WorldWideScience

Sample records for change risk assessment

  1. Multi-risk assessment: from natural hazards to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    The World Bank report on the main hotspots of natural hazards highlights that million people in the world are relatively highly exposed to at least two hazards and additional impacts on natural and human systems can be posed by climate change. Therefore, a major challenge for natural hazard and climate impact research is to develop new methods and tools for the aggregation of cumulative effects expected from multiple impacts forced by natural and anthropogenic drivers across different regions and sectors, taking into account changing climate, exposure and vulnerability. So far, a hazard by hazard approach has been generally applied for evaluating the consequences of natural and climate change hazards on the analyzed region (e.g. heavy precipitations, floods, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges). However, different natural hazards and climate-related impacts affecting a region should be handled according to a multi-risk approach in order to aggregate, compare and rank different kinds of concurrent impacts caused by climate change. Several EU funded projects (e.g. ESPON-HAZARD, ARMONIA, MATRIX) were developed so far in order to provide sound scientific advancement towards the elaboration of multi-risk approaches. A full multi-risk approach entails both a multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability perspective. However, internationally, most of the work concerning multi-hazards focused especially on natural hazards (e.g. flooding, storm surges, landslides, seismicity, droughts) affecting the same area. Moreover, multi-risk approaches developed so far refer only to the assessment of different hazards and rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities for different exposed elements), also called multi-hazard risk assessment. A relevant challenge is therefore to develop a comprehensive formal approach for the assessment of different natural and climate-induced hazards and risks at the regional scale. A critical review of existing

  2. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  3. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  4. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO2 emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO2 conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO2 was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO2, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights: • We have limited

  5. Temporal constraints on predation risk assessment in a changing world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chivers, Douglas P., E-mail: doug.chivers@usask.ca [Department of Biology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5E2 (Canada); Ramasamy, Ryan A.; McCormick, Mark I.; Watson, Sue-Ann [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville Qld4811 (Australia); Siebeck, Ulrike E. [School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane Qld4072 (Australia); Ferrari, Maud C.O. [Department of Biomedical Sciences, WCVM, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7W 5B4 (Canada)

    2014-12-01

    Habitat degradation takes various forms and likely represents the most significant threat to our global biodiversity. Recently, we have seen considerable attention paid to increasing global CO{sub 2} emissions which lead to ocean acidification (OA). Other stressors, such as changing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), also impact biodiversity but have received much less attention in the recent past. Here we examine fundamental questions about temporal aspects of risk assessment by coral reef damselfish and provide critical insights into how OA and UVR influence this assessment. Chemical cues released during a predator attack provide a rich source of information that other prey animals use to mediate their risk of predation and are the basis of the majority of trait-mediated indirect interactions in aquatic communities. However, we have surprisingly limited information about temporal aspects of risk assessment because we lack knowledge about how long chemical cues persist after they are released into the environment. Here, we showed that under ambient CO{sub 2} conditions (∼ 385 μatm), alarm cues of ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis) did not degrade within 30 min in the absence of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), but were degraded within 15 min when the CO{sub 2} was increased to ∼ 905 μatm. In experiments that used filters to eliminate UVR, we found minimal degradation of alarm cues within 30 min, whereas under ambient UVR conditions, alarm cues were completely degraded within 15 min. Moreover, in the presence of both UVR and elevated CO{sub 2}, alarm cues were broken down within 5 min. Our results highlight that alarm cues degrade surprisingly quickly under natural conditions and that anthropogenic changes have the potential to dramatically change rates of cue degradation in the wild. This has considerable implications for risk assessment and consequently the importance of trait-mediated indirect interactions in coral-reef communities. - Highlights:

  6. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  7. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. PMID:26282744

  8. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten;

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  9. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  10. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The radiation hormesis hypothesis is discussed claiming that low dose ionizing radiation shows positive biological effects. The hypothesis could not be demonstrably proved. In the last decade, new disciplines have been developing, such as risk assessment and risk management that, on the basis of proven results and the consideration of all circumstances quantitatively assess and test possible risks. (M.D.). 1 fig

  11. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  12. A Framework for Assessing Global Change Risks to Forest Carbon Stocks in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher W Woodall; Grant M Domke; Riley, Karin L.; Christopher M Oswalt; Crocker, Susan J.; Yohe, Gary W.

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the c...

  13. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F; Rötter, R P; Bindi, M;

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess cli...

  14. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  15. Assessment of mycotoxin risk on corn in the Philippines under current and future climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvacion, Arnold R; Pangga, Ireneo B; Cumagun, Christian Joseph R

    2015-01-01

    This study attempts to assess the risk of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and fumonisins) contamination on corn in the Philippines under current and projected climate change conditions using fuzzy logic methodology based on the published range of temperature and rainfall conditions that favor mycotoxin development. Based on the analysis, projected climatic change will reduce the risk of aflatoxin contamination in the country due to increased rainfall. In the case of fumonisin contamination, most parts of the country are at a very high risk both under current conditions and the projected climate change conditions.

  16. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...

  17. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Gardali; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

    2012-01-01

    Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified clim...

  18. Cardiovascular risk assessment - From individual risk prediction to estimation of global risk and change in risk in the population

    OpenAIRE

    Batsis John A; Lopez-Jimenez Francisco

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of death and risk prediction formulae such as the Framingham Risk Score have been developed to easily identify patients at high risk that may require therapeutic interventions. Discussion Using cardiovascular risk formulae at a population level to estimate and compare average cardiovascular risk among groups has been recently proposed as a way to facilitate surveillance of net cardiovascular risk and target public health inte...

  19. Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU: what factors and groups influence policy changes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hunka, Agnieszka D.; Meli, Mattia; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E.

    2015-01-01

    For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a stu

  20. Associating Changes in the Immune System with Clinical Diseases for Interpretation in Risk Assessment##

    Science.gov (United States)

    This overview is a revision to the unit originally published in 2004. While the basic tenants of immunotoxicity have not changed in the past 10 years, several publications have explored the application of immunotoxicological data to the risk assessment process. Therefore, the goa...

  1. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  2. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  3. Incorporating climate and ocean change into extinction risk assessments for 82 coral species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainard, Russell E; Weijerman, Mariska; Eakin, C Mark; McElhany, Paul; Miller, Margaret W; Patterson, Matt; Piniak, Gregory A; Dunlap, Matthew J; Birkeland, Charles

    2013-12-01

    Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration-requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert-opinion threat-based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species-specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species' extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data-limited species likely to be affected by global-scale threats

  4. The evolution of global disaster risk assessments: from hazard to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2013-04-01

    The perception of disaster risk as a dynamic process interlinked with global change is a fairly recent concept. It gradually emerged as an evolution from new scientific theories, currents of thinking and lessons learned from large disasters since the 1970s. The interest was further heighten, in the mid-1980s, by the Chernobyl nuclear accident and the discovery of the ozone layer hole, both bringing awareness that dangerous hazards can generate global impacts. The creation of the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) and the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990 reinforced the interest for global risk assessment. First global risk models including hazard, exposure and vulnerability components were available since mid-2000s. Since then increased computation power and more refined datasets resolution, led to more numerous and sophisticated global risk models. This article presents a recent history of global disaster risk models, the current status of researches for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR 2013) and future challenges and limitations for the development of next generation global disaster risk models.

  5. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  6. Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

  7. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  8. Methodology of risk assessment of loss of water resources due to climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israfilov, Yusif; Israfilov, Rauf; Guliyev, Hatam; Afandiyev, Galib

    2016-04-01

    For sustainable development and management of rational use of water resources of Azerbaijan Republic it is actual to forecast their changes taking into account different scenarios of climate changes and assessment of possible risks of loss of sections of water resources. The major part of the Azerbaijani territory is located in the arid climate and the vast majority of water is used in the national economic production. An optimal use of conditional groundwater and surface water is of great strategic importance for economy of the country in terms of lack of common water resources. Low annual rate of sediments, high evaporation and complex natural and hydrogeological conditions prevent sustainable formation of conditioned resources of ground and surface water. In addition, reserves of fresh water resources are not equally distributed throughout the Azerbaijani territory. The lack of the common water balance creates tension in the rational use of fresh water resources in various sectors of the national economy, especially in agriculture, and as a result, in food security of the republic. However, the fresh water resources of the republic have direct proportional dependence on climatic factors. 75-85% of the resources of ground stratum-pore water of piedmont plains and fracture-vein water of mountain regions are formed by the infiltration of rainfall and condensate water. Changes of climate parameters involve changes in the hydrological cycle of the hydrosphere and as a rule, are reflected on their resources. Forecasting changes of water resources of the hydrosphere with different scenarios of climate change in regional mathematical models allowed estimating the extent of their relationship and improving the quality of decisions. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to obtain additional data for risk assessment and management to reduce water resources for a detailed analysis, forecasting the quantitative and qualitative parameters of resources, and also for

  9. Assessing continental-scale risks for generalist and specialist pollinating bee species under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Roberts

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Increased risks of extinction to populations of animals and plants under changing climate have now been demonstrated for many taxa. This study assesses the extinction risks to species within an important genus of pollinating bees (Colletes: Apidae by estimating the expected changes in the area and isolation of suitable habitat under predicted climatic condition for 2050. Suitable habitat was defined on the basis of the presence of known forage plants as well as climatic suitability. To investigate whether ecological specialisation was linked to extinction risk we compared three species which were generalist pollen foragers on several plant families with three species which specialised on pollen from a single plant species. Both specialist and generalist species showed an increased risk of extinction with shifting climate, and this was particularly high for the most specialised species (Colletes anchusae and C. wolfi. The forage generalist C. impunctatus, which is associated with Boreo-Alpine environments, is potentially threatened through significant reduction in available climatic niche space. Including the distribution of the principal or sole pollen forage plant, when modelling the distribution of monolectic or narrowly oligolectic species, did not improve the predictive accuracy of our models as the plant species were considerably more widespread than the specialised bees associated with them.

  10. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  11. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......, and increases in storm surge levels of up to 0.8 m in 2100 are estimated. The changes in extreme catchment run-off and sea water level have a significant effect on the flood risk in the river system. While most parts today have a low risk of dike overtopping with annual exceedance probabilities of 0.1 % or less...

  12. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  13. A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Gardali

    Full Text Available Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

  14. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc

  15. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, Erik [MINES ParisTech Crisis and Risk Research Centre (CRC), Sophia Antipolis Cedex (France)

    2012-11-15

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc.

  16. Assessing Ecological Flow Needs and Risks for Springs and Baseflow Streams With Growth and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, A. E.; Stevens, L. E.

    2008-12-01

    Ecological flow needs assessments are beginning to become an important part of regulated river management, but are more challenging for unregulated rivers. Water needs for ecosystems are greater than just consumptive use by riparian and aquatic vegetation and include the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of flows and the depth and annual fluctuations of groundwater levels of baseflow supported streams. An ecological flow needs assessment was adapted and applied to an unregulated, baseflow dependent river in the arid to semi-arid Southwestern U.S. A separate process was developed to determine groundwater sources potentially at risk from climate, land management, or groundwater use changes in a large regional groundwater basin in the same semi-arid region. In 2007 and 2008, workshops with ecological, cultural, and physical experts from agencies, universities, tribes, and other organizations were convened. Flow-ecology response functions were developed with either conceptual or actual information for a baseflow dependent river, and scoring systems were developed to assign values to categories of risks to groundwater sources in a large groundwater basin. A reduction of baseflow to the river was predicted to lead to a decline in cottonwood and willow tree abundance, decreases in riparian forest diversity, and increases in non-native tree species, such as tamarisk. These types of forest vegetation changes would likely cause reductions or loss of some bird species. Loss of riffle habitat through declines in groundwater discharge and the associated river levels would likely lead to declines in native fish and amphibian species. A research agenda was developed to develop techniques to monitor, assess and hopefully better manage the aquifers supporting the baseflow dependent river to prevent potential threshold responses of the ecosystems. The scoring system for categories of risk was applied to four systems (aquifers, springs, standing water bodies, and streams) in

  17. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  18. Integrated flood risk assessment for the Mekong Delta through the combined assessment of flood hazard change and social vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, Heiko; Garschagen, Matthias; Delgado, José Miguel; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Van Tuan, Vo; Thanh Binh, Nguyen; Birkmann, Joern; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Low lying estuaries as the Mekong Delta in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable areas with respect to climate change impacts. While regular floods are not a threat but an opportunity for livelihoods and income generation, extreme flood events can pose considerable risks to the people living in Deltas. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme floods globally, which in combination with sea level rise and a likely intensification of cyclone activity creates increased and/or entirely new hazard exposure in the Deltas. Yet, in line with the risk literature and especially the recent IPCC SREX report, flooding risk needs to be understood as deriving from the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerabilities of exposed elements. Therefore, the paper aims for an integrated risk assessment through combining the most up to date estimates of flood hazard projections under climate change conditions in the Mekong Delta with the assessment of vulnerability patterns. Projections of flood hazard are estimated based the modulation of the flood frequency distribution by atmospheric circulation patterns. Future projections of these patterns are calculated from an ensemble of climate models. A quasi two-dimensional hydrodynamical model of the Delta is then applied to estimate water levels and flood extend. This model is fed with a set of hydrographs which are based on both the derived climate model uncertainty and the bivariate nature of floods in the Mekong Delta. Flood peak is coupled with flood volume in the probabilistic framework to derive synthetic extreme future floods with associated probabilities of occurrence. This flood hazard analysis is combined with static sea level rise scenarios, which alter the lower boundary of the hydrodynamic model and give estimates of the impact on sea level rise on inundation extend and depths. The vulnerability assessment is based on a three step approach. Firstly, vulnerability profiles are developed for different

  19. Assessment of coastal flood risk in a changing climate along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.

    2014-12-01

    Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). We have developed a novel framework to construct a physics-based storm surge model that includes projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios. Numerous experiments were conducted and it was concluded that a number of influencing factors, other than SLR, should be included in future assessments of coastal flooding under climate change; e.g., shoreline changes, barrier island morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. These factors can significantly affect the path, pattern, and magnitude of flooding depths and inundation along the coastline (Bilskie et al., 2014; Passeri et al., 2014). Using these factors, a storm surge model of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) representing present day conditions is modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape. This adapted model is then used to assess flood risk in terms of the 100-year floodplain surface under SLR scenarios. A suite of hundreds of synthetic storms, derived by JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method - Optimum Sampling), are filtered to obtain the storms necessary to represent the statistically determined 100-year floodplain. The NGOM storm surge model is applied to simulate the synthetic storms and determine, for each storm, the flooding surface and depth, for four SLR scenarios for the year 2100 as prescribed by Parris et al. (2012). The collection of results facilitate the estimation of water surface elevation vs. frequency curves across the floodplain and the statistically defined 100-year floodplain is extracted. This novel method to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme

  20. Public Risk Assessment Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendeck, Gavin

    2010-01-01

    The Public Entry Risk Assessment (PERA) program addresses risk to the public from shuttle or other spacecraft re-entry trajectories. Managing public risk to acceptable levels is a major component of safe spacecraft operation. PERA is given scenario inputs of vehicle trajectory, probability of failure along that trajectory, the resulting debris characteristics, and field size and distribution, and returns risk metrics that quantify the individual and collective risk posed by that scenario. Due to the large volume of data required to perform such a risk analysis, PERA was designed to streamline the analysis process by using innovative mathematical analysis of the risk assessment equations. Real-time analysis in the event of a shuttle contingency operation, such as damage to the Orbiter, is possible because PERA allows for a change to the probability of failure models, therefore providing a much quicker estimation of public risk. PERA also provides the ability to generate movie files showing how the entry risk changes as the entry develops. PERA was designed to streamline the computation of the enormous amounts of data needed for this type of risk assessment by using an average distribution of debris on the ground, rather than pinpointing the impact point of every piece of debris. This has reduced the amount of computational time significantly without reducing the accuracy of the results. PERA was written in MATLAB; a compiled version can run from a DOS or UNIX prompt.

  1. Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model

  2. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Rosamond L; Battisti, David S; Vimont, Daniel J; Falcon, Walter P; Burke, Marshall B

    2007-05-01

    El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems. PMID:17483453

  3. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  4. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  5. Assessing potential changes of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Mário; Calheiros, Tomas; Pinto, Joaquim; Caramelo, Liliana

    2013-04-01

    Weather conditions play an important role during different phases of the vegetative cycle of the chestnut trees and, consequently, several meteorological parameters seem to be associated chestnut productivity (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992, Cesaraccio et al., 2001, Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007, Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2008, Dinis et al., 2011, Pereira et al., 2011). Observed data from European Climate Assessment and simulated data by COSMO-CLM model for the actual (C20) and future (A1B and B1) climate scenarios were used in this study to: (i) assess the model ability to reproduce weather parameters distribution; and, (ii) to assess future changes in the distribution of meteorological parameters which play an important role in the productivity of chestnut for different future periods. Results points to statistical significant changes in the mean and in variance in the future, more prominent in temperature than in precipitation based parameters. Changes in precipitation will be more significant in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula and France in the end of the 21st century for A1B scenario conditions. As expected, more significant changes will be expected to occur during spring and summer, in the Mediterranean areas and in the later period. The number of days with TmaxAesculus hippocastanum L.) in the Swietokrzki National Park in Central Poland", J.For.Res., 12, 24-23. Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2008: "Differences in photosynthetic apparatus of leaves from different sides of chestnut canopy", Photosynthetica, 46, 63-72. Dinis, L.T,Peixoto, F., Pinto, T., Costa, R.Bennett, R. N., and Gomes-Laranjo,J., 2011: "Study of morphological and phonological diversity in chestnut trees (Judia variety) as a function of temperature sum". Environ. Exp Bot., 70, 110-120. Pereira, M.G., Caramelo, L., Gouveia, C., Gomes-Laranjo, J., Magalhães, M., 2011: "Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity". Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1-12, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-12-011. This work

  6. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large nu...

  7. Initiation of health-behaviour change among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Kraaijenhagen Roderik A; Vosbergen Sandra; Peek Niels; Niessen Maurice AJ; Colkesen Ersen B; van Kalken Coenraad K; Tijssen Jan GP; Peters Ron JG

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Primary prevention programs at the worksite can improve employee health and reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease. Programs that include a web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback hold the advantage of simultaneously increasing awareness of risk and enhancing initiation of health-behaviour change. In this study we evaluated initial health-behaviour change among employees who voluntarily participated in such a HRA program. Methods We conducted a q...

  8. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...

  9. Climate Change and Potato Production in Contrasting South African Agro-Ecosystems 2. Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Franke, A.C.; Haverkort, A.J.; Steyn, J.M.

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to assess the risks and opportunities posed by climate change to potato growers in South Africa and to evaluate adaptation measures in the form of changes in planting time growers could adopt to optimise land and water use efficiencies in potato, using a climate model of past, presen

  10. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Drought Risk for the Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strzepek, K. M.; Boehlert, B. B.; Vogel, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Approximately 90 percent of the Nile River runoff is generated within two regions—the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes—that have historically contrasting precipitation regimes. As a result of uncorrelated interannual rainfall variability, meteorological droughts in one region are typically offset by wetter periods in the other, thus having a moderating effect on downstream Nile river flow to Sudan and Egypt. Under climate change, the drivers of these contrasting rainfall regimes (including the annual migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) may be fundamentally altered such that droughts become correlated between these regions, leading to unprecedented low flows in the downstream Nile. The water management challenges that would result are likely to be exacerbated if climate change increases drought occurrence and intensity across the basin. In this research, we first assess the effect of climate change on drought frequency and intensity across eight Nile subbasins by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to the full suite of 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change General Circulation Models for three IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)). We then use these outputs to evaluate how climate change affects the correlation of drought occurrence and intensity between the Ethiopian highlands and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes regions. In the first inquiry, we find that the frequency of drought over the next century based on precipitation alone (SPI) is projected to increase in the northern Nile basin, and decrease in the southern regions. Drought frequencies based on both precipitation and temperature (PDSI) are projected to increase across most of the Nile basin, however, with almost universally experienced increases in drought risk by the late 21st century. For both measures, the Ethiopia

  11. Vulnerability Index to Climate Change and its Application for Community-level Risk Assessment in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the vulnerability-led approach, the Prevalent Community-level Vulnerability Index (PCVI was developed as a simple composite index used to represent community-level vulnerability to climate change in the socioeconomic and hazard contexts. The PCVI consists of three major components which are Exposure & hazard, Socioeconomic-ecological fragility and Coping capacity. All of these components are further comprised of different indicators, representing different aspects of biophysical and social vulnerability of grass-root communities. Based on the results analyzed in the provincial pilot sites, the PCVI could represent both spatial patterns and magnitudes of vulnerability of each community in consistence with the local economic-social-environmental contexts. It generally reflects the differences in the local contexts and factors that determine overall vulnerability of each community. For the ease in calculating the PCVI especially for the provincial operating staffs and general public, the PREvalent Community Climate Change Vulnerability Tool (RECCC was further developed as a user-friendly, Excel-based program. In conclusions, the outputs of this study that include the PCVI and its database as well as the RECCC program are useful not only for analyzing vulnerability and assessing risks of community to climate change, but also for supporting decision-making process in developing and implementing adaptation activities at provincial level. These outputs were also designed for further integrating as a supplementary part of Provincial�s Decision Supporting System (DSS, with the purpose of promoting the participation of local organizations and stakeholders in coping with the adverse impacts of climate change. However, additional development of ERCCC program, together with dissemination of the vulnerability framework as well as the use of ERCCC program to local organizations needs to be continued.

  12. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. ... at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed by the CDC and get a personalized ...

  13. Assessing perceived health risks of climate change : Canadian public opinion 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-03-15

    This paper discussed a survey conducted to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours of Canadians in relation to climatic change. A total of 1600 telephone surveys were conducted with a broad range of age groups. The study showed that climate change is considered by many Canadians to pose a significant threat at both local and global levels. Evidence of climate change has been noted in many communities. However, relatively few Canadians understand how climate change may impact human health. While many Canadians associated climatic change with air pollution hazards and ozone depletion, most Canadians were not aware of the potential negative health impacts related to changes in disease vectors, extreme weather events, and coastal flooding. The strongest awareness and concern about health impacts were expressed by Canadians concerned about global warming. Individuals with chronic health conditions were more likely to be attuned to the potential health impacts of climatic change. Seniors viewed climate change as a longer term problem. Only 10 per cent of Canadians viewed global warming as a major health risk. Sixty-nine per cent of Canadians believed that global warming was happening, while 63 per cent attributed climate change to human activity. Nearly half of all respondents believed that an extreme weather disaster would affect their community during the course of their lifetime. The report suggested that marketing or communications campaigns should build public awareness of the health risks associated with direct or proximal environmental risks. Information about health risks should be specific, and communications should be tailored to age cohorts. Television and print media should be used to build awareness of the health risks of climate change. Provincial concerns related to climatic change were also outlined. tabs., figs.

  14. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  15. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment...

  16. Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, W L; Li, Z H; Chen, H J; Wan, F H; Qu, W W; Zhang, Z; Kriticos, D J

    2012-04-01

    Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

  17. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...

  18. Perceptions of Obvious and Disruptive Climate Change: Community-Based Risk Assessment for Two Native Villages in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Rosales

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work operationalizes the determinants of climate change risk, exposure and vulnerability, through the perceptions held by Native hunters, fishers, and gatherers in Savoonga and Shaktoolik, Alaska. Informed by their skill, experience, and the traditional knowledge of their elders, hunters, fishers, and gatherers in these communities are astute observers of their environment and environmental change. A questionnaire is used to sort and rank their perceptions of the most obvious and disruptive elements of climate change as representations of exposure and vulnerability, respectively. Results represent the relative strength and significance of those perceptions of environmental change. In addition to other changes, storms are among the most obvious and disruptive impacts of climate change to respondents in both communities, while changes to sea ice tend to be more disruptive in Savoonga, a more ice-obligate culture, than Shaktoolik. Changes on the tundra are more obvious in Shaktoolik, but is the least disruptive category of change in both villages. Changes along the coast were both obvious and disruptive, albeit more so in Shaktoolik than Savoonga. The findings suggest that traditional ecological knowledge is a valuable source of information to access perceptions of risk, and develop climate risk management and adaptation plans. The questionnaire design and statistical methodology may be of interest to those working on community-based adaptation and risk assessment projects in high-risk, poor, and marginalized Native communities with small populations.

  19. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  20. A methodology for risk assessment of municipal infrastructure due to climate change: a case study of London, Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowering, E.; Peck, A.; Simonovic, S.

    2009-12-01

    Natural hazards are increasing in severity as a consequence of climate change. These hazards affect all aspects of municipal infrastructure. Thus a region must adapt its policies and procedures to mitigate the increasing risk to its infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a methodology for engineering assessment of risk to municipal infrastructure due to climate change. Proposed methodology includes climate, hydrologic and hydraulic modeling as input for engineering risk assessment. Climate analysis uses Weather Generator as a tool to combine Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with regional historical data to output plausible climate scenarios. The present study focuses on flooding and temperature extremes which are relevant to the region under consideration. Hydrologic analysis uses the climate scenarios as input to the HEC-HMS model to determine streamflows. These streamflows are input to the HEC-RAS and GeoHEC-RAS as part of the hydraulic analysis to generate floodplain maps in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The engineering risk assessment comprises of both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Water elevations and municipal infrastructure maps are combined using GIS to determine flood inundation levels. These loads are used in combination with infrastructure capacities to evaluate quantitative risk indices. Fuzzy set theory is used to address uncertainties associated with subjective criteria in qualitative analysis. This is accomplished by using membership functions to model ambiguity in various impact data interpretation. These membership functions are created through interviews held with experts in the fields of transportation, water supply and distribution, wastewater management and critical infrastructure management. Membership functions are used in qualitative fuzzy risk assessment. Quantitative and qualitative analysis are combined into risk indices which are spatially represented in GIS as risk maps for each

  1. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina;

    to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls......Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD...

  2. Forest fire risk assessment in Sweden using climate model data: bias correction and future changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available As the risk for a forest fire is largely influenced by weather, evaluating its tendency under a changing climate becomes important for management and decision making. Currently, biases in climate models make it difficult to realistically estimate the future climate and consequent impact on fire risk. A distribution-based scaling (DBS approach was developed as a post-processing tool that intends to correct systematic biases in climate modelling outputs. In this study, we used two projections, one driven by historical reanalysis (ERA40 and one from a global climate model (ECHAM5 for future projection, both having been dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model (RCA3. The effects of the post-processing tool on relative humidity and wind speed were studied in addition to the primary variables precipitation and temperature. Finally, the Canadian Fire Weather Index system was used to evaluate the influence of changing meteorological conditions on the moisture content in fuel layers and the fire-spread risk. The forest fire risk results using DBS are proven to better reflect risk using observations than that using raw climate outputs. For future periods, southern Sweden is likely to have a higher fire risk than today, whereas northern Sweden will have a lower risk of forest fire.

  3. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. PMID:26704454

  4. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process.

  5. A preliminary impact assessment of typhoon wind risk of residential buildings in Japan under future climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    2012-01-01

    This paper performs a quantitative impact assessment of the climate change on typhoon wind risk, focusing on residential buildings in Japan. The risk is assessed based on (1) the typhoon event set extracted from the simulation by the super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model...... are that in the future (2075–2099) at most locations of Japan: (1) extreme wind events (10-minute sustained wind speed exceeding 30 m/s) are more likely to occur; (2) the median of the annual maximum wind speed decreases; (3) the expected number of damaged residential buildings decreases, assuming that the profile...

  6. Microbial Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. M.; Mena, K. D.; Nickerson, C.A.; Pierson, D. L.

    2009-01-01

    -response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

  7. Pipeline risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kariyawasam, S. [TransCanada PipeLines Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Weir, D. [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)] (comps.)

    2009-07-01

    Risk assessments and risk analysis are system-wide activities that include site-specific risk and reliability-based decision-making, implementation, and monitoring. This working group discussed the risk management process in the pipeline industry, including reliability-based integrity management and risk control processes. Attendants at the group discussed reliability-based decision support and performance measurements designed to support corporate risk management policies. New developments and technologies designed to optimize risk management procedures were also presented. The group was divided into 3 sessions: (1) current practice, strengths and limitations of system-wide risk assessments for facility assets; (2) accounting for uncertainties to assure safety; and (3) reliability based excavation repair criteria and removing potentially unsafe corrosion defects. Presentations of risk assessment procedures used at various companies were given. The role of regulators, best practices, and effective networking environments in ensuring the success of risk assessment policies was discussed. Risk assessment models were also reviewed.

  8. Heart Attack Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Pressure Tools & Resources Stroke More Heart Attack Risk Assessment Updated:May 31,2016 We're sorry, but ... Can You Recognize a Heart Attack? Quiz Risk Assessment Patient Information Sheets: Heart Attack Heart Attack Personal ...

  9. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

  10. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darren Kriticos

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps illustrate where invasive alien arthropods, molluscs, pathogens, and weeds might become established, spread, and cause harm to natural and agricultural resources within a pest risk area. Such maps can be powerful tools to assist policymakers in matters of international trade, domestic quarantines, biosecurity surveillance, or pest-incursion responses. The International Pest Risk Mapping Workgroup (IPRMW is a group of ecologists, economists, modellers, and practising risk analysts who are committed to improving the methods used to estimate risks posed by invasive alien species to agricultural and natural resources. The group also strives to improve communication about pest risks to biosecurity, production, and natural-resource-sector stakeholders so that risks can be better managed. The IPRMW previously identified ten activities to improve pest risk assessment procedures, among these were: “improve representations of uncertainty, … expand communications with decision-makers on the interpretation and use of risk maps, … increase international collaboration, … incorporate climate change, … [and] study how human and biological dimensions interact” (Venette et al. 2010.

  11. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Matthias; Albert; Jan; Hansen; Jürgen; Nagel; Matthias; Schmidt; Hermann; Spellmann

    2015-01-01

    Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as

  12. Using Prediction Markets to Generate Probability Density Functions for Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate-related uncertainty is traditionally presented as an error bar, but it is becoming increasingly common to express it in terms of a probability density function (PDF). PDFs are a necessary component of probabilistic risk assessments, for which simple "best estimate" values are insufficient. Many groups have generated PDFs for climate sensitivity using a variety of methods. These PDFs are broadly consistent, but vary significantly in their details. One axiom of the verification and validation community is, "codes don't make predictions, people make predictions." This is a statement of the fact that subject domain experts generate results using assumptions within a range of epistemic uncertainty and interpret them according to their expert opinion. Different experts with different methods will arrive at different PDFs. For effective decision support, a single consensus PDF would be useful. We suggest that market methods can be used to aggregate an ensemble of opinions into a single distribution that expresses the consensus. Prediction markets have been shown to be highly successful at forecasting the outcome of events ranging from elections to box office returns. In prediction markets, traders can take a position on whether some future event will or will not occur. These positions are expressed as contracts that are traded in a double-action market that aggregates price, which can be interpreted as a consensus probability that the event will take place. Since climate sensitivity cannot directly be measured, it cannot be predicted. However, the changes in global mean surface temperature are a direct consequence of climate sensitivity, changes in forcing, and internal variability. Viable prediction markets require an undisputed event outcome on a specific date. Climate-related markets exist on Intrade.com, an online trading exchange. One such contract is titled "Global Temperature Anomaly for Dec 2011 to be greater than 0.65 Degrees C." Settlement is based

  13. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. Particulate Matter and Health Risk under a Changing Climate: Assessment for Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Dias

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impacts of climate-induced changes in air pollution levels and its impacts on population health were investigated. The IPCC scenario (SRES A2 was used to analyse the effects of climate on future PM10 concentrations over Portugal and their impact on short-term population exposure and mortality. The air quality modelling system has been applied with high spatial resolution looking on climate changes at regional scale. To quantify health impacts related to air pollution changes, the WHO methodology for health impact assessment was implemented. The results point to 8% increase of premature mortality attributed to future PM10 levels in Portugal. The pollution episodes with daily average PM10 concentration above the current legislated value (50 μg·m−3 would be responsible for 81% of attributable cases. The absolute number of deaths attributable to PM10 under future climate emphasizes the importance of indirect effects of climate change on human health.

  16. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  17. Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian odonata from climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex A Bush

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85% species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other

  18. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  19. From Risk Towards Resilience: Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptability to Climate Change in the Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, F. H.; Yasuhara, K.; Tamura, M.; Tabayashi, Y.

    2012-12-01

    While efforts to mainstream climate adaptation have only begun in recent years, many developing regions are already taking measures to proof themselves from various natural disasters, including storm surges, flooding, land subsidence, and erosion. In the Asia-Pacific region, one of the most vulnerable in the world, climate resilience is urgently needed due to sea level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate events. Yet, many regions and communities are unprepared due to insufficient awareness of disaster risks. In order to utilize the science of the changing environment more effectively, there is a critical need to understand the social context and perception of those who are affected by climate change. Using the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam as an example, we discuss our current efforts to develop a vulnerability and adaptation index for building climate resilience in the Asia-Pacific Region. A survey of current adaptation efforts in this region will be shown and preliminary findings from our survey to understand the perception of disaster risk in this region will be discussed.

  20. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP)

  1. Genotoxicity changes in test plot soil: Impact on risk assessment at a contaminated site planning bioremediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collie, S.L.; Donnelly, K.C. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Soil samples from test plots designed to investigate the suitability of biodegradation to reduce levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and pentachlorophenol (PCP) were collected and solvent-extracted throughout a four-month study. Samples were followed for contaminant concentration and genotoxicity. Test plots were constructed to represent four concentrations of contaminated soil. Although the highest PCP concentration plot was negative in the Salmonella/microsome plate incorporation both with and without metabolic activation at the beginning of the treatment period, these soils became cytotoxic by the end of the study when tested without metabolic activation, and chemical analysis indicated no degradation of PCP. The methanol extract from the lowest PCP concentration plot was positive in the plate incorporation assay at the beginning of the study with an average weighted activity of 29 revertants/gram soil without and 32 revertants/g with metabolic activation at the highest dose level. The mutagenic potential of the methanol extract of this soil increased to an average weighted activity of 306 revertants/g without and 291 revertants/g with metabolic activation, despite a reduction from 46 to below 10 {micro}g PCP/g soil. A human health risk assessment employing the current US/EPA method of incorporating chemical concentration data in calculating cancer risk was then compared with the level of risk that can be inferred from the corresponding bioassay data. These findings emphasize the need for careful remediation design as this step will prove critical in achieving both maximum biodegradation and protection of human health.

  2. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  3. A Dynamic Flood Inundation Model Framework to Assess Coastal Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Alizad, K.; Medeiros, S. C.; Irish, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal regions around the world are susceptible to a variety of natural disasters causing extreme inundation. It is anticipated that the vulnerability of coastal cities will increase due to the effects of climate change, and in particular sea level rise (SLR). A novel framework was developed to generate a suite of physics-based storm surge models that include projections of coastal floodplain dynamics under climate change scenarios: shoreline erosion/accretion, dune morphology, salt marsh migration, and population dynamics. First, the storm surge inundation model was extensively validated for present day conditions with respect to astronomic tides and hindcasts of Hurricane Ivan (2004), Dennis (2005), Katrina (2005), and Isaac (2012). The model was then modified to characterize the future outlook of the landscape for four climate change scenarios for the year 2100 (B1, B2, A1B, and A2), and each climate change scenario was linked to a sea level rise of 0.2 m, 0.5 m, 1.2 m, and 2.0 m. The adapted model was then used to simulate hurricane storm surge conditions for each climate scenario using a variety of tropical cyclones as the forcing mechanism. The collection of results shows the intensification of inundation area and the vulnerability of the coast to potential future climate conditions. The methodology developed herein to assess coastal flooding under climate change can be performed across any coastal region worldwide, and results provide awareness of regions vulnerable to extreme flooding in the future. Note: The main theme behind this work is to appear in a future Earth's Future publication. Bilskie, M. V., S. C. Hagen, S. C. Medeiros, and D. L. Passeri (2014), Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(3), 927-934. Parris, A., et al. (2012), Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate AssessmentRep., 37 pp. Passeri, D. L., S. C. Hagen, M. V. Bilskie, and S. C. Medeiros

  4. Risk assessment and predator learning in a changing world: understanding the impacts of coral reef degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chivers, Douglas P.; McCormick, Mark I.; Allan, Bridie J. M.; Ferrari, Maud C. O.

    2016-01-01

    Habitat degradation is among the top drivers of the loss of global biodiversity. This problem is particularly acute in coral reef system. Here we investigated whether coral degradation influences predator risk assessment and learning for damselfish. When in a live coral environment, Ambon damselfish were able to learn the identity of an unknown predator upon exposure to damselfish alarm cues combined with predator odour and were able to socially transmit this learned recognition to naïve conspecifics. However, in the presence of dead coral water, damselfish failed to learn to recognize the predator through alarm cue conditioning and hence could not transmit the information socially. Unlike alarm cues of Ambon damselfish that appear to be rendered unusable in degraded coral habitats, alarm cues of Nagasaki damselfish remain viable in this same environment. Nagasaki damselfish were able to learn predators through conditioning with alarm cues in degraded habitats and subsequently transmit the information socially to Ambon damselfish. Predator-prey dynamics may be profoundly affected as habitat degradation proceeds; the success of one species that appears to have compromised predation assessment and learning, may find itself reliant on other species that are seemingly unaffected by the same degree of habitat degradation. PMID:27611870

  5. Risk assessment and predator learning in a changing world: understanding the impacts of coral reef degradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chivers, Douglas P; McCormick, Mark I; Allan, Bridie J M; Ferrari, Maud C O

    2016-01-01

    Habitat degradation is among the top drivers of the loss of global biodiversity. This problem is particularly acute in coral reef system. Here we investigated whether coral degradation influences predator risk assessment and learning for damselfish. When in a live coral environment, Ambon damselfish were able to learn the identity of an unknown predator upon exposure to damselfish alarm cues combined with predator odour and were able to socially transmit this learned recognition to naïve conspecifics. However, in the presence of dead coral water, damselfish failed to learn to recognize the predator through alarm cue conditioning and hence could not transmit the information socially. Unlike alarm cues of Ambon damselfish that appear to be rendered unusable in degraded coral habitats, alarm cues of Nagasaki damselfish remain viable in this same environment. Nagasaki damselfish were able to learn predators through conditioning with alarm cues in degraded habitats and subsequently transmit the information socially to Ambon damselfish. Predator-prey dynamics may be profoundly affected as habitat degradation proceeds; the success of one species that appears to have compromised predation assessment and learning, may find itself reliant on other species that are seemingly unaffected by the same degree of habitat degradation. PMID:27611870

  6. Initiation of health-behaviour change among employees participating in a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kraaijenhagen Roderik A

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Primary prevention programs at the worksite can improve employee health and reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease. Programs that include a web-based health risk assessment (HRA with tailored feedback hold the advantage of simultaneously increasing awareness of risk and enhancing initiation of health-behaviour change. In this study we evaluated initial health-behaviour change among employees who voluntarily participated in such a HRA program. Methods We conducted a questionnaire survey among 2289 employees who voluntarily participated in a HRA program at seven Dutch worksites between 2007 and 2009. The HRA included a web-based questionnaire, biometric measurements, laboratory evaluation, and tailored feedback. The survey questionnaire assessed initial self-reported health-behaviour change and satisfaction with the web-based HRA, and was e-mailed four weeks after employees completed the HRA. Results Response was received from 638 (28% employees. Of all, 86% rated the program as positive, 74% recommended it to others, and 58% reported to have initiated overall health-behaviour change. Compared with employees at low CVD risk, those at high risk more often reported to have increased physical activity (OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.52-7.45. Obese employees more frequently reported to have increased physical activity (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.72-6.54 and improved diet (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.50-7.60. Being satisfied with the HRA program in general was associated with more frequent self-reported initiation of overall health-behaviour change (OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.73-4.44, increased physical activity (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.06-3.39, and improved diet (OR 2.89, 95% CI 1.61-5.17. Conclusions More than half of the employees who voluntarily participated in a web-based HRA with tailored feedback, reported to have initiated health-behaviour change. Self-reported initiation of health-behaviour change was more frequent among those at high CVD risk and BMI levels. In

  7. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  8. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  9. Biosafety risk assessment methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele; Gaudioso, Jennifer M.; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson; Wagner, Stefan M.; Shigematsu, Mika; Risi, George; Kozlovac, Joe; Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke; Prat, Esmeralda

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  10. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  11. Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring "significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine". These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change.

  12. Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess

  13. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  14. Landslide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessing, P.; Messina, C.P.; Fonner, R.F.

    1983-01-01

    Landslide risk can be assessed by evaluating geological conditions associated with past events. A sample of 2,4 16 slides from urban areas in West Virginia, each with 12 associated geological factors, has been analyzed using SAS computer methods. In addition, selected data have been normalized to account for areal distribution of rock formations, soil series, and slope percents. Final calculations yield landslide risk assessments of 1.50=high risk. The simplicity of the method provides for a rapid, initial assessment prior to financial investment. However, it does not replace on-site investigations, nor excuse poor construction. ?? 1983 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

  15. Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk. - Highlights: • Risk assessment for the 2050's including climate change and population changes. • Three climate scenarios considered (changes in river flow and river temperature). • Increased risk from fish intersex across all scenarios in England and Wales. • Population is the main factor causing the risk increase for the 2050's. - The predicted increase in risk of endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales in the 2050's is mainly due to human population increase rather than climate change

  16. Cardiac Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to assess cardiac risk include: High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) : Studies have shown that measuring ... LDL-C but does not respond to typical strategies to lower LDL-C such as diet, exercise, ...

  17. Environmental risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacDonell, M.M.

    1997-10-01

    This paper presents a current overview of the basic elements of environmental risk assessment within the basic four-step process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, and risk characterization. These general steps have been applied to assess both human and ecological risks from environmental exposures. Approaches used to identify hazards and exposures are being refined, including the use of optimized field sampling and more representative, rather than conservative,upper-bound estimates. In addition, toxicity data are being reviewed more rigorously as US and European harmonization initiatives gain strength, and the classification of chemicals has become more qualitative to more flexibly accommodate new dose-response information as it is developed. Finally, more emphasis is being placed on noncancer end points, and human and ecological risks are being weighed against each other more explicitly at the risk characterization phase. Recent advances in risk-based decision making reflect the increased transparency of the overall process, with more explicit incorporation of multiple trade-offs. The end result is a more comprehensive life-cycle evaluation of the risks associated with environmental exposures at contaminated sites.

  18. Human health risk assessment in regions surrounding historical mining activities: the effect of change of support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Korre; J.R. Gay; S. Durucan [Imperial College London, London (United Kingdom). Department of Earth Science and Engineering

    2007-09-15

    This paper presents a probabilistic exposure model and its adaptation for use with spatially explicit information: soil contaminant concentrations and pH levels, predicted by geostatistical simulation; and population data mapped according to place of residence. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) is used to provide 1000 plausible maps of soil contaminant concentrations, and results are fed into the exposure model to produce risk maps. Distributions of exposure values are closely related to uncertainty in the soil contaminant values. Using a different support for the estimations has a large effect on the results when comparing exposure values to regulatory cut-offs. Mapping the number of overexposed people allows effective targeting of clean up to reduce efficiently the number of overexposed individuals. Two areas of historical mining activity, a case study from the Southern Urals region of Russia for metal mining and another study from the Tula coal mining region of Russia, are used to demonstrate the importance of the support in the human health risk evaluation.

  19. Risk assessment of flash floods in central Pyrenees (Spain) through land use change analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Mora, Daniel; Sánchez-Fabre, Miguel; Ángel Saz, Miguel; Ollero, Alfredo

    2015-04-01

    Nowadays, the main cause of the damages to human areas is the increased risk exposure. The urbanization in touristic areas in Pyrenees has increased enormously in last 25 years, and the most of urban development have been made on land occupied by the stream channel. We present two different case studies in central Pyrenees: one in Aragón river and one in Ésera river. We made a land use analysis from 1956 to 2013 in the headwaters of these two rivers delimiting the channel in different flash floods events, and analysing the amount and distribution of precipitation at the same time. The results show that the risk exposure is one of the main factors of the impact of flash floods. We found that most of the damage on urbanization and human activities was caused by the urban occupation of areas that were located on the floodplain of the river. For both Aragon and Esera headwaters precipitation events were considered extreme in their time series. However, the amount of precipitation of these extreme events does not support the consequences in geomorphological and human environments. The events of high intensity rainfall over the last years could be expected, yet, it had unexpected consequences that could be predictable by land managers through an appropriate regional planning.

  20. Assessment of fracture risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kanis, John A. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom)], E-mail: w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); McCloskey, Eugene V. [WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield S10 2RX (United Kingdom); Osteoporosis Centre, Northern General Hospital, Sheffield (United Kingdom)

    2009-09-15

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  1. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R.; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  2. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH)

  3. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  4. Assessment of the economic risk for the ski resorts of changes in snow cover duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Sokratov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter tourism that is intensively developed in the Russian Federation in recent years strongly depends on the snow availability and properties in the region. Climate changes exert significant influence on the functioning of mountain ski resorts, especially if they are located in areas with relatively high air temperatures in winter season. At the present time, a snowy cluster of mountain ski resorts is intensively progressing in vicinity of Krasnaya Polyana. This region in the West Caucasus (Russia is characterized by relatively warm climate conditions. The snow cover thickness (of 1% insurance in area of the Aibga mountain range may reach 8.1 m. But the snow cover thickness is not the only characteristic of the mountain skiing attractiveness. According to the Swiss standards a mountain ski resort can be considered reliable if during seven seasons of ten ones the snow cover with minimal thickness of 30–50 cm exists for a time not shorter than 100 days during a period from 1st December till 15th April.According to the forecast, during future decades the calculated amount of solid precipitation should reduce by 25–30% in mountain regions on the south macro-slope of the Great Caucasus. As the calculations show, by 2041–2050 the maximal decade thickness of snow cover will decrease by 29–35% while a number of days with snow – by 35–40%. If this is the case, artificial snow will be needed in addition to the natural one. But, under warm climate conditions using of plants for artificial snow production will require a certain perfecting of the nowadays technologies, and very likely, with use of chemicals. That is why a shadowing of existing mountain ski routes by means of the tree planting along them could be ecologically more promising. As for the mountain ski resorts of the West Caucasus, we should mention a possible weakening of the avalanche activity as a potential positive effect of the climate warming predicted by models.

  5. Overheating risk assessment of naturally ventilated classroom under the influence of climate change in hot and humid region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kuo-Tsang

    2013-04-01

    Natural ventilation (NV) is considered one of the passive building strategies used for reducing cooling energy demand. The utilization of nature wind for cooling down indoor thermal environment to reach thermal comfort requires knowledge of adequately positioning the building fenestrations, designing inlet-outlet related opening ratios, planning unobstructed cross ventilation paths, and, the most important, assessing the utilization feasibility base on local climatic variables. Furthermore, factors that influence the indoor thermal condition include building envelope heat gain, indoor air velocity, indoor heat gain (e.g. heat discharges from occupant's body, lighting fixture, electrical appliances), and outdoor climate. Among the above, the indoor thermal performance of NV building is significantly dependent to outdoor climate conditions. In hot and humid Taiwan, under college school classrooms are usually operated in natural ventilation mode and are more vulnerable to climate change in regard to maintain indoor thermal comfort. As climate changes in progress, NV classrooms would expect to encounter more events of overheating in the near future, which result in more severe heat stress, and would risk the utilization of natural ventilation. To evaluate the overheating risk under the influence of recent climate change, an actual top floor elementary school classroom with 30 students located at north Taiwan was modeled. Long-term local hourly meteorological data were gathered and further constructed into EnergyPlus Weather Files (EPWs) format for building thermal dynamic simulation to discuss the indoor thermal environmental variation during the period of 1998 to 2012 by retrospective simulation. As indoor thermal environment is an overall condition resulting from a series combination of various factors, sub-hourly building simulation tool, EnergyPlus, coupled with the above fifteen years' EPWs was adopted to predict hourly indoor parameters of mean radiant

  6. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.)

  7. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Mach, Megan E; Martone, Rebecca G; Singh, Gerald G; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M A

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  8. Methylmercury risk assessment issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE, Washington, DC (United States)

    1996-07-01

    This paper reviews the general background of health risks associated with mercury (Hg), primarily methylmercury (MeHg), with a view towards application to advanced technologies that could reduce any contributions from coal combustion. The need for accurate assessment of such risks is discussed, since Hg is now widely dispersed in the environment and cannot easily be eliminated. The primary pathway of MeHg intake is through eating contaminated fish. The issues of concern include identification of critical health outcomes (various neurological indices) and their confounding factors, accurate assessment of MeHg intake rates, and appropriate use of dose-response functions. Ultimately, such information will be used to evaluate alternative coal combustion systems.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  10. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  11. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  12. Heat injury risk assessment for single-cropping rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Lin; Wang, Chunyi; Zhang, Jiquan

    2016-06-01

    Under global warming, the risk of heat injury for crops increases, which leads to increasing instability in agricultural production. In this study, based on phenological observation data and yield data during 1981-2011 and daily meteorological data during 1961-2011 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), the risk of heat injury for single-cropping rice in this area and its response to climate change were assessed and analyzed. The risk was decomposed into such elements as hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention/mitigation capacity, in accordance with natural disaster risk assessment theory and the formation mechanisms of agrometeorological disasters. First, a hazard assessment model was established to identify spatiotemporal variations of the heat injury in the MLRYR during 1961-2011, and the relationship between heat injury hazard and air temperature was analyzed to identify the response of hazard to climate change. It was found that the heat injury hazard of single-cropping rice was positively correlated with the mean and maximum temperatures during the rice heading period of 20 days, with the hazard increasing sharply when the mean temperature exceeded 26.5°C and the maximum temperature exceeded 31°C. Then, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention/mitigation capacity were also quantitatively examined. The results show that vulnerability and hazard were the two most important factors in the heat injury risk assessment for single-cropping rice at most stations in the MLRYR. The risk assessment considering only the first three natural elements produced high-risk values (> 0.46) mainly in the northeast of the study area. By adding the regional capability in disaster prevention/mitigation into account, the risk assessment produced high-risk values in a much smaller area in the northeast but some-what larger areas in the southwest of the study domain. In general, the risk of heat injury differed greatly within the MLRYR

  13. Changes in subclinical organ damage vs. in Framingham risk score for assessing cardiovascular risk reduction during continued antihypertensive treatment: a LIFE substudy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Michael H; Wachtell, Kristian; Ibsen, Hans;

    2011-01-01

    To investigate whether in-treatment measurements of subclinical organ damage (SOD) assessed by elevated urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy improved the prediction of the composite cardiovascular endpoint of cardiovascular death, nonfatal...... myocardial infarction and stroke beyond in-treatment Framingham risk score (FRS)....

  14. A Risk-Based Assessment of Agricultural Water Scarcity Under Climate Change in a Semi-Arid and Snowmelt-Dominated River Basin

    OpenAIRE

    Moursi, Hossam

    2016-01-01

    Water scarcity is the major challenge that water managers face in semi-arid areas, especially in regions that depend on agriculture for rural livelihood. Climate change is one of the major stresses that is expected to exacerbate water scarcity problems in semi-arid regions. In this study, a risk-based approach was used to assess the climate change impacts on the risk of agricultural water scarcity in semi-arid and snowmelt-dominated river basins that are dependent on agriculture. The Sevier R...

  15. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  16. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing foodregulations is growing with the globalization of our food supply. The World Trade Organization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. The relevant international organization for food standards, the Codex Alimentarius Commission, recognises risk analysis, and its component parts risk assessment, risk management and risk communication, as the basis for scientific decision-making. Risk assessment comprises two activities: hazard evaluation; and exposure estimation. A hazard may be chemical, microbiological or nutritional in origin. The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation by four examples involving: (1) food additives, (2) microbiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses, (3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  17. Practical Approaches to Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SIMONBROOKE-TAYLOR

    2001-01-01

    The importance of using risk assessment in developing food regulations is growing with the globalization of our food supple,The World Trade Oranization has entrenched the principles of science-based risk assessment in the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures.The relevant international organization for food standards,the Codex Alimentarius Commission,recognises risk analysis,and its component parts risk assessment,risk management and risk communication as the basis for scientific decision-making,Risk assessment comprises two activities:hazard evaluation;and exposure estimation.A hazard may be chemical,microbiological or nutritional in origin,The practical application of risk assessment in Australia is illustrated in this presentation y four examples involving:(1) food additives,(2) microiological safety of imported raw milk cheeses,(3) genetically modified foods and (4) imported food inspection.

  18. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G;

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  19. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  20. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Drissi S.; Houmani H.; Medromi H.

    2013-01-01

    with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge re...

  1. Changing the "Normal Range" for Blood Pressure from 140/90 to 130/Any Improves Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Redefine the "normal" reference range for blood pressure from <140/90 to one that more effectively identifies individuals with increased mortality risk. Method .- Data from the recently published 2014 CRL blood pressure study was used. It includes 2,472,706 life insurance applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File. Various upper limits of blood pressure (BP in mm Hg) were evaluated to determine if any was superior to the current, commonly used limit of 140/90 in identifying individuals with increased mortality risk. Results .- An alternative reference range using a systolic BP (SBP) <130 with any diastolic BP (DBP) included 84% of life insurance applicants. It had a lower mortality rate and narrower range of relative risk than <140/90, including 89% as many applicants but only 68% as many deaths. This pattern of lives and deaths was consistent across age and sex. Conclusion .- Switching to a "normal" reference range of SBP <130 offers superior risk assessment relative to using BP <140/90 while still including a sufficient percentage of the population.

  2. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Sabre J. Coleman; Zalk, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues b...

  3. Integrating Risk Context into Risk Assessments: The Risk Context Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroner, Daryl G.; Gray, Andrew L.; Goodrich, Ben

    2013-01-01

    The context in which offenders are released is an important component of conducting risk assessments. A sample of 257 supervised male parolees were followed in the community ("M" = 870 days) after an initial risk assessment. Drawing on community-based information, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the recently developed Risk Context Scale.…

  4. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  5. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process.

  6. Fuzzy sets applications for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchanov, P A; Dudatiev, A V; Podobna, Y Y; Molchanova, O P

    2002-09-01

    The method of cancer risk assessment on the basis of the Fuzzy Set Theory is presented. The method is based on a multifactor risk assessment of cancer diseases. The individual risk of cancer disease is evaluated as the probability of disease multiplied by the value of an individual dose. An acupuncture method of cancer risk assessments was developed. The method is based on the analysis of changes of an electromagnetic field (biofield) of a person. The method allows to determine both cancer probability and probable location of the process. PMID:12298344

  7. Association of mammographic image feature change and an increasing risk trend of developing breast cancer: an assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Maxine; Leader, Joseph K.; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

    2015-03-01

    We recently investigated a new mammographic image feature based risk factor to predict near-term breast cancer risk after a woman has a negative mammographic screening. We hypothesized that unlike the conventional epidemiology-based long-term (or lifetime) risk factors, the mammographic image feature based risk factor value will increase as the time lag between the negative and positive mammography screening decreases. The purpose of this study is to test this hypothesis. From a large and diverse full-field digital mammography (FFDM) image database with 1278 cases, we collected all available sequential FFDM examinations for each case including the "current" and 1 to 3 most recently "prior" examinations. All "prior" examinations were interpreted negative, and "current" ones were either malignant or recalled negative/benign. We computed 92 global mammographic texture and density based features, and included three clinical risk factors (woman's age, family history and subjective breast density BIRADS ratings). On this initial feature set, we applied a fast and accurate Sequential Forward Floating Selection (SFFS) feature selection algorithm to reduce feature dimensionality. The features computed on both mammographic views were individually/ separately trained using two artificial neural network (ANN) classifiers. The classification scores of the two ANNs were then merged with a sequential ANN. The results show that the maximum adjusted odds ratios were 5.59, 7.98, and 15.77 for using the 3rd, 2nd, and 1st "prior" FFDM examinations, respectively, which demonstrates a higher association of mammographic image feature change and an increasing risk trend of developing breast cancer in the near-term after a negative screening.

  8. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Ghana Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Choudhary, Vikas; D'Alessandro, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Improved agricultural risk management is one of the core enabling actions of the Group of Eight’s (G-8’s) New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition. The Agricultural Risk Management Team (ARMT) of the Agriculture and Environment Services Department of the World Bank conducted an agricultural sector risk assessment to better understand the dynamics of agricultural risks and identify appropriate responses, incorporate agricultural risk perspective into decision-making, and bui...

  10. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  11. Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2016-01-01

    In the agricultural sector, risks are inherent and ubiquitous, posing potentially serious consequences for stakeholders and consumers. Risks disrupt supply chains, causing extensive financial and economic losses. Agricultural risks are also the principal cause of transient food insecurity, creating a poverty trap for millions of households across the developing world that enforces a viciou...

  12. Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization

  13. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  14. Cancer Risk Prediction and Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cancer prediction models provide an important approach to assessing risk and prognosis by identifying individuals at high risk, facilitating the design and planning of clinical cancer trials, fostering the development of benefit-risk indices, and enabling estimates of the population burden and cost of cancer.

  15. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be...... substantial enough to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and...... exposure data for other similarly acting substances are needed for assessing the risk for mixture effects. Such data may, however, often be absent. Toxicological potency, i.e. the lowest dose found to cause adverse effects, has been proposed as one of the key characteristics when evaluating safety of a...

  16. Risk-Assessment Computer Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, William C.; Mittman, David S.

    1993-01-01

    RISK D/C is prototype computer program assisting in attempts to do program risk modeling for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) architectures proposed in Synthesis Group Report. Risk assessment performed with respect to risk events, probabilities, and severities of potential results. Enables ranking, with respect to effectiveness, of risk-mitigation strategies proposed for exploration program architecture. Allows for fact that risk assessment in early phases of planning subjective. Although specific to SEI in present form, also used as software framework for development of risk-assessment programs for other specific uses. Developed for Macintosh(TM) series computer. Requires HyperCard(TM) 2.0 or later, as well as 2 Mb of random-access memory and System 6.0.8 or later.

  17. Risk Assessment of Drought Hazards based on Water Resource Vulnerability under Climate Change - A case study in Guangdong province, South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, D.; Chen, Y. D.

    2015-12-01

    The extreme climatic events are becoming more and more frequent and intensive owing to climate change. Droughts have caused a variety of problems and threats, such as water shortage, salinity intrusion, water quality deterioration, and etc., which can seriously hamper the rapid socio-economic development. The proposed study aims to develop a joint system of assessing the risk of drought hazards from physical dimension to the socioeconomic dimension. For the former dimension, the research will focus on characterizing the changing properties of droughts in both time and space. For the latter dimension, the water resource vulnerability will be assessed based on the typical regional water demanding and supply indicators. The combination research will enable us to not only advance the state-of-the-art of drought research, but also produce many results and findings for sustainable management and adaptation of water resources resilient to the changing climate and socioeconomic development in the Guangdong province.

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. Survey: Risk Assessment for Cloud Computing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drissi S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available with the increase in the growth of cloud computing and the changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers, the cloud consumers should be aware of the risks and vulnerabilities present in the current cloud computing environment. An information security risk assessment is designed specifically for that task. However, there is lack of structured risk assessment approach to do it. This paper aims to survey existing knowledge regarding risk assessment for cloud computing and analyze existing use cases from cloud computing to identify the level of risk assessment realization in state of art systems and emerging challenges for future research.

  20. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  1. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  2. Quantitative risk assessment of CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koornneef, J.; Spruijt, M.; Molag, M.; Ramírez, A.; Turkenburg, W.; Faaij, A.

    2010-01-01

    A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO2 pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperat

  3. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland;

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  4. An assessment of the changing nature of the winter hydroclimate in eastern North America and its impacts on risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kent

    2016-04-01

    The winter hydroclimate of eastern North America is characterized by a complex and spatially varying combination of snow and rain. Much of this complexity stems from the presence of Great Lakes that are a source of heat and moisture during the winter months. Lake effect snowfall can result in heavy snowfall in highly localized regions downstream of the lakes. In addition the average mean winter temperature in the region is close to freezing and so there is enhanced sensitivity as to the phase of the precipitation. The region has warmed by 1-2.5 oC during the winter over the past 30 years and so there is concern that the character of the winter hydroclimate may be changing. Here we use reanalysis fields as well as the results of AMIP model runs, with horizontal resolutions ranging from 100 km to 16 km, to investigate the changes that have occurred in the winter hydroclimate of the region. It is shown that a horizontal resolution below ~40 km is needed to resolve the observed spatial gradients in snowfall and rainfall in the region. Over the past 30 years, the mean and 95th percentile snowfall rates in the southern part of the region have decreased by as much as 20% with an increase of a similar magnitude in both these parameters in its northwest. There has also been an increase in the mean and 95th percentile rainfall rates across much the region that exceeds 100% in the vicinity of Lake Superior, the largest and most northern of the Great Lakes. These changes are attributed to the warming that the region has experienced and are expected to continue into the future. They have and will continue to impact a number of societal functions including winter road maintenance as well as influencing the management of property risks such as flooding.

  5. The identity approach for assessing socio-technical resilience to climate change: example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gersonius, B.; Ashley, R.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2012-07-01

    Recent EU guidance on adaptation calls for the enhancement of socio-technical resilience to climate change. However, socio-technical resilience is relatively poorly defined and this makes it difficult to apply in practice. This paper uses the concept of identity as a vehicle to advance the definition and assessment of socio-technical resilience. Identity comprises four aspects (components, relationships, innovation, and continuity) that constitute the minimum of what has to be identified and specified if resilience is to be assessed. Characterising the identity of a socio-technical system requires the conceptualisation of these four aspects in relation to the particular function provided by the system (e.g. flood risk management) and also the identification of the specific variables and thresholds that reflect changes in identity. We have demonstrated the utility of the identity approach, using the example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht, the Netherlands. Based on the results, socio-technical resilience has been redefined as the ability of the system to continue to function as expected in the face of change. This definition implies that a system is resilient when it can deliver performance without a change of identity by continuing compliance with standards and expectations.

  6. The identity approach for assessing socio-technical resilience to climate change: example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gersonius

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent EU guidance on adaptation calls for the enhancement of socio-technical resilience to climate change. However, socio-technical resilience is relatively poorly defined and this makes it difficult to apply in practice. This paper uses the concept of identity as a vehicle to advance the definition and assessment of socio-technical resilience. Identity comprises four aspects (components, relationships, innovation, and continuity that constitute the minimum of what has to be identified and specified if resilience is to be assessed. Characterising the identity of a socio-technical system requires the conceptualisation of these four aspects in relation to the particular function provided by the system (e.g. flood risk management and also the identification of the specific variables and thresholds that reflect changes in identity. We have demonstrated the utility of the identity approach, using the example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht, the Netherlands. Based on the results, socio-technical resilience has been redefined as the ability of the system to continue to function as expected in the face of change. This definition implies that a system is resilient when it can deliver performance without a change of identity by continuing compliance with standards and expectations.

  7. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  8. Genetic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on the induction of germ cell mutations in mammals international and national committees developed concepts for quantifying radiation-induced genetic risk in humans. Genetic effects dominated the thinking o the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effect of Atomic Radiation) Report in 1958, the BEAR (Biological Effects of Atomic Radiations) Report form the National Academy of Sciences, the National Research Council in 1956, and the British counterpart, the Medical Research Council , in 1956. an interesting personal account of the development of the work of the BEIR (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations) and UNSCEAR Committee was published recently by Russell. The quality of risk estimation depends on the data base and on the concepts used. The current status of both aspects for quantifying genetic risk is reviewed in this paper

  9. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  13. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... and toxicity. Whereas Risk Assessment (RA) aims to identify absolute risks, LCA assess potential or relative impacts. LCA is readily applicable to nanotechnologies and several studies have been carried out, but LCA faces large problems when addressing toxic impacts of nanomaterials emitted during the life...... the emissions, how should they be defined and classified and what should be measured? LCA have many of these issues in common with RA. There is a need to understand which properties of nanomaterials are crucial for the assessment of their potential transformation and fate as well as their ability to cause...

  14. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  15. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    A strategy for delineating risk factors from use of neurotoxic chemicals was applied to the Danish working environment. An analysis using this strategy disclosed the need for internationally adopted criteria for neurotoxicity, and consequently a working group was established by the Nordic Council...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  16. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, ...

  17. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... know before using this tool: The Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool was designed for use by doctors and other health providers with their patients. If you are not a health ... your personal risk of colorectal cancer. (Colorectal cancer is another way ...

  18. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  19. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  20. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  1. Space Radiation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakely, E.

    Evaluation of potential health effects from radiation exposure during and after deep space travel is important for the future of manned missions To date manned missions have been limited to near-Earth orbits with the moon our farthest distance from earth Historical space radiation career exposures for astronauts from all NASA Missions show that early missions involved total exposures of less than about 20 mSv With the advent of Skylab and Mir total career exposure levels increased to a maximum of nearly 200 mSv Missions in deep space with the requisite longer duration of the missions planned may pose greater risks due to the increased potential for exposure to complex radiation fields comprised of a broad range of radiation types and energies from cosmic and unpredictable solar sources The first steps in the evaluation of risks are underway with bio- and physical-dosimetric measurements on both commercial flight personnel and international space crews who have experience on near-earth orbits and the necessary theoretical modeling of particle-track traversal per cell including the contributing effects of delta-rays in particle exposures An assumption for biologic effects due to exposure of radiation in deep space is that they differ quantitatively and qualitatively from that on earth The dose deposition and density pattern of heavy charged particles are very different from those of sparsely ionizing radiation The potential risks resulting from exposure to radiation in deep space are cancer non-cancer and genetic effects Radiation from

  2. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  3. Qualitative methods for assessing risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hannaman, G.W. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States); Kryska, P. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department of Energy`s (DOE) non-nuclear facilities generally require only a qualitative accident analysis to assess facility risks in accordance with DOE Order 5481.1B, Safety Analysis and Review System. Achieving a meaningful qualitative assessment of risk necessarily requires the use of suitable non-numerical assessment criteria. Typically, the methods and criteria for assigning facility-specific accident scenarios to the qualitative severity and likelihood classification system in the DOE order requires significant judgment in many applications. Systematic methods for more consistently assigning the total accident scenario frequency and associated consequences are required to substantiate and enhance future risk ranking between various activities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). SNL`s Risk Management and National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Department has developed an improved methodology for performing qualitative risk assessments in accordance wi the DOE order requirements. Products of this effort are an improved set of qualitative description that permit (1) definition of the severity for both technical and programmatic consequences that may result from a variety of accident scenarios, and (2) qualitative representation of the likelihood of occurrence. These sets of descriptions are intended to facilitate proper application of DOE criteria for assessing facility risks.

  4. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  5. Catastrophe Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2013-01-01

    The Pacific Region is one of the most natural disaster prone regions on earth. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are highly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change and natural hazards, which can result in disasters affecting their entire economic, human, and physical environment and impact their long-term development agenda. The average annual direct losses caused by natural dis...

  6. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  7. Earthquake Risk Assessment and Risk Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liechti, D.; Zbinden, A.; Rüttener, E.

    Research on risk assessment of natural catastrophes is very important for estimating its economical and social impact. The loss potentials of such disasters (e.g. earthquake and storms) for property owners, insurance and nationwide economies are driven by the hazard, the damageability (vulnerability) of buildings and infrastructures and depend on the ability to transfer these losses to different parties. In addition, the geographic distribution of the exposed values, the uncertainty of building vulnerability and the individual deductible are main factors determining the size of a loss. The deductible is the key element that steers the distribution of losses between insured and insurer. Therefore the risk analysis concentrates on deductible and vulnerability of insured buildings and maps their variations to allow efficient decisions. With consideration to stochastic event sets, the corresponding event losses can be modelled as expected loss grades of a Beta probability density function. Based on deductible and standard deviation of expected loss grades, the loss for the insured and for the insurer can be quantified. In addition, the varying deductible impact on different geographic regions can be described. This analysis has been carried out for earthquake insurance portfolios with various building types and different deductibles. Besides quantifying loss distributions between insured and insurer based on uncertainty assumptions and deductible consideration, mapping yields ideas to optimise the risk transfer process and can be used for developing risk mitigation strategies.

  8. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  9. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  10. Risk Assessment for Banking Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Helmut Elsinger; Alfred Lehar; Martin Summer

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we suggest a new approach to risk assessment for banks. Rather than looking at them individually we try to undertake an analysis at the level of the banking system. Such a perspective is necessary because the complicated network of mutual credit obligations can make the actual risk exposure of banks invisible at the level of individual institutions. We apply our framework to a cross section of individual bank data as they are usually collected at the central bank. Using standard...

  11. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  12. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section...

  14. Collegiate Alcohol Risk Assessment Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, David S.; Janosik, Steven M.

    An instrument to help administrators assess the liability resulting from alcohol-related activities on the college campus is presented. The hazards and associated liability of these events can be reduced by developing an aggressive risk management strategy designed to inform, educate, and coordinate the actions of individuals and groups associated…

  15. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met

  16. Integrated Disposal Facility Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MANN, F. M.

    2003-06-03

    An environmental risk assessment associated with the disposal of projected Immobilized Low-Activity Waste, solid wastes and failed or decommissioned melters in an Integrated Disposal Facility was performed. Based on the analyses all performance objectives associated with the groundwater, air, and intruder pathways were met.

  17. Radiation protection and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In its publications 22 and 26, ICRP recommends a method of optimization that requires that first the risks of the considered activity be quantitatively assessed. This paper deals with the transportation of radioactive material. Several aspects are examined: assessing risk quantitatively (as an expected number of health effects), determining the most cost-effective alternative options and applying the method to a practical example. Two of the possible applications of the results are presented in the case of transportation of UF6 in France: 1) the cost-effectiveness analysis of a set of alternative protection measures and 2) the comparison between such measures affecting risks in nuclear transportation and other measures dealing with different steps of the whole uranium fuel cycle. (HK)

  18. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up......Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  19. Assessing Agricultural Risks of Climate Change in the 21st Century in a Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Ruane, Alex C.; Mueller, Christoph; Arneth, Almut; Boote, Kenneth J.; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Khabarov, Nikolay

    2014-01-01

    Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

  20. Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatten, James R.; Waste, Stephen M.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

  1. Dry-bean production under climate change conditions in the north of Argentina: Risk assessment and economic implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feijoo, M.; Mestre, F.; Castagnaro, A.

    1997-12-31

    This study evaluates the potential effect of climate change on Dry-bean production in Argentina, combining climate models, a crop productivity model and a yield response model estimation of climate variables on crop yields. The study was carried out in the North agricultural regions of Jujuy, Salta, Santiago del Estero and Tucuman which include the largest areas of Argentina where dry beans are grown as a high input crop. The paper combines the output from a crop model with different techniques of analysis. The scenarios used in this study were generated from the output of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model (GISS) and the Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM). The study also includes a preliminary evaluation of the potential changes in monetary returns taking into account the possible variability of yields and prices, using mean-Gini stochastic dominance (MGSD). The results suggest that large climate change may have a negative impact on the Argentine agriculture sector, due to the high relevance of this product in the export sector. The difference negative effect depends on the varieties of dry bean and also the General Circulation Model scenarios considered for double levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

  2. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  5. Assessing damage cost estimation of urban pluvial flood risk as a mean of improving climate change adaptations investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen;

    measures. This study investigates three different methods for estimating the EAD based on a loglinear relation between the damage costs and the return periods, one of which has been used in previous studies. The results show with the increased amount of data points there appears to be a shift in the log...... in previous studies appears to be valid and is a good assumption. The EAD estimation can be simplified by having a single unit cost per flooded area which is multiplied with the extent of the flood. It does however depend on the lower threshold chosen in the estimation of the flood extent.......Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how it will be affected by climate change and how much can be gained by implementing adaptation...

  6. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  7. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  8. Automating Spreadsheet Discovery & Risk Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Perry, Eric

    2008-01-01

    There have been many articles and mishaps published about the risks of uncontrolled spreadsheets in today's business environment, including non-compliance, operational risk, errors, and fraud all leading to significant loss events. Spreadsheets fall into the realm of end user developed applications and are often absent the proper safeguards and controls an IT organization would enforce for enterprise applications. There is also an overall lack of software programming discipline enforced in how spreadsheets are developed. However, before an organization can apply proper controls and discipline to critical spreadsheets, an accurate and living inventory of spreadsheets across the enterprise must be created, and all critical spreadsheets must be identified. As such, this paper proposes an automated approach to the initial stages of the spreadsheet management lifecycle - discovery, inventory and risk assessment. Without the use of technology, these phases are often treated as a one-off project. By leveraging techn...

  9. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  10. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  11. Apollo 13 Risk Assessment Revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Bukovics, István

    2007-01-01

    Fault tree methodology is the most widespread risk assessment tool by which one is able to predict - in principle - the outcome of an event whenever it is reduced to simpler ones by the logic operations conjunction and disjunction according to the basics of Boolean algebra. The object of this work is to present an algorithm by which, using the corresponding computer code, one is able to predict - in practice - the outcome of an event whenever its fault tree is given in the u...

  12. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  13. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    OpenAIRE

    Saša T. Bakrač; Mladen M. Vuruna; MIŠKO M. MILANOVIĆ

    2012-01-01

    Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be imple...

  14. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    The topics of regulation and risk assessment of nanomaterials have never been more relevant and controversial in Europe than they are at this point in time. In this entry, we present and discuss a number of major pieces of legislation relevant for the regulation of nanomaterials, including REACH......, the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...... a number of limitations specific to nanomaterials, i.e., the fact that mass might not be the proper metric to describe the dose in dose–response assessment. These limitations are not easily overcome despite the fact that a lot of effort is being put into investigating the applicability of each...

  15. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  16. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  17. [Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Thadeu Estevam Moreira Maramaldo; Dias, Aline Peçanha Muzy; Scheidegger, Erica Miranda Damasio; Marin, Victor Augustus

    2011-01-01

    Since the commercial approve in 1996, the global area of transgenic crops has raised more than 50 times. In the last two decades, governments have been planning strategies and protocols for safety assessment of food and feed genetically modified (GM). Evaluation of food safety should be taken on a case-by-case analysis depending on the specific traits of the modified crops and the changes introduced by the genetic modification, using for this the concept of substantial equivalence. This work presents approaches for the risk assessment of GM food, as well as some problems related with the genetic construction or even with the expression of the inserted gene.

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify t

  19. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  20. Sociodemographic Risk and Child Well-Being. New Federalism: National Survey of America's Families, Series B, No. B-18. Assessing the New Federalism: An Urban Institute Program To Assess Changing Social Policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Kristin Anderson; Vandivere, Sharon; Ehrle, Jennifer

    The National Survey of America's Families (NSAF) includes several questions that can be used to assess sociodemographic risk. The NSAF is a national survey of more than 44,000 families, conducted as part of the Assessing the New Federalism project. Measures used to form an index of risk are: (1) single parenthood; (2) four or more children living…

  1. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    OpenAIRE

    Gaetano Liuzzo; Stefano Bentley; Federica Giacometti; Silvia Piva; Andrea Serraino

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication) are discussed.

  2. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  3. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  4. ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE REGULATED WATERCOURSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elżbieta Bondar-Nowakowska

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecological risk has not been identified well enough for the designers and contractors to take any actions for its limitation. It results from the lack of the basis formed to assess its level objectively. The aim of this study was to determine the standards useful in the evaluation of the ecological risk for aquatic plants in rivers, where it is planned to conduct regulatory works. The basis for the analysis were the results of the study performed in 2008–2014 in unmodified and transformed lowland watercourses in Lower Silesia. 41 study sections were analysed in 11 watercourses. 30 sections were located in regulated watercourses, while 11 were in unmodified streams. The research included vascular aquatic plants identification and the degree of the bottom coverage by these plants. As a result of regulatory works qualitative and quantitative changes in aquatic plants communities were observed. The analysis of these changes concerning the range and conditions of works conduction enabled assigning measures to the factors of the considered risk. It served as a basis for describing the risk register and the matrix of risk. The study demonstrated that the most important threats resulting from the river regulation from the point of view of environmental protection are complete shading of watercourse bed, and in some cases, bed widening and deepening, embankments slope of 1: 1, 1: 0, embankments protection with stone material or their concreting.

  5. Risk assessment as a prediction of recidivism

    OpenAIRE

    Zavackis, Anvars

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is one of the key organising frameworks of crime control in modern society. The aim of the thesis is to research risk assessment practices in predicting crime recidivism and to assess the consequences of implementing these practices, also providing for description of historical, social, cultural and political aspects of their development and maintenance. The initial analysis of risk is a theoretical one, employing insights from different risk sociology theories....

  6. Vulnerability assessment and risk level of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation in the High-Atlas mountain of Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messouli, Mohammed; Bounoua, Lahouari; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Ben Salem, Abdelkrim; Yacoubi-Khebiza, Mohammed

    2010-05-01

    Moroccan mountain biomes are considered endangered due to climate change that affects directly or indirectly different key features (biodiversity, snow cover, run-off processes, and water availability). The present article describes the strategy for achieving collaboration between natural and social scientists, stakeholders, decision-makers, and other societal groups, in order to carry out an integrated assessment of climate change in the High-Atlas Mountains of Morocco, with an emphasis on vulnerability and adaptation. We will use a robust statistical technique to dynamically downscale outputs from the IPCC climates models to the regional study area. Statistical downscaling provides a powerful method for deriving local-to-regional scale information on climate variables from large-scale climate model outputs. The SDSM will be used to produce the high resolution climate change scenarios from climate model outputs at low resolution. These data will be combined with socio-economic attributes such as the amount of water used for irrigation of agricultural lands, agricultural practices and phenology, cost of water delivery and non-market values of produced goods and services. This study, also analyzed spatial and temporal in land use/land cover changes (LUCC) in a typical watershed covering an area of 203 km2 by comparing classified satellite images from 1976, 1989 and 2000 coupled by GIS analyses and also investigated changes in the shape of land use patches over the period. The GIS-platform, which compiles gridded spatial and temporal information of environmental, socio-economic and biophysical data is used to map vulnerability assessment and risk levels over a wide region of Southern High-Atlas. For each scenario, we will derive and analyze near future (10-15 years) key climate indicators strongly related to sustainable management of ecosystem goods and services. Forest cover declined at an average rate of 0.35 ha per year due to timber extraction, cultivation

  7. Risk assessment of silver nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipelin, V. A.; Gmoshinski, I. V.; Khotimchenko, S. A.

    2015-11-01

    Nanoparticles of metallic silver (Ag) are among the most widely used products of nanotechnology. Nanosized colloidal silver (NCS) is presented in many kinds of production as solutions of particles with diameter less than 100 nm. NCS is used in a variety of fields, including food supplements, medicines, cosmetics, packaging materials, disinfectants, water filters, and many others. Problems of toxicity and related safety of NCS for humans and environmental systems are recently overestimated basing on data of numerous toxicological studies in vitro and in vivo. The article discusses the results of current studies in recent years and the data of author's own experiments on studying the safety of NCS, that allows to move on to risk assessment of this nanomaterial presented in consumer products and environmental samples.

  8. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  9. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  10. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  11. European risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaver, M.H.A.; Luiijf, H.A.M.; Nieuwenhuijs, A.H.; Cavenne, F.; Ulisse, A.; Bridegeman, G.

    2008-01-01

    Most risk assessment methodologies aim at the risk at the level of an individual organization or company. The European Union commissioned a study to define the elements for a uniform and scalable risk assessment methodology which takes into account critical infrastructure dependencies across organiz

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  14. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  15. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  16. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  17. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  18. Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Wamsler, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Urban communities will face increased risks, such as floods, landslides, heat stress and fires and water scarcity, as a consequence of climate change. The latest IPCC report (AR5) has for the first time devoted a whole chapter to urban areas. The assessment stresses the need to tackle urban risk through more effective adaptation planning.

  19. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-01-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According ...

  20. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.;

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... the area forward. Three possible approaches to safety assessment and risk assessment for allergenic foods were presented and discussed: safety assessment using NOAEL/LOAEL and uncertainty factors, safety assessment using Benchmark Dose and Margin of Exposure (MoE), and risk assessment using probabilistic...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic...

  1. Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

  2. Risk Assessment Update: Russian Segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Eric; Lear, Dana; Hyde, James; Bjorkman, Michael; Hoffman, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    BUMPER-II version 1.95j source code was provided to RSC-E- and Khrunichev at January 2012 MMOD TIM in Moscow. MEMCxP and ORDEM 3.0 environments implemented as external data files. NASA provided a sample ORDEM 3.0 g."key" & "daf" environment file set for demonstration and benchmarking BUMPER -II v1.95j installation at the Jan-12 TIM. ORDEM 3.0 has been completed and is currently in beta testing. NASA will provide a preliminary set of ORDEM 3.0 ".key" & ".daf" environment files for the years 2012 through 2028. Bumper output files produced using the new ORDEM 3.0 data files are intended for internal use only, not for requirements verification. Output files will contain these words ORDEM FILE DESCRIPTION = PRELIMINARY VERSION: not for production. The projectile density term in many BUMPER-II ballistic limit equations will need to be updated. Cube demo scripts and output files delivered at the Jan-12 TIM have been updated for the new ORDEM 3.0 data files. Risk assessment results based on ORDEM 3.0 and MEM will be presented for the Russian Segment (RS) of ISS.

  3. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  4. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  5. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  6. Soil invertebrate community change over fuel-contaminated sites on a subantarctic island: An ecological field-based line of evidence for site risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasley, Jane; Mooney, Thomas J; King, Catherine K

    2016-04-01

    A number of fuel spills, of both recent and historic origins, have occurred on World Heritage-listed subantarctic Macquarie Island. Sites contaminated by mainly diesel fuels are undergoing remediation by the Australian Antarctic Division. The risks posed by these sites are being managed using a "weight of evidence" approach, for which this study provides a preliminary line of evidence for the ecological assessment component of this site management decision framework. This knowledge is pertinent, given the absence of environmental guidelines for fuel contaminants in subantarctic ecosystems. We provide a field-based, site-specific ecological risk assessment for soil invertebrate communities across the fuel spill sites, before the commencement of in situ remediation activities. Springtails (Collembola) were the most abundant taxa. Springtail community patterns showed only limited correlations with the level of fuel contamination at the soil surface, even when elevated levels occurred in the substratum layers. Of the environmental variables measured, community patterns were most strongly correlated with vegetation cover. We identify a suite of 6 species that contribute most to the community dynamics across these sites. A subset of these we propose as useful candidates for future development of single-species toxicity tests: Folsomotoma punctata, Cryptopygus caecus, Cryptopygus antarcticus and Parisotoma insularis. Findings from this study advance our understanding of soil invertebrate community dynamics within these contaminated sites, directly contributing to the improved management and restoration of the sites. Not only does this study provide an important line of evidence for the island's ecological risk assessment for fuel contaminants, it also enhances our understanding of the potential impact of fuels at other subantarctic islands.

  7. Soil invertebrate community change over fuel-contaminated sites on a subantarctic island: An ecological field-based line of evidence for site risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasley, Jane; Mooney, Thomas J; King, Catherine K

    2016-04-01

    A number of fuel spills, of both recent and historic origins, have occurred on World Heritage-listed subantarctic Macquarie Island. Sites contaminated by mainly diesel fuels are undergoing remediation by the Australian Antarctic Division. The risks posed by these sites are being managed using a "weight of evidence" approach, for which this study provides a preliminary line of evidence for the ecological assessment component of this site management decision framework. This knowledge is pertinent, given the absence of environmental guidelines for fuel contaminants in subantarctic ecosystems. We provide a field-based, site-specific ecological risk assessment for soil invertebrate communities across the fuel spill sites, before the commencement of in situ remediation activities. Springtails (Collembola) were the most abundant taxa. Springtail community patterns showed only limited correlations with the level of fuel contamination at the soil surface, even when elevated levels occurred in the substratum layers. Of the environmental variables measured, community patterns were most strongly correlated with vegetation cover. We identify a suite of 6 species that contribute most to the community dynamics across these sites. A subset of these we propose as useful candidates for future development of single-species toxicity tests: Folsomotoma punctata, Cryptopygus caecus, Cryptopygus antarcticus and Parisotoma insularis. Findings from this study advance our understanding of soil invertebrate community dynamics within these contaminated sites, directly contributing to the improved management and restoration of the sites. Not only does this study provide an important line of evidence for the island's ecological risk assessment for fuel contaminants, it also enhances our understanding of the potential impact of fuels at other subantarctic islands. PMID:26202610

  8. A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

    2015-04-01

    Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation

  9. Risk assessment of plant protection products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hardy T

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR Panel provides independent scientific advice in the field of risk assessment of plant protection products (PPPs, pesticides. Since its establishment in 2003 under Regulation (EC No 178/2002, it has delivered a series of scientific outputs in support of evaluation of pesticide active substances, establishing scientific principles and guidance documents in the field of pesticide risk assessment and in support of decision making of European Union (EU law makers. Next to a series of scientific opinions evaluating specific adverse effects of PPPs for human health (like for instance carcinogenicity the Panel also delivered scientific opinions on general principles in the field of human health risk assessment (like reference value setting and is, in particular over the last years, very much engaged in development of methodologies to meet new challenges in regulatory risk assessments such as assessment of toxicity of pesticide metabolites and potential cumulative effects of pesticides to human health. Fate, behaviour and transformation of pesticides after their application and consequent release to the environment are a major aspect of pesticide risk assessment. The PPR Panel has achieved major accomplishments by delivering guidance and scientific opinions on degradation in soil, exposure of soil organisms and assessment of environmental risks by use of pesticides in greenhouses or grown under cover. A series of scientific opinions have been delivered also in the field of environmental risk assessment of pesticides. Scientific output covered specific issues arising in the peer review of specific active substances, revision of data requirements, development of risk assessment methodologies and the development of guidance documents. A major milestone of the PPR Panel was the development of the methodological framework for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk

  10. GHGT-11 - Integrated Carbon Risk Assessment (ICARAS)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wollenweber, J.; Busby, D.; Wessel-Berg, D.; Nepveu, M.; Bossie Codreanu, D.; Grimstad, A-A.; Sijacic, D.; Maurand, N.; Lothe, A.; Wahl, F.; Polak, S.; Boot, H.; Grøver, A.; Wildenborg, T.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper an integrated workflow is described for risk assessment within CCS. IFPEN, SINTEF and TNO joined forces to define a comprehensive and transparent risk assessment methodology. The tools developed in these institutes are thereby integrated. The workflow can be applied to proposed carbon

  11. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to aquat

  12. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  13. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  14. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  15. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  16. Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

  17. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.;

    2012-01-01

    types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include...

  18. Mathematical Approach to Security Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Vrabel; Marcel Abas; Pavol Tanuska; Pavel Vazan; Michal Kebisek; Michal Elias; Zuzana Sutova; Dusan Pavliak

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to provide a mathematical threat modeling methodology and a threat risk assessment tool that may assist security consultants at assessing the security risks in their protected systems/plants, nuclear power plants and stores of hazardous substances: explosive atmospheres and flammable and combustible gases and liquids, and so forth, and at building an appropriate risk mitigation policy. The probability of a penetration into the protected objects is estimated by com...

  19. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH)

  20. Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

  1. Identification and Categorization of Climate Change Risks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yuehong; WU Shaohong; DAI Erfu; LIU Dengwei; YIN Yunhe

    2008-01-01

    The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable,which may put many social,biological,and geophysical systems in the world at risk.In this paper,we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change.Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council.We proposed that "uncertainty" could be treated as the classification criteria.Based on this,we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory,in which "confidence" and "likelihood",the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC,were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types.According to the maximum principle,most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types.In the mean time,given that not all the quantitative terms are available,a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method.Finally,we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization,which might lay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.

  2. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  3. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Zhengchao Ma; Dan Zhang; Wangyang Wei; Chunlei Yang; Qingtao Wu; Mingchuan Zhang; Ruijuan Zheng

    2013-01-01

    In terms of Internet of Things (IOT) system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi...

  4. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Voss, T.; Lenstra, Arjen K.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is currently under development for deployment. We show how to find a risk mitigation strategy that is optimal with respect to the model used and the available budget.

  5. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China

    OpenAIRE

    Zhi-Lan Wang; Jing Wang; Jin-Song Wang

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern ...

  6. An IOT Security Risk Autonomic Assessment Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengchao Ma

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In terms of Internet of Things (IOT system with the possibility criterion of fuzziness and randomness security risk, we qualitatively analyze the security risk level of IOT security scene by describing generalization metrics the potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of every major threat scenarios. On this basis, we proposed self-assessment algorithm of IOT security risk, adopting three-dimensional normal cloud model integrated consideration of risk indicators, researching the multi-rule mapping relationship between the qualitative input of safety indicators and the quantitative reasoning of self-assessment. Finally, we build security risk assessment simulation platform, and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm in the premise of substantiating the risk level and the safety criterion domain.

  7. Models to Assess the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Valeria TOMA

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Closely related to financial risk assessment, one of the main concerns of the organizations should be the evaluation of bankruptcy risk, in this period of slow economic growth. Organization bankruptcies have increased in recent years worldwide. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the methods and models for forecasting bankruptcy of organizations, for the bankruptcy risk assessment are seeing for the health financing of an entity in financial accounting diagnosis and that the organizations requires assessment of risks accompanying the work, in which some signals fragility (vulnerable health this and other projected bankruptcy (insolvability threatens its survival (continuity. The bankruptcy risk assessment is important for profit-seeking investors because they must know how to value a company in or near bankruptcy is an important skill, but to detect any signs of looming bankruptcy is necessary to calculate and to analyse all kinds of financial rations: working capital, profitability, debt levels and liquidity.

  8. Tajikistan Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Broka, Sandra; Giertz, Åsa; Christensen, Garry; Hanif, Charity; Rasmussen, Debra

    2016-01-01

    Agriculture is among the most risk-prone sectors in the economies of Central Asia. Production shocks from weather, pests and diseases and adverse movements in agricultural product and input prices not only impact farmers and agri-business firms, but can also strain government finances. Some of these risks are small and localized and can be managed by producers. Others are the result of mor...

  9. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  10. Security risk assessment handbook a complete guide for performing security risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Landoll, Douglas J

    2005-01-01

    The Security Risk Assessment Handbook: A Complete Guide for Performing Security Risk Assessments provides detailed insight into precisely how to conduct an information security risk assessment. Designed for security professionals and their customers who want a more in-depth understanding of the risk assessment process, this volume contains real-world advice that promotes professional development. It also enables security consumers to better negotiate the scope and rigor of a security assessment, effectively interface with a security assessment team, deliver insightful comments on a draft repor

  11. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Creutzig, Felix; Ravindranath, N. H.; Berndes, Göran;

    2015-01-01

    -scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land-intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration......Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation......: Land-use and energy experts, land-use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life-cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state-of-the-art knowledge on various climate effects...

  12. Impacts of Climate Change and of Anthropisation on Water Resources: from the Risk Assessment to Adaptation, the Case of the Seine Basin (including Paris, France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habets, F.; Viennot, P.; Thierion, C.; Vergnes, J. P.; Ait Kaci, A.; Caballero, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Seine river, located in the temperate climate of northern France and flowing over a large sedimentary basins that hosts multilayer aquifers, is characterized by small temporal variations of its discharge. However, the presence of a megacity (Paris) and a wide area of intensive agriculture combined with climate change puts pressure on the water resources both in terms of quality and quantity. Previous research projects have estimated the impact of climate change on the water resource of the Seine basin, with the uncertainties associated to climate projections, hydrological models or downscaling methods. The water resource was projected to decrease by -14 % ± 10 % in 2050 and -28 +/-16% in 2100. This led to new studies that focus on the combined impact of climate change and adaptations. The tested adaptations are: a reduction of the groundwater abstractions, evolution of land use, development of small dams to « harvest water » or artificial recharge of aquifers. The communication of the results of these projects to stakeholders have led to the development on new indicators that better express the risk on the water resource management, especially for the groundwater. For instance maps of the evolution of piezometric head are difficult to interpret. To better express the risk evolution, a new indicator was defined: the evolution of the groundwater crisis duration, ie, the period when the charge of the aquifer is below the crisis piezometric level defined by the stakeholders. Such crisis piezometric levels are used to help defining the period when the groundwater abstraction should be reduced. Such maps are more efficient to communicate with water resources managers. This communication will focus on the results from the MEDDE Explore 2070 and ANR Oracle projects.

  13. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...... as a powerful tool for the evaluation of potential health consequences of planned measures. It is often discussed whether HIA is not just another term or form of risk assessment and what is their relation. Our aim is to discuss similarities and differences between the two methods so as to clarify...

  14. Are standard tests sensitive enough to evaluate effects of human pharmaceuticals in aquatic biota? Facing changes in research approaches when performing risk assessment of drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Martínez, G V; Owuor, M A; Garrido-Pérez, C; Salamanca, M J; Del Valls, T A; Martín-Díaz, M L

    2015-02-01

    Nowadays, the presence of pharmaceutical products in aquatic environments is not only common, but is also of significant concern regarding the adverse effect they may produce to aquatic biota. In order to determine the adverse effects of caffeine (CAF), ibuprofen (IBU), carbamazepine (CBZ) and novobiocin (NOV), at environmental occurring concentrations, standardized endpoints applied in current guidelines were evaluated in four organisms including bioluminescence response in Vibrio fischeri, growth inhibition in Isochrysis galbana (marine water) and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (fresh water) and fertilization and embryo-larval development in Paracentrotus lividus. To reach this aim bioassays were implemented by exposing organisms to water spiked with drugs dissolved in DMSO (0.001% v/v). Risk characterization was performed, calculating the environmental impact of drugs by calculating environmental concentration and predicted no effect concentration ratio (MEC/PNEC). Results indicate that acute toxicity was found above environmental concentrations in the order of mg L(-1) for bacteria bioluminescence, microalgae growth inhibition and sea urchin fertilization. However, teratogenicity was observed on sea urchin after exposure to environmental concentrations of drugs at 0.00001 mg L(-1); at this concentration CBZ and IBU were found to reduce significantly the embryo-larval development compared to controls (p<0.01). The risk calculated for selected drugs suggested they are harmless for aquatic environment except when applying the embryo-larval development endpoint. Endpoints applied in this study showed the necessity of using more sensitive responses, when assessing risk of pharmaceuticals in aquatic environments, since endpoints applied in current guidelines may not be suitable.

  15. Study on the mechanism of cytotoxic effects of radiation and chemicals and development of risk assessment method. Changes in telomere and telomerase in mutated animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It has been known that the carcinogenic risk for radiation, chemical agents, etc. of Mus musulus molossinus MUG (MUG) maintained in laboratory is comparatively low compared with laboratory strains of mouse although the cause is not unclear. Here, aiming to develop a new assessment system for general risk including biological effects of radiation, chemical agents, etc., an investigation was made on the length of telomere and the telomerase activity. Three strains of laboratory mouse, C57BL/6, C3H and DBA, and molossinus were used as the subjects. Whole DNA was extracted from various organs; brain, lung, thymus, spleen, liver, kidney and testis, and the length of telomere was determined by Southern blotting method using a probe to recognize the telomere sequence. The telomere length of MUG was about 40 Kb for any DNA from the organs examined. This length (40 Kb) was much longer than the length in human cord blood lymphocyte. However, there was no difference in the telomere length between the three laboratory strains and MUG. The activity of telomerase was carried out by fluorescence telomeric repeat amplification protocol method, which is a slightly modified method of the conventional one. Highly accurate determination of telomerase activity was possible by the use of fluorescent sequencer. As to the liver, telomerase activity was lower (50%) in MUG than the laboratory strains, but there was no difference in the activities in other organs among those strains. Thus, it was suggested that the difference in telomerase activity in the liver might be related to the low carcinogenic risk of MUG. (M.N.)

  16. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Game, Edward T.; Fitzsimons, James A.; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-12-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner.

  17. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  18. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  19. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Gerald G; Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2011-02-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems-in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender's (even if the defender's experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

  20. Managing climate change risk : emerging financial sector expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engagement of the financial sector in the climate change debate is apparent, with social investors and advocacy groups launching 32 climate change related shareholder resolutions with American and Canadian energy companies in 2003. Eos Research and Consulting Ltd. recently conducted a study to examine emerging standards for how energy companies manage climate change related risks. A survey was conducted in the first part of the study to determine the environmental awareness of energy companies. Financial firms were asked whether they sought information concerning GHG inventories; projections of future emissions; action plans for addressing climate change and energy efficiency; evaluation of relative risk; estimation of cost of carbon; assessment of financial impact; evaluation of future regulations; and emissions trading activity. The second part of the study compared the response of 11 leading energy companies. The result was 2 opposing views on how climate change risks should be managed. The survey revealed that while most mainstream financial institutions are not paying much attention to climate change issues, socially responsible investment (SRI) investors are aware and working to factor climate change risk management information into their activities. In addition, SRI is growing at a faster pace than other investment segments, which may lead to greater future expectations for energy companies' climate change risk management efforts. It was concluded that the financial sector may emerge as an important source of direction that will guide energy companies in their future efforts to manage climate change risks. The five trends that contribute to the sector's emerging role are the continuing influence of advocacy groups; evolution of socially responsible approaches to investment; growing concerns for reputation; development of financial risk assessment approaches in terms of climate change; and, increase focus on corporate governance issues. 15 refs., 2 tabs., 1

  1. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  2. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  3. Influence of the human reliability in the assessment of the impact on the risk of changes of CLO; Influencia de la fiabilidad humana en la evaluacion del impacto en el riesgo de cambios de CLO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martorell, P.; Martorell, S.; Marton, I.; Saiz, M.

    2014-07-01

    Treatment and study of epistemic uncertainties is of special importance in the application of the analysis of probabilistic security to informed decision-making in risk, as points out the guide regulatory 1,174 [1] (Regulatory Guide 1,174, RG1.174). Specifically, the RG 1.177 [2] details of the impact on risk assessment concerning changes in the technical operating specifications (ETF). Based on the framework defined by such regulatory guides, will be assessed the effect of uncertainties epistemic associated with the analysis of human reliability in the context of the limit conditions of operation. As an example of application, will be held a sensitivity study of the time of inoperability Completion Time, the Residual heat removal system. (Author)

  4. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-12-01

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  5. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  6. Safety Factors in Pesticide Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegaard, N.; Jagers op Akkerhuis, G. A. J. M.

    Foreword It has become common practice to protect the environment from hazardous chemicals by use of risk assessment to establish environmental concentration at which only limited damage to the ecosystem can be expected. The methods and tools applied in the risk assessment need constant evaluation...... to secure that the methodology is adequate. As new knowledge surfaces the risk assessment procedures develops. The present report is a contribution to the development of safety factors used to account for the uncertainty when · extrapolating from the results of test with a single species in the laboratory...... factors used in pesticide risk assessment: the variability in species sensitivities, and the relationship between acute LC50's and chronic NOEC's....

  7. Bayesian networks for enterprise risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bonafede, C E

    2006-01-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover qualitative data must be converted in numerical values to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Network is a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a Bayesian networks in the parti...

  8. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment: A Methodological Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Christensen, Frans Møller; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2001-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment are two different tools in environmental management. The paper identifies harmonies, discrepancies and relations between the two tools exemplified by the risk assessment principles of the European Commission (EC) and the LCA method ‘EDIP’ (En......-vironmental Design of Industrial Products) developed in Denmark, respectively. A very important feature of LCA is the relative assessment due to the use of a functional unit. Risk assessment on the other hand is an absolute assessment, which may require very specific and detailed information on e.g. the exposure...... conditions. It is concluded that the conceptual background and the purpose of the tools are different but that there are overlaps where they may benefit from each other and they do complement each other in an overall environmental effort....

  9. Ecological risk assessment of boreal sediments affected by metal mining: Metal geochemistry, seasonality, and comparison of several risk assessment methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Väänänen, Kristiina; Kauppila, Tommi; Mäkinen, Jari; Leppänen, Matti T; Lyytikäinen, Merja; Akkanen, Jarkko

    2016-10-01

    The mining industry is a common source of environmental metal emissions, which cause long-lasting effects in aquatic ecosystems. Metal risk assessment is challenging due to variations in metal distribution, speciation, and bioavailability. Therefore, seasonal effects must be better understood, especially in boreal regions in which seasonal changes are large. We sampled 4 Finnish lakes and sediments affected by mining for metals and geochemical characteristics in autumn and late winter, to evaluate seasonal changes in metal behavior, the importance of seasonality in risk assessment, and the sensitivity and suitability of different risk assessment methods. We compared metal concentrations in sediment, overlying water, and porewater against environmental quality guidelines (EQGs). We also evaluated the toxicity of metal mixtures using simultaneously extracted metals and an acid volatile sulfides (SEM-AVS) approach together with water quality criteria (US Environmental Protection Agency equilibrium partitioning benchmarks). Finally, site-specific risks for 3 metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) were assessed using 2 biotic ligand models (BLMs). The metal concentrations in the impacted lakes were elevated. During winter stratification, the hypolimnetic O2 saturation levels were low (89%) and neutral pH (6.1-7.5) were found after the autumnal water overturn. Guidelines were the most conservative benchmark for showing an increased risk of toxicity in the all of the lakes. The situation remained stable between seasons. On the other hand, SEM-AVS, equilibrium partition sediment benchmarks (ESBs), and BLMs provided a clearer distinction between lakes and revealed a seasonal variation in risk among some of the lakes, which evidenced a higher risk during late winter. If a sediment risk assessment is based on the situation in the autumn, the overall risk may be underestimated. It is advisable to carry out sampling and risk assessment during periods in which metals are assumed to be the most

  10. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  11. Bench Scale Process for Low Cost CO2 Capture Using a Phase-Changing Absorbent: Topical Report EH&S Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westendorf, Tiffany; Farnum, Rachel; Perry, Robert; Herwig, Mark; Giolando, Salvatore; Green, Dianne; Morall, Donna

    2016-05-11

    GE Global Research was contracted by the Department of Energy to design and build a bench-scale process for a novel phase-changing aminosilicone-based CO2 capture solvent (award number DEFE0013687). As part of this program, a technology EH&S assessment (Subtask 5.1) has been completed for a CO2 capture system for a 550 MW coal-fired power plant. The assessment focuses on two chemicals used in the process, the aminosilicone solvent, GAP-0, and dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid (DDBSA), the GAP-0 carbamate formed upon reaction of the GAP-0 with CO2, and two potential byproducts formed in the process, GAP-0/SOx salts and amine-terminated, urea-containing silicone (also referred to as “ureas” in this report). The EH&S assessment identifies and estimates the magnitude of the potential air and water emissions and solid waste generated by the process and reviews the toxicological profiles of the chemicals associated with the process. Details regarding regulatory requirements, engineering controls, and storage and handling procedures are also provided in the following sections.

  12. Risk assessment in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Veale, David; Freeston, M; Krebs, Georgina; Heyman, Isobel; Salkovskis, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Some people with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) experience recurrent intrusive sexual, aggressive or death-related thoughts and as a result may be subjected to lengthy or inappropriate risk assessments. These apparent ‘primary’ risks can be dealt with relatively easily through a careful understanding of the disorder’s phenomenology. However, there are other, less obvious ‘secondary’ risks, which require more careful consideration. This article discusses the differentiation of intrusive t...

  13. Risk Assessment Techniques for Civil Aviation Security

    OpenAIRE

    Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimisation of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantifi...

  14. Risk assessment in Finland: theory and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttonen, Hannu; Pääkkönen, Rauno

    2010-09-01

    The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in small and medium sized enterprises and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in OSH are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product. PMID:22953157

  15. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as currently

  16. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  17. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  20. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeger M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU. Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series of guidance documents. These deal with the peer review of existing pest risk assessments, a framework for conducting risk assessments which harmonise standards set by the International Plant Protection Convention and the legislative requirements of the EU, and extension of this framework to include environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils, application of spatial spread models, re-evaluation of quantitative pathway analyses, and in statistical modelling of experimental data. A Plant Health Network has been established to facilitate interaction with EU Member States, especially in relation to data collection and co-ordination of risk assessment activities. At the current time a revision of the EU Plant Health Regime is being formulated. The legislative consequences of the revision will be of considerable significance for the work of the Plant Health Panel.

  1. Landscape ecological risk assessment in the Taihu region based on land use change%基于土地利用动态变化的太湖地区景观生态风险评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许妍; 高俊峰; 高永年

    2011-01-01

    在GIS和RS技术支持下,以遥感数据和土地利用数据为基础,以行政区划为评价单元,定量分析太湖地区1990-2008年土地利用变化及其转化关系;从土地利用变化和景观结构角度构建景观生态风险评价模型,定量评价了研究区内景观生态风险的时空动态变化特征.结果表明:太湖地区景观生态风险分布与区内土地利用方式和强度具有较高关联.景观生态风险整体呈上升趋势,高生态风险区范围不断扩大;受自然特征和社会经济发展影响,景观生态风险空间分异显著,较低风险区主要分布于以苕溪为主的山地丘陵区,中等风险区主要分布于农业发达的平原区,较高风险区及高风险区主要集中于沿湖经济发达区.不同区域景观生态风险来源存在一定差异,各用地类型对生态风险的贡献率亦不尽相同,就全区而言,景观生态风险主要来源于耕地和建设用地,但随着社会经济不断发展,来自水域和林地的生态风险比例越来越大.%The quantitative analysis of the land use change and its transformation relationship in the Taihu region during 1990 -2008 was put forward, using CIS and RS technologies, based on the remote sensing data and land use data, taking the administrative division as the assessment units. The assessment model comprising a landscape disturbance index and a land use sensitivity index was established on the base of land use change and landscape perspective to assess the landscape ecological risk characteristics of temporal and spatial change in study area. The results showed that the distribution of ecological risk had higher associated with the intensity and pattern of land use change. As a whole, the landscape ecological risk had been rising in the past 18 years; the area of high ecological risk was expanding. Due to the physical characteristics and social economy, the spatial variation of landscape ecological risk was significant. The low

  2. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  3. Benefit-Risk Assessment in Drug Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarac, Sinan

    This thesis covers the development, testing and use of an eight-step structured method for data-driven benefit-risk assessment. The aim of this thesis was to create a tailored method for the assessment of clinical data. The focus has been on three major aspects: (i) A simple preliminary method wa...

  4. Risk Assessment Study for Storage Explosive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. Azhar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, there has been rapidly increasing usage in amount of explosives due to widely expansion in quarrying and mining industries. The explosives are usually stored in the storage where the safety precaution had given high attention. As the storage of large quantity of explosive can be hazardous to workers and nearby residents in the events of accidental denotation of explosives, a risk assessment study for storage explosive (magazine had been carried out. Risk assessment study had been conducted in Kimanis Quarry Sdn. Bhd, located in Sabah. Risk assessment study had been carried out with the identification of hazards and failure scenarios and estimation of the failure frequency of occurrence. Analysis of possible consequences of failure and the effects of blast waves due to the explosion was evaluated. The risk had been estimated in term of fatalities and eardrum rupture to the workers and public. The average individual voluntary risk for fatality to the workers at the quarry is calculated to be 5.75 x 10-6 per person per year, which is much lower than the acceptable level. Eardrum rupture risk calculated to be 3.15 x 10-6 per person per year for voluntary risk. There is no involuntary risk found for fatality but for eardrum rupture it was calculated to be 6.98 x 10-8 per person per year, as given by Asian Development Bank.

  5. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  6. Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of "Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios." The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

  7. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  8. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs)

    OpenAIRE

    Waigmann E; Paoletti C; Davies H; Perry J; Kärenlampi S; Kuiper H

    2012-01-01

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC) No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authoris...

  9. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  10. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David;

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  11. Can we assess genetic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In recent years, somatic considerations have been weighed more heavily than genetic risks in determining radiation standards, although the genetic risks cannot be ignored. Familiar generalizations about mutations may be that almost all mutants, chromosomal or point mutations, are harmful or at best neutral. At any one time, population is to some extent impaired by recurrent mutation. The extent of impairment depends on many things, but particularly it depends on the mutation rate. If population is at equilibrium, there is a standing number of mutant genes, determined by the balance between recurrent mutation and the elimination of mutants by selection and other factors. Doubling of mutation and halving of individual mutant damage have essentially the same effect. If a mutant reduces the Darwinian fitness of its bearer by 1%, it will affect on the average 100 individuals before it is eliminated. The data obtained from the experiments with Drosophila suggest that the ratio of mutants, whose homozygous effect is lethal to those whose effect is mild, is higher in radiation-induced mutants than in spontaneous ones. Chemically-induced mutants may be more like spontaneous mutants. All measures of congenital defects, morphology, survival, and sex-ratio have shown no difference between the children of exposed parents and those of control groups, as observed in the Hiroshima-Nagasaki studies. The heterozygous effects of recessive mutants, minor deleterious mutants and the expression of recessive condition spread out over a long time, and are diluted so that the impact on a single generation is very slight. (Yamashita, S.)

  12. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  13. Changes in risk perception over time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The focus of this paper is on changes in perceptions of the risks associated with nuclear waste management over time. In particular, we are interested in the kinds of change that take place when the management programs, and those who are charged with implementing them, are subject to intensive public debate over an extended period of time. We are undertaken an over-time study of perceived risks in Colorado and New Mexico by implementing sequential random household surveys in each state, timed at six month intervals. This study employs three of these surveys, spanning the period from summer, 1990 to summer, 1991. Using these data, we examine the dynamics that may underlie variations in perceived risks over time. In particular, our analysis is focused on changes in the roles played by (1) basic political orientations (i.e. political ideology) and (2) trust in those who advocate conflicting policy positions

  14. QRAS-the quantitative risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an overview of QRAS, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System. QRAS is a PC-based software tool for conducting Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs), which was developed to address risk analysis needs held by NASA. QRAS is, however, applicable in a wide range of industries. The philosophy behind the development of QRAS is to bridge communication and skill gaps between managers, engineers, and risk analysts by using representations of the risk model and analysis results that are easy to comprehend by each of those groups. For that purpose, event sequence diagrams (ESD) are being used as a replacement for event trees (ET) to model scenarios, and the quantification of events is possible through a set of quantification models familiar to engineers. An automated common cause failure (CCF) modeling tool further aids the risk modeling. QRAS applies BDD-based algorithms for the accurate and efficient computation of risk results. The paper presents QRAS' modeling and analysis capabilities. The performance of the underlying BDD algorithm is assessed and compared to that of another PRA software tool, using a case study extracted from the International Space Station PRA

  15. Risk assessment of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waigmann E

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available

    EFSA’s remit in the risk assessment of GMOs is very broad encompassing genetically modified plants, microorganisms and animals and assessing their safety for humans, animals and the environment. The legal frame for GMOs is set by Directive 2001/18/EC on their release into the environment, and Regulation (EC No 1829/2003 on GM food and feed. The main focus of EFSA’s GMO Panel and GMO Unit lies in the evaluation of the scientific risk assessment of new applications for market authorisation of GMOs, and in the development of corresponding guidelines for the applicants. The EFSA GMO Panel has elaborated comprehensive guidance documents on GM plants, GM microorganisms and GM animals, as well as on specific aspects of risk assessment such as the selection of comparators. EFSA also provides special scientific advice upon request of the European Commission; examples are post-market environmental monitoring of GMOs, and consideration of potential risks of new plant breeding techniques. The GMO Panel regularly reviews its guidance documents in the light of experience gained with the evaluation of applications, technological progress in breeding technologies and scientific developments in the diverse areas of risk assessment.

  16. Integrating public risk perception into formal natural hazard risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. Plattner

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available An urgent need to take perception into account for risk assessment has been pointed out by relevant literature, its impact in terms of risk-related behaviour by individuals is obvious. This study represents an effort to overcome the broadly discussed question of whether risk perception is quantifiable or not by proposing a still simple but applicable methodology. A novel approach is elaborated to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive quantification of risk in comparison to present formal risk evaluation practice. A consideration of relevant factors enables a explicit quantification of individual risk perception and evaluation. The model approach integrates the effective individual risk reff and a weighted mean of relevant perception affecting factors PAF. The relevant PAF cover voluntariness of risk-taking, individual reducibility of risk, knowledge and experience, endangerment, subjective damage rating and subjective recurrence frequency perception. The approach assigns an individual weight to each PAF to represent its impact magnitude. The quantification of these weights is target-group-dependent (e.g. experts, laypersons and may be effected by psychometric methods. The novel approach is subject to a plausibility check using data from an expert-workshop. A first model application is conducted by means of data of an empirical risk perception study in Western Germany to deduce PAF and weight quantification as well as to confirm and evaluate model applicbility and flexibility. Main fields of application will be a quantification of risk perception by individual persons in a formal and technical way e.g. for the purpose of risk communication issues in illustrating differing perspectives of experts and non-experts. For decision making processes this model will have to be applied with caution, since it is by definition not designed to quantify risk acceptance or risk evaluation. The approach may well explain how risk perception differs, but not

  17. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  18. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  19. Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi Xiaoli; Wu Shaohong; Dai Erfu; Zhao Dongsheng; Pan mao

    2012-01-01

    Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon seques- tration, and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terres- trial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations. Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model, each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis. Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated. The results show that, in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario, climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestra- tion, and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems. The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree. By the end of the long-term of this century, about 60% of the whole country will face the risk; Northwest China, mountainous areas in Northeast China, middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas, Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable. Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree, and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term. Northwest China will become an area of high risks, and deciduous coniferous forests, temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.

  20. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  1. Clinical practice of risk assessment of sexual violence

    OpenAIRE

    Judge, Joseph Gerard

    2012-01-01

    Background: Risk assessment of sexual violence involves evidence based evaluation of the risks posed by sexual offenders. It informs risk management; the provision of treatment that reduces the risk of future sexual violence. Previous research has focused on assessment of the predictive accuracy of different risk assessment tools, as well as the identification of risk factors that are associated with recidivism. In contrast, the clinical practice of risk assessment is a research a...

  2. Method and apparatus for assessing cardiovascular risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Paul (Inventor); Bigger, J. Thomas (Inventor); Cohen, Richard J. (Inventor)

    1998-01-01

    The method for assessing risk of an adverse clinical event includes detecting a physiologic signal in the subject and determining from the physiologic signal a sequence of intervals corresponding to time intervals between heart beats. The long-time structure of fluctuations in the intervals over a time period of more than fifteen minutes is analyzed to assess risk of an adverse clinical event. In a preferred embodiment, the physiologic signal is an electrocardiogram and the time period is at least fifteen minutes. A preferred method for analyzing the long-time structure variability in the intervals includes computing the power spectrum and fitting the power spectrum to a power law dependence on frequency over a selected frequency range such as 10.sup.-4 to 10.sup.-2 Hz. Characteristics of the long-time structure fluctuations in the intervals is used to assess risk of an adverse clinical event.

  3. EPA's approach to assessment of radon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency has assessed the potential lung cancer risk to the general population due to radon based on the Agency's general principles of risk assessment. This is the same approach that has been used to assess the impact on public health of other carcinogenic environmental pollutants. This paper describes the application of this approach to radon. This paper includes a description of the method used by the Agency to estimate that 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year may be related to radon exposure. Also presented are the weight-of-evidence for classifying radon as a known human carcinogen and the uncertainties associated with estimating risks from radon exposure. These reflect the extent of the underlying support and context for these estimates

  4. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    decisionmakers better decide on which risk assessment/analysis framework may be best suited for the specific risk decision at hand. Among other results, we find that while many of the assessed frameworks have their advantages along with limitations, most may require potentially lengthy decision-making processes...... of uncertainty, degree of precaution, inclusion of quantitative or qualitative data, inclusion of life-cycle perspective, iterative and/or adaptive, ensuring timely decision making, and degree of transparency. This analysis can ultimately assist scientists, government agencies, organizations, and other......Assessing the environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM) is currently an intensely contested subject among scientists, organizations, governments, and policymakers. The shear number, variety, and market penetration of NM in consumer goods and other applications, including environmental...

  5. Risk assessment of biogas in kitchens

    OpenAIRE

    Leroux, Carole; Modelon, Hugues; Rousselle, Christophe; Bellenfant, Gaël; Ramalho, Olivier; Jaeg, Jean-Paul; Zdanevitch, Isabelle; Naja, Ghinwa M.

    2009-01-01

    The health risk associated with human exposure to pollutants while using biogas for cooking was assessed following the methodology described by the US - National Research Council. Information of hazardous compounds and compositions of several biogas types were extracted from scientific literature. Compositions were dependent on the biogas origin (production process). First, a quantitative approach was conducted to identify substances with a high health risk based on their Human Toxicity Value...

  6. A Risk Assessment Framework for Cloud Computing

    OpenAIRE

    Djemame, K.; Armstrong, D; Guitart, J; Macias, M.

    2014-01-01

    Cloud service providers offer access to their resources through formal Service Level Agreements (SLA), and need wellbalanced infrastructures so that they can maximise the Quality of Service (QoS) they offer and minimise the number of SLA violations. This paper focuses on a specific aspect of risk assesment as applied in cloud computing: methods within a framework that can be used by cloud service providers and service consumers to assess risk during service deployment and operation. It descri...

  7. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Vinyard; Jennifer Nielsen; C. Richard Tracy; Mary Peacock; Jason Dunham

    1999-01-01

    Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide informatio...

  8. Concepts of modern risk assessment and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbin, S B

    1994-01-01

    An emerging and increasingly complex array of environmental health concerns face dental practitioners in both the private and public sectors. These concerns are challenging and possibly threatening the traditionally inviolable dentist-patient relationship. Regulatory bodies, health risk experts, attorneys, and enthusiastic media are inserting themselves into the process. Essential assets for "successful" dental practitioners include enhanced expertise in basic science and technology, including the area of risk assessment, and development of broadened perspectives and skills for communicating with patients and the public.

  9. Current practice in tailings ponds risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Pytel, Witold

    2010-01-01

    Current practice for risk assessment posed by surface tailings/waste storage facilities is presented. This involves current legislation and regulations applied in EU countries and over the world and the basics concerned with tailings impoundments design as well. It was proved that a current activity at the existing tailings impoundment structures is presently confined rather to field measurements, monitoring and surveillance understood as a basic source for a “real time risk assessment”.

  10. Irreversivle Climate Change Will Also Change Environmental Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the environmental and management methods for climate change will not be effective after irreversible climate change occurs. Without efforts to stabilize greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to increase leading to: 1) risk to unique and threatened systems, 2) risk of extreme weather events, 3) distribution of impacts, 4) aggregate damages, and 5) risks of large-scaled discontinuities. New management systems must be put in place to protect natural capital and ecosystem se...

  11. Recidivism Risk Assessment for Adult Sexual Offenders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holoyda, Brian J; Newman, William J

    2016-02-01

    Sexual offending is a significant public health problem in the USA due to its prevalence and the substantial impact it has on victims, victims' families, and the legal and mental health systems. The assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk is an important aspect of developing effective management strategies for sexual offenders in terms of placement, treatment, and other interventions. Researchers have developed numerous tools to aid in the assessment of sexual violence recidivism risk, including actuarial measures, structured professional judgment methods, and psychophysiologic assessment of sexual interests. The Static-99R and Sexual Violence Risk-20 are two instruments that have received substantial research attention for their ability to accurately compare offenders' risk of recidivism to normative group data. Penile plethysmography and visual reaction time are used to evaluate subjects' responses to sexual stimuli in an effort to characterize offenders' sexual arousal and interest, respectively. Though current research has focused on risk assessment tools' predictive utility, future research will need to examine the impact that actuarial and structured professional judgment tools have on reducing recidivism if they are to have relevance in the management of sexual offenders. PMID:26781555

  12. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  13. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  14. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...

  15. Concepts in ecological risk assessment. Professional paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, R.K.; Seligman, P.F.

    1991-05-01

    Assessing the risk of impact to natural ecosystems from xenobiotic compounds requires an accurate characterization of the threatened ecosystem, direct measures or estimates of environmental exposure, and a comprehensive evaluation of the biological effects from actual and potential contamination. Field and laboratory methods have been developed to obtain direct measures of environmental health. These methods have been implemented in monitoring programs to assess and verify the ecological risks of contamination from past events, such as hazardous waste disposal sites, as well as future scenarios, such as the environmental consequences from the use of biocides in antifouling bottom paints for ships.

  16. Assessing bankruptcy risk for Romanian metallurgical companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.N. Borlea

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper it propose to evaluate the bankruptcy risk of the companies which operate within the Romanian metallurgy industry, over the period 2001-2012, highlighting the impact of financial crisis on this sector. The bankruptcy risk assessing by Altman Model gives us a pessimistic view of the Romanian metallurgical industry. A little more optimistic perspective on the risk of bankruptcy in Romanian metallurgy is provided by the Conan Holder Model according to which the best two Romanian metallurgical companies traded at BSE (ALR and ART face a low risk of bankruptcy. According to this model the financial crisis seems to have affected the first two Romanian metallurgical companies only in 2009, then in the following years the bankruptcy risk degrease, achieving satisfactory levels.

  17. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC......The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...

  18. Essays on financial forecasting and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Πλαστήρα, Σωτηρία Ν.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims at investigating the performance of empirical risk factors in financial forecasting and their assessment with respect to the associated risk. The thesis consists of four essays. The first essay focuses on whether the empirical HML and SMB risk factors, along with the long-term reversal and the momentum factors exhibit both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the U.S. stock returns, compared to the performance of the most widely used financial variables. Our fi...

  19. IT Risk Assessment: Developing and defining the IT Risk Assessment Process Framework in the case company

    OpenAIRE

    Damonte, Ronnie

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to define the Information Technology risk assessment process framework for an international Finnish firm belonging to a major IT corporation. The study was motivated by the fact that, in the case company, due to the lack of a common defined process for IT risk assessment, it was challenging to correctly evaluate and compare the relevancy on each risk. As a consequence, potentially misleading and inconsistent information on the impact and related importance of I...

  20. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke;

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk Managem...

  1. Climate change and drought risks for agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, J.; Put, M.; Zaal, F.; Keulen, van H.

    2004-01-01

    Changes in rainfall patterns and risk of crop failure are discussed in this chapter. Agriculture is by far the most important economic activity in the region. The success of this economic activity relies heavily on water availability during the growing season. For rainfed production systems timing a

  2. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  3. Integration of qualitative and quantitative indicators in comparative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The term risk is understood in rather different ways by the public and by scientists, and it has therefore proved difficult to evolve a framework for integrating qualitative and quantitative aspects of risk assessment. Considerable advance has been made in the analysis and quantification of health risks using epidemiology, test on organisms and modelling approaches to supply quantitative estimates. Comparative results have been presented as mortality or morbidity estimates, or some derivation of these, normalized for a 'unit of activity'. Approaches to the broad category of environmental risk assessment have progressed more slowly. Variation in the focus of interest on different organisms, or association of organisms, on different habitats, on physicochemical conditions or biological impacts, and a diversity of concerns about changes in structural or functional attributes, have all prevented a uniform approach that would enable integration and the formulation of comparative assessments. Some progress has been made through the use of a conceptual framework centred around the pressure - state - impacts - response approach. However, certain of these elements still require a method for integrating qualitative and quantitative aspects. A number of methods have been proposed; these include ranked assessments, emission or ambient quality values and transgression of critical loads or critical levels. There are also a number of management based approaches centre mainly around life cycle assessment. Future research has to focus not only on how integration might be achieved but also how such integration will be able to facilitate comparative environmental risk assessment. (author). 29 refs, 12 figs, 3 tabs

  4. A preliminary study on application of risk assessment to seismic risk management of nuclear fuel facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies on risk-informed safety regulation and/or management of nuclear installations are being carried out world widely on the background of progress in development of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology and its application. The study on PSA methodology and application is on going at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency. A PSA methodology has been developed for MOX fuel fabrication facilities in this study. A preliminary study on application of risk assessment to examine seismic risk management of nuclear fuel facilities has been also carried out as one of those research activities. A simple approach of assessing risk has been investigated based on the analytical policy so called 'graded approach' in which detail of risk analysis can be changed corresponding with the level of potential risk of facilities. Following three issues have been studied with a sample case of uranium fuel fabrication facility. (1) Approach to application of Seismic PSA to examine reasonable practicable seismic risk management, (2) Assessing method of seismic induced accident scenarios and their consequence, (3) Applicable safety level to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management. (author)

  5. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  6. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  7. Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Apel

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the 'German Research Network of Natural Disasters' (DFNK the working group 'Flood Risk Analysis' investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system. The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results

  8. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  9. Earthquake and Flood Risk Assessments for Europe and Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Daniell, J. E.; Ward, P.; Winsemius, H.; Tijssen, A.; Toro, J.

    2015-12-01

    We report on a flood and earthquake risk assessment for 32 countries in Europe and Central Asia with a focus on how current flood and earthquake risk might evolve in the future due to changes in climate, population, and GDP. The future hazard and exposure conditions used for the risk assessment are consistent with selected IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Estimates of 2030 and 2080 population and GDP are derived using the IMAGE model forced by the socioeconomic conditions associated with the SSPs. Flood risk is modeled using the probabilistic GLOFRIS global flood risk modeling cascade which starts with meteorological fields derived from reanalysis data or climate models. For 2030 and 2080 climate conditions, the meteorological fields are generated from five climate models forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Future flood risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with the SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by a flood when a grid cell receives any depth of flood inundation. The earthquake hazard is quantified using a 10,000-year stochastic catalog of over 15.8 million synthetic earthquake events of at least magnitude 5. Ground motion prediction and estimates of local site conditions are used to determine PGA. Future earthquake risk is estimated using population and GDP exposures consistent with all five SSPs. Population and GDP are defined as being affected by an earthquake when a grid cell experiences ground motion equaling or exceeding MMI VI. For most countries, changes in exposure alter flood risk to a greater extent than changes in climate. For both flood and earthquake, the spread in risk grows over time. There are large uncertainties due to the methodology; however, the results are not meant to be definitive. Instead they will be used to initiate discussions with governments regarding efforts to manage disaster risk.

  10. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  11. New risk assessment tools in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper an introduction to and description of the risk assessment tools that are freely available for companies in The Netherlands is given. It is explained in what way the tools can and should be used and how the level I checklist for physical load and the level II instruments are related. Th

  12. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  13. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides, organic

  14. Risk assessment for one-counter threads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Ponse; M.B. van der Zwaag

    2008-01-01

    Threads as contained in a thread algebra are used for the modeling of sequential program behavior. A thread that may use a counter to control its execution is called a ‘one-counter thread’. In this paper the decidability of risk assessment (a certain form of action forecasting) for one-counter threa

  15. Housing conditions in calves welfare risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Relić Renata R.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows results of calf welfare risk assessment at intensive breeding farms. Assessment has been conducted on the basis of housing conditions which can have negative influence on welfare of cattle, especially in calf category considering their needs. According to analysis results very good housing conditions were confirmed in open shed rearing stall (C and closed type rearing stall without feeding yard (A, whilst in closed rearing stall with feeding yard (B housing conditions were estimated as acceptable. Based on collected data about housing conditions, we have estimated that the least risk for calf welfare is at C farm, slightly higher at A farm and the highest at B farm. Data about housing conditions and analysis of potential welfare risk factors show possible causes for already present health and other problems with animals, which also can reappear in future. However for that reason, applying described methods can increase rearing conditions and increase production at cattle farms.

  16. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  18. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  19. Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

    2013-12-01

    Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments

  20. Patterns of Resistance in Managing Assessment Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deneen, Christopher; Boud, David

    2014-01-01

    Achieving change in assessment practices in higher education is difficult. One of the reasons for this is resistance among those responsible for teaching and assessing. This paper seeks to explore this resistance through an analysis of staff dialogue during a major attempt to change the assessment practices at one institution. An institution-wide…

  1. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; de Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. Method: the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. Results: the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. Conclusion: the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. PMID:27579936

  2. Fragility fracture: recent developments in risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspray, Terry J

    2015-02-01

    More than half of older women who sustain a fragility fracture do not have osteoporosis by World Health Organization (WHO) bone mineral density (BMD) criteria; and, while BMD has been used to assess fracture risk for over 30 years, a range of other skeletal and nonskeletal clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture have been recognized. More than 30 assessment tools using CRFs have been developed, some predicting fracture risk and others low BMD alone. Recent systematic reviews have reported that many tools have not been validated against fracture incidence, and that the complexity of tools and the number of CRFs included do not ensure best performance with poor assessment of (internal or comparative) validity. Internationally, FRAX® is the most commonly recommended tool, in addition to QFracture in the UK, The Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada (CAROC) tool in Canada and Garvan in Australia. All tools estimate standard 10-year risk of major osteoporotic and 10-year risk of hip fracture: FRAX® is able to estimate fracture risk either with or without BMD, but CAROC and Garvan both require BMD and QFracture does not. The best evidence for the utility of these tools is in case finding but there may be future prospects for the use of 10-year fracture risk as a common currency with reference to the benefits of treatment, whether pharmacological or lifestyle. The use of this metric is important in supporting health economic analyses. However, further calibration studies will be needed to prove that the tools are robust and that their estimates can be used in supporting treatment decisions, independent of BMD.

  3. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  4. African lessons on climate change risks for agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Christoph

    2013-01-01

    Climate change impact assessments on agriculture are subject to large uncertainties, as demonstrated in the present review of recent studies for Africa. There are multiple reasons for differences in projections, including uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions and patterns of climate change; assumptions on future management, aggregation, and spatial extent; and methodological differences. Still, all projections agree that climate change poses a significant risk to African agriculture. Most projections also see the possibility of increasing agricultural production under climate change, especially if suitable adaptation measures are assumed. Climate change is not the only projected pressure on African agriculture, which struggles to meet demand today and may need to feed an additional one billion individuals by 2050. Development strategies are urgently needed, but they will need to consider future climate change and its inherent uncertainties. Science needs to show how existing synergies between climate change adaptation and development can be exploited.

  5. Behavioral toxicology, risk assessment, and chlorinated hydrocarbons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evangelista de Duffard, A.M.; Duffard, R. [Laboratorio de Toxicologia Experimental, Santa Fe (Argentina)

    1996-04-01

    Behavioral end points are being used with greater frequency in neurotoxicology to detect and characterize the adverse effects of chemicals on the nervous system. Behavioral measures are particularly important for neurotoxicity risk assessment since many known neurotoxicants do not result in neuropathology. The chlorinated hydrocarbon class consists of a wide variety of chemicals including polychlorinated biphenyls, clioquinol, trichloroethylene, hexachlorophene, organochlorine insecticides (DDT, dicofol, chlordecone, dieldrin, and lindane), and phenoxyherbicides. Each of these chemicals has effects on motor, sensory, or cognitive function that are detectable using functional measures such as behavior. Furthermore, there is evidence that if exposure occurs during critical periods of development, many of the chlorinated hydrocarbons are developmental neurotoxicants. Developmental neurotoxicity is frequently expressed as alterations in motor function or cognitive abilities or charges in the ontogeny of sensorimotor reflexes. Neurotoxicity risk assessment should include assessments of the full range of possible neurotoxicological effects, including both structural and functional indicators of neurotoxicity. 121 refs., 1 tab.

  6. Climate change, land slide risks and sustainable development, risk analysis and decision support process tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Tremblay, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is in most parts of Sweden expected to result in increased precipitation and increased sea water levels causing flooding, erosion, slope instability and related secondary consequences. Landslide risks are expected to increase with climate change in large parts of Sweden due to increased annual precipitation, more intense precipitation and increased flows combined with dryer summers. In response to the potential climate related risks, and on the commission of the Ministry of Environment, the Swedish Geotechnical Institute (SGI) is at present performing a risk analysis project for the most prominent landslide risk area in Sweden: the Göta river valley. As part of this, a methodology for land slide ex-ante consequence analysis today, and in a future climate, has been developed and applied in the Göta river valley. Human life, settlements, industry, contaminated sites, infrastructure of national importance are invented and assessed important elements at risk. The goal of the consequence analysis is to produce a map of geographically distributed expected losses, which can be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability to describe the risk (the combination of probability and consequence of a (negative) event). The risk analysis is GIS-aided in presenting and visualise the risk and using existing databases for quantification of the consequences represented by ex-ante estimated monetary losses. The results will be used on national, regional and as an indication of the risk on local level, to assess the need of measures to mitigate the risk. The costs and environmental and social impacts to mitigate the risk are expected to be very high but the costs and impacts of a severe landslide are expected to be even higher. Therefore, civil servants have pronounced a need of tools to assess both the vulnerability and a more holistic picture of impacts of climate change adaptation measures. At SGI a tool for the inclusion of sustainability

  7. Remote sensing applications for assessing water-related risks and its interdependencies with land cover change and biodiversity in southern Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Mück, Matthias; Helmschrot, Jörg; Zimba, Henry; Wallner, Markus; Hipondoka, Martin; Nyambe, Imasiku Anayawa; Mufeti, Pauline; Meinhard, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Given the ongoing population growth and changes in land management as well as projected climate scenarios, a key challenge in the African sub-Saharan countries is to secure water at sufficient quality and quantity for both the stability of ecosystems, with their functions and services and for human use. Changing conditions will severely affect hydrological pattern in southern Africa, for example in terms of increasing flood frequencies and magnitudes or change in groundwater levels, whi...

  8. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  9. Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Louise Bagger; Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine; Prescott, Eva;

    2012-01-01

    the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants.......002) and younger women (P = 0.02). Persons with high vital exhaustion gained approximately 2 kg more during follow-up compared to those with no vital exhaustion. Women with high vital exhaustion were also more likely to become obese during follow-up (OR = 2.39; 95% CI: 1.14-5.03). There were no clear patterns...... in the associations between social network, economic hardship and weight gain or obesity. The number of psychosocial risk factors, as an indicator for clustering, was not associated with weight gain or obesity. In conclusion, major life events and vital exhaustion seem to play a role for weight gain and risk...

  10. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  11. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  12. Towards a nanospecific approach for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, Susan; Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Vandebriel, Rob J; Micheletti, Christian; Cabellos, Joan; Janer, Gemma; Fuentes, Natalia; Vázquez-Campos, Socorro; Borges, Teresa; Silva, Maria João; Prina-Mello, Adriele; Movia, Dania; Nesslany, Fabrice; Ribeiro, Ana R; Leite, Paulo Emílio; Groenewold, Monique; Cassee, Flemming R; Sips, Adrienne J A M; Dijkzeul, Aart; van Teunenbroek, Tom; Wijnhoven, Susan W P

    2016-10-01

    In the current paper, a new strategy for risk assessment of nanomaterials is described, which builds upon previous project outcomes and is developed within the FP7 NANoREG project. NANoREG has the aim to develop, for the long term, new testing strategies adapted to a high number of nanomaterials where many factors can affect their environmental and health impact. In the proposed risk assessment strategy, approaches for (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs), grouping and read-across are integrated and expanded to guide the user how to prioritise those nanomaterial applications that may lead to high risks for human health. Furthermore, those aspects of exposure, kinetics and hazard assessment that are most likely to be influenced by the nanospecific properties of the material under assessment are identified. These aspects are summarised in six elements, which play a key role in the strategy: exposure potential, dissolution, nanomaterial transformation, accumulation, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity. With the current approach it is possible to identify those situations where the use of nanospecific grouping, read-across and (Q)SAR tools is likely to become feasible in the future, and to point towards the generation of the type of data that is needed for scientific justification, which may lead to regulatory acceptance of nanospecific applications of these tools. PMID:27255696

  13. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  14. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  15. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  16. Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-Year Risk of Having a Heart Attack

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Education Programs Continuing Education Opportunities Health Observances Risk Assessment Tool for Estimating Your 10-year Risk of Having a Heart Attack The risk assessment tool below uses information from the Framingham Heart ...

  17. Modeling of Nitrogen Dynamics in an Austrian Alpine Forest Ecosystem on Calcareous Soils: A Scenario-Based Risk Assessment under Changing Environmental Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Friedl Herman; Stefan Smidt; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl; Michael Englisch; Ernst Gebetsroither; Robert Jandl; Klaus Katzensteiner; Manfred Lexer; Friederike Strebl; Sophie Zechmeister-Boltenstern

    2007-01-01

    We modeled the behavior of an Austrian alpine forest ecosystem on calcareous soils under changing climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition scenarios. The change of nitrate leaching, emission rates of nitrogen compounds, and forest productivity were calculated using four process-oriented models for the periods 1998–2002 and 2048–2052. Each model reflects with high detail a segment of the ecosystem: PnET-N-DNDC (photosynthesis-evapotranspiration-nitrification-denitrification-decomposition; s...

  18. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  19. Cardiovascular risk assessment in Italy: the CUORE Project risk score and risk chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Giampaoli

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available

    Aim: Risk charts and risk score, based on the global absolute risk, are key tools for CVD risk assessment. When applied to the population from which they derive, they provide the best estimate of CVD risk. That is why the CUORE Project has among its objectives the assessment of the Italian population’s cardiovascular risk, identifying the model for the prediction of coronary and cerebrovascular events in 10 years.

    Methods: Data fromdifferent cohorts enrolled in the North, Centre and South of Italy between the 1980s and the 1990s were used. From the 7,056 men and 12,574 women aged 35-69 years, free of cardiovascular disease at base-line and followed up for a mean time of 10 years for total and cause-specific mortality and non fatal cerebrovascular and coronary events, 894 major cardiovascular events (596 coronary and 298 cerebrovascular were identified and validated. To assess 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk score and risk chart were developed for men and women separately, considering the first major coronary or cerebrovascular event as the endpoint.

    Results: The risk score is applied tomen andwomen aged 35-69 years and includes age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, smoking habit, diabetes and hypertension treatment using continuous values when possible. The risk chart is applied to persons aged 40-69 years and includes the same risk factors as risk score, except for HDL-cholesterol and hypertension treatment, and uses categorical values for all variables.

    Conclusions: The risk score and risk chart are easy-to-use tools which enable general practitioners and specialists to achieve an objective evaluation of the absolute global cardiovascular risk of middle-aged persons in primary prevention.

  20. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  1. Cardiovascular risk assessment in women - an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, P; Webb, C M; de Villiers, T J; Stevenson, J C; Panay, N; Baber, R J

    2016-08-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in postmenopausal women. Although it is a disease of aging, vascular disease initiates much earlier in life. Thus, there is a need to be aware of the potential to prevent the development of the disease from an early age and continue this surveillance throughout life. The menopausal period and early menopause present an ideal opportunity to assess cardiovascular risk and plan accordingly. Generally in this period, women will be seen by primary health-care professionals and non-cardiovascular specialists. This review addresses female-specific risk factors that may contribute to the potential development of cardiovascular disease. It is important for all health-care professionals dealing with women in midlife and beyond to be cognisant of these risk factors and to initiate female-specific preventative measures or to refer to a cardiovascular specialist. PMID:27327421

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment of disassembly procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, D.A.; Bement, T.R.; Letellier, B.C.

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe the use of Probabilistic Risk (Safety) Assessment (PRA or PSA) at a Department of Energy (DOE) facility. PRA is a methodology for (i) identifying combinations of events that, if they occur, lead to accidents (ii) estimating the frequency of occurrence of each combination of events and (iii) estimating the consequences of each accident. Specifically the study focused on evaluating the risks associated with dissembling a hazardous assembly. The PRA for the operation included a detailed evaluation only for those potential accident sequences which could lead to significant off-site consequences and affect public health. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of establishing a risk-consequence goal for DOE operations.

  3. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  4. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ... Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals Related to Knowledge.'' The... an issue paper entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science...' knowledge about drugs' risks; (2) share current FDA experience regarding social science assessments...

  5. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  6. Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Southern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Lan Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters.

  7. Assessing Landslide Risk Areas Using Statistical Models and Land Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H. G.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Ahn, Y.; Sung, S.; Park, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, damages due to landslides have increased in Republic of Korea. Extreme weathers like typhoon, heavy rainfall related to climate change are the main factor of the damages. Especially, Inje-gun, Gangwon-do had severe landslide damages in 2006 and 2007. In Inje-gun, 91% areas are forest, therefore, many land covers related to human activities were adjacent to forest land. Thus, establishment of adaptation plans to landslides was urgently needed. Landslide risk assessment can serve as a good information to policy makers. The objective of this study was assessing landslide risk areas to support establishment of adaptation plans to reduce landslide damages. Statistical distribution models (SDMs) were used to evaluate probability of landslide occurrence. Various SDMs were used to make landslide probability maps considering uncertainty of SDMs. The types of land cover were classified into 5 grades considering vulnerable level to landslide. The landslide probability maps were overlaid with land cover map to calculate landslide risk. As a result of overlay analysis, landslide risk areas were derived. Especially agricultural areas and transportation areas showed high risk and large areas in the risk map. In conclusion, policy makers in Inje-gun must consider the landslide risk map to establish adaptation plans effectively.

  8. RISK ASSESSMENT ACTIVITIES IN COSO INTERNAL CONTROL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan TÜREDİ

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The companies pursue their goals and operate their activities in an environment full of risks and uncertainties. One of the major principles in accounting is that the companies to continue indefinitely, which is called “the going concern assumption”. Any company, surrounded by many risks must adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the business environment, realize and manage those risks and build some core competencies to continue as a going concern. COSO internal control, having practical application tools for companies is one of the generally accepted frameworks that aims enabling the companies to build, manage and develop an internal control structure as a tool to reach sustainable success. One of the five COSO components is “risk assessment” covering the recognition and assessment of the potential risks that the company faces and manage those risk considering their materiality. This study aims to explain the COSO internal control model with its five components as well as stressing the assessment of risks component supported by some examples.

  9. Moving Forward in Human Cancer Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Paules, Richard S.; Aubrecht, Jiri; Corvi, Raffaella; Garthoff, Bernward; Kleinjans, Jos C.

    2010-01-01

    Background The current safety paradigm for assessing carcinogenic properties of drugs, cosmetics, industrial chemicals, and environmental exposures relies mainly on in vitro genotoxicity testing followed by 2-year rodent bioassays. This testing battery is extremely sensitive but has low specificity. Furthermore, rodent bioassays are associated with high costs, high animal burden, and limited predictive value for human risks. Objectives We provide a response to a growing appeal for a paradigm ...

  10. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  11. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  12. Selection of Dispersivity in Groundwater Risk Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    武晓峰; 唐杰

    2004-01-01

    The Domenico model is used in combination with ASTM E 1739 in a Tier 2 risk assessment of chlorinated organic solvents contaminated groundwater sites to predict potential contaminant concentration in groundwater down-gradient from the point of exposure (POE). A knowledge of the dispersivity parameters is necessary for carrying out this calculation. A constant longitudinal dispersivity of 10 m is often used in analytical and numerical calculation. However, because of the scale effect of dispersion, two other main approaches are currently often used. From the viewpoint of conservative principle in risk assessment, it is necessary to determine which dispersivity data will give a higher predicted concentration, corresponding to a more conservative risk calculation. Generally, it is considered that a smaller dispersivity leads to a higher predicted concentration. This assumption is correct when dispersion is the only natural attenuation factor. However, degradation of commonly encountered chlorinated organic solvents in environment under natural condition has been widely reported. Calculations given in this paper of several representative cases show that a general consideration of the influence of dispersivity on concentration prediction is not always correct when a degradation term is included in the calculation. To give a conservative risk calculation, the scale effect of dispersion is considered. Calculations also show that the dispersivity parameters need to be determined by considering the POE distance from the source, the groundwater velocity, and the degradation rate of the contaminant.

  13. Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Can Elmar BALAS

    2003-01-01

    In the applications of reliability-based risk assessment methodology in Turkey, only wave characteristics, tidal range, storm surge, wave set-up, and structural system parameters were included in the past. Tsunami risk was not considered as a major design parameter and thus, was not included in the computation. After a strong earthquake (Mw=7.4) occurred near the town of Golcuk, Izmit Bay, Western Turkey at 00:01 GMT on August 17, 1999, chaotic water movements were observed on the coast of the Marmara Sea. Rubble mound breakwaters demonstrated very little damage, as predicted by the reliability-based risk assessment model developed in this study for the Tuzla Naval Base. For determination of the probability of occurrence under design conditions, which is a function of storm waves, tidal range, storm surge, and tsunami height, the Monte Carlo simulation was interrelated with the βⅡ method. For the Tuzla Naval Base main breakwater, tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves, however, in places with great seismic activity, tsunami risk can be significant depending on the probability of occurrence and the magnitude of the tsunami.

  14. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  15. The identity approach for assessing socio-technical resilience to climate change: example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.; Ashley, R.; Zevenbergen, C.

    2012-01-01

    Recent EU guidance on adaptation calls for the enhancement of socio-technical resilience to climate change. However, socio-technical resilience is relatively poorly defined and this makes it difficult to apply in practice. This paper uses the concept of identity as a vehicle to advance the definitio

  16. Assessing mixtures risks for cleanup and stewardship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for addressing contamination from past research, production, and disposal activities at over 100 sites and facilities across the country. Use of emerging science to assess risks for these facilities is the key to defining appropriate solutions. Safely managing contamination is a priority to protect workers in the near term, and sustained protection is a priority for local communities over the long term. The Department conducts its environmental management program with input from a number of groups who have expressed concern about the safety of DOE sites over time and the possible conversion of some lands to other uses. In general, past facility activities and disposal operations have contaminated about 10% of the total collective area of DOE sites while surrounding lands have served as buffer zones. Portions of several sites have been released for other uses, such as wildlife preserves. Soil, surface water, and groundwater have been contaminated in most instances, and on-site waste disposal is targeted for many sites. Wastes and contamination that will remain in the environment are at the heart of ongoing future use and long-term management deliberations. For this reason, oversight groups and local citizens are scrutinizing the risk assessments being conducted to support decisions on final cleanup and long-term stewardship. Contaminants exist throughout the world not as individual chemicals but as combinations. The standard risk assessment process broadly applied to support cleanup decisions for contaminated sites is based on single-chemical analyses that do not consider joint toxicity. That is, possible nonadditive effects (commonly termed synergistic or antagonistic) of multiple exposures to multiple chemicals are not generally addressed. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been developing a process to assess risks of multiple chemicals (EPA 1990, 2000), but it is not yet being applied to address

  17. Modeling of Nitrogen Dynamics in an Austrian Alpine Forest Ecosystem on Calcareous Soils: A Scenario-Based Risk Assessment under Changing Environmental Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friedl Herman

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We modeled the behavior of an Austrian alpine forest ecosystem on calcareous soils under changing climate and atmospheric nitrogen deposition scenarios. The change of nitrate leaching, emission rates of nitrogen compounds, and forest productivity were calculated using four process-oriented models for the periods 1998–2002 and 2048–2052. Each model reflects with high detail a segment of the ecosystem: PnET-N-DNDC (photosynthesis-evapotranspiration-nitrification-denitrification-decomposition; shortterm nitrogen cycling, BROOK90 (water balance for small and homogenous forest watersheds, HYDRUS (water flux in complex and heterogenous soils, and PICUS v1.3 (forest productivity. The nitrogen balance model (NBM combines the individual results into a comprehensive picture and extends the specific values beyond the limits of the individual models. The evaluation of the findings was outlined with TRACE, a model enabling a long-term prognosis of nitrogen cycling in annual time steps.

  18. Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

  19. Water risk assessment for river basins in China based on WWF water risk assessment tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, N.; Qiu, Y.; Gan, H.; Niu, C.; Liu, J.; Gan, Y.; Zhou, N.

    2014-09-01

    Water resource problems, one of the most important environmental and socio-economic issues, have been a common concern worldwide in recent years. Water resource risks are attracting more and more attention from the international community and national governments. Given the current situations of water resources and the water environment, and the characteristics of water resources management and information statistics of China, this paper establishes an index system for water risk assessment in river basins of China based on the index system of water risk assessment proposed by the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) and German Investment and Development Co., Ltd (DEG). The new system is more suitable for Chinese national conditions and endorses the international assessment index. A variety of factors are considered to determine the critical values of classification for each index, and the indexes are graded by means of 5-grade and 5-score scales; the weights and calculation methods of some indexes are adjusted, with the remaining indexes adopting the method of WWF. The Weighted Comprehensive Index Summation Process is adopted to calculate the integrated assessment score of the river basin. The method is applied to the Haihe River basin in China. The assessment shows that the method can accurately reflect the water risk level of different river basins. Finally, the paper discusses the continuing problems in water risk assessment and points out the research required to provide a reference for further study in this field.

  20. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  1. Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

    OpenAIRE

    Daanen, R.P.; Ingeman-Nielsen, T.; S. S. Marchenko; Romanovsky, V. E.; N. Foged; Stendel, M.; J.H. Christensen; K. Hornbech Svensen

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is detrimental to permafrost and related processes, from hydrological and ecological to societal. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modeled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections till 2075. In this paper we developed the Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP). This is the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP was used in a simple risk assessment procedure usefull for enginee...

  2. Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

  3. Study on the mechanism for radiation/chemical substance-induced cellular damages and development of its risk assessment. Changes in telomere and telomerase in genetically modified animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the previous study, a highly sensitive system for determination of telomere length and telomerase assay was established. In this study, changes in the telomerase activity and the length of telomere followingγ-ray exposure were investigated and their correlation with deletion of p53 gene was examined using p53 knockout mice, of which carcinogenic sensitivity was very high. Early damages caused by radiation exposure generally appeared in the hematopoietic cells, the peripheral lymphocytes and bone marrow cells. The telomerase activity of peripheral lymphocytes was dose-dependently decreased in either of p53 +/+ or p53 -/-mouse, but the activities of exposed group and not-exposed reached almost the same level after 19 days in either of p53 +/+ and p53 -/- mouse. Whereas the length of the telomere was not affected by γ-ray exposure at 500 cGy. The number of colony for p53 wild type cell culture was decreased to several percent, l 5 days after the exposure and it recovered on day 20. Whereas there was no apparent changes in the colony number of p53 -/-. The telomerase activity was lower in the order of p53 +/+, p53 +/-, p53 -/- mouse, indicating that the activity level was dependent on the presence of p53 gene. Therefore, it is likely that the activity of telomerase is controlled by p53 gene. (M.N.)

  4. Changes in the prevalence of avian disease and mosquito vectors at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge: a 14-year perspective and assessment of future risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaPointe, Dennis; Gaudioso-Levita, Jacqueline M.; Atkinson, Carter T.; Egan, Ariel N.; Hayes, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    Throughout the main Hawaiian Islands, introduced mosquito-borne disease has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on the distributions and abundance of native Hawaiian forest birds. Populations of remaining native forest birds are largely restricted to high elevation forests where mean temperatures are marginal for vector and parasite development and limited availability of larval mosquito habitat constrains mosquito populations and disease transmission. Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (HFNWR) was established for the preservation of endemic avifauna in 1985. Since its creation, native bird communities there have remained intact and most species populations are stable or increasing. However, avian malaria had been detected at HFNWR in the past and, in light of documented climate change, new concerns have been raised regarding the long-term fate of the refuge’s forest birds. To examine the possible changes in avian malaria transmission at HFNWR we sampled forest birds for blood parasites, trapped adult mosquitoes and surveyed larval mosquito habitat at three sites during 2012 and compared our results with similar data collected between 1998 and 1999. We tested blood samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), immunoblotting, and microscopy to determine prevalence of acute and chronic infection and used attractive gravid traps to sample the vector mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus.

  5. Extreme Weather Risk Assessment: The Case of Jiquilisco, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Karla; Ceppi, Claudia; Molero, Juanjo; Rios Insua, David

    2014-05-01

    All major climate models predict increases in both global and regional mean temperatures throughout this century, under different scenarios concerning future trends in population growth or economic and technological development. This consistency of results across models has strengthened the evidence about global warming. Despite the convincing facts and findings of climate researchers, there is still a great deal of skepticism around climate change. There is somewhat less consensus about some of the consequences of climate change, for example in reference to extreme weather changes, in particular as regards more local scales. However, such changes seem to have already considerable impact in many regions across the world in terms of lives, economic losses, and required changes in lifestyles. This may demand appropriate policy responses both at national and local levels. Our work provides a framework for extreme weather multithreat risk management, based on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). This may be useful in comparing the effectiveness of different actions to manage risks and inform judgment concerning the appropriate resource allocation to mitigate the risks. The methodology has been applied to the case study of the "El Marillo II" community, located in the municipality of Jiquilisco in El Salvador. There, the main problem related with extreme weather conditions are the frequent floods caused by rainfall, hurricanes , and water increases in the Lempa river nearby located. However, droughts are also very relevant. Based on several sources like SNET, newspapers, field visits to the region and interviews, we have built a detailed database that comprises extreme weather daily data from January 1971 until December 2011. Forecasting models for floods and droughts were built suggesting the need to properly manage the risks. We subsequently obtained the optimal portfolio of countermeasures, given the budget constraints. KEYWORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME WEATHER, RISK

  6. Quantitative risk assessment of durable glass fibers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayerweather, William E; Eastes, Walter; Cereghini, Francesco; Hadley, John G

    2002-06-01

    This article presents a quantitative risk assessment for the theoretical lifetime cancer risk from the manufacture and use of relatively durable synthetic glass fibers. More specifically, we estimate levels of exposure to respirable fibers or fiberlike structures of E-glass and C-glass that, assuming a working lifetime exposure, pose a theoretical lifetime cancer risk of not more than 1 per 100,000. For comparability with other risk assessments we define these levels as nonsignificant exposures. Nonsignificant exposure levels are estimated from (a) the Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) chronic rat inhalation bioassay of durable E-glass microfibers, and (b) the Research Consulting Company (RCC) chronic inhalation bioassay of durable refractory ceramic fibers (RCF). Best estimates of nonsignificant E-glass exposure exceed 0.05-0.13 fibers (or shards) per cubic centimeter (cm3) when calculated from the multistage nonthreshold model. Best estimates of nonsignificant C-glass exposure exceed 0.27-0.6 fibers/cm3. Estimates of nonsignificant exposure increase markedly for E- and C-glass when non-linear models are applied and rapidly exceed 1 fiber/cm3. Controlling durable fiber exposures to an 8-h time-weighted average of 0.05 fibers/cm3 will assure that the additional theoretical lifetime risk from working lifetime exposures to these durable fibers or shards is kept below the 1 per 100,000 level. Measured airborne exposures to respirable, durable glass fibers (or shards) in glass fiber manufacturing and fabrication operations were compared with the nonsignificant exposure estimates described. Sampling results for B-sized respirable E-glass fibers at facilities that manufacture or fabricate small-diameter continuous-filament products, from those that manufacture respirable E-glass shards from PERG (process to efficiently recycle glass), from milled fiber operations, and from respirable C-glass shards from Flakeglass operations indicate very low median exposures of 0

  7. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  8. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity. PMID:21384330

  9. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  10. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  11. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  12. Hydrologic Extremes and Risk Assessment under Non-stationarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, A.

    2015-12-01

    In the context of hydrologic designs, robust assessment and communication of risk is crucial to ascertain a sustainable water future. Traditional methods for defining return period, risk or reliability assumes a stationary regime which may no longer be valid because of natural or man-made changes. Reformulations are suggested in recent literature to account for non-stationarity in the definition of hydrologic risk, as time evolves. This study presents a comparative analysis of design levels under non-stationarity based on time varying annual exceedance probabilities, waiting time of a hazardous event, number of hazardous events and probability of failure. A case study application is shown for peak streamflow in the flood-prone delta area of the Krishna River in India where an increasing trend in annual maximum flows are observed owing to persistent silting. Considerable disagreement is found between the design magnitudes of flood obtained by the different definitions of hydrologic risk. Such risk is also found to be highly sensitive to the assumed design life period and projections of trend in that period or beyond. Additionally, some critical points on the assumption of a deterministic non-stationary model for an observed natural process are also discussed. The findings highlight the necessity for a unifying framework for assessment and communication of hydrologic risk under transient hydro-climatic conditions. The concepts can also be extended to other applications such as regional hydrologic frequency analysis or development of precipitation intensity-duration-frequency relationships for infrastructure design.

  13. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    to March) precipitation, the number of days with maximum temperature between 24°C and 28°C and the number of days of May with minimum temperature below 0°C is able to model the chestnut productivity with r2 equal to 0.79. It should be pointed out that the relation between weather/climate and chestnut productivity may change over time. Finally, it is important to express objectively the effects of temperature and precipitation extremes on the chestnut productivity since temperature is one of the global circulation models predicted variables with less uncertainty. With these tools will be possible to assess the weather related risk on chestnut production as well as infer about evolution of the adequate conditions to the chestnut trees in the actual plantations and about the expansion of this specie. Bounous, G. (2002) "Il castagno" [Chestnut.] - Edagricole, Bologna. [In Ital.] Gomes-Laranjo, J., Coutinho, J.P., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Pimentel-Pereira, M., Ramos, C., Torres-Pereira, J.(2005) "Assessment to a new concept of chestnut orchard management in vegetative wall.". Acta Hort. 693: 707-712. Gomes-Laranjo, J.C.E., Peixoto, F., Wong Fong Sang, H.W., Torres-Pereira, J.M.G.(2006) "Study of the temperature effect in three chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivars' behavior". J. Plant Physiol. 163: 945-955.

  14. Land use change and soil loss risk assessment by using geographical information system (GIS): A case study of lower part of Perak River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Yusof, Fasihah; Rohaizah Jamil, Nor; Inthano a/p Cha Laew, Nyvee; Aini, Norfadilah; Abd Manaf, Latifah

    2016-06-01

    The developing mode of the nation enhance more land area being exploited to generate economy income. Objectives of this study were to analyse the land use changes from year 2010 to 2013 and soil erosion potential rate for year 2013 of lower part of Perak river basin. All of the spatial analysis work were carried out in the GIS environment using the ArcGIS version 9.3 software. Land use maps were obtained from Department of Agriculture and been digitized accordingly. The total area was 2914.91 km2 and land use categories were clustered into various classes. Based on land use change analysis, oil palm plantation recorded some increment from year 2010 to 2013. While, area of forest depleting from 95.54km2 to 86.01 km2 indicating that the forest area were being exploited and shifted to other land use type. In the other hand, the rubber plantation decrease due to land conversion into palm oil plantation. Urban area showed some increment in coverage proving the current blooming number of population occurs rapidly. In context of cleared land, 2013 recorded higher coverage of cleared land compared to the year 2010 which recorded a shifting from 8.89km2 in 2010 to 21.24 km2 in 2013. By adopting the RUSLE model, in 2013, the soil erosion potential was categorised as very low (0-1 tons/ha/year) with some soil erosion hotspot spotted within the study area. The soil erosion range from very low to extreme class. A very low soil erosion potential class (0-1 ton/ha/yr) recorded the majority of 61% (1765.60 km2) of total area. The extreme classes (>100 ton/ha/yr) recorded about 18% (536.19km2) of the total area. According to the result, it can be concluded that the middle part of study area experience low to severe classes of potential soil erosion.

  15. Controlling risk in a changing environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Competitive pressures in the electric utility industry today demand an unprecedented focus on improving efficiency and cost effectiveness. Work processes and practices that, in some cases, have been in place for years are now being examined and changed in attempts to achieve better results. When such changes are made in nuclear plant work processes, however, the resulting impact on nuclear risk is a potential concern. Two types of risk must be considered: (a) the direct impact of new processes that might inadvertently introduce new safety concerns and (b) the indirect effects on safety due to worker morale and motivation. Work processes and practices at the GPU nuclear stations at Oyster Creek and Three Mile Island (TMI) were developed and put in place in the period following the TMI-2 accident. During this period, great emphasis was placed on installing work processes that attempted to avoid errors through a multiplicity of checks and overchecks. During 1991, GPUN senior management initiated a substantial effort to achieve major improvements in efficiency and effectiveness of key work processes, while maintaining and even enhancing nuclear safety

  16. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  17. Climate change : we are at risk : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the period November 2002 to May 2003, the effects of climate change on Canada's agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities were investigated by the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm were reviewed, along with the forest fires in Western Canada during the summer of 2003 and the unusual succession of dry years. This paper includes a discussion on climate change, agriculture, forests, water, rural communities, Aboriginal people, and potential adaptation options. Seven recommendations were made: (1) climate change impacts and adaptation efforts should be coordinated by the Government of Canada, (2) substantial increase in funding and allocation of resources for climate change impacts and adaptation research is required, (3) make water research a national priority, with emphasis on water supply and demand, (4) expand and increase the role and resources of the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), (5) develop and quickly implement an education and communication strategy concerning risks and challenges associated with climate change and its impacts on agriculture and forests, (6) develop a long term safety net to allow farmers the opportunity to take advantage of possible opportunities resulting from climate change, and (7) implement a systematic review of existing and new programs and policies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. refs., figs

  18. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  19. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    OpenAIRE

    Lachlan McIver; Alistair Woodward; Seren Davies; Tebikau Tibwe; Steven Iddings

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest prior...

  20. Risk Assessment in Advanced Engineering Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Holický

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional methods for designing of civil engineering structures and other engineering systems are frequently based on the concept of target probability of failure. However, this fundamental quantity is usually specified on the basis of comparative studies and past experience only. Moreover, probabilistic design methods suffer from several deficiencies, including lack of consideration for accidental and other hazard situations and their consequences. Both of these extreme conditions are more and more frequently becoming causes of serious failures and other adverse events. Available experience clearly indicates that probabilistic design procedures may be efficiently supplemented by a risk analysis and assessment, which can take into account various consequences of unfavourable events. It is therefore anticipated that in addition to traditional probabilistic concepts the methods of advanced engineering design will also commonly include criteria for acceptable risks.

  1. MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF MARKETING RISKS IN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Solntsev Serhiy O.; Ovchynnikova Anna V.

    2013-01-01

    The goal of the article is the study of theoretical and methodical grounds of assessing marketing risks when realising investment projects for increase of efficiency of making managerial decisions and minimisation of the level of marketing risks. In the result of the study the article offers to allocate the stage of assessment in the process of management, consisting of detection, analysis and assessment of marketing risks. Structurisation of methods of assessment of marketing risks allowed s...

  2. 77 FR 28406 - Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    ... COMMISSION Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft... issuing for public comment a draft NUREG, NUREG-2125, ``Spent Fuel Transportation Risk Assessment (SFTRA... safety assurance. In that assessment, the measure of safety was the risk of radiation doses to the...

  3. 28 CFR 105.14 - Risk assessment for candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... or national security as a result of the preliminary risk assessment, the candidate or the Provider... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Risk assessment for candidates. 105.14... CHECKS Aviation Training for Aliens and Other Designated Individuals § 105.14 Risk assessment...

  4. Benefit - Risk Assessment of Vitamin D Supplementation

    OpenAIRE

    BISCHOFF-FERRARI, H.A.; Dawson-Hughes, B; Shao, A; HATHCOCK, J.; Giovannucci, E; Willett, W. C.

    2009-01-01

    Current intake recommendations of 200 to 600 IU vitamin D per day may be insufficient for important disease outcomes reduced by vitamin D. INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the benefit of higher-dose and higher achieved 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels [25(OH)D] versus any associated risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on double-blind randomized control trials (RCTs), eight for falls (n = 2426) and 12 for non-vertebral fractures (n = 42,279), there was a significant dose-response relationship between ...

  5. Risk assessment and risk management for safe foods: Assessment needs inclusion of variability and uncertainty, management needs discrete decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwietering, M H

    2015-11-20

    The introduction of relevant food safety changes in legislation, like time-temperature criteria for pasteurisation and sterilisation, microbiological criteria, HACCP and FSOs, generally took several decades. All these approaches have helped to define specific targets or systems to improve the management of food safety. More and more the measures could be related to specific efficiency in public health protection. With the use of quantitative risk assessment, theoretically the effect of all interventions on the final risk can be determined, which can help to design the appropriate controls in the food safety management system. In such an assessment in practice, however results have understandably large variability and also uncertainty. There is large variability and uncertainty in the biological parts of the assessment, the dose response (infectivity, human susceptibility) the micro-organism kinetics in the chain (growth, inactivation, stress response) and also in the more technological parts, the conditions in the chain and the consumer behaviour. Often the results of risk assessments are probability distributions of the variability in illness probability, also sometimes represented with their uncertainty. To make a link from these distributions to managerial decisions, that need to be black and white, should not be considered the job of risk managers. This link needs investment from both the assessor and the manager.

  6. Risk assessment and risk management for safe foods: Assessment needs inclusion of variability and uncertainty, management needs discrete decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwietering, M H

    2015-11-20

    The introduction of relevant food safety changes in legislation, like time-temperature criteria for pasteurisation and sterilisation, microbiological criteria, HACCP and FSOs, generally took several decades. All these approaches have helped to define specific targets or systems to improve the management of food safety. More and more the measures could be related to specific efficiency in public health protection. With the use of quantitative risk assessment, theoretically the effect of all interventions on the final risk can be determined, which can help to design the appropriate controls in the food safety management system. In such an assessment in practice, however results have understandably large variability and also uncertainty. There is large variability and uncertainty in the biological parts of the assessment, the dose response (infectivity, human susceptibility) the micro-organism kinetics in the chain (growth, inactivation, stress response) and also in the more technological parts, the conditions in the chain and the consumer behaviour. Often the results of risk assessments are probability distributions of the variability in illness probability, also sometimes represented with their uncertainty. To make a link from these distributions to managerial decisions, that need to be black and white, should not be considered the job of risk managers. This link needs investment from both the assessor and the manager. PMID:25890788

  7. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  8. Applying a weed risk assessment approach to GM crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keese, Paul K; Robold, Andrea V; Myers, Ruth C; Weisman, Sarah; Smith, Joe

    2014-12-01

    Current approaches to environmental risk assessment of genetically modified (GM) plants are modelled on chemical risk assessment methods, which have a strong focus on toxicity. There are additional types of harms posed by plants that have been extensively studied by weed scientists and incorporated into weed risk assessment methods. Weed risk assessment uses robust, validated methods that are widely applied to regulatory decision-making about potentially problematic plants. They are designed to encompass a broad variety of plant forms and traits in different environments, and can provide reliable conclusions even with limited data. The knowledge and experience that underpin weed risk assessment can be harnessed for environmental risk assessment of GM plants. A case study illustrates the application of the Australian post-border weed risk assessment approach to a representative GM plant. This approach is a valuable tool to identify potential risks from GM plants.

  9. Epigenetic Changes in Diabetes and Cardiovascular Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Samuel T; Plutzky, Jorge; El-Osta, Assam

    2016-05-27

    Cardiovascular complications remain the leading causes of morbidity and premature mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. Studies in humans and preclinical models demonstrate lasting gene expression changes in the vasculopathies initiated by previous exposure to high glucose concentrations and the associated overproduction of reactive oxygen species. The molecular signatures of chromatin architectures that sensitize the genome to these and other cardiometabolic risk factors of the diabetic milieu are increasingly implicated in the biological memory underlying cardiovascular complications and now widely considered as promising therapeutic targets. Atherosclerosis is a complex heterocellular disease where the contributing cell types possess distinct epigenomes shaping diverse gene expression. Although the extent that pathological chromatin changes can be manipulated in human cardiovascular disease remains to be established, the clinical applicability of epigenetic interventions will be greatly advanced by a deeper understanding of the cell type-specific roles played by writers, erasers, and readers of chromatin modifications in the diabetic vasculature. This review details a current perspective of epigenetic mechanisms of macrovascular disease in diabetes mellitus and highlights recent key descriptions of chromatinized changes associated with persistent gene expression in endothelial, smooth muscle, and circulating immune cells relevant to atherosclerosis. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges associated with pharmacological targeting of epigenetic networks to correct abnormal or deregulated gene expression as a strategy to alleviate the clinical burden of diabetic cardiovascular disease. PMID:27230637

  10. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  11. Listeria monocytogenes in Retail Delicatessens: An Interagency Risk Assessment-Risk Mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel; Pouillot, Régis; Hoelzer, Karin; Tang, Jia; Dennis, Sherri B; Kause, Janell R

    2016-07-01

    Cross-contamination, improper holding temperatures, and insufficient sanitary practices are known retail practices that may lead to product contamination and growth of Listeria monocytogenes. However, the relative importance of control options to mitigate the risk of invasive listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) products sliced or prepared at retail is not well understood. This study illustrates the utility of a quantitative risk assessment model described in a first article of this series (Pouillot, R., D. Gallagher, J. Tang, K. Hoelzer, J. Kause, and S. B. Dennis, J. Food Prot. 78:134-145, 2015) to evaluate the public health impact associated with changes in retail deli practices and interventions. Twenty-two mitigation scenarios were modeled and evaluated under six different baseline conditions. These scenarios were related to sanitation, worker behavior, use of growth inhibitors, cross-contamination, storage temperature control, and reduction of the level of L. monocytogenes on incoming RTE food products. The mean risk per serving of RTE products obtained under these scenarios was then compared with the risk estimated in the baseline condition. Some risk mitigations had a consistent impact on the predicted listeriosis risk in all baseline conditions (e.g. presence or absence of growth inhibitor), whereas others were greatly dependent on the initial baseline conditions or practices in the deli (e.g. preslicing of products). Overall, the control of the bacterial growth and the control of contamination at its source were major factors of listeriosis risk in these settings. Although control of cross-contamination and continued sanitation were also important, the decrease in the predicted risk was not amenable to a simple solution. Findings from these predictive scenario analyses are intended to encourage improvements to retail food safety practices and mitigation strategies to control L. monocytogenes in RTE foods more effectively and to demonstrate the utility of

  12. Organizational change. Success factors and risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    practice iterative, they will be repeated when formulating stepwise goals, making action plans implementing, monitoring and reflecting over what has been achieved. This will develop organizational change competence. The phases are over-lapping. Not only one, but several processes are going on in different phases. The on-going change processes have to be coordinated and synchronized. The safety issues cannot be separated from other organizational issues. All organizational changes have to be synchronized. Issues of competence and staffing have to be continuously analyzed. The motivation of the staff will be effected in the beginning of a change process. Participation is a key to success. The work organization must be continuously developed. 'Just in time'- thinking can be in conflict with 'just in case'- thinking in high-risk environments. Under manning. Temporary staff. Outsourcing. A recommended way of preparing for change is to engage all the staff in the development of a company strategy for change

  13. Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    ARIAS CARBALLO, DIEGO; Laura, dos Reis

    2013-01-01

    A rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment, recently developed by the World Bank, constitutes a useful tool for a system-wide approach to identify risks, risk exposure, the severity of potential loses, and options for risk management either by supply chain participants (individually or collectively) or by third parties (government). Supply chain risk management is the systematic pro...

  14. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  15. Built cultural heritage facing climate change risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The built cultural heritage would face important risks in the frame of climate change. They are well identified by the major international organizations, but only in a qualitative manner, and mainly refer on the action of water or on its absence. The most active research is supported by the European Commission. The results obtained by the European project 'Noah's Ark' are the most important at the day. Dose-Response Functions with predictive climate models are used to produce vulnerability maps at a European scale of which one example is presented. The recommendations of the Council of Europe for policy makers and researchers are developed as a conclusion. Three case studies are synthesized in annex of this article: Venice, London and Paris. (authors)

  16. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  17. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  18. Risk Assessment Model for Mobile Malware

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Stanescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The mobile technology is considered to be the fastest-developing IT security area. Only in the last year security threats around mobile devices have reached new heights in terms of both quality and quantity. The speed of this development has made possible several types of security attacks that, until recently, were only possible on computers. In terms of the most targeted mobile operating systems, Android continues to be the most vulnerable, although new ways of strengthening its security model were introduced by Google. The aim of this article is to provide a model for assessing the risk of mobile infection with malware, starting from a statistical analysis of the permissions required by each application installed into the mobile system. The software implementation of this model will use the Android operating system and in order to do so, we will start by analyzing its permission-based security architecture. Furthermore, based on statistical data regarding the most dangerous permissions, we build the risk assessment model and, to prove its efficiency, we scan some of the most popular apps and interpret the results. To this end, we offer an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of this permission-based model and we also state a short conclusion regarding model’s efficiency.

  19. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  20. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  1. Risk Management Assessment Systems: An Application to Islamic Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Habib

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is central in operations of financial institutions, both from business and regulatory perspectives. Risk management is not only about identifying and mitigating risks, but involves a strong risk management system that includes establishing appropriate risk management environment, maintaining an appropriate risk management process, and instituting adequate internal controls. This paper provides a measurable tool to assess the risk management framework in Islamic banks. The stru...

  2. Assessment and insurance risk of foreign economic activity: accounting aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Susyuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on research approaches to risk positioning grounded classification of risks arising in foreign trade activity. Deals with issues of assessment and insurance risks expediency display your losses from them. To reduce the negative impact of risks the theoretical foundations of security and practical advice with his reflection in the system of accounts. Grounded algorithm to select the most suitable method of risk assessment and constructed flowchart automation choice method for assessing the risk of foreign trade. The expediency of development of self-insurance risks of foreign economic activity.

  3. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  4. Ocean acidification risk assessment for Alaska's fishery sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, J. T.; Cooley, S. R.; Lucey, N.; Colt, S.; Ekstrom, J.; Hurst, T.; Hauri, C.; Evans, W.; Cross, J. N.; Feely, R. A.

    2015-08-01

    The highly productive fisheries of Alaska are located in seas projected to experience strong global change, including rapid transitions in temperature and ocean acidification-driven changes in pH and other chemical parameters. Many of the marine organisms that are most intensely affected by ocean acidification (OA) contribute substantially to the state's commercial fisheries and traditional subsistence way of life. Prior studies of OA's potential impacts on human communities have focused only on possible direct economic losses from specific scenarios of human dependence on commercial harvests and damages to marine species. However, other economic and social impacts, such as changes in food security or livelihoods, are also likely to result from climate change. This study evaluates patterns of dependence on marine resources within Alaska that could be negatively impacted by OA and current community characteristics to assess the potential risk to the fishery sector from OA. Here, we used a risk assessment framework based on one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to analyze earth-system global ocean model hindcasts and projections of ocean chemistry, fisheries harvest data, and demographic information. The fisheries examined were: shellfish, salmon and other finfish. The final index incorporates all of these data to compare overall risk among Alaska's federally designated census areas. The analysis showed that regions in southeast and southwest Alaska that are highly reliant on fishery harvests and have relatively lower incomes and employment alternatives likely face the highest risk from OA. Although this study is an intermediate step toward our full understanding, the results presented here show that OA merits consideration in policy planning, as it may represent another challenge to Alaskan communities, some of which are already under acute socio-economic strains.

  5. Imagining flood futures: risk assessment and management in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Stuart N; Landström, Catharina; Whatmore, Sarah J

    2011-05-13

    The mantra that policy and management should be 'evidence-based' is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from 'evidence' being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between 'evidence', reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through 'suites of practices' entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the 'pseudosciences', they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences

  6. Providing rapid climate risk assessments to support cities (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Horton, R. M.; Bader, D.; Ali, S.

    2013-12-01

    Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast of the United States on October 29, 2012 and brought the issue of urban resilience to the forefront of public discussion not only in New York City, but in cities around the world. While Hurricane Sandy as an individual extreme climate event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve as a warning for cities regarding disaster risks, focus attention on the importance of reducing climate vulnerability, and the need to include increasing climate risks and resilience into rebuilding programs. As severe as Sandy was, the the storm could have been much worse. The science behind potential impacts was ';in place' and ';in time,' i.e., climate risks were well understood before the storm, due to work by scientists in the region starting in the late 1990s. In the wake of this transformative storm, the rebuilding process in New York is being informed by the potential for a changing climate. The $20 billion Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) Plan for New York is grounded upon climate risk information provided by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). This expert panel, tasked with advising on the City on climate-related issues, completed a 'rapid response' climate assessment with updated climate projections and coastal flood maps. Cities are emerging as the ';first responders' to climate change in both adaptation and mitigation. Their efforts are playing a role in catalyzing national and international responses as well. New York City's actions in the wake of Hurricane Sandy are an example of a positive tipping-point response. The Urban Climate Change Research Network, a consortium of over 450 scholars and practitioners in developing and developed country cities around the world, was established in 2007 to enhance science-based decision-making on climate and other sustainability related issues in urban areas around the world. The UCCRN's first major publication is the First UCCRN Assessment Report on

  7. Climate Change and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Kelman, I.

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews climate change within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR), analyzing how climate change is mentioned in the framework’s text and the potential implications for dealing with climate change within the context of disaster risk reduction. Three main categories are examined. First, climate change affecting disaster risk and disasters, demonstrating too much emphasis on the single hazard driver and diminisher of climate change. Second, cross-secto...

  8. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  9. [International trend of guidance for nanomaterial risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Akihiko

    2013-01-01

    In the past few years, several kinds of opinions or recommendations on the nanomaterial safety assessment have been published from international or national bodies. Among the reports, the first practical guidance of risk assessment from the regulatory body was published from the European Food Safety Authorities in May 2011, which included the determination of exposure scenario and toxicity testing strategy. In October 2011, European Commission (EC) adopted the definition of "nanomaterial" for regulation. And more recently, Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety of EC released guidance for assessment of nanomaterials in cosmetics in June 2012. A series of activities in EU marks an important step towards realistic safety assessment of nanomaterials. On the other hand, the US FDA announced a draft guidance for industry in June 2011, and then published draft guidance documents for both "Cosmetic Products" and "Food Ingredients and Food Contact Substances" in April 2012. These draft documents do not restrictedly define the physical properties of nanomaterials, but when manufacturing changes alter the dimensions, properties, or effects of an FDA-regulated product, the products are treated as new products. Such international movements indicate that most of nanomaterials with any new properties would be assessed or regulated as new products by most of national authorities in near future, although the approaches are still case by case basis. We will introduce such current international activities and consideration points for regulatory risk assessment.

  10. The role of phenology in assessing risks of frost damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzel, Annette; Estrella, Nicole

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming in temperate regions has been shown to lengthen the summer growing season, both at the spring and autumn side, and shorten the winter season. Spring phenology, e.g. bud burst and leafing, is mainly triggered by forcing temperatures in order to maximize growing season during favorable conditions. Winter chilling and / or photoperiodic requirements prevent too early plant development related to a higher risk of damage by late spring frosts. The questions how risks of late spring frosts have been altered in the past and will change under future warming are discussed controversially in the current literature. In this paper we will take this classical example of vegetation - atmosphere interaction to demonstrate that traits of the species studied, the (partially) neglected status of the vegetation and regional climatic conditions may account for these differences reported. We suggest a methodology based on extreme value theory (EVT) to assess the frost risks and present results for continental Europe.

  11. Current directions in screening-level ecological risk assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsen, T M; Efroymson, R A

    2000-12-11

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a tool used by many regulatory agencies to evaluate the impact to ecological receptors from changes in environmental conditions. Widespread use of ERAs began with the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Superfund program to assess the ecological impact from hazardous chemicals released to the environment. Many state hazardous chemical regulatory agencies have adopted the use of ERAs, and several state regulatory agencies are evaluating the use of ERAs to assess ecological impacts from releases of petroleum and gas-related products. Typical ERAs are toxicologically-based, use conservative assumptions with respect to ecological receptor exposure duration and frequency, often require complex modeling of transport and exposure and are very labor intensive. In an effort to streamline the ERA process, efforts are currently underway to develop default soil screening levels, to identify ecological screening criteria for excluding sites from formal risk assessment, and to create risk-based corrective action worksheets. This should help reduce the time spent on ERAs, at least for some sites. Work is also underway to incorporate bioavailability and spatial considerations into ERAs. By evaluating the spatial nature of contaminant releases with respect to the spatial context of the ecosystem under consideration, more realistic ERAs with respect to the actual impact to ecological receptors at the population, community or ecosystem scale should be possible. In addition, by considering the spatial context, it should be possible to develop mitigation and monitoring efforts to more appropriately address such sites within the context of an ecological framework.

  12. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  13. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  14. 78 FR 36787 - Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-19

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Rechanneling the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia... the Current Cardiac Risk Paradigm: Arrhythmia Risk Assessment During Drug Development Without...

  15. Risk, innovation and change : design propositions for implementing risk management in organizations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staveren, van Martinus Theodorus

    2009-01-01

    This Ph.D. research generated unique design propositions for implementing existing risk management methodologies in organizations. The resulting design propositions incorporate a synthesis of risk management, innovation management and change management. True implementation of risk management is defi

  16. How to assess your green fraud risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-02-15

    Pressure to conform to a sustainability agenda is coming from customers, investors, employees, industry bodies and the media. This agenda is evolving into a critical part of an organisation's business model, and their relationships, opening up new market opportunities and supporting cost efficiencies. But all changes in business activities also raise the risk of fraud and abuse. Sustainability is no exception. The potential for fraud tends to be greater in new markets, when information is imperfect, standards of measurement and verification are not harmonised and governance is weak. The sustainability marketplace, taken as a whole, is all of these things. To a large extent, the types of fraud appearing are not new. They represent the application of tried and tested fraudulent practices to the sustainability arena. A comprehensive and robust design, rather than an ad hoc, piecemeal approach, is essential for a successful sustainability strategy. An awareness of the risk of potential fraud and the need to incorporate measures to protect against it are part of that process. Sustainable business practices, including a company's mitigation and carbon markets activities, are disclosed as either financial or non-financial data. In this paper, PwC examines some of the green fraud risks that companies face when engaged in such activities and the steps they can take to mitigate or eliminate them.

  17. How to assess your green fraud risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pressure to conform to a sustainability agenda is coming from customers, investors, employees, industry bodies and the media. This agenda is evolving into a critical part of an organisation's business model, and their relationships, opening up new market opportunities and supporting cost efficiencies. But all changes in business activities also raise the risk of fraud and abuse. Sustainability is no exception. The potential for fraud tends to be greater in new markets, when information is imperfect, standards of measurement and verification are not harmonised and governance is weak. The sustainability marketplace, taken as a whole, is all of these things. To a large extent, the types of fraud appearing are not new. They represent the application of tried and tested fraudulent practices to the sustainability arena. A comprehensive and robust design, rather than an ad hoc, piecemeal approach, is essential for a successful sustainability strategy. An awareness of the risk of potential fraud and the need to incorporate measures to protect against it are part of that process. Sustainable business practices, including a company's mitigation and carbon markets activities, are disclosed as either financial or non-financial data. In this paper, PwC examines some of the green fraud risks that companies face when engaged in such activities and the steps they can take to mitigate or eliminate them.

  18. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-01-01

    Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process a...

  19. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  20. Risk-Assessment for Equipment Operating on the Lunar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, R. C.; Kusiak, A.; Ramachandran, N.

    2008-01-01

    Particle-size distribution of lunar dust simulant is evaluated using scanning electron spectroscopy in order to consider approaches to evaluating risk to individual mechanical components operating on the lunar surface. Assessing component risk and risk-mitigation during actual operations will require noninvasive continuous data gathering on numerous parameters. Those data sets would best be evaluated using data-mining algorithms to assess risk, and recovery from risk, of individual mechanical components in real-time.

  1. Microbiological risk assessment for safe food design & management

    OpenAIRE

    Vásquez, Andrés; Busschaert, Pieter; Geeraerd, Annemie

    2010-01-01

    An important element of microbiological risk analysis, is risk assessment; a process in which the dynamics of microbiological hazards in the food chain are identified and characterized, and the exposure of consumers to the particular hazards is estimated. The current focus of microbiological risk assessment studies is “how it can best be utilized in food safety management to understand the magnitude of prevailing risk regarding a pathogen/product combination, to design risk ...

  2. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment For Emergency Preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The importance of nuclear power plant PSA has grown up all over the world due to this incident. The main concern of this study is to develop a methodology to carry on an emergency preparedness evaluation and to set an exclusive area, or the emergency response area boundary in order to apply it to domestic reference plants. This study also focuses on evaluating the risk parameter of major nuclides through a sensitivity analysis and a safety assessment by calculating the population dose, early fatality, and cancer fatality rates. A methodology for an emergency preparedness, which can be applied to evaluate the damage of the radioactive release as well as to assess the safety of the accident scenario of a nuclear power plant, has been developed and applied for the reference plants in Korea. By applying a source term analysis, an exclusive zone based on the radioactive dose is obtained. And the results of the health effect assessment based on the release fraction of specific nuclides to public with an effective emergency response activity have been simulated. A methodology utilizing the Level 3 PSA with the actual emergency response activities has been developed and applied to typical nuclear accident situations. The plausible standard for performing an emergency plan is suggested and the valuable information regarding emergency preparedness has been produced in this study. For further works, the sensitivity study on important parameters will be performed to simulate the actual severe accident situations such as sheltering, evacuation, and emergency response activities

  3. Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

    2012-10-01

    Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

  4. Risk, surprises and black swans fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management

    CERN Document Server

    Aven, Terje

    2014-01-01

    Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on.Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as 'Black Swans'. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them.

  5. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of radon gas (222Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the 226Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m-3 to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m-3, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m-3 to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m-3, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m-3 to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m-3, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m-3 to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m-3 and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m-3 to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m-3, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m-3, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m-3, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m-3 and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m-3, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the action level for radon gas of 148 Bq m-3 proposed by EPA except monazite 0.15 kg, struverite 0.15 kg and 0.25 kg. Whereas

  6. Radiological risk assessment of environmental radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khalid, Norafatin; Majid, Amran Ab; Yahaya, Redzuwan; Yasir, Muhammad Samudi [Nuclear Science Programme, School of Applied Physics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia)

    2013-11-27

    Measurements of radon gas ({sup 222}Rn) in the environmental are important to assess indoor air quality and to study the potential risk to human health. Generally known that exposure to radon is considered the second leading cause of lung cancer after smoking. The environmental radon concentration depends on the {sup 226}Ra concentration, indoor atmosphere, cracking on rocks and building materials. This study was carried out to determine the indoor radon concentration from selected samples of tin tailings (amang) and building materials in an airtight sealed homemade radon chamber. The radiological risk assessment for radon gas was also calculated based on the annual exposure dose, effective dose equivalent, radon exhalation rates and fatal cancer risk. The continuous radon monitor Sun Nuclear model 1029 was used to measure the radon concentration emanates from selected samples for 96 hours. Five types of tin tailings collected from Kampar, Perak and four samples of building materials commonly used in Malaysia dwellings or building constructions were analysed for radon concentration. The indoor radon concentration determined in ilmenite, monazite, struverite, xenotime and zircon samples varies from 219.6 ± 76.8 Bq m{sup −3} to 571.1 ± 251.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 101.0 ± 41.0 Bq m{sup −3} to 245.3 ± 100.2 Bq m{sup −3}, 53.1 ± 7.5 Bq m{sup −3} to 181.8 ± 9.7 Bq m{sup −3}, 256.1 ± 59.3 Bq m{sup −3} to 652.2 ± 222.2 Bq m{sup −3} and 164.5 ± 75.9 Bq m{sup −3} to 653.3 ± 240.0 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. Whereas, in the building materials, the radon concentration from cement brick, red-clay brick, gravel aggregate and cement showed 396.3 ± 194.3 Bq m{sup −3}, 192.1 ± 75.4 Bq m{sup −3}, 176.1 ± 85.9 Bq m{sup −3} and 28.4 ± 5.7 Bq m{sup −3}, respectively. The radon concentration in tin tailings and building materials were found to be much higher in xenotime and cement brick samples than others. All samples in tin tailings were exceeded the

  7. Risk assessment of malicious biocontamination of food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elad, Daniel

    2005-06-01

    Throughout the last decades of the 20th century, the biological threat evolved from primarily a government-controlled weapon to a tool of terrorism. One of the consequences of this trend is the near impossibility of foreseeing when and how an act of bioterrorism will occur. The suitability of food products for such an act stems from the multitude of microorganisms that may be used for contamination and the vulnerability of the products during and after processing. Tests that would enable the detection of a large variety of microorganisms quickly, reliably, and economically should also provide satisfactory means to prevent acts of malicious biocontamination of food products. Until such means become available, a priority-based approach to the problem is probably the most practical. Priorities should be determined based on a systematic risk assessment to define the relative likelihood of a certain microorganism being used in an act of malicious food contamination. Criteria to be evaluated are availability, weaponization processes, delivery of an effective dose, probability of early detection, and the microorganism's resistance to the conditions to which it will be exposed. Because the results of such an assessment may vary according to prevailing conditions, the assessment must be based on the existing circumstances. The results of the assessment should then be applied to the various procedures of food processing, which should further reduce the number of potential microbial threats. Existing methods of screening food for contaminating microorganisms and existing food safety and security procedures such as hazard analysis and critical control point programs may have to be modified to become suitable for the detection of acts of bioterrorism.

  8. Comparative Assessment Of Natural Gas Accident Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S

    2005-01-01

    The study utilizes a hierarchical approach including (1) comparative analyses of different energy chains, (2) specific evaluations for the natural gas chain, and (3) a detailed overview of the German situation, based on an extensive data set provided by Deutsche Vereinigung des Gas- und Wasserfaches (DVGW). According to SVGW-expertise DVGW-data can be regarded as fully representative for Swiss conditions due to very similar technologies, management, regulations and safety culture, but has a substantially stronger statistical basis because the German gas grid is about 30 times larger compared to Switzerland. Specifically, the following tasks were carried out by PSI to accomplish the objectives of this project: (1) Consolidation of existing ENSAD data, (2) identification and evaluation of additional sources, (3) comparative assessment of accident risks, and (4) detailed evaluations of specific issues and technical aspects for severe and smaller accidents in the natural gas chain that are relevant under Swiss conditions. (author)

  9. Risk assessment of tuberculosis in immunocompromised patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sester, Martina; van Leth, Frank; Bruchfeld, Judith;

    2014-01-01

    RATIONALE: In the absence of active tuberculosis, a positive tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) result defines latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, although test results may vary depending on immunodeficiency. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performance...... of TST and IGRAs in five different groups of immunocompromised patients, and evaluated their ability to identify those at risk for development of tuberculosis. METHODS: Immunocompromised patients with HIV infection, chronic renal failure, rheumatoid arthritis, solid-organ or stem-cell transplantation......, and healthy control subjects were evaluated head-to-head by the TST, QuantiFERON-TB-Gold in-tube test (ELISA), and T-SPOT.TB test (enzyme-linked immunospot) at 17 centers in 11 European countries. Development of tuberculosis was assessed during follow-up. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Frequencies of positive...

  10. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  11. Session: Pre-development project risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Richard; Linehan, Andy

    2004-09-01

    This second session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of two presentations followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The focus of the presentations was on the practices and methodologies used in the wind energy industry for assessing risk to birds and bats at candidate project sites. Presenters offered examples of pre-development siting evaluation requirements set by certain states. Presentation one was titled ''Practices and Methodologies and Initial Screening Tools'' by Richard Curry of Curry and Kerlinger, LLC. Presentation two was titled ''State of the Industry in the Pacific Northwest'' by Andy Linehan, CH2MHILL.

  12. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Ch

  13. Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan; Brandt, Urs Steiner

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptan...

  14. Inhalation cancer risk assessment of cobalt metal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Mina; Thompson, Chad M; Brorby, Gregory P; Mittal, Liz; Proctor, Deborah M

    2016-08-01

    Cobalt compounds (metal, salts, hard metals, oxides, and alloys) are used widely in various industrial, medical and military applications. Chronic inhalation exposure to cobalt metal and cobalt sulfate has caused lung cancer in rats and mice, as well as systemic tumors in rats. Cobalt compounds are listed as probable or possible human carcinogens by some agencies, and there is a need for quantitative cancer toxicity criteria. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has derived a provisional inhalation unit risk (IUR) of 0.009 per μg/m(3) based on a chronic inhalation study of soluble cobalt sulfate heptahydrate; however, a recent 2-year cancer bioassay affords the opportunity to derive IURs specifically for cobalt metal. The mechanistic data support that the carcinogenic mode of action (MOA) is likely to involve oxidative stress, and thus, non-linear/threshold mechanisms. However, the lack of a detailed MOA and use of high, toxic exposure concentrations in the bioassay (≥1.25 mg/m(3)) preclude derivation of a reference concentration (RfC) protective of cancer. Several analyses resulted in an IUR of 0.003 per μg/m(3) for cobalt metal, which is ∼3-fold less potent than the provisional IUR. Future research should focus on establishing the exposure-response for key precursor events to improve cobalt metal risk assessment. PMID:27177823

  15. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  16. Evolutionary Consequences for Ecological Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gochfeld, Michael; Burger, Joanna

    1993-01-01

    Discusses the use of the human health risk assessment model as a basis for developing ecological risk assessment (ERA). For ERA, risk to individuals is less important than the survival of the population, with the exception of endangered species. Suggests that ERA take into account the relative reproductive value of the potentially impacted…

  17. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  18. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crevel, R.W.R.; Baumert, J.L.; Baka, A.; Houben, G.F.; Knulst, A.C.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Luccioli, S.; Taylor, S.L.; Madsen, C.B.

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessment

  19. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  20. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    . Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.

  1. Spatial risk assessment for critical network infrastructure using sensitivity analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Michael M·derl; Wolfgang Rauch

    2011-01-01

    The presented spatial risk assessment method allows for managing critical network infrastructure in urban areas under abnormal and future conditions caused e.g.,by terrorist attacks,infrastructure deterioration or climate change.For the spatial risk assessment,vulnerability maps for critical network infrastructure are merged with hazard maps for an interfering process.Vulnerability maps are generated using a spatial sensitivity analysis of network transport models to evaluate performance decrease under investigated thread scenarios.Thereby parameters are varied according to the specific impact of a particular threat scenario.Hazard maps are generated with a geographical information system using raster data of the same threat scenario derived from structured interviews and cluster analysis of events in the past.The application of the spatial risk assessment is exemplified by means of a case study for a water supply system,but the principal concept is applicable likewise to other critical network infrastructure.The aim of the approach is to help decision makers in choosing zones for preventive measures.

  2. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: Systems science approach to change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo P Janecka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundMedicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases.There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One- it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two- it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Material / MethodPublic domain records of change, during the last fifty years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results / Conclusions Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems’ relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems.From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

  3. Gasbuggy Site Assessment and Risk Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-03-01

    contaminant exposure scenario, drilling of natural gas wells near the site. The results of this risk evaluation will guide DOE's future surveillance and monitoring activities in the area to ensure that site conditions are adequately protective of human health. This evaluation is not a comprehensive risk assessment for the site; it is intended to provide assurance that DOE's monitoring approach can detect the presence of site-related contamination at levels well below those that would pose an unacceptable risk to human health.

  4. Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

    2013-11-30

    Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks.

  5. Who comes to a workplace health risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbins, T A; Simpson, J M; Oldenburg, B; Owen, N; Harris, D

    1998-01-01

    Workplace health promotion initiatives have proliferated, but there are difficulties in recruiting employees of lower socioeconomic status and at higher risk of disease. A survey of health behaviors and attitudes was administered in 20 worksites and the opportunity to attend a health risk assessment promoted. Those more likely to attend were women, those of higher occupational prestige, and those from a non-English-speaking background. After adjustment for these variables, the only health behavior associated with attendance was smoking status. Perceived risk of lung cancer was significant, even after adjustment for smoking status. Stage of readiness to change health behaviors was associated with attendance, with those in the preparation stage being more likely to attend than those in the precontemplation stage. However, this association was statistically significant only for fruit and vegetable consumption. There was no relation between attendance and support for health promotion, perceived general health, or other perceived risk of disease. These findings suggest that additional risk communication strategies and environmental support are required to involve those with less prestigious occupations.

  6. Population-scale assessment endpoints in ecological risk assessment. Part 1: Reflections of stakeholder values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G

    2006-01-01

    The selection of appropriate assessment endpoints is a basic element of an ecological risk assessment, especially at regional or watershed scales. Because ecological services often are tied to specific species, the risk to populations is a critical endpoint and feature of ecological risk assessments. The first item is a discussion of the replacement of population-level risk assessment with the construct of a population-scale assessment endpoint. Next, the criteria that are currently used for assessment endpoints are reviewed and evaluated for utility in an ecological risk assessment. Following this examination, assessment endpoints from a number of regional-scale ecological risk assessments are compared. The outcome of this evaluation is that population-scale assessment endpoints are important expressions of the valued components of ecological structures. Finally, a few recommendations for the selection of assessment endpoints at a population scale are listed. PMID:16640323

  7. Falls risk assessment in older patients in hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata

    2016-07-27

    Falls are the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, usually affecting older patients. All hospitals in NHS organisations develop risk prevention policies that include falls risk assessment. Falls risk assessment involves the use of risk screening tools, aimed at identifying patients at increased risk of falls, and risk assessment tools, which identify a patient's risk factors for falls. Various risk screening tools have been used in clinical practice, but no single tool is able to identify all patients at risk of falls or to accurately exclude all those who are not at risk of falls. Guidelines recommend that patients aged 65 years and over who are admitted to hospital should be considered at high risk of falls and that a multifactorial falls risk assessment should be performed. Therefore, falls risk assessment tools should be used to identify the risk factors for each inpatient aged 65 years or over, in order to determine the most appropriate care plan for falls prevention and to maximise patient mobility and independence. PMID:27461329

  8. Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena;

    2016-01-01

    Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans...

  9. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  10. Risk communication: Anthropogenically induced climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to reduce the risk of the greenhouse effect, conventional thermal power plants should be substituted by maximum energy conservation, use of renewable energies, and low-risk, high-tech nuclear power plants. Motor traffic exhausts could be eliminated by alternative fuels, and trace gas reducers, such as tropical rain forests, preserved by financial adjustments. CFC's are to be reduced in any case in order to lower the ozone risk. (DG)

  11. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  12. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  13. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.;

    2011-01-01

    the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... Panel and has been conceived as an enhancement of the relevant parts of the “Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA”. Emphasizing the importance of assessing the consequences on both the structural...... and for ecosystem services in the current area of invasion and in the risk assessment area. To ensure the consistency and transparency of the assessment, a rating system has also been developed based on a probabilistic approach with an evaluation of the degree of uncertainty. Finally, an overview of the available...

  14. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  15. Assessing risk for aggression in forensic psychiatric inpatients: An examination of five measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Neil R; Olver, Mark E

    2016-06-01

    The present study examined risk for inpatient aggression, including treatment-related changes in risk, using a battery of 5 forensic instruments. The relative contributions of different types of risk factors to the assessment of risk for inpatient outcomes were also assessed. The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20V3, Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability, Violence Risk Scale, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised were rated from archival information sources on a sample of 99 adult forensic inpatients from a Canadian psychiatric hospital. Pretreatment and posttreatment ratings were obtained on all dynamic study measures; associations between risk and change ratings with inpatient aggression were examined. Significant pretreatment-posttreatment differences were found on the HCR-20V3, START, and VRS; pretreatment scores on these measures each demonstrated predictive accuracy for inpatient aggression (AUC = .68 to .76) whereas the PCL-R and VRAG-R did not. HCR-20V3, VRS, and START dynamic scores demonstrated incremental predictive validity for inpatient aggression to varying degrees after controlling for static risk factors. Dynamic change scores from these 3 measures also demonstrated incremental concurrent associations with reductions in inpatient aggression after controlling for baseline risk. Several instruments demonstrated predictive validity for inpatient aggression and clinical/dynamic risk and change scores had unique associations with this outcome. The present findings suggest that risk assessments using the HCR-20 V3, START, and VRS may inform the management and reduction of inpatient aggression, as well as assessments of dynamic risk more generally. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26828708

  16. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  17. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. PMID:25929802

  18. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

  19. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin; Tarcísio Abreu Saurin; Diego de Castro Fettermann

    2014-01-01

    The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI). Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop...

  20. Cancer Risk Assessment for the Primary Care Physician

    OpenAIRE

    Korde, Larissa A; Gadalla, Shahinaz M.

    2009-01-01

    Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States. Cancer risk assessment can be divided into two major categories: assessment of familial or genetic risk and assessment of environmental factors that may be causally related to cancer. Identification of individuals with a suspected heritable cancer syndrome can lead to additional evaluation and to interventions that can substantially decrease cancer risk. Special attention should also be paid to potentially modifiable cancer ris...

  1. Risk Assessment of Critical Communication Infrastructure in Railways in Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Johnsen, Stig O.; Veen, Mona

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the significant findings of a risk assessment of infrastructure used in emergency communication by railways in Norway. The initial risk assessment was performed in 2008 and we have reviewed the results in 2010, documenting mitigating actions and their effect. The development of safety and security culture has also been evaluated. The risk assessment was based on a socio-technical approach, which considers technical, organizational and human factors. Action research was us...

  2. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  3. Risk Assessment Model and Supply Chain Risk Catalog

    OpenAIRE

    Borut Jereb; Tina Cvahte; Bojan Rosi

    2011-01-01

    By managing risk on the level of the supply chain we gain insight of all potential threats to all organizations involved in the chain as well as to the supply chain itself, especially to the logistics resources: flow of goods, services and information; logistics infrastructure and suprastructure; and people. Supply chain risk management should represent a crucial activity in every organization. As there is currently no standard specifically aimed at holistic supply chain risk management, we p...

  4. Assessment of wind turbine seismic risk : existing literature and simple study of tower moment demand.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prowell, Ian (University of California, San Diego, CA); Veers, Paul S.

    2009-03-01

    Various sources of risk exist for all civil structures, one of which is seismic risk. As structures change in scale, the magnitude of seismic risk changes relative to risk from other sources. This paper presents an introduction to seismic hazard as applied to wind turbine structures. The existing design methods and research regarding seismic risk for wind turbines is then summarized. Finally a preliminary assessment is made based on current guidelines to understand how tower moment demand scales as rated power increases. Potential areas of uncertainty in the application of the current guidelines are summarized.

  5. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ,000 products, and implementing other aspects of the statute, EPA employs about 900 people. Unlike the approval process and actions to cancel pesticides in some countries, in the U.S. they are generally much more transparent. The need for specific test guidelines and the nature of the protocols are debated in the scientific community. Test data adequacy is evaluated according to objective criteria, and study findings are reviewed using standard evaluation procedures and risk assessment guidelines that have been through public comment. Agency risk concerns for a registered pesticide are vetted at a meeting of its Scientific Advisory Panel, a group of technical experts outside of government, where the potential risk case is reviewed and discussed. The meeting is open to the public with opportunity for input from industry, public interest groups, and other parties. Formal Agency regulatory proposals to cancel registered pesticides are published for public review and comment, and there may be several rounds of public involvement before a final decision is reached. Even after a regulatory decision has been made, and unless a settlement has been reached, the Agency is often sued by an environmental group or industry that questions the EPA position; in such situations, the case is then transferred to the court for deliberation. Risks are evaluated for a host of different effects by the pesticide program: acute and chronic, human health and ecological

  6. Risk assessment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Kristina D; Gerba, Charles P

    2009-01-01

    . 1986). Outbreaks have also been reported from exposure to P. aeruginosa in swimming pools and water slides. Although P. aeruginosa has a reputation for being resistant to disinfection, most studies show that it does not exhibit any marked resistance to the disinfectants used to treat drinking water such as chlorine, chloramines, ozone, or iodine. One author, however, did find it to be slightly more resistant to UV disinfection than most other bacteria (Wolfe 1990). Although much has been written about biofilms in the drinking water industry, very little has been reported regarding the role of P. aeruginosa in biofilms. Tap water appears to be a significant route of transmission in hospitals, from colonization of plumbing fixtures. It is still not clear if the colonization results from the water in the distribution system, or personnel use within the hospital. Infections and colonization can be significantly reduced by placement of filters on the water taps. The oral dose of P. aeruginosa required to establish colonization in a healthy subject is high (George et al. 1989a). During dose-response studies, even when subjects (mice or humans) were colonized via ingestion, there was no evidence of disease. P. aeruginosa administered by the aerosol route at levels of 10(7) cells did cause disease symptoms in mice, and was lethal in aerosolized doses of 10(9) cells. Aerosol dose-response studies have not been undertaken with human subjects. Human health risks associated with exposure to P. aeruginosa via drinking water ingestion were estimated using a four-step risk assessment approach. The risk of colonization from ingesting P. aeruginosa in drinking water is low. The risk is slightly higher if the subject is taking an antibiotic resisted by P. aeruginosa. The fact that individuals on ampicillin are more susceptible to Pseudomonas gastrointestinal infection probably results from suppression of normal intestinal flora, which would allow Pseudomonas to colonize. The process of

  7. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  8. Elusive Critical Elements of Transformative Risk Assessment Practice and Interpretation: Is Alternatives Analysis the Next Step?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Royce A

    2015-11-01

    This article argues that "game-changing" approaches to risk analysis must focus on "democratizing" risk analysis in the same way that information technologies have democratized access to, and production of, knowledge. This argument is motivated by the author's reading of Goble and Bier's analysis, "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game-Changing Information Technology-But Too Often It Isn't" (Risk Analysis, 2013; 33: 1942-1951), in which living risk assessments are shown to be "game changing" in probabilistic risk analysis. In this author's opinion, Goble and Bier's article focuses on living risk assessment's potential for transforming risk analysis from the perspective of risk professionals-yet, the game-changing nature of information technologies has typically achieved a much broader reach. Specifically, information technologies change who has access to, and who can produce, information. From this perspective, the author argues that risk assessment is not a game-changing technology in the same way as the printing press or the Internet because transformative information technologies reduce the cost of production of, and access to, privileged knowledge bases. The author argues that risk analysis does not reduce these costs. The author applies Goble and Bier's metaphor to the chemical risk analysis context, and in doing so proposes key features that transformative risk analysis technology should possess. The author also discusses the challenges and opportunities facing risk analysis in this context. These key features include: clarity in information structure and problem representation, economical information dissemination, increased transparency to nonspecialists, democratized manufacture and transmission of knowledge, and democratic ownership, control, and interpretation of knowledge. The chemical safety decision-making context illustrates the impact of changing the way information is produced and accessed in the risk context. Ultimately, the author concludes that although

  9. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  10. Tier 1 Ecological Risk Assessment of a Contaminated Rail Corridor

    OpenAIRE

    Steer, Scott

    2004-01-01

    A screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted for a contaminated rail corridor in British Columbia. The purpose of the ERA was to demonstrate the utility of British Columbia Tier 1 ERA methodology for identifying contaminated sites with unacceptable ecological risks requiring remediation andor risk management. The methodology applies a weight of evidence approach to characterize ecological risks with risk quotients and site observations serving as the two lines of evidence....

  11. THE ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE OF THE OPERATIONAL RISK EVENTS

    OpenAIRE

    Iulia Iuga

    2009-01-01

    A credit institution must establish a management framework of the operational risk.This framework must cover the appetite and tolerance to the operational risk of a credit institution,in accordance with the management policies of this risk, including the measure and method inwhich the operational risk is transferred outside the credit institution.The management framework of the operational risk should include policies and processes for theidentification, assessment, monitoring and control/dim...

  12. Risk assessment and management in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nine case studies have been dealt with within the IAEA international coordinated research program ''Comparison of cost-effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems'', viz.: 1. Reducing radium concentration in uranium mine waste waters; 2. Reducing tritium concentration in nuclear power plant liquid effluents; 3. Reducing radiation exposure of maintenance personnel in nuclear power plants; 4. Reducing the incidence of injuries in power generation; 5. Reducing the radioactivity of gaseous effluents from nuclear power plants in normal operation; 6. Reducing SO2 exhalation; 7. Increasing safety of transport jobs in the nuclear fuel cycle; 8. Reducing the radioactivity of solid wastes from coal-burning power plants; 9. Reducing the content of natural radionuclides in drinking water. Decision analysis is then used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the individual measures. Preconditions and results are summed up for case study No. 5 showing that increasing above 24 the number of sections in the system for reducing the radioactivity of nuclear power plant gaseous effluents in normal operation is not cost-effective. (J.B.). 2 figs., 2 tabs., 11 refs

  13. Photogrammetry in Experiments for Hydrogeological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazzetti, L.; Scaioni, M.; Feng, T.; Qiao, G.; Lu, P.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

    2013-01-01

    The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN) to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors) can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors), potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China).

  14. PHOTOGRAMMETRY IN EXPERIMENTS FOR HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Barazzetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The construction of scaled-down simulation platforms is largely used to support investigations for the assessment of hydrological risk. Achieved outcomes can be integrated and assimilated to numerical analyses for the study of unstable slope collapse, debris transport, and hydrological modeling in general. During design of such simulation platforms, a relevant role has to be given to the spatial sensor network (SSN to deploy, which is in charge of collecting geo-referenced, quantitative information during experiments. Photogrammetry (including 3D imaging sensors can play an important role in SSN owing to its capability of collecting 2D images and 3D point clouds data covering wide surfaces without any contact. Different kinds of metric measurements can be then extracted from datasets. The aim of this paper is to give an overview and some examples on the potential of photogrammetry in hydrogeological experiments. After a general introduction on a few preliminary issues (sensors, calibration, ground reference, usage of imaging or ranging sensors, potential applications are classified into 2D and 3D categories. Examples are focused on a scaled-down landslide simulation platform developed at Tongji University (Shanghai, P. R. China.

  15. Consideration of environmental change in performance assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinedo, P; Thorne, M; Egan, M; Calvez, M; Kautsky, U

    2005-01-01

    Depending on the particular circumstances in which a post-closure performance assessment of a radioactive waste repository is made, it may be appropriate to follow simple or more complex approaches in characterising the biosphere. Several different Example Reference Biospheres were explored in BIOMASS Theme 1 to address a range of issues that arise. Here, consideration is given to Example Reference Biospheres relevant to representing the implications of changes that may occur within the biosphere system during the period over which releases of radionuclides from a disposal facility might take place. Mechanisms of change considered include those extrinsic and intrinsic to the system of interest. An overall methodology for incorporating environmental change into assessments is proposed. This includes screening of primary mechanisms of change; identification of possible time sequences of change; development of a coherent description of the regional landscape response for each time sequence; integration of source term and geosphere-biosphere interface information; identification and description of one or more time series of assessment biospheres; and evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of simulating the effects of sequences of biosphere systems and the transitions between them, or of defining a set of biosphere systems to be represented individually in a non-sequential analysis. The usefulness of the methodology is explored in two site-specific examples and one generic example. PMID:16198459

  16. Dangerousness and risk assessment: the state of the art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Arie; Rosca, Paula; Khawalled, Razak; Gruzniewski, Adrian; Grinshpoon, Alex

    2003-01-01

    Risk or dangerousness is an issue which burdens the minds of all mental health and law enforcement professionals. Researchers have attempted to define its extent and constituent elements and to predict and assess it. Risk assessment is a complex task, influenced by the interaction of many variables, such as previous pattern of violence, biological, sociological and psychological factors, divided into facilitating and inhibiting factors. In our paper we discuss the theoretical concepts linked with dangerousness prediction and assessment, and then review the "first" and "second" generations of literature on dangerousness and risk assessment, including the actuarial instruments. We then present the current trends in the field, concentrating on the correlation between dangerousness and mental disorders, dangerousness analysis and risk management, a wider concept including prevention, treatment and communication of risk. Although great progress has been made in this field, there are still many unresolved issues, among them the development of valid instruments for the assessment of risk.

  17. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  18. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  19. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-01-01

    In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of...

  20. CEA: assessment of risk management 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes an overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management in different areas: impact on the environment, installation safety, management of occupational risks (occupational health and safety), radiological protection of workers, transportation of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of law risks, controls and audits. It finally presents the risk management department