WorldWideScience

Sample records for changing climate conditions

  1. Definitions of climate and climate change under varying external conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Werndl

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Commonly, definitions of climate are endorsed where the external conditions are held constant. This paper argues that these definitions risk being empirically void because in reality the external conditions vary. As a consequence, analogous definitions for varying external conditions are explored with help of the recently developed theory of non-autonomous dynamical systems, and the similarities and differences between the cases of constant and varying external conditions are discussed. It is argued that there are analogous definitions for varying external conditions which are preferable to the definitions where the external conditions are held constant. In this context, a novel definition is proposed (namely, climate as the distribution over time under a regime of varying external conditions, which is argued to be promising.

  2. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change.

  3. Future Risks of Pest Species under Changing Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa; Ziemacki, Jasmin; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Borgemeister, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Most agricultural pests are poikilothermic species expected to respond to climate change. Currently, they are a tremendous burden because of the high losses they inflict on crops and livestock. Smallholder farmers in developing countries of Africa are likely to suffer more under these changes than farmers in the developed world because more severe climatic changes are projected in these areas. African countries further have a lower ability to cope with impacts of climate change through the lack of suitable adapted management strategies and financial constraints. In this study we are predicting current and future habitat suitability under changing climatic conditions for Tuta absoluta, Ceratitis cosyra, and Bactrocera invadens, three important insect pests that are common across some parts of Africa and responsible for immense agricultural losses. We use presence records from different sources and bioclimatic variables to predict their habitat suitability using the maximum entropy modelling approach. We find that habitat suitability for B. invadens, C. cosyra and T. absoluta is partially increasing across the continent, especially in those areas already overlapping with or close to most suitable sites under current climate conditions. Assuming a habitat suitability at three different threshold levels we assessed where each species is likely to be present under future climatic conditions and if this is likely to have an impact on productive agricultural areas. Our results can be used by African policy makers, extensionists and farmers for agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change. PMID:27054718

  4. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  5. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rammig

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  6. Uncertainties in extreme precipitation under climate change conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia

    The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that it is unequivocal that climate change is occurring. One of the largest impacts of climate change is anticipated to be an increase in the severity of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation. Floods caused...... by extreme precipitation pose a threat to human life and cause high economic losses for society. Thus, strategies to adapt to changes in extreme precipitation are currently being developed and established worldwide. Information on the expected changes in extreme precipitation is required for the development...... of adaptation strategies, but these changes are subject to uncertainties. The focus of this PhD thesis is the quantification of uncertainties in changes in extreme precipitation. It addresses two of the main sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies: regional climate models (RCMs) and statistical...

  7. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan R Mosedale

    Full Text Available The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  8. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  9. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  10. Response of Groundwater to Climate Change under Extreme Climate Conditions in North China Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ying Zhang; Jincui Wang; Jihong Jing; Jichao Sun

    2014-01-01

    The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the water shortage areas of China. Lack of water resources restricted the economic and social development of North China area and resulted in deterio-ration of ecosystem and natural environment. Influenced by the climate change and human activities, the water circulation of NCP was largely changed and the crisis of water resources was aggravated. Therefore, it is important to study the features of the extreme climate and the response mechanism of groundwater to climate change. We analyzed the trend of climate change and extreme climate features in the past 60 years based on the monitoring data of meteorological stations. And then the response characteristics of groundwater to climate change were discussed. The average temperature of NCP was in an obviously upward trend. The overall precipitation variation was in a downward trend. The cli-mate change in this area showed a warming-drying trend. The intensity of extreme precipitation dis-played a trend of declining and then increasing from north to south as well as declining from eastern coastal plain to the piedmont plain. Grey correlation degree analysis indicated that groundwater depth had a close relationship with precipitation and human activities in NCP. The response of groundwater level to precipitation differed from the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain to the coastal plain. The response was more obvious in the coastal plain than the piedmont alluvial-pluvial plain and the middle plain. The precipitation influenced the groundwater depth both directly and indirectly. Under the condition of extreme precipitation, the impact would aggravate, in the forms of rapid or lag raise of groundwater levels.

  11. Icing Conditions Over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Arzhanova, N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate of the Russian Federation for the national territory. This Reference Book addresses the current state of these weather phenomena. However, the ongoing and projected humidity changes in the high latitudes will strongly affect the circum-polar area (land and ocean) and impact the frequency and intensity of these potentially dangerous weather phenomena across the entire extratropical land area. Therefore the goal of the present study is to quantify icing conditions over the northern Eurasia. Our analysis includes data of 958 Russian stations from 1977 to 2012. Regional analysis of gololed characteristics was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. The area-averaging technique using station values converted to anomalies with respect to a common reference period (in this study, from 1977 to 2012). Anomalies were arithmetically averaged first within 1N x 2E grid cells and thereafter by a weighted average value derived over the quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. This approach provides a more uniform spatial field for averaging.

  12. Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Batlle Bayer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation might amplify (positive feedback or dampen (negative feedback the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle. Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature.

    When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback. Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback. In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one.

    Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC. In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES and Integrated Assessment (IA modeling communities is strongly recommended.

  13. Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which result in tremendous economic damage. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture, forestry, high seas fishery, for land and off coast man-made infrastructure. Quantitative icing characteristics such as weight, thickness, and duration are very important for the economy and human wellbeing when their maximum values exceed certain thresholds. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator that in addition to the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits reports also their weight and size. We used observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977–2013 to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. It was found that hoar frosts are observed in most parts of Russia, but icing only occurs in European Russia and the Far East. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon can even be observed in summer months. Statistically significant decreasing trends in occurrence of icing and hoar frost events are found over most of Russia. An increasing trend in icing weights (IWs) was found in the Atlantic Arctic region in autumn. Statistically significant large negative trends in IWs were found in the Pacific Arctic in winter and spring. (letter)

  14. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran;

    , climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...... to be the most critical factor for the stream ecological conditions at Sjælland, and field measurements show that water temperature is rising to damaging levels during low flow summer conditions. Using downstream longitudinal modelling of water flow and water temperature, it is found that shading by riparian...

  15. Hot house global climate change and the human condition

    CERN Document Server

    Strom, Robert G

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is addressed by almost all sciences including many aspects of geosciences, atmospheric, the biological sciences, and even astronomy. It has recently become the concern of other diverse disciplines such as economics, agriculture, demographics and population statistics, medicine, engineering, and political science. This book addresses these complex interactions, integrates them, and derives meaningful conclusions and possible solutions. The text provides an easy-to-read explanation of past and present global climate change, causes and possible solutions to the problem, including t

  16. Marine water quality under climate change conditions/scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Brigolin, Daniele; Carniel, Sandro; Pastres, Roberto; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The increase of sea temperature and the changes in marine currents are generating impacts on coastal waters such as changes in water biogeochemical and physical parameters (e.g. primary production, pH, salinity) leading to progressive degradation of the marine environment. With the main aim of analysing the potential impacts of climate change on coastal water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic (i.e. coastal water bodies of the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions, Italy). RRA integrates the outputs of regional models providing information on macronutrients (i.e. dissolved inorganic nitrogen e reactive phosphorus), dissolved oxygen, pH, salinity and temperature, etc., under future climate change scenarios with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g. biotic index, presence and extension of seagrasses, presence of aquaculture). The presented approach uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the integration of stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the evaluation process. RRA outputs are hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk and damage maps useful for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and vulnerable targets in the considered region. Therefore, the main aim of this contribution is to apply the RRA methodology to integrate, visualize, and rank according to spatial distribution, physical and chemical data concerning the coastal waters of the North Adriatic Sea in order to predict possible changes of the actual water quality.

  17. Collaborative Research for Water Resource Management under Climate Change Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brundiers, K.; Garfin, G. M.; Gober, P.; Basile, G.; Bark, R. H.

    2010-12-01

    We present an ongoing project to co-produce science and policy called Collaborative Planning for Climate Change: An Integrated Approach to Water-Planning, Climate Downscaling, and Robust Decision-Making. The project responds to motivations related to dealing with sustainability challenges in research and practice: (a) state and municipal water managers seek research that addresses their planning needs; (b) the scientific literature and funding agencies call for more meaningful engagement between science and policy communities, in ways that address user needs, while advancing basic research; and (c) empirical research contributes to methods for the design and implementation of collaborative projects. To understand how climate change might impact water resources and management in the Southwest US, our project convenes local, state, and federal water management practitioners with climate-, hydrology-, policy-, and decision scientists. Three areas of research inform this collaboration: (a) the role of paleo-hydrology in water resources scenario construction; (b) the types of uncertainties that impact decision-making beyond climate and modeling uncertainty; and (c) basin-scale statistical and dynamical downscaling of climate models to generate hydrologic projections for regional water resources planning. The project engages all participants in the research process, from research design to workshops that build capacity for understanding data generation and sources of uncertainty to the discussion of water management decision contexts. A team of “science-practice translators” facilitates the collaboration between academic and professional communities. In this presentation we contextualize the challenges and opportunities of use-inspired science-policy research collaborations by contrasting the initial project design with the process of implementation. We draw from two sources to derive lessons learned: literature on collaborative research, and evaluations provided by

  18. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  19. Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie Margarete; Niemitz, Franziska; Reineking, Björn; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-07-01

    During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps

  20. Changes in hydrological regime under changed climate and forest conditions in mountainous basins in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hlavcova, Kamila; Roncak, Peter; Maliarikova, Marcela; Latkova, Tamara; Korbelova, Lenka

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological regime have been an important field of research in recent decades, especially with respect to runoff formation. Land use directly impacts basic hydrological processes, such as evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff. The study focuses on estimating impact of land use and climate changes on runoff generation in selected mountainous basins in Slovakia. Changes in land use were represented by changes in forest distribution and composition induced by changed climate. Two climate scenarios of the daily air temperatures, specific air humidity and precipitation (KNMI A1B and MPI A1B) regionally downscaled for the territory of Slovakia until the time horizon of 2075 were applied. For simulations of runoff and other components of hydrological balance under changed conditions a distributed rainfall-runoff model was used. The simulations were done with an emphasis on the parameterization of the land cover properties (spatially distributed model parameters) and calibration of global parameters of the hydrological model in changed conditions. The outcomes of the runoff simulations indicate that changes in the long-term mean monthly discharges are expected. During the winter and early spring periods, an increase in the long-term mean monthly runoff could be assumed. The period of an increase in runoff could occur from November/December to February/April. This increase could be caused by an increase in air temperature and a shift in the snow melting period from the spring months to the winter period. The period of a decrease in runoff could occur from March/April to September/November. The increase in winter runoff and the decrease in summer runoff are expected to be more extreme for the later time horizons.

  1. Projecting climate change, drought conditions and crop productivity in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sen, B.; Topcu, S.; Türkes, M.; Warner, J.F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the evaluation of regional climate model simulation for Turkey for the 21st century. A regional climate model, ICTP-RegCM3, with 20 km horizontal resolution, is used to downscale the reference and future climate scenario (IPCC-A2) simulations. Characteristics of droughts as wel

  2. Planetary boundary layer energetics simulated from a regional climate model over Europe for present climate and climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, E.; Yagüe, C.; Gaertner, M. A.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a description of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) climate periods as obtained from a regional climate model (RCM) centered on the Mediterranean basin. Vertically integrated turbulent kinetic energy (TKEZ) and boundary layer height (z i ) are used to describe PBL energetics. Present climate shows a TKEZ annual cycle with a clear summer maximum for southern regions, while northern regions of Europe exhibit a smoother or even a lack of cycle. Future climate conditions exhibit a similar behaviour, with an increase in the summer maximum peaks. A detailed analysis of summer surface climate change energetics over land shows an increased Bowen ratio and decreases in the evaporative fraction. The enhanced sensible heat flux responsible for these results causes an energy surplus inside the PBL, resulting in increased convective activity and corresponding TKEZ. These results are consistent with temperature increases obtained by several other model simulations, and also indicate that changes in the turbulent transport from the PBL to the free troposphere can affect atmospheric circulations.

  3. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  4. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  5. Soil organic carbon of European forest soils: current stock and projections under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caddeo, Antonio; Marras, Serena; Spano, Donatella; Sirca, Costantino

    2016-04-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents the largest terrestrial carbon pool, and it is subjected to climate change impacts. In Europe, a limited number of studies makes a wide-scale comparison of SOC stock and changes under climate change conditions, and most of them are related to agricultural soils. In this work, the SOC stock of the forested areas of Europe (obtained from the CORINE 2006 Land Use Map) was assessed at 1 km resolution using the agro-ecosystem SOC model CENTURY. The results of the model were compared with independent observational datasets (i.e. LUCAS Topsoil Survey Database). In addition, climate simulations (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change) and the CORDEX dataset were used to estimate the SOC changes of these areas under climate change conditions.

  6. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher......A doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas of Denmark to meet water resource demands. Combined with projected climate change, which is characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for the country, the impacts to low...

  7. Sustainability Challenges from Climate Change and Air Conditioning Use in Urban Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Karin Lundgren; Tord Kjellstrom

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change increases heat loads in urban areas causing health and productivity risks for millions of people. Inhabitants in tropical and subtropical urban areas are at especial risk due to high population density, already high temperatures, and temperature increases due to climate change. Air conditioning is growing rapidly, especially in South and South-East Asia due to income growth and the need to protect from high heat exposures. Studies have linked increased total hourly elect...

  8. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  9. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  10. Climate change and land management impact rangeland condition and sage-grouse habitat in southeastern Oregon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. Creutzburg

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus. To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global climate change, and three management scenarios, including no management, current management and a sage-grouse habitat restoration scenario. All climate change scenarios projected expansion of moist shrub steppe and contraction of dry shrub steppe, but climate scenarios varied widely in the projected extent of xeric shrub steppe, where hot, dry summer conditions are unfavorable for sage-grouse. Wildfire increased by 26% over the century under current climate due to exotic grass encroachment, and by two- to four-fold across all climate change scenarios as extreme fire years became more frequent. Exotic grasses rapidly expanded in all scenarios as large areas of the landscape initially in semi-degraded condition converted to exotic-dominated systems. Due to the combination of exotic grass invasion, juniper encroachment, and climatic unsuitability for sage-grouse, projected sage-grouse habitat declined in the first several decades, but increased in area under the three climate change scenarios later in the century, as moist shrub steppe increased and rangeland condition improved. Management activities in the model were generally unsuccessful in controlling exotic grass invasion but were

  11. Conditions for Emergence, Stability and Change in New Organizations in the Field of Citizens Climate Action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    Climate change represents a crisis of tangible measure and the emergence of a field of action within which acting today needs to be motivated for what can contribute to benefit climate and transform society into a low carbon tomorrow. With the breadth and scope of citizen action on climate change...... expanding worldwide the weight of expectations can be boiled down to two: One refers to their potential for delivering specific mitigation/adaptation goals; the second refers to their organizational potential, stability and the manner in which they can ultimately affect societal transformational change....... This contribution is concerned with the latter. It proposes that using field analysis it is possible to understand conditions of emergence, stability and change in citizen engagement in climate action. The present contribution offers only a preliminary exploration of possibilities for how using field theory can...

  12. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tae-Kyun Kim

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and design guidelines. Nevertheless, study results applicable to construction sites continue to be ineffective and insufficient. Therefore, this study proposes ways to cope with climate change by considering the effect of concrete curing condition variations on concrete material performance. More specifically, the 3-, 7- and 28-day compressive and split tensile strength properties of concrete mix cured under various climatic factors including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunlight exposure time were evaluated to determine whether the concrete meets the current design requirements. Thereafter, a performance based evaluation (PBE was performed using satisfaction probabilities based on the test values to understand the problems associated with the current mix proportion design practice and to identify countermeasures to deal with climate change-induced curing conditions.

  13. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  14. Environmental Risk of Climate Change and Groundwater Abstraction on Ecological Conditions in a Danish Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaby, L. P.; Boegh, E.; Jensen, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    The Danish drinking water supply is sourced almost entirely from groundwater. Balancing water abstraction demands and the ecological conditions in streams is one of the major challenges for water resource managers. With projected climate change, characterised by increased annual temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration rates for Denmark, the impact to low flows and groundwater levels are especially of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. On the island Sjælland, which includes urban and agricultural regions, a doubling of groundwater abstraction rates has been proposed in selected areas to meet water resource demands. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future climate (i.e. precipitation, temperature, reference evapotranspiration) come from the ENSEMBLES climate modelling project. Climate variables from 11 climate models are first bias corrected with a distribution based scaling (DBS) method (Seaby et al., 2013) and then used to force hydrological simulations of stream discharge, groundwater recharge, and nitrate leaching from the root zone under present (1991-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate conditions. Hydrological modelling utilises a sequential coupling methodology with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model which the National Water Resources Model (DK-model) is set up in (Henriksen et al., 2003). We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher reductions to low flows seen around 40%. The combined effects of climate change and increased groundwater

  15. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  16. Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on

  17. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  18. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  19. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  20. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  1. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  2. Relation of ice conditions to climate change in the Bohai Sea of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The ice conditions in the Bohai Sea and the northern Huanghai Sea greatly change from year to year with winter climate. Ice only covers below 15% of the the waters during the warmest win ter, while it covers more than 80% during the coldest winter. Ice observation and data acquisition are outlined in the paper. The ice-covered area, the position of ice edge and the ice grades give indication of the ice conditions. The local climate of the waters can be expressed by using the air temperature of the stations of Dalian and Yingkou. The variation of the ice condition indexes with the monthly mean air temperature at Dalian from 1952 to 2000 is shown, as well. The local climate and ice conditions in the waters are affected by many factors, such as, evolution of the general atmospheric circulation and the solar activity. The delayed correlation between the ice conditions and lots of the affecting factors is analysed in the paper. The ice conditions are continuously mild since the 1990s, that is relative to the tendency of the global warming. The ice condition variation of the Bohai Sea is related to the El Nino event and the sunspot period. The seasonal evolution of the ice conditions is also described in the paper.

  3. Water supply patterns in two agricultural areas of Central Germany under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Tölle

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing emissions of greenhouse gases and increasing prices for fossil fuels have highlighted the demand for CO2 "neutral" renewable energy sources, e.g. short rotation forestry systems used for bioenergy. These systems might be vulnerable to changes in temperature, precipitation and occurrence of extreme weather events. To estimate success or failure of such short rotation coppices in a certain area we need regional climate projections and risk assessment. Changes of water supply patterns in two agriculturally extensively used regions in Central Germany (around Göttingen and Großfahner with different climate conditions but both in the temperate climate zone are explored. The study is carried out under present conditions as well as under projected climate change conditions (1971–2100 using A1B and B1 climate scenarios downscaled for Europe. Analysis of precipitation bias shows regional differences: a strong bias in Göttingen area and a weaker bias in the Großfahner area. A bias correction approach, Quantile mapping, is applied to the ensemble results for both areas for winter and summer seasons. By using quantile regression on the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs as indicator for water supply conditions we found that precipitation is expected to increase in winter in all quantiles of the distribution for Göttingen area during the 21th century. Heavy precipitation is also expected to increase for Großfahner area suggesting a trend to wetter extremes in winter for the future. This winter precipitation increase could trigger runoff and soil erosion risk enhancing the severity of floods. Increasing winter availability of water could enhance local water supply in spring. For both areas no significant change in summer was found over the whole time period. Although the climate change signal of the SPI indicate mild dryer conditions in summer at the end of the 21st century which may trigger water shortage and

  4. Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

  5. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  6. Game theory and corporate governance: conditions for effective stewardship of companies exposed to climate change risks

    OpenAIRE

    Kruitwagen, L; Madani, K.; Caldecott, B; Workman, MHW

    2016-01-01

    Engagement between investors and corporate boards has been suggested as a pathway to mitigate stranded asset and climate change risks. Debate is ongoing as to whether divestment or active ownership strategies are more appropriate to deliver longterm value and environmental sustainability. The paper tests the effectiveness of owner engagement strategies by studying the conditions for cooperation between investors and their companies. Characteristics of investors and compan...

  7. Thermal State Of Permafrost In Urban Environment Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streletskiy, D. A.; Grebenets, V. I.; Kerimov, A. G.; Kurchatova, A.; Andruschenko, F.; Gubanov, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risks and damage, caused by deformation of building and constructions in cryolithozone, are growing for decades. Worsening of cryo-ecological situation and loss of engineering-geocryological safety are induced by both technogenic influences on frozen basement and climate change. In such towns on permafrost as Vorkuta, Dixon more than 60% of objects are deformed, in Yakutsk, Igarka- nearly 40%, in Norilsk, Talnakh, Mirnij 35%, in old indigenous villages - approximately 100%; more than 80% ground dams with frozen cores are in poor condition. This situation is accompanied by activation of dangerous cryogenic processes. For example in growing seasonally-thaw layer is strengthening frost heave of pipeline foundation: only on Yamburg gas condensate field (Taz Peninsula) are damaged by frost heave and cut or completely replaced 3000 - 5000 foundations of gas pipelines. Intensity of negative effects strongly depends on regional geocryology, technogenic loads and climatic trends, and in Arctic we see a temperature rise - warming, which cause permafrost temperature rise and thaw). In built areas heat loads are more diverse: cold foundations (under the buildings with ventilated cellars or near termosyphons) are close to warm areas with technogenic beddings (mainly sandy), that accumulate heat, close to underground collectors for communications, growing thaw zones around, close to storages of snows, etc. Note that towns create specific microclimate with higher air temperature. So towns are powerful technogenic (basically, thermal) presses, placed on permafrost; in cooperation with climate changes (air temperature rise, increase of precipitation) they cause permafrost degradation. The analysis of dozens of urban thermal fields, formed in variable cryological and soil conditions, showed, that nearly 70% have warming trend, 20% - cooling and in 10% of cases the situation after construction is stable. Triggered by warming of climate changes of vegetation, depth and temperature of

  8. Climate change and future overwintering conditions of horticultural woody-plants in Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laapas, M.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H. (Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland))

    2012-07-01

    Climate in Finland offers challenging conditions for commercial horticulture. The short and insufficient growing season together with risky overwintering strongly limits species suitable for cultivation. The aim of this study was to examine the climatic conditions around Finland in the aspect of horticulture, focusing on processes relevant to woody plants and species with photoperiod controlled growth cessation, and how these conditions may be expected to change due to the projected global warming. For this, a set of temperature-related indices and threshold events were used. These indices represent the severity of coldness during winter, wintertime thaws, and frost events close to the onset and ending of the growing season. The combined results of 19 GCMs (General Circulation Model) from the CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3) multi-model data set under SRES-B1 and SRES-A2 (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios were used to produce the future projections. By mid-century our results suggest wintertime conditions with reduced cold stress, caused by less frequent and shorter periods of severe frost together with a rise in the extreme minimum temperature. Conversely, an increase in the number and intensity of wintertime thaw events leads to a higher risk in overwintering. Also the risk of spring frost damage is projected to decrease slightly, and the conditions for cold hardening process to improve, as the first autumnal frosts occur later. (orig.)

  9. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  10. Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Strength under Various Curing Conditions to Investigate Climate Change Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Tae-Kyun Kim; Seung-Jai Choi; Jang-Ho Jay Kim; Byung-Yun Kim

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the manifestation of global warming-induced climate change has been observed through super typhoons, heavy snowfalls, torrential rains, and extended heat waves. These climate changes have been occurring all over the world and natural disasters have caused severe damage and deterioration of concrete structures and infrastructure. In an effort to deal with these problems due to extreme and abnormal climate changes, studies have been conducted to develop construction technologies and d...

  11. Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

    2012-04-01

    The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal

  12. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  13. Groundwater Supported Evapotranspiration within Glaciated Watersheds under Conditions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, M. A.; Winter, T. C.; Rosenberry, D. O.; Cohen, D.; Gutowski, W. J.; Dahlstrom, D.; Roy, P.; Emi, I.; Zabielski, V.; Wrigth, H.; Nieber, J.; Daannen, R.

    2004-05-01

    We analyze the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface water/groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and runoff generation under conditions of long-term climate change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, as well as saturated/unsaturated mathematical modeling. Analysis of historical water table (1970-1993) and lake level (1924--2002) records indicate that larger amplitude, longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to climatic fluctuations. Under dust-bowl type climatic conditions, lake and water table levels fell by as much as 2-4 meters in the uplands but by only a meter in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake core records indicate that Moody lake, located near the confluence of the Crow Wing and Mississippi rivers fell by as much as 4 meters between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time period, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the watershed divide near Alexandria, MN, fell by about 15 m. These findings are consistent with analytical calculations that indicate that the response time and magnitude of water table and lake level fluctuations will be greatest near the water table divide of large watersheds. A sensitivity analysis was carried out using a transient saturated-unsaturated hydrologic model (HYDRAT2D) to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity, land surface topography and watershed size can influence watertable fluctuations, westlands formation, evapotranspiration, and runoff. The models were run by recycling relatively wet (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) climatic record over a period of 10 years followed by 20 years of a dryer (1976, 38~cm precipitation) and warmer climate record. Model results indicated that aquifer-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12 % (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The highest hydraulic

  14. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  15. Phytoremdiation Species And Their Modification Under By Weed Varying Climatic Condition A Changing Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Singh

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The major reasons for environmental contamination are population explosion increase in industrial and other urban activities. One of the consequent effect of these activities is heavy metal pollution. It is one of the serious issue to be discussed by the scientists and academicians that how to solve this problem to protect the environment. As heavy metals are non-biodegradable so they require effective cleanup technology. Most of the traditional methods such as excavation solidification and burial are very costly or they simply involve the isolation of the metals from contaminated sites. Among different technologies phytoremediation is best approach for removing metal contamination from environment. It involves plants to remove detoxify or immobilize metals from environment. Weed plants are found to be play very important role in metal remediation. They get affected by climatic variation which is also a consequent effect of environmental pollution. The physiology of plants as well as physiochemical properties of soil gets affected by varying climatic condition. Therefore the present review gives the information on metal remediation processes and how these process particularly phytoremediation by weed plants get affected by climatic changes.

  16. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating 7 test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. The Rio Mannu Basin, located in Sardinia; Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The catchment has a size of 472.5 km2, it ranges from 62 to 946 meters in elevation, at mean annual temperatures of 16°C and precipitation of about 700 mm, the annual runoff volume is about 200 mm. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) was setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. State of the art remote sensing techniques and field measuring techniques were applied to improve the quality of hydrological input parameters. In a field campaign about 250 soil samples were collected and lab-analyzed. Different geostatistical regionalization methods were tested to improve the

  17. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  18. Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, P.

    2015-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

  19. Assessing the Land-Ocean Interaction under Extreme Climate Change Condition - a Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Wang, T.; Leung, R.; Balaguru, K.; Hibbard, K. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many modeling applications, at global and regional scales, have demonstrated that numerical models are useful tools to quantify the uncertainty and the interactions between natural physical and biogeochemical processes and human activities in coastal regions. A regional integrated assessment modeling framework to investigate the interactions of agriculture and land use, coastal ecological issues, energy supply and effects of climate changes is under development by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), with specific application to the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is vulnerable to the direct impacts of climate changes, such as sea level rise, hurricane-induced storm surge and extreme floods due to high precipitation and river run-off. This presentation will focus on the coastal modeling aspect of this integrated modeling approach. An unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model, which has the capability of simulating coastal circulation, wave and storm surges, sediment transport and biogeochemical processes, is applied to simulate hurricane storm surges and extreme flood events in the coastal region of Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, storm surge along the US Southeast coasts and freshwater plume in the Mississippi Delta were simulated and compared to observations. Numerical sensitivity studies with boundary conditions and forcing indicated the urgent need of a real observation network as well as the importance of accurate model predictions at regional scales to drive the model at smaller scales. The implication of natural pressures, such as storm surge and flooding to biogeochemical processes and marine ecosystem will be discussed.

  20. A stochastic rainfall model for the assessment of regional water resource systems under changed climatic condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. Fowler

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A stochastic model is developed for the synthesis of daily precipitation using conditioning by weather types. Daily precipitation statistics at multiple sites within the region of Yorkshire, UK, are linked to objective Lamb weather types (LWTs and used to split the region into three distinct precipitation sub-regions. Using a variance minimisation criterion, the 27 LWTs are clustered into three physically realistic groups or ‘states'. A semi-Markov chain model is used to synthesise long sequences of weather states, maintaining the observed persistence and transition probabilities. The Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses (NSRP model is then fitted for each weather state, using a defined summer and winter period. The combined model reproduces key aspects of the historic precipitation regime at temporal resolutions down to the hourly level. Long synthetic precipitation series are useful in the sensitivity analysis of water resource systems under current and changed climatic conditions. This methodology enables investigation of the impact of variations in weather type persistence or frequency. In addition, rainfall model statistics can be altered to simulate instances of increased intensity or proportion of dry days for example, for individual weather groups. The input of such data into a water resource model, simulating potential atmospheric circulation changes, will provide a valuable tool for future planning of water resource systems. The ability of the model to operate at an hourly level also allows its use in a wider range of hydrological impact studies, e.g. variations in river flows, flood risk estimation etc. Keywords: water resources; climate change; impacts; stochastic rainfall model; Lamb weather types

  1. Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Rötter, Reimund P.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita;

    2014-01-01

    events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed...

  2. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  3. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  4. Relating changes of organic matter composition of two German peats to climatic conditions during peat formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knicker, Heike; Nikolova, Radoslava; Rumpel, Cornelia; González-Vila, Francisco, J.; Drösler, Matthias

    2010-05-01

    Peatlands have been recognized as an important factor within the global C-cycle, since they store about one-third of the global terrestrial C-pool. Furthermore, peat deposits have the potential to record detailed paleoclimatic and - vegetational changes. They are formed in peculiar paleoecosystems where the slow biodegradation of plant residues depends on a series of pedo-climatic and hydromorphic factors leading to a progressive accumulation of organic matter stabilized in different evolutionary stages. Thus, its chemical composition should be applicable as a fingerprint of former prevailing environmental conditions and vegetation configurations. The aim of the present work was to identify this fingerprint in the cores of two German fens, one derived from the Havelland close to Berlin (Großer Bolchow) and the other derived from the alpine region of Bavaria (Kendlmühlfilzen) by investigating the organic matter transformation as a function of peat depths. The C/N ratios and δ13C values revealed several distinctive trends in the two profiles related to prevailing peat forming conditions. Compared to the other layers, at depths of 14-85 cm and 132-324 cm in the Kendlmühlfilzen fen, high C/N ratios and less depleted δ13C values, indicated that the accumulation of these two layers occurred during a humid and cold period. In the case of the "Großer Bolchow", algal contributions were clearly detected using δ13C values. Solid-state 13C NMR spectroscopy demonstrated loss of celluloses and accumulation of lipids and lignin derivatives during peatification, confirming that under the mostly O2-depleted conditions in peats, decomposition was selective. The results obtained by pyrolysis-GC/MS were in good agreement with the NMR data showing that processes ascribed to gradual biotransformation of the lignin occurred in both peats. However, the "Großer Bolchow" peat revealed a more advanced decomposition stage then the "Kendlmühlfilzen" peat, which is in agreement with

  5. A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    2015-01-01

    Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic climate...... may best represent a future climate scenario since more than one climate factor most likely will change at a time. From the basic ambient treatment to the two-factor treatment including heatwave, grain yield decreased 52%. Our study emphasizes the need for assessing the effects of extreme events under...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

  6. Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-03-01

    Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

  7. Agricultural machineries wheeling and soil qualities mapping in climatic changes conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergonzoli, S.; Servadio, P.

    2012-04-01

    and on control areas, a software GIS was used. Results shown the highest level of soil compaction caused by the traffic of WTN in term of CI and SS. In fact, increment ratio respect to the control measured after the tractors pass were: CI = 0.65 and 0.14 for WTN and for WTEL respectively; SS = 0.65 and 0.46 for WTN and WTEL respectively. Comparing the two different tires, significant differences were found particularly in the surface layers (0-0.20 m depth): mean values of CI and SS were higher for WTN (0.47 and 1.60 respectively) respect to WTEL. Track area covered by the two treatments respect to the whole field (16.32 ha) were: 0.025 for treatment WTN (0.27 m tires width) having an operative work width of 24 m ; 0.075 for treatment WTEL (0.85 m tires width) having an operative work width of 14 m. Results of this study highlighted that, in these field conditions (clay soil, water content over field capacity), tractor pass with very narrow tires caused a soil compaction level too high up to be impossible to traffic into the field. To operate at these soil water content conditions a tractors fitted with low aspect ratio and low inflation pressure tires is necessary. With lower soil water content, narrow tires allow carrying out fertilization into the inter-row avoiding crop trampling and compacting less percentage of field area respect to the a tractor equipped with large tires. Key words: Tractor, Soil trafficability, Soil compaction, Tires, GPS, GIS. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  8. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Archer

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation.

    The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

  9. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. R. Archer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation.

    The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes – a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.

  10. Coastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its prevention

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Feng Cai; Xianze Su; Jianhui Liu; Bing Li; Gang Lei

    2009-01-01

    The general characteristics of coastal erosion in China are described in terms of the regional geography,the form of erosion,the causes of erosion,and the challenges we are facing.The paper highlights the relationship between coastal erosion and sea level rises,storm waves and tides,and the influence of global climate changes on coastal erosion along the coastal zone of China.The response of the risk of coastal erosion in China to climate changes has obvious regional diversity.Research into and the forecasting of the effects of climate changes on coastal erosion are systemic work involving the natural environment,social economy,and alongshore engineering projects in the global system.Facing global warming and continual enhancement of coastal erosion,suggestions for basic theoretical study,prevention technology,management system assurance,and strengthening the legal system are presented here.

  11. Can environmental conditions affect smallholders' climate change perception? Evidence from an aridity gradient in the Gobi desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueff, Henri

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing interest in smallholders' climate change perception (CCP). Understanding what people perceive in relation to the climate they endure supports national climate change adaptation policy especially relevant to uncertain and resource-scarce environments. Most research so far focused on the accuracy of CCP compared to observed climatic data. However, the potential effect of factors influencing peoples' perceptions remains largely unstudied. This research tests two hypotheses in a desert environment; first, that CCP varies along an aridity gradient, and, second, that respondents are more consistent (answers less far apart) in their CCP when facing more climate shocks, which supports the first hypothesis. A semi-structured survey was conducted among nomadic (Mongolia) (n=180) and semi-nomadic (Inner Mongolia-China) (n=180) herders, to analyse perception along an aridity gradient (proxied by Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) covering an array of climate change issues in the Gobi. Results suggests that environmental conditions have a significant effect on CCP but only in terms of experienced climate shocks. The CCP for other climatic variables (rain, season length) is more diffused and can poorly be predicted by the surrounding environment smallholders live in. Institutional contrasts between China and Mongolia explain marginally differences of perception. Further research is needed to validate these results among smallholders on other environmental gradient types, for examples along altitudinal biome stratification in mountain environments.

  12. Uncertainty of the hydrological response to climate change conditions; 605 basins, 3 hydrological models, 5 climate models, 5 hydrological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Clark, Martyn; Teuling, Adriaan

    2016-04-01

    Many studies investigated the effect of a changing climate on the hydrological response of a catchment and uncertainty of the effect coming from hydrologic modelling (e.g., forcing, hydrologic model structures, and parameters). However, most past studies used only a single or a small number of catchments. To go beyond the case-study, and to assess the uncertainty involved in modelling the hydrological impact of climate change more comprehensively, we studied 605 basins over a wide range of climate regimes throughout the contiguous USA. We used three different widely-used hydrological models (VIC, HBV, SAC), which we forced with five distinct climate model outputs. The hydrological models have been run for a base period (1986-2008) for which observations were available, and for a future period (2070-2099). Instead of calibrating each hydrological model for each basin, the model has been run with a parameter sample (varying from 1600 to 1900 samples dependent on the number of free parameters in the model). Five hydrological states and fluxes were stored; discharge, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, SWE and snow melt, and 15 different metrics and signatures have been obtained for each model run. With the results, we conduct a sensitivity analysis over the change in signatures from the future period compared to the base period. In this way, we can identify the parameters that are responsible for certain projected changes, and identify the processes responsible for this change. By using three different models, in which VIC is most distinctive in including explicit vegetation parameters, we can compare different process representations and the effect on the projected hydrological change.

  13. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  14. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Archer, D.R.; N. Forsythe; Fowler, H J; Shah, S M

    2010-01-01

    Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with ...

  15. Modelling of future groundwater recharge in the metropolitian area of Hamburg (Germany) under changed climate conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Frank; Chen, Shaoning; Heidt, Lena; Müller, Udo; Kunkel, Ralf; Wendland, Frank

    2013-01-01

    According to current climate projections, the metropolitan area of Hamburg, Germany is at risk for changes in the hydrological budget. These changes are expected to have direct impacts on the long-term water availability for e.g. agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. In the south-eastern part of the Metropolitan area for instance agricultural production without restrictions is only possible by means of field irrigation, especially during dry summers. It can be foreseen that the...

  16. Understanding the Role of Microorganisms in Soil Quality and Fertility under changing Climatic Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition (SWMCN) Subprogramme (Section and Laboratory) assists FAO and IAEA Member States in the development, validation and dissemination of a range of soil, water and crop management technology packages using nuclear and nuclear-related techniques. In the coming years, SWMCN aims to (i) improve soil quality and soil resilience against the impacts of climate change and variability and (ii) reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase soil carbon sequestration in both productive and marginal lands. To achieve these aims, the SWMCN Subprogramme is planning to put major emphasis on applied microbial ecology. Microbial communities play a major role in soil fertility improvement through the decomposition of crop residues, live- stock manure and soil organic matter. These microbes are often affected by variations in rainfall and temperature patterns caused by climate change. Recent advances in the use of stable isotopes like carbon-3, nitrogen-5 and oxygen-18 as biomarkers to characterize microbial communities and their interactions with soil nutrient and organic matter processes, known as stable isotope probing (SIP), are important for soil-water-nutrient management. SIP helps us to understand the interactions between soil microbial communities and their specific functions in soil carbon sequestration, soil organic matter stabilization, soil fertility and soil resilience, as well as the soil productive capacity for sustainable intensification of cropping and livestock production. SIP involves the introduction of a stable isotope labelled substrate into a soil microbial community to trace the fate of the substrate. This allows direct observations of substrate assimilation to be made in minimally disturbed communities of microorganisms. Microorganisms that are actively involved in specific metabolic processes can be identified under in-situ conditions. SIP is most developed for carbon-13 probing, but studies using nitrogen-15 and

  17. Performance of gas turbines in Russia under the changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Kasilova, E. V.; Rekunenko, E. S.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2016-10-01

    The impact of the expected climatic changes on the performance of gas turbine units (GTU) as part of the power industry and gas pipeline network in Russia is considered. Long-term estimates of changes in the average annual air temperature throughout the country are made based on the authors' model. The calculations using the efficiency value of gas turbine units as a function of the ambient air temperature show that climatic changes will significantly deteriorate the operational efficiency of gas-turbine equipment in practically all of Russia's regions. Based on publicly available statistical data, we assessed the installed capacity of gas-turbine power stations (including combined-cycle power plants) and gas-turbine drive of gas pipeline network. Three development scenarios have been considered for gas turbine power in the national electric power industry, differing in the rates of new facilities' commissioning. Integrated estimates have been made of the increase in gas consumption in Russia's gas pipeline network and power industry resulting from climatic changes by 2030 and 2050. It is shown that the total increase in the annual gas consumption associated with a reduction in the efficiency of gas turbine units due to climate warming by 2030 could reach approximately 130000 tce (of which approximately 90000 tce in the gas pipeline network and 40000 tce in the electric power industry) and more than 170000 tce (120000 and 50000 tce, respectively) by 2050. Should more optimistic scenarios be implemented for the development of the electric power industry, this effect will increase 1.5-2.0 times by 2050. Despite high absolute values, the increase in GTU fuel expenditures due to higher ambient temperatures resulting from climate change in Russia will only amount to a fraction of a percent of the total gas consumption and will be two orders of magnitude lower than the savings in space heating.

  18. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2013-03-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  19. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  20. Seawater intrusion risk analysis under climate change conditions for the Gaza Strip aquifer (Palestine)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dentoni, Marta; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Marrocu, Marino; Lecca, Giuditta

    2014-05-01

    Seawater intrusion (SWI) has become a major threat to coastal freshwater resources, particularly in the Mediterranean basin, where this problem is exacerbated by the lack of appropriate groundwater resources management and with serious potential impacts from projected climate changes. A proper analysis and risk assessment that includes climate scenarios is essential for the design of water management measures to mitigate the environmental and socio-economic impacts of SWI. In this study a methodology for SWI risk analysis in coastal aquifers is developed and applied to the Gaza Strip coastal aquifer in Palestine. The method is based on the origin-pathway-target model, evaluating the final value of SWI risk by applying the overlay principle to the hazard map (representing the origin of SWI), the vulnerability map (representing the pathway of groundwater flow) and the elements map (representing the target of SWI). Results indicate the important role of groundwater simulation in SWI risk assessment and illustrate how mitigation measures can be developed according to predefined criteria to arrive at quantifiable expected benefits. Keywords: Climate change, coastal aquifer, seawater intrusion, risk analysis, simulation/optimization model. Acknowledgements. The study is partially funded by the project "Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB)", FP7-ENV-2009-1, GA 244151.

  1. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    : climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

  2. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  3. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  4. Millennial-scale climate variability in response to changing glacial and orbital boundary conditions during the Mid-Pleistocene transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Drysdale, Russell; Bajo, Petra; Barbante, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    The Mid-Pleistocene transition represents perhaps the most important climate transition in the Quaternary period, yet it is one of the most poorly understood. Although the exact timing and mechanism of the onset of the "100 kyr" regime remain a matter of debate, it is well established that the overall periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycles changed from a dominant 41 kyr obliquity periodicity prior to ~0.9 Ma to a dominant late Pleistocene 100 kyr variance. This change in the frequency domain was associated with an increase in the amplitude of global ice volume variations that, superimposed on a long-term climatic trend towards more glacial conditions over millions of years, produced some of the most extreme glaciations recorded. This interval of time has often been considered to be important in relation to long-term Milankovitch-scale climate variability. In contrast, here, special emphasis will be placed on assessing the presence and the characteristics of the suborbital-scale variability, and reconstructing the evolution of millennial-scale climate variability as the average climate state evolve toward generally colder conditions with larger ice sheets, and the spectral character of climate variability shifted from dominantly 41 kyr to 100 kyr. Appealing evidence suggests that millennial-scale climate variability is amplified during times of intense forcing changes, but this rapid variability has not been thoroughly explored yet at the time when the major changes in climate periodicity occurred. To address these questions, we have examined the record of climatic conditions from Marine Isotope Stages 25 to 16 (~970-650 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to assess millennial-scale changes in sea-surface and deep-water conditions, the dynamics of thermohaline deep-water circulation

  5. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  6. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  7. Refrigeration engineering and air conditioning: answers to climatic changes; Froid et conditionnement d'air: reponses aux changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heap, R.D.

    2002-07-01

    This paper examines the nature of climatic changes and their possible environmental consequences, and gives a summary of the policy approach adopted to tackle this question. Greenhouse gases include the traditional refrigerants and the recent ones. The impact of the Montreal protocol on the abatement of the climatic change is examined and the consequences of the Kyoto protocol on the refrigeration and air conditioning engineering are presented. The actions the industry should carry out in order to reduce the climatic changes are listed and the article stresses on the progresses made so far. Many actions remain to be implemented, in particular in the domain of good practices promotion and training. The international institute of refrigeration engineering (IIF) has un important role to play in this task. (J.S.)

  8. Modelling the Impact of Human Actors on Groundwater Resources under Conditions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthel, R.; Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Dabbert, S.; Schneider, K.; Mauser, W.; Hennicker, R.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources, activities of human actors and climate change are related in many different and complex ways because of the existence of and strong interactions between various influencing factors, including those that are natural-environmental and socio-economic. The GLOWA-Danube research cooperation has developed the integrated simulation system DANUBIA to simulate water-related influences of global change in different spatial and temporal contexts. DANUBIA is a modular system comprised of 17 dynamically-coupled, process-based model components and a framework which controls the interaction of these components with respect to space and time. This contribution describes approaches and capabilities of DANUBIA with regard to the simulation of global change effects on human decisions in water related fields with a focus on agriculture and groundwater. In agriculture, market prices and legislation can be equally or even more important than water availability in determining farmers' behavior and thus in determining the agricultural impact on water resources quantity and quality. The DANUBIA simulation framework and the associated DeepActor-framework for simulation of decision-making by human actors are presented together with the model components which are most relevant to the interactions between agriculture and groundwater. The approach for developing combination climate and socio-economic scenarios is explained. Exemplary scenario results are shown for the Upper Danube Catchment in Southern Germany. References Barthel, R., Janisch, S., N. Schwarz, A. Trifkovic, D. Nickel, C. Schulz, W. Mauser (2008): An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environmental Modelling and Software, 23, 1095-1121 (doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.02.004) Barthel, R., Reichenau T., Krimly, T., Dabbert, S., Schneider, K., Mauser, W. (2012) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture and groundwater

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  10. A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate is a master controller of the structure, composition, and function of biotic communities, affecting them both directly, through physiological effects, and indirectly, by mediating biotic interactions and by influencing disturbance regimes. Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s (SEKI’s) dramatic elevational changes in biotic communities -- from warm mediterranean to cold alpine -- are but one manifestation of climate’s overarching importance in shaping SEKI’s landscape. Yet humans are now altering the global climate, with measurable effects on ecosystems (IPCC 2007). Over the last few decades across the western United States, human-induced climatic changes have likely contributed to observed declines in fraction of precipitation falling as snow and snowpack water content (Mote et al. 2005, Knowles et al. 2006), advance in spring snowmelt (Stewart et al. 2005, Barnett et al. 2008), and consequent increase in area burned in wildfires (Westerling et al. 2006). In the Sierra Nevada, warming temperatures have likely contributed to observed glacial recession (Basagic 2008), uphill migration of small mammals (Moritz et al. 2008), and increasing tree mortality rates (van Mantgem and Stephenson 2007, van Mantgem et al. 2009). More substantial changes can be expected for the future (e.g., IPCC 2007). Given the central importance of climate and climatic changes, we sought to describe long-term trends in temperature and precipitation at SEKI. Time and budget constraints limited us to analyses of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, using readily-available data. If funds become available in the future, further analyses will be needed to analyze trends by season, trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and so on. We chose to analyze data from individual weather stations rather than use interpolated climatic data from sources such as PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). In topographically complex mountainous regions with few

  11. Impact of snowmaking on alpine water resources management under present and climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanham, D; Fleischhacker, E; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    Owing to less natural snow reliability as a result of climate change on the one hand, and the demand of higher standards by winter tourists on the other hand, the production of artificial snow in ski resorts has increased substantially during the last 20 years and is likely to increase further in future. Little research has been conducted on the impact of snowmaking as a water demand stakeholder on a regional water balance. In this paper, a regional water balance (water demand-water resources) is analysed for the greater Kitzbueheler Region in the Austrian Alps, for the current situation and a future climate change scenario (2 degrees C warming). For this temperature rise a significant reduction in natural snow cover duration and snow accumulation is predicted, an effect that increases with lower altitudes and differs between the winter months. Due to the shortening of the winter season, a change in seasonality of river flows and available water resources (ground and surface water) occurs. Both increase in winter, and decrease in spring. The water demand for improvement snowmaking increases, especially in the month of March. However, December proved to be the critical month due to the large amounts of water required for base snowmaking both now and in future. These results stress the necessity of reservoir storage for base snowmaking on a regional level. Water availability during other months but winter is sufficient to fill these reservoirs.

  12. Precipitation variability and response to changing climatic condition in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Singh, Vijay P.; Gong, Tongliang; Xu, Kang; Sun, Fubao; Liu, Changming; Liu, Wenbin; Chen, Ruizhi

    2016-08-01

    Hydroclimatic process in the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) basin, a sensitive area to climate change, is obviously changing during recent years, but there has limited understanding about it. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variation of precipitation over last four decades in the basin and the impact thereon of the changing Indian summer monsoon at interannual and decadal time scales. All the precipitation series have similar scaling behavior, reflecting similar climatic regime throughout the basin. However, the effect of the Indian monsoon strengthens from the downstream to upstream, causing spatial variability in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, and on this basis, the YTR basin is roughly divided into three regions: east, middle, and west. Both the occurrence times and magnitude of precipitation extremes, ranging 25-50 mm/d, are exhibiting downward trends over the last four decades, which bodes well for water disaster controls in the basin. The Indian summer monsoon index, as an intensity indicator for the Indian summer monsoon, shows a positive relationship with the summer precipitation in the YTR basin. Periodic variability of the Indian monsoon determines the interannual nonstationary fluctuations of precipitation. Especially, the weakening effect of the Indian summer monsoon has caused an obvious decrease in precipitation over the rainy season after 1998. If the Indian summer monsoon keeps weakening, the precipitation would decrease and potentially water shortage would become more severe in the basin. Effective adaptation strategy should therefore be developed proactively to handle the unfavorable water situation, which is likely to occur in the future.

  13. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  14. Catchment scale modelling of changes in pesticide leaching under present and future climate conditions. Demonstrated for two cases in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Keur, P.; Henriksen, H.; Sonnenborg, T.; van Roosmalen, L.; Rosenbom, A. E.; Olesen, J. E.; Kjaer, J.; Jørgensen, L. N.; Christensen, O. B.

    2011-12-01

    A catchment scale model MACRO-MIKE SHE is applied for simulating changes in pesticide concentrations to the aquatic environment. The MACRO model is used to model the effect of changes in climate and pesticide management on pesticide leaching from the unsaturated zone and simulated percolation as well as solute flow is propagated to the MIKE SHE model. The intensity based bias correction method for converting from Regional Climate Modelling data to hydrological input data is the most appropriate method as it best reflects changes in rainfall intensity, and thus also in intensity for MACRO simulated percolation and solute flow. Results show that increased percolation simulated by the MACRO model and propagated to the MIKE SHE model nearly all ends up in increased drainage to the river. Further, pesticide solute entering the saturated zone (SZ) is mainly leaving SZ via drainage (85-94%), base flow (3.8-11.3%) and overland flow (0-3.1 %). Mean concentrations in groundwater (SZ) increase by 30-99% for one type of herbicide under future climatic conditions, whereas mean concentrations decrease for two other types by app. 93 and 91 % respectively. Future climatic conditions lead to higher concentrations in surface water for the first type of herbicides, but to decreased concentrations for the another type of herbicide and insecticide. It is overall concluded that an integrated catchment scale modeling approach is essential for pesticide fate simulation taking account of all possible hydrologic pathways.

  15. Modeling hydrological regimes of lakes under climate change conditions using heat-water balance method by Budyko

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemeshko, Natalia; Eitzinger, Josef; Kubu, Gerhard

    2013-04-01

    Global climate change will lead to increasing air temperatures over the next decades and is expected at least to be 1-2°C above the pre-industrial values in near future. Close relationships between the physical processes in the atmosphere and the surface of the planet cause not only temperature changes, but also changes in other parameters of the climate system including hydrosphere. In this context the investigations of a possible change in moisture regime with global warming are very important for assessment of the future changes in the hydrological cycle. A steady-state hydrological model has been developed for evaluation of the changes in climate and hydrological parameters with the progress of global warming. This model is based on the heat-water balance method by M. Budyko and paleoclimatic scenarios. The Budyko's heat-water balance method is based on the combined solution of energy and water balance equations, as well as two empirical dependences: the evaporation rate on soil water content and the surface runoff on precipitation and soil moisture. This method is a universal one as it was developed using empirical data of different climates, including specific humid and arid ones. The method allows to calculate the mean monthly values of evaporation, runoff and water content of the active soil layer (1 m) using data on mean monthly values of surface air temperature, air humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, surface albedo and solar radiation, both for the actual climatic conditions, and for climatic conditions different from the present ones. Some additional assumptions have been made to adapt the method for scenarios of climate change. The paleoclimate scenarios are considered to a certain extent as analogs of future climates. The scenarios used consist of regional deviation from actual climate of annual precipitation, winter and summer air temperatures for Holocene optimum (6-5 KA B.P.) and Last Interglacial (about 125 KA B.P.), which correspond to global

  16. Land cover and land use changes in the oil and gas regions of Northwestern Siberia under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard E.; Engstrom, Ryan; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Strelestskiy, Dmitry

    2015-12-01

    Northwestern Siberia has been undergoing a range of land cover and land use changes associated with climate change, animal husbandry and development of mineral resources, particularly oil and gas. The changes caused by climate and oil/gas development Southeast of the city of Nadym were investigated using multi-temporal and multi-spatial remotely sensed images. Comparison between high spatial resolution imagery acquired in 1968 and 2006 indicates that 8.9% of the study area experienced an increase in vegetation cover (e.g. establishment of new saplings, extent of vegetated cover) in response to climate warming while 10.8% of the area showed a decrease in vegetation cover due to oil and gas development and logging activities. Waterlogging along linear structures and vehicle tracks was found near the oil and gas development site, while in natural landscapes the drying of thermokarst lakes is evident due to warming caused permafrost degradation. A Landsat time series dataset was used to document the spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems in response to climate change and disturbances. The impacts of land use on surface vegetation, radiative, and hydrological properties were evaluated using Landsat image-derived biophysical indices. The spatial and temporal analyses suggest that the direct impacts associated with infrastructure development were mostly within 100 m distance from the disturbance source. While these impacts are rather localized they persist for decades despite partial recovery of vegetation after the initial disturbance and can have significant implications for changes in permafrost dynamics and surface energy budgets at landscape and regional scales.

  17. Land cover and land use changes in the oil and gas regions of Northwestern Siberia under changing climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Northwestern Siberia has been undergoing a range of land cover and land use changes associated with climate change, animal husbandry and development of mineral resources, particularly oil and gas. The changes caused by climate and oil/gas development Southeast of the city of Nadym were investigated using multi-temporal and multi-spatial remotely sensed images. Comparison between high spatial resolution imagery acquired in 1968 and 2006 indicates that 8.9% of the study area experienced an increase in vegetation cover (e.g. establishment of new saplings, extent of vegetated cover) in response to climate warming while 10.8% of the area showed a decrease in vegetation cover due to oil and gas development and logging activities. Waterlogging along linear structures and vehicle tracks was found near the oil and gas development site, while in natural landscapes the drying of thermokarst lakes is evident due to warming caused permafrost degradation. A Landsat time series dataset was used to document the spatial and temporal dynamics of these ecosystems in response to climate change and disturbances. The impacts of land use on surface vegetation, radiative, and hydrological properties were evaluated using Landsat image-derived biophysical indices. The spatial and temporal analyses suggest that the direct impacts associated with infrastructure development were mostly within 100 m distance from the disturbance source. While these impacts are rather localized they persist for decades despite partial recovery of vegetation after the initial disturbance and can have significant implications for changes in permafrost dynamics and surface energy budgets at landscape and regional scales. (letter)

  18. Renewable energy to develop adaptation strategies to the climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servadio, Pieranna; Bergonzoli, Simone

    2013-04-01

    between the corn rows. During the irrigation tests for the autoclave pressure values already mentioned, we obtained an 80 l min-1 flow rate value with a 28 m head value measured by pressure gauge upstream from the electric pump. In these conditions and on sunny days a 26 m3 water body was obtained. From the agronomic point of view, the crop developed more than usual, did not undergo parasite attack nor lodging or cutting off of the steams during the biological cycle, and the development of weeds was limited. The grain production amounted to 10.5 t ha-1, 12.4 % higher with respect to the rain-irrigated parcels. Crop yield results showed better performance of the drip irrigation plant with respect to the sprinkler system. The photovoltaic system met design expectations and showed good reliability during the years of testing. The long-term tests showed that the photovoltaic system is capable of supplying a farm. The problem linked with combustion of fossil fuel will improve this system of energy supply to agricultural farms located in areas not reached by the power network both in Europe and in the sub Saharan countries where many plans are developing in last year pursuing also the scope of a drastic reduction of GHG fluxes. Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the auspices of the special project "Sceneries of adaptation of the Italian agriculture to the climatic changes" (AGROSCENARI) of the Agricultural Research Council, and Italian Ministry of the Agricultural and Forestry Politics.

  19. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries.

  20. Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord

    2016-03-01

    One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. PMID:25626424

  1. Predictive analysis of landslide susceptibility in the Kao-Ping watershed, Taiwan under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Shou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Among the most critical issues, climatic abnormalities caused by global warming also affect Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary Typhoon Morakot hit Southern Taiwan on 8 August 2009 and induced serious flooding and landslides. In this study, the Kao-Ping River watershed was adopted as the study area, and the typical events 2007 Krosa Typhoon and 2009 Morakot Typhoon were adopted to train the susceptibility model. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the Kao-Ping River watershed. The rainfall estimates were introduced in the landslide susceptibility model to produce the predictive landslide susceptibility for various rainfall scenarios, including abnormal climate conditions. These results can be used for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Kao-Ping River watershed.

  2. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  3. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  4. Working with invalid boundary conditions: lessons from the field for communicating about climate change with public audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, A.

    2015-12-01

    There is an ongoing need to communicate with public audiences about climate science, current and projected impacts, the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirement to prepare for changes that are likely unavoidable. It is essential that scientists are engaged and active in this effort. Scientists can be more effective communicators about climate change to non-scientific audiences if we recognize that some of the normal "boundary conditions" under which we operate do not need to apply. From how we are trained to how we think about our audience, there are some specific skills and practices that allow us to be more effective communicators. The author will review concepts for making our communication more effective based upon his experience from over 60 presentations about climate change to public audiences. These include expressing how your knowledge makes you feel, anticipating (and accepting) questions unconstrained by physics, respecting beliefs and values while separating them from evidence, and using the history of climate science to provide a compelling narrative. Proper attention to presentation structure (particularly an opening statement), speaking techniques for audience engagement, and effective use of presentation software are also important.

  5. Adaptation of the optimal fingerprint method for climate change detection using a well-conditioned covariance matrix estimate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribes, Aurelien; Planton, Serge [CNRM-GAME, Meteo France-CNRS, Toulouse (France); Azais, Jean-Marc [Universite de Toulouse, UPS, IMT, LSP, Toulouse (France)

    2009-10-15

    The ''optimal fingerprint'' method, usually used for detection and attribution studies, requires to know, or, in practice, to estimate the covariance matrix of the internal climate variability. In this work, a new adaptation of the ''optimal fingerprints'' method is presented. The main goal is to allow the use of a covariance matrix estimate based on an observation dataset in which the number of years used for covariance estimation is close to the number of observed time series. Our adaptation is based on the use of a regularized estimate of the covariance matrix, that is well-conditioned, and asymptotically more precise, in the sense of the mean square error. This method is shown to be more powerful than the basic ''guess pattern fingerprint'', and than the classical use of a pseudo-inverted truncation of the empirical covariance matrix. The construction of the detection test is achieved by using a bootstrap technique particularly well-suited to estimate the internal climate variability in real world observations. In order to validate the efficiency of the detection algorithm with climate data, the methodology presented here is first applied with pseudo-observations derived from transient regional climate change scenarios covering the 1960-2099 period. It is then used to perform a formal detection study of climate change over France, analyzing homogenized observed temperature series from 1900 to 2006. In this case, the estimation of the covariance matrix is only based on a part of the observation dataset. This new approach allows the confirmation and extension of previous results regarding the detection of an anthropogenic climate change signal over the country. (orig.)

  6. Prevalence rates of health and welfare conditions in broiler chickens change with weather in a temperate climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Phil; Hajat, Shakoor

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact assessment and adaptation research in agriculture has focused primarily on crop production, with less known about the potential impacts on livestock. We investigated how the prevalence of health and welfare conditions in broiler (meat) chickens changes with weather (temperature, rainfall, air frost) in a temperate climate. Cases of 16 conditions were recorded at approved slaughterhouses in Great Britain. National prevalence rates and distribution mapping were based on data from more than 2.4 billion individuals, collected between January 2011 and December 2013. Analysis of temporal distribution and associations with national weather were based on monthly data from more than 6.8 billion individuals, collected between January 2003 and December 2013. Ascites, bruising/fractures, hepatitis and abnormal colour/fever were most common, at annual average rates of 29.95, 28.00, 23.76 and 22.29 per 10 000, respectively. Ascites and abnormal colour/fever demonstrated clear annual cycles, with higher rates in winter than in summer. Ascites prevalence correlated strongly with maximum temperature at 0 and −1 month lags. Abnormal colour/fever correlated strongly with temperature at 0 lag. Maximum temperatures of approximately 8°C and approximately 19°C marked the turning points of curve in a U-shaped relationship with mortality during transportation and lairage. Future climate change research on broilers should focus on preslaughter mortality.

  7. Development of a methodology to evaluate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) under changing climate conditions: Application to southern Quebec, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseau, Alain N.; Klein, Iris M.; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick; Frigon, Anne; Ratté-Fortin, Claudie

    2014-11-01

    Climate change (CC) needs to be accounted for in the estimation of probable maximum floods (PMFs). However, there does not exist a unique way to estimate PMFs and, furthermore the challenge in estimating them is that they should neither be underestimated for safety reasons nor overestimated for economical ones. By estimating PMFs without accounting for CC, the risk of underestimation could be high for Quebec, Canada, since future climate simulations indicate that in all likelihood extreme precipitation events will intensify. In this paper, simulation outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) are used to develop a methodology to estimate probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) while accounting for changing climate conditions for the southern region of the Province of Quebec, Canada. The Kénogami and Yamaska watersheds are herein of particular interest, since dam failures could lead to major downstream impacts. Precipitable water (w) represents one of the key variables in the estimation process of PMPs. Results of stationary tests indicate that CC will not only affect precipitation and temperature but also the monthly maximum precipitable water, wmax, and the ensuing maximization ratio used for the estimation of PMPs. An up-to-date computational method is developed to maximize w using a non-stationary frequency analysis, and then calculate the maximization ratios. The ratios estimated this way are deemed reliable since they rarely exceed threshold values set for Quebec, and, therefore, provide consistent PMP estimates. The results show an overall significant increase of the PMPs throughout the current century compared to the recent past.

  8. White willow sexual regeneration capacity under estuarine conditions in times of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Denstorf, Julian; Jensen, Kai

    2016-10-01

    Tidal wetlands provide both habitats for coastal populations and wildlife, and ecosystem services for human welfare. Building with nature regarding cost-effective coastal protection is of increasing interest. Much research has been carried out on plant reproduction capacities in mangroves and salt marshes, but less is known on this issue in tidal freshwater wetlands. Willows are being successfully used for bank stabilization in riverine habitats, however, today white willow softwood forests in tidal wetlands are highly fragmented, and restoration is required e.g. by the European Habitats Directive. Recently, tolerance to increasing salinity and tidal flooding was found for vegetative propagules of floodplain willows. However, the establishment of autochthonous sexual recruits is necessary to conserve the genetic diversity of local populations, and thus may be preferable in restoration. The germination and early seedling establishment of Salix alba (white willow) was experimentally studied under simulated estuarine conditions. The species tolerance to increasing salinity (0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2) was tested in a climate chamber, and its tolerance to flooding at different tidal treatments (control, spring tide, daily tide 15 min and 2 h flooding) in the greenhouse. Germination was neither affected by increasing salinity nor by tidal flooding. Salix seedlings established up to salinity 1.5, but cotyledon performance and radicle growth was largely reduced at salinity 2. Under tidal flooding, seedling growth was similar in all treatments. However, in the treatments with daily tides seedling anchorage in the substrate took more than two weeks, and fewer seedlings reached a suitable length to approach the high water line. We assess S. alba sexual regeneration under estuarine conditions as generally possible. Further studies are needed on the effects of sedimentation-erosion processes on willow establishment in the field, especially on feedbacks between Salix survival and

  9. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e. the Flumendosa catchment, using climate model rainfall and atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com). In doing so, we split the historical rainfall record of mean areal precipitation (MAP) in 15-year calibration and 45-year validation periods, and compare the historical rainfall statistics to those obtained from: a) Q-Q corrected climate model rainfall products, and b) synthetic rainfall series generated by the suggested downscaling scheme. To our knowledge, this is the first time that climate model rainfall and statistically downscaled precipitation are compared to catchment-averaged MAP at a daily resolution. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the climate model used and the length of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for the yearly rainfall maxima, where direct statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs shows increased sensitivity to the length of the calibration period and the climate model used. The robustness of the suggested downscaling scheme in modeling rainfall extremes at a daily resolution, is a notable feature that can effectively be used to assess hydrologic risk at a regional level under changing climatic conditions. Acknowledgments The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General Secretariat for Research and Technology), and is co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF) and the Greek State. CRS4 highly acknowledges the contribution of the Sardinian regional authorities.

  10. Present condition of ESCO business for carrying out climate change countermeasures in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The ESCO business in Japan started in 1996. Although there was only one ESCO as of 1996, there are now more than 20 companies and entries from utilities have also performed positively. The market scale of ESCO business was 556 million Euro in 2001, and is expected to grow 50% in 2002. The Japanese government drew up the action plan to cope with COP3 and planned to reduce final energy consumption by 57 million kL-oil equivalent by 2010, of which 1 million kL is expected to be reduced by ESCO business activity. In order to achieve this target, the government contributed the subsidy of 294 million Euro to energy efficiency retrofit for buildings in 2002. In the private sector, the Japan Association of Energy Service Companies (JAESCO) was established in 1999. It has matured into an organization containing 110 members, and a number of new members are currently joining. ESCO business introduction in local authorities has made less progress. However, many local authorities are considering introduction of ESCO schemes. By 2010, when all local authorities will have implemented their climate change countermeasures, it is possible that such programs will grow to be the largest ESCO market. It is expected that the ESCO business in Japan will grow greatly from now on. However, there are also many problems to be solved for introduction. We describe the current situation of the ESCO business in Japan, governmental support for energy efficiency including ESCO business, stance of local authorities, and future market barriers

  11. A coupled Bayesian and fault tree methodology to assess future groundwater conditions in light of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Huang

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining acceptable groundwater levels, particularly in arid areas, while protecting ecosystems, are key measures against desertification. Due to complicated hydrological processes and their inherent uncertainties, investigations of groundwater recharge conditions are challenging, particularly in arid areas under climate changing conditions. To assist planning to protect against desertification, a fault tree methodology, in conjunction with fuzzy logic and Bayesian data mining, are applied to Minqin Oasis, a highly vulnerable regime in northern China. A set of risk factors is employed within the fault tree framework, with fuzzy logic translating qualitative risk data into probabilities. Bayesian data mining is used to quantify the contribution of each risk factor to the final aggregated risk. The implications of both historical and future climate trends are employed for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET to assess water table changes under various future scenarios. The findings indicate that water table levels will continue to drop at the rate of 0.6 m yr−1 in the future when climatic effects alone are considered, if agricultural and industrial production capacity remain at 2004 levels.

  12. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  13. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  14. Modeling the water-energy nexus under changing energy market and climate conditions: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denaro, Simona; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Fumagalli, Elena; Giuliani, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) have been already observed over the last few years and have produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies. This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system located in the Lake Como catchment. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e

  15. Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

  16. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Morales

    Full Text Available Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS. Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+ and nitrate (NO3- concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1 a pipe-and-stone (P&S, (2 advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND and (3 Geomat (GEO, a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide

  17. Modeling Nitrogen Losses in Conventional and Advanced Soil-Based Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems under Current and Changing Climate Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Ivan; Cooper, Jennifer; Amador, José A; Boving, Thomas B

    2016-01-01

    Most of the non-point source nitrogen (N) load in rural areas is attributed to onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS). Nitrogen compounds cause eutrophication, depleting the oxygen in marine ecosystems. OWTS rely on physical, chemical and biological soil processes to treat wastewater and these processes may be affected by climate change. We simulated the fate and transport of N in different types of OWTS drainfields, or soil treatment areas (STA) under current and changing climate scenarios, using 2D/3D HYDRUS software. Experimental data from a mesocosm-scale study, including soil moisture content, and total N, ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-) concentrations, were used to calibrate the model. A water content-dependent function was used to compute the nitrification and denitrification rates. Three types of drainfields were simulated: (1) a pipe-and-stone (P&S), (2) advanced soil drainfields, pressurized shallow narrow drainfield (PSND) and (3) Geomat (GEO), a variation of SND. The model was calibrated with acceptable goodness-of-fit between the observed and measured values. Average root mean square error (RSME) ranged from 0.18 and 2.88 mg L-1 for NH4+ and 4.45 mg L-1 to 9.65 mg L-1 for NO3- in all drainfield types. The calibrated model was used to estimate N fluxes for both conventional and advanced STAs under current and changing climate conditions, i.e. increased soil temperature and higher water table. The model computed N losses from nitrification and denitrification differed little from measured losses in all STAs. The modeled N losses occurred mostly as NO3- in water outputs, accounting for more than 82% of N inputs in all drainfields. Losses as N2 were estimated to be 10.4% and 9.7% of total N input concentration for SND and Geo, respectively. The highest N2 losses, 17.6%, were estimated for P&S. Losses as N2 increased to 22%, 37% and 21% under changing climate conditions for Geo, PSND and P&S, respectively. These findings can provide practitioners

  18. Re-orienting crop improvement for the changing climatic conditions of the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mba Chikelu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A 70% increase in food production is required over the next four decades to feed an ever-increasing population. The inherent difficulties in achieving this unprecedented increase are exacerbated by the yield-depressing consequences of climate change and variations and by the pressures on food supply by other competing demographic and socioeconomic demands. With the dwindling or stagnant agricultural land and water resources, the sought-after increases will therefore be attained mainly through the enhancement of crop productivity under eco-efficient crop production systems. ‘Smart’ crop varieties that yield more with fewer inputs will be pivotal to success. Plant breeding must be re-oriented in order to generate these ‘smart’ crop varieties. This paper highlights some of the scientific and technological tools that ought to be the staple of all breeding programs. We also make the case that plant breeding must be enabled by adequate policies, including those that spur innovation and investments. To arrest and reverse the worrisome trend of declining capacities for crop improvement, a new generation of plant breeders must also be trained. Equally important, winning partnerships, including public-private sector synergies, are needed for 21st century plant breeding to bear fruits. We also urge the adoption of the continuum approach to the management of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture as means to improved cohesion of the components of its value chain. Compellingly also, the National Agricultural Research and Extension System of developing countries require comprehensive overhauling and strengthening as crop improvement and other interventions require a sustained platform to be effective. The development of a suite of actionable policy interventions to be packaged for assisting countries in developing result-oriented breeding programs is also called for.

  19. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Burghoff, O.; Hoffmann, P.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-12-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  20. Performance of a window shutter with phase change material under summer Mediterranean climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The building sector is the largest final end-use consumer of energy in the European Union. Substantial heat losses in buildings occur through glazing areas, so it is crucial to mitigate the energy transfer between through these areas. The use of phase change materials (PCMs) is presently a technology advanced solution to improve the energy performance of building elements, particularly with window blinds or shutter protections. This paper presents the results of an experimental campaign of a window shutter containing PCM during the summer season. The shutter prototype was applied in an outside cell test composed by two compartments (side by side) and oriented to South. It was monitored and analysed the indoor air temperatures, the outside weather conditions and the heat flux of the interior wall partition. During the experiment, the range of the external air temperature changes from 13 °C to 25 °C and the average solar radiation recorded is 237 W m−2 to 306 W m−2. The measured results shows that the compartment with the PCM window shutter can reveals thermal regulating capacity of the indoor temperature about 18%–22%. The maximum and minimum temperature peaks decreased 6% and 11%, respectively. Besides the improvement of the indoor temperatures, the compartment with PCM increased 45 min the time delay to achieve the minimum temperature peak and 60 min to attain the maximum temperature peak, compared to the reference compartment (without PCM). - Highlights: • Incorporation of phase change materials into window shutter. • Resourcing to PCMs as a thermal regulator of indoor temperature. • Analysis of the thermal energy storage system using PCMs. • Experimental campaign of a window shutter incorporating PCM

  1. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  2. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  3. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Houston C Chandler

    Full Text Available The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi, a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014 of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis. Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  4. Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Houston C; Rypel, Andrew L; Jiao, Yan; Haas, Carola A; Gorman, Thomas A

    2016-01-01

    The hydroperiod of ephemeral wetlands is often the most important characteristic determining amphibian breeding success, especially for species with long development times. In mesic and wet pine flatwoods of the southeastern United States, ephemeral wetlands were a common landscape feature. Reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), a federally endangered species, depend exclusively on ephemeral wetlands and require at least 11 weeks to successfully metamorphose into terrestrial adults. We empirically modeled hydroperiod of 17 A. bishopi breeding wetlands by combining downscaled historical climate-model data with a recent 9-year record (2006-2014) of observed water levels. Empirical models were subsequently used to reconstruct wetland hydrologic conditions from 1896-2014 using the downscaled historical climate datasets. Reconstructed hydroperiods for the 17 wetlands were highly variable through time but were frequently unfavorable for A. bishopi reproduction (e.g., only 61% of years, using a conservative estimate of development time [12 weeks], were conducive to larval development and metamorphosis). Using change-point analysis, we identified significant shifts in average hydroperiod over the last century in all 17 wetlands. Mean hydroperiods were shorter in recent years than at any other point since 1896, and thus less suitable for A. bishopi reproduction. We suggest that climate change will continue to impact the reproductive success of flatwoods salamanders and other ephemeral wetland breeders by reducing the number of years these wetlands have suitable hydroperiods. Consequently, we emphasize the importance of conservation and management for mitigating other forms of habitat degradation, especially maintenance of high quality breeding sites where reproduction can occur during appropriate environmental conditions.

  5. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  6. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  7. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  8. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  9. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  10. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  11. Meteorological conditions, climate change, new emerging factors, and asthma and related allergic disorders. A statement of the World Allergy Organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Holgate, Stephen T; Pawankar, Ruby; Ledford, Dennis K; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Al-Ahmad, Mona; Al-Enezi, Fatma; Al-Muhsen, Saleh; Ansotegui, Ignacio; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E; Baker, David J; Bayram, Hasan; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Boulet, Louis-Philippe; Buters, Jeroen T M; D'Amato, Maria; Dorsano, Sofia; Douwes, Jeroen; Finlay, Sarah Elise; Garrasi, Donata; Gómez, Maximiliano; Haahtela, Tari; Halwani, Rabih; Hassani, Youssouf; Mahboub, Basam; Marks, Guy; Michelozzi, Paola; Montagni, Marcello; Nunes, Carlos; Oh, Jay Jae-Won; Popov, Todor A; Portnoy, Jay; Ridolo, Erminia; Rosário, Nelson; Rottem, Menachem; Sánchez-Borges, Mario; Sibanda, Elopy; Sienra-Monge, Juan José; Vitale, Carolina; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

    2015-01-01

    , including: deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves and extreme meteorological events; increased frequency of acute cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone; changes in the frequency of respiratory diseases due to trans-boundary particle pollution; altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens (pollens, molds, and mites); and some infectious disease vectors. According to this report, these impacts will not only affect those with current asthma but also increase the incidence and prevalence of allergic respiratory conditions and of asthma. The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still not well defined, and more studies addressing this topic are needed. Global warming is expected to affect the start, duration, and intensity of the pollen season on the one hand, and the rate of asthma exacerbations due to air pollution, respiratory infections, and/or cold air inhalation, and other conditions on the other hand. PMID:26207160

  12. Meteorological conditions, climate change, new emerging factors, and asthma and related allergic disorders. A statement of the World Allergy Organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amato, Gennaro; Holgate, Stephen T; Pawankar, Ruby; Ledford, Dennis K; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Al-Ahmad, Mona; Al-Enezi, Fatma; Al-Muhsen, Saleh; Ansotegui, Ignacio; Baena-Cagnani, Carlos E; Baker, David J; Bayram, Hasan; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Boulet, Louis-Philippe; Buters, Jeroen T M; D'Amato, Maria; Dorsano, Sofia; Douwes, Jeroen; Finlay, Sarah Elise; Garrasi, Donata; Gómez, Maximiliano; Haahtela, Tari; Halwani, Rabih; Hassani, Youssouf; Mahboub, Basam; Marks, Guy; Michelozzi, Paola; Montagni, Marcello; Nunes, Carlos; Oh, Jay Jae-Won; Popov, Todor A; Portnoy, Jay; Ridolo, Erminia; Rosário, Nelson; Rottem, Menachem; Sánchez-Borges, Mario; Sibanda, Elopy; Sienra-Monge, Juan José; Vitale, Carolina; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

    2015-01-01

    , including: deaths and acute morbidity due to heat waves and extreme meteorological events; increased frequency of acute cardio-respiratory events due to higher concentrations of ground level ozone; changes in the frequency of respiratory diseases due to trans-boundary particle pollution; altered spatial and temporal distribution of allergens (pollens, molds, and mites); and some infectious disease vectors. According to this report, these impacts will not only affect those with current asthma but also increase the incidence and prevalence of allergic respiratory conditions and of asthma. The effects of climate change on respiratory allergy are still not well defined, and more studies addressing this topic are needed. Global warming is expected to affect the start, duration, and intensity of the pollen season on the one hand, and the rate of asthma exacerbations due to air pollution, respiratory infections, and/or cold air inhalation, and other conditions on the other hand.

  13. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  14. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  15. Conceptualising joint knowledge production in regional climate change adaptation projects: success conditions and levers for action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Lamers, M; Zeijl-Rozema, A. van; Dieperink, C.

    2012-01-01

    Matching supply and demand for knowledge in the fields of global change and sustainability is a daunting task. Science and public policy differ in their timeframes, epistemologies, objectives, process-cycles and criteria for judging the quality of knowledge, while global change and sustainability is

  16. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Kanchan Joshi; Preeti Chaturvedi

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  17. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  18. Environmental Change: Precipitation and N, P, K, mg Fertilization Influences on Crop Yield Under Temperate Climate Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    László Phd, Dd. M.

    2009-04-01

    Summary: Agroecological quality has a well estabished dependence on climate-rainfall changes because the water problems are pressing. Therefore, there is, growing concern about the potentially wide ranging risks that climate change would have on these key industries as the nature and extent of anticipated changes have become more evident. It also includes changes in land use and in plant production and their management. These changes are unprecedented in terms of both their rate and their spatial extent. Changes in land use (agrotechnics, soil, cultivation, fertility, quality, protection etc.) and in plant production (plant, nutrition, rotation, protection etc.) are currently the main manifestations. As an interdisciplinary problem it is necessary to study such a complex matter in terms of agricultural production. Generally, among natural catastrophes, droughts and floods cause the greatest problems in field crop production. The droughts and the floods that were experienced in Hungary in the early 1980s have drawn renewed attention to the analyses of these problems. New research on climate change-soil-plant systems are focused on yield and yield quality. This paper reports of the climate changes (rainfall); soil (acidic sandy brown forest) properties, mineral N, P, K, Mg fertilisation level and plant interactions on rye (Secale cereale L.), on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in a long term field experiment set up at Nyírlugos in north-eastern Hungary under temperate climate conditions in 1962. Results are summarised from 1962 to 1990. Main conclusions were as follows: 1. Rye: a, Experimental years were characterised by frequent extremes of precipitation variabilities and changes. b, By an average year, at a satisfactory fertilisation level (N: 90 kg ha-1 and NP, NK, NPK, NPKMg combinations) the maximum yield reached 3.8 t ha-1. But yield was decreased by 17% and by 52% due to drought and excess rainfall, respectively

  19. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  20. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Burghoff, Olaf; Hoffmann, Peter; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2016-07-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  1. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  2. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  3. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  4. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  5. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  6. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  7. Calcium nutrition and climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sonneveld, C.; Voogt, W.

    2009-01-01

    The climatic conditions are one of the most striking differences between the growing conditions of field crops and those of protected crops, especially in the moderate climate zones. The increased temperature and the humidity in greenhouses are the dominating factors responsible for the differences.

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity - The Gaza case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gampe, David; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating seven test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. One of those seven sites is the Gaza Strip, located in the Eastern Mediterranean and part of the Palestinian Autonomous Area, covers an area of 365km² with a length of 35km and 6 to 12km in width. Elevation ranges from sea level up to 104m in the East of the test site. Mean annual precipitation varies from 235mm in the South to 420mm in the North of the area. The inter annual variability of rainfall and the rapid population growth in an highly agricultural used area represent the major challenges in this area. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) is setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. WaSiM was driven with meteorological forcing taken from 4

  9. Information Needs Assessment for Coastal and Marine Management and Policy: Ecosystem Services Under Changing Climatic, Land Use, and Demographic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Kaitlin A.; Granek, Elise F.; Lubitow, Amy

    2015-12-01

    Changing climatic, demographic, and land use conditions are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal, and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions. Here, we suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision makers in the identification of priority data needs (biophysical, economic, and social). This paper uses synthesized interview data to provide insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers working on coastal issues in Oregon, USA. The findings highlight the need to recognize (1) the differing framing of ecosystem services by decision makers versus scientists; and (2) the differing data priorities relevant to inland versus coastal decision makers. The findings further serve to highlight the need for decision makers, scientists, and funders to engage in increased communication. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts toward evidence-based decision making in Oregon and provides a template for further research across the US.

  10. Information Needs Assessment for Coastal and Marine Management and Policy: Ecosystem Services Under Changing Climatic, Land Use, and Demographic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Kaitlin A; Granek, Elise F; Lubitow, Amy

    2015-12-01

    Changing climatic, demographic, and land use conditions are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal, and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions. Here, we suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision makers in the identification of priority data needs (biophysical, economic, and social). This paper uses synthesized interview data to provide insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers working on coastal issues in Oregon, USA. The findings highlight the need to recognize (1) the differing framing of ecosystem services by decision makers versus scientists; and (2) the differing data priorities relevant to inland versus coastal decision makers. The findings further serve to highlight the need for decision makers, scientists, and funders to engage in increased communication. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts toward evidence-based decision making in Oregon and provides a template for further research across the US.

  11. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  12. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  13. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  14. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  15. Coping with difficult weather and snow conditions: Reindeer herders’ views on climate change impacts and coping strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minna T. Turunen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter is a critical season for reindeer herding, with the amount and quality of snow being among the most important factors determining the condition of reindeer and the annual success of the livelihood. Our first aim was to model the future (2035–2064 snow conditions in northern Finland, especially the quantities related to ground ice and/or ice layers within the snow pack, exceptionally deep snow and late snow melt. Secondly, we studied the strategies by which herders cope with the impacts of difficult weather and snow conditions on herding by interviewing 21 herders. SNOWPACK simulations indicate that snow cover formation will be delayed by an average of 19 days and snow will melt 16 days earlier during the period 2035–2064 when compared to 1980–2009. There will be more frequent occurrence of ground ice that persists through the winter and the ice layers in open environments will be thicker in the future. The snow cover will be 26–40% thinner and snow in open environments will be denser. Variability between winters will grow. In interviews, herders indicated that a longer snowless season and thin snow cover would be advantageous for herding due to increased availability of forage, but more frequent icing conditions would cause problems. The most immediate reaction of reindeer to the decreased availability of forage caused by difficult snow conditions is to disperse. This effect is intensified when the lichen biomass on the pastures is low. To cope with the impacts of adverse climatic conditions, herders increase control over their herds, intensify the use of pasture diversity, take reindeer into enclosures and/or start or intensify supplementary feeding. The research also reveals that predators, competing land uses and the high prices of supplementary feed and fuel were the major threats to the herders’ coping capacity. Coping capacity was facilitated by, among other factors, the herders’ experience-based traditional knowledge

  16. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  17. As climate changes, so do glaciers

    OpenAIRE

    Lowell, Thomas V.

    2000-01-01

    Understanding abrupt climate changes requires detailed spatial/temporal records of such changes, and to make these records, we need rapidly responding, geographically widespread climate trackers. Glacial systems are such trackers, and recent additions to the stratigraphic record show overall synchronous response of glacial systems to climate change reflecting global atmosphere conditions.

  18. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  19. Sustainability of socio-hydro system with changing value and preference to an uncertain future climate and economic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuththu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Water-human systems are coupled and display co-evolutionary dynamics influenced by society's values and preference. This has been observed in the Murrumbidgee basin, Australia where water usage initially focused on agriculture production and until mid-1990's favoured agriculture. This turned around as society became more concerned about the degradation of ecosystems and ultimately water was reallocated back towards the environment. This new water management adversely impacted the agriculture sector and created economic stress in the basin. The basin communities were able to transform and cope with water allocation favouring the environment through sectoral transformation facilitated by movement of capital in a free economy, supported by appropriate strategies and funding. This was helped by the adaptive capacity of people through reemployment in other economic sectors of the basin economy, unemployment for a period of time and migration out of the basin, and crop diversification. This study looks to the future and focuses on how water managers could be informed and prepare for un-foreseen issues coming out of societies changing values and preferences and emerging as different systems in the basin interact with each other at different times and speed. The issues of this type that concern the Murray Darling Basin Authority include a renewed focus and priority on food production due to food scarcity; increased impact and frequency of natural disasters (eg. climate change); regional economic diversification due to the growth of peri-urban development in the basin; institutional capacity for water reform due to new political paradigms (eg. new water sharing plans); and improvement in science and technology (eg. farm practices, water efficiency, water reuse). To undertake this, the study uses a coupled socio-hydrological dynamical system that model the major drivers of changing economic conditions, society values and preference, climatic condition and science and

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  2. Evaluating morpho-physiological and quality traits to compliment seed yield under changing climatic conditions in Brassicas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Pushp; Sardana, Virender

    2016-07-01

    A study was conducted under irrigated conditions to test the performance of improved cultivars of Indian mustard (B. juncea), Gobhi sarson (B. napus) and African sarson (B. carinata) under changing climatic conditions. The effect of cultivar, environment and their interactions were significant in mustard and canola gobhi sarson. Environment had significant impact on all the studied traits except for leaf area index (LAI). Cultivar x Year (G x Y) interaction was significant for flowering behavior, days to maturity, SPAD, photosynthetic active radiations (PAR), growth parameters, yield components and yield except photosynthesis photochemical efficiency, relative water content (RWC) and LAI. Cultivar RLC1 surpassed other B. juncea cultivars for yield and had low erucic acid ('0') while GSL1 (non canola), Hyola PAC401 (hybrid canola) and GSC6 (canola) of B. napus were superior in performance for seed yield and possessed low erucic and glucosinolate content ('00'). Higher seed yield was associated with more number of total siliquae/plant, seed weight, biomass, seeds/siliqua, SPAD and RWC. Correlation coefficient revealed high positive association for seed yield with days to maturity (0.639**), plant height (0.982**), secondary branches (0.826**), total siliquae/plant (0.913**), seed weight (0.761**) andbiomass (0.891**). PMID:27498492

  3. Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

    1997-12-31

    This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  4. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  5. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  6. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  7. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  8. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  9. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  10. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  11. Climate Change and Poverty : An Analytical Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Bangalore, Mook; Bonzanigo, Laura; Fay, Marianne; Narloch, Ulf; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; ...

  12. Climatic Conditions in Classrooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevan, Simon M.; Howes, John D.

    1980-01-01

    Presents an overview of research on the ways in which classroom thermal environment, lighting conditions, ion state, and electromagnetic and air pollution affect learning and the performance of students and teachers. (SJL)

  13. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sanchez, Gerardo; Penuelas, Josep

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced re

  14. Realized niche width of a brackish water submerged aquatic vegetation under current environmental conditions and projected influences of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotta, Jonne; Möller, Tiia; Orav-Kotta, Helen; Pärnoja, Merli

    2014-12-01

    Little is known about how organisms might respond to multiple climate stressors and this lack of knowledge limits our ability to manage coastal ecosystems under contemporary climate change. Ecological models provide managers and decision makers with greater certainty that the systems affected by their decisions are accurately represented. In this study Boosted Regression Trees modelling was used to relate the cover of submerged aquatic vegetation to the abiotic environment in the brackish Baltic Sea. The analyses showed that the majority of the studied submerged aquatic species are most sensitive to changes in water temperature, current velocity and winter ice scour. Surprisingly, water salinity, turbidity and eutrophication have little impact on the distributional pattern of the studied biota. Both small and large scale environmental variability contributes to the variability of submerged aquatic vegetation. When modelling species distribution under the projected influences of climate change, all of the studied submerged aquatic species appear to be very resilient to a broad range of environmental perturbation and biomass gains are expected when seawater temperature increases. This is mainly because vegetation develops faster in spring and has a longer growing season under the projected climate change scenario. PMID:24933438

  15. A 10-day heatwave at flowering superimposed on climate change conditions strongly affects production of 22 barley accessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo;

    Extreme climate events are projected to be among the future most challenging constraints to plant development. Heatwaves as well as floods and droughts cause acute changes in the growth environment determining our primary production (Collins et al., 2013). Europe experienced extreme heatwaves...... and incorporate them in breeding programs....

  16. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  17. Simulating the vegetation response to abrupt climate changes under glacial conditions with the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2012-09-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  18. Simulating the vegetation response to abrupt climate changes under glacial conditions with the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere.

    Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with.

    The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO.

    For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  19. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  20. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  1. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  2. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  3. Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

    In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

  4. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  5. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  6. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  7. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  8. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  9. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  10. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  11. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  12. Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for the EU regions. Report for the PESETA II study on the impact of climate change in Europe.

    OpenAIRE

    Barrios, Salvador; IBANEZ RIVAS Juan Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and to provide long-term (2100) scenarios to be used in the general equilibrium GEM-E3 to allow for potential interactions with the rest of the economy. The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach to derive country-wide figures making use of detailed regional data. Our study brings three novel aspects to the existing literature on recreational demand and climate. First, we derive region-sp...

  13. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  14. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  15. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  16. Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Quilbé

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Watershed runoff is closely related to land use, but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada and had two objectives: (i to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC. To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 1980s, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 1990s and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations based on thirty years of daily meteorological series showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet, especially for summer and fall seasons. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification or sustainable development. Simulation results showed that CC would induce an increase of water discharge during winter and a decrease the rest of the year, while land use scenarios would have a more drastic effect, agriculture intensification counterbalancing the effect of CC during summer and fall. Due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another, but this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed.

  17. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  18. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  19. Rapidly changing climatic conditions for wine grape growing in the Okanagan Valley region of British Columbia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayne, Sierra; Forest, Kaya

    2016-06-15

    A statistical analysis was conducted on long-term climate records for sites bordering Okanagan Lake in the Okanagan Valley viticultural region of British Columbia, Canada. Average wine grape growing season temperatures are increasing rapidly in the area over the post-1980 period at rates upwards of 7.0±1.3°C/century. Similar increases in the average dormant season temperature are evident. These temperature changes are likely some of the most extreme observed among the world's wine producing areas during the past few decades. Growing degree day base 10°C (GDD10) has increased by nearly 50% at some locations since the 1970s, resulting in major impacts on the corresponding climate classification for viticulture. If current climate trends continue, the southern and central portions of the region will likely enter Winkler region II within the next few decades, placing them in the same category as well-established warmer wine regions from France, Spain, Italy, and Australia. The large dormant season temperature increases over the last several decades have resulted in the area no longer being a cold season outlier when compared to most other cool-climate viticultural areas. Based on average growing season temperatures, the southern end of Okanagan Lake has moved out of the cool-climate viticultural classification and into the intermediate zone, while the central and northern regions are now at the cool/intermediate viticulture interface, similar to the historical positions of the Rhine Valley in Germany, northern Oregon in the United States, and the Loire Valley, Burgundy-Cote, Burgundy-Beaujolais, and Champagne appelations of France. The corresponding suitable grape species for the area have evolved into warmer region varietals during this time frame, having substantial economic impacts on producers. Increased temperatures are also expected to bring greater threats from agricultural pests, notably Pierce's disease from the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa. PMID:26971218

  20. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  1. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  2. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  3. Abrupt climate change:Debate or action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Hai

    2004-01-01

    Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores,ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits,loess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are,in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be potentially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2emissions to the atmosphere.

  4. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  5. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  6. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  8. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  9. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  10. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  11. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  12. Ocean climate and seal condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crocker Daniel E

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual. Results The mean annual weaning weight of pups declined from 1975 to the late 1990s, a period characterized by a large-scale, basin-wide warm decadal regime that included multiple strong or long-duration El Niños; and increased with a return to a cool decadal regime from about 1999 to 2004. Increased foraging effort and decreased mass gain of adult females, indicative of reduced foraging success and nutritional stress, were associated with high ocean temperatures. Conclusion Despite ranging widely and foraging deeply in cold waters beyond coastal thermoclines in the northeastern Pacific, elephant seals are impacted significantly by ocean thermal dynamics. Ocean warming redistributes prey decreasing foraging success of females, which in turn leads to lower weaning mass of pups. Annual fluctuations in weaning mass, in turn, reflect the foraging success of females during the year prior to giving birth and signals changes in ocean temperature cycles.

  13. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  14. A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with

  15. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  16. Transformation of even-aged European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to uneven-aged management under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence...... of such changes on optimal transformation strategies for an even-aged stand of European Beech in Denmark. For a range of growth change scenarios, represented by changes in site index, optimal harvest policies were determined using a matrix modelling approach and a differential evolution algorithm. Transition...

  17. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  18. EXTREME WINTERS IN XX–XXI CENTURIES AS INDICATORS OF SNOWINESS AND AVALANCHE HAZARD IN THE PAST AND EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Oleynikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Currently, due to the global climate change and increasing frequency of weather events focus is on prediction of climate extremes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies can cause long-term paralysis of social and economic infrastructure of the major mountain regions and even individual states. In winter periods, these anomalies are associated with prolonged heavy snowfalls and associated with them catastrophic avalanches which cause significant social and economic damage. The climate system maintains a certain momentum during periods of adjustment and transition to other conditions in the ratio of heat and moisture and contains a climate «signal» of the climates of the past and the future. In our view seasonal and yearly extremes perform the role of these indicators, study of which enables for a deeper understanding and appreciation of the real situation of the climate periods related to the modern ones. The paper provides an overview of the criteria for selection of extreme winters. Identification of extremely cold winters during the period of instrumental observation and assessment of their snowiness and avalanche activity done for the Elbrus region, which is a model site for study of the avalanche regime in the Central Caucasus. The studies aim to identify the extreme winters in the Greater Caucasus, assess their frequency of occurrence, characterize the scale and intensity of the avalanche formation. The data obtained can be used to identify winter-analogues in the reconstruction and long-term forecast of avalanches. 

  19. Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo;

    a catalogue of 14 indicator-based signs that demonstrate the impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in the different bio-geographical zones of the Nordic region. The indicators have been identified using a systematic and quality, criteria based approach to discern and select...... on population size and range of the polar bear, for example, are scarce, whereas data on the pollen season are extensive. Each indicator is evaluated using a number of quality criteria, including sensitivity to climate change, policy relevance and methodology. Although the indicator framework presented here has......Not only is the Earth's climate changing, our natural world is also being affected by the impact of rising temperatures and changes in climatic conditions. In order to track climate-related changes in Nordic ecosystems, we have identified a number of climate change sensitive indicators. We present...

  20. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  1. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  2. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced...... of a rapid, contemporary evolution, optimal formeasuring species response under constant selection pressure, including organismal physiology.Thus, the methodological approach applied in this study, could prove a valuable tool for improving predictability of field population dynamics during climate change....

  3. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  4. Making sense of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has always occurred naturally but at a pace to which the earth has adapted well. Now, due to human activities like energy utilization and waste disposal, the earth is heating up much faster than earlier. Ecosystems, water resources, food sources, health, and human settlements are getting adversely affected. Floods and droughts are increasing, glaciers are melting, and disease is spreading. The problem is serious and it is time to act. Global consensus has been agreements; mitigation initiatives have been undertaken; hopes are up. The aim of this book is to raise the awareness of secondary school students about climate change and its impacts while enhancing their understanding of global responses. It includes a chapter specific to Indian conditions. Lucidly written and illustrated with anecdotes and visuals, this handbook will catalyse young minds into greater awareness, concern, and, hopefully, remedial action on this global threat

  5. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  6. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review. PMID:22435190

  7. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  8. Climate change and forest ecosystem dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effects of climate change on water relations in forests were studied using several modelling approaches. Of several models tested, the FORGRO model had the highest potential for a reliable estimation of effects of climate change on forests. An evaluation of process-based models of forest growth showed that several models, including FORGRO, were able to produce accurate estimates of carbon and water fluxes at several forest sites of Europe. Responses were in relatively good agreement with the expected responses obtained by experimental studies, and models were able to deal with new conditions and explore the likely effects of climate change. The effect of climate change on forest development was assessed for three forests stands in the Netherlands using a gap model which was made climate sensitive by including the effects of climate change scenario IPCC IS92A on growth (FORGRO results), phenology (FORGRO results), and seed production (regression analysis). Results showed that climate change is likely to cause subtle changes rather than abrupt changes in forest development in the Netherlands, and that forest development on sandy soils in the Netherlands is not likely to be influenced significantly by climate change over the coming 50 years. The impact of climate change on the production, nature and recreation values of forests was studied using a simple economic model, and showed that response are likely to be relatively small during the first century, and are related to the successional status of the forest. Linking of detailed process-based models with gap models enables interpretation of climate change effects beyond a change in tree growth only, and is an important tool for investigating the effects of climate change on the development of mixed forests. The modelling approach presented in this project (process-based growth models -> gap models -> economic model) is a useful tool to support policy decisions in the light of climate change and forests. refs

  9. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  10. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  11. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  12. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  13. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  14. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  15. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  16. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  17. Prognosis of groundwater recharge by means of the simulation tool PCSiWaPro® under the conditions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, M.; Sallwey, J.; Hasan, I.; Graeber, P.-W.

    2012-04-01

    Recent studies showed that varying atmospheric conditions as a result of climate change have a significant impact on the magnitude and time variable development of groundwater recharge. Essentially there are two driving factors that influence groundwater recharge: the temporal distribution of precipitation, and the saturation processes resulting from capillary effects in the unsaturated soil zone. Water balance processes can accurately be modelled by using the Richards' equation for transient flow, together with the Van-Genuchten/Luckner approximation describing hysteresis relationships between water contents and pressure heads in the soil. Precipitation distributions, as boundary conditions for the unsaturated model, can be generated from climate data measurements using statistical analysis tools. These synthetic time series reflect both the real climate conditions in a given model area, as well as statistical variations of rainfall by implementing characteristics of a predefined probability distribution. Depending on the kind of distribution, the resulting time series can represent both annual rainfall variations as well as long-term climate changes. The Institute of Waste Management and Contaminated Site Treatment of the TU Dresden has developed two software programs that help estimate these two driving forces for groundwater recharge. WettGen is a weather generator using a Weibull distribution and Markov chain approximations to create synthetic climate time series. These are applied as an upper boundary condition for PCSiWaPro®, a numerical finite element simulation tool solving the Richards' equation for water balance and a convection dispersion equation for contaminant. The result of this coupled simulation is an outflow at the lower boundary of the PCSiWaPro® model, which can be interpreted as a recharge rate for the underlying aquifer. Considering that climate change scenarios for Germany predict longer dry periods and an increase of extreme precipitation

  18. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  19. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  20. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  1. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  2. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  3. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  4. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  5. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    study the policy instruments for climate change mitigation in China, domestic measures and parts of international cooperation adopted by the Chinese government were reviewed and analysed. Domestic measures consist of administration, regulatory and economic instruments, while China's participation in international agreements on mitigating climate change is mainly by supplying certified emission reductions (CERs) to industrialised countries under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The most well-known instruments, i.e. taxes and emissions trading, are both at a critical stage of discussion before final implementation. Given the necessity for hybrid policies, it is important to optimise the combination of different policy instruments used in a given situation. The Durban Climate Change Conference in 2011 made a breakthrough decision that the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol would begin on 1 January 2013 and emissions limitation or reduction objectives for industrialised countries in the second period were quantified. China was also required to make more substantial commitments on limiting its emissions. The Chinese government announced at the Durban Conference that China will focus on the current mitigation target regarding CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 2020 and will conditionally accept a world-wide legal agreement on climate change thereafter. However, there will be no easy way ahead for China.

  6. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  7. Impact of Climate Change on Natural Snow Reliability, Snowmaking Capacities, and Wind Conditions of Ski Resorts in Northeast Turkey: A Dynamical Downscaling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Cenk Demiroglu

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Many ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971–2000 and 2021–2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year’s week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.

  8. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  9. A 9000 year perspective on carbon accumulation rates under changing hydro-climate and vegetation conditions in a mountain peatland, northern Carpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurdean, Angelica; Panait, Andrei; Gałka, Mariusz; Diaconu, Andrei; Hutchinson, Simon; Mulch, Andreas; Tantau, Ioan; Hickler, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Peatlands, in particular ombrogenous bogs, which entirely depend on water from precipitation, are sensitive to changes in the balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration; and therefore highly suitable for hydro-climatological reconstruction. Peatlands also represent a large carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere. However, little is known about the C sequestration processes in mountain peatlands under various competing drivers of change (climate, vegetation, fire). We applied a multi-proxy approach (bulk density, loss on ignition, total organic carbon, testate amoebae, δ13C in Sphagnum, plant macrofossils, pollen and charcoal) to a peat sequence from a mountain ombrogenous bog (Tǎul Muced) to explore how changes in hydro-climate conditions, peat plant composition and fire have affected long-term physical peat properties and the rate of carbon accumulation over the last 9000 years. Carbon accumulation at this site ranged from 7 to 105 g C cm2 yr1 (mean 23 ± 14 g C cm2 yr_1). We found that high moisture availability (P-E) as inferred from testate amoebae and δ13C values in Sphagnum increased the carbon sink capacity of peatland. The strength of the relationship between the rate of carbon accumulation and climate appears particularly evident over the last millennium when high C accumulation rates correlated with the warm and wet conditions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and lower C accumulation rates with the dry conditions of the Little Ice Age. We also found a significant positive correlation between the rate of C accumulation and changes in vegetation; rates were lowest (17 g C cm2 yr_1), during periods of mixed Sphagnum (primarily S. magellanicum and S. angustifolium) and vascular plant (Cyperaceae, Eriophorum vaginatum) growth and increased (31 g C cm2 yr_1) during the accumulation of Sphagnum peat, regardless the dominant Sphagnum species. We did not find indication of peatland fire during the investigated interval. Our study represents one of the

  10. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  11. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  12. Fossil Plants As Proxies For Climate Change In The Tropics During Greenhouse To Icehouse And Icehouse To Greenhouse Conditions During The Late Paleozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfefferkorn, H. W.; Gastaldo, R. A.; DiMichele, W. A.

    2011-12-01

    Vascular plants first experienced the effects of major glaciation during the Carboniferous (glaciation ~ 326 to 305 million years ago). The response of tropical vegetation to these climatic fluctuations, especially the transitions from greenhouse to icehouse conditions (ice age sensu lato) and back to warm times, can now be characterized based on results from large paleobotanical data sets originally collected to solve stratigraphic and paleoecologic questions. The data come from North America and central Europe, which at that time were part of a single continent situated in the tropics. At the onset of icehouse conditions innovation (species origination) occurred in ever-wet climates and environments, while floras in drier environments were still dominated by holdovers/survivors. The changes that did occur happened step-wise spread over a significant time. During the height of the ice age, glacial-interglacial cycles produced large sea-level fluctuations, and concomitant climatic changes, so that significant areas of continents in the tropics were alternately covered by shallow seas or densely vegetated terrestrial environments. In spite of the repeated destruction of wet lowland habitats during each transgression of the sea, most of the species and the basic configuration of the plant communities in the wetland biome returned again and again. This resilience demonstrates that glacial-interglacial cycles by themselves do not produce extirpations or extinctions. Actually, the Carboniferous icehouse time has the lowest values for extinctions or originations. At the transition from icehouse to greenhouse conditions evolutionary innovation was occurring on a major scale in dry environments while wet environments retained their "conservative" species make up. Thus, environmental threshold-crossing marked both the beginning and end of this cold interval, and produced extinctions and innovation, although a reversal is seen in the environments that support innovation at

  13. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  14. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  15. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  16. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  17. The Sand Seas of northern China: Important sinks and sources of global sediment fluxes and their changing roles during different climate conditions of Late Quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.

    2014-12-01

    Although the occurrence of aeolian sands in sedimentary sequences has been widely used as indicators of desert formation or proxies of desert climate, one should be aware that accumulation of aeolian sands does occur along river channels, in lake shores not necessarily associated with arid environment. Our ongoing geomorphological and paleoenvironmental studies in the deserts of northern China reconfirm that formation of sand seas is dependent on not only erodibility (arising from bare surface due to aridity) and wind power but more importantly sand availability related to sediment cycles under interactions between fluvial, lacustrine and aeolian processes. Here we present our ongoing geomorphological and paleoclimatic research on the Late Quaternary landscape and climatic changes in the Taklamkan Desert of northwestern China, the largest sand sea of China in arid zone, and in the Hunshandake Sandy Land at the east part of the Asian mid-latitude desert belt under semiarid climate. We find out that the occurrence of tall sand dunes in the over 300,000 km2 large Taklamakan Sand Sea is closely related to the sites of intensive fluvial sedimentation and convergence zone of surface winds. In the case of Hunshandake, the dunes (although much smaller) mainly occur along the shorelines of the former lake basins, and sediment sources are generally limited because of open hydrological systems in the south and east portions of this desert. The sedimentological and geomorphological records suggest that the climate has changed between arid and less-arid conditions in both of these deserts during Late Quaternary. Under wetter conditions the Taklamakan acts as an important sink of sediments brought by rivers with headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau and Tianshan, while under more arid conditions it acts as an important global sediment source whose dust is transported not only to East Asia and Pacific but also to Greenland ice via westerlies. The Hunshandake has the same pattern of

  18. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  19. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  20. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  1. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  2. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  3. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  4. Applied climate-change analysis: the climate wizard tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan H Girvetz

    -specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity.

  5. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  6. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  7. Climate change and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  8. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  9. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  10. The impact of climate change on agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    John Quiggin

    2008-01-01

    It is now virtually certain that Australia and the world will experience significant climate change over the next century, as a result of human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases. This note is a brief discussion of the projected effects of climate change on agriculture, under ‘business as usual’ conditions in which global concentrations of CO2 grow steadily and under the assumption that a global mitigation effort successfully stabilises global concentrations o...

  11. On the relative importance of the climate change factors along the river Scheldt considering climate scenarios for upstream inland and downstream coastal (mean sea level and surge) boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntegeka, V.; Willems, P.; Monbaliu, J.

    2012-04-01

    To improve on the efficacy of flood risk mitigation measures, it is essential to investigate the relative importance of the future impact pressures. This is more so in areas which are found to be hot spots for flooding. One such area was identified in the Scheldt region located in Belgium. The Dendermonde area is a place where both the downstream coastal and the upstream river flow boundary conditions interact and jointly control the flood risk. Downstream of this area, the coastal level changes include both the sea level rise and storm surge changes due to climate change impacts on the wind climate over the North Atlantic and North Sea region. Upstream of the Dendermonde area lies the Dender river which introduces an extra pressure on the Dendermonde area. Against this back drop, impact analysis was performed using a hydrodynamic model that accounts for such changes. The climate data for future scenarios were extracted from the climate databases PRUDENCE (http://prudence.dmi.dk), ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/), IPCC AR4 (www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php) and CERA (CLM from MPI-M/MaD). Future changes were derived from the large ensemble set of climate model runs and their effects simulated in the hydrodynamic model based on statistically processed climate change scenarios of sea level rise, SLP change and related storm surge changes and upstream runoff due to changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Changes in SLP were transferred to changes in storm surges at the Scheldt mouth (at Vlissingen) based on a correlation model between the SLP at the Baltic Sea and the storm surge level. This model was derived after analysis of SLP composite maps and SLP-surge correlation maps for days where the surge exceeds given thresholds (for different return periods). Correlations between the inland (rainfall, runoff) and coastal climatic changes were considered. The impact analysis to analyze the importance of the pressures for the Dendermonde area was

  12. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  13. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  14. Climatic impacts of greenhouse gas concentration changes under glacial and interglacial conditions: polar amplification, land/sea warming ratio, atmospheric circulation anomalies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: We study the temperature response of a glacial and an interglacial climate to a greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration change in an ocean-atmosphere coupled model, IPSLCM4. Except for the GHG concentrations which are imposed to different values, the glacial climate is defined from the boundary conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as defined in the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparasion Project (PMIP2). The interglacial climate consists of modern boundary conditions. The response to a GHG concentration varying from LGM to pre-industrial values is similar for both boundary conditions, but enhanced under modern ones. The model simulates the classical amplification of the temperature response in the northern high latitudes compared to lower latitudes and over the land surfaces compared to the oceanic ones. The physical reasons for the different temperature warmings according to the latitude and to the surface type are studied through an analysis of the energy fluxes anomalies. The high latitudes warm more due to strong sea-ice and snow albedo feedbacks, along with cloud cover increases that result in a radiative warming. Concerning the land-sea warming ratio, our study highlights the role played by the evaporation differential response between the two types of surface. The latitudinal variations of the land/sea warming ratio are due to variations in the anomalies in albedo changes, evaporation, cloud cover change and water vapour air content. The local amplifications or attenuations of the zonally-averaged warming are enhanced under modern boundary conditions compared to glacial ones, due to a greater land albedo feedback, water vapour increase and enhanced air/sea sensible heat fluxes changes in the northern hemisphere and mostly due to oceanic advection processes in the southern hemisphere. The consequences in terms of atmospheric circulation are anomalous stationary waves in the northern hemisphere with lower pressures over lands

  15. Climate Change Influences on Antarctic Bird Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korczak-Abshire, Małgorzata

    2010-01-01

    Rapid changes in the major environmental variables like: temperature, wind and precipitation have occurred in the Antarctic region during the last 50 years. In this very sensitive region, even small changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Then the climate change poses a new challenge to the survival of Antarctic wildlife. As important bioindicators of changes in the ecosystem seabirds and their response to the climate perturbations have been recorded. Atmospheric warming and consequent changes in sea ice conditions have been hypothesized to differentially affect predator populations due to different predator life-history strategies and substantially altered krill recruitment dynamics.

  16. Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, Hollie M; Gates, Ruth D

    2015-08-01

    Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm P(CO2)) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm P(CO2)) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms. PMID:26246609

  17. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  18. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  19. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  20. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  1. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  2. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  3. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  4. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  5. A hybrid approach to incorporating climate change and variability into climate scenario for impact assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, C. Adam

    2014-01-01

    Traditional 'delta-change' approach of scenario generation for climate change impact assessment to water resources strongly depends on the selected base-case observed historical climate conditions that the climate shocks are to be super-imposed. This method disregards the combined effect of climate change and the inherent hydro-climatological variability in the system. Here we demonstrated a hybrid uncertainty approach in which uncertainties in historical climate variability are combined with...

  6. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  7. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  8. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  9. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  10. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  11. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  12. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  13. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  14. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-09-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is

  15. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    , precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now....... Congruent results of meta-analyses based on warming experiments, however, do not reflect a better general understanding of temperature effects, because the potential effects of more complex changes in temperature, including extreme events, are not yet covered well. Heat, frost, seasonality, and spatial...

  16. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies...... in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows...... in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands....

  17. Acclimation of leaf cohorts expanded under light and water stresses: an adaptive mechanism of Eucryphia cordifolia to face changes in climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Loreto V; Coopman, Rafael E; Rojas, Roke; Escandón, Antonio B; Flexas, Jaume; Galmés, Jeroni; García-Plazaola, José I; Gago, Jorge; Cabrera, Hernán M; Corcuera, Luis J

    2014-12-01

    Eucryphia cordifolia Cav. is a long-lived evergreen tree species, commonly found as a canopy emergent tree in the Chilean temperate rain forest. This species displays successive leaf cohorts throughout the entire growing season. Thus, full leaf expansion occurs under different environmental conditions during growing such as air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and the progress of moderate water stress (WS). These climate variations can be reflected as differences in anatomical and physiological characteristics among leaf cohorts. Thus, we investigated the potential adaptive role of different co-existing leaf cohorts in seedlings grown under shade, drought stress or a combination of the two. Photosynthetic and anatomical traits were measured in the first displayed leaf cohort and in a subsequent leaf cohort generated during the mid-season. Although most anatomical and photosynthetic pigments did not vary between cohorts, photosynthetic acclimation did occur in the leaf cohort and was mainly driven by biochemical processes such as leaf nitrogen content, Rubisco carboxylation capacity and maximal Photosystem II electron transport rather than CO2 diffusion conductance. Cohort acclimation could be relevant in the context of climate change, as this temperate rainforest will likely face some degree of summer WS even under low light conditions. We suggest that the acclimation of the photosynthetic capacity among current leaf cohorts represents a well-tuned mechanism helping E. cordifolia seedlings to face a single stress like shade or drought stress, but is insufficient to cope with simultaneous stresses.

  18. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  19. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip;

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  20. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  1. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  2. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  3. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  4. 10 CFR 960.4-2-4 - Climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Climatic changes. 960.4-2-4 Section 960.4-2-4 Energy... REPOSITORY Postclosure Guidelines § 960.4-2-4 Climatic changes. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be... years would not adversely affect waste isolation. (2) A geologic setting in which climatic changes...

  5. Helping Small-Holder Farmers Deal with Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kelemu, Segenet

    2008-01-01

    Agriculture is a major activity and land use across the developing world; it is vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. Climate change affects agricultural systems and production in various ways, for example by changing agro-ecological conditions. Changes in the pattern and amount of precipitation, as well as temperature, can directly affect the suitability of cultivable land for agricultural production, food supplies and food utilisation. Climate change can affect food security, depend...

  6. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  7. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  8. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  9. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  10. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  11. Wind energy under cold climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B.

    1999-03-01

    There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

  12. Climate change and health in Earth's future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C.; Butler, Colin D.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-02-01

    Threats to health from climate change are increasingly recognized, yet little research into the effects upon health systems is published. However, additional demands on health systems are increasingly documented. Pathways include direct weather impacts, such as amplified heat stress, and altered ecological relationships, including alterations to the distribution and activity of pathogens and vectors. The greatest driver of demand on future health systems from climate change may be the alterations to socioeconomic systems; however, these "tertiary effects" have received less attention in the health literature. Increasing demands on health systems from climate change will impede health system capacity. Changing weather patterns and sea-level rise will reduce food production in many developing countries, thus fostering undernutrition and concomitant disease susceptibility. Associated poverty will impede people's ability to access and support health systems. Climate change will increase migration, potentially exposing migrants to endemic diseases for which they have limited resistance, transporting diseases and fostering conditions conducive to disease transmission. Specific predictions of timing and locations of migration remain elusive, hampering planning and misaligning needs and infrastructure. Food shortages, migration, falling economic activity, and failing government legitimacy following climate change are also "risk multipliers" for conflict. Injuries to combatants, undernutrition, and increased infectious disease will result. Modern conflict often sees health personnel and infrastructure deliberately targeted and disease surveillance and eradication programs obstructed. Climate change will substantially impede economic growth, reducing health system funding and limiting health system adaptation. Modern medical care may be snatched away from millions who recently obtained it.

  13. An impact of environmental changes on flows in the reach scale under a range of climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamuz, Emilia; Romanowicz, Renata J.

    2016-04-01

    The present paper combines detection and adequate identification of causes of changes in flow regime at cross-sections along the Middle River Vistula reach using different methods. Two main experimental set ups (designs) have been applied to study the changes, a moving three-year window and low- and high-flow event based approach. In the first experiment, a Stochastic Transfer Function (STF) model and a quantile-based statistical analysis of flow patterns were compared. These two methods are based on the analysis of changes of the STF model parameters and standardised differences of flow quantile values. In the second experiment, in addition to the STF-based also a 1-D distributed model, MIKE11 was applied. The first step of the procedure used in the study is to define the river reaches that have recorded information on land use and water management changes. The second task is to perform the moving window analysis of standardised differences of flow quantiles and moving window optimisation of the STF model for flow routing. The third step consists of an optimisation of the STF and MIKE11 models for high- and low-flow events. The final step is to analyse the results and relate the standardised quantile changes and model parameter changes to historical land use changes and water management practices. Results indicate that both models give consistent assessment of changes in the channel for medium and high flows. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research was supported by the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences through the Young Scientist Grant no. 3b/IGF PAN/2015.

  14. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  15. Climate Change and Migration in the MENA Region: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Liverani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and migration are major concerns in the MENA region, yet the empirical evidence on the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on migration remains limited. Information is broadly lacking on how households in vulnerable areas perceive changes in the climate, how they are affected by extreme weather events, whether they benefit from community and government programs to help them cope with and adapt to a changing climate, and how these conditions influence the decisio...

  16. Linkages between climate change, water and nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an overview of projected changes in various climate properties, water supply and extreme weather events under different climate change scenarios. An assessment of impacts of these changes on nuclear energy is provided, highlighting the special characteristics of the industry and the importance of making nuclear facilities 'climate and weather proof' with a view to the projected changes in climatic and weather conditions. (author)

  17. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  18. Large increase in nest size linked to climate change: an indicator of life history, senescence and condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Anders Pape; Nielsen, Jan Tøttrup

    2015-11-01

    Many animals build extravagant nests that exceed the size required for successful reproduction. Large nests may signal the parenting ability of nest builders suggesting that nests may have a signaling function. In particular, many raptors build very large nests for their body size. We studied nest size in the goshawk Accipiter gentilis, which is a top predator throughout most of the Nearctic. Both males and females build nests, and males provision their females and offspring with food. Nest volume in the goshawk is almost three-fold larger than predicted from their body size. Nest size in the goshawk is highly variable and may reach more than 600 kg for a bird that weighs ca. 1 kg. While 8.5% of nests fell down, smaller nests fell down more often than large nests. There was a hump-shaped relationship between nest volume and female age, with a decline in nest volume late in life, as expected for senescence. Clutch size increased with nest volume. Nest volume increased during 1977-2014 in an accelerating fashion, linked to increasing spring temperature during April, when goshawks build and start reproduction. These findings are consistent with nest size being a reliable signal of parental ability, with large nest size signaling superior parenting ability and senescence, and also indicating climate warming. PMID:26154876

  19. Climatic Conditions, Cultural Diversity, and Labor Productivity

    OpenAIRE

    Gundlach, Erich; Matus-Velasco, Ximena

    2000-01-01

    Countries with the highest labor productivity overwhelmingly lie in the world's temperate climatic zones far away from the equator. The question we address is whether climatic conditions as measured by distance from the equator remain correlated with labor productivity after other variables are taken into account. We find that climatic conditions do not have a significant impact on labor productivity once we control for factor accumulation and cultural diversity within countries. Our regressi...

  20. Effect of Hot Climatic Conditions With Different Types of Housing on Productive Efficiency and Physiological Changes in Buffalo Calves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present study was planned to investigate the effect of housing types under both mild and hot periods of the year on twenty four buffalo calves aged 8-10 months with average body weight 156.8 kg. The study included two periods each was of 3 months. The first period was carried out during mild conditions while the second period was carried out during hot conditions. Averages of air temperature and relative humidity values at midday inside the farm building were 20.8 ± 1.0 degree C and 72.07 ± 2.1% under mild conditions and 35.93± 1.4 degree C and 58.23 ± 1.5 under the hot period, respectively. The estimated temperature-humidity index of values 20.23 and 33.17 during mild and hot conditions, respectively, indicated absence of heat stress during the first period and exposing the animals to very severe heat stress during the second period. The animals during the two experimental periods were fed the concentrate feed mixture according to body weight and daily gain with rice straw offered ad libitum. In each of the two studied periods, the animals were divided into two equal groups according to type of housing system. The animals in the first group (6 calves) were tied from their neck in stall barn in two rows tail to tail while the animals in the second group (6 calves) were left loose housing in the barn. The results showed that heat stress conditions of summer period induced significant decreases in daily body weight gain, total proteins, albumin, globulin, glucose, total lipids, total cholesterol, triglycerides, creatinine, sodium, potassium, calcium, inorganic phosphorus and GGT as well as T4 , T3 , parathormone hormonal levels. On the other hand, significant increase in respiration rate, temperatures of rectal and skin, urea, cortisol, GOT and GPT. Concerning the effect of housing type, there were significant differences in daily body gain of buffalo calves between free and tied through the first two months of experiment, so, daily body gain of buffalo

  1. Spatial, Temporal and Forecast Evaluation of Rivers’ Streamflow of the Drainage Basin of the Upper Tisa under the Conditions of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Lukianets; Iurii Obodovskyi

    2015-01-01

    The drainage basin of the Upper Tisa is considered to be one of the most flood hazardous areas of the Ukrainian Carpathians. Climate changes in the past decade made a significant impact on the course of hydrological processes, including streamflow. The studies of the processes at global and regional levels are of great importance for grounding of flood protection operations as well as arrangement of measures for adaptation to climate change. The study considers approaches to evaluation of cha...

  2. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  3. Arctic Shipping Emissions in the Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Vihanninjoki, Vesa

    2014-01-01

    Due to the Arctic climate change and the related diminishing of Arctic sea ice cover, the general conditions for Arctic shipping are changing. The retreat of Arctic sea ice opens up new routes for maritime transportation, both trans-Arctic passages and new alternatives within the Arctic region. Hence the amount of Arctic shipping is presumed to increase. Despite the observed development, the sailing conditions in the Arctic waters will remain challenging. Thus particular attention will be ...

  4. Examination of seed characters of Vachellia farnesiana (L.) Wight & Arn. as potentially applicable species in Serbia under climate change conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Grbić Mihailo; Skočajić Dragana; Đukić Matilda; Đunisijević-Bojović Danijela; Marković Marija

    2014-01-01

    Seeds of sweet acacia (Vachellia farnesiana (L.) Wight & Arn.) were mechanically scarified and treated with concentrated sulfuric acid in order to determine the permeability degree of the seed coat. The obtained results suggest a stronger form of seed coat dormancy that prevents potential invasiveness after introduction. The species is recommended for limited cultivation in outdoor conditions and unlimited use in interior spaces as full size or bonsai trees...

  5. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  6. Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River in North-Western China under conditions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumbaur, C.; Thevs, N.; Disse, M.; Ahlheim, M.; Brieden, A.; Cyffka, B.; Doluschitz, R.; Duethmann, D.; Feike, T.; Frör, O.; Gärtner, P.; Halik, Ü.; Hill, J.; Hinnenthal, M.; Keilholz, P.; Kleinschmit, B.; Krysanova, V.; Kuba, M.; Mader, S.; Menz, C.; Othmanli, H.; Pelz, S.; Schroeder, M.; Siew, T. F.; Stender, V.; Stahr, K.; Thomas, F. M.; Welp, M.; Wortmann, M.; Zhao, X.; Chen, X.; Jiang, T.; Zhao, C.; Zhang, X.; Luo, J.; Yimit, H.; Yu, R.

    2014-10-01

    The Tarim River Basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin of China and one of the largest in whole Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim River solely depends on river water. This applies for anthropogenic activities (e.g. agriculture) as well as for the natural ecosystems so that both compete for water. The on-going increase of water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes formed the consortium SuMaRiO (www.sumario.de), which aims at gaining a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River Basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River Basin. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary to the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades due to enhanced glacier melt. Alone from 1989 to 2011, the area under agriculture more than doubled. Thereby, cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale farming to large-scale intensive farming. The major natural ecosystems along the Aksu and Tarim River are riparian ecosystems: Riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland. Within the SuMaRiO Cluster the focus was laid on the Tugai forests, with Populus euphratica as dominant tree, because the most productive and species-rich natural ecosystems can be found among those forests. On sites with groundwater distance of less than 7.5 m the annual increments correlated with river runoffs of the previous year. But, the further downstream along the Tarim River, the more the natural river dynamics ceased, which impacts on the recruitment of Populus euphratica. Household surveys

  7. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  8. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  9. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  10. Examination of seed characters of Vachellia farnesiana (L. Wight & Arn. as potentially applicable species in Serbia under climate change conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grbić Mihailo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Seeds of sweet acacia (Vachellia farnesiana (L. Wight & Arn. were mechanically scarified and treated with concentrated sulfuric acid in order to determine the permeability degree of the seed coat. The obtained results suggest a stronger form of seed coat dormancy that prevents potential invasiveness after introduction. The species is recommended for limited cultivation in outdoor conditions and unlimited use in interior spaces as full size or bonsai trees. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Istraživanje klimatskih promena i njihovog uticaja na životnu sredinu: praćenje uticaja, adaptacija i ublažavanje

  11. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  12. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  13. Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Carroll; Joshua J Lawler; Roberts, David R; Andreas Hamann

    2015-01-01

    Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic con...

  14. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  15. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  16. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  17. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  18. Eco-hydrologic Modeling of Rangelands: Evaluating a New Carbon Allocation Approach and Simulating Ecosystem Response to Changing Climate and Management Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Tague, C.; Choate, J. S.; Adam, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    More than one-third of the United States' land cover is comprised of rangelands, which support both forage production and livestock grazing. For grasses in both semi-arid and humid environments, small changes in precipitation and temperature, as well as grazing, can have disproportionately larger impacts on ecosystem processes. For example, these areas may experience large response pulses under highly variable precipitation and other potential future changes. The ultimate goal of this study is to provide information on the interactions between management activities, climate and ecosystem processes to inform sustainable rangeland management. The specific objectives of this paper are to (1) evaluate a new carbon allocation strategy for grasses and (2) test the sensitivity of this improved strategy to changes in climate and grazing strategies. The Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) is a process-based, watershed-scale model that simulates hydrology and biogeochemical cycling with dynamic soil and vegetation modules. We developed a new carbon allocation algorithm for partitioning net primary productivity (NPP) between roots and leaves for grasses. The 'hybrid' approach represents a balance between preferential partitioning due to environmental conditions and age-related growth. We evaluated this new allocation scheme at the point-scale at a variety of rangeland sites in the U.S. using observed biomass measurements and against existing allocation schemes used in RHESSys. Additionally, changes in the magnitude, frequency, and intensity of precipitation and temperature were used to assess ecosystem responses using our new allocation scheme. We found that changes in biomass and NPP were generally more sensitive to changes in precipitation than changes in temperature. At more arid sites, larger percent reductions in historic baseline precipitation affected biomass and NPP more negatively. We incorporated grazing impacts through biomass removal. We found that

  19. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  20. Climate change and persistent high temperatures: does it matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES: DOES IT MATTER?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  2. Faces of a changing climate: semi-quantitative multi-mycotoxin analysis of grain grown in exceptional climatic conditions in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlig, Silvio; Eriksen, Gunnar Sundstøl; Hofgaard, Ingerd Skow; Krska, Rudolf; Beltrán, Eduardo; Sulyok, Michael

    2013-10-01

    Recent climatological research predicts a significantly wetter climate in Southern Norway as a result of global warming. Thus, the country has already experienced unusually wet summer seasons in the last three years (2010-2012). The aim of this pilot study was to apply an existing multi-analyte LC-MS/MS method for the semi-quantitative determination of 320 fungal and bacterial metabolites in Norwegian cereal grain samples from the 2011 growing season. Such knowledge could provide important information for future survey and research programmes in Norway. The method includes all regulated and well-known mycotoxins such as aflatoxins, trichothecenes, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and zearalenone. In addition, a wide range of less studied compounds are included in the method, e.g., Alternaria toxins, ergot alkaloids and other metabolites produced by fungal species within Fusarium, Penicillium and Aspergillus. Altogether, 46 metabolites, all of fungal origin, were detected in the 76 barley, oats and wheat samples. The analyses confirmed the high prevalence and relatively high concentrations of type-A and -B trichothecenes (e.g., deoxynivalenol up to 7230 µg/kg, HT-2 toxin up to 333 µg/kg). Zearalenone was also among the major mycotoxins detected (maximum concentration 1670 µg/kg). Notably, several other Fusarium metabolites such as culmorin, 2-amino-14,16-dimethyloctadecan-3-ol and avenacein Y were co-occurring. Furthermore, the most prevalent Alternaria toxin was alternariol with a maximum concentration of 449 µg/kg. A number of Penicillium and Aspergillus metabolites were also detected in the samples, e.g., sterigmatocystin in concentrations up to 20 µg/kg.

  3. Faces of a Changing Climate: Semi-Quantitative Multi-Mycotoxin Analysis of Grain Grown in Exceptional Climatic Conditions in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Sulyok

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent climatological research predicts a significantly wetter climate in Southern Norway as a result of global warming. Thus, the country has already experienced unusually wet summer seasons in the last three years (2010–2012. The aim of this pilot study was to apply an existing multi-analyte LC-MS/MS method for the semi-quantitative determination of 320 fungal and bacterial metabolites in Norwegian cereal grain samples from the 2011 growing season. Such knowledge could provide important information for future survey and research programmes in Norway. The method includes all regulated and well-known mycotoxins such as aflatoxins, trichothecenes, ochratoxin A, fumonisins and zearalenone. In addition, a wide range of less studied compounds are included in the method, e.g., Alternaria toxins, ergot alkaloids and other metabolites produced by fungal species within Fusarium, Penicillium and Aspergillus. Altogether, 46 metabolites, all of fungal origin, were detected in the 76 barley, oats and wheat samples. The analyses confirmed the high prevalence and relatively high concentrations of type-A and -B trichothecenes (e.g., deoxynivalenol up to 7230 µg/kg, HT-2 toxin up to 333 µg/kg. Zearalenone was also among the major mycotoxins detected (maximum concentration 1670 µg/kg. Notably, several other Fusarium metabolites such as culmorin, 2-amino-14,16-dimethyloctadecan-3-ol and avenacein Y were co-occurring. Furthermore, the most prevalent Alternaria toxin was alternariol with a maximum concentration of 449 µg/kg. A number of Penicillium and Aspergillus metabolites were also detected in the samples, e.g., sterigmatocystin in concentrations up to 20 µg/kg.

  4. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  5. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  6. Changes in deep-sea fish and crustacean communities at 1000-2200 m in the Western Mediterranean after 25 years: Relation to hydro-climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartes, J. E.; Maynou, F.; Fanelli, E.; López-Pérez, C.; Papiol, V.

    2015-03-01

    Long-term changes in the biomass, diversity and composition of deep-living fish and decapods from the Balearic Basin (western Mediterranean) have been compared between two periods, 1985-1992 vs. 2007-2012, based on 106 bottom trawls performed at 1000-2250 m. Relationships have been identified between the changes in community composition and the hydroclimatic conditions (e.g. NAO, temperature, salinity and dissolved O2) of the area. We found a generalized deepening of middle-slope communities (950-1250 m), especially among decapods, which is suggested (from GLM results) to have been a response to the long-term increase in salinity of the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW), located above the level sampled to ca. 700 m. Even more pronounced was the shallowing of all of the lower slope species (1600-2250 m), accompanied by a significant decrease of biomass from 1985-1992 to 2007-2012. This last tendency would be done to a combination of factors: long-term decrease of O2 in the bottom-boundary layer, greater degradation of POM arriving on the bottom due to temperature increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) and probably a decrease of Chl a at the surface and, thus, of production. The influence of climatic oscillations (NAO) on differences found between 1985-1992 and 2007-2012 seems secondary, likely because the NAO did not show significant differences between the two periods. Some plankton-feeding species showed an increase of density during high/positive NAO (e.g. Alepocephalus rostratus), while some benthos feeders increased during low/negative NAO (e.g. Aristeus antennatus, mainly juveniles). The increase of rainfall and advective fluxes under low/negative NAO (i.e., in 2007-2012) may increase the formation of the nepheloid layer identified over 1200-1400 m in the area (Cartes et al., 2013a), linked to zooplankton aggregation in that depth range. Greater food availability could explain the generalized migration by both middle and lower slope species

  7. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  8. EMS adaptation for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  9. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  10. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people. PMID:26920851

  11. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  12. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  13. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  14. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Climate Change Education for Engineering Undergraduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhaniyala, S.; Powers, S.

    2011-12-01

    The outreach and educational component of my NSF-CAREER grant focused on the development of a new undergraduate course on climate change for engineering undergraduate students and development of project-based course modules for middle and high-school students. Engineering students have minimal formal education on climate issues, but are increasingly finding themselves in positions where they have to participate and address climate change and mitigation issues. Towards this end, we developed a new three-credit course, entitled Global Climate Change: Science, Engineering, and Policy. With a focus on engineering students, this course was structured as a highly quantitative course, taught through an inquiry-based pedagogical approach. The students used a combination of historical climate data from ground-stations and satellites and model results of future climate conditions for different scenarios to ascertain for themselves the current extent of climate change and likely future impacts. Students also combined mitigation efforts, concentrated on geoengineering and alternate energy choices, with climate modeling to determine the immediacy of such efforts. The impacts of the course on the students were assessed with a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches that used pre-post climate literacy and engineering self-efficacy surveys as well as qualitative focus group discussions at the end of the course. I will discuss our undergraduate course development effort and the primary outcomes of the course. I will also briefly describe our k-12 outreach effort on the development of course modules for project-based learning related to air quality and atmospheric science topics.

  16. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. Emissions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  17. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  18. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  19. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  20. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  1. Understanding the school 'climate': secondary school children and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This interdisciplinary study analyzes the production, circulation and reception of messages on climate change in secondary schools in France. The objective is to understand how political and educational policy initiatives influence the ways in which schools contribute to creating youngsters' perceptions and opinions about climate change. In order to study the conditions of production and reception of information about climate change, a survey was conducted in four French secondary schools, in the 'Bas Rhin' and 'Nord' departments, and local political actors in each department were interviewed. The cross disciplinary analytical and methodological approach uses the tools of sociological inquiry, information science, and political science: questionnaires and interviews were conducted with members of the educational and governmental communities of each school and department, semiotic and discursive analyses of corpuses of documents were carried out, in order to characterize documents used by students and teachers at school or in more informal contexts; the nature and extent of the relations between the political contexts and school directives and programs were also discussed. This interdisciplinary approach, combining sociological, communicational, and political methods, was chosen in response to the hypothesis that three types of variables (social, communicational and political) contribute to the structuring and production of messages about climate change in schools. This report offers a contextualized overview of activities developed within the four secondary schools to help sensitize children to the risks associated with climate change. A study of the networks of individuals (teachers, staff, members of associations, etc.) created in and around the school environment is presented. The degree of involvement of these actors in climate change programs is analyzed, as it is related to their motives and objectives, to the school discipline taught, and to the position

  2. Genetic plant improvement and climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magno Antonio Patto Ramalho

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change for the agribusiness in Brazil have been widely debated. The issue isdiscussed in this publication to show the expected problems, particularly those associated with increases in temperature andwater stress. It is emphasized that the genetic improvement of plants, based on the experience in the past, has much tocontribute to mitigate these problems. To invest in the breeding of new cultivars, selected under stress conditions, is certainlythe best possible strategy for agriculture to cope with changes caused by climate alterations.

  3. Pentagon's secret report about climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book reveals the content of a secret report ordered by the department of defense of the Pentagon which aims at foreseeing the possible consequences of a rapid climatic change on the security of the USA. The report is based on the most recent studies about the general climate conditions at the worldwide scale. They foresee for 2010 a fast cooling following several years of increasing warming up. A realistic detailed scenario of the geopolitical consequences of this change is made: floods, conflicts, populations migration, lack of drinkable water, starvation, generalized riots etc. (J.S.)

  4. Climate Conditioning for the Learning Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins and Will, Architects, Chicago, IL.

    Discusses heating, cooling, and ventilation for the classroom in relationship to students' learning abilities. It is designed to assist school boards, administrators, architects and engineers in understanding the beneficial effects of total climate control, and in evaluating the climate conditioning systems available for schools. Discussion…

  5. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  6. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  7. Glacier response to changing climate condition : the role of circulation variability and long-term trends over the Tibetan Plateau, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caidong, C.

    2008-07-01

    This study focuses on glacier response to changing climatic condition, the role of atmospheric circulation variability and long-term trends over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In particular, this study concerns circulation regimes over the TP and related precipitation and temperature variations in Tibet Autonomous Region; modelled mass balance response of the Xibu glacier (which is situated in the Nyainqentanglha mountain range) to the circulation variability and the mass balance response to long term trends that is not directly related to circulation variability. The research was motivated by the importance of understanding present-day climate condition over the Tibetan Plateau and to understand how much of last decade's increases in temperature and glacier retreat could be linked to circulation changes and how much was due to other causes. The first paper, the focus is on using the six years of the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) satellite data (1998 - 2005) to identify the spatial pattern of the dry season (October - April) precipitation over the TP which is small, but important for snow accumulation over the plateau. The paper outline the use of k-mean clustering as a method for finding different weather types and the precipitation variability is tried explained with physical interpretation of the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using daily reanalysis from NCEP/NCAR (1957 - 2005). The results show how the topographic effect and flow direction plays an important role in controlling the distribution of precipitation rates over the plateau. The Himalayas and Karakorum Mountain ranges act as barriers for south and south-west moist air flow and deplete the air of much of its moisture before it reaches the Plateau. In addition, when the air begin to descend on the leeward side of the mountains, they are creating a rain shadow. According to the TRMM satellite estimates average October-April Tibetan Plateau (defined as areas higher than 4,000 m

  8. An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

  9. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  10. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO2 emissions. (Author)

  11. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future. PMID:27300144

  12. Kyoto protocol on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article reports a short overview of main points of Kyoto protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on climate Change and of some options still to be defined, evolutions of Italian emissions with respect to other European countries, check of decree by inter ministerial committee on economic planning on national plan to reduce emissions

  13. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or insects can increase. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and flies may occur in greater numbers over longer periods during the year, and expand the locations in which they thrive. Climate change also affects air movement and quality by increasing ...

  14. Climate benefits of changing diet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Elzen, M.; Kabat, P.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in

  15. Symposium on Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Schmalensee

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change, and policies to slow it or adapt to it, may be among the primary forces shaping the world's economy throughout the next century and beyond. Nonetheless, popular treatments of this issue commonly ignore economics. This introductory essay sketches some of the uncertainties and research questions.

  16. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  17. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  18. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  19. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  20. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  1. Population, poverty, and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Das Gupta, Monica

    2013-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  2. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  3. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  4. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  5. Effects of Climate Change in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    The report analyzes the vulnerability of Swedish ecological and technical systems to predicted changes in the global climate. The analysis shows, for example, that plant ecosystems will be shifted northward and that their species composition will change. Technical systems, which are normally adapted to local conditions, may have to be modified to satisfy different design parameters. The report examines a few selected systems, with no attempt at being comprehensive. 44 refs

  6. Spatial, Temporal and Forecast Evaluation of Rivers’ Streamflow of the Drainage Basin of the Upper Tisa under the Conditions of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Lukianets

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The drainage basin of the Upper Tisa is considered to be one of the most flood hazardous areas of the Ukrainian Carpathians. Climate changes in the past decade made a significant impact on the course of hydrological processes, including streamflow. The studies of the processes at global and regional levels are of great importance for grounding of flood protection operations as well as arrangement of measures for adaptation to climate change. The study considers approaches to evaluation of changes of hydrologic balance elements of the investigated drainage basin in the period of the 20th century. A retrospective analysis of the changes is provided in order to find out relationship between the streamflow and the climate aspects which influence it. A statistical analysis of a series of long-term observations was performed in order to test their steadiness and homogeneity. Inter-row connections were determined between changes in precipitation regime, air temperature of the surface and streamflow in the modern period (1991–2012 compared to the period of the climatic norm (1961–1990. The closest interconnection between mentioned variables is observed for the warm period. For the cold period such dependencies are satisfactory. Consequently, an equation was derived for conversion of the expected influence of climate change on the streamflow. Results of the regional model REMO-ESNAM5 were used to perform forecast evaluation of hydrological consequences of climate change. The projection of changes of climatic aspects for the drainage basin of the Upper Tisa for the time period 2021–2050 as well as А1B sustainable development scenario was created. The evaluation of possible changes of average, seasonal and annual streamflow in the basin is presented up to the middle of the 21st century. Annual redistribution is clearly registered. Forecast evaluations were performed of the maximum streamflow changes, floods frequency and their recurrence throughout

  7. Social Capital, Place Meanings, and Perceived Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Anderson, Dorothy H.; Moore, Roger L.

    2012-01-01

    This research analyzes individuals' perceived resilience to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, we suggest individual resilience is composed of an awareness of localized risks created because of climate change, a willingness to learn about, and plan for, the potential impacts of altered environmental conditions, and general appraisals of…

  8. Cloud feedback on climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Yang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud feedback on climate change and variability follow similar mechanism in climate models, and the magnitude of cloud feedback on climate change and variability are well correlated among models. Therefore, the cloud feedback on short-term climate fluctuations correlates with the equilibrium climate sensitivity in climate models. Using this correlation and the observed short-term climate feedback, we infer a climate sensitivity of ~2.9K. The cloud response to inter-annual surface warming is generally consistent in observations and climate models, except for the tropical boundary-layer low clouds.

  9. Landcare and climate change: a regional perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Bass Coast in Victoria represents a microcosm of the wide range of issues on which climate change will impact. It is experiencing rapid demographic change as sea and tree change populations increase, it adjoins the urban fringe of Melbourne, it includes Victoria's most popular eco-tourism and other recreational tourism areas, and it continues to be an important agricultural production area. The area has been one of the most reliable climate zones in Australia, but it is predicted to be one of the most affected by climate change. Landcare is a community-based, government and corporate-funded national organisation established for over twenty years. Landcare has been responsible for developing a positive attitude to sustainable and productive land management and implementing landscape scale environmental improvement. In Bass Coast it faces a broad range of problems related to climate change and it suffers from a scarcity of science-based information on which to base strategic direction. Given the very long-term nature of climate change and the equally long-term nature of Bass Coast Landcare Network environmental programs, it is essential to have more evidence based information and the need is urgent. Examples: Vegetation species for future climate and robustness of indigenous vegetation; Water supplies for livestock and wildlife while maintaining environmental flows; Salinity issues, soil structure and health issues; Testing and extending changed farming practices as seasons change Specific research/information needs: Growth rates at higher C02, especially woody weeds; Assessment of evaporation prevention options for farm dams (urgently needed); Options for harvesting stormwater and storage for both agriculture and wildlife use; A flexible and simple template for objectively assessing the costs and benefits of changing farming practices; Localised information on likely reduction in run-off under lower rainfall conditions. Communities will face a

  10. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  11. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  12. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  13. Effects of Climate Change and Land Subsidence on Hydro-topographical Conditions in Tidal Lowlands. Case Study Telang I, South Sumatra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahmadi, R.; Suryadi, F.X.; Susanto, R.H.; Schultz, B.

    2011-01-01

    Water management zoning in tidal lowlands is an approach to design and implement proper water management. Water management zoning is defined as the determination of zones that have similar water management characteristics, based on their physical characteristic. The impacts of climate change and lan

  14. 1000 years of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, C.

    Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these

  15. Climate Change and Virtue: An Apologetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Hulme

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The prominent Australian earth scientist, Tim Flannery, closes his recent book Here on Earth: A New Beginning with the words “… if we do not strive to love one another, and to love our planet as much as we love ourselves, then no further progress is possible here on Earth”. This is a remarkable conclusion to his magisterial survey of the state of the planet. Climatic and other environmental changes are showing us not only the extent of human influence on the planet, but also the limits of programmatic management of this influence, whether through political, economic, technological or social engineering. A changing climate is a condition of modernity, but a condition which modernity seems uncomfortable with. Inspired by the recent “environmental turn” in the humanities—and calls from a range of environmental scholars and scientists such as Flannery—I wish to suggest a different, non-programmatic response to climate change: a reacquaintance with the ancient and religious ideas of virtue and its renaissance in the field of virtue ethics. Drawing upon work by Alasdair MacIntyre, Melissa Lane and Tom Wright, I outline an apologetic for why the cultivation of virtue is an appropriate response to the challenges of climate change.

  16. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  17. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  18. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  19. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  20. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  1. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  2. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  3. Poverty Traps and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2011-01-01

    We use a demo-economic model to examine the question of whether climate change could widen or deepen poverty traps. The model includes two crucial mechanisms. Parents are risk averse when deciding how many children to have; fertility is high when infant survival is low. High fertility spreads scarce household resources thin, resulting in children being poorly educated. At the macro level, technological progress is slow because of decreasing returns to scale in agriculture. With high populatio...

  4. The climate change problem and its consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The problem of climate change is investigated in the current work in Tajikistan. It shows that the changes of the republic thermal mode is connected with climate global changes. The forecast of climate change on 2050 on various models are given

  5. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  6. Climatic growing conditions of Jatropha curcas L.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maes, W.H.; Achten, W.M.J.; Muys, B. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Trabucco, A. [Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, Celestijnenlaan 200 E Box 2411, BE-3001 Leuven (Belgium); International Water Management Institute (IWMI), P.O. Box 2075, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

    2009-10-15

    The massive investment in new jatropha plantations worldwide is not sufficiently based on a profound scientific knowledge of its ecology. In this article, we define the climatic conditions in its area of natural distribution by combining the locations of herbarium specimens with corresponding climatic information, and compare these conditions with those in 83 jatropha plantations worldwide. Most specimens (87%) were found in tropical savannah and monsoon climates (A{sub m}, A{sub w}) and in temperate climates without dry season and with hot summer (C{sub fa}), while very few were found in semi-arid (B{sub S}) and none in arid climates (B{sub W}). Ninety-five percent of the specimens grew in areas with a mean annual rainfall above 944 mm year{sup -1} and an average minimum temperature of the coldest month (T{sub min}) above 10.5 C. The mean annual temperature range was 19.3-27.2 C. The climatic conditions at the plantations were different from those of the natural distribution specimens for all studied climatic variables, except average maximum temperature in the warmest month. Roughly 40% of the plantations were situated in regions with a drier climate than in 95% of the area of the herbarium specimens, and 28% of the plantations were situated in areas with T{sub min} below 10.5 C. The observed precipitation preferences indicate that jatropha is not common in regions with arid and semi-arid climates. Plantations in arid and semi-arid areas hold the risk of low productivity or irrigation requirement. Plantations in regions with frost risk hold the risk of damage due to frost. (author)

  7. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  8. Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planton, S.

    2009-09-01

    The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

  9. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  10. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  11. Climate change, environment and allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans. PMID:22433365

  12. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  13. Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change

  14. Sustainable development and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The relationships between the fight against climatic change and the objective of sustainable development have acquired an historical perspective: the Framework Convention of 1992, the Kyoto Protocol and the Bonn-Marrakech Accords. The Convention demonstrates that we must strive for economic growth and sustainable development to allow developing countries to better face the problems associated with climatic change. In the Kyoto Protocol, the commitments agreed upon by northern countries were presented as implicating a group of policies that promote sustainable development. The author discussed the challenges, the contradictions, and the means available to fight against climatic change since Rio. The author begins by expressing the hope that the Kyoto Protocol will be ratified at the Johannesburg Summit, since Russia is moving forward, despite the withdrawal of the United States. Scientists seem to agree that global warming is occurring due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. There are two major difficulties encountered in attempting to stabilize the levels of greenhouse gases: (1) are the countries that emit the most gases in a position to alter their activities in an effort to reduce emissions? and (2) will developing countries be able to avoid the pitfalls that led developed countries to emit greenhouse gases in enormous quantities?

  15. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  16. Forestry Canada's perspectives on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impacts of climatic change on Canada's forestry sector are discussed, in the context of major research priorities relating to forecasting climate, forecasting forest responses, monitoring changes, mitigating effects, and understanding the forest carbon balance. There are five major concerns that affect policy decisions: effects of climatic change on forests; adaptation to climate change; impacts of changing crops on forestry; changing forestry values in changing sociological settings; and international implications of the changing climate. A scientific program to respond to climate change issues is required, and should include the following concentrations of research effort. Planning requires projections of likely future climates, and efforts should concern relations between pre-historic climates and forest ecosystems and integrating data into predictive models. Forecasting of response of forests should include tree physiology, factors controlling reforestation, variations in forest trees, effects of pollutants, damage to forests, and forest decline

  17. Portuguese wine regions under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, João A.; Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Jones, Gregory V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Viticulture and wine production are among the most important sectors of the Portuguese economy. However, as grapevines are strongly affected by weather and climate, climate change may represent an important threat to wine production. The current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2070) bioclimatic conditions in Portugal are discussed by analyzing a number of indices suitable for viticultural zoning, including a categorized bioclimatic index. A two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling is applied in order to achieve a very high spatial resolution (of approximately 1 km) throughout Portugal. Future projections are based on an ensemble of 13 climate model transient experiments, forced by the SRES A1B emission scenario. Results for the recent past are in clear agreement with the current distribution of vineyards and of the established Denomination of Origin regions. Furthermore, the typical climatic conditions associated with each grapevine variety that are currently grown in Portugal are assessed. Under future scenarios, nevertheless, the current conditions are projected to change significantly towards a lower bioclimatic diversity. This can be explained by the projected warming and drying in future decades. The resulting changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region may thereby bring important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. As such, new measures need to be timely implemented to adapt to these climate change projections and to mitigate their likely detrimental impacts on the Portuguese economy. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project ClimVineSafe (PTDC/AGR-ALI/110877/2009).

  18. Lack of Climate Expertise Among Climate Change Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doesken, N.

    2015-12-01

    It is hard to know enough about anything. Many educators fully accept the science as well as the hype associated with climate change and try very hard to be climate literate. But many of these same educators striving for greater climate literacy are surprisingly ignorant about the climate itself (typical seasonal cycles, variations, extremes, spatial patterns and the drivers that produce them). As a result, some of these educators and their students are tempted to interpret each and every hot or cold and wet or dry spell as convincing evidence of climate change even as climate change "skeptics" view those same fluctuations as normal. Educators' overreaction risks a backfire reaction resulting in loss of credibility among the very groups they are striving to educate and influence. This presentation will include reflections on climate change education and impacts based on 4 decades of climate communication in Colorado.

  19. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture & Forestry USDA Resources Climate Change Program Office Agency Activities Climate Change Blogs Case Studies USDA Climate Hubs Through this ...

  20. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  1. Prediction of diffuse organic micropollutant loads in streams under changing climatic, socio-economic and technical boundary conditions with an integrated transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honti, Mark; Schuwirth, Nele; Rieckermann, Jörg; Ghielmetti, Nico; Stamm, Christian

    2014-05-01

    were predominantly determined by human activities in each simulated sub-catchment, as reflected by the socio-economic scenarios and management alternatives. Climatic and the corresponding hydrological changes had a much weaker influence. This indicates that - conditionally on the confidence of our predictions - catchment management would possess effective options to prevent the degradation of water quality in the future. However, prediction uncertainty varied between high and huge levels depending on compound. Most of the identified uncertainty was related to the quality of input data. Application rates and timings could be estimated only roughly for most compounds. Concentration peaks were simulated with high uncertainty. The highest pollutant concentrations were often associated with known but unidentified pollution sources such as accidental spills, or brief high-intensity precipitation events whose amount could only be observed with high uncertainty. So while acute exposure would be as important as the chronic one for IWRM, neither climatic nor catchment models excel at predicting rare and brief events. This deficiency highlights why the assessment of predictive uncertainty should be an integral part of OMP modeling.

  2. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  3. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Mixed Severity Fire Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Halofsky, Jessica; Peterson, Dave L.

    2009-01-01

    The frequency, severity, and extent of wildfire are strongly related to climate, and increasing temperatures with climate change will likely lead to changes in fire regimes in many types of ecosystems. Increased spring and summer temperatures with climate change will result in relatively early snowmelt, lower summer soil and fuel moisture, and longer fire seasons in the West. These conditions will lead to increased fire frequency and extent. Higher temperatures may also interact with vegetati...

  4. ON CORRELATING BIRD MIGRATION TRAJECTORY WITH CLIMATE CHANGES

    OpenAIRE

    Oleinik, Janaina; de Macedo, Jose Antonio Fernandes; Yuanjian, Wang Zufferey

    2009-01-01

    Climate changes are expected to affect bird migration in several aspects including timing changes, breeding and migration orientation. The correlation analysis of several climate conditions (e.g. temperature, wind, humidity, etc) and bird migration trajectory is the key for explaining bird behavior during migration. Moreover, the resulting correlation can be used for predicting new bird behavior according to climate changes. In this paper we propose an integrated solution for correlating bird...

  5. Frogs and climate change in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Minter, Leslie Rory

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the relationship between frog declines and climate change, discusses the possible impact of climate change on the South African frog fauna, and highlights the necessity for increased research and monitoring of our frog populations.

  6. HOW WILL GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT PARASITES?

    Science.gov (United States)

    : Parasites are integral components of complex biotic assemblages that comprise the biosphere. Host switching correlated with episodic climate-change events are common in evolutionary and ecological time. Global climate change produces ecological perturbation, manifested in major geographical/pheno...

  7. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  8. Energy Partition From Various Climate Conditions And Land Use Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chi-Han; Hsu2, Pang-Chi

    2015-04-01

    Investigating how energy partitions and what factors control energy exchange is critical for better understanding the hydrological cycle, boundary layer dynamics, and land -atmosphere coupling. Climate and land use conditions are the two main factors to control energy partitation. However, previous studies discussed energy partition and factors that controlled Bowen ratio (i.e., ratio of sensible heat flux to latent heat flux) in limited land use types and climate conditions. To provide a more comprehensive analysis over various climate and vegetation types, in this study, we studied eleven different land use types in the eight different climate zones within the United State. The results found out that the Mediterranean climate zone with dry summer season, dry arid (desert) climate zone, and the higher latitude area with severe winter would had higher Bowen ratio, lower precipitation and net radiation. In contrast, the humid climate zones had the lower Bowen ratio, higher net radiation and precipitation. Moreover, the higher Bowen ratio usually happened in the winter or early spring seasons. Regarding land conditions, it is found that soil moistures are the key factor to control Bowen ratio in the drier climate areas. Hence, the grassland and closed shrublands sites have higher Bowen ratio than deciduous broadleaf forests and evergreen needle-leaf forests sites' because of shallower root systems that lack access to the full storage of water in the vadose zone. However, in the humid areas, land use factors, such as stomatal resistance and leaf area, would play an important role in changing latent heat and sensible heat. Based on the tight relationships between Bowen ratio and conditions of climate and land use, we suggest that Bowen ratio could be a useful tool for understanding the potential feedbacks of changes in climate and land use to energy partition and exchange.

  9. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  10. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  11. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  12. Climate change mitigation policies in Lithuania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konstantinaviciute, I.

    2003-09-01

    The Lithuanian climate change policy has to be considered in the framework of the Convention on Climate Change. The National Strategy for Implementation of Convention was the first step in evaluating the country's impact on climate change, adapting to the Convention and foreseeing the means and measures for climate change mitigation. The paper introduces main issues related to climate change mitigation policy in Lithuania. It presents an analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends in Lithuania and surveys institutional organizations as well as stakeholder associations related to climate change issues and their role in climate policy making. The main Lithuanian international environmental obligation and Lithuanian governmental climate change mitigation policy in the energy sector are presented as well. (Author)

  13. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  14. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  15. Climate Change Projections for African Urban Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Naidoo, Mogesh

    2013-04-01

    Africa have been derived (six at CSIR and two at CMCC). That is, a multi-model ensemble of simulations of present-day and future climate has been made available for a number of African regions. This approach is most useful to describe the range of uncertainty associated with future climate. In order to obtain a set of plausible and physically defensible projections that can be used for a broad range of subsequent research questions, the two partners followed two different modelling approaches. The first approach, (by CMCC) uses a single dynamic climate change model: the model gets executed several times using a number of pertubations, e.g. changing initial conditions to account for the non-linear dynamics, perturbations of the boundary conditions to account for the 'imperfect' characterizations of the non-atmospheric components of the climate system or to handle the uncertainty of the driving global model, or perturbations of the model physics to account for the uncertainties inherent in the parameterizations. The second approach, (by CSIR) keeps the boundary conditions static but downscales a number of different global circulation models to account for the uncertainties inherent in the models themselves. In total, CSIR has run six different dynamic models. All runs have been conducted on super computing clusters to be completed within reasonable timeframes. The full data set is currently made available on the web. A number of tools is used to provide maximum user experience for climate change experts, social geographers, city planners and policy decision makers.

  16. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  17. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  18. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  19. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  20. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  1. Climate change, migration and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carballo, Manuel

    2008-01-01

    In summary, climate change of the magnitude that is now being talked about promises to invoke major changes in the nature of the world we live in. From an agricultural and food production perspective new challenges are already emerging and many countries, regional organizations and international agencies are ill-prepared to deal with them. From the perspective of the forced emergence of new diseases. There may also be complex struggles for scarce resources including land, water, food and housing. To what extent these will translate into social and political instability is not clear, but the potential for instability within and between countries should not be under-estimated; nor should the scarcity of selected commodities. Understanding these complex dynamics and planning for them in timely and comprehensive ways is essential. Preparedness by governments, the international community and the private sector, will help accommodate some of the changes that are already taking place and many others which are still to materialize. PMID:18795506

  2. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thepaut, Jean-Noel

    2016-04-01

    Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.

  3. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  4. Global climate change : greenhouse effect

    OpenAIRE

    Attard, David

    1992-01-01

    One of the main problems caused by climate change is the greenhouse effect. Human activities emit so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide which is produced through fossil fuel burning. These gases absorb the earth‘s radiation, forcing the earth‘s temperature, like that of in greenhouse, to rise. Global warming would lead to a rise in the global mean sea-level due to thermal expansion of the waters, and glaciers will melt at a fast rate, as will the Greenland ice...

  5. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the 'regional' - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  6. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  7. Scientific aspects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the last 35 years, the average temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing- Are the greenhouse gases emitted by human beings the cause? What will the consequences be? What can we do? The fourth report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate change tries to answer these questions. There are clear signs of thawing that primary affect Greenland and the Antarctic, but there are still many doubts what the consequences will be throughout the century. In any case, it seems obvious that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not substantially reduced very soon, the rising temperature trend and its associated consequences will persist beyond the 21st century. (Author)

  8. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  9. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Frédéric JIGUET; Lluis BROTONS; Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-01-01

    Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. Soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes) have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate.

  10. Community responses to extreme climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric JIGUET, Lluis BROTONS, Vincent DEVICTOR

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Species assemblages and natural communities are increasingly impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events. Here we propose a brief overview of expected and demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of extreme events on animal communities. We show that differential impacts on basic biological parameters of individual species can lead to strong changes in community composition and structure with the potential to considerably modify the functional traits of the community. Sudden disequilibria have even been shown to induce irreversible shifts in marine ecosystems, while cascade effects on various taxonomic groups have been highlighted in Mediterranean forests. Indirect effects of extreme climatic events are expected when event-induced habitat changes (e.g. soil stability, vegetation composition, water flows altered by droughts, floods or hurricanes have differential consequences on species assembled within the communities. Moreover, in increasing the amplitude of trophic mismatches, extreme events are likely to turn many systems into ecological traps under climate change. Finally, we propose a focus on the potential impacts of an extreme heat wave on local assemblages as an empirical case study, analysing monitoring data on breeding birds collected in France. In this example, we show that despite specific populations were differently affected by local temperature anomalies, communities seem to be unaffected by a sudden heat wave. These results suggest that communities are tracking climate change at the highest possible rate [Current Zoology 57 (3: 406–413, 2011].

  11. Romania within the Context of Climatic Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Dragoş, Raluca; Dragoş, Gheorghe-Viorel

    2011-01-01

    Under the circumstances of the menacing climatic changes upon both environment and social-economic framework, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established its main objective “achieving stabilization of gas concentrations within climatic system”. Due to the fact that the main cause of the climatic changes derives from the exhausted gases resulting in the greenhouse effect, measures, targets and programs of reducing greenhouse effects gases will be esta...

  12. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  13. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  14. Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

  15. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.;

    2006-01-01

    Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...... to the changing climate. The Quaternary geological record provides examples of organisms that responded to the climatic fluctuations of that period in each of these ways, but also indicates that the two are not alternative responses but components of the same overall predominantly spatial response. Species unable...

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charmian M. Bennett

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  17. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

    2014-12-03

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health. PMID:27417491

  19. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  20. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.;

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  1. Rapid adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Angela M

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. PMID:27463237

  2. Effects of climate change on US agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO2 levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO2 is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  3. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the boreal climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong temperature rises. In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be

  4. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  5. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  6. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  7. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  8. Climate change and the ethics of discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. Davidson

    2015-01-01

    Climate policy-making requires a balancing, however rudimentary, of the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions against the benefits of reduced risks of climate change. Since those creating and those facing the risks of climate change belong to different generations, striking the balance is preem

  9. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered. PMID:23185568

  10. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  11. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01 to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03 for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008 to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02. We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  12. What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2016-01-01

    Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory. PMID:26667379

  13. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  14. Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Liverani, Andrea; Joseph, George; bougnoux, nathalie

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change e...

  15. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case...

  16. Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck

    This thesis "Upgrade and Design of Coastal Structures Exposed to Climate Changes" evaluates the performance of existing types of structures when exposed to climate changes. This includes also the potential of using cost‐sharing multipurpose structures for protection against the effects of future...... climate changes. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part evaluates the performance of existing design formulae for estimation of wave actions on structures, especially in shallow water since these structures are most vulnerable to the rising sea water levels caused by climate changes. Existing...... of coastal protection structures, which are extended to a wider range of wave conditions, and which can be used to more accurately estimate the influence from climate changes. In the second part of the thesis, the extended and modified formulae are used in case studies to evaluate the influence from climate...

  17. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  18. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are

  19. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  20. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  1. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  2. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  3. Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate

  4. Making Cities Resilient to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dulal, Hari Bansha

    2016-01-01

    Urbanization is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanization level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanization has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countri...

  5. The transnational regime complex for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Abbott

    2012-01-01

    In climate change, as in other areas, recent years have produced a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of transnational institutions, standards, financing arrangements, and programs. As a result, climate governance has become complex, fragmented, and decentralized, operating without central coordination. Most studies of climate governance focus on inter­state institutions. In contrast, I map a different realm of climate change governance: the diverse array of transnational schemes. I analyze this emerging s...

  6. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising evapotranspiration rates, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate natural and modified flow regimes, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes significantly. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean climate zone (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the continental climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt and drier summers. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both, high and low flows. While low flow magnitudes are likely to be stronger influenced in the Mediterranean climate, high flow magnitudes will be mainly altered in snow climates with warmer summers. At the end

  7. Climate change and marine top predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Climate change affects all components of marine ecosystems. For endothermic top predators, i.e. seabirds and marine mammals, these impacts are often complex and mediated through trophic relationships. In this Research Topic, leading researchers attempt to identify patterns of change among seabirds...... and marine mammals, and the mechanisms through which climate change drives these changes....

  8. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  9. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  10. Forests and climate change - lessons from insects

    OpenAIRE

    Battisti A

    2008-01-01

    The climate change may indirectly affects the forest ecosystems through the activity of phytophagous insects. The climate change has been claimed to be responsible of the range expansion northward and upward of several insect species of northern temperate forests, as well as of changes in the seasonal phenology. Several papers have dealt with the prediction of the most likely consequences of the climate change on the phytophagous insects, including some of the most important forest pests. Inc...

  11. Climatic change: possible impacts on human health

    OpenAIRE

    Beniston, Martin

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a number of problems relating climatic change and human health. Following an introduction that outlines the over-arching issues, a short summary is given on climatic change and its anthropogenic causes. The rest of the paper then focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of global climatic change on health. Direct effects comprise changes in the hygrothermal stress response of humans, atmospheric pollution, water quality and availability; indirect effects include the pot...

  12. Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

  13. Climate change mitigation and electrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing number of mitigation scenarios with deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions have focused on expanded use of demand-side electric technologies, including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and heat pumps. Here we review such “electricity scenarios” to explore commonalities and differences. Newer scenarios are produced by various interests, ranging from environmental organizations to industry to an international organization, and represent a variety of carbon-free power generation technologies on the supply side. The reviewed studies reveal that the electrification rate, defined here as the ratio of electricity to final energy demand, rises in baseline scenarios, and that its increase is accelerated under climate policy. The prospect of electrification differs from sector to sector, and is the most robust for the buildings sector. The degree of transport electrification differs among studies because of different treatment and assumptions about technology. Industry does not show an appreciable change in the electrification rate. Relative to a baseline scenario, an increase in the electrification rate often implies an increase in electricity demand but does not guarantee it. - Highlights: ► Until recently few mitigation scenarios paid attention to electrification. ► Recent scenarios show an increasing focus on demand-side electric technologies. ► They are represented by various interests. ► Level of electrification increases with stringency of climate policy. ► Prospect of electrification differs across sectors.

  14. Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

    2010-05-01

    To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a

  15. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Belda; Petr Skalák; Aleš Farda; Tomáš Halenka; Michel Déqué; Gabriella Csima; Judit Bartholy; Csaba Torma; Constanta Boroneant; Mihaela Caian; Valery Spiridonov

    2015-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective...

  16. Application of AquaCrop model for yield and irrigation requirement estimation of sugar beet under climate change conditions in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stričević Ružica J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impact on field production may play a great role in strategic planning on soil and water resources management. Therefore, the aim of this work was to find out the impact of climate change on sugar beet yield, irrigation depth variation and water saving practices. AquaCrop model v.4.0 was used for yield and irrigation requirement estimation. Input data for future climatic parameters were obtained from EBU-POM for four scenarios A1B, A2, A1B* and A* (*>CO2, and periods of observation were first (2010-2039; second (2040-2069, and third (2070-2099. Undoubtedly, yield will not be reduced in the first period by any scenario, on the contrary, it might be increased. In the second period, yield reduction was observed in A1B and A2 scenarios, hence without the increment of CO2 in the Vojvodina region, whereas in Central Serbia, yield reduction might be expected even in scenarios of A1B and A2*. Irrigation could ensure yield increment in both regions, provided that an increase is more considerable in Central Serbia, due to lower soil water capacity. Application of optimal irrigation depth yield could be increased by up to 57-97% in Vojvodina and 77-285% in Central Serbia. Lower values are obtained in the first period and the highest in the third period. Applying deficit irrigation, water saving would reduce yield in scenario A2, otherwise to obtain high yield, irrigation depth of 300-500 mm should be ensured in Central Serbia. In the same scenario, 300-420 mm of water for irrigation is needed in Vojvodina, but its water savings could be 80-120 mm, or 20%. In scenario A1B, to obtain high yield, 80 mm could be saved in both regions. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR 37005

  17. Equity in Adaptation to Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most observers agree that equity has become a key condition for the success of a global agreement on climate, and that any deal that would seem inequitable would be doomed to fail. The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) makes a distinction between developed countries, developing countries, and least advanced countries; as well as between vulnerable countries and particularly vulnerable countries. The first distinction has to do with equity in mitigation efforts, whereas the latter is concerned with equity in the allocation of adaptation funding (Mace 2006). Adaptation itself is poorly defined: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) does not go further than defining it as the adjustment of human or natural systems confronted to a new or changing environment (IPCC 2007). It took a very long time for adaptation to be acknowledged as a key aspect of the fight against global warming. Funding mechanisms were long overdue when they were finally implemented, and remain heavily discussed. A sufficient amount of funding for adaptation appears today as the sine qua non condition for the participation of developing countries to a global deal on climate. This amount has been estimated at US$ 100 billion at least on a yearly basis, including support for mitigation efforts. However, though equity concerns have been placed at the core of the negotiation on mitigation efforts, they have been little addressed in the discussions on adaptation. As a result of this, the criteria that will be used to allocate the adaptation funding remain unclear and vague, which could be detrimental for the negotiation process as a whole. This paper aims to offer a new perspective on this issue, departing from the traditional perspective inspired by retributive justice. (author)

  18. The 7 Aarhus Statements on Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basse, Ellen Margrethe; Svenning, J.-C.; Olesen, Jørgen E;

    2009-01-01

    More than 1000 prominent representatives from science, industry, politics and NGOs were gathered in Aarhus on 5-7 March 2009 for the international climate conference 'Beyond Kyoto: Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change'. Thematically, Beyond Kyoto was divided into seven areas of particular...... interest for understanding the effects of the projected future climate change and how the foreseen negative impacts can be counteracted by mitigation and adaptation measures. The themes were: Climate policy: the role of law and economics; Biodiversity and ecosystems; Agriculture and climate change...

  19. Climate change and shareholder value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During 2005, the Carbon Trust worked with Cairneagle Associates to develop a methodology for analysing shareholder value at risk from climate change. The model developed offers a robust, replicable, top-down approach to analysing such value at risk. In addition to a company's own energy linked ('direct' and electricity linked 'indirect') carbon emissions, it looks further along the value chain and considers broader potential risk. In calculating the financial impact, the analysis quantifies the potential impact on profits, using the shape of the business in 2004, but applying a potential 2013 emissions regulatory regime. 2013 was chosen as the first year after the end of the 2008-2012 Kyoto compliance period (which also equates to Phase Two in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). A major uncertainty is to what extent countries not currently regulated by the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the USA, India and China) will be brought into committed emission reduction targets from 2013. 2013 therefore represents the earliest year under this uncertain, but likely tougher, regulatory regime. However, although this report focuses on 2013, it needs to be recognised that, for many sectors, financial impacts will be seen significantly before this time. Ten 'case study companies' have been studied, from a range of sectors. In some cases, the 'case study company' analysed is strictly linked to a single company within that sector. In others, just a single corporate division has been reviewed, and in others yet again, characteristics from several companies have been combined to produce a more representative example. In order to enable analysis on a strictly like-for-like basis, the research has been based entirely upon public sources of information. This analysis illustrates what a determined shareholder (or other onlooker) could derive about value at risk from climate change, based upon what companies disclose today. A summary of the analysis for each sector case study is given, with

  20. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail