WorldWideScience

Sample records for change teleconnection patterns

  1. Effect of boreal spring precipitation anomaly pattern change in the late 1990s over tropical Pacific on the atmospheric teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuanyuan; Wen, Zhiping; Chen, Ruidan; Li, Xiuzhen; Yang, Xiu-Qun

    2018-02-01

    Observational evidence showed that the leading mode of precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific during boreal spring experienced a pronounced interdecadal change around the late 1990s, characterized by a precipitation pattern shift from an eastern Pacific (EP) type to a central Pacific (CP) type. The distinct impacts of such a precipitation pattern shift on the extratropical atmospheric teleconnection were examined. An apparent poleward teleconnection extending from the tropics to the North Atlantic region was observed after 1998, while, there was no significant teleconnection before 1998. To understand why only the CP-type precipitation mode is associated with a striking atmospheric teleconnection after 1998, diagnostic analyses with the Eliassen-Palm flux and Rossby wave source (RWS) based on the barotropic vorticity equation were performed. The results show that for the EP-type precipitation mode, no significant RWS anomalies appeared over the subtropical Pacific due to the opposite effect of the vortex stretching and absolute vorticity advection processes. For the CP-type precipitation mode, however, there are both significant vorticity forcing source over the subtropical CP and clear poleward-propagation of Rossby wave. The spatial distribution of the CP-type precipitation pattern tends to excite a conspicuous anomalous southerly and a well-organized negative vorticity center over the subtropical CP where both the mean absolute vorticity gradient and mean divergence flow are large, hence, the interaction between the heating-induced anomalous circulation and the basic state made the generation of Rossby waves conceivable and effective. Such corresponding teleconnection responses to the prescribed heating were also examined by using a Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM). It turned out that significant poleward teleconnection pattern is only caused by the CP-type precipitation mode, rather than by the EP-type precipitation mode. Further sensitive experiments

  2. Cold season Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern and its relation to the Atlantic multidecadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Ze

    2017-06-01

    A prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by an eastward propagating wave train with a zonal wavenumber of 5-6 between 20° and 40°N, extending from the northwest coast of Africa to East Asia, and thus is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). One-point correlation maps show that the teleconnectivity of AAMT is strong and further demonstrate the existence of the AAMT. The AAMT shapes the spatial structure of multidecadal change in atmospheric circulation over the NA-EA region, and in particular the AAMT pattern and associated fields show similar structures to the change occurring around the early 1960s. A strong in-phase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. Barotropic modeling results suggest that the upper-level Rossby wave source generated by the AMV can excite the AAMT wave train, and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis further highlights the role of the Asian jet stream in guiding the wave train to East Asia. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability. The AMV is closely related to the coordinated change in surface and tropospheric air temperatures over Northwest Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Central China, which may result from the adiabatic expansion/compression of air associated with the AAMT.

  3. Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

    2017-04-01

    Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping

  4. Prediction Center (CPC) Polar Eurasia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Polar-Eurasia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Scandinavia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Scandinavia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal component...

  6. Prediction Center (CPC) Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Tropical/ Northern Hemisphere teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Pacific Transition Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific Transition teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  8. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) West Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the West Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  10. ENSO Atmospheric Teleconnections and Their Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Sang-Wook; Cai, Wenju; Min, Seung-Ki; McPhaden, Michael J.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Dewitte, Boris; Collins, Matthew; Ashok, Karumuri; An, Soon-Il; Yim, Bo-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2018-03-01

    El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent year-to-year climate fluctuation on Earth, alternating between anomalously warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the tropical Pacific. ENSO exerts its impacts on remote regions of the globe through atmospheric teleconnections, affecting extreme weather events worldwide. However, these teleconnections are inherently nonlinear and sensitive to ENSO SST anomaly patterns and amplitudes. In addition, teleconnections are modulated by variability in the oceanic and atmopsheric mean state outside the tropics and by land and sea ice extent. The character of ENSO as well as the ocean mean state have changed since the 1990s, which might be due to either natural variability or anthropogenic forcing, or their combined influences. This has resulted in changes in ENSO atmospheric teleconnections in terms of precipitation and temperature in various parts of the globe. In addition, changes in ENSO teleconnection patterns have affected their predictability and the statistics of extreme events. However, the short observational record does not allow us to clearly distinguish which changes are robust and which are not. Climate models suggest that ENSO teleconnections will change because the mean atmospheric circulation will change due to anthropogenic forcing in the 21st century, which is independent of whether ENSO properties change or not. However, future ENSO teleconnection changes do not currently show strong intermodel agreement from region to region, highlighting the importance of identifying factors that affect uncertainty in future model projections.

  11. Analysis of Roanoke Region Weather Patterns Under Global Teleconnections

    OpenAIRE

    LaRocque, Eric John

    2006-01-01

    This work attempts to relate global teleconnections, through physical phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Artic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern to synoptic-scale weather patterns and precipitation in the Roanoke, Virginia region. The first chapter describes the behavior of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by implementing non-homogeneous and homogeneous Markov Chain models on a monthly time series o...

  12. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the Pacific/ North American teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  14. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Pacific/ North Pacific Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Pacific/ North Pacific teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  15. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  16. Regional Famine Patterns of The Last Millennium as Influenced by Aggregated Climate Teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Michael Melton

    Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India. The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines. The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914. The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years. Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex

  17. Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routson, Cody C.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; McKay, Nicholas P.

    2016-01-01

    Western North America (WNA) is rich in hydroclimate reconstructions, yet questions remain about the causes of decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability. Teleconnection patterns preserved in annually-resolved tree-ring reconstructed drought maps, and anomalies in a global network of proxy sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, were used to reassess the evidence linking ocean forcing to WNA hydroclimate variability over the past millennium. Potential forcing mechanisms of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and individual drought and pluvial events—including two multidecadal-length MCA pluvials—were evaluated. We show strong teleconnection patterns occurred during the driest (wettest) years within persistent droughts (pluvials), implicating SSTs as a potent hydroclimate forcing mechanism. The role of the SSTs on longer timescales is more complex. Pacific teleconnection patterns show little long-term change, whereas low-resolution SST reconstructions vary over decades to centuries. While weaker than the tropical Pacific teleconnections, North Atlantic teleconnection patterns and SST reconstructions also show links to WNA droughts and pluvials, and may in part account for longer-term WNA hydroclimate changes. Nonetheless, evidence linking WNA hydroclimate to SSTs still remains sparse and nuanced—especially over long-timescales with a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than characterized during the 20th century.

  18. Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2018-05-01

    Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

  19. Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lionello

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure teleconnection patterns.

    The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958–2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA, Scandinavian Pattern (SCA, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP. Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns.

  20. Impacts of four northern-hemisphere teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulations over Eurasia and the Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Yu, Jin-yi; Paek, Houk

    2017-08-01

    The impacts of four teleconnection patterns on atmospheric circulation components over Eurasia and the Pacific region, from low to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), were investigated comprehensively in this study. The patterns, as identified by the Climate Prediction Center (USA), were the East Atlantic (EA), East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR), Polar/Eurasia (POLEUR), and Scandinavian (SCAND) teleconnections. Results indicate that the EA pattern is closely related to the intensity of the subtropical high over different sectors of the NH in all seasons, especially boreal winter. The wave train associated with this pattern serves as an atmospheric bridge that transfers Atlantic influence into the low-latitude region of the Pacific. In addition, the amplitudes of the EAWR, SCAND, and POLEUR patterns were found to have considerable control on the "Vangengeim-Girs" circulation that forms over the Atlantic-Eurasian region in winter or spring. The EA and EAWR mainly affect the westerlies in winter and spring and the POLEUR and SCAND, respectively, in summer and winter. Strong westerlies confine the extension of the North Polar vortex, which generally results in a small weak vortex and a shallow East Asian trough located in a position further east than normal. Furthermore, the North Polar vortex presents significant connections with the patterns during winter and summer. Analyses in this work suggest that the teleconnection patterns in summer could be driven, at least partly, by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which to some degree might transmit the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to Eurasia and the Pacific region.

  1. Assessing Intelligent Models in Forecasting Monthly Rainfall by Means of Teleconnection Patterns (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Nazarieh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Rainfall is affected by changes in the global sea level change, especially changes in sea surface temperature SST Sea Surface Temperature and sea level pressure SLP Sea level Pressure. Climate anomalies being related to each other at large distance is called teleconnection. As physical relationships between rainfall and teleconnection patterns are not defined clearly, we used intelligent models for forecasting rainfall. The intelligent models used in this study included Fuzzy Inference Systems, neural network and Neuro-fuzzy. In this study, first the teleconnection indices that could affect rainfall in the study area were identified. Then intelligent models were trained for rainfall forecasting. Finally, the most capable model for forecasting rainfall was presented. The study area for this research is the Khorasan Razavi Province. In order to present a model for rainfall forecasting, rainfall data of seven synoptic stations including Mashhad, Golmakan, Nishapur, Sabzevar, Kashmar, Torbate and Sharks since 1991 to 2010 were used. Materials and Methods: Based on previous studies about Teleconnection Patterns in the study area, effective Teleconnection indexes were identified. After calculating the correlation between the identified teleconnection indices and rainfall in one, two and three months ahead for all stations, fourteen teleconnection indices were chosen as inputs for intelligent models. These indices include, SLP Adriatic , SLP northern Red Sea, SLP Mediterranean Sea, SLP Aral sea, SST Sea surface temperature Labrador sea, SST Oman Sea, SST Caspian Sea, SST Persian Gulf, North Pacific pattern, SST Tropical Pacific in NINO12 and NINO3 regions, North Pacific Oscillation, Trans-Nino Index, Multivariable Enso Index. Inputs of the intelligent models include fourteen teleconnection indices, latitude and altitude of each station and their outputs are the prediction of rainfall for one, two and three months ahead. For calibration of

  2. North Atlantic teleconnection patterns signature on sea level from satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lázaro, Clara; Joana Fernandes, M.; Bastos, Luísa

    2015-04-01

    Presently, satellite altimetry record is long enough to appropriately study inter-annual signals in sea level anomaly and ocean surface circulation, allowing the association of teleconnection patterns of low-frequency variability with the response of sea level. The variability of the Atlantic Ocean at basin-scale is known to be complex in space and time, with the dominant mode occurring on annual timescales. However, interannual and decadal variability have already been documented in sea surface temperature. Both modes are believed to be linked and are known to influence sea level along coastal regions. The analysis of the sea level multiannual variability is thus essential to understand the present climate and its long-term variability. While in the open-ocean sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry currently possesses centimetre-level accuracy, satellite altimetry measurements become invalid or of lower accuracy along the coast due to the invalidity of the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) derived from on-board microwave radiometers. In order to adequately analyse long-term changes in sea level in the coastal regions, satellite altimetry measurements can be recovered by using an improved WTC computed from recent algorithms that combine wet path delays from all available observations (remote sensing scanning imaging radiometers, GNSS stations, microwave radiometers on-board satellite altimetry missions and numerical weather models). In this study, a 20-year (1993-2013) time series of multi-mission satellite altimetry (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, CryoSat-2 and SARAL), are used to characterize the North Atlantic (NA) long-term variability on sea level at basin-scale and analyse its response to several atmospheric teleconnections known to operate on the NA. The altimetry record was generated using an improved coastal WTC computed from either the GNSS-derived path Delay or the Data Combination methodologies developed by University of

  3. Predictability of rainfall and teleconnections patterns influencing on Southwest Europe from sea surfaces temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, M. N.; Iglesias, I.; Taboada, J. J.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    This work assesses the possibility of doing a forecast of rainfall and the main teleconnections patterns that influences climate in Southwest Europe by using sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The area under study is located in the NW Iberian Peninsula. This region has a great oceanic influence on its climate and has an important dependency of the water resources. In this way if the different SST patterns are known, the different rainfall situations can be predicted. On the other hand, the teleconnection patterns, which have strong weight on rainfall, are influenced by the SSTA of different areas. In the light of this, the aim of this study is to explore the relationship between global SSTAs, rainfall and the main teleconnection patterns influencing on Europe. The SST data with a 2.0 degree resolution was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA. A monthly averaged data from 1 January 1951 through December 2006 was considered. The monthly precipitation data from 1951-2006 were obtained from the database CLIMA of the University of Santiago de Compostela with data from the Meteorological State Agency (AEMET) and the Regional Government of Galicia. The teleconnection indices were taken of the Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA between 1950 and 2006. A monthly and seasonal study was analysed considering up to three months of delay in the first case and up to four seasons of delay in the second case. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient r was considered to quantify linear associations between SSTA and precipitation and/or SSTA and teleconnection indices. A test for field-significance was applied considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid to avoid spurious correlations. Analysing the results obtained with the global SSTA and the teleconnection indices, a great number of ocean regions with high correlations can be found. The spatial patterns show very high correlations with Indian Ocean waters

  4. Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

  5. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  6. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  7. Impact of the basic state and MJO representation on MJO Pacific teleconnections in GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, S. A.; Maloney, E. D.; Son, S. W.

    2017-12-01

    Teleconnection patterns induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are known to significantly alter extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, accurate MJO representation has been difficult for many General Circulation Models (GCMs). Furthermore, many GCMs contain large basic state biases. These issues present challenges to the simulation of MJO teleconnections and, in turn, their associated extratropical impacts. This study examines the impacts of basic state quality and MJO representation on the quality of MJO teleconnection patterns in GCMs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Results suggest that GCMs assessed to have a good MJO but with large basic state biases have similarly low skill in reproducing MJO teleconnections as GCMs with poor MJO representation. In the good MJO models examined, poor teleconnection quality is associated with large errors in the zonal extent of the Pacific subtropical jet. Whereas the horizontal structure of MJO heating in the Indo-Pacific region is found to have modest impacts on the teleconnection patterns, results suggest that MJO heating east of the dateline can alter the teleconnection pattern characteristics over North America. These findings suggest that in order to accurately simulate the MJO teleconnection patterns and associated extratropical impacts, both the MJO and the basic state must be well represented.

  8. Analysing the teleconnection systems affecting the climate of the Carpathian Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristóf, Erzsébet; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

    2017-04-01

    Nowadays, the increase of the global average near-surface air temperature is unequivocal. Atmospheric low-frequency variabilities have substantial impacts on climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, assessing their effects is essential to improve global and regional climate model simulations for the 21st century. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the best-known atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Besides NAO, we aim to analyse other interannual-to-decadal teleconnection patterns, which might have significant impacts on the Carpathian Basin, namely, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the Mediterranean Oscillation, and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern. For this purpose primarily the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis dataset and multivariate statistical methods are used. The indices of each teleconnection pattern and their correlations with temperature and precipitation will be calculated for the period of 1961-1990. On the basis of these data first the long range (i. e. seasonal and/or annual scale) forecast ability is evaluated. Then, we aim to calculate the same indices of the relevant teleconnection patterns for the historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compare them against each other using statistical methods. Our ultimate goal is to examine all available CMIP5 models and evaluate their abilities to reproduce the selected teleconnection systems. Thus, climate predictions for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin may be improved using the best-performing models among all CMIP5 model simulations.

  9. Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Janko, Mark; Hwang, Taehee; Kolby Smith, W.

    2018-03-01

    Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982-2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N-60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.

  10. Streamflow prediction using multi-site rainfall obtained from hydroclimatic teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashid, S. S.; Ghosh, Subimal; Maity, Rajib

    2010-12-01

    SummarySimultaneous variations in weather and climate over widely separated regions are commonly known as "hydroclimatic teleconnections". Rainfall and runoff patterns, over continents, are found to be significantly teleconnected, with large-scale circulation patterns, through such hydroclimatic teleconnections. Though such teleconnections exist in nature, it is very difficult to model them, due to their inherent complexity. Statistical techniques and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools gain popularity in modeling hydroclimatic teleconnection, based on their ability, in capturing the complicated relationship between the predictors (e.g. sea surface temperatures) and predictand (e.g., rainfall). Genetic Programming is such an AI tool, which is capable of capturing nonlinear relationship, between predictor and predictand, due to its flexible functional structure. In the present study, gridded multi-site weekly rainfall is predicted from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) indices, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and lag rainfall at grid points, over the catchment, using Genetic Programming. The predicted rainfall is further used in a Genetic Programming model to predict streamflows. The model is applied for weekly forecasting of streamflow in Mahanadi River, India, and satisfactory performance is observed.

  11. Discovery of Teleconnections Using Data Mining Technologies in Global Climate Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Lin

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we apply data mining technologies to a 100-year global land precipitation dataset and a 100-year Sea Surface Temperature (SST dataset. Some interesting teleconnections are discovered, including well-known patterns and unknown patterns (to the best of our knowledge, such as teleconnections between the abnormally low temperature events of the North Atlantic and floods in Northern Bolivia, abnormally low temperatures of the Venezuelan Coast and floods in Northern Algeria and Tunisia, etc. In particular, we use a high dimensional clustering method and a method that mines episode association rules in event sequences. The former is used to cluster the original time series datasets into higher spatial granularity, and the later is used to discover teleconnection patterns among events sequences that are generated by the clustering method. In order to verify our method, we also do experiments on the SOI index and a 100-year global land precipitation dataset and find many well-known teleconnections, such as teleconnections between SOI lower events and drought events of Eastern Australia, South Africa, and North Brazil; SOI lower events and flood events of the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River; etc. We also do explorative experiments to help domain scientists discover new knowledge.

  12. Teleconnection Paths via Climate Network Direct Link Detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Dong; Gozolchiani, Avi; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Havlin, Shlomo

    2015-12-31

    Teleconnections describe remote connections (typically thousands of kilometers) of the climate system. These are of great importance in climate dynamics as they reflect the transportation of energy and climate change on global scales (like the El Niño phenomenon). Yet, the path of influence propagation between such remote regions, and weighting associated with different paths, are only partially known. Here we propose a systematic climate network approach to find and quantify the optimal paths between remotely distant interacting locations. Specifically, we separate the correlations between two grid points into direct and indirect components, where the optimal path is found based on a minimal total cost function of the direct links. We demonstrate our method using near surface air temperature reanalysis data, on identifying cross-latitude teleconnections and their corresponding optimal paths. The proposed method may be used to quantify and improve our understanding regarding the emergence of climate patterns on global scales.

  13. Urban land teleconnections and sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C.; Reenberg, Anette; Boone, Christopher G.; Fragkias, Michail; Haase, Dagmar; Langanke, Tobias; Marcotullio, Peter; Munroe, Darla K.; Olah, Branislav; Simon, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural–urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental “grand challenges” and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept. PMID:22550174

  14. Risk from drought and extreme heat in Russian wheat production and its relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Calanca, Pierluigi

    2017-04-01

    Russia has become one of the leading wheat exporters worldwide. Major breakdowns in Russian wheat production induced by extreme weather events are therefore of high significance not only for the domestic but also for the global market. Wheat production in south-western Russia, the main growing area, suffers in particular from the adverse effects of drought and heat waves. For this reason knowledge of the occurrence of this type of extreme events and of the processes that lead to adverse conditions is of paramount importance for risk management. The negative impacts of heat waves and drought are particularly severe when anomalous conditions persist in time. As an example, a blocking event in summer 2010 resulted in one of the warmest and worst drought conditions in Russia's recent history. The latter caused a decline in Russian wheat production by more than 30%, which in turn prompted the Russian government to issue an export ban that lasted until summer 2011. In view of this, the question of course arises of how much of the negative variations in Russian wheat production levels can be explained by blocking events and other features of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Specific questions are: how often are blocking events over Russia associated with extreme high temperatures and dry conditions? Which of the teleconnection patterns are correlated with drought and heat stress conditions in the area? Answering these questions can contribute to a develop strategies for agricultural risk management. In this contribution we present results of a study that aims at characterizing the occurrence of adverse weather conditions in south-western Russia in relation to atmospheric blocking and teleconnection patterns such as East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, the Polar/Eurasia pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern. The analysis relies on weather data for 1980-2014 from 130 stations distributed across the wheat production area. The account

  15. Regime Behavior in Paleo-Reconstructed Streamflow: Attributions to Atmospheric Dynamics, Synoptic Circulation and Large-Scale Climate Teleconnection Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Studies have shown that streamflow behavior and dynamics have a significant link with climate and climate variability. Patterns of persistent regime behavior from extended streamflow records in many watersheds justify investigating large-scale climate mechanisms as potential drivers of hydrologic regime behavior and streamflow variability. Understanding such streamflow-climate relationships is crucial to forecasting/simulation systems and the planning and management of water resources. In this study, hidden Markov models are used with reconstructed streamflow to detect regime-like behaviors - the hidden states - and state transition phenomena. Individual extreme events and their spatial variability across the basin are then verified with the identified states. Wavelet analysis is performed to examine the signals over time in the streamflow records. Joint analyses of the climatic data in the 20th century and the identified states are undertaken to better understand the hydroclimatic connections within the basin as well as important teleconnections that influence water supply. Compositing techniques are used to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with identified states of streamflow. The grouping of such synoptic patterns and their frequency are then examined. Sliding time-window correlation analysis and cross-wavelet spectral analysis are performed to establish the synchronicity of basin flows to the identified synoptic and teleconnection patterns. The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is examined in this study, both as a means of better understanding the synoptic climate controls in this important watershed and as a case study for the techniques developed here. Initial wavelet analyses of reconstructed streamflow at major gauges in the MRB show multidecadal cycles in regime behavior.

  16. Diversity in the representation of large-scale circulation associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnections in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Kumar, O. S. R. U. B.

    2018-04-01

    Realistic simulation of large-scale circulation patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is vital in coupled models in order to represent teleconnections to different regions of globe. The diversity in representing large-scale circulation patterns associated with ENSO-Indian summer monsoon (ISM) teleconnections in 23 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models is examined. CMIP5 models have been classified into three groups based on the correlation between Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and ISM rainfall anomalies, models in group 1 (G1) overestimated El Niño-ISM teleconections and group 3 (G3) models underestimated it, whereas these teleconnections are better represented in group 2 (G2) models. Results show that in G1 models, El Niño-induced Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are not well represented. Anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the southeastern TIO and western subtropical northwest Pacific (WSNP) cyclonic circulation are shifted too far west to 60° E and 120° E, respectively. This bias in circulation patterns implies dry wind advection from extratropics/midlatitudes to Indian subcontinent. In addition to this, large-scale upper level convergence together with lower level divergence over ISM region corresponding to El Niño are stronger in G1 models than in observations. Thus, unrealistic shift in low-level circulation centers corroborated by upper level circulation changes are responsible for overestimation of ENSO-ISM teleconnections in G1 models. Warm Pacific SST anomalies associated with El Niño are shifted too far west in many G3 models unlike in the observations. Further large-scale circulation anomalies over the Pacific and ISM region are misrepresented during El Niño years in G3 models. Too strong upper-level convergence away from Indian subcontinent and too weak WSNP cyclonic circulation are prominent in most of G3 models in which ENSO-ISM teleconnections are

  17. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  18. The Asian-Bering-North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Lin, H.; Wu, Z. W.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2018-03-01

    The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific-North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features a zonally elongated wavetrain originating from North Asia and flowing downstream across Bering Sea and Strait towards North America. The large-scale teleconnection is a year-round phenomenon that displays strong seasonality with the peak variability in winter. North American surface temperature and temperature extremes, including warm days and nights as well as cold days and nights, are significantly controlled by this teleconnection. The ABNA pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere and is supported by synoptic-scale eddy forcing in the upper troposphere. Its associated sea surface temperature anomalies exhibit a horseshoe-shaped structure in the North Pacific, most prominent in winter, which is driven by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The snow cover anomalies over the West Siberian plain and Central Siberian Plateau in autumn and spring and over southern Siberia in winter may act as a forcing influence on the ABNA pattern. The snow forcing influence in winter and spring can be traced back to the preceding season, which provides a predictability source for this teleconnection and for North American temperature variability. The ABNA associated energy budget is dominated by surface longwave radiation anomalies year-round, with the temperature anomalies supported by anomalous downward longwave radiation and damped by upward longwave radiation at the surface.

  19. Possible teleconnections between East and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in projected future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

    2018-01-01

    The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010-2039), mid-(2040-2069) and far-(2070-2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea-Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea-Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea-Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea-Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea-Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity.

  20. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  1. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  2. Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

  3. Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya.We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004-2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3-4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found

  4. The Mass Balance of Glacier No. 1 at the Headwaters of the Urumqi River in Relation to Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feifei Yuan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Most small glaciers in the world have significantly decreased their volume during the last century, which has caused water shortage problems. Glacier No. 1, at the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan, China, has been monitored since 1959 and similarly has experienced significant mass and volume losses over the last few decades. Thus, we examined the trend and potential abrupt changes of the mass balance of Glacier No. 1. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 and Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns using climate indices. It was found that the mass balance of Glacier No. 1 had a significantly decreasing trend corresponding to −14.5 mm/year from 1959 to 2010. A change point was detected in 1997 with 99% confidence level. Two time periods with different mass balances were identified as 1959–1996 and 1997–2010. The mass balance for the first period was −136.4 mm/year and up to −663.9 mm/year for the second period. The mass balance of Glacier No. 1 is positively related to the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA, and negatively related to the East Atlantic Pattern (EA. These relationships are useful in better understanding the interaction between glacier mass balance and climate variability.

  5. Combined Effects of Synoptic-Scale Teleconnection Patterns on Summer Precipitation in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Using ERA-Interim daily reanalysis and precipitation data, the combined effects of East Asia-Pacific (EAP and Silk Road (SR teleconnection patterns on summer precipitation in Southern China were investigated on synoptic to sub-monthly timescales. Combined EAP and SR patterns lead to more persistent and extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV and exhibit an obvious zonal advance between the South Asia High (SAH and Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH prior to its onset. During typical combined events, an overlap between the SAH and WPSH remains in a favorable position for Persistent Extreme Precipitation (PEP. Furthermore, SR-induced acceleration of the westerly jet stream and extra positive vorticity advection provide persistent upper-level divergence for YRV precipitation. An anomalous EAP-related cyclone/anticyclone pair over East Asia induces enhanced low-level southwesterlies to the northern anticyclone flank and northerlies from the mid-latitudes, advecting anomalously abundant moisture toward the YRV, resulting in clear moisture convergence. Moreover, the strong ascent of warmer/moister air along a quasi-stationary front may be crucial for PEP. During decay, the SAH and WPSH diverge from each other and retreat to their normal positions, and the strong ascent of warmer/moister air rapidly weakens to dissipation, terminating PEP in the YRV.

  6. Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20

  7. Strong links between teleconnections and ecosystem exchange found at a Pacific Northwest old-growth forest from flux tower and MODIS EVI data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Wharton; Laura Chasmer; Matthias Falk; Kyaw Tha Paw U

    2009-01-01

    Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use 9 years of eddy covariance...

  8. Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng

    2017-04-01

    The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.

  9. Teleconnected food supply shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bren d'Amour, Christopher; Wenz, Leonie; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Creutzig, Felix

    2016-03-01

    The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.

  10. Predicting summer monsoon of Bhutan based on SST and teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorji, Singay; Herath, Srikantha; Mishra, Binaya Kumar; Chophel, Ugyen

    2018-02-01

    The paper uses a statistical method of predicting summer monsoon over Bhutan using the ocean-atmospheric circulation variables of sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and selected teleconnection indices. The predictors are selected based on the correlation. They are the SST and MSLP of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and the MSLP of Bangladesh and northeast India. The Northern Hemisphere teleconnections of East Atlantic Pattern (EA), West Pacific Pattern (WP), Pacific/North American Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR). The rainfall station data are grouped into two regions with principal components analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering algorithm. A support vector machine for regression model is proposed to predict the monsoon. The model shows improved skills over traditional linear regression. The model was able to predict the summer monsoon for the test data from 2011 to 2015 with a total monthly root mean squared error of 112 mm for region A and 33 mm for region B. Model could also forecast the 2016 monsoon of the South Asia Monsoon Outlook of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for Bhutan. The reliance on agriculture and hydropower economy makes the prediction of summer monsoon highly valuable information for farmers and various other sectors. The proposed method can predict summer monsoon for operational forecasting.

  11. Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dätwyler, Christoph; Neukom, Raphael; Abram, Nerilie J.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Grosjean, Martin; Jacques-Coper, Martín; Karoly, David J.; Villalba, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5-95% range of pre-industrial natural variability.

  12. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

  13. Interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate over the past five centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Xie, S. P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño influence on monsoon Asia climate weakened during the mid-20th century and strenthened substantially after the late 1970s. Exploring the nature of such an interdecadal variation is constrained by short instrumental records. Here we synthesize the Indo-Pacific tree-rings and coral records to reconstruct monsoon Asia temperature and moisture change during the past five centuries, and show that the interdecadal modulation of El Niño teleconnection on monsoon Asia climate is a robust feature beyond the instrumenal era. Comparison with proxy El Niño records indicates that the El Niño-monsoon Asia climate teleconnection is controlled by interdecadal changes in ENSO variance, with strong (weak) teleconnection in periods of high (low) variance, respectively.

  14. Impact of dynamical regionalization on precipitation biases and teleconnections over West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómara, Iñigo; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Domínguez, Marta; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén

    2018-06-01

    West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM). Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to characterize the WAM dynamics and variability is assessed for the period July-August-September 1979-2004. Simulations are compared with observations. Uncertainties in RCM performance and lateral boundary conditions are assessed individually. Results show that both GCMs and RCMs have trouble to simulate the northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in boreal summer. The greatest bias improvements are obtained after regionalization of the most inaccurate GCM simulations. To assess WAM variability, a Maximum Covariance Analysis is performed between Sea Surface Temperature and precipitation anomalies in observations, GCM and RCM simulations. The assessed variability patterns are: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the eastern Mediterranean (MED); and the Atlantic Equatorial Mode (EM). Evidence is given that regionalization of the ENSO-WAM teleconnection does not provide any added value. Unlike GCMs, RCMs are unable to precisely represent the ENSO impact on air subsidence over West Africa. Contrastingly, the simulation of the MED-WAM teleconnection is improved after regionalization. Humidity advection and convergence over the Sahel area are better simulated by RCMs. Finally, no robust conclusions can be determined for the EM-WAM teleconnection, which cannot be isolated for the 1979-2004 period. The novel results in this article will help to select the most appropriate RCM simulations to study WAM teleconnections.

  15. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  16. Spatial patterns of sea surface temperature influences on East African precipitation as revealed by empirical orthogonal teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim eAppelhans

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available East Africa is characterized by a rather dry annual precipitation climatology with two distinct rainy seasons. In order to investigate sea surface temperature driven precipitation anomalies for the region we use the algorithm of empirical orthogonal teleconnection analysis as a data mining tool. We investigate the entire East African domain as well as 5 smaller sub-regions mainly located in areas of mountainous terrain. In searching for influential sea surface temperature patterns we do not focus any particular season or oceanic region. Furthermore, we investigate different time lags from zero to twelve months. The strongest influence is identified for the immediate (i.e. non-lagged influences of the Indian Ocean in close vicinity to the East African coast. None of the most important modes are located in the tropical Pacific Ocean, though the region is sometimes coupled with the Indian Ocean basin. Furthermore, we identify a region in the southern Indian Ocean around the Kerguelen Plateau which has not yet been reported in the literature with regard to precipitation modulation in East Africa. Finally, it is observed that not all regions in East Africa are equally influenced by the identified patterns.

  17. Met UM Upper-tropospheric summer jet teleconnections: A model assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joao Carvalho, Maria; Rodriguez, Jose; Milton, Sean

    2017-04-01

    The upper tropospheric jet stream has been documented to act as a waveguide (Hoskins and Ambrizzi, 1993) and supporting quasi-stationary Rossby waves (Schubert et al. 2011). These have been associated with remote effects in surface level weather such as rainfall anomalies in the East Asian Summer Monsoon as well as extreme temperature events. The goal of this work was to analyse the intraseasonal to interannual upper level boreal summer jet variability and its coupling with low level atmospheric dynamics within the Met Office Unified Model using climate runs. Using the Wallace and Gutzler (1981) proposed approach to find teleconnection patterns on the 200 hPa level wind, lead-lag correlation and Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis on the upper-level jet and relating the results with surface weather variables as well as dynamical variables, it was found that the model presents too strong jet variability, particularly in the tropical region and. In addition, the model presents high teleconnectivity hotspots with higher importance in areas such as the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea which are important source areas for Rossby Waves. Further to this, the model was found to produce an area of teleconnectivity between the tropical Atlantic and western Africa which is not observed in the reanalysis but coexists with long lasting precipitation biases. As comparison for the model results, ERA-Interim circulation and wind data and the TRMM precipitation dataset were used. In order to assess the relative importance of relevant model parameters in the biases and process errors, work is currently underway using perturbed model parameter ensembles.

  18. El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.

    2017-12-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  19. Temporal-spatial characteristics of severe drought events in Southwest China and their relationships to teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P., III; Wu, C.; Hao, Y.; Xu, K.

    2017-12-01

    In the process of global warming, the frequency and intensity of a series of climate events (such as, precipitation, flood disaster, climate arid) are also being changed. Even in the today of advanced science and technology, the occurrence and severity of drought in China is still devastating impact on social and economic development. We studied the spatial and temporal variability of drought in southwestern China China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. We used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to investigate the variation in drought in southwestern China between 1961 and 2012 using the Mann-Kendall (MK), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. Additionally, We analyzed the relationships between the time variability of significant patterns and teleconnection indices. The PDSI shows that there is a trend of turning dry in west Tibet; while it is remarkably drying in junction of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing provinces, and the drought in Spring is more severe than in autumn, with a changing oscillation period of 2-7a. It's found the drought strength reducing before rising without a obvious turning point. Also, the drought frequency staggered in spatial distribution, and a larger inter-annual difference. AO and SS are the most important factors among all the drought influence factors, the others differ from the importance.

  20. Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-12-01

    Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

  1. Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

    2017-12-01

    The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

  2. El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

    2017-07-01

    Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

  3. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  4. Teleconnection between sea ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road, Pacific-Japan and East Asian rainfall patterns in August

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Shengping; Gao, Yongqi; Furevik, Tore; Wang, Huijun; Li, Fei

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to previous studies that have tended to focus on the influence of the total Arctic sea-ice cover on the East Asian summer tripole rainfall pattern, the present study identifies the Barents Sea as the key region where the June sea-ice variability exerts the most significant impacts on the East Asian August tripole rainfall pattern, and explores the teleconnection mechanisms involved. The results reveal that a reduction in June sea ice excites anomalous upward air motion due to strong near-surface thermal forcing, which further triggers a meridional overturning wave-like pattern extending to midlatitudes. Anomalous downward motion therefore forms over the Caspian Sea, which in turn induces zonally oriented overturning circulation along the subtropical jet stream, exhibiting the east-west Rossby wave train known as the Silk Road pattern. It is suggested that the Bonin high, a subtropical anticyclone predominant near South Korea, shows a significant anomaly due to the eastward extension of the Silk Road pattern to East Asia. As a possible descending branch of the Hadley cell, the Bonin high anomaly ultimately triggers a meridional overturning, establishing the Pacific-Japan pattern. This in turn induces an anomalous anticyclone and cyclone pair over East Asia, and a tripole vertical convection anomaly meridionally oriented over East Asia. Consequently, a tripole rainfall anomaly pattern is observed over East Asia. Results from numerical experiments using version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model support the interpretation of this chain of events.

  5. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Martin P.; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel

    2018-03-01

    We investigate the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies associated to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that are related to the eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillations in the late autumn (November). This research is motivated by the need for improving understanding of the autumn climate conditions which can impact on winter climate, as well as the relative lack of study on the boreal autumn climate processes compared to winter. Using reanalysis and SST datasets available from the late nineteenth century through the recent years, we found that there are two major atmospheric responses; one is a hemispheric-wide wave number-4 pattern, another has a more annular pattern. Both of these project on the East Atlantic pattern (southward-shifted North Atlantic Oscillation) in the Atlantic sector. Which of the patterns is active is suggested to depend on the background mean flow, with the annular anomaly active in the most recent decades, while the wave-4 pattern in the decades before. This switch is associated with a change of correlation sign in the North Pacific. We discuss the robustness of this finding. The ability of two atmospheric general circulation models (ICTP-AGCM and ECHAM-AGCM) to reproduce the teleconnections is also examined. Evidence provided shows that the wave-4 pattern and the East Atlantic pattern signals can be reproduced by the models, while the shift from this to an annular response for the recent years is not found conclusively.

  6. The impact of monthly variation of the Pacific–North America (PNA teleconnection pattern on wintertime surface-layer aerosol concentrations in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Feng

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific–North America teleconnection (PNA is the leading general circulation pattern in the troposphere over the region of North Pacific to North America during wintertime. This study examined the impacts of monthly variations of the PNA phase (positive or negative phase on wintertime surface-layer aerosol concentrations in the United States (US by analyzing observations during 1999–2013 from the Air Quality System of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA-AQS and the model results for 1986–2006 from the global three-dimensional Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem. The composite analyses on the EPA-AQS observations over 1999–2013 showed that the average concentrations of PM2.5, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols over the US were higher in the PNA positive phases (25 % of the winter months examined, and this fraction of months had the highest positive PNA index values than in the PNA negative phases (25 % of the winter months examined, and this fraction of months had the highest negative PNA index values by 1.0 µg m−3 (8.7 %, 0.01 µg m−3 (0.5 %, 0.3 µg m−3 (29.1 %, 0.1 µg m−3 (11.9 %, 0.6 µg m−3 (13.5 %, and 0.2 µg m−3 (27.8 %, respectively. The simulated geographical patterns of the differences in concentrations of all aerosol species between the PNA positive and negative phases were similar to observations. Based on the GEOS-Chem simulation, the pattern correlation coefficients were calculated to show the impacts of PNA-induced variations in meteorological fields on aerosol concentrations. The PNA phase was found (i to influence sulfate concentrations mainly through changes in planetary boundary layer height (PBLH, precipitation (PR, and temperature; (ii to influence nitrate concentrations mainly through changes in temperature; and (iii to influence concentrations of ammonium, organic carbon, and black

  7. Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

    2017-12-31

    Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

  8. Variability patterns of Rossby wave source

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, Marilia Harumi; Albuquerque Cavalcanti, Iracema Fonseca de [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), Sao Jose dos Campos (Brazil)

    2011-08-15

    Rossby waves (RW) propagation due to a local forcing is one of the mechanisms responsible for wave trains configurations known as teleconnections. The term teleconnection refers to anomalies patterns that are correlated in several regions of the world, causing large-scale changes in atmospheric waves patterns and temperature and precipitation regimes. The aim of teleconnections studies is to provide a better understanding of atmospheric variability and their mechanisms of action in order to identify patterns that can be tracked and predicted. The purpose of this study was to characterize seasonal and spatial variability of atmospheric RW sources. The RW source at 200 hPa was calculated for the four seasons with reanalysis data of zonal and meridional wind. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH), the RW sources were located on East Asia, North America, North Atlantic and Pacific. The main RW sources in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) were located over Intertropical, South Pacific, South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Extratropical regions were also identified, mainly to the south of Australia. The vortex stretching term (S1) and the advection of absolute vorticity by the divergent wind (S2) were analyzed to discuss the physical mechanisms for RW generation. In the NH, the source at East Asia in DJF changed to a sink in JJA, related to the dominance of S1 term in DJF and S2 term in JJA. In the SH, the vortex stretching term had the dominant contribution for RW source located to the south of Australia. The main forcing for RW sources at east of Australia was the advection of absolute vorticity by divergent flow. Over South America, both terms contributed to the source in DJF. The main modes of RW source variability were discussed by using empirical orthogonal functions analysis. RW variability was characterized by wave trains configurations in both hemispheres over regions of jet streams and storm tracks, associated with favorable and unfavorable areas for RW

  9. Multi-scale Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Using Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals and Artificial Neural Network Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can affect terrestrial precipitation via ocean-atmosphere interaction known as climate teleconnection. Non-stationary and non-linear characteristics of the ocean-atmosphere system make the identification of the teleconnection signals...

  10. Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Franzke

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

    The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ2 distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

  11. Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endris, Hussen Seid; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Artan, Guleid A.

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the projected changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in terms of mean state, intensity and frequency, and associated rainfall anomalies over eastern Africa. Two regional climate models driven by the same four global climate models (GCMs) and the corresponding GCM simulations are used to investigate projected changes in teleconnection patterns and East African rainfall. The period 1976-2005 is taken as the reference for present climate and the far-future climate (2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) is analyzed for projected change. Analyses of projections based on GCMs indicate an El Niño-like (positive IOD-like) warming pattern over the tropical Pacific (Indian) Ocean. However, large uncertainties remain in the projected future changes in ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity with some GCMs show increase of ENSO/IOD frequency and intensity, and others a decrease or no/small change. Projected changes in mean rainfall over eastern Africa based on the GCM and RCM data indicate a decrease in rainfall over most parts of the region during JJAS and MAM seasons, and an increase in rainfall over equatorial and southern part of the region during OND, with the greatest changes in equatorial region. During ENSO and IOD years, important changes in the strength of the teleconnections are found. During JJAS, when ENSO is an important driver of rainfall variability over the region, both GCM and RCM projections show an enhanced La Niña-related rainfall anomaly compared to the present period. Although the long rains (MAM) have little association with ENSO in the reference period, both GCMs and RCMs project stronger ENSO teleconnections in the future. On the other hand, during the short rains (OND), a dipole future change in rainfall teleconnection associated with ENSO and IOD is found, with a stronger ENSO/IOD related rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of the domain

  12. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  13. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Jones, Richard G.; Halladay, Kate; Allen, Myles R.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical rainforests in Africa are one of the most under-researched regions in the world, but research in the Amazonian rainforest suggests potential vulnerability to climate change. Using the large ensemble of Atmosphere-only general circulation model (AGCM) simulations within the weather@home project, statistics of precipitation in the dry season of the Congo Basin rainforest are analysed. By validating the model simulation against observations, we could identify a good model performance for the June, July, August (JJA) dry season, but this result does need to be taken with caution as observed data are of poor quality. Additional validation methods have been used to investigate the applicability of probabilistic event attribution analysis from large model ensembles to a tropical region, in this case the Congo Basin. These methods corroborate the confidence in the model, leading us to believe the attribution result to be robust. That is, that there are no significant changes in the risk of low precipitation extremes during this dry season (JJA) precipitation in the Congo Basin. Results for the December, January, February dry season are less clear. The study highlights that attribution analysis has the potential to provide valuable scientific evidence of recent or anticipated climatological changes, especially in regions with sparse observational data and unclear projections of future changes. However, the strong influence of sea surface temperature teleconnection patterns on tropical precipitation provides more challenges in the set up of attribution studies than midlatitude rainfall. PMID:23878330

  14. Trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections pose a correlated risk to global agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W. B.; Seager, R.; Cane, M. A.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of interannual climate variability, particularly in the Pacific Basin. ENSO life-cycles tend to evolve over multiple years, as do the associated trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections. This analysis, however, represents the first attempt to characterize the structure of the risk posed by ENSO to wheat, maize and soybean production across the Pacific Basin. Our results indicate that most ENSO teleconnections relevant for crop flowering seasons are the result of a single trans-Pacific circulation anomaly that develops in boreal summer and persists through the spring. During the late summer and early fall of a developing ENSO event, the tropical Pacific forces an atmospheric anomaly in the midlatitudes that spans the Pacific Basin. This teleconnection directly links the soybean and maize growing seasons of the US, Mexico and China. It also connects the wheat growing seasons of Argentina, southern Brazil and Australia. The ENSO event peaks in boreal winter, when the atmospheric circulation anomalies intensify and affect maize and soybeans in southeast South America. As the event decays, the ENSO-induced circulation anomalies persist through the wheat flowering seasons in China and the US. While the prospect of ENSO forcing simultaneous droughts in major food producing regions seems disastrous, there may be a silver lining from the perspective of global food security: trans-Pacific ENSO teleconnections to yields are often offsetting between major producing regions in the eastern and western portions of the Pacific Basin. El Niños tend to create good maize and soybean growing conditions in the US and southeast South America, but poor growing conditions in China, Mexico and northeast Brazil. The opposite is true during La Niña. Wheat growing conditions in southeast South America generally have the opposite sign of those in Australia. Finally, we investigate how trade networks interact with this structure of ENSO

  15. Strong Links Between Teleconnections and Ecosystem Exchange Found at a Pacific Northwest Old-Growth Forest from Flux Tower and MODIS EVI Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wharton, S; Chasmer, L; Falk, M; Paw U, K T

    2009-03-12

    Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use nine years of eddy covariance CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O and energy fluxes measured at the Wind River AmeriFlux site, Washington, USA and eight years of tower-pixel remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to address this question. We compute a new Composite Climate Index (CCI) based on the three Pacific Oscillations to divide the measurement period into positive- (2003 and 2005), negative- (1999 and 2000) and neutral-phase climate years (2001, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2007). The forest transitioned from an annual net carbon sink (NEP = + 217 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 1999) to a source (NEP = - 100 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 2003) during two dominant teleconnection patterns. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) were significantly different (P < 0.01) during positive (NEP = -0.27 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 4.1 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.94 g C MJ{sup -1}) and negative (NEP = +0.37 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 3.4 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.83 g C MJ{sup -1}) climate phases. The CCI was linked to variability in the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) but not to MODIS Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). EVI was highest during negative climate phases (1999 and 2000) and was positively correlated with NEP and showed potential for using MODIS to estimate teleconnection-driven anomalies in ecosystem CO{sub 2} exchange in old-growth forests. This work suggests that any increase in the strength or frequency of ENSO coinciding with in-phase, low frequency Pacific oscillations (PDO and PNA) will likely increase

  16. Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

    2017-09-01

    Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to

  17. Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan

    2018-06-01

    Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to

  18. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Mussie T.; Jain, Shaleen

    2018-06-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies—in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events—based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Niño patterns show 20-80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20-40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Niño. Similarly, EP El Niño is linked to a 40-80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented.

  19. Inter-annual climate variability and zooplankton: applying teleconnection indices to two deep subalpine lakes in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina Manca

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investigating relation between meteo-climatic indices and between-year variation in Daphnia population density and phenology is crucial for e.g. predicting impact of climate change on lake ecosystem structure and functioning. We tested whether and how two teleconnection indices calculated for the winter period, namely the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF were correlated with Daphnia population growth in two Italian subalpine lakes, Garda and Maggiore. We investigated between-lake temporal coherence in: i water temperature within the water layer in which Daphnia is distributed; ii timing of Daphnia initial and spring maximum population density peak and iii the level of Daphnia spring maximum population density peak over an eleven-year period (1998-2008 of unchanged predation pressure by fish and invertebrates, and of common oligotrophy. Between-lake temporal coherence was high for an earlier start, an earlier, and lower, Daphnia population spring density peak after milder winters. Peak density level was coherently, positively correlated with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP concentration. We hypothesized that Daphnia peak densities were related to atmospheric modes of variability in winter and to the degree of late winter mixing promoting replenishment of algal nutrients into upper water layers and phytoplankton growth, enhancing food availability and Daphnia fecundity, promoting Daphnia peak. 

  20. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  1. Evidence of Teleconnections between the Peruvian central Andes and Northeast Brazil during extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Silva, F. Y.; Takahashi, K.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge about changes in regional circulation and physical processes associated with extreme rainfall events in South America is limited. Here we investigate such events over the Mantaro basin (MB) located at (10°S-13°S; 73°W-76°W) in the central Peruvian Andes and Northeastern Brazil (NEB), located at (9°S-15°S; 39°W-46°W). Occasional dry and wet spells can be observed in both areas during the austral summer season. The main goal of this study is to investigate potential teleconnections between extreme rainfall events in MB and NEB during austral summer. We define wet (dry) spells as periods that last for at least 3 (5) consecutive days with rainfall above (below) the 70 (30) percentile. To identify the dates of ocurrence of these events, we used daily accumulated rainfall data from 14 climate stations located in the Mantaro basin for the period 1965 to 2002. In NEB we defined a rainfall index which is based on average daily gridded rainfall data within the region for the same period. Dry (wet spells) in the MB are associated with positive (negative) OLR anomalies which extend over much of the tropical Andes, indicating the large-scale nature of these events. At 200 hPa anomalous easterly (westerly) zonal winds aloft accompany wet (dry) spells. Composite anomalies of dry spells in MB reveal significant contemporaneous precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign over NEB, which suggest that intraseasonal precipitation variability over the two regions may be dynamically linked. Indeed upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the central Andes extend across South America and appear to be tied to an adjustment in the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low system. Dry (wet) spells in NEB are equally associated with a large-scale pattern of positive (negative) OLR anomalies; however, there are no related significant OLR anomalies over the MB during these events. Dry (wet) spells are associated with robust patterns of anomalous wind fields at both low and upper

  2. Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Small, Jennifer L.; Collins, Katherine M.; Tucker, Compton J.; Pak, Edwin W.; Britch, Seth C.; Eastman, James Ronald; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Russell, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

  3. Atmospheric summer teleconnections and Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass variations: insights from MERRA-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D; Molod, Andrea M; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Nowicki, Sophie M J; Lee, Jae N; Velicogna, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between leading atmospheric teleconnection patterns and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) temperature, precipitation, and surface mass balance (SMB) are investigated for the last 36 summers (1979–2014) based on Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 reanalyses. The results indicate that the negative phase of both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation, associated with warm and dry conditions for the GrIS, lead to SMB decreases within 0–1 months. Furthermore, the positive phase of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern often lags the negative NAO, reflecting a dynamical linkage between these modes that acts to further enhance the warm and dry conditions over the GrIS, leading to a favorable environment for enhanced surface mass loss. The development of a strong negative NAO in combination with a strong positive EA in recent years leads to significantly larger GrIS warming compared to when the negative NAO occurs in combination with a negative or weak positive EA (0.69 K versus 0.13 K anomaly). During 2009 and 2011, weakened (as compared to conditions during the severe surface melt cases of 2010 and 2012) local high pressure blocking produced colder northerly flow over the GrIS inhibiting warming despite the occurrence of a strong negative NAO, reflecting an important role for the EA during those years. In particular, the EA acts with the NAO to enhance warming in 2010 and 2012, and weaken high pressure blocking in 2009 and 2011. In general, high pressure blocking primarily impacts the western areas of the GrIS via advective temperature increases, while changes in net surface radiative fluxes account for both western and eastern GrIS temperature changes. (letter)

  4. Spatiotemporal dynamics of historical droughts over Canada: role of observational uncertainties and teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asong, Z. E.; Wheater, H. S.; Bonsal, B. R.; Razavi, S.; Kurkute, S.

    2017-12-01

    Drought is a naturally occurring environmental phenomenon, and a major costly natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional water resources, agriculture, energy and other social-ecological systems. Of particular interest here is drought occurrence over Canada, where drought is both a frequent and damaging phenomenon, particularly in the interior Prairie region. However, nation-wide drought assessments are currently lacking and hampered partly by observational uncertainties. Therefore, this study aims to fill these gaps by providing a comprehensive analysis of historical droughts over the whole of Canada, including the role of observational uncertainties and teleconnectivity. This is carried out by analysing different monthly precipitation and temperature products for the period 1950 - 2013. Drought events are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over various temporal scales (1, 3, 6, and 12 consecutive months and 6 months from April to September and 12 months from October to September). First, trends in the SPEI are investigated by means of the Modified Mann Kendall test, while the Pettitt test was used to detect change points/transition years during the period of record. Major spatial patterns of long-term change, inter/intra-annual variability and periodicity of drought events are then characterized using the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function, and Continuous Wavelet Transform techniques. In addition, potential key drivers of drought are investigated using Wavelet Coherence Analysis, with a special emphasis on the role played by large-scale modes of climate variability. This provides important insight into the physical and dynamical mechanisms associated with the variability of drought events over different Canadian sub-regions.

  5. Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2014-01-01

    The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

  6. Non-Linear Dependence and Teleconnections in Climate Data: Sources, Relevance, Nonstationarity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlinka, Jaroslav; Hartman, David; Vejmelka, Martin; Novotná, Dagmar; Paluš, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 7-8 (2014), s. 1873-1886 ISSN 0930-7575 R&D Projects: GA ČR GCP103/11/J068 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : climate networks * nonlinearity * mutual information * teleconnections * seasonality in variance * nonstationarity Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.673, year: 2014

  7. The Caspian Sea Catchment influenced by Atlantic Teleconnections in CESM1.2.2 and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandini, S. D.; Prange, M.; Schulz, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world's largest inland sea and located within a closed (endorheic) drainage basin [ 37°-47N, 47°-54°E]. It has undergone dynamic variations (>3 m) during the past century with huge impacts on the economy, ecosystem and livelihood of coastal people. The origin of these variations as well as future changes are disputable. Here, we examine the impact of the major seasonal North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) on Caspian hydroclimate variability from 1850-2100 CE. Five Numerical experiments at different atmospheric grid resolutions (2° and 1°) and atmospheric model versions (CAM4 and CAM5) are carried out with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). Results reveal the 1° CESM1.2.2 CAM5 captures DJF NAO (46.5%) and EA (13.4%), agreeing well with observational data (1850-2000). The DJF NAO has a strong influence on the DJF temperature, rainfall and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Caspian sub-basins (Volga, Ural, Terek and Kura). Furthermore, 1° model climate projections (2020-2100 CE) are performed with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to examine likely changes in the NAO and EA and their influence on the Caspian catchment. The NAO under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios remains the leading mode with the highest variance and influences E-P with increased precipitation over the Volga basin and increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea. The above canceling effects act on the hydroclimate variability in the Caspian sub-basins. Moreover, it is indicated that no substantial change is predicted in the CSL by the year 2100. Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), CESM1.2.2 resolutions, Evaporation minus Precipitation (E-P), RCP4.5, RCP8.5

  8. The Signature of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Antarctic Precipitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J; Thompson, David W J; van den Broeke, Michiel R

    2017-11-28

    We provide the first comprehensive analysis of the relationships between large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and the detailed structure of Antarctic precipitation. We examine linkages between the high spatial resolution precipitation from a regional atmospheric model and four patterns of large-scale Southern Hemisphere climate variability: the southern baroclinic annular mode, the southern annular mode, and the two Pacific-South American teleconnection patterns. Variations in all four patterns influence the spatial configuration of precipitation over Antarctica, consistent with their signatures in high-latitude meridional moisture fluxes. They impact not only the mean but also the incidence of extreme precipitation events. Current coupled-climate models are able to reproduce all four patterns of atmospheric variability but struggle to correctly replicate their regional impacts on Antarctic climate. Thus, linking these patterns directly to Antarctic precipitation variability may allow a better estimate of future changes in precipitation than using model output alone.

  9. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  10. South Asian high and Asian-Pacific-American climate teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peiqun; Song, Yang; Kousky, Vernon E.

    2005-11-01

    Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH), the mid-Pacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

  11. Interhemispheric teleconnections: Late Pliocene change in Mediterranean outflow water linked to changes in Indonesian Through-Flow and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a review and update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarnthein, Michael; Grunert, Patrick; Khélifi, Nabil; Frank, Martin; Nürnberg, Dirk

    2018-03-01

    The ultimate, possibly geodynamic control and potential impact of changes in circulation activity and salt discharge of Mediterranean outflow waters (MOW) on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation have formed long-standing objectives in paleoceanography. Late Pliocene changes in the distal advection of MOW were reconstructed on orbital timescales for northeast Atlantic DSDP/ODP sites 548 and 982 off Brittany and on Rockall Plateau, supplemented by a proximal record from Site U1389 west off Gibraltar, and compared to Western Mediterranean surface and deep-water records of Alboran Sea Site 978. From 3.43 to 3.3 Ma, MOW temperatures and salinities form a prominent rise by 2-4 °C and 3 psu, induced by a preceding and coeval rise in sea surface and deep-water salinity and increased summer aridity in the Mediterranean Sea. We speculate that these changes triggered an increased MOW flow and were ultimately induced by a persistent 2.5 °C cooling of Indonesian Through-Flow waters. The temperature drop resulted from the northward drift of Australia that crossed a threshold value near 3.6-3.3 Ma and led to a large-scale cooling of the eastern subtropical Indian Ocean and in turn, to a reduction of African monsoon rains. Vice versa, we show that the distinct rise in Mediterranean salt export after 3.4 Ma induced a unique long-term rise in the formation of Upper North Atlantic Deep Water, that followed with a phase lag of 100 ky. In summary, we present evidence for an interhemispheric teleconnection of processes in the Indonesian Gateways, the Mediterranean and Labrador Seas, jointly affecting Pliocene climate.

  12. Stratospheric role in interdecadal changes of El Niño impacts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayarzagüena, B.; López-Parages, J.; Iza, M.; Calvo, N.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

    2018-04-01

    The European precipitation response to El Niño (EN) has been found to present interdecadal changes, with alternated periods of important or negligible EN impact in late winter. These periods are associated with opposite phases of multi-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability, which modifies the tropospheric background and EN teleconnections. In addition, other studies have shown how SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and in particular, the location of the largest anomalous SST, modulate the stratospheric response to EN. Nevertheless, the role of the stratosphere on the stationarity of EN response has not been investigated in detail so far. Using reanalysis data, we present a comprehensive study of EN teleconnections to Europe including the role of the ocean background and the stratosphere in the stationarity of the signal. The results reveal multidecadal variability in the location of EN-related SST anomalies that determines different teleconnections. In periods with relevant precipitation signal over Europe, the EN SST pattern resembles Eastern Pacific EN and the stratospheric pathway plays a key role in transmitting the signal to Europe in February, together with two tropospheric wavetrains that transmit the signal in February and April. Conversely, the stratospheric pathway is not detected in periods with a weak EN impact on European precipitation, corresponding to EN-related SST anomalies primarily located over the central Pacific. SST mean state and its associated atmospheric background control the location of EN-related SST anomalies in different periods and modulate the establishment of the aforementioned stratospheric pathway of EN teleconnection to Europe too.

  13. The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, E. T.

    2017-12-01

    Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

  14. A New Inter-Hemispheric Teleconnection Increases Predictability of Winter Precipitation in Southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamalakis, A.; Yu, J. Y.; Randerson, J. T.; AghaKouchak, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early and reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Traditional drivers of winter precipitation in the SWUS have been linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal/multidecadal oscillations of the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and persistent high-pressure ridges over the Gulf of Alaska. However, ENSO as well as other climate modes exhibit weak statistical relationships with precipitation and low predictability as lead time increases. Grounded on the hypothesis that still undiscovered relationships between large-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics and SWUS precipitation might exist, here we followed a diagnostic approach by which instead of restricting ourselves to the established teleconnections, we analyzed systematically the correlation of global sea surface temperature (SST) and geopotential height (GPH) with winter precipitation amounts in all climatic divisions in the SWUS, for 1950-2015. Our results show that late-summer persistent SST and GPH anomalies in the subtropical southwestern Pacific are strongly connected with winter precipitation in most climatic divisions, exhibiting higher correlation values than ENSO, and thus increasing the potential for earlier and more accurate precipitation prediction. Cross validation and 30-year running average analysis starting in 1950 suggest an amplification of the detected teleconnections over the past three to four decades. The latter is most likely a result of the reported expansion of the tropics, which has started after the 1980s, and allows SST or GPH variability at lower latitudes to affect the meridional atmospheric circulation. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.

  15. Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2018-04-01

    Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

  16. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  17. Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

  18. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Gnanaseelan, C.; Sreenivas, P.

    2014-01-01

    Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection.

  19. Temporal changes in the Euphrates and Tigris discharges and teleconnections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sen, O L; Unal, A; Bozkurt, D; Kindap, T

    2011-01-01

    The streamflow timings of the Euphrates and Tigris, two important snow-fed rivers in the Middle East, are found to be shifting to earlier days in the year. Six out of eight stations indicate statistically significant shifts between two consecutive 17-year periods (i.e. 1972-88 and 1990-2006). Among these stations, the average shift to earlier times is over 5 days, suggesting earlier spring melting of snowpack due to increased temperatures in the second period. A striking increase in the discharges takes place during the first half of March, and it is observed at all stream gauging sites considered in this study. An analysis based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data indicates that warming which results in this increase is associated with the switching from the northeasterly flow to southwesterly flow over the Black Sea and western Anatolia caused by the weakening of the Siberian High over eastern Europe. These changes in the circulation features from the first to second periods are found to be very consistent with the positive and negative phases of the North Sea-Caspian pattern.

  20. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM 2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM 2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM 2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM 2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  1. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-01-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization. PMID:27956874

  2. Globalization and pollution: tele-connecting local primary PM2.5 emissions to global consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Jing; Liu, Junfeng; Xu, Yuan; Guan, Dabo; Liu, Zhu; Huang, Ye; Tao, Shu

    2016-11-01

    Globalization pushes production and consumption to geographically diverse locations and generates a variety of sizeable opportunities and challenges. The distribution and associated effects of short-lived primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a representative of local pollution, are significantly affected by the consumption through global supply chain. Tele-connection is used here to represent the link between production and consumption activity at large distances. In this study, we develop a global consumption-based primary PM2.5 emission inventory to track primary PM2.5 emissions embodied in the supply chain and evaluate the extent to which local PM2.5 emissions are triggered by international trade. We further adopt consumption-based accounting and identify the global original source that produced the emissions. We find that anthropogenic PM2.5 emissions from industrial sectors accounted for 24 Tg globally in 2007; approximately 30% (7.2 Tg) of these emissions were embodied in export of products principally from Brazil, South Africa, India and China (3.8 Tg) to developed countries. Large differences (up to 10 times) in the embodied emissions intensity between net importers and exporters greatly increased total global PM2.5 emissions. Tele-connecting production and consumption activity provides valuable insights with respect to mitigating long-range transboundary air pollution and prompts concerted efforts aiming at more environmentally conscious globalization.

  3. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  4. Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.

  5. A binary genetic programing model for teleconnection identification between global sea surface temperature and local maximum monthly rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Nourani, Vahid; Hrnjica, Bahrudin; Molajou, Amir

    2017-12-01

    The effectiveness of genetic programming (GP) for solving regression problems in hydrology has been recognized in recent studies. However, its capability to solve classification problems has not been sufficiently explored so far. This study develops and applies a novel classification-forecasting model, namely Binary GP (BGP), for teleconnection studies between sea surface temperature (SST) variations and maximum monthly rainfall (MMR) events. The BGP integrates certain types of data pre-processing and post-processing methods with conventional GP engine to enhance its ability to solve both regression and classification problems simultaneously. The model was trained and tested using SST series of Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as potential predictors as well as classified MMR events at two locations in Iran as predictand. Skill of the model was measured in regard to different rainfall thresholds and SST lags and compared to that of the hybrid decision tree-association rule (DTAR) model available in the literature. The results indicated that the proposed model can identify potential teleconnection signals of surrounding seas beneficial to long-term forecasting of the occurrence of the classified MMR events.

  6. Incorporating teleconnection information into reservoir operating policies using Stochastic Dynamic Programming and a Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Sean; Galelli, Stefano; Wilcox, Karen

    2015-04-01

    Water reservoir systems are often affected by recurring large-scale ocean-atmospheric anomalies, known as teleconnections, that cause prolonged periods of climatological drought. Accurate forecasts of these events -- at lead times in the order of weeks and months -- may enable reservoir operators to take more effective release decisions to improve the performance of their systems. In practice this might mean a more reliable water supply system, a more profitable hydropower plant or a more sustainable environmental release policy. To this end, climate indices, which represent the oscillation of the ocean-atmospheric system, might be gainfully employed within reservoir operating models that adapt the reservoir operation as a function of the climate condition. This study develops a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) approach that can incorporate climate indices using a Hidden Markov Model. The model simulates the climatic regime as a hidden state following a Markov chain, with the state transitions driven by variation in climatic indices, such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Time series analysis of recorded streamflow data reveals the parameters of separate autoregressive models that describe the inflow to the reservoir under three representative climate states ("normal", "wet", "dry"). These models then define inflow transition probabilities for use in a classic SDP approach. The key advantage of the Hidden Markov Model is that it allows conditioning the operating policy not only on the reservoir storage and the antecedent inflow, but also on the climate condition, thus potentially allowing adaptability to a broader range of climate conditions. In practice, the reservoir operator would effect a water release tailored to a specific climate state based on available teleconnection data and forecasts. The approach is demonstrated on the operation of a realistic, stylised water reservoir with carry-over capacity in South-East Australia. Here teleconnections relating

  7. Patterns-Based IS Change Management in SMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makna, Janis; Kirikova, Marite

    The majority of information systems change management guidelines and standards are either too abstract or too bureaucratic to be easily applicable in small enterprises. This chapter proposes the approach, the method, and the prototype that are designed especially for information systems change management in small and medium enterprises. The approach is based on proven patterns of changes in the set of information systems elements. The set of elements was obtained by theoretical analysis of information systems and business process definitions and enterprise architectures. The patterns were evolved from a number of information systems theories and tested in 48 information systems change management projects. The prototype presents and helps to handle three basic change patterns, which help to anticipate the overall scope of changes related to particular elementary changes in an enterprise information system. The use of prototype requires just basic knowledge in organizational business process and information management.

  8. Revisiting Cholera-Climate Teleconnections in the Native Homeland: ENSO and other Extremes through the Regional Hydroclimatic Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Cholera is a global disease, with significantly large outbreaks occurring since the 1990s, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and recently in Haiti, in the Caribbean. Critical knowledge gaps remain in the understanding of the annual recurrence in endemic areas and the nature of epidemic outbreaks, especially those that follow extreme hydroclimatic events. Teleconnections with large-scale climate phenomena affecting regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera dynamics remain largely unexplained. For centuries, the Bengal delta region has been strongly influenced by the asymmetric availability of water in the rivers Ganges and the Brahmaputra. As these two major rivers are known to have strong contrasting affects on local cholera dynamics in the region, we argue that the role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), or other phenomena needs to be interpreted in the context of the seasonal role of individual rivers and subsequent impact on local environmental processes, not as a teleconnection having a remote and unified effect. We present a modified hypothesis that the influences of large-scale climate phenomena such as ENSO and IOD on Bengal cholera can be explicitly identified and incorporated through regional scale hydroclimatic drivers. Here, we provide an analytical review of the literature addressing cholera and climate linkages and present hypotheses, based on recent evidence, and quantification on the role of regional scale hydroclimatic drivers of cholera. We argue that the seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature, and resulting river discharge in the GBM basin region during ENSO and IOD events have a dominant combined effect on the endemic persistence and the epidemic vulnerability to cholera outbreaks in spring and fall seasons, respectively, that is stronger than the effect of localized hydrological and socio-economic sensitivities in Bangladesh. In addition, systematic identification of underlying seasonal

  9. Role of changed Indo-Pacific atmospheric circulation in the recent disconnect between the Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feba, F.; Ashok, K.; Ravichandran, M.

    2018-04-01

    We explore the decadal variability of teleconnection from tropical Pacific to the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using various observational and Reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2008. In confirmation with the earlier findings, we find that the interannual correlations between the various SST indices of ENSO and ISMR have continued to weaken. Interestingly, we find that even the robust lead correlations of the tropical pacific warm-water-volume with ISMR have weakened since late 1970s. Our analysis suggests that there is a relative intensification of the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere into the equatorial Indian Ocean associated with ISMR due to strenghtening of Mascarene High. Further, a shift in the surface wind circulation associated with monsoon over the northern pacific since late 1970s has resulted in a strenghtened cyclonic seasonal circulation south-east of Japan. These changed circulation features are a shift from the known circulation-signatures that efficiently teleconnect El Niño forcing to South Asia. These recent changes effectively weakened the teleconnection of the El Niño to ISMR.

  10. Multi-decadal modulations in the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw and the axial symmetry of the Arctic Oscillation signature, as revealed in the 20th century reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Shi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Seesaw relationship in intensity between the surface Aleutian and Icelandic Lows (AIS is a manifestation of atmospheric teleconnection that bridges the interannual variability over the Pacific and Atlantic in particular winter months. Analysis of the 20th Century Reanalysis data reveals that the strength and timing of AIS have undergone multi-decadal modulations in conjunction with those in structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO signature, extracted in the leading mode of interannual sea-level pressure (SLP variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Specifically, events of what may be called ‘pure AO’, in which SLP anomalies exhibit a high degree of axial symmetry in association with in-phase SLP variability between the midlatitude Atlantic and Pacific, tended to occur during multi-decadal periods in which the inter-basin teleconnection through AIS was active under the enhanced interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In contrast, the axial symmetry of the AO pattern was apparently reduced during a multi-decadal period in which the AIS teleconnection was inactive under the weakened interannual variability of the Aleutian Low. In this period, the leading mode of interannual SLP variability represented a meridional seesaw between the Atlantic and Arctic, which resembles SLP anomaly pattern associated with the cold-ocean/warm-land (COWL temperature pattern. These multi-decadal modulations in interannual AIS signal and the axial symmetry of the interannual AO pattern occurred under multi-decadal changes in the background state that also represented the polarity changes of the COWL-like anomaly pattern.

  11. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  12. Climate change and amphibian diversity patterns in Mexico

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia M.; Rodríguez, Pilar; Mora, Franz

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this article is to characterize at fine scale alpha and beta diversity patterns for Mexican amphibians and analyze how these patterns might change under a moderate climate-change scenario, highlighting the overall consequences for amphibian diversity at the country level. We used a geo...

  13. Decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, R; Wang, S-Y; Gillies, R R; Cho, C; Buckley, B M; Truong, L H

    2015-01-01

    Autumn precipitation over Central Vietnam is associated with an increase in the occurrence of tropical cyclones that lead to frequent flooding and pose a significant threat to lives and property. The present analyses reveal a pronounced decadal oscillation of autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam within the 8–11 year frequency band that is modulated by the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP–NP) teleconnection. The negative phase of the EP–NP pattern is associated with a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South China Sea (SCS) that induces low-level convergence, enhances convection, and increases precipitation over Central Vietnam and adjacent islands including Hainan (China) and the Philippines. This circulation feature around the SCS is embedded in a large-scale circulation associated with SST anomalies across the Pacific Ocean—i.e., cooling in the Eastern and Central tropical Pacific sandwiched by warming in the North and South Pacific as well as the Western Pacific Ocean. The positive phase of the EP–NP features opposite SST and circulation anomalies, with the result being reduced rainfall in Central Vietnam. This out-of-phase relationship and shared decadal spectral coherence between the EP–NP index and autumn precipitation in Central Vietnam might be useful for future climate predictions and flood management. (letter)

  14. El Nino in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, S. W.; Kug, J. S.; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, M. H.; Kirtman, B. P.; Jin, F. F.

    2009-01-01

    El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has b...

  15. Dietary patterns and changes in body weight in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Matthias B; Fung, Teresa T; Manson, Joann E; Willett, Walter C; Hu, Frank B

    2006-08-01

    Our objective was to examine the association between adherence to dietary patterns and weight change in women. Women (51,670, 26 to 46 years old) in the Nurses' Health Study II were followed from 1991 to 1999. Dietary intake and body weight were ascertained in 1991, 1995, and 1999. A Western pattern, characterized by high intakes of red and processed meats, refined grains, sweets and desserts, and potatoes, and a prudent pattern, characterized by high intakes of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, fish, poultry, and salad dressing, were identified with principal component analysis, and associations between patterns and change in body weight were estimated. Women who increased their Western pattern score had greater weight gain (multivariate adjusted means, 4.55 kg for 1991 to 1995 and 2.86 kg for 1995 to 1999) than women who decreased their Western pattern score (2.70 and 1.37 kg for the two time periods), adjusting for baseline lifestyle and dietary confounders and changes in confounders over time (p < 0.001 for both time periods). Furthermore, among women who increased their prudent pattern score, weight gain was smaller (multivariate-adjusted means, 1.93 kg for 1991 to 1995 and 0.66 kg for 1995 to 1999) than among women who decreased their prudent pattern score (4.83 and 3.35 kg for the two time periods) (p < 0.001). The largest weight gain between 1991 and 1995 and between 1995 and 1999 was observed among women who decreased their prudent pattern score while increasing their Western pattern score (multivariate adjusted means, 6.80 and 4.99 kg), whereas it was smallest for the opposite change in patterns (0.87 and -0.64 kg) (p < 0.001). Adoption of a Western dietary pattern is associated with larger weight gain in women, whereas a prudent dietary pattern may facilitate weight maintenance.

  16. A metric for quantifying El Niño pattern diversity with implications for ENSO-mean state interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmon, Danielle E.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.

    2018-04-01

    Recent research on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon increasingly reveals the highly complex and diverse nature of ENSO variability. A method of quantifying ENSO spatial pattern uniqueness and diversity is presented, which enables (1) formally distinguishing between unique and "canonical" El Niño events, (2) testing whether historical model simulations aptly capture ENSO diversity by comparing with instrumental observations, (3) projecting future ENSO diversity using future model simulations, (4) understanding the dynamics that give rise to ENSO diversity, and (5) analyzing the associated diversity of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Here we develop a framework for measuring El Niño spatial SST pattern uniqueness and diversity for a given set of El Niño events using two indices, the El Niño Pattern Uniqueness (EPU) index and El Niño Pattern Diversity (EPD) index, respectively. By applying this framework to instrumental records, we independently confirm a recent regime shift in El Niño pattern diversity with an increase in unique El Niño event sea surface temperature patterns. However, the same regime shift is not observed in historical CMIP5 model simulations; moreover, a comparison between historical and future CMIP5 model scenarios shows no robust change in future ENSO diversity. Finally, we support recent work that asserts a link between the background cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific and changes in ENSO diversity. This robust link between an eastern Pacific cooling mode and ENSO diversity is observed not only in instrumental reconstructions and reanalysis, but also in historical and future CMIP5 model simulations.

  17. The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

  18. Insights into changes in precipitation patterns in Brazil from oxygen isotope ratios on speleothems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, F.; Mathias, V.; Stephen, B. J.; Wang, X.; Cheng, H.; Werner, M.; Edwards, R. L.; Karmann, I.; Auler, A. S.

    2008-12-01

    Variations in tropical precipitation on millennial and orbital time scales can reflect a Hadley-cell-related anti- phasing between the Northern and Southern hemispheres due to the influence of insolation on the global summer monsoons. A new δ18O speleothem record from northeastern Brazil shows that insolation- driven changes in monsoon intensity are capable of producing a similar, zonally oriented anti-phasing within the same hemisphere. Comparison of our speleothem record with other precipitation-sensitive proxies from the central Andes and southeastern Brazil shows that precipitation in Northeastern Brazil has been out of phase with insolation and rainfall in the rest of tropical South America south of the equator since the Last Glacial Maximum. Northeastern Brazil experienced humid conditions when summer insolation was reduced and arid conditions when insolation was high. While previous interpretations of past climate change in NE South America have commonly invoked meridional displacements in ITCZ location as the main mechanism for changes in precipitation on millennial time scales, our results suggest that remote monsoon forcing is responsible for much of the observed precipitation changes on orbital time scales during the Holocene. These results demonstrate that orbitally driven out-of-phase relationships in precipitation are not limited to interhemispheric anti-phasing as demonstrated previously, but may well occur within the same hemisphere. Speleothem records also indicate contrasting climatic conditions around the Last Glacial Maximum in Brazil, characterized by marked dry and wet climates in the Nordeste and in southeastern Brazil, respectively. It is likely, however, that these regional differences primarily reflect more distant extratropical teleconnections from the Atlantic Ocean and high northern latitude changes during glacial conditions.

  19. East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae

    2016-04-01

    The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.

  20. Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

    2017-12-01

    The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

  1. Journal of Earth System Science | Indian Academy of Sciences

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is alsorequired for better representation of ENSO-induced changes ...

  2. Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

    2005-01-01

    The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

  3. Southern Ocean Convection and tropical telleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    We show that Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures in the latest generation of Earth System Models exhibit two major modes of variation, one driven by deep convection, the other by tropical variability. We perform a CMIP5 model intercomparison to understand why different climate models represent SO variability so differently in long, control simulations. We show that multiyear variability in Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can in turn influence oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropics on short (atmospheric) time-scales. We argue that the strength and pattern of SO-tropical teleconnections depends on the intensity of SO deep convection. Periodic convection in the SO is a feature of most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al., 2014). Models show a wide distribution in the spatial extent, periodicity and intensity of their SO convection, with some models convecting most of the time, and some showing very little convection. In a highly convective coupled model, we find that multidecadal variability in SO and global SSTs, as well as SO heat storage are driven by Weddell Sea convective variability, with convective decades relatively warm due to the heat released from the deep southern ocean and non-convective decades cold due to the subsurface storage of heat. Furthermore, pulses of SO convection drive SST and sea ice variations, influencing absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radiation, wind, cloud and precipitation patterns, with climatic implications for the low latitudes via fast atmospheric teleconnections. We suggest that these high-low latitude teleconnection mechanisms are relevant for understanding hiatus decades. Additionally, Southern Ocean deep convection varied significantly during past, natural climate changes such as during the last deglaciation. Weddell Sea open convection was recently weakened, likely as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing and the resulting surface freshening. Our study opens up the

  4. Free troposphere as a major source of CCN for the equatorial pacific boundary layer: long-range transport and teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Clarke

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Airborne aerosol measurements in the central equatorial Pacific during PASE (Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment revealed that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN activated in marine boundary layer (MBL clouds were strongly influenced by entrainment from the free troposphere (FT. About 65% entered at sizes effective as CCN in MBL clouds, while ~25% entered the MBL too small to activate but subsequently grew via gas to particle conversion. The remaining ~10% were inferred to be sea salt aerosol. FT aerosols at low carbon monoxide (CO mixing ratios ( The observed FT transport over thousands of kilometers indicates teleconnections between MBL CCN and cloud-scavenged sources of both natural and/or residual combustion origin. Nonetheless, in spite of its importance, this source of CCN number is not well represented in most current models and is generally not detectable by satellite because of the low aerosol scattering in such layers as a result of cloud scavenging. In addition, our measurements confirm nucleation in the MBL was not evident during PASE and argue against a localized linear relation in the MBL between dimethyl sulfide (DMS and CCN suggested by the CLAW hypothesis. However, when the FT is not impacted by long-range transport, sulfate aerosol derived from DMS pumped aloft in the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone can provide a source of CCN to the boundary layer via FT teleconnections involving more complex non-linear processes.

  5. Physiologically induced color-pattern changes in butterfly wings: mechanistic and evolutionary implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otaki, Joji M

    2008-07-01

    A mechanistic understanding of the butterfly wing color-pattern determination can be facilitated by experimental pattern changes. Here I review physiologically induced color-pattern changes in nymphalid butterflies and their mechanistic and evolutionary implications. A type of color-pattern change can be elicited by elemental changes in size and position throughout the wing, as suggested by the nymphalid groundplan. These changes of pattern elements are bi-directional and bi-sided dislocation toward or away from eyespot foci and in both proximal and distal sides of the foci. The peripheral elements are dislocated even in the eyespot-less compartments. Anterior spots are more severely modified, suggesting the existence of an anterior-posterior gradient. In one species, eyespots are transformed into white spots with remnant-like orange scales, and such patterns emerge even at the eyespot-less "imaginary" foci. A series of these color-pattern modifications probably reveal "snap-shots" of a dynamic morphogenic signal due to heterochronic uncoupling between the signaling and reception steps. The conventional gradient model can be revised to account for these observed color-pattern changes.

  6. Method of changing the control rod pattern in BWR type reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Kenji.

    1984-01-01

    Purpose: To enable to change the control rod pattern in a short time with ease, as well as improve the availability factor of the reactor. Method: Control rods other than those being inserted into the reactor core are inserted into the reactor core to reduce the power by the reduction in the reactor core flow rate. Then, the control rod to be operated is operated partially for the change of the control rod pattern to restrict the linear heat rating of the fuels to less than 0.1 kW/ft per one hour to change the control pattern to the aimed control rod pattern. Then, the reactor core flow rate is increased after the pattern exchange for the control rod to increase the power. Since only the control rod operation is performed without adjusting the reactor core flow rate upon change of the control rod pattern, procedures can be made simply in a short time to thereby improve the availability factor of the reactor. (Moriyama, K.)

  7. Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, M.

    2016-12-01

    Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and

  8. Meteorological Aspects of the Eastern North American Pattern with Impacts on Long Island Sound Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin A. Schulte

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The eastern North American sea level pressure dipole (ENA pattern is a recently identified teleconnection pattern that has been shown to influence mid-Atlantic United States (U.S streamflow variability. Because the pattern was only recently identified, its impacts on U.S. precipitation and estuaries on daily to seasonal timescales is unknown. Thus, this paper presents the first seasonal investigation of ENA relationships with global atmospheric fields, U.S. precipitation, and mid-Atlantic estuarine salinity. We show that the ENA pattern explains up to 25–36% of precipitation variability across Texas and the western U.S. We also show that, for the Northeast U.S, the ENA pattern explains up to 65% of precipitation variability, contrasting with previous work showing how well-known climate indices can only explain a modest amount of precipitation variability. The strongest ENA-precipitation relationships are in the spring and fall. The relationships between the ENA pattern and precipitation across remote regions reflect the upper-atmospheric Rossby wave pattern associated with the ENA pattern that varies seasonally. The El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO is related to the spring ENA pattern, indicating that extended outlooks of the ENA pattern may be possible. We also show that the ENA index is strongly correlated with salinity and vertical haline stratification across coastal portions of the mid-Atlantic Bight so that hypoxia forecasts based on the ENA index may be possible. Statistical connections between vertical salinity gradient and ENSO were identified at lags of up two years, further highlighting the potential for extended hypoxia outlooks. The strong connection between anomalies for precipitation and mid-Atlantic Bight salinity suggests that the ENA pattern may be useful at an interdisciplinary level for better understanding historical regional climate variability and future impacts of climate change on regional precipitation and the

  9. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  10. Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

  11. Is changing footstrike pattern beneficial to runners?

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Hamill; Allison H. Gruber

    2017-01-01

    Some researchers, running instructors, and coaches have suggested that the “optimal” footstrike pattern to improve performance and reduce running injuries is to land using a mid- or forefoot strike. Thus, it has been recommended that runners who use a rearfoot strike would benefit by changing their footstrike although there is little scientific evidence for suggesting such a change. The rearfoot strike is clearly more prevalent. The major reasons often given for changing to a mid- or forefoot...

  12. Changing Housing Patterns in Metropolitan Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grier, George; Grier, Eunice

    1975-01-01

    This testimony, before a public hearing of the New York City Commission on Human Rights in May 1974, summarizes extensive studies of changing minority residential patterns in metropolitan Washington and less extensive studies of other groups; the prospects for future desegregation and for using the growing economic potential of minority families…

  13. Wildfire patterns and landscape changes in Mediterranean oak woodlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiomar, N; Godinho, S; Fernandes, P M; Machado, R; Neves, N; Fernandes, J P

    2015-12-01

    Fire is infrequent in the oak woodlands of southern Portugal (montado) but large and severe fires affected these agro-forestry systems in 2003-2005. We hypothesised transition from forest to shrubland as a fire-driven process and investigated the links between fire incidence and montado change to other land cover types, particularly those related with the presence of pioneer communities (generically designed in this context as "transitions to early-successional communities"). We present a landscape-scale framework for assessing the probability of transition from montado to pioneer communities, considering three sets of explanatory variables: montado patterns in 1990 and prior changes from montado to early-successional communities (occurred between 1960 and 1990), fire patterns, and spatial factors. These three sets of factors captured 78.2% of the observed variability in the transitions from montado to pioneer vegetation. The contributions of fire patterns and spatial factors were high, respectively 60.6% and 43.4%, the influence of montado patterns and former changes in montado being lower (34.4%). The highest amount of explained variation in the occurrence of transitions from montado to early-successional communities was related to the pure effect of fire patterns (19.9%). Low spatial connectedness in montado landscape can increase vulnerability to changes, namely to pioneer vegetation, but the observed changes were mostly explained by fire characteristics and spatial factors. Among all metrics used to characterize fire patterns and extent, effective mesh size provided the best modelling results. Transitions from montado to pioneer communities are more likely in the presence of high values of the effective mesh size of total burned area. This cross-boundary metric is an indicator of the influence of large fires in the distribution of the identified transitions and, therefore, we conclude that the occurrence of large fires in montado increases its probability of

  14. Is changing footstrike pattern beneficial to runners?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Hamill

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Some researchers, running instructors, and coaches have suggested that the “optimal” footstrike pattern to improve performance and reduce running injuries is to land using a mid- or forefoot strike. Thus, it has been recommended that runners who use a rearfoot strike would benefit by changing their footstrike although there is little scientific evidence for suggesting such a change. The rearfoot strike is clearly more prevalent. The major reasons often given for changing to a mid- or forefoot strike are (1 it is more economical; (2 there is a reduction in the impact peak and loading rate of the vertical component of the ground reaction force; and (3 there is a reduction in the risk of a running-related injuries. In this paper, we critique these 3 suggestions and provide alternate explanations that may provide contradictory evidence for altering one's footstrike pattern. We have concluded, based on examining the research literature, that changing to a mid- or forefoot strike does not improve running economy, does not eliminate an impact at the foot-ground contact, and does not reduce the risk of running-related injuries.

  15. LAND USE PATTERN, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ITS IMPLICATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-01-30

    Jan 30, 2012 ... impacted seriously on Ethiopia's rich biodiversity, crop production ... change in the rural areas of Ethiopia, this paper therefore reviewed ... Key words: Climate change, Land use pattern, and Food security. .... releasing greenhouse gases, and the major driver ... Agricultural systems worldwide over the last.

  16. [Wetland landscape pattern change based on GIS and RS: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Fan-Ting; Xi, Min; Li, Yue; Kong, Fan-Long; Chen, Wan

    2013-04-01

    Wetland is an ecological landscape with most biodiversity in nature, which has unique ecological structure and function, and contains abundant natural resources to provide material guarantee for human's living and development. Wetland landscape pattern is the comprehensive result of various ecological processes, and has become a hot issue in wetland ecological study. At present, the combination of geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies is an important way to study the wetland landscape pattern change. This paper reviewed the research progress in the wetland landscape change based on GIS and RS from the aspects of the research methods of wetland landscape pattern, index of wetland landscape pattern, and driving forces of wetland landscape pattern evolution, and discussed the applications of the combination of GIS and RS in monitoring the wetland landscape pattern change, the index selection of wetland landscape pattern, and the driving mechanisms of the combined action of human and nature. Some deficiencies in the current studies were put forward, and the directions of the future-studies were prospected.

  17. Integrated Remote Sensing and Wavelet Analyses for Screening Short-term Teleconnection Patterns in Northeast America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on vegetation dynamics and precipitation patterns throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactio...

  18. Changes to Watershed Hydrology due to Changing Snowmelt Patterns, Michigan, US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, C.; Kendall, A. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2017-12-01

    With increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns associated with global climate change, the future of hydrologic resources related to snowmelt is less certain than ever. Most existing snowmelt hydrology research focuses on mountainous regions such as the western United States, where snowpack is a primary reservoir of available freshwater. Less research has been done on snowmelt hydrology in non-mountainous, temperate middle to upper latitude regions such as the Midwestern US, where snowmelt is still an important contributor to water budgets (and critically summer water supplies). This study examines the changes to watershed hydrology due to changing snowmelt patterns in Michigan, which has a tension line between seasonally-persistent snowpacks in the north, and episodic snowpacks in the south. This transition varies in space and time, and is likely moving northward as a consequence of climate change. Changes to snow and winter weather were statistically determined from output of the NOAA's Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) model along with historical weather data from the Global Historical Climatology Network. Stream data from the USGS, combined with in-house monitoring data from groundwater and soil moisture networks provide insight into the hydrologic changes. Snowmelt in years with warmer winter temperatures tend to end earlier in the year, resulting in earlier peak stream flows. These changes become more noticeable in the northern regions of the state, where snowfall amounts can be amongst the largest in the country. This study also examines the changing spatial transition zone between regions with snow lasting throughout the season and regions with a more episodic snow presence. In an area with some of the largest freshwater resources in the world, significant changes to streamflow and groundwater recharge could impact already stressed ecosystems and local water supplies.

  19. Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gushchina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000 allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.

  20. Patterns of changes in wheelchair exercise capacity after spinal cord injury

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Koppenhagen, C.F.; de Groot, S.; Post, M.W.; Hoekstra, T.; van Asbeck, F.W.; Bongers, H.; Lindeman, E.; van der Woude, L.H.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: (1) To identify different patterns of changes in wheelchair exercise capacity in the period between the start of active spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation and 5 years after discharge; (2) to examine the pattern determinants of the change in wheelchair exercise capacity. Design:

  1. Patterns of Changes in Wheelchair Exercise Capacity After Spinal Cord Injury

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Koppenhagen, Casper F.; de Groot, Sonja; Post, Marcel W.; Hoekstra, Trynke; van Asbeck, Floris W.; Bongers, Helma; Lindeman, Eline; van der Woude, Luc H.

    Objectives: (1) To identify different patterns of changes in wheelchair exercise capacity in the period between the start of active spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation and 5 years after discharge; (2) to examine the pattern determinants of the change in wheelchair exercise capacity. Design:

  2. The Mediterranean Oscillation Teleconnection Index: Station-Based versus Principal Component Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Criado-Aldeanueva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Two different paradigms of the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO teleconnection index have been compared in this work: station-based definitions obtained by the difference of some climate variable between two selected points in the eastern and western basins (i.e., Algiers and Cairo, Gibraltar and Israel, Marseille and Jerusalem, or south France and Levantine basin and the principal component (PC approach in which the index is obtained as the time series of the first mode of normalised sea level pressure anomalies across the extended Mediterranean region. Interannual to interdecadal precipitation (P, evaporation (E, E-P, and net heat flux have been correlated with the different MO indices to compare their relative importance in the long-term variability of heat and freshwater budgets over the Mediterranean Sea. On an annual basis, the PC paradigm is the most effective tool to assess the effect of the large-scale atmospheric forcing in the Mediterranean Sea because the station-based indices exhibit a very poor correlation with all climatic variables and only influence a reduced fraction of the basin. In winter, the station-based indices highly improve their ability to represent the atmospheric forcing and results are fairly independent of the paradigm used.

  3. Changing and Differentiated Urban Landscape in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong; Wang, Shaojian

    2016-03-01

    Urban landscape spatiotemporal change patterns and their driving mechanisms in China are poorly understood at the national level. Here we used remote sensing data, landscape metrics, and a spatial econometric model to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban landscape change and investigate its driving forces in China between 1990 and 2005. The results showed that the urban landscape pattern has experienced drastic changes over the past 15 years. Total urban area has expanded approximately 1.61 times, with a 2.98% annual urban-growth rate. Compared to previous single-city studies, although urban areas are expanding rapidly, the overall fragmentation of the urban landscape is decreasing and is more irregular and complex at the national level. We also found a stair-stepping, urban-landscape changing pattern among eastern, central, and western counties. In addition, administrative level, urban size, and hierarchy have effects on the urban landscape pattern. We also found that a combination of landscape metrics can be used to supplement our understanding of the pattern of urbanization. The changes in these metrics are correlated with geographical indicators, socioeconomic factors, infrastructure variables, administrative level factors, policy factors, and historical factors. Our results indicate that the top priority should be strengthening the management of urban planning. A compact and congregate urban landscape may be a good choice of pattern for urban development in China.

  4. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  5. Adipose tissue fatty acid patterns and changes in anthropometry: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Catherine Dahm

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Diets rich in n-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA, but low in n-6 LC-PUFA and 18:1 trans-fatty acids (TFA, may lower the risk of overweight and obesity. These fatty acids have often been investigated individually. We explored associations between global patterns in adipose tissue fatty acids and changes in anthropometry. METHODS: 34 fatty acid species from adipose tissue biopsies were determined in a random sample of 1100 men and women from a Danish cohort study. We used sex-specific principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to investigate the associations of adipose tissue fatty acid patterns with changes in weight, waist circumference (WC, and WC controlled for changes in body mass index (WC(BMI, adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: 7 principal components were extracted for each sex, explaining 77.6% and 78.3% of fatty acid variation in men and women, respectively. Fatty acid patterns with high levels of TFA tended to be positively associated with changes in weight and WC for both sexes. Patterns with high levels of n-6 LC-PUFA tended to be negatively associated with changes in weight and WC in men, and positively associated in women. Associations with patterns with high levels of n-3 LC-PUFA were dependent on the context of the rest of the fatty acid pattern. CONCLUSIONS: Adipose tissue fatty acid patterns with high levels of TFA may be linked to weight gain, but patterns with high n-3 LC-PUFA did not appear to be linked to weight loss. Associations depended on characteristics of the rest of the pattern.

  6. Continuities and changes in infant attachment patterns across two generations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raby, K Lee; Steele, Ryan D; Carlson, Elizabeth A; Sroufe, L Alan

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the intergenerational continuities and changes in infant attachment patterns within a higher-risk longitudinal sample of 55 female participants born into poverty. Infant attachment was assessed using the Strange Situation when participants were 12 and 18 months as well as several decades later with participants' children. Paralleling earlier findings from this sample on the stability of attachment patterns from infancy to young adulthood, results provided evidence for intergenerational continuities in attachment disorganization but not security. Children of adults with histories of infant attachment disorganization were at an increased risk of forming disorganized attachments. Although changes in infant attachment patterns across the two generations were not correlated with individuals' caregiving experiences or interpersonal stresses and supports during childhood and adolescence, higher quality social support during adulthood was associated with intergenerational changes from insecure to secure infant-caregiver attachment relationships.

  7. Has climate change disrupted stratification patterns in Lake Victoria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Has climate change disrupted stratification patterns in Lake Victoria, East Africa? ... Climate change may threaten the fisheries of Lake Victoria by increasing density differentials in the water column, thereby strengthening stratification and increasing the ... Keywords: deoxygenation, fisheries, global warming, thermocline

  8. Teleconnections in Groundwater of U.S. Principal Aquifers to the Non-Stationarity of ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurdak, J. J.; Kuss, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater will play an important role in society's adaptation to climate variability and change. Therefore, it is particularly important to detect and quantify teleconnections in groundwater with non-stationarity in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales because of the tangible and near-term implications for water-resource management. Interannual to multidecadal climate variability partially controls precipitation distribution in space and time, drought frequency and severity, snowmelt runoff, streamflow, and other hydrologic processes that profoundly affects surface-water resources. However, the effects of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on recharge rates and mechanisms and other subsurface hydrologic processes that affect groundwater quantity and quality are largely unknown in most aquifers of the United States (U.S.) and other regions of the world. Here we use singular spectrum analysis (SSA), wavelet coherence analysis, and lag correlation to quantify the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 year cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 year cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 year cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 year cycle) on precipitation, groundwater levels, simulated groundwater pumping, and climate varying recharge rates across the regionally extensive Central Valley (52,000 km2), Basin and Range (700,000 km2), High Plains (450,000 km2), and North Atlantic Coastal Plain (130,000 km2) Principal Aquifers (PAs) of the U.S. The results indicate that precipitation, recharge, and groundwater levels are partially affected by interannual to multidecadal climate variability and groundwater-level fluctuations are not solely a function of temporal patterns in pumping. ENSO and PDO have a greater control than NAO and AMO on variability in precipitation and groundwater levels across the U.S., particularly in the western and central PAs. At many locations, recharge

  9. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  10. The combined influence of the main European circulation patterns on carbon uptake by ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo

    2014-05-01

    Understanding how natural climate variability affects carbon uptake by land and ocean pools is particularly relevant to better characterize human impact on the carbon cycle. Recently, we have contributed to assess the major role played by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon uptake by land ecosystems and significantly influencing global CO2 air-borne fraction [1]. Despite the prominent role played by ENSO, other important teleconnections on the hemispheric scale have deserved less attention. On the European scale, the main mode of variability is the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls storm tracks position and drives changes in temperature and precipitation over the whole region, affecting vegetation dynamics [2]. Besides NAO, a few additional large scale circulation patterns the Scandinavian (SC) and East-Atlantic (EA) Patterns, are also known to influence significantly the European climate [3]. Different combinations of these teleconnection polarities have been recently shown to modulate the overall role of the NAO impact location and strength, thus affecting winter temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe [4]. This work aims to answer the following questions: (i) how do NAO, EA and SC affect vegetation carbon uptake IAV? (ii) do the interactions between these three modes have a significant impact on land CO2 IAV? (iii) what is the contribution of the different physical variables to ecosystems' response to these modes? (iv) how well do the state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 represent these climate variability modes and the corresponding carbon fluxes? We first analyze observational data to assess the relationships between the different combinations of NAO, SC and EA polarities and IAV of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP, respectively), as well as the most relevant driving factors of ecosystem's response to those variability patterns. Although the winter state

  11. Pandimensional field pattern changes in healers and healees: experiencing therapeutic touch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Dorothy Woods; Broida, John P

    2007-12-01

    Rogers's Science of Unitary Human Beings framed this study of pandimensional pattern changes in healers and healees paired for an 8-week series of Therapeutic Touch (TT) sessions. Comparison of healee patterns before and after 141 TT sessions supported the hypotheses that healees would manifest decreased pulse and blood pressure, and reduced pain and stress (p < .05). Duration of TT sessions was not preset but determined by healers according to energy cues. TT time was not related to pattern changes, consistent with the clinical practice of TT and the atemporal nature of Rogers's conceptual framework. Healers and healees showed parallel changes after the TT series. Participants manifested greater spirituality (p <.05). Although increases in three of the four dimensions of power were significant (p <.05), changes in power measured as a whole were not. Contrary to expectations, manifestations of diversity were decreased in healers and healees.

  12. Cold Episodes, Their Precursors and Teleconnections in the Central Peruvian Andes (1958-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulca, J. C.; Vuille, M. F.; Trasmonte, G.; Silva, Y.; Takahashi, K.

    2014-12-01

    The Mantaro valley (MV) is located in the central Peruvian Andes. Occasionally, cold episodes are observed during the austral summer (January-March), which strongly damage crops. However, little is known about the causes and impacts of such cold episodes in the MV. The main goal of this study is thus to characterize cold episodes in the MV and assess their large-scale circulation and teleconnections over South America (SA) during austral summer. To identify cold events in the MV daily minimum temperature for the period 1958-2009 from Huayao station, located within the MV was used. We defined a cold episode as the period when daily minimum temperature drops below the 10-percentile for at least one day. Several gridded reanalysis and satellite products were used to characterize the large-scale circulation, cloud cover and rainfall over SA associated with these events for same period. Cold episodes in the MV are associated with positive OLR anomalies, which extend over much of the central Andes, indicating reduced convective cloud cover during these extremes, but also affirm the large-scale nature of these events. At the same time, northeastern Brazil (NEB) registers negative OLR anomalies, strong convective activity and enhanced cloud cover because displacement of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) toward the northeast of its climatologic position. Further, it is associated with a weakening of the Bolivian High - Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system at upper levels, but also influenced by a low-level migratory high-pressure center develops at 30°S, 50°W; propagating from mid- to low latitudes as part of an extratropical Rossby wave train. In conclusion, cold episodes in the MV appear to be caused by radiative cooling associated with reduced cloudiness, rather than cold air advection. The reduced cloud cover in turn results from a robust large-scale pattern of westerly wind anomalies over central Peruvian Andes, inhibiting moisture influx, convective activity and

  13. Changing Throwing Pattern: Instruction and Control Parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southard, Dan

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of instruction and scaling up a control parameter (velocity of throw) on changes in throwing pattern. Sixty adult female throwers (ages 20-26 years) were randomly placed into one of four practice conditions: (a) scale up on velocity with no instruction, (b) maintain constant velocity with no…

  14. Climate-informed flood frequency analysis based on Bayesian theory and teleconnection for the Three Gorges Dam (TGD)

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, Q.; Zhang, X.; Lall, U.; Sang, Y. F.; Xie, P.

    2017-12-01

    With the current global climate changing and human activities intensifying, the uncertainties and danger of floods increased significantly. However, the current flood frequency analysis is still based on the stationary assumption. This assumption not only limits the benefits of the water conservancy projects, but also brings hazard because it ignores the risk of flooding under climate change. In this paper, we relax the stationary hypothesis in the flood frequency analysis model based on the teleconnection and use the intrinsic relation of flood elements to improve the annual flood frequency results by Bayesian inference approaches. Daily discharges of the the Three Gorges Dam(TGD) in 1953-2013 years are used as an example. Firstly, according to the linear correlation between the climate indices and the distribution parameters, the prior distributions of peak and volume are established with the selected large scale climate predictors. After that, by using the copula function and predictands, the conditional probability function of peak and volume is obtained. Then, the Bayesian theory links the prior distributions and conditional distributions and get the posterior distributions. We compare the difference under different prior distributions and find the optimal flood frequency distribution model. Finally, we discuss the impact of dynamic flood frequency analysis on the plan and management of hydraulic engineering. The results show that compared with the prior probability, the posterior probability considering the correlation of the flood elements is more accurate and the uncertainty is smaller. And the dynamic flood frequency model has a great impact on the management of the existing hydraulic engineering, which can improve the engineering operation benefit and reducing its flood risk, but it nearly didn't influence the plan of hydraulic engineering. The study of this paper is helpful to the dynamic flood risk management of TGD, and provide reference for the

  15. Adipose tissue Fatty Acid patterns and changes in antrhropometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahm, Christina Catherine; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Jakobsen, Marianne Uhre

    2011-01-01

    Introduction Diets rich in n-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA), but low in n-6 LC-PUFA and 18:1 trans-fatty acids (TFA), may lower the risk of overweight and obesity. These fatty acids have often been investigated individually. We explored associations between global patterns...... in adipose tissue fatty acids and changes in anthropometry. Methods 34 fatty acid species from adipose tissue biopsies were determined in a random sample of 1100 men and women from a Danish cohort study. We used sex-specific principal component analysis and multiple linear regression to investigate...... the associations of adipose tissue fatty acid patterns with changes in weight, waist circumference (WC), and WC controlled for changes in body mass index (WCBMI), adjusting for confounders. Results 7 principal components were extracted for each sex, explaining 77.6% and 78.3% of fatty acid variation in men...

  16. Dynamic Changes of Landscape Pattern and Vulnerability Analysis in Qingyi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziwei; Xie, Chaoying; He, Xiaohui; Guo, Hengliang; Wang, Li

    2017-11-01

    Environmental vulnerability research is one of the core areas of global environmental change research. Over the past 10 years, ecologically fragile zones or transition zones had been significantly affected by environmental degradation and climate change and human activities. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of landscape pattern and landscape vulnerability degree in Qingyi River Basin by calculating the landscape sensitivity index and landscape restoration degree index based on Landsat images of 2005, 2010 and 2015. The results showed that: (1) The top conversion area was farmland, woodland and grassland area decreased, city land and rural residential land increased fastest. (2) The fragility of the landscape pattern along the Qingyi River gradually increased between 2005 and 2015, the downstream area was influenced by the influence of human activities. (3) Landscape pattern changes and fragility are mainly affected by urbanization. These findings are helpful for understanding the evolution of landscape pattern as well as urban ecology, which both have significant implications for urban planning and minimize the potential environmental impacts of urbanization in Qingyi River Basin.

  17. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Tibetan Lakes: Patterns and Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dehua Mao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High-altitude inland-drainage lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP, the earth’s third pole, are very sensitive to climate change. Tibetan lakes are important natural resources with important religious, historical, and cultural significance. However, the spatial patterns and processes controlling the impacts of climate and associated changes on Tibetan lakes are largely unknown. This study used long time series and multi-temporal Landsat imagery to map the patterns of Tibetan lakes and glaciers in 1977, 1990, 2000, and 2014, and further to assess the spatiotemporal changes of lakes and glaciers in 17 TP watersheds between 1977 and 2014. Spatially variable changes in lake and glacier area as well as climatic factors were analyzed. We identified four modes of lake change in response to climate and associated changes. Lake expansion was predominantly attributed to increased precipitation and glacier melting, whereas lake shrinkage was a main consequence of a drier climate or permafrost degradation. These findings shed new light on the impacts of recent environmental changes on Tibetan lakes. They suggest that protecting these high-altitude lakes in the face of further environmental change will require spatially variable policies and management measures.

  19. [Changes of regional environment quality pattern in China since 1986-2008].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Wei-Hua; Sun, Ming-Kun; Lu, Yu-Qi

    2011-03-01

    For further study of regional differences and the pattern of changes in environmental quality in China since 1986-2008, we perform the principal component analysis, standard deviation, Mann-Kendall and cluster analysis on 18 environmental quality indexes in 28 provinces of China in this paper. Those indexes refer to pollutant emission, pollutants treatment capacities and pollutant emission of per unit land area, etc. The paper indicates that regional environmental quality in China has been increased slightly during this period. It can be divided into four stages: 1986-2000, 2000-2001, 2001-2005 and 2005-2008. The overall patterns of regional environmental quality is the West is higher than the East in general, while the environmental quality of the eastern part have been changed somewhat. For more details, the regional environmental quality in China in 1986 is composed of two parts, the eastern part and the western part, while in 2000 and 2001 the eastern part, the middle part and the western part appears as the overall pattern. For the year of 2005, the regional environmental quality in the western is higher than that of the eastern; meanwhile, the eastern can be divided into the northern part, the middle part and the southern part, and the environmental quality in northern part is better than that of the southern part, southern part is better than that of the middle part. This pattern hardly changed in 2008, except that the area with poor environment quality region had expanded. Pollutant emission of per unit land area played as a main factor; yet both the pollutant emission and the reuse of pollutants impacted the pattern specifically. In addition, the national macro policies, the regional policies, the regional economic and the industrial structure can be primary reason for the change of regional environmental quality pattern in China as well.

  20. Determining intervention thresholds that change output behavior patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walrave, B.

    2016-01-01

    This paper details a semi-automated method that can calculate intervention thresholds—that is, the minimum required intervention sizes, over a given time frame, that result in a desired change in a system’s output behavior pattern. The method exploits key differences in atomic behavior profiles that

  1. Patterns in household-level engagement with climate change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohensky, Erin L.; Smajgl, Alex; Brewer, Tom

    2013-04-01

    Understanding how individuals engage with climate change is critical for developing successful climate adaptation policies. Indonesia ranks among the world's top CO2 emitters, affirming its relevance to the global climate change policy arena, yet the dynamics of climate change engagement in Indonesia may differ from developed countries from which much research on this issue derives. We surveyed 6,310 households in two Indonesian regions to investigate patterns in four steps of engagement: observation, risk perception, reactive action (in response to present climate change) and proactive action (in anticipation of future climate change). We show that 89.5% of households exhibited a pattern whereby taking each of these steps in sequence implied taking all steps that precede it. Exceptions occurred in urban areas, where households were more likely to take action without having observed climate change or perceiving risks. In rural areas, households were more likely to observe climate change without taking action. These variations suggest a potentially nonlinear relationship between steps of engagement. We distinguish three types of household requiring adaptation support, and stress that Indonesian climate policy should shift emphasis from raising awareness to identifying broader institutional structures and processes to facilitate household engagement.

  2. Patterns of changes in wheelchair exercise capacity after spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Koppenhagen, Casper F; de Groot, Sonja; Post, Marcel W; Hoekstra, Trynke; van Asbeck, Floris W; Bongers, Helma; Lindeman, Eline; van der Woude, Luc H

    2013-07-01

    (1) To identify different patterns of changes in wheelchair exercise capacity in the period between the start of active spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation and 5 years after discharge; (2) to examine the pattern determinants of the change in wheelchair exercise capacity. Prospective cohort study. Measurements were recorded at the start of active inpatient rehabilitation, 3 months after the start, at discharge of inpatient rehabilitation, 1 year after discharge, and 5 years after discharge. Eight rehabilitation centers. Persons with SCI (N=130; age range, 18-65y), who were wheelchair-dependent, at least for long distances. Not applicable. Wheelchair exercise capacity: peak power output (W). We found 4 different patterns of the change of peak power output (mean ± SD): (1) a pattern with high and progressive scores (33% of total study group): high progressive scores (start of rehabilitation: 49±15W to 5 years after discharge: 77±17.2W); (2) a pattern of improvement during inpatient rehabilitation and deterioration after inpatient rehabilitation (12%): progressive scores during inpatient rehabilitation with deteriorating scores after discharge (start of rehabilitation: 29±8.7W, to discharge: 60±8.4W, to 5 years after discharge: 39±13.1W); (3) a pattern with low and only slightly progressive scores (52%): low progressive scores (start of rehabilitation: 20±10.1W to 5 years after discharge: 31±15.9W); and (4) a pattern with low scores during inpatient rehabilitation and a sharp rise after discharge (3%): low inpatient scores with strong progressive scores after discharge (start of rehabilitation: 29±15.5W to 5 years after discharge: 82±10.6W). A logistic regression of factors that may distinguish between patterns with high and progressive scores and patterns with low and only slightly progressive scores revealed that older age, being a woman, having a tetraplegic lesion, and low functional status were associated with patterns with low and only slightly

  3. Prospective Associations between Dietary Patterns and Body Composition Changes in European Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernández-Alvira, Juan Miguel; Bammann, Karin; Eiben, Gabriele

    2017-01-01

    pattern or changing from a processed pattern to a sweet pattern presented the most unfavourable changes in fat mass and abdominal fat. These findings support the need to promote overall healthy dietary habits in obesity prevention and health promotion programmes targeting children....... frequencies of consumption of forty-three food items and regression models were fitted to assess the association between dietary patterns and body composition changes. Setting: Primary schools and pre-schools of selected regions in Italy, Estonia, Cyprus, Belgium, Sweden, Hungary, Germany and Spain. Subjects...... consistently allocated to the ‘processed’ cluster presented increased BMI (β=0·050; 95 % CI 0·006, 0·093), increased waist circumference (β=0·071; 95 % CI 0·001, 0·141) and increased fat mass gain (β=0·052; 95 % CI 0·014, 0·090) over time v. children allocated to the ‘healthy’ cluster. Being in the ‘processed...

  4. Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

    2018-02-01

    International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Daily Pacific North American Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) is one of the leading teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as a Rotated...

  6. Investigating change of properties in gallium ion irradiation patterned single-layer graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Quan, E-mail: wangq@mail.ujs.edu.cn [School of Mechanical Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013 (China); Key Laboratory of Nanodevices and Applications, Suzhou Institute of Nano-Tech and Nano-Bionics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Dong, Jinyao; Bai, Bing [School of Mechanical Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013 (China); Xie, Guoxin [State Key Laboratory of Tribology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2016-10-14

    Besides its excellent physical properties, graphene promises to play a significant role in electronics with superior properties, which requires patterning of graphene for device integration. Here, we presented the changes in properties of single-layer graphene before and after patterning using gallium ion beam. Combined with Raman spectra of graphene, the scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) image confirmed that a metal–insulator transition occurred after large doses of gallium ion irradiation. The changes in work function and Raman spectra of graphene indicated that the defect density increased as increasing the dose and a structural transition occurred during gallium ion irradiation. The patterning width of graphene presented an increasing trend due to the scattering influence of the impurities and the substrate. - Highlights: • The scanning capacitance microscopy image confirmed a metal–insulator transition occurred after large doses of gallium ion irradiation. • The changes indicated the defect density increased as increasing the dose and a structural transition occurred during gallium ion irradiation. • The patterning width of graphene presented a increasing trend due to the scattering influence of the impurities and the substrate.

  7. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  8. Fibrocystic change of breast : relation with parenchymal pattern on mammogram and fibroadenoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ki Yeol; Cha, In Ho; Kang, Eun Young; Kim, Jung Hyuk

    1996-01-01

    To determine the relationship between fibrocystic change and parenchymal pattern and fibroadenoma on mammogram. Mammograms of 135 patients with histologically- diagnosed fibrocystic disease after excisional biopsy were retrospectively analyzed and correlated with pathologic specimens. Classification of the parenchymal pattern was based on Wolfe's method. On mammogram, we observed abnormality in 88 out of the 135 cases;these latter consisted of 70 cases of DY, 30 of P2, 20 of P1, and 15 of Nl, following Wolfe's parenchymal patterns. Among the 88 abnormal cases we obseved 37 cases of mass with clear boundaries, five cases of mass with unclear boundaries, 22 with clustered microcalcifications, six with macrocalcifications and 18 with asymmetric dense breast. Histologic examination revealed a varying composition of stromal fibrosis, epithelial hyperplasia,cyst formation, apocrine metaplasia, etc. Histologically fibroadenomatoid change in 18 cases was appeared as a radiopaque mass on mammogram, especially in those cases where the change was well-defined, which were all except three. Fibrocystic disease was prevalent in Wolfe's P2 and DY patterns(about 80%). About 40% of fibrocystic change appearing as a well defined mass on mammogram showed fibroadenomatoid chage histologically and was difficult to differentiate from fibroadenoma. Fibrocystic disease should therefore be included in the differential diagnosis of a mass which on mammogram is well-defined

  9. [Changes in the food and beverage consumption pattern in Argentina, 1996-2013].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, María Elisa; Rovirosa, Alicia; Carmuega, Esteban

    2016-01-01

    The dietary pattern of the population has shifted in recent years as a result of cultural changes and modifications in food accessibility. In order to describe the changes in food and beverage consumption patterns in the last two decades in Argentina, the National Survey of Household Expenditure [Encuesta Nacional de Gastos de los Hogares] was analyzed for the periods 1996-1997, 2004-2005 and 2012-2013. The average apparent consumption of food and beverages in grams or milliliters of net weight per adult equivalent was estimated for each period. The variation in the amount of food and beverages available for consumption between 1996 and 2013 shows that the structure of the dietary pattern has changed, appearing to indicate shifts in the ways of buying, preparing and consuming foods related to greater convenience and accessibility and less time spent on food preparation.

  10. [Changes in the patterns of food consumption in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagle, M A

    1988-09-01

    Food consumption patterns have suffered important although not generalized changes in recent years. A series of factors favor these changes, such as variations in family income, rural-urban migration, increase of tertiary activities related to foods, and exposure to commercial propaganda. All of these factors, when compared among them, do not have the same impact or validity. Thus, while the first two induce changes in the food pattern, the last two guide the consumer to certain food products. Modernization of the food pattern in Latin America and the Caribbean has been inspired by the USA food pattern of the previous decade, which from the nutritional and economic points of view, does not prove to be desirable. The average USA diet is rich in both saturated and mono- and polyunsaturated fats, as well as in refined sugar and all types of additives. It is poor in carbohydrates, particular in those of the complex type; most of its protein is of animal origin. It may also be rich in salt and poor in fiber, as it is made up by well-diversified industrialized foods in their presentation, manufactured and marketed by a highly industrialized production-distribution capitalized structure. The adopted model is not in correspondence with out countries' natural resources; it produces a displacement of the consumption patterns based on autochthonous and/or traditional components, and induces an increase in food imports. Since Latin American countries are of poor economic resources, and the model renders expensive products, these are absorbed by the socioeconomic group able to pay for them and/or--intermittently--as a high-cost product by calorie delivered, by the poor groups who are most in need, a situation which would imply serious damage on the quality and quantity of their diet. Changes in food habits and in food consumption patterns are related to a certain socio-demographic process which cannot be stopped. Consequently, this process should be carefully analyzed and

  11. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Kucharski, Fred; Azharuddin, Syed

    2017-01-01

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  12. Study of the global and regional climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude using SPEEDY AGCM

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-03-09

    ENSO is considered as a strong atmospheric teleconnection that has pronounced global and regional circulation effects. It modifies global monsoon system, especially, Asian and African monsoons. Previous studies suggest that both the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events have increased over the last few decades resulting in a need to study climatic impacts of ENSO magnitude both at global and regional scales. Hence, to better understand the impact of ENSO amplitude over the tropical and extratropical regions focussing on the Asian and African domains, ENSO sensitivity experiments are conducted using ICTPAGCM (‘SPEEDY’). It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific SST forcing will be enough to produce ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns; therefore, the model is forced using NINO3.4 regressed SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific only. SPEEDY reproduces the impact of ENSO over the Pacific, North and South America and African regions very well. However, it underestimates ENSO teleconnection patterns and associated changes over South Asia, particularly in the Indian region, which suggests that the tropical Pacific SST forcing is not sufficient to represent ENSO-induced teleconnection patterns over South Asia. Therefore, SST forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean together with air–sea coupling is also required for better representation of ENSO-induced changes in these regions. Moreover, results obtained by this pacemaker experiment show that ENSO impacts are relatively stronger over the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) compared to extratropics and high latitude regions. The positive phase of ENSO causes weakening in rainfall activity over African tropical rain belt, parts of South and Southeast Asia, whereas, the La Niña phase produces more rain over these regions during the summer season. Model results further reveal that ENSO magnitude has a stronger impact over African Sahel and South Asia, especially over the Indian region because of its significant

  13. The role of the intra-daily SST variability in the Indian monsoon variability and monsoon-ENSO-IOD relationships in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Terray, Pascal; Kamala, Kakitha; Masson, Sebastien; Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN/IPSL, CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Luo, Jing-Jia; Yamagata, Toshio [RIGC, Yokohama (Japan)

    2012-08-15

    The impact of diurnal SST coupling and vertical oceanic resolution on the simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and its relationships with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events are studied through the analysis of four integrations of a high resolution Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM), but with different configurations. The only differences between the four integrations are the frequency of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere for the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) parameter (2 vs. 24 h coupling) and/or the vertical oceanic resolution (31 vs. 301 levels) in the CGCM. Although the summer mean tropical climate is reasonably well captured with all the configurations of the CGCM and is not significantly modified by changing the frequency of SST coupling from once to twelve per day, the ISM-ENSO teleconnections are rather poorly simulated in the two simulations in which SST is exchanged only once per day, independently of the vertical oceanic resolution used in the CGCM. Surprisingly, when 2 h SST coupling is implemented in the CGCM, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly, the complex lead-lag relationships between the two phenomena, in which a weak ISM occurs during the developing phase of an El Nino event in the Pacific, are closely resembling the observed ones. Evidence is presented to show that these improvements are related to changes in the characteristics of the model's El Nino which has a more realistic evolution in its developing and decaying phases, a stronger amplitude and a shift to lower frequencies when a 2-hourly SST coupling strategy is implemented without any significant changes in the basic state of the CGCM. As a consequence of these improvements in ENSO variability, the lead relationships between Indo-Pacific SSTs and ISM rainfall resemble the observed patterns more closely, the ISM-ENSO teleconnection is strengthened during boreal summer and ISM rainfall power spectrum

  14. The New England travel market: changes in generational travel patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine and explore the New England domestic travel market trends, from 1979 through 1991 within the context of generations. The existing travel markets, who travel to New England, are changing by age cohorts and specifically within different generations. The New England changes in generational travel patterns do not reflect national...

  15. Changes in the food and beverage consumption pattern in Argentina, 1996-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Elisa Zapata

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The dietary pattern of the population has shifted in recent years as a result of cultural changes and modifications in food accessibility. In order to describe the changes in food and beverage consumption patterns in the last two decades in Argentina, the National Survey of Household Expenditure [Encuesta Nacional de Gastos de los Hogares] was analyzed for the periods 1996-1997, 2004-2005 and 2012-2013. The average apparent consumption of food and beverages in grams or milliliters of net weight per adult equivalent was estimated for each period. The variation in the amount of food and beverages available for consumption between 1996 and 2013 shows that the structure of the dietary pattern has changed, appearing to indicate shifts in the ways of buying, preparing and consuming foods related to greater convenience and accessibility and less time spent on food preparation.

  16. Compound-Specific Hydrogen Isotope Evidence of Late Quaternary Paleohydrologic Change from the Atlantic Coastal Plain, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, C.; Taylor, A. K.; Spencer, J.; Jones, K.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructions of late Quaternary paleohydrology are rare from the U.S. Atlantic coastal plain (ACP). Here we present compound-specific hydrogen isotope analyses of terrestrially-derived n-alkanes (δ2Halkane) from Jones Lake and Singletary Lake in eastern North Carolina spanning the last 50,000 years. Combined with prior pollen, charcoal, and bulk sediment geochemical analyses, the δ2Halkane data indicate arid conditions during the late-Pleistocene, but marked differences in edaphic conditions at the two sites likely due to differing water table depths. The Pleistocene-Holocene transition is marked by rapid fluctuations in δ2Halkane values that resemble the Bølling Allerød and Younger Dryas climatic events indicating potential sensitivity of regional hydrology to rapid climate change. The δ2Halkane data indicate a generally mesic Holocene that supported colonization by Quercus-dominated ecosystems during the early to middle Holocene. Evidence of increased aridity on the in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina contrasts with evidence of mesic conditions in eastern North Carolina during the middle to late Holocene, a geographic pattern similar to modern teleconnected precipitation responses to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern may be indicative of a stronger Pacific basin influence on regional paleoprecipitation patterns than the distally-closer Atlantic. A transition from Quercus-to Pinus-dominated ecosystems 5500 cal yr B.P. is accompanied by a large increase in charcoal abundance, but is not coincident with any high-amplitude changes in the δ2Halkane record, indicating that precipitation variability was not likely the mechanism responsible for this ecological transition. While further development of regional paleohydrological records is necessary, the lack of a clear change in middle Holocene precipitation dynamics and the temporally-heterogeneous nature of the Quercus-Pinus transition in the region indicate prehistoric anthropogenic

  17. Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2017-04-01

    This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

  18. Consumers' dietary patterns and desires for change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Land, Birgit

    of the results of a questionnaire survey (Jelsøe, Land & Lassen, 1994), so that their ways of life, age, number of children, distance to etc., were known in advance. Their dietary patterns, as revealed by the questionnaire survey, had no influence on the selection. 3. Not unexpectedly, the questionnaire survey...... living at home and where the children had left home. In order to illustrate how dietary patterns affect the various daily practices of different ways of life another important selection criterion was to choose four families within each way of life: the wage earner w life, the career way of life...... explain how Ziehe's work can be linked to changes in food consumption. 5. The in-depth interviews were analysed across the twelve families around eleven focus points: * division of labour in the family and the time available * economic resources * consumers' perception of quality * ecological products...

  19. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  20. Fibrocystic change of breast : relation with parenchymal pattern on mammogram and fibroadenoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ki Yeol; Cha, In Ho; Kang, Eun Young; Kim, Jung Hyuk [Korea Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-10-01

    To determine the relationship between fibrocystic change and parenchymal pattern and fibroadenoma on mammogram. Mammograms of 135 patients with histologically- diagnosed fibrocystic disease after excisional biopsy were retrospectively analyzed and correlated with pathologic specimens. Classification of the parenchymal pattern was based on Wolfe's method. On mammogram, we observed abnormality in 88 out of the 135 cases;these latter consisted of 70 cases of DY, 30 of P2, 20 of P1, and 15 of Nl, following Wolfe's parenchymal patterns. Among the 88 abnormal cases we obseved 37 cases of mass with clear boundaries, five cases of mass with unclear boundaries, 22 with clustered microcalcifications, six with macrocalcifications and 18 with asymmetric dense breast. Histologic examination revealed a varying composition of stromal fibrosis, epithelial hyperplasia,cyst formation, apocrine metaplasia, etc. Histologically fibroadenomatoid change in 18 cases was appeared as a radiopaque mass on mammogram, especially in those cases where the change was well-defined, which were all except three. Fibrocystic disease was prevalent in Wolfe's P2 and DY patterns(about 80%). About 40% of fibrocystic change appearing as a well defined mass on mammogram showed fibroadenomatoid chage histologically and was difficult to differentiate from fibroadenoma. Fibrocystic disease should therefore be included in the differential diagnosis of a mass which on mammogram is well-defined.

  1. Mapping the order and pattern of brain structural MRI changes using change-point analysis in premanifest Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dan; Faria, Andreia V; Younes, Laurent; Mori, Susumu; Brown, Timothy; Johnson, Hans; Paulsen, Jane S; Ross, Christopher A; Miller, Michael I

    2017-10-01

    Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder that progressively affects motor, cognitive, and emotional functions. Structural MRI studies have demonstrated brain atrophy beginning many years prior to clinical onset ("premanifest" period), but the order and pattern of brain structural changes have not been fully characterized. In this study, we investigated brain regional volumes and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measurements in premanifest HD, and we aim to determine (1) the extent of MRI changes in a large number of structures across the brain by atlas-based analysis, and (2) the initiation points of structural MRI changes in these brain regions. We adopted a novel multivariate linear regression model to detect the inflection points at which the MRI changes begin (namely, "change-points"), with respect to the CAG-age product (CAP, an indicator of extent of exposure to the effects of CAG repeat expansion). We used approximately 300 T1-weighted and DTI data from premanifest HD and control subjects in the PREDICT-HD study, with atlas-based whole brain segmentation and change-point analysis. The results indicated a distinct topology of structural MRI changes: the change-points of the volumetric measurements suggested a central-to-peripheral pattern of atrophy from the striatum to the deep white matter; and the change points of DTI measurements indicated the earliest changes in mean diffusivity in the deep white matter and posterior white matter. While interpretation needs to be cautious given the cross-sectional nature of the data, these findings suggest a spatial and temporal pattern of spread of structural changes within the HD brain. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5035-5050, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Implications of the permanent El Niño teleconnection "blueprint" for past global and North American hydroclimatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Goldner

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Substantial evidence exists for wetter-than-modern continental conditions in North America during the pre-Quaternary warm climate intervals. This is in apparent conflict with the robust global prediction for future climate change of a northward expansion of the subtropical dry zones that should drive aridification of many semiarid regions. Indeed, areas of expected future aridification include much of western North America, where extensive paleoenvironmental records are documented to have been much wetter before the onset of Quaternary ice ages. It has also been proposed that climates previous to the Quaternary may have been characterized as being in a state with warmer-than-modern eastern equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs. Because equatorial Pacific SSTs exert strong controls on midlatitude atmospheric circulation and the global hydrologic cycle, the teleconnected response from this permanent El Niño-like mean state has been proposed as a useful analogue model, or "blueprint", for understanding global climatological anomalies in the past. The present study quantitatively explores the implications of this blueprint for past climates with a specific focus on the Miocene and Pliocene, using a global climate model (CAM3.0 and a nested high-resolution climate model (RegCM3 to study the hydrologic impacts on global and North American climate of a change in mean SSTs resembling that which occurs during modern El Niño events. We find that the global circulation response to a permanent El Niño resembles a large, long El Niño event. This state also exhibits equatorial super-rotation, which would represent a fundamental change to the tropical circulations. We also find a southward shift in winter storm tracks in the Pacific and Atlantic, which affects precipitation and temperature over the mid-latitudes. In addition, summertime precipitation increases over the majority of the continental United States. These increases in precipitation are

  3. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian

    2017-09-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.

  4. Key principles for adapting South African settlement patterns to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Wyk, Llewellyn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify key principles for adapting SA settlement patterns to climate change. Section 1 reviews the range of climate-related impacts likely to affect SA settlements using climate change models and scenarios as a context...

  5. Changing patterns of brain activation during maze learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Horn, J D; Gold, J M; Esposito, G; Ostrem, J L; Mattay, V; Weinberger, D R; Berman, K F

    1998-05-18

    Recent research has found that patterns of brain activation involving the frontal cortex during novel task performance change dramatically following practice and repeat performance. Evidence for differential left vs. right frontal lobe activation, respectively, during episodic memory encoding and retrieval has also been reported. To examine these potentially related issues regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) was measured in 15 normal volunteers using positron emission tomography (PET) during the naive and practiced performance of a maze task paradigm. SPM analysis indicated a largely right-sided, frontal lobe activation during naive performance. Following training and practice, performance of the same maze task elicited a more posterior pattern of rCBF activation involving posterior cingulate and precuneus. The change in the pattern of rCBF activation between novel and practiced task conditions agrees with results found in previous studies using repeat task methodology, and indicates that the neural circuitry required for encoding novel task information differs from that required when the same task has become familiar and information is being recalled. The right-sided preponderance of activation during naive performance may relate to task novelty and the spatially-based nature of the stimuli, whereas posterior areas activated during repeat performance are those previously found to be associated with visuospatial memory recall. Activation of these areas, however, does not agree with previously reported findings of left-sided activation during verbal episodic memory encoding and right-sided activation during retrieval, suggesting different neural substrates for verbal and visuospatial processing within memory. Copyright 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

  6. Compound-specific isotope records of late-quaternary environmental change in southeastern North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Chad S.; Taylor, Audrey K.; Spencer, Jessica; Jones, Kaylee B.

    2018-02-01

    Reconstructions of late Quaternary paleohydrology are rare from the U.S. Atlantic coastal plain (ACP). Here we present compound-specific hydrogen (δ2Halkane) and carbon (δ13Calkane) isotope analyses of terrestrially-derived n-alkanes from Jones Lake and Singletary Lake in eastern North Carolina spanning the last ∼50,000 years. Combined with pollen, charcoal, and bulk geochemical analyses, the δ2Halkane data indicate arid conditions during the late-Pleistocene, but differing edaphic conditions at the sites perhaps related to differing water table depths. The δ13Calkane data indicate a significant C4 plant component during the late Pleistocene, but other proxies indicate a sparsely-vegetated landscape. The Pleistocene-Holocene transition is marked by rapid fluctuations in δ2Halkane values that are similar to the patterns of Bølling Allerød and Younger Dryas isotope data from Greenland indicating sensitivity of the regional climate to short-lived, high-amplitude climatic events. The δ2Halkane data indicate a mesic early Holocene that supported colonization by Quercus-dominated ecosystems. Evidence of middle Holocene aridity in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina contrasts with evidence of mesic conditions on the ACP, a geographic pattern similar to modern teleconnected precipitation responses to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A transition to Pinus-dominated ecosystems ∼5500 cal yr B.P. is accompanied by a large increase charcoal, but is not coincident with any large changes in δ2Halkane values, indicating that hydrologic change was likely not responsible for sustained late-Holocene dominance of Pinus. The lack of a change in middle Holocene hydrology and the spatiotemporally heterogeneous nature of the Quercus-Pinus transition on the ACP indicate prehistoric anthropogenic land management practices may represent the most parsimonious explanation for the regionally pervasive ecological change.

  7. Cognition-emotion interactions: patterns of change and implications for math problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trezise, Kelly; Reeve, Robert A.

    2014-01-01

    Surprisingly little is known about whether relationships between cognitive and emotional states remain stable or change over time, or how different patterns of stability and/or change in the relationships affect problem solving abilities. Nevertheless, cross-sectional studies show that anxiety/worry may reduce working memory (WM) resources, and the ability to minimize the effects anxiety/worry is higher in individuals with greater WM capacity. To investigate the patterns of stability and/or change in cognition-emotion relations over time and their implications for problem solving, 126 14-year-olds’ algebraic WM and worry levels were assessed twice in a single day before completing an algebraic math problem solving test. We used latent transition analysis to identify stability/change in cognition-emotion relations, which yielded a six subgroup solution. Subgroups varied in WM capacity, worry, and stability/change relationships. Among the subgroups, we identified a high WM/low worry subgroup that remained stable over time and a high WM/high worry, and a moderate WM/low worry subgroup that changed to low WM subgroups over time. Patterns of stability/change in subgroup membership predicted algebraic test results. The stable high WM/low worry subgroup performed best and the low WM capacity-high worry “unstable across time” subgroup performed worst. The findings highlight the importance of assessing variations in cognition-emotion relationships over time (rather than assessing cognition or emotion states alone) to account for differences in problem solving abilities. PMID:25132830

  8. Cognition-emotion interactions: Patterns of change and implications for math problem solving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly eTrezise

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Surprisingly little is known about whether relationships between cognitive and emotional states remain stable or change over time, or how different patterns of stability and/or change in the relationships affect problem solving abilities. Nevertheless, cross-sectional studies show that anxiety/worry may reduce working memory resources, and the ability to minimize the effects anxiety/worry is higher in individuals with greater WM capacity. To investigate the patterns of stability and/or change in cognition-emotion relations over time and their implications for problem solving, 126 14-year-olds’ algebraic WM and worry levels were assessed twice in a single day before completing an algebraic math problem solving test. We used latent transition analysis to identify stability/change in cognition-emotion relations, which yielded a six subgroup solution. Subgroups varied in WM capacity, worry, and stability/change relationships. Among the subgroups, we identified a high WM/low worry subgroup that remained stable over time and a high WM/high worry, and a moderate WM/low worry subgroup that changed to low WM subgroups over time. Patterns of stability/change in subgroup membership predicted algebraic test results. The stable high WM/low worry subgroup performed best and the low WM capacity-high worry unstable across time subgroup performed worst. The findings highlight the importance of assessing variations in cognition-emotion relationships over time (rather than assessing cognition or emotion states alone to account for differences in problem solving abilities.

  9. Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Helen H. [Iowa State University, Department of Economics, 578 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011 (United States)]. E-mail hhjensen@iastate.edu

    2006-07-01

    Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

  10. Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jensen, Helen H. . E-mail hhjensen@iastate.edu

    2006-01-01

    Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends

  11. Changes in seafood consumer preference patterns and associated changes in risk exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Helen H

    2006-01-01

    Consumers world-wide are driving changes in the agriculture and food sector. Rising consumer income, changing demographics and lifestyles, and shifting preferences due to new information about the links between diet and health all contribute to new demands for foods. At the same time, technological changes in production, processing and distribution, growth in large-scale retailing, and changes in product availability, as well as expansion of trade world wide, have contributed to a rapidly changing market for food products. Changes in seafood consumption reflect these changes. The changes in consumer consumption patterns, new technologies and trade in product offer both expanded markets as well as new challenges to consumer exposure to food-borne risks. The strict quality control requirements of retail brokers, growth of private labels, and development of value-protecting marketing channels have become increasingly important in food markets. This paper addresses major trends that affect seafood consumption and the market for seafood products and the implications of these changes for consumer risk exposure to food safety hazards. The current economic environment highlights similarities and differences between the developed and developing countries, as well as diversity worldwide in consumption of seafood. Within this context, four major trends affect consumer consumption of foods, including seafood and fish products today: rising income; changing demographics; changing markets for food; and an increasingly global market for food products. Changes in consumer risk exposure to food safety problems are addressed in the context of these trends.

  12. Changing drainage patterns within South Cascade Glacier, Washington, USA, 1964-1992

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fountain, A.G.; Vaughn, B.H.

    1995-01-01

    The theoretical patterns of water drainage are presented for South Cascade Glacier for four different years between 1964 and 1992, during which the glacier was thinning and receding. The theoretical pattern compares well, in a broad sense, with the flow pattern determined from tracer injections in 1986 and 1987. Differences between the patterns may result from the routing of surface meltwater in crevasses prior to entering the body of the glacier. The changing drainage pattern was caused by glacier thinning. The migration of a drainage divide eventually rerouted most of the surface meltwater from the main stream that drained the glacier in 1987 to another, formerly smaller, stream by 1992. On the basis of projected glacier thinning between 1992 and 1999, we predict that the drainage divide will continue to migrate across the glacier.

  13. Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

    2015-04-01

    We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

  14. Emerging pattern of global change in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Laštovička

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In the upper atmosphere, greenhouse gases produce a cooling effect, instead of a warming effect. Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to induce substantial changes in the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere, including a thermal contraction of these layers. In this article we construct for the first time a pattern of the observed long-term global change in the upper atmosphere, based on trend studies of various parameters. The picture we obtain is qualitative, and contains several gaps and a few discrepancies, but the overall pattern of observed long-term changes throughout the upper atmosphere is consistent with model predictions of the effect of greenhouse gas increases. Together with the large body of lower atmospheric trend research, our synthesis indicates that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between ground and space.

  15. Patterns and potential drivers of dramatic changes in Tibetan lakes, 1972-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yingkui; Liao, Jingjuan; Guo, Huadong; Liu, Zewen; Shen, Guozhuang

    2014-01-01

    Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia.

  16. The environmental impact of changing consumption patterns: a survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2001-01-01

    How does environmental impact change when national income increases? So far, this question has been mainly discussed from the point of view of production, but in recent years several studies have dealt with the question of decoupling from the point of view of consumption. The optimistic subscribers...... assessment of the environmental impact is most appropriately based on an input approach. Then data on input intensities for different categories of consumption goods are combined with data on changes in consumption patterns, and it is concluded that the historical changes in the composition of consumption...... seem to have done little to counterbalance the environmental effects of growth....

  17. Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

  18. Analysis of climate change impact on rainfall pattern of Sambas district, West Kalimantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang; Slamet S, Lilik

    2018-05-01

    Climate change is one of the most important issues being discussed globally. It caused by global warming and indirectly affecting the world climate cycle. This research discussed the effect of climate change on rainfall pattern of Sambas District and predicted the future rainfall pattern due to climate change. CRU and TRMM were used and has been validated using in situ data. This research was used Climate Modelling and Prediction using CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) which also validated by in situ data (correlation= 0.81). The results show that temperature trends in Sambas regency increased to 0.082°C/yr from 1991-2014 according to CRU data. High temperature trigger changes in rainfall patterns. Rainfall pattern in Sambas District has an equatorial type where the peak occurs when the sun is right on the equator. Rainfall in Sambas reaches the maximum in March and September when the equinox occurs. The CCAM model is used to project rainfall in Sambas District in the future. The model results show that rainfall in Sambas District is projected to increase to 0.018 mm/month until 2055 so the flow rate increase 0.006 m3/month and the water balance increase 0.009 mm/month.

  19. Mexico's summer rainfall patterns: an analysis of regional modes and changes in their teleconnectivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Englehart, P.J.; Douglas, A.V. [Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciencies, Creighton University, Omaha, N.E. (United States)

    2002-07-01

    This study explores the interanual variability in Mexico's warm season rainfall. It is based on historical rainfall data (1927-1997) from a grid of 130 long-term stations. The grid provides reasonable spatial coverage over most of the country. Using Principal Component Analysis, this study delimits five relatively large sub-areas of the country. Within each of these regions, monthly station rainfall exhibits high levels of spatial coherence. The regional structures are distinct and physically plausible with respect to the climatology of Mexico. The regional time series are expressed as departures from normal. In most of these series the intra seasonal, that is, month to month, persistence is minimal; in fact, only a few of the series display significant tendencies toward nonrandom serial behavior. This study evaluates the tele connectivity between the regional rainfall series and several different indices of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variability. These indices include an El Nino-Southern Oscillation index, indices that describe the strength and position of the subtropical anticyclone belt, as well as local SSTs in the Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. All of the tele connections analyses consider the quasi-decadal mode of variability that is commonly referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). The study results generally agree with the findings of other researchers to the extent that they indicate differential tele connectivity as a function of PDO phase. However, unlike other studies, we see no compelling evidence for non-linear behavior in the tele connections within PDO phase. Instead, the more prominent feature of the tele connections is simply that they tend to be both more spatially extensive and stronger in the positive PDO phase. [Spanish] Este estudio explora la variabilidad interanual de la lluvia de verano en Mexico. Se basa en el analisis de datos historicos de la lluvia de 130 estaciones con un periodo largo de observacion (1927-1997). La red de estaciones provee informacion espacial razonable sobre la mayor parte del pais. Mediante un analisis de agrupamiento, en el estudio se delimitan cinco regiones relativamente grandes. Dentro de cada una de estas regiones, la lluvia mensual de las estaciones exhibe niveles altos de coherencia espacial. La estructura de cada region es clara y fisicamente razonable en relacion a la climatologia de Mexico. Las series de tiempo regionales son expresadas como desviacion con respecto a la normal. En la mayor parte de estas series, la persistencia intraestacional, es decir, de un mes a otro, es minima; de hecho, solamente algunas de las series muestran tendencias significativas hacia un comportamiento serial no aleatorio. Este estudio evalua la teleconectividad entre la series de lluvia regionales y varios indices de la variabilidad oceanografica y atmosferica de gran escala, que incluyen un indice asociado a El Nino la Oscilacion del Sur, diferentes indices que describen la posicion e intensidad del cinturon subtropical de altas presiones, asi como valores locales de la temperatura del agua de la superficie del mar en el Pacifico Oriental y Golfo de Mexico. Todos los analisis de teleconexion consideran el modo de variabilidad quasi-decadal comunmente conocida como Pacific Decadal Oscilatin (PDO). Los resultados del estudio estan de acuerdo con los resultados de otros investigadores, que muestran una teleconectividad diferencial como una funcion de fase PDO. Sin embargo, a diferencia de otros estudios, no se encuentran evidencias de un comportamiento no lineal en las teleconexiones dentro de la fase PDO. En lugar de eso, el rasgo mas destacado de las teleconexiones es simplemente que estas tienden a ser mas fuertes y extensas especialmente durante una fase positiva PDO.

  20. Patterns and drivers of land use change in selected European rural landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Søren Bech Pilgaard; Busck, Anne Gravsholt; van der Sluis, Theo

    2016-01-01

    concerns are less dominant and many landscape and land use changes are undertaken to improve public goods or fulfil personal and family ambitions and values. This paper investigates the patterns of farm-level land use changes that occurred between 2002 and 2012 in three different landscape regions...... with their engagement in land use changes. Common to all areas is that agricultural production is under pressure due to physical or socio-economic challenges. The results indicate that relatively more nature or landscape features have been added by landowners than removed by them in the six study areas. Furthermore......, the analysis revealed that full-time landowners were responsible for the largest proportion of landscape change and that the areas involved differed greatly. The analysis also underlined the variety of European landscapes, as many landscape activities exhibited strong geographical patterns. A multivariate...

  1. Climate induced changes in the circulation and dispersal patterns of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Climate induced changes in the circulation and dispersal patterns of the fluvial sources during late Quaternary in the middle Bengal Fan ... in 14C dated box cores from the eastern, the central and the western regions were studied to determine ...

  2. Some implications of changing patterns of mineral consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzie, W. David; DeYoung,, John H.; Steblez, Walter G.

    2003-01-01

    DeYoung and Menzie (1999) examined the relations among population, Gross Domestic Product, and mineral consumption (aluminum, cement, copper, and salt) for Japan, Korea, and the United States between 1965 and 1995. They noted the extremely rapid growth of consumption in Korea between 1975 and 1995. Concomitantly, Korea's population growth rate declined. This paper extends that earlier work by examining patterns of consumption of these same commodities in the twenty most populous countries for the period 1970 through 1995. Developed countries, such as France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, show patterns of consumption that are stable (cement, copper, and salt) or grow slowly (aluminum). Some developing countries, including China, Thailand, and Turkey, show more rapid growth of consumption, especially of cement, copper, and aluminum. These changing patterns of mineral consumption in developing countries have important implications -- if they continue, there could be major increases in world mineral consumption and major increases in environmental residuals from mineral production and use. If China reaches the level of consumption of copper of developed countries, world consumption could reach levels more than twice that of 1995 (10.5 million tons).

  3. High-Resolution Mg/Ca Ratios in a Coralline Red Alga as a Proxy for Bering Sea Temperature Variations and Teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halfar, J.; Steffen, H.; Kronz, A.; Steneck, R. S.; Adey, W.; Lebednik, P. A.

    2009-05-01

    We present the first continuous high-resolution record of Mg/Ca variations within an encrusting coralline red alga of the species Clathromorphum nereostratum from Amchitka Island, Aleutian Islands. Mg/Ca ratios of individual growth increments were analyzed by measuring a single point electron microprobe transect yielding a resolution of 15 samples/year on average, generating a continuous record from 1830 to 1967 of algal Mg/Ca variations. Results show that Mg/Ca ratios in the high-Mg calcite skeleton display pronounced annual cyclicity and archive late spring to late fall sea surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the main season of algal growth. Mg/Ca values correlate well to local SST (ERSSTJun-Nov, 1902-1967; r = 0.73 for 5-year mean), as well as to an air temperature record from the same region. Our data correlate well to a shorter Mg/Ca record from a second site, corroborating the ability of the alga to reliably record regional environmental signals. In addition, Mg/Ca ratios relate well to a 29-year stable oxygen isotope time series measured on the same sample, which provides additional support for the use of Mg as a paleotemperature proxy in coralline red algae, that is, unlike stable oxygen isotopes, not influenced by salinity fluctuations. High spatial correlation to large-scale SST variability in the North Pacific is observed, with patterns of strongest correlation following the direction of major oceanographic features (i.e., the signature of the Alaska Current and the Alaskan Stream), which play a key role in the exchange of water masses between the North Pacific and the Bering Sea through Aleutian Island passages. The time series further displays significant teleconnections with the signature of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the northeast Pacific and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

  4. Changing Patterns of Cultural Imperialism in a Developing Country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everitt, John

    Using Belize, Central America, as an example, this paper illustrates some of the changing patterns of cultural imperialism that can presently be viewed in the emerging nations of the world. Cultural imperialism is defined as the process whereby the culture of a weaker nation is dominated by that of a stronger nation. In September 1981, Belize,…

  5. Patterns of structural - qualitative changes in the development of complex systems

    OpenAIRE

    S Holtier

    1992-01-01

    This paper is an attempt to outline, in an emancipatory fashion, a framework of thinking to deal with the general patterns of development. As decision problems in society are increasingly of a developmental nature compared with simple performance in equilibrium systems, the author pleads in favour of an operational approach centred on 'the algebra' of structural change. It is argued that for describing and understanding development patterns better we need a proper 'structural' and 'ontologica...

  6. Recognizing lexical and semantic change patterns in evolving life science ontologies to inform mapping adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dos Reis, Julio Cesar; Dinh, Duy; Da Silveira, Marcos; Pruski, Cédric; Reynaud-Delaître, Chantal

    2015-03-01

    Mappings established between life science ontologies require significant efforts to maintain them up to date due to the size and frequent evolution of these ontologies. In consequence, automatic methods for applying modifications on mappings are highly demanded. The accuracy of such methods relies on the available description about the evolution of ontologies, especially regarding concepts involved in mappings. However, from one ontology version to another, a further understanding of ontology changes relevant for supporting mapping adaptation is typically lacking. This research work defines a set of change patterns at the level of concept attributes, and proposes original methods to automatically recognize instances of these patterns based on the similarity between attributes denoting the evolving concepts. This investigation evaluates the benefits of the proposed methods and the influence of the recognized change patterns to select the strategies for mapping adaptation. The summary of the findings is as follows: (1) the Precision (>60%) and Recall (>35%) achieved by comparing manually identified change patterns with the automatic ones; (2) a set of potential impact of recognized change patterns on the way mappings is adapted. We found that the detected correlations cover ∼66% of the mapping adaptation actions with a positive impact; and (3) the influence of the similarity coefficient calculated between concept attributes on the performance of the recognition algorithms. The experimental evaluations conducted with real life science ontologies showed the effectiveness of our approach to accurately characterize ontology evolution at the level of concept attributes. This investigation confirmed the relevance of the proposed change patterns to support decisions on mapping adaptation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Land Change Regimes and the Evolution of the Maize-Cattle Complex in Neoliberal Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yankuic Galvan-Miyoshi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available How globalization impacts native land cover has become an important issue in studies addressing environmental change, which draw explicit attention to processes of cause and effect operating over significant distances. The literature shows that globalization constitutes an important underlying driver of both deforestation and forest transition via demographic and economic phenomena such as migration and remittance flows. Yet, little is known about how global forces mold the spatial structure of agro-commodity production and how this impacts the balance of forces affecting land change at the meso-scale, within the boundaries of the nation-state. The research presented here fills this gap by examining production networks for Mexico, a large OECD country with complex land change dynamics that has recently experienced a dramatic opening to the world economy. Specifically, we consider how maize and beef commodity chains evolved over the past few decades into a highly interdependent maize-cattle complex, and suggest linkages to patterns of land change at the national scale. Using land cover maps for 1993, 2002, and 2012, at the national scale, governmental statistics and datasets, interviews with key informants, and field observations the article provides an analysis of the impact of neoliberal reforms on the changing geography of beef and maize production, and argues that this process underlies the evolution of Mexico’s land change regime, both before and after the NAFTA reforms. As such, the article presents an account, and a case for further research on the topic of how teleconnections are constituted by spatially-extensive food production networks.

  8. Climate change induced rainfall patterns affect wheat productivity and agroecosystem functioning dependent on soil types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabi Tataw, James; Baier, Fabian; Krottenthaler, Florian; Pachler, Bernadette; Schwaiger, Elisabeth; Whylidal, Stefan; Formayer, Herbert; Hösch, Johannes; Baumgarten, Andreas; Zaller, Johann G.

    2014-05-01

    Wheat is a crop of global importance supplying more than half of the world's population with carbohydrates. We examined, whether climate change induced rainfall patterns towards less frequent but heavier events alter wheat agroecosystem productivity and functioning under three different soil types. Therefore, in a full-factorial experiment Triticum aestivum L. was cultivated in 3 m2 lysimeter plots containing the soil types sandy calcaric phaeozem, gleyic phaeozem or calcic chernozem. Prognosticated rainfall patterns based on regionalised climate change model calculations were compared with current long-term rainfall patterns; each treatment combination was replicated three times. Future rainfall patterns significantly reduced wheat growth and yield, reduced the leaf area index, accelerated crop development, reduced arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi colonisation of roots, increased weed density and the stable carbon isotope signature (δ13C) of both old and young wheat leaves. Different soil types affected wheat growth and yield, ecosystem root production as well as weed abundance and biomass. The interaction between climate and soil type was significant only for the harvest index. Our results suggest that even slight changes in rainfall patterns can significantly affect the functioning of wheat agroecosystems. These rainfall effects seemed to be little influenced by soil types suggesting more general impacts of climate change across different soil types. Wheat production under future conditions will likely become more challenging as further concurrent climate change factors become prevalent.

  9. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar Ahmad; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

    2017-09-01

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM's summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

  10. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Gong, Zhiqiang

    2017-04-05

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection. The differences of summer precipitation modes of the empirical orthogonal function and the bias of atmospheric circulations over EA-NWP are analyzed to determine the reason for the precipitation prediction errors. Results indicate that the BCC_CSM could not reproduce the positive-negative-positive meridional tripole pattern from south to north that differs markedly from that observed over the last 20 years. This failure can be attributed to the bias of the BCC_CSM hindcasts of the summer EAP teleconnection and the low predictability of 500 hPa at the mid-high latitude lobe of the EAP. Meanwhile, the BCC_CSM hindcasts\\' deficiencies of atmospheric responses to SST anomalies over the Indonesia maritime continent (IMC) resulted in opposite and geographically shifted geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa as well as wind and vorticity anomalies at 850 hPa, rendering the BCC_CSM unable to correctly reproduce the EAP teleconnection pattern. Understanding these two problems will help further improve BCC_CSM\\'s summer precipitation forecasting ability over EA-NWP.

  11. Food and drinking patterns as predictors of 6-year BMI-adjusted changes in waist circumference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halkjær, Jytte; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Tjønneland, Anne

    2004-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the prospective associations between diet or drinking patterns and abdominal obesity; we therefore investigated whether food and beverage groups or patterns predicted 6-year changes in waist circumference (WC) and whether these associations were independent...... of concurrent changes in BMI as a measure of general obesity. The subjects were 2300 middle-aged men and women with repeated measurements of dietary intake, BMI and WC from 1982 to 1993. Intakes from ten food groups and from coffee, tea, wine, beer and spirits were assessed; gender-specific food factors were......, but the associations were weakened, especially for women, after adjustment for BMI changes. None of the food factors was associated with WC changes. Based on the present study, we conclude that very few food items and no food patterns seem to predict changes in WC, whereas high intakes of beer and spirits among women...

  12. The possible physical mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Feng, Guolin; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Huang, Gang

    2017-11-01

    The anomalous characteristics of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the East Asia-West Pacific Region (EA-WP) associated with the co-action of East Asia/Pacific teleconnection-Silk Road teleconnection (EAP-SR) are investigated in this study. The compositions of EAP-SR phase anomalies can be expressed as pattern I (+ +), pattern II (+ -), pattern III (- -), and pattern IV (- +) using EAP and SR indices. It is found that the spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in EA-WP corresponding to pattern I (III) shows a tripole structure in the meridional direction and a zonal dipole structure in the subtropical region, while pattern II (IV) presents a tripole pattern in meridional direction with compressed and continuous anomalies in the zonal direction over the subtropical region. The similar meridional and zonal structures are also found in the geopotential height anomalies at 500-hPa, as well as wind anomalies and moisture convergence at 850-hPa. Finally, a schematic mechanism for the EAP-SR co-action upon the summer precipitation in EA-WP is built: (1) Pattern I (III) exhibits that the negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over tropical East Pacific may cause the enhanced (weakened) convective activity dominating the West Pacific, trigger the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection and produce more (less) precipitation. Besides, the negative (positive) SST anomalies over the Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) may further weaken (strengthen) anomalous downward (upward) motion over the South China Sea (SCS), cause negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies at the middle troposphere and surrounding regions through the function of the tropical Hadley circulation. Then the negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies could motivate the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection through the northward propagation of wave-activity perturbation. Meanwhile, a positive (negative) geopotential height anomalous pattern

  13. Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

    2017-08-01

    Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

  14. Characterizing long-term patterns of weight change in China using latent class trajectory modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Paynter

    Full Text Available Over the past three decades, obesity-related diseases have increased tremendously in China, and are now the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Patterns of weight change can be used to predict risk of obesity-related diseases, increase understanding of etiology of disease risk, identify groups at particularly high risk, and shape prevention strategies.Latent class trajectory modeling was used to compute weight change trajectories for adults aged 18 to 66 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS data (n = 12,611. Weight change trajectories were computed separately for males and females by age group at baseline due to differential age-related patterns of weight gain in China with urbanization. Generalized linear mixed effects models examined the association between weight change trajectories and baseline characteristics including urbanicity, BMI category, age, and year of study entry.Trajectory classes were identified for each of six age-sex subgroups corresponding to various degrees of weight loss, maintenance and weight gain. Baseline BMI status was a significant predictor of trajectory membership for all age-sex subgroups. Baseline overweight/obesity increased odds of following 'initial loss with maintenance' trajectories. We found no significant association between baseline urbanization and trajectory membership after controlling for other covariates.Trajectory analysis identified patterns of weight change for age by gender groups. Lack of association between baseline urbanization status and trajectory membership suggests that living in a rural environment at baseline was not protective. Analyses identified age-specific nuances in weight change patterns, pointing to the importance of subgroup analyses in future research.

  15. The Effect of Aging on Muscular Dynamics Underlying Movement Patterns Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernooij, Carlijn A; Rao, Guillaume; Berton, Eric; Retornaz, Frédérique; Temprado, Jean-Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Aging leads to alterations not only within the complex subsystems of the neuro-musculo-skeletal system, but also in the coupling between them. Here, we studied how aging affects functional reorganizations that occur both within and between the behavioral and muscular levels, which must be coordinated to produce goal-directed movements. Using unimanual reciprocal Fitts' task, we examined the behavioral and muscular dynamics of older adults (74.4 ± 3.7 years) and compared them to those found for younger adults (23.2 ± 2.0 years). Methods: To achieve this objective, we manipulated the target size to trigger a phase transition in the behavioral regime and searched for concomitant signatures of a phase transition in the muscular coordination. Here, muscular coordination was derived by using the method of muscular synergy extraction. With this technique, we obtained functional muscular patterns through non-negative matrix factorization of the muscular signals followed by clustering the resulting synergies. Results: Older adults showed a phase transition in behavioral regime, although, in contrast to young participants, their kinematic profiles did not show a discontinuity. In parallel, muscular coordination displayed two typical signatures of a phase transition, that is, increased variability of coordination patterns and a reorganization of muscular synergies. Both signatures confirmed the existence of muscular reorganization in older adults, which is coupled with change in dynamical regime at behavioral level. However, relative to young adults, transition occurred at lower index of difficulty (ID) in older participants and the reorganization of muscular patterns lasted longer (over multiple IDs). Discussion: This implies that consistent changes occur in coordination processes across behavior and muscle. Furthermore, the repertoire of muscular patterns was reduced and somewhat modified for older adults, relative to young participants. This suggests that

  16. The changing pattern of the Western world enrichment industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paleit, J.A.

    1988-01-01

    Past and future changes in the long-term enrichment market of the Western world are discussed, mainly from an economic point of view. Major trends and issues are summarized in the following subjects: an abstract economic model of market forms; factors specific to the enrichment market for defining its overall place within the economic model; a description of the changing pattern (market forms) of the Western world enrichment market and its major regional components in the period 1973-95 (one of the last years of the US world-wide monopoly, and one of the last years of contracts concluded in the early 1970s, respectively); a commentary, on the basis of four 'perfect market' criteria, on the main factors influencing these changes; an outlook on the market in the year 2000. (author)

  17. Estimation of color modification in digital images by CFA pattern change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Chang-Hee; Lee, Hae-Yeoun; Lee, Heung-Kyu

    2013-03-10

    Extensive studies have been carried out for detecting image forgery such as copy-move, re-sampling, blurring, and contrast enhancement. Although color modification is a common forgery technique, there is no reported forensic method for detecting this type of manipulation. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for estimating color modification in images acquired from digital cameras when the images are modified. Most commercial digital cameras are equipped with a color filter array (CFA) for acquiring the color information of each pixel. As a result, the images acquired from such digital cameras include a trace from the CFA pattern. This pattern is composed of the basic red green blue (RGB) colors, and it is changed when color modification is carried out on the image. We designed an advanced intermediate value counting method for measuring the change in the CFA pattern and estimating the extent of color modification. The proposed method is verified experimentally by using 10,366 test images. The results confirmed the ability of the proposed method to estimate color modification with high accuracy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. [Changes of menstruation patterns and adverse effects during the treatment of LNG-IUS for symptomatic adenomyosis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L; Leng, J H; Zhang, J J; Jia, S Z; Li, X Y; Shi, J H; Dai, Y; Zhang, J R; Li, T; Xu, X X; Liu, Z Z; You, S S; Chang, X Y; Lang, J H

    2016-09-25

    Objective: To investigate the changes of mestruation patterns and adverse effects during the treatment of levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system(LNG-IUS)for symptomatic adenomyosis in a prospective cohort study. Methods: From December, 2006 to December, 2014, patients of symptomatic adenomyosis diagnosed by transvaginal ultrasound in Peking Union Medical College Hospital were given LNG-IUS. Before and after placement of IUS, all patients' parameters were recorded, including carrying status of IUS, symptoms and scores of dysmenorrhea, menstruation scores, biochemical indicators, physical parameters, menstruation patterns and adverse effects. Risk factors for changes of menstruation patterns and adverse effects, and their impact on treatment effects were analyzed. Results: Totally 1 100 cases met inclusion criteria, with median age 36 years(range 20-44 years), median follow-up 35 months(range 1 -108 months). During follow-up changes of menstruation patterns increased significantly with amenorrhea and shortened-menstruation being the most common manifestations. On 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months after the placement of LNG-IUS, 0, 5.8%(43/744), 6.9%(47/682), 10.1%(60/595), 17.3%(87/502), 27.2%(104/383)and 29.6%(82/277)patients achieved amenorrhea respectively( P 12 months after placement, abdominal pain and body weight increasing ≥5 kg/year were the most common adverse effects. Changes of menstruation patterns, total and subclassifications of adverse effects were neither dependent on patient parameters, treatment modes and treatment effects, nor could predict future LNG-IUS carrying status(all P > 0.05). After taking out of LNG-IUS, most changes of menstruation and adverse effects disappeared. Conclusions: During the treatment of LNG-IUS for symptomatic adenomyosis, changes of menstruation patterns increase gradually with amenorrhea and shortened-menstruation being the most common manifestations, while adverse effects decrease significantly. Changes of

  19. Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, J.-H.; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

    2018-01-01

    Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U–Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap–offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A −1 to −6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

  20. Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montañez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, Jitao; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

    2018-06-01

    Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U-Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap-offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A -1 to -6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

  1. The impact of ageing and changing utilization patterns on future cardiovascular drug expenditure: a pharmacoepidemiological projection approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kildemoes, Helle Wallach; Andersen, Morten; Støvring, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure.......To develop a method for projecting the impact of ageing and changing drug utilization patterns on future drug expenditure....

  2. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Daily Antarctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal...

  3. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Monthly Antarctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Southern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal...

  4. Asian students change their eating patterns after living in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y L; Dixon, Z; Himburg, S; Huffman, F

    1999-01-01

    To collect information on changes in dietary patterns among Asian students before and after immigration to the United States. A questionnaire designed to collect information about background, changes in food habits, and frequency of food consumption from a 72-item food list was mailed to subjects. Potential participants were students of local universities and junior colleges who were born in China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, or Korea and were aged 18 years or older. All subjects were required to have been residing in the United States for at least 3 months before the start of the study. Questionnaires were mailed to 120 potential participants. Paired t tests were used to determine differences in eating patterns and frequency of food consumption of subjects before and after immigrating to the United States. Seventy-one questionnaires were returned. Because of missing information on 8 of these questionnaires, only 63 were used in the analysis, which gave a response rate of 53%. The number of students consuming only 2 meals per day increased significantly; 29 (46%) respondents skipped breakfast because of their school schedules. Despite no significant change in the frequency of snack consumption, a majority (n = 46; 73%) of the respondents were consuming more salty and sweet snack items. Subjects were eating out less often, but they were selecting more American-style fast foods when they did eat out. Significant increases were noted in consumption of fats/sweets, diary products, and fruits, and significant decreases were noted in the consumption of meat/meat alternatives and vegetables after immigration to the United States. Results of this study could be useful to dietetics practitioners as they observe changes in dietary patterns of Asian immigrants. These health professionals can use this information to plan nutrition education programs for Asian groups so that they can make informed decisions in adapting to new eating patterns and make wise food choices in their

  5. The Changes of Interaction Patterns between Males and Famales in Love Relationships

    OpenAIRE

    川名 , 好裕

    2014-01-01

    Internet survey was conducted to study the changes of interaction patterns betweenmen and women in love relationships. Survey participants are 968 males and 967 females of all over Japan. Their ages are between 20~49. Samples were divided into 6 different love relationship phases: friend, unrequited, platonic, love-sexual, affianced and married. The degrees of contents of love relation interactions; communication, co-activities, body contacts were investigated. These interaction patterns were...

  6. Teleconnections associated with the intensification of the Australian monsoon during El Nino Modoki events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taschetto, A S; Gupta, A Sen; Ummenhofer, C C; England, M H; Haarsma, R J

    2010-01-01

    In this study we investigate the teleconnection between the central-western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming, characteristic of El Nino Modoki events, and Australian rainfall using observations and atmospheric general circulation model experiments. During Modoki events, wet conditions are generally observed over northwestern Australia at the peak of the monsoon season (i.e. January and February) while dry conditions occur in the shoulder-months (i.e. December and March). This results in a shorter but more intense monsoon season over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology. We show that, apart from the well-known displacement of the Walker circulation, the anomalous warming in the central-western equatorial Pacific also induces a westward-propagating disturbance associated with a Gill-type mechanism. This in turn generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia that reinforces the climatological mean conditions during the peak of the monsoon season. The anomalous circulation leads to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation over northern Australia. This response, however, only occurs persistently during austral summer when the South Pacific Convergence Zone is climatologically strengthened, phase-locking the Gill-type response to the seasonal cycle. The interaction between the interannual SST variability during El Nino Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central-west Pacific, driving a Gill-type response to diabatic heating. The intensified monsoonal rainfall occurs strongly in February due to the climatological wind conditions that are normally cyclonic over northwestern Australia.

  7. Sleep patterning changes in a prenatal stress model of depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sickmann, Helle Mark; Skoven, C; Bastlund, Jesper F

    2018-01-01

    /wakefulness behavior around the change from light-to-dark phase. Control and PNS Sprague-Dawley rats were implanted with electrodes for continuous monitoring of electroencephalic activity used to determine behavioral state. The distribution of slow-wave sleep (SWS), rapid eye movement sleep (REMS) and wakefulness......Clinical depression is accompanied by changes in sleep patterning, which is controlled in a circadian fashion. It is thus desirable that animal models of depression mirror such diurnally-specific state alterations, along with other behavioral and physiological changes. We previously found several...... changes in behavior indicative of a depression-like phenotype in offspring of rats subjected to repeated, variable prenatal stress (PNS), including increased locomotor activity during specific periods of the circadian cycle. We, therefore, investigated whether PNS rats also exhibit alterations in sleep...

  8. Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.

    1992-01-01

    Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 , soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist's choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change

  9. Development of infant mismatch responses to auditory pattern changes between 2 and 4 months old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chao; Hotson, Lisa; Trainor, Laurel J

    2009-02-01

    In order to process speech and music, the auditory cortex must learn to process patterns of sounds. Our previous studies showed that with a stream consisting of a repeating (standard) sound, younger infants show an increase in the amplitude of a positive slow wave in response to occasional changes (deviants) in pitch or duration, whereas older infants show a faster negative response that resembles mismatch negativity (MMN) in adults (Trainor et al., 2001, 2003; He et al., 2007). MMN reflects an automatic change-detection process that does not require attention, conscious awareness or behavioural response for its elicitation (Picton et al., 2000; Näätänen et al., 2007). It is an important tool for understanding auditory perception because MMN reflects a change-detection mechanism, and not simply that repetition of a stimulus results in a refractory state of sensory neural circuits while occasional changes to a new sound activate new non-refractory neural circuits (Näätänen et al., 2005). For example, MMN is elicited by a change in the pattern of a repeating note sequence, even when no new notes are introduced that could activate new sensory circuits (Alain et al., 1994, 1999;Schröger et al., 1996). In the present study, we show that in response to a change in the pattern of two repeating tones, MMN in 4-month-olds remains robust whereas the 2-month-old response does not. This indicates that the MMN response to a change in pattern at 4 months reflects the activation of a change-detection mechanism similarly as in adults.

  10. Climate Prediction Center Monthly(CPC)Arctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal Function...

  11. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Daily Arctic Oscillation Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a leading teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. It is calculated as the first Empirical Orthogonal Function...

  12. Determinants of changes in dietary patterns among Chinese immigrants: a cross-sectional analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seidell Jaap

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chinese individuals who have immigrated to a Western country initially tend to have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD compared to people who are already living there. Some studies have found, however, that CVD risk increases over time in immigrants and that immigration to a western country is associated with changes in dietary patterns. This could have unfavourable effects on the risk of CVD. There is limited knowledge on the food patterns, awareness and knowledge about healthy nutrition among Chinese immigrants. The objective for this study is to explore changes in food patterns, and levels of awareness and knowledge of healthy nutrition by length of residence among Chinese immigrants to Canada. Methods 120 Chinese individuals born in China but currently living in Canada completed an assessment on socio-demographic characteristics, changes in dietary patterns and variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods. With ordinal logistic regression the associations between the quartiles of length of residence and dietary patterns, variables of awareness and knowledge about healthy foods were explored, adjusting for age, sex, education and body mass index. Results More than 50% of the participants reported increasing consumption of fruits and vegetables, decreasing the use of deep-frying after immigration. Increased awareness and knowledge about healthy foods was reported by more than 50% of the participants. Ordinal regression indicated that Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the longest, compared to Chinese immigrants who lived in Canada the shortest, consumed significant greater portion sizes (OR: 9.9; 95% CI: 3.11 - 31.15, dined out more frequently (OR: 15.8; 95% CI: 5.0 - 49.85, and consumed convenience foods more often (OR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.23 - 10.01. Conclusions Chinese immigrants reported some favourable changes in their dietary intake and greater awareness and more knowledge about healthy foods after

  13. Personality and Changes in Comorbidity Patterns Among Anxiety and Depressive Disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spinhoven, Philip; de Rooij, Mark; Heiser, Willem; Smit, Johannes H.; Penninx, Brenda

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study examined the prognostic value of the Big Five personality model for changes in comorbidity patterns of emotional disorders both from a person- and trait-centered perspective. Moreover, it is investigated whether the predictive effect of personality can be attributed to symptom

  14. Personality and changes in comorbidity patterns among anxiety and depressive disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spinhoven, P.; de Rooij, M.; Heiser, W.; Smit, J.H.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study examined the prognostic value of the Big Five personality model for changes in comorbidity patterns of emotional disorders both from a person- and trait-centered perspective. Moreover, it is investigated whether the predictive effect of personality can be attributed to symptom

  15. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2017-10-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  16. Quantifying Forest Spatial Pattern Trends at Multiple Extents: An Approach to Detect Significant Changes at Different Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ludovico Frate

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We propose a procedure to detect significant changes in forest spatial patterns and relevant scales. Our approach consists of four sequential steps. First, based on a series of multi-temporal forest maps, a set of geographic windows of increasing extents are extracted. Second, for each extent and date, specific stochastic simulations that replicate real-world spatial pattern characteristics are run. Third, by computing pattern metrics on both simulated and real maps, their empirical distributions and confidence intervals are derived. Finally, multi-temporal scalograms are built for each metric. Based on cover maps (1954, 2011 with a resolution of 10 m we analyze forest pattern changes in a central Apennines (Italy reserve at multiple spatial extents (128, 256 and 512 pixels. We identify three types of multi-temporal scalograms, depending on pattern metric behaviors, describing different dynamics of natural reforestation process. The statistical distribution and variability of pattern metrics at multiple extents offers a new and powerful tool to detect forest variations over time. Similar procedures can (i help to identify significant changes in spatial patterns and provide the bases to relate them to landscape processes; (ii minimize the bias when comparing pattern metrics at a single extent and (iii be extended to other landscapes and scales.

  17. A model of phone call intervention in sensitizing the change of dietary pattern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Corrêa Chaves

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To propose a model of phone call intervention for changing dietary patterns and to assess its effectiveness. Method: A study carried out at the Health Promotion School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, with 27 subjects, 3-5 phone calls contacts per user, by means of which were given orientations and interventions on the principles of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and the Transtheoretical Model on healthy eating. We analyzed the variables weight and body mass index, dietary patterns and overall stage of motivation to change. The data were submitted to analysis of variance with repeated measures at different stages of evaluation: pre-contact, 3rd and 5th phone calls. Results: After intervention, users showed a change in eating behavior in the third contact, and change occurred in weight and BMI in one patient. All findings were not statistically significant. There was improvement in the motivation to acquire new eating habits, also not significant. Conclusion: There was a slight change in feeding behavior, the motivation to change improved for all participants, without, however, have been effective in this type of approach.

  18. Does the diurnal pattern of enteric methane emissions from dairy cows change over time?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M J; Craigon, J; Saunders, N; Goodman, J R; Garnsworthy, P C

    2018-02-22

    Diet manipulation and genetic selection are two important mitigation strategies for reducing enteric methane (CH4) emissions from ruminant livestock. The aim of this study was to assess whether the diurnal pattern of CH4 emissions from individual dairy cows changes over time when cows are fed on diets varying in forage composition. Emissions of CH4 from 36 cows were measured during milking in an automatic (robotic) milking station in three consecutive feeding periods, for a total of 84 days. In Periods 1 and 2, the 36 cows were fed a high-forage partial mixed ration (PMR) containing 75% forage, with either a high grass silage or high maize silage content. In Period 3, cows were fed a commercial PMR containing 69% forage. Cows were offered PMR ad libitum plus concentrates during milking and CH4 emitted by individual cows was sampled during 8662 milkings. A linear mixed model was used to assess differences among cows, feeding periods and time of day. Considerable variation was observed among cows in daily mean and diurnal patterns of CH4 emissions. On average, cows produced less CH4 when fed on the commercial PMR in feeding Period 3 than when the same cows were fed on high-forage diets in feeding Periods 1 and 2. The average diurnal pattern for CH4 emissions did not significantly change between feeding periods and as lactation progressed. Emissions of CH4 were positively associated with dry matter (DM) intake and forage DM intake. It is concluded that if the management of feed allocation remains constant then the diurnal pattern of CH4 emissions from dairy cows will not necessarily alter over time. A change in diet composition may bring about an increase or decrease in absolute emissions over a 24-h period without significantly changing the diurnal pattern unless management of feed allocation changes. These findings are important for CH4 monitoring techniques that involve taking measurements over short periods within a day rather than complete 24-h observations.

  19. Change detection for synthetic aperture radar images based on pattern and intensity distinctiveness analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao; Gao, Feng; Dong, Junyu; Qi, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image is independent on atmospheric conditions, and it is the ideal image source for change detection. Existing methods directly analysis all the regions in the speckle noise contaminated difference image. The performance of these methods is easily affected by small noisy regions. In this paper, we proposed a novel change detection framework for saliency-guided change detection based on pattern and intensity distinctiveness analysis. The saliency analysis step can remove small noisy regions, and therefore makes the proposed method more robust to the speckle noise. In the proposed method, the log-ratio operator is first utilized to obtain a difference image (DI). Then, the saliency detection method based on pattern and intensity distinctiveness analysis is utilized to obtain the changed region candidates. Finally, principal component analysis and k-means clustering are employed to analysis pixels in the changed region candidates. Thus, the final change map can be obtained by classifying these pixels into changed or unchanged class. The experiment results on two real SAR images datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  20. Soil Landscape Pattern Changes in Response to Rural Anthropogenic Activity across Tiaoxi Watershed, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Rui; Jiang, Diwei; Christakos, George; Fei, Xufeng; Wu, Jiaping

    2016-01-01

    Soil sealing (loss of soil resources due to extensive land covering for the purpose of house building, road construction etc.) and subsequent soil landscape pattern changes constitute typical environmental problems in many places worldwide. Previous studies concentrated on soil sealing in urbanized regions, whereas rural areas have not been given sufficient attention. Accordingly, this paper studies soil landscape pattern dynamics (i.e., landscape pattern changes in response to rural anthropogenic activities) in the Tiaoxi watershed (Zhejiang province, eastern China), in which surface sealing is by far the predominant component of human forcing with respect to environmental change. A novel approach of quantifying the impacts of rural anthropogenic activities on soil resources is presented. Specifically, quantitative relationships were derived between five soil landscape pattern metrics (patch density, edge density, shape index, Shannon’s diversity index and aggregation index) and three rural anthropogenic activity indicators (anthropogenic activity intensity, distance to towns, and distance to roads) at two landscape block scales (3 and 5 km) between 1985 and 2010. The results showed that the Tiaoxi watershed experienced extensive rural settlement expansion and high rates of soil sealing. Soil landscapes became more fragmented, more irregular, more isolated, and less diverse. Relationships between soil landscape pattern changes and rural anthropogenic activities differed with the scale (spatial and temporal) and variable considered. In particular, the anthropogenic activity intensity was found to be the most important indicator explaining social development intensity, whereas the other two proximity indicators had a significant impact at certain temporal interval. In combination with scale effects, spatial dependency (correlation) was shown to play a key role that should be carefully taken into consideration in any relevant environmental study. Overall, the

  1. Learning to Recognize Patterns: Changes in the Visual Field with Familiarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebko, James M.; Uchikawa, Keiji; Saida, Shinya; Ikeda, Mitsuo

    1995-01-01

    Two studies were conducted to investigate changes which take place in the visual information processing of novel stimuli as they become familiar. Japanese writing characters (Hiragana and Kanji) which were unfamiliar to two native English speaking subjects were presented using a moving window technique to restrict their visual fields. Study time for visual recognition was recorded across repeated sessions, and with varying visual field restrictions. The critical visual field was defined as the size of the visual field beyond which further increases did not improve the speed of recognition performance. In the first study, when the Hiragana patterns were novel, subjects needed to see about half of the entire pattern simultaneously to maintain optimal performance. However, the critical visual field size decreased as familiarity with the patterns increased. These results were replicated in the second study with more complex Kanji characters. In addition, the critical field size decreased as pattern complexity decreased. We propose a three component model of pattern perception. In the first stage a representation of the stimulus must be constructed by the subject, and restricting of the visual field interferes dramatically with this component when stimuli are unfamiliar. With increased familiarity, subjects become able to reconstruct a previous representation from very small, unique segments of the pattern, analogous to the informativeness areas hypothesized by Loftus and Mackworth [J. Exp. Psychol., 4 (1978) 565].

  2. Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleppin, H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).

  3. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed - the role of storm temporal patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2018-03-01

    The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1) How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2) Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081-2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results also show that regional

  4. Climate change and farmers’ cropping patterns in Cemoro watershed area, Central Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

    2018-03-01

    Cropping pattern applied by farmers is usually based on the availability of water. Farmers cultivate rice when water is available. If it is unavailable, farmers will choose to plant crops that need less water. Climate change greatly affects to farmers in determining the cropping pattern as it alters the rainfall pattern and distribution in the region. This condition requires farmers to adjust the cropping pattern so that they can do the farming successfully. This study aims to examine the application of cropping patterns applied by the farmers in the Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia. Descriptive analysis approach is employed in this research. The results showed that farmers’ cropping pattern is not based on the availability of water. However, it adopts a habit that has been practiced since long time ago or just adopt others farmer's habit. The cropping pattern applied by irrigated paddy farmers in Cemoro watershed area consists of two types: rice-rice-rice and rice-rice-secondary crops. Among those two types, most farmers apply the rice-rice-rice pattern. Meanwhile, there are three cropping patterns applied in the rain-land, namely rice-rice-rice, rice-rice-secondary crop, and rice-rice-fallow. The majority of farmers apply the second pattern (rice-rice-secondary crops). It was also found that farmers’ cropping pattern was not in accordance with the recommendation of the local government.

  5. The Changing Pattern of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph O Falkinham

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Nontuberculous mycobacteria are human opportunistic pathogens whose source of infection is the environment. These include both slow-growing (eg, Mycobacterium kansasii and Mycobacterium avium and rapid-growing (eg, Mycobacterium abscessus and Mycobacterium fortuitum species. Transmission is through ingestion or inhalation of water, particulate matter or aerosols, or through trauma. The historic presentation of pulmonary disease in older individuals with predisposing lung conditions and in children has been changing. Pulmonary disease in elderly individuals who lack the classic predisposing lung conditions is increasing. Pulmonary disease and hypersensitivity pneumonitis have been linked with occupational or home exposures to nontuberculous mycobacteria. There has been a shift from Mycobacterium scrofulaceum to M avium in children with cervical lymphadenitis. Further, individuals who are immunosuppressed due to therapy or HIV-infection are at a greatly increased risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial infection. The changing pattern of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is due in part to the ability of these pathogens to survive and proliferate in habitats that they share with humans, such as drinking water. The advent of an aging population and an increase in the proportion of immunosuppressed individuals suggest that the prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease will increase.

  6. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-09-06

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  7. Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

  8. Patterns and comparisons of human-induced changes in river flood impacts in cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Stephanie; Sharma, Ashish; Sisson, Scott A.

    2018-03-01

    In this study, information extracted from the first global urban fluvial flood risk data set (Aqueduct) is investigated and visualized to explore current and projected city-level flood impacts driven by urbanization and climate change. We use a novel adaption of the self-organizing map (SOM) method, an artificial neural network proficient at clustering, pattern extraction, and visualization of large, multi-dimensional data sets. Prevalent patterns of current relationships and anticipated changes over time in the nonlinearly-related environmental and social variables are presented, relating urban river flood impacts to socioeconomic development and changing hydrologic conditions. Comparisons are provided between 98 individual cities. Output visualizations compare baseline and changing trends of city-specific exposures of population and property to river flooding, revealing relationships between the cities based on their relative map placements. Cities experiencing high (or low) baseline flood impacts on population and/or property that are expected to improve (or worsen), as a result of anticipated climate change and development, are identified and compared. This paper condenses and conveys large amounts of information through visual communication to accelerate the understanding of relationships between local urban conditions and global processes.

  9. Interannual variations and future change of wintertime extratropical cyclone activity over North America in CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teng, Haiyan; Washington, Warren M.; Meehl, Gerald A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2008-06-15

    Climatology and interannual variations of wintertime extratropical cyclone frequency in CCSM3 twentieth century simulation are compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis during 1950-1999. CCSM3 can simulate the storm tracks reasonably well, although the model produces slightly less cyclones at the beginning of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks and weaker poleward deflection over the Pacific. As in the reanalysis, frequency of cyclones stronger than 980 hPa shows significant correlation with the Pacific/North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern over the Pacific region and with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Atlantic sector. Composite maps are constructed for opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the NAO and all anomalous patterns coincide with observed. One CCSM3 twenty-first century A1B scenario realization indicates there is significant increase in the extratropical cyclone frequency on the US west coast and decrease in Alaska. Meanwhile, cyclone frequency increases from the Great Lakes region to Quebec and decreases over the US east coast, suggesting a possible northward shift of the Atlantic storm tracks under the warmer climate. The cyclone frequency anomalies are closely linked to changes in seasonal mean states of the upper-troposphere zonal wind and baroclinicity in the lower troposphere. Due to lack of 6-hourly outputs, we cannot apply the cyclone-tracking algorithm to the other eight CCSM3 realizations. Based on the linkage between the mean state change and the cyclone frequency anomalies, it is likely a common feature among the other ensemble members that cyclone activity is reduced on the East Coast and in Alaska as a result of global warming. (orig.)

  10. Inactivity periods and postural change speed can explain atypical postural change patterns of Caenorhabditis elegans mutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukunaga, Tsukasa; Iwasaki, Wataru

    2017-01-19

    With rapid advances in genome sequencing and editing technologies, systematic and quantitative analysis of animal behavior is expected to be another key to facilitating data-driven behavioral genetics. The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a model organism in this field. Several video-tracking systems are available for automatically recording behavioral data for the nematode, but computational methods for analyzing these data are still under development. In this study, we applied the Gaussian mixture model-based binning method to time-series postural data for 322 C. elegans strains. We revealed that the occurrence patterns of the postural states and the transition patterns among these states have a relationship as expected, and such a relationship must be taken into account to identify strains with atypical behaviors that are different from those of wild type. Based on this observation, we identified several strains that exhibit atypical transition patterns that cannot be fully explained by their occurrence patterns of postural states. Surprisingly, we found that two simple factors-overall acceleration of postural movement and elimination of inactivity periods-explained the behavioral characteristics of strains with very atypical transition patterns; therefore, computational analysis of animal behavior must be accompanied by evaluation of the effects of these simple factors. Finally, we found that the npr-1 and npr-3 mutants have similar behavioral patterns that were not predictable by sequence homology, proving that our data-driven approach can reveal the functions of genes that have not yet been characterized. We propose that elimination of inactivity periods and overall acceleration of postural change speed can explain behavioral phenotypes of strains with very atypical postural transition patterns. Our methods and results constitute guidelines for effectively finding strains that show "truly" interesting behaviors and systematically uncovering novel gene

  11. Interfacial pattern changes of imprinted multilayered material in milli- and microscales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Kazuhiro; Tokumaru, Kazuki; Tsumori, Fujio

    2018-06-01

    Nanoimprint lithography (NIL) is a technique that transfers a mold pattern of nanometer order to the surface of a resist material by heating and pressing. NIL is an excellent technology in terms of high productivity, accuracy, and resolution. Recently, NIL has been applied to the processing of different multilayered materials, in which it is possible to process multiple materials simultaneously. In this processing of multilayered materials, it is possible to form an interfacial pattern between the upper layer and the lower layer simultaneously with patterning on the mold surface. This interface pattern can be controlled by the deformation characteristics, initial thickness, and so forth. In this research, we compared the interfacial pattern changes of imprinted multilayered materials in milli- and microscales. For multilayered imprint using multiple materials, it is important to know the flow of the resist and its dependence on the scale. If there is similarity in the relationship produced by the scale on the imprinted samples, a process design with a number of feedbacks could be realized. It also becomes easier to treat structures in the millimeter scale for the experiment. In this study, we employed micropowder imprint (µPI) for multilayered material imprint. A compound sheet of alumina powder and polymer binder was used for imprint. Two similar experiments in different scales, micro- and millimeter scales, were carried out. Results indicate that the interfacial patterns of micro- and millimeter-scale-imprinted samples are similar.

  12. Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garaboa-Paz, Daniel; Lorenzo, Nieves; Pérez-Muñuzuri, Vicente

    2017-05-01

    Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.

  13. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

    2005-11-17

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  14. Trade pattern change impact on industrial CO2 emissions in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jung-Hua; Huang, Yun-Hsun; Chen, Yen-Yin

    2007-01-01

    Input-output structural decomposition analysis (I-O SDA) is applied in this paper to analyze the sources of change in industrial CO 2 emissions in Taiwan from 1989 to 2001. Owing to the fact that Taiwan is an export-oriented, trade-dependent economy, the focus is on trade transformation over the past decade and its effect over industrial CO 2 emissions. Change in trade patterns has significantly impacted many aspects of the Taiwan economy, subsequently resulting in various influences on industrial CO 2 emissions, as shown by empirical analysis results. Change in export level increased industrial CO 2 emissions, above all other effects, by 72.1%. However, changes in export mix and import coefficients imposed effects of dragging down industrial CO 2 emissions by 5.7% and 11.7%, respectively. (author)

  15. Short-term changes in running mechanics and foot strike pattern after introduction to minimalistic footwear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willson, John D; Bjorhus, Jordan S; Williams, D S Blaise; Butler, Robert J; Porcari, John P; Kernozek, Thomas W

    2014-01-01

    Minimalistic footwear has garnered widespread interest in the running community, based largely on the premise that the footwear may reduce certain running-related injury risk factors through adaptations in running mechanics and foot strike pattern. To examine short-term adaptations in running mechanics among runners who typically run in conventional cushioned heel running shoes as they transition to minimalistic footwear. A 2-week, prospective, observational study. A movement science laboratory. Nineteen female runners with a rear foot strike (RFS) pattern who usually train in conventional running shoes. The participants trained for 20 minutes, 3 times per week for 2 weeks by using minimalistic footwear. Three-dimensional lower extremity running mechanics were analyzed before and after this 2-week period. Hip, knee, and ankle joint kinematics at initial contact; step length; stance time; peak ankle joint moment and joint work; impact peak; vertical ground reaction force loading rate; and foot strike pattern preference were evaluated before and after the intervention. The knee flexion angle at initial contact increased 3.8° (P < .01), but the ankle and hip flexion angles at initial contact did not change after training. No changes in ankle joint kinetics or running temporospatial parameters were observed. The majority of participants (71%), before the intervention, demonstrated an RFS pattern while running in minimalistic footwear. The proportion of runners with an RFS pattern did not decrease after 2 weeks (P = .25). Those runners who chose an RFS pattern in minimalistic shoes experienced a vertical loading rate that was 3 times greater than those who chose to run with a non-RFS pattern. Few systematic changes in running mechanics were observed among participants after 2 weeks of training in minimalistic footwear. The majority of the participants continued to use an RFS pattern after training in minimalistic footwear, and these participants experienced higher

  16. Limitations of BCC_CSM's ability to predict summer precipitation over East Asia and the Northwestern Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Gong, Zhiqiang; Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Qiao, Shaobo; Hu, Po; Feng, Guolin

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the ability of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to predict the meridional pattern of summer precipitation over East Asia-Northwest Pacific (EA-NWP) and its East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection

  17. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  18. The oil industry in Latin America: changing demand patterns and deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thaler, Harald.

    1997-02-01

    The Oil Industry in Latin America: changing demand patterns and deregulation analyses the common problems faced by countries in the region in modernising and developing their oil sectors, despite the great variation in domestic natural resources between them. It highlights areas of potential, as well as clearly indicating risks and possible bureaucratic and political problems. (author)

  19. Longitudinal Patterns of Change in Systolic Blood Pressure and Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petruski-Ivleva, Natalia; Viera, Anthony J; Shimbo, Daichi; Muntner, Paul; Avery, Christy L; Schneider, Andrea L C; Couper, David; Kucharska-Newton, Anna

    2016-06-01

    Elevated blood pressure in midlife contributes significantly to the risk of cardiovascular disease. However, patterns of blood pressure increase may differ among individuals and may result in differential risk. Our goal was to examine the contribution of longitudinal patterns of blood pressure change to incidence of heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease mortality. Latent class growth models were used to identify patterns of change in blood pressure across 4 clinical examinations (1987-1998) among 9845 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort participants (mean age, 53.7 [SD 5.7] years). Patterns of change in systolic blood pressure included slowly and steeply increasing, a decreasing and a sustained elevated blood pressure. Changes in diastolic and mid-blood pressure (½ systolic+½ diastolic) were less pronounced. The association of blood pressure pattern group membership with incidence of clinical outcomes was examined in follow-up from the fourth clinical examination (1996-1998) to December 31, 2011, using Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic and metabolic characteristics, and hypertension medication use. A gradient of rates of all events was observed across the identified patterns. Associations were attenuated after adjustment for covariates. Cumulative systolic blood pressure load, rather than the temporal pattern of change in systolic blood pressure itself, plays a role in determining the risk of cardiovascular disease, in particular, of heart failure and cardiovascular disease mortality, independent of blood pressure level measured at one point in time. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed – the role of storm temporal patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hettiarachchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The effects of climate change are causing more frequent extreme rainfall events and an increased risk of flooding in developed areas. Quantifying this increased risk is of critical importance for the protection of life and property as well as for infrastructure planning and design. The updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Atlas 14 intensity–duration–frequency (IDF relationships and temporal patterns are widely used in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling for design and planning in the United States. Current literature shows that rising temperatures as a result of climate change will result in an intensification of rainfall. These impacts are not explicitly included in the NOAA temporal patterns, which can have consequences on the design and planning of adaptation and flood mitigation measures. In addition there is a lack of detailed hydraulic modeling when assessing climate change impacts on flooding. The study presented in this paper uses a comprehensive hydrologic and hydraulic model of a fully developed urban/suburban catchment to explore two primary questions related to climate change impacts on flood risk. (1 How do climate change effects on storm temporal patterns and rainfall volumes impact flooding in a developed complex watershed? (2 Is the storm temporal pattern as critical as the total volume of rainfall when evaluating urban flood risk? We use the NOAA Atlas 14 temporal patterns, along with the expected increase in temperature for the RCP8.5 scenario for 2081–2100, to project temporal patterns and rainfall volumes to reflect future climatic change. The model results show that different rainfall patterns cause variability in flood depths during a storm event. The changes in the projected temporal patterns alone increase the risk of flood magnitude up to 35 %, with the cumulative impacts of temperature rise on temporal patterns and the storm volume increasing flood risk from 10 to 170 %. The results

  1. Rotation and scale change invariant point pattern relaxation matching by the Hopfield neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Nong; Zhang, Tianxu

    1997-12-01

    Relaxation matching is one of the most relevant methods for image matching. The original relaxation matching technique using point patterns is sensitive to rotations and scale changes. We improve the original point pattern relaxation matching technique to be invariant to rotations and scale changes. A method that makes the Hopfield neural network perform this matching process is discussed. An advantage of this is that the relaxation matching process can be performed in real time with the neural network's massively parallel capability to process information. Experimental results with large simulated images demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the method to perform point patten relaxation matching invariant to rotations and scale changes and the method to perform this matching by the Hopfield neural network. In addition, we show that the method presented can be tolerant to small random error.

  2. Development of passive and active microprism arrays to change the radiation pattern of solid-state lighting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chih-Chun; Ting, Yi-Shuo; Fang, Weileun

    2012-01-01

    This study implements a compact solid-state lighting chip with changeable illumination map as well as radiation pattern. The lighting chip consists of a microprism array, light-emitting diode (LED) chip and Si carrier. The polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) and polymer-dispersed liquid crystal (PDLC) layers are respectively employed to implement the passive and active microprism arrays. The specific radiation pattern can be defined by the shape of the passive PDMS-microprism. Moreover, by using the scattering and transmitting modes of the PDLC layer, the PDLC-microprism enables the changing of light shaping by applying voltage. Thus, the radiation pattern can be changed by the driving voltage on the PDLC layer, and the deformable and movable micro optical components are not required. This study has established the low-temperature fabrication and packaging processes to realize the lighting chip, and the damage of the PDMS and PDLC material is prevented. Typical dimensions of the PDMS lighting chip are 5 mm wide, 6 mm long and 1 mm thick, and The PDLC lighting chip is 550 µm thick. The measurement results show that the PDMS-microprism array can change the radiation pattern from a 70° half-maximum viewing angle to 52° and 40° half-maximum viewing angles on two orthogonal axes. In addition, the PDLC-microprism array can change the radiation pattern from 51° and 43° half-maximum viewing angles at 0 V (i.e. scattering mode) to 48° and 33° half-maximum viewing angles at 100 V (i.e. transmitting mode). (paper)

  3. Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.

    2010-01-01

    The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

  4. Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C.

    2007-11-01

    Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.

  5. Structurally controlled 'teleconnection' of large-scale mass wasting (Eastern Alps)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostermann, Marc; Sanders, Diethard

    2015-04-01

    kilometers - from the Brenner Pass area located along the crestline of the Alps to mount Zugspitze near the northern fringe of the Northern Calcareous Alps. Major fault zones and intercalated rigid blocks thus can 'teleconnect' zones of preferred mass-wasting over large lateral distances in orogens. Reference: Prager, C., Zangerl, C., Patzelt, G., Brandner, R., 2008. Age distribution of fossil landslides in the Tyrol (Austria) and its surrounding areas. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 8, 377-407.

  6. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  7. Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function – Part 2: An application to El Niño

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Yiou

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure is often studied to determine the regions of high variability or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual methods to find spatial patterns, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA, are constrained by linear symmetries, the dependence of variables such as temperature or pressure at different locations is generally nonlinear. In particular, large deviations from the sample mean are expected to be strongly affected by such nonlinearities. Here we apply a newly developed nonlinear technique (Maxima of Cumulant Function, MCF for detection of typical spatial patterns that largely deviate from the mean. In order to test the technique and to introduce the methodology, we focus on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and its spatial patterns. We find nonsymmetric temperature patterns corresponding to El Niño and La Niña, and we compare the results of MCF with other techniques, such as the symmetric solutions of PCA, and the nonsymmetric solutions of Nonlinear PCA (NLPCA. We found that MCF solutions are more reliable than the NLPCA fits, and can capture mixtures of principal components. Finally, we apply Extreme Value Theory on the temporal variations extracted from our methodology. We find that the tails of the distribution of extreme temperatures during La Niña episodes is bounded, while the tail during El Niños is less likely to be bounded. This implies that the mean spatial patterns of the two phases are asymmetric, as well as the behaviour of their extremes.

  8. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, Patricia J; Vanak, Abi T; Muggeo, Vito M R; Ferreira, Salamon M; Slotow, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana), in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009). Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or other extrinsic shifts in ecological studies, rather than arbitrarily fixed definitions

  9. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia J Birkett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana, in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009. Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or

  10. Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Benčoková, A.; Krám, P.; Hruška, Jakub

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 1 (2011), s. 1-15 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : climate change impact * flow pattern * regional climate scenarios * Headwater catchments * hydrological modelling * Broo90 Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 1.994, year: 2011

  11. Psychological stress exposure to aged mice causes abnormal feeding patterns with changes in the bout number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Chihiro; Mogami, Sachiko; Hattori, Tomohisa

    2017-11-09

    Stress responses are affected by aging. However, studies on stress-related changes in feeding patterns with aging subject are minimal. We investigated feeding patterns induced by two psychological stress models, revealing characteristics of stress-induced feeding patterns as "meal" and "bout" (defined as the minimum feeding behavior parameters) in aged mice. Feeding behaviors of C57BL/6J mice were monitored for 24 h by an automatic monitoring device. Novelty stress reduced the meal amount over the 24 h in both young and aged mice, but as a result of a time course study it was persistent in aged mice. In addition, the decreased bout number was more pronounced in aged mice than in young mice. The 24-h meal and bout parameters did not change in either the young or aged mice following water avoidance stress (WAS). However, the meal amount and bout number increased in aged mice for 0-6 h after WAS exposure but remained unchanged in young mice. Our findings suggest that changes in bout number may lead to abnormal stress-related feeding patterns and may be one tool for evaluating eating abnormality in aged mice.

  12. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  13. Circulation pattern-based assessment of projected climate change for a catchment in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Jódar, Jorge; Carrera, Jesús

    2018-01-01

    We present an approach for evaluating catchment-scale hydro-meteorological impacts of projected climate change based on the atmospheric circulation patterns (ACPs) of a region. Our approach is motivated by the conjecture that GCMs are especially good at simulating the atmospheric circulation patterns that control moisture transport, and which can be expected to change in response to global warming. In support of this, we show (for the late 20th century) that GCMs provide much better simulations of ACPs than those of precipitation amount for the Upper Guadiana Basin in central Spain. For the same period, four of the twenty GCMs participating in the most recent (5th) IPCC Assessment provide quite accurate representations of the spatial patterns of mean sea level pressure, the frequency distribution of ACP type, the 'number of rainy days per month', and the daily 'probability of rain' (they also reproduce the trend of 'wet day amount', though not the actual magnitudes). A consequent analysis of projected trends and changes in hydro-climatic ACPology between the late 20th and 21st Centuries indicates that (1) actual changes appear to be occurring faster than predicted by the models, and (2) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) the expected decline in precipitation volume is associated mainly with a few specific ACPs (primarily directional flows from the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabric Sea), and with decreasing probability of rain (linked to increasing temperatures) rather than wet day amount. Our approach is a potentially more insightful alternative for catchment-scale climate impacts assessments than the common approach of statistical downscaling and bias correction.

  14. Mapping patterns of change in emotion-focused psychotherapy: Implications for theory, research, practice, and training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jeanne C

    2018-05-01

    An important objective in humanistic-experiential psychotherapies and particularly emotion-focused psychotherapy (EFT) is to map patterns of change. Effective mapping of the processes and pathways of change requires that in-session processes be linked to in-session resolutions, immediate post-session changes, intermediate outcome, final therapy outcome, and longer-term change. This is a challenging and long-term endeavour. Fine-grained descriptions of in-session processes that lead to resolution of specific interpersonal and intrapersonal issues linked with longer-term outcomes are the foundation of EFT, the process-experiential approach. In this paper, evidence in support of EFT as a treatment approach will be reviewed along with research on two mechanisms of change, viewed as central to EFT, clients' emotional processing and the therapeutic relationship conditions. The implications for psychotherapy research are discussed. Given the methodological constraints, there is a need for more innovative methodologies and strategies to investigate specific psychotherapy processes within and across different approaches to map patterns and mechanisms of change to enhance theory, research, practice, and training.

  15. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

    2005-01-01

    Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

  16. Planktic foraminiferal responses to orbital scale oceanographic changes off the western Iberian margin over the last 900 kyr: Results from IODP site U1391

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A. D.; Verma, K.; Jaiswal, S.; Alonso-Garcia, M.; Li, B.; Abrantes, F.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents planktic foraminiferal assemblage records of the last 900 kyr from the SW Iberian margin (IODP Site U1391). The faunal records show the history of surface oceanographic changes on glacial/interglacial scales before and after the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE), a period when a major shift in the climate pattern was recorded in other regions. Temporal variations in relative abundances of characteristic species/groups are used to infer changes in the latitudinal position of the polar/Arctic water (% Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral and Turborotalita quinqueloba), influence of the transitional subpolar water mass (% N. pachyderma dextral), and subtropical water (% tropical/subtropical species/group). Past changes in the upwelling intensity and productivity pattern associated with seasonal trade wind strength are inferred from the abundance variations of Globigerina bulloides and G. bulloides + Globigerinita glutinata, respectively. Faunal data reveal the influence of cold water masses (polar/subpolar) at the examined site was more pronounced during glacial stages except for marine isotope stage (MIS) 14 and 16. The magnitude of the polar/subpolar water mass invading the study area was at maximum before the MBE during MIS 18, 20 and 22, resulting in a situation like the present day Arctic Front. Interglacial periods prior to the MBE were also relatively colder than those of the post-MBE. Our faunal based inferences are in agreement with the ice-rafted debris (IRD) concentration and N. pachyderma sinistral records of the subpolar North Atlantic sites. Based on faunal proxies, we recorded major and rapid changes in upwelling intensity and related productivity during glacial Terminations. Both the upwelling intensity and productivity significantly increased after the MBE, particularly during the interglacials MIS 7, 9 and 11. Our productivity record parallels the EPICA CH4 record suggesting teleconnections between trade winds induced productivity and the

  17. RS- and GIS-based study on landscape pattern change in the Poyang Lake wetland area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaoling; Li, Hui; Bao, Shuming; Wu, Zhongyi; Fu, Weijuan; Cai, Xiaobin; Zhao, Hongmei; Guo, Peng

    2006-10-01

    As wetland has been recognized as an important component of ecosystem, it is received ever-increasing attention worldwide. Poyang Lake wetlands, the international wetlands and the largest bird habitat in Asia, play an important role in biodiversity and ecologic protection. However, with the rapid economic growth and urbanization, landscape patterns in the wetlands have dramatically changed in the past three decades. To better understand the wetland landscape dynamics, remote sensing, geographic information system technologies, and the FRAGSTATS landscape analysis program were used to measure landscape patterns. Statistical approach was employed to illustrate the driving forces. In this study, Landsat images (TM and ETM+) from 1989 and 2000 were acquired for the wetland area. The landscapes in the wetland area were classified as agricultural land, urban, wetland, forest, grassland, unused land, and water body using a combination of supervised and unsupervised classification techniques integrated with Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Landscape indices, which are popular for the quantitative analysis of landscape pattern, were then employed to analyze the landscape pattern changes between the two dates in a GIS. From this analysis an understanding of the spatial-temporal patterns of landscape evolution was generated. The results show that wetland area was reduced while fragmentation was increased over the study period. Further investigation was made to examine the relationship between landscape metrics and some other parameters such as urbanization to address the driving forces for those changes. The urban was chosen as center to conduct buffer analysis in a GIS to study the impact of human-induced activities on landscape pattern dynamics. It was found that the selected parameters were significantly correlated with the landscape metrics, which may well indicate the impact of human-induced activities on the wetland landscape pattern dynamics and account for the driving

  18. Patterns of change: whose fingerprint is seen in global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hegerl, Gabriele; Zwiers, Francis; Tebaldi, Claudia

    2011-01-01

    Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These fingerprints characterize the geographical and vertical pattern of the expected changes caused by external influences, for example, greenhouse gas increases and changes in solar radiation, taking also into account how these forcings and their effects vary over time. These time–space fingerprints can be used to discriminate between observed climate changes caused by different external factors. Attribution assessments necessarily take the natural variability of the climate system into account as well, evaluating whether an observed change can be explained in terms of this internal variability alone, and estimating the contribution of this source of variability to the observed change. Hence the assessment that a large part of the observed recent warming is anthropogenic is based on a rigorous quantitative analysis of these joint drivers and their effects, and proceeds through a much more comprehensive and layered analysis than a comparison at face value of model simulations with observations.

  19. Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power

  20. Changing incidence patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma among age groups in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Giun-Yi; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Yen, Hsiu-Ju; Lee, Chih-Ying; Lin, Li-Yih

    2015-12-01

    This study examined and compared the incidence patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma among age groups in Taiwan, 30 years after a universal hepatitis B virus immunization program was launched. Data for hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed in 2003-2011 were collected from the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated to analyze and compare the changes in incidence rates and trends. More specific analyses were performed on four age groups separated by sex. A total of 82,856 patients were diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma in 2003-2011 in Taiwan, yielding an age-standardized incidence rate of 32.97 per 100,000 person-years. Hepatocellular carcinoma was predominantly diagnosed in middle-aged adults (50.1%) and elderly people (49.1%), in contrast to the low incidences in children (0.04%) and adolescents and young adults (0.8%). Striking variations in trends were found for children (annual percent change: -16.6%, 2003-2010) and adolescents and young adults (annual percent change: -7.9%, 2003-2011). The incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma in children decreased to zero in 2011; only a slight decline in trends occurred for the middle-aged group (annual percent change: -2%, 2003-2011), and a slight upward trend was observed for elderly people (1.3%), specifically in women (1.7%). In Taiwan, hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma was nearly eradicated in children in 2011. The findings on age-specific incidence patterns and trends of hepatocellular carcinoma suggest that different control strategies for treating this devastating disease in the future be made according to age. Copyright © 2015 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Microhabitat and Climatic Niche Change Explain Patterns of Diversification among Frog Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel S; Wiens, John J

    2017-07-01

    A major goal of ecology and evolutionary biology is to explain patterns of species richness among clades. Differences in rates of net diversification (speciation minus extinction over time) may often explain these patterns, but the factors that drive variation in diversification rates remain uncertain. Three important candidates are climatic niche position (e.g., whether clades are primarily temperate or tropical), rates of climatic niche change among species within clades, and microhabitat (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, arboreal). The first two factors have been tested separately in several studies, but the relative importance of all three is largely unknown. Here we explore the correlates of diversification among families of frogs, which collectively represent ∼88% of amphibian species. We assemble and analyze data on phylogeny, climate, and microhabitat for thousands of species. We find that the best-fitting phylogenetic multiple regression model includes all three types of variables: microhabitat, rates of climatic niche change, and climatic niche position. This model explains 67% of the variation in diversification rates among frog families, with arboreal microhabitat explaining ∼31%, niche rates ∼25%, and climatic niche position ∼11%. Surprisingly, we show that microhabitat can have a much stronger influence on diversification than climatic niche position or rates of climatic niche change.

  2. Impulsive sounds change European seabass swimming patterns: Influence of pulse repetition interval

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neo, Y.Y.; Ufkes, E.; Kastelein, R.A.; Winter, H.V.; Cate, C. ten; Slabbekoorn, H.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We exposed impulsive sounds of different repetition intervals to European seabass. • Immediate behavioural changes mirrored previous indoor & outdoor studies. • Repetition intervals influenced the impacts differentially but not the recovery. • Sound temporal patterns may be more important than some standard metrics. - Abstract: Seismic shootings and offshore pile-driving are regularly performed, emitting significant amounts of noise that may negatively affect fish behaviour. The pulse repetition interval (PRI) of these impulsive sounds may vary considerably and influence the behavioural impact and recovery. Here, we tested the effect of four PRIs (0.5–4.0 s) on European seabass swimming patterns in an outdoor basin. At the onset of the sound exposures, the fish swam faster and dived deeper in tighter shoals. PRI affected the immediate and delayed behavioural changes but not the recovery time. Our study highlights that (1) the behavioural changes of captive European seabass were consistent with previous indoor and outdoor studies; (2) PRI could influence behavioural impact differentially, which may have management implications; (3) some acoustic metrics, e.g. SEL cum , may have limited predictive power to assess the strength of behavioural impacts of noise. Noise impact assessments need to consider the contribution of sound temporal structure

  3. An Analysis on change of household electricity demand pattern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Na, In Gang [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    The object of this study is to analyze the behavioral pattern change of household electricity demand. Through the cross section analysis using materials from the energy total research report, the change in income elasticity of household electricity demand was studied. In this study, two methodologies were used. Firstly, it was shown that the effect of an income variable was very significant with a positive value in simultaneous equations model using exponential equations of electrical appliances holding. Cross section income effect showed a various distribution according to the season or income level. Overall, it was calculated at 0.111 when the appliances are fixed and 0.432 when even appliances are changed. Secondly, using a choice convenient correction model, it is resulted that lambda, the choice convenient correction factor, has a positive value and is statistically significant. In 1996, income elasticity of electricity demand for households with air-conditioning was 0.305 and for households without air-conditioning was 0.172. Income elasticity of households with air-conditioning is increasing as time goes by while income elasticity of households without air-conditioning is decreasing. (author). 32 refs., 35 tabs.

  4. Detecting changes in riparian habitat conditions based on patterns of greenness change: a case study from the upper San Pedro River Basin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Bruce Jones; Curtis E. Edmonds; E. Terrance Slonecker; James D. Wickham; Anne C. Neale; Timothy G. Wade; Kurt H. Riitters; William G. Kepner

    2008-01-01

    Healthy riparian ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions exhibit shifting patterns of vegetation in response to periodic flooding. Their conditions also depend upon the amount of grazing and other human uses. Taking advantage of these system properties, we developed and tested an approach that utilizes historical Landsat data to track changes in the patterns...

  5. Changes in spatiotemporal land use patterns in selected hydrogeomorphic areas of China and the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Differences exist in land use/cover pattern and its change between the P. R. China and the USA. In order to describe those differences, land use changes in representative regions were quantitatively analyzed and compared. Xiamen City, Changzhutan region and Liupan Mountains regions were selected to ...

  6. Temperature-Driven Change in the Unstable Growth Mode on Patterned GaAs(001)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tadayyon-Eslami, T.; Phaneuf, R. J.; Kan, H.-C.; Calhoun, L. C.

    2006-01-01

    We observe a dramatic change in the unstable growth mode during GaAs molecular beam epitaxy on patterned GaAs(001) as the temperature is lowered through approximately 540 deg. C, roughly coincident with the preroughening temperature. Observations of the As 2 flux dependence, however, rule out thermodynamic preroughening as driving the growth mode change. Similar observations rule out the change in surface reconstruction as the cause. Instead, we find evidence that the change in the unstable growth mode can be explained by a competition between the decreased adatom collection rate on small terraces and a small anisotropic barrier to adatom diffusion downward across step bunches

  7. Change commitment in low-status merger partners: The role of information processing, relative ingroup prototypicality, and merger patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Miriam; Kavanagh, Eithne; Kounov, Pavel; Jarosz, Sywlia; Waldzus, Sven; Collins, Elizabeth C; Giessner, Steffen

    2017-09-01

    Merger announcements cause stress among employees, often leading to low change commitment, especially among employees from the lower-status merger partner. Such stress influences how deeply employees process merger-relevant information. Previous research examined how merger patterns that preserve versus change status differences impact merger support, but did not address how employees' information processing may influence this relationship. The current research addresses this gap through a scenario experiment, focusing on the low-status merger partner. The interplay between merger patterns and information processing was examined regarding employees' prototypicality claims in relation to merger support. Results suggest that an integration-equality merger pattern increases change commitment via prototypicality claims in the new organization, conditional to employees' systematic information processing. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Dietary patterns and longitudinal change in hip bone mineral density among older men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T S; Harrison, S; Judd, S; Orwoll, E S; Marshall, L M; Shannon, J; Langsetmo, L; Lane, N E; Shikany, J M

    2018-05-01

    Studying dietary patterns is often more informative than individual nutrients or foods. We found that a Prudent dietary pattern (rich in vegetables and fish) was associated with reduced loss of total hip BMD in older men. A Prudent dietary pattern may be a potential lifestyle strategy for minimizing bone loss. This study aimed to identify baseline dietary patterns using factor analysis in a cohort of older men and to evaluate whether the dietary patterns were associated with bone mineral density change (%ΔBMD) at the total hip and femoral neck over time. Participants (n = 4379; mean age 72.9 ± 5.5 years) were from the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) prospective cohort study and had dietary data collected at baseline (March 2000-April 2002) and BMD measured at baseline and Visit 2 (March 2005-May 2006). Dietary intake was assessed with a brief Block food frequency questionnaire (FFQ); factor analysis was used to derive dietary patterns. BMD was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA); %ΔBMD was calculated from baseline to Visit 2. We used generalized linear regression to estimate least square (LS) means of %ΔBMD in quartiles of the dietary pattern scores adjusted for potential confounding factors. Two major dietary patterns were derived: Prudent (abundant in vegetables, salad, and non-fried fish) and Western (rich in hamburger, fries, processed meats, cheese, and sweets/desserts). There was an inverse association between adherence to the Prudent pattern and total hip %ΔBMD (p-trend = 0.028 after adjusting for age and clinical site; p-trend = 0.033 after further adjustment for smoking, calcium supplement use, diabetes, hypertension, and total energy intake). No other consistent associations between dietary patterns and %ΔBMD were observed. Greater adherence to a Prudent dietary pattern may attenuate total hip BMD loss (%ΔBMD) in older men.

  9. Changes in Handset Performance Measures due to Spherical Radiation Pattern Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper Ødum; Pedersen, Gert Frølund

    An important characteristic of a mobile handset is its ability to receive and transmit power. One way to characterize the performance of a handset in this respect is to use measurements of the spherical radiation pattern from which the total radiated power (TRP), total isotropic sensitivity (TIS)...... with respect to the environment. Standard deviations up to about 0.5dB and a maximum deviation of about 1.6dB were found....... in the performance measures are investigated for both the GSM-900 and the GSM-1800 band. Despite the deliberately large deviations from the reference position, the changes in TRP and TIS are generally within ±0.5dB with a maximum of about 1.4dB. For the MEG values the results depend on the orientation of the handset...... system that may introduce errors in standardized performance measurements. Radiation patterns of six handsets have been measured while they were mounted at various offsets from the reference position defined by the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association (CTIA) certification. The change...

  10. The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

    2017-10-01

    A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative

  11. The traditional Japanese dietary pattern and longitudinal changes in cardiovascular disease risk factors in apparently healthy Japanese adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Kaijun; Momma, Haruki; Kobayashi, Yoritoshi; Guan, Lei; Chujo, Masahiko; Otomo, Atsushi; Ouchi, Eriko; Nagatomi, Ryoichi

    2016-02-01

    Few epidemiological studies have assessed the relationship between the traditional Japanese dietary pattern and longitudinal changes in cardiovascular disease risk factors among Japanese people. We designed a 3-year longitudinal study of 980 subjects living in Japan to evaluate how the Japanese dietary pattern is related to longitudinal changes in well-recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease among apparently healthy Japanese adults. Dietary consumption was assessed via a validated food frequency questionnaire. Principal component analysis was used to derive three major dietary patterns-"Japanese," "sweets-fruits-cooked wheaten food," and "Izakaya (Japanese Pub)" from 39 food groups. After adjustment for potential confounders, the mean (95% confidence interval) for the change per year in diastolic blood pressure for men, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure for women related to the "Japanese" dietary pattern factor score tertiles were 0.89 (0.10, 1.68), 2.25 (0.19, 4.31), and 0.75 (-1.00, 2.50) for the lowest tertile, 0.77 (-0.02, 1.56), 1.01 (-1.13, 3.15), and 0.44 (-1.38, 2.26) for the middle tertile and - 0.04 (-0.81, 0.72), -0.48 (-2.52, 1.56), and -0.77 (-2.51, 0.96) for the highest tertile (trend P value = 0.03, pattern factor score tertiles and the longitudinal change in serum triglyceride concentration only in men (trend P value = 0.02). Greater adherence to a traditional Japanese diet was independently related to a decreased change every year in diastolic blood pressure in men and women and in systolic blood pressure in women over a 3-year follow-up period. The findings suggest that the "Japanese" dietary pattern appeared to be related to a fall in blood pressure, which might have a beneficial effect on cardiovascular disease. A randomized trial is required to clarify the underlying mechanism.

  12. Effect of climate change on crop production patterns with implications to transport flows and inland waterways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    This project analyzed the demand for transportation capacity and changes in transportation flows on : inland waterways due to shifts in crop production patterns induced by climate change. Shifts in the crop : production mix have been observed in rece...

  13. Changes in gluteal muscle forces with alteration of footstrike pattern during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannatta, Charles Nathan; Kernozek, Thomas W; Gheidi, Naghmeh

    2017-10-01

    Gait retraining is a common form of treatment for running related injuries. Proximal factors at the hip have been postulated as having a role in the development of running related injuries. How altering footstrike affects hip muscles forces and kinematics has not been described. Thus, we aimed to quantify differences in hip muscle forces and hip kinematics that may occur when healthy runners are instructed to alter their foot strike pattern from their habitual rear-foot strike to a forefoot strike. This may gain insight on the potential etiology and treatment methods of running related lower extremity injury. Twenty-five healthy female runners completed a minimum of 10 running trials in a controlled laboratory setting under rear-foot strike and instructed forefoot strike conditions. Kinetic and kinematic data were used in an inverse dynamic based static optimization to estimate individual muscle forces during running. Within subject differences were investigated using a repeated measures multi-variate analysis of variance. Peak gluteus medius and minimus and hamstring forces were reduced while peak gluteus maximus force was increased when running with an instructed forefoot strike pattern. Peak hip adduction, hip internal rotation, and heel-COM distance were also reduced. Therefore, instructing habitual rearfoot strike runners to run with a forefoot strike pattern resulted in changes in peak gluteal and hamstring muscle forces and hip kinematics. These changes may be beneficial to the development and treatment of running related lower extremity injury. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Examining patterns of change in the critical thinking skills of graduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, Maureen A; McMullen, William F

    2009-06-01

    Although critical thinking in undergraduate nursing education has been explored in depth, little is known about the critical thinking skills of graduate nursing students. Prior research on change in critical thinking scores is based primarily on pretest and posttest assessments that provide minimal information about change. This study used individual growth modeling to investigate how critical thinking skills change during a 2-year graduate nurse program. Scores from the evaluation, inference, and analysis subscales of the California Critical Thinking Skills Test comprised the empirical growth record. Change in the three critical thinking skills was more dynamic than that reported in previous studies. Patterns of change differed by critical thinking skill and in relation to students' initial critical thinking skill levels at program entry.

  15. Changing Adolescent Sleep Patterns: Factors Affecting them and the Related Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Harpreet; Bhoday, Harpreet Singh

    2017-03-01

    Sleep affects physical growth, behavior and emotional development besides determining cognitive functioning, learning and attention especially of a growing child. Adolescence represents one of the critical transitions in the life span and is characterized by a tremendous pace in growth and change that is second only to that of infancy. Adolescent sleep patterns deserve particular attention because of the potential impact on school performance. Average sleep period in adolescents is reduced during school days to around seven hours. The reasons may be biological mainly the sleep phase delay or psychosocial and environmental. These include academic demands, social activities, sports, internet, television viewing, part-time employment, and use of mobile phone at night, peer and parental influence and socioeconomic status. These changing patterns of sleep in adolescents lead to many behavioral sleep problems like Delayed Sleep-phase Syndrome; Difficulties in falling asleep (insomnia); excessive daytime sleepiness, poor academic performance. Decreased sleep in adolescents also causes obesity and other cardio-metabolic abnormalities. This needs an integrated approach involving adolescents themselves, their parents, teachers and specialized physicians to help improve the sleep quantity and quality and lead to a better quality of life and daytime functioning in adolescents. © Journal of the Association of Physicians of India 2011.

  16. Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lapp, S.

    2008-01-01

    Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

  17. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meghan J Skaer Thomason

    Full Text Available It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented, seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  18. Possible Role of Hadley Circulation Strengthening in Interdecadal Intensification of Snowfalls Over Northeastern China Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Botao; Wang, Zunya; Shi, Ying

    2017-11-01

    This article revealed that strengthening of winter Hadley circulation in the context of climate change may partially contribute to interdecadal increasing of snowfall intensity over northeastern China in recent decades. This hypothesis is well supported by the process-based linkage between Hadley circulation and atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region on the interdecadal time scale. The strengthening of winter Hadley circulation corresponds to a weakening of the Siberian high, an eastward shifting of the Aleutian low, a reduction of the East Asian trough, and anomalous southwesterly prevailing over northeastern China. These atmospheric situations weaken the East Asian winter monsoon and lead to an increase of air temperature over northeastern China. Increased local evaporation due to the increase of air temperature, concurrent with more water vapor transported from the Pacific Ocean, can significantly enhance atmospheric water vapor content in the target region. Meanwhile, the ascending of airflows is also strengthened over northeastern China. All of these provide favorable interdecadal backgrounds for the occurrence of intense snowfalls, and thus, snowfall intensity is intensified over northeastern China after the 1980s. Further analysis suggests that the circum-Pacific-like teleconnection pattern may play an important role in connecting Hadley circulation strengthening signal and atmospheric circulation anomalies favoring interdecadal intensification of snowfalls over northeastern China.

  19. Local processes and regional patterns - Interpreting a multi-decadal altimetry record of Greenland Ice Sheet changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Babonis, G. S.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van der Veen, C. J.; Khan, S. A.; Porter, D. F.

    2016-12-01

    This study presents a new, comprehensive reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes, generated using the Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) approach. 35-year long elevation-change time series (1980-2015) were obtained at more than 150,000 locations from observations acquired by NASA's airborne and spaceborne laser altimeters (ATM, LVIS, ICESat), PROMICE laser altimetry data (2007-2011) and a DEM covering the ice sheet margin derived from stereo aerial photographs (1970s-80s). After removing the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the elastic crustal response to changes in ice loading, the time series were partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics and then converted into mass change histories. Using gridded products, we examined ice sheet elevation, and mass change patterns, and compared them with other estimates at different scales from individual outlet glaciers through large drainage basins, on to the entire ice sheet. Both the SERAC time series and the grids derived from these time series revealed significant spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning, indicating the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing. To investigate the regional and local controls of ice dynamics, we examined thickness change time series near outlet glacier grounding lines. Changes on most outlet glaciers were consistent with one or more episodes of dynamic thinning that propagates upstream from the glacier terminus. The spatial pattern of the onset, duration, and termination of these dynamic thinning events suggest a regional control, such as warming ocean and air temperatures. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. We use statistical methods, such as principal

  20. Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyers, Steven D.; Melsom, Arne; Mitchum, Gary T.; O'Brien, James J.

    1998-11-01

    Previous analyses of the ocean state along the western American coast have often indicated unexpectedly slow and limited propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In contrast, theoretical and numerical ocean models demonstrate that these Kelvin waves are a rapid and long-range teleconnection between the low- and high-latitude Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting both the surface coastal currents and nutrient upwelling. Sea level variations along the western coast of North America are reexamined under the assumption that tropically forced Kelvin waves are produced in bursts of several months duration. A cross-correlation analysis, restricted to mid-1982 to mid-1983, is performed between Galapagos Island and stations along western Central and North America. A coastally trapped Kelvin wave is revealed to propagate at a speed of 2-3 m s-1 from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian Island Chain. The observed phase speed agrees with the estimated speed of a Kelvin wave based on the average density profile of the ocean near the coast. Weaker El Niño events in 1986/1987 and 1991/1992 appear to contain a combination of this remote signal and local wind forcing. The wave propagation speed calculated from the spectral phase is shown to be sensitive to the presence of other (noise) processes in the observations. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a synthetic sea level data set that contains many of the essential features of the real sea level data. A relatively small level of red noise can give a 100% expected error in the estimated propagation speed. This suggests a new explanation for this important inconsistency within dynamical oceanography.

  1. Patterns of mechanical energy change in tetrapod gait: pendula, springs and work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewener, Andrew A

    2006-11-01

    Kinematic and center of mass (CoM) mechanical variables used to define terrestrial gaits are compared for various tetrapod species. Kinematic variables (limb phase, duty factor) provide important timing information regarding the neural control and limb coordination of various gaits. Whereas, mechanical variables (potential and kinetic energy relative phase, %Recovery, %Congruity) provide insight into the underlying mechanisms that minimize muscle work and the metabolic cost of locomotion, and also influence neural control strategies. Two basic mechanisms identified by Cavagna et al. (1977. Am J Physiol 233:R243-R261) are used broadly by various bipedal and quadrupedal species. During walking, animals exchange CoM potential energy (PE) with kinetic energy (KE) via an inverted pendulum mechanism to reduce muscle work. During the stance period of running (including trotting, hopping and galloping) gaits, animals convert PE and KE into elastic strain energy in spring elements of the limbs and trunk and regain this energy later during limb support. The bouncing motion of the body on the support limb(s) is well represented by a simple mass-spring system. Limb spring compliance allows the storage and return of elastic energy to reduce muscle work. These two distinct patterns of CoM mechanical energy exchange are fairly well correlated with kinematic distinctions of limb movement patterns associated with gait change. However, in some cases such correlations can be misleading. When running (or trotting) at low speeds many animals lack an aerial period and have limb duty factors that exceed 0.5. Rather than interpreting this as a change of gait, the underlying mechanics of the body's CoM motion indicate no fundamental change in limb movement pattern or CoM dynamics has occurred. Nevertheless, the idealized, distinctive patterns of CoM energy fluctuation predicted by an inverted pendulum for walking and a bouncing mass spring for running are often not clear cut, especially

  2. The 2015-16 El Niño - Birth, Evolution and Teleconnections from Scatterometer Observations of the Ocean Surface Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Lee, T.; Stiles, B. W.; Rodriguez, E.; Turk, J.; Haddad, Z. S.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015-16 El Niño is one of the strongest events observed during the modern instrumentation period, rivaling the two big ones observed by satellites during 1982-83 and 1997-98. Yet, the precipitation anomalies differ from the expectations that were based on these two events. While El Niño events have a significant impact on the entire Earth System, they are most easily visible in measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean winds near the surface. In fact, the signature eastward-blowing anomalous surface winds in the Western and Central Tropical Pacific are the pre-cursor and the main driver of the El Nino events. Here we use observations from NASA's RapidScat, EUMETSAT's ASCAT and also from collocated ECMWF analysis to monitor the evolution of the anomalous winds associated with the 2015-16 El Niño. To detect the El Nino signal, we first compute monthly means of the wind speed, wind components and wind convergence. We then perform a low-pass filter to extract the components of the larger-scale circulation and compute the 2015-2016 anomalies with respect to the corresponding months of 2014-2015. We find fast-evolving wind anomalies and relate them to the evolution of the SST field as depicted in the observations-based OSTIA product. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between the GPM-observed precipitation and the surface wind convergence observed by the scatterometers. El Niño is known to have basin to global scale teleconnections. In addition to the characterization of the changes in the tropical Pacific, we will also describe the associated changes in the North and South Pacific. In particular, a strong anticyclonic anomaly is observed in the north-eastern Pacific. This anomalous circulation is likely associated with the subsidence (divergent) region of a stronger-than-normal Hadley cell, leading to modification of the midlatitude storm tracks and the related precipitation anomalies. Furthermore, these

  3. The possible physical mechanism for the EAP–SR co-action

    KAUST Repository

    Gong, Zhiqiang

    2017-11-17

    The anomalous characteristics of summer precipitation and atmospheric circulation in the East Asia–West Pacific Region (EA–WP) associated with the co-action of East Asia/Pacific teleconnection–Silk Road teleconnection (EAP–SR) are investigated in this study. The compositions of EAP–SR phase anomalies can be expressed as pattern I (+ +), pattern II (+ −), pattern III (− −), and pattern IV (− +) using EAP and SR indices. It is found that the spatial distribution of summer precipitation anomalies in EA–WP corresponding to pattern I (III) shows a tripole structure in the meridional direction and a zonal dipole structure in the subtropical region, while pattern II (IV) presents a tripole pattern in meridional direction with compressed and continuous anomalies in the zonal direction over the subtropical region. The similar meridional and zonal structures are also found in the geopotential height anomalies at 500-hPa, as well as wind anomalies and moisture convergence at 850-hPa. Finally, a schematic mechanism for the EAP–SR co-action upon the summer precipitation in EA–WP is built: (1) Pattern I (III) exhibits that the negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over tropical East Pacific may cause the enhanced (weakened) convective activity dominating the West Pacific, trigger the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection and produce more (less) precipitation. Besides, the negative (positive) SST anomalies over the Indonesia Maritime Continent (IMC) may further weaken (strengthen) anomalous downward (upward) motion over the South China Sea (SCS), cause negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies at the middle troposphere and surrounding regions through the function of the tropical Hadley circulation. Then the negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies could motivate the positive (negative) EAP teleconnection through the northward propagation of wave-activity perturbation. Meanwhile, a positive (negative) geopotential

  4. Association of dietary patterns and weight change in rural older adults 75 years and older

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little is known about the relationship between weight change and dietary patterns (DP) in older adults, especially in those of advanced age (_75 years). We examined the association of DP with obesity and five-year weight change in community-dwelling older adults (n=270; mean±SD age: 78.6±3.9 years)....

  5. Associations Between Dietary Patterns and Longitudinal Quality of Life Changes in Colorectal Cancer Patients: The ColoCare Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigic, Biljana; Boeing, Heiner; Toth, Reka; Böhm, Jürgen; Habermann, Nina; Scherer, Dominique; Schrotz-King, Petra; Abbenhardt-Martin, Clare; Skender, Stephanie; Brenner, Hermann; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Syrjala, Karen; Jacobsen, Paul B; Schneider, Martin; Ulrich, Alexis; Ulrich, Cornelia M

    2018-01-01

    Quality of life (QoL) is an important clinical outcome in cancer patients. We investigated associations between dietary patterns and QoL changes in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. The study included 192 CRC patients with available EORTC QLQ-C30 data before and 12 months post-surgery and food frequency questionnaire data at 12 months post-surgery. Principal component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns. Multivariate regression models assessed associations between dietary patterns and QoL changes over time. We identified four major dietary patterns: "Western" dietary pattern characterized by high consumption of potatoes, red and processed meat, poultry, and cakes, "fruit&vegetable" pattern: high intake of vegetables, fruits, vegetable oils, and soy products, "bread&butter" pattern: high intake of bread, butter and margarine, and "high-carb" pattern: high consumption of pasta, grains, nonalcoholic beverages, sauces and condiments. Patients following a "Western" diet had lower chances to improve in physical functioning (OR = 0.45 [0.21-0.99]), constipation (OR = 0.30 [0.13-0.72]) and diarrhea (OR: 0.44 [0.20-0.98]) over time. Patients following a "fruit&vegetable" diet showed improving diarrhea scores (OR: 2.52 [1.21-5.34]. A "Western" dietary pattern after surgery is inversely associated with QoL in CRC patients, whereas a diet rich in fruits and vegetables may be beneficial for patients' QoL over time.

  6. Cerebral Activity Changes in Different Traditional Chinese Medicine Patterns of Psychogenic Erectile Dysfunction Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qi; Zhang, Peihai; Pan, Junjie; Li, Zhengjie; Liu, Jixin; Li, Guangsen; Qin, Wei; You, Yaodong; Yu, Xujun; Sun, Jinbo; Dong, Minghao; Gong, Qiyong; Guo, Jun; Chang, Degui

    2015-01-01

    Background. Pattern differentiation is the foundation of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED). This study aims to investigate the differences in cerebral activity in ED patients with different TCM patterns. Methods. 27 psychogenic ED patients and 27 healthy subjects (HS) were enrolled in this study. Each participant underwent an fMRI scan in resting state. The fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (fALFF) was used to detect the brain activity changes in ED patients with different patterns. Results. Compared to HS, ED patients showed an increased cerebral activity in bilateral cerebellum, insula, globus pallidus, parahippocampal gyrus, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), and middle cingulate cortex (MCC). Compared to the patients with liver-qi stagnation and spleen deficiency pattern (LSSDP), the patients with kidney-yang deficiency pattern (KDP) showed an increased activity in bilateral brainstem, cerebellum, hippocampus, and the right insula, thalamus, MCC, and a decreased activity in bilateral putamen, medial frontal gyrus, temporal pole, and the right caudate nucleus, OFC, anterior cingulate cortex, and posterior cingulate cortex (P emotion-related regions, including prefrontal cortex and cingulated cortex.

  7. Do changes in per capita consumption mirror changes in drinking patterns?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, R G; Suurvali, H M; Mann, R E

    2000-07-01

    The goal of this study was to examine how well per capita alcohol consumption figures derived from beverage sales data relate to changes over time in survey-based measures of drinking patterns. It was expected that strong associations would be found among these various measures of consumption. Data from 12 household surveys conducted in Ontario between 1977 and 1997 provided information on: percentages of drinkers; daily drinkers; those drinking five or more drinks at a sitting weekly; those reporting two or more alcohol-related harms; and average number of drinks per week. These variables were then correlated with per capita consumption. Significant correlations were found only between per capita consumption and percentage of daily drinkers, and between percentage of drinkers and average number of drinks per week. The relationship of per capita consumption to survey measures of drinking is weak. The absence of consistent associations over time between per capita consumption and survey measures may be attributable to the small number of available data points or to increases in unrecorded consumption. Further research is needed to verify and explain these results.

  8. Residual flow patterns and morphological changes along a macro- and meso-tidal coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Plater, Andrew James

    2017-11-01

    The hydrodynamic and residual transport patterns arising from oscillating tidal motion have important consequences for the transport of sediments, and for the evolution of the shoreline, especially under macro- and meso-tidal conditions. For many locations there are significant uncertainties about residual currents and sediment transport characteristics, and their possible influence on the morphological evolution of the coastline and on the character of the bed. Herein we use the coastline of SE England as a test case to investigate possible changes in residual currents, and residual transport patterns from neap to spring tide, the reciprocal interaction between residuals and the character of the bed, and the morphological evolution of the coastline at a century timescale. We found that in the long term the morphology of the system evolves toward a dynamic equilibrium configuration characterized by smaller, and spatially constant residual transport patterns. While the spatial distribution of residual currents maintains a similar trend during both neap and spring tide, during spring tide and for large areas residual currents switch between northerly and southerly directions, and their magnitude is doubled. Residual eddies develop in regions characterized by the presence of sand bars due to the interaction of the tide with the varying topography. Residual transport patterns are also computed for various sediment fractions, and based on the hydrodynamics and sediment availability at the bottom. We found that the distribution of sediments on the bed is significantly correlated with the intensity of residuals. Finally, the majority of long-term morphological changes tend to develop or augment sand banks features, with an increase in elevation and steepening of the bank contours.

  9. Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

    2013-12-01

    The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This

  10. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Chen, Yaning; Pan, Yingping; Li, Weihong

    2015-04-01

    We studied the drought patterns in the arid region of northwestern China between 1960 and 2010 using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The general evolution of drought was obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the continuous wavelet transform method. Additionally, relationships between rotated principal component time series (RPCs) and seven selected climate indices were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Four moisture-related spatial patterns (North Xinjiang, western South Xinjiang, Central Xinjiang, and the Hexi Corridor) were objectively defined by REOF analysis. These patterns are related to distinct geographical areas and are associated with distinct temporal variations. (2) The PDSI increased significantly in most regions of Xinjiang, while decreased in the eastern Hexi Corridor. The significant 4-8 year band is the major period band for the annual and seasonal PDSI derived. (3) The seasonal REOFs (RPCs) and EOFs (PCs) have consistent spatial distribution patterns with the annual REOF. The seasonal trends of PDSI are also the same as the annual PDSI trends, indicating space-time consistency between annual PDSI and seasonal PDSI. (4) The drought evolution in this region is affected by the area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, the changes of drought in South Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor may also be associated with the Tibetan Plateau High. Changes in drought pattern are expected to have a strong impact on the economic livelihood of the region, especially for agricultural production.

  11. Assessing urban context-induced change in individual activity travel patterns : case study of new railway station

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, T.A.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Ponjé, M.M.W.; Stams, A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2001-01-01

    Findings are reported of selective descriptive analyses that were conducted to examine whether the opening of a new railway station had induced any changes in the activity travel patterns of a panel of house holds. In particular, changes in choices related to trip generation, trip chaining,

  12. New drugs on the street: changing inner city patterns of illicit consumption

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Singer, Merrill

    2005-01-01

    .... 16, No. 1/2 2000. The journal is renumbered to start as Vol. 1, No. 1 2002. New Drugs on the Street: Changing Inner City Patterns of Illicit Consumption, edited by Merrill Singer, PhD (Vol. 4, No. 2, 2005). "ESSENTIAL READING for anyone in the drug use area who wants to be brought up-to-date on the current state of the field. This edited ...

  13. Novice medical students: individual patterns in the use of learning strategies and how they change during the first academic year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabry, Götz; Giesler, Marianne

    2012-01-01

    Adequate use of different learning strategies is one of the most important prerequisites of academic success. The actual use of learning strategies is the result of an interaction between individual and situational variables. Against this background we conducted a longitudinal study with first year medical students to investigate whether individuals show different patterns in their use of learning strategies and whether these patterns change during the first academic year. Medical students (N=175, 58% female) were surveyed three times in their first academic year regarding their use of learning strategies. A hierarchical cluster analysis (Ward) was conducted in order to identify groups of students with different patterns of learning strategies. We identified four different patterns in approaches to learning among novice medical students ("easy-going", "flexible", "problematic" and "hardworking" learners). Compared to their peers, the problematic learners had the worst final school grades. In addition changes in the use of learning strategies were identified, most of them occurred during the first term. Students start their academic studies with different patterns of learning strategies; the characteristics of these patterns change during the first academic year. Further research is necessary to better understand how individual and situational variables determine students' learning.

  14. Cerebral Activity Changes in Different Traditional Chinese Medicine Patterns of Psychogenic Erectile Dysfunction Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Pattern differentiation is the foundation of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED. This study aims to investigate the differences in cerebral activity in ED patients with different TCM patterns. Methods. 27 psychogenic ED patients and 27 healthy subjects (HS were enrolled in this study. Each participant underwent an fMRI scan in resting state. The fractional amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (fALFF was used to detect the brain activity changes in ED patients with different patterns. Results. Compared to HS, ED patients showed an increased cerebral activity in bilateral cerebellum, insula, globus pallidus, parahippocampal gyrus, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC, and middle cingulate cortex (MCC. Compared to the patients with liver-qi stagnation and spleen deficiency pattern (LSSDP, the patients with kidney-yang deficiency pattern (KDP showed an increased activity in bilateral brainstem, cerebellum, hippocampus, and the right insula, thalamus, MCC, and a decreased activity in bilateral putamen, medial frontal gyrus, temporal pole, and the right caudate nucleus, OFC, anterior cingulate cortex, and posterior cingulate cortex (P<0.005. Conclusions. The ED patients with different TCM patterns showed different brain activities. The differences in cerebral activity between LSSDP and KDP were mainly in the emotion-related regions, including prefrontal cortex and cingulated cortex.

  15. Effects of El Niño-driven changes in wind patterns on North Pacific albatrosses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, L H; Conners, M G; Hazen, E L; Bograd, S J; Antolos, M; Costa, D P; Shaffer, S A

    2016-06-01

    Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing increased travel speeds and mass gained during foraging trips. However, brooding albatrosses did not benefit from stronger winds during La Niña conditions, instead experiencing stronger cumulative headwinds and a smaller proportion of trips in tailwinds. Increased travel costs during brooding may contribute to the lower reproductive success observed in La Niña conditions. Furthermore, benefits of stronger winds in incubating habitat may explain the higher reproductive success of Laysan albatross during El Niño conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering habitat accessibility and cost of travel when evaluating the impacts of climate-driven habitat change on marine predators. © 2016 The Author(s).

  16. Changing fertility patterns and policies in the third world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcnicoll, G

    1992-01-01

    Different patterns of fertilty transition are apparent in developing countries. Theories of fertility decline are appropriate because demographic analysis has become situation specific rather than general. Pretransition fertility patterns and the onset of decline are provided. Fertility transition patterns are also supplied, including a regional overview for Latin America, east and Southeast Asia, South Asia, West Asia and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. The specialized cases of China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia, and Brazil are also presented. The fertility determinant models of Bongaarts, Davis and Blake, Hobcraft and Little, Ryder, and Henry are used as examples of proximate determinant models. Data collection was possible on a grand scale with contraceptive knowledge, attitudes, and practice (KAP) surveys and the World Fertility Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys. Criticism has focused on the scope of these surveys which provide at best proximate determinants and differentiate fertility by standard socioeconomic factors. Data are also obtained on small populations from piecing together records and from quasi-anthropological fieldwork. Historical demography relies on family reconstitution. Longitudinal studies are few in number. The largest and most effective fieldwork station is at Matlab in Bangladesh. Caldwell has provided anthropological methods applicable to fertility study and makes use of teamwork. In Latin America, fertility has fallen by 40% since the 1960s. Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Haiti have changed very little. Taiwan and South Korea provide examples of economic growth with equity in East and Southeast Asia. In heterogenous South Asia, decline has been slow and uneven. West Asia and North Africa have high fertility with the exception of Egypt which is in the early stages of transition. The smallest declines are found in sub-Saharan Africa, and are complicated by the AIDS epidemic.

  17. Long-term change of potential evapotranspiration over Southwest China and teleconnections with large-scale climate anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Chen, X.; Li, Y.; Chen, Z.

    2017-12-01

    bstract: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a sensitive factor for atmospheric and ecological systems over Southwest China which is characterized by intensive karst geomorphology and fragile environment. Based on daily meteorological data of 94 stations during 1961-2013, the spatiotemporal characteristics of PET are analyzed. The changing characteristics of local meteorological factors and large-scale climatic features are also investigated to explain the potential reasons for changing PET. Study results are as follows: (1) The high-value center of PET with a mean value of 1097 mm/a locates in the south mainly resulted from the regional climatic features of higher air temperature (TEM), sunshine duration (SSD) and lower relative humidity (RHU); and the low-value center of PET with a mean value of 831 mm/a is in the northeast primarily attributed to higher RHU and weaker SSD. (2) Annual PET decreases at -10.04 mm decade-1 before the year 2000 but increases at 50.65 mm decade-1 thereafter; and the dominant factors of PET change are SSD, RHU and wind speed (WIN), with the relative contributions of 33.29%, 25.42% and 22.16%, respectively. (3) The abrupt change of PET in 2000 is strongly dominated by large-scale climatic anomalies. The strengthened 850hPa geostrophic wind (0.51 ms-1 decade-1), weakened total cloud cover (-2.25 % decade-1) and 500hPa water vapor flux (-2.85 % decade-1) have provided advantageous dynamic, thermal and dry conditions for PET over Southwest China since the 21st century.

  18. Foreign body-induced changes in the reticular contraction pattern of sheep observed with M-mode ultrasonography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Morgado

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In the pre-experimental period of a clinical trial, an apparently clinically healthy sheep fitted with ruminal and abomasal cannulas showed changes in the reticular contraction pattern visualized in M-mode ultrasonogram. Radiographic examination revealed a blunt metal screw in its reticulum. By the time change in the reticular motility through the ultrasound examination was detected, the animal had still not expressed any behavioral changes. A description of the clinical case, follow-up of the findings and laboratory data, like white blood cell count, serum pepsinogen and fibrinogen concentrations, were presented. The foreign body was removed through the ruminal cannula and reticular contraction tended to normal. An association of the contraction pattern with measured clinical data was possible, leading to the conclusion that use of M-mode ultrasonography has a potential application in similar clinical situations.

  19. Changes in Bacterial Resistance Patterns of Pediatric Urinary Tract Infections and Rationale for Empirical Antibiotic Therapy

    OpenAIRE

    İbrahim Gökçe; Neslihan Çiçek; Serçin Güven; Ülger Altuntaş; Neşe Bıyıklı; Nurdan Yıldız; Harika Alpay

    2017-01-01

    Background: The causative agent spectrum and resistance patterns of urinary tract infections in children are affected by many factors. Aims: To demonstrate antibiotic resistance in urinary tract infections and changing ratio in antibiotic resistance by years. Study Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study. Methods: We analysed antibiotic resistance patterns of isolated Gram (-) bacteria during the years 2011-2014 (study period 2) in children with urinary tract infections. We...

  20. Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asoka, Akarsh; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Mishra, Vimal

    2017-01-01

    The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.

  1. Changes in gait pattern during multitask using smartphones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, SoYeong; Kim, ChoRong; Song, SunHae; Lee, GyuChang

    2015-01-01

    With the development of science and technology, smartphones have been deeply involved in people's everyday lives, and many perform various tasks simultaneously on smartphones. To investigate gait pattern changes on performing multitask simultaneously when using smartphones. Three tasks were performed by 26 healthy adults. In the first, participants were directed to walk without using smartphones (single-task). In the second, they were required to walk while finding applications (dual-task). Lastly, in addition to performing the second task, they were asked to listen to questions and answer them on their smartphone (triple-task). Spatiotemporal variables of gait and degree of lateral deviation during walking were measured. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the single-task and dual tasks, as well as between the single task and triple task in all variables (p smartphones in comparison to walking without using smartphones.

  2. Analysis of the effects of change in cropping pattern due to drought on saffron production in rural areas of the Zebarkhan district villages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamdollah Sojasi Qidari

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Selection of a given cropping pattern can have serious results on the farmers’ life and rural society because of the multi dimensionality of agriculture. However, in many cases, farmers are inclined to change the cropping pattern because of changes in natural situations, changes in demand and consumption, etc. One of the most important and effective factors of change cropping pattern amongst Iranian farmers in recent years is the drought problem. One of the more current cultural method changes in the Khorasan region is inclination to saffron cultivation that can have various economic, social and environmental effects. Thus, this research paid attention to the investigation of changes from cultivation method from drought to the economic, social and environmental dimensions of saffron production amongst the villagers of the Zebarkhan district of the Khorasan Razavi province. Analytical-description methodology was used for this purpose. Data collection was done using the library- field methodology with researcher’s questionnaire whose narrative is 0.78 according to Cronbach's alpha method. Therefore, by using the Cochran formula with the intended level of 0.05, 142 farmers have been selected by available sampling method that have changed their cropping pattern to saffron production because of water shortages and drought. Then, their ideas were analyzed considering cases of economic, social and environmental effects of cropping pattern change to saffron production. The results showed meaningful changes in all research indices except for increase of cultivation surface area. Moreover, the most important changes of cropping pattern and switching over to saffron production have been identified using the Shannon entropy weighing method. In addition, the shown the revealed with continuation of differences of the changes in cropping pattern of saffron between the various villages were analyzed by using the multi-index TOPSIS. Finally, it was shown

  3. Patterns of Change in Psychological Variables Leading up to Competition in Superior Versus Inferior Performers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boat, Ruth; Taylor, Ian M

    2015-06-01

    The study explored patterns of change in a number of potentially performance-related variables (i.e., fatigue, social support, self-efficacy, autonomous motivation, mental skills) during the lead-up to a competitive triathlon, and whether these patterns of change differed for relatively superior versus inferior performers. Forty-two triathletes completed an inventory measuring the study variables every other day during a 2-week period leading up to competition. Performance was assessed using participants' race time, and using a self-referenced relative score compared with personal best times. Multilevel growth curve analyses revealed significant differences in growth trajectories over the 2-week period in mental skills use, social support, and fatigue. The results provide novel insight into how athletes' fluctuating psychological state in the 2 weeks before competition may be crucial in determining performance.

  4. Patterned changes in urge ratings with tic suppression in youth with chronic tic disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brabson, Laurel A; Brown, Jessica L; Capriotti, Matthew R; Ramanujam, Krishnapriya; Himle, Michael B; Nicotra, Cassandra M; Ostrander, Rick; Kelly, Laura M; Grados, Marco A; Walkup, John T; Perry-Parrish, Carisa; Reynolds, Elizabeth K; Hankinson, Jessica C; Specht, Matt W

    2016-03-01

    Premonitory urges are central to emerging behavioral models of chronic tic disorders (CTD). Urge reduction has been proposed as a behavioral explanation for tic maintenance and exacerbation as well as the efficacy of behavioral treatments. Prior investigations have produced inconsistent findings despite common methodologies. The current study evaluated the possibility that data aggregation obscures distinct and meaningful patterns of change in urge ratings when tics are freely expressed versus suppressed. Participants (n = 12) included children with moderate-to-marked tic severity and noticeable premonitory urges. Tic frequencies and urge ratings were obtained at 15 s and 10-s intervals, respectively, across an alternating sequence of 10-min tic freely and 40-min tic suppression conditions. Patterns were established using a two step approach. Five distinct patterns of urge rating change emerged, suggesting data aggregation may obscure meaningful patterns in the urge-tic relationship when tics are completed versus suppressed. Eligibility criteria may have unintentionally excluded younger affected children and included older participants with more severe tic disorders than commonly seen. Additional research with less stringent eligibility criteria and a larger sample size will help validate the results. The relationship between urges and tics is much more complex than previously theorized. Investigations that rely on global assessments of urge and tic severity and/or assume uniformity when aggregating participant data may obscure meaningful differences in the urge-tic relationship. Future investigations should examine the possibility that individual differences and/or developmental considerations modulate the functional urge-tic relationship. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Changes in speckle patterns induced by load application onto an optical fiber and its possible application for sensing purpose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Makoto; Okumura, Jyun-ya; Hyuga, Akio

    2015-08-01

    Speckle patterns to be observed in an output light spot from an optical fiber are known to be changed due to external disturbances applied onto the optical fiber. In order to investigate possibilities of utilizing such changes in speckle patterns for sensing application, a certain load was applied onto a jacket-covered communication-grade multi-mode glass optical fiber through which laser beams emitted from a laser diode were propagating, and observed changes in speckle patterns in the output light spot from the optical fiber were investigated both as image data via a CCD camera and as an output voltage from a photovoltaic panel irradiated with the output light spot. The load was applied via a load application mechanism in which several ridges were provided onto opposite flat plates and a certain number of weights were placed there so that corrugated bending of the optical fiber was intentionally induced via load application due to the ridges. The obtained results showed that the number of speckles in the observed pattern in the output light spot as well as the output voltage from the photovoltaic panel irradiated with the output light spot showed decreases upon load application with relatively satisfactory repeatability. When the load was reduced, i.e., the weights were removed, the number of speckles then showed recovery. These results indicate there is a certain possibility of utilizing changes in speckle patterns for sensing of load application onto the optical fiber.

  6. Trend of cancer risk of Chinese inhabitants to dioxins due to changes in dietary patterns: 1980-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tao; Jiang, Wanyanhan; Ling, Zaili; Zhao, Yuan; Gao, Hong; Ma, Jianmin

    2016-02-01

    Food ingestion is a major route for human exposure and body burden to dioxins. We estimated the potential influence of changes in dietary patterns in Chinese population on human health risk to 2,3,7,8-TCDD (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin) over the last three decades. We performed multiple modeling scenario investigations to discriminate the contribution of 2,3,7,8-TCDD emissions and changes in dietary patterns to the cancer risks (CR) to dioxins. Results showed that changes in dietary patterns, featured by decreasing consumption of total grain (including all unprocessed grains) and vegetables and increasing intake of animal-derived foodstuffs, caused increasing CR from 7.3 × 10-8 in 1980 to 1.1 × 10-7 in 2009. Varying dietary patterns contributed 17% to the CR of Chinese population in 2009 under the fixed emission in 1980. The CR to 2,3,7,8-TCDD in urban and eastern China residents was higher considerably than those who lived in rural area and western China, attributable to higher emissions, household income, and greater intake of animal-derived foodstuffs in urban and eastern China inhabitants. On the other hand, more rapid increasing trend of the CR was found in rural residents due to their more rapid increase in the consumption of fat-dominated foods as compared with urban residents.

  7. Visual Learning Induces Changes in Resting-State fMRI Multivariate Pattern of Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Roberto; Del Gratta, Cosimo; Baldassarre, Antonello; Romani, Gian Luca; Corbetta, Maurizio

    2015-07-08

    When measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in the resting state (R-fMRI), spontaneous activity is correlated between brain regions that are anatomically and functionally related. Learning and/or task performance can induce modulation of the resting synchronization between brain regions. Moreover, at the neuronal level spontaneous brain activity can replay patterns evoked by a previously presented stimulus. Here we test whether visual learning/task performance can induce a change in the patterns of coded information in R-fMRI signals consistent with a role of spontaneous activity in representing task-relevant information. Human subjects underwent R-fMRI before and after perceptual learning on a novel visual shape orientation discrimination task. Task-evoked fMRI patterns to trained versus novel stimuli were recorded after learning was completed, and before the second R-fMRI session. Using multivariate pattern analysis on task-evoked signals, we found patterns in several cortical regions, as follows: visual cortex, V3/V3A/V7; within the default mode network, precuneus, and inferior parietal lobule; and, within the dorsal attention network, intraparietal sulcus, which discriminated between trained and novel visual stimuli. The accuracy of classification was strongly correlated with behavioral performance. Next, we measured multivariate patterns in R-fMRI signals before and after learning. The frequency and similarity of resting states representing the task/visual stimuli states increased post-learning in the same cortical regions recruited by the task. These findings support a representational role of spontaneous brain activity. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/359786-13$15.00/0.

  8. Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    Proxy data over tropical latitudes for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been interpreted as a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and so far linked to a mechanism analogous to the modern day “meridional-mode” in the Atlantic Ocean. Here we have explored alternative mechanisms, related to the direct impact of the LGM global changes in the dry static stability on tropical moist deep convection. We have used a coupled ocean-atmosphere model capable of capturing the thermodynamical structure of the atmosphere and the tropical component of the Hadley and Walker circulations. In each experiment, we have applied either all the LGM forcings, or the individual contributions of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentrations, ice sheet topography and/or albedo to explore the hydrological response over tropical latitudes with a focus on South America. The dominant forcing for the LGM tropical temperature and precipitation changes is found to be due to the reduced GHG, through the direct effect of reduced radiative heating (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). The LGM GHG is also responsible for increased extra-tropical static stability which strengthens the Hadley Cell. Stronger subsidence over northern tropics then produces an amplification of the northern tropics drying initially due to the direct cooling effect. The land ice sheet is also able to promote the Hadley cell feedback mostly via the topographic effect on the extra-tropical dry static stability and on the position of the subtropical jets. Our results therefore suggest that the communication between the extratropics and the tropics is tighter during LGM and does not necessarily rely on the “meridional-mode” mechanism. The Hadley cell response is constrained by the requirement that diabatic heating in the tropics balances cooling in subtropics. We show that such extratropics-tropics dependence is stronger at the LGM because of the stronger perturbation of northern extra tropical thermal and

  9. Antibiotic-Impregnated Central Venous Catheters Do Not Change Antibiotic Resistance Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnbull, Isaiah R; Buckman, Sara A; Horn, Christopher B; Bochicchio, Grant V; Mazuski, John E

    2018-01-01

    Antibiotic-impregnated central venous catheters (CVCs) decrease the incidence of infection in high-risk patients. However, use of these catheters carries the hypothetical risk of inducing antibiotic resistance. We hypothesized that routine use of minocycline and rifampin-impregnated catheters (MR-CVC) in a single intensive care unit (ICU) would change the resistance profile for Staphylococcus aureus. We reviewed antibiotic susceptibilities of S. aureus isolates obtained from blood cultures in a large urban teaching hospital from 2002-2015. Resistance patterns were compared before and after implementation of MR-CVC use in the surgical ICU (SICU) in August 2006. We also compared resistance patterns of S. aureus obtained in other ICUs and in non-ICU patients, in whom MR-CVCs were not used. Data for rifampin, oxacillin, and clindamycin were available for 9,703 cultures; tetracycline resistance data were available for 4,627 cultures. After implementation of MR-CVC use in the SICU, rifampin resistance remained unchanged, with rates the same as in other ICU and non-ICU populations (3%). After six years of use of MR-CVCs in the SICU, the rate of tetracycline resistance was unchanged in all facilities (1%-3%). The use of MR-CVCs was not associated with any change in S. aureus oxacillin-resistance rates in the SICU (66% vs. 60%). However, there was a significant decrease in S. aureus clindamycin resistance (59% vs. 34%; p resistance of S. aureus isolates to rifampin or tetracyclines.

  10. Checking, Sharing, Clicking and Linking: Changing patterns of news use between 2004 and 2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costera Meijer, I.; Groot Kormelink, T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper challenges the generally taken-for-granted automatic link between media platforms, media technology and news user practices. It explores what has changed in people’s news consumption by comparing patterns in news use between 2004–2005 and 2011–2014. While new, social and mobile media

  11. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  12. Changes in spatial patterns of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic drought gradient on the Inner Mongolian Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Li-Na; Guo, Hong-Yu; Gabler, Christopher A; Li, Qing-Fang; Ma, Cheng-Cang

    2015-01-01

    Few studies have investigated the influence of water availability on plant population spatial patterns. We studied changes in the spatial patterns of Caragana stenophylla along a climatic drought gradient within the Inner Mongolian Plateau, China. We examined spatial patterns, seed density, "nurse effects" of shrubs on seedlings, transpiration rates and water use efficiency (WUE) of C. stenophylla across semi-arid, arid, and intensively arid zones. Our results showed that patches of C. stenophylla populations shifted from a random to a clumped spatial pattern towards drier environments. Seed density and seedling survival rate of C. stenophylla decreased from the semi-arid zone to the intensively arid zone. Across the three zones, there were more C. stenophylla seeds and seedlings underneath shrub canopies than outside shrub canopies; and in the intensively arid zone, there were almost no seeds or seedlings outside shrub canopies. Transpiration rates of outer-canopy leaves and WUE of both outer-canopy and inner-canopy leaves increased from the semi-arid zone to the intensively arid zone. In the intensively arid zone, transpiration rates and WUE of inner-canopy leaves were significantly lower and higher, respectively, than those of outer-canopy leaves. We conclude that, as drought stress increased, seed density decreased, seed proportions inside shrubs increased, and "nurse effects" of shrubs on seedlings became more important. These factors, combined with water-saving characteristics associated with clumped spatial patterns, are likely driving the changes in C. stenophylla spatial patterns.

  13. Changing Pattern and Relation with Technological Level of the Korean and Japanese Export Competitiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongyul Kim

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to explore empirically whether export competitiveness of Korea and Japan has changed since 1990s. Unlike existing literature, we tried to grasp changing patterns of export competitiveness by new methodology such as belonging quadrant and moving direction, rather than simply showing its trend or comparison classified by industry. And we categorized 48 sectors into some technological levelsThe purpose of this paper is to explore empirically whether export competitiveness of Korea and Japan has changed since 1990s. Unlike existing literature, we tried to grasp changing patterns of export competitiveness by new methodology such as belonging quadrant and moving direction, rather than simply showing its trend or comparison classified by industry. And we categorized 48 sectors into some technological levels, then analyzed how the change of export competitiveness is distributed by each technological level. When seeing 'revealed comparative advantage' and 'trade specification index', we found considerable changes in export competitiveness. Competitiveness of Korea has rapidly improved while that of Japan has been continuously decreasing. Especially the gap of competitiveness between Korea and Japan has largely reduced around the midterm of 2000s. Shrinking of the gap in export competitiveness has begun from the latter half of 1990s and first half of 2000s. Change of export competitiveness shows different trend by technology level. Korea has gained more competitiveness than Japan in high and middle level of technology. Korea shows upward tendency of competitiveness in mid and high technology, while Japan in low technology. Competitiveness gap between Korea and Japan is rapidly decreasing since the late 1990s, and curtailment of the gap is mainly happening in the high level of technological capabilities.

  14. Temporal changes in spatial patterns of submersed macrophytes in two impounded reaches of the Upper Mississippi River, USA, 1998-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jager, Nathan R.; Yin, Yao

    2011-01-01

    We examined temporal changes in spatial patterns of submersed aquatic macrophytes during a recent three-fold increase in macrophyte abundance and in response to the cumulative effects of management actions (island construction and water level management) and changes in regional environmental conditions (turbidity) in two navigation pools of the Upper Mississippi River, Pool 8 (managed) and Pool 13 (unmanaged). We used cross-correlograms to quantify changes in the degree and range of spatial correlation between submersed macrophytes and depth across the impounded portions of the two pools from 1998-2009. Along with increases in abundance, we observed gradual expansion of submersed macrophytes into deeper water in both pools. However, we detected no temporal change in spatial patterns in Pool 13, where the range of spatial correlation was ~ 1500-2500 m in length in the downriver direction and ~ 500-1000 m in length in the crossriver direction. We initially detected similar ranges of spatial correlation in Pool 8, but over time the range of correlation in the cross river direction increased from ~ 500 m in 1998 to ~ 2000 m by 2009. Thus, the expansion of submersed macrophytes into deeper water areas in Pool 8 appears to have occurred in the cross-river direction and led to increases in patch size and a more symmetrical patch configuration. Hence, very similar temporal changes in submersed macrophyte abundance corresponded with different diffusion dynamics and spatial patterns in the two pools. We hypothesize that management actions altered spatial patterns of depth, water flow and/or wind fetch and led to the differences in spatial patterns reported here.

  15. How well do climate models simulate atmospheric teleconnctions over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunyong; Son, Hye-Young; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-02-01

    During the El Niño and La Niña mature phase, atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia vary considerably on sub-seasonal time scales, and are strongly phase-locked to the sub-seasonal evolution. In this study, we investigate how well climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate the sub-seasonal evolution of teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the observations, there is a prominent anticyclone anomaly over the Kuroshio extension region (i.e. Kuroshio anticyclone), which significantly affects East Asian climate in the early winter (November-December) of El Niño years. However, in January, the Kuroshio anticyclone suddenly disappears, and a cyclonic flow dominates over the North Pacific. It is found here that the CMIP5 models simulate the overall extratropical teleconnection patterns, but they fail to reproduce some of these sub-seasonally-varying features in atmospheric circulation. For example, the models tend to simulate a weaker Kuroshio anticyclone in the early winter during El Niño phases, and fail to capture the abrupt decay of the Kuroshio anticyclone in the late winter. We demonstrate here that these systematic errors in ENSO teleconnection can be explained by systematic errors in tropical precipitation associated with ENSO. That is, negative precipitation anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) are too weak in the models compared to that in the observations, and their amplitude tends to be strengthened from December to the following January, while they are weakened in the observations. In addition, analyses on the inter-model diversity strongly support that relative magnitudes of WNP and central Pacific precipitation anomalies are critical for determining sub-seasonal evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the North Pacific and East Asia.

  16. Binge-pattern alcohol exposure during puberty induces long-term changes in HPA axis reactivity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena M Przybycien-Szymanska

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is a dynamic and important period of brain development however, little is known about the long-term neurobiological consequences of alcohol consumption during puberty. Our previous studies showed that binge-pattern ethanol (EtOH treatment during pubertal development negatively dysregulated the responsiveness of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis, as manifested by alterations in corticotrophin-releasing hormone (CRH, arginine vasopressin (AVP, and corticosterone (CORT during this time period. Thus, the primary goal of this study was to determine whether these observed changes in important central regulators of the stress response were permanent or transient. In this study, juvenile male Wistar rats were treated with a binge-pattern EtOH treatment paradigm or saline alone for 8 days. The animals were left undisturbed until adulthood when they received a second round of treatments consisting of saline alone, a single dose of EtOH, or a second binge-pattern treatment paradigm. The results showed that pubertal binge-pattern EtOH exposure induced striking long-lasting alterations of many HPA axis parameters. Overall, our data provide strong evidence that binge-pattern EtOH exposure during pubertal maturation has long-term detrimental effects for the healthy development of the HPA axis.

  17. Eco-innovation Dynamics and Green Economic Change: the role of sectoral-specific patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Maj Munch; Faria, Lourenco

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the features of Green Economic Change process at the meso-level, the greening of industries. We posit that, as for “traditional” innovations, it is possible to identify sectoral eco-innovation patterns and that these represent key but neglected factors in the dynamics...... of green economic evolution. . The paper represents early speculative conceptual work. We have posited that, as for “general” innovations, it is possible to identify sectoral eco-innovation patterns and that these represent key but neglected factors in the dynamics of green economic chance. The paper...... identifies seven specific characteristics of eco-innovation which form the basis for identifying 4 core hypothesis which may explain sectoral heterogeneity and identify likely sectoral eco-innovation leaders....

  18. HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF HABITAT CHANGES AND GENETIC DIVERGENCE IN THE DESERT AND SHORT HORNED LIZARDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Historical environmental change is thought to have played an important role in the diversification of the biota of western North America. Many patterns of diversification have been associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of the latest Pleistocene. To evaluate the relativ...

  19. Recent Changes in Tree Species Abundance: Patterns, Trends, and Drivers Across Northeastern US Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudex-Cross, D.; Pontius, J.; Adams, A.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring trends in the abundance and distribution of tree species is essential to understanding potential impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. Related studies to date have largely focused on modeling distributional shifts according to future climate scenarios or used field inventory data to examine compositional changes across broader landscapes. Here, we leverage a novel remote sensing technique that utilizes field data, multitemporal Landsat imagery, and spectral unmixing to model regional changes in the abundance (percent basal area) of key northeastern US species over a 30-year period (1985-2015). We examine patterns in how species abundance has changed, as well as their relationship with climate, landscape, and soil characteristics using spatial regression models. Results show significant declines in overall abundance for sugar maple ( 8.6% 30-yr loss), eastern hemlock ( 7.8% 30-yr loss), balsam fir ( 5.0% 30-yr loss), and red spruce ( 3.8% total 30-yr loss). Species that saw significant increasing abundance include American beech ( 7.0% 30-yr gain) and red maple ( 2.5% 30-yr gain). However, these changes were not consistent across the landscape. For example, red spruce is increasing at upper elevations with concurrent losses in balsam fir and birch species. Similarly, sugar maple decreases are concentrated at lower elevations, likely due to increases in American beech. Various abiotic factors were significantly associated with changes in species composition including landscape position (e.g. longitude, elevation, and heat load index) and ecologically-relevant climate variables (e.g. growing season precipitation and annual temperature range). Interestingly, there was a stronger relationship in abundance changes across longitudes, rather than latitudes or elevations as predicted in modeled species migration scenarios.These results indicate that the dominant composition of northeastern forests is changing in ways that run counter to accepted

  20. Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy

    1999-01-01

    The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface

  1. On the interannual variability of the Bonin high associated with the East Asian summer monsoon rain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ha, Kyung-Ja; Lee, Sun-Seon [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea)

    2007-01-15

    In order to assess how the Bonin high affects interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) around the Korean Peninsula, the pulsation of the Bonin high and its association with teleconnection patterns was examined. The major factor for the interannual intensity of the EASM is the center position of the Bonin high rather than its center pressure. Up to 12 harmonics over time can be used to reconstruct the Bonin high, demonstrating its intraseasonal variation. The interannual variability of the Bonin high correlates with the Tibet high. This correlation is dominant for the EASM onset time, though not its retreat. The primary teleconnection pattern, reliant up on the interannual variability of the Bonin high, is the Western Pacific oscillation (WPO) in April. In relation to long-term variability, the correlation between the WPO and the Bonin high appears to contribute to the retreat stage of the EASM, which has itself increased since the mid-1970s. Furthermore, the WPO in May and the Tibet correlation has marked the onset rather than the retreat of the EASM since the 1970s. This highly correlated pattern since the mid-1970s may be the result of El Nino. (orig.)

  2. Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Jenifer E.; Hubbard, David M.; Contreras, Heraldo; Duarte, Cristian; Acuña, Emilio; Schoeman, David S.

    2017-01-01

    Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal

  3. Spatial-temporal changes of maximum and minimum temperatures in the Wei River Basin, China: Changing patterns, causes and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Saiyan; Huang, Shengzhi; Xie, Yangyang; Huang, Qiang; Leng, Guoyong; Hou, Beibei; Zhang, Ying; Wei, Xiu

    2018-05-01

    Due to the important role of temperature in the global climate system and energy cycles, it is important to investigate the spatial-temporal change patterns, causes and implications of annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures. In this study, the Cloud model were adopted to fully and accurately analyze the changing patterns of annual Tmax and Tmin from 1958 to 2008 by quantifying their mean, uniformity, and stability in the Wei River Basin (WRB), a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Additionally, the cross wavelet analysis was applied to explore the correlations among annual Tmax and Tmin and the yearly sunspots number, Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and soil moisture with an aim to determine possible causes of annual Tmax and Tmin variations. Furthermore, temperature-related impacts on vegetation cover and precipitation extremes were also examined. Results indicated that: (1) the WRB is characterized by increasing trends in annual Tmax and Tmin, with a more evident increasing trend in annual Tmin, which has a higher dispersion degree and is less uniform and stable than annual Tmax; (2) the asymmetric variations of Tmax and Tmin can be generally explained by the stronger effects of solar activity (primarily), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, and soil moisture on annual Tmin than on annual Tmax; and (3) increasing annual Tmax and Tmin have exerted strong influences on local precipitation extremes, in terms of their duration, intensity, and frequency in the WRB. This study presents new analyses of Tmax and Tmin in the WRB, and the findings may help guide regional agricultural production and water resources management.

  4. Changes in rainfall patterns in Mediterranean ecosystems: the MIND project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Papale D

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Will Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems be affected by the expected changes in precipitation regimes? If so, by how much and in which direction? These questions are at the basis of the research performed in context of the EU MIND project, whose key objectives were: i to investigate the potential effects of increasing drought on Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems at the process, ecosystem and regional scales and ii to assess ecosystem vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns. A network of experimental study sites has been created in Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, where field manipulations alter the amount of water available to the ecosystem. The most up-to-date methods of ecophysiology, micrometeorology, soil ecology and remote sensing have been used to elucidate the mechanisms that regulate the response of vegetation and soil to changes in water availability. This information is providing the basis for the implementation and validation of simulation models capable of predicting the drought response of Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems, and their vulnerability to future climate change, on a larger scale. The out-coming results are elucidating how water availability affects plant ecophysiological processes, the dynamics of soil carbon and the overall exchange of mass and energy between the land and the atmosphere. This paper focuses on some of the important, yet preliminary, results on C and energy fluxes that have been obtained at the large scale troughfall manipulation experiment (Tolfa, Italy, in a forest dominated by Arbutus unedo L.

  5. A Review of ENSO Influence on the North Atlantic. A Non-Stationary Signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic region is dominated by meridional movements of the circulation systems: from the tropics, where the West African Monsoon and extreme tropical weather events take place, to the extratropics, where the circulation is dominated by seasonal changes in the jetstream and extratropical cyclones. Climate variability over the North Atlantic is controlled by various mechanisms. Atmospheric internal variability plays a crucial role in the mid-latitudes. However, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO is still the main source of predictability in this region situated far away from the Pacific. Although the ENSO influence over tropical and extra-tropical areas is related to different physical mechanisms, in both regions this teleconnection seems to be non-stationary in time and modulated by multidecadal changes of the mean flow. Nowadays, long observational records (greater than 100 years and modeling projects (e.g., CMIP permit detecting non-stationarities in the influence of ENSO over the Atlantic basin, and further analyzing its potential mechanisms. The present article reviews the ENSO influence over the Atlantic region, paying special attention to the stability of this teleconnection over time and the possible modulators. Evidence is given that the ENSO–Atlantic teleconnection is weak over the North Atlantic. In this regard, the multidecadal ocean variability seems to modulate the presence of teleconnections, which can lead to important impacts of ENSO and to open windows of opportunity for seasonal predictability.

  6. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2017-12-01

    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  7. Gestational dietary patterns are not associated with blood pressure changes during pregnancy and early postpartum in a Brazilian prospective cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshriqui, Ilana; Vilela, Ana Amélia Freitas; Rebelo, Fernanda; Farias, Dayana Rodrigues; Castro, Maria Beatriz Trindade; Kac, Gilberto

    2016-02-01

    To identify gestational dietary patterns and evaluate the association between these patterns and the blood pressure (BP) rate of change during pregnancy and the postpartum. Prospective cohort study composed of 191 healthy pregnant women. Systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were obtained at the 5th-13th, 20th-26th, 30th-36th gestational weeks, and with 30-45 days postpartum. A food frequency questionnaire administered at the 30th-36th gestational week was used to measure dietary intake during pregnancy. Principal component analysis was performed to identify the dietary patterns. A longitudinal linear mixed-effects regression model was used to evaluate the association between the dietary patterns and BP (adjusted for time elapsed after conception and the women's age, education, parity, body mass index and total energy intake). Three gestational dietary patterns were identified: healthy, common-Brazilian and processed. SBP/DBP mean values (SD) were 110.1 (9.0)/66.9 (7.5), 108.7 (9.0)/64.9 (6.7), 111.3 (9.2)/67.0 (6.9) and 115.0 (10.7)/73.7 (8.6) mmHg at the first, second and third gestational trimesters and postpartum, respectively. Women with higher/lower adherence to the processed pattern presented SBP of 117.9 and 113.0 mmHg (P = 0.037), respectively, during postpartum. No association was found between any of the three dietary patterns and SBP in the multiple longitudinal linear regression models, whereas 1 SD increase in the common-Brazilian pattern was associated with a small change of DBP (β = 0.0006; 95% CI 4.66e-06, 0.001; P = 0.048). The three dietary patterns identified revealed no association with changes of SBP and DBP levels during pregnancy and at early postpartum in this sample of healthy Brazilian women.

  8. Changing patterns of clinical PET use - 5 years on

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binns, D.; Hicks, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Increasing clinical awareness and acceptance of the clinical role of positron emission tomography (PET) has the potential to alter patterns of referral. To assess whether patterns of referral are changing in response to greater experience with this technique, we reviewed indications of new referrals to our facility for each of the past 5 years of operation. Of more than 6,183 studies performed since our facility began operation in September 1996, 4,401 were initial referrals. Of these referrals the most common indications were carcinoma of the lung (n = 970, 22.0 %), colorectal cancer (n = 631, 14.3 %), malignant melanoma (n = 506, 11.5 %), genito-urinary tract cancer (n = 427, 9.7 %), epilepsy (n = 366, 8.3 %), and lymphoma (n = 351, 8.0 %). Referrals for all these indications, other than malignant melanoma, continued to grow in absolute terms throughout the 5 year interval but in relative terms only lung cancer maintained a similar proportion of scans reflecting an expansion of other referral indications. Evaluation of intractable partial complex seizures demonstrated the most marked growth in both absolute and relative terms. Conversely, malignant melanoma referrals declined as patients with thick melanoma began to have sentinel lymph node biopsy rather than PET as their initial staging investigation. Our experience suggests that clinical PET referrals reflect the expanding evidence-base regarding both the strengths and weaknesses of PET. Copyright (2002) The Australian and New Zealand Society of Nuclear Medicine Inc

  9. Breathing pattern and head posture: changes in craniocervical angles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabatucci, A; Raffaeli, F; Mastrovincenzo, M; Luchetta, A; Giannone, A; Ciavarella, D

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this study was to observe the influence of oral breathing on head posture and to establish possible postural changes observing the variation of craniocervical angles NSL/OPT and NSL/CVT between oral breathing subjects and physiological breathing subjects. A cross-sectional study was conducted. The sample included 115 subject, 56 boys and 59 girls, 5-22-year-old. Among these, 80 were classified as oral breathers and 35 as physiological breathers. The diagnosis of oral breathing was carried out thanks to characteristic signs and symptoms evaluated on clinical examination, the analysis of characteristic X-ray images, ENT examination with active anterior rhinomanometric (AAR) test. The structural and postural analysis was carried out, calculating the craniofacial angles NSL/OPT and NSL/CVT. Both NSL/OPT and NSL/CVT appear to be significantly greater to those observed in physiological breathing patients. This means that patients who tend to breathe through the mouth rather than exclusively through the nose show a reduction of cervical lordosis and a proinclination of the head. Our study confirms that the oral breathing modifies head position. The significant increase of the craniocervical angles NSL/OPT and NSL/CVT in patients with this altered breathing pattern suggests an elevation of the head and a greater extension of the head compared with the cervical spine. So, to correct the breathing pattern early, either during childhood or during adolescence, can lead to a progressive normalization of craniofacial morphology and head posture.

  10. Changes in the pattern of substance abuse after the onset of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Roland; Löhrer, Frank; Morgan, Vera; Hambrecht, Martin

    2005-06-01

    The aim of this study was to examine early signs of psychosis in patients suffering from both drug dependence and schizophrenia, compared to a control group of drug-addicted patients without a comorbid psychotic disorder, and to assess whether the presence of these signs was related to changes in the pattern of substance abuse. In a rehabilitation hospital for young addicts, 32 patients with a comorbid diagnosis of schizophrenia and 30 patients without the diagnosis of a psychotic disorder, were assessed using the Interview for the Retrospective Assessment of the Onset of Schizophrenia. Information relating to 64 signs of early psychosis was collected from every patient. From the 64 signs, five groups of symptoms were defined: non-specific and precursor symptoms; non-specific and depressive symptoms; negative symptoms; positive symptoms; and impaired social adjustment. The semiquantitative pattern of substance abuse for each 1-year interval over the previous 10 years was investigated using the categories of chapter F1 of ICD-10 and including an additional category "biological drugs". The relationship between the pattern of substance abuse and the presence of early signs was assessed using anova and non-parametric statistical methods. The results indicate that the defined pathological symptomatology greatly influences the pattern of consumption of psychoactive substances in both the psychosis group and the control group. The group factor exerted the greatest influence within the categories "biological drugs" and "other stimulants", where the "psychosis and addiction group" consumed significantly more than the control group. There is a subgroup of non-psychotic addicted patients whose pattern of psychoactive substance abuse is similar to that found in addicted patients suffering from schizophrenia. It may be helpful to systematically identify this subgroup with regard to possible therapeutic implications, particularly with regard to possible pharmacological treatment

  11. Survey on how fluctuating petrol prices are affecting Malaysian large city dwellers in changing their trip patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohani, M. M.; Pahazri, N.

    2018-04-01

    Rising fuel prices shocks have a significant impact on the way of life of most Malaysians. Due to the rising of oil prices, the costs of travel for private vehicle users are therefore increasing. The study was conducted based on the objective of studying the impact of rising fuel prices on three types of trip patterns of Malaysians who are living in the city areas. The three types of trip patterns are, workplaces trip, leisure trip and personal purposes trip during the weekdays. This study was conducted by distributing questionnaires to respondents of private vehicle users in selected city such as Johor Bahru, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Melaka, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan. This study, found that the trip patterns of those who were using their own vehicles had changed after the rising of fuel prices. The changes showed that many private vehicle users were taking steps to save money on petrol by adjusting their trips.

  12. The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

    2012-12-01

    A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data

  13. Deep brain stimulation changes basal ganglia output nuclei firing pattern in the dystonic hamster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblois, Arthur; Reese, René; Labarre, David; Hamann, Melanie; Richter, Angelika; Boraud, Thomas; Meissner, Wassilios G

    2010-05-01

    Dystonia is a heterogeneous syndrome of movement disorders characterized by involuntary muscle contractions leading to abnormal movements and postures. While medical treatment is often ineffective, deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the internal pallidum improves dystonia. Here, we studied the impact of DBS in the entopeduncular nucleus (EP), the rodent equivalent of the human globus pallidus internus, on basal ganglia output in the dt(sz)-hamster, a well-characterized model of dystonia by extracellular recordings. Previous work has shown that EP-DBS improves dystonic symptoms in dt(sz)-hamsters. We report that EP-DBS changes firing pattern in the EP, most neurons switching to a less regular firing pattern during DBS. In contrast, EP-DBS did not change the average firing rate of EP neurons. EP neurons display multiphasic responses to each stimulation impulse, likely underlying the disruption of their firing rhythm. Finally, neurons in the substantia nigra pars reticulata display similar responses to EP-DBS, supporting the idea that EP-DBS affects basal ganglia output activity through the activation of common afferent fibers. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Reading Patterns Changing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Modern life is changing the way people read April 23 was the 16th World Book and Copyright Day,also known as the World Book Day.Reading-related problems have once again attracted people’s attention.Today,living a life with an increasingly rapid pace,most people are

  15. Changing patterns in pulmonary tuberculosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tytle, T.L.; Johnson, T.H.

    1984-01-01

    The authors reviewed the initial chest roentgenograms of 182 consecutive adult patients with proven active tuberculosis. Less than 50% of all cases were known or suspected at the time of initial presentation. There is a low degree of correlation between radiologically discernible active pulmonary tuberculosis and extrapulmonary tuberculosis. A high percentage of cases represent uncommon pulmonary locations. The frequency of occurrence of four common pulmonary patterns is presented. 21 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

  16. Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bin; Lin, Hai

    2018-03-29

    The surface temperature variance and its potential change with global warming are most prominent in winter over Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitudes. Consistent wintertime surface temperature variability has been observed over large areas in Eurasia and North America on a broad range of time scales. However, it remains a challenge to quantify where and how the coherent change of temperature anomalies occur over the two continents. Here we demonstrate the coherent change of wintertime surface temperature anomalies over North Asia and the central-eastern parts of North America for the period from 1951 to 2015. This is supported by the results from the empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface temperature and temperature trend anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere extratropical lands and the timeseries analysis of the regional averaged temperature anomalies over North Asia and the Great Plains and Great Lakes. The Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA) teleconnection provides a pathway to connect the regional temperature anomalies over the two continents. The ABNA is also responsible for the decadal variation of the temperature relationship between North Asia and North America.

  17. Dialysate White Blood Cell Change after Initial Antibiotic Treatment Represented the Patterns of Response in Peritoneal Dialysis-Related Peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantiyavarong, Pichaya; Traitanon, Opas; Chuengsaman, Piyatida; Patumanond, Jayanton; Tasanarong, Adis

    2016-01-01

    Background. Patients with peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis usually have different responses to initial antibiotic treatment. This study aimed to explore the patterns of response by using the changes of dialysate white blood cell count on the first five days of the initial antibiotic treatment. Materials and Methods. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. All peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis episodes from January 2014 to December 2015 were reviewed. We categorized the patterns of antibiotic response into 3 groups: early response, delayed response, and failure group. The changes of dialysate white blood cell count for each pattern were determined by multilevel regression analysis. Results. There were 644 episodes in 455 patients: 378 (58.7%) of early response, 122 (18.9%) of delayed response, and 144 (22.3%) of failure episodes. The patterns of early, delayed, and failure groups were represented by the average rate reduction per day of dialysate WBC of 68.4%, 34.0%, and 14.2%, respectively (p value patterns, which were categorized by types of responses, have variable rates of WBC declining. Clinicians should focus on the delayed response and failure patterns in order to make a decision whether to continue medical therapies or to aggressively remove the peritoneal catheter.

  18. Changing energy profiles and consumption patterns following electrification in five rural villages, South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madubansi, M.; Shackleton, C.M.

    2006-01-01

    Following the democratic transition in South Africa in the early 1990s the government has implemented a widespread electrification programme, as well as introduced a free basic electricity allowance as a means of poverty alleviation. Yet there are limited longitudinal studies on the impacts of the introduction of electricity on the patterns of household energy use, and even more so in the neglected rural sector. This study reports on the patterns of household energy use in five rural settlements in 1991 and again in 2002. Results indicate a changing pattern of energy use for lighting and powering entertainment appliances, more specifically from dry-cell batteries and paraffin to electricity. Yet for thermal needs, most notably cooking, fuelwood has remained the most widespread fuel, and the amount used per month has not changed, despite increasing scarcity of wood in the local environment. There has been an increase in the proportion of households purchasing fuelwood as opposed to collecting their own. Overall, the mean total number of fuel types used per household has increased, indicating that electricity is simply viewed as an additional energy, rather than an alternative. Yet, electricity accounted for approximately 60% of expenditure on energy sources in 2002, despite the government's policy of a free basic allowance of 5-6 kWh per month. This has implications for energy supply costing, as well as the poverty alleviation dimensions of the whole programme

  19. Revisiting the Neural Basis of Acquired Amusia: Lesion Patterns and Structural Changes Underlying Amusia Recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sihvonen, Aleksi J; Ripollés, Pablo; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni; Soinila, Seppo; Särkämö, Teppo

    2017-01-01

    Although, acquired amusia is a common deficit following stroke, relatively little is still known about its precise neural basis, let alone to its recovery. Recently, we performed a voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) and morphometry (VBM) study which revealed a right lateralized lesion pattern, and longitudinal gray matter volume (GMV) and white matter volume (WMV) changes that were specifically associated with acquired amusia after stroke. In the present study, using a larger sample of stroke patients ( N = 90), we aimed to replicate and extend the previous structural findings as well as to determine the lesion patterns and volumetric changes associated with amusia recovery. Structural MRIs were acquired at acute and 6-month post-stroke stages. Music perception was behaviorally assessed at acute and 3-month post-stroke stages using the Scale and Rhythm subtests of the Montreal Battery of Evaluation of Amusia (MBEA). Using these scores, the patients were classified as non-amusic, recovered amusic, and non-recovered amusic. The results of the acute stage VLSM analyses and the longitudinal VBM analyses converged to show that more severe and persistent (non-recovered) amusia was associated with an extensive pattern of lesions and GMV/WMV decrease in right temporal, frontal, parietal, striatal, and limbic areas. In contrast, less severe and transient (recovered) amusia was linked to lesions specifically in left inferior frontal gyrus as well as to a GMV decrease in right parietal areas. Separate continuous analyses of MBEA Scale and Rhythm scores showed extensively overlapping lesion pattern in right temporal, frontal, and subcortical structures as well as in the right insula. Interestingly, the recovered pitch amusia was related to smaller GMV decreases in the temporoparietal junction whereas the recovered rhythm amusia was associated to smaller GMV decreases in the inferior temporal pole. Overall, the results provide a more comprehensive picture of the lesions

  20. Revisiting the Neural Basis of Acquired Amusia: Lesion Patterns and Structural Changes Underlying Amusia Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sihvonen, Aleksi J.; Ripollés, Pablo; Rodríguez-Fornells, Antoni; Soinila, Seppo; Särkämö, Teppo

    2017-01-01

    Although, acquired amusia is a common deficit following stroke, relatively little is still known about its precise neural basis, let alone to its recovery. Recently, we performed a voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) and morphometry (VBM) study which revealed a right lateralized lesion pattern, and longitudinal gray matter volume (GMV) and white matter volume (WMV) changes that were specifically associated with acquired amusia after stroke. In the present study, using a larger sample of stroke patients (N = 90), we aimed to replicate and extend the previous structural findings as well as to determine the lesion patterns and volumetric changes associated with amusia recovery. Structural MRIs were acquired at acute and 6-month post-stroke stages. Music perception was behaviorally assessed at acute and 3-month post-stroke stages using the Scale and Rhythm subtests of the Montreal Battery of Evaluation of Amusia (MBEA). Using these scores, the patients were classified as non-amusic, recovered amusic, and non-recovered amusic. The results of the acute stage VLSM analyses and the longitudinal VBM analyses converged to show that more severe and persistent (non-recovered) amusia was associated with an extensive pattern of lesions and GMV/WMV decrease in right temporal, frontal, parietal, striatal, and limbic areas. In contrast, less severe and transient (recovered) amusia was linked to lesions specifically in left inferior frontal gyrus as well as to a GMV decrease in right parietal areas. Separate continuous analyses of MBEA Scale and Rhythm scores showed extensively overlapping lesion pattern in right temporal, frontal, and subcortical structures as well as in the right insula. Interestingly, the recovered pitch amusia was related to smaller GMV decreases in the temporoparietal junction whereas the recovered rhythm amusia was associated to smaller GMV decreases in the inferior temporal pole. Overall, the results provide a more comprehensive picture of the lesions

  1. Revisiting the Neural Basis of Acquired Amusia: Lesion Patterns and Structural Changes Underlying Amusia Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksi J. Sihvonen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although, acquired amusia is a common deficit following stroke, relatively little is still known about its precise neural basis, let alone to its recovery. Recently, we performed a voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM and morphometry (VBM study which revealed a right lateralized lesion pattern, and longitudinal gray matter volume (GMV and white matter volume (WMV changes that were specifically associated with acquired amusia after stroke. In the present study, using a larger sample of stroke patients (N = 90, we aimed to replicate and extend the previous structural findings as well as to determine the lesion patterns and volumetric changes associated with amusia recovery. Structural MRIs were acquired at acute and 6-month post-stroke stages. Music perception was behaviorally assessed at acute and 3-month post-stroke stages using the Scale and Rhythm subtests of the Montreal Battery of Evaluation of Amusia (MBEA. Using these scores, the patients were classified as non-amusic, recovered amusic, and non-recovered amusic. The results of the acute stage VLSM analyses and the longitudinal VBM analyses converged to show that more severe and persistent (non-recovered amusia was associated with an extensive pattern of lesions and GMV/WMV decrease in right temporal, frontal, parietal, striatal, and limbic areas. In contrast, less severe and transient (recovered amusia was linked to lesions specifically in left inferior frontal gyrus as well as to a GMV decrease in right parietal areas. Separate continuous analyses of MBEA Scale and Rhythm scores showed extensively overlapping lesion pattern in right temporal, frontal, and subcortical structures as well as in the right insula. Interestingly, the recovered pitch amusia was related to smaller GMV decreases in the temporoparietal junction whereas the recovered rhythm amusia was associated to smaller GMV decreases in the inferior temporal pole. Overall, the results provide a more comprehensive picture of

  2. Identification of a food pattern characterized by high-fiber and low-fat food choices associated with low prospective weight change in the EPIC-Potsdam cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Mandy; Nöthlings, Ute; Hoffmann, Kurt; Bergmann, Manuela M; Boeing, Heiner

    2005-05-01

    The aim of the study was to identify a dietary pattern predictive of subsequent annual weight change by using dietary composition information. Study subjects were 24,958 middle-aged men and women of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Potsdam cohort. To derive dietary patterns, we used the reduced rank regression method with 3 response variables presumed to affect weight change: fat density, carbohydrate density, and fiber density. Annual weight change was computed by fitting a linear regression line to each person's body weight data (baseline, and 2- and 4-y follow-up) and determining the slope. In linear regression models, the pattern score was related to annual weight change. We identified a food pattern of high consumption of whole-grain bread, fruits, fruit juices, grain flakes/cereals, and raw vegetables, and of low consumption of processed meat, butter, high-fat cheese, margarine, and meat to be predictive of subsequent weight change. Mean annual weight gain gradually decreased with increasing pattern score (P for trend food pattern was significant only in nonobese subjects. In this study population, we identified a food pattern characterized by high-fiber and low-fat food choices that can help to maintain body weight or at least prevent excess body weight gain.

  3. Teleconnections in complex human-Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Edmonds, J.

    2017-12-01

    Human systems and physical Earth systems are closely coupled and interact in complex ways that are sometimes surprising. This presentation discusses a few examples of system interactions. We consider the coupled energy-water-land-economy systems. We show how reductions in fossil fuel emissions are inversely coupled to land rents, food prices and deforestation. We discuss how water shortages in one part of the world is propagated to other distant parts of the world. We discuss the sensitivity of international trade patterns to energy and land systems technology and markets, and the potentially unanticipated results that can emerge.

  4. What Is It Going to Be? Pattern and Potential Function of Natal Coat Change in Sexually Dichromatic Redfronted Lemurs (Eulemur fulvus rufus)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthold, Julia A; Fichtel, Claudia; Kappeler, Peter M

    2009-01-01

    with adult male coloration and female infants subsequently undergo a change in coloration. Using digital pictures and behavioral data collected on eight mother-offspring dyads from birth until the end of the coloration change, we 1) described timing and pattern of pelage development in redfronted lemur...... infants and 2) examined behavioral developmental correlates of the coloration change. The color change took place between 7 and 17 weeks of age and coincided with advanced physical independence; a pattern also found in monochromatic primate species with natal coats. No behavioral differences between male...

  5. Research Paper: The Impact of Synovial NF-ĸB Activation on Apoptosis Pattern Change During Adjuvant-induced Inflammation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Golabi

    2017-05-01

    Conclusion: It seems that apoptosis pattern change plays an important role in the progression and modulation of CFA-induced inflammation and its related symptoms. Also, it can be concluded that synovial NF-ĸB had a crucial role in synovial apoptosis change during the study period.

  6. Career patterns of healthcare executives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahey, D F; Myrtle, R C

    2001-02-01

    This research examines the job and career changes of healthcare executives and managers working in different segments of the healthcare industry in the western United States. The results suggest that the job and career patterns in the healthcare delivery sector are undergoing significant transformation. One third of the respondents reports that at least one of their last four job changes was involuntary or unplanned. One half of those attempted to make a career change. This study identifies four different executive and management career patterns. The most common was one of multiple career changes. The second pattern was that of a single career change, followed by a 'traditional' career in which one did not seek a career change. The final pattern was characterized as a movement back and forth between two different segments of the healthcare industry. Age, gender, marital status and education were not associated with any specific career pattern. The need to achieve results early in the respondent's career had a strong influence on career patterns. This study confirms the fluidity of career movement and the changing permeability between the various segments of the healthcare industry. It also suggests that career success increasingly will require broad management experience in those different segments.

  7. Recent changes of weather patterns in North America. Progress report for period ending April 1, 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kukla, G.J.; Karl, T.

    1994-01-01

    This report contains information dealing with climatic change in North America. Results gathered from present and previous DOE contracts are discussed. These include: usage of the Historical Climatology Network, characteristics of recent climate change, impacts of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases, seasonal trends, geographic and seasonal distribution of temperature anomalies, paleoclimates, weather pattern differences between eastern and western regions, daily temperature variations, general circulation models, and results of oceanic circulation

  8. Developmental changes in sexual prejudice from early to late adolescence: the effects of gender, race, and ideology on different patterns of change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poteat, V Paul; Anderson, Carolyn J

    2012-09-01

    This study documented significant changes in prejudice toward gay and lesbian individuals among adolescents from the ages of 12 to 18 years. Moreover, in line with developmental theories of prejudice, there was substantial variability in these patterns, partially predicted by the gender and ideological beliefs (reflected by social dominance orientation [SDO]) of individuals. Boys reported higher prejudice at age 12 than girls. SDO also accounted for initial differences in levels of prejudice. Further, although prejudice toward gay men did decrease among girls over time, it did not decrease among boys. Prejudice toward lesbians decreased at similar rates for boys and girls. These different trajectories are explained within the context of gender socialization processes during adolescence. In addition, fluctuations in adolescents' own SDO corresponded with fluctuations in their level of prejudice, over and above those tied to age-related changes. This association was even stronger among those with overall higher SDO tendencies than others. However, SDO, when treated as a stable invariant factor, did not predict different patterns of progressive age-related change in prejudice. These results extend the research on sexual prejudice by examining it within a broader and more dynamic developmental framework, in greater alignment with developmental theories of prejudice. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  9. Motor unit recruitment patterns 1: responses to changes in locomotor velocity and incline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodson-Tole, Emma F; Wakeling, James M

    2008-06-01

    Mammalian skeletal muscles are composed of a mixture of motor unit types, which contribute a range of mechanical and physiological properties to the muscle. For a muscle to effectively contribute to smooth, co-ordinated movement it must activate an appropriate number and combination of motor units to generate the required force over a suitable time period. Much evidence exists indicating that motor units are activated in an orderly fashion, from the slowest through to the fastest. A growing body of evidence, however, indicates that such a recruitment strategy does not always hold true. Here we investigate how motor unit recruitment patterns were influenced by changes in locomotor velocity and incline. Kinematics data and myoelectric signals were collected from three rat ankle extensor muscles during running on a treadmill at nine velocity and incline combinations. Wavelet and principal component analysis were used to simultaneously decompose the signals into time and frequency space. The relative frequency components of the signals were quantified during 20 time windows of a stride from each locomotor condition. Differences in signal frequency components existed between muscles and locomotor conditions. Faster locomotor velocities led to a relative increase in high frequency components, whereas greater inclines led to a relative increase in the low frequency components. These data were interpreted as representing changes in motor unit recruitment patterns in response to changes in the locomotor demand. Motor units were not always recruited in an orderly manner, indicating that recruitment is a multi-factorial phenomenon that is not yet fully understood.

  10. Stimulation of Changes, Collective Commitment and The Patterns of Group Formation in Community Development in South Sulawesi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, Syafiuddin

    2018-05-01

    This study aims to examine the pattern of group formation, related to the stimulation of change through the empowerment of farmers and poor fishermen The pattern of group formation is the basis for sustainable development. The research method used is qualitative descriptive method and relevant research type such as case study and triangulasi. The results of the study showed that (1) stimulation of changes made through development programs or community empowerment in the areas studied both among farm households and poor fishermen households for some programs received positive response from farmers and fishermen. However, the collective commitment to the breeding is relatively weak, since the group formed in each program is not done through good planning and concepts. (2) there are two patterns of group formation that are natural and formed formations initiated by outsiders. Groups that are naturally formed are more institutionalized and have characteristics such as intense and relatively routine interaction, strong mutual trust, and have a common form or mechanism shared for common purposes. The group can form the basis for sustainable development in improving the welfare of the poor.

  11. The 'Blue-Shift' in midlatitude dynamics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L. V.

    2013-12-01

    Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with

  12. Consonant and Syllable Structure Patterns in Childhood Apraxia of Speech: Developmental Change in Three Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacks, Adam; Marquardt, Thomas P.; Davis, Barbara L.

    2006-01-01

    Changes in consonant and syllable-level error patterns of three children diagnosed with childhood apraxia of speech (CAS) were investigated in a 3-year longitudinal study. Spontaneous speech samples were analyzed to assess the accuracy of consonants and syllables. Consonant accuracy was low overall, with most frequent errors on middle- and…

  13. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  14. Effect of changes in human ecology and behavior on patterns of sexually transmitted diseases, including human immunodeficiency virus infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserheit, J N

    1994-01-01

    The last 20 years have witnessed six striking changes in patterns of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs): emergence of new STD organisms and etiologies, reemergence of old STDs, shifts in the populations in which STDs are concentrated, shifts in the etiological spectra of STD syndromes, alterations in the incidence of STD complications, and increases in antimicrobial resistance. For example, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) emerged to devastate the United States with a fatal pandemic involving at least 1 million people. The incidence of syphilis rose progressively after 1956 to reach a 40-year peak by 1990. In both cases, disease patterns shifted from homosexual men to include minority heterosexuals. Over the last decade, gonorrhea became increasingly concentrated among adolescents, and several new types of antimicrobial resistance appeared. Three interrelated types of environments affect STD patterns. The microbiologic, hormonal, and immunologic microenvironments most directly influence susceptibility, infectiousness, and development of sequelae. These microenvironments are shaped, in part, by the personal environments created by an individual's sexual, substance-use, and health-related behaviors. The personal environments are also important determinants of acquisition of infection and development of sequelae but, in addition, they mediate risk of exposure to infection. These are, therefore, the environments that most directly affect changing disease patterns. Finally, individuals' personal environments are, in turn, molded by powerful macroenvironmental forces, including socioeconomic, demographic, geographic, political, epidemiologic, and technological factors. Over the past 20 years, the profound changes that have occurred in many aspects of the personal environment and the macroenvironment have been reflected in new STD patterns. PMID:8146135

  15. Western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) change their activity patterns in response to frugivory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Shelly; Cipolletta, Chloé; Robbins, Martha M

    2009-02-01

    The most important environmental factor explaining interspecies variation in ecology and sociality of the great apes is likely to be variation in resource availability. Relatively little is known about the activity patterns of western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla), which inhabit a dramatically different environment from the well-studied mountain gorillas (G. beringei beringei). This study aims to provide a detailed quantification of western lowland gorillas' activity budgets using direct observations on one habituated group in Bai Hokou, Central African Republic. We examined how activity patterns of both sexes are shaped by seasonal frugivory. Activity was recorded with 5-min instantaneous sampling between December 2004 and December 2005. During the high-frugivory period the gorillas spent less time feeding and more time traveling than during the low-frugivory period. The silverback spent less time feeding but more time resting than both females and immatures, which likely results from a combination of social and physiological factors. When compared with mountain gorillas, western lowland gorillas spend more time feeding (67 vs. 55%) and traveling (12 vs. 6.5%), but less time resting (21 vs. 34%) and engaging in social/other activities (0.5 vs. 3.6%). This disparity in activity budgets of western lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas may be explained by the more frugivorous diet and the greater dispersion of food resources experienced by western lowland gorillas. Like other apes, western lowland gorillas change their activity patterns in response to changes in the diet. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. Patterns of radiographic changes in hands and feet of rheumatoid arthritis in Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Arfaj, Abdurhman S.; Al-Boukai, Ahmad A.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of the study was to characterize the pattern of radiographic changes in the hands and feet of rheumatoid arthritis in Saudi patients. The radiographs of hands and feet of rheumatoid arthritis patients attending rheumatology outpatient clinics of King Khalid University Hospital in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, over the period extending from March to June 2001, were examined and reported for the presence of osteopenia, joint space narrowing, and erosions. Fifty-six rheumatoid arthritis patients were studied. Their mean age was 50 + 1.9 years, and mean disease duration was 9.07 + 0.84 years. Generalized osteopenia was seen in 16/56 (29%) and periarticular osteopenia in 38/56 (68%). Joint space narrowing was present in 9/56 (16%) of feet and 35/56 (63%) of hand x-rays. Erosions were seen in 3/56 (6%) of feet and in 22/56 (39%) of hand x-rays. Significant correlation was seen between joints space narrowing, joint erosions, and disease duration. Radiographic changes in hands and feet of Saudi rheumatoid arthritis patients are less severe than those reported from the West, and the pattern is also different with less affection of the feet. (author)

  17. The Developing, Aging Neocortex: How genetics and epigenetics influence early developmental patterning and age-related change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly J. Huffman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A hallmark of mammalian development is the generation of functional subdivisions within the nervous system. In humans, this regionalization creates a complex system that regulates behavior, cognition, memory and emotion. During development, specification of neocortical tissue that leads to functional sensory and motor regions results from an interplay between cortically intrinsic, molecular processes, such as gene expression, and extrinsic processes regulated by sensory input. Cortical specification in mice occurs pre- and perinatally, when gene expression is robust and various anatomical distinctions are observed alongside an emergence of physiological function. After patterning, gene expression continues to shift and axonal connections mature into an adult form. The function of adult cortical gene expression may be to maintain neocortical subdivisions that were established during early patterning. As some changes in neocortical gene expression have been observed past early development into late adulthood, gene expression may also play a role in the altered neocortical function observed in age-related cognitive decline and brain dysfunction. This review provides a discussion of how neocortical gene expression and specific patterns of neocortical sensori-motor axonal connections develop and change throughout the lifespan of the animal. We posit that a role of neocortical gene expression in neocortex is to regulate plasticity mechanisms that impact critical periods for sensory and motor plasticity in aging. We describe results from several studies in aging brain that detail changes in gene expression that may relate to microstructural changes observed in brain anatomy. We discuss the role of altered glucocorticoid signaling in age-related cognitive and functional decline, as well as how aging in the brain may result from immune system activation. We describe how caloric restriction or reduction of oxidative stress may ameliorate effects of aging

  18. Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Morales

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Throughout the second half of the 20th century, the Central Andes has experienced significant climatic and environmental changes characterized by a persistent warming trend, an increase in elevation of the 0 °C isotherm, and sustained glacier shrinkage. These changes have occurred in conjunction with a steadily growing demand for water resources. Given the short span of instrumental hydroclimatic records in this region, longer time span records are needed to understand the nature of climate variability and to improve the predictability of precipitation, a key factor modulating the socio-economic development in the South American Altiplano and adjacent arid lowlands. In this study we present the first quasi-millennial, tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano. This annual (November–October precipitation reconstruction is based on the Polylepis tarapacana tree-ring width series and represents the closest dendroclimatological record to the Equator in South America. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 707 yr and provides a unique record characterizing the occurrence of extreme events and consistent oscillations in precipitation. It also allows an assessment of the spatial and temporal stabilities of the teleconnections between rainfall in the Altiplano and hemispheric forcings such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Since the 1930s to present, a persistent negative trend in precipitation has been recorded in the reconstruction, with the three driest years since 1300 AD occurring in the last 70 yr. Throughout the 707 yr, the reconstruction contains a clear ENSO-like pattern at interannual to multidecadal time scales, which determines inter-hemispheric linkages between our reconstruction and other precipitation sensitive records modulated by ENSO in North America. Our reconstruction points out that century-scale dry periods are a recurrent feature in the Altiplano climate, and that the

  19. How small communities respond to environmental change: patterns from tropical to polar ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry P. Huntington

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Local communities throughout the world are experiencing extensive social, cultural, economic, environmental, and climatic changes. Rather than passively accepting the effects of such changes, many communities are responding in various ways to take advantage of opportunities and to minimize negative impacts. We review examples from 13 cases around the world to identify patterns in how communities have been able to respond to change. Communities are able to respond by making changes in the time and location of activities, by using different species, by developing or using new technologies, and by organizing themselves internally or in networks. The possible responses a community can make on its own constitute the autonomous response space. When communities work with others to respond, they are in the collaborative response space. These findings suggest that assessments concerning climate and other forms of change should include local responses as a foundation for policy recommendations, recognizing that both autonomous and collaborative responses can contribute to adaptation. Policies designed to achieve adaptation or sustainability should consider ways to expand the autonomous response space, thus freeing local initiative, while also making the collaborative response space more cooperative, thus providing support to communities rather than imposing limitations.

  20. Geometric morphometric analysis of cyclical body shape changes in color pattern variants of Cichla temensis Humboldt, 1821 (Perciformes: Cichlidae demonstrates reproductive energy allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Reiss

    Full Text Available Previously recognized color and pattern variants of adult Cichla temensis in Amazon flood pulse river environments reflect the cycling of individuals through seasonal sexual maturity and spawning. Individuals also vary in shape from blocky to fusiform. To determine if shape differences are related to patterns of fat reserve deposition and utilization, and to quantify the relationship of shape with color and pattern variation and life history status, specimens in each of four previously defined grades of color and pattern variation were compared using geometric morphometric techniques. Progressive shape changes occurred between grades independent of sex and correlated to gonosomatic index (GSI. Thin plate spline deformation visualizations indicate that the observed shape differences are related to fat deposition patterns. The seasonal timing of shape change and its link to color pattern variation, sexual maturity and local water level conditions suggests a relationship between the physiological and behavioral characteristics of C. temensis and the cyclical flood pulse pattern of its habitat.

  1. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

    2018-05-01

    Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural

  2. Data on introduced plants in Zimbabwe: Floristic changes and patterns of collection based on historical herbarium records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Maroyi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available National herbaria with significant historical plant collections are critical to tracking floristic changes and patterns, which include the introduction and spread of non-native plant species. To explore the importance of herbarium specimen data in understanding floristic changes in Zimbabwe, the plant collections housed by the National Herbarium (SRGH in Harare, Zimbabwe were utilized with historical specimens dating back to 1870. A list of naturalised plant taxa and collection data were compiled. A total of 2916 plant specimens were recorded, comprising of 401 taxa, 237 genera and 76 plant families. Twenty eight specimens (1.0% were collected between 1870 and 1908, prior to the establishment of the National Herbarium in 1909 and 123 specimens (4.2% were collected in the first 25 years of the establishment of the institute (1909–1934. Intensive collection of herbarium specimens of casual, naturalised and invasive alien plant species occurred between 1950 and 1970. This data demonstrates the utility of plant species data housed in the National Herbaria and how such data can be used to map floristic changes and patterns. Keywords: Casual, Floristic changes, Invasive, Naturalised, National herbarium, Zimbabwe

  3. Gestational and postpartum weight change patterns in mothers with eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerwas, Stephanie C; Von Holle, Ann; Perrin, Eliana M; Cockrell Skinner, Asheley; Reba-Harrelson, Lauren; Hamer, Robert M; Stoltenberg, Camilla; Torgersen, Leila; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Bulik, Cynthia M

    2014-11-01

    Although pregnancy can be associated with adaptive changes in weight and eating behaviour for women with eating disorders, less is known about whether these changes are maintained in the postpartum period. We used a longitudinal design to examine gestational and postpartum weight trajectories in mothers with and without eating disorders in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) conducted by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Fifty-six women reported anorexia nervosa (AN), 636 bulimia nervosa, 3327 binge eating disorder and 69 eating disorder not otherwise specified, purging type. The referent group included 61,233 mothers with no eating disorder. We used a mixed effects model to predict weight change over time by eating disorder subtype. Mothers with AN, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder and eating disorder not otherwise specified had greater increases in body mass index (BMI) during pregnancy and greater decreases in BMI over the first 6 months postpartum. Women with AN shifted from the underweight BMI range before pregnancy to the normal weight range at 36 months postpartum Patterns of maternal weight gain and retention during the perinatal period vary across eating disorder subtype and warrant clinical attention. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  4. Soil water content evaluation considering time-invariant spatial pattern and space-variant temporal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, W.; Si, B. C.

    2013-10-01

    Soil water content (SWC) varies in space and time. The objective of this study was to evaluate soil water content distribution using a statistical model. The model divides spatial SWC series into time-invariant spatial patterns, space-invariant temporal changes, and space- and time-dependent redistribution terms. The redistribution term is responsible for the temporal changes in spatial patterns of SWC. An empirical orthogonal function was used to separate the total variations of redistribution terms into the sum of the product of spatial structures (EOFs) and temporally-varying coefficients (ECs). Model performance was evaluated using SWC data of near-surface (0-0.2 m) and root-zone (0-1.0 m) from a Canadian Prairie landscape. Three significant EOFs were identified for redistribution term for both soil layers. EOF1 dominated the variations of redistribution terms and it resulted in more changes (recharge or discharge) in SWC at wetter locations. Depth to CaCO3 layer and organic carbon were the two most important controlling factors of EOF1, and together, they explained over 80% of the variations in EOF1. Weak correlation existed between either EOF2 or EOF3 and the observed factors. A reasonable prediction of SWC distribution was obtained with this model using cross validation. The model performed better in the root zone than in the near surface, and it outperformed conventional EOF method in case soil moisture deviated from the average conditions.

  5. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  6. Temporal Patterns in Diversity Change on Earth Over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambach, Richard

    2007-05-01

    Multi-celled animals and plants did not originate until about 600 million years ago. Since then the diversity of life has expanded greatly, but this has not been a monotonic increase. Diversity, as taxonomic variety or richness, is produced by the interaction of origination and extinction. Origination and extinction are almost equally balanced; it has taken 600 million years to accumulate 10 to 30 million living species. With most species life spans in the range of one to fifteen million years most species that have ever originated are extinct and global diversity has “turned over” many times. Paleontologists recognize about 18 short-term events of elevated extinction intensity and diversity loss of sufficient magnitude to warrant the term “mass extinction.” Interestingly, in only one instance, the end-Cretaceous extinction, is there a consensus for the triggering event, but the kill mechanism or mechanisms that caused the widespread death of lineages is not established. We know less about the cause-effect relationships for other events. Recently a 62 million-year periodicity in the fluctuation of diversity has been documented, expressed primarily in the variation of diversity of marine genera that survived 45 million years or less. Analysis of the pattern of diversity change at the finest temporal scale possible suggests that the short-term mass extinctions are superimposed on this regular pattern of diversity fluctuations, rather than causal of them. However, most mass extinctions (14 of 18) occurred during the intervals of general diversity loss. It remains to be seen how origination and extinction interact to produce the periodic fluctuation in diversity.

  7. Social Change, Competition and Inequality: Macro Societal Patterns Reflected in Curriculum Practices of Turkish Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somel, Rahsan Nazli; Nohl, Arnd-Michael

    2015-01-01

    Curriculum reforms provide a unique opportunity to investigate how in times of social change education is not only influenced by, but also itself a driver of, competition and inequality. This article sheds light on a specific instance of how macro-societal patterns in education intermingle in twenty-first century Turkey by inquiring into a major…

  8. Association of 1-y changes in diet pattern with cardiovascular disease risk factors and adipokines: results from the 1-y randomized Oslo Diet and Exercise Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, D.R.; Sluik, D.; Rokling-Andersen, M.H.; Anderssen, S.A.; Drevon, C.A.

    2009-01-01

    Background: We hypothesized that favorable changes in dietary patterns would lead to a reduction in body size and an improvement in metabolic status. Objective: The objective was to study changes in diet patterns relative to changes in body size, blood pressure, and circulating concentrations of

  9. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  10. Changing patterns in water toxicity associated with current use pesticides in three California agriculture regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Brian S; Phillips, Bryn M; Voorhees, Jennifer P; Deng, Xin; Geraci, Jeff; Worcester, Karen; Tjeerdema, Ron S

    2018-03-01

    Regulation of agriculture irrigation water discharges in California, USA, is assessed and controlled by its 9 Regional Water Quality Control Boards under the jurisdiction of the California State Water Resources Control Board. Each Regional Water Board has developed programs to control pesticides in runoff as part of the waste discharge requirements implemented through each region's Irrigated Lands Regulatory Program. The present study assessed how pesticide use patterns differ in the Imperial (Imperial County) and the Salinas and Santa Maria (Monterey County) valleys, which host 3 of California's prime agriculture areas. Surface-water toxicity associated with current use pesticides was monitored at several sites in these areas in 2014 and 2015, and results were linked to changes in pesticide use patterns in these areas. Pesticide use patterns appeared to coincide with differences in the way agriculture programs were implemented by the 2 respective Regional Water Quality Control Boards, and these programs differed in the 2 Water Board Regions. Different pesticide use patterns affected the occurrence of pesticides in agriculture runoff, and this influenced toxicity test results. Greater detection frequency and higher concentrations of the organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos were detected in agriculture runoff in Imperial County compared to Monterey County, likely due to more rigorous monitoring requirements for growers using this pesticide in Monterey County. Monterey County agriculture runoff contained toxic concentrations of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid pesticides, which impacted amphipods (Hyalella azteca) and midge larvae (Chironomus dilutus) in toxicity tests. Study results illustrate how monitoring strategies need to evolve as regulatory actions affect change in pesticide use and demonstrate the importance of using toxicity test indicator species appropriate for the suite of contaminants in runoff in order to accurately assess environmental risk. Integr

  11. Simulating carbon dioxide exchange rates of deciduous tree species: evidence for a general pattern in biochemical changes and water stress response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Robert F; Bauerle, William L; Wang, Ying

    2009-09-01

    Deciduous trees have a seasonal carbon dioxide exchange pattern that is attributed to changes in leaf biochemical properties. However, it is not known if the pattern in leaf biochemical properties - maximum Rubisco carboxylation (V(cmax)) and electron transport (J(max)) - differ between species. This study explored whether a general pattern of changes in V(cmax), J(max), and a standardized soil moisture response accounted for carbon dioxide exchange of deciduous trees throughout the growing season. The model MAESTRA was used to examine V(cmax) and J(max) of leaves of five deciduous trees, Acer rubrum 'Summer Red', Betula nigra, Quercus nuttallii, Quercus phellos and Paulownia elongata, and their response to soil moisture. MAESTRA was parameterized using data from in situ measurements on organs. Linking the changes in biochemical properties of leaves to the whole tree, MAESTRA integrated the general pattern in V(cmax) and J(max) from gas exchange parameters of leaves with a standardized soil moisture response to describe carbon dioxide exchange throughout the growing season. The model estimates were tested against measurements made on the five species under both irrigated and water-stressed conditions. Measurements and modelling demonstrate that the seasonal pattern of biochemical activity in leaves and soil moisture response can be parameterized with straightforward general relationships. Over the course of the season, differences in carbon exchange between measured and modelled values were within 6-12 % under well-watered conditions and 2-25 % under water stress conditions. Hence, a generalized seasonal pattern in the leaf-level physiological change of V(cmax) and J(max), and a standardized response to soil moisture was sufficient to parameterize carbon dioxide exchange for large-scale evaluations. Simplification in parameterization of the seasonal pattern of leaf biochemical activity and soil moisture response of deciduous forest species is demonstrated. This

  12. Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

    2016-09-01

    The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

  13. Changes in running pattern due to fatigue and cognitive load in orienteering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millet, Guillaume Y; Divert, Caroline; Banizette, Marion; Morin, Jean-Benoit

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the influence of fatigue on running biomechanics in normal running, in normal running with a cognitive task, and in running while map reading. Nineteen international and less experienced orienteers performed a fatiguing running exercise of duration and intensity similar to a classic distance orienteering race on an instrumented treadmill while performing mental arithmetic, an orienteering simulation, and control running at regular intervals. Two-way repeated-measures analysis of variance did not reveal any significant difference between mental arithmetic and control running for any of the kinematic and kinetic parameters analysed eight times over the fatiguing protocol. However, these parameters were systematically different between the orienteering simulation and the other two conditions (mental arithmetic and control running). The adaptations in orienteering simulation running were significantly more pronounced in the elite group when step frequency, peak vertical ground reaction force, vertical stiffness, and maximal downward displacement of the centre of mass during contact were considered. The effects of fatigue on running biomechanics depended on whether the orienteers read their map or ran normally. It is concluded that adding a cognitive load does not modify running patterns. Therefore, all changes in running pattern observed during the orienteering simulation, particularly in elite orienteers, are the result of adaptations to enable efficient map reading and/or potentially prevent injuries. Finally, running patterns are not affected to the same extent by fatigue when a map reading task is added.

  14. Species distributions and climate change:current patterns and future scenarios for biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian

    by shifts of their distributional ranges, which affects the spatial patterns of species richness and turnover. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 1.8 - 4°C until the end of the century; hence climate change will most likely leave further imprints on species and ecosystems. This PhD thesis aims......-thirds of the areas harboring the richest amphibian faunas may be heavily impacted by at least one of the major threats by 2080. The stability of the climatic niche influences the need for a species to track climate change via dispersal, or its potential to adapt to novel climatic conditions. I therefore explore...... the phylogenetic signal in climatic niches of the world's amphibians, which serves as a surrogate quantification of niche stability. Results indicate an overall tendency of phylogenetic signal to be present in realised climatic niches, but signal strength varies across biogeographical regions and among amphibian...

  15. Data on introduced plants in Zimbabwe: Floristic changes and patterns of collection based on historical herbarium records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroyi, Alfred

    2017-12-01

    National herbaria with significant historical plant collections are critical to tracking floristic changes and patterns, which include the introduction and spread of non-native plant species. To explore the importance of herbarium specimen data in understanding floristic changes in Zimbabwe, the plant collections housed by the National Herbarium (SRGH) in Harare, Zimbabwe were utilized with historical specimens dating back to 1870. A list of naturalised plant taxa and collection data were compiled. A total of 2916 plant specimens were recorded, comprising of 401 taxa, 237 genera and 76 plant families. Twenty eight specimens (1.0%) were collected between 1870 and 1908, prior to the establishment of the National Herbarium in 1909 and 123 specimens (4.2%) were collected in the first 25 years of the establishment of the institute (1909-1934). Intensive collection of herbarium specimens of casual, naturalised and invasive alien plant species occurred between 1950 and 1970. This data demonstrates the utility of plant species data housed in the National Herbaria and how such data can be used to map floristic changes and patterns.

  16. Identification of DWI behavior patterns and methods for change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify patterns of behavior leading to driving while intoxicated (DWI), and to propose countermeasures for altering these patterns before they result in DWI. Two samples were studied: Los Angeles high school student...

  17. Microbiology and antimicrobial susceptibility of otitis externa: a changing pattern of antimicrobial resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heward, E; Cullen, M; Hobson, J

    2018-04-01

    Otitis externa is a common presentation to secondary care otolaryngology clinics. Despite this, few studies have investigated the microbiology and antimicrobial resistance of otitis externa. This study aimed to examine these issues. Analysis identified 302 swabs taken from 217 patients (100 male, 117 female), between 1 January 2015 and 30 March 2016, at our rapid access otolaryngology clinic. In total, 315 organisms were isolated; the most frequent was Pseudomonas aeruginosa (31.1 per cent), followed by candida species (22.9 per cent) and Staphylococcus aureus (11.7 per cent). P aeruginosa was sensitive to ciprofloxacin in 97.7 per cent of cases and to gentamicin in 78.4 per cent. Compared with studies worldwide, the relative proportions of different organisms causing otitis externa and the patterns of antimicrobial resistance differ. Increasing resistance of P aeruginosa to aminoglycosides demonstrates a changing pattern of antimicrobial resistance that has not been previously reported. Reassuringly, quinolone antibiotics remain highly effective when treating P aeruginosa.

  18. Paleoclimate Records from New Zealand Maar Lakes, Insights into ENSO Teleconnections and Climatic Events in the South (West) Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Nobes, D. C.; Striewski, B.

    2008-05-01

    The maar craters of the New Zealand Auckland Volcanic Field (36.5°S, 174.5°E) contain some of the highest resolution late-Quaternary paleoclimate records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we integrate laminae count results from recent drilling in the Hopua Crater with existing records from the nearby Onepoto Crater (Pepper et al., 2004). In total these records cover many thousands of years between the onset of the last glaciation maximum and the early mid-Holocene. The cores are strongly laminated. Individual laminae in both craters are very fine (sub-mm to mm scale) and form couplets which comprise a darker mineralogenic rich layer and a lighter diatomaceous layer. In places these couplets are annual, and may reflect seasonal algal blooms, but in other sections of the record, notably through the late-Glacial and Holocene, the couplets are deposited at inter-annual time scales. Spectral analyses of couplet thickness counts using a fast Fourier transform (FFT) with 64 to 256-year running windows, and a 50 per cent overlap indicate strong spectral power during the LGM and markedly weaker power during both the deglaciation and early Holocene. In fact there is no spectral strength for most of these periods. Three brief (centennial duration) events punctuate this extended period of low spectral power. These occur at c. 16 ka, c. 14.8 ka and during the early Holocene. They display spectral power in the 5-7yr ENSO window and also at longer time intervals that may be consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We infer the local switching on (or up) of ENSO and PDO teleconnections and suspect these are embedded in circum-polar circulation changes. In addition to these spectral power episodes, there is a general increase in the number of couplet cycles per century between the deglaciation and the early mid-Holocene. This matches observations from Equador and Peru and suggests that trans-Pacific ENSO responses are in phase between western tropical South America and New

  19. Pattern changes in determinants of Chinese emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Zhifu; Meng, Jing; Guan, Dabo; Shan, Yuli; Liu, Zhu; Wang, Yutao; Feng, Kuishuang; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2017-07-01

    The Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development—a ‘new normal’. We use a structural decomposition analysis and environmental input-output analysis to estimate the determinants of China’s carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China’s imports are linked to a global multi-regional input-output model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project database to calculate the embodied CO2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China’s carbon emission growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO2 emissions induced by China’s exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the ‘new normal’, the strongest factors that offset CO2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China’s CO2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China’s carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6%-29.1% during 2010-2012.

  20. Changes of gait pattern in children with Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 1A: a 18 months follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrarin, Maurizio; Lencioni, Tiziana; Rabuffetti, Marco; Moroni, Isabella; Pagliano, Emanuela; Pareyson, Davide

    2013-07-02

    In a previous study we identified 3 different gait patterns in a group of children with CMT1A disease: Normal-like (NL), Foot-drop (FD), Foot-drop and Push-off Deficit (FD&POD). Goal of the present study was to perform a follow-up evaluation of the same group of patients to analyze possible changes of gait features in relation to disease progression or specific therapy. Nineteen children with CMT1A were evaluated clinically (CMT-Examination Score and Overall Neuropathy Limitation Scale) and through gait analysis 18.2±1.5 months after a baseline evaluation. Meanwhile, 3 of them had foot surgery. Fifteen out of the 16 non-operated patients significantly changed at least one of the two parameters associated to primary signs (FD and/or POD). Eleven participants worsened at least one parameter and 9 improved one parameter. CMTES significantly worsened for the group of non-operated patients. However, there was no change in CMTES score in 4 patients and in ONLS score in 11. At subgroup level, participants originally belonging to NL group showed a trend towards a foot-drop deficit (-15%, ns); FD and FD&POD subgroups did not change their primary signs, although significant changes were identified individually. All 3 patients operated have improved push-off and proximal joint patterns during walking. Clinical scores did not change within any sub-group. Subtle changes occurring in 1.5 year in gait features of CMT1A children can be instrumentally identified. Such changes show a large inter-subject variability, with some patients even improving their walking pattern. There is anecdotal evidence that foot surgery may improve the push-off phase of gait.

  1. The Changing Patterns of Individual and School Effects on Educational Transitions. Evidence from Catalan Data (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benito, Ricard; Alegre, Miquel Angel

    2012-01-01

    Background: This article engages with the tradition of educational transitions research, particularly with its attempt to evaluate the effect of exogenous variables on educational attainment. The study revisits a number of hypotheses that have attempted to explain the changing patterns of such effects throughout students' educational career,…

  2. Investigation on the Patterns of Global Vegetation Change Using a Satellite-Sensed Vegetation Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainong Li

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The pattern of vegetation change in response to global change still remains a controversial issue. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset compiled by the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS was used for analysis. For the period 1982–2006, GIMMS-NDVI analysis indicated that monthly NDVI changes show homogenous trends in middle and high latitude areas in the northern hemisphere and within, or near, the Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn; with obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity on a global scale over the past two decades. The former areas featured increasing vegetation activity during growth seasons, and the latter areas experienced an even greater amplitude in places where precipitation is adequate. The discussion suggests that one should be cautious of using the NDVI time-series to analyze local vegetation dynamics because of its coarse resolution and uncertainties.

  3. The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junhu; Wang, Huanjiong; Ge, Quansheng

    2014-05-01

    Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species' phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39-43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71-85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was -3.93 to 3.30 days °C(-1) and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C⁻¹, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.

  4. Large-scale patterns of turnover and Basal area change in Andean forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selene Báez

    Full Text Available General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century.

  5. Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Montanari

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long-term fluctuations. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and persistence properties, to gain a better understanding of natural patterns, and in particular long-term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

  6. Hydrology of the Po River: looking for changing patterns in river discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montanari, A.

    2012-05-01

    Scientists and public administrators are devoting increasing attention to the Po River, in Italy, in view of concerns related to the impact of increasing urbanisation and exploitation of water resources. A better understanding of the hydrological regime of the river is necessary to improve water resources management and flood protection. In particular, the analysis of the effects of hydrological and climatic change is crucial for planning sustainable development and economic growth. An extremely interesting issue is to inspect to what extent river flows can be naturally affected by the occurrence of long periods of water abundance or scarcity, which can be erroneously interpreted as irreversible changes due to human impact. In fact, drought and flood periods alternatively occurred in the recent past in the form of long term cycles. This paper presents advanced graphical and analytical methods to gain a better understanding of the temporal distribution of the Po River discharge. In particular, we present an analysis of river flow variability and memory properties to better understand natural patterns and in particular long term changes, which may affect the future flood risk and availability of water resources.

  7. Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J.

    2017-12-01

    Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016

  8. Dietary patterns and changes in body composition in children between 9 and 11 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew D. A. C.; Emmett, Pauline M.; Newby, P. K.; Northstone, Kate

    2014-01-01

    Objective Childhood obesity is rising and dietary intake is a potentially modifiable factor that plays an important role in its development. We aim to investigate the association between dietary patterns, obtained through principal components analysis and gains in fat and lean mass in childhood. Design Diet diaries at 10 years of age collected from children taking part in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Body composition was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at 9 and 11. Setting Longitudinal birth cohort. Subjects 3911 children with complete data. Results There was an association between the Health Aware (positive loadings on high-fiber bread, and fruits and vegetables; negative loadings on chips, crisps, processed meat, and soft drinks) pattern score and decreased fat mass gain in girls. After adjusting for confounders, an increase of 1 standard deviation (sd) in this score led to an estimated 1.2% decrease in fat mass gain in valid-reporters and 2.1% in under-reporters. A similar decrease was found only in under-reporting boys. There was also an association between the Packed Lunch (high consumption of white bread, sandwich fillings, and snacks) pattern score and decreased fat mass gain (1.1% per sd) in valid-reporting but not under-reporting girls. The main association with lean mass gain was an increase with Packed Lunch pattern score in valid-reporting boys only. Conclusions There is a small association between dietary patterns and change in fat mass in mid-childhood. Differences between under- and valid-reporters emphasize the need to consider valid-reporters separately in such studies. PMID:25018688

  9. Dietary patterns and changes in body composition in children between 9 and 11 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. A. C. Smith

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Childhood obesity is rising and dietary intake is a potentially modifiable factor that plays an important role in its development. We aim to investigate the association between dietary patterns, obtained through principal components analysis and gains in fat and lean mass in childhood. Design: Diet diaries at 10 years of age collected from children taking part in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Body composition was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at 9 and 11. Setting: Longitudinal birth cohort. Subjects: 3911 children with complete data. Results: There was an association between the Health Aware (positive loadings on high-fiber bread, and fruits and vegetables; negative loadings on chips, crisps, processed meat, and soft drinks pattern score and decreased fat mass gain in girls. After adjusting for confounders, an increase of 1 standard deviation (sd in this score led to an estimated 1.2% decrease in fat mass gain in valid-reporters and 2.1% in under-reporters. A similar decrease was found only in under-reporting boys. There was also an association between the Packed Lunch (high consumption of white bread, sandwich fillings, and snacks pattern score and decreased fat mass gain (1.1% per sd in valid-reporting but not under-reporting girls. The main association with lean mass gain was an increase with Packed Lunch pattern score in valid-reporting boys only. Conclusions: There is a small association between dietary patterns and change in fat mass in mid-childhood. Differences between under- and valid-reporters emphasize the need to consider valid-reporters separately in such studies.

  10. Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

    2016-08-01

    A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

  11. Historical Patterns and Drivers of Spatial Changes in Recreational Fishing Activity in Puget Sound, Washington.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne H Beaudreau

    Full Text Available Small-scale fisheries are the primary users of many coastal fish stocks; yet, spatial and temporal patterns of recreational and subsistence fishing in coastal marine ecosystems are poorly documented. Knowledge about the spatial distribution of fishing activities can inform place-based management that balances species conservation with opportunities for recreation and subsistence. We used a participatory mapping approach to document changes in spatial fishing patterns of 80 boat-based recreational anglers from 1950 to 2010 in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Hand-drawn fishing areas for salmon, rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs were digitized and analyzed in a Geographic Information System. We found that recreational fishing has spanned the majority of Puget Sound since the 1950s, with the heaviest use limited to small areas of central and northern Puget Sound. People are still fishing in the same places they were decades ago, with relatively little change in specific locations despite widespread declines in salmon and bottomfish populations during the second half of the 20th century. While the location of core fishing areas remained consistent, the size of those areas and intensity of use changed over time. The size of fishing areas increased through the 2000s for salmon but declined after the 1970s and 1980s for rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs. Our results suggest that the spatial extent of recreational bottomfishing increased after the 1960s, when the availability of motorized vessels and advanced fish-finding technologies allowed anglers to expand their scope beyond localized angling from piers and boathouses. Respondents offered a wide range of reasons for shifts in fishing areas over time, reflecting substantial individual variation in motivations and behaviors. Changes in fishing areas were most commonly attributed to changes in residence and declines in target species and least tied to fishery regulations, despite the implementation of at

  12. Historical Patterns and Drivers of Spatial Changes in Recreational Fishing Activity in Puget Sound, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaudreau, Anne H.; Whitney, Emily J.

    2016-01-01

    Small-scale fisheries are the primary users of many coastal fish stocks; yet, spatial and temporal patterns of recreational and subsistence fishing in coastal marine ecosystems are poorly documented. Knowledge about the spatial distribution of fishing activities can inform place-based management that balances species conservation with opportunities for recreation and subsistence. We used a participatory mapping approach to document changes in spatial fishing patterns of 80 boat-based recreational anglers from 1950 to 2010 in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Hand-drawn fishing areas for salmon, rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs were digitized and analyzed in a Geographic Information System. We found that recreational fishing has spanned the majority of Puget Sound since the 1950s, with the heaviest use limited to small areas of central and northern Puget Sound. People are still fishing in the same places they were decades ago, with relatively little change in specific locations despite widespread declines in salmon and bottomfish populations during the second half of the 20th century. While the location of core fishing areas remained consistent, the size of those areas and intensity of use changed over time. The size of fishing areas increased through the 2000s for salmon but declined after the 1970s and 1980s for rockfishes, flatfishes, and crabs. Our results suggest that the spatial extent of recreational bottomfishing increased after the 1960s, when the availability of motorized vessels and advanced fish-finding technologies allowed anglers to expand their scope beyond localized angling from piers and boathouses. Respondents offered a wide range of reasons for shifts in fishing areas over time, reflecting substantial individual variation in motivations and behaviors. Changes in fishing areas were most commonly attributed to changes in residence and declines in target species and least tied to fishery regulations, despite the implementation of at least 25 marine

  13. Changing Age and Household Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Højbjerg Jacobsen, Rasmus; Hougaard Jensen, Svend E.

    2014-01-01

    finances by almost 1% of GDP on the yearly budget. While the net fiscal effect of changing household structures is minor, the gross effects are substantial. In a future characterized by population ageing, public finances may be adversely affected by changes in both age and household structures, thus...

  14. Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

    2015-02-20

    The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

  15. Change of Land Use Patterns in the Areas Close to the Airport Development Area and Some Implicating Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanokporn Swangjang

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the description of land use change in the suburbs near Suvarnabhumi International Airport, with a focus on land use patterns before and during airport development. According to geographic information system (GIS, land use patterns are categorized into three main groups, namely intensive urban development land, areas developed under environmental conditions, and natural land. Steps of land use changes, land use planning and related factors concerning number of population, dwelling units and factories were analyzed. In the short term, urban development dramatically increases by 39.97% whereas the areas developed under environmental conditions decreased by 37.52%, with significant correlation (P < 0.05. The natural land which is typically grassland and watercourses changed insignificantly (P > 0.05. Urbanization of the areas where the airport is located increased between 10.07% and 15.57%. The changes of land use comply with the Integrated Town and Country Planning. The areas where urbanization is small are under the area designated as the green area. Urban expansion is mainly a result of increase in residential areas which is closely related to number of population. Such changes indicate a need for more effective urban development planning and management to conserve environmental quality.

  16. Short-Term Effects of Changing Precipitation Patterns on Shrub-Steppe Grasslands: Seasonal Watering Is More Important than Frequency of Watering Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Densmore-McCulloch, Justine A; Thompson, Donald L; Fraser, Lauchlan H

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns. Droughts may become longer and more frequent, and the timing and intensity of precipitation may change. We tested how shifting precipitation patterns, both seasonally and by frequency of events, affects soil nitrogen availability, plant biomass and diversity in a shrub-steppe temperate grassland along a natural productivity gradient in Lac du Bois Grasslands Protected Area near Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada. We manipulated seasonal watering patterns by either exclusively watering in the spring or the fall. To simulate spring precipitation we restricted precipitation inputs in the fall, then added 50% more water than the long term average in the spring, and vice-versa for the fall precipitation treatment. Overall, the amount of precipitation remained roughly the same. We manipulated the frequency of rainfall events by either applying water weekly (frequent) or monthly (intensive). After 2 years, changes in the seasonality of watering had greater effects on plant biomass and diversity than changes in the frequency of watering. Fall watering reduced biomass and increased species diversity, while spring watering had little effect. The reduction in biomass in fall watered treatments was due to a decline in grasses, but not forbs. Plant available N, measured by Plant Root Simulator (PRS)-probes, increased from spring to summer to fall, and was higher in fall watered treatments compared to spring watered treatments when measured in the fall. The only effect observed due to frequency of watering events was greater extractable soil N in monthly applied treatments compared to weekly watering treatments. Understanding the effects of changing precipitation patterns on grasslands will allow improved grassland conservation and management in the face of global climatic change, and here we show that if precipitation is more abundant in the fall, compared to the spring, grassland primary productivity will likely be

  17. Changes in Nuclear Orientation Patterns of Chromosome 11 during Mouse Plasmacytoma Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ann-Kristin Schmälter

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Studying changes in nuclear architecture is a unique approach toward the understanding of nuclear remodeling during tumor development. One aspect of nuclear architecture is the orientation of chromosomes in the three-dimensional nuclear space. We studied mouse chromosome 11 in lymphocytes of [T38HxBALB/c]N mice with a reciprocal translocation between chromosome X and 11 (T38HT(X;11 exhibiting a long chromosome T(11;X and a short chromosome T(X;11 and in fast-onset plasmacytomas (PCTs induced in the same strain. We determined the three-dimensional orientation of chromosome 11 using a mouse chromosome 11 specific multicolor banding probe. We also examined the nuclear position of the small translocation chromosome T(X;11 which contains cytoband 11E2 and parts of E1. Chromosomes can point either with their centromeric or with their telomeric end toward the nuclear center or periphery, or their position is found in parallel to the nuclear border. In T38HT(X;11 nuclei, the most frequently observed orientation pattern was with both chromosomes 11 in parallel to the nuclear border (“PP”. PCT cells showed nuclei with two or more copies of chromosome 11. In PCTs, the most frequent orientation pattern was with one chromosome in parallel and the other pointing with its centromeric end toward the nuclear periphery (“CP”. There is a significant difference between the orientation patterns observed in T38HT(X;11 and in PCT nuclei (P < .0001.

  18. How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, T.; Fuller, E.; Coleman, K.; Provost, M.; Pinsky, M. L.; St Martin, K.

    2016-02-01

    We know climate is changing and fish are moving in response to those changes. But we understand less about how harvesters are responding to these changes in fish distribution and the ramifications of those changes for fishing communities. Ecological and evolutionary theory suggests that organisms must move, adapt, or die in response to environmental changes, and a related frame may be relevant for human harvesters in the face of climate change. Furthermore, research suggests that there may be a portfolio effect: a wider diversity of catch may buffer harvesters from some effects of climate change. To get at these questions, we explored changes in fishing patterns among commercial fishing communities in the northeast US from 1997-2014 using NOAA-collected logbook data. We found that communities using more mobile gear (large trawl vessels) demonstrated a greater range of latitudinal shift than communities using any other gear. Latitudinal shift was also inversely related to species diversity of catch and port latitude in those communities: southern communities that caught few species shifted dramatically northward, and northern communities that caught many species did not demonstrate marked latitudinal shifts. Those communities that demonstrated larger latitudinal shifts also demonstrated smaller changes in catch composition than their more stationary counterparts. We also found that vessels are indeed leaving many, but not all, fisheries in this region. These results suggest that harvesters are moving, adapting, and leaving fisheries, and that there does appear to be a portfolio effect, with catch diversity mediating some of these responses. While these changes in fishing patterns cannot all be directly attributed to climate change per se, marine fishes in this region are shifting north rapidly, as is expected under climate change. This study provides a valuable test case for exploring the potential ramifications of climate change on coastal socio-ecological systems.

  19. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Guangyao; Zhang, Jianjun; Liu, Yu; Ning, Zheng; Fu, Bojie; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2017-09-01

    Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961-2011), showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space-time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i) the effect of precipitation and (ii) the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation-sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events) also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  20. Changes in Diversification Patterns and Signatures of Selection during the Evolution of Murinae-Associated Hantaviruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Castel

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last 50 years, hantaviruses have significantly affected public health worldwide, but the exact extent of the distribution of hantavirus diseases, species and lineages and the risk of their emergence into new geographic areas are still poorly known. In particular, the determinants of molecular evolution of hantaviruses circulating in different geographical areas or different host species are poorly documented. Yet, this understanding is essential for the establishment of more accurate scenarios of hantavirus emergence under different climatic and environmental constraints. In this study, we focused on Murinae-associated hantaviruses (mainly Seoul Dobrava and Hantaan virus using sequences available in GenBank and conducted several complementary phylogenetic inferences. We sought for signatures of selection and changes in patterns and rates of diversification in order to characterize hantaviruses’ molecular evolution at different geographical scales (global and local. We then investigated whether these events were localized in particular geographic areas. Our phylogenetic analyses supported the assumption that RNA virus molecular variations were under strong evolutionary constraints and revealed changes in patterns of diversification during the evolutionary history of hantaviruses. These analyses provide new knowledge on the molecular evolution of hantaviruses at different scales of time and space.

  1. Changing patterns of migration in Latin America: how can research develop intelligence for public health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baltica Cabieses

    Full Text Available Migration patterns in Latin America have changed significantly in recent decades, particularly since the onset of global recession in 2007. These recent economic changes have highlighted and exacerbated the weakness of evidence from Latin America regarding migration-a crucial determinant of health. Migration patterns are constantly evolving in Latin America, but research on migration has not developed at the same speed. This article focuses on the need for better understanding of the living conditions and health of migrant populations in Latin America within the context of the recent global recession. The authors explain how new data on migrant well-being could be obtained through improved evidence from censuses and ongoing research surveys to 1 better inform policy-makers about the needs of migrant populations in Latin America and 2 help determine better ways of reaching undocumented immigrants. Longitudinal studies on immigrants in Latin America are essential for generating a better representation of migrant living conditions and health needs during the initial stages of immigration and over time. To help meet this need, the authors support the promotion of sustainable sources of data and evidence on the complex relationship between migration and health.

  2. Fringe patterns generated by micro-optical sensors for pattern recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamee, Kreangsak; Chaiwong, Khomyuth; Yothapakdee, Kriengsak; Yupapin, Preecha P

    2015-01-01

    We present a new result of pattern recognition generation scheme using a small-scale optical muscle sensing system, which consisted of an optical add-drop filter incorporating two nonlinear optical side ring resonators. When light from laser source enters into the system, the device is stimulated by an external physical parameter that introduces a change in the phase of light propagation within the sensing device, which can be formed by the interference fringe patterns. Results obtained have shown that the fringe patterns can be used to form the relationship between signal patterns and fringe pattern recognitions.

  3. Changing patterns of wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, R.G.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this paper was not to analyze the effects of global warming on wildlife disease patterns, but to serve as a springboard for future efforts to identify those wildlife diseases, including zoonotic diseases, that could be influenced the most by warming climates and to encourage the development of models to examine the potential effects. Hales et al. (1999) examined the relationship of the incidence of a vector-borne human disease, Dengue fever, and El Nino southern oscillations for South Pacific Island nations. The development of similar models on specific wildlife diseases which have environmental factors strongly associated with transmission would provide information and options for the future management of our wildlife resources.

  4. Prepregnancy Dietary Patterns Are Associated with Blood Lipid Level Changes During Pregnancy: A Prospective Cohort Study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshriqui, Ilana; Franco-Sena, Ana Beatriz; Farias, Dayana Rodrigues; Freitas-Vilela, Ana Amélia; Cunha, Diana Barbosa; Barros, Erica Guimarães; Emmett, Pauline M; Kac, Gilberto

    2017-07-01

    Physiologic adaptations lead to an increase in blood lipid levels during pregnancy, yet little is known about the influence of prepregnancy dietary patterns. To identify whether prepregnancy dietary patterns that explain the consumption of fiber, energy, and saturated fat are associated with blood lipid levels throughout pregnancy. Prospective cohort study, with data collection at gestational weeks 5 to 13, 20 to 26, and 30 to 36. A food frequency questionnaire was administered at baseline (gestational week 5 to 13). Women with singleton pregnancy (N=299) aged 20 to 40 years, without infectious/chronic disease (except obesity) were enrolled in the study. One hundred ninety-nine women were included in the final analysis. The study took place at a prenatal service of a public health care center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during the period from 2009 to 2012. Total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglyceride levels, measured at all trimesters. Dietary patterns were derived by reduced rank regression. Fiber density, dietary energy density, and percent energy from saturated fat were response variables. Crude and adjusted longitudinal linear mixed-effects regression models were performed to account for confounders and mediators. Interaction terms between dietary pattern and gestational week were tested. Fast Food and Candies; Vegetables and Dairy; and Beans, Bread, and Fat patterns were derived. Our Fast Food and Candies pattern was positively associated with triglyceride level (β=4.961, 95% CI 0.945 to 8.977; P=0.015). In the HDL-C rate of change prediction, significant interactions were observed between both the Fast Food and Candies and Vegetables and Dairy patterns and gestational week (β=-.053, 95% CI -0.101 to -0.004; P=0.035 and β=.055, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.112; P=0.060, respectively). The Beans, Bread, and Fat pattern was not associated with blood lipid levels. Prepregnancy dietary patterns

  5. Changing patterns of drug-resistant Shigella isolates in egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abd-Elmeged, Ghada M; Khairy, Rasha M; Abo-Eloyoon, Sahar M; Abdelwahab, Sayed F

    2015-06-01

    The emergence of multidrug resistance (MDR) is a serious problem in treating shigellosis. There are limited existing data examining the change in the antimicrobial resistance profile of Shigella in Egypt. We previously reported that 58% of the Shigella isolates in Egypt were resistant to at least one member of the three different antimicrobial groups. This study was performed to determine the antimicrobial resistance profile of Shigella, determine their possible mechanisms of resistance, and compare their resistance profile to those reported 20 years ago. Stool samples were collected from 500 subjects and processed for the isolation and identification of Shigella. The susceptibility of the isolates to 11 different antimicrobials was determined using the disc diffusion method. Of 500 stool cultures, 24 (4.8%) samples were positive for Shigella. There was a high percentage of resistance to ampicillin (88%), tetracycline (83%), and sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (75%). Also, there was a moderate percentage of resistance to chloramphenicol (46%), streptomycin (42%), ceftazidime (33%), and cefotaxime (25%). A lower percentage of resistance was recorded for amikacin, nalidixic acid (17% each), and ofloxacin (7%), while no resistance was found to ciprofloxacin (0%). Twenty-one of the isolates (88%) were resistant to at least three different antimicrobial groups (indicating MDR). The average number of antimicrobial agents to which the Shigella isolates were resistant was 4.3±1.4, while it was 3.4±1.5 in the same locality in 1994. These data demonstrate that there is a marked increase in MDR and change in the resistance patterns of Shigella over the past 20 years.

  6. Bisphenol A disrupts the temporal pattern of histofunctional changes in the female reproductive tract of Caiman latirostris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galoppo, Germán H; Canesini, Guillermina; Tavalieri, Yamil E; Stoker, Cora; Kass, Laura; Luque, Enrique H; Muñoz-de-Toro, Mónica

    2017-12-01

    Recently, we have described the ontogeny of histofunctional differentiation changes in the oviduct of Caiman latirostris. The expression of estrogen receptor alpha and progesterone receptor shows that the caiman oviduct could be a target of the action of xenoestrogens such as the widely environmentally present Bisphenol A (BPA), early in life. The aims of this study were: to complement oviduct characterization by establishing the ontogenetic changes in androgen receptor (AR) expression and assessing the effects of early postnatal exposure to 17-β-estradiol (E2) or BPA on the histofunctional features of the oviduct. AR was expressed in all the stages studied. The spatial pattern of AR immunostaining changed from neonatal to juvenile caimans. In the luminal epithelium, changes were at the subcellular level, from cytoplasmic to nuclear. In the subepithelium, although both cytoplasmic and nuclear AR expression was observed, changes were mainly at tissue level, from the subepithelial compartment to the outer muscular layer. The oviduct was highly sensitive to E2 and BPA at the early postnatal developmental stage. E2- and BPA-exposed caimans showed increased luminal epithelial height and higher proliferative activity. Changes in histomorphological features (measured by a scoring system), steroid hormone receptors, collagen remodeling and muscle-associated proteins suggest a precocious oviduct histofunctional differentiation in E2- and BPA-exposed caimans. The modification of the temporal pattern of oviductal biomarkers suggests that organizational changes could impair C. latirostris reproductive health later in life. The alterations in the caiman female reproductive tract exposed to BPA highlight the importance of preserving aquatic environments from plastic pollution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

    2010-06-15

    A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

  8. Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

    2017-04-01

    Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive

  9. A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: Interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas Pappas; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew George; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

    2018-06-01

    Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951-2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models.

  10. The Slow:Fast substitution ratio reveals changing patterns of natural selection in gamma-proteobacterial genomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alm, Eric; Shapiro, B. Jesse

    2009-04-15

    Different microbial species are thought to occupy distinct ecological niches, subjecting each species to unique selective constraints, which may leave a recognizable signal in their genomes. Thus, it may be possible to extract insight into the genetic basis of ecological differences among lineages by identifying unusual patterns of substitutions in orthologous gene or protein sequences. We use the ratio of substitutions in slow versus fast-evolving sites (nucleotides in DNA, or amino acids in protein sequence) to quantify deviations from the typical pattern of selective constraint observed across bacterial lineages. We propose that elevated S:F in one branch (an excess of slow-site substitutions) can indicate a functionally-relevant change, due to either positive selection or relaxed evolutionary constraint. In a genome-wide comparative study of gamma-proteobacterial proteins, we find that cell-surface proteins involved with motility and secretion functions often have high S:F ratios, while information-processing genes do not. Change in evolutionary constraints in some species is evidenced by increased S:F ratios within functionally-related sets of genes (e.g., energy production in Pseudomonas fluorescens), while other species apparently evolve mostly by drift (e.g., uniformly elevated S:F across most genes in Buchnera spp.). Overall, S:F reveals several species-specific, protein-level changes with potential functional/ecological importance. As microbial genome projects yield more species-rich gene-trees, the S:F ratio will become an increasingly powerful tool for uncovering functional genetic differences among species.

  11. Changes in the serum protein electrophoretic pattern in lambs during the first month of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oskar Nagy

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies of the changes in serum protein pattern in the neonatal period in animals are still limited. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the changes in the concentrations of serum protein fractions in 7 clinically healthy merino lambs (4 males, 3 females during their first month of life. The first blood sampling was performed before the colostrum intake and then at 1, 2, 7, 14 and 30 days of age. Blood serum was analysed for total serum protein concentrations and for the relative and absolute values of serum protein fractions - albumin, alpha1- (α1, alpha2- (α2, beta- (β, and gamma- (γ globulins. The results showed a significant effect of age on the serum total protein concentrations and for all the protein fractions. The concentrations of total proteins and γ-globulins increased significantly 1 day after the colostrum intake (P P 1-globulins significantly decreased during the first month of life (P 2- and β-globulins increased significantly from birth till the end of the monitored period (P < 0.001. Our results suggest that the serum protein electrophoretic pattern in growing lambs is significantly influenced by the age of the evaluated animal, and this should be taken into consideration when interpreting the serum protein profile. Our findings extend existing knowledge about significant changes in the protein profile associated with the physiological adaptation process in the neonatal period in young animals.

  12. Climate change induced by Southern Hemisphere desertification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong

    2017-12-01

    Some 10-20% of global dry-lands are already degraded, and the ongoing desertification threatens the world's poorest populations. Studies on desertification effects are essential for humans to adapt to the environmental challenges posed by desertification. Given the importance of the much larger southern ocean to the global climate and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate changes in phase with those in the north, the biogeophysical effects of the SH desertification on climate are assessed using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, MPM-2. This analysis focuses on differences in climate among the averages of simulations with desert expansion in different latitude bands by year 2000. The localized desertification causes significant global changes in temperature and precipitation as well as surface albedo. On the global scale, cooling dominates the SH desertification effects. However, the biogeophysical effects are most significant in regions with desertification, and the cooling is also prominent in northern mid-latitudes. Desert expansion in 15°-30°S reveals statistically most significant cooling and increased precipitation over the forcing regions during spring. The global and regional scale responses from desertification imply the climate teleconnection and address the importance of the effects from the SH which are contingent on the location of the forcing. Our study indicates that biogeophysical mechanisms of land cover changes in the SH need to be accounted for in the assessment of land management options especially for latitude band over 15°-30°S.

  13. Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan J. Mantua

    2009-01-01

    For much of the 20th century a clear north-south inverse production pattern for Pacific salmon had a time dynamic that closely followed that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the dominant pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Total Alaska salmon production was high during warm regimes of the PDO, and total Alaska salmon...

  14. Impacts of land use change scenarios on hydrology and land use patterns in the Wu-Tu watershed in Northern Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lin Yu-Pin,; Hong Nien-Ming,; Wu Pei-Jung,; Wu Chen-Fa,; Verburg, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    Developing an approach for simulating and assessing land use changes and their effects on land use patterns and hydrological processes at the watershed level is essential in land use and water resource planning and management. This study provided a novel approach that combines a land use change

  15. Acidosis-Induced Changes in Proteome Patterns of the Prostate Cancer-Derived Tumor Cell Line AT-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihling, Angelika; Ihling, Christian H; Sinz, Andrea; Gekle, Michael

    2015-09-04

    Under various pathological conditions, such as inflammation, ischemia and in solid tumors, physiological parameters (local oxygen tension or extracellular pH) show distinct tissue abnormalities (hypoxia and acidosis). For tumors, the prevailing microenvironment exerts a strong influence on the phenotype with respect to proliferation, invasion, and metastasis formation and therefore influences prognosis. In this study, we investigate the impact of extracellular metabolic acidosis (pH 7.4 versus 6.6) on the proteome patterns of a prostate cancer-derived tumor cell type (AT-1) using isobaric labeling and LC-MS/MS analysis. In total, 2710 proteins were identified and quantified across four biological replicates, of which seven were significantly affected with changes >50% and used for validation. Glucose transporter 1 and farnesyl pyrophosphatase were found to be down-regulated after 48 h of acidic treatment, and metallothionein 2A was reduced after 24 h and returned to control values after 48 h. After 24 and 48 h at pH 6.6, glutathione S transferase A3 and NAD(P)H dehydrogenase 1, cellular retinoic acid-binding protein 2, and Na-bicarbonate transporter 3 levels were found to be increased. The changes in protein levels were confirmed by transcriptome and functional analyses. In addition to the experimental in-depth investigation of proteins with changes >50%, functional profiling (statistical enrichment analysis) including proteins with changes >20% revealed that acidosis upregulates GSH metabolic processes, citric acid cycle, and respiratory electron transport. Metabolism of lipids and cholesterol biosynthesis were downregulated. Our data comprise the first comprehensive report on acidosis-induced changes in proteome patterns of a tumor cell line.

  16. Consumption, investment and unemployment: SVAR tests of the effects of changes in the consumption-saving pattern

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Bande-Ramudo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that permanent shifts in the consumption-saving pattern will have permanent effects on investment, with subsequent consequences for the unemployment rate, by estimating a structural vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy. Our results suggest a significant impact of consumption shocks on unemployment through changes in investment.

  17. A model of phone call intervention in sensitizing the change of dietary pattern - doi:10.5020/18061230.2010.p136

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Corrêa Chaves

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To propose a model of phone call intervention for changing dietary patterns and to assess its effectiveness. Method: A study carried out at the Health Promotion School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, with 27 subjects, 3-5 phone calls contacts per user, by means of which were given orientations and interventions on the principles of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy and the Transtheoretical Model on healthy eating. We analyzed the variables weight and body mass index, dietary patterns and overall stage of motivation to change. The data were submitted to analysis of variance with repeated measures at different stages of evaluation: pre-contact, 3rd and 5th phone calls. Results: After intervention, users showed a change in eating behavior in the third contact, and change occurred in weight and BMI in one patient. All findings were not statistically significant. There was improvement in the motivation to acquire new eating habits, also not significant. Conclusion: There was a slight change in feeding behavior, the motivation to change improved for all participants, without, however, have been effective in this type of approach.

  18. The Changing Pattern of Nutrition Intake by Social Class in Contemporary China, 1991-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhun; Zhang, Wei

    2017-11-01

    To explore the changing pattern of nutrition intake by social class in contemporary China. We defined social class in 2 ways. The first definition was based on employment, and the second definition was based on per capita household income levels. We used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2011 to show the changes in the relation between social class and nutrition intake. The relation between social class and nutrition intake in China changed significantly within the 2 decades. For example, in the early 1990s, the lowest social class (defined by employment or income) had more caloric intake than did the highest social class; 20 years later, however, the relation reversed, and the lowest social class consumed significantly fewer calories. China has seen a great reversal in its social class-nutrition relationship since the early 1990s. Our study calls for wider recognition that insufficient consumption of food and nutrition is increasingly an issue for people in the lower social classes in China.

  19. Dietary patterns predict changes in two-hour post-oral glucose tolerance test plasma glucose concentrations in middle-aged adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Cathrine; Toft, Ulla; Tetens, Inge; Carstensen, Bendix; Jørgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2009-03-01

    We examined whether the adherence to major dietary patterns at baseline of 5824 nondiabetic Danes (30-60 y) enrolled in the nonpharmacological Inter99 intervention predicted changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and postchallenge 2-h plasma glucose (2h-PG) concentrations during a 5 y period and whether a potential association was dependent on baseline glucose tolerance status. Through principal component analysis, a score for a traditional dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of high-fat sandwich spreads, red meat, potatoes, butter and lard, low-fat fish, sandwich meat, and sauces) and a score for a modern dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of vegetables, fruit, vegetable oil/vinegar dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals) were estimated for each person at baseline. Random effect models adjusting for relevant confounders were used to estimate changes in repetitive measures of FPG and 2h-PG. A higher modern score (of 1 SD) predicted an annual decrease in 2h-PG of 0.015 mmol/L (P dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals.

  20. Spatio-temporal patterns of the effects of precipitation variability and land use/cover changes on long-term changes in sediment yield in the Loess Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Within China's Loess Plateau there have been concerted revegetation efforts and engineering measures since the 1950s aimed at reducing soil erosion and land degradation. As a result, annual streamflow, sediment yield, and sediment concentration have all decreased considerably. Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC was the dominant factor, contributing over 70 % of the sediment load reduction, whereas the contribution of precipitation was less than 30 %. In this study, we use 50-year time series data (1961–2011, showing decreasing trends in the annual sediment loads of 15 catchments, to generate spatio-temporal patterns in the effects of LUCC and precipitation variability on sediment yield. The space–time variability of sediment yield was expressed notionally as a product of two factors representing (i the effect of precipitation and (ii the fraction of treated land surface area. Under minimal LUCC, the square root of annual sediment yield varied linearly with precipitation, with the precipitation–sediment load relationship showing coherent spatial patterns amongst the catchments. As the LUCC increased and took effect, the changes in sediment yield pattern depended more on engineering measures and vegetation restoration campaign, and the within-year rainfall patterns (especially storm events also played an important role. The effect of LUCC is expressed in terms of a sediment coefficient, i.e., the ratio of annual sediment yield to annual precipitation. Sediment coefficients showed a steady decrease over the study period, following a linear decreasing function of the fraction of treated land surface area. In this way, the study has brought out the separate roles of precipitation variability and LUCC in controlling spatio-temporal patterns of sediment yield at catchment scale.

  1. Diabetes Changes Symptoms Cluster Patterns in Persons Living With HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuniga, Julie Ann; Bose, Eliezer; Park, Jungmin; Lapiz-Bluhm, M Danet; García, Alexandra A

    Approximately 10-15% of persons living with HIV (PLWH) have a comorbid diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM). Both of these long-term chronic conditions are associated with high rates of symptom burden. The purpose of our study was to describe symptom patterns for PLWH with DM (PLWH+DM) using a large secondary dataset. The prevalence, burden, and bothersomeness of symptoms reported by patients in routine clinic visits during 2015 were assessed using the 20-item HIV Symptom Index. Principal component analysis was used to identify symptom clusters. Three main clusters were identified: (a) neurological/psychological, (b) gastrointestinal/flu-like, and (c) physical changes. The most prevalent symptoms were fatigue, poor sleep, aches, neuropathy, and sadness. When compared to a previous symptom study with PLWH, symptoms clustered differently in our sample of patients with dual diagnoses of HIV and diabetes. Clinicians should appropriately assess symptoms for their patients' comorbid conditions. Copyright © 2017 Association of Nurses in AIDS Care. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Changes in Parthenogenetic Imprinting Patterns during Reprogramming by Cell Fusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Sik Jang

    Full Text Available Differentiated somatic cells can be reprogrammed into the pluripotent state by cell-cell fusion. In the pluripotent state, reprogrammed cells may then self-renew and differentiate into all three germ layers. Fusion-induced reprogramming also epigenetically modifies the somatic cell genome through DNA demethylation, X chromosome reactivation, and histone modification. In this study, we investigated whether fusion with embryonic stem cells (ESCs also reprograms genomic imprinting patterns in somatic cells. In particular, we examined imprinting changes in parthenogenetic neural stem cells fused with biparental ESCs, as well as in biparental neural stem cells fused with parthenogenetic ESCs. The resulting hybrid cells expressed the pluripotency markers Oct4 and Nanog. In addition, methylation of several imprinted genes except Peg3 was comparable between hybrid cells and ESCs. This finding indicates that reprogramming by cell fusion does not necessarily reverse the status of all imprinted genes to the state of pluripotent fusion partner.

  3. Respiratory pattern changes during costovertebral joint movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, R

    1980-05-01

    Experiments were conducted to determine if costovertebral joint manipulation (CVJM) could influence the respiratory pattern. Phrenic efferent activity (PA) was monitored in dogs that were anesthetized with Dial-urethane, vagotomized, paralyzed, and artificially ventilated. Ribs 6-10 (bilaterally) were cut and separated from ribs 5-11. Branches of thoracic nerves 5-11 were cut, leaving only the joint nerve supply intact. Manual joint movement in an inspiratory or expiratory direction had an inhibitory effect on PA. Sustained displacement of the ribs could inhibit PA for a duration equal to numerous respiratory cycles. CVJM in synchrony with PA resulted in an increased respiratory rate. The inspiratory inhibitory effect of joint receptor stimulation was elicited with manual chest compression in vagotomized spontaneously breathing dogs, but not with artificial lung inflation or deflation. It is concluded that the effect of CVJM on the respiratory pattern is due to stimulation of joint mechanoreceptors, and that they exert their influence in part via the medullary-pontine rhythm generator.

  4. Repositioning through Culture: Testing Change in Connectivity Patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Plaza

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Symbolic knowledge-driven innovations can play an important role in the economic development of cities and regions. Cultural events and infrastructures can act as powerful connectivity engines, generating new connections, rewiring links, and repositioning institutions/cities/regions on the Internet map. Within this framework, this paper aims to contribute to the analytical understanding of culture-led repositioning. For this purpose we perform regression analysis with cultural networks (observational cross-sectional network data from digital media for a specific cultural case study: the Basque Culinary Center (BCC, a higher education faculty of haute cuisine promoted by the University of Mondragon along with a group of Michelin-starred chefs. Results show that a cultural sector, such as haute cuisine, can contribute to structural changes in connectivity patterns, putting an institution/city/region on the media map. It is the connection (in the online press of the BCC to the influential Michelin-starred chefs that can fuel the accumulation of press articles (media items on the BCC; and it is precisely this accumulation of press articles that can impact BCC revenues. Put differently, the co-branding between the influential Michelin chefs and the BCC may have put the BCC on the press map, promoting new student registrations and fostering Basque haute cuisine. The main contribution of this article is a prototype of regression analysis to test repositioning with network data.

  5. Uncovering the role of the East Asian jet stream and heterogeneities in atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

    2018-01-30

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert major socioeconomic repercussions along the US West Coast by inducing heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, and storm surge. Despite the significant societal and economic repercussions of these storms, our understanding of the physical drivers responsible for their interannual variability is limited, with different climate modes identified as possible mechanisms. Here we show that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnections/patterns and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) exhibit a strong linkage with the total frequency of ARs making landfall over the western United States, much stronger than the other potential climate modes previously considered. While our findings indicate that the PJ pattern and EASJ are the most relevant climate modes driving the overall AR activity, we also uncover heterogeneities in AR tracks. Specifically, we show that not all ARs making landfall along the West Coast come from a single population, but rather that it is possible to stratify these storms into three clusters. While the PJ pattern and EASJ are major drivers of AR activity for two clusters, the cluster that primarily affects the US Southwest is largely driven by other climate modes [El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)]. Therefore, important regional differences exist and this information can substantially enhance our ability to predict and prepare for these storms and their impacts.

  6. MAMP (microbe-associated molecular pattern)-induced changes in plasma membrane-associated proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlíková, Hana; Solanský, Martin; Hrdinová, Vendula; Šedo, Ondrej; Kašparovský, Tomáš; Hejátko, Jan; Lochman, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Plant plasma membrane associated proteins play significant roles in Microbe-Associated Molecular Pattern (MAMP) mediated defence responses including signal transduction, membrane transport or energetic metabolism. To elucidate the dynamics of proteins associated with plasma membrane in response to cryptogein, a well-known MAMP of defence reaction secreted by the oomycete Phytophthora cryptogea, 2D-Blue Native/SDS gel electrophoresis of plasma membrane fractions was employed. This approach revealed 21 up- or down-regulated protein spots of which 15 were successfully identified as proteins related to transport through plasma membrane, vesicle trafficking, and metabolic enzymes including cytosolic NADP-malic enzyme and glutamine synthetase. Observed changes in proteins were also confirmed on transcriptional level by qRT-PCR analysis. In addition, a significantly decreased accumulation of transcripts observed after employment of a mutant variant of cryptogein Leu41Phe, exhibiting a conspicuous defect in induction of resistance, sustains the contribution of identified proteins in cryptogein-triggered cellular responses. Our data provide further evidence for dynamic MAMP-induced changes in plasma membrane associated proteins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Wharton; Matthias Falk

    2016-01-01

    We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running...

  8. Patterns of individual change in a parenting program for child maltreatment and their relation to family and professional environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, S; Rodrigo, M J; Máiquez, M L

    2014-03-01

    In the area of child maltreatment prevention, little is known about the typology of changes that individuals undergo in response to parent-training interventions. In this study, we examined the patterns of change observed in parents immediately after their completion of the Apoyo Personal y Familiar (APF, Personal and Family Support) parenting program. We identified five clusters and classified 496 parents according to two criteria: (a) the amount of pre-post changes (total or partial) as reflected in their self-reports on implicit theories, parental agency and childrearing practices, and (b) the positive, negative or mixed character of these changes. The study also included a follow-up of a subset of 95 participants intended to examine the extent to which the patterns of change identified in the first part of the study might predict the quality of the childrearing environment at home and the successful integration of the APF program into social services structures one year on. In this follow-up study, external evaluators observed families' home environments and collected the parenting program facilitators' self-reports on changes to their work environment. The evaluators found higher-quality childrearing environments and more positive appraisals of the changes to the teams' work with families in those cases where participants had experienced partial or total positive changes as a result of the APF. This approach offers insights into processes of individual change that have practical implications for the successful implementation of parenting programs in child maltreatment prevention services. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Impact of the Hydrocodone Schedule Change on Opioid Prescription Patterns in South Dakota.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuschel, Lauren M; Mort, Jane M

    2017-10-01

    Prescription opioid use is becoming increasingly common; consequently, opioid overdose deaths are increasing at an alarming rate. Hydrocodone, one of the most commonly abused opioids, was changed from a schedule III controlled substance to the more stringent schedule II to decrease abuse and diversion, effective Oct. 6, 2014. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the hydrocodone schedule change on opioid prescribing in South Dakota. Opioid prescription patterns were examined in the following six-month phases: the baseline phase before the change, the transition phase when existing hydrocodone prescriptions could still be refilled, and the final phase. The South Dakota Board of Pharmacy Prescription Drug Monitoring Program provided aggregate monthly data for South Dakota opioid prescriptions (i.e., total number of prescriptions and days supplied), including urban and rural stratification. T-tests were performed on the monthly values for each phase to determine the significance of differences in prescription features between phases. The number of hydrocodone prescriptions significantly decreased 14 percent from baseline to final phase, while the days supplied per prescription significantly increased 7.4 percent. These changes were greater in rural areas than in urban areas. Conversely, the number of other opioid prescriptions significantly increased by 6.5 percent over this timeframe. The number of hydrocodone prescriptions decreased, while the days supplied per prescription increased. These changes were greater in rural areas than in urban areas. In addition, the number of other opioid prescriptions increased. These trends may reflect some unintended effects of the schedule change.

  10. Risk attitudes in a changing environment: An evolutionary model of the fourfold pattern of risk preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallpress, Dave E W; Fawcett, Tim W; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

    2015-04-01

    A striking feature of human decision making is the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, involving risk-averse behavior in situations of unlikely losses and likely gains, but risk-seeking behavior in response to likely losses and unlikely gains. Current theories to explain this pattern assume particular psychological processes to reproduce empirical observations, but do not address whether it is adaptive for the decision maker to respond to risk in this way. Here, drawing on insights from behavioral ecology, we build an evolutionary model of risk-sensitive behavior, to investigate whether particular types of environmental conditions could favor a fourfold pattern of risk attitudes. We consider an individual foraging in a changing environment, where energy is needed to prevent starvation and build up reserves for reproduction. The outcome, in terms of reproductive value (a rigorous measure of evolutionary success), of a one-off choice between a risky and a safe gain, or between a risky and a safe loss, determines the risk-sensitive behavior we should expect to see in this environment. Our results show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes may be adaptive in an environment in which conditions vary stochastically but are autocorrelated in time. In such an environment the current options provide information about the likely environmental conditions in the future, which affect the optimal pattern of risk sensitivity. Our model predicts that risk preferences should be both path dependent and affected by the decision maker's current state. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Study on the change and acculturation of dietary pattern of Southeast Asian workers living in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun Jung; Lee, Kyung-Ran; Lee, Seung-Joo

    2017-10-01

    This study analyzed the dietary pattern of Southeast Asian workers (Vietnamese, Thais, Cambodians and Myanmar) living in South Korea in order to recognize the dietary changes after they moved to South Korea. Questionnaire