WorldWideScience

Sample records for change potential effects

  1. Effects of Potential Lane-Changing Probability on Uniform Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Tieqiao; Huang Haijun; Shang Huayan

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we use the car-following model with the anticipation effect of the potential lane-changing probability (Acta Mech. Sin. 24 (2008) 399) to investigate the effects of the potential lane-changing probability on uniform flow. The analytical and numerical results show that the potential lane-changing probability can enhance the speed and flow of uniform flow and that their increments are related to the density.

  2. The effect of membrane diffusion potential change on anionic drugs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of membrane potential change on anionic drugs Indomethacin and barbitone induced human erythrocyte shape change and red cell uptake of drug has been studied using microscopy and spectrophotometry techniques respectively. The membrane potential was changed by reducing the extracellular chloride ...

  3. Potential economic effects of climate change on Finnish agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. KETTUNEN

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In the assessment of the economic effects of climate change, changes in returns and costs have to be taken into consideration. Changes in returns are mainly caused by changes in the yield level. Costs are determined by various factors. Harvesting conditions may improve as the temperatures are higher. However, an increasing need for disease and pest control results in higher costs. Various extensive studies have indicated that rising temperatures with the CO2 fertilizing effect increase the crop potential in Finland. From the economic point of view an increase in yield level is highly significant, because the increase in costs remains quite small. A 10% increase in the yield level raises the farm income by about 6%. Because agriculture is supported in many ways either directly or indirectly, the rise in income level may be offset by lowering the support. Consequently, farmers may not benefit from an increase in the yield level, but the benefit will go to the state economy. However, an increase in the yield level resulting from rising temperatures is advantageous to the national economy, regardless of whether the benefit goes to the farmers or to the state.;

  4. Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

    2009-07-01

    The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

  5. A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2018-02-01

    Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

  6. Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion: The importance of current context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle M. CÔTÉ, Stephanie J. GREEN

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour: pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consumption rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfish in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local retention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing temperature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases (and hence overall prey consumption rates on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 (1: 1–8, 2012].

  7. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  8. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

    2006-10-15

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  9. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T.

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  10. Potential effects of climate change on hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biftu, G.F.; Beersing, A.; Kalinga, O.A.; Pandit, K.N.

    2007-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change must be incorporated within environmental assessments of oil and gas developments. This paper evaluated the findings of a study examining the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology in the oil sands region of Alberta. Components of the study included a review of trends in climate parameters and their effect on hydrology, as well as statistical analyses of precipitation, temperature and stream flow data of the Athabasca River at both the local and regional scale. The influences of tributary streams were also examined. Results of the study demonstrated that air temperatures have been steadily rising over the past few decades. Recorded annual precipitation also increased during the spring and summer months, and decreased during the winter and fall. Annual mean flows decreased. Results suggested that wet and dry cycles tended to exaggerate trends when only partial segments of the cycles were analyzed. The analysis of flows in the tributary streams indicated a that mean and peak flows were also decreasing. However, an increase in peak winter flows was observed. It was concluded that there is a large degree of uncertainty in the predictions of the hydrologic effects of climate change. 17 refs., 6 tabs

  11. General review on climate change problems: causes, potential effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martellet, J.

    1991-01-01

    Greenhouse gases and greenhouse effect principles are reviewed and climate changes due to the human activities are discussed: identification of gases, human or natural causes, composition evolution in the atmosphere and relative roles of greenhouse gases. The various tools and calculations methods for evaluating the climate change due to greenhouse effect are presented. Several problems are stated: evolution of the climate structure in 2030, variations of the climatic extremes and the extreme phenomena, augmentation or diminution of the storms on a warmed planet, long term evolution of the climate. Some consequences of a climate change are reviewed: sea level raising, climate change effects on ecosystems. Precision and validity of these predictions are discussed; recommendations for diminishing the uncertainties are proposed

  12. Climate change effects on hydropower potential of the Alcantara river basin in Sicily (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella

    2013-04-01

    In recent years an increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is high vulnerable to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to Southern countries which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara river basin, Eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first order Markov chain and an ARMA model respectively, for the current scenario and two future scenarios at 2025. In particular, the mean and standard deviation values of daily rainfall and temperature at 2025, calculated using simulations of the Hadley Centre Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3), are adopted to generate future scenarios of precipitation and temperature. Synthetic series for the two climatic scenarios are, then, introduced as input into the IHACRES model to simulate the hydrological response of the basin. The effects of climate change are, then, investigated by analysing potential modification of the resulting flow duration curves and utilisation curves, which allow to estimate a site's energy potential for the design of run-of-river hydropower plants.

  13. Potential Environmental and Ecological Effects of Global Climate Change on Venomous Terrestrial Species in the Wilderness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Needleman, Robert K; Neylan, Isabelle P; Erickson, Timothy

    2018-06-01

    Climate change has been scientifically documented, and its effects on wildlife have been prognosticated. We sought to predict the overall impact of climate change on venomous terrestrial species. We hypothesize that given the close relationship between terrestrial venomous species and climate, a changing global environment may result in increased species migration, geographical redistribution, and longer seasons for envenomation, which would have repercussions on human health. A retrospective analysis of environmental, ecological, and medical literature was performed with a focus on climate change, toxinology, and future modeling specific to venomous terrestrial creatures. Species included venomous reptiles, snakes, arthropods, spiders, and Hymenoptera (ants and bees). Animals that are vectors of hemorrhagic infectious disease (eg, mosquitos, ticks) were excluded. Our review of the literature indicates that changes to climatic norms will have a potentially dramatic effect on terrestrial venomous creatures. Empirical evidence demonstrates that geographic distributions of many species have already shifted due to changing climatic conditions. Given that most terrestrial venomous species are ectotherms closely tied to ambient temperature, and that climate change is shifting temperature zones away from the equator, further significant distribution and population changes should be anticipated. For those species able to migrate to match the changing temperatures, new geographical locations may open. For those species with limited distribution capabilities, the rate of climate change may accelerate faster than species can adapt, causing population declines. Specifically, poisonous snakes and spiders will likely maintain their population numbers but will shift their geographic distribution to traditionally temperate zones more often inhabited by humans. Fire ants and Africanized honey bees are expected to have an expanded range distribution due to predicted warming trends

  14. Effect of land use land cover change on soil erosion potential in an agricultural watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Arabinda; Tiwari, Kamlesh N; Bhadoria, P B S

    2011-02-01

    Universal soil loss equation (USLE) was used in conjunction with a geographic information system to determine the influence of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on soil erosion potential of a reservoir catchment during the period 1989 to 2004. Results showed that the mean soil erosion potential of the watershed was increased slightly from 12.11 t ha(-1) year(-1) in the year 1989 to 13.21 t ha(-1) year(-1) in the year 2004. Spatial analysis revealed that the disappearance of forest patches from relatively flat areas, increased in wasteland in steep slope, and intensification of cultivation practice in relatively more erosion-prone soil were the main factors contributing toward the increased soil erosion potential of the watershed during the study period. Results indicated that transition of other land use land cover (LUC) categories to cropland was the most detrimental to watershed in terms of soil loss while forest acted as the most effective barrier to soil loss. A p value of 0.5503 obtained for two-tailed paired t test between the mean erosion potential of microwatersheds in 1989 and 2004 also indicated towards a moderate change in soil erosion potential of the watershed over the studied period. This study revealed that the spatial location of LUC parcels with respect to terrain and associated soil properties should be an important consideration in soil erosion assessment process.

  15. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  16. Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeggemann, Jason J.; Kaemingk, Mark A.; DeBates, T.J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Krause, J.; Letvin, Alexander P.; Stevens, Tanner M.; Willis, David W.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2015-01-01

    Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

  17. Hydrologic effects of potential changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, Andrew D.; Koltun, G.F.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2015-01-01

    This report presents the results of a study to provide information on the hydrologic effects of potential 21st-century changes in climate, water use, and land cover in the Upper Scioto River Basin, Ohio (from Circleville, Ohio, to the headwaters). A precipitation-runoff model, calibrated on the basis of historical climate and streamflow data, was used to simulate the effects of climate change on streamflows and reservoir water levels at several locations in the basin. Two levels of simulations were done. The first level of simulation (level 1) accounted only for anticipated 21st-century changes in climate and operations of three City of Columbus upground reservoirs located in northwest Delaware County, Ohio. The second level of simulation (level 2) accounted for development-driven changes in land cover and water use in addition to changes in climate and reservoir operations.

  18. Climate Change in the US: Potential Consequences for Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. National Assessment identified five major areas of consequences of climate change in the United States: temperature-related illnesses and deaths, health effects related to extreme weather events, air pollution-related health effects, water- and food-borne diseases, and insect-, tick-, and rodent-borne diseases. The U.S. National Assessment final conclusions about these potential health effects will be described. In addition, a summary of some of the new tools for studying human health aspects of climate change as well as environment-health linkages through remotely sensed data and observations will be provided.

  19. Effect of Redox Potential on Changing of Binding Forms of Heavy Metals in Bottom Sediments of Anzali International Wetland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saeedi, M.; Fakhari, M.

    2016-01-01

    Heavy metals are naturally presented in different chemical bonds within sediment. Different factors affect metals bonding in sediment. One of those factors is changing in Redox potential. Redox potential may change under oxic/anoxic conditions in the bottom sediments. In the present study the effect of redox potential on fractionation and bonding of metals within Anzali international wetland bottom sediment is investigated.Sediment samples of Anzali wetland were aerated for one month and redox potential and p H was measured at 0, 1, 7, 21, and 28th days. Subsamples of sediments at mentioned days of experiments were taken and analyzed for Cu, Zn, Ni, and Cr for deferent chemical bonds using sequential extraction analysis. Results revealed that majority of Cu were presented in the sulfidic/organic bonds while Zn was associated with Fe/Mn oxides. Nickel and Cr were mostly associated in hard residual bonds. At the end of aeration process, with increasing redox potential, 8-23% of metals were released from sediments into dissolved phase. They mainly released from sulfide/organic bonds.

  20. Cultivated Land Changes and Agricultural Potential Productivity in Mainland China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linlin Xiao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available With rapid and continuous population growth and the associated declining quality of cultivated land, food security in China has been attracting the attention of scholars both domestically and internationally. In recent decades, the implications of the cultivated land balance policy have promoted spatial changes of cultivated land. Estimating the agricultural potential productivity and assessing its response to cultivated land changes could provide a scientific basis for strategic decision-making concerning grain production and thus guarantee food security. In the present study, the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ model was applied to estimate the agricultural potential productivity. Data from the second national land survey were first applied to characterize the changes of cultivated land (by comparing the cultivated land in 2009 with that in 2012 and their influence on potential productivity in Mainland China. We propose a utilization degree of total potential productivity (UTP and its ratio coefficient (RUTP to reveal the utilization status of potential productivity and its change characteristics at the provincial level. It was found that there was a trend for cultivated land to be shifted away from cities, and the average productive capability per hectare of cultivated land declined from 7386.5 kg/ha to 6955.2 kg/ha by occupying highly productive cultivated land generally near the cities and compensating less productive cultivated land in remote areas. UTPs and RUTPs indicate a significant difference in the utilization status of potential productivity among the 31 provinces of Mainland China. Grain production with the aim of sustainable development should be strategized according to the particular facts of each province. The methods we applied can mine the impacts of cultivated land changes on potential productivity and the utilization of potential productivity effectively.

  1. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  2. Interactive and individual effects of sensory potentiation and region-specific changes in excitability after spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, N; Parker, D

    2011-12-29

    While promoting regeneration across lesion sites is a main focus of research into spinal injury, changes also occur in the sublesion spinal cord and its sensory inputs. However, how these varied effects relate to recovery remains largely unknown. Here, we have examined changes in sensory inputs and region-specific changes in spinal cord excitability after spinal cord lesions in the lamprey, a model system for studying regeneration and functional recovery, and related the changes to the degree of locomotor recovery.Proprioceptive responses below lesion sites were potentiated and their rate of adaptation reduced 8-10 weeks after lesioning (i.e. when animals usually showed significant locomotor recovery). These effects were associated with changes in cellular properties that were consistent with an increase in proprioceptor excitability. However, the changes in proprioceptive inputs did not correlate with the degree of locomotor recovery. There were region-specific changes in spinal cord excitability below lesion sites. In isolation, these excitability changes also did not correlate with the degree of locomotor recovery, but in this case, there were significant interactions between the magnitude of stimulation-evoked responses across the lesion site (used to assess the extent of regeneration) and sublesion changes in excitability. These interactions differed in animals that recovered well or poorly, suggesting that the nature of this interaction influenced recovery. These results add to the evidence for diverse changes in the spinal cord after injury, and suggest that regenerated inputs and their interactions with sublesion networks influence the degree of functional recovery. Copyright © 2011 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Effects of land cover change on moisture availability and potential crop yield in the world’s breadbaskets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagley, Justin E; Desai, Ankur R; Dirmeyer, Paul A; Foley, Jonathan A

    2012-01-01

    The majority of the world’s food production capability is inextricably tied to global precipitation patterns. Changes in moisture availability—whether from changes in climate from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or those induced by land cover change (LCC)—can have profound impacts on food production. In this study, we examined the patterns of evaporative sources that contribute to moisture availability over five major global food producing regions (breadbaskets), and the potential for land cover change to influence these moisture sources by altering surface evapotranspiration. For a range of LCC scenarios we estimated the impact of altered surface fluxes on crop moisture availability and potential yield using a simplified linear hydrologic model and a state-of-the-art ecosystem and crop model. All the breadbasket regions were found to be susceptible to reductions in moisture owing to perturbations in evaporative source (ES) from LCC, with reductions in moisture availability ranging from 7 to 17% leading to potential crop yield reductions of 1–17%, which are magnitudes comparable to the changes anticipated with greenhouse warming. The sensitivity of these reductions in potential crop yield to varying magnitudes of LCC was not consistent among regions. Two variables explained most of these differences: the first was the magnitude of the potential moisture availability change, with regions exhibiting greater reductions in moisture availability also tending to exhibit greater changes in potential yield; the second was the soil moisture within crop root zones. Regions with mean growing season soil moisture fractions of saturation >0.5 typically had reduced impacts on potential crop yield. Our results indicate the existence of LCC thresholds that have the capability to create moisture shortages adversely affecting crop yields in major food producing regions, which could lead to future food supply disruptions in the absence of increased irrigation or other

  4. Relationships and their potential for change developed in difficult type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zoffmann, Vibeke; Kirkevold, Marit

    2007-01-01

    Few researchers have explored how relationships between patients and providers might change problem solving in clinical practice. The authors used grounded theory to study dyads of 11 people with diabetes and poor glycemic control, and 8 nurses interacting in diabetes teams. Relational Potential...... for Change was identified as a core category that involved three types of relationships. Professionals mostly shifted between less effective relationships characterized by I-you-distant provider dominance and I-you-blurred sympathy. Although rarely seen, a third relationship, I-you-sorted mutuality proved...... more effective than the others in exploiting the Relational Potential for Change. The three types of relationship differed in (a) scope of problem solving, (b) the roles assigned to the patient and the professionals, (c) use of difficult feelings and different points of view, and (d) quality...

  5. Potential effects of climatic change on radiological doses from disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amiro, B.D.

    1997-01-01

    The environmental assessment of deep geologic disposal of Canadian nuclear fuel waste considers many processes that could affect radionuclide transport to humans over thousands of years. Climatic change is an important feature that will occur over these long times. Glaciation will likely occur within the next 100,000 years over much of Canada, and its impact on radiological doses has been assessed previously. In the present study, we investigate the potential effect of short- term climatic change, usually associated with global warming caused by increases in atmospheric trace gases. We study the main biosphere transport pathways causing a radiological dose to humans from 129 I, which is the most important radionuclide in disposal of Canadian used nuclear fuel. Irrigation of a garden with contaminated well water is the main pathway and it can be affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. A cold, wet climate decreases the need for irrigation, and this decreases the radiological dose. A drastic climatic change, such as an increase in temperature from 10 to 20 degrees C and decrease in precipitation from 0.3 to 0.2 m during the growing season, is estimated to increase the dose by a factor of four. This is a relatively small change compared to the range of doses that arise from the variability and uncertainty in many of the parameters used in the environmental assessment models. Therefore, it is likely that the results of probabilistic dose assessment models can include the consequences of short-term climatic change. 39 refs., 3 figs

  6. Combined effects of changing-sign potential and critical nonlinearities in Kirchhoff type problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao-Sheng Liu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the existence and multiplicity of positive solutions for a class of Kirchhoff type problems involving changing-sign potential and critical growth terms. Using the concentration compactness principle and Nehari manifold, we obtain the existence and multiplicity of nonzero non-negative solutions.

  7. Midlatitude Storm Potential in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, J.; Romps, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    The effect of climate change on severe weather over the continental U.S. is calculated using CMIP5 output from ten GCMs. The potential for severe weather is evaluated in these models using an operational proxy of CAPE times shear; the calculation of CAPE is made possible by the presence of high-frequency data in the CMIP5 archive that was not available in CMIP3. First, the ability of each GCM to replicate modern-day distributions of CAPE and shear is assessed. It is found that the GCMs replicate the observed seasonal cycle of CAPE with reasonable fidelity, but a majority of the GCMs show an erroneous summertime CAPE maximum on the East Coast. The source of this persistent bias is explored. Second, the predicted changes in future severe-storm potential over the continental U.S. are evaluated using the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. The seasonal cycle of domain-averaged undilute CAPE over CONUS for 10 GCMs and radiosonde measurements. Data is averaged over the recent past ("RP") period of 1999-2008. Summertime (JJA) climatologies of CAPE over CONUS for 10 GCMs and radiosonde observations. Data is averaged over the recent past ("RP") period of 1999-2008. Six of the models show an erroneous CAPE maximum on the East Coast.

  8. Effecting dietary change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamson, Ashley J; Mathers, John C

    2004-11-01

    A world epidemic of diet-related chronic disease is currently being faced. In the UK incidence of obesity alone has tripled in the last 20 years and this trend is predicted to continue. Consensus exists for the urgent need for a change in diet and other lifestyle factors and for the direction and targets for this change. The evidence for how this change can be achieved is less certain. It has been established that disease processes begin in childhood. Recent evidence indicates that dietary habits too are established in childhood but that these habits are amenable to change. While establishing a healthy lifestyle in childhood is paramount, interventions have the potential to promote positive change throughout the life course. Success in reversing current trends in diet-related disease will depend on commitment from legislators, health professionals, industry and individuals, and this collaboration must seek to address not only the food choices of the individual but also the environment that influences such choices. Recent public health policy development in England, if fully supported and implemented, is a positive move towards this goal. Evidence for effective strategies to promote dietary change at the individual level is emerging and three reviews of this evidence are discussed. In addition, three recent dietary intervention studies, in three different settings and with different methods and aims, are presented to illustrate methods of effecting dietary change. Further work is required on what factors influence the eating behaviour and physical activity of individuals. There is a need for further theory-based research on which to develop more effective strategies to enable individuals to adopt healthier lifestyles.

  9. Health Effects of Climate Change (Environmental Health Student Portal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... change can affect your health. Read About It Climate Change and Human Health (Public Broadcasting Services (including their teacher resources)) - Web ... Health Sciences) - Overview of the potential effects of climate change on human health. Climate and Health Program: Health Effects (Centers for ...

  10. Potential health effects of climatic change: Effects of increased ultraviolet radiation on man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbach, F.

    1991-01-01

    There is scientific evidence that stratospheric ozone concentration has declined over the Northern Hemisphere in the past 20 years, and projections based on various assumption s about future release of chlorofluorocarbon gases and other contaminants suggest that this decline will continue into the next century. The effects on human health secondary to increase in biologically effective ultraviolet radiation are expected to consist of increases in nonmelanoma skin cancer and malignant melanoma of the skin, possible alteration of immune response, and development of lens cataracts. The recent and projected increases in skin cancer and changes in human immune responses are discussed. 19 refs

  11. Do Changes in Muscle Architecture Affect Post-Activation Potentiation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle Reardon, Jay R. Hoffman, Gerald T. Mangine, Adam J. Wells, Adam M. Gonzalez, Adam R. Jajtner, Jeremy R. Townsend, William P. McCormack, Jeffrey R. Stout, Maren S. Fragala, David H. Fukuda

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this randomized, cross-over design study was to examine the effect of three different muscle potentiation protocols on acute changes in muscle architecture and vertical jump performance. Eleven experienced, resistance trained men (25.2±3.6y completed three potentiation squat protocols using moderate intensity (MI; 75%, 3 sets x 10 repetitions, high intensity (HI; 90%, 3 sets x 3 repetitions and 100% (1RM; 1 set x 1repetition of their 1RM. In addition, all participants completed a control session (CTL in which no protocol was performed. During each testing session, muscle architecture and vertical jump testing were assessed at baseline (BL, 8min post (8P and 20min post (20P workout. Ultrasound measures included cross sectional area (CSA and pennation angle (PANG of both the rectus femoris (RF and vastus lateralis (VL. Following each ultrasound measure, peak vertical jump power (PVJP and mean (MVJP power was assessed using an accelerometer. Magnitude based inferences were used to make comparisons between trials. The MI trial resulted in a likely greater increase from BL to 8P and 20P in RF-CSA and VL-CSA, while the HI trial resulted in a likely greater change from BL to 20P in both RF-CSA and VL-CSA. Meanwhile, changes in PVJP and MVJP for the MI trial was likely decreased at BL-8P and BL–20P, while the HI trial was shown to result in a likely or possible decrease compared to CTL at BL-8P and BL–20P, respectively. A likely negative relationship was observed between changes in VL-PANG and MVJP (r = -0.35; p , 0.018 at BL-8P, and between changes in PVJP and RF-CSA (r = -0.37; p , 0.014 at BL–20P. Results of this study were unable to demonstrate any potentiation response from the trials employed, however these protocols did result in acute muscle architectural changes.

  12. Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

    2011-01-01

    Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop

  13. Effective potential for non-convex potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimoto, Y.; O'Raifeartaigh, L.; Parravicini, G.

    1983-01-01

    It is shown that the well-known relationship between the effective potential GAMMA and the vacuum graphs μ of scalar QFT follows directly from the translational invariance of the measure, and that it holds for all values of the fields phi if, and only if, the classical potential is convex. In the non-convex case μ appears to become complex for some values of phi, but it is shown that the complexity is only apparent and is due to the failure of the loop expansion. The effective potential actually remains real and well-defined for all phi, and reduces to μ in the neighbourhood of the classical minima. A number of examples are considered, notably potentials which are spontaneously broken. In particular the mechanism by which a spontaneous breakdown may be generated by radiative corrections is re-investigated and some new insights obtained. Finally, it is shown that the renormalization group equations for the parameters may be obtained by inspection from the effective potential, and among the examples considered are SU(n) fields and supermultiplets. In particular, it is shown that for supermultiplets the effective potential is not only real but positive. (orig.)

  14. Automatic detection of lexical change: an auditory event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller-Gass, Alexandra; Roye, Anja; Kirmse, Ursula; Saupe, Katja; Jacobsen, Thomas; Schröger, Erich

    2007-10-29

    We investigated the detection of rare task-irrelevant changes in the lexical status of speech stimuli. Participants performed a nonlinguistic task on word and pseudoword stimuli that occurred, in separate conditions, rarely or frequently. Task performance for pseudowords was deteriorated relative to words, suggesting unintentional lexical analysis. Furthermore, rare word and pseudoword changes had a similar effect on the event-related potentials, starting as early as 165 ms. This is the first demonstration of the automatic detection of change in lexical status that is not based on a co-occurring acoustic change. We propose that, following lexical analysis of the incoming stimuli, a mental representation of the lexical regularity is formed and used as a template against which lexical change can be detected.

  15. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  16. Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

    2011-01-01

    The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring

  17. Structural effects and potential changes in growth factor signalling in penis-projecting autonomic neurons after axotomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keast Janet R

    2006-05-01

    possibility of the formation of aberrant synaptic connections between injured and un-injured ganglion neurons. Together these changes demonstrate a broader effect on the pelvic autonomic circuitry than simply loss of neuroeffector connections. These structural changes are accompanied by potential changes in neurotrophic factor signalling due to altered expression of receptors for members of the GDNF family. Together our results advance understanding of the responses of pelvic autonomic nerve circuits to injury and may assist in designing strategies for promoting regeneration.

  18. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.

  19. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals

  20. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Potentials to mitigate climate change using biochar - the Austrian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckman, Viktor J.; Klinglmüller, Michaela; Liu, Jay; Uzun, Basak B.; Varol, Esin A.

    2015-04-01

    Biomass utilization is seen as one of various promising strategies to reduce additional carbon emissions. A recent project on potentials of biochar to mitigate climate change (FOREBIOM) goes even a step further towards bioenergy in combination of CCS or "BECS" and tries to assess the current potentials, from sustainable biomass availability to biochar amendment in soils, including the identification of potential disadvantages and current research needs. The current report represents an outcome of the 1st FOREBIOM Workshop held in Vienna in April, 2013 and tries to characterize the Austrian perspective of biochar for climate change mitigation. The survey shows that for a widespread utilization of biochar in climate change mitigation strategies, still a number of obstacles have to be overcome. There are concerns regarding production and application costs, contamination and health issues for both producers and customers besides a fragmentary knowledge about biochar-soil interactions specifically in terms of long-term behavior, biochar stability and the effects on nutrient cycles. However, there are a number of positive examples showing that biochar indeed has the potential to sequester large amounts of carbon while improving soil properties and subsequently leading to a secondary carbon sink via rising soil productivity. Diversification, cascadic utilization and purpose designed biochar production are key strategies overcoming initial concerns, especially regarding economic aspects. A theoretical scenario calculation showed that relatively small amounts of biomass that is currently utilized for energy can reduce the gap between Austria's current GHG emissions and the Kyoto target by about 30% if biomass residues are pyrolized and biochar subsequently used as soil amendment. However, by using a more conservative approach that is representing the aims of the underlying FOREBIOM project (assuming that 10% of the annual biomass increment from forests is used for biochar

  2. Continuous exposure of pesticides in an aquifer changes microbial biomass, diversity and degradation potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Lipthay, J. R.; Johnsen, K.; Aamand, J.

    2000-01-01

    We studied in situ effects of pesticide exposure on microbial degradation potential and community structure of aquifer sediments. Sediment samples pre-exposed to pesticides were significantly different to non-exposed control samples. Pre-exposed sediment showed an increased degradation potential ...... towards phenoxyalcanoic acid herbicides as well as impact on microbial diversity was observed. Furthermore, bacterial biomass was changed, e.g. increased numbers of phenoxyalcanoic acid degraders in pesticide exposed sediment.......We studied in situ effects of pesticide exposure on microbial degradation potential and community structure of aquifer sediments. Sediment samples pre-exposed to pesticides were significantly different to non-exposed control samples. Pre-exposed sediment showed an increased degradation potential...

  3. Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chen; Lai, Shiyu; Gao, Xueping; Xu, Liping

    2015-10-01

    To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

  4. Simulation of land use change and effect on potential deforestation using Markov Chain - Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujiono, Indra, T. L.; Harmantyo, D.; Rukmana, I. P.; Nadia, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to simulate land use change in 1996-2016 and its prediction in 2035 as well as its potential to deforestation. Both of these purposes were obtained through modeling analysis using Markov Chain Cellular Automata. This modeling method was considered important for understanding the causes and impacts. Based on the analysis, the land use change between 1996 to 2007 has caused forest loss (the region and non-region) covering an area of 62,012 ha. While in the period of 2007 to 2016, the change has lead to the east side of the slope grade of 0-15 percent and an altitude between 500-1000 meters above sea level. In this period, plantation area has increased by 50,822 ha, while the forest area has reduced from 80,038 ha. In a period of 20 years, North Bengkulu Regency has lost the forest area of 80,038 ha. The amount of intervention against forest suggested the potential for deforestation in this area. Simulation of land use change in 2035 did not indicate significant deforestation due to the limited land on physical factors such as slope and elevation. However, it should be noted that, in 2035, the area of conservation forest was reduced by 16,793 ha (29 %), while the areas of protected and production forest were reduced by 4,933 ha (19 %) and 2,114 ha (3 %), respectively. Land use change is a serious threat of deforestation, especially in forest areas in North Bengkulu Regency, where any decline in forest area means the addition of plantation area.

  5. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Julia L; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Barange, Manuel

    2012-11-05

    Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

  6. Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Di; Wang, Jing; Dai, Tong; Feng, Liping; Zhang, Jianping; Pan, Xuebiao; Pan, Zhihua

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade ( p gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

  7. [Effects of sevoflurane and propofol on evoked potentials during neurosurgical anesthesia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Itsuo; Hidaka, Syozo; Okada, Hironori; Kubo, Takashi; Okamura, Kenta; Kato, Takahiro

    2006-06-01

    The effect of anesthetics on somatosensory evoked potential (SEP) and auditory brain stem response (ABR) has been a subject of intense reseach over the last two decades. In fact, volatile anesthetics have been repeatedly shown to decrease cortical amplitude in a dose-dependent fashion but the information regarding the effect of propofol is incomplete. The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of sevoflurane and propofol on evoked potentials during comparable depth of anesthesia guided by bispectral index (BIS). Forty four patients scheduled for neurosurgery were studied. Anesthesia was maintained with intravenous propofol using target controlled infusion (TCI). We measured the change of amplitude and latency of SEP(N20-P25), ABR (V wave) and visual evoked potential (VEP: P100) at three sets of sevoflurane (0%, 1%, 2%) or propofol concentrations (effect site concentration of 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 microug x ml(-1)). BIS monitor was used to measure relative depth of hypnosis. With increasing concentrations of sevoflurane (0, 1% and 2%), SEP showed dose-related reduction in its amplitude, ABR produced less marked changes and VEP showed a significant reduction at 1%. VEP at the propofol concentration of 3.0 microg x ml(-1) was decreased significantly compared with the amplitude at 1.5 microg x ml(-1) concentration. No significant change was observed with SEP and ABR during the change of propofol dosages. BIS values were almost the same with each anesthetics. VEP was most strongly affected with anesthetics, and ABR showed less marked influence of sevoflurane and propofol. Propofol based TIVA technique would induce less change in evoked potentials than sevoflurane.

  8. Groundwater circulation and utilisation in an unconfined carbonate system - revealing the potential effect of climate change and humankind activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Ádám; Mádl-Szönyi, Judit

    2016-04-01

    Characteristics of gravitational groundwater flow systems in carbonate regions were presented by Mádl-Szönyi & Tóth (2015) based on theoretical considerations, identification and classification of groundwater flow-related field phenomena and numerical simulation. It was revealed that the changes of flow pattern in carbonate framework attributed to groundwater utilization and/or climate change are more apparent due to the effective hydraulic conductivity of carbonates. Consequently, natural or artificial disturbances of water level propagate farther, deeper and faster in carbonates than in siliciclastic basins. These changes could result in degradation and reorganization of hierarchical flow systems, modification of recharge and discharge areas and even alteration of physicochemical parameters (Mádl-Szönyi & Tóth, 2015). This paper presents the application of the gravity-driven regional groundwater flow concept to the hydrogeologically complex thick carbonate system of the Transdanubian Range, Hungary, depicting the flow pattern of the area and to a practical problem of a local study area, conflicts of interest of water supply and water use of a golf course. The question is how will the natural discharge on the golf course be influenced by the planned karst drinking water production well. In addition, the effects of climate change on this conflict were evaluated. We demonstrate the importance of the understanding the appropriate scale in karst studies and illustrate how the gravity-driven regional groundwater flow concept can help to determine it. For this purpose, the hydrogeological conditions of the study site were examined at different scales. The goals were to define the appropriate scale and reveal the effects of tectonic structures; and give prognoses for the possible impact of a planned drinking water well and climate change on the golf course based on numerical simulation. The study also showed the low geothermal potential of the area.

  9. Fast potential change in sawteeth in JIPP T-IIU tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Y.; Nishizawa, A.; Kawasumi, Y.

    1994-12-01

    Fast changes of electric potential with different polarities are observed during sawtooth oscillation in a core region of a tokamak plasma using a heavy ion beam probe. The potential change inside the inversion radius is found to be positive. The change is negative outside the inversion radius and shows clearly a propagation nature. The observed potential can be interpreted by the mixture of the potentials of two origins. One of them drives the fast MHD plasma motion through E/B drift and the other is a barrier potential induced by mixing of hot and cold plasmas at sawtooth crash. (author)

  10. Data Mashups: Potential Contribution to Decision Support on Climate Change and Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lora E. Fleming

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on “data mashups”. These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.

  11. Data mashups: potential contribution to decision support on climate change and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Lora E; Haines, Andy; Golding, Brian; Kessel, Anthony; Cichowska, Anna; Sabel, Clive E; Depledge, Michael H; Sarran, Christophe; Osborne, Nicholas J; Whitmore, Ceri; Cocksedge, Nicola; Bloomfield, Daniel

    2014-02-04

    Linking environmental, socioeconomic and health datasets provides new insights into the potential associations between climate change and human health and wellbeing, and underpins the development of decision support tools that will promote resilience to climate change, and thus enable more effective adaptation. This paper outlines the challenges and opportunities presented by advances in data collection, storage, analysis, and access, particularly focusing on "data mashups". These data mashups are integrations of different types and sources of data, frequently using open application programming interfaces and data sources, to produce enriched results that were not necessarily the original reason for assembling the raw source data. As an illustration of this potential, this paper describes a recently funded initiative to create such a facility in the UK for use in decision support around climate change and health, and provides examples of suitable sources of data and the purposes to which they can be directed, particularly for policy makers and public health decision makers.

  12. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  13. Modeling the effect of climate change to the potential invasion range of Piper aduncum Linnaeus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.C. Paquit

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential effect of invasive plant species on biodiversity is one of most important subject of inquiry at present. In many parts of the world, the alarming spread of these plants has been documented. Knowing that climate exerts a dominant control over the distribution of plant species, predictions can therefore be made to determine which areas the species would likely spread under a climate change scenario and that is what this study aims to tackle. In the current study, a total of 211 species occurrence points were used to model the current and projected suitability of Piper aduncum in Bukidnon, Philippines using Maxent. Results revealed that the suitability of the species was determined primarily by climatic factors with Bio 18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter as the strongest influencing variable with a mean percent contribution of 22.1%. The resulting model was highly accurate based on its mean test Area Under Curve that is equal to 0.917. Current prediction shows that suitable areas for Piper are concentrated along the southern portion of Bukidnon. Only 9% of the province is suitable for the species at present but is predicted to increase to 27% because of climate change. The central and southwestern parts of the province are the areas of high threat for invasion by Piper.

  14. Effects of macromolecular crowding on protein conformational changes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Dong

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Many protein functions can be directly linked to conformational changes. Inside cells, the equilibria and transition rates between different conformations may be affected by macromolecular crowding. We have recently developed a new approach for modeling crowding effects, which enables an atomistic representation of "test" proteins. Here this approach is applied to study how crowding affects the equilibria and transition rates between open and closed conformations of seven proteins: yeast protein disulfide isomerase (yPDI, adenylate kinase (AdK, orotidine phosphate decarboxylase (ODCase, Trp repressor (TrpR, hemoglobin, DNA beta-glucosyltransferase, and Ap(4A hydrolase. For each protein, molecular dynamics simulations of the open and closed states are separately run. Representative open and closed conformations are then used to calculate the crowding-induced changes in chemical potential for the two states. The difference in chemical-potential change between the two states finally predicts the effects of crowding on the population ratio of the two states. Crowding is found to reduce the open population to various extents. In the presence of crowders with a 15 A radius and occupying 35% of volume, the open-to-closed population ratios of yPDI, AdK, ODCase and TrpR are reduced by 79%, 78%, 62% and 55%, respectively. The reductions for the remaining three proteins are 20-44%. As expected, the four proteins experiencing the stronger crowding effects are those with larger conformational changes between open and closed states (e.g., as measured by the change in radius of gyration. Larger proteins also tend to experience stronger crowding effects than smaller ones [e.g., comparing yPDI (480 residues and TrpR (98 residues]. The potentials of mean force along the open-closed reaction coordinate of apo and ligand-bound ODCase are altered by crowding, suggesting that transition rates are also affected. These quantitative results and qualitative trends will

  15. Climate Change and Your National Forest: Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the El Yunque National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.N. Jennings; E.A. Treasure; S.G. McNulty

    2013-01-01

    Forestlands across the world are experiencing increased threats from fire, insect and plant invasions, disease, extreme weather, and drought. Scientists project increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns that can make these threats occur more often, with more intensity, and/or for longer durations. Although many of the effects of future changes are...

  16. Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

    1993-07-01

    Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

  17. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

  18. Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

    2017-02-01

    Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

  19. Climate change adaptation benefits of potential conservation partnerships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, William B; Theobald, David M

    2018-01-01

    We evaluate the world terrestrial network of protected areas (PAs) for its partnership potential in responding to climate change. That is, if a PA engaged in collaborative, trans-boundary management of species, by investing in conservation partnerships with neighboring areas, what climate change adaptation benefits might accrue? We consider core tenets of conservation biology related to protecting large areas with high environmental heterogeneity and low climate change velocity and ask how a series of biodiversity adaptation indicators change across spatial scales encompassing potential PA and non-PA partners. Less than 1% of current world terrestrial PAs equal or exceed the size of established and successful conservation partnerships. Partnering at this scale would increase the biodiversity adaptation indicators by factors up to two orders of magnitude, compared to a null model in which each PA is isolated. Most partnership area surrounding PAs is comprised of non-PAs (70%), indicating the importance of looking beyond the current network of PAs when promoting climate change adaptation. Given monumental challenges with PA-based species conservation in the face of climate change, partnerships provide a logical and achievable strategy for helping areas adapt. Our findings identify where strategic partnering efforts in highly vulnerable areas of the world may prove critical in safeguarding biodiversity.

  20. Effects of beam, target and substrate potentials in ion beam processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, J.M.E.

    1982-01-01

    Ion beam etching and deposition are normally carried out with beam, target and substrate potentials near ground potential. In this paper, the effects of intentional or unintentional changes in these potentials are described. Examples include beam neutralization, a single extraction grid, substrate bias, and target bias. Each example is described in terms of beam plasma parameters. (Auth.)

  1. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  2. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

  3. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    likely to decrease. Species with restricted distributions and specialized species of particular biomes are likely to suffer the greatest impacts. Migrant species are likely to suffer especially large impacts as climatic change alters both their breeding and wintering areas, as well as critical stopover......Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...

  4. Changes in the potential multiple cropping system in response to climate change in China from 1960-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Luo; Xu, Xinliang; Zhuang, Dafang; Chen, Xi; Li, Shuang

    2013-01-01

    The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.

  5. Hydrogeology and potential effects of changes in water use, Carson Desert agricultural area, Churchill County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Douglas K.; Johnson, Ann K.; Welch, Alan H.

    1996-01-01

    Operating Criteria and Procedures for Newlands Project irrigation and Public Law 101-618 could result in reductions in surface water used for agriculture in the Carson Desert, potentially affecting ground-water supplies from shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. A near-surface zone could exist at the top of the shallow aquifer near the center and eastern parts of the basin where underlying clay beds inhibit vertical flow and could limit the effects of changes in water use. In the basalt aquifer, water levels have declined about 10 feet from pre-pumping levels, and chloride and arsenic concentrations have increased. Conceptual models of the basin suggest that changes in water use in the western part of the basin would probably affect recharge to the shallow, intermediate, and basalt aquifers. Lining canals and removing land from production could cause water-level declines greater than 10 feet in the shallow aquifer up to 2 miles from lined canals. Removing land from production could cause water levels to decline from 4 to 17 feet, depending on the distribution of specific yield in the basin and the amount of water presently applied to irrigated fields. Where wells pump from a near-surface zone of the shallow aquifer, water level declines might not greatly affect pumping wells where the thickness of the zone is greatest, but could cause wells to go dry where the zone is thin.

  6. Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

    2018-04-01

    Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

  7. Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potential impacts of climate change and variability on groundwater resources in Nigeria. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... of climate change induced groundwater impacts due to largely multi-scale local and regional heterogeneity, there is need to evaluate groundwater resources, quality and ...

  8. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vate, J.F. van de

    1996-01-01

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  9. Cellulolytic potential under environmental changes in microbial communities from grassland litter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaud eBerlemont

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In many ecosystems, global changes are likely to profoundly affect microorganisms. In Southern California, changes in precipitation and nitrogen deposition may influence the composition and functional potential of microbial communities and their resulting ability to degrade plant material. To test whether environmental changes impact the distribution of functional groups involved in leaf litter degradation, we determined how the genomic diversity of microbial communities in a semi-arid grassland ecosystem changed under reduced precipitation or increased N deposition. We monitored communities seasonally over a period of two years to place environmental change responses into the context of natural variation. Fungal and bacterial communities displayed strong seasonal patterns, Fungi being mostly detected during the dry season whereas Bacteria were common during wet periods. Most putative cellulose degraders were associated with 33 bacterial genera and constituted ~18.2% of the microbial community. Precipitation reduction reduced bacterial abundance and cellulolytic potential whereas nitrogen addition did not affect the cellulolytic potential of the microbial community. Finally, we detected a strong correlation between the frequencies of genera putative cellulose degraders and cellulase genes. Thus, microbial taxonomic composition was predictive of cellulolytic potential. This work provides a framework for how environmental changes affect microorganisms responsible for plant litter deconstruction.

  10. Fire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan under predicted climate change : summary document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parisien, M.; Hirsch, K.; Todd, B.; Flannigan, M.; Kafka, V.; Flynn, N.

    2005-01-01

    This study assesses fire danger and fire behaviour potential in central Saskatchewan using simulated climate scenarios produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), including scenario analysis of base, double and triple level carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and uses available forest fuels to develop an absolute measure of fire behaviour. For each of these climate scenarios, the CRCM-generated weather was used as input variables into the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System. Fire behavior potential was quantified using head fire intensity, a measure of the fire's energy output because it can be related to fire behavior characteristics, suppression effectiveness, and fire effects. The report discusses the implications of fire behavior potential changes for fire and forest management. Preliminary results suggest a large increase in area burned in the study area by the end of the twenty-first century. Some of the possible fire management activities for long-term prediction include: pre-positioning of resources, preparedness planning, prioritization of fire and forest management activities and fire threat evaluation. 16 refs., 1 tab, 7 figs

  11. Potential climate change effects on the habitat of antarctic krill in the weddell quadrant of the southern ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Simeon L; Phillips, Tony; Atkinson, Angus

    2013-01-01

    Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21(st) century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

  12. The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehner, Bernhard; Czisch, Gregor; Vassolo, Sara

    2005-01-01

    This study presents a model-based approach for analyzing the possible effects of global change on Europe's hydropower potential at a country scale. By comparing current conditions of climate and water use with future scenarios, an overview is provided of today's potential for hydroelectricity generation and its mid- and long-term prospects. The application of the global water model WaterGAP for discharge calculations allows for an integrated assessment, taking both climate and socioeconomic changes into account. This study comprises two key parts: First, the 'gross' hydropower potential is analyzed, in order to outline the general distribution and trends in hydropower capabilities across Europe. Then, the assessment focuses on the 'developed' hydropower potential of existing hydropower plants, in order to allow for a more realistic picture of present and future electricity production. For the second part, a new data set has been developed which geo-references 5991 European hydropower stations and distinguishes them into run-of-river and reservoir stations. The results of this study present strong indications that, following moderate climate and global change scenario assumptions, severe future alterations in discharge regimes have to be expected, leading to unstable regional trends in hydropower potentials with reductions of 25% and more for southern and southeastern European countries

  13. Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

    2017-11-01

    Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  14. Climate and land-use change impacts on potential solar photovoltaic power generation in the Black Sea region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunderson, I.; Goyette, S.; Gago-Silva, A.; Quiquerez, L.; Lehmann, A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The solar resource is sufficient to provide PV power at suitable locations within the Black Sea catchment. • Climate change will not significantly impact the solar resource, although uncertainty exists. • Land-use change will significantly impact potential PV power, although socio-economic factors will have more importance. • It is important to strengthen regional cooperation for the integration of renewable energy resources. - Abstract: Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon that has recently been greatly impacted by anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One of the main contributing sectors to GHG emissions is the energy sector, due to its high dependency on fossil fuels. Renewable energy systems, notably solar energy, can be an effective climate change mitigation alternative. Photovoltaic (PV) technology provides an interesting method to produce electricity through a virtually infinite renewable resource at the human time scale: solar radiation. This study evaluates the current and future solar energy potential through the use of grid-connected PV power plants at the scale of countries within the Black Sea catchment. Simulated data are used to determine potential change in climate and land-use according to two different development scenarios. Incident solar radiation flux from re-analyses, spatial interpolation, and the application of the Delta change method are used to assess the current and future solar resource potential within this catchment. Potential sites suitable for PV power plants are selected following a Fuzzy logic approach, and thus the total potential solar energy through PV power generation can be determined. Results show that climate change will have little impact on the solar radiation resource, while land-use change induces more variability. However, regardless of the scenario followed, the solar energy potential is sufficient to provide an interesting contribution to the electricity generation mix of

  15. The Response of Grain Potential Productivity to Land Use Change: A Case Study in Western Jilin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Li

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The impact of land use change on grain potential productivity is one of the most important topics in the research of land use/cover change and its effects. Western Jilin, located on the edge of an ecotone in northern China, and its land use have changed dramatically in recent decades, with significant impact on grain potential productivity. This study evaluated the grain potential productivity in different conditions and analyzed the response to land use change based on land use data, meteorological data and statistical data by using the Global Agro-ecological Zone model. Results showed that (1 grain potential productivity of Western Jilin in 2010 was 19.12 million tons, an increase of 34.8% over 1975 because of changes in land use and in climate; (2 due to land use change, grain potential productivity in the study area increased between 1975 and 2000, however, it decreased between 2000 and 2010; (3 conversion in type of land use and an increase in irrigation percentage caused grain potential productivity to increase by 0.70 million tons and 3.13 million tons respectively between 1975 and 2000; between 2000 and 2010, grain potential productivity had an increase of 0.17 million tons due to the increase in farmland area, but it decreased by 1.88 million tons because the irrigation percentage declined from 36.6% to 24.7%. Therefore, increasing investment in agriculture, improving land quality and increasing the conversion rate of grain potential productivity to actual production would be a better choice for ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable land use.

  16. Evaluating effects of potential changes in streamflow regime on fish and aquatic-invertebrate assemblages in the New Jersey Pinelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennen, Jonathan G.; Riskin, Melissa L.

    2010-01-01

    Changes in water demand associated with population growth and changes in land-use practices in the Pinelands region of southern New Jersey will have a direct effect on stream hydrology. The most pronounced and measurable hydrologic effect is likely to be flow reductions associated with increasing water extraction. Because water-supply needs will continue to grow along with population in the Pinelands area, the goal of maintaining a sustainable balance between the availability of water to protect existing aquatic assemblages while conserving the surficial aquifer for long-term support of human water use needs to be addressed. Although many aquatic fauna have shown resilience and resistance to short-term changes in flows associated with water withdrawals, sustained effects associated with ongoing water-development processes are not well understood. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey sampled forty-three 100-meter-long stream reaches during high- and low-flow periods across a designed hydrologic gradient ranging from small- (4.1 square kilometers (1.6 square miles)) to medium- (66.3 square kilometers (25.6 square miles)) sized Pinelands stream basins. This design, which uses basin size as a surrogate for water availability, provided an opportunity to evaluate the possible effects of potential variation in stream hydrology on fish and aquatic-invertebrate assemblage response in New Jersey Pinelands streams where future water extraction is expected based on known build-out scenarios. Multiple-regression models derived from extracted non-metric multidimensional scaling axis scores of fish and aquatic invertebrates indicate that some variability in aquatic-assemblage composition across the hydrologic gradient is associated with anthropogenic disturbance, such as urbanization, changes in stream chemistry, and concomitant changes in high-flow runoff patterns. To account for such underlying effects in the study models, any flow parameter or assemblage attribute that

  17. Effective Form of Reproducing the Total Financial Potential of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portna Oksana V.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Development of scientific principles of reproducing the total financial potential of the country and its effective form is an urgent problem both in theoretical and practical aspects of the study, the solution of which is intended to ensure the active mobilization and effective use of the total financial potential of Ukraine, and as a result — its expanded reproduction as well, which would contribute to realization of the internal capacities for stabilization of the national economy. The purpose of the article is disclosing the essence of the effective form of reproducing the total financial potential of the country, analyzing the results of reproducing the total financial potential of Ukraine. It has been proved that the basis for the effective form of reproducing the total financial potential of the country is the volume and flow of resources, which are associated with the «real» economy, affect the dynamics of GDP and define it, i.e. resource and process forms of reproducing the total financial potential of Ukraine (which precede the effective one. The analysis of reproducing the total financial potential of Ukraine has shown that in the analyzed period there was an increase in the financial possibilities of the country, but steady dynamics of reduction of the total financial potential was observed. If we consider the amount of resources involved in production, creating a net value added and GDP, it occurs on a restricted basis. Growth of the total financial potential of Ukraine is connected only with extensive quantitative factors rather than intensive qualitative changes.

  18. Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Alison

    2018-03-01

    A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

  19. Interaction potentials and their effect on crystal nucleation and symmetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, C.S.; Rahman, A.

    1979-01-01

    Molecular dynamics technique has been used to study the effect of the interaction potential on crystal nucleation and the symmetry of the nucleated phase. Four systems, namely rubidium, Lennard-Jones, rubidium-truncated, and Lennard-Jones-truncated, have been studied each at reduced density 0.95. Two types of calculations were performed. Firstly, starting from a liquid state, each system was quenched rapidly to a reduced temperature of approx.0.1. The nucleation process for these systems was monitored by studying the time dependence of temperature and the pair correlation function, and the resulting crystalline structure analyzed using among other properties the Voronoi polyhedra. Only in the case of rubidium was a b.c.c. structure nucleated. In the other three cases we obtained a f.c.c. ordering. Secondly, we have studied the effect of changing the interaction potential in a system which has already achieved an ordered state under the action of some other potential. After establishing a b.c.c. structure in a rubidium system, the change in the symmetry of the system was studied when the pair potential was modified to one of the other three forms. The results from both types of calculations are consistent: the rubidium potential leads to a b.c.c. structure while the other three potentials give an f.c.c. structure. Metastable disordered structures were not obtained in any of the calculations. However, the time elapse between the moment when the system is quick-quenched and the moment when nucleation occurs appears to depend upon the potential of interaction

  20. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  1. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Ren-Yan; Kong, Xiao-Quan; Huang, Min-Yi; Varela, Sara; Ji, Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s). Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137-4,124 m to 286-4,396 m in the 2050s or 314-4,448 m in the 2070s), and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  2. The potential effects of climate change on amphibian distribution, range fragmentation and turnover in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ren-Yan Duan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies predict that climate change will cause species movement and turnover, but few have considered the effect of climate change on range fragmentation for current species and/or populations. We used MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, fragmentation and turnover for 134 amphibian species in China under 40 future climate change scenarios spanning four pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 and two time periods (the 2050s and 2070s. Our results show that climate change may cause a major shift in spatial patterns of amphibian diversity. Amphibians in China would lose 20% of their original ranges on average; the distribution outside current ranges would increase by 15%. Suitable habitats for over 90% of species will be located in the north of their current range, for over 95% of species in higher altitudes (from currently 137–4,124 m to 286–4,396 m in the 2050s or 314–4,448 m in the 2070s, and for over 75% of species in the west of their current range. Also, our results predict two different general responses to the climate change: some species contract their ranges while moving westwards, southwards and to higher altitudes, while others expand their ranges. Finally, our analyses indicate that range dynamics and fragmentation are related, which means that the effects of climate change on Chinese amphibians might be two-folded.

  3. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-term data from a small mammal community reveal loss of diversity and potential effects of local climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Simone; Sanchez-Suarez, Cristina; Rouco, Carlos; Palomo, L Javier; Fernández, M Carmen; Kufner, Maura B; Moreno, Sacramento

    2017-10-01

    Climate change affects distribution and persistence of species. However, forecasting species' responses to these changes requires long-term data series that are often lacking in ecological studies. We used 15 years of small mammal trapping data collected between 1978 and 2015 in 3 areas at Doñana National Park (southwest Spain) to (i) describe changes in species composition and (ii) test the association between local climate conditions and size of small mammal populations. Overall, 5 species were captured: wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus , algerian mouse Mus spretus , greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula , garden dormouse Eliomys quercinus , and black rat Rattus rattus . The temporal pattern in the proportion of captures of each species suggests that the small mammal diversity declined with time. Although the larger species (e.g., E. quercinus ), better adapted to colder climate, have disappeared from our trapping records, M. spretus , a small species inhabiting southwest Europe and the Mediterranean coast of Africa, currently is almost the only trapped species. We used 2-level hierarchical models to separate changes in abundance from changes in probability of capture using records of A. sylvaticus in all 3 areas and of M. spretus in 1. We found that heavy rainfall and low temperatures were positively related to abundance of A. sylvaticus , and that the number of extremely hot days was negatively related to abundance of M. spretus . Despite other mechanisms are likely to be involved, our findings support the importance of climate for the distribution and persistence of these species and raise conservation concerns about potential cascading effects in the Doñana ecosystem.

  5. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  6. In Vivo Assessment of the Potential for Renal Bio-Effects from the Vaporization of Perfluorocarbon Phase-Change Contrast Agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyankima, A Gloria; Rojas, Juan D; Cianciolo, Rachel; Johnson, Kennita A; Dayton, Paul A

    2018-02-01

    Low-boiling-point perfluorocarbon phase-change contrast agents (PCCAs) provide an alternative to microbubble contrast agents. Although parameter ranges related to in vivo bio-effects of microbubbles are fairly well characterized, few studies have been done to evaluate the potential of bio-effects related to PCCAs. To bridge this gap, we present an assessment of biological effects (e.g., hemorrhage) related to acoustically excited PCCAs in the rodent kidney. The presence or absence of bio-effects was observed after sonication with various perfluorocarbon core PCCAs (decafluorobutane, octafluoropropane or a 1:1 mixture) and as a function of activation pulse mechanical index (MI; minimum activation threshold, which was a moderate MI of 0.81-1.35 vs. a clinical maximum of 1.9). Bio-effects on renal tissue were assessed through hematology and histology including measurement of blood creatinine levels and the quantity of red blood cell (RBC) casts present in hematoxylin and eosin-stained kidney tissue sections after sonication. Short-term (24 h) and long-term (2 and 4 wk) analyses were performed after treatment. Results indicated that bio-effects from PCCA vaporization were not observed at lower mechanical indices. At higher mechanical indices, bio-effects were observed at 24 h, although these were not observable 2 wk after treatment. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Event-related potentials elicited by pre-attentive emotional changes in temporal context.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomomi Fujimura

    Full Text Available The ability to detect emotional change in the environment is essential for adaptive behavior. The current study investigated whether event-related potentials (ERPs can reflect emotional change in a visual sequence. To assess pre-attentive processing, we examined visual mismatch negativity (vMMN: the negative potentials elicited by a deviant (infrequent stimulus embedded in a sequence of standard (frequent stimuli. Participants in two experiments pre-attentively viewed visual sequences of Japanese kanji with different emotional connotations while ERPs were recorded. The visual sequence in Experiment 1 consisted of neutral standards and two types of emotional deviants with a strong and weak intensity. Although the results indicated that strongly emotional deviants elicited more occipital negativity than neutral standards, it was unclear whether these negativities were derived from emotional deviation in the sequence or from the emotional significance of the deviants themselves. In Experiment 2, the two identical emotional deviants were presented against different emotional standards. One type of deviants was emotionally incongruent with the standard and the other type of deviants was emotionally congruent with the standard. The results indicated that occipital negativities elicited by deviants resulted from perceptual changes in a visual sequence at a latency of 100-200 ms and from emotional changes at latencies of 200-260 ms. Contrary to the results of the ERP experiment, reaction times to deviants showed no effect of emotional context; negative stimuli were consistently detected more rapidly than were positive stimuli. Taken together, the results suggest that brain signals can reflect emotional change in a temporal context.

  8. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  9. Effective pair potentials for spherical nanoparticles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Zon, Ramses

    2009-01-01

    An effective description for rigid spherical nanoparticles in a fluid of point particles is presented. The points inside the nanoparticles and the point particles are assumed to interact via spherically symmetric additive pair potentials, while the distribution of points inside the nanoparticles is taken to be spherically symmetric and smooth. The resulting effective pair interactions between a nanoparticle and a point particle, as well as between two nanoparticles, are then given by spherically symmetric potentials. If overlap between particles is allowed, as can occur for some forms of the pair potentials, the effective potential generally has non-analytic points. It is shown that for each effective potential the expressions for different overlapping cases can be written in terms of one analytic auxiliary potential. Even when only non-overlapping situations are possible, the auxiliary potentials facilitate the formulation of the effective potentials. Effective potentials for hollow nanoparticles (appropriate e.g. for buckyballs) are also considered and shown to be related to those for solid nanoparticles. For hollow nanoparticles overlap is more physical, since this covers the case of a smaller particle embedded in a larger, hollow nanoparticle. Finally, explicit expressions are given for the effective potentials derived from basic pair potentials of power law and exponential form, as well as from the commonly used London–van der Waals, Morse, Buckingham, and Lennard-Jones potentials. The applicability of the latter is demonstrated by comparison with an atomic description of nanoparticles with an internal face centered cubic structure

  10. Modelling the regional effects of climate change on air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giorgi, F.; Meleux, F.

    2007-01-01

    The life cycle of pollutants is affected by chemical as well as meteorological factors, such as wind, temperature, precipitation, solar radiation. Therefore, climatic changes induced by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases may be expected to have significant effects on air quality. Because of the spatial variability of the pollutant emissions and climate-change signals, these effects are particularly relevant at the regional to local scales. This paper first briefly reviews modelling tools and methodologies used to study regional climate-change impacts on air quality. Patterns of regional precipitation, temperature, and sea-level changes emerging from the latest set of general circulation model projections are then discussed. Finally, the specific case of climate-change effects on summer ozone concentrations over Europe is presented to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on pollutant amounts. It is concluded that climate change is an important factor that needs to be taken into account when designing future pollution-reduction policies. (authors)

  11. [Effect of pulse magnetic field on distribution of neuronal action potential].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yu; Cai, Di; Wang, Jin-Hai; Li, Gang; Lin, Ling

    2014-08-25

    The biological effect on the organism generated by magnetic field is widely studied. The present study was aimed to observe the change of sodium channel under magnetic field in neurons. Cortical neurons of Kunming mice were isolated, subjected to 15 Hz, 1 mT pulse magnetic stimulation, and then the currents of neurons were recorded by whole-cell patch clamp. The results showed that, under magnetic stimulation, the activation process of Na(+) channel was delayed, and the inactivation process was accelerated. Given the classic three-layer model, the polarization diagram of cell membrane potential distribution under pulse magnetic field was simulated, and it was found that the membrane potential induced was associated with the frequency and intensity of magnetic field. Also the effect of magnetic field-induced current on action potential was simulated by Hodgkin-Huxley (H-H) model. The result showed that the generation of action potential was delayed, and frequency and the amplitudes were decreased when working current was between -1.32 μA and 0 μA. When the working current was higher than 0 μA, the generation frequency of action potential was increased, and the change of amplitudes was not obvious, and when the working current was lower than -1.32 μA, the time of rising edge and amplitudes of action potential were decreased drastically, and the action potential was unable to generate. These results suggest that the magnetic field simulation can affect the distribution frequency and amplitude of action potential of neuron via sodium channel mediation.

  12. Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

    2010-04-01

    Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

  13. Study on the nonlocality effects for generalized optical potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurbanovich, I.S.; Zelenskaya, N.S.

    1981-01-01

    In previous studies the authors have ihown that the generalized optic potential (GOP) of particles interaction is a superposition of local and non local potentials (LP, NLP). On the example of α- particles scattering on the 8 Be nucleus at about 10-15 MeV the GOP nonlocal part is considered. For obtaining NLP the spectral decomposition of the Green function taking into account only contribution of relative motion of two α-particles in S-state is used. The locally-equivalent addition to central potential of α-particles scattering at 8 Be previously calculated is obtained. In a graphical form a total locally-equivalent potential and local GOP part are presented. It is shown that taking into account the nonlocallity effect in a locally energy approximation for precise wave function in S-state widen a potential hole without changing its depth. Such widening corresponds to the general character of behaviour of non local potentials calculated in the microscopic approach [ru

  14. Lunar Surface Electric Potential Changes Associated with Traversals through the Earth's Foreshock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Michael R.; Hills, H. Kent; Stubbs, Timothy J.; Halekas, Jasper S.; Delory, Gregory T.; Espley, Jared; Farrell, William M.; Freeman, John W.; Vondrak, Richard

    2011-01-01

    We report an analysis of one year of Suprathermal Ion Detector Experiment (SIDE) Total Ion Detector (TID) resonance events observed between January 1972 and January 1973. The study includes only those events during which upstream solar wind conditions were readily available. The analysis shows that these events are associated with lunar traversals through the dawn flank of the terrestrial magnetospheric bow shock. We propose that the events result from an increase in lunar surface electric potential effected by secondary electron emission due to primary electrons in the Earth's foreshock region (although primary ions may play a role as well). This work establishes (1) the lunar surface potential changes as the Moon moves through the terrestrial bow shock, (2) the lunar surface achieves potentials in the upstream foreshock region that differ from those in the downstream magnetosheath region, (3) these differences can be explained by the presence of energetic electron beams in the upstream foreshock region and (4) if this explanation is correct, the location of the Moon with respect to the terrestrial bow shock influences lunar surface potential.

  15. Potential effects of diurnal temperature oscillations on potato late blight with special reference to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakya, S K; Goss, E M; Dufault, N S; van Bruggen, A H C

    2015-02-01

    Global climate change will have effects on diurnal temperature oscillations as well as on average temperatures. Studies on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development have not considered daily temperature oscillations. We hypothesize that growth and development rates of P. infestans would be less influenced by change in average temperature as the magnitude of fluctuations in daily temperatures increases. We investigated the effects of seven constant (10, 12, 15, 17, 20, 23, and 27°C) and diurnally oscillating (±5 and ±10°C) temperatures around the same means on number of lesions, incubation period, latent period, radial lesion growth rate, and sporulation intensity on detached potato leaves inoculated with two P. infestans isolates from clonal lineages US-8 and US-23. A four-parameter thermodynamic model was used to describe relationships between temperature and disease development measurements. Incubation and latency progression accelerated with increasing oscillations at low mean temperatures but slowed down with increasing oscillations at high mean temperatures (P effects of global climate change on disease development.

  16. Effective potentials for twisted fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banach, R.

    1981-01-01

    Minus the density of the effective action, evaluated at the lowest eigenfunction of the (space-time) derivative part of the second (functional) derivative of the classical action, is proposed as a generalised definition of the effective potential, applicable to twisted as well as untwisted sectors of a field theory. The proposal is corroborated by several specific calculations in the twisted sector, namely phi 4 theory (real and complex) and wrong-sign-Gordon theory, in an Einstein cylinder, where the exact integrability of the static solutions confirms the effective potential predictions. Both models exhibit a phase transition, which the effective potential locates, and the one-loop quantum shift in the critical radius is computed for the real phi 4 model, being a universal result. Topological mass generation at the classical level is pointed out, and the exactness of the classical effective potential approximation for complex phi 4 is discussed. (author)

  17. Evaluating climate change mitigation potential of hydrochars: compounding insights from three different indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Owsianiak, Mikołaj; Brooks, Jennifer; Renz, Michael

    2017-01-01

    beet, fava bean, onion and lucerne) and two different countries (Spain and Germany), and used three different indicators of climate change: global warming potential (GWP), global temperature change potential (GTP), and climate tipping potential (CTP). We found that although climate change benefits (GWP......) from just sequestration and temporary storage of carbon are sufficient to outweigh impacts stemming from hydrochar production and transportation to the field, even greater benefits stem from replacing climate-inefficient biowaste management treatment options, like composting in Spain. By contrast...

  18. Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1984-01-01

    Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

  19. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, S M; Samet, J M; Grambsch, A; Ebi, K L; Romieu, I

    2001-05-01

    Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and biogenic emissions and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. Local temperature, precipitation, clouds, atmospheric water vapor, wind speed, and wind direction influence atmospheric chemical processes, and interactions occur between local and global-scale environments. If the climate becomes warmer and more variable, air quality is likely to be affected. However, the specific types of change (i.e., local, regional, or global), the direction of change in a particular location (i.e., positive or negative), and the magnitude of change in air quality that may be attributable to climate change are a matter of speculation, based on extrapolating present understanding to future scenarios. There is already extensive evidence on the health effects of air pollution. Ground-level ozone can exacerbate chronic respiratory diseases and cause short-term reductions in lung function. Exposure to particulate matter can aggravate chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, alter host defenses, damage lung tissue, lead to premature death, and possibly contribute to cancer. Health effects of exposures to carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide can include reduced work capacity, aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases, effects on pulmonary function, respiratory illnesses, lung irritation, and alterations in the lung's defense systems. Adaptations to climate change should include ensuring responsiveness of air quality protection programs to changing pollution levels. Research needs include basic atmospheric science work on the association between weather and air pollutants; improving air pollution models and their linkage with climate change scenarios; and closing gaps in the understanding of exposure patterns and health effects.

  20. Linking flow, water quality and potential effects on aquatic biota ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Linking the potential effects of altered water quality on aquatic biota, that may result from a change in the flow (discharge) regime, is an essential step in the maintenance of riverine ecological functioning. Determination of the environmental flow requirement of a river (as well as other activities, such as classifying the ...

  1. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  2. The acute potentiating effects of back squats on athlete performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crewther, Blair T; Kilduff, Liam P; Cook, Christian J; Middleton, Matt K; Bunce, Paul J; Yang, Guang-Zhong

    2011-12-01

    Crewther, BT, Kilduff, LP, Cook, CJ, Middleton, MK, Bunce, PJ, and Yang, G-Z. The acute potentiating effects of back squats on athlete performance. J Strength Cond Res 25(12): 3319-3325, 2011-This study examined the acute potentiating effects of back squats on athlete performance with a specific focus on movement specificity and the individual timing of potentiation. Nine subelite male rugby players performed 3 protocols on separate occasions using a randomized, crossover, and counterbalanced design. Each protocol consisted of performance testing before a single set of 3 repetition maximum (3RM) back squats, followed by retesting at ∼15 seconds, 4, 8, 12, and 16 minutes. The 3 tests were countermovement jumps (CMJs), sprint performance (5 and 10 m), and 3-m horizontal sled pushes with a 100-kg load. Relationships between the individual changes in salivary testosterone and cortisol concentrations and performance were also examined. The 3RM squats significantly (p squats was found effective in acutely enhancing CMJ height in the study population, especially when the recovery period was individualized for each athlete. The study results also suggest that the potentiating effects of squats may exhibit some degree of movement specificity, being greater for those exercises with similar movement patterns. The current findings have practical implications for prescribing warm-up exercises, individualizing training programs, and for interpreting postactivation potentiation research.

  3. Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Gaiser, Thomas; Liu, Junguo; Wang, Xiuying; Williams, Jimmy; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Much of Africa is among the world’s regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification options in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using an agronomic model, GIS-based EPIC (GEPIC). Fallow and nutrient management options taken into account are (a) conventional intensification with high mineral N supply and a bare fallow, (b) moderate mineral N supply and cowpea rotation, and (c) moderate mineral N supply and rotation with a fast growing N fixing tree Sesbania sesban. The simulations suggest that until the 2040s rotation with Sesbania will lead to an increase in yields due to increasing N supply besides improving water infiltration and soils’ water holding capacity. Intensive cultivation with a bare fallow or an herbaceous crop like cowpea in the rotation is predicted to result in lower yields and increased soil erosion during the same time span. However, yields are projected to decrease in all management scenarios towards the end of the century, should temperature increase beyond critical thresholds. The results suggest that the effect of eco-intensification as a sole means of adapting agriculture to climate change is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. Highly adverse temperatures would rather have to be faced by improved heat tolerant cultivars, while strongly adverse decreases in precipitation would have to be faced by expanding irrigation where feasible. While the evaluation of changes in agro-environmental variables like soil organic carbon, erosion, and soil humidity hints that these are major factors influencing climate change resilience of the field crop, no direct relationship between these factors, crop yields

  4. NUMERICAL STUDY ON COOLING EFFECT POTENTIAL FROM VAPORIZER DEVICE OF LPG VEHICLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MUJI SETIYO

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Over fuel consumption and increased exhaust gas due to the A/C system have become a serious problem. On the other hand, the LPG-fueled vehicle provides potential cooling from LPG phase changes in the vaporizer. Therefore, this article presents the potential cooling effect calculation from 1998 cm3 spark ignition (SI engine. A numerical study is used to calculate the potential heat absorption of latent and sensible heat transfer during LPG is expanded in the vaporizer. Various LPG compositions are also simulated through the engine speed range from 1000 to 6000 rpm. The result shows that the 1998 cm3 engine capable of generating the potential cooling effect of about 1.0 kW at 1000 rpm and a maximum of up to 1.8 kW at 5600 rpm. The potential cooling effects from the LPG vaporizer contributes about 26% to the A/C system works on eco-driving condition.

  5. Assessment of potential greenhouse gas mitigation from changes to crop root mass and architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paustian, Keith [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Campbell, Nell [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Dorich, Chris [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Marx, Ernest [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States); Swan, Amy [Booz Allen Hamiltion Inc., McLean, VA (United States)

    2016-01-29

    Reducing (and eventually reversing) the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to human activities, and thus reducing the extent and severity of anthropogenic climate change, is one of the great challenges facing humanity. While most of the man-caused increase in GHGs has been due to fossil fuel use, land use (including agriculture) currently accounts for about 25% of total GHG emissions and thus there is a need to include emission reductions from the land use sector as part of an effective climate change mitigation strategy. In addition, analyses included in the recent IPCC 5th Climate Change Assessment report suggests that it may not be possible to achieve large enough emissions reductions in the energy, transport and industrial sectors alone to stabilize GHG concentrations at a level commensurate with a less than 2°C global average temperature increase, without the help of a substantial CO2 sink (i.e., atmospheric CO2 removal) from the land use sector. One of the potential carbon sinks that could contribute to this goal is increasing C storage in soil organic matter on managed lands. This report details a preliminary scoping analysis, to assess the potential agricultural area in the US – where appropriate soil, climate and land use conditions exist – to determine the land area on which ‘improved root phenotype’ crops could be deployed and to evaluate the potential long-term soil C storage, given a set of ‘bounding scenarios’ of increased crop root input and/or rooting depth for major crop species (e.g., row crops (corn, sorghum, soybeans), small grains (wheat, barley, oats), and hay and pasture perennial forages). The enhanced root phenotype scenarios assumed 25, 50 and 100% increase in total root C inputs, in combination with five levels of modifying crop root distributions (i.e., no change and four scenarios with increasing downward shift in root distributions). We also analyzed impacts of greater root

  6. Simulated effects of potential withdrawals from wells near Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucce, Patrick; Faunt, Claudia C.

    1999-01-01

    The effects of potential future withdrawals from wells J-12, J-13, and UE-25c number 3 on the ground-water flow system in the area surrounding Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were simulated by using an existing (1997) three-dimensional regional ground-water flow model. The 1997 regional model was modified only to include changes at the pumped wells. Two steady-state simulations (baseline and predictive) were conducted to estimate changes in water level and changes in ground-water outflow from Jackass Flats, where the pumped wells are located, south to the Amargosa Desert

  7. CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

    2015-11-01

    Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  8. The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

    2015-01-01

    The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  9. A tool for evaluating the potential for cost-effective outcomes measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somasekhar MM

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Melinda M Somasekhar1, Alfred Bove2, Chris Rausch1, James Degnan3, Cathy T King1, Arnold Meyer11The Albert J Finestone, MD, Office for Continuing Medical Education, 2Section of Cardiology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 3Measurement and Research Center, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USAAbstract: Cost related to higher-level outcomes measurement is often very high. However, the cost burden is felt even more by smaller, less well-funded continuing medical education (CME programs. It is possible to overcome financial and participant-related barriers to measuring Level 6 outcomes, which are patient health outcomes. The Temple University School of Medicine’s Office for Continuing Medical Education developed a sequential tool for attaining cost-effective outcomes measurement for determining the likelihood of a CME intervention to produce significant changes in physician performance. The appropriate selection of the CME topic and specific practice change indictors drive this tool. This tool walks providers through a simple YES or NO decision-making list that guides them toward an accurate prediction of potential programmatic outcomes. Factors considered during the decision-making process include whether: (a the intended change(s will have a substantial impact on current practice; (b the intended practice change(s are well supported by clinical data, specialty organization/government recommendations, expert opinion, etc; (c the potential change(s affects a large population; (d external factors, such as system pressures, media pressures, financial pressures, patient pressures, safety pressures, etc, are driving this intended change in performance; (e there is a strong motivation on the part of physicians to implement the intended change(s; and (f the intended change(s is relatively easy to implement within any system of practice. If each of these questions can be responded to positively, there is a higher likelihood

  10. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

    2018-04-01

    Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

  11. Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1996-02-01

    While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.

  12. Exercise-induced biochemical changes and their potential influence on cancer: a scientific review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Robert James; Kenfield, Stacey A; Jimenez, Alfonso

    2017-01-01

    Aim To review and discuss the available international literature regarding the indirect and direct biochemical mechanisms that occur after exercise, which could positively, or negatively, influence oncogenic pathways. Methods The PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane libraries were searched for papers up to July 2016 addressing biochemical changes after exercise with a particular reference to cancer. The three authors independently assessed their appropriateness for inclusion in this review based on their scientific quality and relevance. Results 168 papers were selected and categorised into indirect and direct biochemical pathways. The indirect effects included changes in vitamin D, weight reduction, sunlight exposure and improved mood. The direct effects included insulin-like growth factor, epigenetic effects on gene expression and DNA repair, vasoactive intestinal peptide, oxidative stress and antioxidant pathways, heat shock proteins, testosterone, irisin, immunity, chronic inflammation and prostaglandins, energy metabolism and insulin resistance. Summary Exercise is one of several lifestyle factors known to lower the risk of developing cancer and is associated with lower relapse rates and better survival. This review highlights the numerous biochemical processes, which explain these potential anticancer benefits. PMID:27993842

  13. Forest policy implications of climate change: Economic impacts and potential mitigation strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodges, D.G.; Belli, K.L.; Watson, W.F.; Regens, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    Increasing mean global temperatures due to rising levels of carbon dioxide and other ''greenhouse'' gases in the atmosphere could affect the distribution of commercially important forests in North America significantly. The temperature increases might outpace the ability of forests to adapt, causing considerable stress and mortality to trees in the southern part of their range without a commensurate increase in growth across the expanding range. If realized, these potential biological impacts on forest distribution and health would affect management decisions substantially and could adversely impact forest-based economies in the United States. Specific effects on forest management include changes in the methods and costs of fire, insect, and disease protection; greater demands on forest lands for conversion to food production; and uncertain changes in site quality. One means of mitigating the effects of CO 2 emissions is to establish tree plantations for carbon sequestration. Preliminary analyses suggest that a program aimed at marginal cropland in the South could store more than 563 million tons of carbon over 45 years, although 90 million tons would be lost due to risks associated with plantations

  14. Benthic N2 fixation in coral reefs and the potential effects of human-induced environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardini, Ulisse; Bednarz, Vanessa N; Foster, Rachel A; Wild, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Tropical coral reefs are among the most productive and diverse ecosystems, despite being surrounded by ocean waters where nutrients are in short supply. Benthic dinitrogen (N2) fixation is a significant internal source of “new” nitrogen (N) in reef ecosystems, but related information appears to be sparse. Here, we review the current state (and gaps) of knowledge on N2 fixation associated with coral reef organisms and their ecosystems. By summarizing the existing literature, we show that benthic N2 fixation is an omnipresent process in tropical reef environments. Highest N2 fixation rates are detected in reef-associated cyanobacterial mats and sea grass meadows, clearly showing the significance of these functional groups, if present, to the input of new N in reef ecosystems. Nonetheless, key benthic organisms such as hard corals also importantly contribute to benthic N2 fixation in the reef. Given the usually high coral coverage of healthy reef systems, these results indicate that benthic symbiotic associations may be more important than previously thought. In fact, mutualisms between carbon (C) and N2 fixers have likely evolved that may enable reef communities to mitigate N limitation. We then explore the potential effects of the increasing human interferences on the process of benthic reef N2 fixation via changes in diazotrophic populations, enzymatic activities, or availability of benthic substrates favorable to these microorganisms. Current knowledge indicates positive effects of ocean acidification, warming, and deoxygenation and negative effects of increased ultraviolet radiation on the amount of N fixed in coral reefs. Eutrophication may either boost or suppress N2 fixation, depending on the nutrient becoming limiting. As N2 fixation appears to play a fundamental role in nutrient-limited reef ecosystems, these assumptions need to be expanded and confirmed by future research efforts addressing the knowledge gaps identified in this review. PMID:24967086

  15. Vulnerability and adaptation to potential impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O.; Kariuki, J.G.; Mbuthi, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Climate in Kenya is controlled by the seasonal southward and northward movements of the Inter-Tropical Convergence zone (ITCZ).The effects of ITCZ produces two rainy seasons namely the 'long rains' in April/May and the 'short rains' in October/November. Following the build up of greenhouse gases such as carborn dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, a variety of changes is expected in climatic conditions. The study analyses the sensivity of the lower Tana Basin to climate change while specific objectives include: to determine the effects of climate change on water supply in Tana River Basin; to assess the posible effect of climate change on the ground water resourse in the basin; to make some suggestions on possible adaptation measures that may be adopted to cope with the possible impacts of climate change for the Tana Basin

  16. Dynamic monitoring of transmembrane potential changes: a study of ion channels using an electrical double layer-gated FET biosensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulikkathodi, Anil Kumar; Sarangadharan, Indu; Chen, Yi-Hong; Lee, Geng-Yen; Chyi, Jen-Inn; Lee, Gwo-Bin; Wang, Yu-Lin

    2018-03-27

    In this research, we have designed, fabricated and characterized an electrical double layer (EDL)-gated AlGaN/GaN high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) biosensor array to study the transmembrane potential changes of cells. The sensor array platform is designed to detect and count circulating tumor cells (CTCs) of colorectal cancer (CRC) and investigate cellular bioelectric signals. Using the EDL FET biosensor platform, cellular responses can be studied in physiological salt concentrations, thereby eliminating complex automation. Upon investigation, we discovered that our sensor response follows the transmembrane potential changes of captured cells. Our whole cell sensor platform can be used to monitor the dynamic changes in the membrane potential of cells. The effects of continuously changing electrolyte ion concentrations and ion channel blocking using cadmium are investigated. This methodology has the potential to be used as an electrophysiological probe for studying ion channel gating and the interaction of biomolecules in cells. The sensor can also be a point-of-care diagnostic tool for rapid screening of diseases.

  17. Changes in cognitive control in pre-manifest Huntington's disease examined using pre-saccadic EEG potentials - a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ness, Vanessa; Bestgen, Anne-Kathrin; Saft, Carsten; Beste, Christian

    2014-01-01

    It is well-known that Huntington's disease (HD) affects saccadic processing. However, saccadic dysfunctions in HD may be seen as a result of dysfunctional processes occurring at the oculomotor level prior to the execution of saccades, i.e., at a pre-saccadic level. Virtually nothing is known about possible changes in pre-saccadic processes in HD. This study examines pre-saccadic processing in pre-manifest HD gene mutation carriers (pre-HDs) by using clinically available EEG measures. Error rates, pre-saccadic EEG potentials and saccade onset EEG potentials were measured in 14 pre-HDs and case-matched controls performing prosaccades and antisaccades in a longitudinal study over a 15-month period. The results show that pre-saccadic potentials were changed in pre-HDs, relative to controls and also revealed changes across the 15-month longitudinal period. In particular, pre-saccadic ERP in pre-HDs were characterized by lower amplitudes and longer latencies, which revealed longitudinal changes. These changes were observed for anti-saccades, but not for pro-saccades. Overt saccadic trajectories (potentials) were not different to those in controls, showing that pre-saccadic processes are sensitive to subtle changes in fronto-striatal networks in pre-HDs. Deficits in pre-saccadic processes prior the execution of an erroneous anti-saccade can be seen as an effect of dysfunctional cognitive control in HD. This may underlie saccadic abnormalities and hence a major phenotype of HD. Pre-saccadic EEG potentials preceding erroneous anti-saccades are sensitive to pre-manifest disease progression in HD.

  18. [Effect of the medium redox potential on the growth and metabolism of anaerobic bacteria].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilian, A; Trchunian, A

    2008-01-01

    Based on the available literature data on a decrease in the redox potential of medium to low negative values and a decrease in pH during the growth of sugar-fermenting anaerobic bacteria, it was concluded that these processes cannot be described by the theory of redox potential. A theory was developed according to which the regulation of bacterial metabolism is accomplished through changes in the redox potential. The theory considers the redox potential as a factor determining the growth of anaerobic bacteria, which is regulated by oxidizers and reducers. The assumption is put forward that, under anaerobic conditions, bacteria are sensitive to changes in the redox potential and have a redox taxis. The effect of the redox potential on the transport of protons and other substances through membranes and the activity of membrane-bound enzymes, including the proton F1-F0-ATPase, whose mechanisms of action involve changes in the proton conductance of the membrane, the generation of proton-driving force, and dithiol-disulfide transitions in proteins was studied.

  19. Effect of quantity and composition of waste on the prediction of annual methane potential from landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Han Sang; Moon, Hee Sun; Kim, Jae Young

    2012-04-01

    A study was conducted to investigate the effect of waste composition change on the methane production in landfills. An empirical equation for the methane potential of the mixed waste is derived based on the methane potential values of individual waste components and the compositional ratio of waste components. A correction factor was introduced in the equation and was determined from the BMP and lysimeter tests. The equation and LandGEM were applied for a full size landfill and the annual methane potential was estimated. Results showed that the changes in quantity of waste affected the annual methane potential from the landfill more than the changes of waste composition. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Action Research’s Potential to Foster Institutional Change for Urban Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrios Zikos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the potential of action research to meet the challenges entailed in institutional design for urban water management. Our overall aim is to briefly present action research and discuss its methodological merits with regard to the challenges posed by the different conceptual bases for extrapolating the effects of institutional design on institutional change. Thus, our aim is to explore how Action Research meets the challenge of scoping the field in an open fashion for determining the appropriate mechanisms of institutional change and supporting the emerging of new water institutions. To accomplish this aim, we select the Water Framework Directive (WFD as an illustrative driving force requiring changes in water management practices and implying the need for the emergence of new institutions. We employ a case of urban water management in the Volos Metropolitan Area, part of the Thessaly region in Greece, where a Pilot River Basin Plan was implemented. By applying action research and being involved in a long process of interaction between stakeholders, we examine the emergence of new institutions dealing with urban water management under the general principles of the major driving force for change: the WFD.

  1. Recording membrane potential changes through photoacoustic voltage sensitive dye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haichong K.; Kang, Jeeun; Yan, Ping; Abou, Diane S.; Le, Hanh N. D.; Thorek, Daniel L. J.; Kang, Jin U.; Gjedde, Albert; Rahmim, Arman; Wong, Dean F.; Loew, Leslie M.; Boctor, Emad M.

    2017-03-01

    Monitoring of the membrane potential is possible using voltage sensitive dyes (VSD), where fluorescence intensity changes in response to neuronal electrical activity. However, fluorescence imaging is limited by depth of penetration and high scattering losses, which leads to low sensitivity in vivo systems for external detection. In contrast, photoacoustic (PA) imaging, an emerging modality, is capable of deep tissue, noninvasive imaging by combining near infrared light excitation and ultrasound detection. In this work, we develop the theoretical concept whereby the voltage-dependent quenching of dye fluorescence leads to a reciprocal enhancement of PA intensity. Based on this concept, we synthesized a novel near infrared photoacoustic VSD (PA-VSD) whose PA intensity change is sensitive to membrane potential. In the polarized state, this cyanine-based probe enhances PA intensity while decreasing fluorescence output in a lipid vesicle membrane model. With a 3-9 μM VSD concentration, we measured a PA signal increase in the range of 5.3 % to 18.1 %, and observed a corresponding signal reduction in fluorescence emission of 30.0 % to 48.7 %. A theoretical model successfully accounts for how the experimental PA intensity change depends on fluorescence and absorbance properties of the dye. These results not only demonstrate the voltage sensing capability of the dye, but also indicate the necessity of considering both fluorescence and absorbance spectral sensitivities in order to optimize the characteristics of improved photoacoustic probes. Together, our results demonstrate photoacoustic sensing as a potential new modality for sub-second recording and external imaging of electrophysiological and neurochemical events in the brain.

  2. Identifying potential effects of climate change on the development of water resources in Pinios River Basin, Central Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, G.; Panagopoulos, A.; Pisinaras, V.; Tziritis, E.; Wendland, F.

    2018-05-01

    The aim of the present study is to assess the future spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and temperature, and relate the corresponding change to water resources' quantitative status in Pinios River Basin (PRB), Thessaly, Greece. For this purpose, data from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the periods 2021-2100 driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs) were collected and bias-correction was performed based on linear scaling method. The bias-correction was made based on monthly precipitation and temperature data collected for the period 1981-2000 from 57 meteorological stations in total. The results indicate a general trend according to which precipitation is decreasing whilst temperature is increasing to an extent that varies depending on each particular RCM-GCM output. On the average, annual precipitation change for the period 2021-2100 was about - 80 mm, ranging between - 149 and + 35 mm, while the corresponding change for temperature was 2.81 °C, ranging between 1.48 and 3.72 °C. The investigation of potential impacts to the water resources demonstrates that water availability is expected to be significantly decreased in the already water-stressed PRB. The water stresses identified are related to the potential decreasing trend in groundwater recharge and the increasing trend in irrigation demand, which constitutes the major water consumer in PRB.

  3. Cognitive Effects of Air Pollution Exposures and Potential Mechanistic Underpinnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, J L; Klocke, C; Morris-Schaffer, K; Conrad, K; Sobolewski, M; Cory-Slechta, D A

    2017-06-01

    This review sought to address the potential for air pollutants to impair cognition and mechanisms by which that might occur. Air pollution has been associated with deficits in cognitive functions across a wide range of epidemiological studies, both with developmental and adult exposures. Studies in animal models are significantly more limited in number, with somewhat inconsistent findings to date for measures of learning, but show more consistent impairments for short-term memory. Potential contributory mechanisms include oxidative stress/inflammation, altered levels of dopamine and/or glutamate, and changes in synaptic plasticity/structure. Epidemiological studies are consistent with adverse effects of air pollutants on cognition, but additional studies and better phenotypic characterization are needed for animal models, including more precise delineation of specific components of cognition that are affected, as well as definitions of critical exposure periods for such effects and the components of air pollution responsible. This would permit development of more circumscribed hypotheses as to potential behavioral and neurobiological mechanisms.

  4. The potential impacts of climate change on hydropower: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... Climate change has the potential to affect hydropower generation by either increasing or ... Hence, proper adaptation measures such as standby alternative sources of energy and ... should be exploited to ensure electric power is available throughout the year, ...

  5. Potential impact of global climate change on benthic deep-sea microbes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danovaro, Roberto; Corinaldesi, Cinzia; Dell'Anno, Antonio; Rastelli, Eugenio

    2017-12-15

    Benthic deep-sea environments are the largest ecosystem on Earth, covering ∼65% of the Earth surface. Microbes inhabiting this huge biome at all water depths represent the most abundant biological components and a relevant portion of the biomass of the biosphere, and play a crucial role in global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing evidence suggests that global climate changes are affecting also deep-sea ecosystems, both directly (causing shifts in bottom-water temperature, oxygen concentration and pH) and indirectly (through changes in surface oceans' productivity and in the consequent export of organic matter to the seafloor). However, the responses of the benthic deep-sea biota to such shifts remain largely unknown. This applies particularly to deep-sea microbes, which include bacteria, archaea, microeukaryotes and their viruses. Understanding the potential impacts of global change on the benthic deep-sea microbial assemblages and the consequences on the functioning of the ocean interior is a priority to better forecast the potential consequences at global scale. Here we explore the potential changes in the benthic deep-sea microbiology expected in the coming decades using case studies on specific systems used as test models. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Vulnerability of roads and associated structures to the effects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arisz, H.; Therrien, M.; Burrell, B.C.; LeBlanc, M.M.

    2009-01-01

    The vulnerability of roads and associated structures in the City of Greater Sudbury to the effects of climate change was evaluated using the Public Infrastructure Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Engineering Protocol for Climate Change Infrastructure Assessment. Study objectives were to evaluate the vulnerability of road-related infrastructure in Greater Sudbury to climate change, and to identify potential impediments to the application of the protocol in other municipalities. Based on the experience gained during this study, recommendations were provided with respect to the vulnerabilities of roads and associated structures to the predicted effects of climate change and the performance of vulnerability assessments. (author)

  7. Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

  8. Potential effects of climate change on streambed scour and risks to salmonid survival in snow-dominated mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaime R. Goode; John M. Buffington; Daniele Tonina; Daniel J. Isaak; Russell F. Thurow; Seth Wenger; David Nagel; Charlie Luce; Doerthe Tetzlaff; Chris Soulsby

    2013-01-01

    Snowmelt-dominated basins in northern latitudes provide critical habitat for salmonids. As such, these systems may be especially vulnerable to climate change because of potential shifts in the frequency, magnitude, and timing of flows that can scour incubating embryos. A general framework is presented to examine this issue, using a series of physical models that link...

  9. Effect of organisational change type and frequency on long-term sickness absence in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstrøm, Vilde H; Kjekshus, Lars Erik

    2015-09-01

    The present study was conducted to investigate how the frequency of structural change and patient care-related change is related to employees' long-term sickness absence. Although a growing body of research is investigating the potentially harmful effects of organisational change on employee health, most studies have focused on single episodes of organisational change and do not differentiate among the types and frequencies of change. National registry data were collected from 2005 and 2007. A total of 34 712 health professionals from 56 hospitals were included (76% nurses, 18% physicians and 6% other health professionals) and the data were analysed using multilevel logistic regression. The research findings reveal a significantly higher probability of long-term sickness absence among employees who experienced more frequent structural changes (OR = 1.03; CI: 1.00-1.06; P changes. A higher frequency of organisational change may lead to more sickness-related absence among employees, with the effect depending on the type of change. These findings highlight the need for managers who are contemplating or are in the process of implementing organisational change to become more aware of the potentially harmful effects of frequent organisational change on employee health. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on U.S. Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues ...

  11. The potential impacts of climate change on hydropower: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osborne

    Climate change has the potential to affect hydropower generation by either increasing or reducing flows (discharge) and the head. .... evapotranspiration levels thus reducing the runoff. (Harrison et al., 1998). Therefore .... The discharge rates are determined by factors such as climate, vegetation, soil type, drainage basin ...

  12. Inorganic carbon acquisition in potentially toxic and non-toxic diatoms: the effect of pH-induced changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trimborn, S; Lundholm, Nina; Thoms, S

    2008-01-01

    . In terms of carbon source, all species took up both CO2 and HCO3-. K-1/2 values for inorganic carbon uptake decreased with increasing pH in two species, while in N. navis-varingica apparent affinities did not change. While the contribution of HCO3- to net fixation was more than 85% in S. stellaris......The effects of pH-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry on inorganic carbon (C-i) acquisition and domoic acid (DA) production were studied in two potentially toxic diatom species, Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries and Nitzschia navis-varingica, and the non-toxic Stellarima stellaris. In vivo...... activities of carbonic anhydrase (CA), photosynthetic O-2 evolution and CO2 and HCO3- uptake rates were measured by membrane inlet MS in cells acclimated to low (7.9) and high pH (8.4 or 8.9). Species-specific differences in the mode of carbon acquisition were found. While extracellular carbonic anhydrase (e...

  13. Changes in plasma osmolality and anion gap: potential predictors of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Changes in plasma osmolality and anion gap: potential predictors of ... PROMOTING ACCESS TO AFRICAN RESEARCH ... Objective: To determine the relationship of mortality to plasma osmolality and anion gap inpatients on haemodialysis.

  14. Potential for adaptation to climate change in a coral reef fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munday, Philip L; Donelson, Jennifer M; Domingos, Jose A

    2017-01-01

    Predicting the impacts of climate change requires knowledge of the potential to adapt to rising temperatures, which is unknown for most species. Adaptive potential may be especially important in tropical species that have narrow thermal ranges and live close to their thermal optimum. We used the animal model to estimate heritability, genotype by environment interactions and nongenetic maternal components of phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits in the coral reef damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Offspring of wild-caught breeding pairs were reared for two generations at current-day and two elevated temperature treatments (+1.5 and +3.0 °C) consistent with climate change projections. Length, weight, body condition and metabolic traits (resting and maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope) were measured at four stages of juvenile development. Additive genetic variation was low for length and weight at 0 and 15 days posthatching (dph), but increased significantly at 30 dph. By contrast, nongenetic maternal effects on length, weight and body condition were high at 0 and 15 dph and became weaker at 30 dph. Metabolic traits, including net aerobic scope, exhibited high heritability at 90 dph. Furthermore, significant genotype x environment interactions indicated potential for adaptation of maximum metabolic rate and net aerobic scope at higher temperatures. Net aerobic scope was negatively correlated with weight, indicating that any adaptation of metabolic traits at higher temperatures could be accompanied by a reduction in body size. Finally, estimated breeding values for metabolic traits in F2 offspring were significantly affected by the parental rearing environment. Breeding values at higher temperatures were highest for transgenerationally acclimated fish, suggesting a possible role for epigenetic mechanisms in adaptive responses of metabolic traits. These results indicate a high potential for adaptation of aerobic scope to higher temperatures

  15. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

    2010-11-01

    Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

  16. Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

    2018-05-01

    The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

  17. A tool for evaluating the potential for cost-effective outcomes measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somasekhar, Melinda M; Bove, Alfred; Rausch, Chris; Degnan, James; King, Cathy T; Meyer, Arnold

    2012-01-01

    Cost related to higher-level outcomes measurement is often very high. However, the cost burden is felt even more by smaller, less well-funded continuing medical education (CME) programs. It is possible to overcome financial and participant-related barriers to measuring Level 6 outcomes, which are patient health outcomes. The Temple University School of Medicine's Office for Continuing Medical Education developed a sequential tool for attaining cost-effective outcomes measurement for determining the likelihood of a CME intervention to produce significant changes in physician performance. The appropriate selection of the CME topic and specific practice change indictors drive this tool. This tool walks providers through a simple YES or NO decision-making list that guides them toward an accurate prediction of potential programmatic outcomes. Factors considered during the decision-making process include whether: (a) the intended change(s) will have a substantial impact on current practice; (b) the intended practice change(s) are well supported by clinical data, specialty organization/government recommendations, expert opinion, etc; (c) the potential change(s) affects a large population; (d) external factors, such as system pressures, media pressures, financial pressures, patient pressures, safety pressures, etc, are driving this intended change in performance; (e) there is a strong motivation on the part of physicians to implement the intended change(s); and (f) the intended change(s) is relatively easy to implement within any system of practice. If each of these questions can be responded to positively, there is a higher likelihood that the intended practice-related change(s) will occur. Such change can be measured using a simpler and less costly methodology.

  18. Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower and Power Marketing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sale, Michael J [ORNL; Kao, Shih-Chieh [ORNL; Uria Martinez, Rocio [ORNL; Wei, Yaxing [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is currently preparing an assessment of the effects of climate change on federal hydropower, as directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the Secure Water Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-11). This paper describes the assessment approach being used in a Report to Congress currently being prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The 9505 assessment will examine climate change effects on water available for hydropower operations and the future power supplies marketed from federal hydropower projects. It will also include recommendations from the Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) on potential changes in operation or contracting practices that could address these effects and risks of climate change. Potential adaption and mitigation strategies will also be identified. Federal hydropower comprises approximately half of the U.S. hydropower portfolio. The results from the 9505 assessment will promote better understanding among federal dam owners/operators of the sensitivity of their facilities to water availability, and it will provide a basis for planning future actions that will enable adaptation to climate variability and change. The end-users of information are Congressional members, their staff, the PMAs and their customers, federal dam owners/operators, and the DOE Water Power Program.

  19. A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

    2012-01-01

    Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

  20. Besitzt Mentoring kultur- und strukturverändernde Potenziale? Does Mentoring have Cultural and Structural Changing Potential?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Astrid Franzke

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Während Mentoring bislang hinsichtlich seiner individuellen Effekte vor allem in theoretischen Arbeiten untersucht und in Evaluationsstudien empirisch ausgewertet worden ist, fragen die Herausgeberinnen nach den kultur- und strukturverändernden Potenzialen durch Mentoring im universitären Feld.Theoretical surveys have examined the individual effects of mentoring and evaluative studies have empirically analyzed these effects. However, the editors inquire into the cultural and structural changing potential of mentoring for the university field.

  1. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

    2010-01-01

    As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth...

  2. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Treeline Position in the Swedish Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Moen

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may strongly influence species distribution and, thus, the structure and function of ecosystems. This paper describes simulated changes in the position of the upper treeline in the Swedish mountains in response to predicted climate change. Data on predicted summer temperature changes, the current position of the treeline, and a digital elevation model were used to predict the position of the treeline over a 100-year timeframe. The results show the treeline advancing upward by 233-667 m, depending on the climate scenario used and location within the mountain chain. Such changes hypothetically caused a 75-85% reduction in treeless alpine heaths, with 60-93% of the remaining areas being scree slopes and boulder fields. For this change to occur, the migration rate of the trees would be in the order of 23-221 m yr-1, which is well within published migration rates for wind-dispersed deciduous trees. The remaining alpine areas would be strongly fragmented. These drastic changes would influence all aspects of mountain ecosystems, including biodiversity conservation and human land-use patterns.

  3. Future changes in global warming potentials under representative concentration pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reisinger, Andy [New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, PO Box 10002, Wellington 6143 (New Zealand); Meinshausen, Malte [Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany); Manning, Martin, E-mail: andy.reisinger@nzagrc.org.nz [Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand)

    2011-04-15

    Global warming potentials (GWPs) are the metrics currently used to compare emissions of different greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Future changes in greenhouse gas concentrations will alter GWPs because the radiative efficiencies of marginal changes in CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O depend on their background concentrations, the removal of CO{sub 2} is influenced by climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, and atmospheric residence times of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O also depend on ambient temperature and other environmental changes. We calculated the currently foreseeable future changes in the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2}, which acts as the denominator for the calculation of all GWPs, and specifically the GWPs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, along four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) up to the year 2100. We find that the absolute GWP of CO{sub 2} decreases under all RCPs, although for longer time horizons this decrease is smaller than for short time horizons due to increased climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. The 100-year GWP of CH{sub 4} would increase up to 20% under the lowest RCP by 2100 but would decrease by up to 10% by mid-century under the highest RCP. The 100-year GWP of N{sub 2}O would increase by more than 30% by 2100 under the highest RCP but would vary by less than 10% under other scenarios. These changes are not negligible but are mostly smaller than the changes that would result from choosing a different time horizon for GWPs, or from choosing altogether different metrics for comparing greenhouse gas emissions, such as global temperature change potentials.

  4. Potential future impacts of climatic change on the Great Plains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1991-01-01

    A synopsis is provided of approaches to impact studies in the Great Plains, findings from studies of future impacts are summarized, and opportunities for enhancing understanding of future impacts are discussed. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources, forestry, recreation/tourism, and energy are summarized. Impact analyses need to look more rigorously at variability in climate, the probabilities of various climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of social and economic activities to climatic variability. Most economic impact studies have assumed no adaptive behavior on the part of economic decision makers. Credible impact assessments require an improved understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of sectors to climatic conditions, particularly variability. The energy sector in the Great Plains region is likely to be more sensitive to political developments in the Middle East than to climatic variability and change. Speculation and analysis of climate impacts have focused on supply conditions and demands, yet the sector is more keenly sensitive to policy implications of climatic change, such as the potential for fossil fuel taxes or other legislative or pricing constraints. 28 refs

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Seagrass Meadows and Macroalgal Forests: An Integrative Perspective on Acclimation and Adaptation Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Duarte

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Marine macrophytes are the foundation of algal forests and seagrass meadows–some of the most productive and diverse coastal marine ecosystems on the planet. These ecosystems provide nursery grounds and food for fish and invertebrates, coastline protection from erosion, carbon sequestration, and nutrient fixation. For marine macrophytes, temperature is generally the most important range limiting factor, and ocean warming is considered the most severe threat among global climate change factors. Ocean warming induced losses of dominant macrophytes along their equatorial range edges, as well as range extensions into polar regions, are predicted and already documented. While adaptive evolution based on genetic change is considered too slow to keep pace with the increasing rate of anthropogenic environmental changes, rapid adaptation may come about through a set of non-genetic mechanisms involving the functional composition of the associated microbiome, as well as epigenetic modification of the genome and its regulatory effect on gene expression and the activity of transposable elements. While research in terrestrial plants demonstrates that the integration of non-genetic mechanisms provide a more holistic picture of a species' evolutionary potential, research in marine systems is lagging behind. Here, we aim to review the potential of marine macrophytes to acclimatize and adapt to major climate change effects via intraspecific variation at the genetic, epigenetic, and microbiome levels. All three levels create phenotypic variation that may either enhance fitness within individuals (plasticity or be subject to selection and ultimately, adaptation. We review three of the most important phenotypic variations in a climate change context, including physiological variation, variation in propagation success, and in herbivore resistance. Integrating different levels of plasticity, and adaptability into ecological models will allow to obtain a more holistic

  6. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

    2008-05-01

    Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.

  7. Global Responses to Potential Climate Change: A Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Mary Louise; Mowry, George

    This interdisciplinary five-day unit provides students with an understanding of the issues in the debate on global climate change. Introductory lessons enhance understanding of the "greenhouse gases" and their sources with possible global effects of climate change. Students then roleplay negotiators from 10 nations in a simulation of the…

  8. Effects of climate change on timber supply and possible management responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comeau, P.G.

    1991-01-01

    Potential effects of climate change on Pacific Northwest forests include increases in net primary production of some high-elevation or high-latitude forests due to temperature increases; reduced net primary production or tree mortality due to increased water stress or failure to meet chilling requirements; and increased risk of damage from insects and fires. The net effects of climate change will vary depending on the species involved, current environmental conditions, and the nature, magnitude, and rate of climate change. Risks are likely to differ substantially for regeneration, young established forests, and mature established forests. Decisions about responses have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty about future climate, resources, and market conditions. A proactive option involves developing flexible, adaptive approaches to forest management that serve to reduce future risk. Strategic decisions could include decisions about land purchases or sales based on assessments of risk of impact from climate change. Selection of species least vulnerable to potential climate change, increased investment in fire control and pest management in vulnerable areas, and other operational decisions can be made. Timing of actions will be important, and a substantial body of information is required as a basis for making informed decisions, some of which is already available. 8 refs

  9. A simulation for predicting potential cooling effect on LPG-fuelled vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyo, M.; Soeparman, S.; Wahyudi, S.; Hamidi, N.

    2016-03-01

    Liquefied Petroleum Gas vehicles (LPG Vehicles) provide a potential cooling effect about 430 kJ/kg LPG consumption. This cooling effect is obtained from the LPG phase change from liquid to vapor in the vaporizer. In the existing system, energy to evaporate LPG is obtained from the coolant which is circulated around the vaporizer. One advantage is that the LPG (70/30 propane / butane) when expanded from 8 bar to at 1.2 bar, the temperature is less than -25 °C. These conditions provide opportunities to evaporate LPG with ambient air flow, then produce a cooling effect for cooling car's cabin. In this study, some LPG mix was investigated to determine the optimum condition. A simulation was carried out to estimate potential cooling effects of 2000 cc engine from 1000 rpm to 6000 rpm. In this case, the mass flow rate of LPG is a function of fuel consumption. The simulation result shows that the LPG (70/30 propane/butane) provide the greatest cooling effect compared with other mixtures. In conclusion, the 2000 cc engine fueled LPG at 3000 rpm provides potential cooling effect more than 1.3 kW, despite in the low engine speed (1000 rpm) only provides about 0.5 kW.

  10. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marianne V. Moore; Michael L. Pace; John R. Mather; [and others; [Editor’s note: Patricia A. Flebbe is the SRS co-author for this publication.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests, and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and...

  11. Polaron effects on nonlinear optical rectification in asymmetrical Gaussian potential quantum wells with applied electric fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jinghe; Guo, Kangxian; Liu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    Polaron effects on nonlinear optical rectification in asymmetrical Gaussian potential quantum wells are studied by the effective mass approximation and the perturbation theory. The numerical results show that nonlinear optical rectification coefficients are strongly dependent on the barrier hight V 0 of the Gaussian potential quantum wells, the range L of the confinement potential and the electric field F. Besides, the numerical results show that no matter how V 0 , L and F change, taking into consideration polaron effects, the optical rectification coefficients χ 0 (2) get greatly enhanced.

  12. Complex modulation by stress of the effect of seizures on long term potentiation in mouse hippocampal slices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Nicola; Shavit Stein, Efrat; Segal, Menahem

    2017-08-01

    Stress has a profound effect on ability to express neuronal plasticity, learning, and memory. Likewise, epileptic seizures lead to massive changes in brain connectivity, and in ability to undergo long term changes in reactivity to afferent stimulation. In this study, we analyzed possible long lasting interactions between a stressful experience and reactivity to pilocarpine, on the ability to produce long term potentiation (LTP) in a mouse hippocampus. Pilocarpine lowers paired pulse potentiation as well as LTP in CA1 region of the mouse hippocampal slice. When stress experience precedes exposure to pilocarpine, it protects the brain from the lasting effect of pilocarpine. When stress follows pilocarpine, it exacerbates the effect of the drug, to produce a long lasting reduction in LTP. These changes are accompanied by a parallel change in blood corticosterone level. A single exposure to selective mineralo- or gluco-corticosterone (MR and GR, respectively) agonists and antagonists can mimic the stress effects, indicating that GR's underlie the lasting detrimental effects of stress whereas MRs are instrumental in counteracting the effects of stress. These studies open a new avenue of understanding of the interactive effects of stress and epileptic seizures on brain plasticity. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Could piracetam potentiate behavioural effects of psychostimulants?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slais, Karel; Machalova, Alena; Landa, Leos; Vrskova, Dagmar; Sulcova, Alexandra

    2012-08-01

    Press and internet reports mention abuse of nootropic drug piracetam (PIR) in combination with psychostimulants methamphetamine (MET) or 4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). These combinations are believed to produce more profound desirable effects, while decreasing hangover. However, there is a lack of valid experimental studies on such drug-drug interactions in the scientific literature available. Our hypothesis proposes that a functional interaction exists between PIR and amphetamine psychostimulants (MET and MDMA) which can potentiate psychostimulant behavioural effects. Our hypothesis is supported by the results of our pilot experiment testing acute effects of drugs given to mice intraperitoneally (Vehicle, n=12; MET 2.5mg/kg, n=10; MDMA 2.5mg/kg, n=11; PIR 300 mg/kg, n=12; PIR+MET, n=12; PIR+MDMA, n=11) in the Open Field Test (Actitrack, Panlab, Spain). PIR given alone caused no significant changes in mouse locomotor/exploratory behaviour, whereas the same dose combined with either MET or MDMA significantly enhanced their stimulatory effects. Different possible neurobiological mechanism underlying drug-drug interaction of PIR with MET or MDMA are discussed, as modulation of dopaminergic, glutamatergic or cholinergic brain systems. However, the interaction with membrane phospholipids seems as the most plausible mechanism explaining PIR action on activities of neurotransmitter systems. Despite that our behavioural experiment cannot serve for explanation of the pharmacological mechanisms of these functional interactions, it shows that PIR effects can increase behavioural stimulation of amphetamine drugs. Thus, the reported combining of PIR with MET or MDMA by human abusers is not perhaps a coincidental phenomenon and may be based on existing PIR potential to intensify acute psychostimulant effects of these drugs of abuse. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

    2018-01-01

    Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

  15. Global change-driven effects on dissolved organic matter composition: Implications for food webs of northern lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creed, Irena F; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Trick, Charles G; Grimm, Nancy B; Hessen, Dag O; Karlsson, Jan; Kidd, Karen A; Kritzberg, Emma; McKnight, Diane M; Freeman, Erika C; Senar, Oscar E; Andersson, Agneta; Ask, Jenny; Berggren, Martin; Cherif, Mehdi; Giesler, Reiner; Hotchkiss, Erin R; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Palta, Monica M; Vrede, Tobias; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A

    2018-03-15

    Northern ecosystems are experiencing some of the most dramatic impacts of global change on Earth. Rising temperatures, hydrological intensification, changes in atmospheric acid deposition and associated acidification recovery, and changes in vegetative cover are resulting in fundamental changes in terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages. The effects of global change are readily observed in alterations in the supply of dissolved organic matter (DOM)-the messenger between terrestrial and lake ecosystems-with potentially profound effects on the structure and function of lakes. Northern terrestrial ecosystems contain substantial stores of organic matter and filter or funnel DOM, affecting the timing and magnitude of DOM delivery to surface waters. This terrestrial DOM is processed in streams, rivers, and lakes, ultimately shifting its composition, stoichiometry, and bioavailability. Here, we explore the potential consequences of these global change-driven effects for lake food webs at northern latitudes. Notably, we provide evidence that increased allochthonous DOM supply to lakes is overwhelming increased autochthonous DOM supply that potentially results from earlier ice-out and a longer growing season. Furthermore, we assess the potential implications of this shift for the nutritional quality of autotrophs in terms of their stoichiometry, fatty acid composition, toxin production, and methylmercury concentration, and therefore, contaminant transfer through the food web. We conclude that global change in northern regions leads not only to reduced primary productivity but also to nutritionally poorer lake food webs, with discernible consequences for the trophic web to fish and humans. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER POTENTIAL OF THE PAMIR MOUNTAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander F. Finaev

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pamir region supplies water for most countries of the Central Asia. Discussions and arguments with regard to reduction of water resources related to climate change are popular today among various governmental and international institutions being a greatconcern for modern society. Probable decrease of the Pamirs runoff will affect downstreamcountries that can face water deficiency. However, there is no scientific rationale behindsuch disputes. The Pamir region is a remote, high-mountainous and hard-to-access area with scarce observation network and no reliable data. It is not sufficiently investigated in order to perform any assessment of climate change. This article represents results of study of climate parameters change (such as temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Pamirs. The study area covers all countries included in this mountain region (Tajikistan, China, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan. Observation records, remote sensing data and GIS modeling were used in the present work. Chronological data series were divided into two equal time intervals and were treated as climatic periods. Further analysis of climate change helped to estimate its influence on change of water potential in the Pamirs. The paper considers issues of liquid and solid precipitation change in the study area.

  17. The zonal-mean and regional tropospheric pressure responses to changes in ionospheric potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Limin; Tinsley, Brian; Wang, Lin; Burns, Gary

    2018-06-01

    Global reanalysis data reveal daily surface pressure responses to changes in the global ionospheric potential in both polar and sub-polar regions. We use 21 years of data to show that the pressure response to externally-induced ionospheric potential changes, that are due to the interplanetary magnetic field east-west (IMF By) component, are present in two separate decadal intervals, and follow the opposite ionospheric potential changes in the Arctic and Antarctic for a given By. We use the 4 years of available data to show that the pressure responses to changes in internally generated ionospheric potential, that are caused by low-latitude thunderstorms and highly electrified clouds, agree in sign and sensitivity with those externally generated. We have determined that the daily varying pressure responses are stronger in local winter and spring. The pressure responses at polar latitudes are predominantly over the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps, and those at sub-polar latitudes are of opposite sign, mainly over oceans. A lead-lag analysis confirms that the responses maximize within two days of the ionospheric potential input. Regions of surface pressure fluctuating by about 4 hPa in winter are found with ionospheric potential changes of about 40 kV. The consistent pressure response to the independent external and internal inputs strongly supports the reality of a cloud microphysical mechanism affected by the global electric circuit. A speculative mechanism involves the ionosphere-earth current density Jz, which produces space charge at cloud boundaries and electrically charged droplets and aerosol particles. Ultrafine aerosol particles, under the action of electro-anti-scavenging, are enabled to grow to condensation nuclei size, affecting cloud microphysics and cloud opacity and surface pressure on time scales of hours.

  18. On effective Kähler potential in N=2, d=3 SQED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.L. Buchbinder

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We compute the two-loop effective Kähler potential in three-dimensional N=2 supersymmetric electrodynamics with Chern–Simons kinetic term for the gauge superfield. The effective action is constructed on the base of background field method with one parametric family of gauges. In such an approach, the quadratic part of quantum action mixes the gauge and matter quantum superfields yielding the complications in the computations of the loop supergraphs. To avoid this obstacle and preserve dependence on the gauge parameter we make a non-local change of quantum matter superfields after which the propagator is diagonalized, however the new vertices have appeared. We fix the suitable background and develop the efficient procedure of calculating the two-loop supergraphs with the new vertices. We compute the divergent and finite parts of the superfield effective action, find the two-loop effective Kähler potential and show that it does not depend on the gauge parameter.

  19. Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With increasing human population, large scale climate changes, and the interaction of multiple stressors, understanding cumulative effects on marine ecosystems is increasingly important. Two major drivers of change in coastal and marine ecosystems are industrial developments with acute impacts on local ecosystems, and global climate change stressors with widespread impacts. We conducted a cumulative effects mapping analysis of the marine waters of British Columbia, Canada, under different scenarios: climate change and planned developments. At the coast-wide scale, climate change drove the largest change in cumulative effects with both widespread impacts and high vulnerability scores. Where the impacts of planned developments occur, planned industrial and pipeline activities had high cumulative effects, but the footprint of these effects was comparatively localized. Nearshore habitats were at greatest risk from planned industrial and pipeline activities; in particular, the impacts of planned pipelines on rocky intertidal habitats were predicted to cause the highest change in cumulative effects. This method of incorporating planned industrial development in cumulative effects mapping allows explicit comparison of different scenarios with the potential to be used in environmental impact assessments at various scales. Its use allows resource managers to consider cumulative effect hotspots when making decisions regarding industrial developments and avoid unacceptable cumulative effects. Management needs to consider both global and local stressors in managing marine ecosystems for the protection of biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services.

  20. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  1. Forests: the potential consequences of climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA Forest Service

    2001-01-01

    This pamphlet reports the recent scientific assessment that analyzed how future climate variablity and change may affect forests in the United States. The assessment, sponsored by the USDA Forest Service, and supported, in part, by the U.S Department of Energy, and the National Atmospheric and Space Administration, describes the suite of potential impacts on forests....

  2. Potential exposure to Australian bat lyssavirus in south east Queensland: what has changed in 12 years?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Megan K; McCall, Bradley J

    2010-09-01

    Public health measures have been targeting potential exposure to Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV) since the first recognised human cases, more than a decade ago. The effect of these measures on the epidemiology of notifications of potential exposure has not been investigated since 2003. Trends in notifications of potential exposure to ABLV reported to the Brisbane Southside Public Health Unit between November 1996 and October 2008 were examined. During the study period notification rates declined among all population groups and potential exposures were notified more promptly. The proportion of female notifications and the proportion of notifications from volunteer bat carers and their families and professional groups decreased over time. These changes over 12 years may indicate success of public health measures, under-reporting of potential exposure or both. Intentional handling of bats by untrained members of the public continues to be an important source of potential exposure to ABLV and requires a sustained public health response.

  3. Remote Sensing of Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change, Surface Thermal Responses, and Potential Meteorological and Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Jedlovec, Gary; Meyer, Paul

    2011-01-01

    City growth influences the development of the urban heat island (UHI), but the effect that local meteorology has on the UHI is less well known. This paper presents some preliminary findings from a study that uses multitemporal Landsat TM and ASTER data to evaluate land cover/land use change (LULCC) over the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) and its Huntsville, AL metropolitan area. Landsat NLCD data for 1992 and 2001 have been used to evaluate LULCC for MSFC and the surrounding urban area. Land surface temperature (LST) and emissivity derived from NLCD data have also been analyzed to assess changes in these parameters in relation to LULCC. Additionally, LULCC, LST, and emissivity have been identified from ASTER data from 2001 and 2011 to provide a comparison with the 2001 NLCD and as a measure of current conditions within the study area. As anticipated, the multi-temporal NLCD and ASTER data show that significant changes have occurred in land covers, LST, and emissivity within and around MSFC. The patterns and arrangement of these changes, however, is significant because the juxtaposition of urban land covers within and outside of MSFC provides insight on what impacts at a local to regional scale, the inter-linkage of these changes potentially have on meteorology. To further analyze these interactions between LULCC, LST, and emissivity with the lower atmosphere, a network of eleven weather stations has been established across the MSFC property. These weather stations provide data at a 10 minute interval, and these data are uplinked for use by MSFC facilities operations and the National Weather Service. The weather data are also integrated within a larger network of meteorological stations across north Alabama. Given that the MSFC weather stations will operate for an extended period of time, they can be used to evaluate how the building of new structures, and changes in roadways, and green spaces as identified in the MSFC master plan for the future, will

  4. Morphological changes in cotton roots in relation to soil mechanical impedance and matric potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nabi, G.; Mullins, C.E.

    2006-01-01

    Soil mechanical impedance (M1) and matric potential can both root growth rate, modify rooting pattern and root diameter. Cotton seedlings are sensitive to the soil physical environment, particularly during early stages of growth. Soil matric potential and M1 effect on root biomass, axial root length and diameter, and the number and length of lateral roots in soil packed to penetration resistances (PR) of 0.1, 1.0, 1.1 and 1.2 Mpa (mega Pascal 10/sup 6/ Pascal), each at three matric potentials of-10,-100 and -500 kpa (kilopascal ) = 10/sup 3/ Pascal), were determined. Total root length were reduced by 29, 50 and 53% at impedance of 1.0, 1.1 and 1.2 Mpa, respectively, as compared to the control, whereas M1 of 1.2 Mpa resulted in 60% reduction in axial root length. A similar increase in diameter was caused by increasing mechanical impedance, while decreasing matric potential had little effect. Roots that were water stressed did not change their diameter but had a shorter axis and longer lateral length. In contrast, the impeded roots (PR=1.0, 1.1 and 1.2 MPa) had both a shorter axis and a smaller total length, but had increased diameter. These results not only illustrate the plasticity of root response to stress but also demonstrate how the response differs between different types of stresses. (author)

  5. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, A.; Schijven, J.F.; de Nijs, T.; de Roda Husman, A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects

  6. Potential for a hazardous geospheric response to projected future climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, B

    2010-05-28

    Periods of exceptional climate change in Earth history are associated with a dynamic response from the geosphere, involving enhanced levels of potentially hazardous geological and geomorphological activity. The response is expressed through the adjustment, modulation or triggering of a broad range of surface and crustal phenomena, including volcanic and seismic activity, submarine and subaerial landslides, tsunamis and landslide 'splash' waves, glacial outburst and rock-dam failure floods, debris flows and gas-hydrate destabilization. In relation to anthropogenic climate change, modelling studies and projection of current trends point towards increased risk in relation to a spectrum of geological and geomorphological hazards in a warmer world, while observations suggest that the ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere. Here, the potential influences of anthropogenic warming are reviewed in relation to an array of geological and geomorphological hazards across a range of environmental settings. A programme of focused research is advocated in order to: (i) understand better those mechanisms by which contemporary climate change may drive hazardous geological and geomorphological activity; (ii) delineate those parts of the world that are most susceptible; and (iii) provide a more robust appreciation of potential impacts for society and infrastructure.

  7. Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  8. Dysfunctional methods and the effective potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dannenberg, A.; California Univ., Berkeley

    1988-01-01

    The effective potential is a useful and much-studied object. It is known to be both real and convex, but a perturbative calculation often gives a complex and nonconvex result. In this letter we address the apparent conflict between perturbation theory and the convexity of the effective potential. (orig.)

  9. Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Portland, OR (United States); Yang, Y.; Huang, S. [Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Forest Management Branch; Tchebakova, N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation). Sukachev Forest Inst.

    2008-02-15

    The Alberta climate model was used in conjunction with climate change scenario projections from 3 global circulation models to estimate the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine site productivity in Alberta. The modelling study demonstrated that mean growing degree days greater than 5 degrees C (GGD{sub 5}) were increased by 18 per cent, 38 per cent, and 65 per cent by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. Changes in precipitation did not occur. A dryness index was used to predict productivity ranges and GDD{sub 5}. Results showed that productivity increased by 3 meters for each 30-year period. A large reduction in growing areas was also indicated. Initially, warming increased the potential growing range by 67 per cent by the year 2020. By 2080, growing ranges had decreased to 58 per cent of its current area. Changes in range should be considered when setting longer-term forest management plans. It was concluded that the increased risk of both insect and wildfire outbreaks must also be considered. 40 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

  10. Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Water Level, Flora and Macro-fauna of a Large Neotropical Wetland

    OpenAIRE

    ?beda, B?rbara; Di Giacomo, Adrian S.; Neiff, Juan Jos?; Loiselle, Steven A.; Guadalupe Poi, Alicia S.; G?lvez, Jos? ?ngel; Casco, Silvina; C?zar, Andr?s

    2013-01-01

    Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world?s largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a l...

  11. Gravity-driven groundwater flow and slope failure potential: 1. Elastic effective-stress model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.; Reid, Mark E.

    1992-01-01

    Hilly or mountainous topography influences gravity-driven groundwater flow and the consequent distribution of effective stress in shallow subsurface environments. Effective stress, in turn, influences the potential for slope failure. To evaluate these influences, we formulate a two-dimensional, steady state, poroelastic model. The governing equations incorporate groundwater effects as body forces, and they demonstrate that spatially uniform pore pressure changes do not influence effective stresses. We implement the model using two finite element codes. As an illustrative case, we calculate the groundwater flow field, total body force field, and effective stress field in a straight, homogeneous hillslope. The total body force and effective stress fields show that groundwater flow can influence shear stresses as well as effective normal stresses. In most parts of the hillslope, groundwater flow significantly increases the Coulomb failure potential Φ, which we define as the ratio of maximum shear stress to mean effective normal stress. Groundwater flow also shifts the locus of greatest failure potential toward the slope toe. However, the effects of groundwater flow on failure potential are less pronounced than might be anticipated on the basis of a simpler, one-dimensional, limit equilibrium analysis. This is a consequence of continuity, compatibility, and boundary constraints on the two-dimensional flow and stress fields, and it points to important differences between our elastic continuum model and limit equilibrium models commonly used to assess slope stability.

  12. Electrical potential changes and acoustic emissions generated by fracture and fluid flow during experimental triaxial rock deformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clint, Oswald Conan

    Natural electrical potential signals have been recorded from numerous seismically active areas around the world and therefore have been proposed as a potential earthquake prediction tool. The streaming potential is being used to locate sub-surface water reservoirs, to monitor steam fronts during enhanced oil recovery techniques, and to delineate the anisotropy of fractures in geothermal and oil reservoirs. The generating mechanism for these signals is still unclear although plausible theories include: - Piezoelectric fields produced through stress changes on piezoelectric materials, such as quartz, found in many rocks. - Electrokinetic currents induced through a pressure gradient and caused by electrical charge transport within a moving fluid. - Less well-established theories for instance involving current carrying mobile O' charges. To investigate the relative significance of these mechanisms, I have measured the direct current electrical potential and acoustic emissions during constant strain rate rock deformation under simulated crustal conditions of pressure and pore fluid pressure. Some sixty-one experiments were done on rock samples of quartz rich Darley Dale and Bentheim sandstone and quartz free basalt from Iceland. A computer and servo-controlled conventional triaxial cell was used to deform dry, water-saturated and brine-saturated rock samples at confining pressures between 20 and 200MPa, pore fluid pressures between 10 and 50MPa and strain rates from 10-4 s-1 to 10-6 s-1 I identify the primary sources of the electrical potential signals as being generated by (i) piezoelectricity in dry sandstone experiments and (ii) electrokinetic effect in saturated basalt experiments. I show that electrical potential signals from the other proposed methods are not detectable above the background noise level. It can therefore be argued that the electrokinetic effect is the main electrical potential generating mechanism within the upper crust.Both precursory and

  13. Potential environmental effects of energy conservation measures in northwest industries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baechler, M C; Gygi, K F; Hendrickson, P L

    1992-01-01

    The Bonneville Power Administration (Bonneville) has identified 101 plants in the Pacific Northwest that account for 80% of the region's industrial electricity consumption. These plants offer a precise target for a conservation program. PNL determined that most of these 101 plants were represented by 11 major industries. We then reviewed 36 major conservation technologies used in these 11 industrial settings to determine their potential environmental impacts. Energy efficiency technologies designed for industrial use may result in direct or indirect environmental impacts. Effects may result from the production of the conservation measure technology, changes in the working environment due to different energy and material requirements, or changes to waste streams. Industry type, work-place conditions, worker training, and environmental conditions inside and outside the plant are all key variables that may affect environmental outcomes. To address these issues this report has three objectives: Describe potential conservation measures that Bonneville may employ in industrial programs and discuss potential primary impacts. Characterize industrial systems and processes where the measure may be employed and describe general environmental issues associated with each industry type. Review environmental permitting, licensing, and other regulatory actions required for industries and summarize the type of information available from these sources for further analysis.

  14. [Changes in the redox potential and pO2 in heat shock to Escherichia coli].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktiabr'skiĭ, O N; Pshenichnov, R A

    1982-01-01

    When the growing culture of Escherichia coli was subjected to a temperature above 37 degrees C, the pO2 fell abruptly at 42 degrees C; a reversible decrease in the redox potential (ROP) down to the range of negative values was detected if the growth ceased at 46 degrees C. The drop in the ROP took from 6 to 10 min, with the maximal deviation of 42.5 mV. Such changes in the pO2 and ROP were not caused by a heat shock in the stationary cultures. The change in the ROP was not due to a change in the pH and pO2 of the medium. The authors believe that the effect should be attributed to an elimination of the ionic gradients and the electrochemical gradient delta muH+.

  15. Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmann, Jessica J; Byers, James E; Bierwagen, Britta G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2008-06-01

    Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems. In the long term, these changes may have interacting effects and compound the uncertainty associated with each individual driver. Nonetheless, invasive species are likely to respond in ways that should be qualitatively predictable, and some of these responses will be distinct from those of native counterparts. We used the stages of invasion known as the "invasion pathway" to identify 5 nonexclusive consequences of climate change for invasive species: (1) altered transport and introduction mechanisms, (2) establishment of new invasive species, (3) altered impact of existing invasive species, (4) altered distribution of existing invasive species, and (5) altered effectiveness of control strategies. We then used these consequences to identify testable hypotheses about the responses of invasive species to climate change and provide suggestions for invasive-species management plans. The 5 consequences also emphasize the need for enhanced environmental monitoring and expanded coordination among entities involved in invasive-species management.

  16. Climate change: the potential impact on occupational exposure to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatto, Maria Pia; Cabella, Renato; Gherardi, Monica

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the possible influence of global climate change (GCC) on exposure to plant protection products (PPP) in the workplace. The paper has evaluated the main potential relationships between GCC and occupational exposure to pesticides, by highlighting how global warming might affect their future use and by reviewing its possible consequence on workers' exposure. Global warming, influencing the spatial and temporal distribution and proliferation of weeds, the impact of already present insect pests and pathogens and the introduction of new infesting species, could cause a changed use of pesticides in terms of higher amounts, doses and types of products applied, so influencing the human exposure to them during agricultural activities. GCC, in particular heat waves, may also potentially have impact on workers' susceptibility to pesticides absorption. Prevention policies of health in the workplace must be ready to address new risks from occupational exposure to pesticide, presumably different from current risks, since an increased use may be expected.

  17. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  18. Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Cui, Huijuan

    2016-01-01

    Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

  19. Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleman, Julie C; Blarquez, Olivier; Staver, Carla A

    2016-09-01

    Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R(2)  = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Neonatal care in rural Karnataka: healthy and harmful practices, the potential for change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleland John

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Every year four million babies die in the first month of life and a quarter of these take place in India. A package of essential newborn care practices exists, which has a proven impact on reducing mortality, and can be implemented in low resource settings. However, childbirth and the neonatal period are culturally important times, during which there is strong adherence to traditional practices. Successful implementation of the package therefore requires in-depth knowledge of the local context and tailored behaviour change communication. Methods This study was carried out in rural Karnataka, India. It uses quantitative data from a prospective survey following mothers through their experience of pregnancy and the postnatal period; and qualitative data from in depth interviews and focus group discussions conducted with mothers, grandmothers and birth attendants. It explores local newborn care practices and beliefs, analyses their harmful or beneficial characteristics and elucidates areas of potential resistance to behaviour change and implementation of the essential newborn care package. Results Findings show that many potentially harmful newborn care practices are being carried out in the study area, such as unhygienic cord cutting, delayed breastfeeding and early bathing. Some are more amenable to change than others, depending on the strength of the underlying beliefs, and acceptability of alternative care. However, movement away from traditional practices is already taking place, particularly amongst the more educated and better off, and there is a clear opportunity to broaden, direct and accelerate this process. Conclusion Community education should be a focus of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM and Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illness (IMNCI program being implemented in Karnataka. The added capacity of the new Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs could enable more women to be reached. With

  1. Soils as a Solution: The Potential of Rangelands to Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silver, W. L.; Ryals, R.; DeLonge, M. S.; Owen, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    The majority of soil-related climate change research has focused on describing the problem - estimating rates of carbon (C) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from natural and managed ecosystems. More research is needed to explore potential solutions to climate change through mitigation and adaptation. Here we report on an integrated set of studies aimed at critically evaluating the biogeochemical potential of rangeland soils to help mitigate climate change, while improving the sustainability and productivity of food production systems. We explored direct effects through enhanced net primary production (NPP) and soil C sequestration, and indirect effects through diversion of high emitting sources to lower emitting organic matter dynamics. We used a combination of long- and short-term field experiments, modeling, laboratory assays, life cycle assessment (LCA), and meta-analyses in consultation with a diverse group of stakeholders from both the private and public sectors. We found that organic matter amendments held particularly strong potential. Compost amendments increased soil C storage by 0.5-1.0 Mg C ha-1 y-1 in surface soils over 5 y, and increased NPP and water holding capacity. We measured 1.0 Mg of new C ha-1 y-1 over 3 y. Long-term amendment of cattle manure increased surface soil C by 19.0±7.3 Mg C ha-1 relative to unmanured fields. However, field and modeling experiments suggested that manure amendments lead to large nitrous oxide emissions that eventually eliminated CO2e benefits, whereas compost amendments continued to benefit climate for decades longer. An LCA identified a broader range of climate impacts. When scaled to an area of 25% of California's rangelands, new C sequestered following compost amendments (21 million Mg CO2e) exceeded emissions from cattle (15 million Mg CO2e); diverting organics from waste streams to amendments led to additional GHG savings. In collaboration with our partners, our research contributed to the development of

  2. Projecting the range of potential future climate change as an aid in the assessment of the effectiveness of the Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petersen, K.L.

    1993-10-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program was organized to develop an in-place disposal capability for low-level nuclear waste for the US Department of Energy at the Hanford Site in south-eastern Washington. Layered earthen and engineered barriers are being developed by Westinghouse Hanford Company and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory that will function in what is presently a semiarid environment (annual precipitation 150 mm) for at least 1,000 yr by limiting the infiltration of water through the waste. The Long-Term Climate Change Task is one of several key barrier tasks. Based on the recommendation of a panel of internationally recognized climate and modeling experts, climatic data for this task is being acquired in a step-wise and multi-disciplinary manner. The specific research strategy includes literature review and specialized studies to obtain pollen-derived climatic reconstruction, documented historic weather patterns, and Global Circulation Model output of potential future climate changes related to both the greenhouse effect and the cycling into the next ice age. The specific goals of the task are to: (1) obtain defensible probabilistic projections of the long-term climate variability in the Hanford Site region at many different time scales into the future, (2) develop several test case climate scenarios that bracket the range of potential future climate, and (3) use the climate scenarios both to test and to model protective barrier performance.

  3. Determinants of Change in the Cost-effectiveness Threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulden, Mike; O'Mahony, James; McCabe, Christopher

    2017-02-01

    The cost-effectiveness threshold in health care systems with a constrained budget should be determined by the cost-effectiveness of displacing health care services to fund new interventions. Using comparative statics, we review some potential determinants of the threshold, including the budget for health care, the demand for existing health care interventions, the technical efficiency of existing interventions, and the development of new health technologies. We consider the anticipated direction of impact that would affect the threshold following a change in each of these determinants. Where the health care system is technically efficient, an increase in the health care budget unambiguously raises the threshold, whereas an increase in the demand for existing, non-marginal health interventions unambiguously lowers the threshold. Improvements in the technical efficiency of existing interventions may raise or lower the threshold, depending on the cause of the improvement in efficiency, whether the intervention is already funded, and, if so, whether it is marginal. New technologies may also raise or lower the threshold, depending on whether the new technology is a substitute for an existing technology and, again, whether the existing technology is marginal. Our analysis permits health economists and decision makers to assess if and in what direction the threshold may change over time. This matters, as threshold changes impact the cost-effectiveness of interventions that require decisions now but have costs and effects that fall in future periods.

  4. Standard Model Effective Potential from Trace Anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Jora

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available By analogy with the low energy QCD effective linear sigma model, we construct a standard model effective potential based entirely on the requirement that the tree level and quantum level trace anomalies must be satisfied. We discuss a particular realization of this potential in connection with the Higgs boson mass and Higgs boson effective couplings to two photons and two gluons. We find that this kind of potential may describe well the known phenomenology of the Higgs boson.

  5. Exercise Effects on the Course of Gray Matter Changes Over 70 Days of Bed Rest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koppelmans, V.; Ploutz-Snyder, L.; DeDios, Y. E.; Wood, S. J.; Reuter-Lorenz, P. A.; Kofman, I.; Bloomberg, J. J.; Mulavara, A. P.; Seidler, R. D.

    2014-01-01

    Long duration spaceflight affects posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes through direct effects on peripheral changes that result from reduced vestibular stimulation and body unloading. Effects of microgravity on sensorimotor function have been investigated on earth using bed rest studies. Long duration bed rest serves as a space-flight analogue because it mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. It has been hypothesized that the cephalad fluid shift that has been observed in microgravity could potentially affect central nervous system function and structure, and thereby indirectly affect sensorimotor or cognitive functioning. Preliminary results of one of our ongoing studies indeed showed that 70 days of long duration head down-tilt bed rest results in focal changes in gray matter volume from pre-bed rest to various time points during bed rest. These gray matter changes that could reflect fluid shifts as well as neuroplasticity were related to decrements in motor skills such as maintenance of equilibrium. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both inand post-flight we are currently conducting a study that investigates the potential preventive effects of exercise on gray matter and motor performance changes that we observed over the course of bed rest. Numerous studies have shown beneficial effects of aerobic exercise on brain structure and cognitive performance in healthy and demented subjects over a large age range. We therefore hypothesized that an exercise intervention in bed rest could potentially mitigate or prevent the effects of bed rest on the central nervous system. Here we present preliminary outcomes of our study.

  6. Energy Saving Potentials of Phase Change Materials Applied to Lightweight Building Envelopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoon-Bok Seong

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Phase change materials (PCMs have been considered as an innovative technology that can reduce the peak loads and heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC energy consumption in buildings. Basically they are substances capable of storing or releasing thermal energy as latent heat. Because the amount of latent heat absorbed or released is much larger than the sensible heat, the application of PCMs in buildings has significant potential to reduce energy consumption. However, because each PCM has its own phase change temperature, which is the temperature at which latent heat is absorbed or released, it is important to use an appropriate PCM for the purpose of building envelope design. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the energy saving potentials in buildings when various PCMs with different phase change temperatures are applied to a lightweight building envelope by analyzing the thermal load characteristics. As results, the annual heating load increased at every phase change temperature, but the peak heating load decreased by 3.19% with heptadecane (phase change temperature 21 °C, and the lowest indoor temperature increased by 0.86 °C with heptadecane (phase change temperature 21 °C. The annual cooling load decreased by 1.05% with dodecanol (phase change temperature 24 °C, the peak cooling load decreased by 1.30% with octadecane (phase change temperature 29 °C, and the highest indoor temperature dropped by 0.50 °C with octadecane (phase change temperature 29 °C. When the night ventilation was applied to the building HVAC system for better passive cooling performance, the annual cooling load decreased by 9.28% with dodecanol (phase change temperature 24 °C, the peak load decreased by 11.33% with octadecane (phase change temperature 29 °C, and the highest indoor temperature dropped by 0.85 °C with octadecane (phase change temperature 29 °C.

  7. Neurophysiological Effects of Meditation Based on Evoked and Event Related Potential Recordings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Nilkamal; Telles, Shirley

    2015-01-01

    Evoked potentials (EPs) are a relatively noninvasive method to assess the integrity of sensory pathways. As the neural generators for most of the components are relatively well worked out, EPs have been used to understand the changes occurring during meditation. Event-related potentials (ERPs) yield useful information about the response to tasks, usually assessing attention. A brief review of the literature yielded eleven studies on EPs and seventeen on ERPs from 1978 to 2014. The EP studies covered short, mid, and long latency EPs, using both auditory and visual modalities. ERP studies reported the effects of meditation on tasks such as the auditory oddball paradigm, the attentional blink task, mismatched negativity, and affective picture viewing among others. Both EP and ERPs were recorded in several meditations detailed in the review. Maximum changes occurred in mid latency (auditory) EPs suggesting that maximum changes occur in the corresponding neural generators in the thalamus, thalamic radiations, and primary auditory cortical areas. ERP studies showed meditation can increase attention and enhance efficiency of brain resource allocation with greater emotional control.

  8. Neurophysiological Effects of Meditation Based on Evoked and Event Related Potential Recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Nilkamal; Telles, Shirley

    2015-01-01

    Evoked potentials (EPs) are a relatively noninvasive method to assess the integrity of sensory pathways. As the neural generators for most of the components are relatively well worked out, EPs have been used to understand the changes occurring during meditation. Event-related potentials (ERPs) yield useful information about the response to tasks, usually assessing attention. A brief review of the literature yielded eleven studies on EPs and seventeen on ERPs from 1978 to 2014. The EP studies covered short, mid, and long latency EPs, using both auditory and visual modalities. ERP studies reported the effects of meditation on tasks such as the auditory oddball paradigm, the attentional blink task, mismatched negativity, and affective picture viewing among others. Both EP and ERPs were recorded in several meditations detailed in the review. Maximum changes occurred in mid latency (auditory) EPs suggesting that maximum changes occur in the corresponding neural generators in the thalamus, thalamic radiations, and primary auditory cortical areas. ERP studies showed meditation can increase attention and enhance efficiency of brain resource allocation with greater emotional control. PMID:26137479

  9. Recording membrane potential changes through photoacoustic voltage sensitive dye

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Haichong K.; Kang, Jeeun; Yan, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Monitoring of the membrane potential is possible using voltage sensitive dyes (VSD), where fluorescence intensity changes in response to neuronal electrical activity. However, fluorescence imaging is limited by depth of penetration and high scattering losses, which leads to low sensitivity in vivo...... systems for external detection. In contrast, photoacoustic (PA) imaging, an emerging modality, is capable of deep tissue, noninvasive imaging by combining near infrared light excitation and ultrasound detection. In this work, we develop the theoretical concept whereby the voltage-dependent quenching...... the experimental PA intensity change depends on fluorescence and absorbance properties of the dye. These results not only demonstrate the voltage sensing capability of the dye, but also indicate the necessity of considering both fluorescence and absorbance spectral sensitivities in order to optimize...

  10. Effects of Climate Change and Shifts in Forest Composition on Forest Net Primary Production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

    2008-01-01

    Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly Influenced by climate.However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-Ⅱ Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 × 200 km areas In Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-Ⅱ model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m2 per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

  11. Fern extracts potentiate fluconazole activity and inhibit morphological changes in Candida species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria A. Freitas

    2017-11-01

    Conclusions: The extracts obtained from the fern species L. venustum and P. calomelanos dose not present significant antifungal activity. However, P. calomelanos potentiates the activity of fluconazole and both extracts inhibits the morphological changes in Candida species, indicating that they have potential pharmacological activity as modulators of fungal biology. Therefore, novel studies are required to characterize the interference of these extracts in the virulence and pathogenicity of Candida species as well as the potential of fern species to treat fungal infections.

  12. Proactive systems for early warning of potential impacts of natural disasters on food safety: Climate-change-induced extreme events as case in point

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.; Fels-Klerx, van der H.J.; Noordam, M.Y.; Franz, E.; Willems, D.J.M.; Boxall, A.

    2013-01-01

    According to a recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of certain climate extremes is expected to increase under the influence of climate change. This review presents potential direct and indirect effects of such extremes as well as other severe weather and

  13. [Spatial-temporal variations of spring maize potential yields in a changing climate in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi Juan; Yang, Xiao Guang; Lyu, Shuo; Wang, Jing; Lin, Xiao Mao

    2018-01-01

    Based on meteorological data, agro-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data in Northeast China (NEC), by using the validated Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM-maize), the potential, attainable, potential farmers' and actual farmers' yields of spring maize during the period 1961 to 2015 were analyzed, and the effects of climate variation on maize potential yield in NEC were quantified. Results indicated that the potential yield of spring maize was 12.2 t·hm -2 during the period 1961 to 2015, with those in northeast being lower than southwest within the study region. The attainable yield of spring maize was 11.3 t·hm -2 , and showed a similar spatial distribution with potential yield. Under the current farmers' management practices, mean simulated potential and actual farmers' yields were 6.5 and 4.5 t·hm -2 , respectively. Assuming there were no changes in cultivars and management practices in NEC, the mean potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields of spring maize would decrease by 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t·hm -2 per decade in NEC. However, the actual farmers' yields increased with the value of 1.27 t·hm -2 per decade averaged over NEC. Due to climate variation, year-to-year variations of spring maize potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields were significant, ranging from 10.0 to 14.4, 9.8 to 13.3, 4.4 to 8.5 t·hm -2 , respectively.

  14. Changes in event-related potential functional networks predict traumatic brain injury in piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlan, Lorre S; Lan, Ingrid S; Smith, Colin; Margulies, Susan S

    2018-06-01

    Traumatic brain injury is a leading cause of cognitive and behavioral deficits in children in the US each year. None of the current diagnostic tools, such as quantitative cognitive and balance tests, have been validated to identify mild traumatic brain injury in infants, adults and animals. In this preliminary study, we report a novel, quantitative tool that has the potential to quickly and reliably diagnose traumatic brain injury and which can track the state of the brain during recovery across multiple ages and species. Using 32 scalp electrodes, we recorded involuntary auditory event-related potentials from 22 awake four-week-old piglets one day before and one, four, and seven days after two different injury types (diffuse and focal) or sham. From these recordings, we generated event-related potential functional networks and assessed whether the patterns of the observed changes in these networks could distinguish brain-injured piglets from non-injured. Piglet brains exhibited significant changes after injury, as evaluated by five network metrics. The injury prediction algorithm developed from our analysis of the changes in the event-related potentials functional networks ultimately produced a tool with 82% predictive accuracy. This novel approach is the first application of auditory event-related potential functional networks to the prediction of traumatic brain injury. The resulting tool is a robust, objective and predictive method that offers promise for detecting mild traumatic brain injury, in particular because collecting event-related potentials data is noninvasive and inexpensive. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. The effective nuclear potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skyrme, T.H.R.

    1994-01-01

    An empirical analyses is made of the mean effective internucleon potential required in the shell-model description of nuclei, allowing for the presence of many-body effects as suggested by current theory. A consistent description is found in which the effective two-body interaction acts almost entirely in even states, and the many-body effects are simulated by a repulsive three-body contact interaction. The strength of the two-body interaction is consistent with that expressed by the free scattering matrix of the two-nucleon system, and that of the three-body interaction with the 'rearrangement energy' calculated in the many-body theory. (author). 21 refs, 2 figs, 7 tabs

  16. Person perception from changing emotional expressions: primacy, recency, or averaging effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xia; van Kleef, Gerben A; Sauter, Disa A

    2018-02-01

    Dynamic changes in emotional expressions are a valuable source of information in social interactions. As the expressive behaviour of a person changes, the inferences drawn from the behaviour may also change. Here, we test the possibility that dynamic changes in emotional expressions affect person perception in terms of stable trait attributions. Across three experiments, we examined perceivers' inferences about others' personality traits from changing emotional expressions. Expressions changed from one emotion ("start emotion") to another emotion ("end emotion"), allowing us to disentangle potential primacy, recency, and averaging effects. Drawing on three influential models of person perception, we examined perceptions of dominance and affiliation (Experiment 1a), competence and warmth (Experiment 1b), and dominance and trustworthiness (Experiment 2). A strong recency effect was consistently found across all trait judgments, that is, the end emotion of dynamic expressions had a strong impact on trait ratings. Evidence for a primacy effect was also observed (i.e. the information of start emotions was integrated), but less pronounced, and only for trait ratings relating to affiliation, warmth, and trustworthiness. Taken together, these findings suggest that, when making trait judgements about others, observers weigh the most recently displayed emotion in dynamic expressions more heavily than the preceding emotion.

  17. Taming the Goldstone contributions to the effective potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, Stephen P.

    2014-07-01

    The standard perturbative effective potential suffers from two related problems of principle involving the field-dependent Goldstone boson squared mass, G. First, in general G can be negative, and it actually is negative in the Standard Model; this leads to imaginary contributions to the effective potential that are not associated with a physical instability, and therefore spurious. Second, in the limit that G approaches zero, the effective potential minimization condition is logarithmically divergent already at two-loop order, and has increasingly severe power-law singularities at higher loop orders. I resolve both issues by resumming the Goldstone boson contributions to the effective potential. For the resulting resummed effective potential, the minimum value and the minimization condition that gives the vacuum expectation value are obtained in forms that do not involve G at all.

  18. Potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana (Reptilia: Podocnemididae) and its possible fluctuation under different global climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz Yusty, Carlos; Restrepo, Adriana; Paez, Vivian P

    2014-01-01

    We implemented a species distribution modelling approach to establish the potential distribution of Podocnemis lewyana, to explore the climatic factors that may influence the species' distribution and to evaluate possible changes in distribution under future climate scenarios. The distribution models predicted a continuous distribution from south to north along the Magdalena River, from Rivera and Palermo in the Department of Huila to the departments of Atlantico and Magdalena in the north. Temperature was the variable most influential in the distribution of P. lewyana; this species tends to be present in warm regions with low temperature variability. The distribution model predicted an increase in the geographic range of P. lewyana under climate change scenarios. However, taking into account the habitat preferences of this species and its strong association with water, this result should be treated with caution since the model considered only terrestrial climatic variables. Given the life history characteristics of this species (temperature dependent sex determination, high pivotal temperature and a very narrow transition range) and the negative effect of changes in hydrological regimes on embryo survival, expansion of the potential distribution of P. lewyana in the future does not mean that the species will not be affected by global climate change.

  19. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Svenning, Jens-Christian [Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C (Denmark); Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo, E-mail: camilla.flojgaard@biology.au.d [Department of Wildlife Ecology and Biodiversity, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Grenaavej 14, DK-8410 Roende (Denmark)

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  20. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Floejgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo

    2009-01-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 deg. C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  1. Potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark - implications of climate change, land-use, and invasive species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fløjgaard, Camilla; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Skov, Flemming; Madsen, Aksel Bo; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2009-11-01

    The moderate temperature increase of 0.74 °C in the 20th century has caused latitudinal and altitudinal range shifts in many species including mammals. Therefore, given the more dramatic temperature increase predicted for the 21st century, we can therefore expect even stronger range shifts as well. However, European mammals are already faced with other anthropogenic pressures, notably habitat loss, pollution, overexploitation, and invasive species, and will have to face the combined challenge posed by climate change in a landscape highly influenced by human activities. As an example of the possible consequences of land use, invasive species, and climate change for the regional-scale mammal species composition, we here focus on the potential 21st century changes to the mammal fauna of Denmark. Supported by species distribution modelling, we present a discussion of the possible changes to the Danish mammal fauna: Which species are likely to become locally extinct? Which new species are most likely to immigrate? And, what is the potential threat from invasive species? We find that future climate change is likely to cause a general enrichment of the Danish mammal fauna by the potential immigration of seventeen new species. Only the northern birch mouse (Sicista betulina) is at risk of extinction from climate change predicted. The European native mammals are not anticipated to contribute to the invasive-species problem as they coexist with most Danish species in other parts of Europe. However, non-European invasive species are also likely to enter the Danish fauna and may negatively impact the native species.

  2. Potential Climate-Induced Runoff Changes and Associated Uncertainty in Four Pacific Northwest Estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of a larger investigation into potential impacts of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries. These were the Coquille River estuary, the South Slough of Coos Bay, and the Yaquina Bay...

  3. Potential for thermal tolerance to mediate climate change effects on three members of a cool temperate lizard genus, Niveoscincus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Amanda J; While, Geoffrey M; Beeton, Nicholas J; Wapstra, Erik

    2015-08-01

    Climatic changes are predicted to be greater in higher latitude and mountainous regions but species specific impacts are difficult to predict. This is partly due to inter-specific variance in the physiological traits which mediate environmental temperature effects at the organismal level. We examined variation in the critical thermal minimum (CTmin), critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and evaporative water loss rates (EWL) of a widespread lowland (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and two range restricted highland (N. microlepidotus and N. greeni) members of a cool temperate Tasmanian lizard genus. The widespread lowland species had significantly higher CTmin and CTmax and significantly lower EWL than both highland species. Implications of inter-specific variation in thermal tolerance for activity were examined under contemporary and future climate change scenarios. Instances of air temperatures below CTmin were predicted to decline in frequency for the widespread lowland and both highland species. Air temperatures of high altitude sites were not predicted to exceed the CTmax of either highland species throughout the 21st century. In contrast, the widespread lowland species is predicted to experience air temperatures in excess of CTmax on 1 or 2 days by three of six global circulation models from 2068-2096. To estimate climate change effects on activity we reran the thermal tolerance models using minimum and maximum temperatures selected for activity. A net gain in available activity time was predicted under climate change for all three species; while air temperatures were predicted to exceed maximum temperatures selected for activity with increasing frequency, the change was not as great as the predicted decline in air temperatures below minimum temperatures selected for activity. We hypothesise that the major effect of rising air temperatures under climate change is an increase in available activity period for both the widespread lowland and highland species. The

  4. Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Gervasi

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

  5. Dynamics and climate change mitigation potential of soil organic carbon sequestration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Rolf; Bossio, Deborah

    2014-11-01

    When assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and its climate change (CC) mitigation potential at global scale, the dynamic nature of soil carbon storage and interventions to foster it should be taken into account. Firstly, adoption of SOC-sequestration measures will take time, and reasonably such schemes could only be implemented gradually at large-scale. Secondly, if soils are managed as carbon sinks, then SOC will increase only over a limited time, up to the point when a new SOC equilibrium is reached. This paper combines these two processes and predicts potential SOC sequestration dynamics in agricultural land at global scale and the corresponding CC mitigation potential. Assuming that global governments would agree on a worldwide effort to gradually change land use practices towards turning agricultural soils into carbon sinks starting 2014, the projected 87-year (2014-2100) global SOC sequestration potential of agricultural land ranged between 31 and 64 Gt. This is equal to 1.9-3.9% of the SRES-A2 projected 87-year anthropogenic emissions. SOC sequestration would peak 2032-33, at that time reaching 4.3-8.9% of the projected annual SRES-A2 emission. About 30 years later the sequestration rate would have reduced by half. Thus, SOC sequestration is not a C wedge that could contribute increasingly to mitigating CC. Rather, the mitigation potential is limited, contributing very little to solving the climate problem of the coming decades. However, we deliberately did not elaborate on the importance of maintaining or increasing SOC for sustaining soil health, agro-ecosystem functioning and productivity; an issue of global significance that deserves proper consideration irrespectively of any potential additional sequestration of SOC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Change in the electric potential of solid fuels on their combustion and gasification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fialkov, B.S.; Zakharov, A.G.; Plitsyn, V.T.

    1979-01-01

    Solid fuels of various degrees of graphitization (graphite, coke, hard coal, lignite) were used to study the changes in electric potential of samples during gasification and combustion in air. The potential shows three peaks during combustion, the third corresponding to ignition. Two peaks occur during the gasification process.

  7. Automatic change detection in vision: Adaptation, memory mismatch, or both? II: Oddball and adaptation effects on event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodnár, Flóra; File, Domonkos; Sulykos, István; Kecskés-Kovács, Krisztina; Czigler, István

    2017-11-01

    In this study we compared the event-related potentials (ERPs) obtained in two different paradigms: a passive visual oddball paradigm and an adaptation paradigm. The aim of the study was to investigate the relation between the effects of activity decrease following an adaptor (stimulus-specific adaptation) and the effects of an infrequent stimulus within sequences of frequent ones. In Experiment 1, participants were presented with different line textures. The frequent (standard) and rare (deviant) texture elements differed in their orientation. In Experiment 2, windmill pattern stimuli were presented in which the number of vanes differentiated the deviant and standard stimuli. In Experiment 1 the ERP differences elicited between the oddball deviant and the standard were similar to the differences between the ERPs to the nonadapted and adapted stimuli in the adaptation paradigm. In both paradigms the differences appeared as a posterior negativity with the latency of 120-140 ms. This finding demonstrates that the representation of a sequential rule (successive presentation of the standard) and the violation of this rule are not necessary for deviancy effects to emerge. In Experiment 2 (windmill pattern), in the oddball paradigm the difference potentials appeared as a long-lasting negativity. In the adaptation condition, the later part of this negativity (after 200 ms) was absent. We identified the later part of the oddball difference potential as the genuine visual mismatch negativity-that is, an ERP correlate of sequence violations. The latencies of the difference potentials (deviant minus standard) and the endogenous components (P1 and N1) diverged; therefore, the adaptation of these particular ERP components cannot explain the deviancy effect. Accordingly, the sources contributing to the standard-versus-deviant modulations differed from those related to visual adaptation; that is, they generated distinct ERP components.

  8. Superfield tadpole method for SUSY effective potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, P.P.

    1983-01-01

    Superfield formulation of Weinberg's tadpole method to compute the effective potential in supersymmetric theories is illustrated by considering the general renormalizable action involving only chiral scalar superfields. Unconstrained superfield potentials are introduced to simplify the ''effective'' superfield propagator which is derived in a compact form. (orig.)

  9. A single quark effective potential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodmann, B.E.J.; Vasconcellos, C.A.Z.

    1994-01-01

    In the present work we construct a radial spherical symmetric single quark potential model for the nucleon, consistent with asymptotic freedom and confinement. The quark mass enters as potential parameter and that way induces indirectly an isospin dependence in the interaction. As a consequence, a contribution to the negative charge square radius of the neutron arises an an effect of the quark core, which simulates an isospin symmetry breaking effect in the nucleon due to strong interaction. (author)

  10. Projected effects of Climate-change-induced flow alterations on stream macroinvertebrate abundances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakouei, Karan; Kiesel, Jens; Domisch, Sami; Irving, Katie S; Jähnig, Sonja C; Kail, Jochem

    2018-03-01

    Global change has the potential to affect river flow conditions which are fundamental determinants of physical habitats. Predictions of the effects of flow alterations on aquatic biota have mostly been assessed based on species ecological traits (e.g., current preferences), which are difficult to link to quantitative discharge data. Alternatively, we used empirically derived predictive relationships for species' response to flow to assess the effect of flow alterations due to climate change in two contrasting central European river catchments. Predictive relationships were set up for 294 individual species based on (1) abundance data from 223 sampling sites in the Kinzig lower-mountainous catchment and 67 sites in the Treene lowland catchment, and (2) flow conditions at these sites described by five flow metrics quantifying the duration, frequency, magnitude, timing and rate of flow events using present-day gauging data. Species' abundances were predicted for three periods: (1) baseline (1998-2017), (2) horizon 2050 (2046-2065) and (3) horizon 2090 (2080-2099) based on these empirical relationships and using high-resolution modeled discharge data for the present and future climate conditions. We compared the differences in predicted abundances among periods for individual species at each site, where the percent change served as a proxy to assess the potential species responses to flow alterations. Climate change was predicted to most strongly affect the low-flow conditions, leading to decreased abundances of species up to -42%. Finally combining the response of all species over all metrics indicated increasing overall species assemblage responses in 98% of the studied river reaches in both projected horizons and were significantly larger in the lower-mountainous Kinzig compared to the lowland Treene catchment. Such quantitative analyses of freshwater taxa responses to flow alterations provide valuable tools for predicting potential climate-change impacts on species

  11. Music listening after stroke: beneficial effects and potential neural mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Särkämö, Teppo; Soto, David

    2012-04-01

    Music is an enjoyable leisure activity that also engages many emotional, cognitive, and motor processes in the brain. Here, we will first review previous literature on the emotional and cognitive effects of music listening in healthy persons and various clinical groups. Then we will present findings about the short- and long-term effects of music listening on the recovery of cognitive function in stroke patients and the underlying neural mechanisms of these music effects. First, our results indicate that listening to pleasant music can have a short-term facilitating effect on visual awareness in patients with visual neglect, which is associated with functional coupling between emotional and attentional brain regions. Second, daily music listening can improve auditory and verbal memory, focused attention, and mood as well as induce structural gray matter changes in the early poststroke stage. The psychological and neural mechanisms potentially underlying the rehabilitating effect of music after stroke are discussed. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

  12. Development of Self-Potential Tomography for Early Warning System of rainfall induced Landslides: Electro-kinetic Effects and Sandbox Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattori, K.; Yamazaki, T.; Terajima, T.; Huang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Electro-kinetic effects is one of the possible mechanism for ULF electromagnetic phenomena preceeding landlisdes and large earthquakes. To understand general tendencies of electromagnetic changes related to electro-kinetic effects, we struggle with the integrated research to clarify the coupling among hydrological, geotechnical, and electromagnetic changes. Our final goal is to understand the ULF elecromagnetic phenomena in order to develop a simple technology for earthquake monitoring/forecasting. So, in this paper, we first show the observed waveforms possibly related to the Boso slow slip events in 2003 and 2007 and indoor landslide experiments with artificial rainfall. Then, numerical computations on the self-potential variation by the simulated groundwater flow, and compare the results with those observed by laboratory experiments. In the result, the simulated self-potential variation is consistent with observed one. FInally, we developed self-potential tomography to estimate the ground water condition. And we also characterize the pressure from the self-potential data, and compare the result with observed pressure head that is measured by pore-pressure gauge and found that the inverted pressure head is consistent with observed one. In addition, we apply the self-potential data observed by the flume test. The estimated pressure head from observed self-potential data shows the consistency with observed pressure head. And estimated pressure head also show the characteristic distribution before the landslide occurred. These facts are highly suggestive in effectiveness of the self-potential tomography to monitor groundwater changes associated with landslide. The details will be given in our presentation.

  13. Climate change: Potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia; Kusler, Jon

    2000-01-01

    Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that his trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothote wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options.

  14. Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main

  15. Effects of climate change on US agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guillet, L.

    2007-08-01

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO 2 levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO 2 is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  16. Effects of microstructure and water on the electrical potentials in bone induced by ultrasound irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsuneda, H.; Matsukawa, S.; Takayanagi, S.; Matsukawa, M., E-mail: mmatsuka@mail.doshisha.ac.jp [Wave Electronics Research Center, Laboratory of Ultrasonic Electronics, Doshisha University, 1-3, Tatara Miyakodani, Kyotanabe, Kyoto 610-0321 (Japan); Mizuno, K. [Underwater Technology Collaborative Research Center, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Yanagitani, T. [Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8555 (Japan)

    2015-02-16

    The healing mechanism of bone fractures by low intensity pulse ultrasound is yet to be fully understood. There have been many discussions regarding how the high frequency dynamic stress can stimulate numerous cell types through various pathways. As one possible initial process of this mechanism, we focus on the piezoelectricity of bone and demonstrate that bone can generate electrical potentials by ultrasound irradiation in the MHz range. We have fabricated ultrasonic bone transducers using bovine cortical bone as the piezoelectric device. The ultrasonically induced electrical potentials in the transducers change as a function of time during immersed ultrasonic pulse measurements and become stable when the bone is fully wet. In addition, the magnitude of the induced electrical potentials changes owing to the microstructure in the cortical bone. The potentials of transducers with haversian structure bone are higher than those of plexiform structure bone, which informs about the effects of bone microstructure on the piezoelectricity.

  17. Parliamentary role and relationship in effectively addressing climate change issues - Swaziland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, R

    2011-01-15

    Climate change is defined as any long-term and significant change in the expected patterns of a specific region's average weather for an appropriately significant period of time. It is the result of several factors, including Earth?s dynamic processes, external forces, and more recently, human activity. External factors that shape climate include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in Earth's orbit, and variations in the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence of climatic change taken from a variety of sources can, in turn, be used to reconstruct past climates. Most climate evidence is inferred from changes in key climate indicators, including vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea-level change, and glacial geology. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the planet today. In developing countries, Swaziland included, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor. It is a particular threat to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and progress in sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Africa reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households, and individuals in varying ways. Additional global changes, including changed trade patterns and energy policies, have the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change on some of these systems and groups.

  18. Hyperspherical effective interaction for nonlocal potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnea, N.; Leidemann, W.; Orlandini, G.

    2010-01-01

    The effective interaction hyperspherical-harmonics method, formulated for local forces, is generalized to accommodate nonlocal interactions. As for local potentials this formulation retains the separation of the hyper-radial part leading solely to a hyperspherical effective interaction. By applying the method to study ground-state properties of 4 He with a modern effective-field-theory nucleon-nucleon potential model (Idaho-N3LO), one finds a substantial acceleration in the convergence rate of the hyperspherical-harmonics series. Also studied are the binding energies of the six-body nuclei 6 He and 6 Li with the JISP16 nuclear force. Again an excellent convergence is observed.

  19. Potential effects of climate change on riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems in the Blue Mountains, Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen A. Dwire

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems, which are found at all elevations throughout the Blue Mountains, comprise a small portion of the landscape but have high conservation value because they provide habitat for diverse flora and fauna. The effects of climate change on these special habitats may be especially profound, due to altered snowpack and hydrologic regimes predicted to occur in the near future. The functionality of many riparian areas is currently compromised by water diversions and livestock grazing, which reduces their resilience to additional stresses that a warmer climate may bring. Areas associated with springs and small streams will probably experience near-term changes, and some riparian areas and wetlands may decrease in size over time. A warmer climate and reduced soil moisture could lead to a transition from riparian hardwood species to more drought tolerant conifers and shrubs. Increased frequency and spatial extent of wildfire spreading from upland forests could also affect riparian species composition. The specific effects of climate change will vary, depending on local hydrology (especially groundwater, topography, streamside microclimates, and current conditions and land use. Keywords: Climate change, Groundwater-dependent ecosystems, Riparian areas, Springs, Wetlands

  20. Dominant two-loop corrections to the MSSM finite temperature effective potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, J.R.

    1996-04-01

    We show that two-loop corrections to the finite temperature effective potential in the MSSM can have a dramatic effect on the strength of the electroweak phase transition, making it more strongly first order. The change in the order parameter v/Tc can be as large as 75% of the one-loop daisy improved result. This effect can be decisive to widen the region in parameter space where erasure of the created baryons by sphaleron processes after the transition is suppressed and hence, where electroweak baryogenesis might be successful. We find an allowed region with tan β< or∼4.5 and a Higgs boson with standard couplings and mass below 80 GeV within the reach of LEP II. (orig.)

  1. Adapting to Changing Memory Retrieval Demands: Evidence from Event-Related Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benoit, Roland G.; Werkle-Bergner, Markus; Mecklinger, Axel; Kray, Jutta

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated preparatory processes involved in adapting to changing episodic memory retrieval demands. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants performed a general old/new recognition task and a specific task that also required retrieval of perceptual details. The relevant task remained either constant or changed…

  2. Potential impacts of global climate change on the hydrology and ecology of ephemeral freshwater systems of the forests of the northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert T. Brooks

    2009-01-01

    Global, national, and regional assessments of the potential effects of Global Climate Change (GCC) have been recently released, but not one of these assessments has specifically addressed the critical issue of the potential impacts of GCC on ephemeral freshwater systems (EFS). I suggest that this is a major oversight as EFS occur in various forms across the globe. In...

  3. The effective crystal field potential

    CERN Document Server

    Mulak, J

    2000-01-01

    As it results from the very nature of things, the spherical symmetry of the surrounding of a site in a crystal lattice or an atom in a molecule can never occur. Therefore, the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of any bound ion or atom have to differ from those of spherically symmetric respective free ions. In this way, the most simplified concept of the crystal field effect or ligand field effect in the case of individual molecules can be introduced. The conventional notion of the crystal field potential is narrowed to its non-spherical part only through ignoring the dominating spherical part which produces only a uniform energy shift of gravity centres of the free ion terms. It is well understood that the non-spherical part of the effective potential "seen" by open-shell electrons localized on a metal ion plays an essential role in most observed properties. Light adsorption, electron paramagnetic resonance, inelastic neutron scattering and basic characteristics derived from magnetic and thermal measurements, ar...

  4. Potential for erroneous interpretation of poisoning outcomes due to changes in National Poison Data System reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Bruce; Ke, Xuehua; Klein-Schwartz, Wendy

    2010-08-01

    In 2006, the annual report of poison centers in the United States changed the method of reporting profiles for generic substance categories from all exposures to single-substance exposures only. The objective of this study is to describe the potential impact of this reporting change on longitudinal analysis of outcomes. Generic substance categories with data available for all years of the study were manually extracted from Table 22 of the National Poison Data System (NPDS) annual reports for 2002-2007. For each generic substance category, the following data were extracted for each of the 6 years: total number of substance mentions (2002-2005) or single-substance exposures (2006-2007), reason (unintentional or intentional), pediatric exposures (children age average annual number of reported deaths by substance category decreased by 80.8%, from 2,229 in year 2002-2005 to 428 after the 2006 reporting change (p average annual number of reported major outcomes by substance category dropped by 76.0% (p average number of deaths and major effects by substance category decreased by about 50% from 394 and 4,639 per year during 2002-2005 to 198 deaths (p average rates of reported deaths (61.7 and 35.9%) and major effects (36.3 and 11.2%) for drug categories and nondrug categories, respectively (p change in 2006 will yield inaccurate results if the change in reporting methodology is not taken into account.

  5. Is Time the Best Metric to Measure Carbon-Related Climate Change Potential and Tune the Economy Toward Reduced Fossil Carbon Extraction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGroff, F. A.

    2016-12-01

    Anthropogenic changes to non-anthropogenic carbon fluxes are a primary driver of climate change. There currently exists no comprehensive metric to measure and value anthropogenic changes in carbon flux between all states of carbon. Focusing on atmospheric carbon emissions as a measure of anthropogenic activity on the environment ignores the fungible characteristics of carbon that are crucial in both the biosphere and the worldwide economy. Focusing on a single form of inorganic carbon as a proxy metric for the plethora of anthropogenic activity and carbon compounds will prove inadequate, convoluted, and unmanageable. A broader, more basic metric is needed to capture the entirety of carbon activity, particularly in an economic, profit-driven environment. We propose a new metric to measure changes in the temporal distance of any form or state of carbon from one state to another. Such a metric would be especially useful to measure the temporal distance of carbon from sinks such as the atmosphere or oceans. The effect of changes in carbon flux as a result of any human activity can be measured by the difference between the anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic temporal distance. The change in the temporal distance is a measure of the climate change potential much like voltage is a measure of electrical potential. The integral of the climate change potential is proportional to the anthropogenic climate change. We also propose a logarithmic vector scale for carbon quality, cq, as a measure of anthropogenic changes in carbon flux. The distance between the cq vector starting and ending temporal distances represents the change in cq. A base-10 logarithmic scale would allow the addition and subtraction of exponents to calculate changes in cq. As anthropogenic activity changes the temporal distance of carbon, the change in cq is measured as: cq = ß ( log10 [mean carbon temporal distance] ) where ß represents the carbon price coefficient for a particular country. For any

  6. Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonathan. Thompson

    2005-01-01

    Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

  7. Anticipated water quality changes in response to climate change and potential consequences for inland fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yushun; Todd, Andrew S.; Murphy, Margaret H.; Lomnicky, Gregg

    2016-01-01

    Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Changes anticipated with climate change in the future are likely to have a profound effect on inland aquatic ecosystems through diverse pathways, including changes in water quality. In this brief article, we present an initial discussion of several of the water quality responses that can be anticipated to occur within inland water bodies with climate change and how those changes are likely to impact fishes.

  8. Attention effects at auditory periphery derived from human scalp potentials: displacement measure of potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Kazunari; Hayashi, Akiko; Sekiguchi, Takahiro; Era, Shukichi

    2006-10-01

    It is known in humans that electrophysiological measures such as the auditory brainstem response (ABR) are difficult to identify the attention effect at the auditory periphery, whereas the centrifugal effect has been detected by measuring otoacoustic emissions. This research developed a measure responsive to the shift of human scalp potentials within a brief post-stimulus period (13 ms), that is, displacement percentage, and applied it to an experiment to retrieve the peripheral attention effect. In the present experimental paradigm, tone pips were exposed to the left ear whereas the other ear was masked by white noise. Twelve participants each conducted two conditions of either ignoring or attending to the tone pips. Relative to averaged scalp potentials in the ignoring condition, the shift of the potentials was found within early component range during the attentive condition, and displacement percentage then revealed a significant magnitude difference between the two conditions. These results suggest that, using a measure representing the potential shift itself, the peripheral effect of attention can be detected from human scalp potentials.

  9. Potential Carbon Stock Changes in Arizona's Ecosystems Due to Projected Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, B. K.; Ironside, K.; Hungate, B. A.; Hurteau, M.; Koch, G. W.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change can alter the role of plants and soils as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide and result in changes in long-term carbon storage. To understand the sensitivity of Arizona's ecosystems to climate change, we quantified the present carbon stocks in Arizona's major ecosystem types using the NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model. Carbon stocks for each vegetation type included surface mineral soil, dead wood litter, standing wood and live leaf biomass. The total Arizona ecosystem carbon stock is presently 1775 MMtC, 545 MMtC of which is in Pinus ponderosa and Pinus edulis forests and woodlands. Evergreen forest vegetation, predominately Pinus ponderosa, has the largest current C density at 11.3 kgC/m2, while Pinus edulis woodlands have a C density of 6.0 kgC/m2. A change in climate will impact the suitable range for each tree species, and consequentially the amount of C stored. Present habitat ranges for these tree species are projected to have widespread mortality and likely will be replaced by herbaceous species, resulting in a loss of C stored. We evaluated the C storage implications over the 2010 to 2099 period of climate change based on output from GCMs with contrasting projections for the southwestern US: MPI-ECHAM5, which projects warming and reduced precipitation, and UKMO-HadGEM, which projects warming and increased precipitation. These projected changes are end points of a spectrum of possible future climate scenarios. The vegetation distribution models used describe potential suitable habitat, and we assumed that the growth rate for each vegetation type would be one-third of the way to full C density for each 30 year period up to 2099. With increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation predictions under the MPI-ECHAM5 model, P. ponderosa and P. edulis vegetation show a decrease in carbon stored from 545 MMtC presently to 116 MMtC. With the combined increase in temperature and precipitation, C storage in these

  10. Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

    2014-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

  11. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W.

    2007-01-01

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W r ) and biome-level water limitation (L TA ), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L TA is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L TA , ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L TA tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L TA suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L TA would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative

  12. Potential future changes in water limitations of the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Lucht, W. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam (Germany)

    2007-02-15

    This study explores the effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and climate change on soil moisture (W{sub r} ) and biome-level water limitation (L{sub TA}), using a dynamic global vegetation and water balance model forced by five different scenarios of change in temperature, precipitation, radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, all based on the same IS92a emission scenario. L{sub TA} is defined as an index that quantifies the degree to which transpiration and photosynthesis are co-limited by soil water shortage (high values indicate low water limitation). Soil moisture decreases in many regions by 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990, though the regional pattern of change differs substantially among the scenarios due primarily to differences in GCM-specific precipitation changes. In terms of L{sub TA}, ecosystems in northern temperate latitudes are at greatest risk of increasing water limitation, while in most other latitudes L{sub TA} tends to increase (but again varies the regional pattern of change among the scenarios). The frequently opposite direction of change in W r and L{sub TA} suggests that decreases in W r are not necessarily felt by actual vegetation, which is attributable mainly to the physiological vegetation response to elevated CO2. Without this beneficial effect, the sign of change in L{sub TA} would be reversed from predominantly positive to predominantly negative.

  13. Potentiated antibodies to mu-opiate receptors: effect on integrative activity of the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiko, V V; Vorob'eva, T M; Berchenko, O G; Epstein, O I

    2003-01-01

    The effect of homeopathically potentiated antibodies to mu-receptors (10(-100) wt %) on integrative activity of rat brain was studied using the models of self-stimulation of the lateral hypothalamus and convulsions produced by electric current. Electric current was delivered through electrodes implanted into the ventromedial hypothalamus. Single treatment with potentiated antibodies to mu-receptors increased the rate of self-stimulation and decreased the threshold of convulsive seizures. Administration of these antibodies for 7 days led to further activation of the positive reinforcement system and decrease in seizure thresholds. Distilled water did not change the rate of self-stimulation and seizure threshold.

  14. Examining uncertainties in the linkage between global climate change and potential human health impacts in the western USA -- Hexachlorobenzene (HCB) as a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Goldman, M. [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

    1994-09-30

    Industrial societies have altered the earth`s environment in ways that could have important, long-term ecological, economic, and health implications. In this paper the authors define, characterize, and evaluate parameter and outcome uncertainties using a model that links global climate change with predictions of chemical exposure and human health risk in the western region of the US. They illustrate the impact of uncertainty about global climate change on such potential secondary outcomes using as a case study the public health consequences related to the behavior environmentally of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), an ubiquitous multimedia pollutant. They begin by constructing a matrix that reveals the linkage between global environmental change and potential regional human-health effects that might be induced directly and/or indirectly by HCB released into the air and water. This matrix is useful for translating critical uncertainties into terms that can be understood and used by policy makers to formulate strategies against potential adverse irreversible health and economic consequences. Specifically, the authors employ a combined uncertainty/sensitivity analysis to investigate how the HCB that has been released is affected by increasing atmospheric temperature and the accompanying climate alterations that are anticipated and how such uncertainty propagates to affect the expected magnitude and calculational precision of estimates of associated potential human exposures and health effects.

  15. Consciousness and Conscience: Feminism, Pragmatism, and the Potential for Radical Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Fischer

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available

    Pragmatist philosopher John Dewey famously stated that man is a creature of habit, and not of reason or instinct. In this paper, I will assess Dewey's explication of the habituated self and the potential it holds for radical transformative processes. In particular, I will examine the process of coming to feminist consciousness and will show that a feminist-pragmatist reading of change can accommodate a view of the self as responsible agent. Following the elucidation of the changing self, I will appraise key pragmatist concepts of inquiry, such as doubt and self-reflexivity, with regard to their treatment of deep-seated internalizations of oppressive norms and the initiation of change. Ultimately, I will argue that a feminist-pragmatist understanding of transformation is conducive not only to the project of personal transformation, but also to social and political change more generally.

     

  16. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m 3  s -1 ), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m 3  s -1 . The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  17. Identifying the potential of changes to blood sample logistics using simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Pelle Morten Thomas; Jacobsen, Peter; Poulsen, Jørgen Hjelm

    2013-01-01

    of the simulation was to evaluate changes made to the transportation of blood samples between wards and the laboratory. The average- (AWT) and maximum waiting time (MWT) from a blood sample was drawn at the ward until it was received at the laboratory, and the distribution of arrivals of blood samples......, each of the scenarios was tested in terms of what amount of resources would give the optimal result. The simulations showed a big improvement potential in implementing a new technology/mean for transporting the blood samples. The pneumatic tube system showed the biggest potential lowering the AWT...

  18. Potential for carbon sequestration and mitigation of climate change by irrigation of grasslands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Alexander; Campana, Pietro Elia; Lind, Mårten; Yan, Jinyue

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A generic method for climate change mitigation feasibility of PVWPS is developed. • Restoration of degraded lands in China has large climate change mitigation potential. • PV produces excess electricity included in the mitigation potential of the system. • The benefit is higher than if the PV were to produce electricity for the grid only. - Abstract: The climate change mitigation potential of irrigation powered by a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) to restore degraded grasslands has been investigated using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories for Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use. The purpose of this study is to develop a generic and simple method to estimate the climate change mitigation benefit of a PVWPS. The possibility to develop carbon credits for the carbon offset markets has also been studied comparing carbon sequestration in grasslands to other carbon sequestration projects. The soil carbon sequestration following irrigation of the grassland is calculated as an annual increase in the soil organic carbon pool. The PVWPS can also generate an excess of electricity when irrigation is not needed and the emissions reductions due to substitution of grid electricity give additional climate change mitigation potential. The results from this study show that the carbon sequestration and emissions reductions benefits per land area using a PVWPS for irrigating grasslands are comparable to other carbon sequestration options such as switching to no-till practice. Soil carbon in irrigated grasslands is increased with over 60% relative to severely degraded grasslands and if nitrogen fixing species are introduced the increase in soil organic carbon can be almost 80%. Renewable electricity generation by the PVWPS will further increase the mitigation benefit of the system with 70–90%. When applying the methodology developed in this paper to a case in Qinghai, China

  19. Cyclohexane, a potential drug of abuse with pernicious effects for the brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar eGonzalez-Perez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclohexane is a volatile solvent used as a harmless substitute for dangerous organic solvents in several products, such as paint thinners, gasoline and adhesives. Many of these products are used as drugs of abuse and can severely damage neural tissue and impair neurological functions. However, there is very little information on the effects of cyclohexane on the brain. In humans, cyclohexane produces headaches, sleepiness, dizziness, limb weakness, motor changes and verbal memory impairment. Recent studies in mice have demonstrated behavioral alterations, reactive gliosis, microglial reactivity and oxidative stress in the brains of cyclohexane-exposed animals. This indicates that cyclohexane may represent a potential problem for public health. Therefore, studies are needed to clarify the neurobiological effects of this volatile compound, including the cellular and molecular mechanisms of neurotoxicity, and to minimize the human health risk posed by the intentional or accidental inhalation of this potential drug of abuse.

  20. Ozone and sulphur dioxide effects on leaf water potential of Petunia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elkiey, T.; Ormrod, D.P.

    1979-01-01

    Three cultivars of Petunia hydrida Vilm., of differing ozone visible injury sensitivity, were exposed to 40 parts per hundred million (pphm) ozone and/or 80 pphm SO/sub 2/ for 4 h to study the relationships of leaf water potential, pollutant exposure, and cultivar sensitivity. Ozone substantially decreased leaf water potential in cv White Cascade but not in cv Capri or White Magic. Sulphur dioxide did not affect leaf water potential but delayed ozone-induced changes. Cultivar sensitivity to ozone-induced changes in leaf water potential was not related to cultivar sensitivity to ozone-induced visible injury.

  1. Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

    2018-05-01

    Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

  2. Evaluation of potential impacts of climate change and water management on streamflow in the Rovuma River, Mozambique and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minihane, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Economic development and public health are tied to water resources development in many parts of the world. Effective use of water management infrastructure investments requires projections of future climatic and water use conditions. This is particularly true in developing countries. We explore in this work water resource availability in the Rovuma River, which lies in a sparsely-populated region of southeastern Africa, on the border of Mozambique and Tanzania. While there are only limited documented observations of flow of the Rovuma River and it's tributaries, particularly in recent years, there is widespread interest in development of the water resources of the region. The national governments are interested in hydropower potential while private companies, many of them large multinational organizations, have started irrigation programs to increase agricultural output. While the Mozambique and Tanzania governments have a joint agreement over the river development, there is a need to assess both current and potential future water resource conditions in the basin. The sustainability of these developments, however, may be affected by climate change. Here we quantify potential changes in streamflow in the Rovuma River under dry and wet climate projection scenarios using the delta method and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale hydrology model. We then evaluate streamflow changes relative to water withdrawals required for a range of irrigated agriculture scenarios. Our analysis is intended to be a starting point for planners to consider potential impacts of both streamflow withdrawal permits (for irrigated agriculture) and future uncertain climate conditions.

  3. Correcting Misconceptions on Electronics: Effects of a Simulation-Based Learning Environment Backed by a Conceptual Change Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Lung; Pan, Pei-Rong; Sung, Yao-Ting; Chang, Kuo-En

    2013-01-01

    Computer simulation has significant potential as a supplementary tool for effective conceptual-change learning based on the integration of technology and appropriate instructional strategies. This study elucidates misconceptions in learning on diodes and constructs a conceptual-change learning system that incorporates…

  4. Effect of Particle Size on Electrode Potential and Thermodynamics of Nanoparticles Electrode in Theory and Experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yunfeng, Yang; Yongqiang, Xue; Zixiang, Cui; Miaozhi, Zhao

    2014-01-01

    The particle size of electrode materials has a significant influence on the standard electrode potential and the thermodynamic properties of electrode reactions. In this paper, the size-dependent electrochemical thermodynamics has been theoretically investigated and successfully deduced electrochemical thermodynamics equations for nanoparticles electrode. At the same time, the electrode potential and thermodynamical properties of Ag 2 O/Ag nanoparticles electrode constructed by the solid and spherical Ag 2 O nanoparticles with different sizes further testified that the particle size of nanoparticles has a significant effect on electrochemical thermodynamics. The results show that the electrode potential depends on that of the smallest nanoparticle in a nanoparticles electrode which consisted of different particle sizes of nano-Ag 2 O. When the size of Ag 2 O nanoparticles reduces, the standard electrode potentials and the equilibrium constants of the corresponding electrode reactions increase, and the temperature coefficient, the mole Gibbs energy change, the mole enthalpy change and the mole entropy change decrease. Moreover, these physical quantities are all linearly related with the reciprocal of average particle size (r > 10 nm). The experimental regularities coincide with the theoretical equations

  5. Intense laser field effects on a Woods-Saxon potential quantum well

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo, R. L.; Morales, A. L.; Akimov, V.; Tulupenko, V.; Kasapoglu, E.; Ungan, F.; Duque, C. A.

    2015-11-01

    This paper presents the results of the theoretical study of the effects of non-resonant intense laser field and electric and magnetic fields on the optical properties in an quantum well (QW) make with Woods-Saxon potential profile. The electric field and intense laser field are applied along the growth direction of the Woods-Saxon quantum well and the magnetic field is oriented perpendicularly. To calculate the energy and the wave functions of the electron in the Woods-Saxon quantum well, the effective mass approximation and the method of envelope wave function are used. The confinement in the Woods-Saxon quantum well is changed drastically by the application of intense laser field or either the effect of electric and magnetic fields. The optical properties are calculated using the compact density matrix.

  6. Climate change and prairie pothole wetlands: mitigating water-level and hydroperiod effects through upland management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renton, David A.; Mushet, David M.; DeKeyser, Edward S.

    2015-01-01

    Prairie pothole wetlands offer crucial habitat for North America’s waterfowl populations. The wetlands also support an abundance of other species and provide ecological services valued by society. The hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands is dependent on atmospheric interactions. Therefore, changes to the region’s climate can have profound effects on wetland hydrology. The relevant literature related to climate change and upland management effects on prairie pothole wetland water levels and hydroperiods was reviewed. Climate change is widely expected to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole wetlands, as well as the biota and ecological services that the wetlands support. In general, hydrologic model projections that incorporate future climate change scenarios forecast lower water levels in prairie pothole wetlands and longer periods spent in a dry condition, despite potential increases in precipitation. However, the extreme natural variability in climate and hydrology of prairie pothole wetlands necessitates caution when interpreting model results. Recent changes in weather patterns throughout much of the Prairie Pothole Region have been in increased precipitation that results in increased water inputs to wetlands above losses associated with warmer temperatures. However, observed precipitation increases are within the range of natural climate variability and therefore, may not persist. Identifying management techniques with the potential to affect water inputs to prairie pothole wetlands would provide increased options for managers when dealing with the uncertainties associated with a changing climate. Several grassland management techniques (for example, grazing and burning) have the potential to affect water levels and hydroperiods of prairie pothole by affecting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and snow deposition.

  7. Changes in time and frequency related aspects of motor unit action potentials during fatigue

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, W.; Bouwens, Jeroen S.; Baten, Christian T.M.

    1996-01-01

    During fatigue the shape of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) change. Characteristics of the MUAPs described before concern several time related aspects. No attention has been given to the frequency spectrum changes of MUAPS. The median frequency of MUAPS has now been determined for motor units

  8. Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Robert J; Hayden, Brian; Kahilainen, Kimmo K

    2017-06-01

    Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the

  9. Potential effects of gallium on cladding materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, D.F.; Beahm, E.C.; Besmann, T.M.; DeVan, J.H.; DiStefano, J.R.; Gat, U.; Greene, S.R.; Rittenhouse, P.L.; Worley, B.A.

    1997-10-01

    This paper identifies and examines issues concerning the incorporation of gallium in weapons derived plutonium in light water reactor (LWR) MOX fuels. Particular attention is given to the more likely effects of the gallium on the behavior of the cladding material. The chemistry of weapons grade (WG) MOX, including possible consequences of gallium within plutonium agglomerates, was assessed. Based on the calculated oxidation potentials of MOX fuel, the effect that gallium may have on reactions involving fission products and possible impact on cladding performance were postulated. Gallium transport mechanisms are discussed. With an understanding of oxidation potentials and assumptions of mechanisms for gallium transport, possible effects of gallium on corrosion of cladding were evaluated. Potential and unresolved issues and suggested research and development (R and D) required to provide missing information are presented

  10. Skill-Specific Changes in Somatosensory Nogo Potentials in Baseball Players.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koya Yamashiro

    Full Text Available Athletic training is known to induce neuroplastic alterations in specific somatosensory circuits, which are reflected by changes in somatosensory evoked potentials and event-related potentials. The aim of this study was to clarify whether specific athletic training also affects somatosensory Nogo potentials related to the inhibition of movements. The Nogo potentials were recorded at nine cortical electrode positions (Fz, Cz, Pz, F3, F4, C3, C4, P3 and P4 in 12 baseball players (baseball group and in 12 athletes in sports, such as track and field events and swimming, that do not require response inhibition, such as batting for training or performance (sports group. The Nogo potentials and Go/Nogo reaction times (Go/Nogo RTs were measured under a somatosensory Go/Nogo paradigm in which subjects were instructed to rapidly push a button in response to stimulus presentation. The Nogo potentials were obtained by subtracting the Go trial from the Nogo trial. The peak Nogo-N2 was significantly shorter in the baseball group than that in the sports group. In addition, the amplitude of Nogo-N2 in the frontal area was significantly larger in the baseball group than that in the sports group. There was a significant positive correlation between the latency of Nogo-N2 and Go/Nogo RT. Moreover, there were significant correlations between the Go/Nogo RT and both the amplitude of Nogo-N2 and Nogo-P3 (i.e., amplitude of the Nogo-potentials increases with shorter RT. Specific athletic training regimens may induce neuroplastic alterations in sensorimotor inhibitory processes.

  11. Crustal Gravitational Potential Energy Change and Subduction Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, P. P.

    2017-05-01

    Crustal gravitational potential energy (GPE) change induced by earthquakes is an important subject in geophysics and seismology. For the past forty years the research on this subject stayed in the stage of qualitative estimate. In recent few years the 3D dynamic faulting theory provided a quantitative solution of this subject. The theory deduced a quantitative calculating formula for the crustal GPE change using the mathematic method of tensor analysis under the principal stresses system. This formula contains only the vertical principal stress, rupture area, slip, dip, and rake; it does not include the horizontal principal stresses. It is just involved in simple mathematical operations and does not hold complicated surface or volume integrals. Moreover, the hanging wall vertical moving (up or down) height has a very simple expression containing only slip, dip, and rake. The above results are significant to investigate crustal GPE change. Commonly, the vertical principal stress is related to the gravitational field, substituting the relationship between the vertical principal stress and gravitational force into the above formula yields an alternative formula of crustal GPE change. The alternative formula indicates that even with lack of in situ borehole measured stress data, scientists can still quantitatively calculate crustal GPE change. The 3D dynamic faulting theory can be used for research on continental fault earthquakes; it also can be applied to investigate subduction earthquakes between oceanic and continental plates. Subduction earthquakes hold three types: (a) crust only on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (b) crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the rupture area; (c) crust only on the vertical up side of the partial rupture area, and crust and seawater both on the vertical up side of the remaining rupture area. For each type we provide its quantitative formula of the crustal GPE change. We also establish a simplified model (called

  12. The effect of exchange-correlation on change and stability of crystal structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yazdani, A.; Niazi, M.; Alimardan, V.

    2007-01-01

    Since exchange interaction energy has effect on band structure via polarization of spin of free electron, then can directly effects formation crystal structure. Therefore exchange-correlation is able to have an effect on determination of crystal structure or its change and stability. This energy is subject to fluctuation range of electrons between conduction band and valance band or density of electrons which due to increase the entropy of system, via Gibss Energy .We investigated these factors: 1) Size of ions 2) Density of States 3) Range of inter atomic and pair-potential.

  13. Effect of processing on antioxidant potential and total phenolics content in beet (Beta vulgaris L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorivaldo da Silva Raupp

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The antioxidant capacity of beet is associated with non-nutritive constituents, such as phenolic compounds. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of two different heat-processing techniques (drying and canned on the antioxidant potential (ABTS and phenolics content of beets. A forced air circulation dehydrator was used for the drying. Drying at high temperatures (100 + 90 °C/5.6 hours; 90 °C/6 hours increased the antioxidant potential of the processed products while mild drying conditions decreased it (80 °C/6 hours; 100 + 70 °C/6 hours or had no effect on it (70 °C/7 hours; 100 + 80 °C/6 hours. For the canned products, the antioxidant potential did not differ according to the pH (4.2 to 3.8 for any of the four acids tested. Some processing methods influenced the antioxidant potential of the processed products, and this was also dependent on changes in the total phenolics content.

  14. The Potential Connectivity of Waterhole Networks and the Effectiveness of a Protected Area under Various Drought Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’Farrill, Georgina; Gauthier Schampaert, Kim; Rayfield, Bronwyn; Bodin, Örjan; Calmé, Sophie; Sengupta, Raja; Gonzalez, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird’s tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar), to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes) and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes) is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas. PMID:24830392

  15. The potential connectivity of waterhole networks and the effectiveness of a protected area under various drought scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina O'Farrill

    Full Text Available Landscape connectivity is considered a priority for ecosystem conservation because it may mitigate the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat loss. Climate change predictions suggest changes in precipitation regimes, which will affect the availability of water resources, with potential consequences for landscape connectivity. The Greater Calakmul Region of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico has experienced a 16% decrease in precipitation over the last 50 years, which we hypothesise has affected water resource connectivity. We used a network model of connectivity, for three large endangered species (Baird's tapir, white-lipped peccary and jaguar, to assess the effect of drought on waterhole availability and connectivity in a forested landscape inside and adjacent to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. We used reported travel distances and home ranges for our species to establish movement distances in our model. Specifically, we compared the effects of 10 drought scenarios on the number of waterholes (nodes and the subsequent changes in network structure and node importance. Our analysis revealed that drought dramatically influenced spatial structure and potential connectivity of the network. Our results show that waterhole connectivity and suitable habitat (area surrounding waterholes is lost faster inside than outside the reserve for all three study species, an outcome that may drive them outside the reserve boundaries. These results emphasize the need to assess how the variability in the availability of seasonal water resource may affect the viability of animal populations under current climate change inside and outside protected areas.

  16. The potential effects of climate change on the status of Seychelles frogs (Anura: Sooglossidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gerlach

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The status of the Seychelles frogs of the family Sooglossidae was investigated, using monitoring data from 1993-2010, climate data from 1998-2010 and studies of populations and local climate effects. Climate monitoring at each plot covered rainfall and temperature, with leaf wetness and soil moisture being monitored additionally at one site. Analysis of the data and ecological modelling of the distribution identify geographical patterns in climate which explain the present distribution of the different sooglossid species. In addition it identifies a drying trend in the first quarter of the year which corresponds to frog population declines in mid-altitude forests. This is interpreted as evidence of an ongoing deterioration in the suitability of habitats for the frogs, with declines recorded in areas of marginal suitability. By extension it is assumed that currently optimal frog habitat is also undergoing a decline in suitability, due to early year decreases in moisture. Projected changes in climate were used to predict changes in ranges of the sooglossids over the next 90 years. This predicts significant declines, with the possible extinction of the palm frog Sooglossus pipilodryas by 2100. Accordingly all four sooglossid species should be categorised as Endangered, rather than their current status of Vulnerable. Captive assurance colonies have not been successfully established to date. Captive groups have been maintained with a high degree of success but breeding has not been recorded so far. Further work needed for the conservation of the frogs is outlined: development of a reliable method of monitoring the cryptic S. thomasseti and development of captive breeding techniques.

  17. The effect of an auxiliary discharge on anode sheath potentials in a transverse discharge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foster, J.E.; Gallimore, A.D.

    1997-01-01

    A novel scheme that employs the use of an auxiliary discharge has been shown to reduce markedly anode sheath potentials in a transverse discharge. An 8.8 A low-pressure argon discharge in the presence of a transverse magnetic field was used as the plasma source in this study. In such discharges, the transverse flux that is collected by the anode is severely limited due to marked reductions in the transverse diffusion coefficient. Findings of this study indicate that the local electron number density and the transverse flux increase when the auxiliary discharge is operated. Changes in these parameters are reflected in the measured anode sheath voltage. Anode sheath potentials, estimated by using Langmuir probes, were shown to be reduced by over 33% when the auxiliary discharge is operated. These reductions in anode sheath potentials translated into significant reductions in anode power flux as measured using water calorimeter techniques. The reductions in anode power flux also correlate well with changes in the electron transverse flux. Finally, techniques implementing these positive effects in real plasma accelerators are discussed. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  18. Large potential change induced by pellet injection in JIPP T-IIU tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Y.; Sato, K.N.; Sakakita, H.

    1995-05-01

    A large, rapid change in the local plasma potential is found to be induced by off-axis hydrogen ice-pellet injection into a tokamak plasma. The polarity of the rapid change is reversed when the pellet is injected into the upper and lower halves of the poloidal plasma cross-section. This change can be interpreted as being due to the gradient-B drift of particles in the high-density plasmas of the pellet cloud, before the increase of the plasma density due to the ablation becomes uniform on the magnetic surface. (author)

  19. Managing organizational change in nuclear organizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    It is widely recognized that engineering changes, if not properly considered and controlled, can have potentially major safety implications; however, organizational changes can also have potentially major safety implications. This publication is intended to assist the management of nuclear organizations in identifying, planning and implementing organizational change. The driving force for the change may be internal or external. Based on the assumption that any change made within a facility applying nuclear technology has the potential to impact safety and effectiveness, the publication provides a description of the basic principles for managing and implementing the organizational change effectively while remaining focused on safe and reliable operation. The guidance contained in the publication is relevant to all organizational changes within nuclear organizations

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

  1. Plantation forestry in Brazil: the potential impacts of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearnside, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    Most climatic changes predicted to occur in Brazil would replace yields of silvicultural plantations, mainly through increased frequency and severity of droughts brought on by global warming and by reduction of water vapor sources in Amazonia caused by deforestation. Some additional negative effects could result from changes in temperature, and positive effects could result from CO 2 enrichment. The net effects would be negative, forcing the country to expand plantations onto less-productive land, requiring increased plantation area (and consequent economic losses) out of proportion to the climatic change itself. These impacts would affect carbon sequestration and storage consequences of any plans for subsidizing silviculture as a global warming mitigation option. Climate change can be expected to increase the area of plantations needed to supply projected internal demand for and exports of end products from Brazil. June-July-August (dry season) precipitation reductions indicated by simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) correspond to rainfall declines in this critical season of approximately 34% in Amazonia, 39% in Southern Brazil and 61% in the Northeast. As an example, if rainfall in Brazilian plantation areas (most of which are now in Southern Brazil) were to decline by 50%, the area needed in 2050 would expand by an estimated 38% over the constant climate case, bringing the total area to 4.5 times the 1991 area. These large areas of additional plantations imply substantial social and environmental impacts. Further addition of plantation area as a global warming response option would augment these impacts, indicating the need for caution in evaluating carbon sequestration proposals. (author)

  2. Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabachnick, W J

    2010-03-15

    Vector-borne pathogens cause enormous suffering to humans and animals. Many are expanding their range into new areas. Dengue, West Nile and Chikungunya have recently caused substantial human epidemics. Arthropod-borne animal diseases like Bluetongue, Rift Valley fever and African horse sickness pose substantial threats to livestock economies around the world. Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology. Changes in climate will influence arthropod vectors, their life cycles and life histories, resulting in changes in both vector and pathogen distribution and changes in the ability of arthropods to transmit pathogens. Climate can affect the way pathogens interact with both the arthropod vector and the human or animal host. Predicting and mitigating the effects of future changes in the environment like climate change on the complex arthropod-pathogen-host epidemiological cycle requires understanding of a variety of complex mechanisms from the molecular to the population level. Although there has been substantial progress on many fronts the challenges to effectively understand and mitigate the impact of potential changes in the environment on vector-borne pathogens are formidable and at an early stage of development. The challenges will be explored using several arthropod-borne pathogen systems as illustration, and potential avenues to meet the challenges will be presented.

  3. Potential effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on avian habitats and populations in the northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Diane L.

    1994-01-01

    Biotic response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is considerably more complex than an adjustment to changing temperature and precipitation. The fertilization effect carbon dioxide has on some plants, the impact UVB radiation has on health and productivity of organisms, and the resulting changes in competitive balance and trophic structure must also be considered. The intent of this paper is to review direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on wildlife, and to explore possible effects on populations of birds and their habitats in the northern Great Plains.Many of the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases, such as declining plant nutritional value, changes in timing of insect emergence, and fewer and saltier wetlands, foreshadow a decline in avian populations on the Great Plains. However, other possible effects such as increased drought resistance and water use efficiency of vegetation, longer growing seasons, and greater overall plant biomass promise at least some mitigation. Effects of multiple simultaneous perturbations such as can be expected under doubled carbon dioxide scenarios will require substantial basic research to clarify.

  4. Effects of tacrolimus on action potential configuration and transmembrane ion currents in canine ventricular cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, László; Szentandrássy, Norbert; Kistamás, Kornél; Hegyi, Bence; Ruzsnavszky, Ferenc; Váczi, Krisztina; Horváth, Balázs; Magyar, János; Bányász, Tamás; Pál, Balázs; Nánási, Péter P

    2013-03-01

    Tacrolimus is a commonly used immunosuppressive agent which causes cardiovascular complications, e.g., hypertension and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. In spite of it, there is little information on the cellular cardiac effects of the immunosuppressive agent tacrolimus in larger mammals. In the present study, therefore, the concentration-dependent effects of tacrolimus on action potential morphology and the underlying ion currents were studied in canine ventricular cardiomyocytes. Standard microelectrode, conventional whole cell patch clamp, and action potential voltage clamp techniques were applied in myocytes enzymatically dispersed from canine ventricular myocardium. Tacrolimus (3-30 μM) caused a concentration-dependent reduction of maximum velocity of depolarization and repolarization, action potential amplitude, phase-1 repolarization, action potential duration, and plateau potential, while no significant change in the resting membrane potential was observed. Conventional voltage clamp experiments revealed that tacrolimus concentrations ≥3 μM blocked a variety of ion currents, including I(Ca), I(to), I(K1), I(Kr), and I(Ks). Similar results were obtained under action potential voltage clamp conditions. These effects of tacrolimus developed rapidly and were fully reversible upon washout. The blockade of inward currents with the concomitant shortening of action potential duration in canine myocytes is the opposite of those observed previously with tacrolimus in small rodents. It is concluded that although tacrolimus blocks several ion channels at higher concentrations, there is no risk of direct interaction with cardiac ion channels when applying tacrolimus in therapeutic concentrations.

  5. Social Network Change Detection

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    McCulloh, Ian A; Carley, Kathleen M

    2008-01-01

    ... between group members. The ability to systematically, statistically, effectively and efficiently detect these changes has the potential to enable the anticipation of change, provide early warning of change, and enable...

  6. Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies-Barnard, T; Valdes, P J; Singarayer, J S; Pacifico, F M; Jones, C D

    2014-01-01

    Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios’ radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5’s universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims. (letter)

  7. Proprioceptive event related potentials: gating and task effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnfred, Sidse M

    2005-01-01

    The integration of proprioception with vision, touch or audition is considered basic to the developmental formation of perceptions, conceptual objects and the creation of cognitive schemes. Thus, mapping of proprioceptive information processing is important in cognitive research. A stimulus...... of a brisk change of weight on a hand held load elicit a proprioceptive evoked potential (PEP). Here this is used to examine early and late information processing related to weight discrimination by event related potentials (ERP)....

  8. The Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential of Wild Barley (Hordeum spontaneum K.Koch in Iran and the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Karim Mousavi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Invasive species present a major threat to biodiversity, which may be boosted due to the climate change effects, particularly if desired weather conditions allow weed to spread to new areas. Identification of areas climatically suitable to weed establishment can offer great opportunities for stopping or decelerating invasion process. Bioclimatic and species distribution models that relate geographic data of a species to environmental variables have become an important modeling tool in invasion ecology. Although the predicted area by climex as suitable environmental for a species does not mean that, it can necessarily establish there, it does suggest a beneficial knowledge about detecting areas with invasion potential. Taking advantage of climate match index to predict the potential invasion of wild barley grass weed in Iran and other world regions under current climate and different climate change scenarios are the objectives of current research .Identifying suitable environmental areas for invasive species provides an opportunity to prevent or slow down the invasion process Materials and methods Based on the presence intensity index of weeds, the climate of infestation hotspots in the Lorestan province, including Khorramabad (Aymanabad and Rimmelleh region, Dorud, Kuhdasht and Aleshtar, were defined as the favorable climate for wild barley. Wild barley-infected foci climate in Lorestan province was considered as a desirable climate for this weed. Climatic similarity of different regions of the world with the intended zone was evaluated as a criterion of invasion susceptibility of those regions in the current conditions and under climate change scenarios by using Climex model. Results and Discussion Results showed that Kermanshah, Tehran, Hamedan, Kurdistan, Markazi, Qazvin and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari with composite match Index greater than 0.81 in compare to infected area in Lorestan, were the most prone province of Iran for wild

  9. Disentangling the effects of land-use change, climate and CO2 on projected future European habitat types

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehsten, V; Sykes, M.T.; Scott, A.V.; Tzanopoulis, A.; Kallimanis, A.; Verburg, P.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Potts, S.G.; Vogiatzakis, I.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To project the potential European distribution of seven broad habitat categories (needle-leaved, broad-leaved, mixed and mediterranean forest, urban, grassland and cropland) in order to assess effects of land use, climate change and increase in CO2 on predicted habitat changes up to

  10. Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on forests of the United States Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Darius Adams; Tara Barrett

    2010-01-01

    As global climate changes over the next century, forest productivity is expected to change as well. Using PRISM climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 plots, we developed a simultaneous autoregressive model to estimate the impacts of climate change on potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests of the United States. The model, coupled with...

  11. The potential natural vegetation of eastern Africa distribution, conservation and future changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Breugel, Paulo

    and sustainable management of the natural environment. There is therefore an urgent need for information that allow us to assess the current status of the region’s natural environment and to predict how this may change under future climates. This thesis aims to improve our knowledge on natural vegetation...... and how this is likely to change under different climate change scenarios. Chapter 4 presents an environmental gap analysis to prioritize conservation efforts in eastern Africa, based on an evaluation of the environmental representativeness of protected areas and an assessment of the level of threat...... distribution in eastern African, examine how this may change under future climates, and how this can be used to identify conservation priorities in the region. Chapter 1 presents a brief overview of the concept of the potential natural vegetation (PNV), synthesizes the general findings and discusses future...

  12. Effective potential in Lorentz-breaking field theory models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeta Scarpelli, A.P. [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica, Nova Gameleira Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Setor Tecnico-Cientifico, Departamento de Policia Federal, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Brito, L.C.T. [Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Fisica, Lavras, MG (Brazil); Felipe, J.C.C. [Universidade Federal de Lavras, Departamento de Fisica, Lavras, MG (Brazil); Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Instituto de Engenharia, Ciencia e Tecnologia, Veredas, Janauba, MG (Brazil); Nascimento, J.R.; Petrov, A.Yu. [Universidade Federal da Paraiba, Departamento de Fisica, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)

    2017-12-15

    We calculate explicitly the one-loop effective potential in different Lorentz-breaking field theory models. First, we consider a Yukawa-like theory and some examples of Lorentz-violating extensions of scalar QED. We observe, for the extended QED models, that the resulting effective potential converges to the known result in the limit in which Lorentz symmetry is restored. Besides, the one-loop corrections to the effective potential in all the cases we study depend on the background tensors responsible for the Lorentz-symmetry violation. This has consequences for physical quantities like, for example, in the induced mass due to the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism. (orig.)

  13. Effective potential in Lorentz-breaking field theory models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeta Scarpelli, A.P.; Brito, L.C.T.; Felipe, J.C.C.; Nascimento, J.R.; Petrov, A.Yu.

    2017-01-01

    We calculate explicitly the one-loop effective potential in different Lorentz-breaking field theory models. First, we consider a Yukawa-like theory and some examples of Lorentz-violating extensions of scalar QED. We observe, for the extended QED models, that the resulting effective potential converges to the known result in the limit in which Lorentz symmetry is restored. Besides, the one-loop corrections to the effective potential in all the cases we study depend on the background tensors responsible for the Lorentz-symmetry violation. This has consequences for physical quantities like, for example, in the induced mass due to the Coleman-Weinberg mechanism. (orig.)

  14. The limits and potential of community development for personal and social change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, J

    1989-01-01

    Some health and welfare workers are making claims for community development which are both unrealistic and misleading. By tracing the history and public policy use of community development and by defining its characteristics, much of the mystique which surrounds this intervention is eliminated. Community development is revealed in this paper to have potential in the areas of personal and planned social change. However, community development's contribution to fundamental social change is circumscribed by the nature of government sponsorship and by its very process which emphasizes parochialism and the generation of self reliance.

  15. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumortier, Jerome; Hayes, Dermot J; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Fabiosa, Jacinto F; Dong, Fengxia; Du Xiaodong; Martin, Pamela A; Mulik, Kranti

    2012-01-01

    We couple a global agricultural production and trade model with a greenhouse gas model to assess leakage associated with modified beef production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and crop management) as well as from land-use change, especially grazing system, are assessed. We find that a reduction of US beef production induces net carbon emissions from global land-use change ranging from 37 to 85 kg CO 2 -equivalent per kg of beef annualized over 20 years. The increase in emissions is caused by an inelastic domestic demand as well as more land-intensive cattle production systems internationally. Changes in livestock production systems such as increasing stocking rate could partially offset emission increases from pasture expansion. In addition, net emissions from enteric fermentation increase because methane emissions per kilogram of beef tend to be higher globally. (letter)

  16. Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

    2016-01-01

    The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate

  17. The Second Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kao, Shih-Chieh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ashfaq, Moetasim [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Naz, Bibi S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Uria Martinez, Rocio [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rastogi, Deeksha [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mei, Rui [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jager, Yetta [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Samu, Nicole M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Sale, Michael J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Hydropower is a key contributor to the US renewable energy portfolio due to its established development history and the diverse benefits it provides to the electric power system. Ensuring the sustainable operation of existing hydropower facilities is of great importance to the US renewable energy portfolio and the reliability of electricity grid. As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act (SWA) of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, has prepared a second quinquennial report on examining the potential effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Technical Memorandum, referred to as the 9505 assessment, describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SWA. To evaluate the potential climate change effects on 132 federal hydropower plants across the entire US, a spatially consistent assessment approach is designed to enable an interregional comparison. This assessment uses a series of models and methods with different spatial resolutions to gradually downscale the global climate change signals into watershed-scale hydrologic projections to support hydropower impact assessment. A variety of historic meteorological and hydrologic observations, hydropower facility characteristics, and geospatial datasets is collected to support model development, calibration, and verification. Among most of the federal hydropower plants throughout the US, the most important climate change effect on hydrology is likely to be the trend toward earlier snowmelt and change of runoff seasonality. Under the projections of increasing winter/spring runoff and decreasing summer/fall runoff, water resource managers may need to consider different water use allocations. With the

  18. SHADOW EFFECT ON PHOTOVOLTAIC POTENTIALITY ANALYSIS USING 3D CITY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Alam

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to global warming, green-house effect and various other drawbacks of existing energy sources, renewable energy like Photovoltaic system is being popular for energy production. The result of photovoltaic potentiality analysis depends on data quality and parameters. Shadow rapidly decreases performance of the Photovoltaic system and it always changes due to the movement of the sun. Solar radiation incident on earth's atmosphere is relatively constant but the radiation at earth's surface varies due to absorption, scattering, reflection, change in spectral content, diffuse component, water vapor, clouds and pollution etc. In this research, it is being investigated that how efficiently real-time shadow can be detected for both direct and diffuse radiation considering reflection and other factors in contrast with the existing shadow detection methods using latest technologies and what is the minimum quality of data required for this purpose. Of course, geometric details of the building geometry and surroundings directly affect the calculation of shadows. In principle, 3D city models or point clouds, which contain roof structure, vegetation, thematically differentiated surface and texture, are suitable to simulate exact real-time shadow. This research would develop an automated procedure to measure exact shadow effect from the 3D city models and a long-term simulation model to determine the produced energy from the photovoltaic system. In this paper, a developed method for detecting shadow for direct radiation has been discussed with its result using a 3D city model to perform a solar energy potentiality analysis.

  19. Effective potential for heavy quark antiquark bound system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barik, B K; Deo, B B

    1985-12-01

    A heavy quark antiquark potential is suggested connecting asymptotic freedom and quark confinement in a unified way. The ..cap alpha../sub g/(q/sup 2/) calculated using Borel summation technique with three loop agrees with the two loop ..beta..-function up to g/sup 2//4..pi.. -- 1.1 but changes appreciably after g/sup 2//4..pi.. = 1.5. The potential so derived satisfactorily explains the c overlined c and b overlined b spectrum. 13 refs., 4 figures, 3 tables.

  20. A roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiadi, R.

    2018-03-01

    This paper outlines a roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation built from our practical understanding of the evidence and effects of climate change and the preparation of climate change adaptation strategies and plans. This roadmap aims to drive research in achieving fruitful knowledge and solution-based achievable recommendations in adapting to climate change in urban areas with effective and systematic manner. This paper underscores the importance of the interplay between local government initiatives and a national government for effective adaptation to climate change and takes into account the policy process and politics. This paper argues that effective urban climate change adaptation has a contribution to build urban resilience and helps the achievement of national government goals and targets in climate change adaptation.

  1. Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1999-07-01

    The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

  2. Oxidative shift in tissue redox potential increases beat-to-beat variability of action potential duration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistamás, Kornél; Hegyi, Bence; Váczi, Krisztina; Horváth, Balázs; Bányász, Tamás; Magyar, János; Szentandrássy, Norbert; Nánási, Péter P

    2015-07-01

    Profound changes in tissue redox potential occur in the heart under conditions of oxidative stress frequently associated with cardiac arrhythmias. Since beat-to-beat variability (short term variability, SV) of action potential duration (APD) is a good indicator of arrhythmia incidence, the aim of this work was to study the influence of redox changes on SV in isolated canine ventricular cardiomyocytes using a conventional microelectrode technique. The redox potential was shifted toward a reduced state using a reductive cocktail (containing dithiothreitol, glutathione, and ascorbic acid) while oxidative changes were initiated by superfusion with H2O2. Redox effects were evaluated as changes in "relative SV" determined by comparing SV changes with the concomitant APD changes. Exposure of myocytes to the reductive cocktail decreased SV significantly without any detectable effect on APD. Application of H2O2 increased both SV and APD, but the enhancement of SV was the greater, so relative SV increased. Longer exposure to H2O2 resulted in the development of early afterdepolarizations accompanied by tremendously increased SV. Pretreatment with the reductive cocktail prevented both elevation in relative SV and the development of afterdepolarizations. The results suggest that the increased beat-to-beat variability during an oxidative stress contributes to the generation of cardiac arrhythmias.

  3. Potential Effects of Horizontal Gene Exchange in the Human Gut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Aaron; Matthias, Torsten; Aminov, Rustam

    2017-01-01

    Many essential functions of the human body are dependent on the symbiotic microbiota, which is present at especially high numbers and diversity in the gut. This intricate host-microbe relationship is a result of the long-term coevolution between the two. While the inheritance of mutational changes in the host evolution is almost exclusively vertical, the main mechanism of bacterial evolution is horizontal gene exchange. The gut conditions, with stable temperature, continuous food supply, constant physicochemical conditions, extremely high concentration of microbial cells and phages, and plenty of opportunities for conjugation on the surfaces of food particles and host tissues, represent one of the most favorable ecological niches for horizontal gene exchange. Thus, the gut microbial system genetically is very dynamic and capable of rapid response, at the genetic level, to selection, for example, by antibiotics. There are many other factors to which the microbiota may dynamically respond including lifestyle, therapy, diet, refined food, food additives, consumption of pre- and probiotics, and many others. The impact of the changing selective pressures on gut microbiota, however, is poorly understood. Presumably, the gut microbiome responds to these changes by genetic restructuring of gut populations, driven mainly via horizontal gene exchange. Thus, our main goal is to reveal the role played by horizontal gene exchange in the changing landscape of the gastrointestinal microbiome and potential effect of these changes on human health in general and autoimmune diseases in particular.

  4. Potential Effects of Horizontal Gene Exchange in the Human Gut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Lerner

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Many essential functions of the human body are dependent on the symbiotic microbiota, which is present at especially high numbers and diversity in the gut. This intricate host–microbe relationship is a result of the long-term coevolution between the two. While the inheritance of mutational changes in the host evolution is almost exclusively vertical, the main mechanism of bacterial evolution is horizontal gene exchange. The gut conditions, with stable temperature, continuous food supply, constant physicochemical conditions, extremely high concentration of microbial cells and phages, and plenty of opportunities for conjugation on the surfaces of food particles and host tissues, represent one of the most favorable ecological niches for horizontal gene exchange. Thus, the gut microbial system genetically is very dynamic and capable of rapid response, at the genetic level, to selection, for example, by antibiotics. There are many other factors to which the microbiota may dynamically respond including lifestyle, therapy, diet, refined food, food additives, consumption of pre- and probiotics, and many others. The impact of the changing selective pressures on gut microbiota, however, is poorly understood. Presumably, the gut microbiome responds to these changes by genetic restructuring of gut populations, driven mainly via horizontal gene exchange. Thus, our main goal is to reveal the role played by horizontal gene exchange in the changing landscape of the gastrointestinal microbiome and potential effect of these changes on human health in general and autoimmune diseases in particular.

  5. Research on climate effects. Effects of climate changes. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, W.; Stein, G.

    1991-01-01

    Global changes affecting the earth are at the forefront of public interest, possibly caused by climate alterations amongst other things. The public expects appropriate measures from politics to successfully adapt to unavoidable climate changes. As well as an investigation into the causes of climatic changes and the corollaries between the different scientific phenomena, the effects on the economy and society must also be examined. The Federal Minister for Research and Technology aims to make a valuable German contribution to international Global Change Research with the focal point ''Effects of Climate Changes on the Ecological and Civil System''. The aim of the workshop was to give an outline of current scientific knowledge, sketch out research requirements and give recommendations on the focal point with regard to the BMFT. (orig.) [de

  6. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics. Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO2 Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees. Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation. In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

  7. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  8. Role of action potential configuration and the contribution of Ca2+ and K+ currents to isoprenaline-induced changes in canine ventricular cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szentandrássy, N; Farkas, V; Bárándi, L; Hegyi, B; Ruzsnavszky, F; Horváth, B; Bányász, T; Magyar, J; Márton, I; Nánási, PP

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Although isoprenaline (ISO) is known to activate several ion currents in mammalian myocardium, little is known about the role of action potential morphology in the ISO-induced changes in ion currents. Therefore, the effects of ISO on action potential configuration, L-type Ca2+ current (ICa), slow delayed rectifier K+ current (IKs) and fast delayed rectifier K+ current (IKr) were studied and compared in a frequency-dependent manner using canine isolated ventricular myocytes from various transmural locations. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH Action potentials were recorded with conventional sharp microelectrodes; ion currents were measured using conventional and action potential voltage clamp techniques. KEY RESULTS In myocytes displaying a spike-and-dome action potential configuration (epicardial and midmyocardial cells), ISO caused reversible shortening of action potentials accompanied by elevation of the plateau. ISO-induced action potential shortening was absent in endocardial cells and in myocytes pretreated with 4-aminopyridine. Application of the IKr blocker E-4031 failed to modify the ISO effect, while action potentials were lengthened by ISO in the presence of the IKs blocker HMR-1556. Both action potential shortening and elevation of the plateau were prevented by pretreatment with the ICa blocker nisoldipine. Action potential voltage clamp experiments revealed a prominent slowly inactivating ICa followed by a rise in IKs, both currents increased with increasing the cycle length. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The effect of ISO in canine ventricular cells depends critically on action potential configuration, and the ISO-induced activation of IKs– but not IKr– may be responsible for the observed shortening of action potentials. PMID:22563726

  9. Effective potentials in gauge field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caldas, P.S.S.; Fleming, H.; Garcia, R.L.

    An elementary and very efficient method for computing the effective potential of any theory containing scalar bosons is described. Examples include massless scalar electrodynamics and Yang-Mills theories [pt

  10. Carbon dioxide effects research and assessment program. Measurement of changes in terrestrial carbon using remote sensing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodwell, G M [ed.

    1980-09-01

    Changes in the area of forests as well as changes in the storage of carbon within forest stands have large potential effects on atmospheric CO/sub 2/. This conference addressed the challenge of measuring changes in the area of forests globally through use of satellite remote sensing. The conclusion of the approximately seventy participants from around the world was that a program based on LANDSAT imagery supplemented by aerial photography is both possible and appropriate.

  11. A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

    OpenAIRE

    Berghuijs, Wouter; Larsen, Joshua; van Emmerik, Tim; Woods, Ross

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the most important cause for temporal changes in mean runoff and how this degree of importance varies regionally. We show that previous global assessments that address these questions do not properly account for changes due to...

  12. Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

    2018-01-01

    Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

  13. Potential climate change impacts on a tropical estuary: Hilo Bay, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolf, J.; LaPinta, J.; Marusek, J.; Pascoe, K.; Pugh, A.

    2016-02-01

    Hilo Bay is a tropical estuarine ecosystem on the northeast (windward) coast of Hawai`i Island that is potentially vulnerable to climate change effects mediated through elevated water temperatures and/or changing rainfall patterns that impact river and groundwater fluxes. Here, we document trends in water temperature, river flow and phytoplankton dynamics in Hilo Bay. Hilo Bay is fed by two major rivers, Wailuku and Honoli`i, both of which have shown long term declines in output over their 85 and 38 year monitoring periods (USGS), respectively. Time series of groundwater inputs to Hilo Bay do not exist, but the average estimated rate rivals that of average river inputs. Daily average Hilo Bay water temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.35 degrees C per year (p Hilo Bay water quality buoy began in 2010, with the warmest temperatures on record recorded Sept 2015. Salinity did not show a trend over this same time period. Phytoplankton showed a pronounced seasonal cycle in Hilo Bay with a long term average of 3.7 mg m-3 and dominance by diatoms that exploit the co-availability of silica and nitrate in this environment. On shorter time scales of days to Hilo Bay salinity, temperature and phytoplankton biomass. Coincidental atmospheric warming, SST warming in the adjacent North Pacific ocean, and declining river flows will likely work together to result in elevated SST in Hilo Bay if observed trends continue. The El Nino event that started this year is expected to exacerbate this warming through reduce river flow and warmer regional SST.

  14. Challenging the claims on the potential of biochar to mitigate climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Francischinelli Rittl, T.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    In this PhD thesis I studied the influence of biochar discourses on the political practices in Brazil and the impact of biochar on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, thus contributing to the current debate on the potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Biochar is the solid

  15. Effect of sulfhydryls on potentiation of radiation-induced cell lethality by substituted anthraquinones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimler, B.F.

    1984-01-01

    The effects of various substituted anthraquinones (SAQ's) and Adriamycin (ADR) were investigated in cultured Chinese hamster V79 cells. These drugs cause a potentiation of radiation-induced cell lethality, albeit by different mechanisms. One possibility is that these components operate through the production of free radicals which then produce DNA strand breaks and crosslinks. If so, then one should be able to change the degree of cell kill by modifying sulfhydryl (SH) levels such that free radical processes are altered. Diamide, buthionine-S, R-sulfoximine, and N-ethylmaleimide (NEM) were used to reduce intracellular SH levels. Cysteamine and dithiotheitol were used to increase SH levels. In general, altered SH levels did not affect SAQ-induced cytotoxicity at low drug concentrations. When drug-tested cells were also irradiated, survival levels were generally those predicted from assuming purely additive interactions. On the other hand, survival after treatment with high concentrations of ADR and one other SAQ were decreased by concomitant treatment with NEM. Since altered SH levels do not produce changes in the potentiation of radiation-induced cell lethality by SAQs, it is concluded that free radicals are not involved in this potentiation. A free radical-mediated process may be involved in the cytotoxicity induced by ADR and other SAQs; however, it is not a simple process

  16. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  17. Piezoelectric potential gated field-effect transistor based on a free-standing ZnO wire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fei, Peng; Yeh, Ping-Hung; Zhou, Jun; Xu, Sheng; Gao, Yifan; Song, Jinhui; Gu, Yudong; Huang, Yanyi; Wang, Zhong Lin

    2009-10-01

    We report an external force triggered field-effect transistor based on a free-standing piezoelectric fine wire (PFW). The device consists of an Ag source electrode and an Au drain electrode at two ends of a ZnO PFW, which were separated by an insulating polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) thin layer. The working principle of the sensor is proposed based on the piezoelectric potential gating effect. Once subjected to a mechanical impact, the bent ZnO PFW cantilever creates a piezoelectric potential distribution across it width at its root and simultaneously produces a local reverse depletion layer with much higher donor concentration than normal, which can dramatically change the current flowing from the source electrode to drain electrode when the device is under a fixed voltage bias. Due to the free-standing structure of the sensor device, it has a prompt response time less than 20 ms and quite high and stable sensitivity of 2%/microN. The effect from contact resistance has been ruled out.

  18. Hydrologic Effects of Global Climate Change on a Large Drained Pine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Ge Sun; R. W. Skaggs; G. M Chescheir; J. E. Nettles

    2006-01-01

    A simulation study using a watershed scale forest hydrology model (DRAINWAT) was conducted to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the hydrology of a 3,000 ha managed pine forest in coastal North Carolina. The model was first validated with a five-year (1996-2000) data set fro111 the study site and then run with 50-years (1951-00) of historic weather data...

  19. Effective Kratzer and Coulomb potentials as limit cases of a multiparameter exponential-type potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    García-Ravelo, J., E-mail: g.ravelo@hotmail.com [Departamento de Física, Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Edificio 9, Unidad Profesional Adolfo López Mateos, México D.F., 07738 (Mexico); Menéndez, A.; García-Martínez, J. [Departamento de Física, Escuela Superior de Física y Matemáticas, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Edificio 9, Unidad Profesional Adolfo López Mateos, México D.F., 07738 (Mexico); Schulze-Halberg, A. [Department of Mathematics and Actuarial Science and Department of Physics, Indiana University Northwest, 3400 Broadway, Gary, IN 46408 (United States)

    2014-06-13

    We show that the effective Kratzer and Coulomb potentials can be obtained by taking particular limits of a multiparameter exponential potential that was studied recently. Moreover, we demonstrate that the bound state solutions of the exponential potential reduce correctly to their well-known counterparts associated with the Kratzer and Coulomb potentials. As a byproduct, we obtain a new limit relation for the hypergeometric function. - Highlights: • Kratzer and Coulomb potentials are limit cases of an exponential-type potential. • From exact s-waves, approximate solutions for l-waves are obtained. • l-waves of the potential tend to the solutions of the Kratzer and Coulomb potentials. • A non-evident identity between hypergeometric functions is demonstrated.

  20. Effective Kratzer and Coulomb potentials as limit cases of a multiparameter exponential-type potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Ravelo, J.; Menéndez, A.; García-Martínez, J.; Schulze-Halberg, A.

    2014-01-01

    We show that the effective Kratzer and Coulomb potentials can be obtained by taking particular limits of a multiparameter exponential potential that was studied recently. Moreover, we demonstrate that the bound state solutions of the exponential potential reduce correctly to their well-known counterparts associated with the Kratzer and Coulomb potentials. As a byproduct, we obtain a new limit relation for the hypergeometric function. - Highlights: • Kratzer and Coulomb potentials are limit cases of an exponential-type potential. • From exact s-waves, approximate solutions for l-waves are obtained. • l-waves of the potential tend to the solutions of the Kratzer and Coulomb potentials. • A non-evident identity between hypergeometric functions is demonstrated

  1. Potential effects of earthworms on leaf-chewer performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Newington, J.E.; Setälä, H.; Bezemer, T.M.; Jones, T.H.

    2004-01-01

    Detritivores affect plant performance and therefore have the potential indirectly to affect above-ground herbivore populations. 2. In a microcosm study we asked whether changes in the performance of two plant species, Cardamine hirsuta L. and Veronica persica Poiret., arising from the activity of

  2. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  3. Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brian C. O' Neill

    2006-08-09

    This report describes results of the research project on "Improving Demographic Components of Integrated Assessment Models: The Effect of Changes in Population Composition by Household Characteristics". The overall objective of this project was to improve projections of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions by taking into account demographic factors currently not incorporated in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of global climate change. We proposed to examine the potential magnitude of effects on energy demand of changes in the composition of populations by household characteristics for three countries: the U.S., China, and Indonesia. For each country, we planned to analyze household energy use survey data to estimate relationships between household characteristics and energy use; develop a new set of detailed household projections for each country; and combine these analyses to produce new projections of energy demand illustrating the potential importance of consideration of households.

  4. Temporal changes in potential regulating ecosystem services driven by urbanization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Carla; Amorim, Inês; Pires, Evanilton; Kalantari, Zahra; Walsh, Rory; Ferreira, António

    2017-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ES) are understood to be the capacity of the landscape of a particular area to provide goods and services to society. In terms of human benefits, four categories of ES are usually considered: provisioning (e.g. seafood), regulating (e.g. climate regulation, air quality, water purification and natural hazard protection), supporting (e.g. maintenance of biodiversity), and cultural (e.g. recreation). The potential supply of ecosystem services has receive increasing interest as a tool for natural resource management. Nevertheless, the capacity to supply ES depends on biophysical conditions, as well as climate and land-use changes, induced by human activities. This study aims to investigate the potential for regulating ecosystem service supply of a Portuguese peri-urban catchment, and attempts to understand the temporal changes in ES over the last decades driven by urbanization. The study was developed in Ribeira dos Covões catchment (6.2 km2), in Portugal. Due to its proximity to Coimbra, a major city in the central region of Portugal, the catchment has undergone major land-use changes over the last half-century. Since 1958, the agricultural area, comprising mainly olives and arable land, has declined from 48% to 4%, due to increases in urban land (from 8% to 40%) and forest (from 44% to 53%), as well as a temporary creation of open spaces (from 0% to 3%). The nature of forest cover also changed, from native species, such as oaks (Quercus sp.), to commercial timber plantations, mostly of Pinus pinaster L. and Eucaliptus globulus L.. Urbanization became more pronounced after 1973, exhibiting a discontinuous pattern until 1995, and then later more continuous urban areas through the infilling of areas between the earlier urban cores. Quantification of regulating ES in the study catchment was achieved using GIS techniques, in order to gain a spatial dimension of ES distribution (Burkhard et al., 2009). Mapping ecosystem service capacities at a 5×5m

  5. Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanathan, V.; Callis, L.; Cess, R.; Hansen, J.; Isaksen, I.

    1987-01-01

    The paper considers trace gas-climate effects including the greenhouse effect of polyatomic trace gases, the nature of the radiative-chemical interactions, and radiative-dynamical interactions in the stratosphere, and the role of these effects in governing stratospheric climate change. Special consideration is given to recent developments in the investigations of the role of oceans in governing the transient climate responses, and a time-dependent estimate of the potential trace gas warming from the preindustrial era to the early 21st century. The importance of interacting modeling and observational efforts is emphasized. One of the problems remaining on the observational front is the lack of certainty in current estimates of the rate of growth of CO, O3, and NOx; the primary challenge is the design of a strategy that will minimize the sampling errors.

  6. Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Swanson, Richard; McCluskey, Alyssa; Neumann, James E.; McFarland, James; Martinich, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Analyze contiguous U.S. hydropower generation under various emissions scenarios. • Employ systems model that allocates water to competing uses in 2119 river basins. • Average U.S. generation increases under climate change, but falls under low flows. • Mitigation benefits are $2-$4 billion/year due to high values of carbon-free energy. - Abstract: Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues and consumer expenditures. We analyze the physical and economic effects of changes in hydropower generation for the contiguous U.S. in futures with and without global-scale greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, and across patterns from 18 General Circulation Models. Using a monthly water resources systems model of 2119 river basins that routes simulated river runoff through reservoirs, and allocates water to potentially conflicting and climate dependent demands, we provide a first-order estimate of the impacts of various projected emissions outcomes on hydropower generation, and monetize these impacts using outputs from an electric sector planning model for over 500 of the largest U.S. hydropower facilities. We find that, due to generally increasing river runoff under higher emissions scenarios in the Pacific Northwest, climate change tends to increase overall hydropower generation in the contiguous U.S. During low flow months, generation tends to fall with increasing emissions, potentially threatening the estimated low flow, firm energy from hydropower. Although global GHG mitigation slows the growth in hydropower generation, the higher value placed on carbon-free hydropower leads to annual economic benefits ranging from $1.8 billion to $4.3 billion. The present value of these benefits to the U.S. from global greenhouse gas

  7. Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change

  8. The mean and variance of climate change in the oceans: hidden evolutionary potential under stochastic environmental variability in marine sticklebacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shama, Lisa N S

    2017-08-21

    Increasing climate variability may pose an even greater risk to species than climate warming because temperature fluctuations can amplify adverse impacts of directional warming on fitness-related traits. Here, the influence of directional warming and increasing climate variability on marine stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) offspring size variation was investigated by simulating changes to the mean and variance of ocean temperatures predicted under climate change. Reproductive traits of mothers and offspring size reaction norms across four climate scenarios were examined to assess the roles of standing genetic variation, transgenerational and within-generation plasticity in adaptive potential. Mothers acclimated to directional warming produced smaller eggs than mothers in constant, ambient temperatures, whereas mothers in a predictably variable environment (weekly change between temperatures) produced a range of egg sizes, possibly reflecting a diversified bet hedging strategy. Offspring size post-hatch was mostly influenced by genotype by environment interactions and not transgenerational effects. Offspring size reaction norms also differed depending on the type of environmental predictability (predictably variable vs. stochastic), with offspring reaching the largest sizes in the stochastic environment. Release of cryptic genetic variation for offspring size in the stochastic environment suggests hidden evolutionary potential in this wild population to respond to changes in environmental predictability.

  9. Mediation of rapid electrical, metabolic, transpirational, and photosynthetic changes by factors released from wounds. I. variation potentials and putative action potentials in intact plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.J. Barres; T.J.Sambeek Perry; Barbara G. Pickard

    1976-01-01

    Damaging representative plants from five angiosperm families by heating or crushing a small portion of a single leaf results in an electrical change which may spread throughout the shoot. In Mimosa similar changes have previously been identified as variation potentials.Except in one of the five plants, a variation...

  10. The effects of climatic change on crop production. Results of a five-year research project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mela, T; Carter, T; Hakala, K; Kaukoranta, T; Laurila, H; Niemi, K; Saarikko, R; Tiilikkala, K [Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, Jokioinen (Finland); Hannukkala, A [Agricultural Research Centre, Rovaniemi (Finland). Lapland Research Station

    1997-12-31

    The aim of this research project, funded jointly by SILMU and by the Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, was to evaluate the possible effects of changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration on the growth, development and yield of field crops and on crop pests and diseases in Finland. The study focused on two cereal crops (spring wheat and spring barley), a grass species (meadow fescue), some common pathogens of cereals and potato, insect pests of small fruits and nematode risk of potato and sugar beet. The results of this study indicate the following effects on crop production of the `best guess` climate change anticipated for Finland by 2050: A lengthening of the potential growing season of 3-5 weeks. A northward expansion of about 250-500 km in suitability for cereal production. Increased yields of adapted spring cereals. New, longer-season cultivars would benefit from both higher temperatures and elevated CO{sub 2}. Improved potential for the cultivation of higher-yielding winter sown cereals. Increased grass yields due to a lengthening growing season and increased growth rates, assuming that water and nutrient limitations are minor. However, there is a possibility of reduced winter hardening under higher autumn temperatures and an increased risk of winter damage. Potential for the successful cultivation of new crops like maize in southern Finland. Increased potential for yield losses due to crop pests and diseases under climatic warming. The range of many species is expected to expand northwards, additional generations of some species would develop successfully, and new species may become established in Finland. The research is continuing as part of a new European Community project, and will explore a wider range of crop types, focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk at national scale

  11. The effects of climatic change on crop production. Results of a five-year research project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mela, T.; Carter, T.; Hakala, K.; Kaukoranta, T.; Laurila, H.; Niemi, K.; Saarikko, R.; Tiilikkala, K. [Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, Jokioinen (Finland); Hannukkala, A. [Agricultural Research Centre, Rovaniemi (Finland). Lapland Research Station

    1996-12-31

    The aim of this research project, funded jointly by SILMU and by the Agricultural Research Centre of Finland, was to evaluate the possible effects of changes in climate and carbon dioxide concentration on the growth, development and yield of field crops and on crop pests and diseases in Finland. The study focused on two cereal crops (spring wheat and spring barley), a grass species (meadow fescue), some common pathogens of cereals and potato, insect pests of small fruits and nematode risk of potato and sugar beet. The results of this study indicate the following effects on crop production of the `best guess` climate change anticipated for Finland by 2050: A lengthening of the potential growing season of 3-5 weeks. A northward expansion of about 250-500 km in suitability for cereal production. Increased yields of adapted spring cereals. New, longer-season cultivars would benefit from both higher temperatures and elevated CO{sub 2}. Improved potential for the cultivation of higher-yielding winter sown cereals. Increased grass yields due to a lengthening growing season and increased growth rates, assuming that water and nutrient limitations are minor. However, there is a possibility of reduced winter hardening under higher autumn temperatures and an increased risk of winter damage. Potential for the successful cultivation of new crops like maize in southern Finland. Increased potential for yield losses due to crop pests and diseases under climatic warming. The range of many species is expected to expand northwards, additional generations of some species would develop successfully, and new species may become established in Finland. The research is continuing as part of a new European Community project, and will explore a wider range of crop types, focusing on the effects of climate change on agricultural risk at national scale

  12. Time-related changes in firing rates are influenced by recruitment threshold and twitch force potentiation in the first dorsal interosseous.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jonathan D; Herda, Trent J; Trevino, Michael A; Sterczala, Adam J; Ciccone, Anthony B

    2017-08-01

    What is the central question of this study? The influences of motor unit recruitment threshold and twitch force potentiation on the changes in firing rates during steady-force muscular contractions are not well understood. What is the main finding and its importance? The behaviour of motor units during steady force was influenced by recruitment threshold, such that firing rates decreased for lower-threshold motor units but increased for higher-threshold motor units. In addition, individuals with greater changes in firing rates possessed greater twitch force potentiation. There are contradictory reports regarding changes in motor unit firing rates during steady-force contractions. Inconsistencies are likely to be the result of previous studies disregarding motor unit recruitment thresholds and not examining firing rates on a subject-by-subject basis. It is hypothesized that firing rates are manipulated by twitch force potentiation during contractions. Therefore, in this study we examined time-related changes in firing rates at steady force in relationship to motor unit recruitment threshold in the first dorsal interosseous and the influence of twitch force potentiation on such changes in young versus aged individuals. Subjects performed a 12 s steady-force contraction at 50% maximal voluntary contraction, with evoked twitches before and after the contraction to quantify potentiation. Firing rates, in relationship to recruitment thresholds, were determined at the beginning, middle and end of the steady force. There were no firing rate changes for aged individuals. For the young, firing rates decreased slightly for lower-threshold motor units but increased for higher-threshold motor units. Twitch force potentiation was greater for young than aged subjects, and changes in firing rates were correlated with twitch force potentiation. Thus, individuals with greater increases in firing rates of higher-threshold motor units and decreases in lower-threshold motor units

  13. Changing oxidoreduction potential to improve water-soluble yellow pigment production with Monascus ruber CGMCC 10910.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Tao; Tan, Hailing; Lu, Fangju; Chen, Gong; Wu, Zhenqiang

    2017-11-21

    Monascus pigments are widely used in the food and pharmaceutical industries due to their safety to human health. Our previous study found that glucose concentration induced extracellular oxidoreduction potential (ORP) changes could influence extracellular water-soluble yellow pigment production by Monascus ruber CGMCC 10910 in submerged fermentation. In this study, H 2 O 2 and dithiothreitol (DTT) were used to change the oxidoreduction potential for investigating the effects of oxidative or reductive substances on Monascus yellow pigment production by Monascus ruber CGMCC 10910. The extracellular ORP could be controlled by H 2 O 2 and DTT. Both cell growth and extracellular water-soluble yellow pigment production were enhanced under H 2 O 2 -induced oxidative (HIO) conditions and were inhibited under dithiothreitol-induced reductive conditions. By optimizing the amount of H 2 O 2 added and the timing of the addition, the yield of extracellular water-soluble yellow pigments significantly increased and reached a maximum of 209 AU, when 10 mM H 2 O 2 was added on the 3rd day of fermentation with M. ruber CGMCC 10910. Under HIO conditions, the ratio of NADH/NAD+ was much lower than that in the control group, and the expression levels of relative pigment biosynthesis genes were up-regulated; moreover, the activity of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) was increased while 6-phosphofructokinase (PFK) activity was inhibited. Oxidative conditions induced by H 2 O 2 increased water-soluble yellow pigment accumulation via up-regulation of the expression levels of relative genes and by increasing the precursors of pigment biosynthesis through redirection of metabolic flux. In contrast, reductive conditions induced by dithiothreitol inhibited yellow pigment accumulation. This experiment provides a potential strategy for improving the production of Monascus yellow pigments.

  14. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2013-11-19

    Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.

  15. Search for Effects of an Electrostatic Potential on Clocks in the Frame of Reference of a Charged Particle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringermacher, Harry I.; Conradi, Mark S.; Cassenti, Brice

    2005-01-01

    Results of experiments to confirm a theory that links classical electromagnetism with the geometry of spacetime are described. The theory, based on the introduction of a Torsion tensor into Einstein s equations and following the approach of Schroedinger, predicts effects on clocks attached to charged particles, subject to intense electric fields, analogous to the effects on clocks in a gravitational field. We show that in order to interpret this theory, one must re-interpret all clock changes, both gravitational and electromagnetic, as arising from changes in potential energy and not merely potential. The clock is provided naturally by proton spins in hydrogen atoms subject to Nuclear Magnetic Resonance trials. No frequency change of clocks was observed to a resolution of 6310(exp -9). A new "Clock Principle" was postulated to explain the null result. There are two possible implications of the experiments: (a) The Clock Principle is invalid and, in fact, no metric theory incorporating electromagnetism is possible; (b) The Clock Principle is valid and it follows that a negative rest mass cannot exist.

  16. Electronic structure of molecules using relativistic effective core potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hay, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    In this review an approach is outlined for studying molecules containing heavy atoms with the use of relativistic effective core potentials (RECP's). These potentials play the dual roles of (1) replacing the chemically-inert core electrons and (2) incorporating the mass velocity and Darwin term into a one-electron effective potential. This reduces the problem to a valence-electron problem and avoids computation of additional matrix elements involving relativistic operators. The spin-orbit effects are subsequently included using the molecular orbitals derived from the RECP calculation as a basis

  17. Potential for shoreline changes due to sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Williams, S. Jeffress; Thieler, E. Robert

    2007-01-01

    Sea-level rise over the next century is expected to contribute significantly to physical changes along open-ocean shorelines. Predicting the form and magnitude of coastal changes is important for understanding the impacts to humans and the environment. Presently, the ability to predict coastal changes is limited by the scientific understanding of the many variables and processes involved in coastal change, and the lack of consensus regarding the validity of existing conceptual, analytical, or numerical models. In order to assess potential future coastal changes in the mid-Atlantic U.S. for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), a workshop was convened by the U.S. Geological Survey. Assessments of future coastal change were made by a committee of coastal scientists with extensive professional experience in the mid-Atlantic region. Thirteen scientists convened for a two-day meeting to exchange information and develop a consensus opinion on potential future coastal changes for the mid-Atlantic coast in response to sea-level rise. Using criteria defined in past work, the mid-Atlantic coast was divided into four geomorphic compartments: spits, headlands, wave-dominated barriers, and mixed-energy barriers. A range of potential coastal responses was identified for each compartment based on four sea-level rise scenarios. The four scenarios were based on the assumptions that: a) the long-term sea-level rise rate observed over the 20th century would persist over the 21st century, b) the 20th century rate would increase by 2 mm/yr, c) the 20th century rate would increase by 7 mm/yr, or d) sea-level would rise by 2 m over the next few hundred years. Potential responses to these sea-level rise scenarios depend on the landforms that occur within a region and include increased likelihood for erosion and shoreline retreat for all coastal types, increased likelihood for erosion, overwash and inlet breaching for barrier islands, as well as the possibility of a threshold

  18. Taming infrared divergences in the effective potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elias-Miro, J. [IFAE, Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain); Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Espinosa, J.R. [IFAE, Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain); ICREA, Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats, Barcelona (Spain); Konstandin, T. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany)

    2014-06-15

    The Higgs effective potential in the Standard Model (SM), calculated perturbatively, generically suffers from infrared (IR) divergences when the (field-dependent) tree-level mass of the Goldstone bosons goes to zero. Such divergences can affect both the potential and its first derivative and become worse with increasing loop order. In this paper we show that these IR divergences are spurious, we perform a simple resummation of all IR-problematic terms known (up to three loops) and explain how to extend the resummation to cure all such divergences to any order. The method is of general applicability and would work in scenarios other than the SM. Our discussion has some bearing on a scenario recently proposed as a mechanism for gauge mediation of scale breaking in the ultraviolet, in which it is claimed that the low-energy Higgs potential is non-standard. We argue that all non-decoupling effects from the heavy sector can be absorbed in the renormalization of low-energy parameters leading to a SM-like effective theory.

  19. Taming infrared divergences in the effective potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elias-Miro, J.; Konstandin, T.

    2014-06-01

    The Higgs effective potential in the Standard Model (SM), calculated perturbatively, generically suffers from infrared (IR) divergences when the (field-dependent) tree-level mass of the Goldstone bosons goes to zero. Such divergences can affect both the potential and its first derivative and become worse with increasing loop order. In this paper we show that these IR divergences are spurious, we perform a simple resummation of all IR-problematic terms known (up to three loops) and explain how to extend the resummation to cure all such divergences to any order. The method is of general applicability and would work in scenarios other than the SM. Our discussion has some bearing on a scenario recently proposed as a mechanism for gauge mediation of scale breaking in the ultraviolet, in which it is claimed that the low-energy Higgs potential is non-standard. We argue that all non-decoupling effects from the heavy sector can be absorbed in the renormalization of low-energy parameters leading to a SM-like effective theory.

  20. Potential effects of climate change on the water level, flora and macro-fauna of a large neotropical wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Úbeda, Bárbara; Di Giacomo, Adrian S; Neiff, Juan José; Loiselle, Steven A; Poi, Alicia S Guadalupe; Gálvez, José Ángel; Casco, Silvina; Cózar, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world's largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.

  1. Deltas on the move. Making deltas cope with the effects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reker, J.; Van Winden, A.; Braakhekke, W.; Vermaat, J.; Eleveld, M.; Janssen, R.; De Reus, N.; Omzigt, N.

    2006-01-01

    This scoping study is the first phase of a study aimed at: (a) providing knowledge on the potential of a system-based approach to deal with the effects of climate change as an alternative for the more traditional technical measures such as dams, dikes and surge barriers. This should be shown for both rich and poor countries and should address hydrological, ecological as well as socio-economic aspects; and (b) identifying the potential to market these results worldwide. To reach these objectives four research steps are defined: (1) to make an inventory of deltas: their vulnerability to the effects of climate change; (2) development of indicators for successful use of a system-based approach; (3) to provide an overview of the potential of soft measures for these deltas; (4) to select a number of deltas with potential for marketing system-based measures and the development of strategies to link economic and ecological objectives. This scoping study addresses step 1 only. The results from step 1 will be used as a starting point for steps 2 and 3. The outputs of this scoping study are threefold: a background report (this report); a flyer with a brief description of the findings; a website with information on delta's and how these may be affected by climate change. The scoping study will roughly outline which deltas are still functioning in a more or less natural manner - or could be (re)developed in that direction - and thus would be good candidates for a system-based approach. Chapter 2 gives a description of the geomorphological and ecological processes in a delta. In addition, those aspects of climate change that can have an effect on deltas are described. The third chapter deals with human interventions in deltas and whether or not they fit within a system-based approach. In a system-based approach, as presented in Chapter 4, natural processes are given free reign where possible. Chapter 5 shows how available data on deltas could be used in such a system

  2. A Global Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity to Changes in Precipitation, Potential Evaporation, and Other Factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berghuijs, W.R.; Larsen, Joshua R.; van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Woods, Ross A.

    2017-01-01

    Precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (Ep) are commonly studied drivers of changing freshwater availability, as aridity (Ep/P) explains ∼90% of the spatial differences in mean runoff across the globe. However, it is unclear if changes in aridity over time are also the

  3. Theoretical study on optical model potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim Hung Gi.

    1984-08-01

    The optical model potential of non-local effect on the rounded edge of the potential is derived. On the basis of this potential the functional form of the optical model potential, the energy dependence and relationship of its parameters, and the dependency of the values of the parameters on energy change are shown in this paper. (author)

  4. From Attitude Change to Behaviour Change: Institutional Mediators of Education for Sustainable Development Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismael Velasco

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we explore the way in which institutional contexts mediate values-focused behaviour change, with potential design implications. We use concepts taken from training research, where “learning transfer” refers to the translation into practice of the learning acquired during training: it is considered necessary to generalize it for the job context and for it to be maintained over a period of time on the job. In this paper, we analyse the example of one education for sustainable development (ESD intervention that is already established as pedagogically effective when it is deployed in diverse institutional environments worldwide—the Youth as Agents of Behaviour Change program of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC. This allows an opportunity to consider variations in learning transfer due to distinctive moderating institutional features, which can now be understood in terms of varying transfer climates, levels of leadership support and opportunities to practice. Additional barriers of tokenistic consultation, lack of role clarity and perverse effects of increased distance between trainees and their colleagues on return were also seen. ESD programs intending to bridge the values-action gap could benefit from not focusing only on the training content, but pre-planning organisational support for returning trainees and including in the training ways for them to assess and plan to overcome such difficulties.

  5. Directly patching high-level exchange-correlation potential based on fully determined optimized effective potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen; Chi, Yu-Chieh

    2017-12-01

    The key element in Kohn-Sham (KS) density functional theory is the exchange-correlation (XC) potential. We recently proposed the exchange-correlation potential patching (XCPP) method with the aim of directly constructing high-level XC potential in a large system by patching the locally computed, high-level XC potentials throughout the system. In this work, we investigate the patching of the exact exchange (EXX) and the random phase approximation (RPA) correlation potentials. A major challenge of XCPP is that a cluster's XC potential, obtained by solving the optimized effective potential equation, is only determined up to an unknown constant. Without fully determining the clusters' XC potentials, the patched system's XC potential is "uneven" in the real space and may cause non-physical results. Here, we developed a simple method to determine this unknown constant. The performance of XCPP-RPA is investigated on three one-dimensional systems: H20, H10Li8, and the stretching of the H19-H bond. We investigated two definitions of EXX: (i) the definition based on the adiabatic connection and fluctuation dissipation theorem (ACFDT) and (ii) the Hartree-Fock (HF) definition. With ACFDT-type EXX, effective error cancellations were observed between the patched EXX and the patched RPA correlation potentials. Such error cancellations were absent for the HF-type EXX, which was attributed to the fact that for systems with fractional occupation numbers, the integral of the HF-type EXX hole is not -1. The KS spectra and band gaps from XCPP agree reasonably well with the benchmarks as we make the clusters large.

  6. Effective potential and chiral symmetry breaking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hochberg, David

    2010-01-01

    The nonequilibrium effective potential is calculated for the Frank model of spontaneous mirror-symmetry breaking in chemistry in which external noise is introduced to account for random environmental effects. The well-mixed limit, corresponding to negligible diffusion, and the case of diffusion in two space dimensions are studied in detail. White noise has a disordering effect in the former case, whereas in the latter case a phase transition occurs for external noise exceeding a critical intensity which racemizes the system.

  7. Design Change Model for Effective Scheduling Change Propagation Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hai-Zhu; Ding, Guo-Fu; Li, Rong; Qin, Sheng-Feng; Yan, Kai-Yin

    2017-09-01

    Changes in requirements may result in the increasing of product development project cost and lead time, therefore, it is important to understand how requirement changes propagate in the design of complex product systems and be able to select best options to guide design. Currently, a most approach for design change is lack of take the multi-disciplinary coupling relationships and the number of parameters into account integrally. A new design change model is presented to systematically analyze and search change propagation paths. Firstly, a PDS-Behavior-Structure-based design change model is established to describe requirement changes causing the design change propagation in behavior and structure domains. Secondly, a multi-disciplinary oriented behavior matrix is utilized to support change propagation analysis of complex product systems, and the interaction relationships of the matrix elements are used to obtain an initial set of change paths. Finally, a rough set-based propagation space reducing tool is developed to assist in narrowing change propagation paths by computing the importance of the design change parameters. The proposed new design change model and its associated tools have been demonstrated by the scheduling change propagation paths of high speed train's bogie to show its feasibility and effectiveness. This model is not only supportive to response quickly to diversified market requirements, but also helpful to satisfy customer requirements and reduce product development lead time. The proposed new design change model can be applied in a wide range of engineering systems design with improved efficiency.

  8. Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

    2017-09-01

    This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyung Ah Koo

    Full Text Available Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1 identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2 predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77. Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and

  10. Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Hopkinson, Charles S; Lee, Joon Ho

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine

  11. An effective potential for heavy quark antiquark bound system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barik, B.K.; Deo, B.B.

    1985-01-01

    A heavy quark antiquark potential is suggested connecting asymptotic freedom and quark confinement in a unified way. The α g (q 2 ) calculated using Borel summation technique with three loop agrees with the two loop β-function up to g 2 /4π ∼ 1.1 but changes appreciably after g 2 /4π = 1.5. The potential so derived satisfactorily explains the c overlined c and b overlined b spectrum. (author)

  12. Effects of temperature changes on maize production in Mozambique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, L.; Michaelsen, J.; Funk, Chris; Husak, G.

    2011-01-01

    We examined intraseasonal changes in maize phenology and heat stress exposure over the 1979-2008 period, using Mozambique meteorological station data and maize growth requirements in a growing degree-day model. Identifying historical effects of warming on maize growth is particularly important in Mozambique because national food security is highly dependent on domestic food production, most of which is grown in already warm to hot environments. Warming temperatures speed plant development, shortening the length of growth periods necessary for optimum plant and grain size. This faster phenological development also alters the timing of maximum plant water demand. In hot growing environments, temperature increases during maize pollination threaten to make midseason crop failure the norm. In addition to creating a harsher thermal environment, we find that early season temperature increases have caused the maize reproductive period to start earlier, increasing the risk of heat and water stress. Declines in time to maize maturation suggest that, independent of effects to water availability, yield potential is becoming increasingly limited by warming itself. Regional variations in effects are a function of the timing and magnitude of temperature increases and growing season characteristics. Continuation of current climatic trends could induce substantial yield losses in some locations. Farmers could avoid some losses through simple changes to planting dates and maize varietal types.

  13. Identifying Pre-Service Teachers’ Beliefs About Teaching EFL and Their Potential Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Andrés Suárez Flórez

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying pre-service teachers’ beliefs about teaching English as a foreign language and tracking their potential changes throughout the teaching practicum. Participants were two pre-service teachers in their fifth year of their Bachelor of Arts in Foreign Languages program in a public university in Colombia. Data were gathered through a modified version of Beliefs about Language Learning Inventory before the practicum, eight weekly journal entries administered during ten weeks, and two semi-structured interviews at the end of the teaching practicum. The findings revealed that most of the pre-service teachers’ beliefs changed once they faced the reality of the classroom.

  14. Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. PELTONEN-SAINIO

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change offers new opportunities for Finnish field crop production, which is currently limited by the short growing season. A warmer climate will extend the thermal growing season and the physiologically effective part of it. Winters will also become milder, enabling introduction of winter-sown crops to a greater extent than is possible today. With this study we aim to characterise the likely regional differences in capacity to grow different seed producing crops. Prolongation of the Finnish growing season was estimated using a 0.5º latitude × 0.5º longitude gridded dataset from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The dataset comprised an average estimate from 19 global climate models of the response of Finnish climate to low (B1 and high (A2 scenarios of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions for 30-year periods centred on 2025, 2055 and 2085 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Growing season temperature sums that suit crop growth and are agronomically feasible in Finland are anticipated to increase by some 140 °Cd by 2025, 300 °Cd by 2055 and 470 °Cd by 2085 in scenario A2, when averaged over regions, and earlier sowing is expected to take place, but not later harvests. Accordingly, the extent of cultivable areas for the commonly grown major and minor crops will increase considerably. Due to the higher base temperature requirement for maize (Zea mays L. growth than for temperate crops, we estimate that silage maize could become a Finnish field crop for the most favourable growing regions only at the end of this century. Winters are getting milder, but it will take almost the whole century until winters such as those that are typical for southern Sweden and Denmark are experienced on a wide scale in Finland. It is possible that introduction of winter-sown crops (cereals and rapeseed will represent major risks due to fluctuating winter conditions, and this could delay their adaptation for many decades. Such risks need to be

  15. Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodo, Mahamat K

    2014-01-01

    Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

  16. Modeling the potential impacts of global climate change in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the hottest issues in the recent environmental research worldwide has become the harmful effects of climate change on the ecosystems and environment due to global warming. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries not only in the South East Asia but also in the world. It is predicted that a large portion of ...

  17. Vulnerability of United States Bridges to Potential Increases in Flooding from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study assesses the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) are used to capture ...

  18. Climate change and wildlife in the southern United States: potential effects and management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cathryn H. Greenberg; Roger W. Perry; Kathleen E. Franzreb; Susan C. Loeb; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph; Eric Winters; E.M. Fucik; M.A. Kwiatkowski; B.R. Parresol; J.D. Austin; G.W. Tanner

    2014-01-01

    In the southeastern United States, climate models project a temperature increase of 2-10°C by 2100 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007). Climate change is already evident. Since the 1970s, average temperature has risen by about 1°C, with the greatest seasonal temperature increase during winter. Average precipitation during autumn has increased by 30% since...

  19. Role of potential fluctuations in phase-change GST memory devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agarwal, Satish C. [Department of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur 208016 (India)

    2012-10-15

    The long range potential fluctuations (LRPFs) arising from the defects and heterogeneities in disordered semiconductors are important for understanding their atomic and electronic properties. Here, they are measured in Ge{sub X}Sb{sub Y}Te{sub 1-X-Y} (GST) chalcogenide glasses used in rewritable phase change memory (PCM) devices. It is found that the most commonly used composition Ge{sub 2}Sb{sub 2}Te{sub 5} has the smallest LRPF amongst its nearby compositions. This finding may be useful in the search for better PCM materials. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  20. Social Change and its Potential Impacts on Chinese Population Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang, Hong

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the past 25 years, China has experienced transformation of its economic system from a highly centralized planned economy toward a market oriented economic system. This process has led to massive and rapid changes in all aspects of society with profound effects on the population’s health in the large parts of the country. Along with the material prosperity, the living conditions of Chinese people, such as food, shelter, and sanitation status, have been improving steadily. People have more capability to purchase health related merchandise as well as health services. Overall the health status of most Chinese has improved but there are significant exceptions to this overall conclusion. These exceptions arise from increasing inequity of income, increases in unemployment rates, the decline of health insurance coverage, changes in demography, changes in social value, culture, health related behaviors, and the changes of health care systems.

  1. Change in corrosion potential of SUS304 in natural river water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Masahiro; Satoh, Tomonori; Tsukada, Takashi; Katayama, Hideki

    2014-01-01

    In the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, seawater and natural river water were poured into the spent nuclear fuel pools (SFP) for emergency cooling. At the early stage of the accident, corrosion of SFP's materials was worried because of high chloride ion concentration from seawater. The chloride ion concentration of the present time was decreased by dechlorination operation of feeding water of SFPs. However, the water was not treated in the viewpoint of microbial breeding and SFPs were in contact with open atmosphere, so that many microbes could be alive in the cooling water. Some researchers have reported microbially induced corrosion (MIC) occurred in the natural seawater or river water. So, we attempted to examine the ability of MIC occurrence by using of corrosion potential analysis. Corrosion potential measurements were performed in test solutions using SUS304 simple plate, creviced and welded samples. Natural river water in Ibaraki prefecture was used as standard test solution, and some amounts of NaCl and nutrient broth (NB) were added to the other solutions. Temperatures of these solutions were kept in 303 K. Growth of microbes in the test solution was confirmed using test kit. Corrosion potentials of all samples rose to about 300 mV nobler than the initial values in the NB added solution. The potentials of the welded samples more easily rose than the simple plate. These potential changes are attributed to the biofilms formed on the sample surface. (author)

  2. Exploring the potential impacts of tourism development on social and ecological change in the Solomon Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrich, Amy; Aswani, Shankar

    2016-11-01

    Pacific Island communities may be vulnerable to negative impacts of economic development, which is often considered a strategy for reducing vulnerability to environmental change. Studies that evaluate potential impacts of economic development in isolated communities may be inaccurate to only focus on asking people to anticipate impacts of phenomena they have had minimal exposure to. We used an open-ended approach to evaluate how communities in the Solomon Islands perceived change, and used this information to anticipate potential impacts of the government's plans to develop tourism. Our results showed mostly negative expectations of change, particularly socio-cultural, which was perceived as being driven by diminishing social capital, foreign influence, and economic development. Despite minimal exposure, locals supported tourism and had more positive expectations of change associated with this activity. Our findings emphasize the need for locally appropriate planning to ensure intended positive impacts of tourism and other forms of economic development.

  3. Long term effects on potential repository sites: climatic and geomorphological changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seddon, M.B.; Worsley, P.

    1985-05-01

    A study of the effects of climatic variability on the geomorphological processes operating on the landscape are important in the study of radioactive waste repository sites. The effects of glacial erosion and deposition are fundamental to an examination of repository safety, particularly in North Britain. Rates of climatic shift need to be examined. Predictive simulation models, based on a knowledge of past climatic events, for future global climates are proposed. (UK)

  4. Potential effects of climate change on the water level, flora and macro-fauna of a large neotropical wetland.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bárbara Úbeda

    Full Text Available Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world's largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds. On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.

  5. Bio-protective potential of lactic acid bacteria: Effect of and on changes of the microbial community in vacuum-packaged chilled beef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimin Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study was to determine the bacterial diversity and monitor the community dynamic changes during storage of vacuum-packaged sliced raw beef as affected by Lactobacillus sakei and Lactobacillus curvatus. Methods L. sakei and L. curvatus were separately incubated in vacuumed-packaged raw beef as bio-protective cultures to inhibit the naturally contaminating microbial load. Dynamic changes of the microbial diversity of inoculated or non-inoculated (control samples were monitored at 4°C for 0 to 38 days, using polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE. Results The DGGE profiles of DNA directly extracted from non-inoculated control samples highlighted the order of appearance of spoilage bacteria during storage, showing that Enterbacteriaceae and Pseudomonas fragi emerged early, then Brochothrix thermosphacta shared the dominant position, and finally, Pseudomonas putida showed up became predominant. Compared with control, the inoculation of either L. sakei or L. curvatus significantly lowered the complexity of microbial diversity and inhibited the growth of spoilage bacteria (p<0.05. Interestingly, we also found that the dominant position of L. curvatus was replaced by indigenous L. sakei after 13 d for L. curvatus-inoculated samples. Plate counts on selective agars further showed that inoculation with L. sakei or L. curvatus obviously reduced the viable counts of Enterbacteraceae, Pseudomonas spp. and B. thermosphacta during later storage (p< 0.05, with L. sakei exerting greater inhibitory effect. Inoculation with both bio-protective cultures also significantly decreased the total volatile basic nitrogen values of stored samples (p<0.05. Conclusion Taken together, the results proved the benefits of inoculation with lactic acid bacteria especially L. sakei as a potential way to inhibit growth of spoilage-related bacteria and improve the shelf life of vacuum-packaged raw beef.

  6. Effective potential for bilocal composite fields and its ambiguity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muta, T.

    1988-01-01

    It is discussed that an ambiguity exists in the definition of the effective potential for bilocal composite fields which is an indispensable tool to discuss dynamical symmetry breaking. The ambiguity gives warning to arguments on the stability of ground states based on the curvature of the effective potential

  7. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Long-term potentiation protects rat hippocampal slices from the effects of acute hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, F F; Addae, J I; McRae, A; Stone, T W

    2001-07-13

    We have previously shown that long-term potentiation (LTP) decreases the sensitivity of glutamate receptors in the rat hippocampal CA1 region to exogenously applied glutamate agonists. Since the pathophysiology of hypoxia/ischemia involves increased concentration of endogenous glutamate, we tested the hypothesis that LTP could reduce the effects of hypoxia in the hippocampal slice. The effects of LTP on hypoxia were measured by the changes in population spike potentials (PS) or field excitatory post-synaptic potentials (fepsps). Hypoxia was induced by perfusing the slice with (i) artificial CSF which had been pre-gassed with 95%N2/5% CO2; (ii) artificial CSF which had not been pre-gassed with 95% O2/5% CO2; or (iii) an oxygen-glucose deprived (OGD) medium which was similar to (ii) and in which the glucose had been replaced with sucrose. Exposure of a slice to a hypoxic medium for 1.5-3.0 min led to a decrease in the PS or fepsps; the potentials recovered to control levels within 3-5 min. Repeat exposure, 45 min later, of the same slice to the same hypoxic medium for the same duration as the first exposure caused a reduction in the potentials again; there were no significant differences between the degree of reduction caused by the first or second exposure for all three types of hypoxic media (P>0.05; paired t-test). In some of the slices, two episodes of LTP were induced 25 and 35 min after the first hypoxic exposure; this caused inhibition of reduction in potentials caused by the second hypoxic insult which was given at 45 min after the first; the differences in reduction in potentials were highly significant for all the hypoxic media used (Peffects of LTP were not prevented by cyclothiazide or inhibitors of NO synthetase compounds that have been shown to be effective in blocking the effects of LTP on the actions of exogenously applied AMPA and NMDA, respectively. The neuroprotective effects of LTP were similar to those of propentofylline, a known neuroprotective

  9. Assessment of the feasibility of studying the potential health effects of the West Valley Solidification Project. Phase II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matanoski, G.M.

    The activities at West Valley involve potential exposure to ionizing radiation. The health effects from radiation are well known and the projected levels of exposure in this situation are so low as to pose no known health hazard in the community. In such a situation it is not reasonable to propose an expensive, comprehensive and physically invasive screening program for the public unless one could justify the benefits. This report describes a feasible population-based surveillance or disease monitoring system which could be implemented in the West Valley area in order to assess the relevance of any changes in incidence of disease which might be attributable to radiation. The proposed plan is both practical and inexpensive. It would anticipate any potential changes in the health status of the population and provide a means to objectively interpret such changes before major concerns develop

  10. Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2009-01-01

    We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

  11. Trace gases and other potential perturbations to global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, W.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Washington, W.M.; Isaacs, R.G.; Molnar, G.

    1986-01-01

    We review the various natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. The purpose is to summarize our understanding of these factors and their potential future climatic effects so that CO 2 -induced climate change can be viewed in a proper context. The factors we discuss include trace gases, anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, variation of solar constant, change of surface characteristics, and releases of waste heat. We discuss the origins of the various natural and anthropogenic perturbations, the physical and chemical processes and their interactions, model sensitivity calculations, and model projections of their potential future climatic effects. The discussions center on trace gases because of their potentially large climatic effects. It appears that the increases of atmospheric trace gases of other kinds in addition to CO 2 could have important climatic effects. The model calculations suggest that the combined effect of these other trace gases, and the associated change of atmospheric ozone and water vapor distributions, could potentially warm the climate by an amount comparable in magnitude to the effect of doubling the CO 2 . Aerosols of anthropogenic origins may have substantial effects on regional climate, while the volcanic aerosols may have an effect on large-scale climate for up to a few years after injection. Changes of surface characteristics and releases of waste heat may also have substantial effects on the regional climate, but these effects are most likely to be small when compared with the effect of CO 2 increase. Changes of solar constant could have an effect on the global scale, but the time scale is much longer. There is much more that needs to be learned with regard to the above mentioned natural and anthropogenic factors that may affect the climate. A brief summary of those needs is presented

  12. The Climate Potentials and Side-Effects of Large-Scale terrestrial CO2 Removal - Insights from Quantitative Model Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boysen, L.; Heck, V.; Lucht, W.; Gerten, D.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through dedicated biomass plantations is considered as one climate engineering (CE) option if implemented at large-scale. While the risks and costs are supposed to be small, the effectiveness depends strongly on spatial and temporal scales of implementation. Based on simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) we comprehensively assess the effectiveness, biogeochemical side-effects and tradeoffs from an earth system-analytic perspective. We analyzed systematic land-use scenarios in which all, 25%, or 10% of natural and/or agricultural areas are converted to tCDR plantations including the assumption that biomass plantations are established once the 2°C target is crossed in a business-as-usual climate change trajectory. The resulting tCDR potentials in year 2100 include the net accumulated annual biomass harvests and changes in all land carbon pools. We find that only the most spatially excessive, and thus undesirable, scenario would be capable to restore the 2° target by 2100 under continuing high emissions (with a cooling of 3.02°C). Large-scale biomass plantations covering areas between 1.1 - 4.2 Gha would produce a climate reduction potential of 0.8 - 1.4°C. tCDR plantations at smaller scales do not build up enough biomass over this considered period and the potentials to achieve global warming reductions are substantially lowered to no more than 0.5-0.6°C. Finally, we demonstrate that the (non-economic) costs for the Earth system include negative impacts on the water cycle and on ecosystems, which are already under pressure due to both land use change and climate change. Overall, tCDR may lead to a further transgression of land- and water-related planetary boundaries while not being able to set back the crossing of the planetary boundary for climate change. tCDR could still be considered in the near-future mitigation portfolio if implemented on small scales on wisely chosen areas.

  13. Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

    2018-06-01

    The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2016-01-01

    Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic

  15. Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies

    OpenAIRE

    Nigel Key; Stacy Sneeringer

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress-including modifications to animal management or housing-tend to increase production costs. We use operation-level economic data coupled with finely-scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects the technical efficiency of dairies ac...

  16. Ontogenic changes in cochlear characteristic frequency at a basal turn location as reflected in the summating potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yancey, C; Dallos, P

    1985-05-01

    In these experiments the development of summating potential (SP) responses in gerbils from neonates to adults was followed. Special recording techniques were used to eliminate maturational effects associated with the middle ear so that developmental changes in cochlear physiology were isolated for study. Results indicate that as development proceeds the frequency that maximally excites the basilar membrane (BM) of the gerbil at a specific mid-basal turn electrode location progresses from low to high, demonstrating a 1.5 octave shift from the onset of the generation of electrical activity until adult-like response are obtained. These findings support the theory proposed by E.W. Rubel (in: Handbook of Sensory Physiology, Vol. IX: Development of Sensory Systems, pp. 135-237. Editor: M. Jacobsen. Springer-Verlag, New York) which explains the observed development of physiological responses measured in the cochlea and higher centers in terms of changing micromechanical transduction properties of the BM.

  17. Effects of water chemistry and potential distribution on electrochemical corrosion potential measurements in 553 K pure water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Kazushige; Wada, Yoichi; Tachibana, Masahiko; Ota, Nobuyuki; Aizawa, Motohiro

    2013-01-01

    The effects of water chemistry distribution on the potential of a reference electrode and of the potential distribution on the measured potential should be known qualitatively to obtain accurate electrochemical corrosion potential (ECP) data in BWRs. First, the effects of oxygen on a platinum reference electrode were studied in 553 K pure water containing dissolved hydrogen (DH) concentration of 26 - 10 5 μg kg -1 (ppb). The platinum electrode worked in the same way as the theoretical hydrogen electrode under the condition that the molar ratio of DH to dissolved oxygen (DO) was more than 10 and that DO was less than 100 ppb. Second, the effects of potential distribution on the measured potential were studied by using the ECP measurement part without platinum deposition on the surfaces connected to another ECP measurement part with platinum deposition on the surfaces in 553 K pure water containing 100 - 130 ppb of DH or 100 - 130 ppb of DH plus 400 ppb of hydrogen peroxide. Measured potentials for each ECP measurement part were in good agreement with literature data for each surface condition. The lead wire connecting point did not affect the measured potential. Potential should be measured at the nearest point from the reference electrode in which case it will be not affected by either the potential distribution or the connection point of the lead wire in pure water. (author)

  18. Effect of environmental change on yield and quality of fruits and vegetables: two systematic reviews and projections of possible health effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P.; Scheelbeek, P.; Bird, F.; Green, R.; Dangour, A.

    2017-12-01

    Background - Environmental changes—including climatic change, water scarcity, and biodiversity loss—threaten agricultural production and pose challenges to global food security. In this study, we review the evidence of the effects of environmental change on the yield and quality of fruits and vegetables - a food group that plays a highly important role in our diets - and assess possible implications for nutrition and health outcomes. Methods - We undertook two systematic reviews of the published literature on the effect of 8 different environmental stressors on yields and nutritional quality of (1) fruits and (2) vegetables, measured in greenhouse and field studies. We combined the review outcomes with Food Balance Sheet data to assess the potential consequences of changed availability and quality of fruits and vegetables for global nutrient deficiencies and related chronic diseases. Findings - Overall, fruits were affected more prominently by changing environmental patterns than vegetables. In tropical countries, there were largely adverse effects on yield of increased temperature and changing precipitation patterns, although in more temperate zones some beneficial effects were reported. In contrast, the effects on nutritional quality were mostly positive, especially in fruit crops, with higher vitamin and mineral content measured in most crops. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations had a predominantly positive effect on yield, especially in legumes, but a negative effect on nutritional quality of both fruits and vegetables. Adverse nutritional implications were estimated to be largest in areas characterised by high vulnerability to environmental change, high dependency on local markets, and high rates of food insecurity. Interpretation - Our study identified effects of environmental change on yields and quality of fruits and vegetables that might pose threats to population health, especially in areas vulnerable to climate-change and food insecurity. To

  19. Effects of Climate Change on Fishery Species in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenker, Jonathan M.

    2009-07-01

    Recreational and commercial fishery species in Florida and elsewhere are under serious stress from overfishing and many types of habitat and water quality degradation. Climate change may add to that stress by affecting an array of biological processes, although the range of some subtropical and tropical species may expand northward in the state. It is expected to trigger sea level rise and changes in hurricanes and precipitation levels in Florida and elsewhere. Perhaps the most significant impacts of climate change on fishery species will also associated with changes in seagrasses and mangroves that function as Essential Nursery Habitats. Seagrasses in estuarine and coastal areas are limited by water depth and light penetration. Increases in sea level and in precipitation-induced turbidity may restrict the extent of seagrass habitats and their role in fishery production. Expanded efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment loading into seagrass habitats may help minimize the potential loss of a valuable fish nursery habitat. Mangroves have also been affected by human activities, and are the subject of restoration efforts in many areas. Potential sea level rise may cause an expansion of mangrove habitats in the Everglades, at the expense of freshwater habitats. This potential tradeoff of habitats should be considered by the water flow and habitat restoration programs in the Everglades.

  20. Effects of climate changes in Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sygna, Linda; O'Brien, Karen

    2001-02-01

    This report presents the conclusions of a seminar on ''Effects of climate changes'' held in Norway in Oct. 2000. Too little is known about how climatic changes affect nature and society. This type of research is not well supported economically and there has been a lack of coordinated and long-term funds. This may change, however, as the development of strategies to meet climatic changes in the future requires a unified understanding of their impacts

  1. Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

  2. Effects of penicillin on procaine-elicited bursts of potential in central neuron of snail, Achatina fulica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi-Hung; Lu, Kuan-Ling; Hsiao, Ru-Wan; Lee, Ya-Ling; Tsai, Hong-Chieh; Lin, Chia Hsien; Tsai, Ming-Cheng

    2008-08-01

    Effects of penicillin on changes in procaine-elicited bursts of potential (BoP) were studied in a central neuron (RP4) of snail, Achatina fulica Ferussac. Procaine elicited BoP in the RP4 neuron while penicillin elicited depolarization of the neuron. Penicillin decreased the BoP elicited by procaine in a concentration-dependent manner. The effect of penicillin on the procaine-elicited BoP was not altered in the preparations treated with ascorbate or L-NAME (N-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester). However, the inhibitory effect of penicillin on the procaine-elicited BoP was enhanced with a decrease in extracellular sodium ion. Sodium ion was one of the important ions contributing to the action potential of the neuron. Two-electrode voltage-clamp studies revealed that penicillin decreased the fast sodium inward current of the neuron. It is concluded that penicillin inhibited the BoP elicited by procaine and sodium ion altered the effect of penicillin on procaine-elicited BoP.

  3. Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogola, J.S.; Abira, M.A.; Awuor, V.O.

    1997-01-01

    According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the global atmosphere. It is a phenomenon that is still inadequately understood by the general public. Planners, policy makers and even within institutions of learning, but one which is bound to affect our environment and development activities. There is therefore need for information dissemination, systematic research, policy formulation, and development of strategies for managing climate change. The book is divided into five parts, Part I presents basic information on climate change; Part II looks at climatic change and natural resources; Part III discusses implications of climate change; Part IV presents ethical issues related to climatic change; and Part V deals with responses to climate change

  4. Evaluating the effectiveness of behavior change techniques in health-related behavior: a scoping review of methods used.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michie, Susan; West, Robert; Sheals, Kate; Godinho, Cristina A

    2018-03-01

    Behavior change interventions typically contain multiple potentially active components: behavior change techniques (BCTs). Identifying which specific BCTs or BCT combinations have the potential to be effective for a given behavior in a given context presents a major challenge. The aim of this study was to review the methods that have been used to identify effective BCTs for given behaviors in given contexts and evaluate their strengths and limitations. A scoping review was conducted of studies that had sought to identify effective BCTs. Articles referring to "behavio(u)r change technique(s)" in the abstract/text were located, and ones that involved identification of effective BCTs were selected. The methods reported were coded. The methods were analyzed in general terms using "PASS" criteria: Practicability (facility to apply the method appropriately), Applicability (facility to generalize from findings to contexts and populations of interest), Sensitivity (facility to identify effective BCTs), and Specificity (facility to rule out ineffective BCTs). A sample of 10% of the studies reviewed was then evaluated using these criteria to assess how far the strengths and limitations identified in principle were borne out in practice. One hundred and thirty-five studies were identified. The methods used in those studies were experimental manipulation of BCTs, observational studies comparing outcomes in the presence or absence of BCTs, meta-analyses of BCT comparisons, meta-regressions evaluating effect sizes with and without specific BCTs, reviews of BCTs found in effective interventions, and meta-classification and regression trees. The limitations of each method meant that only weak conclusions could be drawn regarding the effectiveness of specific BCTs or BCT combinations. Methods for identifying effective BCTs linked to target behavior and context all have important inherent limitations. A strategy needs to be developed that can systematically combine the strengths of

  5. The Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS): mobile apps and collaboration for optimizing climate change investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massive investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation are projected during coming decades. Many of these investments will seek to modify how land is managed. The return on both types of investments can be increased through an understanding of land potential: the potential of the land to s...

  6. The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geard, Nicholas; Glass, Kathryn; McCaw, James M; McBryde, Emma S; Korb, Kevin B; Keeling, Matt J; McVernon, Jodie

    2015-12-01

    The demographic structure of populations in both more developed and less developed countries is changing: increases in life expectancy and declining fertility have led to older populations and smaller households. The implications of these demographic changes for the spread and control of infectious diseases are not fully understood. Here we use an individual based model with realistic and dynamic age and household structure to demonstrate the marked effect that demographic change has on disease transmission at the population and household level. The decline in fertility is associated with a decrease in disease incidence and an increase in the age of first infection, even in the absence of vaccination or other control measures. Although large households become rarer as fertility decreases, we show that there is a proportionate increase in incidence of disease in these households as the accumulation of susceptible clusters increases the potential for explosive outbreaks. By modelling vaccination, we provide a direct comparison of the relative importance of demographic change and vaccination on incidence of disease. We highlight the increased risks associated with unvaccinated households in a low fertility setting if vaccine behaviour is correlated with household membership. We suggest that models that do not account for future demographic change, and especially its effect on household structure, may potentially overestimate the impact of vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Effective interionic pair potentials in liquid alkali metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumaravadivel, R.

    1984-06-01

    Information on the effective pair potential of liquid alkali metals is obtained from liquid structure factor data by the combination of two approximate methods in the theory of liquids. One method stems from treating the indirect ion-ion interaction in the optimised random phase approximation (ORPA) and the other uses the modified hypernetted chain (MHNC) equation. It is shown that, in the region of the main attractive well, the effective pair potential is bracketed by the results obtained from these two methods. The MHNC inversion scheme does not fare well in providing information on the potential in the region of interionic distance in the tail of the interionic potential. A cross-over from the hard-sphere bridge function to the mean spherical approximation (MSA) bridge function for the long range behaviour of the bridge term in the MHNC equation does not provide appreciable improvement. (author)

  8. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter B Adler

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence.We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation x competition interactions.We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

  9. Potential maternal effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on development and disease severity in a Mediterranean legume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José M. Grünzweig

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Global change can greatly affect plant populations both directly by influencing growing conditions and indirectly by maternal effects on development of offspring. More information is needed on transgenerational effects of global change on plants and on their interactions with pathogens. The current study assessed potential maternal effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on performance and disease susceptibility of first-generation offspring of the Mediterranean legume Onobrychis crista-galli. Mother plants were grown at three CO2 concentrations, and the study focused on their offspring that were raised under common ambient climate and CO2. In addition, progeny were exposed to natural infection by the fungal pathogen powdery mildew. In one out of three years, offspring of high-CO2 treatments (440 and 600 ppm had lower shoot biomass and reproductive output than offspring of low-CO2 treatment (280 ppm. Disease severity in a heavy-infection year was higher in high-CO2 than in low-CO2 offspring. However, some of the findings on maternal effects changed when the population was divided into two functionally diverging plant types distinguishable by flower color (pink, Type P; white Type W. Disease severity in a heavy-infection year was higher in high-CO2 than in low-CO2 progeny in the more disease-resistant (Type P, but not in the more susceptible plant type (Type W. In a low-infection year, maternal CO2 treatments did not differ in disease severity. Mother plants of Type P exposed to low CO2 produced larger seeds than all other combinations of CO2 and plant type, which might contribute to higher offspring performance. This study showed that elevated CO2 potentially exerts environmental maternal effects on performance of progeny and, notably, also on their susceptibility to natural infection by a pathogen. Maternal effects of global change might differently affect functionally divergent plant types, which could impact population fitness and alter plant

  10. Effect of cold atmospheric pressure He-plasma jet on DNA change and mutation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaopromsiri, C.; Yu, L. D.; Sarapirom, S.; Thopan, P.; Boonyawan, D.

    2015-12-01

    Cold atmospheric pressure plasma jet (CAPPJ) effect on DNA change was studied for assessment of its safety. The experiment utilized a home-developed CAPPJ using 100% helium to directly treat naked DNA plasmid pGFP (plasmid green fluorescent protein). A traversal electric field was applied to separate the plasma components and both dry and wet sample conditions were adopted to investigate various factor roles in changing DNA. Plasma species were measured by using optical emission spectroscopy. DNA topological form change was analyzed by gel electrophoresis. The plasma jet treated DNA was transferred into bacterial Escherichia coli cells for observing mutation. The results show that the He-CAPPJ could break DNA strands due to actions from charge, radicals and neutrals and potentially cause genetic modification of living cells.

  11. Effect of cold atmospheric pressure He-plasma jet on DNA change and mutation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yaopromsiri, C. [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand); Yu, L.D., E-mail: yuld@thep-center.org [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand); Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, Commission on Higher Education, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400 (Thailand); Sarapirom, S. [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand); Faculty of Science, Maejo University, Bang Khen, Chiang Mai 50290 (Thailand); Thopan, P.; Boonyawan, D. [Plasma and Beam Physics Research Facility, Department of Physics and Materials Science, Faculty of Science, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50200 (Thailand)

    2015-12-15

    Cold atmospheric pressure plasma jet (CAPPJ) effect on DNA change was studied for assessment of its safety. The experiment utilized a home-developed CAPPJ using 100% helium to directly treat naked DNA plasmid pGFP (plasmid green fluorescent protein). A traversal electric field was applied to separate the plasma components and both dry and wet sample conditions were adopted to investigate various factor roles in changing DNA. Plasma species were measured by using optical emission spectroscopy. DNA topological form change was analyzed by gel electrophoresis. The plasma jet treated DNA was transferred into bacterial Escherichia coli cells for observing mutation. The results show that the He-CAPPJ could break DNA strands due to actions from charge, radicals and neutrals and potentially cause genetic modification of living cells.

  12. The Effect of Land Use (Deforestation) on Global Changing and its consequences in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onursal Denli, G.; Denli, H. H.

    2015-12-01

    Land use has generally been considered as a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Global changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, water and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Especially the forests influence climate through physical, chemical and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality. Global Warming and Climate Change are the two main fundamental problems facing Turkey as well as the World. The expedition and size of this change is becoming noticeably conspicuous now. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the global temperature has been increased of about 0.74 degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change. The general scientific opinions on the climate change states that in the past 50 years, global warming has effected the human life resulting with very obvious influences. High rates of deforestation within a country are most commonly linked to population growth and poverty. In Turkey, the forests are destroyed for various reasons resulting to a change in the climate. This study examines the causes of

  13. Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D.

    2012-12-01

    should: 1) provide meaningful, authoritative climate-relevant measures about the status, rates, and trends of key physical, ecological, and societal variables and values to inform decisions on management, research, and education at regional to national scales; 2) identify climate-related conditions and impacts to help develop effective mitigation and adaptation measures and reduce costs of management; and 3) document and communicate the climate-driven dynamic nature and condition of Earth's systems and societies, and provide a coordinated. This presentation will provide an overview of possible climate impacts on the built environment. Also, given that spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques will be of paramount importance in assessing these impacts and in preparing adaptation strategies, the presentation will provide examples of how these techniques can be used to identify potential impacts of climate change on the built environment.

  14. Identifying determinants of effective complementary feeding behaviour change interventions in developing countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrizio, Cecilia S; van Liere, Marti; Pelto, Gretel

    2014-01-01

    As stunting moves to the forefront of the global agenda, there is substantial evidence that behaviour change interventions (BCI) can improve infant feeding practices and growth. However, this evidence has not been translated into improved outcomes on a national level because we do not know enough about what makes these interventions work, for whom, when, why, at what cost and for how long. Our objective was to examine the design and implementation of complementary feeding BCI, from the peer-reviewed literature, to identify generalisable key determinants. We identified 29 studies that evaluated BCI efficacy or effectiveness, were conducted in developing countries, and reported outcomes on infant and young children aged 6–24 months. Two potential determinants emerged: (1) effective studies used formative research to identify cultural barriers and enablers to optimal feeding practices, to shape the intervention strategy, and to formulate appropriate messages and mediums for delivery; (2) effective studies delineated the programme impact pathway to the target behaviour change and assessed intermediary behaviour changes to learn what worked. We found that BCI that used these developmental and implementation processes could be effective despite heterogeneous approaches and design components. Our analysis was constrained, however, by the limited published data on how design and implementation were carried out, perhaps because of publishing space limits. Information on cost-effectiveness, sustainability and scalability was also very limited. We suggest a more comprehensive reporting process and a more strategic research agenda to enable generalisable evidence to accumulate. PMID:24798264

  15. Final Technical Report: Effects of Changing Water and Nitrogen Inputs on a Mojave Desert Ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Stanley, D.; Nowak, Robert S.; Fenstermaker, Lynn, F.; Young, Michael,H.

    2007-11-30

    In order to anticipate the effects of global change on ecosystem function, it is essential that predictive relationships be established linking ecosystem function to global change scenarios. The Mojave Desert is of considerable interest with respect to global change. It contains the driest habitats in North America, and thus most closely approximates the world’s great arid deserts. In order to examine the effects of climate and land use changes, in 2001 we established a long-term manipulative global change experiment, called the Mojave Global Change Facility. Manipulations in this study include the potential effects of (1) increased summer rainfall (75 mm over three discrete 25 mm events), (2) increased nitrogen deposition (10 and 40 kg ha-1), and (3) the disturbance of biological N-fixing crusts . Questions addressed under this grant shared the common hypothesis that plant and ecosystem performance will positively respond to the augmentation of the most limiting resources to plant growth in the Mojave Desert, e.g., water and nitrogen. Specific hypotheses include (1) increased summer rainfall will significantly increase plant production through an alleviation of moisture stress in the dry summer months, (2) N-deposition will increase plant production in this N-limited system, particularly in wet years or in concert with added summer rain, and (3) biological crust disturbance will gradually decrease bio-available N, with concomitant long-term reductions in photosynthesis and ANPP. Individual plant and ecosystem responses to global change may be regulated by biogeochemical processes and natural weather variability, and changes in plant and ecosystem processes may occur rapidly, may occur only after a time lag, or may not occur at all. During the first PER grant period, we observed changes in plant and ecosystem processes that would fall under each of these time-response intervals: plant and ecosystem processes responded rapidly to added summer rain, whereas most

  16. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  17. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pumo, Dario, E-mail: dario.pumo@unipa.it; Caracciolo, Domenico, E-mail: domenico.caracciolo@unipa.it; Viola, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.viola77@unipa.it; Noto, Leonardo V., E-mail: leonardo.noto@unipa.it

    2016-01-15

    Recent years have been witnessing an increasing interest on global climate change and, although we are only at the first stage of the projected trends, some signals of climate alteration are already visible. Climate change encompasses modifications in the characteristics of several interrelated climate variables, and unavoidably produces relevant effects on almost all the natural processes related to the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate variations on the streamflow regime of small river basins in Mediterranean, seasonally dry, regions. The paper provides a quantitative evaluation of potential modifications in the flow duration curves (FDCs) and in the partitioning between surface and subsurface contributions to streamflow, induced by climate changes projected over the next century in different basins, also exploring the role exerted by different soil–vegetation compositions. To this aim, it is used a recent hydrological model, which is calibrated at five Sicilian (Italy) basins using a past period with available streamflow observations. The model is then forced by daily precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series representative of the current climatic conditions and two future temporal horizons, referring to the time windows 2045–2065 and 2081–2100. Future climatic series are generated by a weather generator, based on a stochastic downscaling of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The results show how the projected climatic modifications are differently reflected in the hydrological response of the selected basins, implying, in general, a sensible downshift of the FDCs, with a significant reduction in the mean annual streamflow, and substantial alterations in streamflow seasonality and in the relative importance of the surface and subsurface components. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime of ephemeral rivers could have important implications for the water resource management and

  18. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Kirshen, P. H.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Rosenzweig, C. E.; Ruth, M.; Solecki, W.; Tarr, J. A.

    2007-05-01

    Human settlements, both large and small, are where the vast majority of people on the Earth live. Expansion of cities both in population and areal extent, is a relentless process that will accelerate in the 21st century. As a consequence of urban growth both in the United States and around the globe, it is important to develop an understanding of how urbanization will affect the local and regional environment. Of equal importance, however, is the assessment of how cities will be impacted by the looming prospects of global climate change and climate variability. The potential impacts of climate change and variability has recently been enunciated by the IPCC's "Climate Change 2007" report. Moreover, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is preparing a series of "Synthesis and Assessment Products" (SAP) reports to support informed discussion and decision making regarding climate change and variability by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, and the general public. We are working on a chapter of SAP 4.6 ("Analysis of the Effects of Global Chance on Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems") wherein we wish to describe the effects of global climate change on human settlements. This paper will present the thoughts and ideas that are being formulated for our SAP report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We wish to present these ideas and concepts as a "work in progress" that are subject to several rounds of review, and we invite comments from listeners at this session on the rationale and veracity of our thoughts. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts

  19. Effects of Atorvastatin on Ventricular Late Potentials and Repolarization Dispersion in Patients with Hypercholesterolemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Sheng Chu

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Emerging evidence suggests that statins have a favorable impact on the reduction of arrhythmia events and sudden cardiac death in patients with structural heart disease. We aimed to investigate the possibly and directly favorable effects of statins on ventricular late potentials, QT dispersion, and transmural dispersion of repolarization attained by analyzing clinical electrocardiography (ECG risk stratification parameters in patients with hypercholesterolemia without structural heart disease. In total, 82 patients (45 females; mean age, 62 ± 10 years with hypercholesterolemia were enrolled in this prospective study to examine the effects of statin therapy (atorvastatin 10mg/day for 3 months on ECG risk stratification parameters. Surface 12-lead ECG and signal-average ECG (SAECG were recorded before and after statin treatment. The SAECG parameters, QT dispersion, Bazett-corrected QT (QTc dispersion, T wave peak-to-end interval (Tpe, and percentage of Tpe/QT interval were calculated and compared before and after statin therapy. Twelve-lead ambulatory 24-hour ECGs were recorded in 12 patients. The results demonstrated that after statin therapy for 3 months, serum levels of total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were significantly reduced (both p values < 0.001. However, neither significant changes of each SAECG parameter nor the frequency of late potentials were demonstrated after atorvastatin therapy. In addition, no significant changes in QT dispersion, QTc dispersion, Tpe, or Tpe/QT were found. However, 24-hour ambulatory ECG revealed a flattening effect of circadian variation of QTc dispersion after atorvastatin therapy. In conclusion, the favorable antiarrhythmia effect of atorvastatin (10 mg/day therapy cannot be directly reflected by analyzing these noninvasive ECG risk stratification parameters in low-risk patients with hypercholesterolemia.

  20. Ab initio effective core potentials including relativistic effects. II. Potential energy curves for Xe2, Xe+2, and Xe*2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ermler, W.C.; Lee, Y.S.; Pitzer, K.S.; Winter, N.W.

    1978-01-01

    Potential energy curves for the ground 1 Σ + /sub g/ state of Xe 2 , the first four states of the Xe + 2 ions, and the eight Xe* 2 excimer states corresponding to the addition of a 6ssigma/sub g/ Rydberg electron to these ion cores have been computed using averaged relativistic effective core potentials (AREP) and the self-consistent field approximation for the valence electrons. The calculations were carried out using the LS-coupling scheme with the effects of spin--orbit coupling included in the resulting potential energy curves using an empirical procedure. A comparison of nonrelativistic and averaged relativistic EP's and subsequent molecular calculations indicates that relativistic effects arising from the mass--velocity and Darwin terms are not important for these properties of Xe 2 molecules. Spectroscopic constants for Xe + 2 are in good agreement with all electron CI calculations suggesting that the computed values for Xe* 2 excimers should be reliable. The lifetime for the O/sub u/ + state of the Xe 2 * is computed to be 5.6 nsec which is in the range of the experimentally determined values

  1. The influence of logistics potentials on business management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał Matwiejczuk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Logistics is more and more often perceived as an integrated potential of changes in a business management system. Among the particular potentials, the key importance is assigned to logistics resources, capabilities, and particularly competences. Methods: The article points at exploitation of possibilities of logistics potentials in achieving desired changes in business management and reaching desired market and economic effects by a company. Except for literature studies, empirical research has been conducted in 111 companies operating in Poland.  Results and conclusions:  Research results have shown several symptoms of logistics influence on business management system. The significance of logistics potentials in business management system capacity development has been partially confirmed. Due to logistics potentials, the company can be more effective and efficient in reaching expected market and economic outcomes.  

  2. Relations between effective potentials in different dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollini, C.G.; Giambiagi, J.J.

    1983-01-01

    Using dimensional regularization, the one-loop approximation for the effective potential (finite temperature) is computed as an analytic function of the number of dimensions. It is shown that a simple relation exists between potentials for different dimensions. This relation reduces to a simple derivative when these numbers differ by two units. The limit of zero temperature is calculated and also the finite temperature corrections are given. (Author) [pt

  3. Intraoperative observation of changes in cochlear nerve action potentials during exposure to electromagnetic fields generated by mobile phones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colletti, Vittorio; Mandalà, Marco; Manganotti, Paolo; Ramat, Stefano; Sacchetto, Luca; Colletti, Liliana

    2011-07-01

    The rapid spread of devices generating electromagnetic fields (EMF) has raised concerns as to the possible effects of this technology on humans. The auditory system is the neural organ most frequently and directly exposed to electromagnetic activity owing to the daily use of mobile phones. In recent publications, a possible correlation between mobile phone usage and central nervous system tumours has been detected. Very recently a deterioration in otoacoustic emissions and in the auditory middle latency responses after intensive and long-term magnetic field exposure in humans has been demonstrated. To determine with objective observations if exposure to mobile phone EMF affects acoustically evoked cochlear nerve compound action potentials, seven patients suffering from Ménière's disease and undergoing retrosigmoid vestibular neurectomy were exposed to the effects of mobile phone placed over the craniotomy for 5 min. All patients showed a substantial decrease in amplitude and a significant increase in latency of cochlear nerve compound action potentials during the 5 min of exposure to EMF. These changes lasted for a period of around 5 min after exposure. The possibility that EMF can produce relatively long-lasting effects on cochlear nerve conduction is discussed and analysed in light of contrasting previous literature obtained under non-surgical conditions. Limitations of this novel approach, including the effects of the anaesthetics, craniotomy and surgical procedure, are presented in detail.

  4. Exploring transgender legal name change as a potential structural intervention for mitigating social determinants of health among transgender women of color.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Brandon J; Crosby, Richard; Bouris, Alida; Brown, Rayna; Bak, Trevor; Rosentel, Kris; VandeVusse, Alicia; Silverman, Michael; Salazar, Laura

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this exploratory study was to examine the effects of legal name change on socioeconomic factors, general and transgender-related healthcare access and utilization, and transgender-related victimization in a sample of young transgender women (transwomen) of color. A cross-sectional group comparison approach was used to assess the potential effects of legal name change. A convenience sample of young transwomen enrolled in a no-cost legal name change clinic were recruited to complete a 30-minute interviewer-guided telephone survey including sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors, health and well-being, health care utilization, transgender transition-related health care, and transgender-related victimization. Sixty-five transgender women of color (37 = pre-name change group; 28 = post-name change group) completed the survey. Results indicated that the transwomen in the post-name change group were significantly older than the pre-name change group. In age-adjusted analyses, the post-name change group was significantly more likely to have a higher monthly income and stable housing than the pre-name change group. No significant differences were observed for general healthcare utilization; however, a significantly greater percentage of transwomen in the pre-name change group reported postponing medical care due to their gender identity. In addition, a significantly larger proportion of transwomen in the pre-name change group reported using non-prescribed hormones injected by friends and experiencing verbal harassment by family and friends compared to transwomen in the post-name change group. Findings suggest that legal name change may be an important structural intervention for low-income transwomen of color, providing increased socioeconomic stability and improved access to primary and transition-related health care.

  5. Dynamic Electron Correlation Effects on the Ground State Potential Energy Surface of a Retinal Chromophore Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gozem, Samer; Huntress, Mark; Schapiro, Igor; Lindh, Roland; Granovsky, Alexander A; Angeli, Celestino; Olivucci, Massimo

    2012-11-13

    The ground state potential energy surface of the retinal chromophore of visual pigments (e.g., bovine rhodopsin) features a low-lying conical intersection surrounded by regions with variable charge-transfer and diradical electronic structures. This implies that dynamic electron correlation may have a large effect on the shape of the force fields driving its reactivity. To investigate this effect, we focus on mapping the potential energy for three paths located along the ground state CASSCF potential energy surface of the penta-2,4-dieniminium cation taken as a minimal model of the retinal chromophore. The first path spans the bond length alternation coordinate and intercepts a conical intersection point. The other two are minimum energy paths along two distinct but kinetically competitive thermal isomerization coordinates. We show that the effect of introducing the missing dynamic electron correlation variationally (with MRCISD) and perturbatively (with the CASPT2, NEVPT2, and XMCQDPT2 methods) leads, invariably, to a stabilization of the regions with charge transfer character and to a significant reshaping of the reference CASSCF potential energy surface and suggesting a change in the dominating isomerization mechanism. The possible impact of such a correction on the photoisomerization of the retinal chromophore is discussed.

  6. Study on change of multi-modally evoked potentials in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients after radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Ling; Chen Jiaxin; Zhang Lixiang; Wang Tiejian; Han Min; Lu Xiaoling

    2001-01-01

    Objective: To investigate possible changes of multi-modally evoked potentials in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients after radiotherapy. Methods: Altogether 48 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving primary conventional external beam irradiation were examined before and after radiotherapy to determine their brainstem auditory-evoked potential (BAEP), short-latency somatosensory-evoked potential (SLSEP) and pattern reversal visual-evoked potential (PRVEP). Results: In comparison with the conditions before radiotherapy, in different periods after radiotherapy abnormal peak latency and interval latency difference were found in BAEP, SLSEP and PRVEP. Conclusion: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma after radiotherapy may cause abnormal function of nerve conduction in early periods, which can be showed by BAEP, SLSEP, PRVEP, and injury can be timely detected if the three evoked potentials are used together. Thus authors suggest BAEP, SLSEP, PRVEP should be examined in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients during and after the radiotherapy so as to find early damage in auditory somatosensory and visual conduction pathways

  7. Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittbrenner, Benjamin J.; Pollack, Michael M.; Schilling, Jason W.; Olden, Julian D.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Torgersen, Christian E.

    2018-01-01

    Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors—information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17

  8. Modeling intrinsic potential for beaver (Castor canadensis) habitat to inform restoration and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittbrenner, Benjamin J; Pollock, Michael M; Schilling, Jason W; Olden, Julian D; Lawler, Joshua J; Torgersen, Christian E

    2018-01-01

    Through their dam-building activities and subsequent water storage, beaver have the potential to restore riparian ecosystems and offset some of the predicted effects of climate change by modulating streamflow. Thus, it is not surprising that reintroducing beaver to watersheds from which they have been extirpated is an often-used restoration and climate-adaptation strategy. Identifying sites for reintroduction, however, requires detailed information about habitat factors-information that is not often available at broad spatial scales. Here we explore the potential for beaver relocation throughout the Snohomish River Basin in Washington, USA with a model that identifies some of the basic building blocks of beaver habitat suitability and does so by relying solely on remotely sensed data. More specifically, we developed a generalized intrinsic potential model that draws on remotely sensed measures of stream gradient, stream width, and valley width to identify where beaver could become established if suitable vegetation were to be present. Thus, the model serves as a preliminary screening tool that can be applied over relatively large extents. We applied the model to 5,019 stream km and assessed the ability of the model to correctly predict beaver habitat by surveying for beavers in 352 stream reaches. To further assess the potential for relocation, we assessed land ownership, use, and land cover in the landscape surrounding stream reaches with varying levels of intrinsic potential. Model results showed that 33% of streams had moderate or high intrinsic potential for beaver habitat. We found that no site that was classified as having low intrinsic potential had any sign of beavers and that beaver were absent from nearly three quarters of potentially suitable sites, indicating that there are factors preventing the local population from occupying these areas. Of the riparian areas around streams with high intrinsic potential for beaver, 38% are on public lands and 17% are

  9. Post-Gaussian Effective Potential of Double sine-Gordon Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Weiran; Lou Senyue

    2005-01-01

    In the framework of the functional integral formalism, we calculate the effective potential of the double sine-Gordon (DsG) model up to the second order with an optimized expansion and the Coleman's normal-ordering prescription. Within the range of convergence, we make a comparison among the classical and the effective potential of the first and second order. The numerical analysis shows that the DsG post-Gaussian EP possesses some fine global properties and makes a substantial and a concordant quantum correction to the features of the classical potential.

  10. Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

    2013-03-01

    The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting

  11. Quantifying the effects of climate and post-fire landscape change on hydrologic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steimke, A.; Han, B.; Brandt, J.; Som Castellano, R.; Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonally snow-dominated, forested mountain watersheds supply water to many human populations globally. However, the timing and magnitude of water delivery from these watersheds has already and will continue to change as the climate warms. Changes in vegetation also affect the runoff response of watersheds. The largest driver of vegetation change in many mountainous regions is wildfire, whose occurrence is affected by both climate and land management decisions. Here, we quantify how direct (i.e. changes in precipitation and temperature) and indirect (i.e. changing fire regimes) effects of climate change influence hydrologic parameters such as dates of peak streamflow, annual discharge, and snowpack levels. We used the Boise River Basin, ID as a model laboratory to calculate the relative magnitude of change stemming from direct and indirect effects of climate change. This basin is relevant to study as it is well-instrumented and major drainages have experienced burning at different spatial and temporal intervals, aiding in model calibration. We built a hydrology-based integrated model of the region using a multiagent simulation framework, Envision. We used a modified HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) rainfall-runoff model and calibrated it to historic streamflow and snowpack observations. We combined a diverse set of climate projections with wildfire scenarios (low vs. high) representing two distinct intervals in the regional historic fire record. In fire simulations, we altered land cover coefficients to reflect a burned state post-fire, which decreased overall evapotranspiration rates and increased water yields. However, direct climate effects had a larger signal on annual variations of hydrologic parameters. By comparing and analyzing scenario outputs, we identified links and sensitivities between land cover and regional hydrology in the context of a changing climate, with potential implications for local land and water managers. In future

  12. Effect of caffeine on vestibular evoked myogenic potential: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Maria Eduarda Di Cavalcanti Alves de; Costa, Klinger Vagner Teixeira da; Menezes, Pedro de Lemos

    2017-12-24

    Caffeine can be considered the most consumed drug by adults worldwide, and can be found in several foods, such as chocolate, coffee, tea, soda and others. Overall, caffeine in moderate doses, results in increased physical and intellectual productivity, increases the capacity of concentration and reduces the time of reaction to sensory stimuli. On the other hand, high doses can cause noticeable signs of mental confusion and error induction in intellectual tasks, anxiety, restlessness, muscle tremors, tachycardia, labyrinthine changes, and tinnitus. Considering that the vestibular evoked myogenic potential is a clinical test that evaluates the muscular response of high intensity auditory stimulation, the present systematic review aimed to analyze the effects of caffeine on vestibular evoked myogenic potential. This study consisted of the search of the following databases: MEDLINE, CENTRAL, ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science, LILACS, SciELO and ClinicalTrials.gov. Additionally, the gray literature was also searched. The search strategy included terms related to intervention (caffeine or coffee consumption) and the primary outcome (vestibular evoked myogenic potential). Based on the 253 potentially relevant articles identified through the database search, only two full-text publications were retrieved for further evaluation, which were maintained for qualitative analysis. Analyzing the articles found, caffeine has no effect on vestibular evoked myogenic potential in normal individuals. Copyright © 2017 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  13. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

  14. Climate induced changes in biome distribution, NPP and hydrology for potential vegetation of the Upper Midwest U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motew, M.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    period, yet did reveal a slightly expanded domain for temperate deciduous broadleaf trees. The location of the Tension Zone, a broad ecotone dividing mixed forests in the north and southern hardwood forests and prairies in the south, was not observed to shift using analyses of both meteorological variables and through the results of simulated vegetation distributions. In general, our results supported the idea that climate change is spatially variable in nature, having significant effects on ecosystem structure and function. Our analysis also revealed interesting relationships among the key climatic quantities driving plant productivity and hydrology in the region. Most notably, while the model suggested that potential biome and PFT distributions have not likely shifted significantly in the past 60 years, climate change has contributed to substantial changes in coupled carbon, water, and energy exchange in natural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest US. We conclude that incorporating recent, high-resolution climate records into ecological studies offers valuable insight into the heterogeneous nature of climate change and its impacts on ecosystems at the local level.

  15. Global Change Effects on Plant-Soil Interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam, Marie

    of this dissertation has been to determine how soil food web structure and function is affected when the quantity and quality of plant input is altered under global change. By studying the abundance and composition of soil organisms, particularly those in the rhizosphere, closely associated with living plants, we...... (Paper III). Furthermore, by way of meta-analysis, the role of organisms in global change effects on ecosystem function is modelled (Paper IV). Among CO2, warming and summer drought, CO2 is the factor most consistently impacting soil organisms. CO2 increases abundance of microorganisms and nematodes...... suggest that not only the global change effects on established ecosystems, but also the global change effects on plant community composition as well as land use management may determine the composition and function of soil food webs in the future....

  16. Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruoyu; Kalin, Latif

    2018-02-01

    This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid (TSS) and nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover (LULC) change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama, USA. Four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change (2016-2040). Three projected LULC maps (2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorous (TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease, mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2015-08-01

    Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  18. Health effects of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghauri, B.; Salam, M.; Mirza I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper identifies potential health problems that may arise from global climates changes caused by increasing green house gases and depletion in the ozone layer. The mankind is responsible for saving or destroying the environment. There are many forms which can pollute the environment like greenhouse activities. The greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and ozone etc. cause pollutants in the environment. (A.B.)

  19. Effective nucleus-nucleus potentials derived from the generator coordinate method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedrich, H; Canto, L F [Oxford Univ. (UK). Dept. of Theoretical Physics

    1977-11-07

    The equivalence of the generator coordinate method (GCM) and the resonating group method (RGM) and the formal equivalence of the RGM and the orthogonality condition model (OCM) lead to a relation connecting the effective nucleus-nucleus potentials of the OCM with matrix elements of the GCM. This relation may be used to derive effective nucleus-nucleus potentials directly from GCM matrix elements without explicit reference to the potentials of the RGM. In a first application local and l-independent effective potentials are derived from diagonal GCM matrix elements which represent the energy surfaces of a two-centre shell model. Using these potentials the OCM can reproduce the results of a full RGM calculation very well for the elastic scattering of two ..cap alpha..-particles and fairly well for elastic /sup 16/O-/sup 16/O scattering.

  20. Two-loop effective potential for Wess-Zumino model using superfields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, R.P. dos; Srivastava, P.P.

    1989-01-01

    For the case of several interacting chiral superfields the propagators for the unconstrained superfield potentials in the 'shifted' theory, where the supersymmetry is explicity broken, are derived in a compact form. They are used to compute the one-loop effective potential in the general case, while a superfield calculation of the renormalized effective potential to two loops for the Wess-Zumino models is performed. (authors) [pt

  1. The effect of empirical potential functions on modeling of amorphous carbon using molecular dynamics method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Longqiu; Xu, Ming; Song, Wenping; Ovcharenko, Andrey; Zhang, Guangyu; Jia, Ding

    2013-01-01

    Empirical potentials have a strong effect on the hybridization and structure of amorphous carbon and are of great importance in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In this work, amorphous carbon at densities ranging from 2.0 to 3.2 g/cm 3 was modeled by a liquid quenching method using Tersoff, 2nd REBO, and ReaxFF empirical potentials. The hybridization, structure and radial distribution function G(r) of carbon atoms were analyzed as a function of the three potentials mentioned above. The ReaxFF potential is capable to model the change of the structure of amorphous carbon and MD results are in a good agreement with experimental results and density function theory (DFT) at low density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and below. The 2nd REBO potential can be used when amorphous carbon has a very low density of 2.4 g/cm 3 and below. Considering the computational efficiency, the Tersoff potential is recommended to model amorphous carbon at a high density of 2.6 g/cm 3 and above. In addition, the influence of the quenching time on the hybridization content obtained with the three potentials is discussed.

  2. Streamflow response to potential land use and climate changes in the James River watershed, Upper Midwest United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Ahiablame

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Study region: North and South Dakotas, United States Study focus: Changes in watershed hydrology are mainly driven by changes in land use and climate. This study evaluated the impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow in an agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest. Three projected climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1 of three general circulation models (CGCM3.1, GFDL-CM2.1, and HADCM3 were developed for mid (2046–2065 and end (2080–2099 of the 21st century. Corresponding land use maps for years 2055 and 2090 were obtained from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-Cover (FORE-SCE model. The scenarios were designed in a way that land use was changed while climate conditions remain constant, land use was then held constant under a changing climate, and finally both land use and climate were changed simultaneously to reflect possible future land use and climate conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: Potential land use and climate changes would result in 12–18% % and 17–41% increases in annual streamflow, respectively, by end of the century. The combined effects of land use and climate changes would intensify future streamflow responses with 13–60% increases in the region. This study provides a broad perspective on plausible hydrologic alterations in the region, prompting individual and collective opportunities to engage with this topic for sustainable planning and management of watersheds. Keywords: Watershed modeling, Precipitation, Agricultural land, Grassland, Dakota, SWAT

  3. The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

  4. Pilot Study on Potential Impacts of Fisheries-Induced Changes in Zooplankton Mortality on Marine Biogeochemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getzlaff, Julia; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-11-01

    In this pilot study we link the yield of industrial fisheries to changes in the zooplankton mortality in an idealized way accounting for different target species (planktivorous fish—decreased zooplankton mortality; large predators—increased zooplankton mortality). This indirect approach is used in a global coupled biogeochemistry circulation model to estimate the range of the potential impact of industrial fisheries on marine biogeochemistry. The simulated globally integrated response on phytoplankton and primary production is in line with expectations—a high (low) zooplankton mortality results in a decrease (increase) of zooplankton and an increase (decrease) of phytoplankton. In contrast, the local response of zooplankton and phytoplankton depends on the region under consideration: In nutrient-limited regions, an increase (decrease) in zooplankton mortality leads to a decrease (increase) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, in nutrient-replete regions, such as upwelling regions, we find an opposing response: an increase (decrease) of the zooplankton mortality leads to an increase (decrease) in both zooplankton and phytoplankton biomass. The results are further evaluated by relating the potential fisheries-induced changes in zooplankton mortality to those driven by CO2 emissions in a business-as-usual 21st century emission scenario. In our idealized case, the potential fisheries-induced impact can be of similar size as warming-induced changes in marine biogeochemistry.

  5. High-temperature axion potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowrick, N.J.; McDougall, N.A.

    1989-01-01

    We investigate the possibility of new terms in the high-temperature axion potential arising from the dynamical nature of the axion field and from higher-order corrections to the θ dependence in the free energy of the quark-gluon plasma. We find that the dynamical nature of the axion field does not affect the potential but that the higher-order effects lead to new terms in the potential which are larger than the term previously considered. However, neither the magnitude nor the sign of the potential can be calculated by a perturbative expansion of the free energy since the coupling is too large. We show that a change in the magnitude of the potential does not significantly affect the bound on the axion decay constant but that the sign of the potential is of crucial importance. By investigating the formal properties of the functional integral within the instanton dilute-gas approximation, we find that the sign of the potential does not change and that the minimum remains at θ=0. We conclude that the standard calculation of the axion energy today is not significantly modified by this investigation

  6. Modelling the effects of climate and land-use change on the hydrochemistry and ecology of the River Wye (Wales).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussi, Gianbattista; Whitehead, Paul G; Gutiérrez-Cánovas, Cayetano; Ledesma, José L J; Ormerod, Steve J; Couture, Raoul-Marie

    2018-06-15

    Interactions between climate change and land use change might have substantial effects on aquatic ecosystems, but are still poorly understood. Using the Welsh River Wye as a case study, we linked models of water quality (Integrated Catchment - INCA) and climate (GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and IPSL - Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) under greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to drive a bespoke ecosystem model that simulated the responses of aquatic organisms. The potential effects of economic and social development were also investigated using scenarios from the EU MARS project (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). Longitudinal position along the river mediated response to increasing anthropogenic pressures. Upland locations appeared particularly sensitive to nutrient enrichment or potential re-acidification compared to lowland environments which are already eutrophic. These results can guide attempts to mitigate future impacts and reiterate the need for sensitive land management in upland, temperate environments which are likely to become increasingly important to water supply and biodiversity conservation as the effects of climate change intensify. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The effectiveness of mobile-health behaviour change interventions for cardiovascular disease self-management: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaeffli Dale, Leila; Dobson, Rosie; Whittaker, Robyn; Maddison, Ralph

    2016-05-01

    Mobile wireless devices (mHealth) have been used to deliver cardiovascular disease self-management interventions to educate and support patients in making healthy lifestyle changes. This systematic review aimed to determine the effectiveness of mHealth interventions on behavioural lifestyle changes and medication adherence for cardiovascular disease self-management. A comprehensive literature search was conducted from inception through to 3 March 2015 using MEDLINE, PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library. Eligible studies used an experimental trial design to determine the effectiveness of an mHealth intervention to change lifestyle behaviours in any cardiovascular disease population. Data extracted included intervention and comparison group characteristics with a specific focus on the use of behaviour change techniques. Seven studies met our inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis. All interventions were delivered in part by mobile phone text messaging. Three studies were effective at improving adherence to medication and two studies increased physical activity behaviour. No effects were observed on dietary behaviour or smoking cessation, measured in one study each. Simple text messaging interventions appeared to be most effective; however, no clear relationships were found between study findings and intervention dose, duration or behaviour change techniques targeted. Our review found mHealth has the potential to change lifestyle behaviour. Results are still limited to a small number of trials, inconsistent outcome measures and ineffective reporting of intervention characteristics. Large scale, longitudinal studies are now warranted to gain a clear understanding of the effects of mHealth on behaviour change in the cardiovascular disease population. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  8. Matter-wave bright solitons in effective bichromatic lattice potentials

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Matter-wave bright solitons in bichromatic lattice potentials are considered and their dynamics for different lattice environments are studied. Bichromatic potentials are created from superpositions of (i) two linear optical lattices and (ii) a linear and a nonlinear optical lattice. Effective potentials are found for the solitons in both ...

  9. Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable--the mother, fetus, and newborn child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2013-03-11

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a large amount of evidence about global warming and the impact of human activities on global climate change. The Lancet Commission have identified a number of ways in which climate change can influence human health: lack of food and safe drinking water, poor sanitation, population migration, changing disease patterns and morbidity, more frequent extreme weather events, and lack of shelter. Pregnant women, the developing fetus, and young children are considered the most vulnerable members of our species and are already marginalized in many countries. Therefore, they may have increased sensitivity to the effects of climate change. Published literature in the fields of climate change, human health, tropical diseases, and direct heat exposure were assessed through the regular search engines. This article demonstrates that climate change will increase the risk of infant and maternal mortality, birth complications, and poorer reproductive health, especially in tropical, developing countries. Thus, climate change will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of the next generation among already challenged populations. There is limited knowledge regarding which regions will be most heavily affected. Research efforts are therefore required to identify the most vulnerable populations, fill knowledge gaps, and coordinate efforts to reduce negative health consequences. The effects of malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental problems, and direct heat exposure on maternal health outcomes will lead to severe health risks for mothers and children. Increased focus on antenatal care is recommended to prevent worsening maternal health and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Interventions to reduce the negative health impacts caused by climate change are also crucial. Every effort should be made to develop and maintain good antenatal care during extreme life conditions as a result of climate

  10. The effectiveness of strategies to change organisational culture to improve healthcare performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmelli, Elena; Flodgren, Gerd; Schaafsma, Mary Ellen; Baillie, Nick; Beyer, Fiona R; Eccles, Martin P

    2011-01-19

    Organisational culture is an anthropological metaphor used to inform research and consultancy and to explain organisational environments. Great emphasis has been placed during the last years on the need to change organisational culture in order to pursue effective improvement of healthcare performance. However, the precise nature of organisational culture in healthcare policy often remains underspecified and the desirability and feasibility of strategies to be adopted has been called into question. To determine the effectiveness of strategies to change organisational culture in order to improve healthcare performance.To examine the effectiveness of these strategies according to different patterns of organisational culture. We searched the following electronic databases for primary studies: The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Knowledge, PsycINFO, Business and Management, EThOS, Index to Theses, Intute, HMIC, SIGLE, and Scopus until October 2009. The Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) was searched for related reviews. We also searched the reference lists of all papers and relevant reviews identified, and we contacted experts in the field for advice on further potential studies. We considered randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or well designed quasi-experimental studies, controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series analyses (ITS) meeting the quality criteria used by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group (EPOC). Studies should be set in any type of healthcare organisation in which strategies to change organisational culture in order to improve healthcare performance were applied. Our main outcomes were objective measures of professional performance and patient outcome. At least two review authors independently applied the criteria for inclusion and exclusion criteria to scan titles and

  11. Potential environmental effects of controlled thermonuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Young, J.R.; Gore, B.F.

    1976-01-01

    The following topics are discussed: (1) the fusion reaction, (2) approach to the environmental analysis, (3) the reference CTR, (4) CTR environmental effects, (5) CTR accident potential, and (6) the advanced CTR

  12. Effective potential in the strong-coupling lattice QCD with next-to-next-to-learning order effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakano, Takashi Z.; Miura, Kohtaroh; Ohnishi, Akira

    2010-01-01

    We derive an analytic expression of the effective potential at finite temperature (T) and chemical potential (μ) in the strong-coupling lattice QCD for color SU(3) including next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) effects in the strong coupling expansion. NNLO effective action terms are systematically evaluated in the leading order of the large dimensional (1/d) expansion, and are found to come from some types of connected two-plaquette configurations. We apply the extended Hubbard-Stratonovich transformation and a gluonic-dressed fermion technique to the effective action, and obtain the effective potential as a function of T, μ, and two order parameters: chiral condensate and vector potential field. The next-to-leading order (NLO) and NNLO effects result in modifications of the wave function renormalization factor, quark mass, and chemical potential. We find that T c,μ =0 and μ c,T =0 are similar to the NLO results, whereas the position of the critical point is sensitive to NNLO corrections. (author)

  13. Evaluation of U.S. Geological Survey Monitoring-well network and potential effects of changes in water use, Newlands Project, Churchill County, Nevada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, Douglas K.; Seiler, Ralph L.; Watkins, Sharon A.

    2004-01-01

    Domestic wells tapping shallow ground water are an important source of potable water for rural residents of Lahontan Valley. For this reason, the public has expressed concern over the acquisition of water rights directed by Public Law 101-618. The acquisition has resulted in removal of land from irrigation, which could cause shallow domestic wells to go dry and adversely affect shallow ground-water quality. Periodic water-level measurements and water-quality sampling at a monitoring-well network developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provided data to evaluate the potential effects of changes in water use. The USGS, in cooperation with Churchill County, analyzed these data and the monitoring-well network to determine if the network provides an adequate means to measure the response of the shallow aquifer to changes in water use, and to determine if measurable changes have taken place. To evaluate the USGS monitoring-well network, wells were characterized by their distance from active canals or ditches, and from currently (2003) or formerly irrigated land. An analysis of historical data showed that about 9,800 acres of land have been removed from irrigation, generally from the late 1990's to 2003. Twenty-five wells in the network are within about 1 mile of fields removed from irrigation. Of the 25 wells, 13 are within 300 feet of canals or ditches where seepage maintains stable water levels. The 13 wells likely are not useful for detecting changes caused by reductions in irrigation. The remaining 12 wells range from about 400 to 3,800 feet from the nearest canal and are useful for detecting continued changes from current reductions in irrigation. The evaluation showed that of the 75 wells in the network, only 8 wells are likely to be useful for detecting the effects of future (after 2003) reductions in irrigation. Water levels at most of the monitoring wells near irrigated land have declined from 1998 to 2003 because of drought conditions and below normal

  14. Effect of Ionic Diffusion on Extracellular Potentials in Neural Tissue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geir Halnes

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Recorded potentials in the extracellular space (ECS of the brain is a standard measure of population activity in neural tissue. Computational models that simulate the relationship between the ECS potential and its underlying neurophysiological processes are commonly used in the interpretation of such measurements. Standard methods, such as volume-conductor theory and current-source density theory, assume that diffusion has a negligible effect on the ECS potential, at least in the range of frequencies picked up by most recording systems. This assumption remains to be verified. We here present a hybrid simulation framework that accounts for diffusive effects on the ECS potential. The framework uses (1 the NEURON simulator to compute the activity and ionic output currents from multicompartmental neuron models, and (2 the electrodiffusive Kirchhoff-Nernst-Planck framework to simulate the resulting dynamics of the potential and ion concentrations in the ECS, accounting for the effect of electrical migration as well as diffusion. Using this framework, we explore the effect that ECS diffusion has on the electrical potential surrounding a small population of 10 pyramidal neurons. The neural model was tuned so that simulations over ∼100 seconds of biological time led to shifts in ECS concentrations by a few millimolars, similar to what has been seen in experiments. By comparing simulations where ECS diffusion was absent with simulations where ECS diffusion was included, we made the following key findings: (i ECS diffusion shifted the local potential by up to ∼0.2 mV. (ii The power spectral density (PSD of the diffusion-evoked potential shifts followed a 1/f2 power law. (iii Diffusion effects dominated the PSD of the ECS potential for frequencies up to several hertz. In scenarios with large, but physiologically realistic ECS concentration gradients, diffusion was thus found to affect the ECS potential well within the frequency range picked up in

  15. The Multitrophic Effects of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat in Mountain Rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fell, Sarah C; Carrivick, Jonathan L; Brown, Lee E

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is driving the thinning and retreat of many glaciers globally. Reductions of ice-melt inputs to mountain rivers are changing their physicochemical characteristics and, in turn, aquatic communities. Glacier-fed rivers can serve as model systems for investigations of climate-change effects on ecosystems because of their strong atmospheric-cryospheric links, high biodiversity of multiple taxonomic groups, and significant conservation interest concerning endemic species. From a synthesis of existing knowledge, we develop a new conceptual understanding of how reducing glacier cover affects organisms spanning multiple trophic groups. Although the response of macroinvertebrates to glacier retreat has been well described, we show that there remains a relative paucity of information for biofilm, microinvertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. Enhanced understanding of whole river food webs will improve the prediction of river-ecosystem responses to deglaciation while offering the potential to identify and protect a wider range of sensitive and threatened species.

  16. Effective strategies for behavior change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Mary Thoesen; Pasternak, Ryan H

    2012-06-01

    Strategies that are most effective in both prevention and management of chronic disease consider factors such as age, ethnicity, community, and technology. Most behavioral change strategies derive their components from application of the health belief model, the theory of reasoned action/theory of planned behavior, transtheoretical model, and social cognitive theory. Many tools such as the readiness ruler and personalized action plan form are available to assist health care teams to facilitate healthy behavior change. Primary care providers can support behavior changes by providing venues for peer interventions and family meetings and by making new partnerships with community organizations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Selective effects of potassium elevations on glutamate signaling and action potential conduction in hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meeks, Julian P; Mennerick, Steven

    2004-01-07

    High-frequency synaptic transmission is depressed by moderate rises in the extracellular potassium concentration ([K+]o). Previous reports have indicated that depression of action potential signaling may underlie the synaptic depression. Here, we investigated the specific contribution of K+-induced action potential changes to synaptic depression. We found that glutamatergic transmission in the hippocampal area CA1 was significantly depressed by 8-10 mM [K+]o, but that GABAergic transmission remained intact. Riluzole, a drug that slows recovery from inactivation of voltage-gated sodium channels (NaChs), interacts with subthreshold [K+]o to depress afferent volleys and EPSCs strongly. Thus, elevated [K+]o likely depresses synapses by slowing NaCh recovery from inactivation. It is unclear from previous studies whether [K+]o-induced action potential depression is caused by changes in initiation, reliability, or waveform. We investigated these possibilities explicitly. [K+]o-induced afferent volley depression was independent of stimulus strength, suggesting that changes in action potential initiation do not explain [K+]o-induced depression. Measurements of action potentials from single axons revealed that 8 mM [K+]o increased conduction failures in a subpopulation of fibers and depressed action potential amplitude in all fibers. Together, these changes quantitatively account for the afferent volley depression. We estimate that conduction failure explains more than half of the synaptic depression observed at 8 mM [K+]o, with the remaining depression likely explained by waveform changes. These mechanisms of selective sensitivity of glutamate release to [K+]o accumulation represent a unique neuromodulatory mechanism and a brake on runaway excitation.

  18. Front gardens to car parks: changes in garden permeability and effects on flood regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warhurst, Jennifer R; Parks, Katherine E; McCulloch, Lindsay; Hudson, Malcolm D

    2014-07-01

    This study addresses the consequences of widespread conversion of permeable front gardens to hard standing car parking surfaces, and the potential consequences in high-risk urban flooding hotspots, in the city of Southampton. The last two decades has seen a trend for domestic front gardens in urban areas to be converted for parking, driven by the lack of space and increased car ownership. Despite media and political attention, the effects of this change are unknown, but increased and more intense rainfall, potentially linked to climate change, could generate negative consequences as runoff from impermeable surfaces increases. Information is limited on garden permeability change, despite the consequences for ecosystem services, especially flood regulation. We focused on eight flooding hotspots identified by the local council as part of a wider urban flooding policy response. Aerial photographs from 1991, 2004 and 2011 were used to estimate changes in surface cover and to analyse permeability change within a digital surface model in a GIS environment. The 1, 30 and 100 year required attenuation storage volumes were estimated, which are the temporary storage required to reduce the peak flow rate given surface permeability. Within our study areas, impermeable cover in domestic front gardens increased by 22.47% over the 20-year study period (1991-2011) and required attenuation storage volumes increased by 26.23% on average. These increases suggest that a consequence of the conversion of gardens to parking areas will be a potential increase in flooding frequency and severity - a situation which is likely to occur in urban locations worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Role of action potential configuration and the contribution of C²⁺a and K⁺ currents to isoprenaline-induced changes in canine ventricular cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szentandrássy, N; Farkas, V; Bárándi, L; Hegyi, B; Ruzsnavszky, F; Horváth, B; Bányász, T; Magyar, J; Márton, I; Nánási, P P

    2012-10-01

    Although isoprenaline (ISO) is known to activate several ion currents in mammalian myocardium, little is known about the role of action potential morphology in the ISO-induced changes in ion currents. Therefore, the effects of ISO on action potential configuration, L-type Ca²⁺ current (I(Ca)), slow delayed rectifier K⁺ current (I(Ks)) and fast delayed rectifier K⁺ current (I(Kr)) were studied and compared in a frequency-dependent manner using canine isolated ventricular myocytes from various transmural locations. Action potentials were recorded with conventional sharp microelectrodes; ion currents were measured using conventional and action potential voltage clamp techniques. In myocytes displaying a spike-and-dome action potential configuration (epicardial and midmyocardial cells), ISO caused reversible shortening of action potentials accompanied by elevation of the plateau. ISO-induced action potential shortening was absent in endocardial cells and in myocytes pretreated with 4-aminopyridine. Application of the I(Kr) blocker E-4031 failed to modify the ISO effect, while action potentials were lengthened by ISO in the presence of the I(Ks) blocker HMR-1556. Both action potential shortening and elevation of the plateau were prevented by pretreatment with the I(Ca) blocker nisoldipine. Action potential voltage clamp experiments revealed a prominent slowly inactivating I(Ca) followed by a rise in I(Ks) , both currents increased with increasing the cycle length. The effect of ISO in canine ventricular cells depends critically on action potential configuration, and the ISO-induced activation of I(Ks) - but not I(Kr) - may be responsible for the observed shortening of action potentials. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

  20. Möbius semiconductor nanostructures and deformation potential strain effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Benny; Willatzen, Morten; Gravesen, Jens

    2011-01-01

    A discussion of Möbius nanostructures is presented with focus on (1) the accuracy of the approximate differential-geometry formalism by Gravesen and Willatzen and (2) to assess the influence of bending-induced strain on Schrödinger equation eigenstates in semiconductor Möbius structures....... The differential-geometry model assumed complete confinement of a quantum-mechanical particle to a zero-thickness Möbius structure where the shape was computed based on minimization of elastic bending energy only and imposing the relevant boundary conditions. In the latter work, while bending was accounted...... for in finding the shape of the Möbius structure it was, for simplicity, neglected altogether in determining the direct strain influence on electronic eigenstates. However, as is well-known, deformation-potential strain effects In many semiconductor materials can lead to important changes in not only the energy...

  1. Evaluation of the prevention potential against landslide disasters. Jisuberi saigai wo taisho to shita bosai potential no hyoka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Umemura, J [Nihon University, Tokyo (Japan). College of Engineering; Hayashi, S; Ochiai, H [Kyushu University, Fukuoka (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1994-03-21

    In order to evaluate disaster potential and disaster prevention potential of landslides, which are complicatedly composed of natural factors and social ones, an evaluating method of the potentials is proposed by applying the multiple logistic model. Furthermore, a method making the potential map using this evaluation is shown. The multiple logistic model is based on the conception of multiple risks, and so the disaster potential is expressed with probability. The disaster prevention potential is evaluated by using the disaster potential. Taking a typical landslide district as an instance, some potential maps colored by each potential are shown. By these maps, effects of the preventive measures against disasters and changes in the disaster prevention potential according to the industrial structure as well as the population are evaluated. Furthermore, combination of the other disaster potentials obtained by changing the surveying interval or factors makes it possible to draw various disaster maps and disaster prevention ones for different purposes. 15 refs., 17 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Effective potentials in nonlinear polycrystals and quadrature formulae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Jean-Claude; Suquet, Pierre

    2017-08-01

    This study presents a family of estimates for effective potentials in nonlinear polycrystals. Noting that these potentials are given as averages, several quadrature formulae are investigated to express these integrals of nonlinear functions of local fields in terms of the moments of these fields. Two of these quadrature formulae reduce to known schemes, including a recent proposition (Ponte Castañeda 2015 Proc. R. Soc. A 471, 20150665 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2015.0665)) obtained by completely different means. Other formulae are also reviewed that make use of statistical information on the fields beyond their first and second moments. These quadrature formulae are applied to the estimation of effective potentials in polycrystals governed by two potentials, by means of a reduced-order model proposed by the authors (non-uniform transformation field analysis). It is shown how the quadrature formulae improve on the tangent second-order approximation in porous crystals at high stress triaxiality. It is found that, in order to retrieve a satisfactory accuracy for highly nonlinear porous crystals under high stress triaxiality, a quadrature formula of higher order is required.

  3. Regeneration potential of Taxodium distichum swamps and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, B.A.

    2009-01-01

    Seed bank densities respond to factors across local to landscape scales, and therefore, knowledge of these responses may be necessary in forecasting the effects of climate change on the regeneration of species. This study relates the seed bank densities of species of Taxodium distichum swamps to local water regime and regional climate factors at five latitudes across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley from southern Illinois to Louisiana. In an outdoor nursery setting, the seed banks of twenty-five swamps were exposed to non-flooded (freely drained) or flooded treatments, and the number and species of seeds germinating were recorded from each swamp during one growing season. Based on ANOVA analysis, the majority of dominant species had a higher rate of germination in non-flooded versus flooded treatments. Similarly, an NMS comparison, which considered the local water regime and regional climate of the swamps, found that the species of seeds germinating, almost completely shifted under non-flooded versus flooded treatments. For example, in wetter northern swamps, seeds of Taxodium distichum germinated in non-flooded conditions, but did not germinate from the same seed banks in flooded conditions. In wetter southern swamps, seeds of Eleocharis cellulosa germinated in flooded conditions, but did not germinate in non-flooded conditions. The strong relationship of seed germination and density relationships with local water regime and regional climate variables suggests that the forecasting of climate change effects on swamps and other wetlands needs to consider a variety of interrelated variables to make adequate projections of the regeneration responses of species to climate change. Because regeneration is an important aspect of species maintenance and restoration, climate drying could influence the species distribution of these swamps in the future. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  4. Influence of interface potential on the effective mass in Ge nanostructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbagiovanni, E. G.; Cosentino, S.; Terrasi, A.; Mirabella, S.; Lockwood, D. J.; Costa Filho, R. N.

    2015-01-01

    The role of the interface potential on the effective mass of charge carriers is elucidated in this work. We develop a new theoretical formalism using a spatially dependent effective mass that is related to the magnitude of the interface potential. Using this formalism, we studied Ge quantum dots (QDs) formed by plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD) and co-sputtering (sputter). These samples allowed us to isolate important consequences arising from differences in the interface potential. We found that for a higher interface potential, as in the case of PECVD QDs, there is a larger reduction in the effective mass, which increases the confinement energy with respect to the sputter sample. We further understood the action of O interface states by comparing our results with Ge QDs grown by molecular beam epitaxy. It is found that the O states can suppress the influence of the interface potential. From our theoretical formalism, we determine the length scale over which the interface potential influences the effective mass

  5. Triangulation of the monophasic action potential causes flattening of the electrocardiographic T-wave

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhuiyan, Tanveer Ahmed; Graff, Claus; Thomsen, Morten Bækgaard

    2012-01-01

    of the action potential under the effect of the IKr blocker sertindole and associated these changes to concurrent changes in the morphology of electrocardiographic T-waves in dogs. We show that, under the effect of sertindole, the peak changes in the morphology of action potentials occur at time points similar......It has been proposed that triangulation on the cardiac action potential manifests as a broadened, more flat and notched T-wave on the ECG but to what extent such morphology characteristics are indicative of triangulation is more unclear. In this paper, we have analyzed the morphological changes...... to those observed for the peak changes in T-wave morphology on the ECG. We further show that the association between action potential shape and ECG shape is dose-dependent and most prominent at the time corresponding to phase 3 of the action potential....

  6. Shedding light on research participation effects in behaviour change trials: a qualitative study examining research participant experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNeill, Virginia; Foley, Marian; Quirk, Alan; McCambridge, Jim

    2016-01-29

    The sequence of events in a behaviour change trial involves interactions between research participants and the trial process. Taking part in such a study has the potential to influence the behaviour of the participant, and if it does, this can engender bias in trial outcomes. Since participants' experience has received scant attention, the aim of this study is thus to generate hypotheses about which aspects of the conduct of behaviour change trials might matter most to participants, and thus have potential to alter subsequent behaviours and bias trial outcomes Twenty participants were opportunistically screened for a health compromising behaviour (unhealthy diet, lack of exercise, smoking or alcohol consumption) and recruited if eligible. Semi structured face to face interviews were conducted, after going through the usual processes involved in trial recruitment, baseline assessment and randomisation. Participants were given information on the contents of an intervention or control condition in a behaviour change trial, which was not actually implemented. Three months later they returned to reflect on these experiences and whether they had any effect on their behaviour during the intervening period. Data from the latter interview were analysed thematically using a modified grounded theory approach. The early processes of trial participation raised awareness of unhealthy behaviours, although most reported having had only fleeting intentions to change their behaviour as a result of taking part in this study, in the absence of interventions. However, careful examination of the accounts revealed evidence of subtle research participation effects, which varied according to the health behaviour, and its perceived social acceptability. Participants' relationships with the research study were viewed as somewhat important in stimulating thinking about whether and how to make lifestyle changes. These participants described no dramatic impacts attributable to taking part in

  7. Coaching behaviors associated with changes in fear of failure: changes in self-talk and need satisfaction as potential mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, David E; Coatsworth, J Douglas

    2007-04-01

    Cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms may regulate relations between youth perceptions of interpersonal aspects of the social ecology and their fear-of-failure (FF) levels. Youth (N=165) registered for a summer swim league rated their fear of failure at the beginning, middle, and end of the season. Extensive model comparisons indicated that youths' end-of-season ratings of coach behaviors could be reduced to three factors (affiliation, control, blame). Perceived control and blame from coaches predicted residualized change in corresponding aspects of youths' self-talk, but only changes in self-blame positively predicted changes in FF levels during the season. Perceived affiliation from coaches predicted autonomy need satisfaction which, in turn, negatively predicted the rate of change in FF levels during the season. These findings indicate that (a) youth perceptions of coaches were directly and indirectly related to acute socialization of FF and (b) both cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms contributed to this socialization process. Further research is needed to test for developmental differences in these mechanisms to determine whether findings generalize to more heterogeneous and at-risk populations and to investigate other potential social-ecological influences on socialization.

  8. The effective potential in the presence of several mass scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casas, J.A.; Di Clemente, V.; Quiros, M.

    1999-01-01

    We consider the problem of improving the effective potential in mass independent schemes, as e.g. the MS-bar or DR-bar renormalization scheme, in the presence of an arbitrary number of fields with PHI-dependent masses M i(PHI c ) . We use the decoupling theorem at the scales μ i M i (PHI c ) such that the matching between the effective (low energy) and complete (high energy) one-loop theories contains no thresholds. We find that for any value of PHI c , there is a convenient scale μ * ≡ min i M i (PHI c ), at which the loop expansion has the best behaviour and the effective potential has the least μ-dependence. Furthermore, at this scale the effective potential coincides with the (improved) tree-level one in the effective field theory. The decoupling method is explicitly illustrated with a simple Higgs-Yukawa model, along with its relationship with other decoupling prescriptions and with proposed multi-scale renormalization approaches. The procedure leads to a nice suppression of potentially large logarithms and can be easily adapted to include higher-loop effects, which is explicitly shown at the two-loop level

  9. Potential effects of climate change on streamflow for seven watersheds in eastern and central Montana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine J. Chase

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Projected changes in mean annual and mean monthly streamflow vary by the RegCM3 model selected, by watershed, and by future period. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to increase (11–21% for two of the four central Montana watersheds: Middle Musselshell River and Cottonwood Creek. Mean annual streamflows for all future periods are projected to decrease (changes of −24 to −75% for Redwater River watershed in eastern Montana. Mean annual streamflows are projected to increase slightly (2–15% for the 2030 period and decrease (changes of −16 to −44% for the 2080 period for the four remaining watersheds.

  10. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  11. Interactive effects of global climate change and pollution on marine microbes: the way ahead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Santos, Ana L; Coimbra, Joana; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Angela; Cleary, Daniel F R; Calado, Ricardo; Gomes, Newton C M

    2013-06-01

    Global climate change has the potential to seriously and adversely affect marine ecosystem functioning. Numerous experimental and modeling studies have demonstrated how predicted ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can affect marine microbes. However, researchers have largely ignored interactions between ocean acidification, increased UVR and anthropogenic pollutants in marine environments. Such interactions can alter chemical speciation and the bioavailability of several organic and inorganic pollutants with potentially deleterious effects, such as modifying microbial-mediated detoxification processes. Microbes mediate major biogeochemical cycles, providing fundamental ecosystems services such as environmental detoxification and recovery. It is, therefore, important that we understand how predicted changes to oceanic pH, UVR, and temperature will affect microbial pollutant detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. The intrinsic characteristics of microbes, such as their short generation time, small size, and functional role in biogeochemical cycles combined with recent advances in molecular techniques (e.g., metagenomics and metatranscriptomics) make microbes excellent models to evaluate the consequences of various climate change scenarios on detoxification processes in marine ecosystems. In this review, we highlight the importance of microbial microcosm experiments, coupled with high-resolution molecular biology techniques, to provide a critical experimental framework to start understanding how climate change, anthropogenic pollution, and microbiological interactions may affect marine ecosystems in the future.

  12. Potential analysis reveals changing number of climate states during the last 60 kyr

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Livina

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We develop and apply a new statistical method of potential analysis for detecting the number of states of a geophysical system, from its recorded time series. Estimation of the degree of a polynomial potential allows us to derive the number of potential wells in a system. The method correctly detects changes in the number of wells in artificial data. In ice-core proxy records of Greenland paleotemperature, a reduction in the number of climate states from two to one is detected sometime prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM, 23–19 kyr BP. This result is also found in analysis of Greenland Ca data. The bifurcation can be interpreted as loss of stability of the warm interstadial state of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. The proposed method can be applied to a wide range of geophysical time series exhibiting bifurcations.

  13. Potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yield variability under a changing climate in Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.; Zhao, G.; Gao, H.

    2017-12-01

    Texas has the largest farm area in the U.S, and its revenue from crop production ranks third overall. With the changing climate, hydrological extremes such as droughts are becoming more frequent and intensified, causing significant yield reduction in rainfed agricultural systems. The objective of this study is to investigate the potential impacts of agricultural drought on crop yields (corn, sorghum, and wheat) under a changing climate in Texas. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over 10 major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed in this study.The model is forced by a set of statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) that represent different greenhouse gas concentration (4.5 and 8.5 w/m2 are selected in this study). To carry out the analysis, VIC simulations from 1950 to 2099 are first analyzed to investigate how the frequency and severity of agricultural droughts will be altered in Texas (under a changing climate). Second, future crop yields are projected using a statistical crop model. Third, the effects of agricultural drought on crop yields are quantitatively analyzed. The results are expected to contribute to future water resources planning, with a goal of mitigating the negative impacts of future droughts on agricultural production in Texas.

  14. Potential Roles of Swedish Forestry in the Context of Climate Change Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Lundmark

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden, where forests cover more than 60% of the land area, silviculture and the use of forest products by industry and society play crucial roles in the national carbon balance. A scientific challenge is to understand how different forest management and wood use strategies can best contribute to climate change mitigation benefits. This study uses a set of models to analyze the effects of different forest management and wood use strategies in Sweden on carbon dioxide emissions and removals through 2105. If the present Swedish forest use strategy is continued, the long-term climate change mitigation benefit will correspond to more than 60 million tons of avoided or reduced emissions of carbon dioxide annually, compared to a scenario with similar consumption patterns in society but where non-renewable products are used instead of forest-based products. On average about 470 kg of carbon dioxide emissions are avoided for each cubic meter of biomass harvested, after accounting for carbon stock changes, substitution effects and all emissions related to forest management and industrial processes. Due to Sweden’s large export share of forest-based products, the climate change mitigation effect of Swedish forestry is larger abroad than within the country. The study also shows that silvicultural methods to increase forest biomass production can further reduce net carbon dioxide emissions by an additional 40 million tons of per year. Forestry’s contribution to climate change mitigation could be significantly increased if management of the boreal forest were oriented towards increased biomass production and if more wood were used to substitute fossil fuels and energy-intensive materials.

  15. Using an Analysis of Behavior Change to Inform Effective Digital Intervention Design: How Did the PRIMIT Website Change Hand Hygiene Behavior Across 8993 Users?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, B; Steele, M; Stuart, B; Joseph, J; Miller, S; Morrison, L; Little, P; Yardley, L

    2017-06-01

    In designing digital interventions for healthcare, it is important to understand not just whether interventions work but also how and for whom-including whether individual intervention components have different effects, whether a certain usage threshold is required to change behavior in each intervention and whether usage differs across population subgroups. We investigated these questions using data from a large trial of the digital PRimary care trial of a website based Infection control intervention to Modify Influenza-like illness and respiratory tract infection Transmission) (PRIMIT) intervention, which aimed to reduce respiratory tract infections (RTIs) by increasing hand hygiene behavior. Baseline and follow-up questionnaires measured behaviors, intentions and attitudes in hand hygiene. In conjunction with objective measures of usage of the four PRIMIT sessions, we analysed these observational data to examine mechanisms of behavior change in 8993 intervention users. We found that the PRIMIT intervention changed behavior, intentions and attitudes, and this change was associated with reduced RTIs. The largest hand hygiene change occurred after the first session, with incrementally smaller changes after each subsequent session, suggesting that engagement with the core behavior change techniques included in the first session was necessary and sufficient for behavior change. The intervention was equally effective for men and women, older and younger people and was particularly effective for those with lower levels of education. Our well-powered analysis has implications for intervention development. We were able to determine a 'minimum threshold' of intervention engagement that is required for hand hygiene change, and we discuss the potential implications this (and other analyses of this type) may have for further intervention development. We also discuss the application of similar analyses to other interventions.

  16. Effective potentials from complex simulations: a potential-matching algorithm and remarks on coarse-grained potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, Gergely

    2007-01-01

    The projection of complex interactions onto simple distance-dependent or angle-dependent classical mechanical functions is a long-standing theoretical challenge in the field of computational sciences concerning biomolecules, colloids, aggregates and simple systems as well. The construction of an effective potential may be based on theoretical assumptions, on the application of fitting procedures on experimental data and on the simplification of complex molecular simulations. Recently, a force-matching method was elaborated to project the data of Car-Parrinello ab initio molecular dynamics simulations onto two-particle classical interactions (Izvekov et al 2004 J. Chem. Phys. 120 10896). We have developed a potential-matching algorithm as a practical analogue of this force-matching method. The algorithm requires a large number of configurations (particle positions) and a single value of the potential energy for each configuration. We show the details of the algorithm and the test calculations on simple systems. The test calculation on water showed an example in which a similar structure was obtained for qualitatively different pair interactions. The application of the algorithm on reverse Monte Carlo configurations was tried as well. We detected inconsistencies in a part of our calculations. We found that the coarse graining of potentials cannot be performed perfectly both for the structural and the thermodynamic data. For example, if one applies an inverse method with an input of the pair-correlation function, it provides energetics data for the configurations uniquely. These energetics data can be different from the desired ones obtained by all atom simulations, as occurred in the testing of our potential-matching method

  17. Potential impacts of changing supply-water quality on drinking water distribution: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Zhang, Ya; Knibbe, Willem-Jan; Feng, Cuijie; Liu, Wentso; Medema, Gertjan; van der Meer, Walter

    2017-06-01

    Driven by the development of water purification technologies and water quality regulations, the use of better source water and/or upgraded water treatment processes to improve drinking water quality have become common practices worldwide. However, even though these elements lead to improved water quality, the water quality may be impacted during its distribution through piped networks due to the processes such as pipe material release, biofilm formation and detachment, accumulation and resuspension of loose deposits. Irregular changes in supply-water quality may cause physiochemical and microbiological de-stabilization of pipe material, biofilms and loose deposits in the distribution system that have been established over decades and may harbor components that cause health or esthetical issues (brown water). Even though it is clearly relevant to customers' health (e.g., recent Flint water crisis), until now, switching of supply-water quality is done without any systematic evaluation. This article reviews the contaminants that develop in the water distribution system and their characteristics, as well as the possible transition effects during the switching of treated water quality by destabilization and the release of pipe material and contaminants into the water and the subsequent risks. At the end of this article, a framework is proposed for the evaluation of potential transition effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Effects on functional groups and zeta potential of SAP1pulsed electric field technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Rong; Li, Xuenan; Lin, Songyi; Wang, Jia

    2017-01-01

    SAP 1 pulsed electric field (PEF) technology. The effects of electric field intensity and pulse frequency on SAP 1 electric field intensity 15 kV cm -1 , pulse frequency 1600 Hz and flow velocity 2.93 mL min -1 ). Furthermore, the PEF-treated SAP 1 < MW < 3kDa under optimal conditions lacked the characteristic absorbance of N-H, C = C and the amide band and the zeta potential was reduced to -18.0 mV. Overall, the results of the present study suggest that the improvement of antioxidant activity of SAP 1 < MW < 3kDa is a result of the contribution of the functional groups and the change in zeta potential when treated with PEF. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

    2018-08-01

    Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Quark motional effects on the interquark potential in baryons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Arata; Suganuma, Hideo

    2008-01-01

    We study the heavy-heavy-light quark (QQq) system in a nonrelativistic potential model, and investigate the quark motional effect on the inter-two-quark potential in baryons. We adopt the Hamiltonian with the static three-quark potential which is obtained by the first-principle calculation of lattice QCD, rather than the two-body force in ordinary quark models. Using the renormalization-group inspired variational method in discretized space, we calculate the ground-state energy of QQq systems and the light-quark spatial distribution. We find that the effective string tension between the two heavy quarks is reduced compared to the static three-quark case. This reduction of the effective string tension originates from the geometrical difference between the interquark distance and the flux-tube length, and is conjectured to be a general property for baryons

  1. Global climate change and potential effects on pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.D. Bryant

    2009-01-01

    General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1◦C to 5◦C as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change which will in turn...

  2. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  3. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  4. Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

  5. Towards a Kohn-Sham potential via the optimized effective-potential method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norman, M.R.; Koelling, D.D.

    1984-01-01

    The optimized effective-potential (OEP) method is applied to a self-interaction-corrected local-spin-density (SIC-LSD) energy functional. The local potential which results has the useful properties of being both self-interaction free and orbital independent, and it can thus be regarded as a good approximation to the exact Kohn-Sham potential. A number of atomic systems are examined in the exchange-only and in the Ceperley-Alder exchange-correlation approximations. The resulting total energies are very close to those obtained by previous applications of the LSD-SIC functional. The resultant potentials are structurally similar to those derived by applying the OEP method to a Hartree-Fock Hamiltonian: showing much improved behavior over the local-spin-density approximation in both large- and small-r regions as well as the characteristic intershell cusplike structure. The eigenvalues have less formal significance than the more standard approaches, especially those for unoccupied orbitals which seem to have no significance whatsoever. Nonetheless, the highest occupied eigenvalue agrees closely with the conventional LSD-SIC value. However, for the deeper levels, each eigenvalue lies higher than the comparable eigenvalue of the conventional SIC, although lower than the eigenvalue of the LSD potential: the deeper the level, the larger the difference. This property follows from the nonvariational character of the eigenvalues, and it is shown that one can obtain realistic excitation spectra from this formalism by utilizing the appropriate variational quantity. The results obtained illustrate some of the less understood issues in the application of the Kohn-Sham procedure within density-functional theory

  6. Grain growth behavior of Cr dispersed UO{sub 2} pellets according to change of oxygen potential during the isothermal sintering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Jang Soo; Yang, Jae Ho; Kim, Dong Joo; Kim, Jong Hun; Nam, Ik Hui; Rhee, Young Woo; Kim, Keon Sik [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    Recent development of advanced UO{sub 2} pellet materials for commercial reactors is mainly focused on the large grain pellet which can deform easily at an elevated temperature. Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3}-doped UO{sub 2} pellet is one of the promising candidates. To increase the grain size effectively, it is important to control the additive content and sintering atmosphere. Relevant research on the Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3} doped UO{sub 2} system revealed that the doped Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3} formed a liquid phase under optimized oxygen potential, and those liquid phases promoted the grain growth. Recent work also showed that step-wise variation of sintering atmosphere during the isothermal annealing step significantly increased the grain size of Cr{sub 2}O{sub 3} doped UO{sub 2} pellet. In this paper, we investigated effect of oxygen potential change at the beginning of isothermal sintering stage on the grain growth in metallic Cr dispersed UO{sub 2} pellets. The study on the milling effect of powder mixture on the grain growth is also a part of this work.

  7. An effective pair potential for liquid semiconductor, Se: Structure and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The effective pair potential of liquid semiconductor Se is extracted from its experimental structure factor data using an accurate liquid state theory and this shows important basic features. A model potential incorporating the basic features of the structure factor extracted potential is suggested. This model potential is then used ...

  8. Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zihua; Sandhu, Hardev S; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes (landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951-2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller (Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm (Mythimna separate (Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.

  9. Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Acid-Sensitivity of High-Elevation Lakes in the Georgia Basin, British Columbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donna Strang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models predict increased temperature and precipitation in the Georgia Basin, British Colmbia; however, little is known about the impacts on high-elevation regions. In the current study, fifty-four high-elevation lakes (754–2005 m a.s.l. were studied to investigate the potential influence of climate change on surface water acid-sensitivity. Redundancy analysis indicated that the concentration of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and associated metals was significantly influenced by climate parameters. Furthermore, these components differed significantly between biogeoclimatic zones. Modelled soil base cation weathering for a subset of the study lakes (n=11 was predicted to increase by 9% per 1°C increase in temperature. Changes in temperature and precipitation may potentially decrease the pH of surface waters owing to changes in anthropogenic deposition and organic acid production. In contrast, increased soil base cation weathering may increase the critical load (of acidity of high-elevation lakes. Ultimately, the determining factor will be whether enhanced base cation weathering is sufficient to buffer changes in natural and anthropogenic acidity. Mountain and high-elevation regions are considered early warning systems to climate change; as such, future monitoring is imperative to assess the potential ramifications of climate change on the hydrochemistry and acid-sensitivity of these surface waters.

  10. Anodal sensory nerve action potentials: From physiological understanding to potential clinical applicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leote, Joao; Pereira, Pedro; Cabib, Christopher; Cipullo, Federica; Valls-Sole, Josep

    2016-06-01

    Low-intensity electrical stimuli of digital nerves may generate a double peak potential (DPp), composed of a cathodal (caAP) and an anodal (anAP) potential in orthodromic recordings. We studied the effects on caAP and anAP of stimuli of variable intensity, duration, and frequency. We also applied a conditioning stimulus to study potential differences in recovery time. The anAP was obtained in 33 of 40 healthy subjects (82.5%) and 4 of 20 patients with various types of sensory neuropathies (20%). Changes in stimulus duration and intensity had reciprocal effects on the amplitude of the anAP and the caAP. There were significant differences in recovery time between caAP and anAP after a conditioning stimulus. The caAP and anAP are 2 interdependent waveforms generated by different effects of the same stimulus over axons at the verge of depolarization. Muscle Nerve 53: 897-905, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Effective theories of scattering with an attractive inverse-square potential and the three-body problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barford, Thomas; Birse, Michael C

    2005-01-01

    A distorted-wave version of the renormalization group is applied to scattering by an inverse-square potential and to three-body systems. In attractive three-body systems, the short-distance wavefunction satisfies a Schroedinger equation with an attractive inverse-square potential, as shown by Efimov. The resulting oscillatory behaviour controls the renormalization of the three-body interactions, with the renormalization-group flow tending to a limit cycle as the cut-off is lowered. The approach used here leads to single-valued potentials with discontinuities as the bound states are cut off. The perturbations around the cycle start with a marginal term whose effect is simply to change the phase of the short-distance oscillations, or the self-adjoint extension of the singular Hamiltonian. The full power counting in terms of the energy and two-body scattering length is constructed for short-range three-body forces

  12. A Review of the Integrated Effects of Changing Climate, Land Use, and Dams on Mekong River Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadu Pokhrel

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The ongoing and proposed construction of large-scale hydropower dams in the Mekong river basin is a subject of intense debate and growing international concern due to the unprecedented and potentially irreversible impacts these dams are likely to have on the hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the basin. Studies have shown that some of the dams built in the tributaries and the main stem of the upper Mekong have already caused basin-wide impacts by altering the magnitude and seasonality of flows, blocking sediment transport, affecting fisheries and livelihoods of downstream inhabitants, and changing the flood pulse to the Tonle Sap Lake. There are hundreds of additional dams planned for the near future that would result in further changes, potentially causing permanent damage to the highly productive agricultural systems and fisheries, as well as the riverine and floodplain ecosystems. Several studies have examined the potential impacts of existing and planned dams but the integrated effects of the dams when combined with the adverse hydrologic consequences of climate change remain largely unknown. Here, we provide a detailed review of the existing literature on the changes in climate, land use, and dam construction and the resulting impacts on hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems across the Mekong. The review provides a basis to better understand the effects of climate change and accelerating human water management activities on the coupled hydrological-agricultural-ecological systems, and identifies existing challenges to study the region’s Water, Energy, and Food (WEF nexus with emphasis on the influence of future dams and projected climate change. In the last section, we synthesize the results and highlight the urgent need to develop integrated models to holistically study the coupled natural-human systems across the basin that account for the impacts of climate change and water infrastructure development

  13. Changes in effective moisture on the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1981-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Y.; Wu, S.; Zhao, D.

    2013-12-01

    Observed evaporative demand has decreased worldwide during the past several decades. This trend is also noted on the Tibetan Plateau, a region that is particularly sensitive to climate change. However, actual evapotranspiration trends and their relationship to drought stress on the Tibetan Plateau are poorly understood. We analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in potential evapotranspiration(PET), actual evapotranspiration(AET) and effective moisture (defined as AET/PET) during 1981-2010. Climate data from 80 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau were compiled for the period 1981-2010. New plant functional types were defined for the Tibetan Plateau and evapotranspiration is simulated by the modified Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ). The results show regional trends towards decreasing PET and statistically significant increases in AET (p < 0.05) and effective moisture (p < 0.001) during the period 1981-2010. A transition from significant negative to positive PET occurred in 1997. Additionally, a pronounced increase in effective moisture occurred during the period 1981-1997 because of significant decreased PET before 1997.

  14. Effects of climate change on seashores; Effekter av klimaendringer for havstrand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Follestad, Arne; Evju, Marianne; Oedegaard, Frode

    2011-04-15

    Projected climate changes, particularly increased sea level, but also increased winter temperatures, increased precipitation and a prolonged growth period, are expected to have considerable effects in some nature types (habitats) in coastal areas in Norway. Seashores, being located closely to the sea, are strongly influenced by salt, and include a variety of nature types, e.g. sand dunes, drift lines, sea meadows and shores on different substrate types, etc. Several seashore nature types are particularly important habitats for communities of plants and insects, as well as breeding areas and stop over places during migration for birds. Accordingly the biological diversity connected to these nature types is great, and they also hold a lot of red listed species. It is difficult to predict the effect of various climatic changes (changes in precipitation, temperature, wind and sea level) on seashores, partly because different factors may interact to intensify or cancel each other out. Seashores are naturally dynamic systems, and local environmental conditions, such as substrate, topography, currents, and exposure, will affect the occurrence and change in area of different nature types. This complicates a general assessment of effects of sea level rise on seashore nature types. It is clear, however, that the effects of sea level rise will depend on the state of inward areas; where inward areas are developed, the available areas for natural dynamics to occur will be reduced. Seashore areas are already exposed to impacts, such as agriculture, infrastructure, human traffic, pollution and invading species. Such impacts may reduce area or change the state of the habitats, and climate change will interact with these factors to affect seashore habitats. Reduction of negative effects of human imposed factors will potentially increase the ability for adaptation of species and ecosystems to climate change. Many of the rare, red listed vascular plants on seashores are southern

  15. One-loop effective potential on hyperbolic manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cognola, G.; Kirsten, K.; Zerbini, S.

    1993-01-01

    The one-loop effective potential for a scalar field defined on an ultrastatic space-time whose spatial part is a compact hyperbolic manifold is studied using ζ-function regularization for the one-loop effective action. Other possible regularizations are discussed in detail. The renormalization group equations are derived, and their connection with the conformal anomaly is pointed out. The symmetry breaking and the topological mass generation are also discussed

  16. Effect of practicing yoga on cervical vestibular evoked myogenic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shambhu, Tejaswini; Kumar, Shubhaganga Dhrruva; Prabhu, Prashanth

    2017-10-01

    The present study attempted to determine the effect of practicing yoga on functioning of sacculo-collic pathway using cervical vestibular evoked myogenic potential (cVEMP). cVEMP was recorded from 40 participants (20 who practice yoga regularly and 20 who do not practice yoga regularly). The differences in amplitude of P1, N1, P1-N1 complex, asymmetry ratio and latencies of P1 and N1 of cVEMP were compared between both the groups. The results of the study showed that there was a significant increase (p yoga was significantly lower (Mean = 6.73) compared to the control group (Mean = 19.13). Multivariate regression analyses suggested that the number of years of yoga practice significantly predicted the amplitude of P1-N1 complex (β = 0.70, p yoga improves postural control and strengthens the muscles and vestibular system leading to enhanced cVEMP responses. The plastic changes in the vestibular system and increased muscular strength because of constant practicing of yoga could have led to changes in cVEMP responses. However, further studies on a larger group of individuals are essential for better clinical applicability of the results.

  17. Multivesicular release underlies short term synaptic potentiation independent of release probability change in the supraoptic nucleus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle E Quinlan

    Full Text Available Magnocellular neurons of the supraoptic nucleus receive glutamatergic excitatory inputs that regulate the firing activity and hormone release from these neurons. A strong, brief activation of these excitatory inputs induces a lingering barrage of tetrodotoxin-resistant miniature EPSCs (mEPSCs that lasts for tens of minutes. This is known to accompany an immediate increase in large amplitude mEPSCs. However, it remains unknown how long this amplitude increase can last and whether it is simply a byproduct of greater release probability. Using in vitro patch clamp recording on acute rat brain slices, we found that a brief, high frequency stimulation (HFS of afferents induced a potentiation of mEPSC amplitude lasting up to 20 min. This amplitude potentiation did not correlate with changes in mEPSC frequency, suggesting that it does not reflect changes in presynaptic release probability. Nonetheless, neither postsynaptic calcium chelator nor the NMDA receptor antagonist blocked the potentiation. Together with the known calcium dependency of HFS-induced potentiation of mEPSCs, our results imply that mEPSC amplitude increase requires presynaptic calcium. Further analysis showed multimodal distribution of mEPSC amplitude, suggesting that large mEPSCs were due to multivesicular glutamate release, even at late post-HFS when the frequency is no longer elevated. In conclusion, high frequency activation of excitatory synapses induces lasting multivesicular release in the SON, which is independent of changes in release probability. This represents a novel form of synaptic plasticity that may contribute to prolonged excitatory tone necessary for generation of burst firing of magnocellular neurons.

  18. Gauge invariance and the effective potential: the Abelian Higgs model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramaswamy, S.

    1995-01-01

    The gauge invariance of the effective potential in the Abelian Higgs model is examined. The Nielsen identities, which ensure gauge independence of the effective potential and other physical quantities, are shown to hold at finite temperature and in the presence of the chemical potential. It is also shown that, as a consequence of the Nielsen identities, the standard order parameter for symmetry breaking, namely the scalar field vacuum expectation value, has a non-zero parametric dependence on the gauge choice employed. These are then verified to one loop at finite temperature. High-temperature symmetry breaking is considered. In the leading high-temperature limit, the potential agrees with the previous calculations. (orig.)

  19. Effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity in Eastern China, singly and in combination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Fulu; Feng, Zhaozhong; Tang, Haoye; Chen, Yi; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution and climate change are increasing threats to agricultural production and food security. Extensive studies have focused on the effect of climate change, but the interactive effects of multiple global change factors are poorly understood. Here, we incorporate the interactions between climate change, carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) into an eco-physiological mechanistic model based on three years of O3 Free-Air Concentration Elevation (O3-FACE) experiments. We then investigate the effects of climate change, elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and rising O3 concentration ([O3]) on wheat growth and productivity in eastern China in 1996-2005 (2000s) and 2016-2025 (2020s) under two climate change scenarios, singly and in combination. We find the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on wheat productivity have spatially explicit patterns; the effect of climate change dominates the general pattern, which is however subject to the large uncertainties of climate change scenarios. Wheat productivity is estimated to increase by 2.8-9.0% due to elevated [CO2] however decline by 2.8-11.7% due to rising [O3] in the 2020s, relative to the 2000s. The combined effects of CO2 and O3 are less than that of O3 only, on average by 4.6-5.2%, however with O3 damage outweighing CO2 benefit in most of the region. This study demonstrates a more biologically meaningful and appropriate approach for assessing the interactive effects of climate change, CO2 and O3 on crop growth and productivity. Our findings promote the understanding on the interactive effects of multiple global change factors across contrasting climate conditions, cast doubt on the potential of CO2 fertilization effect in offsetting possible negative effect of climate change on crop productivity as suggested by many previous studies.

  20. The oxidative potential and biological effects induced by PM10 obtained in Mexico City and at a receptor site during the MILAGRO Campaign

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintana, Raul; Serrano, Jesus; Gomez, Virginia; Foy, Benjamin de; Miranda, Javier; Garcia-Cuellar, Claudia; Vega, Elizabeth; Vazquez-Lopez, Ines; Molina, Luisa T.; Manzano-Leon, Natalia; Rosas, Irma; Osornio-Vargas, Alvaro R.

    2011-01-01

    As part of a field campaign that studied the impact of Mexico City pollution plume at the local, sub-regional and regional levels, we studied transport-related changes in PM 10 composition, oxidative potential and in vitro toxicological patterns (hemolysis, DNA degradation). We collected PM 10 in Mexico City (T 0 ) and at a suburban-receptor site (T 1 ), pooled according to two observed ventilation patterns (T 0 → T 1 influence and non-influence). T 0 samples contained more Cu, Zn, and carbon whereas; T 1 samples contained more of Al, Si, P, S, and K (p 4 -2 increased in T 1 during the influence periods. Oxidative potential correlated with Cu/Zn content (r = 0.74; p 1 PM 10 induced greater hemolysis and T 0 PM 10 induced greater DNA degradation. Influence/non-influence did not affect oxidative potential nor biological effects. Results indicate that ventilation patterns had little effect on intrinsic PM 10 composition and toxicological potential, which suggests a significant involvement of local sources. - Highlights: → Transport-related changes in PM 10 composition, oxidative potential and in vitro toxicity were studied. → Cu, Zn, and carbon levels were predominant in urban PM 10 ; receptor site PM 10 was rich in soil elements. → SO 4 -2 was the only component increased in PM 10 from the receptor during the influence periods. → PM 10 oxidative potential correlates with Cu/Zn content but not with studied biological effects. → Ventilation patterns had little effect on PM 10 composition and toxicity. - Mexico City ventilation patterns had little effect on the intrinsic PM 10 composition and toxicological potential, which suggests a significant involvement of local sources as opposed to downwind transport.

  1. The determinants of cost-effectiveness potential: an historical perspective on lipid-lowering therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Refoios Camejo, Rodrigo; McGrath, Clare; Miraldo, Marisa; Rutten, Frans

    2013-05-01

    The concept of cost effectiveness emerged in an attempt to link the prices of new healthcare technologies to the immediate value they provide, with payers defining the acceptable cost per unit of incremental effect over the alternatives available. It has been suggested that such measures allow developers to assess potential market profitability in an early stage of development, but may result in discouraging investment in efficient research if not used appropriately. The objective of this study is to identify the pattern of the factors determining cost effectiveness and assess the evolution of cost-effectiveness potential for drugs in development using lipid-lowering therapy as a case study. The study is based on observational clinical and market data covering a 20-year period (from 1990 to 2010) in the UK. Real-life clinical data including total cholesterol laboratory test results were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and are used to illustrate how the clinical effectiveness of existing standard care changed over time in patients managed in clinical practice. Prescription Cost Analysis (PCA) data were extracted and the average price of the drug mix used was computed throughout the study period. Using this information, the maximum clinical benefit and cost savings to be had were estimated for each year of the analysis using a cost-effectiveness model. Subsequently, the highest price a new technology providing the maximum clinical effectiveness possible (i.e. eliminating cardiovascular risk from high cholesterol levels) could achieve under current cost-effectiveness rules was calculated and used as a measure of the potential cost effectiveness of drugs in development. The results in this study show that the total cholesterol values of patients managed in clinical practice moved steadily towards recommended clinical targets. Overall, the absolute potential for incremental health-related quality of life decreased by approximately 78

  2. America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liverman, D. M.; McConnell, M. C.; Raven, P.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study examines information needs and recommends ways the federal government can better inform responses by enhancing climate change and greenhouse gas information and reporting systems and by improving climate communication and education. Demand for better information to support climate-related decisions has grown rapidly as people, organizations, and governments have moved ahead with plans and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the impacts of climate change. To meet this demand, good information systems and services are needed. Without such systems, decision makers cannot evaluate whether particular policies and actions are achieving their goals or should be modified. Although the many non-federal efforts to reduce emissions and/or adapt to future climate changes carry considerable potential to reduce risks related to climate change, there is currently no comprehensive way to assess the effectiveness of those efforts. In addition, the diverse climate change responses to date have resulted in a patchwork of regional, state, and local policies that has prompted many state and business leaders to call for the development of a more predictable and coherent policy environment at the federal level. This report demonstrates that the nation lacks comprehensive, robust, and credible information and reporting systems to inform climate choices and evaluate their effectiveness. This report also argues that decision makers can benefit from a systematic and iterative framework for responding to climate change, in which decisions and policies can be revised in light of new information and experience and that improved information and reporting systems allow for ongoing evaluation of responses to climate risks. The

  3. Acoustic noise alters selective attention processes as indicated by direct current (DC) brain potential changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimmel, Karin; Schätzer, Julia; Trimmel, Michael

    2014-09-26

    Acoustic environmental noise, even of low to moderate intensity, is known to adversely affect information processing in animals and humans via attention mechanisms. In particular, facilitation and inhibition of information processing are basic functions of selective attention. Such mechanisms can be investigated by analyzing brain potentials under conditions of externally directed attention (intake of environmental information) versus internally directed attention (rejection of environmental stimuli and focusing on memory/planning processes). This study investigated brain direct current (DC) potential shifts-which are discussed to represent different states of cortical activation-of tasks that require intake and rejection of environmental information under noise. It was hypothesized that without background noise rejection tasks would show more positive DC potential changes compared to intake tasks and that under noise both kinds of tasks would show positive DC shifts as an expression of cortical inhibition caused by noise. DC potential shifts during intake and rejection tasks were analyzed at 16 standard locations in 45 persons during irrelevant speech or white noise vs. control condition. Without noise, rejection tasks were associated with more positive DC potential changes compared to intake tasks. During background noise, however, this difference disappeared and both kinds of tasks led to positive DC shifts. Results suggest-besides some limitations-that noise modulates selective attention mechanisms by switching to an environmental information processing and noise rejection mode, which could represent a suggested "attention shift". Implications for fMRI studies as well as for public health in learning and performance environments including susceptible persons are discussed.

  4. Acoustic Noise Alters Selective Attention Processes as Indicated by Direct Current (DC Brain Potential Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karin Trimmel

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Acoustic environmental noise, even of low to moderate intensity, is known to adversely affect information processing in animals and humans via attention mechanisms. In particular, facilitation and inhibition of information processing are basic functions of selective attention. Such mechanisms can be investigated by analyzing brain potentials under conditions of externally directed attention (intake of environmental information versus internally directed attention (rejection of environmental stimuli and focusing on memory/planning processes. This study investigated brain direct current (DC potential shifts—which are discussed to represent different states of cortical activation—of tasks that require intake and rejection of environmental information under noise. It was hypothesized that without background noise rejection tasks would show more positive DC potential changes compared to intake tasks and that under noise both kinds of tasks would show positive DC shifts as an expression of cortical inhibition caused by noise. DC potential shifts during intake and rejection tasks were analyzed at 16 standard locations in 45 persons during irrelevant speech or white noise vs. control condition. Without noise, rejection tasks were associated with more positive DC potential changes compared to intake tasks. During background noise, however, this difference disappeared and both kinds of tasks led to positive DC shifts. Results suggest—besides some limitations—that noise modulates selective attention mechanisms by switching to an environmental information processing and noise rejection mode, which could represent a suggested “attention shift”. Implications for fMRI studies as well as for public health in learning and performance environments including susceptible persons are discussed.

  5. Stratospheric changes caused by geoengineering applications: potential repercussions and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenzelmann, P.; Weisenstein, D.; Peter, T.; Luo, B. P.; Rozanov, E.; Fueglistaler, S.; Thomason, L. W.

    2009-04-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions tend to warm the global climate, calling for significant rapid emission reductions. As potential support measures various ideas for geoengineering are currently being discussed. The assessment of the possible manifold and as yet substantially unexplored repercussions of implementing geoengineering ideas to ameliorate climate change poses enormous challenges not least in the realm of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Sulphur aerosols cool the Earth's surface by reflecting short wave radiation. By increasing the amount of sulphur aerosols in the stratosphere, for example by sulphur dioxide injections, part of the anthropogenic climate warming might be compensated due to enhanced albedo. However, we are only at the beginning of understanding possible side effects. One such effect that such aerosol might have is the warming of the tropical tropopause and consequently the increase of the amount of stratospheric water vapour. Using the 2D AER Aerosol Model we calculated the aerosol distributions for yearly injections of 1, 2, 5 and 10 Mt sulphur into the lower tropical stratosphere. The results serve as input for the 3D chemistry-climate model SOCOL, which allows calculating the aerosol effect on stratospheric temperatures and chemistry. In the injection region the continuously formed sulphuric acid condensates rapidly on sulphate aerosol, which eventually grow to such extent that they sediment down to the tropical tropopause region. The growth of the aerosol particles depends on non-linear processes: the more sulphur is emitted the faster the particles grow. As a consequence for the scenario with continuous sulphur injection of totally 10 Mt per year, only 6 Mt sulphur are in the stratosphere if equilibrium is reached. According to our model calculations this amount of sulphate aerosols leads to a net surface forcing of -3.4 W/m2, which is less then expected radiative forcing by doubling of carbon dioxide concentration. Hence

  6. Creating Effective Dialogue Around Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Communicating climate change to people from diverse sectors of society has proven to be difficult in the United States. It is widely recognized that difficulties arise from a number of sources, including: basic science understanding, the psychologically affect laden content surrounding climate change, and the diversity of value systems that exist in our society. I explore ways of working with the affect that arises around climate change and describe specific methods to work with the resistance often encountered when communicating this important issue. The techniques I describe are rooted in psychology and group process and provide means for creating more effective narratives to break through the barriers to communicating climate change science. Examples are given from personal experiences in presenting climate change to diverse groups.

  7. Effects of Global Change on U.S. Urban Areas: Vulnerabilities, Impacts, and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Kirshen, Paul; Romero-Lankao, Patricia; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruth, Mattias; Solecki, William; Tarr, Joel

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews some of the effects that global change has on urban areas in the United States and how the growth of urban areas will affect the environment. It presents the elements of our Synthesis and Assessment Report (SAP) report that relate to what vulnerabilities and impacts will occur, what adaptation responses may take place, and what possible effects on settlement patterns and characteristics will potentially arise, on human settlements in the U.S. as a result of climate change and climate variability. We will also present some recommendations about what should be done to further research on how climate change and variability will impact human settlements in the U.S., as well as how to engage government officials, policy and decision makers, and the general public in understanding the implications of climate change and variability on the local and regional levels. Additionally, we wish to explore how technology such as remote sensing data coupled with modeling, can be employed as synthesis tools for deriving insight across a spectrum of impacts (e.g. public health, urban planning for mitigation strategies) on how cities can cope and adapt to climate change and variability. This latter point parallels the concepts and ideas presented in the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Decadal Survey report on "Earth Science Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond" wherein the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability, human health, and land use change are listed as key areas for development of future Earth observing remote sensing systems.

  8. Orbital correlation effects. II. Potential curve and ionization potential of boron hydride

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehler, E.L.; Van der Vele, G.A.; Nieuwpoort, W.C.

    1975-01-01

    With the help of the independent pair-potential approximation (IPPA) the valence-shell correlation effects in BH have been calculated at nine internuclear separations. The results are compared with several other methods, including the coupled electron pair approximation (CEPA) and a full configuration interaction expansion. The stability of the IPPA against a unitary transformation of the occupied orbitals has also been investigated, and it is shown that the IPPA is nearly invariant against such transformations. The Dunham procedure has been applied to the results, and the spectroscopic constants obtained from the various approximations are compared. It is furthermore demonstrated that many of the defects present in the Hartree--Fock part of the potential curve and arising from the use of medium-quality basis sets can be eliminated by combining the correlation results with Hartree--Fock results from good-quality basis sets and reapplying the Dunham procedure. Finally the IPPA has been applied to BH + , and the first vertical ionization potential of BH was determined

  9. Superfield approach to calculation of effective potential in supersymmetric field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukhbinder, I.L.; Kuzenko, S.M.; Yarevskaya, Zh.V.

    1993-01-01

    Superfield method of computing effective potential in supersymmetric field theories is suggested. The one-loop effective potential of the Wess-Zumino model is found. The prescription for obtaining multi-loop corrections is described

  10. Reversed Effects of Intermittent Theta Burst Stimulation following Motor Training That Vary as a Function of Training-Induced Changes in Corticospinal Excitability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tino Stöckel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS has the potential to enhance corticospinal excitability (CSE and subsequent motor learning. However, the effects of iTBS following motor learning are unknown. The purpose of the present study was to explore the effect of iTBS on CSE and performance following motor learning. Therefore twenty-four healthy participants practiced a ballistic motor task for a total of 150 movements. iTBS was subsequently applied to the trained motor cortex (STIM group or the vertex (SHAM group. Performance and CSE were assessed before motor learning and before and after iTBS. Training significantly increased performance and CSE in both groups. In STIM group participants, subsequent iTBS significantly reduced motor performance with smaller reductions in CSE. CSE changes as a result of motor learning were negatively correlated with both the CSE changes and performance changes as a result of iTBS. No significant effects of iTBS were found for SHAM group participants. We conclude that iTBS has the potential to degrade prior motor learning as a function of training-induced CSE changes. That means the expected LTP-like effects of iTBS are reversed following motor learning.

  11. Reversed Effects of Intermittent Theta Burst Stimulation following Motor Training That Vary as a Function of Training-Induced Changes in Corticospinal Excitability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckel, Tino; Summers, Jeffery J; Hinder, Mark R

    2015-01-01

    Intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) has the potential to enhance corticospinal excitability (CSE) and subsequent motor learning. However, the effects of iTBS following motor learning are unknown. The purpose of the present study was to explore the effect of iTBS on CSE and performance following motor learning. Therefore twenty-four healthy participants practiced a ballistic motor task for a total of 150 movements. iTBS was subsequently applied to the trained motor cortex (STIM group) or the vertex (SHAM group). Performance and CSE were assessed before motor learning and before and after iTBS. Training significantly increased performance and CSE in both groups. In STIM group participants, subsequent iTBS significantly reduced motor performance with smaller reductions in CSE. CSE changes as a result of motor learning were negatively correlated with both the CSE changes and performance changes as a result of iTBS. No significant effects of iTBS were found for SHAM group participants. We conclude that iTBS has the potential to degrade prior motor learning as a function of training-induced CSE changes. That means the expected LTP-like effects of iTBS are reversed following motor learning.

  12. Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

    2007-12-29

    The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

  13. A computer simulation of a potential derived from the gay-berne potential for lattice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habtamu Zewdie

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The lattice model of elongated molecules interacting via a potential derived from the Gay-Berne pair potential is proposed. We made a systematic study of the effect of varying the molecular elongation and intermolecular vector orientation dependence of the pair potential on the thermodynamic as well as the structural properties of liquid crystals. A Monte Carlo simulations of molecules placed at the site of a simple cubic lattice and interacting via the modified Gay-Berne potential with its nearest neighbours is performed. The internal energy, heat capacity, angular pair correlation function and scalar order parameter are obtained. The results are compared against predictions of molecular field theory, experimental results and that of other related simulations wherever possible. It is shown that for more elongated molecules the nematic-isotropic transition becomes stronger first order transition. For a given molecular elongation as the intermolecular vector orientation dependence becomes larger the nematic-isotropic transition becomes a stronger first order transition as measured by the rate of change of the order parameter and the divergence of the heat capacity. Scaling the potential well seems to have dramatic change on the effect of the potential well anisotropy on trends of nematic-isotropic transition temperature and divergence of the heat capacity. It is shown that the behaviour of many nematics can be described by proposed model with the elongation ratio of molecules and potential well anisotropy ranging from 3 to 5.

  14. Beyond yields: Climate change effects on specialty crop quality and agroecological management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Ahmed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change is impacting the sustainability of food systems through shifts in natural and human dimensions of agroecosystems that influence farmer livelihoods, consumer choices, and food security. This paper highlights the need for climate studies on specialty crops to focus not only on yields, but also on quality, as well as the ability of agroecological management to buffer climate effects on quality parameters. Crop quality refers to phytonutrient and secondary metabolite profiles and associated health and sensory properties that influence consumer buying decisions. Through two literature reviews, we provide examples of specialty crops that are vulnerable to climate effects on quality and examples of climate-resilient agroecological strategies. A range of specialty crops including fruits, vegetables, tree nuts, stimulants, and herbs were identified to respond to climate variables with changes in quality. The review on climate-resilient strategies to mitigate effects on crop quality highlighted a major gap in the literature. However, agricultural diversification emerged as a promising strategy for climate resilience more broadly and highlights the need for future research to assess the potential of diversified agroecosystems to buffer climate effects on crop quality. We integrate the concepts from our literature review within a socio-ecological systems framework that takes into account feedbacks between crop quality, consumer responses, and agroecosystem management. The presented framework is especially useful for two themes in agricultural development and marketing, nutrition-sensitive agriculture and terroir, for informing the design of climate-change resilient specialty crop systems focused on management of quality and other ecosystem services towards promoting environmental and human wellbeing.

  15. New Proxies for Climate change parameters: Foram Culturing and Pteropod Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keul, N.; Schneider, R. R.; Langer, G.; Bijma, J.; Peijnenburg, K. T.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate change is one of the most pressing challenges our society is currently facing and strong efforts are made to simulate future climate conditions. To better validate models that aim at predicting global temperature rise as a consequence of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, accurate atmospheric paleo-CO2 estimates in combination with temperature reconstructions are necessary. Consequently there is a strong need for reliable proxies, allowing reconstruction of climate change. With respect to foraminifera a combination of laboratory experiments and modeling is presented, to show the isolated impact of the different parameters of the carbonate system on trace element composition of their shells. We focus on U/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios, which have recently been established as new proxies reflecting changes in the carbonate system of seawater. While U/Ca correlates with carbonate ion concentration, Sr/Ca is primarily influenced by DIC. The latter is particularly promising since the impact of additional parameters is relatively well constrained and hence, Sr/Ca ratios may allow higher accuracy in carbonate system parameter reconstructions. Furthermore, our results will be discussed on how to advance our knowledge about foraminiferal biomineralization. Pteropods, among the first responders to ocean acidification and warming, are explored as carriers of marine paleoenvironmental signals. In order to characterize the stable isotopic composition of aragonitic pteropod shells and their variation in response to climate change parameters, pteropod shells were collected along a latitudinal transect in the Atlantic Ocean. By comparing shell oxygen isotopic composition to depth changes of the calculated aragonite equilibrium oxygen isotope values, we infer shallow calcification depths for Heliconoides inflatus (75 m), rendering this species a good potential proxy carrier for past variations in surface ocean properties. Furthermore, we demonstrate that indeed, pteropod shells are

  16. Transforming Experience: The Potential of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality for Enhancing Personal and Clinical Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Giuseppe; Baños, Rosa M; Botella, Cristina; Mantovani, Fabrizia; Gaggioli, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    During life, many personal changes occur. These include changing house, school, work, and even friends and partners. However, the daily experience shows clearly that, in some situations, subjects are unable to change even if they want to. The recent advances in psychology and neuroscience are now providing a better view of personal change, the change affecting our assumptive world: (a) the focus of personal change is reducing the distance between self and reality (conflict); (b) this reduction is achieved through (1) an intense focus on the particular experience creating the conflict or (2) an internal or external reorganization of this experience; (c) personal change requires a progression through a series of different stages that however happen in discontinuous and non-linear ways; and (d) clinical psychology is often used to facilitate personal change when subjects are unable to move forward. Starting from these premises, the aim of this paper is to review the potential of virtuality for enhancing the processes of personal and clinical change. First, the paper focuses on the two leading virtual technologies - augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) - exploring their current uses in behavioral health and the outcomes of the 28 available systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Then the paper discusses the added value provided by VR and AR in transforming our external experience by focusing on the high level of personal efficacy and self-reflectiveness generated by their sense of presence and emotional engagement. Finally, it outlines the potential future use of virtuality for transforming our inner experience by structuring, altering, and/or replacing our bodily self-consciousness. The final outcome may be a new generation of transformative experiences that provide knowledge that is epistemically inaccessible to the individual until he or she has that experience, while at the same time transforming the individual's worldview.

  17. Transforming Experience: The Potential of Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality for Enhancing Personal and Clinical Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Riva

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available During our life we undergo many personal changes: we change our house, our school, our work and even our friends and partners. However, our daily experience shows clearly that in some situations subjects are unable to change even if they want to. The recent advances in psychology and neuroscience are now providing a better view of personal change, the change affecting our assumptive world: a the focus of personal change is reducing the distance between self and reality (conflict; b this reduction is achieved through (1 an intense focus on the particular experience creating the conflict or (2 an internal or external reorganization of this experience; c personal change requires a progression through a series of different stages; d clinical psychology is often used to facilitate personal change when subjects are unable to move forward. Starting from these premises, the aim of this paper is to review the potential of virtuality for enhancing the processes of personal and clinical change. First, the paper will focus on the two leading virtual technologies – Augmented Reality (AR and Virtual Reality (VR – exploring their current uses in behavioral health and the outcomes of the 28 available systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Then the paper discusses the added value provided by VR and AR in transforming our external experience, by focusing on the high level of self-reflectiveness and personal efficacy induced by their emotional engagement and sense of presence. Finally, it outlines the potential future use of virtuality for transforming our inner experience by structuring, altering and/or replacing our bodily self-consciousness. The final outcome may be a new generation of transformative experiences that provide knowledge that is epistemically inaccessible to the individual until he or she has that experience, while at the same time transforming the individual’s worldview.

  18. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  19. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.G. Crozier; A.P. Hendry; P.W. Lawson; T.P. Quinn; N.J. Mantua; J. Battin; R.G. Shaw; R.B. Huey

    2008-01-01

    Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (...

  20. More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohland, Jan; Reyers, Mark; Weber, Juliane; Witthaut, Dirk

    2017-11-01

    Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr-1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

  1. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W.

    2006-01-01

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km 2 portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO 2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T a ), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 o C for T a and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

  2. Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

    2006-06-01

    We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

  3. Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

    OpenAIRE

    Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pag?, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by takin...

  4. Maximum potential preventive effect of hip protectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Schoor, N.M.; Smit, J.H.; Bouter, L.M.; Veenings, B.; Asma, G.B.; Lips, P.T.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To estimate the maximum potential preventive effect of hip protectors in older persons living in the community or homes for the elderly. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Emergency departments in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Hip fracture patients aged 70 and older who

  5. Nucleus--nucleus potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaqaman, H.R.

    1977-01-01

    The nucleus--nucleus interaction is studied within the framework of the generator coordinate method that permits an easy incorporation of the full effects of antisymmetrization. It is found that the interaction, as far as the elastic scattering problem is concerned, can be described by a simple effective potential that is equivalent to the original many-body (and hence non-local) problem. The potential is obtained by dividing the wavefunction into a long-range part and a short-range part and requiring the former to satisfy a Schroedinger equation. This enables avoiding dealing with the troublesome short-range part of the wavefunction and provides a direct link with the optical model so that the potential obtained here is equivalent to the real part of the optical potential (the imaginary part is not investigated). The effective potential is found to consist of three parts: an interaction term between the nucleons belonging to different nuclei, a kinetic energy term due to the change in the intrinsic kinetic energy of the system as a result of the antisymmetrization, and finally an l-dependent part. The kinetic energy term is found to be very repulsive and effectively gives a hard core, and is calculated for the α--α and 16 O-- 16 O cases. The full potential is calculated for the α--α case for the S, D, and G partial waves and then used to calculate the corresponding phase shifts that are then compared with experimental results and other microscopic calculations. Finally, some recent results and analyses of fusion and deep inelastic reactions are reviewed that seem to indicate the presence of a hard core in the nucleus--nucleus potential. Such a hard core is present in the potential obtained in the sudden approximation

  6. The Potential and Challenges of Digital Well-Being Interventions: Positive Technology Research and Design in Light of the Bitter-Sweet Ambivalence of Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Diefenbach

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Along with the dissemination of technical assistance in nearly every part of life, there has been growing interest in the potential of technology to support well-being and human flourishing. “Positive technology” thereby takes the responsible role of a “digital coach,” supporting people in achieving personal goals and behavior change. The design of such technology requires knowledge of different disciplines such as psychology, design and human-computer interaction. However, possible synergies are not yet used to full effect, and it needs common frameworks to support a more deliberate design of the “therapeutic interaction” mediated through technology. For positive technology design, positive psychology, and resource oriented approaches appear as particularly promising starting point. Besides a general fit of the basic theoretical conceptions of human change, many elements of established interventions could possibly be transferred to technology design. However, besides the power of focusing on the positive, another psychological aspect to consider are the bitter components inherent to change, such as the confrontation with a negative status quo, threat of self-esteem, and the effort required. The present research discusses the general potential and challenges within positive technology design from an interdisciplinary perspective with theoretical and practical contributions. Based on the bitter-sweet ambivalence of change as present in many psychological approaches of motivation and behavior change, the bitter-sweet continuum serves as a proxy for the mixed emotions and cognitions related to change. An empirical investigation of those factors among 177 users of self-improvement technologies provides initial support for the usefulness of the bitter-sweet perspective in understanding change dynamics. In a next step, the bitter-sweet concept is transformed into different design strategies to support positive change. The present article

  7. The Potential and Challenges of Digital Well-Being Interventions: Positive Technology Research and Design in Light of the Bitter-Sweet Ambivalence of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Along with the dissemination of technical assistance in nearly every part of life, there has been growing interest in the potential of technology to support well-being and human flourishing. "Positive technology" thereby takes the responsible role of a "digital coach," supporting people in achieving personal goals and behavior change. The design of such technology requires knowledge of different disciplines such as psychology, design and human-computer interaction. However, possible synergies are not yet used to full effect, and it needs common frameworks to support a more deliberate design of the "therapeutic interaction" mediated through technology. For positive technology design, positive psychology, and resource oriented approaches appear as particularly promising starting point. Besides a general fit of the basic theoretical conceptions of human change, many elements of established interventions could possibly be transferred to technology design. However, besides the power of focusing on the positive, another psychological aspect to consider are the bitter components inherent to change, such as the confrontation with a negative status quo, threat of self-esteem, and the effort required. The present research discusses the general potential and challenges within positive technology design from an interdisciplinary perspective with theoretical and practical contributions. Based on the bitter-sweet ambivalence of change as present in many psychological approaches of motivation and behavior change, the bitter-sweet continuum serves as a proxy for the mixed emotions and cognitions related to change. An empirical investigation of those factors among 177 users of self-improvement technologies provides initial support for the usefulness of the bitter-sweet perspective in understanding change dynamics. In a next step, the bitter-sweet concept is transformed into different design strategies to support positive change. The present article aims to deepen the discussion

  8. The Potential and Challenges of Digital Well-Being Interventions: Positive Technology Research and Design in Light of the Bitter-Sweet Ambivalence of Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Along with the dissemination of technical assistance in nearly every part of life, there has been growing interest in the potential of technology to support well-being and human flourishing. “Positive technology” thereby takes the responsible role of a “digital coach,” supporting people in achieving personal goals and behavior change. The design of such technology requires knowledge of different disciplines such as psychology, design and human-computer interaction. However, possible synergies are not yet used to full effect, and it needs common frameworks to support a more deliberate design of the “therapeutic interaction” mediated through technology. For positive technology design, positive psychology, and resource oriented approaches appear as particularly promising starting point. Besides a general fit of the basic theoretical conceptions of human change, many elements of established interventions could possibly be transferred to technology design. However, besides the power of focusing on the positive, another psychological aspect to consider are the bitter components inherent to change, such as the confrontation with a negative status quo, threat of self-esteem, and the effort required. The present research discusses the general potential and challenges within positive technology design from an interdisciplinary perspective with theoretical and practical contributions. Based on the bitter-sweet ambivalence of change as present in many psychological approaches of motivation and behavior change, the bitter-sweet continuum serves as a proxy for the mixed emotions and cognitions related to change. An empirical investigation of those factors among 177 users of self-improvement technologies provides initial support for the usefulness of the bitter-sweet perspective in understanding change dynamics. In a next step, the bitter-sweet concept is transformed into different design strategies to support positive change. The present article aims to deepen the

  9. Climate change and the potential effects on maternal and pregnancy outcomes: an assessment of the most vulnerable – the mother, fetus, and newborn child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotta Rylander

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC presented a large amount of evidence about global warming and the impact of human activities on global climate change. The Lancet Commission have identified a number of ways in which climate change can influence human health: lack of food and safe drinking water, poor sanitation, population migration, changing disease patterns and morbidity, more frequent extreme weather events, and lack of shelter. Pregnant women, the developing fetus, and young children are considered the most vulnerable members of our species and are already marginalized in many countries. Therefore, they may have increased sensitivity to the effects of climate change. Published literature in the fields of climate change, human health, tropical diseases, and direct heat exposure were assessed through the regular search engines. This article demonstrates that climate change will increase the risk of infant and maternal mortality, birth complications, and poorer reproductive health, especially in tropical, developing countries. Thus, climate change will have a substantial impact on the health and survival of the next generation among already challenged populations. There is limited knowledge regarding which regions will be most heavily affected. Research efforts are therefore required to identify the most vulnerable populations, fill knowledge gaps, and coordinate efforts to reduce negative health consequences. The effects of malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental problems, and direct heat exposure on maternal health outcomes will lead to severe health risks for mothers and children. Increased focus on antenatal care is recommended to prevent worsening maternal health and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Interventions to reduce the negative health impacts caused by climate change are also crucial. Every effort should be made to develop and maintain good antenatal care during extreme life conditions as a

  10. Effects of flow changes on radiotracer binding: Simultaneous measurement of neuroreceptor binding and cerebral blood flow modulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Christin Y; Mandeville, Joseph B; Wey, Hsiao-Ying; Catana, Ciprian; Hooker, Jacob M; Rosen, Bruce R

    2017-01-01

    The potential effects of changes in blood flow on the delivery and washout of radiotracers has been an ongoing question in PET bolus injection studies. This study provides practical insight into this topic by experimentally measuring cerebral blood flow (CBF) and neuroreceptor binding using simultaneous PET/MRI. Hypercapnic challenges (7% CO 2 ) were administered to non-human primates in order to induce controlled increases in CBF, measured with pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling. Simultaneously, dopamine D 2 /D 3 receptor binding of [ 11 C]raclopride or [ 18 F]fallypride was monitored with dynamic PET. Experiments showed that neither time activity curves nor quantification of binding through binding potentials ( BP ND ) were measurably affected by CBF increases, which were larger than two-fold. Simulations of experimental procedures showed that even large changes in CBF should have little effect on the time activity curves of radiotracers, given a set of realistic assumptions. The proposed method can be applied to experimentally assess the flow sensitivity of other radiotracers. Results demonstrate that CBF changes, which often occur due to behavioral tasks or pharmacological challenges, do not affect PET [ 11 C]raclopride or [ 18 F]fallypride binding studies and their quantification. The results from this study suggest flow effects may have limited impact on many PET neuroreceptor tracers with similar properties.

  11. Estimating the Cumulative Ecological Effect of Local Scale Landscape Changes in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Dianna M.; Labiosa, William; Pearlstine, Leonard; Hallac, David; Strong, David; Hearn, Paul; Bernknopf, Richard

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem restoration in south Florida is a state and national priority centered on the Everglades wetlands. However, urban development pressures affect the restoration potential and remaining habitat functions of the natural undeveloped areas. Land use (LU) planning often focuses at the local level, but a better understanding of the cumulative effects of small projects at the landscape level is needed to support ecosystem restoration and preservation. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SFL EPM) is a regional LU planning tool developed to help stakeholders visualize LU scenario evaluation and improve communication about regional effects of LU decisions. One component of the SFL EPM is ecological value (EV), which is evaluated through modeled ecological criteria related to ecosystem services using metrics for (1) biodiversity potential, (2) threatened and endangered species, (3) rare and unique habitats, (4) landscape pattern and fragmentation, (5) water quality buffer potential, and (6) ecological restoration potential. In this article, we demonstrate the calculation of EV using two case studies: (1) assessing altered EV in the Biscayne Gateway area by comparing 2004 LU to potential LU in 2025 and 2050, and (2) the cumulative impact of adding limestone mines south of Miami. Our analyses spatially convey changing regional EV resulting from conversion of local natural and agricultural areas to urban, industrial, or extractive use. Different simulated local LU scenarios may result in different alterations in calculated regional EV. These case studies demonstrate methods that may facilitate evaluation of potential future LU patterns and incorporate EV into decision making.

  12. Climate change effects on central New Mexico's land use, transportation system and key natural resources : task 1.1 memo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    This report summarizes potential climate change effects on the availability of water, land use, transportation infrastructure, and key natural resources in central New Mexico. This work is being done as part of the Interagency Transportation, Land Us...

  13. Effect of Spatial Dimension and External Potential on Joule-Thomson Coefficients of Ideal Bose Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Duqi; Wang Canjun

    2010-01-01

    Based on the form of the n-dimensional generic power-law potential, the state equation and the heat capacity, the analytical expressions of the Joule-Thomson coefficient (JTC) for an ideal Bose gas are derived in n-dimensional potential. The effect of the spatial dimension and the external potential on the JTC are discussed, respectively. These results show that: (i) For the free ideal Bose gas, when n/s ≤ 2 (n is the spatial dimension, s is the momentum index in the relation between the energy and the momentum), and T → T C (T C is the critical temperature), the JTC can obviously improve by means of changing the throttle valve's shape and decreasing the spatial dimension of gases. (ii) For the inhomogeneous external potential, the discriminant Δ = [1 - Π[ n i=1 (kT/varpi i ) 1/t i Γ(1/t i + 1)] (k is the Boltzmann Constant, T is the thermodynamic temperature, varpi i is the external field's energy), is obtained. The potential makes the JTC increase when Δ > 0, on the contrary, it makes the JTC decrease when Δ i < 1. (general)

  14. Greenhouse gases reduction potential through consumer’s behavioral changes in terms of food-related product selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Naoki; Fujiwara, Natsumi; Nagata, Junko; Amano, Koji

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction potential by shopping behavior change is analyzed. • Four scenarios related to food consumption is evaluated using life cycle assessment. • Total GHG reduction potential by four scenarios in Japan is 1367 kt-CO_2/year. • Potential reduces to 45% when considering feasible ratio of taking behavior change. • Contribution of seasonal production/consumption scenario is highest among scenarios. - Abstract: Sustainable consumption plays an important role in the mitigation of global warming and the conservation of energy. Promoting more environmentally responsible consumer behavior, especially through open communication between stakeholders, is one way to achieve low-carbon consumption. This study evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through behavioral transformation of consumers in terms of their daily shopping habits. In this context, the behavioral transformative actions pertain to certain foods and daily necessities, and are analyzed from a life cycle assessment perspective. We developed multiple product-selection scenarios to evaluate GHG emissions related to the daily purchase of commodities. Based on the life cycle assessment, we estimated the GHG emissions that result from the production and distribution of these commodities, pertaining to both the current product selection and to a possibly improved selection. The results of our study show that because of seasonal consumption patterns and energy conversion, there is a substantial potential to reduce GHG emissions resulting from out-of-season produce cultivation. The GHG reduction potential is not high for each individual commodity because diverse commodities are needed on a daily basis. However, various actions in combination could have substantial potential for reducing emissions.

  15. Scoping studies on the effect of quaternary climate change on the hydrogeology in the Sellafield potential repository zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heathcote, J.A. [Entec UK Ltd., Shrewsbury (United Kingdom)

    1997-04-01

    The present investigations in the vicinity of the Sellafield potential repository zone have provided data on groundwater pressure and salinity to a depth of some 2000 m, for a section extending from the hills to the east of the zone, to the coast. As part of the process of demonstrating the suitability of the site for a deep repository, work has been undertaken to reconcile these observations of pressure and salinity with an understanding of the hydrogeology of the site. It is considered possible that the long glacial history of the site may in part be responsible for present observations. This work documents some preliminary studies to determine the possible magnitude of such glacial effects. 4 refs, 2 figs.

  16. Scoping studies on the effect of quaternary climate change on the hydrogeology in the Sellafield potential repository zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heathcote, J.A.

    1997-01-01

    The present investigations in the vicinity of the Sellafield potential repository zone have provided data on groundwater pressure and salinity to a depth of some 2000 m, for a section extending from the hills to the east of the zone, to the coast. As part of the process of demonstrating the suitability of the site for a deep repository, work has been undertaken to reconcile these observations of pressure and salinity with an understanding of the hydrogeology of the site. It is considered possible that the long glacial history of the site may in part be responsible for present observations. This work documents some preliminary studies to determine the possible magnitude of such glacial effects. 4 refs, 2 figs

  17. Nonlinear absorption coefficient and relative refraction index change for an asymmetrical double δ-doped quantum well in GaAs with a Schottky barrier potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas-Briseño, J.G.; Martínez-Orozco, J.C.; Rodríguez-Vargas, I.; Mora-Ramos, M.E.; Duque, C.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this work we are reporting the energy level spectrum for a quantum system consisting of an n-type double δ-doped quantum well with a Schottky barrier potential in a Gallium Arsenide matrix. The calculated states are taken as the basis for the evaluation of the linear and third-order nonlinear contributions to the optical absorption coefficient and to the relative refractive index change, making particular use of the asymmetry of the potential profile. These optical properties are then reported as a function of the Schottky barrier height (SBH) and the separation distance between the δ-doped quantum wells. Also, the effects of the application of hydrostatic pressure are studied. The results show that the amplitudes of the resonant peaks are of the same order of magnitude of those obtained in the case of single δ-doped field effect transistors; but tailoring the asymmetry of the confining potential profile allows the control the resonant peak positions

  18. Nonlinear absorption coefficient and relative refraction index change for an asymmetrical double δ-doped quantum well in GaAs with a Schottky barrier potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rojas-Briseño, J.G.; Martínez-Orozco, J.C.; Rodríguez-Vargas, I. [Unidad Académica de Física, Universidad Autónoma de Zacatecas, Calzada Solidaridad esquina con Paseo la Bufa S/N, C.P. 98060, Zacatecas, Zac. (Mexico); Mora-Ramos, M.E. [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos, Av. Universidad 1001, CP 62209, Cuernavaca, Morelos (Mexico); Instituto de Física, Universidad de Antioquia, AA 1226, Medellín (Colombia); Duque, C.A., E-mail: cduque@fisica.udea.edu.co [Instituto de Física, Universidad de Antioquia, AA 1226, Medellín (Colombia)

    2013-09-01

    In this work we are reporting the energy level spectrum for a quantum system consisting of an n-type double δ-doped quantum well with a Schottky barrier potential in a Gallium Arsenide matrix. The calculated states are taken as the basis for the evaluation of the linear and third-order nonlinear contributions to the optical absorption coefficient and to the relative refractive index change, making particular use of the asymmetry of the potential profile. These optical properties are then reported as a function of the Schottky barrier height (SBH) and the separation distance between the δ-doped quantum wells. Also, the effects of the application of hydrostatic pressure are studied. The results show that the amplitudes of the resonant peaks are of the same order of magnitude of those obtained in the case of single δ-doped field effect transistors; but tailoring the asymmetry of the confining potential profile allows the control the resonant peak positions.

  19. Proprioceptive evoked potentials in man: cerebral responses to changing weight loads on the hand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnfred, S; He, Chen; Eder, D

    2000-01-01

    We studied cerebral evoked potentials on the scalp to the stimulation of the right hand from a change in weight of 400-480 g in ten subjects. Rise-time was 20g/10 ms, Inter Stimulus Interval 2s and stimulus duration was 100 ms. The cerebral activations were a double positive contralateral C3'/P70...

  20. Physiological Changes to the Cardiovascular System at High Altitude and Its Effects on Cardiovascular Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Callum James; Gavin, Matthew

    2017-06-01

    Riley, Callum James, and Matthew Gavin. Physiological changes to the cardiovascular system at high altitude and its effects on cardiovascular disease. High Alt Med Biol. 18:102-113, 2017.-The physiological changes to the cardiovascular system in response to the high altitude environment are well understood. More recently, we have begun to understand how these changes may affect and cause detriment to cardiovascular disease. In addition to this, the increasing availability of altitude simulation has dramatically improved our understanding of the physiology of high altitude. This has allowed further study on the effect of altitude in those with cardiovascular disease in a safe and controlled environment as well as in healthy individuals. Using a thorough PubMed search, this review aims to integrate recent advances in cardiovascular physiology at altitude with previous understanding, as well as its potential implications on cardiovascular disease. Altogether, it was found that the changes at altitude to cardiovascular physiology are profound enough to have a noteworthy effect on many forms of cardiovascular disease. While often asymptomatic, there is some risk in high altitude exposure for individuals with certain cardiovascular diseases. Although controlled research in patients with cardiovascular disease was largely lacking, meaning firm conclusions cannot be drawn, these risks should be a consideration to both the individual and their physician.