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Sample records for change ipcc fourth

  1. Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    OpenAIRE

    Seth, Anji

    2007-01-01

    This presentation gives summary of the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4): The physical science basis for climate change. It begins with a history of the theory of global climate change, followed by the important concepts surrounding global climate change: the greenhouse effect and carbon cycle and how the climate has changed throughout the earth's history. It then discusses the IPCC's assessment reports, focusi...

  2. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  3. Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W. D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Sun, Y.; Portmann, R. W.; Fu, Q.; Casanova, S. E. B.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fillmore, D. W.; Forster, P. M. D.; Galin, V. Y.; Gohar, L. K.; Ingram, W. J.; Kratz, D. P.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Li, J.; Marquet, P.; Oinas, V.; Tsushima, Y.; Uchiyama, T.; Zhong, W. Y.

    2006-07-01

    The radiative effects from increased concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) represent the most significant and best understood anthropogenic forcing of the climate system. The most comprehensive tools for simulating past and future climates influenced by WMGHGs are fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). Because of the importance of WMGHGs as forcing agents it is essential that AOGCMs compute the radiative forcing by these gases as accurately as possible. We present the results of a radiative transfer model intercomparison between the forcings computed by the radiative parameterizations of AOGCMs and by benchmark line-by-line (LBL) codes. The comparison is focused on forcing by CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, CFC-12, and the increased H2O expected in warmer climates. The models included in the intercomparison include several LBL codes and most of the global models submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In general, the LBL models are in excellent agreement with each other. However, in many cases, there are substantial discrepancies among the AOGCMs and between the AOGCMs and LBL codes. In some cases this is because the AOGCMs neglect particular absorbers, in particular the near-infrared effects of CH4 and N2O, while in others it is due to the methods for modeling the radiative processes. The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. We quantify these differences and discuss the implications for interpreting variations in forcing and response across the multimodel ensemble of AOGCM simulations assembled for the IPCC AR4.

  4. Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny; Bogner,Jean; Bosch, Peter; Dave, Rutu; Davidson, Ogunlade; Fisher, Brian; Grubb,Michael; Gupta, Sujata; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Heij, Bertjan; Kahn Ribeiro,Suzana; Kobayashi, Shigeki; Levine, Mark; Martino, Daniel; MaseraCerutti, Omar; Metz, Bert; Meyer, Leo; Nabuurs, Gert-Jan; Najam, Adil; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Rogner, Hans Holger; Roy, Joyashree; Sathaye,Jayant; Schock, Robert; Shukla, Priyaradshi; Sims, Ralph; Smith, Pete; Swart, Rob; Tirpak, Dennis; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; Zhou, Dadi

    2007-04-30

    A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.

  5. IPCC underestimates the Sun’s role in climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. van Geel; P.A. Ziegler

    2013-01-01

    For the understanding of current and future climate change it is a basic pre requisite to properly understand the mechanisms, which controlled climate change after the Last Ice Age. According to the IPCC 5th assessment report (in prep.) the Sun has not been a major driver of climate change during th

  6. EVIDENCE OF ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC CHANGES AND THEIR REGULATION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (FURTHER FINDINGS SINCE THE FOURTH IPCC ASSESSMENT REPORT RELEASED)%南极和北极地区变化对全球气候变化的指示和调控作用——第四次IPCC评估报告以来一些新认知

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈立奇

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the climate of the Arctic and the Antarctic have been of great concern to international scientific and social communities since the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was released in 2007. Since then, many new findings have been reported from observations and research carried out in the Arctic and Antarctic during the 4th International Polar Year (IPY). There is evidence that rapid changes in the Arctic and Antarctic induced by global warming are occurring in a quantitative and qualitative sense, and Arctic and Antarctic regional changes could be used indicators of global climate change. Declining Arctic sea ice could impact on winter snowfall in much of the Northern Hemisphere, with colder winters and more snow. Projections suggest that summertime Arctic sea ice will disappear by 2040. By 2050, the Antarctic ozone hole will have recovered to the level of the early 1980s, when the production of freon was completely prohibited. With weakening the shielding effect of the ozone hole to the global warming, it will become warmer in Antarctica and East Antarctica, leading to melting of ice sheets and retreating sea ice. Sea level rise will be a serious issue. As sea surface temperature rises the air-sea exchange of CO2 will be enhanced and surface water will take up more C02. This will lead to ocean acidification with important effects on ecological systems and food chains.%政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 2007年发布了第四次评估报告,全球气候变化问题再次成为一个重要的国际科学和政治议题.2007年以来,通过实施第四次国际极地年行动所获得的成果进一步证明,全球变暖所诱发极区出现的快速变化正在经历由量到质的转变,表明两极变化对全球气候变化起着一种指示和调控作用.一些研究指出:北冰洋会在2040年前后出现夏季无海冰并将引起北半球大范围的持续暴雪的寒冷冬季发生;2050

  7. Evaluation of an IPCC climate report. An analysis of conclusions on the possible regional consequences of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report contains the results of a study of the reliability of the regional chapters (H9-16) of the contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Climate Report of the IPCC (the sub report on consequences, adaptation and vulnerability). Moreover an assessment was made of the possible consequences of errors for the conclusions in the high level summaries of that report. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency did not detect any errors that may undermine the main conclusions of the scientific UN Climate Panel IPCC of 2007 on the possible future consequences of climate change. However, some of the substantiations of the conclusions lack clarity. To prevent lack of clarity and inaccuracies the IPCC needs to invest more in quality checks.

  8. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokona, Youba

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

  9. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

    2012-04-01

    In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

  10. Are the Projections of Future Climate Change Reliable in the IPCC Reports?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zongci Zhao

    2011-01-01

    @@ As we know,the projections of future climate change including impacts and strategies in the IPCC Assessment Reports were based on global climate models with scenarios on various human activities.Global climate model simulations provide key inputs for climate change assessments. In this study,the main objective is to analyze if the projections of fu-ture climate change by global climate models are reli-able.Several workshops have been held on this issue,such as the IPCC expert meeting on assessing and combining multi-model climate projections in January of 2010 (presided by the co-chairs of the IPCC WGI and WGII AR5),and the workshop of the combined global climate model group held by NCAR in June of 2010.

  11. Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

  12. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Warren Pearce

    Full Text Available In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

  13. Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-01-01

    In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

  14. The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCC AR4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  15. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and scientific consensus. How scientists come to say what they say about climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Skodvin, Tora

    1998-12-01

    This document reviews the background, organization and operation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It gives some background on climate change in the past and finally discusses what IPCC says about the likely future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. 14 refs., 8 figs.

  16. Mitigation of climate change: back to IPCC's fifth report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current knowledge on climate change mitigation, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III fifth assessment report. The report emphasizes how little room for manoeuvre there is to meet the target of a global mean surface temperature increase below 2 deg. C, if ambitious policies to reduce greenhouse gases are not implemented by 2020. It also assesses sectoral potentials for emissions reductions and addresses emerging questions, in particular regarding the financing of decarbonization pathways. The report finally highlights the need for integrated policies to take advantage of co-benefits of climate policies (health, energy security, etc.), the evaluation of which is becoming more systematic. (authors)

  17. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-lin CHEN

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3 under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  18. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang-lin CHEN; Jun-cheng ZUO; Mei-xiang CHEN; Zhi-gang GAO; C-K SHUM

    2014-01-01

    Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR), it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM), with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs), was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3) under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  19. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  20. Climate change. Important findings from the 4. fact finding report of the intergovernmental commission on climate change of the United Nations (IPCC); Klimaaenderung. Wichtige Erkentnisse aus dem 4. Sachstandsbericht des Zwischenstaatlichen Ausschusses fuer Klimaaenderungen der Vereinten Nationen (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maeder, Claudia

    2009-12-19

    The Report covers the following topics: 1. anthropogenic climate change - since when do we know about it? 2. IPCC - the intergovernmental commission for climate change. 3. Assignable causes for climate change: changes of incoming solar radiation, changes of the reflected solar radiation, change of the heat radiation lost into space, aerosols, internal variability of the climate system. 4. Historical climate changes in long periods. 5. Development of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 6. Observed climate changes. 7. Projections of future climate changes. 8. Consequences of climate change: consequences of the actual temperature increase, possible future consequences, freshwater resources and their management, ecosystems, agricultural production, coastal regions and low lying areas.

  1. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  2. Methods for interfacing IPCC climate change scenarios with higher resolution watershed management models in the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Z. M.; MacAlister, C.; Fuka, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    As much as 90% of the Nile River flow that reaches Egypt originates in the Highlands of the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. This imbalance in water availability poses a threat to water security in the region, and could be severely impacted by projected climate change. This analysis coupled hydrodynamic/watershed models with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 climate change scenarios to assess the potential impact on water resources and sediment dynamics. Specific AR4 scenarios include the A1B, B1, B2 and COMMIT, which were used to force the baseline hydrodynamic models calibrated against 1979-2011 streamflow for 20 sub-watersheds in the Tana and Beles basins. Transfer functions were developed to distribute the model parameters from the calibrated sub-watersheds to un-gauged portions of the basins based on a similarity index of hydrologic response units. We analyzed the scenario in two manners: first we ran all of the seven individual Global Circulation Model results in the IPCC AR4 report though our watershed models to asses the potential spread of climate change predictions; then we assessed the mean value produced for each IPCC AR4 scenario to better estimate convergence. Results indicate that the Tana basin is expected to experience an increase in mean annual flow. The Beles basin is predicted to experience a small decrease in mean annual flow. Sediment concentrations in the Tana basin increase proportionally more than the flow increase. Interestingly, and perhaps counter to what might be expected for a decrease in flow in the Beles basin, sediment concentrations increase.

  3. IPCC's Climate Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Almlund, Pernille

    The work of IPCC is an important work and contribution to the global discussion and global challenge of climate change. But this work is primarily based on computer modelling, natural science, economic science and as a new perspective a stronger focus on the risk perspective than in earlier IPCC...... reports. This paper is based on a wonder of why the IPCC’s analysis and reports are not, to a higher degree, based on social science and human science. Are these scientific perspectives with many different approaches not important to this global political awareness of climate change? Especially now when...... all the IPCC’s assessment report have concluded that climate changes are human made and recently stated that 97 % of all climate researchers agree in that conclusion. Due to the theoretical work of Michel Callon, Lascoumes and Barthe (2011) and their ANT perspective, climate change can be observed...

  4. IPCC and other assessments as vehicles for integrating natural and social science research to address human dimensions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2012-12-01

    IPCC and other assessments address both natural and social science aspects of climate change, but this approach has historically involved relatively little integration across the two sets of disciplines. In a framing that is only slightly oversimplified, past relationships were mostly sequential. From a physical climate perspective, human behavior was a boundary condition setting the trajectory of atmospheric forcing. And from an impacts perspective, changes in the physical climate set the stage upon which humans experienced impacts and made decisions about adaptation and mitigation. Integrated assessment models have been the main locus of research on questions about bi-directional coupling, where the trajectory of the physical climate influences GHG balance related to the need for agricultural land as well as GHG emissions from other activities. In the IPCC AR4 (2007), feedbacks from the natural carbon cycle to climate were a focus, but with little discussion of the potentially important feedbacks from climate-carbon interactions in the human domain. Detailed research and modeling in this area are still in the relatively early stages. For the future, IPCC and other assessments potentially provide a vehicle for new insights about the interaction of natural and social science dimensions of climate change. Several aspects could be interesting. Some of these relate to the decisions that modulate GHG emissions. For example, how does scientific understanding of climate change influence people's interest in mitigation and adaptation? How does it influence their willingness to pay? How are these modulated by regional and global geopolitics? Other potentially interesting aspects relate to interactions between mitigation and adaptation. For example, how does local experience of climate change alter the balance of focus on adaptation and mitigation? Still others relate to the nature of impacts and the role of sustainable development. With an aggress sustainable development

  5. Noaa contributions to the 1995 IPCC assessments: A summary of the current and future activities of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contents: introduction -the IPCC and NOAA; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 science assessment; NOAA contributions to the IPCC 1995 impacts, adaptation, and mitigation assessment; NOAA contributions to the 1995 IPCC economics and greenhouse-gas scenario assessment

  6. Global observed long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes: A review of progress and limitations in IPCC assessments and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa V. Alexander

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC first attempted a global assessment of long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in its Third Assessment Report in 2001. While data quality and coverage were limited, the report still concluded that heavy precipitation events had increased and that there had been, very likely, a reduction in the frequency of extreme low temperatures and increases in the frequency of extreme high temperatures. That overall assessment had changed little by the time of the IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX in 2012 and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 in 2013, but firmer statements could be added and more regional detail was possible. Despite some substantial progress throughout the IPCC Assessments in terms of temperature and precipitation extremes analyses, there remain major gaps particularly regarding data quality and availability, our ability to monitor these events consistently and our ability to apply the complex statistical methods required. Therefore this article focuses on the substantial progress that has taken place in the last decade, in addition to reviewing the new progress since IPCC AR5 while also addressing the challenges that still lie ahead.

  7. The Fourth Way of Technology and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    Recent social policy reforms have sought to overcome the limitations of "First Way" strategies emphasizing the welfare state and "Second Way" approaches advocating markets. Scholars and policymakers instead have begun to explore optimal synthesis of the public and private sector in a new "Third Way" of leadership and change. According to one line…

  8. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Kokkalis, Alexandros; Bardarson, H.;

    2016-01-01

    Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise...... evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine...... science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even...

  9. Assessing impact of climate change on season length in Karnataka for IPCC SRES scenarios

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Aavudai Anandhi

    2010-08-01

    Changes in seasons and season length are an indicator, as well as an effect, of climate change. Seasonal change profoundly affects the balance of life in ecosystems and impacts essential human activities such as agriculture and irrigation. This study investigates the uncertainty of season length in Karnataka state, India, due to the choice of scenarios, season type and number of seasons. Based on the type of season, the monthly sequences of variables (predictors) were selected from datasets of NCEP and Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3). Seasonal stratifications were carried out on the selected predictors using K-means clustering technique. The results of cluster analysis revealed increase in average, wet season length in A2, A1B and B1 scenarios towards the end of 21st century. The increase in season length was higher for A2 scenario whereas it was the least for B1 scenario. COMMIT scenario did not show any change in season length. However, no change in average warm and cold season length was observed across the four scenarios considered. The number of seasons was increased from 2 to 5. The results of the analysis revealed that no distinct cluster could be obtained when the number of seasons was increased beyond three.

  10. The social costs of climate change. The IPCC second assessment report and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is expected to have far-reaching impacts. Earlier studies have estimated an aggregated monetised damage equivalent to 1.5 to 2.0 % of World GDP (for 2 x CO2). According to these estimates, the OECD would face losses equivalent to 1.0 to 1.5 % of GDP, and developing countries 2.0 to 9.0 %. While these figures are preliminary and highly uncertain, recent findings have not, as yet, changed the general picture. As is shown in this paper, estimates that are fully corrected for differences in purchasing power parity do not significantly differ from the initial figures. Newer studies increasingly emphasise adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors, and the need for integrated assessment of damages. Incorporating these factors has lead to increased differences in estimated impacts between different regions and sectors. Estimates of market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, while non-market impacts have become more important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view. Earlier estimates range from about $5 to $125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on power functions in the level of climate change. The rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will differ from current vulnerability: market impacts could fall (relatively) with economic growth while non-market impacts may rise. 6 tabs., 65 refs

  11. Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pedersen, M.W.; Kokkalis, A.; Bardarson, H.; Bonanomi, S.; Boonstra, W.J.; Butler, W.E.; Diekert, F.K.; Fouzai, N.; Holma, M.; Holt, R.E.; Kvile, K.; Nieminen, E.; Ottosen, K.M.; Richter, A.P.; Rogers, L.A.; Romagnoni, G.; Snickars, M.; Tornroos, A.; Weigel, B.; Whittington, J.D.; Yletyinen, J.; Ferreira, A.S.A.

    2016-01-01

    Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise a

  12. Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

    2008-01-01

    In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

  13. IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its

  14. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

  15. Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

  16. Emissions from tropical hydropower and the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Tropical dams emit greenhouse gases, which are undercounted in IPCC guidelines. • IPCC comparisons with other energy sources undercount hydroelectric emissions. • GHG inventories must fully count emissions as a basis for negotiating national quotas. • The IPCC needs to reassess emissions from dams independent of the hydropower industry. - Abstract: Tropical hydroelectric emissions are undercounted in national inventories of greenhouse gases under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), giving them a role in undermining the effectiveness of as-yet undecided emission limits. These emissions are also largely left out of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, and have been excluded from a revision of the IPCC guidelines on wetlands. The role of hydroelectric dams in emissions inventories and in mitigation has been systematically ignored

  17. Renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany)); Pichs Madruga, R. (Centro de Investigaciones de la Economia Mundial (CIEM), Hanoi (Viet Nam)); Sokona, Y. (African Climate Policy Centre, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)) (and others)

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is one of the great challenges of the 21st century. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems. Renewable energy sources have a large potential to displace emissions of greenhouse gases from the combustion of fossil fuels and thereby to mitigate climate change. If implemented properly, renewable energy sources can contribute to social and economic development, to energy access, to a secure and sustainable energy supply, and to a reduction of negative impacts of energy provision on the environment and human health. This Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) impartially assesses the scientific literature on the potential role of renewable energy in the mitigation of climate change for policymakers, the private sector, academic researchers and civil society. It covers six renewable energy sources - bioenergy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy - as well as their integration into present and future energy systems. It considers the environmental and social consequences associated with the deployment of these technologies, and presents strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion. The authors also compare the levelized cost of energy from renewable energy sources to recent non-renewable energy costs. (Author)

  18. Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2014-01-01

    The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

  19. Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

    2016-03-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

  20. Regulating Knowledge Monopolies: The Case of the IPCC

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a new entrant would have to invest time and effort over a longer period to perhaps match the reputation, trust, goodwill, and network of the IPCC. The IPCC is a not-for-profit organization, and it is ...

  1. Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beyene, T.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Kabat, P.

    2010-01-01

    We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scen

  2. Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Stock Changes in Agro-ecosystems using CQESTR, DayCent, and IPCC Tier 1 Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Models are often used to quantify how land use change and management impact soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks because it is often not feasible to use direct measuring methods. Because models are simplifications of reality, it is essential to compare model outputs with measured values to evaluate mode...

  3. Changes of Atmospheric Water Balance over China under the IPCC SRES A1B Scenario Based on RegCM3 Simulations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Bo; JIANG Da-Bang

    2012-01-01

    Simulations of the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario were employed to investigate possible decadal changes and long-term trends of annual mean atmospheric water balance components over China in the 21st century with reference to the period of 1981-2000. An evaluation showed that RegCM3 can reasonably reproduce annual evapotranspiration, precipitation, and water vapor transport over China, with a better performance for March–June. It was found that the water vapor exchange between the land surface and atmosphere would be significantly intensified in Northwest China by the mid-to late-21st century and that the region would possibly shift to a wetter or drought-mitigated state under global warming. Conversely, the water vapor exchange evidently weakened over the Tibetan Plateau and South-west China by the mid-to late-21st century. In addition, there appears to be a drier state for Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley by the mid-to late-21st century, with slight mitigation by the end compared with the mid-21st century. The westerly and southwesterly water vapor transport over China generally presents an increasing trend, with increasing diver-gence over the Tibetan Plateau and Northeast China, corresponding to a loss of atmospheric water vapor by water vapor transport.

  4. Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2011-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statistical analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.

  5. Applying IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) land-use projections in a regional assessment of land-use change in the conterminous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherba, J.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) include global land-use change projections for four global emissions scenarios. These projections are potentially useful for driving regional-scale models needed for informing land-use and management interactions. Here, we applied global gridded RCP land-use projections within a regional-scale state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change in the conterminous United States. First, we cross-walked RCP land-use transition classes to land-use classes more relevant for modeling at the regional scale. Coarse grid RCP land-use transition values were then downscaled to EPA Level III ecoregion boundaries using historical land-use transition data from the USGS Land Cover Trends (LCT) dataset. Downscaled transitions were aggregated to the ecoregion level. Ecoregions were chosen because they represent areas with consistent land-use patterns that have proven useful for studying land-use and management interactions. Ecoregion-level RCP projections were applied in a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) projecting land-use change between 2005 and 2100 at the 1-km scale. Resulting RCP-based STSM projections were compared to STSM projections created using scenario projections from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and the USGS LCT dataset. While most land-use trajectories appear plausible, some transitions such as forest harvest are unreasonable in the context of historical land-use patterns and the socio-economic drivers of change outlined for each scenario. This effort provides a method for using the RCP land-use projections in a wide range of regional scale models. However, further investigation is needed into the performance of RCP land-use projections at the regional scale.

  6. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

    2013-01-01

    To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

  7. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO2 Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  8. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Jean; Pipatti, Riitta; Hashimoto, Seiji; Diaz, Cristobal; Mareckova, Katarina; Diaz, Luis; Kjeldsen, Peter; Monni, Suvi; Faaij, Andre; Gao, Qingxian; Zhang, Tianzhu; Ahmed, Mohammed Abdelrafie; Sutamihardja, R T M; Gregory, Robert

    2008-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets.

  9. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bogner, J.P.; Pipatti, R.; Hashimoto, S.;

    2008-01-01

    protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition...... through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste...... quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline...

  10. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, Jean; Pipatti, Riitta; Hashimoto, Seiji; Diaz, Cristobal; Mareckova, Katarina; Diaz, Luis; Kjeldsen, Peter; Monni, Suvi; Faaij, Andre; Gao, Qingxian; Zhang, Tianzhu; Ahmed, Mohammed Abdelrafie; Sutamihardja, R T M; Gregory, Robert

    2008-02-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets. PMID:18338699

  11. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  12. Emulating IPCC AR4 atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models for projecting global-mean, hemispheric and land/ocean temperatures: MAGICC 6.0

    OpenAIRE

    Meinshausen, M.; RAPER S.c.b.; Wigley, T. M. L.

    2008-01-01

    Current scientific knowledge on the future response of the climate system to human-induced perturbations is comprehensively captured by various model intercomparison efforts. In the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intercomparisons were organized for atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models, named "CMIP3" and "C4MIP", respectively. Despite their tremendous value fo...

  13. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some

  14. Social Media in the Changing Ecology of News: The Fourth and Fifth Estate in Britain

    OpenAIRE

    Dutton, William H.; Grant Blank; Nic Newman

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides a case study of the changing patterns of news production and consumption in the UK that are being shaped by the Internet and related social media. Theoretically, this focus addresses concern over whether the Internet is undermining the Fourth Estate role of the press in liberal democratic societies. The case study draws from multiple methods, including survey research of individuals in Britain from 2003-2011, analysis of log files of journalistic sites, and interviews with...

  15. Social Media in the Changing Ecology of News: The Fourth and Fifth Estate in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William H. Dutton

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study of the changing patterns of news production and consumption in the UK that are being shaped by the Internet and related social media. Theoretically, this focus addresses concern over whether the Internet is undermining the Fourth Estate role of the press in liberal democratic societies. The case study draws from multiple methods, including survey research of individuals in Britain from 2003-2011, analysis of log files of journalistic sites, and interviews with journalists. Survey research shows a step-jump in the use of online news since 2003 but a levelling off since 2009. However, the apparent stability in news consumption masks the growing role of social network sites. The analyses show that the Fourth Estate—the institutional news media—is using social media to enhance their role in news production and dissemination. However, networked individuals have used social media to source and distribute their own information in ways that achieve a growing independence from the Fourth Estate journalism. As more information moves online and individuals become routinely linked to the Internet, an emerging Fifth Estate, built on the activities of networked individuals sourcing and distributing their own information, is developing a synergy with the Fourth Estate as each builds on and responds to the other in this new news ecology. Comparative data suggests that this phenomenon is likely to characterize the developing news ecology in other liberal democratic societies as well, but more comparative research is required to establish the validity of this model.

  16. Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

    2007-01-01

    This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

  17. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  18. Mudanças na circulação atmosférica sobre a América do Sul para cenários futuros de clima projetados pelos modelos globais do IPCC AR4 Changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern over South America in future climate scenarios derived from the IPCC AR4 model climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María C Valverde

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho são analisadas as mudanças no padrão de circulação que possam vir a acontecer no clima da América do Sul (AS, como conseqüência do aumento nas concentrações dos gases de efeito estufa. Para isto utilizam-se cinco modelos globais do IPCC AR4 (CCCMA, GFDL, HadCM3, MIROC e GISS, para o clima do século XX (1961-1990 - 20C3M e para o cenário futuro SRES_A2 (2011-2100. As características em comum que os modelos apresentaram (a exceção do MIROC para as três climatologias futuras (2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100, principalmente, no verão e na primavera, foram o deslocamento da baixa continental (associada à baixa do Chaco para o sudoeste da sua posição climatológica (1961-1990, e da Alta da Bolívia para o noroeste. Além disso, os cinco modelos simularam, para o clima presente, uma Alta do Pacífico Sul (APS menos intensa em relação à Reanálise do NCEP, sugerindo menor subsidência sobre a sua região de atuação. Para cenários futuros os modelos GISS e HadCM3 simularam a APS menos intensa. Por outro lado, para a alta do Atlântico Sul, não existiu um consenso nos modelos. Em geral foi simulada mais intensa (a exceção do GISS, sobretudo no outono e no inverno. O modelo HadCM3 simulou a circulação de verão e primavera mais próxima à Reanálise, com uma ZCAS melhor definida, e uma área menor de anomalias negativas de chuva sobre a Amazônia, em relação aos outros modelos. Já para o cenário futuro este modelo modificou seu padrão de chuvas, e anomalias positivas, sobre a costa norte do Peru e Equador, e negativas sobre o Nordeste e leste da Amazônia, foram observadas, associadas a uma APS enfraquecida e deslocada para o sul, o que reforçou a ZCIT do Pacífico sobre 5ºS. Uma diminuição da convergência de umidade sobre a Amazônia também foi observada.In this paper changes in the atmospheric circulation that may occur in the South America (SA as a consequence of climate change were studied for

  19. Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  20. The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change will affect agricultural production. Combining a climate model and a crop growth model furnishes a good approach for analyzing this effect quantitatively. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of climate change on summer maize phenology in northwest Shandong province under the A1B climate scenario using a regional climate model and the CERES-Maize growth model. The results showed that the temperature would increase significantly during the maize growth season in the study region, that the increased temperature would shorten the maize growth stage and result in a potential yield loss using the current cultivar, and that it is critical to breed a heat-resistant and late-maturing cultivar to maintain the yield

  1. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre; Masera, Omar; Moench, Marcus; Schaeffer, Roberto; Seitzinger, Sybil; van der Leeuw, Sander; Ward, Bob; Stern, Nicholas; Hurrell, James; Srivastava, Leena; Morgan, Jennifer; Nobre, Carlos; Sokona, Youba; Cremades, Roger; Roth, Ellinor; Liverman, Diana; Arnott, James

    2014-12-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

  2. The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BUHE Cholaw(布和朝鲁); Ulrich CUBASCH; LIN Yonghui(林永辉); JI Liren(纪立人)

    2003-01-01

    This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCCSRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-oceancoupled general circulation nodel. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlargesthe land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation tobe strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increasessignificantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward toNorth China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitationwould increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability ofthe precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.

  3. Fourth annual progress report for Canada's Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Examples of how greenhouse gas issues are being integrated into management processes within Suncor Energy Inc. are described in this fourth annual progress report to the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry Program. The report covers Suncor's three operating businesses - oil sands and conventional oil exploration and production in Western Canada, and refining and marketing operation in Ontario. Oil sands was the largest source of greenhouse emissions, accounting for 2/3 of the total. Carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 93 per cent of total emissions. This report addresses three areas of change: one of these is Project Millennium in the oil sands division, which is a major expansion project planned for efficiency improvements. As a result of the project, total greenhouse gas emissions will increase to 9.3 million tonnes by the year 2002, in terms of operating efficiency, emissions per unit of production will continue to decline from 0.54 tonnes ECO2 in 1990 to 0.44 tonnes ECO2 in 2002, a reduction of 18 per cent. Another change is that target reductions in the Kyoto Protocol will supersede informal Canadian commitments for the year 2000, if the protocol is ratified. Thirdly, Suncor's greenhouse gas emission forecast has been extended to the year 2002 to demonstrate the impact of Project Millennium and to clarify the changes during the transition period relative to previous forecasts. New initiatives to be undertaken during 1998-2002 include heat recovery in new upgrader units, recycling diluent used in bitumen extraction without cooling, recovery of gas presently going to the flare system, installation of a 200,000 barrel hot water surge tank, addition of a third turbogenerator, and various projects to generate more electrical power internally. tabs., figs

  4. Observing, studying, and managing for change-Proceedings of the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, Nicolas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

    2011-01-01

    These proceedings contain the abstracts, manuscripts, and posters of presentations given at the Fourth Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds-Observing, Studying, and Managing for Change, held at the Westmark Hotel in Fairbanks, Alaska, September 26-30, 2011. The conference was jointly hosted by the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service.

  5. Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

  6. Climate effects of land use changes and anthropogenic impact on surface radiation

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The fourth assessment report on climate change (AR4) was released in 2007 and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) derive an increase of 0.74 ± 0.18°C in the 100 year global mean surface temperature linear trend between 1906 – 2005. IPCC state further that “there is very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming” (IPCC, 2007). The observed global warming has occurred during the same period as a considerable increa...

  7. Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, Nancy G.

    2012-01-01

    Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

  8. Who did write the report of the IPCC Group 3?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having briefly recalled the role of each of the groups of the IPCC, this brief document recalls the role of Group 3 (to define strategies aimed at climate change mitigation) and indicates the number of authors of different nationalities for the report published in April 2014. He analyses how these nationalities are distributed for some specific and important chapters. He outlines and denounces the low representation of France among these authors, and notices that some contents are in contradiction with the French energy policy. Somehow consequently, he also criticizes the way this report considers nuclear energy (mining risks, operational risks, civil-military relationship, nuclear waste control)

  9. Greenhouse gas emissions from managed peat soils: is the IPCC reporting guidance realistic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Drainage of peatlands leads to the decomposition of peat, resulting in substantial losses of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. The conservation and restoration of peatlands can provide a major contribution to the mitigation of climate change. Improvements to guidance and capacity for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands will be valuable in the context of the current negotiations towards a post-2012 climate agreement. This article evaluates IPCC approaches to greenhouse gas emissions from managed organic (peat soils and presents a summary table comparing IPCC default values with best estimates based on recent literature. Inconsistencies are pointed out with regard to the IPCC definitions of organic soils and climate zones. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines use a definition of organic soil that is not totally consistent with FAO definitions, use climate zones that are not fully compatible, present default CO2 values that are substantially (often an order of magnitude too low, and present a default N2O value for tropical cropland that is also an order of magnitude too low. An update of IPCC default values is desirable. The IPCC Emission Factor Database offers a platform for establishing more accurate emission factors, but so far contains little information about emissions from peat soils.

  10. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

  11. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  12. IPCC. 4. climate assessment report, 2007; GIEC. 4. rapport d'evaluation du climat, 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    The mission and challenge of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC, GIEC in French) is to evaluate, synthesize and make available the sum of scientific and economic information of the complex domain of climatic change, and in addition to make the results of these works accepted by government representatives of 192 states. This document makes a brief synthesis in three parts of the 4. assessment report of the IPCC: 1 - physical scientific bases of climatic change: characteristic of the phenomenon, greenhouse gas emissions trend, already observed effects, forecasts of climate models; 2 - impacts, adaptations and vulnerabilities of climatic change: types of future impacts, impacts per sector, regional impacts, limits of ecosystems adaptation; 3 - mitigation of climatic changes: past emissions and future trends, possible mitigation actions and cost, possible political levers for emissions abatement. A last part introduces the French researchers involved in IPCC's works. (J.S.)

  13. 2007 status of climate change: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: l'attenuation des changements climatiques. Contribution du Groupe de travail 3 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'Experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Evolution du Climat (GIEC). Resume a l'attention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barker, T.; Bashmakov, I.; Bernstein, L.; Bogner, J.; Bosch, P.; Dave, R.; Davidson, O.; Fisher, B.; Grubb, M.; Gupta, S.; Halsnaes, K.; Heij, B.; Kahn Ribeiro, S.; Kobayashi, S.; Levine, M.; Martino, D.; Masera Cerutti, O.; Metz, B.; Meyer, L.; Nabuurs, G.J.; Najam, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Holger Rogner, H.; Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Schock, R.; Shukla, P.; Sims, R.; Smith, P.; Swart, R.; Tirpak, D.; Urge-Vorsatz, D.; Dadi, Z

    2007-07-01

    The Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and the Special Reports on CO{sub 2} Capture and Storage (SRCCS) and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The main aim of this summary report is to assess options for mitigating climate change. Several aspects link climate change with development issues. This report explores these links in detail, and illustrates where climate change and sustainable development are mutually reinforcing. Economic development needs, resource endowments and mitigative and adaptive capacities differ across regions. There is no one-size-fits-all approach to the climate change problem, and solutions need to be regionally differentiated to reflect different socio-economic conditions and, to a lesser extent, geographical differences. Although this report has a global focus, an attempt is made to differentiate the assessment of scientific and technical findings for the various regions. Given that mitigation options vary significantly between economic sectors, it was decided to use the economic sectors to organize the material on short- to medium-term mitigation options. Contrary to what was done in the Third Assessment Report, all relevant aspects of sectoral mitigation options, such as technology, cost, policies etc., are discussed together, to provide the user with a comprehensive discussion of the sectoral mitigation options. The report is organised into six sections after the introduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends; - Mitigation in the short and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030); - Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030); - Policies, measures and instruments to mitigate climate change; - Sustainable development and climate change mitigation; - Gaps in

  14. Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the potential impacts of large-scale land use and land cover changes (LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. As important types of LUCC, urbanization, deforestation, cultivated land reclamation, and grassland degradation have effects on the climate, the potential changes of the surface temperature caused by these four types of large-scale LUCC from 2010 to 2050 are downscaled, and this issue analyzed worldwide along with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The first case study presents some evidence of the effects of future urbanization on surface temperature in the Northeast megalopolis of the United States of America (USA. In order to understand the potential climatological variability caused by future forest deforestation and vulnerability, we chose Brazilian Amazon region as the second case study. The third selected region in India as a typical region of cultivated land reclamation where the possible climatic impacts are explored. In the fourth case study, we simulate the surface temperature changes caused by future grassland degradation in Mongolia. Results show that the temperature in built-up area would increase obviously throughout the four land types. In addition, the effects of all four large-scale LUCC on monthly average temperature change would vary from month to month with obviously spatial heterogeneity.

  15. The emerging fourth sector

    OpenAIRE

    Friis, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    The Fourth Sector is a new phenomenon related to dual social and financial value creation, until now not clearly defined with crisp sectoral boundaries and an operationalized definition. The phenomenon is getting increased attention in media, conferences, business schools and by organizations all over the world, and this study intends to explain the macroenvironmental changes that led to the rise of the fourth sector, describe new trends of social value creation in the private ...

  16. Evaluating the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate likelihood information in IPCC reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Adam

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prescribes that the communication of risk and uncertainty information pertaining to scientific reports, model predictions etc. be communicated with a set of 7 likelihood expressions. These range from "Extremely likely" (intended to communicate a likelihood of greater than 99%) through "As likely as not" (33-66%) to "Extremely unlikely" (less than 1%). Psychological research has investigated the degree to which these expressions are interpreted as intended by the IPCC, both within and across cultures. I will present a selection of this research and demonstrate some problems associated with communicating likelihoods in this way, as well as suggesting some potential improvements.

  17. The IPCC in an age of social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hickman, Leo

    2015-04-01

    How should the IPCC communicate its findings, not just to policymakers, but to a wider audience? In today's online environment, readers demand an open and transparent interaction, but the responses must be both rapid and authoritative. As the IPCC debates its future, it must be bold in engaging with social media.

  18. Exploring the impact of the IPCC Assessment Reports on science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vasileiadou, E.; Heimeriks, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Even though critique to IPCC is certainly not new, the climate controversies of 2009 and 2010 brought this critique again to the fore in public media. The paper contributes to this ongoing debate, and investigates empirically the impact of the four Assessment Reports of the IPCC on scientific public

  19. Effects of Conceptual Change Texts and Laboratory Experiments on Fourth Grade Students' Understanding of Matter and Change Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durmus, Jale; Bayraktar, Sule

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether conceptual change texts and laboratory experiments are effective in overcoming misconceptions and whether the concepts were acquired permanently when these methods were utilized. In this study, we addressed some topics from the "Matter and Change" unit in science and technology class of…

  20. A method for evaluating climate change adaptation strategies for small-scale farmers using survey, experimental and modeled data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.M.; Stoorvogel, J.J.; Valdivia, R.O.; Thornton, P.K.; Herrero, M.

    2012-01-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in thecontext of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data d

  1. Cloud Radiative Forcing in Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by IPCC AR4 AMIP Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiandong; LIU Yimin; WU Guoxiong

    2009-01-01

    This study examines cloud radiative forcing (CRF) in the Asian monsoon region (0°-50°N,60°-150°E)simulated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) AMIP models.During boreal winter,no model realistically reproduces the larger long-wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF) over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and only a couple of models reasonably capture the larger short-wave CRF (SWCF) to the east of the TP.During boreal summer,there are larger biases for central location and intensity of simulated CRF in active convective regions.The CRF biases are closely related to the rainfall biases in the models.Quantitative analysis further indicates that the correlation between simulated CRF and observations are not high,and that the biases and diversity in SWCF are larger than that in LWCF.The annual cycle of simulated CRF over East Asia (0°-50°N,100°-145°E) is also examined.Though many models capture the basic annual cycle in tropics,strong LWCF and SWCF to the east of the TP beginning in early spring are underestimated by most models.As a whole,GFDL-CM2.1,MPI-ECHAM5,UKMO-HadGAM1,and MIROC3.2 (medres) perform well for CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region,and the multi-model ensemble (MME) has improved results over the individual simulations. It is suggested that strengthening the physical parameterizations involved over the TP,and improving cumulus convection processes and model experiment design are crucial to CRF simulation in the Asian monsoon region.

  2. Changes in Test Scores Distribution for Students of the Fourth Grade in Brazil: A Relative Distribution Analysis for the Years 1997-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Clarissa Guimaraes; Rios-Neto, Eduardo Luiz Goncalves; de Xavier Pinto, Cristine Campos

    2013-01-01

    In Brazil, the mean of math test scores for students of the fourth grade declined by approximately 0.2 standard deviation in the late 1990s. However, the potential changes in the distribution of scores have never been addressed. It is unclear if the decline was caused by deterioration in student performance levels at the upper and/or lower tails…

  3. A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Katharine J; Freeman, Patrick T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Field, Christopher B

    2016-08-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain. PMID:27532046

  4. Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

  5. Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

    2014-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

  6. Climate modelling: IPCC gazes into the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raper, Sarah

    2012-04-01

    In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will report on the next set of future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios, offering a rational alternative pathway for avoiding dangerous climate change.

  7. Global Income Distribution and Poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2010-01-01

    The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) has been widely used to analyze climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. The storylines behind these scenarios outline alternative development pathways, which have been the base for climate research and other studies at global, regional and country level. Based on the global income distribution and poverty module (GlobPov), we assess the implication of the IPCC SRES scenarios on global poverty and inequality. We find that global po...

  8. Mutations in the fourth EGF-like domain affect thrombomodulin-induced changes in the active site of thrombin

    OpenAIRE

    Koeppe, Julia R.; Beach, Muneera A.; Baerga-Ortiz, Abel; Jordan Kerns, S.; Komives, Elizabeth A.

    2008-01-01

    A number of alanine and more conservative mutants of residues in the fourth domain of thrombomodulin (TM) were prepared and assayed for protein C activation and for thrombin binding. Several of the alanine mutations appeared to cause misfolding or structural defects as assessed by poor expression and/or NMR HSQC experiments, while more conservative mutations at the same site appeared to fold correctly and retain activity. Several of the conservative mutants bound more weakly to thrombin despi...

  9. Climate in Peril. A popular guide to the latest IPCC reports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US Vice President Al Gore for their work to provide policy makers and the general public around the world with the best possible science base for understanding and combating the increasing threat from climate change. But as the messages from the scientists are becoming increasingly explicit, the gap between the need for action they project and the climate policy the world leaders put in place is steadily increasing. One illustration is the trend in emissions of greenhouse gases. According to the IPCC global emissions would need to peak between 2000 and 2015 in order to limit the global temperature increase to between 2 and 2.4 degrees C compared to pre-industrial times. In 2007, when ideally the emissions should have peaked, the world instead experienced a new record in annual emission increase. For each day we fail to twist development towards a low-carbon society, the damage to the world's ecosystems become more severe, and the costs of mitigation and adaptation increases. The main purpose of this short guide is to help bridging the gap between science and policy and to increase public awareness about the urgency of action to combat climate change and its impacts. This booklet is intended for those who do not have the time - and may not have the scientific expertise - to read the entire Synthesis Report from the IPCC. (Author)

  10. A review of uncertainty visualization within the IPCC reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nocke, Thomas; Reusser, Dominik; Wrobel, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Results derived from climate model simulations confront non-expert users with a variety of uncertainties. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be communicated such that it can be easily understood, however, the complexity of the science behind is still incorporated. With respect to the assessment reports of the IPCC, the situation is even more complicated, because heterogeneous sources and multiple types of uncertainties need to be compiled together. Within this work, we systematically (1) analyzed the visual representation of uncertainties in the IPCC AR4 and AR5 reports, and (2) executed a questionnaire to evaluate how different user groups such as decision-makers and teachers understand these uncertainty visualizations. Within the first step, we classified visual uncertainty metaphors for spatial, temporal and abstract representations. As a result, we clearly identified a high complexity of the IPCC visualizations compared to standard presentation graphics, sometimes even integrating two or more uncertainty classes / measures together with the "certain" (mean) information. Further we identified complex written uncertainty explanations within image captions even within the "summary reports for policy makers". In the second step, based on these observations, we designed a questionnaire to investigate how non-climate experts understand these visual representations of uncertainties, how visual uncertainty coding might hinder the perception of the "non-uncertain" data, and if alternatives for certain IPCC visualizations exist. Within the talk/poster, we will present first results from this questionnaire. Summarizing, we identified a clear trend towards complex images within the latest IPCC reports, with a tendency to incorporate as much as possible information into the visual representations, resulting in proprietary, non-standard graphic representations that are not necessarily easy to comprehend on one glimpse. We conclude that

  11. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  12. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  13. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  14. Run-based multi-model interannual variability assessment of precipitation and temperature over Pakistan using two IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asmat, U.; Athar, H.

    2015-09-01

    The interannual variability of precipitation and temperature is derived from all runs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth Assessment Report (AR4)-based two Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations, over Pakistan, on an annual basis. The models are the CM2.0 and CM2.1 versions of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)-based AOGCM. Simulations for a recent 22-year period (1979-2000) are validated using Climate Research Unit (CRU) and NCEP/NCAR datasets over Pakistan, for the first time. The study area of Pakistan is divided into three regions: all Pakistan, northern Pakistan, and southern Pakistan. Bias, root mean square error, one sigma standard deviation, and coefficient of variance are used as validation metrics. For all Pakistan and northern Pakistan, all three runs of GFDL-CM2.0 perform better under the above metrics, both for precipitation and temperature (except for one sigma standard deviation and coefficient of variance), whereas for southern Pakistan, third run of GFDL-CM2.1 perform better expect for the root mean square error for temperature. A mean and variance-based bias correction is applied to bias in modeled precipitation and temperature variables. This resulted in a reduced bias, except for the months of June, July, and August, when the reduction in bias is relatively lower.

  15. Federated Quality Control Procedure for CMIP5 / IPCC-AR5 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockhause, M.; Höck, H.; Kurtz, M.; Lautenschlager, M.; Toussaint, F.

    2012-04-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) aims to advance the knowledge of climate change and climate variability. The results collected within the Climate Model Intercomparison Project No. 5 (CMIP5) are intended to underlie the coming fifth assessment report (IPCC-AR5). In comparison with the CMIP3 (IPCC-AR4) three main improvements have been implemented in the data infrastructure: Decentral data storage on local data nodes of the Earth System Grid (ESG, http://pcmdi3.llnl.gov/esgcet) and replication of the most important data (relevant for IPCC-AR5) among the three primary CMIP5 archive centers, PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison), BADC (British Atmospheric Data Centre), and WDCC (World Data Center for Climate) at DKRZ. Detailed descriptions of numerical climate models and the simulations using the CIM (Common Information Model) developed by METAFOR (http://metaforclimate.eu). Data curation was improved by introducing a versioning concept and a quality assessment process providing a uniform identification of datasets as well as a persistent identifier DOI (Digital Object Identifier) for data citation in scientific publications (http://cmip5qc.wdc-climate.de). The quality control (QC) concept was developed on the background of the existing federated data infrastructure of the ESG and the external metadata source. For this reason as well as for sharing the work load of the quality checks a federated / distributed quality control procedure was developed, consisting of: a QC repository for QC result and information storage and exchange within the QC process, a QC checker tool, and a QC service package to support QC repository storage, QC result analyses, QC information access for QC managers as well as for data users. For CMIP5 the quality control procedure consists of three quality levels. With increasing quality level the checks are performed more centralized: QC level 1 Separate technical QC checks on data (CMOR2, ESG conformance

  16. South Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H; Hamilton, K; Sperber, K R

    2005-09-07

    In this paper we use the extensive integrations produced for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to examine the relationship between ENSO and the monsoon at interannual and decadal timescales. We begin with an analysis of the monsoon simulation in the 20th century integrations. Six of the 18 models were found to have a reasonably realistic representation of monsoon precipitation climatology. For each of these six models SST and anomalous precipitation evolution along the equatorial Pacific during El Nino events display considerable differences when compared to observations. Out of these six models only four (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.0, GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1, MRI, and MPI{_}ECHAM5) exhibit a robust ENSO-monsoon contemporaneous teleconnection, including the known inverse relationship between ENSO and rainfall variations over India. Lagged correlations between the all-India rainfall (AIR) index and Nino3.4 SST reveal that three models represent the timing of the teleconnection, including the spring predictability barrier which is manifested as the transition from positive to negative correlations prior to the monsoon onset. Furthermore, only one of these three models (GFDL{_}CM{_}2.1) captures the observed phase lag with the strongest anticorrelation of SST peaking 2-3 months after the summer monsoon, which is partially attributable to the intensity of simulated El Nino itself. We find that the models that best capture the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection are those that correctly simulate the timing and location of SST and diabatic heating anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and the associated changes to the equatorial Walker Circulation during El Nino events. The strength of the AIR-Nino3.4 SST correlation in the model runs waxes and wanes to some degree on decadal timescales. The overall magnitude and timescale for this decadal modulation in most of the models is similar to that seen in observations. However, there is little consistency in the phase among the realizations

  17. ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

  18. Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

  19. IPCC workshop on impacts of ocean acidification on marine biology and ecosystems. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Dahe, Q.; Mach, K.J.; Plattner, G.-K.; Mastrandrea, M.D.; Tignor, M.; Ebi, K.L.

    2011-09-15

    Understanding the effects of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations on ocean chemistry, commonly termed ocean acidification, as well as associated impacts on marine biology and ecosystems, is an important component of scientific knowledge about global change. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will include comprehensive coverage of ocean acidification and its impacts, including potential feedbacks to the climate system. To support ongoing AR5 assessment efforts, Working Group II and Working Group I (WGII and WGI) of the IPCC held a joint Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and Ecosystems in Okinawa, Japan, from 17 to 19 January 2011. The workshop convened experts from the scientific community, including WGII and WGI AR5 authors and review editors, to synthesise scientific understanding of changes in ocean chemistry due to increased CO{sub 2} and of impacts of this changing chemistry on marine organisms, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. This workshop report summarises the scientific content and perspectives presented and discussed during the workshop. It provides syntheses of these perspectives for the workshop's core topics: (i) the changing chemistry of the oceans, (ii) impacts of ocean acidification for individual organisms, and (iii) scaling up responses from individual organisms to ecosystems. It also presents summaries of workshop discussions of key cross-cutting themes, ranging from detection and attribution of ocean acidification and its impacts to understanding ocean acidification in the context of other stressors on marine systems. Additionally, the workshop report includes extended abstracts for keynote and poster presentations at the workshop. (Author)

  20. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5) in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, José; Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco; Chaves, Rosane; Silva, Emerson; Servain, Jacques; Costa, Alexandre; Sombra, Sérgio; Barbosa, Augusto; Dos Santos, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20) and future projections of the AR4 (A2) and AR5 (RCP8.5) experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5) in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn) in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  1. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5 in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Brabo Alves

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20 and future projections of the AR4 (A2 and AR5 (RCP8.5 experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5 in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  2. The fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    ""This is an invigorating book, a short but spirited slalom for the mind."" - Timothy Ferris, The New York Times Book Review ""Highly readable. One is reminded of the breadth and depth of Hofstadter's Gödel, Escher, Bach."" - Science""Anyone with even a minimal interest in mathematics and fantasy will find The Fourth Dimension informative and mind-dazzling... [Rucker] plunges into spaces above three with a zest and energy that is breathtaking."" - Martin Gardner ""Those who think the fourth dimension is nothing but time should be encouraged to read The Fourth Dimension, along with anyone else

  3. Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the IPCC on global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1999-01-01

    warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The "solar hypothesis" claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier paper we have demonstrated that for data covering...... as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of Wigley and Raper employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle...... lengths with the "corrected" temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming....

  4. A model of enteric fermentation in dairy cows to estimate methane emission for the Dutch National Inventory Report using the IPCC Tier 3 approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bannink, A.; Schijndel, van M.W.; Dijkstra, J.

    2011-01-01

    The protocol for the National Inventory of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in The Netherlands includes a dynamic and mechanistic model of animal digestion and fermentation as an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 3 approach to estimate enteric CH4 emission by dairy cows. The

  5. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strengers, B.; Leemans, R.; Eickhout, B.; Vries, de B.; Bouwman, L.

    2004-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the mo

  6. 2007 status of climate changes: synthesis report. Summary for policy-makers; Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: rapport de synthese. Resume a l'intention des decideurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This Synthesis Report is based on the assessment carried out by the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Topic 1 summarises observed changes in climate and their effects on natural and human systems, regardless of their causes, while topic 2 assesses the causes of the observed changes. Topic 3 presents projections of future climate change and related impacts under different scenarios. Topic 4 discusses adaptation and mitigation options over the next few decades and their interactions with sustainable development. Topic 5 assesses the relationship between adaptation and mitigation on a more conceptual basis and takes a longer-term perspective. Topic 6 summarises the major robust findings and remaining key uncertainties in this assessment.

  7. Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

  8. Floods in Mekong Delta Under Sea-Level Rise Projections By IPCC AR5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, H.

    2014-12-01

    One of the mightiest rivers in the planet, the Mekong ranks 10th amongst the world's great rivers on the basis of mean annual flow at the mouth. It flows southwards over a distance of approximately 4,800 km from its source to the sea, through six different countries: China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. This great basin has been considered to be one of the most sensitive areas in the world to climate change. The present paper investigates fluvial flood hazards in urban areas in the Mekong Delta to inundation due to seasonal flooding, a phenomenon which is likely to be exacerbated by future sea-level rise. Unlike past researches which mainly focus on flooding due to river discharge from upstream or heavy precipitation, the present paper scrutinizes the influence of ocean tides. The research reveals that ocean tides predominantly determine water elevation even in an upstream location such as Can Tho City, 80 km inland from the river mouth, and that the river flow causes tidal damping and effectively reduces the energy of the incoming tides. This tidal damping is especially pronounced during the rainy season. Analysis based on the water levels monitored by the Mekong River Commission reveals that the ground near the riverbank of Can Tho had experienced inundation for a total of 215 hours between July 2009 and June 2010 (2.5% of the time over a one year period). It is also shown that inundation reached up to a maximum height of 47 cm above the roads of Can Tho downtown in this one-year period. Assuming two scenarios of sea-level rise of 25 cm in the middle of the 21st century and 60 cm in the end of the century, all based on the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) projections, it was found that the duration of inundation will be prolonged from the present percentage of 2.5% to 7.5% and 24% of the year, respectively. It is important to note that while at present this flooding is seasonal and limited, in the

  9. River discharge and flood inundation over the Amazon based on IPCC AR5 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Rodrigo; Sorribas, Mino; Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila; Melack, John; Bravo, Juan Martin; Beighley, Edward

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and related effects over the hydrologic regime of the Amazon River basin could have major impacts over human and ecological communities, including issues with transportation, flood vulnerability, fisheries and hydropower generation. We examined future changes in discharge and floodplain inundation within the Amazon River basin. We used the hydrological model MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas) coupled with a 1D river hydrodynamic model simulating water storage over the floodplains. The model was forced using satellite based precipitation from the TRMM 3B42 dataset, and it had a good performance when validated against discharge and stage measurements as well as remotely sensed data, including radar altimetry-based water levels, gravity anomaly-based terrestrial water storage and flood inundation extent. Future scenarios of precipitation and other relevant climatic variables for the 2070 to 2100 time period were taken from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The climate models were chosen based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. A quantile-quantile bias removal procedure was applied to climate model precipitation to mitigate unreliable predictions. The hydrologic model was then forced using past observed climate data altered by delta change factors based on the past and future climate models aiming to estimate projected discharge and floodplain inundation in climate change scenario at several control points in the basin. The climate projections present large uncertainty, especially the precipitation rate, and predictions using different climate models do not agree on the sign of changes on total Amazon flood extent or discharge along the main stem of the Amazon River. However, analyses of results at different regions indicate an increase

  10. Fourth-rank cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some cosmological implications of the recently proposed fourth-rank theory of gravitation are studied. The model exhibits the possibility of being free from the horizon and flatness problems at the price of introducing a negative pressure. The field equations we obtain are compatible with kobs=0 and Ωobstclas approx. 1020tPlanck approx. 10-23s. When interpreted at the light of General Relativity the treatment is shown to be almost equivalent to that of the standard model of cosmology combined with the inflationary scenario. Hence, an interpretation of the negative pressure hypothesis is provided. (author). 8 refs

  11. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Neumeyer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Energy Return on Investment (EROI is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform an EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.

  12. A Coupled Model Study on the Intensification of the Asian Summer Monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered.Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations (1860-1990) and projected into the future (1990-2100) according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, Nakicenovic et al., 2000) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations.

  13. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  14. Searching for the fourth family quarks through anomalous decays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The flavor democracy hypothesis predicts the existence of the fourth standard model family. Because of the high masses of the fourth family quarks, their anomalous decays could be dominant if certain criteria are met. This will drastically change the search strategy at hadron colliders. We show that the fourth standard model family down quarks with masses up to 400-450 GeV can be observed (or excluded) via anomalous decays by Tevatron.

  15. Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

  16. Drawing Boundaries: Boundary Arrangements of the IPCC Working Groups

    OpenAIRE

    van Eck, Christel

    2016-01-01

    The present research investigates how the IPCC’s Working Groups safeguard their scientific character while communicating with policymakers. Due to the different nature of Working Groups’ assessments, all Working Groups make different boundary arrangements of how science is defined; what is considered as relevant knowledge; and what the division of labor is amongst Working Groups. The results show that science is a context-specific activity in a constantly changing landscape, which in turn aff...

  17. Time Series of Aerosol Column Optical Depth at the Barrow, Alaska, ARM Climate Research Facility for 2008 Fourth Quarter 2009 ARM and Climate Change Prediction Program Metric Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    C Flynn; AS Koontz; JH Mather

    2009-09-01

    The uncertainties in current estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are dominated by the effects of aerosols, both in relation to the direct absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols and also with respect to aerosol-related changes in cloud formation, longevity, and microphysics (See Figure 1; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Assessment Report 4, 2008). Moreover, the Arctic region in particular is especially sensitive to changes in climate with the magnitude of temperature changes (both observed and predicted) being several times larger than global averages (Kaufman et al. 2009). Recent studies confirm that aerosol-cloud interactions in the arctic generate climatologically significant radiative effects equivalent in magnitude to that of green house gases (Lubin and Vogelmann 2006, 2007). The aerosol optical depth is the most immediate representation of the aerosol direct effect and is also important for consideration of aerosol-cloud interactions, and thus this quantity is essential for studies of aerosol radiative forcing.

  18. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  19. Fourth Light at Paranal!

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-01

    VLT YEPUN Joins ANTU, KUEYEN and MELIPAL It was a historical moment last night (September 3 - 4, 2000) in the VLT Control Room at the Paranal Observatory , after nearly 15 years of hard work. Finally, four teams of astronomers and engineers were sitting at the terminals - and each team with access to an 8.2-m telescope! From now on, the powerful "Paranal Quartet" will be observing night after night, with a combined mirror surface of more than 210 m 2. And beginning next year, some of them will be linked to form part of the unique VLT Interferometer with unparalleled sensitivity and image sharpness. YEPUN "First Light" Early in the evening, the fourth 8.2-m Unit Telescope, YEPUN , was pointed to the sky for the first time and successfully achieved "First Light". Following a few technical exposures, a series of "first light" photos was made of several astronomical objects with the VLT Test Camera. This instrument was also used for the three previous "First Light" events for ANTU ( May 1998 ), KUEYEN ( March 1999 ) and MELIPAL ( January 2000 ). These images served to evaluate provisionally the performance of the new telescope, mainly in terms of mechanical and optical quality. The ESO staff were very pleased with the results and pronounced YEPUN fit for the subsequent commissioning phase. When the name YEPUN was first given to the fourth VLT Unit Telescope, it was supposed to mean "Sirius" in the Mapuche language. However, doubts have since arisen about this translation and a detailed investigation now indicates that the correct meaning is "Venus" (as the Evening Star). For a detailed explanation, please consult the essay On the Meaning of "YEPUN" , now available at the ESO website. The first images At 21:39 hrs local time (01:39 UT), YEPUN was turned to point in the direction of a dense Milky Way field, near the border between the constellations Sagitta (The Arrow) and Aquila (The Eagle). A guide star was acquired and the active optics system quickly optimized the

  20. Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

    2014-05-01

    As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

  1. On a fourth order superlinear elliptic problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ramos

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We prove the existence of a nonzero solution for the fourth order elliptic equation $$Delta^2u= mu u +a(xg(u$$ with boundary conditions $u=Delta u=0$. Here, $mu$ is a real parameter, $g$ is superlinear both at zero and infinity and $a(x$ changes sign in $Omega$. The proof uses a variational argument based on the argument by Bahri-Lions cite{BL}.

  2. The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2011-06-01

    Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

  3. “管理极端气候事件和灾害风险特别报告”对我国的启示%The Implications on China' s Disaster Prevention and Mitigation from IPCC Special Report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation"

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘冰; 薛澜

    2012-01-01

    政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最新发布的"管理极端气候事件和灾害风险促进气候变化适应特别报告决策者摘要(SREX)"从"极端气候事件+脆弱性+暴露程度"的角度剖析了灾害风险的根源,综合考虑了气候、环境、社会经济条件等因素,提出了管理灾害风险和适应气候变化的各种政策选项,对于我国把风险管理纳入应对气候变化行动的整体框架提供了重要的科学依据。本文基于特别报告的主要结论,结合我国防灾减灾工作的实际情况,提出加快社会经济发展、实现社会系统重构、发挥政策协同效应是今后防灾减灾工作的重要着力点。%The newly issued Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) analyzes the root of disaster risks from three perspectives of "extreme climate events, vulnerability and exposure". It considers factors such as climatic, environmental and socio - economic conditions, and puts forward various policy options for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. This report provides scientific evidence for integrating risk management into the action framework of addressing climate change in China. This article provides a synthesis of the main conclusions of the report. Based on the actual situation of China' s disaster prevention and reduction efforts, the article makes several policy recommendations, including 1 ) speeding up socio - economic development, 2) promoting social and institutional innovation and transformation, and 3 ) developing policy synergy across different policy arenas related to disaster prevention and reduction.

  4. Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

    2012-09-01

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that

  5. The handshake between the integrated assessment and climate modeling communities: IPCC AR5 as a catalyst for improved networking, collaboration and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Meehl, G.; Edmonds, J.; Nakićenović, N.; Lamarque, J.; Rose, S.; van Vuuren, D.; Moss, R.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2009-12-01

    In the wake of AR4, it was clear that there needed to be a much more proactive modeling strategy for the climate modeling community. In 2006 a series of conversations were initiated within the global environmental change communities about how to approach a modeling strategy for the next IPCC assessment (AR5). At that time, the idea of developing both a near- and long- term experimental design that addressed questions around carbon cycle diagnostics, Earth system predictability as well as inertia of the climate system were introduced. From these discussions, a joint meeting was held in Aspen, Colorado (Aspen Global Change Institute) that included both the climate and integrated assessment modeling communities as well as representatives from the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) research groups. Many activities have been spawned from this initial set of conversations, including the development, for the first time ever, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) which are a set of four radiative forcing pathways, of which three include, for the first time ever in IPCC history, mitigation for stabilization of greenhouse gasses and radiative forcings (mitigation scenarios include two stabilization and one overshoot and decline), a land use/land cover and emissions harmonization between integrated assessment and climate modeling communities as well as the near-term prediction experiment designed to address model skill in predictability, downscaling, extreme events, air quality, etc.. The consensus development of the RCPs provided an initial motivation for closer collaboration between the ESM, IAM and IAV communities towards the development of New Scenarios that were driven by the scientific communities and not the IPCC. These collaborations are leading to greater mutual understanding of modeling paradigms and strengthening ties with integrated assessment, climate and emissions inventory and modeling communities.

  6. Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

    2016-01-01

    Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for

  7. Calculation of Co2 emissions from the italian energy system; Calcolo delle emissioni di CO2 dal settore energetico italiano. 1990-2000. Metodo di riferimento IPCC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, M. [Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell' Ambiente, Rome (Italy); La Motta, S. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The calculation of Co2 emissions from the Italian energy system is the object of this work. The inventory method used is the Reference Approach from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories) and the energy consumption data are taken from the Italian Energy Balance edited by the Ministry of Industry. The years analysed are those from 1990 to 2000. [Italian] Lo scopo di questo lavoro e' quello di contabilizzare le emissioni di CO2 provenienti dal settore energetico per fonte di utilizzo dell'energia, a partire direttamente dal Bilancio Energetico Nazionale (Bilancio Energetico Nazionale, BEN, a cura del Ministero Industria, Commercio ed Artigianato) ed applicando all'Italia la metodologia di riferimento per il calcolo delle emissioni della CO2 elaborata dall'Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 1996 revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories). Gli anni presi in considerazione in queto lavoro sono quelli dal 1990 al 2000.

  8. Dominant frames in legacy and social media coverage of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Saffron; Williams, Hywel T. P.; Kurz, Tim; Wiersma, Bouke; Boykoff, Maxwell

    2015-04-01

    The media are powerful agents that translate information across the science-policy interface, framing it for audiences. Yet frames are never neutral: they define an issue, identify causes, make moral judgements and shape proposed solutions. Here, we show how the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was framed in UK and US broadcast and print coverage, and on Twitter. Coverage of IPCC Working Group I (WGI) was contested and politicized, employing the `Settled Science, Uncertain Science, Political or Ideological Struggle and Role of Science’ frames. WGII coverage commonly used Disaster or Security. More diverse frames were employed for WGII and WGIII, including Economics and Morality and Ethics. Framing also varied by media institution: for example, the BBC used Uncertain Science, whereas Channel 4 did not. Coverage varied by working group, with WGIII gaining far less coverage than WGI or WGII. We suggest that media coverage and framing of AR5 was influenced by its sequential three-part structure and by the availability of accessible narratives and visuals. We recommend that these communication lessons be applied to future climate science reports.

  9. Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

  10. THE FOURTH STATE OF WATER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Savich

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The fourth state of water is aqueous vapor which, under power action of magnetic-field strength at Curie point at the moment of magnetic phase transition, acquires properties of ferroelectric plasma. The latter is the basis of origination of such natural phenomena as a thunderstorm cloud and a ball lightning capable of releasing, under certain conditions, lightning strokes and, during explosion, plenty of thermal energy, which is typical of a low-temperature reactor.

  11. The Fourth Way in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vesa Iitti

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the general history of the Fourth Way in Finland. The Fourth Way, or simply ‘the Work’, began as a Greco-Armenian man named Georges Ivanovich Gurdjieff (1866?–1949 gathered groups of pupils in St Petersburg and Moscow in 1912. To these groups, Gurdjieff started to teach what he had learned and synthesized between ca 1896 and 1912 during his travels on spiritual search of Egypt, Crete, Sumeria, Assyria, the Holy Land, Mecca, Ethiopia, Sudan, India, Afghanistan, the northern valleys of Siberia, and Tibet. Neither Gurdjieff nor any of his disciples called themselves a church, a sect, or anything alike, but referred to themselves simply as ‘the Work’, or as ‘the Fourth Way’. The name ‘the Fourth Way’ originates in a Gurdjieffian view that there are essentially three traditional ways of spiritual work: those of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi. These ways do not literally refer to the activities of a monk, a fakir, and a yogi, but to similar types of spiritual work emphasizing exercise of emotion, body, or mind. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. Gurdjieff’s teaching is a blend of various influences that include Suf­ism, orthodox Christianity, Buddhism, Kabbalah, and general elem­ents of various occult teachings of both the East and the West. It is a unique combination of cosmology, psychology, theory of evolution, and overall theory and practise aiming to help individ­uals in their efforts towards what is called ‘self-remembering’.

  12. The fourth generation in supergravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enqvist, K.; Nanopoulos, D. V.; Zwirner, F.

    1985-12-01

    We consider model-independent constraints on the fourth-generation fermion masses and the magnitude of the D-term contribution to the scalar masses. We find that the ratio of vacuum expectation values is limited to the range 1/5 ~ 150 GeV. A general feature of the four-generation models is thus a heavy spectrum of sparticles. On leave from International School for Advanced Studies, Trieste, and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Padua, Italy.

  13. The Fourth Microlensing Planet Revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Yock, Philip

    2015-01-01

    The fourth microlensing planet, otherwise known as OGLE-2005-BLG-169Lb, was discovered by a collaboration of US, NZ, Polish and UK astronomers in 2005-2006. Recently the results were confirmed by the Hubble Space Telescope and by the Keck Observatory. OGLE-2005-BLG-169Lb is the first microlensing planet to receive such confirmation. Its discovery and confirmation are described here in an historical context.

  14. The Copyright Book: A Practical Guide. Fourth Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, William S.

    In response to important changes in copyright law as the United States accommodates itself to the Berne Convention and develops means to take account of new technologies, this guide puts these changes in a form and context that will make sense to persons who are concerned about their rights under the law. New material in the fourth edition of this…

  15. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  16. Search for the fourth standard model family

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the standard model (SM) and the actual mass spectrum of the third family fermions. We discuss possible manifestations of the fourth SM family at existing and future colliders. The LHC and Tevatron potentials to discover the fourth SM family have been compared. The scenario with dominance of the anomalous decay modes of the fourth-family quarks has been considered in detail.

  17. The Super-Fast Chemistry Mechanism for IPCC AR5 Simulations with CCSM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Prather, M. J.; Lamarque, J.; Hess, P. G.; Connell, P. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Vitt, F. M.

    2009-12-01

    When atmospheric chemistry is included in long climate and Earth system simulations, the completeness of the chemical mechanism must be balanced with the computational cost, and the scientific interests of the atmospheric chemist must be tempered by the chemical needs of other components of the climate model (e.g, greenhouse gas concentrations for radiative heating, and deposition rates for biosphere interactions). We have implemented a super-fast chemical mechanism for use in IPCC AR5 simulations with the CCSM climate model. The mechanism uses just 17 species to calculate ozone, OH, and sulfate, with the OH providing the means to back-out the lifetime of methane and other species of interest. The recent addition of isoprene offers significant improvements to the sensitivity of the super-fast mechanism to emission perturbations when compared to our state-of-the-art full chemistry mechanism that uses 90 species. An analysis of the impact of different tropopause definitions will also be presented.

  18. Geoethics disgraced by Copernicus in its desperate act of covering up for the IPCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mörner, Nils-Axel

    2014-05-01

    All my life I have put observational facts in the centre. This is what Leonardo da Vinci called "to read the book of mother Earth". For a geologist this is very natural because this is the core of the geological profession. The IPCC, on the other hand, put all credits on models and scenarios. One of its founders and its first president, Bert Bolin, at a debate in the Geophysical Society of Sweden in 2001, admitted (quotation): "you can order whatever scenario you wish". With this as a background, we can put a recent action by Copernicus at a test with respect to geoethics and normal decency. The idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts". The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system. This may be held as a benchmark event in our understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. Furthermore, they noted two implications of this: partly that the old hypothesis was now lifted to a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm, and partly that we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC". "We were alarmed by the second implication", Martin Rasmussen, VD of Copernicus, stated, and took the unbelievable decision immediately to close down the entire journal. This happened on January 17 without any discussion

  19. The fourth dimension simply explained

    CERN Document Server

    Manning, Henry P

    2005-01-01

    To remove the contents of an egg without puncturing its shell or to drink the liquor in a bottle without removing the cork is clearly unthinkable - or is it? Understanding the world of Einstein and curved space requires a logical conception of the fourth dimension.This readable, informative volume provides an excellent introduction to that world, with 22 essays that employ a minimum of mathematics. Originally written for a contest sponsored by Scientific American, these essays are so well reasoned and lucidly written that they were judged to merit publication in book form. Their easily unders

  20. Stratospheric Temperature Changes and Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yongyun; XIA Yan; GAO Mei; LU Daren

    2009-01-01

    Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models (GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3) used in the IPCC (Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.

  1. Simulation evaluation and future prediction of the IPCC-AR4 GCMs on the extreme temperatures in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Ji; JIANG Zhihong; SONG Jie; LOU Dejun

    2008-01-01

    On the basis of the temperature observations during 1961-2000 in China, seven coupled general circulation models' (GCMs) extreme temperature products are evaluated supplied by the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change's 4th Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). The extreme temperature indices in use are frost days (FD), growing season length (GSL), extreme tempera-ture range (ETR), warm nights (TN90), and heat wave duration index (HWDI). Results indicate that all the seven models are capable of simulating spatial and temporal variations in temperature characteristics, and their ensemble acts more reliable than any single one. Among the seven models, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2 performances are much better. Besides, most of the mod-els are able to present linear trends of the same positive/negative signs as the observations but for weaker intensities. The simula-tion effects are different on a nationwide basis, with 110°N as the division, east (west) of which the effects are better (worse) and the poorer over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China. The predictions for the 21st century on emissions scenarios show that except decreases in the FD and ETR, other indices display significant increasing trend, especially for the indices of HWDI and TN90, which represent the notable extreme climate. This indicates that the temperature-related climate is moving towards the ex-treme. In the late 21st century, the GSL and TN90 (HWDI) increase most notably in southwest China (the Qinghai--Tibetan Plateau), and the FD decrease most remarkably in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, northwest and northeast of China. Apart from South China, the yearly change range of the extreme temperature is reduced in most of China.

  2. Contribution of the working group 2 to the fourth evaluation report of the inter government expert group on the climatic change. Evaluation 2007 of the climatic changes: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Contribution du Groupe de travail 2 au quatrieme rapport d'evaluation du Groupe d'expert intergouvernemental sur l'evolution du climat. Bilan 2007 des changements climatiques: impacts, adaptation et vulnerabilite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    This document exposes the results of the fourth evaluation report of the working group II of the inter government experts group on the climatic change. This evaluation presents the today scientific understanding of the climatic change impacts on the humans and their adaptation ability and vulnerability. It is based on the GIEC evaluations and new knowledge added since the third evaluation report. (A.L.B.)

  3. Future climate in world regions: an intercomparison of model-based projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruosteenoja, K.; Carter, T.R.; Jylhae, K.; Tuomenvirta, H.

    2003-07-01

    Projections of changes in seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation for three 30-year periods during the 21st century in 32 sub-continental scale regions are presented. This information may offer useful guidance on the selection of climate scenarios for regional impact studies. The climate changes have been simulated by seven coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), the greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing being inferred from the SRES emission scenarios A1F1, A2, B1 and B2. For a majority of the AOGCMs, simulations have only been conducted for scenarios A2 and B2. Projections for other scenarios were then extrapolated from the available runs applying a pattern-scaling technique. In tests, this method proved to be fairly accurate, the correlation between the AOGCM-simulated and the corresponding pattern-scaled response to the A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century being generally {approx} 0.97 - 0.99 for temperature and {approx} 0.9 or higher for precipitation. Projected changes of temperature and precipitation are presented in the form of 384 scatter diagrams. The model-simulated temperature changes were almost invariably statistically significant, i.e., they fell clearly outside the natural multi-decadal variability derived from 1000-year unforced coupled AOGCM simulations. For precipitation, fewer modelled changes were statistically significant, especially in the earliest projection period 2010-2039. Differences in the projections given by various models were substantial, of the same order of magnitude by the end of the century as differences among the responses to separate forcing scenarios. Nevertheless, the surface air temperature increased in all regions and seasons. For precipitation, changes with both sign occurred, but an increase of regional precipitation was more common than a decrease. All models simulate higher precipitation at high latitudes and enhanced summer monsoon precipitation for Southern and Eastern Asia. There

  4. Simulations of the 100-hPa South Asian High and Precipitation over East Asia with IPCC Coupled GCMs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Ningfang; YU Yongqiang; QIAN Yongfu

    2006-01-01

    The South Asian High (SAH) and precipitation over East Asia simulated by 11 coupled GCMs associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report are evaluated. The seasonal behavior of the SAH is presented for each model. Analyses of the results show that all models are able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the SAH. Locations of the SAH center are also basically reproduced by these models. All models underestimate the intensity and the extension of coverage in summer. The anomalous SAH can be divided into east and west modes according to its longitu dinal position in summer on the interannual timescale, and the composite anomalies of the observed precipitation for these two modes tend to have opposite signs over East Asia. However, only several coupled GCMs can simulate the relationship between rainfall and SAH similar to the observed one, which may be associated with the bias in simulation of the subtropical anticyclone over the West Pacific (SAWP) at 500 hPa. In fact, it is found that any coupled GCM, that can reproduce the reasonable summer mean state of SAWP and the southward (northward) withdrawal (extension) for the east (west) mode of SAH as compared to the observed, will also simulate similar rainfall anomaly patterns for the east and west SAH modes over East Asia. Further analysis indicates that the observed variations in the SAH, SAWP and rainfall are closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial tropical Pacific. Particularly, some models cannot simulate the SAWP extending northward in the west mode and withdrawing southward in the east mode, which may be related to weak major El Ni(n)o or La Ni(n)a events.The abilities of the coupled GCMs to simulate the SAWP and ENSO events are associated partly with their ability to reproduce the observed relationship between SAH and the rainfall anomaly over East Asia.

  5. Methane production as a result from rumen fermentation in cattle calculated by using the IPCC-GPG tier 2 method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smink W; Pellikaan WF; Kolk LJ van der; Hoek KW van der; LVM

    2005-01-01

    Following the IPCC GPG Guidelines the enteric fermentation emission is calculated as a percentage of the gross energy intake in cattle feedstuffs. The energy consumption for maintenance, activity, growth, lactation and pregnancy is described in detail. Combining this with the average rations for cat

  6. A Search for the Fourth SM Family Quarks through Anomalous Decays

    CERN Document Server

    Sahin, M; Turkoz, S

    2010-01-01

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the Standard Model. Because of the high masses of the fourth family quarks, their anomalous decays could be dominant. This will drastically change the search strategy at hadron colliders. We show that the fourth SM family down quarks with masses up to 400-450 GeV can be observed (or excluded) via anomalous decays by Tevatron before the LHC.

  7. Gravitational lensing in fourth order gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Capozziello, S; Troisi, A

    2006-01-01

    Gravitational lensing is investigated in the weak field limit of fourth order gravity in which the Lagrangian of the gravitational field is modified by replacing the Ricci scalar curvature R with an analytical expression $f(R)$. Considering the case of a pointlike lens, we study the behaviour of the deflection angle in the case of power law Lagrangians, i.e. with f(R) = f_0 R^n. In order to investigate possible detectable signatures, the position of the Einstein ring and the solutions of the lens equation are evaluated considering the change with respect to the standard case. Effects on the amplification of the images and the Paczynski curve in microlensing experiments are also estimated.

  8. The Health Effects of Climate Change in the WHO European Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Wolf

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The evidence of observed health effects as well as projections of future health risks from climate variability and climate change is growing. This article summarizes new knowledge on these health risks generated since the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 was published in 2007, with a specific focus on the 53 countries comprising the WHO European Region. Many studies on the effects of weather, climate variability, and climate change on health in the European Region have been published since 2007, increasing the level of certainty with regard to already known health threats. Exposures to temperature extremes, floods, storms, and wildfires have effects on cardiovascular and respiratory health. Climate- and weather-related health risks from worsening food and water safety and security, poor air quality, and ultraviolet radiation exposure as well as increasing allergic diseases, vector- and rodent-borne diseases, and other climate-sensitive health outcomes also warrant attention and policy action to protect human health.

  9. PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

    2008-06-01

    Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately

  10. Energetics of IPCC4AR Climate Models: Energy Balance and Meridional Enthalpy Transports

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-01-01

    We consider the climate simulations performed using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios and analyse the outputs of the state-of-the-art models included in IPCC4AR. For control simulations, large energy biases are present for several models both when global climate budgets and when energy budgets of the atmospheric, oceanic, and land subdomains are considered. The energy biases depend on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components of the climate system and on issues in the treatment of phase transitions and heat fluxes over land. Additionally, the consequence of a positive global energy bias, which is what most models feature, is the underestimation of the thermodynamic emission temperature of the planet and of the globally averaged surface temperature. This may help explaining the cold bias of climate models. Models agree on the representation of meridional enthalpy transports in terms of location of the peaks of the total and atmospheric transports, whereas quantitative disagreements o...

  11. Towards developing IPCC methane ‘emission factors’ for peatlands (organic soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Couwenberg

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available (1 Huge reductions of carbon dioxide (CO2 and nitrous oxide (N2O effluxes can be attained by rewetting drained peatlands, but this will increase methane (CH4 effluxes.(2 The scientific data base for methane effluxes from peatlands is much larger than that for CO2 or N2O. Once anoxic conditions are provided, the availability of fresh plant material is the major factor in methane production. Old (recalcitrant peat plays only a subordinate role in gas efflux.(3 The annual mean water level is a surprisingly good indicator for methane effluxes, but at high water levels the cover of aerenchymous shunts (gas conductive plant tissue becomes a better proxy. Ideally, both water level and cover of aerenchymous shunts should be assessed to arrive at robust estimates of methane effluxes.(4 The available data provide sufficient guidance for arriving at moderately accurate (Tier 1 estimates consistent with IPCC methodologies. For more accurate estimation (higher tier approaches, vegetation provides a promising basis for development of more detailed efflux factors. Vegetation is a good proxy for mean water levels and can provide - with extra attention to aerenchymous shunts - a robust proxy for accurate and spatially explicit estimates of methane effluxes over large areas.

  12. Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planton, S.

    2009-09-01

    The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

  13. Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

    2015-12-01

    China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China.

  14. Fourth international radiopharmaceutical dosimetry symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The focus of the Fourth International Radiopharmaceutical Dosimetry Symposium was to explore the impact of current developments in nuclear medicine on absorbed dose calculations. This book contains the proceedings of the meeting including the edited discussion that followed the presentations. Topics that were addressed included the dosimetry associated with radiolabeled monoclonal antibodies and blood elements, ultrashort-lived radionuclides, and positron emitters. Some specific areas of discussion were variations in absorbed dose as a result of alterations in the kinetics, the influence of radioactive contaminants on dose, dose in children and in the fetus, available instrumentation and techniques for collecting the kinetic data needed for dose calculation, dosimetry requirements for the review and approval of new radiopharmaceuticals, and a comparison of the effect on the thyroid of internal versus external irradiation. New models for the urinary blader, skeleton including the active marrow, and the blood were presented. Several papers dealt with the validity of traditional ''average-organ'' dose estimates to express the dose from particulate radiation that has a short range in tissue. These problems are particularly important in the use of monoclonal antibodies and agents used to measure intracellular functions. These proceedings have been published to provide a resource volume for anyone interested in the calculation of absorbed radiation dose

  15. Fourth order spatial derivative gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bemfica, F. S.; Gomes, M.

    2011-10-01

    In this work, we study a modified theory of gravity that contains up to fourth order spatial derivatives as a model for the Hořava-Lifshitz gravity. The propagator is evaluated and, as a result, one extra pole is obtained, corresponding to a spin-2 nonrelativistic massless particle, an extra term which jeopardizes renormalizability, besides the unexpected general relativity unmodified propagator. Then unitarity is proved at the tree level, where the general relativity pole has been shown to have no dynamics, remaining only the 2 degrees of freedom of the new pole. Next, the nonrelativistic effective potential is determined from a scattering process of two identical massive gravitationally interacting bosons. In this limit, Newton’s potential is obtained, together with a Darwin-like term that comes from the extra nonpole term in the propagator. Regarding renormalizability, this extra term may be harmful by power counting, but it can be eliminated by adjusting the free parameters of the model. This adjustment is in accord with the detailed balance condition suggested in the literature and shows that the way in which extra spatial derivative terms are added is of fundamental importance.

  16. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  17. Methane production as a result from rumen fermentation in cattle calculated by using the IPCC-GPG tier 2 method; Methaanproductie als gevolg van pensfermentatie bij rundvee berekend middels de IPCC-GPG Tier 2 methode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smink, W.; Pellikaan, W.F.; Van der Kolk, L.J. [Feed Innovation Services, Aarle-Rixtel (Netherlands); Van der Hoek, K.W. [Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2004-07-01

    Following the IPCC GPG Guidelines the enteric fermentation emission is calculated as a percentage of the gross energy intake in cattle feedstuffs. The energy consumption for maintenance, activity, growth, lactation and pregnancy is described in detail. Combining this with the average rations for cattle the methane emissions are calculated. The report presents for the period 1990-2002 for all cattle categories the methane emission resulting from enteric fermentation. [Dutch] Volgens de IPCC-GPG methode wordt de methaanemissie berekend als percentage van de door het dier opgenomen bruto energie met het voer. Het rapport beschrijft in detail de benodigde energie voor onderhoud, activiteit, groei, lactatie en dracht. Met behulp van de rantsoenen van het Nederlandse rundvee wordt vervolgens de bruto energie opname berekend. Het rapport presenteert voor de volledige periode 1990-2002 voor alle rundveecategorieen de methaanemissie als gevolg van pensfermentatie.

  18. Systems Prototyping with Fourth Generation Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sholtys, Phyllis

    1983-01-01

    The development of information systems using an engineering approach that uses both traditional programing techniques and fourth generation software tools is described. Fourth generation applications tools are used to quickly develop a prototype system that is revised as the user clarifies requirements. (MLW)

  19. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  20. Future projection of East China Sea temperature by dynamic downscaling of the IPCC_AR4 CCSM3 model result

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Xiaolin; WANGF Fan; TANG Xiaohui

    2012-01-01

    Future temperature distributions of the marginal Chinese seas are studied by dynamic downscaling of global CCSM3 IPCC_AR4 scenario runs.Different forcing fields from 2080-2099 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES)B1,A1,and A2 to 1980-1999 20C3M are averaged and superimposed on CORE2 and SODA2.2.4 data to force high-resolution regional future simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).Volume transport increments in downscaling simulation support the CCSM3result that with a weakening subtropical gyre circulation,the Kuroshio Current in the East China Sea(ECS)is possibly strengthened under the global wanning scheme.This mostly relates to local wind change,whereby the summer monsoon is strengthened and winter monsoon weakened.Future temperature fluxes and their seasonal variations are larger than in the CCSM3 result.Downscaling 100 years' temperature increments are comparable to the CCSM3,with a minimum in B1 scenario of 1.2-2.0℃ and a maximum in A2 scenario of 2.5-4.5℃.More detailed temperature distributions are shown in the downscaling simulation.Larger increments are in the Bohai Sea and middle Yellow Sea,and smaller increments near the southeast coast of China,west coast of Korea,and southern ECS.There is a reduction of advective heat north of Taiwan Island and west of Tsushima in summer,and along the southern part of the Yellow Sea warm current in winter.There is enhancement of advective heat in the northern Yellow Sea in winter,related to the delicate temperature increment distribution.At 50 meter depth,the Yellow Sea cold water mass is destroyed.Our simulations suggest that in the formation season of the cold water mass,regional temperature is higher in the future and the water remains at the bottom until next summer.In summer,the mixed layer is deeper,making it much easier for the strengthened surface heat flux to penetrate to the bottom of this water.

  1. Economic and policy issues in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global climate change has emerged as one of today's most challenging and controversial policy issues. In this significant new contribution, a roster of premier scholars examines economic and social aspects of that far-reaching phenomenon. Although the 1997 summit in Kyoto focused world attention on climate, it was just one step in an ongoing process. Research by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been ongoing since 1988. An extensive IPCC Working Group report published in 1995 examined the economic and social aspects of climate change. In this new volume, eminent economists assess that IPCC report and address the questions that emerge. William Nordhaus's introduction establishes the context for this book. It provides basic scientific background, reviews the IPCC's activities, and explains the genesis of the project

  2. Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-05-01

    We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all CMIP3 available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed astronomical empirical climate model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that, in previous works (Scafetta, 2010b, 2011b), have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, which is mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 10-10.5, 20-21, 60-62 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are synchronous to solar and heliospheric planetary oscillations. We show that the IPCC GCM's claim that all warming observed from 1970 to 2000 has been anthropogenically induced is erroneous because of the GCM failure in reconstructing the quasi 20-year and 60-year climatic cycles. Finally, we show how the presence of these large natural cycles can be used to correct the IPCC projected anthropogenic warming trend for the 21st century. By combining this corrected trend with the natural cycles, we show that the temperature may not significantly increase during the next 30 years mostly because of the negative phase of the 60-year cycle. If multisecular natural cycles (which according to some authors have significantly contributed to the observed 1700-2010 warming and may contribute to an

  3. Fourth-order mutual coherence function in oceanic turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baykal, Yahya

    2016-04-10

    We have recently expressed the structure constant of atmospheric turbulence in terms of the oceanic turbulence parameters, which are the ratio of temperature to salinity contributions to the refractive index spectrum, rate of dissipation of kinetic energy per unit mass of fluid, rate of dissipation of the mean-squared temperature, wavelength, Kolmogorov microscale, and link length. In this paper, utilizing this recently found structure constant and the fourth-order mutual coherence function of atmospheric turbulence, we present the fourth-order mutual coherence function to be used in oceanic turbulence evaluations. Thus, the found fourth-order mutual coherence function of oceanic turbulence is evaluated for the special case of a point source located at the transmitter origin and at a single receiver point. The variations of this special case of the fourth-order mutual coherence function of oceanic turbulence against the changes in the ratio of temperature to salinity contributions to the refractive index spectrum, the rate of dissipation of kinetic energy per unit mass of fluid, the rate of dissipation of the mean-squared temperature, the wavelength, and the Kolmogorov microscale at various link lengths are presented. PMID:27139862

  4. Predictive Understanding of Seasonal Hydrological Dynamics under Climate and Land Use-Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batra, N.; Yang, Y. E.; Choi, H. I.; Kumar, P.; Cai, X.; Fraiture, C. D.

    2008-12-01

    Water has always been and will continue to be an important factor in agricultural production and any alteration in the seasonal distribution of water availability due to climate and land use-land cover change (LULCC) will significantly impact the future production. To achieve the ecologic, economic and social objectives of sustainability, physical understanding of the linkages between climatic changes, LULCC and hydrological response is required. Aided by satellite data, modeling and understanding of the interactions between physical processes of the climate system and society, more reliable regional LULCC and climate change projections are now available. However, resulting quantitative projection of changes on the regional scale hydrological components at the seasonal time scale are sparse. This study attempts to quantify the seasonal hydrological response due to projected LULCC and climate change scenario of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in different hydro-climatic regions of the world. The Common Land Model (CLM) is used for global assessment of future hydrologic response with the development of a consistent global GIS based database for the surface boundary conditions and meteorological forcing of the model. Future climate change projections are derived from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group I - The Physical Science Basis. The study is performed over nine river basins selected from Asia, Africa and North America to present the broad climatic and landscape controls on the seasonal hydrological dynamics. Future changes in water availability are quite evident from our results based upon changes in the volume and seasonality of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration. Severe water scarcity is projected to occur in certain seasons which may not be known through annual estimates. Knowledge of the projected seasonal hydrological response can be effectively used for developing adaptive management strategies for the sustainability

  5. The fourth state of water

    OpenAIRE

    E.V. Savich

    2013-01-01

    Четвертое состояние воды – это водяной пар под энергетическим воздействием напряженности магнитного поля в точке Кюри, в момент магнитного фазового перехода обретает свойство сегнетоэлектрической плазмы, которая есть основа образований таких природных явлений, как грозовое облако и шаровая молния, способных при определенных условиях выделять молнийные разряды и при взрыве большое количество тепловой энергии, что характерно для низкотемпературного реактора. The fourth state of water is aque...

  6. Heading for the fourth nuclear age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author examines the evolution of the global nuclear order since the advent of nuclear weapons in 1945 to present by breaking down the sixty-plus years of nuclear history into three analytically distinct 'ages', each lasting roughly twenty years. By doing so, the author traces back the roots of the current nuclear predicament to some early seeds of trouble which have gradually grown more profound. He attributes much of the unraveling of the nuclear order to: - Certain inherent weaknesses in the original NPT formula; - Changes in the global distribution of power since the codification of the nuclear order in the 1960's; - The dissemination of nuclear weapon technology; and - Complacency and subsequent disillusionment with the nuclear order since the early 1990's. The paper further analyzes what could precipitate a new nuclear age around 2010. The author argues that such a 'fourth nuclear age' would likely be characterized by either a nuclear anarchy, which he believes has become the default option, or a more benign nuclear order manifested by lower numbers of weapons and stringent controls and restrictions on remaining nuclear arsenals and activities. He concludes by considering the more pressing requirements for regaining nuclear stability

  7. Handle Fireworks with Care on The Fourth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fourth Take steps to avoid injury while celebrating independence To use the sharing features on this page, ... a university news release. And Dr. Jay McCollum, director of emergency services at the university's Eye Hospital, ...

  8. Fourth Moments and Independent Component Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Miettinen, Jari; Taskinen, Sara; Nordhausen, Klaus; Oja, Hannu

    2014-01-01

    In independent component analysis it is assumed that the components of the observed random vector are linear combinations of latent independent random variables, and the aim is then to find an estimate for a transformation matrix back to these independent components. In the engineering literature, there are several traditional estimation procedures based on the use of fourth moments, such as FOBI (fourth order blind identification), JADE (joint approximate diagonalization of eigenmatrices), a...

  9. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer; Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, waar? Het IPCC rapport geeft het antwoord

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeiler, W. [Kropman, Rijswijk (Netherlands)

    2007-09-15

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity. [Dutch] Het klimaat verandert. De gemiddelde temperatuur stijgt. Er komen vaker en vaker extreme weersomstandigheden voor. Denk in Nederland aan de hittegolven en de droogte van de zomer 2003 en aan de vele regenbuien in augustus 2004, de natste augustus maand in 150 jaar. Vooral de mensen in ontwikkelingslanden en de mensen in kwetsbare gebieden zoals Nededand zullen het meest worden getroffen door de gevolgen van klimaatverandering. Ook de natuur zal ingrijpend veranderen. Bepaalde plant- en diersoorten zullen uitsterven andere zullen gaan overwoekeren. De diversiteit zal sterk afnemen.

  10. Predicted risk of cobalt deficiency in grazing sheep from a geochemical survey; communicating uncertainty with the IPCC verbal scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lark, R. M.; Ander, E. L.; Cave, M. R.; Knights, K. V.; Glennon, M. M.; Scanlon, R. P.

    2014-05-01

    Deficiency or excess of certain trace elements in the soil causes problems for agriculture, including disorders of grazing ruminants. Farmers and their advisors in Ireland use index values for the concentration of total soil cobalt and manganese to identify where grazing sheep are at risk of cobalt deficiency. We used cokriging with topsoil data from a regional geochemical survey across six counties of Ireland to form local cokriging predictions of cobalt and manganese concentrations with an attendant distribution which reflects the joint uncertainty of these predictions. From this distribution we then computed conditional probabilities for different combinations of cobalt and manganese index values, and so for the corresponding inferred risk to sheep of cobalt deficiency and the appropriateness of different management interventions. The challenge is to communicate these results effectively to an audience comprising, inter alia, farmers, agronomists and veterinarians. Numerical probabilities are not generally well-understood by non-specialists. For this reason we presented our results as maps using a verbal scale to communicate the probability that a deficiency is indicated by local soil conditions, or that a particular intervention is indicated. In the light of recent research on the effectiveness of the verbal scale used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to communicate probabilistic information we reported the geostatistical predictions as follows. First, we use the basic IPCC scale with intensifiers, but we also indicate the corresponding probabilities (as percentages) as recommended by Budescu et al. (2009). Second, we make it clear that the source of uncertainty in these predictions is the spatial variability of soil Co and Mn. The outcome under consideration is therefore that a particular soil management scenario would be indicated if the soil properties were known without error, possible uncertainty about the implications of particular soil

  11. The Naturalness of the Fourth SM Family

    CERN Document Server

    Sultansoy, S

    2009-01-01

    The necessity of the fourth family follows from the SM basics. According to flavor democracy the Dirac masses of the fourth SM family fermions are almost equal with preferable value 450 GeV, which corresponds to common (for all fundamental fermions) Yukawa coupling equal to SU(2) gauge coupling gW. In principle, one expect u4 a little bit lighter than d4, while nu4 could be essentially lighter than l4 due to Majorana mass terms for right-handed components of neutrinos. Obviously, the fourth family quarks will be copiously produced at the LHC. However, the first indication of the fourth SM family may be provided by early Higgs boson observation due to almost an order enhancement of the gluon fusion to Higgs cross-section. For the same reason the Tevatron still has a chance to observe the Higgs boson before the LHC. Concerning the fourth family leptons, in general, best place will be NLC/CLIC. However, for some mass regions and MNS matrix elements double discovery of both the nu4 and H could be possible at the ...

  12. Fourth Tennessee water resources symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The annual Tennessee Water Resources Symposium was initiated in 1988 as a means to bring together people with common interests in the state's important water-related resources at a technical, professional level. Initially the symposium was sponsored by the American Institute of Hydrology and called the Hydrology Symposium, but the Tennessee Section of the American Water Resources Association (AWRA) has taken on the primary coordination role for the symposium over the last two years and the symposium name was changed in 1990 to water resources to emphasize a more inter-disciplinary theme. This year's symposium carries on the successful tradition of the last three years. Our goal is to promote communication and cooperation among Tennessee's water resources professionals: scientists, engineers, and researchers from federal, state, academic, and private institutions and organizations who have interests and responsibilities for the state's water resources. For these conference proceedings, individual papers are processed separately for the Energy Data Base

  13. Fourth International Seminar and Fourth National Workshop 'Use and development of Health Related Industrial Isotope Products'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of the main subjects was tackled during the Fourth International Seminar and Fourth National Workshop 'Use and development of Health Related Industrial Isotope Products' which took place on December 7th, 8th and 9th 2010, devoted to the XV Anniversary of the Isotope Centre is showed in the paper.(author)

  14. Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Qian

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Cloud Fraction (CF is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulated in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM long-term ground-based measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity. Comparisons are performed for three climate regimes as represented by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP, Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA. Our intercomparisons of three independent measurements of CF or sky-cover reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5% for multi-year monthly (annual mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The total sky imager (TSI produces smaller total cloud fraction (TCF compared to a radar/lidar dataset for highly cloudy days (CF > 0.8, but produces a larger TCF value than the radar/lidar for less cloudy conditions (CF < 0.3. The compensating errors in lower and higher CF days result in small biases of TCF between the vertically pointing radar/lidar dataset and the hemispheric TSI measurements as multi-year data is averaged. The unique radar/lidar CF measurements enable us to evaluate seasonal variation of cloud vertical structures in the GCMs.

    Both inter-model deviation and model bias against observation are investigated in this study. Another unique aspect of this study is that we use simultaneous measurements of CF and surface radiative fluxes to diagnose potential discrepancies among the GCMs in representing other cloud optical properties than TCF. The results show that the model-observation and inter-model deviations have similar magnitudes for the TCF and the normalized cloud effect, and these deviations are larger than those in surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that other dimensions of cloud in addition to cloud amount, such as cloud optical thickness and

  15. A Fourth Chiral Generation And Susy Breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Wingerter, Akin

    2011-01-01

    We revisit four generations within the context of supersymmetry. We compute the perturbativity limits for the fourth generation Yukawa couplings and show that if the masses of the fourth generation lie within reasonable limits of their present experimental lower bounds, it is possible to have perturbativity only up to scales around 1000 TeV, i.e. the current experimental bounds and perturbative unification are mutually exclusive. Such low scales are ideally suited to incorporate gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking, where the mediation scale can be as low as 10-20 TeV. The minimal messenger model, however, is highly constrained. Lack of electroweak symmetry breaking rules out a large part of the parameter space, and in the remaining part, the fourth generation stau is tachyonic.

  16. IPCC确定的几种未来大气CO2浓度水平对人为CO2排放的限制%The Limit to Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions under IPCC Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金心; 石广玉

    2001-01-01

    A three-dimensional ocean carbon cycle model and a simple terrestrial biosphere model are used to simulate anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios for future atmospheric Pco2 levels. We estimate anthropogenic carbon emissions required to stabilize future atmospheric CO2 at various levels ranging from 350×10-6 to 750×10-6. All the stabilization scenarios require a substantial future reduction in emissions, but the amount to be reduction for each of the scenarios is quite difference.%用三维海洋碳循环模式和一个简单的陆地生物圈模式计算了IPCC(政府间气候变化委员会)未来大气CO2情景中海洋和生物圈的吸收,并结合土地变化的资料得出燃料的排放值。结果表明:尽管在所有的构想下,为了使大气中CO2浓度达到稳定必须减少排放,但对应不同的IPCC未来大气CO2情景,对人为CO2排放的限制是很不相同的。

  17. Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

  18. "Researching" with Third- and Fourth-Graders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liston, Barbara

    1970-01-01

    In order to instill in children the skills which will be basic to their school experience, words implying a process (such as "hemp,""parasite," and "vanilla") may be "researched" by third and fourth graders through the use of a dictionary, an encyclopedia, a supplementary book on the subject, and an interview with an adult. The child makes a…

  19. Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Diane F.

    2011-01-01

    The fourth edition of "Sex Differences in Cognitive Abilities" critically examines the breadth of research on this complex and controversial topic, with the principal aim of helping the reader to understand where sex differences are found--and where they are not. Since the publication of the third edition, there have been many exciting and…

  20. Fourth-Generation Computer Languages: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricks, John

    1988-01-01

    Points out that mainframe computer users today can make their requirements known to the computer in simple English. Provides a listing of fourth generation computer language advantages over third generation languages. Summarizes a program to streamline faculty records on a mainframe computer. (MVL)

  1. Recreational Reading: Choices of Fourth Graders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulware, Beverly J.; Foley, Christy L.

    1998-01-01

    Compares readability levels of the recreational reading books selected by fourth graders. Finds that the students chose books from their school libraries and read (or chose not to read) books on all their reading levels. Concludes that students read books related to their interests, regardless of the book's readability or the student's reading…

  2. Fourth Dutch Process Security Control Event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luiijf, H.A.M.; Zielstra, A.

    2010-01-01

    On December 1st, 2009, the fourth Dutch Process Control Security Event took place in Baarn, The Netherlands. The security event with the title ‘Manage IT!’ was organised by the Dutch National Infrastructure against Cybercrime (NICC). Mid of November, a group of over thirty people participated in the

  3. Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessments of climate change face the task of making information about uncertainty accessible and useful to decision-makers. The literature in behavior economics provides many examples of how people make decisions under conditions of uncertainty relying on inappropriate heuristics, leading to inconsistent and counterproductive choices. Modern risk communication practices recommend a number of methods to overcome these hurdles, which have been recommended for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports. This paper evaluates the success of the most recent IPCC approach to uncertainty communication, based on a controlled survey of climate change experts. Evaluating the results from the survey, and from a similar survey recently conducted among university students, the paper suggests that the most recent IPCC approach leaves open the possibility for biased and inconsistent responses to the information. The paper concludes by suggesting ways to improve the approach for future IPCC assessment reports. (authors)

  4. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  5. The Effects of Background Music in the Classroom on the Productivity, Motivation, and Behavior of Fourth Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Kevin N.

    2007-01-01

    Many students in a fourth grade classroom at Logan Elementary School are expressing numerous types of negative behaviors, are not motivated to learn, and do not stay on-task. In an effort to change these students, an action research study was conducted that implemented background music in the classroom. There were ten fourth grade students who…

  6. Forestal measures against climate change. Review and status after the Fourth Conference of the Parties of the Climate Convention; Skogtiltak mot klimaendringer. Oversikt og status etter fjerde partskonferanse til Klimakonvensjonen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naess, Lars Otto

    1999-08-01

    The Kyoto Protocol of December 1997 opens up the possibility that forestal measures can be used to meet parts of the commitments of the industrialized countries to achieve a net reduction of emission of climate gases. The present report summarizes the issues involved in forestal measures that will mitigate global climate changes. The emphasis is on forestal measures in the climate negotiations and technical carbon binding potential. There is also a brief review of economic, environmental and social aspects. The next decades will be crucial to the many of the world`s forests. The forests contain a large part of the biological diversity. Above all this is true of tropical forests. But untouched areas in tempered and boreal areas are also experiencing various types of threats, including the effects of a possible global heating. It is a main conclusion that, in spite of many complex challenges, climate measures in the forests may play a constructive role both in counteracting global climate changes and in improving the management of the world`s forest resources. 89 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  7. Imitatio Christi in the fourth gospel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.G. van der Merwe

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Imitatio Christi is a concept which, although not referred to explicitly in the Fourth Gospel, is clearly spelled out in relation to the agency motif occurring in the Gospel. The disciples of Jesus have been appointed as his agents to continue his mission after his departure to his Father. In giving this message through to his readers, the Fourth Evangelist refers to Jesus' calling of his disciples, [Foreign font omitted]; pictures Jesus as [Foreign font omitted]; uses [Foreign font omitted] (the particle of comparison to compare the lives of the disciples with that of Jesus; points out the tasks the disciples had to perform after Jesus' ascension and, finally, indicates how Jesus dwells in his disciples through the Paraclete.

  8. Global estimates of carbon stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - time series from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V. N. B.; Grassi, G.

    2012-08-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all countries of the world. Parties to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to provide periodic estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The current study aims to consistently estimate the carbon (C) stock changes from living forest biomass for all countries of the world, in order to complete the LULUCF sector in EDGAR. In order to derive comparable estimates for developing and developed countries, it is crucial to use a single methodology with global applicability. Data for developing countries are generally poor, such that only the Tier 1 methods from either the IPCC Good Practice Guide for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF) 2003 or the IPCC 2006 Guidelines can be applied to these countries. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level following both IPCC GPG-LULUCF 2003 and IPCC 2006, using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the Global Ecological Zone (GEZ) map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for gains, harvest, fires (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3, GFEDv.3) and net deforestation for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two sets of IPCC guidance differed by about 40 %, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the

  9. Fourth international conference on Networks & Communications

    CERN Document Server

    Meghanathan, Natarajan; Nagamalai, Dhinaharan; Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom)

    2013-01-01

    Computer Networks & Communications (NetCom) is the proceedings from the Fourth International Conference on Networks & Communications. This book covers theory, methodology and applications of computer networks, network protocols and wireless networks, data communication technologies, and network security. The proceedings will feature peer-reviewed papers that illustrate research results, projects, surveys and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in the diverse areas of computer networks & communications.

  10. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    OpenAIRE

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-01-01

    Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and en...

  11. Flavour democracy calls for the fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative mode, that the inter species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavour democracy provided there are four families of sequential quark-leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed. (author). 15 refs

  12. Flavour democracy calls for the fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative model, that the inter species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavor democracy provided there are three exactly massless neutrinos and four families of sequential quark-leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed. (author). 22 refs

  13. Flavour Democracy Calls for the Fourth Generation

    CERN Document Server

    Datta, A

    1993-01-01

    It is argued with the help of an illustrative model, that the inter--species hierarchy among the fermion masses and the quark mixing angles can be accommodated naturally in the standard model with (approximate) flavor democracy provided there are four families of sequential quark--leptons with all members of the fourth family having roughly equal masses. The special problem of light neutrino masses (if any) and possible solutions are also discussed.

  14. A Comprehensive Modeling Study on Regional Climate Model (RCM Application — Regional Warming Projections in Monthly Resolutions under IPCC A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Mujibur Rahman

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Some of the major dimensions of climate change include increase in surface temperature, longer spells of droughts in significant portions of the world, associated higher evapotranspiration rates, and so on. It is therefore essential to comprehend the future possible scenario of climate change in terms of global warming. A high resolution limited area Regional Climate Model (RCM can produce reasonably appropriate projections to be used for climate-scenario generation in country-scale. This paper features the development of future surface temperature projections for Bangladesh on monthly resolution for each year from 2011 to 2100 applying Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS, and it explains in detail the modeling processes including the model features, domain size selection, bias identification as well as construction of change field for the concerned climatic variable, in this case, surface temperature. PRECIS was run on a 50 km horizontal grid-spacing under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1B scenario and it was found to perform reasonably well in simulating future surface temperature of Bangladesh. The linear regression between observed and model simulated results of monthly average temperatures, within the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000, gives a high correlation of 0.93. The applied change field in average annual temperature shows only 0.5 °C–1 °C deviation from the observed values over the period from 2005 to 2008. Eventually, from the projected average temperature change during the years 1971–2000, it is apparent that warming in Bangladesh prevails invariably every month, which might eventually result in an average annual increase of 4 °C by the year 2100. Calculated anomalies in country-average annual temperature mostly remain on the positive side throughout the period of 2071–2100 indicating an overall up-shift. Apart from these quantitative analyses of temporal changes of temperature

  15. Fourth order difference methods for hyperbolic IBVP's

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Bertil; Olsson, Pelle

    1994-01-01

    Fourth order difference approximations of initial-boundary value problems for hyperbolic partial differential equations are considered. We use the method of lines approach with both explicit and compact implicit difference operators in space. The explicit operator satisfies an energy estimate leading to strict stability. For the implicit operator we develop boundary conditions and give a complete proof of strong stability using the Laplace transform technique. We also present numerical experiments for the linear advection equation and Burgers' equation with discontinuities in the solution or in its derivative. The first equation is used for modeling contact discontinuities in fluid dynamics, the second one for modeling shocks and rarefaction waves. The time discretization is done with a third order Runge-Kutta TVD method. For solutions with discontinuities in the solution itself we add a filter based on second order viscosity. In case of the non-linear Burger's equation we use a flux splitting technique that results in an energy estimate for certain different approximations, in which case also an entropy condition is fulfilled. In particular we shall demonstrate that the unsplit conservative form produces a non-physical shock instead of the physically correct rarefaction wave. In the numerical experiments we compare our fourth order methods with a standard second order one and with a third order TVD-method. The results show that the fourth order methods are the only ones that give good results for all the considered test problems.

  16. Art meets mathematics in the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Lipscomb, Stephen Leon

    2014-01-01

    To see objects that live in the fourth dimension we humans would need to add a fourth dimension to our three-dimensional vision. An example of such an object that lives in the fourth dimension is a hyper-sphere or “3-sphere”. The quest to imagine the elusive 3-sphere has deep historical roots: medieval poet Dante Alighieri, in his circa 1300 AD Divine Comedy, used a 3-sphere to convey his allegorical vision of the Christian afterlife. In 1917, Albert Einstein visualized the universe, at each instant in time, as a 3-sphere. He described his representation as “…the place where the reader’s imagination boggles. Nobody can imagine this thing.” Over time, however, our understanding of the concept of dimension evolved. By 2003, a researcher had successfully rendered into human vision the structure of a 4-web (think of an every increasingly-dense spider’s web). In this text Stephen Lipscomb takes his innovative dimension theory research a step further, using the 4-web to reveal a new partial image of a...

  17. Al Gore' Inconvenient Truth, where? The IPCC report provides the answer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate is changing. Extreme weather conditions occur with greater frequency. In the Netherlands, for example, there have been heat waves, the drought of 2003, exceptional rainstorms and, in 2004, the wettest August in 150 years. The populations of developing countries and vulnerable areas such as the Netherlands will bear the consequences of climate change. The impact on the natural environment will also be severe. Some flora and fauna will extinct while others will proliferate. The outcome will be a strong decline in biodiversity

  18. Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 – 5FL1 time series from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. R. Petrescu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all world countries. Parties to UNFCCC are required to provide periodic estimates of GHG emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. The aim of the current study is comparing the IPCC GPG 2003 and the IPCC AFOLU 2006 by calculating the C stock changes in living forest biomass, and then using computed results to extend the EDGAR database. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level, i.e. using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the GEZ Ecological Zone map in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for Gains, Harvest, Net Deforestation and Fires (GFED3, for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two set of IPCC guidance differed by about 40%, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the results using IPCC AFOLU 2006 for Annex I countries are compared to other international datasets (UNFCCC, FAO or scientific publications, it emerges a significant overestimation of the sink. For developing countries, we conclude that C stock change in forest remaining forest can hardly be estimated with Tier 1 method. Overall, confronting the IPCC 2003 and 2006 methodologies we conclude that IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR and provide a consistent global picture of C stock changes in living forest biomass independent of

  19. Global estimates of C stock changes in living forest biomass: EDGARv4.3 - 5FL1 time series from 1990 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, A. M. R.; Abad-Viñas, R.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Blujdea, V.; Grassi, G.

    2012-03-01

    While the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) focuses on global estimates for the full set of anthropogenic activities, the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector might be the most diverse and most challenging to cover consistently for all world countries. Parties to UNFCCC are required to provide periodic estimates of GHG emissions, following the latest approved methodological guidance by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The aim of the current study is comparing the IPCC GPG 2003 and the IPCC AFOLU 2006 by calculating the C stock changes in living forest biomass, and then using computed results to extend the EDGAR database. For this purpose, we applied the IPCC Tier 1 method at global level, i.e. using spatially coarse activity data (i.e. area, obtained combining two different global forest maps: the Global Land Cover map and the eco-zones subdivision of the GEZ Ecological Zone map) in combination with the IPCC default C stocks and C stock change factors. Results for the C stock changes were calculated separately for Gains, Harvest, Net Deforestation and Fires (GFED3), for the years 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010. At the global level, results obtained with the two set of IPCC guidance differed by about 40%, due to different assumptions and default factors. The IPCC Tier 1 method unavoidably introduced high uncertainties due to the "globalization" of parameters. When the results using IPCC AFOLU 2006 for Annex I countries are compared to other international datasets (UNFCCC, FAO) or scientific publications, it emerges a significant overestimation of the sink. For developing countries, we conclude that C stock change in forest remaining forest can hardly be estimated with Tier 1 method. Overall, confronting the IPCC 2003 and 2006 methodologies we conclude that IPCC 2006 suits best the needs of EDGAR and provide a consistent global picture of C stock changes in living forest biomass independent of country estimates.

  20. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands: summary Report 1990-1997 (IPCC Tables 7A)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; Spakman J; Berg JC van den; LAE

    1999-01-01

    This report documents the Netherlands' annual greenhouse gas emission inventory submitted for 1998 according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Emissions of CO2 and N2O increased from 1990 to 1997 (with a

  1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands: Summary Report 1990-1998 (IPCC Tables 1-7)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; Berg JC van den; Peters JAHW; LAE

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the 1998 Netherlands' annual submission of its greenhouse gas emission inventory according to the European Union's Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism and to the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). From the inventories it can be concluded that emissio

  2. The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

    2009-04-01

    of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

  3. Rice production simulation under IPCC SRES A1B scenario in Fuiian Province%基于IPCC SRES A1B情景下的福建省水稻生产模拟研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    江敏; 金之庆; 杨慧; 朱朝枝; 林文雄

    2012-01-01

    region in Northwest Fujian, single cropping rice regions in the mountain areas of Northwest Fujian. 17 sampling sites and 9 representative rice varieties from the three regions were studied. Daily weather data for 2006—2007 and regional test yield data for the period were used to initialize CERES-Rice model parameters. Based on Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) on A1B scenario of IPCC, data from the PRECIS were integrated with CERES-Rice model to predict the influence of climate change on rice production in Fujian Province in the 2020s and 2040s. The simulation considered enhanced CO2-fertilization effects and two cultivation modes under rain-fed and irrigated conditions. The results suggested that irrespective of rain-fed or irrigated rice, future growth durations shortened for three rice cropping regions.Growth duration of single cropping rice shortened the most (over 20 days) under the 2040s scenario. Future yields for single cropping rice and early rice dropped compared with yields under the baseline weather conditions. Yields for rain-fed and irrigated early rice in double cropping rice region in Southeast Fujian dropped by 12.4% and 11.3%, respectively, while that for early rice in double cropping rice region in Northwest Fujian was minimal under the 2020s scenario. Because of negative contributions of mid-season varieties, yields for rain-fed and irrigated single cropping rice region in mountain regions of Northwest Fujian dropped by 7.1% and 2.1%, respectively. Reductions in output of all the treatments increased under the 2040s scenario. On the contrary, yields of late rice over the same period were enhanced even though yield stability was the worst. Under the 2020s scenario, increasing yield rate of 21.0% of later rice in irrigated double cropping rice region in Northwest Fujian and 10.6% in Southeast Fujian were noted, but slight yield increases for rain-fed these rice regions. The amplitude of rice yield increase dropped for all rice regions under

  4. Implications from the climatic change dynamics for research and development concerning renewable energies in Germany; Implikationen aus der Dynamik des Klimawandels fuer Forschung und Entwicklung erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewerenz, Jana Celeste

    2009-03-15

    The climatic change is a fact. The contribution of the fourth IPCC (international panel on climate change) report is covered in the first chapter of the volume, describing the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas production during the last centuries, possible mitigation strategies, unavoidable consequences, macroeconomic costs for stabilizing the greenhouse gas emissions and possibilities of renewable energy resources. The second chapter is the Stern report 2006 on the existing scientific literature concerning the climatic change and its consequences, risk analyses and cost estimations for greenhouse gas reduction strategies on the one hand and costs of the possibly catastrophic consequences of the climate change on the other hand. The third chapter is the pilot study of the Federal Ministry of environment, nature conservation and nuclear safety 2007/2008. The fourth chapter is the contribution of the scientific commission of the Federal government on global environmental changes (WBGU) no 5: new stimuli for the climate policy: chances of the German double presidency. The fifth chapter covers the Meseberg topics - the integrated energy and climate program (IEKP) followed by a discussion of the described contributions.

  5. IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化%Long term trends in global sea level under IPCC SRES A2 scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈长霖; 左军成; 杜凌; 何倩倩

    2012-01-01

    利用CCSM3(Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2(IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化.模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.0048 mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献.在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势.同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献.北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度.%Based on CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3) model, the long-term sea level trends of global ocean in the 20th and 21st century under IPCC SRES A2 scenario (IPCC, 2001) are ana-lyzed in this paper. The result shows that global sea level rises about 4. 0 cm during 20th century through steric expansion, with an acceleration of 0. 004 8 mm/a2; eustatic changes are not included in this simulation. CCSM3 simulation also shows that in the 21st century sea level will rise in acceleration; the global sea level will rise 30 cm during the whole century through steric expansion. The vertical distribution of thermosteric and halosteric anomalies that contribute to sea level change is very different between ocean basins. Significant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean can extend to 2 500 m depth, while the salinity change partially counteracts sea level rise due to this warming. The steric anomalies in the Pacific Ocean occur mainly in the upper 700 m. In the Southern Ocean, steric change can extend to the entire water column.

  6. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  7. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  8. Geometry, relativity and the fourth dimension

    CERN Document Server

    Rucker, Rudolf

    1977-01-01

    This is a highly readable, popular exposition of the fourth dimension and the structure of the universe. A remarkable pictorial discussion of the curved space-time we call home, it achieves even greater impact through the use of 141 excellent illustrations. This is the first sustained visual account of many important topics in relativity theory that up till now have only been treated separately.Finding a perfect analogy in the situation of the geometrical characters in Flatland, Professor Rucker continues the adventures of the two-dimensional world visited by a three-dimensional being to expl

  9. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuomisto, H. [ed.] [IVO Group, Vantaa (Finland); Purhonen, H. [ed.] [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Kouhia, V. [ed.] [Lappeenranta Univ. of Technology (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries.

  10. The fourth pattern of attachment: Disorganized / disoriented

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlatka Cugmas

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the study of recent scientific literature about the development of attachment behavior, the author answers the following questions about: the behavior children categorized as Disorganized/disorientated or Controlling in the procedure of the Strange situation; the life circumstances, in which these children live; the reasons for lack of balanced strategies of attachment and characteristics of their general manner of adaptation. The author finds the characteristics of the mothers' (insensitivity to be significantly influential for the emergence of the fourth pattern of attachment. These children are heterogeneous regarding adaptation in general. Professional help preceding negative consequences for their socioemotional development is neccesary.

  11. Fourth international seminar on horizontal steam generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The general objective of the International Seminars of Horizontal Steam Generator Modelling has been the improvement in understanding of realistic thermal hydraulic behaviour of the generators when performing safety analyses for VVER reactors. The main topics presented in the fourth seminar were: thermal hydraulic experiments and analyses, primary collector integrity, feedwater distributor replacement, management of primary-to-secondary leakage accidents and new developments in the VVER safety technology. The number of participants, representing designers and manufacturers of the horizontal steam generators, plant operators, engineering companies, research organizations, universities and regulatory authorities, was 70 from 10 countries

  12. Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the last millennium and two IPCC scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortega, Pablo; Montoya, Marisa; Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Dpto. Astrofisica y Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Instituto de Geociencias, Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Facultad de Ciencias Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Mignot, Juliette [IPSL/LOCEAN, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Legutke, Stephanie [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in several climate simulations with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, including two forced integrations of the last millennium, one millennial-long control run, and two future scenario simulations of the twenty-first century. This constitutes a new framework in which the AMOC response to future climate change conditions is addressed in the context of both its past evolution and its natural variability. The main mechanisms responsible for the AMOC variability at interannual and multidecadal time scales are described. At high frequencies, the AMOC is directly responding to local changes in the Ekman transport, associated with three modes of climate variability: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. At low frequencies, the AMOC is largely controlled by convection activity south of Greenland. Again, the atmosphere is found to play a leading role in these variations. Positive anomalies of convection are preceded in 1 year by intensified zonal winds, associated in the forced runs to a positive NAO-like pattern. Finally, the sensitivity of the AMOC to three different forcing factors is investigated. The major impact is associated with increasing greenhouse gases, given their strong and persistent radiative forcing. Starting in the Industrial Era and continuing in the future scenarios, the AMOC experiences a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the preindustrial average. Also, a weak but significant AMOC strengthening is found in response to the major volcanic eruptions, which produce colder and saltier surface conditions over the main convection regions. In contrast, no meaningful impact of the solar forcing on the AMOC is observed. Indeed, solar irradiance only affects convection in the Nordic Seas, with a marginal contribution to the AMOC variability in the ECHO-G runs. (orig.)

  13. Field Studies Show That In Situ Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors for East African Agriculture Are Less Than IPCC Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelster, D.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Rufino, M.; Rosenstock, T. S.; Wanyama, G.

    2015-12-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African agricultural systems are thought to comprise a large portion of total emissions from the continent, however these estimates have been calculated using emission factors (EF) from other regions due to the lack of field studies in Africa, which results in large uncertainties for these estimates. Field measurements from western Kenya calculating emissions over a year in 59 different sites found that GHG emissions from typical smallholder farms ranged from 2.8 to 15.0 Mg CO2-C ha-1, -6.0 to 2.4 kg CH4-C ha-1 and -0.1 to 1.8 kg N2O-N ha-1, and were not affected by management intensity. The lack of a response in N2O emissions to N fertilization suggests that the EF currently used in national inventories overestimates N2O emissions from typical smallholder agriculture. Another study measuring N2O and CH4 emissions from manure deposited by grazing cattle found that the N2O EF ranged from 0.1 to 0.2%, while the CH4 EF ranged from 0.04 to 0.14 Kg CH4-C per 173 kg animal. These suggest that the current IPCC EF overestimate agricultural soil and manure GHG emissions for Kenya, and likely for much of East Africa.

  14. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Rajendran; Ravi S Nanjundiah; Sulochana Gadgil; J Srinivasan

    2012-06-01

    The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST–rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST–rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

  15. Testing an astronomically-based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    We compare the performance of a recently proposed empirical climate model based on astronomical harmonics against all available general circulation climate models (GCM) used by the IPCC (2007) to interpret the 20th century global surface temperature. The proposed model assumes that the climate is resonating with, or synchronized to a set of natural harmonics that have been associated to the solar system planetary motion, mostly determined by Jupiter and Saturn. We show that the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 1850-1950, and vice versa. The 9.1-year cycle is shown to be likely related to a decadal Soli/Lunar tidal oscillation, while the 10-10.5, 20-21 and 60-62 year cycles are sy...

  16. Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D

  17. IPCC 排放因子法探究 CO2排放量%CO 2 emission of Zhejiang and Guizhou province by the method of emission factor(IPCC)from 2005 to 2012

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杜赟

    2015-01-01

    this research explored the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in Zhejiang and Guizhou province within the time period from 2005 to 2012 by IPCC emission factor method. In addition,CO2 / GDP was also investigated to discuss the relationship between CO2 emission and economic development. The outcomes showed,CO2 emissions from the two areas have been increasing linearly over the past 8 years. However,CO2 / GDP displayed descending trends in the two provinces. This indicates that, with technical innovation and efficiency improvement,fossil fuels consumption is on its way to sus-tainable development. Generally speaking,the economic status of Zhejiang is much better than that of Guizhou. This is not only reflected on its higher economic volume,but also due to its lower CO2 /GDP. In addition,Guizhou has also made great progress in its sustainable economic development, reflected by its rising GDP and decreasing CO2 / GDP during this period. However,huge space for its further improvement still remains in terms of sustainable development.%本课题收集了浙江省和贵州省2005—2012年的化石能源消耗量相关数据,运用 IPCC 排放因子法计算了两省的 CO2排放情况,并结合两省经济数据,考查了单位 GDP CO2排放量。结果显示,两省 CO2排放量均为线性增长趋势,而两省的单位 GDP CO2排放量却逐渐降低。说明随着经济的发展,生产技术的改革,效率的提高,化石能源的消耗逐步迈入了可持续发展的道路。综合看来,浙江省经济的发展要优于贵州省,这不仅体现在经济总量远远高于贵州省,而且其单位 GDP CO2排放量低于贵州省。另外,贵州省经济状况虽然落后,但是从其不断上升的 GDP 总量和不断下降的单位 GDP CO2排放量可知,其经济发展处于不断进步阶段。贵州省在可持续经济发展道路上取得的成绩是毋庸置疑的,继续提升的空间也是巨大的。

  18. Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

    2012-01-01

    The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each

  19. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  20. Climate change negotiations. COP-2 and beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-01

    The Second Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-2), which met in Geneva during July, 1996, was only a partial success when considered in relation to its avowed aims, gaining acceptance of the Second Assessment Report by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), producing an agreed Ministerial Declaration, making real advances towards a protocol, and agreeing Rules of Procedure. This paper describes the main aims of COP-2, consideration of and response to the IPCC`s Second Assessment Report, the COP-2 Ministerial Declaration, some significant statements by individual country delegations at COP-2, lack of progress on Rules of Procedure for the Conference, realization of returning the greenhouse gas emissions in industrialized countries based on the Montreal Protocol, differing views among countries to the Convention on a protocol, prospects for achieving agreement on a legally binding protocol at COP-3 planned for Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and recent scientific and technical findings.

  1. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Minai, Ali A; Unifying Themes in Complex Systems IV

    2008-01-01

    In June of 2002, over 500 professors, students and researchers met in Boston, Massachusetts for the Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems. The attendees represented a remarkably diverse collection of fields: biology, ecology, physics, engineering, computer science, economics, psychology and sociology, The goal of the conference was to encourage cross-fertilization between the many disciplines represented and to deepen understanding of the properties common to all complex systems. This volume contains 43 papers selected from the more than 200 presented at the conference. Topics include: cellular automata, neurology, evolution, computer science, network dynamics, and urban planning. About NECSI: For over 10 years, The New England Complex Systems Institute (NECSI) has been instrumental in the development of complex systems science and its applications. NECSI conducts research, education, knowledge dissemination, and community development around the world for the promotion of the study of complex sys...

  2. Fourth harmonic generation of DKDP crystal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deuterated dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystals of different deuterium contents were cut for type-Ⅰ non-critical phase-matching with the direction at 90° to the crystal z axis and at 45° to the crystal x axis, and then measured in the fourth harmonic generation experiments with fundamental wavelengths of 1 064 nm and 1 053 nm. respectively. The optimum deuterium content of DKDP crystal was confirmed by measuring the relation between deuterium content and phase-matching angle, The results indicate that DKDP crystal can not achieve non-critical phase matching by adjusting its deuterium content at room temperature with the fundamental wavelength of 1 064 nm. However, at the fundamental wavelength of 1053 nm. the optimum deuterium content of DKDP crystal is 85%, to achieve non-critical phase matching at room temperature. (authors)

  3. Fourth Thematic CERN School of Computing

    CERN Multimedia

    Alberto Pace, CSC Director

    2016-01-01

    The Fourth Thematic School of Computing (tCSC2016) takes place this year in Split, Croatia, from 22 to 28 May 2016.   The theme is "Efficient and Parallel Processing of Scientific Data", looking at: The challenge of scientific data processing: commonalities, analogies and the main differences between different sciences. Size of scientific software projects. Parallelism and asynchronism: computation and I/O. The School is open to postgraduate students and research workers with a few years' experience in elementary particle physics, computing, engineering or related fields.  All applicants are welcome, including former and future participants in the main CSC summer school. Registration will close on 15 February and participation is limited to 24 students. To register, please go here. About: The Thematic Schools are part of the annual series of CERN Schools of Computing, to promote advanced learning and knowledge exchange on the subject of scientific compu...

  4. Fourth ventricle meningiomas: a rare entity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichierri, Angelo; Ruggeri, Andrea; Morselli, Carlotta; Delfini, Roberto

    2011-08-01

    Fourth ventricle meningiomas (FVMs) are rare, often misdiagnosed, lesions. To the best of our knowledge, 47 cases have been reported in the literature: we describe our series of three cases treated at our Institution, focusing on some diagnostic tips and intraoperative features of these tumours. Our three patients have a history of headache. Gait disturbances, vomiting and/or diplopia complicated the clinical picture before the referral at our Department. The operations were uneventful, and the patients fully recovered from neurological symptoms. They are free of recurrence at a median follow-up of 19 years. FVMs are rare lesions, which are difficult to differentiate preoperatively from the much more common ependymomas. A preoperative distinction would be extremely advantageous: indeed, although both tumours share similar radiological and clinical patterns, they clearly differ as to surgical difficulty and outcome. In fact, meningiomas are comparatively easier to remove, granting better clinical results.

  5. Fourth World Theory: The Evolution of . . .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olon F. Dotson

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fourth World theory is a methodology for examining and developing greater understanding of the extent of the distress and abandonment commonly found in the cores of American cities resulting from de-industrialization, historic segregation and discrimination patterns, suburban sprawl, erosion of a viable tax base, racism, inability to embrace the concept of desegregation and civil rights legislation, fear, despair, crumbling infrastructure systems, disinvestment in urban school systems, and environmental justice issues. This article uses the analytical lens of Fourth World theory to examine how such structural and cultural forces contributed to the severely distressed conditions now found in the city of Gary, Indiana. Tracking its one-hundred-year history, from its founding as an industrial town through its post-industrial decline occurring during the city’s first African-American mayor’s five terms in office, the methodology clearly demonstrates how the social construction of race has systematically undermined every aspect of Gary’s overall quality of life. To illustrate that this city is not an anomaly but rather reflects a typical pattern of disparity and uneven development arising from racist practices, Gary is compared to other cities of similar size and also to the much larger Detroit. The article triangulates academic literature, news media archives, and an oral history provided by the mayor to show how Gary evolved from being a model industrial city to a cauldron of racial disparity. The paper concludes by arguing that continued absence of reflection on the nation’s historical racialization of place threatens not just impoverished communities of color, but also the sustainability of the entire nation.

  6. The fourth revolution how the infosphere is reshaping human reality

    CERN Document Server

    Floridi, Luciano

    2014-01-01

    Who are we, and how do we relate to each other? Luciano Floridi, one of the leading figures in contemporary philosophy, argues that the explosive developments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) is changing the answer to these fundamental human questions. As the boundaries between life online and offline break down, and we become seamlessly connected to each other and surrounded by smart, responsive objects, we are all becoming integrated into an ". Personas we adopt in social media, for example, feed into our 'real' lives so that we begin to live, as Floridi puts in, ". Following those led by Copernicus, Darwin, and Freud, this metaphysical shift represents nothing less than a fourth revolution. " defines more and more of our daily activity - the way we shop, work, learn, care for our health, entertain ourselves, conduct our relationships; the way we interact with the worlds of law, finance, and politics; even the way we conduct war. In every department of life, ICTs have become environmenta...

  7. Effects of an Intergenerational Friendly Visit Program on the Attitudes of Fourth Graders toward Elders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbach, Eileen; Kiernan, Sharon

    2002-01-01

    Instruction on aging and stereotypes was followed by weekly visits by 22 fourth-graders to elderly nursing home residents. Students' attitudes toward elders were mixed, but their attitudes toward their own aging changed positively and empathy increased. (Contains 24 references.) (SK)

  8. Developing Cross-Cultural Competence: A Guide for Working with Children and Their Families. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Eleanor W., Ed.; Hanson, Marci J., Ed.

    2011-01-01

    As the U.S. population grows more and more diverse, how can professionals who work with young children and families deliver the best services while honoring different customs, beliefs, and values? The answers are in the fourth edition of this bestselling textbook, fully revised to reflect nearly a decade of population changes and best practices in…

  9. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  10. Development of a risk database for the establishment of invasive mosquito species under impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagaris, Efthimios; Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

    2016-04-01

    Climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the main climatic parameters that are related to the suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS). In this work the future potentiality of IMS spread and establishment over Greece and Italy is assessed following four steps. In the first step current Spatial Risk Databases for the establishment of IMS over Greece and Italy are developed using the meteorological parameters from the ECA&D project. In the second step changes in the climatic parameters in 2050's are estimated using the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. In the third step, the mesoscale meteorological model WRF is used, to simulate the changes in the meteorological fields caused by climate change in a finer grid size using dynamical regional downscaling. Finally, in the fourth step the estimated changes in the meteorological parameters from step three are combined with the observation data from step one in order to estimate the future level of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product is spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

  11. Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

    2009-04-01

    carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

  12. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  13. UK-China Dialogue on Climate Ethics:Finding Consensus Review of the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy%中英气候伦理对话:从分歧走向共识--第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议综述

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    史军

    2014-01-01

    2014年9月21日至23日,第四届气候变化与公共政策国际学术会议暨中英气候伦理与政策研讨会在英国雷丁大学和牛津大学召开。会议围绕五组主题展开:代际气候正义与代内气候正义,气候贫困与消费者选择,平等与发展,国际法律与国际制度,新问题与新技术方案。此次会议对中英学者在应对气候变化问题上增进了解、求同存异、寻找共识起到了重要作用,进一步提升了我国学者参与国际气候问题交流与合作的水平和能力。%The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change and Public Policy, and UK⁃China Net⁃work on Climate Ethics was held on 21 and 22 September 2014 at University of Reading and on 23 September 2014 at the University of Oxford. The five groups of topics were as follow: intergenerational and intra⁃genera⁃tional Climate justice; climate poverty and consumer choice; equity and development; international institutions;new problems and new solutions. There was also extensive discussion on Chinese moral perspective on climate governance between UK and Chinese scholars.

  14. The Fourth World Conference on Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    The Fourth World Conference on Women held in Beijing during September 4-15, 1995, was a major success. The platform for action adopted by consensus at the conference is comprised of the mission statement, a global framework, critical areas of concern, strategic objectives and actions, and institutional and financial arrangements. The conference was an extension of other large international conferences organized under UN initiative over the past 15 years. The Beijing platform of action aims to remove all obstacles to women's active participation in all spheres of public and private life through a full and equal share in economic, social, cultural, and political decision-making. The following concerns were defined by the conference: eradicating poverty, increasing school enrollment and eliminating gender inequalities in access to education, improving access to health care and eliminating gender inequalities in access to services, eliminating violence against women, mitigating the consequences of armed conflicts against women, securing equal access of men and women to economic resources and employment, providing equal participation of men and women in power structures and decision making, enhancing national mechanisms to promote the advancement of women, protecting the rights of girls and women, eradicating stereotypes about women, participating in the management of natural resources and environmental protection, and improving the status of girls.

  15. Fourth generation electron cyclotron resonance ion sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyneis, Claude M; Leitner, D; Todd, D S; Sabbi, G; Prestemon, S; Caspi, S; Ferracin, P

    2008-02-01

    The concepts and technical challenges related to developing a fourth generation electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) ion source with a rf frequency greater than 40 GHz and magnetic confinement fields greater than twice B(ECR) will be explored in this article. Based on the semiempirical frequency scaling of ECR plasma density with the square of operating frequency, there should be significant gains in performance over current third generation ECR ion sources, which operate at rf frequencies between 20 and 30 GHz. While the third generation ECR ion sources use NbTi superconducting solenoid and sextupole coils, the new sources will need to use different superconducting materials, such as Nb(3)Sn, to reach the required magnetic confinement, which scales linearly with rf frequency. Additional technical challenges include increased bremsstrahlung production, which may increase faster than the plasma density, bremsstrahlung heating of the cold mass, and the availability of high power continuous wave microwave sources at these frequencies. With each generation of ECR ion sources, there are new challenges to be mastered, but the potential for higher performance and reduced cost of the associated accelerator continues to make this a promising avenue for development. PMID:18315111

  16. Examination of nuclear systems of fourth generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a detailed discussion of the six nuclear systems selected by the Generation IV International Forum with the objective of coordinating research and development activities which should result in the deployment of nuclear systems (reactors and associated fuel cycle installations) of fourth generation by the second half of the 21. century. These systems are: sodium cooled fast reactors (SFR), very high temperature reactors (VHTR), gas cooled fast reactors (GFR), lead cooled fast reactors (LFR) or lead bismuth eutectic reactors (LBE), molten salt reactors (MSR), and supercritical water reactors (SCWR). Fast systems are interesting as they favour the transmutation of fertile materials into fissile materials. History and perspectives of development, main characteristics, management of safety functions, risk analysis, impact on the environment, radiation protection and decommissioning, concept maturity and R and D needs are discussed for each of these systems. A comparison is reported in terms of main characteristics of reactors, of neutron characteristics and reactivity control, of sensitivity to cooling losses, of confinement function, of exploitation safety, of in-service inspection, of behaviour in case of severe accident, of toxicity of chemical substances, of sensitivity to aggressions (seism), of concept maturity and technological difficulties. The report also proposes a review of the various fuels which can be used in these different systems and which have been considered as eligible by the International Forum: oxides, carbides, nitrides, metals, waste processing. The last part addresses the transmutation of long life radioactive elements: physics, context, assessment of scenarios soundness, influence of transmutation on installations and transports

  17. IAEA research contracts. Fourth annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume represents the fourth annual report on the results obtained under the Agency's research contract programme. During the short life of this programme, which is not quite six years old, a total investment of more than three million dollars has been made to support research in selected fields at institutes in 50 Member States. Extensive summaries are presented herein for all final reports relating to contracts which were completed during 1963. As it is the policy of the Agency to encourage publication in the open scientific literature of the results of work done under research contracts, a number of papers have also appeared in the appropriate journals - the Agency having been notified of 75 such publications in 1963. A complete list of references to these is given at the end of this report. The scientific data presented in the summaries of course remain the responsibility of the contractor. The Agency, however, is responsible for any additional observations. The reports presented are related to research in the field of radioactive waste management and environmental sciences; health physics and radiation protection; radiobiology; nuclear reactors physics and nuclear fuels; radioisotope applications in agriculture and medicine

  18. Neural crest: The fourth germ layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K Shyamala

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The neural crest cells (NCCs, a transient group of cells that emerges from the dorsal aspect of the neural tube during early vertebrate development has been a fascinating group of cells because of its multipotency, long range migration through embryo and its capacity to generate a prodigious number of differentiated cell types. For these reasons, although derived from the ectoderm, the neural crest (NC has been called the fourth germ layer. The non neural ectoderm, the neural plate and the underlying mesoderm are needed for the induction and formation of NC cells. Once formed, NC cells start migrating as a wave of cells, moving away from the neuroepithelium and quickly splitting into distinct streams. These migrating NCCs home in to different regions and give rise to plethora of tissues. Umpteen number of signaling molecules are essential for formation, epithelial mesenchymal transition, delamination, migration and localization of NCC. Authors believe that a clear understanding of steps and signals involved in NC formation, migration, etc., may help in understanding the pathogenesis behind cancer metastasis and many other diseases. Hence, we have taken this review to discuss the various aspects of the NC cells.

  19. Analyses of the predicted changes of the global oceans under the increased greenhouse gases scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MU Lin; WU Dexing; CHEN Xue'en; J Jungclaus

    2006-01-01

    A new climate model (ECHAM5/MPIOM1) developed for the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the climate changes under the different increased CO2 scenarios (B1, A1B and A2). Based on the corresponding model results, the sea surface temperature and salinity structure, the variations of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the changes of sea ice in the northern hemisphere are analyzed. It is concluded that from the year of 2000 to 2100, under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, the global mean sea surface temperatures (SST) would increase by 2.5℃, 3.5℃ and 4.0℃ respectively, especially in the region of the Arctic, the increase of SST would be even above 10.0℃; the maximal negative value of the variation of the fresh water flux is located in the subtropical oceans, while the precipitation in the eastern tropical Pacific increases. The strength of THC decreases under the B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, and the reductions would be about 20%, 25% and 25.1% of the present THC strength respectively. In the northern hemisphere, the area of the sea ice cover would decrease by about 50% under the A1B scenario.

  20. MANAGING PLANET EARTH TO MAKE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT MORE SUSTAINABLE: CLIMATE CHANGE AND HONG KONG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    W.W.-S.Yim; C.D.Ollier

    2009-01-01

    School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia)Selected recent findings related to climate change in Hong Kong include: (1)The Hong Kong seafloor has yielded a ca.0.5-million year record of climate and sea-level changes.(2)Greenhouse gases produced naturally from sub-aerially exposed continental shelves and oceanic islands were a probable forcing mechanism in triggering the abrupt termination of past ice ages. (3)An analysis of annual mean temperature records has revealed that the urban heat island effect has contributed ca.75% of the warming. (4)Past volcanic eruptions are found to lower Hong Kong's temperature and to cause extremely dry and wet years. (5)No evidence can be found for an increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons based on the instrumental record since the end of the Second World War. (6)The observed rate of sea-level rise in the South China Sea is much slower than the predictions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. For the Earth's management, population growth and the depletion of non-renewable resources must be recognized as unsustainable. The human impact on the natural hydrological cycle is an important forcing mechanism in climate change. In order to delay the demise of the human race, management must include curbing population growth and much more waste recycling than at present.

  1. Human Resources Administration: A School-Based Perspective. Fourth Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard

    2009-01-01

    Enhanced and updated, this Fourth Edition of Richard E. Smith's highly successful text examines the growing role of the principal in planning, hiring, staff development, supervision, and other human resource functions. The Fourth Edition includes new sections on ethics, induction, and the role of the mentor teacher. This edition also introduces…

  2. An isolated fourth ventricle in neurosarcoidosis: MRI findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hesselmann, Volker; Terstegge, Klaus; Schulte, Oliver; Krug, Barbara; Lackner, Klaus [Department of Radiology, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany); Wedekind, Christoph [Department of Neurosurgery, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany); Voges, Juergen [Department of Stereotaxy und Functional Neurosurgery, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50924 Cologne (Germany)

    2002-07-01

    We report on an isolated enlargement of the fourth ventricle in a patient with neurosarcoidosis which developed 3 years after the insertion of a ventriculo-atrial shunt. Repeated MRI images were obtained in a patient with known neurosarcoidosis between 1995 and 2000. Imaging findings were correlated to the medical course of the patient, who developed a hydrocephalus and a trapped fourth ventricle consecutively. The isolation was presumably due to granulomatous inflammation of the ependyma surrounding the fourth ventricular outlets. The isolated fourth ventricle was responsible for a deterioration of neurological status. Neurosarcoidosis is a severe complication in sarcoidosis patients. An isolated enlargement of the fourth ventricle is a rare complication in clinically deteriorated patients with neurosarcoidosis and ventricular drainage, which may require neurosurgical treatment. (orig.)

  3. Proceedings: Fourth Workshop on Mining Scientific Datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamath, C

    2001-07-24

    Commercial applications of data mining in areas such as e-commerce, market-basket analysis, text-mining, and web-mining have taken on a central focus in the JCDD community. However, there is a significant amount of innovative data mining work taking place in the context of scientific and engineering applications that is not well represented in the mainstream KDD conferences. For example, scientific data mining techniques are being developed and applied to diverse fields such as remote sensing, physics, chemistry, biology, astronomy, structural mechanics, computational fluid dynamics etc. In these areas, data mining frequently complements and enhances existing analysis methods based on statistics, exploratory data analysis, and domain-specific approaches. On the surface, it may appear that data from one scientific field, say genomics, is very different from another field, such as physics. However, despite their diversity, there is much that is common across the mining of scientific and engineering data. For example, techniques used to identify objects in images are very similar, regardless of whether the images came from a remote sensing application, a physics experiment, an astronomy observation, or a medical study. Further, with data mining being applied to new types of data, such as mesh data from scientific simulations, there is the opportunity to apply and extend data mining to new scientific domains. This one-day workshop brings together data miners analyzing science data and scientists from diverse fields to share their experiences, learn how techniques developed in one field can be applied in another, and better understand some of the newer techniques being developed in the KDD community. This is the fourth workshop on the topic of Mining Scientific Data sets; for information on earlier workshops, see http://www.ahpcrc.org/conferences/. This workshop continues the tradition of addressing challenging problems in a field where the diversity of applications is

  4. IPCC-AR4模式对影响西北太平洋热带气旋的大气动力环境场的气候特征模拟性能%Assessments on climatologic simulation of atmospheric dynamic environment of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in IPCC -AR4 models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余锦华; 赵晓彤; 陈成

    2014-01-01

    评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948-1999年7-9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7-9月低纬地区500 hPa平均高度场、850 hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500 hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850 hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。%The fidelity of atmospheric circulation over tropical regions ,especially subtropical high ,monsoon trough and vertical wind shear over the regions of tropical cyclone activity in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field with that of National Center Environmental Pre-diction(NCEP)/National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) during 1948-1999 from July to September. It is found that vast majority of 23 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state in 500 hPa height field over the domain 0°-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W and 850 hPa wind field over the region 20°S-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W-180°-0°W ,but in comparison to that of NCEP/NCAR ,most of models show a low bias in 500 hPa height

  5. NTFP and REDD at the Fourth World Conservation Congress: What is In and What is Not

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peña Pablo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available While the Fourth World Conservation Congress (WCC was effective in bringing together different participants to discuss climate change, the discussion of potential mitigation mechanisms was dominated by the Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Degradation (REDD initiative, to the exclusion of other possibilities, including Non-timber Forest Products (NTFP-there was a notable lack of venues for discussing the relevance of NTFP projects for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and poverty alleviation. This paper contrasts the treatment of NTFP and REDD at the WCC and discusses how the exclusion of NTFP from these discussions will probably affect its inclusion in the conservation agenda and the future design and funding of conservation projects. The paper also shares some ideas on unexplored complementarities between NTFP and REDD for climate change mitigation, showing that an opportunity was lost at the Fourth WCC for promoting NTFP as an additional market-based approach to conservation.

  6. Le changement climatique d'origine humaine. Rappel de quelques résultats générauxAnthropogenic climate change: general results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Michel

    1999-02-01

    The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) reports have highlighted major results, which constitute a relevant framework for the specific papers in this issue. Both facts established with large confidence level and models results are presented.

  7. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  8. Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

    CERN Document Server

    Laepple, T; Laepple, Thomas; Jewson, Stephen

    2007-01-01

    There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.

  9. Study of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purpose: To evaluate the diagnostic value of cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle by CSF cinema MRI. Materials and methods: Nine patients with intraventricular cysticercosis in the fourth ventricle were studied. The diagnosis was confirmed by surgery in all cases. All of these patients were examined systematically before the operation and studied with CSF cinema MRI in mid sagittal section and finger-gated scan technique. Results: (1) The path of CSF flow was directly displayed. All cysticercosis presented as a filling defect, and a cyst with a smooth wall. (2) The ventricular compliance was normal in cysticercosis. (3) The cysticercosis in active stage was free in the fourth ventricle and could be rolled over, its shape might change slightly within a cardiac cycle. In the degenerative stage, its wall could adhere to the ependyma and obstruct the CSF flow. Conclusion: CSF cinema MRI can demonstrate the degree of obstruction and pattern of CSF flow in cysticercosis of the fourth ventricle, thereby providing useful information for proper management

  10. The endoscopic trans-fourth ventricle aqueductoplasty and stent placement for the treatment of trapped fourth ventricle: Long-term results in a series of 18 consecutive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquale Gallo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Different surgical approaches have been described in the past to treat a trapped fourth ventricle (TFV but, unfortunately, these techniques showed a high rate of dysfunction and complications. During the last 10 years the development of neuroendoscopy has dramatically changed the outcome of these patients. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective evaluation of the safety, effectiveness, and long-term outcome of endoscopic aqueductoplasty and stent placement, performed in 18 consecutive patients with symptomatic TFV through a trans-fourth ventricle approach between 1994 and 2010. Thirteen patients underwent endoscopic aqueductoplasty and stent placement and 5 patients underwent aqueductoplasty alone using a tailored suboccipital approach through the foramen of Magendie in prone or sitting position. Results: The mean age of the patients at the time of surgery was 15.2 years. All patients but 3 had a supratentorial ventriculoperitoneal shunt. Fifteen patients presented with slit supratentorial ventricles. At a mean followup of 90.8 months all patients experienced a stable clinical improvement. Only two complications were observed: A transient diplopia due to dysconjugate eye movements in one patient and a transient trochlear palsy in another one. Conclusions: Our experience and the literature review suggest that endoscopic trans-fourth ventricle aqueductoplasty and stent placement is a minimally invasive, safe, and effective technique for the treatment of TFV and should be strongly recommended, especially in patients with supratentorial slit ventricles.

  11. The radial velocity experiment (RAVE) : Fourth data release

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kordopatis, G.; Gilmore, G.; Steinmetz, M.; Boeche, C.; Seabroke, G. M.; Siebert, A.; Zwitter, T.; Binney, J.; de Laverny, P.; Recio-Blanco, A.; Williams, M. E. K.; Piffl, T.; Enke, H.; Roeser, S.; Bijaoui, A.; Wyse, R. F. G.; Freeman, K.; Munari, U.; Carrillo, I.; Anguiano, B.; Burton, D.; Campbell, R.; Cass, C. J. P.; Fiegert, K.; Hartley, M.; Parker, Q. A.; Reid, W.; Ritter, A.; Russell, K. S.; Stupar, M.; Watson, F. G.; Bienayme, O.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Gerhard, O.; Gibson, B. K.; Grebel, E. K.; Helmi, A.; Navarro, J. F.; Conrad, C.; Famaey, B.; Faure, C.; Just, A.; Kos, J.; Matijevic, G.; McMillan, P. J.; Minchev, I.; Scholz, R.; Sharma, S.; Siviero, A.; de Boer, E. Wylie; Zerjal, M.

    2013-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances, and distances determined for 425,561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). The stellar atm

  12. Solar Energy Technologies Program Newsletter - Fourth Quarter 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program

    2009-12-31

    The Fourth Quarter 2009 edition of the Solar Energy Technologies Program newsletter summarizes the activities for the past three months, funding opportunities, highlights from the national labs, and upcoming events.

  13. The Fourth SM Family Neutrino at Future Linear Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Çiftçi, A K; Sultansoy, S

    2005-01-01

    It is known that Flavor Democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three family fermions Flavor Democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton CKM matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac $(\

  14. Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2011-12-01

    The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

  15. Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

    2016-08-01

    A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

  16. Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

    CERN Document Server

    Chatrchyan, Serguei; Sirunyan, Albert M; Tumasyan, Armen; Adam, Wolfgang; Aguilo, Ernest; Bergauer, Thomas; Dragicevic, Marko; Erö, Janos; Fabjan, Christian; Friedl, Markus; Fruehwirth, Rudolf; Ghete, Vasile Mihai; Hammer, Josef; Hörmann, Natascha; Hrubec, Josef; Jeitler, Manfred; Kiesenhofer, Wolfgang; Knünz, Valentin; Krammer, Manfred; Krätschmer, Ilse; Liko, Dietrich; Mikulec, Ivan; Pernicka, Manfred; Rahbaran, Babak; Rohringer, Christine; Rohringer, Herbert; Schöfbeck, Robert; Strauss, Josef; Taurok, Anton; Waltenberger, Wolfgang; Walzel, Gerhard; Widl, Edmund; Wulz, Claudia-Elisabeth; Mossolov, Vladimir; Shumeiko, Nikolai; Suarez Gonzalez, Juan; Bansal, Monika; Bansal, Sunil; Cornelis, Tom; De Wolf, Eddi A; Janssen, Xavier; Luyckx, Sten; Mucibello, Luca; Ochesanu, Silvia; Roland, Benoit; Rougny, Romain; Selvaggi, Michele; Staykova, Zlatka; Van Haevermaet, Hans; Van Mechelen, Pierre; Van Remortel, Nick; Van Spilbeeck, Alex; Blekman, Freya; Blyweert, Stijn; D'Hondt, Jorgen; Gonzalez Suarez, Rebeca; Kalogeropoulos, Alexis; Maes, Michael; Olbrechts, Annik; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Mulders, Petra; Van Onsem, Gerrit Patrick; Villella, Ilaria; Clerbaux, Barbara; De Lentdecker, Gilles; Dero, Vincent; Gay, Arnaud; Hreus, Tomas; Léonard, Alexandre; Marage, Pierre Edouard; Mohammadi, Abdollah; Reis, Thomas; Thomas, Laurent; Vander Marcken, Gil; Vander Velde, Catherine; Vanlaer, Pascal; Wang, Jian; Adler, Volker; Beernaert, Kelly; Cimmino, Anna; Costantini, Silvia; Garcia, Guillaume; Grunewald, Martin; Klein, Benjamin; Lellouch, Jérémie; Marinov, Andrey; Mccartin, Joseph; Ocampo Rios, Alberto Andres; Ryckbosch, Dirk; Strobbe, Nadja; Thyssen, Filip; Tytgat, Michael; Verwilligen, Piet; Walsh, Sinead; Yazgan, Efe; Zaganidis, Nicolas; Basegmez, Suzan; Bruno, Giacomo; Castello, Roberto; Ceard, Ludivine; Delaere, Christophe; Du Pree, Tristan; Favart, Denis; Forthomme, Laurent; Giammanco, Andrea; Hollar, Jonathan; Lemaitre, Vincent; Liao, Junhui; Militaru, Otilia; Nuttens, Claude; Pagano, Davide; Pin, Arnaud; Piotrzkowski, Krzysztof; Schul, Nicolas; Vizan Garcia, Jesus Manuel; Beliy, Nikita; Caebergs, Thierry; Daubie, Evelyne; Hammad, Gregory Habib; Alves, Gilvan; Correa Martins Junior, Marcos; De Jesus Damiao, Dilson; Martins, Thiago; Pol, Maria Elena; Henrique Gomes E Souza, Moacyr; Aldá Júnior, Walter Luiz; Carvalho, Wagner; Custódio, Analu; Da Costa, Eliza Melo; De Oliveira Martins, Carley; Fonseca De Souza, Sandro; Matos Figueiredo, Diego; Mundim, Luiz; Nogima, Helio; Oguri, Vitor; Prado Da Silva, Wanda Lucia; Santoro, Alberto; Soares Jorge, Luana; Sznajder, Andre; Souza Dos Anjos, Tiago; Bernardes, Cesar Augusto; De Almeida Dias, Flavia; Tomei, Thiago; De Moraes Gregores, Eduardo; Lagana, Caio; Da Cunha Marinho, Franciole; Mercadante, Pedro G; Novaes, Sergio F; Padula, Sandra; Genchev, Vladimir; Iaydjiev, Plamen; Piperov, Stefan; Rodozov, Mircho; Stoykova, Stefka; Sultanov, Georgi; Tcholakov, Vanio; Trayanov, Rumen; Vutova, Mariana; Dimitrov, Anton; Hadjiiska, Roumyana; Kozhuharov, Venelin; Litov, Leander; Pavlov, Borislav; Petkov, Peicho; Bian, Jian-Guo; Chen, Guo-Ming; Chen, He-Sheng; Jiang, Chun-Hua; Liang, Dong; Liang, Song; Meng, Xiangwei; Tao, Junquan; Wang, Jian; Wang, Xianyou; Wang, Zheng; Xiao, Hong; Xu, Ming; Zang, Jingjing; Zhang, Zhen; Asawatangtrakuldee, Chayanit; Ban, Yong; Guo, Shuang; Guo, Yifei; Li, Wenbo; Liu, Shuai; Mao, Yajun; Qian, Si-Jin; Teng, Haiyun; Wang, Dayong; Zhang, Linlin; Zhu, Bo; Zou, Wei; Avila, Carlos; Gomez, Juan Pablo; Gomez Moreno, Bernardo; Osorio Oliveros, Andres Felipe; Sanabria, Juan Carlos; Godinovic, Nikola; Lelas, Damir; Plestina, Roko; Polic, Dunja; Puljak, Ivica; Antunovic, Zeljko; Kovac, Marko; Brigljevic, Vuko; Duric, Senka; Kadija, Kreso; Luetic, Jelena; Morovic, Srecko; Attikis, Alexandros; Galanti, Mario; Mavromanolakis, Georgios; Mousa, Jehad; Nicolaou, Charalambos; Ptochos, Fotios; Razis, Panos A; Finger, Miroslav; Finger Jr, Michael; Assran, Yasser; Elgammal, Sherif; Ellithi Kamel, Ali; Khalil, Shaaban; Mahmoud, Mohammed; Radi, Amr; Kadastik, Mario; Müntel, Mait; Raidal, Martti; Rebane, Liis; Tiko, Andres; Eerola, Paula; Fedi, Giacomo; Voutilainen, Mikko; Härkönen, Jaakko; Heikkinen, Mika Aatos; Karimäki, Veikko; Kinnunen, Ritva; Kortelainen, Matti J; Lampén, Tapio; Lassila-Perini, Kati; Lehti, Sami; Lindén, Tomas; Luukka, Panja-Riina; Mäenpää, Teppo; Peltola, Timo; Tuominen, Eija; Tuominiemi, Jorma; Tuovinen, Esa; Ungaro, Donatella; Wendland, Lauri; Banzuzi, Kukka; Karjalainen, Ahti; Korpela, Arja; Tuuva, Tuure; Besancon, Marc; Choudhury, Somnath

    2012-01-01

    Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up- and down-type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant CKM matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. This result significantly reduces the allowed parameter space for a fourt...

  17. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. Methodological Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science. 25 refs

  18. New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Lutz

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3. We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making

  19. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  20. Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

    2008-12-01

    peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

  1. Climate Change 2013. The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Abstract for decision-makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive scientific and technical literature. The assessment considers new evidence of past, present and projected future climate change based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleo-climate archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. During the process of scoping and approving the outline of its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC focussed on those aspects of the current understanding of the science of climate change that were judged to be most relevant to policy-makers. In this report, Working Group I has extended coverage of future climate change compared to earlier reports by assessing near-term projections and predictability as well as long-term projections and irreversibility in two separate chapters. Following the decisions made by the Panel during the scoping and outline approval, a set of new scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways, are used across all three Working Groups for projections of climate change over the 21. century. The coverage of regional information in the Working Group I report is expanded by specifically assessing climate phenomena such as monsoon systems and their relevance to future climate change in the regions. The Working Group I Report is an assessment, not a review or a text book of climate science, and is based on the published scientific and technical literature available up to 15 March 2013. Underlying all aspects of the report is a

  2. Costing issues for mitigation and adaptation to climate change: what policy makers need

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estrada-Oyuele, R.A. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Argentine Republic, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2000-07-01

    As a supreme body on climate change, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) discusses related issues in conventions and originates scientific information which are needed by policy makers. This article highlights the problems usually faced by IPCC in originating such information. The author critically assesses the problems faces by climate change policy markers. He suggests that the scientific community should be actively involved in climate change policy formulation rather than providing warning against the risk of climate change. Plain language and clarity in preparing IPCC reports will improve the general understanding of the assessment. The author also points out that proliferation of scenarios is another source of many problems for policy makers. He argues out that the scenarios should be organized and presented according to some order of probability, as there is a tendency to confuse scenarios with forecasting.

  3. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  4. Multinational enterprises and climate change strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is often perceived as the most pressing environmental problem of our time, as reflected in the large public, policy, and corporate attention it has received, and the concerns expressed about the (potential) consequences. Particularly due to temperature increases, climate change affects physical and biological systems by changing ecosystems and causing extinction of species, and is expected to have a negative social impact and adversely affect human health (IPCC, 2007). Moreover...

  5. Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w*(tau) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to tau. Using information on the distributions for temperature change and economic impact from studies assembled by the IPCC and from "integrated assessment models" (IAMs), I fit displaced gamm...

  6. Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor of the fourth ventricle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-chun ZHAO

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective To explore the clinicopathological features of rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor (RGNT of the fourth ventricle.  Methods The clinical manifestations, neuroimaging, histopathological and immunohistochemical features were analysed in one case of RGNT of the fourth ventricle, and related literatures were reviewed.  Results A 24-year-old female presented with progressive dizziness under no obvious predisposing causes and dyskinesia such as stumbling. MRI revealed expansion of the fourth ventricle, and a mass with long T1WI and T2WI signal and clear boundary could be seen within the fourth ventricle. The border of tumor showed slight enhancement. At surgery, it was observed that the solitary tumor arised from the fourth ventricle and appeared well demarcated with rhomboid fossa. The tumor was blocking the aqueduct of sylvius before it was removed. Microscopically, the tumor exhibited both neuronic and astrocytic components. In the neuronic components, neurocytes formed neurocytic rosettes and perivascular pseudorosettes. At the center of the neurocytic rosettes, there was an eosinophilic core and some region consisted of microcysts. While the astrocytic components of the tumor revealed typical pilocytic astrocytoma structure. The center of neuronic rosettes and perivascular pseudorosettes displayed strong positive staining with synaptophysin (Syn and oligodendrocytes transcription factor-2 (Olig-2. The astrocytic components showed positive immunostaining of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP. There were focal and partial positive immunostaining of neuron-specific enolase (NSE in both components of the tumor. The Ki-67 labeling index was 1.50%-2.00% in two components.  Conclusions Rosette-forming glioneuronal tumor of the fourth ventricle is an unusual neuronal and mixed neuronal-glial tumors. The imaging examination showed solid or mixed solid-cystic mass at the fourth ventricle with well demarcated border. The lesion has two

  7. Tropical cyclones and climate change; Les cyclones tropicaux et le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, J.C. [Centre Europeen de Recherches Avancees en Calcul Scientifique, 31 - Toulouse (France); Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F. [Meteo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique (CNRM), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-09-15

    Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

  8. Effects of Climate Change on Urban Rainwater Harvesting in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwong Fai A. Lo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to water-related issues due to rapid urbanization, installation of complex infrastructure and changes in rainfall patterns. This study aims at assessing the impacts of climate change on rainwater harvesting systems (RWH in the tropical urban city, Colombo, Sri Lanka. The future climate change projections are downscaled from global circulation models to the urban catchment scale using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG, described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, coupled with Inter Comparison Project (CMIP3 model results. Historical rainfall data from 1981–2010 is used to simulate long-term future rainfall data from 2011–2099. The percentage change of the rainfall is calculated. The rainfall patterns are analyzed based on the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. Water requirements are calculated based on the selected scenario types. Rainfall and water demand data are incorporated into a water balance model. Climate change impacts for the selected RWH scenarios are calculated based on the water security analysis for each scenario. Analysis of the future rainfall data of Colombo reveals that several extreme weather events with very heavy rainfall may occur in the future. However, the frequency of these big events may not occur too often. Most of the selected global circulation models (GCMs in this study predict that there will be more rainfall towards the end of this century (2080-2099. Residential RWH systems will be more affected than non-residential systems. RWH systems in Colombo should include potential future climate changes in their future design and planning and be prepared for excess runoff and additional measures against potential overflow and urban floods.

  9. Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on State Maritime Strategy%全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李倩; 张韧; 金生龙; 徐海斌

    2011-01-01

    Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the paper generalizes the ocean responses to the global climate change, and then the influence mechanism of climate change on state maritime strategy is studied and expounded. The analysis shows that the climate change influences state maritime strategy in two steps. First, the climate change causes natural responses through physical mechanism, and then the environmental changes cause several social responses through social mechanism.%基于IPCC第四次评估报告中海洋对气候变化的响应,探讨了全球气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响机制。分析表明,气候变化对国家海洋战略的影响体现在两个阶段,即气候变化通过物理机制引起自然生态系统响应阶段和自然环境演变通过社会机制引起社会响应阶段。

  10. Dark Coulomb binding of heavy neutrinos of fourth family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belotsky, K. M.; Esipova, E. A.; Khlopov, M. Yu.; Laletin, M. N.

    2015-11-01

    Direct dark matter searches put severe constraints on the weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs). These constraints cause serious troubles for the model of stable neutrino of fourth generation with mass around 50GeV. Though the calculations of primordial abundance of these particles make them in the charge symmetric case a sparse subdominant component of the modern dark matter, their presence in the universe would exceed the current upper limits by several orders of the magnitude. However, if quarks and leptons of fourth generation possess their own Coulomb-like y-interaction, recombination of pairs of heavy neutrinos and antineutrinos and their annihilation in the “neutrinium” atoms can play important role in their cosmological evolution, reducing their modern abundance far below the experimental upper limits. The model of stable fourth generation assumes that the dominant part of dark matter is explained by excessive Ū antiquarks, forming (ŪŪŪ)-- charged clusters, bound with primordial helium in nuclear-interacting O-helium (OHe) dark atoms. The y charge conservation implies generation of the same excess of fourth generation neutrinos, potentially dangerous WIMP component of this scenario. We show that due to y-interaction recombination of fourth neutrinos with OHe hides these WIMPs from direct WIMP searches, leaving the negligible fraction of free neutrinos, what makes their existence compatible with the experimental constraints.

  11. Fourth standard model family neutrino at future linear colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is known that flavor democracy favors the existence of the fourth standard model (SM) family. In order to give nonzero masses for the first three-family fermions flavor democracy has to be slightly broken. A parametrization for democracy breaking, which gives the correct values for fundamental fermion masses and, at the same time, predicts quark and lepton Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrices in a good agreement with the experimental data, is proposed. The pair productions of the fourth SM family Dirac (ν4) and Majorana (N1) neutrinos at future linear colliders with √(s)=500 GeV, 1 TeV, and 3 TeV are considered. The cross section for the process e+e-→ν4ν4(N1N1) and the branching ratios for possible decay modes of the both neutrinos are determined. The decays of the fourth family neutrinos into muon channels (ν4(N1)→μ±W±) provide cleanest signature at e+e- colliders. Meanwhile, in our parametrization this channel is dominant. W bosons produced in decays of the fourth family neutrinos will be seen in detector as either di-jets or isolated leptons. As an example, we consider the production of 200 GeV mass fourth family neutrinos at √(s)=500 GeV linear colliders by taking into account di-muon plus four jet events as signatures

  12. Internet usage of fourth-grader primary school pupils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kristof Nagy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The development of information and communication technologies has resulted in revolutionary changes, which seem to continue in economy, society and many areas of life. The most important resource of the new social structure emerging as a result of technologies is information, thus the development of human capacity related to the use of information is extremely important. It may not be easy for parents and teachers to face the fact that the majority of their children/pupils know more about cyberspace than themselves. But are primary school pupils really better versed? Does digital literacy indeed automatically evolve? Does the use of the internet by all means improve children’s academic performance? In our current study we are researching how primary school pupils in the easternmost part of Hungary use the internet, and what effects it has on their studies. We would also like to emphasize the role of teachers working at the lower grades of the primary school in the formation of pupils’ digital literacy. In 2013 190 fourth-grader primary school pupils of eight schools filled in our questionnaire. Based on the data negative correlation was found between the time spent on web browsing and the academic average. Analysis of variance also revealed that those pupils have a higher academic average whose parents regularly check the purpose of their children’s internet usage. Our research results showed that the pupils who use the internet and the library equally to search for new information have a higher academic average compared to those pupils who only make use of either the traditional or the online option only. The most important result of the research is that in the case of adequate parental or professional (teacher control internet may have fruitful effects on pupils’ studies, but in the lack of such control the opposite is more likely.

  13. Global climate change: an unequivocal reality; Cambio climatico global: una realidad inequivoca

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynal-Villasenor, J.A. [Universidad de las Americas, Puebla, Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: josea.raynal@udlap.mx

    2011-10-15

    During several years, a long discussion has taken place over the reality of global climate change phenomenon and, if there is one, what could be its cause. Once the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC, 2007) - IPCC is part the United Nations Organization (UN) - was published, it was stated that there is a developing global climatic change and that the cause is unequivocally related with the human activity in the planet Earth. In this paper, relevant information is given about the development of global climatic change issues and some actions are mentioned that each human being of this planet can implement to mitigate it, since it has been accepted that it's impossible to stop it. [Spanish] Durante varios anos se ha discutido si existe un cambio climatico global y, si lo hay, cual es su causa. Una vez publicado el 4o. Reporte de Valoracion del Panel Intergubernamental sobre Cambio Climatico (IPCC, 2007) - el IPCC es parte de la Organizacion de las Naciones Unidas (ONU) - se preciso que hay un cambio climatico global en desarrollo y la causa inequivoca que lo esta produciendo es la actividad humana en el planeta Tierra, tambien se hablo en el IPCC de las causas naturales por las cuales el planeta se esta calentando. En el presente articulo, se da informacion relevante al cambio climatico global en desarrollo y se mencionan algunas acciones que cada ser humano de este planeta puede implementar para mitigarlo, ya que es imposible detenerlo.

  14. Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutledge, D.

    2008-12-01

    The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional

  15. Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guemas, Virginie [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France); CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR 1572, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Salas-Melia, David [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France)

    2008-06-15

    Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback. (orig.)

  16. Temporal stability of the Dutch version of the Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV-NL)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouman, Z.; Hendriks, M.P.H.; Aldenkamp, A.P.; Kessels, R.P.C.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The Wechsler Memory Scale - Fourth Edition (WMS-IV) is one of the most widely used memory batteries. We examined the test–retest reliability, practice effects, and standardized regression-based (SRB) change norms for the Dutch version of the WMS-IV (WMS-IV-NL) after both short and long re

  17. Bergman kernel function on Hua construction of the fourth type

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper introduces the Hua construction and presents the holomorphic automorphism group of the Hua construction of the fourth type. Utilizing the Bergman kernel function, under the condition of holomorphic automorphism and the standard complete orthonormal system of the semi-Reinhardt domain, the infinite series form of the Bergman kernel function is derived. By applying the properties of polynomial and Γ functions, various identification relations of the aforementioned form are developed and the explicit formula of the Bergman kernel function for the Hua construction of the fourth type is obtained, which suggest that many of the previously-reported results are only the special cases of our findings.

  18. Towards Reviving Electroweak Baryogenesis with a Fourth Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Shu Hou

    2013-01-01

    universe. However, it does not work within the standard model due to two reasons: (1 the strength of CP violation from the Kobayashi-Maskawa mechanism with three generations is too small; (2 the electroweak phase transition is not first order for the experimentally allowed Higgs boson mass. We discuss possibilities to solve these problems by introducing a fourth generation of fermions and how electroweak baryogenesis might be revived. We also discuss briefly the recent observation of a Higgs-like boson with mass around 125 GeV, which puts the fourth generation in a difficult situation, and the possible way out.

  19. The effect of climate change and natural variability on wind loading values for buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Koster, T.; Geurts, C.P.W.

    2012-01-01

    Since 2006, a number of countries developed reports on climate change following the IPCC 4th assessment reports. For the Netherlands, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) presented four new climate scenarios. Typically, climate change is described in terms of average changes, but mu

  20. A Search for the Fourth SM Family: Tevatron still has a Chance

    CERN Document Server

    Sahin, M; Turkoz, S

    2010-01-01

    Existence of the fourth family follows from the basics of the Standard Model. We discuss possible manifestations of the fourth SM family at existing and future colliders. The LHC and Tevatron potentials to discover the fourth SM family have been compared. The scenario with dominance of the anomalous decay modes of the fourth family quarks has been considered in details.

  1. Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Wamsler, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Urban communities will face increased risks, such as floods, landslides, heat stress and fires and water scarcity, as a consequence of climate change. The latest IPCC report (AR5) has for the first time devoted a whole chapter to urban areas. The assessment stresses the need to tackle urban risk through more effective adaptation planning.

  2. Fourth Generation Instructional Design Model: An Elaboration on Authoring Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Dean L.

    This paper presents the updated (fourth generation) version of the instructional design (ID) model, noting its emphasis on a scientific, iterative approach based upon research and theory in learning and instruction and upon applied development experience. Another important trend toward a scientific approach to instructional design is the increased…

  3. Integrating Fourth-Generation Tools Into the Applications Development Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litaker, R. G.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Much of the power of the "information center" comes from its ability to effectively use fourth-generation productivity tools to provide information processing services. A case study of the use of these tools at Western Michigan University is presented. (Author/MLW)

  4. Installing an Integrated System and a Fourth-Generation Language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridenour, David; Ferguson, Linda

    1987-01-01

    In the spring of 1986 Indiana State University converted to the Series Z software of Information Associates, an IBM mainframe, and Information Builders' FOCUS fourth-generation language. The beginning of the planning stage to product selection, training, and implementation is described. (Author/MLW)

  5. Transactions of the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Genk, M.S.; Hoover, M.D. (eds.)

    1987-01-01

    This paper contains the presented papers at the fourth symposium on space nuclear power systems. Topics of these papers include: space nuclear missions and applications, reactors and shielding, nuclear electric and nuclear propulsion, refractory alloys and high-temperature materials, instrumentation and control, energy conversion and storage, space nuclear fuels, thermal management, nuclear safety, simulation and modeling, and multimegawatt system concepts. (LSP)

  6. Constraints on Majorana dark matter from a fourth lepton family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hapola, T.; Jarvinen, M.; Kouvaris, C.;

    2014-01-01

    We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC...... account for the dark matter abundance....

  7. Dietary Behaviors among Fourth Graders: A Social Cognitive Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, Sara J.; Sargent, Roger G.; Rheaume, Carol E.; Saunders, Ruth P.

    1999-01-01

    Examined the impact of behavioral, personal, and environmental factors on fourth graders' dietary practices, using a social cognitive theory framework. Survey results highlighted social cognitive variables that significantly influenced dietary behaviors: gender, race, socioeconomic status, fruit and vegetable availability at home, nutrition…

  8. Fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-01

    The fourth annual conference on materials for coal conversion and utilization was held October 9 to 11, 1979, at the National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland. It was sponsored by the National Bureau of Standards, the Electric Power Research Institute, the US Department of Energy, and the Gas Research Institute. The papers have been entered individually into EDB and ERA. (LTN)

  9. Fourth annual report to Congress, Federal Alternative Motor Fuels Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-01

    This annual report to Congress presents the current status of the alternative fuel vehicle programs being conducted across the country in accordance with the Alternative Motor Fuels Act of 1988. These programs, which represent the most comprehensive data collection effort ever undertaken on alternative fuels, are beginning their fifth year. This report summarizes tests and results from the fourth year.

  10. Fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary-value problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Leszczynski

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article we consider the fourth-order discrete anisotropic boundary value problem with both advance and retardation. We apply the direct method of the calculus of variations and the mountain pass technique to prove the existence of at least one and at least two solutions. Non-existence of non-trivial solutions is also undertaken.

  11. Image Inpainting Using a Fourth-Order Total Variation Flow

    OpenAIRE

    Schönlieb, Carola-Bibiane; Bertozzi, Andrea; Burger, Martin; He, Lin

    2009-01-01

    International audience We introduce a fourth-order total variation flow for image inpainting proposed in [5]. The well-posedness of this new inpainting model is discussed and its efficient numerical realization via an unconditionally stable solver developed in [15] is presented.

  12. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  13. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU YanNan; JIAN HuaiYu

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow,which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells.We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2,the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  14. Did that Dog Sniff Violate the Fourth Amendment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawke, Catherine; Middleton, Tiffany

    2012-01-01

    Is sniffing at the front door of a private home by a trained narcotics detection dog a Fourth Amendment search requiring probable cause? Is a "drug dog" somehow like a manmade technology, such as a thermal imaging device? These were a couple of the questions recently presented to the U.S. Supreme Court during arguments in "Florida v. Jardines."…

  15. North Carolina Tales Fly with Fourth Grade Tellers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westman, Gretchen Daub

    2008-01-01

    In fourth grade, North Carolina students are required to write their own personal narratives. The teachers felt that telling a story would be a great stepping stone toward writing one. Rather than focusing on grammar and the mechanics of writing, students could focus on story development and creativity. In this article, the author describes how…

  16. Engineering alumni present fourth $10,000 prize

    OpenAIRE

    Nystrom, Lynn A.

    2005-01-01

    A group of seven Virginia Tech alumni, in conjunction with the university's College of Engineering, has awarded its fourth $10,000 prize to university's Department of Computer Science in recognition of improvements to the department's Ph.D. program during the past year.

  17. Discrimination Evidence for Examining Fourth Grade Students' Learning Disability Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Abdulhameed S.; Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S.

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the ability of discriminate variables (perceptual-motor, hyperactivity disorder, neurological and psychological skills) to distinguish between normal (n = 68) and students with learning disabilities (n = 72) in fourth grade. Three instruments were developed: perceptual-motor scale, hyperactivity disorder scale, skills test…

  18. The Value of the Fourth Year of Mathematics. Math Works

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieve, Inc., 2013

    2013-01-01

    Too many students and educators view the senior year and graduation from high school as an end point, rather than one vital step along the education pipeline. Students who engage in a fourth year of math tap into and build upon their advanced analytic skills and are more likely to have better success in postsecondary course work, as they have…

  19. Gender Differences in Inference Generation by Fourth-Grade Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton, Virginia; Seipel, Ben; Broek, Paul; McMaster, Kristen L.; Kendeou, Panayiota; Carlson, Sarah E.; Rapp, David N.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if there are gender differences among elementary school-aged students in regard to the inferences they generate during reading. Fourth-grade students (130 females; 126 males) completed think-aloud tasks while reading one practice and one experimental narrative text. Females generated a larger number and a…

  20. A curve flow evolved by a fourth order parabolic equation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We study a fourth order curve flow, which is the gradient flow of a functional describing the shapes of human red blood cells. We prove that for any smooth closed initial curve in R2, the flow has a smooth solution for all time and the solution subconverges to a critical point of the functional.

  1. Climate change: The necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockstrom, J.; Brasseur, G; Hoskins, B.; Lucht, W.; Schellnhuber, J.; P. Kabat; Nakicenovic, N.; P. Gong; P. Schlosser; Costa, M; Humble, A.; Eyre, N.; Gleick, P.; James, R.; Lucena, A.

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  2. Climate change: the necessary, the possible and the desirable Earth League climate statement on the implications for climate policy from the 5th IPCC Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Rockström, Johan; Brasseur, Guy; Hoskins, Brian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schellnhuber, John; Kabat, Pavel; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Gong, Peng; Schlosser, Peter; Máñez Costa, Maria; Humble, April; Eyre, Nick; Gleick, Peter; James, Rachel; Lucena, Andre

    2014-01-01

    The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitio...

  3. The changing world of climate change: Oregon leads the states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Following on the heels of recent national and international developments in climate change policy, Oregon's open-quote best-of-batch close-quote proceeding has validated the use of CO2 offsets as a cost-effective means of advancing climate change mitigation goals. The proceeding was a first in several respects and represents a record commitment of funds to CO2 mitigation by a private entity. In December 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued its Second Assessment Report. The IPCC's conclusion that open-quotes[t]he balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climateclose quotes fundamentally changed the tenor of the policy debate regarding potential threats associated with global climate change. At the Climate Change Convention's Conference of the Parties (COP) in Geneva in July 1996, most countries, including the United States, advocated adopting the IPCC report as the basis for swift policy movement toward binding international emissions targets. The next COP, in December 1997, is scheduled to be the venue for the signing of a treaty protocol incorporating such targets. Binding targets would have major consequences for power plant operators in the US and around the world. Recent developments in the state of Oregon show the kinds of measures that may become commonplace at the state level in addressing climate change mitigation. First, Oregon recently completed the first administrative proceeding in the US aimed at offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions of a new power plant. Second, a legislatively mandated energy facility siting task force recently recommended that Oregon adopt a carbon dioxide (CO2) standard for new power plant construction and drop use of the open-quotes need for powerclose quotes standard. This article reviews these two policy milestones and their implications for climate change mitigation in the United States

  4. Climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere based on the use of an atmosphere-ocean IPCC model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forced and natural variability of modelled and observed Atlantic Ocean temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is studied. In the observations and in a forced climate model run, we find increasing temperature at 1000m in the Atlantic (20N). SVD analysis shows that, for both model data and observations, a high index of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) correspond to negative temperature anomaly at 1000m to the north of 55N, although geographical details of temperature anomaly distribution are different for the model and observations. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of the fresh water flux due to the present global warming on the slowing down of the AMOC. It is shown that fresh water flux change is only a secondary cause of reduced AMOC in global warming conditions, while heat flux change is probably the main reason. Finally, it is shown that internal model AMOC variability is positively correlated with the near-surface air temperature in Atlantic-European Arctic sector on a 10-year time scale.

  5. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  6. Methotrexate administration directly into the fourth ventricle in children with malignant fourth ventricular brain tumors: a pilot clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandberg, David I; Rytting, Michael; Zaky, Wafik; Kerr, Marcia; Ketonen, Leena; Kundu, Uma; Moore, Bartlett D; Yang, Grace; Hou, Ping; Sitton, Clark; Cooper, Laurence J; Gopalakrishnan, Vidya; Lee, Dean A; Thall, Peter F; Khatua, Soumen

    2015-10-01

    We hypothesize that chemotherapy can be safely administered directly into the fourth ventricle to treat recurrent malignant brain tumors in children. For the first time in humans, methotrexate was infused into the fourth ventricle in children with recurrent, malignant brain tumors. A catheter was surgically placed into the fourth ventricle and attached to a ventricular access device. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) flow was confirmed by CINE MRI postoperatively. Each cycle consisted of 4 consecutive daily methotrexate infusions (2 milligrams). Disease response was monitored with serial MRI scans and CSF cytologic analysis. Trough CSF methotrexate levels were sampled. Five patients (3 with medulloblastoma and 2 with ependymoma) received 18, 18, 12, 9, and 3 cycles, respectively. There were no serious adverse events or new neurological deficits attributed to methotrexate. Two additional enrolled patients were withdrawn prior to planned infusions due to rapid disease progression. Median serum methotrexate level 4 h after infusion was 0.04 µmol/L. Range was 0.02-0.13 µmol/L. Median trough CSF methotrexate level 24 h after infusion was 3.18 µmol/L (range 0.53-212.36 µmol/L). All three patients with medulloblastoma had partial response or stable disease until one patient had progressive disease after cycle 18. Both patients with ependymoma had progressive disease after 9 and 3 cycles, respectively. Low-dose methotrexate can be infused into the fourth ventricle without causing neurological toxicity. Some patients with recurrent medulloblastoma experience a beneficial anti-tumor effect both within the fourth ventricle and at distant sites.

  7. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  8. Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Sangjae [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Anwoo [Korea Environment Corporation, 42 Hwangyeong-ro, Seo-gu, Incheon 404-170 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Seung-Muk [Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Young, E-mail: jaeykim@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.

  9. facing the challenges of climate change and food security : the role of research, extension and communication for development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwis, C.; Hall, A.; Weperen, van W.; Preissing, J.

    2013-01-01

    In line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this study defines climate change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This report is a shortened version of the final study report, produced on request of FAO. The p

  10. The fourth edition of the ASP took place in Kigali

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2016-01-01

    The fourth biennial African School of Fundamental Physics and Applications (ASP) took place on 1-19 August in Africa’s cleanest city, Kigali in Rwanda.   The students of the fourth African School of Fundamental Physics and Applications pose for the traditional conference group picture. Many lecturers flew in from CERN to give lectures and mentor students. (Photo: Gilbert Tekoute) Seventy-five students from around the African continent, chosen from 439 applicants, were hosted in the University of Rwanda’s College of Sciences and Technology for about 3 weeks. The school received financial support from CERN and 19 other institutions in total, including the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Brookhaven National Laboratory, the South African National Research Foundation and Department of Technology, the Rwandan Ministry of Education, INFN, and other major particle physics laboratories, as well as governmental institutions in Africa, Europe and the United States....

  11. Spinal accessory nerve schwannomas masquerading as a fourth ventricular lesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shyam Sundar Krishnan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Schwannomas are benign lesions that arise from the nerve sheath of cranial nerves. The most common schwannomas arise from the 8 th cranial nerve (the vestibulo-cochlear nerve followed by trigeminal and facial nerves and then from glossopharyngeal, vagus, and spinal accessory nerves. Schwannomas involving the oculomotor, trochlear, abducens and hypoglossal nerves are very rare. We report a very unusual spinal accessory nerve schwannoma which occupied the fourth ventricle and extended inferiorly to the upper cervical canal. The radiological features have been detailed. The diagnostic dilemma was due to its midline posterior location mimicking a fourth ventricular lesion like medulloblastoma and ependymoma. Total excision is the ideal treatment for these tumors. A brief review of literature with tabulations of the variants has been listed.

  12. Estimation of the fourth-order dispersion coefficient β4

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing Huang; Jianquan Yao

    2012-01-01

    The fourth-order dispersion coefficient of fibers are estimated by the iterations around the third-order dispersion and the high-order nonlinear items in the nonlinear Schordinger equation solved by Green's function approach.Our theoretical evaluation demonstrates that the fourth-order dispersion coefficient slightly varies with distance.The fibers also record β4 values of about 0.002,0.003,and 0.00032 ps4/km for SMF,NZDSF and DCF,respectively.In the zero-dispersion regime,the high-order nonlinear effect (higher than self-steepening) has a strong impact on the transmitted short pulse.This red-shifts accelerates the symmetrical split of the pulse,although this effect is degraded rapidly with the increase of β2.Thus,the contributions to β4 of SMF,NZDSF,and DCF can be neglected.

  13. New Efficient Fourth Order Method for Solving Nonlinear Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farooq Ahmad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In a paper [Appl. Math. Comput., 188 (2 (2007 1587--1591], authors have suggested and analyzed a method for solving nonlinear equations. In the present work, we modified this method by using the finite difference scheme, which has a quintic convergence. We have compared this modified Halley method with some other iterative of fifth-orders convergence methods, which shows that this new method having convergence of fourth order, is efficient.

  14. Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects

    OpenAIRE

    Gsponer, Andre

    2005-01-01

    The paper begins with a general introduction and update to Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons (FGNW), and then addresses some particularly important military aspects on which there has been only limited public discussion so far. These aspects concern the unique military characteristics of FGNWs which make them radically different from both nuclear weapons based on previous-generation nuclear-explosives and from conventional weapons based on chemical-explosives: yields in the 1 to 100 tons rang...

  15. Proceedings of the fourth workshop on grand unification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weldon, H.A.; Langacker, P.; Steinhardt, P.J.

    1983-01-01

    This book compiles the papers presented at the fourth conference of grand unified theories of nuclear physics held in University of Pennsylvania April 1983. The topics covered were proton decay theory; angular distribution and flux of atmospheric neutrinos; atmospheric neutrinos and astrophysical neutrinos in proton decay experiments; review of future nucleon decay experiments; monopole experiments; searches for magnetic monopole; monopoles, gauge, fields and anomalies; darkmatter, galaxies and voids; adiabatic fluctuations; supersymmetry, supergravity, and Kaluza-Klein theories; superstring theory and superunification.

  16. Fourth Beijing Human Rights Forum Held in Beijing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUR STAFF REPORTER

    2012-01-01

    The Fourth Beijing Forum on Human Rights was held in Beijing from September 21-23,2011.Jointly sponsored by the China Society for Human Rights Studies and the China Human Rights Development Foundation,the forum was centered on the theme of "Cultural Tradition,Concept of Values and Human Rights." Attending were nearly 100senior human rights officials,specialists and scholars from 26 countries and regions as well as the United Nations and other international organizations.

  17. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Fourth Quarter FY-04

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Wheeler, Mark; Lambert, Winifred; Case, Jonathan; Short, David

    2004-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (A MU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2004 (July -Sept 2004). Tasks covered are: (1) Objective Lightning Probability Forecast: Phase I, (2) Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid, (3) Hail Index, (4) Shuttle Ascent Camera Cloud Obstruction Forecast, (5) Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Optimization and Training Extension and (5) User Control Interface for ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS) Data Ingest.

  18. Pseudo-randomness of the fourth class of GSS sequences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HU Yupu; XIAO Guozhen

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses pseudo-randomness of a periodic sequence, named the fourth class of GSS sequence. We get the ollowing results: ① Its least period always reaches the maximum (that is, 2n-1). ② Its least period and linear complexity keep robust under single-symbol-substitution. ③ It has good Iow-degree-auto-correlation feature. ④It has good short-length-run-distribution.

  19. Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

    <正>The Fourth China-South Asia International Cultural Forum on "revitalizing people-to-people cultural exchanges for peace and prosperity",co-sponsored by the CPAFFC and Shenzhen University,was held in Shenzhen from November 14 to 17,2012. More than 60 experts and scholars from over 40 Chinese research institutes and their colleagues from India,the United States and Singapore engaged in in-depth discussions on economic cooperation and cultural development,the present condi-

  20. A rare case of fourth consecutive fallopian tube ectopic pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Pandey

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We present a case of consecutive fourth tubal ectopic in a patient which was managed by emergency laparotomy and salpingectomy. The first two tubal ectopic pregnancies occurred on the right side while the subsequent two occurred on the contralateral side. The patient was planned for IVF-ET. [Int J Reprod Contracept Obstet Gynecol 2015; 4(2.000: 490-492

  1. The Fourth Attempt to Construct a Politics of Welfare Obligations

    OpenAIRE

    Fitzpatrick, Tony

    2005-01-01

    Since the 1980s there have been three main attempts to ground citizenship upon the principles of duty, obligation and responsibility: conservative, communitarian and Third Way. Each of these are reviewed below. The principal task of this article, though, is to examine the emergence of a fourth attempt which, by relating duty to equality through the principle of reciprocity, represents a synthesis of traditional social democracy with the new politics of obligation. Our focus will be upon The...

  2. Final Report for CORBA for Fourth Generation Language

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svetlana Shasharina

    2005-06-28

    The standard for object based networking is the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA). However, CORBA is not available for Fourth Generation Languages (4GL's) such as Visual Numerics? PV-WAVE or Research Systems? Interactive Data Language (RSI-IDL), which are widely used by scientists and engineers for data visualization and analysis. The proposed work would provide a set of tools to allow 4GL's to interoperate with CORBA.

  3. Fourth China-Arab Friendship Conference Held in Yinchuan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    <正>The Fourth China-Arab Friendship Conference (CAFC) with the theme of "promoting cooperation through friendship and pursuing development through exchanges", jointly sponsored by the CPAFFC, the China-Arab Friendship Association (CAFA) and the League of Arab States (LAS) and hosted by the People’s Government of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,was held in Yinchuan from September 13 to 14, 2012.Before the opening ceremony,Vice Premier Li Keqiang met

  4. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  5. Fourth Meeting of China-Spain Forum Held in Madrid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    <正>Chairman Hu Qili and Executive Chairman Chen Haosu of the Chinese Committee of the China-Spain Forum(CSF) led a Chinese delegation to attend the Fourth Meeting of the CSF in Madrid from November 27 to 28,2007.The meeting with the theme of "Harmony,Development and Gaining Win-Win Results" was jointly sponsored by the CPAFFC,the CSF Chinese Committee,the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Spain China Council Foundation.

  6. Fourth Regional Meeting: Nuclear Energy in Central Europe, Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fourth Regional Meeting for Nuclear Energy in Central Europe is an annual meeting of the Nuclear Society of Slovenia. The proceedings contain 89 articles from Slovenia, surrounding countries and countries of the Central and Eastern European Region. Topics are: Research Reactors, Reactor Physics, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Severe Accidents, Ageing and Integrity, Thermal Hydraulics, NPP Operation Experiance, Radioactive Waste Management, Environment and Other Aspects, Public and Nuclear Energy, SG Replacement and Plant Uprating.

  7. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  8. Fourth-Order Difference Methods for Hyperbolic IBVPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Bertil; Olsson, Pelle

    1995-03-01

    In this paper we consider fourth-order difference approximations of initial-boundary value problems for hyperbolic partial differential equations. We use the method of lines approach with both explicit and compact implicit difference operators in space. The explicit operator satisfies an energy estimate leading to strict stability. For the implicit operator we develop boundary conditions and give a complete proof of strong stability using the Laplace transform technique. We also present numerical experiments for the linear advection equation and Burgers' equation with discontinuities in the solution or in its derivative. The first equation is used for modeling contact discontinuities in fluid dynamics; the second one is used for modeling shocks and rarefaction waves. The time discretization is done with a third-order Runge-Kutta TVD method. For solutions with discontinuities in the solution itself we add a filter based on second-order viscosity. In case of the non-linear Burgers' equation we use a flux splitting technique that results in an energy estimate for certain difference approximations, in which case also an entropy condition is fulfilled. In particular we shall demonstrate that the unsplit conservative form produces a non-physical shock instead of the physically correct rarefaction wave. In the numerical experiments we compare our fourth-order methods with a standard second-order one and with a third-order TVD method. The results show that the fourth-order methods are the only ones that give good results for all the considered test problems.

  9. Is a Breakthrough on Climate Change Governance on the Horizon?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Figueroa, Maria Josefina

    The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particul...... great challenges for developing a pathway from knowledge to governance and climate action that can lead to an effective global response to climate change.......The recently released Fifth Assessment report of the IPCC has highlighted again with unprecedented scope and insight the urgency of addressing climate change. The international community has pledged to devise the next international agreement on climate change by 2015, while the EU and in particular...... the Scandinavian countries have forged ahead advancing a variety of policies to respond to climate change. Similarly, regions, municipalities, and private actors across the world are also contributing to climate governance. This paper asks whether the world is reaching a tipping point where a breakthrough...

  10. Teasing out the impacts of climate change on agricultural development

    OpenAIRE

    Knox, Jerry W.; Kay, Melvyn G.

    2010-01-01

    plethora of articles, books, and academic papers. Not least are the detailed and extensive publications of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which set out in their latest assessment (AR4), the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for understanding the risks posed by human- induced climate change, and the policy options for dealing with it. Although it is useful to study and identify the specific benefits and risks of a changing c...

  11. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

    OpenAIRE

    Ye, Liming; Xiong, Wei; Li, Zhengguo; Yang, Peng; Wu, Wenbin; Yang, Guixia; Fu, Yijiang; zou, Jinqiu; Chen, Zhongxin; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-01-01

    International audience Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and te...

  12. OSCILLATION CRITERIA FOR A FOURTH ORDER SUBLINEAR DYNAMIC EQUATION ON TIME SCALE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of a fourth order sublinear and/or linear dynamic equation on time scale are established. Our results are new for the corresponding fourth order differential equations as well as difference equations.

  13. 77 FR 37604 - Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-22

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA... enforce the safety zone for the Berkeley Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display in the Captain of the... Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display in 33 CFR 165.1191. This safety zone will be in effect from...

  14. 78 FR 29022 - Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-17

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 Safety Zone; Fourth of July Fireworks, Berkeley Marina, Berkeley, CA... enforce the safety zone for the Berkeley Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display in the Captain of the...'19'' W (NAD 83) for the Berkeley Marina Fourth of July Fireworks display listed in 33 CFR...

  15. A Search for the Fourth SM Family Fermions and E_6 Quarks at $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ Colliders

    CERN Document Server

    Çiftçi, A K; Sultansoy, S F

    2002-01-01

    The potential of $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ colliders to investigate the fourth SM family fermions predicted by flavour democracy has been analyzed. It is shown that muon colliders are advantageous for both pair production of fourth family fermions and resonance production of fourth family quarkonia. Also isosinglet quarks production at $\\mu ^{+}\\mu ^{-}$ colliders has been investigated.

  16. 76 FR 37007 - Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display, Stockton, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-24

    ... SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July... Stockton Ports Baseball Club will sponsor the Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July Fireworks Display... read as follows: Sec. 165.T11-422 Safety Zone; Stockton Ports Baseball Club Fourth of July...

  17. Can the Ethics of the Fourth Estate Persevere in a Global Age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ejvind

    2014-01-01

    for ethically good journalism. I argue that ethical evaluations should focus upon the meeting between normative ideals and factual realities. This meeting is always open because ideals can challenge reality, just as reality can challenge ideals. Ethical questions are thus always raising a fundamental “maybe......”. Traditionally the ideals of journalists have been articulated in close affiliation with ideas of the Fourth Estate. However, due to our globalised communicative structure, this articulation is in need of revision. I argue that the ethical requests change because the structure of Internet-based publics changes....... Departing from this situation I suggest that journalistic products are ethically urgent insofar as they both bring communities together and give voice to the inarticulate or voiceless. I argue that in order to substantiate this approach it is important to articulate rules, because rules further...

  18. Fourth-order gravity as the inflationary model revisited

    CERN Document Server

    Kaneda, S; Watanabe, N

    2010-01-01

    We revisit the simplest (fourth-order or quadratically generated) modified gravity model in four space-time dimensions. It is equivalent to the certain quintessence model via a Legendre-Weyl transform. By using the quintessence scalar potential we compute the (CMB) observables of inflation associated with curvature perturbations (namely, the scalar and tensor spectral indices, and the tensor-to-scalar ratio) by using the most recent WMAP5 experimental bound. Our results include the next-to-leading terms with respect to the inverse number of e-foldings.

  19. Symmetries, Large Leptonic Mixing and a Fourth Generation

    CERN Document Server

    Silva-Marcos, Joaquim I

    2002-01-01

    We show that large leptonic mixing occurs most naturally in the framework of the Sandard Model just by adding a fourth generation. One can then construct a small $Z_4$ discrete symmetry, instead of the large $S_{4L}\\times S_{4R}$, which requires that the neutrino as well as the charged lepton mass matrices be proportional to a $4\\times 4$ democratic mass matrix, where all entries are equal to unity. Without considering the see-saw mechanism, or other more elaborate extensions of the SM, and contrary to the case with only 3 generations, large leptonic mixing is obtained when the symmetry is broken.

  20. Nanopore-based Fourth-generation DNA Sequencing Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yanxiao Feng; Yuechuan Zhang; Cuifeng Ying; Deqiang Wang; Chunlei Du

    2015-01-01

    Nanopore-based sequencers, as the fourth-generation DNA sequencing technology, have the potential to quickly and reliably sequence the entire human genome for less than $1000, and possibly for even less than$100. The single-molecule techniques used by this technology allow us to further study the interaction between DNA and protein, as well as between protein and protein. Nanopore analysis opens a new door to molecular biology investigation at the single-molecule scale. In this article, we have reviewed academic achievements in nanopore technology from the past as well as the latest advances, including both biological and solid-state nanopores, and discussed their recent and potential applications.

  1. Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William; Crawford, Winifred; Barrett, Joe; Watson, Leela; Wheeler, Mark

    2009-01-01

    This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2009 (July - September 2009). Tasks reports include: (1) Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), (2) Objective Lightning Probability Tool. Phase III, (3) Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting. Phase II, (4) Update and Maintain Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS), (5) Verify MesoNAM Performance (6) develop a Graphical User Interface to update selected parameters for the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLlT)

  2. Rulison Site groundwater monitoring report. Fourth quarter, 1997

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes the results of the fourth quarter 1997 groundwater sampling event for the Rulison Site, which is located approximately 65 kilometers (km) (40 miles [mi]) northeast of Grand Junction, Colorado. This is the eighth and final sampling event of a quarterly groundwater monitoring program implemented by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This program monitored the effectiveness of remediation of a drilling effluent pond that had been used to store drilling mud during drilling of the emplacement hole for a 1969 gas stimulation test conducted by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (the predecessor agency to the DOE) and Austral Oil Company (Austral)

  3. Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons: Military effectiveness and collateral effects

    CERN Document Server

    Gsponer, A

    2005-01-01

    The paper begins with a general introduction and update to Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons (FGNW), and then addresses some particularly important military aspects on which there has been only limited public discussion so far. These aspects concern the unique military characteristics of FGNWs which make them radically different from both nuclear weapons based on previous-generation nuclear-explosives and from conventional weapons based on chemical-explosives: yields in the 1 to 100 tons range, greatly enhanced coupling to targets, possibility to drive powerful shaped charged jets and forged fragments, enhanced prompt radiation effects, reduced collateral damage and residual radioactivity, etc.

  4. Constraints on Majorana Dark Matter from a Fourth Lepton Family

    CERN Document Server

    Hapola, Tuomas; Kouvaris, Chris; Panci, Paolo; Virkajarvi, Jussi

    2013-01-01

    We study the possibility of dark matter in the form of heavy neutrinos from a fourth lepton family with helicity suppressed couplings such that dark matter is produced thermally via annihilations in the early Universe. We present all possible constraints for this scenario coming from LHC and collider physics, underground direct detectors, neutrino telescopes, and indirect astrophysical searches. Although we embed the WIMP candidate within a model of composite dynamics, the majority of our results are model independent and applicable to all models where heavy neutrinos with suppressed couplings account for the dark matter abundance.

  5. Proceedings Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming

    CERN Document Server

    Chapman, James; 10.4204/EPTCS.76

    2012-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of the Fourth Workshop on Mathematically Structured Functional Programming (MSFP 2012), taking place on 25 March, 2012 in Tallinn, Estonia, as a satellite event of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software, ETAPS 2012. MSFP is devoted to the derivation of functionality from structure. It highlights concepts from algebra, semantics and type theory as they are increasingly reflected in programming practice, especially functional programming. The workshop consists of two invited presentations and eight contributed papers on a range of topics at that interface.

  6. The virtual return of "fourth" and "fifth" generation migrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gredelj Stjepan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aims of the project are twofold: the first one is to get insight into scope, structure, everyday life, opinions and plans of our people who live abroad as the fourth and fifth generations of emigrants, specially those who left the country during 90s. The second is checking and recording their preparedness for "return" to mother-country through complex set of activities and arrangements: return (repatriation, capital investments, know-how and skills investments, preservation and strengthening cultural identity of our people abroad and development their links with the ethnic/cultural background and inheritance.

  7. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  8. Scale-invariant scalar spectrum from the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term

    CERN Document Server

    Myung, Yun Soo

    2015-01-01

    An exactly scale-invariant spectrum of scalar perturbation generated during de Sitter spacetime is found from the gravity model of the nonminimal derivative coupling with fourth-order term. The nonminimal derivative coupling term generates a healthy (ghost-free) fourth-order derivative term, while the fourth-order term provides an unhealthy (ghost) fourth-order derivative term. The Harrison-Zel'dovich spectrum obtained from Fourier transforming the fourth-order propagator in de Sitter space is recovered by computing the power spectrum in its momentum space directly. It shows that this model provides a truly scale-invariant spectrum, in addition to the Lee-Wick scalar theory.

  9. An automatic seismic signal detection method based on fourth-order statistics and applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xi-Qiang; Cai Yin; Zhao Rui; Zhao Yin-Gang; Qu Bao-An; Feng Zhi-Jun; Li Hong

    2014-01-01

    Real-time, automatic, and accurate determination of seismic signals is critical for rapid earthquake reporting and early warning. In this study, we present a correction trigger function (CTF) for automatically detecting regional seismic events and a fourth-order statistics algorithm with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for determining the direct wave phase, based on the differences, or changes, in energy, frequency, and amplitude of the direct P- or S-waves signal and noise. Simulations suggest for that the proposed fourth-order statistics result in high resolution even for weak signal and noise variations at different amplitude, frequency, and polarization characteristics. To improve the precision of establishing the S-waves onset,fi rst a specifi c segment of P-wave seismograms is selected and the polarization characteristics of the data are obtained. Second, the S-wave seismograms that contained the specifi c segment of P-wave seismograms are analyzed by S-wave polarizationfi ltering. Finally, the S-wave phase onset times are estimated. The proposed algorithm was used to analyze regional earthquake data from the Shandong Seismic Network. The results suggest that compared with conventional methods, the proposed algorithm greatly decreased false and missed earthquake triggers, and improved the detection precision of direct P- and S-wave phases.

  10. Projected climate change and the changing biogeography of coastal Mediterranean fishes

    OpenAIRE

    Albouy, C; Guilhaumon, François; Leprieur, F; Lasram, F. B.; Somot, S.; Aznar, R; Velez, Laure; Le Loc'h, François; Mouillot, D.

    2013-01-01

    Aim To forecast the potential effects of climate change in the Mediterranean Sea on the species richness and mean body size of coastal fish assemblages. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we used species distribution modelling to project the potential distribution of 288 coastal fish species by the middle and end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. Results A mean rise of 1.4 ...

  11. Exploring the Linkages between Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A Challenge for Transdisciplinary Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohan Munasinghe

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, both sustainable development and climate change have become well known worldwide, and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC has also focused on the nexus of these two key topics. The IPCC third assessment report confirms that global mean temperatures will rise 1.5-6 degrees Celsius during the next century. Furthermore, climate change will significantly affect the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as key issues like poverty and equity. Therefore, the IPCC is seeking answers to important questions: how future development patterns will affect climate change; how climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation will affect future sustainable development prospects; and how climate change responses might be better integrated into emerging sustainable development strategies. Some key lessons have emerged from these efforts. The IPCC intellectual community has already proved to be quite cohesive and resilient in the face of determined attacks by powerful and well-financed “anti-climate change” lobbies. While addressing sustainable development issues, adaptation and learning within the IPCC have further strengthened the network. First, fresh ideas have been brought in to catalyze change. Transdisciplinary approaches are essential to deal with large-scale, long-term, complex, and interlinked issues like sustainable development and climate change. Second, the disciplinary mix has continued to evolve to meet the challenge. However, crossing disciplinary and cultural boundaries requires sound knowledge of one’s own discipline (especially its limitations, open-mindedness, great patience, and sincere effort on all sides. Third, IPCC internal processes have adjusted to facilitate beneficial changes, while limiting harmful dissension. E-mail has proved to be a powerful, but potentially risky tool. How something is said could be as important as what is said, to

  12. Towards a fourth spatial dimension of brain activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozzi, Arturo; Peters, James F

    2016-06-01

    Current advances in neurosciences deal with the functional architecture of the central nervous system, paving the way for general theories that improve our understanding of brain activity. From topology, a strong concept comes into play in understanding brain functions, namely, the 4D space of a "hypersphere's torus", undetectable by observers living in a 3D world. The torus may be compared with a video game with biplanes in aerial combat: when a biplane flies off one edge of gaming display, it does not crash but rather it comes back from the opposite edge of the screen. Our thoughts exhibit similar behaviour, i.e. the unique ability to connect past, present and future events in a single, coherent picture as if we were allowed to watch the three screens of past-present-future "glued" together in a mental kaleidoscope. Here we hypothesize that brain functions are embedded in a imperceptible fourth spatial dimension and propose a method to empirically assess its presence. Neuroimaging fMRI series can be evaluated, looking for the topological hallmark of the presence of a fourth dimension. Indeed, there is a typical feature which reveal the existence of a functional hypersphere: the simultaneous activation of areas opposite each other on the 3D cortical surface. Our suggestion-substantiated by recent findings-that brain activity takes place on a closed, donut-like trajectory helps to solve long-standing mysteries concerning our psychological activities, such as mind-wandering, memory retrieval, consciousness and dreaming state. PMID:27275375

  13. Welcome to pandoraviruses at the 'Fourth TRUC’ club

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vikas eSharma

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs, or representatives of the proposed order Megavirales, belong to families of giant viruses that infect a broad range of eukaryotic hosts. Megaviruses have been previously described to comprise a fourth monophylogenetic TRUC (Things Resisting Uncompleted Classification together with cellular domains in the universal tree of life. Recently described pandoraviruses have large (1.9-2.5 MB and highly divergent genomes. In the present study, we updated the classification of pandoraviruses and other reported giant viruses. Phylogenetic trees were constructed based on six informational genes. Hierarchical clustering was performed based on a set of informational genes from Megavirales members and cellular organisms. Homologous sequences were selected from cellular organisms using TimeTree software, comprising comprehensive and representative sets of members from Bacteria, Archaea and Eukarya. Phylogenetic analyses based on three conserved core genes clustered pandoraviruses with phycodnaviruses, exhibiting their close relatedness. Additionally, hierarchical clustering analyses based on informational genes grouped pandoraviruses with Megavirales members as a super group distinct from cellular organisms. Thus, the analyses based on core conserved genes revealed that pandoraviruses are new genuine members of the ‘Fourth TRUC’ club, encompassing distinct life forms compared with cellular organisms.

  14. Pseudospectral collocation methods for fourth order differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Alaeddin; Phillips, Timothy N.

    1994-01-01

    Collocation schemes are presented for solving linear fourth order differential equations in one and two dimensions. The variational formulation of the model fourth order problem is discretized by approximating the integrals by a Gaussian quadrature rule generalized to include the values of the derivative of the integrand at the boundary points. Collocation schemes are derived which are equivalent to this discrete variational problem. An efficient preconditioner based on a low-order finite difference approximation to the same differential operator is presented. The corresponding multidomain problem is also considered and interface conditions are derived. Pseudospectral approximations which are C1 continuous at the interfaces are used in each subdomain to approximate the solution. The approximations are also shown to be C3 continuous at the interfaces asymptotically. A complete analysis of the collocation scheme for the multidomain problem is provided. The extension of the method to the biharmonic equation in two dimensions is discussed and results are presented for a problem defined in a nonrectangular domain.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  16. Saving the fourth generation Higgs with radion mixing

    CERN Document Server

    Frank, Mariana; Toharia, Manuel

    2012-01-01

    We study Higgs-radion mixing in a warped extra dimensional model with Standard Model fields in the bulk, and we include a fourth generation of chiral fermions. The main problem with the fourth generation is that, in the absence of Higgs-radion mixing, it produces a large enhancement in the Higgs production cross-section, now severely constrained by LHC data. We analyze the production and decay rates of the two physical states emerging from the mixing and confront them with present LHC data. We show that the current signals observed can be compatible with the presence of one, or both, of these Higgs-radion mixed states (the $\\phi$ and the $h$), although with a severely restricted parameter space. In particular, the radion interaction scale must be quite low, Lambda_\\phi ~ 1-1.3 TeV. If m_\\phi ~ 125 GeV, the $h$ state must be heavier (m_h>320 GeV). If m_h ~ 125 GeV, the $\\phi$ state must be quite light or close in mass (m_\\phi ~ 120 GeV). We also present the modified decay branching ratios of the mixed Higgs-ra...

  17. Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.;

    2013-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1...

  18. Assessing Water Management Impacts of Climate Change for a semi-arid Watershed in the Southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopal, S.; Dominguez, F.; Gupta, H. V.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Water managers for the City of Phoenix currently face the need to make informed policy decisions regarding long-term impacts of climate change on the Salt-Verde River basin in central Arizona. To provide a scientifically informed basis for this, we estimate the evolution of important components of the basin-scale water balance through the end of the 21st century. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections from the Phase-3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project of the World Climate Research Programme were used to drive a spatially distributed variable infiltration capacity model of the hydrologic processes in the basins. Of the Global Climate Model's participating in the IPCC fourth assessment we selected a five-model ensemble, including the three that best reproduce the historical climatology for our study region, plus two others to represent wetter and drier than model average conditions; the latter two were requested by City of Phoenix water managers to more fully represent the full range of GCM prediction uncertainty. For each GCM, data for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) was used to drive the hydrologic model into the future. The model projections indicate a 25% statistically significant decrease in streamflow by the end of the 21st century. This is primarily caused by decreased winter precipitation accompanied by significant (temperature driven) reductions in storage of snow. From the analysis of the future period, a synthetic climate dataset was created to reflect future changes in magnitude while preserving the correlation by perturbing the historical observed precipitation and temperature. This dataset was used to evaluate climate elasticity and improve water managers understanding of the impacts to the basin. The results shown in this presentation clearly indicate the manner in which water management in central Arizona is likely to be impacted by changes in regional climate.

  19. Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    -management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

  20. Measuring Engagement with the Potential Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, N.; Danielson, R. W.; Lombardi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Across three studies, we investigated engagement with the consequences of climate change. We drew from the conceptual change and risk analysis literatures to find the factors that determine how much people will care about future risks. Questions derived from these factors were then asked about many hypothesized consequences of climate change. These consequences were drawn from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report (IPCC, 2012) and, in the third study, additionally from the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014). The first two studies, using undergraduate students, demonstrated that some consequences were indeed considerably more engaging than others. The third study used a more representative sample of American adults, drawn from Amazon Mechanical Turk and used the Global Warming's Six Americas Screening Tool (Maibach, Leiserowitz, Roser-Renouf, Mertz, & Akerlof, 2011) in a large screening survey to find 20 participants in each of the six audiences defined by this tool. These participants were then asked about the potential consequences of climate change. Results again showed that some consequences are considered more engaging than others, and also showed the ways in which members of these six audiences perceive the consequences of climate change differently.

  1. Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hills, Richard Guy; Witkowski, Walter R.; Urbina, Angel; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2013-09-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNLs mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

  2. Fourth ICT Innovations conference ”Secure and Intelligent Systems”

    CERN Document Server

    Gusev, Marjan; ICT Innovations 2012 : Secure and Intelligent Systems

    2013-01-01

    The present stage of the human civilization is the e-society, which is build over the achievements obtained by the development of the information and communication technologies. It affects everyone, from ordinary mobile phone users to designers of high quality industrial products, and every human activity, from taking medical care to improving the state governing. The science community working in computer sciences and informatics is therefore under constant challenge; it has to solve the new appeared theoretical problem as well as to find new practical solutions. \\\\ The fourth ICT Innovations Conference, held in September 2012 in Ohrid, Macedonia, was one of the several world-wide forums where academics, professionals and practitioners presented their last scientific results and development applications in the fields of high performance and parallel computing, bioinformatics, human computer interaction, security and cryptography, computer and mobile networks, neural networks, cloud computing, process verifica...

  3. PRIST: a fourth-generation tool for medical information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristiani, P; Larizza, C

    1990-04-01

    PRIST is a fourth-generation software package purposely oriented to development and management of medical applications, running under MS/DOS IBM compatible personal computers. The tool has been developed on the top of DBIII Plus language utilizing the Clipper Compiler networking features for the integration in a LAN environment. Several routines written in C and BASIC Microsoft languages integrated this DBMS-kernel system providing I/O, graphics, statistics, retrieval utilities. To increase the interactivity of the system both menu-driven and windowing interfaces have been implemented. PRIST has been utilized to develop a wide variety of small medical applications ranging from research laboratories to intensive care units. The great majority of reactions from the use of these applications were positive, confirming that PRIST is able to assist in practice management and patient care as well as research purposes. PMID:2345045

  4. Wormhole geometries in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varieschi, Gabriele U.; Ault, Kellie L.

    2016-04-01

    We present an analysis of the classic wormhole geometries based on conformal Weyl gravity, rather than standard general relativity. The main characteristics of the resulting traversable wormholes remains the same as in the seminal study by Morris and Thorne, namely, that effective super-luminal motion is a viable consequence of the metric. Improving on previous work on the subject, we show that for particular choices of the shape and redshift functions the wormhole metric in the context of conformal gravity does not violate the main energy conditions at or near the wormhole throat. Some exotic matter might still be needed at the junction between our solutions and flat spacetime, but we demonstrate that the averaged null energy condition (as evaluated along radial null geodesics) is satisfied for a particular set of wormhole geometries. Therefore, if fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity is a correct extension of general relativity, traversable wormholes might become a realistic solution for interstellar travel.

  5. Wormhole geometries in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Varieschi, Gabriele U

    2015-01-01

    We present an analysis of the classic wormhole geometries based on conformal Weyl gravity, rather than standard general relativity. The main characteristics of the resulting traversable wormholes remain the same as in the seminal study by Morris and Thorne, namely, that effective super-luminal motion is a viable consequence of the metric. Improving on previous work on the subject, we show that for particular choices of the shape and redshift functions, the wormhole metric in the context of conformal gravity does not violate the main energy conditions, as was the case of the original solutions. In particular, the resulting geometry does not require the use of exotic matter at or near the wormhole throat. Therefore, if fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity is a correct extension of general relativity, traversable wormholes might become a realistic solution for interstellar travel.

  6. Proceedings of the fourth annual conference on fossil energy materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkins, R.R.; Braski, D.N. (comps.)

    1990-08-01

    The Fourth Annual Conference on Fossil Energy Materials was held in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on may 15--17, 1990. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy through the Advanced Research and Technology Development (AR TD) Materials Program, and ASM International. The objective of the AR TD Materials Program is to conduct research and development on materials for longer-term fossil energy applications as well as for generic needs of various fossil fuel technologies. The work is divided into the following categories: (1) Ceramics, (2) New Alloys, (3) Corrosion and Erosion, and (4) Technology Assessment and Technology Transfer. Individual projects are processed separately for the data bases.

  7. CAS CERN Accelerator School: Fourth general accelerator physics course

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The fourth CERN Accelerator School (CAS) basic course on General Accelerator Physics was given at KFA, Juelich, from 17 to 28 September 1990. Its syllabus was based on the previous similar courses held at Gif-sur-Yvette in 1984, Aarhus 1986, and Salamanca 1988, and whose proceedings were published as CERN Reports 85-19, 87-10, and 89-05, respectively. However, certain topics were treated in a different way, improved or extended, while new subjects were introduced. All of these appear in the present proceedings, which include lectures or seminars on the history and applications of accelerators, phase space and emittance, chromaticity, beam-beam effects, synchrotron radiation, radiation damping, tune measurement, transition, electron cooling, the designs of superconducting magnets, ring lattices, conventional RF cavities and ring RF systems, and an introduction to cyclotrons. (orig.)

  8. The Fourth Gravity Test and Quintessence Matter Field

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Molin; Yu, Fei; Gui, Yuanxing

    2010-01-01

    After the previous work on gravitational frequency shift, light deflection (arXiv:1003.5296) and perihelion advance (arXiv:0812.2332), we calculate carefully the fourth gravity test, i.e. radar echo delay in a central gravity field surrounded by static free quintessence matter, in this paper. Through the Lagrangian method, we find the influence of the quintessence matter on the time delay of null particle is presence by means of an additional integral term. When the quintessence field vanishes, it reduces to the usual Schwarzschild case naturally. Meanwhile, we also use the data of the Viking lander from the Mars and Cassini spacecraft to Saturn to constrain the quintessence field. For the Viking case, the field parameter $\\alpha$ is under the order of $10^{-9}$. However, $\\alpha$ is under $10^{-18}$ for the Cassini case.

  9. Minutes of the fourth SALE program participants meeting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-10-01

    This report is a documentation of the presentations made to the Fourth Safeguards Analytical Laboratory Evaluation (S.A.L.E.) Program Participants Meeting at Argonne, Illinois, July 8-9, 1981. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy and was coordinated by the S.A.L.E. Program of the New Brunswick Laboratory. The objective of the meeting was to provide a forum through which administration of the Program and methods appropriate to the analysis of S.A.L.E. Program samples could be discussed. The Minutes of the Meeting is a collection of presentations by the speakers at the meeting and of the discussions following the presentations. The presentations are included as submitted by the speakers. The discussion sections were transcribed from tape recordings of the meeting and were edited to clarify and emphasize important comments. Seventeen papers have been abstracted and indexed.

  10. The RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE): Fourth data release

    CERN Document Server

    Kordopatis, G; Steinmetz, M; Boeche, C; Seabroke, G M; Siebert, A; Zwitter, T; Binney, J; de Laverny, P; Recio-Blanco, A; Williams, M E K; Piffl, T; Enke, H; Roeser, S; Bijaoui, A; Wyse, R F G; Freeman, K; Munari, U; Carillo, I; Anguiano, B; Burton, D; Campbell, R; Cass, C J P; Fiegert, K; Hartley, M; Parker, Q A; Reid, W; Ritter, A; Russell, K S; Stupart, M; Watson, F G; Bienayme, O; Bland-Hawthorn, J; Gerhard, O; Gibson, B K; Grebel, E K; Helmi, A; Navarro, J F; Conrad, C; Famaey, B; Faure, C; Just, A; Kos, J; Matijevic, G; McMillan, P J; Minchev, I; Scholz, R; Sharma, S; Siviero, A; de Boer, E Wylie; Zerjal, M

    2013-01-01

    We present the stellar atmospheric parameters (effective temperature, surface gravity, overall metallicity), radial velocities, individual abundances and distances determined for 425 561 stars, which constitute the fourth public data release of the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). The stellar atmospheric parameters are computed using a new pipeline, based on the algorithms of MATISSE and DEGAS. The spectral degeneracies and the 2MASS photometric information are now better taken into consideration, improving the parameter determination compared to the previous RAVE data releases. The individual abundances for six elements (magnesium, aluminum, silicon, titanium, iron and nickel) are also given, based on a special-purpose pipeline which is also improved compared to that available for the RAVE DR3 and Chemical DR1 data releases. Together with photometric information and proper motions, these data can be retrieved from the RAVE collaboration website and the Vizier database.

  11. Fourth international workshop on human chromosome 5. Final progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McPherson, J.D.

    1996-12-31

    The Fourth International Workshop on Human Chromosome 5 was held in Manchester, UK on November 9--10, 1996 and was hosted by the University of Manchester. The major goals of the workshop were: (1) to collate the various genetic, cytogenetic and physical maps of human chromosome 5; (2) to integrate these maps and identify/correct discrepancies between them wherever possible; (3) to catalogue the sequence-ready contigs of the chromosome; (4) to co-ordinate the various sequencing efforts to avoid future duplication; (5) to establish the first (to the author`s knowledge) web site for the human chromosome 5 community which contains the above information in a readily accessible form.

  12. Statement of incidents at nuclear installations fourth quarter 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The three incidents which are reported for the fourth quarter of 1985 occurred at Transfynydd and Hinkley Point-B reactors (operated by CEGB) and there is a follow-up report on an earlier incident at Hunterston A reactor (operated by the South of Scotland Electricity Board). The Transfynydd incident concerned a fire in conventional plant and although the reactor was shut down as a precaution, the damage was limited to conventional plant and there was no radiation hazard. The two incidents at Hinkley Point-B concerned a boiler tube leak which allowed high pressure steam into the coolant gas circuit and a leakage of reactor coolant gas which caused the site emergency arrangements to be invoked but which caused no contamination outside the reactor building. The Hunterston-A report concerns the replacement of an active effluent discharge pipeline which had been found to have a leak. (UK)

  13. Development of a fourth generation predictive capability maturity model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hills, Richard Guy; Witkowski, Walter R.; Urbina, Angel; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2013-09-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNL's mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

  14. A novel circuit architecture for fourth subharmonie mixers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yao Changfei; Xu Conghai; Zhou Ming; Luo Yunsheng

    2012-01-01

    A circuit topology for high-order subharmonic (SH) mixers is described.By phase cancellation of idle frequency components,the SH mixer circuit can eliminate the complicated design procedure of idle frequency circuits.Similarly,the SH mixer circuit can achieve a high port isolation by phase cancellation of the leakage LO,RF and idle frequency signals.Based on the high-order SH mixer architecture,a new Ka-band fourth SH mixer is analyzed and designed,it shows the lowest measured conversion loss of 8.3 dB at 38.4 GHz and the loss is lower than 10.3 dB in 34-39 GHz.Measured LO-IF,RF-LO,RF-IF port isolation are better than 30.7 dB,22.9dB and 46.5 dB,respectively.

  15. Dynamical Properties in a Fourth-Order Nonlinear Difference Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianyi Li

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The rule of trajectory structure for fourth-order nonlinear difference equation xn+1=(xan−2+xn−3/(xan−2xn−3+1, n=0,1,2,…, where a∈[0,1 and the initial values x−3,x−2,x−1,x0∈[0,∞, is described clearly out in this paper. Mainly, the lengths of positive and negative semicycles of its nontrivial solutions are found to occur periodically with prime period 15. The rule is 4+,3−,1+,2−,2+,1−,1+, 1− in a period. By utilizing this rule its positive equilibrium point is verified to be globally asymptotically stable.

  16. Nanopore-based Fourth-generation DNA Sequencing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxiao Feng

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Nanopore-based sequencers, as the fourth-generation DNA sequencing technology, have the potential to quickly and reliably sequence the entire human genome for less than $1000, and possibly for even less than $100. The single-molecule techniques used by this technology allow us to further study the interaction between DNA and protein, as well as between protein and protein. Nanopore analysis opens a new door to molecular biology investigation at the single-molecule scale. In this article, we have reviewed academic achievements in nanopore technology from the past as well as the latest advances, including both biological and solid-state nanopores, and discussed their recent and potential applications.

  17. The software factory: A fourth generation software engineering environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, M.W.

    1989-01-01

    The software-development process and its management are examined in a text intended for engineering managers and students of computer science. A unified concept based on the principle that software design is an engineering science rather than an art is applied, and a software engineering environment (SEE) analogous to an industrial plant is proposed. Chapters are devoted to the classical software environment, the history of software engineering, the evolution of the SEE, the fourth-generation SEE, the engineering process, software-data relationships, the SEE data base, data control in the SEE, software life cycles, information-system product assurance, business management and control, and automating and adapting the SEE. 143 refs.

  18. The fourth-generation Water Vapor Millimeter-Wave Spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, R. Michael; Nedoluha, Gerald E.; Neal, Helen L.; McDermid, I. Stuart

    2012-02-01

    For 20 years the Naval Research Laboratory has been making continuous water vapor profile measurements at 22.235 GHz with the Water Vapor Millimeter-Wave Spectrometer (WVMS) instruments, with the program expanding from one to three instruments in the first 6 years. Since the initial deployments there have been gradual improvements in the instrument design which have improved data quality and reduced maintenance requirements. Recent technological developments have made it possible to entirely redesign the instrument and improve not only the quality of the measurements but also the capability of the instrument. We present the fourth-generation instrument now operating at Table Mountain, California, which incorporates the most recent advances in microwave radiometry. This instrument represents the most significant extension of our measurement capability to date, enabling us to measure middle atmospheric water vapor from ˜26-80 km.

  19. Minutes of the fourth SALE program participants meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a documentation of the presentations made to the Fourth Safeguards Analytical Laboratory Evaluation (S.A.L.E.) Program Participants Meeting at Argonne, Illinois, July 8-9, 1981. The meeting was sponsored by the US Department of Energy and was coordinated by the S.A.L.E. Program of the New Brunswick Laboratory. The objective of the meeting was to provide a forum through which administration of the Program and methods appropriate to the analysis of S.A.L.E. Program samples could be discussed. The Minutes of the Meeting is a collection of presentations by the speakers at the meeting and of the discussions following the presentations. The presentations are included as submitted by the speakers. The discussion sections were transcribed from tape recordings of the meeting and were edited to clarify and emphasize important comments. Seventeen papers have been abstracted and indexed

  20. Fourth International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management

    CERN Document Server

    Boulanger, Frédéric; Krob, Daniel; Marchal, Clotilde

    2014-01-01

    This book contains all refereed papers that were accepted to the fourth edition of the « Complex Systems Design & Management » (CSD&M 2013) international conference which took place in Paris (France) from December 4-6, 2013. These proceedings cover the most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences & practices from an industrial and academic perspective, including the main industrial domains (transport, defense & security, electronics, energy & environment, e-services), scientific & technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture & engineering, systems metrics & quality, systemic tools) and system types (transportation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of systems, artificial ecosystems). The CSD&M 2013 conference is organized under the guidance of the CESAMES non-profit organization

  1. Black hole shadows in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity

    CERN Document Server

    Mureika, Jonas R

    2016-01-01

    We calculate the characteristics of the "black hole shadow" for a rotating, neutral black hole in fourth-order conformal Weyl gravity. It is shown that the morphology is not significantly affected by the underlying framework, except for very large masses. Conformal gravity black hole shadows would also significantly differ from their general relativistic counterparts if the values of the main conformal gravity parameters, $\\gamma$ and $\\kappa$, were increased by several orders of magnitude. Such increased values for $\\gamma$ and $\\kappa$ are currently ruled out by gravitational phenomenology. Therefore, it is unlikely that these differences in black hole shadows will be detected in future observations, carried out by the Event Horizon Telescope or others such experiments.

  2. 第四核心资源%The Fourth Core Resource

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张基温

    2009-01-01

    Productivity is the ability of resource exploitation.The improvement of resource exploitation capabilities forms an important indicator of human social development.At present,human society has already witnessed the three phases of land resource,natural resource and the information resource exploitation,and is entering into the era of service resource exploitation.Service embraces some special functions such as optimizing the allocation of resources,relocating social distribution,reducing trade costs,improving product quality and storing the developing power.Every new growth area in great social change comes from the service field.As informationization increases,the service resource will become the fourth core resource in human society after material,energy and information.The service resource exploitation ability is sure to be a sign of advanced productivity and superiority in social competition.

  3. Climate change impacts on working people : how to develop prevention policies

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Maria; Kjellström, Tord

    2010-01-01

    The evidence on negative consequences from climate change on human health and well-being is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described climate change as a threat to the climate system that sets the basis for life and human health conditions. The changing climate is expected to affect basic requirements needed to support and sustain human health such as good food, clean water, and unpolluted air, with negative effects that are expected to be unequally distributed.

  4. Invited Editorial: Climate change impacts on working people: how to develop prevention policies

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Maria; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2010-01-01

    The evidence on negative consequences from climate change on human health and well-being is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described climate change as a threat to the climate system that sets the basis for life and human health conditions. The changing climate is expected to affect basic requirements needed to support and sustain human health such as good food, clean water, and unpolluted air, with negative effects that are expected to be unequally distributed. ...

  5. Recent advances on thrombosis and haemostasis in Asian Pacific region: report of the Fourth Asian Pacific Congress on Thrombosis and Haemostasis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhao-yue

    2006-01-01

    @@ The Fourth Asian Pacific Congress on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (APCTH) was held from September 21 to 23, 2006 in Suzhou, China and organized by the Asian Pacific Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis and the Chinese Society of Haematology with professor RUAN Chang-geng as the chairperson.

  6. The fourth shift: exploring the gendered nature of sleep disruption among couples with children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venn, Susan; Arber, Sara; Meadows, Robert; Hislop, Jenny

    2008-03-01

    The study of sleep has been neglected within sociology, yet may provide insights into fundamental aspects of the nature of gender inequalities. This article examines how, for couples with children, sleep is influenced by the gendered nature of caring. A key concern is not only who gets up to care for children's physical needs at night, but whether this changes with women's increased role in the labour market. Of concern also is how changes in the nature of caring for older children, as opposed to young children, may impact on parents' sleep. This article analyses qualitative data from an ESRC funded multi-disciplinary project on couples' sleep based on in-depth audio-tape recorded interviews with 26 couples (aged 20-59) with younger and older children. Additionally, one week's audio sleep diaries were completed and follow up in-depth interviews were undertaken with each partner on an individual basis. Physical and emotional care for young children at night was largely provided by women, with a lack of explicit negotiation between partners about who provides this care, even when women return to employment. Thus, considerably more women than men continued their daytime and evening shifts, as well as undertaking an ongoing third shift of sentient activity for their family, into the night. This resulted in a fourth night-time shift where physical caring, and sentient activities continued. As a consequence, women were more likely to subjugate their own sleep needs to those of their family. Fathers did not, in general, undertake this fourth night-time shift. Those that did were more likely to be the fathers of young adult children who were staying out late at night, with the focus of their concerns being the safety of their children. PMID:18321332

  7. Weight Loss Composition is One-Fourth Fat-Free Mass: A Critical Review and Critique of This Widely Cited Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Heymsfield, Steven B; Cristina Gonzalez, M. C.; Shen, Wei; Redman, Leanne; Thomas, Diana

    2014-01-01

    Maximizing fat loss while preserving lean tissue mass and function is a central goal of modern obesity treatments. A widely cited rule guiding expected loss of lean tissue as fat-free mass (FFM) states that approximately one-fourth of weight loss will be FFM (i.e., ΔFFM/ΔWeight = ~0.25) with the remaining three-fourths fat mass. This review examines the dynamic relations between FFM, fat mass, and weight changes that follow induction of negative energy balance with hypocaloric dieting and/or ...

  8. Opportunities and threats of the fourth industrial revolution and their reflection in the selection of innovative growth strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Illiashenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. Analysis and systematization of possible effects of the fourth industrial revolution both positive and negative, development of recommendations for innovative development strategies formation which would allow the use of opportunities for social and economic growth and will prevent treats. The results of the analysis. Based on a systematic analysis of the literature and practice of management allocated the positive and negative effects of the introduction of innovative technologies (both existing and forecasted, created in line with the fourth industrial revolution. The results of their systematization can be used as basis for the formation of an information base to determine the priorities of innovation. It is shown that distribution of the changes caused by the fourth industrial revolution and the completion of the fifth technological way and the transition to the sixth provide chances to individual institutions and national economies to move to outstripping innovative development. On the example of Ukraine and modern forms of work organization (freelance for the various sectors of activity it is shown that domestic experts have leading positions in global markets, they are successfully implementing the technology generated by the fourth industrial revolution. It demonstrates the significant potential of transition to the sixth technological way. The generalized scheme of formation of Ukrainian innovative development priority directions in line with the concept of technological advance is developed. It is shown that Ukraine has considerable potential for innovation growth which is relevant to the terms of the fourth industrial revolution. In particular, the 2015 world rankings in knowledge and innovation, it had high enough position: knowledge creation – 14; innovation effectiveness – 15; spending on education – 18; number of applications for patents – 19; number of graduates in science and technology – 20

  9. A rare case of retained fourth molar teeth in maxilla and mandible. Case report

    OpenAIRE

    Rahnama Mansur; Szyszkowska Anna; Pulawska Marta; Szczerba-Gwozdz Joanna

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a case of the rarely occurring totally retained fourth molar teeth simultaneously in maxilla and mandible. The appearance of supernumerary teeth is a relatively uncommon dental anomaly and it is rare for patients to have impacted fourth molars in two quadrant. The aim of this work is to describe the presence of unilateral (right) fourth molars in the maxilla and the mandible in a young female patient aged 24 years. Orthopantomogram revealed impacted lower third molars but a...

  10. Solvability of a fourth order boundary value problem with periodic boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaitan P. Gupta

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available Fourth order boundary value problems arise in the study of the equilibrium of an elastaic beam under an external load. The author earlier investigated the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the nonlinear analogues of fourth order boundary value problems that arise in the equilibrium of an elastic beam depending on how the ends of the beam are supported. This paper concerns the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fourth order boundary value problems with periodic boundary conditions.

  11. Solvability of a fourth order boundary value problem with periodic boundary conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Chaitan P. Gupta

    1988-01-01

    Fourth order boundary value problems arise in the study of the equilibrium of an elastaic beam under an external load. The author earlier investigated the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the nonlinear analogues of fourth order boundary value problems that arise in the equilibrium of an elastic beam depending on how the ends of the beam are supported. This paper concerns the existence and uniqueness of solutions of the fourth order boundary value problems with periodic boundary co...

  12. Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Dana Nuccitelli et al."

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Q.-B.

    2014-04-01

    In the Comment by Nuccitelli et al., they make many false and invalid criticisms of the CFC-warming theory in my recent paper, and claim that their anthropogenic forcings including CO2 would provide a better explanation of the observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) data over the past 50 years. First, their arguments for no significant discrepancy between modeled and observed GMST changes and for no pause in recent global warming contradict the widely accepted fact and conclusion that were reported in the recent literature extensively. Second, their criticism that the key data used in my recent paper would be "outdated" and "flawed" is untrue as these data are still used in the recent or current literature including the newest (2013) IPCC Report and there is no considerable difference between the UK Met Office HadRCUT3 and HadRCUT4 GMST datasets. The use of even more recently computer-reconstructed total solar irradiance data (whatever have large uncertainties) for the period prior to 1976 would not change any of the conclusions in my paper, where quantitative analyses were emphasized on the influences of humans and the Sun on global surface temperature after 1970 when direct measurements became available. For the latter, the solar effect has been well shown to play only a negligible role in global surface temperature change since 1970, which is identical to the conclusion made in the 2013 IPCC Report. Third, their argument that the solar effect would not play a major role in the GMST rise of 0.2°C during 1850-1970 even contradicts the data and conclusion presented in a recent paper published in their Skeptical Science by Nuccitelli himself. Fourth, their comments also indicate their lack of understandings of the basic radiation physics of the Earth system as well as of the efficacies of different greenhouse gases in affecting global surface temperature. Their listed "methodological errors" are either trivial or non-existing. Fifth, their assertion that

  13. Monitoring Network Confirms Land Use Change is a Substantial Component of the Forest Carbon Sink in the eastern United States

    OpenAIRE

    C. W. Woodall; Walters, B. F.; J. W. Coulston; A. W. D’Amato; G. M. Domke; Russell, M. B; P. A. Sowers

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying forest carbon (C) stocks and stock change within a matrix of land use (LU) and LU change is a central component of large-scale forest C monitoring and reporting practices prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using a region–wide, repeated forest inventory, forest C stocks and stock change by pool were examined by LU categories. In eastern US forests, LU change is a substantial component of C sink strength (~37% of forest sink strength) only secondary ...

  14. Changes in the Alpine environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Schoeneich

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available L’évolution de l’environnement alpin au XXIe siècle sera conditionnée par le changement climatique. Celui-ci pourrait conduire à des climats inconnus à ce jour dans les Alpes, avec comme conséquence une crise environnementale majeure et durable. Face à ces défis, les financements de recherche restent insuffisants pour la recherche appliquée aux milieux de montagne. Les financements nationaux privilégient souvent la recherche polaire au détriment des hautes altitudes, alors que les financements de type Interreg prennent insuffisamment en compte les besoins de recherche fondamentale, préalable nécessaire à l’élaboration de scénarios. Une évolution se dessine depuis deux ou trois ans vers des projets en réseau à l’échelle alpine. Le présent article fait le point sur les principaux enjeux qui attendent la recherche environnementale alpine et sur la capacité des programmes de recherche à répondre aux besoins. La première partie sur les changements climatiques est fondée sur les rapports récents : rapport de synthèse IPCC 2007 (IPCC 2007, rapport IPCC sur l’Europe (Alcamo et al. 2007, rapport de synthèse du programme ClimChAlp (Prudent-Richard et al., 2008. On y trouvera des bibliographies complètes et circonstanciées. La deuxième partie se base sur une analyse des appels d’offres récents ou en cours, et des projets soumis et financés.The way the Alpine environment will evolve in the 21st century depends upon climate change. This could lead to climates never before seen in the Alps, resulting in a major and lasting environmental crisis. In the face of these challenges, funding is still insufficient for specialised research on mountain environments. State funding often prioritises polar research at the expense of high altitude areas, whereas funding schemes from bodies such as Interreg do not sufficiently address the need for fundamental research, which is nevertheless a necessary first step prior to

  15. [Study on the characters of phytoplankton chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra based on fourth-derivative].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Lu; Su, Rong-Guo; Wang, Xiu-Lin; Zhu, Chen-Jian

    2007-11-01

    Chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra of six phytoplankton species, belonging to Bacillariophyta and Dinophyta, were dealt by fourth-derivative analysis with the Matlab program. The results show that between 350 nm and 550 nm six fluorescence peaks were found in the fourth-derivative spectra, which are representatives of non-pigments, chlorophylls and carotenoides respectively. The method makes Bacillariophyta and Dinophyta more distinguishable when the fourth-derivative spectra are compared with the chlorophyll fluorescence excitation spectra. It can be used not only to discriminate the two groups of algaes, but also to reduce the effect of noise. The fluorescence peaks in the fourth-derivative spectra are proved to be stable.

  16. Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Milo D. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    This publication contains the proceedings of the Fourth Computational Aeroacoustics (CAA) Workshop on Benchmark Problems. In this workshop, as in previous workshops, the problems were devised to gauge the technological advancement of computational techniques to calculate all aspects of sound generation and propagation in air directly from the fundamental governing equations. A variety of benchmark problems have been previously solved ranging from simple geometries with idealized acoustic conditions to test the accuracy and effectiveness of computational algorithms and numerical boundary conditions; to sound radiation from a duct; to gust interaction with a cascade of airfoils; to the sound generated by a separating, turbulent viscous flow. By solving these and similar problems, workshop participants have shown the technical progress from the basic challenges to accurate CAA calculations to the solution of CAA problems of increasing complexity and difficulty. The fourth CAA workshop emphasized the application of CAA methods to the solution of realistic problems. The workshop was held at the Ohio Aerospace Institute in Cleveland, Ohio, on October 20 to 22, 2003. At that time, workshop participants presented their solutions to problems in one or more of five categories. Their solutions are presented in this proceedings along with the comparisons of their solutions to the benchmark solutions or experimental data. The five categories for the benchmark problems were as follows: Category 1:Basic Methods. The numerical computation of sound is affected by, among other issues, the choice of grid used and by the boundary conditions. Category 2:Complex Geometry. The ability to compute the sound in the presence of complex geometric surfaces is important in practical applications of CAA. Category 3:Sound Generation by Interacting With a Gust. The practical application of CAA for computing noise generated by turbomachinery involves the modeling of the noise source mechanism as a

  17. Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatt, John F.; Gende, Scott M.

    2007-01-01

    Foreword Glacier Bay was established as a National Monument in 1925, in part to protect its unique character and natural beauty, but also to create a natural laboratory to examine evolution of the glacial landscape. Today, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve is still a place of profound natural beauty and dynamic landscapes. It also remains a focal point for scientific research and includes continuing observations begun decades ago of glacial processes and terrestrial ecosystems. In recent years, research has focused on glacial-marine interactions and ecosystem processes that occur below the surface of the bay. In October 2004, Glacier Bay National Park convened the fourth in a series of science symposiums to provide an opportunity for researchers, managers, interpreters, educators, students and the general public to share knowledge about Glacier Bay. The Fourth Glacier Bay Science Symposium was held in Juneau, Alaska, rather than at the Park, reflecting a desire to maximize attendance and communication among a growing and diverse number of stakeholders interested in science in the park. More than 400 people attended the symposium. Participants provided 46 oral presentations and 41 posters covering a wide array of disciplines including geology, glaciology, oceanography, wildlife and fisheries biology, terrestrial and marine ecology, socio-cultural research and management issues. A panel discussion focused on the importance of connectivity in Glacier Bay research, and keynote speakers (Gary Davis and Terry Chapin) spoke of long-term monitoring and ecological processes. These proceedings include 56 papers from the symposium. A summary of the Glacier Bay Science Plan-itself a subject of a meeting during the symposium and the result of ongoing discussions between scientists and resource managers-also is provided. We hope these proceedings illustrate the diversity of completed and ongoing scientific studies, conducted within the Park. To this end, we invited all

  18. EDITORIAL: The Fourth International Workshop on Microfactories (IWMF'04)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jiaru; Maeda, Ryutaro

    2005-10-01

    This special section of Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering is devoted to the fourth International Workshop on Microfactories. After the first three successful Workshops, which took place in Tsukuba, Japan in 1998, Fribourg, Switzerland in 2000 and Minneapolis, USA in 2002, the fourth (IWMF'04) was held in Shanghai, China on 15-17 October 2004. The concept of the `microfactory' and miniaturized production systems was first proposed by the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory in Japan who demonstrated the feasibility of downsizing energy-saving, distributed and eventually environmentally conscious manufacturing systems. There is incredible potential in reducing the physical scale of numerous processes related to the manufacture of many forms of future dense `mechatronic' products and in the manipulation of microscopic and nanoscopic objects and materials for the benefit of mankind. Small systems capable of these operations can be referred to as `microfactories'. A worldwide effort is currently underway to bring such microfactories to fruition. MEMS, MST and micromachines are regarded as synonyms, but they do not necessarily have the same meaning. In particular, differences can be found in their technological approaches. Roughly speaking, research and development in the USA is based primarily on surface or bulk silicon micromachining processes, and the ideal realization of MEMS seems to be the monolithic device. The European approach also focuses on integration between electronics and mechanics but, especially in connection with the development of `µTAS', it also demands the integration of non-mechanical components into the system. In Japan the approaches for MST are said to be rather less focused. Besides the above-mentioned `classical' microsystem technologies, down-scaling of conventional manufacturing methods, or non-silicon based device processing within this field, completely new technological methods are also considered as `microsystem technologies

  19. Climate change and its linkages with development, equity and sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPCC Working Groups 2 and 3 (on impacts and adaptation, and on mitigation, respectively) have taken the initiative to organise a number of expert meetings. The main goals of the meetings are: (a) to increase co-ordination among, and inform lead authors about development, equity and sustainability (DES) issues and climate change; and (b) to better place the IPCC Third Assessment Report in the context of DES, through enhanced access to the best available scientific, technical economic and social information from across the world. The rapidly growing economies of Asia will play a key role in determining future climate change policy. Thus, the organisation of the first expert meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka, under the able guidance of Professor Mohan Munasinghe, is very appropriate. The conference has provided a crucial first step towards broadening the scope of the IPCC reports, by integrating DES issues into climate change response strategies. This Proceedings volume is also important as a key policy-relevant (but not policy-prescriptive) vehicle that will better inform worldwide networks of scientists from different regional, cultural and disciplinary backgrounds, in their pursuit of the best scientific information on the linkages between climate change and sustainable development. refs

  20. Somali Jet Changes under the Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Meijing; FAN Ke; WANG Huijun

    2008-01-01

    Somali Jet changes will influence the variability of Asian monsoon and climate. How would Somali Jet changes respond to the global warming in the future climate? To address this question, we first evaluate the ability of IPCC-AR4 climate models and perform the 20th century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiments to reproduce the observational features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) for the period 1976-1999. Then, we project and discuss the changes of Somali Jet under the climate change of Scenario A2 (SRESA2) for the period 2005-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC-AR4 models have performed better in describing the climatological features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulations. Analysis of Somali Jet intensity changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2005-2099 shows a weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the strongest Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060), as well as the weakest Somali Jet at the end of the 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet is weakening in general, and it becomes the weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that the relationship between the intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is reflected differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC-AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate of China, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or future climate changes need to be further clarified.

  1. Hanford Seismic Annual Report and Fourth Quarter Report for Fiscal Year 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    AC Rohay; DC Hartshorn; SP Reidel

    1999-12-07

    Hanford Seismic Monitoring provides an uninterrupted collection of high-quality raw and processed seismic data from the Hanford Seismic Network (HSN) for the U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors. Hanford Seismic Monitoring also locates and identifies sources of seismic activity and monitors changes in the historical pattern of seismic activity at the Hanford Site. The data are compiled, archived, and published for use by the Hanford Site for waste management, Natural Phenomena Hazards assessments, and engineering design and construction. In addition, the seismic monitoring organization works with the Hanford Site Emergency Services Organization to provide assistance in the event of a significant earthquake on the Hanford Site. The HSN and the Eastern Washington Regional Network. (EWRN) consist of 40 individual sensor sites and 15 radio relay sites maintained by the Hanford Seismic Monitoring staff. A major reconfiguration of the HSN was initiated at the end of this quarter and the results will be reported in the first quarter report for next fiscal year (FY2000). For the HSN, there were 390 triggers during the fourth quarter of fiscal year(FY) 1999 on the primary recording system. With the implementation of dual backup systems during the second quarter of the fiscal year and an overall increase observed in sensitivity, a total of 1632 triggers were examined, identified, and processed during this fiscal year. During the fourth quarter, 24 seismic events were located by the HSN within the reporting region of 46 degrees to 47 degrees north latitude and 119 degrees to 120 degrees west longitude 9 were earthquakes in the Columbia River Basalt Group, 2 were earthquakes in the pre-basalt sediments, 10 were earthquakes in the crystalline basement; and 2 were quarry blasts. One earthquake appears to be related to a major geologic structure, 14 earthquakes occurred in known swarm areas, and 7 earthquakes were random occurrences.

  2. CERN announces the fourth annual Beamline for Schools competition

    CERN Multimedia

    BL4S team

    2016-01-01

    CERN is pleased to announce the fourth annual Beamline for Schools (BL4S) competition. Once again, in 2017, a fully equipped beamline will be made available at CERN for students. As in previous years, two teams will be invited to the Laboratory to execute the experiments they proposed in their applications. The 2017 competition is being made possible thanks to support from the Alcoa Foundation for the second consecutive year.   The competition is open to teams of high-school students aged 16 or older who, if they win, are invited (with two supervisors) to CERN to carry out their experiment. Teams must have at least five students but there is no upper limit to a team’s size (although just nine students per winning team will be invited to CERN). Teams may be composed of pupils from a single school, or from a number of schools working together. As science-loving mega-celebrity Will.I.Am told us: “If you’re interested in science, technology, engineering or ...

  3. The Fourth US Naval Observatory CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC4)

    CERN Document Server

    Zacharias, Norbert; Girard, Terry; Henden, Arne; Bartlett, Jennifer; Monet, Dave; Zacharias, Marion

    2012-01-01

    The fourth United States Naval Observatory (USNO) CCD Astrograph Catalog, UCAC4 was released in August 2012 (double-sided DVD and CDS data center Vizier catalog I/322). It is the final release in this series and contains over 113 million objects; over 105 million of them with proper motions. UCAC4 is an updated version of UCAC3 with about the same number of stars also covering all-sky. Bugs were fixed, Schmidt plate survey data were avoided, and precise 5-band photometry were added. Astrograph observations have been supplemented for bright stars by FK6, Hipparcos and Tycho-2 data to compile a UCAC4 star catalog complete to about magnitude R = 16. Epoch 1998 to 2004 positions are obtained from observations with the 20 cm aperture USNO Astrograph's red lens, equipped with a 4k by 4k CCD. Mean positions and proper motions are derived by combining these observations with over 140 ground- and space-based catalogs, including Hipparcos/Tycho and the AC2000.2, as well as unpublished measures of over 5000 plates from ...

  4. The fourth International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    This book comprises the papers accepted by the fourth International Conference on Information Science and Cloud Computing (ISCC), which was held from 18-19 December, 2015 in Guangzhou, China. It has 70 papers divided into four parts. The first part focuses on Information Theory with 20 papers; the second part emphasizes Machine Learning also containing 21 papers; in the third part, there are 21 papers as well in the area of Control Science; and the last part with 8 papers is dedicated to Cloud Science. Each part can be used as an excellent reference by engineers, researchers and students who need to build a knowledge base of the most current advances and state-of-practice in the topics covered by the ISCC conference. Special thanks go to Professor Deyu Qi, General Chair of ISCC 2015, for his leadership in supervising the organization of the entire conference; Professor Tinghuai Ma, Program Chair, and members of program committee for evaluating all the submissions and ensuring the selection of only the highest quality papers; and the authors for sharing their ideas, results and insights. We sincerely hope that you enjoy reading papers included in this book.

  5. Robust Optimization of Fourth Party Logistics Network Design under Disruptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Fourth Party Logistics (4PL network faces disruptions of various sorts under the dynamic and complex environment. In order to explore the robustness of the network, the 4PL network design with consideration of random disruptions is studied. The purpose of the research is to construct a 4PL network that can provide satisfactory service to customers at a lower cost when disruptions strike. Based on the definition of β-robustness, a robust optimization model of 4PL network design under disruptions is established. Based on the NP-hard characteristic of the problem, the artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA and the genetic algorithm (GA are developed. The effectiveness of the algorithms is tested and compared by simulation examples. By comparing the optimal solutions of the 4PL network for different robustness level, it is indicated that the robust optimization model can evade the market risks effectively and save the cost in the maximum limit when it is applied to 4PL network design.

  6. Fourth Data Challenge for the ALICE data acquisition system

    CERN Multimedia

    Maximilien Brice

    2003-01-01

    The ALICE experiment will study quark-gluon plasma using beams of heavy ions, such as those of lead. The particles in the beams will collide thousands of times per second in the detector and each collision will generate an event containing thousands of charged particles. Every second, the characteristics of tens of thousands of particles will have to be recorded. Thus, to be effective, the data acquisition system (DAQ) must meet extremely strict performance criteria. To this end, the ALICE Data Challenges entail step-by-step testing of the DAQ with existing equipment that is sufficiently close to the final equipment to provide a reliable indication of performance. During the fourth challenge, in 2002, a data acquisition rate of 1800 megabytes per second was achieved by using some thirty parallel-linked PCs running the specially developed DATE software. During the final week of tests in December 2002, the team also tested the Storage Tek linear magnetic tape drives. Their bandwidth is 30 megabytes per second a...

  7. Direct detection of fourth generation Majorana neutrino dark matter

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Yu-Feng

    2012-01-01

    Heavy stable fourth generation Majorana neutrinos contribute to a small fraction of the relic density of dark matter (DM) in the Universe. Due to its relatively strong coupling to the standard model particles, it can be probed by the current direct and indirect DM detection experiments even it is a subdominant component of the halo DM. We show that the current Xenon100 data constrain the mass of the stable Majorana neutrino to be greater than the mass of the top quark. The effective spin-independent cross section for the neutrino elastic scattering off nucleon is predicted to be $\\sim 1.5\\times 10^{-44} cm^2$, which is insensitive to the neutrino mass and mixing and can be reached by the direct DM detection experiments in the near future. In the same mass region the predicted effective spin-dependent cross section for the heavy neutrino scattering off proton is in the range of $2\\times 10^{-40} cm^2\\sim 2\\times 10^{-39} cm^2$, which is within the reach of the ongoing DM indirect search experiments. We demonst...

  8. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.70C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  9. Implications of and possible responses to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahiluoto, Helena; Rötter, Reimund

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen food insecurity and seriously undermines rural development prospects. It makes it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals and ensure a sustainable future beyond 2015. Findings from the recent 4th assessment report of IPCC, Working Group II indicate that already towards 2050 with respect to food crops yield losses between 10 and 30 % can be expected as compared to current conditions in large parts of Africa, including Western, Eastern and southern...

  10. A coming anarchy? : Pathways from climate change to violent conflict in East Africa

    OpenAIRE

    van Baalen, Sebastian; Mobjörk, Malin

    2016-01-01

    The warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and will have a strong impact on the security of humans and states alike. In the past half-century the climate system has changed in unprecedented ways and future climate change and variability will include long-lasting alterations to all components of the climate system. With the warming of the climate system and the recognition of the implications that this has for the availab...

  11. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  13. Climate change - The Macedonia's First National Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impacts, consequences and concerns of the international community; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Activities in the Republic of Macedonia, establishing the Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and the National Climate Change Committee. Preparation of the Macedonia's First National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Analyzing on the thematic areas of the Nationals Communications. The inventory of greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions was prepared according to IPCC Guidelines (IPCC), taking into consideration the three main GHGs:carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O). The main sources of CO2 emissions are the electricity production, the production and the transport. GHG abatement analysis and projections of emissions are prepared in accordance to the Macedonian economy and possibilities for development. The analysis of the energy sector is elaborated in a most advanced way, especially regarding the electricity production. According to the IS92a scenario (prepared by IPCC) the average annual temperature in Macedonia could arise for 4,6o C by 2100, and the average summer temperature could arise for 5.1o C. The average sum of precipitation will decrease for 6.3% in 2100, but the most alarming is the sum of precipitation in summer, which could decrease for 2.5%. Venerability assessment and adaptation measures are elaborated in the following sectors: agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources and human health. The National Action Plan sets out the objectives and initial points for undertaking measures, contributing to the reduction of GHG emissions at national level. (Author)

  14. The contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijbooms, E.; Groen, M.A.; Verhoeven, L.T.W.

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the contribution of executive functions to narrative writing in fourth grade children, and evaluated to what extent executive functions contribute differentially to different levels of narrative composition. The written skills of 102 Dutch children in fourth grade were

  15. The impact of the fourth SM family on the Higgs observability at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Arik, E; Sultansoy, S

    2007-01-01

    It is shown that if the fourth SM fermion family exists then the Higgs boson could be observed at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of few fb-1. The Higgs discovery potential for different channels is discussed in the presence of the fourth SM family.

  16. ON THE INSTABILITY OF SOLUTIONS TO A NONLINEAR VECTOR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION OF FOURTH ORDER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a new result related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear vector differential equation of fourth order.Our result includes and improves an instability result in the previous literature,which is related to the instability of the zero solution to a nonlinear scalar differential equation of fourth order.

  17. An endoscopic, cadaveric analysis of the roof of the fourth ventricle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salma, Asem; Yeremeyeva, Esmiralda; Baidya, Nishanta B; Sayers, Martin Peter; Ammirati, Mario

    2013-05-01

    We performed endoscopic dissections of the roof of the fourth ventricle in eight fresh human cadaveric heads to characterize the endoscopic anatomy of the roof of the fourth ventricle and the anatomical configuration of the structures forming its roof. We also made three-dimensional (3D) silicone casts of the fourth ventricle in seven formalin-fixed specimens to evaluate the 3D configuration of the structures that create the roof of the fourth ventricle. The roof of the fourth ventricle can be divided into three zones. The upper zone is formed by the superior cerebellar peduncle and superior medullary velum and is associated with the lingula. The middle zone is formed by the inferior cerebellar peduncles and inferior medullary velum and is associated with the nodule in the midline and with the peduncle of the flocculus. The lower zone is formed by the tela choroidea and is associated with the tonsils. The 3D shape of the roof the fourth ventricle resembles that of a rhomboid-based pyramid; the edges of the base represent the borders of the ventricle, and the apex is the cerebellar fastigium. The lateral recess is shaped like a triangular-based pyramid, with its base connected to the cavity of the fourth ventricle and its tip opening into the lateral cerebellomedullary cistern through the foramen of Luschka. Our results may help in the endoscopic exploration of and microsurgical approaches to the fourth ventricle through its roof. PMID:23507044

  18. Differentiated Jurisprudence? Examining Students' Fourth Amendment Court Decisions by Region of Country

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Mario S., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined federal and state court decisions related to student Fourth Amendment rights following the "New Jersey v. T.L.O." ruling in 1985. There has been minimal research in judicial treatment of students' Fourth Amendment rights across regions of the country and less to what extent regional rulings implicitly or explicitly transmit…

  19. PPN-limit of Fourth Order Gravity inspired by Scalar-Tensor Gravity

    OpenAIRE

    Capozziello, S.; Troisi, A.

    2005-01-01

    Based on the {\\it dynamical} equivalence between higher order gravity and scalar-tensor gravity the PPN-limit of fourth order gravity is discussed. We exploit this analogy developing a fourth order gravity version of the Eddington PPN-parameters. As a result, Solar System experiments can be reconciled with higher order gravity, if physical constraints descending from experiments are fulfilled.

  20. Ten years of HIV testing with fourth generation assays: The Amsterdam experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Jurriaans; N.K.T. Back; K.C. Wolthers

    2011-01-01

    Serological HIV assays combining detection of HIV antigen and antibodies are referred to as fourth generation assays. Fourth generation assays were implemented in Europe for routine patient testing about 10 years ago. The Academic Medical Center is one of the main HIV treatment centers in the Nether

  1. The Effects of a Teacher-Guided Library Selection Program on Fourth-Grade Reading Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Sherri M.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this mixed methods study was to examine the impact that a teacher-guided library selection program had on overall reading scores and how this program may or may not promote reading improvement of fourth-grade students at a small suburban school in western New York. Forty fourth graders were used as the sample population, which was…

  2. A rare case of retained fourth molar teeth in maxilla and mandible. Case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahnama Mansur

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a case of the rarely occurring totally retained fourth molar teeth simultaneously in maxilla and mandible. The appearance of supernumerary teeth is a relatively uncommon dental anomaly and it is rare for patients to have impacted fourth molars in two quadrant. The aim of this work is to describe the presence of unilateral (right fourth molars in the maxilla and the mandible in a young female patient aged 24 years. Orthopantomogram revealed impacted lower third molars but also unerupted unilateral (right upper and lower fourth molars. Before orthodontic treatment, the patient was subsequently admitted for removal of third and fourth impacted upper and lower molars under local anesthesia.

  3. On the fourth Diadema species (Diadema-sp from Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seinen Chow

    Full Text Available Four long-spined sea urchin species in the genus Diadema are known to occur around the Japanese Archipelago. Three species (D. savignyi, D. setosum, and D. paucispinum are widely distributed in the Indo-Pacific Ocean. The fourth species was detected by DNA analysis among samples originally collected as D. savignyi or D. setosum in Japan and the Marshall Islands and tentatively designated as Diadema-sp, remaining an undescribed species. We analyzed nucleotide sequences of the cytochrome oxidase I (COI gene in the "D. savignyi-like" samples, and found all 17 individuals collected in the mainland of Japan (Sagami Bay and Kyushu to be Diadema-sp, but all nine in the Ryukyu Archipelago (Okinawa and Ishigaki Islands to be D. savignyi, with large nucleotide sequence difference between them (11.0%±1.7 SE. Diadema-sp and D. savignyi shared Y-shaped blue lines of iridophores along the interambulacrals, but individuals of Diadema-sp typically exhibited a conspicuous white streak at the fork of the Y-shaped blue iridophore lines, while this feature was absent in D. savignyi. Also, the central axis of the Y-shaped blue lines of iridophores was approximately twice as long as the V-component in D. savignyi whereas it was of similar length in Diadema-sp. Two parallel lines were observed to constitute the central axis of the Y-shaped blue lines in both species, but these were considerably narrower in Diadema-sp. Despite marked morphological and genetic differences, it appears that Diadema-sp has been mis-identified as D. savignyi for more than half a century.

  4. A guide to the evaluation of fourth cranial nerve palsies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee; Hayman; Beaver; Prager; Kelder; Scasta; Avilla; von Noorden GK; Tang

    1998-12-01

    PURPOSE To devise a cost-effective guide for the evaluation of fourth nerve palsies (FNP). METHODS A review of the pertinent English language literature was performed to devise a guide for the evaluation (including neuroimaging) of FNP. The authors report a retrospective review of imaging studies performed on 206 patients with FNP. RESULTS The literature was used to develop the imaging guide. In the retrospective chart review of 206 patients from two tertiary care centers, 28 patients (13.6%) underwent a computed tomography scan and/or a magnetic resonance scan. Of these patients, five had associated neurological symptoms (non-isolated), one was traumatic, five were congenital, four were vasculopathic, eleven were non-vasculopathic, and two were progressive. Following the recommendations of the imaging guide, the five isolated congenital FNP and the four isolated vasculopathic FNP would not have undergone neuroimaging studies. The total costs of these neuroimaging studies in these nine patients were 19,000 dollars. Four patients in the retrospective review with associated neurological deficits (non-isolated) should have undergone neuroimaging according to the guide, but did not. CONCLUSIONS Although the evaluation of FNP can be difficult, the decision to order neuroimaging can be improved by using an imaging guide. An imaging guide for the evaluation of FNP may allow more appropriate and cost-effective imaging of these patients. Isolated congenital, old traumatic, or vasculopathic FNP do not require neuroimaging studies. Patients with non-isolated FNP should have directed neuroimaging studies based upon the results of clinical examination.

  5. Preface to the first monograph: The Fourth Psychiatric Revolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajai R. Singh

    2004-05-01

    Full Text Available At present, psychiatry is in the midst of a fourth revolution. The first revolution was the so-called Moral Treatment which involved the activism of Phileppe Pinel (1745-1826 and William Tuke (1732-1819, as also the efforts of Dorothea Dix (1802-1887. This resulted in destigmatization of the lunatic label which had earlier meant treating the insane in a dehumanizing manner e.g.. chaining them to walls, displaying them for money etc. It resulted in the transition to custodial care and the opening of mental hospitals. The second psychiatric revolution was the Mental Hygiene Movement heralded by the eye­opening works of Elizabeth Packard (Modern Persecution or Insane Hospital Unveiled and Clifford Beers (1876-1943; A Mind That Found Itself which was furthered by, amongst others, pioneers like Adolf Meyer (1866-1950 and William James (1842-1910. This was followed by the third Psychiatric revolution, that of the Community Psychiatry Movement. This involved community participation, removal of restrictions, comprehensive set of services multi-disciplinary in nature, active consumer participation, mental health consultancy and preventive measures. This well intentioned grand movement had its problems, as all such grand movement must indeed have. It became the fountain­source of a fresh crop of difficulties related to transinstitutionalization in boarding and halfway houses, with increased rates of hospital admission, and the 'revolving door syndrome'. Moreover, it lead to an ominous rise in contact between the criminal justice system and the mentally ill as they moved more freely in the community.Today, we are in the midst of a silent by strong fourth revolution. Firstly, this revolution reiterates its strong linkage with the mainstream of medicine. Secondly, it bases itself on strong, empirical findings based on rigorous methodological studies, mainly biological. The major paradigm shift of contemporary psychiatry is towards methodological rigour on

  6. National report card on energy efficiency: Fourth annual report card on government activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-04-01

    The objective of this fourth annual report card produced by the Canadian Energy Efficiency Alliance is, as before, to identify government commitments to energy efficiency and to raise the awareness and importance of providing the necessary mechanisms that support energy efficiency in the market place. For the first time this year, the report card includes an assessment of the role of crown utilities and local distribution utilities in the promotion of energy efficiency. Their results were combined with those of the provincial government to develop a aggregate grade for each province. The ratings are based on ten categories, encompassing building codes, energy efficiency legislation, regulatory infrastructure, programs and public outreach, in-house programs, innovative new programs, performance and evaluation, climate change and Voluntary Change Registry reporting, and access to government information. Performance is rated by way of a narrative summary and a letter grade which represents the aggregate of performance in all ten categories. Best performance was recorded by Quebec, followed by the Yukon, the Federal Government, the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Manitoba, Alberta, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan, in that order.

  7. Potential hydrologic changes in the Amazon by the end of the 21st century and the groundwater buffer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under a projected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCC HadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrology model that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologic changes in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assuming unchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and will the groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conducted four 10 yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without the groundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET will increase due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite a decrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain PET or atmospheric demand-limited. Second, in the eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despite increasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soil water or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the eastern Amazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth, river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in the southeastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we found that the slow soil drainage constrained by shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress, particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if groundwater buffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than that projected by most climate models. (letter)

  8. Potential Hydrologic Changes in the Amazon By the End of the 21st Century and the Groundwater Buffer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Y. N.; Fan, Y.; Miguez-Macho, G.

    2014-12-01

    This study contributes to the discussions on the future of the Amazon rainforest under a projected warmer-drier climate from the perspectives of land hydrology. Using IPCC HadGEM2-ES simulations of the present and future Amazon climate to drive a land hydrology model that accounts for groundwater constraint on land drainage, we assess potential hydrologic changes in soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), water table depth, and river discharge, assuming unchanged vegetation. We ask: how will ET regimes shift at the end of the 21st century, and will the groundwater help buffer the anticipated water stress in some places-times? We conducted four 10yr model simulations, at the end of 20th and 21st century, with and without the groundwater. Our model results suggest that, first, over the western and central Amazon, ET will increase due to increased potential evapotranspiration (PET) with warmer temperatures, despite a decrease in soil water; that is, ET will remain atmosphere or demand-limited. Second, in the eastern Amazon dry season, ET will decrease in response to decreasing soil water, despite increasing PET demand; that is, ET in these regions-seasons will remain or become more soil water or supply-limited. Third, the area of water-limited regions will likely expand in the eastern Amazonia, with the dry season, as indicated by soil water store, even drier and longer. Fourth, river discharge will be significantly reduced over the entire Amazon but particularly so in the southeastern Amazon. By contrasting model results with and without the groundwater, we found that the slow soil drainage constrained by a shallow groundwater can buffer soil water stress, particularly in southeastern Amazon dry season. Our model suggests that, if the groundwater buffering effect is accounted for, the future Amazon water stress may be less than projected by most climate models.

  9. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies — A Danish water management example

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, Martin;

    2013-01-01

    be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts......We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could...... are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level...

  10. The GLOBE climate legislation study: a review of climate change legislation in 66 countries: fourth edition

    OpenAIRE

    Nachmany, Michal; Fankhauser, Samuel; Townshend, Terry; Collins, Murray; Landesman, Tucker; Matthews, Adam; Pavese, Carolina; Rietig, Katharina; SCHLEIFER, Philip; Setzer, Joana

    2014-01-01

    The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study is the most comprehensive audit of climate legislation across 66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of global manmade greenhouse gas emissions. It is produced by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics in collaboration with GLOBE International. The 4th edition of the Study was formally launched at the 2nd GLOBE Climate Legislation Summit held at the Senate of the United States of America and at the World Bank in Was...

  11. Seismological analysis of the fourth North Korean nuclear test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Ceranna, Lars

    2016-04-01

    The Democratic People's Republic of Korea has conducted its fourth underground nuclear explosions on 06.01.2016 at 01:30 (UTC). The explosion was clearly detected and located by the seismic network of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Additional seismic stations of international earthquake monitoring networks at regional distances, which are not part of the IMS, are used to precisely estimate the epicenter of the event in the North Hamgyong province (41.38°N / 129.05°E). It is located in the area of the North Korean Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where the verified nuclear tests from 2006, 2009, and 2013 were conducted as well. The analysis of the recorded seismic signals provides the evidence, that the event was originated by an explosive source. The amplitudes as well as the spectral characteristics of the signals were examined. Furthermore, the similarity of the signals with those from the three former nuclear tests suggests very similar source type. The seismograms at the 8,200 km distant IMS station GERES in Germany, for example, show the same P phase signal for all four explosions, differing in the amplitude only. The comparison of the measured amplitudes results in the increasing magnitude with the chronology of the explosions from 2006 (mb 4.2), 2009 (mb 4.8) until 2013 (mb 5.1), whereas the explosion in 2016 had approximately the same magnitude as that one three years before. Derived from the magnitude, a yield of 14 kt TNT equivalents was estimated for both explosions in 2013 and 2016; in 2006 and 2009 yields were 0.7 kt and 5.4 kt, respectively. However, a large inherent uncertainty for these values has to be taken into account. The estimation of the absolute yield of the explosions depends very much on the local geological situation and the degree of decoupling of the explosive from the surrounding rock. Due to the missing corresponding information, reliable magnitude-yield estimation for the

  12. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  13. Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Management in the Skagit River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEE, S.; Hamlet, A. F.

    2012-12-01

    Based on global climate model (GCM) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and subsequent hydrologic modeling studies for the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the Skagit River Basin are likely to be substantial under natural (unregulated) conditions. To assess the combined effects of increasing extreme flows (floods and low flows) and dam operations that determine impacts to regulated flow, a new integrated daily time step reservoir operations model was built for the Skagit River Basin. The model simulates current reservoir operating policies for historical flow conditions and for projected flows for the 2040s and 2080s using five different GCMs with the A1B emissions scenarios, and estimates sediment loading. By simulating alternative reservoir operating policies that provide increased flood storage and start flood evacuation one month earlier, prospects for adaptation in response to increased flood risks are considered. Results from the daily time step reservoir operations modeling show that regulated hydrologic extremes in the basin will likely become more intense. The regulated 100-year flood is projected to increase substantially in the future in comparison with historical regulated 100-year flood (23% by the 2040s and 40% by the 2080s). The regulated extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) are also projected to decrease by about 30 % in the future. Alternative flood control operations (earlier and larger drafting of reservoirs) are shown to be largely ineffective in mitigating the increased flood risks in the lower Skagit, supporting the argument that climate change adaptation efforts will need to focus primarily on improving management of the floodplain, rather than focusing on modifying flood control operations in existing headwater projects. Projected changes in the Skagit River's flow regime are shown to have dramatic effects on estimated total suspended sediment load in the

  14. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Cook

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4 and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May–September reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1 a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2 a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10–15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry

  15. Introduction to the symposium theme : climate change in fragmented landscapes: can we develop spatial adaptation strategies?

    OpenAIRE

    Verboom, J.; Vos, C.C.

    2007-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gasses, man has a discernible influence on climate, and this is expected to be a long-term phenomenon affecting the environment in the forthcoming decades or even centuries. Since climate is a key driving force for ecological processes, climate change is likely to exert considerable impact on ecosystems. Since nature policy worldwide is often based upon policy plans which do not ...

  16. Xylem Variability as a Proxy for Environmental and Climate Change in Corsica During the Past Millennium

    OpenAIRE

    Hetzer, Timo

    2013-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is considered as one of the hotspots of future climate change (IPCC 2007; Christensen et al. 2007). To assess the impacts of climate change in different regions, it is helpful to have a look at the past. Proxies, i.e. data derived from different environmental archives, contain climatic or environmental information from the past. On the island of Corsica in the center of the western Mediterranean basin, high-resolution climate reconstructions for the past millennium ar...

  17. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Ø; Sandanger, Torkjel M.

    2011-01-01

    Background: In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are d...

  18. Climate change and environmental impacts on maternal and newborn health with focus on Arctic populations.

    OpenAIRE

    Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented a report on global warming and the impact of human activities on global warming. Later the Lancet commission identified six ways human health could be affected. Among these were not environmental factors which are also believed to be important for human health. In this paper we therefore focus on environmental factors, climate change and the predicted effects on maternal and newborn health. Arctic issues are discussed ...

  19. CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal

    OpenAIRE

    Michal Belda; Petr Skalák; Aleš Farda; Tomáš Halenka; Michel Déqué; Gabriella Csima; Judit Bartholy; Csaba Torma; Constanta Boroneant; Mihaela Caian; Valery Spiridonov

    2015-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective...

  20. Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

    OpenAIRE

    Davies-Barnard, T.; P. J. Valdes; Singarayer, J. S.; Pacifico, F. M.; Jones, C. D.

    2014-01-01

    Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the n...

  1. Under What Circumstances Do Wood Products from Native Forests Benefit Climate Change Mitigation?

    OpenAIRE

    Heather Keith; David Lindenmayer; Andrew Macintosh; Brendan Mackey

    2015-01-01

    Climate change mitigation benefits from the land sector are not being fully realised because of uncertainty and controversy about the role of native forest management. The dominant policy view, as stated in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, is that sustainable forest harvesting yielding wood products, generates the largest mitigation benefit. We demonstrate that changing native forest management from commercial harvesting to conservation can make an important contribution to mitigation. Con...

  2. The Fourth R: A School-Based Adolescent Dating Violence Prevention Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Wolfe

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a school-based primary prevention program (The Fourth R to prevent adolescent dating violence, and related risk behaviors. The cornerstone of The Fourth R is a 21-lesson skillbased curriculum delivered by teachers who receive specialized training, that promotes healthy relationships, and targets violence, high-risk sexual behavior, and substance use among adolescents. The Fourth R was evaluated in a cluster randomized trial in 20 schools. Results indicated that teaching youth healthy relationships and skills as part of their curriculum reduced physical dating violence, and increased condom use 2.5 years later.

  3. Bound Energy Masses of Mesons Containing the Fourth Generation and Iso-singlet Quarks

    OpenAIRE

    Ikhdair, Sameer M.; Sever, Ramazan

    2005-01-01

    The fourth Standard Model (SM) family quarks and weak iso-singlet quarks The fourth Standard Model (SM) family quarks and weak iso-singlet quarks predicted by ${\\rm E}_{6\\text{}}$ GUT are considered. The spin-average of the pseudoscalar $\\eta_{4}(n^{1}S_{0})$ and vector $\\psi_{4}(n^{3}S_{1})$ quarkonium binding masses of the new mesons formed by the fourth Standard Model (SM) family and iso-singlet ${\\rm E}_{6\\text{}}$ with their mixings to ordinary quarks are investigated. Further, the fine ...

  4. Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project quarterly environmental data summary (QEDS) for fourth quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-02-01

    This report contains the Quarterly Environmental Data Summary (QEDS) for the fourth quarter of 1998 in support of the Weldon Spring Site Remedial Action Project Federal Facilities Agreement. The data, except for air monitoring data and site KPA generated data (uranium analyses) were received from the contract laboratories, verified by the Weldon Spring Site verification group, and merged into the database during the fourth quarter of 1998. KPA results for on-site total uranium analyses performed during fourth quarter 1998 are included. Air monitoring data presented are the most recent complete sets of quarterly data.

  5. Generation and synchronization of N-scroll chaotic and hyperchaotic attractors in fourth-order systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Si-Min; Ma Zai-Guang; Qiu Shui-Sheng; Peng Shi-Guo; Lin Qing-Hua

    2004-01-01

    Based on our previous works and Lyapunov stability theory, this paper studies the generation and synchronization of N-scroll chaotic and hyperchaotic attractors in fourth-order systems. A fourth-order circuit, by introducing additional breakpoints in the modified Chua oscillator, is implemented for the study of generation and synchronization of N-scroll chaotic attractors. This confirms the consistency of theoretical calculation, numerical simulation and circuit experiment.Furthermore, we give a refined and extended study of generating and synchronizing N-scroll hyperchaotic attractors in the fourth-order MCK system and report the new theoretical result, which is verified by computer simulations.

  6. An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica

    OpenAIRE

    Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oreana

    2014-01-01

    The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic ...

  7. PREFACE: Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Mariano; Cavaglia, Marco; Nelson, Jeanette E.

    2006-04-01

    The formulation of a quantum theory of gravity seems to be the unavoidable endpoint of modern theoretical physics. Yet the quantum description of the gravitational field remains elusive. The year 2005 marks the tenth anniversary of the First Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity, held in Dubna (Russia) due to the efforts of Alexandre T. Filippov (JINR, Dubna) and Vittorio de Alfaro (University of Torino, Italy). At the heart of this initiative was the desire for an international forum where the status and perspectives of research in quantum gravity could be discussed from the broader viewpoint of modern gauge field theories. Since the Dubna meeting, an increasing number of scientists has joined this quest. Progress was reported in two other conferences in this series: in Santa Margherita Ligure (Italy) in 1996 and in Villasimius (Sardinia, Italy) in 1999. After a few years of ``working silence'' the time was now mature for a new gathering. The Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity (QG05) was held in Cala Gonone (Sardinia, Italy) from Monday 12th to Friday 16th September 2005. Surrounded by beautiful scenery, 100 scientists from 23 countries working in field theory, general relativity and related areas discussed the latest developments in the quantum treatment of gravitational systems. The QG05 edition covered many of the issues that had been addressed in the previous meetings and new interesting developments in the field, such as brane world models, large extra dimensions, analogue models of gravity, non-commutative techniques etc. The format of the meeting was similar to the previous ones. The programme consisted of invited plenary talks and parallel sessions on cosmology, quantum gravity, strings and phenomenology, gauge theories and quantisation and black holes. A major goal was to bring together senior scientists and younger people at the beginning of their scientific career. We were able to give financial support to both

  8. Fourth Annual Nursing Leadership Congress: "Driving Patient Safety Through Transformation" Conference proceedings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinakiewicz, Diane; Smetzer, Judy; Thompson, Pamela; Navarra, Mary Beth; Lambert, Monique

    2009-06-01

    In September 2008, nurse executives from around the country met in Scottsdale, Ariz, to develop practical tools and recommendations for "Driving Patient Safety Through Transformation," the theme of the fourth annual Nursing Leadership Congress. The Congress was made possible through an educational grant from McKesson and Intel in collaboration with sponsorship from the American Organization of Nurse Executives, Institute for Safe Medication Practices and National Patient Safety Foundation. This paper summarizes the Congress plenary sessions and roundtable discussions. Plenaries included the following: *Transformational Leadership: The Role of Leaders in Managing Complex Problems *Using the Baldrige Business Model as the Infrastructure for Creating a Culture of Patient Safety *Prospects for Structural Reform in Health Care Roundtables included the following: *Joy and Meaning in Work *Managing Chronic Care Across the Continuum *The Future of Acute Care Delivery in Light of Changing Reimbursement* Leveraging Transparency to Drive Patient Safety *Collaborative Partnerships for Driving a Patient Safety Agenda *Innovative Solutions for Patient Safety *Implementing the Fundamentals of the Toyota Production Model forHealthcare

  9. Comparison of e-mail communication skills among first- and fourth-year dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakley, Marnie; Horvath, Zsuzsa; Weinberg, Seth M; Bhatt, Jaya; Spallek, Heiko

    2013-11-01

    As e-mail and other forms of electronic communication increase in popularity, it is important for dental schools to consider a curriculum that prepares their graduates to understand and apply effective electronic communication strategies to their patients. Reflecting this shift in communication behavior, the American Medical Association has developed specific e-mail communication guidelines. Some behavioral examples in these guidelines include protecting patients' protected health information (PHI), ensuring proper record keeping, and using professional, courteous, and understandable language. In this study, a sample of first- and fourth-year dental students (n=160) at the University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine participated in an assignment assessing their patient-provider e-mail communication skills. A rubric was used to evaluate and compare the data between dental student classes. The results reveal a generalized lack of compliance with several of these guidelines by both classes (e.g., failure to protect PHI), despite efforts to expose students to these concepts in the curriculum. In an effort to train emerging dentists to function in a rapidly changing technological environment, these findings suggest a need for growth and development of curricula and perhaps guidelines/recommendations for behavioral competencies regarding dental students' use of electronic communication in the patient care environment.

  10. A review of football injuries on third and fourth generation artificial turfs compared with natural turf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Sean; Hume, Patria A; Kara, Stephen

    2011-11-01

    rotational stiffness properties of shoe-surface interfaces, decreased impact attenuation properties of surfaces, differing foot loading patterns and detrimental physiological responses. Changing between surfaces may be a precursor for injury in soccer. In conclusion, studies have provided strong evidence for comparable rates of injury between new generation artificial turfs and natural turfs. An exception is the likely increased risk of ankle injury on third and fourth generation artificial turfs. Therefore, ankle injury prevention strategies must be a priority for athletes who play on artificial turf regularly. Clarification of effects of artificial surfaces on muscle and knee injuries are required given inconsistencies in incidence rate ratios depending on the football code, athlete, gender or match versus training. PMID:21985213

  11. Time-Periodic Solution of a 2D Fourth-Order Nonlinear Parabolic Equation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Xiaopeng Zhao; Changchun Liu

    2014-08-01

    By using the Galerkin method, we study the existence and uniqueness of time-periodic generalized solutions and time-periodic classical solutions to a fourth-order nonlinear parabolic equation in 2D case.

  12. Thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We study thermodynamic and classical instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. These include the BTZ black hole in new massive gravity, Schwarzschild-AdS black hole, and higher-dimensional AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. All thermodynamic quantities which are computed using the Abbot-Deser-Tekin method are used to study thermodynamic instability of AdS black holes. On the other hand, we investigate the s-mode Gregory-Laflamme instability of the massive graviton propagating around the AdS black holes. We establish the connection between the thermodynamic instability and the GL instability of AdS black holes in fourth-order gravity. This shows that the Gubser-Mitra conjecture holds for AdS black holes found from fourth-order gravity

  13. Anomalous single production of the fourth SM family quarks at Tevatron

    CERN Document Server

    Arik, E; Sultansoy, S F

    2003-01-01

    Possible single productions of fourth family u_{4} and d_{4} quarks via anomalous q_{4}qV interactions at Tevatron are studied. Signature of such processes are discussed and compared with the recent results from Tevatron.

  14. Search for anomalous single production of the fourth SM family quark decaying into a light scalar

    CERN Document Server

    Arik, E; Sultansoy, S F

    2003-01-01

    Superjet events observed by the CDF Collaboration are interpreted as anomalous single production of the fourth SM family $u_4$ quark, decaying into a new light scalar particle. The specific predictions of the proposed mechanism are discussed.

  15. Mixed Waste Management Facility Groundwater Monitoring Report, Fourth Quarter 1998 and 1998 Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chase, J.

    1999-04-29

    During fourth quarter 1998, ten constituents exceeded final Primary Drinking Water Standards (PDWS) in groundwater samples from downgradient monitoring wells at the Mixed Waste Management Facility. No constituents exceeded final PDWS in samples from the upgradient monitoring wells.

  16. The Savannah River Site Groundwater Monitoring Program Fourth Quarter 2000 (October thru December 2000)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dukes, M.D.

    2001-08-02

    This report summarizes the Groundwater Monitoring Program conducted by SRS during fourth quarter 2000. It includes the analytical data, field data, data review, quality control, and other documentation for this program.

  17. MULTIPLE POSITIVE SOLUTIONS TO FOURTH-ORDER SINGULAR BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    In this paper,using the Krasnaselskii's fixed point theory in cones and localization method,under more general conditions,the existence of n positive solutions to a class of fourth-order singular boundary value problems is considered.

  18. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  19. Which Fourth-Grade Children Participate in School Breakfast and Do Their Parents Know It?

    OpenAIRE

    Guinn, Caroline H; Baxter, Suzanne Domel; THOMPSON, WILLIAM O.; FRYE, FRANCESCA H. A.; KOPEC, CANDACE T.

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To explore fourth-graders' school breakfast participation by gender and race (black, white) and examine the extent to which parents' responses to “Does this child usually eat school breakfast?” reflected their children's participation.

  20. Clinical, histological, and genetic features of fourth ventricle ependymoma in the elderly. Case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Takuro; Inamasu, Joji; Kanai, Ryuichi; Sasaki, Hikaru; Shinoda, Jun; Hirose, Yuichi

    2012-01-01

    A 71-year-old woman presented with a rare case of geriatric ependymoma originating from the fourth ventricle manifesting as progressive gait and memory disturbance. Imaging studies revealed an extraaxial mass in the fourth ventricle protruding into the right cerebellomedullary cistern, with concomitant obstructive hydrocephalus. Surgery achieved subtotal removal since the tumor tightly adhered to the right vestibular area of the fourth ventricular floor. The histological diagnosis was ependymoma, which was also confirmed by comparative genetic hybridization. Although she developed severe laryngeal edema and worsening of the hydrocephalus postoperatively which required additional treatment, she recovered with residual mild gait disturbance, and was transferred to a rehabilitation facility. Fourth ventricle ependymoma in the elderly is rare. Comparative genetic hybridization may be important in the diagnosis of geriatric ependymoma and in the choice for adjuvant therapy as well as in estimating the prognosis for patients with rare types of ependymoma. PMID:22976148

  1. Fourth NASA Workshop on Computational Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems, part 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Lawrence W., Jr. (Compiler)

    1991-01-01

    A collection of papers presented at the Fourth NASA Workshop on Computational Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems is given. The papers address modeling, systems identification, and control of flexible aircraft, spacecraft and robotic systems.

  2. On the sign-regularity of positive fourth-order differential operators

    OpenAIRE

    Vladimirov, A. A.

    2016-01-01

    It is shown that positivity in $(0,1)\\times (0,1)$ of Green function of positively defined fourth-order ordinary differential operator (with separated boundary conditions) is a criterium of sign-regularity of this operator.

  3. Adenocarcinoma of the third and fourth portions of the duodenum: The capsule endoscopy value

    OpenAIRE

    Paquissi, Feliciano Chanana; Lima, Ana Henriqueta Filipe Bunga Pimentel; Lopes, Maria de Fátima do Nascimento Vieira; Diaz, Francisco Viamontes

    2015-01-01

    Primary adenocarcinoma of the small intestine occurs in over 50% of cases in the duodenum. However, its location in the third and fourth duodenal portions occurs rarely and is a diagnostic challenge. The aim of this work is to report an adenocarcinoma of the third and fourth duodenal portions, emphasizing its diagnostic difficulty and the value of video capsule endoscopy. A man, 40 years old, with no medical history, with abdominal discomfort and progressive fatigue, presented four months ago...

  4. The community's research and development programme on decommissioning of nuclear installations. Fourth annual progress report 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This is the fourth annual progress report on the European Community's programme (1984-88) of research on the decommissioning of nuclear installations. It shows the status of the programme at 31 December 1988. The fourth progress report describes the objectives, scope and work programme of the 72 research contracts concluded, as well as the progress of work achieved and the results obtained in 1988

  5. Block Hybrid Collocation Method with Application to Fourth Order Differential Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Ken Yap

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The block hybrid collocation method with three off-step points is proposed for the direct solution of fourth order ordinary differential equations. The interpolation and collocation techniques are applied on basic polynomial to generate the main and additional methods. These methods are implemented in block form to obtain the approximation at seven points simultaneously. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the method. The method is also applied to solve the fourth order problem from ship dynamics.

  6. Alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma originating between the fourth and fifth metatarsal--case report and literature review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Bolger, J C

    2010-09-01

    We report a case of alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma arising between the fourth and fifth metatarsal. A 13-year-old boy presented to outpatients with a history of pain and swelling in the lateral aspect of his left forefoot. Plain radiographs and MRI showed a soft tissue mass displacing the fourth metatarsal. Percutaneous biopsy revealed an alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma. Staging scans showed advanced metastatic disease. The patient was treated with chemotherapy. This highly malignant lesion remains challenging to diagnose, and difficult to treat successfully.

  7. Joint Use of Third and Fourth Cumulants in Independent Component Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Virta, Joni; Nordhausen, Klaus; Oja, Hannu

    2015-01-01

    The independent component model is a latent variable model where the components of the observed random vector are linear combinations of latent independent variables. The aim is to find an estimate for a transformation matrix back to independent components. In moment-based approaches third cumulants are often neglected in favor of fourth cumulants, even though both approaches have similar appealing properties. This paper considers the joint use of third and fourth cumulants in finding indepen...

  8. An Inquiry Into How Fourth-Grade Students Investigate Their Theories For Learning Scientific Vocabulary

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Tatiana Frederiksen

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACTAN INQUIRY INTO HOW FOURTH-GRADE STUDENTS INVESTIGATE THEIR THEORIES FOR LEARNING SCIENTIFIC VOCABULARYByTatiana F. MillerWhile instructional practices that engage students in developing metacognitive skills and capabilities are likely to be beneficial for all students, they may be particularly beneficial for students who are traditionally less well-served by schools. In this research, two culturally and linguistically diverse groups of fourth-grade students engaged in developing and ...

  9. Fourth-order 2N-storage Runge-Kutta schemes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Mark H.; Kennedy, Christopher A.

    1994-01-01

    A family of five-stage fourth-order Runge-Kutta schemes is derived; these schemes required only two storage locations. A particular scheme is identified that has desirable efficiency characteristics for hyperbolic and parabolic initial (boundary) value problems. This scheme is competitive with the classical fourth-order method (high-storage) and is considerably more efficient and accurate than existing third-order low-storage schemes.

  10. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  11. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  12. Urban Vulnerability and Climate Change in Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud

    IPCC climate change scenarios, which also consider possible changes in urban population, have been developed. Innovative strategies to land use and spatial planning are proposed that seek synergies between the adaptation to climate change and the need to solve social problems. Furthermore, the book......Urbanisation and climate change are among the major challenges for sustainable development in Africa. The overall aim of this book is to present innovative approaches to vulnerability analysis and for enhancing the resilience of African cities against climate change-induced risks. Locally adapted...... explores the role of governance in successfully coping with climate-induced risks in urban areas. The book is unique in that it combines: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences...

  13. Climate - Understanding climate change in order to act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In a first part, the author proposes an overview of considerations about climate change and global warming. He discusses greenhouse gas emissions and their perspectives of evolution (IPCC scenarios, recent assessments, unreachable objectives). He comments and discusses the consequences and effects of climate change and global warming (impact on the biosphere and predictable consequences, the largely unknown issue of oceans). He comments the relationship between warming and meteorological evolutions (what is sure and what is not, what is due to climate change and what is not), and the associated risks and hazards

  14. Modeling of climate change impacts on agriculture, forestry and fishery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes in climate affect agriculture, forest and fisheries. This paper examines the climate change impact on crop production, fishery and forestry using state - of - the - art modeling technique. Crop growth model InfoCrop was used to predict the climate change impacts on the yields of rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh. Historical climate change scenario has little or no negative impacts on rice and wheat yields in Mymensingh and Dinajpur but IPCC climate change scenario has higher negative impacts. There is almost no change in the yields of maize for the historical climate change scenario in the Chittagong, Hill Tracts of but there is a small decrease in the yields of rice and maize for IPCC climate change scenario. A new statistical model to forecast climate change impacts on fishery in the world oceans has been developed. Total climate change impact on fishery in the Indian Ocean is negative and the predictor power is 94.14% for eastern part and 98.59% for the western part. Two models are presented for the mangrove forests of the Sundarbans. To bole volumes of the pioneer, intermediate and climax are simulated for three different logging strategies and the results have been discussed in this paper. (author)

  15. An 'agenda for change': Quantifying climate change impacts on natural resource-based economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacGregor, James; Reid, Hannah; Sahlen, Linda

    2006-10-15

    For climate change adaptation to be beneficial to developing countries, it must begin quickly and this will require domestic political will. The third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made clear that even if the Kyoto Protocol is fully implemented, inertia in climatic systems means that some level of climate change is unavoidable. The countries most vulnerable to CC include many developing nations; while those better-able to adapt and less willing to mitigate are those most guilty of past pollution, including many developed nations.

  16. Surgical Fixation of Fourth and Fifth Metacarpal Shaft Fractures with Flexible Intramedullary Absorbable Rods: Early Clinical Outcomes and Implications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ge Xiong; Zi-Run Xiao; Shi-Gong Guo; Wei Zheng; Lu-Fei Dai

    2015-01-01

    Background:To avoid the irritation of tendons and soft tissues as well as hardware-related problems,we designed an intramedullary fixation with bioabsorbable rods for the treatment of the metacarpal shaft fractures.Methods:Five patients with nine shaft fractures of the fourth and fifth metacarpi were treated with intramedullary absorbable implants and followed up with an average of 4.2 months postoperatively.Results:At final follow-up,all patients achieved fracture union with no signs of inflammatory or subcutaneous effusion.There was no shortening,angulatory,or rotatory deformity.There was almost full active extension range of motion (ROM) of the metacarpophalangeal joints while the active flexion ROM of these joints was 80.7 ± 9.6°.Compared with the contralateral hand,the grip strength of the injured hand was 94.0 ± 9.6%.X-rays showed that the arch of the second to fifth metacarpal heads was smooth.There were no intramedullary lytic changes and soft tissue swellings.Conclusion:The intramedullary absorbable implants are a safe,simple,and practical treatment for fourth and fifth metacarpal fractures with good early clinical outcomes and no significant complications.

  17. Prospective investigation of penile length with newborn male circumcision and second to fourth digit ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong Kwan; Doo, A. Ram; Kim, Joo Heung; Park, Hyung Sub; Do, Jung Mo; Choi, Hwang; Park, Seung Chol; Kim, Myung Ki; Jeong, Young Beom; Kim, Hyung Jim; Kim, Young Gon; Shin, Yu Seob

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: We prospectively investigated the relationship between newborn male circumcision (NMC) and second to fourth digit ratio with penile length. Methods: As participants for our study, we identified already circumcised young patients who visited our hospital for urological treatment. The age at which the circumcision had been done was assessed. The patients’ height and weight were measured. Second to fourth digit ratio was calculated by measuring the second and fourth digit lengths. The flaccid and erectile penile lengths were measured from the base of the penis to the tip of the glans in standing position. Results: A total of 248 patients were included in our study. In univariate analysis, height, second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were associated with erectile penile length. Among these variables, second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were significant predictive factors for erectile penile length in multivariate analysis. The subjects were divided into two groups, including 72 patients in the NMC group and 176 patients in the non-NMC group. No significant difference was found in height, weight, and second to fourth digit ratio between both groups. However, flaccid (p<0.001) and erectile (p=0.001) penile lengths were shorter in the NMC group than in the non-NMC group. Conclusions: Despite the small number of subjects, this study shows that NMC was associated with shorter penile length. Second to fourth digit ratio, flaccid penile length, and age of circumcision were also significant predictive factors for erectile penile length. Further multicentre studies with larger number of subjects and biochemical analyses are needed for potential clinical applicability. PMID:27695583

  18. Scientific consensus and climate change: the codification of a global research agenda

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 'scientific consensus' which influenced the Framework Convention on Climate Change was carefully drafted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) between 1988 and 1992. In spite of it, there have been divergent national responses and policy controversy continues. The willingness of States to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases appears to be declining. An explanation for this is proposed which stresses the question of whether the nature of the scientific advice as sought and given bears some responsibility for the weak policy response. Institutional and personality factors in the formulation of IPCC advice are explored, as is the policy model upon which advice was given. It is concluded that this model is intrinsically unable to generate decisive environmental policy, but rather invites the institutions of the natural sciences and macro-economics to endow their research agendas with claims to policy relevance through the production of future 'findings'. (Author)

  19. New climate change report turns up the heat on energy policymakers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Any doubts about the role of nuclear power in fighting the damaging effects of climate change should be dispelled once and for all by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The key findings of the IPCC's so-called 'Synthesis Report', published in November 2014, said that if left unchecked, climate change ''will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems''. The Synthesis Report, which brought together the findings of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report produced by more than 800 scientists and released over more than one year, noted that multiple mitigation pathways are available that could limit warming to below 2 C relative to pre-industrial levels, all of which would need substantial cuts in emissions reductions over the coming few decades and near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) by the end of the century. As 2014 draws to a close, perhaps those with the power to effect energy policy change will take time to reflect on the mounting evidence of what is good, and what is not good, in terms of balancing the world's energy needs with the planet's overall health.

  20. High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.

  1. ATZ (3-amino-1,2,4-triazole injected into the fourth cerebral ventricle influences the Bezold-Jarisch reflex in conscious rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor E. Valenti

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Many studies have investigated the importance of oxidative stress on the cardiovascular system. In this study we evaluated the effects of central catalase inhibition on cardiopulmonary reflex in conscious Wistar rats. METHODS: Male Wistar rats were implanted with a stainless steel guide cannula in the fourth cerebral ventricle. The femoral artery and vein were cannulated for mean arterial pressure and heart rate measurement and for drug infusion, respectively. After basal mean arterial pressure and heart rate recordings, the cardiopulmonary reflex was tested with a dose of phenylbiguanide (PBG, 8 μg/kg, bolus. Cardiopulmonary reflex was evaluated before and μl15 minutes after 1.0 μl 3-amino-1,2,4-triazole (ATZ, 0.01g/100μl0.01 g/100 μl injection into the fourth cerebral ventricle. Vehicle treatment did not change cardiopulmonary reflex responses. RESULTS: Central ATZ significantly increased hypotensive responses without influencing the bradycardic reflex. CONCLUSION: ATZ injected into the fourth cerebral ventricle increases sympathetic inhibition but does not change the parasympathetic component of the cardiopulmonary reflex in conscious Wistar rats.

  2. PREFACE: Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadoni, Mariano; Cavaglia, Marco; Nelson, Jeanette E.

    2006-04-01

    The formulation of a quantum theory of gravity seems to be the unavoidable endpoint of modern theoretical physics. Yet the quantum description of the gravitational field remains elusive. The year 2005 marks the tenth anniversary of the First Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity, held in Dubna (Russia) due to the efforts of Alexandre T. Filippov (JINR, Dubna) and Vittorio de Alfaro (University of Torino, Italy). At the heart of this initiative was the desire for an international forum where the status and perspectives of research in quantum gravity could be discussed from the broader viewpoint of modern gauge field theories. Since the Dubna meeting, an increasing number of scientists has joined this quest. Progress was reported in two other conferences in this series: in Santa Margherita Ligure (Italy) in 1996 and in Villasimius (Sardinia, Italy) in 1999. After a few years of ``working silence'' the time was now mature for a new gathering. The Fourth Meeting on Constrained Dynamics and Quantum Gravity (QG05) was held in Cala Gonone (Sardinia, Italy) from Monday 12th to Friday 16th September 2005. Surrounded by beautiful scenery, 100 scientists from 23 countries working in field theory, general relativity and related areas discussed the latest developments in the quantum treatment of gravitational systems. The QG05 edition covered many of the issues that had been addressed in the previous meetings and new interesting developments in the field, such as brane world models, large extra dimensions, analogue models of gravity, non-commutative techniques etc. The format of the meeting was similar to the previous ones. The programme consisted of invited plenary talks and parallel sessions on cosmology, quantum gravity, strings and phenomenology, gauge theories and quantisation and black holes. A major goal was to bring together senior scientists and younger people at the beginning of their scientific career. We were able to give financial support to both

  3. Discussion about"The Fourth Industry Revolution"%关于“第四次工业革命”的探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张海平

    2014-01-01

    介绍笔者在德国2013汉诺威工业博览会上所了解到的一些关于“第四次工业革命”的最新信息,包括:“第四次工业革命”的概念、特点,以及可能导致在工业的变革和对未来工业的影响。%This paper introduced the discussion about"The Fourth Industry Revolution", which the author read dur-ing the Hannover Messe 2013. And it includes the ideal, features of"The Fourth Industry Revolution". Moreover, some changes and influences over future industry were also proposed in this paper.

  4. Significant reductions in oil quality and lipid content of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Namazkar, Shahla; Egsgaard, Helge; Frenck, Georg;

    Despite of the potential importance to food and bioenergy purposes effects from climate change on plant oil quality have hardly been characterized. Worldwide Brassica napus, rapeseed or oilseed rape, is the second largest source of vegetable oil and the predominant oil crop in Europe. We found...... significant changes in oil quality and quantity of cultivars of oilseed rape grown in five future climate scenarios with elevated [CO2], [O3], temperature and combinations hereof (~RCP8.5, IPCC 2013)....

  5. Choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle: Review and anatomic study highlighting anatomical variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tubbs, R Shane; Shoja, Mohammadali M; Aggarwal, Anjali; Gupta, Tulika; Loukas, Marios; Sahni, Daisy; Ansari, Shaheryar F; Cohen-Gadol, Aaron A

    2016-04-01

    Relatively few studies have been performed that analyze the morphology of the choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle. Due to the importance of this tissue as a landmark on imaging and during surgical intervention of the fourth ventricle, the authors performed a cadaveric study to better characterize this important structure. The choroid plexus of the fourth ventricle of 60 formalin fixed adult human brains was examined and measured. The horizontal distance from the midline to the lateral most point of the protruding tip of the horizontal limbs was measured. In the majority of the 60 brain specimens, right and left horizontal limbs of the choroid plexus were seen extending from the midline and protruding out of their respective lateral apertures of the fourth ventricle and into the subarachnoid space. However, on 3.3% of sides, there was absence of an extension into the foramen of Luschka and in one specimen, this lack of extension into the foramen of Luschka was bilateral. On two sides, there was discontinuity between the midline choroid plexus and the tuft of choroid just outside the foramen of Luschka. For specimens in which the choroid plexus did protrude through the foramen of Luschka (96.7%), these tufts were located anterior to the flocculus and inferolateral to the facial/vestibulocochlear nerve complex and posterosuperior to the glossopharyngeal/vagal/accessory complex. A thorough understanding of the normal and variant anatomy of the fourth ventricular choroid plexus is necessary for those who operate in, or interpret imaging of, this region.

  6. Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, Levi D.; Kiang, Julie E.; Olsen, J. Rolf; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Raff, David A.; Turnipseed, D. Phil; Webb, Robert S.; White, Kathleen D.

    2009-01-01

    Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

  7. Ocean bottom pressure changes lead to a decreasing length-of-day in a warming climate

    OpenAIRE

    F. Landerer; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

    2007-01-01

    We use a coupled climate model to evaluate ocean bottom pressure changes in the IPCC-A1B climate scenario. Ocean warming in the 21st and 22nd centuries causes secular oceanic bottom pressure anomalies. The essential feature is a net mass transfer onto shallow shelf areas from the deeper ocean areas, which exhibit negative bottom pressure anomalies. We develop a simple mass redistribution model that explains this mechanism. Regionally, however, distinct patterns of bottom pressure anomalies em...

  8. Quarterly environmental radiological survey summary -- fourth quarter 1997: 100, 200, 300, and 600 areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKinney, S.M.

    1998-01-27

    Routine radiological surveys are part of near-facility environmental monitoring which monitors and helps direct the reduction of the radiological areas at the Hanford Site. The routine radiological surveys are performed by the Southern Area Remediation Support Group and the Site Support Services Radiological Control Group as directed by Environmental Monitoring and Investigations. The surveys performed have included inactive waste sites; outdoor radiological control areas; tank farm perimeters and associated diversion boxes, lift stations, and vent stations; perimeters of active or uncovered waste sites such as burial grounds, retention basins, ponds, process trenches, and ditches; underground pipelines; and road and rail surfaces. This report provides a synopsis of the radiological surveys performed in support of near-facility environmental monitoring at the Hanford Site during calendar year 1997. The Fourth Quarter 1997 survey results and the status of actions required are also discussed. A waste site survey schedule, Routine Environmental Monitoring Schedule Calendar Year 1997, WHC-SP-0098-8, was developed by Environmental Monitoring and Investigations and reviewed by the Southern Area Remediation Support Group and the Site Support Services Radiological Control Group. Environmental Monitoring and Investigations reviews the radiological survey reports and files a copy for historical purposes and reference. Radiological conditions are tracked and trends noted. All sites are surveyed at least once each year. The survey frequencies for particular sites are based on site history, radiological conditions, and general maintenance. Special surveys may be conducted at irregular frequencies if conditions warrant (e.g., growth of deep-rooted vegetation is noted at a waste site). Radiological surveys are conducted to detect surface contamination and document changes in vegetation growth, biological intrusion, erosion, and general site maintenance conditions. Survey data are

  9. Fourth-Order Contour Mode ZnO-on-SOI Disk Resonators for Mass Sensing Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Rivera

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we have investigated the design, fabrication and testing of ZnO-on-SOI fourth-order contour mode disk resonators for mass sensing applications. This study aims to unveil the possibility for real-time practical mass sensing applications by using high-Q ZnO-on-SOI contour-mode resonators while taking into account their unique modal characteristics. Through focused ion beam (FIB direct-write metal deposition techniques, the effects of localized mass loading on the surface of three extensional mode devices have been investigated. Ten microfabricated 40 mm-radius disk resonators, which all have a 20 mm-thick silicon device layer and 1 mm-thick ZnO transducer layer but varied anchor widths and numbers, have exhibited resonant frequencies ranging from 84.9 MHz to 86.7 MHz with Q factors exceeding 6000 (in air and 10,000 (in vacuum, respectively. It has been found that the added mass at the nodal locations leads to noticeable Q-factor degradation along with lower induced frequency drift, thereby resulting in reduced mass sensitivity. All three measured devices have shown a mass sensitivity of ~1.17 Hz·fg−1 at the maximum displacement points with less than 33.3 ppm of deviation in term of fractional frequency change. This mass sensitivity is significantly higher than 0.334 Hz·fg−1 at the nodal points. Moreover, the limit of detection (LOD for this resonant mass sensor was determined to be 367 ag and 1290 ag (1 ag = 10−18 g for loaded mass at the maximum and minimum displacement points, accordingly.

  10. Radiologic-pathologic Correlation-An Advanced Fourth-year Elective: How We Do It.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Matthew; Silverman, Jan; Spruill, Laura; Hill, Jeanne

    2016-07-01

    Traditionally, the radiology elective has been designed to teach medical students the fundamentals of radiologic interpretation. When questioned, many students state that they want to take a radiology elective so they can "interpret images." For the students on radiology, rotation/elective education was often passive, consisting of didactic conferences and observational shadowing of radiologists as they interpreted images. Students had only a superficial appreciation of how radiologists interacted with clinical services, multidisciplinary teams, and pathology. There was very little emphasis on imaging appropriateness or the most efficient and effective imaging for various clinical problems. With the expansion of numerous imaging modalities and the emphasis on patient-centered care, including imaging safety and dose reduction, it is important to change the focus of radiology education from interpretation to the optimal integration of imaging into clinical medicine. Radiology-pathology (rad path) electives were created at Allegheny General Hospital and the Medical University of South Carolina as a new option to provide a high-quality advanced elective for fourth-year medical students. These electives enable students to correlate radiologic images with gross and microscopic pathology specimens, thus increasing their knowledge and understanding of both. The rad path elective combines aspects of surgery, radiology, and pathology and requires students to be active learners. The implementation of this elective is an exciting work in progress that has been evolving over the past 2 and 4 years at Medical University of South Carolina and Allegheny General Hospital, respectively. We will discuss the historical basis for the elective, the advantages and challenges of having such an integrated course, and some different strategies for creating a rad path elective. PMID:27311804

  11. Radiologic-pathologic Correlation-An Advanced Fourth-year Elective: How We Do It.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Matthew; Silverman, Jan; Spruill, Laura; Hill, Jeanne

    2016-07-01

    Traditionally, the radiology elective has been designed to teach medical students the fundamentals of radiologic interpretation. When questioned, many students state that they want to take a radiology elective so they can "interpret images." For the students on radiology, rotation/elective education was often passive, consisting of didactic conferences and observational shadowing of radiologists as they interpreted images. Students had only a superficial appreciation of how radiologists interacted with clinical services, multidisciplinary teams, and pathology. There was very little emphasis on imaging appropriateness or the most efficient and effective imaging for various clinical problems. With the expansion of numerous imaging modalities and the emphasis on patient-centered care, including imaging safety and dose reduction, it is important to change the focus of radiology education from interpretation to the optimal integration of imaging into clinical medicine. Radiology-pathology (rad path) electives were created at Allegheny General Hospital and the Medical University of South Carolina as a new option to provide a high-quality advanced elective for fourth-year medical students. These electives enable students to correlate radiologic images with gross and microscopic pathology specimens, thus increasing their knowledge and understanding of both. The rad path elective combines aspects of surgery, radiology, and pathology and requires students to be active learners. The implementation of this elective is an exciting work in progress that has been evolving over the past 2 and 4 years at Medical University of South Carolina and Allegheny General Hospital, respectively. We will discuss the historical basis for the elective, the advantages and challenges of having such an integrated course, and some different strategies for creating a rad path elective.

  12. Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011–2030 period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Jaczewski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The regional climate model RegCM3 is used to investigate potential future changes of temperature indices in Poland for the period 2011–2030. The model is forced by ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM data from World Data Centre (WDCC database for the 1971–1990 reference period and 2011–2030 projection period under SRES B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios. Model output statistics methods are used to transform simulated minimum and maximum temperature data into realistic data. Selected indices of temperature extremes and their differences between the scenario simulations and the reference were calculated, for all scenarios, for the entire period and for each season. Results show a mean yearly increase in the number of summer and hot days and a decrease in the number of frost and ice days. Highest decline in the number of frost and ice days in autumn and an increase in spring is noticed. An highest increase in the number of summer and hot days is seen in summer. Future projections of these indices are relevant for studies on climate change impact in agriculture, tourism, health, transportation, road and building infrastructure.

  13. Global climate change and cryospheric evolution in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin D.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Major outcomes of Working Group I, IPCC AR4 (2007, as well as the recent understandings from our regional climatic assessments in China were summarized. Changes of cryosphere in China, one of the major components in regional climate system, is specifically reviewed. Under the global/regional warming, all components of cryosphere in China (Tibetan Plateau and surroundings including glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost and snow cover show rapid decay in the last decades. These changes have big socioeconomic impacts in west China, thus encourages both government and scientists pay more and more attention to this field.

  14. Anticipated changes in the Nordic seas marine climate

    OpenAIRE

    Furevik, Tore; Drange, Helge; Sorteberg, Asgeir

    2002-01-01

    Possible future changes in the Nordic Seas marine climate are here discussed. The wide range of climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predict a global mean temperature increase between 1- 6ºC by the end of this century, with the estimates using the intermediate IPCC B2 scenario being in the range 1.9-3.4ºC. For climate models forced by a 1percent per year CO2 increase only, the so-called CMIP2 integrations, the increase in temperatures is close to 2º...

  15. Living with poverty and climate change – a study on vulnerability to climate-related shocks on household level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Kristian Thor

    , especially at high altitudes. As an effect of these increased risks, humanitarian disasters caused by weather-related shocks are likely to increase in both number and severity. In that sense, it is vital to understand how people living in disaster-prone areas are handling such changes, and how the risk......Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that likely increases in the frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems (IPCC, 2007). Thus, the risk of suffering from an extreme weather...... addressing the environmental risks alone, but instead explores options that could assist households in achieving persistent welfare gains, no matter whether the expected outcomes of climate change in terms of extreme weather events are realized or not. In doing so, this thesis represents an effort...

  16. Fourth-order partial differential equation noise removal on welding images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Partial differential equation (PDE) has become one of the important topics in mathematics and is widely used in various fields. It can be used for image denoising in the image analysis field. In this paper, a fourth-order PDE is discussed and implemented as a denoising method on digital images. The fourth-order PDE is solved computationally using finite difference approach and then implemented on a set of digital radiographic images with welding defects. The performance of the discretized model is evaluated using Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR). Simulation is carried out on the discretized model on different level of Gaussian noise in order to get the maximum PSNR value. The convergence criteria chosen to determine the number of iterations required is measured based on the highest PSNR value. Results obtained show that the fourth-order PDE model produced promising results as an image denoising tool compared with median filter

  17. Constraining a fourth generation of quarks: non-perturbative Higgs boson mass bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Bulava, John; Nagy, Attila

    2013-01-01

    We present a non-perturbative determination of the upper and lower Higgs boson mass bounds with a heavy fourth generation of quarks from numerical lattice computations in a chirally symmetric Higgs-Yukawa model. We find that the upper bound only moderately rises with the quark mass while the lower bound increases significantly, providing additional constraints on the existence of a straight-forward fourth quark generation. We examine the stability of the lower bound under the addition of a higher dimensional operator to the scalar field potential using perturbation theory, demonstrating that it is not significantly altered for small values of the coupling of this operator. For a Higgs boson mass of $\\sim125\\mathrm{GeV}$ we find that the maximum value of the fourth generation quark mass is $\\sim300\\mathrm{GeV}$, which is already in conflict with bounds from direct searches.

  18. Blasius flow and heat transfer of fourth-grade fluid with slip

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    B SAHOO; S PONCET

    2013-01-01

    This investigation deals with the effects of slip, magnetic field, and non-Newtonian flow parameters on the flow and heat transfer of an incompressible, electrically conducting fourth-grade fluid past an infinite porous plate. The heat transfer analysis is carried out for two heating processes. The system of highly non-linear differential equations is solved by the shooting method with the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method for moderate values of the parameters. The effective Broyden technique is adopted in order to improve the initial guesses and to satisfy the boundary conditions at infinity. An exceptional cross-over is obtained in the velocity profile in the presence of slip. The fourth-grade fluid parameter is found to increase the momentum boundary layer thickness, whereas the slip parameter substantially decreases it. Similarly, the non-Newtonian fluid parameters and the slip have opposite effects on the thermal boundary layer thickness.

  19. The Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. Fourth quarter, 1989

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-12-31

    The Environmental Monitoring Section of the Environmental and Health Protection (EHP) Department administers the Savannah River Site`s Groundwater Monitoring Program. During fourth quarter 1989 (October--December), EHP conducted routine sampling of monitoring wells and drinking water locations. EHP collected the drinking water samples from Savannah River Site (SRS) drinking water systems supplied by wells. EHP established two sets of flagging criteria in 1986 to assist in the management of sample results. The flagging criteria aid personnel in sample scheduling, interpretation of data, and trend identification. An explanation of flagging criteria for the fourth quarter is presented in the Flagging Criteria section of this document. All analytical results from fourth quarter 1989 are listed in this report, which is distributed to all waste-site custodians.

  20. Fourth Ventricular Schwannoma: Identical Clinicopathologic Features as Schwann Cell-Derived Schwannoma with Unique Etiopathologic Origins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiffany R. Hodges

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. To our knowledge, this is the sixth reported case in the literature of fourth ventricular schwannoma. The etiology and natural history of intraventricular schwannomas is not well understood. A thorough review of potential etiopathogenic mechanisms is provided in this case report. Case Description. A 69-year-old man presented with an incidentally found fourth ventricular tumor during an evaluation for generalized weakness, gait instability, and memory disturbance. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI revealed a heterogeneously enhancing lesion in the fourth ventricle. A suboccipital craniotomy was performed to resect the lesion. Histopathological examination confirmed the diagnosis of schwannoma (WHO grade I. Conclusions. Schwannomas should be considered in the differential diagnosis of intraventricular tumors. Although the embryologic origins may be different from nerve sheath-derived schwannomas, the histologic, clinical, and natural history appear identical and thus should be managed similarly.