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Sample records for change ipcc fourth

  1. Integrating Sustainable Development and Climate Change in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munasinghe, M.; Canziani, O.; Davidson, O.; Metz, B.; Parry, M.; Harrison, M. [Munasinghe Institute for Development MIND, Colombo (Sri Lanka)

    2003-07-01

    The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC did take into account the nexus between climate change and sustainable development and attempted to assess the linkages between these two. However, much more remains to be done in providing a comprehensive assessment of this nexus, and how it is likely to affect human civilization in the decades ahead. It is for this reason that the issue of sustainable development is going to be incorporated as a major cross cutting theme in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The Expert Meeting held in Colombo on Climate Change and Sustainable Development was the first of two expert meetings approved by the IPCC Plenary in Paris, in February 2003 (see Annex A for details). Sustainable development had been identified as a Cross Cutting Theme (CCT) for the Third Assessment Report (TAR), but was not developed fully therein. The Colombo Expert Meeting was held early, to enable the outcomes to inform the two IPCC Scoping Meetings (scheduled for May and September 2003), and to eventually provide guidance to the Lead Authors. At the IPCC Plenary XX, Paris, February 2003, seven Cross Cutting Themes (CCTs) were approved as forming a fundamental aspect of the structure of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). These themes are: Risk and Uncertainty; Regional Integration; Water; Key Vulnerabilities including Article 2 issues; Adaptation and Mitigation; Sustainable Development; Technology. Introductory presentations were made by invited speakers, covering many of the key aspects of sustainable development, including linkages both from and to climate change. Summaries of these presentations are provided in this section, while original PowerPoint versions of the presentations are included in Part B of the volume.

  2. Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny; Bogner,Jean; Bosch, Peter; Dave, Rutu; Davidson, Ogunlade; Fisher, Brian; Grubb,Michael; Gupta, Sujata; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Heij, Bertjan; Kahn Ribeiro,Suzana; Kobayashi, Shigeki; Levine, Mark; Martino, Daniel; MaseraCerutti, Omar; Metz, Bert; Meyer, Leo; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Najam, Adil; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Rogner, Hans Holger; Roy, Joyashree; Sathaye,Jayant; Schock, Robert; Shukla, Priyaradshi; Sims, Ralph; Smith, Pete; Swart, Rob; Tirpak, Dennis; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; Zhou, Dadi

    2007-04-30

    A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.

  3. IPCC underestimates the Sun’s role in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Geel, B.; Ziegler, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    For the understanding of current and future climate change it is a basic pre requisite to properly understand the mechanisms, which controlled climate change after the Last Ice Age. According to the IPCC 5th assessment report (in prep.) the Sun has not been a major driver of climate change during th

  4. IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J.; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary

    2017-01-01

    The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.

  5. EVIDENCE OF ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC CHANGES AND THEIR REGULATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (FURTHER FINDINGS SINCE THE FOURTH IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORT RELEASED)%南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈立奇

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the climate of the Arctic and the Antarctic have been of great concern to international scientific and social communities since the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released in 2007. Since then, many new findings have been reported from observations and research carried out in the Arctic and Antarctic during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY). There is evidence that rapid changes in the Arctic and Antarctic induced by global warming are occurring in a quantitative and qualitative sense, and Arctic and Antarctic regional changes could be used indicators of global climate change. Declining Arctic sea ice could impact on winter snowfall in much of the Northern Hemisphere, with colder winters and more snow. Projections suggest that summertime Arctic sea ice will disappear by 2040. By 2050, the Antarctic ozone hole will have recovered to the level of the early 1980s, when the production of freon was completely prohibited. With weakening the shielding effect of the ozone hole to the global warming, it will become warmer in Antarctica and East Antarctica, leading to melting of ice sheets and retreating sea ice. Sea level rise will be a serious issue. As sea surface temperature rises the air-sea exchange of CO2 will be enhanced and surface water will take up more C02. This will lead to ocean acidification with important effects on ecological systems and food chains.%政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 2007年发布了第四次评估报告,全球气候变化问题再次成为一个重要的国际科学和政治议题.2007年以来,通过实施第四次国际极地年行动所获得的成果进一步证明,全球变暖所诱发极区出现的快速变化正在经历由量到质的转变,表明两极变化对全球气候变化起着一种指示和调控作用.一些研究指出:北冰洋会在2040年前后出现夏季无海冰并将引起北半球大范围的持续暴雪的寒冷冬季发生;2050

  6. Agreeing to disagree: Uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC

    OpenAIRE

    Swart, R.J.; Benstein, L.; Duong, L.M.; Petersen, A.

    2009-01-01

    International audience; Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel's scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the observed differences in the handling of uncertainties by the three IPCC Working Groups can be clarified. To address this question, the paper reviews a few key issues on the foun...

  7. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  8. Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Benstein, L.; Duong, L.M.; Petersen, A.

    2009-01-01

    Dealing consistently with risk and uncertainty across the IPCC reports is a difficult challenge. Huge practical difficulties arise from the Panel’s scale and interdisciplinary context, the complexity of the climate change issue and its political context. The key question of this paper is if the obse

  9. Integrating and Differentiating Meanings in Tweeting about the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmberg, K.; Hellsten, I.

    2016-01-01

    The publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 report in September 2013 was highly debated on Twitter. In this paper we focused on tweets that mention “IPCC”, and in particular the content and sentiment of the tweets sent by tweeters that were identifie

  10. A time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Estrada

    Full Text Available In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970's. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.

  11. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.;

    2016-01-01

    representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social...... across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...

  12. Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Change under IPCC A2 Scenario in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Jianping; CHEN Xing; ZHAO Ming; SU Bingkai

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that (1) the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. (2) The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.

  13. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Pearce

    Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  14. Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

  15. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  16. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  17. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-lin CHEN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3 under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  18. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang-lin CHEN; Jun-cheng ZUO; Mei-xiang CHEN; Zhi-gang GAO; C-K SHUM

    2014-01-01

    Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR), it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM), with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs), was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3) under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  19. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  20. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  1. Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII

    OpenAIRE

    2011-01-01

    This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change (‘Indigenous content’) to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting ho...

  2. IPCC - the global climate monopoly; IPCC - det globale klimatmonopolet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wellander, Dag

    2006-07-01

    IPCC has a dominant, almost monopolistic position when it comes to making statements about the environment and climatic change. A critical assessment of the institution is made, and attention is drawn to the fact that IPCC is not an organization with solely a scientific mission, but a hybrid between science and politics. Some of the objections from the scientific community against IPCC's models and predictions are presented.

  3. Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.

  4. IPCC's Climate Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almlund, Pernille

    The work of IPCC is an important work and contribution to the global discussion and global challenge of climate change. But this work is primarily based on computer modelling, natural science, economic science and as a new perspective a stronger focus on the risk perspective than in earlier IPCC...... reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

  5. Fourth Generation War: Paradigm for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    frustrated by the advantages that the weak acquire through 4GW, are also within the genre of the Fourth Generation. Terrorism is the strategy and tactic of...for SF. In order to examine these factors a brief overview of SF is necessary. 1. What Makes the SOF As per the techno-- thriller author Tom

  6. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  7. How will global warming affect my world? A simplified guide to the IPCC's 'Climate Change 2001. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-11-15

    Global warming is already changing the world around us in ways that researchers can measure and quantify. Such changes will become more and more evident with each passing decade. Although cutting greenhouse gas emissions in order to minimize future climate change must be our top priority, we must also prepare to respond to impacts that our past emissions now make inevitable. People everywhere need to understand how climate change is going to affect them and what they can do to cope. Fortunately, the Working Group II of the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has assessed what researchers have learned about expected impacts and how to adapt to them. Its findings are presented in a comprehensive publication entitled 'Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability', which is part of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. This Report also includes volumes on the causes of climate change and on options for limiting greenhouse emissions. This simplified guide presents the highly technical findings of Working Group II in everyday language. It is not an official document and has been neither approved nor accepted by the IPCC. Instead, it seeks to make the hundreds of pages of detailed text contained in the volume on 'Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability' more accessible to a broader audience. I encourage readers seeking further information to refer to the original publications and the IPCC's web site.

  8. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  9. Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

    2008-01-01

    In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

  10. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

  11. Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

  12. Science-policy interaction in the global greenhouse. Institutional design and institutional performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skodvin, Tora

    1999-08-01

    This paper explores the science-policy interaction and the extent to which and how institutional arrangements may be used as instruments for enhancing the effectiveness of the dialog. The first part develops the theory. The point of departure of the analysis is the internal dynamics of science and politics in their pure forms and the nature of the dynamics that are generated when these two distinct systems of behaviour meet. On this basis, then, the question of which functions the institutional apparatus should be able to serve in order to enhance the effectiveness of science-policy dialogue is addressed. This approach is then applied to an empirical case study of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988 to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. 53 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. IPCC A1B情景下中国西南地区气候变化的数值模拟%Numerical Simulations of Climate Change under IPCC A1B Scenario in Southwestern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴迪; 裴源生; 赵勇; 肖伟华

    2012-01-01

    利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM全球海气耦合模式模拟的当代(1986-2000年)和IPCC A1B情景下未来(2011-2025年)2×15a的模拟输出格点场资料,驱动20 km高水平分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3进行西南地区气候变化的数值模拟,主要分析未来地面温度和降水的可能变化。结果表明:①通过与32个地面气象站观测资料和CRU资料对比分析,RegCM3能够很好的模拟研究区基准时段地面温度和降水的局地分布特征。②A1B情景下未来西南地区年、四季平均温度均明显增加,北部温度变化幅度大于南部。③最高/最低温度一致升高,冬季最高/最低温度变化幅度大于夏季;年、秋冬季降水有所增加,冬季降水增加明显,而春夏季降水略有减少。④研究区未来春夏季温度升高、降水减少的趋势可能导致局部地区高温、干旱等极端天气的可能性增大;同时冬季降水增加,可能加重局部地区洪涝灾害的风险。%Climate change over southwestern China is simulated by a regional climate model(RegCM3),using the output from a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(ECHAM5/MPI-OM) as lateral and surface boundary conditions.Two sets of 15 years of simulations at 20-km gird resolution for present days(1986-2000) and future(2011-2025,under IPCC_A1B scenario) are conducted to analyze the effects of surface air temperature and precipitation on the drought as a focal area.Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the spatial distribution of surface air temperature and precipitation in southwestern China compared with the observed data of 32 meteorological stations and grid data of CRU,and simulated annual and summer precipitation is much higher than winter precipitation.The simulated precipitation in winter is higher than observed values.During 2011-2025,there might be a remarkably warming either annually or in other seasons.The temperature change in the northern region is bigger than that in the

  14. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

  15. Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

    2013-05-01

    This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area.

  16. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Katsman, C.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Riva, R,E.M.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model

  17. Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

    2016-03-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

  18. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  19. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scen

  20. Changes of Atmospheric Water Balance over China under the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario Based on RegCM3 Simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Bo; JIANG Da-Bang

    2012-01-01

    Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March–June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

  1. Applying IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) land-use projections in a regional assessment of land-use change in the conterminous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherba, J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include global land-use change projections for four global emissions scenarios. These projections are potentially useful for driving regional-scale models needed for informing land-use and management interactions. Here, we applied global gridded RCP land-use projections within a regional-scale state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change in the conterminous United States. First, we cross-walked RCP land-use transition classes to land-use classes more relevant for modeling at the regional scale. Coarse grid RCP land-use transition values were then downscaled to EPA Level III ecoregion boundaries using historical land-use transition data from the USGS Land Cover Trends (LCT) dataset. Downscaled transitions were aggregated to the ecoregion level. Ecoregions were chosen because they represent areas with consistent land-use patterns that have proven useful for studying land-use and management interactions. Ecoregion-level RCP projections were applied in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change between 2005 and 2100 at the 1-km scale. Resulting RCP-based STSM projections were compared to STSM projections created using scenario projections from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the USGS LCT dataset. While most land-use trajectories appear plausible, some transitions such as forest harvest are unreasonable in the context of historical land-use patterns and the socio-economic drivers of change outlined for each scenario. This effort provides a method for using the RCP land-use projections in a wide range of regional scale models. However, further investigation is needed into the performance of RCP land-use projections at the regional scale.

  2. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

    2013-01-01

    To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

  3. The Fourth Way: The Inspiring Future for Educational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, Andy; Shirley, Dennis

    2009-01-01

    In an expressive and absorbing style, this penetrating volume offers a plan for viable and sustainable educational reform that reflects research on traditional methods and new findings from successful school initiatives around the globe. Beginning with an incisive analysis of the three major educational change efforts of the past 25 years, Andy…

  4. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  5. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.

    2008-01-01

    through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste...... quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline...

  6. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Jean; Pipatti, Riitta; Hashimoto, Seiji; Diaz, Cristobal; Mareckova, Katarina; Diaz, Luis; Kjeldsen, Peter; Monni, Suvi; Faaij, Andre; Gao, Qingxian; Zhang, Tianzhu; Ahmed, Mohammed Abdelrafie; Sutamihardja, R T M; Gregory, Robert

    2008-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs gas recovery in the short- to medium-term--at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets.

  7. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some

  8. IPCC Projections and Energy Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, S. F.

    2008-05-01

    The United States and other developed nations are embarking on energy policies based on several contested IPCC hypotheses: (1) Climate warming of the last 30 years is anthropogenic, caused by the emission of greenhouse (GH) gases from fossil-fuel burning. (2) Continued use of fossil fuels will double CO2 by 2050 and lead to an unacceptable rise in global temperatures and sea levels. (3) The Kyoto Protocol and unilateral steps to control GH-gas emissions may be ineffective but are essential to inducing the rest of the world (ROW) to follow suit. But if warming is of natural origin rather than anthropogenic, then proposed policy steps will not be able to stop it. Also, sea levels will continue to rise, no matter what may be causing warming. Further, many competent economists believe that a warmer climate will be beneficial, on the whole. The 4th Assessment Report (2007) of the IPCC has been criticized by some as being too conservative in its projections. Others have faulted it for pessimistic projections or for ignoring evidence that contradicts its major conclusions. Most, however, consider the report a good compendium of the current state of climate science. In view of these widely different views by experts, what energy policies make sense? We will discuss (1) control schemes, like Cap & Trade or carbon taxes; (2) alternate fuels (like ethanol, hydrogen, etc); (3) renewable energy sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar); (4) carbon sequestration; and (5) energy conservation and efficiency improvements.

  9. IPCC Methodologies for the Waste Sector: Past, Present, and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    The reporting of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began more than a decade ago by the signatory countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). National GHG inventories rely on the evolving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) national GHG inventor...

  10. Social Media in the Changing Ecology of News: The Fourth and Fifth Estate in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William H. Dutton

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of the changing patterns of news production and consumption in the UK that are being shaped by the Internet and related social media. Theoretically, this focus addresses concern over whether the Internet is undermining the Fourth Estate role of the press in liberal democratic societies. The case study draws from multiple methods, including survey research of individuals in Britain from 2003-2011, analysis of log files of journalistic sites, and interviews with journalists. Survey research shows a step-jump in the use of online news since 2003 but a levelling off since 2009. However, the apparent stability in news consumption masks the growing role of social network sites. The analyses show that the Fourth Estate—the institutional news media—is using social media to enhance their role in news production and dissemination. However, networked individuals have used social media to source and distribute their own information in ways that achieve a growing independence from the Fourth Estate journalism. As more information moves online and individuals become routinely linked to the Internet, an emerging Fifth Estate, built on the activities of networked individuals sourcing and distributing their own information, is developing a synergy with the Fourth Estate as each builds on and responds to the other in this new news ecology. Comparative data suggests that this phenomenon is likely to characterize the developing news ecology in other liberal democratic societies as well, but more comparative research is required to establish the validity of this model.

  11. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  12. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

  13. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  14. The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BUHE Cholaw(布和朝鲁); Ulrich CUBASCH; LIN Yonghui(林永辉); JI Liren(纪立人)

    2003-01-01

    This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-oceancoupled general circulation nodel. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlargesthe land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation tobe strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increasessignificantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward toNorth China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitationwould increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability ofthe precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.

  15. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  16. Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

  17. Goal Setting Is Differentially Related to Change in Fruit, Juice, and Vegetable Consumption among Fourth-Grade Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, Karen Weber; Zakeri, Issa; Pryor, Erin W.; Baranowski, Tom; Baranowski, Janice; Watson, Kathy

    2004-01-01

    The impact of goal attainment in a dietary change program to increase fruit, 100% juice, and vegetable consumption was assessed among fourth-grade students. At each session, the students were given goals related to increasing fruit, juice, and vegetable consumption. Baseline consumption and postconsumption were assessed with up to 4 days of…

  18. Observing, studying, and managing for change-Proceedings of the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, Nicolas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

    2011-01-01

    These proceedings contain the abstracts, manuscripts, and posters of presentations given at the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds-Observing, Studying, and Managing for Change, held at the Westmark Hotel in Fairbanks, Alaska, September 26-30, 2011. The conference was jointly hosted by the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service.

  19. Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

  20. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  1. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  2. Re-reading the IPCC Report: Aerosols, Droughts and ENSO Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, K. A.

    2008-12-01

    The Technical Summary of Working Group One in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that "changes in aerosols may have affected precipitation and other aspects of the hydrologic cycle more strongly than other anthropogenic forcing agents" and that "Simulations also suggest that absorbing aerosols, particularly black carbon, can reduce the solar radiation reaching the surface and can warm the atmosphere at regional scales, affecting the vertical temperature profile and the large-scale atmospheric circulation". Taking these two statements at face value I first identify eight seasonal, anthropogenic, regional scale, aerosol plumes which now occur each year and then report the correlation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) of some of these plumes with climate anomalies in the higher latitudes and with ENSO events. The eight identified aerosol plumes vary significantly in extent and AOD inter annually. They have also increased in geographic extent and AOD over recent decades as the population in the tropics, the origin of the majority of these plumes, has increased dramatically requiring increased levels of agriculture and commercial activity. I show that: the AOD of the South East Asian Plume, occurring from late July to November, correlates with four characteristics of drought in south eastern Australia; the aerosol index of the Middle East Plume correlates negatively with rainfall in Darfur; and the volume of tephra ejected by volcanoes in south east Asia correlates: negatively with rainfall and water inflows into the Murray River in south eastern Australia; and positively with ENSO events over the period 1890/91 to 2006. I conclude that aerosol plumes over south eastern Asia are the cause of drought in south eastern Australia and ENSO events and confirm the statements made in the IPCC Report with respect to these aerosol plumes. I propose a new component of surface aerosol radiative forcing, Regional Dimming, which interferes with the seasonal movement of the

  3. Positive solutions with changing sign energy to a nonhomogeneous elliptic problem of fourth order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Talbi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study the existence for two positive solutions toa nonhomogeneous elliptic equation of fourth order with a parameter lambda such tha 0 < lambda < lambda^. The first solution has a negative energy while the energy of the second one is positive for 0 < lambda < lambda_0 and negative for lambda_0 < lambda < lambda^. The values lambda_0 and lambda^ are given under variational form and we show that every corresponding critical point is solution of the nonlinear elliptic problem (with a suitable multiplicative term.

  4. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z

    2007-07-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  5. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES IN LIGHT OF THE IPCC SREX (2011 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JÁNOS MIKA

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate extremes in light of the IPCC SREX (2011 and beyond. The recent IPCC Special Report (IPCC SREX, 2011 provides a comprehensive overview of meteorological (i.e. weather and climate extremes and their various aspects. The present paper reflects the core concepts of the Report, clarifying the relations of the natural and anthropogenic factors causing meteorological extremes, as well, as condition determining the risks and general ways of response by the society. The paper can only add some recent statistics to this scheme on various aspects of meteorological and non-meteorological reasons of natural disasters. The paper argues, however, the still unclear definition of the extremes and their classification as weather and climate extremes. We also dedicate a sub-Section to the statistical and physical considerations on how the extremes may change parallel to the global warming. Another sub-Section refers to further difficulties that hamper the empirical establishment of the trends in the meteorological extremes. Finally we overview the IPCC AR4 (2007 conclusions on some meteorological extremes, since the detailed Chapters of the IPCC SREX (2011 Report were not available by the time of writing the paper, but from its SPM no difference in the statements and even its uncertainties can be established since the AR4.

  6. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  7. Twitter Campaigns Around the Fifth IPCC Report: Campaign Spreading, Shared Hashtags, and Separate Communities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmberg, K.; Hellsten, I.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we analyzed campaigning on Twitter around the publication of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 report in September, 2013. In particular, we analyzed how participation in a specific campaign and use of hashtags connected to the campaign devel

  8. Fourth quantization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faizal, Mir

    2013-12-18

    In this Letter we will analyze the creation of the multiverse. We will first calculate the wave function for the multiverse using third quantization. Then we will fourth-quantize this theory. We will show that there is no single vacuum state for this theory. Thus, we can end up with a multiverse, even after starting from a vacuum state. This will be used as a possible explanation for the creation of the multiverse. We also analyze the effect of interactions in this fourth-quantized theory.

  9. Cloud Radiative Forcing in Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by IPCC AR4 AMIP Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiandong; LIU Yimin; WU Guoxiong

    2009-01-01

    This study examines cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Asian monsoon region (0°-50°N,60°-150°E)simulated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) AMIP models.During boreal winter,no model realistically reproduces the larger long-wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and only a couple of models reasonably capture the larger short-wave CRF (SWCF) to the east of the TP.During boreal summer,there are larger biases for central location and intensity of simulated CRF in active convective regions.The CRF biases are closely related to the rainfall biases in the models.Quantitative analysis further indicates that the correlation between simulated CRF and observations are not high,and that the biases and diversity in SWCF are larger than that in LWCF.The annual cycle of simulated CRF over East Asia (0°-50°N,100°-145°E) is also examined.Though many models capture the basic annual cycle in tropics,strong LWCF and SWCF to the east of the TP beginning in early spring are underestimated by most models.As a whole,GFDL-CM2.1,MPI-ECHAM5,UKMO-HadGAM1,and MIROC3.2 (medres) perform well for CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region,and the multi-model ensemble (MME) has improved results over the individual simulations. It is suggested that strengthening the physical parameterizations involved over the TP,and improving cumulus convection processes and model experiment design are crucial to CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region.

  10. A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.M.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Valdivia, R.O.; Thornton, P.K.; Herrero, M.

    2012-01-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in thecontext of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data d

  11. Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

  12. Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

    2014-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

  13. Climate modelling: IPCC gazes into the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raper, Sarah

    2012-04-01

    In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will report on the next set of future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, offering a rational alternative pathway for avoiding dangerous climate change.

  14. Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

  15. A review of uncertainty visualization within the IPCC reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocke, Thomas; Reusser, Dominik; Wrobel, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Results derived from climate model simulations confront non-expert users with a variety of uncertainties. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be communicated such that it can be easily understood, however, the complexity of the science behind is still incorporated. With respect to the assessment reports of the IPCC, the situation is even more complicated, because heterogeneous sources and multiple types of uncertainties need to be compiled together. Within this work, we systematically (1) analyzed the visual representation of uncertainties in the IPCC AR4 and AR5 reports, and (2) executed a questionnaire to evaluate how different user groups such as decision-makers and teachers understand these uncertainty visualizations. Within the first step, we classified visual uncertainty metaphors for spatial, temporal and abstract representations. As a result, we clearly identified a high complexity of the IPCC visualizations compared to standard presentation graphics, sometimes even integrating two or more uncertainty classes / measures together with the "certain" (mean) information. Further we identified complex written uncertainty explanations within image captions even within the "summary reports for policy makers". In the second step, based on these observations, we designed a questionnaire to investigate how non-climate experts understand these visual representations of uncertainties, how visual uncertainty coding might hinder the perception of the "non-uncertain" data, and if alternatives for certain IPCC visualizations exist. Within the talk/poster, we will present first results from this questionnaire. Summarizing, we identified a clear trend towards complex images within the latest IPCC reports, with a tendency to incorporate as much as possible information into the visual representations, resulting in proprietary, non-standard graphic representations that are not necessarily easy to comprehend on one glimpse. We conclude that

  16. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  17. Run-based multi-model interannual variability assessment of precipitation and temperature over Pakistan using two IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmat, U.; Athar, H.

    2017-01-01

    The interannual variability of precipitation and temperature is derived from all runs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report (AR4)-based two Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations, over Pakistan, on an annual basis. The models are the CM2.0 and CM2.1 versions of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-based AOGCM. Simulations for a recent 22-year period (1979-2000) are validated using Climate Research Unit (CRU) and NCEP/NCAR datasets over Pakistan, for the first time. The study area of Pakistan is divided into three regions: all Pakistan, northern Pakistan, and southern Pakistan. Bias, root mean square error, one sigma standard deviation, and coefficient of variance are used as validation metrics. For all Pakistan and northern Pakistan, all three runs of GFDL-CM2.0 perform better under the above metrics, both for precipitation and temperature (except for one sigma standard deviation and coefficient of variance), whereas for southern Pakistan, third run of GFDL-CM2.1 perform better expect for the root mean square error for temperature. A mean and variance-based bias correction is applied to bias in modeled precipitation and temperature variables. This resulted in a reduced bias, except for the months of June, July, and August, when the reduction in bias is relatively lower.

  18. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

    1998-12-01

    Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of

  19. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since...... and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. The report has been produced by a writing team comprised of members of the Scientific Steering Committee for the IARU Congress and individuals invited to give the writing team academic...... of this volume. The writing team has, in addition to presentations at the Congress, drawn upon recent publications in the scientific literature to create this synthesis. This report has been critically reviewed by representatives of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), by the parallel session chairs...

  20. At The Threshold Of The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Sustainable Initiatives In Brazilian Industries In The Context Of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    João Zaleski Neto; Sergio Ruggiero; Getúlio Kazue Akabane; Luis Fernando Zulietti

    2013-01-01

    The complexityand multiplicity of the possible interactions involved in the phenomenon of anthropogenicclimate change make it difficult, even for eminent scientists, to be absolutelycertain regarding the occurrence of global climate change and its consequences.Nevertheless, there is a consensus that the crisis is already here.  While top-down solutions to this problem arebeing discussed, this paper addresses the bottom-up approach to reducing GHGemissions.   On investigating thebehavior of th...

  1. ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

  2. IPCC《可再生能源与减缓气候变化特别报告》及其对应对气候变化前景的影响分析%IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation and Its Influence on Climate Change Prospects

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱蓉; 巢清尘; 张军岩

    2011-01-01

    应对气候变化和能源安全已成为全球性的重大问题,在此背景下,2008年4月在布达佩斯召开的政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第28次全会上,决定由IPCC第三工作组组织编写《可再生能源与减缓气候变化特别报告》(以下简称SRREN)①.全球120多位专家,先后举行6次会议,历时2年半,完成了SRREN的编写.2011年5月,IPCC第三工作组第11次会议、IPCC第33次全会先后审议批准、接受了该报告.此份报告是IPCC第五次评估期间发布的首份报告,必将有助于更好地推动全球应对气候变化的行动.

  3. Strategic Change in Higher Education Libraries with the Advent of the Digital Library during the Fourth Decade of Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Mel

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper sets out to review how the business of libraries in higher education has changed with the impact of the digital library during the latest decade of Program, in which the content of the journal swung decisively from being primarily about library management systems to primarily being about digital library issues.…

  4. At The Threshold Of The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Sustainable Initiatives In Brazilian Industries In The Context Of Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Zaleski Neto

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The complexityand multiplicity of the possible interactions involved in the phenomenon of anthropogenicclimate change make it difficult, even for eminent scientists, to be absolutelycertain regarding the occurrence of global climate change and its consequences.Nevertheless, there is a consensus that the crisis is already here.  While top-down solutions to this problem arebeing discussed, this paper addresses the bottom-up approach to reducing GHGemissions.   On investigating thebehavior of three leading companies in the drinks, food and paint sector, whichare proactive specifically in relation to the problem of global climate changeand regarding sustainability in general, this study identifies the bestpractices and documents and disseminates them with a view to their implementationin other organizations.   With the use ofa tool containing 51 variables, which are each associated with five scenarios,it was possible to identify the degree to which the companies meet thechallenges imposed by the search for sustainability.  In this context, the overall objective ofthis study was to investigate and identify the behavior of three large companieswhich are leaders in their sector with regard to sustainability and,specifically, their actions aimed at reducing the effects of anthropogenicclimate change.

  5. IPCC workshop on impacts of ocean acidification on marine biology and ecosystems. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Dahe, Q.; Mach, K.J.; Plattner, G.-K.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Tignor, M.; Ebi, K.L.

    2011-09-15

    Understanding the effects of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations on ocean chemistry, commonly termed ocean acidification, as well as associated impacts on marine biology and ecosystems, is an important component of scientific knowledge about global change. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will include comprehensive coverage of ocean acidification and its impacts, including potential feedbacks to the climate system. To support ongoing AR5 assessment efforts, Working Group II and Working Group I (WGII and WGI) of the IPCC held a joint Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems in Okinawa, Japan, from 17 to 19 January 2011. The workshop convened experts from the scientific community, including WGII and WGI AR5 authors and review editors, to synthesise scientific understanding of changes in ocean chemistry due to increased CO{sub 2} and of impacts of this changing chemistry on marine organisms, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. This workshop report summarises the scientific content and perspectives presented and discussed during the workshop. It provides syntheses of these perspectives for the workshop's core topics: (i) the changing chemistry of the oceans, (ii) impacts of ocean acidification for individual organisms, and (iii) scaling up responses from individual organisms to ecosystems. It also presents summaries of workshop discussions of key cross-cutting themes, ranging from detection and attribution of ocean acidification and its impacts to understanding ocean acidification in the context of other stressors on marine systems. Additionally, the workshop report includes extended abstracts for keynote and poster presentations at the workshop. (Author)

  6. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5) in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, José; Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco; Chaves, Rosane; Silva, Emerson; Servain, Jacques; Costa, Alexandre; Sombra, Sérgio; Barbosa, Augusto; Dos Santos, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20) and future projections of the AR4 (A2) and AR5 (RCP8.5) experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5) in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn) in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  7. A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

    2010-01-01

    We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

  8. An Assessment on the Performance of IPCC AR4 Climate Models in Simulating Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Ying; DING Yihui

    2008-01-01

    Observations from several data centers together with a categorization method are used to evaluate the IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Fourth Assessment Report) climate models' performance in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation and monsoon circulation in East Asia. Out of 19 models under examination, 9 models can relatively well reproduce the 1979-1999 mean June-July-August (JJA) precipitation in East Asia, but only 3 models (Category-1 models) can capture the interdecadal variation of precipitation in East Asia. These 3 models are: GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2 (hires), and MIROC3.2 (medres), among which the GFDL-CM2.0 gives the best performance. The reason for the poor performance of most models in simulating the East Asian summer monsoon interdecadal variation lies in that the key dynamic and thermal-dynamic mechanisms behind the East Asian monsoon change are missed by the models, e.g., the large-scale tropospheric cooling and drying over East Asia. In contrast, the Category-1 models relatively well reproduce the variations in vertical velocity and water vapor over East Asia and thus show a better agreement with observations in simulating the pattern of "wet south and dry north" in China in the past 20 years.It is assessed that a single model's performance in simulating a particular variable has great impacts on the ensemble results. More realistic outputs can be obtained when the multi-model ensemble is carried out using a suite of well-performing models for a specific variable, rather than using all available models. This indicates that although a multi-model ensemble is in general better than a single model, the best ensemble mean cannot be achieved without looking into each member model's performance.

  9. A model of enteric fermentation in dairy cows to estimate methane emission for the Dutch National Inventory Report using the IPCC Tier 3 approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bannink, A.; Schijndel, van M.W.; Dijkstra, J.

    2011-01-01

    The protocol for the National Inventory of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in The Netherlands includes a dynamic and mechanistic model of animal digestion and fermentation as an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 approach to estimate enteric CH4 emission by dairy cows. The

  10. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strengers, B.; Leemans, R.; Eickhout, B.; Vries, de B.; Bouwman, L.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the mo

  11. The fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    ""This is an invigorating book, a short but spirited slalom for the mind."" - Timothy Ferris, The New York Times Book Review ""Highly readable. One is reminded of the breadth and depth of Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach."" - Science""Anyone with even a minimal interest in mathematics and fantasy will find The Fourth Dimension informative and mind-dazzling... [Rucker] plunges into spaces above three with a zest and energy that is breathtaking."" - Martin Gardner ""Those who think the fourth dimension is nothing but time should be encouraged to read The Fourth Dimension, along with anyone else

  12. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2009-02-10

    Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

  13. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  14. Floods in Mekong Delta Under Sea-Level Rise Projections By IPCC AR5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, H.

    2014-12-01

    One of the mightiest rivers in the planet, the Mekong ranks 10th amongst the world's great rivers on the basis of mean annual flow at the mouth. It flows southwards over a distance of approximately 4,800 km from its source to the sea, through six different countries: China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. This great basin has been considered to be one of the most sensitive areas in the world to climate change. The present paper investigates fluvial flood hazards in urban areas in the Mekong Delta to inundation due to seasonal flooding, a phenomenon which is likely to be exacerbated by future sea-level rise. Unlike past researches which mainly focus on flooding due to river discharge from upstream or heavy precipitation, the present paper scrutinizes the influence of ocean tides. The research reveals that ocean tides predominantly determine water elevation even in an upstream location such as Can Tho City, 80 km inland from the river mouth, and that the river flow causes tidal damping and effectively reduces the energy of the incoming tides. This tidal damping is especially pronounced during the rainy season. Analysis based on the water levels monitored by the Mekong River Commission reveals that the ground near the riverbank of Can Tho had experienced inundation for a total of 215 hours between July 2009 and June 2010 (2.5% of the time over a one year period). It is also shown that inundation reached up to a maximum height of 47 cm above the roads of Can Tho downtown in this one-year period. Assuming two scenarios of sea-level rise of 25 cm in the middle of the 21st century and 60 cm in the end of the century, all based on the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) projections, it was found that the duration of inundation will be prolonged from the present percentage of 2.5% to 7.5% and 24% of the year, respectively. It is important to note that while at present this flooding is seasonal and limited, in the

  15. The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research

    OpenAIRE

    Knopf, Jeffrey W.

    2010-01-01

    The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13523261003640819 A new line of work on deterrence began emerging after the end of the Cold War and gained momentum after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Building on a previous characterization by Robert Jervis that identified three waves of deterrence research,1 this work is here designated the fourth wave. The fourth wave reflects a change from a focus on relatively symmetrical situations of mu...

  16. Using intergovernmental panel on climate change Tier 1 to analyze the trends and distribution patterns of enteric methane emissions from ruminants in China during 1990-2010%基于IPCC Tier 1层级的中国反刍家畜胃肠道甲烷排放格局变化分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王荣; 邓近平; 王敏; 王玉诗; 张玉茹; 颜志成; 谭支良

    2015-01-01

    依据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)2006年公布的反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放系数(奶牛61 kg CH4头-1 a-1,肉役牛47 kgCH4头-1 a-1,绵羊和山羊均为5 kg CH4头-1a-1)和IPCC Tier 1计算方法,结合《中国统计年鉴》和《中国畜牧业统计年鉴》,估算了中国以及各个省份1990-2010年CH4的排放总量,绘制出中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放格局及历史变化图.研究结果表明:①1990-2010年期间,中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放量(5.90-7.65 Tg)总体呈现先上升(1995年最高)后下降的趋势,其中肉役牛(主要是黄牛和水牛)胃肠道CH4排放量(>4.33 Tg)及其所占比例(>65%)最大.奶牛胃肠道CH4排放量及其比例呈现逐年增加的趋势,2006年(0.83 Tg,12.7%)超过山羊和绵羊胃肠道CH4排放量及其比例,成为中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放第二大源.但是,奶牛单位产奶量所排放的CH4量逐年降低,表明中国奶牛饲养技术与生产性能不断提高.②中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放格局呈现区域集中特点,主要集中在中西部和北部的各个省份,其中四川、内蒙古、新疆、河南、西藏、山东、河北、黑龙江、云南和甘肃等10个省份的排放量占中国排放总量的50%以上.总之,1990-2010年间,中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放总量为(6.77±0.46) Tg(肉役牛为主要排放源),随时间推移呈现先上升后下降的趋势;中国反刍家畜胃肠道CH4排放的格局呈区域集中分布,中西部和北部的各个省份占60%以上.

  17. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  18. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  19. A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  20. INTERCOMPARISON OF THE INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA SIMULATED BY AOGCMS FROM THE IPCC-DDC

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BAO Ming; HUANG Rong-hui

    2005-01-01

    Simulations of the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall over China are assessed from 5 coupled AOGCMs from the Data Distribution Center (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC) under the IPCC-Special Report in Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenario. We examined their ability in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over China from 1951 to 1990. The difference before and after the mid-1960's and the late 1970's is given respectively to check the capability of the models, especially in reproducing the rainfall jump in North China. We also investigated the interdecadal variations simulated by the models in the 1990's and the average of 2001-2020 in the future under the scenario A2 and B2. The analysis shows that the current AOGCMs is not good enough in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in China. The interdecadal variations of summer rainfall simulated by most of the models cannot reproduce the observation in North China. Higher resolution models are suggested to well simulate the interdecadal variability in regional scale.

  1. Singapore: The Fourth Way in Action?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargreaves, Andy

    2012-01-01

    This article has two main objectives. It first outlines the first three waves of change termed by Hargreaves and Shirley (The Fourth Way: The inspiring future for educational change. Thousand Oaks, CA: Corwin Press, "2009") as the First, Second and Third Way that defined global educational policy and practice since the 1960s. It then…

  2. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  3. Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-15

    emerge in the interior Arctic Ocean, especially over regions where sea ice loss exposes open water. However, this change is not effected by the...htm> Scientific American ("Warming Arctic spurs cyclones and sea ice loss "), < http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/warming- arctic -spurs...cyclones-and-sea- ice - loss /?&WT.mc_id=SA_DD_20140220> Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies at University of Wisconsin feature ("More extreme Arctic

  4. National GHG inventories: Recent developments under the IPCC/OECD Joint Programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morlot, J C; Schwengels, P; Lurding, S

    1994-05-01

    This paper summarises key results of the Joint IPCC/OECD Programme, in particular the draft IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories to be released in January 1994. The focus is on how these results are likely to improve the availability and the quality of national inventories of anthropogenic GHG emission sources and removals by sinks. The IPCC/OECD has already received nearly 50 inventories from 35 countries. Most of the data are for 1988, but some reports cover 1989 and 1990. In addition to CO2, many of these inventories include CH4, N2O, NOx, CO, and NMVOC. Detailed analyses of these inventories have provided valuable insights about the strengths and weaknesses of the national inventories, differences in approach to estimation, reporting, available methods and data. These results in turn, have facilitated the development of the draft Guidelines, most notably the proposed reporting system, and also on estimation methods for the different anthropogenic sources and sinks of GHG. The paper previews key aspects of the draft Guidelines for non-CO2 GHG. Experts are urged to actively participate in the IPCC/OECD Programme to continue to improve inventory methods and overall the Guidelines.

  5. New chairman takes helm at Climate Change Panel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    An Indian industrial engineer and economist who supports the Kyoto Protocol, and who has sharply criticized the administration of George W. Bush on the climate change issue for not doing enough to curb greenhouse gas emissions, won the first-ever contested election for chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during a meeting on 19 April.Rajendra Pachauri is the first representative from a developing country to chair the IPCC, a panel of about 2,500 experts on a wide range of areas related to climate change. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. In total, the IPCC currently includes 192 member states. Although the bulk of the IPCC's work is conducted by three technical working groups, the chairman plays a key role in facilitating the overall process of the IPCC, organizing the scientific debate within the IPCC, and serving as chief spokesman.

  6. Searching for the fourth family quarks through anomalous decays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, M.; Sultansoy, S.; Turkoz, S.

    2010-09-01

    The flavor democracy hypothesis predicts the existence of the fourth standard model family. Because of the high masses of the fourth family quarks, their anomalous decays could be dominant if certain criteria are met. This will drastically change the search strategy at hadron colliders. We show that the fourth standard model family down quarks with masses up to 400-450 GeV can be observed (or excluded) via anomalous decays by Tevatron.

  7. The Fourth (A)ATSR Data Reprocessing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goryl, Philippe; Cocevar, Pauline; Done, Fay; Aatsr Quality Working Group

    2016-08-01

    This paper aims to inform users of the upcoming Fourth Reprocessing of ATSR-1, ATSR-2 and AATSR data. The main objective of the Fourth Reprocessing is to generate (A)ATSR Level 1B data products in a similar format to SLSTR products from Sentinel-3. In this way, users can easily access the 20-year dataset from the ERS and ENVISAT (A)ATSR missions and carry the analysis forward into the Sentinel era. In addition to the product format change, the dataset will build on the improvements implemented in the Third Reprocessing, and will contain further improvements and enhancements, as described below.

  8. Fourth Generation Leptons and Muon $g-2$

    CERN Document Server

    Hou, Wei-Shu; Ma, Chien-Yi

    2008-01-01

    We consider the contributions to $g_\\mu-2$ from fourth generation heavy neutral and charged leptons, $N$ and $E$, at the one-loop level. Diagrammatically, there are two types of contributions: boson-boson-$N$, and $E$-$E$-boson in the loop diagram. In general, the effect from $N$ is suppressed by off-diagonal lepton mixing matrix elements. For $E$, we consider flavor changing neutral couplings arising from various New Physics models, which are stringently constrained by $\\mu\\to e\\gamma$. We assess how the existence of a fourth generation would affect these New Physics models.

  9. Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrus, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Although impending Arctic climate change is widely recognized, a wild card in its expression is how extreme weather events in this region will respond to greenhouse warming. Intense polar cyclones represent one type of high-latitude phenomena falling into this category, including very deep synoptic-scale cyclones and mesoscale polar lows. These systems inflict damage through high winds, heavy precipitation, and wave action along coastlines, and their impact is expected to expand in the future, when reduced sea ice cover allows enhanced wave energy. The loss of a buffering ice pack could greatly increase the rate of coastal erosion, which has already been increasing in the Arctic. These and related threats may amplify if extreme Arctic cyclones become more frequent and/or intense in a warming climate with much more open water to fuel them. This possibility has merit on the basis of GCM experiments, which project that greenhouse forcing causes lower mean sea level pressure (SLP) in the Arctic and a strengthening of the deepest storms over boreal high latitudes. In this study, the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model output is used to investigate the following questions: (1) What are the spatial and seasonal characteristics of extreme Arctic cyclones? (2) How well do GCMs simulate these phenomena? (3) Are Arctic cyclones already showing the expected response to greenhouse warming in climate models? To address these questions, a retrospective analysis is conducted of the transient 20th century simulations among the CMIP5 GCMs (spanning years 1850-2005). The results demonstrate that GCMs are able to reasonably represent extreme Arctic cyclones and that the simulated characteristics do not depend significantly on model resolution. Consistent with observational evidence, climate models generate these storms primarily during winter and within the climatological Aleutian and Icelandic Low regions. Occasionally the cyclones remain very intense

  10. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  11. Development of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cattle from Benin using IPCC Tier 2 methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouazounde, J B; Gbenou, J D; Babatounde, S; Srivastava, N; Eggleston, S H; Antwi, C; Baah, J; McAllister, T A

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study was to develop emission factors (EF) for methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation in cattle native to Benin. Information on livestock characteristics and diet practices specific to the Benin cattle population were gathered from a variety of sources and used to estimate EF according to Tier 2 methodology of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Most cattle from Benin are Bos taurus represented by Borgou, Somba and Lagune breeds. They are mainly multi-purpose, being used for production of meat, milk, hides and draft power and grazed in open pastures and crop lands comprising tropical forages and crops. Estimated enteric CH4 EFs varied among cattle breeds and subcategory owing to differences in proportions of gross energy intake expended to meet maintenance, production and activity. EFs ranged from 15.0 to 43.6, 16.9 to 46.3 and 24.7 to 64.9 kg CH4/head per year for subcategories of Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. Average EFs for cattle breeds were 24.8, 29.5 and 40.2 kg CH4/head per year for Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. The national EF for cattle from Benin was 39.5 kg CH4/head per year. This estimated EF was 27.4% higher than the default EF suggested by IPCC for African cattle with the exception of dairy cattle. The outcome of the study underscores the importance of obtaining country-specific EF to estimate global enteric CH4 emissions.

  12. Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

    2014-05-01

    As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

  13. Time Series of Aerosol Column Optical Depth at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Fourth Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C Flynn; AS Koontz; JH Mather

    2009-09-01

    The uncertainties in current estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are dominated by the effects of aerosols, both in relation to the direct absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols and also with respect to aerosol-related changes in cloud formation, longevity, and microphysics (See Figure 1; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 4, 2008). Moreover, the Arctic region in particular is especially sensitive to changes in climate with the magnitude of temperature changes (both observed and predicted) being several times larger than global averages (Kaufman et al. 2009). Recent studies confirm that aerosol-cloud interactions in the arctic generate climatologically significant radiative effects equivalent in magnitude to that of green house gases (Lubin and Vogelmann 2006, 2007). The aerosol optical depth is the most immediate representation of the aerosol direct effect and is also important for consideration of aerosol-cloud interactions, and thus this quantity is essential for studies of aerosol radiative forcing.

  14. “管理极端气候事件和灾害风险特别报告”对我国的启示%The Implications on China' s Disaster Prevention and Mitigation from IPCC Special Report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘冰; 薛澜

    2012-01-01

    政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最新发布的"管理极端气候事件和灾害风险促进气候变化适应特别报告决策者摘要(SREX)"从"极端气候事件+脆弱性+暴露程度"的角度剖析了灾害风险的根源,综合考虑了气候、环境、社会经济条件等因素,提出了管理灾害风险和适应气候变化的各种政策选项,对于我国把风险管理纳入应对气候变化行动的整体框架提供了重要的科学依据。本文基于特别报告的主要结论,结合我国防灾减灾工作的实际情况,提出加快社会经济发展、实现社会系统重构、发挥政策协同效应是今后防灾减灾工作的重要着力点。%The newly issued Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) analyzes the root of disaster risks from three perspectives of "extreme climate events, vulnerability and exposure". It considers factors such as climatic, environmental and socio - economic conditions, and puts forward various policy options for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. This report provides scientific evidence for integrating risk management into the action framework of addressing climate change in China. This article provides a synthesis of the main conclusions of the report. Based on the actual situation of China' s disaster prevention and reduction efforts, the article makes several policy recommendations, including 1 ) speeding up socio - economic development, 2) promoting social and institutional innovation and transformation, and 3 ) developing policy synergy across different policy arenas related to disaster prevention and reduction.

  15. Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

    2012-09-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

  16. Fourth Order Theories Without Ghosts

    CERN Document Server

    Mannheim, P D; Mannheim, Philip D.; Davidson, Aharon

    2000-01-01

    Using the Dirac constraint method we show that the pure fourth-order Pais-Uhlenbeck oscillator model is free of observable negative norm states. Even though such ghosts do appear when the fourth order theory is coupled to a second order one, the limit in which the second order action is switched off is found to be a highly singular one in which these states move off shell. Given this result, construction of a fully unitary, renormalizable, gravitational theory based on a purely fourth order action in 4 dimensions now appears feasible.

  17. On a fourth order superlinear elliptic problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ramos

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove the existence of a nonzero solution for the fourth order elliptic equation $$Delta^2u= mu u +a(xg(u$$ with boundary conditions $u=Delta u=0$. Here, $mu$ is a real parameter, $g$ is superlinear both at zero and infinity and $a(x$ changes sign in $Omega$. The proof uses a variational argument based on the argument by Bahri-Lions cite{BL}.

  18. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  19. Fourth Light at Paranal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-01

    VLT YEPUN Joins ANTU, KUEYEN and MELIPAL It was a historical moment last night (September 3 - 4, 2000) in the VLT Control Room at the Paranal Observatory , after nearly 15 years of hard work. Finally, four teams of astronomers and engineers were sitting at the terminals - and each team with access to an 8.2-m telescope! From now on, the powerful "Paranal Quartet" will be observing night after night, with a combined mirror surface of more than 210 m 2. And beginning next year, some of them will be linked to form part of the unique VLT Interferometer with unparalleled sensitivity and image sharpness. YEPUN "First Light" Early in the evening, the fourth 8.2-m Unit Telescope, YEPUN , was pointed to the sky for the first time and successfully achieved "First Light". Following a few technical exposures, a series of "first light" photos was made of several astronomical objects with the VLT Test Camera. This instrument was also used for the three previous "First Light" events for ANTU ( May 1998 ), KUEYEN ( March 1999 ) and MELIPAL ( January 2000 ). These images served to evaluate provisionally the performance of the new telescope, mainly in terms of mechanical and optical quality. The ESO staff were very pleased with the results and pronounced YEPUN fit for the subsequent commissioning phase. When the name YEPUN was first given to the fourth VLT Unit Telescope, it was supposed to mean "Sirius" in the Mapuche language. However, doubts have since arisen about this translation and a detailed investigation now indicates that the correct meaning is "Venus" (as the Evening Star). For a detailed explanation, please consult the essay On the Meaning of "YEPUN" , now available at the ESO website. The first images At 21:39 hrs local time (01:39 UT), YEPUN was turned to point in the direction of a dense Milky Way field, near the border between the constellations Sagitta (The Arrow) and Aquila (The Eagle). A guide star was acquired and the active optics system quickly optimized the

  20. 一类四阶边值问题的变号解%Sign-changing Solutions to Fourth-order Boundary Value Problem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李宇华

    2011-01-01

    The problem U(4) (t) = f (t ,U) , t ∈ (o, 1) with the boundary value conditions u″ (0) = u″ (1) = O ,u (O)=u(l) =O is studied by using topological degree and Morse theory. Under some conditions, we obtain this problem has at least six solutions,including two positive solutions, two negative solutions and two sign-changing solutions.%利用拓扑度理论和Morse理论研究方程u(4)(t)=f(t,u),t∈(0,1),且带有边界条件u"(0)=u"(1)=0,u(0)=u(1)=0.在一定条件下,得到此问题有六个解,其中两个正解,两个负解,两个变号解.

  1. Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

  2. Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

  3. Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

    2015-04-01

    The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

  4. Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, P. G.

    2012-12-01

    One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

  5. Fandom and the fourth wall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenna Kathryn Ballinger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available I use the Teen Wolf fandom as an example to examine the ways social media has created a more complicated, nuanced relationship with fans. The collapse of the fourth wall between fans and The Powers That Be can have both positive and negative impacts, depending on the willingness of participants to maintain mutual respect and engage in meaningful dialogue.

  6. Response of hydrological processes to climate change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, X.; Cui, X.; Yu, J.; Sun, W.

    2015-05-01

    According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in the future. As a sensitive region to climate change, hydrological process in the middle reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly affected by climate change. In this study, water resources change in the future for a typical basin there: Lushi basin is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Downscaled ensemble output from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s was input to SWAT as the regional climate change scenario. The prediction shows that ET of this basin increases in winter and spring, and decreases in summer and autumn, and the streamflow increases throughout the year. The increased streamflow will probably improve the water demand guarantee and be conducive to crop growth in winter and spring, and may improve the flood risk in summer.

  7. Fourth Generation Leptons and Muon $g-2$

    CERN Document Server

    Hou, Wei-Shu; Ma, Chien-Yi

    2008-01-01

    We consider the contributions to $g_\\mu-2$ from fourth generation neutral and charged leptons, $N$ and $E$, at the one-loop level. Diagramatically, there are two types of contributions: boson-boson-$N$, and $E$-$E$-boson in the loop diagram. In general, the effect from $N$ is suppressed by off-diagonal PMNS matrix element $V_{N\\mu}$, from the Standard Model to the Two-Higgs Doublet Models. With contribution from $E$, we consider flavor changing neutral couplings.

  8. 基于 IPCC 预测结果的北太平洋海表面温度变化分析%Variation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific based on different IPCC scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘娜; 王辉; 张蕴斐

    2014-01-01

    Using the multi-model datasets of 20C3M and the SRESA1B scenario projection from Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison for IPCC-AR4,we have investigated the sea surface temperature (SST)chan-ges in the North Pacific and its response to wind stress changes in the North Pacific under different atmospheric greenhouse gases scenarios.The analysis shows that the SST will increase in most parts of the North Pacific as a result of the effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentration,with the maximum increasing center located along the Kuroshio Extension region.We conclude that the warming in the SRESA1B scenario over the North Pacific espe-cially along the Kuroshio Extension might be attributable to the stronger easterlies prevail in the central Pacific and poleward shift of the zero wind stress curl line.This Ekman response is local and fast.On the other hand,because the zero wind stress curl line displaced to higher latitudes,it generates stronger Kuroshio and its extention.It also generates anomalous Rossby waves at the latitude of zero wind stress curl line which propagate to the west.The Rossby waves change the thermocline in the Kuroshio Extension region and eventually warm the SST.The chan-ges of wind stress in the interior North Pacific eventually generate SST warm anomalies in the Kuroshio Extension region several years later.%利用 IPCC-AR4气候模式诊断与比较计划(PCMDI)20C3M 试验和 A1B 情景试验模拟数据,研究了在温室气体排放情景下,北太平洋海表面温度的变化及其对太平洋风应力旋度变化的响应。结果表明,温室气体中等排放 A1B 情景与20C3M 情景相比,北太平洋年平均海表面温度表现为一致增温的趋势,且最大的增温中心位于黑潮及其延伸体区。与20C3M 试验相比,CO2增加情景下北太平洋中部东风加强,增加向北的 Ekman 输送,使得北太平洋内区增温。风应力旋度零线也向北略有移动,导致黑潮

  9. Geoethics disgraced by Copernicus in its desperate act of covering up for the IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    All my life I have put observational facts in the centre. This is what Leonardo da Vinci called "to read the book of mother Earth". For a geologist this is very natural because this is the core of the geological profession. The IPCC, on the other hand, put all credits on models and scenarios. One of its founders and its first president, Bert Bolin, at a debate in the Geophysical Society of Sweden in 2001, admitted (quotation): "you can order whatever scenario you wish". With this as a background, we can put a recent action by Copernicus at a test with respect to geoethics and normal decency. The idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts". The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system. This may be held as a benchmark event in our understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. Furthermore, they noted two implications of this: partly that the old hypothesis was now lifted to a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm, and partly that we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC". "We were alarmed by the second implication", Martin Rasmussen, VD of Copernicus, stated, and took the unbelievable decision immediately to close down the entire journal. This happened on January 17 without any discussion

  10. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

  11. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  12. Simulation evaluation and future prediction of the IPCC-AR4 GCMs on the extreme temperatures in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ji; JIANG Zhihong; SONG Jie; LOU Dejun

    2008-01-01

    On the basis of the temperature observations during 1961-2000 in China, seven coupled general circulation models' (GCMs) extreme temperature products are evaluated supplied by the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change's 4th Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). The extreme temperature indices in use are frost days (FD), growing season length (GSL), extreme tempera-ture range (ETR), warm nights (TN90), and heat wave duration index (HWDI). Results indicate that all the seven models are capable of simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperature characteristics, and their ensemble acts more reliable than any single one. Among the seven models, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2 performances are much better. Besides, most of the mod-els are able to present linear trends of the same positive/negative signs as the observations but for weaker intensities. The simula-tion effects are different on a nationwide basis, with 110°N as the division, east (west) of which the effects are better (worse) and the poorer over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China. The predictions for the 21st century on emissions scenarios show that except decreases in the FD and ETR, other indices display significant increasing trend, especially for the indices of HWDI and TN90, which represent the notable extreme climate. This indicates that the temperature-related climate is moving towards the ex-treme. In the late 21st century, the GSL and TN90 (HWDI) increase most notably in southwest China (the Qinghai--Tibetan Plateau), and the FD decrease most remarkably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, northwest and northeast of China. Apart from South China, the yearly change range of the extreme temperature is reduced in most of China.

  13. The fourth generation in supergravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enqvist, K.; Nanopoulos, D. V.; Zwirner, F.

    1985-12-01

    We consider model-independent constraints on the fourth-generation fermion masses and the magnitude of the D-term contribution to the scalar masses. We find that the ratio of vacuum expectation values is limited to the range 1/5 ~ 150 GeV. A general feature of the four-generation models is thus a heavy spectrum of sparticles. On leave from International School for Advanced Studies, Trieste, and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Padua, Italy.

  14. The Fourth Way in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesa Iitti

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the general history of the Fourth Way in Finland. The Fourth Way, or simply ‘the Work’, began as a Greco-Armenian man named Georges Ivanovich Gurdjieff (1866?–1949 gathered groups of pupils in St Petersburg and Moscow in 1912. To these groups, Gurdjieff started to teach what he had learned and synthesized between ca 1896 and 1912 during his travels on spiritual search of Egypt, Crete, Sumeria, Assyria, the Holy Land, Mecca, Ethiopia, Sudan, India, Afghanistan, the northern valleys of Siberia, and Tibet. Neither Gurdjieff nor any of his disciples called themselves a church, a sect, or anything alike, but referred to themselves simply as ‘the Work’, or as ‘the Fourth Way’. The name ‘the Fourth Way’ originates in a Gurdjieffian view that there are essentially three traditional ways of spiritual work: those of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi. These ways do not literally refer to the activities of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi, but to similar types of spiritual work emphasizing exercise of emotion, body, or mind. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. It is a unique combination of cosmology, psychology, theory of evolution, and overall theory and practise aiming to help individ­uals in their efforts towards what is called ‘self-remembering’.

  15. Stratospheric Temperature Changes and Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yongyun; XIA Yan; GAO Mei; LU Daren

    2009-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3) used in the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.

  16. Fourth Way in Action? The Evolution of Singapore's Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopinathan, Saravanan

    2012-01-01

    Hargreaves and Shirley's "The Fourth Way" offers a valuable framework for considering the challenges and dilemmas that confront education change practitioners. In this article, I consider how well their framework fits the evolution and more recent changes in Singapore education. History, context culture and aspirations are seen as…

  17. The Copyright Book: A Practical Guide. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, William S.

    In response to important changes in copyright law as the United States accommodates itself to the Berne Convention and develops means to take account of new technologies, this guide puts these changes in a form and context that will make sense to persons who are concerned about their rights under the law. New material in the fourth edition of this…

  18. Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruosteenoja, K.; Carter, T.R.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.

    2003-07-01

    Projections of changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation for three 30-year periods during the 21st century in 32 sub-continental scale regions are presented. This information may offer useful guidance on the selection of climate scenarios for regional impact studies. The climate changes have been simulated by seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing being inferred from the SRES emission scenarios A1F1, A2, B1 and B2. For a majority of the AOGCMs, simulations have only been conducted for scenarios A2 and B2. Projections for other scenarios were then extrapolated from the available runs applying a pattern-scaling technique. In tests, this method proved to be fairly accurate, the correlation between the AOGCM-simulated and the corresponding pattern-scaled response to the A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century being generally {approx} 0.97 - 0.99 for temperature and {approx} 0.9 or higher for precipitation. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation are presented in the form of 384 scatter diagrams. The model-simulated temperature changes were almost invariably statistically significant, i.e., they fell clearly outside the natural multi-decadal variability derived from 1000-year unforced coupled AOGCM simulations. For precipitation, fewer modelled changes were statistically significant, especially in the earliest projection period 2010-2039. Differences in the projections given by various models were substantial, of the same order of magnitude by the end of the century as differences among the responses to separate forcing scenarios. Nevertheless, the surface air temperature increased in all regions and seasons. For precipitation, changes with both sign occurred, but an increase of regional precipitation was more common than a decrease. All models simulate higher precipitation at high latitudes and enhanced summer monsoon precipitation for Southern and Eastern Asia. There

  19. Methane production as a result from rumen fermentation in cattle calculated by using the IPCC-GPG tier 2 method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink W; Pellikaan WF; Kolk LJ van der; Hoek KW van der; LVM

    2005-01-01

    Following the IPCC GPG Guidelines the enteric fermentation emission is calculated as a percentage of the gross energy intake in cattle feedstuffs. The energy consumption for maintenance, activity, growth, lactation and pregnancy is described in detail. Combining this with the average rations for cat

  20. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Long, Charles N.; Wang, Hailong; Comstock, Jennifer M.; McFarlane, Sally A.; Xie, Shaocheng

    2012-02-17

    Cloud Fraction (CF) is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulations in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM ground measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity, for both inter-model deviation and model-measurement discrepancy. Our intercomparisons of three CF or sky-cover related dataset reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5%) for multi-year monthly (annual) mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The results also show that the model-observation and the inter-model deviations have a similar magnitude for the total CF (TCF) and the normalized cloud effect, and they are twice as large as the surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that the other cloud properties, such as cloud optical depth and height, have a similar magnitude of disparity to TCF among the GCMs, and suggests that a better agreement among the GCMs in solar radiative fluxes could be the result of compensating errors in either cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. Similar deviation pattern between inter-model and model-measurement suggests that the climate models tend to generate larger bias against observations for those variables with larger inter-model deviation. The simulated TCF from IPCC AR4 GCMs are very scattered through all seasons over three ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP), Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA). The GCMs perform better at SGP than at Manus and NSA in simulating the seasonal variation and probability distribution of TCF; however, the TCF in these models is remarkably underpredicted and cloud transmissivity is less susceptible to the change of TCF than the observed at SGP. Much larger inter-model deviation and model bias are found over NSA than the other sites in estimating the TCF, cloud transmissivity and cloud-radiation interaction

  1. The fourth dimension simply explained

    CERN Document Server

    Manning, Henry P

    2005-01-01

    To remove the contents of an egg without puncturing its shell or to drink the liquor in a bottle without removing the cork is clearly unthinkable - or is it? Understanding the world of Einstein and curved space requires a logical conception of the fourth dimension.This readable, informative volume provides an excellent introduction to that world, with 22 essays that employ a minimum of mathematics. Originally written for a contest sponsored by Scientific American, these essays are so well reasoned and lucidly written that they were judged to merit publication in book form. Their easily unders

  2. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  3. Towards developing IPCC methane ‘emission factors’ for peatlands (organic soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available (1 Huge reductions of carbon dioxide (CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O effluxes can be attained by rewetting drained peatlands, but this will increase methane (CH4 effluxes.(2 The scientific data base for methane effluxes from peatlands is much larger than that for CO2 or N2O. Once anoxic conditions are provided, the availability of fresh plant material is the major factor in methane production. Old (recalcitrant peat plays only a subordinate role in gas efflux.(3 The annual mean water level is a surprisingly good indicator for methane effluxes, but at high water levels the cover of aerenchymous shunts (gas conductive plant tissue becomes a better proxy. Ideally, both water level and cover of aerenchymous shunts should be assessed to arrive at robust estimates of methane effluxes.(4 The available data provide sufficient guidance for arriving at moderately accurate (Tier 1 estimates consistent with IPCC methodologies. For more accurate estimation (higher tier approaches, vegetation provides a promising basis for development of more detailed efflux factors. Vegetation is a good proxy for mean water levels and can provide - with extra attention to aerenchymous shunts - a robust proxy for accurate and spatially explicit estimates of methane effluxes over large areas.

  4. Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, V; Dell'Aquila, A; Ruti, P M; Speranza, A; Aquila, Alessandro Dell'; Calmanti, Sandro; Lucarini, Valerio; Ruti, Paolo M.; Speranza, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat u...

  5. Energetics of IPCC4AR Climate Models: Energy Balance and Meridional Enthalpy Transports

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    We consider the climate simulations performed using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios and analyse the outputs of the state-of-the-art models included in IPCC4AR. For control simulations, large energy biases are present for several models both when global climate budgets and when energy budgets of the atmospheric, oceanic, and land subdomains are considered. The energy biases depend on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components of the climate system and on issues in the treatment of phase transitions and heat fluxes over land. Additionally, the consequence of a positive global energy bias, which is what most models feature, is the underestimation of the thermodynamic emission temperature of the planet and of the globally averaged surface temperature. This may help explaining the cold bias of climate models. Models agree on the representation of meridional enthalpy transports in terms of location of the peaks of the total and atmospheric transports, whereas quantitative disagreements o...

  6. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  7. The Use of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for Initializing and Evaluating IPCC Decadal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Hoar, T. J.; Collins, N.

    2010-12-01

    DART (www.image.ucar.edu/DAReS/DART) is a general purpose, freely available, ensemble Kalman filter, data assimilation system, which is being used to generate state-of-the-art, partially coupled, ocean-atmosphere re-analyses in support of the decadal predictions planned for the next IPCC report. The resulting gridded product is directly comparable to the state variables output by POP and CAM (oceanic and atmospheric components of NCAR's Community Earth System Model climate model) because those are the assimilating models. Other models could also benefit from comparison against these reanalyses, since the ocean analyses are at the leading edge of ocean state estimation, and the atmospheric analyses are competitive with operational centers'. Such comparisons can reveal model biases and predictability characteristics, and do so in a quantitative way, since the ensemble nature of the analyses provides an objective estimate of the analysis error. The analyses will also be used as initial conditions for the decadal forecasts because they are the most realistic available. The generation of such analyses has revealed errors in model formulation for several versions of the finite volume core CAM, which has led to model improvements in each case. New models can be incorporated into DART in a matter of weeks, allowing them to be compared directly against available observations. The observations currently used in the assimilations include, for the ocean; temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Database (floats, drifters, moorings, autonomous pinipeds, and others), and for the atmosphere; temperature and winds from radiosondes, satellite drift winds, ACARS and aircraft. Observations of ocean currents and atmospheric moisture and pressure are also available. Global Positioning System profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture are available for recent years. All that is required to add new observations to the suite is the forward operator, which generates an estimate

  8. Methane production as a result from rumen fermentation in cattle calculated by using the IPCC-GPG tier 2 method

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    Following the IPCC GPG Guidelines the enteric fermentation emission is calculated as a percentage of the gross energy intake in cattle feedstuffs. The energy consumption for maintenance, activity, growth, lactation and pregnancy is described in detail. Combining this with the average rations for cattle the methane emissions are calculated. The report presents for the period 1990-2002 for all cattle categories the methane emission resulting from enteric fermentation.

  9. Fourth Lepton Family is Natural in Technicolor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    T. Frandsen, Mads; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    structure with and without mixing with the Standard Model families. We also analyze the LHC potential to observe the fourth lepton family in tandem with the new composite Higgs dynamics. We finally introduce a model uniting the fourth lepton family and the technifermion sector at higher energies.......Imagine to discover a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address...

  10. Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Xiaolin; WANGF Fan; TANG Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS)is possibly strengthened under the global wanning scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years' temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0℃ and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5℃.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.

  11. Osteoblastic meningioma of the fourth ventricle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M D; Tulipan, N; Whetsell, W O

    1989-04-01

    Meningiomas of the fourth ventricle are rare neoplasms. Only meningothelial and fibroblastic subtypes, purportedly arising from the tela choroidea, have been described. In this report we describe clinical, neuroradiological and pathological findings in a 52-year-old man with mild hydrocephalus produced by a large, calcified, osteoblastic meningioma of the fourth ventricle.

  12. Climate in peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports; Klimaet i fare. En innfoering i de siste rapportene fra FNs klimapanel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirby, Alex

    2009-07-01

    The climate in peril is an introduction to the latest reports from the IPCC. The booklet has been produced through a collaboration between the Norwegian Pollution Control Authority, UNEP, Grid Arendal and the Swedish Environmental Protection. The introduction presents the conclusions of recent reports of the IPCC, but simplifies the language, and also contains a lot of new graphics that make climate science easily accessible to readers without scientific backgrounds. (AG)

  13. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer; Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, waar? Het IPCC rapport geeft het antwoord

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeiler, W. [Kropman, Rijswijk (Netherlands)

    2007-09-15

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity. [Dutch] Het klimaat verandert. De gemiddelde temperatuur stijgt. Er komen vaker en vaker extreme weersomstandigheden voor. Denk in Nederland aan de hittegolven en de droogte van de zomer 2003 en aan de vele regenbuien in augustus 2004, de natste augustus maand in 150 jaar. Vooral de mensen in ontwikkelingslanden en de mensen in kwetsbare gebieden zoals Nededand zullen het meest worden getroffen door de gevolgen van klimaatverandering. Ook de natuur zal ingrijpend veranderen. Bepaalde plant- en diersoorten zullen uitsterven andere zullen gaan overwoekeren. De diversiteit zal sterk afnemen.

  14. Predicted risk of cobalt deficiency in grazing sheep from a geochemical survey; communicating uncertainty with the IPCC verbal scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Ander, E. L.; Cave, M. R.; Knights, K. V.; Glennon, M. M.; Scanlon, R. P.

    2014-05-01

    Deficiency or excess of certain trace elements in the soil causes problems for agriculture, including disorders of grazing ruminants. Farmers and their advisors in Ireland use index values for the concentration of total soil cobalt and manganese to identify where grazing sheep are at risk of cobalt deficiency. We used cokriging with topsoil data from a regional geochemical survey across six counties of Ireland to form local cokriging predictions of cobalt and manganese concentrations with an attendant distribution which reflects the joint uncertainty of these predictions. From this distribution we then computed conditional probabilities for different combinations of cobalt and manganese index values, and so for the corresponding inferred risk to sheep of cobalt deficiency and the appropriateness of different management interventions. The challenge is to communicate these results effectively to an audience comprising, inter alia, farmers, agronomists and veterinarians. Numerical probabilities are not generally well-understood by non-specialists. For this reason we presented our results as maps using a verbal scale to communicate the probability that a deficiency is indicated by local soil conditions, or that a particular intervention is indicated. In the light of recent research on the effectiveness of the verbal scale used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to communicate probabilistic information we reported the geostatistical predictions as follows. First, we use the basic IPCC scale with intensifiers, but we also indicate the corresponding probabilities (as percentages) as recommended by Budescu et al. (2009). Second, we make it clear that the source of uncertainty in these predictions is the spatial variability of soil Co and Mn. The outcome under consideration is therefore that a particular soil management scenario would be indicated if the soil properties were known without error, possible uncertainty about the implications of particular soil

  15. An IPCC-Compliant Technique for Forest Carbon Stock Assessment Using Airborne LiDAR-Derived Tree Metrics and Competition Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinsu Lin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study developed an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change compliant method for the estimation of above-ground carbon (AGC in forest stands using remote sensing technology. A multi-level morphological active contour (MMAC algorithm was employed to obtain tree-level metrics (tree height (LH, crown radius (LCR, competition index (LCI, and stem diameter (LDBH from an airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height model. Seven biomass-based AGC models and 13 volume-based AGC models were developed using a training dataset and validated using a separate validation dataset. Four accuracy measures, mean absolute error (MAE, root-mean-square error (RMSE, percentage RMSE (PRMSE, and root-mean-square percentage error (RMSPE were calculated for each of the 20 models. These measures were transformed into a new index, accuracy improvement percentage (AIP, for post hoc testing of model performance in estimating forest stand AGC stock. Results showed that the tree-level AGC models explained 84% to 91% of the variance in tree-level AGC within the training dataset. Prediction errors (RMSEs for these models ranged between 15 ton/ha and 210 ton/ha in mature forest stands, which is equal to an error percentage in the range 6% to 86%. At the stand-level, several models achieved accurate and reliable predictions of AGC stock. Some models achieved 90% to 95% accuracy, which was equal to or superior to the R-squared of the tree-level AGC models. The first recommended model was a biomass-based model using the metrics LDBH, LH, and LCI and the others were volume-based models using LH, LCI, and LCR and LDBH and LH. One metric, LCI, played a critical role in upgrading model performance when banded together with LH and LCR or LDBH and LCR. We conclude by proposing an IPCC-compatible method that is suitable for calculating tree-level AGC and predicting AGC stock of forest stands from airborne LiDAR data.

  16. Fourth Generation Warfare and Its Impact on the Army

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    In 1989, the authors of an article entitled, "The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation ," offered a glimpse of the future rooted in the...decline of the West in a world rife with cultural conflicts and the powerful influences of a form of cultural Marxism known as political correctness...were combining in America to create conditions for a new generation of warfare. Their vision included a form of warfare that bypassed the military

  17. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM long-term ground-based measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Comparisons are performed for three climate regimes as represented by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. Our intercomparisons of three independent measurements of CF or sky-cover reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5% for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The total sky imager (TSI produces smaller total cloud fraction (TCF compared to a radar/lidar dataset for highly cloudy days (CF > 0.8, but produces a larger TCF value than the radar/lidar for less cloudy conditions (CF < 0.3. The compensating errors in lower and higher CF days result in small biases of TCF between the vertically pointing radar/lidar dataset and the hemispheric TSI measurements as multi-year data is averaged. The unique radar/lidar CF measurements enable us to evaluate seasonal variation of cloud vertical structures in the GCMs.

    Both inter-model deviation and model bias against observation are investigated in this study. Another unique aspect of this study is that we use simultaneous measurements of CF and surface radiative fluxes to diagnose potential discrepancies among the GCMs in representing other cloud optical properties than TCF. The results show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are larger than those in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other dimensions of cloud in addition to cloud amount, such as cloud optical thickness and

  18. Alarmist misrepresentations of the findings of the latest scientific assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2007-08-15

    The alarmist propaganda following release of the Policymakers Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1 of the IPCC this year is unjustified. We had this information since 2001, when the Third Assessment Report was released. However, this does not mean that we should ignore the potential consequences of increasing the impact of the current interglacial period. (author)

  19. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  20. The Naturalness of the Fourth SM Family

    CERN Document Server

    Sultansoy, S

    2009-01-01

    The necessity of the fourth family follows from the SM basics. According to flavor democracy the Dirac masses of the fourth SM family fermions are almost equal with preferable value 450 GeV, which corresponds to common (for all fundamental fermions) Yukawa coupling equal to SU(2) gauge coupling gW. In principle, one expect u4 a little bit lighter than d4, while nu4 could be essentially lighter than l4 due to Majorana mass terms for right-handed components of neutrinos. Obviously, the fourth family quarks will be copiously produced at the LHC. However, the first indication of the fourth SM family may be provided by early Higgs boson observation due to almost an order enhancement of the gluon fusion to Higgs cross-section. For the same reason the Tevatron still has a chance to observe the Higgs boson before the LHC. Concerning the fourth family leptons, in general, best place will be NLC/CLIC. However, for some mass regions and MNS matrix elements double discovery of both the nu4 and H could be possible at the ...

  1. Projected 21 st century sea surface temperature over offshore China based on IPCC-CMIP5 models%基于 IPCC-CMIP5预估21世纪中国近海海表温度变化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭红建; 蔡榕硕; 颜秀花

    2016-01-01

    The observations of the increasing greenhouse gases driving the global warming over the past century shows that the warming will continue in the future.In this study,the trend of sea surface temperature (SST)over offshore China in the 21 st century is assessed based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter Comparison Pro-ject (CMIP5).The results show that under the midrange mitigation emissions scenario (RCP4.5),SST over most of offshore China will increase by nearly 1 ℃around the year 2030 relative to the historical period (1 970 ~2005). SST in the middle and high latitudes sea areas will rise faster than that of low latitude.Specifically,the East China Seas (including Bohai sea,Yellow sea and East China sea)will increase by about 1 ℃,2℃,and 3℃ between the period 2030 ~2039,2060 ~2069,and 2090 ~2099,respectively,the magnitude of which are larger than that in the South China Sea.Under the doubled CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5),the Bohai sea SST will rise up by a-bout 5℃ by the end of the 21 st century,and it will be the biggest warming areas in the world.These changes will pose serious risks to marine ecosystems and society on and around offshore China.It is an impress issue to curb the greenhouse gas discharge and bring down the risks of climatic changes.%观测事实表明,近百年来全球气候经历了显著的变暖过程,并且在人类活动排放的 CO2等温室气体不断增加的前提下,未来变暖将会持续下去.利用 IPCC 第五次评估报告中34个 CMIP5模式对于未来不同 CO2排放情景下的输出结果,评估了未来百年中国近海海表温度(SST)的变化趋势.结果表明,基于当前人类的 CO2典型排放速度(RCP4.5),中国近海的大部分海区在2030年以后普遍升温并将接近或超过1℃(相对于1970~2005年的历史海温).其中,中高纬度海区的升温速率最为明显,黄海、渤海和东海的增温幅度明显高于南海,在2030~2039

  2. JACOBI PSEUDOSPECTRAL METHOD FOR FOURTH ORDER PROBLEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng-su Wan; Ben-yu Guo; Zhong-qing Wang

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate Jacobi pseudospectral method for fourth order problems.We establish some basic results on the Jacobi-Gauss-type interpolations in non-uniformly weighted Sobolev spaces, which serve as important tools in analysis of numerical quadratures, and numerical methods of differential and integral equations. Then we propose Jacobi pseudospectral schemes for several singular problems and multiple-dimensional problems of fourth order. Numerical results demonstrate the spectral accuracy of these schemes,and coincide well with theoretical analysis.

  3. US Energy Industry Financial Developments, 1993 fourth quarter, April 1994

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-04-14

    This report traces key financial trends in the US energy industry for the fourth quarter of 1993. Financial data (only available for publicly-traded US companies) are included in two broad groups -- fossil fuel production and rate-regulated electric utilities. All financial data are taken from public sources such as energy industry corporate reports and press releases, energy trade publications, and The Wall Street Journal`s Earnings Digest; return on equity is calculated from data available from Standard and Poor`s Compustat data service. Since several major petroleum companies disclose their income by lines of business and geographic area, these data are also presented in this report. Although the disaggregated income concept varies by company and is not strictly comparable to corporate income, relative movements in income by lines of business and geographic area are summarized as useful indicators of short-term changes in the underlying profitability of these operations. Based on information provided in 1993 fourth quarter financial disclosures, the net income for 82 petroleum companies -- including 18 majors -- was unchanged between the fourth quarter of 1992 and the fourth quarter of 1993. An 18-percent decline in crude oil prices resulted in a deterioration of the performance of upstream (oil and gas production) petroleum companies during the final quarter of 1993. However, prices for refined products fell much less than the price of crude oil, resulting in higher refined product margins and downstream (refining, marketing and transport) petroleum earnings. An increase in refined product demand also contributed to the rise in downstream income.

  4. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Planning in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irizarry-Ortiz, M. M.; Barnes, J. A.; Dessalegne-Agaze, T.; Trimble, P.; Obeysekera, J.

    2008-05-01

    The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) concludes that the "warming of the climate system is unequivocal." The AR4 includes projections of climate change based on General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation results for a series of green-house gas emission scenarios. Volume II of the AR4 report discusses potential impacts of climate change, adaptation measures, and vulnerability of coastal systems and low-lying areas. However, these assessments are limited to potential regional scale impacts and are not detailed nor certain enough to provide meaningful guidance for water resources management and planning at local scales. South Florida is home to 7.5 million people and has one of the most heavily managed water control systems in the world. Given uncertainties in the IPCC predictions, key vulnerabilities must be identified and addressed. Due to its low topographic relief, the region is extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR) with implications for water supply and flood control management. Due to the extremely porous nature of the groundwater system, the main source for water supply in south Florida, saltwater intrusion into coastal wellfields is of concern. SLR also reduces the flood control capacity of coastal gravity structures with serious implications. Precipitation and evapotranspiration are very close in magnitude for south Florida. Changes to either of these components as a result of climate change have implications for water resources planning and management. The south Florida climate is largely influenced by teleconnections to ENSO, AMO, PDO. To the degree that GCMs capture these phenomena, meaningful projections can be made for south Florida. Given uncertainties in GCM predictions for the region, statistical or dynamic downscaling methods may not provide additional value. Therefore, until the state of the science can provide more consistent and meaningful predictions for the region, a wide range of scenarios must be considered and it becomes imperative

  5. A Comprehensive Modeling Study on Regional Climate Model (RCM Application — Regional Warming Projections in Monthly Resolutions under IPCC A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Mujibur Rahman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Some of the major dimensions of climate change include increase in surface temperature, longer spells of droughts in significant portions of the world, associated higher evapotranspiration rates, and so on. It is therefore essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change in terms of global warming. A high resolution limited area Regional Climate Model (RCM can produce reasonably appropriate projections to be used for climate-scenario generation in country-scale. This paper features the development of future surface temperature projections for Bangladesh on monthly resolution for each year from 2011 to 2100 applying Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS, and it explains in detail the modeling processes including the model features, domain size selection, bias identification as well as construction of change field for the concerned climatic variable, in this case, surface temperature. PRECIS was run on a 50 km horizontal grid-spacing under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1B scenario and it was found to perform reasonably well in simulating future surface temperature of Bangladesh. The linear regression between observed and model simulated results of monthly average temperatures, within the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000, gives a high correlation of 0.93. The applied change field in average annual temperature shows only 0.5 °C–1 °C deviation from the observed values over the period from 2005 to 2008. Eventually, from the projected average temperature change during the years 1971–2000, it is apparent that warming in Bangladesh prevails invariably every month, which might eventually result in an average annual increase of 4 °C by the year 2100. Calculated anomalies in country-average annual temperature mostly remain on the positive side throughout the period of 2071–2100 indicating an overall up-shift. Apart from these quantitative analyses of temporal changes of temperature

  6. "Researching" with Third- and Fourth-Graders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, Barbara

    1970-01-01

    In order to instill in children the skills which will be basic to their school experience, words implying a process (such as "hemp,""parasite," and "vanilla") may be "researched" by third and fourth graders through the use of a dictionary, an encyclopedia, a supplementary book on the subject, and an interview with an adult. The child makes a…

  7. The Fourth Basic: Computer Skills. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin County Board of Education, Elizabethtown, KY.

    Traditionally, the fundamental goal of all American education has been to provide students with adequate competencies in reading, writing, and mathematics. A year-long project, conducted at three high schools in Hardin County, Kentucky, provided for the development of a fourth basic: computer skills. Through this project, computer skills were…

  8. Vocabulary Strategies for a Fourth Grade Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Gina

    2012-01-01

    For this project I worked with twelve of my fourth grade students from a local school in the southwestern part of Stokes County, North Carolina on increasing their vocabulary skills through the development and implementation of seven vocabulary strategies. During the Literature Review I came across the following seven strategies: Prediction;…

  9. An experiment with the fourth Futamura projection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glück, Robert

    2010-01-01

    We have experimentally validated the theoretical insight, that a compiler generator is an Ershov generating extension of a program specializer, by showing that an existing offline partial evaluator can perform the fourth Futamura projection. Specifically, an online and an offline partial evaluator...

  10. The Fourth Domain of Educational Objectives: Induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holleman, Wes

    1985-01-01

    Tests the claim to comprehensiveness of Bloom's taxonomy of educational objectives by analyzing educational objectives of some freshmen orientation programs and those connected with human developmental tasks. It is concluded that the taxonomy should be enlarged with a fourth domain: actual induction into tasks for which students are being…

  11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands: summary Report 1990-1997 (IPCC Tables 7A)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; Spakman J; Berg JC van den; LAE

    1999-01-01

    This report documents the Netherlands' annual greenhouse gas emission inventory submitted for 1998 according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Emissions of CO2 and N2O increased from 1990 to 1997 (with a

  12. The Effects of Background Music in the Classroom on the Productivity, Motivation, and Behavior of Fourth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Kevin N.

    2007-01-01

    Many students in a fourth grade classroom at Logan Elementary School are expressing numerous types of negative behaviors, are not motivated to learn, and do not stay on-task. In an effort to change these students, an action research study was conducted that implemented background music in the classroom. There were ten fourth grade students who…

  13. Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 – 5FL1 time series from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. R. Petrescu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all world countries. Parties to UNFCCC are required to provide periodic estimates of GHG emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The aim of the current study is comparing the IPCC GPG 2003 and the IPCC AFOLU 2006 by calculating the C stock changes in living forest biomass, and then using computed results to extend the EDGAR database. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level, i.e. using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the GEZ Ecological Zone map in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for Gains, Harvest, Net Deforestation and Fires (GFED3, for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two set of IPCC guidance differed by about 40%, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the results using IPCC AFOLU 2006 for Annex I countries are compared to other international datasets (UNFCCC, FAO or scientific publications, it emerges a significant overestimation of the sink. For developing countries, we conclude that C stock change in forest remaining forest can hardly be estimated with Tier 1 method. Overall, confronting the IPCC 2003 and 2006 methodologies we conclude that IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR and provide a consistent global picture of C stock changes in living forest biomass independent of

  14. The First Woman Doctor in the New Fourth Army

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1995-01-01

    WHILE a university student in Kuomintang-controlled Shanghai, she met a Communist who changed her life. This man set her on the way to become the first woman doctor in the Communist New Fourth Army. Zhang Yangfen now enjoys her old age in peace and satisfaction with her fruitful life. Sitting under the grape arbor in her courtyard, Zhang recalls her past. Every Common Person Has Her Obligation To the Country My childhood was spent in the years when China was in a desperate situation and people were living in dire poverty.

  15. Fourth-order master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator coupled to an electromagnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul

    Using Krylov averaging method, we have derived a fourth-order master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator weakly coupled to an electromagnetic field. Interaction is assumed to be of velocity coupling type which also takes into account the diagmagnetic term. Exact analytical expressions have been obtained for the second, the third and the fourth-order corrections to the diffusion and the drift terms of the master equation. We examined the validity range of the second order master equation in terms of the coupling constant and the bath cutoff frequency and found that for the most values of those parameters, the contribution from the third and the fourth order terms have opposite signs and cancel each other. Inclusion of the third and the fourth-order terms is found to not change the structure of the master equation. Bolu, Turkey.

  16. Ship accessibility predictions for the Arctic Ocean based on IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Jai-Ho; Woo, Sumin; Yang, Sin-Il

    2017-02-01

    Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice, which have resulted from climate change, offer new opportunities to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP) for shipping. However, choosing to navigate the Arctic Ocean remains challenging due to the limited accessibility of ships and the balance between economic gain and potential risk. As a result, more precise and detailed information on both weather and sea ice change in the Arctic are required. In this study, a high-resolution global AGCM was used to provide detailed information on the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice. For this simulation, we have simulated the AMIP-type simulation for the present-day climate during 31 years from 1979 to 2009 with observed SST and Sea Ice concentration. For the future climate projection, we have performed the historical climate during 1979-2005 and subsequently the future climate projection during 2010-2099 with mean of four CMIP5 models due to the two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). First, the AMIP-type simulation was evaluated by comparison with observations from the Hadley Centre sea-ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) dataset. The model reflects the maximum (in March) and minimum (in September) sea ice extent and annual cycle. Based on this validation, the future sea ice extents show the decreasing trend for both the maximum and minimum seasons and RCP 8.5 shows more sharply decreasing patterns of sea ice than RCP 4.5. Under both scenarios, ships classified as Polar Class (PC) 3 and Open-Water (OW) were predicted to have the largest and smallest number of ship-accessible days (in any given year) for the NSR and NWP, respectively. Based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, the projections suggest that after 2070, PC3 and PC6 vessels will have year-round access across to the Arctic Ocean. In contrast, OW vessels will continue to have a seasonal handicap, inhibiting their ability to pass through the NSR and NWP.

  17. Regional Simulation of Maize Yield Under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios%IPCC SRES A2和B2情景下我国玉米产量变化模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊伟; 许呤隆; 林而达; 卢志光

    2005-01-01

    利用最新的温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式和区域作物模型模拟了未来2080s我国玉米产量的变化.主要结果如下:两种温室气体排放方案下,A2方案对我国玉米产量造成的负面影响大于B2方案;气候变化对灌溉玉米造成的负面影响大于雨养玉米;气候变化造成玉米单产的变化表现为大多数玉米主产区减产,而非玉米主产区增产.

  18. Forestal measures against climate change. Review and status after the Fourth Conference of the Parties of the Climate Convention; Skogtiltak mot klimaendringer. Oversikt og status etter fjerde partskonferanse til Klimakonvensjonen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, Lars Otto

    1999-08-01

    The Kyoto Protocol of December 1997 opens up the possibility that forestal measures can be used to meet parts of the commitments of the industrialized countries to achieve a net reduction of emission of climate gases. The present report summarizes the issues involved in forestal measures that will mitigate global climate changes. The emphasis is on forestal measures in the climate negotiations and technical carbon binding potential. There is also a brief review of economic, environmental and social aspects. The next decades will be crucial to the many of the world`s forests. The forests contain a large part of the biological diversity. Above all this is true of tropical forests. But untouched areas in tempered and boreal areas are also experiencing various types of threats, including the effects of a possible global heating. It is a main conclusion that, in spite of many complex challenges, climate measures in the forests may play a constructive role both in counteracting global climate changes and in improving the management of the world`s forest resources. 89 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Imitatio Christi in the fourth gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.G. van der Merwe

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Imitatio Christi is a concept which, although not referred to explicitly in the Fourth Gospel, is clearly spelled out in relation to the agency motif occurring in the Gospel. The disciples of Jesus have been appointed as his agents to continue his mission after his departure to his Father. In giving this message through to his readers, the Fourth Evangelist refers to Jesus' calling of his disciples, [Foreign font omitted]; pictures Jesus as [Foreign font omitted]; uses [Foreign font omitted] (the particle of comparison to compare the lives of the disciples with that of Jesus; points out the tasks the disciples had to perform after Jesus' ascension and, finally, indicates how Jesus dwells in his disciples through the Paraclete.

  20. The "fourth dimension" of gene transcription.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Malley, Bert W

    2009-05-01

    The three dimensions of space provide our relationship to position on the earth, but the fourth dimension of time has an equally profound influence on our lives. Everything from light and sound to weather and biology operate on the principle of measurable temporal periodicity. Consequently, a wide variety of time clocks affect all aspects of our existence. The annual (and biannual) cycles of activity, metabolism, and mating, the monthly physiological clocks of women and men, and the 24-h diurnal rhythms of humans are prime examples. Should it be surprising to us that the fourth dimension also impinges upon gene expression and that the genome itself is regulated by the fastest running of all biological clocks? Recent evidence substantiates the existence of such a ubiquitin-dependent transcriptional clock that is based upon the activation and destruction of transcriptional coactivators.

  1. Fourth international conference on Networks & Communications

    CERN Document Server

    Meghanathan, Natarajan; Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom)

    2013-01-01

    Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom) is the proceedings from the Fourth International Conference on Networks & Communications. This book covers theory, methodology and applications of computer networks, network protocols and wireless networks, data communication technologies, and network security. The proceedings will feature peer-reviewed papers that illustrate research results, projects, surveys and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in the diverse areas of computer networks & communications.

  2. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and en...

  3. Implications from the climatic change dynamics for research and development concerning renewable energies in Germany; Implikationen aus der Dynamik des Klimawandels fuer Forschung und Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewerenz, Jana Celeste

    2009-03-15

    The climatic change is a fact. The contribution of the fourth IPCC (international panel on climate change) report is covered in the first chapter of the volume, describing the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas production during the last centuries, possible mitigation strategies, unavoidable consequences, macroeconomic costs for stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and possibilities of renewable energy resources. The second chapter is the Stern report 2006 on the existing scientific literature concerning the climatic change and its consequences, risk analyses and cost estimations for greenhouse gas reduction strategies on the one hand and costs of the possibly catastrophic consequences of the climate change on the other hand. The third chapter is the pilot study of the Federal Ministry of environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety 2007/2008. The fourth chapter is the contribution of the scientific commission of the Federal government on global environmental changes (WBGU) no 5: new stimuli for the climate policy: chances of the German double presidency. The fifth chapter covers the Meseberg topics - the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP) followed by a discussion of the described contributions.

  4. Fourth order difference methods for hyperbolic IBVP's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Bertil; Olsson, Pelle

    1994-01-01

    Fourth order difference approximations of initial-boundary value problems for hyperbolic partial differential equations are considered. We use the method of lines approach with both explicit and compact implicit difference operators in space. The explicit operator satisfies an energy estimate leading to strict stability. For the implicit operator we develop boundary conditions and give a complete proof of strong stability using the Laplace transform technique. We also present numerical experiments for the linear advection equation and Burgers' equation with discontinuities in the solution or in its derivative. The first equation is used for modeling contact discontinuities in fluid dynamics, the second one for modeling shocks and rarefaction waves. The time discretization is done with a third order Runge-Kutta TVD method. For solutions with discontinuities in the solution itself we add a filter based on second order viscosity. In case of the non-linear Burger's equation we use a flux splitting technique that results in an energy estimate for certain different approximations, in which case also an entropy condition is fulfilled. In particular we shall demonstrate that the unsplit conservative form produces a non-physical shock instead of the physically correct rarefaction wave. In the numerical experiments we compare our fourth order methods with a standard second order one and with a third order TVD-method. The results show that the fourth order methods are the only ones that give good results for all the considered test problems.

  5. Art meets mathematics in the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Lipscomb, Stephen Leon

    2014-01-01

    To see objects that live in the fourth dimension we humans would need to add a fourth dimension to our three-dimensional vision. An example of such an object that lives in the fourth dimension is a hyper-sphere or “3-sphere”. The quest to imagine the elusive 3-sphere has deep historical roots: medieval poet Dante Alighieri, in his circa 1300 AD Divine Comedy, used a 3-sphere to convey his allegorical vision of the Christian afterlife. In 1917, Albert Einstein visualized the universe, at each instant in time, as a 3-sphere. He described his representation as “…the place where the reader’s imagination boggles. Nobody can imagine this thing.” Over time, however, our understanding of the concept of dimension evolved. By 2003, a researcher had successfully rendered into human vision the structure of a 4-web (think of an every increasingly-dense spider’s web). In this text Stephen Lipscomb takes his innovative dimension theory research a step further, using the 4-web to reveal a new partial image of a...

  6. Telling time in the Fourth Gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome H. Neyrey

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available When we begin the task of telling time in the Fourth Gospel, we bring something not found in any previous study, namely, a model of time articulated by cross- ultural anthropologists (Bordieu, in Pitt-Rivers 1963:55-72, Ayoade, in Wright 1984:71-89. As much as we admire Davies’ study, she has no notes to her chapter on time nor any citations in her bibliography to indicate that she has any conversation partners, much less cultural experts, a deficit to be filled in this study. Learning to tell time entails three theoretical considerations: a definition of time, key classifications of it, and special attention to what the ancients meant by past, present and future. With these lenses we are prepared to do as thorough a study as we can on telling time in the Fourth Gospel. As we consider each classification, we will suggest a brief meaning of it from the experts on time, then present a body of Greco-Roman materials illustrative of the classification, and finally use it to gather and interpret data in John. Proving the native existence of these classifications for telling time in antiquity is essential for readers to have a background against which to compare their usage with that of the Fourth Gospel.

  7. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  8. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Rajendran; Ravi S Nanjundiah; Sulochana Gadgil; J Srinivasan

    2012-06-01

    The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST–rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST–rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

  9. Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are sy...

  10. Field Studies Show That In Situ Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for East African Agriculture Are Less Than IPCC Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelster, D.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Rufino, M.; Rosenstock, T. S.; Wanyama, G.

    2015-12-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African agricultural systems are thought to comprise a large portion of total emissions from the continent, however these estimates have been calculated using emission factors (EF) from other regions due to the lack of field studies in Africa, which results in large uncertainties for these estimates. Field measurements from western Kenya calculating emissions over a year in 59 different sites found that GHG emissions from typical smallholder farms ranged from 2.8 to 15.0 Mg CO2-C ha-1, -6.0 to 2.4 kg CH4-C ha-1 and -0.1 to 1.8 kg N2O-N ha-1, and were not affected by management intensity. The lack of a response in N2O emissions to N fertilization suggests that the EF currently used in national inventories overestimates N2O emissions from typical smallholder agriculture. Another study measuring N2O and CH4 emissions from manure deposited by grazing cattle found that the N2O EF ranged from 0.1 to 0.2%, while the CH4 EF ranged from 0.04 to 0.14 Kg CH4-C per 173 kg animal. These suggest that the current IPCC EF overestimate agricultural soil and manure GHG emissions for Kenya, and likely for much of East Africa.

  11. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  12. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 – time series from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Grassi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ map in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3 and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters

  13. 7 CFR 51.2296 - Three-fourths half kernel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Three-fourths half kernel. 51.2296 Section 51.2296 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards...-fourths half kernel. Three-fourths half kernel means a portion of a half of a kernel which has more...

  14. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  15. Geometry, relativity and the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudolf

    1977-01-01

    This is a highly readable, popular exposition of the fourth dimension and the structure of the universe. A remarkable pictorial discussion of the curved space-time we call home, it achieves even greater impact through the use of 141 excellent illustrations. This is the first sustained visual account of many important topics in relativity theory that up till now have only been treated separately.Finding a perfect analogy in the situation of the geometrical characters in Flatland, Professor Rucker continues the adventures of the two-dimensional world visited by a three-dimensional being to expl

  16. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuomisto, H. [ed.] [IVO Group, Vantaa (Finland); Purhonen, H. [ed.] [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kouhia, V. [ed.] [Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries.

  17. Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

  18. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  19. Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

  20. Climate action report. 1997 Submission of the United States of America under the United Nations framework convention on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-07-01

    Contents: Introduction and Overview; National Circumstances; Greenhouse Gas Inventory; Mitigating Climate Change; Vulnerability and Adaptation; Research and Systematic Observation; Education, Training, and Outreach; International Activities; Appendix A: Climate Plan Actions; Appendix B: IPCC Reporting Tables; and Appendix C: Bibliography.

  1. The fourth revolution how the infosphere is reshaping human reality

    CERN Document Server

    Floridi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    Who are we, and how do we relate to each other? Luciano Floridi, one of the leading figures in contemporary philosophy, argues that the explosive developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is changing the answer to these fundamental human questions. As the boundaries between life online and offline break down, and we become seamlessly connected to each other and surrounded by smart, responsive objects, we are all becoming integrated into an ". Personas we adopt in social media, for example, feed into our 'real' lives so that we begin to live, as Floridi puts in, ". Following those led by Copernicus, Darwin, and Freud, this metaphysical shift represents nothing less than a fourth revolution. " defines more and more of our daily activity - the way we shop, work, learn, care for our health, entertain ourselves, conduct our relationships; the way we interact with the worlds of law, finance, and politics; even the way we conduct war. In every department of life, ICTs have become environmenta...

  2. Fourth-generation Mars vehicle concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwood, Brent

    1994-09-01

    Conceptual designs for fourth-generation crew-carrying Mars transfer and excursion vehicles, fully integrated to state-of-the-art standards, are presented. The resulting vehicle concepts are sized for six crew members, and can support all opposition and conjunction opportunities in or after 2014. The modular, reusable transfer ship is launched to Earth orbit on six 185-ton-class boosters and assembled there robotically. Its dual nuclear-thermal rocket engines use liquid hydrogen propollant. The payload consists of a microgravity habitation system and an expendable lift-to-drag = 1.6 lander capable of aeromaneuvering to sites within +/- 20 deg of the equator. This lander can deliver either an expendable, storable-bipropellant crew-carrying ascent vehicle, or 40 tons of cargo, and it is capable of limited surface mobility to support base buildup. Multiple cargo landers sent ahead on robotic transfer vehicles deliver the supplies and equipment required for long-duration surface missions.

  3. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Minai, Ali A; Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IV

    2008-01-01

    In June of 2002, over 500 professors, students and researchers met in Boston, Massachusetts for the Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems. The attendees represented a remarkably diverse collection of fields: biology, ecology, physics, engineering, computer science, economics, psychology and sociology, The goal of the conference was to encourage cross-fertilization between the many disciplines represented and to deepen understanding of the properties common to all complex systems. This volume contains 43 papers selected from the more than 200 presented at the conference. Topics include: cellular automata, neurology, evolution, computer science, network dynamics, and urban planning. About NECSI: For over 10 years, The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in the development of complex systems science and its applications. NECSI conducts research, education, knowledge dissemination, and community development around the world for the promotion of the study of complex sys...

  4. Fourth Thematic CERN School of Computing

    CERN Multimedia

    Alberto Pace, CSC Director

    2016-01-01

    The Fourth Thematic School of Computing (tCSC2016) takes place this year in Split, Croatia, from 22 to 28 May 2016.   The theme is "Efficient and Parallel Processing of Scientific Data", looking at: The challenge of scientific data processing: commonalities, analogies and the main differences between different sciences. Size of scientific software projects. Parallelism and asynchronism: computation and I/O. The School is open to postgraduate students and research workers with a few years' experience in elementary particle physics, computing, engineering or related fields.  All applicants are welcome, including former and future participants in the main CSC summer school. Registration will close on 15 February and participation is limited to 24 students. To register, please go here. About: The Thematic Schools are part of the annual series of CERN Schools of Computing, to promote advanced learning and knowledge exchange on the subject of scientific compu...

  5. Fourth ventricle meningiomas: a rare entity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichierri, Angelo; Ruggeri, Andrea; Morselli, Carlotta; Delfini, Roberto

    2011-08-01

    Fourth ventricle meningiomas (FVMs) are rare, often misdiagnosed, lesions. To the best of our knowledge, 47 cases have been reported in the literature: we describe our series of three cases treated at our Institution, focusing on some diagnostic tips and intraoperative features of these tumours. Our three patients have a history of headache. Gait disturbances, vomiting and/or diplopia complicated the clinical picture before the referral at our Department. The operations were uneventful, and the patients fully recovered from neurological symptoms. They are free of recurrence at a median follow-up of 19 years. FVMs are rare lesions, which are difficult to differentiate preoperatively from the much more common ependymomas. A preoperative distinction would be extremely advantageous: indeed, although both tumours share similar radiological and clinical patterns, they clearly differ as to surgical difficulty and outcome. In fact, meningiomas are comparatively easier to remove, granting better clinical results.

  6. Fourth Way in Action: Translation of Research into Policy and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poon, Chew Leng

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the relationship between policy, research and practice in the Singapore education landscape in response to Hargreaves and Shirley's arguments of Fourth Way principles of educational change. Examples of recent policy developments in Singapore are used to illustrate the interaction between judicial uses of research data and…

  7. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  8. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and environmental justice issues. This article uses the analytical lens of Fourth World theory to examine how such structural and cultural forces contributed to the severely distressed conditions now found in the city of Gary, Indiana. Tracking its one-hundred-year history, from its founding as an industrial town through its post-industrial decline occurring during the city’s first African-American mayor’s five terms in office, the methodology clearly demonstrates how the social construction of race has systematically undermined every aspect of Gary’s overall quality of life. To illustrate that this city is not an anomaly but rather reflects a typical pattern of disparity and uneven development arising from racist practices, Gary is compared to other cities of similar size and also to the much larger Detroit. The article triangulates academic literature, news media archives, and an oral history provided by the mayor to show how Gary evolved from being a model industrial city to a cauldron of racial disparity. The paper concludes by arguing that continued absence of reflection on the nation’s historical racialization of place threatens not just impoverished communities of color, but also the sustainability of the entire nation.

  9. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  10. The Fourth Gospel as a textual field of meaning

    OpenAIRE

    Micallef, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Fourth Gospel is a textual field of meaning and it reinforces pressure on readers to differentiate appearance from intended meaning. No single interpretation can claim to have said the last word on the meaning of the Fourth Gospel’s use of language, which may be considered as the most striking characteristic of this Gospel. The whole network of the Johannine literary devices and vocabulary is an expression of the Fourth Gospel’s theological message and brings dissimilari...

  11. IPCC-AR4模式对影响西北太平洋热带气旋的大气动力环境场的气候特征模拟性能%Assessments on climatologic simulation of atmospheric dynamic environment of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in IPCC -AR4 models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余锦华; 赵晓彤; 陈成

    2014-01-01

    评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948-1999年7-9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7-9月低纬地区500 hPa平均高度场、850 hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500 hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850 hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。%The fidelity of atmospheric circulation over tropical regions ,especially subtropical high ,monsoon trough and vertical wind shear over the regions of tropical cyclone activity in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field with that of National Center Environmental Pre-diction(NCEP)/National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) during 1948-1999 from July to September. It is found that vast majority of 23 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state in 500 hPa height field over the domain 0°-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W and 850 hPa wind field over the region 20°S-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W-180°-0°W ,but in comparison to that of NCEP/NCAR ,most of models show a low bias in 500 hPa height

  12. MANAGING PLANET EARTH TO MAKE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT MORE SUSTAINABLE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND HONG KONG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    W.W.-S.Yim; C.D.Ollier

    2009-01-01

    School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia)Selected recent findings related to climate change in Hong Kong include: (1)The Hong Kong seafloor has yielded a ca.0.5-million year record of climate and sea-level changes.(2)Greenhouse gases produced naturally from sub-aerially exposed continental shelves and oceanic islands were a probable forcing mechanism in triggering the abrupt termination of past ice ages. (3)An analysis of annual mean temperature records has revealed that the urban heat island effect has contributed ca.75% of the warming. (4)Past volcanic eruptions are found to lower Hong Kong's temperature and to cause extremely dry and wet years. (5)No evidence can be found for an increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons based on the instrumental record since the end of the Second World War. (6)The observed rate of sea-level rise in the South China Sea is much slower than the predictions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. For the Earth's management, population growth and the depletion of non-renewable resources must be recognized as unsustainable. The human impact on the natural hydrological cycle is an important forcing mechanism in climate change. In order to delay the demise of the human race, management must include curbing population growth and much more waste recycling than at present.

  13. Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MU Lin; WU Dexing; CHEN Xue'en; J Jungclaus

    2006-01-01

    A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPIOM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the subtropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC decreases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the northern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.

  14. UK-China Dialogue on Climate Ethics:Finding Consensus Review of the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy%中英气候伦理对话:从分歧走向共识--第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议综述

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史军

    2014-01-01

    The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy, and UK⁃China Net⁃work on Climate Ethics was held on 21 and 22 September 2014 at University of Reading and on 23 September 2014 at the University of Oxford. The five groups of topics were as follow: intergenerational and intra⁃genera⁃tional Climate justice; climate poverty and consumer choice; equity and development; international institutions;new problems and new solutions. There was also extensive discussion on Chinese moral perspective on climate governance between UK and Chinese scholars.%2014年9月21日至23日,第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议暨中英气候伦理与政策研讨会在英国雷丁大学和牛津大学召开。会议围绕五组主题展开:代际气候正义与代内气候正义,气候贫困与消费者选择,平等与发展,国际法律与国际制度,新问题与新技术方案。此次会议对中英学者在应对气候变化问题上增进了解、求同存异、寻找共识起到了重要作用,进一步提升了我国学者参与国际气候问题交流与合作的水平和能力。

  15. Le changement climatique d'origine humaine. Rappel de quelques résultats générauxAnthropogenic climate change: general results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Michel

    1999-02-01

    The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports have highlighted major results, which constitute a relevant framework for the specific papers in this issue. Both facts established with large confidence level and models results are presented.

  16. Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Laepple, T; Laepple, Thomas; Jewson, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.

  17. Mandibular asymmetry and the fourth dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaban, Leonard B

    2009-03-01

    This paper represents more than 30 years of discussion and collaboration with Drs Joseph Murray and John Mulliken in an attempt to understand growth patterns over time (ie, fourth dimension) in patients with hemifacial microsomia (HFM). This is essential for the development of rational treatment protocols for children and adults with jaw asymmetry. Traditionally, HFM was thought of as a unilateral deformity, but it was recognized that 20% to 30% of patients had bilateral abnormalities. However, early descriptions of skeletal correction addressed almost exclusively lengthening of the short (affected) side of the face. Based on longitudinal clinical observations of unoperated HFM patients, we hypothesized that abnormal mandibular growth is the earliest skeletal manifestation and that restricted growth of the mandible plays a pivotal role in progressive distortion of both the ipsilateral and contralateral facial skeleton. This hypothesis explains the progressive nature of the asymmetry in patients with HFM and provides the rationale for surgical lengthening of the mandible in children to prevent end-stage deformity. During the past 30 years, we have learned that this phenomenon of progressive distortion of the adjacent and contralateral facial skeleton occurs with other asymmetric mandibular undergrowth (tumor resection, radiation therapy, or posttraumatic defects) and overgrowth (mandibular condylar hyperplasia) conditions. In this paper, I describe the progression of deformity with time in patients with mandibular asymmetry as a result of undergrowth and overgrowth. Understanding these concepts is critical for the development of rational treatment protocols for adults with end-stage asymmetry and for children to minimize secondary deformity.

  18. The Fourth World Conference on Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    The Fourth World Conference on Women held in Beijing during September 4-15, 1995, was a major success. The platform for action adopted by consensus at the conference is comprised of the mission statement, a global framework, critical areas of concern, strategic objectives and actions, and institutional and financial arrangements. The conference was an extension of other large international conferences organized under UN initiative over the past 15 years. The Beijing platform of action aims to remove all obstacles to women's active participation in all spheres of public and private life through a full and equal share in economic, social, cultural, and political decision-making. The following concerns were defined by the conference: eradicating poverty, increasing school enrollment and eliminating gender inequalities in access to education, improving access to health care and eliminating gender inequalities in access to services, eliminating violence against women, mitigating the consequences of armed conflicts against women, securing equal access of men and women to economic resources and employment, providing equal participation of men and women in power structures and decision making, enhancing national mechanisms to promote the advancement of women, protecting the rights of girls and women, eradicating stereotypes about women, participating in the management of natural resources and environmental protection, and improving the status of girls.

  19. Neural crest: The fourth germ layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Shyamala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The neural crest cells (NCCs, a transient group of cells that emerges from the dorsal aspect of the neural tube during early vertebrate development has been a fascinating group of cells because of its multipotency, long range migration through embryo and its capacity to generate a prodigious number of differentiated cell types. For these reasons, although derived from the ectoderm, the neural crest (NC has been called the fourth germ layer. The non neural ectoderm, the neural plate and the underlying mesoderm are needed for the induction and formation of NC cells. Once formed, NC cells start migrating as a wave of cells, moving away from the neuroepithelium and quickly splitting into distinct streams. These migrating NCCs home in to different regions and give rise to plethora of tissues. Umpteen number of signaling molecules are essential for formation, epithelial mesenchymal transition, delamination, migration and localization of NCC. Authors believe that a clear understanding of steps and signals involved in NC formation, migration, etc., may help in understanding the pathogenesis behind cancer metastasis and many other diseases. Hence, we have taken this review to discuss the various aspects of the NC cells.

  20. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  1. Human Resources Administration: A School-Based Perspective. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Enhanced and updated, this Fourth Edition of Richard E. Smith's highly successful text examines the growing role of the principal in planning, hiring, staff development, supervision, and other human resource functions. The Fourth Edition includes new sections on ethics, induction, and the role of the mentor teacher. This edition also introduces…

  2. Syringomyelia regression after shunting of a trapped fourth ventricle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dukagjin Morina

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a case of progressive syringomyelia following post-infectious trapped fourth ventricle (TFV, which resolved after shunting of the fourth ventricle. A 28-year-old female who had previously undergone treatment of intracerebral hemorrhage and meningitis developed a hydrocephalus with TFV. After 3 years she developed disturbance of walking and coordination. Cranial-CT revealed an enlargement of the shunted fourth ventricle as a result of shunt dysfunction. Furthermore a cervical syringomyelia developed. The patient underwent a revision of a failed fourth ventriculo- peritoneal shunt. Postoperatively, syringomyelia resolved within 6 months and the associated neurological deficits improved significantly. An insufficiency of cerebrospinal fluid draining among patients with TFV can be associated with communicating syringomyelia. An early detection and treatment seems important on resolving syringomyelia and avoiding permanent neurological deficits. Ventriculo-peritoneal shunt in trapped fourth ventricles can resolve a secondary syringomyelia.

  3. An isolated fourth ventricle in neurosarcoidosis: MRI findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesselmann, Volker; Terstegge, Klaus; Schulte, Oliver; Krug, Barbara; Lackner, Klaus [Department of Radiology, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany); Wedekind, Christoph [Department of Neurosurgery, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany); Voges, Juergen [Department of Stereotaxy und Functional Neurosurgery, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany)

    2002-07-01

    We report on an isolated enlargement of the fourth ventricle in a patient with neurosarcoidosis which developed 3 years after the insertion of a ventriculo-atrial shunt. Repeated MRI images were obtained in a patient with known neurosarcoidosis between 1995 and 2000. Imaging findings were correlated to the medical course of the patient, who developed a hydrocephalus and a trapped fourth ventricle consecutively. The isolation was presumably due to granulomatous inflammation of the ependyma surrounding the fourth ventricular outlets. The isolated fourth ventricle was responsible for a deterioration of neurological status. Neurosarcoidosis is a severe complication in sarcoidosis patients. An isolated enlargement of the fourth ventricle is a rare complication in clinically deteriorated patients with neurosarcoidosis and ventricular drainage, which may require neurosurgical treatment. (orig.)

  4. Proceedings: Fourth Workshop on Mining Scientific Datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamath, C

    2001-07-24

    Commercial applications of data mining in areas such as e-commerce, market-basket analysis, text-mining, and web-mining have taken on a central focus in the JCDD community. However, there is a significant amount of innovative data mining work taking place in the context of scientific and engineering applications that is not well represented in the mainstream KDD conferences. For example, scientific data mining techniques are being developed and applied to diverse fields such as remote sensing, physics, chemistry, biology, astronomy, structural mechanics, computational fluid dynamics etc. In these areas, data mining frequently complements and enhances existing analysis methods based on statistics, exploratory data analysis, and domain-specific approaches. On the surface, it may appear that data from one scientific field, say genomics, is very different from another field, such as physics. However, despite their diversity, there is much that is common across the mining of scientific and engineering data. For example, techniques used to identify objects in images are very similar, regardless of whether the images came from a remote sensing application, a physics experiment, an astronomy observation, or a medical study. Further, with data mining being applied to new types of data, such as mesh data from scientific simulations, there is the opportunity to apply and extend data mining to new scientific domains. This one-day workshop brings together data miners analyzing science data and scientists from diverse fields to share their experiences, learn how techniques developed in one field can be applied in another, and better understand some of the newer techniques being developed in the KDD community. This is the fourth workshop on the topic of Mining Scientific Data sets; for information on earlier workshops, see http://www.ahpcrc.org/conferences/. This workshop continues the tradition of addressing challenging problems in a field where the diversity of applications is

  5. NTFP and REDD at the Fourth World Conservation Congress: What is In and What is Not

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peña Pablo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available While the Fourth World Conservation Congress (WCC was effective in bringing together different participants to discuss climate change, the discussion of potential mitigation mechanisms was dominated by the Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD initiative, to the exclusion of other possibilities, including Non-timber Forest Products (NTFP-there was a notable lack of venues for discussing the relevance of NTFP projects for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and poverty alleviation. This paper contrasts the treatment of NTFP and REDD at the WCC and discusses how the exclusion of NTFP from these discussions will probably affect its inclusion in the conservation agenda and the future design and funding of conservation projects. The paper also shares some ideas on unexplored complementarities between NTFP and REDD for climate change mitigation, showing that an opportunity was lost at the Fourth WCC for promoting NTFP as an additional market-based approach to conservation.

  6. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  7. Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

  8. EIA publication manual: Fourth edition. [Energy information manuals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neef, C.A.

    1988-01-01

    This is the fourth edition of the Publications Manual. It was written to help the staff of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) who are involved in the production process to create and format uniform publications that not only provide information, but readily identify the agency. The manual reflects the substantial changes that have taken place to streamline methods of producing EIA publications over the past few years. Whereas the first edition, in 1979, was written for writers and typists which struggled with producing reports on manual typewriters, this report now reflects the increased use of automation in preparing most EIA publications. EIA has a fully automated photocomposition publishing system. Many of the style features discussed in this manual are automatically produced using EPIC/ICEF2. The need for format sheets and illustrations produced by graphic artists has been significantly reduced. However, the basic style has changed very little. EIA style continues to be based on the Government Printing Office Style Manual with some deviations tailored specifically for EIA.

  9. Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatrchyan, S.; Khachatryan, V.; Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Aguilo, E.; Bergauer, T.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Fabjan, C.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Hammer, J.; Hörmann, N.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; Kiesenhofer, W.; Knünz, V.; Krammer, M.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Mikulec, I.; Pernicka, M.; Rahbaran, B.; Rohringer, C.; Rohringer, H.; Schöfbeck, R.; Strauss, J.; Taurok, A.; Waltenberger, W.; Walzel, G.; Widl, E.; Wulz, C.-E.; Mossolov, V.; Shumeiko, N.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; Bansal, M.; Bansal, S.; Cornelis, T.; De Wolf, E. A.; Janssen, X.; Luyckx, S.; Mucibello, L.; Ochesanu, S.; Roland, B.; Rougny, R.; Selvaggi, M.; Staykova, Z.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Van Spilbeeck, A.; Blekman, F.; Blyweert, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Maes, M.; Olbrechts, A.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Villella, I.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Dero, V.; Gay, A. P. R.; Hreus, T.; Léonard, A.; Marage, P. E.; Mohammadi, A.; Reis, T.; Thomas, L.; Vander Marcken, G.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Wang, J.; Adler, V.; Beernaert, K.; Cimmino, A.; Costantini, S.; Garcia, G.; Grunewald, M.; Klein, B.; Lellouch, J.; Marinov, A.; Mccartin, J.; Ocampo Rios, A. A.; Ryckbosch, D.; Strobbe, N.; Thyssen, F.; Tytgat, M.; Verwilligen, P.; Walsh, S.; Yazgan, E.; Zaganidis, N.; Basegmez, S.; Bruno, G.; Castello, R.; Ceard, L.; Delaere, C.; du Pree, T.; Favart, D.; Forthomme, L.; Giammanco, A.; Hollar, J.; Lemaitre, V.; Liao, J.; Militaru, O.; Nuttens, C.; Pagano, D.; Pin, A.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Schul, N.; Vizan Garcia, J. M.; Beliy, N.; Caebergs, T.; Daubie, E.; Hammad, G. H.; Alves, G. A.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; Martins, T.; Pol, M. E.; Souza, M. H. G.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Carvalho, W.; Custódio, A.; Da Costa, E. M.; De Oliveira Martins, C.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Matos Figueiredo, D.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Oguri, V.; Prado Da Silva, W. L.; Santoro, A.; Soares Jorge, L.; Sznajder, A.; Anjos, T. S.; Bernardes, C. A.; Dias, F. A.; Tomei, T. R. Fernandez Perez; Gregores, E. M.; Lagana, C.; Marinho, F.; Mercadante, P. G.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Genchev, V.; Iaydjiev, P.; Piperov, S.; Rodozov, M.; Stoykova, S.; Sultanov, G.; Tcholakov, V.; Trayanov, R.; Vutova, M.; Dimitrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Kozhuharov, V.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Jiang, C. H.; Liang, D.; Liang, S.; Meng, X.; Tao, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, X.; Wang, Z.; Xiao, H.; Xu, M.; Zang, J.; Zhang, Z.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Ban, Y.; Guo, S.; Guo, Y.; Li, W.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Teng, H.; Wang, D.; Zhang, L.; Zhu, B.; Zou, W.; Avila, C.; Gomez, J. P.; Gomez Moreno, B.; Osorio Oliveros, A. F.; Sanabria, J. C.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Plestina, R.; Polic, D.; Puljak, I.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Duric, S.; Kadija, K.; Luetic, J.; Morovic, S.; Attikis, A.; Galanti, M.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Finger, M.; Finger, M., Jr.; Assran, Y.; Elgammal, S.; Ellithi Kamel, A.; Khalil, S.; Mahmoud, M. A.; Radi, A.; Kadastik, M.; Müntel, M.; Raidal, M.; Rebane, L.; Tiko, A.; Eerola, P.; Fedi, G.; Voutilainen, M.; Härkönen, J.; Heikkinen, A.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Kortelainen, M. J.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Mäenpää, T.; Peltola, T.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Tuovinen, E.; Ungaro, D.; Wendland, L.; Banzuzi, K.; Karjalainen, A.; Korpela, A.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Choudhury, S.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Fabbro, B.; Faure, J. L.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Locci, E.; Malcles, J.; Millischer, L.; Nayak, A.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Shreyber, I.; Titov, M.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Benhabib, L.; Bianchini, L.; Bluj, M.; Broutin, C.; Busson, P.; Charlot, C.; Daci, N.; Dahms, T.; Dobrzynski, L.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Haguenauer, M.; Miné, P.; Mironov, C.; Naranjo, I. N.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Paganini, P.; Sabes, D.; Salerno, R.; Sirois, Y.; Veelken, C.; Zabi, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Bloch, D.; Bodin, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Cardaci, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Drouhin, F.; Ferro, C.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Juillot, P.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Van Hove, P.; Fassi, F.; Mercier, D.; Beauceron, S.; Beaupere, N.; Bondu, O.; Boudoul, G.; Chasserat, J.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fay, J.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Ille, B.; Kurca, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Perries, S.; Sordini, V.; Tschudi, Y.; Verdier, P.; Viret, S.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Anagnostou, G.; Beranek, S.; Edelhoff, M.; Feld, L.; Heracleous, N.; Hindrichs, O.; Jussen, R.

    2012-12-01

    Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5fb-1 recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up and down type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about ±20GeV. These results significantly reduce the allowed parameter space for a fourth generation of fermions.

  10. The superior transvelar approach to the fourth ventricle and brainstem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezer, Haim; Banerjee, Anirban Deep; Bollam, Papireddy; Guthikonda, Bharat; Nanda, Anil

    2012-06-01

    Objective The superior transvelar approach is used to access pathologies located in the fourth ventricle and brainstem. The surgical path is below the venous structures, through the superior medullary velum. Following splitting the tentorial edge, near the tentorial apex, the superior medullary velum is split in the cerebello-mesencephalic fissure. Using the supracerebellar infratentorial, transtentorial or parietal interhemispheric routes, the superior medullary velum is approached. Splitting this velum provides a detailed view of the fourth ventricle and its floor. Materials and Methods A total of 10 formalin-fixed specimens were dissected in a stepwise manner to simulate the superior transvelar approach to the fourth ventricle. The exposure gained the distance from the craniotomy site and the ease of access was assessed for each of the routes. We also present an illustrative case, operated by the senior author (AN). Results The superior transvelar approach provides access to the entire length of the fourth ventricle floor, from the aqueduct to the obex, when using the parietal interhemispheric route. In addition, this approach provides access to the entire width of the floor of the fourth ventricle; however, this requires retracting the superior cerebellar peduncle. Using the supracerebellar infratentorial route gives a limited exposure of the superior part of the fourth ventricle. The occipital interhemispheric route is a compromise between these two. Conclusion The superior transvelar approach to the fourth ventricle provides a route for approaching the fourth ventricle from above. This approach does not require opening the posterior fossa in the traditional way, and provides a reasonable alternative for accessing the superior fourth ventricle.

  11. Scientific climate change information by collaborative venture and digital portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubelaar-Versluis, W.

    2010-09-01

    Klimaatportaal is the digital entry of Dutch ‘climate' knowledge centres, which are collaborated in the Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC). This collaborative venture was established in 2003 by the Dutch climate research community to improve the quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the communication of Dutch climate research. By now, eight Dutch knowledge centres are participating and still more want to join. The Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) supports the PCCC and the project is implemented in collaboration with the BSIK ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning' programme. The website provides actual and background climate change information for a wide audience on the national scale from policy makers, media to general public. By supplying integral climate information, such as observations of climate change, causes and consequences of climate system, adaptation, mitigation and energy issues, a wide spectrum of target groups will be served. The information is offered in different forms, because of the needs of different target groups. Klimaatportaal contains therefore news on climate issues, frequently asked questions and popular science reports, like the annually brochure De Staat van het Klimaat (‘The State of the Climate'). Recently, also a portal for students is added, where they can find information for their assignments. Beside the website, PCCC is organising activities as symposia and workshops and is supplying information on international issues, for example the content of the Kyoto protocol and the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007). Finally, informing the public through contacts with the media is also an important part of the PCCC. The presentation will address the strengths and weaknesses of this approach which may serve as an example for combining knowledge in outreach activities in other countries.

  12. Reforming Systems: Realizing the Fourth Way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Alma

    2011-01-01

    This article outlines how the work of Andy Hargreaves has significantly and substantially informed our understanding of educational change, particularly systemwide change, by drawing upon his most recent research and writing to consider what is known about the process of successful, large-scale reform. It focuses on some of the "fallacies of…

  13. Fourth-order partial differential equations for effective image denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongjai Kim

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns mathematical image denoising methods incorporating fourth-order partial differential equations (PDEs. We introduce and analyze piecewise planarity conditions (PPCs with which unconstrained fourth-order variational models in continuum converge to a piecewise planar image. It has been observed that fourth-order variational models holding PPCs can restore better images than models without PPCs and second-order models. Numerical schemes are presented in detail and various examples in image denoising are provided to verify the claim.

  14. Yangzhou’s Famous Twenty-fourth Bridge

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1992-01-01

    “LOOMING green moun-tains and runningstreams;grass does notwither and fall,though the autumnhas come to an end in the south.The bright moon arises overTwenty-fourth Bridge.Where doyou teach pure-jade Yangzhouwomen to play music on bambooflutes?”This poem by Du Mu(803-c.852),a famous poet of thelate Tang Dynasty,is well remem-bered today It made Yangzhou’sTwenty-fourth Bridge Known to la-ter generations.Of many ancientpoems about Twenty-fourth Bridge

  15. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  16. Development of a Future Representative Concentration Pathway for Use in the IPCC 5th Assessment Earth System Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-12-29

    The representative concentration pathway to be delivered is a scenario of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively important atmospheric species, along with land-use changes, derived from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The particular representative concentration pathway (RCP) that the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) has been responsible for is a not-to-exceed pathway that stabilizes at a radiative forcing of 4.5Wm-2 in the year 2100.

  17. The endoscopic trans-fourth ventricle aqueductoplasty and stent placement for the treatment of trapped fourth ventricle: Long-term results in a series of 18 consecutive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquale Gallo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Different surgical approaches have been described in the past to treat a trapped fourth ventricle (TFV but, unfortunately, these techniques showed a high rate of dysfunction and complications. During the last 10 years the development of neuroendoscopy has dramatically changed the outcome of these patients. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective evaluation of the safety, effectiveness, and long-term outcome of endoscopic aqueductoplasty and stent placement, performed in 18 consecutive patients with symptomatic TFV through a trans-fourth ventricle approach between 1994 and 2010. Thirteen patients underwent endoscopic aqueductoplasty and stent placement and 5 patients underwent aqueductoplasty alone using a tailored suboccipital approach through the foramen of Magendie in prone or sitting position. Results: The mean age of the patients at the time of surgery was 15.2 years. All patients but 3 had a supratentorial ventriculoperitoneal shunt. Fifteen patients presented with slit supratentorial ventricles. At a mean followup of 90.8 months all patients experienced a stable clinical improvement. Only two complications were observed: A transient diplopia due to dysconjugate eye movements in one patient and a transient trochlear palsy in another one. Conclusions: Our experience and the literature review suggest that endoscopic trans-fourth ventricle aqueductoplasty and stent placement is a minimally invasive, safe, and effective technique for the treatment of TFV and should be strongly recommended, especially in patients with supratentorial slit ventricles.

  18. New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Lutz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3. We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making

  19. Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

    2008-12-01

    peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

  20. Text comprehension in Czech fourth-grade children with dyslexia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Špačková Klára

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Czech Republic, the concept of dyslexia is used as a global term for various developmental deficiencies relating to reading skills. The criteria used for dyslexia are not clear and intervention is solely focused on word reading training. Not much is known about the pattern and level of reading comprehension abilities among Czech readers. The study examines reading comprehension and its component skills (decoding and listening comprehension abilities in 32 Czech fourth-grade children with a formal diagnosis of dyslexia and their classmates (N=126. In decoding tests, the children with dyslexia surprisingly lagged behind most significantly in a task concerning speed and accuracy in context reading. Contrary to expectations, the children with dyslexia also showed inferiority in a listening comprehension task. In reading comprehension measures, in comparison to the typically developing readers, the children with dyslexia achieved the best results in a oral reading comprehension task. The results are discussed with respect to Czech counselling and educational practice and the need for changes in the current support system and terminology is stressed.

  1. Effect of Climate Change on Hydrologic Ecotones Over the Pacific Northwest River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wherry, S.; Gonzalez-Baird, J.; Moradkhani, H.

    2009-12-01

    Current modeling efforts continue to indicate that the effects of climate change will be both global and local in scale, and that ecohydrologic factors including altered precipitation events, reduced system yields due to streamflow changes, increased flooding and changes to current floodplain characteristics, and changes in vegetation will be affected. Therefore, using technology such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, future general circulation model (GCM) data, and advanced floodplain analyses to predict the changes to ecohydrologic factors is critical for understanding the effects of climate change on the regional scale watershed. This study considers the effects of three different GCM climate change emissions scenarios (high, middle of the road and low) as proposed by the University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group using daily, downscaled Fourth IPCC Assessment data over the Pacific Northwest. Our study region is the Lower Tualatin watershed in Tualatin, Oregon over the historical period of 1960-1999 and future periods of 2010-2049 and 2050-2089. Using the LiDAR data, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software, Sacramento model, flood frequency analysis and HEC-RAS, we were able to delineate the basin and extract the vegetative features, calculate the 50-year return interval flow within the basin and predict the 50-year floodplain for 2049 and 2089. A specialized geo-processing algorithm was developed to delineate hydrologic “ecotones”, a floodplain-connected area used in evaluating the condition of riparian areas and streams. A complete current and future conditions analysis was performed for the vegetation within the ecotones in order to: 1) provide an existing inventory of vegetation within the watershed and 2) to predict the affect that climate change may have on vegetation within the watershed.

  2. POSlTlVE SOLUTl0NS 0F A FOURTH 0RDER BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RenLishun

    2003-01-01

    The existence of positive solutions of the nonlinear fourth order problem u(4)(x)=λα(x)f(u(x)),u(0)=u′(0)=u′(1)=um(1)=0 is studied,where a:[0,1]→R may change sign,f(0)>0,λ>0 is sufficiently small.Our approach is based on the Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem.

  3. Development of neurogenic stress cardiomyopathy after fourth ventricle tumor surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Doroshenko

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a clinical case of the development of neurogenic stress cardiomyopathy that had the characteristics of Takotsubo cardiomyopathyin a young female patient in the early periods after fourth ventricle tumor surgery.

  4. Development of neurogenic stress cardiomyopathy after fourth ventricle tumor surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Doroshenko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes a clinical case of the development of neurogenic stress cardiomyopathy that had the characteristics of Takotsubo cardiomyopathyin a young female patient in the early periods after fourth ventricle tumor surgery.

  5. The Radial Velocity Experiment (RAVE): Fourth Data Release

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kordopatis, G.; Gilmore, G.; Steinmetz, M.; Boeche, C.; Seabroke, G. M.; Siebert, A.; Zwitter, T.; Binney, J.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Williams, M. E. K.; Piffl, T.; Enke, H.; Roeser, S.; Bijaoui, A.; Wyse, R. F. G.; Freeman, K.; Munari, U.; Carrillo, I.; Anguiano, B.; Burton, D.; Campbell, R.; Cass, C. J. P.; Fiegert, K.; Hartley, M.; Parker, Q. A.; Reid, W.; Ritter, A.; Russell, K. S.; Stupar, M.; Watson, F. G.; Bienaymé, O.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Gerhard, O.; Gibson, B. K.; Grebel, E. K.; Helmi, A.; Navarro, J. F.; Conrad, C.; Famaey, B.; Faure, C.; Just, A.; Kos, J.; Matijevič, G.; McMillan, P. J.; Minchev, I.; Scholz, R.; Sharma, S.; Siviero, A.; de Boer, E. Wylie; Žerjal, M.

    2013-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances, and distances determined for 425,561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). The stellar atm

  6. Solar Energy Technologies Program Newsletter - Fourth Quarter 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2009-12-31

    The Fourth Quarter 2009 edition of the Solar Energy Technologies Program newsletter summarizes the activities for the past three months, funding opportunities, highlights from the national labs, and upcoming events.

  7. The radial velocity experiment (RAVE) : Fourth data release

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kordopatis, G.; Gilmore, G.; Steinmetz, M.; Boeche, C.; Seabroke, G. M.; Siebert, A.; Zwitter, T.; Binney, J.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Williams, M. E. K.; Piffl, T.; Enke, H.; Roeser, S.; Bijaoui, A.; Wyse, R. F. G.; Freeman, K.; Munari, U.; Carrillo, I.; Anguiano, B.; Burton, D.; Campbell, R.; Cass, C. J. P.; Fiegert, K.; Hartley, M.; Parker, Q. A.; Reid, W.; Ritter, A.; Russell, K. S.; Stupar, M.; Watson, F. G.; Bienayme, O.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Gerhard, O.; Gibson, B. K.; Grebel, E. K.; Helmi, A.; Navarro, J. F.; Conrad, C.; Famaey, B.; Faure, C.; Just, A.; Kos, J.; Matijevic, G.; McMillan, P. J.; Minchev, I.; Scholz, R.; Sharma, S.; Siviero, A.; de Boer, E. Wylie; Zerjal, M.

    2013-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances, and distances determined for 425,561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). The stellar atm

  8. Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

    CERN Document Server

    Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aguilo, Ernest; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hammer, Josef; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Pernicka, Manfred; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Walzel, Gerhard; Widl, Edmund; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Selvaggi, Michele; Staykova, Zlatka; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Marcken, Gil; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Verwilligen, Piet; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Schul, Nicolas; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Custódio, Analu; Da Costa, Eliza Melo; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Oguri, Vitor; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Zang, Jingjing; Zhang, Zhen; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Shuang; Guo, Yifei; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Teng, Haiyun; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zhu, Bo; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Osorio Oliveros, Andres Felipe; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Morovic, Srecko; Attikis, Alexandros; Galanti, Mario; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Khalil, Shaaban; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkinen, Mika Aatos; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Ungaro, Donatella; Wendland, Lauri; Banzuzi, Kukka; Karjalainen, Ahti; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath

    2012-01-01

    Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up- and down-type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant CKM matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. This result significantly reduces the allowed parameter space for a fourt...

  9. Exploring vegetation in the fourth dimension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Fraser J G

    2011-01-01

    Much ecological research focuses on changes in vegetation on spatial scales from stands to landscapes; however, capturing data on vegetation change over relevant timescales remains a challenge. Pollen analysis offers unrivalled access to data with global coverage over long timescales. Robust techniques have now been developed that enable pollen data to be converted into vegetation data in terms of individual taxa, plant communities or biomes, with the possibility of deriving from those data a range of plant attributes and ecological indicators. In this review, I discuss how coupling pollen with macrofossil, charcoal and genetic data opens up the extensive pollen databases to investigation of the drivers of vegetation change over time and also provides extensive data sets for testing hypotheses with wide ecological relevance.

  10. The Isle of The Dead Benchmark, the Sydney, Fort Denison Tide Gauge and the Ipcc Ar5 Chapter 13 Sea Levels Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parker Albert

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper revisits the Isle of the Dead benchmark and the Sydney, Fort Denison tide gauge to confirm that long term, high quality tide gauges are acceleration free, consistently to the analysis of key sites suggesting the sea levels are not sharply raising following the carbon dioxide emissions. The paper also discusses the flaws of the IPCC AR5 Chapter13 Sea levels. The time history of the relative rate of rise computed by linear fitting of the data locally collected by tide gauges is the best parameter to assess the effect of global warming providing length and quality requirements are satisfied. There is no reason to search for less reliable alternative methods because the climate models predicted different trends. The Global Positioning System (GPS inferred vertical tide gauge velocity suffers of significant inaccuracies. Larger inaccuracies are provided by the satellite altimetry Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL that is a computation and not a measurement.

  11. Tropical cyclones and climate change; Les cyclones tropicaux et le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, J.C. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France); Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique (CNRM), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  12. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, G.A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Covey, C.; Taylor, K.E. [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA (United States); Delworth, T.; Stouffer, R.J. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ (United States); Latif, M. [Leibniz-Institut fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); McAvaney, B. [Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne (Australia); Mitchell, J.F.B. [Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2007-09-15

    A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state

  13. Effects of Climate Change on Urban Rainwater Harvesting in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwong Fai A. Lo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to water-related issues due to rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure and changes in rainfall patterns. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on rainwater harvesting systems (RWH in the tropical urban city, Colombo, Sri Lanka. The future climate change projections are downscaled from global circulation models to the urban catchment scale using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG, described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, coupled with Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3 model results. Historical rainfall data from 1981–2010 is used to simulate long-term future rainfall data from 2011–2099. The percentage change of the rainfall is calculated. The rainfall patterns are analyzed based on the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Water requirements are calculated based on the selected scenario types. Rainfall and water demand data are incorporated into a water balance model. Climate change impacts for the selected RWH scenarios are calculated based on the water security analysis for each scenario. Analysis of the future rainfall data of Colombo reveals that several extreme weather events with very heavy rainfall may occur in the future. However, the frequency of these big events may not occur too often. Most of the selected global circulation models (GCMs in this study predict that there will be more rainfall towards the end of this century (2080-2099. Residential RWH systems will be more affected than non-residential systems. RWH systems in Colombo should include potential future climate changes in their future design and planning and be prepared for excess runoff and additional measures against potential overflow and urban floods.

  14. Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on State Maritime Strategy%全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李倩; 张韧; 金生龙; 徐海斌

    2011-01-01

    Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the paper generalizes the ocean responses to the global climate change, and then the influence mechanism of climate change on state maritime strategy is studied and expounded. The analysis shows that the climate change influences state maritime strategy in two steps. First, the climate change causes natural responses through physical mechanism, and then the environmental changes cause several social responses through social mechanism.%基于IPCC第四次评估报告中海洋对气候变化的响应,探讨了全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响机制。分析表明,气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响体现在两个阶段,即气候变化通过物理机制引起自然生态系统响应阶段和自然环境演变通过社会机制引起社会响应阶段。

  15. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  16. Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, D.

    2008-12-01

    The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

  17. Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guemas, Virginie [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France); CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR 1572, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Salas-Melia, David [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France)

    2008-06-15

    Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback. (orig.)

  18. Exploring a fourth dimension: spirituality as a resource for the couple therapist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D A; Worthen, D

    1997-01-01

    This article explores ways in which the therapist's own spirituality can serve as a resource in couple therapy. Spirituality is defined as subjective engagement with a fourth, transcendent dimension of human experience. This engagement enhances human life and evokes corresponding behavior. Spiritually based therapy may be influenced by three assumptions: that God or a Divine Being exists, that human-kind yearns innately for connection with this Being, and that this Being is interested in humans and acts upon and within their relationships to promote beneficial change. In therapy these assumptions affect how the therapist listens and responds throughout sessions. The authors incorporate a case example illustrating the application of this fourth dimension in couple therapy.

  19. The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but mu

  20. Climate changes Spatial Planning Introduction to the Dutch national research programme

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veraart, J.A.; Brinkman, S.; Klostermann, J.E.M.; Kabat, P.

    2007-01-01

    Dealing with climate change and climate variability is one of the largest challenges for the coming years, both on a national and global scale. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents increasing evidence of impacts of climate change and suggests that most of the warming observe

  1. Dark Coulomb binding of heavy neutrinos of fourth family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belotsky, K. M.; Esipova, E. A.; Khlopov, M. Yu.; Laletin, M. N.

    2015-11-01

    Direct dark matter searches put severe constraints on the weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). These constraints cause serious troubles for the model of stable neutrino of fourth generation with mass around 50GeV. Though the calculations of primordial abundance of these particles make them in the charge symmetric case a sparse subdominant component of the modern dark matter, their presence in the universe would exceed the current upper limits by several orders of the magnitude. However, if quarks and leptons of fourth generation possess their own Coulomb-like y-interaction, recombination of pairs of heavy neutrinos and antineutrinos and their annihilation in the “neutrinium” atoms can play important role in their cosmological evolution, reducing their modern abundance far below the experimental upper limits. The model of stable fourth generation assumes that the dominant part of dark matter is explained by excessive Ū antiquarks, forming (ŪŪŪ)-- charged clusters, bound with primordial helium in nuclear-interacting O-helium (OHe) dark atoms. The y charge conservation implies generation of the same excess of fourth generation neutrinos, potentially dangerous WIMP component of this scenario. We show that due to y-interaction recombination of fourth neutrinos with OHe hides these WIMPs from direct WIMP searches, leaving the negligible fraction of free neutrinos, what makes their existence compatible with the experimental constraints.

  2. Internet usage of fourth-grader primary school pupils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kristof Nagy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The development of information and communication technologies has resulted in revolutionary changes, which seem to continue in economy, society and many areas of life. The most important resource of the new social structure emerging as a result of technologies is information, thus the development of human capacity related to the use of information is extremely important. It may not be easy for parents and teachers to face the fact that the majority of their children/pupils know more about cyberspace than themselves. But are primary school pupils really better versed? Does digital literacy indeed automatically evolve? Does the use of the internet by all means improve children’s academic performance? In our current study we are researching how primary school pupils in the easternmost part of Hungary use the internet, and what effects it has on their studies. We would also like to emphasize the role of teachers working at the lower grades of the primary school in the formation of pupils’ digital literacy. In 2013 190 fourth-grader primary school pupils of eight schools filled in our questionnaire. Based on the data negative correlation was found between the time spent on web browsing and the academic average. Analysis of variance also revealed that those pupils have a higher academic average whose parents regularly check the purpose of their children’s internet usage. Our research results showed that the pupils who use the internet and the library equally to search for new information have a higher academic average compared to those pupils who only make use of either the traditional or the online option only. The most important result of the research is that in the case of adequate parental or professional (teacher control internet may have fruitful effects on pupils’ studies, but in the lack of such control the opposite is more likely.

  3. Temporal stability of the Dutch version of the Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV-NL)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouman, Z.; Hendriks, M.P.H.; Aldenkamp, A.P.; Kessels, R.P.C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV) is one of the most widely used memory batteries. We examined the test–retest reliability, practice effects, and standardized regression-based (SRB) change norms for the Dutch version of the WMS-IV (WMS-IV-NL) after both short and long re

  4. Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

  5. Two New Fourth-Order Three-Stage Symplectic Integrators

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Rong; WU Xin

    2011-01-01

    Two new fourth-order three-stage symplectic integrators are specifically designed for a family of Hamiltonian systems,such as the harmonic oscillator,mathematical pendulum and lattice ψ4 model.When the nonintegrable lattice ψ4 system is taken as a test model,numerical comparisons show that the new methods have a great advantage over the second-order Verlet symplectic integrators in the accuracy of energy,become explicitly better than the usual non-gradient fourth-order seven-stage symplectic integrator of Forest and Ruth,and are almost equivalent to a fourth-order seven-stage force gradient symplectic integrator of Chin.As the most important advantage,the new integrators are convenient for solving the variational equations of many Hamiltonian systems so as to save a great deal of the computational cost when scanning a lot of orbits for chaos.

  6. Results of the fourth Hanna field test

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covell, J. R.; Wojdac, L. F.; Barbour, F. A.; Gardner, G. W.; Glass, R.; Hommert, P. J.

    1980-01-01

    The second phase (Hanna IVB) of a coal gasification experiment near Hanna, Wyoming, was completed in September 1979. The experiment attempted to link and gasify coal between process wells spaced 34.3 meters apart. Intermediate wells were positioned between the process wells so that the link could be relayed over shorter distances. Reverse combustion linking was attempted over a 22.9-meter and a 11.4-meter distance of the total well spacing. Thermal activity was generally noted in the upper 3 meters of the coal seam during the link. Two attempts to gasify over the 34.3-meter distance resulted in the propagation of the burn front at the coal overburden interface. Post-burn evaluation indicates fractures as major influencing factors of the combustion process. The Hanna IVB field test provided much insight into influence that geologic features have on in situ coal combustion. The influence of these faults, permeable zones, and cleats, on the air flow patterns can drastically change the overall results of a gasification experiment and should be studied further. The overall results of Hanna IVB were discouraging because of the rapid decline in the heating values for the production gas and the amount of coal gasified. With more complete geologic characerization prior to experimentation and proper well completions, it is believed that most of the subsurface operational problems encountered during Hanna IV could have been avoided.

  7. Bergman kernel function on Hua construction of the fourth type

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces the Hua construction and presents the holomorphic automorphism group of the Hua construction of the fourth type. Utilizing the Bergman kernel function, under the condition of holomorphic automorphism and the standard complete orthonormal system of the semi-Reinhardt domain, the infinite series form of the Bergman kernel function is derived. By applying the properties of polynomial and Γ functions, various identification relations of the aforementioned form are developed and the explicit formula of the Bergman kernel function for the Hua construction of the fourth type is obtained, which suggest that many of the previously-reported results are only the special cases of our findings.

  8. Towards Reviving Electroweak Baryogenesis with a Fourth Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Shu Hou

    2013-01-01

    universe. However, it does not work within the standard model due to two reasons: (1 the strength of CP violation from the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism with three generations is too small; (2 the electroweak phase transition is not first order for the experimentally allowed Higgs boson mass. We discuss possibilities to solve these problems by introducing a fourth generation of fermions and how electroweak baryogenesis might be revived. We also discuss briefly the recent observation of a Higgs-like boson with mass around 125 GeV, which puts the fourth generation in a difficult situation, and the possible way out.

  9. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  10. Fourth order phase-field model for local max-ent approximants applied to crack propagation

    OpenAIRE

    Amiri, Fatemeh; Millán, Daniel; Arroyo Balaguer, Marino; Silani, Mohammad; Rabczuk, Timon

    2016-01-01

    We apply a fourth order phase-field model for fracture based on local maximum entropy (LME) approximants. The higher order continuity of the meshfree LME approximants allows to directly solve the fourth order phase-field equations without splitting the fourth order differential equation into two second order differential equations. We will first show that the crack surface can be captured more accurately in the fourth order model. Furthermore, less nodes are needed for the fourth order model ...

  11. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  12. Solution to the ghost problem in fourth order derivative theories

    CERN Document Server

    Mannheim, P D

    2006-01-01

    We present a solution to the ghost problem in fourth order derivative theories. In particular we study the Pais-Uhlenbeck fourth order oscillator model, a model which serves as a prototype for theories which are based on second plus fourth order derivative actions. Via a Dirac constraint method quantization we construct the appropriate quantum-mechanical Hamiltonian and Hilbert space for the system. We find that while the second-quantized Fock space of the general Pais-Uhlenbeck model does indeed contain the negative norm energy eigenstates which are characteristic of higher derivative theories, in the limit in which we switch off the second order action, such ghost states are found to move off shell, with the spectrum of asymptotic in and out S-matrix states of the pure fourth order theory which results being found to be completely devoid of states with either negative energy or negative norm. We provide additional insight into the structure of the Pais-Uhlenbeck theory by quantizing it via path integration ...

  13. TRICARE Fourth Generation Study Group - Exploring the Way Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-26

    JAN 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE TRICARE Fourth Generation Study Group - Exploring the...1ncludes all AD, AOFMIGRIGRFM, and unclef 65 RETIRETFMIOTH, exclucbng 65+ Albers Equal Area Prqect10n, 2011 2011 MHS Conference Five Models  TRICARE

  14. The Weak Field Limit of Fourth Order Gravity

    OpenAIRE

    Capozziello, Salvatore; Stabile, Arturo

    2010-01-01

    We discuss Newtonian and the post-Newtonian limits of Fourth Order Gravity Theories pointing out, in details, their resemblances and differences with respect to General Relativity. Particular emphasis is placed on the exact solutions and methods used to obtain them.

  15. Fourth-order acoustic torque in intense sound fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T. G.; Kanber, H.; Olli, E. E.

    1978-01-01

    The observation of a fourth-order acoustic torque in intense sound fields is reported. The torque was determined by measuring the acoustically induced angular deflection of a polished cylinder suspended by a torsion fiber. This torque was measured in a sound field of amplitude greater than that in which first-order acoustic torque has been observed.

  16. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  17. An Examination of Fourth Graders' Aesthetic Engagement with Literary Characters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Linda T.

    2013-01-01

    Reader response, simulation, and assimilation theories offer insights to our emotional connections with characters. Findings from a study conducted with avid fourth-grade readers show that when the children feel they are next to the character, they acentrally imagine the narrative and experience sympathy. The children also participate and…

  18. Null controllability for a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Hang

    2009-01-01

    In the paper,the null interior controllability for a fourth order parabolic equation is obtained.The method Is based on Lebeau-Rabbiano inequality which is a quantitative unique continuation property for the sum of eigenfunctions of the Laplacian.

  19. Virginia Tech team places fourth at Solar Decathlon 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Chadwick, Heather Riley

    2005-01-01

    A house designed and built by a team of students from Virginia Tech's College of Architecture and Urban Studies and College of Engineering placed fourth overall on Friday, Oct. 14, at Solar Decathlon 2005, an international competition sponsored by the Department of Energy held on the Mall in Washington, D.C.

  20. Fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization was held October 9 to 11, 1979, at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland. It was sponsored by the National Bureau of Standards, the Electric Power Research Institute, the US Department of Energy, and the Gas Research Institute. The papers have been entered individually into EDB and ERA. (LTN)

  1. Did that Dog Sniff Violate the Fourth Amendment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawke, Catherine; Middleton, Tiffany

    2012-01-01

    Is sniffing at the front door of a private home by a trained narcotics detection dog a Fourth Amendment search requiring probable cause? Is a "drug dog" somehow like a manmade technology, such as a thermal imaging device? These were a couple of the questions recently presented to the U.S. Supreme Court during arguments in "Florida v. Jardines."…

  2. Dental Hygiene Program Clinic Manual, Fall 1997. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errico, Mary; Cama, Christine; Pastoriza-Maldonado, Alida

    This is the fourth edition of the Clinic Manual for the Dental Hygiene Program at Eugenio Maria de Hostos Community College in the Bronx (New York). It contains general information, grading procedures, performance guides, and clinical forms related to the program. Section 1 provides an introduction to clinic philosophy, policies, goals and…

  3. Multiway Filtering Based on Fourth-Order Cumulants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salah Bourennane

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new multiway filtering based on fourth-order cumulants for the denoising of noisy data tensor with correlated Gaussian noise. The classical multiway filtering is based on the TUCKALS3 algorithm that computes a lower-rank tensor approximation. The presented method relies on the statistics of the analyzed multicomponent signal. We first recall how the well-known lower rank-(K1,…,KN tensor approximation processed by TUCKALS3 alternating least square algorithm exploits second-order statistics. Then, we propose to introduce the fourth-order statistics in the TUCKALS3-based method. Indeed, the use of fourth-order cumulants enables to remove the Gaussian components of an additive noise. In the presented method the estimation of the n-mode projector on the n-mode signal subspace are built from the eigenvectors associated with the largest eigenvalues of a fourth-order cumulant slice matrix instead of a covariance matrix. Each projector is applied by means of the n-mode product operator on the n-mode of the data tensor. The qualitative results of the improved multiway TUCKALS3-based filterings are shown for the case of noise reduction in a color image and multicomponent seismic data.

  4. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow, which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells. We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2, the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  5. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU YanNan; JIAN HuaiYu

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow,which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells.We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2,the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  6. Transactions of the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Genk, M.S.; Hoover, M.D. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    This paper contains the presented papers at the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems. Topics of these papers include: space nuclear missions and applications, reactors and shielding, nuclear electric and nuclear propulsion, refractory alloys and high-temperature materials, instrumentation and control, energy conversion and storage, space nuclear fuels, thermal management, nuclear safety, simulation and modeling, and multimegawatt system concepts. (LSP)

  7. Fourth Way in Action: Teacher Education in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Oon Seng

    2012-01-01

    Policy makers are often looking for solutions to develop their educational systems in today's highly competitive knowledge-based economy. Hargreaves and Shirley's Fourth Way provides a useful approach in analysing policy trends, successes and pitfalls, based on an observation of practices and research evidences in the west, particularly, the USA…

  8. The Fourth Amendment: Dormitory Room Searches in Public Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph M.; Strope, John L., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Examines 15 cases dealing with dormitory searches covering a 31-year period to determine how the Fourth Amendment applies to dormitory searches. The prevailing consensus is that if a university says and thinks it has the right to conduct a search of a room for health, safety, and maintenance reasons, then, in most circumstances, it has this right.…

  9. Fourth Zagreb index of Circumcoronene series of Benzenoid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza FARAHANI

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A topological index of a graph is a numeric quantity related to a structure of a molecule which is invariant under graph automorphism. Recently, Ghorbani and Hosseinzadeh introduced Fourth Zagreb index of graphs. In this paper we determine a closed formula of this new topological index of the famous Benzenoid family named Circumcoronene series of Benzenoid Hk.

  10. North Carolina Tales Fly with Fourth Grade Tellers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, Gretchen Daub

    2008-01-01

    In fourth grade, North Carolina students are required to write their own personal narratives. The teachers felt that telling a story would be a great stepping stone toward writing one. Rather than focusing on grammar and the mechanics of writing, students could focus on story development and creativity. In this article, the author describes how…

  11. Fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary-value problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Leszczynski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we consider the fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary value problem with both advance and retardation. We apply the direct method of the calculus of variations and the mountain pass technique to prove the existence of at least one and at least two solutions. Non-existence of non-trivial solutions is also undertaken.

  12. Dietary Behaviors among Fourth Graders: A Social Cognitive Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, Sara J.; Sargent, Roger G.; Rheaume, Carol E.; Saunders, Ruth P.

    1999-01-01

    Examined the impact of behavioral, personal, and environmental factors on fourth graders' dietary practices, using a social cognitive theory framework. Survey results highlighted social cognitive variables that significantly influenced dietary behaviors: gender, race, socioeconomic status, fruit and vegetable availability at home, nutrition…

  13. Fourth annual report to Congress, Federal Alternative Motor Fuels Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    This annual report to Congress presents the current status of the alternative fuel vehicle programs being conducted across the country in accordance with the Alternative Motor Fuels Act of 1988. These programs, which represent the most comprehensive data collection effort ever undertaken on alternative fuels, are beginning their fifth year. This report summarizes tests and results from the fourth year.

  14. Discrimination Evidence for Examining Fourth Grade Students' Learning Disability Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Abdulhameed S.; Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the ability of discriminate variables (perceptual-motor, hyperactivity disorder, neurological and psychological skills) to distinguish between normal (n = 68) and students with learning disabilities (n = 72) in fourth grade. Three instruments were developed: perceptual-motor scale, hyperactivity disorder scale, skills test…

  15. Fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary-value problems

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    In this article we consider the fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary value problem with both advance and retardation. We apply the direct method of the calculus of variations and the mountain pass technique to prove the existence of at least one and at least two solutions. Non-existence of non-trivial solutions is also undertaken.

  16. POSITIVE SOLUTIONS TO FOURTH-ORDER NEUMANN BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we study a class of fourth-order Neumann boundary value problem (NBVP for short). By virtue of fixed point index and the spectral theory of linear operators, the existence of positive solutions is obtained under the assumption that the nonlinearity satisfies sublinear or superlinear conditions, which are relevant to the first eigenvalue of the corresponding linear operator.

  17. Projections of the East Asian Winter Monsoon under the IPCC AR5 Scenarios Using a Coupled Model:IAP_FGOALS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Ke; BAO Qing

    2012-01-01

    Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in future projections were studied based on two core future projections of CMIP5 in coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS2-s.The projected changes of EAWM in climatology,seasonality,and interannual variability are reported here;the projections indicated strong warming in winter season.Warming increased with latitude,ranging from 1℃ to 3℃ in the Representative Concentration Pathways simulation RCP4.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ~4.5 W m-2 in 2100) and from 4℃ to 9℃ in the RCP8.5 projection (an experiment that results in additional radiative forcing of ~8.5 W m-2 in 2100).The northerly wind along the East Asian coastal region became stronger in both scenarios,indicating a stronger EAWM.Accordingly,interannual variability (described by the standard deviation of temperature) increased around the South China Sea and lower latitudes and decreased over eastern China,especially in North China.The two EAWM basic modes,defined by the temperature EOF analysis over East Asia,were associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and stratospheric polar vortex.The future projections revealed more total variance attributable to the secondary mode,suggesting additional influences from the stratosphere.The correlation between AO and the leading mode decreased,while the correlation between AO and the secondary mode increased,implying increased complexity regarding the predictability of EAWM interannual variations in future projections.

  18. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  19. 75 FR 35121 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-21

    ...: The IPCC was established as an intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review ACTION: The United States Global Change Research and... sustainable manner. Capacity building, technology transfer and financing in different regions are...

  20. Stable oxygen isotopes in fossil chironomids: development of a new proxy for past climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbruggen, F.

    2010-01-01

    Climate is changing rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a comprehensive report stating that the current climate warming is unequivocal. It assessed the possible causes and magnitude of future climate warming as well as the expected consequences. Many ecos

  1. In search of a European legislative approach to adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keessen, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The European Union has started to plan for adaptation to climate change. It is acting on the IPCC Assessments reports warning that climate change is already happening. Warming is evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice a

  2. Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

  3. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The p

  4. A case of atypical nocardia asteroides sclerouveitis resistant to fourth-generation fluoroquinolones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Túlio Frade Reis

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT We describe an unusual case of Nocardia spp scleritis in a health girl resistant to topical fourth-generation fluoroquinolones. Clinically, there was only partial response of the scleritis to initial therapy. Treatment was changed to meropenem intravenously and topical amikacin. Following several weeks of antibiotic treatment, the patient's infection resolved but her vision was reduced to no light perception. Nocardia asteroides must be considered as a possible agent in cases of necrotizing scleritis in patients without a clear source. Antibiotic sensitivity testing has a definitive role in view of the resistance to these new medications.

  5. Methotrexate administration directly into the fourth ventricle in children with malignant fourth ventricular brain tumors: a pilot clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, David I; Rytting, Michael; Zaky, Wafik; Kerr, Marcia; Ketonen, Leena; Kundu, Uma; Moore, Bartlett D; Yang, Grace; Hou, Ping; Sitton, Clark; Cooper, Laurence J; Gopalakrishnan, Vidya; Lee, Dean A; Thall, Peter F; Khatua, Soumen

    2015-10-01

    We hypothesize that chemotherapy can be safely administered directly into the fourth ventricle to treat recurrent malignant brain tumors in children. For the first time in humans, methotrexate was infused into the fourth ventricle in children with recurrent, malignant brain tumors. A catheter was surgically placed into the fourth ventricle and attached to a ventricular access device. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow was confirmed by CINE MRI postoperatively. Each cycle consisted of 4 consecutive daily methotrexate infusions (2 milligrams). Disease response was monitored with serial MRI scans and CSF cytologic analysis. Trough CSF methotrexate levels were sampled. Five patients (3 with medulloblastoma and 2 with ependymoma) received 18, 18, 12, 9, and 3 cycles, respectively. There were no serious adverse events or new neurological deficits attributed to methotrexate. Two additional enrolled patients were withdrawn prior to planned infusions due to rapid disease progression. Median serum methotrexate level 4 h after infusion was 0.04 µmol/L. Range was 0.02-0.13 µmol/L. Median trough CSF methotrexate level 24 h after infusion was 3.18 µmol/L (range 0.53-212.36 µmol/L). All three patients with medulloblastoma had partial response or stable disease until one patient had progressive disease after cycle 18. Both patients with ependymoma had progressive disease after 9 and 3 cycles, respectively. Low-dose methotrexate can be infused into the fourth ventricle without causing neurological toxicity. Some patients with recurrent medulloblastoma experience a beneficial anti-tumor effect both within the fourth ventricle and at distant sites.

  6. Estimation of the fourth-order dispersion coefficient β4

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing Huang; Jianquan Yao

    2012-01-01

    The fourth-order dispersion coefficient of fibers are estimated by the iterations around the third-order dispersion and the high-order nonlinear items in the nonlinear Schordinger equation solved by Green's function approach.Our theoretical evaluation demonstrates that the fourth-order dispersion coefficient slightly varies with distance.The fibers also record β4 values of about 0.002,0.003,and 0.00032 ps4/km for SMF,NZDSF and DCF,respectively.In the zero-dispersion regime,the high-order nonlinear effect (higher than self-steepening) has a strong impact on the transmitted short pulse.This red-shifts accelerates the symmetrical split of the pulse,although this effect is degraded rapidly with the increase of β2.Thus,the contributions to β4 of SMF,NZDSF,and DCF can be neglected.

  7. FOURTH REVIEW OF TESTS PUBLISHED IN SPAIN: FORM AND CONTENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Elosua

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the quality of tests and disseminating the results has been implemented in the international arena with the aim of improving testing and professional practice. Assessing tests provides users with an independent review, which follows clearly defined procedures and criteria. In Spain, the Spanish Association of Psychology (COP leads the “test evaluation” project, which has recently completed its fourth edition. Basically, there are two primary assessment models; the Buros model and the European Federation of Psychologists’ Associations (EFPA model, which has been adopted by the COP. The two models share the same objectives and content; excluding the evaluation format and the management system, they are similar in essence. In this paper, we present the results of the fourth edition of the Spanish test evaluation program following the general guidelines for assessing the quality of tests, and we explain the critical points affecting each phase of the process

  8. Primary intra-fourth ventricular meningioma: Report two cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishanth Sadashiva

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Meningioma's occurring intraventricular region are rare and these occurring in the fourth ventricle is even rare. Because of the rarity, it is not usually considered as a differential diagnosis in any age group. Clinical features and Imaging is not characteristic, and most of them are thought to be some different tumor. Here, we discuss two cases harboring a primary fourth ventricular meningioma Grade II, which was surgically excised successfully. Total excision was achieved in both cases and as the tumor was firm to soft and vermian splitting was not required. Understanding the clinical features and a careful preoperative radiological examination is required to differentiate this tumor from more commonly occurring lesions at this location.

  9. Spinal accessory nerve schwannomas masquerading as a fourth ventricular lesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyam Sundar Krishnan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Schwannomas are benign lesions that arise from the nerve sheath of cranial nerves. The most common schwannomas arise from the 8 th cranial nerve (the vestibulo-cochlear nerve followed by trigeminal and facial nerves and then from glossopharyngeal, vagus, and spinal accessory nerves. Schwannomas involving the oculomotor, trochlear, abducens and hypoglossal nerves are very rare. We report a very unusual spinal accessory nerve schwannoma which occupied the fourth ventricle and extended inferiorly to the upper cervical canal. The radiological features have been detailed. The diagnostic dilemma was due to its midline posterior location mimicking a fourth ventricular lesion like medulloblastoma and ependymoma. Total excision is the ideal treatment for these tumors. A brief review of literature with tabulations of the variants has been listed.

  10. The fourth edition of the ASP took place in Kigali

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2016-01-01

    The fourth biennial African School of Fundamental Physics and Applications (ASP) took place on 1-19 August in Africa’s cleanest city, Kigali in Rwanda.   The students of the fourth African School of Fundamental Physics and Applications pose for the traditional conference group picture. Many lecturers flew in from CERN to give lectures and mentor students. (Photo: Gilbert Tekoute) Seventy-five students from around the African continent, chosen from 439 applicants, were hosted in the University of Rwanda’s College of Sciences and Technology for about 3 weeks. The school received financial support from CERN and 19 other institutions in total, including the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Brookhaven National Laboratory, the South African National Research Foundation and Department of Technology, the Rwandan Ministry of Education, INFN, and other major particle physics laboratories, as well as governmental institutions in Africa, Europe and the United States....

  11. Constraints on Majorana dark matter from a fourth lepton family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hapola, T.; Jarvinen, M.; Kouvaris, C.

    2014-01-01

    We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC and coll......We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC...... and collider physics, underground direct detectors, neutrino telescopes, and indirect astrophysical searches. Although we embed the WIMP candidate within a model of composite dynamics, the majority of our results are model independent and applicable to all models where heavy neutrinos with suppressed couplings...

  12. Pseudo-randomness of the fourth class of GSS sequences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yupu; XIAO Guozhen

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses pseudo-randomness of a periodic sequence, named the fourth class of GSS sequence. We get the ollowing results: ① Its least period always reaches the maximum (that is, 2n-1). ② Its least period and linear complexity keep robust under single-symbol-substitution. ③ It has good Iow-degree-auto-correlation feature. ④It has good short-length-run-distribution.

  13. Distance Learning in Einstein’s Fourth Dimension

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    This article blends the concepts of space-time from theoretical physics and Einstein’s Relativity Theory to discuss the spatio-temporal nature of distance education. By comparing and contrasting speed-of-light space travel with the speed of computer processing, the leap is made to consider the fourth dimension and its phenomena for the Web traveler. Learning events are compared with events in time to depict the theory presented.

  14. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  15. Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

    <正>The Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum on "revitalizing people-to-people cultural exchanges for peace and prosperity",co-sponsored by the CPAFFC and Shenzhen University,was held in Shenzhen from November 14 to 17,2012. More than 60 experts and scholars from over 40 Chinese research institutes and their colleagues from India,the United States and Singapore engaged in in-depth discussions on economic cooperation and cultural development,the present condi-

  16. New Efficient Fourth Order Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farooq Ahmad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In a paper [Appl. Math. Comput., 188 (2 (2007 1587--1591], authors have suggested and analyzed a method for solving nonlinear equations. In the present work, we modified this method by using the finite difference scheme, which has a quintic convergence. We have compared this modified Halley method with some other iterative of fifth-orders convergence methods, which shows that this new method having convergence of fourth order, is efficient.

  17. Fourth Meeting of China-Spain Forum Held in Madrid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>Chairman Hu Qili and Executive Chairman Chen Haosu of the Chinese Committee of the China-Spain Forum(CSF) led a Chinese delegation to attend the Fourth Meeting of the CSF in Madrid from November 27 to 28,2007.The meeting with the theme of "Harmony,Development and Gaining Win-Win Results" was jointly sponsored by the CPAFFC,the CSF Chinese Committee,the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Spain China Council Foundation.

  18. Within and beyond the 'fourth generation' of revolutionary theory

    OpenAIRE

    Lawson, George

    2016-01-01

    Recent years have seen renewed interest in the study of revolutions. Yet the burgeoning interest in revolutionary events has not been matched by a comparable interest in the\\ud development of revolutionary theory. For the most part, empirical studies of revolutions remain contained within the parameters established by the ‘fourth generation’ of\\ud revolutionary theory. This body of work sees revolutions as conjunctural amalgams of systemic crisis, structural opening, and collective action, wh...

  19. Nodal Solutions for a Nonlinear Fourth-Order Eigenvalue Problem

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ru Yun MA; Bevan THOMPSON

    2008-01-01

    We are concerned with determining the values of λ, for which there exist nodal solutions of the fourth-order boundary value problem y =λa(x)f(y),00 for all u ≠0. We give conditions on the ratio f (s)/s,at infinity and zero, that guarantee the existence of nodal solutions.The proof of our main results is based upon bifurcation techniques.

  20. Fourth Beijing Human Rights Forum Held in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUR STAFF REPORTER

    2012-01-01

    The Fourth Beijing Forum on Human Rights was held in Beijing from September 21-23,2011.Jointly sponsored by the China Society for Human Rights Studies and the China Human Rights Development Foundation,the forum was centered on the theme of "Cultural Tradition,Concept of Values and Human Rights." Attending were nearly 100senior human rights officials,specialists and scholars from 26 countries and regions as well as the United Nations and other international organizations.

  1. The Superior Transvelar Approach to the Fourth Ventricle and Brainstem

    OpenAIRE

    Ezer, Haim; Banerjee, Anirban Deep; Bollam, Papireddy; Guthikonda, Bharat; Nanda, Anil

    2012-01-01

    Objective The superior transvelar approach is used to access pathologies located in the fourth ventricle and brainstem. The surgical path is below the venous structures, through the superior medullary velum. Following splitting the tentorial edge, near the tentorial apex, the superior medullary velum is split in the cerebello-mesencephalic fissure. Using the supracerebellar infratentorial, transtentorial or parietal interhemispheric routes, the superior medullary velum is approached. Splittin...

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions from swine operations: evaluation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change approaches through meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z; Powers, W; Liu, H

    2013-08-01

    The objective was to provide a systematic review of the literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from swine operations, with a meta-analysis that integrates results of independent studies. A total of 53 studies that measured GHG emissions from swine operations were included in the analyses. Results showed that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approaches were effective in estimating the overall CH4 and N2O emission levels from swine operations, but the variation of the measured emissions is not adequately captured. An overestimation by the IPCC approaches for CH4 emissions was observed for swine buildings with pit systems in European studies and the average percentage relative difference (PRD) between the measured and the IPCC values is -21.1%. The observed CH4 emissions from lagoons were lower than the IPCC estimated values and the average PRD is -33.9%. In North American studies the observed N2O emission factors for swine buildings with pit systems were significantly lower than the IPCC default values whereas in European studies they were significantly greater than the IPCC default values. The measured CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by stage of production (P = 0.05 and <0.01, respectively) and geographic regions (P = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). The IPCC approaches were effective in simulating the effect of temperature on CH4 emissions from outdoor slurry storage facilities whereas they could overestimate CH4 emissions from lagoons at low temperatures. The CH4 emissions from pits inside swine buildings were not significantly affected by average ambient temperatures. A positive relationship between diet CP content and CH4 emissions was confirmed in the meta-analysis. The obtained knowledge can be helpful in efforts to improve estimation of GHG emissions from swine operations.

  3. Fourth-order gravity gradient torque of spacecraft orbiting asteroids

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Yue; Xu, Shijie

    2014-01-01

    The dynamical behavior of spacecraft around asteroids is a key element in design of such missions. An asteroid's irregular shape, non-spherical mass distribution and its rotational sate make the dynamics of spacecraft quite complex. This paper focuses on the gravity gradient torque of spacecraft around non-spherical asteroids. The gravity field of the asteroid is approximated as a 2nd degree and order-gravity field with harmonic coefficients C20 and C22. By introducing the spacecraft's higher-order inertia integrals, a full fourth-order gravity gradient torque model of the spacecraft is established through the gravitational potential derivatives. Our full fourth-order model is more precise than previous fourth-order model due to the consideration of higher-order inertia integrals of the spacecraft. Some interesting conclusions about the gravity gradient torque model are reached. Then a numerical simulation is carried out to verify our model. In the numerical simulation, a special spacecraft consisted of 36 po...

  4. Fourth-Order Difference Methods for Hyperbolic IBVPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Bertil; Olsson, Pelle

    1995-03-01

    In this paper we consider fourth-order difference approximations of initial-boundary value problems for hyperbolic partial differential equations. We use the method of lines approach with both explicit and compact implicit difference operators in space. The explicit operator satisfies an energy estimate leading to strict stability. For the implicit operator we develop boundary conditions and give a complete proof of strong stability using the Laplace transform technique. We also present numerical experiments for the linear advection equation and Burgers' equation with discontinuities in the solution or in its derivative. The first equation is used for modeling contact discontinuities in fluid dynamics; the second one is used for modeling shocks and rarefaction waves. The time discretization is done with a third-order Runge-Kutta TVD method. For solutions with discontinuities in the solution itself we add a filter based on second-order viscosity. In case of the non-linear Burgers' equation we use a flux splitting technique that results in an energy estimate for certain difference approximations, in which case also an entropy condition is fulfilled. In particular we shall demonstrate that the unsplit conservative form produces a non-physical shock instead of the physically correct rarefaction wave. In the numerical experiments we compare our fourth-order methods with a standard second-order one and with a third-order TVD method. The results show that the fourth-order methods are the only ones that give good results for all the considered test problems.

  5. Masses of a Fourth Generation with Two Higgs Doublets

    CERN Document Server

    Bellantoni, Leo; Heckman, Jonathan J; Ramirez-Homs, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    We use sampling techniques to find robust constraints on the masses of a possible fourth sequential fermion generation from electroweak oblique variables. We find that in the case of a light (115 GeV) Higgs from a single electroweak symmetry breaking doublet, inverted mass hierarchies are possible for both quarks and leptons, but a mass splitting more than M(W) in the quark sector is unlikely. We also find constraints in the case of a heavy (600 GeV) Higgs in a single doublet model. As recent data from the Large Hadron Collider hints at the existence of a resonance at 124.5 GeV and a single Higgs doublet at that mass is inconsistent with a fourth fermion generation, we examine a type II two Higgs doublet model. In this model, there are ranges of parameter space where the Higgs sector can potentially counteract the effects of the fourth generation. Even so, we find that such scenarios produce qualitatively similar fermion mass distribtions.

  6. Gauge-coupling unification and the minimal SUSY model a fourth generation below the top?

    CERN Document Server

    Gunion, J F; Pois, H; Douglas W McKay

    1994-01-01

    \\centerline{\\bf Abstract} We explore the possibility of a fourth generation in the gauge-coupling-unified, minimal supersymmetric (MSSM) framework. We find that a sequential fourth generation (with a heavy neutrino \

  7. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  8. Using a coupled groundwater/surfacewater model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, Northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John

    2009-01-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive outwash sand aquifer. In this area, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, surface runoff occurs during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. Surface runoff also occurs locally near stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. A diverse data set, collected from 1992 to 2007 for the Trout Lake WEBB project and the co-located and NSF-funded North Temperate Lakes LTER project, includes snowpack, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, lake levels, groundwater levels, and streamflow. The timeseries processing software TSPROC (Doherty 2003) was used to distill the large time series data set to a smaller set of observations and summary statistics that captured the salient hydrologic information. The timeseries processing reduced hundreds of thousands of observations to less than 5,000. Model calibration included specific predictions for several lakes in the study area using the PEST parameter estimation suite of software (Doherty 2007). The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response in the study lakes to a variety of climate change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon et al. 2007). Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the lake levels and components of the hydrologic budget of a seepage lake in the flow system. For a drainage lake

  9. 76 FR 37007 - Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display, Stockton, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July... Stockton Ports Baseball Club will sponsor the Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display... read as follows: Sec. 165.T11-422 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July...

  10. The fourth dimension in immunological space: how the struggle for nutrients selects high-affinity lymphocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wensveen, Felix M; van Gisbergen, Klaas P J M; Eldering, Eric

    2012-09-01

    Lymphocyte activation via the antigen receptor is associated with radical shifts in metabolism and changes in requirements for nutrients and cytokines. Concomitantly, drastic changes occur in the expression of pro-and anti-apoptotic proteins that alter the sensitivity of lymphocytes to limiting concentrations of key survival factors. Antigen affinity is a primary determinant for the capacity of activated lymphocytes to access these vital resources. The shift in metabolic needs and the variable access to key survival factors is used by the immune system to eliminate activated low-affinity cells and to generate an optimal high-affinity response. In this review, we focus on the control of apoptosis regulators in activated lymphocytes by nutrients, cytokines, and costimulation. We propose that the struggle among individual clones that leads to the formation of high-affinity effector cell populations is in effect an 'invisible' fourth signal required for effective immune responses.

  11. Can the Ethics of the Fourth Estate Persevere in a Global Age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ejvind

    2014-01-01

    for ethically good journalism. I argue that ethical evaluations should focus upon the meeting between normative ideals and factual realities. This meeting is always open because ideals can challenge reality, just as reality can challenge ideals. Ethical questions are thus always raising a fundamental “maybe......”. Traditionally the ideals of journalists have been articulated in close affiliation with ideas of the Fourth Estate. However, due to our globalised communicative structure, this articulation is in need of revision. I argue that the ethical requests change because the structure of Internet-based publics changes....... Departing from this situation I suggest that journalistic products are ethically urgent insofar as they both bring communities together and give voice to the inarticulate or voiceless. I argue that in order to substantiate this approach it is important to articulate rules, because rules further...

  12. The Climate Change Challenge in Africa:- Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Adebamowo Michael; Uduma-Olugu Nnezi; Oginni Adeyemi

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is now a reality, and is already having devastating effects on the natural environment and human populations across the world. Many studies (Maathai, 2006; UNFCC 2006; CCDI 2007; IPCC 2007 and UNDP 2009) have confirmed that Africa contributes the least to global warming but the region is the most vulnerable and most adversely affected by climate change. Unpredictable rains and floods, prolonged droughts, subsequent crop failures and rapid desertification among others have in fa...

  13. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin

    2013-01-01

    be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts...

  14. Coastal adaptation to climate change: A case study in Durban, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geldenhuys, M.A.; Jonkman, S.N.; Mather, A.A.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ledden, M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent research done the IPCC (2007) working groups and other organizations has sparked global concern over the possible impacts of climate change and corresponding sea level rise (SLR) upon coastal communities. In reaction studies were done (for example by Nicholls et al., 2008) to assess the vulne

  15. Tradeoff Analysis Between Economic Development and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for River Nile Basin Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) briefings have declared that the growing population in the Nile river basin region (about 160 million, or 57% of the entire population of the basin’s ten riparian countries) is at risk of water scarcity. Adjustment strategies in response to cl...

  16. Proceedings Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming

    CERN Document Server

    Chapman, James; 10.4204/EPTCS.76

    2012-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming (MSFP 2012), taking place on 25 March, 2012 in Tallinn, Estonia, as a satellite event of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software, ETAPS 2012. MSFP is devoted to the derivation of functionality from structure. It highlights concepts from algebra, semantics and type theory as they are increasingly reflected in programming practice, especially functional programming. The workshop consists of two invited presentations and eight contributed papers on a range of topics at that interface.

  17. THE ANALYSIS OF ILLUSTRATIONS IN THE FOURTH CLASS GEOGRAPHY TEXTBOOKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IOANA CHIRCEV

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the analysis of the illustrations found in five different Geography textbooks in Romania. The analysis is based on several criteria: number, size, clarity, pedagogical usefulness. The following conclusions have been drawn: the illustrations are numerous; most of the illustrations are too small and unclear to be efficiently used in the teaching activity; the purpose of some materials is purely illustrative; some illustrations are overcharged with details, which prevent children from understanding them. Authors and publishing houses are advised to choose the illustrations in the fourth class Geography textbooks more carefully.

  18. The Fourth Gravity Test and Quintessence Matter Field

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Molin; Yu, Benhai; Yu, Fei; Gui, Yuanxing

    2010-01-01

    After the previous work on gravitational frequency shift, light deflection (arXiv:1003.5296) and perihelion advance (arXiv:0812.2332), we calculate carefully the fourth gravity test, i.e. radar echo delay in a central gravity field surrounded by static free quintessence matter, in this paper. Through the Lagrangian method, we find the influence of the quintessence matter on the time delay of null particle is presence by means of an additional integral term. When the quintessence field vanishe...

  19. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2009-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 (July - September 2009). Tasks reports include: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool. Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting. Phase II, (4) Update and Maintain Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), (5) Verify MesoNAM Performance (6) develop a Graphical User Interface to update selected parameters for the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLlT)

  20. Fourth order wave equations with nonlinear strain and source terms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yacheng; Xu, Runzhang

    2007-07-01

    In this paper we study the initial boundary value problem for fourth order wave equations with nonlinear strain and source terms. First we introduce a family of potential wells and prove the invariance of some sets and vacuum isolating of solutions. Then we obtain a threshold result of global existence and nonexistence. Finally we discuss the global existence of solutions for the problem with critical initial condition I(u0)[greater-or-equal, slanted]0, E(0)=d. So the Esquivel-Avila's results are generalized and improved.

  1. Ghost-free, finite, fourth-order D = 3 gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, S

    2009-09-04

    Canonical analysis of a recently proposed linear + quadratic curvature gravity model in D = 3 establishes its pure, irreducibly fourth derivative, quadratic curvature limit as both ghost-free and power-counting UV finite, thereby maximally violating standard folklore. This limit is representative of a generic class whose kinetic terms are conformally invariant in any dimension, but it is unique in simultaneously avoiding the transverse-traceless graviton ghosts plaguing D > 3 quadratic actions as well as double pole propagators in its other variables. While the two-term model is also unitary, its additional mode's second-derivative nature forfeits finiteness.

  2. Walk to the Fourth World Conference on Women

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1995-01-01

    China’s First Data Base of Women’s Documents Emerges IN order to greet the UN Fourth World Conference on Women and promote the academic exchange of women’s studies at home and abroad, China’s first data base of women’s documents, which was developed by the Research Department of Women’s Studies of the All-China Women’s Federation opened to the public this March. China’s women’s studies programs started in the 1980s.

  3. Scale-invariant scalar spectrum from the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term

    CERN Document Server

    Myung, Yun Soo

    2015-01-01

    An exactly scale-invariant spectrum of scalar perturbation generated during de Sitter spacetime is found from the gravity model of the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term. The nonminimal derivative coupling term generates a healthy (ghost-free) fourth-order derivative term, while the fourth-order term provides an unhealthy (ghost) fourth-order derivative term. The Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum obtained from Fourier transforming the fourth-order propagator in de Sitter space is recovered by computing the power spectrum in its momentum space directly. It shows that this model provides a truly scale-invariant spectrum, in addition to the Lee-Wick scalar theory.

  4. Assessing Water Management Impacts of Climate Change for a semi-arid Watershed in the Southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopal, S.; Dominguez, F.; Gupta, H. V.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Water managers for the City of Phoenix currently face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin in central Arizona. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the basins. Of the Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment we selected a five-model ensemble, including the three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a 25% statistically significant decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. This is primarily caused by decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. From the analysis of the future period, a synthetic climate dataset was created to reflect future changes in magnitude while preserving the correlation by perturbing the historical observed precipitation and temperature. This dataset was used to evaluate climate elasticity and improve water managers understanding of the impacts to the basin. The results shown in this presentation clearly indicate the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

  5. Measuring Engagement with the Potential Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, N.; Danielson, R. W.; Lombardi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Across three studies, we investigated engagement with the consequences of climate change. We drew from the conceptual change and risk analysis literatures to find the factors that determine how much people will care about future risks. Questions derived from these factors were then asked about many hypothesized consequences of climate change. These consequences were drawn from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report (IPCC, 2012) and, in the third study, additionally from the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014). The first two studies, using undergraduate students, demonstrated that some consequences were indeed considerably more engaging than others. The third study used a more representative sample of American adults, drawn from Amazon Mechanical Turk and used the Global Warming's Six Americas Screening Tool (Maibach, Leiserowitz, Roser-Renouf, Mertz, & Akerlof, 2011) in a large screening survey to find 20 participants in each of the six audiences defined by this tool. These participants were then asked about the potential consequences of climate change. Results again showed that some consequences are considered more engaging than others, and also showed the ways in which members of these six audiences perceive the consequences of climate change differently.

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  7. Towards a fourth spatial dimension of brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozzi, Arturo; Peters, James F

    2016-06-01

    Current advances in neurosciences deal with the functional architecture of the central nervous system, paving the way for general theories that improve our understanding of brain activity. From topology, a strong concept comes into play in understanding brain functions, namely, the 4D space of a "hypersphere's torus", undetectable by observers living in a 3D world. The torus may be compared with a video game with biplanes in aerial combat: when a biplane flies off one edge of gaming display, it does not crash but rather it comes back from the opposite edge of the screen. Our thoughts exhibit similar behaviour, i.e. the unique ability to connect past, present and future events in a single, coherent picture as if we were allowed to watch the three screens of past-present-future "glued" together in a mental kaleidoscope. Here we hypothesize that brain functions are embedded in a imperceptible fourth spatial dimension and propose a method to empirically assess its presence. Neuroimaging fMRI series can be evaluated, looking for the topological hallmark of the presence of a fourth dimension. Indeed, there is a typical feature which reveal the existence of a functional hypersphere: the simultaneous activation of areas opposite each other on the 3D cortical surface. Our suggestion-substantiated by recent findings-that brain activity takes place on a closed, donut-like trajectory helps to solve long-standing mysteries concerning our psychological activities, such as mind-wandering, memory retrieval, consciousness and dreaming state.

  8. Fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, D. (Editor); Peng, Kunchi (Editor); Kim, Y. S. (Editor); Manko, V. I. (Editor)

    1996-01-01

    The fourth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations was held at Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China, on June 5 - 9, 1995. This conference was jointly organized by Shanxi University, the University of Maryland (U.S.A.), and the Lebedev Physical Institute (Russia). The first meeting of this series was called the Workshop on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations, and was held in 1991 at College Park, Maryland. The second and third meetings in this series were hosted in 1992 by the Lebedev Institute in Moscow, and in 1993 by the University of Maryland Baltimore County, respectively. The scientific purpose of this series was initially to discuss squeezed states of light, but in recent years, the scope is becoming broad enough to include studies of uncertainty relations and squeeze transformations in all branches of physics, including, of course, quantum optics and foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum optics will continue playing the pivotal role in the future, but the future meetings will include all branches of physics where squeeze transformations are basic transformation. This transition took place at the fourth meeting of this series held at Shanxi University in 1995. The fifth meeting in this series will be held in Budapest (Hungary) in 1997, and the principal organizer will be Jozsef Janszky of the Laboratory of Crystal Physics, P.O. Box 132, H-1052. Budapest, Hungary.

  9. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

  10. Review and Quantitative Analysis of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity, and Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. UNFCCC Article 4 requires developed countries to assist developing countries that are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to its adverse effects. As a result, three funds have been established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources for assessing, planning, and implem...

  11. Homo Clima : Climate Man and Productive Power - Government through Climate Change as Bioaesthetic Frame.

    OpenAIRE

    Skoglund, Annika

    2011-01-01

    Former creative resistance to environmentally hazardous activities has during the last decades, through discussions on climate change, been increasingly reoriented by meteorology, expert knowledge and policy discourse. The ecological system’s perspective on climate change, proclaiming the human not simply as a disturbance in a natural balancing system, but as changing it, has become a causal model for the possibility to change that human. This PhD thesis interrogates how statements in IPCC re...

  12. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

  13. Sensitivity of sediment contamination in the Elbe Estuary to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleisinger, Carmen; Haase, Holger; Hentschke, Uwe; Schubert, Birgit

    2015-04-01

    the far future exceed the national assessment criteria for the handling of dredged material within coastal waterways more distinct than today. Therefore, adaptations of practices for the management of dredged material to higher particulate matter contaminations should be considered there in the medium or long-term perspective. On the one hand, e.g. the practices of depositing dredged- material within the water system might be adapted (BfG 2014). On the other hand, the implementation of remediation measures like those planned under the Water Framework Directive could mitigate the climate-induced increase of contaminants. However, before the planning of adaption measures begins, the respectively prevailing contamination status should be verified, as climate-induced changes of contaminant concentrations might be superimposed by direct anthropogenic activities, e.g. remediation measures to reduce contamination or construction works in waterways. Literature: BfG - Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2014) Sedimentmanagement Tideelbe - Strategien und Potenziale - Systemstudie II. Ökologische Auswirkungen der Unterbringung von Feinmaterial. Band 1, Endbericht. Im Auftrag des Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamtes Hamburg. Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz, BfG-Bericht 1763 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

  14. New radio model in the fourth screen: radiovision, the radio that you can watch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra CAVIA FRAILE

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The traditional radio is not strange to the social revolution that Internet and new technologies are raising. In recent years, the fourth screen has led the emergence of new models of radio, including Radiovision. The «radio that you can watch» intends to change and innovate the radio broadcasting media to offer a product that meets the multimedia requirements of users. However, currently, the Radiovisión is still at an early stage and it has many aspects that it should improve and care, as the contents and the staging. It is a big chance for the radio that poses challenges and opportunities both for journalism and journalists.

  15. The Fourth State Power – Case Study: Pamfil Şeicaru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fanel Teodorascu

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The first years of the interwar period brought a major change within the role that the pressplayed in the Romanian society. The politicians could not ignore the journalists’ opinions any longer.For many Romanians, to be a newspaper editor meant to defend the interests of the poor and of thedefendless people. The heads of the most important political parties were forced to allow the pressrepresentatives in the Parliament and in the ministerial cabinets. Thus the journalist turned into aprototypical dictator, and the whole press took its “fourth power” role seriously. Pamfil Şeicaru is oneof those journalists who had the great merit of having turned the press into a fierceful institution, thefourth state power, alongside with the executive, judicial and legislative powers.

  16. 第四核心资源%The Fourth Core Resource

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张基温

    2009-01-01

    Productivity is the ability of resource exploitation.The improvement of resource exploitation capabilities forms an important indicator of human social development.At present,human society has already witnessed the three phases of land resource,natural resource and the information resource exploitation,and is entering into the era of service resource exploitation.Service embraces some special functions such as optimizing the allocation of resources,relocating social distribution,reducing trade costs,improving product quality and storing the developing power.Every new growth area in great social change comes from the service field.As informationization increases,the service resource will become the fourth core resource in human society after material,energy and information.The service resource exploitation ability is sure to be a sign of advanced productivity and superiority in social competition.

  17. The fourth gravity test and quintessence matter field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Molin; Yu, Benhai [Xinyang Normal University, College of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Xinyang (China); Yu, Fei; Gui, Yuanxing [Dalian University of Technology, School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian (China)

    2010-06-15

    After the previous work on gravitational frequency shift, light deflection (Eur. Phys. J. C 59: 107-116, 2009) and perihelion advance (Eur. Phys. J. C 60: 175-179, 2009), we calculate carefully the fourth gravity test, i.e. radar echo delay in a central gravity field surrounded by static free quintessence matter, in this paper. Through the Lagrangian method, we find the influence of the quintessence matter on the time delay of null particle is presence by means of an additional integral term. When the quintessence field vanishes, it reduces to the usual Schwarzschild case naturally. Meanwhile, we also use the data of the Viking lander from the Mars and Cassini spacecraft to Saturn to constrain the quintessence field. For the Viking case, the field parameter {alpha} is under the order of 10{sup -9}. However, {alpha} is under 10{sup -18} for the Cassini case. (orig.)

  18. The Fourth Gravity Test and Quintessence Matter Field

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Molin; Yu, Fei; Gui, Yuanxing

    2010-01-01

    After the previous work on gravitational frequency shift, light deflection (arXiv:1003.5296) and perihelion advance (arXiv:0812.2332), we calculate carefully the fourth gravity test, i.e. radar echo delay in a central gravity field surrounded by static free quintessence matter, in this paper. Through the Lagrangian method, we find the influence of the quintessence matter on the time delay of null particle is presence by means of an additional integral term. When the quintessence field vanishes, it reduces to the usual Schwarzschild case naturally. Meanwhile, we also use the data of the Viking lander from the Mars and Cassini spacecraft to Saturn to constrain the quintessence field. For the Viking case, the field parameter $\\alpha$ is under the order of $10^{-9}$. However, $\\alpha$ is under $10^{-18}$ for the Cassini case.

  19. The fourth-generation Water Vapor Millimeter-Wave Spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, R. Michael; Nedoluha, Gerald E.; Neal, Helen L.; McDermid, I. Stuart

    2012-02-01

    For 20 years the Naval Research Laboratory has been making continuous water vapor profile measurements at 22.235 GHz with the Water Vapor Millimeter-Wave Spectrometer (WVMS) instruments, with the program expanding from one to three instruments in the first 6 years. Since the initial deployments there have been gradual improvements in the instrument design which have improved data quality and reduced maintenance requirements. Recent technological developments have made it possible to entirely redesign the instrument and improve not only the quality of the measurements but also the capability of the instrument. We present the fourth-generation instrument now operating at Table Mountain, California, which incorporates the most recent advances in microwave radiometry. This instrument represents the most significant extension of our measurement capability to date, enabling us to measure middle atmospheric water vapor from ˜26-80 km.

  20. Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hills, Richard Guy; Witkowski, Walter R.; Urbina, Angel; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2013-09-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNLs mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

  1. Minutes of the fourth SALE program participants meeting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-10-01

    This report is a documentation of the presentations made to the Fourth Safeguards Analytical Laboratory Evaluation (S.A.L.E.) Program Participants Meeting at Argonne, Illinois, July 8-9, 1981. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy and was coordinated by the S.A.L.E. Program of the New Brunswick Laboratory. The objective of the meeting was to provide a forum through which administration of the Program and methods appropriate to the analysis of S.A.L.E. Program samples could be discussed. The Minutes of the Meeting is a collection of presentations by the speakers at the meeting and of the discussions following the presentations. The presentations are included as submitted by the speakers. The discussion sections were transcribed from tape recordings of the meeting and were edited to clarify and emphasize important comments. Seventeen papers have been abstracted and indexed.

  2. A novel circuit architecture for fourth subharmonie mixers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Changfei; Xu Conghai; Zhou Ming; Luo Yunsheng

    2012-01-01

    A circuit topology for high-order subharmonic (SH) mixers is described.By phase cancellation of idle frequency components,the SH mixer circuit can eliminate the complicated design procedure of idle frequency circuits.Similarly,the SH mixer circuit can achieve a high port isolation by phase cancellation of the leakage LO,RF and idle frequency signals.Based on the high-order SH mixer architecture,a new Ka-band fourth SH mixer is analyzed and designed,it shows the lowest measured conversion loss of 8.3 dB at 38.4 GHz and the loss is lower than 10.3 dB in 34-39 GHz.Measured LO-IF,RF-LO,RF-IF port isolation are better than 30.7 dB,22.9dB and 46.5 dB,respectively.

  3. Fourth international workshop on human chromosome 5. Final progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McPherson, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Fourth International Workshop on Human Chromosome 5 was held in Manchester, UK on November 9--10, 1996 and was hosted by the University of Manchester. The major goals of the workshop were: (1) to collate the various genetic, cytogenetic and physical maps of human chromosome 5; (2) to integrate these maps and identify/correct discrepancies between them wherever possible; (3) to catalogue the sequence-ready contigs of the chromosome; (4) to co-ordinate the various sequencing efforts to avoid future duplication; (5) to establish the first (to the author`s knowledge) web site for the human chromosome 5 community which contains the above information in a readily accessible form.

  4. Wavelet-based Image Enhancement Using Fourth Order PDE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nadernejad, Ehsan; Forchhammer, Søren

    2011-01-01

    The presence of noise interference signal may cause problems in signal and image analysis; hence signal and image de-noising is often used as a preprocessing stage in many signal processing applications. In this paper, a new method is presented for image de-noising based on fourth order partial...... differential equations (PDEs) and wavelet transform. In the existing wavelet thresholding methods, the final noise reduced image has limited improvement. It is due to keeping the approximate coefficients of the image unchanged. These coefficients have the main information of the image. Since noise affects both...... indicate superiority of the proposed method over the existing waveletbased image de-noising, anisotropic diffusion, and wiener filtering techniques....

  5. The software factory: A fourth generation software engineering environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.W.

    1989-01-01

    The software-development process and its management are examined in a text intended for engineering managers and students of computer science. A unified concept based on the principle that software design is an engineering science rather than an art is applied, and a software engineering environment (SEE) analogous to an industrial plant is proposed. Chapters are devoted to the classical software environment, the history of software engineering, the evolution of the SEE, the fourth-generation SEE, the engineering process, software-data relationships, the SEE data base, data control in the SEE, software life cycles, information-system product assurance, business management and control, and automating and adapting the SEE. 143 refs.

  6. Fourth ICT Innovations conference ”Secure and Intelligent Systems”

    CERN Document Server

    Gusev, Marjan; ICT Innovations 2012 : Secure and Intelligent Systems

    2013-01-01

    The present stage of the human civilization is the e-society, which is build over the achievements obtained by the development of the information and communication technologies. It affects everyone, from ordinary mobile phone users to designers of high quality industrial products, and every human activity, from taking medical care to improving the state governing. The science community working in computer sciences and informatics is therefore under constant challenge; it has to solve the new appeared theoretical problem as well as to find new practical solutions. \\\\ The fourth ICT Innovations Conference, held in September 2012 in Ohrid, Macedonia, was one of the several world-wide forums where academics, professionals and practitioners presented their last scientific results and development applications in the fields of high performance and parallel computing, bioinformatics, human computer interaction, security and cryptography, computer and mobile networks, neural networks, cloud computing, process verifica...

  7. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management

    CERN Document Server

    Boulanger, Frédéric; Krob, Daniel; Marchal, Clotilde

    2014-01-01

    This book contains all refereed papers that were accepted to the fourth edition of the « Complex Systems Design & Management » (CSD&M 2013) international conference which took place in Paris (France) from December 4-6, 2013. These proceedings cover the most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences & practices from an industrial and academic perspective, including the main industrial domains (transport, defense & security, electronics, energy & environment, e-services), scientific & technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture & engineering, systems metrics & quality, systemic tools) and system types (transportation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of systems, artificial ecosystems). The CSD&M 2013 conference is organized under the guidance of the CESAMES non-profit organization

  8. Proceedings of the fourth annual conference on fossil energy materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkins, R.R.; Braski, D.N. (comps.)

    1990-08-01

    The Fourth Annual Conference on Fossil Energy Materials was held in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on may 15--17, 1990. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy through the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Materials Program, and ASM International. The objective of the AR TD Materials Program is to conduct research and development on materials for longer-term fossil energy applications as well as for generic needs of various fossil fuel technologies. The work is divided into the following categories: (1) Ceramics, (2) New Alloys, (3) Corrosion and Erosion, and (4) Technology Assessment and Technology Transfer. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases.

  9. Natural gas imports and exports. Fourth quarter report, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-31

    The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports. This report is for the fourth quarter of 1998 (October through December). Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent reporting quarters. Attachment B shows volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months. Attachment C shows volume and price information pertaining to gas imported on a short-term or spot market basis. Attachment D shows the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.

  10. Black hole shadows in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Mureika, Jonas R

    2016-01-01

    We calculate the characteristics of the "black hole shadow" for a rotating, neutral black hole in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity. It is shown that the morphology is not significantly affected by the underlying framework, except for very large masses. Conformal gravity black hole shadows would also significantly differ from their general relativistic counterparts if the values of the main conformal gravity parameters, $\\gamma$ and $\\kappa$, were increased by several orders of magnitude. Such increased values for $\\gamma$ and $\\kappa$ are currently ruled out by gravitational phenomenology. Therefore, it is unlikely that these differences in black hole shadows will be detected in future observations, carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope or others such experiments.

  11. Cosmic Acceleration in a Model of Fourth Order Gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Banerjee, Shreya; Singh, Tejinder P

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a fourth order model of gravity, having a free length parameter, and no cosmological constant or dark energy. We consider cosmological evolution of a flat Friedmann universe in this model for the case that the length parameter is of the order of present Hubble radius. By making a suitable choice for the present value of the Hubble parameter, and value of third derivative of the scale factor (the jerk) we find that the model can explain cosmic acceleration to the same degree of accuracy as the standard concordance model. If the free length parameter is assumed to be time-dependent, and of the order of the Hubble parameter of the corresponding epoch, the model can still explain cosmic acceleration, and provides a possible resolution of the cosmic coincidence problem. We also compare redshift drift in this model, with that in the standard model.

  12. Recent advances on thrombosis and haemostasis in Asian Pacific region: report of the Fourth Asian Pacific Congress on Thrombosis and Haemostasis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhao-yue

    2006-01-01

    @@ The Fourth Asian Pacific Congress on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (APCTH) was held from September 21 to 23, 2006 in Suzhou, China and organized by the Asian Pacific Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis and the Chinese Society of Haematology with professor RUAN Chang-geng as the chairperson.

  13. Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Q.-B.

    2014-04-01

    In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850-1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that

  14. Environmental surveillance data report for the fourth quarter of 1987

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daniels, K.L.; Goldberg, P.Y.; Horwedel, B.M.; McCollough, I.L.; Osborne-Lee, A.E.; Valentine, C.K.; Vowell, J.D.

    1988-04-01

    During the fourth quarter of 1987, over 1700 samples which represent more than 5200 analyses and measurements were collected. More than ten real-time monitoring stations, which telemeter 10-minute averaged readings on radiation levels, total rainfall, flows, and water or air quality parameters around ORNL also reported data. In addition, three meteorological towers sent climatological data to a host computer every 15 minutes. Uranium concentrations on air filters located at stations near the Y-12 Plant (40, 45, and 46) were elevated above normal levels due to a release from the Y-12 Plant during October. Soil concentrations of /sup 234/U and /sup 238/U were significantly higher at the stations closest to the Y-12 Plant (40 and 45). /sup 235/U was significantly higher in soil at station 40 than at other stations. Cobalt/en dash/60 concentrations in Melton Branch water were significantly lower during this quarter than previous quarters because there was no discharge from the HFIR ponds. These ponds appear to be the source of most of the /sup 60/Co in Melton Branch. There were a total of 22 noncompliances associated with the NPDES permit during the fourth quarter of 1987. Fifteen of these were violations against a permit limit and the remainder were administrative failures in either collecting or analyzing required samples. Where appropriate, corrective actions or investigations are currently underway to address these noncompliances. Eight of the noncompliances were associated with high concentrations of total suspended solids at several of the Category I and II outfalls. Because no appreciable precipitation had occurred for over two weeks prior to the December sampling date, the samples taken would be expected to contain the first-flush of a 2 to 3 week accumulation of dust and other particulate matter from the areas drained by the outfalls.

  15. Changes in the Alpine environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Schoeneich

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available L’évolution de l’environnement alpin au XXIe siècle sera conditionnée par le changement climatique. Celui-ci pourrait conduire à des climats inconnus à ce jour dans les Alpes, avec comme conséquence une crise environnementale majeure et durable. Face à ces défis, les financements de recherche restent insuffisants pour la recherche appliquée aux milieux de montagne. Les financements nationaux privilégient souvent la recherche polaire au détriment des hautes altitudes, alors que les financements de type Interreg prennent insuffisamment en compte les besoins de recherche fondamentale, préalable nécessaire à l’élaboration de scénarios. Une évolution se dessine depuis deux ou trois ans vers des projets en réseau à l’échelle alpine. Le présent article fait le point sur les principaux enjeux qui attendent la recherche environnementale alpine et sur la capacité des programmes de recherche à répondre aux besoins. La première partie sur les changements climatiques est fondée sur les rapports récents : rapport de synthèse IPCC 2007 (IPCC 2007, rapport IPCC sur l’Europe (Alcamo et al. 2007, rapport de synthèse du programme ClimChAlp (Prudent-Richard et al., 2008. On y trouvera des bibliographies complètes et circonstanciées. La deuxième partie se base sur une analyse des appels d’offres récents ou en cours, et des projets soumis et financés.The way the Alpine environment will evolve in the 21st century depends upon climate change. This could lead to climates never before seen in the Alps, resulting in a major and lasting environmental crisis. In the face of these challenges, funding is still insufficient for specialised research on mountain environments. State funding often prioritises polar research at the expense of high altitude areas, whereas funding schemes from bodies such as Interreg do not sufficiently address the need for fundamental research, which is nevertheless a necessary first step prior to

  16. Opportunities and threats of the fourth industrial revolution and their reflection in the selection of innovative growth strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Illiashenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. Analysis and systematization of possible effects of the fourth industrial revolution both positive and negative, development of recommendations for innovative development strategies formation which would allow the use of opportunities for social and economic growth and will prevent treats. The results of the analysis. Based on a systematic analysis of the literature and practice of management allocated the positive and negative effects of the introduction of innovative technologies (both existing and forecasted, created in line with the fourth industrial revolution. The results of their systematization can be used as basis for the formation of an information base to determine the priorities of innovation. It is shown that distribution of the changes caused by the fourth industrial revolution and the completion of the fifth technological way and the transition to the sixth provide chances to individual institutions and national economies to move to outstripping innovative development. On the example of Ukraine and modern forms of work organization (freelance for the various sectors of activity it is shown that domestic experts have leading positions in global markets, they are successfully implementing the technology generated by the fourth industrial revolution. It demonstrates the significant potential of transition to the sixth technological way. The generalized scheme of formation of Ukrainian innovative development priority directions in line with the concept of technological advance is developed. It is shown that Ukraine has considerable potential for innovation growth which is relevant to the terms of the fourth industrial revolution. In particular, the 2015 world rankings in knowledge and innovation, it had high enough position: knowledge creation – 14; innovation effectiveness – 15; spending on education – 18; number of applications for patents – 19; number of graduates in science and technology – 20

  17. The fourth shift: exploring the gendered nature of sleep disruption among couples with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, Susan; Arber, Sara; Meadows, Robert; Hislop, Jenny

    2008-03-01

    The study of sleep has been neglected within sociology, yet may provide insights into fundamental aspects of the nature of gender inequalities. This article examines how, for couples with children, sleep is influenced by the gendered nature of caring. A key concern is not only who gets up to care for children's physical needs at night, but whether this changes with women's increased role in the labour market. Of concern also is how changes in the nature of caring for older children, as opposed to young children, may impact on parents' sleep. This article analyses qualitative data from an ESRC funded multi-disciplinary project on couples' sleep based on in-depth audio-tape recorded interviews with 26 couples (aged 20-59) with younger and older children. Additionally, one week's audio sleep diaries were completed and follow up in-depth interviews were undertaken with each partner on an individual basis. Physical and emotional care for young children at night was largely provided by women, with a lack of explicit negotiation between partners about who provides this care, even when women return to employment. Thus, considerably more women than men continued their daytime and evening shifts, as well as undertaking an ongoing third shift of sentient activity for their family, into the night. This resulted in a fourth night-time shift where physical caring, and sentient activities continued. As a consequence, women were more likely to subjugate their own sleep needs to those of their family. Fathers did not, in general, undertake this fourth night-time shift. Those that did were more likely to be the fathers of young adult children who were staying out late at night, with the focus of their concerns being the safety of their children.

  18. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

    2008-06-01

    Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately

  19. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  20. The fourth root of the Kogut-Susskind determinant via infinite component fields

    CERN Document Server

    Neuberger, H

    2004-01-01

    An example of interpolation by means of local field theories between the case of normal Kogut-Susskind fermions and the case of keeping just the fourth root of the Kogut-Susskind determinant is given. For the fourth root trick to be a valid approximation certain limits need to be smooth. The question about the validity of the fourth root trick is not resolved, only cast into a local field theoretical framework.

  1. The Fourth R: A School-Based Adolescent Dating Violence Prevention Program

    OpenAIRE

    David A. Wolfe; Claire V. Crooks; Raymond Hughes

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a school-based primary prevention program (The Fourth R) to prevent adolescent dating violence, and related risk behaviors. The cornerstone of The Fourth R is a 21-lesson skillbased curriculum delivered by teachers who receive specialized training, that promotes healthy relationships, and targets violence, high-risk sexual behavior, and substance use among adolescents. The Fourth R was evaluated in a cluster randomized trial in 20 schools. Results indicated that teaching y...

  2. A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    including changes in flowering phenology (Bradley et al. 1999), temperature regimes (Barber et al. 2000), and hydrologic cycles (IPCC 2007, Knapp et...average and variation of susceptibility metrics can be calculated to evaluate and compare regions of interest (Figure 1). ERDC/EL TN-14-1 May 2014...average susceptibility scores as well as the variation in the scores across the scenarios can give natural resource managers the ability to prioritize

  3. Emissions scenarios - special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakicenovic, N.; Swart, R.

    2000-07-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios describes new scenarios of the future, and predicts greenhouse gas emissions associated with such developments. The scenarios provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies. This volume is the most comprehensive and state-of-the-art assessment available of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and provides invaluable information for industry, policy-makers, environmental organizations, and researchers in global change, technology, engineering and economics. (author)

  4. [Study on the characters of phytoplankton chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra based on fourth-derivative].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Lu; Su, Rong-Guo; Wang, Xiu-Lin; Zhu, Chen-Jian

    2007-11-01

    Chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra of six phytoplankton species, belonging to Bacillariophyta and Dinophyta, were dealt by fourth-derivative analysis with the Matlab program. The results show that between 350 nm and 550 nm six fluorescence peaks were found in the fourth-derivative spectra, which are representatives of non-pigments, chlorophylls and carotenoides respectively. The method makes Bacillariophyta and Dinophyta more distinguishable when the fourth-derivative spectra are compared with the chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra. It can be used not only to discriminate the two groups of algaes, but also to reduce the effect of noise. The fluorescence peaks in the fourth-derivative spectra are proved to be stable.

  5. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

  6. Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatt, John F.; Gende, Scott M.

    2007-01-01

    Foreword Glacier Bay was established as a National Monument in 1925, in part to protect its unique character and natural beauty, but also to create a natural laboratory to examine evolution of the glacial landscape. Today, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve is still a place of profound natural beauty and dynamic landscapes. It also remains a focal point for scientific research and includes continuing observations begun decades ago of glacial processes and terrestrial ecosystems. In recent years, research has focused on glacial-marine interactions and ecosystem processes that occur below the surface of the bay. In October 2004, Glacier Bay National Park convened the fourth in a series of science symposiums to provide an opportunity for researchers, managers, interpreters, educators, students and the general public to share knowledge about Glacier Bay. The Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium was held in Juneau, Alaska, rather than at the Park, reflecting a desire to maximize attendance and communication among a growing and diverse number of stakeholders interested in science in the park. More than 400 people attended the symposium. Participants provided 46 oral presentations and 41 posters covering a wide array of disciplines including geology, glaciology, oceanography, wildlife and fisheries biology, terrestrial and marine ecology, socio-cultural research and management issues. A panel discussion focused on the importance of connectivity in Glacier Bay research, and keynote speakers (Gary Davis and Terry Chapin) spoke of long-term monitoring and ecological processes. These proceedings include 56 papers from the symposium. A summary of the Glacier Bay Science Plan-itself a subject of a meeting during the symposium and the result of ongoing discussions between scientists and resource managers-also is provided. We hope these proceedings illustrate the diversity of completed and ongoing scientific studies, conducted within the Park. To this end, we invited all

  7. Quark Annihilation and Lepton Formation versus Pair Production and Neutrino Oscillation: The Fourth Generation of Leptons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang T. X.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence or formation of leptons from particles composed of quarks is still remained very poorly understood. In this paper, we propose that leptons are formed by quark-antiquark annihilations. There are two types of quark-antiquark annihilations. Type-I quark-antiquark annihilation annihilates only color charges, which is an incomplete annihilation and forms structureless and colorless but electrically charged leptons such as electron, muon, and tau particles. Type-II quark-antiquark annihilation annihilates both electric and color charges, which is a complete annihilation and forms structureless, colorless, and electrically neutral leptons such as electron, muon, and tau neutrinos. Analyzing these two types of annihilations between up and down quarks and antiquarks with an excited quantum state for each of them, we predict the fourth generation of leptons named lambda particle and neutrino. On the contrary quark-antiquark annihilation, a lepton particle or neutrino, when it collides, can be disintegrated into a quark-antiquark pair. The disintegrated quark-antiquark pair, if it is excited and/or changed in flavor during the collision, will annihilate into another type of lepton particle or neutrino. This quark-antiquark annihilation and pair production scenario provides unique understanding for the formation of leptons, predicts the fourth generation of leptons, and explains the oscillation of neutrinos without hurting the standard model of particle physics. With this scenario, we can understand the recent OPERA measurement of a tau particle in a muon neutrino beam as well as the early measurements of muon particles in electron neutrino beams.

  8. Quark Annihilation and Lepton Formation versus Pair Production and Neutrino Oscillation: The Fourth Generation of Leptons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang T. X.

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence or formation of leptons from particles composed of quarks is still re- mained very poorly understood. In this paper, we propose that leptons are formed by quark-antiquark annihilations. There are two types of quark-antiquark annihilations. Type-I quark-antiquark annihilation annihilates only color charges, which is an incom- plete annihilation and forms structureless and colorless but electrically charged leptons such as electron, muon, and tau particles. Type-II quark-antiquark annihilation an- nihilates both electric and color charges, which is a complete annihilation and forms structureless, colorless, and electrically neutral leptons such as electron, muon, and tau neutrinos. Analyzing these two types of annihilations between up and down quarks and antiquarks with an excited quantum state for each of them, we predict the fourth gener- ation of leptons named lambda particle and neutrino. On the contrary quark-antiquark annihilation, a lepton particle or neutrino, when it collides, can be disintegrated into a quark-antiquark pair. The disintegrated quark-antiquark pair, if it is excited and / or changed in flavor during the collision, will annihilate into another type of lepton par- ticle or neutrino. This quark-antiquark annihilation and pair production scenario pro- vides unique understanding for the formation of leptons, predicts the fourth generation of leptons, and explains the oscillation of neutrinos without hurting the standard model of particle physics. With this scenario, we can understand the recent OPERA measure- ment of a tau particle in a muon neutrino beam as well as the early measurements of muon particles in electron neutrino beams.

  9. Hanford Seismic Annual Report and Fourth Quarter Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AC Rohay; DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel

    1999-12-07

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network. (EWRN) consist of 40 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. A major reconfiguration of the HSN was initiated at the end of this quarter and the results will be reported in the first quarter report for next fiscal year (FY2000). For the HSN, there were 390 triggers during the fourth quarter of fiscal year(FY) 1999 on the primary recording system. With the implementation of dual backup systems during the second quarter of the fiscal year and an overall increase observed in sensitivity, a total of 1632 triggers were examined, identified, and processed during this fiscal year. During the fourth quarter, 24 seismic events were located by the HSN within the reporting region of 46 degrees to 47 degrees north latitude and 119 degrees to 120 degrees west longitude 9 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 10 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement; and 2 were quarry blasts. One earthquake appears to be related to a major geologic structure, 14 earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 7 earthquakes were random occurrences.

  10. Direct detection of fourth generation Majorana neutrino dark matter

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Yu-Feng

    2012-01-01

    Heavy stable fourth generation Majorana neutrinos contribute to a small fraction of the relic density of dark matter (DM) in the Universe. Due to its relatively strong coupling to the standard model particles, it can be probed by the current direct and indirect DM detection experiments even it is a subdominant component of the halo DM. We show that the current Xenon100 data constrain the mass of the stable Majorana neutrino to be greater than the mass of the top quark. The effective spin-independent cross section for the neutrino elastic scattering off nucleon is predicted to be $\\sim 1.5\\times 10^{-44} cm^2$, which is insensitive to the neutrino mass and mixing and can be reached by the direct DM detection experiments in the near future. In the same mass region the predicted effective spin-dependent cross section for the heavy neutrino scattering off proton is in the range of $2\\times 10^{-40} cm^2\\sim 2\\times 10^{-39} cm^2$, which is within the reach of the ongoing DM indirect search experiments. We demonst...

  11. Fourth-order partial differential equations for noise removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Y L; Kaveh, M

    2000-01-01

    A class of fourth-order partial differential equations (PDEs) are proposed to optimize the trade-off between noise removal and edge preservation. The time evolution of these PDEs seeks to minimize a cost functional which is an increasing function of the absolute value of the Laplacian of the image intensity function. Since the Laplacian of an image at a pixel is zero if the image is planar in its neighborhood, these PDEs attempt to remove noise and preserve edges by approximating an observed image with a piecewise planar image. Piecewise planar images look more natural than step images which anisotropic diffusion (second order PDEs) uses to approximate an observed image. So the proposed PDEs are able to avoid the blocky effects widely seen in images processed by anisotropic diffusion, while achieving the degree of noise removal and edge preservation comparable to anisotropic diffusion. Although both approaches seem to be comparable in removing speckles in the observed images, speckles are more visible in images processed by the proposed PDEs, because piecewise planar images are less likely to mask speckles than step images and anisotropic diffusion tends to generate multiple false edges. Speckles can be easily removed by simple algorithms such as the one presented in this paper.

  12. CERN announces the fourth annual Beamline for Schools competition

    CERN Multimedia

    BL4S team

    2016-01-01

    CERN is pleased to announce the fourth annual Beamline for Schools (BL4S) competition. Once again, in 2017, a fully equipped beamline will be made available at CERN for students. As in previous years, two teams will be invited to the Laboratory to execute the experiments they proposed in their applications. The 2017 competition is being made possible thanks to support from the Alcoa Foundation for the second consecutive year.   The competition is open to teams of high-school students aged 16 or older who, if they win, are invited (with two supervisors) to CERN to carry out their experiment. Teams must have at least five students but there is no upper limit to a team’s size (although just nine students per winning team will be invited to CERN). Teams may be composed of pupils from a single school, or from a number of schools working together. As science-loving mega-celebrity Will.I.Am told us: “If you’re interested in science, technology, engineering or ...

  13. Robust Optimization of Fourth Party Logistics Network Design under Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth Party Logistics (4PL network faces disruptions of various sorts under the dynamic and complex environment. In order to explore the robustness of the network, the 4PL network design with consideration of random disruptions is studied. The purpose of the research is to construct a 4PL network that can provide satisfactory service to customers at a lower cost when disruptions strike. Based on the definition of β-robustness, a robust optimization model of 4PL network design under disruptions is established. Based on the NP-hard characteristic of the problem, the artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and the genetic algorithm (GA are developed. The effectiveness of the algorithms is tested and compared by simulation examples. By comparing the optimal solutions of the 4PL network for different robustness level, it is indicated that the robust optimization model can evade the market risks effectively and save the cost in the maximum limit when it is applied to 4PL network design.

  14. The fourth horizontal project in the mature Algyo Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pipicz, V.; Benedek, L.; Palasthy, G.; Barodi, T. [MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Co. (Hungary); Joshi, S.D. [Joshi Technologies International, Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2002-07-01

    Approximately seventy horizontal wells have been drilled in the course of three successful projects in the mature Algyo Field in Hungary since 1993. Recently, a fourth project has been initiated which includes the drilling of more than twenty new horizontal sections. These horizontal wells kick off existing abandoned wells along the thin oil rim that exists in two high permeability reservoirs with top gas and bottom water. The most significant difference between the two reservoirs is that one has water injection and the other has two layers with strong natural bottom water drive. The former geological and dynamic models for the hydrocarbon field in the Pannonian basin was rebuilt in order to handle the common aquifer of four reservoirs. Based on the new geology, reservoir simulation was used to study the reservoir behaviour, including the forthcoming period of gas cap production. The increase in reserves was matched with the production history to observe the movement of the water oil contact (WOC) with the production and drawdown rates in the future when the horizontal trajectories were planned. The reservoir management focused on maximising the long-term profit of the field by optimal production of the reserves, reducing gas and water coning and by the effective use of depleted gas reservoirs and existing vertical wells. Production rate and recovery was increased by reaching the by-passed hydrocarbon and by increasing the drainage area. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 14 figs.

  15. Summary of the Fourth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassberg, John C.; Tinoco, Edward N.; Mani, Mori; Rider, Ben; Zickuhr, Tom; Levy, David W.; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Eisfeld, Bernhard; Crippa, Simone; Wahls, Richard A.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Mavriplis, Dimitri J.; Murayama, Mitcuhiro

    2010-01-01

    Results from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW-IV) are summarized. The workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and differential drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal-tail configurations that are representative of transonic transport air- craft. Numerical calculations are performed using industry-relevant test cases that include lift- specific flight conditions, trimmed drag polars, downwash variations, dragrises and Reynolds- number effects. Drag, lift and pitching moment predictions from numerous Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics methods are presented. Solutions are performed on structured, unstructured and hybrid grid systems. The structured-grid sets include point- matched multi-block meshes and over-set grid systems. The unstructured and hybrid grid sets are comprised of tetrahedral, pyramid, prismatic, and hexahedral elements. Effort is made to provide a high-quality and parametrically consistent family of grids for each grid type about each configuration under study. The wing-body-horizontal families are comprised of a coarse, medium and fine grid; an optional extra-fine grid augments several of the grid families. These mesh sequences are utilized to determine asymptotic grid-convergence characteristics of the solution sets, and to estimate grid-converged absolute drag levels of the wing-body-horizontal configuration using Richardson extrapolation.

  16. The Fourth US Naval Observatory CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC4)

    CERN Document Server

    Zacharias, Norbert; Girard, Terry; Henden, Arne; Bartlett, Jennifer; Monet, Dave; Zacharias, Marion

    2012-01-01

    The fourth United States Naval Observatory (USNO) CCD Astrograph Catalog, UCAC4 was released in August 2012 (double-sided DVD and CDS data center Vizier catalog I/322). It is the final release in this series and contains over 113 million objects; over 105 million of them with proper motions. UCAC4 is an updated version of UCAC3 with about the same number of stars also covering all-sky. Bugs were fixed, Schmidt plate survey data were avoided, and precise 5-band photometry were added. Astrograph observations have been supplemented for bright stars by FK6, Hipparcos and Tycho-2 data to compile a UCAC4 star catalog complete to about magnitude R = 16. Epoch 1998 to 2004 positions are obtained from observations with the 20 cm aperture USNO Astrograph's red lens, equipped with a 4k by 4k CCD. Mean positions and proper motions are derived by combining these observations with over 140 ground- and space-based catalogs, including Hipparcos/Tycho and the AC2000.2, as well as unpublished measures of over 5000 plates from ...

  17. The fourth International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    This book comprises the papers accepted by the fourth International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing (ISCC), which was held from 18-19 December, 2015 in Guangzhou, China. It has 70 papers divided into four parts. The first part focuses on Information Theory with 20 papers; the second part emphasizes Machine Learning also containing 21 papers; in the third part, there are 21 papers as well in the area of Control Science; and the last part with 8 papers is dedicated to Cloud Science. Each part can be used as an excellent reference by engineers, researchers and students who need to build a knowledge base of the most current advances and state-of-practice in the topics covered by the ISCC conference. Special thanks go to Professor Deyu Qi, General Chair of ISCC 2015, for his leadership in supervising the organization of the entire conference; Professor Tinghuai Ma, Program Chair, and members of program committee for evaluating all the submissions and ensuring the selection of only the highest quality papers; and the authors for sharing their ideas, results and insights. We sincerely hope that you enjoy reading papers included in this book.

  18. Natural gas imports and exports; Fourth quarterly report, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-12-31

    The Office of Fuels Programs prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports with the OFP. This report is for the fourth quarter of 1993 (October--December). Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent reporting quarters. Attachment B shows volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months. Attachment C shows volume and price information for gas imported on a short-term basis. Attachment D shows the gas exported on a short-term basis to Canada and Mexico. During 1993, data indicates gas imports grew by about 10 percent over the 1992 level (2328 vs. 2122 Bcf), with Canadian and Algerian imports increasing by 8 and 82 percent, respectively. During the same time period, exports declined by 41 percent (144 vs. 243 Bcf). Exports to Canada decreased 47 percent from the 1992 level (50 vs. 95 Bcf) and exports to Mexico decreased by 60 percent (38 vs. 95 Bcf).

  19. Fourth Data Challenge for the ALICE data acquisition system

    CERN Multimedia

    Maximilien Brice

    2003-01-01

    The ALICE experiment will study quark-gluon plasma using beams of heavy ions, such as those of lead. The particles in the beams will collide thousands of times per second in the detector and each collision will generate an event containing thousands of charged particles. Every second, the characteristics of tens of thousands of particles will have to be recorded. Thus, to be effective, the data acquisition system (DAQ) must meet extremely strict performance criteria. To this end, the ALICE Data Challenges entail step-by-step testing of the DAQ with existing equipment that is sufficiently close to the final equipment to provide a reliable indication of performance. During the fourth challenge, in 2002, a data acquisition rate of 1800 megabytes per second was achieved by using some thirty parallel-linked PCs running the specially developed DATE software. During the final week of tests in December 2002, the team also tested the Storage Tek linear magnetic tape drives. Their bandwidth is 30 megabytes per second a...

  20. IPCC AR4中海气耦合模式对中国东部夏季降水及PDO、NAO年代际变化的模拟能力分析%Evaluation of the IPCC AR4 Climate Models in Simulating the Interdecadal Variations of the East China Summer Precipitation,PDO and NAO

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    顾薇; 李崇银

    2010-01-01

    利用1880-1999年中国东部35站的观测降水资料、英国Hadley中心的海温和海平面气压资料以及IPCC第4次评估报告(AR4)中20世纪气候模拟试验(20C3M)的模式输出结果,对IPCC AR4中22个耦合模式所模拟的我国东部夏季降水的年代际变化情况以及太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)的年代际变化情况进行了分析.结果显示,这些模式对20世纪我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的模拟结果并不理想,但对降水在20世纪70年代中期前后的突变具有一定的模拟能力.其中IAP_FGOALSL_0_G可以大致模拟出20世纪70年代中期前后降水型的突变特征,而BCCR_BCM2_0和UKMO_HadGEM1则可以模拟出华北地区降水在20世纪70年代中期之后减少的现象.对于引起我国东部夏季降水年代际变化的重要因子PDO和NAO,模式对它们年代际变化的模拟效果略好于降水.多数模式都可以模拟出PDO和NAO的空间模态,其中CNRM_CM3和UKMO_HadGEM1对PDO年代际变化(8 a以上)的模拟与实际情况比较相似,并可以模拟出20世纪70年代中期之后PDO由负位相转变为正位相的情况,而模式UKMO_HadGEM1也对NAO的年代际变化以及1980年以来不断加强的趋势模拟较好.

  1. A quarta revolução educacional: a mudança de tempos, espaços e relações na escola a partir do uso de tecnologias e da inclusão social / The fourth educational revolution: changes of time, space and relations in school based...

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulisses F. Araújo

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo discute os movimentos de evolução da educação nos últimos séculos, buscando demonstrar como movimentos de democratização e universalização do acesso ao ensino promoveram a inclusão de todas as pessoas nos processos educativos. A escola, tal como a conhecemos, estruturada nos séculos XVIII e XIX sob princípios de exclusão e homogeneização, não parece estar dando conta das demandas de uma educação inclusiva, o que vem impactando as metas de qualidade do conhecimento almejadas pelas sociedades contemporâneas. Esse impasse vem demandando uma reinvenção da educação, que envolve transformações nos conteúdos, na forma e nas relações entre docentes e discentes dentro dos espaços educativos. Como exemplo de caminhos a serem seguidos para reinventar a educação, apresenta-se a estrutura de um curso de especialização que articula metodologias ativas de aprendizagem com novas e diversas Tecnologias de Informação e Comunicação e a preocupação com a ética pessoal e profissional.AbstractThis article discusses the evolution of education in recent centuries, trying to demonstrate how movements of democratization and universal access to education promoted the inclusion of all people in the educational processes. The school, as we know, structured in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries on principles of exclusion and homogenization, there seems not to be catching on the demands of an inclusive education, which has been impacting the quality goals of knowledge desired by contemporary societies. This impasse has been demanding a re-invention of education, which involves changes in the content, form and relationships between teachers and students within the educational spaces. As an example of paths to be followed to re-invent education, is presented the structure of a specialization course which combines active learning methodologies with new and diverse Information Technology and Communication tools, and the

  2. PPN-limit of Fourth Order Gravity inspired by Scalar-Tensor Gravity

    OpenAIRE

    Capozziello, S.; Troisi, A.

    2005-01-01

    Based on the {\\it dynamical} equivalence between higher order gravity and scalar-tensor gravity the PPN-limit of fourth order gravity is discussed. We exploit this analogy developing a fourth order gravity version of the Eddington PPN-parameters. As a result, Solar System experiments can be reconciled with higher order gravity, if physical constraints descending from experiments are fulfilled.

  3. Technology Integration in Third, Fourth and Fifth Grade Classrooms in a Florida School District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, Tiffani; Gaines, Trudi

    2015-01-01

    Third, fourth and fifth grade teachers have the potential to shape the way their students will begin to view and use technology. This study investigated the nature of technology usage among third, fourth and fifth grade teachers in a Florida school district as well as the relationship between the level of technology usage factors such as available…

  4. 78 FR 29022 - Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-17

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA... enforce the safety zone for the Berkeley Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display in the Captain of the... Berkeley Pier in approximate position 37 51'40'' N, 122 19'19'' W (NAD 83) from 9:30 p.m. until 10:15...

  5. 20 CFR 655.734 - What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding notice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding... Specialty Occupations § 655.734 What is the fourth LCA requirement, regarding notice? An employer seeking to... before the date the LCA is filed with ETA, provide a notice of the filing of the LCA. The notice...

  6. 77 FR 27057 - Request for Nominations of Drinking Water Contaminants for the Fourth Contaminant Candidate List

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-08

    ... AGENCY Request for Nominations of Drinking Water Contaminants for the Fourth Contaminant Candidate List... contaminants for possible inclusion in the fourth drinking water Contaminant Candidate List (CCL 4). EPA is... information contact the EPA Safe Drinking Water Hotline at (800) 426-4791 or email: hotline-sdwa@epa.gov ....

  7. The contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijbooms, E.; Groen, M.A.; Verhoeven, L.T.W.

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children, and evaluated to what extent executive functions contribute differentially to different levels of narrative composition. The written skills of 102 Dutch children in fourth grade were

  8. The Contribution of Executive Functions to Narrative Writing in Fourth Grade Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijbooms, Elise; Groen, Margriet A.; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children, and evaluated to what extent executive functions contribute differentially to different levels of narrative composition. The written skills of 102 Dutch children in fourth grade were assessed using a narrative picture-elicitation…

  9. A Note on Four-Dimensional Symmetry Algebras and Fourth-Order Ordinary Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fatima

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide a supplementation of the results on the canonical forms for scalar fourth-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs which admit four-dimensional Lie algebras obtained recently. Together with these new canonical forms, a complete list of scalar fourth-order ODEs that admit four-dimensional Lie algebras is available.

  10. ON THE INSTABILITY OF SOLUTIONS TO A NONLINEAR VECTOR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION OF FOURTH ORDER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new result related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear vector differential equation of fourth order.Our result includes and improves an instability result in the previous literature,which is related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear scalar differential equation of fourth order.

  11. Acid deposition in the United Kingdom 1992-1994. Fourth report of the Review Group on Acid Rain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-06-01

    The fourth report in the series examines the nature and extent of acid deposition throughout the United Kingdom. Topics are covered under the following headings: emissions of air pollutants leading to acidification, atmospheric transport and chemical conversion of acidifying air pollutants; wet deposition; concentrations of gases and particles; dry deposition processes, spatial patterns and recent trends; cloud droplet interception; total deposition; modelling of acid deposition in the United Kingdom; changes in concentrations and deposition of acidifying pollutants over the United Kingdom; and conclusions and recommendations. While emissions of SO{sub 2} are falling, emissions of nitrogen oxides have remained fairly constant since 1970. 240 refs., 128 figs., 34 tabs., 5 apps.

  12. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin;

    2013-01-01

    be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts......We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...

  13. A guide to the evaluation of fourth cranial nerve palsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee; Hayman; Beaver; Prager; Kelder; Scasta; Avilla; von Noorden GK; Tang

    1998-12-01

    PURPOSE To devise a cost-effective guide for the evaluation of fourth nerve palsies (FNP). METHODS A review of the pertinent English language literature was performed to devise a guide for the evaluation (including neuroimaging) of FNP. The authors report a retrospective review of imaging studies performed on 206 patients with FNP. RESULTS The literature was used to develop the imaging guide. In the retrospective chart review of 206 patients from two tertiary care centers, 28 patients (13.6%) underwent a computed tomography scan and/or a magnetic resonance scan. Of these patients, five had associated neurological symptoms (non-isolated), one was traumatic, five were congenital, four were vasculopathic, eleven were non-vasculopathic, and two were progressive. Following the recommendations of the imaging guide, the five isolated congenital FNP and the four isolated vasculopathic FNP would not have undergone neuroimaging studies. The total costs of these neuroimaging studies in these nine patients were 19,000 dollars. Four patients in the retrospective review with associated neurological deficits (non-isolated) should have undergone neuroimaging according to the guide, but did not. CONCLUSIONS Although the evaluation of FNP can be difficult, the decision to order neuroimaging can be improved by using an imaging guide. An imaging guide for the evaluation of FNP may allow more appropriate and cost-effective imaging of these patients. Isolated congenital, old traumatic, or vasculopathic FNP do not require neuroimaging studies. Patients with non-isolated FNP should have directed neuroimaging studies based upon the results of clinical examination.

  14. Older people and digital disengagement: a fourth digital divide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olphert, Wendy; Damodaran, Leela

    2013-01-01

    Digital technologies are becoming more pervasive in all areas of society. Enabling everyone to have access and capability to use the Internet and associated digital technologies, summed up in the term 'digital inclusion', is seen to have wide-ranging benefits to the individual, to the economy and to society. For older people, being digitally included can help them to maintain their independence, social connectedness and sense of worth in the face of declining health or limited capabilities, as well as also offering new opportunities to improve their quality of life. At present however, access to the technology and to the benefits is not equally distributed either between or within nations, and older people tend to be on the 'wrong' side of what is termed the 'digital divide'. Governments globally are developing strategies to promote digital inclusion and indeed Internet uptake is increasing steadily, including amongst older people. However, such strategies have focussed on getting people online, and there appears to be an assumption that once someone is online they will remain 'digitally engaged'. In fact statistics show that some users give up using the Internet, and there is emerging evidence that older people are more vulnerable to the factors which can lead to this outcome. The authors see this phenomenon as a potential but largely unrecognised 'fourth digital divide' which has serious implications for social inclusion. The objectives of this article are (a) to raise awareness of the phenomenon of digital disengagement by considering some of the emerging evidence, (b) to explore some of the potential implications of not recognising and therefore not addressing the needs of the digitally disengaged older population, and (c) to reveal the prevailing gap in knowledge which future research should address.

  15. The UK fuel poverty strategy: Fourth annual progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-06-02

    This is the fourth annual progress report on the UK Fuel Poverty Strategy. It presents positive news over figures and funding, growing evidence of increased engagement in tackling fuel poverty and a snapshot of the UK-wide situation. All of this appears alongside a realistic assessment of the impact of energy price rises and the outlook for the future, both in the medium and long-term. The report provides an update on the actions taken over the last twelve months. The report offers the first opportunity to look at the new phase of the Warm Front Scheme in England, and to explore what the additional funding will mean for the future. Progress and developments in the Schemes across the devolved nations are also considered. The fuel poverty figures for 2004 are presented. The number of vulnerable households in fuel poverty in England in 2004 remained at 1.0 million. This figure is down from four million in 1996.The overall number of households in fuel poverty in England also remained at a similar level of 1.2 million. The UK-wide figures remained broadly the same, with two million households in fuel poverty overall and one and a half million of those in the vulnerable category. The results of detailed modelling work to determine what the implications of recent energy price rises will be for the 2010 target in England are given. Finally, this report is accompanied by a series of internet-based annexes which provide more detail on the progress made in tackling fuel poverty by both Government and industry. These include more in-depth statistics on the demographic, geographic and socio-economic breakdowns of fuel poverty and a broader outline of the actions taken in this area by energy suppliers across the UK. (UK)

  16. Rational pharmacotherapy training for fourth-year medical students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayse Gelal

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: In this study we aimed to evaluate the impact of Rational Pharmacotherapy (RPT course program, reinforced by video footages, on the rational pharmacotherapy skills of the students. Materials and Methods: RPT course program has been conducted in Dokuz Eylul University School of Medicine since 2008/9. The course has been organised in accordance with World Health Organisation (WHO Good Prescribing Guide. The aim of the course was to improve the problem solving skills (methodology for selection of the (personel-drug, prescription writing and informing patient about his illness and drugs and communication skills of students. The impact of the course has been measured by pre/post-test design by an objective structured clinical examination (OSCE. In academic year 2010/11, to further improve OSCE score of the students we added doctor-patient communication video footages to the RPT course programme. During training, the students were asked to evaluate the doctor-patient communication and prescription on two video footages using a checklist followed by group discussions. Results: Total post-test OSCE score was significantly higher for 2010/11 academic year students (n = 147 than it was for 2009/10 year students (n = 131. The 2010/11 academic year students performed significantly better than the 2009/10 academic year students on four steps of OSCE. These steps were "defining the patient′s problem," "specifying the therapeutic objective," "specifying the non-pharmacological treatment" and "choosing a (drug treatment, taking all relevant patient characteristics into account". Conclusions: The present study demonstrated that the implementation of video footages and group discussions to WHO/Good Prescribing Method improved the fourth-year medical students′ performance in rational pharmacotherapy skills.

  17. On the fourth Diadema species (Diadema-sp from Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seinen Chow

    Full Text Available Four long-spined sea urchin species in the genus Diadema are known to occur around the Japanese Archipelago. Three species (D. savignyi, D. setosum, and D. paucispinum are widely distributed in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The fourth species was detected by DNA analysis among samples originally collected as D. savignyi or D. setosum in Japan and the Marshall Islands and tentatively designated as Diadema-sp, remaining an undescribed species. We analyzed nucleotide sequences of the cytochrome oxidase I (COI gene in the "D. savignyi-like" samples, and found all 17 individuals collected in the mainland of Japan (Sagami Bay and Kyushu to be Diadema-sp, but all nine in the Ryukyu Archipelago (Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands to be D. savignyi, with large nucleotide sequence difference between them (11.0%±1.7 SE. Diadema-sp and D. savignyi shared Y-shaped blue lines of iridophores along the interambulacrals, but individuals of Diadema-sp typically exhibited a conspicuous white streak at the fork of the Y-shaped blue iridophore lines, while this feature was absent in D. savignyi. Also, the central axis of the Y-shaped blue lines of iridophores was approximately twice as long as the V-component in D. savignyi whereas it was of similar length in Diadema-sp. Two parallel lines were observed to constitute the central axis of the Y-shaped blue lines in both species, but these were considerably narrower in Diadema-sp. Despite marked morphological and genetic differences, it appears that Diadema-sp has been mis-identified as D. savignyi for more than half a century.

  18. Preface to the first monograph: The Fourth Psychiatric Revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajai R. Singh

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available At present, psychiatry is in the midst of a fourth revolution. The first revolution was the so-called Moral Treatment which involved the activism of Phileppe Pinel (1745-1826 and William Tuke (1732-1819, as also the efforts of Dorothea Dix (1802-1887. This resulted in destigmatization of the lunatic label which had earlier meant treating the insane in a dehumanizing manner e.g.. chaining them to walls, displaying them for money etc. It resulted in the transition to custodial care and the opening of mental hospitals. The second psychiatric revolution was the Mental Hygiene Movement heralded by the eye­opening works of Elizabeth Packard (Modern Persecution or Insane Hospital Unveiled and Clifford Beers (1876-1943; A Mind That Found Itself which was furthered by, amongst others, pioneers like Adolf Meyer (1866-1950 and William James (1842-1910. This was followed by the third Psychiatric revolution, that of the Community Psychiatry Movement. This involved community participation, removal of restrictions, comprehensive set of services multi-disciplinary in nature, active consumer participation, mental health consultancy and preventive measures. This well intentioned grand movement had its problems, as all such grand movement must indeed have. It became the fountain­source of a fresh crop of difficulties related to transinstitutionalization in boarding and halfway houses, with increased rates of hospital admission, and the 'revolving door syndrome'. Moreover, it lead to an ominous rise in contact between the criminal justice system and the mentally ill as they moved more freely in the community.Today, we are in the midst of a silent by strong fourth revolution. Firstly, this revolution reiterates its strong linkage with the mainstream of medicine. Secondly, it bases itself on strong, empirical findings based on rigorous methodological studies, mainly biological. The major paradigm shift of contemporary psychiatry is towards methodological rigour on

  19. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  20. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Cook

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4 and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May–September reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1 a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2 a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10–15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry

  1. Introduction to the symposium theme : climate change in fragmented landscapes: can we develop spatial adaptation strategies?

    OpenAIRE

    Verboom, J.; Vos, C.C.

    2007-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses, man has a discernible influence on climate, and this is expected to be a long-term phenomenon affecting the environment in the forthcoming decades or even centuries. Since climate is a key driving force for ecological processes, climate change is likely to exert considerable impact on ecosystems. Since nature policy worldwide is often based upon policy plans which do not ...

  2. Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

    OpenAIRE

    Davies-Barnard, T.; P. J. Valdes; Singarayer, J. S.; Pacifico, F. M.; Jones, C. D.

    2014-01-01

    Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the n...

  3. Coastal adaptation to climate change: A case study in Durban, South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Geldenhuys, M.A.; Jonkman, S.N.; Mather, A.A.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ledden, M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent research done the IPCC (2007) working groups and other organizations has sparked global concern over the possible impacts of climate change and corresponding sea level rise (SLR) upon coastal communities. In reaction studies were done (for example by Nicholls et al., 2008) to assess the vulnerability of coastal regions and get an indication of the magnitude of the potential global impacts. However, most of these studies did not address the development of climate change adaptation desig...

  4. First and Fourth-Year Student’s Perceptions about Importance of Nursing Care Behaviors: Socialization toward Caring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Zamanzadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The essence of professional nursing is caring and so, nursing education must make caring as a significant part of their curricula. In this regard, little research exists about how nursing students perceive caring. The aim of this study is to investigate the nursing students' perception toward caring and thus, the impact of socialization process on their perception of caring will be determined. Methods: A cross-sectional study was done among all first and fourth-year nursing students (n=230 in Tabriz and Urmia faculties of nursing, 2012. Data were collected using Larson’s Caring Questionnaire that assessed the importance of nursing care behaviors (n=50 in six dimensions: "being accessible", "explains and facilitates", "comforts", "anticipates", "trusting relationship" and "monitors and follows through". Results: The importance of caring behaviors was evaluated by the first and fourth-year nursing students in moderate to high level and also, the both groups considered higher ranks for "monitors and follows through" and "being accessible" and lower ranks for "anticipates" and "trusting relationships". The fourth-year students only ranked "explains and facilitates" higher than the first-year students, but the "comforts" dimension is not differed significantly between groups.Conclusion: The findings demonstrated that nursing education in this study has not likely succeeded in producing intended changes in the nursing students' perceptions. It is recommended to exactly find the perceptual changes or in principle the professional socialization process of nursing students, more research using longitudinal designs be conducted to examine the differences in students' perceptions of caring upon entering and completing the nursing program.

  5. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica

    OpenAIRE

    María Baca; Peter Läderach; Jeremy Haggar; Götz Schroth; Oriana Ovalle

    2014-01-01

    The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic ...

  6. The Creation of the Fourth Planet: Beginning Therapists and Supervisors Inducing Change in Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andolfi, Maurizio; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Contends that beginning therapists are not prepared to deal with complexity that families bring to therapeutic setting and have reductionistic approach to understanding what is occurring in family. Explores development of "therapeutic story" with goal of assisting beginning therapist in approaches that can be used to incorporate all…

  7. Stability change of Fourth-Order Resonance with application to Multi-Turn Extraction Schemes

    CERN Document Server

    Giovannozzi, M; Turchetti, G

    2008-01-01

    Recently, a novel multi-turn extraction scheme was proposed, based on particle trapping inside stable resonances. Numerical simulations and experimental tests conirmed the feasibility of such a scheme for low order resonances. While the 3rd order resonance is generically unstable and those higher than 4th order are generically stable, the 4th order resonance can be either stable or unstable depending on the details of the system under consideration. By means of the normal form approach a general formula to control the stability of the 4th order resonance is derived. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results and show that by crossing the unstable 4th order resonance the region around the centre of phase space is depleted and particles are trapped only in the four stable islands. This indicates that a four-turn extraction could be envisaged based on this technique.

  8. Seismological analysis of the fourth North Korean nuclear test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Ceranna, Lars

    2016-04-01

    The Democratic People's Republic of Korea has conducted its fourth underground nuclear explosions on 06.01.2016 at 01:30 (UTC). The explosion was clearly detected and located by the seismic network of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Additional seismic stations of international earthquake monitoring networks at regional distances, which are not part of the IMS, are used to precisely estimate the epicenter of the event in the North Hamgyong province (41.38°N / 129.05°E). It is located in the area of the North Korean Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where the verified nuclear tests from 2006, 2009, and 2013 were conducted as well. The analysis of the recorded seismic signals provides the evidence, that the event was originated by an explosive source. The amplitudes as well as the spectral characteristics of the signals were examined. Furthermore, the similarity of the signals with those from the three former nuclear tests suggests very similar source type. The seismograms at the 8,200 km distant IMS station GERES in Germany, for example, show the same P phase signal for all four explosions, differing in the amplitude only. The comparison of the measured amplitudes results in the increasing magnitude with the chronology of the explosions from 2006 (mb 4.2), 2009 (mb 4.8) until 2013 (mb 5.1), whereas the explosion in 2016 had approximately the same magnitude as that one three years before. Derived from the magnitude, a yield of 14 kt TNT equivalents was estimated for both explosions in 2013 and 2016; in 2006 and 2009 yields were 0.7 kt and 5.4 kt, respectively. However, a large inherent uncertainty for these values has to be taken into account. The estimation of the absolute yield of the explosions depends very much on the local geological situation and the degree of decoupling of the explosive from the surrounding rock. Due to the missing corresponding information, reliable magnitude-yield estimation for the

  9. Fourth-order master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator interacting with the electromagnetic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul

    2015-12-01

    The master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator coupled to an electromagnetic reservoir is investigated up to fourth order in the interaction strength by using Krylov averaging method. The interaction is in the velocity-coupling form and includes a diamagnetic term. Exact analytical expressions for the second-, the third-, and the fourth-order contributions to mass renormalization, decay constant, normal and anomalous diffusion coefficients are obtained for the blackbody type environment. It is found that, generally, the third- and the fourth-order contributions have opposite signs when their magnitudes are comparable to that of the second-order one.

  10. Sums of Fourth Powers of Polynomials over a~Finite Field of Characteristic 3

    OpenAIRE

    Car, Mireille

    2008-01-01

    Let $F$ be a finite field with $q$ elements and characteristic $3.$ A sum $$M = M_{1}^4+\\ldots+ M_{s}^4$$ of fourth powers of polynomials $M_1,\\dots, M_{s}$ is a strict one if $ 4\\deg M_i 81$ is congruent to $1$ (mod. $4$), then $P$ is the strict sum of $9$ fourth powers; if $q=81$ or if $q>3$ is congruent to $3$ (mod $4$), then $P$ is the strict sum of $10$ fourth powers. If $q=3,...

  11. The Fourth R: A School-Based Adolescent Dating Violence Prevention Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Wolfe

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a school-based primary prevention program (The Fourth R to prevent adolescent dating violence, and related risk behaviors. The cornerstone of The Fourth R is a 21-lesson skillbased curriculum delivered by teachers who receive specialized training, that promotes healthy relationships, and targets violence, high-risk sexual behavior, and substance use among adolescents. The Fourth R was evaluated in a cluster randomized trial in 20 schools. Results indicated that teaching youth healthy relationships and skills as part of their curriculum reduced physical dating violence, and increased condom use 2.5 years later.

  12. STABLE FOURTH-ORDER STREAM-FUNCTION METHODS FOR INCOMPRESSIBLE FLOWS WITH BOUNDARIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thomas Y. Hou; Brian R. Wetton

    2009-01-01

    Fourth-order stream-function methods are proposed for the time dependent, incom-pressible Navier-Stokes and Bonssinesq equations. Wide difference stencils are used instead of compact ones and the boundary terms are handled by extrapolating the stream-function values inside the computational domain to grid points outside, up to fourth-order in the no-slip condition. Formal error analysis is done for a simple model problem, showing that this extrapolation introduces numerical boundary layers at fifth-order in the stream-function. The fourth-order convergence in velocity of the proposed method for the full problem is shown numerically.

  13. Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project quarterly environmental data summary (QEDS) for fourth quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-01

    This report contains the Quarterly Environmental Data Summary (QEDS) for the fourth quarter of 1998 in support of the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project Federal Facilities Agreement. The data, except for air monitoring data and site KPA generated data (uranium analyses) were received from the contract laboratories, verified by the Weldon Spring Site verification group, and merged into the database during the fourth quarter of 1998. KPA results for on-site total uranium analyses performed during fourth quarter 1998 are included. Air monitoring data presented are the most recent complete sets of quarterly data.

  14. Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

    2012-12-01

    The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010

  15. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  16. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud

    Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... IPCC climate change scenarios, which also consider possible changes in urban population, have been developed. Innovative strategies to land use and spatial planning are proposed that seek synergies between the adaptation to climate change and the need to solve social problems. Furthermore, the book...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  17. CNA’s Integrated Ship Database, Fourth Quarter 2011 Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    intentionally left blank.2 Changes in this update In the Excel file Change to Excel 2010 With this update, we’ve moved from Microsoft Excel 2003 to Excel 2010... Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications window by clicking on the Visual Basic button on the Developer Tab or by using the keyboard shortcut : Alt...10 is a view of the Archive page. Under the 2011 updates, you can see two links for the December 2011 files: one for the Microsoft Excel Macro

  18. 76 FR 58520 - Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Cancer Risk in U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Fourth Survey...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    .... Radiologic Technologists: Fourth Survey (NCI) SUMMARY: In compliance with the requirement of Section 3506(c... review and approval. Proposed Collection: Title: Cancer Risk in U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Fourth... a fourth cohort follow-up survey in an ongoing cohort study of U.S. Radiologic Technologists...

  19. 76 FR 72956 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Cancer Risk in U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Fourth...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-28

    ... U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Fourth Survey (NCI) Summary: Under the provisions of section 3507(a... control number. Proposed Collection: Title: Cancer Risk in U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Fourth Survey... a fourth cohort follow-up survey in an ongoing cohort study of U.S. Radiologic Technologists...

  20. An 'agenda for change': Quantifying climate change impacts on natural resource-based economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacGregor, James; Reid, Hannah; Sahlen, Linda

    2006-10-15

    For climate change adaptation to be beneficial to developing countries, it must begin quickly and this will require domestic political will. The third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made clear that even if the Kyoto Protocol is fully implemented, inertia in climatic systems means that some level of climate change is unavoidable. The countries most vulnerable to CC include many developing nations; while those better-able to adapt and less willing to mitigate are those most guilty of past pollution, including many developed nations.

  1. Higgs Properties in the Fourth Generation MSSM: Boosted Signals Over the 3G Plan

    CERN Document Server

    Cotta, R C; Ismail, A; Le, M -P; Rizzo, T G

    2011-01-01

    The generalization of the MSSM to the case of four chiral fermion generations (4GMSSM) can lead to significant changes in the phenomenology of the otherwise familiar Higgs sector. In most of the 3GMSSM parameter space, the lighter CP-even $h$ is $\\sim 115-125$ GeV and mostly Standard Model-like while $H,A,H^\\pm$ are all relatively heavy. Furthermore, the ratio of Higgs vevs, $\\tan \\beta$, is relatively unconstrained. In contrast to this, in the 4GMSSM, heavy fourth generation fermion loops drive the masses of $h,H,H^\\pm$ to large values while the CP-odd boson, $A$, can remain relatively light and $\\tan \\beta$ is restricted to the range $1/2 \\lsim \\tan \\beta \\lsim 2$ due to perturbativity requirements on Yukawa couplings. We explore this scenario in some detail, concentrating on the collider signatures of the light CP-odd Higgs at both the Tevatron and LHC. We find that while $gg \\to A$ may lead to a potential signal in the $\\tau^+\\tau^-$ channel at the LHC, $A$ may first be observed in the $\\gamma \\gamma$ cha...

  2. Fourth Annual Nursing Leadership Congress: "Driving Patient Safety Through Transformation" Conference proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinakiewicz, Diane; Smetzer, Judy; Thompson, Pamela; Navarra, Mary Beth; Lambert, Monique

    2009-06-01

    In September 2008, nurse executives from around the country met in Scottsdale, Ariz, to develop practical tools and recommendations for "Driving Patient Safety Through Transformation," the theme of the fourth annual Nursing Leadership Congress. The Congress was made possible through an educational grant from McKesson and Intel in collaboration with sponsorship from the American Organization of Nurse Executives, Institute for Safe Medication Practices and National Patient Safety Foundation. This paper summarizes the Congress plenary sessions and roundtable discussions. Plenaries included the following: *Transformational Leadership: The Role of Leaders in Managing Complex Problems *Using the Baldrige Business Model as the Infrastructure for Creating a Culture of Patient Safety *Prospects for Structural Reform in Health Care Roundtables included the following: *Joy and Meaning in Work *Managing Chronic Care Across the Continuum *The Future of Acute Care Delivery in Light of Changing Reimbursement* Leveraging Transparency to Drive Patient Safety *Collaborative Partnerships for Driving a Patient Safety Agenda *Innovative Solutions for Patient Safety *Implementing the Fundamentals of the Toyota Production Model forHealthcare

  3. Algorithms for density and composition-discrimination imaging for fourth-generation CT systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busono, P; Hussein, E M

    1999-06-01

    This paper shows that if the off-beam idle detectors in the detection ring of a fourth-generation x-ray computed tomography (CT) system are used to measure the scattered radiation, it is numerically feasible to reconstruct electron-density images to supplement the conventional attenuation-coefficient images of transmitted radiation. It is also shown that by combining these two images, composition changes can be detected with the aid of an effective-atomic-number indicator. The required image-reconstruction algorithms are developed and tested against Monte Carlo simulated measurements, for a variety of phantom configurations. In spite of the relatively poor statistical quality of scattering measurements, it is demonstrated that electron-density images of reasonable quality can be obtained. In addition, it is shown that composition discrimination is possible for materials of effective atomic number greater than five, in the photon energy range of a typical medical x-ray CT system operating at 102 kVp. The obtained supplementary electron-density and composition images can be useful in radiotherapy planning and for studying tumour histology, as well as in industrial and security applications where identification of materials based on density and composition is important.

  4. 一类四阶边值问题的正解%POSITIVE SOLUTIONS OF A FOURTH ORDER BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    任立顺

    2003-01-01

    The existence of positive solutions of the nonlinear fourth order problem u(4)(x) = λa(x)f(u(x)),u(0) = u'(0) = u'(1) = u"'(1) = 0 is studied, where a:[0,1]→R may change sign, f(0)>0,λ>0 is sufficiently smallOurapproach is based on the Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem.

  5. Foraging behaviour at the fourth tropic level: a comparative study of host location in aphid hyperparasitoids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, R.; Vet, L.E.M.; Boivin, G.; Brodeur, J.

    2005-01-01

    In studies of foraging behaviour in a multitrophic context, the fourth trophic level has generally been ignored. We used four aphid hyperparasitoid species: Dendrocerus carpenteri (Curtis) (Hymenoptera: Megaspilidae), Asaphes suspensus Walker (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae), Alloxysta victrix (Westwood)

  6. Fourth-order master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator interacting with the electromagnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul, E-mail: resul@ibu.edu.tr

    2015-12-18

    The master equation for a charged harmonic oscillator coupled to an electromagnetic reservoir is investigated up to fourth order in the interaction strength by using Krylov averaging method. The interaction is in the velocity-coupling form and includes a diamagnetic term. Exact analytical expressions for the second-, the third-, and the fourth-order contributions to mass renormalization, decay constant, normal and anomalous diffusion coefficients are obtained for the blackbody type environment. It is found that, generally, the third- and the fourth-order contributions have opposite signs when their magnitudes are comparable to that of the second-order one. - Highlights: • Exact analytical expressions for up to the fourth-order master equation are obtained. • High and low temperature limits of anomalous diffusion coefficients are elucidated. • Convergence range of the oscillator and the bath parameters discussed.

  7. Mixed Waste Management Facility Groundwater Monitoring Report, Fourth Quarter 1998 and 1998 Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chase, J.

    1999-04-29

    During fourth quarter 1998, ten constituents exceeded final Primary Drinking Water Standards (PDWS) in groundwater samples from downgradient monitoring wells at the Mixed Waste Management Facility. No constituents exceeded final PDWS in samples from the upgradient monitoring wells.

  8. 78 FR 20168 - Twenty Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 203, Unmanned Aircraft Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-03

    ... Federal Aviation Administration Twenty Fourth Meeting: RTCA Special Committee 203, Unmanned Aircraft Systems AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). ACTION.../Approval of Twenty Third Plenary Meeting Summary Leadership Update Workgroup Progress...

  9. Time-Periodic Solution of a 2D Fourth-Order Nonlinear Parabolic Equation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Xiaopeng Zhao; Changchun Liu

    2014-08-01

    By using the Galerkin method, we study the existence and uniqueness of time-periodic generalized solutions and time-periodic classical solutions to a fourth-order nonlinear parabolic equation in 2D case.

  10. 75 FR 33824 - Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates, Fourth Review: Advice Concerning the Addition...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-15

    ... COMMISSION Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates, Fourth Review: Advice Concerning the Addition of Certain Products to the Pharmaceutical Appendix to the HTS AGENCY: United States International... (Commission) instituted investigation No. 332-520, Pharmaceutical Products and Chemical Intermediates,...

  11. Fourth NASA Workshop on Computational Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems, part 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr. (Compiler)

    1991-01-01

    A collection of papers presented at the Fourth NASA Workshop on Computational Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems is given. The papers address modeling, systems identification, and control of flexible aircraft, spacecraft and robotic systems.

  12. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    We show that fourth-quarter macroeconomic growth rates strongly predict the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas growth rates during the other quarters do...... not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...

  13. The Savannah River Site Groundwater Monitoring Program Fourth Quarter 2000 (October thru December 2000)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dukes, M.D.

    2001-08-02

    This report summarizes the Groundwater Monitoring Program conducted by SRS during fourth quarter 2000. It includes the analytical data, field data, data review, quality control, and other documentation for this program.

  14. Fourth Conference on China-ASEAN People-to-People Friendship Organizations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    <正>The Fourth Conference on China-ASEAN Friendship Organizations was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from July 16 to 17. Gu Xiulian, president of the China-ASEAN Association (CAA), and about 600 leaders and

  15. MULTIPLE POSITIVE SOLUTIONS TO FOURTH-ORDER SINGULAR BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,using the Krasnaselskii's fixed point theory in cones and localization method,under more general conditions,the existence of n positive solutions to a class of fourth-order singular boundary value problems is considered.

  16. Alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma originating between the fourth and fifth metatarsal--case report and literature review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bolger, J C

    2010-09-01

    We report a case of alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma arising between the fourth and fifth metatarsal. A 13-year-old boy presented to outpatients with a history of pain and swelling in the lateral aspect of his left forefoot. Plain radiographs and MRI showed a soft tissue mass displacing the fourth metatarsal. Percutaneous biopsy revealed an alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma. Staging scans showed advanced metastatic disease. The patient was treated with chemotherapy. This highly malignant lesion remains challenging to diagnose, and difficult to treat successfully.

  17. 77 FR 37604 - Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-22

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA... enforce the safety zone for the Berkeley Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display in the Captain of the... Berkeley Pier in position 37 51'40'' N, 122 19'19'' W (NAD 83) from 9:30 p.m. until 10:15 p.m. on July...

  18. Block Hybrid Collocation Method with Application to Fourth Order Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Ken Yap

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The block hybrid collocation method with three off-step points is proposed for the direct solution of fourth order ordinary differential equations. The interpolation and collocation techniques are applied on basic polynomial to generate the main and additional methods. These methods are implemented in block form to obtain the approximation at seven points simultaneously. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the method. The method is also applied to solve the fourth order problem from ship dynamics.

  19. The origin of the lower fourth molar in canids, inferred by individual variation

    OpenAIRE

    Masakazu Asahara

    2016-01-01

    Background An increase in tooth number is an exception during mammalian evolution. The acquisition of the lower fourth molar in the bat-eared fox (Otocyon megalotis, Canidae, Carnivora, Mammalia) is one example; however, its developmental origin is not clear. In some canids (Canidae), individual variation exist as supernumerary molar M4. This study focuses on the acquisition of the lower fourth molar in canids and proposes that the inhibitory cascade model can explain its origin. Methods Occl...

  20. Field accuracy of fourth-generation rapid diagnostic tests for acute HIV-1: a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Fourth-generation HIV-1 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detect HIV-1 p24 antigen to screen for acute HIV-1. However, diagnostic accuracy during clinical use may be suboptimal. Methods: Clinical sensitivity and specificity of fourth-generation RDTs for acute HIV-1 were collated from field evaluation studies in adults identified by a systematic literature search. Results: Four studies with 17 381 participants from Australia, Swaziland, the United Kingdom and Malawi were identified. ...

  1. Arctic sea ice decline: Projected changes in timing and extent of sea ice in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, D.C.

    2010-01-01

    The Arctic region is warming faster than most regions of the world due in part to increasing greenhouse gases and positive feedbacks associated with the loss of snow and ice cover. One consequence has been a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice over the past 3 decades?a decline that is projected to continue by state-of-the-art models. Many stakeholders are therefore interested in how global warming may change the timing and extent of sea ice Arctic-wide, and for specific regions. To inform the public and decision makers of anticipated environmental changes, scientists are striving to better understand how sea ice influences ecosystem structure, local weather, and global climate. Here, projected changes in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are examined because sea ice influences the presence of, or accessibility to, a variety of local resources of commercial and cultural value. In this study, 21st century sea ice conditions in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are based on projections by 18 general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the fourth reporting period by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Sea ice projections are analyzed for each of two IPCC greenhouse gas forcing scenarios: the A1B `business as usual? scenario and the A2 scenario that is somewhat more aggressive in its CO2 emissions during the second half of the century. A large spread of uncertainty among projections by all 18 models was constrained by creating model subsets that excluded GCMs that poorly simulated the 1979-2008 satellite record of ice extent and seasonality. At the end of the 21st century (2090-2099), median sea ice projections among all combinations of model ensemble and forcing scenario were qualitatively similar. June is projected to experience the least amount of sea ice loss among all months. For the Chukchi Sea, projections show extensive ice melt during July and ice-free conditions during August, September, and October by the end of the century, with high agreement

  2. Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Jaczewski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate potential future changes of temperature indices in Poland for the period 2011–2030. The model is forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM data from World Data Centre (WDCC database for the 1971–1990 reference period and 2011–2030 projection period under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios. Model output statistics methods are used to transform simulated minimum and maximum temperature data into realistic data. Selected indices of temperature extremes and their differences between the scenario simulations and the reference were calculated, for all scenarios, for the entire period and for each season. Results show a mean yearly increase in the number of summer and hot days and a decrease in the number of frost and ice days. Highest decline in the number of frost and ice days in autumn and an increase in spring is noticed. An highest increase in the number of summer and hot days is seen in summer. Future projections of these indices are relevant for studies on climate change impact in agriculture, tourism, health, transportation, road and building infrastructure.

  3. New climate change report turns up the heat on energy policymakers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-12-15

    Any doubts about the role of nuclear power in fighting the damaging effects of climate change should be dispelled once and for all by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the IPCC's so-called 'Synthesis Report', published in November 2014, said that if left unchecked, climate change ''will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems''. The Synthesis Report, which brought together the findings of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report produced by more than 800 scientists and released over more than one year, noted that multiple mitigation pathways are available that could limit warming to below 2 C relative to pre-industrial levels, all of which would need substantial cuts in emissions reductions over the coming few decades and near-zero emissions of CO{sub 2} and other long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the end of the century. As 2014 draws to a close, perhaps those with the power to effect energy policy change will take time to reflect on the mounting evidence of what is good, and what is not good, in terms of balancing the world's energy needs with the planet's overall health.

  4. High Resolution AR5 Simulations of Climate Change for Mesoamerica using WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Hays, C.

    2011-12-01

    Mesoamerica (the countries from Mexico to Colombia) has been identified by IPCC as a low-latitude, developing region at considerable risk to climate change. Furthermore, the complex topography of the region, and interactions with adjacent tropical oceans, makes understanding of potential climate change from global climate models alone very problematic. The real need, however, for making these extremely computationally-demanding model simulations is to better define local and regional climate change effects so as to better identify and quantify impacts and associated vulnerabilities. This is an essential precursor to developing robust adaptation strategies. Previously, we made simulations with the WRF regional climate model forced by the NCAR CCSM global climate model to make scenarios based on IPCC AR4. With the recent release of the CMIP global model runs for IPCC AR5, opportunity has been provided to update the previous simulations. From a technical perspective, two key advancements have taken place: 1) The global simulations for AR5 feature models that are significantly improved and are run at higher resolution, and 2) Enhancements to computational resources means that we can run WRF at very high resolution for much more of Mesoamerica. In particular, the mountainous area simulated at 4 km resolution has been expanded greatly; also Jamaica and Hispanola are also now included. The experiment strategy includes simulations for 2006-2010 ('control') and 2056-2060 ('climate change scenario'), under the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The runs are underway as of this writing (expected completion November 2011). First results will be presented at the meeting, with focus on both how they differ from the earlier AR4 simulations, and on key implications for the Mesoamerican region.

  5. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

    2009-01-01

    Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

  6. Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

    2008-05-01

    This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

  7. Selected papers from the Fourth Annual q-bio Conference on Cellular Information Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemenman, Ilya; Faeder, James R; Hlavacek, William S; Jiang, Yi; Wall, Michael E; Zilman, Anton

    2011-10-01

    This special issue consists of 11 original papers that elaborate on work presented at the Fourth Annual q-bio Conference on Cellular Information Processing, which was held on the campus of St John's College in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, 11-14 August 2010. Now in its fourth year, the q-bio conference has changed considerably over time. It is now well established and a major event in systems biology. The 2010 conference saw attendees from all continents (except Antarctica!) sharing novel results and participating in lively discussions at both the oral and poster sessions. The conference was oversubscribed and grew to 27 contributed talks, 16 poster spotlights and 137 contributed posters. We deliberately decreased the number of invited speakers to 21 to leave more space for contributed presentations, and the attendee feedback confirmed that the choice was a success. Although the q-bio conference has grown and matured, it has remained true to the original goal of being an intimate and dynamic event that brings together modeling, theory and quantitative experimentation for the study of cell regulation and information processing. Funded in part by a grant from NIGMS and by DOE funds through the Los Alamos National Laboratory Directed Research and Development program, the conference has continued to exhibit youth and vigor by attracting (and partially supporting) over 100 undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral researchers. The associated q-bio summer school, which precedes the conference each year, further emphasizes the development of junior scientists and makes q-bio a singular event in its impact on the future of quantitative biology. In addition to an increased international presence, the conference has notably diversified its demographic representation within the USA, including increased participation from the southeastern corner of the country. One big change in the conference this year is our new publication partner, Physical Biology. Although we are very

  8. Prospective investigation of penile length with newborn male circumcision and second to fourth digit ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Kwan; Doo, A. Ram; Kim, Joo Heung; Park, Hyung Sub; Do, Jung Mo; Choi, Hwang; Park, Seung Chol; Kim, Myung Ki; Jeong, Young Beom; Kim, Hyung Jim; Kim, Young Gon; Shin, Yu Seob

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: We prospectively investigated the relationship between newborn male circumcision (NMC) and second to fourth digit ratio with penile length. Methods: As participants for our study, we identified already circumcised young patients who visited our hospital for urological treatment. The age at which the circumcision had been done was assessed. The patients’ height and weight were measured. Second to fourth digit ratio was calculated by measuring the second and fourth digit lengths. The flaccid and erectile penile lengths were measured from the base of the penis to the tip of the glans in standing position. Results: A total of 248 patients were included in our study. In univariate analysis, height, second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were associated with erectile penile length. Among these variables, second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were significant predictive factors for erectile penile length in multivariate analysis. The subjects were divided into two groups, including 72 patients in the NMC group and 176 patients in the non-NMC group. No significant difference was found in height, weight, and second to fourth digit ratio between both groups. However, flaccid (p<0.001) and erectile (p=0.001) penile lengths were shorter in the NMC group than in the non-NMC group. Conclusions: Despite the small number of subjects, this study shows that NMC was associated with shorter penile length. Second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were also significant predictive factors for erectile penile length. Further multicentre studies with larger number of subjects and biochemical analyses are needed for potential clinical applicability. PMID:27695583

  9. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  10. Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

    2009-01-01

    While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

  11. Discussion about"The Fourth Industry Revolution"%关于“第四次工业革命”的探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张海平

    2014-01-01

    介绍笔者在德国2013汉诺威工业博览会上所了解到的一些关于“第四次工业革命”的最新信息,包括:“第四次工业革命”的概念、特点,以及可能导致在工业的变革和对未来工业的影响。%This paper introduced the discussion about"The Fourth Industry Revolution", which the author read dur-ing the Hannover Messe 2013. And it includes the ideal, features of"The Fourth Industry Revolution". Moreover, some changes and influences over future industry were also proposed in this paper.

  12. Immunity's fourth dimension: approaching the circadian-immune connection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjona, Alvaro; Silver, Adam C; Walker, Wendy E; Fikrig, Erol

    2012-12-01

    The circadian system ensures the generation and maintenance of self-sustained ~24-h rhythms in physiology that are linked to internal and environmental changes. In mammals, daily variations in light intensity and other cues are integrated by a hypothalamic master clock that conveys circadian information to peripheral molecular clocks that orchestrate physiology. Multiple immune parameters also vary throughout the day and disruption of circadian homeostasis is associated with immune-related disease. Here, we discuss the molecular links between the circadian and immune systems and examine their outputs and disease implications. Understanding the mechanisms that underlie circadian-immune crosstalk may prove valuable for devising novel prophylactic and therapeutic interventions.

  13. PREFACE: Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Mariano; Cavaglia, Marco; Nelson, Jeanette E.

    2006-04-01

    The formulation of a quantum theory of gravity seems to be the unavoidable endpoint of modern theoretical physics. Yet the quantum description of the gravitational field remains elusive. The year 2005 marks the tenth anniversary of the First Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity, held in Dubna (Russia) due to the efforts of Alexandre T. Filippov (JINR, Dubna) and Vittorio de Alfaro (University of Torino, Italy). At the heart of this initiative was the desire for an international forum where the status and perspectives of research in quantum gravity could be discussed from the broader viewpoint of modern gauge field theories. Since the Dubna meeting, an increasing number of scientists has joined this quest. Progress was reported in two other conferences in this series: in Santa Margherita Ligure (Italy) in 1996 and in Villasimius (Sardinia, Italy) in 1999. After a few years of ``working silence'' the time was now mature for a new gathering. The Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity (QG05) was held in Cala Gonone (Sardinia, Italy) from Monday 12th to Friday 16th September 2005. Surrounded by beautiful scenery, 100 scientists from 23 countries working in field theory, general relativity and related areas discussed the latest developments in the quantum treatment of gravitational systems. The QG05 edition covered many of the issues that had been addressed in the previous meetings and new interesting developments in the field, such as brane world models, large extra dimensions, analogue models of gravity, non-commutative techniques etc. The format of the meeting was similar to the previous ones. The programme consisted of invited plenary talks and parallel sessions on cosmology, quantum gravity, strings and phenomenology, gauge theories and quantisation and black holes. A major goal was to bring together senior scientists and younger people at the beginning of their scientific career. We were able to give financial support to both

  14. Detection of Area Changes in River Mouthbars at the Mekong River Delta using ALOS/PALSAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, A.; Uehara, K.; Tamura, T.; Saito, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Projected sea-level rise by the year 2100 would be ~1m recently and its negative impact on the coastal zone has been pointed out, particularly for mega-deltas in Asia by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). The relative sea-level rise varies with specific conditions and processes over broad spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, long-term monitoring of geomorphological changes in coastal areas over wide areas is of highly interest and importance for coastal management. However, due to limited data availability and accessibility in developing countries, there is not enough systematic coastal monitoring. The Mekong River Delta is one of typical mega-deltas in Asia, which has a low-lying wide delta-plain located in Cambodia to South Vietnam. Sediment and water discharges of the Mekong River are controlled by the monsoon with high and low discharge in summer (wet season) and winter (dry season), respectively. Therefore, technologies such as SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) not affected by the cloud conditions offer potential for monitoring in the monsoon Asia region. In this study, ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite) PALSAR (Phased Array type L-band SAR) data acquired over a period from December 2006 to January 2011 are analyzed to investigate the relation between the sea level and the shape of mouthbars in the Mekong River. Level-1.0 PALSAR data were processed, coregistered, and geocoded to make SAR backscatter intensity images. River mouthbars with strong backscatter, which is surrounded by the water with weak backscatter, are successfully extracted using a histogram thresholding algorithm. Estimated areas of river mouthbars, which are located at the central part of the delta and openly faced to the South China Sea, gradually increase on an annual time scale. These river mouthbars are growing to the seaward. Besides this overall increasing trend, seasonal variations of areas are observed; these correlate with

  15. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS FOR EDUCATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ILONA PAJTÓK-TARI

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the key statements of the IPCC (2007 Reportbased mainly on the satellite-borne observations to support teaching climatechange and geography by using the potential of this technology. In theIntroduction we briefly specify the potential and the constraints of remote sensing.Next the key climate variables for indicating the changes are surveyed. Snow andsea-ice changes are displayed as examples for these applications. Testing theclimate models is a two-sided task involving satellites, as well. Validation of theability of reconstructing the present climate is the one side of the coin, whereassensitivity of the climate system is another key task, leading to consequences onthe reality of the projected changes. Finally some concluding remarks arecompiled, including a few ideas on the ways how these approaches can be appliedfor education of climate change.

  16. Choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle: Review and anatomic study highlighting anatomical variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tubbs, R Shane; Shoja, Mohammadali M; Aggarwal, Anjali; Gupta, Tulika; Loukas, Marios; Sahni, Daisy; Ansari, Shaheryar F; Cohen-Gadol, Aaron A

    2016-04-01

    Relatively few studies have been performed that analyze the morphology of the choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle. Due to the importance of this tissue as a landmark on imaging and during surgical intervention of the fourth ventricle, the authors performed a cadaveric study to better characterize this important structure. The choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle of 60 formalin fixed adult human brains was examined and measured. The horizontal distance from the midline to the lateral most point of the protruding tip of the horizontal limbs was measured. In the majority of the 60 brain specimens, right and left horizontal limbs of the choroid plexus were seen extending from the midline and protruding out of their respective lateral apertures of the fourth ventricle and into the subarachnoid space. However, on 3.3% of sides, there was absence of an extension into the foramen of Luschka and in one specimen, this lack of extension into the foramen of Luschka was bilateral. On two sides, there was discontinuity between the midline choroid plexus and the tuft of choroid just outside the foramen of Luschka. For specimens in which the choroid plexus did protrude through the foramen of Luschka (96.7%), these tufts were located anterior to the flocculus and inferolateral to the facial/vestibulocochlear nerve complex and posterosuperior to the glossopharyngeal/vagal/accessory complex. A thorough understanding of the normal and variant anatomy of the fourth ventricular choroid plexus is necessary for those who operate in, or interpret imaging of, this region.

  17. Hydrologic regime alteration of a Mediterranean catchment under climate change projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellami, Haykel; Benabdallah, Sihem; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Herrmann, Frank; Vanclooster, Marnik

    2014-05-01

    the following results. Climate change at the horizon of 2050 is likely to induce severe changes on the magnitude, frequency and extremes of the flow in the Chiba catchment. Monthly flow discharge is likely to be reduced by a median relative change (in respect to the reference period) ranging between -15% in summer to -40% in winter months. The maximum and minimum flow magnitude of different time duration (1-day, 3-days, 7-days, 30-days and 90-days) are likely to experience a significant decrease at the horizon of 2050. However, no significant change is projected in the timing of the flow. Changes in the flow duration curve suggest that the Chiba catchment is likely to face drier and more intermittent condition in the future. However, the predictions remain uncertain especially for high flows with flow percentiles equaled or exceeded less than 10% of the time. This study highlights the alarming situation that the Chiba catchment is likely to face in the future due to change in climate. More water threats and shortage are expected to occur which may threat the livelihood, the ecosystem and the local socio-economic development of the region. Therefore, the need for practical management plans that cope with those changes in climate and hydrology of the catchment is apparent. * Climate models were produced in the framework of the CLIMB project (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; http://www.climb-fp7.eu/home/home.php). References Giorgi, F., and Lionello, P.: Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region, Global and Planetary Change, 63, 90-104, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.09.005, 2008. IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996, 2007

  18. The Fourth Law of Motion in Classical Mechanics and Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinheiro, Mario J.

    2010-01-01

    Newton's second law has limited scope of application when transient phenomena are at stake. We endeavor here to consider a modification of Newton's second law in order to take into account sudden change (surge) of angular momentum or linear momentum. It is shown that space react back according to a kind of induction law that is related to inertia, but also appears to give evidence of a "fluidic" nature of space itself. The back-reaction is quantified by the time rate of the angular momentum flux threading a surface, mass dependent, and bearing similarity to the quantum mechanics phase shift, present in the Aharonov-Bohm and Aharonov-Casher effects, thus giving evidence of the property of vacuum polarization, a phenomena which is relative to local space. It is formulated a kind of (qualitative) Lenz law that gives an explanation to precession.

  19. Radiologic-pathologic Correlation-An Advanced Fourth-year Elective: How We Do It.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Matthew; Silverman, Jan; Spruill, Laura; Hill, Jeanne

    2016-07-01

    Traditionally, the radiology elective has been designed to teach medical students the fundamentals of radiologic interpretation. When questioned, many students state that they want to take a radiology elective so they can "interpret images." For the students on radiology, rotation/elective education was often passive, consisting of didactic conferences and observational shadowing of radiologists as they interpreted images. Students had only a superficial appreciation of how radiologists interacted with clinical services, multidisciplinary teams, and pathology. There was very little emphasis on imaging appropriateness or the most efficient and effective imaging for various clinical problems. With the expansion of numerous imaging modalities and the emphasis on patient-centered care, including imaging safety and dose reduction, it is important to change the focus of radiology education from interpretation to the optimal integration of imaging into clinical medicine. Radiology-pathology (rad path) electives were created at Allegheny General Hospital and the Medical University of South Carolina as a new option to provide a high-quality advanced elective for fourth-year medical students. These electives enable students to correlate radiologic images with gross and microscopic pathology specimens, thus increasing their knowledge and understanding of both. The rad path elective combines aspects of surgery, radiology, and pathology and requires students to be active learners. The implementation of this elective is an exciting work in progress that has been evolving over the past 2 and 4 years at Medical University of South Carolina and Allegheny General Hospital, respectively. We will discuss the historical basis for the elective, the advantages and challenges of having such an integrated course, and some different strategies for creating a rad path elective.

  20. Fourth-Order Contour Mode ZnO-on-SOI Disk Resonators for Mass Sensing Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Rivera

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we have investigated the design, fabrication and testing of ZnO-on-SOI fourth-order contour mode disk resonators for mass sensing applications. This study aims to unveil the possibility for real-time practical mass sensing applications by using high-Q ZnO-on-SOI contour-mode resonators while taking into account their unique modal characteristics. Through focused ion beam (FIB direct-write metal deposition techniques, the effects of localized mass loading on the surface of three extensional mode devices have been investigated. Ten microfabricated 40 mm-radius disk resonators, which all have a 20 mm-thick silicon device layer and 1 mm-thick ZnO transducer layer but varied anchor widths and numbers, have exhibited resonant frequencies ranging from 84.9 MHz to 86.7 MHz with Q factors exceeding 6000 (in air and 10,000 (in vacuum, respectively. It has been found that the added mass at the nodal locations leads to noticeable Q-factor degradation along with lower induced frequency drift, thereby resulting in reduced mass sensitivity. All three measured devices have shown a mass sensitivity of ~1.17 Hz·fg−1 at the maximum displacement points with less than 33.3 ppm of deviation in term of fractional frequency change. This mass sensitivity is significantly higher than 0.334 Hz·fg−1 at the nodal points. Moreover, the limit of detection (LOD for this resonant mass sensor was determined to be 367 ag and 1290 ag (1 ag = 10−18 g for loaded mass at the maximum and minimum displacement points, accordingly.

  1. Climate Change Policies for the XXIst Century: Mechanisms, Predictions and Recommendations

    CERN Document Server

    Khmelinskii, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric carbon dioxide contributes only very moderately to the observed warming, and that there is no climatic catastrophe in the making, independent on whether or not carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced. In view of these developments, we discuss climate predictions for the XXIst century. Based on the solar activity tendencies, a new Little Ice Age is predicted by the middle of this century, with significantly lower global temperatures. We also show that IPCC climate models can't produce any information regarding future climate, due to essential physical phenomena lacking in those, and that the current budget deficit in many EU countries is mainly caused by the policies promoting renewable energies and other AGW-motivated measures. In absence of any predictable adverse climate...

  2. Entropy Diagnostics for Fourth Order Partial Differential Equations in Conservation Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Phil Broadbridge

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The entropy evolution behaviour of a partial differential equation (PDE in conservation form, may be readily discerned from the sign of the local source term of Shannon information density. This can be easily used as a diagnostic tool to predict smoothing and non-smoothing properties, as well as positivity of solutions with conserved mass. The familiar fourth order diffusion equations arising in applications do not have increasing Shannon entropy. However, we obtain a new class of nonlinear fourth order diffusion equations that do indeed have this property. These equations also exhibit smoothing properties and they maintain positivity. The counter-intuitive behaviour of fourth order diffusion, observed to occur or not occur on an apparently ad hoc basis, can be predicted from an easily calculated entropy production rate. This is uniquely defined only after a technical definition of the irreducible source term of a reaction diffusion equation.

  3. Derivation and evaluation of the fourth moment of NMR lineshape in zero-field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutsuridis, Vassilis; Kahol, Pawan K

    2008-10-01

    An expression for the fourth moment in zero-field NMR has been analytically derived and numerically evaluated for a rigid cubic lattice. Model simulations have been performed to calculate the second moment, the fourth moment, the ratio of the fourth moment to the square of the second moment, and the width of the resonance line for a crystal and a polycrystalline material in high-field as well as in zero-field NMR. The simulation results allow us to draw two conclusions: (1) zero-field NMR gives sharper and better defined spectra than the high-field NMR and (2) the ratio of the high- to zero-field resonance line-widths is 4 for a crystal, whereas it is 11 for a polycrystalline material.

  4. Effect of a magnetic field on fourth sound in /sup 3/He

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daly, K.

    1988-05-01

    The influence of a magnetic field on the propagation of fourth sound in superfluid /sup 3/He is studied. The field and temperature dependences of the average superfluid density /anti rho//sub s///rho/ and fourth sound Q are measured. The field dependence of /anti rho//sub s///rho/ is very different in a porous medium than predicted by Ginzburg-Landau theory applied to bulk liquid. In particular, a magnetic suppression of /anti rho//sub s///rho/ is observed in the temperature and pressure ranges corresponding to the A phase in bulk liquid. There is strong evidence of a magnetic suppression of T/sub c/ itself. The measured /anti rho//sub s///rho/ has a slight history dependence in a magnetic field, but none in zero field. The fourth-sound Q values are compared to the theoretical work of Smith, Jensen, and Wolfle. Quantitative confirmation of their work is problematic.

  5. Constraining a fourth generation of quarks. Non-perturbative Higgs boson mass bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulava, J. [European Lab. for Particle Physics (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Jansen, K. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Nagy, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Zeuthen (Germany). John von Neumann-Inst. fuer Computing NIC; Humboldt-Universitaet, Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik

    2013-01-15

    We present a non-perturbative determination of the upper and lower Higgs boson mass bounds with a heavy fourth generation of quarks from numerical lattice computations in a chirally symmetric Higgs-Yukawa model. We find that the upper bound only moderately rises with the quark mass while the lower bound increases significantly, providing additional constraints on the existence of a straight-forward fourth quark generation. We examine the stability of the lower bound under the addition of a higher dimensional operator to the scalar field potential using perturbation theory, demonstrating that it is not significantly altered for small values of the coupling of this operator. For a Higgs boson mass of {proportional_to}125 GeV we find that the maximum value of the fourth generation quark mass is {proportional_to}300 GeV, which is already in conflict with bounds from direct searches.

  6. On the third- and fourth-order constants of incompressible isotropic elasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destrade, Michel; Ogden, Raymond W

    2010-12-01

    Consider the constitutive law for an isotropic elastic solid with the strain-energy function expanded up to the fourth order in the strain and the stress up to the third order in the strain. The stress-strain relation can then be inverted to give the strain in terms of the stress with a view to considering the incompressible limit. For this purpose, use of the logarithmic strain tensor is of particular value. It enables the limiting values of all nine fourth-order elastic constants in the incompressible limit to be evaluated precisely and rigorously. In particular, it is explained why the three constants of fourth-order incompressible elasticity μ, Ā, and D are of the same order of magnitude. Several examples of application of the results follow, including determination of the acoustoelastic coefficients in incompressible solids and the limiting values of the coefficients of nonlinearity for elastic wave propagation.

  7. On the nature of the fourth generation neutrino and its implications

    CERN Document Server

    Aparici, Alberto; Rius, Nuria; Santamaria, Arcadi

    2012-01-01

    We consider the neutrino sector of a Standard Model with four generations. While the three light neutrinos can obtain their masses from a variety of mechanisms with or without new neutral fermions, fourth-generation neutrinos need at least one new relatively light right-handed neutrino. If lepton number is not conserved this neutrino must have a Majorana mass term whose size depends on the underlying mechanism for lepton number violation. Majorana masses for the fourth generation neutrinos induce relative large two-loop contributions to the light neutrino masses which could be even larger than the cosmological bounds. This sets strong limits on the mass parameters and mixings of the fourth generation neutrinos.

  8. Treatment of Complications after Distraction Osteogenesis for Brachymetatarsia of the Fourth Metatarsal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Mariko; Nagasao, Tomohisa; Kishi, Kazuo

    2016-01-01

    Summary: Congenital brachymetatarsia most commonly involves the fourth ray and may be combined with metacarpal shortening. Numerous reports have demonstrated the usefulness of gradual lengthening of the metatarsals. However, very few studies have investigated methods of recovering the lost regenerative bone. The patient was a 16-year-old girl with bilateral brachymetatarsia of the fourth metatarsal. After a long consolidation period after gradual lengthening of the fourth metatarsal by 20 mm, the patient had an hourglass-shaped regenerated bone. Therefore, we grafted a bioabsorbable hydroxyapatite and collagen composite. Six months after the surgery, well-regenerated bone could be recognized on radiographic evaluation and was resistant to refracture. Callus distraction is a method that aims to avoid donor site morbidity. The strength of artificial bone is often a problem. Bioabsorbable hydroxyapatite and collagen composite compensates for the lack of regenerated bone and distraction gap and prevents refracture, thus preventing complications after metatarsal distraction. PMID:27536496

  9. The Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. Fourth quarter, 1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-12-31

    The Environmental Monitoring Section of the Environmental and Health Protection (EHP) Department administers the Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. During fourth quarter 1989 (October--December), EHP conducted routine sampling of monitoring wells and drinking water locations. EHP collected the drinking water samples from Savannah River Site (SRS) drinking water systems supplied by wells. EHP established two sets of flagging criteria in 1986 to assist in the management of sample results. The flagging criteria aid personnel in sample scheduling, interpretation of data, and trend identification. An explanation of flagging criteria for the fourth quarter is presented in the Flagging Criteria section of this document. All analytical results from fourth quarter 1989 are listed in this report, which is distributed to all waste-site custodians.

  10. Fourth Ventricular Schwannoma: Identical Clinicopathologic Features as Schwann Cell-Derived Schwannoma with Unique Etiopathologic Origins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiffany R. Hodges

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. To our knowledge, this is the sixth reported case in the literature of fourth ventricular schwannoma. The etiology and natural history of intraventricular schwannomas is not well understood. A thorough review of potential etiopathogenic mechanisms is provided in this case report. Case Description. A 69-year-old man presented with an incidentally found fourth ventricular tumor during an evaluation for generalized weakness, gait instability, and memory disturbance. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI revealed a heterogeneously enhancing lesion in the fourth ventricle. A suboccipital craniotomy was performed to resect the lesion. Histopathological examination confirmed the diagnosis of schwannoma (WHO grade I. Conclusions. Schwannomas should be considered in the differential diagnosis of intraventricular tumors. Although the embryologic origins may be different from nerve sheath-derived schwannomas, the histologic, clinical, and natural history appear identical and thus should be managed similarly.

  11. Fourth-order partial differential equation noise removal on welding images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halim, Suhaila Abd; Ibrahim, Arsmah; Sulong, Tuan Nurul Norazura Tuan; Manurung, Yupiter HP

    2015-10-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) has become one of the important topics in mathematics and is widely used in various fields. It can be used for image denoising in the image analysis field. In this paper, a fourth-order PDE is discussed and implemented as a denoising method on digital images. The fourth-order PDE is solved computationally using finite difference approach and then implemented on a set of digital radiographic images with welding defects. The performance of the discretized model is evaluated using Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). Simulation is carried out on the discretized model on different level of Gaussian noise in order to get the maximum PSNR value. The convergence criteria chosen to determine the number of iterations required is measured based on the highest PSNR value. Results obtained show that the fourth-order PDE model produced promising results as an image denoising tool compared with median filter.

  12. Fourth-order partial differential equation noise removal on welding images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halim, Suhaila Abd; Ibrahim, Arsmah; Sulong, Tuan Nurul Norazura Tuan [Center of Mathematics Studies, Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor. Malaysia (Malaysia); Manurung, Yupiter HP [Advanced Manufacturing Technology Center, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Universiti TEknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor. Malaysia (Malaysia)

    2015-10-22

    Partial differential equation (PDE) has become one of the important topics in mathematics and is widely used in various fields. It can be used for image denoising in the image analysis field. In this paper, a fourth-order PDE is discussed and implemented as a denoising method on digital images. The fourth-order PDE is solved computationally using finite difference approach and then implemented on a set of digital radiographic images with welding defects. The performance of the discretized model is evaluated using Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). Simulation is carried out on the discretized model on different level of Gaussian noise in order to get the maximum PSNR value. The convergence criteria chosen to determine the number of iterations required is measured based on the highest PSNR value. Results obtained show that the fourth-order PDE model produced promising results as an image denoising tool compared with median filter.

  13. Noise reduction in electronic speckle pattern interferometry fringes by fourth-order partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Wei; Tang, Chen; Wang, Wenping

    2007-01-01

    Noise reduction is one of the largest problems and biggest difficulties involved in electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI). Although the second-order PDEs denoising method is a useful tool of noise reduction for the ESPI fringe patterns, its main drawback is that the second-order PDE model does not remove impulse noise, a 3×3 mean window filter is generally needed to improve the fringes. For overcome this main drawback, in this paper we apply the fourth-order PDE denoising model to the computer-simulated and experimentally obtained ESPI fringe, respectively. In both tests, the fourth-order PDE denoising model clearly outperforms the second-order PDE denoising model. Experimental results have confirmed that the fourth-order PDE denoising model is capable of removing noise in ESPI fringe images effectively.

  14. Turn left for Murmansk: ‘Fourth World’ transculturalism and its cultural ecological framing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Dillon

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we review briefly histories and ideologies underlying multiculturalism in Nordic countries, highlighting tensions between integrationist and inclusive approaches. We propose a cultural ecological framework through which we discuss the possibility of a transculturalism based on Fourth World engagement with the environment. Cultural ecology is about the reciprocal interactions and transactions between people and their environments. The Fourth World is a circum-global, pan-arctic region which includes the northern parts of some Nordic countries. We argue that whether or not there is a distinctively Nordic version of multiculturalism, Nordic countries have access to Fourth World ways of engaging with the environment which transcend notions of inter- and multiculturalism and the ideological tensions associated with them.

  15. Isolated fourth ventricular cysticercus cyst: MR imaging in 4 cases with short literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI signal characteristics of isolated (solitary lesion intra fourth ventricular cysticercus cyst in 4 patients who clinically presented with obstructive hydrocephalus. All patients had routine MRI sequences (T1, T2, & proton density-weighted imaging, Fluid Attenuation Inversion Recovery (FLAIR, and post-gadolinium imaging followed by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF flow study. It revealed a CSF signal intensity (on all pulse sequences, intra fourth ventricular cyst with a nidus (scolex, and wall enhancement. On T1-weighted and FLAIR images, the cyst wall and nidus (scolex were seen in 3 cases, which were not seen in other routine sequences. The CSF flow study showed the intraluminal nature of the cyst. The MRI features suspected a cysticercus cyst, and per-operative findings and histopathological examination confirmed the diagnosis. The review of literature of the intra fourth ventricular cyst is briefly discussed.

  16. Blasius flow and heat transfer of fourth-grade fluid with slip

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    B SAHOO; S PONCET

    2013-01-01

    This investigation deals with the effects of slip, magnetic field, and non-Newtonian flow parameters on the flow and heat transfer of an incompressible, electrically conducting fourth-grade fluid past an infinite porous plate. The heat transfer analysis is carried out for two heating processes. The system of highly non-linear differential equations is solved by the shooting method with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method for moderate values of the parameters. The effective Broyden technique is adopted in order to improve the initial guesses and to satisfy the boundary conditions at infinity. An exceptional cross-over is obtained in the velocity profile in the presence of slip. The fourth-grade fluid parameter is found to increase the momentum boundary layer thickness, whereas the slip parameter substantially decreases it. Similarly, the non-Newtonian fluid parameters and the slip have opposite effects on the thermal boundary layer thickness.

  17. Fenestration of the superior medullary velum as treatment for a trapped fourth ventricle: a feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tubbs, R Shane; Wellons, John C; Salter, George; Oakes, W Jerry

    2004-03-01

    We developed a novel approach for fenestration of the trapped fourth ventricle utilizing the superior medullary velum (valve of Vieussens). Trapped fourth ventricles, which are seen often in the pediatric hydrocephalic population, are troublesome entities surgically. A right burr hole was carried out in 10 adult cadavers with no gross intracranial pathology and the superior medullary velum was fenestrated to the quadrigeminal cistern with the aid of an endoscope. This technique was carried out easily in all cadaveric specimens. With endoscopy, no vascular insult was appreciated either before or after fenestration of the superior medullary velum. These preliminary findings demonstrate that fenestration of the superior medullary velum may provide a good alternative to the present therapy of shunting trapped fourth ventricles, a therapy wrought with complications.

  18. Towards a "fourth generation" of approaches to HIV/AIDS management: creating contexts for effective community mobilisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Catherine; Cornish, Flora

    2010-01-01

    Many biomedical and behavioural HIV/AIDS programmes aimed at prevention, care and treatment have disappointing outcomes because of a lack of effective community mobilisation. But community mobilisation is notoriously difficult to bring about. We present a conceptual framework that maps out those dimensions of social context that are likely to support or undermine community mobilisation efforts, proposing that attention should be given to three dimensions of social context: the material, symbolic and relational. This paper has four parts. We begin by outlining why community mobilisation is regarded as a core dimension of effective HIV/AIDS management: it increases the "reach" and sustainability of programmes; it is a vital component of the wider "task shifting" agenda given the scarcity of health professionals in many HIV/AIDS-vulnerable contexts. Most importantly it facilitates those social psychological processes that we argue are vital preconditions for effective prevention, care and treatment. Secondly we map out three generations of approaches to behaviour change within the HIV/AIDS field: HIV-awareness, peer education and community mobilisation. We critically evaluate each approach's underlying assumptions about the drivers of behaviour change, to frame our understandings of the pathways between mobilisation and health, drawing on the concepts of social capital, dialogue and empowerment. Thirdly we refer to two well-documented case studies of community mobilisation in India and South Africa to illustrate our claim that community mobilisation is unlikely to succeed in the absence of supportive material, symbolic and relational contexts. Fourthly we provide a brief overview of how the papers in this special issue help us flesh out our conceptualisation of the "health enabling social environment". We conclude by arguing for the urgent need for a 'fourth generation' of approaches in the theory and practice of HIV/AIDS management, one which pays far greater

  19. Neuroradiological findings and clinical features of fourth-ventricular meningioma: A study of 10 cases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, B.-Y.; Yin, B.; Li, Y.-X. [Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Wu, J.-S. [Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Chen, H. [Department of Neuropathology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Wang, X.-Q., E-mail: wangxq10@126.com [Department of Neurosurgery, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China); Geng Daoyng, E-mail: fdhsgdy@126.com [Department of Radiology, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai (China)

    2012-05-15

    Aim: To present the neuroradiological and clinical findings of fourth-ventricular meningiomas to increase awareness of this entity. Materials and methods: The computed tomography (CT; n = 5), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI; n = 9) features and clinical presentations of 10 patients with pathologically documented fourth-ventricular meningiomas were retrospectively analysed. Results: All tumours appeared as well-demarcated masses in the fourth ventricle at CT and MRI. The tumour shape was round in eight cases (80%) and irregular in two cases (20%). The CT images of five cases showed predominantly isoattenuation in three cases and high attenuation in two cases, with a mean attenuation value of 52 HU. In addition, calcifications were seen in three cases. At MRI, nine masses were isointense (n = 6) or hypointense (n = 3) to grey matter on T1-weighted images and mildly hyperintense (n = 4), isointense (n = 3), hypointense (n = 1), and of mixed signal intensity (n = 1) on T2-weighted and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. Signal voids were visible in two cases. Enhancement after injection of contrast material was marked homogeneous (n = 5) or heterogeneous (n = 5) on CT or T1-weighted images. Three tumours had mild peritumoural oedema. Three tumours were associated with obstructive hydrocephalus. The pathological subtype of the 10 meningiomas was fibromatous (n = 5), atypical (n = 2), and one each of transitional, psammomatous, and clear-cell type. Conclusion: Although fourth-ventricular meningioma is quite rare, it should be considered in differential diagnosis of neoplasms within the fourth ventricle. The relatively typical radiological appearance, combined the age and sex of patients, can suggest the diagnosis of fourth-ventricular meningioma.

  20. Educational Change in Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alnahdi, Ghaleb Hamad

    2014-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to discuss the possibility of adapting the suggestions by Hargreaves and Shirley (2009) in their book "The Fourth Way." This paper will discuss the topic of educational change and reform through three main points. First, it will review the most important advantages and disadvantages that characterize the…