Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warren Pearce

Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Enhancing the contribution and role of practitioner knowledge in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Working Group (WG II process: Insights from UK workshops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Candice Howarth

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This perspective critically assesses how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC could facilitate a closer alignment of its activities and include lessons drawn from the policy and decision-making communities working on the ground at the regional/local levels. The objective is to facilitate practitioner input into the detailed choice of topics and priorities for IPCC review and in the conclusions drawn (we define practitioners as those engaged in the development and application of practical responses to climate change on the ground. By means of a series of workshops with academics, policy officials and decision-makers in the United Kingdom, the research reported here illuminates how the IPCC’s Working Group II (WGII has been used in the past to inform decision-making and how practitioner responses to climate change could better inform the IPCC process in the future. In particular, we recommend three key actions. Firstly that IPCC WGII should incorporate more practitioners as authors to improve the awareness and understanding amongst the writing teams of the nature and detail of decisions being made in response to climate change; secondly a practitioner-led IPCC Special Report should be commissioned on good-practice responses to climate change; and thirdly a new body should be created, attached to the IPCC, to synthesise and report on good practice on climate response strategies in a timely manner. By adopting these recommendations, the IPCC could become more directly useful to decision-makers working on adaptation at the national, regional and local levels and enable more actionable decision-making.

Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change. Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klein, R.J.T.; Nicholls, R.J.; Mimura, Nobuo

1999-01-01

This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual, and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the 'technical' options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adaptation framework involving four steps is suggested, including (1) information collection and awareness raising; (2) planning and design; (3) implementation, and (4) monitoring and evaluation. The incomplete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject. 46 refs

Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

2016-03-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

Science.gov (United States)

Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

2007-01-01

This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

Tracking climate change. The IPCC in Four Questions. The Hidden Face of Climate Research. Climate Change: Facts and Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

2014-01-01

Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

More carbon dioxide is a result of climatic change, not a cause. Independent scientists correct KNMI and IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voortman, A.J.

2004-01-01

Attention is paid to opponents of the carbon dioxide hypothesis, supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC), in which it is stated that climatic change is caused by an increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere [nl

Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2009-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

The IPCC fights back and wins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

1996-07-01

Controversy surrounding the ``Science of Climate Change 1995`` report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 is discussed. The final version of chapter 8 of the report was not identical to the chapter 8 which was analysed by the Working Group 1 at their meeting in Madrid in November 1995. The published document led to the conclusion that ``the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate``. However, it seemed to have missed out statements in the report as presented at Madrid that suggested some caution amongst the panel of experts over this conclusion. This has been taken by the industry lobby group, the Global Climate Coalition, and others to indicate an attempt by the IPCC to give greater weight than actually exists to the agreement between scientists that human activities are indeed causing global warming. The IPCC have countered these charges by pointing out that a draft report was circulated for the Madrid meeting and that the subsequent final version was modified in accordance with guidance received at the meeting. The World Energy Council`s analysis of the report suggests that far from painting too pessimistic a picture it is, if anything, too optimistic and should have been more aggressive in proposing solutions. (UK)

Climate change at global and regional scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.; Royer, J.F.

2008-01-01

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. century. In this paper we present the results of the two french climate models, from CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z.

2007-01-01

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO 2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Hodges, Andrew; Wicks, Santhi; Kokic, Phil; Nelson, Rohan

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maeder, Claudia

2009-12-19

The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

Climate experts. The IPCC in Four Questions. Behind-the-scene of Climate Research. Climate Change: evidences and Uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beriot, Nicolas; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Braconnot, Pascale; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Le Treut, Herve; Pachauri, Rajendra; Cazenave, Anny; Planton, Serge; Feral, Jean-Pierre

2013-01-01

Scientists and government delegations from around the world gathered in Stockholm (Sweden) in September 2013 to approve the first volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This document reviews existing scientific knowledge on the Earth's climate. How was it prepared? How do scientists conduct research on climate change? What do they know for certain? What remains to be discovered?

Noaa contributions to the 1995 IPCC assessments: A summary of the current and future activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albritton, D.; Levy, J.

1993-05-01

Contents: introduction -the IPCC and NOAA; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 science assessment; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessment; NOAA contributions to the 1995 IPCC economics and greenhouse-gas scenario assessment

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.

2016-01-01

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

The energy policy relevance of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report on the macro-economics of mitigating climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, Richard A.; Guenther, Edeltraud

2016-01-01

Research which attempted to determine the macroeconomic importance of mitigating climate change through 2100 was presented primarily in Chapter 6 of the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. Some of the findings of this chapter were then summarized in the Summary for Policy Makers (SPMs) of both the Synthesis Report, and the WGIII report. Unfortunately, these SPMs omitted key aspects of what the overall macroeconomic results for the costs and benefits of mitigating climate change actually did and did not include, how they were produced, and a careful assessment of their uncertainty and scientific validity. Yet, many of the major omissions were acknowledged deep in the text of Chapter 6, but were not revealed to the public. We conclude, therefore, that neither of these SPMs was useful for energy policy makers and energy managers, and they were misleading due to their many key omissions. Finally, we recommend several improvements that can be made to integrated assessment modeling methodologies so that the macroeconomic analysis of mitigating climate change resulting from the use of such models can be more relevant and useful to energy policy makers in the future, and can be communicated to them better. - Highlights: •The 2014 IPCC Working Group III Report has major omissions in its economic analysis. •Many well-known benefits of mitigation are not included in its economic results. •The Summary for Policy Makers is not very useful for energy policy decision makers. •The upcoming Sixth IPCC WGIII analysis should be structured quite differently.

Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

2014-12-01

Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Couwenberg

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

Science.gov (United States)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

2009-01-01

The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

Finding facts for policy makers. IPCC's Special Reports and the Third Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leemans, R.; Verbeek, K.

2000-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an international body of the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) and UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) that publishes authoritative reports on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change and climate policy. The knowledge contained in the IPCC reports forms the basis for the development of global climate policy by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The three volumes of the Third Assessment Report will be published early in 2001, shortly after Cop6 (Sixth Convention of Parties, The Hague, Netherlands, November 2000). This broadly supported summary of scientific insights will be important for the further substantiation of climate policy

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

Science.gov (United States)

Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

IPCC SRES revisited: a response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gruebler, A.; Gaffin, S.

2003-01-01

This article gives details of the response to the criticism of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and of some aspects of IPCC assessments. The criticism claims that market exchange rates (MER) were used instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) and that scenarios using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in developing regions were flawed. Points raised in the response included that scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER, that the IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, and that long-term emissions are based on more than just economic growth

Arctic Climate and Climate Change with a Focus on Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stendel, Martin; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Petersen, Dorthe

2008-01-01

Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that the Arctic presently is warmer than during the last 125,000 years, and it is very likely11The term "likelihood" is used here as in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). According to the definition in this rep...... Ice Sheet, the fate of arctic sea ice and a possible weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC) under future warming conditions have led to increased research activities, including an assessment of arctic climate and climate change (ACIA, 2005), the fourth assessment report (AR4...

Climate Change Mitigation in a Sustainable World - Findings of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sims, R. E. H.

2007-01-01

The 4th Assessment Report on climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has recently been completed. The fi rst report in the IPCC 4th Assessment series by Working Group I outlined the latest knowledge on Climate Science. The second by Working Group 2 covered the possibilities for Adaptation of ecosystems, glaciers preceding, sea level rising, droughts etc in various regions. This paper is based on the findings of Working Group III as presented in the recently published report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. The 27 paragraph Summary for Policy Makers was approved sentence by sentence over 4 days in May 2007 by 120 government delegations in Bangkok, Thailand. The three short Summaries for Policy Makers (SPM), Synthesis report, and the three full reports can be found at www.ipcc.ch. In addition the short Synthesis Report across all three working groups is soon to be released. The report on Mitigation attempted to compile the latest scientific knowledge relating to low-carbon emitting technologies; assessed their costs and potentials for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission avoidance; evaluated their long term prospects out to 2100 for stabilising atmospheric GHGs; provided a detailed list of policy options; and discussed the opportunities for sustainable development and equity linked with GHG abatement. Over the 3 year writing and review process, the author of this paper was the co-ordinating lead author of the writing team for the Working Group III chapter on Energy Supply. Of the 13 chapters, this one received the greatest attention with over 5000 review comments that were each responded to, and with the sections on nuclear and renewable energy receiving a major share of them. Since the 3rd Assessment Report (TAR) was published in 2001, the over-arching message now being delivered by Working Group III is a stronger but positive one: Action is required. The situation is urgent - but not beyond repair. Many energy

Science-policy interaction in the global greenhouse. Institutional design and institutional performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skodvin, Tora

1999-08-01

This paper explores the science-policy interaction and the extent to which and how institutional arrangements may be used as instruments for enhancing the effectiveness of the dialog. The first part develops the theory. The point of departure of the analysis is the internal dynamics of science and politics in their pure forms and the nature of the dynamics that are generated when these two distinct systems of behaviour meet. On this basis, then, the question of which functions the institutional apparatus should be able to serve in order to enhance the effectiveness of science-policy dialogue is addressed. This approach is then applied to an empirical case study of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988 to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. 53 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Academies of science supports the IPCC; Vitenskapsakademier stoetter FNs klimapanel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seip, Hans Martin

2011-07-01

In 2010, a number of science academies considered how serious climate change is and what should be done. The main conclusions are highly coherent and in line with the IPCC. The effects of climate change will include: rise in sea level, health - because of large variations in temperature; ocean acidification, biological systems will change and the economic skewed distribution in the world will increase - the poor getting poorer. (AG)

The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wehner, Michael

2005-01-01

SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2009-07-01

In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

OpenAIRE

Lisa V. Alexander

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had ch...

Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubuis, E.

2010-01-01

The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet

Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

2014-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangzheng Deng

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

A Carbon Cycle Science Update Since IPCC AR-4

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolman, A.J.; Werf, van der G.R.; Molen, van der M.K.; Ganssen, G.; Erisman, J.W.; Strengers, B.

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

OpenAIRE

B. Cook; N. Zeng; J.-H. Yoon

2010-01-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest...

Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 - Effekter, klimatilpasning og sårbarhed

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Grindsted, Aslak

. Med afsæt i denne delrapport er der udarbejdet en dansk analyse, der nærmere beskriver effekterne af et ændret klima i Danmark suppleret med den seneste danske forskning udført af det danske Center for Regional Changes in the Earth System (CRES). ”Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 – Effekter...

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

OpenAIRE

Candice Howarth; James Painter

2016-01-01

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of\\ud how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research\\ud reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific\\ud advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from\\ud interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners\\ud and local decision makers are present...

Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1 consists of six global and regional greenhouse...

A comparative analysis of methodology for inventory of greenhouse gases emissions - IPCC and CORINAIR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasilev, Kh.

1998-01-01

The inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) is performed by two accepted methods - CORINAIR (of EU) and IPCC (of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes). The first one is applied only in European countries, the second is conformable to GHG emissions from all over the world. The versions IPCC-95 and CORINAIR94 are compared from theoretical and methodological point of view. In Bulgaria the version CORINAIR95 is not applied yet and the inventory analysis for 1994 uses CORINAIR90. The emissions of main GHG and gases-precursors are compared. The main elements of inventory are analyzed. The values recommended by CORINAIR94 are taken into account. A table for accordance between the two methods is used. The differences concerning transport vehicles are taken into account also. Differences between the two methods are noticed in the following directions: nomenclature of the activities emitting GHG; organization of the inventory guides; kind of the activities and technologies included. The qualitative comparison are done for energy sector and for industry separately. The results show too big differences in the volume of the emitted GHG and the reasons could be classified as methodological ones and differences in the kind and values of the emission coefficients. For their determining standard values for Eastern Europe from IPCC guide have been applied as well as data from experimental investigations. Respectively, in the method CORINAIR emission coefficients CORINAIR90 are used. The differences between the emission coefficients determined in the two methods are as big as twice or even more for CO at solid fuels, i.g. at energy production; as big as three times at NO x and up to twenty times at methane also at solid fuels. The two methods do not read the emissions of gases-precursors at some industrial processes. This disadvantage is overcome at IPCC96 and it is necessary to complement the emission coefficients in the data base, especially for gases-precursors regarding the

Twitter Campaigns Around the Fifth IPCC Report: Campaign Spreading, Shared Hashtags, and Separate Communities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmberg, K.; Hellsten, I.

2016-01-01

In this article, we analyzed campaigning on Twitter around the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 report in September, 2013. In particular, we analyzed how participation in a specific campaign and use of hashtags connected to the campaign

Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbruggen, Aviel; Laes, Erik

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

A brief history of adaptation: conceptual evolution across the IPCC reports (1990-2014)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonet, Guillaume

2015-01-01

In the past decade, work on the concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation became central in climate change literature. At the same time a growing number of studies have focussed on the influence of cognitive factors on decision-making processes, such as interpreting elusive concepts such as adaptation. Comprehension of adaptation has evolved considerably since its recognition as a response to climate change in the 90's by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently protecting systems from weather events (the 'adjustment adaptation' approach) is still the prevailing view in climate policies. Nevertheless, a shift toward a 'transformation adaptation' approach is being observed. This position would take better account of the complexity of existing systems and allow reexamining their mechanisms (institutional, technical, financial). This paper aims to analyze conceptual advances on adaptation across the five IPCC reports from 1990 to 2014. This contribution attempts to show that the prominence given to adaptation in the latest report (2014) reflects the cognitive difficulty of conceiving this concept, responds to the growing demand to facilitate its operationalization and confirms its relevance for a better understanding of the underlying complexity of climate change and the global environmental change issue. Pursuing reflection on the adaptation concept should certainly contribute to the emergence of a promising and interdisciplinary field of research

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2005-07-01

The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2009-03-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barker, T; Bashmakov, I; Bernstein, L; Bogner, J; Bosch, P; Dave, R; Davidson, O; Fisher, B; Grubb, M; Gupta, S; Halsnaes, K; Heij, B; Kahn Ribeiro, S; Kobayashi, S; Levine, M; Martino, D; Masera Cerutti, O; Metz, B; Meyer, L; Nabuurs, G J; Najam, A; Nakicenovic, N; Holger Rogner, H; Roy, J; Sathaye, J; Schock, R; Shukla, P; Sims, R; Smith, P; Swart, R; Tirpak, D; Urge-Vorsatz, D; Dadi, Z

2007-07-01

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z

2007-07-01

The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

IPCC workshop on impacts of ocean acidification on marine biology and ecosystems. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Dahe, Q.; Mach, K.J.; Plattner, G.-K.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Tignor, M.; Ebi, K.L.

2011-09-15

Understanding the effects of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations on ocean chemistry, commonly termed ocean acidification, as well as associated impacts on marine biology and ecosystems, is an important component of scientific knowledge about global change. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will include comprehensive coverage of ocean acidification and its impacts, including potential feedbacks to the climate system. To support ongoing AR5 assessment efforts, Working Group II and Working Group I (WGII and WGI) of the IPCC held a joint Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems in Okinawa, Japan, from 17 to 19 January 2011. The workshop convened experts from the scientific community, including WGII and WGI AR5 authors and review editors, to synthesise scientific understanding of changes in ocean chemistry due to increased CO{sub 2} and of impacts of this changing chemistry on marine organisms, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. This workshop report summarises the scientific content and perspectives presented and discussed during the workshop. It provides syntheses of these perspectives for the workshop's core topics: (i) the changing chemistry of the oceans, (ii) impacts of ocean acidification for individual organisms, and (iii) scaling up responses from individual organisms to ecosystems. It also presents summaries of workshop discussions of key cross-cutting themes, ranging from detection and attribution of ocean acidification and its impacts to understanding ocean acidification in the context of other stressors on marine systems. Additionally, the workshop report includes extended abstracts for keynote and poster presentations at the workshop. (Author)

An inventory of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the UK using the IPCC methodology: emission estimate, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, L.; Armstrong Brown, S.; Jarvis, S. C.; Syed, B.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Phillips, V. R.; Sneath, R. W.; Pain, B. F.

Nitrous oxide emission from UK agriculture was estimated, using the IPCC default values of all emission factors and parameters, to be 87 Gg N 2O-N in both 1990 and 1995. This estimate was shown, however, to have an overall uncertainty of 62%. The largest component of the emission (54%) was from the direct (soil) sector. Two of the three emission factors applied within the soil sector, EF1 (direct emission from soil) and EF3 PRP (emission from pasture range and paddock) were amongst the most influential on the total estimate, producing a ±31 and +11% to -17% change in emissions, respectively, when varied through the IPCC range from the default value. The indirect sector (from leached N and deposited ammonia) contributed 29% of the total emission, and had the largest uncertainty (126%). The factors determining the fraction of N leached (Frac LEACH) and emissions from it (EF5), were the two most influential. These parameters are poorly specified and there is great potential to improve the emission estimate for this component. Use of mathematical models (NCYCLE and SUNDIAL) to predict Frac LEACH suggested that the IPCC default value for this parameter may be too high for most situations in the UK. Comparison with other UK-derived inventories suggests that the IPCC methodology may overestimate emission. Although the IPCC approach includes additional components to the other inventories (most notably emission from indirect sources), estimates for the common components (i.e. fertiliser and animals), and emission factors used, are higher than those of other inventories. Whilst it is recognised that the IPCC approach is generalised in order to allow widespread applicability, sufficient data are available to specify at least two of the most influential parameters, i.e. EF1 and Frac LEACH, more accurately, and so provide an improved estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from UK agriculture.

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

Science.gov (United States)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change

ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MIKA J.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

2012-09-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

CO2 emission accounting for the non-energy use of fossil fuels in Italy. A comparison between NEAT model and the IPCC approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motta, S. La; Santino, D.; Ancona, P.; Weiss, M.

2005-01-01

In this article, we apply the Non-energy Use Emission Accounting Tables (NEAT) model as an independent mass balance approach to Italy in order to estimate total non-energy use and related CO 2 emissions for the year 1990 and the period 1995-1997. The model results are compared with official data according to the IPCC Reference Approach (IPCC-RA) and the IPCC Sectoral Approach (IPCC-SA) of the Italian National Inventory Report. The NEAT results for total non-energy use range between 25.0 and 27.6Mt CO 2 equivalents and are therefore clearly below the values used in the IPCC-RA (31.3-32.8Mt CO 2 equivalents). Our research revealed inconsistencies in the IPCC-RA regarding feedstock consumption (1) of steam crackers in 1990 and (2) for ammonia production in the period of 1995-1997. The CO 2 emissions as determined with NEAT correspond well with official IPCC-SA values for most individual industrial processes. However, the total industrial process emissions are underestimated in the IPCC-SA because CO 2 released from methanol and carbon black production is not taken into account. Moreover, we calculate with NEAT 14-61% higher CO 2 emissions from 'solvent and other product use' than the IPCC-SA. These deviations are caused to some extent by the fact that the IPCC-SA does not account for CO 2 emissions from the consumption of lubricants. In total, we therefore conclude that emissions from the non-energy use of fossil fuels are currently underestimated in the IPCC-SA. Further research is recommended (1) to improve the general accuracy of emission estimates for 'solvent and other product use' in the IPCC-SA and (2) to introduce a definition for non-energy use, which allocates feedstock consumption consistently to either energy use or non-energy use in the IPCC-SA and the IPCC-RA of the Italian National Inventory Report

78 FR 19801 - 2013 Revisions to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule and Proposed Confidentiality Determinations...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-02

... steel mills, steel companies, sinter plants, blast furnaces, basic oxygen process furnace shops. Lead...\\ IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis...

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luo Y.

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

Simulation of recent and future climates using CNRM and IPSL models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Musat, I.; Salas y Melia, D.; Tyteca, S.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Gueremy, J.F.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S.; Royer, J.F.; Voldoire, A.; Denvil, S.; Cadule, P.; Foujols, M.A.; Arzel, O.; Fichefet, T.; Krinner, G.; Levy, C.; Madec, G.

2006-01-01

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. centuries. In this paper we present the results of the two French climate models, CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

Simulation of recent and future climates using CNRM and IPSL models; Simulation du climat recent et futur par les modeles du CNRM et de l'IPSL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Musat, I. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-IPSL), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Salas y Melia, D.; Tyteca, S.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Gueremy, J.F.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S.; Royer, J.F.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo France Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Denvil, S.; Cadule, P.; Foujols, M.A. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Arzel, O.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Marti, O.; Swingedouw, D. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Domaine du CNRS, 91 - Gif Sur Yvette (France); Krinner, G. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Grenoble I, Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), CNRS, 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Levy, C.; Madec, G. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. d' Oceanographie et Climat (Locean-IPLS), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France)

2006-11-15

In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. centuries. In this paper we present the results of the two French climate models, CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

The emerging fourth sector

OpenAIRE

Friis, Andreas

2009-01-01

The Fourth Sector is a new phenomenon related to dual social and financial value creation, until now not clearly defined with crisp sectoral boundaries and an operationalized definition. The phenomenon is getting increased attention in media, conferences, business schools and by organizations all over the world, and this study intends to explain the macroenvironmental changes that led to the rise of the fourth sector, describe new trends of social value creation in the private ...

Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts; Sale temps pour le GIEC: Du prix Nobel aux affaires, grandeur et decadence des experts du climat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dubuis, E.

2010-07-01

The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

Progress report: The Energy and Industry Subgroup of IPCC Working Group III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yokobori, Keiichi

1990-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in November 1988 under the joint auspices of UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Working Group III, or the Response Strategies Working Group (RSWG), was established to formulate strategies to respond to challenges arising from global climate warming. The Energy and Industry Subgroup (EIS) was created by the RSWG at its meeting in January-February 1989 to facilitate the formulation of strategies to control, i.e. prevent or reduce, the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CFCs, NO 2 , CH, etc. The following article gives a brief summary of EIS activities, based mainly on records of discussion at the relevant meetings. (author). 1 tab

Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan; Foster, Grant; Cazenave, Anny

2012-01-01

We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low. (letter)

Economic and policy issues in climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nordhaus, W.D.

1998-01-01

Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

Variation in carbon stocks on different slope aspects in seven major ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth assessment report has strongly recommended to ... environment of different aspects of hill slopes is influenced by the intensity and .... few natural disturbances, viz. cloud burst, landslides and wind fall were ...

Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

2015-04-01

We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

Utilization of Agro-meteorological Services among Arable Crop ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Thomas Kehinde Adesina

The study assessed arable crop farmers' utilization of agro-meteorological services in ... The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC's Fourth ... the patterns of impact of climate change on agriculture can be classified into ... temperature rise causing fish to inhabit in different ranges. ..... Journal of Human Ecology.

Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

Science.gov (United States)

Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerin, E.; Colombier, M

2009-07-01

With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation

Developed Countries 2020 Pledges Fall Short of IPCC Target What can we do

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guerin, E.; Colombier, M.

2009-01-01

With the recent announcement by President Obama of the US emission reduction target, the map of developed countries pledges is now full. The US will come to Copenhagen with a -17% target in 2020 compared to 2005 levels that translates into a -4% compared to 1990 levels (together with a -42% target in 2030 that translates into a -33% compared to 1990. Some countries have put forward multiple pledges. They will only commit to the highest pledge if the Copenhagen agreement is deemed satisfactory. For example, the European Union (EU) stated it would move from -20% (the lower pledge) to -30% (the higher pledge) in 2020 compared to 1990 levels if developed countries undertake comparable emission cuts and if major developing countries undertake adequate mitigation actions. Countries also choose different base years in quantifying their pledges. These mitigation pledges by developed countries result in aggregate emissions of -14 to -19% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, which fall well below the range established by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). According to the IPCC, developed countries need to reduce their emissions by -25 to -40% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels to have approximately a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 deg. C above pre-industrial levels. It should be noted that some targets presented here (such as EU and US pledges) account for international offsets. To be consistent with IPCC figures, this fraction of expected reductions should not be accounted for. Only the domestic component should be considered. But as specified now, certain pledges are expected to fall further below target. For example, the EU's -20% target translates into -15%, with offsets excluded. This is quite problematic. First, from a climate point of view: developed countries are not making the emission reduction commitments necessary for stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change. Second, from a negotiation point of

Agro Science Vol.10.1

African Journals Online (AJOL)

OLUWOLE

The vulnerability of our soils to impact of climate change is associated with among ... rainfall events on most land areas and for increasing intensity of .... the Nigerian coastline is about 835km while the ..... The 2007 IPCC fourth assessment.

Can carbon dioxide storage help cut greenhouse emissions? A simplified guide to the IPCC's 'Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-06-01

Fossil fuels account for 75 - 80% of today's global energy use and three quarters of humanity's total carbon dioxide emissions. Without specific actions to minimize our impact on the climate, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel energy are projected to swell over the course of the 21st century. The consequences - a global temperature rise of 1.4 - 5.8C and shifting patterns of weather and extreme events - could prove disastrous for future generations. Stabilizing or reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the coming decades will challenge human ingenuity. Fortunately, the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, published in 2001, concluded that existing and emerging technologies for limiting emissions could - if supported by the right policies - stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by the end of the century at levels that would limit further climate change. No single technology will suffice by itself; instead, a combination of technologies will be required. Many of the most promising technologies will contribute by improving the energy efficiency of certain processes and products or by converting solar, wind and other noncarbon power sources into usable energy. But with oil, coal and gas set to remain the primary sources of energy for decades to come, governments and industry are also examining technologies for reducing emissions from these fuels. One such technology is known as carbon dioxide capture and storage. Abbreviated as CCS, this technology could be used by large c1 Introduction stationary 'point sources' such as fossil fuel-fired power plants and industrial facilities to prevent their CO2 emissions from entering the atmosphere and contributing to climate change. To learn more about this technology's potential, the member governments of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change asked the IPCC to assess the current state of knowledge about carbon dioxide storage and capture. The IPCC

Implications from the climatic change dynamics for research and development concerning renewable energies in Germany; Implikationen aus der Dynamik des Klimawandels fuer Forschung und Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewerenz, Jana Celeste

2009-03-15

The climatic change is a fact. The contribution of the fourth IPCC (international panel on climate change) report is covered in the first chapter of the volume, describing the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas production during the last centuries, possible mitigation strategies, unavoidable consequences, macroeconomic costs for stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and possibilities of renewable energy resources. The second chapter is the Stern report 2006 on the existing scientific literature concerning the climatic change and its consequences, risk analyses and cost estimations for greenhouse gas reduction strategies on the one hand and costs of the possibly catastrophic consequences of the climate change on the other hand. The third chapter is the pilot study of the Federal Ministry of environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety 2007/2008. The fourth chapter is the contribution of the scientific commission of the Federal government on global environmental changes (WBGU) no 5: new stimuli for the climate policy: chances of the German double presidency. The fifth chapter covers the Meseberg topics - the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP) followed by a discussion of the described contributions.

Neurosurgery. Fourth edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, L.; Thomas, D.G.T.; Clark, W.K.

1987-01-01

The Fourth Edition of this volume in the Operative Surgery Series has been considerably revised to accommodate the many changes which have changed the practice of neurosurgery in the past eight years. There have been advances in technology, such as the wider application of CT scanning, in surgical technique, and in the design of new implantable materials. All these developments have substantially affected both the practice of neurosurgery and the prognosis for the patient and are fully reflected in the new edition

Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Baer, P. G.

2012-12-01

One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

78 FR 71903 - 2013 Revisions to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Rule and Final Confidentiality Determinations for...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-29

... companies, sinter plants, blast furnaces, basic oxygen process furnace shops. Lead Production 331419 Primary...\\ IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis... consensus of climate science, including appropriate GWPs, and that the advance of U.S. science and...

Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge The Fourth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC) in 2007 was unequivocal in its message that warming of the global climate system is now occurring, and found...

Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

Science.gov (United States)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2012-01-01

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patt, A.; Dessai, S.

2005-01-01

Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

2012-08-01

While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Alarmist misrepresentations of the findings of the latest scientific assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linden, Henry R.

2007-08-15

The alarmist propaganda following release of the Policymakers Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1 of the IPCC this year is unjustified. We had this information since 2001, when the Third Assessment Report was released. However, this does not mean that we should ignore the potential consequences of increasing the impact of the current interglacial period. (author)

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanja Wolf

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

Our knowledge on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

1991-01-01

A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

Adaptation to climate change. Key terms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levina, E.; Tirpak, D.

2006-05-01

Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Numerous terms and concepts have come into common usage as a result of IPCC reports, discussions in the context of the UNFCCC and dialogs by the climate community at large. This paper examines the key adaptation terms and concepts used by the climate change community and other institutions. Conflicts and contradictions are noted with the aim of sensitizing different bodies to the differences, but particularly the Parties to the Convention and experts participating in the IPCC. Given the need to promote a common understanding among various stakeholders and the potential financial implications of various definitions, it appears important for the IPCC and the UNFCCC to work toward common definitions, at least for a core set of terms and concepts

Imperial Medicine in a Changing World: The Fourth International Congresses on Tropical Medicine and Malaria, 1948.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Julia

2016-01-01

The close connections between colonialism and tropical medicine have been widely discussed by historians over the last fifty years. However, few authors consider the relationship between tropical medicine and European and North American imperialism in the immediate post-World War II period. This article examines the Fourth International Congresses on Tropical Medicine and Malaria, held jointly in Washington in 1948. Using the research presented during the conference, it questions to what degree the specialisation had changed in the postwar period. It argues that although some changes are discernable, imperial traditions and relationships remained firmly embedded within the tropical medicine of the congress.

Prospects for medium and long term in light of the report on climate of IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garozzo, M.

2007-01-01

Reports of the working group of the IPCC confirm that there are tools and technologies to achieve a reduction of the CO 2 in the Atmosphere. It is to intervene in the energy cycle by working on diverse lines of actions

The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.

2005-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation

Fourth annual report 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The Independent Radiation Monitoring Scheme for Clwyd began its monitoring programme in Clwyd in 1988. This is the fourth report on the results of the radiation monitoring carried out within Clwyd. The historical reasons for the conception of the Radiation Monitoring Scheme are given in the First Annual Report together with the protocol of operation and detailed sampling and monitoring information. The fourth Annual Report identifies any changes in techniques that have occurred in the last twelve months together with the latest monitoring and analytical data. Samples of air, beach materials, coastal sand and silt, seaweed, meat, fish and milk were taken from various locations within the county. No significant charges in radiation levels were found when compared with data from previous years. The values have remained within the range currently being expected throughout the United Kingdom. (author)

Is a Breakthrough on Climate Change Governance on the Horizon?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Figueroa, Maria Josefina

The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particular...... the Scandinavian countries have forged ahead advancing a variety of policies to respond to climate change. Similarly, regions, municipalities, and private actors across the world are also contributing to climate governance. This paper asks whether the world is reaching a tipping point where a breakthrough...... on climate change governance is near?. The answer is approached by contrasting the governance model within which the IPCC operates and the conditions of policy and governance interaction toward the more scientific foundations laid out by IPCC, with the range of multilateral climate governance...

A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

The understanding of world climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petit, M.

2008-01-01

After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

2013-01-01

Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

2015-04-01

The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

Using a model based fourth-corner analysis to explain vegetation change following an extraordinary fire disturbance.

Science.gov (United States)

Venn, S E; Pickering, C M; Butler, S A; Letten, A D

2016-11-01

In ecosystems where large-scale disturbances are infrequent, the mode of succession may be difficult to discern and floristic surveys alone cannot be used determine the underlying processes causing vegetation change. To determine the causes of vegetation change in response to a large-scale fire event, we combined traditional floristic survey data, plant functional traits and environmental variables in a model-based solution to the fourth-corner problem. This approach allowed us to describe the trait-environment relationship and provides an intuitive matrix of environment by trait interaction coefficients. We could then quantify the strength and direction of associations between plant traits, species life-forms and environmental factors in two alpine plant communities over nine years post-fire. Initially, the fire drastically reduced vegetation cover and species density to very low levels. The fourth-corner analysis interaction coefficients indicated that over the course of the nine-year study a high abundance of graminoids, a low abundance of shrubs, tall species and those with high leaf dry matter content had the strongest associations with the two plant communities. We also found evidence for functional homogenisation between these two communities using this novel technique. Analysing plant traits and species responses post-fire in this manner can be used to infer the ecological processes driving shifts in vegetation.

The Fourth Revolution: Educating Engineers for Leadership.

Science.gov (United States)

Mark, Hans; Carver, Larry

1988-01-01

Urges a change in engineering education for developing leaders. Describes three previous revolutions in American higher education which responded to the needs of the community. Suggests lifelong education as the fourth revolution. (YP)

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

Science.gov (United States)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Understanding climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

2007-01-01

Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

The fourth dimension

CERN Document Server

Rucker, Rudy

2014-01-01

""This is an invigorating book, a short but spirited slalom for the mind."" - Timothy Ferris, The New York Times Book Review ""Highly readable. One is reminded of the breadth and depth of Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach."" - Science""Anyone with even a minimal interest in mathematics and fantasy will find The Fourth Dimension informative and mind-dazzling... [Rucker] plunges into spaces above three with a zest and energy that is breathtaking."" - Martin Gardner ""Those who think the fourth dimension is nothing but time should be encouraged to read The Fourth Dimension, along with anyone else

Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

Search for the fourth generation charge -1/3 quark via flavor changing neutral currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenlee, H.B.

1996-08-01

There is some likelihood that a light ( t ) fourth generation charge -1/3 quark (b') would decay predominantly via loop induced flavor changing neutral currents. The charged current decay of b' to charm wuld be highly Cabibbo suppressed due to the fact that it changes the generation number by two. The D0 experiment has searched for b' pair production where one or both b' quarks decays via b' → b + γ, giving signatures photon + three jets and photon + two jets. We do not see a significant excess of such events over background. In both modes, we set an upper limit on the cross section times branching ratio that is sufficient to rule out a standard sequential b' decaying predominantly via FCNC in the mass range m Z /2 b' Z + m b . For b' masses larger than this, the dominant FCNC decay mode is expected to be b' → b + Z. 10 refs., 10 figs., 10 tabs

Search for a fourth generation charge -1/3 quark via flavor changing neutral currents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-07-01

There is some likelihood that a light ( t ) fourth generation charge -1/3 quark (b') would decay predominantly via loop induced flavor changing neutral currents. The charged current decay of b' to charm would be highly Cabibbo suppressed due to the fact that it changes the generation number by two. The D0 experiment has searched for b' pair production where one or both b' quarks decays via b' → b+γ, giving signatures photon + three jets and two photons + two jets. WE don not see a significant excess of such events over background. In both modes, we set an upper limit on the cross section times branching ratio that is sufficient to rule out a standard sequential b' decaying predominantly via FCNC in the mass range m Z /2 b' Z + m b . For b' masses larger than this, the dominant FCNC decay mode is expected to be b' → b + Z. 14 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs

The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carver, P.H.; Sadler, S.; Kosloff, L.H.; Trexler, M.C.

1997-01-01

Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO 2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO 2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

2012-04-01

One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Science.gov (United States)

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-09-01

The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, K.

2017-12-01

Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

2011-10-15

During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

Fourth quantization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faizal, Mir

2013-12-18

In this Letter we will analyze the creation of the multiverse. We will first calculate the wave function for the multiverse using third quantization. Then we will fourth-quantize this theory. We will show that there is no single vacuum state for this theory. Thus, we can end up with a multiverse, even after starting from a vacuum state. This will be used as a possible explanation for the creation of the multiverse. We also analyze the effect of interactions in this fourth-quantized theory.

Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stocker, Thomas F.; Qin, Dahe; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Tignor, Melinda M.B.; Allen, Simon K.; Boschung, Judith; Nauels, Alexander; Xia, Yu; Bex, Vincent; Midgley, Pauline M.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Allen, Simon K.; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Breon, Francois-Marie; Church, John A.; Cubasch, Ulrich; Emori, Seita; Forster, Piers; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gillett, Nathan; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Jansen, Eystein; Kirtman, Ben; Knutti, Reto; Kumar Kanikicharla, Krishna; Lemke, Peter; Marotzke, Jochem; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Meehl, Gerald A.; Mokhov, Igor I.; Piao, Shilong; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Dahe, Qin; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Randall, David; Rhein, Monika; Rojas, Maisa; Sabine, Christopher; Shindell, Drew; Stocker, Thomas F.; Talley, Lynne D.; Vaughan, David G.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Allen, Myles R.; Boucher, Olivier; Chambers, Don; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Peter U.; Collins, Matthew; Comiso, Josefino C.; Vasconcellos de Menezes, Viviane; Feely, Richard A.; Fichefet, Thierry; Fiore, Arlene M.; Flato, Gregory; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Hegerl, Gabriele; Hezel, Paul J.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Kaser, Georg; Kattsov, Vladimir; Kennedy, John; Klein Tank, Albert M.G.; Le Quere, Corinne; Myhre, Gunnar; Osborn, Timothy; Payne, Antony J.; Perlwitz, Judith; Power, Scott; Prather, Michael; Rintoul, Stephen R.; Rogelj, Joeri; Rusticucci, Matilde; Schulz, Michael; Sedlacek, Jan; Stott, Peter A.; Sutton, Rowan; Thorne, Peter W.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-10-01

The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a

Climate warming: what we can actually expect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delbecq, Denis; Lemarchand, Fabienne; Boucher, Olivier; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Le Treut, Herve

2013-01-01

As the next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is soon to be published, a paleo-climatologist answers few questions about issues related to climate change (recent climate events, slower temperature increase during the past ten years, lessons learned from the previous IPCC report, evolutions of models, remaining opportunities to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees). A second article comments climate modelling improvements (finer description of oceans, atmosphere and ice field, introduction of new mechanisms in IPCC models such as carbon cycle, vegetation evolution, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, models relying on greenhouse gas emission principles and not on socioeconomic scenarios any longer). A third article outlines that Earth has never been so warm since 1850 and proposes some explanations about the fact that warming has slowed down during the last ten years. A fourth article discusses how greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced, notices that their accounting underestimates the short-term and medium-term impact of methane emission reduction, and stresses the importance of an increased attention to methane emissions

The origin of climate changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bolin, B. [University of Stockholm, Stockholm (Sweden)

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a serious change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.

Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already

IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

2012-07-01

The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

Climate change and the biosphere

Science.gov (United States)

F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

CHANGE HAS ARRIVED

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

孙佳慧

2016-01-01

The planet is warming at an alarming rate,and more concise data means that the effects can be better measured.Whether it’s building bridges in cities or preparing for floods in the countryside,the numbers are showing that the concern over climate change is no longer just handwringing.China has experienced noticeable climate change over the past century.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)

Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Munasinghe, M.; Swart, R.

2000-01-01

The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. F. Lutz

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5 and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3. With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February. However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

2013-01-01

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts...

Study of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Lianqing; Liu Lianxiang; Wu Jie; Wu Jing; Zhang Renshu; Wu Yujin

1997-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI. Materials and methods: Nine patients with intraventricular cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle were studied. The diagnosis was confirmed by surgery in all cases. All of these patients were examined systematically before the operation and studied with CSF cinema MRI in mid sagittal section and finger-gated scan technique. Results: (1) The path of CSF flow was directly displayed. All cysticercosis presented as a filling defect, and a cyst with a smooth wall. (2) The ventricular compliance was normal in cysticercosis. (3) The cysticercosis in active stage was free in the fourth ventricle and could be rolled over, its shape might change slightly within a cardiac cycle. In the degenerative stage, its wall could adhere to the ependyma and obstruct the CSF flow. Conclusion: CSF cinema MRI can demonstrate the degree of obstruction and pattern of CSF flow in cysticercosis of the fourth ventricle, thereby providing useful information for proper management

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

Climate change. Scientific background and process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

1999-07-01

The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

International IPCC workshop on methane and nitrous oxide: methods in national emissions inventories and options for control

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amstel, A.R. van (ed.)

1993-07-01

This workshop had two main objectives: to support the development of an internationally agreed methodology and reporting format for national emission inventories of greenhouse gases by mid 1993, as coordinated by the Science Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); and the development of technical options for reduction of these greenhouse gases and the assessment of the socio-economic feasibility of these options. These proceedings contain the overview papers presented at the workshop, the background papers prepared for the working group sessions and the conclusions and recommendations of the working groups put forward during these sessions. 16 poster summaries are also included. During the workshop, 8 different sources of methane were discussed - oil and gas, coal mining, ruminants, animal waste, landfills and sewage treatments, combustion and industry, rice production and wetlands, and biomass burning - and 2 sources of nitrous oxide - agricultural soils and combustion and industry. All papers have been abstracted separately.

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

Tropical cyclones and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F.

2008-01-01

Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petit, M.

2008-07-01

After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-02-27

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Chemotherapy administration directly into the fourth ventricle in a nonhuman primate model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandberg, David I; Peet, M Melissa; Johnson, Mark D; Cole, Phaedra; Koru-Sengul, Tulay; Luqman, Ali W

2012-05-01

The authors hypothesized that chemotherapy infusions directly into the fourth ventricle might potentially play a role in treating malignant fourth ventricular tumors. The study tested the safety and pharmacokinetics of short- and long-term infusions of methotrexate into the fourth ventricle in a new nonhuman primate model. Six rhesus monkeys underwent posterior fossa craniectomy and catheter insertion into the fourth ventricle. In Group I (3 animals), catheters were externalized, and lumbar drain catheters were placed simultaneously to assess CSF distribution after short-term methotrexate infusions. In 2 animals, methotrexate (0.5 mg) was infused into the fourth ventricle daily for 5 days. Serial CSF and serum methotrexate levels were measured. The third animal had a postoperative neurological deficit, and the experiment was aborted prior to methotrexate administration. In Group II (3 animals), catheters were connected to a subcutaneously placed port for subsequent long-term methotrexate infusions. In 2 animals, 4 cycles of intraventricular methotrexate, each consisting of 4 daily infusions (0.5 mg), were administered over 8 weeks. The third animal received 3 cycles, and then the experiment was terminated due to self-inflicted wound breakdown. All animals underwent detailed neurological evaluations, MRI, and postmortem histological analysis. No neurological deficits were noted after intraventricular methotrexate infusions. Magnetic resonance images demonstrated catheter placement within the fourth ventricle and no signal changes in the brainstem or cerebellum. Histologically, two Group I animals, one of which did not receive methotrexate, had several small focal areas of brainstem injury. Two Group II animals had a small (≤ 1-mm) focus of axonal degeneration in the midbrain. Intraventricular and meningeal inflammation was noted in 4 animals after methotrexate infusions (one from Group I and all three from Group II). In all Group II animals, inflammation extended

Robot vs. tax inspector or how the fourth industrial revolution will change the tax system: a review of problems and solutions

OpenAIRE

Vishnevsky, Valentine P.; Chekina, Viktoriia D.

2018-01-01

The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the accelerated development of cyber-physical technologies lead to essential changes in national tax systems and international taxation. The main areas in which taxation meets cyber-physical technologies are digitalization, robotization, M2M and blockchain technologies. Each of these areas has its own opportunities and problems. Three main approaches towards possible solutions for these new problems are identified. The first is to try to apply taxation to ...

Investigating Changing in Social Studies Textbooks of Public Review (Basic Fourth and Fifth) Based on the Emphasis on Critical Thinking Skills Facione in the Last Three Decades

Science.gov (United States)

Aghababaeian, Parinaz; Moghaddam, Shams Aldin Hashemi; Nateghi, Faezeh; Faghihi, Alireza

2017-01-01

This study investigated the changes in public school social studies textbooks in general period of Iran (fourth and fifth grades) based on the emphasis on Facione critical thinking skills in the past three decades. In this study, content analysis of qualitative and quantitative methods was used to evaluate changes in textbook. For this purpose,…

Climate change, environment and development

OpenAIRE

Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

2017-01-01

Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

On a fourth order superlinear elliptic problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Ramos

2001-01-01

Full Text Available We prove the existence of a nonzero solution for the fourth order elliptic equation $$Delta^2u= mu u +a(xg(u$$ with boundary conditions $u=Delta u=0$. Here, $mu$ is a real parameter, $g$ is superlinear both at zero and infinity and $a(x$ changes sign in $Omega$. The proof uses a variational argument based on the argument by Bahri-Lions cite{BL}.

Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

OpenAIRE

Lipin, Tan

2016-01-01

Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Fazeli Farsani, Iman; Farzaneh, M. R.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Salehi, M. H.; Faramarzi, M.

2018-04-01

The variability and uncertainty of water resources associated with climate change are critical issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal variability of water resources in the Bazoft watershed, Iran. The analysis was based on changes of blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage for a future period (2010-2099) compared to a historical period (1992-2008). The r-factor, p-factor, R 2, and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients for discharge were 1.02, 0.89, 0.80, and 0.80 for the calibration period and 1.03, 0.76, 0.57, and 0.59 for the validation period, respectively. General circulation models (GCMs) under 18 emission scenarios from the IPCC's Fourth (AR4) and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports were fed into the SWAT model. At the sub-basin level, blue water tended to decrease, while green water flow tended to increase in the future scenario, and green water storage was predicted to continue its historical trend into the future. At the monthly time scale, the 95% prediction uncertainty bands (95PPUs) of blue and green water flows varied widely in the watershed. A large number (18) of climate change scenarios fell within the estimated uncertainty band of the historical period. The large differences among scenarios indicated high levels of uncertainty in the watershed. Our results reveal that the spatial patterns of water resource components and their uncertainties in the context of climate change are notably different between IPCC AR4 and AR5 in the Bazoft watershed. This study provides a strong basis for water supply-demand analyses, and the general analytical framework can be applied to other study areas with similar challenges.

Policy options to respond to rapid climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.; Bakker, S.; Tilburg, van X.

2009-01-01

Ongoing research on climate change indicates that we cannot rule out the possibility of extreme climatic changes, beyond current IPCC scenarios. The thinking about policy responses to address these risks is still in its infancy. This study explores the possibilities for responding to extreme

Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

New climate change report turns up the heat on energy policymakers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

2014-12-15

Any doubts about the role of nuclear power in fighting the damaging effects of climate change should be dispelled once and for all by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the IPCC's so-called 'Synthesis Report', published in November 2014, said that if left unchecked, climate change ''will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems''. The Synthesis Report, which brought together the findings of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report produced by more than 800 scientists and released over more than one year, noted that multiple mitigation pathways are available that could limit warming to below 2 C relative to pre-industrial levels, all of which would need substantial cuts in emissions reductions over the coming few decades and near-zero emissions of CO{sub 2} and other long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the end of the century. As 2014 draws to a close, perhaps those with the power to effect energy policy change will take time to reflect on the mounting evidence of what is good, and what is not good, in terms of balancing the world's energy needs with the planet's overall health.

Intelligence Strategy for Fourth Generation Warfare

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Jamison, Edward P

2006-01-01

...." They have named this new era of war "fourth generation warfare." Currently the Department of Defense's intelligence strategy is designed to defeat conventional adversaries vise a fourth generation warfare opponent...

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gisselle Yang Xie

Full Text Available Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd, a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary, including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific and also separately per region (region-specific. One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

1999-01-01

warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

Changing Climate in the MENA Means Changing Energy Needs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam Fenech

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC hasconcluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and will continue for centuries. The regionsin the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA have experienced numerous extreme climate events overthe past few years including the 2009 flooding in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; the 2005 dust stormin Al Asad, Iraq; water scarcity throughout the Arab MENA; and the rising sea levels on the Nile Deltacoast, Egypt. A climate baseline can be developed for regions in the MENA by locating climate stations inthe study area using observations made in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. For projectionsof future climate, global climate models (GCMs, mathematical equations that describe the physics, fluidmotion and chemistry of the atmosphere, are the most advanced science available. The Climate ResearchLab at the University of Prince Edward Island has a dataset available to researchers, called the Climate,Ocean and Atmosphere Data Exchange (COADE, that provides easy access to the output from fortyglobal climate models used in the deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s(IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 including monthly global climate model projections of future climatechange for a number of climate parameters including temperature and precipitation. Over the past 50years, climate changes in the MENA Region have led to increases in annual mean temperatures anddecreases in annual total precipitation. Applying all four greenhouse gas emission futures on a baseclimate normal of 1981-2010 to an ensemble of forty global climate models used in the Fifth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5 results in future temperatureincreases for the MENA Region ranging from 1.6 to 2.3 degrees Celsius, and in a range of futureprecipitation changes from reductions of 11 percent to increases of 36 percent

Climate change: Scientific background and process

OpenAIRE

Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

2000-01-01

The paper gives a brief description of natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past together with a brief synopsis likely future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. The paper also gives a briefing on the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

OpenAIRE

Luo Y.; Qin D.; Huang J.

2010-01-01

Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warmi...

Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

Framing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Environmental Change in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AJB SERVER

The launching of this African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology coincides with the highly publicized release of international assessment of climate change. The latest, on 6th April, 2007 was the 21-page summary for policy makers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group ...

Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ji-Woo Lee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

Bounding CKM mixing with a fourth family

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chanowitz, Michael S.

2009-01-01

CKM mixing between third-family quarks and a possible fourth family is constrained by global fits to the precision electroweak data. The dominant constraint is from nondecoupling oblique corrections rather than the vertex correction to Z→bb used in previous analyses. The possibility of large mixing suggested by some recent analyses of flavor-changing neutral-current processes is excluded, but 3-4 mixing of the same order as the Cabbibo mixing of the first two families is allowed.

Fourth sound in relativistic superfluidity theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vil'chinskij, S.I.; Fomin, P.I.

1995-01-01

The Lorentz-covariant equations describing propagation of the fourth sound in the relativistic theory of superfluidity are derived. The expressions for the velocity of the fourth sound are obtained. The character of oscillation in sound is determined

model prediction of maize yield responses to climate change

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR) as a major .... carbon dioxide concentration and management ... address conditions where water is a key limiting ... Laboratory, United States.

Indications of the changing nature of rainfall in Ethiopia: The ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

Climate Change (IPCC) the working definition of climate change is put as a statistically ... rainfall in the western part of the region than the eastern. From their trend analysis of .... be said then that the behaviour of the 17 stations' increases and ...

Transtentorial herniation of the fourth ventricle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenfeld, D.L.; Lis, E.; DeMarco, K.

1995-01-01

Transtentorial herniation (TTH) of the fourth ventricle is the result of a progressive enlargement of an isolated fourth ventricle which herniates through the tentorial incisure into the middle cranial fossa. The characteristic CT-MR and neurosonographic findings are described. (orig.)

Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

2010-07-01

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

2012-01-01

Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

Systems Prototyping with Fourth Generation Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Sholtys, Phyllis

1983-01-01

The development of information systems using an engineering approach that uses both traditional programing techniques and fourth generation software tools is described. Fourth generation applications tools are used to quickly develop a prototype system that is revised as the user clarifies requirements. (MLW)

Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwengels, P.

1991-01-01

Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

Lepton sector of a fourth generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burdman, G.; Da Rold, L.; Matheus, R. D.

2010-01-01

In extensions of the standard model with a heavy fourth generation, one important question is what makes the fourth-generation lepton sector, particularly the neutrinos, so different from the lighter three generations. We study this question in the context of models of electroweak symmetry breaking in warped extra dimensions, where the flavor hierarchy is generated by choosing the localization of the zero-mode fermions in the extra dimension. In this setup the Higgs sector is localized near the infrared brane, whereas the Majorana mass term is localized at the ultraviolet brane. As a result, light neutrinos are almost entirely Majorana particles, whereas the fourth-generation neutrino is mostly a Dirac fermion. We show that it is possible to obtain heavy fourth-generation leptons in regions of parameter space where the light neutrino masses and mixings are compatible with observation. We study the impact of these bounds, as well as the ones from lepton flavor violation, on the phenomenology of these models.

The Fourth Revolution

Science.gov (United States)

Abelson, Philip H.

1972-01-01

Comments on the conclusions of the Carnegie Commission on Higher Education's report, The Fourth Revolution: Instructional Technology in Higher Education,'' and advocates effort in exploiting the new technology and in assessing the possible adverse effects. (AL)

7 CFR 51.2296 - Three-fourths half kernel.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Three-fourths half kernel. 51.2296 Section 51.2296 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards...-fourths half kernel. Three-fourths half kernel means a portion of a half of a kernel which has more than...

75 FR 35121 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-21

... of policy-relevant scientific, technical, and socio- economic information for understanding the... ``summary for policy makers'') in detail at the time that they accept the overall report. Principles and....ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf ; http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization...

Fourth-generation storage rings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galayda, J. N.

1999-01-01

It seems clear that a linac-driven free-electron laser is the accepted prototype of a fourth-generation facility. This raises two questions: can a storage ring-based light source join the fourth generation? Has the storage ring evolved to its highest level of performance as a synchrotrons light source? The answer to the second question is clearly no. The author thinks the answer to the first question is unimportant. While the concept of generations has been useful in motivating thought and effort towards new light source concepts, the variety of light sources and their performance characteristics can no longer be usefully summed up by assignment of a ''generation'' number

The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

2012-01-01

Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but

Fourth Semiannual Report to the Congress by the United States Atomic Energy Commission, July 1948

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lilienthal, David E.; Bacher, Robert F.; Pike, Sumner T.; Strauss, Lewis L.; Waymack, William W.

1948-07-01

The document includes the letter of submittal and the Fourth semiannual report. These reports are called for pursuant to Section 17 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1946. This fourth report incorporates some changes to the report. In order to make these reports of maximum value to Members of Congress, the Commission has prepared this mid-year report as a specialized document giving a comprehensive account of several major phases of the atomic energy program.

Climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

Mixing two sets of noisy measurements changes the N-dependence of resolution to a fourth-root power law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahani, Alireza S; Carlsson, A E; Wessel, R

2004-01-01

If noise is uncorrelated during repeated measurements of the same physical variable, averaging these measurements improves the accuracy of estimating the variable. When two values of a variable are measured separately, the smallest separation of these two values that can be discriminated with a certain reliability (resolution) is inversely proportional to the square root of the number of measurements employed. However, if measurements for these two values are mixed together, they need to be clustered before being averaged. Distinguishing mixed clusters with small separations can be thought of as a problem of deciding the number of components in a finite mixture model. Using the likelihood ratio, the second-moment estimator, and the k-means clustering methods, we will show that a similarly defined resolution for the mixed scenario is, approximately, inversely proportional to the fourth-root of the number of measurements. The observed fourth-root law is explained in terms of some more intuitive properties of the problem. We also conclude that, assuming that the fourth-root law is universal, the methods reported here are near-optimal

The Readiness of the European Union to Embrace the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Kuruczleki

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Knowledge has become a crucial factor of production in the developed economies and, as humans are the carriers and utilisers of knowledge, skilled human resource is gaining similarly large relevance. These advancements are elements of the substantial changes that characterise the fourth industrial revolution – a phenomenon worth studying in detail. The European Union has been explicitly concerned about the shift to the knowledge economy since the Lisbon Summit of 2000. More than one and a half decades later the eu’s readiness to embrace the knowledge-driven fourth industrial revolution can be examined. We undertake that by creating an index based on various related data.

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Uncertainties and climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

2008-01-01

Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

IPCC's Climate Communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Almlund, Pernille

reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

Search Results | Page 65 | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Results 641 - 650 of 8519 ... According to the IPCC (2007) fourth assessment report, small ... Developing a predictive GIS model of sea level rise for a selected coastal community ... facilitating opportunities for environmental and cultural learning ...

Searches for Fourth Generation Fermions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ivanov, A.; /Fermilab

2011-09-01

We present the results from searches for fourth generation fermions performed using data samples collected by the CDF II and D0 Detectors at the Fermilab Tevatron p{bar p} collider. Many of these results represent the most stringent 95% C. L. limits on masses of new fermions to-date. A fourth chiral generation of massive fermions with the same quantum numbers as the known fermions is one of the simplest extensions of the SM with three generations. The fourth generation is predicted in a number of theories, and although historically have been considered disfavored, stands in agreement with electroweak precision data. To avoid Z {yields} {nu}{bar {nu}} constraint from LEP I a fourth generation neutrino {nu}{sub 4} must be heavy: m({nu}{sub 4}) > m{sub Z}/2, where m{sub Z} is the mass of Z boson, and to avoid LEP II bounds a fourth generation charged lepton {ell}{sub 4} must have m({ell}{sub 4}) > 101 GeV/c{sup 2}. At the same time due to sizeable radiative corrections masses of fourth generation fermions cannot be much higher the current lower bounds and masses of new heavy quarks t' and b' should be in the range of a few hundred GeV/c{sup 2}. In the four-generation model the present bounds on the Higgs are relaxed: the Higgs mass could be as large as 1 TeV/c{sup 2}. Furthermore, the CP violation is significantly enhanced to the magnitude that might account for the baryon asymmetry in the Universe. Additional chiral fermion families can also be accommodated in supersymmetric two-Higgs-doublet extensions of the SM with equivalent effect on the precision fit to the Higgs mass. Another possibility is heavy exotic quarks with vector couplings to the W boson Contributions to radiative corrections from such quarks with mass M decouple as 1/M{sup 2} and easily evade all experimental constraints. At the Tevatron p{bar p} collider 4-th generation chiral or vector-like quarks can be either produced strongly in pairs or singly via electroweak production, where the

The fourth family of quarks and leptons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cline, D.B.; Soni, A.

1987-01-01

This book presents the proceedings of The Fourth Family of Quarks and Leptons. Topics covered include: Missing Transverse Energy Events and a Search for Additional Neutrino Families and a Fourth-Generation Lepton; Cosmological Limit on the Number of Families; and Charmed Baryon Decay

Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

Science.gov (United States)

David N. Cole

2012-01-01

Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

Fourth lepton family is natural in technicolor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frandsen, Mads T.; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

2010-01-01

Imagine discovering a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address the big hierarchy problem of the standard model. A natural way to accomplish such a scenario is to have the Higgs itself be a composite of these new fermions. This is the setup we are going to investigate in this paper using as a template minimal walking technicolor. We analyze a general heavy neutrino mass structure with and without mixing with the standard model families. We also analyze the LHC potential to observe the fourth lepton family in tandem with the new composite Higgs dynamics. We finally introduce a model uniting the fourth lepton family and the technifermion sector at higher energies.

Primer on climate change and sustainable development: facts, policy analysis, and applications

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Munasinghe, Mohan; Swart, Rob

2005-01-01

... between climate change and sustainable development. Building on the main findings of the last series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, in which both authors were involved, the book summarizes the latest research linking the two. Our current knowledge of the basic science of climate change is described, be...

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Climate change and forests in India: note from the guest editors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ravindtranath, N.H.; Aaheim, Asbjporn

2010-12-23

Forestry is one of the most important sectors in the context of climate change. It lies at the center-stage of global mitigation and adaptation efforts. Yet, it is one of the least understood sectors, especially in tropical zones, which constitute a significant portion of the global forests. Recently, there has been a growing interest in forests in addressing global climate change. The IPCC Assessment Report 4 (2007) Chapters related to forests have highlighted the limited number of studies on the impact of climate change on forests at the regional, national and sub-national level, while policy makers need information at these scales. Further, implication of projected climate change on mitigation potential of forest sector is only briefly mentioned in the IPCC report, with limited literature to support the conclusions. India is one among the top ten nations in the world in terms of forest cover. It is also sixth among the tropical countries in terms of forested area. As IPCC Assessment Report 5 work is about to be initiated soon, studies on the impact of climate change on forests as well as the mitigation potential of the forest sector, particularly at regional and national level, will be of great interest to the scientific and policy community. In order to conserve the carbon stored in forests and to reduce CO2 emissions from the forest sector, the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism is now being finalized under the UNFCCC. In this context, climate change itself may affect the mitigation potential significantly, and it is important to understand how vulnerable the forest carbon stock (biomass and soil) in the tropics is to the projected climate change. In fact, there is a need to study the impact of climate change on forests for all the major forested countries

Properties of bound states containing fourth family quarks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashiry, V; Azizi, K; Sultansoy, S

2012-01-01

The heavy fourth generation of quarks that have sufficiently small mixing with the three known SM families form hadrons. In the present work, we calculate the masses and decay constants of mesons containing either both quarks from the fourth generation or one from fourth family and the other from observed SM quarks, namely charm or bottom quark, in the framework of the QCD sum rules. In the calculations, the two gluon condensate diagrams as nonperturbative contributions are taken into account. The obtained numerical results are reduced to the known masses and decay constants of the b-bar b and c-bar c quarkonia, when the fourth family quark is replaced by the bottom or charm quark.

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Gulledge, J. M.

2011-12-01

-management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

Exploring a fourth dimension: spirituality as a resource for the couple therapist.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, D A; Worthen, D

1997-01-01

This article explores ways in which the therapist's own spirituality can serve as a resource in couple therapy. Spirituality is defined as subjective engagement with a fourth, transcendent dimension of human experience. This engagement enhances human life and evokes corresponding behavior. Spiritually based therapy may be influenced by three assumptions: that God or a Divine Being exists, that human-kind yearns innately for connection with this Being, and that this Being is interested in humans and acts upon and within their relationships to promote beneficial change. In therapy these assumptions affect how the therapist listens and responds throughout sessions. The authors incorporate a case example illustrating the application of this fourth dimension in couple therapy.

Fourth Lepton Family is Natural in Technicolor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

T. Frandsen, Mads; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

2010-01-01

Imagine to discover a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address...

Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Solving Variable Coefficient Fourth-Order Parabolic Equation by Modified initial guess Variational ... variable coefficient fourth order parabolic partial differential equations. The new method shows rapid convergence to the exact solution.

Climate change research - Danish contributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

2001-01-01

The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bala, B.K.; Munnaf, M.A.

2014-01-01

Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

Progress toward Consensus Estimates of Regional Glacier Mass Balances for IPCC AR5

Science.gov (United States)

Arendt, A. A.; Gardner, A. S.; Cogley, J. G.

2011-12-01

Glaciers are potentially large contributors to rising sea level. Since the last IPCC report in 2007 (AR4), there has been a widespread increase in the use of geodetic observations from satellite and airborne platforms to complement field observations of glacier mass balance, as well as significant improvements in the global glacier inventory. Here we summarize our ongoing efforts to integrate data from multiple sources to arrive at a consensus estimate for each region, and to quantify uncertainties in those estimates. We will use examples from Alaska to illustrate methods for combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), elevation differencing and field observations into a single time series with related uncertainty estimates. We will pay particular attention to reconciling discrepancies between GRACE estimates from multiple processing centers. We will also investigate the extent to which improvements in the glacier inventory affect the accuracy of our regional mass balances.

Change of Impervious Surface Area Between 2001 and 2006 in the Conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Land cover and land use change have long been recognized as an important driver of past and present ecosystem change, especially when considering terrestrial biodiversity loss in human-dominated regions (IPCC, 2007). Urban land cover is an important component of regional and glob...

Analysis of the projected regional sea-ice changes in the Southern Ocean during the twenty-first century

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lefebvre, W.; Goosse, H. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2008-01-15

Using the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), the projected regional distribution of sea ice for the twenty-first century has been investigated. Averaged over all those model simulations, the current climate is reasonably well reproduced. However, this averaging procedure hides the errors from individual models. Over the twentieth century, the multimodel average simulates a larger sea-ice concentration decrease around the Antarctic Peninsula compared to other regions, which is in qualitative agreement with observations. This is likely related to the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index over the twentieth century, in both observations and in the multimodel average. Despite the simulated positive future trend in SAM, such a regional feature around the Antarctic Peninsula is absent in the projected sea-ice change for the end of the twenty-first century. The maximum decrease is indeed located over the central Weddell Sea and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. In most models, changes in the oceanic currents could play a role in the regional distribution of the sea ice, especially in the Ross Sea, where stronger southward currents could be responsible for a smaller sea-ice decrease during the twenty-first century. Finally, changes in the mixed layer depth can be found in some models, inducing locally strong changes in the sea-ice concentration. (orig.)

An 'agenda for change': Quantifying climate change impacts on natural resource-based economies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacGregor, James; Reid, Hannah; Sahlen, Linda

2006-10-15

For climate change adaptation to be beneficial to developing countries, it must begin quickly and this will require domestic political will. The third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made clear that even if the Kyoto Protocol is fully implemented, inertia in climatic systems means that some level of climate change is unavoidable. The countries most vulnerable to CC include many developing nations; while those better-able to adapt and less willing to mitigate are those most guilty of past pollution, including many developed nations.

Fourth sound of holographic superfluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yarom, Amos

2009-01-01

We compute fourth sound for superfluids dual to a charged scalar and a gauge field in an AdS 4 background. For holographic superfluids with condensates that have a large scaling dimension (greater than approximately two), we find that fourth sound approaches first sound at low temperatures. For condensates that a have a small scaling dimension it exhibits non-conformal behavior at low temperatures which may be tied to the non-conformal behavior of the order parameter of the superfluid. We show that by introducing an appropriate scalar potential, conformal invariance can be enforced at low temperatures.

Fourth branchial complex anomalies: a case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Shrime, Mark; Kacker, Ashutosh; Bent, John; Ward, Robert F

2003-11-01

Anomalies of the fourth branchial arch complex are exceedingly rare, with approximately forty cases reported in the literature since 1972. The authors report experience with six fourth arch anomalies. Retrospective chart review of six consecutive patients presenting to the pediatric otolaryngology service at a tertiary care center with anomalies referable to the fourth branchial arch. All six patients presented within the first or second decade of life. All six had left-sided disease. Four patients presented with recurrent neck infection, one with asymptomatic cervical masses, and one with a neck mass and respiratory compromise. One patient had prior surgery presented with a recurrence. Diagnosis of fourth arch anomalies was suggested or confirmed by computed tomography and flexible laryngoscopy. Treatment was surgical in five patients; one patient is awaiting surgery. Surgical procedures included resection of the mass and endoscopic cauterization of the inner opening of the cyst. The presentation of a cervical mass, especially with recurrent infections and especially on the left side, in a child in the first or second decade of life heightens suspicion for an anomaly of the fourth branchial arch. Diagnosis can be difficult, but is aided by the use of flexible laryngoscopy, Computed tomography (CT) scanning and ultrasonography. Surgical resection of the cyst and cauterization of its pyriform sinus opening should be undertaken to minimize recurrence.

Asymptotic integration of a linear fourth order differential equation of Poincaré type

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anibal Coronel

2015-11-01

Full Text Available This article deals with the asymptotic behavior of nonoscillatory solutions of fourth order linear differential equation where the coefficients are perturbations of constants. We define a change of variable and deduce that the new variable satisfies a third order nonlinear differential equation. We assume three hypotheses. The first hypothesis is related to the constant coefficients and set up that the characteristic polynomial associated with the fourth order linear equation has simple and real roots. The other two hypotheses are related to the behavior of the perturbation functions and establish asymptotic integral smallness conditions of the perturbations. Under these general hypotheses, we obtain four main results. The first two results are related to the application of a fixed point argument to prove that the nonlinear third order equation has a unique solution. The next result concerns with the asymptotic behavior of the solutions of the nonlinear third order equation. The fourth main theorem is introduced to establish the existence of a fundamental system of solutions and to precise the formulas for the asymptotic behavior of the linear fourth order differential equation. In addition, we present an example to show that the results introduced in this paper can be applied in situations where the assumptions of some classical theorems are not satisfied.

After the last IPCC publication and the China-USA agreement, the stage is set for the Paris conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laville, Bettina

2014-11-01

After having commented some alarming data regarding greenhouse gas emissions and their brutal increase during the past decades, the author quotes and comments the content of the fifth IPCC report which states that global warming is, without any doubt, due to human activities, and that a solution is still in our hands. She outlines pitfalls and obstacles for the translation of this emergency into policies. She discusses the geopolitical weight of the main emitting countries (China, USA, Europe, Japan), and finally outlines the lack of regulatory economic instruments

The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

1997-01-01

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

The climate is changing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.

2001-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

Renewable energy costs, potentials, barriers: Conceptual issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbruggen, Aviel; Fischedick, Manfred; Moomaw, William; Weir, Tony; Nadai, Alain; Nilsson, Lars J.; Nyboer, John; Sathaye, Jayant

2010-01-01

Renewable energy can become the major energy supply option in low-carbon energy economies. Disruptive transformations in all energy systems are necessary for tapping widely available renewable energy resources. Organizing the energy transition from non-sustainable to renewable energy is often described as the major challenge of the first half of the 21st century. Technological innovation, the economy (costs and prices) and policies have to be aligned to achieve full renewable energy potentials, and barriers impeding that growth need to be removed. These issues are also covered by IPCC's special report on renewable energy and climate change to be completed in 2010. This article focuses on the interrelations among the drivers. It clarifies definitions of costs and prices, and of barriers. After reviewing how the third and fourth assessment reports of IPCC cover mitigation potentials and commenting on definitions of renewable energy potentials in the literature, we propose a consistent set of potentials of renewable energy supplies.

Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Santhome, Sanmohan

2018-01-01

The temporal change in soil organic carbon (SOC) was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario in the 21st century. A 20-year (1991–2010) set of observed...... to the total variance of random variation was quantified. Statistical analysis showed that the crop-soil models are the main source for uncertainty in analysing soil C and N responses to climate change....

Comparative effectiveness of fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in resistant hypertension: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; Tomlinson, Laurie A; Root, Adrian A; Mathur, Rohini; Mansfield, Kathryn E; Smeeth, Liam; Douglas, Ian J

2017-02-01

Aim We assessed the effectiveness of fourth-line mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists in comparison with other fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in resistant hypertension. Methods and results We systematically searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane library from database inception until January 2016. We included randomised and non-randomised studies that compared mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists with other fourth-line anti-hypertensive agents in patients with resistant hypertension. The outcome was change in systolic blood pressure, measured in the office, at home or by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Secondary outcomes were changes in serum potassium and occurrence of hyperkalaemia. We used random effects models and assessed statistical heterogeneity using the I 2 test and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. From 2,506 records, 5 studies met our inclusion criteria with 755 included patients. Two studies were randomised and three were non-randomised. Comparative fourth-line agents included bisoprolol, doxazosin, furosemide and additional blockade of the renin angiotensin-aldosterone system. Using data from randomised studies, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduced blood pressure by 7.4 mmHg (95%CI 3.2 - 11.6) more than the active comparator. When limited to non-randomised studies, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduced blood pressure by 11.9 mmHg (95% CI 9.3 - 14.4) more than the active comparator. Conclusion On the basis of this meta-analysis, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists reduce blood pressure more effectively than other fourth-line agents in resistant hypertension. Effectiveness stratified by ethnicity and comorbidities, in addition to information on clinical outcomes such as myocardial infarction and stroke, now needs to be determined.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Soil Erosion Rates in Central Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santos Martínez-Santiago

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Although water-eroded soil (WES resulting from human activities has been recognized as the leading global cause of land degradation, the soil erosion risks from climate change are not clear. Studies have reported that WES is the second most significant cause of soil loss in Mexico, and its future trajectory has not been sufficiently evaluated. The aims of this study are to 1 determine the impacts of climate change on WES and its distribution for the State of Aguascalientes, Mexico, and to 2 compare the present and future soil loss rates for the study unit (SU. The State of Aguascalientes is located in the “Region del Bajio.” The impact of climate change on WES was evaluated using the near-future divided world scenario (A2 presented in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 18 weather stations were downscaled to model historic laminar water erosion (HLWE and changes therein in the A2 near-future scenario for 2010–2039 (LWEScA2. Due to future changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR levels, a change in the LWEScA2 of between 1.6 and 8.9% could result in average soil losses up to 475.4 t ha-1 yr-1, representing a loss of slightly more than a 30-mm layer of mountain soil per year. The risk zones, classified as class 4 for LWE, are located to western of the State in part of municipalities of Calvillo, Jesus María, San José de Gracia y Cosio, where there are typical hills and falls with soil very sensitive to rain erosion.

Climate change: Some elements from the scientific background and the scientific process; Klimafaglig oppdatering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H [Cicero, Oslo (Norway)

1998-07-01

The paper reviews the background on mechanisms behind climate variations in the past and man-made climate change and also briefly what is said by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. The IPCC is presented in some detail. The problem of climate change is not important mainly because of increased global average temperature, but because of a potential variability and instability of the global climate and the local weather. In the past, the climate system has fluctuated strongly and rapidly for natural causes. But the stable climate regime observed after the last ice age is currently perturbed by the large outpouring of greenhouse gases from a variety of human activities. Can the stability of the current climate regime withstand this disturbance? The problem of climate change is riddled with uncertainties, and our main challenge to this situation is to find out how to respond in a rational way. 19 refs., 15 figs.

The Fourth Way in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vesa Iitti

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This article focuses on the general history of the Fourth Way in Finland. The Fourth Way, or simply ‘the Work’, began as a Greco-Armenian man named Georges Ivanovich Gurdjieff (1866?–1949 gathered groups of pupils in St Petersburg and Moscow in 1912. To these groups, Gurdjieff started to teach what he had learned and synthesized between ca 1896 and 1912 during his travels on spiritual search of Egypt, Crete, Sumeria, Assyria, the Holy Land, Mecca, Ethiopia, Sudan, India, Afghanistan, the northern valleys of Siberia, and Tibet. Neither Gurdjieff nor any of his disciples called themselves a church, a sect, or anything alike, but referred to themselves simply as ‘the Work’, or as ‘the Fourth Way’. The name ‘the Fourth Way’ originates in a Gurdjieffian view that there are essentially three traditional ways of spiritual work: those of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi. These ways do not literally refer to the activities of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi, but to similar types of spiritual work emphasizing exercise of emotion, body, or mind. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. It is a unique combination of cosmology, psychology, theory of evolution, and overall theory and practise aiming to help individ­uals in their efforts towards what is called ‘self-remembering’.

Perturbation theory for nematic liquid crystals of axially symmetric molecules: Evaluation of fourth rank orientational order parameter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, K.

1993-11-01

Using a statistical mechanical perturbation theory for isotropic-nematic transition we report a calculation of second and fourth rank orientation order parameters and thermodynamic properties for a model system of prolate ellipsoids of revolution parameterized by its length-to-width ratio. The influence of attractive potential represented by dispersion interaction on a variety of thermodynamic properties is analysed. Inclusion of fourth rank orientational order parameter in calculation slightly changes the transition parameter. (author). 7 refs, 1 tab

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Fourth-rank gravity and cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marrakchi, A.L.; Tapia, V.

1992-07-01

We consider the consequences of describing the metric properties of space-time through a quartic line element. The associated ''metric'' is a fourth-rank tensor G μυλπ . In order to recover a Riemannian behaviour of the geometry it is necessary to have G μυλπ = g (μυ g λπ) . We construct a theory for the gravitational field based on the fourth-rank metric G μυλπ . In the absence of matter the fourth-rank metric becomes separable and the theory coincides with General Relativity. In the presence of matter we can maintain Riemmanianicity, but now gravitation couples, as compared to General Relativity, in a different way to matter. We develop a simple cosmological model based on a FRW metric with matter described by a perfect fluid. For the present time the field equations are compatible with k OBS = O and Ω OBS t CLAS approx. 10 20 t PLANCK approx. 10 -23 s. Our final and most important result is the fact that the entropy is an increasing function of time. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. (author). 16 refs, 1 fig

Answers to arguments of those who doubt of the reality of an anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petit, Michel

2010-01-01

The author aims at answering the arguments stated by climate sceptics who deny the existence of a climate change due to human activities. He addresses and discusses the understanding of climate and its modelling and answers to the following statements made by climate sceptics: climatology is a new science still in its infancy; factors which influence climate remain largely unknown, climate models predict the future by using past observations; the role of water vapour is ignored whereas it is essential; nothing proves that atmosphere composition changes are related to human activities; variations in solar radiations have a more important role than atmosphere composition. In the same way, the author answers statements related to the consequences of climate changes (sea level rise is not significant; ice melt does not result in sea level rise; the Earth has experienced much higher temperatures in the past without major damages), or related to the existence of a recent climate change (the notion of average temperature is meaningless; temperature has been increasing since the beginning of the century), or related to the difference between climatology and meteorology (it's an illusion to predict the climate within a century whereas it's impossible to make weather forecasts for next month; how can we believe in global warming when winter has been long and cold), and finally regarding the IPCC (the scientific consensus of the IPCC reports makes no sense; IPCC is a closed lobby for well paid international public servants; and so on.)

Positive solutions with changing sign energy to a nonhomogeneous elliptic problem of fourth order

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.Talbi

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study the existence for two positive solutions toa nonhomogeneous elliptic equation of fourth order with a parameter lambda such tha 0 < lambda < lambda^. The first solution has a negative energy while the energy of the second one is positive for 0 < lambda < lambda_0 and negative for lambda_0 < lambda < lambda^. The values lambda_0 and lambda^ are given under variational form and we show that every corresponding critical point is solution of the nonlinear elliptic problem (with a suitable multiplicative term.

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion

Science.gov (United States)

S. E. Litschert; D. M. Theobald; T. C. Brown

2014-01-01

Forests in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion surround the headwaters of several major rivers in the western and central US. Future climatic changes will increase the incidence of wildfire in those forests, and will likely lead to changes in downstream water quality, including sediment loads.We estimated soil loss under the historic climate and two IPCC climate change...

Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuan B. Le

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

Towards developing IPCC methane ‘emission factors’ for peatlands (organic soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Couwenberg

2012-03-01

Full Text Available (1 Huge reductions of carbon dioxide (CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O effluxes can be attained by rewetting drained peatlands, but this will increase methane (CH4 effluxes.(2 The scientific data base for methane effluxes from peatlands is much larger than that for CO2 or N2O. Once anoxic conditions are provided, the availability of fresh plant material is the major factor in methane production. Old (recalcitrant peat plays only a subordinate role in gas efflux.(3 The annual mean water level is a surprisingly good indicator for methane effluxes, but at high water levels the cover of aerenchymous shunts (gas conductive plant tissue becomes a better proxy. Ideally, both water level and cover of aerenchymous shunts should be assessed to arrive at robust estimates of methane effluxes.(4 The available data provide sufficient guidance for arriving at moderately accurate (Tier 1 estimates consistent with IPCC methodologies. For more accurate estimation (higher tier approaches, vegetation provides a promising basis for development of more detailed efflux factors. Vegetation is a good proxy for mean water levels and can provide - with extra attention to aerenchymous shunts - a robust proxy for accurate and spatially explicit estimates of methane effluxes over large areas.

The 'Blue-Shift' in midlatitude dynamics in a Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalho, L. V.

2013-12-01

Global surface temperature variations and changes result from intricate interplay of phenomena varying on scales ranging from fraction of seconds (turbulence) to thousands of years (e.g. glaciations). To complicate these issues further, the contribution of the anthropogenic forcing on the observed changes in surface temperatures varies over time and is spatially non-uniform. While evaluating all individual bands of this broad spectrum is virtually impossible, the availability of global daily datasets in the last few decades from reanalyses and Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations allows estimating the contribution of phenomena varying on synoptic-to-interannual timescales. Previous studies using GCM simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) have documented a consistent poleward shift in the storm tracks related to changes in baroclinicity resulting from global warming. However, our recent research (Cannon et al. 2013) indicated that the pattern of changes in the storm tracks observed in the last few decades is much more complex in both space and time. Complex terrain and the relative distribution of continents, oceans and icecaps play a significant role for changes in synoptic activity. Coupled modes such as the Northern and Southern annular modes, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and respective teleconnections with changes in baroclinicity have been identified as relevant dynamical forcings for variations of the midlatitude storm tracks, increasing the uncertainties in future projections. Moreover, global warming has modified the amplitude of the annual cycles of temperature, moisture and circulation throughout the planet and there is strong indication that these changes have mostly affected the tropics and Polar Regions. The present study advances these findings by investigating the 'blue-shift' in the underlying dynamics causing surface temperature anomalies and investigates relationships with

Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

CERN Document Server

Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aguilo, Ernest; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hammer, Josef; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Pernicka, Manfred; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Walzel, Gerhard; Widl, Edmund; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Selvaggi, Michele; Staykova, Zlatka; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Marcken, Gil; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Verwilligen, Piet; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Schul, Nicolas; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Custódio, Analu; Melo Da Costa, Eliza; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Oguri, Vitor; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Zang, Jingjing; Zhang, Zhen; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Shuang; Guo, Yifei; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Teng, Haiyun; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zhu, Bo; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Osorio Oliveros, Andres Felipe; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Morovic, Srecko; Attikis, Alexandros; Galanti, Mario; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Khalil, Shaaban; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkinen, Mika Aatos; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Ungaro, Donatella; Wendland, Lauri; Banzuzi, Kukka; Karjalainen, Ahti; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Millischer, Laurent; Nayak, Aruna; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Shreyber, Irina; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Benhabib, Lamia; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Bluj, Michal; Broutin, Clementine; Busson, Philippe; Charlot, Claude; Daci, Nadir; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Haguenauer, Maurice; Miné, Philippe; Mironov, Camelia; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Paganini, Pascal; Sabes, David; Salerno, Roberto; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Bloch, Daniel; Bodin, David; Brom, Jean-Marie; Cardaci, Marco; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Drouhin, Frédéric; Ferro, Cristina; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Juillot, Pierre; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Van Hove, Pierre; Fassi, Farida; Mercier, Damien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bondu, Olivier; Boudoul, Gaelle; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Perries, Stephane; Sordini, Viola; Tschudi, Yohann; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Anagnostou, Georgios; Beranek, Sarah; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heracleous, Natalie; Hindrichs, Otto; Jussen, Ruediger; Klein, Katja; Merz, Jennifer; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Perieanu, Adrian; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Sprenger, Daniel; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Caudron, Julien; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Kreuzer, Peter; Magass, Carsten; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Olschewski, Mark; Papacz, Paul; Pieta, Holger; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Steggemann, Jan; Teyssier, Daniel; Weber, Martin; Bontenackels, Michael; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Nowack, Andreas; Perchalla, Lars; Pooth, Oliver; Sauerland, Philip; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Behr, Joerg; Behrenhoff, Wolf; Behrens, Ulf; Bergholz, Matthias; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Castro, Elena; Costanza, Francesco; Dammann, Dirk; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Flucke, Gero; Geiser, Achim; Glushkov, Ivan; Gunnellini, Paolo; Habib, Shiraz; Hauk, Johannes; Hellwig, Gregor; Jung, Hannes; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kleinwort, Claus; Kluge, Hannelies; Knutsson, Albert; Krämer, Mira; Krücker, Dirk; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Lange, Wolfgang; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Marienfeld, Markus; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Olzem, Jan; Perrey, Hanno; Petrukhin, Alexey; Pitzl, Daniel; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Riedl, Caroline; Ron, Elias; Rosin, Michele; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Schmidt, Ringo; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Sen, Niladri; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stein, Matthias; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Autermann, Christian; Blobel, Volker; Draeger, Jula; Enderle, Holger; Erfle, Joachim; Gebbert, Ulla; Görner, Martin; Hermanns, Thomas; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Kaschube, Kolja; Kaussen, Gordon; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Lange, Jörn; Mura, Benedikt; Nowak, Friederike; Peiffer, Thomas; Pietsch, Niklas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schröder, Matthias; Schum, Torben; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Thomsen, Jan; Vanelderen, Lukas; Barth, Christian; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Guthoff, Moritz; Hackstein, Christoph; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Heinrich, Michael; Held, Hauke; Hoffmann, Karl-Heinz; Honc, Simon; Katkov, Igor; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Martschei, Daniel; Mueller, Steffen; Müller, Thomas; Niegel, Martin; Nürnberg, Andreas; Oberst, Oliver; Oehler, Andreas; Ott, Jochen; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Ratnikov, Fedor; Ratnikova, Natalia; Röcker, Steffen; Scheurer, Armin; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schott, Gregory; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Troendle, Daniel; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Zeise, Manuel; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Manolakos, Ioannis; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Mavrommatis, Charalampos; Ntomari, Eleni; Gouskos, Loukas; Mertzimekis, Theodoros; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Evangelou, Ioannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Patras, Vaios; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Karancsi, János; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Dhingra, Nitish; Gupta, Ruchi; Kaur, Manjit; Mehta, Manuk Zubin; Nishu, Nishu; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Sharma, Archana; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Shivpuri, Ram Krishen; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Choudhury, Rajani Kant; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kailas, Swaminathan; Kumar, Vineet; Mehta, Pourus; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Aziz, Tariq; Ganguly, Sanmay; Guchait, Monoranjan; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Dugad, Shashikant; Arfaei, Hessamaddin; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Hashemi, Majid; Hesari, Hoda; Jafari, Abideh; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Abbrescia, Marcello; Barbone, Lucia; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Lusito, Letizia; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; Marangelli, Bartolomeo; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pacifico, Nicola; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Singh, Gurpreet; Venditti, Rosamaria; Zito, Giuseppe; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Meneghelli, Marco; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Odorici, Fabrizio; Perrotta, Andrea; Primavera, Federica; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Frosali, Simone; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Fabbricatore, Pasquale; Musenich, Riccardo; Tosi, Silvano; Benaglia, Andrea; De Guio, Federico; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Ghezzi, Alessio; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Massironi, Andrea; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Sala, Silvano; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Cavallo, Nicola; De Cosa, Annapaola; Dogangun, Oktay; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Lazzizzera, Ignazio; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Vanini, Sara; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Riccardi, Cristina; Torre, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Lucaroni, Andrea; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Nappi, Aniello; Romeo, Francesco; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Taroni, Silvia; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Kraan, Aafke; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Fanelli, Cristiano; Grassi, Marco; Longo, Egidio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Sigamani, Michael; Soffi, Livia; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; De Remigis, Paolo; Demaria, Natale; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; Marone, Matteo; Montanino, Damiana; Penzo, Aldo; Schizzi, Andrea; Heo, Seong Gu; Kim, Tae Yeon; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Chang, Sunghyun; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kong, Dae Jung; Park, Hyangkyu; Ro, Sang-Ryul; Son, Dong-Chul; Son, Taejin; Kim, Jae Yool; Kim, Zero Jaeho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Lee, Kyong Sei; Moon, Dong Ho; Park, Sung Keun; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Chawon; Park, Inkyu; Park, Sangnam; Ryu, Geonmo; Cho, Yongjin; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Min Suk; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Jongseok; Lee, Sungeun; Seo, Hyunkwan; Yu, Intae; Bilinskas, Mykolas Jurgis; Grigelionis, Ignas; Janulis, Mindaugas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Magaña Villalba, Ricardo; Martínez-Ortega, Jorge; Sánchez-Hernández, Alberto; Villasenor-Cendejas, Luis Manuel; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Reyes-Santos, Marco A; Krofcheck, David; Bell, Alan James; Butler, Philip H; Doesburg, Robert; Reucroft, Steve; Silverwood, Hamish; Ahmad, Muhammad; Ansari, Muhammad Hamid; Asghar, Muhammad Irfan; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khalid, Shoaib; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Qazi, Shamona; Shah, Mehar Ali; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Boimska, Bozena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Gokieli, Ryszard; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Wrochna, Grzegorz; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Almeida, Nuno; Bargassa, Pedrame; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Belotelov, Ivan; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Kozlov, Guennady; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Smirnov, Vitaly; Volodko, Anton; Zarubin, Anatoli; Evstyukhin, Sergey; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Matveev, Viktor; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Erofeeva, Maria; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Markina, Anastasia; Obraztsov, Stepan; Perfilov, Maxim; Petrushanko, Sergey; Popov, Andrey; Sarycheva, Ludmila; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Grishin, Viatcheslav; Kachanov, Vassili; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Korablev, Andrey; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Djordjevic, Milos; Ekmedzic, Marko; Krpic, Dragomir; Milosevic, Jovan; Aguilar-Benitez, Manuel; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Arce, Pedro; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Ferrando, Antonio; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Merino, Gonzalo; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Senghi Soares, Mara; Willmott, Carlos; Albajar, Carmen; Codispoti, Giuseppe; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Chuang, Shan-Huei; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Felcini, Marta; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Gonzalez Sanchez, Javier; Graziano, Alberto; Jorda, Clara; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Sobron Sanudo, Mar; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benitez, Jose F; Bernet, Colin; Bianchi, Giovanni; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Christiansen, Tim; Coarasa Perez, Jose Antonio; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; De Roeck, Albert; Di Guida, Salvatore; Dobson, Marc; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Frisch, Benjamin; Funk, Wolfgang; Georgiou, Georgios; Giffels, Manuel; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Giunta, Marina; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino Garrido, Robert; Govoni, Pietro; Gowdy, Stephen; Guida, Roberto; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hartl, Christian; Harvey, John; Hegner, Benedikt; Hinzmann, Andreas; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kaadze, Ketino; Karavakis, Edward; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Lecoq, Paul; Lee, Yen-Jie; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Maki, Tuula; Malberti, Martina; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moser, Roland; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Mulders, Martijn; Musella, Pasquale; Nesvold, Erik; Orimoto, Toyoko; Orsini, Luciano; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Perez, Emmanuelle; Perrozzi, Luca; Petrilli, Achille; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Polese, Giovanni; Quertenmont, Loic; Racz, Attila; Reece, William; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovelli, Chiara; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Santanastasio, Francesco; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Segoni, Ilaria; Sekmen, Sezen; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Worm, Steven; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Gabathuler, Kurt; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; König, Stefan; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Meier, Frank; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Sibille, Jennifer; Bäni, Lukas; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Deisher, Amanda; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eugster, Jürg; Freudenreich, Klaus; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Lecomte, Pierre; Lustermann, Werner; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Mohr, Niklas; Moortgat, Filip; Nägeli, Christoph; Nef, Pascal; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pape, Luc; Pauss, Felicitas; Peruzzi, Marco; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Rossini, Marco; Sala, Leonardo; Sanchez, Ann - Karin; Starodumov, Andrei; Stieger, Benjamin; Takahashi, Maiko; Tauscher, Ludwig; Thea, Alessandro; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Treille, Daniel; Urscheler, Christina; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Wehrli, Lukas; Amsler, Claude; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Visscher, Simon; Favaro, Carlotta; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Millan Mejias, Barbara; Otiougova, Polina; Robmann, Peter; Snoek, Hella; Tupputi, Salvatore; Verzetti, Mauro; Chang, Yuan-Hann; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Li, Syue-Wei; Lin, Willis; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lu, Yun-Ju; Mekterovic, Darko; Singh, Anil; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Bartalini, Paolo; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Kao, Kai-Yi; Lei, Yeong-Jyi; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Majumder, Devdatta; Petrakou, Eleni; Shi, Xin; Shiu, Jing-Ge; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wan, Xia; Wang, Minzu; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Karaman, Turker; Karapinar, Guler; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sogut, Kenan; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Latife Nukhet; Vergili, Mehmet; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Aliev, Takhmasib; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Deniz, Muhammed; Gamsizkan, Halil; Guler, Ali Murat; Ocalan, Kadir; Ozpineci, Altug; Serin, Meltem; Sever, Ramazan; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Yildirim, Eda; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Isildak, Bora; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Ozkorucuklu, Suat; Sonmez, Nasuf; Cankocak, Kerem; Levchuk, Leonid; Bostock, Francis; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Frazier, Robert; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Kreczko, Lukasz; Metson, Simon; Newbold, Dave M; Nirunpong, Kachanon; Poll, Anthony; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Williams, Thomas; Basso, Lorenzo; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Jackson, James; Kennedy, Bruce W; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Tomalin, Ian R; Womersley, William John; Bainbridge, Robert; Ball, Gordon; Beuselinck, Raymond; Buchmuller, Oliver; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Cutajar, Michael; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Futyan, David; Gilbert, Andrew; Guneratne Bryer, Arlo; Hall, Geoffrey; Hatherell, Zoe; Hays, Jonathan; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Marrouche, Jad; Mathias, Bryn; Nandi, Robin; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Papageorgiou, Anastasios; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Pioppi, Michele; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Ryan, Matthew John; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Sparrow, Alex; Stoye, Markus; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Wakefield, Stuart; Wardle, Nicholas; Whyntie, Tom; Chadwick, Matthew; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Martin, William; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Scarborough, Tara; Charaf, Otman; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Heister, Arno; St John, Jason; Lawson, Philip; Lazic, Dragoslav; Rohlf, James; Sperka, David; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Cutts, David; Ferapontov, Alexey; Heintz, Ulrich; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kukartsev, Gennadiy; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Luk, Michael; Narain, Meenakshi; Nguyen, Duong; Segala, Michael; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Tsang, Ka Vang; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Dolen, James; Erbacher, Robin; Gardner, Michael; Houtz, Rachel; Ko, Winston; Kopecky, Alexandra; Lander, Richard; Miceli, Tia; Pellett, Dave; Ricci-tam, Francesca; Rutherford, Britney; Searle, Matthew; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Tripathi, Mani; Vasquez Sierra, Ricardo; Andreev, Valeri; Cline, David; Cousins, Robert; Duris, Joseph; Erhan, Samim; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Jarvis, Chad; Plager, Charles; Rakness, Gregory; Schlein, Peter; Traczyk, Piotr; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Babb, John; Clare, Robert; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Giordano, Ferdinando; Hanson, Gail; Jeng, Geng-Yuan; Liu, Hongliang; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Nguyen, Harold; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Sturdy, Jared; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Wilken, Rachel; Wimpenny, Stephen; Andrews, Warren; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; Evans, David; Golf, Frank; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Lebourgeois, Matthew; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Mangano, Boris; Padhi, Sanjay; Palmer, Christopher; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Sudano, Elizabeth; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Barge, Derek; Bellan, Riccardo; Campagnari, Claudio; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; Danielson, Thomas; Flowers, Kristen; Geffert, Paul; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Kalavase, Puneeth; Koay, Sue Ann; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Lowette, Steven; Mccoll, Nickolas; Pavlunin, Viktor; Rebassoo, Finn; Ribnik, Jacob; Richman, Jeffrey; Rossin, Roberto; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Duarte, Javier; Gataullin, Marat; Ma, Yousi; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Rogan, Christopher; Spiropulu, Maria; Timciuc, Vladlen; Veverka, Jan; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Yang, Yong; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Akgun, Bora; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carroll, Ryan; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Jang, Dong Wook; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Paulini, Manfred; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Drell, Brian Robert; Edelmaier, Christopher; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Heyburn, Bernadette; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Ulmer, Keith; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Eggert, Nicholas; Gibbons, Lawrence Kent; Heltsley, Brian; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Kreis, Benjamin; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Vaughan, Jennifer; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bloch, Ingo; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Chetluru, Vasundhara; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gao, Yanyan; Green, Dan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Kilminster, Benjamin; Klima, Boaz; Kunori, Shuichi; Kwan, Simon; Leonidopoulos, Christos; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Musienko, Yuri; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Sharma, Seema; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Tan, Ping; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitmore, Juliana; Wu, Weimin; Yang, Fan; Yumiceva, Francisco; Yun, Jae Chul; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Dobur, Didar; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Fu, Yu; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Gartner, Joseph; Hugon, Justin; Kim, Bockjoo; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Remington, Ronald; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Sellers, Paul; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Snowball, Matthew; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Gaultney, Vanessa; Hewamanage, Samantha; Lebolo, Luis Miguel; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Chen, Jie; Diamond, Brendan; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Jenkins, Merrill; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Dorney, Brian; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Vodopiyanov, Igor; Adams, Mark Raymond; Anghel, Ioana Maria; Apanasevich, Leonard; Bai, Yuting; Bazterra, Victor Eduardo; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Callner, Jeremy; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Khalatyan, Samvel; Lacroix, Florent; Malek, Magdalena; O'Brien, Christine; Silkworth, Christopher; Strom, Derek; Varelas, Nikos; Akgun, Ugur; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Duru, Firdevs; Griffiths, Scott; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Newsom, Charles Ray; Norbeck, Edwin; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Sen, Sercan; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yetkin, Taylan; Yi, Kai; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Giurgiu, Gavril; Gritsan, Andrei; Guo, Zijin; Hu, Guofan; Maksimovic, Petar; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Swartz, Morris; Whitbeck, Andrew; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Grachov, Oleg; Kenny Iii, Raymond Patrick; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Tinti, Gemma; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Zhukova, Victoria; Barfuss, Anne-Fleur; Bolton, Tim; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Shrestha, Shruti; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Boutemeur, Madjid; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Kellogg, Richard G; Kirn, Malina; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Marionneau, Matthieu; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Peterman, Alison; Skuja, Andris; Temple, Jeffrey; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Twedt, Elizabeth; Apyan, Aram; Bauer, Gerry; Bendavid, Joshua; Busza, Wit; Butz, Erik; Cali, Ivan Amos; Chan, Matthew; Dutta, Valentina; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kim, Yongsun; Klute, Markus; Krajczar, Krisztian; Li, Wei; Luckey, Paul David; Ma, Teng; Nahn, Steve; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Rudolph, Matthew; Stephans, George; Stöckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty; Sung, Kevin; Velicanu, Dragos; Wenger, Edward Allen; Wolf, Roger; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Yoon, Sungho; Zanetti, Marco; Cooper, Seth; Dahmes, Bryan; De Benedetti, Abraham; Franzoni, Giovanni; Gude, Alexander; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Pastika, Nathaniel; Rusack, Roger; Sasseville, Michael; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Cremaldi, Lucien Marcus; Kroeger, Rob; Perera, Lalith; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sanders, David A; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Butt, Jamila; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Eads, Michael; Keller, Jason; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Malbouisson, Helena; Malik, Sudhir; Snow, Gregory R; Baur, Ulrich; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Jain, Supriya; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Shipkowski, Simon Peter; Smith, Kenneth; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Haley, Joseph; Nash, David; Trocino, Daniele; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Anastassov, Anton; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Ofierzynski, Radoslaw Adrian; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael Henry; Stoynev, Stoyan; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Antonelli, Louis; Berry, Douglas; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kolb, Jeff; Lannon, Kevin; Luo, Wuming; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Morse, David Michael; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Slaunwhite, Jason; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Vuosalo, Carl; Williams, Grayson; Winer, Brian L; Adam, Nadia; Berry, Edmund; Elmer, Peter; Gerbaudo, Davide; Halyo, Valerie; Hebda, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Hunt, Adam; Jindal, Pratima; Lopes Pegna, David; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Raval, Amita; Safdi, Ben; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zuranski, Andrzej; Acosta, Jhon Gabriel; Brownson, Eric; Huang, Xing Tao; Lopez, Angel; Mendez, Hector; Oliveros, Sandra; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Zatserklyaniy, Andriy; Alagoz, Enver; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bolla, Gino; Bortoletto, Daniela; De Mattia, Marco; Everett, Adam; Hu, Zhen; Jones, Matthew; Koybasi, Ozhan; Kress, Matthew; Laasanen, Alvin T; Leonardo, Nuno; Maroussov, Vassili; Merkel, Petra; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Zablocki, Jakub; Zheng, Yu; Guragain, Samir; Parashar, Neeti; Adair, Antony; Boulahouache, Chaouki; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; Chung, Yeon Sei; Covarelli, Roberto; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Miner, Daniel Carl; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Zielinski, Marek; Bhatti, Anwar; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Lungu, Gheorghe; Malik, Sarah; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Patel, Rishi; Rekovic, Vladimir; Robles, Jorge; Rose, Keith; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Seitz, Claudia; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Cerizza, Giordano; Hollingsworth, Matthew; Spanier, Stefan; Yang, Zong-Chang; York, Andrew; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Safonov, Alexei; Sakuma, Tai; Sengupta, Sinjini; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Toback, David; Akchurin, Nural; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Jeong, Chiyoung; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Roh, Youn; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Florez, Carlos; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Johnston, Cody; Kurt, Pelin; Maguire, Charles; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Balazs, Michael; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wood, John; Yohay, Rachel; Gollapinni, Sowjanya; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sakharov, Alexandre; Anderson, Michael; Belknap, Donald; Borrello, Laura; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Friis, Evan; Gray, Lindsey; Grogg, Kira Suzanne; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Klukas, Jeffrey; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Leonard, Jessica; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Palmonari, Francesco; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Ross, Ian; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Swanson, Joshua

2012-01-01

Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up- and down-type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant CKM matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. This result significantly reduces the allowed parameter space for a fourt...

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

2012-07-01

Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

Fourth Generation War: Paradigm for Change

Science.gov (United States)

2005-06-01

PARADIGM FOR CHANGE by Ghanshyam Singh Katoch June 2005 Thesis Advisor : Kalev Sepp Second Reader...Approved by: Kalev Sepp Thesis Advisor Douglas Borer Second Reader Gordon McCormick Chairman, Department of Defense...combination of all the resources of the government, not just the army. d. Economy of Effort A Robo -Soldier is a small, tracked, electrically powered vehicle

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

Science.gov (United States)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately

Scientific consensus and climate change: the codification of a global research agenda

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehmer-Christiansen, S.

1993-01-01

The 'scientific consensus' which influenced the Framework Convention on Climate Change was carefully drafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1988 and 1992. In spite of it, there have been divergent national responses and policy controversy continues. The willingness of States to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases appears to be declining. An explanation for this is proposed which stresses the question of whether the nature of the scientific advice as sought and given bears some responsibility for the weak policy response. Institutional and personality factors in the formulation of IPCC advice are explored, as is the policy model upon which advice was given. It is concluded that this model is intrinsically unable to generate decisive environmental policy, but rather invites the institutions of the natural sciences and macro-economics to endow their research agendas with claims to policy relevance through the production of future 'findings'. (Author)

Effects of Climate Change on Urban Rainwater Harvesting in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kwong Fai A. Lo

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to water-related issues due to rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure and changes in rainfall patterns. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on rainwater harvesting systems (RWH in the tropical urban city, Colombo, Sri Lanka. The future climate change projections are downscaled from global circulation models to the urban catchment scale using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG, described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, coupled with Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3 model results. Historical rainfall data from 1981–2010 is used to simulate long-term future rainfall data from 2011–2099. The percentage change of the rainfall is calculated. The rainfall patterns are analyzed based on the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Water requirements are calculated based on the selected scenario types. Rainfall and water demand data are incorporated into a water balance model. Climate change impacts for the selected RWH scenarios are calculated based on the water security analysis for each scenario. Analysis of the future rainfall data of Colombo reveals that several extreme weather events with very heavy rainfall may occur in the future. However, the frequency of these big events may not occur too often. Most of the selected global circulation models (GCMs in this study predict that there will be more rainfall towards the end of this century (2080-2099. Residential RWH systems will be more affected than non-residential systems. RWH systems in Colombo should include potential future climate changes in their future design and planning and be prepared for excess runoff and additional measures against potential overflow and urban floods.

Quantifying the effects of climate change on water resources in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Christensen, Jens H.

2007-01-01

climatological output data from the regional climate model HIRHAM (Danish Meteorological Institute), which dynamically downscales the climate change signals from the coarser resolution global climate model HadAM3H (Hadley Centre), with the concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols based on the IPCC SRES A2...

The petroleum industry's response to climate change: The role of the IPIECA Global Climate Change Working Group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemlin, J.S.; Graham Bryce, I.

1994-01-01

IPIECA formed the Global Climate Change Working Group in 1988 to coordinate members' efforts to understand the global climate change issue, to promote support for education and research, and to serve as the focus for engaging with international activities. The working group has sponsored a number of activities, including seminars and workshops. The Lisbon Experts Workshop on Socio-Economic Assessment of Climate Change in 1993 represents the most recent IPIECA forum for interaction between industry experts and those involved in the production of the IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report. This workshop is described in the article. (author)

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Climate change and marine life

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

2012-01-01

A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

2013-01-01

In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The

Climate change studies and the human sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

OpenAIRE

Hansen, G; Stone, D

2016-01-01

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts...

Linking city development and adaptation to climate change

OpenAIRE

Andrej Steiner; Rudolf Bauer; Jana Knezova

2014-01-01

Climate change is happening, projected to continue and poses serious challenges also for cities' development. Extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as heat waves, floods and droughts are expected to happen more frequently in many parts of Europe. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts global temperatures to rise an additional 2-4˚C by the end of this century and graduation of weather extremes. While urban areas will generally experience the sam...

Scientific climate change information by collaborative venture and digital portal

Science.gov (United States)

Dubelaar-Versluis, W.

2010-09-01

Klimaatportaal is the digital entry of Dutch ‘climate' knowledge centres, which are collaborated in the Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC). This collaborative venture was established in 2003 by the Dutch climate research community to improve the quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the communication of Dutch climate research. By now, eight Dutch knowledge centres are participating and still more want to join. The Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) supports the PCCC and the project is implemented in collaboration with the BSIK ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning' programme. The website provides actual and background climate change information for a wide audience on the national scale from policy makers, media to general public. By supplying integral climate information, such as observations of climate change, causes and consequences of climate system, adaptation, mitigation and energy issues, a wide spectrum of target groups will be served. The information is offered in different forms, because of the needs of different target groups. Klimaatportaal contains therefore news on climate issues, frequently asked questions and popular science reports, like the annually brochure De Staat van het Klimaat (‘The State of the Climate'). Recently, also a portal for students is added, where they can find information for their assignments. Beside the website, PCCC is organising activities as symposia and workshops and is supplying information on international issues, for example the content of the Kyoto protocol and the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007). Finally, informing the public through contacts with the media is also an important part of the PCCC. The presentation will address the strengths and weaknesses of this approach which may serve as an example for combining knowledge in outreach activities in other countries.

"Climate change" and vulnerability analysis: poor will become poorer

OpenAIRE

Ozer, Pierre

2013-01-01

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warme...

The Ethical Dimension of Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrara, V.

2006-01-01

The ethical dimension of climate change and the problem of fairness in implementing Kyoto Protocol and the post-Kyoto phase have become the hinge around which the negotiating process can be re launched or definitely blocked. This article discusses some aspects of the international debate that can be useful in understanding the issues. ENEA conducts no programmatic activities of its own in this field, but, as the national Focal Point for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), it participates in the international exchange of information on the subject [it

Korea's transition to the IPCC : Introduction of BAT-based Integrated ACT

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Daegyun; Yoo, Heungmin; Kim, Younglan

2017-04-01

Recently, environmental pollution concerns have been increased in Korea more than ever before. So, The Ministry of Environment and the National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER) in Korea has forged a policy that can effectively reduce the environmental pollutants emitted from each business sectors. This policy nicknamed the "Integrated Environmental Management Act" will be implemented from January 2017. It is to consolidate the management method of each environment media (such as water/atmosphere, etc.) and discharge facility into single authorization and/or permission system for entire installation. In particular, it is the environmental management system in according to the "Act on Integrated Management of Environmental Pollution Facilities" that encourages active participation of companies, grant customized emission permits by considering the ambient environmental condition as well as best available techniques, and review the permitted items periodically. Throughout this optimal management policy, we expect the minimization of the environmental effect by reducing the production and emission of pollutants. The integrated environmental management system is a scientific and advanced whole new management system and it is also a policy that considers the environment and human health effect in a synthetically, and minimizes the emission of pollutants by applying the best available techniques. In this presentation, we will talk about the Korea's transition stage to IPCC(integrated pollution prevention and control) and introduce the whole new Integrated Environmental Management system of Korea.

Climate change science compendium 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

2009-09-15

In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2007-02-15

Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Science.gov (United States)

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

Microbiology of third and fourth branchial pouch cysts.

Science.gov (United States)

Pahlavan, Shane; Haque, Waqar; Pereira, Kevin; Larrier, Deidre; Valdez, Tulio A

2010-03-01

To identify the most common pathogens involved in infections of third and fourth branchial pouch cysts. Third and fourth branchial pouch cyst infections are an uncommon cause of anterior neck abscesses often confused with other entities, such as thyroglossal duct cysts and thyroid abscesses leading to misdiagnosis, recurrence, and increased morbidity related to a delay in diagnosis and appropriate treatment. Retrospective chart and literature review. Retrospective chart review case series of patients presenting to the Bobby R. Alford Department of Otolaryngology at Texas Children's Hospital from July 2004 to July 2008 with third and fourth branchial pouch cysts. A total of 11 patients were identified. All patients had left-sided lesions. Eikenella corrodens was found in 60% of cultures and was the most common organism identified in our patient group. Furthermore, 56% of the organisms isolated were anaerobic. All organisms with the exception of Staphylococcus aureus were identified as oral cavity flora. Third and fourth branchial pouch cysts provide a communication between the neck and the oral cavity through pyriform sinus tracts. The presence of oral cavity flora in a left anterior neck abscess should raise the suspicion of a branchial pouch anomaly, and subsequently alter therapeutic management.

The Atlas of Climate Change. Based on SEAP-CMIP5. Super-ensemble projection and attribution (SEAP) of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong, Wenjie; Guo, Yan [Beijing Normal Univ. (China). Normal Univ. College of Global Change and Earth System Science; Ren, Fumin [China Meterological Administration, Beijing (China). National Climate Center; Huang, Jianbin [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Center for Earth System Science

2013-02-01

Outputs from the latest generation of earth system model from world class model development groups for IPCC AR5. Describes quantitatively state historical responsibility for global warming. Demonstrates how the Earth's climate system will change from today up to 2100. Describes how much climate change we may avoid if we take action according to Cancun Pledge ''The Atlas of Climate Change-Based on SEAP-CMIP5'' is intended to satisfy readers' curiosity: how will our climate system change over the next 100 years? It is the first showcase for the state-of -the-art earth system models that released their CMIP5 simulations for the IPCC AR5.The atlas focuses on both the past climate system change from 1850 and the projection of the future climate system change to 2100 using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on climate models. This provides the research and application community interested in the impact of climate change on fields such as agriculture, ecosystem, environment,water resources, energy, health, economy, risk governance and international negotiation, etc. with the newest climate change projection information. Additionally, the atlas will show the historical responsibility of the developed/developing countries and possible contributions to the mitigation of climate change according to their pledge of GHG emission reduction after the Cancun Agreement as an extension numerical experiment to CMIP5 with NCAR's CESM1.0. The authors will update this atlas after future releases of CMIP5 model outputs and update the figures in the second edition of the atlas in 2012-2013.

Fourth human parechovirus serotype

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benschop, Kimberley S. M.; Schinkel, Janke; Luken, Manon E.; van den Broek, Peter J. M.; Beersma, Matthias F. C.; Menelik, Negassi; van Eijk, Hetty W. M.; Zaaijer, Hans L.; Vandenbroucke-Grauls, Christina M. J. E.; Beld, Marcel G. H. M.; Wolthers, Katja C.

2006-01-01

We identified a novel human parechovirus (HPeV) type (K251176-02) from a neonate with fever. Analysis of the complete genome showed K251176-02 to be a new HPeV genotype. Since K251176-02 could not be neutralized with antibodies against known HPeV serotypes 1-3, it should be classified as a fourth

Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

2014-10-01

We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

2014-12-01

Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

Telling time in the Fourth Gospel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerome H. Neyrey

2008-01-01

Full Text Available When we begin the task of telling time in the Fourth Gospel, we bring something not found in any previous study, namely, a model of time articulated by cross- ultural anthropologists (Bordieu, in Pitt-Rivers 1963:55-72, Ayoade, in Wright 1984:71-89. As much as we admire Davies’ study, she has no notes to her chapter on time nor any citations in her bibliography to indicate that she has any conversation partners, much less cultural experts, a deficit to be filled in this study. Learning to tell time entails three theoretical considerations: a definition of time, key classifications of it, and special attention to what the ancients meant by past, present and future. With these lenses we are prepared to do as thorough a study as we can on telling time in the Fourth Gospel. As we consider each classification, we will suggest a brief meaning of it from the experts on time, then present a body of Greco-Roman materials illustrative of the classification, and finally use it to gather and interpret data in John. Proving the native existence of these classifications for telling time in antiquity is essential for readers to have a background against which to compare their usage with that of the Fourth Gospel.

Human Resources Administration: A School-Based Perspective. Fourth Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard

2009-01-01

Enhanced and updated, this Fourth Edition of Richard E. Smith's highly successful text examines the growing role of the principal in planning, hiring, staff development, supervision, and other human resource functions. The Fourth Edition includes new sections on ethics, induction, and the role of the mentor teacher. This edition also introduces…

Fourth standard model family neutrino at future linear colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciftci, A.K.; Ciftci, R.; Sultansoy, S.

2005-01-01

It is known that flavor democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three-family fermions flavor democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac (ν 4 ) and Majorana (N 1 ) neutrinos at future linear colliders with √(s)=500 GeV, 1 TeV, and 3 TeV are considered. The cross section for the process e + e - →ν 4 ν 4 (N 1 N 1 ) and the branching ratios for possible decay modes of the both neutrinos are determined. The decays of the fourth family neutrinos into muon channels (ν 4 (N 1 )→μ ± W ± ) provide cleanest signature at e + e - colliders. Meanwhile, in our parametrization this channel is dominant. W bosons produced in decays of the fourth family neutrinos will be seen in detector as either di-jets or isolated leptons. As an example, we consider the production of 200 GeV mass fourth family neutrinos at √(s)=500 GeV linear colliders by taking into account di-muon plus four jet events as signatures

Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

OpenAIRE

Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2016-01-01

The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia Slave

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

Art meets mathematics in the fourth dimension

CERN Document Server

Lipscomb, Stephen Leon

2014-01-01

To see objects that live in the fourth dimension we humans would need to add a fourth dimension to our three-dimensional vision. An example of such an object that lives in the fourth dimension is a hyper-sphere or “3-sphere”. The quest to imagine the elusive 3-sphere has deep historical roots: medieval poet Dante Alighieri, in his circa 1300 AD Divine Comedy, used a 3-sphere to convey his allegorical vision of the Christian afterlife. In 1917, Albert Einstein visualized the universe, at each instant in time, as a 3-sphere. He described his representation as “…the place where the reader’s imagination boggles. Nobody can imagine this thing.” Over time, however, our understanding of the concept of dimension evolved. By 2003, a researcher had successfully rendered into human vision the structure of a 4-web (think of an every increasingly-dense spider’s web). In this text Stephen Lipscomb takes his innovative dimension theory research a step further, using the 4-web to reveal a new partial image of a...

An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

Science.gov (United States)

Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha. Prasad

2013-01-01

The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...

Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

2008-01-01

-term - at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year- 1 incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation...

Climate: toward the breaking point? New scientific data on climate crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-04-01

This publication first outlines the scientific consensus on climate change and briefly presents the main predictions published in the fourth IPCC assessment report. A table indicates impacts of average temperature increase from 0 to 5 degrees on water, on ecosystems, on food production, on coastal areas, on health and on the occurrence of some peculiar phenomena. By discussing data related to the evolution of polar ice coverage, and by quoting some press articles, it notices that impacts are occurring earlier and at lower temperatures than foreseen, and outlines the increasing concern related to temperature increase. Based on measurements and IPCC predictions, it shows that greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rapidly, and that atmospheric concentrations exceed the forecasts. It indicates the components of the climate system which may together result in reaching a critical warming level (ocean and ground carbon sink are becoming carbon sources, methane will be released by the permafrost, methane hydrates are becoming carbon sources, ocean acidification). This synthesis finally discusses a possible capping of temperature increase and possible outcomes

Climate change and States security: an operational link to develop locally and on the medium term

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taithe, Alexandre

2007-01-01

The author first notices that climate change and environmental degradations induce new logics in international relationships, and then discusses how consequences of climate change can be factors of instability for States, and how to address them. He recalls and comments the main effects of climate change as they have been described in IPCC reports. He outlines limitations of conventional approaches in terms of direct and indirect impacts on States. Direct effects concern territories (for example, a modification of borders due to sea level rise or to erosion), populations (impact of extreme events on housing, on health) and the economy (more particularly the primary sector and high levels of adaptation costs). The author outlines the limitations of these global models, and proposes additional and corrective approaches: hybrid (regional and global) approaches, local and medium term-based approach (some natural resource management can be assessed and organised only locally). An appendix proposes a contribution of an IPCC work-group in which impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities of the different regions of the world in front of climate changes are summarized

Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor of the fourth ventricle.

Science.gov (United States)

Preusser, Matthias; Dietrich, Wolfgang; Czech, Thomas; Prayer, Daniela; Budka, Herbert; Hainfellner, Johannes A

2003-11-01

Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor (RGNT) of the fourth ventricle has been reported recently as a novel type of primary CNS neoplasm. We present the case of a 35-year-old male patient with RGNT of the fourth ventricle. The tumor was found incidentally; the patient did not suffer from any neurological symptoms. The tumor mass involved the caudal cerebellar vermis, filled the fourth ventricle and protruded into the caudal part of the mesencephalic aquaeduct. Smaller tumor nodules were visible in the adjacent right cerebellar hemisphere. Histologically, prominent neurocytic rosettes with synaptophysin expression were embedded in a glial tumor component resembling pilocytic astrocytoma. Clinicopathological features of our case closely resemble those reported in the original description. Thus, our case confirms RGNT as a new distinct type of primary CNS neoplasm. Due to its distinct features, adoption of RGNT as a new entity into the WHO classification of tumors should be considered.

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Rutledge, D.

2008-12-01

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

Rotation curves of galaxies by fourth order gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stabile, A.; Scelza, G.

2011-01-01

We investigate the radial behavior of galactic rotation curves by a Fourth Order Gravity adding also the dark matter component. The Fourth Order Gravity is a theory of gravity described by Lagrangian generalizing the one of Hilbert-Einstein containing a generic function of the Ricci scalar, the Ricci and Riemann tensor. A systematic analysis of rotation curves, in the Newtonian Limit of theory, induced by all galactic substructures of ordinary matter is shown. This analysis is presented for Fourth Order Gravity with and without dark matter. The outcomes are compared with respect to the classical outcomes of General Relativity. The gravitational potential of pointlike mass is the usual potential corrected by two Yukawa terms. The rotation curve is higher or also lower than curve of General Relativity if in the Lagrangian the Ricci scalar square is dominant or not with respect to the contribution of the Ricci tensor square. The theoretical spatial behaviors of rotation curve are compared with the experimental data for the Milky Way and the galaxy NGC 3198. Although the Fourth Order Gravity gives more rotational contributions, in the limit of large distances the Keplerian behavior is ever present, and it is missing only if we add the dark matter component. However by modifying the theory of gravity, consequently, also the spatial description of dark matter could undergo a modification and the free parameters of model can assume different values. After an analytical discussion of theoretical behaviors and the comparing with experimental evidence we can claim that any Fourth Order Gravity is not successful to explain the galactic rotation curves. In the last part of paper we analyze the gravitational potential induced by Lagrangian containing only powers of Ricci scalar. In this case we find an inconsistency in the boundary conditions in the passage from matter to the vacuum.

Constraints on the mass spectrum of fourth generation fermions and Higgs bosons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashimoto, Michio

2010-01-01

We reanalyze constraints on the mass spectrum of the chiral fourth generation fermions and the Higgs bosons for the standard model (SM4) and the two Higgs doublet model. We find that the Higgs mass in the SM4 should be larger than roughly the fourth generation up-type quark mass, while the light CP even Higgs mass in the two Higgs doublet model can be smaller. Various mass spectra of the fourth generation fermions and the Higgs bosons are allowed. The phenomenology of the fourth generation models is still rich.

Fourth-generation effects in Z0 to bb-bar decay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma Wengan; Xu Zizong

1991-01-01

Possible fourth generation effects in partial widths in Z 0 into bb-bar decay are discussed with the consideration of all quark mixing within the minimal standard model. We show that it is possible to disentangle the effects from the fourth generation. (author)

75 FR 35649 - Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Lake Tahoe, CA

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-23

... Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Lake Tahoe, CA AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS. ACTION: Notice of enforcement of regulation. SUMMARY: The Coast Guard will enforce the Fourth of July Fireworks safety zone from 9... Fourth of July Fireworks Display in 33 CFR 165.1191 on July 3, 2010. The fireworks launch site is...

Climate change at the coast: from global to local

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watkinson, A.R.

2009-01-01

The IPCC has recently documented substantial changes in the global heat content of the oceans, salinity, sea level, thermal expansion and biogeochemistry. Over the 21. century anticipated climate related changes include: a rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more; increases in sea surface temperatures up to 3 deg. C; an intensification of tropical and extra tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/ run-off; and ocean acidification. The Tyndall Centre has been exploring how to down-scale the global analysis to the local level within the framework of a coastal simulator. The simulator provides information on possible future states of the coast through the 21. Century under a range of climate and socio-economic futures and shoreline management options. It links models within a nested framework, recognizing three scales: (1) global, (2) regional, and (3) local. The linked models describe a range of processes, including marine climate (waves, surges and mean sea level), sand bank morpho-dynamics, wave transformation, shoreline morpho-dynamics, built environment scenarios, ecosystem change, and erosion and flood risk. Analyses from the simulator reinforce conclusions from IPCC WG2: coasts will be exposed to increasing risks over coming decades due to many compounding climate-change factors; the impact of climate change on coasts will be exacerbated by increasing human induced pressures; the unavoidability of sea-level rise even in the longer-term frequently conflicts with present day human development patterns and trends. (author)

Fourth-order perturbative extension of the single-double excitation coupled-cluster method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derevianko, Andrei; Emmons, Erik D.

2002-01-01

Fourth-order many-body corrections to matrix elements for atoms with one valence electron are derived. The obtained diagrams are classified using coupled-cluster-inspired separation into contributions from n-particle excitations from the lowest-order wave function. The complete set of fourth-order diagrams involves only connected single, double, and triple excitations and disconnected quadruple excitations. Approximately half of the fourth-order diagrams are not accounted for by the popular coupled-cluster method truncated at single and double excitations (CCSD). Explicit formulas are tabulated for the entire set of fourth-order diagrams missed by the CCSD method and its linearized version, i.e., contributions from connected triple and disconnected quadruple excitations. A partial summation scheme of the derived fourth-order contributions to all orders of perturbation theory is proposed

Seeing the light : adapting to climate change with decentralized renewable energy in developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Venema, H.D.; Cisse, M.

2004-01-01

This book presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to climate change with particular reference to decentralized renewable energy (DRE) projects. It presents the experience of developing DRE projects in five developing countries, Argentina, Bangladesh, Brazil, Senegal and Zimbabwe. The conditions under which these countries can support DRE through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism were also examined. Some policy recommendations were proposed for more dynamic DRE support for the Kyoto era. The Clean Development Mechanism was examined as a key financial tool for supporting DRE. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the least developed countries are the least equipped with adaptive capacity, and therefore most vulnerable to climate change. The IPCC claims that climate adaptation and sustainable development can be compatible if policies are made to lessen resource pressure, improve environmental risk management and improve the prosperity of the poorest members of society. This book presents a framework for introducing modern energy services through DRE that can stabilize the socio-economics of a developing country. The main implications of rural energy deprivation include deforestation and ecosystem degradation, chronic rural poverty and high vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. refs., tabs., figs

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

[Diagnosis and surgical operation for fourth branchial cleft anomalies].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Ting; Hua, Qingquan

2011-11-01

To explore diagnosis and surgical operation through analyzing clinical features of the fourth branchial cleft anomalies. Clinical materials of 10 patients with the fourth branchial cleft anomalies were retrospectively analyzed, and literatures were studied to explore the diagnosis, differential diagnosis and treatment methods of surgical operation; lesions of 10 patients were completely removed by surgical operation, and internal sinus was properly handled. All 10 cases were cured, no recurrence were observed during a follow-up of 1-3 years. 1 patient appeared low voice, and drinking cough, back to normality after 2 weeks; 1 patient appeared paralysis of left hypoglossal nerves, back to normality after 3 months. Recurrent deep neck abscess and chronic sinus infections of anterior area in the lower part of neck should be considered with the diagnosis of the fourth branchial cleft anomalies. Enhanced neck CT scan and barium sulfate meal examination aid to diagnosis, pathological examination can be confirmed. Complete surgical removal of lesions is an effective treatment of fourth branchial cleft anomalies, knowing of the courses of internal sinus and spread of infection, and use of principle of selective neck dissection is the key to ensure complete removal of lesions.

Scaling, Similarity, and the Fourth Paradigm for Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; van Emmerik, Tim; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Achieng, Kevin; Franz, Trenton E.; Woods, Ross

2017-01-01

In this synthesis paper addressing hydrologic scaling and similarity, we posit that roadblocks in the search for universal laws of hydrology are hindered by our focus on computational simulation (the third paradigm), and assert that it is time for hydrology to embrace a fourth paradigm of data-intensive science. Advances in information-based hydrologic science, coupled with an explosion of hydrologic data and advances in parameter estimation and modelling, have laid the foundation for a data-driven framework for scrutinizing hydrological scaling and similarity hypotheses. We summarize important scaling and similarity concepts (hypotheses) that require testing, describe a mutual information framework for testing these hypotheses, describe boundary condition, state flux, and parameter data requirements across scales to support testing these hypotheses, and discuss some challenges to overcome while pursuing the fourth hydrological paradigm. We call upon the hydrologic sciences community to develop a focused effort towards adopting the fourth paradigm and apply this to outstanding challenges in scaling and similarity.

Temporal stability of the Dutch version of the Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV-NL)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouman, Z.; Hendriks, M.P.H.; Aldenkamp, A.P.; Kessels, R.P.C.

2015-01-01

Objective: The Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV) is one of the most widely used memory batteries. We examined the test–retest reliability, practice effects, and standardized regression-based (SRB) change norms for the Dutch version of the WMS-IV (WMS-IV-NL) after both short and long

New Zealand's Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Including the Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-03-01

The New Zealand Government is committed to playing its part in the global response to climate change. This Fourth National Communication provides a snapshot of New Zealand's progress with implementing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This document covers the period from the submission of the Third National Communication in January 2002 through to the end of December 2005. This document also contains New Zealand's Report on the Global Climate Observing System and the Report on Demonstrable Progress under the Kyoto Protocol. New Zealand's response to climate change has evolved substantially since the Third National Communication was submitted. On 19 December 2002, New Zealand became the 101st nation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002, the New Zealand Parliament passed the Climate Change Response Act. This Act established a New Zealand climate change registry and corresponding institutional arrangements in accordance with Kyoto Protocol requirements. Other achievements are detailed throughout this Fourth National Communication. When the Government introduced its climate change policy package in 2002, it anticipated there would be three reviews of the package not later than 2005, 2007 and 2010. The reviews would be necessary to monitor progress with emissions reductions, assess the effectiveness of policies, and confirm that New Zealand was positioned to meet its commitments. The first of these reviews was commissioned by the Government in mid-2005 and completed by November 2005. The review concluded that some elements of the Government's 2002 climate change policy package should be modified to better position New Zealand to respond to the longer-term challenges of climate change. A key outcome of the policy review was the announcement by the newly elected Government in December 2005 that the previously announced carbon tax would not proceed. In addition, a suite of future work programmes would be required to inform Government

Search for fourth sound propagation in supersolid 4He

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoki, Y.; Kojima, H.; Lin, X.

2008-01-01

A systematic study is carried out to search for fourth sound propagation solid 4 He samples below 500 mK down to 40 mK between 25 and 56 bar using the techniques of heat pulse generator and titanium superconducting transition edge bolometer. If solid 4 He is endowed with superfluidity below 200 mK, as indicated by recent torsional oscillator experiments, theories predict fourth sound propagation in such a supersolid state. If found, fourth sound would provide convincing evidence for superfluidity and a new tool for studying the new phase. The search for a fourth sound-like mode is based on the response of the bolometers to heat pulses traveling through cylindrical samples of solids grown with different crystal qualities. Bolometers with increasing sensitivity are constructed. The heater generator amplitude is reduced to the sensitivity limit to search for any critical velocity effects. The fourth sound velocity is expected to vary as ∞ √ Ρ s /ρ. Searches for a signature in the bolometer response with such a characteristic temperature dependence are made. The measured response signal has not so far revealed any signature of a new propagating mode within a temperature excursion of 5 μK from the background signal shape. Possible reasons for this negative result are discussed. Prior to the fourth sound search, the temperature dependence of heat pulse propagation was studied as it transformed from 'second sound' in the normal solid 4 He to transverse ballistic phonon propagation. Our work extends the studies of [V. Narayanamurti and R. C. Dynes, Phys. Rev. B 12, 1731 (1975)] to higher pressures and to lower temperatures. The measured transverse ballistic phonon propagation velocity is found to remain constant (within the 0.3% scatter of the data) below 100 mK at all pressures and reveals no indication of an onset of supersolidity. The overall dynamic thermal response of solid to heat input is found to depend strongly on the sample preparation procedure

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-10

thunderstorms under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Convective-permitting modeling is the most viable and physically robust approach to...been considered. Long-term climate changes during approximately the last 30 years (since 1980) are deemed to be anthropogenically influenced , and...1998. Implementation of prognostic cloud scheme for a regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2621–2639 IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The

Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zhongjie; Deng, Huanguang; Wang, Dongqi; Ye, Mingwu; Tan, Yongjie; Li, Yangjie; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

2013-10-01

Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N(2)O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N(2)O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km(2), over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N(2)O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N(2)O production and were better predictors of N(2)O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N(2)O-N yr(-1) N(2)O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N(2)O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N(2)O emission. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The climate is changing; Klimaet er i endring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alfsen, Knut H.

2001-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

Fourth-rank cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marrakchi, A.E.L.; Tapia, V.

1992-05-01

Some cosmological implications of the recently proposed fourth-rank theory of gravitation are studied. The model exhibits the possibility of being free from the horizon and flatness problems at the price of introducing a negative pressure. The field equations we obtain are compatible with k obs =0 and Ω obs t clas approx. 10 20 t Planck approx. 10 -23 s. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. Hence, an interpretation of the negative pressure hypothesis is provided. (author). 8 refs

Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watterson, Ian G.

2007-01-01

Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

The "fourth dimension" of gene transcription.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley, Bert W

2009-05-01

The three dimensions of space provide our relationship to position on the earth, but the fourth dimension of time has an equally profound influence on our lives. Everything from light and sound to weather and biology operate on the principle of measurable temporal periodicity. Consequently, a wide variety of time clocks affect all aspects of our existence. The annual (and biannual) cycles of activity, metabolism, and mating, the monthly physiological clocks of women and men, and the 24-h diurnal rhythms of humans are prime examples. Should it be surprising to us that the fourth dimension also impinges upon gene expression and that the genome itself is regulated by the fastest running of all biological clocks? Recent evidence substantiates the existence of such a ubiquitin-dependent transcriptional clock that is based upon the activation and destruction of transcriptional coactivators.

Developing Cross-Cultural Competence: A Guide for Working with Children and Their Families. Fourth Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Eleanor W., Ed.; Hanson, Marci J., Ed.

2011-01-01

As the U.S. population grows more and more diverse, how can professionals who work with young children and families deliver the best services while honoring different customs, beliefs, and values? The answers are in the fourth edition of this bestselling textbook, fully revised to reflect nearly a decade of population changes and best practices in…

Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on movements in technologies related to climate change; 1999 nendo kiko hendo ni kansuru gijutsu doko chosa hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2000-03-01

Working group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now conducting technological and socio-economical assessments of climate change mitigation measures. The objectives of this research are, in conjunction with the IPCC activities, to perform investigation on the draft of the Third Assessment Report and the related literatures, and survey and study movements in technologies for climate change mitigation measures by performing investigations and researches by using models as required. Chapter 1 generalizes the activities of IPCC since 1988, and describes the preparation schedule for the third assessment report being worked on, as well as the summary movements thereof and the features of the third assessment report. Chapter 2 states the history of the activities. Chapter 3 describes that the third assessment report (draft) being prepared by the Working Group 3 is composed as a whole of the options of implementation, the theoretical background of the implementation, the international institutions, and the evaluation on the implementation. It generalizes the first order draft (FOD). Chapter 4 states the results of investigations on the points of issue which were regarded as the problems in the process of preparing the FOD. Chapter 5 describes the investigations of the FOD, making various important keywords as the axis of the investigations. (NEDO)

First and Fourth-Year Student's Perceptions about Importance of Nursing Care Behaviors: Socialization toward Caring.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamanzadeh, Vahid; Valizadeh, Leila; Azimzadeh, Roghaieh; Aminaie, Nasim; Yousefzadeh, Sedigeh

2014-06-01

The essence of professional nursing is caring and so, nursing education must make caring as a significant part of their curricula. In this regard, little research exists about how nursing students perceive caring. The aim of this study is to investigate the nursing students' perception toward caring and thus, the impact of socialization process on their perception of caring will be determined. A cross-sectional study was done among all first and fourth-year nursing students (n=230) in Tabriz and Urmia faculties of nursing, 2012. Data were collected using Larson's Caring Questionnaire that assessed the importance of nursing care behaviors (n=50) in six dimensions: "being accessible", "explains and facilitates", "comforts", "anticipates", "trusting relationship" and "monitors and follows through". The importance of caring behaviors was evaluated by the first and fourth-year nursing students in moderate to high level and also, the both groups considered higher ranks for "monitors and follows through" and "being accessible" and lower ranks for "anticipates" and "trusting relationships". The fourth-year students only ranked "explains and facilitates" higher than the first-year students, but the "comforts" dimension is not differed significantly between groups. The findings demonstrated that nursing education in this study has not likely succeeded in producing intended changes in the nursing students' perceptions. It is recommended to exactly find the perceptual changes or in principle the professional socialization process of nursing students, more research using longitudinal designs be conducted to examine the differences in students' perceptions of caring upon entering and completing the nursing program.

Attribution of projected changes in summertime US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to global changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Guenther

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic US emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on summertime regional US ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations, where each set of simulations was conducted for five months of July climatology, using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ model. Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4 global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in US anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS, and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM. For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv on average daily maximum 8-h (DM8H ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (−2.6 ppbv. Changes in average 24-h (A24-h PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 μg m−3, while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-h PM2

Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María C Valverde

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

Wisconsin's fourth forest inventory, 1983.

Science.gov (United States)

John S. Jr. Spencer; W. Brad Smith; Jerold T. Hahn; Gerhard K. Raile

1988-01-01

The fourth inventory of the timber resource of Wisconsin shows that growing-stock volume increased from 11.2 to 15.5 billion cubic feet between 1968 and 1983, and area of timberland increased from 14.5 to 14.8 million acres. Presented are analysis and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, removals, and projections.

Fourth ventricular thyrotropin induces satiety and increases body temperature in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Smedh, Ulrika; Scott, Karen A; Moran, Timothy H

2018-05-01

Besides its well-known action to stimulate thyroid hormone release, thyrotropin mRNA is expressed within the brain, and thyrotropin and its receptor have been shown to be present in brain areas that control feeding and gastrointestinal function. Here, the hypothesis that thyrotropin acts on receptors in the hindbrain to alter food intake and/or gastric function was tested. Fourth ventricular injections of thyrotropin (0.06, 0.60, and 6.00 µg) were given to rats with chronic intracerebroventricular cannulas aimed at the fourth ventricle. Thyrotropin produced an acute reduction of sucrose intake (30 min). The highest dose of thyrotropin caused inhibition of overnight solid food intake (22 h). In contrast, subcutaneous administration of corresponding thyrotropin doses had no effect on nutrient intake. The highest effective dose of fourth ventricular thyrotropin (6 µg) did not produce a conditioned flavor avoidance in a standardized two-bottle test, nor did it affect water intake or gastric emptying of glucose. Thyrotropin injected in the fourth ventricle produced a small but significant increase in rectal temperature and lowered plasma levels of tri-iodothyronin but did not affect plasma levels of thyroxine. In addition, there was a tendency toward a reduction in blood glucose 2 h after fourth ventricular thyrotropin injection ( P = 0.056). In conclusion, fourth ventricular thyrotropin specifically inhibits food intake, increases core temperature, and lowers plasma levels of tri-iodothyronin but does not affect gastromotor function.

The τ-lepton lifetime discrepancy as evidence for the fourth family

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajpoot, S.

1989-01-01

According to this paper, the measured lifetime of the tau lepton suggests that the e - μuniversality may not hold in the case of the third generation leptons. The universality of weak interactions can be restored by involving the existence of a fourth family of leptons and quarks. The charged lepton of the fourth family mixes with the tau lepton with a Cabibbo-like mixing angle. Agreement between the experimentally measured lifetime and the theoretical value as predicted by the standard SU(2) l x U(1) model on the basis of universality of weak interactions required the Cabibbo-like mixing angle (φ) to satisfy cosφ = 0.96 ± 0.02. For this mixing to be nontrivial, the neutrino associated with the fourth family charged lepton must be more massive than the tau lepton. The mass of the fourth family charged lepton is predicted to be less than 45 GeV if the relation between the masses and the mixing angle is given by Weinberg type formula i.e. tanφ = Square root of mτ/mχ where χ denotes the charged lepton of the fourth family

Concussion assessment and management knowledge among chiropractic fourth year interns and residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazemi, Mohsen; Pichini, Alessandro; Scappaticci, Steven; Savic, Mitchell

2016-12-01

To investigate the degree of knowledge chiropractic fourth year interns and post-graduate chiropractic residents have in regard to concussion diagnosis and management. A survey modified from a study conducted by Boggild and Tator (2012), was administered to fourth year chiropractic interns and post-graduate residents via SurveyMonkey.com. Chiropractic fourth year interns and postgraduate chiropractic specialty college residents scored 5.2 and 5.25 out of 9 respectively, which compares well with Bogglid and Tator's reports on medical students and residents. Several knowledge gaps were identified in the sample population. The results from this survey show that the concussion knowledge among Canadian fourth year chiropractic interns and specialty college residents compares favorably with the knowledge of fourth year medical students and residents in diagnosing and managing concussions. Chiropractors appear to possess the skills and knowledge to diagnose and manage concussion equal to their medical counterparts. However, knowledge gaps regarding concussion diagnosis and management were found among chiropractic students and residents.

01 - The sustainable management of radioactive materials with fourth-generation reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-12-01

This publication first explains the reasons for the development of fourth-generation nuclear systems: the issue of resources, the issue of used fuels, technologies for fast breeder fourth-generation reactors, the alternative of HFC-cooled light water reactors, the potential market for fast-breeder reactors, strategies in different countries. Then, the authors address the strategy development for these fourth-generation reactors: requirements, safety, economic competitiveness, resistance to proliferation, flexible management of nuclear resources, development scheme (sodium or gas-based heat transfer), and fuel cycle. They finally discuss the possible transition scenarios towards this new generation

Ectopic craniopharyngioma of the fourth ventricle in a patient with Gardner syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Pena, Andres H; Chaudhry, Ammar; Seidman, Roberta J; Peyster, Robert; Bangiyev, Lev

2016-01-01

Ectopic craniopharyngioma is uncommon and a craniopharyngioma confined purely within the fourth ventricle is extremely rare. We report a craniopharyngioma of the fourth ventricle in a 20-year-old man with Gardner syndrome. Imaging characteristics of craniopharyngiomas and fourth ventricle lesions are discussed with a review of the literature regarding the pathogenesis of craniopharyngiomas and the possible association with Gardner syndrome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Basic research on energy conservation in developing countries. Report of the International Conference on Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies for Climate Change; Hatten tojokoku energy shohi koritsuka kiso chosanado jigyo. Kiko hendo ni kansuru tekio kanwa gijutsu kokusai kaigi hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

The International Conference on Adaptation and Mitigation Technologies for Climate Change was held based on the 1st Conference of the Parties in 1995 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the 2nd evaluation report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This report carries the outline of this conference and minutes. Japanese government had studied the framework of activities implemented jointly (AIJ) for emission control of greenhouse gases by voluntary workers jointly with developing countries. The government decided the basis of the AIJ Japan program in 1995, and approved the evaluation guidelines of this program including confirmed and considered matters which are necessary for government offices related to this program to evaluate and approve each project. IPCC approved the 2nd evaluation report in its general meeting in 1995. This conference was thus held to discuss strategic technology and international cooperation with participation of writers of the 2nd IPCC report, policy planners of Asian countries, Japanese industries, governmental offices and NGO.

Horizon thermodynamics in fourth-order gravity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng-Sen Ma

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In the framework of horizon thermodynamics, the field equations of Einstein gravity and some other second-order gravities can be rewritten as the thermodynamic identity: dE=TdS−PdV. However, in order to construct the horizon thermodynamics in higher-order gravity, we have to simplify the field equations firstly. In this paper, we study the fourth-order gravity and convert it to second-order gravity via a so-called “Legendre transformation” at the cost of introducing two other fields besides the metric field. With this simplified theory, we implement the conventional procedure in the construction of the horizon thermodynamics in 3 and 4 dimensional spacetime. We find that the field equations in the fourth-order gravity can also be written as the thermodynamic identity. Moreover, we can use this approach to derive the same black hole mass as that by other methods.

Fandom and the fourth wall

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jenna Kathryn Ballinger

2014-09-01

Full Text Available I use the Teen Wolf fandom as an example to examine the ways social media has created a more complicated, nuanced relationship with fans. The collapse of the fourth wall between fans and The Powers That Be can have both positive and negative impacts, depending on the willingness of participants to maintain mutual respect and engage in meaningful dialogue.

Towards Reviving Electroweak Baryogenesis with a Fourth Generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Shu Hou

2013-01-01

universe. However, it does not work within the standard model due to two reasons: (1 the strength of CP violation from the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism with three generations is too small; (2 the electroweak phase transition is not first order for the experimentally allowed Higgs boson mass. We discuss possibilities to solve these problems by introducing a fourth generation of fermions and how electroweak baryogenesis might be revived. We also discuss briefly the recent observation of a Higgs-like boson with mass around 125 GeV, which puts the fourth generation in a difficult situation, and the possible way out.

A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

2018-06-01

This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Mazmanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

The Fourth R: A School-Based Adolescent Dating Violence Prevention Program

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A. Wolfe

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a school-based primary prevention program (The Fourth R to prevent adolescent dating violence, and related risk behaviors. The cornerstone of The Fourth R is a 21-lesson skillbased curriculum delivered by teachers who receive specialized training, that promotes healthy relationships, and targets violence, high-risk sexual behavior, and substance use among adolescents. The Fourth R was evaluated in a cluster randomized trial in 20 schools. Results indicated that teaching youth healthy relationships and skills as part of their curriculum reduced physical dating violence, and increased condom use 2.5 years later.

New singularities in nonrelativistic coupled channel scattering. II. Fourth order

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khuri, N.N.; Tsun Wu, T.

1997-01-01

We consider a two-channel nonrelativistic potential scattering problem, and study perturbation theory in fourth order for the forward amplitude. The main result is that the new singularity demonstrated in second order in the preceding paper I also occurs at the same point in fourth order. Its strength is again that of a pole. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qin D.

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

Our response to climate change requires nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemeny, L.

2007-01-01

Australian politicians and environmental activists who reject nuclear power as the pivotal technology to combat climate change stand compromised before the court of international scientific opinion and informed global realism. The content of their rhetoric on nuclear matters comprises pseudo-science, innuendo and ideological prejudice communicated through the politics of fear and risk. The recent report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calls for urgent major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, without which the natural feedback mechanisms that control global temperatures might be overwhelmed. It points out that presently human activity produces around 23.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum, about one half of which can be absorbed by soil and ocean. However this capacity is being rapidly destroyed by rising soil and ocean surface temperatures. The report points out that if global warming cannot be kept between manageable limits, it could lead to the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, and lead to the forced migration of hundreds of millions of people from equatorial regions and the loss of vast tracts of land as ice caps melt and sea levels rise. For many scientists and engineers concerned with energy and environmental issues it is a matter of deep regret that, the IPCC meetings at Kyoto and Paris have not explicitly endorsed the central role, which could be played by nuclear energy in combating greenhouse gas production and climate change. The environmental benefits from switching to nuclear fuels are striking. The IPCC delegates attending Kyoto in 1997 must have known that light and air-conditioning for the modern International Convention Centre were obtained from an electricity grid supplied partly from a network of 54 nuclear power stations. The greenhouse gas emissions saved by the use of this network and the uranium fuel cycle is around 287 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

Science.gov (United States)

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

A rare case of retained fourth molar teeth in maxilla and mandible. Case report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahnama Mansur

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The study presents a case of the rarely occurring totally retained fourth molar teeth simultaneously in maxilla and mandible. The appearance of supernumerary teeth is a relatively uncommon dental anomaly and it is rare for patients to have impacted fourth molars in two quadrant. The aim of this work is to describe the presence of unilateral (right fourth molars in the maxilla and the mandible in a young female patient aged 24 years. Orthopantomogram revealed impacted lower third molars but also unerupted unilateral (right upper and lower fourth molars. Before orthodontic treatment, the patient was subsequently admitted for removal of third and fourth impacted upper and lower molars under local anesthesia.

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

First and Fourth-Year Student’s Perceptions about Importance of Nursing Care Behaviors: Socialization toward Caring

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahid Zamanzadeh

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The essence of professional nursing is caring and so, nursing education must make caring as a significant part of their curricula. In this regard, little research exists about how nursing students perceive caring. The aim of this study is to investigate the nursing students' perception toward caring and thus, the impact of socialization process on their perception of caring will be determined. Methods: A cross-sectional study was done among all first and fourth-year nursing students (n=230 in Tabriz and Urmia faculties of nursing, 2012. Data were collected using Larson’s Caring Questionnaire that assessed the importance of nursing care behaviors (n=50 in six dimensions: "being accessible", "explains and facilitates", "comforts", "anticipates", "trusting relationship" and "monitors and follows through". Results: The importance of caring behaviors was evaluated by the first and fourth-year nursing students in moderate to high level and also, the both groups considered higher ranks for "monitors and follows through" and "being accessible" and lower ranks for "anticipates" and "trusting relationships". The fourth-year students only ranked "explains and facilitates" higher than the first-year students, but the "comforts" dimension is not differed significantly between groups.Conclusion: The findings demonstrated that nursing education in this study has not likely succeeded in producing intended changes in the nursing students' perceptions. It is recommended to exactly find the perceptual changes or in principle the professional socialization process of nursing students, more research using longitudinal designs be conducted to examine the differences in students' perceptions of caring upon entering and completing the nursing program.

Summary of the Fourth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and of the Activities of The International Nuclear Forum in Buenos Aires

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt-Kuster, W.J.

1999-01-01

The Fourth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change was concluded on 14 November 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Unlike Kyoto in 1997, this conference was on a smaller scale and was convened as a technical work session, its aim being to produce a plan of action and a timetable for a programme of work for the next two years. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the conference and looks at the way in which the International Nuclear Forum organized the nuclear industry's representation. In particular, the paper assesses the impact of the nuclear industry's message regarding the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions, and goes on to consider what lessons can be reached for raising the industry's profile at future climate change conferences. (author)

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Quarterly environmental data summary for fourth quarter 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

The Quarterly Environmental Data Summary (QEDS) for the fourth quarter of 1997 is prepared in support of the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project Federal Facilities Agreement. The data presented constitute the QEDS. The data were received from the contract laboratories, verified by the Weldon Spring Site verification group and, except for air monitoring data and site KPA generated data (uranium analyses), merged into the data base during the fourth quarter of 1997. Air monitoring data presented are the most recent complete sets of quarterly data. Air data are not stored in the data base and KPA data are not merged into the regular data base. Significant data, defined as data values that have exceeded defined ``above normal`` level 2 values, are discussed in this letter for Environmental Monitoring Plan (EMP) generated data only. Above normal level 2 values are based, in ES and H procedures, on historical high values, DOE Derived Concentration Guides (DCGs), NPDES limits and other guidelines. The procedures also establish actions to be taken in response to such data. Data received and verified during the fourth quarter were within a permissible range of variability except for those which are detailed.

Final Environmental Assessment to Renovate Fourth Cliff Recreational Area at Hanscom Air Force Base, Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-17

Renovate Fourth Cliff Recreational Annex Grading and topography changes may be necessary to design an appropriate drainage system at the site...goals: 1) Increase safety for personnel and patrons at the site; 2) Provide protection of the exposed cliff face from rainwater runoff; 3) Provide...be followed. Drainage design must meet Massachusetts Stormwater Management Standards, as well as comply with the Federal Clean Water Act. Solid

Compensating amplitude-dependent tune-shift without driving fourth-order resonances

Science.gov (United States)

Ögren, J.; Ziemann, V.

2017-10-01

If octupoles are used in a ring to correct the amplitude-dependent tune-shift one normally tries to avoid that the octupoles drive additional resonances. Here we consider the optimum placement of octupoles that only affects the amplitude-dependent tune-shift, but does not drive fourth-order resonances. The simplest way turns out to place three equally powered octupoles with 60 ° phase advance between adjacent magnets. Using two such octupole triplets separated by a suitable phase advance cancels all fourth-order resonance driving terms and forms a double triplet we call a six-pack. Using three six-packs at places with different ratios of the beta functions allows to independently control all amplitude-dependent tune-shift terms without exciting additional fourth-order resonances in first order of the octupole excitation.

Conservative fourth-order time integration of non-linear dynamic systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krenk, Steen

2015-01-01

An energy conserving time integration algorithm with fourth-order accuracy is developed for dynamic systems with nonlinear stiffness. The discrete formulation is derived by integrating the differential state-space equations of motion over the integration time increment, and then evaluating...... the resulting time integrals of the inertia and stiffness terms via integration by parts. This process introduces the time derivatives of the state space variables, and these are then substituted from the original state-space differential equations. The resulting discrete form of the state-space equations...... is a direct fourth-order accurate representation of the original differential equations. This fourth-order form is energy conserving for systems with force potential in the form of a quartic polynomial in the displacement components. Energy conservation for a force potential of general form is obtained...

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dommenget, Dietmar [Monash University, School of Mathematical Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Floeter, Janine [Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

2011-12-15

The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous

Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Mambo, Julia

2017-12-01

Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-25

... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

Fourth Dutch Process Security Control Event

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luiijf, H.A.M.; Zielstra, A.

2010-01-01

On December 1st, 2009, the fourth Dutch Process Control Security Event took place in Baarn, The Netherlands. The security event with the title ‘Manage IT!’ was organised by the Dutch National Infrastructure against Cybercrime (NICC). Mid of November, a group of over thirty people participated in the

Diet and Cancer: The Fourth Paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

Walter C. Willett, MD, DrPH, an international expert in diet and nutrition, with posts as a Professor of Epidemiology and Nutrition and Chairman of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard School of Public Health and as Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, presented "Diet and Cancer: The Fourth Paradigm".

OSCILLATION CRITERIA FOR A FOURTH ORDER SUBLINEAR DYNAMIC EQUATION ON TIME SCALE

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

Some new criteria for the oscillation of a fourth order sublinear and/or linear dynamic equation on time scale are established. Our results are new for the corresponding fourth order differential equations as well as difference equations.

Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-10-14

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

78 FR 19565 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group II Contribution to...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-01

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. The United Nations Environment... Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts...

Societal Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Handmer, J.W.; Dovers, S.; Downing, T.E.

1999-01-01

Institutions in many wealthy industrialised countries are robust and their societies appear to be relatively well insulated against the impacts of climate variability, economic problems elsewhere and so on. However, many countries are not in this position, and there is a growing group of humanity which is not benefiting from the apparent global adaptive trends. Worst case scenarios reinforce the impact of this uneven distribution of adaptive capacity, both between and within countries. Nevertheless, at the broad global scale human societies are strongly adaptive and not threatened by climate change for many decades. At the local level the picture is quite different and the survival of some populations at their present locations is in doubt. In the absence of abatement, the longer term outlook is highly uncertain. Adaptation research needs to begin with an understanding of social and economic vulnerability. It requires a different approach to the traditional IPCC impacts assessment, as human behaviour, institutional capacity and culture are more important than biophysical impacts. This is consistent with the intellectual history of the IPCC which has gradually embraced an increasing range of disciplines. 32 refs

76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-07

... the leadership of the IPCC Working Group II. This report will exclusively focus on events and... usefulness of taking a risk perspective in order to identify ways in which civil society can promote... and practice for managing the risk of extreme events to advance effective adaptation. All IPCC reports...

The “Fourth Dimension” of Gene Transcription

Science.gov (United States)

O'Malley, Bert W.

2009-01-01

The three dimensions of space provide our relationship to position on the earth, but the fourth dimension of time has an equally profound influence on our lives. Everything from light and sound to weather and biology operate on the principle of measurable temporal periodicity. Consequently, a wide variety of time clocks affect all aspects of our existence. The annual (and biannual) cycles of activity, metabolism, and mating, the monthly physiological clocks of women and men, and the 24-h diurnal rhythms of humans are prime examples. Should it be surprising to us that the fourth dimension also impinges upon gene expression and that the genome itself is regulated by the fastest running of all biological clocks? Recent evidence substantiates the existence of such a ubiquitin-dependent transcriptional clock that is based upon the activation and destruction of transcriptional coactivators. PMID:19221049

Analysis and development of fourth order LCLC resonant based capacitor charging power supply for pulse power applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Naresh, P; Hitesh, C; Patel, A; Kolge, T; Sharma, Archana; Mittal, K C

2013-08-01

A fourth order (LCLC) resonant converter based capacitor charging power supply (CCPS) is designed and developed for pulse power applications. Resonant converters are preferred t utilize soft switching techniques such as zero current switching (ZCS) and zero voltage switching (ZVS). An attempt has been made to overcome the disadvantages in 2nd and 3rd resonant converter topologies; hence a fourth order resonant topology is used in this paper for CCPS application. In this paper a novel fourth order LCLC based resonant converter has been explored and mathematical analysis carried out to calculate load independent constant current. This topology provides load independent constant current at switching frequency (fs) equal to resonant frequency (fr). By changing switching condition (on time and dead time) this topology has both soft switching techniques such as ZCS and ZVS for better switching action to improve the converter efficiency. This novel technique has special features such as low peak current through switches, DC blocking for transformer, utilizing transformer leakage inductance as resonant component. A prototype has been developed and tested successfully to charge a 100 μF capacitor to 200 V.

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pearce, W; Holmberg, K; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate

Implementing Local Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Actions: The Role of Various Policy Instruments in a Multi-Level Governance Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keskitalo, E. Carina H.; Juhola, Sirkku; Baron, Nina

2016-01-01

Recently, considerable focus, e.g., in the fifth IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Report (2014) has been trained on why adaptation and mitigation have not been developed more than at present, with relatively few local government actions taken compared with, for example,...

Primary intra-fourth ventricular meningioma: Report two cases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nishanth Sadashiva

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Meningioma's occurring intraventricular region are rare and these occurring in the fourth ventricle is even rare. Because of the rarity, it is not usually considered as a differential diagnosis in any age group. Clinical features and Imaging is not characteristic, and most of them are thought to be some different tumor. Here, we discuss two cases harboring a primary fourth ventricular meningioma Grade II, which was surgically excised successfully. Total excision was achieved in both cases and as the tumor was firm to soft and vermian splitting was not required. Understanding the clinical features and a careful preoperative radiological examination is required to differentiate this tumor from more commonly occurring lesions at this location.

PPN-limit of Fourth Order Gravity inspired by Scalar-Tensor Gravity

OpenAIRE

Capozziello, S.; Troisi, A.

2005-01-01

Based on the {\\it dynamical} equivalence between higher order gravity and scalar-tensor gravity the PPN-limit of fourth order gravity is discussed. We exploit this analogy developing a fourth order gravity version of the Eddington PPN-parameters. As a result, Solar System experiments can be reconciled with higher order gravity, if physical constraints descending from experiments are fulfilled.

Cephalometric Assessment of the Fourth Ventricles Using ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

brain. To provide baseline data for measurements of normal fourth ventricle using ... (2001) normally the left ventricle was larger than the right one and both were larger in males among .... Kennedy, D.N., Caviness, Jr, V.S. and Tsuang,.

Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ye. M. Gusev

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

Climate changes instead of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Milan M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

First observation of the fourth neutral polarization point in the atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Horvath, Gabor; Bernath, Balazs; Suhai, Bence; Barta, Andras; Wehner, Rudiger

2002-10-01

In the clear sky there are three commonly known loci, the Arago, Babinet, and Brewster neutral points, where the skylight is unpolarized. These peculiar celestial points, bearing the names of their discoverers, have been the subject of many ground-based investigations, because their positions are sensitive indicators of the amount and type of atmospheric turbidity. According to theoretical considerations and computer simulations, there should exist an additional neutral point approximately opposite to the Babinet point, which can be observed only at higher altitudes in the air or space. Until now, this anonymous fourth neutral point has not been observed during air- or space-borne polarimetric experiments and has been forgotten, in spite of the fact that the neutral points were a basic tool in atmospheric research for a century. Here, we report on the first observation of this fourth neutral point from a hot air balloon. Using 180-field-of-view imaging polarimetry, we could observe the fourth neutral point at 450, 550, and 650 nm from different altitudes between 900 and 3500 m during and after sunrise at approximately 2240 below the anti-solar point along the anti-solar meridian, depending on the wavelength and solar elevation. We show that the fourth neutral point exists at the expected location and has characteristics similar to those of the Arago, Babinet, and Brewster points. We discuss why the fourth neutral point has not been observed in previous air- or space-borne polarimetric experiments. 2002 Optical Society of America

Climate Change in the Seychelles: Implications for Water and Coral Reefs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills [National Meteorological Services Mahe (Seychelles). Div. of Policy, Planning and Services

2006-06-15

The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCm{sup 3} model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.

Thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myung, Yun Soo; Moon, Taeyoon

2014-01-01

We study thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. These include the BTZ black hole in new massive gravity, Schwarzschild-AdS black hole, and higher-dimensional AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. All thermodynamic quantities which are computed using the Abbot-Deser-Tekin method are used to study thermodynamic instability of AdS black holes. On the other hand, we investigate the s-mode Gregory-Laflamme instability of the massive graviton propagating around the AdS black holes. We establish the connection between the thermodynamic instability and the GL instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. This shows that the Gubser-Mitra conjecture holds for AdS black holes found from fourth-order gravity

A Fourth Order Formulation of DDM for Crack Analysis in Brittle Solids

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abolfazl Abdollahipour

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A fourth order formulation of the displacement discontinuity method (DDM is proposed for the crack analysis of brittle solids such as rocks, glasses, concretes and ceramics. A fourth order boundary collocation scheme is used for the discretization of each boundary element (the source element. In this approach, the source boundary element is divided into five sub-elements each recognized by a central node where the displacement discontinuity components are to be numerically evaluated. Three different formulating procedures are presented and their corresponding discretization schemes are discussed. A new discretization scheme is also proposed to use the fourth order formulation for the special crack tip elements which may be used to increase the accuracy of the stress and displacement fields near the crack ends. Therefore, these new crack tips discretizing schemes are also improved by using the proposed fourth order displacement discontinuity formulation and the corresponding shape functions for a bunch of five special crack tip elements. Some example problems in brittle fracture mechanics are solved for estimating the Mode I and Mode II stress intensity factors near the crack ends. These semi-analytical results are compared to those cited in the fracture mechanics literature whereby the high accuracy of the fourth order DDM formulation is demonstrated.

Case series: Endoscopic management of fourth branchial arch anomalies.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, G J; Nichani, J R; Rothera, M P; Bruce, I A

2013-05-01

Fourth branchial arch anomalies represent branchial anomalies and present as recurrent neck infections or suppurative thyroiditis. Traditionally, management has consisted of treatment of the acute infection followed by hemithyroidectomy, surgical excision of the tract and obliteration of the opening in the pyriform fossa. Recently, it has been suggested that endoscopic obliteration of the sinus tract alone using laser, chemo or electrocautery is a viable alternative to open surgery. To determine the results of endoscopic obliteration of fourth branchial arch fistulae in children in our institute. Retrospective case note review of all children undergoing endoscopic treatment of fourth branchial arch anomalies in the last 7 years at the Royal Manchester Children's Hospital. Patient demographics, presenting symptoms, investigations and surgical technique were analysed. The primary and secondary outcome measures were resolution of recurrent infections and incidence of surgical complications, respectively. In total 5 cases were identified (4 females and 1 male) aged between 3 and 12 years. All presented with recurrent left sided neck abscesses. All children underwent a diagnostic laryngo-tracheo-bronchoscopy which identified a sinus in the apex of the left pyriform fossa. This was obliterated using electrocautery in 1 patient, CO₂ laser/Silver Nitrate chemocautery in 2 patients and Silver Nitrate chemocautery in a further 2 patients. There were no complications and no recurrences over a mean follow-up period of 25 months (range 11-41 months). Endoscopic obliteration of pyriform fossa sinus is a safe method for treating fourth branchial arch anomalies with no recurrence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Branchial sinus of the piriform fossa: reappraisal of third and fourth branchial anomalies.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Adrian; Stewart, Craig; Warrick, Paul; Tzifa, Constance; Forte, Vito

2007-11-01

The objective of this study was to review clinical and embryologic aspects of third and fourth branchial anomalies. Retrospective study. We reviewed the institutional and departmental databases at our institution to identify all cases of third and fourth branchial anomalies encountered from 1992 to 2006. All patient records were examined with respect to demographics, clinical history, and radiologic and pathologic reports. We identified 17 cases of third and fourth branchial anomalies, the largest series of its kind reported to date. The lesions were predominantly left sided, all presenting with neck infection. Fistula formation was iatrogenic, secondary to incision and drainage. Preoperative direct laryngoscopy always revealed a pit within the apex of the piriform fossa. Surgical excision involved ipsilateral thyroidectomy as the lesion passed through the thyroid gland. No lesions following the classical course of a either a third or fourth branchial anomaly were identified. The clinical presentation of branchial sinuses arising from the piriform fossa is more in keeping with derivation from the thymopharyngeal duct (of the third pouch) than the hypothetical course of third and fourth branchial fistulae.

The Computer and the Fourth Revolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Molnar, Andrew R.

An overview is provided of the Fourth Revolution, i.e., the revolution which is taking place in education as a result of the introduction of computers into the field. The growth of computing in education, especially in higher education, is traced, and some major National Science Foundation (NSF) programs are mentioned. Following this, a few of the…

Heading for the fourth nuclear age

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levite, A.E.

2009-01-01

The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

2013-01-01

We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

The Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. Fourth quarter, 1989

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1989-12-31

The Environmental Monitoring Section of the Environmental and Health Protection (EHP) Department administers the Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. During fourth quarter 1989 (October--December), EHP conducted routine sampling of monitoring wells and drinking water locations. EHP collected the drinking water samples from Savannah River Site (SRS) drinking water systems supplied by wells. EHP established two sets of flagging criteria in 1986 to assist in the management of sample results. The flagging criteria aid personnel in sample scheduling, interpretation of data, and trend identification. An explanation of flagging criteria for the fourth quarter is presented in the Flagging Criteria section of this document. All analytical results from fourth quarter 1989 are listed in this report, which is distributed to all waste-site custodians.

Can the Ethics of the Fourth Estate Persevere in a Global Age?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Ejvind

2014-01-01

”. Traditionally the ideals of journalists have been articulated in close affiliation with ideas of the Fourth Estate. However, due to our globalised communicative structure, this articulation is in need of revision. I argue that the ethical requests change because the structure of Internet-based publics changes....... Departing from this situation I suggest that journalistic products are ethically urgent insofar as they both bring communities together and give voice to the inarticulate or voiceless. I argue that in order to substantiate this approach it is important to articulate rules, because rules further......Due to the development of transnational communicative and economic structures, nation states are increasingly unable to be the starting point for journalistic regulation. In this chapter, therefore, I raise the question whether it is possible – and desirable – to have transnational rules...

Report of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable

OpenAIRE

Michael F. Bryan; John B. Martin

1994-01-01

A summary of the 1994 forecasts for real output and inflation presented by 15 members of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable at their January 1994 meeting, highlighting the measurement of service sector prices and the role of small businesses in creating jobs.

The value of fourth-party logistics services in the humanitarian supply chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abidi, H.; de Leeuw, S.L.J.M.; Klumpp, M.

2015-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the value of fourth-party logistics (4PL) services in a humanitarian supply chain. Furthermore, it shows a framework for a fourth-party humanitarian logistics concept. Design/methodology/approach – The research paper presents a framework of

Fourth-Order Spatial Correlation of Thermal Light

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wen Feng; Zhang Xun; Sun Jia; Song Jian-Ping; Zhang Yan-Peng; Xue Xin-Xin

2014-01-01

We investigate the fourth-order spatial correlation properties of pseudo-thermal light in the photon counting regime, and apply the Klyshko advanced-wave picture to describe the process of four-photon coincidence counting measurement. We deduce the theory of a proof-of-principle four-photon coincidence counting configuration, and find that if the four randomly radiated photons come from the same radiation area and are indistinguishable in principle, the fourth-order correlation of them is 24 times larger than that when four photons come from different radiation areas. In addition, we also show that the higher-order spatial correlation function can be decomposed into multiple lower-order correlation functions, and the contrast and visibility of low-order correlation peaks are less than those of higher orders, while the resolutions all are identical. This study may be useful for better understanding the four-photon interference and multi-channel correlation imaging

Solar Energy Technologies Program Newsletter - Fourth Quarter 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

2009-12-31

The Fourth Quarter 2009 edition of the Solar Energy Technologies Program newsletter summarizes the activities for the past three months, funding opportunities, highlights from the national labs, and upcoming events.

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Jae Young

2015-01-01

Highlights: • CH 4 /CO 2 and CH 4 + CO 2 % are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH 4 /CO 2 > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH 4 produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH 4 /CO 2 ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH 4 + CO 2 % in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Sangjae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Anwoo [Korea Environment Corporation, 42 Hwangyeong-ro, Seo-gu, Incheon 404-170 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Seung-Muk [Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Young, E-mail: jaeykim@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-02-15

Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.

Climate change - the contribution from air travel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beesley, Colin

2000-01-01

The paper discusses the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (published in 1999). It was considered necessary to treat air transport on its own since aircraft are unique in delivering emissions into the upper atmosphere rather than at ground level. The study was commissioned at the request of the International Civil Aviation Organisation and the Montreal Protocol. More than 300 experts contributed and the report has quantified the effect of aviation on the atmosphere on a world wide basis and highlighted areas where improved data are required. (UK)

The Contribution of Executive Functions to Narrative Writing in Fourth Grade Children

Science.gov (United States)

Drijbooms, Elise; Groen, Margriet A.; Verhoeven, Ludo

2015-01-01

The present study investigated the contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children, and evaluated to what extent executive functions contribute differentially to different levels of narrative composition. The written skills of 102 Dutch children in fourth grade were assessed using a narrative picture-elicitation…

A 10-days heatwave around flowering superimposed on climate change conditions significantly affects production of 22 barley accessions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Lyngkjær, Michael F.; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo

2015-01-01

Extreme climate events as heatwaves, floods and storms cause acute changes in season variability influencing primary production and are very likely to increase in magnitude and/or frequency (IPCC, AR5, WGI). In the present study 22 primarily Nordic barley accessions were grown in four basic clima...... climate change conditions on numerous accessions in order to select appropriate genotypes for breeding future cultivars that can secure the primary production....

Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Roger

2007-01-01

Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

zimbabwean fourth social workers conference and winter school

African Journals Online (AJOL)

cswserver

commercial 4.0 International License. ZIMBABWEAN FOURTH SOCIAL WORKERS CONFERENCE AND WINTER. SCHOOL. Noah Mudenda. The Council of Social Workers (CSW or Council) was established under the Social Workers Act 27:21 ...

SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

Fourth Branchial Anomaly Presenting with a Lateral Neck Mass in a Neonate

OpenAIRE

Yoo, Tae-Kyung; Kim, Soo-Hong; Kim, Ha-Shin; Kim, Hyun-Young; Park, Kwi-Won

2014-01-01

Branchial cleft anomalies are an important differential diagnosis in congenital neck masses in infants. The third and fourth branchial anomalies are rare branchial cleft anomalies, which are hard to differentiate. We report here an uncommon case of the fourth branchial anomaly that was presented as an asymptomatic neck mass in a neonate.

Fourth branchial anomaly presenting with a lateral neck mass in a neonate.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Tae-Kyung; Kim, Soo-Hong; Kim, Ha-Shin; Kim, Hyun-Young; Park, Kwi-Won

2014-01-01

Branchial cleft anomalies are an important differential diagnosis in congenital neck masses in infants. The third and fourth branchial anomalies are rare branchial cleft anomalies, which are hard to differentiate. We report here an uncommon case of the fourth branchial anomaly that was presented as an asymptomatic neck mass in a neonate.

Patronage and clientelism in the fourth gospel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abiola Mbamalu

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Patronage and clientelism as a social-scientific model is used in this article to read the fourth gospel. It is the contention of the article that this model affords the reader fresh vistas of meaning that otherwise would have remained unexplored. It is a reading amongst other readings and does not make pretensions to illuminate every segment of the fourth gospel. Rather, it selectively looks at areas where reading against the backdrop of a patron-client model illuminates the text. This reading sheds light on the greatest gift Jesus came to give, the gift of life as a beneficium, and affirms that the signs that Jesus performed are commendationes. Jesus brokers the blessings of the kingdom to those who believe in him on behalf of the father who is the ultimate patron. Jesus also challenges popular notions of patronage by performing acts reserved for slaves by, for example, washing the feet of his disciples.

Equity in Adaptation to Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gemenne, F.

2009-01-01

Most observers agree that equity has become a key condition for the success of a global agreement on climate, and that any deal that would seem inequitable would be doomed to fail. The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) makes a distinction between developed countries, developing countries, and least advanced countries; as well as between vulnerable countries and particularly vulnerable countries. The first distinction has to do with equity in mitigation efforts, whereas the latter is concerned with equity in the allocation of adaptation funding (Mace 2006). Adaptation itself is poorly defined: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) does not go further than defining it as the adjustment of human or natural systems confronted to a new or changing environment (IPCC 2007). It took a very long time for adaptation to be acknowledged as a key aspect of the fight against global warming. Funding mechanisms were long overdue when they were finally implemented, and remain heavily discussed. A sufficient amount of funding for adaptation appears today as the sine qua non condition for the participation of developing countries to a global deal on climate. This amount has been estimated at US$ 100 billion at least on a yearly basis, including support for mitigation efforts. However, though equity concerns have been placed at the core of the negotiation on mitigation efforts, they have been little addressed in the discussions on adaptation. As a result of this, the criteria that will be used to allocate the adaptation funding remain unclear and vague, which could be detrimental for the negotiation process as a whole. This paper aims to offer a new perspective on this issue, departing from the traditional perspective inspired by retributive justice. (author)

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

Science.gov (United States)

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-01-01

Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

Man-made climate change: an overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holopainen, E [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1996-12-31

The first major man-made environmental problem was the soil acidification, caused primarily by the massive industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Then came the problem of ozone depletion, caused by the emissions of man-made halocarbons. More recently, the possibility of man-made climate change has received a lot of attention. These three man-made problems are interconnected in fundamental ways and require for their solution interdisciplinary and international approach. Narrowing of the scientific uncertainties connected with the problems mentioned above can be expected through international `Global Change` programmes such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Periodic assessments of the type produced by the IPCC will clearly be needed. Also in the future such assessments should form the scientific basis for international negotiations and conventions on the climate change issue

Man-made climate change: an overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holopainen, E. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Meteorology

1995-12-31

The first major man-made environmental problem was the soil acidification, caused primarily by the massive industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide. Then came the problem of ozone depletion, caused by the emissions of man-made halocarbons. More recently, the possibility of man-made climate change has received a lot of attention. These three man-made problems are interconnected in fundamental ways and require for their solution interdisciplinary and international approach. Narrowing of the scientific uncertainties connected with the problems mentioned above can be expected through international `Global Change` programmes such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). Periodic assessments of the type produced by the IPCC will clearly be needed. Also in the future such assessments should form the scientific basis for international negotiations and conventions on the climate change issue

The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

2009-09-01

The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

The radiation protection research within the fourth Framework Program of the European Union (1994-1998)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siunaeve, J.; Mingot, F.; Arranz, L.; Cancio, D.

1995-01-01

The next research program on Radiation Protection within the Fourth Framework Program of the European Union has been approved by the Council last December (O.I.N L 361, 12/31/94). The program includes important changes in its structure as well as in the way for implementation in Europe. The most important change is that the main activities concerning Nuclear Safety, Waste Management and Radiation Protection have been included in a single program called Nuclear Fission Safety. The program also includes specific work with CIS countries for the management of Chernobyl consequences as well as other significative contaminations in other areas of the former Soviet Union. (Author)

Fourth international conference on Networks & Communications

CERN Document Server

Meghanathan, Natarajan; Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom)

2013-01-01

Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom) is the proceedings from the Fourth International Conference on Networks & Communications. This book covers theory, methodology and applications of computer networks, network protocols and wireless networks, data communication technologies, and network security. The proceedings will feature peer-reviewed papers that illustrate research results, projects, surveys and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in the diverse areas of computer networks & communications.

China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun Gao

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of win–win cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability; a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice; and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

China's response to climate change issues after Paris Climate Change Conference

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Yun

2016-01-01

The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfully concluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a milestone for the world in collectively combating climate change. By participating in IPCC assessments and conducting national climate change assessments, China has been increasing its understanding of the issue. For the first time, China's top leader attended the Conference of the Parties, which indicates the acknowledgement of the rationality and necessity of climate change response by China at different levels. Moreover, this participation reflects China's commitment to including climate change in its ecology improvement program and pursuing a low-carbon society and economy. In order to ensure the success of the Paris Conference, China has contributed significantly. China's constructive participation in global governance shows that China is a responsible power. These principles such as the creation of a future of winewin cooperation with each country contributing to the best of its ability;a future of the rule of law, fairness, and justice;and a future of inclusiveness, mutual learning, and common development will serve as China's guidelines in its efforts to facilitate the implementation of the Paris Agreement and participate in the design of international systems.

Natural science textbooks for the fourth grade and their text difficulty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Libuše Hrabí

2012-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents findings regarding an assessment of the difficulty of text in six current Czech natural science textbooks for the fourth grade. The textual analysis was carried out according to a modified Průcha method. The results indicate that textual difficulty varies in the textbooks examined (19 - 31 points. Textbooks published by the Alter, Fortuna and SPN publishing companies are suitable for teaching in the fourth grade.

Modelling and mapping climate change adaptability in the historic tourism region of the Salzkammergut in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Stefan; Lang, Stefan; Pernkopf, Lena

2017-04-01

actual salt production site, some 800 km2 in size [Geuter 1913], it is now self-defined [Kurz 2006] as a magnet for tourism still steadily growing by attendance of municipalities on its northern fringe (2008: 54 municipalities, 2013: 59). The region is exemplarily for comparable regions in Austria or the Alps in terms of national/regional and transnational (UNFCCC) climate change adaptation strategies towards local/regional transfer and adjustment. Adaption remains an ambitious, cross-cutting issue with a range of societal areas and policy domains involved and to be integrated. The set of indicators to be chosen depends on the focus of the adaptation strategy. Here we focus on tourism, because it is of paramount importance for the well-being of the region from an economic point of view, but also from the perspective of sustainability and conservation of the historic heritage. In order to model the adaptive behaviour towards tourism, we work with the following twelve indicators: (1) bathing lakes / (2) skiing resorts, (4) connection to public transport, (10) bicycle ways, (5) average number of summer days / (6) heat days / (7) freezing days / (11) rain days, (8) temperature raise, (3) elevation a.s.l. / (9) slope, (12) cultural heritage. Using standardisation, we regionalise the set of indicators achieving a set of units that represent areas of uniform adaption behaviour, scaled to the policy scale and revealing in a spatial explicit manner the aggregated adaptability in terms of their potential to sustain tourism. The approach can be applied also to other transformative, yet strongly CC-affected mountain areas with a similar setting regarding their climate change adaptation potential. REFERENCES Folke, C. (2006) Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16, pp. 253-267. Geuter, K. P. (1913) Illustrierter Führer durch das Salzkammergut und Salzburg mit Umgebung, Linz. IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment

Cultural Literacy of Fourth-Year Medical Students.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Charles R.

1988-01-01

A survey of fourth-year students in obstetrics at one medical school confirmed the absence of a liberal undergraduate education and indicated their failure to acquire cultural knowledge during their premedical and medical education. Knowledge deficits extended beyond the humanities to nonmedical sciences and the history and philosophy of medicine.…

Foreword The fourth International Conference on Gravitation and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The fourth International Conference on Gravitation and Cosmology (ICGC ... acknowledge the hard work put up by faculty members and students here at IIT, Kharagpur and, in particular, by Akhilesh Singh, without whom much of our success ...

Aspects That Arise in the Transition from the Montessori Method to a Traditional Method: A Fourth Grade Mathematics View

Science.gov (United States)

Hurdle, Zachariah B.

2017-01-01

The purpose of the dissertation is to investigate three particular aspects that may affect the transition between a third grade Montessori system and a fourth grade non-Montessori system, specifically within the context of teaching and learning mathematics. These aspects are 1) the change in pacing and structure of the classroom, 2) the removal of…

Heading for the fourth nuclear age

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levite, A.E.

2009-07-01

The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

Masses and decay constants of bound states containing fourth family quarks from QCD sum rules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashiry, V.; Azizi, K.; Sultansoy, S.

2011-01-01

The heavy fourth generation of quarks that have sufficiently small mixing with the three known standard model families form hadrons. In the present work, we calculate the masses and decay constants of mesons containing either both quarks from the fourth generation or one from the fourth family and the other from known third family standard model quarks in the framework of the QCD sum rules. In the calculations, we take into account two-gluon condensate diagrams as nonperturbative contributions. The obtained results reduce to the known masses and decay constants of the bb and cc quarkonia when the fourth family quark is replaced by the bottom or charm quark.

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Q.-B.

2014-04-01

In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850-1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that

Electroencephalography in ellipsoidal geometry with fourth-order harmonics.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcocer-Sosa, M; Gutierrez, D

2016-08-01

We present a solution to the electroencephalographs (EEG) forward problem of computing the scalp electric potentials for the case when the head's geometry is modeled using a four-shell ellipsoidal geometry and the brain sources with an equivalent current dipole (ECD). The proposed solution includes terms up to the fourth-order ellipsoidal harmonics and we compare this new approximation against those that only considered up to second- and third-order harmonics. Our comparisons use as reference a solution in which a tessellated volume approximates the head and the forward problem is solved through the boundary element method (BEM). We also assess the solution to the inverse problem of estimating the magnitude of an ECD through different harmonic approximations. Our results show that the fourth-order solution provides a better estimate of the ECD in comparison to lesser order ones.

The Fourth Revolution in Teaching: Meta-Analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Kulik, James A.

Three major educational revolutions have been the advent of writing, the use of books as teaching tools, and the shift in educational responsibility from the home to the school. The fourth revolution, which is based on the use of electronic technology in teaching, began with programmed teaching machines, individualized instruction, and the…

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible...... changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian...... Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa....

A fourth order spline collocation approach for a business cycle model

Science.gov (United States)

Sayfy, A.; Khoury, S.; Ibdah, H.

2013-10-01

A collocation approach, based on a fourth order cubic B-splines is presented for the numerical solution of a Kaleckian business cycle model formulated by a nonlinear delay differential equation. The equation is approximated and the nonlinearity is handled by employing an iterative scheme arising from Newton's method. It is shown that the model exhibits a conditionally dynamical stable cycle. The fourth-order rate of convergence of the scheme is verified numerically for different special cases.

Quasipotential in the fourth order of perturbation theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bojkova, N.A.; Dvoeglazov, V.V.; Tyukhtyaev, Yu.N.; Faustov, R.N.

1992-01-01

The quasipotential in the fourth order of perturbation theory is calculated in the Coulomb gauge for the unequal mass particles. It could be used for the future calculations of energy spectra in two-body systems. 15 refs.; 1 fig

The fourth Board of Governors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1961-01-01

The General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency at its fourth regular session, which was held in Vienna from 20 September to 1 October 1960, elected five Member States to serve a two-year term on the Agency's Board of Governors. The five were Argentina, El Salvador, the Federal Republic of Germany, Iraq and Thailand. The new members succeed Indonesia, the Netherlands, Peru, the United Arab Republic and Venezuela, which were elected for a two-year term by the second session of the General Conference in 1958

Effect of a magnetic field on fourth sound in 3He

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, K.

1988-01-01

The influence of a magnetic field on the propagation of fourth sound in superfluid 3 He is studied. The field and temperature dependences of the average superfluid density /anti rho//sub s///rho/ and fourth sound Q are measured. The field dependence of /anti rho//sub s///rho/ is very different in a porous medium than predicted by Ginzburg-Landau theory applied to bulk liquid. In particular, a magnetic suppression of /anti rho//sub s///rho/ is observed in the temperature and pressure ranges corresponding to the A phase in bulk liquid. There is strong evidence of a magnetic suppression of T/sub c/ itself. The measured /anti rho//sub s///rho/ has a slight history dependence in a magnetic field, but none in zero field. The fourth-sound Q values are compared to the theoretical work of Smith, Jensen, and Wolfle. Quantitative confirmation of their work is problematic

76 FR 37646 - Safety Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Fourth of July Fireworks, City of...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-28

... Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Fourth of July Fireworks, City of Sausalito... Guard will enforce the Fourth of July Fireworks, City of Sausalito annual safety zone. This action is... for the annual Fourth of July Fireworks, City of Sausalito, safety zone in 33 CFR 165.1191 on July 4...

Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert Stockwell, PhD

2010-09-23

concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).

Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

Science.gov (United States)

Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

2008-01-01

In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

Search for the fourth standard model family fermions and E6 quarks at μ+μ- colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ciftci, A.K.; Ciftci, R.; Sultansoy, S.

2002-01-01

The potential of μ + μ - colliders to investigate the fourth standard model family fermions predicted by flavor democracy is analyzed. It is shown that muon colliders are advantageous for both pair production of fourth family fermions and resonance production of fourth family quarkonia. Also, isosinglet quark production at μ + μ - colliders is investigated

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Nyenzi

2006-01-01

Full Text Available It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001. How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001 assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001. However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, in preparations suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability

Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sailor, David J.; Smith, Michael; Hart, Melissa

2008-01-01

Using statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs), we have investigated scenarios of climate change impacts on wind power generation potential in a five-state region within the Northwest United States (Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming). All GCM simulations were extracted from the standardized set of runs created for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Analysis of model runs for the 20th century (20c3m) simulations revealed that the direct output of wind statistics from these models is of relatively poor quality compared with observations at airport weather stations within each state. When the GCM output was statistically downscaled, the resulting estimates of current climate wind statistics are substantially better. Furthermore, in looking at the GCM wind statistics for two IPCC future climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES A1B and A2), there was significant disagreement in the direct model output from the four GCMs. When statistical downscaling was applied to the future climate simulations, a more coherent story unfolded related to the likely impact of climate change on the region's wind power resource. Specifically, the results suggest that summertime wind speeds in the Northwest may decrease by 5-10%, while wintertime wind speeds may decrease by relatively little, or possibly increase slightly. When these wind statistics are projected to typical turbine hub heights and nominal wind turbine power curves are applied, the impact of the climate change scenarios on wind power may be as high as a 40% reduction in summertime generation potential. (author)

On the analytic solution of the steady flow of a fourth grade fluid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sajid, M.; Hayat, T.; Asghar, S.

2006-01-01

The steady flow of a fourth grade fluid is a problem belonging to non-Newtonian fluid mechanics and deserves to be more widely studied than it has been to date. In the non-linear regime the literature is scarce. We develop a formulation suitable for solution of hydrodynamic equation containing non-linear rheological effects of fourth grade fluids. The homotopy analysis method (HAM) is used to investigate the flow of a fourth grade fluid past a porous plate. Explicit analytic solution is given. The non-linear effects on the velocity distribution is shown and discussed. Comparison of the present analysis is also made with the existing results in the literature

Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Den Elzen, M.

1993-01-01

Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

78 FR 39597 - Safety Zone; Hilton Fourth of July Fireworks, San Joaquin River, Venice Island, CA

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-02

... Zone; Hilton Fourth of July Fireworks, San Joaquin River, Venice Island, CA AGENCY: Coast Guard, DHS... the Hilton Fourth of July Fireworks in the Captain of the Port, San Francisco area of responsibility...'' W (NAD83) for the Hilton Fourth of July Fireworks in 33 CFR 165.1191, Table 1, Item number 17. This...

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanderson Bucker Moraes

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2 focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Constraints on a fourth generation of fermions from Higgs Boson searches

CERN Document Server

Lenz, Alexander

2013-01-01

We review the past and current status of the extension of the standard model (SM) by a fourth generation of fermions. In particular the new results for Higgs boson searches at the LHC and at Tevatron exclude the possibility of having simply a perturbative fourth generation of fermions with one Higgs doublet (SM4). We also briefly mention more complicated extensions of the SM4, which are not yet excluded, like adding in addition another Higgs doublet to the SM4.

Block Hybrid Collocation Method with Application to Fourth Order Differential Equations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Ken Yap

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The block hybrid collocation method with three off-step points is proposed for the direct solution of fourth order ordinary differential equations. The interpolation and collocation techniques are applied on basic polynomial to generate the main and additional methods. These methods are implemented in block form to obtain the approximation at seven points simultaneously. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the method. The method is also applied to solve the fourth order problem from ship dynamics.

75 FR 33824 - Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates, Fourth Review: Advice Concerning the Addition...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-15

... INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION [Investigation No. 332-520] Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates, Fourth Review: Advice Concerning the Addition of Certain Products to the Pharmaceutical Appendix..., Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates, Fourth Review: Advice Concerning the Addition of Certain...

7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Karen K.Y.Shum

2010-01-01

@@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

Trend chart: wind power. Fourth quarter 2017

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreau, Sylvain

2018-02-01

This publication presents the wind energy situation of continental France and overseas territories during the fourth quarter 2017: total connected load, new connected facilities, regional distribution of wind power production, evolution of quarterly production, distribution of facilities versus power, evolution forecasts of the French wind power park, projects in progress, detailed regional results, revision of results

Fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary-value problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maciej Leszczynski

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In this article we consider the fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary value problem with both advance and retardation. We apply the direct method of the calculus of variations and the mountain pass technique to prove the existence of at least one and at least two solutions. Non-existence of non-trivial solutions is also undertaken.

Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-07-01

This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

Assessment of long-term effects of climate change on biodiversity and vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oene, H.; Berendse, F.; De Kovel, C.G.F. [Nature Consevation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen (Netherlands); Alkemade, J.R.M.; Bakkenes, M.; Ihle, F. [National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1999-07-01

The aim of this project was to analyze the effects of climatic change on plant species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The direct effects of climatic change on plant species diversity are analyzed using a species based probabilistic Model (EUROMOVE) that relates the probability of occurrence of ca 1400 European plant species to climatic variables as the mean temperature of the coldest month, the effective temperature sum, the annual precipitation, the annual potential and actual evapotranspiration, the length of the growing season, and the mean growing season temperature. The indirect effects of raised C0{sub 2} levels and increased temperatures on ecosystem functioning and the consequences of these indirect effects for plant diversity are analyzed by combining a mechanistic simulation model (NUCOM) with regression models. NUCOM predicts the effects of environmental changes on dominant plant species composition and ecosystem variables. The predicted ecosystem variables are linked to plant species diversity of subordinate species by regression models, using Ellenberg indices for N availability, soil acidity, soil moisture, and light intensity. With these two approaches, the consequences of climatic change scenarios (IPCC Baseline A, IPCC Stabilization 450) and N deposition scenarios (reduced, constant) are analyzed for Europe (EUROMOVE) and part of the Netherlands (NUCOM). The results showed that the direct effects of climatic change may have large impact on plant species diversity and distribution. The indirect effects of climatic change on plant diversity appeared minor but effects of changes in soil moisture are not included. Other environmental changes like eutrofication and human impact have large effect on ecosystem variables and plant species diversity. Reductions in nitrogen emission have a positive effect but take time to become apparent. 49 refs.

First, second and fourth sound in relativistic superfluidity theory with account for dissipative effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vyil'chins'kij, S.Yi.

1993-01-01

The equations describing the propagation of the first, second and fourth sound in the relativistic theory of superfluidity are derived with account for dissipation. The expressions for the velocity of the first, second and fourth sound are obtained. (author). 4 refs

Energy and Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-06-15

Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

Seasonal Changes of Precipitation and Temperature of Mountainous Watersheds in Future Periods with Approach of Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Case study: Kashafrood Watershed Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Hydrology cycle of river basins and water resources availability in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes, so that recently the increase of temperature due to the increase of greenhouse gases have led to anomaly in the Earth’ climate system. At present, General Circulation Models (GCMs are the most frequently used models for projection of different climatic change scenarios. Up to now, IPCC has released four different versions of GCM models, including First Assessment Report models (FAR in 1990, Second Assessment Report models (SAR in 1996, Third Assessment Report models (TAR in 2001 and Fourth Assessment Report models (AR4 in 2007. In 2011, new generation of GCM, known as phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 released which it has been actively participated in the preparation of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC fifth Assessment report (AR5. A set of experiments such as simulations of 20th and projections of 21st century climate under the new emission scenarios (so called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs are included in CMIP5. Iran is a country that located in arid and semi-arid climates mostly characterized by low rainfall and high temperature. Anomalies in precipitation and temperature in Iran play a significant role in this agricultural and quickly developing country. Growing population, extensive urbanization and rapid economic development shows that Iran faces intensive challenges in available water resources at present and especially in the future. The first purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal trends of future climate components over the Kashafrood Watershed Basin (KWB located in the northeastern part of Iran and in the Khorsan-e Razavi province using fifth report of Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC under new emission scenarios with Mann-Kendall (MK test. Mann-Kendall is one of the most commonly used nonparametric

Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, B.; Zeng, N.; Yoon, J.-H.

2010-05-01

Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May-September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10-15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which

Improving the reliability of fishery predictions under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2015-01-01

The increasing number of publications assessing impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries attests to rising scientific and public interest. A selection of recent papers, dealing more with biological than social and economic aspects, is reviewed here, with particular attention...... to the reliability of projections of climate impacts on future fishery yields. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report expresses high confidence in projections that mid- and high-latitude fish catch potential will increase by 2050 and medium confidence that low-latitude catch potential...... understanding of climate impacts, such as how to improve coupled models from physics to fish and how to strengthen confidence in analysis of time series...

Climate change and critical thresholds in China's food security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiong, Wei; Lin, Erda; Ju, Hui; Xu, Yinlong

2007-01-01

Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered

The fourth dimension simply explained

CERN Document Server

Manning, Henry P

2005-01-01

To remove the contents of an egg without puncturing its shell or to drink the liquor in a bottle without removing the cork is clearly unthinkable - or is it? Understanding the world of Einstein and curved space requires a logical conception of the fourth dimension.This readable, informative volume provides an excellent introduction to that world, with 22 essays that employ a minimum of mathematics. Originally written for a contest sponsored by Scientific American, these essays are so well reasoned and lucidly written that they were judged to merit publication in book form. Their easily unders

Sea level change

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

SEIZURE PREDICTION: THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

Science.gov (United States)

Zaveri, Hitten P.; Frei, Mark G.; Arthurs, Susan; Osorio, Ivan

2010-01-01

The recently convened Fourth International Workshop on Seizure Prediction (IWSP4) brought together a diverse international group of investigators, from academia and industry, including epileptologists, neurosurgeons, neuroscientists, computer scientists, engineers, physicists, and mathematicians who are conducting interdisciplinary research on the prediction and control of seizures. IWSP4 allowed the presentation and discussion of results, an exchange of ideas, an assessment of the status of seizure prediction, control and related fields and the fostering of collaborative projects. PMID:20674508

Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

KAUST Repository

Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

Science.gov (United States)

Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

Thymic cyst: a fourth branchial cleft anomaly.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayan, Smriti; MacLean, Jonathan; Sommer, Doron

2010-01-01

We report a unique case of a fourth branchial cleft cyst found within the thymus of an adult patient. In the literature to date, there have been no reports of such a finding in the adult population. These anomalies can often cause recurrent acute suppurative thyroiditis or recurrent deep neck abscesses. Delay in recognizing the underlying etiology can lead to significant complications.

Scalar-tensor theory of fourth-order gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Accioly, A.J.; Goncalves, A.T.

1986-04-01

A scalar-tensor theory of fourth-order gravity is considered. Some cosmological consequences, due to the presence of the scalar field, as well as of metric derivatives higher than second order, are analysed. In particular, upperbpunds are obtained for the coupling constant α and for the scale factor of the universe, respectively. The discussion is restricted to Robertson-Walker universes. (Author) [pt

Climate change and ecosystem services: The contribution of and impacts on federal public lands in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Valerie Esposito; Spencer Phillips; Roelof Boumans; Azur Moulaert; Jennifer Boggs

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) reports a likely 2 °C to 4.5 °C temperature rise in the upcoming decades. This warming is likely to affect ecosystems and their ability to provide services that benefit human well-being. Ecosystem services valuation (ESV), meanwhile, has emerged as a way to recognize the economic value embodied in these...

A critical analysis of the 2014 IPCC report on capital cost of mitigation and of renewable energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trainer, Ted

2017-01-01

The Report by the IPCC Working Group 3 on mitigation has been widely reported as showing that a 430 – 480 ppm emissions target can be achieved at a low investment cost in relation to GDP. However there are several reasons why the Report cannot be regarded as having established these claims, mainly to do with the very few sources referred to on the crucial cost issues, the problems evident in those sources, and difficulties encountered when investment sums allocated to various sectors are examined. An exploration of the possible investment required by the renewable energy sector indicates that the costs associated with achieving desired emissions targets would be very high. This strengthens the case that effective policies for dealing with climate and other global problems cannot be achieved unless there is transition from consumer societies committed to affluence and growth. - Highlights: • The logic and structure of the Report re clarified. • Only five pages in Chapter 16 deal with renewable system cost estimates. • The core conclusions are based on only about three references. • These studies are open to fundamental criticism. • An alternative approach indicates higher system costs than the Report claims.

Local government and intergovernmental relations in Nigeria fourth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The study adopts secondary source of data collection. ... The study reveals that intergovernmental relations among the levels of government in the fourth republic has been in disarray due to the conflicts arisen over issues of tax jurisdiction, revenue allocation, intergovernmental relations fund transfers, overconcentration of ...

Investing in self-reliance: IDRC's fourth annual public meeting ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-04-15

Apr 15, 2016 ... Investing in self-reliance: IDRC's fourth annual public meeting ... to advance the Government of Canada's priorities in international development, in areas ... Flexible intellectual property rights lead to greater innovation in Africa.

Fourth Generation Warfare: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Benton, LeRoy D

2008-01-01

.... A definition of Fourth Generation Warfare is developed, based on Col. Thomas X. Hammes' writings. The definition is further developed to show relevance and applicability to current operations in the Long War on Terrorism...

Evaluation of ivermectin against later fourth-stage Strongylus vulgaris in ponies at two and five weeks after treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Slocombe, J O; McCraw, B M

1984-10-01

The efficacy of ivermectin against later fourth-stage Strongylus vulgaris larvae was studied in pony foals at 14 and 35 days after treatment. These foals had been reared parasite-free, inoculated with 500 infective larvae and 56 days later given either ivermectin at 200 micrograms/kg or a placebo intramuscularly. At necropsy, foals were examined for lesions and larvae grossly and histologically. Ivermectin was found to be highly effective (98.6%) against later fourth-stage larvae in five foals which were examined at 35 days after treatment, but not in five others examined at 14 days (72.5%). In some foals larvae were found in the tunica media of the ileocolic arteries. The conformation of these larvae appeared normal, but there were degenerative changes which suggested that they were dying or dead. Questions as to how the larvae attained that site and the consequences of their presence there were raised.

Acute intestinal anisakiasis in Spain: a fourth-stage Anisakis simplex larva

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mª José Rosales

1999-11-01

Full Text Available A case of acute intestinal anisakiasis has been reported; a nematode larva being found in the submucosa of the ileum of a woman in Jaén (Spain. The source of infection was the ingestion of raw Engraulis encrasicholus. On the basis of its morphology, the worm has been identified as a fourth-stage larva of Anisakis simplex. In Spain, this is the ninth report of human anisakiasis and also probably the first case of anisakiasis caused by a fourth-stage larva of A. simplex.

Pseudospectral collocation methods for fourth order differential equations

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Alaeddin; Phillips, Timothy N.

1994-01-01

Collocation schemes are presented for solving linear fourth order differential equations in one and two dimensions. The variational formulation of the model fourth order problem is discretized by approximating the integrals by a Gaussian quadrature rule generalized to include the values of the derivative of the integrand at the boundary points. Collocation schemes are derived which are equivalent to this discrete variational problem. An efficient preconditioner based on a low-order finite difference approximation to the same differential operator is presented. The corresponding multidomain problem is also considered and interface conditions are derived. Pseudospectral approximations which are C1 continuous at the interfaces are used in each subdomain to approximate the solution. The approximations are also shown to be C3 continuous at the interfaces asymptotically. A complete analysis of the collocation scheme for the multidomain problem is provided. The extension of the method to the biharmonic equation in two dimensions is discussed and results are presented for a problem defined in a nonrectangular domain.

76 FR 37646 - Safety Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Fourth of July Fireworks, Lake Tahoe, CA

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-28

... Zone; Northern California Annual Fireworks Events, Fourth of July Fireworks, Lake Tahoe, CA AGENCY... annual safety zone for the Fourth of July Fireworks, Lake Tahoe, California, located off Incline Village...,000 foot safety zone for the annual Fourth of July Fireworks Display in 33 CFR 165.1191 on July 4...

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-02-27

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

Science.gov (United States)

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Building a global federation system for climate change research: the earth system grid center for enabling technologies (ESG-CET)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ananthakrishnan, R; Bernholdt, D E; Bharathi, S; Brown, D; Chen, M; Chervenak, A L; Cinquini, L; Drach, R; Foster, I T; Fox, P; Fraser, D; Halliday, K; Hankin, S; Jones, P; Kesselman, C; Middleton, D E; Schwidder, J; Schweitzer, R; Schuler, R; Shoshani, A; Siebenlist, F; Sim, A; Strand, W G; Wilhelmi, N; Su, M; Williams, D N

2007-01-01

The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the US role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading US climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 180 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 250 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single sign-on of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide

Fourth Order Nonlinear Intensity and the corresponding Refractive ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nonlinear effects occur whenever the optical fields associated with one or more intense light such as from laser beams propagating in a crystal are large enough to produce polarization fields. This paper describes how the fourth order nonlinear intensity and the corresponding effective refractive index that is intensity ...

Oscillation criteria for fourth-order nonlinear delay dynamic equations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunsong Qi

2013-03-01

Full Text Available We obtain criteria for the oscillation of all solutions to a fourth-order nonlinear delay dynamic equation on a time scale that is unbounded from above. The results obtained are illustrated with examples

Turn left for Murmansk: ‘Fourth World’ transculturalism and its cultural ecological framing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Dillon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we review briefly histories and ideologies underlying multiculturalism in Nordic countries, highlighting tensions between integrationist and inclusive approaches. We propose a cultural ecological framework through which we discuss the possibility of a transculturalism based on Fourth World engagement with the environment. Cultural ecology is about the reciprocal interactions and transactions between people and their environments. The Fourth World is a circum-global, pan-arctic region which includes the northern parts of some Nordic countries. We argue that whether or not there is a distinctively Nordic version of multiculturalism, Nordic countries have access to Fourth World ways of engaging with the environment which transcend notions of inter- and multiculturalism and the ideological tensions associated with them.

Extrinsic Motivators Affecting Fourth-Grade Students' Interest and Enrollment in an Instrumental Music Program

Science.gov (United States)

Vasil, Martina

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate fourth-grade students' extrinsic motivators for joining and continuing in a school instrumental music program. Three research questions were investigated: (a) What extrinsic motivators have influenced fourth-grade students' initial interest and continuing participation in an instrumental music program?…

Neuroradiological findings and clinical features of fourth-ventricular meningioma: A study of 10 cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, B.-Y.; Yin, B.; Li, Y.-X.; Wu, J.-S.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.-Q.; Geng Daoyng

2012-01-01

Aim: To present the neuroradiological and clinical findings of fourth-ventricular meningiomas to increase awareness of this entity. Materials and methods: The computed tomography (CT; n = 5), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; n = 9) features and clinical presentations of 10 patients with pathologically documented fourth-ventricular meningiomas were retrospectively analysed. Results: All tumours appeared as well-demarcated masses in the fourth ventricle at CT and MRI. The tumour shape was round in eight cases (80%) and irregular in two cases (20%). The CT images of five cases showed predominantly isoattenuation in three cases and high attenuation in two cases, with a mean attenuation value of 52 HU. In addition, calcifications were seen in three cases. At MRI, nine masses were isointense (n = 6) or hypointense (n = 3) to grey matter on T1-weighted images and mildly hyperintense (n = 4), isointense (n = 3), hypointense (n = 1), and of mixed signal intensity (n = 1) on T2-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. Signal voids were visible in two cases. Enhancement after injection of contrast material was marked homogeneous (n = 5) or heterogeneous (n = 5) on CT or T1-weighted images. Three tumours had mild peritumoural oedema. Three tumours were associated with obstructive hydrocephalus. The pathological subtype of the 10 meningiomas was fibromatous (n = 5), atypical (n = 2), and one each of transitional, psammomatous, and clear-cell type. Conclusion: Although fourth-ventricular meningioma is quite rare, it should be considered in differential diagnosis of neoplasms within the fourth ventricle. The relatively typical radiological appearance, combined the age and sex of patients, can suggest the diagnosis of fourth-ventricular meningioma.

Neuroradiological findings and clinical features of fourth-ventricular meningioma: A study of 10 cases

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, B.-Y.; Yin, B.; Li, Y.-X. [Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Wu, J.-S. [Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Chen, H. [Department of Neuropathology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Wang, X.-Q., E-mail: wangxq10@126.com [Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Geng Daoyng, E-mail: fdhsgdy@126.com [Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China)

2012-05-15

Aim: To present the neuroradiological and clinical findings of fourth-ventricular meningiomas to increase awareness of this entity. Materials and methods: The computed tomography (CT; n = 5), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; n = 9) features and clinical presentations of 10 patients with pathologically documented fourth-ventricular meningiomas were retrospectively analysed. Results: All tumours appeared as well-demarcated masses in the fourth ventricle at CT and MRI. The tumour shape was round in eight cases (80%) and irregular in two cases (20%). The CT images of five cases showed predominantly isoattenuation in three cases and high attenuation in two cases, with a mean attenuation value of 52 HU. In addition, calcifications were seen in three cases. At MRI, nine masses were isointense (n = 6) or hypointense (n = 3) to grey matter on T1-weighted images and mildly hyperintense (n = 4), isointense (n = 3), hypointense (n = 1), and of mixed signal intensity (n = 1) on T2-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. Signal voids were visible in two cases. Enhancement after injection of contrast material was marked homogeneous (n = 5) or heterogeneous (n = 5) on CT or T1-weighted images. Three tumours had mild peritumoural oedema. Three tumours were associated with obstructive hydrocephalus. The pathological subtype of the 10 meningiomas was fibromatous (n = 5), atypical (n = 2), and one each of transitional, psammomatous, and clear-cell type. Conclusion: Although fourth-ventricular meningioma is quite rare, it should be considered in differential diagnosis of neoplasms within the fourth ventricle. The relatively typical radiological appearance, combined the age and sex of patients, can suggest the diagnosis of fourth-ventricular meningioma.

(Shippingport Atomic Power Station). Quarterly operating report, fourth quarter 1980

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-01-01

At the beginning of the fourth quarter of 1980, the Shippingport Atomic Power Station remained shutdown for the normally planned semiannual maintenance and testing program, initiated September 12, 1980. Operational testing began on November 7. Maximum power was achieved November 28 and was maintained throughout the remainder of the quarter except as noted. The LWBR Core has generated 19,046.07 EFPH from start-up through the end of the quarter. During this quarter, approximately 0.000025 curies of Xe 133 activity were released from the station. During the fourth quarter of 1980, 1081 cubic feet of radioactive solid waste was shipped out of state for burial. These shipments contained 0.037 curies of radioactivity.

Seeley-Gilkey coefficients for fourth-order operators on Riemannian manifold

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gusynin, V.P.

1990-01-01

The covariant pseudodifferential-operator method of Widom is developed for computing the coefficients in the heat kernel expansion. It allows one to calculate Seeley-Gilkey coefficients for both minimal and nonminimal differential operators acting on a vector bundle over a riemannian manifold. The coefficients for the fourth-order minimal operators in arbitrary dimensions of space are calculated. In contrast to the second-order operators the coefficients for the fourth-order (and higher) operators turn out to be essentially dependent on the space dimension. The algorithmic character of the method allows one to calculate the coefficients by computer using an analytical calculation system. The method also permits a simple generalization to manifolds with torsion and supermanifolds. (orig.)

Forest Biomass for Climate Change Mitigation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anders Tærø

Awareness of elevated CO2 levels in the atmosphere and resulting climate change has increased focus on renewable energy sources during recent decades. Biomass for energy has been predicted to have the greatest potential for CO2 reductions in the short term and the IPCC assumes that the use...... of biomass for energy is CO2 neutral. Several studies have however criticized this CO2 neutrality assumption and questioned whether CO2 reductions actually are achieved through use of biomass for energy. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the biomass production potential of poplar plantations...... on southern Scandinavian sites, managed under different systems both in agriculture and in forests. In addition, the objective is to assess the potential of the poplar plantations to mitigate climate change by using poplar biomass for substitution of fossil fuels in comparison to a traditional product...

Nuclear energy is part of the solution to struggle against climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-05-01

This document is a contribution to the preparation of the Paris COP21 conference. It recalls the main objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, and then states and discusses three main issues to reach these objectives: the world will need all low-carbon energies including nuclear energy (80 per cent of electricity must be low-carbon within 35 years; CO 2 emissions must be reduced while meeting humanity basic needs; the IPCC has identified three types of low-carbon electricity: renewable, nuclear, and based on carbon capture and sequestration; the electrification of uses is an efficient vector of de-carbonation), it is urgent to use available low-carbon energies right now (70 per cent of the carbon budget has already been consumed; nuclear energy is an available industrial low-carbon solution; nuclear energy is the first source of low-carbon electricity in OECD countries and this is an asset to be preserved to meet climate objectives; nuclear energy is a solution to support a low-carbon growth in emerging countries; nuclear energy will remain a stake to reduce CO 2 emissions), and each country should have access to the larger as possible portfolio of low-carbon technologies (very few scenarios succeed in remaining under the 2 degree C limit without nuclear; all national objectives and peculiarities must be integrated for each country joining the struggle against climate change; nuclear energy allows the reduction of CO 2 emissions while strengthening supply safety and economic safety; within 35 years, the technology portfolio will be larger due to the development of energy storage systems, renewable energies and fourth-generation reactors)

On a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sui-Sun Cheng

1984-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is concerned with sequences that satisfy a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations. Basic properties of such sequences are derived. In addition, we discuss the oscillatory and nonoscillatory behavior of such sequences.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Motion in fourth-rank gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tapia, V.

1992-04-01

Recently we have explored the consequences of describing the metric properties of our universe through a quartic line element. In this geometry the natural object is a fourth-rank metric, i.e., a tensor with four indices. Based on this geometry we constructed a simple field theory for the gravitational field. The field equations coincide with the Einstein field equations in the vacuum case. This fact, however, does not guarantee the observational equivalence of both theories since one must still verify that, as a consequence of the field equations, test particles move along geodesics. This letter is aimed at establishing this result. (author). 7 refs

Updating the results of glacier contribution to the sea level change

Science.gov (United States)

Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Abdalati, Waleed Dr. (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

I have completed an update of global glacier volume change. All data of glacier annual mass balances, surface area over the period 1945/46 till 2004, outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets were included in this update. As the result global glacier volume change have been calculated, also in terms of glacier contribution to sea level change. These results were sent to Working Group 1 and 2 of IPCC-4 as the basis for modeling of sea level towards the end of 2100. In this study I have concentrated on studying glacier systems of different scales, from primary (e.g. Devon ice cap) to regional (e.g. Canadian Arctic), continental scale (e,g., entire Arctic), and global (e.g., change in glacier volume and contribution to sea level rise).

Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project quarterly environmental data summary (QEDS) for fourth quarter 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-02-01

This report contains the Quarterly Environmental Data Summary (QEDS) for the fourth quarter of 1998 in support of the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project Federal Facilities Agreement. The data, except for air monitoring data and site KPA generated data (uranium analyses) were received from the contract laboratories, verified by the Weldon Spring Site verification group, and merged into the database during the fourth quarter of 1998. KPA results for on-site total uranium analyses performed during fourth quarter 1998 are included. Air monitoring data presented are the most recent complete sets of quarterly data.

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

2015-01-01

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

KAUST Repository

Villarino, E

2015-07-02

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Land Surface Phenologies of the Northern Great Plains: Possible Futures Arising From Land and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Henebry, G. M.; Wimberly, M. C.; Senay, G.; Wang, A.; Chang, J.; Wright, C. R.; Hansen, M. C.

2008-12-01

Land cover change across the Northern Great Plains of North America over the past three decades has been driven by changes in agricultural management (conservation tillage; irrigation), government incentives (Conservation Reserve Program; subsidies to grain-based ethanol), crop varieties (cold-hardy soybean), and market dynamics (increasing world demand). Climate change across the Northern Great Plains over the past three decades has been evident in trends toward earlier warmth in the spring and a longer frost-free season. Together these land and climate changes induce shifts in local and regional land surface phenologies (LSPs). Any significant shift in LSP may correspond to a significant shift in evapotranspiration, with consequences for regional hydrometeorology. We explored possible future scenarios involving land use and climate change in six steps. First, we defined the nominal draw areas of current and future biorefineries in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa and masked those land cover types within the draw areas that were unlikely to change to agricultural use (open water, settlements, forests, etc.). Second, we estimated the proportion of corn and soybean remaining within the masked draw areas using MODIS-derived crop maps. Third, in each draw area, we modified LSPs to simulate crop changes for a control and two treatment scenarios. In the control, we used LSP profiles identified from MODIS Collection 5 NBAR data. In one treatment, we increased the proportion of tallgrass LSPs in the draw areas to represent widespread cultivation of a perennial cellulosic crop, like switchgrass. In a second treatment, we increased the proportion of corn LSPs in the draw areas to represent increased corn cultivation. Fourth, we characterized the seasonal progression of the thermal regime associated with the LSP profiles using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. Fifth, we modeled the LSP profile as a quadratic function of accumulated

Using fourth-year medical students' reflections to propose strategies ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2011-12-13

Dec 13, 2011 ... S Afr Fam Pract 2012;54(6):513-517. Using fourth-year .... cope with the psychological impact of certain cases and to distance myself .... requirements. They should have an opportunity to test ... Reynolds HY. On becoming a ...

REDUCED ISOTROPIC CRYSTAL MODEL WITH RESPECT TO THE FOURTH-ORDER ELASTIC MODULI