WorldWideScience

Sample records for change simulation hydrologique

  1. La variabilité hydrologique actuelle dans le bassin de l'Amazone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available Les phénomènes climatiques de type “ El Niño ”, et son inverse “ La Niña ”, perturbent fortement le climat des régions tropicales du versant Pacifique (Pérou, Équateur, Colombie. Les perturbations du régime des précipitations altèrent à leur tour le régime hydrologique des fleuves de ces régions. Aussi l’analyse des longues séries hydrologiques est un outil pratique pour détecter l’ampleur et l’étendue de l’influence du “ Niño/Niña ” sur une région donnée. Cette analyse des séries chronologiques de débit a été menée sur 17 stations hydrologiques du DNAEE dans le bassin amazonien du Brésil. Les résultats obtenus montrent de bonnes corrélations entre l’indice d’oscillation austral (ENSO et l’indice des débits dans la partie nord-est du bassin (rios Branco et Jari. Ailleurs, des tendances régionales sont observées, mais ne sont pas toujours significatives. Dans le cas de l’Amazone à Óbidos, le “ Niño ” de 1983 a entraîné une chute de 16% du débit moyen annuel, alors que la “ Niña ” de 1989 est responsable d’un excédent de 14% du débit annuel. LA VARIABILIDAD HIDROLÓGICA ACTUAL EN LA CUENCA AMAZÓNICA. Los fenómenos climáticos de tipo “El Niño”, y su inverso “La Niña”, perturban fuertemente el clima de las regiones tropicales de la vertiente Pacífica (Perú, Ecuador, Colombia. Las perturbaciones del régimen de las lluvias alteran el régimen hidrológico de los ríos de la región. Así el análisis de las largas crónicas hidrológicas es una herramienta práctica para detectar la amplitud y la extensión del impacto de El Niño (o de la Niña sobre una cuenca. Este análisis de las crónicas de caudales fue realizada sobre 17 estaciones hidrológicas del DNAEE en la cuenca amazónica del Brasil. Los resultados obtenidos muestran buenas correlaciones entre el índice de oscilación austral (ENSO y el índice de caudales en la parte noreste de la cuenca (río Branco y río Jari

  2. Le risque hydrologique : du concept à sa gestion, Alain GIRET, sous la direction de

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Ballais

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet ouvrage constitue les actes du colloque Les Rencontres de Géo. 13, organisé à l'Université Paris 13, le 28 octobre 2005. La courte introduction d'Alain GIRET (2 p. permet à l'organisateur du colloque de préciser la conception du risque hydrologique de ce colloque "Le cadre conceptuel se réduit aux seuls extrêmes hydrologiques fluviaux : les étiages et les inondations, écartant problèmes de pollution et de qualité des eaux".La section 1 regroupe concept et processus. François CHAGNAUD s'i...

  3. Final report of the project GICC-MedWater (march 2003/february 2006). Impacts of the climatic change on the hydrological cycle of the mediterranean basin; Rapport final du projet GICC-MedWater (mars 2003/fevrier 2006). Impacts du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique du bassin mediterraneen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, L

    2006-03-15

    In the framework of the climatic change, the management of the impacts needs a precise knowledge of the change characteristics at the regional scale. The hydrological cycle is an important component of the mediterranean regional climate. The GICC-MedWater project is placed in the scope of climatic scenari regionalization and studies the characteristics of the climatic warming for the mediterranean basin. The main objective is to propose scenari of the climate evolution, for the mediterranean basin region and the impacts on the general circulation and the biology of Mediterranean Sea. It also includes a validation of the models in order to verify the the quality of the obtained scenari. (A.L.B.)

  4. Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

    2012-04-01

    At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

  5. Les effets écologiques d’un programme de restauration hydrologique d’une rivière artificialisée

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabine Mannes

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Le régime hydrologique naturel de la grande majorité des rivières du globe a été modifié par une régulation artificielle, qui a profondément affecté la morphologie fluviale et la vie aquatique. L’intégration de critères hydrologiques comme le débit et la température dans les programmes de restauration constitue une étape importante pour la gestion de rivière. Cet article synthétise les observations, en terme de qualité physicochimique de l’eau et de biocénose aquatique, des effets d’une programmation de crues sur le long terme (15 crues artificielles en huit ans sur la rivière Spöl, dans le Parc National Suisse. Du fait des lâchers d’eau hypolimnétiques (issues des eaux profondes, ces crues ont peu d’impact sur les paramètres physiques et chimiques. La biomasse du périphyton a été réduite par les premières crues, puis s’est maintenue à des niveaux faibles pendant toute la période étudiée. La richesse spécifique, la biomasse et la densité de macro-invertébrés ont aussi été significativement réduites, et l’association de macroinvertébrés a évolué vers des taxons plus résistants aux perturbations. La qualité des habitats piscicoles, en particulier pour les zones de frai, a été sensiblement améliorée par les inondations. Une analyse plus approfondie a montré que la réponse de la biocénose à des crues d’ampleur similaire a changé pendant la période d’étude en parallèle avec la modification de la composition des associations biotiques.The natural flow regime of many rivers on the globe has been altered by regulation, strongly influencing river morphology and aquatic biota. The incorporation of regimebased criteria such as flow and temperature regimes in restoration plans is an important step in river management. This paper summarizes the effects of a long-term flood program (15 floods over 8 years on the river Spöl, Swiss National Park, on water physico-chemistry and river

  6. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, A.; Washington, W.M.; Meehl, G.A.; Bettge, T.W.; Strand, W.G.

    2004-01-01

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  7. Choix d'un modèle pluie-ruissellement pour des conditions hydrologiques complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gárfias, Jaime; Verrette, Jean-Louis; Antigüedad, Iñaki; André, Cécile

    1996-03-01

    The main purpose of this study is to compare the application possibilities of different rainfall-runoff models and how to choose that which best corresponds to certain hydrological conditions. The system chosen for analysis lies in the Bolivian highlands. The region is drained by the River Desaguadero, which flows out of Lake Titicaca (altitude 3810 m), and into Lake Poopo (altitude 3686 m). Following an analysis of hydrological models in general, the conclusions are applied to the particular characteristics of the Bolivian highlands. A simulation procedure, based on the decomposition of the basin into elements, was used. Detailed provisions to represent the losses along one of the channel reaches led to significant improvements in the simulation. It is concluded that channel losses are due to the characteristic geographic position and the specific characteristics of the system. The results of the study suggest that modelling of the surface water runoff may be applied with success in the Bolivian highlands but that the present, commonly used, methods are inadequate and adjustments are necessary.

  8. Étude du passage de la modélisation hydrologique de AIGA au pas de temps infra-horaire

    OpenAIRE

    Organde, D.; Maire, A.; Javelle, P.

    2015-01-01

    / Dans le cadre de son action pour la prévision des inondations, le Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations (SCHAPI) prévoit la mise en service (courant 2016) d'un système d'avertissement des crues soudaines basé sur la méthode AIGA améliorée ces dernières années pour être étendue au territoire national. Des pistes d'amélioration du système sont étudiées pour une application ultérieure. Une de ces améliorations consiste à passer le modèle hydrologique du ...

  9. Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

    2018-02-01

    We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

  10. Simulation of Demographic Change in Palestinian Territories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumour, M. A.; El-Astal, A. H.; Shabat, M. M.; Radwan, M. A.

    Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, leading to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian Territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this paper we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into the future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and female employment.

  11. Simulation studies of GST phase change alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martyna, Glenn

    2008-03-01

    In order to help drive post-Moore's Law technology development, switching processes involving novel materials, in particular, GeSbTe (GST) alloys are being investigated for use in memory and eFuse applications. An anneal/quench thermal process crystallizes/amorphosizes a GST alloy which then has a low/high resistance and thereby forms a readable/writeable bit; for example, a ``one'' might be the low resistance, conducting crystalline state and a ``zero'' might be the high resistance, glassy state. There are many open questions about the precise nature of the structural transitions and the coupling to electronic structure changes. Computational and experimental studies of the effect of pressure on the GST materials were initiated in order to probe the physics behind the thermal switching process. A new pathway to reversible phase change involving pressure-induced structural metal insulator transitions was discovered. In a binary GS system, a room-temperature, direct, pressure-induced transformation from the high resistance amorphous phase to the low resistance crystalline phase was observed experimentally while the reverse process under tensile load was demonstrated via ab initio MD simulations performed on IBM's Blue Gene/L enabled by massively parallel software. Pressure induced transformations of the ternary material GST-225 (Ge2Sb2Te5) were, also, examined In the talk, the behavior of the two systems will be compared and insight into the nature of the phase change given.

  12. Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, J.M. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Maddison, D.J. [University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark). Economics Institute; Centre for Cultural Economics and Management, London (United Kingdom); Tol, R.S.J. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh (United States). Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

    2005-10-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gasp. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes un population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. (author)

  13. Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, J.M.; Maddison, D.J.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for

  14. simulating rice yields under climate change scenarios using

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    The effects of climate change on rice production and yield cannot be overlooked in finding measures to increase production and yield. The CERES-Rice (Ver. 4.0) model was calibrated and evaluated for use in simulating rice yields under different climate change scenarios in Ghana using data from the Anum Valley ...

  15. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  16. Performance simulation of the X-ray spectrometer in Chang'E-1 satellite payload

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao Xuelei; Wang Huanyu; Zhang Chengmo; Chen Yong; Yang Jiawei; Wang JInzhou; Liang Xiaohua; Gao Min; Zhang Jiayu; Ma Guofeng

    2007-01-01

    We discuss the performance simulation of the X-ray Spectrometer in Chang'E-1 satellite based on Geant4 system. It is divided in three parts, the efficiency simulation, the energy spectrum response and direction response. It provides the guidance on making the spectrometer. (authors)

  17. OSL sensitivity changes during single aliquot procedures: Computer simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    1997-01-01

    We present computer simulations of sensitivity changes obtained during single aliquot, regeneration procedures. The simulations indicate that the sensitivity changes are the combined result of shallow trap and deep trap effects. Four separate processes have been identified. Although procedures can...... be suggested to eliminate the shallow trap effects, it appears that the deep trap effects cannot be removed. The character of the sensitivity changes which result from these effects is seen to be dependent upon several external parameters, including the extent of bleaching of the OSL signal, the laboratory...

  18. Time simulation of flutter with large stiffness changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpel, Mordechay; Wieseman, Carol D.

    1992-01-01

    Time simulation of flutter, involving large local structural changes, is formulated with a state-space model that is based on a relatively small number of generalized coordinates. Free-free vibration modes are first calculated for a nominal finite-element model with relatively large fictitious masses located at the area of structural changes. A low-frequency subset of these modes is then transformed into a set of structural modal coordinates with which the entire simulation is performed. These generalized coordinates and the associated oscillatory aerodynamic force coefficient matrices are used to construct an efficient time-domain, state-space model for a basic aeroelastic case. The time simulation can then be performed by simply changing the mass, stiffness, and damping coupling terms when structural changes occur. It is shown that the size of the aeroelastic model required for time simulation with large structural changes at a few apriori known locations is similar to that required for direct analysis of a single structural case. The method is applied to the simulation of an aeroelastic wind-tunnel model. The diverging oscillations are followed by the activation of a tip-ballast decoupling mechanism that stabilizes the system but may cause significant transient overshoots.

  19. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  20. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi...

  1. Simulation Modelling and Strategic Change: Creating the Sustainable Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Dawson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights the benefits of using discrete event simulation models for developing change management frameworks which facilitate productivity and environmental improvements in order to create a sustainable enterprise. There is an increasing need for organisations to be more socially and environmentally responsible, however these objectives cannot be realised in isolation of the strategic, operations and business objectives of the enterprise. Discrete Event Simulation models facilitate a multidimensional approach to enterprise modelling which can integrate operations and strategic considerations with environmental and social issues. Moreover these models can provide a dynamic roadmap for implementing a change strategy for realising the optimal conditions for operational and environmental performance. It is important to note that the nature of change is itself dynamic and that simulation models are capable of characterising the dynamics of the change process. The paper argues that incorporating social and environmental challenges into a strategic business model for an enterprise can result in improved profits and long term viability and that a multidimensional simulation approach can support decision making throughout the change process to more effectively achieve these goals.

  2. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  3. Evaluation of uncertainties in regional climate change simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pan, Z.; Christensen, J. H.; Arritt, R. W.

    2001-01-01

    , an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (GCM) current climate, and a future scenario of transient climate change. Common precipitation climatology features simulated by both models included realistic orographic precipitation, east-west transcontinental gradients, and reasonable annual cycles over...... to different subgrid scale processes in individual models. The ratio of climate change to biases, which we use as one measure of confidence in projected climate changes, is substantially larger than 1 in several seasons and regions while the ratios are always less than 1 in summer. The largest ratios among all...... regions are in California. Spatial correlation coefficients of precipitation were computed between simulation pairs in the 2x3 set. The climate change correlation is highest and the RCM performance correlation is lowest while boundary forcing and intermodel correlations are intermediate. The high spatial...

  4. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oort, Van Pepijn A.J.; Zwart, Sander J.

    2018-01-01

    This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature

  5. Perspective: Simulation and transformational change: the paradox of expertise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneebone, Roger

    2009-07-01

    Simulation is widely seen as a space where procedural skills can be practiced in safety, free from the pressures and complexities of clinical care. Central to this approach is the notion of simplification, a stripping down of skills into their component parts. Yet the definition of simplicity is contestable, often determined by experts without reference to those they teach.The author uses the ha-ha, a hidden ditch around a large country house used by 18th-century English landscape gardeners to create an illusion that the house is surrounded by untamed nature, as a metaphor for the differing perspectives of expert and novice. The author proposes that this difference of perspective lies at the heart of many current problems with simulation and simulators.This article challenges the philosophy of simplification, arguing that procedural skills should not be divorced from their clinical context and that oversimplification of a complex process can interfere with deep understanding. The author draws on Meyer and Land's notions of threshold concepts and troublesome knowledge and on his own experience with patient-focused simulation to propose an alternative view of simulation, framing it as a safe space which can reflect the uncertainties of clinical practice and recreate the conditions of real-world learning. By reintroducing complexity and human unpredictability, simulation can provide a safe environment for assisting the transformational change that is essential to becoming a competent clinician.

  6. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to understand how changes in climate may affect the structure of landscapes that are subject to periodic disturbances. A general model useful for examining the linkage between climatic change and landscape change has been developed. The model makes use of synoptic climatic data, a geographical information system (GRASS), field data on the location of disturbance patches, simulation code written in the SIMSCRIPT language, and a set of landscape structure analysis programs written specifically for this research project. A simplified version of the model, lacking the climatic driver, has been used to analyze how changes in disturbance regimes (in this case settlement and fire suppression) affect landscape change. Landscape change lagged in its response to changes in the disturbance regime, but the lags differed depending upon the character of the change and the particular measure considered. The model will now be modified for use in a specific setting to analyze the effects of changes in climate on the structure of flood-disturbed patches along the Animas River, Colorado

  7. The Crucible simulation: Behavioral simulation improves clinical leadership skills and understanding of complex health policy change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Daniel; Vlaev, Ivo; McMahon, Laurie; Harvey, Sarah; Mitchell, Andy; Borovoi, Leah; Darzi, Ara

    2017-05-11

    The Health and Social Care Act 2012 represents the most complex National Health Service reforms in history. High-quality clinical leadership is important for successful implementation of health service reform. However, little is known about the effectiveness of current leadership training. This study describes the use of a behavioral simulation to improve the knowledge and leadership of a cohort of medical doctors expected to take leadership roles in the National Health Service. A day-long behavioral simulation (The Crucible) was developed and run based on a fictitious but realistic health economy. Participants completed pre- and postsimulation questionnaires generating qualitative and quantitative data. Leadership skills, knowledge, and behavior change processes described by the "theory of planned behavior" were self-assessed pre- and postsimulation. Sixty-nine medical doctors attended. Participants deemed the simulation immersive and relevant. Significant improvements were shown in perceived knowledge, capability, attitudes, subjective norms, intentions, and leadership competency following the program. Nearly one third of participants reported that they had implemented knowledge and skills from the simulation into practice within 4 weeks. This study systematically demonstrates the effectiveness of behavioral simulation for clinical management training and understanding of health policy reform. Potential future uses and strategies for analysis are discussed. High-quality care requires understanding of health systems and strong leadership. Policymakers should consider the use of behavioral simulation to improve understanding of health service reform and development of leadership skills in clinicians, who readily adopt skills from simulation into everyday practice.

  8. An SPICE model for phase-change memory simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xi; Song Zhitang; Cai Daolin; Chen Xiaogang; Chen Houpeng

    2011-01-01

    Along with a series of research works on the physical prototype and properties of the memory cell, an SPICE model for phase-change memory (PCM) simulations based on Verilog-A language is presented. By handling it with the heat distribution algorithm, threshold switching theory and the crystallization kinetic model, the proposed SPICE model can effectively reproduce the physical behaviors of the phase-change memory cell. In particular, it can emulate the cell's temperature curve and crystallinity profile during the programming process, which can enable us to clearly understand the PCM's working principle and program process. (semiconductor devices)

  9. An SPICE model for phase-change memory simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Xi; Song Zhitang; Cai Daolin; Chen Xiaogang; Chen Houpeng, E-mail: ituluck@mail.sim.ac.cn [State Key Laboratory of Functional Materials for Informatics, Laboratory of Nanotechnology, Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200050 (China)

    2011-09-15

    Along with a series of research works on the physical prototype and properties of the memory cell, an SPICE model for phase-change memory (PCM) simulations based on Verilog-A language is presented. By handling it with the heat distribution algorithm, threshold switching theory and the crystallization kinetic model, the proposed SPICE model can effectively reproduce the physical behaviors of the phase-change memory cell. In particular, it can emulate the cell's temperature curve and crystallinity profile during the programming process, which can enable us to clearly understand the PCM's working principle and program process. (semiconductor devices)

  10. Changes of brain response induced by simulated weightlessness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jinhe; Yan, Gongdong; Guan, Zhiqiang

    The characteristics change of brain response was studied during 15° head-down tilt (HDT) comparing with 45° head-up tilt (HUT). The brain responses evaluated included the EEG power spectra change at rest and during mental arithmetic, and the event-related potentials (ERPs) of somatosensory, selective attention and mental arithmetic activities. The prominent feature of brain response change during HDT revealed that the brain function was inhibited to some extent. Such inhibition included that the significant increment of "40Hz" activity during HUT arithmetic almost disappeared during HDT arithmetic, and that the positive-potential effect induced by HDT presented in all kinds of ERPs measured, but the slow negative wave reflecting mental arithmetic and memory process was elongated. These data suggest that the brain function be affected profoundly by the simulated weightlessness, therefore, the brain function change during space flight should be studied systematically.

  11. A synthesis of regional climate change simulations - A Scandinavian perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, J. H.; Räinsänen, J.; Iversen, T.

    2001-01-01

    Four downscaling experiments of regional climate change for the Nordic countries have been conducted with three different regional climate models (RCMs). A short synthesis of the outcome of the suite of experiments is presented as an ensemble, reflecting the different driving atmosphere-ocean...... general circulation model (AOGCM) conditions, RCM model resolution and domain size, and choice of emission scenarios. This allows the sources of uncertainties in the projections to be assessed. At the same time analysis of the climate change signal for temperature and precipitation over the period 1990......-2050 reveals strong similarities. In particular, all experiments in the suite simulate changes in the precipitation distribution towards a higher frequency of heavy precipitation....

  12. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  13. Modeling and Simulating Asymmetrical Conductance Changes in Gramicidin Pores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Shixin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gramicidin A is a small and well characterized peptide that forms an ion channel in lipid membranes. An important feature of gramicidin A (gA pore is that its conductance is affected by the electric charges near the its entrance. This property has led to the application of gramicidin A as a biochemical sensor for monitoring and quantifying a number of chemical and enzymatic reactions. Here, a mathematical model of conductance changes of gramicidin A pores in response to the presence of electrical charges near its entrance, either on membrane surface or attached to gramicidin A itself, is presented. In this numerical simulation, a two dimensional computational domain is set to mimic the structure of a gramicidin A channel in the bilayer surrounded by electrolyte. The transport of ions through the channel is modeled by the Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP equations that are solved by Finite Element Method (FEM. Preliminary numerical simulations of this mathematical model are in qualitative agreement with the experimental results in the literature. In addition to the model and simulations, we also present the analysis of the stability of the solution to the boundary conditions and the convergence of FEM method for the two dimensional PNP equations in our model.

  14. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  15. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oort, Pepijn A J; Zwart, Sander J

    2018-03-01

    This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Simulation of Land-Cover Change in Taipei Metropolitan Area under Climate Change Impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Kuo-Ching; Huang, Thomas C C

    2014-01-01

    Climate change causes environment change and shows up on land covers. Through observing the change of land use, researchers can find out the trend and potential mechanism of the land cover change. Effective adaptation policies can affect pattern of land cover change and may decrease the risks of climate change impacts. By simulating land use dynamics with scenario settings, this paper attempts to explore the relationship between climate change and land-cover change through efficient adaptation polices. It involves spatial statistical model in estimating possibility of land-cover change, cellular automata model in modeling land-cover dynamics, and scenario analysis in response to adaptation polices. The results show that, without any control, the critical eco-areas, such as estuarine areas, will be destroyed and people may move to the vulnerable and important economic development areas. In the other hand, under the limited development condition for adaptation, people migration to peri-urban and critical eco-areas may be deterred

  17. Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark

    2006-01-01

    Conventional top-down and bottom-up energy-economy models have limitations that affect their usefulness to policy-makers. Efforts to develop hybrid models, that incorporate valuable aspects of these two frameworks, may be more useful by representing technologies in the energy-economy explicitly while also representing more realistically the way in which businesses and consumers choose between those technologies. This representation allows for the realistic simulation of a wide range of technology-specific regulations and fiscal incentives alongside economy-wide fiscal incentives and disincentives. These policies can be assessed based on the costs required to reach a goal in the medium term, as well as on the degree to which they induce technological change that affects costs over long time periods

  18. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, Lennart

    1999-01-01

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  19. Direct numerical simulation of incompressible multiphase flow with phase change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moon Soo; Riaz, Amir; Aute, Vikrant

    2017-09-01

    Simulation of multiphase flow with phase change is challenging because of the potential for unphysical pressure oscillations, spurious velocity fields and mass flux errors across the interface. The resulting numerical errors may become critical when large density contrasts are present. To address these issues, we present a new approach for multiphase flow with phase change that features, (i) a smooth distribution of sharp velocity jumps and mass flux within a narrow region surrounding the interface, (ii) improved mass flux projection from the implicit interface onto the uniform Cartesian grid and (iii) post-advection velocity correction step to ensure accurate velocity divergence in interfacial cells. These new features are implemented in combination with a sharp treatment of the jumps in pressure and temperature gradient. A series of 1-D, 2-D, axisymmetric and 3-D problems are solved to verify the improvements afforded by the new approach. Axisymmetric film boiling results are also presented, which show good qualitative agreement with heat transfer correlations as well as experimental observations of bubble shapes.

  20. Methodological advances: using greenhouses to simulate climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, F; Pascual, I; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Aguirreolea, J; Irigoyen, J J; Goicoechea, N; Antolín, M C; Oyarzun, M; Urdiain, A

    2014-09-01

    Human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. Related to this global warming, periods of low water availability are also expected to increase. Thus, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are three of the main factors related to climate change that potentially may influence crops and ecosystems. In this report, we describe the use of growth chamber - greenhouses (GCG) and temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG) to simulate climate change scenarios and to investigate possible plant responses. In the GCG, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are set to act simultaneously, enabling comparison of a current situation with a future one. Other characteristics of the GCG are a relative large space of work, fine control of the relative humidity, plant fertirrigation and the possibility of light supplementation, within the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) region and/or with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) light. In the TGG, the three above-mentioned factors can act independently or in interaction, enabling more mechanistic studies aimed to elucidate the limiting factor(s) responsible for a given plant response. Examples of experiments, including some aimed to study photosynthetic acclimation, a phenomenon that leads to decreased photosynthetic capacity under long-term exposures to elevated CO2, using GCG and TGG are reported. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Seasonal changes in the atmospheric heat balance simulated by the GISS general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, P. H.; Chow, S.; Helfand, H. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Somerville, R. C. J.

    1975-01-01

    Tests of the ability of numerical general circulation models to simulate the atmosphere have focussed so far on simulations of the January climatology. These models generally present boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature, but this does not prevent testing their ability to simulate seasonal changes in atmospheric processes that accompany presented seasonal changes in boundary conditions. Experiments to simulate changes in the zonally averaged heat balance are discussed since many simplified models of climatic processes are based solely on this balance.

  2. Simulation of the Chang'E-5 mission contribution in lunar long wavelength gravity field improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Jianguo; Yang, Xuan; Ping, Jinsong; Ye, Mao; Liu, Shanhong; Jin, Weitong; Li, Fei; Barriot, Jean-Pierre

    2018-06-01

    The precision of lunar gravity field estimation has improved by means of three to five orders of magnitude since the successful GRAIL lunar mission. There are still discrepancies however, in the low degree coefficients and long wavelength components of the solutions developed by two space research centers (JPL and GSFC). These discrepancies hint at the possibilities for improving the accuracy in the long wavelength part of the lunar gravity field. In the near future, China will launch the Chang'E-5 lunar mission. In this sample-return mission, there will be a chance to do KBRR measurements between an ascending module and an orbiting module. These two modules will fly around lunar at an inclination of ˜49 degrees, with an orbital height of 100 km and an inter-satellite distance of 200 km. In our research, we simulated the contribution of the KBRR tracking mode for different GRAIL orbital geometries. This analysis indicated possible deficiencies in the low degree coefficient solutions for the polar satellite-to-satellite tracking mode at various orbital heights. We also investigated the potential contributions of the KBRR to the Chang'E-5 mission goal of lunar gravity field recovery, especially in the long wavelength component. Potential improvements were assessed using various power spectrums of the lunar gravity field models. In addition, we also investigated possible improvements in solving lunar tidal Love number K2. These results may assist the implementation of the Chang'E-5 mission.

  3. Simulating changes to emergency care resources to compare system effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branas, Charles C; Wolff, Catherine S; Williams, Justin; Margolis, Gregg; Carr, Brendan G

    2013-08-01

    To apply systems optimization methods to simulate and compare the most effective locations for emergency care resources as measured by access to care. This study was an optimization analysis of the locations of trauma centers (TCs), helicopter depots (HDs), and severely injured patients in need of time-critical care in select US states. Access was defined as the percentage of injured patients who could reach a level I/II TC within 45 or 60 minutes. Optimal locations were determined by a search algorithm that considered all candidate sites within a set of existing hospitals and airports in finding the best solutions that maximized access. Across a dozen states, existing access to TCs within 60 minutes ranged from 31.1% to 95.6%, with a mean of 71.5%. Access increased from 0.8% to 35.0% after optimal addition of one or two TCs. Access increased from 1.0% to 15.3% after optimal addition of one or two HDs. Relocation of TCs and HDs (optimal removal followed by optimal addition) produced similar results. Optimal changes to TCs produced greater increases in access to care than optimal changes to HDs although these results varied across states. Systems optimization methods can be used to compare the impacts of different resource configurations and their possible effects on access to care. These methods to determine optimal resource allocation can be applied to many domains, including comparative effectiveness and patient-centered outcomes research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Gradient augmented level set method for phase change simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anumolu, Lakshman; Trujillo, Mario F.

    2018-01-01

    A numerical method for the simulation of two-phase flow with phase change based on the Gradient-Augmented-Level-set (GALS) strategy is presented. Sharp capturing of the vaporization process is enabled by: i) identification of the vapor-liquid interface, Γ (t), at the subgrid level, ii) discontinuous treatment of thermal physical properties (except for μ), and iii) enforcement of mass, momentum, and energy jump conditions, where the gradients of the dependent variables are obtained at Γ (t) and are consistent with their analytical expression, i.e. no local averaging is applied. Treatment of the jump in velocity and pressure at Γ (t) is achieved using the Ghost Fluid Method. The solution of the energy equation employs the sub-grid knowledge of Γ (t) to discretize the temperature Laplacian using second-order one-sided differences, i.e. the numerical stencil completely resides within each respective phase. To carefully evaluate the benefits or disadvantages of the GALS approach, the standard level set method is implemented and compared against the GALS predictions. The results show the expected trend that interface identification and transport are predicted noticeably better with GALS over the standard level set. This benefit carries over to the prediction of the Laplacian and temperature gradients in the neighborhood of the interface, which are directly linked to the calculation of the vaporization rate. However, when combining the calculation of interface transport and reinitialization with two-phase momentum and energy, the benefits of GALS are to some extent neutralized, and the causes for this behavior are identified and analyzed. Overall the additional computational costs associated with GALS are almost the same as those using the standard level set technique.

  5. CFD-simulation of uranium hexafluoride during phase change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakarinen, Tomi

    2014-01-01

    A model for simulating the behavior of uranium hexafluoride during melting and solidification cycles has been developed. First goal was to create a user-defined material of uranium hexafluoride for commercial computational fluid dynamics software (FLUENT). The results of the thermo physical properties are presented in this paper. The material properties were used to create a model that is able to simulate melting, solidification, evaporation and condensation. The model was used to obtain knowledge of UF 6 s behaviour when melting and solidifying the matter in a two-dimensional cylinder. The results were compared to the results of an analytical solution. The calculation results are consistent with the simulation. (authors)

  6. Simulation for temperature changing investigation at RSG-GAS cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utaja

    2002-01-01

    The RSG-GAS cooling system considers of primary and secondary system, is used for heat rejection from reactor core to the atmosphere. For temperature changing investigation cause by atmospherics condition changing or coolant flow rate changing, is more safe done by simulation. This paper describes the simulation for determine the RSG-GAS coolant temperature changing base on heat exchange and cooling tower characteristic. The simulation is done by computer programme running under WINDOWS 95 or higher. The temperature changing is based on heat transfer process on heat exchanger and cooling tower. The simulation will show the water tank temperature changing caused by the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere or by coolant flow rate changing. For example the humidity changing from 60% to 80% atmospherics temperature 30 oC and 32400 k Watt power will change the tank temperature from 37,97 oC to 40,03 oC

  7. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  8. Simulation of production setup changes in an SME

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvolby, Hans-Henrik; Svensson, Carsten; Steger-Jensen, Kenn

    2012-01-01

    This case study demonstrates how a simple simulation model can help Small and Medium Size manufactures to identify current and future possible problem areas and assist management in taking the best possible decisions regarding future production strategies...

  9. Simulation of Production Setup Changes in an SME

    KAUST Repository

    Hvolby, Hans-Henrik

    2012-10-04

    This case study demonstrates how a simple simulation model can help Small and Medium Size manufactures to identify current and future possible problem areas and assist management in taking the best possible decisions regarding future production strategies

  10. Simulation of Production Setup Changes in an SME

    KAUST Repository

    Hvolby, Hans-Henrik; Svensson, Carsten; Steger-Jensen, Kenn

    2012-01-01

    This case study demonstrates how a simple simulation model can help Small and Medium Size manufactures to identify current and future possible problem areas and assist management in taking the best possible decisions regarding future production

  11. Simulating climate change impact on soil erosion using RUSLE model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Climate change, particularly due to the changed precipitation trend, can have a severe impact on soil erosion. The effect is more pronounced on the higher slopes of the Himalayan region. The goal of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change on soil erosion in a watershed of the Himalayan region using ...

  12. Computer simulations and the changing face of scientific experimentation

    CERN Document Server

    Duran, Juan M

    2013-01-01

    Computer simulations have become a central tool for scientific practice. Their use has replaced, in many cases, standard experimental procedures. This goes without mentioning cases where the target system is empirical but there are no techniques for direct manipulation of the system, such as astronomical observation. To these cases, computer simulations have proved to be of central importance. The question about their use and implementation, therefore, is not only a technical one but represents a challenge for the humanities as well. In this volume, scientists, historians, and philosophers joi

  13. Simulation of microbubble response to ambient pressure changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Scheldrup; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2008-01-01

    The theory on microbubbles clearly indicates a relation between the ambient pressure and the acoustic behavior of the bubble. The purpose of this study was to optimize the sensitivity of ambient pressure measurements, using the subharmonic component, through microbubble response simulations....... The behaviour of two different contrast agents was investigated as a function of driving pulse and ambient overpressure, pov. Simulations of Levovist using a rectangular driving pulse show an almost linear reduction in the subharmonic component as pov is increased. For a 20 cycles driving pulse, a reduction...... is not completely linear as a function of the ambient pressure....

  14. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  15. Improved simulation of peak flows under climate change: post-processing or composite opjective calibration?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Xujie; Booij, Martijn J.; Xu, YuePing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have large impacts on peak flows. However, there may be bias in the simulation of peak flows by hydrological models. This study aims to improve the simulation of peak flows under climate change in Lanjiang catchment, east China, by comparing two approaches:

  16. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

  17. modelisation du comportement hydrologique du bassin versant

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    LGE

    gestion optimale de l‟eau sur un bassin versant. ..... paramètres sont vérifiés sur la (s) période (s) de contrôle afin de s‟assurer ... critère est très utilisé en hydrologie pour évaluer les performances des modèles pluie-débit. ..... Dans un second temps, il peut d‟agir de la procédure de mesure des débits qui est basée sur la.

  18. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  19. Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.

    2006-01-01

    In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

  20. Simulation of phase change drywalls in a passive solar building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darkwa, K.; O' Callaghan, P.W. [School of the Built Environment, The Applied Energy and Environmental Engineering Group, Nottingham Trent University, Burton Street, Nottingham NG1 4BU (United Kingdom)

    2006-06-15

    Integration of phase change materials (PCMs) into building fabrics is considered to be one of the potential and effective ways of minimizing energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in the building sector. In order to assess the thermal effectiveness of this concept, composite PCM drywall samples (i.e. randomly-mixed and laminated PCM drywalls) have been evaluated in a model passive solar building. For a broader assessment, effects of three phase change zones (narrow, intermediate and wide) of the PCM sample were considered. The results showed that the laminated PCM sample with a narrow phase change zone was capable of increasing the minimum room temperature by about 17% more than the randomly-mixed type. Even though there was some display of non-isothermal phase change process, the laminated system proved to be thermally more effective in terms of evolution and utilization of latent heat. Further heat transfer enhancement process is however required towards the development of the laminated system. [Author].

  1. Losing the Lake: Simulations to Promote Gains in Student Knowledge and Interest about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nussbaum, E. Michael; Owens, Marissa C.; Sinatra, Gale M.; Rehmat, Abeera P.; Cordova, Jacqueline R.; Ahmad, Sajjad; Harris, Fred C., Jr.; Dascalu, Sergiu M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change literacy plays a key role in promoting sound political decisions and promoting sustainable consumption patterns. Based on evidence suggesting that student understanding and interest in climate change is best accomplished through studying local effects, we developed a simulation/game exploring the impact of climate change on the…

  2. Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

  3. A Data Stream Model For Runoff Simulation In A Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Q.; Shao, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, G.

    2017-12-01

    Runoff simulation is of great significance for water engineering design, water disaster control, water resources planning and management in a catchment or region. A large number of methods including concept-based process-driven models and statistic-based data-driven models, have been proposed and widely used in worldwide during past decades. Most existing models assume that the relationship among runoff and its impacting factors is stationary. However, in the changing environment (e.g., climate change, human disturbance), their relationship usually evolves over time. In this study, we propose a data stream model for runoff simulation in a changing environment. Specifically, the proposed model works in three steps: learning a rule set, expansion of a rule, and simulation. The first step is to initialize a rule set. When a new observation arrives, the model will check which rule covers it and then use the rule for simulation. Meanwhile, Page-Hinckley (PH) change detection test is used to monitor the online simulation error of each rule. If a change is detected, the corresponding rule is removed from the rule set. In the second step, for each rule, if it covers more than a given number of instance, the rule is expected to expand. In the third step, a simulation model of each leaf node is learnt with a perceptron without activation function, and is updated with adding a newly incoming observation. Taking Fuxi River catchment as a case study, we applied the model to simulate the monthly runoff in the catchment. Results show that abrupt change is detected in the year of 1997 by using the Page-Hinckley change detection test method, which is consistent with the historic record of flooding. In addition, the model achieves good simulation results with the RMSE of 13.326, and outperforms many established methods. The findings demonstrated that the proposed data stream model provides a promising way to simulate runoff in a changing environment.

  4. interThermalPhaseChangeFoam—A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Nabil

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The volume-of-fluid (VOF approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam, which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A. By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

  5. interThermalPhaseChangeFoam-A framework for two-phase flow simulations with thermally driven phase change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabil, Mahdi; Rattner, Alexander S.

    The volume-of-fluid (VOF) approach is a mature technique for simulating two-phase flows. However, VOF simulation of phase-change heat transfer is still in its infancy. Multiple closure formulations have been proposed in the literature, each suited to different applications. While these have enabled significant research advances, few implementations are publicly available, actively maintained, or inter-operable. Here, a VOF solver is presented (interThermalPhaseChangeFoam), which incorporates an extensible framework for phase-change heat transfer modeling, enabling simulation of diverse phenomena in a single environment. The solver employs object oriented OpenFOAM library features, including Run-Time-Type-Identification to enable rapid implementation and run-time selection of phase change and surface tension force models. The solver is packaged with multiple phase change and surface tension closure models, adapted and refined from earlier studies. This code has previously been applied to study wavy film condensation, Taylor flow evaporation, nucleate boiling, and dropwise condensation. Tutorial cases are provided for simulation of horizontal film condensation, smooth and wavy falling film condensation, nucleate boiling, and bubble condensation. Validation and grid sensitivity studies, interfacial transport models, effects of spurious currents from surface tension models, effects of artificial heat transfer due to numerical factors, and parallel scaling performance are described in detail in the Supplemental Material (see Appendix A). By incorporating the framework and demonstration cases into a single environment, users can rapidly apply the solver to study phase-change processes of interest.

  6. The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.

    1991-01-01

    The use of climate models is described, using examples related to: the greenhouse effect, the principal absorbers, past, present and future, climate feedbacks in CO2 experiments, equilibrium climate change due to increased CO2, modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases, uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gas, simulations for 9000 years before present

  7. Experimental simulation techniques for the evaluation of structural changes in metals and alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucki, Georgi

    1992-01-01

    In this work, high-doses irradiation in nuclear reactor were simulated using a cyclotron in order to study mechanical, electric, magnetic and structural changes in materials. Results of such simulations for portland cement, binary alloys and stainless steels are presented and discussed. 15 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab

  8. Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2010-01-01

    To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

  9. The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.E. Van Beusekom; L.E. Hay; R.J. Viger; W.A. Gould; J.A. Collazo; A. Henareh Khalyani

    2014-01-01

    This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from...

  10. Simulation of Landcover Change Influences for Water Availability Using a Regional Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edvin Aldrian

    2007-07-01

    increase during wet season up to 17% and decrease up to 10% during the dry season. This study may suitable for the climate change impact study and to simulate the land degradation due to ever increasing deforestation and land clearing.

  11. Impact de la résolution des données d'occupation du sol sur la modélisation hydrologique d'un bassin versant périurbain: Application au bassin versant de la Chézine

    OpenAIRE

    POIRIER, Arnaud

    2012-01-01

    Les bassins versant périurbains présentent deux types d'occupation du sol, urbain et rural. Cette hétérogénéité d'occupation entraine la concomitance de deux comportements hydrologiques différents. Ce type de bassin est encore peu étudié de nos jours. Le modèle ISBA-TOPMODEL a été adapté aux bassins périurbains et appliqué au bassin de la Chézine (Nantes). Le but de ce travail a été d'étudier la sensibilité de ce modèle à la donnée la d'occupation du sol. Pour réaliser cette étude nous ...

  12. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  13. The magnetic shield design and simulation of an X-ray spectrometer for Chang'E mission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jiayu; Wang Huanyu; Zhang Chengmo; Yang Jiawei; Liang Xiaohua; Wang Jinzhou; Cao Xuelei; Gao Min; Cui Xingzhu; Peng Wenxi

    2008-01-01

    Basic design methods about the magnetic shield of an X-ray spectrometer for Chang'E Mission were introduced in this paper. The real magnetic field distribution was obtained through the measure experiment, and according to the measure results, the simulation to evaluate the magnetic shield effect was carded on. The results showed that the collimator can play a good role in magnetic shield to the electron. (authors)

  14. The effects of changing land cover on streamflow simulation in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Gould, William A.; Collazo, Jaime; Henareh Khalyani, Azad

    2014-01-01

    This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference in total streamflow, but streamflow simulations using dynamic land cover parameters for a highly altered subwatershed clearly demonstrate the effects of changing land cover on simulated streamflow. Incorporating dynamic parameterization in these highly altered watersheds can reduce the predictive uncertainty in simulations of streamflow using PRMS. Hydrologic models that do not consider the projected changes in land cover may be inadequate for water resource management planning for future conditions.

  15. Simulation of regional temperature change effect of land cover change in agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tingxiang; Zhang, Shuwen; Yu, Lingxue; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping

    2017-05-01

    The Northeast China is one of typical regions experiencing intensive human activities within short time worldwide. Particularly, as the significant changes of agriculture land and forest, typical characteristics of pattern and process of agroforestry ecotone change formed in recent decades. The intensive land use change of agroforestry ecotone has made significant change for regional land cover, which had significant impact on the regional climate system elements and the interactions among them. This paper took agroforestry ecotone of Nenjiang River Basin in China as study region and simulated temperature change based on land cover change from 1950s to 1978 and from 1978 to 2010. The analysis of temperature difference sensitivity to land cover change based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model showed that the land cover change from 1950s to 1978 induced warming effect over all the study area, including the change of grassland to agriculture land, grassland to deciduous broad-leaved forest, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to shrub land. The land cover change from 1978 to 2010 induced cooling effect over all the study area, including the change of deciduous broad-leaved forest to agriculture land, grassland to agriculture land, shrub land to agriculture land, and deciduous broad-leaved forest to grassland. In addition, the warming and cooling effect of land cover change was more significant in the region scale than specific land cover change area.

  16. The effects of seed dispersal on the simulation of long-term forest landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff

    1999-01-01

    The study of forest landscape change requires an understanding of the complex interactions of both spatial and temporal factors. Traditionally, forest gap models have been used to simulate change on small and independent plots. While gap models are useful in examining forest ecological dynamics across temporal scales, large, spatial processes, such as seed dispersal,...

  17. Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matthews, R.B.; Kropff, M.J.; Horie, T.; Bachelet, D.

    1997-01-01

    The likely effects of climate change caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on rice production in Asia were evaluated using two rice crop simulation models, ORYZA1 and SIMRIW, running under fixed-change' climate scenarios and scenarios predicted for a doubled-CO2 (2xCO2) atmosphere

  18. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more

  19. SWAT-simulated hydrological impact of land-use change in the Zanjanrood basin, Northwest Iran

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghaffari, G.; Ghodousi, J.; Ahmadi, H.; Keesstra, S.D.

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of land-use changes on hydrology at the watershed scale can facilitate development of sustainable water resource strategies. This paper investigates the hydrological effects of land-use change in Zanjanrood basin, Iran. The water balance was simulated using the Soil and

  20. Simulating calving-front changes of Greenland’s marine-terminating glaciers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haubner, Konstanze

    glacier retreat to a certain degree and foremost define the variation of retreat rates. The thesis implies the importance of incorporating glacier-front dynamics into ice sheet models in order to match observations and verifies atmospheric and oceanic forcing as important triggers for glacier retreat...... UI outlet glaciers. The change in mass flux resulting from the prescribed glacier retreat contributes to 70% of UI’s mass change over the simulation periods. The residual mass change is due to surface mass balance. A second simulation on the fastest UI glacier (UI-1) reveals that frontal melt rates...

  1. Molecular dynamics simulations of melting behavior of alkane as phase change materials slurry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao Zhonghao; Wang Shuangfeng; Wu Maochun; Zhang Yanlai; Li Fuhuo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The melting behavior of phase change materials slurry was investigated by molecular dynamics simulation method. ► Four different PCM slurry systems including pure water and water/n-nonadecane composite were constructed. ► Amorphous structure and periodic boundary conditions were used in the molecular dynamics simulations. ► The simulated melting temperatures are very close to the published experimental values. - Abstract: The alkane based phase change materials slurry, with high latent heat storage capacity, is effective to enhance the heat transfer rate of traditional fluid. In this paper, the melting behavior of composite phase change materials slurry which consists of n-nonadecane and water was investigated by using molecular dynamics simulation. Four different systems including pure water and water/n-nonadecane composite were constructed with amorphous structure and periodic boundary conditions. The results showed that the simulated density and melting temperature were very close to the published experimental values. Mixing the n-nonadecane into water decreased the mobility but increased the energy storage capacity of composite systems. To describe the melting behavior of alkane based phase change materials slurry on molecular or atomic scale, molecular dynamics simulation is an effective method.

  2. Changing drivers' attitudes towards mobile phone use through participative simulation testing and feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y; Zhang, W; Lesch, M F; Horrey, W J; Chen, C; Wu, S

    2009-12-01

    To assess the effectiveness of a simulation-based participative and feedback approach to change drivers' attitudes towards mobile phone use while driving. 30 experienced drivers were tested. Five scenarios were developed to test drivers' performance with and without a secondary mobile phone task on a medium-fidelity fixed base driving simulator. The treatment group received feedback in the form of video playback of their driving performance, while the control group did not receive any feedback. Attitudes towards mobile phone use were assessed by a questionnaire before, immediately after, and again one month following the experiment to determine the duration of feedback effects. All 30 drivers reported willingness to engage in driving and talking on a mobile phone in some situations. The results of the simulated driving test showed that a secondary mobile phone task significantly degraded driving performance. The treatment group showed significant attitude change towards mobile phone use while driving; the control group had no attitude change. At the one month follow-up, a continued benefit of feedback was reflected in driver attitudes in the treatment group. Participative driving using simulation is a useful tool to demonstrate driving performance degradation in dual task conditions. It was found that feedback in the form of simulation playback is effective in changing drivers' attitudes towards mobile phone use and that attitude change is maintained over a follow-up period of one month.

  3. Spatial Simulation Modelling of Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios in Luangprabang Province, Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khamma Homsysavath

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking Luangprabang province in Lao Peoples’s Democratic Republic (PDR as an example, we simulated future forest cover changes under the business-as-usual (BAU, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios based on the Markov-cellular automata (MCA model. We computed transition probabilities from satellite-derived forest cover maps (1993 and 2000 using the Markov chains, while the “weights of evidence” technique was used to generate transition potential maps. The initial forest cover map (1993, the transition potential maps and the 1993–2000 transition probabilities were used to calibrate the model. Forest cover simulations were then performed from 1993 to 2007 at an annual time-step. The simulated forest cover map for 2007 was compared to the observed (actual forest cover map for 2007 in order to test the accuracy of the model. Following the successful calibration and validation, future forest cover changes were simulated up to 2014 under different scenarios. The MCA simulations under the BAU and pessimistic scenarios projected that current forest areas would decrease, whereas unstocked forest areas would increase in the future. Conversely, the optimistic scenario projected that current forest areas would increase in the future if strict forestry laws enforcing conservation in protected forest areas are implemented. The three simulation scenarios provide a very good case study for simulating future forest cover changes at the subnational level (Luangprabang province. Thus, the future simulated forest cover changes can possibly be used as a guideline to set reference scenarios as well as undertake REDD/REDD+ preparedness activities within the study area.

  4. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  5. Monte Carlo simulation of spectrum changes in a photon beam due to a brass compensator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Custidiano, E.R., E-mail: ernesto7661@gmail.com [Department of Physics, FaCENA, UNNE, Av., Libertad 5470, C.P.3400, Corrientes (Argentina); Valenzuela, M.R., E-mail: meraqval@gmail.com [Department of Physics, FaCENA, UNNE, Av., Libertad 5470, C.P.3400, Corrientes (Argentina); Dumont, J.L., E-mail: Joseluis.Dumont@elekta.com [Elekta CMS Software, St.Louis, MO (United States); McDonnell, J., E-mail: josemc@express.com.ar [Cumbres Institute, Riobamba 1745, C.P.2000, Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Rene, L, E-mail: luismrene@gmail.com [Radiotherapy Center, Crespo 953, C.P.2000, Rosario, Santa Fe (Argentina); Rodriguez Aguirre, J.M., E-mail: juakcho@gmail.com [Department of Physics, FaCENA, UNNE, Av., Libertad 5470, C.P.3400, Corrientes (Argentina)

    2011-06-15

    Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the changes in the incident spectrum when a poly-energetic photon beam passes through a static brass compensator. The simulated photon beam spectrum was evaluated by comparing it against the incident spectra. We also discriminated the changes in the transmitted spectrum produced by each of the microscopic processes. (i.e. Rayleigh scattering, photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production). The results show that the relevant process in the energy range considered is the Compton Effect, as expected for composite materials of intermediate atomic number and energy range considered.

  6. Monte Carlo simulation of spectrum changes in a photon beam due to a brass compensator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Custidiano, E.R.; Valenzuela, M.R.; Dumont, J.L.; McDonnell, J.; Rene, L; Rodriguez Aguirre, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the changes in the incident spectrum when a poly-energetic photon beam passes through a static brass compensator. The simulated photon beam spectrum was evaluated by comparing it against the incident spectra. We also discriminated the changes in the transmitted spectrum produced by each of the microscopic processes. (i.e. Rayleigh scattering, photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production). The results show that the relevant process in the energy range considered is the Compton Effect, as expected for composite materials of intermediate atomic number and energy range considered.

  7. Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Whetton, Peter H.; Jones, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    We analyse temperature and precipitation changes for the late decades of the 21st century (with respect to present day conditions) over 23 land regions of the world from 18 recent transient, climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The analysis...... involves two different forcing scenarios and nine models, and it focuses on model agreement in the simulated regional changes for the summer and winter seasons. While to date very few conclusions have been presented on regional climatic changes, mostly limited to some broad latitudinal bands, our analysis...

  8. Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied

  9. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM......Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... the simulations using both methods, only small differences between the projected changes in hydrological variables for the scenario period were found. Mean annual recharge increased by 15% for the DBS method and 12% for POD, and drain flow increased by 24 and 19%, respectively, while the increases in base flow...

  10. Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Ngada, Narcisse

    2015-06-15

    The complexity and cost of building and running high-power electrical systems make the use of simulations unavoidable. The simulations available today provide great understanding about how systems really operate. This paper helps the reader to gain an insight into simulation in the field of power converters for particle accelerators. Starting with the definition and basic principles of simulation, two simulation types, as well as their leading tools, are presented: analog and numerical simulations. Some practical applications of each simulation type are also considered. The final conclusion then summarizes the main important items to keep in mind before opting for a simulation tool or before performing a simulation.

  11. Input-driven versus turnover-driven controls of simulated changes in soil carbon due to land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyawira, S. S.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.

    2017-08-01

    Historical changes in soil carbon associated with land-use change (LUC) result mainly from the changes in the quantity of litter inputs to the soil and the turnover of carbon in soils. We use a factor separation technique to assess how the input-driven and turnover-driven controls, as well as their synergies, have contributed to historical changes in soil carbon associated with LUC. We apply this approach to equilibrium simulations of present-day and pre-industrial land use performed using the dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH. Our results show that both the input-driven and turnover-driven changes generally contribute to a gain in soil carbon in afforested regions and a loss in deforested regions. However, in regions where grasslands have been converted to croplands, we find an input-driven loss that is partly offset by a turnover-driven gain, which stems from a decrease in the fire-related carbon losses. Omitting land management through crop and wood harvest substantially reduces the global losses through the input-driven changes. Our study thus suggests that the dominating control of soil carbon losses is via the input-driven changes, which are more directly accessible to human management than the turnover-driven ones.

  12. Phase-field simulations of pore migration and morphology change in thermal gradients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vance, Ian W.; Millett, Paul C., E-mail: pmillett@uark.edu

    2017-07-15

    Here we present a phase-field simulation model that captures the thermal-gradient-driven migration of pores in oxide fuel associated with fuel restructuring. The model utilizes a Cahn-Hilliard equation supplemented with an advection term to describe the vapor transport of fuel material through the pore interior due to gradients in vapor pressure. Simulations demonstrate that the model not only predicts pore migration towards the centerline of the fuel, but also a concurrent change in pore shape during migration from an initially isotropic morphology to either a lenticular morphology or a prolate morphology depending on the vapor transport conditions. This model is a necessary first step to conducting accurate simulations of the microscopic changes that occur during the complicated process of oxide fuel restructuring.

  13. Greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change: A critical appraisal of simulations and observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlesinger, M.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book is the culmination of a Workshop on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations which was held at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, during 8--12 May 1989. The objectives of the Workshop were to: (1) present and evaluate the current status of climate model simulations of greenhouse-gas-induced changes of both the equilibrium and nonequilibrium (transient) climates; (2) present and assess the current status of the observations of global and regional climates from the beginning of the industrial revolution to the present, circa 1850 to 1989; (3) present reconstructions of climatic change during the last millennium to determine the ''natural variability'' of climate on the intra-century time scale; (4) critically evaluate whether or not the climate has changes from circa 1850 to 1989; and (5) compare the observations with the model simulations to ascertain whether a greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change has occurred and, if not, to estimate when in the future such a climatic change will likely become detectable against the background of the ''natural variability.''

  14. Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruci Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

  15. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D.S.; Krol, M.C.; Emmons, L.K.; Lamarque, J.F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F.J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W.J.; Derwent, R.G.; Doherty, R.M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H.J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Lawrence, M.G.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Sanderson, M.G.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; Noije, van T.P.C.; Zeng, G.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  16. TRIDYN - binary collision simulation of atomic collisions dynamic composition changes in solids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, W.; Eckstein, W.

    1988-05-01

    The report deals with the computerized simulation of the following problem: a beam of fast ions entering a solid substance is slowed down and scattered due to electronic interaction and nuclear collisions. Together with created recoil atoms local compositional changes are produced. For large fluences collisional mixing is caused in layered substances. (BHO)

  17. The rheology of concentrated dispersions: structure changes and shear thickening in experiments and computer simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boersma, W.H.; Laven, J.; Stein, H.N.; Moldenaers, P.; Keunings, R.

    1992-01-01

    The flow-induced changes in the microstructure and rheol. of very concd., shear thickening dispersions are studied. Results obtained for polystyrene sphere dispersions are compared with previous data and computer simulations to give better insight into the processes occurring in the dispersions. [on

  18. Experiential learning and cognitive tools: The impact of simulations on conceptual change in continuing healthcare education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reeves, Thomas; Reeves, Patricia; McKenney, Susan

    2014-01-01

    Reeves, T. C., Reeves, P. M., & McKenney, S. (2013). Experiential learning and cognitive tools: The impact of simulations on conceptual change in continuing healthcare education. In J. M. Spector, B. B. Lockee, S. E. Smaldino, & M. Herring (eds.), Learning, problem solving, and mindtools: Essays in

  19. Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of defo...

  20. Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: comparison with observations and projected near-future changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shindell, D.T.; Krol, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe- art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show

  1. Observation des influences du changement du couvert forestier sur le comportement hydrologique de grands bassins versants tropicaux a l'aide de la teledetection numerique: Cas du bassin versant de Dong Nai, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Trinh Hung

    Monitoring hydrological behavior of a large tropical watershed following a forest cover variation has an important role in water resource management planning as well as for forest sustainable management. Traditional methods in forest hydrology studies are Experimental watersheds, Upstream-downstream, Experimental plots, Statistical regional analysis and Watershed simulation. Those methodes have limitations for large watersheds concerning the monitoring time, the lack of input data especially about forest cover and the capacity of extrapolating results accurately in terms of large watersheds. Moreover, there is still currently a scientific debate in forest ecology on relation between water and forest. The reason of this problem comes from geographical differences in publication concerning study zones, experimental watershed size and applied methods. It gives differences in the conclusions on the influence of tropical forest cover change on the changes of outlet water and yet on the yearly runoff in terms of large watershed. In order to exceed the limitations of actual methods, to solve the difficulty of acquiring forest cover data and to have a better understanding of the relation between tropical forest cover change and hydrological behavior evolution of a large watershed, it is necessary to develop a new approach by using numeric remote sensing. We used the watershed of Dong Nai as a case study. Results show that a fusion between TM and ETM+ Landsat image series and hydro-meteorologic data allow us to observe and detect flooding trends and flooding peaks after an intensive forest cover change from 16% to 20%. Flooding frequency and flooding peaks have clearly decreased when there is an increase of the forest cover from 1983 to 1990. The influence of tropical forest cover on the hydrological behavior is varying with geographical locations of watershed. There is a significant relation between forest cover evolution and environmental facteurs as the runoff

  2. Can role-play with interactive simulations enhance climate change knowledge, affect and intent to act?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Fracassi, E. P.; Franck, T.; Kapmeier, F.; Kurker, V.; Jones, A.; Rath, K.

    2017-12-01

    The strong scientific consensus about the reality and risks of anthropogenic climate change stands in stark contrast to widespread confusion and complacency among the public. Many efforts to close that gap, grounded in the information deficit model of risk communication, provide scientific information on climate change through reports and presentations. However, research shows that showing people research does not work: the gap between scientific and public understanding of climate change remains wide. Tools that are rigorously grounded in the science and motivate action on climate change are urgently needed. Here we assess the impact of one such tool, an interactive, role-play simulation, World Climate. Participants take the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement limiting warming to no more than 2°C. The C-ROADS climate simulation model then provides participants with immediate feedback about the expected impacts of their decisions. Participants use C-ROADS to explore the climate system and use the results to refine their negotiating positions, learning about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations and decision-making. Pre- and post-survey results from 21 sessions in eight nations showed significant gains in participants' climate change knowledge, affective engagement, intent to take action, and desire to learn. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in participants' desire to learn more and intention to act were associated with gains in affective engagement, particularly feelings of urgency and hope, but not climate knowledge. Gains were just as strong among participants who oppose government regulation, suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. Results indicate that simulations like World Climate offer a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed

  3. A simulation of the Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter tracking mode for the Chang'E-5 mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fei; Ye, Mao; Yan, Jianguo; Hao, Weifeng; Barriot, Jean-Pierre

    2016-06-01

    The Chang'E-5 mission is the third phase of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Program and will collect and return lunar samples. After sampling, the Orbiter and the ascent vehicle will rendezvous and dock, and both spacecraft will require high precision orbit navigation. In this paper, we present a novel tracking mode-Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter tracking that possibly can be employed during the Chang'E-5 mission. The mathematical formulas for the Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter tracking mode are given and implemented in our newly-designed lunar spacecraft orbit determination and gravity field recovery software, the LUnar Gravity REcovery and Analysis Software/System (LUGREAS). The simulated observables permit analysis of the potential contribution Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter tracking could make to precision orbit determination for the Orbiter. Our results show that the Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter Range Rate has better geometric constraint on the orbit, and is more sensitive than the traditional two-way range rate that only tracks data between the Earth station and lunar Orbiter. After combining the Four-way lunar Lander-Orbiter Range Rate data with the traditional two-way range rate data and considering the Lander position error and lunar gravity field error, the accuracy of precision orbit determination for the Orbiter in the simulation was improved significantly, with the biggest improvement being one order of magnitude, and the Lander position could be constrained to sub-meter level. This new tracking mode could provide a reference for the Chang'E-5 mission and have enormous potential for the positioning of future lunar farside Lander due to its relay characteristic.

  4. A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanaroglou, P.; Maoh, H.; Woudsma, C.; Marshall, S.

    2008-01-01

    Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

  5. Volumetric change of simulated radioactive waste glass irradiated by electron accelerator. [Silica glass

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Seichi; Furuya, Hirotaka; Inagaki, Yaohiro; Kozaka, Tetsuo; Sugisaki, Masayasu

    1987-11-01

    Density changes of simulated radioactive waste glasses, silica glass and Pyrex glass irradiated by an electron accelerator were measured by a ''sink-float'' technique. The density changes of the waste and silica glasses were less than 0.05 %, irradiated at 2.0 MeV up to the fluence of 1.7 x 10/sup 17/ ecm/sup 2/, while were remarkably smaller than that of Pyrex glass of 0.18 % shrinkage. Precision of the measurements in the density changes of the waste glass was lower than that of Pyrex glass possibly because of the inhomogeneity of the waste glass

  6. Molecular dynamics simulation of structural changes during the collision of copper nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas T, Justo; Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear, Lima; Copa, Betty

    2009-01-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations with embedded-atom potential (EAM) have been performed to study the energetic and structural changes during the collision and coalescence of two Cu n nanoparticles. We simulated collision of nanoparticles at several temperatures below the melting point and with different impact energy. Analyzing the potential energy change during the collision we identify three clearly defined stages. The pair correlation function and the pair analysis technique are used to reveal the structural changes in the collision process. The variation in the time of the population of different pairs has been quantified, being observed diverse structural transformations. During the collision of two equal icosahedral nanoparticles ( Cu 55 ) has been observed different behavior of 1551 pairs depending on the impact velocity. (author).

  7. Simulated bat populations erode when exposed to climate change projections for western North America.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Hayes

    Full Text Available Recent research has demonstrated that temperature and precipitation conditions correlate with successful reproduction in some insectivorous bat species that live in arid and semiarid regions, and that hot and dry conditions correlate with reduced lactation and reproductive output by females of some species. However, the potential long-term impacts of climate-induced reproductive declines on bat populations in western North America are not well understood. We combined results from long-term field monitoring and experiments in our study area with information on vital rates to develop stochastic age-structured population dynamics models and analyzed how simulated fringed myotis (Myotis thysanodes populations changed under projected future climate conditions in our study area near Boulder, Colorado (Boulder Models and throughout western North America (General Models. Each simulation consisted of an initial population of 2,000 females and an approximately stable age distribution at the beginning of the simulation. We allowed each population to be influenced by the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation for our study area and a generalized range-wide model projected through year 2086, for each of four carbon emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5. Each population simulation was repeated 10,000 times. Of the 8 Boulder Model simulations, 1 increased (+29.10%, 3 stayed approximately stable (+2.45%, +0.05%, -0.03%, and 4 simulations decreased substantially (-44.10%, -44.70%, -44.95%, -78.85%. All General Model simulations for western North America decreased by >90% (-93.75%, -96.70%, -96.70%, -98.75%. These results suggest that a changing climate in western North America has the potential to quickly erode some forest bat populations including species of conservation concern, such as fringed myotis.

  8. Changes in the dark focus of accommodation associated with simulator sickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowlkes, Jennifer E.; Kennedy, Robert S.; Hettinger, Lawrence J.; Harm, Deborah L.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between the dark focus of accommodation and simulator sickness, a form of motion sickness, was examined in three experiments. In Experiment 1, dark focus was measured in 18 college students in a laboratory setting before and after they viewed a projected motion scene depicting low altitude helicopter flight. In Experiments 2 and 3, dark focus was measured in pilots (N = 16 and 23, respectively) before and after they 'flew' in moving-base helicopter flight simulators with optical infinity CRT visual systems. The results showed that individuals who experienced simulator sickness had either an inward (myopic) change in dark focus (Experiments 1 and 3) or attenuated outward shifts in dark focus (Experiment 2) relative to participants who did not get sick. These results are consonant with the hypothesis that parasympathetic activity, which may be associated with simulator sickness, should result in changes in dark focus that are in a myopic direction. Night vision goggles, virtual environments, extended periods in microgravity, and heads-up displays all produce related visual symptomatology. Changes in dark focus may occur in these conditions, as well, and should be measured.

  9. Glucose changes and working memory in individuals with type 1 diabetes during air pressure changes simulating skydiving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousef, Mohammad; Westman, Anton; Lindberg, Ann; de Lacerda, Cecilia; Jendle, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Several countries restrict individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) from skydiving because of concerns over possible alterations in consciousness. To our knowledge, glucose levels and working memory in individuals with T1DM during skydiving have not been assessed earlier. The objective of this study was to investigate changes in glucose levels and working memory in selected subjects with T1DM compared with control subjects without diabetes mellitus (DM) during ambient air pressure changes as those anticipated during standard skydiving. Six subjects with T1DM and six controls were included. Using a hypobaric chamber, the ambient air pressure was changed to simulate a standard skydive from 4,000 m (13,000 feet) above mean sea level. The procedure was repeated six times to mimic a day of skydiving activity with a median of 8.7 h/day (5(th), 95(th) percentile: 8.1, 9.8 h). All subjects carried a continuous glucose monitor (CGM). Capillary glucose tests were taken in order to calibrate the CGM. Hemoglobin oxygen saturation, heart rate, and working memory, evaluated through digit span, were monitored regularly. No subject experienced documented symptomatic hypoglycemia with impaired working memory during the simulations. One asymptomatic hypoglycemia episode with a plasma glucose level of glucose levels. Interstitial glucose levels of memory between the T1DM patients and the controls. This study of interstitial glucose levels and working memory could not show the activity-specific risk factor (i.e., repetitive rapid-onset hypobaric hypoxia exposures) to be a greater safety concern for selected subjects with T1DM compared with subjects without DM during a simulated day of skydiving. Further studies are needed to clarify the suitability of subjects with T1DM to participate in this air sport.

  10. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  11. Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of historical land use induced land cover change (LULCC on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. To assess those impacts, multiple indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation were used. We contrast the impact of LULCC on extremes with the impact of an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppmv to 375 ppmv. In general, consistent changes in both high and low temperature extremes are similar to the simulated change in mean temperature caused by LULCC and are restricted to regions of intense modification. The impact of LULCC on both means and on most temperature extremes is statistically significant. While the magnitude of the LULCC-induced change in the extremes can be of similar magnitude to the response to the change in CO2, the impacts of LULCC are much more geographically isolated. For most models, the impacts of LULCC oppose the impact of the increase in CO2 except for one model where the CO2-caused changes in the extremes are amplified. While we find some evidence that individual models respond consistently to LULCC in the simulation of changes in rainfall and rainfall extremes, LULCC's role in affecting rainfall is much less clear and less commonly statistically significant, with the exception of a consistent impact over South East Asia. Since the simulated response of mean and extreme temperatures to LULCC is relatively large, we conclude that unless this forcing is included, we risk erroneous conclusions regarding the drivers of temperature changes over regions of intense LULCC.

  12. Direct numerical simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer and phase changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juric, D.; Tryggvason, G.; Han, J.

    1997-01-01

    Direct numerical simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer, and phase changes are presented. The simulations are made possible by a recently developed finite difference/front tracking method based on the one-field formulation of the governing equations where a single set of conservation equations is written for all the phases involved. The conservation equations are solved on a fixed rectangular grid, but the phase boundaries are kept sharp by tracking them explicitly by a moving grid of lower dimension. The method is discussed and applications to boiling heat transfer and the solidification of drops colliding with a wall are shown.

  13. Identifying the potential of changes to blood sample logistics using simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Pelle Morten Thomas; Jacobsen, Peter; Poulsen, Jørgen Hjelm

    2013-01-01

    of the simulation was to evaluate changes made to the transportation of blood samples between wards and the laboratory. The average- (AWT) and maximum waiting time (MWT) from a blood sample was drawn at the ward until it was received at the laboratory, and the distribution of arrivals of blood samples......, each of the scenarios was tested in terms of what amount of resources would give the optimal result. The simulations showed a big improvement potential in implementing a new technology/mean for transporting the blood samples. The pneumatic tube system showed the biggest potential lowering the AWT...

  14. Simulating soil organic carbon stock as affected by land cover change and climate change, Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soleimani, Azam; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Jafari, Mostafa; Francaviglia, Rosa

    2017-12-01

    Soil organic carbon (SOC) contains a considerable portion of the world's terrestrial carbon stock, and is affected by changes in land cover and climate. SOC modeling is a useful approach to assess the impact of land use, land use change and climate change on carbon (C) sequestration. This study aimed to: (i) test the performance of RothC model using data measured from different land covers in Hyrcanian forests (northern Iran); and (ii) predict changes in SOC under different climate change scenarios that may occur in the future. The following land covers were considered: Quercus castaneifolia (QC), Acer velutinum (AV), Alnus subcordata (AS), Cupressus sempervirens (CS) plantations and a natural forest (NF). For assessment of future climate change projections the Fifth Assessment IPCC report was used. These projections were generated with nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) leading to very low and high greenhouse gases concentration levels (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively), and for four 20year-periods up to 2099 (2030s, 2050s, 2070s and 2090s). Simulated values of SOC correlated well with measured data (R 2 =0.64 to 0.91) indicating a good efficiency of the RothC model. Our results showed an overall decrease in SOC stocks by 2099 under all land covers and climate change scenarios, but the extent of the decrease varied with the climate models, the emissions scenarios, time periods and land covers. Acer velutinum plantation was the most sensitive land cover to future climate change (range of decrease 8.34-21.83tCha -1 ). Results suggest that modeling techniques can be effectively applied for evaluating SOC stocks, allowing the identification of current patterns in the soil and the prediction of future conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

    2018-06-01

    In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

  16. Improved thermal lattice Boltzmann model for simulation of liquid-vapor phase change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Zhou, P.; Yan, H. J.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, an improved thermal lattice Boltzmann (LB) model is proposed for simulating liquid-vapor phase change, which is aimed at improving an existing thermal LB model for liquid-vapor phase change [S. Gong and P. Cheng, Int. J. Heat Mass Transfer 55, 4923 (2012), 10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2012.04.037]. First, we emphasize that the replacement of ∇ .(λ ∇ T ) /∇.(λ ∇ T ) ρ cV ρ cV with ∇ .(χ ∇ T ) is an inappropriate treatment for diffuse interface modeling of liquid-vapor phase change. Furthermore, the error terms ∂t 0(T v ) +∇ .(T vv ) , which exist in the macroscopic temperature equation recovered from the previous model, are eliminated in the present model through a way that is consistent with the philosophy of the LB method. Moreover, the discrete effect of the source term is also eliminated in the present model. Numerical simulations are performed for droplet evaporation and bubble nucleation to validate the capability of the model for simulating liquid-vapor phase change. It is shown that the numerical results of the improved model agree well with those of a finite-difference scheme. Meanwhile, it is found that the replacement of ∇ .(λ ∇ T ) /∇ .(λ ∇ T ) ρ cV ρ cV with ∇ .(χ ∇ T ) leads to significant numerical errors and the error terms in the recovered macroscopic temperature equation also result in considerable errors.

  17. Numerical simulation of pore pressure changes in levee under flood conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanisz, Jacek; Borecka, Aleksandra; Pilecki, Zenon; Kaczmarczyk, Robert

    2017-11-01

    The article discusses the potential for using numerical simulation to assess the development of deformation and pore pressure changes in a levee as a result of the increase and decrease of the flood wave. The simulation made in FLAC 2D did not take into account the filter-erosion deformation associated with seepage in the levee. The simulations were carried out for a field experimental storage consisting of two combined levees, which was constructed with the help of homogeneous cohesive materials with different filtration coefficients. Calculated and measured pore pressure changes were analysed at 4 monitoring points. The water level was increased to 4 m in 96 hours and decreased in 120 hours. The characteristics of the calculated and measured pore pressure changes over time were similar. The maximum values of the calculated and measured pore pressure were almost identical. The only differences were the greater delay of the experimental levee response to changes in water level increase compared to the response of the numerical model. These differences were probably related to filtering-erosion effects during seepage in the levee.

  18. Simulated Vegetation Response to Climate Change in California: The Importance of Seasonal Production Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Pitts, B.

    2013-12-01

    MC1 dynamic global vegetation model simulates vegetation response to climate change by simulating vegetation production, soil biogeochemistry, plant biogeography and fire. It has been applied at a wide range of spatial scales, yet the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated vegetation production, which drives the model's response to climate change, has not been examined in detail. We ran MC1 for California at a relatively fine scale, 30 arc-seconds, for the historical period (1895-2006) and for the future (2007-2100), using downscaled data from four CMIP3-based climate projections: A2 and B1 GHG emissions scenarios simulated by PCM and GFDL GCMs. The use of these four climate projections aligns our work with a body of climate change research work commissioned by the California Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. The four climate projections vary not only in terms of changes in their annual means, but in the seasonality of projected climate change. We calibrated MC1 using MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011 as a guide, and adapting a published technique for adjusting simulated vegetation production by increasing the simulated plant rooting depths. We evaluated the simulation results by comparing the model output for the historical period with several benchmark datasets, summarizing by EPA Level 3 Ecoregions. Multi-year summary statistics of model predictions compare moderately well with Kuchler's potential natural vegetation map, National Biomass and Carbon Dataset, Leenhouts' compilation of fire return intervals, and, of course, the MODIS NPP data for 2000-2011. When we compared MC1's monthly NPP values with MODIS monthly GPP data (2000-2011), however, the seasonal patterns compared very poorly, with NPP/GPP ratio for spring (Mar-Apr-May) often exceeding 1, and the NPP/GPP ratio for summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) often flattening to zero. This suggests MC1's vegetation production algorithms are overly biased for spring production at the cost of summer production. We

  19. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  20. Monitoring, analyzing and simulating of spatial-temporal changes of landscape pattern over mining area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pei; Han, Ruimei; Wang, Shuangting

    2014-11-01

    According to the merits of remotely sensed data in depicting regional land cover and Land changes, multi- objective information processing is employed to remote sensing images to analyze and simulate land cover in mining areas. In this paper, multi-temporal remotely sensed data were selected to monitor the pattern, distri- bution and trend of LUCC and predict its impacts on ecological environment and human settlement in mining area. The monitor, analysis and simulation of LUCC in this coal mining areas are divided into five steps. The are information integration of optical and SAR data, LULC types extraction with SVM classifier, LULC trends simulation with CA Markov model, landscape temporal changes monitoring and analysis with confusion matrixes and landscape indices. The results demonstrate that the improved data fusion algorithm could make full use of information extracted from optical and SAR data; SVM classifier has an efficient and stable ability to obtain land cover maps, which could provide a good basis for both land cover change analysis and trend simulation; CA Markov model is able to predict LULC trends with good performance, and it is an effective way to integrate remotely sensed data with spatial-temporal model for analysis of land use / cover change and corresponding environmental impacts in mining area. Confusion matrixes are combined with landscape indices to evaluation and analysis show that, there was a sustained downward trend in agricultural land and bare land, but a continues growth trend tendency in water body, forest and other lands, and building area showing a wave like change, first increased and then decreased; mining landscape has undergone a from small to large and large to small process of fragmentation, agricultural land is the strongest influenced landscape type in this area, and human activities are the primary cause, so the problem should be pay more attentions by government and other organizations.

  1. Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cubasch, Ulrich

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

  2. The importance of parameterization when simulating the hydrologic response of vegetative land-cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Jeremy; Stengel, Victoria; Rendon, Samuel; Banta, John

    2017-08-01

    Computer models of hydrologic systems are frequently used to investigate the hydrologic response of land-cover change. If the modeling results are used to inform resource-management decisions, then providing robust estimates of uncertainty in the simulated response is an important consideration. Here we examine the importance of parameterization, a necessarily subjective process, on uncertainty estimates of the simulated hydrologic response of land-cover change. Specifically, we applied the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model to a 1.4 km2 watershed in southern Texas to investigate the simulated hydrologic response of brush management (the mechanical removal of woody plants), a discrete land-cover change. The watershed was instrumented before and after brush-management activities were undertaken, and estimates of precipitation, streamflow, and evapotranspiration (ET) are available; these data were used to condition and verify the model. The role of parameterization in brush-management simulation was evaluated by constructing two models, one with 12 adjustable parameters (reduced parameterization) and one with 1305 adjustable parameters (full parameterization). Both models were subjected to global sensitivity analysis as well as Monte Carlo and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) conditioning to identify important model inputs and to estimate uncertainty in several quantities of interest related to brush management. Many realizations from both parameterizations were identified as behavioral in that they reproduce daily mean streamflow acceptably well according to Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, percent bias, and coefficient of determination. However, the total volumetric ET difference resulting from simulated brush management remains highly uncertain after conditioning to daily mean streamflow, indicating that streamflow data alone are not sufficient to inform the model inputs that influence the simulated outcomes of brush management

  3. Metaconceptually-Enhanced Simulation-Based Inquiry: Effects on Eighth Grade Students' Conceptual Change and Science Epistemic Beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kun; Ge, Xun; Eseryel, Deniz

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of metaconceptually-enhanced, simulation-based inquiry learning on eighth grade students' conceptual change in science and their development of science epistemic beliefs. Two experimental groups studied the topics of motion and force using the same computer simulations but with different simulation guides: one…

  4. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  5. Evaluation of induced color changes in chicken breast meat during simulation of pink color defect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holownia, K; Chinnan, M S; Reynolds, A E; Koehler, P E

    2003-06-01

    The objective of the study was to establish a pink threshold and simulate the pink defect in cooked chicken breast meat with treatment combinations that would induce significant changes in the color of raw and cooked meat. The subjective pink threshold used in judging pink discoloration was established at a* = 3.8. Samples of three color groups (normal, lighter than normal, and darker than normal) of boneless, skinless chicken breast muscles were selected based on instrumental color values. The in situ changes were induced using sodium chloride, sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium erythorbate, and sodium nitrite at two levels: present and not present. Fillets in all treatments were subjected to individual injections, followed by tumbling, cooking, and chilling. Samples were analyzed for color [lightness (L*), red/green axis (a*), yellow/blue axis (b*)] and reflectance spectra. Simulation of the pink defect was achieved in eight of the 16 treatment combinations when sodium nitrite was present and in an additional two treatment combinations when it was absent. Pinking in cooked samples was affected (P meat color. Results confirmed that it was possible to simulate the undesired pinking in cooked chicken white meat when in situ conditions were induced by sodium chloride, sodium tripolyphosphate, and sodium nitrite. The continuation of the simulation study can aid in developing alternative processing methods to eliminate potential pink defects.

  6. Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aizen, V B; Aizen, E M; Kuzmichonok, V A

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we estimated the current glacier state and forecast the potential impact of global and regional climate change on the glaciers and glacier runoff in the Tien Shan. General (G) and detailed (D) simulations were developed based on assessment of the Tien Shan glacier recession between 1943 and 2003 using an iterative stepwise increase in the equilibrium line altitude of 20 m. The G simulation was developed for 2777 grids each of which covered over 1000 km 2 of glacier surface and D for the 15 953 Tien Shan glaciers. Both simulations employed glacier morphometric characteristics derived from Digital Elevation Model based on remote sensing data, high resolution maps and in situ GPS validation. Simulated changes in glacier area demonstrated that a possible increase in air temperature of 1 deg. C at E-barLA must be compensated by a 100 mm increase in precipitation at the same altitude if Tien Shan glaciers are to be maintained in their current state. An increase in mean air temperature of 4 deg. C and precipitation of 1.1 times the current level could increase E-barLA by 570 m during the 21st century. Under these conditions, the number of glaciers, glacier covered area, glacier volume, and glacier runoff are predicted to be 94%, 69%, 75%, and 75% of current values. The maximum glacier runoff may reach as much as 1.25 times current levels while the minimum will likely equal zero

  7. Informing Hospital Change Processes through Visualization and Simulation: A Case Study at a Children's Emergency Clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Johanna; Dalholm, Elisabeth Hornyánszky; Johansson, Gerd

    2014-01-01

    To demonstrate the use of visualization and simulation tools in order to involve stakeholders and inform the process in hospital change processes, illustrated by an empirical study from a children's emergency clinic. Reorganization and redevelopment of a hospital is a complex activity that involves many stakeholders and demands. Visualization and simulation tools have proven useful for involving practitioners and eliciting relevant knowledge. More knowledge is desired about how these tools can be implemented in practice for hospital planning processes. A participatory planning process including practitioners and researchers was executed over a 3-year period to evaluate a combination of visualization and simulation tools to involve stakeholders in the planning process and to elicit knowledge about needs and requirements. The initial clinic proposal from the architect was discarded as a result of the empirical study. Much general knowledge about the needs of the organization was extracted by means of the adopted tools. Some of the tools proved to be more accessible than others for the practitioners participating in the study. The combination of tools added value to the process by presenting information in alternative ways and eliciting questions from different angles. Visualization and simulation tools inform a planning process (or other types of change processes) by providing the means to see beyond present demands and current work structures. Long-term involvement in combination with accessible tools is central for creating a participatory setting where the practitioners' knowledge guides the process. © 2014 Vendome Group, LLC.

  8. Monitoring Change of Body Fluid during Physical Exercise using Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Finite Element Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Röthlingshöfer

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Athletes need a balanced body composition in order to achieve maximum performance. Especially dehydration reduces power and endurance during physical exercise. Monitoring the body composition, with a focus on body fluid, may help to avoid reduction in performance and other health problems.For this, a potential measurement method is bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS. BIS is a simple, non-invasive measurement method that allows to determine different body compartments (body fluid, fat, fat-free mass. However, because many physiological changes occur during physical exercise that can influence impedance measurements and distort results, it cannot be assumed that the BIS data are related to body fluid loss alone.To confirm that BIS can detect body fluid loss due to physical exercise, finite element (FE simulations were done. Besides impedance, also the current density contribution during a BIS measurement was modeled to evaluate the influence of certain tissues on BIS measurements.Simulations were done using CST EM Studio (Computer Simulation Technology, Germany and the Visible Human Data Set (National Library of Medicine, USA. In addition to the simulations, BIS measurements were also made on athletes. Comparison between the measured bioimpedance data and simulation data, as well as body weight loss during sport, indicates that BIS measurements are sensitive enough to monitor body fluid loss during physical exercise.doi:10.5617/jeb.178 J Electr Bioimp, vol. 2, pp. 79-85, 2011

  9. Computer simulation of model cohesive powders: Plastic consolidation, structural changes and elasticity under isotropic loads

    OpenAIRE

    Gilabert, Francisco; Roux, Jean-Noël; Castellanos, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The quasistatic behavior of a simple 2D model of a cohesive powder under isotropic loads is investigated by Discrete Element simulations. The loose packing states, as studied in a previous paper, undergo important structural changes under growing confining pressure P, while solid fraction \\Phi irreversibly increases by large amounts. The system state goes through three stages, with different forms of the plastic consolidation curve \\Phi(P*), under growing reduced press...

  10. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2016-01-01

    SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of

  11. Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

    2018-05-12

    Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018

  12. Variabilité hydrologique et vulnérabilité des populations du Lago Janauaca (Amazonas, Brésil Variabilidade hidrológica e vulnerabilidade das populações do Lago Janauaca (Amazonas, BrasilHydrological variability and human vulnerability in Lago Janauaca (Amazonas, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josyane Ronchail

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Étroitement liées à la pulsation saisonnière des crues de l’Amazone, les activités des petits paysans et pêcheurs des várzeas sont particulièrement sensibles aux manifestations plus extrêmes de la variabilité hydrologique. Ce travail propose d’appréhender la vulnérabilité de ces communautés riveraines aux crues et étiages extrêmes autour du Lago Janauaca, près de Manaus, dans un contexte climatique d’intensification du cycle hydrologique. Dans un premier temps nous proposons de caractériser la variabilité hydrologique du Rio Solimões et son impact spatial sur le Lago. Si l’extension du phénomène est frappante, les dynamiques anthropiques sur les rives du lac sont elles aussi importantes. Celles-ci s’expliquent plus par l’ouverture de pistes entre le lac et la BR319, que par l’expansion des cultures traditionnelles qui restent modérée. Enfin, une série d’entretiens menés auprès des riverains dévoile une relation complexe entre les différentes activités des populations et les extrêmes hydrologiques. Les sécheresses y apparaissent comme les perturbations majeures, non seulement à cause de leurs impacts sur les cultures, mais surtout en raison des difficultés qu’elles entraînent pour les mobilités locale et régionale.Intimamente relacionado com o pulso de inundação sazonal do rio Amazonas, as atividades dos agricultores e pescadores das várzeas são particularmente sensíveis aos eventos mais extremos da variabilidade hidrológica. Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar a vulnerabilidade das comunidades ribeirinhas às cheias e às estiagens extremas ao redor do Lago Janauaca, próximo de Manaus, em um contexto de intensificação do ciclo hidrológico. Inicialmente, propomos uma caracterização da variabilidade hidrológica do Rio Solimões e do seu impacto espacial sobre o lago. As dinâmicas antrópicas às margens do lago são importantes também. Elas são mais decorrentes pela abertura

  13. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-01-01

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision...... crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two...

  14. Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Dethloff

    2010-01-01

    investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.

  15. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... and reanalysis data products. - The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990)based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change...

  16. Changes in the Optical Properties of Simulated Shuttle Waste Water Deposits- Urine Darkening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albyn, Keith; Edwards, David; Alred, John

    2004-01-01

    Manned spacecraft have historically dumped the crew generated waste waster overboard, into the environment in which the spacecraft operates, sometimes depositing the waste water on the external spacecraft surfaces. The change in optical properties of wastewater deposited on spacecraft external surfaces, from exposure to space environmental effects, is not well understood. This study used nonvolatile residue (NVR) from Human Urine to simulate wastewater deposits and documents the changes in the optical properties of the NVR deposits after exposure to ultra violet (UV) radiation. Twenty NVR samples of, 0-angstromes/sq cm to 1000-angstromes/sq cm, and one sample contaminated with 1 to 2-mg/sq cm were exposed to UV radiation over the course of approximately 6151 equivalent sun hours (ESH). Random changes in sample mass, NVR, solar absorbance, and infrared emission were observed during the study. Significant changes in the UV transmittance were observed for one sample contaminated at the mg/sq cm level.

  17. Changes in the Optical Properties of Simulated Shuttle Waste Water Deposits: Urine Darkening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albyn, Keith; Edwards, David; Alred, John

    2003-01-01

    Manned spacecraft have historically dumped the crew generated waste water overboard, into the environment in which the spacecraft operates, sometimes depositing the waste water on the external spacecraft surfaces. The change in optical properties of wastewater deposited on spacecraft external surfaces, from exposure to space environmental effects, is not well understood. This study used nonvolatile residue (NVR) from Human Urine to simulate wastewater deposits and documents the changes in the optical properties of the NVR deposits after exposure to ultra violet(UV)radiation. Twenty four NVR samples of, 0-angstromes/sq cm to 1000-angstromes/sq cm, and one sample contaminated with 1 to 2-mg/sq cm were exposed to UV radiation over the course of approximately 6151 equivalent sun hours (ESH). Random changes in sample mass, NVR, solar absorbance, and infrared emission were observed during the study. Significant changes in the UV transmittance were observed for one sample contaminated at the mg/sq cm level.

  18. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  19. Quantitative analysis and simulation of land use changes in the Pearl River Delta, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honghui; Zeng, Yongnian; Zou, Bin; Xiao, Pengfeng; Hu, Deyong; Peng, Jianchao

    2007-06-01

    This paper analyzes and simulates the land use changes in the Pearl River Delta, China, using Longgang City as a case study. The region has pioneered the nation in economic development and urbanization process. Tremendous land use changes have been witnessed since the economic reform in 1978. Land use changes are analyzed and simulated by using stochastic cellular automata model, land use trajectories analysis, spatial indices and multi-temporal TM images of Longgang City (TM1987, TM1991, TM1995, TM1999, TM2003, TM2005) in order to understand how urbanization has transformed the non-urban land to urban land and estimate the consequent environment and ecological impacts in this region. The analysis and simulation results show that urban land continues to sprawl along road and fringe of towns, and concomitant to this development is the loss of agricultural land, orchards and fish ponds. This study provides new evidence with spatial details about the uneven land development in the Pearl River Delta.

  20. The physics and dynamics of the climate system simulation of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, J.F.B.

    1991-01-01

    The increases in atmospheric Greenhouse gases since 1860 have a radiative effect equivalent to a 40% increase in carbon dioxide concentrations, and by the middle of the next century, are expected to be equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Simulations with detailed climate models indicate that this would produce a warming of 2 to 5 K in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium, with accompanying changes in precipitation, sea level and other parameters. The observed increase of 0.5 K since 1900 is consistent with the lower range of the estimated potential increase, allowing for a possible slowing of the global mean warming due to the ocean's large thermal inertia. There is an ever pressing need to predict the likely changes in climate due to increases in trace gases and detailed 3-dimensional models of climate are the most promising method of providing the detailed information required for climatic impact assessment. This paper is arranged as follows: 1. Introduction, why model climate. 2. The Greenhouse effect. 3. The principal gases, past, present and future. 4. Climate feedbacks in CO 2 experiments. 5. Equilibrium climate change due to increased CO 2 . 6. Modelling the transient response to increases in trace gases. 7. Uncertainties in the simulation and detection of the climatic effect of increased trace gases. 8. Appeals to the past; simulations for 9000 years before present (9 K bp). 13 figs., 3 tabs., 33 refs

  1. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  2. Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Prats

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

  3. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Frid, Leonardo; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2018-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to any number of possible transitions. A current limitation of the STSM method, however, is that all of the state variables must be discrete.Here we present a new approach for extending a STSM, in order to account for continuous state variables, called a state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows (STSM-SF). The STSM-SF method allows for any number of continuous stocks to be defined for every spatial cell in the STSM, along with a suite of continuous flows specifying the rates at which stock levels change over time. The change in the level of each stock is then simulated forward in time, for each spatial cell, as a discrete-time stochastic process. The method differs from the traditional systems dynamics approach to stock-flow modelling in that the stocks and flows can be spatially-explicit, and the flows can be expressed as a function of the STSM states and transitions.We demonstrate the STSM-SF method by integrating a spatially-explicit carbon (C) budget model with a STSM of LULC change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. In this example, continuous stocks are pools of terrestrial C, while the flows are the possible fluxes of C between these pools. Importantly, several of these C fluxes are triggered by corresponding LULC transitions in the STSM. Model outputs include changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of C pools and fluxes across the landscape in response to projected future changes in LULC over the next 50 years.The new STSM-SF method allows both discrete and continuous state variables to be integrated into a STSM, including interactions between

  4. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  5. Simulated hydrologic response to climate change during the 21st century in New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Sturtevant, Luke P.

    2018-01-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services and the Department of Health and Human Services, has developed a hydrologic model to assess the effects of short- and long-term climate change on hydrology in New Hampshire. This report documents the model and datasets developed by using the model to predict how climate change will affect the hydrologic cycle and provide data that can be used by State and local agencies to identify locations that are vulnerable to the effects of climate change in areas across New Hampshire. Future hydrologic projections were developed from the output of five general circulation models for two future climate scenarios. The scenarios are based on projected future greenhouse gas emissions and estimates of land-use and land-cover change within a projected global economic framework. An evaluation of the possible effect of projected future temperature on modeling of evapotranspiration is summarized to address concerns regarding the implications of the future climate on model parameters that are based on climate variables. The results of the model simulations are hydrologic projections indicating increasing streamflow across the State with large increases in streamflow during winter and early spring and general decreases during late spring and summer. Wide spatial variability in changes to groundwater recharge is projected, with general decreases in the Connecticut River Valley and at high elevations in the northern part of the State and general increases in coastal and lowland areas of the State. In general, total winter snowfall is projected to decrease across the State, but there is a possibility of increasing snow in some locations, particularly during November, February, and March. The simulated future changes in recharge and snowfall vary by watershed across the State. This means that each area of the State could experience very different changes, depending on topography or other

  6. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  7. Multimodel Uncertainty Changes in Simulated River Flows Induced by Human Impact Parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Cui, Huijuan; Mu, Mengfei; Gerten Dieter; Gosling, Simon; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-01-01

    Human impacts increasingly affect the global hydrological cycle and indeed dominate hydrological changes in some regions. Hydrologists have sought to identify the human-impact-induced hydrological variations via parameterizing anthropogenic water uses in global hydrological models (GHMs). The consequently increased model complexity is likely to introduce additional uncertainty among GHMs. Here, using four GHMs, between-model uncertainties are quantified in terms of the ratio of signal to noise (SNR) for average river flow during 1971-2000 simulated in two experiments, with representation of human impacts (VARSOC) and without (NOSOC). It is the first quantitative investigation of between-model uncertainty resulted from the inclusion of human impact parameterizations. Results show that the between-model uncertainties in terms of SNRs in the VARSOC annual flow are larger (about 2 for global and varied magnitude for different basins) than those in the NOSOC, which are particularly significant in most areas of Asia and northern areas to the Mediterranean Sea. The SNR differences are mostly negative (-20 to 5, indicating higher uncertainty) for basin-averaged annual flow. The VARSOC high flow shows slightly lower uncertainties than NOSOC simulations, with SNR differences mostly ranging from -20 to 20. The uncertainty differences between the two experiments are significantly related to the fraction of irrigation areas of basins. The large additional uncertainties in VARSOC simulations introduced by the inclusion of parameterizations of human impacts raise the urgent need of GHMs development regarding a better understanding of human impacts. Differences in the parameterizations of irrigation, reservoir regulation and water withdrawals are discussed towards potential directions of improvements for future GHM development. We also discuss the advantages of statistical approaches to reduce the between-model uncertainties, and the importance of calibration of GHMs for not only

  8. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

  9. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  10. Efficient methodology for multibody simulations with discontinuous changes in system definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, Rudranarayan M.; Anderson, Kurt S.

    2007-01-01

    A new method is presented for accurately and efficiently simulating multi-scale multibody systems with discontinuous changes in system definitions as encountered in adaptive switching between models with different resolutions as well as models with different system topologies. An example of model resolution change is a transition of a system from a discrete particle model to a reduced order articulated multi-rigid body model. The discontinuous changes in system definition may be viewed as an instantaneous change (release or impulsive application of) the system constraints. The method uses a spatial impulse-momentum formulation in a divide and conquer scheme. The approach utilizes a hierarchic assembly-disassembly process by traversing the system topology in a binary tree map to solve for the jumps in the system generalized speeds and the constraint impulsive loads in linear and logarithmic cost in serial and parallel implementations, respectively. The method is applicable for systems in serial chain as well as kinematical loop topologies. The coupling between the unilateral and bilateral constraints is handled efficiently through the use of kinematic joint definitions. The equations of motion for the system are produced in a hierarchic sub-structured form. This has the advantage that changes in sub-structure definitions/models results in a change to the system equations only within the associated sub-structure. This allows for significant changes in model types and definitions without having to reformulate the equations for the whole system

  11. SNL-EFDC Simulations of Tidal Turbine-Related Changes to Hydrodynamics and Flushing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. D.; Johnson, E.; James, S. C.; Barco, J.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    The marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry in the United States faces challenges associated with siting, permitting, construction, and operation of pilot- and full-scale facilities that must be addressed to accelerate environmentally sound deployment of these renewable energy technologies. Little is known about the potential effects of MHK device operation in coastal areas, estuaries, or rivers, or of the cumulative impacts of these devices on aquatic ecosystems. This lack of knowledge affects the actions of regulatory agencies, the opinions of stakeholder groups, and the commitment of energy project developers and investors. Two particularly important factors that can be used as a precursor for MHK-driven environmental changes in estuaries are the effect of decreased tidal range and flushing. For example, tidal-range changes could affect wetland systems that are only wetted under the highest of tides. Significant changes in tidal range could completely change the character of the wetlands through long-term drying. Changes to flushing must also be understood, especially when municipal wastewater and other pollutant sources are discharged into a bay. When MHK operation alters flow rates, decreased flushing of an embayment could yield increased residence times, decreased nutrient and contaminant dispersion, and even the possibility of algal blooms. Small changes to the flow could manifest as noticeable changes to sediment transport and water quality. This work provides example assessments of changes to the physical environment (i.e. currents, tidal ranges, water age, and e-folding time) potentially imposed by the operation of MHK turbine arrays in marine estuary environments using the modeling platform SNL-EFDC. Comparing model results with and without an MHK array facilitates an understanding of how an array of turbines might alter the environment. By using models to simulate water circulation, commensurate changes in water quality, benthic habitat quality, and

  12. Identifying the potential of changes to blood sample logistics using simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Pelle; Jacobsen, Peter; Poulsen, Jørgen Hjelm

    2013-01-01

    Using simulation as an approach to display and improve internal logistics at hospitals has great potential. This study shows how a simulation model displaying the morning blood-taking round at a Danish public hospital can be developed and utilized with the aim of improving the logistics. The focus of the simulation was to evaluate changes made to the transportation of blood samples between wards and the laboratory. The average- (AWT) and maximum waiting time (MWT) from a blood sample was drawn at the ward until it was received at the laboratory, and the distribution of arrivals of blood samples in the laboratory were used as the evaluation criteria. Four different scenarios were tested and compared with the current approach: (1) Using AGVs (mobile robots), (2) using a pneumatic tube system, (3) using porters that are called upon, or (4) using porters that come to the wards every 45 minutes. Furthermore, each of the scenarios was tested in terms of what amount of resources would give the optimal result. The simulations showed a big improvement potential in implementing a new technology/mean for transporting the blood samples. The pneumatic tube system showed the biggest potential lowering the AWT and MWT with approx. 36% and 18%, respectively. Additionally, all of the scenarios had a more even distribution of arrivals except for porters coming to the wards every 45 min. As a consequence of the results obtained in the study, the hospital decided to implement a pneumatic tube system.

  13. Reimplementation of the Biome-BGC model to simulate successional change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Gower, Stith T; Ahl, Douglas E; Thornton, Peter E

    2005-04-01

    Biogeochemical process models are increasingly employed to simulate current and future forest dynamics, but most simulate only a single canopy type. This limitation means that mixed stands, canopy succession and understory dynamics cannot be modeled, severe handicaps in many forests. The goals of this study were to develop a version of Biome-BGC that supported multiple, interacting vegetation types, and to assess its performance and limitations by comparing modeled results to published data from a 150-year boreal black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) chronosequence in northern Manitoba, Canada. Model data structures and logic were modified to support an arbitrary number of interacting vegetation types; an explicit height calculation was necessary to prioritize radiation and precipitation interception. Two vegetation types, evergreen needle-leaf and deciduous broadleaf, were modeled based on site-specific meteorological and physiological data. The new version of Biome-BGC reliably simulated observed changes in leaf area, net primary production and carbon stocks, and should be useful for modeling the dynamics of mixed-species stands and ecological succession. We discuss the strengths and limitations of Biome-BGC for this application, and note areas in which further work is necessary for reliable simulation of boreal biogeochemical cycling at a landscape scale.

  14. Asthma management simulation for children: translating theory, methods, and strategies to effect behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shegog, Ross; Bartholomew, L Kay; Gold, Robert S; Pierrel, Elaine; Parcel, Guy S; Sockrider, Marianna M; Czyzewski, Danita I; Fernandez, Maria E; Berlin, Nina J; Abramson, Stuart

    2006-01-01

    Translating behavioral theories, models, and strategies to guide the development and structure of computer-based health applications is well recognized, although a continued challenge for program developers. A stepped approach to translate behavioral theory in the design of simulations to teach chronic disease management to children is described. This includes the translation steps to: 1) define target behaviors and their determinants, 2) identify theoretical methods to optimize behavioral change, and 3) choose educational strategies to effectively apply these methods and combine these into a cohesive computer-based simulation for health education. Asthma is used to exemplify a chronic health management problem and a computer-based asthma management simulation (Watch, Discover, Think and Act) that has been evaluated and shown to effect asthma self-management in children is used to exemplify the application of theory to practice. Impact and outcome evaluation studies have indicated the effectiveness of these steps in providing increased rigor and accountability, suggesting their utility for educators and developers seeking to apply simulations to enhance self-management behaviors in patients.

  15. Physiological pattern changes in response to a simulated competition in elite women artistic gymnasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isacco, Laurie; Ennequin, Gaël; Cassirame, Johan; Tordi, Nicolas

    2017-08-04

    The outstanding progress in women's artistic gymnastics in recent decades has led to increased technical and physiological demands. The aim of this study was to investigate i) the physiological demands of elite French gymnasts and ii) the impact of a competitive routine on physiological pattern changes. Fourteen French elite female gymnasts performed anthropometric measurements, physical fitness tests and a simulated four event competition. Heart rate (HR) was continuously recorded throughout the duration of the simulated competition. Blood lactate concentrations were assessed at rest, before the beginning and at 2, 4 and 10 min after completion of the routine on each apparatus. Isometric handgrip strength and anaerobic endurance and power were assessed during the simulated competition. The highest values of HR and blood lactate concentrations were reached during the floor and uneven bar exercises. Blood lactate concentrations and HR kinetics were apparatus dependent and values remained significantly increased at 10 min of recovery compared with resting data. Anaerobic endurance and power decreased significantly as the competition progressed (P <0.001). The present results show specifically cardiorespiratory and anaerobic apparatus- dependent responses throughout a simulated competition. Recovery approaches appear relevant to prevent and/or minimize fatigue and optimize performance in these athletes.

  16. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  17. Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsti Jylhä

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled “Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate” [1].

  18. Simulating Changes in Fires and Ecology of the 21st Century Eurasian Boreal Forests of Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksenia Brazhnik

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires release the greatest amount of carbon into the atmosphere compared to other forest disturbances. To understand how current and potential future fire regimes may affect the role of the Eurasian boreal forest in the global carbon cycle, we employed a new, spatially-explicit fire module DISTURB-F (DISTURBance-Fire in tandem with a spatially-explicit, individually-based gap dynamics model SIBBORK (SIBerian BOReal forest simulator calibrated to Krasnoyarsk Region. DISTURB-F simulates the effect of forest fire on the boreal ecosystem, namely the mortality of all or only the susceptible trees (loss of biomass, i.e., carbon within the forested landscape. The fire module captures some important feedbacks between climate, fire and vegetation structure. We investigated the potential climate-driven changes in the fire regime and vegetation in middle and south taiga in central Siberia, a region with extensive boreal forest and rapidly changing climate. The output from this coupled simulation can be used to estimate carbon losses from the ecosystem as a result of fires of different sizes and intensities over the course of secondary succession (decades to centuries. Furthermore, it may be used to assess the post-fire carbon storage capacity of potential future forests, the structure and composition of which may differ significantly from current Eurasian boreal forests due to regeneration under a different climate.

  19. EDDA 1.0: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. X.; Zhang, L. M.

    2015-03-01

    Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA (Erosion-Deposition Debris flow Analysis), is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of the debris flow mixture determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr-Coulomb equation is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, an adaptive time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties and a two-dimensional dam-break water flow. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

  20. EDDA: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H. X.; Zhang, L. M.

    2014-11-01

    Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA, is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of debris flow mixture is determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr-Coulomb equation, which is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, a variable time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional dam-break water flow and a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

  1. PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN CENTRAL/EASTERN EUROPE ON THE BASIS OF ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Miklos

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Projected precipitation changes in Central/Eastern Europe on the basis of ENSEMBLE simulations. For building appropriate local/national adaptation and mitigation strategies, detailed analysis of regional climate change is essential. In order to estimate the climate change for the 21st century, both global and regional models may be used. However, due to the coarse horizontal resolution, global climate models are not appropriate to describe regional scale climate processes. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs provide more realistic regional climate scenarios. A wide range of RCM experiments was accomplished in the frame of the ENSEMBLES project funded by the EU FP6 program, which was one of the largest climate change research project ever completed. All the RCM experiments used 25 km horizontal resolution and the A1B emission scenario, according to which CO2 concentration by 2100 is estimated to exceed 700 ppm, i.e., more than twice of the preindustrial level.The 25 km spatial resolution is fine enough to estimate the future hydrology-related conditions in different parts of Europe, from which we separated and analyzed simulated climate data sets for the Central/Eastern European region. Precipitation is an especially important climatological variable because of agricultural aspects and flood-related natural hazards, which may seriously affect all the countries in the evaluated region. On the basis of our results, different RCM simulations generally project drier summers and wetter winters (compared to the recent decades. The southern countries are more likely to suffer more intense warming, especially, in summer, and also, more intense drought events due to the stronger Mediterranean impact.

  2. Ab Initio Molecular-Dynamics Simulation of Neuromorphic Computing in Phase-Change Memory Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelton, Jonathan M; Loke, Desmond; Lee, Taehoon; Elliott, Stephen R

    2015-07-08

    We present an in silico study of the neuromorphic-computing behavior of the prototypical phase-change material, Ge2Sb2Te5, using ab initio molecular-dynamics simulations. Stepwise changes in structural order in response to temperature pulses of varying length and duration are observed, and a good reproduction of the spike-timing-dependent plasticity observed in nanoelectronic synapses is demonstrated. Short above-melting pulses lead to instantaneous loss of structural and chemical order, followed by delayed partial recovery upon structural relaxation. We also investigate the link between structural order and electrical and optical properties. These results pave the way toward a first-principles understanding of phase-change physics beyond binary switching.

  3. Contact size scaling of a W-contact phase-change memory cell based on numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Yiqun; Lin Xinnan; Jia Yuchao; Cui Xiaole; Zhang Xing; Song Zhitang

    2012-01-01

    In the design of phase-change memory (PCM), it is important to perform numerical simulations to predict the performances of different device structures. This work presents a numerical simulation using a coupled system including Poisson's equation, the current continuity equation, the thermal conductivity equation, and phase-change dynamics to simulate the thermal and electric characteristics of phase-change memory. This method discriminates the common numerical simulation of PCM cells, from which it applies Possion's equation and current continuity equations instead of the Laplace equation to depict the electric characteristics of PCM cells, which is more adoptable for the semiconductor characteristics of phase-change materials. The results show that the simulation agrees with the measurement, and the scalability of PCM is predicted.

  4. Simulation of Unique Pressure Changing Steps and Situations in Psa Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, Armin D.; Mehrotra, Amal; Knox, James C.; LeVan, Douglas; Ritter, James A.

    2007-01-01

    A more rigorous cyclic adsorption process simulator is being developed for use in the development and understanding of new and existing PSA processes. Unique features of this new version of the simulator that Ritter and co-workers have been developing for the past decade or so include: multiple absorbent layers in each bed, pressure drop in the column, valves for entering and exiting flows and predicting real-time pressurization and depressurization rates, ability to account for choked flow conditions, ability to pressurize and depressurize simultaneously from both ends of the columns, ability to equalize between multiple pairs of columns, ability to equalize simultaneously from both ends of pairs of columns, and ability to handle very large pressure ratios and hence velocities associated with deep vacuum systems. These changes to the simulator now provide for unique opportunities to study the effects of novel pressure changing steps and extreme process conditions on the performance of virtually any commercial or developmental PSA process. This presentation will provide an overview of the cyclic adsorption process simulator equations and algorithms used in the new adaptation. It will focus primarily on the novel pressure changing steps and their effects on the performance of a PSA system that epitomizes the extremes of PSA process design and operation. This PSA process is a sorbent-based atmosphere revitalization (SBAR) system that NASA is developing for new manned exploration vehicles. This SBAR system consists of a 2-bed 3-step 3-layer system that operates between atmospheric pressure and the vacuum of space, evacuates from both ends of the column simultaneously, experiences choked flow conditions during pressure changing steps, and experiences a continuously changing feed composition, as it removes metabolic CO2 and H20 from a closed and fixed volume, i.e., the spacecraft cabin. Important process performance indicators of this SBAR system are size, and the

  5. Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

    2015-08-01

    The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

  6. Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, X.J.; Zhao, Z.C.; Ding, Y.H.; Huang, R.H.; Giorgi, F. [National Climate Centre, Beijing (China)

    2001-07-01

    Impacts of greenhouse effects (2 x CO{sub 2}) upon climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model over China (RegCM / China) have been investigated. The model was based on RegCM2 and was nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM model). Results of the control run (1 x CO{sub 2}) indicated that simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in China by RegCM are much better than that by the global coupled model because of a higher resolution. Results of sensitive experiment by RegCM with 2 x CO{sub 2} showed that the surface air temperature over China might increase remarkably due to greenhouse effect, especially in winter season and in North China. Precipitation might also increase in most parts of China due to the CO{sub 2} doubling.

  7. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

    2006-01-01

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

  8. Mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM in coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.

    2006-12-01

    On a regional perspective the database of proxy information for South America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shows large and regionally extensive changes of the mean climate and vegetation types over the Amazon basin. In some instances these changes were associated with decrease in the mean precipitation amount (and most probably in moist deep convection) over the Amazonian and South East Brazil monsoon regions and wetter mean conditions in present day drought-prone regions such as Northeast of Brazil (Nordeste). These changes have been interpreted as local responses to shift in the mean position and intensity of the Atlantic ITCZ due to glacial extratropical forcings or to changes in the South American Monsoons. However there are still two issues is the path to further understand the mechanism of climate change over South America during the LGM. The first is incomplete knowledge in both the modeling and observational communities of how the moist deep convection over the Amazonian region respond to glacial boundary condition and how this changes might interact with the meridional shift of rainfall over Nordeste and Atlantic Ocean. The second is our understanding of how ocean-atmosphere changes that do occur in the tropical Pacific region influence the climate of the remainder of the planet and on a regional way over South America. Using PMIP-2 coupled Ocean-Atmosphere simulations for LGM and comparison to paleodata we show that hydrological cycle changes over the Amazon basin might be independent of their Atlantic Ocean counterpart, while teleconnections with Pacific Ocean might have played a significant role in the observed changes over tropical South America.

  9. Cloud radiative effects and changes simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Sun-Hee; Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In

    2017-07-01

    Using 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models, this study examines the veracity in the simulation of cloud amount and their radiative effects (CREs) in the historical run driven by observed external radiative forcing for 1850-2005, and their future changes in the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario runs for 2006-2100. Validation metrics for the historical run are designed to examine the accuracy in the representation of spatial patterns for climatological mean, and annual and interannual variations of clouds and CREs. The models show large spread in the simulation of cloud amounts, specifically in the low cloud amount. The observed relationship between cloud amount and the controlling large-scale environment are also reproduced diversely by various models. Based on the validation metrics, four models—ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, HadGEM2-CC, and HadGEM2-ES—are selected as best models, and the average of the four models performs more skillfully than the multimodel ensemble average. All models project global-mean SST warming at the increase of the greenhouse gases, but the magnitude varies across the simulations between 1 and 2 K, which is largely attributable to the difference in the change of cloud amount and distribution. The models that simulate more SST warming show a greater increase in the net CRE due to reduced low cloud and increased incoming shortwave radiation, particularly over the regions of marine boundary layer in the subtropics. Selected best-performing models project a significant reduction in global-mean cloud amount of about -0.99% K-1 and net radiative warming of 0.46 W m-2 K-1, suggesting a role of positive feedback to global warming.

  10. Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiran Han

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover (LULC models are essential for analyzing LULC change and predicting land use requirements and are valuable for guiding reasonable land use planning and management. However, each LULC model has its own advantages and constraints. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of LULC change and simulate future land use demand by combining a CLUE-S model with a Markov model to deal with some shortcomings of existing LULC models. Using Beijing as a case study, we describe the related driving factors from land-adaptive variables, regional spatial variables and socio-economic variables and then simulate future land use scenarios from 2010 to 2020, which include a development scenario (natural development and rapid development and protection scenarios (ecological and cultivated land protection. The results indicate good consistency between predicted results and actual land use situations according to a Kappa statistic. The conversion of cultivated land to urban built-up land will form the primary features of LULC change in the future. The prediction for land use demand shows the differences under different scenarios. At higher elevations, the geographical environment limits the expansion of urban built-up land, but the conversion of cultivated land to built-up land in mountainous areas will be more prevalent by 2020; Beijing, however, still faces the most pressure in terms of ecological and cultivated land protection.

  11. Load-adaptive bone remodeling simulations reveal osteoporotic microstructural and mechanical changes in whole human vertebrae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badilatti, Sandro D; Christen, Patrik; Parkinson, Ian; Müller, Ralph

    2016-12-08

    Osteoporosis is a major medical burden and its impact is expected to increase in our aging society. It is associated with low bone density and microstructural deterioration. Treatments are available, but the critical factor is to define individuals at risk from osteoporotic fractures. Computational simulations investigating not only changes in net bone tissue volume, but also changes in its microstructure where osteoporotic deterioration occur might help to better predict the risk of fractures. In this study, bone remodeling simulations with a mechanical feedback loop were used to predict microstructural changes due to osteoporosis and their impact on bone fragility from 50 to 80 years of age. Starting from homeostatic bone remodeling of a group of seven, mixed sex whole vertebrae, five mechanostat models mimicking different biological alterations associated with osteoporosis were developed, leading to imbalanced bone formation and resorption with a total net loss of bone tissue. A model with reduced bone formation rate and cell sensitivity led to the best match of morphometric indices compared to literature data and was chosen to predict postmenopausal osteoporotic bone loss in the whole group. Thirty years of osteoporotic bone loss were predicted with changes in morphometric indices in agreement with experimental measurements, and only showing major deviations in trabecular number and trabecular separation. In particular, although being optimized to match to the morphometric indices alone, the predicted bone loss revealed realistic changes on the organ level and on biomechanical competence. While the osteoporotic bone was able to maintain the mechanical stability to a great extent, higher fragility towards error loads was found for the osteoporotic bones. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, R.J.

    2004-08-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling tools for examining the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period (1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations and reanalysis data products. The differences between near-surface wind speed and direction calculated for the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) based on boundary conditions derived from two Global Climate Models (GCM): HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 are comparable to changes in the climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100) for two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). These differences are also of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The RCAO simulations for the 2071-2100 period indicate evidence for a small increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during the winter season (December February), but the uncertainty of these prognoses remains high. (au)

  13. Simulation of land use change and effect on potential deforestation using Markov Chain - Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujiono, Indra, T. L.; Harmantyo, D.; Rukmana, I. P.; Nadia, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to simulate land use change in 1996-2016 and its prediction in 2035 as well as its potential to deforestation. Both of these purposes were obtained through modeling analysis using Markov Chain Cellular Automata. This modeling method was considered important for understanding the causes and impacts. Based on the analysis, the land use change between 1996 to 2007 has caused forest loss (the region and non-region) covering an area of 62,012 ha. While in the period of 2007 to 2016, the change has lead to the east side of the slope grade of 0-15 percent and an altitude between 500-1000 meters above sea level. In this period, plantation area has increased by 50,822 ha, while the forest area has reduced from 80,038 ha. In a period of 20 years, North Bengkulu Regency has lost the forest area of 80,038 ha. The amount of intervention against forest suggested the potential for deforestation in this area. Simulation of land use change in 2035 did not indicate significant deforestation due to the limited land on physical factors such as slope and elevation. However, it should be noted that, in 2035, the area of conservation forest was reduced by 16,793 ha (29 %), while the areas of protected and production forest were reduced by 4,933 ha (19 %) and 2,114 ha (3 %), respectively. Land use change is a serious threat of deforestation, especially in forest areas in North Bengkulu Regency, where any decline in forest area means the addition of plantation area.

  14. The sensitivity of dimethyl sulfide production to simulated climate change in the Eastern Antarctic Southern Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabric, Albert J.; Cropp, Roger; Marchant, Harvey

    2003-01-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a radiatively active trace gas produced by enzymatic cleavage of its precursor compound, dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released by marine phytoplankton in the upper ocean. Once ventilated to the atmosphere, DMS is oxidised to form non-sea-salt sulfate and methane sulfonate (MSA) aerosols, which are a major source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in remote marine air and may thus play a role in climate regulation. Here we simulate the change in DMS flux in the Eastern Antarctic ocean from 1960-2086, corresponding to equivalent CO 2 tripling relative to pre-industrial levels. Calibration to contemporary climate conditions was carried out using a genetic algorithm to fit the model to surface chlorophyll from the 4-yr SeaWiFs satellite archive and surface DMS from an existing global database. Following the methodology used previously in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, we then simulated DMS emissions under enhanced greenhouse conditions by forcing the DMS model with output from a coupled atmospheric-ocean general circulation model (GCM). The GCM was run in transient mode under the IPCC/IS92a radiative forcing scenario. By 2086, the change simulated in annual integrated DMS flux is around 20% in ice-free waters, with a greater increase of 45% in the seasonal ice zone (SIZ). Interestingly, the large increase in flux in the SIZ is not due to higher in situ production but mainly because of a loss of ice cover during summer-autumn and an increase in sea-to-air ventilation of DMS. These proportional changes in areal mean flux (25%) are much higher than previously estimated for the Subantarctic Southern Ocean (5%), and point to the possibility of a significant DMS-climate feedback at high Southern latitudes. Due to the nexus between ice cover and food-web structure, the potential for ecological community shifts under enhanced greenhouse conditions is high, and the implications for DMS production are discussed

  15. Molecular simulation of excess isotherm and excess enthalpy change in gas-phase adsorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, D D; Do, H D; Nicholson, D

    2009-01-29

    We present a new approach to calculating excess isotherm and differential enthalpy of adsorption on surfaces or in confined spaces by the Monte Carlo molecular simulation method. The approach is very general and, most importantly, is unambiguous in its application to any configuration of solid structure (crystalline, graphite layer or disordered porous glass), to any type of fluid (simple or complex molecule), and to any operating conditions (subcritical or supercritical). The behavior of the adsorbed phase is studied using the partial molar energy of the simulation box. However, to characterize adsorption for comparison with experimental data, the isotherm is best described by the excess amount, and the enthalpy of adsorption is defined as the change in the total enthalpy of the simulation box with the change in the excess amount, keeping the total number (gas + adsorbed phases) constant. The excess quantities (capacity and energy) require a choice of a reference gaseous phase, which is defined as the adsorptive gas phase occupying the accessible volume and having a density equal to the bulk gas density. The accessible volume is defined as the mean volume space accessible to the center of mass of the adsorbate under consideration. With this choice, the excess isotherm passes through a maximum but always remains positive. This is in stark contrast to the literature where helium void volume is used (which is always greater than the accessible volume) and the resulting excess can be negative. Our definition of enthalpy change is equivalent to the difference between the partial molar enthalpy of the gas phase and the partial molar enthalpy of the adsorbed phase. There is no need to assume ideal gas or negligible molar volume of the adsorbed phase as is traditionally done in the literature. We illustrate this new approach with adsorption of argon, nitrogen, and carbon dioxide under subcritical and supercritical conditions.

  16. A simulation of orientation dependent, global changes in camera sensitivity in ECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieszk, J.A.; Hawman, E.G.; Malmin, R.E.

    1984-01-01

    ECT promises the abilities to: 1) observe radioisotope distributions in a patient without the summation of overlying activity to reduce contrast, and 2) measure quantitatively these distributions to further and more accurately assess organ function. Ideally, camera-based ECT systems should have a performance that is independent of camera orientation or gantry angle. This study is concerned with ECT quantitation errors that can arise from angle-dependent variations of camera sensitivity. Using simulated phantoms representative of heart and liver sections, the effects of sensitivity changes on reconstructed images were assessed both visually and quantitatively based on ROI sums. The sinogram for each test image was simulated with 128 linear digitization and 180 angular views. The global orientation-dependent sensitivity was modelled by applying an angular sensitivity dependence to the sinograms of the test images. Four sensitivity variations were studied. Amplitudes of 0% (as a reference), 5%, 10%, and 25% with a cosθ dependence were studied as well as a cos2θ dependence with a 5% amplitude. Simulations were done with and without Poisson noise to: 1) determine trends in the quantitative effects as a function of the magnitude of the variation, and 2) to see how these effects are manifested in studies having statistics comparable to clinical cases. For the most realistic sensitivity variation (cosθ, 5% ampl.), the ROIs chosen in the present work indicated changes of <0.5% in the noiseless case and <5% for the case with Poisson noise. The effects of statistics appear to dominate any effects due to global, sinusoidal, orientation-dependent sensitivity changes in the cases studied

  17. Influence of changes in initial conditions for the simulation of dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotyrba, Martin [Department of Informatics and Computers, University of Ostrava, 30 dubna 22, Ostrava (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a paradigm popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions field widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In this paperinfluence of changes in initial conditions will be presented for the simulation of Lorenz system.

  18. Molecular dynamics simulations of disordered materials from network glasses to phase-change memory alloys

    CERN Document Server

    Massobrio, Carlo; Bernasconi, Marco; Salmon, Philip S

    2015-01-01

    This book is a unique reference work in the area of atomic-scale simulation of glasses. For the first time, a highly selected panel of about 20 researchers provides, in a single book, their views, methodologies and applications on the use of molecular dynamics as a tool to describe glassy materials. The book covers a wide range of systems covering ""traditional"" network glasses, such as chalcogenides and oxides, as well as glasses for applications in the area of phase change materials. The novelty of this work is the interplay between molecular dynamics methods (both at the classical and firs

  19. Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin; Cuo, Lan

    2015-05-15

    Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The high resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P-E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P-E changes. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.

  20. Numerical simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality effects of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Han; Shen, Yongming; Su, Meirong; Yu, Chunxue

    2018-02-01

    This study uses the HD and Ecolab modules of MIKE to simulate the hydrodynamic and water quality and predict the influence of shoreline changes in Bohai Bay, China. The study shows that shoreline changes weaken the residual current and generate a counter-clockwise circulation south of Huanghua Port, thereby resulting in weak water exchange capacity and low pollutant-diffusing capacity. Shoreline changes reduce the area of Bohai Bay, resulting in a smaller tidal prism and further weakening the water exchange capacity. This situation is not conducive to the diffusion of pollutants, and therefore may lead to increased water pollution in the bay. Shoreline changes hinder the spread of runoff, weaken the dilution effect of the river on seawater, and block the spread of coastal residual current, thereby resulting in increased salinity near the reclamation area. Shoreline changes lead to an increase in PO4-P concentration and decrease in DIN concentration. The value of N/P near the project decreases, thereby weakening the phosphorus-limited effect.

  1. Responses of the ocean carbon cycle to climate change: Results from an earth system climate model simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shuang-Jing; CAO Long; LI Na

    2014-01-01

    Based on simulations using the University of Victoria’s Earth System Climate Model, we analyzed the responses of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change from 1800 to 2500 following the RCP 8.5 scenario and its extension. Compared to simulations without climate change, the simulation with a climate sensitivity of 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by4.5 Sv, and the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 decreases by 0.8 Pg C. Climate change is also found to have a large effect on the North Atlantic’s ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO2. Between the years 1800 and 2500, compared with the simulation with no climate change, the simulation with climate change causes a reduction in the total anthropogenic CO2 column inventory over the entire ocean and in North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity variations from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a greater effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

  2. Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce A. McCarl; Darius M. Adams; Ralph J. Alig; Diana Burton; Chi-Chung. Chen

    2000-01-01

    A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climate change are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic...

  3. Simulating the Effects of Cross-Generational Cultural Transmission on Language Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan

    Language evolves in a socio-cultural environment. Apart from biological evolution and individual learning, cultural transmission also casts important influence on many aspects of language evolution. In this paper, based on the lexicon-syntax coevolution model, we extend the acquisition framework in our previous work to examine the roles of three forms of cultural transmission spanning the offspring, parent, and grandparent generations in language change. These transmissions are: those between the parent and offspring generations (PO), those within the offspring generation (OO), and those between the grandparent and offspring generations (GO). The simulation results of the considered model and relevant analyses illustrate not only the necessity of PO and OO transmissions for language change, thus echoing our previous findings, but also the importance of GO transmission, a form of cross-generational cultural transmission, on preserving the mutual understandability of the communal language across generations of individuals.

  4. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

  5. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-05-01

    The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

  6. Simulating spatial patterns of land-use change in Rondonia, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Southworth, F.; O'Neill, R.V.; Rosen, A.

    1992-01-01

    Large scale deforestation in the Brazilian state of Rondonia has resulted from massive colonization and has caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 , soil degradation, loss of extractive resources, and disruption of indigenous populations. A simulation model has been developed that integrates colonization, socioeconomic, and ecological submodels to estimate spatial patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration policies, land tenure practices, and road development scenarios. It is used to model the socioeconomic causes and ecological impacts of rapid deforestation in Rondonia. The simulation can be used to identify scenarios that might optimize economic and agricultural sustainability or reduce emigration. Spatial analysis of the simulation projections shows that very different patterns of deforestation can result depending on whether soil suitability, distance to market or lot size is the prime factor affecting a colonist's choice of a lot. Projections of the amount and pattern of deforestation under specific scenarios of land-use choice and management can be used to explore the socioeconomic and ecological implications of land-use change

  7. Changes in Passive Tension of the Hamstring Muscles During a Simulated Soccer Match.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Paul W; Lovell, Ric; Siegler, Jason C

    2016-07-01

    Passive muscle tension is increased after damaging eccentric exercise. Hamstring-strain injury is associated with damaging eccentric muscle actions, but no research has examined changes in hamstring passive muscle tension throughout a simulated sport activity. The authors measured hamstring passive tension throughout a 90-min simulated soccer match (SAFT90), including the warm-up period and every 15 min throughout the 90-min simulation. Passive hamstring tension of 15 amateur male soccer players was measured using the instrumented straight-leg-raise test. Absolute torque (Nm) and slope (Nm/°) of the recorded torque-angular position curve were used for data analysis, in addition to total leg range of motion (ROM). Players performed a 15-min prematch warm-up, then performed the SAFT90 including a 15-min halftime rest period. Reductions in passive stiffness of 20-50° of passive hip flexion of 22.1-29.2% (P hamstring ROM (P = .0009). The findings of this study imply that hamstring passive tension is reduced after an active warm-up that includes dynamic stretching but does not increase in a pattern suggestive of eccentric induced muscle damage during soccer-specific intermittent exercise. Hamstring ROM and passive tension increases are best explained by improved stretch tolerance.

  8. Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, M.R; Singels, A.; Ruane, A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data

  9. Future changes in Asian summer monsoon precipitation extremes as inferred from 20-km AGCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Yuk Sing; Tam, Chi-Yung; Lau, Ngar-Cheung

    2018-04-01

    This study examines the impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes in the Asian monsoon region during boreal summer, based on simulations from the 20-km Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model. The model can capture the summertime monsoon rainfall, with characteristics similar to those from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation. By comparing the 2075-2099 with the present-day climate simulations, there is a robust increase of the mean rainfall in many locations due to a warmer climate. Over southeastern China, the Baiu rainband, Bay of Bengal and central India, extreme precipitation rates are also enhanced in the future, which can be inferred from increases of the 95th percentile of daily precipitation, the maximum accumulated precipitation in 5 consecutive days, the simple daily precipitation intensity index, and the scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution. In these regions, with the exception of the Baiu rainband, most of these metrics give a fractional change of extreme rainfall per degree increase of the lower-tropospheric temperature of 5 to 8.5% K-1, roughly consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, over the Baiu area extreme precipitation change scales as 3.5% K-1 only. We have also stratified the rainfall data into those associated with tropical cyclones (TC) and those with other weather systems. The AGCM gives an increase of the accumulated TC rainfall over southeastern China, and a decrease in southern Japan in the future climate. The latter can be attributed to suppressed TC occurrence in southern Japan, whereas increased accumulated rainfall over southeastern China is due to more intense TC rain rate under global warming. Overall, non-TC weather systems are the main contributor to enhanced precipitation extremes in various locations. In the future, TC activities over southeastern China tend to further

  10. Computer simulation with TRNSYS for a mobile refrigeration system incorporating a phase change thermal storage unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Ming; Saman, Wasim; Bruno, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A mobile refrigeration system incorporating phase change thermal storage was simulated using TRNSYS. • A TRNSYS component of a phase change thermal storage unit was created and linked to other components from TRNSYS library. • The temperature in the refrigerated space can be predicted using this TRNSYS model under various conditions. • A mobile refrigeration system incorporating PCM and an off-peak electric driven refrigeration unit is feasible. • The phase change material with the lowest melting temperature should be selected. - Abstract: This paper presents a new TRNSYS model of a refrigeration system incorporating phase change material (PCM) for mobile transport. The PCTSU is charged by an off-vehicle refrigeration unit and the PCM provides cooling when discharging and the cooling released is utilized to cool down the refrigerated space. The advantage of this refrigeration system compared to a conventional system is that it consumes less energy and produces significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions. A refrigeration system for a typical refrigerated van is modelled and simulations are performed with climatic data from four different locations. The main components of the TRNSYS model are Type 88 (cooling load estimation) and Type 300 (new PCTSU component), accompanied by other additional components. The results show that in order to maintain the temperature of the products at −18 °C for 10 h, a total of 250 kg and 390 kg of PCM are required for no door opening and 20 door openings during the transportation, respectively. In addition, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effects of location, size of the refrigerated space, number of door openings and melting temperature of the PCM on the thermal performance

  11. Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

    2008-07-01

    Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

  12. Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S model under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

  13. Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

    2017-05-15

    Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Simulation and Modelling of Climate Change Effects on River Awara Flow Discharge using WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oyati E.N.

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling of stream flow and discharge of river Awara under changed climate conditions using CLIMGEN for stochastic weather generation and WEAP model was used to simulate reserviour storage volume, water demand and river discharges at high spatial resolution (0.5°×0.5°, total 66,420 grid cells. Results of CLM-Based flow measurement shows a linear regression with R 2 = 0.99 for IFPRI-MNP- IGSM_WRS calibration. Sensitivity simulation of ambient long-term shows an increase in temperature with 0.5 o c thus the results of the studies generally show that annual runoff and river discharges could largely decrease. The projection of water demand 150 million m 3 by 2020 against the reservoir storage volume 60 million m 3 and decrease in rainfall depth by -5.7 mm. The output of the combined models used in this study is veritable to create robust water management system under different climate change scenarios.

  15. Improving the adaptability of simulated evolutionary swarm robots in dynamically changing environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Yao

    Full Text Available One of the important challenges in the field of evolutionary robotics is the development of systems that can adapt to a changing environment. However, the ability to adapt to unknown and fluctuating environments is not straightforward. Here, we explore the adaptive potential of simulated swarm robots that contain a genomic encoding of a bio-inspired gene regulatory network (GRN. An artificial genome is combined with a flexible agent-based system, representing the activated part of the regulatory network that transduces environmental cues into phenotypic behaviour. Using an artificial life simulation framework that mimics a dynamically changing environment, we show that separating the static from the conditionally active part of the network contributes to a better adaptive behaviour. Furthermore, in contrast with most hitherto developed ANN-based systems that need to re-optimize their complete controller network from scratch each time they are subjected to novel conditions, our system uses its genome to store GRNs whose performance was optimized under a particular environmental condition for a sufficiently long time. When subjected to a new environment, the previous condition-specific GRN might become inactivated, but remains present. This ability to store 'good behaviour' and to disconnect it from the novel rewiring that is essential under a new condition allows faster re-adaptation if any of the previously observed environmental conditions is reencountered. As we show here, applying these evolutionary-based principles leads to accelerated and improved adaptive evolution in a non-stable environment.

  16. Improving the Adaptability of Simulated Evolutionary Swarm Robots in Dynamically Changing Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yao; Marchal, Kathleen; Van de Peer, Yves

    2014-01-01

    One of the important challenges in the field of evolutionary robotics is the development of systems that can adapt to a changing environment. However, the ability to adapt to unknown and fluctuating environments is not straightforward. Here, we explore the adaptive potential of simulated swarm robots that contain a genomic encoding of a bio-inspired gene regulatory network (GRN). An artificial genome is combined with a flexible agent-based system, representing the activated part of the regulatory network that transduces environmental cues into phenotypic behaviour. Using an artificial life simulation framework that mimics a dynamically changing environment, we show that separating the static from the conditionally active part of the network contributes to a better adaptive behaviour. Furthermore, in contrast with most hitherto developed ANN-based systems that need to re-optimize their complete controller network from scratch each time they are subjected to novel conditions, our system uses its genome to store GRNs whose performance was optimized under a particular environmental condition for a sufficiently long time. When subjected to a new environment, the previous condition-specific GRN might become inactivated, but remains present. This ability to store ‘good behaviour’ and to disconnect it from the novel rewiring that is essential under a new condition allows faster re-adaptation if any of the previously observed environmental conditions is reencountered. As we show here, applying these evolutionary-based principles leads to accelerated and improved adaptive evolution in a non-stable environment. PMID:24599485

  17. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU WenBin; YANG Peng; MENG ChaoYing; SHIBASAKI Ryosuke; ZHOU QingBo; TANG HuaJun; SHI Yun

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions,while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally,the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline.The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  18. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

  19. Simulation Analysis as a Way to Assess the Performance of Important Unit Root and Change in Persistence Tests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernández, Raúl O.; Vera-Valdés, J. Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    This chapter shows a way to, using simulation analysis, assess the performance of some of the most popular unit root and change in persistence tests. The authors do this by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The findings suggest that these tests show a lower than expected performance when dealing ...

  20. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pugh, T A M; Arneth, A; Bayer, A D; Olin, S; Lindeskog, M; Schurgers, G; Ahlström, A; Klein Goldewijk, K

    2015-01-01

    It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (S T ) was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO 2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L ; S T  = S L  − E LUC ). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present-day S T , or an underestimation of S L , of up to 1.0 Pg C a −1 . Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but were found to have little influence on E LUC . (letter)

  1. Simulation of TanDEM-X interferograms for urban change detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welte, Amelie; Hammer, Horst; Thiele, Antje; Hinz, Stefan

    2017-10-01

    Damage detection after natural disasters is one of the remote sensing tasks in which Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors play an important role. Since SAR is an active sensor, it can record images at all times of day and in all weather conditions, making it ideally suited for this task. While with the newer generation of SAR satellites such as TerraSAR-X or COSMOSkyMed amplitude change detection has become possible even for urban areas, interferometric phase change detection has not been published widely. This is mainly because of the long revisit times of common SAR sensors leading to temporal decorrelation. This situation has changed dramatically with the advent of the TanDEM-X constellation, which can create single-pass interferograms from space at very high resolutions, avoiding temporal decorrelation almost completely. In this paper the basic structures that are present for any building in InSAR phases, i.e. layover, shadow, and roof areas, are examined. Approaches for their extraction from TanDEM-X interferograms are developed using simulated SAR interferograms. The extracted features of the building signature will in the future be used for urban change detection in real TanDEM-X High Resolution Spotlight interferograms.

  2. Sensitivity of WRF-simulated planetary boundary layer height to land cover and soil changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Ács

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Planetary boundary layer (PBL height sensitivity to both so-called single and accumulated land cover and soil changes is investigated in shallow convection under cloud-free conditions to compare the effects. Single land cover type and soil changes are carried out to be able to unequivocally separate the cause and effect relationships. The Yonsei University scheme in the framework of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF mesoscale modeling system is used as a research tool. The area investigated lies in the Carpathian Basin, where anticyclonic weather type influence dominated on the five summer days chosen for simulations. Observation-based methods applied for validating diurnal PBL height courses manifest great deviations reaching 500–1300 m. The obtained deviations are somewhat smaller around midday and greater at night. They can originate either from the differences in the measuring principles or from the differences in the atmospheric profiles used. Concerning sensitivity analyses, we showed that PBL height differences caused by soil change are comparable with the PBL height differences caused by land cover change. The differences are much greater in the single than in the accumulated tests. Space averaged diurnal course difference around midday reaching a few tens of meters can be presumably treated as strongly significant. PBL height differences obtained in the sensitivity analyses are, at least in our case, smaller than those obtained by applying different observation based methods. The results may be utilized in PBL height diurnal course analyses.

  3. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  4. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Aloysius

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016–2035 and mid-century (2046–2065. We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [−9 %; 20 %] (mean – min and max – across model ensembles over the next two decades and by 7 % [−12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5 are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  5. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

    2017-08-01

    Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  6. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  7. Stochastic simulation of climate change impacts on ice road operations, MacKenzie River, Northwest Territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko; Lonergan, S.

    1990-01-01

    Winter roads constitute an important part of the transportation network in the MacKenzie Delta, the Yellowknife area, and between the MacKenzie Highway and the Canol Road. Climatic changes in the MacKenzie Valley will alter the probabilities of ice cover thickness and duration, impacting on the periods when ice road river crossings are viable. Stochastic models were developed to generate air temperature and precipitation data to analyze climate impacts on when ice road crossing of the MacKenzie River at Norman Wells is feasible. The data were employed to simulate river ice growth and decay. Several general circulation models were employed to determine the impacts of climatic change on the ice regime. For precipitation simulation, the occurrence of wet or dry days was determined from Markov chain transition probabilities. In general, the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) model predicted the largest increase in monthly precipitation and the Oregon State University (OSU) model predicted the least changes. The various scenarios indicated that the duration for vehicular traffic over ice will be significantly reduced, compared to present day Norman Wells ice crossing operation. For 20 tonne vehicles, the current duration for safe crossing averages 169±14.6 days per year, while for the OSU scenario it will be reduced to 148±14.7 days, is further reduced to 127±24.9 days for the GISS scenario, and drops to 122±21.7 days for the GFDL (General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) scenario. 5 refs., 1 fig

  8. Simulation of Groundwater-Level and Salinity Changes in the Eastern Shore, Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanford, Ward E.; Pope, Jason P.; Nelms, David L.

    2009-01-01

    Groundwater-level and salinity changes have been simulated with a groundwater model developed and calibrated for the Eastern Shore of Virginia. The Eastern Shore is the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula that is occupied by Accomack and Northampton Counties in Virginia. Groundwater is the sole source of freshwater to the Eastern Shore, and demands for water have been increasing from domestic, industrial, agricultural, and public-supply sectors of the economy. Thus, it is important that the groundwater supply be protected from overextraction and seawater intrusion. The best way for water managers to use all of the information available is usually to compile this information into a numerical model that can simulate the response of the system to current and future stresses. A detailed description of the geology, hydrogeology, and historical groundwater extractions was compiled and entered into the numerical model. The hydrogeologic framework is composed of a surficial aquifer under unconfined conditions, a set of three aquifers and associated overlying confining units under confined conditions (the upper, middle, and lower Yorktown-Eastover Formation), and an underlying confining unit (the St. Marys Formation). An estimate of the location and depths of two major paleochannels was also included in the framework of the model. Total withdrawals from industrial, commercial, public-supply, and some agricultural wells were compiled from the period 1900 through 2003. Reported pumpage from these sources increased dramatically during the 1960s and 70s, up to currently about 4 million gallons per day. Domestic withdrawals were estimated on the basis of population census districts and were assigned spatially to the model on the assumption that domestic users are located close to roads. A numerical model was created using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) code SEAWAT to simulate both water levels and concentrations of chloride (representing salinity). The model was

  9. A simulated avalanche search and rescue mission induces temporary physiological and behavioural changes in military dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diverio, Silvana; Barbato, Olimpia; Cavallina, Roberta; Guelfi, Gabriella; Iaboni, Martina; Zasso, Renato; Di Mari, Walter; Santoro, Michele Matteo; Knowles, Toby G

    2016-09-01

    Saving human lives is of paramount importance in avalanche rescue missions. Avalanche military dogs represent an invaluable resource in these operations. However, their performance can be influenced by several environmental, social and transport challenges. If too severe, these are likely to activate a range of responses to stress, which might put at risk the dogs' welfare. The aim of this study was to assess the physiological and behavioural responses of a group of military dogs to a Simulated Avalanche Search and Rescue mission (SASR). Seventeen avalanche dogs from the Italian Military Force Guardia di Finanza (SAGF dogs) were monitored during a simulated search for a buried operator in an artificial avalanche area (SASR). Heart rate (HR), body temperature (RBT) and blood samples were collected at rest the day before the trial (T0), immediately after helicopter transport at the onset of the SASR (T1), after the discovery of the buried operator (T2) and 2h later (T3). Heart rate (HR), rectal body temperature (RBT), cortisol, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were measured. During the search mission the behaviour of each SAGF dog was measured by focal animal sampling and qualitatively assessed by its handler and two observers. Inter-rater agreement was evaluated. Snow and environmental variables were also measured. All dogs successfully completed their search for the buried, simulated victim within 10min. The SASR was shown to exert significant increases on RBT, NEFA and cortisol (Pdog's search mission ability was found only for motivation, signalling behaviour, signs of stress and possessive reward playing. More time signalling was related to shorter search time. In conclusion, despite extreme environmental and training conditions only temporary physiological and behavioural changes were recorded in the avalanche dogs. Their excellent performance in successful simulated SASR

  10. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

    2011-07-01

    Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change

  11. Postural stability changes in the elderly with cataract simulation and refractive blur.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Vijay; Buckley, John G; Scally, Andy; Elliott, David B

    2003-11-01

    To determine the influence of cataractous and refractive blur on postural stability and limb-load asymmetry (LLA) and to establish how postural stability changes with the spatial frequency and contrast of the visual stimulus. Thirteen elderly subjects (mean age, 70.76 +/- 4.14 [SD] years) with no history of falls and normal vision were recruited. Postural stability was determined as the root mean square [RMS] of the center of pressure (COP) signal in the anterior-posterior (A-P) and medial-lateral directions and LLA was determined as the ratio of the average body weight placed on the more-loaded limb to the less-loaded limb, recorded during a 30-second period. Data were collected under normal standing conditions and with somatosensory system input disrupted. Measurements were repeated with four visual targets with high (8 cyc/deg) or low (2 cyc/deg) spatial frequency and high (Weber contrast, approximately 95%) or low (Weber contrast, approximately 25%) contrast. Postural stability was measured under conditions of binocular refractive blur of 0, 1, 2, 4, and 8 D and with cataract simulation. The data were analyzed in a population-averaged linear model. The cataract simulation caused significant increases in postural instability equivalent to that caused by 8-D blur conditions, and its effect was greater when the input from the somatosensory system was disrupted. High spatial frequency targets increased postural instability. Refractive blur, cataract simulation, or eye closure had no effect on LLA. Findings indicate that cataractous and refractive blur increase postural instability, and show why the elderly, many of whom have poor vision along with musculoskeletal and central nervous system degeneration, are at greater risk of falling. Findings also highlight that changes in contrast sensitivity rather than resolution changes are responsible for increasing postural instability. Providing low spatial frequency information in certain environments may be useful in

  12. Simulating and quantifying legacy topographic data uncertainty: an initial step to advancing topographic change analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasklewicz, Thad; Zhu, Zhen; Gares, Paul

    2017-12-01

    Rapid technological advances, sustained funding, and a greater recognition of the value of topographic data have helped develop an increasing archive of topographic data sources. Advances in basic and applied research related to Earth surface changes require researchers to integrate recent high-resolution topography (HRT) data with the legacy datasets. Several technical challenges and data uncertainty issues persist to date when integrating legacy datasets with more recent HRT data. The disparate data sources required to extend the topographic record back in time are often stored in formats that are not readily compatible with more recent HRT data. Legacy data may also contain unknown error or unreported error that make accounting for data uncertainty difficult. There are also cases of known deficiencies in legacy datasets, which can significantly bias results. Finally, scientists are faced with the daunting challenge of definitively deriving the extent to which a landform or landscape has or will continue to change in response natural and/or anthropogenic processes. Here, we examine the question: how do we evaluate and portray data uncertainty from the varied topographic legacy sources and combine this uncertainty with current spatial data collection techniques to detect meaningful topographic changes? We view topographic uncertainty as a stochastic process that takes into consideration spatial and temporal variations from a numerical simulation and physical modeling experiment. The numerical simulation incorporates numerous topographic data sources typically found across a range of legacy data to present high-resolution data, while the physical model focuses on more recent HRT data acquisition techniques. Elevation uncertainties observed from anchor points in the digital terrain models are modeled using "states" in a stochastic estimator. Stochastic estimators trace the temporal evolution of the uncertainties and are natively capable of incorporating sensor

  13. Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2006-01-01

    Ross's Simulation, Fourth Edition introduces aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This text explains how a computer can be used to generate random numbers, and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. It presents the statist

  14. Simulating The Change In Agricultural Fruit Patterns In The Context of River Basin Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloecking, B.; Laue, K.; Stroebl, B.

    A new concept has been developed for the integrated analysis of impacts of Global Change and direct human activities on the environment and the society in mesoscale river basins. The main steps of this approach are: (1) Developing a set of regional scenarios of change considering expected changes in climate, economic, demographic and social development, (2) Identification of indicators of sustainability for the impact assessment, (3) Impact analysis of the defined scenarios of development, (4) Evalu- ation of the different scenarios on the basis of the impact analysis to elaborate new stategies in regional development. All steps include consultations with actors and stakeholders. The concept is applied in the western part of Thuringia (7.500 km2), covering the basin of the Unstrut river. This part of the German Elbe river basin is highly suited for food production under the present conditions. Therefore it is a good site for vulnerability studies focused on agriculture. The development of agricultural land-use scenarios for the Unstrut region will be done in form of a bottom-up approach based on adaptation reactions of example farms within the expected boundary condi- tions such as the global food markets and other global economic trends as well as in- ternational agreements. Representing the present conditions in Thuringia, a referential land-use scenario was developed, assuming a complete realisation of the AGENDA 2000 resolutions. Impacts of changed land use in combination with climate change scenarios on plant production and on availability and quality of water are been inves- tigated with the help of a spatial distributed river basin model. A GIS-based approach was developed to locate the spatially not explicit land use scenarios. This approach allows to reproduce the agricultural fruit patterns of a region in a river basin model without taking into account the real field boundaries. First simulation results for the referential climate and land-use scenario

  15. Simulated effects of a seasonal precipitation change on the vegetation in tropical Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Gritti

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Pollen data collected in Africa at high (Kuruyange, valley swamp, Burundi and low altitude (Victoria, lake, Uganda; Ngamakala, pond, Congo showed that after 6 ky before present (BP, pollen of deciduous trees increase their relative percentage, suggesting thus the reduction of the annual amount of precipitation and/or an increase of in the length of the dry season. Until now, pollen-climate transfer functions only investigated mean annual precipitation, due to the absence of modern pollen-assemblage analogs under diversified precipitation regimes. Hence these functions omit the potential effect of a change in precipitation seasonality modifying thus the length of the dry season. In the present study, we use an equilibrium biosphere model (i.e. BIOME3.5 to estimate the sensitivity of equatorial African vegetation, at specific sites, to such changes. Climatic scenarios, differing only in the monthly distribution of the current annual amount of precipitation, are examined at the above three locations in equatorial Africa. Soil characteristics, monthly temperatures and cloudiness are kept constant at their present-day values. Good agreement is shown between model simulations and current biomes assemblages, as inferred from pollen data. To date, the increase of the deciduous forest component in the palaeodata around 6 ky BP has been interpreted as the beginning of a drier climate period. However, our results demonstrate that a change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation could also induce the observed changes in vegetation types. This study confirms the importance of taking into account seasonal changes in the hydrological balance. Palaeoecologists can greatly benefit from the use of dynamic process based vegetation models to acccount for modification of the length of the dry season when they wish to reconstruct vegetation composition or to infer quantitative climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, from pollen or vegetation

  16. Changes in Moisture Flux Over the Tibetan Plateau During 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin; Cuo, Lan

    2015-05-01

    Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. Improvement in simulating precipitation changes at high elevations contributes dominantly to the improved P-E changes. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.

  17. Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Insulin: Elucidating the Conformational Changes that Enable Its Binding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios Papaioannou

    Full Text Available A sequence of complex conformational changes is required for insulin to bind to the insulin receptor. Recent experimental evidence points to the B chain C-terminal (BC-CT as the location of these changes in insulin. Here, we present molecular dynamics simulations of insulin that reveal new insights into the structural changes occurring in the BC-CT. We find three key results: 1 The opening of the BC-CT is inherently stochastic and progresses through an open and then a "wide-open" conformation--the wide-open conformation is essential for receptor binding, but occurs only rarely. 2 The BC-CT opens with a zipper-like mechanism, with a hinge at the Phe24 residue, and is maintained in the dominant closed/inactive state by hydrophobic interactions of the neighboring Tyr26, the critical residue where opening of the BC-CT (activation of insulin is initiated. 3 The mutation Y26N is a potential candidate as a therapeutic insulin analogue. Overall, our results suggest that the binding of insulin to its receptor is a highly dynamic and stochastic process, where initial docking occurs in an open conformation and full binding is facilitated through interactions of insulin receptor residues with insulin in its wide-open conformation.

  18. Angular momentum from CMIP5 climate change simulations, as related to Earth rotation excitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salstein, D.; Quinn, K.

    2012-04-01

    Atmospheric angular momentum parameters are calculated from revised scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration in use in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5, which investigates expected climate change. This phase includes new estimates for the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), designed to simulate more realistically the future path of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases throughout the 21st century. From time series of atmosphere-ocean models that adopt these parameters, we calculate the impact on the excitations for length of day and polar motion through the course of the current century, and hence portions of the expected changes in the ERP's due to the atmosphere. We diagnose the most important geographic areas as regional sources of such variations; earlier such models revealed the particular importance of resulting relevant wind changes in the upper atmosphere of the middle latitudes and the southern hemisphere high latitudes. The spread among the RCP scenarios and among a number of different models gives us an understanding of possible uncertainties in the estimates. Earlier calculations were for the 20th and 21st centuries with less sophisticated greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. We can compare the Earth rotation excitations from the retrospective portions of the model-based estimates with atmospheric reanalyses that are in archives at the IERS Special Bureau for the Atmosphere.

  19. Exploration of Structural Changes in Lactose Permease on Sugar Binding and Proton Transport through Atomistic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin; Jewel, Yead; Dutta, Prashanta

    2017-11-01

    Escherichia coli lactose permease (LacY) actively transports lactose and other galactosides across cell membranes through lactose/H+ symport process. Lactose/H+ symport is a highly complex process that involves large-scale protein conformational changes. The complete picture of lactose/H+ symport is largely unclear. In this work, we develop the force field for sugar molecules compatible with PACE, a hybrid and coarse-grained force field that couples the united-atom protein models with the coarse-grained MARTINI water/lipid. After validation, we implement the new force field to investigate the binding of a β-D-galactopyranosyl-1-thio- β-D-galactopyranoside (TDG) molecule to a wild-type LacY. Transitions from inward-facing to outward-facing conformations upon TDG binding and protonation of Glu269 have been achieved from microsecond simulations. Both the opening of the periplasmic side and closure of the cytoplasmic side of LacY are consistent with experiments. Our analysis suggest that the conformational changes of LacY are a cumulative consequence of inter-domain H-bonds breaking at the periplasmic side, inter-domain salt-bridge formation at the cytoplasmic side, as well as the TDG orientational changes during the transition. This work is supported by US National Science Foundation under Grant No. CBET-1604211.

  20. Design and Simulation of a Vapour Compression Refrigeration System Using Phase Change Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siddharth Raju

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper details the design and simulation of a solar powered vapour compression refrigeration system. The effect of a phase change material, in this case ice, on a vapour compression refrigeration system powered by solar panels is discussed. The battery and solar panels were sized to allow the system to function as an autonomous unit for a minimum of 12 hours. It was concluded that the presence of a phase change material in the refrigeration system caused a considerable increase in both the on and off time of the compressor. The ratio by which the on time increased was greater than the ratio by which the off time was increased. There was a 219% increase in the on time, a 139% increase in the compressor off time and a 3.5% increase in compressor work accompanied by a 5.5% reduction in COP. Thus, under conditions where there is enough load in the system to cause the initial on and off times of the compressor to be comparable, the presence of a phase change material may result in a greater on period than an off period for the compressor.

  1. Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.; Olin, S.

    2015-01-01

    quantified at the global scale. Here we assess the effect of representing agricultural land management in a dynamic global vegetation model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative E LUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes, but also changed...... processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (E LUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (S L; S T = S L − E LUC). One key aspect of the interplay of E LUC and S L is the role of agricultural processes in land-use change emissions, which has not yet been clearly...... the timescale over which these emissions occurred and led to underestimations of the carbon sequestered by possible future reforestation actions. The vast majority of Earth system models in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting either an overestimation in their present...

  2. Simulation and assessment of urbanization impacts on runoff metrics: insights from landuse changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Xia, Jun; Yu, Jingjie; Randall, Mark; Zhang, Yichi; Zhao, Tongtiegang; Pan, Xingyao; Zhai, Xiaoyan; Shao, Quanxi

    2018-05-01

    Urbanization-induced landuse changes alter runoff regimes in complex ways. In this study, a detailed investigation of the urbanization impacts on runoff regimes is provided by using multiple runoff metrics and with consideration of landuse dynamics. A catchment hydrological model is modified by coupling a simplified flow routing module of the urban drainage system and landuse dynamics to improve long-term urban runoff simulations. Moreover, multivariate statistical approach is adopted to mine the spatial variations of runoff metrics so as to further identify critical impact factors of landuse changes. The Qing River catchment as a peri-urban catchment in the Beijing metropolitan area is selected as our study region. Results show that: (1) the dryland agriculture is decreased from 13.9% to 1.5% of the total catchment area in the years 2000-2015, while the percentages of impervious surface, forest and grass are increased from 63.5% to 72.4%, 13.5% to 16.6% and 5.1% to 6.5%, respectively. The most dramatic landuse changes occur in the middle and downstream regions; (2) The combined landuse changes do not alter the average flow metrics obviously at the catchment outlet, but slightly increase the high flow metrics, particularly the extreme high flows; (3) The impacts on runoff metrics in the sub-catchments are more obvious than those at the catchment outlet. For the average flow metrics, the most impacted metric is the runoff depth in the dry season (October ∼ May) with a relative change from -10.9% to 11.6%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and grass. For the high flow metrics, the extreme high flow depth is increased most significantly with a relative change from -0.6% to 10.5%, and the critical impact factors are the impervious surface and dryland agriculture; (4) The runoff depth metrics in the sub-catchments are increased because of the landuse changes from dryland agriculture to impervious surface, but are decreased because of the

  3. Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

    2011-01-01

    Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

  4. Changing the Learning Curve in Novice Laparoscopists: Incorporating Direct Visualization into the Simulation Training Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawidek, Mark T; Roach, Victoria A; Ott, Michael C; Wilson, Timothy D

    A major challenge in laparoscopic surgery is the lack of depth perception. With the development and continued improvement of 3D video technology, the potential benefit of restoring 3D vision to laparoscopy has received substantial attention from the surgical community. Despite this, procedures conducted under 2D vision remain the standard of care, and trainees must become proficient in 2D laparoscopy. This study aims to determine whether incorporating 3D vision into a 2D laparoscopic simulation curriculum accelerates skill acquisition in novices. Postgraduate year-1 surgical specialty residents (n = 15) at the Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, at Western University were randomized into 1 of 2 groups. The control group practiced the Fundamentals of Laparoscopic Surgery peg-transfer task to proficiency exclusively under standard 2D laparoscopy conditions. The experimental group first practiced peg transfer under 3D direct visualization, with direct visualization of the working field. Upon reaching proficiency, this group underwent a perceptual switch, changing to standard 2D laparoscopy conditions, and once again trained to proficiency. Incorporating 3D direct visualization before training under standard 2D conditions significantly (p learning curves for each respective training protocol. An adaptive learning approach, which incorporates 3D direct visualization into a 2D laparoscopic simulation curriculum, accelerates skill acquisition. This is in contrast to previous work, possibly owing to the proficiency-based methodology employed, and has implications for resource savings in surgical training. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Large-scale conformational changes of Trypanosoma cruzi proline racemase predicted by accelerated molecular dynamics simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Augusto F de Oliveira

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Chagas' disease, caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (T. cruzi, is a life-threatening illness affecting 11-18 million people. Currently available treatments are limited, with unacceptable efficacy and safety profiles. Recent studies have revealed an essential T. cruzi proline racemase enzyme (TcPR as an attractive candidate for improved chemotherapeutic intervention. Conformational changes associated with substrate binding to TcPR are believed to expose critical residues that elicit a host mitogenic B-cell response, a process contributing to parasite persistence and immune system evasion. Characterization of the conformational states of TcPR requires access to long-time-scale motions that are currently inaccessible by standard molecular dynamics simulations. Here we describe advanced accelerated molecular dynamics that extend the effective simulation time and capture large-scale motions of functional relevance. Conservation and fragment mapping analyses identified potential conformational epitopes located in the vicinity of newly identified transient binding pockets. The newly identified open TcPR conformations revealed by this study along with knowledge of the closed to open interconversion mechanism advances our understanding of TcPR function. The results and the strategy adopted in this work constitute an important step toward the rationalization of the molecular basis behind the mitogenic B-cell response of TcPR and provide new insights for future structure-based drug discovery.

  6. Numerical Simulation of the Water Cycle Change Over the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    2003-01-01

    We have used numerical models to test the impact of the change in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration on the global circulation, particularly focusing on the hydrologic cycle, namely the global cycling of water and continental recycling of water. We have run four numerical simulations using mean annual SST from the early part of the 20th century (1900-1920) and the later part (1980-2000). In addition, we vary the CO2 concentrations for these periods as well. The duration of the simulations is 15 years, and the spatial resolution is 2 degrees. We use passive tracers to study the geographical sources of water. Surface evaporation from predetermined continental and oceanic regions provides the source of water for each passive tracer. In this way, we compute the percent of precipitation of each region over the globe. This can also be used to estimate precipitation recycling. In addition, we are using the passive tracers to independently compute the global cycling of water (compared to the traditional, Q/P calculation).

  7. Vineyard acreage simulations in consideration of climatic changes affecting Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dressler Marc

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An interdisciplinary research project has determined the predictable potential areas suitable for vineyard use in Rhine- land-Palatinate by means of the application of the latest available data and in consideration of climatic changes. The objective was to identify the maximum acreage potential with suitability for viniculture in Rhineland-Palatinate as a theoretical high-case scenario for liberalisation. For this purpose an acreage simulation model was developed and validated to capture and consolidate climate data, simulation runs of regional climate models, geodata, the automated land property map and actual measuring data on frost damage. Full account was taken of anthropogenic, climatic and pedological selection criteria. Finally a GIS-based data blending with the suitable areas yielded the potential acreage for viniculture in Rhineland-Palatinate. The model estimates an additional acreage potential with suitability for viniculture of 335,000 acres (135,000 ha in Rhineland-Palatinate. The analyses further underline the potential for state-of-the art risk management and data based managerial decision making to counter climate induced challenges.

  8. Modeling and simulation of a phase change material system for improving summer comfort in domestic residence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borderon, Julien; Virgone, Joseph; Cantin, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Modeling of a PCM/air ventilation system. • Sizing of PCM system units. • Simulation in TRNSYS of the system connected to a house and enhancement of the summer comfort. - Abstract: In the current context of thermal improvement in the building sector, research of new solutions to integrate to the retrofitting process is an essential step in the way of saving energy. With the purpose of maintaining or improving the summer comfort after a retrofitting in a residential building, Phase Change Materials (PCM) could be used to bring enough inertia to use the freshness of night for cooling during the warmest hour in the day. Passive solutions of PCM integration have demonstrated their limited benefits. Using PCM in the way proposed in this article goes through the design of a PCM/air system able to store latent heat. This unit is coupled to the ventilation system to ensure that the heat transfers between the ventilated air and the PCM stock are forced convection and then higher than the ones with natural convection. The fusion and solidification temperature for the PCM needs to be carefully chosen to allow the latent heat storage. To analyze the behavior of such a system in a retrofitted house with the climate of 4 different French cities, simulations in different configurations have been carried out. According to these climates, we analyze the necessary conditions for the improvement of efficiency of PCM use. Also, the appropriate PCM melting temperature range is defined with corresponding existing PCM characteristics. After, optimal thickness is obtained considering the diurnal temperature evolutions. The TRNSYS software runs the modeled house, coupled with Matlab for the PCM/air system model. The number of units of such a system can be changed and adapted to the different climates. Results are expressed in terms of percentage of the time when the indoor operative temperature reaches a certain level. Comparisons are made with classical systems without

  9. Qualitative simulation of bathymetric changes due to reservoir sedimentation: A Japanese case study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Bilal

    Full Text Available Sediment-dynamics modeling is a useful tool for estimating a dam's lifespan and its cost-benefit analysis. Collecting real data for sediment-dynamics analysis from conventional field survey methods is both tedious and expensive. Therefore, for most rivers, the historical record of data is either missing or not very detailed. Available data and existing tools have much potential and may be used for qualitative prediction of future bathymetric change trend. This study shows that proxy approaches may be used to increase the spatiotemporal resolution of flow data, and hypothesize the river cross-sections and sediment data. Sediment-dynamics analysis of the reach of the Tenryu River upstream of Sakuma Dam in Japan was performed to predict its future bathymetric changes using a 1D numerical model (HEC-RAS. In this case study, only annually-averaged flow data and the river's longitudinal bed profile at 5-year intervals were available. Therefore, the other required data, including river cross-section and geometry and sediment inflow grain sizes, had to be hypothesized or assimilated indirectly. The model yielded a good qualitative agreement, with an R2 (coefficient of determination of 0.8 for the observed and simulated bed profiles. A predictive simulation demonstrated that the useful life of the dam would end after the year 2035 (±5 years, which is in conformity with initial detailed estimates. The study indicates that a sediment-dynamic analysis can be performed even with a limited amount of data. However, such studies may only assess the qualitative trends of sediment dynamics.

  10. Qualitative simulation of bathymetric changes due to reservoir sedimentation: A Japanese case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilal, Ahmed; Dai, Wenhong; Larson, Magnus; Beebo, Qaid Naamo; Xie, Qiancheng

    2017-01-01

    Sediment-dynamics modeling is a useful tool for estimating a dam's lifespan and its cost-benefit analysis. Collecting real data for sediment-dynamics analysis from conventional field survey methods is both tedious and expensive. Therefore, for most rivers, the historical record of data is either missing or not very detailed. Available data and existing tools have much potential and may be used for qualitative prediction of future bathymetric change trend. This study shows that proxy approaches may be used to increase the spatiotemporal resolution of flow data, and hypothesize the river cross-sections and sediment data. Sediment-dynamics analysis of the reach of the Tenryu River upstream of Sakuma Dam in Japan was performed to predict its future bathymetric changes using a 1D numerical model (HEC-RAS). In this case study, only annually-averaged flow data and the river's longitudinal bed profile at 5-year intervals were available. Therefore, the other required data, including river cross-section and geometry and sediment inflow grain sizes, had to be hypothesized or assimilated indirectly. The model yielded a good qualitative agreement, with an R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.8 for the observed and simulated bed profiles. A predictive simulation demonstrated that the useful life of the dam would end after the year 2035 (±5 years), which is in conformity with initial detailed estimates. The study indicates that a sediment-dynamic analysis can be performed even with a limited amount of data. However, such studies may only assess the qualitative trends of sediment dynamics.

  11. Changes in the specific migration characteristics of packaging-food simulant combinations caused by ionizing radiation: Effect of food simulant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zygoura, Panagiota D., E-mail: me00806@cc.uoi.g [Laboratory of Food Chemistry and Technology, Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Paleologos, Evangelos K.; Kontominas, Michael G. [Laboratory of Food Chemistry and Technology, Department of Chemistry, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2011-08-15

    The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the extent to which the affinity of the surrounding medium for the migrant, as well as the packaging material, affects the specific migration characteristics of the latter. For this purpose, migration tests were conducted with vinylidene chloride copolymer (PVDC/PVC) in contact with the EU specified solvents simulating all food types: namely, distilled water, 3% w/v acetic acid, 10% v/v ethanol and isooctane. Migration testing was carried out at 40 {sup o}C for 10 days for the aqueous simulants, and at 20 {sup o}C for 2 days for the fatty food simulant (). In addition, food-grade saran film was subjected to ionizing radiation treatment with a [{sup 60}Co] source at doses equal to 5, 15 and 25 kGy. Acetyl tributyl citrate (ATBC) plasticizer levels were monitored as a function of time for untreated, as well as gamma-irradiated packaging material, with a secondary objective to investigate the effect of ionizing radiation on polymer/migrant/surrounding medium interactions. Depending on the food simulant, determination of the analyte was performed by either direct gas chromatographic analysis, or surfactant (Triton X-114) mediated extraction followed by gas chromatographic-flame ionization detection (GC-FID). ATBC concentrations determined in aqueous and fatty food simulants were 0.216-0.497 and 5.0-5.9 mg/L, respectively. Therefore, the most efficient extracting medium of plasticizers in vinyl chloride copolymers is the non-polar isooctane. Moreover, an extremely high rate of ATBC migration into isooctane during the early stages of contact was observed. The above observation verifies the aggressiveness of isooctane towards plastic packaging materials. Amongst the aqueous food simulants tested, the 10% ethanol solution demonstrated the highest migration levels. Gamma-irradiation enhanced ATBC migration; specific migration levels increased with increasing contact time and radiation dose. This was expected, since

  12. Changes in the specific migration characteristics of packaging-food simulant combinations caused by ionizing radiation: Effect of food simulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zygoura, Panagiota D.; Paleologos, Evangelos K.; Kontominas, Michael G.

    2011-08-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the extent to which the affinity of the surrounding medium for the migrant, as well as the packaging material, affects the specific migration characteristics of the latter. For this purpose, migration tests were conducted with vinylidene chloride copolymer (PVDC/PVC) in contact with the EU specified solvents simulating all food types: namely, distilled water, 3% w/v acetic acid, 10% v/v ethanol and isooctane. Migration testing was carried out at 40 °C for 10 days for the aqueous simulants, and at 20 °C for 2 days for the fatty food simulant (EC, 1997; EEC, 1993). In addition, food-grade saran film was subjected to ionizing radiation treatment with a [60Co] source at doses equal to 5, 15 and 25 kGy. Acetyl tributyl citrate (ATBC) plasticizer levels were monitored as a function of time for untreated, as well as gamma-irradiated packaging material, with a secondary objective to investigate the effect of ionizing radiation on polymer/migrant/surrounding medium interactions. Depending on the food simulant, determination of the analyte was performed by either direct gas chromatographic analysis, or surfactant (Triton X-114) mediated extraction followed by gas chromatographic-flame ionization detection (GC-FID). ATBC concentrations determined in aqueous and fatty food simulants were 0.216-0.497 and 5.0-5.9 mg/L, respectively. Therefore, the most efficient extracting medium of plasticizers in vinyl chloride copolymers is the non-polar isooctane. Moreover, an extremely high rate of ATBC migration into isooctane during the early stages of contact was observed. The above observation verifies the aggressiveness of isooctane towards plastic packaging materials. Amongst the aqueous food simulants tested, the 10% ethanol solution demonstrated the highest migration levels. Gamma-irradiation enhanced ATBC migration; specific migration levels increased with increasing contact time and radiation dose. This was expected

  13. Changes in the specific migration characteristics of packaging-food simulant combinations caused by ionizing radiation: Effect of food simulant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zygoura, Panagiota D.; Paleologos, Evangelos K.; Kontominas, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the extent to which the affinity of the surrounding medium for the migrant, as well as the packaging material, affects the specific migration characteristics of the latter. For this purpose, migration tests were conducted with vinylidene chloride copolymer (PVDC/PVC) in contact with the EU specified solvents simulating all food types: namely, distilled water, 3% w/v acetic acid, 10% v/v ethanol and isooctane. Migration testing was carried out at 40 o C for 10 days for the aqueous simulants, and at 20 o C for 2 days for the fatty food simulant (). In addition, food-grade saran film was subjected to ionizing radiation treatment with a [ 60 Co] source at doses equal to 5, 15 and 25 kGy. Acetyl tributyl citrate (ATBC) plasticizer levels were monitored as a function of time for untreated, as well as gamma-irradiated packaging material, with a secondary objective to investigate the effect of ionizing radiation on polymer/migrant/surrounding medium interactions. Depending on the food simulant, determination of the analyte was performed by either direct gas chromatographic analysis, or surfactant (Triton X-114) mediated extraction followed by gas chromatographic-flame ionization detection (GC-FID). ATBC concentrations determined in aqueous and fatty food simulants were 0.216-0.497 and 5.0-5.9 mg/L, respectively. Therefore, the most efficient extracting medium of plasticizers in vinyl chloride copolymers is the non-polar isooctane. Moreover, an extremely high rate of ATBC migration into isooctane during the early stages of contact was observed. The above observation verifies the aggressiveness of isooctane towards plastic packaging materials. Amongst the aqueous food simulants tested, the 10% ethanol solution demonstrated the highest migration levels. Gamma-irradiation enhanced ATBC migration; specific migration levels increased with increasing contact time and radiation dose. This was expected, since ATBC did not

  14. Correcting Misconceptions on Electronics: Effects of a Simulation-Based Learning Environment Backed by a Conceptual Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Lung; Pan, Pei-Rong; Sung, Yao-Ting; Chang, Kuo-En

    2013-01-01

    Computer simulation has significant potential as a supplementary tool for effective conceptual-change learning based on the integration of technology and appropriate instructional strategies. This study elucidates misconceptions in learning on diodes and constructs a conceptual-change learning system that incorporates…

  15. Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manabe, S.; Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.

    2004-01-01

    By use of a coupled ocean atmosphere-land model, this study explores the changes of water availability, as measured by river discharge and soil moisture, that could occur by the middle of the 21st century in response to combined increases of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols based upon the "IS92a" scenario. In addition, it presents the simulated change in water availability that might be realized in a few centuries in response to a quadrupling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Averaging the results over extended periods, the radiatively forced changes, which are very similar between the two sets of experiments, were successfully extracted. The analysis indicates that the discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by up to 20% (of the pre-Industrial Period level) by the middle of the 21st century and by up to 40% or more in a few centuries. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra rivers increase substantially. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller, with both positive and negative signs. For soil moisture, the results of this study indicate reductions during much of the year in many semiarid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. As a percentage, the reduction is particularly large during the dry season. From middle to high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter.

  16. Molecular dynamics simulations of conformation changes of HIV-1 regulatory protein on graphene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Daohui; Li, Libo; He, Daohang; Zhou, Jian, E-mail: jianzhou@scut.edu.cn

    2016-07-30

    Graphical abstract: Preferential adsorption of Vpr13-33 on graphene accompanied by early conformational change from α-helix to β-sheet structures was observed by molecular simulations. This work presents the molecular mechanism of graphene-induced peptide conformational alteration and sheds light on developing graphene-based materials to inhibit HIV. - Highlights: • Graphene induced early structural transition of Vpr13-33 is studied by MD simulations. • Both π-π stacking and hydrophobic interactions orchestrate the peptide adsorption. • Vpr has an increased propensity of β-sheet content on graphene surface. • To develop graphene-based materials to inhibit HIV is possible. - Abstract: The fragment of viral protein R (Vpr), Vpr13-33, plays an important role in regulating nuclear importing of HIV genes through channel formation in which it adopts a leucine-zipper-like alpha-helical conformation. A recent experimental study reported that helical Vpr13-33 would transform to β-sheet or random coil structures and aggregate on the surface of graphene or graphene oxide through hydrophobic interactions. Due to experimental limitations, however, there is still a considerable lack of understanding on the adsorption dynamics at the early stage of the conformational transition at water-graphene interface and the underlying driving force at molecular level. In this study, atomistic molecular dynamics simulations were used to explore the conformation transition phenomena. Vpr13-33 kept α-helical structure in solution, but changed to β-sheet structure when strongly adsorbed onto graphene. Preferential adsorption of Vpr13-33 on graphene is dominated by hydrophobic interactions. The cluster analysis identified the most significant populated conformation and the early stage of structure conversion from α-helical to β-sheet was found, but the full β-sheet propagation was not observed. Free energy landscape analysis further complemented the transformation analysis of

  17. Molecular dynamics simulations of conformation changes of HIV-1 regulatory protein on graphene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Daohui; Li, Libo; He, Daohang; Zhou, Jian

    2016-01-01

    Graphical abstract: Preferential adsorption of Vpr13-33 on graphene accompanied by early conformational change from α-helix to β-sheet structures was observed by molecular simulations. This work presents the molecular mechanism of graphene-induced peptide conformational alteration and sheds light on developing graphene-based materials to inhibit HIV. - Highlights: • Graphene induced early structural transition of Vpr13-33 is studied by MD simulations. • Both π-π stacking and hydrophobic interactions orchestrate the peptide adsorption. • Vpr has an increased propensity of β-sheet content on graphene surface. • To develop graphene-based materials to inhibit HIV is possible. - Abstract: The fragment of viral protein R (Vpr), Vpr13-33, plays an important role in regulating nuclear importing of HIV genes through channel formation in which it adopts a leucine-zipper-like alpha-helical conformation. A recent experimental study reported that helical Vpr13-33 would transform to β-sheet or random coil structures and aggregate on the surface of graphene or graphene oxide through hydrophobic interactions. Due to experimental limitations, however, there is still a considerable lack of understanding on the adsorption dynamics at the early stage of the conformational transition at water-graphene interface and the underlying driving force at molecular level. In this study, atomistic molecular dynamics simulations were used to explore the conformation transition phenomena. Vpr13-33 kept α-helical structure in solution, but changed to β-sheet structure when strongly adsorbed onto graphene. Preferential adsorption of Vpr13-33 on graphene is dominated by hydrophobic interactions. The cluster analysis identified the most significant populated conformation and the early stage of structure conversion from α-helical to β-sheet was found, but the full β-sheet propagation was not observed. Free energy landscape analysis further complemented the transformation analysis of

  18. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  19. Storm track response to climate change: Insights from simulations using an idealized dry GCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbengue, Cheikh; Schneider, Tapio

    2013-04-01

    poleward migration of the storm tracks. We demonstrate a poleward migration of the midlatitude storm tracks in dry atmospheres with fixed pole-equator temperature contrast and increasing radiative equilibrium mean temperature, without changes in convective static stability. We also show scalings between the location of maxima of surface MAPE and of barotropic EKE. In the simulations where we independently vary tropical convective static stability, we find a marked poleward migration of the storm tracks. However, our decomposition shows that meridional temperature gradients, and not static stability, determine the location and the intensity of the storm tracks. This suggests that although the storm tracks are sensitive to tropical convective static stability, it influences them indirectly. Furthermore, our simulations show that the storm tracks generally migrate in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley cell. Therefore, we hypothesize that it is possible that the Hadley cell provides the tropical-extratropical communication necessary to generate the storm track response to tropical convective static stability we observe in the simulations. The results contained herein could be used to supplement ongoing storm track research in moist atmospheres using comparatively more comprehensive GCMs to understand storm track dynamics in earth-like environments.

  20. Simulated effects of climate change on the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Agnese, F.A.; O'Brien, G.M.; Faunt, C.C.; San Juan, C.A.

    1999-01-01

    The US Geological Survey, in cooperation with the US Department of Energy, is evaluating the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the Death Valley regional flow system as part of the Yucca Mountain Project. As part of the hydrologic investigation, regional, three-dimensional conceptual and numerical ground-water-flow models have been developed to assess the potential effects of past and future climates on the regional flow system. A simulation that is based on climatic conditions 21,000 years ago was evaluated by comparing the simulated results to observation of paleodischarge sites. Following acceptable simulation of a past climate, a possible future ground-water-flow system, with climatic conditions that represent a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, was simulated. The steady-state simulations were based on the present-day, steady-state, regional ground-water-flow model. The finite-difference model consisted of 163 rows, 153 columns, and 3 layers and was simulated using MODFLOWP. Climate changes were implemented in the regional ground-water-flow model by changing the distribution of ground-water recharge. Global-scale, average-annual, simulated precipitation for both past- and future-climate conditions developed elsewhere were resampled to the model-grid resolution. A polynomial function that represents the Maxey-Eakin method for estimating recharge from precipitation was used to develop recharge distributions for simulation

  1. Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

    2018-01-01

    An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

  2. MORPHO-ANATOMICAL CHANGES OF PEQUI LEAVES (Caryocar brasiliense Cambess. EXPOSED TO SIMULATED DRIFT OF GLYPHOSATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lailla Queiroz Silva

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The goal of this research was to examine phytotoxicity and leaf anatomy of pequi plants (Caryocar brasiliense Cambess. exposed to simulated drift of glyphosate. The experimental design was randomized blocks with nine replications. Each experimental unit was composed by one 18-L pot with one plant. The treatments consisted of different doses of glyphosate sprayed: 0 (control, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000 and 1500 g ae ha-1 of glyphosate. Phytotoxicity visual ratings were carried out at 7, 14 and 21 days after spraying (DAS by scores expressed in a percentage scale, within which zero and one hundred represent no symptom and plant death, respectively. Description of symptoms, changes in leaf anatomy and micromorphometric analysis were performed on leaves taken from plant top and middle third at 23 DAS. Poisoning symptoms were wilting, chlorosis followed by necrosis, winding of top leaves and leaf senescence, being intensified with increasing doses. Leaf anatomical changes were detected from the dose of 250 g ha-1. The observed damages consisted of plasmolized cells, epidermal disruption, distorted cells, hyperplasia, cell collapsing, necrotic tissue and accumulation of phenolic compounds.

  3. Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilarski Michał

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km, does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs, which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km. However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor and small-scale variable (predictand implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

  4. Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Espírito-Santo, Mário; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil's Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO). This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC) model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i) business as usual, (ii) increased deforestation, and (iii) decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.

  5. A simple integrated assessment approach to global change simulation and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogutu, Keroboto; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2016-04-01

    We formulate and study the Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model, which constitutes the basis of our idealized integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via a control of the greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to make hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement, in particular by investing in low carbon technology, in deforestation reduction or in carbon capture and storage (CCS). The CoCEB model is very flexible and transparent, and it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way.

  6. Cytomorphometric changes in hippocampal CA1 neurons exposed to simulated microgravity using rats as model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit eRanjan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Microgravity and sleep loss lead to cognitive and learning deficits. These behavioral alterations are likely to be associated with cytomorphological changes and loss of neurons. To understand the phenomenon, we exposed rats (225-275g to 14 days simulated microgravity (SMg and compared its effects on CA1 hippocampal neuronal plasticity, with that of normal cage control rats. We observed that the mean area, perimeter, synaptic cleft and length of active zone of CA1 hippocampal neurons significantly decreased while dendritic arborization and number of spines significantly increased in SMg group as compared with controls. The mean thickness of the post synaptic density and total dendritic length remained unaltered. The changes may be a compensatory effect induced by exposure to microgravity; however, the effects may be transient or permanent, which need further study. These findings may be useful for designing effective prevention for those, including the astronauts, exposed to microgravity. Further, subject to confirmation we propose that SMg exposure might be useful for recovery of stroke patients.

  7. Numerical simulation of condensation phase change flow in an inclined tube with bend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Jong Chull; Shin, Byung Soo; Do, Kyu Sik [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Yong Kap [Anflux Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The new PWR design named APR+ incorporates a passive auxiliary feedwater system (PAFS) as shown in Fig.1. The PAFS consists of two separate divisions. Each division is equipped with one passive condensation heat exchanger (PCHX), isolation or drain or vent valves, check valves, instrumentation and control, and pipes. It is aligned to feed condensed water to its corresponding steam generator (SG). During the PAFS normal operation, steam being produced in the SG secondary side by the residual heat moves up due to buoyancy force and then flows into the PCHX where steam is condensed on the inner surface of the tubes of which the outer surfaces are cooled by the water stored in the passive condensation cooling tank (PCCT). The condensate is passively fed into the SG economizer by gravity. Because the thermal hydraulic characteristics in the PCHT determine the condensation mass rate and the possibility of system instability and water hammer, it is important to understand the condensation phase change flow in the PCHT. This paper presents a numerical simulation of the condensation phase change flow in the PCHX adopted for the APR+ PAFS.

  8. Development of sustainable stormwater management using simulation-optimization approach under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-ru; Tung, Ching-pin

    2015-04-01

    Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in recently year. The traditional facility to handle runoff is the drainage system which is designed in accordance with the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. However, the flooding occurs once the drainage capacity is overwhelmed by excess stormwater. Thus the general solution are that expanding and upgrading the existing drainage system or increasing the design return period for new development areas to reduce flooding. Besides, another technique which is low impact development(LID) is regarded as more sustainable solution for stormwater management. The concept of LID is to control stormwater at the source by decentralized practices and mimic the predevelopment hydrologic conditions including storage, retention and high rate of infiltration. In contrast to conventional drainage system aims to move runoff away as quickly as possible, the LID approach attempts to keep runoff on site to reduce peak and volume of flow. The purpose of this research is to identify the most cost-effective measures for stormwater management after the analysis of the strategies combining drainage system and LID on various land use planning. The case study is a rural community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and having residential areas, farms and pond. It is assumed that two land use layout are planned and drainage system are designed for 2-,and 5-year return period events. On the other hand, three LID technologies, namely green roof, porous pavement and rain barrel, are selected to place in the scenario of the drainage system for 2-year return period event, and the minimal peak flow is target to optimize LID placement by simulated annealing algorithm. Moreover, the design storm under climate change are derived from

  9. Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

    2015-01-01

    Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing

  10. Theory, simulation and experimental results of the acoustic detection of magnetization changes in superparamagnetic iron oxide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borgert Jörn

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnetic Particle Imaging is a novel method for medical imaging. It can be used to measure the local concentration of a tracer material based on iron oxide nanoparticles. While the resulting images show the distribution of the tracer material in phantoms or anatomic structures of subjects under examination, no information about the tissue is being acquired. To expand Magnetic Particle Imaging into the detection of soft tissue properties, a new method is proposed, which detects acoustic emissions caused by magnetization changes in superparamagnetic iron oxide. Methods Starting from an introduction to the theory of acoustically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging, a comparison to magnetically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging is presented. Furthermore, an experimental setup for the detection of acoustic emissions is described, which consists of the necessary field generating components, i.e. coils and permanent magnets, as well as a calibrated microphone to perform the detection. Results The estimated detection limit of acoustic Magnetic Particle Imaging is comparable to the detection limit of magnetic resonance imaging for iron oxide nanoparticles, whereas both are inferior to the theoretical detection limit for magnetically detected Magnetic Particle Imaging. Sufficient data was acquired to perform a comparison to the simulated data. The experimental results are in agreement with the simulations. The remaining differences can be well explained. Conclusions It was possible to demonstrate the detection of acoustic emissions of magnetic tracer materials in Magnetic Particle Imaging. The processing of acoustic emission in addition to the tracer distribution acquired by magnetic detection might allow for the extraction of mechanical tissue parameters. Such parameters, like for example the velocity of sound and the attenuation caused by the tissue, might also be used to support and improve ultrasound imaging. However, the method

  11. Simulated effects of hydrologic, water quality, and land-use changes of the Lake Maumelle watershed, Arkansas, 2004–10

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Rheannon M.; Green, W. Reed; Westerman, Drew A.; Petersen, James C.; DeLanois, Jeanne L.

    2012-01-01

    Lake Maumelle, located in central Arkansas northwest of the cities of Little Rock and North Little Rock, is one of two principal drinking-water supplies for the Little Rock, and North Little Rock, Arkansas, metropolitan areas. Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River (its primary tributary) are more pristine than most other reservoirs and streams in the region with 80 percent of the land area in the entire watershed being forested. However, as the Lake Maumelle watershed becomes increasingly more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive, concerns about the sustainability of the quality of the water supply also have increased. Two hydrodynamic and water-quality models were developed to examine the hydrology and water quality in the Lake Maumelle watershed and changes that might occur as the watershed becomes more urbanized and timber harvesting becomes more extensive. A Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN watershed model was developed using continuous streamflow and discreet suspended-sediment and water-quality data collected from January 2004 through 2010. A CE–QUAL–W2 model was developed to simulate reservoir hydrodynamics and selected water-quality characteristics using the simulated output from the Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model from January 2004 through 2010. The calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program–FORTRAN model and the calibrated CE–QUAL–W2 model were developed to simulate three land-use scenarios and to examine the potential effects of these land-use changes, as defined in the model, on the water quality of Lake Maumelle during the 2004 through 2010 simulation period. These scenarios included a scenario that simulated conversion of most land in the watershed to forest (scenario 1), a scenario that simulated conversion of potentially developable land to low-intensity urban land use in part of the watershed (scenario 2), and a scenario that simulated timber harvest in part of the watershed (scenario 3). Simulated land

  12. Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R; Lafleur, J; Poirier, C; Lacombe, P; Brousseau, J [Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l' Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d' Expertise Hydrique; Sparks, D; Tapsoba, D [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.

  13. Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R.; Lafleur, J.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P.; Brousseau, J. [Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l' Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d' Expertise Hydrique; Sparks, D.; Tapsoba, D. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.

  14. Land-Cover Change Analysis and Simulation in Conakry (Guinea, Using Hybrid Cellular-Automata and Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arafan Traore

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, land-cover change in the capital Conakry of Guinea was simulated using the integrated Cellular Automata and Markov model (CA-Markov in the Geographic Information System (GIS and Remote Sensing (RS. Historical land-cover change information was derived from 1986, 2000 and 2016 Landsat data. Using the land-cover change maps of 1986 and 2000, the land-cover change map for 2016 was simulated based on the Markov model in IDRISSI software (Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA. The simulated result was compared with the 2016 land-cover map for validation using the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC. The ROC result showed a very strong agreement between the two maps. From this result, the land-cover change map for 2025 was simulated using CA-Markov model. The result has indicated that the proportion of the urban area was 49% in 2016, and it is expected to increase to 52% by 2025, while vegetation will decrease from 35% in 2016 to 32% in 2025. This study suggests that the rapid land-cover change has been led by both rapid population growth and extreme poverty in rural areas, which will result in migration into Conakry. The results of this study will provide bases for assessing the sustainability and the management of the urban area and for taking actions to mitigate the degradation of the urban environment.

  15. IMPROVING MEDICAL EDUCATION: SIMULATING CHANGES IN PATIENT ANATOMY USING DYNAMIC HAPTIC FEEDBACK

    OpenAIRE

    Yovanoff, Mary; Pepley, David; Mirkin, Katelin; Moore, Jason; Han, David; Miller, Scarlett

    2016-01-01

    Virtual simulation is an emerging field in medical education. Research suggests that simulation reduces complication rates and improves learning gains for medical residents. One benefit of simulators is their allowance for more realistic and dynamic patient anatomies. While potentially useful throughout medical education, few studies have explored the impact of dynamic haptic simulators on medical training. In light of this research void, this study was developed to examine how a Dynamic-Hapt...

  16. Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

  17. Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Weilin; Jiang, Zhihong [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China); Li, Laurent [IPSL/CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Yiou, Pascal [IPSL, UMR CNRS-CEA-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France)

    2011-02-15

    A variable-grid atmospheric general circulation model, LMDZ, with a local zoom over southeast China is used to investigate regional climate changes in terms of both means and extremes. Two time slices of 30 years are chosen to represent, respectively, the end of the 20th century and the middle of the 21st century. The lower-boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and sea-ice extension) are taken from the outputs of three global coupled climate models: Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Results from a two-way nesting system between LMDZ-global and LMDZ-regional are also presented. The evaluation of simulated temperature and precipitation for the current climate shows that LMDZ reproduces generally well the spatial distribution of mean climate and extreme climate events in southeast China, but the model has systematic cold biases in temperature and tends to overestimate the extreme precipitation. The two-way nesting model can reduce the ''cold bias'' to some extent compared to the one-way nesting model. Results with greenhouse gas forcing from the SRES-A2 emission scenario show that there is a significant increase for mean, daily-maximum and minimum temperature in the entire region, associated with a decrease in the number of frost days and an increase in the heat wave duration. The annual frost days are projected to significantly decrease by 12-19 days while the heat wave duration to increase by about 7 days. A warming environment gives rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. Except two simulations (LMDZ/GFDL and LMDZ/IPSL2) that project a decrease in maximum 5-day precipitation (R5d) for winter, other precipitation extremes are projected to increase over most of southeast China in all seasons, and among the three global scenarios. The domain-averaged values for annual simple daily intensity index (SDII), R5d and fraction of

  18. Simulation of a load change stress in a powertrain through practical examples; Simulation des Lastwechselschlags im Antriebsstrang anhand von Praxisbeispielen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Jun; Vorwerk, Christoph [Ford-Werke GmbH, Koeln (Germany); Stoecker, Andreas; Laschet, Andreas [ARLA Maschinentechnik GmbH, Wipperfuerth (Germany); Gunning, Kieron; Bharj, Tej [Ford Motor Company Ltd., Dunton (United Kingdom)

    2011-07-01

    This article compares impacts during load changes with the actual vehicle and test rig measurements. By the means of variant studies, the acoustic optimisation potential of the single components relating to the holistic system is highlighted, especially the acoustic phenomenon of the load change impacts. For a better understanding of the system and the measured phenomena as well as a demonstration of the potential optimisation possibilities a complex torsional vibration model of the analysed drivetrain was created. With the use of modern CAE tools early in the development stage, the refinement possibilities in terms of the NVH sensitivity of the drivetrain can be predicted and the subsequent solutions determined. (orig.)

  19. Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

    OpenAIRE

    Dengpan Xiao; Huizi Bai; De Li Liu

    2018-01-01

    With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used for atmos...

  20. Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayla Stan

    Full Text Available Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil's Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO. This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i business as usual, (ii increased deforestation, and (iii decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.

  1. Changes to Glazed Dental Ceramic Shade, Roughness, and Microhardness after Bleaching and Simulated Brushing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Carlos Roberto Teixeira; Turssi, Cecilia Pedroso; Amaral, Flávia Lucisano Botelho; Basting, Roberta Tarkany; França, Fabiana Mantovani Gomes

    2017-09-05

    To evaluate shade stability, surface roughness, microhardness, and compressive strength of a glazed feldspathic ceramic subjected to bleaching and simulated brushing. Eighty-eight glazed feldspathic ceramic specimens were made from microparticulate leucite and divided into eight groups (n = 10). The whitening products used were: Opalescence Trèswhite Supreme (Ultradent), Opalescence®\\ PF 15% (Ultradent), and Oral-B 3D White Whitestrips. All substances for whitening were used for 4 hours/day for a period of 14 days; the control group was not bleached. Next, half of the specimens were individually brushed. Microhardness and surface roughness data were subjected to three-way ANOVA and Tukey test. The diametrical tensile strength data were subjected to two-way ANOVA. The shade change data were analyzed using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney, and the Student-Newman-Keuls test. The significance level was set at 5%. Glazed feldspathic ceramic surface microhardness was significantly affected by bleaching agents (p = 0.007). Initially, glazed ceramic microhardness was significantly higher than that observed after contact with the bleaching agents, whether or not brushing was performed. The specimens submitted to bleaching in preloaded trays presented lower surface roughness values after brushing (p = 0.037). The surface roughness was significantly lower in the brushed specimens (p = 0.044). The diametrical tensile strength was not significantly affected by the application of bleaching agents (p = 0.563) or by brushing (p = 0.477). When the specimens were brushed, however, shade change was significantly influenced by the bleaching agent used (p = 0.041). Bleaching agents associated with brushing cycles can alter surface properties and shade stability of glazed feldspathic ceramics, though such findings may not reflect the performance of unglazed feldspathic ceramics. © 2017 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

  2. Simulation of Model Force-Loading with Changing Its Position in the Wind Tunnel Test Section

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. T. Bui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available When planning and implementing an aerodynamic experiment, model sizes and its position in the test section of the wind tunnel (WT play very important role. The paper focuses on the value variations of the aerodynamic characteristics of a model through changing its position in the WT test section and on the attenuation of the velocity field disturbance in front of the model. Flow around aerodynamic model profile in the open test section of the low-speed WT T-500 is simulated at BMSTU Department SM3. The problem is solved in a two-dimensional case using the ANSYS Fluent package. The mathematical model of flow is based on the Reynolds equations closed by the SST turbulence model. The paper also presents the results of the experiment. Experiments conducted in WT T-500 well correlate with the calculated data and show the optimal position in the middle of the test section when conducting the weighing and drainage experiments. Disturbance of tunnel dynamic pressure (velocity head and flow upwash around the model profile and circular cylinder in the WT test section is analyzed. It was found that flow upstream from the front stagnation point on the body weakly depends on the Reynolds number and obtained results can be used to assess the level of disturbances in the flow around a model by incompressible airflow.

  3. Simulation of post-impact rotational changes through multi-dimensional parametrization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauchez, Damien; Souchay, Jean

    2006-11-01

    In this paper we propose firstly a full parametrization of an impact on a target body considered as ellipsoidal, including several geometrical parameters which are generally not included. Then we construct a more detailed and complete theoretical model of the rotational changes of the target body arising from a single impact, by taking into account the various parameters above. Secondly from these theoretical studies we carry out simulations of impacts and then we evaluate the influences of the various parameters on the rotational evolution of a specific target, in particular the angular speed of rotation and the direction of the axis of rotation. For that we consider two cases: in the first one, which we call accretion, the projectile is simply stuck to the target without a significant amount of ejected mass. In the second case, which we call craterization, the target body is eroded with formation of ejecta and a crater. The physical properties of the target are close to those of the Asteroid 21 Lutetia which Rosetta mission would fly in July 2010. We obtain quite different results according to the considered mode of impact (accretion or craterization): in the case of an impact with accretion the results are intuitively foreseeable whereas those corresponding to an impact with craterization are more difficult to interpret. Our work can be applied to obtain information on the rotational effects of an impact on a given target body with well constrained physical characteristics, in particular within the framework of the Don Quijote mission project.

  4. On RELAP5-simulated High Flux Isotope Reactor reactivity transients: Code change and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freels, J.D.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a new and innovative application for the RELAP5 code (hereafter referred to as ''the code''). The code has been used to simulate several transients associated with the (presently) draft version of the High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) updated safety analysis report (SAR). This paper investigates those thermal-hydraulic transients induced by nuclear reactivity changes. A major goal of the work was to use an existing RELAP5 HFIR model for consistency with other thermal-hydraulic transient analyses of the SAR. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to incorporate a new self-contained point kinetics solver into the code because of a deficiency in the point-kinetics reactivity model of the Mod 2.5 version of the code. The model was benchmarked against previously analyzed (known) transients. Given this new code, four event categories defined by the HFIR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) were analyzed: (in ascending order of severity) a cold-loop pump start; run-away shim-regulating control cylinder and safety plate withdrawal; control cylinder ejection; and generation of an optimum void in the target region. All transients are discussed. Results of the bounding incredible event transient, the target region optimum void, are shown. Future plans for RELAP5 HFIR applications and recommendations for code improvements are also discussed

  5. Emergent adaptive behaviour of GRN-controlled simulated robots in a changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Yao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We developed a bio-inspired robot controller combining an artificial genome with an agent-based control system. The genome encodes a gene regulatory network (GRN that is switched on by environmental cues and, following the rules of transcriptional regulation, provides output signals to actuators. Whereas the genome represents the full encoding of the transcriptional network, the agent-based system mimics the active regulatory network and signal transduction system also present in naturally occurring biological systems. Using such a design that separates the static from the conditionally active part of the gene regulatory network contributes to a better general adaptive behaviour. Here, we have explored the potential of our platform with respect to the evolution of adaptive behaviour, such as preying when food becomes scarce, in a complex and changing environment and show through simulations of swarm robots in an A-life environment that evolution of collective behaviour likely can be attributed to bio-inspired evolutionary processes acting at different levels, from the gene and the genome to the individual robot and robot population.

  6. Wireless Monitoring of Changes in Crew Relations during Long-Duration Mission Simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Johannes

    Full Text Available Group structure and cohesion along with their changes over time play an important role in the success of missions where crew members spend prolonged periods of time under conditions of isolation and confinement. Therefore, an objective system for unobtrusive monitoring of crew cohesion and possible individual stress reactions is of high interest. For this purpose, an experimental wireless group structure (WLGS monitoring system integrated into a mobile psychophysiological system was developed. In the presented study the WLGS module was evaluated separately in six male subjects (27-38 years old participating in a 520-day simulated mission to Mars. Two days per week, each crew member wore a small sensor that registered the presence and distance of the sensors either worn by the other subjects or strategically placed throughout the isolation facility. The registration between two sensors was on average 91.0% in accordance. A correspondence of 95.7% with the survey video on day 475 confirmed external reliability. An integrated score of the "crew relation time index" was calculated and analyzed over time. Correlation analyses of a sociometric questionnaire (r = .35-.55, p< .05 and an ethological group approach (r = .45-.66, p < 05 provided initial evidence of the method's validity as a measure of cohesion when taking behavioral and activity patterns into account (e.g. only including activity phases in the afternoon. This confirms our assumption that the registered amount of time spent together during free time is associated with the intensity of personal relationships.

  7. Emergent adaptive behaviour of GRN-controlled simulated robots in a changing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yao; Storme, Veronique; Marchal, Kathleen; Van de Peer, Yves

    2016-01-01

    We developed a bio-inspired robot controller combining an artificial genome with an agent-based control system. The genome encodes a gene regulatory network (GRN) that is switched on by environmental cues and, following the rules of transcriptional regulation, provides output signals to actuators. Whereas the genome represents the full encoding of the transcriptional network, the agent-based system mimics the active regulatory network and signal transduction system also present in naturally occurring biological systems. Using such a design that separates the static from the conditionally active part of the gene regulatory network contributes to a better general adaptive behaviour. Here, we have explored the potential of our platform with respect to the evolution of adaptive behaviour, such as preying when food becomes scarce, in a complex and changing environment and show through simulations of swarm robots in an A-life environment that evolution of collective behaviour likely can be attributed to bio-inspired evolutionary processes acting at different levels, from the gene and the genome to the individual robot and robot population.

  8. Emergent adaptive behaviour of GRN-controlled simulated robots in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yao; Storme, Veronique; Marchal, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    We developed a bio-inspired robot controller combining an artificial genome with an agent-based control system. The genome encodes a gene regulatory network (GRN) that is switched on by environmental cues and, following the rules of transcriptional regulation, provides output signals to actuators. Whereas the genome represents the full encoding of the transcriptional network, the agent-based system mimics the active regulatory network and signal transduction system also present in naturally occurring biological systems. Using such a design that separates the static from the conditionally active part of the gene regulatory network contributes to a better general adaptive behaviour. Here, we have explored the potential of our platform with respect to the evolution of adaptive behaviour, such as preying when food becomes scarce, in a complex and changing environment and show through simulations of swarm robots in an A-life environment that evolution of collective behaviour likely can be attributed to bio-inspired evolutionary processes acting at different levels, from the gene and the genome to the individual robot and robot population. PMID:28028477

  9. Changes in handgrip force and blood lactate as response to simulated climbing competition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Gajewski

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to estimate post-competition changes in handgrip strength and blood lactate in climbers and relationships of the studied variables with declared climbing ability of the tested athletes. Twenty one male climbers volunteered to take part in the experiment. Each subject took part in simulated lead climbing competition on the artificial wall – (difficulty 7a in French scale. The blood lactate concentration was measured pre-climbing and then 3 min and 30 min post-climbing. Grip force of both hands (dominant and non-dominant was measured twice – pre-climbing and 1 min post-climbing (semi-final. Maximum heart rate during climbing reached 181.4±7.7 beats per minute. Lactate concentration amounted to 6.35±1.50 mmol/l and 2.28±0.66 mmol/l 3 min and 30 min post-climbing, respectively. Handgrip force related to body mass (averaged for both hands decreased significantly from 7.39±1.30 N/kg pre-climbing to 6.57±1.05 N/kg 1 min post-climbing. Self reported climbing ability was correlated with lactate concentration and handgrip force, as well. It was demonstrated that athletes reporting higher climbing ability showed better lactate recovery.

  10. Adaptation to hydrological extremes through insurance: a financial fund simulation model under changing scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzman, Diego; Mohor, Guilherme; Câmara, Clarissa; Mendiondo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Researches from around the world relate global environmental changes with the increase of vulnerability to extreme events, such as heavy and scarce precipitations - floods and droughts. Hydrological disasters have caused increasing losses in recent years. Thus, risk transfer mechanisms, such as insurance, are being implemented to mitigate impacts, finance the recovery of the affected population, and promote the reduction of hydrological risks. However, among the main problems in implementing these strategies, there are: First, the partial knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change in terms of intensity and frequency; Second, the efficient risk reduction policies require accurate risk assessment, with careful consideration of costs; Third, the uncertainty associated with numerical models and input data used. The objective of this document is to introduce and discuss the feasibility of the application of Hydrological Risk Transfer Models (HRTMs) as a strategy of adaptation to global climate change. The article shows the development of a methodology for the collective and multi-sectoral vulnerability management, facing the hydrological risk in the long term, under an insurance funds simulator. The methodology estimates the optimized premium as a function of willingness to pay (WTP) and the potential direct loss derived from hydrological risk. The proposed methodology structures the watershed insurance scheme in three analysis modules. First, the hazard module, which characterizes the hydrologic threat from the recorded series input or modelled series under IPCC / RCM's generated scenarios. Second, the vulnerability module calculates the potential economic loss for each sector1 evaluated as a function of the return period "TR". Finally, the finance module determines the value of the optimal aggregate premium by evaluating equiprobable scenarios of water vulnerability; taking into account variables such as the maximum limit of coverage, deductible

  11. High resolution crop growth simulation for identification of potential adaptation strategies under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K. S.; Yoo, B. H.

    2016-12-01

    Impact assessment of climate change on crop production would facilitate planning of adaptation strategies. Because socio-environmental conditions would differ by local areas, it would be advantageous to assess potential adaptation measures at a specific area. The objectives of this study was to develop a crop growth simulation system at a very high spatial resolution, e.g., 30 m, and to assess different adaptation options including shift of planting date and use of different cultivars. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was used to predict yields of soybean and maize in Korea. Gridded data for climate and soil were used to prepare input data for the DSSAT model. Weather input data were prepared at the resolution of 30 m using bilinear interpolation from gridded climate scenario data. Those climate data were obtained from Korean Meteorology Administration. Spatial resolution of temperature and precipitation was 1 km whereas that of solar radiation was 12.5 km. Soil series data at the 30 m resolution were obtained from the soil database operated by Rural Development Administration, Korea. The SOL file, which is a soil input file for the DSSAT model was prepared using physical and chemical properties of a given soil series, which were available from the soil database. Crop yields were predicted by potential adaptation options based on planting date and cultivar. For example, 10 planting dates and three cultivars were used to identify ideal management options for climate change adaptation. In prediction of maize yield, combination of 20 planting dates and two cultivars was used as management options. Predicted crop yields differed by site even within a relatively small region. For example, the maximum of average yields for 2001-2010 seasons differed by sites In a county of which areas is 520 km2 (Fig. 1). There was also spatial variation in the ideal management option in the region (Fig. 2). These results suggested that local

  12. Computational Modeling and Simulation of Attitude Change. Part 1, Connectionist Models and Simulations of Cognitive Dissonance: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Voinea, Camelia Florela

    2013-01-01

    Cognitive Dissonance Theory is considered part of the cognitive consistency theories in Social Psychology. They uncover a class of conceptual models which describe the attitude change as a cognitive consistency-seeking issue. As these conceptual models requested more complex operational expression, algebraic, mathematical and, lately, computational modeling approaches of cognitive consistency have been developed. Part 1 of this work provides an overview of the connectionist modeling of cognit...

  13. Optically stimulated luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz due to repeated use in single aliquot readout: experiments and computer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Oklahoma State Univ., Stillwater, OK; Boetter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.; Mejdahl, V.; Poolton, N.R.J.

    1996-01-01

    As part of a study to examine sensitivity changes in single aliquot techniques using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) a series of experiments has been conducted with single aliquots of natural quartz, and the data compared with the results of computer simulations of the type of processes believed to be occurring. The computer model used includes both shallow and deep ('hard-to-bleach') traps, OSL ('easy-to-bleach') traps, and radiative and non-radiative recombination centres. The model has previously been used successfully to account for sensitivity changes in quartz due to thermal annealing. The simulations are able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the experimental results including sensitivity changes as a function of re-use, and their dependence upon bleaching time and laboratory dose. The sensitivity changes are believed to be the result of a combination of shallow trap and deep trap effects. (author)

  14. Optically stimulated luminescence sensitivity changes in quartz due to repeated use in single aliquot readout: Experiments and computer simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKeever, S.W.S.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.; Agersnap Larsen, N.

    1996-01-01

    believed to be occurring. The computer model used includes both shallow and deep ('hard-to-bleach') traps, OSL ('easy-to-bleach') traps, and radiative and non-radiative recombination centres. The model has previously been used successfully to account for sensitivity changes in quartz due to thermal......As part of a study to examine sensitivity changes in single aliquot techniques using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) a series of experiments has been conducted with single aliquots of natural quartz, and the data compared with the results of computer simulations of the type of processes...... annealing. The simulations are able to reproduce qualitatively the main features of the experimental results including sensitivity changes as a function of reuse, and their dependence upon bleaching time and laboratory dose. The sensitivity changes are believed to be the result of a combination of shallow...

  15. Changes in snow cover over China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Ying; Gao Xuejie; Wu Jia; Giorgi, Filippo

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of the climate change simulations conducted using a high resolution regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, at 25 km grid spacing, future changes in snow cover over China are analyzed. The simulations are carried out for the period of 1951–2100 following the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. The results suggest good performances of the model in simulating the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, as well as the starting and ending dates of snow cover to the present day (1981–2000). Their spatial distributions and amounts show fair consistency between the simulation and observation, although with some discrepancies. In general, decreases in the number of snow cover days and the snow cover depth, together with postponed snow starting dates and advanced snow ending dates, are simulated for the future, except in some places where the opposite appears. The most dramatic changes are found over the Tibetan Plateau among the three major snow cover areas of Northeast, Northwest and the Tibetan Plateau in China.

  16. IMPROVING MEDICAL EDUCATION: SIMULATING CHANGES IN PATIENT ANATOMY USING DYNAMIC HAPTIC FEEDBACK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yovanoff, Mary; Pepley, David; Mirkin, Katelin; Moore, Jason; Han, David; Miller, Scarlett

    2016-09-01

    Virtual simulation is an emerging field in medical education. Research suggests that simulation reduces complication rates and improves learning gains for medical residents. One benefit of simulators is their allowance for more realistic and dynamic patient anatomies. While potentially useful throughout medical education, few studies have explored the impact of dynamic haptic simulators on medical training. In light of this research void, this study was developed to examine how a Dynamic-Haptic Robotic Trainer (DHRT) impacts medical student self-efficacy and skill gains compared to traditional simulators developed to train students in Internal Jugular Central Venous Catheter (IJ CVC) placement. The study was conducted with 18 third year medical students with no prior CVC insertion experience who underwent a pre-test, simulator training (manikin, robotic, or mixed) and post-test. The results revealed the DHRT as a useful method for training CVC skills and supports further research on dynamic haptic trainers in medical education.

  17. CFD Simulation of a Concrete Cubicle to Analyze the Thermal Effect of Phase Change Materials in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José L. Míguez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this work, a CFD-based model is proposed to analyse the effect of phase change materials (PCMs on the thermal behaviour of the walls of a cubicle exposed to the environment and on the resistance of the walls to climate changes. The effect of several days of exposure to the environment was simulated using the proposed method. The results of the simulation are compared with experimental data to contrast the models. The effects of exposure on the same days were simulated for several walls of a cubicle made of a mixture of concrete and PCM. The results show that the PCM stabilizes temperatures within the cubicle and decreases energy consumption of refrigeration systems.

  18. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Gleeson, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Livina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little

  19. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelt, van S.C.; Beersma, J.J.; Buishand, T.A.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Kabat, P.

    2012-01-01

    Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.

  20. Students' Conceptual Change in Electricity and Magnetism Using Simulations: A Comparison of Cognitive Perturbation and Cognitive Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dega, Bekele Gashe; Kriek, Jeanne; Mogese, Temesgen Fereja

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate Ethiopian physics undergraduate students' conceptual change in the concepts of electric potential and energy (EPE) and electromagnetic induction (EMI). A quasi-experimental design was used to study the effect of cognitive perturbation using physics interactive simulations (CPS) in relation to cognitive…

  1. On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

    2014-05-01

    In 36 climate change simulations associated with phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), changes in marine low cloud cover (LCC) exhibit a large spread, and may be either positive or negative. Here we develop a heuristic model to understand the source of the spread. The model's premise is that simulated LCC changes can be interpreted as a linear combination of contributions from factors shaping the clouds' large-scale environment. We focus primarily on two factors—the strength of the inversion capping the atmospheric boundary layer (measured by the estimated inversion strength, EIS) and sea surface temperature (SST). For a given global model, the respective contributions of EIS and SST are computed. This is done by multiplying (1) the current-climate's sensitivity of LCC to EIS or SST variations, by (2) the climate-change signal in EIS or SST. The remaining LCC changes are then attributed to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and other environmental factors. The heuristic model is remarkably skillful. Its SST term dominates, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the intermodel variance of LCC changes in CMIP3 models, and about half in CMIP5 models. Of the two factors governing the SST term (the SST increase and the sensitivity of LCC to SST perturbations), the SST sensitivity drives the spread in the SST term and hence the spread in the overall LCC changes. This sensitivity varies a great deal from model to model and is strongly linked to the types of cloud and boundary layer parameterizations used in the models. EIS and SST sensitivities are also estimated using observational cloud and meteorological data. The observed sensitivities are generally consistent with the majority of models as well as expectations from prior research. Based on the observed sensitivities and the relative magnitudes of simulated EIS and SST changes (which we argue are also physically reasonable), the heuristic model predicts LCC

  2. Simulating Residential Demand in Singapore through Five Decades of Demographic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, N. R.; Fernández, J.

    2011-12-01

    Singapore's rapid and well-documented development over the last half-century provides an ideal case for studying urban metabolism. Extensive data [1, 2] facilitate the modeling of historical dynamics of population and resource consumption. This paper presents an agent-based population model that simulates key demographic factors - number, size, and relative income of households - through fifty years of development in Singapore. This is the first step in a broader study linking demographic factors to residential demand for urban land, materials, water, and energy. Previous studies of the resource demands of housing stock have accounted for demographics by modifying the important population driver with a single, aggregated "lifestyle" term [3, 4]. However, demographic changes that result from development can influence the nature of the residential sector, and warrant a closer look. Increasing levels of education and affluence coupled with decreasing birth rates have yielded an aging population and changing family structures in Singapore [5]. These factors all contribute to an increasingly resource-intense residential sector. Singaporeans' elevated per capita income and life expectancy have created demand for larger household area, which means a growing percentage of available land must be dedicated to residential use [6]. While the majority of Singapore's housing is public - a strategy designed to maximize land use efficiency - residents are increasingly seeking private alternatives [7]. In the private sector, lower density housing puts even greater pressure on the finite supply of undeveloped land. Agent-based modeling is used to study the selected aspects of demography. The population is disaggregated into historical time-series distributions of age, family size, education, and income. We propose a simplified methodology correlating average education level with birth rate, and income to categorize households and establish housing unit demand. Aggregated lifestyle

  3. Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

    2013-04-01

    Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled

  4. Numerical simulation of phase change material composite wallboard in a multi-layered building envelope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zwanzig, Stephen D.; Lian, Yongsheng; Brehob, Ellen G.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A numerical method to study the heat transfer through a PCM composite wallboard is presented. ► PCM wallboard can reduce energy consumption and shift peak electricity load. ► There is an optimal location for the PCM wallboard in the building envelop. ► The PCM wallboard performance depends on weather conditions. - Abstract: Phase change materials (PCMs) have the capability to store/release massive latent heat when undergoing phase change. When impregnated or encapsulated into wallboard or concrete systems, PCMs can greatly enhance their thermal energy storage capacity and effective thermal mass. When used in the building envelope PCM wallboard has the potential to improve building operation by reducing the energy requirement for maintaining thermal comfort, downsizing the AC/heating equipment, and shifting the peak load from the electrical grid. In this work we numerically studied the potential of PCM on energy saving for residential homes. For that purpose we solved the one-dimensional, transient heat equation through the multi-layered building envelope using the Crank–Nicolson discretization scheme. A source term is incorporated to account for the thermal-physical properties of the composite PCM wallboard. Using this code we examined a PCM composite wallboard incorporated into the walls and roof of a typical residential building across various climate zones. The PCM performance was studied under all seasonal conditions using the latest typical meteorological year (TMY3) data for exterior boundary conditions. Our simulations show that PCM performance highly depends on the weather conditions, emphasizing the necessity to choose different PCMs at different climate zones. Comparisons were also made between different PCM wallboard locations. Our work shows that there exists an optimal location for PCM placement within building envelope dependent upon the resistance values between the PCM layer and the exterior boundary conditions. We further

  5. How sensitive are nanosecond molecular dynamics simulations of proteins to changes in the force field?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Villa, Alessandra; Fan, Hao; Wassenaar, Tsjerk; Mark, Alan E.

    2007-01-01

    The sensitivity of molecular dynamics simulations to variations in the force field has been examined in relation to a set of 36 structures corresponding to 31 proteins simulated by using different versions of the GROMOS force field. The three parameter sets used (43a1, 53a5, and 53a6) differ

  6. Approaches to incorporating climate change effects in state and transition simulation models of vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Miles A. Hemstrom; David Conklin; Gabriel I. Yospin; Bart Johnson; Dominique Bachelet; Scott Bridgham

    2012-01-01

    Understanding landscape vegetation dynamics often involves the use of scientifically-based modeling tools that are capable of testing alternative management scenarios given complex ecological, management, and social conditions. State-and-transition simulation model (STSM) frameworks and software such as PATH and VDDT are commonly used tools that simulate how landscapes...

  7. Simulated Driving Changes in Young Adults with ADHD Receiving Mixed Amphetamine Salts Extended Release and Atomoxetine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Gary G.; Michaels, M. Alex; Pakull, Barton

    2009-01-01

    Background: Psychostimulant treatment may improve simulated driving performance in young adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Method: This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study of simulated driving performance with mixed amphetamine salts--extended release (MAS XR) 50 mg/day (Cohort 1) and…

  8. A simulation model for seasonal changes in dormancy and germination of weed seeds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vleeshouwers, L.M.; Bouwmeester, H.J.

    2001-01-01

    A model has been developed to simulate the annual dormancy cycle of seeds of light-requiring species in the seed bank and the germination of exhumed seeds after irradiation. Simulation of dormancy and germination is based on a physiological model concerning the action of phytochrome in the seed.

  9. Preparing FCS Professionals: Using Simulations to Raise Awareness and Change Stereotypes, Prejudice, and Discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiden, Kathleen; Harpel, Tammy

    2013-01-01

    Many universities offer courses in multiculturalism to broaden students' perspectives, but are the courses effective? This article explores the effects of using simulations to raise awareness and challenge students' perspectives of stereotypes, prejudice, and discrimination. The results of three simulation activities are presented. Three…

  10. The Potential of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation on Serial Monitoring of Hemodynamic Change in Type B Aortic Dissection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Simon C. H., E-mail: simonyu@cuhk.edu.hk; Liu, Wen [The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Imaging and Interventional Radiology, Prince of Wales Hospital (Hong Kong); Wong, Randolph H. L.; Underwood, Malcolm [The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Prince of Wales Hospital (Hong Kong); Wang, Defeng [The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Imaging and Interventional Radiology, Prince of Wales Hospital (Hong Kong)

    2016-08-15

    PurposeWe aimed to assess the potential of computational fluid dynamics simulation (CFD) in detecting changes in pressure and flow velocity in response to morphological changes in type B aortic dissection.Materials and MethodsPressure and velocity in four morphological models of type B aortic dissection before and after closure of the entry tear were calculated with CFD and analyzed for changes among the different scenarios. The control model (Model 1) was patient specific and built from the DICOM data of CTA, which bore one entry tear and three re-entry tears. Models 2–4 were modifications of Model 1, with two re-entry tears less in Model 2, one re-entry tear more in Model 3, and a larger entry tear in Model 4.ResultsThe pressure and velocity pertaining to each of the morphological models were unique. Changes in pressure and velocity findings were accountable by the changes in morphological features of the different models. There was no blood flow in the false lumen across the entry tear after its closure, the blood flow direction across the re-entry tears was reversed after closure of the entry tear.ConclusionCFD simulation is probably useful to detect hemodynamic changes in the true and false lumens of type B aortic dissection in response to morphological changes, it may potentially be developed into a non-invasive and patient-specific tool for serial monitoring of hemodynamic changes of type B aortic dissection before and after treatment.

  11. Changes in DNA methylation fingerprint of Quercus ilex trees in response to experimental field drought simulating projected climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, L; Ogaya, R; Barbeta, A; Peñuelas, J

    2014-03-01

    Rapid genetic changes in plants have been reported in response to current climate change. We assessed the capacity of trees in a natural forest to produce rapid acclimation responses based on epigenetic modifications. We analysed natural populations of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests, using the methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism (MSAP) technique to assess patterns and levels of methylation in individuals from unstressed forest plots and from plots experimentally exposed to drought for 12 years at levels projected for the coming decades. The percentage of hypermethylated loci increased, and the percentage of fully methylated loci clearly decreased in plants exposed to drought. Multivariate analyses exploring the status of methylation at MSAP loci also showed clear differentiation depending on stress. The PCA scores for the MSAP profiles clearly separated the genetic from the epigenetic structure, and also significantly separated the samples within each group in response to drought. Changes in DNA methylation highlight the large capacity of plants to rapidly acclimate to changing environmental conditions, including trees with long life spans, and our results demonstrate those changes. These changes, although unable to prevent the decreased growth and higher mortality associated with this experimental drought, occurred together with a dampening in such decreases as the long-term treatment progressed. © 2013 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  12. The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, Marika M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne [University of Colorado, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. (orig.)

  13. Simulation of Runoff Changes Caused by Cropland to Forest Conversion in the Upper Yangtze River Region, SW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Pengtao; Wang, Yanhui; Coles, Neil; Xiong, Wei; Xu, Lihong

    2015-01-01

    The "Grain for Green Project" is a country-wide ecological program to converse marginal cropland to forest, which has been implemented in China since 2002. To quantify influence of this significant vegetation change, Guansihe Hydrological (GSH) Model, a validated physically-based distributed hydrological model, was applied to simulate runoff responses to land use change in the Guansihe watershed that is located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin in Southwestern China with an area of only 21.1 km2. Runoff responses to two single rainfall events, 90 mm and 206 mm respectively, were simulated for 16 scenarios of cropland to forest conversion. The model simulations indicated that the total runoff generated after conversion to forest was strongly dependent on whether the land was initially used for dry croplands without standing water in fields or constructed (or walled) paddy fields. The simulated total runoff generated from the two rainfall events displayed limited variation for the conversion of dry croplands to forest, while it strongly decreased after paddy fields were converted to forest. The effect of paddy terraces on runoff generation was dependent on the rainfall characteristics and antecedent moisture (or saturation) conditions in the fields. The reduction in simulated runoff generated from intense rainfall events suggested that afforestation and terracing might be effective in managing runoff and had the potential to mitigate flooding in southwestern China. PMID:26192181

  14. Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

  15. Simulation of land use change in the three gorges reservoir area based on CART-CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Min

    2018-05-01

    This study proposes a new method to simulate spatiotemporal complex multiple land uses by using classification and regression tree algorithm (CART) based CA model. In this model, we use classification and regression tree algorithm to calculate land class conversion probability, and combine neighborhood factor, random factor to extract cellular transformation rules. The overall Kappa coefficient is 0.8014 and the overall accuracy is 0.8821 in the land dynamic simulation results of the three gorges reservoir area from 2000 to 2010, and the simulation results are satisfactory.

  16. The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

    2011-09-01

    Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

  17. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  18. Simulate the Effect of Climate Change on Development, Irrigation Requirements and Soybean Yield in Gorgan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.R. Nehbandani

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Atmospheric CO2 concentration has continuously been increasing during the past century and it is expected to increase from current 384 ppm to 550 ppm in 2050. This increase is expected to increase global temperature by 1.4 to 5.8 oC which can have major effects on crop plants. Since both CO2 and temperature are among the most important environmental variables that regulate physiological and phenological processes in plants, it is critical to evaluate the effects of CO2 and air temperature on the growth and yield of key crop plants. Warming of Earth's atmosphere can increase dark respiration and photorespiration in C3 plants. Rate of photosynthesis is affected by temperature, Therefore, rate of biochemical reactions, morphological reactions, CO2 and energy exchange with the atmosphere could be affected by temperature. Increase in CO2 concentration causes further yield improvement in C3 plants (Such as wheat, rice and soybeans in comparison with C4 plants (Such as corn, sorghum and sugarcane. In general, increasing CO2 concentration affects plant processes in two ways:direct effect on physiological processes in plant and indirect effect by changes in temperature and rainfall. Studying climate change effects including increase in temperature and CO2 concentration can help understanding adaptation strategies to reach higher and sustainable crop yields. Therefore, the objective of this research was to examine the effects of temperature and CO2 changes on days to maturity, irrigation water requirement, and yield in soybean under irrigation conditions of Gorganusing SSM-iLegume-Soybean model. Materials and methods: The model SSM-iLegume-Soybean simulates phenological development, leaf development and senescence, crop mass production and partitioning, plant nitrogen balance, yield formation and soil water and nitrogen balances. The model includes responses of crop processes to environmental factors of solar radiation, temperature and

  19. Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cerri, C.E.P.; Easter, M.; Paustian, K.; Killian, K.; Coleman, K.; Bernoux, M.; Falloon, P.; Powlson, D.S.; Batjes, N.H.; Milne, E.; Cerri, C.C.

    2007-01-01

    Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of

  20. Simulating low frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 during the last 740 000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Köhler

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric CO2 measured in Antarctic ice cores shows a natural variability of 80 to 100 ppmv during the last four glacial cycles and variations of approximately 60 ppmv in the two cycles between 410 and 650 kyr BP. We here use various paleo-climatic records from the EPICA Dome C Antarctic ice core and from oceanic sediment cores covering the last 740 kyr to force the ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box model of the global carbon cycle BICYCLE in a forward mode over this time in order to interpret the natural variability of CO2. Our approach is based on the previous interpretation of carbon cycle variations during Termination I (Köhler et al., 2005a. In the absense of a process-based sediment module one main simplification of BICYCLE is that carbonate compensation is approximated by the temporally delayed restoration of deep ocean [CO32−]. Our results match the low frequency changes in CO2 measured in the Vostok and the EPICA Dome C ice core for the last 650 kyr BP (r2≈0.75. During these transient simulations the carbon cycle reaches never a steady state due to the ongoing variability of the overall carbon budget caused by the time delayed response of the carbonate compensation to other processes. The average contributions of different processes to the rise in CO2 during Terminations I to V and during earlier terminations are: the rise in Southern Ocean vertical mixing: 36/22 ppmv, the rise in ocean temperature: 26/11 ppmv, iron limitation of the marine biota in the Southern Ocean: 20/14 ppmv, carbonate compensation: 15/7 ppmv, the rise in North Atlantic deep water formation: 13/0 ppmv, the rise in gas exchange due to a decreasing sea ice cover: −8/−7 ppmv, sea level rise: −12/−4 ppmv, and rising terrestrial carbon storage: −13/−6 ppmv. According to our model the smaller interglacial CO2 values in the pre-Vostok period prior to Termination V are mainly caused by smaller interglacial Southern Ocean SST and an Atlantic THC which stayed

  1. Simulating the effect of land use and climate change on upland soil carbon stock of Wales using ECOSSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani Nayak, Dali; Gottschalk, Pia; Evans, Chris; Smith, Pete; Smith, Jo

    2010-05-01

    Within Wales soils hold between 400-500 MtC, over half of this carbon is stored in organic and organo-mineral soil which cover less than 20% of the land area of Wales. It has been predicted that climate change will increasingly have an impact on the C stock of soils in Wales. Higher temperatures will increase the rate of decomposition of organic matter, leading to increased C losses. However increased net primary production (NPP), leading to increased inputs of organic matter, may offset this. Land use plays a major role in determining the level of soil C and the direction of change in status (soil as a source or sink). We present here an assessment of the effect of land use change and climate change on the upland soil carbon stock of Wales in 3 different catchments i.e. Migneint, Plynlimon and Pontbren using a process-based model of soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, ECOSSE. The uncertainties introduced in the simulations by using only the data available at national scale are determined. The ECOSSE model (1,2) has been developed to simulate greenhouse gas emissions from both organic and mineral soils. ECOSSE was derived from RothC (3) and SUNDIAL (4,5) and predicts the impacts of changes in land use and climate on emissions and soil carbon stock. Simulated changes in soil C are dependent on the type of land use change, the soil type where the land use change is occurring, and the C content of soil under the initial and final land uses. At Migneint and Plynlimon, the major part of the losses occurs due to the conversion of semi-natural land to grassland. Reducing the land use change from semi-natural to grassland is the main measure needed to mitigate losses of soil C. At Pontbren, the model predicts a net gain in soil C with the predicted land use change, so there is no need to mitigate. Simulations of future changes in soil C to 2050 showed very small changes in soil C due to climate compared to changes due to land use change. At the selected catchments, changes

  2. Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsson, Jonas; Yang, Wei; Graham, L. Phil; Rosberg, Joergen; Andreasson, Johan (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)), e-mail: jonas.olsson@smhi.se

    2011-01-15

    Lake Vaenern and River Goeta aelv in southern Sweden constitute a large and complex hydrological system that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, an ensemble of 12 regional climate projections is used to simulate the inflow to Lake Vaenern by the HBV hydrological model. By using distribution based scaling of the climate model output, all projections can accurately reproduce the annual cycle of mean monthly inflows for the period 1961-1990 as simulated using HBV with observed temperature and precipitation ('HBVobs'). Significant changes towards higher winter inflow and a reduced spring flood were found when comparing the period 1991-2008 to 1961-1990 in the HBVobs simulations and the ability of the regional projections to reproduce these changes varied. The main uncertainties in the projections for 1991-2008 were found to originate from the global climate model used, including its initialization, and in one case, the emissions scenario, whereas the regional climate model used and its resolution showed a smaller influence. The projections that most accurately reproduce the recent change suggest that the current trends in the winter and spring inflows will continue over the period 2009-2030

  3. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian W. Miller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM. SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis. We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  4. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Brian W.; Frid, Leonardo; Chang, Tony; Piekielek, N. B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2015-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM). SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis). We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae), and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  5. WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    Changing climate and hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are among the most severe challenges to Africa in the 21st century. In particular West Africa faces an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with negative impacts on humans and environment due to climate change, increased hydro-meteorological variability and land use changes. To help meet these challenges, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) started an initiative with institutions in Germany and West African countries to establish together a West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). This activity is accompanied by an establishment of trans-boundary observation networks, an interdisciplinary core research program and graduate research programs on climate change and related issues for strengthening the analytical capabilities of the Science Service Center. A key research activity of the WASCAL Competence Center is the provision of regional climate simulations in a fine spatio-temporal resolution for the core research sites of WASCAL for the present and the near future. The climate information is needed for subsequent local climate impact studies in agriculture, water resources and further socio-economic sectors. The simulation experiments are performed using regional climate models such as COSMO-CLM, RegCM and WRF and statistical techniques for a further refinement of the projections. The core research sites of WASCAL are located in the Sudanian Savannah belt in Northern Ghana, Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. The climate in this region is semi-arid with six rainy months. Due to the strong population growth in West Africa, many areas of the Sudanian Savannah have been already converted to farmland since the majority of the people are living directly or indirectly from the income produced in agriculture. The simulation experiments of the Competence Center and the Core Research Program are

  6. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  7. Simulation of environmental change in response to operation of dams in Huaihe Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Jiang

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the model simulation of a portion of the Huaihe Basin upstream of the river mouth at Hongze Lake, with an area of 130 520 km2. The MIKE 11 modeling system was used to assess the flows and water quality in the Huaihe, Shayinghe, Honghe, Guohe, and Pihe rivers. The hydraulic part of the model was used to study the propagation of flows in the Huaihe River, which was calibrated with data from 2002–2003 and verified with data from 2004–2005. In general, there was agreement between measured and simulated discharges at all the hydrological stations. Except for some places close to large gates, there was reasonable agreement between measured and simulated water levels in the simulated rivers. The MIKE 11 WQ (water quality model was used to study general sanitary parameters describing the river water quality in areas influenced by human activities. The water quality model simulated dissolved oxygen (DO, chemical oxygen demand (COD and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N. The difference between the simulated and observed concentrations was within the range that could be expected from water quality modeling, taking into account uncertainties such as pollution loads, and monitoring and sampling frequency. This model setup was also suitable for the subsequent scenario modeling of periods of water project operation. In the simulation of the Pihe River, increasing the discharge at Hengpaitou Dam was shown to cause a significant improvement in water quality downstream of Lu'an City. In the Shayinghe and Huaihe rivers, the effect was less visible. This suggests that the poor water quality in the Huaihe Basin is mainly caused by extensive discharge of domestic and industrial wastewater.

  8. Using discrete event simulation to change from a functional layout to a cellular layout in an auto parts industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Buselato Maurício

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a discrete event simulation employed in a Brazilian automotive company. There was a huge waste caused by one family scrap. It was believed one reason was the company functional layout. In this case, changing from current to cellular layout, employee synergy and knowledge about this family would increase. Due to the complexity for dimensioning a new cellular layout, mainly because of batch size and client’s demand variation. In this case, discrete event simulation was used, which made possible to introduce those effects improving accuracy in final results. This accuracy will be shown by comparing results obtained with simulation and without it (as company used to do. To conclude, cellular layout was responsible for increasing 15% of productivity, reducing lead-time in 7 days and scrap in 15% for this family.

  9. Simulating vegetation response to climate change in the Blue Mountains with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John B. Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Warming temperatures are projected to greatly alter many forests in the Pacific Northwest. MC2 is a dynamic global vegetation model, a climate-aware, process-based, and gridded vegetation model. We calibrated and ran MC2 simulations for the Blue Mountains Ecoregion, Oregon, USA, at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. We calibrated MC2 using the best available spatial datasets from land managers. We ran future simulations using climate projections from four global circulation models (GCM under representative concentration pathway 8.5. Under this scenario, forest productivity is projected to increase as the growing season lengthens, and fire occurrence is projected to increase steeply throughout the century, with burned area peaking early- to mid-century. Subalpine forests are projected to disappear, and the coniferous forests to contract by 32.8%. Large portions of the dry and mesic forests are projected to convert to woodlands, unless precipitation were to increase. Low levels of change are projected for the Umatilla National Forest consistently across the four GCM’s. For the Wallowa-Whitman and the Malheur National Forest, forest conversions are projected to vary more across the four GCM-based simulations, reflecting high levels of uncertainty arising from climate. For simulations based on three of the four GCMs, sharply increased fire activity results in decreases in forest carbon stocks by the mid-century, and the fire activity catalyzes widespread biome shift across the study area. We document the full cycle of a structured approach to calibrating and running MC2 for transparency and to serve as a template for applications of MC2. Keywords: Climate change, Regional change, Simulation, Calibration, Forests, Fire, Dynamic global vegetation model

  10. Simulated Benefits of Green Infrastructure for Urban Stormwater Management under Climate Change in Different Hydroclimatic and Archetypal Urban Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, T. E.; Butcher, J.; Sarkar, S.; Clark, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change could significantly alter the occurrence and management of urban stormwater runoff quantity and quality. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of potential changes together with the effectiveness of management responses for reducing impacts under range of potential future climatic conditions. Traditional gray stormwater infrastructure generally uses single-purpose, hard structures including detention basins and storm sewers to dispose of rainwater. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation and soil to manage rainwater where it falls. GI has been gaining in popularity, and has been shown to provide a number of benefits for adapting to climate change including effects on stormwater quantity, quality and carbon and nutrient biogeochemical cycling. Uncertainty remains, however, due to limited understanding of GI performance in different hydroclimatic and urban settings, and in response to changes in climate. In this study we use simulation modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on both gray (wet ponds) and green infrastructure practices (green roofs, swales, bioretention) in different hydroclimatic and urban settings. Simulations were conducted using RHESSYs, a mechanistic, hydrologic and biogeochemical model, for 36 characteristic urban "archetypes" (AUSs) representing different development patterns and GI practices found in typical U.S. cities. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically and temporally downscaled, mid-21st century climate model output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results suggest altered mass and energy inputs will cause changes in performance of these practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration that vary across the country. Infrastructure design should take these potential changes into consideration.

  11. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  12. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

    2017-12-01

    A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

  13. Changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by construction of a simulated waste trench at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shakofsky, S.

    1995-03-01

    In order to assess the effect of filled waste disposal trenches on transport-governing soil properties, comparisons were made between profiles of undisturbed soil and disturbed soil in a simulated waste trench. The changes in soil properties induced by the construction of a simulated waste trench were measured near the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) in the semiarid southeast region of Idaho. The soil samples were collected, using a hydraulically-driven sampler to minimize sample disruption, from both a simulated waste trench and an undisturbed area nearby. Results show that the undisturbed profile has distinct layers whose properties differ significantly, whereas the soil profile in the simulated waste trench is, by comparison, homogeneous. Porosity was increased in the disturbed cores, and, correspondingly, saturated hydraulic conductivities were on average three times higher. With higher soil-moisture contents (greater than 0.32), unsaturated hydraulic conductivities for the undisturbed cores were typically greater than those for the disturbed cores. With lower moisture contents, most of the disturbed cores had greater hydraulic conductivities. The observed differences in hydraulic conductivities are interpreted and discussed as changes in the soil pore geometry

  14. Tracking Ionic Rearrangements and Interpreting Dynamic Volumetric Changes in Two-Dimensional Metal Carbide Supercapacitors: A Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kui; Lin, Zifeng; Merlet, Céline; Taberna, Pierre-Louis; Miao, Ling; Jiang, Jianjun; Simon, Patrice

    2017-12-06

    We present a molecular dynamics simulation study achieved on two-dimensional (2D) Ti 3 C 2 T x MXenes in the ionic liquid 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([EMIM] + [TFSI] - ) electrolyte. Our simulations reproduce the different patterns of volumetric change observed experimentally for both the negative and positive electrodes. The analysis of ionic fluxes and structure rearrangements in the 2D material provide an atomic scale insight into the charge and discharge processes in the layer pore and confirm the existence of two different charge-storage mechanisms at the negative and positive electrodes. The ionic number variation and the structure rearrangement contribute to the dynamic volumetric changes of both electrodes: negative electrode expansion and positive electrode contraction. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. The Arctic Vegetation Type Change retrieved from Spaceborne Observations and its Influence on the Simulation of Permafrost Thawing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Wang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The vegetation types change in Arctic has been studied using 10 years of MODIS land cover product (MCD12Q1). The shrub expansion is observed in Alaska and Northeast Asia, while shrub fraction decreases in North Canada and Southwest Arctic Eurasia. The total Arctic shrub fraction increases 3% in 10 years. The tundra decreases where the shrub expands, and thrives where the shrub retreats. In order to isolate the influence of the vegetation dynamic on the permafrost thawing, the Arctic terrestrial ecosystem in recent decades will be simulated using the Community Land Model (CLM) with and without the vegetation type changes. The energy and carbon exchange on the land surface will also be simulated and compared. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI, PN17081) and the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800).

  16. Effectiveness of a poverty simulation in Second Life®: changing nursing student attitudes toward poor people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, Nancy; Willson, Laura Helen; Doolen, Jessica

    2014-03-11

    Social justice is a fundamental value of the nursing profession, challenging educators to instill this professional value when caring for the poor. This randomized controlled trial examined whether an interactive virtual poverty simulation created in Second Life® would improve nursing students' empathy with and attributions for people living in poverty, compared to a self-study module. We created a multi-user virtual environment populated with families and individual avatars that represented the demographics contributing to poverty and vulnerability. Participants (N = 51 baccalaureate nursing students) were randomly assigned to either Intervention or Control groups and completed the modified Attitudes toward Poverty Scale pre- and post-intervention. The 2.5-hour simulation was delivered three times over a 1-year period to students in successive community health nursing classes. The investigators conducted post-simulation debriefings following a script. While participants in the virtual poverty simulation developed significantly more favorable attitudes on five questions than the Control group, the total scores did not differ significantly. Whereas students readily learned how to navigate inside Second Life®, faculty facilitators required periodic coaching and guidance to be competent. While poverty simulations, whether virtual or face-to-face, have some ability to transform nursing student attitudes, faculty must incorporate social justice concepts throughout the curriculum to produce lasting change.

  17. Biological consequences of environmental changes related to coastal upwelling: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howe, S.O.

    1979-05-01

    Two simulation models of marine ecosystem dynamics are formulated and applied to field data. The first is a time-dependent model of phytoplankton growth in nutrient-enriched batch cultures where spatial gradients of dependent variables and the effects of higher tropic level processes are not included. Rates of photosynthesis, nutrient uptake, chlorophyll synthesis and cell division for a single phytoplankton functional group are simulated as functions of photosynthetically active solar radiation, dissolved nutrient concentrations and cell quotas of carbon, nitrogen and silica. The second model combines the phytoplankton growth model with a time dependent, two-dimensional model of coastal upwelling off northwest Africa.

  18. Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, R; Sentelhas, P C; Boote, K J

    2018-05-01

    Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO 2 ] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha -1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO 2 ] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO 2 .

  19. Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

  20. Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

    2018-05-01

    Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

  1. Simulation of Impacts of Changing in the International Standard of Financial Instruments (IFRS 9 in the Major Brazilian Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Sayed

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This article aimed to verify the impact of changes in the net profit and their respective volatilities resulting from changes of the international standard of financial instruments, from IAS 39 to IFRS 9, in regard to aspects: (i the future change in the methodology of the impairment calculated e (ii the elimination of the category "available for sale" and their reclassification to the category "fair value through profit or loss". The study was based on simulations in profits expected to sixteen quarters, from 31/12/2010 to 31/12/2014, to the five largest financial institutions in Brazil. For such simulations it were projected interest rates that fluctuate according to the estimated model of the term structure of interest rates using the Monte Carlo method. According to the projected interest rates set new credit risk levels, which resulted changes in the impairment and fair value of financial assets previously classified as available for sale. The results showed an early impact in Q1, in view of their adaptation to the new standard. Subsequently, there was no significant change in the results and their respective volatilities.

  2. Shift of biome patterns due to simulated climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Claussen, M.

    1993-01-01

    The variability of simulated equilibrium-response patterns of biomes caused by simulated climate variability and climate shift is analysed. This investigation is based on various realisations of simulated present-day climate and climate shift. It has been found that the difference between biomes computed from three 10-year climatologies and from the corresponding 30-year climatology, simulated by the Hamburg climate model at T21 resolution, amounts to approximately 6% of the total land area, Antarctica excluded. This difference is mainly due to differences in annual moisture availability and winter temperatures. When intercomparing biomes from the 10-year climatologies a 10% difference is seen, but there is no unique difference pattern. In contrast to the interdecadal variability, the shift of conditions favorable for biomes due to a shift in climate in the next 100 years, caused by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 , reveals a unique trend pattern. It turns out that the strongest and most significant signal is the north-east shift of conditions for boreal biomes. This signal is caused by an increase of annual temperature sums as well as mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months. Trends in annual moisture availability are of secondary importance globally. Regionally, a decrease in water availability affects biomes in Central and East Europe and an increase of water availability leads to a potential increase in tropical rain forest. In total, all differences amount to roughly 30% of the total land surface, Antarctica excluded. (orig./KW)

  3. Sensitivity of vertical jumping performance to changes in muscle stimulation onset times: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bobbert, M.F.; van Zandwijk, J.P.

    1999-01-01

    The effect of muscle stimulation dynamics on the sensitivity of jumping achievement to variations in timing of muscle stimulation onsets was investigated. Vertical squat jumps were simulated using a forward dynamic model of the human musculoskeletal system. The model calculates the motion of body

  4. Mechanism change in a simulation of peer review: from junk support to elitism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paolucci, Mario; Grimaldo, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Peer review works as the hinge of the scientific process, mediating between research and the awareness/acceptance of its results. While it might seem obvious that science would regulate itself scientifically, the consensus on peer review is eroding; a deeper understanding of its workings and potential alternatives is sorely needed. Employing a theoretical approach supported by agent-based simulation, we examined computational models of peer review, performing what we propose to call redesign , that is, the replication of simulations using different mechanisms . Here, we show that we are able to obtain the high sensitivity to rational cheating that is present in literature. In addition, we also show how this result appears to be fragile against small variations in mechanisms. Therefore, we argue that exploration of the parameter space is not enough if we want to support theoretical statements with simulation, and that exploration at the level of mechanisms is needed. These findings also support prudence in the application of simulation results based on single mechanisms, and endorse the use of complex agent platforms that encourage experimentation of diverse mechanisms.

  5. Changes in nutrient, dissolved oxygen and total suspended matter during simulated placer mining

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sijinkumar, A.V.; Naik, T.; Nath, B.N.; Sharma, R.

    In order to study the impact of placer mining on shallow coastal waters, a simulated sand mining experiment was carried out in Kalbadevi, Ratnagiri, west coast of India, which is recognized as one of the future sand mining sites. Water column...

  6. Metabolic changes in four beat gaited horses after field marcha simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanderley, E K; Manso Filho, H C; Manso, H E C C C; Santiago, T A; McKeever, K H

    2010-11-01

    Mangalarga-Marchador is a popular 4-gaited Brazilian horse breed; however, there is little information about their metabolic and physiological response to exercise. To measure physiological and metabolic responses of the Mangalarga-Marchador to a simulated marcha field test and to compare these responses between 2 types of marcha gaits (picada and batida). Thirteen horses were used in the study and randomly assigned to either the picada or batida gait for the simulated marcha field test (speed ∼ 3.2 m/s; 30 min; load ∼ 80 kg). Included body composition, heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), glucose (GLUC), lactate (LACT), packed cell volume (PCV), total plasma protein (TPP), albumin, urea, creatinine, total and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, creatine kinase, alanine, glutamate and glutamine (GLN). Measurements were obtained pretest (control/fasting), immediately after simulation (T(0)), and 15 (T(15)), 30 (T(30)) and 240 (T(240)) min after the simulation. Lactate (LACT) was measured at T(0), T(15) and T(30). Data were analysed using ANOVA, Tukey's test and t tests with significance set at P marcha types and time of sampling for HR, RF, PCV, and [LACT] (P marcha horses, with some degree of dehydration during recovery period. Also, it was demonstrated that picada horses spend more energy when compared with batida horses at the the same speed. Batida horses spend less energy when compared with picada horses, which will need special attention in their training and nutritional management. © 2010 EVJ Ltd.

  7. Vertical Motion Changes Related to North-East Brazil Rainfall Variability: a GCM Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roucou, Pascal; Oribe Rocha de Aragão, José; Harzallah, Ali; Fontaine, Bernard; Janicot, Serge

    1996-08-01

    The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970- 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationships in the simulation than in the observations. This is particularly true with the SST gradient in the Atlantic (Atlantic dipole). Analyses on 200 ;hPa velocity potential, vertical velocity, and vertical integral of the zonal component of mass flux are performed for years of abnormal rainfall and positive/negative SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans in March-April during the rainy season over the Nordeste region. The results at 200 hPa show a convergence anomaly over Nordeste and a divergence anomaly over the Pacific concomitant with dry seasons associated with warm SST anomalies in the Pacific and warm (cold) waters in the North (South) Atlantic. During drought years convection inside the ITCZ indicated by the vertical velocity exhibits a displacement of the convection zone corresponding to a northward migration of the ITCZ. The east-west circulation depicted by the zonal divergent mass flux shows subsiding motion over Nordeste and ascending motion over the Pacific in drought years, accompanied by warm waters in the eastern Pacific and warm/cold waters in northern/southern Atlantic. Rainfall variability of the Nordeste rainfall is linked mainly to vertical motion and SST variability through the migration of the ITCZ and the east-west circulation.

  8. Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerklie, David M.; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Cahillane, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds.

  9. Simulation of steady states of an integral PWR and power change transients using RELAP5 MOD3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aronne, Ivan Dionysio Aronne; Palmieri, Elcio Tadeu; Azwvedo, Carlos Vicente Goulart de; Baptista Filho, Benedito Dias; Barroso, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

    2005-01-01

    An integral pressurized water reactor presents several differences in relation to conventional PWRs. The metal and cooling fluid masses of integral reactors are larger than those of a conventional reactor and, on the other hand, bombs tend to be smaller and the pressurizer should present characteristics proper of that arrangement. These characteristics, representing inertias different from the usual ones, makes obtaining the stationary state of the integral reactor a task with particularities that demand strategies different from the usually employed. This paper presents, initially, the main physical characteristics of the reactor in study and then the options adopted in developing the model and that were used to obtain the simulation of stationary states with the code RELAP5-MOD3. The results of the simulation of the steady state show the effects of the fore mentioned differences, where the times lags are significantly larger, as well as the suitability and efficiency of the defined approach. Two transients were simulated for changing the reactor power from steady state power of 100% to steady state power of 90%. The power change of these transients were one in step and the other in ramp with a rate of 5%/min. These calculations represent a first step for the definition and tests of parts of a preliminary control system for this reactor. The two transient simulated were based on plausible control hypotheses whose results are presented and commented. The final objective of this study is the use of results of simulations of steady states as much as of transients in support to the development of a transient identification and classification system, based on a neural network using self organizing maps whose basic proposition is presented in this paper. (author)

  10. Internet of Things: a possible change in the distributed modeling and simulation architecture paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riecken, Mark; Lessmann, Kurt; Schillero, David

    2016-05-01

    The Data Distribution Service (DDS) was started by the Object Management Group (OMG) in 2004. Currently, DDS is one of the contenders to support the Internet of Things (IoT) and the Industrial IOT (IIoT). DDS has also been used as a distributed simulation architecture. Given the anticipated proliferation of IoT and II devices, along with the explosive growth of sensor technology, can we expect this to have an impact on the broader community of distributed simulation? If it does, what is the impact and which distributed simulation domains will be most affected? DDS shares many of the same goals and characteristics of distributed simulation such as the need to support scale and an emphasis on Quality of Service (QoS) that can be tailored to meet the end user's needs. In addition, DDS has some built-in features such as security that are not present in traditional distributed simulation protocols. If the IoT and II realize their potential application, we predict a large base of technology to be built around this distributed data paradigm, much of which could be directly beneficial to the distributed M&S community. In this paper we compare some of the perceived gaps and shortfalls of current distributed M&S technology to the emerging capabilities of DDS built around the IoT. Although some trial work has been conducted in this area, we propose a more focused examination of the potential of these new technologies and their applicability to current and future problems in distributed M&S. The Internet of Things (IoT) and its data communications mechanisms such as the Data Distribution System (DDS) share properties in common with distributed modeling and simulation (M&S) and its protocols such as the High Level Architecture (HLA) and the Test and Training Enabling Architecture (TENA). This paper proposes a framework based on the sensor use case for how the two communities of practice (CoP) can benefit from one another and achieve greater capability in practical distributed

  11. Detecting small gravity change in field measurement: simulations and experiments of the superconducting gravimeter—iGrav

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kao, Ricky; Kabirzadeh, Hojjat; Kim, Jeong Woo; Neumeyer, Juergen; Sideris, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    In order to detect small gravity changes in field measurements, such as with CO 2  storage, we designed simulations and experiments to validate the capabilities of the iGrav superconducting gravimeter. Qualified data processing was important to obtain the residual gravity from the iGrav's raw gravity signals, without the tidal components, atmosphere, polar motion and hydrological effects. Two simulations and four designed experiments are presented in this study. The first simulation detected the gravity change during CO 2  injection. The residual gravity of CO 2  leakage was targeted with the second simulation from the main storage reservoir to secondary space underground. The designed experiments monitored the situation of gravity anomalies in the iGrav's records. These tests focused on short-term gravity anomalies, such as gravity changes, step functions, repeat observations and gradient measurements from the iGrav, rather than on long-term tidal effects. The four laboratory experiments detected a decrease in gravity of −0.56 ± 0.15 µGal (10 −8  m s −2 ) with a 92.8 kg weight on the top of the iGrav. A step function occurred in the gravity signals, when the tilt control was out of balance. We also used a professional camera dolly with a track to observe repeated horizontal movements and an electric lift table for controlled vertical movements to measure the average gradient of −2.67 ± 0.01 µGal cm −1 . (paper)

  12. Francis-99: Transient CFD simulation of load changes and turbine shutdown in a model sized high-head Francis turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mössinger, Peter; Jester-Zürker, Roland; Jung, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    With increasing requirements for hydropower plant operation due to intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, numerical simulations of transient operations in hydraulic turbo machines become more important. As a continuation of the work performed for the first workshop which covered three steady operating conditions, in the present paper load changes and a shutdown procedure are investigated. The findings of previous studies are used to create a 360° model and compare measurements with simulation results for the operating points part load, high load and best efficiency. A mesh motion procedure is introduced, allowing to represent moving guide vanes for load changes from best efficiency to part load and high load. Additionally an automated re-mesh procedure is added for turbine shutdown to ensure reliable mesh quality during guide vane closing. All three transient operations are compared to PIV velocity measurements in the draft tube and pressure signals in the vaneless space. Simulation results of axial velocity distributions for all three steady operation points, during both load changes and for the shutdown correlated well with the measurement. An offset at vaneless space pressure is found to be a result of guide vane corrections for the simulation to ensure similar velocity fields. Short-time Fourier transformation indicating increasing amplitudes and frequencies at speed-no load conditions. Further studies will discuss the already measured start-up procedure and investigate the necessity to consider the hydraulic system dynamics upstream of the turbine by means of a 1D3D coupling between the 3D flow field and a 1D system model. (paper)

  13. Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

    2017-12-01

    Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the

  14. Francis-99: Transient CFD simulation of load changes and turbine shutdown in a model sized high-head Francis turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mössinger, Peter; Jester-Zürker, Roland; Jung, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    With increasing requirements for hydropower plant operation due to intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar, numerical simulations of transient operations in hydraulic turbo machines become more important. As a continuation of the work performed for the first workshop which covered three steady operating conditions, in the present paper load changes and a shutdown procedure are investigated. The findings of previous studies are used to create a 360° model and compare measurements with simulation results for the operating points part load, high load and best efficiency. A mesh motion procedure is introduced, allowing to represent moving guide vanes for load changes from best efficiency to part load and high load. Additionally an automated re-mesh procedure is added for turbine shutdown to ensure reliable mesh quality during guide vane closing. All three transient operations are compared to PIV velocity measurements in the draft tube and pressure signals in the vaneless space. Simulation results of axial velocity distributions for all three steady operation points, during both load changes and for the shutdown correlated well with the measurement. An offset at vaneless space pressure is found to be a result of guide vane corrections for the simulation to ensure similar velocity fields. Short-time Fourier transformation indicating increasing amplitudes and frequencies at speed-no load conditions. Further studies will discuss the already measured start-up procedure and investigate the necessity to consider the hydraulic system dynamics upstream of the turbine by means of a 1D3D coupling between the 3D flow field and a 1D system model.

  15. Precipitation Change and Soil Leaching: Field Results and Simulations from Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.W. Johnson; P.J. Hanson; D.E. Todd; R.B. Susfalk; Carl C. Trettin

    1998-01-01

    Abstract. To investigate the potential effects of changing precipitation on a deciduous forest ecosystem, an experiment was established on Walker Branch Watershed, Tennessee that modified the amount of throughfall at 4 -33 %. ambient (no change), and +33 % using a system of rain gutters and sprinklers. We hypothesized that the drier treatments would...

  16. Hydraulic experiment on flow and topography change in harbor due to tsunami and its numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujii, Naoki; Ikeno, Masaaki; Sakakiyama, Tsutomu; Matsuyama, Masafumi; Takao, Makoto; Mukohara, Takeshi

    2009-01-01

    Numerical model of topography change is important to examine collapse of the harbor facilities by sand transport due to tsunami. Problems for evaluation of sand transport due to tsunami with topography change model are in precision of the numerical model and topography change data. Therefore, we installed the harbor in large-scaled wave tank and carried out experiment about tsunami flow and topography change to get those detailed data. For results provided by experimental test, we applied the topography change model of Ikeno et al. (2009a) and evaluated it about the reproduction characteristics. As a result, it was confirmed that reproduction of an experiment improved by using new pickup rate formula proposed by Ikeno et al. (2009a). (author)

  17. Lattice Boltzmann simulation of dissolution-induced changes in permeability and porosity in 3D CO2 reactive transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhiwei; Wang, Junye

    2018-02-01

    Dissolution and precipitation of rock matrix are one of the most important processes of geological CO2 sequestration in reservoirs. They change connections of pore channels and properties of matrix, such as bulk density, microporosity and hydraulic conductivity. This study builds on a recently developed multi-layer model to account for dynamic changes of microporous matrix that can accurately predict variations in hydraulic properties and reaction rates due to dynamic changes in matrix porosity and pore connectivity. We apply the model to simulate the dissolution and precipitation processes of rock matrix in heterogeneous porous media to quantify (1) the effect of the reaction rate on dissolution and matrix porosity, (2) the effect of microporous matrix diffusion on the overall effective diffusion and (3) the effect of heterogeneity on hydraulic conductivity. The results show the CO2 storage influenced by factors including the matrix porosity change, reaction front movement, velocity and initial properties. We also simulated dissolution-induced permeability enhancement as well as effects of initial porosity heterogeneity. The matrix with very low permeability, which can be unresolved on X-ray CT, do contribute to flow patterns and dispersion. The concentration of reactant H+ increases along the main fracture paths where the flow velocity increases. The product Ca++ shows the inversed distribution pattern against the H+ concentration. This demonstrates the capability of this model to investigate the complex CO2 reactive transport in real 3D heterogeneous porous media.

  18. Insight the C-site pocket conformational changes responsible for sirtuin 2 activity using molecular dynamics simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugunadevi Sakkiah

    Full Text Available Sirtuin belongs to a family of typical histone deacetylase which regulates the fundamental cellular biological processes including gene expression, genome stability, mitosis, nutrient metabolism, aging, mitochondrial function, and cell motility. Michael et. al. reported that B-site mutation (Q167A and H187A decreased the SIRT2 activity but still the structural changes were not reported. Hence, we performed 5 ns molecular dynamics (MD simulation on SIRT2 Apo-form and complexes with substrate/NAD(+ and inhibitor of wild type (WT, Q167A, and H187A. The results revealed that the assembly and disassembly of C-site induced by presence of substrate/NAD(+ and inhibitor, respectively. This assembly and disassembly was mainly due to the interaction between the substrate/NAD(+ and inhibitor and F96 and the distance between F96 and H187 which are present at the neck of the C-site. MD simulations suggest that the conformational change of L3 plays a major role in assembly and disassembly of C-site. Our current results strongly suggest that the distinct conformational change of L3 as well as the assembly and disassembly of C-site plays an important role in SIRT2 deacetylation function. Our study unveiled the structural changes of SIRT2 in presence of NAD(+ and inhibitor which should be helpful to improve the inhibitory potency of SIRT2.

  19. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  20. Idealized climate change simulations with a high-resolution physical model: HadGEM3-GC2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senior, Catherine A.; Andrews, Timothy; Burton, Chantelle; Chadwick, Robin; Copsey, Dan; Graham, Tim; Hyder, Pat; Jackson, Laura; McDonald, Ruth; Ridley, Jeff; Ringer, Mark; Tsushima, Yoko

    2016-06-01

    Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 3.1 K/3.2 K at N216/N96. These are substantially lower than HadGEM2-ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising from a combination of changes in the size of climate feedbacks. While the change in the net cloud feedback between HadGEM3 and HadGEM2 is relatively small, there is a change in sign of its longwave and a strengthening of its shortwave components. At a global scale, there is little impact of the increase in atmospheric resolution on the future climate change signal and even at a broad regional scale, many features are robust including tropical rainfall changes, however, there are some significant exceptions. For the North Atlantic and western Europe, the tripolar pattern of winter storm changes found in most CMIP5 models is little impacted by resolution but for the most intense storms, there is a larger percentage increase in number at higher resolution than at lower resolution. Arctic sea-ice sensitivity shows a larger dependence on resolution than on atmospheric physics.

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change on winter crop production in Uruguay and Argentina using crop simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baethgen, W.E. [International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals, AL (United States); Magrin, G.O. [Inst. Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Castelar, Buenos Aires (Argentina). Inst. de Clima y Agua

    1995-12-31

    Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, and +20%.

  2. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21. century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boysen, L.R.; Brovkin, V.; Pongratz, J.; Gayler, V.; Arora, V.K.; Cadule, P.; Noblet-Ducoudre, N. de; Kato, E.

    2014-01-01

    Bio-geophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC) are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO 2 simulations for the 21. century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs) are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC), contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, Identification of robust impacts (LUCID) project. Over the period 2006-2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO 2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between -0.47 and 0.10 K). Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO 2 -fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly) and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC. (authors)

  3. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  4. Deformation-induced structural changes of amorphous Ni0.5Zr0.5 in molecular-dynamic simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkmann, K.

    2006-01-01

    The present work investigates the plastic deformation of metallic glasses by the aid of molecular-dynamic simulations. The parameters for the model system are adapted to those for a NiZr-alloy. In particular, the composition Ni 0.5 Zr 0.5 is used. The analyzed deformation simulations are conducted for small systems with 5184 atoms and large systems with 17500 atoms in a periodic simulation cell. The deformation simulations of pre-deformed samples are carried out either at constant shear-rate or at constant load, the latter mode modeling a creep experiment. Stress-strain curves for pre-deformed samples show a less pronounced stress-overshoot phenomenon. Creep-simulations of samples deformed beyond the yield region indicate a drastically reduced viscosity in these systems when compared to samples pre-deformed only up to the linear regime of the stress-strain curve. From analyzing the local atomic topology it is found that the transition from the highly viscous, hard-to-deform state of the undeformed or only weakly strained system into the easy-to-deform flow-state, present if the system is strained far beyond the yielding regime of the stress-strain curve, is connected with the formation of a region containing atoms with massive changes in their topology which is oriented along a diagonal plane of the simulation cell. The degree of localization of these deformation bands is influenced by temperature and shear-rate. In subsequent deformations of pre-deformed samples the regions with massive changes in the atomic topology are again susceptible to changes in the local atomic topology. By using methods from statistics, a significant difference in the distribution of atomic properties for the group of atoms with massive topology changes on the one hand and the group of atoms without changes in their topology on the other gets quantitatively ascertainable. From the differences in structural properties, e.g. potential energy, cage volumes, angular order parameters or atomic

  5. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  6. A simulation of T-wave alternans vectocardiographic representation performed by changing the ventricular heart cells action potential duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janusek, D; Kania, M; Zaczek, R; Zavala-Fernandez, H; Maniewski, R

    2014-04-01

    The presence of T wave alternans (TWA) in the surface ECG signals has been recognized as a marker of electrical instability, and is hypothesized to be related to patients at increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias. In this paper we present a TWA simulation study. The TWA phenomenon was simulated by changing the duration of the ventricular heart cells action potential. The magnitude was calculated in the surface ECG with the use of the time domain method. The spatially concordant TWA, where during one heart beat all ventricular cells display a short-duration action potential and during the next beat they exhibit a long-duration action potential, as well as the discordant TWA, where at least one region is out of phase, was simulated. The vectocardiographic representation was employed. The obtained results showed a high level of T-loop pattern and location disturbances connected to the discordant TWA simulation in contrast to the concordant one. This result may be explained by the spatial heterogeneity of the ventricular repolarization process, which could be higher for the discordant TWA than for the concordant TWA. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

    2017-11-01

    Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

  8. Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, I.

    2006-01-01

    Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  9. Cross-shore profile and coastline changes of a sandy beach in Pieria, Greece, based on measurements and numerical simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.M. PROSPATHOPOULOS

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present work, the changes of cross-shore profile and the coastline of a sandy beach in Pieria, Greece, are studied by using topographic profiles, sediment analysis and a numerical simulation model. The work is motivated by the considerable erosion problems caused to an extended portion of the coast north of the studied area due to the construction of a craft shelter, and its scope is two-fold: to help in understanding the dynamics of the beach based on results of the field work and to proceed a step further, studying the responses of this beach by numerical simulation, utilizing the topographic and sediment field data and measured wave data. The study of the cross-shore profiles, as well as the sediment analysis of the samples obtained along the profiles, revealed the morphological features of the coast under study and provided information concerning the dynamic zones in each profile. The sediment grain size reduces from south to north, following the direction of the longshore currents generated in the area. The results of the numerical simulation concerning the coastline evolution are found to be in agreement with the qualitative estimations and visual observations of existing coastal changes to the broader area.

  10. Integrating Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics into State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Land Use/Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Fortin, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general approach for incorporating uncertainty into forecasts of landscape change. Using a Monte Carlo approach, STSMs generate spatially-explicit projections of the state of a landscape based upon probabilistic transitions defined between states. While STSMs are based on the basic principles of Markov chains, they have additional properties that make them applicable to a wide range of questions and types of landscapes. A current limitation of STSMs is that they are only able to track the fate of discrete state variables, such as land use/land cover (LULC) classes. There are some landscape modelling questions, however, for which continuous state variables - for example carbon biomass - are also required. Here we present a new approach for integrating continuous state variables into spatially-explicit STSMs. Specifically we allow any number of continuous state variables to be defined for each spatial cell in our simulations; the value of each continuous variable is then simulated forward in discrete time as a stochastic process based upon defined rates of change between variables. These rates can be defined as a function of the realized states and transitions of each cell in the STSM, thus providing a connection between the continuous variables and the dynamics of the landscape. We demonstrate this new approach by (1) developing a simple IPCC Tier 3 compliant model of ecosystem carbon biomass, where the continuous state variables are defined as terrestrial carbon biomass pools and the rates of change as carbon fluxes between pools, and (2) integrating this carbon model with an existing LULC change model for the state of Hawaii, USA.

  11. Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

    2002-12-01

    The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

  12. A simulation framework for asset management in climate-change adaptation of transportation infrastructure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bhamidipati, S.K.

    2014-01-01

    An asset management framework, in an agent-based model with multiple assets, is presented as a tool that can assist in developing long-term climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure.

  13. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic...

  14. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, M.; Skalák, Petr; Farda, Aleš; Halenka, T.; Déqué, M.; Csima, G.; Bartholy, J.; Torma, C.; Boroneant, C.; Caian, M.; Spiridonov, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 2015, č. 2015 (2015), s. 354727 ISSN 1687-9309 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : climate change * project Cecilia * modelling activities * aladin Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.107, year: 2015

  15. Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian Torres-Díaz

    Full Text Available Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1 How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2 Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09' S, and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53' S were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC. The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W and combined warming and watering (+T°+W. Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios.

  16. Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Gallardo-Cerda, Jorge; Lavin, Paris; Oses, Rómulo; Carrasco-Urra, Fernando; Atala, Cristian; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Convey, Peter; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A.

    2016-01-01

    Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1) How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water) differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2) Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09′ S), and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53′ S) were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC). The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W) significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W) and combined warming and watering (+T°+W). Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios. PMID:27776181

  17. Future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan by d4PDF regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, Y.; Ishii, M.; Endo, H.; Kawase, H.; Sasaki, H.; Takayabu, I.; Watanabe, S.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Kawazoe, S.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation in summer plays a vital role in sustaining life across East Asia, but the heavy rain that is often generated during this period can also cause serious damage. Developing a better understanding of the features and occurrence frequency of this heavy rain is an important element of disaster prevention. We investigated future changes in summer mean and extreme precipitation frequency in Japan using large ensemble dataset which simulated by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model with a horizontal resolution of 20km (NHRCM20). This dataset called database for Policy Decision making for Future climate changes (d4PDF), which is intended to be utilized for the impact assessment studies and adaptation planning to global warming. The future climate experiments assume the global mean surface air temperature rise 2K and 4K from the pre-industrial period. We investigated using this dataset future changes of precipitation in summer over the Japanese archipelago based on observational locations. For mean precipitation in the present-day climate, the bias of the rainfall for each month is within 25% even considering all members (30 members). The bias at each location is found to increase by over 50% on the Pacific Ocean side of eastern part of Japan and interior locations of western part of Japan. The result in western part of Japan depends on the effect of the elevations in this model. The future changes in mean precipitation show a contrast between northern and southern Japan, with the north showing a slight increase but the south a decrease. The future changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation in the national average of Japan increase at 2K and 4K simulations compared with the present-day climate, respectively. The authors were supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.

  18. Altered regional homogeneity with short-term simulated microgravity and its relationship with changed performance in mental transformation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liao

    Full Text Available In order to further the insight into the explanation of changed performance in mental transformation under microgravity, we discuss the change of performance in mental transformation and its relationship with altered regional homogeneity (ReHo in resting-state brain by using simulated weightlessness model. Twelve male subjects with age between 24 and 31 received resting-state fMRI scan and mental transformation test both in normal condition and immediately after 72 hours -6° head down tilt (HDT. A paired sample t-test was used to test the difference of behavior performance and brain activity between these two conditions. Compare with normal condition, subjects showed a changed performance in mental transformation with short term simulated microgravity and appeared to be falling. Meanwhile, decreased ReHo were found in right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG and left inferior parietal lobule (IPL after 72 hours -6° HDT, while increased ReHo were found in bilateral medial frontal gyrus (MFG and left superior frontal gyrus (SFG (P<0.05, corrected. Particularly, there was a significant correlation between ReHo values in left IPL and velocity index of mental transformation. Our findings indicate that gravity change may disrupt the function of right IFG and left IPL in the resting-state, among of which functional change in left IPL may contribute to changed abilities of mental transformation. In addition, the enhanced activity of the bilateral MFG and decreased activity of right IFG found in the current study maybe reflect a complementation effect on inhibitory control process.

  19. Employing Inquiry-Based Computer Simulations and Embedded Scientist Videos To Teach Challenging Climate Change and Nature of Science Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, E.

    2013-12-01

    Design based research was utilized to investigate how students use a greenhouse effect simulation in order to derive best learning practices. During this process, students recognized the authentic scientific process involving computer simulations. The simulation used is embedded within an inquiry-based technology-mediated science curriculum known as Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE). For this research, students from a suburban, diverse, middle school setting use the simulations as part of a two week-long class unit on climate change. A pilot study was conducted during phase one of the research that informed phase two, which encompasses the dissertation. During the pilot study, as students worked through the simulation, evidence of shifts in student motivation, understanding of science content, and ideas about the nature of science became present using a combination of student interviews, focus groups, and students' conversations. Outcomes of the pilot study included improvements to the pedagogical approach. Allowing students to do 'Extreme Testing' (e.g., making the world as hot or cold as possible) and increasing the time for free exploration of the simulation are improvements made as a result of the findings of the pilot study. In the dissertation (phase two of the research design) these findings were implemented in a new curriculum scaled for 85 new students from the same school during the next school year. The modifications included new components implementing simulations as an assessment tool for all students and embedded modeling tools. All students were asked to build pre and post models, however due to technological constraints these were not an effective tool. A non-video group of 44 students was established and another group of 41 video students had a WISE curriculum which included twelve minutes of scientists' conversational videos referencing explicit aspects on the nature of science, specifically the use of models and simulations in science

  20. Simulated response of water quality in public supply wells to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, P. B.; Burow, K. R.; Kauffman, L. J.; Eberts, S. M.; BöHlke, J. K.; Gurdak, J. J.

    2008-07-01

    Understanding how changes in land use affect water quality of public supply wells (PSW) is important because of the strong influence of land use on water quality, the rapid pace at which changes in land use are occurring in some parts of the world, and the large contribution of groundwater to the global water supply. In this study, groundwater flow models incorporating particle tracking and reaction were used to analyze the response of water quality in PSW to land use change in four communities: Modesto, California (Central Valley aquifer); York, Nebraska (High Plains aquifer); Woodbury, Connecticut (Glacial aquifer); and Tampa, Florida (Floridan aquifer). The water quality response to measured and hypothetical land use change was dependent on age distributions of water captured by the wells and on the temporal and spatial variability of land use in the area contributing recharge to the wells. Age distributions of water captured by the PSW spanned about 20 years at Woodbury and >1,000 years at Modesto and York, and the amount of water <50 years old captured by the PSW ranged from 30% at York to 100% at Woodbury. Short-circuit pathways in some PSW contributing areas, such as long irrigation well screens that crossed multiple geologic layers (York) and karst conduits (Tampa), affected age distributions by allowing relatively rapid movement of young water to those well screens. The spatial component of land use change was important because the complex distribution of particle travel times within the contributing areas strongly influenced contaminant arrival times and degradation reaction progress. Results from this study show that timescales for change in the quality of water from PSW could be on the order of years to centuries for land use changes that occur over days to decades, which could have implications for source water protection strategies that rely on land use change to achieve water quality objectives.

  1. Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961-2099

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, H.E.M.; Hordoir, R.; Andersson, H.C.; Dieterich, C.; Hoeglund, A.; Schimanke, S. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Eilola, K. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Department of Research and Development, Vaestra Froelunda (Sweden); Gustafsson, B.G. [Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-11-15

    The combined future impacts of climate change and industrial and agricultural practices in the Baltic Sea catchment on the Baltic Sea ecosystem were assessed. For this purpose 16 transient simulations for 1961-2099 using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea were performed. Four climate scenarios were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Annual and seasonal mean changes of climate parameters and ecological quality indicators describing the environmental status of the Baltic Sea like bottom oxygen, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations and Secchi depths were studied. Assuming present-day nutrient concentrations in the rivers, nutrient loads from land increase during the twenty first century in all investigated scenario simulations due to increased volume flows caused by increased net precipitation in the Baltic catchment area. In addition, remineralization rates increase due to increased water temperatures causing enhanced nutrient flows from the sediments. Cause-and-effect studies suggest that both processes may play an important role for the biogeochemistry of eutrophicated seas in future climate partly counteracting nutrient load reduction efforts like the BSAP. (orig.)

  2. Simulating changes in cropping practises in conventional and glyphosate-tolerant maize. I. Effects on weeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbach, Nathalie; Fernier, Alice; Le Corre, Valérie; Messéan, Antoine; Darmency, Henri

    2017-04-01

    Herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops such as those tolerant to glyphosate simplify weed management and make it more efficient, at least at short-term. Overreliance on the same herbicide though leads to the spread of resistant weeds. Here, the objective was to evaluate, with simulations, the impact on the advent of glyphosate resistance in weeds of modifications in agricultural practises resulting from introducing HT maize into cropping systems. First, we included a single-gene herbicide resistance submodel in the existing multispecific FLORSYS model. Then, we (1) simulated current conventional and probable HT cropping systems in two European regions, Aquitaine and Catalonia, (2) compared these systems in terms of glyphosate resistance, (3) identified pertinent cultural practises influencing glyphosate resistance, and (4) investigated correlations between cultural practises and species traits, using RLQ analyses. The simulation study showed that, during the analysed 28 years, (1) glyphosate spraying only results in glyphosate resistance in weeds when combined with other cultural factors favouring weed infestation, particularly no till; (2) pre-sowing glyphosate applications select more for herbicide resistance than post-sowing applications on HT crops; and (3) glyphosate spraying selects more for species traits avoiding exposure to the herbicide (e.g. delayed early growth, small leaf area) or compensating for fitness costs (e.g. high harvest index) than for actual resistance to glyphosate, (4) actual resistance is most frequent in species that do not avoid glyphosate, either via plant size or timing, and/or in less competitive species, (5) in case of efficient weed control measures, actual resistance proliferates best in outcrossing species. An advice table was built, with the quantitative, synthetic ranking of the crop management effects in terms of glyphosate-resistance management, identifying the optimal choices for each management technique.

  3. Molecular dynamics simulations of protein-tyrosine phosphatase 1B. I. Ligand-induced changes in the protein motions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peters, Günther H. J.; Frimurer, T.M.; Andersen, J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Activity of enzymes, such as protein tyrosine phosphatases (PTPs), is often associated with structural changes in the enzyme, resulting in selective and stereospecific reactions with the substrate. To investigate the effect of a substrate on the motions occurring in PTPs, we have performed...... molecular dynamics simulations of PTP1B and PTP1B complexed with a high-affinity peptide DADEpYL, where pY stands for phosphorylated tyrosine. The peptide sequence is derived from the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR(988-993)). Simulations were performed in water for 1 ns, and the concerted motions...... in the protein were analyzed using the essential dynamics technique. Our results indicate that the predominately internal motions in PTP1B occur in a subspace of only a few degrees of freedom. Upon substrate binding, the flexibility of the protein is reduced by similar to 10%. The largest effect is found...

  4. Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2011-01-01

    A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020.

  5. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Sinkyu [Department of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Kangwon-do 200-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W. [Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 (United States)

    2006-06-01

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km{sup 2} portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T{sub a}), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 {sup o}C for T{sub a} and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

  6. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

    2006-06-01

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

  7. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2006-01-01

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km 2 portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO 2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T a ), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 o C for T a and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

  8. Understanding nucleic acid structural changes by comparing wide-angle x-ray scattering (WAXS) experiments to molecular dynamics simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pabit, Suzette A.; Katz, Andrea M.; Pollack, Lois [School of Applied and Engineering Physics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 (United States); Tolokh, Igor S. [Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Drozdetski, Aleksander [Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Baker, Nathan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352 (United States); Onufriev, Alexey V. [Department of Computer Science, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States); Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (United States)

    2016-05-28

    Wide-angle x-ray scattering (WAXS) is emerging as a powerful tool for increasing the resolution of solution structure measurements of biomolecules. Compared to its better known complement, small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS), WAXS targets higher scattering angles and can enhance structural studies of molecules by accessing finer details of solution structures. Although the extension from SAXS to WAXS is easy to implement experimentally, the computational tools required to fully harness the power of WAXS are still under development. Currently, WAXS is employed to study structural changes and ligand binding in proteins; however, the methods are not as fully developed for nucleic acids. Here, we show how WAXS can qualitatively characterize nucleic acid structures as well as the small but significant structural changes driven by the addition of multivalent ions. We show the potential of WAXS to test all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and to provide insight into understanding how the trivalent ion cobalt(III) hexammine (CoHex) affects the structure of RNA and DNA helices. We find that MD simulations capture the RNA structural change that occurs due to addition of CoHex.

  9. Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

    2017-07-01

    Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

  10. Changes in self-efficacy, collective efficacy and patient outcome following interprofessional simulation training on postpartum haemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egenberg, Signe; Øian, Pål; Eggebø, Torbjørn Moe; Arsenovic, Mirjana Grujic; Bru, Lars Edvin

    2017-10-01

    To examine whether interprofessional simulation training on management of postpartum haemorrhage enhances self-efficacy and collective efficacy and reduces the blood transfusion rate after birth. Postpartum haemorrhage is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide, although it is preventable in most cases. Interprofessional simulation training might help improve the competence of health professionals dealing with postpartum haemorrhage, and more information is needed to determine its potential. Multimethod, quasi-experimental, pre-post intervention design. Interprofessional simulation training on postpartum haemorrhage was implemented for midwives, obstetricians and auxiliary nurses in a university hospital. Training included realistic scenarios and debriefing, and a measurement scale for perceived postpartum haemorrhage-specific self-efficacy, and collective efficacy was developed and implemented. Red blood cell transfusion was used as the dependent variable for improved patient outcome pre-post intervention. Self-efficacy and collective efficacy levels were significantly increased after training. The overall red blood cell transfusion rate did not change, but there was a significant reduction in the use of ≥5 units of blood products related to severe bleeding after birth. The study contributes to new knowledge on how simulation training through mastery and vicarious experiences, verbal persuasion and psychophysiological state might enhance postpartum haemorrhage-specific self-efficacy and collective efficacy levels and thereby predict team performance. The significant reduction in severe postpartum haemorrhage after training, indicated by reduction in ≥5 units of blood transfusions, corresponds well with the improvement in collective efficacy, and might reflect the emphasis on collective efforts to counteract severe cases of postpartum haemorrhage. Interprofessional simulation training in teams may contribute to enhanced prevention and

  11. Microstructural changes after control rolling and interrupted accelerated cooling simulations in pipeline steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Mourino, Nuria; Petrov, Roumen [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Ghent University, Technologiepark Zwijnaarde 903, B-9052 Ghent (Belgium); Bae, Jin-Ho; Kim, Kisoo [Sheet Products and Process Research Group, POSCO, Jeonnam, 545-090 (Korea, Republic of); Kestens, Leo A.I. [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Ghent University, Technologiepark Zwijnaarde 903, B-9052 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD, Delft (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    The {gamma}-{alpha} transformation and final microstructure in pipeline steel was studied by carrying out a number of physical simulations of industrial hot rolling schedules. Particularly, the effect of the reheating temperature, deformation and cooling parameters on the transformation temperatures and final grain size were considered with a goal to obtain an appropriate thermo-mechanical processing route which will generate appropriate microstructures for pipeline applications. The CCT diagram of the steel was derived experimentally by means of dilatometric tests. Hot torsion experiments were applied in a multi-deformation cycle at various temperatures in the austenite region to simulate industrial rolling schedules. By variation of the reheating temperature, equivalent strain, and accelerated cooling, different types of microstructures were obtained. It was found that the deformation increases the transformation temperatures whereas the higher cooling rates after deformation decrease them. Post-deformation microstructure consists of fine bainitic-ferrite grains with dispersed carbides and small amount of dispersed martensite/austenite islands which can be controlled by varying the reheating temperature, deformation and post-deformation cooling. The detailed microstructure characteristics obtained from the present work could be used to optimize the mechanical properties, strength and toughness of pipeline steel grades by an appropriate control of the thermo-mechanical processing. (Copyright copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  12. Simulation of changes in temperature and pressure fields during high speed projectiles forming by explosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Miloš D.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Research in this paper considered the temperatures fields as the consequently influenced effects appeared by plastic deformation, in the explosively forming process aimed to design Explosively Formed Projectiles (henceforth EFP. As the special payloads of the missiles, used projectiles are packaged as the metal liners, joined with explosive charges, to design explosive propulsion effect. Their final form and velocity during shaping depend on distributed temperatures in explosively driven plastic deformation process. Developed simulation model consider forming process without metal cover of explosive charge, in aim to discover liner’s dynamical correlations of effective plastic strains and temperatures in the unconstrained detonation environment made by payload construction. The temperature fields of the liner’s copper material are considered in time, as the consequence of strain/stress displacements driven by explosion environmental thermodynamically fields of pressures and temperatures. Achieved final velocities and mass loses as the expected EFP performances are estimated regarding their dynamical shaping and thermal gradients behavior vs. effective plastic strains. Performances and parameters are presented vs. process time, numerically simulated by the Autodyne software package. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III-47029

  13. Performance Evaluation of Various Phase Change Materials for Thermal Energy Storage of A Solar Cooker via Numerical Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dede Tarwidi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, thermal performance of various phase change materials (PCMs used as thermal energy storage in a solar cooker has been investigated numerically. Heat conduction equations in cylindrical domain are used to model heat transfer of the PCMs. Mathematical model of phase change problem in the PCM storage encompasses heat conduction equations in solid and liquid region separated by moving solid-liquid interface. The phase change problem is solved by reformulating heat conduction equations with emergence of moving boundary into an enthalpy equation. Numerical solution of the enthalpy equation is obtained by implementing Godunov method and verified by analytical solution of one-dimensional case. Stability condition of the numerical scheme is also discussed. Thermal performance of various PCMs is evaluated via the stored energy and temperature history. The simulation results show that phase change material with the best thermal performance during the first 2.5 hours of energy extraction is shown by erythritol. Moreover, magnesium chloride hexahydrate can maintain temperature of the PCM storage in the range of 110-116.7°C for more than 4 hours while magnesium nitrate hexahydrate is effective only for one hour with the PCM storage temperature around 121-128°C. Among the PCMs that have been tested, it is only erythritol that can cook 10 kg of the loaded water until it reaches 100°C for about 3.5 hours. Article History: Received June 22nd 2016; Received in revised form August 26th 2016; Accepted Sept 1st 2016; Available online How to Cite This Article: Tarwidi, D., Murdiansyah, D.T, Ginanja, N. (2016 Performance Evaluation of Various Phase Change Materials for Thermal Energy Storage of A Solar Cooker via Numerical Simulation. Int. Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 5(3, 199-210. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/ijred.5.3.199-210

  14. Rhythm and theoretical perception of climate change during the 21st century using CMIP5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert

    2014-05-01

    In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and future, emphasizing stronger warming as we move further from the current climate. This long-term vision is used in order to characterize quantitatively the magnitude and expected effects of mitigation policies across the globe. In this study, an alternative approach more focused on adaptation is envisaged. It considers the rhythm of climate change by following it up with a running baseline over periods of 20 years, defining the time evolution of the speed at which climate changes. Comparing this speed with the variability of the previous 20 years, our work also aims to give an idea on how fast the climate changes from the recent year-to-year variability. This represents a theoretical approach of perception of climate change, as a 20-year period can illustrate the memory of a generation. In this way, we also evaluate how much adapting to the recent past 20 years is sufficient to cope with the expected changes of the coming ones. As a result, we estimate the stress on adaptation needs over the 21st century. Here we are mainly interested on mean and variability of surface air temperature and precipitations. A multi-model study based on CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario is conducted. Over the 21st century, important changes occur in terms of surface air temperature. These are mainly characterized by an increase of warming speed resulting in its doubling at the end of the century (2071-2090) compared to the IPCC current baseline (1986-2005), although models exhibit a different climate sensitivity. Despite an unanimous stronger speed in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere than anywhere else, the speed can increase more rapidly in some other regions. When comparing the warming speed with year-to-year variability, the change of surface air temperature appears to be perceived stronger and sooner in tropical areas than in any other regions, especially in South-East Asia

  15. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  16. 21st century changes in the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the global model CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizcaíno, M.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Van den Broeke, M.

    2012-04-01

    We present here the first projections of 21st century surface mass balance change of the Greenland ice sheet simulated with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). CESM is a fully-coupled, global climate model developed at many research centers and universities, primarily in the U.S. The model calculates the surface mass balance in the land component (the Community Land Model, CLM), at the same resolution as the atmosphere (1 degree), with an energy-balance scheme. The snow physics included in CLM for non-glaciated surfaces (SNiCAR model, Flanner and Zender, 2005) are used over the ice sheet. The surface mass balance is calculated for 10 elevation classes, and then downscaled to the grid of the ice sheet model (5 km in this case) via vertical linear interpolation between elevation classes combined with horizontal bilinear interpolation. The ice sheet topography is fixed at present-day values for the simulations presented here. The use of elevation classes reduces computational costs while giving results that reproduce well the mass balance gradients at the steep margins of the ice sheet. The simulated present-day surface mass balance agrees well with results from regional models. We focus on the regional model RACMO (Ettema et al. 2009) to compare the results on 20th-century surface mass balance evolution and two-dimensional patterns. The surface mass balance of the ice sheet under RCP8.5. forcing becomes negative in the last decades of the 21st century. The equilibrium line becomes ~500 m higher on average. Accumulation changes are positive in the accumulation zone. We examine changes in refreezing, accumulation, albedo, surface fluxes, and the timing of the melt season.

  17. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  18. Data base of climatic change simulations for the impact studies. Final report; Base de donnees des simulations de changement climatique a l'usage des etudes d'impact. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polcher, J.; Leboucher, V.; Planton, S.; Valcke, S

    2003-12-15

    Data used for the study of the climatic change impact on the environment and the society come from climate models and are affected by uncertainties. It is necessary to quantify the resulting errors in the models. The data base provides a comparison of simulations of climatic change in France. The final report presents the project methodology. Three projects using the distributed simulations are also presented. (A.L.B.)

  19. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  20. Simulated impacts of land cover change on summer climate in the Tibetan Plateau

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Qian; Xue Yongkang

    2010-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a key region of land-atmosphere interactions with severe eco-environment degradation. This study uses an atmospheric general circulation model, NCEP GCM/SSiB, to present the major TP summer climate features for six selected ENSO years and preliminarily assess the possible impact of land cover change on the summer circulation over the TP. Compared to Reanalysis II data, the GCM using satellite derived vegetation properties generally reproduces the main 6-year-mean TP summer circulation features despite some discrepancies in intensity and geographic locations of some climate features. Two existing vegetation maps with very different land cover conditions over the TP, one with bare ground and one with vegetation cover, derived from satellite derived data, are tested and produce clearer climate signals due to land cover change. It shows that land cover change from vegetated land to bare ground decreases the radiation absorbed by the surface and results in weaker surface thermal effects, which lead to lower atmospheric temperature, as well as weaker vertical ascending motion, low-layer cyclonic, upper level anticyclonic, and summer monsoon circulation. These changes in circulation cause a decrease in the precipitation in the southeastern TP.

  1. Subjective and neurovegetative changes in healthy volunteers and panic patients performing simulated public speaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parente, Alexandre C B V; Garcia-Leal, Cybele; Del-Ben, Cristina M; Guimarães, Francisco S; Graeff, Frederico G

    2005-12-01

    Drug-free symptomatic panic patients, drug-treated nonsymptomatic patients and healthy controls were submitted to simulated public speaking. Subjective anxiety, cognitive impairment and discomfort measured by the visual analog mood scale as well as skin conductance level were higher in symptomatic patients than in controls at the beginning of the experimental session, nonsymptomatic patients lying in between. Subjective sedation, spontaneous fluctuations of skin conductance, heart rate and blood pressure were similar in the three groups. Preparation and performance of speech decreased sedation while increasing anxiety, cognitive impairment, level and fluctuations of skin conductance, heart rate and blood pressure. Anxiety, cognitive impairment and conductance level were less increased in symptomatic patients than in controls. Electrodermal activity, but not cardiovascular measures of sympathetic arousal correlated with anticipatory anxiety. Chronic treatment with serotonin uptake inhibitors attenuated the differences between panic patients and controls, supporting the participation of serotonin in panic disorder.

  2. 12 weeks of simulated barefoot running changes foot-strike patterns in female runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, C; Fleming, N; Donne, B; Blanksby, B

    2014-05-01

    To investigate the effect of a transition program of simulated barefoot running (SBR) on running kinematics and foot-strike patterns, female recreational athletes (n=9, age 29 ± 3 yrs) without SBR experience gradually increased running distance in Vibram FiveFingers SBR footwear over 12 weeks. Matched controls (n=10, age 30 ± 4 yrs) continued running in standard footwear. A 3-D motion analysis of treadmill running at 12 km/h(-1) was performed by both groups, barefoot and shod, pre- and post-intervention. Post-intervention data indicated a more-forefoot strike pattern in the SBR group compared to controls; both running barefoot (P>0.05), and shod (Pstrike (Pforefoot strike pattern and "barefoot" kinematics, regardless of preferred footwear. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Designing environmental campaigns by using agent-based simulations: strategies for changing environmental attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Martens, Thomas

    2008-09-01

    Agent-based computer simulation was used to create artificial communities in which each individual was constructed according to the principles of the elaboration likelihood model of Petty and Cacioppo [1986. The elaboration likelihood model of persuasion. In: Berkowitz, L. (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology. Academic Press, New York, NY, pp. 123-205]. Campaigning strategies and community characteristics were varied systematically to understand and test their impact on attitudes towards environmental protection. The results show that strong arguments influence a green (environmentally concerned) population with many contacts most effectively, while peripheral cues have the greatest impact on a non-green population with fewer contacts. Overall, deeper information scrutiny increases the impact of strong arguments but is especially important for convincing green populations. Campaigns involving person-to-person communication are superior to mass-media campaigns because they can be adapted to recipients' characteristics.

  4. Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

    2017-11-01

    A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

  5. Simulated changes in biogenic VOC emissions and ozone formation from habitat expansion of Acer Rubrum (red maple)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drewniak, Beth A; Snyder, Peter K; Twine, Tracy E; Steiner, Allison L; Wuebbles, Donald J

    2014-01-01

    A new vegetation trend is emerging in northeastern forests of the United States, characterized by an expansion of red maple at the expense of oak. This has changed emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), primarily isoprene and monoterpenes. Oaks strongly emit isoprene while red maple emits a negligible amount. This species shift may impact nearby urban centers because the interaction of isoprene with anthropogenic nitrogen oxides can lead to tropospheric ozone formation and monoterpenes can lead to the formation of particulate matter. In this study the Global Biosphere Emissions and Interactions System was used to estimate the spatial changes in BVOC emission fluxes resulting from a shift in forest composition between oak and maple. A 70% reduction in isoprene emissions occurred when oak was replaced with maple. Ozone simulations with a chemical box model at two rural and two urban sites showed modest reductions in ozone concentrations of up to 5–6 ppb resulting from a transition from oak to red maple, thus suggesting that the observed change in forest composition may benefit urban air quality. This study illustrates the importance of monitoring and representing changes in forest composition and the impacts to human health indirectly through changes in BVOCs. (paper)

  6. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  7. How does increasing immunity change spread kernel parameters in subsequent outbreaks? – A simulation study on Bluetongue Virus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Græsbøll, Kaare; Bødker, Rene; Enøe, Claes

    Modelling the spatial spread of vector borne diseases, one may choose methods ranging from statistic to process oriented. One often used statistic tool is the empirical spread kernel. An empiric spread kernel fitted to outbreak data provides hints on the spread mechanisms, and may provide a good...... estimate on how future epidemics could proceed under similar conditions. However, a number of variables influence the spread of vector borne diseases. If one of these changes significantly after an outbreak, it needs to be incorporated into the model to improve the prediction on future outbreaks. Examples...... of such changes are: vaccinations, acquired immunity, vector density and control, meteorological variations, wind pattern, and so on. Including more and more variables leads to a more process oriented model. A full process oriented approach simulates the movement of virus between vectors and host, describing...

  8. Modelling and simulation of phase change material latent heat storages applied to a solar-powered Organic Rankine Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manfrida, Giampaolo; Secchi, Riccardo; Stańczyk, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A mathematical model of a Latent Heat Storage system was developed. • Energy and exergy analysis of the storage system were carried out. • A solar powered ORC unit coupled with the Latent Heat Storage was studied. • The dynamic performance of the overall plant was simulated with TRNSYS. - Abstract: Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources, but is intermittent by its nature. The study of efficient thermal heat storage technologies is of fundamental importance for the development of solar power systems. This work focuses on a robust mathematical model of a Latent Heat Storage (LHS) system constituted by a storage tank containing Phase Change Material spheres. The model, developed in EES environment, provides the time-dependent temperature profiles for the PCM and the heat transfer fluid flowing in the storage tank, and the energy and exergy stored as well. A case study on the application of the LHS technology is also presented. The operation of a solar power plant associated with a latent heat thermal storage and an ORC unit is simulated under dynamic (time-varying) solar radiation conditions with the software TRNSYS. The performance of the proposed plant is simulated over a one week period, and the results show that the system is able to provide power in 78.5% of the time, with weekly averaged efficiencies of 13.4% for the ORC unit, and of 3.9% for the whole plant (from solar radiation to net power delivered by the ORC expander).

  9. Phase-contrast MRI versus numerical simulation to quantify hemodynamical changes in cerebral aneurysms after flow diverter treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolov, Sergey; Prothmann, Sascha; Liepsch, Dieter; Balasso, Andrea; Berg, Philipp; Kaczmarz, Stephan; Kirschke, Jan Stefan

    2018-01-01

    Cerebral aneurysms are a major risk factor for intracranial bleeding with devastating consequences for the patient. One recently established treatment is the implantation of flow-diverters (FD). Methods to predict their treatment success before or directly after implantation are not well investigated yet. The aim of this work was to quantitatively study hemodynamic parameters in patient-specific models of treated cerebral aneurysms and its correlation with the clinical outcome. Hemodynamics were evaluated using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and phase contrast (PC) MRI. CFD simulations and in vitro MRI measurements were done under similar flow conditions and results of both methods were comparatively analyzed. For preoperative and postoperative distribution of hemodynamic parameters, CFD simulations and PC-MRI velocity measurements showed similar results. In both cases where no occlusion of the aneurysm was observed after six months, a flow reduction of about 30-50% was found, while in the clinically successful case with complete occlusion of the aneurysm after 6 months, the flow reduction was about 80%. No vortex was observed in any of the three models after treatment. The results are in agreement with recent studies suggesting that CFD simulations can predict post-treatment aneurysm flow alteration already before implantation of a FD and PC-MRI could validate the predicted hemodynamic changes right after implantation of a FD. PMID:29304062

  10. Simulation Study of Active Ceilings with Phase Change Material in Office Buildings for Different National Building Regulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farhan, Hajan; Stefansen, Casper; Bourdakis, Eleftherios

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the performance of phase change material (PCM) in active ceilings for an office room under different Danish building regulations for both heating and cooling purposes. A model of a two-person office room was simulated with the only heating and cooling source...... being radiant ceiling panels containing PCM. The target was to reduce energy use for the simulation models and still meet the recommended criteria of Category II for the European Standard EN 15251:2007 namely, 23°C – 26°C (73.4°F – 78.8°F) during summer and between 20°C – 24°C (68.0°F – 73.4°F) during...... winter. The office model was simulated for a whole year and analyzed for three Danish building regulations BR10 (2010), BR15 (2015) and BR20 (2020). The results show that the indoor environment was within the desired Category II, according to EN 15251 for the whole occupancy period. The predicted...

  11. The influences of load mass changing on inverted pendulum stability based on simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pangaribuan, Timbang; Nasruddin, M. N.; Marlianto, Eddy; Sigiro, Mula

    2017-09-01

    An inverted pendulum has nonlinear dynamic, so it is not easy to do in analysis to see its behavior. From many observations which have been made, there are two things that need to be added on the perfection of inverted pendulum. Firstly, when the pendulum has a large mass, and the second when the pendulum is given a load mass much larger than mass of the inverted pendulum. There are some question, first, how big the load mass can be given so that the movement of the inverted pendulum stay stable is. Second, how weight the changes and moves of load mass which can be given. For all the changes, it hopes the inverted pendulum is stay stable. Finally, the final result is still expected to be as stable, it must need conclude what kind of controller is capable of carrying such a mass burden, and how large the mass load limit can be given.

  12. Headache under simulated microgravity is related to endocrine, fluid distribution, and tight junction changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuerecker, Matthias; van Oosterhout, Willebrordus P J; Feuerecker, Benedikt; Matzel, Sandra; Schelling, Gustav; Rehm, Markus; Vein, Alla A; Choukèr, Alexander

    2016-05-01

    Head-down-tilted bed rest (HDTBR) induces headaches similar to headaches during space flights. The objective of this investigation was to study hematological, endocrinological, fluid changes and tight junctions in HDTBR-induced headaches as a proxy for space headache. The randomized crossover HDTBR design by the European Space Agency included 12 healthy, nonheadache male subjects. Before, during, and after confined HDTBR periods, epinephrine (urine), cortisol (saliva), hematological, endothelium markers, and fluid distribution parameters were measured. Headaches were assessed with a validated headache questionnaire. Compared with baseline, HDTBR in all subjects was associated with higher hematocrit, hemoglobin, and epinephrine levels, higher erythrocyte counts, and lower relative plasma volumes (all P zonulin was elevated (vs headache-free subjects in HDTBR days 1, 3, 5; P < 0.05). HDTBR induces hemoconcentration and fluid redistribution in all subjects. During headache episodes, endocrinological changes, fluid distribution, and tight junctions were more pronounced, suggesting an additional role in headache pathophysiology.

  13. Basin-scale simulation of current and potential climate changed hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2014-01-01

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) is the largest public investment in the Great Lakes in two decades. A task force of 11 Federal agencies developed an action plan to implement the initiative. The U.S. Department of the Interior was one of the 11 agencies that entered into an interagency agreement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as part of the GLRI to complete scientific projects throughout the Great Lakes basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, a bureau within the Department of the Interior, is involved in the GLRI to provide scientific support to management decisions as well as measure progress of the Great Lakes basin restoration efforts. This report presents basin-scale simulated current and forecast climatic and hydrologic conditions in the Lake Michigan Basin. The forecasts were obtained by constructing and calibrating a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model of the Lake Michigan Basin; the PRMS model was calibrated using the parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis (PEST) software suite. The calibrated model was used to evaluate potential responses to climate change by using four simulated carbon emission scenarios from eight general circulation models released by the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3. Statistically downscaled datasets of these scenarios were used to project hydrologic response for the Lake Michigan Basin. In general, most of the observation sites in the Lake Michigan Basin indicated slight increases in annual streamflow in response to future climate change scenarios. Monthly streamflows indicated a general shift from the current (2014) winter-storage/snowmelt-pulse system to a system with a more equally distributed hydrograph throughout the year. Simulated soil moisture within the basin illustrates that conditions within the basin are also expected to change on a monthly timescale. One effect of increasing air temperature as a result of the changing

  14. Experimental analysis and simulation of the dynamic response of a propeller pitch change actuator

    OpenAIRE

    LECLERCQ, Maxime; MALBURET, François; VERON, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses specifically on the control of the propeller pitch change mechanisms and their associated dynamics. The subject of this article is restricted to the mechanisms using a hydraulic single acting actuator. They function asymmetrically and are subject to important varying external loads under the full flight envelope. This phenomenon has an impact on their dynamic response.The question of the dynamics of these systems is rarely dealt with because, usually for aircraft applicatio...

  15. Experimental analysis and simulation of the dynamix response of a propeller pitch change actuator

    OpenAIRE

    LECLERCQ, Maxime; MALBURET, François; VERON, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses specifically on the control of the propeller pitch change mechanisms and their associated dynamics. The subject of this article is restricted to the mechanisms using a hydraulic single acting actuator. They function asymmetrically and are subject to important varying external loads under the full flight envelope. This phenomenon has an impact on their dynamic response. The question of the dynamics of these systems is rarely dealt with because, usually for aircraft applic...

  16. A numerical simulation model of valence-change-based resistive switching

    OpenAIRE

    Marchewka, Astrid

    2017-01-01

    Due to their superior scalability and performance, nanoscale resistive switches based on the valence-change mechanism are considered promising candidates for future nonvolatile memory and logic applications. These devices are metal-oxide-metal structures that can be reversibly switched between different resistance states by electrical signals. Typically, they contain one Schottky-like and one ohmic-like metal-oxide contact and exhibit bipolar switching. The switching mechanism and the initial...

  17. Color Vision Changes and Effects of High Contrast Visor Use at Simulated Cabin Altitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-08

    Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person...Morris DS, Kalson NS, Wright AD, Imray CHE, et al. Changes to colour vision on exposure to high altitude. J R Army Med Corps. 2011; 157(1):107-109...4. Richalet JP, Duval-Arnould G, Darnaud B, Keromes A, Rutgers V. Modification of colour vision in the green/red axis in acute and chronic

  18. Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte A.; Cheng, Linyin; Vahedifard, Farshid; Lima, Carlos H. R.

    2018-03-01

    During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity. Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of extremes do not change significantly over time. However, in a warming climate, infrastructures and natural slopes will likely face more severe climatic conditions, with potential human and socioeconomical consequences. Here we outline a framework for quantifying climate change impacts based on the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events using bias corrected historical and multimodel projected precipitation extremes. The approach evaluates changes in rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves and their uncertainty bounds using a nonstationary model based on Bayesian inference. We show that highly populated areas across the United States may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequent, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation. Since IDF curves are widely used for infrastructure design and risk assessment, the proposed framework offers an avenue for assessing resilience of infrastructure and landslide hazard in a warming climate.

  19. Assessing Forest Carbon Response to Climate Change and Disturbances Using Long-term Hydro-climatic Observations and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large

  20. Impact of Future Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Simulated Case for China’s Wheat System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dengpan Xiao

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With regard to global climate change due to increasing concentration in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2, it is important to examine its potential impact on crop development and production. We used statistically-downscaled climate data from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM–Wheat model to simulate the impact of future climate change on wheat production. Two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during two different future periods (2031–2060 referred to as 40S and 2071–2100 referred to as 80S. Relative to the baseline period (1981–2010, the trends in mean daily temperature and radiation significantly increased across all stations under the future scenarios. Furthermore, the trends in precipitation increased under future climate scenarios. Due to climate change, the trend in wheat phenology significantly advanced. The early flowering and maturity dates shortened both the vegetative growth stage (VGP and the whole growth period (WGP. As the advance in the days of maturity was more than that in flowering, the length of the reproductive growth stage (RGP of spring wheat was shortened. However, as the advance in the date of maturity was less than that of flowering, the RGP of winter wheat was extended. When the increase in CO2 concentration under future climate scenarios was not considered, the trend in change in wheat production for the baseline declined. In contrast, under increased CO2 concentration, the trend in wheat yield increased for most of the stations (except for Nangong station under future climatic conditions. Winter wheat and spring wheat evapotranspiration (ET decreased across all stations under the two future climate scenarios. As wheat yield increased with decreasing water consumption (as ET under the future climatic conditions, water use efficiency (WUE significantly improved in the future period.

  1. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  2. Experimental observation and numerical simulation of permeability changes in dolomite at CO2 sequestration conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tutolo, B. M.; Luhmann, A. J.; Kong, X.; Saar, M. O.; Seyfried, W. E.

    2013-12-01

    Injecting surface temperature CO2 into geothermally warm reservoirs for geologic storage or energy production may result in depressed temperature near the injection well and thermal gradients and mass transfer along flow paths leading away from the well. Thermal gradients are particularly important to consider in reservoirs containing carbonate minerals, which are more soluble at lower temperatures, as well as in CO2-based geothermal energy reservoirs where lowering heat exchanger rejection temperatures increases efficiency. Additionally, equilibrating a fluid with cation-donating silicates near a low-temperature injection well and transporting the fluid to higher temperature may enhance the kinetics of mineral precipitation in such a way as to overcome the activation energy required for mineral trapping of CO2. We have investigated this process by subjecting a dolomite core to a 650-hour temperature series experiment in which the fluid was saturated with CO2 at high pressure (110-126 bars) and 21°C. This fluid was recirculated through the dolomite core, increasing permeability from 10-16 to 10-15.2 m2. Subsequently, the core temperature was raised to 50° C, and permeability decreased to 10-16.2 m2 after 289 hours, due to thermally-driven CO2 exsolution. Increasing core temperature to 100°C for the final 145 hours of the experiment caused dolomite to precipitate, which, together with further CO2 exsolution, decreased permeability to 10-16.4 m2. Post-experiment x-ray computed tomography and scanning electron microscope imagery of the dolomite core reveals abundant matrix dissolution and enlargement of flow paths at low temperatures, and subsequent filling-in of the passages at elevated temperature by dolomite. To place this experiment within the broader context of geologic CO2 sequestration, we designed and utilized a reactive transport simulator that enables dynamic calculation of CO2 equilibrium constants and fugacity and activity coefficients by incorporating

  3. Quality changes of 'Sanguinello' oranges wrapped with different plastic films under simulated marketing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Aquino, S; Malinconico, M; Avella, M; Di Lorenzo, M L; Mura; Palma, A

    2013-01-01

    Chemical and eating quality of citrus fruit changes slowly after harvest, and quality alteration is mainly due to shrinkage, loss of firmness, excessive weight loss and decay rather than a reduction of nutritional value and taste features. Film wrapping may be a suitable means to reduce transpiration and preserve market quality provided film permeability to gases does not lead to: 1) a reduction of in-package O2 partial pressure at a point that would induce anaerobic respiration; 2) an increase of CO2 concentration to toxic levels. This experiment was carried out to study quality changes of 'Sanguinello' oranges treated or not treated with 500 mg/L imazalil (IMZ) and wrapped with continuous, macro- or micro-perforated polyolefinic films. Wrapped and no-wrapped fruit were stored at 20 degrees C and 60% RH for 20 or 30 days. In-package gas composition of the macro-perforated film showed no significant difference compared to air composition, while in-package partial pressure of CO2 and O2 ranged between 4 (continuous film) and 9.8 kPa (micro-perforated films), and 14.8 (continuous film) and 5 kPa (micro-perforated films), respectively. After 30 days of storage weight loss in fruit wrapped with the macro-perforated film was (4.3%) slightly lowerthan un-packed fruit (5%), while in all other packages weight loss never exceeded 0.7%.Quality changes were quite stable over storage in all treatments, although slight but significantly lower levels of total soluble solids and ascorbic acid were detected in micro-perforated films with the lowest degree of perforation. However, the sensory analysis denoted a remarkable decrease of firmness in un-wrapped or wrapped fruit with macro-perforated film, while a moderate build-up of off-flavour, which reduced the eating quality, developed in micro-perforated films. Decay ranged between 6 and 12% in not treated fruit, with the lowest incidence detected in un-wrapped fruit, whereas differences among the different films were not

  4. Simulation on change of generic satellite radar cross section via artificially created plasma sprays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Shen Shou Max; Chuang, Yu-Chou

    2016-01-01

    Recent advancements in antisatellite missile technologies have proven the effectiveness of such attacks, and the vulnerability of satellites in such exercises inspires a new paradigm in RF Stealth techniques suitable for satellites. In this paper we examine the possibility of using artificially created plasma sprays on the surface of the satellite’s main body to alter its radar cross section (RCS). First, we briefly review past research related to RF Stealth using plasma. Next, we discuss the physics between electromagnetic waves and plasma, and the RCS number game in RF Stealth design. A comparison of RCS in a generic satellite and a more complicated model is made to illustrate the effect of the RCS number game, and its meaning for a simulation model. We also run a comparison between finite-difference-time-domain (FDTD) and multilevel fast multipole method (MLFMM) codes, and find the RCS results are very close. We then compare the RCS of the generic satellite and the plasma-covered satellite. The incident radar wave is a differentiated Gaussian monopulse, with 3 dB bandwidth between 1.2 GHz and 4 GHz, and we simulate three kinds of plasma density, with a characteristic plasma frequency ω P   =  0.1, 1, and 10 GHz. The electron-neutral collision frequency ν en is set at 0.01 GHz. We found the RCS of plasma-covered satellite is not necessarily smaller than the originally satellite. When ω P is 0.1 GHz, the plasma spray behaves like a dielectric, and there is minor reduction in the RCS. When ω P is 1 GHz, the X–Y cut RCS increases. When ω P is 10 GHz, the plasma behaves more like a metal to the radar wave, and stronger RCS dependency to frequency appears. Therefore, to use plasma as an RCS adjustment tool requires careful fine-tuning of plasma density and shape, in order to achieve the so-called plasma stealth effect. (paper)

  5. Experimental simulation of air quality in street canyon under changes of building orientation and aspect ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, Mohamed F; Ohba, Masaake

    2012-09-01

    To assist validation of numerical simulations of urban pollution, air quality in a street canyon was investigated using a wind tunnel as a research tool under neutral atmospheric conditions. We used tracer gas techniques from a line source without buoyancy. Ethylene (C(2)H(4)) was used as the tracer gas. The street canyon model was formed of six parallel building rows of the same length. The flow and dispersion field was analyzed and measured using a hot-wire anemometer with split fiber probe and fast flame ionization detector. The diffusion flow field in the boundary layer within the street canyon was examined at different locations, with varying building orientations (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135° and 157.5°) and street canyon aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4 and 1) downwind of the leeward side of the street canyon model. Results show that velocity increases with aspect ratio, and with θ>90°. Pollutant concentration increases as aspect ratio decreases. This concentration decreases exponentially in the vertical direction, and decreases as θ increases from 90°. Measured pollutant concentration distributions indicate that variability of building orientation and aspect ratio in the street canyon are important for estimating air quality in the canyon. The data presented here can be used as a comprehensive database for validation of numerical models.

  6. Seed dormancy and germination of Halophila ovalis mediated by simulated seasonal temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statton, John; Sellers, Robert; Dixon, Kingsley W.; Kilminster, Kieryn; Merritt, David J.; Kendrick, Gary A.

    2017-11-01

    The seagrass, Halophila ovalis plays an important ecological and sediment stability role in estuarine systems in Australia with the species in decline in many sites. Halophila ovalis is a facultative annual, relying mainly on recruitment from the sediment seed bank for the annual regeneration of meadows. Despite this, there is little understanding of seed dormancy releasing mechanisms and germination cues. Using H. ovalis seed from the warm temperate Swan River Estuary in Western Australia, the germination ecology of H. ovalis was investigated by simulating the natural seasonal variation in water temperatures. The proportion of germinating seeds was found to be significantly different among temperature treatments (p < 0.001). The treatment with the longest period of cold exposure at 15 °C followed by an increase in temperature to 20-25 °C (i.e. cold stratification) had the highest final mean germination of 32% and the fastest germination rate. Seeds exposed to constant mean winter temperatures of 15 °C had the slowest germination rate with less than two seeds germinating over 118 days. Thus temperature is a key germination cue for H. ovalis seeds and these data infer that cold stratification is an important dormancy releasing mechanism. This finding has implications for recruitment in facultative annual species like H. ovalis under global warming since the trend for increasing water temperatures in the region may limit seed-based recruitment in the future.

  7. Effect of water phase transition on dynamic ruptures with thermal pressurization: Numerical simulations with changes in physical properties of water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Yumi; Kuge, Keiko; Kase, Yuko

    2015-02-01

    Phase transitions of pore water have never been considered in dynamic rupture simulations with thermal pressurization (TP), although they may control TP. From numerical simulations of dynamic rupture propagation including TP, in the absence of any water phase transition process, we predict that frictional heating and TP are likely to change liquid pore water into supercritical water for a strike-slip fault under depth-dependent stress. This phase transition causes changes of a few orders of magnitude in viscosity, compressibility, and thermal expansion among physical properties of water, thus affecting the diffusion of pore pressure. Accordingly, we perform numerical simulations of dynamic ruptures with TP, considering physical properties that vary with the pressure and temperature of pore water on a fault. To observe the effects of the phase transition, we assume uniform initial stress and no fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity. The results suggest that the varying physical properties decrease the total slip in cases with high stress at depth and small shear zone thickness. When fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity are included in the diffusion equation, they activate TP much earlier than the phase transition. As a consequence, the total slip becomes greater than that in the case with constant physical properties, eradicating the phase transition effect. Varying physical properties do not affect the rupture velocity, irrespective of the fault-normal variations. Thus, the phase transition of pore water has little effect on dynamic ruptures. Fault-normal variations in fluid density and viscosity may play a more significant role.

  8. Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

    2017-11-01

    Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

  9. Simulating the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources of the Magdalen Islands, Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel Lemieux

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Study region: This study is conducted in the Magdalen Islands (Québec, Canada, a small archipelago located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Study focus: This work was undertaken to support the design of a long-term groundwater monitoring network and for the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study relies mostly on the compilation of existing data, but additional field work has also been carried out, allowing for the first time in the Magdalen Islands, direct observation of the depth and shape of the transition zone between freshwater and seawater under natural conditions. Simulations were conducted along a 2D cross-section on Grande Entrée Island in order to assess the individual and combined impacts of sea-level rise, coastal erosion and decreased groundwater recharge on the position of the saltwater–freshwater interface. The simulations were performed considering variable-density flow and solute transport under saturated-unsaturated conditions. The model was driven by observed and projected climate change scenarios to 2040 for the Magdalen Islands. New hydrological insights for the region: The simulation results show that among the three impacts considered, the most important is sea-level rise, followed by decreasing groundwater recharge and coastal erosion. When combined, these impacts cause the saltwater–freshwater interface to migrate inland over a distance of 37 m and to rise by 6.5 m near the coast to 3.1 m further inland, over a 28-year period. Keywords: Coastal aquifers, Seawater intrusion, Climate change, Magdalen Islands

  10. Increasing biological diversity in a dynamic vegetation model and consequences for simulated response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keribin, R. M.; Friend, A. D.; Purves, D.; Smith, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation, from tropical rainforests to the tundra, is the basis of the world food chain but is also a key component of the Earth system, with biophysical and biogeochemical impacts on the global climate, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important integrative tool for understanding its responses to climate change. DGVMs up to now have treated only a small number of plant types representing broad divisions in vegetation worldwide (e.g. trees and grasses, broadleaf and needleleaf, deciduousness), but these categories ignore most of the variation that exists between plant species and between individuals within a species. Research in community ecology makes it clear however that these variations can affect large-scale ecosystem properties such as productivity and resilience to environmental changes. The current challenge is for DGVMs to account for fine-grained variations between plants and a few such models are being developed using newly-available plant trait databases such as the TRY database and insights from community ecology such as habitat filtering. Hybrid is an individual-based DGVM, first published in 1993, that models plant physiology in a mechanistic way. We modified Hybrid 8, the latest version of the model which uses surface physics taken from the GISS ModelE GCM, to include a mechanistic gap-model component with individual-based variation in tree wood density. This key plant trait is known to be strongly correlated with a trade-off between growth and mortality in the majority of forests worldwide, which allows for otherwise-similar individuals to have different life-history strategies. We investigate how the inclusion of continuous variation in wood density into the model affects the ecosystem's transient dynamics under climate change.

  11. Pulmonary Morphological Changes in the Simulation and Treatment of Lower Limb Ischemic and Perfusion Lesions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Sergiyenko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: to investigate pulmonary morphological changes in animals with limb ischemic and reperfusion lesions, which were treated with hemocarboperfusion on sodium hypochlorite-modified sorbents.Materials and methods. The investigation was conducted on 94 mature mongrel male dogs with 4-hour limb ischemia and subsequent reperfusion. Limb ischemia was induced by applying a tourniquet to the isolated vascular fascicle of an experimental limb proximal to the origin of the deep artery of the thigh. Following 4 hours, reperfusion was made, by removing the tourniquet. Three hours of the initiation of reperfusion, one-hour hemocarboperfusion was performed thrice for 72 hours. Lung biopsy samples were used for morphological studies. Morphological changes were evaluated, by employing the hematoxylin- and eosin-stained semifine sections. The visceral histological pattern was assessed by a light trinocular microscope (OLYMPUS, Japan (microscope objective 10.Results. The development of 4-hour limb ischemia is accompanied by significant microcirculatory disorders in the lungs that exhibit dyscirculatory and dystrophic processes concurrent with the signs of tissue dyscomplexation without the signs of an inflammatory reaction. In the reperfusion period, there was a significant progression of lung tissue morphological changes corresponding to the pattern of phase 2 respiratory distress syndrome. Sodium hypochlorite-modified CKN-1K sorbent hemocarboperfusion resulted in a virtually complete restoration of the lung architectonics in the presence of insignificant microcirculato-ry and ventilatory disorders. After standard hemocarboperfusion, the lung tissue may be defined as a slightly reduced pattern of acute pulmonary lesion.Conclusion. Sodium hypochlorite-modified CKN-1K sorbent hemocarboperfusion is an effective technique in abolishing ischemic and reperfusion lesions. 

  12. A meta-analysis of soil exoenzyme responses to simulated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebhardt, M.; Espinosa, N. J.; Blankinship, J. C.; Gallery, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    Microorganisms produce extracellular enzymes to decompose plant matter and drive biogeochemical transformations in soils. Climate change factors, such as warming and altered precipitation patterns, can impact enzyme activity through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Although many individual studies have examined how soil exoenzyme activities respond to climate change manipulations, there is disagreement surrounding the direction of these responses. We performed a synthesis of published studies to examine the influence of warming and altered precipitation on microbial exoenzyme activity. We found that warming increased enzyme activity with a more pronounced effect for oxidative relative to hydrolytic enzymes. Reduced precipitation consistently decreased exoenzyme activity. These responses, however, varied by season, biome, and enzyme type. The majority of studies fitting our criteria (e.g., experiments lasting a minimum of one growing season, paired treatments and controls) were located in North America and Europe. Inferences from this analysis therefore exclude many important ecosystems such as hyper-arid, wetlands, and artic systems. Carbon degrading enzyme activities were less sensitive to climate change manipulations when compared to phosphorus and nitrogen degrading enzyme activities. Linking enzyme activity to biogeochemical processes requires concomitant measurements of organic and inorganic carbon pools, mineralogy, nutrients, microbial biomass and community structure, and heterotrophic respiration within individual studies. Furthermore, linking these parameters to climate and environmental factors will require a comprehensive and consistent inclusion of biotic and abiotic variables among researchers and experiments. Globally, soils contain the largest carbon pools. Understanding the impacts of large-scale perturbations on soil enzyme activity will help to constrain predictions on the fate of biogeochemical transformations and improve model projections.

  13. Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

  14. A cross-biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lingli; Wang, Xin; Lajeunesse, Marc J; Miao, Guofang; Piao, Shilong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wu, Yuxin; Wang, Zhenhua; Yang, Sen; Li, Ping; Deng, Meifeng

    2016-04-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although Rs has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of Rs will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis Rs data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, Rs, and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in Rs and Q10 were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and Rs values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q10 values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and Rs by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q10. Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and Rs tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of Rs and Q10 were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these

  15. Density functional simulations of Sb-rich GeSbTe phase change alloys

    OpenAIRE

    Gabardi, S; Caravati, S; Bernasconi, M; Parrinello, M

    2012-01-01

    We generated models of the amorphous phase of Sb rich GeSbTe phase change alloys by quenching from the melt within density functional molecular dynamics. We considered the two compositions Ge 1Sb 1Te 1 and Ge 2Sb 4Te 5. Comparison with previous results on the most studied Ge 2Sb 2Te 5 allowed us to draw some conclusions on the dependence of the structural properties of the amorphous phase on the alloy composition. Vibrational and electronic properties were also scrutinized. Phonons at high fr...

  16. Mathematical Modeling and Simulations of Phase Change Materials in Basic Orthogonal Coordinate Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rousse, Daniel; Dutil, Yvan; Ben Salah, Nizar; Lassue, Stephane

    2010-09-15

    Energy storage components improve the energy efficiency of systems by reducing the mismatch between supply and demand. Phase change materials are attractive since they provide a high energy storage density at constant temperatures. Nevertheless, the incorporation of such materials in a particular application often calls for numerical analyses due to the non-linear nature of the problem. The review of the mathematical models will include selected results to enable one to start his/her research with an exhaustive overview of the subject. This overview also stresses the need to match experimental investigations with recent numerical analyses.

  17. Risk-based transfer responses to climate change, simulated through autocorrelated stochastic methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, B.; Characklis, G. W.

    2009-12-01

    Maintaining municipal water supply reliability despite growing demands can be achieved through a variety of mechanisms, including supply strategies such as temporary transfers. However, much of the attention on transfers has been focused on market-based transfers in the western United States largely ignoring the potential for transfers in the eastern U.S. The different legal framework of the eastern and western U.S. leads to characteristic differences between their respective transfers. Western transfers tend to be agricultural-to-urban and involve raw, untreated water, with the transfer often involving a simple change in the location and/or timing of withdrawals. Eastern transfers tend to be contractually established urban-to-urban transfers of treated water, thereby requiring the infrastructure to transfer water between utilities. Utilities require the tools to be able to evaluate transfer decision rules and the resulting expected future transfer behavior. Given the long-term planning horizons of utilities, potential changes in hydrologic patterns due to climate change must be considered. In response, this research develops a method for generating a stochastic time series that reproduces the historic autocorrelation and can be adapted to accommodate future climate scenarios. While analogous in operation to an autoregressive model, this method reproduces the seasonal autocorrelation structure, as opposed to assuming the strict stationarity produced by an autoregressive model. Such urban-to-urban transfers are designed to be rare, transient events used primarily during times of severe drought, and incorporating Monte Carlo techniques allows for the development of probability distributions of likely outcomes. This research evaluates a system risk-based, urban-to-urban transfer agreement between three utilities in the Triangle region of North Carolina. Two utilities maintain their own surface water supplies in adjoining watersheds and look to obtain transfers via

  18. Thermal Behavior of Mixtures of Perlite and Phase Change Materials in a Simulated Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Childs, K.W.; Childs, P.W.; Christian, J.E.; Petrie, T.W.

    1995-01-01

    Carefully controlled and well documented experiments have been done for two candidate configurations to control the heat load on a conditioned space. The 2:1 PCM/perlite mixture and the 6:1 PCM/perlite mixture, both on a weight basis, accomplished thermal control. The 2:1 system seemed to have enough PCM to be effective and involve a much larger fraction of its PCM in diurnal freezing and melting than the 6:1 system. It is a good starting point for engineering design of an optimum thermal control system. The results from the 2:1 system were reproduced with the computer program HEATING to prove that we know the relevant mechanisms and thermophysical properties of the PCM used in the system. Even without a model for the supersaturation and hysteresis that this material exhibited, HEATING reproduced the heat fluxes to the conditioned space in the experiments accurately enough to mirror the good thermal control performance of the system. The modified sensible heat capacity that was used in HEATING is a handy way to account for phase change effects and could be used in a subroutine to compute hourly phase change effects for whole building models like DOE-2. The experiments were done with PCM/perlite mixtures sealed in small methylmethacrylate boxes and covered top and bottom by XPS. The boxes allowed precise placement of the instrumentation used to follow the phase change effects. The XPS gave high R-value per unit thickness. A more practical prototype configuration such as PCM/perlite hermetically sealed in plastic pouches between layers of batts or blown-in insulation should be tested over a larger cross section. A good candidate is the whole attic cavity of the manufactured home test section used in the present work. Use of a PCM that does not exhibit supersaturation and hysteresis would make interpretation of the results easier. If the results of the larger scale test areas are as encouraging as the test cell results, a whole house model with a phase change

  19. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  20. A Numerical Simulation Study of Impacts of Historical Land-Use Changes on the Regional Climate in China Since 1700

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Qiaoping; DING Yihui; DONG Wenjie

    2007-01-01

    By using the improved regional climate model (BCC_RegCM1.0), a series of modeling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impacts of historical land-use changes (LUCs) on the regional climate in China.Simulations are conducted for 2 years using estimated land-use for 1700, 1800, 1900, 1950, and 1990. The conversion of land cover in these periods was extensive over China, where large areas were altered from forests to either grass or crops, or from grasslands to crops. Results show that, since 1700, historical LUCs have significant effects on regional climate change, with rainfall increasing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Northwest China, and Northeast China, but decreasing by different degrees in other regions. The air temperature shows significant warming over large areas in recent hundred years,especially from 1950 to 1990, which is consistent with the warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases.On the other hand, historical LUCs have obvious effects on mean circulation, with the East Asian winter and summer monsoonal flows becoming more intensive, which is mainly attributed to the amplified temperature difference between ocean and land due to vegetation change. Thus, it would be given more attention to the impacts of LUCs on regional climate change.

  1. Effects of species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity on simulated tree species distribution shifts under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen J; He, Hong S; Thompson, Frank R; Spetich, Martin A; Fraser, Jacob S

    2018-09-01

    Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear -1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  3. Simulating the Effect of Climate Change on Vegetation Zone Distribution on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk assessment of vegetation zone responses to climate change was conducted using the classical Holdridge life zone model on the Loess Plateau of Northwest China. The results show that there are currently ten vegetation zones occurring on the Loess Plateau (1950–2000, including alvar desert, alpine wet tundra, alpine rain tundra, boreal moist forest, boreal wet forest, cool temperate desert, cool temperate desert scrub, cool temperate steppe, cool temperate moist forest, warm temperate desert scrub, warm temperate thorn steppe, and warm temperate dry forest. Seventy years later (2070S, the alvar desert, the alpine wet tundra and the cool temperate desert will disappear, while warm temperate desert scrub and warm temperate thorn steppe will emerge. The area proportion of warm temperate dry forest will expand from 12.2% to 22.8%–37.2%, while that of cool temperate moist forest will decrease from 18.5% to 6.9%–9.5%. The area proportion of cool temperate steppe will decrease from 51.8% to 34.5%–51.6%. Our results suggest that future climate change will be conducive to the growth and expansion of forest zones on the Loess Plateau, which can provide valuable reference information for regional vegetation restoration planning and adaptive strategies in this region.

  4. A review on phase-change materials: Mathematical modeling and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutil, Yvan; Rousse, Daniel R.; Salah, Nizar Ben; Lassue, Stephane; Zalewski, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    Energy storage components improve the energy efficiency of systems by reducing the mismatch between supply and demand. For this purpose, phase-change materials are particularly attractive since they provide a high-energy storage density at a constant temperature which corresponds to the phase transition temperature of the material. Nevertheless, the incorporation of phase-change materials (PCMs) in a particular application calls for an analysis that will enable the researcher to optimize performances of systems. Due to the non-linear nature of the problem, numerical analysis is generally required to obtain appropriate solutions for the thermal behavior of systems. Therefore, a large amount of research has been carried out on PCMs behavior predictions. The review will present models based on the first law and on the second law of thermodynamics. It shows selected results for several configurations, from numerous authors so as to enable one to start his/her research with an exhaustive overview of the subject. This overview stresses the need to match experimental investigations with recent numerical analyses since in recent years, models mostly rely on other models in their validation stages. (author)

  5. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  6. Numerical Simulation and Optimization of the Melting Process of Phase Change Material inside Horizontal Annulus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saiwei Li

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Latent heat storage (LHS technologies adopting phase change materials (PCMs are increasingly being used to bridge the spatiotemporal mismatch between energy production and demand, especially in industries like solar power, where strong cyclic fluctuations exist. The shell-and-tube configuration is among the most prevalent ones in LHS and thus draws special attention from researchers. This paper presents numerical investigations on the melting of PCM, a paraffin blend RT27, inside a horizontal annulus. The volume of fluid model was adopted to permit density changes with the solidification/melting model wherein natural convection was taken into account. The eccentricity and diameter of the inner tube, sub-cooling degree of the PCM, and the heating-surface temperature were considered as variables for study. Through the evaluation of the melting time and exergy efficiency, the optimal parameters of the horizontal annulus were obtained. The results showed that the higher the heating boundary temperature, the earlier the convection appeared and the shorter the melting time. Also, the different eccentricity and diameters of the inner tube influenced the annulus tube interior temperature distribution, which in turn determined the strength and distribution of the resulting natural convection, resulting in varying melting rates.

  7. Coarse-grained Simulations of Sugar Transport and Conformational Changes of Lactose Permease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin; Jewel, S. M. Yead; Dutta, Prashanta

    2016-11-01

    Escherichia coli lactose permease (LacY) actively transports lactose and other galactosides across cell membranes through lactose/H+ symport process. Lactose/H+ symport is a highly complex process that involves sugar translocation, H+ transfer, as well as large-scale protein conformational changes. The complete picture of lactose/H+ symport is largely unclear due to the complexity and multiscale nature of the process. In this work, we develop the force field for sugar molecules compatible with PACE, a hybrid and coarse-grained force field that couples the united-atom protein models with the coarse-grained MARTINI water/lipid. After validation, we implement the new force field to investigate the transport of a β-D-galactopyranosyl-1-thio- β-D-galactopyranoside (TDG) molecule across a wild-type LacY during lactose/H+ symport process. Results show that the local interactions between TDG and LacY at the binding pocket are consistent with the X-ray experiment. Protonation of Glu325 stabilizes the TDG and inward-facing conformation of LacY. Protonation of Glu269 induces a dramatic protein structural reorganization and causes the expulsion of TDG from LacY to both sides of the membrane. The structural changes occur primarily in the N-terminal domain of LacY. This work is supported by NSF Grants: CBET-1250107 and CBET -1604211.

  8. Succession change of microorganisms on plant waste decomposition in simulation modelling field experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Julia; Perminova, Evgenia; Khabibullina, Fluza; Kovaleva, Vera; Lapteva, Elena

    2016-04-01

    Plant waste decomposition processes are closely associated with living activity of soil microbiota in aboveground ecosystems. Functional activity of microorganisms and soil invertebrates determines plant material transformation rate whereby changes in plant material chemical composition during destruction - succession change of soil biota. The purpose of the work was revealing the mechanism of microorganisms succession change during plant waste decomposition in middle-taiga green-moss spruce forests and coniferous-deciduous secondary stands formed after earlier cut bilberry spruce forests. The study materials were undisturbed bilberry spruce forest (Sample Plot 1 - SP1) and coniferous-deciduous secondary stands which were formed after tree cutting activities of 2001-2002 (SP2) and 1969 and 1970 (SP3). Plant material decomposition intensity was determined in microcosms isolated into kapron bags with cell size of 1 mm. At SP1 and SP2, test material was living mosses and at SP3 - fallen birch and aspen leaves. Every test material was exposed for 2 years. Destruction rate was calculated as a weight loss for a particular time period. Composition of micromycetes which participated in plant material decomposition was assessed by the method of inoculation of soil extract to Getchinson's medium and acidified Czapek's medium (pH=4.5). Microbe number and biomass was analyzed by the method of luminescent microscopy. Chemical analysis of plant material was done in the certified Ecoanalytical Laboratory of the Institute of Biology Komi SC UrD RAS. Finally, plant material destruction intensity was similar for study plots and comprised 40-44 % weight loss for 2 years. The strongest differences in plant material decomposition rate between undisturbed spruce forests and secondary after-cut stands were observed at first stages of destruction process. In the first exposition year, mineralizing processes were most active in undisturbed spruce forest. Decomposition rate in cuts at that

  9. Changes in stress hormones and metabolism during a 105-day simulated Mars mission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strollo, Felice; Vassilieva, Galina; Ruscica, Massimiliano; Masini, Mariangela; Santucci, Daniela; Borgia, Luisa; Magni, Paolo; Celotti, Fabio; Nikiporuc, Igor

    2014-08-01

    The Mars-105 project was aimed at simulating crew's activities, workload, and communication during a mission to Mars, evaluating the homeostatic adaptations to prolonged confinement and cohabitation. Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and insulin, C-peptide, leptin, cortisol, and NGF and BDNF plasma levels were monitored in six healthy nonsmoking male subjects taking part in a 105-d Mars mission simulation. Samples were collected from each subject before (0 wk), during (2.5 wk; 5 wk; 10 wk; 15 wk), and after confinement (+1 wk). Confinement resulted in impaired glucometabolic parameters, since FPG increased during the first 5 wk (baseline: 85.2 ± 10.8 mg · dl⁻¹; 2.5 wk: 98.4 ± 4.7 mg · dl⁻¹; 5 wk: 92.5 ± 6.0 mg · dl⁻¹) and insulin dropped at 2.5 wk (baseline: 14.4 ± 4.8 mU · L⁻¹; 2.5 wk: 7.7 ± 2.1 mU · L⁻¹), subsequently returning to baseline values. HOMA-IR paralleled plasma insulin, dropping to 1.8 ± 0.5 at 2.5 wk (baseline: 3.0 ± 1.2). At all time-points tested, plasma leptin levels were decreased (baseline: 4.4 ± 3.3 ng · dl⁻¹; 2.5 wk: 1.6 ± 1.2 ng · dl⁻¹; 5 wk: 1.3 ± 0.8 ng · dl⁻¹; 10 wk: 1.5 ± 1.1 ng · dl⁻¹; 15 wk:1.7 ± 0.8 ng · dl⁻¹), whereas cortisol levels were increased (baseline: 10.8 ± 4.9 ng · dl⁻¹; 2.5 wk: 16.8 ± 3.5 ng · dl⁻¹; 5 wk: 18.1 ± 7.6 ng · dl⁻¹; 10 wk: 18.1 ± 8.3 ng · dl⁻¹; 15 wk:14.2 ± 4.4 ng · dl⁻¹), resulting in a negative correlation between these hormones. BDNF levels increased only at 5 and 10 wk (baseline: 67.1 ± 36.0 pg · ml⁻¹; 5 wk: 164 ± 54 pg · ml⁻¹; and 10 wk: 110.2 ± 28.9 pg · ml⁻¹). The data obtained with the Mars-105 experiment suggest that environmental stress has a strong impact upon metabolic and stress response, indicating the need for further studies and the implementation of specific countermeasures.

  10. Changes in chemical permeation of disposable latex, nitrile, and vinyl gloves exposed to simulated movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phalen, Robert N; Le, Thi; Wong, Weng Kee

    2014-01-01

    Glove movement can affect chemical permeation of organic compounds through polymer glove products. However, conflicting reports make it difficult to compare the effects of movement on chemical permeation through commonly available glove types. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of movement on chemical permeation of an organic solvent through disposable latex, nitrile, and vinyl gloves. Simulated whole-glove permeation testing was conducted using ethyl alcohol and a previously designed permeation test system. With exposure to movement, a significant decrease (p ≤ 0.001) in breakthrough time (BT) was observed for the latex (-23%) and nitrile gloves (-31%). With exposure to movement, only the nitrile glove exhibited a significant increase (p ≤ 0.001) in steady-state permeation rate (+47%) and cumulative permeation at 30 min (+111%). Even though the nitrile glove provided optimum chemical resistance against ethyl alcohol, it was most affected by movement. With exposure to movement, the latex glove was an equivalent option for overall worker protection, because it was less affected by movement and the permeation rate was lower than that of the nitrile glove. In contrast, the vinyl glove was the least affected by movement, but did not provide adequate chemical resistance to ethyl alcohol in comparison with the nitrile and latex gloves. Glove selection should take movement and polymer type into account. Some glove polymer types are less affected by movement, most notably the latex glove in this test. With nitrile gloves, at least a factor of three should be used when attempting to assign a protection factor when repetitive hand motions are anticipated. Ultimately, the latex gloves outperformed nitrile and vinyl in these tests, which evaluated the effect of movement on chemical permeation. Future research should aim to resolve some of the observed discrepancies in test results with latex and vinyl gloves.

  11. Psychological and behavioral changes during confinement in a 520-day simulated interplanetary mission to mars.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathias Basner

    Full Text Available Behavioral health risks are among the most serious and difficult to mitigate risks of confinement in space craft during long-duration space exploration missions. We report on behavioral and psychological reactions of a multinational crew of 6 healthy males confined in a 550 m(3 chamber for 520 days during the first Earth-based, high-fidelity simulated mission to Mars. Rest-activity of crewmembers was objectively measured throughout the mission with wrist-worn actigraphs. Once weekly throughout the mission crewmembers completed the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II, Profile of Moods State short form (POMS, conflict questionnaire, the Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT-B, and series of visual analogue scales on stress and fatigue. We observed substantial inter-individual differences in the behavioral responses of crewmembers to the prolonged mission confinement and isolation. The crewmember with the highest average POMS total mood disturbance score throughout the mission also reported symptoms of depression in 93% of mission weeks, which reached mild-to-moderate levels in >10% of mission weeks. Conflicts with mission control were reported five times more often than conflicts among crewmembers. Two crewmembers who had the highest ratings of stress and physical exhaustion accounted for 85% of the perceived conflicts. One of them developed a persistent sleep onset insomnia with ratings of poor sleep quality, which resulted in chronic partial sleep deprivation, elevated ratings of daytime tiredness, and frequent deficits in behavioral alertness. Sleep-wake timing was altered in two other crewmembers, beginning in the first few months of the mission and persisting throughout. Two crewmembers showed neither behavioral disturbances nor reports of psychological distress during the 17-month period of mission confinement. These results highlight the importance of identifying behavioral, psychological, and biological markers of characteristics that

  12. Density functional simulations of Sb-rich GeSbTe phase change alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabardi, S; Bernasconi, M; Caravati, S; Parrinello, M

    2012-01-01

    We generated models of the amorphous phase of Sb-rich GeSbTe phase change alloys by quenching from the melt within density functional molecular dynamics. We considered the two compositions Ge 1 Sb 1 Te 1 and Ge 2 Sb 4 Te 5 . Comparison with previous results on the most studied Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 allowed us to draw some conclusions on the dependence of the structural properties of the amorphous phase on the alloy composition. Vibrational and electronic properties were also scrutinized. Phonons at high frequencies above 200 cm -1 are localized in tetrahedra around Ge atoms in Sb-rich compounds as well as in Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 . All compounds are semiconducting in the amorphous phase, with a band gap in the range 0.7-1.0 eV.

  13. Density functional simulations of Sb-rich GeSbTe phase change alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, S.; Caravati, S.; Bernasconi, M.; Parrinello, M.

    2012-09-01

    We generated models of the amorphous phase of Sb-rich GeSbTe phase change alloys by quenching from the melt within density functional molecular dynamics. We considered the two compositions Ge1Sb1Te1 and Ge2Sb4Te5. Comparison with previous results on the most studied Ge2Sb2Te5 allowed us to draw some conclusions on the dependence of the structural properties of the amorphous phase on the alloy composition. Vibrational and electronic properties were also scrutinized. Phonons at high frequencies above 200 cm-1 are localized in tetrahedra around Ge atoms in Sb-rich compounds as well as in Ge2Sb2Te5. All compounds are semiconducting in the amorphous phase, with a band gap in the range 0.7-1.0 eV.

  14. Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, K.

    2005-12-01

    I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

  15. The acidic pH-induced structural changes in apo-CP43 by spectral methodologies and molecular dynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wang; Li, Xue; Wang, Qiuying; Zhu, Xixi; Zhang, Qingyan; Du, Linfang

    2018-01-01

    CP43 is closely associated with the photosystem II and exists the plant thylakoid membranes. The acidic pH-induced structural changes had been investigated by fluorescence spectrum, ANS spectrum, RLS spectrum, energy transfer experiment, acrylamide fluorescence quenching assay and MD simulation. The fluorescence spectrum indicated that the structural changes in acidic pH-induced process were a four-state model, which was nature state (N), partial unfolding state (PU), refolding state (R), and molten-globule state (M), respectively. Analysis of ANS spectrum illustrated that inner hydrophobic core exposed partially to surface below pH 2.0 and inferred also that the molten-globule state existed. The RLS spectrum showed the aggregation of apo-CP43 around the pI (pH 4.5-4.0). The alterations of apo-CP43 secondary structure with different acidic treatments were confirmed by FTIR spectrum. The energy transfer experiment and quenching research demonstrated structural change at pH 4.0 was loosest. The RMSF suggested two terminals played an important function in acidic denaturation process. The distance of two terminals shown slight difference in acidic pH-induced process during the unfolding process, both N-terminal and C-terminal occupied the dominant role. However, the N-terminal accounted for the main part in the refolding process. All kinds of SASA values corresponded to spectral results. The tertiary and secondary structure by MD simulation indicated that the part transmembrane α-helix was destroyed at low pH.

  16. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  17. A Simulation Modeling Framework to Optimize Programs Using Financial Incentives to Motivate Health Behavior Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: To generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated "demand curves" capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated: that is, the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  18. Changes in monkey crystalline lens spherical aberration during simulated accommodation in a lens stretcher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maceo Heilman, Bianca; Manns, Fabrice; de Castro, Alberto; Durkee, Heather; Arrieta, Esdras; Marcos, Susana; Parel, Jean-Marie

    2015-02-10

    The purpose of this study was to quantify accommodation-induced changes in the spherical aberration of cynomolgus monkey lenses. Twenty-four lenses from 20 cynomolgus monkeys (Macaca fascicularis; 4.4-16.0 years of age; postmortem time 13.5 ± 13.0 hours) were mounted in a lens stretcher. Lens spherical aberration was measured in the unstretched (accommodated) and stretched (relaxed) states with a laser ray tracing system that delivered 51 equally spaced parallel rays along 1 meridian of the lens over the central 6-mm optical zone. A camera mounted below the lens was used to measure the ray height at multiple positions along the optical axis. For each entrance ray, the change in ray height with axial position was fitted with a third-order polynomial. The effective paraxial focal length and Zernike spherical aberration coefficients corresponding to a 6-mm pupil diameter were extracted from the fitted values. The unstretched lens power decreased with age from 59.3 ± 4.0 diopters (D) for young lenses to 45.7 ± 3.1 D for older lenses. The unstretched lens shifted toward less negative spherical aberration with age, from -6.3 ± 0.7 μm for young lenses to -5.0 ± 0.5 μm for older lenses. The power and spherical aberration of lenses in the stretched state were independent of age, with values of 33.5 ± 3.4 D and -2.6 ± 0.5 μm, respectively. Spherical aberration is negative in cynomolgus monkey lenses and becomes more negative with accommodation. These results are in good agreement with the predicted values using computational ray tracing in a lens model with a reconstructed gradient refractive index. The spherical aberration of the unstretched lens becomes less negative with age. Copyright 2015 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

  19. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. Response of permafrost to projected climate change: Results from global offline model simulations with JSBACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. In order to assess the response of permafrost to projected climate change for the 21st century, the land surface scheme of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, has recently been equipped with the important physical processes for permafrost studies, and was driven globally with bias corrected climate data, thereby spanning a period from 1850 until 2100. The applied land surface scheme JSBACH now considers the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. To address the uncertainty range arising through different greenhouse gas concentrations as well as through different climate realisations when using various climate models, combinations of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two GCMs were used as driving data. In order to focus only on the climatic impact on permafrost, effects due to feedbacks between climate and permafrost (namely via carbon fluxes between land and atmosphere) are excluded in the experiments

  1. Sensitivity and spin-up times of cohesive sediment transport models used to simulate bathymetric change: Chapter 31

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoellhamer, D.H.; Ganju, N.K.; Mineart, P.R.; Lionberger, M.A.; Kusuda, T.; Yamanishi, H.; Spearman, J.; Gailani, J. Z.

    2008-01-01

    Bathymetric change in tidal environments is modulated by watershed sediment yield, hydrodynamic processes, benthic composition, and anthropogenic activities. These multiple forcings combine to complicate simple prediction of bathymetric change; therefore, numerical models are necessary to simulate sediment transport. Errors arise from these simulations, due to inaccurate initial conditions and model parameters. We investigated the response of bathymetric change to initial conditions and model parameters with a simplified zero-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model, and a tidally averaged box model. The zero-dimensional model consists of a well-mixed control volume subjected to a semidiurnal tide, with a cohesive sediment bed. Typical cohesive sediment parameters were utilized for both the bed and suspended sediment. The model was run until equilibrium in terms of bathymetric change was reached, where equilibrium is defined as less than the rate of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay (2.17 mm/year). Using this state as the initial condition, model parameters were perturbed 10% to favor deposition, and the model was resumed. Perturbed parameters included, but were not limited to, maximum tidal current, erosion rate constant, and critical shear stress for erosion. Bathymetric change was most sensitive to maximum tidal current, with a 10% perturbation resulting in an additional 1.4 m of deposition over 10 years. Re-establishing equilibrium in this model required 14 years. The next most sensitive parameter was the critical shear stress for erosion; when increased 10%, an additional 0.56 m of sediment was deposited and 13 years were required to re-establish equilibrium. The two-dimensional hydrodynamic/sediment transport model was calibrated to suspended-sediment concentration, and despite robust solution of hydrodynamic conditions it was unable to accurately hindcast bathymetric change. The tidally averaged

  2. Fluxes of N2O and CH4 from forest and grassland lysimeter soils in response to simulated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weymann, Daniel; Brueggemann, Nicolas; Puetz, Thomas; Vereecken, Harry

    2015-04-01

    Central Europe is expected to be exposed to altered temperature and hydrological conditions, which will affect the vulnerability of nitrogen and carbon cycling in soils and thus production and fluxes of climate relevant trace gases. However, knowledge of the response of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate change is limited so far, but will be an important basis for future climate projections. Here we present preliminary results of an ongoing lysimeter field study which aims to assess the impact of simulated climate change on N2O and CH4 fluxes from a forest and a fertilized grassland soil. The lysimeters are part of the Germany-wide research infrastructure TERENO, which investigates feedbacks of climate change to the pedosphere on a long-term scale. Lysimeters (A = 1m2) were established in 2010 at high elevated sites (HE, 500 and 600 m.a.s.l.) and subsequently transferred along an altitudinal gradient to a low elevated site (LE, 100 m.a.s.l.) within the Eifel / Lower Rhine Valley Observatory in Western Germany, thereby resulting in a temperature increase of 2.3 K whereas precipitation decreased by 160 mm during the present study period. Systematic monitoring of soil-atmosphere exchange of N2O and CH4 based on weekly manual closed chamber measurements at HE and LE sites has started in August 2013. Furthermore, we routinely determine dissolved N2O and CH4 concentrations in the seepage water using a headspace equilibration technique and record water discharge in order to quantify leaching losses of both greenhouse gases. Cumulative N2O fluxes clearly responded to simulated climate change conditions and increased by 250 % and 600 % for the forest and the grassland soil, respectively. This difference between the HE and LE sites was mainly caused by an exceptionally heavy precipitation event in July 2014 which turned the LE site sustainably to a consistently higher emission level. Nonetheless, emissions remained rather small and ranged between 20 and 40 μg m-2 h-1. In

  3. Changes of contractile responses due to simulated weightlessness in rat soleus muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elkhammari, A.; Noireaud, J.; Léoty, C.

    1994-08-01

    Some contractile and electrophysiological properties of muscle fibers isolated from the slow-twitch soleus (SOL) and fast-twitch extensor digitorum longus (EDL) muscles of rats were compared with those measured in SOL muscles from suspended rats. In suspendede SOL (21 days of tail-suspension) membrane potential (Em), intracellular sodium activity (aiNa) and the slope of the relationship between Em and log [K]o were typical of fast-twitch muscles. The relation between the maximal amplitude of K-contractures vs Em was steeper for control SOL than for EDL and suspended SOL muscles. After suspension, in SOL muscles the contractile threshold and the inactivation curves for K-contractures were shifted to more positive Em. Repriming of K-contractures was unaffected by suspencion. The exposure of isolated fibers to perchlorate (ClO4-)-containing (6-40 mM) solutions resulted ina similar concentration-dependent shift to more negative Em of activation curves for EDL and suspended SOL muscles. On exposure to a Na-free TEA solution, SOL from control and suspended rats, in contrast to EDL muscles, generated slow contractile responses. Suspended SOL showed a reduced sensitivity to the contracture-producing effect of caffeine compared to control muscles. These results suggested that the modification observed due to suspension could be encounted by changes in the characteristics of muscle fibers from slow to fast-twitch type.

  4. Virtual TeamSTEPPS(®) Simulations Produce Teamwork Attitude Changes Among Health Professions Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweigart, Linda I; Umoren, Rachel A; Scott, Patrician J; Carlton, Kay Hodson; Jones, James A; Truman, Barbara; Gossett, Evalyn J

    2016-01-01

    The majority of the estimated 400,000 or more patient deaths per year in the United States are from preventable medical errors due to poor communication. Team training programs have been established to teach teamwork skills to health professions students. However, it is often challenging to provide this training at a physical site. A brief intervention using a virtual learning environment with TeamSTEPPS(®)-based scenarios is described. Using a pretest-posttest design, the effects on teamwork attitudes in 109 health professional students from two institutions and multiple disciplines were measured using the TeamSTEPPS Teamwork Attitudes questionnaire. Participants showed significant attitude changes in the categories of leadership, situation monitoring, mutual support, and communication (p ⩽ .05), with significance in four of the six indicator attitudes in the communication section at the p ⩽ .001 level. These findings indicate the potential impact that virtual learning experiences may have on teamwork attitudes in learners across professions on multiple campuses. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  5. Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butchart, N. [Met Office, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); Scaife, A.A. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Bourqui, M. [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); McGill University, Montreal (Canada); Grandpre, J. de [McGill University, Montreal (Canada); Hare, S.H.E. [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading (United Kingdom); Kettleborough, J. [British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Laboratory, Didcot (United Kingdom); Langematz, U. [Freie Universitaet of Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Manzini, E. [National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology, Bologna (Italy); Sassi, F. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Shibata, K. [Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Shindell, D. [NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York (United States); Sigmond, M. [University of Toronto, Toronto (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    The effect of climate change on the Brewer-Dobson circulation and, in particular, the large-scale seasonal-mean transport between the troposphere and stratosphere is compared in a number of middle atmosphere general circulation models. All the models reproduce the observed upwelling across the tropical tropopause balanced by downwelling in the extra tropics, though the seasonal cycle in upwelling in some models is more semi-annual than annual. All the models also consistently predict an increase in the mass exchange rate in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations, irrespective of whether or not the model includes interactive ozone chemistry. The mean trend is 11 kt s{sup -1} year{sup -1} or about 2% per decade but varies considerably between models. In all but one of the models the increase in mass exchange occurs throughout the year though, generally, the trend is larger during the boreal winter. On average, more than 60% of the mean mass fluxes can be explained by the EP-flux divergence using the downward control principle. Trends in the annual mean mass fluxes derived from the EP-flux divergence also explain about 60% of the trend in the troposphere-to-stratosphere mass exchange rate when averaged over all the models. Apart from two models the interannual variability in the downward control derived and actual mass fluxes were generally well correlated, for the annual mean. (orig.)

  6. Changes in micro-relief during different water erosive stages of purple soil under simulated rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jian; Zheng, Zicheng; Li, Tingxuan; He, Shuqin

    2018-02-22

    This study investigated the variation characteristics of micro-topography during successive erosive stages of water erosion: splash erosion (SpE), sheet erosion (ShE), and rill erosion (RE). Micro-topography was quantified using surface elevation change, soil roughness (SR) and multifractal model. Results showed that the area of soil surface elevation decay increased gradually with the development of water erosion. With rainfall, the combined effects of the detachment by raindrop impact and the transport of runoff decreased SR, whereas rill erosion contributed to increase SR. With the increase in slope gradient, soil erosion area gradually decreased at the splash erosion stage. By contrast, soil erosion area initially decreased and then increased at the sheet and rill erosion stages. The width of the D q spectra (ΔD) values increased at the splash erosion stage and then decreased at the sheet and rill erosion stages on the 10° slope, opposite to that on the 15° slope. The ΔD values decreased with the evolution of water erosive stages on the 20° slope. The slope had an enhancing effect on the evolution of water erosion. In this study, we clarified the essence of micro-topography and laid a theoretical foundation for further understanding diverse hydrological processes.

  7. Body composition and metabolic changes during a 520-day mission simulation to Mars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strollo, F; Macchi, C; Eberini, I; Masini, M A; Botta, M; Vassilieva, G; Nichiporuk, I; Monici, M; Santucci, D; Celotti, F; Magni, P; Ruscica, M

    2018-03-12

    The "Mars-500 project" allowed to evaluate the changes in psychological/physiological adaptation over a prolonged confinement, in order to gather information for future missions. Here, we evaluated the impact of confinement and isolation on body composition, glucose metabolism/insulin resistance and adipokine levels. The "Mars-500 project" consisted of 520 consecutive days of confinement from June 3, 2010 to Nov 4, 2011. The crew was composed of six male subjects (three Russians, two Europeans, and one Chinese) with a median age of 31 years (range 27-38 years). During the 520-day confinement, total body mass and BMI progressively decreased, reaching a significant difference at the end (417 days) of the observation period (- 9.2 and - 5.5%, respectively). Fat mass remained unchanged. A progressive and significant increase of fasting plasma glucose was observed between 249 and 417 days (+ 10/+ 17% vs baseline), with a further increase at the end of confinement (up to + 30%). Median plasma insulin showed a non-significant early increment (60 days; + 86%). Total adiponectin halved (- 47%) 60 days after hatch closure, remaining at this nadir (- 51%) level for a further 60 days. High molecular weight adiponectin remained significantly lower from 60 to 168 days. Based on these data, countermeasures may be envisioned to balance the potentially harmful effects of prolonged confinement, including a better exercise program, with accurate monitoring of (1) the individual activity and (2) the relationship between body composition and metabolic derangement.

  8. Long term, non-anthropogenic groundwater storage changes simulated by a global land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, B.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Groundwater is crucial for meeting agricultural, industrial and municipal water needs, especially in arid, semi-arid and drought impacted regions. Yet, knowledge on groundwater response to climate variability is not well understood due to lack of systematic and continuous in situ measurements. In this study, we investigate global non-anthropogenic groundwater storage variations with a land surface model driven by a 67-year (1948-204) meteorological forcing data set. Model estimates were evaluated using in situ groundwater data from the central and northeastern U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and found to be reasonable. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed to examine modes of variability of groundwater storage and their relationship with atmospheric effects such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. The result shows that the leading mode in global groundwater storage reflects the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Consistent with the EOF analysis, global total groundwater storage reflected the low frequency variability of ENSO and decreased significantly over 1948-2014 while global ET and precipitation did not exhibit statistically significant trends. This study suggests that while precipitation and ET are the primary drivers of climate related groundwater variability, changes in other forcing fields than precipitation and temperature are also important because of their influence on ET. We discuss the need to improve model physics and to continuously validate model estimates and forcing data for future studies.

  9. Simulation climate change impact on runoff and sediment yield in a small watershed in the basque country, northern Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zabaleta, Ane; Meaurio, Maite; Ruiz, Estilita; Antigüedad, Iñaki

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  10. Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-12-01

    For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.

  11. Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hanqing; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Fan, Dongli; Shi, Runhe; Niu, Yilong; He, Xiaogang; Chen, Maosi

    2017-09-01

    Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years' (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

  12. Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2017-07-01

    Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive ( Eupatorium catarium , Mikania micrantha , Biodens pilosa var. radiate , Ageratum conyzoides ) in China, and four are native ( Sonchus arvensis , Senecios candens , Pterocypsela indica , Eupatorium fortunei ). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment ( T c ) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTR sym ), asymmetric warming with increased (DTR inc ) and decreased (DTR dec ) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTR sym and DTR inc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTR sym and DTR inc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTR sym , DTR dec decreased the biomass of

  13. Simulated space radiation-induced mutants in the mouse kidney display widespread genomic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitchell S Turker

    Full Text Available Exposure to a small number of high-energy heavy charged particles (HZE ions, as found in the deep space environment, could significantly affect astronaut health following prolonged periods of space travel if these ions induce mutations and related cancers. In this study, we used an in vivo mutagenesis assay to define the mutagenic effects of accelerated 56Fe ions (1 GeV/amu, 151 keV/μm in the mouse kidney epithelium exposed to doses ranging from 0.25 to 2.0 Gy. These doses represent fluences ranging from 1 to 8 particle traversals per cell nucleus. The Aprt locus, located on chromosome 8, was used to select induced and spontaneous mutants. To fully define the mutagenic effects, we used multiple endpoints including mutant frequencies, mutation spectrum for chromosome 8, translocations involving chromosome 8, and mutations affecting non-selected chromosomes. The results demonstrate mutagenic effects that often affect multiple chromosomes for all Fe ion doses tested. For comparison with the most abundant sparsely ionizing particle found in space, we also examined the mutagenic effects of high-energy protons (1 GeV, 0.24 keV/μm at 0.5 and 1.0 Gy. Similar doses of protons were not as mutagenic as Fe ions for many assays, though genomic effects were detected in Aprt mutants at these doses. Considered as a whole, the data demonstrate that Fe ions are highly mutagenic at the low doses and fluences of relevance to human spaceflight, and that cells with considerable genomic mutations are readily induced by these exposures and persist in the kidney epithelium. The level of genomic change produced by low fluence exposure to heavy ions is reminiscent of the extensive rearrangements seen in tumor genomes suggesting a potential initiation step in radiation carcinogenesis.

  14. Simulated space radiation-induced mutants in the mouse kidney display widespread genomic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turker, Mitchell S; Grygoryev, Dmytro; Lasarev, Michael; Ohlrich, Anna; Rwatambuga, Furaha A; Johnson, Sorrel; Dan, Cristian; Eckelmann, Bradley; Hryciw, Gwen; Mao, Jian-Hua; Snijders, Antoine M; Gauny, Stacey; Kronenberg, Amy

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to a small number of high-energy heavy charged particles (HZE ions), as found in the deep space environment, could significantly affect astronaut health following prolonged periods of space travel if these ions induce mutations and related cancers. In this study, we used an in vivo mutagenesis assay to define the mutagenic effects of accelerated 56Fe ions (1 GeV/amu, 151 keV/μm) in the mouse kidney epithelium exposed to doses ranging from 0.25 to 2.0 Gy. These doses represent fluences ranging from 1 to 8 particle traversals per cell nucleus. The Aprt locus, located on chromosome 8, was used to select induced and spontaneous mutants. To fully define the mutagenic effects, we used multiple endpoints including mutant frequencies, mutation spectrum for chromosome 8, translocations involving chromosome 8, and mutations affecting non-selected chromosomes. The results demonstrate mutagenic effects that often affect multiple chromosomes for all Fe ion doses tested. For comparison with the most abundant sparsely ionizing particle found in space, we also examined the mutagenic effects of high-energy protons (1 GeV, 0.24 keV/μm) at 0.5 and 1.0 Gy. Similar doses of protons were not as mutagenic as Fe ions for many assays, though genomic effects were detected in Aprt mutants at these doses. Considered as a whole, the data demonstrate that Fe ions are highly mutagenic at the low doses and fluences of relevance to human spaceflight, and that cells with considerable genomic mutations are readily induced by these exposures and persist in the kidney epithelium. The level of genomic change produced by low fluence exposure to heavy ions is reminiscent of the extensive rearrangements seen in tumor genomes suggesting a potential initiation step in radiation carcinogenesis.

  15. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

    2004-01-01

    Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

  16. Simulating vegetation dynamics in Chile from 21ka BP to present: Effects of climate change on vegetation functions and cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Christian; Liakka, Johan; Schmid, Manuel; Fuentes, Juan-Pablo; Ehlers, Todd A.; Hickler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    Vegetation composition and establishment is strongly dependent on climate conditions but also a result of vegetation dynamics (competition for light, water and nutrients). In addition, vegetation exerts control over the development of landscapes as it mediates the climatic and hydrological forces shaping the terrain via hillslope and fluvial processes. At the same time, topography as well as soil texture and soil depth affect the microclimate, soil water storage and rooting space that is defining the environmental envelope for vegetation development. Within the EarthShape research program (www.earthshape.net) we evaluate these interactions by simulating the co-evolution of landscape and vegetation with a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) and a landscape evolution model (LandLab). LPJ-GUESS is a mechanistic model driven by daily or monthly weather data and explicitly simulates vegetation physiology, succession, competition and water and nutrient cycling. Here we present the results of first transient vegetation simulations from 21kyr BP to present-day using the TraCE-21ka climate dataset for four focus sites along the coastal cordillera of Chile that are exposed to a substantial meridional climate gradient (ranging from hyper-arid to humid-temperate conditions). We show that the warming occurring in the region from LGM to present, in addition to the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, led to a shift in vegetation composition and surface cover. Future work will show how these changes resonate in the dynamics of hillslope and fluvial erosion and ultimately bi-directional feedback mechanisms of vegetation development and landscape evolution/ soil formation (see also companion presentation by Schmid et al., this session).

  17. Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

    2011-01-01

    The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring

  18. Assessing the impacts of climate change on future precipitation trends based on downscaled cmip5 simulations data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mentgal, A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates future changes in precipitation over the CRB (Columbia River Basin) in both wet (DJF) and dry (JJA) seasons under RCP85 GHG emission scenario. The simulations from four climate models which participated in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) were downscaled using the BCSD (Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation) method. After downscaling, extreme value analysis and MME (Multi Model Ensemble) averaging is performed. This study focuses on computing 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return levels for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. The maximum winter precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods have been estimated to be about 112, 127, 148 and 171 mm/day respectively whereas the maximum summer precipitation values for 2, 5, 10 and 25 years return periods are observed to be about 56, 81, 96 and 126 mm/day respectively. The MME average outperformed the individual models in simulating the historical precipitation in both seasons. The MME results showed a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in both future wet and dry seasons. Largest increase in precipitation occurs over the higher elevations of the Cascades Range, Coast Range and the Mountainous Range. (author)

  19. Mediterranean water cycle changes: transi