, Felicita; Nel, Ronel; Harris, Linda R; Lucrezi, Serena; Lastra, Mariano; Huijbers, Chantal M; Connolly, Rod M

    2014-11-01

    Complexity is increasingly the hallmark in environmental management practices of sandy shorelines. This arises primarily from meeting growing public demands (e.g., real estate, recreation) whilst reconciling economic demands with expectations of coastal users who have modern conservation ethics. Ideally, shoreline management is underpinned by empirical data, but selecting ecologically-meaningful metrics to accurately measure the condition of systems, and the ecological effects of human activities, is a complex task. Here we construct a framework for metric selection, considering six categories of issues that authorities commonly address: erosion; habitat loss; recreation; fishing; pollution (litter and chemical contaminants); and wildlife conservation. Possible metrics were scored in terms of their ability to reflect environmental change, and against criteria that are widely used for judging the performance of ecological indicators (i.e., sensitivity, practicability, costs, and public appeal). From this analysis, four types of broadly applicable metrics that also performed very well against the indicator criteria emerged: 1.) traits of bird populations and assemblages (e.g., abundance, diversity, distributions, habitat use); 2.) breeding/reproductive performance sensu lato (especially relevant for birds and turtles nesting on beaches and in dunes, but equally applicable to invertebrates and plants); 3.) population parameters and distributions of vertebrates associated primarily with dunes and the supralittoral beach zone (traditionally focused on birds and turtles, but expandable to mammals); 4.) compound measurements of the abundance/cover/biomass of biota (plants, invertebrates, vertebrates) at both the population and assemblage level. Local constraints (i.e., the absence of birds in highly degraded urban settings or lack of dunes on bluff-backed beaches) and particular issues may require alternatives. Metrics - if selected and applied correctly - provide

  3. Research on Land Ecological Condition Investigation and Monitoring Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Chunyan; Guo, Xudong; Chen, Yuqi

    2017-04-01

    The ecological status of land reflects the relationship between land use and environmental factors. At present, land ecological situation in China is worrying. According to the second national land survey data, there are about 149 million acres of arable land located in forests and grasslands area in Northeast and Northwest of China, Within the limits of the highest flood level, at steep slope above 25 degrees; about 50 million acres of arable land has been in heavy pollution; grassland degradation is still serious. Protected natural forests accounted for only 6% of the land area, and forest quality is low. Overall, the ecological problem has been eased, but the local ecological destruction intensified, natural ecosystem in degradation. It is urgent to find out the situation of land ecology in the whole country and key regions as soon as possible. The government attaches great importance to ecological environment investigation and monitoring. Various industries and departments from different angles carry out related work, most of it about a single ecological problem, the lack of a comprehensive surveying and assessment of land ecological status of the region. This paper established the monitoring index system of land ecological condition, including Land use type area and distribution, quality of cultivated land, vegetation status and ecological service, arable land potential and risk, a total of 21 indicators. Based on the second national land use survey data, annual land use change data and high resolution remote sensing data, using the methods of sample monitoring, field investigation and statistical analysis to obtain the information of each index, this paper established the land ecological condition investigation and monitoring technology and method system. It has been improved, through the application to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, the northern agro-pastoral ecological fragile zone, and 6 counties (cities).

  4. Environmental and ecological changes associated with a marina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero, Natalie K; Dafforn, Katherine A; Coleman, Melinda A; Johnston, Emma L

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic modifications to waterways are common and their ecological consequences must be understood to effectively conserve local biodiversity. The facilitation of recreational boating activities often requires substantial alteration of natural areas, however the environmental and ecological consequences of such alterations are rarely described in the scientific literature. In this study, ecological and physico-chemical conditions were investigated in a recreational boating marina, located inside a marine park on the south-east coast of Australia. Recruitment panels were deployed for 8 weeks both inside and outside the marina, and differences in the composition of the developing fouling communities were observed. The recruitment of taxa, which often have short-lived larvae, was increased inside the marina (bryozoans, spirorbids and sponges) while the recruitment of taxa, which often have longer-lived larvae, was reduced or absent (barnacles, solitary ascidians and non-spirorbid polychaetes). Differences were also observed in environmental conditions inside the marina cf. directly outside. The marina environment had higher turbidity, temperature and pH along with higher concentrations of lead and copper in suspended sediments, while flow rates and trapped sediment loads were reduced inside the marina. The differences observed in the study suggest that there may be marked environmental changes associated with marina developments. The potential ecological consequences of these changes should be a primary consideration during the planning process, particularly for developments in locations of notable ecological value.

  5. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Alam, S.J.; Dijk, van J.; Rounsevell, T.; Spek, T.; Brink, van den A.

    2015-01-01

    Context Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  6. The feasibility of implementing an ecological network in The Netherlands under conditions of global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry; Rounsevell, Mark; Spek, Teun; van den Brink, Adri

    2015-01-01

    Context: Both global change and policy reform will affect the implementation of the National Ecological Network (NEN) in the Netherlands. Global change refers to a combination of changing groundwater tables arising from climate change and improved economic prospects for farming. Policy reform refers

  7. Measuring ecological change of aquatic macrophytes in Mediterranean rivers

    OpenAIRE

    Dodkins, Ian; Aguiar, Francisca; Rivaes, Rui; Albuquerque, António; Rodriguez-Gonzalez, Patricia; Ferreira, Maria Teresa

    2012-01-01

    A metric was developed for assessing anthropogenic impacts on aquatic macrophyte ecology by scoring macrophyte species along the main gradient of community change. A measure of ecological quality was then calculated by Weighted Averaging (WA) of these species scores at a monitoring site, and comparison to a reference condition score. This metric was used to illustrate the difficulties of developing aquatic macrophyte indices based on indicator species in Mediterranean rivers. The ...

  8. Florida Bay: A history of recent ecological changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fourqurean, J.W.; Robblee, M.B.

    1999-01-01

    Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Recent ecological changes (seagrass die-off, algal blooms, increased turbidity) to the Florida Bay ecosystem have focused the attention of the public, commercial interests, scientists, and resource managers on the factors influencing the structure and function of Florida Bay. Restoring Florida Bay to some historic condition is the goal of resource managers, but what is not clear is what an anthropogenically-unaltered Florida Bay would look like. While there is general consensus that human activities have contributed to the changes occurring in the Florida Bay ecosystem, a high degree of natural system variability has made elucidation of the links between human activity and Florida Bay dynamics difficult. Paleoecological analyses, examination of long-term datasets, and directed measurements of aspects of the ecology of Florida Bay all contribute to our understanding of the behavior of the bay, and allow quantification of the magnitude of the recent ecological changes with respect to historical variability of the system.

  9. Ecological responses to recent climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walther, Gian-Reto [Hannover Univ., Inst. of Geobotany, Hannover (Germany); Post, Eric [Pennsylvania State Univ., Dept. of Biology, University Park, PA (United States); Convey, Peter [British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Menzel, Annette [Technical Univ. Munich, Dept. of Ecology, Freising (Germany); Parmesan, Camille [Texas Univ., Patterson Labs., Integrative Biology Dept., Austin, TX (United States); Beebee, Trevor J.C. [Sussex Univ., School of Biological Sciences, Brighton (United Kingdom); Fromentin, Jean-Marc [IFREMER, Centre Halieutique Mediterraneen et Tropical, Sete, 34 (France); Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove [Queensland Univ., Centre for Marine Studies, St Lucia, QLD (Australia); Bairlein, Franz [Institute for Avian Research ' Vogelwarte Helgoland' , Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

    2002-03-28

    There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organisational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Author)

  10. Ecology for a changing earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, J.H.; Roughgarden, J.

    1990-01-01

    To forecast the ecological impact of global change, research initiatives are needed on the explicit role of humans in ecological systems, and on how ecological processes functioning at different spatial and temporal scales are coupled. Furthermore, to synthesize the results of ecological research for Congress, policymakers, and the general public, a new agency, called the United States Ecological Survey (USES) is urgently required. Also, a national commitment to environmental health, as exemplified by establishing a National Institutes of the Environment (NIE), should be a goal

  11. Assessing Ecological Impacts According to Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, S.; Lee, D. K.; Jeong, W.; Jeong, S. G.; Jin, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Land use patterns have changed by human activities, and it has affected the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, the conversion of forests into other land use has caused environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. The evaluation of species and their habitat can be preferentially considered to prevent or minimize the adverse effects of land use change. The objective of study is identifying the impacts of environmental conditions on forest ecosystems by comparing ecological changes with time series spatial data. Species distribution models were developed for diverse species with presence data and time-series environmental variables, which allowed comparison of the habitat suitability and connectivity. Habitat suitability and connectivity were used to estimate impacts of forest ecosystems due to land use change. Our result suggested that the size and degree of ecological impacts are were different depending on the properties of land use change. The elements and species were greatly affected by the land use change according to the results. This study suggested that a methodology for measuring the interference of land use change in species habitat and connectivity. Furthermore, it will help to conserve and manage forest by identifying priority conservation areas with influence factor and scale.

  12. Economic impacts of marine ecological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A.L.D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-01-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out

  13. Resilience, political ecology, and well-being: an interdisciplinary approach to understanding social-ecological change in coastal Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia F. Hoque

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The commodification of peasant livelihoods through export-oriented aquaculture has brought about significant social-ecological changes in low-lying coastal areas in many parts of Asia. A better understanding of the underlying drivers and distributional effects of these changes requires integration of social and ecological approaches that often have different epistemological origins. Resilience thinking has gained increased traction in social-ecological systems research because it provides a dynamic analysis of the cross-scalar interactions between multiple conditions and processes. However, the system-oriented perspective inherent in resilience thinking fails to acknowledge the heterogeneous values, interests, and power of social actors and their roles in navigating social-ecological change. Incorporation of political ecology and well-being perspectives can provide an actor-oriented analysis of the trade-offs associated with change and help to determine which state is desirable for whom. However, empirical demonstrations of such interdisciplinary approaches remain scarce. Here, we explore the combined application of resilience, political ecology, and well-being in investigating the root causes of social-ecological change and identifying the winners and losers of system transformation through empirical analysis of the differential changes in farming systems in two villages in coastal Bangladesh. Using the adaptive cycle as a structuring model, we examine the evolution of the shrimp aquaculture system over the past few decades, particularly looking at the power dynamics between households of different wealth classes. We found that although asymmetric land ownership and political ties enabled the wealthier households to reach their desired farming system in one village, social resilience achieved through memory, leadership, and crisis empowered poorer households to exercise their agency in another village. Material dimensions such as improved

  14. New ecology, global change, and forest politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sampson, N.

    1993-01-01

    Ecosystems constantly change. Some changes are caused by natural conditions that evolve at a very slow pace including climate change, species evolution and migration, and soil formation. Forests don't always respond to gradual changes in gradual ways, though gradual change may be hidden for years within the normal variation in the ecosystem. The industrial age has resulted in a rapid and continuing buildup of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons which trap heat in the greenhouse effect. Industrial processes also emit oxides of nitrogen and sulfur that change atmospheric chemistry and alter the nutrient input into ecosystems. Natural forests face a hard time adjusting to a rate of climatic change that is 3 to 10 times faster than species can migrate and that increases the occurrence of major windstorms. In the forest ecosystem where trees are removed or destroyed under rapid climatic change, conditions may not return to their original state, even if we try to restore it. When the ecosystem changes faster than the bureaucracy of the management agency, a serious problem exists. New understandings of ecology and global change may force new ways of thinking in these situations

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  16. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

  17. Integrating Social Science into the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network: Social Dimensions of Ecological Change and Ecological Dimensions of Social Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles L. Redman; J. Morgan Grove; Lauren H. Kuby; Lauren H. Kuby

    2004-01-01

    The integration of the social sciences into long-term ecological research is an urgent priority. To address this need, a group of social, earth, and life scientists associated with the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have articulated a conceptual framework for understanding the human dimensions of ecological change...

  18. Climate change and ecological public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Benny

    2015-02-17

    Climate change has been identified as a serious threat to human health, associated with the sustainability of current practices and lifestyles. Nurses should expand their health promotion role to address current and emerging threats to health from climate change and to address ecological public health. This article briefly outlines climate change and the concept of ecological public health, and discusses a 2012 review of the role of the nurse in health promotion.

  19. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  1. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  2. [Dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Boqi; Wang, Yixiang; Huang, Yibin; Ying, Zhaoyang; Huang, Qinlou

    2006-11-01

    The analysis on the dynamic changes of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Fujian Province showed that in 1999-2003, the ecological footprint per capita in the Province increased from 1.428 hm2 to 1.658 hm2, while the ecological capacity per capita decreased from 0.683 hm2 to 0.607 hm2, with an increased ecological deficit year after year. The contradiction between the ecological footprint and ecological capacity pricked up gradually, and the ecological environment was at risk. There existed a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of ecological footprint per capita. The main body of the demands was grassland and fossil fuel, accouting for 55.74% - 63.43% of the total, while their supply only occupied 0.77% - 0.82% and next to nothing of the ecological capacity per capita, respectively. As a whole, the ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP declined in the five years, indicating that the resources use efficiency in the Province was improved gradually. Based on the analysis of the present situation of the economic development and resources distribution in the Province, the strategies on reducing ecological deficit were put forward.

  3. Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kantanen, Juha; Løvendahl, Peter; Strandberg, Erling

    2015-01-01

    Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects...... to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation...

  4. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T J; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R

    2009-06-12

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  5. Evolution in plant populations as a driver of ecological changes in arthropod communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marc T.J.; Vellend, Mark; Stinchcombe, John R.

    2009-01-01

    Heritable variation in traits can have wide-ranging impacts on species interactions, but the effects that ongoing evolution has on the temporal ecological dynamics of communities are not well understood. Here, we identify three conditions that, if experimentally satisfied, support the hypothesis that evolution by natural selection can drive ecological changes in communities. These conditions are: (i) a focal population exhibits genetic variation in a trait(s), (ii) there is measurable directional selection on the trait(s), and (iii) the trait(s) under selection affects variation in a community variable(s). When these conditions are met, we expect evolution by natural selection to cause ecological changes in the community. We tested these conditions in a field experiment examining the interactions between a native plant (Oenothera biennis) and its associated arthropod community (more than 90 spp.). Oenothera biennis exhibited genetic variation in several plant traits and there was directional selection on plant biomass, life-history strategy (annual versus biennial reproduction) and herbivore resistance. Genetically based variation in biomass and life-history strategy consistently affected the abundance of common arthropod species, total arthropod abundance and arthropod species richness. Using two modelling approaches, we show that evolution by natural selection in large O. biennis populations is predicted to cause changes in the abundance of individual arthropod species, increases in the total abundance of arthropods and a decline in the number of arthropod species. In small O. biennis populations, genetic drift is predicted to swamp out the effects of selection, making the evolution of plant populations unpredictable. In short, evolution by natural selection can play an important role in affecting the dynamics of communities, but these effects depend on several ecological factors. The framework presented here is general and can be applied to other systems to

  6. Elucidation of circulation mechanism on climatic changing vapor caused by water field ecology system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, Shigeki; Doi, Taeko; Watanabe, Masataka; Inamori, Yuhei

    1999-01-01

    As climatic change caused by increase of carbon dioxide amounts emitted by industrial development is much anxious, it is well-known that water field ecology system relaxes change of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, which is a climatic changing gas and has a closed relationship to the earth warming, is caught from atmosphere in the water field ecology system to be fixed as organic carbon and constitutes a starting point of food chains thereafter. In this study, in order to examine change of carbon dioxide, which is one of climatic changing gas or greenhouse effect gas caused by water field ecology system, 14-C was added to microcosm, which constructs a water field ecology system model, to measure 14-C amounts in each organism. As a result, it was found that carbon transfer in the system could be examined. And, it was also found that it was possible to understand more precise flow of substances and to elucidate quantitatively absorption of carbon dioxide and flow of carbon thereafter under different conditions, by future attempts on upgrading precision such as changing amounts of adding RI, and so forth. (G.K.)

  7. Bayesian change-point analyses in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Bekcage; Lawrence Joseph; Patrick Belisle; David B. Wolfson; William J. Platt

    2007-01-01

    Ecological and biological processes can change from one state to another once a threshold has been crossed in space or time. Threshold responses to incremental changes in underlying variables can characterize diverse processes from climate change to the desertification of arid lands from overgrazing.

  8. Monitoring long-term ecological changes through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: science-based and policy relevant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, H; Brydges, T; Fenech, A; Lumb, A

    2001-01-01

    Ecological monitoring and its associated research programs have often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 case study sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitude of agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of less comprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change are measured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a variety of partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersed monitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects, describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information that facilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are better able to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.

  9. An ecological process model of systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

    2011-06-01

    In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

  10. Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

    2017-07-01

    A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Social-ecological enabling conditions for payments for ecosystem services

    OpenAIRE

    Heidi R. Huber-Stearns; Drew E. Bennett; Stephen Posner; Ryan C. Richards; Jenn Hoyle. Fair; Stella J. M. Cousins; Chelsie L. Romulo

    2017-01-01

    The concept of "enabling conditions" centers on conditions that facilitate approaches to addressing social and ecological challenges. Although multiple fields have independently addressed the concept of enabling conditions, the literature lacks a shared understanding or integration of concepts. We propose a more synthesized understanding of enabling conditions beyond disciplinary boundaries by focusing on the enabling conditions that influence the implementation of a range of environmental p...

  12. Ecological and biological systems under extreme conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zlobin, V S; Nenishkiene, V B

    1989-01-01

    The behaviour of biological and ecological systems under extreme conditions (high and low temperatures, electromagnetic fields of different frequencies, ultraviolet. X-ray and gamma radiation) is analyzed. The ecosystems of macro- and microalgae living in salt, brackinsh and fresh waters are considered in the evolutional aspect basing on their chemical and biochemical composition taking into account the mechanism of radionuclide uptake by water plant cells, osmotic regulation, water and ice structures, combined water in a living organism. The problems of life-support in cosmic flights and of mastering the planets of the Solar system, for instance Mars and Venus, utilizing some microalgae and bacteria with high adaptive properties are discussed. Abnormal water points and their role in the metabolism of a water plant cell are estimated. The 'life niches' are determined at the temperatures exceeding 100 deg C and the possibility of existence for living organisms in high pressure and temperature is grounded. Attempts are made to change the metabolism of the plant and animal cell by subjecting it to the action of electromagnetic and thermal fields, heavy water, chemical and pharmocological substances changing the structure of bound water. 333 refs.; 79 tabs.

  13. Climate change and an invasive, tropical milkweed: an ecological trap for monarch butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faldyn, Matthew J; Hunter, Mark D; Elderd, Bret D

    2018-05-01

    While it is well established that climate change affects species distributions and abundances, the impacts of climate change on species interactions has not been extensively studied. This is particularly important for specialists whose interactions are tightly linked, such as between the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and the plant genus Asclepias, on which it depends. We used open-top chambers (OTCs) to increase temperatures in experimental plots and placed either nonnative Asclepias curassavica or native A. incarnata in each plot along with monarch larvae. We found, under current climatic conditions, adult monarchs had higher survival and mass when feeding on A. curassavica. However, under future conditions, monarchs fared much worse on A. curassavica. The decrease in adult survival and mass was associated with increasing cardenolide concentrations under warmer temperatures. Increased temperatures alone reduced monarch forewing length. Cardenolide concentrations in A. curassavica may have transitioned from beneficial to detrimental as temperature increased. Thus, the increasing cardenolide concentrations may have pushed the larvae over a tipping point into an ecological trap; whereby past environmental cues associated with increased fitness give misleading information. Given the ubiquity of specialist plant-herbivore interactions, the potential for such ecological traps to emerge as temperatures increase may have far-reaching consequences. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. Testing the ecological consequences of evolutionary change using elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeyasingh, Punidan D; Cothran, Rickey D; Tobler, Michael

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the ecological consequences of evolutionary change is a central challenge in contemporary biology. We propose a framework based on the ˜25 elements represented in biology, which can serve as a conduit for a general exploration of poorly understood evolution-to-ecology links. In this framework, known as ecological stoichiometry, the quantity of elements in the inorganic realm is a fundamental environment, while the flow of elements from the abiotic to the biotic realm is due to the action of genomes, with the unused elements excreted back into the inorganic realm affecting ecological processes at higher levels of organization. Ecological stoichiometry purposefully assumes distinct elemental composition of species, enabling powerful predictions about the ecological functions of species. However, this assumption results in a simplified view of the evolutionary mechanisms underlying diversification in the elemental composition of species. Recent research indicates substantial intraspecific variation in elemental composition and associated ecological functions such as nutrient excretion. We posit that attention to intraspecific variation in elemental composition will facilitate a synthesis of stoichiometric information in light of population genetics theory for a rigorous exploration of the ecological consequences of evolutionary change.

  15. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  16. [Assessment on the changing conditions of ecosystems in key ecological function zones in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lin; Cao, Wei; Wu, Dan; Gong, Guo-li; Zhao, Guo-song

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, the dynamics of ecosystem macrostructure, qualities and core services during 2000 and 2010 were analyzed for the key ecological function zones of China, which were classified into four types of water conservation, soil conservation, wind prevention and sand fixation, and biodiversity maintenance. In the water conservation ecological function zones, the areas of forest and grassland ecosystems were decreased whereas water bodies and wetland were increased in the past 11 years, and the water conservation volume of forest, grassland and wetland ecosystems increased by 2.9%. This region needs to reverse the decreasing trends of forest and grassland ecosystems. In the soil conservation ecological function zones, the area of farmland ecosystem was decreased, and the areas of forest, grassland, water bodies and wetland ecosystems were increased. The total amount of the soil erosion was reduced by 28.2%, however, the soil conservation amount of ecosystems increased by 38.1%. In the wind prevention and sand fixation ecological function zones, the areas of grassland, water bodies and wetland ecosystems were decreased, but forest and farmland ecosystems were increased. The unit amount of the soil. wind erosion was reduced and the sand fixation amount of ecosystems increased lightly. In this kind of region that is located in arid and semiarid areas, ecological conservation needs to reduce farmland area and give priority to the protection of the original ecological system. In the biodiversity maintenance ecological function zones, the areas of grassland and desert ecosystems were decreased and other types were increased. The human disturbances showed a weakly upward trend and needs to be reduced. The key ecological function zones should be aimed at the core services and the protecting objects, to assess quantitatively on the effectiveness of ecosystem conservation and improvement.

  17. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  18. Morphological and ecological preadaptations as the basis of bird synanthropization under transformed environment conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakhimov, I. I.; Ibragimova, K. K.

    2018-01-01

    Bird synanthropization is connected with a thorough and serious reconstruction of their biology and is a demonstration of changes currently occurring in the biosphere due to human influence. Nutritional and nesting conditions as well as protection due to urban characteristics are advantage factors that affect their populations. Under these conditions, the adaptive potential of species can be realized. Adaptations to a new and in-distinctive environment appear due to preadaptations. The synanthropization process of species happens without speciation by expression of existing genetic variation of morphological and ecological characteristics.

  19. Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, Phillip Anthony

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze climate change and ecological destruction through the prism of the core general principles of political economy. The paper starts with the principle of historical specificity, and the various waves of climate change through successive cooler and warmer periods on planet Earth, including the most recent climate change escalation through the open circuit associated with the treadmill of production. Then we scrutinize the principle of contradiction associated with the disembedded economy, social costs, entropy and destructive creation. The principle of uneven development is then explored through core-periphery dynamics, ecologically unequal exchange, metabolic rift and asymmetric global (in)justice. The principles of circular and cumulative causation (CCC) and uncertainty are then related to climate change dynamics through non-linear transformations, complex interaction of dominant variables, and threshold effects. Climate change and ecological destruction are impacting on most areas, especially the periphery, earlier and more intensely than previously thought likely. A political economy approach to climate change is able to enrich the analysis of ecological economics and put many critical themes in a broad context. (author)

  20. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Britta L Timpane-Padgham

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9, population- (6, community- (7, ecosystem- (7, or process-level attributes (16. Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1 including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2 considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3 certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to

  2. A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timpane-Padgham, Britta L; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie

    2017-01-01

    Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer

  3. Ecological Footprint in relation to Climate Change Strategy in Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belčáková, Ingrid; Diviaková, Andrea; Belaňová, Eliška

    2017-10-01

    Ecological footprint determines how much natural resources are consumed by an individual, city, region, state or all inhabitants of our planet in order to ensure their requirements and needs. It includes all activities, from food consumption, housing, transport to waste produced and allows us to compare particular activities and their impacts on the environment and natural resources. Ecological footprint is important issue for making sustainable development concept more popular using simplifications, which provide the public with basic information on situation on our planet. Today we know calculations of global (worldwide), national and local ecological footprints. During our research in cities, we were concentrated on calculation of city’s ecological footprint. The article tries to outline theoretical and assumptions and practical results of climate change consequences in cities of Bratislava and Nitra (Slovakia), to describe potential of mitigating adverse impacts of climate change and to provide information for general and professional public on theoretical assumptions in calculating ecological footprint. The intention is to present innovation of ecological footprint calculation, taking into consideration ecological stability of a city (with a specific focus on micro-climate functions of green areas). Present possibilities to reduce ecological footprint are presented.

  4. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  5. Bringing an ecological view of change to Landsat-based remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Robert E.; Andrefouet, Serge; Cohen, Warren; Gomez, Cristina; Griffiths, Patrick; Hais, Martin; Healey, Sean; Helmer, Eileen H.; Hostert, Patrick; Lyons, Mitchell; Meigs, Garrett; Pflugmacher, Dirk; Phinn, Stuart; Powell, Scott; Scarth, Peter; Susmita, Sen; Schroeder, Todd A.; Schneider, Annemarie; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Vogelmann, James; Wulder, Michael A.; Zhu, Zhe

    2014-01-01

    When characterizing the processes that shape ecosystems, ecologists increasingly use the unique perspective offered by repeat observations of remotely sensed imagery. However, the concept of change embodied in much of the traditional remote-sensing literature was primarily limited to capturing large or extreme changes occurring in natural systems, omitting many more subtle processes of interest to ecologists. Recent technical advances have led to a fundamental shift toward an ecological view of change. Although this conceptual shift began with coarser-scale global imagery, it has now reached users of Landsat imagery, since these datasets have temporal and spatial characteristics appropriate to many ecological questions. We argue that this ecologically relevant perspective of change allows the novel characterization of important dynamic processes, including disturbances, long-term trends, cyclical functions, and feedbacks, and that these improvements are already facilitating our understanding of critical driving forces, such as climate change, ecological interactions, and economic pressures.

  6. Ecological Factors Predict Transition Readiness/Self-Management in Youth With Chronic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javalkar, Karina; Johnson, Meredith; Kshirsagar, Abhijit V; Ocegueda, Sofia; Detwiler, Randal K; Ferris, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Health care transition readiness or self-management among adolescents and young adults (AYA) with chronic conditions may be influenced by factors related to their surrounding environment. Study participants were AYA diagnosed with a chronic condition and evaluated at pediatric- and adult-focused subspecialty clinics at the University of North Carolina Hospital Systems. All participants were administered a provider-administered self-management/transition-readiness tool, the UNC TRxANSITION Scale. Geographic area and associated characteristics (ecological factors) were identified for each participant's ZIP code using the published U.S. Census data. The Level 1 model of the hierarchical linear regression used individual-level predictors of transition readiness/self-management. The Level 2 model incorporated the ecological factors. We enrolled 511 AYA with different chronic conditions aged 12-31 years with the following characteristics: mean age of 20± 4 years, 45% white, 42% black, and 54% female. Participants represented 214 ZIP codes in or around North Carolina, USA. The Level 1 model showed that age, gender, and race were significant predictors of transition readiness/self-management. On adding the ecological factors in the Level 2 model, race was no longer significant. Participants from a geographic area with a greater percentage of females (β = .114, p = .005) and a higher median income (β = .126, p = .002) had greater overall transition readiness. Ecological factors also predicted subdomains of transition readiness/self-management. In this cohort of adolescents and young adults with different chronic conditions, ecological disparities such as sex composition, median income, and language predict self-management/transition readiness. It is important to take ecological risk factors into consideration when preparing patients for health self-management or transition. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

  7. Ecological economics and institutional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Lisi; Klitgaard, Kent

    2011-02-01

    Ecological economics remains unfinished in its effort to provide a framework for transforming the economy so that it is compatible with biophysical limits. Great strides have been made in valuing natural capital and ecosystem services and recognizing the need to limit the scale of economic activity, but the question of how to effectively transform the economy to limit the scale of economic activity remains unclear. To gain clarity about the institutional changes necessary to limit the scale of economic activity, it is essential that ecological economics understands the limitations of its neoclassical roots and expands its theoretical framework to include how markets are embedded in social and institutional structures. This has long been the domain of institutional economics and heterodox political economy. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  8. The biological consequences of climate changes: An ecological and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batie, S.S.; Shugart, H.H.

    1991-01-01

    The following subject areas are covered: (1) the level of climate change; (2) impacts of climate change on ecological systems (short-term (decadal), medium term (centenary), and long-term (millennial) effects); and (3) ecological consequences of climate change - evaluating the social costs (the problem of valuing consequences, intergenerational problem, and safe minimum standard strategies and policies)

  9. Classical Ecological Restoration and its Current Challenges: Assisted Migration as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar A. Gómez-Ruiz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.

  10. Future ecological studies of Brazilian headwater streams under global-changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Callisto

    Full Text Available This paper results from discussions triggered during the "Stream Ecology Symposium" that took place at the XIII Congress of the Brazilian Society of Limnology in September of 2011 in Natal, Brazil. Based on our experiences, we have raised several questions regarding ecological studies of headwater streams facing threats under global-changes and proposed numerous subjects to be addressed in future studies in Brazil. These studies deal with the necessity of knowing species biology and the elaboration of models to assess changes (which implies the availability of time-series or large-scale data sets; the ecology of riparian zones and the interchange of materials and energy across the land-water boundaries; forest conversions and standardized sampling strategies and data treatment to assess global change.

  11. Vulnerability of Oyster Resource Users to Ecological Change: Case Study from Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, A.; La Peyre, M.; Hall, S.; Dowty Beech, R.

    2016-02-01

    Knowledge of vulnerability provides the foundation for developing actions that minimize impacts on people while maximizing the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services including fisheries. As a result, it is becoming increasingly important to determine if resource-dependent people are vulnerable to ecological change as anthropogenic and climate-induced stressors affect resources in different ways. In coastal Louisiana, the current era of rapid marsh loss and abrupt environmental variation (e.g., sediment diversions) has the potential to undermine oyster-associated livelihoods for those most vulnerable. To evaluate vulnerability, we examined dimensions of social sensitivity and adaptive capacity using semi-structured interviews with three stakeholder groups in the oyster fishery of Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana. Results indicate that oyster owners/operators are highly dependent, and thus sensitive, to changes in the ecological conditions of the fishery due to high levels of occupational identity; however they are likely adaptable, reflected in their willingness to learn about new practices and evolve over time. In contrast, oyster fishers that do not own any portion of the business in which they operate are bad at coping with change and frequently hold negative or fatalistic views on financial planning. Overall, oyster resource users most vulnerable to ecological change will be those with high levels of stewardship, open-minded values, and a balanced perception of environment, as well as low to moderate levels of personal and financial buffers and trust. These results suggest that resource users with higher sensitivity to change are not necessarily most vulnerable because sensitivity may be offset by adaptive capacity. In other words, while sensitivity may determine the potential impact of a climate- or human-induced ecological change to the oyster fishery, adaptive capacity can be a major influence on what impacts actually eventuate.

  12. THE CONSEQUENCES OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE ON ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC REGION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatially explicit identification of changes in ecological conditions over large areas is key to targeting and prioritizing areas for environmental protection and restoration by managers at watershed, basin, and regional scales. A critical limitation to this point has bee...

  13. How landscape ecology informs global land-change science and policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Audrey L. Mayer; Brian Buma; Am??lie Davis; Sara A. Gagn??; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Fiona K.A. Schmiegelow; Yolanda F. Wiersma; Janet Franklin

    2016-01-01

    Landscape ecology is a discipline that explicitly considers the influence of time and space on the environmental patterns we observe and the processes that create them. Although many of the topics studied in landscape ecology have public policy implications, three are of particular concern: climate change; land use–land cover change (LULCC); and a particular type of...

  14. Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land Use Changes in Da'an City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Zhang, J.; Li, B.

    2018-04-01

    Based on GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzed the land use change in Da'an city from 1995 to 2010. land-use ecological evaluation index was constructed to evaluate the land-use ecological risk of Da 'an city dynamically, and the land-use ecological risk level map was made, and then the distribution and change of the land-use ecological carrying capacity pattern of Da'an city were analyzed qualitatively. According to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity, the ecological environment of Da'an city has deteriorated in fifteen years. in 1995, the poor ecological environment area is mainly distributed in the northeast area of Da'an city, and the area is small, while the area of the central and southern areas is large; In 2010, the western region also appeared environmental degradation, the northeast environment deterioration is serious, the dominant area is reduced, and a small amount of deterioration in the central and southern regions. According to the study of this paper, in the future, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of this part of the area, strengthen vegetation coverage, reduce soil erosion, ensure the effective improvement of ecological environment.

  15. Perceptions of Socio-Ecological Changes and Their Implications on Changes in Farming Practises and Agricultural Land Uses in the Savannahs of Northeast Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kojo Boateng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the perceptions of local farming households in the savannahs of northeast Ghana about the patterns of ecological and social changes happening around them over the years. It then unpacks how those perceptions are influencing farming practices and agricultural land use changes. Theoretical and empirical understandings of the value of local resource users’ perceptual judgements about changes in their socio-ecological environment and how they respond to those changes have far-reaching implications for design of agricultural development and sustainable land management policies. Consideration of local perceptions offers more informed basis to design and implement agricultural development policies in ways that encourage active local participation, sustainable livelihoods development, and responsiveness to changing conditions. This departs from current conventional implementation systems, which are usually top-down and based on technical and political aspects of agricultural land management, but do not necessarily comprehend processes influencing the agency of local communities in shaping various agricultural land use outcomes.

  16. Ecological theories of systems and contextual change in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellaway, Rachel H; Bates, Joanna; Teunissen, Pim W

    2017-12-01

    Contemporary medical practice is subject to many kinds of change, to which both individuals and systems have to respond and adapt. Many medical education programmes have their learners rotating through different training contexts, which means that they too must learn to adapt to contextual change. Contextual change presents many challenges to medical education scholars and practitioners, not least because of a somewhat fractured and contested theoretical basis for responding to these challenges. There is a need for robust concepts to articulate and connect the various debates on contextual change in medical education. Ecological theories of systems encompass a range of concepts of how and why systems change and how and why they respond to change. The use of these concepts has the potential to help medical education scholars explore the nature of change and understand the role it plays in affording as well as limiting teaching and learning. This paper, aimed at health professional education scholars and policy makers, explores a number of key concepts from ecological theories of systems to present a comprehensive model of contextual change in medical education to inform theory and practice in all areas of medical education. The paper considers a range of concepts drawn from ecological theories of systems, including biotic and abiotic factors, panarchy, attractors and repellers, basins of attraction, homeostasis, resilience, adaptability, transformability and hysteresis. Each concept is grounded in practical examples from medical education. Ecological theories of systems consider change and response in terms of adaptive cycles functioning at different scales and speeds. This can afford opportunities for systematic consideration of responses to contextual change in medical education, which in turn can inform the design of education programmes, activities, evaluations, assessments and research that accommodates the dynamics and consequences of contextual change.

  17. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-01-01

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model. PMID:24384778

  18. Exploring the mechanisms of ecological land change based on the spatial autoregressive model: a case study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Liu, Zhifei; Wang, Peng; Liu, Guiying; Lu, Fucai

    2013-12-31

    Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran's I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  19. Spatially Explicit Landscape-Level Ecological Risks Induced by Land Use and Land Cover Change in a National Ecologically Representative Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change is driven by multiple influential factors from environmental and social dimensions in a land system. Land use practices of human decision-makers modify the landscape of the land system, possibly leading to landscape fragmentation, biodiversity loss, or environmental pollution—severe environmental or ecological impacts. While landscape-level ecological risk assessment supports the evaluation of these impacts, investigations on how these ecological risks induced by land use practices change over space and time in response to alternative policy intervention remain inadequate. In this article, we conducted spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis in Ezhou City, China. Our study area is a national ecologically representative region experiencing drastic land use and land cover change, and is regulated by multiple policies represented by farmland protection, ecological conservation, and urban development. We employed landscape metrics to consider the influence of potential landscape-level disturbance for the evaluation of landscape ecological risks. Using spatiotemporal simulation, we designed scenarios to examine spatiotemporal patterns in landscape ecological risks in response to policy intervention. Our study demonstrated that spatially explicit landscape ecological risk analysis combined with simulation-driven scenario analysis is of particular importance for guiding the sustainable development of ecologically vulnerable land systems.

  20. A guideline to study the feasibility domain of multi-trophic and changing ecological communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Chuliang; Rohr, Rudolf P; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-04-24

    The feasibility domain of an ecological community can be described by the set of environmental abiotic and biotic conditions under which all co-occurring and interacting species in a given site and time can have positive abundances. Mathematically, the feasibility domain corresponds to the parameter space compatible with positive (feasible) solutions at equilibrium for all the state variables in a system under a given model of population dynamics. Under specific dynamics, the existence of a feasible equilibrium is a necessary condition for species persistence regardless of whether the feasible equilibrium is dynamically stable or not. Thus, the size of the feasibility domain can also be used as an indicator of the tolerance of a community to random environmental variations. This has motivated a rich research agenda to estimate the feasibility domain of ecological communities. However, these methodologies typically assume that species interactions are static, or that input and output energy flows on each trophic level are unconstrained. Yet, this is different to how communities behave in nature. Here, we present a step-by-step quantitative guideline providing illustrative examples, computational code, and mathematical proofs to study systematically the feasibility domain of ecological communities under changes of interspecific interactions and subject to different constraints on the trophic energy flows. This guideline covers multi-trophic communities that can be formed by any type of interspecific interactions. Importantly, we show that the relative size of the feasibility domain can significantly change as a function of the biological information taken into consideration. We believe that the availability of these methods can allow us to increase our understanding about the limits at which ecological communities may no longer tolerate further environmental perturbations, and can facilitate a stronger integration of theoretical and empirical research. Copyright

  1. A GIS BASED EVALUATION OF LAND USE CHANGES AND ECOLOGICAL CONNECTIVITY INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poppy Indrayani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Makassar region is a significant land use planning and management issue, and has many impacts on the ecological function and structure landscape. With the development and infrastructure initiatives mostly around the urban centers, the urbanization and sprawl would impact the environment and the natural resources. Therefore, environmental management and careful strategic spatial planning in landscape ecological network is crucial when aiming for sustainable development. In this paper, the impacts of land use changes from 1997 to 2012 on the landscape ecological connectivity in the Makassar region were evaluated using Geographic Information System (GIS. The resulted GIS analysis clearly showed that land use changes occurring in the Makassar region have caused profound changes in landscape pattern. The spatial model had a predictive capability allowing the quantitative assessment and comparison of the impacts resulting from different land use on the ecological connectivity index. The results had an effective performance in identifying the vital ecological areas and connectivity prior to development plan in areas.

  2. Social-ecological system framework: initial changes and continuing challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D. McGinnis

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The social-ecological system (SES framework investigated in this special issue enables researchers from diverse disciplinary backgrounds working on different resource sectors in disparate geographic areas, biophysical conditions, and temporal domains to share a common vocabulary for the construction and testing of alternative theories and models that determine which influences on processes and outcomes are especially critical in specific empirical settings. We summarize changes that have been made to this framework and discuss a few remaining ambiguities in its formulation. Specifically, we offer a tentative rearrangement of the list of relevant attributes of governance systems and discuss other ways to make this framework applicable to policy settings beyond natural resource settings. The SES framework will continue to change as more researchers apply it to additional contexts; the main purpose of this article is to delineate the version that served as the basis for the theoretical innovations and empirical analyses detailed in other contributions to this special issue.

  3. Analysis of Ecological Condition of Taiga Topsoil During Commercial Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuriy Victorovich Sivkov

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the ecological properties of taiga topsoil during its commercial development and assesses the consequences of impact which will be made by the future facilities on the environment (taking into account the types of impact, their characteristics, the tendencies of transformation in the nature systems growing with the increase of service life, which were detected at the producing fields,sanitary and socioeconomic aspects of the facilities operation under the conditions of specific geographical complexes. The object of study included waspod-zolic and swamp-podzolic soils located in the Uvat district in Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Region of Tyumen region, in the area of potential impact of industrial facilities. The method of study implied the selection of soil specimens and their examination according to the standard practices. Ten specimens were taken from each of three areas of sampling. The specimens were subjected to officstudy in order to determine eleven parameters. The sources of impact made by the oil and gas facility on the environment were the material objects (buildings, constructions etc., elements and assemblies of basic and auxiliary technologies which result in pollutants emission. The major impact on topsoil at the stage of preparatory works and construction of facilities was the mechanical damage to the natural state of soils. It is primarily connected with sites stripping from forestry and ground leveling. The paper reviews the issues of ecological condition of topsoil and forecast of possible changes while commercial development of the studied area. A negative load on soil may be decreased through planning and implementation of organizational measures on assessment of current state of the topsoil within the fieldand environmental threat from basic and auxiliary industrial facilities.

  4. Did you say reference conditions? Ecological and socio-economic perspectives on the European Water Framework Directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouleau, Gabrielle; Pont, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Reference conditions refer to a stable state, ignoring non-linear and chaotic changes. • References were needed to set legally binding standards. • The DPSIR framework is based on a mitigation logic, which implies a stable reference. • Human activities do not equate pressures; Humans can create landscapes and ecosystems. • Setting goals for restoration requires a more adaptive management. - Abstract: Reference conditions are a key concept in the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD stipulates that the ecological status of a given water body shall be assessed by quantifying the deviation from a set of reference conditions that represent the stable state of an ecosystem in the absence of significant human disturbance. This concept is subject to criticism from several authors, particularly because underlying ecological concepts are weak and the distinction between natural variability and the effects of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem function will become increasingly artificial. In this paper, a sociologist and an aquatic ecologist examine the origin, successes and limits of the reference conditions concept and raise important questions about applying this concept in practice. We argue that this concept fitted specific needs from different institutions and stakeholders which promoted the WFD. Monitoring practices using this concept require some adaptations. Setting goals for restoration based on reference conditions is more problematic. A more adaptive management approach would be wiser

  5. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-03-22

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of morphological evolution along both lineages and compare them to environmental trends. Climatic changes do not have a direct influence on evolution, but they open new ecological opportunities by changing vegetation and allow the evolution of a specialist like Stephanomys. On the other hand, environmental changes are not dramatic enough to destroy the habitat of a long-term generalist like Apodemus. Hence, our results exemplify a case of an influence of climate on the evolution of specialist species, although a generalist species may persist without change.

  6. Exploring the Mechanisms of Ecological Land Change Based on the Spatial Autoregressive Model: A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualin Xie

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is one of the key resources and conditions for the survival of humans because it can provide ecosystem services and is particularly important to public health and safety. It is extremely valuable for effective ecological management to explore the evolution mechanisms of ecological land. Based on spatial statistical analyses, we explored the spatial disparities and primary potential drivers of ecological land change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China. The results demonstrated that the global Moran’s I value is 0.1646 during the 1990 to 2005 time period and indicated significant positive spatial correlation (p < 0.05. The results also imply that the clustering trend of ecological land changes weakened in the study area. Some potential driving forces were identified by applying the spatial autoregressive model in this study. The results demonstrated that the higher economic development level and industrialization rate were the main drivers for the faster change of ecological land in the study area. This study also tested the superiority of the spatial autoregressive model to study the mechanisms of ecological land change by comparing it with the traditional linear regressive model.

  7. Lichens as indicators of the ecological conditions of the habitat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rydzak, J

    1968-01-01

    The susceptibility of lichens to changes in the urban environment make them good indicators of the intensity of air pollution. Studies covering a number of large and small towns, mostly in Europe and some over an extended time, explored the toxic influence of air pollution on 12 species on lichens. A comparison after 18 years with the lichen flora of Lublin, Poland found the lichen population impoverished. The toxic hypothesis, which blames increased coal consumption and automobile use, is inadequate to explain the condition. The drought hypothesis, which postulates that the occurrence and distribution of individual species is the result of a complex of numerous macro- and microclimatic, edaphic, geographical, historical, and other factors, gives a uniform view of the problem and stimulates investigations of the ecology of lichens in their natural habitat as well as in towns. 40 references, 12 figures, 3 tables.

  8. Assessment of ecologically relevant hydrological change in China due to water use and reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Zhang

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available As China's economy booms, increasing water use has significantly affected hydro-geomorphic processes and thus the ecology of surface waters. A large variety of hydrological changes arising from human activities such as reservoir construction and management, water abstraction, water diversion and agricultural land expansion have been sustained throughout China. Using the global scale hydrological and water use model WaterGAP, natural and anthropogenically altered flow conditions are calculated, taking into account flow alterations due to human water consumption and 580 large reservoirs. The impacts resulting from water consumption and reservoirs have been analyzed separately. A modified "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration" approach is used to describe the human pressures on aquatic ecosystems due to anthropogenic alterations in river flow regimes. The changes in long-term average river discharge, average monthly mean discharge and coefficients of variation of monthly river discharges under natural and impacted conditions are compared and analyzed. The indicators show very significant alterations of natural river flow regimes in a large part of northern China and only minor alterations in most of southern China. The detected large alterations in long-term average river discharge, the seasonality of flows and the inter-annual variability in the northern half of China are very likely to have caused significant ecological impacts.

  9. Ecological advantages of partial migration as a conditional strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vélez-Espino, Luis A; McLaughlin, Robert L; Robillard, Melissa

    2013-05-01

    Partial migration is a widespread phenomenon characterized by migrant and resident forms from the same population. In phenotypically plastic taxa with indeterminate growth, resident and migrant ecophenotypes can differ in size and life history traits in ways expected to maximize fitness in the different habitats they exploit. Studies of partial migration in different taxa have advocated either density-dependence or environmental stochasticity as explanations for partial migration. We used a demographic approach for a virtual Brook Trout population to demonstrate the ecological consequences of partial migration under interacting density dependence and environmental stochasticity. The maintenance of partial migration as a conditional strategy in species/populations where resident and migrant forms exhibit life history asymmetries provides ecological advantages. We show that density-dependent migration is expected to increase population fitness under constant environmental conditions or low environmental variation, but decreases population fitness under high environmental variation. These conditions favor intermediate levels of migration as an advantageous tactic. However, there are threshold rates of return migration below which partial migration is no longer a viable tactic. Our modeling approach also allowed the exploration of the distribution of the population by life stage and habitat in response to the strength of density dependence, costs of migration, and return rates, and demonstrated the importance of the conservation of ecophenotypes in partially migratory populations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquatic habitats and freshwater taxa (fishes and aquatic invertebrates) in arid Australia. We also identify methods of recognizing likely future refugia and approaches to assessing the vulnerability of arid-adapted freshwater biota to a warming and drying climate. Evolutionary refugia in arid areas are characterized as permanent, groundwater-dependent habitats (subterranean aquifers and springs) supporting vicariant relicts and short-range endemics. Ecological refuges can vary across space and time, depending on the dispersal abilities of aquatic taxa and the geographical proximity and hydrological connectivity of aquatic habitats. The most important are the perennial waterbodies (both groundwater and surface water fed) that support obligate aquatic organisms. These species will persist where suitable habitats are available and dispersal pathways are maintained. For very mobile species (invertebrates with an aerial dispersal phase) evolutionary refugia may also act as ecological refuges. Evolutionary refugia are likely future refugia because their water source (groundwater) is decoupled from local precipitation. However, their biota is extremely vulnerable to changes in local conditions because population extinction risks cannot be abated by the dispersal of individuals from other sites. Conservation planning must incorporate a high level of protection for aquifers that support refugial sites. Ecological refuges are vulnerable to changes in regional climate because they have little

  11. Dynamically linking economic models to ecological condition for coastal zone management: Application to sustainable tourism planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvarskas, Anthony

    2017-03-01

    While the development of the tourism industry can bring economic benefits to an area, it is important to consider the long-run impact of the industry on a given location. Particularly when the tourism industry relies upon a certain ecological state, those weighing different development options need to consider the long-run impacts of increased tourist numbers upon measures of ecological condition. This paper presents one approach for linking a model of recreational visitor behavior with an ecological model that estimates the impact of the increased visitors upon the environment. Two simulations were run for the model using initial parameters available from survey data and water quality data for beach locations in Croatia. Results suggest that the resilience of a given tourist location to the changes brought by increasing tourism numbers is important in determining its long-run sustainability. Further work should investigate additional model components, including the tourism industry, refinement of the relationships assumed by the model, and application of the proposed model in additional areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Changing communication ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Poul Erik; Gustafsson, Jessica

    2017-01-01

    This article aims to discuss changing media ecologies in rural, peri-urban and urban Kenya. The article is based on a comprehensive baseline study of 800 households carried out in October 2014 in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. The survey recorded media access and use and civic engagement as well...... as demographic data. The findings suggest that media ecologies in rural, peri-urban as well as urban Kenya have undergone dramatic changes. The much hyped and unprecedented spread of mobile telephony has taken place simultaneously with the introduction of or increased access to radio and television including...... satellite television. Different emerging communication ecologies can be identified often with radio providing a solid foundation and in different ways combined with television and mobile phones. Even though mobile ownership, for example, has increased in all segments and areas, gender inequalities...

  13. Evaluating social and ecological vulnerability of coral reef fisheries to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua E Cinner

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need to evaluate the links between the social and ecological dimensions of human vulnerability to climate change. We use an empirical case study of 12 coastal communities and associated coral reefs in Kenya to assess and compare five key ecological and social components of the vulnerability of coastal social-ecological systems to temperature induced coral mortality [specifically: 1 environmental exposure; 2 ecological sensitivity; 3 ecological recovery potential; 4 social sensitivity; and 5 social adaptive capacity]. We examined whether ecological components of vulnerability varied between government operated no-take marine reserves, community-based reserves, and openly fished areas. Overall, fished sites were marginally more vulnerable than community-based and government marine reserves. Social sensitivity was indicated by the occupational composition of each community, including the importance of fishing relative to other occupations, as well as the susceptibility of different fishing gears to the effects of coral bleaching on target fish species. Key components of social adaptive capacity varied considerably between the communities. Together, these results show that different communities have relative strengths and weaknesses in terms of social-ecological vulnerability to climate change.

  14. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  15. Placing lochs in their landscapes: linking landscape ecology, ecohydrology and conservation interest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir, M. C.; Spray, C. J.; Rowan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    Scotland is a country with outstanding freshwater systems providing multiple social, economic and cultural functions as well as ecological services of international importance. Scotland's lakes (locally termed lochs) occupy approximately 3% of the country's land mass and contain more than 90% of Great Britain's total freshwater resource. With over 25,000 lochs (surface area greater than 0.1 hectares) standing freshwaters are an iconic part of Scotland's landscape and they come in a myriad of forms and sizes contributing outstanding geodiversity as well as habitats of international importance for numerous species of conservation interest. There is undoubtedly a need to protect the conservation interests of designated sites in the face of changing loch and catchment pressures - which include diffuse pollutants, morphological modification, recreation and invasive species. Climate change presents a new set of challenges with potential impacts across the entire standing water resource base and predicting how these systems might respond to these changes greatly amplifies uncertainties implicit in their environmental management. Global climate change is predicted to be a major cause of change across all ecosystems and there are particular concerns about impacts on freshwater systems due to the coupling of impacts to both hydrology and ecology. Climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle in a number of ways, most significantly through changing temperature and precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. These changes, coupled with reduced snow and ice cover, frequency and duration, will lead to changes in soil moisture conditions and subsequently runoff. This is turn will impact on river flow, loch water levels, epilimnic temperatures, nutrient availability and, subsequently, the ecological structure and function of the entire standing water system. For some species these habitat changes will push them to the very limits of their natural tolerances and a

  16. Political Ecology, Island Tourism Planning, and Climate Change Adaptation on Boracay, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virgilio Maguigad

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This research paper presents a case study of the island of Boracay, Philippines, utilising a political ecology approach to climate change adaptation. The research finds that the island’s political ecology, especially the relationships among stakeholders, is strained. This creates challenges for various urban planning processes that require good working relationships. Climate change is expected to highlight these divisions as interactions among stakeholders (fulfilling zoning ordinance obligations, climate change adaptation- compliant land use plans, etc. are dependent on good stakeholder relations. Stakeholders realise that climate change is real and that sea level rise is already challenging existing zoning ordinances on urban beach development. However, this realisation must be integrated into political decision-making processes involving tourism stakeholders. The research also shows that the political ecology approach and methodology is applicable to studying the dynamics of climate change adaptation and tourism urbanisation on small islands.

  17. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  18. [Effects of land use structure change on regional ecological health--taking Shapingba County as an example].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Wei, Chaofu; Gao, Ming; Luo, Guanglian; Jiang, Wei

    2005-12-01

    Land resource is the carrier for the exchange of matter, energy and information flows, while the change velocity and the intensity of land use has strong effects on the ecological processes such as matter circulation, energy flow, and biologic diversity. Land use structure change will alter the type, area, and spatial distribution of ecosystem, and in the meantime, result in the changes of regional ecological health. Employing the principles and methods of landscape ecology, and through endowing relative ecological value to land use type, this paper analyzed the charaeteristics of recent 10 years land use change in Shapingba County of Chongqing, and discussed the effects of land use change on regional ecological health, aimed to provide scientific references for land use planning and sustainable land resource utilization. The results indicated that transformation often occurred among different land use types, and the land use structure in each transformation phase differed quite obviously. Under different land use structure, there was a great disparity in relative ecological value of sub-ecosystems, which played various roles in regional ecological health. In general, the regional relative ecological value embodied both increase and decrease. In the future, the relative ecological value of sub-ecosystem would represent three tendencies, i.e., increase first and decrease then, continuous decrease, and continuous increase. The situation of regional ecological health would gradually become better.

  19. Ecological risk caused by land use change in the coastal zone: a case study in the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di, X H; Wang, Y D; Hou, X Y

    2014-01-01

    China's coastal zone plays an important role in ecological services production and social-economic development; however, extensive and intensive land resource utilization and land use change have lead to high ecological risk in this area during last decade. Regional ecological risk assessment can provide fundamental knowledge and scientific basis for better understanding of the relationship between regional landscape ecosystem and human activities or climate changes, facilitating the optimization strategy of land use structure and improving the ecological risk prevention capability. In this paper, the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone is selected as the study site, which is undergoing a new round of coastal zone exploitation and has endured substantial land use change in the past decade. Land use maps of 2000, 2005 and 2010 were generated based on Landsat images by visual interpretation method, and the ecological risk index was then calculated. The index was 0.3314, 0.3461 and 0.3176 in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively, which showed a positive transition of regional ecological risk in 2005

  20. Effect of Ecological Restoration on Body Condition of a Predator.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel González-Tokman

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration attempts to recover the structure and function of ecosystems that have been degraded by human activities. A crucial test of ecosystem recovery would be to determine whether individuals in restored environments are as healthy as those in conserved environments. However, the impact of restoration on physiology of terrestrial animals has never been tested. Here, we evaluated the effect of two restoration methods on body condition measured as body size, body mass, lipid and muscle content of the spider Nephila clavipes in a tropical dry forest that has suffered chronic disturbance due to cattle grazing. We used experimental plots that had been excluded from disturbance by cattle grazing during eight years. Plots were either planted with native trees (i. e. maximal intervention, or only excluded from disturbance (i. e. minimal intervention, and were compared with control conserved (remnants of original forest and disturbed plots (where cattle is allowed to graze. We predicted (1 better body condition in spiders of conserved and restored sites, compared to disturbed sites, and (2 better body condition in plots with maximal intervention than in plots with minimal intervention. The first prediction was not supported in males or females, and the second prediction was only supported in females: body dry mass was higher in planted than in conserved plots for spiders of both sexes and also higher that in disturbed plots for males, suggesting that plantings are providing more resources. We discuss how different life histories and environmental pressures, such as food availability, parasitism, and competition for resources can explain our contrasting findings in male and female spiders. By studying animal physiology in restoration experiments it is possible to understand the mechanistic basis of ecological and evolutionary processes that determine success of ecological restoration.

  1. Ecological, biogeochemical and salinity changes in coastal lakes and wetlands over the last 200 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Lucy; Holmes, Jonathan; Horne, David

    2016-04-01

    reconstructions of salinity and eutrophication can aid the disentanglement of environmental drivers and increase understanding on the interactions between ecology and biogeochemical cycles within the lake. Previous palaeolimnological work on the Thurne Broads system has suggested shifts between macrophyte abundance and loss within a framework of rising salinity (varying between 1.8-8.7‰ and eutrophication (phosphorus loading greater than 100μg-1). A complex combination of salinity, eutrophication, toxicity and associated changes in habitat have acted as drivers for ecological change over the past 200 years, but these interactions have not previously been well understood. By combining reconstructions of palaeosalinity, biodiversity, food web dynamics, redox conditions and eutrophication, the interaction between and controls on long-term variations in shallow lake environments can be further explored.

  2. Landscape Ecological Risk Responses to Land Use Change in the Luanhe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security, and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County, the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County, and the downstream (Qinglong County. These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.

  3. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.

    2015-12-10

    Climate change is shifting species’ distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global dataset of 651 published marine species’ responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that: (1) re-analyses of existing time-series state how the existing datasets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species’ responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates and; (4) that new time series be designed to include detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the

  4. Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

    2017-11-01

    Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the

  5. Time for a change: dynamic urban ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, Cristina E; Hobbs, Richard J

    2012-03-01

    Contemporary cities are expanding rapidly in a spatially complex, non-linear manner. However, this form of expansion is rarely taken into account in the way that urbanization is classically assessed in ecological studies. An explicit consideration of the temporal dynamics, although frequently missing, is crucial in order to understand the effects of urbanization on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in rapidly urbanizing landscapes. In particular, a temporal perspective highlights the importance of land-use legacies and transient dynamics in the response of biodiversity to environmental change. Here, we outline the essential elements of an emerging framework for urban ecology that incorporates the characteristics of contemporary urbanization and thus empowers ecologists to understand and intervene in the planning and management of cities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juha eKantanen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects on climate change has been inadequately discussed despite there being several important associations between animal genetic resources and climate change issues. The sustainability of animal production systems and future food security require access to a wide diversity of animal genetic resources.There are several genetic questions that should be considered in strategies promoting adaptation to climate change and mitigation of environmental effects of livestock production. For example, it may become important to choose among breeds and even among farm animal species according to their suitability to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment.Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas effects induced by livestock production is the reduction of methane (CH4 emissions from ruminants. There are differences in CH4 emissions among breeds and among individual animals within breeds that suggest a potential for improvement in the trait through genetic selection.Characterization of breeds and individuals with modern genomic tools should be applied to identify breeds that have genetically adapted to marginal conditions and to get critical information for breeding and conservation programmes for farm animal genetic resources. We conclude that phenotyping and genomic technologies and adoption of new breeding approaches, such as genomic selection introgression, will promote breeding for useful characters in livestock species.

  7. Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantanen, Juha; Løvendahl, Peter; Strandberg, Erling; Eythorsdottir, Emma; Li, Meng-Hua; Kettunen-Præbel, Anne; Berg, Peer; Meuwissen, Theo

    2015-01-01

    Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects on climate change has been inadequately discussed despite there being several important associations between animal genetic resources and climate change issues. The sustainability of animal production systems and future food security require access to a wide diversity of animal genetic resources. There are several genetic questions that should be considered in strategies promoting adaptation to climate change and mitigation of environmental effects of livestock production. For example, it may become important to choose among breeds and even among farm animal species according to their suitability to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas effects induced by livestock production is the reduction of methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants. There are differences in CH4 emissions among breeds and among individual animals within breeds that suggest a potential for improvement in the trait through genetic selection. Characterization of breeds and individuals with modern genomic tools should be applied to identify breeds that have genetically adapted to marginal conditions and to get critical information for breeding and conservation programs for farm animal genetic resources. We conclude that phenotyping and genomic technologies and adoption of new breeding approaches, such as genomic selection introgression, will promote breeding for useful characters in livestock species. PMID:25767477

  8. Exploring dust emission responses to land cover change using an ecological land classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloza, Magda S.; Webb, Nicholas P.; Bleiweiss, Max P.; Winters, Craig; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Ayers, Eldon

    2018-06-01

    Despite efforts to quantify the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion, assessment uncertainty remains large. We address this uncertainty by evaluating the application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models (STMs) for detecting and quantitatively describing the impacts of land cover change on wind erosion. We apply a dust emission model over a rangeland study area in the northern Chihuahuan Desert, New Mexico, USA, and evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of modelled horizontal sediment mass flux and dust emission in the context of ecological sites and their vegetation states; representing a diversity of land cover types. Our results demonstrate how the impacts of land cover change on dust emission can be quantified, compared across land cover classes, and interpreted in the context of an ecological model that encapsulates land management intensity and change. Results also reveal the importance of established weaknesses in the dust model soil characterisation and drag partition scheme, which appeared generally insensitive to the impacts of land cover change. New models that address these weaknesses, coupled with ecological site concepts and field measurements across land cover types, could significantly reduce assessment uncertainties and provide opportunities for identifying land management options.

  9. Climate change: Implications for water and ecological resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, G.; Sanderson, M.

    1990-01-01

    A conference was held to discuss the implications of climate change on water and ecological resources. The meeting consisted of a number of plenary sessions, luncheon speeches, an open forum, and five workshops. Presentations concerned regional and global issues, climate modelling, international aspects of climate change, water resources supply and demand, wetlands, wildlife and fisheries, agriculture and forests, and conservation strategies. Separate abstracts have been prepared for 32 presentations from the conference

  10. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  11. Evaluation of Cichoric Acid of Echinacea purpurea Extract under Different Ecological Conditions in Semnan Province Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elahe Rostami

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Echinacea purpurea is an herbaceous perennial plant as members of the Asteraceae family. It is one the important medicinal plant in pharmacy industrial. Active substances of Echinaceae are amplifier of body's immune system and antivirus. Echinacea is not native to Iran. The phytochemical traits of medicinal plants depend on ecological conditions involving growing areas, climate conditions; various grow stages and genetic modifications. The aim of this study was the evaluation of cichoric acid of E. purpurea extract in different ecological conditions in Semnan, Iran. Dormancy in seeds was broken by treating them with strafication in 4 °C for 48 h, was grown in nursery beds for autumn and early winter and transfered to four areas with different ecological conditions in late winter. Chashm, Ahuvan, Semnan and Foladmahale were chosen for this experiment. The spacing of plantlet was about 25 × 45 cm in the field. After 2- 3 months, aerial parts of the plants collected in all areas and extract samples were prepared and characterized using high- performance liquid chromatography (HPLC. The components of a basic HPLC system were shown significant values of the cichoric acid in plants under four habitats. The level of cichoric acid in one condition was more than standards level that reported in another references. In addition, ecological diversities have significant impacts the quantity of cichoric acid in E. purpurea.   

  12. Establishment of stream nutrient criteria by comparing reference conditions with ecological thresholds in a typical eutrophic lake basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xiaofeng; Wang, Jie; Jiang, Dalin; Sun, Jinhua; Huang, Yi; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-13

    The establishment of numeric nutrient criteria is essential to aid the control of nutrient pollution and for protecting and restoring healthy ecological conditions. However, it's necessary to determine whether regional nutrient criteria can be defined in stream ecosystems with a poor ecological status. A database of periphytic diatom samples was collected in July and August 2011 and 2012. In total 172 samples were included in the database with matching environmental variables. Here, percentile estimates, nonparametric change-point analysis (nCPA) and Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis (TITAN) were conducted to detect the reference conditions and ecological thresholds along a total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) gradient and ammonia nitrogen (NH 3 -N) for the development of nutrient criteria in the streams of the Lake Dianchi basin. The results highlighted the possibility of establishing regional criteria for nutrient concentrations, which we recommended to be no more than 1.39 mg L -1 for TN, 0.04 mg L -1 for TP and 0.17 mg L -1 for NH 3 -N to prevent nuisance growths of tolerant taxa, and 0.38 mg L -1 for TN, 0.02 mg L -1 for TP and 0.02 mg L -1 for NH 3 -N to maintain high quality waters in streams. Additionally, the influence of excessive background nutrient enrichment on the threshold response, and the ecological interaction with other stressors (HQI, etc.) in the nutrient dynamic process need to be considered to establish the eventual nutrient criteria, regardless of which technique is applied.

  13. Age dynamic of physical condition changes in pre-school age girls, schoolgirls and students, living in conditions of Eastern Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.Y. Lebedinskiy

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to analyze dynamic of physical condition, considering sex (females and age of the tested, living in region with unfavorable ecology. Material: we studied pre school age girls (n=1580, age 4-7 years. In the research we did not include children with chronic diseases, who were under observation. We tested schoolgirls (n=3211, age 7-17 years and girl students (n=5827, age 17-21 years, 1-4 years of study. Girl students were divided into five age groups: from 17 to 21 years. All participants lived in conditions of Eastern Siberia (Irkutsk. This region is characterized by unfavorable ecology and climate geographic characteristics. Results: in dynamic of physical condition of pre-school girls, schoolgirls and students we marked out three substantial periods of it characteristics' changes. Age 7-8 years is critical (transition from 1st to 2nd stage. The least values of these characteristics are found in older (after 17-18 years ages. In students we observed relative stabilization of these indicators. Conclusions: the received results shall be considered in building physical education training process in pre-school educational establishments, secondary comprehensive schools and higher educational establishments.

  14. Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

    2017-01-01

    As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction. PMID:29165365

  15. Integrated Evaluation of Coupling Coordination for Land Use Change and Ecological Security: A Case Study in Wuhan City of Hubei Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, Ji; Wang, Zhanqi; Zhang, Hongwei

    2017-11-22

    As land resources and ecosystems provide necessary materials and conditions for human development, land use change and ecological security play increasingly important roles in sustainable development. This study aims to reveal the mutual-influence and interaction between land use change and ecological security in Wuhan, based on the coupling coordination degree model. As such, it provides strategies for the achievement of the synchronous and coordinated development of urbanization and ecological security. The results showed that, during the period from 2006 to 2012, the size of built-up area in Wuhan increased to 26.16%, and that all the other types of land use reduced due to the urbanization process, which appeared to be the main driving force of land use change. The ecological security in Wuhan has been improving as a whole although it was somewhat held back from 2006 to 2008 due to the rapid growth of built-up area. The coupling coordination analysis revealed that the relationship between built-up area and ecological security was more coordinated after 2008. The results can provide feasible recommendations for land use management and environmental protection from the viewpoint of coordinated development. To achieve sustainable development from economic and ecological perspective, policy makers should control the rate of urban expansion and exert more effort on intensive land use, clean energy development and emission reduction.

  16. Ecological performance of construction materials subject to ocean climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kay L; Coleman, Melinda A; Connell, Sean D; Russell, Bayden D; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Kelaher, Brendan P

    2017-10-01

    Artificial structures will be increasingly utilized to protect coastal infrastructure from sea-level rise and storms associated with climate change. Although it is well documented that the materials comprising artificial structures influence the composition of organisms that use them as habitat, little is known about how these materials may chemically react with changing seawater conditions, and what effects this will have on associated biota. We investigated the effects of ocean warming, acidification, and type of coastal infrastructure material on algal turfs. Seawater acidification resulted in greater covers of turf, though this effect was counteracted by elevated temperatures. Concrete supported a greater cover of turf than granite or high-density polyethylene (HDPE) under all temperature and pH treatments, with the greatest covers occurring under simulated ocean acidification. Furthermore, photosynthetic efficiency under acidification was greater on concrete substratum compared to all other materials and treatment combinations. These results demonstrate the capacity to maximise ecological benefits whilst still meeting local management objectives when engineering coastal defense structures by selecting materials that are appropriate in an ocean change context. Therefore, mitigation efforts to offset impacts from sea-level rise and storms can also be engineered to alter, or even reduce, the effects of climatic change on biological assemblages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Ecological change on California's Channel Islands from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick, Torben C.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Hofman, Courtney A.; Ralls, Katherine; Anderson, R. Scott; Boser, Christina L.; Braje, Todd J.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Chesser, R. Terry; Collins, Paul W.; Erlandson, Jon M.; Faulkner, Kate R.; Fleischer, Robert; Funk, W. Chris; Galipeau, Russell; Huston, Ann; King, Julie; Laughrin, Lyndal L.; Maldonado, Jesus; McEachern, Kathryn; Muhs, Daniel R.; Newsome, Seth D.; Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Still, Christopher; Morrison, Scott A.

    2014-01-01

    Historical ecology is becoming an important focus in conservation biology and offers a promising tool to help guide ecosystem management. Here, we integrate data from multiple disciplines to illuminate the past, present, and future of biodiversity on California's Channel Islands, an archipelago that has undergone a wide range of land-use and ecological changes. Our analysis spans approximately 20,000 years, from before human occupation and through Native American hunter–gatherers, commercial ranchers and fishers, the US military, and other land managers. We demonstrate how long-term, interdisciplinary research provides insight into conservation decisions, such as setting ecosystem restoration goals, preserving rare and endemic taxa, and reducing the impacts of climate change on natural and cultural resources. We illustrate the importance of historical perspectives for understanding modern patterns and ecological change and present an approach that can be applied generally in conservation management planning.

  18. Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

    2017-12-01

    Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and

  19. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  20. Developmental change in social responsibility during adolescence: An ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray-Lake, Laura; Syvertsen, Amy K; Flanagan, Constance A

    2016-01-01

    Social responsibility can be defined as a set of prosocial values representing personal commitments to contribute to community and society. Little is known about developmental change-and predictors of that change-in social responsibility during adolescence. The present study used an accelerated longitudinal research design to investigate the developmental trajectory of social responsibility values and ecological assets across family, school, community, and peer settings that predict these values. Data come from a 3-year study of 3,683 U.S. adolescents enrolled in upper-level elementary, middle, and high schools in rural, semiurban, and urban communities. Social responsibility values significantly decreased from age 9 to 16 before leveling off in later adolescence. Family compassion messages and democratic climate, school solidarity, community connectedness, and trusted friendship, positively predicted within-person change in adolescents' social responsibility values. These findings held after accounting for other individual-level and demographic factors and provide support for the role of ecological assets in adolescents' social responsibility development. In addition, fair society beliefs and volunteer experience had positive between- and within-person associations with social responsibility values. The manuscript discusses theoretical and practical implications of the conclusion that declines in ecological assets may partly explain age-related declines in social responsibility values. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  2. Ecological grief as a mental health response to climate change-related loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunsolo, Ashlee; Ellis, Neville R.

    2018-04-01

    Climate change is increasingly understood to impact mental health through multiple pathways of risk, including intense feelings of grief as people suffer climate-related losses to valued species, ecosystems and landscapes. Despite growing research interest, ecologically driven grief, or `ecological grief', remains an underdeveloped area of inquiry. We argue that grief is a natural and legitimate response to ecological loss, and one that may become more common as climate impacts worsen. Drawing upon our own research in Northern Canada and the Australian Wheatbelt, combined with a synthesis of the literature, we offer future research directions for the study of ecological grief.

  3. [Ecology-economy harmonious development based on the ecological services value change in Yanqi Basin, Northwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamat, Zulpiya; Halik, Umut; Aji, Rouzi; Nurmemet, Ilyas; Anwar, Mirigul; Keyimu, Maierdang

    2015-03-01

    In this paper, we used land use/cover ecosystem service value estimation model and ecological economic coordination degree model to analyze the changes of the ecosystem service value by the land use/cover changes during 1985, 1990, 1996, 2000, 2005 and 2011 in Yanqi Basin, Xin-jiang. Then we evaluated the ecology-economy harmony and the regional differences. The results showed that during 1985-2011, there was an increasing trend in the areas of waters, wetland, sand, cultivated land and construction land in Yanqi Basin. In contrast, that of the saline-alkali land, grassland and woodland areas exhibited a decreasing trend. The ecosystem service value in Yanqi Basin during this period presented an increasing trend, among which the waters and cultivated land contributed most to the total value of ecosystem services, while the grassland and the woodland had obviously declined contribution to the total value of ecosystem services. The research showed that the development of ecological economy in the study area was at a low conflict and low coordination level. So, taking reasonable and effective use of the regional waters and soil resources is the key element to maintain the ecosystem service function and sustainable and harmonious development of economy in Yanqi Basin.

  4. Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Bryan G

    2008-12-01

    A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

  5. Ecological and methodological drivers of species’ distribution and phenology responses to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Brown, Christopher J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses

  6. Ecological economics and global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maier-Rigaud, G.

    1991-09-01

    What is the subject of ecology? What is the primary concern of economics? How can the interface between ecology and economics be described? Is there a relationship between the two different sciences which constitutes a new research field? This book raises some of these basic questions and reflects on major misleading assumptions research in ecological economics unwittingly relies on. An outlook is given as to the aspects on which research in this field should now primarily concentrate. This publication addresses first of all natural scientists and politicians, though economists, too, might find some new aspects apart from traditional economic reasoning. (orig./KW)

  7. [Research progress on remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Ming-jun; Zeng, Li-xiong; Xiao, Wen-fa; Zhou, Zhi-xiang; Huang, Zhi-lin; Wang, Peng-cheng; Dian, Yuan-yong

    2014-12-01

    The Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR area) , one of the most sensitive ecological zones in China, has dramatically changes in ecosystem configurations and services driven by the Three Gorges Engineering Project and its related human activities. Thus, understanding the dynamics of ecosystem configurations, ecological processes and ecosystem services is an attractive and critical issue to promote regional ecological security of the TGR area. The remote sensing of environment is a promising approach to the target and is thus increasingly applied to and ecosystem dynamics of the TGR area on mid- and macro-scales. However, current researches often showed controversial results in ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area due to the differences in remote sensing data, scale, and land-use/cover classification. Due to the complexity of ecological configurations and human activities, challenges still exist in the remote-sensing based research of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The purpose of this review was to summarize the research advances in remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes in the TGR area. The status, challenges and trends of ecological and environmental remote-sensing in the TGR area were further discussed and concluded in the aspect of land-use/land-cover, vegetation dynamics, soil and water security, ecosystem services, ecosystem health and its management. The further researches on the remote sensing of ecological and environmental changes were proposed to improve the ecosystem management of the TGR area.

  8. Using a Multi-Method Approach to Examine Social-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Resource Policies on the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, J.; Hopping, K. A.; Yeh, E.; Nyima, Y.; Galvin, K.; Boone, R.; Dorje, T.; Ojima, D. S.

    2012-12-01

    from the experiment and the indigenous knowledge study suggest that Kobresia pygmaea, the dominant plant species and the primary grazing resource, is vulnerable to warming. Moreover, several lines of evidence suggest that warming is causing delayed spring phenology, with important ecosystem and livelihood implications. Herders are observing climatic and ecological changes, knowledge which is important for adaptation, but people whose livelihoods are most directly derived from the rangelands, those situated at higher elevations, and those who are more mobile across the landscape are most attuned to these changes. These results suggest that rangeland degradation and delayed spring phenology are occurring, and that climate warming may be responsible for these changes. While additional snow may improve ecological conditions, the warming-induced degradation may make the social-ecological system more vulnerable to large snowstorm events. Our findings suggest that climate adaptation strategies should address the effects of both climate warming and the changing nature of extreme weather events and should also encourage land use policies that will maintain these systems under change. Moreover, policies that encourage mobility and rangeland-based livelihoods will enhance adaptation to climate change.

  9. Ecology of Land Cover Change in Glaciated Tropical Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth R. Young

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Tropical mountains contain unique biological diversity, and are subject to many consequences of global climate change, exasperated by concurrent socioeconomic shifts. Glaciers are in a negative mass balance, exposing substrates to primary succession and altering downslope wetlands and streams. A review of recent trends and future predictions suggests a likely reduction in areas of open habitat for species of high mountains due to greater woody plant cover, accompanied by land use shifts by farmers and pastoralists along the environmental gradients of tropical mountains. Research is needed on the biodiversity and ecosystem consequences of successional change, including the direct effects of retreating glaciers and the indirect consequences of combined social and ecological drivers in lower elevations. Areas in the high mountains that are protected for nature conservation or managed collectively by local communities represent opportunities for integrated research and development approaches that may provide ecological spaces for future species range shifts.

  10. Ecology and living conditions of groundwater fauna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thulin, Barbara [Geo Innova AB (Sweden); Hahn, Hans Juergen [Arbeitsgruppe Grundwasseroekologie, Univ. of Koblenz-Landau (Germany)

    2008-09-15

    This report presents the current state of ecological knowledge and applied research relating to groundwater. A conceptual picture is given of groundwater fauna occurrence in regard to Swedish environmental conditions. Interpretation features for groundwater fauna and applications are outlined. Groundwater is one of the largest and oldest limnic habitats populated by a rich and diverse fauna. Both very old species and species occurring naturally in brackish or salt water can be found in groundwater. Groundwater ecosystems are heterotrophic; the fauna depends on imports from the surface. Most species are meiofauna, 0.3-1 mm. The food chain of groundwater fauna is the same as for relatives in surface water and salt water. Smaller animals graze biofilms and detritus, larger animals act facutatively as predators. A difference is that stygobiotic fauna has become highly adapted to its living space and tolerates very long periods without food. Oxygen is a limiting factor, but groundwater fauna tolerates periods with low oxygen concentrations, even anoxic conditions. For longer periods of time a minimum oxygen requirement of 1 mg/l should be fulfilled. Geographic features such as Quaternary glaciation and very old Pliocene river systems are important for distribution patterns on a large spatial scale, but aquifer characteristics are important on a landscape scale. Area diversity is often comparable to surface water diversity. However, site diversity is low in groundwater. Site specific hydrological exchange on a geological facies level inside the aquifer, e.g. porous, fractured and karstic aquifers as well as the hyporheic zone, controls distribution patterns of groundwater fauna. For a better understanding of controlling factors indicator values are suggested. Different adequate sampling methods are available. They are representative for the aquifer, but a suitable number of monitoring wells is required. The existence of groundwater fauna in Sweden is considered as very

  11. Ecology and living conditions of groundwater fauna

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thulin, Barbara; Hahn, Hans Juergen

    2008-09-01

    This report presents the current state of ecological knowledge and applied research relating to groundwater. A conceptual picture is given of groundwater fauna occurrence in regard to Swedish environmental conditions. Interpretation features for groundwater fauna and applications are outlined. Groundwater is one of the largest and oldest limnic habitats populated by a rich and diverse fauna. Both very old species and species occurring naturally in brackish or salt water can be found in groundwater. Groundwater ecosystems are heterotrophic; the fauna depends on imports from the surface. Most species are meiofauna, 0.3-1 mm. The food chain of groundwater fauna is the same as for relatives in surface water and salt water. Smaller animals graze biofilms and detritus, larger animals act facutatively as predators. A difference is that stygobiotic fauna has become highly adapted to its living space and tolerates very long periods without food. Oxygen is a limiting factor, but groundwater fauna tolerates periods with low oxygen concentrations, even anoxic conditions. For longer periods of time a minimum oxygen requirement of 1 mg/l should be fulfilled. Geographic features such as Quaternary glaciation and very old Pliocene river systems are important for distribution patterns on a large spatial scale, but aquifer characteristics are important on a landscape scale. Area diversity is often comparable to surface water diversity. However, site diversity is low in groundwater. Site specific hydrological exchange on a geological facies level inside the aquifer, e.g. porous, fractured and karstic aquifers as well as the hyporheic zone, controls distribution patterns of groundwater fauna. For a better understanding of controlling factors indicator values are suggested. Different adequate sampling methods are available. They are representative for the aquifer, but a suitable number of monitoring wells is required. The existence of groundwater fauna in Sweden is considered as very

  12. Ecological limit functions relating fish community response to hydrologic departures of the ecological flow regime in the Tennessee River basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Rodney R.; Murphy, Jennifer C.; Wolfe, William J.; Saylor, Charles F.; Wales, Amy K.

    2014-01-01

    Ecological limit functions relating streamflow and aquatic ecosystems remain elusive despite decades of research. We investigated functional relationships between species richness and changes in streamflow characteristics at 662 fish sampling sites in the Tennessee River basin. Our approach included the following: (1) a brief summary of relevant literature on functional relations between fish and streamflow, (2) the development of ecological limit functions that describe the strongest discernible relationships between fish species richness and streamflow characteristics, (3) the evaluation of proposed definitions of hydrologic reference conditions, and (4) an investigation of the internal structures of wedge-shaped distributions underlying ecological limit functions.Twenty-one ecological limit functions were developed across three ecoregions that relate the species richness of 11 fish groups and departures from hydrologic reference conditions using multivariate and quantile regression methods. Each negatively sloped function is described using up to four streamflow characteristics expressed in terms of cumulative departure from hydrologic reference conditions. Negative slopes indicate increased departure results in decreased species richness.Sites with the highest measured fish species richness generally had near-reference hydrologic conditions for a given ecoregion. Hydrology did not generally differ between sites with the highest and lowest fish species richness, indicating that other environmental factors likely limit species richness at sites with reference hydrology.Use of ecological limit functions to make decisions regarding proposed hydrologic regime changes, although commonly presented as a management tool, is not as straightforward or informative as often assumed. We contend that statistical evaluation of the internal wedge structure below limit functions may provide a probabilistic understanding of how aquatic ecology is influenced by altered hydrology

  13. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  14. Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

    2016-11-29

    Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

  15. Chironomidae (Diptera, Chironomidae) as biological indicators of water bodies ecological condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtin, M.M.; Sejsebaev, A.T.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents data confirming that Chironomidae are good to be used as an indicative criterion when classifying lakes. It was found that their quantity and presence of certain species could serve as an index in assessment of water body ecological condition. Results of cytotaxonomic analysis helped to reveal the nature of Chironomini species diversity in STS water bodies. (author)

  16. Metabarcoding of benthic eukaryote communities predicts the ecological condition of estuaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chariton, Anthony A.; Stephenson, Sarah; Morgan, Matthew J.; Steven, Andrew D.L.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Court, Leon N.; Hardy, Christopher M.

    2015-01-01

    DNA-derived measurements of biological composition have the potential to produce data covering all of life, and provide a tantalizing proposition for researchers and managers. We used metabarcoding to compare benthic eukaryote composition from five estuaries of varying condition. In contrast to traditional studies, we found biotic richness was greatest in the most disturbed estuary, with this being due to the large volume of extraneous material (i.e. run-off from aquaculture, agriculture and other catchment activities) being deposited in the system. In addition, we found strong correlations between composition and a number of environmental variables, including nutrients, pH and turbidity. A wide range of taxa responded to these environmental gradients, providing new insights into their sensitivities to natural and anthropogenic stressors. Metabarcoding has the capacity to bolster current monitoring techniques, enabling the decisions regarding ecological condition to be based on a more holistic view of biodiversity. - Highlights: • We used metabarcoding to examine the benthic eukaryote composition of five estuaries. • Biotic richness (based on MOTUs) was greater in the most impacted estuary. • Similarities among estuaries reflected their environmental condition. • Composition was strongly correlated with nutrients, turbidity and pH. • Metabarcoding can provide fast, comprehensive and ecologically informative data. - Using metabarcoding we were able discriminate benthos from five estuaries, and identify those taxa which responded negatively and positivity to the key environmental stressors

  17. Ecology under lake ice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hampton, Stephanie E.; Galloway, Aaron W. E.; Powers, Stephen M.; Ozersky, Ted; Woo, Kara H.; Batt, Ryan D.; Labou, Stephanie G.; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Lottig, Noah R.; Stanley, Emily H.; North, Rebecca L.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Adrian, Rita; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Arvola, Lauri; Baulch, Helen M.; Bertani, Isabella; Bowman, Larry L., Jr.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Catalan, Jordi; Colom-Montero, William; Domine, Leah M.; Felip, Marisol; Granados, Ignacio; Gries, Corinna; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Haberman, Juta; Haldna, Marina; Hayden, Brian; Higgins, Scott N.; Jolley, Jeff C.; Kahilainen, Kimmo K.; Kaup, Enn; Kehoe, Michael J.; MacIntyre, Sally; Mackay, Anson W.; Mariash, Heather L.; Mckay, Robert M.; Nixdorf, Brigitte; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Palmer, Michelle; Pierson, Don C.; Post, David M.; Pruett, Matthew J.; Rautio, Milla; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, Sarah L.; Ruecker, Jacqueline; Sadro, Steven; Silow, Eugene A.; Smith, Derek E.; Sterner, Robert W.; Swann, George E. A.; Timofeyev, Maxim A.; Toro, Manuel; Twiss, Michael R.; Vogt, Richard J.; Watson, Susan B.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A.

    Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experi-ence periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems,due to a historical research focus on summer ‘growing seasons’. We executed the first global

  18. Introduction. Antarctic ecology: from genes to ecosystems. Part 2. Evolution, diversity and functional ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alex D; Murphy, Eugene J; Johnston, Nadine M; Clarke, Andrew

    2007-12-29

    The Antarctic biota has evolved over the last 100 million years in increasingly isolated and cold conditions. As a result, Antarctic species, from micro-organisms to vertebrates, have adapted to life at extremely low temperatures, including changes in the genome, physiology and ecological traits such as life history. Coupled with cycles of glaciation that have promoted speciation in the Antarctic, this has led to a unique biota in terms of biogeography, patterns of species distribution and endemism. Specialization in the Antarctic biota has led to trade-offs in many ecologically important functions and Antarctic species may have a limited capacity to adapt to present climate change. These include the direct effects of changes in environmental parameters and indirect effects of increased competition and predation resulting from altered life histories of Antarctic species and the impacts of invasive species. Ultimately, climate change may alter the responses of Antarctic ecosystems to harvesting from humans. The unique adaptations of Antarctic species mean that they provide unique models of molecular evolution in natural populations. The simplicity of Antarctic communities, especially from terrestrial systems, makes them ideal to investigate the ecological implications of climate change, which are difficult to identify in more complex systems.

  19. Judging a brook by its cover: The relation between ecological condition of a stream and urban land cover in new England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, J.F.; Cuffney, T.F.; McMahon, G.; Rosiu, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    The US Geological Survey conducted an urban land-use study in the New England Coastal Basins (NECB) area during 2001 to determine how urbanization relates to changes in the ecological condition of streams. Thirty sites were selected that differed in their level of watershed development (low to high). An urban intensity value was calculated for each site from 24 landscape variables. Together, these 30 values reppresented a gradient of urban intensity. Among various biological, chemical, and physical factors surveyed at each site, benthic invertebrate assemblages were sampled from stream riffles and also from multiple habitats along the length of the sampling reach. We use some of the NECB data to derive a four-variable urbanintensity index (NECB-UII), where each variable represents a distinct component of urbanization: increasing human presence, expanding infrastructure, landscape development, and riparian vegetation loss. Using the NECB-UII as a characterization of urbanization, we describe how landscape fragmentation occurs with urbanization and how changes in the invertebrate assemblages, represented by metrics of ecological condition, are related to urbanization. Metrics with a strong linear response included EPT taxa richness, percentage richness of non-insect taxa, and pollution-tolerance values. Additionally, we describe how these relations can help in estimating the expected condition of a stream for its level of urbanization, thereby establishing a baseline for evaluating possible affects from specific point-source stressors.

  20. Evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges: key concepts for conserving Australian arid zone freshwater biodiversity under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Jenny; Pavlova, Alexandra; Thompson, Ross; Sunnucks, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Refugia have been suggested as priority sites for conservation under climate change because of their ability to facilitate survival of biota under adverse conditions. Here, we review the likely role of refugial habitats in conserving freshwater biota in arid Australian aquatic systems where the major long-term climatic influence has been aridification. We introduce a conceptual model that characterizes evolutionary refugia and ecological refuges based on our review of the attributes of aquati...

  1. Man - environment - innovations. Are economy and ecology opposite notions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsch, B.

    1994-01-01

    This book has the aim to describe complex economic and ecological problems in simple language. So, the most pressing challenges of our time, for instance population growth and age structure, energy, urbanization, raw materials and the environment, change of values, growing environmental awareness and technology risk assessment are outlined. Different concepts for solving the ecological problems with economically reasonable premises are described and evaluated. The analysis is followed by concrete calls for changes in the political boundary conditions in the fields of environmental, ecological and economic policy. (orig.) [de

  2. Exploring the role of traditional ecological knowledge in climate change initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Vinyeta; Kathy. Lynn

    2013-01-01

    Indigenous populations are projected to face disproportionate impacts as a result of climate change in comparison to nonindigenous populations. For this reason, many American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are identifying and implementing culturally appropriate strategies to assess climate impacts and adapt to projected changes. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK...

  3. Behaviour of mobile macrofauna is a key factor in beach ecology as response to rapid environmental changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scapini, Felicita

    2014-10-01

    Sandy beach animals show behavioural adaptations that are expressed as contingencies during the life history of individuals to face periodic and episodic environmental changes. Such adaptations include activity rhythms, orientation, zonation, burrowing, escape responses and feeding strategies, the first two being common adaptations to all mobile animals. The complex conditions of a particular beach environment may be integrated in a learning process enhancing the adaptation and survival of individuals and eventually of populations. Evidence exists of genetic determination of some behavioural features that are adaptive in the long term (throughout generations) by increasing individual survival and reproductive potential. The environmental features integrated with the life history of beach animals shape the individual behaviour through ontogenetic processes, as well as population behaviour through evolutionary processes. Thus, behavioural differences among individuals may reflect environmental variation at the local and small/medium temporal scales of beach processes, whereas within-population behavioural coherence and differences among populations may reflect variation at the geographic scale. The different foci stressed by different authors and the variety of evidence dependent upon local geographical and ecological conditions have often resulted in compartmentalised explanations, making generalizations and the repeatability of behavioural studies of beach ecology challenging. There was a need to developing a more synthetic paradigm for beach animal behaviour. This paper gives a brief overview of the theoretical background and keystone studies, which have contributed to our understanding of animal behaviour in sandy beach ecology, and proposes testable hypotheses to be integrated in the beach ecology paradigm.

  4. Mangroves on the Edge: Anthrome-Dependent Fragmentation Influences Ecological Condition (Turbo, Colombia, Southern Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Felipe Blanco-Libreros

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine protected areas are commonly seen as the most effective strategy for protecting mangroves from external human pressures but little is known about the role of public land-tenure contexts (dense settlements, agricultural or range lands and wild anthromes on clearing rates, patch properties, and ecological condition. We addressed the following questions using a peri-urban to wild gradient along the anthropogenic coastal-scape in Turbo Municipality (Colombia, Southern Caribbean: Do the different deforestation rates observed under peri-urban, rural, military-protected and wild land-use-and-tenure contexts, promote distinctive fragmentation patterns? Do these patterns influence loggers’ access and ultimately ecosystem ecological condition? Loss rate (1938–2009 was the greatest peri-urban mangroves and positively correlated with urban edge and patch density. Pasture edge was highest in rural mangroves while mean patch area was higher in protected and wild mangroves. An Anthropogenic Disturbance Index (ADI was strongly correlated with reduced mean patch area and increased patch density, due to increased trampling and logging, that ultimately promoted high densities of thin (diameter: <5 cm Laguncularia racemosa trees but had no significant effect on the presence of a dominant benthic gastropod. In conclusion, both protection and remoteness were effective in reducing anthropogenic edges and fragmentation, and thus contributed to a high ecological condition in mangroves at a major deforestation hotspot.

  5. Social-ecological enabling conditions for payments for ecosystem services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidi R. Huber-Stearns

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept of "enabling conditions" centers on conditions that facilitate approaches to addressing social and ecological challenges. Although multiple fields have independently addressed the concept of enabling conditions, the literature lacks a shared understanding or integration of concepts. We propose a more synthesized understanding of enabling conditions beyond disciplinary boundaries by focusing on the enabling conditions that influence the implementation of a range of environmental policies termed payments for ecosystem services (PES. Through an analysis of key literature from different disciplinary perspectives, we examined how researchers and practitioners refer to and identify enabling conditions within the context of PES. Through our synthesis, we identified 24 distinct enabling conditions organized within 4 broad themes: biophysical, economic, governance, and social-cultural conditions. We found that the literature coalesces around certain enabling conditions, such as strong ecosystem science and existing institutions, regardless of disciplinary background or journal audience. We also observed key differences in how authors perceive the direction of influence for property type, program objectives, and number of actors. Additionally, we noted an emphasis on the importance of the contextual nature of many enabling conditions that may cause certain conditions to have a disproportionate impact on successful implementation in some circumstances. Unraveling the relative importance of specific enabling conditions in diverse contexts remains a research frontier. Ultimately, no single disciplinary perspective is likely to provide all necessary insights for PES creation, and given the intertwined nature of enabling conditions, practitioners need to consider insights from multiple dimensions. Our work suggests opportunities to better connect diverse conversations through integration of concepts, a common vocabulary, and a synthetic framework.

  6. ecological geological maps: GIS-based evaluation of the Geo-Ecological Quality Index (GEQUI) in Sicily (Central Mediterranean)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigro, Fabrizio; Arisco, Giuseppe; Perricone, Marcella; Renda, Pietro; Favara, Rocco

    2010-05-01

    The condition of landscapes and the ecological communities within them is strongly related to levels of human activity. As a consequence, determining status and trends in the pattern of human-dominated landscapes can be useful for understanding the overall conditions of geo-ecological resources. Ecological geological maps are recent tools providing useful informations about a-biotic and biotic features worldwide. These maps represents a new generation of geological maps and depict the lithospheric components conditions on surface, where ecological dynamics (functions and properties) and human activities develop. Thus, these maps are too a fundamental political tool to plan the human activities management in relationship to the territorial/environmental patterns of a date region. Different types of ecological geological maps can be develop regarding the: conditions (situations), zoning, prognosis and recommendations. The ecological geological conditions maps reflects the complex of parameters or individual characteristics of lithosphere, which characterized the opportunity of the influence of lithosphere components on the biota (man, fauna, flora, and ecosystem). The ecological geological zoning maps are foundamental basis for prognosis estimation and nature defenses measures. Estimation from the position of comfort and safety of human life and function of ecosystem is given on these maps. The ecological geological prognosis maps reflect the spatial-temporary prognoses of ecological geological conditions changing during the natural dynamic of natural surrounding and the main-during the economic mastering of territory and natural technical systems. Finally, the ecological geological recommendation maps are based on the ecological geological and social-economical informations, aiming the regulation of territory by the regulation of economic activities and the defense of bio- and socio-sphere extents. Each of these maps may also be computed or in analytic or in

  7. Dynamics of change in local physician supply: an ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, H Joanna; Begun, James W

    2002-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to employ an ecological framework to identify factors that have an impact on change in local physician supply within the USA. A particular specialty type of patient care physicians in a local market is defined as a physician population. Four physician populations are identified: generalists, medical specialists, surgical specialists, and hospital-based specialists. Based on population ecology theory, the proposed framework explains the growth of a particular physician population by four mechanisms: the intrinsic properties of this physician population; the local market's carrying capacity, which is determined by three environmental dimensions (munificence, concentration, diversity); competition within the same physician population; and interdependence between different physician populations. Data at the level of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) were compiled from the US Area Resources File, the American Hospital Association Annual Surveys of Hospitals, the American Medical Association Census of Medical Groups, the InterStudy National HMO Census, and the US County Business Patterns. Changes in the number and percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population from 1985 to 1994 were regressed, respectively, on 1985-94 changes in the explanatory variables as well as their levels in 1985. The results indicate that the population ecology framework is useful in explaining dynamics of change in the local physician workforce. Variables measuring the three environmental dimensions were found to have significant, and in some cases, differential effects on change in the size of different specialty populations. For example, both hospital consolidation and managed care penetration showed significant positive eflects on growth of the generalist population but suppressing effects on growth of the specialist population. The percentage of physicians in a particular specialty population in 1985 was negatively related to change in the size

  8. Popular culture and the "new human condition": Catastrophe narratives and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulfin, Ailise

    2017-09-01

    Striking popular culture images of burnt landscapes, tidal waves and ice-bound cities have the potential to dramatically and emotively convey the dangers of climate change. Given that a significant number of people derive a substantial proportion of their information on the threat of climate change, or the ;new human condition;, from popular culture works such as catastrophe movies, it is important that an investigation into the nature of the representations produced be embedded in the attempt to address the issue. What climate change-related messages may be encoded in popular films, television and novels, how are they being received, and what effects may they have? This article adopts the cultural studies perspective that popular culture gives us an important means by which to access the ;structures of feeling; that characterise a society at a particular historic juncture: the views held and emotional states experienced by significant amounts of people as evident in disparate forms of cultural production. It further adopts the related viewpoint that popular culture has an effect upon the society in which it is consumed, as well as reflecting that society's desires and concerns - although the nature of the effect may be difficult to quantify. From this position, the article puts forward a theory on the role of ecological catastrophe narratives in current popular culture, before going on to review existing critical work on ecologically-charged popular films and novels which attempts to assess their effects on their audiences. It also suggests areas for future research, such as the prevalent but little studied theme of natural and environmental disaster in late-Victorian science fiction writing. This latter area is of interest because it reveals the emergence of an ecological awareness or structure of feeling as early as the late-nineteenth century, and allows the relationship of this development to environmental policy making to be investigated because of the

  9. Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew Daniel Petrie

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation explores the climate, ecology and hydrology of Chihuahuan Desert ecosystems in the context of global climate change. In coming decades, the southwestern United States is projected to experience greater temperature-driven aridity, possible small decreases in annual precipitation, and a later onset of summer monsoon rainfall. These changes may have...

  10. AEDT: A new concept for ecological dynamics in the ever-changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesson, Peter

    2017-05-01

    The important concept of equilibrium has always been controversial in ecology, but a new, more general concept, an asymptotic environmentally determined trajectory (AEDT), overcomes many concerns with equilibrium by realistically incorporating long-term climate change while retaining much of the predictive power of a stable equilibrium. A population or ecological community is predicted to approach its AEDT, which is a function of time reflecting environmental history and biology. The AEDT invokes familiar questions and predictions but in a more realistic context in which consideration of past environments and a future changing profoundly due to human influence becomes possible. Strong applications are also predicted in population genetics, evolution, earth sciences, and economics.

  11. A synthesis of ecological and fish-community changes in Lake Ontario, 1970-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, E.L.; Casselman, J.M.; Dermott, R.; Fitzsimons, J.D.; Gal, G.; Holeck, K. T.; Hoyle, J.A.; Johannsson, O.E.; Lantry, B.F.; Makarewicz, J.C.; Millard, E.S.; Munawar, I.F.; Munawar, M.; O'Gorman, R.; Owens, R.W.; Rudstam, L. G.; Schaner, T.; Stewart, T.J.

    2005-01-01

    We assessed stressors associated with ecological and fishcommunity changes in Lake Ontario since 1970, when the first symposium on Salmonid Communities in Oligotrophic Lakes (SCOL I) was held (J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 29: 613-616). Phosphorus controls implemented in the early 1970s were undeniably successful; lower food-web studies showed declines in algal abundance and epilimnetic zooplankton production and a shift in pelagic primary productivity toward smaller organisms. Stressors on the fish community prior to 1970 such as exploitation, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) predation, and effects of nuisance populations of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) were largely ameliorated by the 1990s. The alewife became a pivotal species supporting a multi-million-dollar salmonid sport fishery, but alewife-induced thiamine deficiency continued to hamper restoration and sustainability of native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). Expanding salmonine populations dependent on alewife raised concerns about predator demand and prey supply, leading to reductions in salmonine stocking in the early 1990s. Relaxation of the predation impact by alewives and their shift to deeper water allowed recovery of native fishes such as threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides). The return of the Lake Ontario ecosystem to historical conditions has been impeded by unplanned introductions. Establishment of Dreissena spp. led to increased water clarity and increased vectoring of lower trophic-level production to benthic habitats and contributed to the collapse of Diporeia spp. populations, behavioral modifications of key fish species, and the decline of native lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). Despite reduced productivity, exotic-species introductions, and changes in the fish community, offshore Mysis relicta populations remained relatively stable. The effects of climate and climate change on the population abundance and dynamics of Lake Ontario

  12. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirdar, U [ed.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs.

  13. Change: Threat or opportunity for human progress? V. 5. Ecological change: Environment, development and poverty linkages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirdar, U.

    1992-01-01

    This volume consists of 18 articles that examine the changing ecological balance of the world and its effect on human prosperity. The problems caused by global warning, climate change and environmental degradation will have serious effects in both the short and the long term. Two of the 18 articles fall within INIS scope: these have been indexed separately. Tabs

  14. Variation of Vegetation Ecological Water Consumption and Its Response to Vegetation Coverage Changes in the Rocky Desertification Areas in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Long; Tong, Jing; Zhou, Jinxing; Guo, Hongyan; Cui, Ming; Liu, Yuguo; Ning, Like; Tang, Fukai

    2016-01-01

    Over the past several decades, rocky desertification has led to severe ecological problems in karst areas in South China. After a rocky desertification treatment project was completed, the vegetation coverage changed greatly and, consequently, increased the ecology water consumption (approximately equal to the actual evapotranspiration) of the regional vegetation. Thus, it intensified the regional water stresses. This study explored the changes in the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) response to the vegetation coverage changes in the rocky desertification areas in South China based on the precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ETp) and NDVI (the normalized difference vegetation index) datasets. The revised Bagrov model was used to simulate the actual evapotranspiration changes with the supposed increasing NDVI. The results indicated that the average NDVI value was lower when the rocky desertification was more severe. The ETa, evapotranspiration efficiency (ETa/ETp) and potential humidity (P/ETp) generally increased with the increasing NDVI. The sensitivity of the ETa response to vegetation coverage changes varied due to different precipitation conditions and different rocky desertification severities. The ETa was more sensitive under drought conditions. When a drought occurred, the ETa exhibited an average increase of 40~60 mm with the NDVI increasing of 0.1 in the rocky desertification areas. Among the 5 different severity categories of rocky desertification, the ETa values' responses to NDVI changes were less sensitive in the severe rocky desertification areas but more sensitive in the extremely and potential rocky desertification areas. For example, with the NDVI increasing of 0.025, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.1, the corresponding ETa changes increased by an average of 2.64 mm, 10.62 mm, 19.19 mm, and 27.58 mm, respectively, in severe rocky desertification areas but by 4.94 mm, 14.99 mm, 26.80, and 37.13 mm, respectively, in extremely severe rocky

  15. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    Shankar Adhikari; Himlal Baral; Craig Nitschke

    2018-01-01

    Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being...

  16. Transitions in Arctic ecosystems: Ecological implications of a changing hydrological regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrona, Frederick J.; Johansson, Margareta; Culp, Joseph M.; Jenkins, Alan; Mârd, Johanna; Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Prowse, Terry D.; Vincent, Warwick F.; Wookey, Philip A.

    2016-03-01

    Numerous international scientific assessments and related articles have, during the last decade, described the observed and potential impacts of climate change as well as other related environmental stressors on Arctic ecosystems. There is increasing recognition that observed and projected changes in freshwater sources, fluxes, and storage will have profound implications for the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and ecological processes and properties of Arctic terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. However, a significant level of uncertainty remains in relation to forecasting the impacts of an intensified hydrological regime and related cryospheric change on ecosystem structure and function. As the terrestrial and freshwater ecology component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review these uncertainties and recommend enhanced coordinated circumpolar research and monitoring efforts to improve quantification and prediction of how an altered hydrological regime influences local, regional, and circumpolar-level responses in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Specifically, we evaluate (i) changes in ecosystem productivity; (ii) alterations in ecosystem-level biogeochemical cycling and chemical transport; (iii) altered landscapes, successional trajectories, and creation of new habitats; (iv) altered seasonality and phenological mismatches; and (v) gains or losses of species and associated trophic interactions. We emphasize the need for developing a process-based understanding of interecosystem interactions, along with improved predictive models. We recommend enhanced use of the catchment scale as an integrated unit of study, thereby more explicitly considering the physical, chemical, and ecological processes and fluxes across a full freshwater continuum in a geographic region and spatial range of hydroecological units (e.g., stream-pond-lake-river-near shore marine environments).

  17. National parks, ecological integrity and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopoukhine, N.

    1990-01-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on the national parks of Canada are discussed. There is a requirement to protect and manage national parks to maintain a functioning ecosystem with all its parts and processes. An active management regime is necessary, with objectives of ecological diversity/integrity clearly stated. The national parks located in the Canadian Prairie provinces are on or near transitions from forest to tundra and grasslands, and are likely to exhibit the most dramatic changes. The change in vegetation of such parks and in others will not manifest itself simply as a shift of zones but will be accompanied by a flora with new dominants. The boreal forest within the Prairie provinces is fire dependent and has the potential of being transformed into remnant units should post-fire germination be hampered by climatic change. A rapid change in climate would render national parks unable to provide protection of representative elements of Canada's landscapes as presently known. A threefold increase in the area dedicated to protection is a basic component of the sustainable development prescription. All government and private lands dedicated to protection should be forged into a network, to provide core protection for immigrating and emigrating communities and individual species displaced by a changing climate. 20 refs., 2 figs

  18. Ecological Land Fragmentation Evaluation and Dynamic Change of a Typical Black Soil Farming Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhan Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is a land use category provided with considerable ecological value and a vital indicator reflecting regional eco-environmental quality. However, it has experienced severe fragmentation during the rapid urbanization in China which strongly threatened the regional ecological security, land use pattern and human living environment. Therefore, analysis of spatiotemporal change of ecological land use and ecological landscape pattern is particularly essential. In this paper, a case study was made in Nong’an County, which is a typical black soil farming area located in northeast China facing severe conflicts among cultivated land protection, urban expansion and ecological security. A landscape fragmentation evaluation model was proposed to measure the degree of regional ecological land fragmentation. We also determined the land use change features through the methods of dynamic change information exploration and by performing transfer trajectory analysis during the period from 1996 to 2014. The results showed that the ecological land in Nong’an County has experienced increasing fragmentation during the past 18 years. The statistical results showed that the land transition between ecological land and other land categories was quite frequent, and it especially appeared as a dramatic decline of grassland and severe increase of saline-alkali land. In addition, human interferences especially construction activities and cultivated land occupation were still the dominant factors to the fragmentation of ecological land and the frequent transition among the land use categories. The fragmentation degree showed a downward tendency at the end of the study, which indicated noticeable benefits of land use regulation and land protection policies directed towards land ecological value. This study aims to provide a scientific evaluation model for measuring ecological land fragmentation degree, and figure out the regional land use transition

  19. EMAP/NOAA 2003 SURVEY OF ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINENTAL SHELF, INCLUDING GULF OF FARALLONES NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

    Science.gov (United States)

    In June of 2003 a partnership between EPA, NOAA, and the western coastal states conducted a joint survey of ecological condition of aquatic resources along the U.S. western continental shelf (30-120 m), using multiple indicators of ecological condition. The study is an element o...

  20. Ecology and Evolution: Islands of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, Richard

    This book was designed for middle and junior high school science classes and focuses on island biogeography, ecology, and evolution. Sections include: (1) "Galapagos: Frame of Reference"; (2) "Ecology and Islands"; and (3) "Evolution." Nineteen standards-based activities use the Galapagos Islands as a running theme…

  1. Climate change on Twitter: Content, media ecology and information sharing behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltri, Giuseppe A; Atanasova, Dimitrinka

    2017-08-01

    This article presents a study of the content, use of sources and information sharing about climate change analysing over 60,000 tweets collected using a random week sample. We discuss the potential for studying Twitter as a communicative space that is rich in different types of information and presents both new challenges and opportunities. Our analysis combines automatic thematic analysis, semantic network analysis and text classification according to psychological process categories. We also consider the media ecology of tweets and the external web links that users shared. In terms of content, the network of topics uncovered presents a multidimensional discourse that accounts for complex causal links between climate change and its consequences. The media ecology analysis revealed a narrow set of sources with a major role played by traditional media and that emotionally arousing text was more likely to be shared.

  2. Using water quality to assess ecological condition in the St. Marys River and Huron-Erie Corridor

    Science.gov (United States)

    The St. Marys River and Huron-Erie-Corridor were assessed by EPA for the first time in 2014-2016 as part of the National Coastal Condition Assessment (NCCA). NCCA uses a probabilistic survey design to allow unbiased assessment of ecological condition across the entire Great Lakes...

  3. Ecological genomics for coral and sea urchin conservation in times of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpizo-Ituarte, E.; Hofmann, G.; Fangue, N.; Cupul-Magaña, A.; Rodríguez-Troncoso, A. P.; Díaz-Pérez, L.; Olivares Bañuelos, T.; Escobar Fernández, R.

    2010-03-01

    If atmospheric CO2 levels continue to increase, it is predicted that the average ocean sea surface temperature will also increase and ocean pH will decrease to levels not experienced by marine organisms for millions of years. Understanding the impact of these stressors will require the study of several marine organisms, and this knowledge will be fundamental to our ability to predict possible effects along large geographical regions and across phyla. Ecological genomics, defined as the use of molecular techniques to answer ecological questions, offers a set of tools that can help us better understand the responses of marine organisms to changes in their environment. In the present work we are using genomic tools to characterize the response of corals and sea urchins to environmental stress. On one side, coral species represent a useful model due to its functions as "environmental sentinels" in tropical ecosystems; on the other hand, species of sea urchins, with the recent sequence of the genome of the purple sea urchin S. purpuratus, offers important genomic resources. Recent results in corals and in sea urchins have shown that the response to stressful conditions can be detected using molecular genomic markers. Continued study of the mRNA expression patterns of several important gene families including calcification genes as well as genes involved in the cellular stress response such as heat shock proteins, will be valuable index of ecological stress in marine systems. These data can be integrated into better strategies of conservation and management of the oceans.

  4. Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

    2018-01-01

    Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

  5. Integrating scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of global change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacoby, H.D.; Yang, Z.

    1994-01-01

    The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is conducting research on methods for integrating the science of potential global change with economic analysis of litigation policies and quantification of economic and environmental impacts. The paper describes this work, with a focus on the way that research within the various contributing disciplines, and the design of their associated models, are influenced by the process of inclusion in an integrated framework for policy analysis. The results should contribute new insight into the relative importance of key feedbacks within the economy-climate-ecology system

  6. Ecological Security and Ecosystem Services in Response to Land Use Change in the Coastal Area of Jiangsu, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caiyao Xu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization, and the resulting land use/cover change, is a primary cause of the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems. Reclamation projects are seen as a way to strike a balance between socioeconomic development and maintenance of coastal ecosystems. Our aim was to understand the ecological changes to Jiangsu’s coastal wetland resulting from land use change since 1977 by using remote sensing and spatial analyses. The results indicate that: (1 The area of artificial land use expanded while natural land use was reduced, which emphasized an increase in production-orientated land uses at the expense of ecologically important wetlands; (2 It took 34 years for landscape ecological security and 39 years for ecosystem services to regain equilibrium. The coastal reclamation area would recover ecological equilibrium only after a minimum of 30 years; (3 The total ecosystem service value decreased significantly from $2.98 billion per year to $2.31 billion per year from 1977 to 2014. Food production was the only one ecosystem service function that consistently increased, mainly because of government policy; (4 The relationship between landscape ecological security and ecosystem services is complicated, mainly because of the scale effect of landscape ecology. Spatial analysis of changing gravity centers showed that landscape ecological security and ecosystem service quality became better in the north than the south over the study period.

  7. Shaping the role of 'fast' and 'slow' drivers of change in forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Agostino; Kelly, Claire; Wilson, Geoff A; Nolè, Angelo; Mancino, Giuseppe; Bajocco, Sofia; Salvati, Luca

    2016-03-15

    The temporal speeds and spatial scales at which ecosystem processes operate are often at odds with the scale and speed at which natural resources such as soil, water and vegetation are managed those. Scale mismatches often occur as a result of the time-lag between policy development, implementation and observable changes in natural capital in particular. In this study, we analyse some of the transformations that can occur in complex forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems undergoing biophysical and socioeconomic change. We use a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) applied to a representative set of variables to assess changes in components of natural, economic and social capitals over time. Our results indicate similarities among variables and spatial units (i.e. municipalities) which allows us to rank the variables used to describe the SES according to their rapidity of change. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in the fact that the assessment of rapidity-to-change, based on the MFA, takes into account the multivariate relationships among the system's variables, identifying the net rate of change for the whole system, and the relative impact that individual variables exert on the system itself. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of fast and slow variables on the evolution of socio-economic systems based on simplified multivariate procedures applicable to vastly different socio-economic contexts and conditions. This study also contributes to quantitative analysis methods for long-established socio-ecological systems, which may help in designing more effective, and sustainable land management strategies in environmentally sensitive areas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Biological diversity, ecology and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jutro, P.R.

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide climate change and loss of biodiversity are issues of global scope and importance that have recently become subjects of considerable public concern. Their perceived threat lies in their potential to disrupt ecological functioning and stability rather than from any direct threat they may pose to human health. Over the last 5 years, the international scientific community and the general public have become aware of the implications that atmospheric warming might have for world climate patterns and the resulting changes in the persistence, location, and composition of ecosystems worldwide. Human activities are currently responsible for a species loss rate that is the most extreme in millions of years, and an alarmingly increasing rate of transformation and fragmentation of natural landscapes. In the case of both global warming and reduction of biological diversity, man is affecting nature in an unprecedented fashion, on a global scale, and with unpredictable and frequently irreversible results

  9. Move it or lose it? The ecological ethics of relocating species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

    2010-10-01

    Managed relocation (also known as assisted colonization, assisted migration) is one of the more controversial proposals to emerge in the ecological community in recent years. A conservation strategy involving the translocation of species to novel ecosystems in anticipation of range shifts forced by climate change, managed relocation (MR) has divided many ecologists and conservationists, mostly because of concerns about the potential invasion risk of the relocated species in their new environments. While this is indeed an important consideration in any evaluation of MR, moving species across the landscape in response to predicted climate shifts also raises a number of larger and important ethical and policy challenges that need to be addressed. These include evaluating the implications of a more aggressive approach to species conservation, assessing MR as a broader ecological policy and philosophy that departs from longstanding scientific and management goals focused on preserving ecological integrity, and considering MR within a more comprehensive ethical and policy response to climate change. Given the complexity and novelty of many of the issues at stake in the MR debate, a more dynamic and pragmatic approach to ethical analysis and debate is needed to help ecologists, conservationists, and environmental decision makers come to grips with MR and the emerging ethical challenges of ecological policy and management under global environmental change.

  10. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fayle, Tom Maurice; Sam, Kateřina

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2017), s. 145-188 ISSN 2045-7758 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : data sharing * global biodiversity modeling * global change Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2016 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.2579/abstract

  11. A socio-ecological adaptive approach to contaminated mega-site management: From 'control and correct' to 'coping with change'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schirmer, Mario; Lyon, Ken; Armstrong, James E.; Farrell, Katharine N.

    2012-01-01

    Mega-sites have a notable impact on surrounding ecological systems. At such sites there are substantial risks associated with complex socio-ecological interactions that are hard to characterize, let alone model and predict. While the urge to control and clean-up mega-sites (control and correct) is understandable, rather than setting a goal of cleaning up such sites, we suggest a more realistic response strategy is to address these massive and persistent sources of contamination by acknowledging their position as new features of the socio-ecological landscapes within which they are located. As it seems nearly impossible to clean up such sites, we argue for consideration of a 'coping with change' rather than a 'control and correct' approach. This strategy recognizes that the current management option for a mega-site, in light of its physical complexities and due to changing societal preferences, geochemical transformations, hydrogeology knowledge and remedial technology options may not remain optimal in future, and therefore needs to be continuously adapted, as community, ecology, technology and understanding change over time. This approach creates an opportunity to consider the relationship between a mega-site and its human and ecological environments in a different and more dynamic way. Our proposed approach relies on iterative adaptive management to incorporate mega-site management into the overall socio-ecological systems of the site's context. This approach effectively embeds mega-site management planning in a triple bottom line and environmental sustainability structure, rather than simply using single measures of success, such as contaminant-based guidelines. Recognizing that there is probably no best solution for managing a mega-site, we present a starting point for engaging constructively with this seemingly intractable issue. Therefore, we aim to initiate discussion about a new approach to mega-site management, in which the complexity of the problems posed

  12. Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2014-01-01

    Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

  13. Agroclimatic conditions in Europe under climate change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Skjelvag, A. O.; Eitzinger, J.; Seguin, B.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rotter, R.; Iglesias, A.; Orlandini, S.; Dubrovský, Martin; Hlavinka, P.; Balek, J.; Eckersten, H.; Cloppet, E.; Calanca, P.; Vucetic, V.; Nejedlík, P.; Kumar, S.; Lalic, B.; Mestre, A.; Rossi, F.; Kozyra, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 7 (2011), s. 2298-2318 ISSN 1354-1013 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520; CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : agroclimatic extremes * agroclimatic index * climate- change impacts * crop production * environmental zones Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.862, year: 2011

  14. Continental cichlid radiations: functional diversity reveals the role of changing ecological opportunity in the Neotropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbour, Jessica Hilary; López-Fernández, Hernán

    2016-08-17

    Adaptive radiations have been hypothesized to contribute broadly to the diversity of organisms. Models of adaptive radiation predict that ecological opportunity and ecological release, the availability of empty ecological niches and the response by adapting lineages to occupy them, respectively, drive patterns of phenotypic and lineage diversification. Adaptive radiations driven by 'ecological opportunity' are well established in island systems; it is less clear if ecological opportunity influences continent-wide diversification. We use Neotropical cichlid fishes to test if variation in rates of functional evolution is consistent with changing ecological opportunity. Across a functional morphological axis associated with ram-suction feeding traits, evolutionary rates declined through time as lineages diversified in South America. Evolutionary rates of ram-suction functional morphology also appear to have accelerated as cichlids colonized Central America and encountered renewed opportunity. Our results suggest that ecological opportunity may play an important role in shaping patterns of morphological diversity of even broadly distributed lineages like Neotropical cichlids. © 2016 The Author(s).

  15. The logic of ecological patchiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grünbaum, Daniel

    2012-04-06

    Most ecological interactions occur in environments that are spatially and temporally heterogeneous-'patchy'-across a wide range of scales. In contrast, most theoretical models of ecological interactions, especially large-scale models applied to societal issues such as climate change, resource management and human health, are based on 'mean field' approaches in which the underlying patchiness of interacting consumers and resources is intentionally averaged out. Mean field ecological models typically have the advantages of tractability, few parameters and clear interpretation; more technically complex spatially explicit models, which resolve ecological patchiness at some (or all relevant) scales, generally lack these advantages. This report presents a heuristic analysis that incorporates important elements of consumer-resource patchiness with minimal technical complexity. The analysis uses scaling arguments to establish conditions under which key mechanisms-movement, reproduction and consumption-strongly affect consumer-resource interactions in patchy environments. By very general arguments, the relative magnitudes of these three mechanisms are quantified by three non-dimensional ecological indices: the Frost, Strathmann and Lessard numbers. Qualitative analysis based on these ecological indices provides a basis for conjectures concerning the expected characteristics of organisms, species interactions and ecosystems in patchy environments.

  16. Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  17. Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  18. Ecological opportunity and the adaptive diversification of lineages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellborn, Gary A; Langerhans, R Brian

    2015-01-01

    The tenet that ecological opportunity drives adaptive diversification has been central to theories of speciation since Darwin, yet no widely accepted definition or mechanistic framework for the concept currently exists. We propose a definition for ecological opportunity that provides an explicit mechanism for its action. In our formulation, ecological opportunity refers to environmental conditions that both permit the persistence of a lineage within a community, as well as generate divergent natural selection within that lineage. Thus, ecological opportunity arises from two fundamental elements: (1) niche availability, the ability of a population with a phenotype previously absent from a community to persist within that community and (2) niche discordance, the diversifying selection generated by the adaptive mismatch between a population's niche-related traits and the newly encountered ecological conditions. Evolutionary response to ecological opportunity is primarily governed by (1) spatiotemporal structure of ecological opportunity, which influences dynamics of selection and development of reproductive isolation and (2) diversification potential, the biological properties of a lineage that determine its capacity to diversify. Diversification under ecological opportunity proceeds as an increase in niche breadth, development of intraspecific ecotypes, speciation, and additional cycles of diversification that may themselves be triggered by speciation. Extensive ecological opportunity may exist in depauperate communities, but it is unclear whether ecological opportunity abates in species-rich communities. Because ecological opportunity should generally increase during times of rapid and multifarious environmental change, human activities may currently be generating elevated ecological opportunity - but so far little work has directly addressed this topic. Our framework highlights the need for greater synthesis of community ecology and evolutionary biology, unifying

  19. Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greaver, T.L.; Clark, C.M.; Compton, J.E.; Vallano, D.; Talhelm, A. F.; Weaver, C.P.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Davidson, E.A.; Tague, C.L.; Felker-Quinn, E.; Lynch, J.A.; Herrick, J.D.; Liu, L.; Goodale, C.L.; Novak, K. J.; Haeuber, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

  20. Groundwater decline and tree change in floodplain landscapes: Identifying non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kath

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater decline is widespread, yet its implications for natural systems are poorly understood. Previous research has revealed links between groundwater depth and tree condition; however, critical thresholds which might indicate ecological ‘tipping points’ associated with rapid and potentially irreversible change have been difficult to quantify. This study collated data for two dominant floodplain species, Eucalyptus camaldulensis (river red gum and E. populnea (poplar box from 118 sites in eastern Australia where significant groundwater decline has occurred. Boosted regression trees, quantile regression and Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between tree condition and groundwater depth. Distinct non-linear responses were found, with groundwater depth thresholds identified in the range from 12.1 m to 22.6 m for E. camaldulensis and 12.6 m to 26.6 m for E. populnea beyond which canopy condition declined abruptly. Non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition in these species may be linked to rooting depth, with chronic groundwater decline decoupling trees from deep soil moisture resources. The quantification of groundwater depth thresholds is likely to be critical for management aimed at conserving groundwater dependent biodiversity. Identifying thresholds will be important in regions where water extraction and drying climates may contribute to further groundwater decline. Keywords: Canopy condition, Dieback, Drought, Tipping point, Ecological threshold, Groundwater dependent ecosystems

  1. The political ecology of climate change adaptation livelihoods, agrarian change and the conflicts of development

    CERN Document Server

    Taylor, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    This book provides the first systematic critique of the concept of climate change adaptation within the field of international development. Drawing on a reworked political ecology framework, it argues that climate is not something 'out there' that we adapt to. Instead, it is part of the social and biophysical forces through which our lived environments are actively yet unevenly produced. From this original foundation, the book challenges us to rethink the concepts of climate change, vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity in transformed ways. With case studies drawn from Pakistan, Indi

  2. A novel integrative method for measuring body condition in ecological studies based on physiological dysregulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milot, E.; Cohen, A.A.; Vézina, F.; Buehler, D.M.; Matson, K.D.; Piersma, T.

    2014-01-01

    1. The body condition of free-ranging animals affects their response to stress, decisions, ability to fulfil vitalneeds and, ultimately, fitness. However, this key attribute in ecology remains difficult to assess, and there is aclear need for more integrativemeasures than the common univariate

  3. Morphological evolution, ecological diversification and climate change in rodents

    OpenAIRE

    Renaud, Sabrina; Michaux, Jacques; Schmidt, Daniela N; Aguilar, Jean-Pierre; Mein, Pierre; Auffray, Jean-Christophe

    2005-01-01

    Among rodents, the lineage from Progonomys hispanicus to Stephanomys documents a case of increasing size and dental specialization during an approximately 9 Myr time-interval. On the contrary, some contemporaneous generalist lineages like Apodemus show a limited morphological evolution. Dental shape can be related to diet and can be used to assess the ecological changes along the lineages. Consequently, size and shape of the first upper molar were measured in order to quantify the patterns of...

  4. Riparian rehabilitation planning in an urban-rural gradient: Integrating social needs and ecological conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida-Johnson, Bárbara; Zuleta, Gustavo A

    2017-09-01

    In the present context of global change and search for sustainability, we detected a gap between restoration and society: local communities are usually only considered as threats or disturbances when planning for restoration. To bridge this gap, we propose a landscape design framework for planning riparian rehabilitation in an urban-rural gradient. A spatial multi-criteria analysis was used to assess the priority of riversides by considering two rehabilitation objectives simultaneously-socio-environmental and ecological-and two sets of criteria were designed according to these objectives. The assessment made it possible to identify 17 priority sites for riparian rehabilitation that were associated with different conditions along the gradient. The double goal setting enabled a dual consideration of citizens, both as beneficiaries and potential impacts to rehabilitation, and the criteria selected incorporated the multi-dimensional nature of the environment. This approach can potentially be adapted and implemented in any other anthropic-natural interface throughout the world.

  5. Responses to climate and economic risks and opportunities across national and ecological boundaries: changing household strategies on the Mongolian plateau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Daniel G; Agrawal, Arun; Wang, Jun; Sass, Daniel A; Hua, Jin; Xie, Yichun

    2013-01-01

    Climate changes on the Mongolian Plateau are creating new challenges for the households and communities of the region. Much of the existing research on household choices in response to climate variability and change focuses on environmental risks and stresses. In contrast, our analysis highlights the importance of taking into account environmental and economic opportunities in explaining household adaptation choices. We surveyed over 750 households arrayed along an ecological gradient and matched across the national border in Mongolia and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, asking what changes in livelihoods strategies households made over the last ten years, and analyzed these choices in two broad categories of options: diversification and livestock management. We combined these data with remotely sensed information about vegetation growth and self-reported exposure to price fluctuations. Our statistical results showed that households experiencing lower ecological and economic variability, higher average levels of vegetation growth, and with greater levels of material wealth, were often those that undertook more actions to improve their conditions in the face of variability. The findings have implications both for how interventions aimed at supporting ongoing choices might be targeted and for theory construction related to social adaptation. (letter)

  6. The human dimensions of climate change: A micro-level assessment of views from the ecological modernization, political economy and human ecology perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adua, Lazarus; York, Richard; Schuelke-Leech, Beth-Anne

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the manifold human and physical dimensions of climate change has become an area of great interest to researchers in recent decades. Using a U.S. nationally-representative data set and drawing on the ecological modernization, political economy, and human ecology perspectives, this study examines the impacts of energy efficiency technologies, affluence, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics on residential CO2 emissions. Overall, the study provides mixed support for the ecological modernization perspective. While several findings are consistent with the theory's expectation that modern societies can harness technology to mitigate human impacts on the environment, others directly contradict it. Also, the theory's prediction of an inverted U-shaped relationship between affluence and environmental impacts is contradicted. The evidence is somewhat more supportive of the political economy and human ecology perspectives, with affluence, some indicators of technology, household demographics, and biophysical characteristics emerging as important drivers of residential CO2 emissions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The Futures Wheel: A method for exploring the implications of social-ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.N. Bengston

    2015-01-01

    Change in social-ecological systems often produces a cascade of unanticipated consequences. Natural resource professionals and other stakeholders need to understand the possible implications of cascading change to prepare for it. The Futures Wheel is a "smart group" method that uses a structured brainstorming process to uncover and evaluate multiple levels of...

  8. Ascribing value to ecological processes: an economic view of environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rex H. Schaberg; Thomas P. Holmes; Karen J. Lee; Robert C. Abt

    1999-01-01

    Decisions made by individual landowners and public land managers can have a significant impact on the rates of ecological change. Interdisciplinary cooperation is desirable if economists and ecologists are to correctly interpret the impacts of individual choices for landscape management. This paper reports results from two studies of the residents of North Carolina...

  9. Data Assimilation at FLUXNET to Improve Models towards Ecological Forecasting (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks such as FLUXNET call for transformation of ecological research to increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. Ecological forecasting will also meet the societal need to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-based models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today’s ecological models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting is data assimilation, which uses data to inform initial conditions and to help constrain a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. In an era with dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks, data assimilation is a key technique that helps convert the raw data into ecologically meaningful products so as to accelerate our understanding of ecological processes, test ecological theory, forecast changes in ecological services, and better serve the society. This talk will use examples to illustrate how data from FLUXNET have been assimilated with process-based models to improve estimates of model parameters and state variables; to quantify uncertainties in ecological forecasting arising from observations, models and their interactions; and to evaluate information contributions of data and model toward short- and long-term forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change.

  10. Development of ecological indicators of climate change based on lichen functional diversity

    OpenAIRE

    Matos, Paula Sofia Antunes

    2016-01-01

    Growing evidence shows us that climate has changed in the recent decades, and the scenario for the future will most likely worsen. A set of climate variables is being developed to monitor climate change, but this is not enough to keep track its effects on ecosystems. It’s imperative to understand and quantify how ecosystems functioning are affected by and respond to these changes, and ecological indicators based on biodiversity metrics are one of the tools to do this. The...

  11. Community variability and ecological functioning: 40 years of change in the North Sea benthos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, D S; Robinson, L A; Frid, C L J

    2015-06-01

    Using established associations between species traits (life history, morphological and behavioural characteristics) and key ecological functions, we applied biological traits analysis (BTA) to investigate the consequences of 40 years of change in two North Sea benthic communities. Ecological functioning (trait composition) was found to be statistically indistinguishable across periods that differed significantly in taxonomic composition. A temporary alteration to functioning was, however, inferred at both sampling stations; coinciding with the North Sea regime shift of the 1980s. Trait composition recovered after 1 year at the station located inside the grounds of a trawl fishery, whereas the station located outside the main area of fishing activity underwent a six-year period of significantly altered, and temporally unstable, trait composition. A further alteration to functioning was inferred at the fished station, when the population of a newly established species rapidly increased in numbers. The results suggest that density compensation by characteristically similar (redundant) taxa acts to buffer changes to ecological functioning over time, but that functional stability is subject to aperiodic disruption due to substitutions of dissimilar taxa or uncompensated population fluctuations. The rate at which ecological functioning stabilises and recovers appears to be dependent on environmental context; e.g. disturbance regime. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. A Framework to Quantify the Strength of the Ecological Links ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anthropogenic stressors such as climate change, fire, and pollution are driving shifts in ecosystem function and resilience. Scientists generally rely on biological indicators of these stressors to signal that ecosystem conditions have been altered beyond an acceptable amount. However, these biological indicators are not always capable of being directly related to ecosystem services that allow scientists to communicate the importance of the change to land managers and policy makers. Therefore, we developed the STEPS (STressor – Ecological Production function – final ecosystem goods and Services) Framework to link changes in a biological indicator of a stressor to Final Ecosystem Goods and Services (FEGS). The STEPS framework produces “chains” of ecological components that connect the change in a biological indicator to the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services Classification System (FEGS-CS). The series of ecological components is an ecological production functions (EPF) which links a biological indicator of a stressor to an ecological endpoint (i.e., FEGS) that is directly used, appreciated, or valued by humans. The framework uses a qualitative score (High, Medium, Low) for the Strength of Science (SOS) for the relationship between each of the components in the EPF to identify research gaps and prioritize decision making based on what research has been completed. The ecological endpoint of the EPF is a FEGS to which discrete Beneficiaries, or direct users

  13. Woodland restoration in Scotland: ecology, history, culture, economics, politics and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, Richard

    2009-07-01

    In the latter half of the 20th century, native pine woodlands in Scotland were restricted to small remnant areas within which there was little regeneration. These woodlands are important from a conservation perspective and are habitat for numerous species of conservation concern. Recent developments have seen a large increase in interest in woodland restoration and a dramatic increase in regeneration and woodland spread. The proximate factor enabling this regeneration is a reduction in grazing pressure from sheep and, particularly, deer. However, this has only been possible as a result of a complex interplay between ecological, political and socio-economic factors. We are currently seeing the decline of land management practices instituted 150-200 years ago, changes in land ownership patterns, cultural revival, and changes in societal perceptions of the Scottish landscape. These all feed into the current move to return large areas of the Scottish Highlands to tree cover. I emphasize the need to consider restoration in a multidisciplinary framework which accounts not just for the ecology involved but also the historical and cultural context.

  14. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-01

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

  15. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  16. Molecular ecological network analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Ye; Jiang, Yi-Huei; Yang, Yunfeng; He, Zhili; Luo, Feng; Zhou, Jizhong

    2012-05-30

    Understanding the interaction among different species within a community and their responses to environmental changes is a central goal in ecology. However, defining the network structure in a microbial community is very challenging due to their extremely high diversity and as-yet uncultivated status. Although recent advance of metagenomic technologies, such as high throughout sequencing and functional gene arrays, provide revolutionary tools for analyzing microbial community structure, it is still difficult to examine network interactions in a microbial community based on high-throughput metagenomics data. Here, we describe a novel mathematical and bioinformatics framework to construct ecological association networks named molecular ecological networks (MENs) through Random Matrix Theory (RMT)-based methods. Compared to other network construction methods, this approach is remarkable in that the network is automatically defined and robust to noise, thus providing excellent solutions to several common issues associated with high-throughput metagenomics data. We applied it to determine the network structure of microbial communities subjected to long-term experimental warming based on pyrosequencing data of 16 S rRNA genes. We showed that the constructed MENs under both warming and unwarming conditions exhibited topological features of scale free, small world and modularity, which were consistent with previously described molecular ecological networks. Eigengene analysis indicated that the eigengenes represented the module profiles relatively well. In consistency with many other studies, several major environmental traits including temperature and soil pH were found to be important in determining network interactions in the microbial communities examined. To facilitate its application by the scientific community, all these methods and statistical tools have been integrated into a comprehensive Molecular Ecological Network Analysis Pipeline (MENAP), which is open

  17. Evaluating Structural and Functional Characteristics of Various Ecological Patches in Different Range Conditions (Case Study: Semi -Steppe Rangeland of Aghche-Isfahan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Jafari

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Rangeland condition assessment plays an important role in determining range health and applying appropriate management programs. This study aimed to evaluate the structure and function of a semi-steppe rangeland using Landscape Function Analysis technique (LFA in different land conditions in western Isfahan province, Iran. For this purpose, 4, 3 and 7 sites in different rangeland condition classes including very poor, poor, and moderate were selected respectively. In each site, a 30-meter transect was established and all kinds of patches and inter patches were identified and their lengths and widths were recorded. Also, in each ecological patch, 11 indicators of soil surface characteristics with three replications were measured, and their status was scored according to LFA method. The functionality indices of all the sites including soil stability, infiltration and nutrient cycling were measured. According to the statistical analysis results, most of the structural characteristics (number of patches, patch length, patch area index, landscape organization index and functional indices (infiltration, stability and nutrient cycling status varied significantly (α= 5% between rangeland sites with moderate and very poor condition. The changes of these structural and functional characteristics were not significant between range sites with moderate and poor, and also poor and very poor range conditions. According to the findings of this study, patch types' functionalities did not vary significantly in both rangeland sites with moderate and very poor conditions. The nutrient cycling index in patches formed by ‘forb, shrub and grass’ with poor range condition was significantly more than ‘forb’ and ‘grass’ patches. The study of range site functionality can assist managers in identifying possible ecological thresholds and prioritizing the sub-catchments and vegetation types for implementing range improvement practices.

  18. Building resilience to social-ecological change through farmers' learning practices in semi-arid Makueni County Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe; Kiteme, Boniface; Kimathi Mbae, John; Schmude, Miron

    2015-04-01

    Social-ecological change is resulting in various risks and opportunities to farmers, which they address through complex multi-strategies to sustain their agricultural-based livelihoods and agricultural landscapes. This paper examines how various stakeholders such as research and government organisations, local and international non-governmental organisations, private companies, farmer groups, individual actors and farmers draw on scientific, external and localised knowledge to address the needs of farmers in sustainable land management and food production. What is the structure of collaboration between the various actors and how does this influence the potential for learning, not only for the farmers but also for other stakeholders? How does the supplied knowledge meet farmers' knowledge needs and demands for sustainable land management and food production? To what extent and how is knowledge co-produced among the various stakeholders? What different types of learning can be identified and what are their influences on farmers' sustainable land management practices? How does farmer learning foster the resilience of agricultural landscapes? Answers to these questions are sought through a case study in the semi-arid areas of Makueni County, Kenya. Particular environmental risks in the study area relate to recurrent droughts and flooding, soil erosion and general land degradation. Opportunities in the study area arise short-term due to more conducive rainfall conditions for crop and vegetation growth, institutional arrangements that foster sustainable land management such as agroforestry programmes and conservation agriculture projects. While farmers observe changes in their environment, they weigh the various risks and opportunities that arise from their social-ecological context and their own capacity to respond leading to the prioritization of certain adaptations relative to others. This can mean that while certain farmers may have knowledge on sustainable land

  19. Global change: Ecology of Greenlandish and Siberian shelf areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This work aimed to study the distribution and structure of pelagic and benthal biocoenoses in two areas, the continental shelf of eastern Greenland and the northern Barents Sea, and to compare them in relation to their ecological boundary conditions. Furthermore, aspects of ontogenetic and ecophysiological adaptations of key species were investigated. The programme followed a fourfold approach: 1) Inventory of fauna, 2) analysis of the distribution and composition of communities, 3) autecological studies of selected key species, 4) description of associations between community structures, autecological adaptations, and special environmental conditions. In this way an inventory of pelagic and benthal biocoenoses in the two areas of investigation was prepared also with a view to further studies. Different modern sampling and data acquisition methods were used to ensure covering a broad spectrum of forms and sizes of fauna. (orig./KW) [de

  20. Studying the complexity of change: toward an analytical framework for understanding deliberate social-ecological transformations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele-Lee Moore

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Faced with numerous seemingly intractable social and environmental challenges, many scholars and practitioners are increasingly interested in understanding how to actively engage and transform the existing systems holding such problems in place. Although a variety of analytical models have emerged in recent years, most emphasize either the social or ecological elements of such transformations rather than their coupled nature. To address this, first we have presented a definition of the core elements of a social-ecological system (SES that could potentially be altered in a transformation. Second, we drew on insights about transformation from three branches of literature focused on radical change, i.e., social movements, socio-technical transitions, and social innovation, and gave consideration to the similarities and differences with the current studies by resilience scholars. Drawing on these findings, we have proposed a framework that outlines the process and phases of transformative change in an SES. Future research will be able to utilize the framework as a tool for analyzing the alteration of social-ecological feedbacks, identifying critical barriers and leverage points and assessing the outcome of social-ecological transformations.

  1. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  2. Identifying socio-ecological networks in rural-urban gradients: Diagnosis of a changing cultural landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaiz-Schmitz, C; Schmitz, M F; Herrero-Jáuregui, C; Gutiérrez-Angonese, J; Pineda, F D; Montes, C

    2018-01-15

    Socio-ecological systems maintain reciprocal interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic structures. As a result of these interactions key essential services for society emerge. Urban expansion is a direct driver of land change and cause serious shifts in socio-ecological relationships and the associated lifestyles. The framework of rural-urban gradients has proved to be a powerful tool for ecological research about urban influences on ecosystems and on sociological issues related to social welfare. However, to date there has not been an attempt to achieve a classification of municipalities in rural-urban gradients based on socio-ecological interactions. In this paper, we developed a methodological approach that allows identifying and classifying a set of socio-ecological network configurations in the Region of Madrid, a highly dynamic cultural landscape considered one of the European hotspots in urban development. According to their socio-ecological links, the integrated model detects four groups of municipalities, ordered along a rural-urban gradient, characterized by their degree of biophysical and socioeconomic coupling and different indicators of landscape structure and social welfare. We propose the developed model as a useful tool to improve environmental management schemes and land planning from a socio-ecological perspective, especially in territories subject to intense urban transformations and loss of rurality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  4. Vegetation relevés and soil measurements in the Netherlands: the Ecological Conditions Database (EC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamelink, G.W.W.; Adrichem, van M.H.C.; Dobben, van H.F.; Frissel, J.Y.; Held, den M.E.; Joosten, V.; Malinowska, A.H.; Slim, P.A.; Wegman, R.M.A.

    2012-01-01

    Since its establishment around 1990, the Ecological Conditions Database (EC; GIVD ID EU-00-006) has been accumulating vegetation relevés from the Netherlands, each accompanied by at least one abiotic soil measurement (e.g. pH or nutrient availability). On 1-1-2010, the database contained 8,229

  5. Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

    2017-07-01

    Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water

  6. Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water

  7. [Regional ecological construction and mission of landscape ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Duning; Xie, Fuju; Wei, Jianbing

    2004-10-01

    The eco-construction on regional and landscape scale is the one which can be used to specific landscape and intercrossing ecosystem in specific region including performing scientific administration of ecosystem and optimizing environmental function. Recently, the government has taken a series of significant projects into action, such as national forest protection item, partly forest restoration, and adjustment of water, etc. Enforcing regional eco-construction and maintaining the ecology security of the nation have become the strategic requisition. In various regions, different eco-construction should be applied, for example, performing ecological safeguard measure in ecological sensitive zone, accommodating the ecological load in ecological fragile zone, etc., which can control the activities of human being, so that, sustainable development can be reached. Facing opportunity and challenge in the development of landscape ecology, we have some key topics: landscape pattern of ecological security, land use and ecological process, landscape changes under human activity stress, quantitative evaluation of the influence on human being activities, evaluation of zonal ecological security and advance warning of ecological risk, and planning and optimizing of model in landscape eco-construction.

  8. An evaluation of the chemical, radiological, and ecological conditions of West Lake on the Hanford site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poston, T.M.; Price, K.L.; Newcomer, D.R.

    1991-03-01

    West Lake and its immediate surrounding basin represent a unique habitat that is dominated by highly saline water and soil. The basin offers a valuable research site for studies of a rare and complex wetland area in the desert. This report is an evaluation of the chemical, radiological, and ecological conditions at West Lake and describes how ground water influences site properties. The scope of this evaluation consisted of a sampling program in 1989 and a review of data from the perspective of assessing the impact of Hanford Site operations on the physical, chemical, and ecological conditions of West Lake and its surrounding basin. The water level in West Lake fluctuates in relation to changes in the water table. The connection between West Lake and ground water is also supported by the presence of {sup 3}H and {sup 99}Tc in the ground water and in the lake. There are relatively high concentrations of uranium in West Lake; the highest concentrations are found in the northernmost isolated pool. Analyses of water, sediment, vegetation, and soil indicate possible shifts of isotropic ratios that indicate a reduction of {sup 235}U. Uranium-236 was not detected in West Lake water; its presence would indicate neutron-activated {sup 235}U from fuel reprocessing at Hanford. Trace metals are found at elevated concentrations in West Lake. Arsenic, chromium, copper, and zinc were found at levels in excess of US Environmental Protection Agency water quality criteria. Levels of radiological and chemical contamination in the West Lake basin are relatively low. Concentrations of fission isotopes exceed those that could be explained by atmospheric fallout, but fall short of action levels for active waste management areas. 31 refs., 8 figs., 18 tabs.

  9. An evaluation of the chemical, radiological, and ecological conditions of West Lake on the Hanford site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, T.M.; Price, K.L.; Newcomer, D.R.

    1991-03-01

    West Lake and its immediate surrounding basin represent a unique habitat that is dominated by highly saline water and soil. The basin offers a valuable research site for studies of a rare and complex wetland area in the desert. This report is an evaluation of the chemical, radiological, and ecological conditions at West Lake and describes how ground water influences site properties. The scope of this evaluation consisted of a sampling program in 1989 and a review of data from the perspective of assessing the impact of Hanford Site operations on the physical, chemical, and ecological conditions of West Lake and its surrounding basin. The water level in West Lake fluctuates in relation to changes in the water table. The connection between West Lake and ground water is also supported by the presence of 3 H and 99 Tc in the ground water and in the lake. There are relatively high concentrations of uranium in West Lake; the highest concentrations are found in the northernmost isolated pool. Analyses of water, sediment, vegetation, and soil indicate possible shifts of isotropic ratios that indicate a reduction of 235 U. Uranium-236 was not detected in West Lake water; its presence would indicate neutron-activated 235 U from fuel reprocessing at Hanford. Trace metals are found at elevated concentrations in West Lake. Arsenic, chromium, copper, and zinc were found at levels in excess of US Environmental Protection Agency water quality criteria. Levels of radiological and chemical contamination in the West Lake basin are relatively low. Concentrations of fission isotopes exceed those that could be explained by atmospheric fallout, but fall short of action levels for active waste management areas. 31 refs., 8 figs., 18 tabs

  10. Changing tides: ecological and historical perspectives on fish cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, B Wren; Braithwaite, Victoria A

    2015-01-01

    The capacity for specialization and radiation make fish an excellent group in which to investigate the depth and variety of animal cognition. Even though early observations of fish using tools predates the discovery of tool use in chimpanzees, fish cognition has historically been somewhat overlooked. However, a recent surge of interest is now providing a wealth of material on which to draw examples, and this has required a selective approach to choosing the research described below. Our goal is to illustrate the necessity for basing cognitive investigations on the ecological and evolutionary context of the species at hand. We also seek to illustrate the importance of ecology and the environment in honing a range of sensory systems that allow fish to glean information and support informed decision-making. The various environments and challenges with which fish interact require equally varied cognitive skills, and the solutions that fish have developed are truly impressive. Similarly, we illustrate how common ecological problems will frequently produce common cognitive solutions. Below, we focus on four topics: spatial learning and memory, avoiding predators and catching prey, communication, and innovation. These are used to illustrate how both simple and sophisticated cognitive processes underpin much of the adaptive behavioral flexibility exhibited throughout fish phylogeny. Never before has the field had such a wide array of interdisciplinary techniques available to access both cognitive and mechanistic processes underpinning fish behavior. This capacity comes at a critical time to predict and manage fish populations in an era of unprecedented global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Social and ecological factors in the formation of population health in surveillance zone of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prilipko, V.A.; Petrichenko, O.O.

    2014-01-01

    Most people of radiation-control area estimated ecological state as safe. Respondents pointed to such ecological factors as radionuclide pollutions, irresponsible ecological behavior of people, Rivne Nuclear Power Plant functioning consequences. The last one affects changes of water sanitation and ecological parameters.There is no significant difference between mental state of people of radiation-control area and control group of people by GHQ-28 indices, by somatization scale, anxiety, social disfunction and reactive anxiety. The living life peculiarities are grounded by double risk: life in conditions of radioactive polluted territory and life in radiation-control area. Authors defined the correlation between mental state and factors that characterize ecological living conditions

  12. Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance I. Millar

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

  13. Program on ecosystem change and society: An international research strategy for integrated social-ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R.; Folke, C.; Norström, A.V.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.A.; Scholes, R.J.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  14. Program on ecosystem change and society: an international research strategy for integrated social–ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carpenter, S.R; Folke, C.; Nordström, A.; Olsson, O.; Schultz, L.; Agarwal, B.; Balvanera, P.; Campbell, B.; Castilla, J.C.; Cramer, W.; DeFries, R.; Eyzaguirre, P.; Hughes, T.P.; Polasky, S.; Sanusi, Z.; Spierenburg, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    The Program on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), a new initiative within the ICSU global change programs, aims to integrate research on the stewardship of social-ecological systems, the services they generate, and the relationships among natural capital, human wellbeing, livelihoods, inequality

  15. Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilera, Stacy E; Cole, Jennifer; Finkbeiner, Elena M; Le Cornu, Elodie; Ban, Natalie C; Carr, Mark H; Cinner, Joshua E; Crowder, Larry B; Gelcich, Stefan; Hicks, Christina C; Kittinger, John N; Martone, Rebecca; Malone, Daniel; Pomeroy, Carrie; Starr, Richard M; Seram, Sanah; Zuercher, Rachel; Broad, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Globally, small-scale fisheries are influenced by dynamic climate, governance, and market drivers, which present social and ecological challenges and opportunities. It is difficult to manage fisheries adaptively for fluctuating drivers, except to allow participants to shift effort among multiple fisheries. Adapting to changing conditions allows small-scale fishery participants to survive economic and environmental disturbances and benefit from optimal conditions. This study explores the relative influence of large-scale drivers on shifts in effort and outcomes among three closely linked fisheries in Monterey Bay since the Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identify four modes from 1974 to 2012 that are dominated (i.e., a given species accounting for the plurality of landings) by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lack any dominance, and seven points of transition among these periods. This approach enables us to determine which drivers are associated with each mode and each transition. Overall, we show that market and climate drivers are predominantly attributed to dominance transitions. Model selection of external drivers indicates that governance phases, reflected as perceived abundance, dictate long-term outcomes. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

  16. Right to life in constitution: An ecological view

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlović Slobodan P.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This work deals with the right to life from the specific ecological view. Actually, it is analysing the relationship between two human rights defined by the Constitution: the right to life and the right to healthy environment. Their relationship is very close and, specifically said, it is: obvious, conditional, permanent and growing. This could not bet concluded if the time of occurrence (Constitutional regulation of these rights is considered. The right to life is the oldest human right while the right to healthy environment belongs to new generation of human rights. However, if the contents of the right to life and the right to healthy environment are compared, it becomes clear that those two human rights are interwoven with each other. Development of states and change of life conditions of citizens will also change the content of right to life, by following ecological standards. This means that the interdependence of those two rights will be larger and more complex.

  17. Changes in composition, ecology and structure of high-mountain vegetation: a re-visitation study over 42 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangelista, Alberto; Frate, Ludovico; Carranza, Maria Laura; Attorre, Fabio; Pelino, Giovanni; Stanisci, Angela

    2016-01-27

    High-mountain ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change, causing biodiversity loss, habitat degradation and landscape modifications. However, very few detailed studies have focussed on plant biodiversity in the high mountains of the Mediterranean. In this study, we investigated the long-term changes that have occurred in the composition, structure and ecology of high-mountain vegetation in the central Apennines (Majella) over the last 42 years. We performed a re-visitation study, using historical and newly collected vegetation data to explore which ecological and structural features have been the most successful in coping with climatic changes. Vegetation changes were analysed by comparing geo-referenced phytosociological relevés collected in high-mountain habitats (dolines, gentle slopes and ridges) on the Majella massif in 1972 and in 2014. Composition analysis was performed by detrended correspondence analysis, followed by an analysis of similarities for statistical significance assessment and by similarity percentage procedure (SIMPER) for identifying which species indicate temporal changes. Changes in ecological and structural indicators were analysed by a permutational multivariate analysis of variance, followed by a post hoc comparison. Over the last 42 years, clear floristic changes and significant ecological and structural variations occurred. We observed a significant increase in the thermophilic and mesonitrophilic plant species and an increment in the frequencies of hemicryptophytes. This re-visitation study in the Apennines agrees with observations in other alpine ecosystems, providing new insights for a better understanding of the effects of global change on Mediterranean high-mountain biodiversity. The observed changes in floristic composition, the thermophilization process and the shift towards a more nutrient-demanding vegetation are likely attributable to the combined effect of higher temperatures and the increase in soil nutrients

  18. Land use changes and its driving forces in hilly ecological restoration area based on gis and rs of northern china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Peng; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Zheng, Yunlong

    2015-01-01

    Land use change is one of the important aspects of the regional ecological restoration research. With remote sensing (RS) image in 2003, 2007 and 2012, using geographic information system (GIS) technologies, the land use pattern changes in Yimeng Mountain ecological restoration area in China and its driving force factors were studied. Results showed that: (1) Cultivated land constituted the largest area during 10 years, and followed by forest land and grass land; cultivated land and unused land were reduced by 28.43% and 44.32%, whereas forest land, water area and land for water facilities and others were increased. (2) During 2003–2007, forest land change showed the largest, followed by unused land and grass land; however, during 2008–2012, water area and land for water facilities change showed the largest, followed by grass land and unused land. (3) Land use degree was above the average level, it was in the developing period during 2003–2007 and in the degenerating period during 2008–2012. (4) Ecological Restoration Projects can greatly change the micro topography, increase vegetation coverage, and then induce significant changes in the land use distribution, which were the main driving force factors of the land use pattern change in the ecological restoration area. PMID:26047160

  19. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Catherine; Renaud, Sabrina

    2012-01-01

    Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological

  20. Disparity changes in 370 Ma Devonian fossils: the signature of ecological dynamics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Girard

    Full Text Available Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure

  1. Camouflage through colour change: mechanisms, adaptive value and ecological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Rafael C; Flores, Augusto A V; Stevens, Martin

    2017-07-05

    Animals from a wide range of taxonomic groups are capable of colour change, of which camouflage is one of the main functions. A considerable amount of past work on this subject has investigated species capable of extremely rapid colour change (in seconds). However, relatively slow colour change (over hours, days, weeks and months), as well as changes arising via developmental plasticity are probably more common than rapid changes, yet less studied. We discuss three key areas of colour change and camouflage. First, we review the mechanisms underpinning colour change and developmental plasticity for camouflage, including cellular processes, visual feedback, hormonal control and dietary factors. Second, we discuss the adaptive value of colour change for camouflage, including the use of different camouflage types. Third, we discuss the evolutionary-ecological implications of colour change for concealment, including what it can tell us about intraspecific colour diversity, morph-specific strategies, and matching to different environments and microhabitats. Throughout, we discuss key unresolved questions and present directions for future work, and highlight how colour change facilitates camouflage among habitats and arises when animals are faced with environmental changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales.This article is part of the themed issue 'Animal coloration: production, perception, function and application'. © 2017 The Authors.

  2. Ecological implications of changes in polychaetes population in a shallow Danish estuary

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delefosse, Matthieu

    Burrowing polychaetes are typically the most numerous and active class among macrobenthic infauna in Danish estuaries. Their ecological role is well-recognized and has been often associated with their bioturbating activities. Construction and maintenance of galleries as well as ingestion and defe......Burrowing polychaetes are typically the most numerous and active class among macrobenthic infauna in Danish estuaries. Their ecological role is well-recognized and has been often associated with their bioturbating activities. Construction and maintenance of galleries as well as ingestion...... and defecation displace sediment particles. Ventilation of their burrow irrigates the sediment. These activities transform the environment for other species: from microbes to plants (MS5). Given the important relations between bioturbating polychaetes and their ecosystem, any significant changes in population...... of a key species may have consequent impact on the ecosystem. The introduction of non-native species is an important vector of change for the often species-poor benthic community of Danish estuaries. Non-native species may bring new functions but also interact with native fauna species. The work presented...

  3. A policy-driven large scale ecological restoration: quantifying ecosystem services changes in the Loess Plateau of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Yihe; Fu, Bojie; Feng, Xiaoming; Zeng, Yuan; Liu, Yu; Chang, Ruiying; Sun, Ge; Wu, Bingfang

    2012-01-01

    As one of the key tools for regulating human-ecosystem relations, environmental conservation policies can promote ecological rehabilitation across a variety of spatiotemporal scales. However, quantifying the ecological effects of such policies at the regional level is difficult. A case study was conducted at the regional level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, China, through the use of several methods including the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), hydrological modeling and multivariate analysis. An assessment of the changes over the period of 2000-2008 in four key ecosystem services was undertaken to determine the effects of the Chinese government's ecological rehabilitation initiatives implemented in 1999. These ecosystem services included water regulation, soil conservation, carbon sequestration and grain production. Significant conversions of farmland to woodland and grassland were found to have resulted in enhanced soil conservation and carbon sequestration, but decreased regional water yield under a warming and drying climate trend. The total grain production increased in spite of a significant decline in farmland acreage. These trends have been attributed to the strong socioeconomic incentives embedded in the ecological rehabilitation policy. Although some positive policy results have been achieved over the last decade, large uncertainty remains regarding long-term policy effects on the sustainability of ecological rehabilitation performance and ecosystem service enhancement. To reduce such uncertainty, this study calls for an adaptive management approach to regional ecological rehabilitation policy to be adopted, with a focus on the dynamic interactions between people and their environments in a changing world.

  4. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  5. The population ecology of contemporary adaptations: what empirical studies reveal about the conditions that promote adaptive evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reznick, D N; Ghalambor, C K

    2001-01-01

    Under what conditions might organisms be capable of rapid adaptive evolution? We reviewed published studies documenting contemporary adaptations in natural populations and looked for general patterns in the population ecological causes. We found that studies of contemporary adaptation fall into two general settings: (1) colonization of new environments that established newly adapted populations, and (2) local adaptations within the context of a heterogeneous environments and metapopulation structure. Local ecological processes associated with colonizations and introductions included exposure to: (1) a novel host or food resource; (2) a new biophysical environment; (3) a new predator community; and (4) a new coexisting competitor. The new environments that were colonized often had depauperate communities, sometimes because of anthropogenic disturbance. Local adaptation in heterogeneous environments was also often associated with recent anthropogenic changes, such as insecticide and herbicide resistance, or industrial melanism. A common feature of many examples is the combination of directional selection with at least a short-term opportunity for population growth. We suggest that such opportunities for population growth may be a key factor that promotes rapid evolution, since directional selection might otherwise be expected to cause population decline and create the potential for local extinction, which is an ever-present alternative to local adaptation. We also address the large discrepancy between the rate of evolution observed in contemporary studies and the apparent rate of evolution seen in the fossil record.

  6. Towards low energy consumption in Finland - An ecological change in economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sairinen, R.; Jaervilehto, P.

    1994-01-01

    Per capita energy consumption in Finland is twice the OECD average. Could Finland become a society with low energy consumption? What would that mean and why we need lower energy consumption and higher efficiency? These are questions dealt with in this article. The authors suggest that ecological goals could and should be considered in connection with the necessary changes in the economic structures resulting from the present economic depression. (orig.)

  7. Protein expression parallels thermal tolerance and ecologic changes in the diversification of a diving beetle species complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo-Galiana, A; Monge, M; Biron, D G; Canals, F; Ribera, I; Cieslak, A

    2016-01-01

    Physiological changes associated with evolutionary and ecological processes such as diversification, range expansion or speciation are still incompletely understood, especially for non-model species. Here we study differences in protein expression in response to temperature in a western Mediterranean diving beetle species complex, using two-dimensional differential gel electrophoresis with one Moroccan and one Iberian population each of Agabus ramblae and Agabus brunneus. We identified proteins with significant expression differences after thermal treatments comparing them with a reference EST library generated from one of the species of the complex (A. ramblae). The colonisation during the Middle Pleistocene of the Iberian peninsula by A. ramblae, where maximum temperatures and seasonality are lower than in the ancestral north African range, was associated with changes in the response to 27 °C in proteins related to energy metabolism. The subsequent speciation of A. brunneus from within populations of Iberian A. ramblae was associated with changes in the expression of several stress-related proteins (mostly chaperons) when exposed to 4 °C. These changes are in agreement with the known tolerance to lower temperatures of A. brunneus, which occupies a larger geographical area with a wider range of climatic conditions. In both cases, protein expression changes paralleled the evolution of thermal tolerance and the climatic conditions experienced by the species. However, although the colonisation of the Iberian peninsula did not result in morphological change, the speciation process of A. brunneus within Iberia involved genetic isolation and substantial differences in male genitalia and body size and shape.

  8. Community ecology in a changing environment: Perspectives from the Quaternary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Stephen T; Blois, Jessica L

    2015-04-21

    Community ecology and paleoecology are both concerned with the composition and structure of biotic assemblages but are largely disconnected. Community ecology focuses on existing species assemblages and recently has begun to integrate history (phylogeny and continental or intercontinental dispersal) to constrain community processes. This division has left a "missing middle": Ecological and environmental processes occurring on timescales from decades to millennia are not yet fully incorporated into community ecology. Quaternary paleoecology has a wealth of data documenting ecological dynamics at these timescales, and both fields can benefit from greater interaction and articulation. We discuss ecological insights revealed by Quaternary terrestrial records, suggest foundations for bridging between the disciplines, and identify topics where the disciplines can engage to mutual benefit.

  9. Terrestrial ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1977-01-01

    The main effort of the Terrestrial Ecology Division has been redirected to a comprehensive study of the Espiritu Santo Drainage Basin located in northeastern Puerto Rico. The general objective are to provide baseline ecological data for future environmental assessment studies at the local and regional levels, and to provide through an ecosystem approach data for the development of management alternatives for the wise utilization of energy, water, and land resources. The interrelationships among climate, vegetation, soils, and man, and their combined influence upon the hydrologic cycle will be described and evaluated. Environmental management involves planning and decision making, and both require an adequate data base. At present, little is known about the interworkings of a complete, integrated system such as a drainage basin. A literature survey of the main research areas confirmed that, although many individual ecologically oriented studies have been carried out in a tropical environment, few if any provide the data base required for environmental management. In view of rapidly changing socio-economic conditions and natural resources limitations, management urgently requires data from these systems: physical (climatological), biological, and cultural. This integrated drainage basin study has been designed to provide such data. The scope of this program covers the hydrologic cycle as it is affected by the interactions of the physical, biological, and cultural systems

  10. The European Water Framework Directive: How Ecological Assumptions Frame Technical and Social Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Steyaert

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The European Water Framework Directive (WFD is built upon significant cognitive developments in the field of ecological science but also encourages active involvement of all interested parties in its implementation. The coexistence in the same policy text of both substantive and procedural approaches to policy development stimulated this research as did our concerns about the implications of substantive ecological visions within the WFD policy for promoting, or not, social learning processes through participatory designs. We have used a qualitative analysis of the WFD text which shows the ecological dimension of the WFD dedicates its quasi-exclusive attention to a particular current of thought in ecosystems science focusing on ecosystems status and stability and considering human activities as disturbance factors. This particular worldview is juxtaposed within the WFD with a more utilitarian one that gives rise to many policy exemptions without changing the general underlying ecological model. We discuss these policy statements in the light of the tension between substantive and procedural policy developments. We argue that the dominant substantive approach of the WFD, comprising particular ecological assumptions built upon "compositionalism," seems to be contradictory with its espoused intention of involving the public. We discuss that current of thought in regard to more functionalist thinking and adaptive management, which offers greater opportunities for social learning, i.e., place a set of interdependent stakeholders in an intersubjective position in which they operate a "social construction" of water problems through the co-production of knowledge.

  11. [Remote sensing analysis of ecological change caused by construction of the new island city: Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, Fujian Province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Xiao-le; Lin, Zheng-feng; Tang, Fei

    2015-02-01

    Pingtan Island was officially established as the 'Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone of Fujian' in 2010, and it led to a surge of construction in the island city. Based on the Landsat-5 images for 2007 and the latest Landsat-8 images for 2013, this paper studied the ecological status, the temporal trends of the ecological changes and the reasons for those changes in Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone at its early stage of construction, by using the remote sensing of ecological index (RSEI). The results showed that as an ecologically fragile area, Pingtan Island had a moderate level of overall ecological status. In the early construction period (from 2007 to 2013), the ecological status of the island showed a downward trend, with a 14% drop of RSEI from 0.511 in 2007 down to 0.450 in 2013, and approximately 36.5% of the area of the island faced the degradation of ecological status, which mainly occurred in the central and southwestern parts of the island. The reason for the degradation was mainly due to the large-scale construction which further damaged the scarce vegetation on the island. Therefore, in order to curb the downward trend of the ecological quality of Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone, some effective ecological protection measures must be developed and implemented during the construction.

  12. Landscape ecological impact of climatic change some preliminary findings of the LICC Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boer, M.M.

    1991-01-01

    The main objectives of the LICC project are to address the potential effects of a future climatic change on (semi-) natural terrestrial ecosystems and landscapes in Europe; six case studies are covered: alpine regions, boreal and subartic regions, Mediterranean region, fluvial systems, wetlands and coastal dunes. Preliminary findings showed a serious lack in fundamental ecological knowledge. Assessment of potential effects involved changes in water and sediment fluxes, changes in the vegetation cover, species response, dispersal and migration in a fragmented landscape and modification of climate impacts by man

  13. Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

    2018-01-01

    Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

  14. Ecological function as a target for ecosystem-based management: Defining when change matters in decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) accounts for both direct and indirect drivers of ecological change for decision making. Just as with direct management of a resource, EBM requires a definition of management thresholds that define when change in function is sufficient to merit ma...

  15. Thinning of Tree Stands in the Arctic Zone of Krasnoyarsk Territory With Different Ecological Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Polyakov

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In 2001 six permanent sample plots (PSP were established in forest stands differing in degrees of damage by pollution from the Norilsk industrial region. In 2004 the second forest inventory was carried out at these PSP for evaluation of pollutant impacts on stand condition changes. During both inventory procedures the vigor state of every tree was visually categorized according to 6-points scale of «Forest health regulations in Russian Federation». The changeover of tree into fall was also taken into account. Two types of Markov’s models simulating thinning process in tree stands within different ecological conditions has been developed: 1 based on assessment for probability of tree survival during three years; 2 in terms of evaluation of matrix for probability on change of vigor state category in the same period. The reconstruction of tree mortality from 1979 after industrial complex «Nadezda» setting into operation was realized on the basis of probability estimation of dead standing trees conservation during three years observed. The forecast of situation was carried out up to 2030. Using logistic regression the probability of tree survival was established depending on four factors: degree of tree damage by pollutants, tree species, stand location in relief and tree age. The acquired results make it possible to single out an impact of pollutants to tree stands’ resistance from other factors. There was revealed the percent of tree fall, resulted by pollution. The evaluation scale of SO2 gas resistance of tree species was constructed: birch, spruce, larch. Larch showed the highest percent of fall because of pollution.

  16. Getting the message across: using ecological integrity to communicate with resource managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Brian R.; Tierney, Geraldine L.; Schweiger, E. William; Miller, Kathryn M.; Faber-Langendoen, Don; Grace, James B.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter describes and illustrates how concepts of ecological integrity, thresholds, and reference conditions can be integrated into a research and monitoring framework for natural resource management. Ecological integrity has been defined as a measure of the composition, structure, and function of an ecosystem in relation to the system’s natural or historical range of variation, as well as perturbations caused by natural or anthropogenic agents of change. Using ecological integrity to communicate with managers requires five steps, often implemented iteratively: (1) document the scale of the project and the current conceptual understanding and reference conditions of the ecosystem, (2) select appropriate metrics representing integrity, (3) define externally verified assessment points (metric values that signify an ecological change or need for management action) for the metrics, (4) collect data and calculate metric scores, and (5) summarize the status of the ecosystem using a variety of reporting methods. While we present the steps linearly for conceptual clarity, actual implementation of this approach may require addressing the steps in a different order or revisiting steps (such as metric selection) multiple times as data are collected. Knowledge of relevant ecological thresholds is important when metrics are selected, because thresholds identify where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Metrics with thresholds at or just beyond the limits of a system’s range of natural variability can be excellent, since moving beyond the normal range produces a marked change in their values. Alternatively, metrics with thresholds within but near the edge of the range of natural variability can serve as harbingers of potential change. Identifying thresholds also contributes to decisions about selection of assessment points. In particular, if there is a significant resistance to perturbation in an ecosystem, with threshold

  17. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Cuddington; M.-J. Fortin; L.R. Gerber; A. Hastings; A. Liebhold; M. OConnor; C. Ray

    2013-01-01

    Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered...

  18. Urbanization and stream ecology: Diverse mechanisms of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Allison; Capps, Krista A.; El-Sabaawi, Rana W.; Jones, Krista L.; Parr, Thomas B.; Ramirez, Alonso; Smith, Robert F.; Walsh, Christopher J.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2016-01-01

    The field of urban stream ecology has evolved rapidly in the last 3 decades, and it now includes natural scientists from numerous disciplines working with social scientists, landscape planners and designers, and land and water managers to address complex, socioecological problems that have manifested in urban landscapes. Over the last decade, stream ecologists have met 3 times at the Symposium on Urbanization and Stream Ecology (SUSE) to discuss current research, identify knowledge gaps, and promote future research collaborations. The papers in this special series on urbanization and stream ecology include both primary research studies and conceptual synthesis papers spurred from discussions at SUSE in May 2014. The themes of the meeting are reflected in the papers in this series emphasizing global differences in mechanisms and responses of stream ecosystems to urbanization and management solutions in diverse urban streams. Our hope is that this series will encourage continued interdisciplinary and collaborative research to increase the global understanding of urban stream ecology toward stream protection and restoration in urban landscapes.

  19. About assessment of carbon accumulation potential in the Kazakhstan soils under conditions of transition to ecological farming systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Popov, Yu.M.

    1997-01-01

    Processes of carbon oxidation of soil humus as well as possible adsorption of CO 2 from atmosphere and its bonding in soils in capacity of organic forms under condition of transition to ecological farming systems are considered. (author)

  20. A global Fine-Root Ecology Database to address below-ground challenges in plant ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iversen, Colleen M; McCormack, M Luke; Powell, A Shafer; Blackwood, Christopher B; Freschet, Grégoire T; Kattge, Jens; Roumet, Catherine; Stover, Daniel B; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Valverde-Barrantes, Oscar J; van Bodegom, Peter M; Violle, Cyrille

    2017-07-01

    Variation and tradeoffs within and among plant traits are increasingly being harnessed by empiricists and modelers to understand and predict ecosystem processes under changing environmental conditions. While fine roots play an important role in ecosystem functioning, fine-root traits are underrepresented in global trait databases. This has hindered efforts to analyze fine-root trait variation and link it with plant function and environmental conditions at a global scale. This Viewpoint addresses the need for a centralized fine-root trait database, and introduces the Fine-Root Ecology Database (FRED, http://roots.ornl.gov) which so far includes > 70 000 observations encompassing a broad range of root traits and also includes associated environmental data. FRED represents a critical step toward improving our understanding of below-ground plant ecology. For example, FRED facilitates the quantification of variation in fine-root traits across root orders, species, biomes, and environmental gradients while also providing a platform for assessments of covariation among root, leaf, and wood traits, the role of fine roots in ecosystem functioning, and the representation of fine roots in terrestrial biosphere models. Continued input of observations into FRED to fill gaps in trait coverage will improve our understanding of changes in fine-root traits across space and time. © 2017 UT-Battelle LLC. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  1. Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Jacob; Smith, Henrik G; Jonzén, Niclas

    2014-03-01

    and demographic trends in a changing climate. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

  2. CONDITIONS FOR IMPLEMENTING ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Winkler

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Changes are one of the most typical phenomena experienced by contemporary organizations and are an inherent element of their functioning. The change introduction process is complex and it is often accompanied by a phenomenon of resistance to change on the part of the employees in an organization, which is considered as the main cause of failure in the change implementation process. The purpose of the article is to discuss the basic conditions for implementing changes related both to their adequate defining and overcoming resistance to change.

  3. The Future of Urban Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elle, Morten

    1998-01-01

    This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won.......This article is discusing the basic conditions for a positive development of urban ecology in Denmark. A number of battles has to be won....

  4. Challenges in complementing data from ground-based sensors with satellite-derived products to measure ecological changes in relation to climate – lessons from temperate wetland-upland landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallant, Alisa L.; Sadinski, Walter J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.; Senay, Gabriel B.; Roth, Mark F.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing climate-related ecological changes across spatiotemporal scales meaningful to resource managers is challenging because no one method reliably produces essential data at both fine and broad scales. We recently confronted such challenges while integrating data from ground- and satellite-based sensors for an assessment of four wetland-rich study areas in the U.S. Midwest. We examined relations between temperature and precipitation and a set of variables measured on the ground at individual wetlands and another set measured via satellite sensors within surrounding 4 km2 landscape blocks. At the block scale, we used evapotranspiration and vegetation greenness as remotely sensed proxies for water availability and to estimate seasonal photosynthetic activity. We used sensors on the ground to coincidentally measure surface-water availability and amphibian calling activity at individual wetlands within blocks. Responses of landscape blocks generally paralleled changes in conditions measured on the ground, but the latter were more dynamic, and changes in ecological conditions on the ground that were critical for biota were not always apparent in measurements of related parameters in blocks. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of decisions and assumptions we made in applying the remotely sensed data for the assessment and the value of integrating observations across scales, sensors, and disciplines.

  5. A Database and Meta-Analysis of Ecological Responses to Flow in the South Atlantic Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamay, Ryan A [ORNL; Orth, Dr. Donald J [Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Davis, Dr, Mary [Southeastern Aquatic Resources Partnership; Kauffman, John [John Kauffman LLC.

    2013-01-01

    Generalized and quantitative relationships between flow and ecology are pivotal to developing environmental flow standards based on socially acceptable ecological conditions. Informing management at regional scales requires compiling sufficient hydrologic and ecological sources of information, identifying information gaps, and creating a framework for hypothesis development and testing. We compiled studies of empirical and theoretical relationships between flow and ecology in the South Atlantic region (SAR) of the United States to evaluate their utility for the development of environmental flow standards. Using database searches, internet searches, and agency contacts, we gathered 186 sources of information that provided a qualitative or quantitative relationship between flow and ecology within states encompassing the SAR. A total of 109 of the 186 sources had sufficient information to support quantitative analyses. Ecological responses to natural changes in flow magnitude, frequency, and duration were highly variable regardless of the direction and magnitude of changes in flow. In contrast, the majority of ecological responses to anthropogenic-induced flow alterations were negative. Fish consistently showed negative responses to anthropogenic flow alterations whereas other ecological groups showed somewhat variable responses (e.g. macroinvertebrates and riparian vegetation) and even positive responses (e.g. algae). Fish and organic matter had sufficient sample sizes to stratify natural flow-ecology relationships by specific flow categories (e.g. high flow, baseflows) or by region (e.g. coastal plain, uplands). After stratifying relationships, we found that significant correlations existed between changes in natural flow and ecological responses. In addition, a regression tree explained 57% of the variation in fish responses to anthropogenic and natural changes in flow. Because of some ambiguity in interpreting the directionality in ecological responses, we

  6. Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumming, Graeme S.; Allen, Craig R.; Ban, Natalie C.; Biggs, Duan; Biggs, Harry C.; Cumming, David H.M; De Vos, Alta; Epstein, Graham; Etienne, Michel; Maciejewski, Kristine; Mathevet, Raphael; Moore, Christine; Nenadovic, Mateja; Schoon, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

  7. Ecological Econophysics for Degrowth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Pueyo

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a synthesis of ecological economics with econophysics and other complexity approaches to economics. Arguably, the resulting “ecological econophysics” will be scientifically sounder than mainstream economics and much better suited to addressing a major challenge of our times: the development of democratically-based policies to reduce economic throughput to an environmentally sustainable level without triggering economic crises and without excluding part of the world’s population, i.e., to implement degrowth. Degrowth will need major structural changes, which leads us to question whether there are limits to the malleability of the economic system’s architecture. A fundamental limit will be encountered if, as suggested by the physics of complexity, long-lasting complex systems always occur midway between an ordered and a disordered state. There is much evidence that this hypothesis holds and that the current economic system satisfies this condition. However, this does not mean that the problems posed by this system should be unavoidable. Ecological econophysics gives clues to identifying alternative economic systems that would also function between order and chaos, but which would have radically different implications for environmental sustainability and social justice.

  8. Changes of communities of phytobenthos of Drevnica River - ecological condition assessment in space and time; Zmeny spolecenstev fytobentosu reky Drevnice - hodnoceni ekologickeho stavu v prostoru a case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safarova, M.; Uher, B.; Chattova, B. [Masarykova univerzita, Ustav botaniky a zoologie, 62100 Brno-Reckovice (Czech Republic)

    2013-04-16

    The study deals with a biological evaluation of water quality of the Drevnice River (Eastern Moravia) by a community of cyanobacteria and algae which are tied to the bottom substrate (e.g. mud, sand, stones). Phytobenthos, as this file of benthic autotrophic organisms is called, has a significant position among bioindicators of water quality for the ability to reflect environmental changes in a short time. The work consisted in monitoring changes in diversity of phytobenthos community and measurement of physicochemical parameters within one year. The aim was to find relations between the organisms and parameters and to determinate the current ecological status of the river. (authors)

  9. Millennial-scale vegetation changes in the tropical Andes using ecological grouping and ordination methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Urrego, D.H.; Hooghiemstra, H.; Rama-Corredor, O.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J.O.; Thompson, L.; Bush, M.B.; González-Carranza, Z.; Hanselman, J.; Valencia, B.; Velásquez-Ruiz, C.

    2016-01-01

    We compare eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the last 30 000 years, with particular emphasis on the Pleistocene to Holocene transition. We explore ecological grouping and downcore

  10. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-01-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  11. [An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qing; Lu, Cheng Peng; Zhou, Feng; Geng, Yong; Jing, Hong Shuang; Ren, Wan Xia; Xue, Bing

    2016-05-01

    Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological secu-rity by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm 2 to 3.07 hm 2 , while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm 2 to 21.96 hm 2 , which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm 2 to 2.98 hm 2 , while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm 2 to 35.87 hm 2 , the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.

  12. Responses of five Mediterranean halophytes to seasonal changes in environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Ricardo; Bautista, Inmaculada; Boscaiu, Monica; Lidón, Antonio; Wankhade, Shantanu; Sánchez, Héctor; Llinares, Josep; Vicente, Oscar

    2014-08-19

    In their natural habitats, different mechanisms may contribute to the tolerance of halophytes to high soil salinity and other abiotic stresses, but their relative contribution and ecological relevance, for a given species, remain largely unknown. We studied the responses to changing environmental conditions of five halophytes (Sarcocornia fruticosa, Inula crithmoides, Plantago crassifolia, Juncus maritimus and J. acutus) in a Mediterranean salt marsh, from summer 2009 to autumn 2010. A principal component analysis was used to correlate soil and climatic data with changes in the plants' contents of chemical markers associated with stress responses: ions, osmolytes, malondialdehyde (MDA, a marker of oxidative stress) and antioxidant systems. Stress tolerance in S. fruticosa, I. crithmoides and P. crassifolia (all succulent dicots) seemed to depend mostly on the transport of ions to aerial parts and the biosynthesis of specific osmolytes, whereas both Juncus species (monocots) were able to avoid accumulation of toxic ions, maintaining relatively high K(+)/Na(+) ratios. For the most salt-tolerant taxa (S. fruticosa and I. crithmoides), seasonal variations of Na(+), Cl(-), K(+) and glycine betaine, their major osmolyte, did not correlate with environmental parameters associated with salt or water stress, suggesting that their tolerance mechanisms are constitutive and relatively independent of external conditions, although they could be mediated by changes in the subcellular compartmentalization of ions and compatible osmolytes. Proline levels were too low in all the species to possibly have any effect on osmotic adjustment. However-except for P. crassifolia-proline may play a role in stress tolerance based on its 'osmoprotectant' functions. No correlation was observed between the degree of environmental stress and the levels of MDA or enzymatic and non-enzymatic antioxidants, indicating that the investigated halophytes are not subjected to oxidative stress under natural

  13. Climate and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Climate and Land-Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds: A Synthesis Report. This report provides a summary of climate change impacts to selected watersheds and recommendations for how to improv...

  14. Age at first reproduction and economic change in the context of differing kinship ecologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonetti, Donna L; Nath, Dilip C

    2009-01-01

    Kinship systems which tend to be based on ecologies of subsistence also assign differential power, privilege, and control to human connections that present pathways for manipulation of resource access and transfer. They can be used in this way to channel resource concentrations in women and hence their reproductive value. Thus, strategic female life course trade-offs and their timing are likely to be responsive to changing preferences for qualities in women as economic conditions change. Female life histories are studied in two ethnic groups with differing kinship systems in NE India where the competitive market economy is now being felt by most households. Patrilineal Bengali (599 women) practice patrilocal residence with village exogamy and matrilineal Khasi (656 women) follow matrilocal residence with village endogamy, both also normatively preferring three-generation extended households. These households have helpful senior women and significantly greater income. Age at first reproduction (AFR), achieved adult growth (height) and educational level (greater than 6 years or less) are examined in reproductive women, ages 16-50. In both groups, women residing normatively are older at AFR and taller than women residing nonnormatively. More education is also associated with senior women. Thus, normative residence may place a woman in the best reproductive location, and those with higher reproductive and productive potential are often chosen as households face competitive market conditions. In both groups residing in favorable reproductive locations is associated with a faster pace of fertility among women, as well as lower offspring mortality among Khasi, to compensate for a later start. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  15. Limnological state index (LSI) to evaluate ecological conditions of the Canal del Dique wetlands, Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinilla A, Gabriel A; Duarte Coy, Juliana; Vega Mora, Leonel

    2010-01-01

    Determining the ecological state or health of an ecosystem offers useful tools for its management and conservation. In Colombia, indexes of aquatic systems that combine in a single parameter the physical, chemical and biological variables have not been published, and the evaluation of water bodies' ecological state has been fragmentary or incomplete. In this work a limnological state index (LSI) for wetlands of the Canal del Dique, ecosystems under constant pressure by the human communities, is presented. For the construction of this multi-metric index, graphs of quality of the selected variables were constructed and values of importance were assigned to them. The theory of the multi-attributes was used to construct the LSI, which considers 12 variables. A principal components analysis was realized with these chosen parameters. A simplified version was designed (partial LSI - PLSI) in which four of the biological variables were excluded. Finally, an interpretation scale of the values obtained with these indices was built. The LSI and the PLSI were applied to wetlands of the Canal del Dique to establish their current ecological condition. Data show that the limnological state of most wetlands is acceptable, which suggests that these lentic ecosystems are within tolerable limits of function, although they are not exempt from deterioration processes.

  16. Estimating and mapping ecological processes influencing microbial community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegen, James C; Lin, Xueju; Fredrickson, Jim K; Konopka, Allan E

    2015-01-01

    Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i) selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii) dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii) ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.

  17. Estimating and Mapping Ecological Processes Influencing Microbial Community Assembly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James C Stegen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.

  18. ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE HUMAN -TRANSFORMED SYSTEMS OF THE IRPIN RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Madzhd

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to learn the interaction of natural and anthropogenic factors and their consequences in the system “Natural environment (Irpin river – human-transformed environment (Nyvka river”. Methods: To assess the structural and functional changes of hydroecosystems, transformed under technogenic impact, hydrochemical, toxicological and biological techniques, as well as the methods of mathematical statistics for experimental data processing and summarization of obtained results, were applied. Results: it is proposed to determine the dynamics of the biotic self-regulation mechanism change under impact of the modifying (anthropogenic factors, by the example of the two-component system – “Natural environment (Irpin River – environment, transformed under technogenic impact (Nyvka River, the right-hand tributary of the Irpin River”. It is proposed to extend additionally the opportunities of the ecological assessment due to application of the integrating index – the index of ecological conformity. Discussion: obtained results stipulate necessity of the further investigation of structural and functional patterns of the Irpin River ecosystem in space and time. Assessment of anthropogenic factors impact on hydroecosystem condition will make it possible to correct the nature guard activity concerning the improvement of the fishery object ecological condition and recreation essence of the Irpin River. Integration of the Nyvka and Irpin Rivers into a single system “Natural environment – environment, transformed under technogenic impact” will make it possible to obtain the objective assessment of technogenic changes in hydroecosystems. Implementation of the index of ecological conformity will make it possible to estimate completely the inner processes in the rivers.

  19. Ecosystem changes and life conditions in Colombia: Empiric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez, German

    2004-01-01

    We study the relationship among biophysical variables, focusing on land cover and, socioeconomic, demographic and violence variables. The method to do so is identifying significant correlations that show multiple interactions between ecosystems and society. Using these correlations several related hypotheses are tested. What is seen is that life conditions seem more favored in intermediate conditions of transformation of ecosystems; this is less due to poverty than to better economic conditions. Violence relates itself more whit the first than with the latter although evidence shows that little transformed places are violent. What is proposed here is that as the ecosystems are transformed the resources get scarce and people get poorer; with this the pressure over these few resources, the environmental damage and the migrations increases, sometimes stimulated by violence too. In sum, here we show the importance of incorporation, in a deeper way, of the ecological and environmental variables to the study and following of the general conditions of the nation

  20. Economic and Ecological Evaluation of Land Use Change: Evidence from Karelia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Sergeevich Strokov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Land use change and a shift in economic activity often bring to unpredictable consequences for local ecosystems. There is a necessity of making preliminary evaluation and analysis of comparing the different types of economic and ecological transformation, including cost and benefit analysis, not only for business and local population, but for the whole environment. We give an example of a particular animal husbandry farm in Karelia and show how potential change in economic specialization can be effective on a 10 years horizon. Among other land use types, we chose peat mining and wetland conservation. Each type of activities was complexly evaluated with different types of costs and benefits. In the paper, we use a method of land use change evaluation including the value of ecosystem services. The monetary values of ecosystem services are given with the respect to foreign analogues and taking into account local realities and prices. Our results have shown that the most beneficial for the society and the environment is wetland conservation, due to their berries picking service, which are highly appreciated on the market, and due to low costs for the third parties, since wetlands contain regulative and refinery services for local ecosystems. As a contrary peat mining is a profitable business, but pollutes the environment because of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. The current specialization for animal husbandry is neither an optimal solution because of low profitability of the chosen farm. The results of the research can be used for optimization in regional politics in the sphere of agriculture and environment economics in order to protect the ecological balance between human activities and nature.

  1. Effects of substrata and environmental conditions on ecological succession on historic shipwrecks

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Duarte, Manuel M.; Fernández-Montblanc, Tomás; Bethencourt, Manuel; Izquierdo, Alfredo

    2018-01-01

    An understanding of the interactions between biological, chemical and physical dynamics is especially important for the adequate conservation of the Underwater Cultural Heritage. However, while physical and chemical processes are relatively well-investigated, the biological communities associated with these habitats are poorly studied. We compared the sessile community developed on panels of different materials placed on two historical shipwrecks, the Fougueux and the Bucentaure, from the Battle of Trafalgar (October 1805). Six materials used at the construction of vessels at the 18th and 19th centuries were selected: copper, brass, cast iron, carbon steel, pine and oak. The sessile community developed on the panels was studied two and 15 months after their immersion at the water to determine the effects of materials and environmental conditions (sediments, waves, hydrodynamic conditions, temperature and salinity) on ecological succession and the possible implications at the conservation of historical shipwrecks. On the Fougueux, the environmental conditions more strongly influenced the biological succession than the material type, with pioneer colonisers dominating the communities in both sampling periods. On the Bucentaure, exposed to more stable environmental conditions, the sessile community showed differences between sampling periods and among materials at the end of the experiment. Under these more stable environmental conditions, the material type showed a higher influence on the sessile community. Species that produce calcareous concretions developed on metallic panels, but were absent on wood panels, where the shipworm Teredo navalis was more abundant. The relationship between environmental conditions, sessile organisms and material type can influence the conservation status of the archaeological sites.

  2. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  3. Cultural Change: The How and the Why.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varnum, Michael E W; Grossmann, Igor

    2017-11-01

    More than half a century of cross-cultural research has demonstrated group-level differences in psychological and behavioral phenomena, from values to attention to neural responses. However, cultures are not static, with several specific changes documented for cultural products, practices, and values. How and why do societies change? Here we juxtapose theory and insights from cultural evolution and social ecology. Evolutionary approaches enable an understanding of the how of cultural change, suggesting transmission mechanisms by which the contents of culture may change. Ecological approaches provide insights into the why of cultural change: They identify specific environmental pressures, which evoke shifts in psychology and thereby enable greater precision in predictions of specific cultural changes based on changes in ecological conditions. Complementary insights from the ecological and cultural evolutionary approaches can jointly clarify the process by which cultures change. We end by discussing the relevance of cultural change research for the contemporary societal shifts and by highlighting several critical challenges and future directions for the emerging field of cross-temporal research on culture and psychology.

  4. [Spatial and temporal changes of the ecological vulnerability in a serious soil erosion area, Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Xiong; Yu, Kun Yong; Liu, Jian; Yang, Su Ping; He, Ping; Deng, Yang Bo; Yu, Xin Yan; Chen, Zhang Hao

    2016-03-01

    Research on eco-environment vulnerability assessment contributes to the ecological environmental conservation and restoration. With Changting County as the study area, this paper selec-ted 7 indicators including slope, soil type, multi-year average precipitation, elevation deviate degree, normalized difference vegetation index, population density and land use type to build ecological vulnerability assessment system by using multicollinearity diagnostics analysis approach. The quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability in 1999, 2006 and 2014 was calculated by using entropy weight method and comprehensive index method. The changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of ecological vulnerability were also analyzed. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability level index (EVLI) decreased overall but increased locally from 1999 to 2014. The average EVLI values in 1999, 2006 and 2014 were 0.4533±0.1216, 0.4160±0.1111 and 0.3916±0.1139, respectively, indicating that the ecological vulnerability in Changting County was at the moderate grade. The EVLI decreased from 2.92 in 1999 to 2.38 in 2006 and 2.13 in 2014. The spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability was high inside but low outside. The high vulnerability areas were distributed mainly in Hetian Town and Tingzhou Town, where the slope was less than 15° and the altitude was lower than 500 m. During the study period, Sanzhou Town had the largest decreasing range of EVLI while Tingzhou Town had the lowest.

  5. Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkovich, E M; Cook, B I; McLauchlan, K K; Davies, T J

    2014-11-01

    Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology. Climate change has at once pressed ecologists to understand and predict ecological dynamics in non-stationary environments, while also challenged fundamental assumptions of many concepts, models and approaches. However, similarities between space and time, especially related issues of scaling, provide an outline for improving ecological models and forecasting of temporal dynamics, while the unique attributes of time, particularly its emphasis on events and its singular direction, highlight where new approaches are needed. We emphasise how a renewed, interdisciplinary focus on time would coalesce related concepts, help develop new theories and methods and guide further data collection. The next challenge will be to unite predictive frameworks from spatial and temporal ecology to build robust forecasts of when and where environmental change will pose the largest threats to species and ecosystems, as well as identifying the best opportunities for conservation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  6. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity ...

  7. Traditional Ecological Knowledge among transhumant pastoralists in Mediterranean Spain: learning for adaptation to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oteros Rozas, E.; Ontillera-Sánchez, R.; Sanosa, P.; Gómez-Baggethun, E.; Reyes-García, V.; González, J.A.

    2013-01-01

    Mobility is a millenary human strategy to deal with environmental change. An outstanding example of mobility is transhumance, an ancient pastoralist practice consisting of the seasonal migration of livestock between ecological regions following peaks in pasture productivity. The maintenance of

  8. Using ecological production functions to link ecological ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively little attention. Ecological production functions may be defined as usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ES, often including external influences on those processes. We identify key attributes of EPFs and discuss both actual and idealized examples of their use to inform decision making. Whenever possible, EPFs should estimate final, rather than intermediate, ES. Although various types of EPFs have been developed, we suggest that EPFs are more useful for decision making if they quantify ES outcomes, respond to ecosystem condition, respond to stressor levels or management scenarios, reflect ecological complexity, rely on data with broad coverage, have performed well previously, are practical to use, and are open and transparent. In an example using pesticides, we illustrate how EPFs with these attributes could enable the inclusion of ES in ecological risk assessment. The biggest challenges to ES inclusion are limited data sets that are easily adapted for use in modeling EPFs and generally poor understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver the ES. We conclude by advocating for the incorporation into E

  9. 23 CFR 635.109 - Standardized changed condition clauses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... OPERATIONS CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE Contract Procedures § 635.109 Standardized changed condition clauses. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, the following changed conditions contract... contract or if unknown physical conditions of an unusual nature, differing materially from those ordinarily...

  10. Impact of the Three Gorges project on ecological environment changes and snail distribution in Dongting Lake area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feiyue Li

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD is a remarkable, far-reaching project in China. This study was conducted to assess the impact of TGD on changes in the ecological environment, snail distribution and schistosomiasis transmission in Dongting Lake area.Hydrological data were collected from 12 monitoring sites in Hunan section of Yangtze River before and after TGD was established. Data on snail distribution and human schistosomiasis infection were also collected. Correlation analyses were performed to detect the significance of snail distribution to changes in ecological environmental factors and human schistosomiasis infection.A series of ecological environmental factors have changed in Dongting Lake area following the operation of TGD. Volume of annual runoff discharged into Dongting Lake declined by 20.85%. Annual sediment volume discharged into the lake and the mean lake sedimentation rate decreased by 73.9% and 32.2%, respectively. From 2003 to 2015, occurrence rate of frames with living snails and mean density of living snails decreased overall by 82.43% and 94.35%, respectively, with annual decrements being 13.49% and 21.29%. Moreover, human infection rate of schistosomiasis had decreased from 3.38% in 2003 to 0.44% in 2015, with a reduction of 86.98%. Correlation analyses showed that mean density of living snails was significantly associated with water level (r = 0.588, p<0.001, as well as the mean elevation range of the bottomland (r = 0.374, p = 0.025 and infection rate of schistosomiasis (r = 0.865, p<0.001.Ecological environmental changes caused by the TGD were associated with distribution of snails, and might further affect the transmission and prevalence of schistosomiasis. Risk of schistosomiasis transmission still exists in Dongting Lake area and long-term monitoring is required.

  11. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  12. The deep subterranean environment as a potential model system in ecological, biogeographical and evolutionary research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Sánchez-Fernández

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges in ecology, biogeography and evolution is to understand and predict how species may respond to environmental changes. Here we focus on the deep subterranean environment, a system that minimizes most of the typical uncertainties of studies on epigean (surface environments. Caves are relatively homogeneous habitats with nearly constant environmental conditions and simplified biological communities, allowing to control for biotic interactions. Thus, this particular system could be considered a natural habitat whose environmental conditions are similar to what can be reproduced in a laboratory, being an ideal model system for ecological, biogeographical and evolutionary studies. Subterranean species may potentially be used to assess the capability to persist in situ in a global change scenario, as they cannot accommodate to drastic changing conditions by behavioural plasticity, microhabitat use or by migrating to distant, more suitable areas, something frequent in epigean environments. In order to provide accurate predictions of the response of the subterranean biodiversity to climate change, we encourage evolutionary biologist, biogeographers and conservation biologist to work in this interesting ecosystem.

  13. Civic Ecology: A Postmodern Approach to Ecological Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, V. L.

    2013-12-01

    Human agency is transforming the planetary processes at unprecedented rates risking damaging essential life-support systems. Climate change, massive species extinction, land degradation, resources depletion, overpopulation, poverty and social injustice are all the result of human choices and non-sustainable ways of life. The survival of our modern economic systems depends upon insatiable consumption - a simple way of life no longer satisfies most people. Detached, instrumental rationality has created an ideal of liberalism based on individual pursuit of self-interest, leading the way into unprecedented material progress but bringing with it human alienation, social injustice, and ecological degradation. The purpose of this presentation is to introduce a community-based systems response to a growing sense that the interlocked social-ecological crisis is as much a problem of human thought and behavior as it is about identifying carrying capacities and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. This approach, referred to here as civic ecology, presents a new and important paradigm shift in sustainability practice that attempts to bring together and integrate ecological ideas and postmodern thinking. As such, it is as much a holistic, dynamic, and synergistic approach to ecological sustainability, as it is a philosophy of life and ethical perspective born of ecological understanding and insight. Civic ecology starts with the proposition that the key factor determining the health of the ecosphere is the behavior of human beings, and therefore many of the most important issues related to sustainability lie in the areas of human thought and culture. Thus, the quest for sustainability must include as a central concern the transformation of psychological and behavioral patterns that have become an imminent danger to planetary health. At the core of this understanding is a fundamental paradigm shift from the basic commitments of modern Western culture to its model of mechanism

  14. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of

  15. Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the northern Rockies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.

    2018-01-01

    Disturbances alter ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological and/or physical environment. Climate changes can alter the timing, magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance events, as well as the interactions of disturbances on a landscape, and climate change may already be affecting disturbance events and regimes. Interactions among disturbance regimes, such as the cooccurrence in space and time of bark beetle outbreaks and wildfires, can result in highly visible, rapidly occurring, and persistent changes in landscape composition and structure. Understanding how altered disturbance patterns and multiple disturbance interactions might result in novel and emergent landscape behaviors is critical for addressing climate change impacts and for designing land management strategies that are appropriate for future climates This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. We summarize five disturbance types present in the Northern Rockies that are sensitive to a changing climate--wildfires, bark beetles, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), other forest diseases, and nonnative plant invasions—and provide information that can help managers anticipate how, when, where, and why climate changes may alter the characteristics of disturbance regimes.

  16. Ecological changes in Coyotes (Canis latrans in response to the ice age megafaunal extinctions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julie A Meachen

    Full Text Available Coyotes (Canis latrans are an important species in human-inhabited areas. They control pests and are the apex predators in many ecosystems. Because of their importance it is imperative to understand how environmental change will affect this species. The end of the Pleistocene Ice Age brought with it many ecological changes for coyotes and here we statistically determine the changes that occurred in coyotes, when these changes occurred, and what the ecological consequences were of these changes. We examined the mandibles of three coyote populations: Pleistocene Rancho La Brean (13-29 Ka, earliest Holocene Rancho La Brean (8-10 Ka, and Recent from North America, using 2D geometric morphometrics to determine the morphological differences among them. Our results show that these three populations were morphologically distinct. The Pleistocene coyotes had an overall robust mandible with an increased shearing arcade and a decreased grinding arcade, adapted for carnivory and killing larger prey; whereas the modern populations show a gracile morphology with a tendency toward omnivory or grinding. The earliest Holocene populations are intermediate in morphology and smallest in size. These findings indicate that a niche shift occurred in coyotes at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary - from a hunter of large prey to a small prey/more omnivorous animal. Species interactions between Canis were the most likely cause of this transition. This study shows that the Pleistocene extinction event affected species that did not go extinct as well as those that did.

  17. Historical change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pont, Didier; Logez, M; Carrel, G; Rogers, C; Haidvogl, G

    Species distributions models (SDM) that rely on estimated relationships between present environmental conditions and species presence-absence are widely used to forecast changes of species distributions caused by global warming but far less to reconstruct historical assemblages. By compiling historical fish data from the turn to the middle of the twentieth century in a similar way for several European catchments (Rhône, Danube), and using already published SDMs based on current observations, we: (1) tested the predictive accuracy of such models for past climatic conditions, (2) compared observed and expected cumulated historical species occurrences at sub-catchment level, and (3) compared the annual variability in the predictions within one sub-catchment (Salzach) under a future climate scenario to the long-term variability of occurrences reconstructed during an extended historical period (1800-2000). We finally discuss the potential of these SDMs to define a "reference condition", the possibility of a shift in baseline condition in relation with anthropogenic pressures, and past and future climate variability. The results of this study clearly highlight the potential of SDM to reconstruct the past composition of European fish assemblages and to analyze the historical ecological status of European rivers. Assessing the uncertainty associated with species distribution projections is of primary importance before evaluating and comparing the past and future distribution of species within a given catchment.

  18. What is dental ecology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuozzo, Frank P; Sauther, Michelle L

    2012-06-01

    Teeth have long been used as indicators of primate ecology. Early work focused on the links between dental morphology, diet, and behavior, with more recent years emphasizing dental wear, microstructure, development, and biogeochemistry, to understand primate ecology. Our study of Lemur catta at the Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, Madagascar, has revealed an unusual pattern of severe tooth wear and frequent tooth loss, primarily the result of consuming a fallback food for which these primates are not dentally adapted. Interpreting these data was only possible by combining our areas of expertise (dental anatomy [FC] and primate ecology [MS]). By integrating theoretical, methodological, and applied aspects of both areas of research, we adopted the term "dental ecology"-defined as the broad study of how teeth respond to the environment. Specifically, we view dental ecology as an interpretive framework using teeth as a vehicle for understanding an organism's ecology, which builds upon earlier work, but creates a new synthesis of anatomy and ecology that is only possible with detailed knowledge of living primates. This framework includes (1) identifying patterns of dental pathology and tooth use-wear, within the context of feeding ecology, behavior, habitat variation, and anthropogenic change, (2) assessing ways in which dental development and biogeochemical signals can reflect habitat, environmental change and/or stress, and (3) how dental microstructure and macro-morphology are adapted to, and reflect feeding ecology. Here we define dental ecology, provide a short summary of the development of this perspective, and place our new work into this context. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Philosophy of ecology

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Bryson; Peacock, Kent A

    2011-01-01

    The most pressing problems facing humanity today - over-population, energy shortages, climate change, soil erosion, species extinctions, the risk of epidemic disease, the threat of warfare that could destroy all the hard-won gains of civilization, and even the recent fibrillations of the stock market - are all ecological or have a large ecological component. in this volume philosophers turn their attention to understanding the science of ecology and its huge implications for the human project. To get the application of ecology to policy or other practical concerns right, humanity needs a clear and disinterested philosophical understanding of ecology which can help identify the practical lessons of science. Conversely, the urgent practical demands humanity faces today cannot help but direct scientific and philosophical investigation toward the basis of those ecological challenges that threaten human survival. This book will help to fuel the timely renaissance of interest in philosophy of ecology that is now oc...

  20. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial......., precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  1. Gene expression profiling--Opening the black box of plant ecosystem responses to global change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leakey, A.D.B.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Bernard, S.M.; Markelz, R.J.C.; Ort, D.R.; Placella, S.A.P.; Rogers, A.; Smith, M.D.; Sudderth, E.A.; Weston, D.J.; Wullschleger, S.D.; Yuan, S.

    2009-11-01

    The use of genomic techniques to address ecological questions is emerging as the field of genomic ecology. Experimentation under environmentally realistic conditions to investigate the molecular response of plants to meaningful changes in growth conditions and ecological interactions is the defining feature of genomic ecology. Since the impact of global change factors on plant performance are mediated by direct effects at the molecular, biochemical and physiological scales, gene expression analysis promises important advances in understanding factors that have previously been consigned to the 'black box' of unknown mechanism. Various tools and approaches are available for assessing gene expression in model and non-model species as part of global change biology studies. Each approach has its own unique advantages and constraints. A first generation of genomic ecology studies in managed ecosystems and mesocosms have provided a testbed for the approach and have begun to reveal how the experimental design and data analysis of gene expression studies can be tailored for use in an ecological context.

  2. A paradigm analysis of ecological sustainability: The emerging polycentric climate change publics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taminiau, Job B.

    Climate change poses significant complications to the development model employed by modern societies. Using paradigm analysis, the dissertation explains why, after 21 years, policy failure haunts the field: a key impediment is the unquestioned assumption that policy must adhere to an economic optimality principle. This results in policy models which fail to uphold sustainability, justice, and equality due to an emphasis on economic growth, technology, and technical and bureaucratic expertise. Unable to build consensus among low- and high-carbon economies, and searching for what one economist has called an oxymoron -- "sustainable growth" (Daly, 1997) -- the policy process has foundered with its only international convention (the Kyoto Protocol) having lost relevance. In the midst of this policy failure, the dissertation offers and defends the premise that alternative strategies have emerged which signal the prospect of a paradigm shift to ecological sustainability -- a paradigm in which social change takes places through commons-based management and community authorship in the form of network governance and where sustainability serves as governor of growth -- something unavailable in an optimality-guided world. Especially, a strategy of polycentricity is discussed in detail in order to elucidate the potential for a paradigm shift. This discussion is followed by an evaluation of two innovative concepts -- the Sustainable Energy Utility and the Solar City -- that might fit the polycentricity strategy and bring forth transformative change. The dissertation finds considerable potential rests in these two concepts and argues the critical importance of further development of innovative approaches to implement the ecological sustainability paradigm.

  3. Alternate Directed Anthropogenic Shifts in Genotype Result in Different Ecological Outcomes in Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch Fry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosalind A Leggatt

    Full Text Available Domesticated and growth hormone (GH transgenic salmon provide an interesting model to compare effects of selected versus engineered phenotypic change on relative fitness in an ecological context. Phenotype in domestication is altered via polygenic selection of traits over multiple generations, whereas in transgenesis is altered by a single locus in one generation. These established and emerging technologies both result in elevated growth rates in culture, and are associated with similar secondary effects such as increased foraging, decreased predator avoidance, and similar endocrine and gene expression profiles. As such, there is concern regarding ecological consequences should fish that have been genetically altered escape to natural ecosystems. To determine if the type of genetic change influences fitness components associated with ecological success outside of the culture environments they were produced for, we examined growth and survival of domesticated, transgenic, and wild-type coho salmon fry under different environmental conditions. In simple conditions (i.e. culture with unlimited food, transgenic fish had the greatest growth, while in naturalized stream tanks (limited natural food, with or without predators domesticated fish had greatest growth and survival of the three fish groups. As such, the largest growth in culture conditions may not translate to the greatest ecological effects in natural conditions, and shifts in phenotype over multiple rather than one loci may result in greater success in a wider range of conditions. These differences may arise from very different historical opportunities of transgenic and domesticated strains to select for multiple growth pathways or counter-select against negative secondary changes arising from elevated capacity for growth, with domesticated fish potentially obtaining or retaining adaptive responses to multiple environmental conditions not yet acquired in recently generated transgenic

  4. Changing living conditions, life style and health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Curtis, Tine; Kvernmo, Siv; Bjerregaard, Peter

    2005-01-01

    . The aim of the paper is to illustrate the influence of environmental change on living conditions and life style and some of the mechanisms through which such changes affect physical and mental health. The interrelationship between environmental and societal change is illustrated by an example from a small......Human health is the result of the interaction of genetic, nutritional, socio-cultural, economic, physical infrastructure and ecosystem factors. All of the individual, social, cultural and socioeconomic factors are influenced by the environment they are embedded in and by changes in this environment...... community in Greenland, where changing environmental conditions have influenced fishing and employment opportunities to the extent that the size of the population has changed dramatically. The link between social change and health is shown with reference to studies on education, housing and occupation...

  5. Effects of Conceptual Change Text Based Instruction on Ecology, Attitudes toward Biology and Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çetin, Gülcan; Ertepinar, Hamide; Geban, Ömer

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the conceptual change text based instruction on ninth grade students' understanding of ecological concepts, and attitudes toward biology and environment. Participants were 82 ninth grade students in a public high school in the Northwestern Turkey. A treatment was employed over a five-week…

  6. Unsupervised Condition Change Detection In Large Diesel Engines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pontoppidan, Niels Henrik; Larsen, Jan

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a new method for unsupervised change detection which combines independent component modeling and probabilistic outlier etection. The method further provides a compact data representation, which is amenable to interpretation, i.e., the detected condition changes can be investig...... be investigated further. The method is successfully applied to unsupervised condition change detection in large diesel engines from acoustical emission sensor signal and compared to more classical techniques based on principal component analysis and Gaussian mixture models.......This paper presents a new method for unsupervised change detection which combines independent component modeling and probabilistic outlier etection. The method further provides a compact data representation, which is amenable to interpretation, i.e., the detected condition changes can...

  7. Climate change adaptation strategies for federal forests of the Pacific Northwest, USA: ecological, policy, and socio-economic perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas A. Spies; Thomas W. Giesen; Frederick J. Swanson; Jerry F. Franklin; Denise Lach; K. Norman. Johnson

    2010-01-01

    Conserving biological diversity in a changing climate poses major challenges for land managers and society. Effective adaptive strategies for dealing with climate change require a socioecological systems perspective. We highlight some of the projected ecological responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A and identify possible adaptive actions that...

  8. Lattice-work corridors for climate change: a conceptual framework for biodiversity conservation and social-ecological resilience in a tropical elevational gradient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia A. Townsend

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid climate change poses complex challenges for conservation, especially in tropical developing countries where biodiversity is high while financial and technical resources are limited. The complexity is heightened by uncertainty in predicted effects, both for ecological systems and human communities that depend heavily on natural resource extraction and use. Effective conservation plans and measures must be inexpensive, fast-acting, and able to increase the resilience of both the ecosystem and the social-ecological system. We present conservation practitioners with a framework that strategically integrates climate change planning into connectivity measures for tropical mountain ecosystems in Costa Rica. We propose a strategy for doubling the amount of habitat currently protected in riparian corridors using measures that are relatively low cost and fast-acting, and will employ and expand human capital. We argue that habitat connectivity must be enhanced along latitudinal gradients, but also within the same elevational bands, via a lattice-work corridor system. This is needed to facilitate range shifts for mobile species and evolutionary adaptation for less mobile species. We think that conservation measures within the elevational bands must include conservation-friendly land uses that improve current and future human livelihoods under dynamic conditions. Key components include community involvement, habitat priority-setting, forest landscape restoration, and environmental services payments. Our approach is fundamentally adaptive in that the conservation measures employed are informed by on-the-ground successes and failures and modified accordingly, but are relatively low risk and fast-acting. Our proposal, if implemented, would satisfy tenets of climate-smart conservation, improve the resilience of human and ecological communities, and be a model for other locations facing similar challenges.

  9. [Ecological carrying capacity and Chongming Island's ecological construction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaiyun; Zou, Chunjing; Kong, Zhenghong; Wang, Tianhou; Chen, Xiaoyong

    2005-12-01

    This paper overviewed the goals of Chongming Island's ecological construction and its background, analyzed the current eco-economic status and constraints of the Island, and put forward some scientific issues on its ecological construction. It was suggested that for the resources-saving and sustainable development of the Island, the researches on its ecological construction should be based on its ecological carrying capacity, fully take the regional characteristics into consideration, and refer the successful development modes at home and abroad. The carrying capacity study should ground on systemic and dynamic views, give a thorough evaluation of the Island's present carrying capacity, simulate its possible changes, and forecast its demands and risks. Operable countermeasures to promote the Island's carrying capacity should be worked out, new industry structure, population scale, and optimized distribution projects conforming to regional carrying capacity should be formulated, and effective ecological security alarming and control system should be built, with the aim of providing suggestions and strategic evidences for the decision-making of economic development and sustainable environmental resources use of the region.

  10. Secular trends on traditional ecological knowledge: An analysis of different domains of knowledge among Tsimane' men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-García, Victoria; Luz, Ana C; Gueze, Maximilien; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Macía, Manuel J; Orta-Martínez, Martí; Pino, Joan

    2013-10-01

    Empirical research provides contradictory evidence of the loss of traditional ecological knowledge across societies. Researchers have argued that culture, methodological differences, and site-specific conditions are responsible for such contradictory evidences. We advance and test a third explanation: the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge systems. Specifically, we test whether different domains of traditional ecological knowledge experience different secular changes and analyze trends in the context of other changes in livelihoods. We use data collected among 651 Tsimane' men (Bolivian Amazon). Our findings indicate that different domains of knowledge follow different secular trends. Among the domains of knowledge analyzed, medicinal and wild edible knowledge appear as the most vulnerable; canoe building and firewood knowledge seem to remain constant across generations; whereas house building knowledge seems to experience a slight secular increase. Our analysis reflects on the adaptive nature of traditional ecological knowledge, highlighting how changes in this knowledge system respond to the particular needs of a society in a given point of time.

  11. Adaptation to Climate Change in Panchase Mountain Ecological Regions of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shankar Adhikari

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rural mountain communities in developing countries are considered particularly vulnerable to environmental change, including climate change. Forests and agriculture provide numerous ecosystem goods and services (EGS to local communities and can help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. There is however poor documentation on the role of EGS in people’s livelihood and adaptation practices. This study in the rural Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of Nepal identifies practices being used to adapt to a changing environment through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. At the household level, livelihood diversification, changes in cropping patterns and farming practices, use of multipurpose plant species and income-generation activities were identified as adaptation strategies. Among major strategies at the community level were community forestry-based climate adaptation plans of action for forest and water resource management. Landscape-level adaptation strategies were large-scale collaborative projects and programs, such as Ecosystem-based Adaptation and Chitwan Annapurna Landscape conservation; which had implications at both the local and landscape-level. A proper blending and integration of adaptation strategies from individual households through to the community and to the landscape level is needed for implementing effective adaptation in the region.

  12. "My worries are rational, climate change is not": habitual ecological worrying is an adaptive response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bas Verplanken

    Full Text Available Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it ("habitual worriers are not crazy". In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology ("habitual worrying is part of a green identity", as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety ("habitual worrying can be a constructive response".

  13. "My worries are rational, climate change is not": habitual ecological worrying is an adaptive response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verplanken, Bas; Roy, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it ("habitual worriers are not crazy"). In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology ("habitual worrying is part of a green identity"), as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety ("habitual worrying can be a constructive response").

  14. Monitoring needs to perform ecological risk assessments in Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraeuchi, N.

    1999-07-01

    There is enormous pressure to come up with answers to questions asked by politicians and the public concerning the development of the environment and the potential risks society might be confronted with. Forests for example are expected to fulfill specific functions (e.g., timber production, protection of soil and water resources, recreation). As the environmental and social context itself is rapidly changing it is unknown what uses of a forest will appear in the future. The changing social and ecological context under which forestry operates is therefore calling for an appropriate management mode to deal with uncertainties. There is a need to act, monitor the results, learn from the past, adapt to new conditions through planning and to accept a philosophy of managing an ecosystem with the purpose of reducing potential future socio-ecological and environmental risk by understanding potential problems before they arise. Thus, ecosystem-based management must follow established ecological principles and appropriate guidelines must be derived from a thorough understanding of the origin of the risks potentially threatening the forests and the relevant ecosystem processes. In order to evaluate the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur as a result of exposure to one or more stressors long-term monitoring data, information, assumptions and uncertainties need to be systematically evaluated and analyzed. This is needed to understand and predict the relationships between stressors and ecological effects in a way that is useful for environmental decision making.

  15. Economic impacts of marine ecological change: Review and recent contributions of the VECTORS project on European marine waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groeneveld, Rolf A.; Bartelings, Heleen; Börger, Tobias; Bosello, Francesco; Buisman, Erik; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Eboli, Fabio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hamon, Katell G.; Hattam, Caroline; Loureiro, Maria; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.; Piwowarczyk, Joanna; Schasfoort, Femke E.; Simons, Sarah L.; Walker, Adam N.

    2018-02-01

    Marine ecological change is likely to have serious potential economic consequences for coastal economies all over the world. This article reviews the current literature on the economic impacts of marine ecological change, as well as a number of recent contributions to this literature carried out under the VECTORS project. We focus on three main types of change, namely invasive alien species; outbreak-forming species, such as jellyfish and toxic algae; and gradual changes in species distribution and productivity. The case studies available in the literature demonstrate that the impacts of invasions and outbreaks on fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism can potentially amount to several tens of millions of dollars each year in some regions. Moreover, stated preference studies suggest a substantial impact on coastal tourism and non-use values that is likely not visible in case studies of specific outbreak events. Climate-driven gradual changes in distribution and productivity of commercial fish stocks will have an impact on fisheries, although these impacts are likely to be overshadowed by much larger changes in prices of seafood and fuel.

  16. Art and artistic processes bridge knowledge systems about social-ecological change: An empirical examination with Inuit artists from Nunavut, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaitlyn J. Rathwell

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The role of art and artistic processes is one fruitful yet underexplored area of social-ecological resilience. Art and art making can nurture Indigenous knowledge and at the same time bridge knowledge across generations and cultures (e.g., Inuit and scientific. Experiences in two Inuit communities in northern Canada (Cape Dorset and Pangnirtung, Nunavut provide the context in which we empirically examine the mechanisms through which art and art making may bridge knowledge systems about social-ecological change. Art making and artworks create continuity between generations via symbols and skill development (e.g., seal skin stretching for a modern artistic mural and by creating mobile and adaptive boundary objects that function as a shared reference point to connect different social worlds. Our results indicate how art and artistic processes may bridge knowledge systems through six mechanisms, and in so doing contribute to social-ecological resilience during change and uncertainty. These mechanisms are (1 embedding knowledge, practice and belief into art objects; (2 sharing knowledge using the language of art; (3 sharing of art making skills; (4 art as a contributor to monitoring social-ecological change; (5 the role of art in fostering continuity through time; and (6 art as a site of knowledge coproduction.

  17. Prolonged Permian Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapham, Matthew E; Bottjer, David J

    2007-08-07

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous-Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian-Triassic switch in diversity.

  18. Prolonged Permian–Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clapham, Matthew E.; Bottjer, David J.

    2007-01-01

    The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous–Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian–Triassic switch in diversity. PMID:17664426

  19. Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Maass

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii developing analytical tools for integration; (iii promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting

  20. 2. status colloquium of the project 'Applied ecology' (PAOe). Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breitenstein, A.; Scholz, W.; Waitzmann, M.; Zelesny, H.

    1994-01-01

    The 'Applied ecology' programme sponsors research on major subjects concerning application-oriented bases of nature conservation and environmental protection in the following sectors: 1. nature and landscape (succession research, scientific accompanying of measures restoring the natural condition of a landscape, nature conservation concepts and development of ecological paradigms); 2. ecotoxicology (further development and standardization of biological indication methods within the framework of the ecotoxicological register of effects of Baden-Wuertemberg, design of exposure models for forcasting long-term changes in Baden-Wuertemberg); 3. risk assessments and risk evaluations in environmental protection (selected ecological balances and development of ecological evaluation criteria).- On March 22nd and 23rd, 1994, the second status colloquium of the project ''Applied Ecology (PAOe)'' was held at Ettlingen. During this annual event, the results of 39 research projects in the above-mentioned major subject areas were presented and debated by 600 experts from science, administration and economy. This volume sums up the results of the research and demonstrates, at the same time, the range of the research projects sponsored under this scheme. (orig./VHE) [de

  1. Impact of seasonal forcing on reactive ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesipa, Riccardo; Ridolfi, Luca

    2017-04-21

    Our focus is on the short-term dynamics of reactive ecological systems which are stable in the long term. In these systems, perturbations can exhibit significant transient amplifications before asymptotically decaying. This peculiar behavior has attracted increasing attention. However, reactive systems have so far been investigated assuming that external environmental characteristics remain constant, although environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, moisture, water availability, etc.) can undergo substantial changes due to seasonal cycles. In order to fill this gap, we propose applying the adjoint non-modal analysis to study the impact of seasonal variations of environmental conditions on reactive systems. This tool allows the transient dynamics of a perturbation affecting non-autonomous ecological systems to be described. To show the potential of this approach, a seasonally forced prey-predator model with a Holling II type functional response is studied as an exemplifying case. We demonstrate that seasonalities can greatly affect the transient dynamics of the system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The ecological importance of intraspecific variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Roches, Simone; Post, David M; Turley, Nash E; Bailey, Joseph K; Hendry, Andrew P; Kinnison, Michael T; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; Palkovacs, Eric P

    2018-01-01

    Human activity is causing wild populations to experience rapid trait change and local extirpation. The resulting effects on intraspecific variation could have substantial consequences for ecological processes and ecosystem services. Although researchers have long acknowledged that variation among species influences the surrounding environment, only recently has evidence accumulated for the ecological importance of variation within species. We conducted a meta-analysis comparing the ecological effects of variation within a species (intraspecific effects) with the effects of replacement or removal of that species (species effects). We evaluated direct and indirect ecological responses, including changes in abundance (or biomass), rates of ecological processes and changes in community composition. Our results show that intraspecific effects are often comparable to, and sometimes stronger than, species effects. Species effects tend to be larger for direct ecological responses (for example, through consumption), whereas intraspecific effects and species effects tend to be similar for indirect responses (for example, through trophic cascades). Intraspecific effects are especially strong when indirect interactions alter community composition. Our results summarize data from the first generation of studies examining the relative ecological effects of intraspecific variation. Our conclusions can help inform the design of future experiments and the formulation of strategies to quantify and conserve biodiversity.

  3. Radioecological conditions in the towns, where the status of radioactive contamination zones will change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ageeva, T.N.; Shapsheeva, T.P.; Zajtsev, A.A.; Makarevich, I.A.

    2015-01-01

    The article presents data of changes in the density of soil contamination in settlements where in 2015 change of the status of contaminated areas is possible. Article contains analysis of monitoring of radioactive contamination of food from private farms, the results of radio ecological inspection conducted in 2013-2014. (authors)

  4. Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd A. Crane

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social-ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled system. The fact that changes in the biophysical system can be culturally constructed in different ways means that the perception and pursuit of adaptive pathways can be highly variable. Furthermore, the adoption of biophysically resilient livelihoods can occur under conditions that are subjectively experienced as the radical transformation of cultural systems. The objectives of this work are to: (1 highlight the importance of understanding the place of culture within social-ecological systems, (2 explore the tensions between empirical and normative positions in the analysis of social-ecological resilience, and (3 suggest how empirical modeling of social-ecological systems can synergistically interact with normative aspects of livelihoods and lifeways.

  5. Aphid wing induction and ecological costs of alarm pheromone emission under field conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Hatano

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris, (Homoptera: Aphididae releases the volatile sesquiterpene (E-beta-farnesene (EBF when attacked by a predator, triggering escape responses in the aphid colony. Recently, it was shown that this alarm pheromone also mediates the production of the winged dispersal morph under laboratory conditions. The present work tested the wing-inducing effect of EBF under field conditions. Aphid colonies were exposed to two treatments (control and EBF and tested in two different environmental conditions (field and laboratory. As in previous experiments aphids produced higher proportion of winged morphs among their offspring when exposed to EBF in the laboratory but even under field conditions the proportion of winged offspring was higher after EBF application (6.84+/-0.98% compared to the hexane control (1.54+/-0.25%. In the field, the proportion of adult aphids found on the plant at the end of the experiment was lower in the EBF treatment (58.1+/-5.5% than in the control (66.9+/-4.6%, in contrast to the climate chamber test where the numbers of adult aphids found on the plant at the end of the experiment were, in both treatments, similar to the numbers put on the plant initially. Our results show that the role of EBF in aphid wing induction is also apparent under field conditions and they may indicate a potential cost of EBF emission. They also emphasize the importance of investigating the ecological role of induced defences under field conditions.

  6. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  7. Recent changes in Central European landscapes: An integrative ecological approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Těšitel, Jan; Kučera, Tomáš

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 24, č. 1 (2005), s. 3-6 ISSN 1335-342X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : integrative ecological approach * transdisciplinarity * interdisciplinarity * landscape ecology Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 0.085, year: 2005

  8. Ontogenic retinal changes in three ecologically distinct elopomorph fishes (Elopomorpha:Teleostei) correlate with light environment and behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Scott M; Loew, Ellis R; Grace, Michael S

    2015-01-01

    Unlike the mammalian retina, the teleost fish retina undergoes persistent neurogenesis from intrinsic stem cells. In marine teleosts, most cone photoreceptor genesis occurs early in the embryonic and larval stages, and rods are added primarily during and after metamorphosis. This study demonstrates a developmental paradigm in elopomorph fishes in which retinas are rod-dominated in larvae, but undergo periods of later cone genesis. Retinal characteristics were compared at different developmental stages among three ecologically distinct elopomorph fishes-ladyfish (Elops saurus), bonefish (Albula vulpes), and speckled worm eel (Myrophis punctatus). The objectives were to improve our understanding of (1) the developmental strategy in the elopomorph retina, (2) the functional architecture of the retina as it relates to ecology, and (3) how the light environment influences photoreceptor genesis. Photoreceptor morphologies, distributions, and spectral absorption were studied at larval, juvenile, and adult stages. Premetamorphic retinas in all three species are rod-dominated, but the retinas of these species undergo dramatic change over the course of development, resulting in juvenile and adult retinal characteristics that correlate closely with ecology. Adult E. saurus has high rod densities, grouped photoreceptors, a reflective tapetum, and longer-wavelength photopigments, supporting vision in turbid, low-light conditions. Adult A. vulpes has high cone densities, low rod densities, and shorter-wavelength photopigments, supporting diurnal vision in shallow, clear water. M. punctatus loses cones during metamorphosis, develops new cones after settlement, and maintains high rod but low cone densities, supporting primarily nocturnal vision. M. punctatus secondary cone genesis occurs rapidly throughout the retina, suggesting a novel mechanism of vertebrate photoreceptor genesis. Finally, in postsettlement M. punctatus, the continuous presence or absence of visible light

  9. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  10. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. "A shepherd has to invent": Poetic analysis of social-ecological change in the cultural landscape of the central Spanish Pyrenees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria E. Fernández-Giménez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-20th century, the Pyrenean pastoral social-ecological system (SES has undergone socioeconomic and demographic transformations leading to changes in grazing practices and a decline in the livestock industry. Land abandonment has contributed to an ecological transition from herbaceous vegetation cover to shrublands and forests, leading to a loss of ecosystem services, including biodiversity and forage. I interviewed 27 stockmen (ganaderos in two valleys of the central Pyrenees to document their traditional ecological knowledge and observations of environmental, social, economic, and cultural changes in the valleys. I used poetic analysis, a qualitative data analysis approach, to illustrate and analyze one ganadero's experience of social-ecological change. First, I created seven poems based on an interview transcript with this ganadero. Second, I analyzed the poetry I created, to see what new insights and understanding about system dynamics and the lived experience of SES change emerged from analysis of the transcript re-presented as poetry. Third, I compared key themes that emerged from this analysis with findings across the other 26 interviews. Fourth, I read the poems and presented the associated analysis to multiple audiences, to gauge their impact and effectiveness in communicating research findings. Finally, I synthesized across the themes raised in the seven poems. Poetic analysis revealed emotional and cultural dimensions of change, especially the importance of occupational and place identity, in the experience of the ganadero. The transcript re-presented as poetry portrayed the ganadero as an agent in creating and maintaining a cultural landscape and as both an adaptor and resister to SES change. Poetic analysis also uncovered telling contradictions, adaptive capacities, and barriers to adaptation in this SES that went unappreciated with conventional qualitative analysis approaches. This exploratory study illustrates the

  13. Ecological regime shifts and changes of lake ecosystem service in a shallow Yangtze lake (Taibai Lake, China) over the past 150 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Xu, M.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Shallow lakes provide a range of ecosystem services such as water supply, biodiversity, aquaculture, tourism, shipping and flood regulation. Over recent decades, many lakes have become severely deteriorated due to a coupled natural and human disturbance. Given the limited monitoring records, however, we still have little knowledge on how, when and why those lake experienced ecological status shifts, and how the lake ecosystem service changed. Paleolimnological techniques were widely used in understanding the historical environmental and ecological changes. Here, we chose a typical eutrophic shallow lake, Taibai Lake, and acquired geochemistry proxies, grain size, diatom, cladocera and chironomid from a 210Pb and 137Cs dated sediment core. Document records and monitoring data are also included as important marks of social and environmental change. A T-test based algorithm of STARS reveal at least two ecological shifts, respectively in the 1960s and the 1990s. The sudden shift in the 1960s is supposed to be influenced by a dam and sluice construction in the 1950s and another shift in the 1990s should be a critical transition due to the alternation of ecosystem structure for higher fishery production. Correspondingly, lake ecosystem service (LES) also experienced significant changes. Prior to 1930s, different types of LES kept relatively stable with low values. With the dam construction in the 1960s, the changed hydrological condition led to gradual increases in both regulation and provision service. However, with much effort on fishery and reclamation, the regulation service of the lake decreased, exhibiting a tradeoff among LES. After 1990s, with intense aquaculture, most types of LSE suffered a further decrease. The long-term records exhibited that ecosystem services in primary productivity and biodiversity maintenance increased (synergies) whereas services in water-purification and climate regulating decreased significantly (tradeoffs) since 1950s, when local

  14. THE CONCEPT OF REFERENCE CONDITION, REVISITED ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological assessments of aquatic ecosystems depend on the ability to compare current conditions against some expectation of how they could be in the absence of significant human disturbance. The concept of a ‘‘reference condition’’ is often used to describe the standard or benchmark against which current condition is compared. If assessments are to be conducted consistently, then a common understanding of the definitions and complications of reference condition is necessary. A 2006 paper (Stoddard et al., 2006, Ecological Applications 16:1267-1276) made an early attempt at codifying the reference condition concept; in this presentation we will revisit the points raised in that paper (and others) and examine how our thinking has changed in a little over 10 years.Among the issues to be discussed: (1) the “moving target” created when reference site data are used to set thresholds in large scale assessments; (2) natural vs. human disturbance and their effects on reference site distributions; (3) circularity and the use of biological data to assist in reference site identification; (4) using site-scale (in-stream or in-lake) measurements vs. landscape-level human activity to identify reference conditions. Ecological assessments of aquatic ecosystems depend on the ability to compare current conditions against some expectation of how they could be in the absence of significant human disturbance. The concept of a ‘‘reference condition’’ is often use

  15. The feasibility of ecological taxation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulus, A.T.G.

    1995-01-01

    The feasibility of ecological taxation in general and for the Netherlands in specific was analyzed within the context of one of the NRP research projects. The analysis shows that the feasibility of ecological taxes is generally determined by the tax design, the taxing authority by which these taxes are imposed and by the constitutional, institutional and fiscal structures into which they are embedded. In order to be feasible, the analysis shows that ecologically relevant taxes have to be imposed by a taxing authority which is clearly related to relevant ecological circumstances. Since normal taxing authorities tend to be political units which most of the times do not fit this description, institutional and constitutional changes are necessary to introduce and impose (additional) feasible types of ecological taxes in practice. Within the context of the Netherlands, the analysis shows that the currently changing intergovernmental and financial relationships in this country provide important starting points for municipalities, water authorities and provinces to introduce feasible types of such taxes. 225 refs

  16. Cultural or Ecological Sustainability? The Effect of Cultural Change on Sabal Palm Management Among the Lowland Maya of Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Martínez-Ballesté

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Sabal palm has been used for thatching the traditional Maya house for over 3000 yr. The great importance of this resource has promoted its management within home gardens. Although traditionally managed populations in home gardens are capable of ecological long-term persistence, the impact of cultural change on sustainable resource management is poorly understood. By means of interviews in 108 households, we obtained information about Sabal management practices, leaf demand, and sociocultural data. Density and size structure of the palm populations in the respective home gardens were also measured. By means of principal components analysis, the sociocultural data were summarized into a cultural change index, which was then statistically related to palm density, size structure, leaf demand, and management practices. Leaf demand along the cultural change gradient was estimated. Sabal populations were affected by the cultural change index. Palm density and the proportion of harvestable individuals were higher in the more traditional households. The number of management practices decreased, and the probability of felling adult palms increased with cultural change. As a result, the percentage of the total leaf demand satisfied by home garden production diminished from 118.2-69.4% as cultural change increased. Traditional practices seem oriented to increasing the palm availability. Seed sowing and the protection of seedlings and adults affect the life stages with the largest impact on the population growth rate, as measured through sensitivity analysis. This means that abandoning traditional practices and felling adults more frequently should reduce rapidly, which is consistent with the low palm density observed in less traditional households. The application of demographic models to Sabal tells us that traditional management warrants the persistence of the resource as long as the current conditions remain unchanged. In contrast, our data show that

  17. Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Bentz, Barbara J.; DeNitto, Gregg A.; Keane, Robert E.; Manning, Mary E.; Duncan, Jacob P.; Egan, Joel M.; Jackson, Marcus B.; Kegley, Sandra; Lockman, I. Blakey; Pearson, Dean E.; Powell, James A.; Shelly, Steve; Steed, Brytten E.; Zambino, Paul J.

    2018-01-01

    This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area, hereafter called the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. The term disturbance regime describes the general temporal and spatial characteristics of a disturbance agent - insect, disease, fire, weather, even human activity - and the effects of that agent on the landscape (table 8.1). More specifically, a disturbance regime is the cumulative effect of multiple disturbance events over space and time (Keane 2013). Disturbances disrupt an ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological environment, physical environment, or both (White and Pickett 1985). The resulting shifting mosaic of diverse ecological patterns and structures in turn affects future patterns of disturbance, in a reciprocal, linked relationship that shapes the fundamental character of landscapes and ecosystems. Disturbance creates and maintains biological diversity in the form of shifting, heterogeneous mosaics of diverse communities and habitats across a landscape (McKinney and Drake 1998), and biodiversity is generally highest when disturbance is neither too rare nor too frequent on the landscape (Grime 1973).

  18. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  19. The Feasibility of Using Video Journaling to Collect Ecological Momentary Assessment Data: Application to Health Behavior Change Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, Bridget F.; Bigham, Lauren E.; Bland, Helen W.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to evaluate the feasibility of an ecological momentary assessment (EMA) technique in a health behavior change intervention offered within university general health courses. A six-week health behavior change project was used with two groups: video journaling and traditional (pencil and paper) group. Research…

  20. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, João Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Bastos, Rita, E-mail: ritabastos@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Cortes, Rui, E-mail: rcortes@utad.pt [Fluvial Ecology Laboratory, CITAB – Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real (Portugal); Vicente, Joana, E-mail: jsvicente@fc.up.pt [Centro de Investigacão em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto (Portugal); Eitelberg, David, E-mail: d.a.eitelberg@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); Yu, Huirong, E-mail: h.yu@vu.nl [Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam (Netherlands); College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, 2 Yuanmingyuan W. Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100193 (China); and others

    2016-09-15

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  1. A stochastic dynamic model to assess land use change scenarios on the ecological status of fluvial water bodies under the Water Framework Directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, João Alexandre; Bastos, Rita; Cortes, Rui; Vicente, Joana; Eitelberg, David; Yu, Huirong

    2016-01-01

    This method development paper outlines an integrative stochastic dynamic methodology (StDM) framework to anticipate land use (LU) change effects on the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic surface waters under the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Tested in the Alto Minho River Basin District in North West Portugal, the model is an innovative step towards developing a decision-making and planning tool to assess the influence impacts such as LU change and climate change on these complex systems. Comprising a series of sequential steps, a Generalized Linear Model based, competing model Multi Model Inference (MMI) approach was used for parameter estimation to identify principal land use types (distal factors) driving change in biological and physicochemical support elements (proximal factors) in monitored water bodies. The framework integrated MMI constants and coefficients of selected LU categories in the StDM simulations and spatial projections to simulate the ecological status of monitored and non-monitored lotic waterbodies in the test area under 2 scenarios of (1) LU intensification and (2) LU extensification. A total of 100 simulations were run for a 50 year period for each scenario. Spatially dynamic projections of WFD metrics were obtained, taking into account the occurrence of stochastic wildfire events which typically occur in the study region and are exacerbated by LU change. A marked projected decline to “Moderate” ecological status for most waterbodies was detected under intensification but little change under extensification; only a few waterbodies fell to “moderate” status. The latter scenario describes the actual regional socio-economic situation of agricultural abandonment due to rural poverty, partly explaining the projected lack of change in ecological status. Based on the WFD “one out all out” criterion, projected downward shifts in ecological status were due to physicochemical support elements, namely increased

  2. Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

    2017-06-01

    The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

  3. PERSPECTIVES ON RANGELAND ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Heady, Harold F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper reviews changes in rangeland ecology and management in the U.S.A. over the last 65 years and speculates on future changes. Emphasis has shifted from livestock management to ecological and environmental concerns, hence "rangeland ecology." The term "range management" may have outlived its usefulness and may also be detrimental to our image. The vision that we have of ourselves is not the same as others have of us. Many members of the Society for Range Management (SRM) and most of ou...

  4. Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

    2015-04-01

    Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their

  5. “My Worries Are Rational, Climate Change Is Not”: Habitual Ecological Worrying Is an Adaptive Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verplanken, Bas; Roy, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Qualifications such as “global warming hysteria” and “energy policy schizophrenia” put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and pathological worry. Instead, habitual ecological worrying was associated with pro-environmental attitudes and behaviors, and with a personality structure characterized by imagination and an appreciation for new ideas. The study had sufficient statistical power and measures were valid and reliable. The results confirm that those who habitually worry about the ecology are not only lacking in any psychopathology, but demonstrate a constructive and adaptive response to a serious problem. In the public domain, these findings may contribute to a more rational and less emotional debate on climate change and to the prevention of stigmatization of people who are genuinely concerned about our habitat and are prepared to do something about it (“habitual worriers are not crazy”). In the academic arena this study may contribute to environmental psychology (“habitual worrying is part of a green identity”), as well as to the literature on worry and anxiety (“habitual worrying can be a constructive response”). PMID:24023958

  6. Building Resilience and Adaptation to Manage Arctic Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapin, F. Stuart III [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Hoel, Michael [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Dept. of Economics; Carpenter, Steven R. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI, (US). Center for Limnology] (and others)

    2006-06-15

    Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socio- ecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.

  7. Climate change and the EU Water Framework Directive: how to deal with indirect effects of changes in hydrology on water quality and ecology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heerdt, G N J Ter; Schep, S A; Janse, J H; Ouboter, M

    2007-01-01

    In order to set ecological goals and determine measures for the European Water Framework Directive, the effects of climate change on lake ecosystems should be estimated. It is thought that the complexity of lake ecosystems makes this effect inherently unpredictable. However, models that deal with this complexity are available and well calibrated and tested. In this study we use the ecosystem model PCLake to demonstrate how climate change might affect the ecological status of a shallow peaty lake in 2050. With the model PCLake, combined with a long-term water and nutrient balance, it is possible to describe adequately the present status of the lake. Simulations of future scenarios with increasing precipitation, evaporation and temperature, showed that climate change will lead to higher nutrient loadings. At the same time, it will lead to lower critical loadings. Together this might cause the lake to shift easier from a clear water to a turbid state. The amount of algae, expressed as the concentration Chl-a, will increase, as a consequence turbidity will increase. The outcome of this study; increasing stability of the turbid state of the lake, and thus the need for more drastic measures, is consistent with some earlier studies.

  8. Scaling environmental change through the community-level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Suding, K.N.; Lavorel, S.; Chapin III, F.S.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Diaz, S.; Garnier, E.; Goldberg, D.; Hooper, D.U.; Jackson, S.T.; Navas, M.-L.

    2008-01-01

    Predicting ecosystem responses to global change is a major challenge in ecology. A critical step in that challenge is to understand how changing environmental conditions influence processes across levels of ecological organization. While direct scaling from individual to ecosystem dynamics can lead

  9. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in the Southern and Western Highlands Sub-agro Ecological Zones of Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philbert M. Luhunga

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC fourth assessment report confirmed that climate change is unequivocal. It is coming to us faster with larger impacts and bigger risks than even most climate scientists expected as recently as a few years ago. One particular worry is the disastrous consequence to agriculture and food security sectors in many parts of the world, particularly in developing countries. Adaptation is the only option to reduce the impacts of climate change. However, before planning adaptation policies or strategies to climate change, it is important to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale to have scientific evidence that would guide the formulation of such policies or strategies. In this study the impacts of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea Mays production in the southern and western highlands sub-agro ecological zones of Tanzania are evaluated. High resolution climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment_Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs were used as input into the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT to simulate maize yield in the historical climate condition (1971–2000, present (2010–2039, mid (2040–2069, and end (2070–2099 centuries. Daily rainfall, solar radiations, minimum and maximum temperatures for the historical (1971–2000 climate condition and future climate projections (2010–2099 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to drive DSSAT. The impacts of climate change were assessed by comparing the average maize yields in historical climate condition against the average of simulated maize yields in the present, mid and end centuries under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of future maize yields estimates from DSSAT driven by individual RCMs under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 differs from one RCM to another and from one scenario to another. This highlight

  10. Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be used by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic

  11. Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site Ecological Monitoring Program 1995 annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-31

    The Ecological Monitoring Program (ECMP) was established at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) in September 1992. At that time, EcMP staff developed a Program Plan that was peer-reviewed by scientists from western universities before submittal to DOE RFFO in January 1993. The intent of the program is to measure several quantitative variables at different ecological scales in order to characterize the Rocky Flats ecosystem. This information is necessary to document ecological conditions at the Site in impacted and nonimpacted areas to determine if Site practices have had ecological impacts, either positive or negative. This information can be used by managers interested in future use scenarios and CERCLA activities. Others interested in impact analysis may also find the information useful. In addition, these measurements are entered into a database which will serve as a long-term information repository that will document long-term trends and potential future changes to the Site, both natural and anthropogenic.

  12. Ecological restoration of southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystems: A broad perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Craig D.; Savage, Melissa; Falk, Donald A.; Suckling, Kieran F.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Schulke, Todd; Stacey, Peter B.; Morgan, Penelope; Hoffman, Martos; Klingel, Jon T.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to promote a broad and flexible perspective on ecological restoration of Southwestern (U.S.) ponderosa pine forests. Ponderosa pine forests in the region have been radically altered by Euro-American land uses, including livestock grazing, fire suppression, and logging. Dense thickets of young trees now abound, old-growth and biodiversity have declined, and human and ecological communities are increasingly vulnerable to destructive crown fires. A consensus has emerged that it is urgent to restore more natural conditions to these forests. Efforts to restore Southwestern forests will require extensive projects employing varying combinations of young-tree thinning and reintroduction of low-intensity fires. Treatments must be flexible enough to recognize and accommodate: high levels of natural heterogeneity; dynamic ecosystems; wildlife and other biodiversity considerations; scientific uncertainty; and the challenges of on-the-ground implementation. Ecological restoration should reset ecosystem trends toward an envelope of “natural variability,” including the reestablishment of natural processes. Reconstructed historic reference conditions are best used as general guides rather than rigid restoration prescriptions. In the long term, the best way to align forest conditions to track ongoing climate changes is to restore fire, which naturally correlates with current climate. Some stands need substantial structural manipulation (thinning) before fire can safely be reintroduced. In other areas, such as large wilderness and roadless areas, fire alone may suffice as the main tool of ecological restoration, recreating the natural interaction of structure and process. Impatience, overreaction to crown fire risks, extractive economics, or hubris could lead to widespread application of highly intrusive treatments that may further damage forest ecosystems. Investments in research and monitoring of restoration treatments are essential to refine

  13. Driving Forces of Dynamic Changes in Soil Erosion in the Dahei Mountain Ecological Restoration Area of Northern China Based on GIS and RS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao; Niu, Xiang; Wang, Bing; Gao, Peng; Liu, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic change in soil erosion is an important focus of regional ecological restoration research. Here, the dynamic changes of soil erosion and its driving forces in the Dahei Mountain ecological restoration area of northern China were analyzed by LANDSAT TM remote sensing captured via geographic information system (GIS) technologies during three typical periods in 2004, 2008 and 2013. The results showed the following: (1) a decrease in intensive erosion and moderate erosion areas, as well as an increase in light erosion areas, was observed during two periods: one from 2004 to 2008 and the other from 2008 to 2013. (2) Between 2004 and 2008, the variation in the range of slight erosion was the largest (24.28%), followed by light erosion and intensive erosion; between 2008 and 2013, the variation in the range of intensive erosion area was the largest (9.89%), followed by slight erosion and moderate erosion. (3) Socioeconomic impact, accompanied by natural environmental factors, was the main driving force underlying the change in soil erosion within the ecological restoration area. In particular, the socioeconomic factors of per capita forest area and land reclamation rate, as well as the natural environmental factor of terrain slope, significantly influenced soil erosion changes within the ecological restoration area.

  14. ECOLOGICAL CONSCIOUSNESS AS ONE OF THE MAIN PRINCIPLES OF ECOLOGICAL POLICY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana O. Dushkova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the concept of ecological consciousness and analyzes main features of its development and implementation in the environmental policy in European practice on the example of Germany. The study of German experience is conditioned by the fact that among the other developed countries of the world Germany is the leading country in its active work carried out at all levels of the environmental policy. It is shown that actions aimed at the development of ecological culture and environmental education of the civil society in Germany are of the same priority as the use of renewable energy, development of green technologies, etc. The article provides an overview of the most important publications devoted to the phenomenon of ecological consciousness and highlights different approaches to this definition. Based on the German experience, it defines the prerequisites, main roots and sources of ecological consciousness creation and the ways in which it can be involved in the regional programs on sustainable development and ecological policy. It analyzes the main practical approaches to the implementation of the principles of ecological consciousness in Germany as well as the role of environmental organizations in the realization of environmentally oriented activities. Therefore, it presents the main results of socio-ecological surveys conducted in Germany and Russia and gives their comparative analysis. It indicates possible ways to transfer the German experience in the Russian context to improve the ecological awareness of the Russian society and to arise its ecological activity in addressing environmental issues.

  15. Social-ecological resilience and geomorphic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffin, Brian C.; Scown, Murray

    2018-03-01

    Governance of coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) and the underlying geomorphic processes that structure and alter Earth's surface is a key challenge for global sustainability amid the increasing uncertainty and change that defines the Anthropocene. Social-ecological resilience as a concept of scientific inquiry has contributed to new understandings of the dynamics of change in SESs, increasing our ability to contextualize and implement governance in these systems. Often, however, the importance of geomorphic change and geomorphological knowledge is somewhat missing from processes employed to inform SES governance. In this contribution, we argue that geomorphology and social-ecological resilience research should be integrated to improve governance toward sustainability. We first provide definitions of engineering, ecological, community, and social-ecological resilience and then explore the use of these concepts within and alongside geomorphology in the literature. While ecological studies often consider geomorphology as an important factor influencing the resilience of ecosystems and geomorphological studies often consider the engineering resilience of geomorphic systems of interest, very few studies define and employ a social-ecological resilience framing and explicitly link the concept to geomorphic systems. We present five key concepts-scale, feedbacks, state or regime, thresholds and regime shifts, and humans as part of the system-which we believe can help explicitly link important aspects of social-ecological resilience inquiry and geomorphological inquiry in order to strengthen the impact of both lines of research. Finally, we discuss how these five concepts might be used to integrate social-ecological resilience and geomorphology to better understand change in, and inform governance of, SESs. To compound these dynamics of resilience, complex systems are nested and cross-scale interactions from smaller and larger scales relative to the system of interest

  16. IMPRINT OF THE PAST: ECOLOGICAL HISTORY OF NEW BEDFORD HARBOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    To have an understanding of ecological conditions in a highly impacted area, it is important to look at how past events affected current conditions. Historical studies provide an understanding of how current ecological conditions arose, provide information to identify past pollut...

  17. Using body mass dynamics to examine long-term habitat shifts of arctic-molting geese: Evidence for ecological change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L.; Flint, Paul L.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Taylor, Eric J.; Bollinger, Karen S.

    2011-01-01

    From 1976 onward, molting brant geese (Branta bernicla) within the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area, Alaska, shifted from inland, freshwater lakes toward coastal wetlands. Two hypotheses explained this redistribution: (1) ecological change: redistribution of molting brant reflects improvements in coastal foraging habitats, which have undergone a succession toward salt-tolerant plants due to increased coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion as induced by climate change or (2) interspecific competition: greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) populations increased 12-fold at inland lakes, limiting food availability and forcing brant into coastal habitats. Both hypotheses presume that brant redistributions were driven by food availability; thus, body mass dynamics may provide insight into the relevance of these hypotheses. We compared body mass dynamics of molting brant across decades (1978, 1987–1992, 2005–2007) and, during 2005–2007, across habitats (coastal vs. inland). Brant lost body mass during molt in all three decades. At inland habitats, rates of mass loss progressively decreased by decade despite the increased number of greater white-fronted geese. These results do not support an interspecific competition hypothesis, instead suggesting that ecological change enhanced foraging habitats for brant. During 2005–2007, rates of mass loss did not vary by habitat. Thus, while habitats have improved from earlier decades, our results cannot distinguish between ecological changes at inland versus coastal habitats. However, we speculate that coastal forage quality has improved beyond that of inland habitats and that the body mass benefits of these higher quality foods are offset by the disproportionate number of brant now molting coastally.

  18. Ecological environment changes in Daya Bay, China, from 1982 to 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Youshao [Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301 (China)], E-mail: yswang@scsio.ac.cn; Lou Zhiping; Sun Cuici [Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Environmental Dynamics, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301 (China); Sun Song [Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071 (China)

    2008-11-15

    Data collected from 12 marine monitoring stations in Daya Bay from 1982 to 2004 reveal a substantial change in the ecological environment of this region. The average N/P ratio increased from 1.377 in 1985 to 49.09 in 2004. Algal species changed from 159 species of 46 genera in 1982 to 126 species of 44 genera in 2004. Major zooplankton species went from 46 species in 1983 to 36 species in 2004. The annual mean biomass of benthic animals was recorded at 123.10 g m{sup -2} in 1982 and 126.68 g m{sup -2} in 2004. Mean biomass and species of benthic animals near nuclear power plants ranged from 317.9 g m{sup -2} in 1991 to 45.24 g m{sup -2} in 2004 and from 250 species in 1991 to 177 species in 2004. A total of 12-19 species of hermatypic corals and 13 species of mangrove plants were observed in Daya Bay from 1984 to 2002.

  19. Ecological environment changes in Daya Bay, China, from 1982 to 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Youshao; Lou Zhiping; Sun Cuici; Sun Song

    2008-01-01

    Data collected from 12 marine monitoring stations in Daya Bay from 1982 to 2004 reveal a substantial change in the ecological environment of this region. The average N/P ratio increased from 1.377 in 1985 to 49.09 in 2004. Algal species changed from 159 species of 46 genera in 1982 to 126 species of 44 genera in 2004. Major zooplankton species went from 46 species in 1983 to 36 species in 2004. The annual mean biomass of benthic animals was recorded at 123.10 g m -2 in 1982 and 126.68 g m -2 in 2004. Mean biomass and species of benthic animals near nuclear power plants ranged from 317.9 g m -2 in 1991 to 45.24 g m -2 in 2004 and from 250 species in 1991 to 177 species in 2004. A total of 12-19 species of hermatypic corals and 13 species of mangrove plants were observed in Daya Bay from 1984 to 2002

  20. Ecological environment changes in Daya Bay, China, from 1982 to 2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, You-Shao; Lou, Zhi-Ping; Sun, Cui-Ci; Sun, Song

    2008-11-01

    Data collected from 12 marine monitoring stations in Daya Bay from 1982 to 2004 reveal a substantial change in the ecological environment of this region. The average N/P ratio increased from 1.377 in 1985 to 49.09 in 2004. Algal species changed from 159 species of 46 genera in 1982 to 126 species of 44 genera in 2004. Major zooplankton species went from 46 species in 1983 to 36 species in 2004. The annual mean biomass of benthic animals was recorded at 123.10 g m(-2) in 1982 and 126.68 g m(-2) in 2004. Mean biomass and species of benthic animals near nuclear power plants ranged from 317.9 g m(-2) in 1991 to 45.24 g m(-2) in 2004 and from 250 species in 1991 to 177 species in 2004. A total of 12-19 species of hermatypic corals and 13 species of mangrove plants were observed in Daya Bay from 1984 to 2002.

  1. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  2. [Impact of new trend of ecological environment changes on growth, reproduction and diffusion of Oncomelania hupensis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan, Xie; Li-Yong, Wen

    2016-03-07

    Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum , and the growth, reproduction and distribution of O.hupensis play an important role in schistosomiasis prevalence and transmission. This article reviews the influence of the new trend of ecological environment changes on the growth, reproduction and diffusion of the snails.

  3. Macrophyte growth module for the SWAT model – impact of climate change and management on stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte

    To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module...

  4. Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels...... and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate......-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how...

  5. Population Ecology (Organizational Ecology): An Experiential Exercise Demonstrating How Organizations in an Industry Are Born, Change, and Die

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacMillan, Karen; Komar, Jennifer

    2018-01-01

    This article describes a classroom exercise that is designed to help students understand the basic tenets of population ecology (also known as organizational ecology). The macro-level, longitudinal approach to understanding organizations can be difficult for students to conceptualize as it involves systems thinking. This exercise makes the theory…

  6. Wicked Social-Ecological Problems Forcing Unprecedented Change on the Latitudinal Margins of Coral Reefs: the Case of Southwest Madagascar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Henrich. Bruggemann

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available High-latitude coral reefs may be a refuge and area of reef expansion under climate change. As these locations are expected to become dryer and as livestock and agricultural yields decline, coastal populations may become increasingly dependent on marine resources. To evaluate this social-ecological conundrum, we examined the Grand Récif of Toliara (GRT, southwest Madagascar, which was intensively studied in the 1960s and has been highly degraded since the 1980s. We analyzed the social and ecological published and unpublished literature on this region and provide new data to assess the magnitude of the changes and evaluate the causes of reef degradation. Top-down controls were identified as the major drivers: human population growth and migrations, overfishing, and climate change, specifically decreased rainfall and rising temperature. Water quality has not changed since originally studied, and bottom-up control was ruled out. The identified network of social-ecological processes acting at different scales implies that decision makers will face complex problems that are linked to broader social, economic, and policy issues. This characterizes wicked problems, which are often dealt with by partial solutions that are exploratory and include inputs from various stakeholders along with information sharing, knowledge synthesis, and trust building. A hybrid approach based on classical fishery management options and preferences, along with monitoring, feedback and forums for searching solutions, could move the process of adaptation forward once an adaptive and appropriately scaled governance system is functioning. This approach has broad implications for resources management given the emerging climate change and multiple social and environmental stresses.

  7. Noospheric ecological imperative in culture of technocratic society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shantarin, V. D.; Bezzubtseva, N. A.; Zemenkov, Yu D.

    2018-05-01

    Technogenic, dynamic and mobile civilization has been in a state of systemic ecological and economic crisis for several decades. Numerous studies of its origins and causes show that the culture of a technocratic society associated with a quantitative increase in consumption has exhausted its capabilities and proved incapable of alleviating the sustainable future of humankind. Comprehension of this problem gives grounds to believe that its solvation is largely predetermined by the formation of a new culture, the core of which is the noospheric ecological imperative: only the thing that does not violate the natural balance is allowed. Life in the conditions of imposed restrictions is connected with the change of worldview attitudes of society, understanding the ideas of noospheregenesis and eco-centrism, the need for strict regulation, economy and conscious restriction of consumption.

  8. [Ecology and ecologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera, Luca

    2011-01-01

    Ecology (from the Greek words οιχοσ, "house" and λογια "study of") is the science of the "house", since it studies the environments where we live. There are three main ways of thinking about Ecology: Ecology as the study of interactions (between humans and the environment, between humans and living beings, between all living beings, etc.), Ecology as the statistical study of interactions, Ecology as a faith, or rather as a science that requires a metaphysical view. The history of Ecology shows us how this view was released by the label of "folk sense" to gain the epistemological status of science, a science that strives to be interdisciplinary. So, the aim of Ecology is to study, through a scientific methodology, the whole natural world, answering to very different questions, that arise from several fields (Economics, Biology, Sociology, Philosophy, etc.). The plurality of issues that Ecology has to face led, during the Twentieth-century, to branch off in several different "ecologies". As a result, each one of these new approaches chose as its own field a more limited and specific portion of reality.

  9. Social-ecological innovation in remote mountain areas: Adaptive responses of forest-dependent communities to the challenges of a changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnykovych, Mariana; Nijnik, Maria; Soloviy, Ihor; Nijnik, Albert; Sarkki, Simo; Bihun, Yurij

    2018-02-01

    -being of people and nature in coupled social-ecological systems, in the conditions of a changing world. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence N. Hudson; Joseph Wunderle M.; And Others

    2016-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to...

  11. Changing NPP consumption patterns in the Holocene: from Megafauna "liberated" NPP to "ecological bankruptcy"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doughty, C.

    2015-12-01

    There have been vast changes in how net primary production (NPP) is consumed by humans and animals during the Holocene beginning with a potential increase in availability following the Pleistocene megafauna extinctions. This was followed by the development of agriculture which began to gradually restrict availability of NPP for wild animals. Finally, humans entered the industrial era using non-plant based energies to power societies. Here I ask the following questions about these three energy transitions: 1. How much NPP energy may have become available following the megafauna extinctions? 2. When did humans, through agriculture and domestic animals, consume more NPP than wild mammals in each country? 3. When did humans and wild mammals use more energy than was available in total NPP in each country? To answer this last question I calculate NPP consumed by wild animals, crops, livestock, and energy use (all converted to units of MJ) and compare this with the total potential NPP (also in MJ) for each country. We develop the term "ecological bankruptcy" to refer to the level of consumption where not all energy needs can be met by the country's NPP. Currently, 82 countries and a net population of 5.4 billion are in the state of ecologically bankruptcy, crossing this threshold at various times over the past 40 years. By contrast, only 52 countries with a net population of 1.2 billion remain ecologically solvent. Overall, the Holocene has seen remarkable changes in consumption patterns of NPP, passing through three distinct phases. Humans began in a world where there was 1.6-4.1% unclaimed NPP to consume. From 1700-1850, humans began to consume more than wild animals (globally averaged). At present, >82% of people live in countries where not even all available plant matter could satisfy our energy demands.

  12. Determination of significance in Ecological Impact Assessment: Past change, current practice and future improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Briggs, Sam; Hudson, Malcolm D., E-mail: mdh@soton.ac.uk

    2013-01-15

    Ecological Impact Assessment (EcIA) is an important tool for conservation and achieving sustainable development. 'Significant' impacts are those which disturb or alter the environment to a measurable degree. Significance is a crucial part of EcIA, our understanding of the concept in practice is vital if it is to be effective as a tool. This study employed three methods to assess how the determination of significance has changed through time, what current practice is, and what would lead to future improvements. Three data streams were collected: interviews with expert stakeholders, a review of 30 Environmental Statements and a broad-scale survey of the United Kingdom Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management (IEEM) members. The approach taken in the determination of significance has become more standardised and subjectivity has become constrained through a transparent framework. This has largely been driven by a set of guidelines produced by IEEM in 2006. The significance of impacts is now more clearly justified and the accuracy with which it is determined has improved. However, there are limitations to accuracy and effectiveness of the determination of significance. These are the quality of baseline survey data, our scientific understanding of ecological processes and the lack of monitoring and feedback of results. These in turn are restricted by the limited resources available in consultancies. The most notable recommendations for future practice are the implementation of monitoring and the publication of feedback, the creation of a central database for baseline survey data and the streamlining of guidance. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The assessment of significance has changed markedly through time. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The IEEM guidelines have driven a standardisation of practice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Currently limited by quality of baseline data and scientific understanding. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Monitoring

  13. Enlightening Butterfly Conservation Efforts: The Importance of Natural Lighting for Butterfly Behavioral Ecology and Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Light is arguably the most important abiotic factor for living organisms. Organisms evolved under specific lighting conditions and their behavior, physiology, and ecology are inexorably linked to light. Understanding light effects on biology could not be more important as present anthropogenic effects are greatly changing the light environments in which animals exist. The two biggest anthropogenic contributors changing light environments are: (1) anthropogenic lighting at night (i.e., light pollution); and (2) deforestation and the built environment. I highlight light importance for butterfly behavior, physiology, and ecology and stress the importance of including light as a conservation factor for conserving butterfly biodiversity. This review focuses on four parts: (1) Introducing the nature and extent of light. (2) Visual and non-visual light reception in butterflies. (3) Implications of unnatural lighting for butterflies across several different behavioral and ecological contexts. (4). Future directions for quantifying the threat of unnatural lighting on butterflies and simple approaches to mitigate unnatural light impacts on butterflies. I urge future research to include light as a factor and end with the hopeful thought that controlling many unnatural light conditions is simply done by flipping a switch. PMID:29439549

  14. Enlightening Butterfly Conservation Efforts: The Importance of Natural Lighting for Butterfly Behavioral Ecology and Conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett M Seymoure

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Light is arguably the most important abiotic factor for living organisms. Organisms evolved under specific lighting conditions and their behavior, physiology, and ecology are inexorably linked to light. Understanding light effects on biology could not be more important as present anthropogenic effects are greatly changing the light environments in which animals exist. The two biggest anthropogenic contributors changing light environments are: (1 anthropogenic lighting at night (i.e., light pollution; and (2 deforestation and the built environment. I highlight light importance for butterfly behavior, physiology, and ecology and stress the importance of including light as a conservation factor for conserving butterfly biodiversity. This review focuses on four parts: (1 Introducing the nature and extent of light. (2 Visual and non-visual light reception in butterflies. (3 Implications of unnatural lighting for butterflies across several different behavioral and ecological contexts. (4. Future directions for quantifying the threat of unnatural lighting on butterflies and simple approaches to mitigate unnatural light impacts on butterflies. I urge future research to include light as a factor and end with the hopeful thought that controlling many unnatural light conditions is simply done by flipping a switch.

  15. Transient ecotone response to climatic change - some conceptual and modelling approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neilson, R.P. (Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR (United States))

    1993-08-01

    Accurate prediction of the ecological impacts of climatic change is a pressing challenge to the science of ecology. The current state of the art for broad-scale estimates of change in biomes and ecotones between biomes is limited to equilibrium estimates of ecological change under some future equilibrium climate. Uncertainties in these estimates abound Ecotones between biomes have been suggested as sensitive areas of change that could be effectively modelled and monitored for future change. Ecotones are also important in influencing local and regional biodiversity patterns and ecological flows. The ecological processes that could affect change at ecotones and within biomes are discussed; they include internal ecosystem processes, and external abiotic processes. Drought followed by infestations and fire appears to be the most likely process that could mediate ecological change under a rapidly changing climate. The impacts would be apparent across all biomes. Specific predictions about the dynamics of ecotones can be made qualitatively. Under current conditions, the size of homogeneous patches is expected to be small at ecotones, but to enlarge with distance from the ecotone. Directional climatic change should promote a coalescence of patches on one side of the ecotone and increased fragmentation on the other side. Ecotones should begin to blur as viewed from a satellite only to re-form at some later date in a new location.

  16. Facing climate change in forests and fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

    2014-01-01

    As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound - from shifting species' ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

  17. Climate and streamflow trends in the Columbia River Basin: evidence for ecological and engineering resilience to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.L. Hatcher; J.A. Jones

    2013-01-01

    Large river basins transfer the water signal from the atmosphere to the ocean. Climate change is widely expected to alter streamflow and potentially disrupt water management systems. We tested the ecological resilience—capacity of headwater ecosystems to sustain streamflow under climate change—and the engineering resilience—capacity of dam and reservoir management to...

  18. Statistical ecology comes of age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

  19. Statistical ecology comes of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-12-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

  20. Evidence for Ecological Flexibility in the Cosmopolitan Genus Curtobacterium

    OpenAIRE

    Chase, Alexander B.; Arevalo, Philip; Polz, Martin F.; Berlemont, Renaud; Martiny, Jennifer B. H.

    2016-01-01

    Assigning ecological roles to bacterial taxa remains imperative to understanding how microbial communities will respond to changing environmental conditions. Here we analyze the genus Curtobacterium as it was found to be the most abundant taxon in a leaf litter community in southern California. Traditional characterization of this taxon predominantly associates it as the causal pathogen in the agricultural crops of dry beans. Therefore, we seek to conduct a broad investigation into this genus...

  1. Power supply in future: ecological aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hustedt, M.

    2000-01-01

    The most important prerequisites for an ecological supply of energy in the future is the opting out of nuclear energy and the completion of the second and third phase of the socio-ecological tax reform. As a part of our energy will continue to be generated on the basis of fossil fuels in the foreseeable future, it is essential that a radical change takes place in the efficiency of fossil energy engineering. In addition to this, any possible energy-saving potential must be exploited; this includes the new energy-saving law, promoting the modernisation of old buildings and modern energy management (heat insulation, heating engineering, warm water heating etc.). For an ecological power supply the share of renewable energies must be increased to form a major pillar of our power supply. The '100,000-roof' programme of the German federal government and the development programme for near-market renewable energy sources form part of this approach. Energy research should shift its orientation and accelerate the conversion of our power supply: priority should be given to developing energy-saving technologies and renewable energy. Supporting municipalities and public utilities is especially important. This means revising the basic conditions of energy laws so that they assist public utilities to face competition as power utilities. (orig.) [de

  2. Pathways from marine protected area design and management to ecological success

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray A. Rudd

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Using an international dataset compiled from 121 sites in 87 marine protected areas (MPAs globally (Edgar et al., 2014, I assessed how various configurations of design and management conditions affected MPA ecological performance, measured in terms of fish species richness and biomass. The set-theoretic approach used Boolean algebra to identify pathways that combined up to five ‘NEOLI’ (No-take, Enforced, Old, Large, Isolated conditions and that were sufficient for achieving positive, and negative, ecological outcomes. Ecological isolation was overwhelming the most important condition affecting ecological outcomes but Old and Large were also conditions important for achieving high levels of biomass among large fishes (jacks, groupers, sharks. Solution coverage was uniformly low (0.50 for negative results (i.e., the absence of high biomass among the large commercially-exploited fishes, implying asymmetries in how MPAs may rebuild populations on the one hand and, on the other, protect against further decline. The results revealed complex interactions involving MPA design, implementation, and management conditions that affect MPA ecological performance. In general terms, the presence of no-take regulations and effective enforcement were insufficient to ensure MPA effectiveness on their own. Given the central role of ecological isolation in securing ecological benefits from MPAs, site selection in the design phase appears critical for success.

  3. Ecological macroeconomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2013-01-01

    by a more theoretical debate and increased interaction between the heterodox schools of ecological economics and post-Keynesian economics. In addition, both the degrowth community and the research community organized around sustainable transitions of socio-technical systems have contributed to discussions...... on how to reconcile environmental and social concerns. Based on this broad variety of pieces in a jigsaw puzzle, a new ecological macroeconomics is emerging, but the contours are still vague. This chapter seeks to outline some of this topography and to add a few pieces of its own by highlighting the need...... to shift resources from consumption to investment and describing the role of consumer-citizens in such a change. The chapter starts by identifying the problems and challenges for an ecological macroeconomics. The next section outlines some of the shortcomings of traditional macroeconomics...

  4. Some directions in ecological theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendall, Bruce E

    2015-12-01

    The role of theory within ecology has changed dramatically in recent decades. Once primarily a source of qualitative conceptual framing, ecological theories and models are now often used to develop quantitative explanations of empirical patterns and to project future dynamics of specific ecological systems. In this essay, I recount my own experience of this transformation, in which accelerating computing power and the widespread incorporation of stochastic processes into ecological theory combined to create some novel integration of mathematical and statistical models. This stronger integration drives theory towards incorporating more biological realism, and I explore ways in which we can grapple with that realism to generate new general theoretical insights. This enhanced realism, in turn, may lead to frameworks for projecting ecological responses to anthropogenic change, which is, arguably, the central challenge for 21st-century ecology. In an era of big data and synthesis, ecologists are increasingly seeking to infer causality from observational data; but conventional biometry provides few tools for this project. This is a realm where theorists can and should play an important role, and I close by pointing towards some analytical and philosophical approaches developed in our sister discipline of economics that address this very problem. While I make no grand prognostications about the likely discoveries of ecological theory over the coming century, you will find in this essay a scattering of more or less far-fetched ideas that I, at least, think are interesting and (possibly) fruitful directions for our field.

  5. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  6. The ecology of primate material culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koops, Kathelijne; Visalberghi, Elisabetta; van Schaik, Carel P

    2014-11-01

    Tool use in extant primates may inform our understanding of the conditions that favoured the expansion of hominin technology and material culture. The 'method of exclusion' has, arguably, confirmed the presence of culture in wild animal populations by excluding ecological and genetic explanations for geographical variation in behaviour. However, this method neglects ecological influences on culture, which, ironically, may be critical for understanding technology and thus material culture. We review all the current evidence for the role of ecology in shaping material culture in three habitual tool-using non-human primates: chimpanzees, orangutans and capuchin monkeys. We show that environmental opportunity, rather than necessity, is the main driver. We argue that a better understanding of primate technology requires explicit investigation of the role of ecological conditions. We propose a model in which three sets of factors, namely environment, sociality and cognition, influence invention, transmission and retention of material culture. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Applying historical ecology to natural resource management institutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petty, Aaron M.; Isendahl, Christian; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the linkages between social and ecological systems is key to developing sustainable natural resource management (NRM) institutions. Frequently, however, insufficient attention is paid to the historical development of NRM institutions. Instead, discussion largely focuses on models...... of economic efficiency at the expense of the cultural, historical, and ecological contexts within which institutions develop. Here we use the research program of historical ecology to explore the development, maintenance, and change of two contemporary fire management institutions in northern Australia...... and Colorado, USA, to demonstrate how social institutions and ecological systems change and resist change over time and how institutions interact across scales to negotiate contrasting goals and motivations. We argue that these NRM institutions are not strictly speaking evolutionary or adaptive...

  8. Fear conditioning-related changes in cerebellar Purkinje cell activities in goldfish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoshida Masayuki

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fear conditioning-induced changes in cerebellar Purkinje cell responses to a conditioned stimulus have been reported in rabbits. It has been suggested that synaptic long-term potentiation and the resulting increases in firing rates of Purkinje cells are related to the acquisition of conditioned fear in mammals. However, Purkinje cell activities during acquisition of conditioned fear have not been analysed, and changes in Purkinje cell activities throughout the development of conditioned fear have not yet been investigated. In the present study, we tracked Purkinje cell activities throughout a fear conditioning procedure and aimed to elucidate further how cerebellar circuits function during the acquisition and expression of conditioned fear. Methods Activities of single Purkinje cells in the corpus cerebelli were tracked throughout a classical fear conditioning procedure in goldfish. A delayed conditioning paradigm was used with cardiac deceleration as the conditioned response. Conditioning-related changes of Purkinje cell responses to a conditioned stimulus and unconditioned stimulus were examined. Results The majority of Purkinje cells sampled responded to the conditioned stimulus by either increasing or decreasing their firing rates before training. Although there were various types of conditioning-related changes in Purkinje cells, more than half of the cells showed suppressed activities in response to the conditioned stimulus after acquisition of conditioned fear. Purkinje cells that showed unconditioned stimulus-coupled complex-spike firings also exhibited conditioning-related suppression of simple-spike responses to the conditioned stimulus. A small number of Purkinje cells showed increased excitatory responses in the acquisition sessions. We found that the magnitudes of changes in the firing frequencies of some Purkinje cells in response to the conditioned stimulus correlated with the magnitudes of the conditioned

  9. From process to proxy: Ecological challenges and opportunities of tree-ring based environmental reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmking, Martin; Buras, Allan; Heinrich, Ingo; Scharnweber, Tobias; Simard, Sonia; Smiljanic, Marko; van der Maaten, Ernst; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke

    2014-05-01

    Trees are sessile, long-living organisms and as such constantly need to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Accordingly, they often show high phenotypic plasticity (the ability to change phenotypic traits, such as allocation of resources) in response to environmental change. This high phenotypic plasticity is generally considered as one of the main ingredients for a sessile organism to survive and reach high ages. Precisely because of the ability of trees to reach old age and their in-ability to simply run away when conditions get worse, growth information recorded in tree rings has long been used as a major environmental proxy, covering time scales from decades to millennia. Past environmental conditions (e.g. climate) are recorded in i.e. annual tree-ring width, early- and latewood width, wood density, isotopic concentrations, cell anatomy or wood chemistry. One prerequisite for a reconstruction is that the relationship between the environmental variable influencing tree growth and the tree-growth variable itself is stable through time. This, however, might contrast the ecological theory of high plasticity and the trees ability to adapt to change. To untangle possible mechanisms leading to stable or unstable relationships between tree growth and environmental variables, it is helpful to have exact site information and several proxy variables of each tree-ring series available. Although we gain insight into the environmental history of a sampling site when sampling today, this is extremely difficult when using archeological wood. In this latter case, we face the additional challenge of unknown origin, provenance and (or) site conditions, making it even more important to use multiple proxy time-series from the same sample. Here, we review typical examples, where the relationship between tree growth and environmental variables seems 1) stable and 2) instable through time, and relate these two cases to ecological theory. Based on ecological theory, we then

  10. Framing futures: visualizing on social-ecological systems change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the complexity and uncertainty that characterizes linked human and natural systems - or social-ecological systems - has proliferated throughout the sciences in recent decades. However, dominant societal images, mental models and discourses frame the complexity of

  11. Can Evolution Supply What Ecology Demands?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokko, Hanna; Chaturvedi, Anurag; Croll, Daniel; Fischer, Martin C; Guillaume, Frédéric; Karrenberg, Sophie; Kerr, Ben; Rolshausen, Gregor; Stapley, Jessica

    2017-03-01

    A simplistic view of the adaptive process pictures a hillside along which a population can climb: when ecological 'demands' change, evolution 'supplies' the variation needed for the population to climb to a new peak. Evolutionary ecologists point out that this simplistic view can be incomplete because the fitness landscape changes dynamically as the population evolves. Geneticists meanwhile have identified complexities relating to the nature of genetic variation and its architecture, and the importance of epigenetic variation is under debate. In this review, we highlight how complexity in both ecological 'demands' and the evolutionary 'supply' influences organisms' ability to climb fitness landscapes that themselves change dynamically as evolution proceeds, and encourage new synthetic effort across research disciplines towards ecologically realistic studies of adaptation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Marine historical ecology at the Brijuni Islands, Croatia: preliminary results from down-core changes of foraminiferal assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidovic, Jelena; Cosovic, Vlasta; Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alexandra; Zuschin, Martin

    2015-04-01

    100 cm to 25 to 42 species per sample. Diversity indices follow the pattern of species richness and point to normal marine conditions. Similarity indices rise with core depth. The radiometric dating of the sediments together with carbon-calibrated amino acid- racemisation of mollusc shells from selected species will help to determine the timing of major ecological changes.

  13. Ecological effects of exposure to enhanced levels of ionizing radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geras'kin, Stanislav A

    2016-10-01

    Irradiation of plants and animals can result in disruption of ecological relationships between the components of ecosystems. Such effects may act as triggers of perturbation and lead to consequences that may differ essentially from expected ones based on effects observed at the organismal level. Considerable differences in ecology and niches occupied by different species lead to substantial differences in doses of ionizing radiation absorbed by species, even when they all are present in the same environment at the same time. This is especially evident for contamination with α-emitting radionuclides. Radioactive contamination can be considered an ecological factor that is able to modify the resistance in natural populations. However, there are radioecological situations when elevated radioresistance does not evolve or persist. The complexity and non-linearity of the structure and functioning of ecosystems can lead to unexpected consequences of stress effects, which would appear harmless if they were assessed within the narrower context of organism-based traditional radioecology. Therefore, the use of ecological knowledge is essential for understanding responses of populations and ecosystems to radiation exposure. Integration of basic ecological principles in the design and implementation of radioecological research is essential for predicting radiation effects under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Relationship among values, beliefs, norms and ecological behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González López, Antonio; Amérigo Cuervo-Arango, María

    2008-11-01

    The present study focuses mainly on the relationship between psychological constructs and ecological behaviour. Empirical analysis links personal values, ecological beliefs, consequences of environmental conditions, denial of ecological obligation, environmental control, personal norms and environment protection behaviour. Survey data from a path analysis of a Spanish sample of 403 individuals were used, showing that ecological beliefs, personal norms and eco-altruistic values have become the main psychological explanatory variables of environment protective behaviour. Ecological beliefs, when measured by the New Ecological Paradigm Scale, affected ecological behaviour decisively. Environmental and altruistic values were shown to be related to moral obligation, and a basic variable to understand behaviour. Personal norm mediated the effects of values and environmental control on ecological behaviour.

  15. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  16. Ecological Pressure of Carbon Footprint in Passenger Transport: Spatio-Temporal Changes and Regional Disparities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Ma

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Passenger transport has become a significant producer of carbon emissions in China, thus strongly contributing to climate change. In this paper, we first propose a model of ecological pressure of the carbon footprint in passenger transport (EPcfpt. In the model, the EPcfpt values of all the provinces and autonomous regions of China are calculated and analyzed during the period of 2006–2015. For the outlier EPcfpt values of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, the research areas are classified into two scenarios: the first scenario (all the provinces and autonomous regions and the second scenario (not including Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis of the first scenario shows that the EPcfpt might be randomly distributed, while it shows positive spatial autocorrelation in the second scenario. Furthermore, we carry out the local spatial autocorrelation analysis of the second scenario, and find that the low aggregation areas are the most common type and are mainly located in the west of China. Then the disparities in EPcfpt between China’s Eight Comprehensive Economic Zones are further analyzed. Finally, we put forward a number of policy recommendations in relation to the spatio-temporal changes and the regional disparities of EPcfpt in China. This study provides related references for proposing effective policy measures to reduce the ecological pressure of carbon emissions from the passenger transport sector.

  17. From aquaculture goals to real social and ecological impacts: carp introduction in rural Central Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, Mónica; Zambrano, Luis

    2003-06-01

    Aquaculture has been seen as a solution to food/protein availability in rural populations of poor countries. It is mainly based on exotic species, that produce changes in host system dynamics once introduced. Aquaculture not only changes the ecology of freshwater systems, but can also lead to modification of social relations. Until now, aquaculture programs have not been adequately analyzed no questioned enough. We evaluate both ecological effects and local social benefits of common carp aquaculture programs in shallow ponds of rural areas, using a municipality in Central Mexico as a case study. Using an "environmental entitlements" approach, our findings suggest that: i) carp aquaculture increases water turbidity and depletes native species reducing the poor people's access to them; ii) aquaculture mainly benefits pond owners rather than poor peasants. This mainly results from changes in fishing rights. We conclude that aquaculture policy goals and assumptions of benefits should be reviewed, if the negative ecological effects are to be decreased and conditions for people in rural areas are to be improved.

  18. Ocean Acidification May Aggravate Social-Ecological Trade-Offs in Coastal Fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F.; Schmidt, Jörn O.; Kapaun, Ute

    2015-01-01

    Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local

  19. Ocean acidification may aggravate social-ecological trade-offs in coastal fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Rudi; Quaas, Martin F; Schmidt, Jörn O; Kapaun, Ute

    2015-01-01

    Ocean Acidification (OA) will influence marine ecosystems by changing species abundance and composition. Major effects are described for calcifying organisms, which are significantly impacted by decreasing pH values. Direct effects on commercially important fish are less well studied. The early life stages of fish populations often lack internal regulatory mechanisms to withstand the effects of abnormal pH. Negative effects can be expected on growth, survival, and recruitment success. Here we study Norwegian coastal cod, one of the few stocks where such a negative effect was experimentally quantified, and develop a framework for coupling experimental data on OA effects to ecological-economic fisheries models. In this paper, we scale the observed physiological responses to the population level by using the experimentally determined mortality rates as part of the stock-recruitment relationship. We then use an ecological-economic optimization model, to explore the potential effect of rising CO2 concentration on ecological (stock size), economic (profits), consumer-related (harvest) and social (employment) indicators, with scenarios ranging from present day conditions up to extreme acidification. Under the assumptions of our model, yields and profits could largely be maintained under moderate OA by adapting future fishing mortality (and related effort) to changes owing to altered pH. This adaptation comes at the costs of reduced stock size and employment, however. Explicitly visualizing these ecological, economic and social tradeoffs will help in defining realistic future objectives. Our results can be generalized to any stressor (or stressor combination), which is decreasing recruitment success. The main findings of an aggravation of trade-offs will remain valid. This seems to be of special relevance for coastal stocks with limited options for migration to avoid unfavorable future conditions and subsequently for coastal fisheries, which are often small scale local

  20. Building Adaptive Capacity in Changing Social-Ecological Systems: Integrating Knowledge in Communal Land-Use Planning in the Peruvian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lily O. Rodríguez

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Building resilient sustainable social-ecological systems (SES requires communities to enhance their adaptive capacities. Communal participative land-use planning (Zonificación Participativa Comunal—ZPC is a tool designed for communities to integrating local and scientific knowledge to sustainably organize and manage their SES. Between 2006 and 2011, a ZPC was developed with communities in the buffer zone of Cordillera Azul National Park (Peru, where rapid demographic changes are converting pre-montane seasonally dry forest into agricultural land. Herein, we analyse how the ZPC enhanced adaptive capacity, enabling the SES to cope with environmental, political and economic changes. Based on qualitative, semi-structured interviews, communities are analysed along their capacities in the dimensions social capital, learning, adaptive management and governance. An analysis of yearly high-resolution forest cover data supports our findings. Deforestation activities in biologically sensitive zones decreased rapidly during the time of the ZPC implementation. We find that particularly the long-term presence of the bridging institution and the continuous testing and reflection of the integrated “hybrid knowledge” enabled communities to develop adaptive capacities. The analysis of ZPC our results reveals the enabling conditions for promoting the learning process to develop a sustainable land-use management in the context of migration and rapid changes.

  1. Ecological implications of behavioural syndromes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sih, Andrew; Cote, Julien; Evans, Mara; Fogarty, Sean; Pruitt, Jonathan

    2012-03-01

    Interspecific trait variation has long served as a conceptual foundation for our understanding of ecological patterns and dynamics. In particular, ecologists recognise the important role that animal behaviour plays in shaping ecological processes. An emerging area of interest in animal behaviour, the study of behavioural syndromes (animal personalities) considers how limited behavioural plasticity, as well as behavioural correlations affects an individual's fitness in diverse ecological contexts. In this article we explore how insights from the concept and study of behavioural syndromes provide fresh understanding of major issues in population ecology. We identify several general mechanisms for how population ecology phenomena can be influenced by a species or population's average behavioural type, by within-species variation in behavioural type, or by behavioural correlations across time or across ecological contexts. We note, in particular, the importance of behavioural type-dependent dispersal in spatial ecology. We then review recent literature and provide new syntheses for how these general mechanisms produce novel insights on five major issues in population ecology: (1) limits to species' distribution and abundance; (2) species interactions; (3) population dynamics; (4) relative responses to human-induced rapid environmental change; and (5) ecological invasions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  2. ?My Worries Are Rational, Climate Change Is Not?: Habitual Ecological Worrying Is an Adaptive Response

    OpenAIRE

    Verplanken, Bas; Roy, Deborah

    2013-01-01

    Qualifications such as "global warming hysteria" and "energy policy schizophrenia" put forward by some climate change skeptics, usually outside the academic arena, may suggest that people who seriously worry about the environment suffer from psychological imbalance. The present study aimed to refute this thesis. While habitual worrying in general is strongly associated with psychopathological symptoms, in a survey a near-zero correlation was found between habitual ecological worrying and path...

  3. Sudden changes in environmental conditions do not increase invasion risk in grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruprecht, Eszter; Fenesi, Annamária; Nijs, Ivan

    2013-02-01

    After direct habitat transformation, biological invasions are considered to be the second most important threat to biodiversity. A better understanding of the factors affecting invasion success in new areas is crucial, and may provide insight into potential control actions. We hypothesized that invasion risk increases in habitats undergoing a sudden change in the disturbance regime or environmental conditions. For testing this assumption we initiated a seed sowing experiment while introducing two novel treatments, mowing twice and fertilizer application, in two grassland sites (one dryer and one mesic) in Romania. The seeds of two invasive species, Solidago canadensis and Rudbeckia laciniata, and two resident natives of similar seed sizes, life-forms and strategies were sowed in treated and control plots, and seed germination, seedling establishment and growth were followed during four months. Contrary to our expectations, there was no difference in the treatment effects on seed germination and seedling establishment between species, while there was on seedling vigour of the larger seeded species in the dryer grassland site, where the native had a higher performance especially in increased nutrient conditions. Indifferently from applied treatments, invasive species had greater cumulative germination in the mesic site, while natives were far more successful in seedling establishment in the drier site. At the same time, seed size was found to be a very important factor explaining germination and establishment success, with large seeded species outperforming small seeded species in any circumstances. Our results call the attention upon management interventions in mesic, productive grassland sites opening colonization windows for the recruitment of those invasive species of which ecological requirements correspond to local environmental conditions.

  4. Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

    2018-04-15

    Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Scaling environmental change through the community level: a trait-based response-and-effect framework for plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katharine N. Suding; Sandra Lavorel; F. Stuart Chapin; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Sandra Diaz; Eric Garnier; Deborah Goldberg; David U. Hooper; Stephen T. Jackson; Marie-Laure. Navas

    2008-01-01

    Predicting ecosystem responses to global change is a major challenge in ecology. A critical step in that challenge is to understand how changing environmental conditions influence processes across levels of ecological organization. While direct scaling from individual to ecosystem dynamics can lead to robust and mechanistic predictions, new approaches are needed to...

  6. Microbial ecology of mountain glacier ecosystems: biodiversity, ecological connections and implications of a warming climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotaling, Scott; Hood, Eran; Hamilton, Trinity L

    2017-08-01

    Glacier ecosystems are teeming with life on, beneath, and to a lesser degree, within their icy masses. This conclusion largely stems from polar research, with less attention paid to mountain glaciers that overlap environmentally and ecologically with their polar counterparts in some ways, but diverge in others. One difference lies in the susceptibility of mountain glaciers to the near-term threat of climate change, as they tend to be much smaller in both area and volume. Moreover, mountain glaciers are typically steeper, more dependent upon basal sliding for movement, and experience higher seasonal precipitation. Here, we provide a modern synthesis of the microbial ecology of mountain glacier ecosystems, and particularly those at low- to mid-latitudes. We focus on five ecological zones: the supraglacial surface, englacial interior, subglacial bedrock-ice interface, proglacial streams and glacier forefields. For each, we discuss the role of microbiota in biogeochemical cycling and outline ecological and hydrological connections among zones, underscoring the interconnected nature of these ecosystems. Collectively, we highlight the need to: better document the biodiversity and functional roles of mountain glacier microbiota; describe the ecological implications of rapid glacial retreat under climate change and resolve the relative contributions of ecological zones to broader ecosystem function. © 2017 The Authors. Environmental Microbiology published by Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Eco-Environment Status Evaluation and Change Analysis of Qinghai Based on National Geographic Conditions Census Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, M.; Zhu, M.; Wang, Y.; Xu, C.; Yang, H.

    2018-04-01

    As the headstream of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Lantsang River, located in the hinterland of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qinghai province is hugely significant for ecosystem as well as for ecological security and sustainable development in China. With the accomplishment of the first national geographic condition census, the frequent monitoring has begun. The classification indicators of the census and monitoring data are highly correlated with Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation released by Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2015. Based on three years' geographic conditions data (2014-2016), Landsat-8 images and thematic data (water resource, pollution emissions, meteorological data, soil erosion, etc.), a multi-years and high-precision eco-environment status evaluation and spatiotemporal change analysis of Qinghai province has been researched on the basis of Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation in this paper. Unlike the evaluation implemented by environmental protection department, the evaluation unit in this paper is town rather than county. The evaluation result shows that the eco-environment status in Qinghai is generally in a fine condition, and has significant regional differences. The eco-environment status evaluation based on national geographic conditions census and monitoring data can improve both the time and space precision. The eco-environment status with high space precise and multi-indices is a key basis for environment protection decision-making.

  8. Evaluative conditioning induces changes in sound valence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna C. Bolders

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Evaluative Conditioning (EC has hardly been tested in the auditory domain, but it is a potentially valuable research tool. In Experiment 1 we investigated whether the affective evaluation of short environmental sounds can be changed using affective words as unconditioned stimuli (US. Congruence effects on an affective priming task (APT for conditioned sounds demonstrated successful EC. Subjective ratings for sounds paired with negative words changed accordingly. In Experiment 2 we investigated whether the acquired valence remains stable after repeated presentation of the conditioned sound without the US or whether extinction occurs. The acquired affective value remained present, albeit weaker, even after 40 extinction trials. These results warrant the use of EC to study processing of short environmental sounds with acquired valence, even if this requires repeated stimulus presentations. This paves the way for studying processing of affective environmental sounds while effectively controlling low level-stimulus properties.

  9. The Autoimmune Ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaya, Juan-Manuel; Ramirez-Santana, Carolina; Alzate, Maria A; Molano-Gonzalez, Nicolas; Rojas-Villarraga, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    Autoimmune diseases (ADs) represent a heterogeneous group of disorders that affect specific target organs or multiple organ systems. These conditions share common immunopathogenic mechanisms (i.e., the autoimmune tautology), which explain the clinical similarities they have among them as well as their familial clustering (i.e., coaggregation). As part of the autoimmune tautology, the influence of environmental exposure on the risk of developing ADs is paramount (i.e., the autoimmune ecology). In fact, environment, more than genetics, shapes immune system. Autoimmune ecology is akin to exposome, that is all the exposures - internal and external - across the lifespan, interacting with hereditary factors (both genetics and epigenetics) to favor or protect against autoimmunity and its outcomes. Herein, we provide an overview of the autoimmune ecology, focusing on the immune response to environmental agents in general, and microbiota, cigarette smoking, alcohol and coffee consumption, socioeconomic status (SES), gender and sex hormones, vitamin D, organic solvents, and vaccines in particular. Inclusion of the autoimmune ecology in disease etiology and health will improve the way personalized medicine is currently conceived and applied.

  10. THE AUTOIMMUNE ECOLOGY.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan-Manuel eAnaya

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Autoimmune diseases (ADs represent a heterogeneous group of disorders that affect specific target organs or multiple organ systems. These conditions share common immunopathogenic mechanisms (i.e., the autoimmune tautology, which explain the clinical similarities they have among them as well as their familial clustering (i.e., coaggregation. As part of the autoimmune tautology, the influence of environmental exposure on the risk of developing ADs is paramount (i.e., the autoimmune ecology. In fact, environment, more than genetics, shapes immune system. Autoimmune ecology is akin to exposome, that is all the exposures - internal and external - across the lifespan, interacting with hereditary factors (both genetics and epigenetics to favor or protect against autoimmunity and its outcomes. Herein we provide an overview of the autoimmune ecology, focusing on the immune response to environmental agents in general, and microbiota, cigarette smoking, alcohol and coffee consumption, socioeconomic status, gender and sex hormones, vitamin D, organic solvents and vaccines in particular. Inclusion of the autoimmune ecology in disease etiology and health will improve the way personalized medicine is currently conceived and applied.

  11. Multiple Chronic Conditions, Resilience, and Workforce Transitions in Later Life: A Socio-Ecological Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jason, Kendra J; Carr, Dawn C; Washington, Tiffany R; Hilliard, Tandrea S; Mingo, Chivon A

    2017-04-01

    Despite the growing prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC), a problem that disproportionally affects older adults, few studies have examined the impact of MCC status on changes in workforce participation in later life. Recent research suggests that resilience, the ability to recover from adversity, may buffer the negative impact of chronic disease. Guided by an adapted socio-ecological risk and resilience conceptual model, this study examined the buffering effect of resilience on the relationship between individual and contextual risks, including MCC, and workforce transitions (i.e., leaving the workforce, working fewer hours, working the same hours, or working more hours). Using the Health and Retirement Study, this study pooled a sample of 4,861 older workers aged 51 and older with 2 consecutive biannual waves of data. Nonnested multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied. MCC are related to higher risk of transitioning out of the workforce. Resilience buffered the negative effects of MCC on workforce engagement and remained independently associated with increased probability of working the same or more hours compared with leaving work. MCC are associated with movement out of the paid workforce in later life. Despite the challenges MCC impose on older workers, having higher levels of resilience may provide the psychological resources needed to sustain work engagement in the face of new deficits. These findings suggest that identifying ways to bolster resilience may enhance the longevity of productive workforce engagement. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Variation in the wood anatomical structure of Gmelina arborea (Verbenaceae) trees at different ecological conditions in Costa Rica

    OpenAIRE

    MOYA, Roger; FO, Mario Tomazello

    2008-01-01

    The tree Gmelina arborea has been widely introduced in Costa Rica for commercial purposes. This new conditions for melina cause variations on anatomy in secondary xylem of the trees growing in plantations. The objective of the present research was to determine the variation in the anatomy of xylem caused by the ecological conduction variation. Dimensions of fiber, axial parenchyma percentage of cross sections, parameters of vessels and the ray were measured. The results showed that some anato...

  13. Antimicrobial Effect of 15 Medicinal Plant Species and their Dependency on Climatic Conditions of Growth in Different Geographical and Ecological Areas of Fars Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Abdollahi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The effects of medicinal plants are variable in different conditions. Here, the antimicrobial effect of 15 medicinal plant species and their dependency on the climatic condition of growth in different geographical and ecological areas of Fars Province were studied. Materials and Methods: In This empirical study, the antimicrobial effect of hydro-alcoholic extract of 15 medicinal plant species was examined against standard bacterial strains comparing to conventional therapeutic antibiotics using disk diffusion assay and serial broth dilution. Results: All Extracts were effective against S.aureus ATCC 25923 growth; also Peganum harmala, Myrtus communis, Mentha pulegium, Mentha spp, and Zataria multiflora extracts were observed to have antimicrobial activity against E.coli ATCC 25922. This antimicrobial activity had partially similar results, comparing to conventional antibioticsConclusion: Medicinal plants produce various amounts of antimicrobial substances under the climatic and ecological conditions of each zone, which must be considered in manufacturing herbal medicines.

  14. Interior Design Education within a Human Ecological Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaup, Migette L.; Anderson, Barbara G.; Honey, Peggy

    2007-01-01

    An education based in human ecology can greatly benefit interior designers as they work to understand and improve the human condition. Design programs housed in colleges focusing on human ecology can improve the interior design profession by taking advantage of their home base and emphasizing the human ecological framework in the design curricula.…

  15. Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends

  16. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  17. The special effects of hypnosis and hypnotherapy: A contribution to an ecological model of therapeutic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mende, Matthias

    2006-04-01

    There is ample evidence that hypnosis enhances the effectiveness of psychotherapy and produces some astounding effects of its own. In this paper, the effective components and principles of hypnosis and hypnotherapy are analyzed. The "special" hypnotic and hypnotherapeutic effects are linked to the fact that the ecological requirements of therapeutic change are taken into account implicitly and/or explicitly when working with hypnotic trances in a therapeutic setting. The hypnotic situation is described--theoretically and in case examples--as a therapeutic modality that gratifies and aligns the basic emotional needs to feel autonomous, related, competent, and oriented. It is shown how the hypnotic relationship can help promote a sound ecological balance between these needs--a balance that is deemed to be a necessary prerequisite for salutogenesis. Practical implications for planning hypnotherapeutic interventions are discussed.

  18. Ecological stability of landscape - ecological infrastructure - ecological management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Field Workshop 'Ecological Stability of Landscape - Ecological Infrastructure - Ecological Management' was held within a State Environmental Programme financed by the Federal Committee for the Environment. The objectives of the workshop were to present Czech and Slovak approaches to the ecological stability of the landscape by means of examples of some case studies in the field, and to exchange ideas, theoretical knowledge and practical experience on implementing the concept of ecological infrastructure in landscape management. Out of 19 papers contained in the proceedings, 3 items were inputted to the INIS system. (Z.S.)

  19. Lake Restoration in Terms of Ecological Resilience: a Numerical Study of Biomanipulations under Bistable Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takashi Amemiya

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available An abstract version of the comprehensive aquatic simulation model (CASM is found to exhibit bistability under intermediate loading of nutrient input, supporting the alternative-stable-states theory and field observations for shallow lakes. Our simulations of biomanipulations under the bistable conditions reveal that a reduction in the abundance of zooplanktivorous fish cannot switch the system from a turbid to a clear state. Rather, a direct reduction of phytoplankton and detritus was found to be most effective to make this switch in the present model. These results imply that multiple manipulations may be effective for practical restorations of lakes. We discuss the present results of biomanipulations in terms of ecological resilience in multivariable systems or natural systems.

  20. Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

    2005-07-01

    The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

  1. Macrophyte distribution and ecological status of the Turiec River (Slovakia: Changes after seven years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hrivnák R.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Characteristics of diversity, abundance, distribution, and ecological status of aquatic macrophytes were observed in 2000 and 2007 on a circa 4.5 km long section of the Turiec River using Kohler's method. In comparison to 2000, the total number of macrophytes in 2007 increased markedly (from 25 to 35, although only the numbers of amphi­phytes and helophytes were changed substantially. The number of hydrophytes increased from 11 to 12; an invasive, Elodea canadenis, was the only new species. The relative plant mass of hydrophytes represents the bulk of all recorded species (95 and 80% in 2000 and 2007, respectively, and it was changed for most hydrophytes. The most significant changes were detected for Myriophyllum spicatum (decrease, filamentous algae (decrease, and Potamogeton crispus (increase. In 2007, the mean mass total (MMT sum of hydrophytes decreased from 16.46 to 14.5. On the other hand, the MMTsum of amphiphytes and helophytes doubled in value (7.4 and 14.1 in 2000 and 2007, respectively. Within hydrophytes, Batrachium species (including B. aquatile and B. trichophyllum, Myriophyllum spicatum, and Potamogeton crispus were ubiquitous (distribution ratio d > 0.5 in 2000, whereas in 2007 only Batrachium species and Potamogeton crispus were ubiquitous. At all times, Batrachium species were the most frequent species in the study area, and their abundance was relatively high (MMT> 2.5. A poor ecological status (MMP = 0.378 and MMP = 0.333 in 2000 and 2007, respectively of the surveyed river section was found in both years, but a slight decline of quality as determined on the basis of aquatic plants was observed after 7 years.

  2. MAIN LAND USE PLANNING APPROACHES TO STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS LOCAL ECOLOGICAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TretiakV.M.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In modern conditions of social development, changes in land eco-system of economic relations in Ukraine, the problem of providing conditions for the creation of sustainable land use and creation of protected areas get the status of special urgency. Ideology establishment of ecological networks became logical continuation of environmental thought in general. Considering the methodological approach to the establishment of ecological networks we can constitute, that it is an environmental frame of spatial infrastructure, land conservation and environmental areas, major part of land is the basis of the structural elements of ecological network. Designing an ecological network is made through developing regional schemes of Econet formation, regional and local schemes for establishing an ecological network areas, settlements and other areas. Land Management uses design of structural elements of the ecological network in the village council, as a rule, begins with ecological and landscape mikrozonationof the village council, held during the preparatory work for the land drafting and finishing the formation of environmentally homogeneous regions, which represents the tied system components of ecological network, environmental measures in the form of local environmental restrictions (encumbrances to use land and other natural resources. Additionally, there are some project organization and territorial measures that increase the sustainability area, such as: key, binders, buffer areas and renewable ecological network. Land management projects on the formation of structural elements of ecological network as territorial restrictions (encumbrances in land are used within the territories Councils determined the location and size of land: - Protection zones around especially valuable natural objects of cultural heritage, meteorological stations, etc. in order to protect them from adverse human impacts; - Protection zones along telecommunication lines, power

  3. Pollination ecology and the possible impacts of environmental change in the Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot

    OpenAIRE

    Phillips, Ryan D.; Hopper, Stephen D.; Dixon, Kingsley W.

    2010-01-01

    The Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot contains an exceptionally diverse flora on an ancient, low-relief but edaphically diverse landscape. Since European colonization, the primary threat to the flora has been habitat clearance, though climate change is an impending threat. Here, we review (i) the ecology of nectarivores and biotic pollination systems in the region, (ii) the evidence that trends in pollination strategies are a consequence of characteristics of the landscape, and (iii) ...

  4. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, LN; Newbold, T; Contu, S; Hill, SLL; Lysenko, I; De Palma, A; Phillips, HRP; Alhusseini, TI; Bedford, FE; Bennett, DJ; Booth, H; Burton, VJ; Chng, CWT; Choimes, A; Correia, DLP

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  5. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    OpenAIRE

    Hudson, L. N.; Newbold, T.; Contu, S.; Hill, S. L.; Lysenko, I.; De Palma, A.; Phillips, H. R.; Alhusseini, T. I.; Bedford, F. E.; Bennett, D. J.; Booth, H.; Burton, V. J.; Chng, C. W.; Choimes, A.; Correia, D. L.

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make free...

  6. Ecological alarm system for Itaipu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faehser, L.

    1984-05-01

    At Itaipu, on the Rio Parana, Brazil and Paraguay are constructing the world's largest hydro-electric power plant with a capacity seven times as high as that of Assuan. An information system is intended to give fair warning in case of threatening ecological conditions. The computer-supported alarm system had four objectives: 1. presentation of the present ecological situation; 2. evaluation of the ecological risks; 3. warning about ecological deficits; 4. suggestions for establishing ecological stability. In a first step the available inventory data concerning soil, topography, vegetation and water were evaluated by expert groups according to their risk grade (0-4) and ecological weight (1-10). The product of these evaluations indicates the ecological deficit (0-40). At a threshold value of 30, the information system automatically signals ecological alarm and locates the centre of danger via computer-plotted maps and tables. The necessary data are supplied periodically by selected measurement stations. Quantification of ecological facts enables the persons who are responsible for decisions at Itaipu to recognize, avoid, or diminish elements of danger even if they have little or no ecological knowledge. The file of data that has been compiled so far should be extended parallel with the development in the Itaipu area. With the help of factor analysis connections of cause and effect can be detected in this extremely complex reservoir system which has hardly been explored yet.

  7. Balancing lake ecological condition and agriculture irrigation needs in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Omer, A.R.; Killgore, K.J.

    2017-01-01

    The Mississippi Alluvial Valley includes hundreds of floodplain lakes that support unique fish assemblages and high biodiversity. Irrigation practices in the valley have lowered the water table, increasing the cost of pumping water, and necessitating the use of floodplain lakes as a source of water for irrigation. This development has prompted the need to regulate water withdrawals to protect aquatic resources, but it is unknown how much water can be withdrawn from lakes before ecological integrity is compromised. To estimate withdrawal limits, we examined descriptors of lake water quality (i.e., total nitrogen, total phosphorus, turbidity, Secchi visibility, chlorophyll-a) and fish assemblages (species richness, diversity, composition) relative to maximum depth in 59 floodplain lakes. Change-point regression analysis was applied to identify critical depths at which the relationships between depth and lake descriptors exhibited a rapid shift in slope, suggesting possible thresholds. All our water quality and fish assemblage descriptors showed rapid changes relative to depth near 1.2–2.0 m maximum depth. This threshold span may help inform regulatory decisions about water withdrawal limits. Alternatives to explain the triggers of the observed threshold span are considered.

  8. Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

  9. Ecological site-based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explore how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass-succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 Ha). We identify vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area can be effectively controlled when bare ground cover is 100 cm in length is less than ~35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the development of

  10. Ecological site‐based assessments of wind and water erosion: informing accelerated soil erosion management in rangelands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Nicholas P; Herrick, Jeffrey E; Duniway, Michael C

    Accelerated soil erosion occurs when anthropogenic processes modify soil, vegetation, or climatic conditions causing erosion rates at a location to exceed their natural variability. Identifying where and when accelerated erosion occurs is a critical first step toward its effective management. Here we explored how erosion assessments structured in the context of ecological sites (a land classification based on soils, landscape setting, and ecological potential) and their vegetation states (plant assemblages that may change due to management) can inform systems for reducing accelerated soil erosion in rangelands. We evaluated aeolian horizontal sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion rates for five ecological sites in southern New Mexico, USA, using monitoring data and rangeland-specific wind and water erosion models. Across the ecological sites, plots in shrub-encroached and shrub-dominated vegetation states were consistently susceptible to aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion. Both processes were found to be highly variable for grassland and grass–succulent states across the ecological sites at the plot scale (0.25 ha). We identified vegetation thresholds that define cover levels below which rapid (exponential) increases in aeolian sediment flux and fluvial sediment erosion occur across the ecological sites and vegetation states. Aeolian sediment flux and fluvial erosion in the study area could be effectively controlled when bare ground cover was 100 cm in length was less than ∼35%. Land use and management activities that alter cover levels such that they cross thresholds, and/or drive vegetation state changes, may increase the susceptibility of areas to erosion. Land use impacts that are constrained within the range of natural variability should not result in accelerated soil erosion. Evaluating land condition against the erosion thresholds identified here will enable identification of areas susceptible to accelerated soil erosion and the

  11. Ecological and economical analysis of development of beekeeping in Dagestan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Gasanov

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Dagestan Republic is a zone of complex beekeeping. To ensure favorable ecological and economic conditions of bees’ live bees it is necessary to estimate first of all an ecological condition of bee families, using thus melliferous bees as bioindicators.

  12. The altered ecology of Lake Christina: A record of regime shifts, land-use change, and management from a temperate shallow lake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theissen, Kevin M.; Hobbs, William O.; Hobbs, Joy M. Ramstack; Zimmer, Kyle D.; Domine, Leah M.; Cotner, James B.; Sugita, Shinya

    2012-01-01

    We collected two sediment cores and modern submerged aquatic plants and phytoplankton from two sub-basins of Lake Christina, a large shallow lake in west-central Minnesota, and used stable isotopic and elemental proxies from sedimentary organic matter to explore questions about the pre- and post-settlement ecology of the lake. The two morphologically distinct sub-basins vary in their sensitivities to internal and external perturbations offering different paleoecological information. The record from the shallower and much larger western sub-basin reflects its strong response to internal processes, while the smaller and deeper eastern sub-basin record primarily reflects external processes including important post-settlement land-use changes in the area. A significant increase in organic carbon accumulation (3–4 times pre-settlement rates) and long-term trends in δ 13 C, organic carbon to nitrogen ratios (C/N), and biogenic silica concentrations shows that primary production has increased and the lake has become increasingly phytoplankton-dominated in the post-settlement period. Significant shifts in δ 15 N values reflect land-clearing and agricultural practices in the region and support the idea that nutrient inputs have played an important role in triggering changes in the trophic status of the lake. Our examination of hydroclimatic data for the region over the last century suggests that natural forcings on lake ecology have diminished in their importance as human management of the lake increased in the mid-1900s. In the last 50 years, three chemical biomanipulations have temporarily shifted the lake from the turbid, algal-dominated condition into a desired clear water regime. Two of our proxies (δ 13 C and BSi) measured from the higher resolution eastern basin record responded significantly to these known regime shifts. -- Highlights: ► We explore the sediment geochemistry from Lake Christina's two distinct sub-basins. ► Our geochemical data show

  13. Organising a safe space for navigating social-ecological transformations to sustainability

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, L.; Karpouzoglou, T.D.; Doshi, S.; Frantzeskaki, N.

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThe need for developing socially just living conditions for the world’s growing population whilst keeping human societies within a ‘safe operating space’ has become a modern imperative. This requires transformative changes in the dominant social norms, behaviours, governance and management regimes that guide human responses in areas such as urban ecology, public health, resource security (e.g., food, water, energy access), economic development and biodiversity conservation. Howeve...

  14. Conference Proceedings: Seed Ecology III - The Third International Society for Seed Science Meeting on Seeds and the Environment - "Seeds and Change"; June 20-June 24, 2010; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosemary Pendleton; Susan Meyer; Bitsy Schultz

    2010-01-01

    Seed Ecology III was held in Salt Lake City, Utah in June 2010, sharing the latest research on all aspects of seed ecology. Our meeting was organized around the theme "Seeds and Change." We welcomed contributions in any area of seed ecology. Our agenda also aimed to create bridges between seed ecology and plant conservation, restoration ecology, and global...

  15. Conditions for Change Related to Groupware in a Distributed Organization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Jesper; Pors, Jens Kaaber

    2003-01-01

    general types of settings where the groupware has been used: Newly established organizational units, special interest groups, short term projects, and teams handling recurrent tasks. We characterize these settings and present the overall conditions that have proven to be critical to the deployment...... of groupware in the case. Challenges and expectations are discussed and ideas concerning strategies for change are suggested. It is concluded that change related to groupware faces conditions that challenge ambitious goals in three of the settings, while conditions in general favour successful change related...

  16. Spatio-temporal analysis of the biophysical and ecological conditions of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae in the northeast region of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Badel-Mogollón

    2017-03-01

    Conclusions: Surface temperature and soil coverage were the variables that better explained the life cycle of T. dimidiata in the area. High relative humidity promoted the seek of shelters and an increase of the geographic distribution in the annual and biannual peaks of regional rainfall. The ecologic and anthropic conditions suggest that T. dimidiata is a highly resilient species.

  17. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Lawrence N; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara; Hill, Samantha L L; Lysenko, Igor; De Palma, Adriana; Phillips, Helen R P; Alhusseini, Tamera I; Bedford, Felicity E; Bennett, Dominic J; Booth, Hollie; Burton, Victoria J; Chng, Charlotte W T; Choimes, Argyrios; Correia, David L P; Day, Julie; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Emerson, Susan R; Gao, Di; Garon, Morgan; Harrison, Michelle L K; Ingram, Daniel J; Jung, Martin; Kemp, Victoria; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Martin, Callum D; Pan, Yuan; Pask-Hale, Gwilym D; Pynegar, Edwin L; Robinson, Alexandra N; Sanchez-Ortiz, Katia; Senior, Rebecca A; Simmons, Benno I; White, Hannah J; Zhang, Hanbin; Aben, Job; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Adum, Gilbert B; Aguilar-Barquero, Virginia; Aizen, Marcelo A; Albertos, Belén; Alcala, E L; Del Mar Alguacil, Maria; Alignier, Audrey; Ancrenaz, Marc; Andersen, Alan N; Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique; Armbrecht, Inge; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aumann, Tom; Axmacher, Jan C; Azhar, Badrul; Azpiroz, Adrián B; Baeten, Lander; Bakayoko, Adama; Báldi, András; Banks, John E; Baral, Sharad K; Barlow, Jos; Barratt, Barbara I P; Barrico, Lurdes; Bartolommei, Paola; Barton, Diane M; Basset, Yves; Batáry, Péter; Bates, Adam J; Baur, Bruno; Bayne, Erin M; Beja, Pedro; Benedick, Suzan; Berg, Åke; Bernard, Henry; Berry, Nicholas J; Bhatt, Dinesh; Bicknell, Jake E; Bihn, Jochen H; Blake, Robin J; Bobo, Kadiri S; Bóçon, Roberto; Boekhout, Teun; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Bonham, Kevin J; Borges, Paulo A V; Borges, Sérgio H; Boutin, Céline; Bouyer, Jérémy; Bragagnolo, Cibele; Brandt, Jodi S; Brearley, Francis Q; Brito, Isabel; Bros, Vicenç; Brunet, Jörg; Buczkowski, Grzegorz; Buddle, Christopher M; Bugter, Rob; Buscardo, Erika; Buse, Jörn; Cabra-García, Jimmy; Cáceres, Nilton C; Cagle, Nicolette L; Calviño-Cancela, María; Cameron, Sydney A; Cancello, Eliana M; Caparrós, Rut; Cardoso, Pedro; Carpenter, Dan; Carrijo, Tiago F; Carvalho, Anelena L; Cassano, Camila R; Castro, Helena; Castro-Luna, Alejandro A; Rolando, Cerda B; Cerezo, Alexis; Chapman, Kim Alan; Chauvat, Matthieu; Christensen, Morten; Clarke, Francis M; Cleary, Daniel F R; Colombo, Giorgio; Connop, Stuart P; Craig, Michael D; Cruz-López, Leopoldo; Cunningham, Saul A; D'Aniello, Biagio; D'Cruze, Neil; da Silva, Pedro Giovâni; Dallimer, Martin; Danquah, Emmanuel; Darvill, Ben; Dauber, Jens; Davis, Adrian L V; Dawson, Jeff; de Sassi, Claudio; de Thoisy, Benoit; Deheuvels, Olivier; Dejean, Alain; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Diekötter, Tim; Dolia, Jignasu V; Domínguez, Erwin; Dominguez-Haydar, Yamileth; Dorn, Silvia; Draper, Isabel; Dreber, Niels; Dumont, Bertrand; Dures, Simon G; Dynesius, Mats; Edenius, Lars; Eggleton, Paul; Eigenbrod, Felix; Elek, Zoltán; Entling, Martin H; Esler, Karen J; de Lima, Ricardo F; Faruk, Aisyah; Farwig, Nina; Fayle, Tom M; Felicioli, Antonio; Felton, Annika M; Fensham, Roderick J; Fernandez, Ignacio C; Ferreira, Catarina C; Ficetola, Gentile F; Fiera, Cristina; Filgueiras, Bruno K C; Fırıncıoğlu, Hüseyin K; Flaspohler, David; Floren, Andreas; Fonte, Steven J; Fournier, Anne; Fowler, Robert E; Franzén, Markus; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Fredriksson, Gabriella M; Freire, Geraldo B; Frizzo, Tiago L M; Fukuda, Daisuke; Furlani, Dario; Gaigher, René; Ganzhorn, Jörg U; García, Karla P; Garcia-R, Juan C; Garden, Jenni G; Garilleti, Ricardo; Ge, Bao-Ming; Gendreau-Berthiaume, Benoit; Gerard, Philippa J; Gheler-Costa, Carla; Gilbert, Benjamin; Giordani, Paolo; Giordano, Simonetta; Golodets, Carly; Gomes, Laurens G L; Gould, Rachelle K; Goulson, Dave; Gove, Aaron D; Granjon, Laurent; Grass, Ingo; Gray, Claudia L; Grogan, James; Gu, Weibin; Guardiola, Moisès; Gunawardene, Nihara R; Gutierrez, Alvaro G; Gutiérrez-Lamus, Doris L; Haarmeyer, Daniela H; Hanley, Mick E; Hanson, Thor; Hashim, Nor R; Hassan, Shombe N; Hatfield, Richard G; Hawes, Joseph E; Hayward, Matt W; Hébert, Christian; Helden, Alvin J; Henden, John-André; Henschel, Philipp; Hernández, Lionel; Herrera, James P; Herrmann, Farina; Herzog, Felix; Higuera-Diaz, Diego; Hilje, Branko; Höfer, Hubert; Hoffmann, Anke; Horgan, Finbarr G; Hornung, Elisabeth; Horváth, Roland; Hylander, Kristoffer; Isaacs-Cubides, Paola; Ishida, Hiroaki; Ishitani, Masahiro; Jacobs, Carmen T; Jaramillo, Víctor J; Jauker, Birgit; Hernández, F Jiménez; Johnson, McKenzie F; Jolli, Virat; Jonsell, Mats; Juliani, S Nur; Jung, Thomas S; Kapoor, Vena; Kappes, Heike; Kati, Vassiliki; Katovai, Eric; Kellner, Klaus; Kessler, Michael; Kirby, Kathryn R; Kittle, Andrew M; Knight, Mairi E; Knop, Eva; Kohler, Florian; Koivula, Matti; Kolb, Annette; Kone, Mouhamadou; Kőrösi, Ádám; Krauss, Jochen; Kumar, Ajith; Kumar, Raman; Kurz, David J; Kutt, Alex S; Lachat, Thibault; Lantschner, Victoria; Lara, Francisco; Lasky, Jesse R; Latta, Steven C; Laurance, William F; Lavelle, Patrick; Le Féon, Violette; LeBuhn, Gretchen; Légaré, Jean-Philippe; Lehouck, Valérie; Lencinas, María V; Lentini, Pia E; Letcher, Susan G; Li, Qi; Litchwark, Simon A; Littlewood, Nick A; Liu, Yunhui; Lo-Man-Hung, Nancy; López-Quintero, Carlos A; Louhaichi, Mounir; Lövei, Gabor L; Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban; Luja, Victor H; Luskin, Matthew S; MacSwiney G, M Cristina; Maeto, Kaoru; Magura, Tibor; Mallari, Neil Aldrin; Malone, Louise A; Malonza, Patrick K; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Mandujano, Salvador; Måren, Inger E; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Marsh, Charles J; Marshall, E J P; Martínez, Eliana; Martínez Pastur, Guillermo; Moreno Mateos, David; Mayfield, Margaret M; Mazimpaka, Vicente; McCarthy, Jennifer L; McCarthy, Kyle P; McFrederick, Quinn S; McNamara, Sean; Medina, Nagore G; Medina, Rafael; Mena, Jose L; Mico, Estefania; Mikusinski, Grzegorz; Milder, Jeffrey C; Miller, James R; Miranda-Esquivel, Daniel R; Moir, Melinda L; Morales, Carolina L; Muchane, Mary N; Muchane, Muchai; Mudri-Stojnic, Sonja; Munira, A Nur; Muoñz-Alonso, Antonio; Munyekenye, B F; Naidoo, Robin; Naithani, A; Nakagawa, Michiko; Nakamura, Akihiro; Nakashima, Yoshihiro; Naoe, Shoji; Nates-Parra, Guiomar; Navarrete Gutierrez, Dario A; Navarro-Iriarte, Luis; Ndang'ang'a, Paul K; Neuschulz, Eike L; Ngai, Jacqueline T; Nicolas, Violaine; Nilsson, Sven G; Noreika, Norbertas; Norfolk, Olivia; Noriega, Jorge Ari; Norton, David A; Nöske, Nicole M; Nowakowski, A Justin; Numa, Catherine; O'Dea, Niall; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Oduro, William; Oertli, Sabine; Ofori-Boateng, Caleb; Oke, Christopher Omamoke; Oostra, Vicencio; Osgathorpe, Lynne M; Otavo, Samuel Eduardo; Page, Navendu V; Paritsis, Juan; Parra-H, Alejandro; Parry, Luke; Pe'er, Guy; Pearman, Peter B; Pelegrin, Nicolás; Pélissier, Raphaël; Peres, Carlos A; Peri, Pablo L; Persson, Anna S; Petanidou, Theodora; Peters, Marcell K; Pethiyagoda, Rohan S; Phalan, Ben; Philips, T Keith; Pillsbury, Finn C; Pincheira-Ulbrich, Jimmy; Pineda, Eduardo; Pino, Joan; Pizarro-Araya, Jaime; Plumptre, A J; Poggio, Santiago L; Politi, Natalia; Pons, Pere; Poveda, Katja; Power, Eileen F; Presley, Steven J; Proença, Vânia; Quaranta, Marino; Quintero, Carolina; Rader, Romina; Ramesh, B R; Ramirez-Pinilla, Martha P; Ranganathan, Jai; Rasmussen, Claus; Redpath-Downing, Nicola A; Reid, J Leighton; Reis, Yana T; Rey Benayas, José M; Rey-Velasco, Juan Carlos; Reynolds, Chevonne; Ribeiro, Danilo Bandini; Richards, Miriam H; Richardson, Barbara A; Richardson, Michael J; Ríos, Rodrigo Macip; Robinson, Richard; Robles, Carolina A; Römbke, Jörg; Romero-Duque, Luz Piedad; Rös, Matthias; Rosselli, Loreta; Rossiter, Stephen J; Roth, Dana S; Roulston, T'ai H; Rousseau, Laurent; Rubio, André V; Ruel, Jean-Claude; Sadler, Jonathan P; Sáfián, Szabolcs; Saldaña-Vázquez, Romeo A; Sam, Katerina; Samnegård, Ulrika; Santana, Joana; Santos, Xavier; Savage, Jade; Schellhorn, Nancy A; Schilthuizen, Menno; Schmiedel, Ute; Schmitt, Christine B; Schon, Nicole L; Schüepp, Christof; Schumann, Katharina; Schweiger, Oliver; Scott, Dawn M; Scott, Kenneth A; Sedlock, Jodi L; Seefeldt, Steven S; Shahabuddin, Ghazala; Shannon, Graeme; Sheil, Douglas; Sheldon, Frederick H; Shochat, Eyal; Siebert, Stefan J; Silva, Fernando A B; Simonetti, Javier A; Slade, Eleanor M; Smith, Jo; Smith-Pardo, Allan H; Sodhi, Navjot S; Somarriba, Eduardo J; Sosa, Ramón A; Soto Quiroga, Grimaldo; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues; Starzomski, Brian M; Stefanescu, Constanti; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Stouffer, Philip C; Stout, Jane C; Strauch, Ayron M; Struebig, Matthew J; Su, Zhimin; Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Sugiura, Shinji; Summerville, Keith S; Sung, Yik-Hei; Sutrisno, Hari; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Teder, Tiit; Threlfall, Caragh G; Tiitsaar, Anu; Todd, Jacqui H; Tonietto, Rebecca K; Torre, Ignasi; Tóthmérész, Béla; Tscharntke, Teja; Turner, Edgar C; Tylianakis, Jason M; Uehara-Prado, Marcio; Urbina-Cardona, Nicolas; Vallan, Denis; Vanbergen, Adam J; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Vassilev, Kiril; Verboven, Hans A F; Verdasca, Maria João; Verdú, José R; Vergara, Carlos H; Vergara, Pablo M; Verhulst, Jort; Virgilio, Massimiliano; Vu, Lien Van; Waite, Edward M; Walker, Tony R; Wang, Hua-Feng; Wang, Yanping; Watling, James I; Weller, Britta; Wells, Konstans; Westphal, Catrin; Wiafe, Edward D; Williams, Christopher D; Willig, Michael R; Woinarski, John C Z; Wolf, Jan H D; Wolters, Volkmar; Woodcock, Ben A; Wu, Jihua; Wunderle, Joseph M; Yamaura, Yuichi; Yoshikura, Satoko; Yu, Douglas W; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Zeidler, Juliane; Zou, Fasheng; Collen, Ben; Ewers, Rob M; Mace, Georgina M; Purves, Drew W; Scharlemann, Jörn P W; Purvis, Andy

    2017-01-01

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

  18. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda B. Brubaker; Philip E. Higuera; T. Scott Rupp; Mark A. Olson; Patricia M. Anderson; Feng Sheng. Hu

    2009-01-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecological model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a...

  19. Integrating Ecological and Social Ranges of Variability in Conservation of Biodiversity: Past, Present, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally L. Duncan

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical range of variability has been proposed as a concept that can be used by forest land managers to guide conservation of ecosystem functions and biodiversity conservation. The role of humans in historical range of variability has remained somewhat murky and unsettled, even though it is clear that humans have been, are, and will continue to be forces of disturbance and recovery in forested landscapes. We attempt to develop concepts that integrate the ecological and social forces affecting landscape variability. Toward that end, we present a conceptual framework that places "range of variability" into a broader context and integrates the ecological and social forces affecting landscapes past, present, and future. We use two terms to aid us in understanding the utility of historical range of variability as a context and future range of variability as a point of comparison: (1 the ecological range of variability is the estimated range of some ecological condition as a function of the biophysical and social forces affecting the area and (2 the social range of variability is the range of an ecological condition that society finds acceptable at a given time. We find it is important to recognize that future range of variability represents a constantly emerging and changing set of conditions, and that the more humans push a system to depart from its historical range of variabiloity domain, the less likely it becomes that historical range of variability processes will prove useful as benchmarks in recovering a system.

  20. Fostering Complexity Thinking in Action Research for Change in Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin H. Rogers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Complexity thinking is increasingly being embraced by a wide range of academics and professionals as imperative for dealing with today's pressing social-ecological challenges. In this context, action researchers partner directly with stakeholders (communities, governance institutions, and work resource managers, etc. to embed a complexity frame of reference for decision making. In doing so, both researchers and stakeholders must strive to internalize not only "intellectual complexity" (knowing but also "lived complexity" (being and practicing. Four common conceptualizations of learning (explicit/tacit knowledge framework; unlearning selective exposure; conscious/competence learning matrix; and model of learning loops are integrated to provide a new framework that describes how learning takes place in complex systems. Deep reflection leading to transformational learning is required to foster the changes in mindset and behaviors needed to adopt a complexity frame of reference. We then present three broad frames of mind (openness, situational awareness, and a healthy respect for the restraint/action paradox, which each encompass a set of habits of mind, to create a useful framework that allows one to unlearn reductionist habits while adopting and embedding those more conducive to working in complex systems. Habits of mind provide useful heuristic tools to guide researchers and stakeholders through processes of participative planning and adaptive decision making in complex social-ecological systems.

  1. Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional assessment—Volume I. Ecological communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Gordon C.; Burris, Lucy; Carr, Natasha B.; Leinwand, Ian I.F.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

    2017-10-19

    The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) is to compile and synthesize regional datasets to facilitate evaluation of the cumulative effects of change agents on priority ecological communities and species. In particular, the REAs identify and map the distribution of communities and wildlife habitats at broad spatial extents and provide assessments of ecological conditions. The REAs also identify where and to what degree ecological resources are currently at risk from change agents, such as development, fire, invasive species, and climate change. The REAs can help managers identify and prioritize potential areas for conservation or restoration, assess cumulative effects as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, and inform landscape-level planning and management decisions for multiple uses of public lands.Management questions form the basis for the REA framework and were developed in conjunction with the BLM and other stakeholders. Conservation elements are communities and species that are of regional management concern. Core management questions relate to the key ecological attributes and change agents associated with each conservation element. Integrated management questions synthesize the results of the primary core management questions into overall landscape-level ranks for each conservation element.The ecological communities evaluated as conservation elements are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies; all grasslands; riparian and nonplaya wetlands; playa wetlands and saline lakes; and prairie streams and rivers. Species and species assemblages evaluated are the freshwater mussel assemblage, Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis), lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), snowy plover (Charadrius

  2. Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

  3. Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delcourt, H R; Delcourt, P A; Webb, T III

    1983-01-01

    Different environmental forcing functions influence vegetational patterns and processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the micro-scale (1 year to 5 x 10/sup 3/ years, 1 m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/) natural and anthropogenic disturbances affect establishment and succession of species populations. At the macro-scale (5 x 10/sup 3/ years to 10/sup 6/ years and 10/sup 6/m/sup 2/ to 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/) climatic changes influence regional vegetational processes that include migrations of species as well as displacement of ecosystems. Mega-scale phenomena such as plate tectonics, evolution of the biota and development of global patterns of vegetation occur on the time scale of > 10/sup 6/ years and over areas > 10/sup 12/m/sup 2/. Our knowledge of past vegetational changes resulting from Quaternary climatic change can be used to predict biotic responses to future climatic changes such as global warming that may be induced by increased carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentrations in the atmosphere. The time scale for future climatic warming may be much more rapid than that characterizing the early- to mid-Holocene, increasing the probability of rapid turnover in species composition, changes in local and regional dominance of important taxa, displacement of species ranges and local extinction of species. Integration of ecological and paleoecological perspectives on vegetational dynamics is fundamental to understanding and managing the biosphere.

  4. The Ecology of Early Settlement in Northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    The first volume presents new archaeological and ecological data and analyses on the relation between human subsistence and survival, and the natural history of North-Western Europe throughout the period 10000 – 6000 BC. The volume contains contributions from ecological oriented archaeologists...... and from the natural sciences, throwing new light on the physical and biotic/ecological conditions of relevance to the earliest settlement. Main themes are human subsistence, subsistence technology, ecology and food availability pertaining to the first humans, and demographic patterns among humans linked...

  5. Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Interaction type influences ecological network structure more than local abiotic conditions: evidence from endophytic and endolichenic fungi at a continental scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagnon, Pierre-Luc; U'Ren, Jana M; Miadlikowska, Jolanta; Lutzoni, François; Arnold, A Elizabeth

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the factors that shape community assembly remains one of the most enduring and important questions in modern ecology. Network theory can reveal rules of community assembly within and across study systems and suggest novel hypotheses regarding the formation and stability of communities. However, such studies generally face the challenge of disentangling the relative influence of factors such as interaction type and environmental conditions on shaping communities and associated networks. Endophytic and endolichenic symbioses, characterized by microbial species that occur within healthy plants and lichen thalli, represent some of the most ubiquitous interactions in nature. Fungi that engage in these symbioses are hyperdiverse, often horizontally transmitted, and functionally beneficial in many cases, and they represent the diversification of multiple phylogenetic groups. We evaluated six measures of ecological network structure for >4100 isolates of endophytic and endolichenic fungi collected systematically from five sites across North America. Our comparison of these co-occurring interactions in biomes ranging from tundra to subtropical forest showed that the type of interactions (i.e., endophytic vs. endolichenic) had a much more pronounced influence on network structure than did environmental conditions. In particular, endophytic networks were less nested, less connected, and more modular than endolichenic networks in all sites. The consistency of the network structure within each interaction type, independent of site, is encouraging for current efforts devoted to gathering metadata on ecological network structure at a global scale. We discuss several mechanisms potentially responsible for such patterns and draw attention to knowledge gaps in our understanding of networks for diverse interaction types.

  7. Ecological thresholds in the savanna landscape: developing a protocol for monitoring the change in composition and utilisation of large trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dave J Druce

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Acquiring greater understanding of the factors causing changes in vegetation structure -- particularly with the potential to cause regime shifts -- is important in adaptively managed conservation areas. Large trees (> or =5 m in height play an important ecosystem function, and are associated with a stable ecological state in the African savanna. There is concern that large tree densities are declining in a number of protected areas, including the Kruger National Park, South Africa. In this paper the results of a field study designed to monitor change in a savanna system are presented and discussed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Developing the first phase of a monitoring protocol to measure the change in tree species composition, density and size distribution, whilst also identifying factors driving change. A central issue is the discrete spatial distribution of large trees in the landscape, making point sampling approaches relatively ineffective. Accordingly, fourteen 10 m wide transects were aligned perpendicular to large rivers (3.0-6.6 km in length and eight transects were located at fixed-point photographic locations (1.0-1.6 km in length. Using accumulation curves, we established that the majority of tree species were sampled within 3 km. Furthermore, the key ecological drivers (e.g. fire, herbivory, drought and disease which influence large tree use and impact were also recorded within 3 km. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The technique presented provides an effective method for monitoring changes in large tree abundance, size distribution and use by the main ecological drivers across the savanna landscape. However, the monitoring of rare tree species would require individual marking approaches due to their low densities and specific habitat requirements. Repeat sampling intervals would vary depending on the factor of concern and proposed management mitigation. Once a monitoring protocol has been identified and evaluated, the next

  8. Ecological mechanisms linking protected areas to surrounding lands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Andrew J; DeFries, Ruth

    2007-06-01

    Land use is expanding and intensifying in the unprotected lands surrounding many of the world's protected areas. The influence of this land use change on ecological processes is poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to draw on ecological theory to provide a synthetic framework for understanding how land use change around protected areas may alter ecological processes and biodiversity within protected areas and to provide a basis for identifying scientifically based management alternatives. We first present a conceptual model of protected areas embedded within larger ecosystems that often include surrounding human land use. Drawing on case studies in this Invited Feature, we then explore a comprehensive set of ecological mechanisms by which land use on surrounding lands may influence ecological processes and biodiversity within reserves. These mechanisms involve changes in ecosystem size, with implications for minimum dynamic area, species-area effect, and trophic structure; altered flows of materials and disturbances into and out of reserves; effects on crucial habitats for seasonal and migration movements and population source/sink dynamics; and exposure to humans through hunting, poaching, exotics species, and disease. These ecological mechanisms provide a basis for assessing the vulnerability of protected areas to land use. They also suggest criteria for designing regional management to sustain protected areas in the context of surrounding human land use. These design criteria include maximizing the area of functional habitats, identifying and maintaining ecological process zones, maintaining key migration and source habitats, and managing human proximity and edge effects.

  9. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilberman, D.; Liu, Xuemei; Roland-Holst, D.; Sunding, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  10. Effect of ecological restoration and climate change on ecosystems: a case study in the Three-Rivers Headwater Region, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-06-01

    The Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) is the headwater of the Yangtze River Basin (YARB), Yellow River Basin (YRB), and Lancang River Basin (LRB); it is known as China's 'Water Tower' owing to its important supply of freshwater. In order to assess ecosystem changes in the TRHR during 2000-2012, we systematically and comprehensively evaluated a combination of model simulation results and actual observational data. The results showed the following: (1) Ecosystem pattern was relatively stable during 2000-2010, with a slight decrease in farmland and desert areas, and a slight increase in grassland and wetland/water-body areas. (2) A warmer and wetter climate, and ecological engineering, caused the vegetation cover and productivity to significantly improve. (3) Precipitation was the main controlling factor for streamflow. A significant increase in precipitation during 2000-2012 resulted in an obvious increase in annual and seasonal streamflow. Glacier melting also contributed to the streamflow increase. (4) The total amount of soil conservation increased slightly from 2000 to 2012. The increase in precipitation caused rainfall erosivity to increase, which enhanced the intensity of soil erosion. The decrease in wind speed decreased wind erosion and the frequency of sandstorms. (5) The overall habitat quality in the TRHR was stable between 2000 and 2010, and the spatial pattern exhibited obvious heterogeneity. In some counties that included nature reserves, habitat quality was slightly higher in 2010 than in 2000, which reflected the effectiveness of the ecological restoration. Overall, the aforementioned ecosystem changes are the combined results of ecological restoration and climate change, and they are likely a local and temporary improvement, rather than a comprehensive and fundamental change. Therefore, more investments and efforts are needed to preserve natural ecosystems.

  11. A Landscape Indicator Approach to the Identification and Articulation of the Ecological Consequences of Land Cover Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1970-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slonecker, Terrence

    2008-01-01

    The advancement of geographic science in the area of land surface status and trends and land cover change is at the core of the current geographic scientific research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (McMahon and others, 2005). Perhaps the least developed or articulated aspects of USGS land change science have been the identification and analysis of the ecological consequences of land cover change. Changes in land use and land cover significantly affect the ability of ecosystems to provide essential ecological goods and services, which, in turn, affect the economic, public health, and social benefits that these ecosystems provide. One of the great scientific challenges for geographic science is to understand and calibrate the effects of land use and land cover change and the complex interaction between human and biotic systems at a variety of natural, geographic, and political scales. Understanding the dynamics of land surface change requires an increased understanding of the complex nature of human-environmental systems and will require a suite of scientific tools that include traditional geographic data and analysis methods, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), as well as innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of complex systems. One such approach that has gained much recent scientific attention is the landscape indicator, or landscape assessment, approach, which has been developed with the emergence of the science of landscape ecology.

  12. Recent changes in continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa region, and their association with circulation patterns

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2016-05-30

    A long-term (1960-2013) assessment of the variability of continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was undertaken. Monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) (TS3.22 version) were used to compute the Johansson Continentality Index (JCI) and the Marsz Oceanity Index (MOI). In addition, the De Martonne index and the Pinna index were employed to assess recent changes in aridity conditions. All indices revealed a statistically significant increase in continental influences over the region, particularly in the Nile Basin and the Fertile Crescent. For aridity, the results suggested a generally statistically insignificant increase, with the most rapid changes occurring over the most humid regions (i.e. the Ethiopian Highlands and the Fertile Crescent). In order to explain the observed changes in the continentality and aridity conditions, we assessed the relationship between aridity and continentality indices and a wide range of large-scale circulation patterns. Results indicate that the spatial variability of continentality (as well as aridity) was closely coupled with the Atlantic modes of variability, e.g. the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, compared to those of the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The results of this work highlight change processes in 2 important climate features in one of the hottest regions on Earth. Improving our understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate continentality and aridity has implications for a diversity of socio-political, economic, hydrological, and ecological activities in the MENA region.

  13. Recent changes in continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa region, and their association with circulation patterns

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.; McCabe, Matthew; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Robaa, Sayed M.; Lopez-Moreno, Juan I.

    2016-01-01

    A long-term (1960-2013) assessment of the variability of continentality and aridity conditions over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region was undertaken. Monthly gridded temperature and precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) (TS3.22 version) were used to compute the Johansson Continentality Index (JCI) and the Marsz Oceanity Index (MOI). In addition, the De Martonne index and the Pinna index were employed to assess recent changes in aridity conditions. All indices revealed a statistically significant increase in continental influences over the region, particularly in the Nile Basin and the Fertile Crescent. For aridity, the results suggested a generally statistically insignificant increase, with the most rapid changes occurring over the most humid regions (i.e. the Ethiopian Highlands and the Fertile Crescent). In order to explain the observed changes in the continentality and aridity conditions, we assessed the relationship between aridity and continentality indices and a wide range of large-scale circulation patterns. Results indicate that the spatial variability of continentality (as well as aridity) was closely coupled with the Atlantic modes of variability, e.g. the Eastern Atlantic pattern and the Atlantic Meridional Mode, compared to those of the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The results of this work highlight change processes in 2 important climate features in one of the hottest regions on Earth. Improving our understanding of the spatio-temporal characteristics of climate continentality and aridity has implications for a diversity of socio-political, economic, hydrological, and ecological activities in the MENA region.

  14. Assessing Ecological Flow Needs and Risks for Springs and Baseflow Streams With Growth and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, A. E.; Stevens, L. E.

    2008-12-01

    Ecological flow needs assessments are beginning to become an important part of regulated river management, but are more challenging for unregulated rivers. Water needs for ecosystems are greater than just consumptive use by riparian and aquatic vegetation and include the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of flows and the depth and annual fluctuations of groundwater levels of baseflow supported streams. An ecological flow needs assessment was adapted and applied to an unregulated, baseflow dependent river in the arid to semi-arid Southwestern U.S. A separate process was developed to determine groundwater sources potentially at risk from climate, land management, or groundwater use changes in a large regional groundwater basin in the same semi-arid region. In 2007 and 2008, workshops with ecological, cultural, and physical experts from agencies, universities, tribes, and other organizations were convened. Flow-ecology response functions were developed with either conceptual or actual information for a baseflow dependent river, and scoring systems were developed to assign values to categories of risks to groundwater sources in a large groundwater basin. A reduction of baseflow to the river was predicted to lead to a decline in cottonwood and willow tree abundance, decreases in riparian forest diversity, and increases in non-native tree species, such as tamarisk. These types of forest vegetation changes would likely cause reductions or loss of some bird species. Loss of riffle habitat through declines in groundwater discharge and the associated river levels would likely lead to declines in native fish and amphibian species. A research agenda was developed to develop techniques to monitor, assess and hopefully better manage the aquifers supporting the baseflow dependent river to prevent potential threshold responses of the ecosystems. The scoring system for categories of risk was applied to four systems (aquifers, springs, standing water bodies, and streams) in

  15. Hurricane Impacts on Ecological Services and Economic Values of Coastal Urban Forest: A Case Study of Pensacola, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    As urbanized areas continue to grow and green spaces dwindle, the importance of urban forests increases for both ecologically derived health benefits and for their potential to mitigate climate change. This study examined pre- and post- hurricane conditions of Pensacola's urban f...

  16. Insect herbivores drive real-time ecological and evolutionary change in plant populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A; Hastings, Amy P; Johnson, Marc T J; Maron, John L; Salminen, Juha-Pekka

    2012-10-05

    Insect herbivores are hypothesized to be major factors affecting the ecology and evolution of plants. We tested this prediction by suppressing insects in replicated field populations of a native plant, Oenothera biennis, which reduced seed predation, altered interspecific competitive dynamics, and resulted in rapid evolutionary divergence. Comparative genotyping and phenotyping of nearly 12,000 O. biennis individuals revealed that in plots protected from insects, resistance to herbivores declined through time owing to changes in flowering time and lower defensive ellagitannins in fruits, whereas plant competitive ability increased. This independent real-time evolution of plant resistance and competitive ability in the field resulted from the relaxation of direct selective effects of insects on plant defense and through indirect effects due to reduced herbivory on plant competitors.

  17. Urban ecology and sustainable building in a Danish era of public de-regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jesper Ole; Gram-Hanssen, Kirsten

    , to which extent the changes should be seen as a result of respectively the right-wing government, or international trends in environmental management and public regulation – as characterised by the concepts of “Ecological Modernisation” and “New Public Management”. The recent development in the sector......The article describes the changed conditions for sustainable building in Denmark in the last decade and describes the different actors and there relations during this period. It also discusses to what extent the new right-wing government, which came to power in 2001, initiated these changes...... extent been based on public subsidies, and on grass-root activities. The new government however, has changed many of the previously state-supported conditions for sustainable building, and have escalated and narrowed a policy based on the principles of New Public Management. The discussions will include...

  18. Environmental change in a Mediterranean salt marsh wetland: ecological drivers of halophytes diversity along flooding frequency gradients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia María Rodríguez-González

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Coastal wetlands are among most threatened ecosystems, owing to the intense human activity concentrated in shoreline areas together with the expected sea level rise resultant from climate change. Salt marshes are wetlands which are inundated twice daily by the sea, thus tightly dependent on frequency and duration of submergence. Identifying the factors that determine the diversity, distribution and abundance of halophyte species in salt marshes will help retaining their conservation status and adopt anticipate management measures, and this will ultimately contribute to preserve marshland biodiversity and ecological services. Reserva Natural de Castro Marim e Vila Real de Santo António (RNSCMVRSA is a natural reserve located in South Eastern Portugal, comprising the tidal area of Guadiana River mouth. In spite of their great ecological value, salt marsh ecosystems in this region have suffered intense anthropic disturbance, namely hydrologic alterations and vegetation removal to gain soils for agriculture and salt intensive production. The present study aimed at characterizing the halophyte diversity in the RNSCMVRSA salt marshes and determining their major ecological correlates. The end-point is to implement, afterward, a sustainable cultivation of autochthonous halophyte plants, with economic value, in the abandoned saltpans and degraded rangelands. This project will contribute to the conservation of halophyte diversity, promote environmental requalification, and provide an economic alternative for local populations, enabling the reduction of unregulated harvest of halophyte plant populations. Field sampling strategy included a preliminary survey of local vegetation diversity and floristic inventories of halophyte communities in plots established across the existing environmental heterogeneity in order to span the whole variation gradients of the species presence and abundance. The abiotic characterization of halophyte communities included a

  19. Effects of Changes in Lugu Lake Water Quality on Schizothorax Yunnansis Ecological Habitat Based on HABITAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Mynnet, Arthur

    Schizothorax Yunnansis is an unique fish species only existing in Lugu Lake, which is located in the southwestern China. The simulation and research on Schizothorax Yunnansis habitat environment have a vital significance to protect this rare fish. With the development of the tourism industry, there bring more pressure on the environmental protection. The living environment of Schizothorax Yunnansis is destroyed seriously because the water quality is suffering the sustaining pollution of domestic sewage from the peripheral villages. This paper analyzes the relationship between water quality change and Schizothorax Yunnansis ecological habitat and evalutes Schizothorax Yunnansis's ecological habitat impact based on HABITAT model. The results show that when the TP concentration in Lugu Lake does not exceed Schizothorax Yunnansis's survival threshold, Schizothorax Yunnansis can get more nutrients and the suitable habitat area for itself is increased. Conversely, it can lead to TP toxicity in the Schizothorax Yunnansis and even death. Therefore, unsuitable habitat area for Schizothorax Yunnansis is increased. It can be seen from the results that HABITAT model can assist in ecological impact assessment studies by translating results of hydrological, water quality models into effects on the natural environment and human society.

  20. Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, S. J.; Haberl, H.

    2012-04-01

    Long term socio-ecological research across temporal and spatial scales Simron Jit Singh and Helmut Haberl Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Austria Understanding trajectories of change in coupled socio-ecological (or human-environment) systems requires monitoring and analysis at several spatial and temporal scales. Long-term ecosystem research (LTER) is a strand of research coupled with observation systems and infrastructures (LTER sites) aimed at understanding how global change affects ecosystems around the world. In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that sustainability concerns require extending this approach to long-term socio-ecological research, i.e. a more integrated perspective that focuses on interaction processes between society and ecosystems over longer time periods. Thus, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research, abbreviated LTSER, aims at observing, analyzing, understanding and modelling of changes in coupled socio-ecological systems over long periods of time. Indeed, the magnitude of the problems we now face is an outcome of a much longer process, accelerated by industrialisation since the nineteenth century. The paper will provide an overview of a book (in press) on LTSER with particular emphasis on 'socio-ecological transitions' in terms of material, energy and land use dynamics across temporal and spatial scales.

  1. Ecological economics and literary communication: Axes of discourse ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ecological economics and literary communication: Axes of discourse in Ifeanyi Izuka's Travails of the black gold. ... and environmental messages that affect the econiche, and for exploring human conditions and values as characters react to extraordinary economic and ecological situations that have universal application.

  2. Solar energy and ecosystem. ; Simulation system for the ecological system (Bios-3 as an example). Taiyo energy to ecosystem. ; Seitaikei mogi system (Bios-3 wo rei to shite)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nitta, K [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan)

    1992-11-30

    The present report gives inspectional opinions about the Bios-3 which is a Russian artificial ecological system and explains the simulation system for the ecological system. The Bios-3 installed in a semi-underground dome of Biophysics Research Institute, Krasnoyarsk is a stainless steel-made enclosed box which is 120m[sup 2] and 3m in total area and height, respectively. Such an internal volume is structurally divided into two botanical cultivation rooms, oxygen supply use chlorella cultivation room and living room where the human living experiment can be done without interruption during half a year. It is judged that the ecological environment can not sufficiently condition both the autotrophic substances which are plants and mosses, and hetrotrophic ones which are animals and microbes. As for the conditional control of ecological system, neither BS-II, USA nor Bios-3 can arbitrarily change the environmental condition. However by utilizing buffers, air blowers and other physico-chemical controllers, development must be done of a new simulator which can change the environment, and elucidate the correlation between the environment and biological beings. That simulator may play an important role also for preparing the IGBP's global model. 5 figs.

  3. Styles of making a living and ecological change on the Fon and Adja plateaux in South Bénin, ca. 1600-1990

    OpenAIRE

    Wartena, D.

    2006-01-01

    This study is a comparative analysis of the joint development of the Fon and Adja styles of making a living as well as the ecological changes between the two adjacent plateaux in South Bénin on which they live. The period of analysis is between ca. 1600 and 1990. The South Béninese plateaux are usually described as a homogeneous category. However, popular opinion also holds that the Fon plateau is ecologically more degraded than the other plateaux, and that the Fon are socially more organised...

  4. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

    2016-01-19

    Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

  5. Environmental determinants of the old oaks in wood-pastures from a changing traditional social-ecological system of Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moga, Cosmin Ioan; Samoilă, Ciprian; Öllerer, Kinga; Băncilă, Raluca I; Réti, Kinga-Olga; Craioveanu, Cristina; Poszet, Szilárd; Rákosy, László; Hartel, Tibor

    2016-05-01

    Large, old trees are keystone ecological structures, their decline having disproportional ecological consequences. There is virtually no information available regarding the status and occurrence of old trees in traditional cultural landscapes from Eastern Europe. In this study, we explore the environmental determinants of the old oaks found in wood-pastures from a changing traditional rural landscape from Central Romania. Both the old oaks and the wood-pastures harboring them have exceptional cultural, historical, and ecological values, yet are vulnerable to land-use change. We surveyed 41 wood-pastures from Southern Transylvania and counted the old oaks in them. We then related the number of old oaks from these wood-pastures to a set of local and landscape level variables related to wood-pastures. We found 490 old oaks in 25 wood-pastures. The number of old oaks was positively related to the size of the wood-pasture and the amount of pasture and forest around it (500 m buffer), and negatively related to the proximity of the village. Furthermore, we found a significant interaction between the effects of sheepfolds in the wood-pasture and the size of the wood-pasture on the number of old trees, indicating a negative influence of sheepfolds on the number of old trees in smaller sized wood-pastures. There is an increasing risk for losing old trees in the traditional cultural landscapes due to the lack of formal recognition of these trees. Therefore, while presenting the positive example of local initiatives and citizen science, we argue for an urgent development and implementation of conservation policies along with education strategies targeting the old trees and rural communities from the changing traditional cultural landscapes of Eastern Europe.

  6. Herdsmen’s Adaptation to Climate Changes and Subsequent Impacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingcheng Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate change. This study analyzed the effects of herdsmen’s adaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding, income, and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterization scheme. The empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP model on the basis of the household survey data in the Three-River Source Region, an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province, China. Then, the land surface parameterization process is analyzed based on the agent-based model (ABM, which involves the herdsmen’s adaptation measures on climate change, and it also provides reference for the land surface change projection. The result shows that the climate change adaptation measures will have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsman’s livestock and income as well as future land surface dynamics. Some suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning.

  7. Simulating Spatial-Temporal Changes of Land-Use Based on Ecological Redline Restrictions and Landscape Driving Factors: A Case Study in Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zimu Jia

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available A change in the usage of land is influenced by a variety of driving factors and policies on spatial constraints. On the basis of considering the conventional natural and socio-economic indicators, the landscape pattern indicators were considered as new driving forces in the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S model to simulate spatial and temporal changes of land-use in Beijing. Compared with traditional spatial restrictions characterized by small and isolated areas, such as forest parks and natural reserves, the ecological redline areas increase the spatial integrity and connectivity of ecological and environmental functions at a regional scale, which were used to analyze the distribution patterns and behaviors of land use conversion in the CLUE-S model. The observed results indicate that each simulation scenario has a Kappa coefficient of more than 0.76 beyond the threshold value of 0.6 and represents high agreements between the actual and simulated land use maps. The simulation scenarios including landscape pattern indicators are more accurate than those without consideration of these new driving forces. The simulation results from using ecological redline areas as space constraints have the highest precision compared with the unrestricted and traditionally restricted scenarios. Therefore, the CLUE-S model based on the restriction of ecological redline and the consideration of landscape pattern factors has shown better effectiveness in simulating the future land use change. The conversion of land use types mainly occurred between construction land and cropland during the period from 2010 to 2020. Meanwhile, a large number of grasslands are being changed to construction lands in the mountain towns of northwest Beijing and large quantities of water bodies have disappeared and been replaced by construction lands due to rapid urbanization in the eastern and southern plains. To improve the sustainable use of

  8. Monitoring Ecological and Environmental Changes in Coastal Wetlands in the Yellow River Delta from 1987 to 2010 Using Remote Sensing Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Kun; Zhao, Dong; Gan, Fuping; Xiao, Chenchao

    2016-04-01

    Many wetlands in the world have degraded rapidly in recent years, especially in China. The Yellow River Delta (YRD) is one of the largest deltas in China. The YRD Nature Reserve is one of China's most complete, broadest, and youngest wetland ecological systems in the warm-temperate zone. Most previous studies have placed particular emphasis on ecological environment or landscape of the YRD based on the distribution of wetlands. In recent years, with the rapid development of the city of Dongying, located in the YRD, the impacts of human activities are increasingly significant, so that monitoring changes in the wetlands has become especially important. In this research, we applied an improved Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach to wetland classification based on feature band set construction and optimization using seven Landsat images. By extracting waterlines, classifying wetlands and deriving landscape parameters, we have achieved high-frequency comprehensive monitoring of the wetlands in the YRD over a relatively long period. It offers a better estimate of wetland change trends than certain previous studies. From 1987 to 2010, the natural waterline primarily experienced erosion due to precipitation abnormalities, as well as coastal exploitation, as the co-analyzed meteorological data suggest. Meanwhile, the artificial waterline barely changed. The wetland area decreased rapidly from approximately 4,607 km2 to 2,714 km2 between 1987 and 2000. Ecological resilience and landscape diversity also decreased significantly during this period. The major impact factors were most likely urbanization, population expansion and the exploitation of the wetlands. After 2000, ecological resilience exhibited a positive trend. However, because newly built aquatic farms and salt works caused serious damages and threatened the natural beach landscape, the landscape fragmentation of muddy and sandy beaches increased after 2000. According to the results, more effective policies and

  9. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  10. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-26

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  11. The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Victor; Brown, Calum; Holzhauer, Sascha; Vulturius, Gregor; Rounsevell, Mark D A

    2017-07-01

    Adaptation is necessary to cope with or take advantage of the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. Relatively little is known about how successful these decisions are likely to be in meeting demands for ecosystem services in an uncertain future. We explore adaptation to global change in the forestry sector using CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that represents large-scale land-use dynamics, based on the demand and supply of ecosystem services. Future impacts and adaptation within the Swedish forestry sector were simulated for scenarios of socio-economic change (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) and climatic change (Representative Concentration Pathways, for three climate models), between 2010 and 2100. Substantial differences were found in the competitiveness and coping ability of land owners implementing different management strategies through time. Generally, multi-objective management was found to provide the best basis for adaptation. Across large regions, however, a combination of management strategies was better at meeting ecosystem service demands. Results also show that adaptive capacity evolves through time in response to external (global) drivers and interactions between individual actors. This suggests that process-based models are more appropriate for the study of autonomous adaptation and future adaptive and coping capacities than models based on indicators, discrete time snapshots or exogenous proxies. Nevertheless, a combination of planned and autonomous adaptation by institutions and forest owners is likely to be more successful than either group acting alone. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Xenon changes under power-burst conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamond, D.J.

    1983-01-01

    Under ordinary operating conditions the xenon concentration in a reactor core can change significantly in times on the order of hours. Core transients of safety significance are much more rapid and hence calculations are done with xenon concentration held constant. However, in certain transients (such as reactivity initiated accidents) there is a very large power surge and the question arises as to whether under these circumstances the xenon concentration could change. This would be particularly important if the xenon were reduced thereby tending to make the accident autocatalytic. The objective of the present study is to quantify this effect to see if it could be important

  13. Precipitation alters interactions in a grassland ecological community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deguines, Nicolas; Brashares, Justin S; Prugh, Laura R

    2017-03-01

    Climate change is transforming precipitation regimes world-wide. Changes in precipitation regimes are known to have powerful effects on plant productivity, but the consequences of these shifts for the dynamics of ecological communities are poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders our ability to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Precipitation may affect fauna through direct effects on physiology, behaviour or demography, through plant-mediated indirect effects, or by modifying interactions among species. In this paper, we examined the response of a semi-arid ecological community to a fivefold change in precipitation over 7 years. We examined the effects of precipitation on the dynamics of a grassland ecosystem in central California from 2007 to 2013. We conducted vegetation surveys, pitfall trapping of invertebrates, visual surveys of lizards and capture-mark-recapture surveys of rodents on 30 plots each year. We used structural equation modelling to evaluate the direct, indirect and modifying effects of precipitation on plants, ants, beetles, orthopterans, kangaroo rats, ground squirrels and lizards. We found pervasive effects of precipitation on the ecological community. Although precipitation increased plant biomass, direct effects on fauna were often stronger than plant-mediated effects. In addition, precipitation altered the sign or strength of consumer-resource and facilitative interactions among the faunal community such that negative or neutral interactions became positive or vice versa with increasing precipitation. These findings indicate that precipitation influences ecological communities in multiple ways beyond its recognized effects on primary productivity. Stochastic variation in precipitation may weaken the average strength of biotic interactions over time, thereby increasing ecosystem stability and resilience to climate change. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological

  14. Overview of climate information needs for ecological effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peer, R.L.

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. The report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. Some agricultural models and statistical methods are also discussed. The weather input data requirements, weather simulation methods, and other model characteristics relevant to climate change research are described for a selected number of models. The ecological models are classified as biome, ecosystem, or tree models; the ecosystem models are further subdivided into species dynamics or process models. In general, ecological modelers have had to rely on readily available meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall. Although models are becoming more sophisticated in their treatment of weather and require more kinds of data (such as wind, solar radiation, or potential evapotranspiration), modelers are still hampered by a lack of data for many applications. Future directions of ecological effects models and the climate variables that will be required by the models are discussed.

  15. Coevolutionary ecological economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallis, Giorgos [ICREA Researcher, ICTA, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona, ETSE, QC/3095, 08193 Bellatera, Barcelona (Spain); Norgaard, Richard B. [Energy and Resources Group, University of California at Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3050 (United States)

    2010-02-15

    This paper maps a coevolutionary research agenda for ecological economics. At an epistemological level coevolution offers a powerful logic for transcending environmental and social determinisms and developing a cross-disciplinary approach in the study of socio-ecological systems. We identify four consistent stories emerging out of coevolutionary studies in ecological economics, concerning: environmental degradation and development failure in peripheral regions; the lock-in of unsustainable production-consumption patterns; the vicious cycle between human efforts to control undesirable micro-organisms and the evolution of these organisms; and the adaptive advantages of other-regarding, cooperative behaviors and institutions. We identify challenges in the conceptualization of coevolutionary relationships in relation to: the interaction between different hierarchical levels of evolution; the role of space and social power; uneven rates of change and crises. We conclude with the political implications of a coevolutionary perspective based on the premises of pragmatism. (author)

  16. Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponciano, José M; Taper, Mark L; Dennis, Brian

    2018-05-01

    Change points in the dynamics of animal abundances have extensively been recorded in historical time series records. Little attention has been paid to the theoretical dynamic consequences of such change-points. Here we propose a change-point model of stochastic population dynamics. This investigation embodies a shift of attention from the problem of detecting when a change will occur, to another non-trivial puzzle: using ecological theory to understand and predict the post-breakpoint behavior of the population dynamics. The proposed model and the explicit expressions derived here predict and quantify how density dependence modulates the influence of the pre-breakpoint parameters into the post-breakpoint dynamics. Time series transitioning from one stationary distribution to another contain information about where the process was before the change-point, where is it heading and how long it will take to transition, and here this information is explicitly stated. Importantly, our results provide a direct connection of the strength of density dependence with theoretical properties of dynamic systems, such as the concept of resilience. Finally, we illustrate how to harness such information through maximum likelihood estimation for state-space models, and test the model robustness to widely different forms of compensatory dynamics. The model can be used to estimate important quantities in the theory and practice of population recovery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS AND LITERARY COMMUNICATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    development between standard economic and ecological theories. ... environmental issues that affect the econiche, and for exploring human conditions and ... about medium, about intention and its signaling via contextualization cues—―are.

  18. Cladocera from bottom deposits as an indicator of changes in climate and ecological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolova, L. A.

    2018-01-01

    Diatoms, pollen, and remains of higher vegetation are used as indicator groups in paleoecological studies. Using certain groups of zoological indicators such as planktonic and benthic organisms (Ostracoda, Cladocera, Chironomidae) has recently become popular in paleolimnology and paleoecology. This study aims to estimate the possibilities, benefits, problems and prospects of Cladocera use in the composition of zoothanatocoenosis of lakes’ sediments as one of the biological indicators in paleoenvironmental studies and paleoreconstructions of abiotic conditions of the past.

  19. Social-Ecological Thresholds in a Changing Boreal Landscape: Insights from Cree Knowledge of the Lesser Slave Lake Region of Alberta, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brenda L. Parlee

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Drawing on the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK of the Lesser Slave Lake Cree, this paper shares understanding of how resource development has affected water, fish, forests, and wildlife as well as the well-being of Cree communities in the Lesser Slave Lake region of Alberta, Canada. In addition to descriptive observations of change, the narratives point to social-ecological thresholds or tipping points in the relationship of Cree harvesters to local lands and resources. Specifically, the study speaks to the echoing effects of ecological loss and degradation on traditional livelihood practices over the last 100 years highlighting the complexity of cumulative effects as well as the challenges of balancing resource development in the region with alternative land uses including those valued by Alberta's Aboriginal peoples.

  20. Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, P.L.; Mallek, E.J.; King, R.J.; Schmutz, J.A.; Bollinger, K.S.; Derksen, D.V.

    2008-01-01

    Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

  1. Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock

  2. Trends in ecological research during the last three decades--a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmel, Yohay; Kent, Rafi; Bar-Massada, Avi; Blank, Lior; Liberzon, Jonathan; Nezer, Oded; Sapir, Gill; Federman, Roy

    2013-01-01

    It is thought that the science of ecology has experienced conceptual shifts in recent decades, chiefly from viewing nature as static and balanced to a conception of constantly changing, unpredictable, complex ecosystems. Here, we ask if these changes are reflected in actual ecological research over the last 30 years. We surveyed 750 articles from the entire pool of ecological literature and 750 articles from eight leading journals. Each article was characterized according to its type, ecological domain, and applicability, and major topics. We found that, in contrast to its common image, ecology is still mostly a study of single species (70% of the studies); while ecosystem and community studies together comprise only a quarter of ecological research. Ecological science is somewhat conservative in its topics of research (about a third of all topics changed significantly through time), as well as in its basic methodologies and approaches. However, the growing proportion of problem-solving studies (from 9% in the 1980s to 20% in the 2000 s) may represent a major transition in ecological science in the long run.

  3. Ecological public health and climate change policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, George P

    2010-01-01

    The fact that health and disease are products of a complex interaction of factors has long been recognized in public health circles. More recently, the term 'ecological public health' has been used to characterize an era underpinned by the paradigm that, when it comes to health and well-being, 'everything matters'. The challenge for policy makers is one of navigating this complexity to deliver better health and greater equality in health. Recent work in Scotland has been concerned to develop a strategic approach to environment and health. This seeks to embrace complexity within that agenda and recognize a more subtle relationship between health and place but remain practical and relevant to a more traditional hazard-focused environmental health approach. The Good Places, Better Health initiative is underpinned by a new problem-framing approach using a conceptual model developed for that purpose. This requires consideration of a wider social, behavioural etc, context. The approach is also used to configure the core systems of the strategy which gather relevant intelligence, subject it to a process of evaluation and direct its outputs to a broad policy constituency extending beyond health and environment. This paper highlights that an approach, conceived and developed to deliver better health and greater equality in health through action on physical environment, also speaks to a wider public health agenda. Specifically it offers a way to help bridge a gap between paradigm and policy in public health. The author considers that with development, a systems-based approach with close attention to problem-framing/situational modelling may prove useful in orchestrating what is a necessarily complex policy response to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

  4. Effects of Climate Change in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    The report analyzes the vulnerability of Swedish ecological and technical systems to predicted changes in the global climate. The analysis shows, for example, that plant ecosystems will be shifted northward and that their species composition will change. Technical systems, which are normally adapted to local conditions, may have to be modified to satisfy different design parameters. The report examines a few selected systems, with no attempt at being comprehensive. 44 refs

  5. Ecological and evolutionary effects of stickleback on community structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Des Roches

    Full Text Available Species' ecology and evolution can have strong effects on communities. Both may change concurrently when species colonize a new ecosystem. We know little, however, about the combined effects of ecological and evolutionary change on community structure. We simultaneously examined the effects of top-predator ecology and evolution on freshwater community parameters using recently evolved generalist and specialist ecotypes of three-spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus. We used a mesocosm experiment to directly examine the effects of ecological (fish presence and density and evolutionary (phenotypic diversity and specialization factors on community structure at lower trophic levels. We evaluated zooplankton biomass and composition, periphyton and phytoplankton chlorophyll-a concentration, and net primary production among treatments containing different densities and diversities of stickleback. Our results showed that both ecological and evolutionary differences in the top-predator affect different aspects of community structure and composition. Community structure, specifically the abundance of organisms at each trophic level, was affected by stickleback presence and density, whereas composition of zooplankton was influenced by stickleback diversity and specialization. Primary productivity, in terms of chlorophyll-a concentration and net primary production was affected by ecological but not evolutionary factors. Our results stress the importance of concurrently evaluating both changes in density and phenotypic diversity on the structure and composition of communities.

  6. PERSONAL VALUES, BELIEFS, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK PERCEPTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    A mail survey on ecological risk perception was administered in the summer of 2002 to a randomized sample of the lay public and to selected risk professionals at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). The ranking of 24 ecological risk items, from global climate change...

  7. Historical changes in northeastern US bee pollinators related to shared ecological traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartomeus, Ignasi; Ascher, John S; Gibbs, Jason; Danforth, Bryan N; Wagner, David L; Hedtke, Shannon M; Winfree, Rachael

    2013-03-19

    Pollinators such as bees are essential to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. However, despite concerns about a global pollinator crisis, long-term data on the status of bee species are limited. We present a long-term study of relative rates of change for an entire regional bee fauna in the northeastern United States, based on >30,000 museum records representing 438 species. Over a 140-y period, aggregate native species richness weakly decreased, but richness declines were significant only for the genus Bombus. Of 187 native species analyzed individually, only three declined steeply, all of these in the genus Bombus. However, there were large shifts in community composition, as indicated by 56% of species showing significant changes in relative abundance over time. Traits associated with a declining relative abundance include small dietary and phenological breadth and large body size. In addition, species with lower latitudinal range boundaries are increasing in relative abundance, a finding that may represent a response to climate change. We show that despite marked increases in human population density and large changes in anthropogenic land use, aggregate native species richness declines were modest outside of the genus Bombus. At the same time, we find that certain ecological traits are associated with declines in relative abundance. These results should help target conservation efforts focused on maintaining native bee abundance and diversity and therefore the important ecosystems services that they provide.

  8. How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaugrand, Grégory; Kirby, Richard R.

    2018-01-01

    In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible—that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

  9. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  10. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  11. Unpaid ecological costs related to emissions in the air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, Sylvain; Bottin, Anne; Nauroy, Frederic; Boitard, Corinne; Bird, Geoffrey; David, Michel; Greffet, Pierre; Mordant, Guillaume; Moreau, Sylvain; Nirascou, Francoise; Le Moullec, Aurelie; Berthier, Jean-Pierre; Hassan, Marie-Elizabeth; Curri-Lemaitre, Elen; Lagarenne, Christine; Devaux, Jeremy; Nicklaus, Doris; Puydarrieux, Philippe; Vanoli, Andre; Schucht, Simone

    2014-05-01

    This study proposes an analysis of unpaid ecological terms based on the use of new economic indicators related to sustainable development (going beyond the GDP, adjusted accounting aggregates, accounting unpaid ecological costs), an analysis of unpaid ecological costs related to climate change (context, used results and data, definitions of trajectories associated with greenhouse gas emissions, cost to be applied to emissions to get rid of, assessment of unpaid ecological costs), and an analysis of unpaid ecological costs related to air pollution (objectives, standard to be adopted, towards more ambitious emission reduction and re-assessed costs, unpaid ecological costs in 2010)

  12. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The

  13. Missing ecology: integrating ecological perspectives with the social-ecological system framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graham Epstein

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The social-ecological systems framework was designed to provide a common research tool for interdisciplinary investigations of social-ecological systems. However, its origin in institutional studies of the commons belies its interdisciplinary ambitions and highlights its relatively limited attention to ecology and natural scientific knowledge. This paper considers the biophysical components of the framework and its epistemological foundations as it relates to the incorporation of knowledge from the natural sciences. It finds that the mixture of inductive and deductive reasoning associated with socially-oriented investigations of these systems is lacking on the ecological side, which relies upon induction alone. As a result the paper proposes the addition of a seventh core sub-system to the social-ecological systems framework, ecological rules, which would allow scholars to explicitly incorporate knowledge from the natural sciences for deductive reasoning. The paper shows, through an instructive case study, how the addition of ecological rules can provide a more nuanced description of the factors that contribute to outcomes in social-ecological systems.

  14. Reassessing Rogers' necessary and sufficient conditions of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jeanne C