WorldWideScience

Sample records for change ipcc fourth

  1. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  2. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  3. Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W. D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Sun, Y.; Portmann, R. W.; Fu, Q.; Casanova, S. E. B.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fillmore, D. W.; Forster, P. M. D.; Galin, V. Y.; Gohar, L. K.; Ingram, W. J.; Kratz, D. P.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Li, J.; Marquet, P.; Oinas, V.; Tsushima, Y.; Uchiyama, T.; Zhong, W. Y.

    2006-07-01

    The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

  4. Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny; Bogner,Jean; Bosch, Peter; Dave, Rutu; Davidson, Ogunlade; Fisher, Brian; Grubb,Michael; Gupta, Sujata; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Heij, Bertjan; Kahn Ribeiro,Suzana; Kobayashi, Shigeki; Levine, Mark; Martino, Daniel; MaseraCerutti, Omar; Metz, Bert; Meyer, Leo; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Najam, Adil; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Rogner, Hans Holger; Roy, Joyashree; Sathaye,Jayant; Schock, Robert; Shukla, Priyaradshi; Sims, Ralph; Smith, Pete; Swart, Rob; Tirpak, Dennis; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; Zhou, Dadi

    2007-04-30

    A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.

  5. IPCC underestimates the Sun’s role in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. van Geel; P.A. Ziegler

    2013-01-01

    For the understanding of current and future climate change it is a basic pre requisite to properly understand the mechanisms, which controlled climate change after the Last Ice Age. According to the IPCC 5th assessment report (in prep.) the Sun has not been a major driver of climate change during th

  6. EVIDENCE OF ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC CHANGES AND THEIR REGULATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (FURTHER FINDINGS SINCE THE FOURTH IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORT RELEASED)%南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈立奇

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the climate of the Arctic and the Antarctic have been of great concern to international scientific and social communities since the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released in 2007. Since then, many new findings have been reported from observations and research carried out in the Arctic and Antarctic during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY). There is evidence that rapid changes in the Arctic and Antarctic induced by global warming are occurring in a quantitative and qualitative sense, and Arctic and Antarctic regional changes could be used indicators of global climate change. Declining Arctic sea ice could impact on winter snowfall in much of the Northern Hemisphere, with colder winters and more snow. Projections suggest that summertime Arctic sea ice will disappear by 2040. By 2050, the Antarctic ozone hole will have recovered to the level of the early 1980s, when the production of freon was completely prohibited. With weakening the shielding effect of the ozone hole to the global warming, it will become warmer in Antarctica and East Antarctica, leading to melting of ice sheets and retreating sea ice. Sea level rise will be a serious issue. As sea surface temperature rises the air-sea exchange of CO2 will be enhanced and surface water will take up more C02. This will lead to ocean acidification with important effects on ecological systems and food chains.%政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 2007年发布了第四次评估报告,全球气候变化问题再次成为一个重要的国际科学和政治议题.2007年以来,通过实施第四次国际极地年行动所获得的成果进一步证明,全球变暖所诱发极区出现的快速变化正在经历由量到质的转变,表明两极变化对全球气候变化起着一种指示和调控作用.一些研究指出:北冰洋会在2040年前后出现夏季无海冰并将引起北半球大范围的持续暴雪的寒冷冬季发生;2050

  7. Evaluation of an IPCC climate report. An analysis of conclusions on the possible regional consequences of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains the results of a study of the reliability of the regional chapters (H9-16) of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Climate Report of the IPCC (the sub report on consequences, adaptation and vulnerability). Moreover an assessment was made of the possible consequences of errors for the conclusions in the high level summaries of that report. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency did not detect any errors that may undermine the main conclusions of the scientific UN Climate Panel IPCC of 2007 on the possible future consequences of climate change. However, some of the substantiations of the conclusions lack clarity. To prevent lack of clarity and inaccuracies the IPCC needs to invest more in quality checks.

  8. Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific Developments Needed to Understand, Predict, and Respond to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Doherty, Sarah J.; Bojinski, Stephan; Goodrich, David; Henderson-Sellers, Ann; Noone, Kevin; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.; Church, John A.; Hibbard, Kathy A.; Karl, Thomas R.; Kajfez-Bogataj, Lucka; Lynch, Amanda H.; Parker, D.E.; Thorne, Peter; Prentice, I. Colin; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming is “unequivocal” and that most of the observed increase since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, with discernible human influences on ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, wind patterns, and other physical and biological indicators, impacting both socioeconomic and eco...

  9. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokona, Youba

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

  10. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  11. Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

  12. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Wal, R.S.W. van de [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands); Katsman, C.A. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, De Bilt (Netherlands); Vermeersen, L.L.A. [TU Delft, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft (Netherlands); Riva, R.E.M. [TU Delft, Delft (Netherlands)

    2012-03-15

    Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario. (orig.)

  13. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

  14. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Pearce

    Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  15. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  16. The IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This contribution presents the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The author indicates the number of involved researchers, the work groups (climate changes, environmental and socio-economic consequences, adaptation and mitigation options), the number of published reports. The author addresses weather observations, their historical evolution, and the development of modelling studies (more than 40 3D models exist). He discusses information (sea temperature, average temperature, climate anomalies, sea level change, observed change in precipitation over land) which show that climate change is now unambiguous. Consequences are discussed in terms of temperature, of impact of CO2 and greenhouse gases emissions, and the author discusses the issue of assessment of future risks related to temperature increase, sea level rise, evolution of precipitation, CO2 emissions. Challenges concern housing location and construction, and researches on CO2 capture and sequestration

  17. Climate change driving forces. Nuclear energy and the latest IPCC emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How the world will develop over the next 100 years is riddled with uncertainties. Yet analysts can assess alternative developmental paths and diverse sets of driving forces to gain an image of the future - in fact a number of images, depending on assumptions they use. Over the past decades, the scientific and research community has devoted considerable attention to studying issues of climate change, and to modeling its possible future development, impact and ways to mitigate potential effects. The studies are complex, involving assessments of social, economic, and technological developments in diverse fields. In early 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved a Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period through 2100. It contains 40 scenarios, prepared with six computer models, for the world and its main regions, and focuses largely on the main greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulphur dioxide. The scenarios are designed to provide a basis for assessments of climate change and its impact. The new scenarios are 'non-intervention' ones with regard to climate change - that is, they exclude measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, policies with respect to other environmental factors are included; this includes, for example, progress in sulphur abatement technologies in developing countries, which results in lower global sulphur dioxide emissions than in previous IPCC assessments. This article briefly reviews the latest IPCC emission scenarios and looks closely at the projected role of nuclear energy, which can provide a valuable long-term perspective for nuclear development. This perspective is especially useful since the possible 'nuclear futures' were modelled in the scenarios without taking into account considerations specifically related to climate change. Rather, the scenarios focused on technical and economic competition among energy supply options as the key driving force for determining the fuel mix in the energy

  18. Vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change: sequencing impacts over IPCC trajectories for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Agricultural systems are susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. While the degree of vulnerability is a function of the magnitude and the rate of variation in climate exposure, agricultural systems with a stronger adaptive capacity are likely to be less vulnerable to climate change. In preparing the agriculture sector for ongoing climate change, adaptation planning to moderate potential impacts and to take advantage of opportunities, has emerged as an effective strategic response. Global climate change scenarios developed by the IPCC indicate that changes in climate may alter the production potential of agriculture across many regions. Wide regional variability in productivity, extensive land use and the dominance in rural economies across Australia could expose agriculture to considerable risks from climate change impacts. In many cases these risks could cascade across a range of sectors and vary overtime, reflecting the capacity of exposed enterprises to adapt to a changing climate by taking advantage of opportunities. Effective planning of adaptation responses will require integrated assessments of regional vulnerability to climate risks over IPCC projection trajectories. In this paper, we present a method for estimating and mapping vulnerability to climate risks at the regional level, and apply this method to examine the vulnerability of Australian agriculture to climate change, focusing on case studies drawn from dryland broadacre and irrigated horticulture industries. In developing a conceptual framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation options, the paper provides a review of key approaches used globally for the assessment of vulnerability to climate change in agriculture. It presents an approach to link global climate change scenario-based projections for assessing economic impacts on industries and regions through a process that maps climate risks to factors contributing

  19. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.;

    2016-01-01

    across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...... science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even...

  20. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  1. Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change. Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual, and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the 'technical' options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adaptation framework involving four steps is suggested, including (1) information collection and awareness raising; (2) planning and design; (3) implementation, and (4) monitoring and evaluation. The incomplete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject. 46 refs

  2. Workshop climate change. The second report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Impressions and reactions from the Dutch society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In December 1995 the Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published four reports in which the most recent scientific findings with respect to the climate change problemacy are outlined: (1) The Science of Climate Change (IPCC Working Group 1); (2) Scientific-Technical Analysis of Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change (IPCC Working Group); (3)The Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (IPCC Working Group 3); and (4) Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information (IPCC Second Assessment). Experts from governmental institutes, industry, businesses, non-governmental institutes, research institutes, and politicians in the Netherlands reviewed the reports and assessed the contents during the title workshop. 21 fig., 4 refs

  3. Climate Change Mitigation in a Sustainable World - Findings of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 4th Assessment Report on climate change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) has recently been completed. The fi rst report in the IPCC 4th Assessment series by Working Group I outlined the latest knowledge on Climate Science. The second by Working Group 2 covered the possibilities for Adaptation of ecosystems, glaciers preceding, sea level rising, droughts etc in various regions. This paper is based on the findings of Working Group III as presented in the recently published report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. The 27 paragraph Summary for Policy Makers was approved sentence by sentence over 4 days in May 2007 by 120 government delegations in Bangkok, Thailand. The three short Summaries for Policy Makers (SPM), Synthesis report, and the three full reports can be found at www.ipcc.ch. In addition the short Synthesis Report across all three working groups is soon to be released. The report on Mitigation attempted to compile the latest scientific knowledge relating to low-carbon emitting technologies; assessed their costs and potentials for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission avoidance; evaluated their long term prospects out to 2100 for stabilising atmospheric GHGs; provided a detailed list of policy options; and discussed the opportunities for sustainable development and equity linked with GHG abatement. Over the 3 year writing and review process, the author of this paper was the co-ordinating lead author of the writing team for the Working Group III chapter on Energy Supply. Of the 13 chapters, this one received the greatest attention with over 5000 review comments that were each responded to, and with the sections on nuclear and renewable energy receiving a major share of them. Since the 3rd Assessment Report (TAR) was published in 2001, the over-arching message now being delivered by Working Group III is a stronger but positive one: Action is required. The situation is urgent - but not beyond repair. Many energy

  4. Mitigation of climate change: back to IPCC's fifth report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current knowledge on climate change mitigation, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III fifth assessment report. The report emphasizes how little room for manoeuvre there is to meet the target of a global mean surface temperature increase below 2 deg. C, if ambitious policies to reduce greenhouse gases are not implemented by 2020. It also assesses sectoral potentials for emissions reductions and addresses emerging questions, in particular regarding the financing of decarbonization pathways. The report finally highlights the need for integrated policies to take advantage of co-benefits of climate policies (health, energy security, etc.), the evaluation of which is becoming more systematic. (authors)

  5. IPCC encourages energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dryness, floods, food insecurity, population migrations, conflicts are some of the risks that climate change would pose. These risks are listed in the second volume ('Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability') of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published on March 31, 2014. The proposed mitigation measures are presented in a third volume published on April 13, in which the IPCC proposes to accelerate the energy transition. This short paper summarizes the conclusions of the Fifth Assessment Report

  6. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-lin CHEN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3 under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  7. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang-lin CHEN; Jun-cheng ZUO; Mei-xiang CHEN; Zhi-gang GAO; C-K SHUM

    2014-01-01

    Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR), it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM), with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs), was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3) under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  8. Climate change: the new French simulations for the next IPCC report. Press conference, Thursday 9 February 2012, in Paris

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a press release presenting the various new simulations performed by different French scientific institutions and to be included in the next IPCC report, this document indicates the interveners of this press conference, presents the IPCC, its publications, agenda and recommendations, presents the new approach adopted for the simulations of future climate and for the elaboration of social-economical scenarios, briefly presents the various recent climate simulations (considered period, projection horizon, study of carbon cycle, analysis and study of clouds, studies of detection and assignment of climate change), and presents results obtained in terms of temperatures, rainfalls, and ice coverage (past, recent and foreseen evolutions)

  9. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  10. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  11. IPCC - the global climate monopoly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    IPCC has a dominant, almost monopolistic position when it comes to making statements about the environment and climatic change. A critical assessment of the institution is made, and attention is drawn to the fact that IPCC is not an organization with solely a scientific mission, but a hybrid between science and politics. Some of the objections from the scientific community against IPCC's models and predictions are presented

  12. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  13. Simulated changes in the atmospheric water balance over South Asia in the eight IPCC AR4 coupled climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasanna, Venkatraman; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2011-05-01

    This paper evaluates the performance of eight state-of-art IPCC-AR4 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in their representation of regional characteristics of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. The results presented here are the regional climate change scenarios of atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation ( P, C and E) up to the end of the twenty-second century based on IPCC AR4 modelling experiments conducted for (A1B) future greenhouse gas emission scenario. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed atmospheric water balance and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance changes under A1B scenario are discussed in detail. Spatial patterns of rainfall change projections indicate maximum increase over northwest India in most of the models, but changes in the atmospheric water balance are generally widespread over South Asia. While the scenarios presented in this study are indicative of the expected range of rainfall and water balance changes, it must be noted that the quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them.

  14. IPCC's Climate Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almlund, Pernille

    The work of IPCC is an important work and contribution to the global discussion and global challenge of climate change. But this work is primarily based on computer modelling, natural science, economic science and as a new perspective a stronger focus on the risk perspective than in earlier IPCC...... reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

  15. IPCC and other assessments as vehicles for integrating natural and social science research to address human dimensions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    IPCC and other assessments address both natural and social science aspects of climate change, but this approach has historically involved relatively little integration across the two sets of disciplines. In a framing that is only slightly oversimplified, past relationships were mostly sequential. From a physical climate perspective, human behavior was a boundary condition setting the trajectory of atmospheric forcing. And from an impacts perspective, changes in the physical climate set the stage upon which humans experienced impacts and made decisions about adaptation and mitigation. Integrated assessment models have been the main locus of research on questions about bi-directional coupling, where the trajectory of the physical climate influences GHG balance related to the need for agricultural land as well as GHG emissions from other activities. In the IPCC AR4 (2007), feedbacks from the natural carbon cycle to climate were a focus, but with little discussion of the potentially important feedbacks from climate-carbon interactions in the human domain. Detailed research and modeling in this area are still in the relatively early stages. For the future, IPCC and other assessments potentially provide a vehicle for new insights about the interaction of natural and social science dimensions of climate change. Several aspects could be interesting. Some of these relate to the decisions that modulate GHG emissions. For example, how does scientific understanding of climate change influence people's interest in mitigation and adaptation? How does it influence their willingness to pay? How are these modulated by regional and global geopolitics? Other potentially interesting aspects relate to interactions between mitigation and adaptation. For example, how does local experience of climate change alter the balance of focus on adaptation and mitigation? Still others relate to the nature of impacts and the role of sustainable development. With an aggress sustainable development

  16. Noaa contributions to the 1995 IPCC assessments: A summary of the current and future activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contents: introduction -the IPCC and NOAA; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 science assessment; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessment; NOAA contributions to the 1995 IPCC economics and greenhouse-gas scenario assessment

  17. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  18. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  19. The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

  20. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

  1. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  2. Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitation in the 20th and 21st centuries: 1. Evaluation of late 20th century simulations from IPCC models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, Keah C.; Cassano, John J.

    2009-10-01

    Using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique, the sea level pressure synoptic climatology and precipitation of 15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models are compared to that of the ERA-40 reanalysis for the North Atlantic region for the period 1961 to 1999. Three of the models, the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63), the MIROC3.2(hires), and the MPI-ECHAM5, best reproduce the ERA-40 synoptic climatology and are chosen for further analysis of precipitation over Greenland. The MIROC3.2(hires) is the best single performing model, in that it best matches ERA-40. Although the three-model ensemble simulates the same mean annual precipitation over Greenland as ERA-40, the ensemble simulates the mean annual precipitation differently than ERA-40. A dry bias in the CCCMA-CGCM3.1(T63) and a wet bias from the MPI-ECHAM5 cancel in the ensemble average. The mean annual precipitation difference between the model ensemble, as well as each individual model, and ERA-40 is then attributed to differences in intrapattern variability and pattern frequency components in the models that make up the ensemble. Pattern frequency differences between the model and ERA-40 indicate a difference in the occurrence of synoptic weather patterns, while intrapattern variability differences denote differences in the amount of precipitation produced when a given synoptic weather pattern occurs. Intrapattern variability differences between the models and ERA-40 are predominantly responsible for Greenland precipitation differences, but pattern frequency (circulation) differences in the models also play a small role. Part 2 of this paper uses this three-model ensemble to analyze and attribute predicted increases in precipitation over the Greenland ice sheet for the 21st century.

  3. Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

  4. Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.; Cameron, Laura; Rubis, Jennifer; Maillet, Michelle; Nakashima, Douglas; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Pearce, Tristan

    2016-04-01

    The IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, forming the interface between science, policy and global politics. Indigenous issues have been under-represented in previous IPCC assessments. In this Perspective, we analyse how indigenous content is covered and framed in the Working Group II (WGII) portion of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). We find that although there is reference to indigenous content in WGII, which increased from the Fourth Assessment Report, the coverage is general in scope and limited in length, there is little critical engagement with indigenous knowledge systems, and the historical and contextual complexities of indigenous experiences are largely overlooked. The development of culturally relevant and appropriate adaptation policies requires more robust, nuanced and appropriate inclusion and framing of indigenous issues in future assessment reports, and we outline how this can be achieved.

  5. Emissions from tropical hydropower and the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Tropical dams emit greenhouse gases, which are undercounted in IPCC guidelines. • IPCC comparisons with other energy sources undercount hydroelectric emissions. • GHG inventories must fully count emissions as a basis for negotiating national quotas. • The IPCC needs to reassess emissions from dams independent of the hydropower industry. - Abstract: Tropical hydroelectric emissions are undercounted in national inventories of greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), giving them a role in undermining the effectiveness of as-yet undecided emission limits. These emissions are also largely left out of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, and have been excluded from a revision of the IPCC guidelines on wetlands. The role of hydroelectric dams in emissions inventories and in mitigation has been systematically ignored

  6. Science-policy interaction in the global greenhouse. Institutional design and institutional performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skodvin, Tora

    1999-08-01

    This paper explores the science-policy interaction and the extent to which and how institutional arrangements may be used as instruments for enhancing the effectiveness of the dialog. The first part develops the theory. The point of departure of the analysis is the internal dynamics of science and politics in their pure forms and the nature of the dynamics that are generated when these two distinct systems of behaviour meet. On this basis, then, the question of which functions the institutional apparatus should be able to serve in order to enhance the effectiveness of science-policy dialogue is addressed. This approach is then applied to an empirical case study of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from its establishment in 1988 to the provision of the Second IPCC Assessment Report in 1995. 53 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

  8. IPCC is dead, long live science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Definitely at the counterflow of the climate debate, the author demonstrates that the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, or GIEC in French,) is a piece of trickery which consists in presenting as scientifical a project which is mainly political, and that this trickery is the most incredible one that has market the modern science by the fastness and worldwide dimension of its success. The book is lesson of rigor given by philosophy to science. The author suggests to make a distinction between the debate inside the IPCC, which belongs to exact sciences, and the debate about the IPCC which is of epistemological type, i.e. institutional, logical, methodological. (J.S.)

  9. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  10. Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2014-01-01

    The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

  11. Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

    2016-03-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

  12. Regulating Knowledge Monopolies: The Case of the IPCC

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a new entrant would have to invest time and effort over a longer period to perhaps match the reputation, trust, goodwill, and network of the IPCC. The IPCC is a not-for-profit organization, and it is ...

  13. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the face of increased flood risk responsible authorities have set out safety margins to incorporate climate change impacts in building robust flood infrastructure. Using the case study of four catchments in Ireland, this study subjects such design allowances to a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty inherent in estimates of future flood risk. Uncertainty in flood quantiles is quantified using regionalised climate scenarios derived from a large number of GCMs (17), forced with three SRES emissions scenarios. In terms of hydrological response uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ∼ 20,000 annual maximia series. Sensitivity results show that for low frequency events, the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greater than for more frequent events, with considerable implications for critical infrastructure. Peak flows for the five return periods assessed were found to be less sensitive to temperature and subsequently to potential evaporation (PET) than to rainfall. The average width of the uncertainty range for changes in flood magnitude is greater for low frequency events than for high frequency events. In all catchments there is a progressive increase in the peak flows associated with the 5, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods when moving from the 2020s to the 2080s. - Highlights: → Sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for irish catchments. → Impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with smaller return periods. → Flood peaks are significantly less sensitive to PET than to rainfall scenarios. → A progressive increase in the peak flow for irish river catchment when

  14. Changes of Atmospheric Water Balance over China under the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario Based on RegCM3 Simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Bo; JIANG Da-Bang

    2012-01-01

    Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March–June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

  15. Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2011-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statistical analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.

  16. Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Stock Changes in Agro-ecosystems using CQESTR, DayCent, and IPCC Tier 1 Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to quantify how land use change and management impact soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks because it is often not feasible to use direct measuring methods. Because models are simplifications of reality, it is essential to compare model outputs with measured values to evaluate mode...

  17. Applying IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) land-use projections in a regional assessment of land-use change in the conterminous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherba, J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include global land-use change projections for four global emissions scenarios. These projections are potentially useful for driving regional-scale models needed for informing land-use and management interactions. Here, we applied global gridded RCP land-use projections within a regional-scale state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change in the conterminous United States. First, we cross-walked RCP land-use transition classes to land-use classes more relevant for modeling at the regional scale. Coarse grid RCP land-use transition values were then downscaled to EPA Level III ecoregion boundaries using historical land-use transition data from the USGS Land Cover Trends (LCT) dataset. Downscaled transitions were aggregated to the ecoregion level. Ecoregions were chosen because they represent areas with consistent land-use patterns that have proven useful for studying land-use and management interactions. Ecoregion-level RCP projections were applied in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change between 2005 and 2100 at the 1-km scale. Resulting RCP-based STSM projections were compared to STSM projections created using scenario projections from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the USGS LCT dataset. While most land-use trajectories appear plausible, some transitions such as forest harvest are unreasonable in the context of historical land-use patterns and the socio-economic drivers of change outlined for each scenario. This effort provides a method for using the RCP land-use projections in a wide range of regional scale models. However, further investigation is needed into the performance of RCP land-use projections at the regional scale.

  18. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  19. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

    2013-01-01

    To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

  20. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C.

    2007-02-01

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the “state-of-the-art” of

  1. IPCC SRES revisited: a response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article gives details of the response to the criticism of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and of some aspects of IPCC assessments. The criticism claims that market exchange rates (MER) were used instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) and that scenarios using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in developing regions were flawed. Points raised in the response included that scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER, that the IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, and that long-term emissions are based on more than just economic growth

  2. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Jean; Pipatti, Riitta; Hashimoto, Seiji; Diaz, Cristobal; Mareckova, Katarina; Diaz, Luis; Kjeldsen, Peter; Monni, Suvi; Faaij, Andre; Gao, Qingxian; Zhang, Tianzhu; Ahmed, Mohammed Abdelrafie; Sutamihardja, R T M; Gregory, Robert

    2008-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets. PMID:18338699

  3. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.;

    2008-01-01

    14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental......, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions...

  4. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  5. Emulating IPCC AR4 atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models for projecting global-mean, hemispheric and land/ocean temperatures: MAGICC 6.0

    OpenAIRE

    Meinshausen, M.; RAPER S.c.b.; Wigley, T. M. L.

    2008-01-01

    Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value fo...

  6. IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2007-12-01

    The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures

  7. Social Media in the Changing Ecology of News: The Fourth and Fifth Estate in Britain

    OpenAIRE

    Dutton, William H.; Grant Blank; Nic Newman

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a case study of the changing patterns of news production and consumption in the UK that are being shaped by the Internet and related social media. Theoretically, this focus addresses concern over whether the Internet is undermining the Fourth Estate role of the press in liberal democratic societies. The case study draws from multiple methods, including survey research of individuals in Britain from 2003-2011, analysis of log files of journalistic sites, and interviews with...

  8. Impactos das mudanças climáticas na produção leiteira do estado de Pernambuco: análise para os cenários B2 e A2 do IPCC Impacts of the climate change on regional variation of milk production in the Pernambuco state, Brazil: analysis for the B2 and A2 IPCC scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thieres G. F. Da Silva

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available A partir das informações dos cenários B2 e A2 propostos pelo IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas foram avaliados os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a produção leiteira do Estado de Pernambuco. Para tal fim, foram calculados os valores do índice de temperatura e umidade (ITU, considerando os cenários de temperatura e umidade relativa. Em seguida, foram estimados os dados de declínio da produção de leite (DPL para três níveis de produção (10, 20 e 30 kg animal-1dia-1 e os valores de redução do consumo alimentar (RCA. Verificou-se que os cenários de mudanças climáticas promoveram alterações expressivas nas áreas com possibilidades de criação de vacas leiteiras, inclusive para as principais mesorregiões produtoras do Estado (Garanhuns, Vale do Ipanema e do Ipojuca. Os resultados obtidos auxiliarão produtores e governo na avaliação da vulnerabilidade do sistema de produção, bem como na elaboração de ações de mitigação e de adaptação da pecuária leiteira do Estado de Pernambuco frente aos cenários de mudanças climáticas.Based upon climate projections provided by the B2 and A2 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change scenarios, the impacts of climate change on regional milk production in the Pernambuco State have been evaluated. Thus, the values of the temperature and humidity indexes (THI have been computed considering the temperature and relative humidity modelling projections. Afterwards, the milk production decline (MPD has been estimated for three production levels (10, 20 e 30 kg animal -1day-1. The values of the feed intake reduction (FIR were also calculated. It has been demonstrated that climate change as projected by the A2 and B2 scenarios leads to substantial modifications in the present day areas suitable for livestock, particularly at the main Pernambuco production regions (Garanhuns, Ipanema and Ipojuca Valley. The results may, therefore, help

  9. Social Media in the Changing Ecology of News: The Fourth and Fifth Estate in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William H. Dutton

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of the changing patterns of news production and consumption in the UK that are being shaped by the Internet and related social media. Theoretically, this focus addresses concern over whether the Internet is undermining the Fourth Estate role of the press in liberal democratic societies. The case study draws from multiple methods, including survey research of individuals in Britain from 2003-2011, analysis of log files of journalistic sites, and interviews with journalists. Survey research shows a step-jump in the use of online news since 2003 but a levelling off since 2009. However, the apparent stability in news consumption masks the growing role of social network sites. The analyses show that the Fourth Estate—the institutional news media—is using social media to enhance their role in news production and dissemination. However, networked individuals have used social media to source and distribute their own information in ways that achieve a growing independence from the Fourth Estate journalism. As more information moves online and individuals become routinely linked to the Internet, an emerging Fifth Estate, built on the activities of networked individuals sourcing and distributing their own information, is developing a synergy with the Fourth Estate as each builds on and responds to the other in this new news ecology. Comparative data suggests that this phenomenon is likely to characterize the developing news ecology in other liberal democratic societies as well, but more comparative research is required to establish the validity of this model.

  10. Search for a fourth generation charge -1/3 quark via flavor changing neutral currents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is some likelihood that a light (t) fourth generation charge -1/3 quark (b') would decay predominantly via loop induced flavor changing neutral currents. The charged current decay of b' to charm would be highly Cabibbo suppressed due to the fact that it changes the generation number by two. The D0 experiment has searched for b' pair production where one or both b' quarks decays via b' → b+γ, giving signatures photon + three jets and two photons + two jets. WE don not see a significant excess of such events over background. In both modes, we set an upper limit on the cross section times branching ratio that is sufficient to rule out a standard sequential b' decaying predominantly via FCNC in the mass range mZ/2 b' Z + mb. For b' masses larger than this, the dominant FCNC decay mode is expected to be b' → b + Z. 14 refs., 13 figs., 5 tabs

  11. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  12. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 1: Temperature mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    OpenAIRE

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Martinez, F.; Segura, E.C.

    2006-01-01

    Projections for South America of future climate change conditions in mean state and seasonal cycle for temperature during the twenty-first century are discussed. Our analysis includes one simulation of seven Atmospheric-Ocean Global Circulation Models, which participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B, and B1...

  13. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

  14. Fourth annual progress report for Canada's Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Examples of how greenhouse gas issues are being integrated into management processes within Suncor Energy Inc. are described in this fourth annual progress report to the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry Program. The report covers Suncor's three operating businesses - oil sands and conventional oil exploration and production in Western Canada, and refining and marketing operation in Ontario. Oil sands was the largest source of greenhouse emissions, accounting for 2/3 of the total. Carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 93 per cent of total emissions. This report addresses three areas of change: one of these is Project Millennium in the oil sands division, which is a major expansion project planned for efficiency improvements. As a result of the project, total greenhouse gas emissions will increase to 9.3 million tonnes by the year 2002, in terms of operating efficiency, emissions per unit of production will continue to decline from 0.54 tonnes ECO2 in 1990 to 0.44 tonnes ECO2 in 2002, a reduction of 18 per cent. Another change is that target reductions in the Kyoto Protocol will supersede informal Canadian commitments for the year 2000, if the protocol is ratified. Thirdly, Suncor's greenhouse gas emission forecast has been extended to the year 2002 to demonstrate the impact of Project Millennium and to clarify the changes during the transition period relative to previous forecasts. New initiatives to be undertaken during 1998-2002 include heat recovery in new upgrader units, recycling diluent used in bitumen extraction without cooling, recovery of gas presently going to the flare system, installation of a 200,000 barrel hot water surge tank, addition of a third turbogenerator, and various projects to generate more electrical power internally. tabs., figs

  15. The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change will affect agricultural production. Combining a climate model and a crop growth model furnishes a good approach for analyzing this effect quantitatively. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize phenology in northwest Shandong province under the A1B climate scenario using a regional climate model and the CERES-Maize growth model. The results showed that the temperature would increase significantly during the maize growth season in the study region, that the increased temperature would shorten the maize growth stage and result in a potential yield loss using the current cultivar, and that it is critical to breed a heat-resistant and late-maturing cultivar to maintain the yield

  16. Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  17. Carbon cycle modeling calculations for the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We carried out essentially all the carbon cycle modeling calculations that were required by the IPCC Working Group 1. Specifically, IPCC required two types of calculations, namely, ''inverse calculations'' (input was CO2 concentrations and the output was CO2 emissions), and the ''forward calculations'' (input was CO2 emissions and output was CO2 concentrations). In particular, we have derived carbon dioxide concentrations and/or emissions for several scenarios using our coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling system

  18. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  19. The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BUHE Cholaw(布和朝鲁); Ulrich CUBASCH; LIN Yonghui(林永辉); JI Liren(纪立人)

    2003-01-01

    This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-oceancoupled general circulation nodel. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlargesthe land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation tobe strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increasessignificantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward toNorth China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitationwould increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability ofthe precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.

  20. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  1. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  2. Impactos das mudanças climáticas na produção leiteira do estado de Pernambuco: análise para os cenários B2 e A2 do IPCC Impacts of the climate change on regional variation of milk production in the Pernambuco state, Brazil: analysis for the B2 and A2 IPCC scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Thieres G. F. da Silva; Magna S. B. de Moura; Ivan I. S. Sá; Sérgio Zolnier; Sílvia H. N. Turco; Flávio Justino; José F. A. Do Carmo; Luciana S. B. de Souza

    2009-01-01

    A partir das informações dos cenários B2 e A2 propostos pelo IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudanças Climáticas) foram avaliados os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a produção leiteira do Estado de Pernambuco. Para tal fim, foram calculados os valores do índice de temperatura e umidade (ITU), considerando os cenários de temperatura e umidade relativa. Em seguida, foram estimados os dados de declínio da produção de leite (DPL) para três níveis de produção (10, 20 e 30 kg...

  3. Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

  4. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z

    2007-07-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  5. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

  6. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  7. Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

  8. Who did write the report of the IPCC Group 3?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having briefly recalled the role of each of the groups of the IPCC, this brief document recalls the role of Group 3 (to define strategies aimed at climate change mitigation) and indicates the number of authors of different nationalities for the report published in April 2014. He analyses how these nationalities are distributed for some specific and important chapters. He outlines and denounces the low representation of France among these authors, and notices that some contents are in contradiction with the French energy policy. Somehow consequently, he also criticizes the way this report considers nuclear energy (mining risks, operational risks, civil-military relationship, nuclear waste control)

  9. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  10. Assessing IPCC AR4 Coupled Model Simulations of Late-20th Century Winter Precipitation Over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAfee, S. A.; Russell, J. L.

    2008-12-01

    Consistent with a southward bias in zonal winds in eighteen of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment (IPCC AR4) simulations of the 20th century, model estimates of stormtrack location tend to cluster south of the observed stormtrack, particularly during March and April. There are two mechanisms by which a southward-displaced stormtrack could increase downstream precipitation. The first is by changing the latitudinal distribution of storms. Second, a southward-displaced stormtrack allows storms to develop over warmer sea surfaces, increasing the amount of water they hold. Although they capture the general structure and seasonality of precipitation over North America quite well, IPCC AR4 coupled model simulations of the late-20th century (1979-1999) typically overestimate winter (November to April) precipitation in western North America in comparison to values from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project version 2 (GPCPv2). While there are multiple controls on precipitation amount and distribution, we suspect that a southward bias in zonal wind speeds contributes to the precipitation bias observed in many of the models included in this study. Many of the models in this study show greater overestimates of precipitation to the south than to the north, consistent with a southward bias in stormtrack position. The generally positive bias in precipitation across western North America seen in many of the models suggests that sea-surface temperature may also play a role. As the modeling community moves toward coupled earth system models with dynamic vegetation, the precipitation bias may become a more significant problem. Vegetation types are typically determined by seasonal patterns in temperature and precipitation. Errors of even 25% in precipitation totals may contribute to significant changes in the simulated vegetation and carbon fluxes, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions like the western United States.

  11. IPCC workshop on sea level rise and ice sheet instabilities. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stocker, T.; Dahe, Q.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S.; Midgley, P.

    2010-10-15

    This Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop, organized by Working Group I (WGI), addressed a topic of key importance for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Sea level rise is one of the longest-term consequences of continued increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases and threatens the livelihood of millions of people. While the physical processes that influence sea level changes are well known and established, the uncertainties in the projections of some of the components contributing to sea level rise are still unacceptably high. The largest uncertainty is associated with the response of the large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, and their sensitivity to atmospheric and oceanic warming and changes in precipitation. For these reasons, the IPCC Plenary approved the proposal of WGI to hold an IPCC Workshop very early in the AR5 cycle so that the scientific progress since the last IPCC assessment (IPCC AR4, 2007) could be highlighted for a wider audience and areas of emerging results or major remaining questions could be discussed. The experts attending the Workshop covered a wide range of specialties including in situ and remote sensing observations of ice sheet movement and mass balance, reconstructions and direct observations of past and present sea level changes on regional to global scales, changes in ocean properties and circulation, glacier mass balance and dynamics, simulation of ice sheets and short and long-term climate projections. As sea level change is a truly cross-cutting issue, this workshop offered the opportunity to bring together scientists from research communities that normally tend to interact comparatively little. This Workshop Report contains a concise summary of the overall discussions and conclusions of the Workshop as well as summaries of the discussions in the breakout groups. It further includes the extended abstracts of the keynote presentations and poster abstracts presented during

  12. Bad weather for the IPCC: from Nobel price to affairs, rise and fall of climate experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC, or GIEC in French, has become in 20 years one of the most influent organization in the world. Awarded by the Nobel price of peace in 2007, this expression of the United Nations has succeeded in setting the fight against global warming at the top of the international political agenda, in particular during the 2009 Copenhagen meeting. What are the keys of this success? The IPCC has announced a global warming with disastrous effects, where floods would combine with dryness periods, epidemics and other natural disasters. Such a dark picture cannot leave anyone indifferent and allows the IPCC to encourage the humanity to drastically change its consumption habits and limit its way of life. However, to raise such fears and ask for such sacrifices, an organization like the IPCC must be irreproachable. And here is the problem reported in this book: the IPCC has shown its weaknesses, has made mistakes, has used unappropriated methods and miscasting personnel, has been uncapable to explain the complexness of the climate question and has felt reticent about the recognition of its mistakes. Revealed between fall 2009 and winter 2010, these failures have shaken the credibility of the organization to such a point that the UN requested an expertise to judge its own experts. (J.S.)

  13. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.;

    negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the...... effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences, an......, many of whom have also been contributors to the IPCC reports. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6 , and a transcript of...

  14. The emerging fourth sector

    OpenAIRE

    Friis, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Sector is a new phenomenon related to dual social and financial value creation, until now not clearly defined with crisp sectoral boundaries and an operationalized definition. The phenomenon is getting increased attention in media, conferences, business schools and by organizations all over the world, and this study intends to explain the macroenvironmental changes that led to the rise of the fourth sector, describe new trends of social value creation in the private ...

  15. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  16. WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES IN LIGHT OF THE IPCC SREX (2011 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JÁNOS MIKA

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate extremes in light of the IPCC SREX (2011 and beyond. The recent IPCC Special Report (IPCC SREX, 2011 provides a comprehensive overview of meteorological (i.e. weather and climate extremes and their various aspects. The present paper reflects the core concepts of the Report, clarifying the relations of the natural and anthropogenic factors causing meteorological extremes, as well, as condition determining the risks and general ways of response by the society. The paper can only add some recent statistics to this scheme on various aspects of meteorological and non-meteorological reasons of natural disasters. The paper argues, however, the still unclear definition of the extremes and their classification as weather and climate extremes. We also dedicate a sub-Section to the statistical and physical considerations on how the extremes may change parallel to the global warming. Another sub-Section refers to further difficulties that hamper the empirical establishment of the trends in the meteorological extremes. Finally we overview the IPCC AR4 (2007 conclusions on some meteorological extremes, since the detailed Chapters of the IPCC SREX (2011 Report were not available by the time of writing the paper, but from its SPM no difference in the statements and even its uncertainties can be established since the AR4.

  17. Evaluating the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate likelihood information in IPCC reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Adam

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prescribes that the communication of risk and uncertainty information pertaining to scientific reports, model predictions etc. be communicated with a set of 7 likelihood expressions. These range from "Extremely likely" (intended to communicate a likelihood of greater than 99%) through "As likely as not" (33-66%) to "Extremely unlikely" (less than 1%). Psychological research has investigated the degree to which these expressions are interpreted as intended by the IPCC, both within and across cultures. I will present a selection of this research and demonstrate some problems associated with communicating likelihoods in this way, as well as suggesting some potential improvements.

  18. Effects of Conceptual Change Texts and Laboratory Experiments on Fourth Grade Students' Understanding of Matter and Change Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durmus, Jale; Bayraktar, Sule

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether conceptual change texts and laboratory experiments are effective in overcoming misconceptions and whether the concepts were acquired permanently when these methods were utilized. In this study, we addressed some topics from the "Matter and Change" unit in science and technology class of…

  19. The IPCC in an age of social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickman, Leo

    2015-04-01

    How should the IPCC communicate its findings, not just to policymakers, but to a wider audience? In today's online environment, readers demand an open and transparent interaction, but the responses must be both rapid and authoritative. As the IPCC debates its future, it must be bold in engaging with social media.

  20. Exploring the impact of the IPCC Assessment Reports on science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Heimeriks, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Even though critique to IPCC is certainly not new, the climate controversies of 2009 and 2010 brought this critique again to the fore in public media. The paper contributes to this ongoing debate, and investigates empirically the impact of the four Assessment Reports of the IPCC on scientific public

  1. Forced annular variations in the 20th century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, R. L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Shindell, D. T.

    2006-09-01

    We examine the annular mode within each hemisphere (defined here as the leading empirical orthogonal function and principal component of hemispheric sea level pressure) as simulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report ensembles of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The simulated annular patterns exhibit a high spatial correlation with the observed patterns during the late 20th century, though the mode represents too large a percentage of total temporal variability within each hemisphere. In response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols, the multimodel average exhibits a positive annular trend in both hemispheres, with decreasing sea level pressure (SLP) over the pole and a compensating increase in midlatitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, the trend agrees in sign but is of smaller amplitude than that observed during recent decades. In the Southern Hemisphere, decreasing stratospheric ozone causes an additional reduction in Antarctic surface pressure during the latter half of the 20th century. While annular trends in the multimodel average are positive, individual model trends vary widely. Not all models predict a decrease in high-latitude SLP, although no model exhibits an increase. As a test of the models' annular sensitivity, the response to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is calculated during the winter following five major tropical eruptions. The observed response exhibits coupling between stratospheric anomalies and annular variations at the surface, similar to the coupling between these levels simulated elsewhere by models in response to increasing GHG concentration. The multimodel average is of the correct sign but significantly smaller in magnitude than the observed annular anomaly. This suggests that the models underestimate the coupling of stratospheric changes to annular variations at the surface and may not simulate the full response to increasing GHGs.

  2. A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Katharine J; Freeman, Patrick T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Field, Christopher B

    2016-08-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain. PMID:27532046

  3. Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

  4. Global Income Distribution and Poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) has been widely used to analyze climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The storylines behind these scenarios outline alternative development pathways, which have been the base for climate research and other studies at global, regional and country level. Based on the global income distribution and poverty module (GlobPov), we assess the implication of the IPCC SRES scenarios on global poverty and inequality. We find that global po...

  5. Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

  6. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  7. South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

    OpenAIRE

    Dube, Sikhalazo; Scholes, Robert J; Nelson, Gerald C.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Palazzo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to ove...

  8. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  9. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  10. Data Infrastructures for the next IPCC report: A European Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockhause, M.; Lautenschlager, M.; Lawrence, B.; Kindermann, S.; Toussaint, F.

    2010-12-01

    Climate data and especially data of climate projections of Earth System Models play a key role for the investigation of climate change impacts and for the derivation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. The user community grows from the original climate research community into a heterogeneous climate community with diverse requirements for data and data related services. The next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5) will provide a large dataset of high quality for earth system and impact researchers as well as for decision makers. A data infrastructure has been established to serve climate model data and information. It is based on the Earth System Grid (ESG) infrastructure and data will be distributed through the ESG gateway hosted by PCMDI. A subset of data will be replicated among the ESG Federation partners PCMDI, BADC (British Atmospheric Data Centre) and WDCC (World Data Center for Climate). Compared with IPCC-AR4 the data infrastructure is extended by two components as European contributions: technical-statistical data quality checks (supervised by WDCC) and comprehensive scientific metadata (supervised by BADC). Quality control procedures are applied to the replicated subset of the available IPCC data. They consist of the statistical evaluation of data (level 2) and the STD-DOI publication process (level 3). After receiving the final approval by the author the data is assigned a persistent identifier (DOI/URN), i.e. the data is frozen and uniquely citable in scientific publications. Optionally, a peer-reviewed publication in a data journal like ESSD (Earth System Science Data) or alike is supported, which can be entered in scientists lists of publications. Comprehensive scientific metadata on experiments, simulations, models, and quality is provided by the Common Information Model developed by Metafor (Common Metadata for Climate Modelling). This information is introduced in the IPCC infrastructure through a web

  11. Summary of the Fourth Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and of the Activities of The International Nuclear Forum in Buenos Aires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Fourth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change was concluded on 14 November 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Unlike Kyoto in 1997, this conference was on a smaller scale and was convened as a technical work session, its aim being to produce a plan of action and a timetable for a programme of work for the next two years. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the conference and looks at the way in which the International Nuclear Forum organized the nuclear industry's representation. In particular, the paper assesses the impact of the nuclear industry's message regarding the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions, and goes on to consider what lessons can be reached for raising the industry's profile at future climate change conferences. (author)

  12. Strategic Change in Higher Education Libraries with the Advent of the Digital Library during the Fourth Decade of Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Mel

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: This paper sets out to review how the business of libraries in higher education has changed with the impact of the digital library during the latest decade of Program, in which the content of the journal swung decisively from being primarily about library management systems to primarily being about digital library issues.…

  13. Run-based multi-model interannual variability assessment of precipitation and temperature over Pakistan using two IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmat, U.; Athar, H.

    2015-09-01

    The interannual variability of precipitation and temperature is derived from all runs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report (AR4)-based two Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations, over Pakistan, on an annual basis. The models are the CM2.0 and CM2.1 versions of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-based AOGCM. Simulations for a recent 22-year period (1979-2000) are validated using Climate Research Unit (CRU) and NCEP/NCAR datasets over Pakistan, for the first time. The study area of Pakistan is divided into three regions: all Pakistan, northern Pakistan, and southern Pakistan. Bias, root mean square error, one sigma standard deviation, and coefficient of variance are used as validation metrics. For all Pakistan and northern Pakistan, all three runs of GFDL-CM2.0 perform better under the above metrics, both for precipitation and temperature (except for one sigma standard deviation and coefficient of variance), whereas for southern Pakistan, third run of GFDL-CM2.1 perform better expect for the root mean square error for temperature. A mean and variance-based bias correction is applied to bias in modeled precipitation and temperature variables. This resulted in a reduced bias, except for the months of June, July, and August, when the reduction in bias is relatively lower.

  14. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

  15. Future Drying of the Southern Amazon Projected by IPCC Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B.; Yoon, J.; Zeng, N.

    2012-04-01

    Many subtropical regions are expected to become drier due to climate change. This will lead to reduced vegetation which may in turn amplify the initial drying. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model with a dynamic vegetation component that predicts surface albedo change, here we simulate the climate change from 1901 to 2099 with CO2 and other forcings. In a standard IPCC-style simulation, the model simulated an increase in the world's 'warm desert' area of 2.5 million km2 or 10% at the end of the 21st century. In a more realistic simulation where the vegetation-albedo feedback was allowed to interact, the 'warm desert' area expands by 8.5 million km2 or 34%. This occurs mostly as an expansion of the world's major subtropical deserts such as the Sahara, the Kalahari, the Gobi, and the Great Sandy Desert. It is suggested that vegetation-albedo feedback should be fully included in IPCC future climate projections.

  16. Petro-Canada's progress 1998 : fourth annual report in support of Canada's climate change Voluntary Challenge and Registry program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petro-Canada is working with industry, environmental groups and with governments to define and implement measures to address the issue of climate change. This report describes the many voluntary measures that the company is taking within its own operations to achieve long-term emissions reductions. Petro-Canada is also an active participant in the Voluntary Challenge and Registry program which it has been supporting since its inception in 1995. This 1998 progress report outlines progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, future energy and emissions reduction goals, and the strategy to meet those goals. In 1997 the company reduced total greenhouse gas emissions by 2.8 per cent despite a 1.1 per cent increase in production of oil, natural gas and refined products. Petro-Canada has also set minimum energy efficiency targets of at least a one per cent improvement per year for both the upstream and downstream sectors. Reductions in 1997 were well ahead of these targets. Among major initiatives undertaken in 1997, Petro-Canada entered into a joint venture with Iogen Corp. of Ottawa to develop a promising alternative fuel technology. The process produces ethanol from biomass using bioengineered enzymes, with very low greenhouse gas emissions over the full life cycle of production and use. Petro-Canada provides funding for continuing research and development, and for construction of a plant in Ottawa to demonstrate the commercial potential of the process. 10 tabs., 9 figs., 1 appendix

  17. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment

  18. South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H; Hamilton, K; Sperber, K R

    2005-09-07

    In this paper we use the extensive integrations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to examine the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales. We begin with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the 20th century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.0, GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1, MRI, and MPI{_}ECHAM5) exhibit a robust ENSO-monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of simulated El Nino itself. We find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker Circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal timescales. The overall magnitude and timescale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations

  19. Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

    2015-10-01

    Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

  20. Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

  1. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5 in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Brabo Alves

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20 and future projections of the AR4 (A2 and AR5 (RCP8.5 experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5 in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  2. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5) in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, José; Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco; Chaves, Rosane; Silva, Emerson; Servain, Jacques; Costa, Alexandre; Sombra, Sérgio; Barbosa, Augusto; Dos Santos, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20) and future projections of the AR4 (A2) and AR5 (RCP8.5) experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5) in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn) in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  3. The fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    ""This is an invigorating book, a short but spirited slalom for the mind."" - Timothy Ferris, The New York Times Book Review ""Highly readable. One is reminded of the breadth and depth of Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach."" - Science""Anyone with even a minimal interest in mathematics and fantasy will find The Fourth Dimension informative and mind-dazzling... [Rucker] plunges into spaces above three with a zest and energy that is breathtaking."" - Martin Gardner ""Those who think the fourth dimension is nothing but time should be encouraged to read The Fourth Dimension, along with anyone else

  4. A model of enteric fermentation in dairy cows to estimate methane emission for the Dutch National Inventory Report using the IPCC Tier 3 approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bannink, A.; Schijndel, van M.W.; Dijkstra, J.

    2011-01-01

    The protocol for the National Inventory of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in The Netherlands includes a dynamic and mechanistic model of animal digestion and fermentation as an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 approach to estimate enteric CH4 emission by dairy cows. The

  5. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  6. Fourth Generation Reactor Concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Concerns over energy resources availability, climate changes and energy supply security suggest an important role for nuclear energy in future energy supplies. So far nuclear energy evolved through three generations and is still evolving into new generation that is now being extensively studied. Nuclear Power Plants are producing 16% of the world's electricity. Today the world is moving towards hydrogen economy. Nuclear technologies can provide energy to dissociate water into oxygen and hydrogen and to production of synthetic fuel from coal gasification. The introduction of breeder reactors would turn nuclear energy from depletable energy supply into an unlimited supply. From the early beginnings of nuclear energy in the 1940s to the present, three generations of nuclear power reactors have been developed: First generation reactors: introduced during the period 1950-1970. Second generation: includes commercial power reactors built during 1970-1990 (PWR, BWR, Candu, Russian RBMK and VVER). Third generation: started being deployed in the 1990s and is composed of Advanced LWR (ALWR), Advanced BWR (ABWR) and Passive AP600 to be deployed in 2010-2030. Future advances of the nuclear technology designs can broaden opportunities for use of nuclear energy. The fourth generation reactors are expected to be deployed by 2030 in time to replace ageing reactors built in the 1970s and 1980s. The new reactors are to be designed with a view of the following objectives: economic competitiveness, enhanced safety, minimal radioactive waste production, proliferation resistance. The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) was established in January 2000 to investigate innovative nuclear energy system concepts. GIF members include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Euratom, France Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States with the IAEA and OECD's NEA as permanent observers. China and Russia are expected to join the GIF initiative. The following six systems

  7. Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

  8. Floods in Mekong Delta Under Sea-Level Rise Projections By IPCC AR5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, H.

    2014-12-01

    One of the mightiest rivers in the planet, the Mekong ranks 10th amongst the world's great rivers on the basis of mean annual flow at the mouth. It flows southwards over a distance of approximately 4,800 km from its source to the sea, through six different countries: China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. This great basin has been considered to be one of the most sensitive areas in the world to climate change. The present paper investigates fluvial flood hazards in urban areas in the Mekong Delta to inundation due to seasonal flooding, a phenomenon which is likely to be exacerbated by future sea-level rise. Unlike past researches which mainly focus on flooding due to river discharge from upstream or heavy precipitation, the present paper scrutinizes the influence of ocean tides. The research reveals that ocean tides predominantly determine water elevation even in an upstream location such as Can Tho City, 80 km inland from the river mouth, and that the river flow causes tidal damping and effectively reduces the energy of the incoming tides. This tidal damping is especially pronounced during the rainy season. Analysis based on the water levels monitored by the Mekong River Commission reveals that the ground near the riverbank of Can Tho had experienced inundation for a total of 215 hours between July 2009 and June 2010 (2.5% of the time over a one year period). It is also shown that inundation reached up to a maximum height of 47 cm above the roads of Can Tho downtown in this one-year period. Assuming two scenarios of sea-level rise of 25 cm in the middle of the 21st century and 60 cm in the end of the century, all based on the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) projections, it was found that the duration of inundation will be prolonged from the present percentage of 2.5% to 7.5% and 24% of the year, respectively. It is important to note that while at present this flooding is seasonal and limited, in the

  9. Fourth-rank cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some cosmological implications of the recently proposed fourth-rank theory of gravitation are studied. The model exhibits the possibility of being free from the horizon and flatness problems at the price of introducing a negative pressure. The field equations we obtain are compatible with kobs=0 and Ωobstclas approx. 1020tPlanck approx. 10-23s. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. Hence, an interpretation of the negative pressure hypothesis is provided. (author). 8 refs

  10. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  11. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  12. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  13. Searching for the fourth family quarks through anomalous decays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The flavor democracy hypothesis predicts the existence of the fourth standard model family. Because of the high masses of the fourth family quarks, their anomalous decays could be dominant if certain criteria are met. This will drastically change the search strategy at hadron colliders. We show that the fourth standard model family down quarks with masses up to 400-450 GeV can be observed (or excluded) via anomalous decays by Tevatron.

  14. A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  15. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  16. Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

  17. A comparison of changes model produced temperature and precipitation extremes with observed changes for the 20th Century and Simulated Changes for the 21st Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, D. R.; Gleason, B.; Vose, R. S.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2006-12-01

    Observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes for the latter half of the 20th century generally show increases in warm temperature extremes, decreases in cold extremes, and increases in heavy precipitation events (Alexander et al. 2006). Here we use daily values from a general circulation model simulation for the 20th century using observed greenhouse gas and other forcings produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the definition of extremes found in Alexander et al. (2006) as well as other extremes to compare how changes in the model-produced extremes compare to the changes in observed extremes. The model used is the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Climate Model 2.1. We also examine how these temperature and precipitation extremes change in simulations produced using two 21st century forcing scenarios. Alexander, L., et al., 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., D05109,doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.

  18. Time Series of Aerosol Column Optical Depth at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Fourth Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C Flynn; AS Koontz; JH Mather

    2009-09-01

    The uncertainties in current estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are dominated by the effects of aerosols, both in relation to the direct absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols and also with respect to aerosol-related changes in cloud formation, longevity, and microphysics (See Figure 1; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 4, 2008). Moreover, the Arctic region in particular is especially sensitive to changes in climate with the magnitude of temperature changes (both observed and predicted) being several times larger than global averages (Kaufman et al. 2009). Recent studies confirm that aerosol-cloud interactions in the arctic generate climatologically significant radiative effects equivalent in magnitude to that of green house gases (Lubin and Vogelmann 2006, 2007). The aerosol optical depth is the most immediate representation of the aerosol direct effect and is also important for consideration of aerosol-cloud interactions, and thus this quantity is essential for studies of aerosol radiative forcing.

  19. The German contribution to the IPCC/AR5 (CMIP5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glushak, K.; Legutke, S.; Hollweg, H.-D.; Wegner, J.; Widmann, H.; Fieg, K.; Lautenschlager, M.; Giorgetta, M.; Jungclaus, J.; Reick, C.

    2012-04-01

    The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is enabling a comprehensive and systematic evaluation and intercomparison of Earth system models (ESM), run in a standardised configuration and responding to standardised forcing. The CMIP5 experiments based on the ESM developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM) are performed at the DKRZ using the modeling environment IMDI. IMDI was developed at DKRZ and is adapted to the specific needs of MPI-ESM and the requirements given by the CMIP5 protocol. IMDI offers many benefits, such as flexibility in model and experiment configuration and the possibility to run single workflow steps simultaneously or serial. Special workflow steps were implemented for CMIP5 experiments, for example online monitoring and automated quality control of output data, in order to enable the parallel performance of multiple experiments producing huge amounts of data. The global climate-change experiments were divided into three groups: past-climate experiments, simulations over the historical period and future climate projections (near-term and long-term), and diagnostic experiments. The latter two groups were calculated with two MPI-ESM versions. The main differences are higher vertical resolution in the atmosphere and higher horizontal resolution in the ocean model. A large set of experiments was dedicated to explore the issue of decadal prediction. The model output was processed according to the CMIP5 data protocol requirements in order to be later accepted by the ESG (Earth System Grid) archive of CMIP5. During this process CMOR software provided by PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison) was used. The data volume contributing to the IPCC AR5 data base amounts to about 60 TB. Our poster describes the workflow starting with the model compilation and ending with the publication of the model results in the ESG. It demonstrates the extent and comprehensiveness of the German CMIP5 effort.

  20. Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.; Jung, M.; Maignan, F.; McCabe, M. F.; Reichle, R.; Reichstein, M.; Rodell, M.; Sheffield, J.; Teuling, A. J.; Wang, K.; Wood, E. F.; Zhang, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Quantification of global land evapotranspiration (ET) has long been associated with large uncertainties due to the lack of reference observations. Several recently developed products now provide the capacity to estimate ET at global scales. These products, partly based on observational data, include satellite ]based products, land surface model (LSM) simulations, atmospheric reanalysis output, estimates based on empirical upscaling of eddycovariance flux measurements, and atmospheric water balance datasets. The LandFlux-EVAL project aims to evaluate and compare these newly developed datasets. Additionally, an evaluation of IPCC AR4 global climate model (GCM) simulations is presented, providing an assessment of their capacity to reproduce flux behavior relative to the observations ]based products. Though differently constrained with observations, the analyzed reference datasets display similar large-scale ET patterns. ET from the IPCC AR4 simulations was significantly smaller than that from the other products for India (up to 1 mm/d) and parts of eastern South America, and larger in the western USA, Australia and China. The inter-product variance is lower across the IPCC AR4 simulations than across the reference datasets in several regions, which indicates that uncertainties may be underestimated in the IPCC AR4 models due to shared biases of these simulations.

  1. Analyse af IPCC delrapport 2 - Effekter, klimatilpasning og sårbarhed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Grindsted, Aslak; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Jeppesen, Erik; Madsen, Henrik; Olesen, Jørgen E; Porter, John Roy; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Olesen, Martin

    FN’s klimapanel (IPCC) beskriver i 5. hovedrapport den videnskabelige status på den aktuelle viden om klimaændringer og de potentielle miljømæssige og samfundsøkonomiske konsekvenser. Hovedrapporten består af tre delrapporter, hvoraf delrapport 2 beskriver klimaeffekter, sårbarhed og tilpasning. ...

  2. Drawing Boundaries: Boundary Arrangements of the IPCC Working Groups

    OpenAIRE

    van Eck, Christel

    2016-01-01

    The present research investigates how the IPCC’s Working Groups safeguard their scientific character while communicating with policymakers. Due to the different nature of Working Groups’ assessments, all Working Groups make different boundary arrangements of how science is defined; what is considered as relevant knowledge; and what the division of labor is amongst Working Groups. The results show that science is a context-specific activity in a constantly changing landscape, which in turn aff...

  3. Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

    2014-05-01

    As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

  4. A brief overview of the IPCC second assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are still rising and thus increasing the positive radiative forcing of climate. This tends to warm the surface of the earth and to bring about other associated changes in the earth's climate. The slow-down that was observed during 1990-1993 in carbon dioxide's rate of increase has come to an end. The enhanced concentrations of tropospheric aerosols (dust and other small particles in the lower atmosphere) resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels, biomass burning and other sources cause some negative forcing (both directly and indirectly). This forcing is not uniform world-wide but is felt in particular regions and subcontinental areas where aerosols are present. At the local level it can be large enough to more than offset the positive forcing due to greenhouse gases. On the continental-to-hemispheric scale it affects climate change patterns. Aerosols reduce the enhanced global radiative forcing caused by greenhouse gases by about one third (ranging between 20 and 40%).

  5. Fourth Light at Paranal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-01

    VLT YEPUN Joins ANTU, KUEYEN and MELIPAL It was a historical moment last night (September 3 - 4, 2000) in the VLT Control Room at the Paranal Observatory , after nearly 15 years of hard work. Finally, four teams of astronomers and engineers were sitting at the terminals - and each team with access to an 8.2-m telescope! From now on, the powerful "Paranal Quartet" will be observing night after night, with a combined mirror surface of more than 210 m 2. And beginning next year, some of them will be linked to form part of the unique VLT Interferometer with unparalleled sensitivity and image sharpness. YEPUN "First Light" Early in the evening, the fourth 8.2-m Unit Telescope, YEPUN , was pointed to the sky for the first time and successfully achieved "First Light". Following a few technical exposures, a series of "first light" photos was made of several astronomical objects with the VLT Test Camera. This instrument was also used for the three previous "First Light" events for ANTU ( May 1998 ), KUEYEN ( March 1999 ) and MELIPAL ( January 2000 ). These images served to evaluate provisionally the performance of the new telescope, mainly in terms of mechanical and optical quality. The ESO staff were very pleased with the results and pronounced YEPUN fit for the subsequent commissioning phase. When the name YEPUN was first given to the fourth VLT Unit Telescope, it was supposed to mean "Sirius" in the Mapuche language. However, doubts have since arisen about this translation and a detailed investigation now indicates that the correct meaning is "Venus" (as the Evening Star). For a detailed explanation, please consult the essay On the Meaning of "YEPUN" , now available at the ESO website. The first images At 21:39 hrs local time (01:39 UT), YEPUN was turned to point in the direction of a dense Milky Way field, near the border between the constellations Sagitta (The Arrow) and Aquila (The Eagle). A guide star was acquired and the active optics system quickly optimized the

  6. The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2011-06-01

    Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

  7. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  8. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  9. Development of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cattle from Benin using IPCC Tier 2 methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouazounde, J B; Gbenou, J D; Babatounde, S; Srivastava, N; Eggleston, S H; Antwi, C; Baah, J; McAllister, T A

    2015-03-01

    The objective of this study was to develop emission factors (EF) for methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation in cattle native to Benin. Information on livestock characteristics and diet practices specific to the Benin cattle population were gathered from a variety of sources and used to estimate EF according to Tier 2 methodology of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Most cattle from Benin are Bos taurus represented by Borgou, Somba and Lagune breeds. They are mainly multi-purpose, being used for production of meat, milk, hides and draft power and grazed in open pastures and crop lands comprising tropical forages and crops. Estimated enteric CH4 EFs varied among cattle breeds and subcategory owing to differences in proportions of gross energy intake expended to meet maintenance, production and activity. EFs ranged from 15.0 to 43.6, 16.9 to 46.3 and 24.7 to 64.9 kg CH4/head per year for subcategories of Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. Average EFs for cattle breeds were 24.8, 29.5 and 40.2 kg CH4/head per year for Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. The national EF for cattle from Benin was 39.5 kg CH4/head per year. This estimated EF was 27.4% higher than the default EF suggested by IPCC for African cattle with the exception of dairy cattle. The outcome of the study underscores the importance of obtaining country-specific EF to estimate global enteric CH4 emissions. PMID:25385068

  10. Using pan-tropical biomass maps to improve IPCC Tier 1 default level emission factors - a case study for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langner, Andreas; Achard, Frédéric; Grassi, Giacomo

    2014-05-01

    The IPCC proposes three Tier levels for greenhouse gas emission monitoring with a hierarchical order in terms of accuracy as well as data requirements/complexity. While Tier 1 provides default above-ground biomass (AGB) values per ecological zone and continent, Tier 2 and 3 are either based on country-specific remote sensing or permanent sample-plot data. Due to missing capacities most developing countries have to rely on Tier 1 default values, which show highest uncertainties. Furthermore, IPCC Tier 1 values lack transparency as they are based on a variety of studies that have been repeatedly updated and combined with expert opinions, thus blurring the original data sources. A possible way to increase credibility is a conservative monitoring approach, following the principle of conservativeness, thus reducing the likelihood of unjustified payments for emission reductions not reflecting reality. For the implementation of that principle knowledge about the distribution of the biomass within each ecological zone is essential. However, such information is not available for the IPCC Tier 1 values, which only provide mean values and/or AGB ranges that are not based on a common statistical analysis. Using the pan-tropical datasets of Saatchi et al (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108, 9899-9904, 2011; 1km spatial resolution) and Baccini et al (Nat Climate Change, 2:182-185, 2012; 500m spatial resolution) we calculated the mean AGB values as well as their 50% confidence intervals for each ecological zone within the DRC using Globcover2009 as forest/non-forest mask and the FAO ecological zones dataset. Such analysis is more transparent while at the same time leading to "statistically improved" Tier 1 values, potentially allowing a conservative monitoring approach by selecting the lower bound of the confidence interval for emission estimation during the reference period and the higher bound for the assessment period. Within the DRC Baccini generally delivers higher AGB estimates

  11. Inconsistencies and Fallacies: IPCC 20th Century Simulations, Multi-Model Ensembles and Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, N. L.

    2009-12-01

    The IPCC used an experiment that had approximately 20 different climate models fit the temperature history of the 20th century. A remarkably good and convincing fit was obtained by combining selected models into a multi-model ensemble. This may be seen in figure 9.5 of the AR4 Scientific Basis report. The fallacy is that each modeling group used different forcings, effectively simulating a different imaginary planet. Since the IPCC models differ by more than 2-1 in climate sensitivity it would be quite amazing if they could all agree on temperature in the late 20th century when CO2 was rapidly increasing. Allowing each model to be excited by different forcings effectively makes the model be a rather complicated curve fitting program. If one accepts that the models are being used to do curve fitting then the supposedly better results obtained by averaging multiple models is easily explainable as the reduction of error that results from averaging approximations to a function with uncorrelated errors. Finally the late 20th century temperature rise is too small for a 3 degree climate sensitivity for doubling of CO2 and the explanations for the warming shortfall that rely on aerosol cooling or ocean warming are easily refuted.There may be alternative explanations for the shortfall or it may be that climate sensitivity is much lower than projected by the IPCC.

  12. “管理极端气候事件和灾害风险特别报告”对我国的启示%The Implications on China' s Disaster Prevention and Mitigation from IPCC Special Report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘冰; 薛澜

    2012-01-01

    政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最新发布的"管理极端气候事件和灾害风险促进气候变化适应特别报告决策者摘要(SREX)"从"极端气候事件+脆弱性+暴露程度"的角度剖析了灾害风险的根源,综合考虑了气候、环境、社会经济条件等因素,提出了管理灾害风险和适应气候变化的各种政策选项,对于我国把风险管理纳入应对气候变化行动的整体框架提供了重要的科学依据。本文基于特别报告的主要结论,结合我国防灾减灾工作的实际情况,提出加快社会经济发展、实现社会系统重构、发挥政策协同效应是今后防灾减灾工作的重要着力点。%The newly issued Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) analyzes the root of disaster risks from three perspectives of "extreme climate events, vulnerability and exposure". It considers factors such as climatic, environmental and socio - economic conditions, and puts forward various policy options for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. This report provides scientific evidence for integrating risk management into the action framework of addressing climate change in China. This article provides a synthesis of the main conclusions of the report. Based on the actual situation of China' s disaster prevention and reduction efforts, the article makes several policy recommendations, including 1 ) speeding up socio - economic development, 2) promoting social and institutional innovation and transformation, and 3 ) developing policy synergy across different policy arenas related to disaster prevention and reduction.

  13. Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

    2012-09-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

  14. The handshake between the integrated assessment and climate modeling communities: IPCC AR5 as a catalyst for improved networking, collaboration and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Meehl, G.; Edmonds, J.; Nakićenović, N.; Lamarque, J.; Rose, S.; van Vuuren, D.; Moss, R.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2009-12-01

    In the wake of AR4, it was clear that there needed to be a much more proactive modeling strategy for the climate modeling community. In 2006 a series of conversations were initiated within the global environmental change communities about how to approach a modeling strategy for the next IPCC assessment (AR5). At that time, the idea of developing both a near- and long- term experimental design that addressed questions around carbon cycle diagnostics, Earth system predictability as well as inertia of the climate system were introduced. From these discussions, a joint meeting was held in Aspen, Colorado (Aspen Global Change Institute) that included both the climate and integrated assessment modeling communities as well as representatives from the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) research groups. Many activities have been spawned from this initial set of conversations, including the development, for the first time ever, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) which are a set of four radiative forcing pathways, of which three include, for the first time ever in IPCC history, mitigation for stabilization of greenhouse gasses and radiative forcings (mitigation scenarios include two stabilization and one overshoot and decline), a land use/land cover and emissions harmonization between integrated assessment and climate modeling communities as well as the near-term prediction experiment designed to address model skill in predictability, downscaling, extreme events, air quality, etc.. The consensus development of the RCPs provided an initial motivation for closer collaboration between the ESM, IAM and IAV communities towards the development of New Scenarios that were driven by the scientific communities and not the IPCC. These collaborations are leading to greater mutual understanding of modeling paradigms and strengthening ties with integrated assessment, climate and emissions inventory and modeling communities.

  15. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  16. Response of hydrological processes to climate change in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, X.; Cui, X.; Yu, J.; Sun, W.

    2015-05-01

    According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in the future. As a sensitive region to climate change, hydrological process in the middle reaches of the Yellow River will be significantly affected by climate change. In this study, water resources change in the future for a typical basin there: Lushi basin is assessed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Downscaled ensemble output from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s was input to SWAT as the regional climate change scenario. The prediction shows that ET of this basin increases in winter and spring, and decreases in summer and autumn, and the streamflow increases throughout the year. The increased streamflow will probably improve the water demand guarantee and be conducive to crop growth in winter and spring, and may improve the flood risk in summer.

  17. Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

  18. Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

  19. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  20. THE FOURTH STATE OF WATER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Savich

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The fourth state of water is aqueous vapor which, under power action of magnetic-field strength at Curie point at the moment of magnetic phase transition, acquires properties of ferroelectric plasma. The latter is the basis of origination of such natural phenomena as a thunderstorm cloud and a ball lightning capable of releasing, under certain conditions, lightning strokes and, during explosion, plenty of thermal energy, which is typical of a low-temperature reactor.

  1. The Fourth Microlensing Planet Revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Yock, Philip

    2015-01-01

    The fourth microlensing planet, otherwise known as OGLE-2005-BLG-169Lb, was discovered by a collaboration of US, NZ, Polish and UK astronomers in 2005-2006. Recently the results were confirmed by the Hubble Space Telescope and by the Keck Observatory. OGLE-2005-BLG-169Lb is the first microlensing planet to receive such confirmation. Its discovery and confirmation are described here in an historical context.

  2. Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

    2015-04-01

    The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

  3. Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baer, P. G.

    2012-12-01

    One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The

  4. Stratospheric Temperature Changes and Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yongyun; XIA Yan; GAO Mei; LU Daren

    2009-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3) used in the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.

  5. Search for the fourth standard model family

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the standard model (SM) and the actual mass spectrum of the third family fermions. We discuss possible manifestations of the fourth SM family at existing and future colliders. The LHC and Tevatron potentials to discover the fourth SM family have been compared. The scenario with dominance of the anomalous decay modes of the fourth-family quarks has been considered in detail.

  6. Scientific Uncertainty is Information: The Case of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J.

    2013-12-01

    Opponents of climate policy frequently present scientific uncertainty as a reason to delay action, whereas proponents often downplay uncertainty to undermine that excuse. While it is true that we know enough to act, it is also true that there are key uncertainties that must be considered in devising effective policy. Reflecting this fact, the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that 'Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation...' Risk was devised as a framework for processing information about uncertainty into guidelines for action. The benefits of climate policy are examined in light of the characterized uncertainty around the equilibrium climate sensitivity and this information is placed into a risk-management context for climate policy. Characterized uncertainty reveals that relatively severe outcomes (righthand side of vertical dashed line) are more probably than relatively mild outcomes (left of vertical line). Moreover, the fat tail of uncertainty implies that risk can be essentially infinite.

  7. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  8. The fourth Board of Governors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency at its fourth regular session, which was held in Vienna from 20 September to 1 October 1960, elected five Member States to serve a two-year term on the Agency's Board of Governors. The five were Argentina, El Salvador, the Federal Republic of Germany, Iraq and Thailand. The new members succeed Indonesia, the Netherlands, Peru, the United Arab Republic and Venezuela, which were elected for a two-year term by the second session of the General Conference in 1958

  9. Fourth order deformed general relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuttell, Peter D.; Sakellariadou, Mairi

    2014-11-01

    Whenever the condition of anomaly freedom is imposed within the framework of effective approaches to loop quantum cosmology, one seems to conclude that a deformation of general covariance is required. Here, starting from a general deformation we regain an effective gravitational Lagrangian including terms up to fourth order in extrinsic curvature. We subsequently constrain the form of the corrections for the homogeneous case, and then investigate the conditions for the occurrence of a big bounce and the realization of an inflationary era, in the presence of a perfect fluid or scalar field.

  10. The fourth dimension simply explained

    CERN Document Server

    Manning, Henry P

    2005-01-01

    To remove the contents of an egg without puncturing its shell or to drink the liquor in a bottle without removing the cork is clearly unthinkable - or is it? Understanding the world of Einstein and curved space requires a logical conception of the fourth dimension.This readable, informative volume provides an excellent introduction to that world, with 22 essays that employ a minimum of mathematics. Originally written for a contest sponsored by Scientific American, these essays are so well reasoned and lucidly written that they were judged to merit publication in book form. Their easily unders

  11. The Super-Fast Chemistry Mechanism for IPCC AR5 Simulations with CCSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Prather, M. J.; Lamarque, J.; Hess, P. G.; Connell, P. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Vitt, F. M.

    2009-12-01

    When atmospheric chemistry is included in long climate and Earth system simulations, the completeness of the chemical mechanism must be balanced with the computational cost, and the scientific interests of the atmospheric chemist must be tempered by the chemical needs of other components of the climate model (e.g, greenhouse gas concentrations for radiative heating, and deposition rates for biosphere interactions). We have implemented a super-fast chemical mechanism for use in IPCC AR5 simulations with the CCSM climate model. The mechanism uses just 17 species to calculate ozone, OH, and sulfate, with the OH providing the means to back-out the lifetime of methane and other species of interest. The recent addition of isoprene offers significant improvements to the sensitivity of the super-fast mechanism to emission perturbations when compared to our state-of-the-art full chemistry mechanism that uses 90 species. An analysis of the impact of different tropopause definitions will also be presented.

  12. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

  13. Geoethics disgraced by Copernicus in its desperate act of covering up for the IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    All my life I have put observational facts in the centre. This is what Leonardo da Vinci called "to read the book of mother Earth". For a geologist this is very natural because this is the core of the geological profession. The IPCC, on the other hand, put all credits on models and scenarios. One of its founders and its first president, Bert Bolin, at a debate in the Geophysical Society of Sweden in 2001, admitted (quotation): "you can order whatever scenario you wish". With this as a background, we can put a recent action by Copernicus at a test with respect to geoethics and normal decency. The idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts". The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system. This may be held as a benchmark event in our understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. Furthermore, they noted two implications of this: partly that the old hypothesis was now lifted to a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm, and partly that we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC". "We were alarmed by the second implication", Martin Rasmussen, VD of Copernicus, stated, and took the unbelievable decision immediately to close down the entire journal. This happened on January 17 without any discussion

  14. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering the...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.......Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of Northern Hemisphere land air temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global...

  15. Assessment of global dimming and brightening in IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 models and ERA40

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wild, Martin; Schmucki, Edgar [ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-10-15

    Observations indicate that solar radiation incident at the Earth surface underwent substantial decadal variations in the second half of the twentieth century, with a tendency towards reduction from the 1950s to the 1980s (''global dimming'') and a partial recovery thereafter (''brightening'') at widespread locations. The most reliable observational records from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) are used to evaluate the ability of the climate models participating in CMIP3/IPCC-AR4 as well as the ERA40 reanalysis to reproduce these decadal variations. The results from 23 models and reanalysis are analyzed in five different climatic regions where strong decadal variations in surface solar radiation (SSR) have been observed. Only about half of the models are capable of reproducing the observed decadal variations in a qualitative way, and all models show much smaller amplitudes in these variations than seen in the observations. Largely differing tendencies between the models are not only found under all-sky conditions, but also in cloud-free conditions and in the representation of cloud effects. The ERA40 reanalysis neither reproduces the major decadal variations in SSR, despite strong observational constraints on the temporal evolution of the state of the atmosphere, since time varying aerosol loadings are missing. Climate models and reanalyses are therefore not yet at a stage to provide regionally consistent estimates of decadal changes in SSR. Reproduction of these changes would be essential for an adequate representation of regional scale climate variations and impacts, and short-term (decadal) climate projections. (orig.)

  16. A Search for the Fourth SM Family Quarks through Anomalous Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Sahin, M; Turkoz, S

    2010-01-01

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the Standard Model. Because of the high masses of the fourth family quarks, their anomalous decays could be dominant. This will drastically change the search strategy at hadron colliders. We show that the fourth SM family down quarks with masses up to 400-450 GeV can be observed (or excluded) via anomalous decays by Tevatron before the LHC.

  17. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  18. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

    2008-06-01

    Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately

  19. Gravitational lensing in fourth order gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Capozziello, S; Troisi, A

    2006-01-01

    Gravitational lensing is investigated in the weak field limit of fourth order gravity in which the Lagrangian of the gravitational field is modified by replacing the Ricci scalar curvature R with an analytical expression $f(R)$. Considering the case of a pointlike lens, we study the behaviour of the deflection angle in the case of power law Lagrangians, i.e. with f(R) = f_0 R^n. In order to investigate possible detectable signatures, the position of the Einstein ring and the solutions of the lens equation are evaluated considering the change with respect to the standard case. Effects on the amplification of the images and the Paczynski curve in microlensing experiments are also estimated.

  20. Simulations of the 100-hPa South Asian High and Precipitation over East Asia with IPCC Coupled GCMs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Ningfang; YU Yongqiang; QIAN Yongfu

    2006-01-01

    The South Asian High (SAH) and precipitation over East Asia simulated by 11 coupled GCMs associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report are evaluated. The seasonal behavior of the SAH is presented for each model. Analyses of the results show that all models are able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the SAH. Locations of the SAH center are also basically reproduced by these models. All models underestimate the intensity and the extension of coverage in summer. The anomalous SAH can be divided into east and west modes according to its longitu dinal position in summer on the interannual timescale, and the composite anomalies of the observed precipitation for these two modes tend to have opposite signs over East Asia. However, only several coupled GCMs can simulate the relationship between rainfall and SAH similar to the observed one, which may be associated with the bias in simulation of the subtropical anticyclone over the West Pacific (SAWP) at 500 hPa. In fact, it is found that any coupled GCM, that can reproduce the reasonable summer mean state of SAWP and the southward (northward) withdrawal (extension) for the east (west) mode of SAH as compared to the observed, will also simulate similar rainfall anomaly patterns for the east and west SAH modes over East Asia. Further analysis indicates that the observed variations in the SAH, SAWP and rainfall are closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial tropical Pacific. Particularly, some models cannot simulate the SAWP extending northward in the west mode and withdrawing southward in the east mode, which may be related to weak major El Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a events.The abilities of the coupled GCMs to simulate the SAWP and ENSO events are associated partly with their ability to reproduce the observed relationship between SAH and the rainfall anomaly over East Asia.

  1. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  2. Fourth Lepton Family is Natural in Technicolor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    T. Frandsen, Mads; Masina, Isabella; Sannino, Francesco

    2010-01-01

    Imagine to discover a new fourth family of leptons at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) but no signs of an associated fourth family of quarks. What would that imply? An intriguing possibility is that the new fermions needed to compensate for the new leptons gauge anomalies simultaneously address the...... structure with and without mixing with the Standard Model families. We also analyze the LHC potential to observe the fourth lepton family in tandem with the new composite Higgs dynamics. We finally introduce a model uniting the fourth lepton family and the technifermion sector at higher energies....

  3. Climate Change Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

    1998-03-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

  4. Fourth order spatial derivative gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemfica, F. S.; Gomes, M.

    2011-10-01

    In this work, we study a modified theory of gravity that contains up to fourth order spatial derivatives as a model for the Hořava-Lifshitz gravity. The propagator is evaluated and, as a result, one extra pole is obtained, corresponding to a spin-2 nonrelativistic massless particle, an extra term which jeopardizes renormalizability, besides the unexpected general relativity unmodified propagator. Then unitarity is proved at the tree level, where the general relativity pole has been shown to have no dynamics, remaining only the 2 degrees of freedom of the new pole. Next, the nonrelativistic effective potential is determined from a scattering process of two identical massive gravitationally interacting bosons. In this limit, Newton’s potential is obtained, together with a Darwin-like term that comes from the extra nonpole term in the propagator. Regarding renormalizability, this extra term may be harmful by power counting, but it can be eliminated by adjusting the free parameters of the model. This adjustment is in accord with the detailed balance condition suggested in the literature and shows that the way in which extra spatial derivative terms are added is of fundamental importance.

  5. Fourth international radiopharmaceutical dosimetry symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The focus of the Fourth International Radiopharmaceutical Dosimetry Symposium was to explore the impact of current developments in nuclear medicine on absorbed dose calculations. This book contains the proceedings of the meeting including the edited discussion that followed the presentations. Topics that were addressed included the dosimetry associated with radiolabeled monoclonal antibodies and blood elements, ultrashort-lived radionuclides, and positron emitters. Some specific areas of discussion were variations in absorbed dose as a result of alterations in the kinetics, the influence of radioactive contaminants on dose, dose in children and in the fetus, available instrumentation and techniques for collecting the kinetic data needed for dose calculation, dosimetry requirements for the review and approval of new radiopharmaceuticals, and a comparison of the effect on the thyroid of internal versus external irradiation. New models for the urinary blader, skeleton including the active marrow, and the blood were presented. Several papers dealt with the validity of traditional ''average-organ'' dose estimates to express the dose from particulate radiation that has a short range in tissue. These problems are particularly important in the use of monoclonal antibodies and agents used to measure intracellular functions. These proceedings have been published to provide a resource volume for anyone interested in the calculation of absorbed radiation dose

  6. Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, V; Dell'Aquila, A; Ruti, P M; Speranza, A; Aquila, Alessandro Dell'; Calmanti, Sandro; Lucarini, Valerio; Ruti, Paolo M.; Speranza, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat u...

  7. Energetics of IPCC4AR Climate Models: Energy Balance and Meridional Enthalpy Transports

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    We consider the climate simulations performed using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios and analyse the outputs of the state-of-the-art models included in IPCC4AR. For control simulations, large energy biases are present for several models both when global climate budgets and when energy budgets of the atmospheric, oceanic, and land subdomains are considered. The energy biases depend on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components of the climate system and on issues in the treatment of phase transitions and heat fluxes over land. Additionally, the consequence of a positive global energy bias, which is what most models feature, is the underestimation of the thermodynamic emission temperature of the planet and of the globally averaged surface temperature. This may help explaining the cold bias of climate models. Models agree on the representation of meridional enthalpy transports in terms of location of the peaks of the total and atmospheric transports, whereas quantitative disagreements o...

  8. Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

    2015-12-01

    China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China.

  9. Systems Prototyping with Fourth Generation Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sholtys, Phyllis

    1983-01-01

    The development of information systems using an engineering approach that uses both traditional programing techniques and fourth generation software tools is described. Fourth generation applications tools are used to quickly develop a prototype system that is revised as the user clarifies requirements. (MLW)

  10. Perception of biographical time in the fourth age: cases study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Analía Pochintesta

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Since human life passes through an irreversible time axis, the passage of time makes us face with the idea of finiteness. As people age there is a change in their time perception and in the idea of their own death. With the aim of studying the changes related to their own temporality, this study analyses biographical trajectories of people in the fourth age. The analysis is based on three pillars: vital projects, organization of everyday life and bodily changes. An exploratory qualitative study was carried out based on 23 biographical interviews that constituted an intentional sample of self-validated persons, born between 1917 and 1932, from different socio-economic status and residing in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Results suggest that for people in their fourth age, time perception is narrow. There is a decentering of oneself and a concern about transcendence and continuity (symbolic and biological both related to grandparantage.  

  11. Methane production as a result from rumen fermentation in cattle calculated by using the IPCC-GPG tier 2 method; Methaanproductie als gevolg van pensfermentatie bij rundvee berekend middels de IPCC-GPG Tier 2 methode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smink, W.; Pellikaan, W.F.; Van der Kolk, L.J. [Feed Innovation Services, Aarle-Rixtel (Netherlands); Van der Hoek, K.W. [Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2004-07-01

    Following the IPCC GPG Guidelines the enteric fermentation emission is calculated as a percentage of the gross energy intake in cattle feedstuffs. The energy consumption for maintenance, activity, growth, lactation and pregnancy is described in detail. Combining this with the average rations for cattle the methane emissions are calculated. The report presents for the period 1990-2002 for all cattle categories the methane emission resulting from enteric fermentation. [Dutch] Volgens de IPCC-GPG methode wordt de methaanemissie berekend als percentage van de door het dier opgenomen bruto energie met het voer. Het rapport beschrijft in detail de benodigde energie voor onderhoud, activiteit, groei, lactatie en dracht. Met behulp van de rantsoenen van het Nederlandse rundvee wordt vervolgens de bruto energie opname berekend. Het rapport presenteert voor de volledige periode 1990-2002 voor alle rundveecategorieen de methaanemissie als gevolg van pensfermentatie.

  12. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  13. Predictive Understanding of Seasonal Hydrological Dynamics under Climate and Land Use-Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Kumar, P.; Cai, X.; Fraiture, C. D.

    2008-12-01

    Water has always been and will continue to be an important factor in agricultural production and any alteration in the seasonal distribution of water availability due to climate and land use-land cover change (LULCC) will significantly impact the future production. To achieve the ecologic, economic and social objectives of sustainability, physical understanding of the linkages between climatic changes, LULCC and hydrological response is required. Aided by satellite data, modeling and understanding of the interactions between physical processes of the climate system and society, more reliable regional LULCC and climate change projections are now available. However, resulting quantitative projection of changes on the regional scale hydrological components at the seasonal time scale are sparse. This study attempts to quantify the seasonal hydrological response due to projected LULCC and climate change scenario of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in different hydro-climatic regions of the world. The Common Land Model (CLM) is used for global assessment of future hydrologic response with the development of a consistent global GIS based database for the surface boundary conditions and meteorological forcing of the model. Future climate change projections are derived from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group I - The Physical Science Basis. The study is performed over nine river basins selected from Asia, Africa and North America to present the broad climatic and landscape controls on the seasonal hydrological dynamics. Future changes in water availability are quite evident from our results based upon changes in the volume and seasonality of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration. Severe water scarcity is projected to occur in certain seasons which may not be known through annual estimates. Knowledge of the projected seasonal hydrological response can be effectively used for developing adaptive management strategies for the sustainability

  14. Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

  15. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM ground measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Our intercomparisons of three CF or sky-cover related datasets reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10 % (5 % for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The results also show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the total CF (TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are twice as large as the deviations in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other cloud properties, such as cloud optical depth and height, have a similar magnitude of disparity to TCF among the GCMs, and suggests that the better agreement among the GCMs in solar radiative fluxes is the result of compensating errors in cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth and cloud fraction. The internal variability of CF simulated in ensemble runs with the same model is very minimal. Similar deviation patterns between inter-model and model-measurement comparisons suggest that the climate models tend to generate larger biases against observations for those variables with larger inter-model deviation.

    Differences are found in GCM performance over the three ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. The GCMs perform better at SGP than at the other two sites in simulating the seasonal variation and probability distribution of TCF. However, the models remarkably underpredict the TCF and cloud transmissivity is less susceptible to the change of TCF than observed. Much larger inter-model deviation and model bias are found over NSA than the other sites, suggesting that the Arctic region continues to

  16. Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Xiaolin; WANGF Fan; TANG Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS)is possibly strengthened under the global wanning scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years' temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0℃ and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5℃.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.

  17. Tropical cyclones and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  18. Heading for the fourth nuclear age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

  19. The fourth state of water

    OpenAIRE

    E.V. Savich

    2013-01-01

    Четвертое состояние воды – это водяной пар под энергетическим воздействием напряженности магнитного поля в точке Кюри, в момент магнитного фазового перехода обретает свойство сегнетоэлектрической плазмы, которая есть основа образований таких природных явлений, как грозовое облако и шаровая молния, способных при определенных условиях выделять молнийные разряды и при взрыве большое количество тепловой энергии, что характерно для низкотемпературного реактора. The fourth state of water is aque...

  20. Handle Fireworks with Care on The Fourth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fourth Take steps to avoid injury while celebrating independence To use the sharing features on this page, ... a university news release. And Dr. Jay McCollum, director of emergency services at the university's Eye Hospital, ...

  1. Fourth Moments and Independent Component Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Miettinen, Jari; Taskinen, Sara; Nordhausen, Klaus; Oja, Hannu

    2014-01-01

    In independent component analysis it is assumed that the components of the observed random vector are linear combinations of latent independent random variables, and the aim is then to find an estimate for a transformation matrix back to these independent components. In the engineering literature, there are several traditional estimation procedures based on the use of fourth moments, such as FOBI (fourth order blind identification), JADE (joint approximate diagonalization of eigenmatrices), a...

  2. Analysis of the evolution of the climate parameters, especially precipitations and temperatures, in the province of Binh Thuan in Southern Vietnam based on IPCC models

    OpenAIRE

    Doutreloup, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Ozer, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    This research is implied into the BELSPO / Vietnamese desertification project and the aim of this work is to analyse the future evolution of the temperatures and precipitations in the region of Binh Thuan thanks to the IPCC models (CMIP3).

  3. An International Land-Biosphere Model Benchmarking Activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Thornton, P. E.; Bonan, G. B.; Brooks, B. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Fung, I.

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon

  4. An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Randerson, James T [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Erickson III, David J [ORNL; Fung, Inez [University of California, Berkeley

    2009-12-01

    The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon

  5. A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pardaens, Anne K.; Lowe, J.A. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); Gregory, J.M. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon (United Kingdom); University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2011-05-15

    In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes. (orig.)

  6. The Naturalness of the Fourth SM Family

    CERN Document Server

    Sultansoy, S

    2009-01-01

    The necessity of the fourth family follows from the SM basics. According to flavor democracy the Dirac masses of the fourth SM family fermions are almost equal with preferable value 450 GeV, which corresponds to common (for all fundamental fermions) Yukawa coupling equal to SU(2) gauge coupling gW. In principle, one expect u4 a little bit lighter than d4, while nu4 could be essentially lighter than l4 due to Majorana mass terms for right-handed components of neutrinos. Obviously, the fourth family quarks will be copiously produced at the LHC. However, the first indication of the fourth SM family may be provided by early Higgs boson observation due to almost an order enhancement of the gluon fusion to Higgs cross-section. For the same reason the Tevatron still has a chance to observe the Higgs boson before the LHC. Concerning the fourth family leptons, in general, best place will be NLC/CLIC. However, for some mass regions and MNS matrix elements double discovery of both the nu4 and H could be possible at the ...

  7. Fourth Tennessee water resources symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The annual Tennessee Water Resources Symposium was initiated in 1988 as a means to bring together people with common interests in the state's important water-related resources at a technical, professional level. Initially the symposium was sponsored by the American Institute of Hydrology and called the Hydrology Symposium, but the Tennessee Section of the American Water Resources Association (AWRA) has taken on the primary coordination role for the symposium over the last two years and the symposium name was changed in 1990 to water resources to emphasize a more inter-disciplinary theme. This year's symposium carries on the successful tradition of the last three years. Our goal is to promote communication and cooperation among Tennessee's water resources professionals: scientists, engineers, and researchers from federal, state, academic, and private institutions and organizations who have interests and responsibilities for the state's water resources. For these conference proceedings, individual papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base

  8. Predicted risk of cobalt deficiency in grazing sheep from a geochemical survey; communicating uncertainty with the IPCC verbal scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Ander, E. L.; Cave, M. R.; Knights, K. V.; Glennon, M. M.; Scanlon, R. P.

    2014-05-01

    Deficiency or excess of certain trace elements in the soil causes problems for agriculture, including disorders of grazing ruminants. Farmers and their advisors in Ireland use index values for the concentration of total soil cobalt and manganese to identify where grazing sheep are at risk of cobalt deficiency. We used cokriging with topsoil data from a regional geochemical survey across six counties of Ireland to form local cokriging predictions of cobalt and manganese concentrations with an attendant distribution which reflects the joint uncertainty of these predictions. From this distribution we then computed conditional probabilities for different combinations of cobalt and manganese index values, and so for the corresponding inferred risk to sheep of cobalt deficiency and the appropriateness of different management interventions. The challenge is to communicate these results effectively to an audience comprising, inter alia, farmers, agronomists and veterinarians. Numerical probabilities are not generally well-understood by non-specialists. For this reason we presented our results as maps using a verbal scale to communicate the probability that a deficiency is indicated by local soil conditions, or that a particular intervention is indicated. In the light of recent research on the effectiveness of the verbal scale used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to communicate probabilistic information we reported the geostatistical predictions as follows. First, we use the basic IPCC scale with intensifiers, but we also indicate the corresponding probabilities (as percentages) as recommended by Budescu et al. (2009). Second, we make it clear that the source of uncertainty in these predictions is the spatial variability of soil Co and Mn. The outcome under consideration is therefore that a particular soil management scenario would be indicated if the soil properties were known without error, possible uncertainty about the implications of particular soil

  9. Fourth International Seminar and Fourth National Workshop 'Use and development of Health Related Industrial Isotope Products'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of the main subjects was tackled during the Fourth International Seminar and Fourth National Workshop 'Use and development of Health Related Industrial Isotope Products' which took place on December 7th, 8th and 9th 2010, devoted to the XV Anniversary of the Isotope Centre is showed in the paper.(author)

  10. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer; Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, waar? Het IPCC rapport geeft het antwoord

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeiler, W. [Kropman, Rijswijk (Netherlands)

    2007-09-15

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity. [Dutch] Het klimaat verandert. De gemiddelde temperatuur stijgt. Er komen vaker en vaker extreme weersomstandigheden voor. Denk in Nederland aan de hittegolven en de droogte van de zomer 2003 en aan de vele regenbuien in augustus 2004, de natste augustus maand in 150 jaar. Vooral de mensen in ontwikkelingslanden en de mensen in kwetsbare gebieden zoals Nededand zullen het meest worden getroffen door de gevolgen van klimaatverandering. Ook de natuur zal ingrijpend veranderen. Bepaalde plant- en diersoorten zullen uitsterven andere zullen gaan overwoekeren. De diversiteit zal sterk afnemen.

  11. Alarmist misrepresentations of the findings of the latest scientific assessment report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Henry R.

    2007-08-15

    The alarmist propaganda following release of the Policymakers Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group 1 of the IPCC this year is unjustified. We had this information since 2001, when the Third Assessment Report was released. However, this does not mean that we should ignore the potential consequences of increasing the impact of the current interglacial period. (author)

  12. A Fourth Chiral Generation And Susy Breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Wingerter, Akin

    2011-01-01

    We revisit four generations within the context of supersymmetry. We compute the perturbativity limits for the fourth generation Yukawa couplings and show that if the masses of the fourth generation lie within reasonable limits of their present experimental lower bounds, it is possible to have perturbativity only up to scales around 1000 TeV, i.e. the current experimental bounds and perturbative unification are mutually exclusive. Such low scales are ideally suited to incorporate gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking, where the mediation scale can be as low as 10-20 TeV. The minimal messenger model, however, is highly constrained. Lack of electroweak symmetry breaking rules out a large part of the parameter space, and in the remaining part, the fourth generation stau is tachyonic.

  13. Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

  14. An IPCC-Compliant Technique for Forest Carbon Stock Assessment Using Airborne LiDAR-Derived Tree Metrics and Competition Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinsu Lin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study developed an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change compliant method for the estimation of above-ground carbon (AGC in forest stands using remote sensing technology. A multi-level morphological active contour (MMAC algorithm was employed to obtain tree-level metrics (tree height (LH, crown radius (LCR, competition index (LCI, and stem diameter (LDBH from an airborne LiDAR-derived canopy height model. Seven biomass-based AGC models and 13 volume-based AGC models were developed using a training dataset and validated using a separate validation dataset. Four accuracy measures, mean absolute error (MAE, root-mean-square error (RMSE, percentage RMSE (PRMSE, and root-mean-square percentage error (RMSPE were calculated for each of the 20 models. These measures were transformed into a new index, accuracy improvement percentage (AIP, for post hoc testing of model performance in estimating forest stand AGC stock. Results showed that the tree-level AGC models explained 84% to 91% of the variance in tree-level AGC within the training dataset. Prediction errors (RMSEs for these models ranged between 15 ton/ha and 210 ton/ha in mature forest stands, which is equal to an error percentage in the range 6% to 86%. At the stand-level, several models achieved accurate and reliable predictions of AGC stock. Some models achieved 90% to 95% accuracy, which was equal to or superior to the R-squared of the tree-level AGC models. The first recommended model was a biomass-based model using the metrics LDBH, LH, and LCI and the others were volume-based models using LH, LCI, and LCR and LDBH and LH. One metric, LCI, played a critical role in upgrading model performance when banded together with LH and LCR or LDBH and LCR. We conclude by proposing an IPCC-compatible method that is suitable for calculating tree-level AGC and predicting AGC stock of forest stands from airborne LiDAR data.

  15. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  16. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM long-term ground-based measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Comparisons are performed for three climate regimes as represented by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. Our intercomparisons of three independent measurements of CF or sky-cover reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5% for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The total sky imager (TSI produces smaller total cloud fraction (TCF compared to a radar/lidar dataset for highly cloudy days (CF > 0.8, but produces a larger TCF value than the radar/lidar for less cloudy conditions (CF < 0.3. The compensating errors in lower and higher CF days result in small biases of TCF between the vertically pointing radar/lidar dataset and the hemispheric TSI measurements as multi-year data is averaged. The unique radar/lidar CF measurements enable us to evaluate seasonal variation of cloud vertical structures in the GCMs.

    Both inter-model deviation and model bias against observation are investigated in this study. Another unique aspect of this study is that we use simultaneous measurements of CF and surface radiative fluxes to diagnose potential discrepancies among the GCMs in representing other cloud optical properties than TCF. The results show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are larger than those in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other dimensions of cloud in addition to cloud amount, such as cloud optical thickness and

  17. Fourth-Generation Computer Languages: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricks, John

    1988-01-01

    Points out that mainframe computer users today can make their requirements known to the computer in simple English. Provides a listing of fourth generation computer language advantages over third generation languages. Summarizes a program to streamline faculty records on a mainframe computer. (MVL)

  18. Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Diane F.

    2011-01-01

    The fourth edition of "Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities" critically examines the breadth of research on this complex and controversial topic, with the principal aim of helping the reader to understand where sex differences are found--and where they are not. Since the publication of the third edition, there have been many exciting and…

  19. Fourth Dutch Process Security Control Event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.; Zielstra, A.

    2010-01-01

    On December 1st, 2009, the fourth Dutch Process Control Security Event took place in Baarn, The Netherlands. The security event with the title ‘Manage IT!’ was organised by the Dutch National Infrastructure against Cybercrime (NICC). Mid of November, a group of over thirty people participated in the

  20. Contribution of the the working group 1 to the fourth evaluation report of the intergovernmental experts group on the climate evolution. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes the physical scientifical bases. Abstract for the deciders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report describes the progresses in the knowledge of the scientifical understand of the natural and human causes of the climatic change. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and the last six years of research with scenario and simulations. (A.L.B.)

  1. The Effects of Background Music in the Classroom on the Productivity, Motivation, and Behavior of Fourth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Kevin N.

    2007-01-01

    Many students in a fourth grade classroom at Logan Elementary School are expressing numerous types of negative behaviors, are not motivated to learn, and do not stay on-task. In an effort to change these students, an action research study was conducted that implemented background music in the classroom. There were ten fourth grade students who…

  2. IPCC确定的几种未来大气CO2浓度水平对人为CO2排放的限制%The Limit to Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions under IPCC Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金心; 石广玉

    2001-01-01

    A three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model and a simple terrestrial biosphere model are used to simulate anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for future atmospheric Pco2 levels. We estimate anthropogenic carbon emissions required to stabilize future atmospheric CO2 at various levels ranging from 350×10-6 to 750×10-6. All the stabilization scenarios require a substantial future reduction in emissions, but the amount to be reduction for each of the scenarios is quite difference.%用三维海洋碳循环模式和一个简单的陆地生物圈模式计算了IPCC(政府间气候变化委员会)未来大气CO2情景中海洋和生物圈的吸收,并结合土地变化的资料得出燃料的排放值。结果表明:尽管在所有的构想下,为了使大气中CO2浓度达到稳定必须减少排放,但对应不同的IPCC未来大气CO2情景,对人为CO2排放的限制是很不相同的。

  3. Going to the Extremes. An Intercomparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tebaldi, C. [Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR, PO BOX 3000, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Hayhoe, K. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Arblaster, J.M. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Meehl, G.A. [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2006-12-15

    Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments.

  4. Going to the extremes. An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events (Erratum)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tebaldi, C. [Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR, PO BOX 3000, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Hayhoe, K. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL (United States); Arblaster, J.M. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia); Meehl, G.A. [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2007-05-15

    This article is an erratum. The online version of the original article can be found at: doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4. The abstract of that article was as follows: Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to

  5. Future climate projection under IPCC A1B scenario in the source region of Yellow River with complex topography using RegCM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Pinhong; Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Wu, Jian; Kang, Yue

    2014-10-01

    Located on the Tibetan Plateau, the source region of Yellow River has experienced remarkable climate change over past a few decades, which affects the regional ecosystem, agricultural development, and water availability. In this paper, high-resolution RegCM3 driven by ECHAM5 is applied to generate both control climate for 1980-2000 and regional climate projections for the 21st century (2010-2098) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. For control climate, RegCM3 can well reproduce the spatial patterns of precipitation and surface air temperature with more detailed representation of fine scale topography. Wet and cold biases are produced in the simulation, but overall improvement by RegCM3 is evident compared to the driving global climate model (GCM) of ECHAM5. In the future projection, the model demonstrates significant warming over the whole analysis domain. Precipitation on the other hand shows mixed signals of reduction and increase over simulation domain, while the areas of precipitation reduction extend with increasing integration time and finally cover most parts of the domain at the end of 21st century. As projection time increases, high altitude region will experience more precipitation reduction in summer and less reduction or even increase in winter. The winter warming at the high elevation area gets more evident than that at the low elevation area, which may be due to the snow feedback. Analyzing the change of probability distributions of surface climate, it can be concluded that the frequency of heavy precipitation in winter tends to increase with time indicating more extreme precipitation events in the future. The spectrum of temperature probability density functions (PDFs) moves toward higher end.

  6. Forestal measures against climate change. Review and status after the Fourth Conference of the Parties of the Climate Convention; Skogtiltak mot klimaendringer. Oversikt og status etter fjerde partskonferanse til Klimakonvensjonen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, Lars Otto

    1999-08-01

    The Kyoto Protocol of December 1997 opens up the possibility that forestal measures can be used to meet parts of the commitments of the industrialized countries to achieve a net reduction of emission of climate gases. The present report summarizes the issues involved in forestal measures that will mitigate global climate changes. The emphasis is on forestal measures in the climate negotiations and technical carbon binding potential. There is also a brief review of economic, environmental and social aspects. The next decades will be crucial to the many of the world`s forests. The forests contain a large part of the biological diversity. Above all this is true of tropical forests. But untouched areas in tempered and boreal areas are also experiencing various types of threats, including the effects of a possible global heating. It is a main conclusion that, in spite of many complex challenges, climate measures in the forests may play a constructive role both in counteracting global climate changes and in improving the management of the world`s forest resources. 89 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  7. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  8. Exploring the Linkages between Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Challenge for Transdisciplinary Research

    OpenAIRE

    Mohan Munasinghe

    2001-01-01

    In recent years, both sustainable development and climate change have become well known worldwide, and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also focused on the nexus of these two key topics. The IPCC third assessment report confirms that global mean temperatures will rise 1.5-6 degrees Celsius during the next century. Furthermore, climate change will significantly affect the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as k...

  9. Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 – 5FL1 time series from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. R. Petrescu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all world countries. Parties to UNFCCC are required to provide periodic estimates of GHG emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The aim of the current study is comparing the IPCC GPG 2003 and the IPCC AFOLU 2006 by calculating the C stock changes in living forest biomass, and then using computed results to extend the EDGAR database. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level, i.e. using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the GEZ Ecological Zone map in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for Gains, Harvest, Net Deforestation and Fires (GFED3, for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two set of IPCC guidance differed by about 40%, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the results using IPCC AFOLU 2006 for Annex I countries are compared to other international datasets (UNFCCC, FAO or scientific publications, it emerges a significant overestimation of the sink. For developing countries, we conclude that C stock change in forest remaining forest can hardly be estimated with Tier 1 method. Overall, confronting the IPCC 2003 and 2006 methodologies we conclude that IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR and provide a consistent global picture of C stock changes in living forest biomass independent of

  10. Gravitational waves in fourth order gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capozziello, S.; Stabile, A.

    2015-08-01

    In the post-Minkowskian limit approximation, we study gravitational wave solutions for general fourth-order theories of gravity. Specifically, we consider a Lagrangian with a generic function of curvature invariants . It is well known that when dealing with General Relativity such an approach provides massless spin-two waves as propagating degree of freedom of the gravitational field while this theory implies other additional propagating modes in the gravity spectra. We show that, in general, fourth order gravity, besides the standard massless graviton is characterized by two further massive modes with a finite-distance interaction. We find out the most general gravitational wave solutions in terms of Green functions in vacuum and in presence of matter sources. If an electromagnetic source is chosen, only the modes induced by are present, otherwise, for any gravity model, we have the complete analogy with tensor modes of General Relativity. Polarizations and helicity states are classified in the hypothesis of plane wave.

  11. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    OpenAIRE

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-01-01

    Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and en...

  12. Fourth NASA Langley Formal Methods Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, C. Michael (Compiler); Hayhurst, Kelly J. (Compiler)

    1997-01-01

    This publication consists of papers presented at NASA Langley Research Center's fourth workshop on the application of formal methods to the design and verification of life-critical systems. Topic considered include: Proving properties of accident; modeling and validating SAFER in VDM-SL; requirement analysis of real-time control systems using PVS; a tabular language for system design; automated deductive verification of parallel systems. Also included is a fundamental hardware design in PVS.

  13. Fourth international conference on Networks & Communications

    CERN Document Server

    Meghanathan, Natarajan; Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom)

    2013-01-01

    Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom) is the proceedings from the Fourth International Conference on Networks & Communications. This book covers theory, methodology and applications of computer networks, network protocols and wireless networks, data communication technologies, and network security. The proceedings will feature peer-reviewed papers that illustrate research results, projects, surveys and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in the diverse areas of computer networks & communications.

  14. Flavour democracy calls for the fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative mode, that the inter species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavour democracy provided there are four families of sequential quark-leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed. (author). 15 refs

  15. Flavour democracy calls for the fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative model, that the inter species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavor democracy provided there are three exactly massless neutrinos and four families of sequential quark-leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed. (author). 22 refs

  16. Flavour Democracy Calls for the Fourth Generation

    CERN Document Server

    Datta, A

    1993-01-01

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative model, that the inter--species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavor democracy provided there are four families of sequential quark--leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed.

  17. The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

    2009-04-01

    of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

  18. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  19. Art meets mathematics in the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Lipscomb, Stephen Leon

    2014-01-01

    To see objects that live in the fourth dimension we humans would need to add a fourth dimension to our three-dimensional vision. An example of such an object that lives in the fourth dimension is a hyper-sphere or “3-sphere”. The quest to imagine the elusive 3-sphere has deep historical roots: medieval poet Dante Alighieri, in his circa 1300 AD Divine Comedy, used a 3-sphere to convey his allegorical vision of the Christian afterlife. In 1917, Albert Einstein visualized the universe, at each instant in time, as a 3-sphere. He described his representation as “…the place where the reader’s imagination boggles. Nobody can imagine this thing.” Over time, however, our understanding of the concept of dimension evolved. By 2003, a researcher had successfully rendered into human vision the structure of a 4-web (think of an every increasingly-dense spider’s web). In this text Stephen Lipscomb takes his innovative dimension theory research a step further, using the 4-web to reveal a new partial image of a...

  20. Fourth-rank gravity and cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider the consequences of describing the metric properties of space-time through a quartic line element. The associated ''metric'' is a fourth-rank tensor Gμυλπ. In order to recover a Riemannian behaviour of the geometry it is necessary to have Gμυλπ = g (μυgλπ). We construct a theory for the gravitational field based on the fourth-rank metric Gμυλπ. In the absence of matter the fourth-rank metric becomes separable and the theory coincides with General Relativity. In the presence of matter we can maintain Riemmanianicity, but now gravitation couples, as compared to General Relativity, in a different way to matter. We develop a simple cosmological model based on a FRW metric with matter described by a perfect fluid. For the present time the field equations are compatible with kOBS = O and ΩOBS tCLAS approx. 1020t PLANCK approx. 10-23s. Our final and most important result is the fact that the entropy is an increasing function of time. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. (author). 16 refs, 1 fig

  1. Telling time in the Fourth Gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerome H. Neyrey

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available When we begin the task of telling time in the Fourth Gospel, we bring something not found in any previous study, namely, a model of time articulated by cross- ultural anthropologists (Bordieu, in Pitt-Rivers 1963:55-72, Ayoade, in Wright 1984:71-89. As much as we admire Davies’ study, she has no notes to her chapter on time nor any citations in her bibliography to indicate that she has any conversation partners, much less cultural experts, a deficit to be filled in this study. Learning to tell time entails three theoretical considerations: a definition of time, key classifications of it, and special attention to what the ancients meant by past, present and future. With these lenses we are prepared to do as thorough a study as we can on telling time in the Fourth Gospel. As we consider each classification, we will suggest a brief meaning of it from the experts on time, then present a body of Greco-Roman materials illustrative of the classification, and finally use it to gather and interpret data in John. Proving the native existence of these classifications for telling time in antiquity is essential for readers to have a background against which to compare their usage with that of the Fourth Gospel.

  2. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  3. Implications from the climatic change dynamics for research and development concerning renewable energies in Germany; Implikationen aus der Dynamik des Klimawandels fuer Forschung und Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewerenz, Jana Celeste

    2009-03-15

    The climatic change is a fact. The contribution of the fourth IPCC (international panel on climate change) report is covered in the first chapter of the volume, describing the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas production during the last centuries, possible mitigation strategies, unavoidable consequences, macroeconomic costs for stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and possibilities of renewable energy resources. The second chapter is the Stern report 2006 on the existing scientific literature concerning the climatic change and its consequences, risk analyses and cost estimations for greenhouse gas reduction strategies on the one hand and costs of the possibly catastrophic consequences of the climate change on the other hand. The third chapter is the pilot study of the Federal Ministry of environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety 2007/2008. The fourth chapter is the contribution of the scientific commission of the Federal government on global environmental changes (WBGU) no 5: new stimuli for the climate policy: chances of the German double presidency. The fifth chapter covers the Meseberg topics - the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP) followed by a discussion of the described contributions.

  4. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity

  5. 76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-07

    ...).'' The SRREX is being developed under the leadership of the IPCC Working Group II. This report will... taking advantage of opportunities that climate change will offer. This Special Report aims to...

  6. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands: summary Report 1990-1997 (IPCC Tables 7A)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; Spakman J; Berg JC van den; LAE

    1999-01-01

    This report documents the Netherlands' annual greenhouse gas emission inventory submitted for 1998 according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Emissions of CO2 and N2O increased from 1990 to 1997 (with a

  7. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands: Summary Report 1990-1998 (IPCC Tables 1-7)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; Berg JC van den; Peters JAHW; LAE

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the 1998 Netherlands' annual submission of its greenhouse gas emission inventory according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and to the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). From the inventories it can be concluded that emissio

  8. IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化%Long term trends in global sea level under IPCC SRES A2 scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈长霖; 左军成; 杜凌; 何倩倩

    2012-01-01

    利用CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化.模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.0048 mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献.在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势.同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献.北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度.%Based on CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3) model, the long-term sea level trends of global ocean in the 20th and 21st century under IPCC SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2001) are ana-lyzed in this paper. The result shows that global sea level rises about 4. 0 cm during 20th century through steric expansion, with an acceleration of 0. 004 8 mm/a2; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. CCSM3 simulation also shows that in the 21st century sea level will rise in acceleration; the global sea level will rise 30 cm during the whole century through steric expansion. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies that contribute to sea level change is very different between ocean basins. Significant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean can extend to 2 500 m depth, while the salinity change partially counteracts sea level rise due to this warming. The steric anomalies in the Pacific Ocean occur mainly in the upper 700 m. In the Southern Ocean, steric change can extend to the entire water column.

  9. A Rethinking of the Production Approach in IPCC: Its Objectiveness in China

    OpenAIRE

    Hongqiang Yang; Xiaobiao Zhang

    2016-01-01

    The trade of harvested wood products (HWPs) and their feedstock increasingly affects the dynamics of the complete national HWP carbon pool ignored by the Production Approach (PA), the current universal method, proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Existing research also overlooks the inherent factors that lead to the non-objectiveness of PA that affects the potential carbon trade and the sustainable use of forestry resources. This study aimed to investigate such inherent ...

  10. Geometry, relativity and the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudolf

    1977-01-01

    This is a highly readable, popular exposition of the fourth dimension and the structure of the universe. A remarkable pictorial discussion of the curved space-time we call home, it achieves even greater impact through the use of 141 excellent illustrations. This is the first sustained visual account of many important topics in relativity theory that up till now have only been treated separately.Finding a perfect analogy in the situation of the geometrical characters in Flatland, Professor Rucker continues the adventures of the two-dimensional world visited by a three-dimensional being to expl

  11. Analiticity in fourth order wave equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Through a familiar example (δ-function potential in one dimension) the analytic properties of Jost functions associated with fourth order equations are presented. It is shown how to construct the Jost functions and the two discontinuities matrices associated to the line of singularities. The latter divide the complex k-plane in eight regions of analiticity. One of these matrices is related to the asymptotic behaviour of scattering state. The other is not. Both being necessary to solve the inverse problem. Besides the usual poles related to bound states there are also other poles associated with total reflexion. (Author)

  12. The fourth pattern of attachment: Disorganized / disoriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Cugmas

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the study of recent scientific literature about the development of attachment behavior, the author answers the following questions about: the behavior children categorized as Disorganized/disorientated or Controlling in the procedure of the Strange situation; the life circumstances, in which these children live; the reasons for lack of balanced strategies of attachment and characteristics of their general manner of adaptation. The author finds the characteristics of the mothers' (insensitivity to be significantly influential for the emergence of the fourth pattern of attachment. These children are heterogeneous regarding adaptation in general. Professional help preceding negative consequences for their socioemotional development is neccesary.

  13. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuomisto, H. [ed.] [IVO Group, Vantaa (Finland); Purhonen, H. [ed.] [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kouhia, V. [ed.] [Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries.

  14. The Fourth VLBA Calibrator Survey - VCS4

    OpenAIRE

    Petrov, L.; Kovalev, Y. Y.; Fomalont, E.; Gordon, D

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the fourth extension to the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) Calibrator Survey, containing 258 new sources not previously observed with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). This survey, based on three 24 hour VLBA observing sessions, fills remaining areas on the sky above declination -40 degrees where the calibrator density is less than one source within a 4 degree radius disk at any given direction. The share of these area was reduced from 4.6% to 1.9%. Source positio...

  15. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries

  16. A kind of evolution: latest IPCC report identifies a major role for renewables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article discusses the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change which highlights the range of renewable energy and energy efficiency technology options that can be implemented to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. The background to TAR is traced and its conclusions relating to the technological, economic, and market potential are considered. Brief summaries are given of the state of hydroelectric power, biomass energy, liquid biofuels, wind power, solar energy, solar thermal systems, geothermal energy and wave power. Relevant issues such as the trend towards privately owned distributed power supply systems and technology transfer are examined, and electric-generating technologies and their costs were compared

  17. The understanding of world climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  18. Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Pablo; Montoya, Marisa; Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Dpto. Astrofisica y Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Instituto de Geociencias, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Mignot, Juliette [IPSL/LOCEAN, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Legutke, Stephanie [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. (orig.)

  19. Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

  20. Adaptation to climate change. Key terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Numerous terms and concepts have come into common usage as a result of IPCC reports, discussions in the context of the UNFCCC and dialogs by the climate community at large. This paper examines the key adaptation terms and concepts used by the climate change community and other institutions. Conflicts and contradictions are noted with the aim of sensitizing different bodies to the differences, but particularly the Parties to the Convention and experts participating in the IPCC. Given the need to promote a common understanding among various stakeholders and the potential financial implications of various definitions, it appears important for the IPCC and the UNFCCC to work toward common definitions, at least for a core set of terms and concepts

  1. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  2. Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Lutz

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5 and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3. With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February. However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

  3. Development of a risk database for the establishment of invasive mosquito species under impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

    2016-04-01

    Climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the main climatic parameters that are related to the suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS). In this work the future potentiality of IMS spread and establishment over Greece and Italy is assessed following four steps. In the first step current Spatial Risk Databases for the establishment of IMS over Greece and Italy are developed using the meteorological parameters from the ECA&D project. In the second step changes in the climatic parameters in 2050's are estimated using the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. In the third step, the mesoscale meteorological model WRF is used, to simulate the changes in the meteorological fields caused by climate change in a finer grid size using dynamical regional downscaling. Finally, in the fourth step the estimated changes in the meteorological parameters from step three are combined with the observation data from step one in order to estimate the future level of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product is spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

  4. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Rajendran; Ravi S Nanjundiah; Sulochana Gadgil; J Srinivasan

    2012-06-01

    The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST–rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST–rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

  5. A national landfill methane budget for Sweden based on field measurements, and an evaluation of IPCC models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börjesson, Gunnar; Samuelsson, Jerker; Chanton, Jeffrey; Adolfsson, Rolf; Galle, Bo; Svensson, Bo H.

    2009-04-01

    Seven Swedish landfills were investigated from 2001 to 2003. On each landfill, a measure of the total methane production was calculated from data on: (1) methane emissions (leakage); (2) methane oxidation and (3) from gas recovery. Methane emissions were determined via a tracer gas (N2O) release-based remote sensing method. N2O and CH4 were measured with an Fourier Transform infrared detector at a distance of more than 1 km downwind from the landfills. Methane oxidation in the landfill covers was measured with the stable carbon isotope method. The efficiency in gas recovery systems proved to be highly variable, but on an average, 51% of the produced landfill gas was captured. A first-order decay model, based on four fractions (waste from households and parks, sludges and industrial waste), showed that the use of a degradable organic carbon fraction (DOCf) value of 0.54, in accordance with the default value for DOCf of 0.50 in the latest IPCC model, gave an emission estimate similar to the official national reports.

  6. Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are sy...

  7. ESCENARIOS CLIMÁTICOS PARA EL MONZÓN SUDAMERICANO: DETERMINADOS POR LOS MODELOS DE ACOPLAMIENTO DEL IPCC AR4

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés W. Burgoa Mariaca

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available De los cinco modelos de cambio climático establecidos por el IPCC AR4 SRES A2 en el presente estudio, se eligen los modelos Ukmo_HadCM3 y el GISS-ER por brindar fuertes contrastes significativos en la distribución espacial de las precipitaciones en la parte central de la cuenca amazónica y la amazonía boliviana. Los modelos Ukmo_HadCM3 y Mpi-Echam5CM3 para el clima futuro en el escenario SRES A2, evidencian significativos constrastes en la vorticidad anticiclónica (ζ > 0 o Alta Boliviana. A su vez, la observación de la Corriente en Chorro de los Niveles Bajos (CCNB por dichos modelos, muestran semejanzas en el transporte de humedad de la Cuenca del Sahel africano hacia la Cuenca Amazónica, evidencióandose contrastes notorios en la parte noreste de la Cuenca del Plata.

  8. The fourth revolution how the infosphere is reshaping human reality

    CERN Document Server

    Floridi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    Who are we, and how do we relate to each other? Luciano Floridi, one of the leading figures in contemporary philosophy, argues that the explosive developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is changing the answer to these fundamental human questions. As the boundaries between life online and offline break down, and we become seamlessly connected to each other and surrounded by smart, responsive objects, we are all becoming integrated into an ". Personas we adopt in social media, for example, feed into our 'real' lives so that we begin to live, as Floridi puts in, ". Following those led by Copernicus, Darwin, and Freud, this metaphysical shift represents nothing less than a fourth revolution. " defines more and more of our daily activity - the way we shop, work, learn, care for our health, entertain ourselves, conduct our relationships; the way we interact with the worlds of law, finance, and politics; even the way we conduct war. In every department of life, ICTs have become environmenta...

  9. Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

    2009-04-01

    carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

  10. Fourth harmonic generation of DKDP crystal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deuterated dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystals of different deuterium contents were cut for type-Ⅰ non-critical phase-matching with the direction at 90° to the crystal z axis and at 45° to the crystal x axis, and then measured in the fourth harmonic generation experiments with fundamental wavelengths of 1 064 nm and 1 053 nm. respectively. The optimum deuterium content of DKDP crystal was confirmed by measuring the relation between deuterium content and phase-matching angle, The results indicate that DKDP crystal can not achieve non-critical phase matching by adjusting its deuterium content at room temperature with the fundamental wavelength of 1 064 nm. However, at the fundamental wavelength of 1053 nm. the optimum deuterium content of DKDP crystal is 85%, to achieve non-critical phase matching at room temperature. (authors)

  11. Fourth-rank gravity. A progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We consider the consequences of describing the metric properties of space-time through a quartic line element. The associated ''metric'' is a fourth-rank tensor. After developing some fundamentals for such geometry, we construct a field theory for the gravitational field. This theory coincides with General Relativity in the vacuum case. Departures from General Relativity are obtained only in the presence of matter. We develop a simple cosmological model which is not in contradiction with the observed value Ω approx. 0.2-0.3 for the energy density parameter. A further application concerns conformal field theory. We are able to prove that a conformal field theory possesses an infinite-dimensional symmetry group only if the dimension of space-time is equal to the rank of the metric. In this case we are able to construct an integrable conformal field theory in four dimensions. The model is renormalisable by power counting. (author). 9 refs

  12. Fourth Thematic CERN School of Computing

    CERN Multimedia

    Alberto Pace, CSC Director

    2016-01-01

    The Fourth Thematic School of Computing (tCSC2016) takes place this year in Split, Croatia, from 22 to 28 May 2016.   The theme is "Efficient and Parallel Processing of Scientific Data", looking at: The challenge of scientific data processing: commonalities, analogies and the main differences between different sciences. Size of scientific software projects. Parallelism and asynchronism: computation and I/O. The School is open to postgraduate students and research workers with a few years' experience in elementary particle physics, computing, engineering or related fields.  All applicants are welcome, including former and future participants in the main CSC summer school. Registration will close on 15 February and participation is limited to 24 students. To register, please go here. About: The Thematic Schools are part of the annual series of CERN Schools of Computing, to promote advanced learning and knowledge exchange on the subject of scientific compu...

  13. The Fourth VLBA Calibrator Survey - VCS4

    CERN Document Server

    Petrov, L A; Fomalont, E B; Gordon, D

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents the fourth extension to the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) Calibrator Survey, containing 262 new sources not previously observed with very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). This survey, based on three 24 hour VLBA observing sessions, fills remaining areas on the sky above declination -40 degrees where the calibrator density is less than one source within a 4 degree radius disk at any given direction. The share of these area was reduced from 4.6% to 1.9%. Source positions were derived from astrometric analysis of group delays determined at 2.3 and 8.6 GHz frequency bands using the Calc/Solve software package. The VCS4 catalogue of source positions, plots of correlated flux density versus projected baseline length, contour plots and fits files of naturally weighted CLEAN images, as well as calibrated visibility function files are available on the Web at http://gemini.gsfc.nasa.gov/vcs4 .

  14. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Minai, Ali A; Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IV

    2008-01-01

    In June of 2002, over 500 professors, students and researchers met in Boston, Massachusetts for the Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems. The attendees represented a remarkably diverse collection of fields: biology, ecology, physics, engineering, computer science, economics, psychology and sociology, The goal of the conference was to encourage cross-fertilization between the many disciplines represented and to deepen understanding of the properties common to all complex systems. This volume contains 43 papers selected from the more than 200 presented at the conference. Topics include: cellular automata, neurology, evolution, computer science, network dynamics, and urban planning. About NECSI: For over 10 years, The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in the development of complex systems science and its applications. NECSI conducts research, education, knowledge dissemination, and community development around the world for the promotion of the study of complex sys...

  15. Quality Criteria Development within the Fourth Framework Research Programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The revised EC patient Directive 97/43/EURATOM introduces a number of new and extremely relevant requirements into the legal framework of radiation protection of persons who undergo medical exposure throughout Europe. Key elements of the most relevant changes involve a more objective assessment of radiological performance. In particular, the establishment of optimisation strategies involving clinical and patient dose audits, as well as quality assurance, will be required. There is no doubt that within this changing framework for radiation protection of the patient, advice and guidance regarding best practice at a European level will play a vital role in the achievement of consistent and harmonised practice. In order to establish a starting point for both the structure and content of advice and guidance on best practice for radiation protection of the patient, the Commission of European Communities has established European Guidelines on Quality Criteria for diagnostic radiographic images for adult and paediatric patients as well as computed tomography. These documents have already been made available throughout Europe in English and translation into a number of European Languages is under way for re-circulation within specific Member States. Whilst this process was continuing a Fourth Framework Research Programme has been under way in the period 1996-2000 to develop and evaluate further the robustness of the Quality Criteria for diagnostic radiographic images for adult patients. An overview is presented of the most relevant findings of the Fourth Framework Research Project with a strong emphasis on operational outcomes relevant to focused multipartner, multinational research programmes of a multidisciplinary nature. Detailed findings of the project will be presented elsewhere in the meeting and through future publications. (author)

  16. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and environmental justice issues. This article uses the analytical lens of Fourth World theory to examine how such structural and cultural forces contributed to the severely distressed conditions now found in the city of Gary, Indiana. Tracking its one-hundred-year history, from its founding as an industrial town through its post-industrial decline occurring during the city’s first African-American mayor’s five terms in office, the methodology clearly demonstrates how the social construction of race has systematically undermined every aspect of Gary’s overall quality of life. To illustrate that this city is not an anomaly but rather reflects a typical pattern of disparity and uneven development arising from racist practices, Gary is compared to other cities of similar size and also to the much larger Detroit. The article triangulates academic literature, news media archives, and an oral history provided by the mayor to show how Gary evolved from being a model industrial city to a cauldron of racial disparity. The paper concludes by arguing that continued absence of reflection on the nation’s historical racialization of place threatens not just impoverished communities of color, but also the sustainability of the entire nation.

  17. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  18. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  19. IPCC 排放因子法探究 CO2排放量%CO 2 emission of Zhejiang and Guizhou province by the method of emission factor(IPCC)from 2005 to 2012

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜赟

    2015-01-01

    this research explored the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Zhejiang and Guizhou province within the time period from 2005 to 2012 by IPCC emission factor method. In addition,CO2 / GDP was also investigated to discuss the relationship between CO2 emission and economic development. The outcomes showed,CO2 emissions from the two areas have been increasing linearly over the past 8 years. However,CO2 / GDP displayed descending trends in the two provinces. This indicates that, with technical innovation and efficiency improvement,fossil fuels consumption is on its way to sus-tainable development. Generally speaking,the economic status of Zhejiang is much better than that of Guizhou. This is not only reflected on its higher economic volume,but also due to its lower CO2 /GDP. In addition,Guizhou has also made great progress in its sustainable economic development, reflected by its rising GDP and decreasing CO2 / GDP during this period. However,huge space for its further improvement still remains in terms of sustainable development.%本课题收集了浙江省和贵州省2005—2012年的化石能源消耗量相关数据,运用 IPCC 排放因子法计算了两省的 CO2排放情况,并结合两省经济数据,考查了单位 GDP CO2排放量。结果显示,两省 CO2排放量均为线性增长趋势,而两省的单位 GDP CO2排放量却逐渐降低。说明随着经济的发展,生产技术的改革,效率的提高,化石能源的消耗逐步迈入了可持续发展的道路。综合看来,浙江省经济的发展要优于贵州省,这不仅体现在经济总量远远高于贵州省,而且其单位 GDP CO2排放量低于贵州省。另外,贵州省经济状况虽然落后,但是从其不断上升的 GDP 总量和不断下降的单位 GDP CO2排放量可知,其经济发展处于不断进步阶段。贵州省在可持续经济发展道路上取得的成绩是毋庸置疑的,继续提升的空间也是巨大的。

  20. Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

    2012-01-01

    The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each

  1. UK-China Dialogue on Climate Ethics:Finding Consensus Review of the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy%中英气候伦理对话:从分歧走向共识--第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议综述

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史军

    2014-01-01

    2014年9月21日至23日,第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议暨中英气候伦理与政策研讨会在英国雷丁大学和牛津大学召开。会议围绕五组主题展开:代际气候正义与代内气候正义,气候贫困与消费者选择,平等与发展,国际法律与国际制度,新问题与新技术方案。此次会议对中英学者在应对气候变化问题上增进了解、求同存异、寻找共识起到了重要作用,进一步提升了我国学者参与国际气候问题交流与合作的水平和能力。%The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy, and UK⁃China Net⁃work on Climate Ethics was held on 21 and 22 September 2014 at University of Reading and on 23 September 2014 at the University of Oxford. The five groups of topics were as follow: intergenerational and intra⁃genera⁃tional Climate justice; climate poverty and consumer choice; equity and development; international institutions;new problems and new solutions. There was also extensive discussion on Chinese moral perspective on climate governance between UK and Chinese scholars.

  2. MANAGING PLANET EARTH TO MAKE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT MORE SUSTAINABLE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND HONG KONG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    W.W.-S.Yim; C.D.Ollier

    2009-01-01

    School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia)Selected recent findings related to climate change in Hong Kong include: (1)The Hong Kong seafloor has yielded a ca.0.5-million year record of climate and sea-level changes.(2)Greenhouse gases produced naturally from sub-aerially exposed continental shelves and oceanic islands were a probable forcing mechanism in triggering the abrupt termination of past ice ages. (3)An analysis of annual mean temperature records has revealed that the urban heat island effect has contributed ca.75% of the warming. (4)Past volcanic eruptions are found to lower Hong Kong's temperature and to cause extremely dry and wet years. (5)No evidence can be found for an increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons based on the instrumental record since the end of the Second World War. (6)The observed rate of sea-level rise in the South China Sea is much slower than the predictions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. For the Earth's management, population growth and the depletion of non-renewable resources must be recognized as unsustainable. The human impact on the natural hydrological cycle is an important forcing mechanism in climate change. In order to delay the demise of the human race, management must include curbing population growth and much more waste recycling than at present.

  3. Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MU Lin; WU Dexing; CHEN Xue'en; J Jungclaus

    2006-01-01

    A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPIOM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the subtropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC decreases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the northern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.

  4. Is a Breakthrough on Climate Change Governance on the Horizon?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    the Scandinavian countries have forged ahead advancing a variety of policies to respond to climate change. Similarly, regions, municipalities, and private actors across the world are also contributing to climate governance. This paper asks whether the world is reaching a tipping point where a...... breakthrough on climate change governance is near?. The answer is approached by contrasting the governance model within which the IPCC operates and the conditions of policy and governance interaction toward the more scientific foundations laid out by IPCC, with the range of multilateral climate governance......The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particular...

  5. Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brevik, Eric C.

    2013-04-01

    need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

  6. Fourth generation electron cyclotron resonance ion sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyneis, Claude M; Leitner, D; Todd, D S; Sabbi, G; Prestemon, S; Caspi, S; Ferracin, P

    2008-02-01

    The concepts and technical challenges related to developing a fourth generation electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) ion source with a rf frequency greater than 40 GHz and magnetic confinement fields greater than twice B(ECR) will be explored in this article. Based on the semiempirical frequency scaling of ECR plasma density with the square of operating frequency, there should be significant gains in performance over current third generation ECR ion sources, which operate at rf frequencies between 20 and 30 GHz. While the third generation ECR ion sources use NbTi superconducting solenoid and sextupole coils, the new sources will need to use different superconducting materials, such as Nb(3)Sn, to reach the required magnetic confinement, which scales linearly with rf frequency. Additional technical challenges include increased bremsstrahlung production, which may increase faster than the plasma density, bremsstrahlung heating of the cold mass, and the availability of high power continuous wave microwave sources at these frequencies. With each generation of ECR ion sources, there are new challenges to be mastered, but the potential for higher performance and reduced cost of the associated accelerator continues to make this a promising avenue for development. PMID:18315111

  7. Examination of nuclear systems of fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a detailed discussion of the six nuclear systems selected by the Generation IV International Forum with the objective of coordinating research and development activities which should result in the deployment of nuclear systems (reactors and associated fuel cycle installations) of fourth generation by the second half of the 21. century. These systems are: sodium cooled fast reactors (SFR), very high temperature reactors (VHTR), gas cooled fast reactors (GFR), lead cooled fast reactors (LFR) or lead bismuth eutectic reactors (LBE), molten salt reactors (MSR), and supercritical water reactors (SCWR). Fast systems are interesting as they favour the transmutation of fertile materials into fissile materials. History and perspectives of development, main characteristics, management of safety functions, risk analysis, impact on the environment, radiation protection and decommissioning, concept maturity and R and D needs are discussed for each of these systems. A comparison is reported in terms of main characteristics of reactors, of neutron characteristics and reactivity control, of sensitivity to cooling losses, of confinement function, of exploitation safety, of in-service inspection, of behaviour in case of severe accident, of toxicity of chemical substances, of sensitivity to aggressions (seism), of concept maturity and technological difficulties. The report also proposes a review of the various fuels which can be used in these different systems and which have been considered as eligible by the International Forum: oxides, carbides, nitrides, metals, waste processing. The last part addresses the transmutation of long life radioactive elements: physics, context, assessment of scenarios soundness, influence of transmutation on installations and transports

  8. Fourth generation type reactors - Synthesis note

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Six types of reactors have been studied: High or very high temperature helium cooled type reactors, fast neutrons sodium cooled type reactors, fast neutrons gas cooled type reactors, fast neutrons lead or lead-bismuth cooled type reactors, supercritical water type reactors, molten salt type reactors. For the high or very high temperature type reactors the questions of safety and radiation protection have been tackled through the fuel, the neutronics, the materials, the passive systems, safety and reliability of associated industrial processes, risks in relation with graphite, fire and explosion risks linked to hydrogen production; about the fast neutron sodium cooled type reactors the principal questions of safety are tackled through the specific risks linked to the metallic fuel, the neutronic effects in case of loss of coolant said sodium 'vacuum effect', risk of core meltdown, risks linked to sodium, passive systems, ability of structures inspection; concerning the fast neutron gas cooled type reactors, the questions of safety and radiation protection are the aspects linked to the reactor and the aspects linked to the fuel fabrication, this last question has been tackled for each reactor type. A part has been devoted to the production and the management of waste in the case of deployment of a fourth generation reactors park. (N.C.)

  9. IAEA research contracts. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume represents the fourth annual report on the results obtained under the Agency's research contract programme. During the short life of this programme, which is not quite six years old, a total investment of more than three million dollars has been made to support research in selected fields at institutes in 50 Member States. Extensive summaries are presented herein for all final reports relating to contracts which were completed during 1963. As it is the policy of the Agency to encourage publication in the open scientific literature of the results of work done under research contracts, a number of papers have also appeared in the appropriate journals - the Agency having been notified of 75 such publications in 1963. A complete list of references to these is given at the end of this report. The scientific data presented in the summaries of course remain the responsibility of the contractor. The Agency, however, is responsible for any additional observations. The reports presented are related to research in the field of radioactive waste management and environmental sciences; health physics and radiation protection; radiobiology; nuclear reactors physics and nuclear fuels; radioisotope applications in agriculture and medicine

  10. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  11. Human Resources Administration: A School-Based Perspective. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Enhanced and updated, this Fourth Edition of Richard E. Smith's highly successful text examines the growing role of the principal in planning, hiring, staff development, supervision, and other human resource functions. The Fourth Edition includes new sections on ethics, induction, and the role of the mentor teacher. This edition also introduces…

  12. Le changement climatique d'origine humaine. Rappel de quelques résultats générauxAnthropogenic climate change: general results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Michel

    1999-02-01

    The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports have highlighted major results, which constitute a relevant framework for the specific papers in this issue. Both facts established with large confidence level and models results are presented.

  13. NTFP and REDD at the Fourth World Conservation Congress: What is In and What is Not

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peña Pablo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available While the Fourth World Conservation Congress (WCC was effective in bringing together different participants to discuss climate change, the discussion of potential mitigation mechanisms was dominated by the Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD initiative, to the exclusion of other possibilities, including Non-timber Forest Products (NTFP-there was a notable lack of venues for discussing the relevance of NTFP projects for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and poverty alleviation. This paper contrasts the treatment of NTFP and REDD at the WCC and discusses how the exclusion of NTFP from these discussions will probably affect its inclusion in the conservation agenda and the future design and funding of conservation projects. The paper also shares some ideas on unexplored complementarities between NTFP and REDD for climate change mitigation, showing that an opportunity was lost at the Fourth WCC for promoting NTFP as an additional market-based approach to conservation.

  14. Proceedings: Fourth Workshop on Mining Scientific Datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamath, C

    2001-07-24

    Commercial applications of data mining in areas such as e-commerce, market-basket analysis, text-mining, and web-mining have taken on a central focus in the JCDD community. However, there is a significant amount of innovative data mining work taking place in the context of scientific and engineering applications that is not well represented in the mainstream KDD conferences. For example, scientific data mining techniques are being developed and applied to diverse fields such as remote sensing, physics, chemistry, biology, astronomy, structural mechanics, computational fluid dynamics etc. In these areas, data mining frequently complements and enhances existing analysis methods based on statistics, exploratory data analysis, and domain-specific approaches. On the surface, it may appear that data from one scientific field, say genomics, is very different from another field, such as physics. However, despite their diversity, there is much that is common across the mining of scientific and engineering data. For example, techniques used to identify objects in images are very similar, regardless of whether the images came from a remote sensing application, a physics experiment, an astronomy observation, or a medical study. Further, with data mining being applied to new types of data, such as mesh data from scientific simulations, there is the opportunity to apply and extend data mining to new scientific domains. This one-day workshop brings together data miners analyzing science data and scientists from diverse fields to share their experiences, learn how techniques developed in one field can be applied in another, and better understand some of the newer techniques being developed in the KDD community. This is the fourth workshop on the topic of Mining Scientific Data sets; for information on earlier workshops, see http://www.ahpcrc.org/conferences/. This workshop continues the tradition of addressing challenging problems in a field where the diversity of applications is

  15. Study of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI. Materials and methods: Nine patients with intraventricular cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle were studied. The diagnosis was confirmed by surgery in all cases. All of these patients were examined systematically before the operation and studied with CSF cinema MRI in mid sagittal section and finger-gated scan technique. Results: (1) The path of CSF flow was directly displayed. All cysticercosis presented as a filling defect, and a cyst with a smooth wall. (2) The ventricular compliance was normal in cysticercosis. (3) The cysticercosis in active stage was free in the fourth ventricle and could be rolled over, its shape might change slightly within a cardiac cycle. In the degenerative stage, its wall could adhere to the ependyma and obstruct the CSF flow. Conclusion: CSF cinema MRI can demonstrate the degree of obstruction and pattern of CSF flow in cysticercosis of the fourth ventricle, thereby providing useful information for proper management

  16. Scientific climate change information by collaborative venture and digital portal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubelaar-Versluis, W.

    2010-09-01

    Klimaatportaal is the digital entry of Dutch ‘climate' knowledge centres, which are collaborated in the Platform Communication on Climate Change (PCCC). This collaborative venture was established in 2003 by the Dutch climate research community to improve the quality, efficiency and effectiveness of the communication of Dutch climate research. By now, eight Dutch knowledge centres are participating and still more want to join. The Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) supports the PCCC and the project is implemented in collaboration with the BSIK ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning' programme. The website provides actual and background climate change information for a wide audience on the national scale from policy makers, media to general public. By supplying integral climate information, such as observations of climate change, causes and consequences of climate system, adaptation, mitigation and energy issues, a wide spectrum of target groups will be served. The information is offered in different forms, because of the needs of different target groups. Klimaatportaal contains therefore news on climate issues, frequently asked questions and popular science reports, like the annually brochure De Staat van het Klimaat (‘The State of the Climate'). Recently, also a portal for students is added, where they can find information for their assignments. Beside the website, PCCC is organising activities as symposia and workshops and is supplying information on international issues, for example the content of the Kyoto protocol and the IPCC fourth assessment report (2007). Finally, informing the public through contacts with the media is also an important part of the PCCC. The presentation will address the strengths and weaknesses of this approach which may serve as an example for combining knowledge in outreach activities in other countries.

  17. Fourth-order partial differential equations for effective image denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongjai Kim

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns mathematical image denoising methods incorporating fourth-order partial differential equations (PDEs. We introduce and analyze piecewise planarity conditions (PPCs with which unconstrained fourth-order variational models in continuum converge to a piecewise planar image. It has been observed that fourth-order variational models holding PPCs can restore better images than models without PPCs and second-order models. Numerical schemes are presented in detail and various examples in image denoising are provided to verify the claim.

  18. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. Methodological Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science. 25 refs

  19. Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Laepple, T; Laepple, Thomas; Jewson, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.

  20. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  1. On a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sui-Sun Cheng

    1984-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with sequences that satisfy a class of fourth order linear recurrence equations. Basic properties of such sequences are derived. In addition, we discuss the oscillatory and nonoscillatory behavior of such sequences.

  2. Properties of bound states containing fourth family quarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The heavy fourth generation of quarks that have sufficiently small mixing with the three known SM families form hadrons. In the present work, we calculate the masses and decay constants of mesons containing either both quarks from the fourth generation or one from fourth family and the other from observed SM quarks, namely charm or bottom quark, in the framework of the QCD sum rules. In the calculations, the two gluon condensate diagrams as nonperturbative contributions are taken into account. The obtained numerical results are reduced to the known masses and decay constants of the b-bar b and c-bar c quarkonia, when the fourth family quark is replaced by the bottom or charm quark.

  3. Neurocysticercosis: regression of a fourth ventricular cyst with praziquantel.

    OpenAIRE

    Allcut, D A; Coulthard, A

    1991-01-01

    Symptomatic intraventricular cysticerci are said to respond poorly to the anticestodial agent praziquantel. A case is reported of rapid regression of a large cyst of the fourth ventricle after oral praziquantel, avoiding the need for surgery.

  4. New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Lutz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3. We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making

  5. Fourth Generation Pseudoscalar Quarkonium Production and Observability at Hadron Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Arik, E; Cetin, S A; Sultansoy, S F; 10.1103/PhysRevD.66.116006

    2002-01-01

    The pseudoscalar quarkonium state, eta_4 1^S_0, formed by the Standard Model (SM) fourth generation quarks, is the best candidate among the fourth generation quarkonia to be produced at the LHC and VLHC. The production of this J^{PC} = 0^{-+} resonance is discussed and the background processes are studied to obtain the integrated luminosity limits for the discovery, depending on its mass.

  6. The Fourth SM Family Neutrino at Future Linear Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Çiftçi, A K; Sultansoy, S

    2005-01-01

    It is known that Flavor Democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three family fermions Flavor Democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton CKM matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac $(\

  7. Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a

  8. Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

    CERN Document Server

    Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aguilo, Ernest; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hammer, Josef; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Pernicka, Manfred; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Walzel, Gerhard; Widl, Edmund; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Selvaggi, Michele; Staykova, Zlatka; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Marcken, Gil; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Verwilligen, Piet; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Schul, Nicolas; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Custódio, Analu; Da Costa, Eliza Melo; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Oguri, Vitor; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Zang, Jingjing; Zhang, Zhen; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Shuang; Guo, Yifei; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Teng, Haiyun; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zhu, Bo; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Osorio Oliveros, Andres Felipe; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Morovic, Srecko; Attikis, Alexandros; Galanti, Mario; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Khalil, Shaaban; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkinen, Mika Aatos; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Ungaro, Donatella; Wendland, Lauri; Banzuzi, Kukka; Karjalainen, Ahti; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath; Dejardin, Marc; Denegri, Daniel; Fabbro, Bernard; Faure, Jean-Louis; Ferri, Federico; Ganjour, Serguei; Givernaud, Alain; Gras, Philippe; Hamel de Monchenault, Gautier; Jarry, Patrick; Locci, Elizabeth; Malcles, Julie; Millischer, Laurent; Nayak, Aruna; Rander, John; Rosowsky, André; Shreyber, Irina; Titov, Maksym; Baffioni, Stephanie; Beaudette, Florian; Benhabib, Lamia; Bianchini, Lorenzo; Bluj, Michal; Broutin, Clementine; Busson, Philippe; Charlot, Claude; Daci, Nadir; Dahms, Torsten; Dobrzynski, Ludwik; Granier de Cassagnac, Raphael; Haguenauer, Maurice; Miné, Philippe; Mironov, Camelia; Naranjo, Ivo Nicolas; Nguyen, Matthew; Ochando, Christophe; Paganini, Pascal; Sabes, David; Salerno, Roberto; Sirois, Yves; Veelken, Christian; Zabi, Alexandre; Agram, Jean-Laurent; Andrea, Jeremy; Bloch, Daniel; Bodin, David; Brom, Jean-Marie; Cardaci, Marco; Chabert, Eric Christian; Collard, Caroline; Conte, Eric; Drouhin, Frédéric; Ferro, Cristina; Fontaine, Jean-Charles; Gelé, Denis; Goerlach, Ulrich; Juillot, Pierre; Le Bihan, Anne-Catherine; Van Hove, Pierre; Fassi, Farida; Mercier, Damien; Beauceron, Stephanie; Beaupere, Nicolas; Bondu, Olivier; Boudoul, Gaelle; Chasserat, Julien; Chierici, Roberto; Contardo, Didier; Depasse, Pierre; El Mamouni, Houmani; Fay, Jean; Gascon, Susan; Gouzevitch, Maxime; Ille, Bernard; Kurca, Tibor; Lethuillier, Morgan; Mirabito, Laurent; Perries, Stephane; Sordini, Viola; Tschudi, Yohann; Verdier, Patrice; Viret, Sébastien; Tsamalaidze, Zviad; Anagnostou, Georgios; Beranek, Sarah; Edelhoff, Matthias; Feld, Lutz; Heracleous, Natalie; Hindrichs, Otto; Jussen, Ruediger; Klein, Katja; Merz, Jennifer; Ostapchuk, Andrey; Perieanu, Adrian; Raupach, Frank; Sammet, Jan; Schael, Stefan; Sprenger, Daniel; Weber, Hendrik; Wittmer, Bruno; Zhukov, Valery; Ata, Metin; Caudron, Julien; Dietz-Laursonn, Erik; Duchardt, Deborah; Erdmann, Martin; Fischer, Robert; Güth, Andreas; Hebbeker, Thomas; Heidemann, Carsten; Hoepfner, Kerstin; Klingebiel, Dennis; Kreuzer, Peter; Magass, Carsten; Merschmeyer, Markus; Meyer, Arnd; Olschewski, Mark; Papacz, Paul; Pieta, Holger; Reithler, Hans; Schmitz, Stefan Antonius; Sonnenschein, Lars; Steggemann, Jan; Teyssier, Daniel; Weber, Martin; Bontenackels, Michael; Cherepanov, Vladimir; Erdogan, Yusuf; Flügge, Günter; Geenen, Heiko; Geisler, Matthias; Haj Ahmad, Wael; Hoehle, Felix; Kargoll, Bastian; Kress, Thomas; Kuessel, Yvonne; Nowack, Andreas; Perchalla, Lars; Pooth, Oliver; Sauerland, Philip; Stahl, Achim; Aldaya Martin, Maria; Behr, Joerg; Behrenhoff, Wolf; Behrens, Ulf; Bergholz, Matthias; Bethani, Agni; Borras, Kerstin; Burgmeier, Armin; Cakir, Altan; Calligaris, Luigi; Campbell, Alan; Castro, Elena; Costanza, Francesco; Dammann, Dirk; Diez Pardos, Carmen; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, Doris; Flucke, Gero; Geiser, Achim; Glushkov, Ivan; Gunnellini, Paolo; Habib, Shiraz; Hauk, Johannes; Hellwig, Gregor; Jung, Hannes; Kasemann, Matthias; Katsas, Panagiotis; Kleinwort, Claus; Kluge, Hannelies; Knutsson, Albert; Krämer, Mira; Krücker, Dirk; Kuznetsova, Ekaterina; Lange, Wolfgang; Lohmann, Wolfgang; Lutz, Benjamin; Mankel, Rainer; Marfin, Ihar; Marienfeld, Markus; Melzer-Pellmann, Isabell-Alissandra; Meyer, Andreas Bernhard; Mnich, Joachim; Mussgiller, Andreas; Naumann-Emme, Sebastian; Olzem, Jan; Perrey, Hanno; Petrukhin, Alexey; Pitzl, Daniel; Raspereza, Alexei; Ribeiro Cipriano, Pedro M; Riedl, Caroline; Ron, Elias; Rosin, Michele; Salfeld-Nebgen, Jakob; Schmidt, Ringo; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Sen, Niladri; Spiridonov, Alexander; Stein, Matthias; Walsh, Roberval; Wissing, Christoph; Autermann, Christian; Blobel, Volker; Draeger, Jula; Enderle, Holger; Erfle, Joachim; Gebbert, Ulla; Görner, Martin; Hermanns, Thomas; Höing, Rebekka Sophie; Kaschube, Kolja; Kaussen, Gordon; Kirschenmann, Henning; Klanner, Robert; Lange, Jörn; Mura, Benedikt; Nowak, Friederike; Peiffer, Thomas; Pietsch, Niklas; Rathjens, Denis; Sander, Christian; Schettler, Hannes; Schleper, Peter; Schlieckau, Eike; Schmidt, Alexander; Schröder, Matthias; Schum, Torben; Seidel, Markus; Sola, Valentina; Stadie, Hartmut; Steinbrück, Georg; Thomsen, Jan; Vanelderen, Lukas; Barth, Christian; Berger, Joram; Böser, Christian; Chwalek, Thorsten; De Boer, Wim; Descroix, Alexis; Dierlamm, Alexander; Feindt, Michael; Guthoff, Moritz; Hackstein, Christoph; Hartmann, Frank; Hauth, Thomas; Heinrich, Michael; Held, Hauke; Hoffmann, Karl-Heinz; Honc, Simon; Katkov, Igor; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Lobelle Pardo, Patricia; Martschei, Daniel; Mueller, Steffen; Müller, Thomas; Niegel, Martin; Nürnberg, Andreas; Oberst, Oliver; Oehler, Andreas; Ott, Jochen; Quast, Gunter; Rabbertz, Klaus; Ratnikov, Fedor; Ratnikova, Natalia; Röcker, Steffen; Scheurer, Armin; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schott, Gregory; Simonis, Hans-Jürgen; Stober, Fred-Markus Helmut; Troendle, Daniel; Ulrich, Ralf; Wagner-Kuhr, Jeannine; Wayand, Stefan; Weiler, Thomas; Zeise, Manuel; Daskalakis, Georgios; Geralis, Theodoros; Kesisoglou, Stilianos; Kyriakis, Aristotelis; Loukas, Demetrios; Manolakos, Ioannis; Markou, Athanasios; Markou, Christos; Mavrommatis, Charalampos; Ntomari, Eleni; Gouskos, Loukas; Mertzimekis, Theodoros; Panagiotou, Apostolos; Saoulidou, Niki; Evangelou, Ioannis; Foudas, Costas; Kokkas, Panagiotis; Manthos, Nikolaos; Papadopoulos, Ioannis; Patras, Vaios; Bencze, Gyorgy; Hajdu, Csaba; Hidas, Pàl; Horvath, Dezso; Sikler, Ferenc; Veszpremi, Viktor; Vesztergombi, Gyorgy; Beni, Noemi; Czellar, Sandor; Molnar, Jozsef; Palinkas, Jozsef; Szillasi, Zoltan; Karancsi, János; Raics, Peter; Trocsanyi, Zoltan Laszlo; Ujvari, Balazs; Beri, Suman Bala; Bhatnagar, Vipin; Dhingra, Nitish; Gupta, Ruchi; Kaur, Manjit; Mehta, Manuk Zubin; Nishu, Nishu; Saini, Lovedeep Kaur; Sharma, Archana; Singh, Jasbir; Kumar, Ashok; Kumar, Arun; Ahuja, Sudha; Bhardwaj, Ashutosh; Choudhary, Brajesh C; Malhotra, Shivali; Naimuddin, Md; Ranjan, Kirti; Sharma, Varun; Shivpuri, Ram Krishen; Banerjee, Sunanda; Bhattacharya, Satyaki; Dutta, Suchandra; Gomber, Bhawna; Jain, Sandhya; Jain, Shilpi; Khurana, Raman; Sarkar, Subir; Sharan, Manoj; Abdulsalam, Abdulla; Choudhury, Rajani Kant; Dutta, Dipanwita; Kailas, Swaminathan; Kumar, Vineet; Mehta, Pourus; Mohanty, Ajit Kumar; Pant, Lalit Mohan; Shukla, Prashant; Aziz, Tariq; Ganguly, Sanmay; Guchait, Monoranjan; Maity, Manas; Majumder, Gobinda; Mazumdar, Kajari; Mohanty, Gagan Bihari; Parida, Bibhuti; Sudhakar, Katta; Wickramage, Nadeesha; Banerjee, Sudeshna; Dugad, Shashikant; Arfaei, Hessamaddin; Bakhshiansohi, Hamed; Etesami, Seyed Mohsen; Fahim, Ali; Hashemi, Majid; Hesari, Hoda; Jafari, Abideh; Khakzad, Mohsen; Mohammadi Najafabadi, Mojtaba; Paktinat Mehdiabadi, Saeid; Safarzadeh, Batool; Zeinali, Maryam; Abbrescia, Marcello; Barbone, Lucia; Calabria, Cesare; Chhibra, Simranjit Singh; Colaleo, Anna; Creanza, Donato; De Filippis, Nicola; De Palma, Mauro; Fiore, Luigi; Iaselli, Giuseppe; Lusito, Letizia; Maggi, Giorgio; Maggi, Marcello; Marangelli, Bartolomeo; My, Salvatore; Nuzzo, Salvatore; Pacifico, Nicola; Pompili, Alexis; Pugliese, Gabriella; Selvaggi, Giovanna; Silvestris, Lucia; Singh, Gurpreet; Venditti, Rosamaria; Zito, Giuseppe; Abbiendi, Giovanni; Benvenuti, Alberto; Bonacorsi, Daniele; Braibant-Giacomelli, Sylvie; Brigliadori, Luca; Capiluppi, Paolo; Castro, Andrea; Cavallo, Francesca Romana; Cuffiani, Marco; Dallavalle, Gaetano-Marco; Fabbri, Fabrizio; Fanfani, Alessandra; Fasanella, Daniele; Giacomelli, Paolo; Grandi, Claudio; Guiducci, Luigi; Marcellini, Stefano; Masetti, Gianni; Meneghelli, Marco; Montanari, Alessandro; Navarria, Francesco; Odorici, Fabrizio; Perrotta, Andrea; Primavera, Federica; Rossi, Antonio; Rovelli, Tiziano; Siroli, Gian Piero; Travaglini, Riccardo; Albergo, Sebastiano; Cappello, Gigi; Chiorboli, Massimiliano; Costa, Salvatore; Potenza, Renato; Tricomi, Alessia; Tuve, Cristina; Barbagli, Giuseppe; Ciulli, Vitaliano; Civinini, Carlo; D'Alessandro, Raffaello; Focardi, Ettore; Frosali, Simone; Gallo, Elisabetta; Gonzi, Sandro; Meschini, Marco; Paoletti, Simone; Sguazzoni, Giacomo; Tropiano, Antonio; Benussi, Luigi; Bianco, Stefano; Colafranceschi, Stefano; Fabbri, Franco; Piccolo, Davide; Fabbricatore, Pasquale; Musenich, Riccardo; Tosi, Silvano; Benaglia, Andrea; De Guio, Federico; Di Matteo, Leonardo; Fiorendi, Sara; Gennai, Simone; Ghezzi, Alessio; Malvezzi, Sandra; Manzoni, Riccardo Andrea; Martelli, Arabella; Massironi, Andrea; Menasce, Dario; Moroni, Luigi; Paganoni, Marco; Pedrini, Daniele; Ragazzi, Stefano; Redaelli, Nicola; Sala, Silvano; Tabarelli de Fatis, Tommaso; Buontempo, Salvatore; Carrillo Montoya, Camilo Andres; Cavallo, Nicola; De Cosa, Annapaola; Dogangun, Oktay; Fabozzi, Francesco; Iorio, Alberto Orso Maria; Lista, Luca; Meola, Sabino; Merola, Mario; Paolucci, Pierluigi; Azzi, Patrizia; Bacchetta, Nicola; Bisello, Dario; Branca, Antonio; Carlin, Roberto; Checchia, Paolo; Dorigo, Tommaso; Dosselli, Umberto; Gasparini, Fabrizio; Gasparini, Ugo; Gozzelino, Andrea; Kanishchev, Konstantin; Lacaprara, Stefano; Lazzizzera, Ignazio; Margoni, Martino; Meneguzzo, Anna Teresa; Pazzini, Jacopo; Pozzobon, Nicola; Ronchese, Paolo; Simonetto, Franco; Torassa, Ezio; Tosi, Mia; Vanini, Sara; Zotto, Pierluigi; Zumerle, Gianni; Gabusi, Michele; Ratti, Sergio P; Riccardi, Cristina; Torre, Paola; Vitulo, Paolo; Biasini, Maurizio; Bilei, Gian Mario; Fanò, Livio; Lariccia, Paolo; Lucaroni, Andrea; Mantovani, Giancarlo; Menichelli, Mauro; Nappi, Aniello; Romeo, Francesco; Saha, Anirban; Santocchia, Attilio; Spiezia, Aniello; Taroni, Silvia; Azzurri, Paolo; Bagliesi, Giuseppe; Boccali, Tommaso; Broccolo, Giuseppe; Castaldi, Rino; D'Agnolo, Raffaele Tito; Dell'Orso, Roberto; Fiori, Francesco; Foà, Lorenzo; Giassi, Alessandro; Kraan, Aafke; Ligabue, Franco; Lomtadze, Teimuraz; Martini, Luca; Messineo, Alberto; Palla, Fabrizio; Rizzi, Andrea; Serban, Alin Titus; Spagnolo, Paolo; Squillacioti, Paola; Tenchini, Roberto; Tonelli, Guido; Venturi, Andrea; Verdini, Piero Giorgio; Barone, Luciano; Cavallari, Francesca; Del Re, Daniele; Diemoz, Marcella; Fanelli, Cristiano; Grassi, Marco; Longo, Egidio; Meridiani, Paolo; Micheli, Francesco; Nourbakhsh, Shervin; Organtini, Giovanni; Paramatti, Riccardo; Rahatlou, Shahram; Sigamani, Michael; Soffi, Livia; Amapane, Nicola; Arcidiacono, Roberta; Argiro, Stefano; Arneodo, Michele; Biino, Cristina; Cartiglia, Nicolo; Costa, Marco; De Remigis, Paolo; Demaria, Natale; Mariotti, Chiara; Maselli, Silvia; Migliore, Ernesto; Monaco, Vincenzo; Musich, Marco; Obertino, Maria Margherita; Pastrone, Nadia; Pelliccioni, Mario; Potenza, Alberto; Romero, Alessandra; Sacchi, Roberto; Solano, Ada; Staiano, Amedeo; Vilela Pereira, Antonio; Belforte, Stefano; Candelise, Vieri; Cossutti, Fabio; Della Ricca, Giuseppe; Gobbo, Benigno; Marone, Matteo; Montanino, Damiana; Penzo, Aldo; Schizzi, Andrea; Heo, Seong Gu; Kim, Tae Yeon; Nam, Soon-Kwon; Chang, Sunghyun; Kim, Dong Hee; Kim, Gui Nyun; Kong, Dae Jung; Park, Hyangkyu; Ro, Sang-Ryul; Son, Dong-Chul; Son, Taejin; Kim, Jae Yool; Kim, Zero Jaeho; Song, Sanghyeon; Choi, Suyong; Gyun, Dooyeon; Hong, Byung-Sik; Jo, Mihee; Kim, Hyunchul; Kim, Tae Jeong; Lee, Kyong Sei; Moon, Dong Ho; Park, Sung Keun; Choi, Minkyoo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Chawon; Park, Inkyu; Park, Sangnam; Ryu, Geonmo; Cho, Yongjin; Choi, Young-Il; Choi, Young Kyu; Goh, Junghwan; Kim, Min Suk; Kwon, Eunhyang; Lee, Byounghoon; Lee, Jongseok; Lee, Sungeun; Seo, Hyunkwan; Yu, Intae; Bilinskas, Mykolas Jurgis; Grigelionis, Ignas; Janulis, Mindaugas; Juodagalvis, Andrius; Castilla-Valdez, Heriberto; De La Cruz-Burelo, Eduard; Heredia-de La Cruz, Ivan; Lopez-Fernandez, Ricardo; Magaña Villalba, Ricardo; Martínez-Ortega, Jorge; Sánchez-Hernández, Alberto; Villasenor-Cendejas, Luis Manuel; Carrillo Moreno, Salvador; Vazquez Valencia, Fabiola; Salazar Ibarguen, Humberto Antonio; Casimiro Linares, Edgar; Morelos Pineda, Antonio; Reyes-Santos, Marco A; Krofcheck, David; Bell, Alan James; Butler, Philip H; Doesburg, Robert; Reucroft, Steve; Silverwood, Hamish; Ahmad, Muhammad; Ansari, Muhammad Hamid; Asghar, Muhammad Irfan; Hoorani, Hafeez R; Khalid, Shoaib; Khan, Wajid Ali; Khurshid, Taimoor; Qazi, Shamona; Shah, Mehar Ali; Shoaib, Muhammad; Bialkowska, Helena; Boimska, Bozena; Frueboes, Tomasz; Gokieli, Ryszard; Górski, Maciej; Kazana, Malgorzata; Nawrocki, Krzysztof; Romanowska-Rybinska, Katarzyna; Szleper, Michal; Wrochna, Grzegorz; Zalewski, Piotr; Brona, Grzegorz; Bunkowski, Karol; Cwiok, Mikolaj; Dominik, Wojciech; Doroba, Krzysztof; Kalinowski, Artur; Konecki, Marcin; Krolikowski, Jan; Almeida, Nuno; Bargassa, Pedrame; David Tinoco Mendes, Andre; Faccioli, Pietro; Ferreira Parracho, Pedro Guilherme; Gallinaro, Michele; Seixas, Joao; Varela, Joao; Vischia, Pietro; Belotelov, Ivan; Bunin, Pavel; Gavrilenko, Mikhail; Golutvin, Igor; Kamenev, Alexey; Karjavin, Vladimir; Kozlov, Guennady; Lanev, Alexander; Malakhov, Alexander; Moisenz, Petr; Palichik, Vladimir; Perelygin, Victor; Savina, Maria; Shmatov, Sergey; Smirnov, Vitaly; Volodko, Anton; Zarubin, Anatoli; Evstyukhin, Sergey; Golovtsov, Victor; Ivanov, Yury; Kim, Victor; Levchenko, Petr; Murzin, Victor; Oreshkin, Vadim; Smirnov, Igor; Sulimov, Valentin; Uvarov, Lev; Vavilov, Sergey; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Andrey; Andreev, Yuri; Dermenev, Alexander; Gninenko, Sergei; Golubev, Nikolai; Kirsanov, Mikhail; Krasnikov, Nikolai; Matveev, Viktor; Pashenkov, Anatoli; Tlisov, Danila; Toropin, Alexander; Epshteyn, Vladimir; Erofeeva, Maria; Gavrilov, Vladimir; Kossov, Mikhail; Lychkovskaya, Natalia; Popov, Vladimir; Safronov, Grigory; Semenov, Sergey; Stolin, Viatcheslav; Vlasov, Evgueni; Zhokin, Alexander; Belyaev, Andrey; Boos, Edouard; Bunichev, Viacheslav; Dubinin, Mikhail; Dudko, Lev; Gribushin, Andrey; Klyukhin, Vyacheslav; Kodolova, Olga; Lokhtin, Igor; Markina, Anastasia; Obraztsov, Stepan; Perfilov, Maxim; Petrushanko, Sergey; Popov, Andrey; Sarycheva, Ludmila; Savrin, Viktor; Snigirev, Alexander; Andreev, Vladimir; Azarkin, Maksim; Dremin, Igor; Kirakosyan, Martin; Leonidov, Andrey; Mesyats, Gennady; Rusakov, Sergey V; Vinogradov, Alexey; Azhgirey, Igor; Bayshev, Igor; Bitioukov, Sergei; Grishin, Viatcheslav; Kachanov, Vassili; Konstantinov, Dmitri; Korablev, Andrey; Krychkine, Victor; Petrov, Vladimir; Ryutin, Roman; Sobol, Andrei; Tourtchanovitch, Leonid; Troshin, Sergey; Tyurin, Nikolay; Uzunian, Andrey; Volkov, Alexey; Adzic, Petar; Djordjevic, Milos; Ekmedzic, Marko; Krpic, Dragomir; Milosevic, Jovan; Aguilar-Benitez, Manuel; Alcaraz Maestre, Juan; Arce, Pedro; Battilana, Carlo; Calvo, Enrique; Cerrada, Marcos; Chamizo Llatas, Maria; Colino, Nicanor; De La Cruz, Begona; Delgado Peris, Antonio; Domínguez Vázquez, Daniel; Fernandez Bedoya, Cristina; Fernández Ramos, Juan Pablo; Ferrando, Antonio; Flix, Jose; Fouz, Maria Cruz; Garcia-Abia, Pablo; Gonzalez Lopez, Oscar; Goy Lopez, Silvia; Hernandez, Jose M; Josa, Maria Isabel; Merino, Gonzalo; Puerta Pelayo, Jesus; Quintario Olmeda, Adrián; Redondo, Ignacio; Romero, Luciano; Santaolalla, Javier; Soares, Mara Senghi; Willmott, Carlos; Albajar, Carmen; Codispoti, Giuseppe; de Trocóniz, Jorge F; Brun, Hugues; Cuevas, Javier; Fernandez Menendez, Javier; Folgueras, Santiago; Gonzalez Caballero, Isidro; Lloret Iglesias, Lara; Piedra Gomez, Jonatan; Brochero Cifuentes, Javier Andres; Cabrillo, Iban Jose; Calderon, Alicia; Chuang, Shan-Huei; Duarte Campderros, Jordi; Felcini, Marta; Fernandez, Marcos; Gomez, Gervasio; Gonzalez Sanchez, Javier; Graziano, Alberto; Jorda, Clara; Lopez Virto, Amparo; Marco, Jesus; Marco, Rafael; Martinez Rivero, Celso; Matorras, Francisco; Munoz Sanchez, Francisca Javiela; Rodrigo, Teresa; Rodríguez-Marrero, Ana Yaiza; Ruiz-Jimeno, Alberto; Scodellaro, Luca; Sobron Sanudo, Mar; Vila, Ivan; Vilar Cortabitarte, Rocio; Abbaneo, Duccio; Auffray, Etiennette; Auzinger, Georg; Bachtis, Michail; Baillon, Paul; Ball, Austin; Barney, David; Benitez, Jose F; Bernet, Colin; Bianchi, Giovanni; Bloch, Philippe; Bocci, Andrea; Bonato, Alessio; Botta, Cristina; Breuker, Horst; Camporesi, Tiziano; Cerminara, Gianluca; Christiansen, Tim; Coarasa Perez, Jose Antonio; D'Enterria, David; Dabrowski, Anne; De Roeck, Albert; Di Guida, Salvatore; Dobson, Marc; Dupont-Sagorin, Niels; Elliott-Peisert, Anna; Frisch, Benjamin; Funk, Wolfgang; Georgiou, Georgios; Giffels, Manuel; Gigi, Dominique; Gill, Karl; Giordano, Domenico; Giunta, Marina; Glege, Frank; Gomez-Reino Garrido, Robert; Govoni, Pietro; Gowdy, Stephen; Guida, Roberto; Hansen, Magnus; Harris, Philip; Hartl, Christian; Harvey, John; Hegner, Benedikt; Hinzmann, Andreas; Innocente, Vincenzo; Janot, Patrick; Kaadze, Ketino; Karavakis, Edward; Kousouris, Konstantinos; Lecoq, Paul; Lee, Yen-Jie; Lenzi, Piergiulio; Lourenco, Carlos; Magini, Nicolo; Maki, Tuula; Malberti, Martina; Malgeri, Luca; Mannelli, Marcello; Masetti, Lorenzo; Meijers, Frans; Mersi, Stefano; Meschi, Emilio; Moser, Roland; Mozer, Matthias Ulrich; Mulders, Martijn; Musella, Pasquale; Nesvold, Erik; Orimoto, Toyoko; Orsini, Luciano; Palencia Cortezon, Enrique; Perez, Emmanuelle; Perrozzi, Luca; Petrilli, Achille; Pfeiffer, Andreas; Pierini, Maurizio; Pimiä, Martti; Piparo, Danilo; Polese, Giovanni; Quertenmont, Loic; Racz, Attila; Reece, William; Rodrigues Antunes, Joao; Rolandi, Gigi; Rovelli, Chiara; Rovere, Marco; Sakulin, Hannes; Santanastasio, Francesco; Schäfer, Christoph; Schwick, Christoph; Segoni, Ilaria; Sekmen, Sezen; Sharma, Archana; Siegrist, Patrice; Silva, Pedro; Simon, Michal; Sphicas, Paraskevas; Spiga, Daniele; Tsirou, Andromachi; Veres, Gabor Istvan; Vlimant, Jean-Roch; Wöhri, Hermine Katharina; Worm, Steven; Zeuner, Wolfram Dietrich; Bertl, Willi; Deiters, Konrad; Erdmann, Wolfram; Gabathuler, Kurt; Horisberger, Roland; Ingram, Quentin; Kaestli, Hans-Christian; König, Stefan; Kotlinski, Danek; Langenegger, Urs; Meier, Frank; Renker, Dieter; Rohe, Tilman; Sibille, Jennifer; Bäni, Lukas; Bortignon, Pierluigi; Buchmann, Marco-Andrea; Casal, Bruno; Chanon, Nicolas; Deisher, Amanda; Dissertori, Günther; Dittmar, Michael; Donegà, Mauro; Dünser, Marc; Eugster, Jürg; Freudenreich, Klaus; Grab, Christoph; Hits, Dmitry; Lecomte, Pierre; Lustermann, Werner; Marini, Andrea Carlo; Martinez Ruiz del Arbol, Pablo; Mohr, Niklas; Moortgat, Filip; Nägeli, Christoph; Nef, Pascal; Nessi-Tedaldi, Francesca; Pandolfi, Francesco; Pape, Luc; Pauss, Felicitas; Peruzzi, Marco; Ronga, Frederic Jean; Rossini, Marco; Sala, Leonardo; Sanchez, Ann - Karin; Starodumov, Andrei; Stieger, Benjamin; Takahashi, Maiko; Tauscher, Ludwig; Thea, Alessandro; Theofilatos, Konstantinos; Treille, Daniel; Urscheler, Christina; Wallny, Rainer; Weber, Hannsjoerg Artur; Wehrli, Lukas; Amsler, Claude; Chiochia, Vincenzo; De Visscher, Simon; Favaro, Carlotta; Ivova Rikova, Mirena; Millan Mejias, Barbara; Otiougova, Polina; Robmann, Peter; Snoek, Hella; Tupputi, Salvatore; Verzetti, Mauro; Chang, Yuan-Hann; Chen, Kuan-Hsin; Kuo, Chia-Ming; Li, Syue-Wei; Lin, Willis; Liu, Zong-Kai; Lu, Yun-Ju; Mekterovic, Darko; Singh, Anil; Volpe, Roberta; Yu, Shin-Shan; Bartalini, Paolo; Chang, Paoti; Chang, You-Hao; Chang, Yu-Wei; Chao, Yuan; Chen, Kai-Feng; Dietz, Charles; Grundler, Ulysses; Hou, George Wei-Shu; Hsiung, Yee; Kao, Kai-Yi; Lei, Yeong-Jyi; Lu, Rong-Shyang; Majumder, Devdatta; Petrakou, Eleni; Shi, Xin; Shiu, Jing-Ge; Tzeng, Yeng-Ming; Wan, Xia; Wang, Minzu; Adiguzel, Aytul; Bakirci, Mustafa Numan; Cerci, Salim; Dozen, Candan; Dumanoglu, Isa; Eskut, Eda; Girgis, Semiray; Gokbulut, Gul; Gurpinar, Emine; Hos, Ilknur; Kangal, Evrim Ersin; Karaman, Turker; Karapinar, Guler; Kayis Topaksu, Aysel; Onengut, Gulsen; Ozdemir, Kadri; Ozturk, Sertac; Polatoz, Ayse; Sogut, Kenan; Sunar Cerci, Deniz; Tali, Bayram; Topakli, Huseyin; Vergili, Latife Nukhet; Vergili, Mehmet; Akin, Ilina Vasileva; Aliev, Takhmasib; Bilin, Bugra; Bilmis, Selcuk; Deniz, Muhammed; Gamsizkan, Halil; Guler, Ali Murat; Ocalan, Kadir; Ozpineci, Altug; Serin, Meltem; Sever, Ramazan; Surat, Ugur Emrah; Yalvac, Metin; Yildirim, Eda; Zeyrek, Mehmet; Gülmez, Erhan; Isildak, Bora; Kaya, Mithat; Kaya, Ozlem; Ozkorucuklu, Suat; Sonmez, Nasuf; Cankocak, Kerem; Levchuk, Leonid; Bostock, Francis; Brooke, James John; Clement, Emyr; Cussans, David; Flacher, Henning; Frazier, Robert; Goldstein, Joel; Grimes, Mark; Heath, Greg P; Heath, Helen F; Kreczko, Lukasz; Metson, Simon; Newbold, Dave M; Nirunpong, Kachanon; Poll, Anthony; Senkin, Sergey; Smith, Vincent J; Williams, Thomas; Basso, Lorenzo; Bell, Ken W; Belyaev, Alexander; Brew, Christopher; Brown, Robert M; Cockerill, David JA; Coughlan, John A; Harder, Kristian; Harper, Sam; Jackson, James; Kennedy, Bruce W; Olaiya, Emmanuel; Petyt, David; Radburn-Smith, Benjamin Charles; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire; Tomalin, Ian R; Womersley, William John; Bainbridge, Robert; Ball, Gordon; Beuselinck, Raymond; Buchmuller, Oliver; Colling, David; Cripps, Nicholas; Cutajar, Michael; Dauncey, Paul; Davies, Gavin; Della Negra, Michel; Ferguson, William; Fulcher, Jonathan; Futyan, David; Gilbert, Andrew; Guneratne Bryer, Arlo; Hall, Geoffrey; Hatherell, Zoe; Hays, Jonathan; Iles, Gregory; Jarvis, Martyn; Karapostoli, Georgia; Lyons, Louis; Magnan, Anne-Marie; Marrouche, Jad; Mathias, Bryn; Nandi, Robin; Nash, Jordan; Nikitenko, Alexander; Papageorgiou, Anastasios; Pela, Joao; Pesaresi, Mark; Petridis, Konstantinos; Pioppi, Michele; Raymond, David Mark; Rogerson, Samuel; Rose, Andrew; Ryan, Matthew John; Seez, Christopher; Sharp, Peter; Sparrow, Alex; Stoye, Markus; Tapper, Alexander; Vazquez Acosta, Monica; Virdee, Tejinder; Wakefield, Stuart; Wardle, Nicholas; Whyntie, Tom; Chadwick, Matthew; Cole, Joanne; Hobson, Peter R; Khan, Akram; Kyberd, Paul; Leggat, Duncan; Leslie, Dawn; Martin, William; Reid, Ivan; Symonds, Philip; Teodorescu, Liliana; Turner, Mark; Hatakeyama, Kenichi; Liu, Hongxuan; Scarborough, Tara; Charaf, Otman; Henderson, Conor; Rumerio, Paolo; Avetisyan, Aram; Bose, Tulika; Fantasia, Cory; Heister, Arno; St John, Jason; Lawson, Philip; Lazic, Dragoslav; Rohlf, James; Sperka, David; Sulak, Lawrence; Alimena, Juliette; Bhattacharya, Saptaparna; Cutts, David; Ferapontov, Alexey; Heintz, Ulrich; Jabeen, Shabnam; Kukartsev, Gennadiy; Laird, Edward; Landsberg, Greg; Luk, Michael; Narain, Meenakshi; Nguyen, Duong; Segala, Michael; Sinthuprasith, Tutanon; Speer, Thomas; Tsang, Ka Vang; Breedon, Richard; Breto, Guillermo; Calderon De La Barca Sanchez, Manuel; Chauhan, Sushil; Chertok, Maxwell; Conway, John; Conway, Rylan; Cox, Peter Timothy; Dolen, James; Erbacher, Robin; Gardner, Michael; Houtz, Rachel; Ko, Winston; Kopecky, Alexandra; Lander, Richard; Miceli, Tia; Pellett, Dave; Ricci-tam, Francesca; Rutherford, Britney; Searle, Matthew; Smith, John; Squires, Michael; Tripathi, Mani; Vasquez Sierra, Ricardo; Andreev, Valeri; Cline, David; Cousins, Robert; Duris, Joseph; Erhan, Samim; Everaerts, Pieter; Farrell, Chris; Hauser, Jay; Ignatenko, Mikhail; Jarvis, Chad; Plager, Charles; Rakness, Gregory; Schlein, Peter; Traczyk, Piotr; Valuev, Vyacheslav; Weber, Matthias; Babb, John; Clare, Robert; Dinardo, Mauro Emanuele; Ellison, John Anthony; Gary, J William; Giordano, Ferdinando; Hanson, Gail; Jeng, Geng-Yuan; Liu, Hongliang; Long, Owen Rosser; Luthra, Arun; Nguyen, Harold; Paramesvaran, Sudarshan; Sturdy, Jared; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Wilken, Rachel; Wimpenny, Stephen; Andrews, Warren; Branson, James G; Cerati, Giuseppe Benedetto; Cittolin, Sergio; Evans, David; Golf, Frank; Holzner, André; Kelley, Ryan; Lebourgeois, Matthew; Letts, James; Macneill, Ian; Mangano, Boris; Padhi, Sanjay; Palmer, Christopher; Petrucciani, Giovanni; Pieri, Marco; Sani, Matteo; Sharma, Vivek; Simon, Sean; Sudano, Elizabeth; Tadel, Matevz; Tu, Yanjun; Vartak, Adish; Wasserbaech, Steven; Würthwein, Frank; Yagil, Avraham; Yoo, Jaehyeok; Barge, Derek; Bellan, Riccardo; Campagnari, Claudio; D'Alfonso, Mariarosaria; Danielson, Thomas; Flowers, Kristen; Geffert, Paul; Incandela, Joe; Justus, Christopher; Kalavase, Puneeth; Koay, Sue Ann; Kovalskyi, Dmytro; Krutelyov, Vyacheslav; Lowette, Steven; Mccoll, Nickolas; Pavlunin, Viktor; Rebassoo, Finn; Ribnik, Jacob; Richman, Jeffrey; Rossin, Roberto; Stuart, David; To, Wing; West, Christopher; Apresyan, Artur; Bornheim, Adolf; Chen, Yi; Di Marco, Emanuele; Duarte, Javier; Gataullin, Marat; Ma, Yousi; Mott, Alexander; Newman, Harvey B; Rogan, Christopher; Spiropulu, Maria; Timciuc, Vladlen; Veverka, Jan; Wilkinson, Richard; Xie, Si; Yang, Yong; Zhu, Ren-Yuan; Akgun, Bora; Azzolini, Virginia; Calamba, Aristotle; Carroll, Ryan; Ferguson, Thomas; Iiyama, Yutaro; Jang, Dong Wook; Liu, Yueh-Feng; Paulini, Manfred; Vogel, Helmut; Vorobiev, Igor; Cumalat, John Perry; Drell, Brian Robert; Edelmaier, Christopher; Ford, William T; Gaz, Alessandro; Heyburn, Bernadette; Luiggi Lopez, Eduardo; Smith, James; Stenson, Kevin; Ulmer, Keith; Wagner, Stephen Robert; Alexander, James; Chatterjee, Avishek; Eggert, Nicholas; Gibbons, Lawrence Kent; Heltsley, Brian; Khukhunaishvili, Aleko; Kreis, Benjamin; Mirman, Nathan; Nicolas Kaufman, Gala; Patterson, Juliet Ritchie; Ryd, Anders; Salvati, Emmanuele; Sun, Werner; Teo, Wee Don; Thom, Julia; Thompson, Joshua; Tucker, Jordan; Vaughan, Jennifer; Weng, Yao; Winstrom, Lucas; Wittich, Peter; Winn, Dave; Abdullin, Salavat; Albrow, Michael; Anderson, Jacob; Bauerdick, Lothar AT; Beretvas, Andrew; Berryhill, Jeffrey; Bhat, Pushpalatha C; Bloch, Ingo; Burkett, Kevin; Butler, Joel Nathan; Chetluru, Vasundhara; Cheung, Harry; Chlebana, Frank; Elvira, Victor Daniel; Fisk, Ian; Freeman, Jim; Gao, Yanyan; Green, Dan; Gutsche, Oliver; Hanlon, Jim; Harris, Robert M; Hirschauer, James; Hooberman, Benjamin; Jindariani, Sergo; Johnson, Marvin; Joshi, Umesh; Kilminster, Benjamin; Klima, Boaz; Kunori, Shuichi; Kwan, Simon; Leonidopoulos, Christos; Linacre, Jacob; Lincoln, Don; Lipton, Ron; Lykken, Joseph; Maeshima, Kaori; Marraffino, John Michael; Maruyama, Sho; Mason, David; McBride, Patricia; Mishra, Kalanand; Mrenna, Stephen; Musienko, Yuri; Newman-Holmes, Catherine; O'Dell, Vivian; Prokofyev, Oleg; Sexton-Kennedy, Elizabeth; Sharma, Seema; Spalding, William J; Spiegel, Leonard; Tan, Ping; Taylor, Lucas; Tkaczyk, Slawek; Tran, Nhan Viet; Uplegger, Lorenzo; Vaandering, Eric Wayne; Vidal, Richard; Whitmore, Juliana; Wu, Weimin; Yang, Fan; Yumiceva, Francisco; Yun, Jae Chul; Acosta, Darin; Avery, Paul; Bourilkov, Dimitri; Chen, Mingshui; Cheng, Tongguang; Das, Souvik; De Gruttola, Michele; Di Giovanni, Gian Piero; Dobur, Didar; Drozdetskiy, Alexey; Field, Richard D; Fisher, Matthew; Fu, Yu; Furic, Ivan-Kresimir; Gartner, Joseph; Hugon, Justin; Kim, Bockjoo; Konigsberg, Jacobo; Korytov, Andrey; Kropivnitskaya, Anna; Kypreos, Theodore; Low, Jia Fu; Matchev, Konstantin; Milenovic, Predrag; Mitselmakher, Guenakh; Muniz, Lana; Remington, Ronald; Rinkevicius, Aurelijus; Sellers, Paul; Skhirtladze, Nikoloz; Snowball, Matthew; Yelton, John; Zakaria, Mohammed; Gaultney, Vanessa; Hewamanage, Samantha; Lebolo, Luis Miguel; Linn, Stephan; Markowitz, Pete; Martinez, German; Rodriguez, Jorge Luis; Adams, Todd; Askew, Andrew; Bochenek, Joseph; Chen, Jie; Diamond, Brendan; Gleyzer, Sergei V; Haas, Jeff; Hagopian, Sharon; Hagopian, Vasken; Jenkins, Merrill; Johnson, Kurtis F; Prosper, Harrison; Veeraraghavan, Venkatesh; Weinberg, Marc; Baarmand, Marc M; Dorney, Brian; Hohlmann, Marcus; Kalakhety, Himali; Vodopiyanov, Igor; Adams, Mark Raymond; Anghel, Ioana Maria; Apanasevich, Leonard; Bai, Yuting; Bazterra, Victor Eduardo; Betts, Russell Richard; Bucinskaite, Inga; Callner, Jeremy; Cavanaugh, Richard; Evdokimov, Olga; Gauthier, Lucie; Gerber, Cecilia Elena; Hofman, David Jonathan; Khalatyan, Samvel; Lacroix, Florent; Malek, Magdalena; O'Brien, Christine; Silkworth, Christopher; Strom, Derek; Varelas, Nikos; Akgun, Ugur; Albayrak, Elif Asli; Bilki, Burak; Clarida, Warren; Duru, Firdevs; Griffiths, Scott; Merlo, Jean-Pierre; Mermerkaya, Hamit; Mestvirishvili, Alexi; Moeller, Anthony; Nachtman, Jane; Newsom, Charles Ray; Norbeck, Edwin; Onel, Yasar; Ozok, Ferhat; Sen, Sercan; Tiras, Emrah; Wetzel, James; Yetkin, Taylan; Yi, Kai; Barnett, Bruce Arnold; Blumenfeld, Barry; Bolognesi, Sara; Fehling, David; Giurgiu, Gavril; Gritsan, Andrei; Guo, Zijin; Hu, Guofan; Maksimovic, Petar; Rappoccio, Salvatore; Swartz, Morris; Whitbeck, Andrew; Baringer, Philip; Bean, Alice; Benelli, Gabriele; Grachov, Oleg; Kenny Iii, Raymond Patrick; Murray, Michael; Noonan, Daniel; Sanders, Stephen; Stringer, Robert; Tinti, Gemma; Wood, Jeffrey Scott; Zhukova, Victoria; Barfuss, Anne-Fleur; Bolton, Tim; Chakaberia, Irakli; Ivanov, Andrew; Khalil, Sadia; Makouski, Mikhail; Maravin, Yurii; Shrestha, Shruti; Svintradze, Irakli; Gronberg, Jeffrey; Lange, David; Wright, Douglas; Baden, Drew; Boutemeur, Madjid; Calvert, Brian; Eno, Sarah Catherine; Gomez, Jaime; Hadley, Nicholas John; Kellogg, Richard G; Kirn, Malina; Kolberg, Ted; Lu, Ying; Marionneau, Matthieu; Mignerey, Alice; Pedro, Kevin; Peterman, Alison; Skuja, Andris; Temple, Jeffrey; Tonjes, Marguerite; Tonwar, Suresh C; Twedt, Elizabeth; Apyan, Aram; Bauer, Gerry; Bendavid, Joshua; Busza, Wit; Butz, Erik; Cali, Ivan Amos; Chan, Matthew; Dutta, Valentina; Gomez Ceballos, Guillelmo; Goncharov, Maxim; Hahn, Kristan Allan; Kim, Yongsun; Klute, Markus; Krajczar, Krisztian; Li, Wei; Luckey, Paul David; Ma, Teng; Nahn, Steve; Paus, Christoph; Ralph, Duncan; Roland, Christof; Roland, Gunther; Rudolph, Matthew; Stephans, George; Stöckli, Fabian; Sumorok, Konstanty; Sung, Kevin; Velicanu, Dragos; Wenger, Edward Allen; Wolf, Roger; Wyslouch, Bolek; Yang, Mingming; Yilmaz, Yetkin; Yoon, Sungho; Zanetti, Marco; Cooper, Seth; Dahmes, Bryan; De Benedetti, Abraham; Franzoni, Giovanni; Gude, Alexander; Kao, Shih-Chuan; Klapoetke, Kevin; Kubota, Yuichi; Mans, Jeremy; Pastika, Nathaniel; Rusack, Roger; Sasseville, Michael; Singovsky, Alexander; Tambe, Norbert; Turkewitz, Jared; Cremaldi, Lucien Marcus; Kroeger, Rob; Perera, Lalith; Rahmat, Rahmat; Sanders, David A; Avdeeva, Ekaterina; Bloom, Kenneth; Bose, Suvadeep; Butt, Jamila; Claes, Daniel R; Dominguez, Aaron; Eads, Michael; Keller, Jason; Kravchenko, Ilya; Lazo-Flores, Jose; Malbouisson, Helena; Malik, Sudhir; Snow, Gregory R; Baur, Ulrich; Godshalk, Andrew; Iashvili, Ia; Jain, Supriya; Kharchilava, Avto; Kumar, Ashish; Shipkowski, Simon Peter; Smith, Kenneth; Alverson, George; Barberis, Emanuela; Baumgartel, Darin; Chasco, Matthew; Haley, Joseph; Nash, David; Trocino, Daniele; Wood, Darien; Zhang, Jinzhong; Anastassov, Anton; Kubik, Andrew; Mucia, Nicholas; Odell, Nathaniel; Ofierzynski, Radoslaw Adrian; Pollack, Brian; Pozdnyakov, Andrey; Schmitt, Michael; Stoynev, Stoyan; Velasco, Mayda; Won, Steven; Antonelli, Louis; Berry, Douglas; Brinkerhoff, Andrew; Hildreth, Michael; Jessop, Colin; Karmgard, Daniel John; Kolb, Jeff; Lannon, Kevin; Luo, Wuming; Lynch, Sean; Marinelli, Nancy; Morse, David Michael; Pearson, Tessa; Planer, Michael; Ruchti, Randy; Slaunwhite, Jason; Valls, Nil; Wayne, Mitchell; Wolf, Matthias; Bylsma, Ben; Durkin, Lloyd Stanley; Hill, Christopher; Hughes, Richard; Kotov, Khristian; Ling, Ta-Yung; Puigh, Darren; Rodenburg, Marissa; Vuosalo, Carl; Williams, Grayson; Winer, Brian L; Adam, Nadia; Berry, Edmund; Elmer, Peter; Gerbaudo, Davide; Halyo, Valerie; Hebda, Philip; Hegeman, Jeroen; Hunt, Adam; Jindal, Pratima; Lopes Pegna, David; Lujan, Paul; Marlow, Daniel; Medvedeva, Tatiana; Mooney, Michael; Olsen, James; Piroué, Pierre; Quan, Xiaohang; Raval, Amita; Safdi, Ben; Saka, Halil; Stickland, David; Tully, Christopher; Werner, Jeremy Scott; Zuranski, Andrzej; Acosta, Jhon Gabriel; Brownson, Eric; Huang, Xing Tao; Lopez, Angel; Mendez, Hector; Oliveros, Sandra; Ramirez Vargas, Juan Eduardo; Zatserklyaniy, Andriy; Alagoz, Enver; Barnes, Virgil E; Benedetti, Daniele; Bolla, Gino; Bortoletto, Daniela; De Mattia, Marco; Everett, Adam; Hu, Zhen; Jones, Matthew; Koybasi, Ozhan; Kress, Matthew; Laasanen, Alvin T; Leonardo, Nuno; Maroussov, Vassili; Merkel, Petra; Miller, David Harry; Neumeister, Norbert; Shipsey, Ian; Silvers, David; Svyatkovskiy, Alexey; Vidal Marono, Miguel; Yoo, Hwi Dong; Zablocki, Jakub; Zheng, Yu; Guragain, Samir; Parashar, Neeti; Adair, Antony; Boulahouache, Chaouki; Ecklund, Karl Matthew; Geurts, Frank JM; Padley, Brian Paul; Redjimi, Radia; Roberts, Jay; Zabel, James; Betchart, Burton; Bodek, Arie; Chung, Yeon Sei; Covarelli, Roberto; de Barbaro, Pawel; Demina, Regina; Eshaq, Yossof; Garcia-Bellido, Aran; Goldenzweig, Pablo; Han, Jiyeon; Harel, Amnon; Miner, Daniel Carl; Vishnevskiy, Dmitry; Zielinski, Marek; Bhatti, Anwar; Ciesielski, Robert; Demortier, Luc; Goulianos, Konstantin; Lungu, Gheorghe; Malik, Sarah; Mesropian, Christina; Arora, Sanjay; Barker, Anthony; Chou, John Paul; Contreras-Campana, Christian; Contreras-Campana, Emmanuel; Duggan, Daniel; Ferencek, Dinko; Gershtein, Yuri; Gray, Richard; Halkiadakis, Eva; Hidas, Dean; Lath, Amitabh; Panwalkar, Shruti; Park, Michael; Patel, Rishi; Rekovic, Vladimir; Robles, Jorge; Rose, Keith; Salur, Sevil; Schnetzer, Steve; Seitz, Claudia; Somalwar, Sunil; Stone, Robert; Thomas, Scott; Cerizza, Giordano; Hollingsworth, Matthew; Spanier, Stefan; Yang, Zong-Chang; York, Andrew; Eusebi, Ricardo; Flanagan, Will; Gilmore, Jason; Kamon, Teruki; Khotilovich, Vadim; Montalvo, Roy; Osipenkov, Ilya; Pakhotin, Yuriy; Perloff, Alexx; Roe, Jeffrey; Safonov, Alexei; Sakuma, Tai; Sengupta, Sinjini; Suarez, Indara; Tatarinov, Aysen; Toback, David; Akchurin, Nural; Damgov, Jordan; Dragoiu, Cosmin; Dudero, Phillip Russell; Jeong, Chiyoung; Kovitanggoon, Kittikul; Lee, Sung Won; Libeiro, Terence; Roh, Youn; Volobouev, Igor; Appelt, Eric; Delannoy, Andrés G; Florez, Carlos; Greene, Senta; Gurrola, Alfredo; Johns, Willard; Johnston, Cody; Kurt, Pelin; Maguire, Charles; Melo, Andrew; Sharma, Monika; Sheldon, Paul; Snook, Benjamin; Tuo, Shengquan; Velkovska, Julia; Arenton, Michael Wayne; Balazs, Michael; Boutle, Sarah; Cox, Bradley; Francis, Brian; Goodell, Joseph; Hirosky, Robert; Ledovskoy, Alexander; Lin, Chuanzhe; Neu, Christopher; Wood, John; Yohay, Rachel; Gollapinni, Sowjanya; Harr, Robert; Karchin, Paul Edmund; Kottachchi Kankanamge Don, Chamath; Lamichhane, Pramod; Sakharov, Alexandre; Anderson, Michael; Belknap, Donald; Borrello, Laura; Carlsmith, Duncan; Cepeda, Maria; Dasu, Sridhara; Friis, Evan; Gray, Lindsey; Grogg, Kira Suzanne; Grothe, Monika; Hall-Wilton, Richard; Herndon, Matthew; Hervé, Alain; Klabbers, Pamela; Klukas, Jeffrey; Lanaro, Armando; Lazaridis, Christos; Leonard, Jessica; Loveless, Richard; Mohapatra, Ajit; Ojalvo, Isabel; Palmonari, Francesco; Pierro, Giuseppe Antonio; Ross, Ian; Savin, Alexander; Smith, Wesley H; Swanson, Joshua

    2012-01-01

    Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up- and down-type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant CKM matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. This result significantly reduces the allowed parameter space for a fourt...

  9. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Tuan B. Le; Hatim O. Sharif

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River ...

  10. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  11. Costing issues for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: what policy makers need

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estrada-Oyuele, R.A. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Argentine Republic, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2000-07-01

    As a supreme body on climate change, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) discusses related issues in conventions and originates scientific information which are needed by policy makers. This article highlights the problems usually faced by IPCC in originating such information. The author critically assesses the problems faces by climate change policy markers. He suggests that the scientific community should be actively involved in climate change policy formulation rather than providing warning against the risk of climate change. Plain language and clarity in preparing IPCC reports will improve the general understanding of the assessment. The author also points out that proliferation of scenarios is another source of many problems for policy makers. He argues out that the scenarios should be organized and presented according to some order of probability, as there is a tendency to confuse scenarios with forecasting.

  12. Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w*(tau) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to tau. Using information on the distributions for temperature change and economic impact from studies assembled by the IPCC and from "integrated assessment models" (IAMs), I fit displaced gamm...

  13. Multinational enterprises and climate change strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is often perceived as the most pressing environmental problem of our time, as reflected in the large public, policy, and corporate attention it has received, and the concerns expressed about the (potential) consequences. Particularly due to temperature increases, climate change affects physical and biological systems by changing ecosystems and causing extinction of species, and is expected to have a negative social impact and adversely affect human health (IPCC, 2007). Moreover...

  14. Instruments of the Money Market. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Timothy Q., Ed.

    This booklet is a compilation of articles on money market instruments which were published in the "Monthly Review" of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond from 1964-1967. They have been revised to include recent changes in the various markets, as well as to reflect currently applicable laws and regulations. The articles are titled: The Money…

  15. Tropical cyclones and climate change; Les cyclones tropicaux et le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, J.C. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France); Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique (CNRM), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  16. Effects of Climate Change on Urban Rainwater Harvesting in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwong Fai A. Lo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to water-related issues due to rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure and changes in rainfall patterns. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on rainwater harvesting systems (RWH in the tropical urban city, Colombo, Sri Lanka. The future climate change projections are downscaled from global circulation models to the urban catchment scale using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG, described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, coupled with Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3 model results. Historical rainfall data from 1981–2010 is used to simulate long-term future rainfall data from 2011–2099. The percentage change of the rainfall is calculated. The rainfall patterns are analyzed based on the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Water requirements are calculated based on the selected scenario types. Rainfall and water demand data are incorporated into a water balance model. Climate change impacts for the selected RWH scenarios are calculated based on the water security analysis for each scenario. Analysis of the future rainfall data of Colombo reveals that several extreme weather events with very heavy rainfall may occur in the future. However, the frequency of these big events may not occur too often. Most of the selected global circulation models (GCMs in this study predict that there will be more rainfall towards the end of this century (2080-2099. Residential RWH systems will be more affected than non-residential systems. RWH systems in Colombo should include potential future climate changes in their future design and planning and be prepared for excess runoff and additional measures against potential overflow and urban floods.

  17. Relationship between South China Sea precipitation variability and tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies in IPCC CMIP5 models during spring-to-summer transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Wenting; Wu, Renguang

    2015-09-01

    The present study evaluates the precipitation variability over the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship to tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies during spring-to-summer transition (April-May-June, AMJ) simulated by 23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled models. Most of the models have the capacity to capture the AMJ precipitation variability in the SCS. The precipitation and SST anomaly (SSTA) distribution in the SCS, tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO), and tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) domains is evaluated based on the pattern correlation coefficients between model simulations and observations. The analysis leads to several points of note. First, the performance of the SCS precipitation anomaly pattern in AMJ is model dependent. Second, the SSTA pattern in the TPO and TIO is important for capturing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability. Third, a realistic simulation of the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and local SST impacts is necessary for reproducing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability in some models. Fourth, the overly strong WEP SST impacts may disrupt the relationship between the SCS precipitation and the TPO-TIO SST. Further work remains to be conducted to unravel the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations in various aspects.

  18. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  19. Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on State Maritime Strategy%全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李倩; 张韧; 金生龙; 徐海斌

    2011-01-01

    Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the paper generalizes the ocean responses to the global climate change, and then the influence mechanism of climate change on state maritime strategy is studied and expounded. The analysis shows that the climate change influences state maritime strategy in two steps. First, the climate change causes natural responses through physical mechanism, and then the environmental changes cause several social responses through social mechanism.%基于IPCC第四次评估报告中海洋对气候变化的响应,探讨了全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响机制。分析表明,气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响体现在两个阶段,即气候变化通过物理机制引起自然生态系统响应阶段和自然环境演变通过社会机制引起社会响应阶段。

  20. Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor of the fourth ventricle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-chun ZHAO

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective To explore the clinicopathological features of rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor (RGNT of the fourth ventricle.  Methods The clinical manifestations, neuroimaging, histopathological and immunohistochemical features were analysed in one case of RGNT of the fourth ventricle, and related literatures were reviewed.  Results A 24-year-old female presented with progressive dizziness under no obvious predisposing causes and dyskinesia such as stumbling. MRI revealed expansion of the fourth ventricle, and a mass with long T1WI and T2WI signal and clear boundary could be seen within the fourth ventricle. The border of tumor showed slight enhancement. At surgery, it was observed that the solitary tumor arised from the fourth ventricle and appeared well demarcated with rhomboid fossa. The tumor was blocking the aqueduct of sylvius before it was removed. Microscopically, the tumor exhibited both neuronic and astrocytic components. In the neuronic components, neurocytes formed neurocytic rosettes and perivascular pseudorosettes. At the center of the neurocytic rosettes, there was an eosinophilic core and some region consisted of microcysts. While the astrocytic components of the tumor revealed typical pilocytic astrocytoma structure. The center of neuronic rosettes and perivascular pseudorosettes displayed strong positive staining with synaptophysin (Syn and oligodendrocytes transcription factor-2 (Olig-2. The astrocytic components showed positive immunostaining of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP. There were focal and partial positive immunostaining of neuron-specific enolase (NSE in both components of the tumor. The Ki-67 labeling index was 1.50%-2.00% in two components.  Conclusions Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor of the fourth ventricle is an unusual neuronal and mixed neuronal-glial tumors. The imaging examination showed solid or mixed solid-cystic mass at the fourth ventricle with well demarcated border. The lesion has two

  1. Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, D.

    2008-12-01

    The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

  2. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  3. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  4. Dark Coulomb binding of heavy neutrinos of fourth family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belotsky, K. M.; Esipova, E. A.; Khlopov, M. Yu.; Laletin, M. N.

    2015-11-01

    Direct dark matter searches put severe constraints on the weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). These constraints cause serious troubles for the model of stable neutrino of fourth generation with mass around 50GeV. Though the calculations of primordial abundance of these particles make them in the charge symmetric case a sparse subdominant component of the modern dark matter, their presence in the universe would exceed the current upper limits by several orders of the magnitude. However, if quarks and leptons of fourth generation possess their own Coulomb-like y-interaction, recombination of pairs of heavy neutrinos and antineutrinos and their annihilation in the “neutrinium” atoms can play important role in their cosmological evolution, reducing their modern abundance far below the experimental upper limits. The model of stable fourth generation assumes that the dominant part of dark matter is explained by excessive Ū antiquarks, forming (ŪŪŪ)-- charged clusters, bound with primordial helium in nuclear-interacting O-helium (OHe) dark atoms. The y charge conservation implies generation of the same excess of fourth generation neutrinos, potentially dangerous WIMP component of this scenario. We show that due to y-interaction recombination of fourth neutrinos with OHe hides these WIMPs from direct WIMP searches, leaving the negligible fraction of free neutrinos, what makes their existence compatible with the experimental constraints.

  5. Fourth standard model family neutrino at future linear colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is known that flavor democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three-family fermions flavor democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac (ν4) and Majorana (N1) neutrinos at future linear colliders with √(s)=500 GeV, 1 TeV, and 3 TeV are considered. The cross section for the process e+e-→ν4ν4(N1N1) and the branching ratios for possible decay modes of the both neutrinos are determined. The decays of the fourth family neutrinos into muon channels (ν4(N1)→μ±W±) provide cleanest signature at e+e- colliders. Meanwhile, in our parametrization this channel is dominant. W bosons produced in decays of the fourth family neutrinos will be seen in detector as either di-jets or isolated leptons. As an example, we consider the production of 200 GeV mass fourth family neutrinos at √(s)=500 GeV linear colliders by taking into account di-muon plus four jet events as signatures

  6. Internet usage of fourth-grader primary school pupils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kristof Nagy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The development of information and communication technologies has resulted in revolutionary changes, which seem to continue in economy, society and many areas of life. The most important resource of the new social structure emerging as a result of technologies is information, thus the development of human capacity related to the use of information is extremely important. It may not be easy for parents and teachers to face the fact that the majority of their children/pupils know more about cyberspace than themselves. But are primary school pupils really better versed? Does digital literacy indeed automatically evolve? Does the use of the internet by all means improve children’s academic performance? In our current study we are researching how primary school pupils in the easternmost part of Hungary use the internet, and what effects it has on their studies. We would also like to emphasize the role of teachers working at the lower grades of the primary school in the formation of pupils’ digital literacy. In 2013 190 fourth-grader primary school pupils of eight schools filled in our questionnaire. Based on the data negative correlation was found between the time spent on web browsing and the academic average. Analysis of variance also revealed that those pupils have a higher academic average whose parents regularly check the purpose of their children’s internet usage. Our research results showed that the pupils who use the internet and the library equally to search for new information have a higher academic average compared to those pupils who only make use of either the traditional or the online option only. The most important result of the research is that in the case of adequate parental or professional (teacher control internet may have fruitful effects on pupils’ studies, but in the lack of such control the opposite is more likely.

  7. Bergman kernel function on Hua construction of the fourth type

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces the Hua construction and presents the holomorphic automorphism group of the Hua construction of the fourth type. Utilizing the Bergman kernel function, under the condition of holomorphic automorphism and the standard complete orthonormal system of the semi-Reinhardt domain, the infinite series form of the Bergman kernel function is derived. By applying the properties of polynomial and Γ functions, various identification relations of the aforementioned form are developed and the explicit formula of the Bergman kernel function for the Hua construction of the fourth type is obtained, which suggest that many of the previously-reported results are only the special cases of our findings.

  8. Towards Reviving Electroweak Baryogenesis with a Fourth Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Shu Hou

    2013-01-01

    universe. However, it does not work within the standard model due to two reasons: (1 the strength of CP violation from the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism with three generations is too small; (2 the electroweak phase transition is not first order for the experimentally allowed Higgs boson mass. We discuss possibilities to solve these problems by introducing a fourth generation of fermions and how electroweak baryogenesis might be revived. We also discuss briefly the recent observation of a Higgs-like boson with mass around 125 GeV, which puts the fourth generation in a difficult situation, and the possible way out.

  9. A Search for the Fourth SM Family: Tevatron still has a Chance

    CERN Document Server

    Sahin, M; Turkoz, S

    2010-01-01

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the Standard Model. We discuss possible manifestations of the fourth SM family at existing and future colliders. The LHC and Tevatron potentials to discover the fourth SM family have been compared. The scenario with dominance of the anomalous decay modes of the fourth family quarks has been considered in details.

  10. Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Wamsler, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Urban communities will face increased risks, such as floods, landslides, heat stress and fires and water scarcity, as a consequence of climate change. The latest IPCC report (AR5) has for the first time devoted a whole chapter to urban areas. The assessment stresses the need to tackle urban risk through more effective adaptation planning.

  11. The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO2) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

  12. Fourth Generation Instructional Design Model: An Elaboration on Authoring Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Dean L.

    This paper presents the updated (fourth generation) version of the instructional design (ID) model, noting its emphasis on a scientific, iterative approach based upon research and theory in learning and instruction and upon applied development experience. Another important trend toward a scientific approach to instructional design is the increased…

  13. Integrating Fourth-Generation Tools Into the Applications Development Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litaker, R. G.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Much of the power of the "information center" comes from its ability to effectively use fourth-generation productivity tools to provide information processing services. A case study of the use of these tools at Western Michigan University is presented. (Author/MLW)

  14. Installing an Integrated System and a Fourth-Generation Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridenour, David; Ferguson, Linda

    1987-01-01

    In the spring of 1986 Indiana State University converted to the Series Z software of Information Associates, an IBM mainframe, and Information Builders' FOCUS fourth-generation language. The beginning of the planning stage to product selection, training, and implementation is described. (Author/MLW)

  15. Gender Differences in Inference Generation by Fourth-Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; Seipel, Ben; Broek, Paul; McMaster, Kristen L.; Kendeou, Panayiota; Carlson, Sarah E.; Rapp, David N.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if there are gender differences among elementary school-aged students in regard to the inferences they generate during reading. Fourth-grade students (130 females; 126 males) completed think-aloud tasks while reading one practice and one experimental narrative text. Females generated a larger number and a…

  16. The fourth suture in MACS facelifting – adressing the neck

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaye, Kai O.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The MACS facelift alone shows poor results on the medial neck in cases of pronounced, rigid platysmabands (McKinney III–IV°. The original MACS (“Minimal Access Cranial Suspension” facelift delirs excellent results on the midface and leads to sustainably improved outcome on the neck by adding a fourth suture on the platysma. McKinney type I–II platysmabands can be treated only by lateral approach of the ‘fourth suture’, type III–IV should be treated with closed platysma myotomy before.Methods: Between October 2007 and November 2013 a number of 219 patients were treated with the MACS facelift technique accomplished by a fourth suture on the platysma and liposuction or optional lipectomy on the neck. On 47 patients closed transcutaneous platysma myotomy was performed.Results: Surgery time lasted on average 2.5 hours and was performed under sedation with local anesthesia in 85%. Recovery time ranged between 14 to 16 days until the patients were back to work. Due to their health status 54% of our patients had an inpatient arrangement for one night and 46% an outpatient arrangement.Conclusion: The modification of the MACS lift with the ‘fourth suture’ on the platysma keeps the benefits of the original technique but improves the aesthetic outcome on the neck.

  17. Short Fourth Metacarpal Bone in Sickle Cell Anemia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Bagherzadeh; Mahmoud Parham

    2015-01-01

    A 19-year-old man referred to the emergency department with generalized extremity pain. He had past medical history of sickle cell anemia. On physical examination, body temperature was normal and short right fourth-metacarpal bone was observed, but there was no sign of genetic disorders like turner syndrome, McCune-Albright, and hypothyroidism.

  18. Did that Dog Sniff Violate the Fourth Amendment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawke, Catherine; Middleton, Tiffany

    2012-01-01

    Is sniffing at the front door of a private home by a trained narcotics detection dog a Fourth Amendment search requiring probable cause? Is a "drug dog" somehow like a manmade technology, such as a thermal imaging device? These were a couple of the questions recently presented to the U.S. Supreme Court during arguments in "Florida v. Jardines."…

  19. Engineering alumni present fourth $10,000 prize

    OpenAIRE

    Nystrom, Lynn A.

    2005-01-01

    A group of seven Virginia Tech alumni, in conjunction with the university's College of Engineering, has awarded its fourth $10,000 prize to university's Department of Computer Science in recognition of improvements to the department's Ph.D. program during the past year.

  20. Operation Sluggie and Other Software Products from the Fourth Grade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Theresa Boedeker; Rogel, Jeannine

    1995-01-01

    Describes a project that taught groups of fourth graders how to develop instructional software for second and third graders in the areas of mathematics and science. Topics include project goals for students and the teacher; integrating technology; documentation and packaging; community involvement; and benefits to students. (LRW)

  1. Asymptotic behaviour of solutions of fourth order Dirichlet problems

    OpenAIRE

    Dall'Aglio, Paolo

    2000-01-01

    The asymptotic behaviour of solutions to fourth order Dirichlet elliptic problems, on varying domains, is studied through the decomposition into a system of second order ones, which leads to relaxed formulations with the introduction of measure terms. This allows to salve a shape optimization problem for a simply supported thin plate.

  2. The Value of the Fourth Year of Mathematics. Math Works

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieve, Inc., 2013

    2013-01-01

    Too many students and educators view the senior year and graduation from high school as an end point, rather than one vital step along the education pipeline. Students who engage in a fourth year of math tap into and build upon their advanced analytic skills and are more likely to have better success in postsecondary course work, as they have…

  3. Fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization was held October 9 to 11, 1979, at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland. It was sponsored by the National Bureau of Standards, the Electric Power Research Institute, the US Department of Energy, and the Gas Research Institute. The papers have been entered individually into EDB and ERA. (LTN)

  4. Fourth Way in Action: Teacher Education in Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Oon Seng

    2012-01-01

    Policy makers are often looking for solutions to develop their educational systems in today's highly competitive knowledge-based economy. Hargreaves and Shirley's Fourth Way provides a useful approach in analysing policy trends, successes and pitfalls, based on an observation of practices and research evidences in the west, particularly, the USA…

  5. Fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary-value problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Leszczynski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we consider the fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary value problem with both advance and retardation. We apply the direct method of the calculus of variations and the mountain pass technique to prove the existence of at least one and at least two solutions. Non-existence of non-trivial solutions is also undertaken.

  6. Transactions of the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Genk, M.S.; Hoover, M.D. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    This paper contains the presented papers at the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems. Topics of these papers include: space nuclear missions and applications, reactors and shielding, nuclear electric and nuclear propulsion, refractory alloys and high-temperature materials, instrumentation and control, energy conversion and storage, space nuclear fuels, thermal management, nuclear safety, simulation and modeling, and multimegawatt system concepts. (LSP)

  7. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow, which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells. We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2, the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  8. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU YanNan; JIAN HuaiYu

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow,which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells.We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2,the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  9. Constraints on Majorana dark matter from a fourth lepton family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hapola, T.; Jarvinen, M.; Kouvaris, C.;

    2014-01-01

    We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC...... account for the dark matter abundance....

  10. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  11. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  12. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  13. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockstrom, J.; Brasseur, G; Hoskins, B.; Lucht, W.; Schellnhuber, J.; P. Kabat; Nakicenovic, N.; P. Gong; P. Schlosser; Costa, M; Humble, A.; Eyre, N.; Gleick, P.; James, R.; Lucena, A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  14. Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  15. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  16. Spinal accessory nerve schwannomas masquerading as a fourth ventricular lesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyam Sundar Krishnan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Schwannomas are benign lesions that arise from the nerve sheath of cranial nerves. The most common schwannomas arise from the 8 th cranial nerve (the vestibulo-cochlear nerve followed by trigeminal and facial nerves and then from glossopharyngeal, vagus, and spinal accessory nerves. Schwannomas involving the oculomotor, trochlear, abducens and hypoglossal nerves are very rare. We report a very unusual spinal accessory nerve schwannoma which occupied the fourth ventricle and extended inferiorly to the upper cervical canal. The radiological features have been detailed. The diagnostic dilemma was due to its midline posterior location mimicking a fourth ventricular lesion like medulloblastoma and ependymoma. Total excision is the ideal treatment for these tumors. A brief review of literature with tabulations of the variants has been listed.

  17. Galaxy rotation curves from a fourth order gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Mishra, Priti

    2012-01-01

    While the standard and most popular explanation for the flatness of galaxy rotation curves is dark matter, one cannot at this stage rule out an explanation based on a modified law of gravitation, which agrees with Newtonian gravitation on the scale of the solar system, but differs from it on larger length scales. Examples include Modfied Newtonian Dynamics [MOND] and Scalar-Tensor-Vector Gravity [STVG]. Here we report on a fourth order modification of the Poisson equation which yields the same Yukawa type modification of Newtonian gravity as STVG, and which can explain flat galaxy rotation curves for a large sample of galaxies, once specific values for two parameters have been chosen. We speculate on two possible origins for this modified Poisson equation: first, a possible fourth order modification of general relativity, and second, quadrupole gravitational polarization induced on a galaxy because of the pull of neighbouring galaxies.

  18. Galaxy rotation curves from a fourth order gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While the standard and most popular explanation for the flatness of galaxy rotation curves is dark matter, one cannot at this stage rule out an explanation based on a modified law of gravitation, which agrees with Newtonian gravitation on the scale of the Solar system, but differs from it on larger length scales. Examples include Modfied Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) and Scalar-Tensor-Vector Gravity (STVG). Here, we have reported on a fourth order modification of the Poisson equation, which yields the same Yukawa type modification of Newtonian gravity as STVG, and which can explain flat galaxy rotation curves for a large sample of galaxies, once specific values for two parameters have been chosen. We have speculated on two possible origins for this modified Poisson equation: First, a possible fourth order modification of general relativity, and second, quadrupole gravitational polarization induced on a galaxy because of the pull of neighbouring galaxies

  19. Climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere based on the use of an atmosphere-ocean IPCC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forced and natural variability of modelled and observed Atlantic Ocean temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is studied. In the observations and in a forced climate model run, we find increasing temperature at 1000m in the Atlantic (20N). SVD analysis shows that, for both model data and observations, a high index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) correspond to negative temperature anomaly at 1000m to the north of 55N, although geographical details of temperature anomaly distribution are different for the model and observations. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of the fresh water flux due to the present global warming on the slowing down of the AMOC. It is shown that fresh water flux change is only a secondary cause of reduced AMOC in global warming conditions, while heat flux change is probably the main reason. Finally, it is shown that internal model AMOC variability is positively correlated with the near-surface air temperature in Atlantic-European Arctic sector on a 10-year time scale.

  20. Reducing the impact of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that there is overwhelming evidence that humans are affecting climate and it highlighted the implications for human health. The World Health Organization (WHO) is helping countries respond to this challenge, primarily by encouraging them to build and reinforce public health systems as the first line of defence against climate-related health risks.

  1. Teasing out the impacts of climate change on agricultural development

    OpenAIRE

    Knox, Jerry W.; Kay, Melvyn G.

    2010-01-01

    plethora of articles, books, and academic papers. Not least are the detailed and extensive publications of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which set out in their latest assessment (AR4), the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for understanding the risks posed by human- induced climate change, and the policy options for dealing with it. Although it is useful to study and identify the specific benefits and risks of a changing c...

  2. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Xiong, Wei; Li, Zhengguo; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Guixia; Fu, Yijiang; zou, Jinqiu; Chen, Zhongxin; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-01-01

    International audience Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and te...

  3. Fourth Meeting of China-Spain Forum Held in Madrid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>Chairman Hu Qili and Executive Chairman Chen Haosu of the Chinese Committee of the China-Spain Forum(CSF) led a Chinese delegation to attend the Fourth Meeting of the CSF in Madrid from November 27 to 28,2007.The meeting with the theme of "Harmony,Development and Gaining Win-Win Results" was jointly sponsored by the CPAFFC,the CSF Chinese Committee,the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Spain China Council Foundation.

  4. Spinal accessory nerve schwannomas masquerading as a fourth ventricular lesion

    OpenAIRE

    Shyam Sundar Krishnan; Sivaram Bojja; Madabhushi Chakravarthy Vasudevan

    2015-01-01

    Schwannomas are benign lesions that arise from the nerve sheath of cranial nerves. The most common schwannomas arise from the 8 th cranial nerve (the vestibulo-cochlear nerve) followed by trigeminal and facial nerves and then from glossopharyngeal, vagus, and spinal accessory nerves. Schwannomas involving the oculomotor, trochlear, abducens and hypoglossal nerves are very rare. We report a very unusual spinal accessory nerve schwannoma which occupied the fourth ventricle and extended inferior...

  5. Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects

    OpenAIRE

    Gsponer, Andre

    2005-01-01

    The paper begins with a general introduction and update to Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons (FGNW), and then addresses some particularly important military aspects on which there has been only limited public discussion so far. These aspects concern the unique military characteristics of FGNWs which make them radically different from both nuclear weapons based on previous-generation nuclear-explosives and from conventional weapons based on chemical-explosives: yields in the 1 to 100 tons rang...

  6. New Efficient Fourth Order Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farooq Ahmad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In a paper [Appl. Math. Comput., 188 (2 (2007 1587--1591], authors have suggested and analyzed a method for solving nonlinear equations. In the present work, we modified this method by using the finite difference scheme, which has a quintic convergence. We have compared this modified Halley method with some other iterative of fifth-orders convergence methods, which shows that this new method having convergence of fourth order, is efficient.

  7. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  8. ITALIAN MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES AND THE FOURTH CAPITALISM

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2012-01-01

    The work addresses the issue of Italian medium-sized enterprises of the fourth capitalism. The question is whether this business model is going to last and actually represent a new model for global competition. This contribution examines the features of the model of the medium industrial enterprise. It also investigates the performance of the Italian medium-sized enterprises, comparing with large companies. The analysis of the data, albeit at a descriptive level using data published by Mediob...

  9. Proceedings of the fourth workshop on grand unification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weldon, H.A.; Langacker, P.; Steinhardt, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    This book compiles the papers presented at the fourth conference of grand unified theories of nuclear physics held in University of Pennsylvania April 1983. The topics covered were proton decay theory; angular distribution and flux of atmospheric neutrinos; atmospheric neutrinos and astrophysical neutrinos in proton decay experiments; review of future nucleon decay experiments; monopole experiments; searches for magnetic monopole; monopoles, gauge, fields and anomalies; darkmatter, galaxies and voids; adiabatic fluctuations; supersymmetry, supergravity, and Kaluza-Klein theories; superstring theory and superunification.

  10. Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Advances in Electrocorticography

    OpenAIRE

    Ritaccio, Anthony; Brunner, Peter; Crone, Nathan E.; Gunduz, Aysegul; Hirsch, Lawrence J.; Kanwisher, Nancy; Litt, Brian; Miller, Kai; Moran, Daniel; Parvizi, Josef; Ramsey, Nick; Richner, Thomas J.; Tandon, Niton; Williams, Justin; Schalk, Gerwin

    2013-01-01

    The Fourth International Workshop on Advances in Electrocorticography (ECoG) convened in New Orleans, LA, on October 11-12, 2012. The proceedings of the workshop serves as an accurate record of the most contemporary clinical and experimental work on brain surface recording and represents the insights of a unique multidisciplinary ensemble of expert clinicians and scientists. Presentations covered a broad range of topics, including innovations in passive functional mapping, increased understan...

  11. The Fourth Attempt to Construct a Politics of Welfare Obligations

    OpenAIRE

    Fitzpatrick, Tony

    2005-01-01

    Since the 1980s there have been three main attempts to ground citizenship upon the principles of duty, obligation and responsibility: conservative, communitarian and Third Way. Each of these are reviewed below. The principal task of this article, though, is to examine the emergence of a fourth attempt which, by relating duty to equality through the principle of reciprocity, represents a synthesis of traditional social democracy with the new politics of obligation. Our focus will be upon The...

  12. Fourth Beijing Human Rights Forum Held in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUR STAFF REPORTER

    2012-01-01

    The Fourth Beijing Forum on Human Rights was held in Beijing from September 21-23,2011.Jointly sponsored by the China Society for Human Rights Studies and the China Human Rights Development Foundation,the forum was centered on the theme of "Cultural Tradition,Concept of Values and Human Rights." Attending were nearly 100senior human rights officials,specialists and scholars from 26 countries and regions as well as the United Nations and other international organizations.

  13. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-04

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Wheeler, Mark; Lambert, Winifred; Case, Jonathan; Short, David

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (A MU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (July -Sept 2004). Tasks covered are: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension and (5) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest.

  14. Are Consumer Decision-Making Phenomena a Fourth Market Failure?

    OpenAIRE

    Lunn, Pete

    2013-01-01

    This paper challenges the increasingly common view that the findings of behavioural economics constitute a fourth type of market failure. The market failure framework elevates the standard competitive market model to the status of an ideal. It provides us with tools to identify departures from the ideal model and to deduce a direction policy might take to restore it. Many behavioural phenomena also imply departures from the ideal model. Yet rather than allowing us to deduce a good direction f...

  15. Pseudo-randomness of the fourth class of GSS sequences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yupu; XIAO Guozhen

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses pseudo-randomness of a periodic sequence, named the fourth class of GSS sequence. We get the ollowing results: ① Its least period always reaches the maximum (that is, 2n-1). ② Its least period and linear complexity keep robust under single-symbol-substitution. ③ It has good Iow-degree-auto-correlation feature. ④It has good short-length-run-distribution.

  16. Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

    <正>The Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum on "revitalizing people-to-people cultural exchanges for peace and prosperity",co-sponsored by the CPAFFC and Shenzhen University,was held in Shenzhen from November 14 to 17,2012. More than 60 experts and scholars from over 40 Chinese research institutes and their colleagues from India,the United States and Singapore engaged in in-depth discussions on economic cooperation and cultural development,the present condi-

  17. Fourth Regional Meeting: Nuclear Energy in Central Europe, Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourth Regional Meeting for Nuclear Energy in Central Europe is an annual meeting of the Nuclear Society of Slovenia. The proceedings contain 89 articles from Slovenia, surrounding countries and countries of the Central and Eastern European Region. Topics are: Research Reactors, Reactor Physics, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Severe Accidents, Ageing and Integrity, Thermal Hydraulics, NPP Operation Experiance, Radioactive Waste Management, Environment and Other Aspects, Public and Nuclear Energy, SG Replacement and Plant Uprating.

  18. Fuels and cycles for the fourth generation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presented during the Cea Seminar on the nuclear systems of the future deals with the fuels and cycles of the fourth generation systems. Four goal areas have been defined for these systems: sustainable for the environment, economical for the investment, safety and reliability, a better protection against the proliferation. The different fuels and cycles of the research programs are detailed. (A.L.B.)

  19. A rare case of fourth consecutive fallopian tube ectopic pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Pandey

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a case of consecutive fourth tubal ectopic in a patient which was managed by emergency laparotomy and salpingectomy. The first two tubal ectopic pregnancies occurred on the right side while the subsequent two occurred on the contralateral side. The patient was planned for IVF-ET. [Int J Reprod Contracept Obstet Gynecol 2015; 4(2.000: 490-492

  20. Conservation laws for fourth order systems in four dimensions

    OpenAIRE

    Lamm, T.; Riviere, T.

    2008-01-01

    Following an approach of the second author for conformally invariant variational problems in two dimensions, we show in four dimensions the existence of a conservation law for fourth order systems, which includes both intrinsic and extrinsic biharmonic maps. With the help of this conservation law we prove the continuity of weak solutions of this system. Moreover we use the conservation law to derive the existence of a unique global weak solution of the extrinsic biharmonic map flow in the ene...

  1. Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Sangjae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Anwoo [Korea Environment Corporation, 42 Hwangyeong-ro, Seo-gu, Incheon 404-170 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Seung-Muk [Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Young, E-mail: jaeykim@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.

  2. Safety Evaluation for Fourth Core Loading of ETRR-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the safety evaluation for the fourth for loading of the ETRR-2 and verification of the core neutronic design criteria for fourth core load. the aims of this work are to assure that the core load satisfies all neutronic safety criteria and to evaluate all core neutronic parameters. the calculation line is a combination of cell calculation transport cod WIMSD-4 and core calculation diffusion code (CITVAP). Two set of macroscopic cross section libraries were generated (hot with xenon and cold without xenon) using the cell calculation code WIMSD4 and POS-WIMS program to be used in global reactor calculation . the core calculations are performed using CITVAP code, starting from first core load up to the end of fourth core. these calculations include burn up calculations and verification of the core neutronic safety criteria . the different cores calculations considered the actual load pattern as well as the detailed operation history. comparisons with experimental measurements of actual critical configurations were performed during the different reload history and the results are very closed by that for utility and all neutronic safety criteria are fulfilled , moreover the accuracy of the burnup calculation is very good. the different critical core configurations were correctly predicted with error less than 200 pcm

  3. Quarterly environmental data summary for fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    The Quarterly Environmental Data Summary (QEDS) for the fourth quarter of 1997 is prepared in support of the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project Federal Facilities Agreement. The data presented constitute the QEDS. The data were received from the contract laboratories, verified by the Weldon Spring Site verification group and, except for air monitoring data and site KPA generated data (uranium analyses), merged into the data base during the fourth quarter of 1997. Air monitoring data presented are the most recent complete sets of quarterly data. Air data are not stored in the data base and KPA data are not merged into the regular data base. Significant data, defined as data values that have exceeded defined ``above normal`` level 2 values, are discussed in this letter for Environmental Monitoring Plan (EMP) generated data only. Above normal level 2 values are based, in ES and H procedures, on historical high values, DOE Derived Concentration Guides (DCGs), NPDES limits and other guidelines. The procedures also establish actions to be taken in response to such data. Data received and verified during the fourth quarter were within a permissible range of variability except for those which are detailed.

  4. Communication experiences of Taipower's fourth NPS - The Lungman Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In 1993, Taipower sold 92.1 TWh of electricity, which represented 42.5 of the total energy demanded in Taiwan. In late 60's, Taipower decided to build a number of nuclear power stations in order to diverse the energy resources and supply enough electricity. Due to the ruling party KMT had absolutely influence in the country, and whole nation believed that the major constructions were symbols of progress, the construction of nuclear power stations were proceeded smoothly. Three nuclear power stations, two units each, were then built one by one during the decade of 70's without much effort regarding communication to the general public. Yet, the seventh and eighth units of the fourth NPP, also the Lungman Project ) faced changing era. Not only the general public became more conservative to nuclear issues due to the TMI and Chernobyl accidents, also the nation political structure was changed. A major opposition party - formed in 1987 having a platform indicating that they aim to create a nuclear-free homeland. The society of Taiwan was more liberal and diversified than ever before. Although the ruling party is still being able to dominate more than half seats in the Legislative Yuan, the diversity of whole society makes the work of some major constructions harder and harder. Obviously, Taipower has to do extra work on the communication to the public. In Taiwan, the antinuclear movement is part of the against ruling party movements. Although the antinuclear groups failed to block the budget for Lungman Project at the Congress, they didn't give up. Taipower's nuclear communication system has been experienced three different stages since 1990. The major targets in this stage were the news media, government officers and the legislators. In June, 1992, the Congress voted for unfreezing the budget of 4th NPP. After experienced the annual fight for budget of the 4th NPP, Taipower realized that it is necessary to perform public communication constantly. Taipower has done the

  5. OSCILLATION CRITERIA FOR A FOURTH ORDER SUBLINEAR DYNAMIC EQUATION ON TIME SCALE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of a fourth order sublinear and/or linear dynamic equation on time scale are established. Our results are new for the corresponding fourth order differential equations as well as difference equations.

  6. 76 FR 37007 - Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display, Stockton, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July... Stockton Ports Baseball Club will sponsor the Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display... read as follows: Sec. 165.T11-422 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July...

  7. A Search for the Fourth SM Family Fermions and E_6 Quarks at $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Çiftçi, A K; Sultansoy, S F

    2002-01-01

    The potential of $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ colliders to investigate the fourth SM family fermions predicted by flavour democracy has been analyzed. It is shown that muon colliders are advantageous for both pair production of fourth family fermions and resonance production of fourth family quarkonia. Also isosinglet quarks production at $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ colliders has been investigated.

  8. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  9. Can the Ethics of the Fourth Estate Persevere in a Global Age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ejvind

    2014-01-01

    ethically good journalism. I argue that ethical evaluations should focus upon the meeting between normative ideals and factual realities. This meeting is always open because ideals can challenge reality, just as reality can challenge ideals. Ethical questions are thus always raising a fundamental “maybe......”. Traditionally the ideals of journalists have been articulated in close affiliation with ideas of the Fourth Estate. However, due to our globalised communicative structure, this articulation is in need of revision. I argue that the ethical requests change because the structure of Internet-based publics changes....... Departing from this situation I suggest that journalistic products are ethically urgent insofar as they both bring communities together and give voice to the inarticulate or voiceless. I argue that in order to substantiate this approach it is important to articulate rules, because rules further the...

  10. Projected climate change and the changing biogeography of coastal Mediterranean fishes

    OpenAIRE

    Albouy, C; Guilhaumon, François; Leprieur, F; Lasram, F. B.; Somot, S.; Aznar, R; Velez, Laure; Le Loc'h, François; Mouillot, D.

    2013-01-01

    Aim To forecast the potential effects of climate change in the Mediterranean Sea on the species richness and mean body size of coastal fish assemblages. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we used species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of 288 coastal fish species by the middle and end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. Results A mean rise of 1.4 ...

  11. Exploring the Linkages between Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Challenge for Transdisciplinary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan Munasinghe

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, both sustainable development and climate change have become well known worldwide, and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC has also focused on the nexus of these two key topics. The IPCC third assessment report confirms that global mean temperatures will rise 1.5-6 degrees Celsius during the next century. Furthermore, climate change will significantly affect the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as key issues like poverty and equity. Therefore, the IPCC is seeking answers to important questions: how future development patterns will affect climate change; how climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation will affect future sustainable development prospects; and how climate change responses might be better integrated into emerging sustainable development strategies. Some key lessons have emerged from these efforts. The IPCC intellectual community has already proved to be quite cohesive and resilient in the face of determined attacks by powerful and well-financed “anti-climate change” lobbies. While addressing sustainable development issues, adaptation and learning within the IPCC have further strengthened the network. First, fresh ideas have been brought in to catalyze change. Transdisciplinary approaches are essential to deal with large-scale, long-term, complex, and interlinked issues like sustainable development and climate change. Second, the disciplinary mix has continued to evolve to meet the challenge. However, crossing disciplinary and cultural boundaries requires sound knowledge of one’s own discipline (especially its limitations, open-mindedness, great patience, and sincere effort on all sides. Third, IPCC internal processes have adjusted to facilitate beneficial changes, while limiting harmful dissension. E-mail has proved to be a powerful, but potentially risky tool. How something is said could be as important as what is said, to

  12. Fourth-order gravity as the inflationary model revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Kaneda, S; Watanabe, N

    2010-01-01

    We revisit the simplest (fourth-order or quadratically generated) modified gravity model in four space-time dimensions. It is equivalent to the certain quintessence model via a Legendre-Weyl transform. By using the quintessence scalar potential we compute the (CMB) observables of inflation associated with curvature perturbations (namely, the scalar and tensor spectral indices, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio) by using the most recent WMAP5 experimental bound. Our results include the next-to-leading terms with respect to the inverse number of e-foldings.

  13. Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects

    CERN Document Server

    Gsponer, A

    2005-01-01

    The paper begins with a general introduction and update to Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons (FGNW), and then addresses some particularly important military aspects on which there has been only limited public discussion so far. These aspects concern the unique military characteristics of FGNWs which make them radically different from both nuclear weapons based on previous-generation nuclear-explosives and from conventional weapons based on chemical-explosives: yields in the 1 to 100 tons range, greatly enhanced coupling to targets, possibility to drive powerful shaped charged jets and forged fragments, enhanced prompt radiation effects, reduced collateral damage and residual radioactivity, etc.

  14. [Fourth section of: Panoramic view of] Hong Kong [circa 1900

    OpenAIRE

    Unknown

    2003-01-01

    Fourth section of a panoramic view, composed of four joined prints, looking down from the Peak onto the city of Victoria, the harbour and the Kowloon Peninsula. The first section of the panorama is largely taken up by a spur of the peak. In the bottom right of the second section are the Public Gardens, with the clock tower at the junction of Queen's Road and Peddar Street above them. In the centre of this section is the gothic Roman Catholic Cathedral, with the Victoria Goal beyond. The ce...

  15. Nanopore-based Fourth-generation DNA Sequencing Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanxiao Feng; Yuechuan Zhang; Cuifeng Ying; Deqiang Wang; Chunlei Du

    2015-01-01

    Nanopore-based sequencers, as the fourth-generation DNA sequencing technology, have the potential to quickly and reliably sequence the entire human genome for less than $1000, and possibly for even less than$100. The single-molecule techniques used by this technology allow us to further study the interaction between DNA and protein, as well as between protein and protein. Nanopore analysis opens a new door to molecular biology investigation at the single-molecule scale. In this article, we have reviewed academic achievements in nanopore technology from the past as well as the latest advances, including both biological and solid-state nanopores, and discussed their recent and potential applications.

  16. Constraints on Majorana Dark Matter from a Fourth Lepton Family

    CERN Document Server

    Hapola, Tuomas; Kouvaris, Chris; Panci, Paolo; Virkajarvi, Jussi

    2013-01-01

    We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC and collider physics, underground direct detectors, neutrino telescopes, and indirect astrophysical searches. Although we embed the WIMP candidate within a model of composite dynamics, the majority of our results are model independent and applicable to all models where heavy neutrinos with suppressed couplings account for the dark matter abundance.

  17. Fourth generation: Effects of heavy right-handed neutrinos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the presence of a sequential fourth generation the additional neutrino states must be sufficiently heavy to comply with the measured invisible width of the Z-boson. This can be achieved in the see-saw framework if only three out of the heavy right-handed neutrinos have masses far above the electroweak scale. An effective theory is constructed in which the three heaviest neutrinos are integrated out. The light left-handed neutrinos become Majorana fermions, new FCNC arise and new interactions of the pseudo-Goldstone bosons occur. We discuss rare flavor-violating lepton decays.

  18. Proceedings Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming

    CERN Document Server

    Chapman, James; 10.4204/EPTCS.76

    2012-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming (MSFP 2012), taking place on 25 March, 2012 in Tallinn, Estonia, as a satellite event of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software, ETAPS 2012. MSFP is devoted to the derivation of functionality from structure. It highlights concepts from algebra, semantics and type theory as they are increasingly reflected in programming practice, especially functional programming. The workshop consists of two invited presentations and eight contributed papers on a range of topics at that interface.

  19. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2009-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 (July - September 2009). Tasks reports include: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool. Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting. Phase II, (4) Update and Maintain Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), (5) Verify MesoNAM Performance (6) develop a Graphical User Interface to update selected parameters for the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLlT)

  20. Stable patterns for fourth-order parabolic equations

    OpenAIRE

    van den Berg, J. B.; Vandervorst, R. C.

    2002-01-01

    We consider fourth-order parabolic equations of gradient type. For the sake of simplicity, the analysis is carried out for the specific equation $u\\sb t=-\\gamma\\ u\\sb {xxxx}+\\beta u\\sb {xx}-F\\sp \\prime(u)$ with $(t,x)\\in (0,\\infty)\\times(0, L)$ and $\\gamma,\\beta>0$ and where $F(u)$ is a bistable potential. We study its stable equilibria as a function of the ratio $\\gamma/beta\\sp 2$. As the ratio $\\gamma/beta\\sp 2$ crosses an explicit threshold value, the number of stable ...

  1. The virtual return of "fourth" and "fifth" generation migrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gredelj Stjepan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aims of the project are twofold: the first one is to get insight into scope, structure, everyday life, opinions and plans of our people who live abroad as the fourth and fifth generations of emigrants, specially those who left the country during 90s. The second is checking and recording their preparedness for "return" to mother-country through complex set of activities and arrangements: return (repatriation, capital investments, know-how and skills investments, preservation and strengthening cultural identity of our people abroad and development their links with the ethnic/cultural background and inheritance.

  2. Rulison Site groundwater monitoring report. Fourth quarter, 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes the results of the fourth quarter 1997 groundwater sampling event for the Rulison Site, which is located approximately 65 kilometers (km) (40 miles [mi]) northeast of Grand Junction, Colorado. This is the eighth and final sampling event of a quarterly groundwater monitoring program implemented by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This program monitored the effectiveness of remediation of a drilling effluent pond that had been used to store drilling mud during drilling of the emplacement hole for a 1969 gas stimulation test conducted by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (the predecessor agency to the DOE) and Austral Oil Company (Austral)

  3. Symmetries, Large Leptonic Mixing and a Fourth Generation

    CERN Document Server

    Silva-Marcos, Joaquim I

    2002-01-01

    We show that large leptonic mixing occurs most naturally in the framework of the Sandard Model just by adding a fourth generation. One can then construct a small $Z_4$ discrete symmetry, instead of the large $S_{4L}\\times S_{4R}$, which requires that the neutrino as well as the charged lepton mass matrices be proportional to a $4\\times 4$ democratic mass matrix, where all entries are equal to unity. Without considering the see-saw mechanism, or other more elaborate extensions of the SM, and contrary to the case with only 3 generations, large leptonic mixing is obtained when the symmetry is broken.

  4. Scale-invariant scalar spectrum from the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term

    CERN Document Server

    Myung, Yun Soo

    2015-01-01

    An exactly scale-invariant spectrum of scalar perturbation generated during de Sitter spacetime is found from the gravity model of the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term. The nonminimal derivative coupling term generates a healthy (ghost-free) fourth-order derivative term, while the fourth-order term provides an unhealthy (ghost) fourth-order derivative term. The Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum obtained from Fourier transforming the fourth-order propagator in de Sitter space is recovered by computing the power spectrum in its momentum space directly. It shows that this model provides a truly scale-invariant spectrum, in addition to the Lee-Wick scalar theory.

  5. An automatic seismic signal detection method based on fourth-order statistics and applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xi-Qiang; Cai Yin; Zhao Rui; Zhao Yin-Gang; Qu Bao-An; Feng Zhi-Jun; Li Hong

    2014-01-01

    Real-time, automatic, and accurate determination of seismic signals is critical for rapid earthquake reporting and early warning. In this study, we present a correction trigger function (CTF) for automatically detecting regional seismic events and a fourth-order statistics algorithm with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for determining the direct wave phase, based on the differences, or changes, in energy, frequency, and amplitude of the direct P- or S-waves signal and noise. Simulations suggest for that the proposed fourth-order statistics result in high resolution even for weak signal and noise variations at different amplitude, frequency, and polarization characteristics. To improve the precision of establishing the S-waves onset,fi rst a specifi c segment of P-wave seismograms is selected and the polarization characteristics of the data are obtained. Second, the S-wave seismograms that contained the specifi c segment of P-wave seismograms are analyzed by S-wave polarizationfi ltering. Finally, the S-wave phase onset times are estimated. The proposed algorithm was used to analyze regional earthquake data from the Shandong Seismic Network. The results suggest that compared with conventional methods, the proposed algorithm greatly decreased false and missed earthquake triggers, and improved the detection precision of direct P- and S-wave phases.

  6. Policy options in a worst case climate change world

    OpenAIRE

    Swart, R.J.; Marinova, N.A.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic changes more rapid and extreme than assessed by the IPCC cannot be excluded, because of the possibility of positive earth system feedbacks and thresholds. Do today's policy makers have to take these into account, and if so, are the options different from those considered today? The paper briefly summarizes the types of extreme climatic changes noted in the literature and then evaluates the options to address them in a what-if manner. Different from other studies, which usually look a...

  7. "Climate change" and vulnerability analysis: poor will become poorer

    OpenAIRE

    Ozer, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) considers new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warme...

  8. Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.;

    2013-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1...

  9. Tradeoff Analysis Between Economic Development and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for River Nile Basin Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) briefings have declared that the growing population in the Nile river basin region (about 160 million, or 57% of the entire population of the basin’s ten riparian countries) is at risk of water scarcity. Adjustment strategies in response to cl...

  10. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and scientific consensus: How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Knut H. Alfsen; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-01-01

    In its Second Assessment Report (SAR) from 1995 the IPCC concluded that «The balance of evidence, from changes in global mean surface air temperature and from changes in geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of atmospheric temperature, suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. There are uncertainties in key factors, including the magnitude and patterns of long-term natural variability.» Although carefully worded the statement has created a rather heated debate, ...

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  12. Pseudospectral collocation methods for fourth order differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Alaeddin; Phillips, Timothy N.

    1994-01-01

    Collocation schemes are presented for solving linear fourth order differential equations in one and two dimensions. The variational formulation of the model fourth order problem is discretized by approximating the integrals by a Gaussian quadrature rule generalized to include the values of the derivative of the integrand at the boundary points. Collocation schemes are derived which are equivalent to this discrete variational problem. An efficient preconditioner based on a low-order finite difference approximation to the same differential operator is presented. The corresponding multidomain problem is also considered and interface conditions are derived. Pseudospectral approximations which are C1 continuous at the interfaces are used in each subdomain to approximate the solution. The approximations are also shown to be C3 continuous at the interfaces asymptotically. A complete analysis of the collocation scheme for the multidomain problem is provided. The extension of the method to the biharmonic equation in two dimensions is discussed and results are presented for a problem defined in a nonrectangular domain.

  13. Saving the fourth generation Higgs with radion mixing

    CERN Document Server

    Frank, Mariana; Toharia, Manuel

    2012-01-01

    We study Higgs-radion mixing in a warped extra dimensional model with Standard Model fields in the bulk, and we include a fourth generation of chiral fermions. The main problem with the fourth generation is that, in the absence of Higgs-radion mixing, it produces a large enhancement in the Higgs production cross-section, now severely constrained by LHC data. We analyze the production and decay rates of the two physical states emerging from the mixing and confront them with present LHC data. We show that the current signals observed can be compatible with the presence of one, or both, of these Higgs-radion mixed states (the $\\phi$ and the $h$), although with a severely restricted parameter space. In particular, the radion interaction scale must be quite low, Lambda_\\phi ~ 1-1.3 TeV. If m_\\phi ~ 125 GeV, the $h$ state must be heavier (m_h>320 GeV). If m_h ~ 125 GeV, the $\\phi$ state must be quite light or close in mass (m_\\phi ~ 120 GeV). We also present the modified decay branching ratios of the mixed Higgs-ra...

  14. Towards a fourth spatial dimension of brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozzi, Arturo; Peters, James F

    2016-06-01

    Current advances in neurosciences deal with the functional architecture of the central nervous system, paving the way for general theories that improve our understanding of brain activity. From topology, a strong concept comes into play in understanding brain functions, namely, the 4D space of a "hypersphere's torus", undetectable by observers living in a 3D world. The torus may be compared with a video game with biplanes in aerial combat: when a biplane flies off one edge of gaming display, it does not crash but rather it comes back from the opposite edge of the screen. Our thoughts exhibit similar behaviour, i.e. the unique ability to connect past, present and future events in a single, coherent picture as if we were allowed to watch the three screens of past-present-future "glued" together in a mental kaleidoscope. Here we hypothesize that brain functions are embedded in a imperceptible fourth spatial dimension and propose a method to empirically assess its presence. Neuroimaging fMRI series can be evaluated, looking for the topological hallmark of the presence of a fourth dimension. Indeed, there is a typical feature which reveal the existence of a functional hypersphere: the simultaneous activation of areas opposite each other on the 3D cortical surface. Our suggestion-substantiated by recent findings-that brain activity takes place on a closed, donut-like trajectory helps to solve long-standing mysteries concerning our psychological activities, such as mind-wandering, memory retrieval, consciousness and dreaming state. PMID:27275375

  15. Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    -management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

  16. Climate change impacts on working people : how to develop prevention policies

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Maria; Kjellström, Tord

    2010-01-01

    The evidence on negative consequences from climate change on human health and well-being is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described climate change as a threat to the climate system that sets the basis for life and human health conditions. The changing climate is expected to affect basic requirements needed to support and sustain human health such as good food, clean water, and unpolluted air, with negative effects that are expected to be unequally distributed.

  17. Adapting to Climate Change: Reconsidering the Role of Protected Areas and Protected Organisms in Western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graumlich, L. J.; Cross, M. S.; Hilty, J.; Berger, J.

    2007-12-01

    With the recent publication of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), little doubt remains among scientists that the global climate system is changing due to human influence and that climate change will have far-reaching and fundamental impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Arguably the best-documented evidence linking 20th Century warming trends to changes in physical and biological systems comes from the mountains of western North America (e.g., Figure SPM1 in Summary of Working Group 11 Report). In the West, ecosystem impacts include changes in the distribution of species as well as changing functional linkages between species such as the synchrony between flower emergence and pollinating insects. These climate impacts, when combined with other environmental stressors (e.g., altered disturbance regimes, land-use change and habitat fragmentation) portend an amplification of species extinction rates. One of the great challenges in adapting to climate change is developing and implementing policies that enhance ecological resilience in the face of these change. Clearly, the current system of nature reserves in Western North America is a fundamental asset for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the fixed- boundary nature of these protected areas presents a problem as species' ranges shift with future climate change. The loss of species whose ranges move outside of fixed park boundaries and the arrival of other species that move into protected areas could lead to significant turnover of species diversity, new species assemblages, and altered functionality. In short, reserves that were designed to protect particular species or communities may no longer serve their intended purpose under a changing climate. In this talk, we use case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the Sonoran Desert Ecosystem to define strategies for enhancing ecological resilience to climate change at

  18. Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

    2012-12-01

    waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

  19. Union des Comores - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Initial National Communication on Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    2002-01-01

    The studies made in the context of this Initial National Communication on Climate Change are based on the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1 study on impacts and adaptation of Indian Ocean small island states. Changes in climate to be anticipated in Comoros by year 2050 are estimated to be a raise in mean annual air temperature to an average of 28°C, a change that represents a 1°C increase compared to the current situation. A sea level increase o...

  20. Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Keller

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1–2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 also show national increases of 1–2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3% and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasize that CO2 fertilisation and N cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of Decoupled Land-Use Change Scenarios (DLUCS: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional

  1. Grassland production under global change scenarios for New Zealand pastoral agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.; Mullan, B.; Clark, A.

    2014-10-01

    We adapt and integrate the Biome-BGC and Land Use in Rural New Zealand models to simulate pastoral agriculture and to make land-use change, intensification of agricultural activity and climate change scenario projections of New Zealand's pasture production at time slices centred on 2020, 2050 and 2100, with comparison to a present-day baseline. Biome-BGC model parameters are optimised for pasture production in both dairy and sheep/beef farm systems, representing a new application of the Biome-BGC model. Results show up to a 10% increase in New Zealand's national pasture production in 2020 under intensification and a 1-2% increase by 2050 from economic factors driving land-use change. Climate change scenarios using statistically downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also show national increases of 1-2% in 2050, with significant regional variations. Projected out to 2100, however, these scenarios are more sensitive to the type of pasture system and the severity of warming: dairy systems show an increase in production of 4% under mild change but a decline of 1% under a more extreme case, whereas sheep/beef production declines in both cases by 3 and 13%, respectively. Our results suggest that high-fertility systems such as dairying could be more resilient under future change, with dairy production increasing or only slightly declining in all of our scenarios. These are the first national-scale estimates using a model to evaluate the joint effects of climate change, CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedbacks on New Zealand's unique pastoral production systems that dominate the nation's agriculture and economy. Model results emphasise that CO2 fertilisation and N-cycle feedback effects are responsible for meaningful differences in agricultural systems. More broadly, we demonstrate that our model output enables analysis of decoupled land-use change scenarios: the Biome-BGC data products at a national or regional level can be re

  2. Weight Loss Composition is One-Fourth Fat-Free Mass: A Critical Review and Critique of This Widely Cited Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Heymsfield, Steven B; Cristina Gonzalez, M. C.; Shen, Wei; Redman, Leanne; Thomas, Diana

    2014-01-01

    Maximizing fat loss while preserving lean tissue mass and function is a central goal of modern obesity treatments. A widely cited rule guiding expected loss of lean tissue as fat-free mass (FFM) states that approximately one-fourth of weight loss will be FFM (i.e., ΔFFM/ΔWeight = ~0.25) with the remaining three-fourths fat mass. This review examines the dynamic relations between FFM, fat mass, and weight changes that follow induction of negative energy balance with hypocaloric dieting and/or ...

  3. Nuclear energy is part of the solution to struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document is a contribution to the preparation of the Paris COP21 conference. It recalls the main objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, and then states and discusses three main issues to reach these objectives: the world will need all low-carbon energies including nuclear energy (80 per cent of electricity must be low-carbon within 35 years; CO2 emissions must be reduced while meeting humanity basic needs; the IPCC has identified three types of low-carbon electricity: renewable, nuclear, and based on carbon capture and sequestration; the electrification of uses is an efficient vector of de-carbonation), it is urgent to use available low-carbon energies right now (70 per cent of the carbon budget has already been consumed; nuclear energy is an available industrial low-carbon solution; nuclear energy is the first source of low-carbon electricity in OECD countries and this is an asset to be preserved to meet climate objectives; nuclear energy is a solution to support a low-carbon growth in emerging countries; nuclear energy will remain a stake to reduce CO2 emissions), and each country should have access to the larger as possible portfolio of low-carbon technologies (very few scenarios succeed in remaining under the 2 degree C limit without nuclear; all national objectives and peculiarities must be integrated for each country joining the struggle against climate change; nuclear energy allows the reduction of CO2 emissions while strengthening supply safety and economic safety; within 35 years, the technology portfolio will be larger due to the development of energy storage systems, renewable energies and fourth-generation reactors)

  4. PRIST: a fourth-generation tool for medical information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristiani, P; Larizza, C

    1990-04-01

    PRIST is a fourth-generation software package purposely oriented to development and management of medical applications, running under MS/DOS IBM compatible personal computers. The tool has been developed on the top of DBIII Plus language utilizing the Clipper Compiler networking features for the integration in a LAN environment. Several routines written in C and BASIC Microsoft languages integrated this DBMS-kernel system providing I/O, graphics, statistics, retrieval utilities. To increase the interactivity of the system both menu-driven and windowing interfaces have been implemented. PRIST has been utilized to develop a wide variety of small medical applications ranging from research laboratories to intensive care units. The great majority of reactions from the use of these applications were positive, confirming that PRIST is able to assist in practice management and patient care as well as research purposes. PMID:2345045

  5. Results of the fourth IAEA standard problem test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The International Atomic Energy Agency organized and conducted its fourth Standard Problem Exercise in 1993 to 1994. The test for the Exercise was provided by Hungary, the KFKI Atomic Energy Research Institute. The experimental basis was the PMK-2, an integral-type model of the Paks Nuclear Power Plant of VVER-440/213-type. Numerous countries/organizations participated in the computer code validation. Exercise from both the countries having VVER-type reactors and western organizations. The Exercise showed the applicability of sophisticated thermohydraulics system codes to VVER reactors, with some weaknesses in the predictions. This paper gives an insight into the SPE-4 test, especially from the point of view of VVER-specific phenomena by evaluating the key parameters of the test and comparing it with examples of computer code validation. The paper is a contribution to the Hungarian-Slovenian co-operation on the application of FFT method to PMK-2 based code validation.(author)

  6. A novel circuit architecture for fourth subharmonie mixers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Changfei; Xu Conghai; Zhou Ming; Luo Yunsheng

    2012-01-01

    A circuit topology for high-order subharmonic (SH) mixers is described.By phase cancellation of idle frequency components,the SH mixer circuit can eliminate the complicated design procedure of idle frequency circuits.Similarly,the SH mixer circuit can achieve a high port isolation by phase cancellation of the leakage LO,RF and idle frequency signals.Based on the high-order SH mixer architecture,a new Ka-band fourth SH mixer is analyzed and designed,it shows the lowest measured conversion loss of 8.3 dB at 38.4 GHz and the loss is lower than 10.3 dB in 34-39 GHz.Measured LO-IF,RF-LO,RF-IF port isolation are better than 30.7 dB,22.9dB and 46.5 dB,respectively.

  7. Wormhole geometries in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varieschi, Gabriele U.; Ault, Kellie L.

    2016-04-01

    We present an analysis of the classic wormhole geometries based on conformal Weyl gravity, rather than standard general relativity. The main characteristics of the resulting traversable wormholes remains the same as in the seminal study by Morris and Thorne, namely, that effective super-luminal motion is a viable consequence of the metric. Improving on previous work on the subject, we show that for particular choices of the shape and redshift functions the wormhole metric in the context of conformal gravity does not violate the main energy conditions at or near the wormhole throat. Some exotic matter might still be needed at the junction between our solutions and flat spacetime, but we demonstrate that the averaged null energy condition (as evaluated along radial null geodesics) is satisfied for a particular set of wormhole geometries. Therefore, if fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity is a correct extension of general relativity, traversable wormholes might become a realistic solution for interstellar travel.

  8. Wormhole geometries in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Varieschi, Gabriele U

    2015-01-01

    We present an analysis of the classic wormhole geometries based on conformal Weyl gravity, rather than standard general relativity. The main characteristics of the resulting traversable wormholes remain the same as in the seminal study by Morris and Thorne, namely, that effective super-luminal motion is a viable consequence of the metric. Improving on previous work on the subject, we show that for particular choices of the shape and redshift functions, the wormhole metric in the context of conformal gravity does not violate the main energy conditions, as was the case of the original solutions. In particular, the resulting geometry does not require the use of exotic matter at or near the wormhole throat. Therefore, if fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity is a correct extension of general relativity, traversable wormholes might become a realistic solution for interstellar travel.

  9. Proceedings of the fourth annual conference on fossil energy materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkins, R.R.; Braski, D.N. (comps.)

    1990-08-01

    The Fourth Annual Conference on Fossil Energy Materials was held in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on may 15--17, 1990. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy through the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Materials Program, and ASM International. The objective of the AR TD Materials Program is to conduct research and development on materials for longer-term fossil energy applications as well as for generic needs of various fossil fuel technologies. The work is divided into the following categories: (1) Ceramics, (2) New Alloys, (3) Corrosion and Erosion, and (4) Technology Assessment and Technology Transfer. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases.

  10. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management

    CERN Document Server

    Boulanger, Frédéric; Krob, Daniel; Marchal, Clotilde

    2014-01-01

    This book contains all refereed papers that were accepted to the fourth edition of the « Complex Systems Design & Management » (CSD&M 2013) international conference which took place in Paris (France) from December 4-6, 2013. These proceedings cover the most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences & practices from an industrial and academic perspective, including the main industrial domains (transport, defense & security, electronics, energy & environment, e-services), scientific & technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture & engineering, systems metrics & quality, systemic tools) and system types (transportation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of systems, artificial ecosystems). The CSD&M 2013 conference is organized under the guidance of the CESAMES non-profit organization

  11. The RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE): Fourth data release

    CERN Document Server

    Kordopatis, G; Steinmetz, M; Boeche, C; Seabroke, G M; Siebert, A; Zwitter, T; Binney, J; de Laverny, P; Recio-Blanco, A; Williams, M E K; Piffl, T; Enke, H; Roeser, S; Bijaoui, A; Wyse, R F G; Freeman, K; Munari, U; Carillo, I; Anguiano, B; Burton, D; Campbell, R; Cass, C J P; Fiegert, K; Hartley, M; Parker, Q A; Reid, W; Ritter, A; Russell, K S; Stupart, M; Watson, F G; Bienayme, O; Bland-Hawthorn, J; Gerhard, O; Gibson, B K; Grebel, E K; Helmi, A; Navarro, J F; Conrad, C; Famaey, B; Faure, C; Just, A; Kos, J; Matijevic, G; McMillan, P J; Minchev, I; Scholz, R; Sharma, S; Siviero, A; de Boer, E Wylie; Zerjal, M

    2013-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances and distances determined for 425 561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). The stellar atmospheric parameters are computed using a new pipeline, based on the algorithms of MATISSE and DEGAS. The spectral degeneracies and the 2MASS photometric information are now better taken into consideration, improving the parameter determination compared to the previous RAVE data releases. The individual abundances for six elements (magnesium, aluminum, silicon, titanium, iron and nickel) are also given, based on a special-purpose pipeline which is also improved compared to that available for the RAVE DR3 and Chemical DR1 data releases. Together with photometric information and proper motions, these data can be retrieved from the RAVE collaboration website and the Vizier database.

  12. [Postdonation information: the French fourth hemovigilance sub-process].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Py, J-Y; Sandid, I; Jbilou, S; Dupuis, M; Adda, R; Narbey, D; Djoudi, R

    2014-11-01

    Postdonation information is the knowledge of information about the donor or his donation, occurring after it, which challenges quality or safety of the blood products stemming from this or other donations. Classical hemovigilance sub-processes concerning donors or recipients adverse events do not cover this topic. France is just about to make it official as a fourth sub-process. Less formal management of postdonation information is already set up for more than ten years. French data of the year 2013 are presented, including the regional notification level and the national reporting one. A significant level of heterogeneity is observed as for other hemovigilance sub-processes. It is mainly due to subjective rather than objective differences in risk appreciation. A real consensual work is expected about it in the future. PMID:25282491

  13. The Fourth Gravity Test and Quintessence Matter Field

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Molin; Yu, Fei; Gui, Yuanxing

    2010-01-01

    After the previous work on gravitational frequency shift, light deflection (arXiv:1003.5296) and perihelion advance (arXiv:0812.2332), we calculate carefully the fourth gravity test, i.e. radar echo delay in a central gravity field surrounded by static free quintessence matter, in this paper. Through the Lagrangian method, we find the influence of the quintessence matter on the time delay of null particle is presence by means of an additional integral term. When the quintessence field vanishes, it reduces to the usual Schwarzschild case naturally. Meanwhile, we also use the data of the Viking lander from the Mars and Cassini spacecraft to Saturn to constrain the quintessence field. For the Viking case, the field parameter $\\alpha$ is under the order of $10^{-9}$. However, $\\alpha$ is under $10^{-18}$ for the Cassini case.

  14. Minutes of the fourth SALE program participants meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a documentation of the presentations made to the Fourth Safeguards Analytical Laboratory Evaluation (S.A.L.E.) Program Participants Meeting at Argonne, Illinois, July 8-9, 1981. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy and was coordinated by the S.A.L.E. Program of the New Brunswick Laboratory. The objective of the meeting was to provide a forum through which administration of the Program and methods appropriate to the analysis of S.A.L.E. Program samples could be discussed. The Minutes of the Meeting is a collection of presentations by the speakers at the meeting and of the discussions following the presentations. The presentations are included as submitted by the speakers. The discussion sections were transcribed from tape recordings of the meeting and were edited to clarify and emphasize important comments. Seventeen papers have been abstracted and indexed

  15. Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hills, Richard Guy; Witkowski, Walter R.; Urbina, Angel; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2013-09-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNL's mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

  16. CAS CERN Accelerator School: Fourth general accelerator physics course

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The fourth CERN Accelerator School (CAS) basic course on General Accelerator Physics was given at KFA, Juelich, from 17 to 28 September 1990. Its syllabus was based on the previous similar courses held at Gif-sur-Yvette in 1984, Aarhus 1986, and Salamanca 1988, and whose proceedings were published as CERN Reports 85-19, 87-10, and 89-05, respectively. However, certain topics were treated in a different way, improved or extended, while new subjects were introduced. All of these appear in the present proceedings, which include lectures or seminars on the history and applications of accelerators, phase space and emittance, chromaticity, beam-beam effects, synchrotron radiation, radiation damping, tune measurement, transition, electron cooling, the designs of superconducting magnets, ring lattices, conventional RF cavities and ring RF systems, and an introduction to cyclotrons. (orig.)

  17. The Radial Velocity Experiment (RAVE): Fourth Data Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordopatis, Georges; RAVE Collaboration

    2014-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances and distances determined for 425 561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the intermediate spectroscopic stellar survey of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). Compared to previous RAVE data releases, the present one increases the available catalog size by an order of magnitude. The stellar atmospheric parameters are computed using a new pipeline, based on the algorithms of MATISSE and DEGAS. The spectral degeneracies and the 2MASS photometric information are now better taken into consideration, improving the parameter determination compared to the previous RAVE data releases. The individual abundances for six elements (magnesium, aluminum, silicon, titanium, iron and nickel) are also given, based on a special-purpose pipeline which is also improved compared to that available for the previous data releases. Together with photometric information and proper motions, these data can be retrieved from the RAVE collaboration website and the Vizier database.

  18. Fourth ICT Innovations conference ”Secure and Intelligent Systems”

    CERN Document Server

    Gusev, Marjan; ICT Innovations 2012 : Secure and Intelligent Systems

    2013-01-01

    The present stage of the human civilization is the e-society, which is build over the achievements obtained by the development of the information and communication technologies. It affects everyone, from ordinary mobile phone users to designers of high quality industrial products, and every human activity, from taking medical care to improving the state governing. The science community working in computer sciences and informatics is therefore under constant challenge; it has to solve the new appeared theoretical problem as well as to find new practical solutions. \\\\ The fourth ICT Innovations Conference, held in September 2012 in Ohrid, Macedonia, was one of the several world-wide forums where academics, professionals and practitioners presented their last scientific results and development applications in the fields of high performance and parallel computing, bioinformatics, human computer interaction, security and cryptography, computer and mobile networks, neural networks, cloud computing, process verifica...

  19. Statement of incidents at nuclear installations fourth quarter 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The three incidents which are reported for the fourth quarter of 1985 occurred at Transfynydd and Hinkley Point-B reactors (operated by CEGB) and there is a follow-up report on an earlier incident at Hunterston A reactor (operated by the South of Scotland Electricity Board). The Transfynydd incident concerned a fire in conventional plant and although the reactor was shut down as a precaution, the damage was limited to conventional plant and there was no radiation hazard. The two incidents at Hinkley Point-B concerned a boiler tube leak which allowed high pressure steam into the coolant gas circuit and a leakage of reactor coolant gas which caused the site emergency arrangements to be invoked but which caused no contamination outside the reactor building. The Hunterston-A report concerns the replacement of an active effluent discharge pipeline which had been found to have a leak. (UK)

  20. Dynamical Properties in a Fourth-Order Nonlinear Difference Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianyi Li

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The rule of trajectory structure for fourth-order nonlinear difference equation xn+1=(xan−2+xn−3/(xan−2xn−3+1, n=0,1,2,…, where a∈[0,1 and the initial values x−3,x−2,x−1,x0∈[0,∞, is described clearly out in this paper. Mainly, the lengths of positive and negative semicycles of its nontrivial solutions are found to occur periodically with prime period 15. The rule is 4+,3−,1+,2−,2+,1−,1+, 1− in a period. By utilizing this rule its positive equilibrium point is verified to be globally asymptotically stable.

  1. Opportunities and threats of the fourth industrial revolution and their reflection in the selection of innovative growth strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Illiashenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. Analysis and systematization of possible effects of the fourth industrial revolution both positive and negative, development of recommendations for innovative development strategies formation which would allow the use of opportunities for social and economic growth and will prevent treats. The results of the analysis. Based on a systematic analysis of the literature and practice of management allocated the positive and negative effects of the introduction of innovative technologies (both existing and forecasted, created in line with the fourth industrial revolution. The results of their systematization can be used as basis for the formation of an information base to determine the priorities of innovation. It is shown that distribution of the changes caused by the fourth industrial revolution and the completion of the fifth technological way and the transition to the sixth provide chances to individual institutions and national economies to move to outstripping innovative development. On the example of Ukraine and modern forms of work organization (freelance for the various sectors of activity it is shown that domestic experts have leading positions in global markets, they are successfully implementing the technology generated by the fourth industrial revolution. It demonstrates the significant potential of transition to the sixth technological way. The generalized scheme of formation of Ukrainian innovative development priority directions in line with the concept of technological advance is developed. It is shown that Ukraine has considerable potential for innovation growth which is relevant to the terms of the fourth industrial revolution. In particular, the 2015 world rankings in knowledge and innovation, it had high enough position: knowledge creation – 14; innovation effectiveness – 15; spending on education – 18; number of applications for patents – 19; number of graduates in science and technology – 20

  2. The fourth shift: exploring the gendered nature of sleep disruption among couples with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, Susan; Arber, Sara; Meadows, Robert; Hislop, Jenny

    2008-03-01

    The study of sleep has been neglected within sociology, yet may provide insights into fundamental aspects of the nature of gender inequalities. This article examines how, for couples with children, sleep is influenced by the gendered nature of caring. A key concern is not only who gets up to care for children's physical needs at night, but whether this changes with women's increased role in the labour market. Of concern also is how changes in the nature of caring for older children, as opposed to young children, may impact on parents' sleep. This article analyses qualitative data from an ESRC funded multi-disciplinary project on couples' sleep based on in-depth audio-tape recorded interviews with 26 couples (aged 20-59) with younger and older children. Additionally, one week's audio sleep diaries were completed and follow up in-depth interviews were undertaken with each partner on an individual basis. Physical and emotional care for young children at night was largely provided by women, with a lack of explicit negotiation between partners about who provides this care, even when women return to employment. Thus, considerably more women than men continued their daytime and evening shifts, as well as undertaking an ongoing third shift of sentient activity for their family, into the night. This resulted in a fourth night-time shift where physical caring, and sentient activities continued. As a consequence, women were more likely to subjugate their own sleep needs to those of their family. Fathers did not, in general, undertake this fourth night-time shift. Those that did were more likely to be the fathers of young adult children who were staying out late at night, with the focus of their concerns being the safety of their children. PMID:18321332

  3. Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States

    OpenAIRE

    C. W. Woodall; Walters, B. F.; J. W. Coulston; A. W. D’Amato; G. M. Domke; Russell, M. B; P. A. Sowers

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying forest carbon (C) stocks and stock change within a matrix of land use (LU) and LU change is a central component of large-scale forest C monitoring and reporting practices prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using a region–wide, repeated forest inventory, forest C stocks and stock change by pool were examined by LU categories. In eastern US forests, LU change is a substantial component of C sink strength (~37% of forest sink strength) only secondary ...

  4. Changes in the Alpine environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Schoeneich

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available L’évolution de l’environnement alpin au XXIe siècle sera conditionnée par le changement climatique. Celui-ci pourrait conduire à des climats inconnus à ce jour dans les Alpes, avec comme conséquence une crise environnementale majeure et durable. Face à ces défis, les financements de recherche restent insuffisants pour la recherche appliquée aux milieux de montagne. Les financements nationaux privilégient souvent la recherche polaire au détriment des hautes altitudes, alors que les financements de type Interreg prennent insuffisamment en compte les besoins de recherche fondamentale, préalable nécessaire à l’élaboration de scénarios. Une évolution se dessine depuis deux ou trois ans vers des projets en réseau à l’échelle alpine. Le présent article fait le point sur les principaux enjeux qui attendent la recherche environnementale alpine et sur la capacité des programmes de recherche à répondre aux besoins. La première partie sur les changements climatiques est fondée sur les rapports récents : rapport de synthèse IPCC 2007 (IPCC 2007, rapport IPCC sur l’Europe (Alcamo et al. 2007, rapport de synthèse du programme ClimChAlp (Prudent-Richard et al., 2008. On y trouvera des bibliographies complètes et circonstanciées. La deuxième partie se base sur une analyse des appels d’offres récents ou en cours, et des projets soumis et financés.The way the Alpine environment will evolve in the 21st century depends upon climate change. This could lead to climates never before seen in the Alps, resulting in a major and lasting environmental crisis. In the face of these challenges, funding is still insufficient for specialised research on mountain environments. State funding often prioritises polar research at the expense of high altitude areas, whereas funding schemes from bodies such as Interreg do not sufficiently address the need for fundamental research, which is nevertheless a necessary first step prior to

  5. Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Q.-B.

    2014-04-01

    In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850-1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that

  6. Analysis and development of fourth order LCLC resonant based capacitor charging power supply for pulse power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naresh, P.; Hitesh, C.; Patel, A.; Kolge, T.; Sharma, Archana; Mittal, K. C.

    2013-08-01

    A fourth order (LCLC) resonant converter based capacitor charging power supply (CCPS) is designed and developed for pulse power applications. Resonant converters are preferred t utilize soft switching techniques such as zero current switching (ZCS) and zero voltage switching (ZVS). An attempt has been made to overcome the disadvantages in 2nd and 3rd resonant converter topologies; hence a fourth order resonant topology is used in this paper for CCPS application. In this paper a novel fourth order LCLC based resonant converter has been explored and mathematical analysis carried out to calculate load independent constant current. This topology provides load independent constant current at switching frequency (fs) equal to resonant frequency (fr). By changing switching condition (on time and dead time) this topology has both soft switching techniques such as ZCS and ZVS for better switching action to improve the converter efficiency. This novel technique has special features such as low peak current through switches, DC blocking for transformer, utilizing transformer leakage inductance as resonant component. A prototype has been developed and tested successfully to charge a 100 μF capacitor to 200 V.

  7. Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

  8. Solvability of a fourth order boundary value problem with periodic boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaitan P. Gupta

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available Fourth order boundary value problems arise in the study of the equilibrium of an elastaic beam under an external load. The author earlier investigated the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the nonlinear analogues of fourth order boundary value problems that arise in the equilibrium of an elastic beam depending on how the ends of the beam are supported. This paper concerns the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fourth order boundary value problems with periodic boundary conditions.

  9. Solvability of a fourth order boundary value problem with periodic boundary conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Chaitan P. Gupta

    1988-01-01

    Fourth order boundary value problems arise in the study of the equilibrium of an elastaic beam under an external load. The author earlier investigated the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the nonlinear analogues of fourth order boundary value problems that arise in the equilibrium of an elastic beam depending on how the ends of the beam are supported. This paper concerns the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fourth order boundary value problems with periodic boundary co...

  10. A rare case of retained fourth molar teeth in maxilla and mandible. Case report

    OpenAIRE

    Rahnama Mansur; Szyszkowska Anna; Pulawska Marta; Szczerba-Gwozdz Joanna

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a case of the rarely occurring totally retained fourth molar teeth simultaneously in maxilla and mandible. The appearance of supernumerary teeth is a relatively uncommon dental anomaly and it is rare for patients to have impacted fourth molars in two quadrant. The aim of this work is to describe the presence of unilateral (right) fourth molars in the maxilla and the mandible in a young female patient aged 24 years. Orthopantomogram revealed impacted lower third molars but a...

  11. Fourth-order convergence of a compact scheme for the one-dimensional biharmonic equation

    OpenAIRE

    Fishelov, D; Ben-Artzi, M; Croisille, J-P

    2012-01-01

    The convergence of a fourth-order compact scheme to the one-dimensional biharmonic problem is established in the case of general Dirichlet boundary conditions. The compact scheme invokes value of the unknown function as well as Pade approximations of its first-order derivative. Using the Pade approximation allows us to approximate the first-order derivative within fourth-order accuracy. However, although the truncation error of the discrete biharmonic scheme is of fourth-order at interior poi...

  12. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  13. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.70C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  14. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show that...... economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  15. Vicarious calibration of the third and fourth Stokes parameters of Windsat measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Microwave observations made at the third and fourth Stokes parameters can be used to determine the surface wind direction over oceans. However, due to their smaller amplitudes (less than 3 K at the third Stokes parameter and 1 K at the fourth Stokes parameter), the absolute calibration to these measurements becomes crucial. A new methodology is developed in this study to calibrate the Windsat third and fourth Stokes parameters through tropical rain forest measurements over the Amazon and central Africa. It is found that the Windsat fourth Stokes parameter at 18 GHz has biases of the order of 0.5 K, which could severely affect the wind vector retrievals

  16. The locality of the fourth root of staggered fermion determinant in the interacting case

    CERN Document Server

    Bernard, C; Gottlieb, S; Heller, U; Hetrick, J E; Levkova, L; Maresca, F; Renner, D; Sugar, R; Toussaint, D; Gottlieb, Steven

    2005-01-01

    The fourth root approximation in LQCD simulations with dynamical staggered fermions requires justification. We test its validity numerically in the interacting theory in a renormalization group framework.

  17. Effect of climate change on temperate forest ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Brolsma, R.J.

    2010-01-01

    In temperate climates groundwater can have a strong effect on vegetation, because it can influence the spatio-temporal distribution of soil moisture and therefore water and oxygen stress of vegetation. Current IPCC climate projections based on CO2 emission scenarios show a global temperature rise and change in precipitation regime, which will affect hydrological and vegetation systems. This thesis provides a quantitative framework for studying eco-hydrology in groundwater influenced temperate...

  18. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  19. A coming anarchy? : Pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa

    OpenAIRE

    van Baalen, Sebastian; Mobjörk, Malin

    2016-01-01

    The warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and will have a strong impact on the security of humans and states alike. In the past half-century the climate system has changed in unprecedented ways and future climate change and variability will include long-lasting alterations to all components of the climate system. With the warming of the climate system and the recognition of the implications that this has for the availab...

  20. Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

    OpenAIRE

    Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

    2012-01-01

    Background: Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods: Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results: Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions: There...

  1. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

  2. Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Milo D. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems. In this workshop, as in previous workshops, the problems were devised to gauge the technological advancement of computational techniques to calculate all aspects of sound generation and propagation in air directly from the fundamental governing equations. A variety of benchmark problems have been previously solved ranging from simple geometries with idealized acoustic conditions to test the accuracy and effectiveness of computational algorithms and numerical boundary conditions; to sound radiation from a duct; to gust interaction with a cascade of airfoils; to the sound generated by a separating, turbulent viscous flow. By solving these and similar problems, workshop participants have shown the technical progress from the basic challenges to accurate CAA calculations to the solution of CAA problems of increasing complexity and difficulty. The fourth CAA workshop emphasized the application of CAA methods to the solution of realistic problems. The workshop was held at the Ohio Aerospace Institute in Cleveland, Ohio, on October 20 to 22, 2003. At that time, workshop participants presented their solutions to problems in one or more of five categories. Their solutions are presented in this proceedings along with the comparisons of their solutions to the benchmark solutions or experimental data. The five categories for the benchmark problems were as follows: Category 1:Basic Methods. The numerical computation of sound is affected by, among other issues, the choice of grid used and by the boundary conditions. Category 2:Complex Geometry. The ability to compute the sound in the presence of complex geometric surfaces is important in practical applications of CAA. Category 3:Sound Generation by Interacting With a Gust. The practical application of CAA for computing noise generated by turbomachinery involves the modeling of the noise source mechanism as a

  3. EDITORIAL: The Fourth International Workshop on Microfactories (IWMF'04)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jiaru; Maeda, Ryutaro

    2005-10-01

    This special section of Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering is devoted to the fourth International Workshop on Microfactories. After the first three successful Workshops, which took place in Tsukuba, Japan in 1998, Fribourg, Switzerland in 2000 and Minneapolis, USA in 2002, the fourth (IWMF'04) was held in Shanghai, China on 15-17 October 2004. The concept of the `microfactory' and miniaturized production systems was first proposed by the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory in Japan who demonstrated the feasibility of downsizing energy-saving, distributed and eventually environmentally conscious manufacturing systems. There is incredible potential in reducing the physical scale of numerous processes related to the manufacture of many forms of future dense `mechatronic' products and in the manipulation of microscopic and nanoscopic objects and materials for the benefit of mankind. Small systems capable of these operations can be referred to as `microfactories'. A worldwide effort is currently underway to bring such microfactories to fruition. MEMS, MST and micromachines are regarded as synonyms, but they do not necessarily have the same meaning. In particular, differences can be found in their technological approaches. Roughly speaking, research and development in the USA is based primarily on surface or bulk silicon micromachining processes, and the ideal realization of MEMS seems to be the monolithic device. The European approach also focuses on integration between electronics and mechanics but, especially in connection with the development of `µTAS', it also demands the integration of non-mechanical components into the system. In Japan the approaches for MST are said to be rather less focused. Besides the above-mentioned `classical' microsystem technologies, down-scaling of conventional manufacturing methods, or non-silicon based device processing within this field, completely new technological methods are also considered as `microsystem technologies

  4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  5. Hanford Seismic Annual Report and Fourth Quarter Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AC Rohay; DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel

    1999-12-07

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network. (EWRN) consist of 40 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. A major reconfiguration of the HSN was initiated at the end of this quarter and the results will be reported in the first quarter report for next fiscal year (FY2000). For the HSN, there were 390 triggers during the fourth quarter of fiscal year(FY) 1999 on the primary recording system. With the implementation of dual backup systems during the second quarter of the fiscal year and an overall increase observed in sensitivity, a total of 1632 triggers were examined, identified, and processed during this fiscal year. During the fourth quarter, 24 seismic events were located by the HSN within the reporting region of 46 degrees to 47 degrees north latitude and 119 degrees to 120 degrees west longitude 9 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 10 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement; and 2 were quarry blasts. One earthquake appears to be related to a major geologic structure, 14 earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 7 earthquakes were random occurrences.

  6. Measuring the volume of the fourth ventricle in healthy Chinese adults of the Han nationality on the high-resolution MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Objective: To explore the normal range of the fourth ventricle volume of Chinese adults of the Han nationality and provide morphological data for the construction of database for Chinese Standard Brain. Methods: This is a clinical multi-center study. One thousand Chinese healthy volunteers (age range = 18 to 70) recruited from 15 hospitals were divided into 5 groups, i.e., Group A (age range = 18 to 30), B (age range =31 to 40), C (age range =41 to 50), D (age range =51 to 60), and E (age range =61 to 70). Each group contained 100 males and 100 females. All of the volunteers were scanned by MR using T1 weighted three-dimensional magnetization prepared rapid acquisition gradient echo sequence. After three dimension data reconstruction, the volumes of the fourth ventricle were measured at sagittal view by automatic trace of Midobl. 2 combined with manual outlining. The difference of volumes of the fourth ventricle between male and female were analyzed by independent sample t test, and among age groups by ANOVA. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to characterize the relationship between volumes of the fourth ventricle and age. Results: The fourth ventricle volumes of Group A-E were (2.1 ± 0.9), (2.1 ± 0.8), (2.2 ± 0.8), (2.1 ± 1.0) and (2.4 ± 0.8) ml respectively for male; those for female were (2.0 ± 0.7), (1.9 ± 0.6), (18 ± 0.6), (1.9 ± 0.7) and (2.0 ± 0.6) ml respectively. The fourth ventricle volumes of males were significantly larger than those of females (t=5.573, P=0.000); there were no significant differences among the female groups (F=1.788, P=0.130); there were significant differences among the male groups (F=2.639, P=0.033) and multiple comparison found that the 60 years old was the watershed with significant difference (P<0.05). Correlation between the change of males' volumes and the ages was not strong (r=0.119, P=0.008), and the females' volumes did not correlated with their ages (r=0.041,P=0.360). Conclusion: There are gender

  7. Climate change - The Macedonia's First National Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impacts, consequences and concerns of the international community; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Activities in the Republic of Macedonia, establishing the Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and the National Climate Change Committee. Preparation of the Macedonia's First National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Analyzing on the thematic areas of the Nationals Communications. The inventory of greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions was prepared according to IPCC Guidelines (IPCC), taking into consideration the three main GHGs:carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O). The main sources of CO2 emissions are the electricity production, the production and the transport. GHG abatement analysis and projections of emissions are prepared in accordance to the Macedonian economy and possibilities for development. The analysis of the energy sector is elaborated in a most advanced way, especially regarding the electricity production. According to the IS92a scenario (prepared by IPCC) the average annual temperature in Macedonia could arise for 4,6o C by 2100, and the average summer temperature could arise for 5.1o C. The average sum of precipitation will decrease for 6.3% in 2100, but the most alarming is the sum of precipitation in summer, which could decrease for 2.5%. Venerability assessment and adaptation measures are elaborated in the following sectors: agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources and human health. The National Action Plan sets out the objectives and initial points for undertaking measures, contributing to the reduction of GHG emissions at national level. (Author)

  8. Natural gas imports and exports; Fourth quarterly report, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-12-31

    The Office of Fuels Programs prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports with the OFP. This report is for the fourth quarter of 1993 (October--December). Attachment A shows the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent reporting quarters. Attachment B shows volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months. Attachment C shows volume and price information for gas imported on a short-term basis. Attachment D shows the gas exported on a short-term basis to Canada and Mexico. During 1993, data indicates gas imports grew by about 10 percent over the 1992 level (2328 vs. 2122 Bcf), with Canadian and Algerian imports increasing by 8 and 82 percent, respectively. During the same time period, exports declined by 41 percent (144 vs. 243 Bcf). Exports to Canada decreased 47 percent from the 1992 level (50 vs. 95 Bcf) and exports to Mexico decreased by 60 percent (38 vs. 95 Bcf).

  9. Robust Optimization of Fourth Party Logistics Network Design under Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth Party Logistics (4PL network faces disruptions of various sorts under the dynamic and complex environment. In order to explore the robustness of the network, the 4PL network design with consideration of random disruptions is studied. The purpose of the research is to construct a 4PL network that can provide satisfactory service to customers at a lower cost when disruptions strike. Based on the definition of β-robustness, a robust optimization model of 4PL network design under disruptions is established. Based on the NP-hard characteristic of the problem, the artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and the genetic algorithm (GA are developed. The effectiveness of the algorithms is tested and compared by simulation examples. By comparing the optimal solutions of the 4PL network for different robustness level, it is indicated that the robust optimization model can evade the market risks effectively and save the cost in the maximum limit when it is applied to 4PL network design.

  10. CERN announces the fourth annual Beamline for Schools competition

    CERN Multimedia

    BL4S team

    2016-01-01

    CERN is pleased to announce the fourth annual Beamline for Schools (BL4S) competition. Once again, in 2017, a fully equipped beamline will be made available at CERN for students. As in previous years, two teams will be invited to the Laboratory to execute the experiments they proposed in their applications. The 2017 competition is being made possible thanks to support from the Alcoa Foundation for the second consecutive year.   The competition is open to teams of high-school students aged 16 or older who, if they win, are invited (with two supervisors) to CERN to carry out their experiment. Teams must have at least five students but there is no upper limit to a team’s size (although just nine students per winning team will be invited to CERN). Teams may be composed of pupils from a single school, or from a number of schools working together. As science-loving mega-celebrity Will.I.Am told us: “If you’re interested in science, technology, engineering or ...

  11. Toward a fourth-generation X-ray source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The field of synchrotron radiation research has grown rapidly over the last 25 years due to both the push of the accelerator and magnet technology that produces the x-ray beams and the pull of the extraordinary scientific research that is possible with them. Three successive generations of synchrotrons radiation facilities have resulted in beam brilliances 11 to 12 orders of magnitude greater than the standard laboratory x-ray tube. However, greater advances can be easily imagined given the fact that x-ray beams from present-day facilities do not exhibit the coherence or time structure so familiar with the optical laser. Theoretical work over the last ten years or so has pointed to the possibility of generating hard x-ray beams with laser-like characteristics. The concept is based on self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) in flee-electron lasers. A major facility of this type based upon a superconducting linac could produce a cost-effective facility that spans wave-lengths from the ultraviolet to the hard x-ray regime, simultaneously servicing large numbers experimenters from a wide range of disciplines. As with each past generation of synchrotrons facilities, immense new scientific opportunities would result from fourth-generation sources.

  12. Toward a fourth-generation x-ray source.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monction, D. E.

    1999-05-19

    The field of synchrotron radiation research has grown rapidly over the last 25 years due to both the push of the accelerator and magnet technology that produces the x-ray beams and the pull of the extraordinary scientific research that is possible with them. Three successive generations of synchrotrons radiation facilities have resulted in beam brilliances 11 to 12 orders of magnitude greater than the standard laboratory x-ray tube. However, greater advances can be easily imagined given the fact that x-ray beams from present-day facilities do not exhibit the coherence or time structure so familiar with the optical laser. Theoretical work over the last ten years or so has pointed to the possibility of generating hard x-ray beams with laser-like characteristics. The concept is based on self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) in flee-electron lasers. A major facility of this type based upon a superconducting linac could produce a cost-effective facility that spans wave-lengths from the ultraviolet to the hard x-ray regime, simultaneously servicing large numbers experimenters from a wide range of disciplines. As with each past generation of synchrotrons facilities, immense new scientific opportunities would result from fourth-generation sources.

  13. Organometallic rotaxane dendrimers with fourth-generation mechanically interlocked branches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Li-Jun; Wang, Xu-Qing; Sun, Bin; Li, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Yanyan; Shi, Jiameng; Yu, Yihua; Zhang, Li; Liu, Minghua; Yang, Hai-Bo

    2015-01-01

    Mechanically interlocked molecules, such as catenanes, rotaxanes, and knots, have applications in information storage, switching devices, and chemical catalysis. Rotaxanes are dumbbell-shaped molecules that are threaded through a large ring, and the relative motion of the two components along each other can respond to external stimuli. Multiple rotaxane units can amplify responsiveness, and repetitively branched molecules—dendrimers—can serve as vehicles for assembly of many rotaxanes on single, monodisperse compounds. Here, we report the synthesis of higher-generation rotaxane dendrimers by a divergent approach. Linkages were introduced as spacer elements to reduce crowding and to facilitate rotaxane motion, even at the congested periphery of the compounds up to the fourth generation. The structures were characterized by 1D multinuclear (1H, 13C, and 31P) and 2D NMR spectroscopy, MALDI-TOF-MS, gel permeation chromatography (GPC), and microscopy-based methods including atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). AFM and TEM studies of rotaxane dendrimers vs. model dendrimers show that the rotaxane units enhance the rigidity and reduce the tendency of these assemblies to collapse by self-folding. Surface functionalization of the dendrimers with ferrocenes as termini produced electrochemically active assemblies. The preparation of dendrimers with a well-defined topological structure, enhanced rigidity, and diverse functional groups opens previously unidentified avenues for the application of these materials in molecular electronics and materials science. PMID:25902491

  14. The Fourth US Naval Observatory CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC4)

    CERN Document Server

    Zacharias, Norbert; Girard, Terry; Henden, Arne; Bartlett, Jennifer; Monet, Dave; Zacharias, Marion

    2012-01-01

    The fourth United States Naval Observatory (USNO) CCD Astrograph Catalog, UCAC4 was released in August 2012 (double-sided DVD and CDS data center Vizier catalog I/322). It is the final release in this series and contains over 113 million objects; over 105 million of them with proper motions. UCAC4 is an updated version of UCAC3 with about the same number of stars also covering all-sky. Bugs were fixed, Schmidt plate survey data were avoided, and precise 5-band photometry were added. Astrograph observations have been supplemented for bright stars by FK6, Hipparcos and Tycho-2 data to compile a UCAC4 star catalog complete to about magnitude R = 16. Epoch 1998 to 2004 positions are obtained from observations with the 20 cm aperture USNO Astrograph's red lens, equipped with a 4k by 4k CCD. Mean positions and proper motions are derived by combining these observations with over 140 ground- and space-based catalogs, including Hipparcos/Tycho and the AC2000.2, as well as unpublished measures of over 5000 plates from ...

  15. Fourth Data Challenge for the ALICE data acquisition system

    CERN Multimedia

    Maximilien Brice

    2003-01-01

    The ALICE experiment will study quark-gluon plasma using beams of heavy ions, such as those of lead. The particles in the beams will collide thousands of times per second in the detector and each collision will generate an event containing thousands of charged particles. Every second, the characteristics of tens of thousands of particles will have to be recorded. Thus, to be effective, the data acquisition system (DAQ) must meet extremely strict performance criteria. To this end, the ALICE Data Challenges entail step-by-step testing of the DAQ with existing equipment that is sufficiently close to the final equipment to provide a reliable indication of performance. During the fourth challenge, in 2002, a data acquisition rate of 1800 megabytes per second was achieved by using some thirty parallel-linked PCs running the specially developed DATE software. During the final week of tests in December 2002, the team also tested the Storage Tek linear magnetic tape drives. Their bandwidth is 30 megabytes per second a...

  16. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    OpenAIRE

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A; Weperen, van, W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The purpose of the shortened report is twofold: (1) to serve as a planning document to sharpen the climate change focus of research, extension and communication for development institutions (including F...

  17. Quality Teacher Induction: "Fourth-Wave" (1997-2006) Induction Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Ann L.; Stanulis, Randi Nevins

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this essay is to describe quality teacher induction that has evolved from "fourth-wave" (1997-2006) teacher induction program development and research. A definition of quality induction is proposed, and a set of induction goals and components are outlined. Understandings gained from fourth-wave programs are described, including ways…

  18. Fourth-order moments of an open harmonic oscillator (Weyl-Wigner-Moyal and Heisenberg representations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourth-order moments in momentum p and coordinate q of an open one-dimensional harmonic oscillator are studied in two different representations (Weyl-Wigner-Moyal and Heisenberg). It is shown that both representations lead to the same explicit expressions of the fourth-order moments in terms of first (centroids) and second order moments (variances). (Author)

  19. Ten years of HIV testing with fourth generation assays: The Amsterdam experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Jurriaans; N.K.T. Back; K.C. Wolthers

    2011-01-01

    Serological HIV assays combining detection of HIV antigen and antibodies are referred to as fourth generation assays. Fourth generation assays were implemented in Europe for routine patient testing about 10 years ago. The Academic Medical Center is one of the main HIV treatment centers in the Nether

  20. On stability and boundedness of solutions of a certain fourth-order delay differential equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emmanuel O. Okoronkwo

    1989-09-01

    Full Text Available Using a Razumikhin - type theorem, we deduce sufficient conditions that guarantee the uniform asymptotic stability and boundedness of solutions of a scalar real fourth-order delay differential equation. The Lyapunov function constructed for an ordinary fourth-order differential equation is seen to work for the delay system.

  1. PPN-limit of Fourth Order Gravity inspired by Scalar-Tensor Gravity

    OpenAIRE

    Capozziello, S.; Troisi, A.

    2005-01-01

    Based on the {\\it dynamical} equivalence between higher order gravity and scalar-tensor gravity the PPN-limit of fourth order gravity is discussed. We exploit this analogy developing a fourth order gravity version of the Eddington PPN-parameters. As a result, Solar System experiments can be reconciled with higher order gravity, if physical constraints descending from experiments are fulfilled.

  2. The Effects of a Teacher-Guided Library Selection Program on Fourth-Grade Reading Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Sherri M.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the impact that a teacher-guided library selection program had on overall reading scores and how this program may or may not promote reading improvement of fourth-grade students at a small suburban school in western New York. Forty fourth graders were used as the sample population, which was…

  3. ON THE INSTABILITY OF SOLUTIONS TO A NONLINEAR VECTOR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION OF FOURTH ORDER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new result related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear vector differential equation of fourth order.Our result includes and improves an instability result in the previous literature,which is related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear scalar differential equation of fourth order.

  4. The impact of the fourth SM family on the Higgs observability at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Arik, E; Sultansoy, S

    2007-01-01

    It is shown that if the fourth SM fermion family exists then the Higgs boson could be observed at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of few fb-1. The Higgs discovery potential for different channels is discussed in the presence of the fourth SM family.

  5. 78 FR 51725 - Fourth Meeting of the Advisory Committee for the 2015 World Radiocommunication Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-21

    ... COMMISSION Fourth Meeting of the Advisory Committee for the 2015 World Radiocommunication Conference AGENCY... Committee Act, this notice advises interested persons that the fourth meeting of the WRC-15 Advisory... World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-15). In accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee...

  6. 75 FR 2141 - Fourth Meeting of the Advisory Committee for the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-14

    ... COMMISSION Fourth Meeting of the Advisory Committee for the 2012 World Radiocommunication Conference AGENCY... Committee Act, as amended, this notice advises interested persons that the fourth meeting of the WRC-12 Advisory Committee will be held at the Federal Communications Commission. The purpose of the meeting is...

  7. Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under a projected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCC HadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrology model that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologic changes in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assuming unchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and will the groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conducted four 10 yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without the groundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET will increase due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite a decrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain PET or atmospheric demand-limited. Second, in the eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despite increasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soil water or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the eastern Amazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth, river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in the southeastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we found that the slow soil drainage constrained by shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress, particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if groundwater buffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than that projected by most climate models. (letter)

  8. A rare case of retained fourth molar teeth in maxilla and mandible. Case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahnama Mansur

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a case of the rarely occurring totally retained fourth molar teeth simultaneously in maxilla and mandible. The appearance of supernumerary teeth is a relatively uncommon dental anomaly and it is rare for patients to have impacted fourth molars in two quadrant. The aim of this work is to describe the presence of unilateral (right fourth molars in the maxilla and the mandible in a young female patient aged 24 years. Orthopantomogram revealed impacted lower third molars but also unerupted unilateral (right upper and lower fourth molars. Before orthodontic treatment, the patient was subsequently admitted for removal of third and fourth impacted upper and lower molars under local anesthesia.

  9. Preface to the first monograph: The Fourth Psychiatric Revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajai R. Singh

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available At present, psychiatry is in the midst of a fourth revolution. The first revolution was the so-called Moral Treatment which involved the activism of Phileppe Pinel (1745-1826 and William Tuke (1732-1819, as also the efforts of Dorothea Dix (1802-1887. This resulted in destigmatization of the lunatic label which had earlier meant treating the insane in a dehumanizing manner e.g.. chaining them to walls, displaying them for money etc. It resulted in the transition to custodial care and the opening of mental hospitals. The second psychiatric revolution was the Mental Hygiene Movement heralded by the eye­opening works of Elizabeth Packard (Modern Persecution or Insane Hospital Unveiled and Clifford Beers (1876-1943; A Mind That Found Itself which was furthered by, amongst others, pioneers like Adolf Meyer (1866-1950 and William James (1842-1910. This was followed by the third Psychiatric revolution, that of the Community Psychiatry Movement. This involved community participation, removal of restrictions, comprehensive set of services multi-disciplinary in nature, active consumer participation, mental health consultancy and preventive measures. This well intentioned grand movement had its problems, as all such grand movement must indeed have. It became the fountain­source of a fresh crop of difficulties related to transinstitutionalization in boarding and halfway houses, with increased rates of hospital admission, and the 'revolving door syndrome'. Moreover, it lead to an ominous rise in contact between the criminal justice system and the mentally ill as they moved more freely in the community.Today, we are in the midst of a silent by strong fourth revolution. Firstly, this revolution reiterates its strong linkage with the mainstream of medicine. Secondly, it bases itself on strong, empirical findings based on rigorous methodological studies, mainly biological. The major paradigm shift of contemporary psychiatry is towards methodological rigour on

  10. National report card on energy efficiency: Fourth annual report card on government activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-04-01

    The objective of this fourth annual report card produced by the Canadian Energy Efficiency Alliance is, as before, to identify government commitments to energy efficiency and to raise the awareness and importance of providing the necessary mechanisms that support energy efficiency in the market place. For the first time this year, the report card includes an assessment of the role of crown utilities and local distribution utilities in the promotion of energy efficiency. Their results were combined with those of the provincial government to develop a aggregate grade for each province. The ratings are based on ten categories, encompassing building codes, energy efficiency legislation, regulatory infrastructure, programs and public outreach, in-house programs, innovative new programs, performance and evaluation, climate change and Voluntary Change Registry reporting, and access to government information. Performance is rated by way of a narrative summary and a letter grade which represents the aggregate of performance in all ten categories. Best performance was recorded by Quebec, followed by the Yukon, the Federal Government, the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba, Alberta, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan, in that order.

  11. Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Management in the Skagit River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, S.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Based on global climate model (GCM) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and subsequent hydrologic modeling studies for the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Skagit River Basin are likely to be substantial under natural (unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of increasing extreme flows (floods and low flows) and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily time step reservoir operations model was built for the Skagit River Basin. The model simulates current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s and 2080s using five different GCMs with the A1B emissions scenarios, and estimates sediment loading. By simulating alternative reservoir operating policies that provide increased flood storage and start flood evacuation one month earlier, prospects for adaptation in response to increased flood risks are considered. Results from the daily time step reservoir operations modeling show that regulated hydrologic extremes in the basin will likely become more intense. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase substantially in the future in comparison with historical regulated 100-year flood (23% by the 2040s and 40% by the 2080s). The regulated extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) are also projected to decrease by about 30 % in the future. Alternative flood control operations (earlier and larger drafting of reservoirs) are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating the increased flood risks in the lower Skagit, supporting the argument that climate change adaptation efforts will need to focus primarily on improving management of the floodplain, rather than focusing on modifying flood control operations in existing headwater projects. Projected changes in the Skagit River's flow regime are shown to have dramatic effects on estimated total suspended sediment load in the

  12. Trade Liberalisation and Climate Change: A CGE Analysis of the Impacts on Global Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Calzadilla, Alvaro; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2011-01-01

    Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture, and its interactions with trade liberalisation as proposed for the Doha Development Round. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an ex...

  13. Introduction to the symposium theme : climate change in fragmented landscapes: can we develop spatial adaptation strategies?

    OpenAIRE

    Verboom, J.; Vos, C.C.

    2007-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses, man has a discernible influence on climate, and this is expected to be a long-term phenomenon affecting the environment in the forthcoming decades or even centuries. Since climate is a key driving force for ecological processes, climate change is likely to exert considerable impact on ecosystems. Since nature policy worldwide is often based upon policy plans which do not ...

  14. Assessing agriculture vulnerabilities for the design of effective measures for adaptation to climate change (AVEMAC project)

    OpenAIRE

    DONATELLI Marcello; DUVEILLER BOGDAN GRÉGORY HENRY E; Fumagalli, Davide; SRIVASTAVA AMIT KUMAR; ZUCCHINI Antonio; FASBENDER DOMINIQUE; ANGILERI Vincenzo; Kay, Simon; JUSKEVICIUS Valentinas; Toth, Tibor; Haastrup, Palle; M'BAREK Robert; ESPINOSA GODED MARIA; CIAIAN PAVEL

    2012-01-01

    This final report of the AVEMAC study presents an assessment of the potential vulnerability of European agriculture to changing climatic conditions in the coming decades. The analysis is based on weather data generated from two contrasting realizations of the A1B emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the time horizons 2020 and 2030. These two realizations (obtained from two different general circulation models, downscaled using regional climate...

  15. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are d...

  16. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed ...

  17. Xylem Variability as a Proxy for Environmental and Climate Change in Corsica During the Past Millennium

    OpenAIRE

    Hetzer, Timo

    2013-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is considered as one of the hotspots of future climate change (IPCC 2007; Christensen et al. 2007). To assess the impacts of climate change in different regions, it is helpful to have a look at the past. Proxies, i.e. data derived from different environmental archives, contain climatic or environmental information from the past. On the island of Corsica in the center of the western Mediterranean basin, high-resolution climate reconstructions for the past millennium ar...

  18. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COCOA PRODUCTION IN ONDO STATE, NIGERIA

    OpenAIRE

    Oseni, Joseph Olumide

    2011-01-01

    The paper examined the effects of climate change on cocoa production in Ondo State, Nigeria. When talking about climate change and its effects, it is important to make adjustments and interventions in order to manage the losses or take advantages of opportunities presented by it. These adjustments or interventions are known as adaptation (IPCC, 2001). Cocoa has been the second largest foreign exchange earner after crude oil and has also contributed significantly to infrastructural development...

  19. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Belda; Petr Skalák; Aleš Farda; Tomáš Halenka; Michel Déqué; Gabriella Csima; Judit Bartholy; Csaba Torma; Constanta Boroneant; Mihaela Caian; Valery Spiridonov

    2015-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective...

  20. Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

    OpenAIRE

    Heather Keith; David Lindenmayer; Andrew Macintosh; Brendan Mackey

    2015-01-01

    Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Con...